Implementing the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) in a general circulation model: Methodologies and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sato, N.; Sellers, P. J.; Randall, D. A.; Schneider, E. K.; Shukla, J.; Kinter, J. L., III; Hou, Y.-T.; Albertazzi, E.

1989-01-01

The Simple Biosphere MOdel (SiB) of Sellers et al., (1986) was designed to simulate the interactions between the Earth's land surface and the atmosphere by treating the vegetation explicitly and relistically, thereby incorporating biophysical controls on the exchanges of radiation, momentum, sensible and latent heat between the two systems. The steps taken to implement SiB in a modified version of the National Meteorological Center's spectral GCM are described. The coupled model (SiB-GCM) was used with a conventional hydrological model (Ctl-GCM) to produce summer and winter simulations. The same GCM was used with a conventional hydrological model (Ctl-GCM) to produce comparable 'control' summer and winter variations. It was found that SiB-GCM produced a more realistic partitioning of energy at the land surface than Ctl-GCM. Generally, SiB-GCM produced more sensible heat flux and less latent heat flux over vegetated land than did Ctl-GCM and this resulted in the development of a much deeper daytime planetary boundary and reduced precipitation rates over the continents in SiB-GCM. In the summer simulation, the 200 mb jet stream and the wind speed at 850 mb were slightly weakened in the SiB-GCM relative to the Ctl-GCM results and equivalent analyses from observations.

Calibrating the ECCO ocean general circulation model using Green's functions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menemenlis, D.; Fu, L. L.; Lee, T.; Fukumori, I.

2002-01-01

Green's functions provide a simple, yet effective, method to test and calibrate General-Circulation-Model(GCM) parameterizations, to study and quantify model and data errors, to correct model biases and trends, and to blend estimates from different solutions and data products.

A Vertically Resolved Planetary Boundary Layer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helfand, H. M.

1984-01-01

Increase of the vertical resolution of the GLAS Fourth Order General Circulation Model (GCM) near the Earth's surface and installation of a new package of parameterization schemes for subgrid-scale physical processes were sought so that the GLAS Model GCM will predict the resolved vertical structure of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) for all grid points.

Circulation and rainfall climatology of a 10-year (1979 - 1988) integration with the Goddard Laboratory for atmospheres general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, J.-H.; Sud, Y. C.

1993-01-01

A 10-year (1979-1988) integration of Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) under Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) is analyzed and compared with observation. The first momentum fields of circulation variables and also hydrological variables including precipitation, evaporation, and soil moisture are presented. Our goals are (1) to produce a benchmark documentation of the GLA GCM for future model improvements; (2) to examine systematic errors between the simulated and the observed circulation, precipitation, and hydrologic cycle; (3) to examine the interannual variability of the simulated atmosphere and compare it with observation; and (4) to examine the ability of the model to capture the major climate anomalies in response to events such as El Nino and La Nina. The 10-year mean seasonal and annual simulated circulation is quite reasonable compared to the analyzed circulation, except the polar regions and area of high orography. Precipitation over tropics are quite well simulated, and the signal of El Nino/La Nina episodes can be easily identified. The time series of evaporation and soil moisture in the 12 biomes of the biosphere also show reasonable patterns compared to the estimated evaporation and soil moisture.

Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model, revision 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Covey, Curt; Ghan, Steven J.; Walton, John J.; Weissman, Paul R.

1989-01-01

Interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet would lead to substantial land surface cooling, according to our three-dimensional atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This result is qualitatively similar to conclusions drawn from an earlier study that employed a one-dimensional atmospheric model, but in the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans substantially mitigates land surface cooling, an effect that one-dimensional models cannot quantify. On the other hand, the low heat capacity of the GCM's land surface allows temperatures to drop more rapidly in the initial stage of cooling than in the one-dimensional model study. These two differences between three-dimensional and one-dimensional model simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM-simulated climatic changes in the Alvarez-inspired scenario of asteroid/comet winter, however, are more severe than in nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on earth. Impacts of smaller objects could also lead to dramatic, though less severe, climatic changes, according to our GCM. Our conclusion is that it is difficult to imagine an asteroid or comet impact leading to anything approaching complete global freezing, but quite reasonable to assume that impacts at the Alvarez level, or even smaller, dramatically alter the climate in at least a patchy sense.

Upper Atmospheric Response to the April 2010 Storm as Observed by GOCE, CHAMP, and GRACE and Modeled by TIME-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagan, Maura; Häusler, Kathrin; Lu, Gang; Forbes, Jeffrey; Zhang, Xiaoli; Doornbos, Eelco; Bruinsma, Sean

2014-05-01

We present the results of an investigation of the upper atmosphere during April 2010 when it was disturbed by a fast-moving coronal mass ejection. Our study is based on comparative analysis of observations made by the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE), Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP), and Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites and a set of simulations with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM). We compare and contrast the satellite observations with TIME-GCM results from a realistic simulation based on prevailing meteorological and solar geomagnetic conditions. We diagnose the comparative importance of the upper atmospheric signatures attributable to meteorological forcing with those attributable to storm effects by diagnosing a series of complementary control TIME-GCM simulations. These results also quantify the extent to which lower and middle atmospheric sources of upper atmospheric variability precondition its response to the solar geomagnetic storm.

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crane, Robert G.; Hewitson, Bruce

1990-01-01

Model simulations of global climate change are seen as an essential component of any program aimed at understanding human impact on the global environment. A major weakness of current general circulation models (GCMs), however, is their inability to predict reliably the regional consequences of a global scale change, and it is these regional scale predictions that are necessary for studies of human/environmental response. This research is directed toward the development of a methodology for the validation of the synoptic scale climatology of GCMs. This is developed with regard to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM Model 2, with the specific objective of using the synoptic circulation form a doubles CO2 simulation to estimate regional climate change over North America, south of Hudson Bay. This progress report is specifically concerned with validating the synoptic climatology of the GISS GCM, and developing the transfer function to derive grid-point temperatures from the synoptic circulation. Principal Components Analysis is used to characterize the primary modes of the spatial and temporal variability in the observed and simulated climate, and the model validation is based on correlations between component loadings, and power spectral analysis of the component scores. The results show that the high resolution GISS model does an excellent job of simulating the synoptic circulation over the U.S., and that grid-point temperatures can be predicted with reasonable accuracy from the circulation patterns.

A generalized conditional heteroscedastic model for temperature downscaling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

2014-11-01

This study describes a method for deriving the time varying second order moment, or heteroscedasticity, of local daily temperature and its association to large Coupled Canadian General Circulation Models predictors. This is carried out by applying a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) approach to construct the conditional variance-covariance structure between General Circulation Models (GCMs) predictors and maximum and minimum temperature time series during 1980-2000. Two MGARCH specifications namely diagonal VECH and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) are applied and 25 GCM predictors were selected for a bivariate temperature heteroscedastic modeling. It is observed that the conditional covariance between predictors and temperature is not very strong and mostly depends on the interaction between the random process governing temporal variation of predictors and predictants. The DCC model reveals a time varying conditional correlation between GCM predictors and temperature time series. No remarkable increasing or decreasing change is observed for correlation coefficients between GCM predictors and observed temperature during 1980-2000 while weak winter-summer seasonality is clear for both conditional covariance and correlation. Furthermore, the stationarity and nonlinearity Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) and Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) tests showed that GCM predictors, temperature and their conditional correlation time series are nonlinear but stationary during 1980-2000 according to BDS and KPSS test results. However, the degree of nonlinearity of temperature time series is higher than most of the GCM predictors.

Seasonal simulations of the planetary boundary layer and boundary-layer stratocumulus clouds with a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randall, D. A.; Abeles, J. A.; Corsetti, T. G.

1985-01-01

The formulation of the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and stratocumulus parametrizations in the UCLA general circulation model (GCM) are briefly summarized, and extensive new results are presented illustrating some aspects of the simulated seasonal changes of the global distributions of PBL depth, stratocumulus cloudiness, cloud-top entrainment instability, the cumulus mass flux, and related fields. Results from three experiments designed to reveal the sensitivity of the GCM results to aspects of the PBL and stratocumulus parametrizations are presented. The GCM results show that the layer cloud instability appears to limit the extent of the marine subtropical stratocumulus regimes, and that instability frequently occurs in association with cumulus convection over land. Cumulus convection acts as a very significant sink of PBL mass throughout the tropics and over the midlatitude continents in winter.

The implementation and validation of improved landsurface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Kevin D.; Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

1991-01-01

Landsurface hydrological parameterizations are implemented in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM). These parameterizations are: (1) runoff and evapotranspiration functions that include the effects of subgrid scale spatial variability and use physically based equations of hydrologic flux at the soil surface, and (2) a realistic soil moisture diffusion scheme for the movement of water in the soil column. A one dimensional climate model with a complete hydrologic cycle is used to screen the basic sensitivities of the hydrological parameterizations before implementation into the full three dimensional GCM. Results of the final simulation with the GISS GCM and the new landsurface hydrology indicate that the runoff rate, especially in the tropics is significantly improved. As a result, the remaining components of the heat and moisture balance show comparable improvements when compared to observations. The validation of model results is carried from the large global (ocean and landsurface) scale, to the zonal, continental, and finally the finer river basin scales.

On Simulating the Mid-western-us Drought of 1988 with a GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Y. C.; Mocko, D. M.; Lau, William K.-M.; Atlas, R.

2002-01-01

The primary cause of the midwestern North American drought in the summer of 1988 has been identified to be the La Nina SST anomalies. Yet with the SST anomalies prescribed, this drought has not been simulated satisfactorily by any general circulation model. Seven simulation-experiments, each containing an ensemble of 4-sets of simulations, were conducted with the GEOS GCM for both 1987 and 1988. All simulations started from January 1 and continued through the end of August. In the first baseline case, Case 1, only the SST anomalies and some vegetation parameters were prescribed, while everything else (such as soil moisture, snow-cover, and clouds) was interactive. The GCM did produce some of the circulation features of a drought over North America, but they could only be identified on the planetary scales. The 1988 minus 1987 precipitation differences show that the GCM was successful in simulating reduced precipitation in the mid-west, but the accompanying circulation anomalies were not well simulated, leading one to infer that the GCM has simulated the drought for the wrong reason. To isolate the causes for this unremarkable circulation, analyzed winds and soil moisture were prescribed in Case 2 and Case 3 as continuous updates by direct replacement of the GCM-predicted fields. These cases show that a large number of simulation biases emanate from wind biases that are carried into the North American region from surroundings regions. Inclusion of soil moisture also helps to ameliorate the strong feedback, perhaps even stronger than that of the real atmosphere, between soil moisture and precipitation. Case 2 simulated one type of surface temperature anomaly pattern, whereas Case 3 with the prescribed soil moisture produced another.

Tracer water transport and subgrid precipitation variation within atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koster, Randal D.; Eagleson, Peter S.; Broecker, Wallace S.

1988-03-01

A capability is developed for monitoring tracer water movement in the three-dimensional Goddard Institute for Space Science Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM). A typical experiment with the tracer water model follows water evaporating from selected grid squares and determines where this water first returns to the Earth's surface as precipitation or condensate, thereby providing information on the lateral scales of hydrological transport in the GCM. Through a comparison of model results with observations in nature, inferences can be drawn concerning real world water transport. Tests of the tracer water model include a comparison of simulated and observed vertically-integrated vapor flux fields and simulations of atomic tritium transport from the stratosphere to the oceans. The inter-annual variability of the tracer water model results is also examined.

Tracer water transport and subgrid precipitation variation within atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Eagleson, Peter S.; Broecker, Wallace S.

1988-01-01

A capability is developed for monitoring tracer water movement in the three-dimensional Goddard Institute for Space Science Atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM). A typical experiment with the tracer water model follows water evaporating from selected grid squares and determines where this water first returns to the Earth's surface as precipitation or condensate, thereby providing information on the lateral scales of hydrological transport in the GCM. Through a comparison of model results with observations in nature, inferences can be drawn concerning real world water transport. Tests of the tracer water model include a comparison of simulated and observed vertically-integrated vapor flux fields and simulations of atomic tritium transport from the stratosphere to the oceans. The inter-annual variability of the tracer water model results is also examined.

The quasi 2 day wave response in TIME-GCM nudged with NOGAPS-ALPHA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jack C.; Chang, Loren C.; Yue, Jia; Wang, Wenbin; Siskind, D. E.

2017-05-01

The quasi 2 day wave (QTDW) is a traveling planetary wave that can be enhanced rapidly to large amplitudes in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) region during the northern winter postsolstice period. In this study, we present five case studies of QTDW events during January and February 2005, 2006 and 2008-2010 by using the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Electrodynamics-General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) nudged with the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System-Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (NOGAPS-ALPHA) Weather Forecast Model. With NOGAPS-ALPHA introducing more realistic lower atmospheric forcing in TIME-GCM, the QTDW events have successfully been reproduced in the TIME-GCM. The nudged TIME-GCM simulations show good agreement in zonal mean state with the NOGAPS-ALPHA 6 h reanalysis data and the horizontal wind model below the mesopause; however, it has large discrepancies in the tropics above the mesopause. The zonal mean zonal wind in the mesosphere has sharp vertical gradients in the nudged TIME-GCM. The results suggest that the parameterized gravity wave forcing may need to be retuned in the assimilative TIME-GCM.

A senstitivity study of the ground hydrologic model using data generated by an atmospheric general circulation model. Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sun, S. F.

1985-01-01

The Ground Hydrologic Model (GHM) developed for use in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) has been refined. A series of sensitivity studies of the new version of the GHM were conducted for the purpose of understanding the role played by various physical parameters in the GHM. The following refinements have been made: (1) the GHM is coupled directly with the planetary boundary layer (PBL); (2) a bulk vegetation layer is added with a more realistic large-scale parameterization; and (3) the infiltration rate is modified. This version GHM has been tested using input data derived from a GCM simulation run for eight North America regions for 45 days. The results are compared with those of the resident GHM in the GCM. The daily average of grid surface temperatures from both models agree reasonably well in phase and magnitude. However, large difference exists in one or two regions on some days. The daily average evapotranspiration is in general 10 to 30% less than the corresponding value given by the resident GHM.

Applications and Improvement of a Coupled, Global and Cloud-Resolving Modeling System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.-K.; Chern, J.; Atlas, R.

2005-01-01

Recently Grabowski (2001) and Khairoutdinov and Randall (2001) have proposed the use of 2D CFWs as a "super parameterization" [or multi-scale modeling framework (MMF)] to represent cloud processes within atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). In the MMF, a fine-resolution 2D CRM takes the place of the single-column parameterization used in conventional GCMs. A prototype Goddard MMF based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM) is now being developed. The prototype includes the fvGCM run at 2.50 x 20 horizontal resolution with 32 vertical layers from the surface to 1 mb and the 2D (x-z) GCE using 64 horizontal and 32 vertical grid points with 4 km horizontal resolution and a cyclic lateral boundary. The time step for the 2D GCE would be 15 seconds, and the fvGCM-GCE coupling frequency would be 30 minutes (i.e. the fvGCM physical time step). We have successfully developed an fvGCM-GCE coupler for this prototype. Because the vertical coordinate of the fvGCM (a terrain-following floating Lagrangian coordinate) is different from that of the GCE (a z coordinate), vertical interpolations between the two coordinates are needed in the coupler. In interpolating fields from the GCE to fvGCM, we use an existing fvGCM finite- volume piecewise parabolic mapping (PPM) algorithm, which conserves the mass, momentum, and total energy. A new finite-volume PPM algorithm, which conserves the mass, momentum and moist static energy in the z coordinate, is being developed for interpolating fields from the fvGCM to the GCE. In the meeting, we will discuss the major differences between the two MMFs (i.e., the CSU MMF and the Goddard MMF). We will also present performance and critical issues related to the MMFs. In addition, we will present multi-dimensional cloud datasets (i.e., a cloud data library) generated by the Goddard MMF that will be provided to the global modeling community to help improve the representation and performance of moist processes in climate models and to improve our understanding of cloud processes globally (the software tools needed to produce cloud statistics and to identify various types of clouds and cloud systems from both high-resolution satellite and model data will be also presented).

The implementation and validation of improved land-surface hydrology in an atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Kevin D.; Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

1993-01-01

New land-surface hydrologic parameterizations are implemented into the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) General Circulation Model (GCM). These parameterizations are: 1) runoff and evapotranspiration functions that include the effects of subgrid-scale spatial variability and use physically based equations of hydrologic flux at the soil surface and 2) a realistic soil moisture diffusion scheme for the movement of water and root sink in the soil column. A one-dimensional climate model with a complete hydrologic cycle is used to screen the basic sensitivities of the hydrological parameterizations before implementation into the full three-dimensional GCM. Results of the final simulation with the GISS GCM and the new land-surface hydrology indicate that the runoff rate, especially in the tropics, is significantly improved. As a result, the remaining components of the heat and moisture balance show similar improvements when compared to observations. The validation of model results is carried from the large global (ocean and land-surface) scale to the zonal, continental, and finally the regional river basin scales.

Atmospheric, Climatic, and Environmental Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Broecker, Wallace S.; Gornitz, Vivien M.

1994-01-01

The climate and atmospheric modeling project involves analysis of basic climate processes, with special emphasis on studies of the atmospheric CO2 and H2O source/sink budgets and studies of the climatic role Of CO2, trace gases and aerosols. These studies are carried out, based in part on use of simplified climate models and climate process models developed at GISS. The principal models currently employed are a variable resolution 3-D general circulation model (GCM), and an associated "tracer" model which simulates the advection of trace constituents using the winds generated by the GCM.

A new scheme for the parameterization of the turbulent planetary boundary layer in the GLAS fourth order GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helfand, H. M.

1985-01-01

Methods being used to increase the horizontal and vertical resolution and to implement more sophisticated parameterization schemes for general circulation models (GCM) run on newer, more powerful computers are described. Attention is focused on the NASA-Goddard Laboratory for Atmospherics fourth order GCM. A new planetary boundary layer (PBL) model has been developed which features explicit resolution of two or more layers. Numerical models are presented for parameterizing the turbulent vertical heat, momentum and moisture fluxes at the earth's surface and between the layers in the PBL model. An extended Monin-Obhukov similarity scheme is applied to express the relationships between the lowest levels of the GCM and the surface fluxes. On-line weather prediction experiments are to be run to test the effects of the higher resolution thereby obtained for dynamic atmospheric processes.

Comparisons Between TIME-GCM/MERRA Simulations and LEO Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hagan, M. E.; Haeusler, K.; Forbes, J. M.; Zhang, X.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Lu, G.

2014-12-01

We report on yearlong National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulations where we utilize the recently developed lower boundary condition based on 3-hourly MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application) reanalysis data to account for tropospheric waves and tides propagating upward into the model domain. The solar and geomagnetic forcing is based on prevailing geophysical conditions. The simulations show a strong day-to-day variability in the upper thermospheric neutral temperature tidal fields, which is smoothed out quickly when averaging is applied over several days, e.g. up to 50% DE3 amplitude reduction for a 10-day average. This is an important result with respect to tidal diagnostics from satellite observations where averaging over multiple days is inevitable. In order to assess TIME-GCM performance we compare the simulations with measurements from the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE), Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites.

Observational and Modeling Studies of Radiative, Chemical, and Dynamical Interactions in the Earth''s Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salby, Murry

1998-01-01

A 3-dimensional model was developed to support mechanistic studies. The model solves the global primitive equations in isentropic coordinates, which directly characterize diabatic processes forcing the Brewer-Dobson circulation of the middle atmosphere. It's numerical formulation is based on Hough harmonics, which partition horizontal motion into its rotational and divergent components. These computational features, along with others, enable 3D integrations to be performed practically on RISC computer architecture, on which they can be iterated to support mechanistic studies. The model conserves potential vorticity quite accurately under adiabatic conditions. Forced by observed tropospheric structure, in which integrations are anchored, the model generates a diabatic circulation that is consistent with satellite observations of tracer behavior and diabatic cooling rates. The model includes a basic but fairly complete treatment of gas-phase photochemistry that represents some 20 chemical species and 50 governing reactions with diurnally-varying shortwave absorption. The model thus provides a reliable framework to study transport and underlying diabatic processes, which can then be compared against chemical and dynamical structure observed and in GCM integrations. Integrations with the Langley GCM were performed to diagnose feedback between simulated convection and the tropical circulation. These were studied in relation to tropospheric properties controlling moisture convergence and environmental conditions supporting deep convection, for comparison against mechanistic integrations of wave CISK that successfully reproduce the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) of the tropical circulation. These comparisons were aimed at identifying and ultimately improving aspects of the convective simulation, with the objective of recovering a successful simulation of the MJO in the Langley GCM, behavior that should be important to budgets of upper-tropospheric water vapor and chemical species.

3D General Circulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere of Jupiter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zube, Nicholas Gerard; Zhang, Xi; Li, Cheng; Le, Tianhao

2017-10-01

The characteristics of Jupiter’s large-scale stratospheric circulation remain largely unknown. Detailed distributions of temperature and photochemical species have been provided by recent observations [1], but have not yet been accurately reproduced by middle atmosphere general circulation models (GCM). Jupiter’s stratosphere and upper troposphere are influenced by radiative forcing from solar insolation and infrared cooling from hydrogen and hydrocarbons, as well as waves propagating from the underlying troposphere [2]. The relative significance of radiative and mechanical forcing on stratospheric circulation is still being debated [3]. Here we present a 3D GCM of Jupiter’s atmosphere with a correlated-k radiative transfer scheme. The simulation results are compared with observations. We analyze the impact of model parameters on the stratospheric temperature distribution and dynamical features. Finally, we discuss future tracer transport and gravity wave parameterization schemes that may be able to accurately simulate the middle atmosphere dynamics of Jupiter and other giant planets.[1] Kunde et al. 2004, Science 305, 1582.[2] Zhang et al. 2013a, EGU General Assembly, EGU2013-5797-2.[3] Conrath 1990, Icarus, 83, 255-281.

The Response of a Spectral General Circulation Model to Refinements in Radiative Processes.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramanathan, V.; Pitcher, Eric J.; Malone, Robert C.; Blackmon, Maurice L.

1983-03-01

We present here results and analyses of a series of numerical experiments performed with a spectral general circulation model (GCM). The purpose of the GCM experiments is to examine the role of radiation/cloud processes in the general circulation of the troposphere and stratosphere. The experiments were primarily motivated by the significant improvements in the GCM zonal mean simulation as refinements were made in the model treatment of clear-sky radiation and cloud-radiative interactions. The GCM with the improved cloud/radiation model is able to reproduce many observed features, such as: a clear separation between the wintertime tropospheric jet and the polar night jet; winter polar stratospheric temperatures of about 200 K; interhemispheric and seasonal asymmetries in the zonal winds.In a set of sensitivity experiments, we have stripped the cloud/radiation model of its improvements, the result being a significant degradation of the zonal mean simulations by the GCM. Through these experiments we have been able to identify the processes that are responsible for the improved GCM simulations: (i) careful treatment of the upper boundary condition for O3 solar heating; (ii) temperature dependence of longwave cooling by CO2 15 m bands., (iii) vertical distribution of H2O that minimizes the lower stratospheric H2O longwave cooling; (iv) dependence of cirrus emissivity on cloud liquid water content.Comparison of the GCM simulations, with and without the cloud/radiation improvements, reveals the nature and magnitude of the following radiative-dynamical interactions: (i) the temperature decrease (due to errors in radiative heating) within the winter polar stratosphere is much larger than can be accounted for by purely radiative adjustment; (ii) the role of dynamics in maintaining the winter polar stratosphere thermal structure is greatly diminished in the GCM with the degraded treatment of radiation; (iii) the radiative and radiative-dynamical response times of the atmosphere vary from periods of less than two weeks in the lower troposphere to roughly three months in the polar lower stratosphere; (iv) within the stratosphere, the radiative response times vary significantly with temperature, with the winter polar values larger than the summer polar values by as much as a factor of 2.5.Cirrus clouds, if their emissivities are arbitrarily prescribed to be black, unrealistically enhance the radiative cooling of the polar troposphere above 8 km. This results in a meridional temperature gradient much stronger than that which is observed. We employ a more realistic parameterization that accounts for the non-blackness of cirrus, and we describe the resulting improvements in the model simulation of zonal winds, temperatures, and radiation budget.

A new dynamical downscaling approach with GCM bias corrections and spectral nudging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Zhongfeng; Yang, Zong-Liang

2015-04-01

To improve confidence in regional projections of future climate, a new dynamical downscaling (NDD) approach with both general circulation model (GCM) bias corrections and spectral nudging is developed and assessed over North America. GCM biases are corrected by adjusting GCM climatological means and variances based on reanalysis data before the GCM output is used to drive a regional climate model (RCM). Spectral nudging is also applied to constrain RCM-based biases. Three sets of RCM experiments are integrated over a 31 year period. In the first set of experiments, the model configurations are identical except that the initial and lateral boundary conditions are derived from either the original GCM output, the bias-corrected GCM output, or the reanalysis data. The second set of experiments is the same as the first set except spectral nudging is applied. The third set of experiments includes two sensitivity runs with both GCM bias corrections and nudging where the nudging strength is progressively reduced. All RCM simulations are assessed against North American Regional Reanalysis. The results show that NDD significantly improves the downscaled mean climate and climate variability relative to other GCM-driven RCM downscaling approach in terms of climatological mean air temperature, geopotential height, wind vectors, and surface air temperature variability. In the NDD approach, spectral nudging introduces the effects of GCM bias corrections throughout the RCM domain rather than just limiting them to the initial and lateral boundary conditions, thereby minimizing climate drifts resulting from both the GCM and RCM biases.

Regional climate model downscaling may improve the prediction of alien plant species distributions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shuyan; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Gao, Wei; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2014-12-01

Distributions of invasive species are commonly predicted with species distribution models that build upon the statistical relationships between observed species presence data and climate data. We used field observations, climate station data, and Maximum Entropy species distribution models for 13 invasive plant species in the United States, and then compared the models with inputs from a General Circulation Model (hereafter GCM-based models) and a downscaled Regional Climate Model (hereafter, RCM-based models).We also compared species distributions based on either GCM-based or RCM-based models for the present (1990-1999) to the future (2046-2055). RCM-based species distribution models replicated observed distributions remarkably better than GCM-based models for all invasive species under the current climate. This was shown for the presence locations of the species, and by using four common statistical metrics to compare modeled distributions. For two widespread invasive taxa ( Bromus tectorum or cheatgrass, and Tamarix spp. or tamarisk), GCM-based models failed miserably to reproduce observed species distributions. In contrast, RCM-based species distribution models closely matched observations. Future species distributions may be significantly affected by using GCM-based inputs. Because invasive plants species often show high resilience and low rates of local extinction, RCM-based species distribution models may perform better than GCM-based species distribution models for planning containment programs for invasive species.

Analysis of a general circulation model product. I - Frontal systems in the Brazil/Malvinas and Kuroshio/Oyashio regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Garzoli, Silvia L.; Garraffo, Zulema; Podesta, Guillermo; Brown, Otis

1992-01-01

The general circulation model (GCM) of Semtner and Chervin (1992) is tested by comparing the fields produced by this model with available observations in two western boundary current regions, the Brazil/Malvinas and the Kuroshio/Oyashio confluences. The two sets of data used are the sea surface temperature from satellite observations and the temperature field product from the GCM at levels 1 (12.5 m), 2 (37.5 m), and 6 (160 m). It is shown that the model reproduces intense thermal fronts at the sea surface and in the upper layers (where they are induced by the internal dynamics of the model). The location of the fronts are reproduced in the model within 4 to 5 deg, compared with observations. However, the variability of these fronts was found to be less pronounced in the model than in the observations.

A Variable-Resolution Stretched-Grid General Circulation Model and Data Assimilation System with Multiple Areas of Interest: Studying the Anomalous Regional Climate Events of 1998

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence; Govindaraju, Ravi C.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The new stretched-grid design with multiple (four) areas of interest, one at each global quadrant, is implemented into both a stretched-grid GCM (general circulation model) and a stretched-grid data assimilation system (DAS). The four areas of interest include: the U.S./Northern Mexico, the El Nino area/Central South America, India/China, and the Eastern Indian Ocean/Australia. Both the stretched-grid GCM and DAS annual (November 1997 through December 1998) integrations are performed with 50 km regional resolution. The efficient regional down-scaling to mesoscales is obtained for each of the four areas of interest while the consistent interactions between regional and global scales and the high quality of global circulation, are preserved. This is the advantage of the stretched-grid approach. The global variable resolution DAS incorporating the stretched-grid GCM has been developed and tested as an efficient tool for producing regional analyses and diagnostics with enhanced mesoscale resolution. The anomalous regional climate events of 1998 that occurred over the U.S., Mexico, South America, China, India, African Sahel, and Australia are investigated in both simulation and data assimilation modes. Tree assimilated products are also used, along with gauge precipitation data, for validating the simulation results. The obtained results show that the stretched-grid GCM and DAS are capable of producing realistic high quality simulated and assimilated products at mesoscale resolution for regional climate studies and applications.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, 3D Cloud-Resolving Model and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2005-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional singlecolumn models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from Merent geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloudscale model (termed a super-parameterization or multiscale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameteridon NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D Goddard cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF in being developed and production nms will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes, (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), (3) A cloud library generated by Goddard MMF, and 3D GCE model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Downscaling of Global Climate Change Estimates to Regional Scales: An Application to Iberian Rainfall in Wintertime.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Storch, Hans; Zorita, Eduardo; Cubasch, Ulrich

1993-06-01

A statistical strategy to deduct regional-scale features from climate general circulation model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to interrelate the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of large-scale atmospheric flow using the canonical correlation technique.The large-scale North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) is related to the regional, variable, winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to a good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to present from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. It is shown that this observed relationship between these two variables is not well reproduced in the output of a general circulation model (GCM).The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous `2 C02' doubling experiment, using the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field to predict Iberian rainfall yields, there is an insignificant increase of area-averaged rainfall of 1 mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the peninsula. In contrast, for the four GCM grid points representing the Iberian Peninsula, the change is 10 mm/month, with a minimum of 19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A ("business as usual") increase Of C02, the statistical-model results partially differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: in the experimental range of 100 years, the area-averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model), and by 9 mm/month (GCM); at the same time the amplitude of the interdecadal variability is quite different.

Hurricane Forecasting with the High-resolution NASA Finite-volume General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, R.; Reale, O.; Shen, B.-W.; Lin, S.-J.; Chern, J.-D.; Putman, W.; Lee, T.; Yeh, K.-S.; Bosilovich, M.; Radakovich, J.

2004-01-01

A high-resolution finite-volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), resulting from a development effort of more than ten years, is now being run operationally at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center and Ames Research Center. The model is based on a finite-volume dynamical core with terrain-following Lagrangian control-volume discretization and performs efficiently on massive parallel architectures. The computational efficiency allows simulations at a resolution of a quarter of a degree, which is double the resolution currently adopted by most global models in operational weather centers. Such fine global resolution brings us closer to overcoming a fundamental barrier in global atmospheric modeling for both weather and climate, because tropical cyclones and even tropical convective clusters can be more realistically represented. In this work, preliminary results of the fvGCM are shown. Fifteen simulations of four Atlantic tropical cyclones in 2002 and 2004 are chosen because of strong and varied difficulties presented to numerical weather forecasting. It is shown that the fvGCM, run at the resolution of a quarter of a degree, can produce very good forecasts of these tropical systems, adequately resolving problems like erratic track, abrupt recurvature, intense extratropical transition, multiple landfall and reintensification, and interaction among vortices.

Tropical storm interannual and interdecadal variability in an ensemble of GCM integrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitart, Frederic Pol.

1999-11-01

A T42L18 Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced by observed SSTs has been integrated for 10 years with 9 different initial conditions. An objective procedure for tracking model-generated tropical storms has been applied to this ensemble. Statistical tools have been applied to the ensemble frequency, intensity and location of tropical storms, leading to the conclusion that the potential predictability is particularly strong over the western North Pacific, the eastern North Pacific and the western North Atlantic. An EOF analysis of local SSts and a combined EOF analysis of vertical wind shear, 200 mb and 850 mb vorticity indicate that the simulated tropical storm interannual variability is mostly constrained by the large scale circulation as in observations. The model simulates a realistic interannual variability of tropical storms over the western North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific and Australian basin where the model simulates a realistic large scale circulation. Several experiments with the atmospheric GCM forced by imposed SSTs demonstrate that the GCM simulates a realistic impact of ENSO on the simulated Atlantic tropical storms. In addition the GCM simulates fewer tropical storms over the western North Atlantic with SSTs of the 1950s than with SSTs of the 1970s in agreement with observations. Tropical storms simulated with RAS and with MCA have been compared to evaluate their sensitivity to a change in cumulus parameterization. Composites of tropical storm structure indicate stronger tropical storms with higher warm cores with MCA. An experiment using the GFDL hurricane model and several theoretical calculations indicate that the mean state may be responsible for the difference in intensity and in the height of the warm core. With the RAS scheme, increasing the threshold which determines when convection can occur increases the tropical storm frequency almost linearly. The increase of tropical storm frequency seems to be linked to an increase of CAPE. Tropical storms predicted by a coupled model produce a strong cooling of SSTs and their intensity is lower than in the simulations. An ensemble of coupled GCM integrations displays some skill in forecasting the tropical storm frequency when starting on July 1st.

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and a Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2006-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CFWs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1 998 and 1999). In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

The Ability of a General Circulation Model to represent the Atmospheric Boundary Layer over the Antarctic Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vignon, Etienne; Hourdin, Frédéric; Genthon, Christophe; Madeleine, Jean-Baptiste; Cheruy, Frédérique; Gallée, Hubert; Bazile, Eric; Lefebvre, Marie-Pierre; Van de Wiel, Bas J. H.

2017-04-01

In a General Circulation Model (GCM), the turbulent mixing parametrization of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) over the Antarctic Plateau is critical since it affects the continental scale temperature inversion, the katabatic winds and finally the Southern Hemisphere circulation. The aim of this study is to evaluate the representation of the Antarctic Plateau ABL in the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique-Zoom (LMDZ) GCM, the atmospheric component of the IPSL Earth System Model in preparation for the sixth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project. We carry out 1D simulations on the fourth Gewex Atmospheric Boundary Layers Study (GABLS4) case, and 3D simulations with the 'zooming capability' of the horizontal grid and with nudging. Simulations are evaluated and validated using in-situ measurements obtained at Dome C, East Antarctic Plateau, and satellite data. Sensitivity tests to surface parameters, vertical grid and turbulent mixing parametrizations led to significant improvements of the model and to a new configuration better adapted for Antarctic conditions. In particular, we point out the need to remove minimum turbulence thresholds to correctly reproduce very steep temperature and wind speed gradients in the stable ABL. We then assess the ability of the GCM to represent the two distinct stable ABL regimes and very strong near-surface temperature inversions, which are fascinating and critical features of the Dome C climate. This leads us to investigate the competition between radiative and turbulent coupling between the ABL and the snow surface in the model. Our results show that the new configuration of LMDZ reproduces reasonnably well the Dome C climatology and it is able to model strong temperature inversions and radiatively-dominated ABL. However, they also reveal a strong sensitivity of the modeling of the different regimes to the radiative scheme and vertical resolution. The present work finally hints at future developments to better and more physically represent the polar ABL in a GCM.

GCM Simulation of the Large-Scale North American Monsoon Including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Walker, Gregory; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Sud, Yogesh; Atlas, Robert M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The geographic sources of water for the large scale North American monsoon in a GCM (General Circulation Model) are diagnosed using passive constituent tracers of regional water sources (Water Vapor Tracers, WVT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office Finite Volume (FV) GCM was used to produce a 10-year simulation (1984 through 1993) including observed sea surface temperature. Regional and global WVT sources were defined to delineate the surface origin of water for precipitation in and around the North American Monsoon. The evolution of the mean annual cycle and the interannual variations of the monsoonal circulation will be discussed. Of special concern are the relative contributions of the local source (precipitation recycling) and remote sources of water vapor to the annual cycle and the interannual variation of monsoonal precipitation. The relationships between soil water, surface evaporation, precipitation and precipitation recycling will be evaluated.

Two-Layer Variable Infiltration Capacity Land Surface Representation for General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, L.

1994-01-01

A simple two-layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC-2L) land surface model suitable for incorporation in general circulation models (GCMs) is described. The model consists of a two-layer characterization of the soil within a GCM grid cell, and uses an aerodynamic representation of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The effects of GCM spatial subgrid variability of soil moisture and a hydrologically realistic runoff mechanism are represented in the soil layers. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatalogical data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters. Surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiments (FIFE) intensive field compaigns in the summer and fall of 1987 in central Kansas, and from the Anglo-Brazilian Amazonian Climate Observation Study (ABRACOS) in Brazil were used to validate the mode-simulated surface energy fluxes and surface temperature.

Climate Simulations based on a different-grid nested and coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dan; Ji, Jinjun; Li, Yinpeng

2002-05-01

An atmosphere-vegetation interaction model (A VIM) has been coupled with a nine-layer General Cir-culation Model (GCM) of Institute of Atmospheic Physics/State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (IAP/LASG), which is rhomboidally truncated at zonal wave number 15, to simulate global climatic mean states. A VIM is a model having inter-feedback between land surface processes and eco-physiological processes on land. As the first step to couple land with atmosphere completely, the physiological processes are fixed and only the physical part (generally named the SVAT (soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme) model) of AVIM is nested into IAP/LASG L9R15 GCM. The ocean part of GCM is prescribed and its monthly sea surface temperature (SST) is the climatic mean value. With respect to the low resolution of GCM, i.e., each grid cell having lon-gitude 7.5° and latitude 4.5°, the vegetation is given a high resolution of 1.5° by 1.5° to nest and couple the fine grid cells of land with the coarse grid cells of atmosphere. The coupling model has been integrated for 15 years and its last ten-year mean of outputs was chosen for analysis. Compared with observed data and NCEP reanalysis, the coupled model simulates the main characteris-tics of global atmospheric circulation and the fields of temperature and moisture. In particular, the simu-lated precipitation and surface air temperature have sound results. The work creates a solid base on coupling climate models with the biosphere.

Simulations of aerosol constituents and their sources of origin over Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) to Himalayan foothills: a new perspective of GCM estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, B. D.; Verma, S.; Wang, R.; Boucher, O.

2016-12-01

In the present study, we evaluated aerosol constituents of the model using the measurements during premonsoon over Indo-Gangetic plain (IGP) to Himalayan foothills. Aerosol transport simulations were carried out in general circulation model (GCM) of Laboratoire de M ´et ´eorologie Dynamique (LMD-GCM) with three set of emissions including Indian emissions in GCM-Indemiss, global emissions in GCM coupled with aerosol interactive chemistry (GCM-INCA-I), and the global emissions with updated BC emission inventory over Asia in GCM-INCA-II. Among three models, GCM-indemiss reproduced measured single scattering albedo (SSA) at 670 nm with a relative bias of 5%. However, the estimated 30-50% of the measured aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm and 20-60% of the measured surface concentration of aerosol constituents (e.g. black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate) at most of the times over the study period. Inability of model to reproduce observed AOD changes was attributed to the paucity of emissions represented in the model. Design of retrieval simulations using existing GCM-indemiss estimates was further carried out. Retrieval simulations have produced better results, which showed constituent surface concentration in the vicinity of the measurements with normalized mean bias (NMB) of <30%. Scatter analysis between surface and elevated contribution of region's emissions showed anthropogenic emissions from the IGP on anthropogenic days and the north west India (NWI) on anthropogenic with dust days influence aerosols over northern India (NI). Our analysis showed BC emissions from base inventory for the corresponding grids of source region influencing NI were lower by 200% compared to that of modified scenario. These emissions will further be implemented in an atmospheric GCM to evaluate their performance validating with measurements data.

Global environmental effects of impact-generated aerosols: Results from a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Covey, C.; Ghan, S. J.; Weissman, Paul R.

1988-01-01

Cooling and darkening at Earth's surface are expected to result from the interception of sunlight by the high altitude worldwide dust cloud generated by impact of a large asteroid or comet, according to the one-dimensional radioactive-convective atmospheric model (RCM) of Pollack et al. An analogous three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM) simulation obtains the same basic result as the RCM but there are important differences in detail. In the GCM simulation the heat capacity of the oceans, not included in the RCM, substantially mitigates land surface cooling. On the other hand, the GCM's low heat capacity surface allows surface temperatures to drop much more rapidly than reported by Pollack et al. These two differences between RCM and GCM simulations were noted previously in studies of nuclear winter; GCM results for comet/asteroid winter, however, are much more severe than for nuclear winter because the assumed aerosol amount is large enough to intercept all sunlight falling on Earth. In the simulation the global average of land surface temperature drops to the freezing point in just 4.5 days, one-tenth the time required in the Pollack et al. simulation. In addition to the standard case of Pollack et al., which represents the collision of a 10-km diameter asteroid with Earth, additional scenarios are considered ranging from the statistically more frequent impacts of smaller asteroids to the collision of Halley's comet with Earth. In the latter case the kinetic energy of impact is extremely large due to the head-on collision resulting from Halley's retrograde orbit.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, TRMM Latent Heating and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2004-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to imiprove the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D GCE model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF will be developed by the end of 2004 and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. The purpose of this proposal is to augment the current Goddard MMF and other cloud modeling activities. I this talk, I will present: (1) A summary of the second Cloud Modeling Workshop took place at NASA Goddard, (2) A summary of the third TRMM Latent Heating Workshop took place at Nara Japan, (3) A brief discussion on the Goddard research plan of using Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System, 3D Cloud-Resolving Model and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2005-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud- resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF in being developed and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes, ( 2 ) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), (3) A cloud library generated by Goddard MMF, and 3D GCE model, and (4) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Snow hydrology in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, Susan; Roads, John O.; Glatzmaier, Gary

1994-01-01

A snow hydrology has been implemented in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The snow hydrology consists of parameterizations of snowfall and snow cover fraction, a prognostic calculation of snow temperature, and a model of the snow mass and hydrologic budgets. Previously, only snow albedo had been included by a specified snow line. A 3-year GCM simulation with this now more complete surface hydrology is compared to a previous GCM control run with the specified snow line, as well as with observations. In particular, the authors discuss comparisons of the atmospheric and surface hydrologic budgets and the surface energy budget for U.S. and Canadian areas. The new snow hydrology changes the annual cycle of the surface moisture and energy budgets in the model. There is a noticeable shift in the runoff maximum from winter in the control run to spring in the snow hydrology run. A substantial amount of GCM winter precipitation is now stored in the seasonal snowpack. Snow cover also acts as an important insulating layer between the atmosphere and the ground. Wintertime soil temperatures are much higher in the snow hydrology experiment than in the control experiment. Seasonal snow cover is important for dampening large fluctuations in GCM continental skin temperature during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Snow depths and snow extent show good agreement with observations over North America. The geographic distribution of maximum depths is not as well simulated by the model due, in part, to the coarse resolution of the model. The patterns of runoff are qualitatively and quantitatively similar to observed patterns of streamflow averaged over the continental United States. The seasonal cycles of precipitation and evaporation are also reasonably well simulated by the model, although their magnitudes are larger than is observed. This is due, in part, to a cold bias in this model, which results in a dry model atmosphere and enhances the hydrologic cycle everywhere.

An approach for assessing the sensitivity of floods to regional climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hughes, James P.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Wood, Eric F.

1992-06-01

A high visibility afforded climate change issues is recent years has led to conflicts between and among decision makers and scientists. Decision makers inevitably feel pressure to assess the effect of climate change on the public welfare, while most climate modelers are, to a greater or lesser degree, concerned about the extent to which known inaccuracies in their models limit or preclude the use of modeling results for policy making. The water resources sector affords a good example of the limitations of the use of alternative climate scenarios derived from GCMs for decision making. GCM simulations of precipitation agree poorly between GCMs, and GCM predictions of runoff and evapotranspiration are even more uncertain. Further, water resources managers must be concerned about hydrologic extremes (floods and droughts) which are much more difficult to predict than ``average'' conditions. Most studies of the sensitivity of water resource systems and operating policies to climate change to data have been based on simple perturbations of historic hydroclimatological time series to reflect the difference between large area GCM simulations for an altered climate (e.g., CO2 doubling) and a GCM simulation of present climate. Such approaches are especially limited for assessment of the sensitivity of water resources systems under extreme conditions, conditions, since the distribution of storm inter-arrival times, for instance, is kept identical to that observed in the historic past. Further, such approaches have generally been based on the difference between the GCM altered and present climates for a single grid cell, primarily because the GCM spatial scale is often much larger than the scale at which climate interpretations are desired. The use of single grid cell GCM results is considered inadvisable by many GCM modelers, who feel the spatial scale for which interpretation of GCM results is most reasonable is on the order of several grid cells. In this paper, we demonstrate an alternative approach to assessing the implications of altered climates as predicted by GCMs for extreme (flooding) conditions. The approach is based on the characterization of regional atmospheric circulation patterns through a weather typing procedure, from which a stochastic model of the weather class occurrences is formulated. Weather types are identified through a CART (Classification and Regression Tree) approach. Precipitation occurence/non-occurence at multiple precipitation station is then predicted through a second stage stochastic model. Precipitation amounts are predicted conditional on the weather class identified from the large area circulation information.

Documentation of a ground hydrology parameterization for use in the GISS atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, J. D.; Aleano, J.; Bock, P.

1978-01-01

The moisture transport processes related to the earth's surface relevant to the ground circulation model GCM are presented. The GHM parametrizations considered are: (1) ground wetness and soil parameters; (2) precipitation; (3) evapotranspiration; (4) surface storage of snow and ice; and (5) runout. The computational aspects of the GHM using computer programs and flow charts are described.

Coupled fvGCM-GCE Modeling System: TRMM Latent Heating and Cloud Library

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2005-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. A seed fund is available at NASA Goddard to build a MMF based on the 2D GCE model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM). A prototype MMF will be developed by the end of 2004 and production runs will be conducted at the beginning of 2005. The purpose of this proposal is to augment the current Goddard MMF and other cloud modeling activities. In this talk, I will present: (1) A summary of the second Cloud Modeling Workshop took place at NASA Goddard, (2) A summary of the third TRMM Latent Heating Workshop took place at Nara Japan, (3) A brief discussion on the GCE model on developing a global cloud simulator.

Seasonal Variability in Global Eddy Diffusion and the Effect on Thermospheric Neutral Density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilinski, M.; Crowley, G.

2014-12-01

We describe a method for making single-satellite estimates of the seasonal variability in global-average eddy diffusion coefficients. Eddy diffusion values as a function of time between January 2004 and January 2008 were estimated from residuals of neutral density measurements made by the CHallenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and simulations made using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics - Global Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The eddy diffusion coefficient results are quantitatively consistent with previous estimates based on satellite drag observations and are qualitatively consistent with other measurement methods such as sodium lidar observations and eddy-diffusivity models. The eddy diffusion coefficient values estimated between January 2004 and January 2008 were then used to generate new TIME-GCM results. Based on these results, the RMS difference between the TIME-GCM model and density data from a variety of satellites is reduced by an average of 5%. This result, indicates that global thermospheric density modeling can be improved by using data from a single satellite like CHAMP. This approach also demonstrates how eddy diffusion could be estimated in near real-time from satellite observations and used to drive a global circulation model like TIME-GCM. Although the use of global values improves modeled neutral densities, there are some limitations of this method, which are discussed, including that the latitude-dependence of the seasonal neutral-density signal is not completely captured by a global variation of eddy diffusion coefficients. This demonstrates the need for a latitude-dependent specification of eddy diffusion consistent with diffusion observations made by other techniques.

Seasonal variability in global eddy diffusion and the effect on neutral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pilinski, M. D.; Crowley, G.

2015-04-01

We describe a method for making single-satellite estimates of the seasonal variability in global-average eddy diffusion coefficients. Eddy diffusion values as a function of time were estimated from residuals of neutral density measurements made by the Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and simulations made using the thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics global circulation model (TIME-GCM). The eddy diffusion coefficient results are quantitatively consistent with previous estimates based on satellite drag observations and are qualitatively consistent with other measurement methods such as sodium lidar observations and eddy diffusivity models. Eddy diffusion coefficient values estimated between January 2004 and January 2008 were then used to generate new TIME-GCM results. Based on these results, the root-mean-square sum for the TIME-GCM model is reduced by an average of 5% when compared to density data from a variety of satellites, indicating that the fidelity of global density modeling can be improved by using data from a single satellite like CHAMP. This approach also demonstrates that eddy diffusion could be estimated in near real-time from satellite observations and used to drive a global circulation model like TIME-GCM. Although the use of global values improves modeled neutral densities, there are limitations to this method, which are discussed, including that the latitude dependence of the seasonal neutral-density signal is not completely captured by a global variation of eddy diffusion coefficients. This demonstrates the need for a latitude-dependent specification of eddy diffusion which is also consistent with diffusion observations made by other techniques.

Daily Reservoir Inflow Forecasting using Deep Learning with Downscaled Multi-General Circulation Models (GCMs) Platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, D.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex (DFW) has a population of over 7 million depending on many water supply reservoirs. The reservoir inflow plays a vital role in water supply decision making process and long-term strategic planning for the region. This paper demonstrates a method of utilizing deep learning algorithms and multi-general circulation model (GCM) platform to forecast reservoir inflow for three reservoirs within the DFW: Eagle Mountain Lake, Lake Benbrook and Lake Arlington. Ensemble empirical mode decomposition was firstly employed to extract the features, which were then represented by the deep belief networks (DBNs). The first 75 years of the historical data (1940 -2015) were used to train the model, while the last 2 years of the data (2016-2017) were used for the model validation. The weights of each DBN gained from the training process were then applied to establish a neural network (NN) that was able to forecast reservoir inflow. Feature predictors used for the forecasting model were generated from weather forecast results of the downscaled multi-GCM platform for the North Texas region. By comparing root mean square error (RMSE) and mean bias error (MBE) with the observed data, the authors found that the deep learning with downscaled multi-GCM platform is an effective approach in the reservoir inflow forecasting.

The earth's radiation budget and its relation to atmospheric hydrology. III - Comparison of observations over the oceans with a GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Graeme L.; Randall, David A.; Wittmeyer, Ian L.; Dazlich, Donald A.; Tjemkes, Stephen

1993-01-01

The ability of the Colorado State University general circulation model (GCM) to simulate interactions between the hydrological cycle and the radiative processes on earth was examined by comparing various sensitivity relationships established by the model with those observed on earth, and the observed and calculated seasonal cycles of the greenhouse effect and cloud radiative forcing. Results showed that, although the GCM model used was able to simulate well some aspects of the observed sensitivities, there were many serious quantitative differences, including problems in the simulation of the column vapor in the tropics and an excessively strong clear-sky greenhouse effect in the mid-latitudes. These differences led to an underestimation by the model of the sensitivity of the clear-sky greenhouse to changes in sea surface temperature.

Evolution of the Antarctic polar vortex in spring: Response of a GCM to a prescribed Antarctic ozone hole

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boville, B. A.; Kiehl, J. T.; Briegleb, B. P.

1988-01-01

The possible effect of the Antartic ozone hole on the evolution of the polar vortex during late winter and spring using a general circulation model (GCM) is examined. The GCM is a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model whose domain extends from the surface to the mesosphere and is similar to that described on Boville and Randel (1986). Ozone is not a predicted variable in the model. A zonally averaged ozone distribution is specified as a function of latitude, pressure and month for the radiation parameterization. Rather that explicitly address reasons for the formation of the ozone hole, researchers postulate its existence and ask what effect it has on the subsequent evolution of the vortex. The evolution of the model when an ozone hole is imposed is then discussed.

The influence of the tropics upon the prediction of the Southern Hemisphere circulation within the GLAS GCM. [Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, W. E.; Paegle, J.

1983-01-01

An examination is undertaken of the sensitivity of short term Southern Hemisphere circulation prediction to tropical wind data and tropical latent heat release. The data assimilation experiments employ the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences' fourth-order general circulation model. Two of the experiments are identical, but for the fact that one uses tropical wind data while the other does not. A third experiment contains the identical initial conditions of forecasts with tropical winds, while suppressing tropical latent heat release.

High resolution interpolation of climate scenarios for the conterminous USA and Alaska derived from general circulation model simulations

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence; David P. Coulson

2011-01-01

Projections of future climate were selected for four well-established general circulation models (GCM) forced by each of three greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, namely A2, A1B, and B1 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Monthly data for the period 1961-2100 were downloaded mainly from the web...

Downscaling of global climate change estimates to regional scales: An application to Iberian rainfall in wintertime

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

von Storch, H.; Zorita, E.; Cubasch, U.

A statistical strategy to deduct regional-scale features from climate general circulation model (GCM) simulations has been designed and tested. The main idea is to interrelate the characteristic patterns of observed simultaneous variations of regional climate parameters and of large-scale atmospheric flow using the canonical correlation technique. The large-scale North Atlantic sea level pressure (SLP) is related to the regional, variable, winter (DJF) mean Iberian Peninsula rainfall. The skill of the resulting statistical model is shown by reproducing, to a good approximation, the winter mean Iberian rainfall from 1900 to present from the observed North Atlantic mean SLP distributions. It ismore » shown that this observed relationship between these two variables is not well reproduced in the output of a general circulation model (GCM). The implications for Iberian rainfall changes as the response to increasing atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations simulated by two GCM experiments are examined with the proposed statistical model. In an instantaneous [open quotes]2 CO[sub 2][close quotes] doubling experiment, using the simulated change of the mean North Atlantic SLP field to predict Iberian rainfall yields, there is an insignificant increase of area-averaged rainfall of I mm/month, with maximum values of 4 mm/month in the northwest of the peninsula. In contrast, for the four GCM grid points representing the lberian Peninsula, the change is - 10 mm/month, with a minimum of - 19 mm/month in the southwest. In the second experiment, with the IPCC scenario A ([open quotes]business as usual[close quotes]) increase of CO[sub 2], the statistical-model results partially differ from the directly simulated rainfall changes: in the experimental range of 100 years, the area-averaged rainfall decreases by 7 mm/month (statistical model), and by 9 mm/month (GCM); at the same time the amplitude of the interdecadal variability is quite different. 17 refs., 10 figs.« less

Comparison of GCM subgrid fluxes calculated using BATS and SiB schemes with a coupled land-atmosphere high-resolution model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shen, Jinmei; Arritt, R.W.

The importance of land-atmosphere interactions and biosphere in climate change studies has long been recognized, and several land-atmosphere interaction schemes have been developed. Among these, the Simple Biosphere scheme (SiB) of Sellers et al. and the Biosphere Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) of Dickinson et al. are two of the most widely known. The effects of GCM subgrid-scale inhomogeneities of surface properties in general circulation models also has received increasing attention in recent years. However, due to the complexity of land surface processes and the difficulty to prescribe the large number of parameters that determine atmospheric and soil interactions with vegetation,more » many previous studies and results seem to be contradictory. A GCM grid element typically represents an area of 10{sup 4}-10{sup 6} km{sup 2}. Within such an area, there exist variations of soil type, soil wetness, vegetation type, vegetation density and topography, as well as urban areas and water bodies. In this paper, we incorporate both BATS and SiB2 land surface process schemes into a nonhydrostatic, compressible version of AMBLE model (Atmospheric Model -- Boundary-Layer Emphasis), and compare the surface heat fluxes and mesoscale circulations calculated using the two schemes. 8 refs., 5 figs.« less

Sensitivity simulations of superparameterised convection in a general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rybka, Harald; Tost, Holger

2015-04-01

Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs) covering a horizontal grid spacing from a few hundred meters up to a few kilometers have been used to explicitly resolve small-scale and mesoscale processes. Special attention has been paid to realistically represent cloud dynamics and cloud microphysics involving cloud droplets, ice crystals, graupel and aerosols. The entire variety of physical processes on the small-scale interacts with the larger-scale circulation and has to be parameterised on the coarse grid of a general circulation model (GCM). Since more than a decade an approach to connect these two types of models which act on different scales has been developed to resolve cloud processes and their interactions with the large-scale flow. The concept is to use an ensemble of CRM grid cells in a 2D or 3D configuration in each grid cell of the GCM to explicitly represent small-scale processes avoiding the use of convection and large-scale cloud parameterisations which are a major source for uncertainties regarding clouds. The idea is commonly known as superparameterisation or cloud-resolving convection parameterisation. This study presents different simulations of an adapted Earth System Model (ESM) connected to a CRM which acts as a superparameterisation. Simulations have been performed with the ECHAM/MESSy atmospheric chemistry (EMAC) model comparing conventional GCM runs (including convection and large-scale cloud parameterisations) with the improved superparameterised EMAC (SP-EMAC) modeling one year with prescribed sea surface temperatures and sea ice content. The sensitivity of atmospheric temperature, precipiation patterns, cloud amount and types is observed changing the embedded CRM represenation (orientation, width, no. of CRM cells, 2D vs. 3D). Additionally, we also evaluate the radiation balance with the new model configuration, and systematically analyse the impact of tunable parameters on the radiation budget and hydrological cycle. Furthermore, the subgrid variability (individual CRM cell output) is analysed in order to illustrate the importance of a highly varying atmospheric structure inside a single GCM grid box. Finally, the convective transport of Radon is observed comparing different transport procedures and their influence on the vertical tracer distribution.

EXAMINING TATOOINE: ATMOSPHERIC MODELS OF NEPTUNE-LIKE CIRCUMBINARY PLANETS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

May, E. M.; Rauscher, E.

2016-08-01

Circumbinary planets experience a time-varying irradiation pattern as they orbit their two host stars. In this work, we present the first detailed study of the atmospheric effects of this irradiation pattern on known and hypothetical gaseous circumbinary planets. Using both a one-dimensional energy balance model (EBM) and a three-dimensional general circulation model (GCM), we look at the temperature differences between circumbinary planets and their equivalent single-star cases in order to determine the nature of the atmospheres of these planets. We find that for circumbinary planets on stable orbits around their host stars, temperature differences are on average no more thanmore » 1.0% in the most extreme cases. Based on detailed modeling with the GCM, we find that these temperature differences are not large enough to excite circulation differences between the two cases. We conclude that gaseous circumbinary planets can be treated as their equivalent single-star case in future atmospheric modeling efforts.« less

Tidal Signals In GOCE Measurements And Time-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hausler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Lu, G.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Forbes, J. M.

2013-12-01

In this paper we investigate tidal signatures in GOCE measurements during 15-24 November 2009 and complementary simulations with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere- Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The TIME-GCM simulations are driven by inputs that represent the prevailing solar and geomagnetic conditions along with tidal and planetary waves applied at the lower boundary (ca. 30km). For this pilot study, the resultant TIME-GCM densities are analyzed in two ways: 1) we use results along the GOCE orbital track, to calculate ascending/descending orbit longitude- latitude density difference and sum maps for direct comparison with the GOCE diagnostics, and 2) we conduct a complete analysis of TIME-GCM results to unambiguously characterize the simulated atmospheric tides and to attribute the observed longitude variations to specific tidal components. TIME-GCM captures some but not all of the observed longitudinal variability. The good data- model agreement for wave-2, wave-3, and wave-4 suggests that thermospheric impacts can be attributed to the DE1, DE2, DE3, S0, SE1, and SE2 tides. Discrepancies between TIME-GCM and GOCE results are most prominent in the wave-1 variations, and suggest that further refinement of the lower boundary forcing is necessary before we extend our analysis and interpretation to densities associated with the remainder of the GOCE mission.

Aeolian dunes as ground truth for atmospheric modeling on Mars

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayward, R.K.; Titus, T.N.; Michaels, T.I.; Fenton, L.K.; Colaprete, A.; Christensen, P.R.

2009-01-01

Martian aeolian dunes preserve a record of atmosphere/surface interaction on a variety of scales, serving as ground truth for both Global Climate Models (GCMs) and mesoscale climate models, such as the Mars Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (MRAMS). We hypothesize that the location of dune fields, expressed globally by geographic distribution and locally by dune centroid azimuth (DCA), may record the long-term integration of atmospheric activity across a broad area, preserving GCM-scale atmospheric trends. In contrast, individual dune morphology, as expressed in slipface orientation (SF), may be more sensitive to localized variations in circulation, preserving topographically controlled mesoscale trends. We test this hypothesis by comparing the geographic distribution, DCA, and SF of dunes with output from the Ames Mars GCM and, at a local study site, with output from MRAMS. When compared to the GCM: 1) dunes generally lie adjacent to areas with strongest winds, 2) DCA agrees fairly well with GCM modeled wind directions in smooth-floored craters, and 3) SF does not agree well with GCM modeled wind directions. When compared to MRAMS modeled winds at our study site: 1) DCA generally coincides with the part of the crater where modeled mean winds are weak, and 2) SFs are consistent with some weak, topographically influenced modeled winds. We conclude that: 1) geographic distribution may be valuable as ground truth for GCMs, 2) DCA may be useful as ground truth for both GCM and mesoscale models, and 3) SF may be useful as ground truth for mesoscale models. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

El Nino-southern oscillation simulated in an MRI atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nagai, T.; Tokioka, T.; Endoh, M.

A coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (GCM) was time integrated for 30 years to study interannual variability in the tropics. The atmospheric component is a global GCM with 5 levels in the vertical and 4[degrees]latitude X 5[degrees] longitude grids in the horizontal including standard physical processes (e.g., interactive clouds). The oceanic component is a GCM for the Pacific with 19 levels in the vertical and 1[degrees]x 2.5[degrees] grids in the horizontal including seasonal varying solar radiation as forcing. The model succeeded in reproducing interannual variations that resemble the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with realistic seasonal variations in the atmospheric andmore » oceanic fields. The model ENSO cycle has a time scale of approximately 5 years and the model El Nino (warm) events are locked roughly in phase to the seasonal cycle. The cold events, however, are less evident in comparison with the El Nino events. The time scale of the model ENSO cycle is determined by propagation time of signals from the central-eastern Pacific to the western Pacific and back to the eastern Pacific. Seasonal timing is also important in the ENSO time scale: wind anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific occur in summer and the atmosphere ocean coupling in the western Pacific operates efficiently in the first half of the year.« less

GEOS-5 Chemistry Transport Model User's Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kouatchou, J.; Molod, A.; Nielsen, J. E.; Auer, B.; Putman, W.; Clune, T.

2015-01-01

The Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) General Circulation Model (GCM) makes use of the Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) to enable model configurations with many functions. One of the options of the GEOS-5 GCM is the GEOS-5 Chemistry Transport Model (GEOS-5 CTM), which is an offline simulation of chemistry and constituent transport driven by a specified meteorology and other model output fields. This document describes the basic components of the GEOS-5 CTM, and is a user's guide on to how to obtain and run simulations on the NCCS Discover platform. In addition, we provide information on how to change the model configuration input files to meet users' needs.

Sensitivity of CO2 Simulation in a GCM to the Convective Transport Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhu, Z.; Pawson, S.; Collatz, G. J.; Gregg, W. W.; Kawa, S. R.; Baker, D.; Ott, L.

2014-01-01

Convection plays an important role in the transport of heat, moisture and trace gases. In this study, we simulated CO2 concentrations with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). Three different convective transport algorithms were used. One is a modified Arakawa-Shubert scheme that was native to the GCM; two others used in two off-line chemical transport models (CTMs) were added to the GCM here for comparison purposes. Advanced CO2 surfaced fluxes were used for the simulations. The results were compared to a large quantity of CO2 observation data. We find that the simulation results are sensitive to the convective transport algorithms. Overall, the three simulations are quite realistic and similar to each other in the remote marine regions, but are significantly different in some land regions with strong fluxes such as Amazon and Siberia during the convection seasons. Large biases against CO2 measurements are found in these regions in the control run, which uses the original GCM. The simulation with the simple diffusive algorithm is better. The difference of the two simulations is related to the very different convective transport speed.

The Tropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere in the GEOS-2 GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, S.; Takacs, L.; Molod, A.; Nebuda, S.; Chen, M.; Rood, R.; Read, W. L.; Fiorino, M.

1999-01-01

The structure of the tropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere in the GEOS-2 General Circulation Model (GCM) is discussed. The emphasis of this study is on the reality of monthly-mean temperature and water vapor distributions in the model, compared to reasonable observational estimates. It is shown that although the zonal-mean temperature is in good agreement with observations, the GCM supports an excessive zonal asymmetry near the tropopause compared to the ECMWF Reanalyses. In reality there is a QBO-related variability in the zonally averaged lower stratospheric temperature which is not captured by the model. The observed upper tropospheric temperature and humidity fields show variations related to those in the sea surface temperature, which are not incorporated in the GCM; nevertheless, there is some interannual variability in the GCM, indicating a component arising from internal processes. The model is too moist in the middle troposphere (500 hPa) but too dry in the upper troposphere, suggesting that there is too little vertical transport or too much drying in the GCM. Transport into the stratosphere shows a pronounced annual cycle, with drier air entering the tropical stratosphere when the tropopause is coldest in northern winter; while the alternating dry and moist air masses can be traced ascending through the tropical lower stratosphere, the progression of the anomalies is too rapid.

Studies in the parameterization of cloudiness in climate models and the analysis of radiation fields in general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

HARSHVARDHAN

1990-01-01

Broad-band parameterizations for atmospheric radiative transfer were developed for clear and cloudy skies. These were in the shortwave and longwave regions of the spectrum. These models were compared with other models in an international effort called ICRCCM (Intercomparison of Radiation Codes for Climate Models). The radiation package developed was used for simulations of a General Circulation Model (GCM). A synopsis is provided of the research accomplishments in the two areas separately. Details are available in the published literature.

Assimilation of satellite color observations in a coupled ocean GCM-ecosystem model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sarmiento, Jorge L.

1992-01-01

Monthly average coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) estimates of chlorophyll concentration were assimilated into an ocean global circulation model(GCM) containing a simple model of the pelagic ecosystem. The assimilation was performed in the simplest possible manner, to allow the assessment of whether there were major problems with the ecosystem model or with the assimilation procedure. The current ecosystem model performed well in some regions, but failed in others to assimilate chlorophyll estimates without disrupting important ecosystem properties. This experiment gave insight into those properties of the ecosystem model that must be changed to allow data assimilation to be generally successful, while raising other important issues about the assimilation procedure.

A Coupled fcGCM-GCE Modeling System: A 3D Cloud Resolving Model and a Regional Scale Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2005-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and ore sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicity calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A Brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications), and (4) The characteristics of the four-dimensional cloud data sets (or cloud library) stored at Goddard.

Sensitivity of Precipitation in Coupled Land-Atmosphere Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Neelin, David; Zeng, N.; Suarez, M.; Koster, R.

2004-01-01

The project objective was to understand mechanisms by which atmosphere-land-ocean processes impact precipitation in the mean climate and interannual variations, focusing on tropical and subtropical regions. A combination of modeling tools was used: an intermediate complexity land-atmosphere model developed at UCLA known as the QTCM and the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Program general circulation model (NSIPP GCM). The intermediate complexity model was used to develop hypotheses regarding the physical mechanisms and theory for the interplay of large-scale dynamics, convective heating, cloud radiative effects and land surface feedbacks. The theoretical developments were to be confronted with diagnostics from the more complex GCM to validate or modify the theory.

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and a Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2007-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a superparameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (2ICE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generatio11 regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

A Coupled GCM-Cloud Resolving Modeling System, and A Regional Scale Model to Study Precipitation Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo

2006-01-01

Recent GEWEX Cloud System Study (GCSS) model comparison projects have indicated that cloud-resolving models (CRMs) agree with observations better than traditional single-column models in simulating various types of clouds and cloud systems from different geographic locations. Current and future NASA satellite programs can provide cloud, precipitation, aerosol and other data at very fine spatial and temporal scales. It requires a coupled global circulation model (GCM) and cloud-scale model (termed a super-parameterization or multi-scale modeling framework, MMF) to use these satellite data to improve the understanding of the physical processes that are responsible for the variation in global and regional climate and hydrological systems. The use of a GCM will enable global coverage, and the use of a CRM will allow for better and more sophisticated physical parameterization. NASA satellite and field campaign cloud related datasets can provide initial conditions as well as validation for both the MMF and CRMs. The Goddard MMF is based on the 2D Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model and the Goddard finite volume general circulation model (fvGCM), and it has started production runs with two years results (1998 and 1999). Also, at Goddard, we have implemented several Goddard microphysical schemes (21CE, several 31CE), Goddard radiation (including explicitly calculated cloud optical properties), and Goddard Land Information (LIS, that includes the CLM and NOAH land surface models) into a next generation regional scale model, WRF. In this talk, I will present: (1) A brief review on GCE model and its applications on precipitation processes (microphysical and land processes), (2) The Goddard MMF and the major difference between two existing MMFs (CSU MMF and Goddard MMF), and preliminary results (the comparison with traditional GCMs), and (3) A discussion on the Goddard WRF version (its developments and applications).

Evaluation of Transport in the Lower Tropical Stratosphere in a Global Chemistry and Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne R.; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Rood, Richard B.; Pawson, Steven; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Off-line models of the evolution of stratospheric constituents use meteorological information from a general circulation model (GCM) or from a data assimilation system (DAS). Here we focus on transport in the tropics and between the tropics and middle latitudes. Constituent fields from two simulations are compared with each other and with observations. One simulation uses winds from a GCM and the second uses winds from a DAS that has the same GCM at its core. Comparisons of results from the two simulations with observations from satellite, aircraft, and sondes are used to judge the realism of the tropical transport. Faithful comparisons between simulated fields and observations for O3, CH4, and the age-of-air are found for the simulation using the GCM fields. The same comparisons for the simulation using DAS fields show rapid upward tropical transport and excessive mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes. The unrealistic transport found in the DAS fields may be due to the failure of the GCM used in the assimilation system to represent the quasi-biennial oscillation. The assimilation system accounts for differences between the observations and the GCM by requiring implicit forcing to produce consistency between the GCM and observations. These comparisons suggest that the physical consistency of the GCM fields is more important to transport characteristics in the lower tropical stratosphere than the elimination bias with respect to meteorological observations that is accomplished by the DAS. The comparisons presented here show that GCM fields are more appropriate for long-term calculations to assess the impact of changes in stratospheric composition because the balance between photochemical and transport terms is likely to be represented correctly.

Statistical downscaling of GCM simulations to streamflow using relevance vector machine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Subimal; Mujumdar, P. P.

2008-01-01

General circulation models (GCMs), the climate models often used in assessing the impact of climate change, operate on a coarse scale and thus the simulation results obtained from GCMs are not particularly useful in a comparatively smaller river basin scale hydrology. The article presents a methodology of statistical downscaling based on sparse Bayesian learning and Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) to model streamflow at river basin scale for monsoon period (June, July, August, September) using GCM simulated climatic variables. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data have been used for training the model to establish a statistical relationship between streamflow and climatic variables. The relationship thus obtained is used to project the future streamflow from GCM simulations. The statistical methodology involves principal component analysis, fuzzy clustering and RVM. Different kernel functions are used for comparison purpose. The model is applied to Mahanadi river basin in India. The results obtained using RVM are compared with those of state-of-the-art Support Vector Machine (SVM) to present the advantages of RVMs over SVMs. A decreasing trend is observed for monsoon streamflow of Mahanadi due to high surface warming in future, with the CCSR/NIES GCM and B2 scenario.

A GCM simulation study of the influence of Saharan evapotranspiration and surface-albedo anomalies on July circulation and rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Y. C.; Molod, A.

1988-01-01

The influence of surface albedo and evapotranspiration anomalies that could result from the hypothetical semiarid vegetation over North Africa on its July circulation and rainfall is examined using the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres GCM. It is shown that increased soil moisture and its dependent evapotranspiration produces a cooler and moister PBL over North Africa that is able to support enhanced moist convection and rainfall in Sahel and southern Sahara. It is found that lower surface albedo yields even higher moist static energy in the PBL and enhances the local moist convection and rainfall. Modifying the rain-evaporation parameterization in the model produces changes in the hydrological cycle and rainfall anomalies in distant regions. The effects of different falling rain parameterizations are discussed.

Variations of total electron content during geomagnetic disturbances: A model/observation comparison

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roble, G. Lu X. Pi A. D. Richmond R. G.

1997-01-01

This paper studies the ionospheric response to major geomagnetic storm of October 18-19, 1995, using the thermosphere-ionosphere electrodynamic general circulation model (TIE-GCM) simulations and the global ionospheric maps (GIM) of total electron content (TEC) observations from the Global Positioning System (GPS) worldwide network.

Evaluation of CMIP5 and CORDEX Derived Wind Wave Climate in Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowdhury, P.; Behera, M. R.

2017-12-01

Climate change impact on surface ocean wave parameters need robust assessment for effective coastal zone management. Climate model skill to simulate dynamical General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Circulation Models (RCMs) forced wind-wave climate over northern Indian Ocean is assessed in the present work. The historical dynamical wave climate is simulated using surface winds derived from four GCMs and four RCMs, participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-South Asia), respectively, and their ensemble are used to force a spectral wave model. The surface winds derived from GCMs and RCMs are corrected for bias, using Quantile Mapping method, before being forced to the spectral wave model. The climatological properties of wave parameters (significant wave height (Hs), mean wave period (Tp) and direction (θm)) are evaluated relative to ERA-Interim historical wave reanalysis datasets over Arabian Sea (AS) and Bay of Bengal (BoB) regions of the northern Indian Ocean for a period of 27 years. We identify that the nearshore wave climate of AS is better predicted than the BoB by both GCMs and RCMs. Ensemble GCM simulated Hs in AS has a better correlation with ERA-Interim ( 90%) than in BoB ( 80%), whereas ensemble RCM simulated Hs has a low correlation in both regions ( 50% in AS and 45% in BoB). In AS, ensemble GCM simulated Tp has better predictability ( 80%) compared to ensemble RCM ( 65%). However, neither GCM nor RCM could satisfactorily predict Tp in nearshore BoB. Wave direction is poorly simulated by GCMs and RCMs in both AS and BoB, with correlation around 50% with GCMs and 60% with RCMs wind derived simulations. However, upon comparing individual RCMs with their parent GCMs, it is found that few of the RCMs predict wave properties better than their parent GCMs. It may be concluded that there is no consistent added value by RCMs over GCMs forced wind-wave climate over northern Indian Ocean. We also identify that there is little to no significance of choosing a finer resolution GCM ( 1.4°) over a coarse GCM ( 2.8°) in improving skill of GCM forced dynamical wave simulations.

The zonally averaged transport characteristics of the atmosphere as determined by a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Plumb, R. A.

1985-01-01

Two dimensional modeling has become an established technique for the simulation of the global structure of trace constituents. Such models are simpler to formulate and cheaper to operate than three dimensional general circulation models, while avoiding some of the gross simplifications of one dimensional models. Nevertheless, the parameterization of eddy fluxes required in a 2-D model is not a trivial problem. This fact has apparently led some to interpret the shortcomings of existing 2-D models as indicating that the parameterization procedure is wrong in principle. There are grounds to believe that these shortcomings result primarily from incorrect implementations of the predictions of eddy transport theory and that a properly based parameterization may provide a good basis for atmospheric modeling. The existence of these GCM-derived coefficients affords an unprecedented opportunity to test the validity of the flux-gradient parameterization. To this end, a zonally averaged (2-D) model was developed, using these coefficients in the transport parameterization. Results from this model for a number of contrived tracer experiments were compared with the parent GCM. The generally good agreement substantially validates the flus-gradient parameterization, and thus the basic principle of 2-D modeling.

Investigating TIME-GCM Atmospheric Tides for Different Lower Boundary Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haeusler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Lu, G.; Forbes, J. M.; Zhang, X.; Doornbos, E.

2013-12-01

It has been recently established that atmospheric tides generated in the lower atmosphere significantly influence the geospace environment. In order to extend our knowledge of the various coupling mechanisms between the different atmospheric layers, we rely on model simulations. Currently there exist two versions of the Global Scale Wave Model (GSWM), i.e. GSWM02 and GSWM09, which are used as a lower boundary (ca. 30 km) condition for the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) and account for the upward propagating atmospheric tides that are generated in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. In this paper we explore the various TIME-GCM upper atmospheric tidal responses for different lower boundary conditions and compare the model diagnostics with tidal results from satellite missions such as TIMED, CHAMP, and GOCE. We also quantify the differences between results associated with GSWM02 and GSWM09 forcing and results of TIMEGCM simulations using Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) data as a lower boundary condition.

Evidence for Limited Indirect Aerosol Forcing in Stratocumulus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ackerman, Andrew S.; Toon, O. B.; Stevens, D. E.

2003-01-01

Increases in cloud cover and condensed water contribute more than half of the indirect aerosol effect in an ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations estimating the global radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols. We use detailed simulations of marine stratocumulus clouds and airborne observations of ship tracks to show that increases in cloud cover and condensed water in reality are far less than represented by the GCM ensemble. Our results offer an explanation for recent simplified inverse climate calculations indicating that indirect aerosol effects are greatly exaggerated in GCMs.

A GCM simulation of the earth-atmosphere radiation balance for winter and summer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, M. L. C.

1979-01-01

The radiation balance of the earth-atmosphere system simulated by using the general circulation model (GCM) of the Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) is examined in regards to its graphical distribution, zonally-averaged distribution, and global mean. Most of the main features of the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere are reasonably simulated, with some differences in the detailed structure of the patterns and intensities for both summer and winter in comparison with values as derived from Nimbus and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) satellite observations. Both the capability and defects of the model are discussed.

Land-Atmosphere Coupling in the Multi-Scale Modelling Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraus, P. M.; Denning, S.

2015-12-01

The Multi-Scale Modeling Framework (MMF), in which cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are embedded within general circulation model (GCM) gridcells to serve as the model's cloud parameterization, has offered a number of benefits to GCM simulations. The coupling of these cloud-resolving models directly to land surface model instances, rather than passing averaged atmospheric variables to a single instance of a land surface model, the logical next step in model development, has recently been accomplished. This new configuration offers conspicuous improvements to estimates of precipitation and canopy through-fall, but overall the model exhibits warm surface temperature biases and low productivity.This work presents modifications to a land-surface model that take advantage of the new multi-scale modeling framework, and accommodate the change in spatial scale from a typical GCM range of ~200 km to the CRM grid-scale of 4 km.A parameterization is introduced to apportion modeled surface radiation into direct-beam and diffuse components. The diffuse component is then distributed among the land-surface model instances within each GCM cell domain. This substantially reduces the number excessively low light values provided to the land-surface model when cloudy conditions are modeled in the CRM, associated with its 1-D radiation scheme. The small spatial scale of the CRM, ~4 km, as compared with the typical ~200 km GCM scale, provides much more realistic estimates of precipitation intensity, this permits the elimination of a model parameterization of canopy through-fall. However, runoff at such scales can no longer be considered as an immediate flow to the ocean. Allowing sub-surface water flow between land-surface instances within the GCM domain affords better realism and also reduces temperature and productivity biases.The MMF affords a number of opportunities to land-surface modelers, providing both the advantages of direct simulation at the 4 km scale and a much reduced conceptual gap between model resolution and parameterized processes.

Three-dimensional turbulence-resolving modeling of the Venusian cloud layer and induced gravity waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefèvre, Maxence; Spiga, Aymeric; Lebonnois, Sébastien

2017-01-01

The impact of the cloud convective layer of the atmosphere of Venus on the global circulation remains unclear. The recent observations of gravity waves at the top of the cloud by the Venus Express mission provided some answers. These waves are not resolved at the scale of global circulation models (GCM); therefore, we developed an unprecedented 3-D turbulence-resolving large-eddy simulations (LES) Venusian model using the Weather Research and Forecast terrestrial model. The forcing consists of three different heating rates: two radiative ones for solar and infrared and one associated with the adiabatic cooling/warming of the global circulation. The rates are extracted from the Laboratoire de Météorlogie Dynamique Venus GCM using two different cloud models. Thus, we are able to characterize the convection and associated gravity waves in function of latitude and local time. To assess the impact of the global circulation on the convective layer, we used rates from a 1-D radiative-convective model. The resolved layer, taking place between 1.0 × 105 and 3.8 × 104 Pa (48-53 km), is organized as polygonal closed cells of about 10 km wide with vertical wind of several meters per second. The convection emits gravity waves both above and below the convective layer leading to temperature perturbations of several tenths of kelvin with vertical wavelength between 1 and 3 km and horizontal wavelength from 1 to 10 km. The thickness of the convective layer and the amplitudes of waves are consistent with observations, though slightly underestimated. The global dynamics heating greatly modify the convective layer.

GCM simulations of intraseasonal variability in the Pacific/North American region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max; Park, Chung-Kyu; Moorthi, Shrinivas

1993-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of low-frequency variability with time scales of 20 to 70 days are analyzed for the Pacific sector during boreal winter. The GCM's leading mode in the upper-tropospheric zonal wind is associated with fluctuations of the East Asian jet; this mode resembles, in both structure and amplitude, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern found in the observations on these time scales. In both the model and observations, the PNA anomaly is characterized by: (1) a linear balance in the upper-tropospheric vorticity budget with no significant Rossby wave source in the tropics, (2) a barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the time mean Pacific jet, and (3) a north/south displacement of the Pacific storm track. In the GCM, the latter is associated with synoptic eddy heat flux and latent heat anomalies that appear to contribute to a strong lower-tropospheric source of wave activity over the North Pacific. This is in contrast to the observations, which show only a weak source of wave activity in this region.

An improved standardization procedure to remove systematic low frequency variability biases in GCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehrotra, Rajeshwar; Sharma, Ashish

2012-12-01

The quality of the absolute estimates of general circulation models (GCMs) calls into question the direct use of GCM outputs for climate change impact assessment studies, particularly at regional scales. Statistical correction of GCM output is often necessary when significant systematic biasesoccur between the modeled output and observations. A common procedure is to correct the GCM output by removing the systematic biases in low-order moments relative to observations or to reanalysis data at daily, monthly, or seasonal timescales. In this paper, we present an extension of a recently published nested bias correction (NBC) technique to correct for the low- as well as higher-order moments biases in the GCM-derived variables across selected multiple time-scales. The proposed recursive nested bias correction (RNBC) approach offers an improved basis for applying bias correction at multiple timescales over the original NBC procedure. The method ensures that the bias-corrected series exhibits improvements that are consistently spread over all of the timescales considered. Different variations of the approach starting from the standard NBC to the more complex recursive alternatives are tested to assess their impacts on a range of GCM-simulated atmospheric variables of interest in downscaling applications related to hydrology and water resources. Results of the study suggest that three to five iteration RNBCs are the most effective in removing distributional and persistence related biases across the timescales considered.

Application of dynamical systems theory to global weather phenomena revealed by satellite imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel; Tang, Chung-Muh

1989-01-01

Theoretical studies of low frequency and seasonal weather variability; dynamical properties of observational and general circulation model (GCM)-generated records; effects of the hydrologic cycle and latent heat release on extratropical weather; and Earth-system science studies are summarized.

Evaluating the utility of dynamical downscaling in agricultural impacts projections

PubMed Central

Glotter, Michael; Elliott, Joshua; McInerney, David; Best, Neil; Foster, Ian; Moyer, Elisabeth J.

2014-01-01

Interest in estimating the potential socioeconomic costs of climate change has led to the increasing use of dynamical downscaling—nested modeling in which regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with general circulation model (GCM) output—to produce fine-spatial-scale climate projections for impacts assessments. We evaluate here whether this computationally intensive approach significantly alters projections of agricultural yield, one of the greatest concerns under climate change. Our results suggest that it does not. We simulate US maize yields under current and future CO2 concentrations with the widely used Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer crop model, driven by a variety of climate inputs including two GCMs, each in turn downscaled by two RCMs. We find that no climate model output can reproduce yields driven by observed climate unless a bias correction is first applied. Once a bias correction is applied, GCM- and RCM-driven US maize yields are essentially indistinguishable in all scenarios (<10% discrepancy, equivalent to error from observations). Although RCMs correct some GCM biases related to fine-scale geographic features, errors in yield are dominated by broad-scale (100s of kilometers) GCM systematic errors that RCMs cannot compensate for. These results support previous suggestions that the benefits for impacts assessments of dynamically downscaling raw GCM output may not be sufficient to justify its computational demands. Progress on fidelity of yield projections may benefit more from continuing efforts to understand and minimize systematic error in underlying climate projections. PMID:24872455

The annual cycle of stratospheric water vapor in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mote, Philip W.

1995-01-01

The application of general circulation models (GCM's) to stratospheric chemistry and transport both permits and requires a thorough investigation of stratospheric water vapor. The National Center for Atmospheric Research has redesigned its GCM, the Community Climate Model (CCM2), to enable studies of the chemistry and transport of tracers including water vapor; the importance of water vapor to the climate and chemistry of the stratosphere requires that it be better understood in the atmosphere and well represented in the model. In this study, methane is carried as a tracer and converted to water; this simple chemistry provides an adequate representation of the upper stratospheric water vapor source. The cold temperature bias in the winter polar stratosphere, which the CCM2 shares with other GCM's, produces excessive dehydration in the southern hemisphere, but this dry bias can be ameliorated by setting a minimum vapor pressure. The CCM2's water vapor distribution and seasonality compare favorably with observations in many respects, though seasonal variations including the upper stratospheric semiannual oscillation are generally too small. Southern polar dehydration affects midlatitude water vapor mixing ratios by a few tenths of a part per million, mostly after the demise of the vortex. The annual cycle of water vapor in the tropical and northern midlatitude lower stratosphere is dominated by drying at the tropical tropopause. Water vapor has a longer adjustment time than methane and had not reached equilibrium at the end of the 9 years simulated here.

Evaluation of Transport in the Lower Tropical Stratosphere in a Global Chemistry and Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, Anne R.; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Rood, Richard B.; Pawson, Steven

2002-01-01

A general circulation model (GCM) relies on various physical parameterizations and provides a solution to the atmospheric equations of motion. A data assimilation system (DAS) combines information from observations with a GCM forecast and produces analyzed meteorological fields that represent the observed atmospheric state. An off-line chemistry and transport model (CTM) can use winds and temperatures from a either a GCM or a DAS. The latter application is in common usage for interpretation of observations from various platforms under the assumption that the DAS transport represents the actual atmospheric transport. Here we compare the transport produced by a DAS with that produced by the particular GCM that is combined with observations to produce the analyzed fields. We focus on transport in the tropics and middle latitudes by comparing the age-of-air inferred from observations of SF6 and CO2 with the age-of-air calculated using GCM fields and DAS fields. We also compare observations of ozone, total reactive nitrogen, and methane with results from the two simulations. These comparisons show that DAS fields produce rapid upward tropical transport and excessive mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes. The unrealistic transport produced by the DAS fields may be due to implicit forcing that is required by the assimilation process when there is bias between the GCM forecast and observations that are combined to produce the analyzed fields. For example, the GCM does not produce a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The QBO is present in the analyzed fields because it is present in the observations, and systematic implicit forcing is required by the DAS. Any systematic bias between observations and the GCM forecast used to produce the DAS analysis is likely to corrupt the transport produced by the analyzed fields. Evaluation of transport in the lower tropical stratosphere in a global chemistry and transport model.

Upgrades, Current Capabilities and Near-Term Plans of the NASA ARC Mars Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, J. L.; Kahre, Melinda April; Haberle, Robert M.; Schaeffer, James R.

2012-01-01

We describe and review recent upgrades to the ARC Mars climate modeling framework, in particular, with regards to physical parameterizations (i.e., testing, implementation, modularization and documentation); the current climate modeling capabilities; selected research topics regarding current/past climates; and then, our near-term plans related to the NASA ARC Mars general circulation modeling (GCM) project.

Uncertainties in the projection of species distributions related to general circulation models

PubMed Central

Goberville, Eric; Beaugrand, Grégory; Hautekèete, Nina-Coralie; Piquot, Yves; Luczak, Christophe

2015-01-01

Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are increasingly used by ecologists to project species potential future distribution. However, the application of such models may be challenging, and some caveats have already been identified. While studies have generally shown that projections may be sensitive to the ENM applied or the emission scenario, to name just a few, the sensitivity of ENM-based scenarios to General Circulation Models (GCMs) has been often underappreciated. Here, using a multi-GCM and multi-emission scenario approach, we evaluated the variability in projected distributions under future climate conditions. We modeled the ecological realized niche (sensu Hutchinson) and predicted the baseline distribution of species with contrasting spatial patterns and representative of two major functional groups of European trees: the dwarf birch and the sweet chestnut. Their future distributions were then projected onto future climatic conditions derived from seven GCMs and four emissions scenarios using the new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) developed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 report. Uncertainties arising from GCMs and those resulting from emissions scenarios were quantified and compared. Our study reveals that scenarios of future species distribution exhibit broad differences, depending not only on emissions scenarios but also on GCMs. We found that the between-GCM variability was greater than the between-RCP variability for the next decades and both types of variability reached a similar level at the end of this century. Our result highlights that a combined multi-GCM and multi-RCP approach is needed to better consider potential trajectories and uncertainties in future species distributions. In all cases, between-GCM variability increases with the level of warming, and if nothing is done to alleviate global warming, future species spatial distribution may become more and more difficult to anticipate. When future species spatial distributions are examined, we propose to use a large number of GCMs and RCPs to better anticipate potential trajectories and quantify uncertainties. PMID:25798227

Recent Upgrades to the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model: Applications to Mars' Water Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Montmessin, F.; Wilson, R. J.; Schaeffer, J.

2008-09-01

We report on recent improvements to the NASA Ames Mars general circulation model (GCM), a robust 3D climate-modeling tool that is state-of-the-art in terms of its physics parameterizations and subgrid-scale processes, and which can be applied to investigate physical and dynamical processes of the present (and past) Mars climate system. The most recent version (gcm2.1, v.24) of the Ames Mars GCM utilizes a more generalized radiation code (based on a two-stream approximation with correlated k's); an updated transport scheme (van Leer formulation); a cloud microphysics scheme that assumes a log-normal particle size distribution whose first two moments are treated as atmospheric tracers, and which includes the nucleation, growth and sedimentation of ice crystals. Atmospheric aerosols (e.g., dust and water-ice) can either be radiatively active or inactive. We apply this version of the Ames GCM to investigate key aspects of the present water cycle on Mars. Atmospheric dust is partially interactive in our simulations; namely, the radiation code "sees" a prescribed distribution that follows the MGS thermal emission spectrometer (TES) year-one measurements with a self-consistent vertical depth scale that varies with season. The cloud microphysics code interacts with a transported dust tracer column whose surface source is adjusted to maintain the TES distribution. The model is run from an initially dry state with a better representation of the north residual cap (NRC) which accounts for both surface-ice and bare-soil components. A seasonally repeatable water cycle is obtained within five Mars years. Our sub-grid scale representation of the NRC provides for a more realistic flux of moisture to the atmosphere and a much drier water cycle consistent with recent spacecraft observations (e.g., Mars Express PFS, corrected MGS/TES) compared to models that assume a spatially uniform and homogeneous north residual polar cap.

A Year-Long Comparison of GPS TEC and Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perlongo, N. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Cnossen, I.; Wu, C.

2018-02-01

The prevalence of GPS total electron content (TEC) observations has provided an opportunity for extensive global ionosphere-thermosphere model validation efforts. This study presents a year-long data-model comparison using the Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) and the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). For the entire year of 2010, each model was run and compared to GPS TEC observations. The results were binned according to season, latitude, local time, and magnetic local time. GITM was found to overestimate the TEC everywhere, except on the midlatitude nightside, due to high O/N2 ratios. TIE-GCM produced much less TEC and had lower O/N2 ratios and neutral wind speeds. Seasonal and regional biases in the models are discussed along with ideas for model improvements and further validation efforts.

Modeling Climate Change in the Absence of Climate Change Data. Editorial Comment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skiles, J. W.

1995-01-01

Practitioners of climate change prediction base many of their future climate scenarios on General Circulation Models (GCM's), each model with differing assumptions and parameter requirements. For representing the atmosphere, GCM's typically contain equations for calculating motion of particles, thermodynamics and radiation, and continuity of water vapor. Hydrology and heat balance are usually included for continents, and sea ice and heat balance are included for oceans. The current issue of this journal contains a paper by Van Blarcum et al. (1995) that predicts runoff from nine high-latitude rivers under a doubled CO2 atmosphere. The paper is important since river flow is an indicator variable for climate change. The authors show that precipitation will increase under the imposed perturbations and that owing to higher temperatures earlier in the year that cause the snow pack to melt sooner, runoff will also increase. They base their simulations on output from a GCM coupled with an interesting water routing scheme they have devised. Climate change models have been linked to other models to predict deforestation.

Projected effect of 2000-2050 changes in climate and emissions on aerosol levels in China and associated transboundary transport

EPA Science Inventory

We investigate projected 2000–2050 changes in concentrations of aerosols in China and the associated transboundary aerosol transport by using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 3 at 4° × ...

Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning

Treesearch

Azad Henareh Khalyani; William A. Gould; Eric Harmsen; Adam Terando; Maya Quinones; Jaime A. Collazo

2016-01-01

The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

HARSHVARDHAN

1991-01-01

The net upward longwave surface radiation is exceedingly difficult to measure from space. A hybrid method using General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations and satellite data from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) was used to produce global maps of this quantity over oceanic areas. An advantage of this technique is that no independent knowledge or assumptions regarding cloud cover for a particular month are required. The only information required is a relationship between the cloud radiation forcing (CRF) at the top of the atmosphere and that at the surface, which is obtained from the GCM simulation. A flow diagram of the technique and results are given.

Statistical downscaling modeling with quantile regression using lasso to estimate extreme rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santri, Dewi; Wigena, Aji Hamim; Djuraidah, Anik

2016-02-01

Rainfall is one of the climatic elements with high diversity and has many negative impacts especially extreme rainfall. Therefore, there are several methods that required to minimize the damage that may occur. So far, Global circulation models (GCM) are the best method to forecast global climate changes include extreme rainfall. Statistical downscaling (SD) is a technique to develop the relationship between GCM output as a global-scale independent variables and rainfall as a local- scale response variable. Using GCM method will have many difficulties when assessed against observations because GCM has high dimension and multicollinearity between the variables. The common method that used to handle this problem is principal components analysis (PCA) and partial least squares regression. The new method that can be used is lasso. Lasso has advantages in simultaneuosly controlling the variance of the fitted coefficients and performing automatic variable selection. Quantile regression is a method that can be used to detect extreme rainfall in dry and wet extreme. Objective of this study is modeling SD using quantile regression with lasso to predict extreme rainfall in Indramayu. The results showed that the estimation of extreme rainfall (extreme wet in January, February and December) in Indramayu could be predicted properly by the model at quantile 90th.

The Stochastic Multicloud Model as part of an operational convection parameterisation in a comprehensive GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Karsten; Jakob, Christian; Möbis, Benjamin

2015-04-01

An adequate representation of convective processes in numerical models of the atmospheric circulation (general circulation models, GCMs) remains one of the grand challenges in atmospheric science. In particular, the models struggle with correctly representing the spatial distribution and high variability of tropical convection. It is thought that this model deficiency partly results from formulating current convection parameterisation schemes in a purely deterministic manner. Here, we use observations of tropical convection to inform the design of a novel convection parameterisation with stochastic elements. The novel scheme is built around the Stochastic MultiCloud Model (SMCM, Khouider et al 2010). We present the progress made in utilising SMCM-based estimates of updraft area fractions at cloud base as part of the deep convection scheme of a GCM. The updraft area fractions are used to yield one part of the cloud base mass-flux used in the closure assumption of convective mass-flux schemes. The closure thus receives a stochastic component, potentially improving modeled convective variability and coherence. For initial investigations, we apply the above methodology to the operational convective parameterisation of the ECHAM6 GCM. We perform 5-year AMIP simulations, i.e. with prescribed observed SSTs. We find that with the SMCM, convection is weaker and more coherent and continuous from timestep to timestep compared to the standard model. Total global precipitation is reduced in the SMCM run, but this reduces i) the overall error compared to observed global precipitation (GPCP) and ii) middle tropical tropospheric temperature biases compared to ERA-Interim. Hovmoeller diagrams indicate a slightly higher degree of convective organisation compared to the base case and Wheeler-Kiladis frequency wavenumber diagrams indicate slightly more spectral power in the MJO range.

Equilibrium Atmospheric Response to North Atlantic SST Anomalies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kushnir, Yochanan; Held, Isaac M.

1996-06-01

The equilibrium general circulation model (GCM) response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western North Atlantic region is studied. A coarse resolution GCM, with realistic lower boundary conditions including topography and climatological SST distribution, is integrated in perpetual January and perpetual October modes, distinguished from one another by the strength of the midlatitude westerlies. An SST anomaly with a maximum of 4°C is added to the climatological SST distribution of the model with both positive and negative polarity. These anomaly runs are compared to one another, and to a control integration, to determine the atmospheric response. In all cases warming (cooling) of the midlatitude ocean surface yields a warming (cooling) of the atmosphere over and to the east of the SST anomaly center. The atmospheric temperature change is largest near the surface and decreases upward. Consistent with this simple thermal response, the geopotential height field displays a baroclinic response with a shallow anomalous low somewhat downstream from the warm SST anomaly. The equivalent barotropic, downstream response is weak and not robust. To help interpret the results, the realistic GCM integrations are compared with parallel idealized model runs. The idealized model has full physics and a similar horizontal and vertical resolution, but an all-ocean surface with a single, permanent zonal asymmetry. The idealized and realistic versions of the GCM display compatible response patterns that are qualitatively consistent with stationary, linear, quasigeostrophic theory. However, the idealized model response is stronger and more coherent. The differences between the two model response patterns can be reconciled based on the size of the anomaly, the model treatment of cloud-radiation interaction, and the static stability of the model atmosphere in the vicinity of the SST anomaly. Model results are contrasted with other GCM studies and observations.

Three-dimensional turbulence-resolving modeling of the Venusian cloud layer and induced gravity waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lefèvre, Maxence; Spiga, Aymeric; Lebonnois, Sébastien

2017-04-01

The impact of the cloud convective layer of the atmosphere of Venus on the global circulation remains unclear. The recent observations of gravity waves at the top of the cloud by the Venus Express mission provided some answers. These waves are not resolved at the scale of global circulation models (GCM), therefore we developed an unprecedented 3D turbulence-resolving Large-Eddy Simulations (LES) Venusian model (Lefèvre et al, 2016 JGR Planets) using the Weather Research and Forecast terrestrial model. The forcing consists of three different heating rates : two radiative ones for solar and infrared and one associated with the adiabatic cooling/warming of the global circulation. The rates are extracted from the Laboratoire de Météorlogie Dynamique (LMD) Venus GCM using two different cloud models. Thus we are able to characterize the convection and associated gravity waves in function of latitude and local time. To assess the impact of the global circulation on the convective layer, we used rates from a 1D radiative-convective model. The resolved layer, taking place between 1.0 105 and 3.8 104 Pa (48-53 km), is organized as polygonal closed cells of about 10 km wide with vertical wind of several meters per second. The convection emits gravity waves both above and below the convective layer leading to temperature perturbations of several tenths of Kelvin with vertical wavelength between 1 and 3 km and horizontal wavelength from 1 to 10 km. The thickness of the convective layer and the amplitudes of waves are consistent with observations, though slightly underestimated. The global dynamics heating greatly modify the convective layer.

The impact of resolution on the dynamics of the martian global atmosphere: Varying resolution studies with the MarsWRF GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toigo, Anthony D.; Lee, Christopher; Newman, Claire E.; Richardson, Mark I.

2012-09-01

We investigate the sensitivity of the circulation and thermal structure of the martian atmosphere to numerical model resolution in a general circulation model (GCM) using the martian implementation (MarsWRF) of the planetWRF atmospheric model. We provide a description of the MarsWRF GCM and use it to study the global atmosphere at horizontal resolutions from 7.5° × 9° to 0.5° × 0.5°, encompassing the range from standard Mars GCMs to global mesoscale modeling. We find that while most of the gross-scale features of the circulation (the rough location of jets, the qualitative thermal structure, and the major large-scale features of the surface level winds) are insensitive to horizontal resolution over this range, several major features of the circulation are sensitive in detail. The northern winter polar circulation shows the greatest sensitivity, showing a continuous transition from a smooth polar winter jet at low resolution, to a distinct vertically “split” jet as resolution increases. The separation of the lower and middle atmosphere polar jet occurs at roughly 10 Pa, with the split jet structure developing in concert with the intensification of meridional jets at roughly 10 Pa and above 0.1 Pa. These meridional jets appear to represent the separation of lower and middle atmosphere mean overturning circulations (with the former being consistent with the usual concept of the “Hadley cell”). Further, the transition in polar jet structure is more sensitive to changes in zonal than meridional horizontal resolution, suggesting that representation of small-scale wave-mean flow interactions is more important than fine-scale representation of the meridional thermal gradient across the polar front. Increasing the horizontal resolution improves the match between the modeled thermal structure and the Mars Climate Sounder retrievals for northern winter high latitudes. While increased horizontal resolution also improves the simulation of the northern high latitudes at equinox, even the lowest model resolution considered here appears to do a good job for the southern winter and southern equinoctial pole (although in detail some discrepancies remain). These results suggest that studies of the northern winter jet (e.g., transient waves and cyclogenesis) will be more sensitive to global model resolution that those of the south (e.g., the confining dynamics of the southern polar vortex relevant to studies of argon transport). For surface winds, the major effect of increased horizontal resolution is in the superposition of circulations forced by local-scale topography upon the large-scale surface wind patterns. While passive predictions of dust lifting are generally insensitive to model horizontal resolution when no lifting threshold is considered, increasing the stress threshold produces significantly more lifting in higher resolution simulations with the generation of finer-scale, higher-stress winds due primarily to better-resolved topography. Considering the positive feedbacks expected for radiatively active dust lifting, we expect this bias to increase when such feedbacks are permitted.

A general circulation model study of the climatic effect of observed stratospheric ozone depletion between 1980 and 1990

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dudek, Michael P.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Li, Zhu

1994-01-01

The total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) and stratospheric aerosol and gas experiment (SAGE) measurements show a significant reduction in the stratospheric ozone over the middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres between the years 1979 and 1991 (WMO, 1992). This change in ozone will effect both the solar and longwave radiation with climate implications. However, recent studies (Ramaswamy et al., 1992; WMO, 1992) indicate that the net effect depends not only on latitudes and seasons, but also on the response of the lower stratospheric temperature. In this study we use a general circulation model (GCM) to calculate the climatic effect due to stratospheric ozone depletion and compare the effect with that due to observed increases of trace gases CO2, CH4, N2O, and CFC's for the period 1980-1990. In the simulations, we use the observed changes in ozone derived from the TOMS data. The GCM used is a version of the NCAR community climate model referenced in Wang et al. (1991). For the present study we run the model in perpetual January and perpetual July modes in which the incoming solar radiation and climatological sea surface temperatures are held constant.

Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

2018-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

A thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamic general circulation model (time-GCM): Equinox solar cycle minimum simulations (30-500 km)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roble, R. G.; Ridley, E. C.

1994-01-01

A new simulation model of the mesosphere, thermosphere, and ionosphere with coupled electrodynamics has been developed and used to calculate the global circulation, temperature and compositional structure between 30-500 km for equinox, solar cycle minimum, geomagnetic quiet conditions. The model incorporates all of the features of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) thermosphere-ionosphere- electrodynamics general circulation model (TIE-GCM) but the lower boundary has been extended downward from 97 to 30 km (10 mb) and it includes the physical and chemical processes appropriate for the mesosphere and upper stratosphere. The first simulation used Rayleigh friction to represent gravity wave drag in the middle atmosphere and although it was able to close the mesospheric jets it severely damped the diurnal tide. Reduced Rayleigh friction allowed the tide to penetrate to thermospheric heights but did not close the jets. A gravity wave parameterization developed by Fritts and Lu (1993) allows both features to exist simultaneously with the structure of tides and mean flow dependent upon the strength of the gravity wave source. The model calculates a changing dynamic structure with the mean flow and diurnal tide dominant in the mesosphere, the in-situ generated semi-diurnal tide dominating the lower thermosphere and an in-situ generated diurnal tide in the upper thermosphere. The results also show considerable interaction between dynamics and composition, especially atomic oxygen between 85 and 120 km.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Koll, Daniel D. B.; Abbot, Dorian S., E-mail: dkoll@uchicago.edu

Next-generation space telescopes will observe the atmospheres of rocky planets orbiting nearby M-dwarfs. Understanding these observations will require well-developed theory in addition to numerical simulations. Here we present theoretical models for the temperature structure and atmospheric circulation of dry, tidally locked rocky exoplanets with gray radiative transfer and test them using a general circulation model (GCM). First, we develop a radiative-convective (RC) model that captures surface temperatures of slowly rotating and cool atmospheres. Second, we show that the atmospheric circulation acts as a global heat engine, which places strong constraints on large-scale wind speeds. Third, we develop an RC-subsiding modelmore » which extends our RC model to hot and thin atmospheres. We find that rocky planets develop large day–night temperature gradients at a ratio of wave-to-radiative timescales up to two orders of magnitude smaller than the value suggested by work on hot Jupiters. The small ratio is due to the heat engine inefficiency and asymmetry between updrafts and subsidence in convecting atmospheres. Fourth, we show, using GCM simulations, that rotation only has a strong effect on temperature structure if the atmosphere is hot or thin. Our models let us map out atmospheric scenarios for planets such as GJ 1132b, and show how thermal phase curves could constrain them. Measuring phase curves of short-period planets will require similar amounts of time on the James Webb Space Telescope as detecting molecules via transit spectroscopy, so future observations should pursue both techniques.« less

Hurricane Forecasts with a Global Mesoscale-resolving Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer Preliminary Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Atlas, R.; Reale, O.; Chern, J.-D.; Li, S.-J.; Lee, T.; Chang, J.; Henze, C.; Yeh, K.-S.

2006-01-01

It is known that the General Circulation Models (GCMs) have sufficient resolution to accurately simulate hurricane near-eye structure and intensity. To overcome this limitation, the mesoscale-resolving finite-element GCM (fvGCM) has been experimentally deployed on the NASA Columbia supercomputer, and its performance is evaluated choosing hurricane Katrina as an example in this study. On late August 2005 Katrina underwent two stages of rapid intensification and became the sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Six 5-day simulations of Katrina at both 0.25 deg and 0.125 deg show comparable track forecasts, but the 0,125 deg runs provide much better intensity forecasts, producing center pressure with errors of only +/- 12 hPa. The 0.125 deg simulates better near-eye wind distributions and a more realistic average intensification rate. A convection parameterization (CP) is one of the major limitations in a GCM, the 0.125 deg run with CP disabled produces very encouraging results.

Practical global oceanic state estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wunsch, Carl; Heimbach, Patrick

2007-06-01

The problem of oceanographic state estimation, by means of an ocean general circulation model (GCM) and a multitude of observations, is described and contrasted with the meteorological process of data assimilation. In practice, all such methods reduce, on the computer, to forms of least-squares. The global oceanographic problem is at the present time focussed primarily on smoothing, rather than forecasting, and the data types are unlike meteorological ones. As formulated in the consortium Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO), an automatic differentiation tool is used to calculate the so-called adjoint code of the GCM, and the method of Lagrange multipliers used to render the problem one of unconstrained least-squares minimization. Major problems today lie less with the numerical algorithms (least-squares problems can be solved by many means) than with the issues of data and model error. Results of ongoing calculations covering the period of the World Ocean Circulation Experiment, and including among other data, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/POSEIDON, Jason-1, ERS- 1/2, ENVISAT, and GFO, a global array of profiling floats from the Argo program, and satellite gravity data from the GRACE mission, suggest that the solutions are now useful for scientific purposes. Both methodology and applications are developing in a number of different directions.

Regolith-atmosphere exchange of water in Mars' recent past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, Liam J.; Balme, Matthew R.; Lewis, Stephen R.

2017-03-01

We investigate the exchange of water vapour between the regolith and atmosphere of Mars, and how it varies with different orbital parameters, atmospheric dust contents and surface water ice reservoirs. This is achieved through the coupling of a global circulation model (GCM) and a regolith diffusion model. GCM simulations are performed for hundreds of Mars years, with additional one-dimensional simulations performed for 50 kyr. At obliquities ɛ =15∘ and 30°, the thermal inertia and albedo of the regolith have more control on the subsurface water distribution than changes to the eccentricity or solar longitude of perihelion. At ɛ =45∘ , atmospheric water vapour abundances become much larger, allowing stable subsurface ice to form in the tropics and mid-latitudes. The circulation of the atmosphere is important in producing the subsurface water distribution, with increased water content in various locations due to vapour transport by topographically-steered flows and stationary waves. As these circulation patterns are due to topographic features, it is likely the same regions will also experience locally large amounts of subsurface water at different epochs. The dustiness of the atmosphere plays an important role in the distribution of subsurface water, with a dusty atmosphere resulting in a wetter water cycle and increased stability of subsurface ice deposits.

Surface Variability of Short-wavelength Radiation and Temperature on Exoplanets around M Dwarfs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Xin; Tian, Feng; Wang, Yuwei

2017-03-10

It is a common practice to use 3D General Circulation Models (GCM) with spatial resolution of a few hundred kilometers to simulate the climate of Earth-like exoplanets. The enhanced albedo effect of clouds is especially important for exoplanets in the habitable zones around M dwarfs that likely have fixed substellar regions and substantial cloud coverage. Here, we carry out mesoscale model simulations with 3 km spatial resolution driven by the initial and boundary conditions in a 3D GCM and find that it could significantly underestimate the spatial variability of both the incident short-wavelength radiation and the temperature at planet surface.more » Our findings suggest that mesoscale models with cloud-resolving capability be considered for future studies of exoplanet climate.« less

Incoming Shortwave Fluxes at the Surface--A Comparison of GCM Results with Observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.

1994-01-01

Evidence is presented that the exam surface net radiation calculated in general circulation models at continental surfaces is mostly due to excess incoming shortwave fluxes. Based on long-term observations from 22 worldwide inland stations and results from four general circulation models the overestimate in models of 20% (11 W m2) in net radiation on an annual basis compares with 6% (9 W m2) for shortwave fluxes for the same 22 locations, or 9% (18 W m2) for a larger set of 93 stations (71 having shortwave fluxes only). For annual fluxes, these differences appear to be significant.

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

2015-01-01

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

A Variable Resolution Stretched Grid General Circulation Model: Regional Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Govindaraju, Ravi C.; Suarez, Max J.

2000-01-01

The development of and results obtained with a variable resolution stretched-grid GCM for the regional climate simulation mode, are presented. A global variable resolution stretched- grid used in the study has enhanced horizontal resolution over the U.S. as the area of interest The stretched-grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interaction& It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The major results of the study are presented for the successful stretched-grid GCM simulation of the anomalous climate event of the 1988 U.S. summer drought- The straightforward (with no updates) two month simulation is performed with 60 km regional resolution- The major drought fields, patterns and characteristics such as the time averaged 500 hPa heights precipitation and the low level jet over the drought area. appear to be close to the verifying analyses for the stretched-grid simulation- In other words, the stretched-grid GCM provides an efficient down-scaling over the area of interest with enhanced horizontal resolution. It is also shown that the GCM skill is sustained throughout the simulation extended to one year. The developed and tested in a simulation mode stretched-grid GCM is a viable tool for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Updates on Modeling the Water Cycle with the NASA Ames Mars Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, M. A.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.; Montmessin, F.; Brecht, A. S.; Urata, R.; Klassen, D. R.; Wolff, M. J.

2017-01-01

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) have made steady progress in simulating the current Mars water cycle. It is now widely recognized that clouds are a critical component that can significantly affect the nature of the simulated water cycle. Two processes in particular are key to implementing clouds in a GCM: the microphysical processes of formation and dissipation, and their radiative effects on heating/ cooling rates. Together, these processes alter the thermal structure, change the dynamics, and regulate inter-hemispheric transport. We have made considerable progress representing these processes in the NASA Ames GCM, particularly in the presence of radiatively active water ice clouds. We present the current state of our group's water cycle modeling efforts, show results from selected simulations, highlight some of the issues, and discuss avenues for further investigation.­

Parameterization of eddy sensible heat transports in a zonally averaged dynamic model of the atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genthon, Christophe; Le Treut, Herve; Sadourny, Robert; Jouzel, Jean

1990-01-01

A Charney-Branscome based parameterization has been tested as a way of representing the eddy sensible heat transports missing in a zonally averaged dynamic model (ZADM) of the atmosphere. The ZADM used is a zonally averaged version of a general circulation model (GCM). The parameterized transports in the ZADM are gaged against the corresponding fluxes explicitly simulated in the GCM, using the same zonally averaged boundary conditions in both models. The Charney-Branscome approach neglects stationary eddies and transient barotropic disturbances and relies on a set of simplifying assumptions, including the linear appoximation, to describe growing transient baroclinic eddies. Nevertheless, fairly satisfactory results are obtained when the parameterization is performed interactively with the model. Compared with noninteractive tests, a very efficient restoring feedback effect between the modeled zonal-mean climate and the parameterized meridional eddy transport is identified.

From GCM grid cell to agricultural plot: scale issues affecting modelling of climate impact

PubMed Central

Baron, Christian; Sultan, Benjamin; Balme, Maud; Sarr, Benoit; Traore, Seydou; Lebel, Thierry; Janicot, Serge; Dingkuhn, Michael

2005-01-01

General circulation models (GCM) are increasingly capable of making relevant predictions of seasonal and long-term climate variability, thus improving prospects of predicting impact on crop yields. This is particularly important for semi-arid West Africa where climate variability and drought threaten food security. Translating GCM outputs into attainable crop yields is difficult because GCM grid boxes are of larger scale than the processes governing yield, involving partitioning of rain among runoff, evaporation, transpiration, drainage and storage at plot scale. This study analyses the bias introduced to crop simulation when climatic data is aggregated spatially or in time, resulting in loss of relevant variation. A detailed case study was conducted using historical weather data for Senegal, applied to the crop model SARRA-H (version for millet). The study was then extended to a 10°N–17° N climatic gradient and a 31 year climate sequence to evaluate yield sensitivity to the variability of solar radiation and rainfall. Finally, a down-scaling model called LGO (Lebel–Guillot–Onibon), generating local rain patterns from grid cell means, was used to restore the variability lost by aggregation. Results indicate that forcing the crop model with spatially aggregated rainfall causes yield overestimations of 10–50% in dry latitudes, but nearly none in humid zones, due to a biased fraction of rainfall available for crop transpiration. Aggregation of solar radiation data caused significant bias in wetter zones where radiation was limiting yield. Where climatic gradients are steep, these two situations can occur within the same GCM grid cell. Disaggregation of grid cell means into a pattern of virtual synoptic stations having high-resolution rainfall distribution removed much of the bias caused by aggregation and gave realistic simulations of yield. It is concluded that coupling of GCM outputs with plot level crop models can cause large systematic errors due to scale incompatibility. These errors can be avoided by transforming GCM outputs, especially rainfall, to simulate the variability found at plot level. PMID:16433096

Coupling of a Simple 3-Layer Snow Model to GISS GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleinov, I.

2001-12-01

Appropriate simulation of the snow cover dynamics is an important issue for the General Circulation Models (GCMs). The presence of snow has a significant impact on ground albedo and on heat and moisture balance. A 3-layer snow model similar to the one proposed by Lynch-Stieglitz was developed with the purpose of using it inside the GCM developed in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS). The water transport between the layers is modeled explicitly while the heat balance is computed implicitly between the snow layers and semi-implicitly on the surface. The processes of melting and refreezing and compactification of layers under the gravitational force are modeled appropriately. It was noticed that implicit computation of the heat transport can cause a significant under- or over-estimation of the incoming heat flux when the temperature of the upper snow layer is equal to 0 C. This may lead in particular to delayed snow melting in spring. To remedy this problem a special flux-control algorithm was added to the model, which checks computed flux for possible errors and if such are detected the heat transport is recomputed again with the appropriate corrections. The model was tested off-line with Sleepers River forcing data and exhibited a good agreement between simulated and observed quantities for snow depth, snow density and snow temperature. The model was then incorporated into the GISS GCM. Inside the GCM the model is driven completely by the data simulated by other parts of the GCM. The screening effect of the vegetation is introduced by means of masking depth. For a thin snowpack a fractional cover is implemented so that the total thickness of the the snow is never less then 10 cm (rather, the areal fraction of the snow cover decreases when it melts). The model was tested with 6 year long GCM speed-up runs. It proved to be stable and produced reasonable results for the global snow cover. In comparison to the old GISS GCM snow model (which was incorporating the snow into the first soil layer) the new snow model has better insulating properties, thus preventing the ground from overcooling in winter. It also provides better simulation for water retention and release by the snow which results in more physical ground water runoff.

Global scale diagnoses of FGGE data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Paegle, J.

1985-01-01

Descriptive global scale diagnoses of the First Global Atmospheric Research Experiment SOP-1 analyses were made and compared against controlled, real data integrations of the Goddard Laboratory of Atmospheric Science (GLAS) general circulation model (GCM) as well as other data sets. The effects of critical latitudes were studied; the influence of tropical wind data and latent heating upon the GLAS GCM was diagnosed; planetary wave structure on various time scales from the diurnal to the monthly was studied; and the GLAS analyses were compared with other analyses. Short term controlled GLAS GCM integrations show that: (1) the inclusion of tropical wind data in real data integrations has an important influence in the mid-latitude prediction in both hemispheres; and (2) the tropical divergent wind reacts almost immediately to alteration of the tropical latent heating. The presence or absence of zonally averaged easterlies depends strongly upon the presence of tropical latent heating.

Tropical cloud feedbacks and natural variability of climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, R. L.; Del Genio, A. D.

1994-01-01

Simulations of natural variability by two general circulation models (GCMs) are examined. One GCM is a sector model, allowing relatively rapid integration without simplification of the model physics, which would potentially exclude mechanisms of variability. Two mechanisms are found in which tropical surface temperature and sea surface temperature (SST) vary on interannual and longer timescales. Both are related to changes in cloud cover that modulate SST through the surface radiative flux. Over the equatorial ocean, SST and surface temperature vary on an interannual timescale, which is determined by the magnitude of the associated cloud cover anomalies. Over the subtropical ocean, variations in low cloud cover drive SST variations. In the sector model, the variability has no preferred timescale, but instead is characterized by a 'red' spectrum with increasing power at longer periods. In the terrestrial GCM, SST variability associated with low cloud anomalies has a decadal timescale and is the dominant form of global temperature variability. Both GCMs are coupled to a mixed layer ocean model, where dynamical heat transports are prescribed, thus filtering out El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and thermohaline circulation variability. The occurrence of variability in the absence of dynamical ocean feedbacks suggests that climatic variability on long timescales can arise from atmospheric processes alone.

Surface-Atmosphere Connections on Titan: A New Window into Terrestrial Hydroclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, Sean

This dissertation investigates the coupling between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and surface processes on Titan, with a particular focus on methane precipitation and its influence on surface geomorphology and hydrology. As the only body in the Solar System with an active hydrologic cycle other than Earth, Titan presents a valuable laboratory for studying principles of hydroclimate on terrestrial planets. Idealized general circulation models (GCMs) are used here to test hypotheses regarding Titan's surface-atmosphere connections. First, an Earth-like GCM simulated over a range of rotation rates is used to evaluate the effect of rotation rate on seasonal monsoon behavior. Slower rotation rates result in poleward migration of summer rain, indicating a large-scale atmospheric control on Titan's observed dichotomy of dry low latitudes and moist high latitudes. Second, a Titan GCM benchmarked against observations is used to analyze the magnitudes and frequencies of extreme methane rainstorms as simulated by the model. Regional patterns in these extreme events correlate well with observed geomorphic features, with the most extreme rainstorms occurring in mid-latitude regions associated with high alluvial fan concentrations. Finally, a planetary surface hydrology scheme is developed and incorporated into a Titan GCM to evaluate the roles of surface flow, subsurface flow, infiltration, and groundmethane evaporation in Titan's climate. The model reproduces Titan's observed surface liquid and cloud distributions, and reaches an equilibrium state with limited interhemispheric transport where atmospheric transport is approximately balanced by subsurface transport. The equilibrium state suggests that Titan's current hemispheric surface liquid asymmetry, favoring methane accumulation in the north, is stable in the modern climate.

A System of Conservative Regridding for Ice-Atmosphere Coupling in a General Circulation Model (GCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fischer, R.; Nowicki, S.; Kelley, M.; Schmidt, G. A.

2014-01-01

The method of elevation classes, in which the ice surface model is run at multiple elevations within each grid cell, has proven to be a useful way for a low-resolution atmosphere inside a general circulation model (GCM) to produce high-resolution downscaled surface mass balance fields for use in one-way studies coupling atmospheres and ice flow models. Past uses of elevation classes have failed to conserve mass and energy because the transformation used to regrid to the atmosphere was inconsistent with the transformation used to downscale to the ice model. This would cause problems for two-way coupling. A strategy that resolves this conservation issue has been designed and is presented here. The approach identifies three grids between which data must be regridded and five transformations between those grids required by a typical coupled atmosphere-ice flow model. This paper develops a theoretical framework for the problem and shows how each of these transformations may be achieved in a consistent, conservative manner. These transformations are implemented in Glint2, a library used to couple atmosphere models with ice models. Source code and documentation are available for download. Confounding real-world issues are discussed, including the use of projections for ice modeling, how to handle dynamically changing ice geometry, and modifications required for finite element ice models.

Climatic impact of Amazon deforestation - a mechanistic model study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ning Zeng; Dickinson, R.E.; Xubin Zeng

1996-04-01

Recent general circulation model (GCM) experiments suggest a drastic change in the regional climate, especially the hydrological cycle, after hypothesized Amazon basinwide deforestation. To facilitate the theoretical understanding os such a change, we develop an intermediate-level model for tropical climatology, including atmosphere-land-ocean interaction. The model consists of linearized steady-state primitive equations with simplified thermodynamics. A simple hydrological cycle is also included. Special attention has been paid to land-surface processes. It generally better simulates tropical climatology and the ENSO anomaly than do many of the previous simple models. The climatic impact of Amazon deforestation is studied in the context of thismore » model. Model results show a much weakened Atlantic Walker-Hadley circulation as a result of the existence of a strong positive feedback loop in the atmospheric circulation system and the hydrological cycle. The regional climate is highly sensitive to albedo change and sensitive to evapotranspiration change. The pure dynamical effect of surface roughness length on convergence is small, but the surface flow anomaly displays intriguing features. Analysis of the thermodynamic equation reveals that the balance between convective heating, adiabatic cooling, and radiation largely determines the deforestation response. Studies of the consequences of hypothetical continuous deforestation suggest that the replacement of forest by desert may be able to sustain a dry climate. Scaling analysis motivated by our modeling efforts also helps to interpret the common results of many GCM simulations. When a simple mixed-layer ocean model is coupled with the atmospheric model, the results suggest a 1{degrees}C decrease in SST gradient across the equatorial Atlantic Ocean in response to Amazon deforestation. The magnitude depends on the coupling strength. 66 refs., 16 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Study of the thermospheric and ionospheric response to the 2009 sudden stratospheric warming using TIME-GCM and GSM TIP models: First results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klimenko, M. V.; Klimenko, V. V.; Bessarab, F. S.; Korenkov, Yu N.; Liu, Hanli; Goncharenko, L. P.; Tolstikov, M. V.

2015-09-01

This paper presents a study of mesosphere and low thermosphere influence on ionospheric disturbances during 2009 major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. This period was characterized by extremely low solar and geomagnetic activity. The study was performed using two first principal models: thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) and global self-consistent model of thermosphere, ionosphere, and protonosphere (GSM TIP). The stratospheric anomalies during SSW event were modeled by specifying the temperature and density perturbations at the lower boundary of the TIME-GCM (30 km altitude) according to data from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Then TIME-GCM output at 80 km was used as lower boundary conditions for driving GSM TIP model runs. We compare models' results with ground-based ionospheric data at low latitudes obtained by GPS receivers in the American longitudinal sector. GSM TIP simulation predicts the occurrence of the quasi-wave vertical structure in neutral temperature disturbances at 80-200 km altitude, and the positive and negative disturbances in total electron content at low latitude during the 2009 SSW event. According to our model results the formation mechanisms of the low-latitude ionospheric response are the disturbances in the n(O)/n(N2) ratio and thermospheric wind. The change in zonal electric field is key mechanism driving the ionospheric response at low latitudes, but our model results do not completely reproduce the variability in zonal electric fields (vertical plasma drift) at low latitudes.

The Effect of Surface Ice and Topography on the Atmospheric Circulation and Distribution of Nitrogen Ice on Pluto

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafkin, Scot C. R.; Soto, Alejandro; Michaels, Timothy I.

2016-10-01

A newly developed general circulation model (GCM) for Pluto is used to investigate the impact of a heterogeneous distribution of nitrogen surface ice and large scale topography on Pluto's atmospheric circulation. The GCM is based on the GFDL Flexible Modeling System (FSM). Physics include a gray model radiative-conductive scheme, subsurface conduction, and a nitrogen volatile cycle. The radiative-conductive model takes into account the 2.3, 3.3 and 7.8 μm bands of CH4 and CO, including non-local thermodynamic equilibrium effects. including non-local thermodynamic equilibrium effects. The nitrogen volatile cycle is based on a vapor pressure equilibrium assumption between the atmosphere and surface. Prior to the arrival of the New Horizons spacecraft, the expectation was that the volatile ice distribution on the surface of Pluto would be strongly controlled by the latitudinal temperature gradient. If this were the case, then Pluto would have broad latitudinal bands of both ice covered surface and ice free surface, as dictated by the season. Further, the circulation, and the thus the transport of volatiles, was thought to be driven almost exclusively by sublimation and deposition flows associated with the volatile cycle. In contrast to expectations, images from New Horizon showed an extremely complex, heterogeneous distribution of surface ices draped over substantial and variable topography. To produce such an ice distribution, the atmospheric circulation and volatile transport must be more complex than previously envisioned. Simulations where topography, surface ice distributions, and volatile cycle physics are added individually and in various combinations are used to individually quantify the importance of the general circulation, topography, surface ice distributions, and condensation flows. It is shown that even regional patches of ice or large craters can have global impacts on the atmospheric circulation, the volatile cycle, and hence, the distribution of surface ices. The work demonstrates that explaining Pluto's volatile cycle and the expression of that cycle in the surface ice distributions requires consideration of atmospheric processes beyond simple vapor pressure equilibrium arguments.

Future discharge drought across climate regions around the world modelled with a synthetic hydrological modelling approach forced by three general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanders, N.; Van Lanen, H. A. J.

2015-03-01

Hydrological drought characteristics (drought in groundwater and streamflow) likely will change in the 21st century as a result of climate change. The magnitude and directionality of these changes and their dependency on climatology and catchment characteristics, however, is uncertain. In this study a conceptual hydrological model was forced by downscaled and bias-corrected outcome from three general circulation models for the SRES A2 emission scenario (GCM forced models), and the WATCH Forcing Data set (reference model). The threshold level method was applied to investigate drought occurrence, duration and severity. Results for the control period (1971-2000) show that the drought characteristics of each GCM forced model reasonably agree with the reference model for most of the climate types, suggesting that the climate models' results after post-processing produce realistic outcomes for global drought analyses. For the near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) the GCM forced models show a decrease in drought occurrence for all major climates around the world and increase of both average drought duration and deficit volume of the remaining drought events. The largest decrease in hydrological drought occurrence is expected in cold (D) climates where global warming results in a decreased length of the snow season and an increased precipitation. In the dry (B) climates the smallest decrease in drought occurrence is expected to occur, which probably will lead to even more severe water scarcity. However, in the extreme climate regions (desert and polar), the drought analysis for the control period showed that projections of hydrological drought characteristics are most uncertain. On a global scale the increase in hydrological drought duration and severity in multiple regions will lead to a higher impact of drought events, which should motivate water resource managers to timely anticipate the increased risk of more severe drought in groundwater and streamflow and to design pro-active measures.

Mid-Western US heavy summer-precipitation in regional and global climate models: the impact on model skill and consensus through an analogue lens

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Xiang; Schlosser, C. Adam

2018-04-01

Regional climate models (RCMs) can simulate heavy precipitation more accurately than general circulation models (GCMs) through more realistic representation of topography and mesoscale processes. Analogue methods of downscaling, which identify the large-scale atmospheric conditions associated with heavy precipitation, can also produce more accurate and precise heavy precipitation frequency in GCMs than the simulated precipitation. In this study, we examine the performances of the analogue method versus direct simulation, when applied to RCM and GCM simulations, in detecting present-day and future changes in summer (JJA) heavy precipitation over the Midwestern United States. We find analogue methods are comparable to MERRA-2 and its bias-corrected precipitation in characterizing the occurrence and interannual variations of observed heavy precipitation events, all significantly improving upon MERRA precipitation. For the late twentieth-century heavy precipitation frequency, RCM precipitation improves upon the corresponding driving GCM with greater accuracy yet comparable inter-model discrepancies, while both RCM- and GCM-based analogue results outperform their model-simulated precipitation counterparts in terms of accuracy and model consensus. For the projected trends in heavy precipitation frequency through the mid twenty-first century, analogue method also manifests its superiority to direct simulation with reduced intermodel disparities, while the RCM-based analogue and simulated precipitation do not demonstrate a salient improvement (in model consensus) over the GCM-based assessment. However, a number of caveats preclude any overall judgement, and further work—over any region of interest—should include a larger sample of GCMs and RCMs as well as ensemble simulations to comprehensively account for internal variability.

A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liang, XU; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Wood, Eric F.; Burges, Stephen J.

1994-01-01

A generalization of the single soil layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrological model previously implemented in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation model (GCM) is described. The new model is comprised of a two-layer characterization of the soil column, and uses an aerodynamic representation of the latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The infiltration algorithm for the upper layer is essentially the same as for the single layer VIC model, while the lower layer drainage formulation is of the form previously implemented in the Max-Planck-Institut GCM. The model partitions the area of interest (e.g., grid cell) into multiple land surface cover types; for each land cover type the fraction of roots in the upper and lower zone is specified. Evapotranspiration consists of three components: canopy evaporation, evaporation from bare soils, and transpiration, which is represented using a canopy and architectural resistance formulation. Once the latent heat flux has been computed, the surface energy balance is iterated to solve for the land surface temperature at each time step. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatological data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters, and surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) intensive field campaigns in the summer-fall of 1987 to validate the surface energy fluxes.

Three dimensional global modeling of atmospheric CO2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fung, I.; Hansen, J.; Rind, D.

1983-01-01

A model was developed to study the prospects of extracting information on carbon dioxide sources and sinks from observed CO2 variations. The approach uses a three dimensional global transport model, based on winds from a 3-D general circulation model (GCM), to advect CO2 noninteractively, i.e., as a tracer, with specified sources and sinks of CO2 at the surface. The 3-D model employed is identified and biosphere, ocean and fossil fuel sources and sinks are discussed. Some preliminary model results are presented.

Prescription of land-surface boundary conditions in GISS GCM 2: A simple method based on high-resolution vegetation data bases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matthews, E.

1984-01-01

A simple method was developed for improved prescription of seasonal surface characteristics and parameterization of land-surface processes in climate models. This method, developed for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model II (GISS GCM II), maintains the spatial variability of fine-resolution land-cover data while restricting to 8 the number of vegetation types handled in the model. This was achieved by: redefining the large number of vegetation classes in the 1 deg x 1 deg resolution Matthews (1983) vegetation data base as percentages of 8 simple types; deriving roughness length, field capacity, masking depth and seasonal, spectral reflectivity for the 8 types; and aggregating these surface features from the 1 deg x 1 deg resolution to coarser model resolutions, e.g., 8 deg latitude x 10 deg longitude or 4 deg latitude x 5 deg longitude.

A multi-scale methodology for comparing GCM and RCM results over the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuels, Rana; Krichak, Simon; Breitgand, Joseph; Alpert, Pinhas

2010-05-01

The importance of skillful climate modeling is increasingly being realized as results are being incorporated into environmental, economic, and even business planning. Global circulation models (GCMs) employed by the IPCC provide results at spatial scales of hundreds of kilometers, which is useful for understanding global trends but not appropriate for use as input into regional and local impacts models used to inform policy and development. To address this shortcoming, regional climate models (RCMs) which dynamically downscale the results of the GCMs are used. In this study we present first results of a dynamically downscaled RCM focusing on the Eastern Mediterranean region. For the historical 1960-2000 time period, results at a spatial scale of both 25 km and 50 km are compared with historical station data from 5 locations across Israel as well as with the results of 3 GCM models (ECHAM5, NOAA GFDL, and CCCMA) at annual, monthly and daily time scales. Results from a recently completed Japanese GCM at a spatial scale of 20 km are also included. For the historical validation period, we show that as spatial scale increases the skill in capturing annual and inter-annual temperature and rainfall also increases. However, for intra-seasonal rainfall characteristics important for hydrological and agricultural planning (eg. dry and wet spells, number of rain days) the GCM results (including the 20 km Japanese model) capture the historical trends better than the dynamically downscaled RegCM. For future scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes, we compare results across the models for the available time periods, generating a range of future trends.

On the Origin of the Bolivian High and Related Circulation Features of the South American Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, J. D.; Cook, K. H.

1997-03-01

The climatological structure in the upper-tropospheric summertime circulation over South America is diagnosed using a GCM (with and without South American topography), a linear model, and observational data. Emphasis is placed on understanding the origin of observed features such as the Bolivian high and the accompanying `Nordeste low' to the east. Results from the linear model indicate that these two features are generated in response to precipitation over the Amazon basin, central Andes, and South Atlantic convergence zone, with African precipitation also playing a crucial role in the formation of the Nordeste low. The direct mechanical and sensible heating effects of the Andes are minimal, acting only to induce a weak lee trough in midlatitudes and a shallow monsoonal circulation over the central Andes. In the GCM, the effects of the Andes include a strengthening of the Bolivian high and northward shift of the Nordeste low, primarily through changes in the precipitation field. The position of the Bolivian high is primarily determined by Amazonian precipitation and is little affected by the removal of the Andes. Strong subsidence to the west of the high is found to be important for the maintenance of the high's warm core, while large-scale convective overshooting to the east is responsible for a layer of cold air above the high.

On the Causes and Dynamics of the Early Twentieth Century North American Pluvial

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Seager, Richard; Miller, Ron L.

2011-01-01

The early twentieth century North American pluvial (1905-1917) was one of the most extreme wet periods of the last five hundred years and directly led to overly generous water allotments in the water-limited American West. Here we examine the causes and dynamics of the pluvial event using a combination of observation-based data sets and general circulation model (GCM) experiments. The character of the moisture surpluses during the pluvial differed by region, alternately driven by increased precipitation (the Southwest), low evaporation from cool temperatures (the Central Plains), or a combination of the two (the Pacific Northwest). Cool temperature anomalies covered much of the west and persisted through most months, part of a globally extensive period of cooler land and sea surface temperatures (SST). Circulation during boreal winter favored increased moisture import and precipitation in the southwest, while other regions and seasons were characterized by near normal or reduced precipitation. Anomalies in the mean circulation, precipitation, and SST fields are partially consistent with the relatively weak El Nino forcing during the pluvial, and also reflect the impact of positive departures in the Arctic Oscillation that occurred in ten of the thirteen pluvial winters. Differences between the reanalysis dataset, an independent statistical drought model, and GCM simulations highlight some of the remaining uncertainties in understanding the full extent of SST forcing of North American hydroclimatic variability.

Improving the Amazonian Hydrologic Cycle in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere, Single Column Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harper, A. B.; Denning, S.; Baker, I.; Prihodko, L.; Branson, M.

2006-12-01

We have coupled a land-surface model, the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB3), to a single column of the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU-GCM) in the Amazon River Basin. This is a preliminary step in the broader goal of improved simulation of Basin-wide hydrology. A previous version of the coupled model (SiB2) showed drought and catastrophic dieback of the Amazon rain forest. SiB3 includes updated soil hydrology and root physiology. Our test area for the coupled single column model is near Santarem, Brazil, where measurements from the km 83 flux tower in the Tapajos National Forest can be used to evaluate model output. The model was run for 2001 using NCEP2 Reanalysis as driver data. Preliminary results show that the updated biosphere model coupled to the GCM produces improved simulations of the seasonal cycle of surface water balance and precipitation. Comparisons of the diurnal and seasonal cycles of surface fluxes are also being made.

Can we use Earth Observations to improve monthly water level forecasts?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, L. J.; Villarini, G.

2017-12-01

Dynamical-statistical hydrologic forecasting approaches benefit from different strengths in comparison with traditional hydrologic forecasting systems: they are computationally efficient, can integrate and `learn' from a broad selection of input data (e.g., General Circulation Model (GCM) forecasts, Earth Observation time series, teleconnection patterns), and can take advantage of recent progress in machine learning (e.g. multi-model blending, post-processing and ensembling techniques). Recent efforts to develop a dynamical-statistical ensemble approach for forecasting seasonal streamflow using both GCM forecasts and changing land cover have shown promising results over the U.S. Midwest. Here, we use climate forecasts from several GCMs of the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME) alongside 15-minute stage time series from the National River Flow Archive (NRFA) and land cover classes extracted from the European Space Agency's Climate Change Initiative 300 m annual Global Land Cover time series. With these data, we conduct systematic long-range probabilistic forecasting of monthly water levels in UK catchments over timescales ranging from one to twelve months ahead. We evaluate the improvement in model fit and model forecasting skill that comes from using land cover classes as predictors in the models. This work opens up new possibilities for combining Earth Observation time series with GCM forecasts to predict a variety of hazards from space using data science techniques.

Mars Ozone Absorption Line Shapes from Infrared Heterodyne Spectra Applied to GCM-Predicted Ozone Profiles and to MEX/SPICAM Column Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fast, Kelly E.; Kostiuk, T.; Annen, J.; Hewagama, T.; Delgado, J.; Livengood, T. A.; Lefevre, F.

2008-01-01

We present the application of infrared heterodyne line shapes of ozone on Mars to those produced by radiative transfer modeling of ozone profiles predicted by general circulation models (GCM), and to contemporaneous column abundances measured by Mars Express SPICAM. Ozone is an important tracer of photochemistry Mars' atmosphere, serving as an observable with which to test predictions of photochemistry-coupled GCMs. Infrared heterodyne spectroscopy at 9.5 microns with spectral resolving power >1,000,000 is the only technique that can directly measure fully-resolved line shapes of Martian ozone features from the surface of the Earth. Measurements were made with Goddard Space Flight Center's Heterodyne instrument for Planetary Wind And Composition (HIPWAC) at the NASA Infrared Telescope Facility (IRTF) on Mauna Kea, Hawaii on February 21-24 2008 UT at Ls=35deg on or near the MEX orbital path. The HIPWAC observations were used to test GCM predictions. For example, a GCM-generated ozone profile for 60degN 112degW was scaled so that a radiative transfer calculation of its absorption line shape matched an observed HIPWAC absorption feature at the same areographic position, local time, and season. The RMS deviation of the model from the data was slightly smaller for the GCM-generated profile than for a line shape produced by a constant-with-height profile, even though the total column abundances were the same, showing potential for testing and constraining GCM ozone-profiles. The resulting ozone column abundance from matching the model to the HIPWAC line shape was 60% higher than that observed by SPICAM at the same areographic position one day earlier and 2.5 hours earlier in local time. This could be due to day-to-day, diurnal, or north polar region variability, or to measurement sensitivity to the ozone column and its distribution, and these possibilities will be explored. This work was supported by NASA's Planetary Astronomy Program.

Interannual Variability of Martian Global Dust Storms: Simulations with a Low-Order Model of the General Circulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pankine, A. A.; Ingersoll, Andrew P.

2002-01-01

We present simulations of the interannual variability of martian global dust storms (GDSs) with a simplified low-order model (LOM) of the general circulation. The simplified model allows one to conduct computationally fast long-term simulations of the martian climate system. The LOM is constructed by Galerkin projection of a 2D (zonally averaged) general circulation model (GCM) onto a truncated set of basis functions. The resulting LOM consists of 12 coupled nonlinear ordinary differential equations describing atmospheric dynamics and dust transport within the Hadley cell. The forcing of the model is described by simplified physics based on Newtonian cooling and Rayleigh friction. The atmosphere and surface are coupled: atmospheric heating depends on the dustiness of the atmosphere, and the surface dust source depends on the strength of the atmospheric winds. Parameters of the model are tuned to fit the output of the NASA AMES GCM and the fit is generally very good. Interannual variability of GDSs is possible in the IBM, but only when stochastic forcing is added to the model. The stochastic forcing could be provided by transient weather systems or some surface process such as redistribution of the sand particles in storm generating zones on the surface. The results are sensitive to the value of the saltation threshold, which hints at a possible feedback between saltation threshold and dust storm activity. According to this hypothesis, erodable material builds up its a result of a local process, whose effect is to lower the saltation threshold until a GDS occurs. The saltation threshold adjusts its value so that dust storms are barely able to occur.

Adaptive Error Estimation in Linearized Ocean General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chechelnitsky, Michael Y.

1999-01-01

Data assimilation methods are routinely used in oceanography. The statistics of the model and measurement errors need to be specified a priori. This study addresses the problem of estimating model and measurement error statistics from observations. We start by testing innovation based methods of adaptive error estimation with low-dimensional models in the North Pacific (5-60 deg N, 132-252 deg E) to TOPEX/POSEIDON (TIP) sea level anomaly data, acoustic tomography data from the ATOC project, and the MIT General Circulation Model (GCM). A reduced state linear model that describes large scale internal (baroclinic) error dynamics is used. The methods are shown to be sensitive to the initial guess for the error statistics and the type of observations. A new off-line approach is developed, the covariance matching approach (CMA), where covariance matrices of model-data residuals are "matched" to their theoretical expectations using familiar least squares methods. This method uses observations directly instead of the innovations sequence and is shown to be related to the MT method and the method of Fu et al. (1993). Twin experiments using the same linearized MIT GCM suggest that altimetric data are ill-suited to the estimation of internal GCM errors, but that such estimates can in theory be obtained using acoustic data. The CMA is then applied to T/P sea level anomaly data and a linearization of a global GFDL GCM which uses two vertical modes. We show that the CMA method can be used with a global model and a global data set, and that the estimates of the error statistics are robust. We show that the fraction of the GCM-T/P residual variance explained by the model error is larger than that derived in Fukumori et al.(1999) with the method of Fu et al.(1993). Most of the model error is explained by the barotropic mode. However, we find that impact of the change in the error statistics on the data assimilation estimates is very small. This is explained by the large representation error, i.e. the dominance of the mesoscale eddies in the T/P signal, which are not part of the 21 by 1" GCM. Therefore, the impact of the observations on the assimilation is very small even after the adjustment of the error statistics. This work demonstrates that simult&neous estimation of the model and measurement error statistics for data assimilation with global ocean data sets and linearized GCMs is possible. However, the error covariance estimation problem is in general highly underdetermined, much more so than the state estimation problem. In other words there exist a very large number of statistical models that can be made consistent with the available data. Therefore, methods for obtaining quantitative error estimates, powerful though they may be, cannot replace physical insight. Used in the right context, as a tool for guiding the choice of a small number of model error parameters, covariance matching can be a useful addition to the repertory of tools available to oceanographers.

Sensitivity of Boreal-Summer Circulation and Precipitation to Atmospheric Aerosols in Selected Regions: Part I Africa and India

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sud, Yogesh C.; Wilcox, Eric; Lau, William K.

2009-10-23

Version-4 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-4) General Circulation Model (GCM) was employed to assess the influence of potential changes in aerosols on the regional circulation, ambient temperatures, and precipitation in four selected regions: India and Africa (current paper), as well as North and South America (companion paper). Ensemble-simulations were carried out with the GCM to assess the aerosol direct and indirect effects, hereafter ADE and AIE. Each simulation was started from the NCEP-analyzed initial conditions for May 1 and was integrated through May-June-July-August of each year: 1982-1987 to provide an ensemble set of six simulations. In the firstmore » set, called the baseline experiment (#1), climatological aerosols were prescribed. The next two experiments (#2 and #3) had two sets of simulations each: one with 2X and another with 1/2X the climatological aerosols over each of the four selected regions. In experiment#2, the anomaly regions were advectively restricted (AR), i.e., the large-scale prognostic fields outside the aerosol anomaly regions were prescribed while in experiment#3, the anomaly regions were advectively Interactive (AI) as is the case in a normal GCM integrations, but with the same aerosols anomalies as in experiment #2. Intercomparisons of circulation, diabatic heating, and precipitation difference fields showed large disparities among the AR and AI simulations, which raised serious questions about the AR assumption, commonly invoked in regional climate simulation studies. Consequently AI simulation mode was chosen for the subsequent studies. Two more experiments (#4 and #5) were performed in the AI mode in which ADE and AIE were activated one at a time. The results showed that ADE and AIE work in concert to make the joint influences larger than sum of each acting alone. Moreover, the ADE and AIE influences were vastly different for the Indian and Africa regions, which suggest an imperative need to include them rationally in climate models. We also found that the aerosol induced increase of tropical cirrus clouds would potentially offset any cirrus thinning that may occur due to global warming in response to CO2 increase.« less

Prognostic Aspects of Sub-seasonal Rainfall Characteristics using the Outputs of General Circulation Model: An Application of Statistical Downscaling and Temporal Disaggregation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Mohanty, U. C.; Ghosh, K.

2015-12-01

Most regions of India experience varied rainfall duration during the southwest monsoon, changes in which exhibit major impact not only agriculture, but also other sectors like hydrology, agriculture, food and fodder storage etc. In addition, changes in sub-seasonal rainfall characteristics highly impact the rice production. As part of the endeavor seasonal climate outlook, as well as information for weather within climate may be helpful for advance planning and risk management in agriculture. The General Circulation Model (GCM) provide an alternative to gather information for weather within climate but variability is very low in comparison to observation. On the other hand, the spatial resolution of GCM predicted rainfall is not found at the observed station/grid point. To tackle the problem, initially a statistical downscaling over 19 station of Odisha state is undertaken using the atmospheric parameters predicted by a GCM (NCEP-CFSv2). For the purpose, an extended domain is taken for analyzing the significant zone for the atmospheric parameters like zonal wind at 850hPa, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), geopotential height. A statistical model using the pattern projection method is further developed based on empirical orthogonal function. The downscaled rainfall is found better in association with station observation in comparison to raw GCM prediction in view of deterministic and probabilistic skill measure. Further, the sub-seasonal and seasonal forecast from the GCMs can be used at different time steps for risk management. Therefore, downscaled seasonal/monthly rainfall is further converted to sub-seasonal/daily time scale using a non-homogeneous markov model. The simulated weather sequences are further compared with the observed sequence in view of categorical rainfall events. The outcomes suggest that the rainfall amount are overestimated for excess rainfall and henceforth larger excess rainfall events can be realized. The skill for prediction of rainfall events corresponding to lower thresholds is found higher. A detail discussion regarding skill of spatial downscale rainfall at observed stations and its further representation of sub-seasonal characteristics (spells, less rainfall, heavy rainfall, and moderate rainfall events) of rainfall for disaggregated outputs will be presented.

On the Predictability of Northeast Monsoon Rainfall over South Peninsular India in General Circulation Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nair, Archana; Acharya, Nachiketa; Singh, Ankita; Mohanty, U. C.; Panda, T. C.

2013-11-01

In this study the predictability of northeast monsoon (Oct-Nov-Dec) rainfall over peninsular India by eight general circulation model (GCM) outputs was analyzed. These GCM outputs (forecasts for the whole season issued in September) were compared with high-resolution observed gridded rainfall data obtained from the India Meteorological Department for the period 1982-2010. Rainfall, interannual variability (IAV), correlation coefficients, and index of agreement were examined for the outputs of eight GCMs and compared with observation. It was found that the models are able to reproduce rainfall and IAV to different extents. The predictive power of GCMs was also judged by determining the signal-to-noise ratio and the external error variance; it was noted that the predictive power of the models was usually very low. To examine dominant modes of interannual variability, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was also conducted. EOF analysis of the models revealed they were capable of representing the observed precipitation variability to some extent. The teleconnection between the sea surface temperature (SST) and northeast monsoon rainfall was also investigated and results suggest that during OND the SST over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal, the central Pacific Ocean (over Nino3 region), and the north and south Atlantic Ocean enhances northeast monsoon rainfall. This observed phenomenon is only predicted by the CCM3v6 model.

Stable "Waterbelt" climates controlled by tropical ocean heat transport: A nonlinear coupled climate mechanism of relevance to Snowball Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rose, Brian E. J.

2015-02-01

Ongoing controversy about Neoproterozoic Snowball Earth events motivates a theoretical study of stability and hysteresis properties of very cold climates. A coupled atmosphere-ocean-sea ice general circulation model (GCM) has four stable equilibria ranging from 0% to 100% ice cover, including a "Waterbelt" state with tropical sea ice. All four states are found at present-day insolation and greenhouse gas levels and with two idealized ocean basin configurations. The Waterbelt is stabilized against albedo feedback by intense but narrow wind-driven ocean overturning cells that deliver roughly 100 W m-2 heating to the ice edges. This requires three-way feedback between winds, ocean circulation, and ice extent in which circulation is shifted equatorward, following the baroclinicity at the ice margins. The thermocline is much shallower and outcrops in the tropics. Sea ice is snow-covered everywhere and has a minuscule seasonal cycle. The Waterbelt state spans a 46 W m-2 range in solar constant, has a significant hysteresis, and permits near-freezing equatorial surface temperatures. Additional context is provided by a slab ocean GCM and a diffusive energy balance model, both with prescribed ocean heat transport (OHT). Unlike the fully coupled model, these support no more than one stable ice margin, the position of which is slaved to regions of rapid poleward decrease in OHT convergence. Wide ranges of different climates (including the stable Waterbelt) are found by varying the magnitude and spatial structure of OHT in both models. Some thermodynamic arguments for the sensitivity of climate, and ice extent to OHT are presented.

Stationary eddies in the Mars general circulation as simulated by the NASA-Ames GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barnes, J. R.; Pollack, J. B.; Haberle, Robert M.

1993-01-01

Quasistationary eddies are prominent in a large set of simulations of the Mars general circulation performed with the NASA-Ames GCM. Various spacecraft observations have at least hinted at the existence of such eddies in the Mars atmosphere. The GCM stationary eddies appear to be forced primarily by the large Mars topography, and (to a much lesser degree) by spatial variations in the surface albedo and thermal inertia. The stationary eddy circulations exhibit largest amplitudes at high altitudes (above 30-40 km) in the winter extratropical regions. In these regions they are of planetary scale, characterized largely by zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2. Southern Hemisphere winter appears to be dominated by a very strong wave 1 pattern, with both waves 1 and 2 being prominent in the Northern Hemisphere winter regime. This difference seems to be basically understandable in terms of differences in the topography in the two hemispheres. The stationary eddies in the northern winter extratropics are found to increase in amplitude with dust loading. This behavior appears to be at least partly associated with changes in the structure of the zonal-mean flow that favor a greater response to wave 1 topographic forcing. There are also strong stationary eddy circulations in the tropics and in the summer hemisphere. The eddies in the summer subtropics and extratropics arc substantially stronger in southern summer than in northern summer. The summer hemisphere stationary circulations are relatively shallow and are characterized by smaller zonal scales than those in the winter extratropics.

Toward Realistic Simulation of low-Level Clouds Using a Multiscale Modeling Framework With a Third-Order Turbulence Closure in its Cloud-Resolving Model Component

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Kuan-Man; Cheng, Anning

2010-01-01

This study presents preliminary results from a multiscale modeling framework (MMF) with an advanced third-order turbulence closure in its cloud-resolving model (CRM) component. In the original MMF, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.5) is used as the host general circulation model (GCM), and the System for Atmospheric Modeling with a first-order turbulence closure is used as the CRM for representing cloud processes in each grid box of the GCM. The results of annual and seasonal means and diurnal variability are compared between the modified and original MMFs and the CAM3.5. The global distributions of low-level cloud amounts and precipitation and the amounts of low-level clouds in the subtropics and middle-level clouds in mid-latitude storm track regions in the modified MMF show substantial improvement relative to the original MMF when both are compared to observations. Some improvements can also be seen in the diurnal variability of precipitation.

Regional Climate Simulation with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM: The Regional Down-Scaling Effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.; Takacs, Lawrence L.; Suarez, Max; Sawyer, William; Govindaraju, Ravi C.

1999-01-01

The results obtained with the variable resolution stretched grid (SG) GEOS GCM (Goddard Earth Observing System General Circulation Models) are discussed, with the emphasis on the regional down-scaling effects and their dependence on the stretched grid design and parameters. A variable resolution SG-GCM and SG-DAS using a global stretched grid with fine resolution over an area of interest, is a viable new approach to REGIONAL and subregional CLIMATE studies and applications. The stretched grid approach is an ideal tool for representing regional to global scale interactions. It is an alternative to the widely used nested grid approach introduced a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. The GEOS SG-GCM is used for simulations of the anomalous U.S. climate events of 1988 drought and 1993 flood, with enhanced regional resolution. The height low level jet, precipitation and other diagnostic patterns are successfully simulated and show the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest the U.S. An imitation of the nested grid approach is performed using the developed SG-DAS (Data Assimilation System) that incorporates the SG-GCM. The SG-DAS is run with withholding data over the area of interest. The design immitates the nested grid framework with boundary conditions provided from analyses. No boundary condition buffer is needed for the case due to the global domain of integration used for the SG-GCM and SG-DAS. The experiments based on the newly developed versions of the GEOS SG-GCM and SG-DAS, with finer 0.5 degree (and higher) regional resolution, are briefly discussed. The major aspects of parallelization of the SG-GCM code are outlined. The KEY OBJECTIVES of the study are: 1) obtaining an efficient DOWN-SCALING over the area of interest with fine and very fine resolution; 2) providing CONSISTENT interactions between regional and global scales including the consistent representation of regional ENERGY and WATER BALANCES; 3) providing a high computational efficiency for future SG-GCM and SG-DAS versions using PARALLEL codes.

Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huang, Shengli; Liu, Shuguang; Liu, Jinxun; Dahal, Devendra; Young, Claudia; Davis, Brian; Sohl, Terry L.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

BackgroundClimate change and the concurrent change in wildfire events and land use comprehensively affect carbon dynamics in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The purpose of this study was to project the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) under these changes from 2006 to 2050. We selected three emission scenarios and produced simulations with the CENTURY model using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for each scenario. We also incorporated projected land use change and fire occurrence into the carbon accounting.ResultsThe three GCMs showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature, but precipitation projections varied among GCMs. Total ecosystem carbon increased steadily from 7,942 gC/m2 in 2006 to 10,234 gC/m2 in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 53 gC/m2/year. About 56.6% and 27% of the increasing rate was attributed to total live carbon and total soil carbon, respectively. Net Primary Production (NPP) increased slightly from 260 gC/m2/year in 2006 to 310 gC/m2/year in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 1.22 gC/m2/year. Forest clear-cutting and fires resulted in direct carbon removal; however, the rate was low at 2.44 gC/m2/year during 2006–2050. The area of clear-cutting and wildfires in the GYE would account for 10.87% of total forested area during 2006–2050, but the predictive simulations demonstrated different spatial distributions in national forests and national parks.ConclusionsThe GYE is a carbon sink during 2006–2050. The capability of vegetation is almost double that of soil in terms of sequestering extra carbon. Clear-cutting and wildfires in GYE will affect 10.87% of total forested area, but direct carbon removal from clear-cutting and fires is 109.6 gC/m2, which accounts for only 1.2% of the mean ecosystem carbon level of 9,056 gC/m2, and thus is not significant.

Projecting the spatiotemporal carbon dynamics of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem from 2006 to 2050.

PubMed

Huang, Shengli; Liu, Shuguang; Liu, Jinxun; Dahal, Devendra; Young, Claudia; Davis, Brian; Sohl, Terry L; Hawbaker, Todd J; Sleeter, Ben; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-12-01

Climate change and the concurrent change in wildfire events and land use comprehensively affect carbon dynamics in both spatial and temporal dimensions. The purpose of this study was to project the spatial and temporal aspects of carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) under these changes from 2006 to 2050. We selected three emission scenarios and produced simulations with the CENTURY model using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) for each scenario. We also incorporated projected land use change and fire occurrence into the carbon accounting. The three GCMs showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature, but precipitation projections varied among GCMs. Total ecosystem carbon increased steadily from 7,942 gC/m 2 in 2006 to 10,234 gC/m 2 in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 53 gC/m 2 /year. About 56.6% and 27% of the increasing rate was attributed to total live carbon and total soil carbon, respectively. Net Primary Production (NPP) increased slightly from 260 gC/m 2 /year in 2006 to 310 gC/m 2 /year in 2050 with an annual rate increase of 1.22 gC/m 2 /year. Forest clear-cutting and fires resulted in direct carbon removal; however, the rate was low at 2.44 gC/m 2 /year during 2006-2050. The area of clear-cutting and wildfires in the GYE would account for 10.87% of total forested area during 2006-2050, but the predictive simulations demonstrated different spatial distributions in national forests and national parks. The GYE is a carbon sink during 2006-2050. The capability of vegetation is almost double that of soil in terms of sequestering extra carbon. Clear-cutting and wildfires in GYE will affect 10.87% of total forested area, but direct carbon removal from clear-cutting and fires is 109.6 gC/m 2 , which accounts for only 1.2% of the mean ecosystem carbon level of 9,056 gC/m 2 , and thus is not significant.

Projected strengthening of Amazonian dry season by constrained climate model simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boisier, Juan P.; Ciais, Philippe; Ducharne, Agnès; Guimberteau, Matthieu

2015-07-01

The vulnerability of Amazonian rainforest, and the ecological services it provides, depends on an adequate supply of dry-season water, either as precipitation or stored soil moisture. How the rain-bearing South American monsoon will evolve across the twenty-first century is thus a question of major interest. Extensive savanization, with its loss of forest carbon stock and uptake capacity, is an extreme although very uncertain scenario. We show that the contrasting rainfall projections simulated for Amazonia by 36 global climate models (GCMs) can be reproduced with empirical precipitation models, calibrated with historical GCM data as functions of the large-scale circulation. A set of these simple models was therefore calibrated with observations and used to constrain the GCM simulations. In agreement with the current hydrologic trends, the resulting projection towards the end of the twenty-first century is for a strengthening of the monsoon seasonal cycle, and a dry-season lengthening in southern Amazonia. With this approach, the increase in the area subjected to lengthy--savannah-prone--dry seasons is substantially larger than the GCM-simulated one. Our results confirm the dominant picture shown by the state-of-the-art GCMs, but suggest that the `model democracy' view of these impacts can be significantly underestimated.

Improving NASA's Multiscale Modeling Framework for Tropical Cyclone Climate Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, Bo-Wen; Nelson, Bron; Cheung, Samson; Tao, Wei-Kuo

2013-01-01

One of the current challenges in tropical cyclone (TC) research is how to improve our understanding of TC interannual variability and the impact of climate change on TCs. Recent advances in global modeling, visualization, and supercomputing technologies at NASA show potential for such studies. In this article, the authors discuss recent scalability improvement to the multiscale modeling framework (MMF) that makes it feasible to perform long-term TC-resolving simulations. The MMF consists of the finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM), supplemented by a copy of the Goddard cumulus ensemble model (GCE) at each of the fvGCM grid points, giving 13,104 GCE copies. The original fvGCM implementation has a 1D data decomposition; the revised MMF implementation retains the 1D decomposition for most of the code, but uses a 2D decomposition for the massive copies of GCEs. Because the vast majority of computation time in the MMF is spent computing the GCEs, this approach can achieve excellent speedup without incurring the cost of modifying the entire code. Intelligent process mapping allows differing numbers of processes to be assigned to each domain for load balancing. The revised parallel implementation shows highly promising scalability, obtaining a nearly 80-fold speedup by increasing the number of cores from 30 to 3,335.

A global data set of soil particle size properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, Robert S.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Levine, Elissa R.

1991-01-01

A standardized global data set of soil horizon thicknesses and textures (particle size distributions) was compiled. This data set will be used by the improved ground hydrology parameterization designed for the Goddard Institute for Space Studies General Circulation Model (GISS GCM) Model 3. The data set specifies the top and bottom depths and the percent abundance of sand, silt, and clay of individual soil horizons in each of the 106 soil types cataloged for nine continental divisions. When combined with the World Soil Data File, the result is a global data set of variations in physical properties throughout the soil profile. These properties are important in the determination of water storage in individual soil horizons and exchange of water with the lower atmosphere. The incorporation of this data set into the GISS GCM should improve model performance by including more realistic variability in land-surface properties.

The tropopause inversion layer in models and analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birner, T.; Sankey, D.; Shepherd, T. G.

2006-07-01

Recent high-resolution radiosonde climatologies have revealed a tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in the extratropics: temperature strongly increases just above a sharp local cold point tropopause. Here, it is asked to what extent a TIL exists in current general circulation models (GCMs) and meteorological analyses. Only a weak hint of a TIL exists in NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. In contrast, the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM), a comprehensive GCM, exhibits a TIL of realistic strength. However, in data assimilation mode CMAM exhibits a much weaker TIL, especially in the Southern Hemisphere where only coarse satellite data are available. The discrepancy between the analyses and the GCM is thus hypothesized to be mainly due to data assimilation acting to smooth the observed strong curvature in temperature around the tropopause. This is confirmed in the reanalysis where the stratification around the tropopause exhibits a strong discontinuity at the start of the satellite era.

Global Radiative Forcing of Coupled Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols in a Unified General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.; Adams, Peter J.; Mickley, Loretta J.

2008-01-01

Global simulations of sea salt and mineral dust aerosols are integrated into a previously developed unified general circulation model (GCM), the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM II', that simulates coupled tropospheric ozone-NOx-hydrocarbon chemistry and sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon, primary organic carbon, and secondary organic carbon aerosols. The fully coupled gas-aerosol unified GCM allows one to evaluate the extent to which global burdens, radiative forcing, and eventually climate feedbacks of ozone and aerosols are influenced by gas-aerosol chemical interactions. Estimated present-day global burdens of sea salt and mineral dust are 6.93 and 18.1 Tg with lifetimes of 0.4 and 3.9 days, respectively. The GCM is applied to estimate current top of atmosphere (TOA) and surface radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone and all natural and anthropogenic aerosol components. The global annual mean value of the radiative forcing by tropospheric ozone is estimated to be +0.53 W m(sup -2) at TOA and +0.07 W m(sup -2) at the Earth's surface. Global, annual average TOA and surface radiative forcing by all aerosols are estimated as -0.72 and -4.04 W m(sup -2), respectively. While the predicted highest aerosol cooling and heating at TOA are -10 and +12 W m(sup -2) respectively, surface forcing can reach values as high as -30 W m(sup -2), mainly caused by the absorption by black carbon, mineral dust, and OC. We also estimate the effects of chemistry-aerosol coupling on forcing estimates based on currently available understanding of heterogeneous reactions on aerosols. Through altering the burdens of sulfate, nitrate, and ozone, heterogeneous reactions are predicted to change the global mean TOA forcing of aerosols by 17% and influence global mean TOA forcing of tropospheric ozone by 15%.

Spectral Generation from the Ames Mars GCM for the Study of Martian Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klassen, David R.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Wolff, Michael J.; Haberle, Robert; Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.

2017-10-01

Studies of martian clouds come from two distinct groups of researchers: those modeling the martian system from first principles and those observing Mars from ground-based and orbital platforms. The model-view begins with global circulation models (GCMs) or mesoscale models to track a multitude of state variables over a prescribed set of spatial and temporal resolutions. The state variables can then be processed into distinct maps of derived product variables, such as integrated optical depth of aerosol (e.g., water ice cloud, dust) or column integrated water vapor for comparison to observational results. The observer view begins, typically, with spectral images or imaging spectra, calibrated to some form of absolute units then run through some form of radiative transfer model to also produce distinct maps of derived product variables. Both groups of researchers work to adjust model parameters and assumptions until some level of agreement in derived product variables is achieved. While this system appears to work well, it is in some sense only an implicit confirmation of the model assumptions that attribute to the work from both sides. We have begun a project of testing the NASA Ames Mars GCM and key aerosol model assumptions more directly by taking the model output and creating synthetic TES-spectra from them for comparison to actual raw-reduced TES spectra. We will present some preliminary generated GCM spectra and TES comparisons.

Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in the Global Modeling Initiative 3D Model Simulations of Ozone Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

2003-01-01

The Global Modeling Initiative has integrated two 35-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and transport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically based diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are described and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barrier formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical wave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to simulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of meteorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a general circulation model (GMI(sub GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and northern hemisphere. The simulation with input from a data assimilation system (GMI(sub DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GMI(sub GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere than the GMI(sub DAS).

Impacts of the cloud structure's latitudinal variation on the general circulation of the Venus atmosphere as modeled by the LMD-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garate-Lopez, Itziar; Lebonnois, Sébastien

2017-04-01

A new simulation of Venus atmospheric circulation obtained with the LMD Venus GCM is described and the impact of cloud's latitudinal structure on the general circulation is analyzed. The model used here is based on that presented in Lebonnois et al. (2016). However, in the present simulation we consider the latitudinal variation of the cloud structure (Haus et al., 2014) both for the solar heating and to compute the infrared net-exchange rate matrix used in the radiative transfer module. The new cloud treatment affects mainly the balance in the angular momentum and the zonal wind distribution. Consequently, the agreement between the vertical profile of the modeled mean zonal wind and the profiles measured by different probes, is clearly improved from previous simulations in which zonal winds below the clouds were weak (roughly half the observed values). Moreover, the equatorial jet obtained at the base of the cloud deck is now more consistent with the observations. In Lebonnois et al. (2016) it was too strong compared to mid-latitudes, but in the present simulation the equatorial jet is less intense than the mid-latitude jets, in concordance with cloud-tracking measurements (Hueso et al., 2015). Since the atmospheric waves play a crucial role in the angular momentum budget of the Venus's atmospheric circulation, we analyze the wave activity by means of the Fast Fourier Transform technique studying the frequency spectrum of temperature, zonal and meridional wind fields. Modifications in the activity of the different types of waves present in the Venusian atmosphere compared to Lebonnois et al. (2016) are discussed, in terms of horizontal and vertical transport of the angular momentum by diurnal and semi-diurnal tides, barotropic and baroclinic waves, and Rossby and Kelvin type waves. Haus R., Kappel D. and Arnold G., 2014. Atmospheric thermal structure and cloud features in the southern hemisphere of Venus as retrieved from VIRTIS/VEX radiation measurements. Icarus 232, 232-248. Hueso R., Peralta J., Garate-Lopez I., et al., 2015. Six years of Venus winds at the upper cloud level from UV, visible and near infrared observations from VIRTIS on Venus express. Planet. Space Sci. 113-114, 78-99. Lebonnois S., Sugimoto N., and Gilli G., 2016. Wave analysis in the atmosphere of Venus below 100km altitude, simulated by the LMD Venus GCM. Icarus 278, 38-51.

Middle atmosphere dynamical sources of the semiannual oscillation in the thermosphere and ionosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, M.; Emmert, J. T.; Drob, D. P.; Siskind, D. E.

2017-01-01

The strong global semiannual oscillation (SAO) in thermospheric density has been observed for five decades, but definitive knowledge of its source has been elusive. We use the National Center of Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) to study how middle atmospheric dynamics generate the SAO in the thermosphere-ionosphere (T-I). The "standard" TIME-GCM simulates, from first principles, SAOs in thermospheric mass density and ionospheric total electron content that agree well with observed climatological variations. Diagnosis of the globally averaged continuity equation for atomic oxygen ([O]) shows that the T-I SAO originates in the upper mesosphere, where an SAO in [O] is forced by nonlinear, resolved-scale variations in the advective, net tidal, and diffusive transport of O. Contrary to earlier hypotheses, TIME-GCM simulations demonstrate that intra-annually varying eddy diffusion by breaking gravity waves may not be the primary driver of the T-I SAO: A pronounced SAO is produced without parameterized gravity waves.

Impact of the dynamical core on the direct simulation of tropical cyclones in a high-resolution global model

DOE PAGES

Reed, K. A.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Rosenbloom, N. A.; ...

2015-05-13

Our paper examines the impact of the dynamical core on the simulation of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency, distribution, and intensity. The dynamical core, the central fluid flow component of any general circulation model (GCM), is often overlooked in the analysis of a model's ability to simulate TCs compared to the impact of more commonly documented components (e.g., physical parameterizations). The Community Atmosphere Model version 5 is configured with multiple dynamics packages. This analysis demonstrates that the dynamical core has a significant impact on storm intensity and frequency, even in the presence of similar large-scale environments. In particular, the spectral elementmore » core produces stronger TCs and more hurricanes than the finite-volume core using very similar parameterization packages despite the latter having a slightly more favorable TC environment. Furthermore, these results suggest that more detailed investigations into the impact of the GCM dynamical core on TC climatology are needed to fully understand these uncertainties. Key Points The impact of the GCM dynamical core is often overlooked in TC assessments The CAM5 dynamical core has a significant impact on TC frequency and intensity A larger effort is needed to better understand this uncertainty« less

Can We Use Single-Column Models for Understanding the Boundary Layer Cloud-Climate Feedback?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dal Gesso, S.; Neggers, R. A. J.

2018-02-01

This study explores how to drive Single-Column Models (SCMs) with existing data sets of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs, with the aim of studying the boundary layer cloud response to climate change in the marine subtropical trade wind regime. The EC-EARTH SCM is driven with the large-scale tendencies and boundary conditions as derived from two different data sets, consisting of high-frequency outputs of GCM simulations. SCM simulations are performed near Barbados Cloud Observatory in the dry season (January-April), when fair-weather cumulus is the dominant low-cloud regime. This climate regime is characterized by a near equilibrium in the free troposphere between the long-wave radiative cooling and the large-scale advection of warm air. In the SCM, this equilibrium is ensured by scaling the monthly mean dynamical tendency of temperature and humidity such that it balances that of the model physics in the free troposphere. In this setup, the high-frequency variability in the forcing is maintained, and the boundary layer physics acts freely. This technique yields representative cloud amount and structure in the SCM for the current climate. Furthermore, the cloud response to a sea surface warming of 4 K as produced by the SCM is consistent with that of the forcing GCM.

Sensitivity study of heavy precipitation in Limited Area Model climate simulations: influence of the size of the domain and the use of the spectral nudging technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colin, Jeanne; Déqué, Michel; Radu, Raluca; Somot, Samuel

2010-10-01

We assess the impact of two sources of uncertainties in a limited area model (LAM) on the representation of intense precipitation: the size of the domain of integration and the use of the spectral nudging technique (driving of the large-scale within the domain of integration). We work in a perfect-model approach where the LAM is driven by a general circulation model (GCM) run at the same resolution and sharing the same physics and dynamics as the LAM. A set of three 50 km resolution simulations run over Western Europe with the LAM ALADIN-Climate and the GCM ARPEGE-Climate are performed to address this issue. Results are consistent with previous studies regarding the seasonal-mean fields. Furthermore, they show that neither the use of the spectral nudging nor the choice of a small domain are detrimental to the modelling of heavy precipitation in the present experiment.

Climate simulation of the twenty-first century with interactive land-use changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voldoire, Aurore; Eickhout, Bas; Schaeffer, Michiel; Royer, Jean-François; Chauvin, Fabrice

2007-08-01

To include land-use dynamics in a general circulation model (GCM), the physical system has to be linked to a system that represents socio-economy. This issue is addressed by coupling an integrated assessment model, IMAGE2.2, to an ocean atmosphere GCM, CNRM-CM3. In the new system, IMAGE2.2 provides CNRM-CM3 with all the external forcings that are scenario dependent: greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentrations, sulfate aerosols charge and land cover. Conversely, the GCM gives IMAGE changes in mean temperature and precipitation. With this new system, we have run an adapted scenario of the IPCC SRES scenario family. We have chosen a single scenario with maximum land-use changes (SRES A2), to illustrate some important feedback issues. Even in this two-way coupled model set-up, land use in this scenario is mainly driven by demographic and agricultural practices, which overpowers a potential influence of climate feedbacks on land-use patterns. This suggests that for scenarios in which socio-economically driven land-use change is very large, land-use changes can be incorporated in GCM simulations as a one-way driving force, without taking into account climate feedbacks. The dynamics of natural vegetation is more closely linked to climate but the time-scale of changes is of the order of a century. Thus, the coupling between natural vegetation and climate could generate important feedbacks but these effects are relevant mainly for multi-centennial simulations.

Solar Cycle Variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas, C. C. J.; Chang, L. C.; Liang, M. C.; Qian, L.; Yue, J.; Russell, J. M., III; Mlynczak, M. G.

2017-12-01

This work aims to present the solar cycle variations of SABER CO2 and MLS H2O in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere region. These observations are then compared to SD-WACCM outputs of CO2 and H2O in order to understand their physical mechanisms. After which, we attempt to model their solar cycle variations using the default TIME-GCM and the TIME-GCM with MERRA reanalysis as lower-boundary conditions. Comparing the outputs of the default TIME-GCM and TIME-GCM with MERRA will give us insight into the importance of solar forcing and lower atmospheric forcing on the solar cycle variations of CO2 and H2O. The solar cycle influence in the parameters are calculated by doing a multiple linear regression with the F10.7 index. The solar cycle of SABER CO2 is reliable above 1e-2 mb and below 1e-3 mb. Preliminary results from the observations show that SABER CO2 has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. MLS H2O is reliable until 1e-2. Preliminary results from the observations show that MLS H2O also has a stronger negative anomaly due to the solar cycle over the winter hemisphere. Both SD-WACCM and the default TIME-GCM reproduce these stronger anomalies over the winter hemisphere. An analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM and default TIME-GCM then reveal that for CO2, the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to stronger downward transport over the winter hemisphere. For H2O, an analysis of the tendency equations in SD-WACCM reveal that the stronger winter anomaly may be attributed to both stronger downward transport and stronger photochemical loss. On the other hand, in the default TIME-GCM, the stronger winter anomaly in H2O may only be attributed to stronger downward transport. For both models, the stronger downward transport is attributed to enhanced stratospheric polar winter jet during solar maximum. Future work will determine whether setting the lower boundary conditions of TIME-GCM with MERRA will improve the match between TIME-GCM and SD-WACCM. Also, with the TIME-GCM outputs, the influence of these MLT circulation changes on the ionospheric winter anomaly will be determined.

Measuring the potential utility of seasonal climate predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Kleeman, Richard; Tang, Youmin

2004-11-01

Variation of sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal-to-interannual time-scales leads to changes in seasonal weather statistics and seasonal climate anomalies. Relative entropy, an information theory measure of utility, is used to quantify the impact of SST variations on seasonal precipitation compared to natural variability. An ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations is used to estimate this quantity in three regions where tropical SST has a large impact on precipitation: South Florida, the Nordeste of Brazil and Kenya. We find the yearly variation of relative entropy is strongly correlated with shifts in ensemble mean precipitation and weakly correlated with ensemble variance. Relative entropy is also found to be related to measures of the ability of the GCM to reproduce observations.

Linear simulation of the stationary eddies in a GCM. II - The 'Mountain' model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nigam, Sumant; Held, Isaac M.; Lyons, Steven W.

1988-01-01

Linear stationary wave theory is used to account for zonal asymmetries of the winter-averaged tropospheric circulation obtained in a GCM. The eddy zonal velocity field in the upper troposphere indicates that the orographic and thermal plus transient contributions are nearly equal in amplitude, while the eddy meridional velocity field (which is dominated by shorter zonal scales) shows the orographic contribution to be dominant. The two contributions are found to be roughly in phase over the east Asian coast, and they contribute roughly equal amounts to the low level Siberian high. Results indicate that the 300 mb extratropical response to tropical forcing reaches 50 gpm over Alaska, and that the responses to sensible heating and lower tropospheric transients are strongly anticorrelated.

On the limitations of General Circulation Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stone, Peter H.; Risbey, James S.

1990-01-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) by definition calculate large-scale dynamical and thermodynamical processes and their associated feedbacks from first principles. This aspect of GCMs is widely believed to give them an advantage in simulating global scale climate changes as compared to simpler models which do not calculate the large-scale processes from first principles. However, it is pointed out that the meridional transports of heat simulated GCMs used in climate change experiments differ from observational analyses and from other GCMs by as much as a factor of two. It is also demonstrated that GCM simulations of the large scale transports of heat are sensitive to the (uncertain) subgrid scale parameterizations. This leads to the question whether current GCMs are in fact superior to simpler models for simulating temperature changes associated with global scale climate change.

Three-Dimensional Structures of Thermal Tides Simulated by a Venus GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, Masahiro; Sugimoto, Norihiko; Ando, Hiroki; Matsuda, Yoshihisa

2018-02-01

Thermal tides in the Venus atmosphere are investigated by using a GCM named as AFES-Venus. The three-dimensional structures of wind and temperature associated with the thermal tides obtained in our model are fully examined and compared with observations. The result shows that the wind and temperature distributions of the thermal tides depend complexly on latitude and altitude in the cloud layer, mainly because they consist of vertically propagating and trapped modes with zonal wave numbers of 1-4, each of which predominates in different latitudes and altitudes under the influence of mid- and high-latitude jets. A strong circulation between the subsolar and antisolar (SS-AS) points, which is equivalent to a diurnal component of the thermal tides, is superposed on the superrotation. The vertical velocity of SS-AS circulation is about 10 times larger than that of the zonal-mean meridional circulation (ZMMC) in 60-70 km altitudes. It is suggested that the SS-AS circulation could contribute to the material transport, and its upward motion might be related to the UV dark region observed in the subsolar and early afternoon regions in low latitudes. The terdiurnal and quaterdiurnal tides, which may be excited by the nonlinear interactions among the diurnal and semidiurnal tides in middle and high latitudes, are detected in the solar-fixed Y-shape structure formed in the vertical wind field in the upper cloud layer. The ZMMC is weak and has a complex structure in the cloud layer; the Hadley circulation is confined to latitudes equatorward of 30°, and the Ferrel-like one appears in middle and high latitudes.

Jets, eddies & waves in Saturn's troposphere and stratosphere from multi-annual high-resolution Global Climate Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spiga, Aymeric; Guerlet, Sandrine; Meurdesoif, Yann; Indurain, Mikel; Millour, Ehouarn; Sylvestre, Melody; Dubos, Thomas; Fouchet, Thierry

2016-10-01

A mission as richly instrumented as Cassini has brought a new impulse to the studies of Saturn's atmospheric fluid dynamics, to be further extended to Jupiter by the Juno mission.We recently built an innovative Global Climate Model (GCM) for giant planets by coupling our complete seasonal radiative model [Guerlet Icarus 2014] with a new hydrodynamical solver using an original icosahedral mapping of the planetary sphere to ensure excellent conservation and scalability properties in massively parallel computing resources [Dubos GMD 2015].Here we describe the insights gained from GCM simulations for Saturn with both unprecedented horizontal resolutions (reference at 1/2° latitude/longitude, and tests at 1/4° and 1/8°), integrated time (up to ten simulated Saturn years), and large vertical extent (from the troposphere to the stratosphere).Starting from a windless initial state, our 10-year-long GCM simulation for Saturn reproduce alterned tropospheric mid-latitude jets bearing similarities with the observed jet system (numbering, intensity, width). We demonstrate that those jets are eddy-driven with a conversion rate from eddies to mean flow in agreement with Cassini estimates. Before reaching equilibrium, mid-latitude jets experience poleward migration, which can be ascribed to a self-destabilization of the jets by barotropic and baroclinic instabilities.Our Saturn GCM also predicts in the equator the presence of eastward-propagating Rossby-gravity (Yanai) and westward-propagating Rossby waves, reminiscent of similar waves in the terrestrial tropics. Furthermore, our GCM simulations exhibit a stratospheric meridional circulation from one tropic to the other, with a seasonal reversal, which allows us to investigate the possible dynamical control on the observed variations of hydrocarbon species.In contrast to observations, in our GCM simulations the equatorial jet is only weakly super-rotating and the polar jet is strongly destabilized by meandering. Moreover, in spite of predicting stacked stratospheric eastward and westward jets, our GCM does not reproduce the observed propagation of the equatorial oscillation by Cassini. We will discuss how to address those remaining challenges in future simulations.

Correction of Excessive Precipitation over Steep Mountains in a General Circulation Model (GCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.

2012-01-01

Excessive precipitation over steep and high mountains (EPSM) is a well-known problem in GCMs and regional climate models even at a resolution as high as 19km. The affected regions include the Andes, the Himalayas, Sierra Madre, New Guinea and others. This problem also shows up in some data assimilation products. Among the possible causes investigated in this study, we found that the most important one, by far, is a missing upward transport of heat out of the boundary layer due to the vertical circulations forced by the daytime subgrid-scale upslope winds, which in turn is forced by heated boundary layer on the slopes. These upslope winds are associated with large subgrid-scale topographic variance, which is found over steep mountains. Without such subgrid-scale heat ventilation, the resolvable-scale upslope flow in the boundary layer generated by surface sensible heat flux along the mountain slopes is excessive. Such an excessive resolvable-scale upslope flow in the boundary layer combined with the high moisture content in the boundary layer results in excessive moisture transport toward mountaintops, which in turn gives rise to excessive precipitation over the affected regions. We have parameterized the effects of subgrid-scale heated-slope-induced vertical circulation (SHVC) by removing heat from the boundary layer and depositing it in the layers higher up when topographic variance exceeds a critical value. Test results using NASA/Goddard's GEOS-5 GCM have shown that the EPSM problem is largely solved.

Evaluating historical climate and hydrologic trends in the Central Appalachian region of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaertner, B. A.; Zegre, N.

2015-12-01

Climate change is surfacing as one of the most important environmental and social issues of the 21st century. Over the last 100 years, observations show increasing trends in global temperatures and intensity and frequency of precipitation events such as flooding, drought, and extreme storms. Global circulation models (GCM) show similar trends for historic and future climate indicators, albeit with geographic and topographic variability at regional and local scale. In order to assess the utility of GCM projections for hydrologic modeling, it is important to quantify how robust GCM outputs are compared to robust historical observations at finer spatial scales. Previous research in the United States has primarily focused on the Western and Northeastern regions due to dominance of snow melt for runoff and aquifer recharge but the impact of climate warming in the mountainous central Appalachian Region is poorly understood. In this research, we assess the performance of GCM-generated historical climate compared to historical observations primarily in the context of forcing data for macro-scale hydrologic modeling. Our results show significant spatial heterogeneity of modeled climate indices when compared to observational trends at the watershed scale. Observational data is showing considerable variability within maximum temperature and precipitation trends, with consistent increases in minimum temperature. The geographic, temperature, and complex topographic gradient throughout the central Appalachian region is likely the contributing factor in temperature and precipitation variability. Variable climate changes are leading to more severe and frequent climate events such as temperature extremes and storm events, which can have significant impacts on our drinking water supply, infrastructure, and health of all downstream communities.

A coupled synoptic-hydrological model for climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert; Greenfield, Brian; Glenny, Cathy

1994-01-01

A coupled atmospheric-hydrological model is presented. Sequences of daily rainfall occurrence for the 20 year period 1971-1990 at sites in the British Isles are related to the Lamb's Weather Types (LWT) by using conditional probabilities. Time series of circulation patterns and hence rainfall were then generated using a Markov representation of matrices of transition probabilities between weather types. The resultant precipitation data were used as input to a semidistributed catchment model to simulate daily flows. The combined model successfully reproduced aspects of the daily weather, precipitation and flow regimes. A range of synoptic scenarios were further investigated with particular reference to low flows in the River Coln, UK. The modelling approach represents a means of translating general circulation model (GCM) climate change predictions at the macro-scale into hydrological concerns at the catchment scale.

A Ground-Based Doppler Radar and Micropulse Lidar Forward Simulator for GCM Evaluation of Arctic Mixed-Phase Clouds: Moving Forward Towards an Apples-to-apples Comparison of Hydrometeor Phase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamer, K.; Fridlind, A. M.; Ackerman, A. S.; Kollias, P.; Clothiaux, E. E.

2017-12-01

An important aspect of evaluating Artic cloud representation in a general circulation model (GCM) consists of using observational benchmarks which are as equivalent as possible to model output in order to avoid methodological bias and focus on correctly diagnosing model dynamical and microphysical misrepresentations. However, current cloud observing systems are known to suffer from biases such as limited sensitivity, and stronger response to large or small hydrometeors. Fortunately, while these observational biases cannot be corrected, they are often well understood and can be reproduced in forward simulations. Here a ground-based millimeter wavelength Doppler radar and micropulse lidar forward simulator able to interface with output from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE GCM is presented. ModelE stratiform hydrometeor fraction, mixing ratio, mass-weighted fall speed and effective radius are forward simulated to vertically-resolved profiles of radar reflectivity, Doppler velocity and spectrum width as well as lidar backscatter and depolarization ratio. These forward simulated fields are then compared to Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) ground-based observations to assess cloud vertical structure (CVS). Model evalution of Arctic mixed-phase cloud would also benefit from hydrometeor phase evaluation. While phase retrieval from synergetic observations often generates large uncertainties, the same retrieval algorithm can be applied to observed and forward-simulated radar-lidar fields, thereby producing retrieved hydrometeor properties with potentially the same uncertainties. Comparing hydrometeor properties retrieved in exactly the same way aims to produce the best apples-to-apples comparisons between GCM ouputs and observations. The use of a comprenhensive ground-based forward simulator coupled with a hydrometeor classification retrieval algorithm provides a new perspective for GCM evaluation of Arctic mixed-phase clouds from the ground where low-level supercooled liquid layer are more easily observed and where additional environmental properties such as cloud condensation nuclei are quantified. This should help assist in choosing between several possible diagnostic ice nucleation schemes for ModelE stratiform cloud.

The Sensitivity of Arctic Ozone Loss to Polar Stratospheric Cloud Volume and Chlorine and Bromine Loading in a Chemistry and Transport Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglass, A. R.; Stolarski, R. S.; Strahan, S. E.; Polansky, B. C.

2006-01-01

The sensitivity of Arctic ozone loss to polar stratospheric cloud volume (V(sub PSC)) and chlorine and bromine loading is explored using chemistry and transport models (CTMs). A simulation using multi-decadal output from a general circulation model (GCM) in the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) CTM complements one recycling a single year s GCM output in the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM. Winter polar ozone loss in the GSFC CTM depends on equivalent effective stratospheric chlorine (EESC) and polar vortex characteristics (temperatures, descent, isolation, polar stratospheric cloud amount). Polar ozone loss in the GMI CTM depends only on changes in EESC as the dynamics repeat annually. The GSFC CTM simulation reproduces a linear relationship between ozone loss and Vpsc derived from observations for 1992 - 2003 which holds for EESC within approx.85% of its maximum (approx.1990 - 2020). The GMI simulation shows that ozone loss varies linearly with EESC for constant, high V(sub PSC).

Regional Climate Simulation and Data Assimilation with Variable-Resolution GCMs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.

2002-01-01

Variable resolution GCMs using a global stretched grid (SG) with enhanced regional resolution over one or multiple areas of interest represents a viable new approach to regional climateklimate change and data assimilation studies and applications. The multiple areas of interest, at least one within each global quadrant, include the major global mountains and major global monsoonal circulations over North America, South America, India-China, and Australia. They also can include the polar domains, and the European and African regions. The SG-approach provides an efficient regional downscaling to mesoscales, and it is an ideal tool for representing consistent interactions of globaYlarge- and regionallmeso- scales while preserving the high quality of global circulation. Basically, the SG-GCM simulations are no different from those of the traditional uniform-grid GCM simulations besides using a variable-resolution grid. Several existing SG-GCMs developed by major centers and groups are briefly described. The major discussion is based on the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) SG-GCM regional climate simulations.

The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

HARSHVARDHAN

1991-01-01

Reliable estimates of the components of the surface radiation budget are important in studies of ocean-atmosphere interaction, land-atmosphere interaction, ocean circulation and in the validation of radiation schemes used in climate models. The methods currently under consideration must necessarily make certain assumptions regarding both the presence of clouds and their vertical extent. Because of the uncertainties in assumed cloudiness, all these methods involve perhaps unacceptable uncertainties. Here, a theoretical framework that avoids the explicit computation of cloud fraction and the location of cloud base in estimating the surface longwave radiation is presented. Estimates of the global surface downward fluxes and the oceanic surface net upward fluxes were made for four months (April, July, October and January) in 1985 to 1986. These estimates are based on a relationship between cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere and the surface obtained from a general circulation model. The radiation code is the version used in the UCLA/GLA general circulation model (GCM). The longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere as obtained from Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) measurements is used to compute the forcing at the surface by means of the GCM-derived relationship. This, along with clear-sky fluxes from the computations, yield maps of the downward longwave fluxes and net upward longwave fluxes at the surface. The calculated results are discussed and analyzed. The results are consistent with current meteorological knowledge and explainable on the basis of previous theoretical and observational works; therefore, it can be concluded that this method is applicable as one of the ways to obtain the surface longwave radiation fields from currently available satellite data.

Modelling middle pliocene warm climates of the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, A.M.; Valdes, P.J.; Sellwood, B.W.; Kaplan, J.O.; Dowsett, H.J.

2001-01-01

The middle Pliocene warm period represents a unique time slice in which to model and understand climatic processes operating under a warm climatic regime. Palaeoclimatic model simulations, focussed on the United States of America (USA), for the middle Pliocene (ca 3 Ma) were generated using the USGS PRISM2 2?? ?? 2?? data set of boundary conditions and the UK Meteorological Office's HadAMS General Circulation Model (GCM). Model results suggest that conditions in the USA during the middle Pliocene can be characterised as annually warmer (by 2?? to 4??C), less seasonal, wetter (by a maximum of 4 to 8 mm/day) and with an absence of freezing winters over the central and southern Great Plains. A sensitivity experiment suggests that the main forcing mechanisms for surface temperature changes in near coastal areas are the imposed Pliocene sea surface temperatures (SST's). In interior regions, reduced Northern Hemisphere terrestrial ice, combined with less snow cover and a reduction in the elevation of the western cordillera of North America, generate atmospheric circulation changes and positive albedo feedbacks that raise surface temperatures. A complex set of climatic feedback mechanisms cause an enhancement of the hydrological cycle magnifying the moisture bearing westerly wind belt during the winter season (Dec., Jan., Feb.). Predictions produced by the model are in broad agreement with available geological evidence. However, the GCM appears to underestimate precipitation levels in the interior and central regions of the southern USA. Copyright: Palaeontological Association, 22 June 2001.

Application of SIR-C SAR to Hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engman, Edwin T.; ONeill, Peggy; Wood, Eric; Pauwels, Valentine; Hsu, Ann; Jackson, Tom; Shi, J. C.; Prietzsch, Corinna

1996-01-01

The progress, results and future plans regarding the following objectives are presented: (1) Determine and compare soil moisture patterns within one or more humid watersheds using SAR data, ground-based measurements, and hydrologic modeling; (2) Use radar data to characterize the hydrologic regime within a catchment and to identify the runoff producing characteristics of humid zone watersheds; and (3) Use radar data as the basis for scaling up from small scale, near-point process models to larger scale water balance models necessary to define and quantify the land phase of GCM's (Global Circulation Models).

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 16; Filtering Techniques on a Stretched Grid General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takacs, Lawrence L.; Sawyer, William; Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Fox-Rabinowitz, Michael S.

1999-01-01

This report documents the techniques used to filter quantities on a stretched grid general circulation model. Standard high-latitude filtering techniques (e.g., using an FFT (Fast Fourier Transformations) to decompose and filter unstable harmonics at selected latitudes) applied on a stretched grid are shown to produce significant distortions of the prognostic state when used to control instabilities near the pole. A new filtering technique is developed which accurately accounts for the non-uniform grid by computing the eigenvectors and eigenfrequencies associated with the stretching. A filter function, constructed to selectively damp those modes whose associated eigenfrequencies exceed some critical value, is used to construct a set of grid-spaced weights which are shown to effectively filter without distortion. Both offline and GCM (General Circulation Model) experiments are shown using the new filtering technique. Finally, a brief examination is also made on the impact of applying the Shapiro filter on the stretched grid.

A three-dimensional model simulation of atmospheric nitrous oxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turner, R. E.; Blackshear, W. T.; Grose, W. L.; Eckman, R. S.; Pierce, R. B.; Fairlie, T. D. A.

1992-01-01

The NASA Langley 3D GCM chemical transport model is used to investigate the distribution of atmospheric N2O up to 60 km altitude. The transport characteristics of the model is evaluated without the complications of a detailed chemical formulation for all of the relevant stratospheric minor constituents. Interpretation of the yearly average zonal mean N2O distribution in terms of transport by the yearly averaged meridional circulation and stratospheric photochemical loss indicates large regions in the Northern Hemisphere stratosphere where dynamical mixing apparently plays a large role in maintaining the N2O distribution. In these regions, slopes of the N2O mixing ratio isopleths are maintained by competition between advection by the meridional circulation acting to steepen and dynamical mixing acting to flatten the slopes.

A Method of Relating General Circulation Model Simulated Climate to the Observed Local Climate. Part I: Seasonal Statistics.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karl, Thomas R.; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Schlesinger, Michael E.; Knight, Richard W.; Portman, David

1990-10-01

Important surface observations such as the daily maximum and minimum temperature, daily precipitation, and cloud ceilings often have localized characteristics that are difficult to reproduce with the current resolution and the physical parameterizations in state-of-the-art General Circulation climate Models (GCMs). Many of the difficulties can be partially attributed to mismatches in scale, local topography. regional geography and boundary conditions between models and surface-based observations. Here, we present a method, called climatological projection by model statistics (CPMS), to relate GCM grid-point flee-atmosphere statistics, the predictors, to these important local surface observations. The method can be viewed as a generalization of the model output statistics (MOS) and perfect prog (PP) procedures used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. It consists of the application of three statistical methods: 1) principle component analysis (FICA), 2) canonical correlation, and 3) inflated regression analysis. The PCA reduces the redundancy of the predictors The canonical correlation is used to develop simultaneous relationships between linear combinations of the predictors, the canonical variables, and the surface-based observations. Finally, inflated regression is used to relate the important canonical variables to each of the surface-based observed variables.We demonstrate that even an early version of the Oregon State University two-level atmospheric GCM (with prescribed sea surface temperature) produces free-atmosphere statistics than can, when standardized using the model's internal means and variances (the MOS-like version of CPMS), closely approximate the observed local climate. When the model data are standardized by the observed free-atmosphere means and variances (the PP version of CPMS), however, the model does not reproduce the observed surface climate as well. Our results indicate that in the MOS-like version of CPMS the differences between the output of a ten-year GCM control run and the surface-based observations are often smaller than the differences between the observations of two ten-year periods. Such positive results suggest that GCMs may already contain important climatological information that can be used to infer the local climate.

Equatorial waves in a stratospheric GCM: Effects of vertical resolution. [GCM (general circulation model)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boville, B.A.; Randel, W.J.

1992-05-01

Equatorially trapped wave modes, such as Kelvin and mixed Rossby-gravity waves, are believed to play a crucial role in forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the lower tropical stratosphere. This study examines the ability of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate these waves and investigates the changes in the wave properties as a function of the vertical resolution of the model. The simulations produce a stratopause-level semiannual oscillation but not a QBO. An unfortunate property of the equatorially trapped waves is that they tend to have small vertical wavelengths ([le] 15 km). Some of the waves, believed to bemore » important in forcing the QBO, have wavelengths as short as 4 km. The short vertical wavelengths pose a stringent computational requirement for numerical models whose vertical grid spacing is typically chosen based on the requirements for simulating extratropical Rossby waves (which have much longer vertical wavelengths). This study examines the dependence of the equatorial wave simulation of vertical resolution using three experiments with vertical grid spacings of approximately 2.8, 1.4, and 0.7 km. Several Kelvin, mixed Rossby-gravity, and 0.7 km. Several Kelvin, mixed Rossby-gravity, and inertio-gravity waves are identified in the simulations. At high vertical resolution, the simulated waves are shown to correspond fairly well to the available observations. The properties of the relatively slow (and vertically short) waves believed to play a role in the QBO vary significantly with vertical resolution. Vertical grid spacings of about 1 km or less appear to be required to represent these waves adequately. The simulated wave amplitudes are at least as large as observed, and the waves are absorbed in the lower stratosphere, as required in order to force the QBO. However, the EP flux divergence associated with the waves is not sufficient to explain the zonal flow accelerations found in the QBO. 39 refs., 17 figs., 1 tab.« less

The Mars Climate Database (MCD version 5.2)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millour, E.; Forget, F.; Spiga, A.; Navarro, T.; Madeleine, J.-B.; Montabone, L.; Pottier, A.; Lefevre, F.; Montmessin, F.; Chaufray, J.-Y.; Lopez-Valverde, M. A.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Lewis, S. R.; Read, P. L.; Huot, J.-P.; Desjean, M.-C.; MCD/GCM development Team

2015-10-01

The Mars Climate Database (MCD) is a database of meteorological fields derived from General Circulation Model (GCM) numerical simulations of the Martian atmosphere and validated using available observational data. The MCD includes complementary post-processing schemes such as high spatial resolution interpolation of environmental data and means of reconstructing the variability thereof. We have just completed (March 2015) the generation of a new version of the MCD, MCD version 5.2

Mars Pathfinder meteorological observations on the basis of results of an atmospheric global circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Forget, Francois; Hourdin, F.; Talagrand, O.

1994-01-01

The Mars Pathfinder Meteorological Package (ASI/MET) will measure the local pressure, temperature, and winds at its future landing site, somewhere between the latitudes 0 deg N and 30 deg N. Comparable measurements have already been obtained at the surface of Mars by the Viking Landers at 22 deg N (VL1) and 48 deg N (VL2), providing much useful information on the martian atmosphere. In particular the pressure measurements contain very instructive information on the global atmospheric circulation. At the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD), we have analyzed and simulated these measurements with a martian atmospheric global circulation model (GCM), which was the first to simulate the martian atmospheric circulation over more than 1 year. The model is able to reproduce rather accurately many observed features of the martian atmosphere, including the long- and short-period oscillations of the surface pressure observed by the Viking landers. From a meteorological point of view, we think that a landing site located near or at the equator would be an interesting choice.

Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in Simulations of Ozone Recovery using the Global Modeling Initiative Three-dimensional Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.

2004-01-01

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has integrated two 36-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and tra nsport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically ba sed diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are d escribed and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barri er formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical w ave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to sim ulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The global temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of me teorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a g eneral circulation model (GMI(GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere. The simulation with inp ut from a data assimilation system (GMI(DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than it did at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GML(GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere tha n it does in the GMI(DAS)

A class of the van Leer-type transport schemes and its application to the moisture transport in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shian-Jiann; Chao, Winston C.; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

1994-01-01

A generalized form of the second-order van Leer transport scheme is derived. Several constraints to the implied subgrid linear distribution are discussed. A very simple positive-definite scheme can be derived directly from the generalized form. A monotonic version of the scheme is applied to the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) for the moisture transport calculations, replacing the original fourth-order center-differencing scheme. Comparisons with the original scheme are made in idealized tests as well as in a summer climate simulation using the full GLA GCM. A distinct advantage of the monotonic transport scheme is its ability to transport sharp gradients without producing spurious oscillations and unphysical negative mixing ratio. Within the context of low-resolution climate simulations, the aforementioned characteristics are demonstrated to be very beneficial in regions where cumulus convection is active. The model-produced precipitation pattern using the new transport scheme is more coherently organized both in time and in space, and correlates better with observations. The side effect of the filling algorithm used in conjunction with the original scheme is also discussed, in the context of idealized tests. The major weakness of the proposed transport scheme with a local monotonic constraint is its substantial implicit diffusion at low resolution. Alternative constraints are discussed to counter this problem.

Future Climate Impacts of Direct Radiative Forcing Anthropogenic Aerosols, Tropospheric Ozone, and Long-lived Greenhouse Gases

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Wei-Ting; Liao, Hong; Seinfeld, John H.

2007-01-01

Long-lived greenhouse gases (GHGs) are the most important driver of climate change over the next century. Aerosols and tropospheric ozone (O3) are expected to induce significant perturbations to the GHG-forced climate. To distinguish the equilibrium climate responses to changes in direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG between present day and year 2100, four 80-year equilibrium climates are simulated using a unified tropospheric chemistry-aerosol model within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) 110. Concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, primary organic (POA) carbon, secondary organic (SOA) carbon, black carbon (BC) aerosols, and tropospheric ozone for present day and year 2100 are obtained a priori by coupled chemistry-aerosol GCM simulations, with emissions of aerosols, ozone, and precursors based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES) A2. Changing anthropogenic aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and GHG from present day to year 2100 is predicted to perturb the global annual mean radiative forcing by +0.18 (considering aerosol direct effects only), +0.65, and +6.54 W m(sup -2) at the tropopause, and to induce an equilibrium global annual mean surface temperature change of +0.14, +0.32, and +5.31 K, respectively, with the largest temperature response occurring at northern high latitudes. Anthropogenic aerosols, through their direct effect, are predicted to alter the Hadley circulation owing to an increasing interhemispheric temperature gradient, leading to changes in tropical precipitation. When changes in both aerosols and tropospheric ozone are considered, the predicted patterns of change in global circulation and the hydrological cycle are similar to those induced by aerosols alone. GHG-induced climate changes, such as amplified warming over high latitudes, weakened Hadley circulation, and increasing precipitation over the Tropics and high latitudes, are consistent with predictions of a number of previous GCM studies. Finally, direct radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols is predicted to induce strong regional cooling over East and South Asia. Wintertime rainfall over southeastern China and the Indian subcontinent is predicted to decrease because of the increased atmospheric stability and decreased surface evaporation, while the geographic distribution of precipitation is also predicted to be altered as a result of aerosol-induced changes in wind flow.

Theoretical and Empirical Descriptions of Thermospheric Density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solomon, S. C.; Qian, L.

2004-12-01

The longest-term and most accurate overall description the density of the upper thermosphere is provided by analysis of change in the ephemeris of Earth-orbiting satellites. Empirical models of the thermosphere developed in part from these measurements can do a reasonable job of describing thermospheric properties on a climatological basis, but the promise of first-principles global general circulation models of the coupled thermosphere/ionosphere system is that a true high-resolution, predictive capability may ultimately be developed for thermospheric density. However, several issues are encountered when attempting to tune such models so that they accurately represent absolute densities as a function of altitude, and their changes on solar-rotational and solar-cycle time scales. Among these are the crucial ones of getting the heating rates (from both solar and auroral sources) right, getting the cooling rates right, and establishing the appropriate boundary conditions. However, there are several ancillary issues as well, such as the problem of registering a pressure-coordinate model onto an altitude scale, and dealing with possible departures from hydrostatic equilibrium in empirical models. Thus, tuning a theoretical model to match empirical climatology may be difficult, even in the absence of high temporal or spatial variation of the energy sources. We will discuss some of the challenges involved, and show comparisons of simulations using the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) to empirical model estimates of neutral thermosphere density and temperature. We will also show some recent simulations using measured solar irradiance from the TIMED/SEE instrument as input to the TIE-GCM.

Regional and seasonal estimates of fractional storm coverage based on station precipitation observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gong, Gavin; Entekhabi, Dara; Salvucci, Guido D.

1994-01-01

Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.

Simulations of the north sea circulation, its variability, and its implementation as hydrodynamical forcing in ERSEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenhart, Hermann J.; Radach, Günther; Backhaus, Jan O.; Pohlmann, Thomas

The rationale is given of how the gross physical features of the circulation and the stratification of the North Sea have been aggregated for inclusion in the ecosystem box model ERSEM. As the ecosystem dynamics are to a large extent determined by small-scale physical events, the ecosystem model is forced with the circulation of a specific year rather than using the long-term mean circulation field. Especially the vertical exchange processes have been explicitly included, because the primary production strongly depends on them. Simulations with a general circulation model (GCM), forced by three-hourly meteorological fields, have been utilized to derive daily horizontal transport values driving ERSEM on boxes of sizes of a few 100 km. The daily vertical transports across a fixed 30-m interface provide the necessary short-term event character of the vertical exchange. For the years 1988 and 1989 the properties of the hydrodynamic flow fields are presented in terms of trajectories of the flow, thermocline depths, of water budgets, flushing times and diffusion rates. The results of the standard simulation with ERSEM show that the daily variability of the circulation, being smoothed by the box integration procedure, is transferred to the chemical and biological state variables to a very limited degree only.

Atmospheric Teleconnection over Eurasia Induced by Aerosol Radiative Forcing During Boreal Spring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Maeng-Ki; Lau, K. M.; Chin, Mian; Kim, Kyu-Myong; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, Greg K.

2005-01-01

The direct effects of aerosols on global and regional climate during boreal spring are investigated based on simulations using the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) finite-volume general circulation model (fvGCM) with Microphyics of clouds in Relaxed Arakawa Schubert Scheme (McRAS). The aerosol loading are prescribed from three-dimensional monthly distribution of tropospheric aerosols viz., sulfate, black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from output of the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport model (GOCART). The aerosol extinction coefficient, single scattering albedo, and asymmetric factor are computed as wavelength-dependent radiative forcing in the radiative transfer scheme of the fvGCM, and as a function of the aerosol loading and ambient relative humidity. We find that anomalous atmospheric heat sources induced by absorbing aerosols (dust and black carbon) excites a planetary scale teleconnection pattern in sea level pressure, temperature and geopotential height spanning North Africa through Eurasia to the North Pacific. Surface cooling due to direct effects of aerosols is found in the vicinity and downstream of the aerosol source regions, i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and northern and western Africa. Additionally, atmospheric heating is found in regions with large loading of dust (over Northern Africa, and Middle East), and black carbon (over South-East Asia). Paradoxically, the most pronounced feature in aerosol-induced surface temperature is an east-west dipole anomaly with strong cooling over the Caspian Sea, and warming over central and northeastern Asia, where aerosol concentration are low. Analyses of circulation anomalies show that the dipole anomaly is a part of an atmospheric teleconnection driven by atmospheric heating anomalies induced by absorbing aerosols in the source regions, but the influence was conveyed globally through barotropic energy dispersion and sustained by feedback processes associated with the regional circulations.

I/O Parallelization for the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lucchesi, Rob; Sawyer, W.; Takacs, L. L.; Lyster, P.; Zero, J.

1998-01-01

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) has developed the GEOS DAS, a data assimilation system that provides production support for NASA missions and will support NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) in the coming years. The GEOS DAS will be used to provide background fields of meteorological quantities to EOS satellite instrument teams for use in their data algorithms as well as providing assimilated data sets for climate studies on decadal time scales. The DAO has been involved in prototyping parallel implementations of the GEOS DAS for a number of years and is now embarking on an effort to convert the production version from shared-memory parallelism to distributed-memory parallelism using the portable Message-Passing Interface (MPI). The GEOS DAS consists of two main components, an atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) and a Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The GCM operates on data that are stored on a regular grid while PSAS works with observational data that are scattered irregularly throughout the atmosphere. As a result, the two components have different data decompositions. The GCM is decomposed horizontally as a checkerboard with all vertical levels of each box existing on the same processing element(PE). The dynamical core of the GCM can also operate on a rotated grid, which requires communication-intensive grid transformations during GCM integration. PSAS groups observations on PEs in a more irregular and dynamic fashion.

Improved Upper Ocean/Sea Ice Modeling in the GISS GCM for Investigating Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

This project built on our previous results in which we highlighted the importance of sea ice in overall climate sensitivity by determining that for both warming and cooling climates, when sea ice was not allowed to change, climate sensitivity was reduced by 35-40%. We also modified the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) 8 deg x lO deg atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) to include an upper-ocean/sea-ice model involving the Semtner three-layer ice/snow thermodynamic model, the Price et al. (1986) ocean mixed layer model and a general upper ocean vertical advection/diffusion scheme for maintaining and fluxing properties across the pycnocline. This effort, in addition to improving the sea ice representation in the AGCM, revealed a number of sensitive components of the sea ice/ocean system. For example, the ability to flux heat through the ice/snow properly is critical in order to resolve the surface temperature properly, since small errors in this lead to unrestrained climate drift. The present project, summarized in this report, had as its objectives: (1) introducing a series of sea ice and ocean improvements aimed at overcoming remaining weaknesses in the GCM sea ice/ocean representation, and (2) performing a series of sensitivity experiments designed to evaluate the climate sensitivity of the revised model to both Antarctic and Arctic sea ice, determine the sensitivity of the climate response to initial ice distribution, and investigate the transient response to doubling CO2.

A stochastic model for tropical cyclone tracks based on Reanalysis data and GCM output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ito, K.; Nakano, S.; Ueno, G.

2014-12-01

In the present study, we try to express probability distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) trajectories estimated on the basis of GCM output. The TC tracks are mainly controlled by the atmospheric circulation such as the trade winds and the Westerlies as well as are influenced to move northward by the Beta effect. The TC tracks, which calculated with trajectory analysis, would thus correspond to the movement of TCs due to the atmospheric circulation. Comparing the result of the trajectory analysis from reanalysis data with the Best Track (BT) of TC in the present climate, the structure of the trajectory seems to be similar to the BT. However, here is a significant problem for the calculation of a trajectory in the reanalysis wind field because there are many rotation elements including TCs in the reanalysis data. We assume that a TC would move along the steering current and the rotations would not have a great influence on the direction of moving. We are designing a state-space model based on the trajectory analysis and put an adjustment parameter for the moving vector. Here, a simple track generation model is developed. This model has a possibility to gain the probability distributions of calculated TC tracks by fitting to the BT using data assimilation. This work was conducted under the framework of the "Development of Basic Technology for Risk Information on Climate Change" supported by the SOUSEI Program of the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology.

Dynamically downscaling predictions for deciduous tree leaf emergence in California under current and future climate.

PubMed

Medvigy, David; Kim, Seung Hee; Kim, Jinwon; Kafatos, Menas C

2016-07-01

Models that predict the timing of deciduous tree leaf emergence are typically very sensitive to temperature. However, many temperature data products, including those from climate models, have been developed at a very coarse spatial resolution. Such coarse-resolution temperature products can lead to highly biased predictions of leaf emergence. This study investigates how dynamical downscaling of climate models impacts simulations of deciduous tree leaf emergence in California. Models for leaf emergence are forced with temperatures simulated by a general circulation model (GCM) at ~200-km resolution for 1981-2000 and 2031-2050 conditions. GCM simulations are then dynamically downscaled to 32- and 8-km resolution, and leaf emergence is again simulated. For 1981-2000, the regional average leaf emergence date is 30.8 days earlier in 32-km simulations than in ~200-km simulations. Differences between the 32 and 8 km simulations are small and mostly local. The impact of downscaling from 200 to 8 km is ~15 % smaller in 2031-2050 than in 1981-2000, indicating that the impacts of downscaling are unlikely to be stationary.

Future projections of extreme precipitation using Advanced Weather Generator (AWE-GEN) over Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Syafrina, A. H.; Zalina, M. D.; Juneng, L.

2014-09-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology known as the Advanced Weather Generator, AWE-GEN, has been tested at four stations in Peninsular Malaysia using observations available from 1975 to 2005. The methodology involves a stochastic downscaling procedure based on a Bayesian approach. Climate statistics from a multi-model ensemble of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs were calculated and factors of change were derived to produce the probability distribution functions (PDF). New parameters were obtained to project future climate time series. A multi-model ensemble was used in this study. The projections of extreme precipitation were based on the RCP 6.0 scenario (2081-2100). The model was able to simulate both hourly and 24-h extreme precipitation, as well as wet spell durations quite well for almost all regions. However, the performance of GCM models varies significantly in all regions showing high variability of monthly precipitation for both observed and future periods. The extreme precipitation for both hourly and 24-h seems to increase in future, while extreme of wet spells remain unchanged, up to the return periods of 10-40 years.

Stationary Waves of the Ice Age Climate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cook, Kerry H.; Held, Isaac M.

1988-08-01

A linearized, steady state, primitive equation model is used to simulate the climatological zonal asymmetries (stationary eddies) in the wind and temperature fields of the 18 000 YBP climate during winter. We compare these results with the eddies simulated in the ice age experiments of Broccoli and Manabe, who used CLIMAP boundary conditions and reduced atmospheric CO2 in an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) coupled with a static mixed layer ocean model. The agreement between the models is good, indicating that the linear model can be used to evaluate the relative influences of orography, diabatic heating, and transient eddy heat and momentum transports in generating stationary waves. We find that orographic forcing dominates in the ice age climate. The mechanical influence of the continental ice sheets on the atmosphere is responsible for most of the changes between the present day and ice age stationary eddies. This concept of the ice age climate is complicated by the sensitivity of the stationary eddies to the large increase in the magnitude of the zonal mean meridional temperature gradient simulated in the ice age GCM.

Developing a global mixed-canopy, height-variable vegetation structure dataset for estimating global vegetation albedo and biomass in the NASA Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model and GISS GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montes, C.; Kiang, N. Y.; Yang, W.; Ni-Meister, W.; Schaaf, C.; Aleinov, I. D.; Jonas, J.; Zhao, F. A.; Yao, T.; Wang, Z.; Sun, Q.

2015-12-01

Processes determining biosphere-atmosphere coupling are strongly influenced by vegetation structure. Thus, ecosystem carbon sequestration and evapotranspiration affecting global carbon and water balances will depend upon the spatial extent of vegetation, its vertical structure, and its physiological variability. To represent this globally, Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) coupled to General Circulation Models (GCMs) make use of satellite and/or model-based vegetation classifications often composed by homogeneous communities. This work aims at developing a new Global Vegetation Structure Dataset (GVSD) by incorporating varying vegetation heights for mixed plant communities to be used as input to the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (TBM), the DGVM coupled to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. Information sources include the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover and plant functional types (PFTs) (Friedl et al., 2010), vegetation height from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on board ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) (Simard et al., 2011; Tang et al., 2014) along with the Global Data Sets of Vegetation Leaf Area Index (LAI)3g (Zhu et al. 2013). Further PFT partitioning is performed according to a climate classification utilizing the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and the NOAA Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) data. Final products are a GVSD consisting of mixed plant communities (e.g. mixed forests, savannas, mixed PFTs) following the Ecosystem Demography model (Moorcroft et al., 2001) approach represented by multi-cohort community patches at the sub-grid level of the GCM, which are ensembles of identical individuals whose differences are represented by PFTs, canopy height, density and vegetation structure sensitivity to allometric parameters. To assess the sensitivity of the GISS GCM to vegetation structure, we produce a range of estimates of Ent TBM biomass and plant densities by varying allometric specifications. Ultimately, this GVSD will serve as a template for community data sets, and be used as boundary conditions to the Ent TBM for prediction of canopy albedo in the Analytical Clumped Two-Stream canopy radiative transfer scheme, biomass, primary productivity, respiration, and GISS GCM climate.

A post-new horizons global climate model of Pluto including the N2, CH4 and CO cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forget, F.; Bertrand, T.; Vangvichith, M.; Leconte, J.; Millour, E.; Lellouch, E.

2017-05-01

We have built a new 3D Global Climate Model (GCM) to simulate Pluto as observed by New Horizons in 2015. All key processes are parametrized on the basis of theoretical equations, including atmospheric dynamics and transport, turbulence, radiative transfer, molecular conduction, as well as phases changes for N2, CH2 and CO. Pluto's climate and ice cycles are found to be very sensitive to model parameters and initial states. Nevertheless, a reference simulation is designed by running a fast, reduced version of the GCM with simplified atmospheric transport for 40,000 Earth years to initialize the surface ice distribution and sub-surface temperatures, from which a 28-Earth-year full GCM simulation is performed. Assuming a topographic depression in a Sputnik-planum (SP)-like crater on the anti-Charon hemisphere, a realistic Pluto is obtained, with most N2 and CO ices accumulated in the crater, methane frost covering both hemispheres except for the equatorial regions, and a surface pressure near 1.1 Pa in 2015 with an increase between 1988 and 2015, as reported from stellar occultations. Temperature profiles are in qualitative agreement with the observations. In particular, a cold atmospheric layer is obtained in the lowest kilometers above Sputnik Planum, as observed by New Horizons's REX experiment. It is shown to result from the combined effect of the topographic depression and N2 daytime sublimation. In the reference simulation with surface N2 ice exclusively present in Sputnik Planum, the global circulation is only forced by radiative heating gradients and remains relatively weak. Surface winds are locally induced by topography slopes and by N2 condensation and sublimation around Sputnik Planum. However, the circulation can be more intense depending on the exact distribution of surface N2 frost. This is illustrated in an alternative simulation with N2 condensing in the South Polar regions and N2 frost covering latitudes between 35°N and 48°N. A global condensation flow is then created, inducing strong surface winds everywhere, a prograde jet in the southern high latitudes, and an equatorial superrotation likely forced by barotropic instabilities in the southern jet. Using realistic parameters, the GCM predict atmospheric concentrations of CO and CH4 in good agreement with the observations. N2 and CO do not condense in the atmosphere, but CH4 ice clouds can form during daytime at low altitude near the regions covered by N2 ice (assuming that nucleation is efficient enough). This global climate model can be used to study many aspects of the Pluto environment. For instance, organic hazes are included in the GCM and analysed in a companion paper (Bertrand and Forget, Icarus, this issue).

Role of a cumulus parameterization scheme in simulating atmospheric circulation and rainfall in the nine-layer Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sud, Y. C.; Chao, Winston C.; Walker, G. K.

1992-01-01

The influence of a cumulus convection scheme on the simulated atmospheric circulation and hydrologic cycle is investigated by means of a coarse version of the GCM. Two sets of integrations, each containing an ensemble of three summer simulations, were produced. The ensemble sets of control and experiment simulations are compared and differentially analyzed to determine the influence of a cumulus convection scheme on the simulated circulation and hydrologic cycle. The results show that cumulus parameterization has a very significant influence on the simulation circulation and precipitation. The upper-level condensation heating over the ITCZ is much smaller for the experiment simulations as compared to the control simulations; correspondingly, the Hadley and Walker cells for the control simulations are also weaker and are accompanied by a weaker Ferrel cell in the Southern Hemisphere. Overall, the difference fields show that experiment simulations (without cumulus convection) produce a cooler and less energetic atmosphere.

Stable water isotope behavior during the last glacial maximum: A general circulation model analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jouzel, Jean; Koster, Randal D.; Suozzo, Robert J.; Russell, Gary L.

1994-01-01

Global water isotope geochemisty during the last glacial maximum (LGM) is simulated with an 8 deg x 10 deg atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The simulation results suggest that the spatial delta O-18/temperature relationships observed for the present day and LGM climates are very similar. Furthermore, the temporal delta O-18/temperature relationship is similar to the present-day spatial relationship in regions for which the LGM/present-day temperature change is significant. This helps justify the standard practice of applying the latter to the interpretation of paleodata, despite the possible influence of other factors, such as changes in the evaportive sources of precipitation or in the seasonality of precipitation. The model suggests, for example, that temperature shifts inferred from ice core data may differ from the true shifts by only about 30%.

Future Changes in Autumn Flood Type and Frequency in Pacific Northwest North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menounos, B.; Cannon, A. J.; Radic, V.; Moore, R. D.; Dery, S. J.; Jackson, P. L.; Anslow, F. S.

2013-12-01

During the 20th and early 21st century, autumn storms in the Pacific Northwest of North America - PNWNA (coastal British Columbia and Washington) caused widespread flooding and landslides. Understanding how these intense storms are likely to change in the future is important given their potential to harm people and cause widespread damage, but assessing these changes using climate models is difficult. Parameterization of precipitation in general circulation and regional climate models (GCM, RCM) is prone to error, especially in the mountainous terrain of the PNWNA. High computational demands of RCMs also limits their use in assessing changes in flood type and frequency for a suite of GCM and emission scenarios. We instead focus our efforts on understanding atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for historical autumn flooding (15 August - 31 December) and examine how these synoptic conditions are likely to change under future emission scenarios. Our analysis includes identification of extreme events (runoff and precipitation) in streamflow and precipitation records from coastal Washington and British Columbia for the period 1948-2010. Our methods to link the instrumental record of extreme autumn events to atmospheric conditions (500 and 850 hPa geopotential height and integrated vapor transport obtained from NCEP and CFSR reanalysis) include: (1) compositing of streamflow and precipitation events (environment-to-circulation); (2) self organizing map synoptic classification (circulation-to-environment); and (3) regression tree synoptic classification (hybrid of environment-to-circulation and circulation-to-environment). We then evaluate changes in flood-generating synoptic types in the CMIP5 ensemble over the period 2010-2100. Our analysis indicates that, as expected, most floods are associated with atmospheric river events that are commonly associated with upper level, quasi stationary low- and high-pressure systems respectively located in the Gulf of Alaska and east of the PNWNA. Based on our initial analysis of the CMIP5 data, we note an increase in autumn flood-producing synoptic weather types for the PNWNA. We discuss the implications of increased autumn flooding to communities and infrastructure.

Sensitivity of the Greenland Ice Sheet to Pliocene sea surface temperatures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Daniel J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Haywood, Alan M.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Stoll, Danielle K.

2010-01-01

PRISM3).Use of these different SSTswithin theHadley CentreGCM(GeneralCirculationModel) and BASISM (BritishAntarctic Survey Ice Sheet Model), consistently show large reductions of Pliocene Greenland ice volumes compared to modern. The changes in climate introduced by the use of different SST reconstructions do change the predicted ice volumes, mainly through precipitation feedbacks. However, the models show a relatively low sensitivity of modelled Greenland ice volumes to different mid-Piacenzian SST reconstructions, with the largest SST induced changes being 20% of Pliocene ice volume or less than a metre of sea-level rise.

Chemical Mechanisms and Their Applications in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model.

PubMed

Nielsen, J Eric; Pawson, Steven; Molod, Andrea; Auer, Benjamin; da Silva, Arlindo M; Douglass, Anne R; Duncan, Bryan; Liang, Qing; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D; Putman, William; Strahan, Susan E; Wargan, Krzysztof

2017-12-01

NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model (ESM) is a modular, general circulation model (GCM), and data assimilation system (DAS) that is used to simulate and study the coupled dynamics, physics, chemistry, and biology of our planet. GEOS is developed by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. It generates near-real-time analyzed data products, reanalyses, and weather and seasonal forecasts to support research targeted to understanding interactions among Earth System processes. For chemistry, our efforts are focused on ozone and its influence on the state of the atmosphere and oceans, and on trace gas data assimilation and global forecasting at mesoscale discretization. Several chemistry and aerosol modules are coupled to the GCM, which enables GEOS to address topics pertinent to NASA's Earth Science Mission. This paper describes the atmospheric chemistry components of GEOS and provides an overview of its Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)-based software infrastructure, which promotes a rich spectrum of feedbacks that influence circulation and climate, and impact human and ecosystem health. We detail how GEOS allows model users to select chemical mechanisms and emission scenarios at run time, establish the extent to which the aerosol and chemical components communicate, and decide whether either or both influence the radiative transfer calculations. A variety of resolutions facilitates research on spatial and temporal scales relevant to problems ranging from hourly changes in air quality to trace gas trends in a changing climate. Samples of recent GEOS chemistry applications are provided.

Chemical Mechanisms and Their Applications in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model

PubMed Central

Pawson, Steven; Molod, Andrea; Auer, Benjamin; da Silva, Arlindo M.; Douglass, Anne R.; Duncan, Bryan; Liang, Qing; Manyin, Michael; Oman, Luke D.; Putman, William; Strahan, Susan E.; Wargan, Krzysztof

2017-01-01

Abstract NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Earth System Model (ESM) is a modular, general circulation model (GCM), and data assimilation system (DAS) that is used to simulate and study the coupled dynamics, physics, chemistry, and biology of our planet. GEOS is developed by the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. It generates near‐real‐time analyzed data products, reanalyses, and weather and seasonal forecasts to support research targeted to understanding interactions among Earth System processes. For chemistry, our efforts are focused on ozone and its influence on the state of the atmosphere and oceans, and on trace gas data assimilation and global forecasting at mesoscale discretization. Several chemistry and aerosol modules are coupled to the GCM, which enables GEOS to address topics pertinent to NASA's Earth Science Mission. This paper describes the atmospheric chemistry components of GEOS and provides an overview of its Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF)‐based software infrastructure, which promotes a rich spectrum of feedbacks that influence circulation and climate, and impact human and ecosystem health. We detail how GEOS allows model users to select chemical mechanisms and emission scenarios at run time, establish the extent to which the aerosol and chemical components communicate, and decide whether either or both influence the radiative transfer calculations. A variety of resolutions facilitates research on spatial and temporal scales relevant to problems ranging from hourly changes in air quality to trace gas trends in a changing climate. Samples of recent GEOS chemistry applications are provided. PMID:29497478

Regional climates in the GISS general circulation model: Surface air temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewitson, Bruce

1994-01-01

One of the more viable research techniques into global climate change for the purpose of understanding the consequent environmental impacts is based on the use of general circulation models (GCMs). However, GCMs are currently unable to reliably predict the regional climate change resulting from global warming, and it is at the regional scale that predictions are required for understanding human and environmental responses. Regional climates in the extratropics are in large part governed by the synoptic-scale circulation and the feasibility of using this interscale relationship is explored to provide a way of moving to grid cell and sub-grid cell scales in the model. The relationships between the daily circulation systems and surface air temperature for points across the continental United States are first developed in a quantitative form using a multivariate index based on principal components analysis (PCA) of the surface circulation. These relationships are then validated by predicting daily temperature using observed circulation and comparing the predicted values with the observed temperatures. The relationships predict surface temperature accurately over the major portion of the country in winter, and for half the country in summer. These relationships are then applied to the surface synoptic circulation of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM control run, and a set of surface grid cell temperatures are generated. These temperatures, based on the larger-scale validated circulation, may now be used with greater confidence at the regional scale. The generated temperatures are compared to those of the model and show that the model has regional errors of up to 10 C in individual grid cells.

Overall uncertainty study of the hydrological impacts of climate change for a Canadian watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Jie; Brissette, FrançOis P.; Poulin, Annie; Leconte, Robert

2011-12-01

General circulation models (GCMs) and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (GGES) are generally considered to be the two major sources of uncertainty in quantifying the climate change impacts on hydrology. Other sources of uncertainty have been given less attention. This study considers overall uncertainty by combining results from an ensemble of two GGES, six GCMs, five GCM initial conditions, four downscaling techniques, three hydrological model structures, and 10 sets of hydrological model parameters. Each climate projection is equally weighted to predict the hydrology on a Canadian watershed for the 2081-2100 horizon. The results show that the choice of GCM is consistently a major contributor to uncertainty. However, other sources of uncertainty, such as the choice of a downscaling method and the GCM initial conditions, also have a comparable or even larger uncertainty for some hydrological variables. Uncertainties linked to GGES and the hydrological model structure are somewhat less than those related to GCMs and downscaling techniques. Uncertainty due to the hydrological model parameter selection has the least important contribution among all the variables considered. Overall, this research underlines the importance of adequately covering all sources of uncertainty. A failure to do so may result in moderately to severely biased climate change impact studies. Results further indicate that the major contributors to uncertainty vary depending on the hydrological variables selected, and that the methodology presented in this paper is successful at identifying the key sources of uncertainty to consider for a climate change impact study.

Effects of Meteorological Variability on the Thermosphere-Ionosphere System during the Moderate Geomagnetic Disturbed January 2013 Period As Simulated By Time-GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Richmond, A. D.; Liu, H.; Yudin, V. A.

2014-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is affected by solar and magnetospheric processes and by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of total electron content during the current solar cycle have shown that variability associated with meteorological forcing is important during solar minimum, and can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to study the comparative importance of geomagnetic and meterological forcing.This study focuses on the January 2013 Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) period, which is associated with a very disturbed middle atmosphere as well as with moderately disturbed solar geomagntic conditions. We employ the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) with a nudging scheme using Whole-Atmosphere-Community-Climate-Model-Extended (WACCM-X)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS5) results to simulate the effects of the meteorological and solar wind forcing on the upper atmosphere. The model results are evaluated by comparing with observations e.g., TEC, NmF2, ion drifts. We study the effect of the SSW on the wave spectrum, and the associated changes in the low latitude vertical drifts. These changes are compared to the impact of the moderate geomagnetic forcing on the TI-system during the January 2013 time period by conducting numerical experiments. We will present select highlights from our study and elude to the comparative importance of the forcing from above and below as simulated by the TIME-GCM.

A Lagrangian analysis of a sudden stratospheric warming - Comparison of a model simulation and LIMS observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pierce, R. B.; Remsberg, Ellis E.; Fairlie, T. D.; Blackshear, W. T.; Grose, William L.; Turner, Richard E.

1992-01-01

Lagrangian area diagnostics and trajectory techniques are used to investigate the radiative and dynamical characteristics of a spontaneous sudden warming which occurred during a 2-yr Langley Research Center model simulation. The ability of the Langley Research Center GCM to simulate the major features of the stratospheric circulation during such highly disturbed periods is illustrated by comparison of the simulated warming to the observed circulation during the LIMS observation period. The apparent sink of vortex area associated with Rossby wave-breaking accounts for the majority of the reduction of the size of the vortex and also acts to offset the radiatively driven increase in the area occupied by the 'surf zone'. Trajectory analysis of selected material lines substantiates the conclusions from the area diagnostics.

Quantifying Precipitation Variability on Titan Using a GCM and Implications for Observed Geomorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, Sean P.; Mitchell, Jonathan L.; Moon, Seulgi; Lora, Juan Manuel

2016-10-01

Titan's zonal-mean precipitation behavior has been widely investigated using general circulation models (GCMs), but the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Titan's active hydrologic cycle is less well understood. We conduct statistical analyses of rainfall, diagnosed from GCM simulations of Titan's atmosphere, to determine storm intensity and frequency. Intense storms of methane have been proposed to be critical for enabling mechanical erosion of Titan's surface, as indicated by observations of dendritic valley networks. Using precipitation outputs from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), a GCM shown to realistically simulate many features of Titan's atmosphere, we quantify the precipitation variability within eight separate latitude bins for a variety of initial surface liquid distributions. We find that while the overall wettest regions are indeed the poles, the most intense rainfall generally occurs in the high mid-latitudes, between 45-67.5 degrees, consistent with recent geomorphological observations of alluvial fans concentrated at those latitudes. We also find that precipitation rates necessary for surface erosion, as estimated by Perron et al. (2006) J. Geophys. Res. 111, E11001, frequently occur at all latitudes, with recurrence intervals of less than one Titan year. Such analysis is crucial towards understanding the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface and defining the influence of precipitation on observed geomorphology.

Global structure and seasonal variability of the migrating terdiurnal tide in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Jia; Xu, Jiyao; Chang, Loren C.; Wu, Qian; Liu, Han-Li; Lu, Xian; Russell, James

2013-12-01

The morphology of the migrating terdiurnal tide with zonal wavenumber 3 (TW3) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) is revealed using the TIMED satellite datasets from the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) and the TIMED Doppler Interferometer (TIDI) instruments from 2002 to 2009, as well as the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The annual mean structures of the TW3 from the TIME-GCM clearly resemble the first real symmetric (3,3) Hough mode. The TW3 temperature and zonal wind components have three peaks at midlatitudes and near the equator, while the TW3 meridional wind components show four peaks at mid and low latitudes. These features are consistent with those resolved in SABER temperature and TIDI zonal wind above ~95 km. TW3 components in the TIME-GCM are stronger during winter and spring months at midlatitudes, which is in agreement with previous ground-based radar measurements. On the other hand, TW3 components of temperature, zonal and meridional winds from SABER and TIDI display different seasonal variations at different altitudes and latitudes. The results presented in this paper will provide an observational basis for further modeling study of terdiurnal tide impacts on the thermosphere and ionosphere.

The ECCO Family of State Estimates: An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wunsch, C.

2008-12-01

The idea of ECCO (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean)originated in the middle 1980s, when it became apparent that a global oceanographic observing system for the general circulation would become a reality as it did through the World Ocean Circulation Experiment. Observational design involved extremely diverse technologies and oceanic flow regimes. To be physically interpretable, these diverse data and physical processes would need to be combined into a useful, coherent, whole. Such a synthesis can only be done with a skillful GCM having useful resolution. ECCO originated as an experiment to demonstrate the technical feasibility of such a synthesis and to determine if any of several possible methods was preferable. In contrast to a number of other superficially similar efforts, mainly derived from weather forecasting methods, the ECCO goal was to estimate the long-term circulation mean and its variability on climate (decadal and longer) time scales in a form exactly satisfying known equations of motion. ECCO was made feasible with the simultaneous construction of a new GCM (MIT) along with the development of an automatic differentiation (AD) software tool(now called TAF) which rendered practical the method of Lagrange multipliers (called the adjoint method in oceanography). Parallel developments of simplified sequential methods (smoothers) provided an alternative, also practical, methodology. One can now use the existing (publicly available) machinery to discuss the ocean circulation and its variability. The huge variety of issues connected with the global circulation has meant that an entire family of estimates has grown up, each having different emphases (primarily global; but some primarily regional---the tropics, the Southern Ocean); some focussed on physics---the role of eddies or sea ice). The methodology leads, usefully, to intense scrutiny of data and model errors and spatio-temporal coverage. As with any estimation problem, no uniquely 'correct' solution is now or ever going to be possible-- -only evolving best estimates. Further development of these and similar methodologies appears to be a necessary, inevitable, and growing component of oceanography and climate.

A rank-based approach for correcting systematic biases in spatial disaggregation of coarse-scale climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nahar, Jannatun; Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

2017-07-01

Use of General Circulation Model (GCM) precipitation and evapotranspiration sequences for hydrologic modelling can result in unrealistic simulations due to the coarse scales at which GCMs operate and the systematic biases they contain. The Bias Correction Spatial Disaggregation (BCSD) method is a popular statistical downscaling and bias correction method developed to address this issue. The advantage of BCSD is its ability to reduce biases in the distribution of precipitation totals at the GCM scale and then introduce more realistic variability at finer scales than simpler spatial interpolation schemes. Although BCSD corrects biases at the GCM scale before disaggregation; at finer spatial scales biases are re-introduced by the assumptions made in the spatial disaggregation process. Our study focuses on this limitation of BCSD and proposes a rank-based approach that aims to reduce the spatial disaggregation bias especially for both low and high precipitation extremes. BCSD requires the specification of a multiplicative bias correction anomaly field that represents the ratio of the fine scale precipitation to the disaggregated precipitation. It is shown that there is significant temporal variation in the anomalies, which is masked when a mean anomaly field is used. This can be improved by modelling the anomalies in rank-space. Results from the application of the rank-BCSD procedure improve the match between the distributions of observed and downscaled precipitation at the fine scale compared to the original BCSD approach. Further improvements in the distribution are identified when a scaling correction to preserve mass in the disaggregation process is implemented. An assessment of the approach using a single GCM over Australia shows clear advantages especially in the simulation of particularly low and high downscaled precipitation amounts.

Water Resource Assessment in KRS Reservoir Using Remote Sensing and GIS Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manubabu, V. H.; Gouda, K. C.; Bhat, N.; Reddy, A.

2014-12-01

In the recent time the fresh water resource becomes very important because of various reasons like population growth, pollution, over exploitation of the ground water resources etc. As there is no efficient and proper measures for recharging ground water exists and also the climatological impacts on water resources like global warming exacerbating water shortages, growing populations and rising demand for freshwater in agriculture, industry, and energy production. There is a need and challenging task for analyzing the future changes in regional water availability and it is also very much necessary to asses and predict the fresh water present in a lake or reservoir to make better decision making in the optimal usage of surface water. In the present study is intended to provide a practical discussion of methodology that deals with how to asses and predict amount of surface water available in the future using Remote Sensing(RS) data , Geographical Information System(GIS) techniques, and GCM (Global Circulation Model). Basically the study emphasized over one of the biggest reservoir i.e. the Krishna Raja Sagara (KRS) reservoir situated in the state of Karnataka in India. Multispectral satellite images like IRS LISS III and Landsat L8 from different open source web portals like NRSC-Bhuvan and NASA Earth Explorer respectively are used for the present analysis. The multispectral satellite images are used to identify the temporal changes of the water quantity in the reservoir for the period 2000 to 2014. Also the water volume are being calculated using Advances Space born Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global DEM over the reservoir basin. The hydro meteorological parameters are also studied using multi-source observed data and the empirical water budget models for the reservoir in terms of rainfall, temperature, run off, water inflow and outflow etc. are being developed and analyzed. Statistical analysis are also carried out to quantify the relation between reservoir water volume and the hydrological parameters (Figure 1). A general circulation model (GCM) is used for the prediction of major hydro meteorological parameters like rainfall and using the GCM predictions the water availability in terms of water volume in future are simulated using the empirical water budget model.

Evaluating GCM land surface hydrology parameterizations by computing river discharges using a runoff routing model: Application to the Mississippi basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liston, G. E.; Sud, Y. C.; Wood, E. F.

1994-01-01

To relate general circulation model (GCM) hydrologic output to readily available river hydrographic data, a runoff routing scheme that routes gridded runoffs through regional- or continental-scale river drainage basins is developed. By following the basin overland flow paths, the routing model generates river discharge hydrographs that can be compared to observed river discharges, thus allowing an analysis of the GCM representation of monthly, seasonal, and annual water balances over large regions. The runoff routing model consists of two linear reservoirs, a surface reservoir and a groundwater reservoir, which store and transport water. The water transport mechanisms operating within these two reservoirs are differentiated by their time scales; the groundwater reservoir transports water much more slowly than the surface reservior. The groundwater reservior feeds the corresponding surface store, and the surface stores are connected via the river network. The routing model is implemented over the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Continental-Scale International Project Mississippi River basin on a rectangular grid of 2 deg X 2.5 deg. Two land surface hydrology parameterizations provide the gridded runoff data required to run the runoff routing scheme: the variable infiltration capacity model, and the soil moisture component of the simple biosphere model. These parameterizations are driven with 4 deg X 5 deg gridded climatological potential evapotranspiration and 1979 First Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Global Experiment precipitation. These investigations have quantified the importance of physically realistic soil moisture holding capacities, evaporation parameters, and runoff mechanisms in land surface hydrology formulations.

Impact of Dust on Mars Surface Albedo and Energy Flux with LMD General Circulation Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, D.; Flanner, M.; Millour, E.; Martinez, G.

2015-12-01

Mars, just like Earth experience different seasons because of its axial tilt (about 25°). This causes growth and retreat of snow cover (primarily CO2) in Martian Polar regions. The perennial caps are the only place on the planet where condensed H2O is available at surface. On Mars, as much as 30% atmospheric CO2 deposits in each hemisphere depending upon the season. This leads to a significant variation on planet's surface albedo and hence effecting the amount of solar flux absorbed or reflected at the surface. General Circulation Model (GCM) of Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD) currently uses observationally derived surface albedo from Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument for the polar caps. These TES albedo values do not have any inter-annual variability, and are independent of presence of any dust/impurity on surface. Presence of dust or other surface impurities can significantly reduce the surface albedo especially during and right after a dust storm. This change will also be evident in the surface energy flux interactions. Our work focuses on combining earth based Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiation (SNICAR) model with current state of GCM to incorporate the impact of dust on Martian surface albedo, and hence the energy flux. Inter-annual variability of surface albedo and planet's top of atmosphere (TOA) energy budget along with their correlation with currently available mission data will be presented.

Timescales of Land Surface Evapotranspiration Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, Russell; Entekhabi, Dara; Koster, Randal; Suarez, Max

1997-01-01

Soil and vegetation exert strong control over the evapotranspiration rate, which couples the land surface water and energy balances. A method is presented to quantify the timescale of this surface control using daily general circulation model (GCM) simulation values of evapotranspiration and precipitation. By equating the time history of evaporation efficiency (ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration) to the convolution of precipitation and a unit kernel (temporal weighting function), response functions are generated that can be used to characterize the timescales of evapotranspiration response for the land surface model (LSM) component of GCMS. The technique is applied to the output of two multiyear simulations of a GCM, one using a Surface-Vegetation-Atmosphere-Transfer (SVAT) scheme and the other a Bucket LSM. The derived response functions show that the Bucket LSM's response is significantly slower than that of the SVAT across the globe. The analysis also shows how the timescales of interception reservoir evaporation, bare soil evaporation, and vegetation transpiration differ within the SVAT LSM.

Dependence of stratocumulus-topped boundary-layer entrainment on cloud-water sedimentation: Impact on global aerosol indirect effect in GISS ModelE3 single column model and global simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, A. S.; Kelley, M.; Cheng, Y.; Fridlind, A. M.; Del Genio, A. D.; Bauer, S.

2017-12-01

Reduction in cloud-water sedimentation induced by increasing droplet concentrations has been shown in large-eddy simulations (LES) and direct numerical simulation (DNS) to enhance boundary-layer entrainment, thereby reducing cloud liquid water path and offsetting the Twomey effect when the overlying air is sufficiently dry, which is typical. Among recent upgrades to ModelE3, the latest version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM), are a two-moment stratiform cloud microphysics treatment with prognostic precipitation and a moist turbulence scheme that includes an option in its entrainment closure of a simple parameterization for the effect of cloud-water sedimentation. Single column model (SCM) simulations are compared to LES results for a stratocumulus case study and show that invoking the sedimentation-entrainment parameterization option indeed reduces the dependence of cloud liquid water path on increasing aerosol concentrations. Impacts of variations of the SCM configuration and the sedimentation-entrainment parameterization will be explored. Its impact on global aerosol indirect forcing in the framework of idealized atmospheric GCM simulations will also be assessed.

Incremental dynamical downscaling for probabilistic analysis based on multiple GCM projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wakazuki, Y.

2015-12-01

A dynamical downscaling method for probabilistic regional scale climate change projections was developed to cover an uncertainty of multiple general circulation model (GCM) climate simulations. The climatological increments (future minus present climate states) estimated by GCM simulation results were statistically analyzed using the singular vector decomposition. Both positive and negative perturbations from the ensemble mean with the magnitudes of their standard deviations were extracted and were added to the ensemble mean of the climatological increments. The analyzed multiple modal increments were utilized to create multiple modal lateral boundary conditions for the future climate regional climate model (RCM) simulations by adding to an objective analysis data. This data handling is regarded to be an advanced method of the pseudo-global-warming (PGW) method previously developed by Kimura and Kitoh (2007). The incremental handling for GCM simulations realized approximated probabilistic climate change projections with the smaller number of RCM simulations. Three values of a climatological variable simulated by RCMs for a mode were used to estimate the response to the perturbation of the mode. For the probabilistic analysis, climatological variables of RCMs were assumed to show linear response to the multiple modal perturbations, although the non-linearity was seen for local scale rainfall. Probability of temperature was able to be estimated within two modes perturbation simulations, where the number of RCM simulations for the future climate is five. On the other hand, local scale rainfalls needed four modes simulations, where the number of the RCM simulations is nine. The probabilistic method is expected to be used for regional scale climate change impact assessment in the future.

Constraints on Cumulus Parameterization from Simulations of Observed MJO Events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Del Genio, Anthony; Wu, Jingbo; Wolf, Audrey B.; Chen, Yonghua; Yao, Mao-Sung; Kim, Daehyun

2015-01-01

Two recent activities offer an opportunity to test general circulation model (GCM) convection and its interaction with large-scale dynamics for observed Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events. This study evaluates the sensitivity of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM to entrainment, rain evaporation, downdrafts, and cold pools. Single Column Model versions that restrict weakly entraining convection produce the most realistic dependence of convection depth on column water vapor (CWV) during the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement MJO Investigation Experiment at Gan Island. Differences among models are primarily at intermediate CWV where the transition from shallow to deeper convection occurs. GCM 20-day hindcasts during the Year of Tropical Convection that best capture the shallow–deep transition also produce strong MJOs, with significant predictability compared to Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data. The dry anomaly east of the disturbance on hindcast day 1 is a good predictor of MJO onset and evolution. Initial CWV there is near the shallow–deep transition point, implicating premature onset of deep convection as a predictor of a poor MJO simulation. Convection weakly moistens the dry region in good MJO simulations in the first week; weakening of large-scale subsidence over this time may also affect MJO onset. Longwave radiation anomalies are weakest in the worst model version, consistent with previous analyses of cloud/moisture greenhouse enhancement as the primary MJO energy source. The authors’ results suggest that both cloud-/moisture-radiative interactions and convection–moisture sensitivity are required to produce a successful MJO simulation.

Atmospheric circulations required for thick high-altitude clouds and featureless transit spectra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, H.; Wordsworth, R. D.

2017-12-01

The transmission spectra of exoplanet GJ 1214b and GJ 436b are featureless as measured by current instruments. According to the measured density of these planets, we have reason to believe these planets have atmospheres, and the spectroscopy features of the atmospheres are unexpectedly not shown in the transit spectra. An explanation is high-altitude clouds or hazes are optically thick enough to make the transit spectra flat in the current observed wavelength range. We analyze the atmospheric circulations and vertical mixing that are crucial for the possible existence of the thick high-altitude clouds. We perform a series of GCM simulations with different atmospheric compositions and planetary parameters to reveal the conditions that are required for showing featureless spectra, and study the dynamical processes. We also study the role of cloud particles with different sizes, compositions and spectral characteristics with a radiative transfer model and cloud physics models. Varying the compositions and sizes of the cloud particles results in different requirements for the atmospheric circulations.

Observational and modeling studies of heat, moisture, precipitation, and global-scale circulation patterns

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vincent, Dayton G.; Robertson, Franklin

1993-01-01

The research sponsored by this grant is a continuation and an extension of the work conducted under a previous contract, 'South Pacific Convergence Zone and Global-Scale Circulations'. In the prior work, we conducted a detailed investigation of the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ), and documented many of its significant features and characteristics. We also conducted studies of its interaction with global-scale circulation features through the use of both observational and modeling studies. The latter was accomplished toward the end of the contract when Dr. James Hurrell, then a Ph.D. candidate, successfully ported the NASA GLA general circulation model (GCM) to Purdue University. In our present grant, we have expanded our previous research to include studies of other convectively-driven circulation systems in the tropics besides the SPCZ. Furthermore, we have continued to examine the relationship between these convective systems and global-scale circulation patterns. Our recent research efforts have focused on three objectives: (1) determining the periodicity of large-scale bands of organized convection in the tropics, primarily synoptic to intraseasonal time scales in the Southern Hemisphere; (2) examining the relative importance of tropical versus mid-latitude forcing for Southern Hemisphere summertime subtropical jets, particularly over the Pacific Ocean; and (3) estimating tropical precipitation, especially over oceans, using observational and budget methods. A summary list of our most significant accomplishments in the past year is given.

Inter-sectoral comparison of model uncertainty of climate change impacts in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Griensven, Ann; Vetter, Tobias; Piontek, Franzisca; Gosling, Simon N.; Kamali, Bahareh; Reinhardt, Julia; Dinkneh, Aklilu; Yang, Hong; Alemayehu, Tadesse

2016-04-01

We present the model results and their uncertainties of an inter-sectoral impact model inter-comparison initiative (ISI-MIP) for climate change impacts in Africa. The study includes results on hydrological, crop and health aspects. The impact models used ensemble inputs consisting of 20 time series of daily rainfall and temperature data obtained from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and 4 Representative concentration pathway (RCP). In this study, we analysed model uncertainty for the Regional Hydrological Models, Global Hydrological Models, Malaria models and Crop models. For the regional hydrological models, we used 2 African test cases: the Blue Nile in Eastern Africa and the Niger in Western Africa. For both basins, the main sources of uncertainty are originating from the GCM and RCPs, while the uncertainty of the regional hydrological models is relatively low. The hydrological model uncertainty becomes more important when predicting changes on low flows compared to mean or high flows. For the other sectors, the impact models have the largest share of uncertainty compared to GCM and RCP, especially for Malaria and crop modelling. The overall conclusion of the ISI-MIP is that it is strongly advised to use ensemble modeling approach for climate change impact studies throughout the whole modelling chain.

Global Modeling, Field Campaigns, Upscaling and Ray Desjardins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sellers, P. J.; Hall, F. G.

2012-01-01

In the early 1980's, it became apparent that land surface radiation and energy budgets were unrealistically represented in Global Circulation models (GCM's), Shortly thereafter, it became clear that the land carbon budget was also poorly represented in Earth System Models (ESM's), A number of scientific communities, including GCM/ESM modelers, micrometeorologists, satellite data specialists and plant physiologists, came together to design field experiments that could be used to develop and validate the contemporary prototype land surface models. These experiments were designed to measure land surface fluxes of radiation, heat, water vapor and CO2 using a network of flux towers and other plot-scale techniques, coincident with satellite measurements of related state variables, The interdisciplinary teams involved in these experiments quickly became aware of the scale gap between plot-scale measurements (approx 10 - 100m), satellite measurements (100m - 10 km), and GCM grid areas (l0 - 200km). At the time, there was no established flux measurement capability to bridge these scale gaps. Then, a Canadian science learn led by Ray Desjardins started to actively participate in the design and execution of the experiments, with airborne eddy correlation providing the radically innovative bridge across the scale gaps, In a succession of brilliantly executed field campaigns followed up by convincing scientific analyses, they demonstrated that airborne eddy correlation allied with satellite data was the most powerful upscaling tool available to the community, The rest is history: the realism and credibility of weather and climate models has been enormously improved enormously over the last 25 years with immense benefits to the public and policymakers.

Mesosacle eddies in a high resolution OGCM and coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Y.; Liu, H.; Lin, P.

2017-12-01

The present study described high-resolution climate modeling efforts including oceanic, atmospheric and coupled general circulation model (GCM) at the state key laboratory of numerical modeling for atmospheric sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). The high-resolution OGCM is established based on the latest version of the LASG/IAP Climate system Ocean Model (LICOM2.1), but its horizontal resolution and vertical resolution are increased to 1/10° and 55 layers, respectively. Forced by the surface fluxes from the reanalysis and observed data, the model has been integrated for approximately more than 80 model years. Compared with the simulation of the coarse-resolution OGCM, the eddy-resolving OGCM not only better simulates the spatial-temporal features of mesoscale eddies and the paths and positions of western boundary currents but also reproduces the large meander of the Kuroshio Current and its interannual variability. Another aspect, namely, the complex structures of equatorial Pacific currents and currents in the coastal ocean of China, are better captured due to the increased horizontal and vertical resolution. Then we coupled the high resolution OGCM to NCAR CAM4 with 25km resolution, in which the mesoscale air-sea interaction processes are better captured.

Mapping (un)certainties in the sign of hydrological projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melsen, Lieke; Addor, Nans; Mizukami, Naoki; Newman, Andrew; Torfs, Paul; Clark, Martyn; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Teuling, Ryan

2017-04-01

While hydrological projections are of vital importance, particularly for water infrastructure design and food production, they are also prone to different sources of uncertainty. Using a multi-model set-up we investigated the uncertainty in hydrological projections for the period 2070-2100 associated with the parameterization of hydrological models, hydrological model structure, and General Circulation Models (GCMs) needed to force the hydrological model, for 605 basins throughout the contiguous United States. The use of such a large sample of basins gave us the opportunity to recognize spatial patterns in the results, and to attribute the uncertainty to particular hydrological processes. We investigated the sign of the projected change in mean annual runoff. The parameterization influenced the sign of change in 5 to 34% of the basins, depending on the hydrological model and GCM forcing. The hydrological model structure led to uncertainty in the sign of the change in 13 to 26% of the basins, depending on GCM forcing. This uncertainty could largely be attributed to the conceptualization of snow processes in the hydrological models. In 14% of the basins, none of the hydrological models was behavioural, which could be related to catchments with high aridity and intermittent flow behaviour. In 41 to 69% of the basins, the sign of the change was uncertain due to GCM forcing, which could be attributed to disagreement among the climate models regarding the projected change in precipitation. The results demonstrate that even the sign of change in mean annual runoff is highly uncertain in the majority of the investigated basins. If we want to use hydrological projections for water management purposes, including the design of water infrastructure, we clearly need to increase our understanding of climate and hydrological processes and their feedbacks.

A bottom-up evolution of terrestrial ecosystem modeling theory, and ideas toward global vegetation modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Running, Steven W.

1992-01-01

A primary purpose of this review is to convey lessons learned in the development of a forest ecosystem modeling approach, from it origins in 1973 as a single-tree water balance model to the current regional applications. The second intent is to use this accumulated experience to offer ideas of how terrestrial ecosystem modeling can be taken to the global scale: earth systems modeling. A logic is suggested where mechanistic ecosystem models are not themselves operated globally, but rather are used to 'calibrate' much simplified models, primarily driven by remote sensing, that could be implemented in a semiautomated way globally, and in principle could interface with atmospheric general circulation models (GCM's).

Quantifying the effect of varying GHG's concentration in Regional Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Romero, Jose Maria; Jerez, Sonia; Palacios-Peña, Laura; José Gómez-Navarro, Juan; Jiménez-Guerrero, Pedro; Montavez, Juan Pedro

2017-04-01

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are driven at the boundaries by Global Circulation Models (GCM), and in the particular case of Climate Change projections, such simulations are forced by varying greenhouse gases (GHGs) concentrations. In hindcast simulations driven by reanalysis products, the climate change signal is usually introduced in the assimilation process as well. An interesting question arising in this context is whether GHGs concentrations have to be varied within the RCMs model itself, or rather they should be kept constant. Some groups keep the GHGs concentrations constant under the assumption that information about climate change signal is given throughout the boundaries; sometimes certain radiation parameterization schemes do not permit such changes. Other approaches vary these concentrations arguing that this preserves the physical coherence respect to the driving conditions for the RCM. This work aims to shed light on this topic. For this task, various regional climate simulations with the WRF model for the 1954-2004 period have been carried out for using a Euro-CORDEX compliant domain. A series of simulations with constant and variable GHGs have been performed using both, a GCM (ECHAM6-OM) and a reanalysis product (ERA-20C) data. Results indicate that there exist noticeable differences when introducing varying GHGs concentrations within the RCM domain. The differences in 2-m temperature series between the experiments with varying or constant GHGs concentration strongly depend on the atmospheric conditions, appearing a strong interannual variability. This suggests that short-term experiments are not recommended if the aim is to assess the role of varying GHGs. In addition, and consistently in both GCM and reanalysis-driven experiments, the magnitude of temperature trends, as well as the spatial pattern represented by varying GHGs experiment, are closer to the driving dataset than in experiments keeping constant the GHGs concentration. These results point towards the need for the inclusion of varying GHGs concentration within the RCM itself when dynamically downscaling global datasets, both in GCM and hindcast simulations.

Understanding uncertainty in precipitation changes in a balanced perturbed-physics ensemble under multiple climate forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Ingram, W.; Allen, M. R.; Lowe, J.

2013-12-01

Temperature and precipitation patterns are the climate variables with the greatest impacts on both natural and human systems. Due to the small spatial scales and the many interactions involved in the global hydrological cycle, in general circulation models (GCMs) representations of precipitation changes are subject to considerable uncertainty. Quantifying and understanding the causes of uncertainty (and identifying robust features of predictions) in both global and local precipitation change is an essential challenge of climate science. We have used the huge distributed computing capacity of the climateprediction.net citizen science project to examine parametric uncertainty in an ensemble of 20,000 perturbed-physics versions of the HadCM3 general circulation model. The ensemble has been selected to have a control climate in top-of-atmosphere energy balance [Yamazaki et al. 2013, J.G.R.]. We force this ensemble with several idealised climate-forcing scenarios including carbon dioxide step and transient profiles, solar radiation management geoengineering experiments with stratospheric aerosols, and short-lived climate forcing agents. We will present the results from several of these forcing scenarios under GCM parametric uncertainty. We examine the global mean precipitation energy budget to understand the robustness of a simple non-linear global precipitation model [Good et al. 2012, Clim. Dyn.] as a better explanation of precipitation changes in transient climate projections under GCM parametric uncertainty than a simple linear tropospheric energy balance model. We will also present work investigating robust conclusions about precipitation changes in a balanced ensemble of idealised solar radiation management scenarios [Kravitz et al. 2011, Atmos. Sci. Let.].

Snow Cover and Precipitation Impacts on Dry Season Streamflow in the Lower Mekong Basin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Bell, A. R.; Anchukaitis, K. J.; Buckley, B. M.

2012-01-01

Climate change impacts on dry season streamflow in the Mekong River are relatively understudied, despite the fact that water availability during this time is critically important for agricultural and ecological systems. Analyses of two gauging stations (Vientiane and Kratie) in the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) show significant positive correlations between dry season (March through May, MAM) discharge and upper basin snow cover and local precipitation. Using snow cover, precipitation, and upstream discharge as predictors, we develop skillful regression models for MAM streamflow at Vientiane and Kratie, and force these models with output from a suite of general circulation model (GCM) experiments for the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The GCM simulations predict divergent trends in snow cover (decreasing) and precipitation (increasing) over the twenty-first century, driving overall negligible long-term trends in dry season streamflow. Our study demonstrates how future changes in dry season streamflow in the LMB will depend on changes in snow cover and precipitation, factors that will need to be considered when assessing the full basin response to other climatic and non-climatic drivers.

The parameterization of the planetary boundary layer in the UCLA general circulation model - Formulation and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, M. J.; Arakawa, A.; Randall, D. A.

1983-01-01

A planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization for general circulation models (GCMs) is presented. It uses a mixed-layer approach in which the PBL is assumed to be capped by discontinuities in the mean vertical profiles. Both clear and cloud-topped boundary layers are parameterized. Particular emphasis is placed on the formulation of the coupling between the PBL and both the free atmosphere and cumulus convection. For this purpose a modified sigma-coordinate is introduced in which the PBL top and the lower boundary are both coordinate surfaces. The use of a bulk PBL formulation with this coordinate is extensively discussed. Results are presented from a July simulation produced by the UCLA GCM. PBL-related variables are shown, to illustrate the various regimes the parameterization is capable of simulating.

Two-way against one-way nesting for climate downscaling in Europe and the Mediterranean region using LMDZ4

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Shan; Li, Laurent; Le Treut, Hervé

2016-04-01

In the 21st century, the estimated surface temperature warming projected by General Circulation Models (GCMs) is between 0.3 and 4.8 °C, depending on the scenario considered. GCMs exhibit a good representation of climate on a global scale, but they are not able to reproduce regional climate processes with the same level of accuracy. Society and policymakers need model projections to define climate change adaptation and mitigation policies on a global, regional and local scale. Climate downscaling is mostly conducted with a regional model nested into the outputs of a global model. This one-way nesting approach is generally used in the climate community without feedbacks from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to GCMs. This lack of interaction between the two models may affect regional modes of variability, in particular those with a boundary conflict. The objective of this study is to evaluate a two-way nesting configuration that makes an interactive coupling between the RCM and the GCM, an approach against the traditional configuration of one-way nesting system. An additional aim of this work is to examine if the two-way nesting system can improve the RCM performance. The atmospheric component of the IPSL integrated climate model (LMDZ) is configured at both regional (LMDZ-regional) and global (LMDZ-global) scales. The two models have the same configuration for the dynamical framework and the physical forcings. The climatology values of sea surface temperature (SST) are prescribed for the two models. The stretched-grid of LMDZ-global is applied to a region defined by Europe, the Mediterranean, North Africa and Western North Atlantic. To ensure a good statistical significance of results, all simulations last at least 80 years. The nesting process of models is performed by a relaxation procedure of a time scale of 90 minutes. In the case of two-way nesting, the exchange between the two models is every two hours. The relaxation procedure induces a boundary conflict, particularly in the eastern boundary for temperature and geopotential height. A correlation analysis on the synoptic scale evaluates the relationship between the GCM and the RCM. The beginning of the simulations shows a great consistency of the two models. When dominant dynamics apply, RCM inherits most of the GCM signal with a consistent spatial structure. On the contrary, when the atmospheric circulation is weak, there are not that many effects transferred from the GCM to the RCM. When the RCM has its own dynamics, the boundary conflict is more pronounced. Winter season is chosen for the two-way nesting test due to the predominant role of the atmospheric dynamics in winter. The new approach of a two-way nesting system reduces boundary bias, having a influence in some cases in climate model projections. The effect of two-way nesting is enhanced when using a finer grid.

Intercomparison of hydrologic processes in global climate models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, W. K.-M.; Sud, Y. C.; Kim, J.-H.

1995-01-01

In this report, we address the intercomparison of precipitation (P), evaporation (E), and surface hydrologic forcing (P-E) for 23 Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) general circulation models (GCM's) including relevant observations, over a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The intercomparison includes global and hemispheric means, latitudinal profiles, selected area means for the tropics and extratropics, ocean and land, respectively. In addition, we have computed anomaly pattern correlations among models and observations for different seasons, harmonic analysis for annual and semiannual cycles, and rain-rate frequency distribution. We also compare the joint influence of temperature and precipitation on local climate using the Koeppen climate classification scheme.

New observations of molecular nitrogen in the Martian upper atmosphere by IUVS on MAVEN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, M. H.; Evans, J. S.; Schneider, N. M.; Stewart, A. I. F.; Deighan, J.; Jain, S. K.; Crismani, M.; Stiepen, A.; Chaffin, M. S.; McClintock, W. E.; Holsclaw, G. M.; Lefèvre, F.; Lo, D. Y.; Clarke, J. T.; Montmessin, F.; Bougher, S. W.; Jakosky, B. M.

2015-11-01

We identify molecular nitrogen (N2) emissions in the Martian upper atmosphere using the Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph (IUVS) on NASA's Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission. We report the first observations of the N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) bands at Mars and confirm the tentative identification of the N2 Vegard-Kaplan (VK) bands. We retrieve N2 density profiles from the VK limb emissions and compare calculated limb radiances between 90 and 210 km against both observations and predictions from a Mars general circulation model (GCM). Contrary to earlier analyses using other satellite data, we find that N2 abundances exceed GCM results by about a factor of 2 at 130 km but are in agreement at 150 km. The analysis and interpretation are enabled by a linear regression method used to extract components of UV spectra from IUVS limb observations.

A Comprehensive Analysis of Clouds, Radiation, and Precipitation in the North Pacific ITCZ in the NASA GISS ModelE GCM and Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanfield, Ryan Evan

Global circulation/climate models (GCMs) remain as an invaluable tool to predict future potential climate change. To best advise policy makers, assessing and increasing the accuracy of climate models is paramount. The treatment of clouds, radiation and precipitation in climate models and their associated feedbacks have long been one of the largest sources of uncertainty in predicting any potential future climate changes. Three versions of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM (the frozen CMIP5 version [C5], a post-CMIP5 version with modifications to cumulus and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations [P5], and the most recent version of the GCM which builds on the post-CMIP5 version with further modifications to convective cloud ice and cold pool parameterizations [E5]) have been compared with various satellite observations to analyze how recent modifications to the GCM has impacted cloud, radiation, and precipitation properties. In addition to global comparisons, two areas are showcased in regional analyses: the Eastern Pacific Northern ITCZ (EP-ITCZ), and Indonesia and the Western Pacific (INDO-WP). Changes to the cumulus and boundary layer turbulence parameterizations in the P5 version of the GCM have improved cloud and radiation estimations in areas of descending motion, such as the Southern Mid-Latitudes. Ice particle size and fall speed modifications in the E5 version of the GCM have decreased ice cloud water contents and cloud fractions globally while increasing precipitable water vapor in the model. Comparisons of IWC profiles show that the GCM simulated IWCs increase with height and peak in the upper portions of the atmosphere, while 2C-ICE observations peak in the lower levels of the atmosphere and decrease with height, effectively opposite of each other. Profiles of CF peak at lower heights in the E5 simulation, which will potentially increase outgoing longwave radiation due to higher cloud top temperatures, which will counterbalance the decrease in reflected shortwave associated with lower CFs and the thinner optical depths associated with decreased IWC and LWC in the E5 simulation. Vertical motion within the newest E5 simulation is greatly weakened over the EP-ITCZ region, potentially due to atmospheric loading from enhanced ice particle fall speeds. Comparatively, E5 simulated upward motion in the INDO-WP is stronger than its predecessors. Changes in the E5 simulation have resulted in stronger/weaker upward motion over the ocean/land in the INDO-WP region in comparison with both the C5 and P5 predecessors. Multimodel precipitation analysis shows that most of the GCMs tend to produce a wider ITCZ with stronger precipitation compared to GPCP and TRMM precipitation products. E5-simulated precipitation decreases and shifts Southward over the Easter Pacific ITCZ, which warrants further investigation into meridional heat transport and radiation fields.

Statistical downscaling of general-circulation-model- simulated average monthly air temperature to the beginning of flowering of the dandelion (Taraxacum officinale) in Slovenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bergant, Klemen; Kajfež-Bogataj, Lučka; Črepinšek, Zalika

2002-02-01

Phenological observations are a valuable source of information for investigating the relationship between climate variation and plant development. Potential climate change in the future will shift the occurrence of phenological phases. Information about future climate conditions is needed in order to estimate this shift. General circulation models (GCM) provide the best information about future climate change. They are able to simulate reliably the most important mean features on a large scale, but they fail on a regional scale because of their low spatial resolution. A common approach to bridging the scale gap is statistical downscaling, which was used to relate the beginning of flowering of Taraxacum officinale in Slovenia with the monthly mean near-surface air temperature for January, February and March in Central Europe. Statistical models were developed and tested with NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis predictor data and EARS predictand data for the period 1960-1999. Prior to developing statistical models, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was employed on the predictor data. Multiple linear regression was used to relate the beginning of flowering with expansion coefficients of the first three EOF for the Janauary, Febrauary and March air temperatures, and a strong correlation was found between them. Developed statistical models were employed on the results of two GCM (HadCM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3) to estimate the potential shifts in the beginning of flowering for the periods 1990-2019 and 2020-2049 in comparison with the period 1960-1989. The HadCM3 model predicts, on average, 4 days earlier occurrence and ECHAM4/OPYC3 5 days earlier occurrence of flowering in the period 1990-2019. The analogous results for the period 2020-2049 are a 10- and 11-day earlier occurrence.

The role of global cloud climatologies in validating numerical models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

HARSHVARDHAN

1993-01-01

The purpose of this work is to estimate sampling errors of area-time averaged rain rate due to temporal samplings by satellites. In particular, the sampling errors of the proposed low inclination orbit satellite of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) (35 deg inclination and 350 km altitude), one of the sun synchronous polar orbiting satellites of NOAA series (98.89 deg inclination and 833 km altitude), and two simultaneous sun synchronous polar orbiting satellites--assumed to carry a perfect passive microwave sensor for direct rainfall measurements--will be estimated. This estimate is done by performing a study of the satellite orbits and the autocovariance function of the area-averaged rain rate time series. A model based on an exponential fit of the autocovariance function is used for actual calculations. Varying visiting intervals and total coverage of averaging area on each visit by the satellites are taken into account in the model. The data are generated by a General Circulation Model (GCM). The model has a diurnal cycle and parameterized convective processes. A special run of the GCM was made at NASA/GSFC in which the rainfall and precipitable water fields were retained globally for every hour of the run for the whole year.

Intraannual variability of tides in the thermosphere from model simulations and in situ satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Häusler, K.; Hagan, M. E.; Forbes, J. M.; Zhang, X.; Doornbos, E.; Bruinsma, S.; Lu, G.

2015-01-01

In this paper, we provide insights into limitations imposed by current satellite-based strategies to delineate tidal variability in the thermosphere, as well as the ability of a state-of-the-art model to replicate thermospheric tidal determinations. Toward this end, we conducted a year-long thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulation for 2009, which is characterized by low solar and geomagnetic activity. In order to account for tropospheric waves and tides propagating upward into the ˜30-400 km model domain, we used 3-hourly MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application) reanalysis data. We focus on exospheric tidal temperatures, which are also compared with 72 day mean determinations from combined Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite observations to assess the model's capability to capture the observed tidal signatures and to quantify the uncertainties associated with the satellite exospheric temperature determination technique. We found strong day-to-day tidal variability in TIME-GCM that is smoothed out when averaged over as few as ten days. TIME-GCM notably overestimates the 72 day mean eastward propagating tides observed by CHAMP/GRACE, while capturing many of the salient features of other tidal components. However, the CHAMP/GRACE tidal determination technique only provides a gross climatological representation, underestimates the majority of the tidal components in the climatological spectrum, and moreover fails to characterize the extreme variability that drives the dynamics and electrodynamics of the ionosphere-thermosphere system. A multisatellite mission that samples at least six local times simultaneously is needed to provide this quantification.

Large-scale drivers of local precipitation extremes in convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Steven C.; Kendon, Elizabeth J.; Roberts, Nigel M.; Fowler, Hayley J.; Blenkinsop, Stephen

2016-04-01

The Met Office 1.5-km UKV convective-permitting models (CPM) is used to downscale present-climate and RCP8.5 60-km HadGEM3 GCM simulations. Extreme UK hourly precipitation intensities increase with local near-surface temperatures and humidity; for temperature, the simulated increase rate for the present-climate simulation is about 6.5% K**-1, which is consistent with observations and theoretical expectations. While extreme intensities are higher in the RCP8.5 simulation as higher temperatures are sampled, there is a decline at the highest temperatures due to circulation and relative humidity changes. Extending the analysis to the broader synoptic scale, it is found that circulation patterns, as diagnosed by MSLP or circulation type, play an increased role in the probability of extreme precipitation in the RCP8.5 simulation. Nevertheless for both CPM simulations, vertical instability is the principal driver for extreme precipitation.

Bias correction method for climate change impact assessment at a basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyunt, C.; Jaranilla-sanchez, P. A.; Yamamoto, A.; Nemoto, T.; Kitsuregawa, M.; Koike, T.

2012-12-01

Climate change impact studies are mainly based on the general circulation models GCM and these studies play an important role to define suitable adaptation strategies for resilient environment in a basin scale management. For this purpose, this study summarized how to select appropriate GCM to decrease the certain uncertainty amount in analysis. This was applied to the Pampanga, Angat and Kaliwa rivers in Luzon Island, the main island of Philippine and these three river basins play important roles in irrigation water supply, municipal water source for Metro Manila. According to the GCM scores of both seasonal evolution of Asia summer monsoon and spatial correlation and root mean squared error of atmospheric variables over the region, finally six GCM is chosen. Next, we develop a complete, efficient and comprehensive statistical bias correction scheme covering extremes events, normal rainfall and frequency of dry period. Due to the coarse resolution and parameterization scheme of GCM, extreme rainfall underestimation, too many rain days with low intensity and poor representation of local seasonality have been known as bias of GCM. Extreme rainfall has unusual characteristics and it should be focused specifically. Estimated maximum extreme rainfall is crucial for planning and design of infrastructures in river basin. Developing countries have limited technical, financial and management resources for implementing adaptation measures and they need detailed information of drought and flood for near future. Traditionally, the analysis of extreme has been examined using annual maximum series (AMS) adjusted to a Gumbel or Lognormal distribution. The drawback is the loss of the second, third etc, largest rainfall. Another approach is partial duration series (PDS) constructed using the values above a selected threshold and permit more than one event per year. The generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) has been used to model PDS and it is the series of excess over a threshold. In this study, the lowest value of AMS of observed is selected as threshold and simultaneously same frequency is considered as extremes in corresponding GCM gridded series. After fitting to GP distribution, bias corrected GCM extreme is found by using the inverse function of observed extremes. The results show it can remove bias effectively. For projected climate, the same transfer function between historical observed and GCM was applied. Moreover, frequency analysis of maximum extreme intensity estimation was done for validation and then approximate for near future by using identical function as past. To fix the error in the number of no rain days of GCM, ranking order statistics is used and define in GCM same as the frequency of wet days in observed station. After this rank, GCM output will be zero and identify same threshold for future projection. Normal rainfall is classified as between threshold of extreme and no rain day. We assume monthly normal rainfall follow gamma distribution. Then, we mapped the CDF of GCM normal rainfall to station's one in each month and bias corrected rainfall is available. In summary, bias of GCM have been addressed efficiently and validated at point scale by seasonal climatology and at all stations for evaluating downscaled rainfall performance. The results show bias corrected and downscaled scheme is good enough for climate impact study.

Quantifying Precipitation Variability and Relative Erosion Rates on Titan Using a GCM and Implications for Observed Geomorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, S.; Moon, S.; Mitchell, J.; Lora, J. M.

2016-12-01

Titan's zonal-mean precipitation behavior has been widely investigated using general circulation models (GCMs), but the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall in Titan's active hydrologic cycle is less well understood. We conduct statistical analyses of rainfall, diagnosed from GCM simulations of Titan's atmosphere, to determine storm intensity and frequency. Intense storms of methane have been proposed to be critical for enabling mechanical erosion of Titan's surface, as indicated by extensive observations of dendritic valley networks. Using precipitation outputs from the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), a GCM shown to realistically simulate many features of Titan's atmosphere, we quantify the precipitation variability and resulting relative erosion rates within eight separate latitude bins for a variety of initial surface liquid distributions. We find that while the overall wettest regions are indeed the poles, the most intense rainfall generally occurs in the high mid-latitudes, between 45-67.5 degrees, consistent with recent geomorphological observations of alluvial fans concentrated at those latitudes. We also find that precipitation rates necessary for surface erosion, as estimated by Perron et al. (2006) J. Geophys. Res. 111, E11001, frequently occur at all latitudes, with recurrence intervals of less than one Titan year. Such analysis is crucial towards understanding the complex interaction between Titan's atmosphere and surface and defining the influence of precipitation on observed geomorphology.

Mapping the Martian Meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allison, Michael; Ross, J. D.; Soloman, N.

1999-01-01

The Mars-adapted version of the NASA/GISS general circulation model (GCM) has been applied to the hourly/daily simulation of the planet's meteorology over several seasonal orbits. The current running version of the model includes a diurnal solar cycle, CO2 sublimation, and a mature parameterization of upper level wave drag with a vertical domain extending from the surface up to the 6 micro b level. The benchmark simulations provide a four-dimensional archive for the comparative evaluation of various schemes for the retrieval of winds from anticipated polar orbiter measurements of temperatures by the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer.

On the Origins of Mars' Exospheric Nonthermal Oxygen Component as Observed by MAVEN and Modeled by HELIOSARES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leblanc, F.; Chaufray, J. Y.; Modolo, R.; Leclercq, L.; Curry, S.; Luhmann, J.; Lillis, R.; Hara, T.; McFadden, J.; Halekas, J.; Schneider, N.; Deighan, J.; Mahaffy, P. R.; Benna, M.; Johnson, R. E.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Forget, F.; Lopez-Valverde, M. A.; Eparvier, F. G.; Jakosky, B.

2017-12-01

The first measurements of the emission brightness of the oxygen atomic exosphere by Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission have clearly shown that it is composed of a thermal component produced by the extension of the upper atmosphere and of a nonthermal component. Modeling these measurements allows us to constrain the origins of the exospheric O and, as a consequence, to estimate Mars' present oxygen escape rate. We here propose an analysis of three periods of MAVEN observations based on a set of three coupled models: a hybrid magnetospheric model (LATmos HYbrid Simulation (LatHyS)), an Exospheric General Model (EGM), and the Global Martian Circulation model of the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD-GCM), which provide a description of Mars' environment from the surface up to the solar wind. The simulated magnetosphere by LatHyS is in good agreement with MAVEN Plasma and Field Package instruments data. The LMD-GCM modeled upper atmospheric profiles for the main neutral and ion species are compared to Neutral Gas and Ion Mass Spectrometer/MAVEN data showing that the LMD-GCM can provide a satisfactory global view of Mars' upper atmosphere. Finally, we were able to reconstruct the expected emission brightness intensity from the oxygen exosphere using EGM. The good agreement with the averaged measured profiles by Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph during these three periods suggests that Mars' exospheric nonthermal component can be fully explained by the reactions of dissociative recombination of the O2+ ion in Mars' ionosphere, limiting significantly our ability to extract information from MAVEN observations of the O exosphere on other nonthermal processes, such as sputtering.

Wind speed reductions by large-scale wind turbine deployments lower turbine efficiencies and set low generation limits.

PubMed

Miller, Lee M; Kleidon, Axel

2016-11-29

Wind turbines generate electricity by removing kinetic energy from the atmosphere. Large numbers of wind turbines are likely to reduce wind speeds, which lowers estimates of electricity generation from what would be presumed from unaffected conditions. Here, we test how well wind power limits that account for this effect can be estimated without explicitly simulating atmospheric dynamics. We first use simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) that explicitly simulates the effects of wind turbines to derive wind power limits (GCM estimate), and compare them to a simple approach derived from the climatological conditions without turbines [vertical kinetic energy (VKE) estimate]. On land, we find strong agreement between the VKE and GCM estimates with respect to electricity generation rates (0.32 and 0.37 W e m -2 ) and wind speed reductions by 42 and 44%. Over ocean, the GCM estimate is about twice the VKE estimate (0.59 and 0.29 W e m -2 ) and yet with comparable wind speed reductions (50 and 42%). We then show that this bias can be corrected by modifying the downward momentum flux to the surface. Thus, large-scale limits to wind power use can be derived from climatological conditions without explicitly simulating atmospheric dynamics. Consistent with the GCM simulations, the approach estimates that only comparatively few land areas are suitable to generate more than 1 W e m -2 of electricity and that larger deployment scales are likely to reduce the expected electricity generation rate of each turbine. We conclude that these atmospheric effects are relevant for planning the future expansion of wind power.

Wind speed reductions by large-scale wind turbine deployments lower turbine efficiencies and set low generation limits

PubMed Central

Miller, Lee M.; Kleidon, Axel

2016-01-01

Wind turbines generate electricity by removing kinetic energy from the atmosphere. Large numbers of wind turbines are likely to reduce wind speeds, which lowers estimates of electricity generation from what would be presumed from unaffected conditions. Here, we test how well wind power limits that account for this effect can be estimated without explicitly simulating atmospheric dynamics. We first use simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) that explicitly simulates the effects of wind turbines to derive wind power limits (GCM estimate), and compare them to a simple approach derived from the climatological conditions without turbines [vertical kinetic energy (VKE) estimate]. On land, we find strong agreement between the VKE and GCM estimates with respect to electricity generation rates (0.32 and 0.37 We m−2) and wind speed reductions by 42 and 44%. Over ocean, the GCM estimate is about twice the VKE estimate (0.59 and 0.29 We m−2) and yet with comparable wind speed reductions (50 and 42%). We then show that this bias can be corrected by modifying the downward momentum flux to the surface. Thus, large-scale limits to wind power use can be derived from climatological conditions without explicitly simulating atmospheric dynamics. Consistent with the GCM simulations, the approach estimates that only comparatively few land areas are suitable to generate more than 1 We m−2 of electricity and that larger deployment scales are likely to reduce the expected electricity generation rate of each turbine. We conclude that these atmospheric effects are relevant for planning the future expansion of wind power. PMID:27849587

Sensitivity of ground - water recharge estimates to climate variability and change, Columbia Plateau, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vaccaro, John J.

1992-01-01

The sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates was investigated for the semiarid Ellensburg basin, located on the Columbia Plateau, Washington, to historic and projected climatic regimes. Recharge was estimated for predevelopment and current (1980s) land use conditions using a daily energy-soil-water balance model. A synthetic daily weather generator was used to simulate lengthy sequences with parameters estimated from subsets of the historical record that were unusually wet and unusually dry. Comparison of recharge estimates corresponding to relatively wet and dry periods showed that recharge for predevelopment land use varies considerably within the range of climatic conditions observed in the 87-year historical observation period. Recharge variations for present land use conditions were less sensitive to the same range of historical climatic conditions because of irrigation. The estimated recharge based on the 87-year historical climatology was compared with adjustments to the historical precipitation and temperature records for the same record to reflect CO2-doubling climates as projected by general circulation models (GCMs). Two GCM scenarios were considered: an average of conditions for three different GCMs with CO2 doubling, and a most severe “maximum” case. For the average GCM scenario, predevelopment recharge increased, and current recharge decreased. Also considered was the sensitivity of recharge to the variability of climate within the historical and adjusted historical records. Predevelopment and current recharge were less and more sensitive, respectively, to the climate variability for the average GCM scenario as compared to the variability within the historical record. For the maximum GCM scenario, recharge for both predevelopment and current land use decreased, and the sensitivity to the CO2-related climate change was larger than sensitivity to the variability in the historical and adjusted historical climate records.

Assessment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Caporali, E.

2013-04-01

This study extends a stochastic downscaling methodology to generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that express possible future climate conditions at a point-scale. The stochastic downscaling uses general circulation model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). Marginal distributions of factors of change are computed for several climate statistics using a Bayesian methodology that can weight GCM realizations based on the model relative performance with respect to a historical climate and a degree of disagreement in projecting future conditions. A Monte Carlo technique is used to sample the factors of change from their respective marginal distributions. As a comparison with traditional approaches, factors of change are also estimated by averaging GCM realizations. With either approach, the derived factors of change are applied to the climate statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. In this study, the time series are generated in an ensemble mode to fully reflect the uncertainty of GCM projections, climate stochasticity, as well as uncertainties of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology in reproducing future climate conditions for the periods of 2000-2009, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, using the period of 1962-1992 as the historical baseline are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The inferences of the methodology for the period of 2000-2009 are tested against observations to assess reliability of the stochastic downscaling procedure in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

Bias-correction and Spatial Disaggregation for Climate Change Impact Assessments at a basin scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyunt, Cho; Koike, Toshio; Yamamoto, Akio; Nemoto, Toshihoro; Kitsuregawa, Masaru

2013-04-01

Basin-scale climate change impact studies mainly rely on general circulation models (GCMs) comprising the related emission scenarios. Realistic and reliable data from GCM is crucial for national scale or basin scale impact and vulnerability assessments to build safety society under climate change. However, GCM fail to simulate regional climate features due to the imprecise parameterization schemes in atmospheric physics and coarse resolution scale. This study describes how to exclude some unsatisfactory GCMs with respect to focused basin, how to minimize the biases of GCM precipitation through statistical bias correction and how to cover spatial disaggregation scheme, a kind of downscaling, within in a basin. GCMs rejection is based on the regional climate features of seasonal evolution as a bench mark and mainly depends on spatial correlation and root mean square error of precipitation and atmospheric variables over the target region. Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and Japanese 25-uear Reanalysis Project (JRA-25) are specified as references in figuring spatial pattern and error of GCM. Statistical bias-correction scheme comprises improvements of three main flaws of GCM precipitation such as low intensity drizzled rain days with no dry day, underestimation of heavy rainfall and inter-annual variability of local climate. Biases of heavy rainfall are conducted by generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitting over a peak over threshold series. Frequency of rain day error is fixed by rank order statistics and seasonal variation problem is solved by using a gamma distribution fitting in each month against insi-tu stations vs. corresponding GCM grids. By implementing the proposed bias-correction technique to all insi-tu stations and their respective GCM grid, an easy and effective downscaling process for impact studies at the basin scale is accomplished. The proposed method have been examined its applicability to some of the basins in various climate regions all over the world. The biases are controlled very well by using this scheme in all applied basins. After that, bias-corrected and downscaled GCM precipitation are ready to use for simulating the Water and Energy Budget based Distributed Hydrological Model (WEB-DHM) to analyse the stream flow change or water availability of a target basin under the climate change in near future. Furthermore, it can be investigated any inter-disciplinary studies such as drought, flood, food, health and so on.In summary, an effective and comprehensive statistical bias-correction method was established to fulfil the generative applicability of GCM scale to basin scale without difficulty. This gap filling also promotes the sound decision of river management in the basin with more reliable information to build the resilience society.

The influence of thermal inertia on Mars' seasonal pressure variation and the effect of the weather component

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wood, S. E.; Paige, D. A.

1993-01-01

Using a Leighton-Murray type diurnal and seasonal Mars thermal model, we found that it is possible to reproduce the seasonal variation in daily-averaged pressures (approximately 680-890 Pa) measured by Viking Lander 1 (VL1), during years without global dust storms, with a standard deviation of less than 5 Pa. In this simple model, surface CO2, frost condensation, and sublimation rates at each latitude are determined by the net effects of radiation, latent heat, and heat conduction in subsurface soil layers. An inherent assumption of our model is that the seasonal pressure variation is due entirely to the exchange of mass between the atmosphere and polar caps. However, the results of recent Mars GCM modeling have made it clear that there is a significant dynamical contribution to the seasonal pressure variation. This 'weather' component is primarily due to large-scale changes in atmospheric circulation, and its magnitude depends somewhat on the dust content of the atmosphere. The overall form of the theoretical weather component at the location of VL1, as calculated by the AMES GCM, remains the same over the typical range of Mars dust opacities.

The impact of climatological model biases in the North Atlantic jet on predicted future circulation change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, I.

2015-12-01

A long standing bias among global climate models (GCMs) is their incorrect representation of the wintertime circulation of the North Atlantic region. Specifically models tend to exhibit a North Atlantic jet (and associated storm track) that is too zonal, extending across central Europe, when it should tilt northward toward Scandinavia. GCM's consistently predict substantial changes in the large scale circulation in this region, consisting of a localized anti-cyclonic circulation, centered over the Mediterranean and accompanied by increased aridity there and increased storminess over Northern Europe.Here, we present preliminary results from experiments that are designed to address the question of what the impact of the climatological circulation biases might be on this predicted future response. Climate change experiments will be compared in two versions of the Community Earth System Model: the first is a free running version of the model, as typically used in climate prediction; the second is a bias corrected version of the model in which a seasonally varying cycle of bias correction tendencies are applied to the wind and temperature fields. These bias correction tendencies are designed to account for deficiencies in the fast parameterized processes, with an aim to push the model toward a more realistic climatology.While these experiments come with the caveat that they assume the bias correction tendencies will remain constant with time, they allow for an initial assessment, through controlled experiments, of the impact that biases in the climatological circulation can have on future predictions in this region. They will also motivate future work that can make use of the bias correction tendencies to understand the underlying physical processes responsible for the incorrect tilt of the jet.

Parameterized Radiative Convective Equilibrium Across a Range of Domains: A Unifying Tool for General Circulation Models and High Resolution Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silvers, L. G.; Stevens, B. B.; Mauritsen, T.; Marco, G. A.

2015-12-01

The characteristics of clouds in General Circulation Models (GCMs) need to be constrained in a consistent manner with theory, observations, and high resolution models (HRMs). One way forward is to base improvements of parameterizations on high resolution studies which resolve more of the important dynamical motions and allow for less parameterizations. This is difficult because of the numerous differences between GCMs and HRMs, both technical and theoretical. Century long simulations at resolutions of 20-250 km on a global domain are typical of GCMs while HRMs often simulate hours at resolutions of 0.1km-5km on domains the size of a single GCM grid cell. The recently developed mode ICON provides a flexible framework which allows many of these difficulties to be overcome. This study uses the ICON model to compute SST perturbation simulations on multiple domains in a state of Radiative Convective Equilibrium (RCE) with parameterized convection. The domains used range from roughly the size of Texas to nearly half of Earth's surface area. All simulations use a doubly periodic domain with an effective distance between cell centers of 13 km and are integrated to a state of statistical stationarity. The primary analysis examines the mean characteristics of the cloud related fields and the feedback parameter of the simulations. It is shown that the simulated atmosphere of a GCM in RCE is sufficiently similar across a range of domain sizes to justify the use of RCE to study both a GCM and a HRM on the same domain with the goal of improved constraints on the parameterized clouds. The simulated atmospheres are comparable to what could be expected at midday in a typical region of Earth's tropics under calm conditions. In particular, the differences between the domains are smaller than differences which result from choosing different physics schemes. Significant convective organization is present on all domain sizes with a relatively high subsidence fraction. Notwithstanding the overall qualitative similarities of the simulations, quantitative differences lead to a surprisingly large sensitivity of the feedback parameter. This range of the feedback parameter is more than a factor of two and is similar to the range of feedbacks which were obtained by the CMIP5 models.

Atlantic freshwater balance in the hysteresis of the meridional overturning circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregory, J. M.; Saenko, O. A.

2003-04-01

We have studied the hysteresis behaviour of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMO) in the UVic climate model, which comprises an ocean GCM coupled to an energy-moisture balance atmosphere model and a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model, all with a resolution of 3.6x1.8 degrees. As with some other models, we find that a slowly increasing freshwater flux applied to the north Atlantic causes the AMO to collapse rapidly when it passes a threshold, and that it returns equally quickly when the freshwater forcing falls below a negative freshwater flux threshold. During the collapse, the Atlantic becomes less saline because of the import of about 80 Sv yr of freshwater by the ocean across 30S; during the switch-on this freshwater is exported again. These abrupt import and export of freshwater at 30S of the Atlantic are associated with, respectively, the appearance and disappearance of a shallower reverse overturning circulation south of the Equator. Qualitatively similar hysteresis behaviour, with the same salinity flip-flop, can be produced by an internal transfer of water within the Atlantic from low to high latitudes, with no net freshwater forcing input north of 30S.

OBLIMAP 2.0: a fast climate model-ice sheet model coupler including online embeddable mapping routines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reerink, Thomas J.; van de Berg, Willem Jan; van de Wal, Roderik S. W.

2016-11-01

This paper accompanies the second OBLIMAP open-source release. The package is developed to map climate fields between a general circulation model (GCM) and an ice sheet model (ISM) in both directions by using optimal aligned oblique projections, which minimize distortions. The curvature of the surfaces of the GCM and ISM grid differ, both grids may be irregularly spaced and the ratio of the grids is allowed to differ largely. OBLIMAP's stand-alone version is able to map data sets that differ in various aspects on the same ISM grid. Each grid may either coincide with the surface of a sphere, an ellipsoid or a flat plane, while the grid types might differ. Re-projection of, for example, ISM data sets is also facilitated. This is demonstrated by relevant applications concerning the major ice caps. As the stand-alone version also applies to the reverse mapping direction, it can be used as an offline coupler. Furthermore, OBLIMAP 2.0 is an embeddable GCM-ISM coupler, suited for high-frequency online coupled experiments. A new fast scan method is presented for structured grids as an alternative for the former time-consuming grid search strategy, realising a performance gain of several orders of magnitude and enabling the mapping of high-resolution data sets with a much larger number of grid nodes. Further, a highly flexible masked mapping option is added. The limitation of the fast scan method with respect to unstructured and adaptive grids is discussed together with a possible future parallel Message Passing Interface (MPI) implementation.

Impact of the ongoing Amazonian deforestation on local precipitation: A GCM simulation study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walker, G. K.; Sud, Y. C.; Atlas, R.

1995-01-01

Numerical simulation experiments were conducted to delineate the influence of in situ deforestation data on episodic rainfall by comparing two ensembles of five 5-day integrations performed with a recent version of the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres General Circulation Model (GCM) that has a simple biosphere model (SiB). The first set, called control cases, used the standard SiB vegetation cover (comprising 12 biomes) and assumed a fully forested Amazonia, while the second set, called deforestation cases, distinguished the partially deforested regions of Amazonia as savanna. Except for this difference, all other initial and prescribed boundary conditions were kept identical in both sets of integrations. The differential analyses of these five cases show the following local effects of deforestation. (1) A discernible decrease in evapotranspiration of about 0.80 mm/d (roughly 18%) that is quite robust in the averages for 1-, 2-, and 5-day forecasts. (2) A decrease in precipitation of about 1.18 mm/d (roughly 8%) that begins to emerge even in 1-2 day averages and exhibits complex evolution that extends downstream with the winds. (3) A significant decrease in the surface drag force (as a consequence of reduced surface roughness of deforested regions) that, in turn, affects the dynamical structure of moisture convergence and circulation. The surface winds increase significantly during the first day, and thereafter the increase is well maintained even in the 2- and 5-day averages.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" contained the following reports:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape; Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" included the following topics:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium - insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seftigen, Kristina; Goosse, Hugues; Klein, Francois; Chen, Deliang

2017-12-01

The integration of climate proxy information with general circulation model (GCM) results offers considerable potential for deriving greater understanding of the mechanisms underlying climate variability, as well as unique opportunities for out-of-sample evaluations of model performance. In this study, we combine insights from a new tree-ring hydroclimate reconstruction from Scandinavia with projections from a suite of forced transient simulations of the last millennium and historical intervals from the CMIP5 and PMIP3 archives. Model simulations and proxy reconstruction data are found to broadly agree on the modes of atmospheric variability that produce droughts-pluvials in the region. Despite these dynamical similarities, large differences between simulated and reconstructed hydroclimate time series remain. We find that the GCM-simulated multi-decadal and/or longer hydroclimate variability is systematically smaller than the proxy-based estimates, whereas the dominance of GCM-simulated high-frequency components of variability is not reflected in the proxy record. Furthermore, the paleoclimate evidence indicates in-phase coherencies between regional hydroclimate and temperature on decadal timescales, i.e., sustained wet periods have often been concurrent with warm periods and vice versa. The CMIP5-PMIP3 archive suggests, however, out-of-phase coherencies between the two variables in the last millennium. The lack of adequate understanding of mechanisms linking temperature and moisture supply on longer timescales has serious implications for attribution and prediction of regional hydroclimate changes. Our findings stress the need for further paleoclimate data-model intercomparison efforts to expand our understanding of the dynamics of hydroclimate variability and change, to enhance our ability to evaluate climate models, and to provide a more comprehensive view of future drought and pluvial risks.

Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction of Climate Model Outputs for Climate Change Impact Assessment in the U.S. Northeast

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahmed, Kazi Farzan; Wang, Guiling; Silander, John; Wilson, Adam M.; Allen, Jenica M.; Horton, Radley; Anyah, Richard

2013-01-01

Statistical downscaling can be used to efficiently downscale a large number of General Circulation Model (GCM) outputs to a fine temporal and spatial scale. To facilitate regional impact assessments, this study statistically downscales (to 1/8deg spatial resolution) and corrects the bias of daily maximum and minimum temperature and daily precipitation data from six GCMs and four Regional Climate Models (RCMs) for the northeast United States (US) using the Statistical Downscaling and Bias Correction (SDBC) approach. Based on these downscaled data from multiple models, five extreme indices were analyzed for the future climate to quantify future changes of climate extremes. For a subset of models and indices, results based on raw and bias corrected model outputs for the present-day climate were compared with observations, which demonstrated that bias correction is important not only for GCM outputs, but also for RCM outputs. For future climate, bias correction led to a higher level of agreements among the models in predicting the magnitude and capturing the spatial pattern of the extreme climate indices. We found that the incorporation of dynamical downscaling as an intermediate step does not lead to considerable differences in the results of statistical downscaling for the study domain.

The effects of atmospheric cloud radiative forcing on climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randall, David A.

1989-01-01

In order to isolate the effects of atmospheric cloud radiative forcing (ACRF) on climate, the general circulation of an ocean-covered earth called 'Seaworld' was simulated using the Colorado State University GCM. Most current climate models, however, do not include an interactive ocean. The key simplifications in 'Seaworld' are the fixed boundary temperature with no land points, the lack of mountains and the zonal uniformity of the boundary conditions. Two 90-day 'perpetual July' simulations were performed and analyzed the last sixty days of each. The first run included all the model's physical parameterizations, while the second omitted the effects of clouds in both the solar and terrestrial radiation parameterizations. Fixed and identical boundary temperatures were set for the two runs, and resulted in differences revealing the direct and indirect effects of the ACRF on the large-scale circulation and the parameterized hydrologic processes.

A Goddard Multi-Scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, W.K.; Anderson, D.; Atlas, R.; Chern, J.; Houser, P.; Hou, A.; Lang, S.; Lau, W.; Peters-Lidard, C.; Kakar, R.;

The Future of Planetary Climate Modeling and Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Del Genio, A. D.; Domagal-Goldman, S. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Kopparapu, R. K.; Schmidt, G. A.; Sohl, L. E.

2017-01-01

Modeling of planetary climate and weather has followed the development of tools for studying Earth, with lags of a few years. Early Earth climate studies were performed with 1-dimensionalradiative-convective models, which were soon fol-lowed by similar models for the climates of Mars and Venus and eventually by similar models for exoplan-ets. 3-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) became common in Earth science soon after and within several years were applied to the meteorology of Mars, but it was several decades before a GCM was used to simulate extrasolar planets. Recent trends in Earth weather and and climate modeling serve as a useful guide to how modeling of Solar System and exoplanet weather and climate will evolve in the coming decade.

GCM studies on Jovian polar dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabataba-Vakili, F.; Orton, G.; Li, C.; Young, R. M.; Read, P. L.; Ingersoll, A. P.

2017-12-01

The Juno spacecraft has produced unparalleled measurements of the polar regions of Jupiter. Observations from JunoCAM and JIRAM (Jupiter Infrared Auroral Mapper) have revealed a structure of cyclonic vortices near the poles. We report simulations of the observed polar dynamics using a hierarchy of models from shallow-water to general circulation models with increasing detail. An initialized, unforced shallow-water model of the polar region results in merging cyclones, producing a Saturn-like polar vortex. Further investigations with more detailed models aim to recreate the observed polar structures on Jupiter and investigate the difference between vortical structures on Saturn and Jupiter. Identifying this difference may shed light on the formation and maintenance mechanisms of the observed vortices.

Smagorinsky-type diffusion in a high-resolution GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaefer-Rolffs, Urs; Becker, Erich

2013-04-01

The parametrization of the (horizontal) momentum diffusion is a paramount component of a Global Circulation Model (GCM). Aside from friction in the boundary layer, a relevant fraction of kinetic energy is dissipated in the free atmosphere, and it is known that a linear harmonic turbulence model is not sufficient to obtain a reasonable simulation of the kinetic energy spectrum. Therefore, often empirical hyper-diffusion schemes are employed, regardless of disadvantages like the violation of energy conservation and the second law of thermodynamics. At IAP we have developed an improved parametrization of the horizontal diffusion that is based on Smagorinsky's nonlinear and energy conservation formulation. This approach is extended by the dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM) of M. Germano. In this new scheme, the mixing length is no longer a prescribed parameter but calculated dynamically from the resolved flow such as to preserve scale invariance for the horizontal energy cascade. The so-called Germano identity is solved by a tensor norm ansatz which yields a positive definite frictional heating. We present results from an investigation using the DSM as a parametrization of horizontal diffusion in a high-resolution version of the Kühlungborn Mechanistic general Circulation Model (KMCM) with spectral truncation at horizontal wavenumber 330. The DSM calculates the Smagorinsky parameter cS independent from the resolution scale. We find that this method yields an energy spectrum that exhibits a pronounced transition from a synoptic -3 to a mesoscale -5-3 slope at wavenumbers around 50. At the highest wavenumber end, a behaviour similar to that often obtained by tuning the hyper-diffusion is achieved self-consistently. This result is very sensitive to the explicit choice of the test filter in the DSM.

Understanding the past to interpret the future: Comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tillman, Fred D.; Gangopadhyay, Subhrendu; Pruitt, Tom

2017-01-01

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.

Modeling the Climatic Effect of Convergent Tectonics During the Middle to Late Miocene: Effective Closure of the Indonesian Seaway, Himalayan Uplift and the East Asian Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeConto, R. M.; MacConnell, A.; Leckie, R.

2001-05-01

During the middle to late Miocene, the northward drift of Australia and New Guinea progressively restricted Indonesian throughflow (ITF). Today, ITF plays an important role in modulating inter-basin fresh water flux, heat transport, and the volume of the Western Pacific Warm Pool (WPWP). Today's WPWP is a center for deep convection that contributes considerable diabatic heating to the tropical atmosphere, affecting both the Walker and Hadley circulation. The WPWP fuels the East Asian Monsoon with moisture and latent heat and is an important component of ENSO. As the Indonesian Seaway became restricted, India was impinging on Asia. Asian continentality was increased and Himalayan/Tibetan uplift begun affecting zonal atmospheric flow and land-surface albedo. In order to better understand the climate system's response to changing Miocene paleogeography (horizontal and vertical tectonics), we have begun a series of climate model experiments using atmosphere, ocean, and coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs). The GCM experiments are designed to isolate the possible response to effective Indonesian gateway closure within the framework of evolving Miocene Paleogeography between 11 and 7 Ma. In the first phase of our modeling study, an AGCM was used to test the sensitivity of tropical Indo-Pacific and Asian climate (including monsoonal intensity) to the presence of a WPWP in a pre and post Himalayan/Tibetan Plateau world. The results of the GCM simulations will be discussed in the context of the hypotheses that 1) a proto-WPWP became established as the Indonesian Seaway became increasingly restricted during the late middle to late Miocene; and 2) the growth of the WPWP had a first order affect on tropical Pacific climate and the East Asian monsoon.

New Observations of Molecular Nitrogen by the Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph on MAVEN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Michael H.; Evans, J. S.; Schneider, Nicholas M.; Stewart, A. I. F.; Deighan, Justin; Jain, Sonal K.; Crismani, Matteo M. J.; Stiepen, Arnaud; Chaffin, Michael S.; McClintock, William E.; Holsclaw, Greg M.; Lefevre, Franck; Montmessin, Franck; Lo, Daniel Y.; Clarke, John T.; Bougher, Stephen W.; Jakosky, Bruce M.

2015-11-01

The Martian ultraviolet dayglow provides information on the basic state of the Martian upper atmosphere. The Imaging Ultraviolet Spectrograph (IUVS) on NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission has observed Mars at mid and far-UV wavelengths since its arrival in September 2014. In this work, we describe a linear regression method used to extract components of UV spectra from IUVS limb observations and focus in particular on molecular nitrogen (N2) photoelectron excited emissions. We identify N2 Lyman-Birge-Hopfield (LBH) emissions for the first time at Mars and we also confirm the tentative identification of N2 Vegard-Kaplan (VK) emissions. We compare observed VK and LBH limb radiance profiles to model results between 90 and 210 km. Finally, we compare retrieved N2 density profiles to general circulation (GCM) model results. Contrary to earlier analyses using other satellite data that indicated N2 densities were a factor of three less than predictions, we find that N2 abundances exceed GCM results by about a factor of two at 130 km but are in agreement at 150 km.

Atmospheric Teleconnections From Cumulants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabou, F.; Kaspi, Y.; Marston, B.; Schneider, T.

2011-12-01

Multi-point cumulants of fields such as vorticity provide a way to visualize atmospheric teleconnections, complementing other approaches such as the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). We calculate equal-time two-point cumulants of the vorticity from NCEP reanalysis data during the period 1980 -- 2010 and from direct numerical simulation (DNS) using an idealized dry general circulation model (GCM) (Schneider and Walker, 2006). Extratropical correlations seen in the NCEP data are qualitatively reproduced by the model. Three- and four-point cumulants accumulated from DNS quantify departures of the probability distribution function from a normal distribution, shedding light on the efficacy of direct statistical simulation (DSS) of atmosphere dynamics by cumulant expansions (Marston, Conover, and Schneider, 2008; Marston 2011). Lagged-time two-point cumulants between temperature gradients and eddy kinetic energy (EKE), accumulated by DNS of an idealized moist aquaplanet GCM (O'Gorman and Schneider, 2008), reveal dynamics of storm tracks. Regions of enhanced baroclinicity (as found along the eastern boundary of continents) lead to a local enhancement of EKE and a suppression of EKE further downstream as the storm track self-destructs (Kaspi and Schneider, 2011).

Global Carbon Cycle Modeling in GISS ModelE2 GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleinov, I. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Romanou, A.; Romanski, J.

2014-12-01

Consistent and accurate modeling of the Global Carbon Cycle remains one of the main challenges for the Earth System Models. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE2 General Circulation Model (GCM) was recently equipped with a complete Global Carbon Cycle algorithm, consisting of three integrated components: Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM), Ocean Biogeochemistry Module and atmospheric CO2 tracer. Ent TBM provides CO2 fluxes from the land surface to the atmosphere. Its biophysics utilizes the well-known photosynthesis functions of Farqhuar, von Caemmerer, and Berry and Farqhuar and von Caemmerer, and stomatal conductance of Ball and Berry. Its phenology is based on temperature, drought, and radiation fluxes, and growth is controlled via allocation of carbon from labile carbohydrate reserve storage to different plant components. Soil biogeochemistry is based on the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford (CASA) model of Potter et al. Ocean biogeochemistry module (the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model, NOBM), computes prognostic distributions for biotic and abiotic fields that influence the air-sea flux of CO2 and the deep ocean carbon transport and storage. Atmospheric CO2 is advected with a quadratic upstream algorithm implemented in atmospheric part of ModelE2. Here we present the results for pre-industrial equilibrium and modern transient simulations and provide comparison to available observations. We also discuss the process of validation and tuning of particular algorithms used in the model.

Climatology and natural variability of the global hydrologic cycle in the GLA atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.-M.; Mehta, V. M.; Sud, Y. C.; Walker, G. K.

1994-01-01

Time average climatology and low-frequency variabilities of the global hydrologic cycle (GHC) in the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) general circulation model (GCM) were investigated in the present work. A 730-day experiment was conducted with the GLA GCM forced by insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow undergoing climatological annual cycles. Ifluences of interactive soil moisture on time average climatology and natural variability of the GHC were also investigated by conducting 365-day experiments with and without interactive soil moisture. Insolation, sea surface temperature, and ice-snow were fixed at their July levels in the latter two experiments. Results show that the model's time average hydrologic cycle variables for July in all three experiments agree reasonably well with observations. Except in the case of precipitable water, the zonal average climates of the annual cycle experiment and the two perpetual July experiments are alike, i.e., their differences are within limits of the natural variability of the model's climate. Statistics of various components of the GHC, i.e., water vapor, evaporation, and precipitation, are significantly affected by the presence of interactive soil moisture. A long-term trend is found in the principal empirical modes of variability of ground wetness, evaporation, and sensible heat. Dominant modes of variability of these quantities over land are physically consistent with one another and with land surface energy balance requirements. The dominant mode of precipitation variability is found to be closely related to organized convection over the tropical western Pacific Ocean. The precipitation variability has timescales in the range of 2 to 3 months and can be identified with the stationary component of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The precipitation mode is not sensitive to the presence of interactive soil moisture but is closely linked to both the rotational and divergent components of atmospheric moisture transport. The present results indicate that globally coherent natural variability of the GHC in the GLA GCM has two basic timescales in the absence of annual cycles of external forcings: a long-term trend associated with atmosphere-soil moisture interaction which affects the model atmosphere mostly over midlatitude continental regions and a large-scale 2- to 3-month variability associated with atmospheric moist processes over the western Pacific Ocean.

The annual pressure cycle on Mars: Results from the LMD Martian atmospheric general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hourdin, Frederic; Forget, Francois; Talagrand, O.

1993-01-01

We have been developing a General Circulation Model (GCM) of the martian atmosphere since 1989. The model has been described rather extensively elsewhere and only the main characteristics are given here. The dynamical part of the model, adapted from the LMD terrestrial climate model, is based on a finite-difference formulation of the classical 'primitive equations of meteorology.' The radiative transfer code includes absorption and emission by CO2 (carefully validated by comparison to line-by-line calculations) and dust in the thermal range and absorption and scattering by dust in the visible range. Other physical parameterizations are included: modeling of vertical turbulent mixing, dry convective adjustment (in order to prevent vertical unstable temperature profiles), and a multilayer model of the thermal conduction in the soil. Finally, the condensation-sublimation of CO2 is introduced through specification of a pressure-dependent condensation temperature. The atmospheric and surface temperatures are prevented from falling below this critical temperature by condensation and direct precipitation onto the surface of atmospheric CO2. The only prespecified spatial fields are the surface thermal inertia, albedo, and topography.

Evaluation of NASA GISS post-CMIP5 single column model simulated clouds and precipitation using ARM Southern Great Plains observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Dong, Xiquan; Kennedy, Aaron; Xi, Baike; Li, Zhanqing

2017-03-01

The planetary boundary layer turbulence and moist convection parameterizations have been modified recently in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Model E2 atmospheric general circulation model (GCM; post-CMIP5, hereafter P5). In this study, single column model (SCM P5) simulated cloud fractions (CFs), cloud liquid water paths (LWPs) and precipitation were compared with Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) groundbased observations made during the period 2002-08. CMIP5 SCM simulations and GCM outputs over the ARM SGP region were also used in the comparison to identify whether the causes of cloud and precipitation biases resulted from either the physical parameterization or the dynamic scheme. The comparison showed that the CMIP5 SCM has difficulties in simulating the vertical structure and seasonal variation of low-level clouds. The new scheme implemented in the turbulence parameterization led to significantly improved cloud simulations in P5. It was found that the SCM is sensitive to the relaxation time scale. When the relaxation time increased from 3 to 24 h, SCM P5-simulated CFs and LWPs showed a moderate increase (10%-20%) but precipitation increased significantly (56%), which agreed better with observations despite the less accurate atmospheric state. Annual averages among the GCM and SCM simulations were almost the same, but their respective seasonal variations were out of phase. This suggests that the same physical cloud parameterization can generate similar statistical results over a long time period, but different dynamics drive the differences in seasonal variations. This study can potentially provide guidance for the further development of the GISS model.

Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 ModelE simulated clouds and TOA radiation budgets using satellite observations over the southern mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanfield, Ryan Evan

Past, current, and future climates have been simulated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE Global Circulation Model (GCM) and summarized by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, AR4). New simulations from the updated CMIP5 version of the NASA GISS ModelE GCM were recently released to the public community during the summer of 2011 and will be included in the upcoming IPCC AR5 ensemble of simulations. Due to the recent nature of these simulations, they have not yet been extensively validated against observations. To assess the NASA GISS-E2-R GCM, model simulated clouds and cloud properties are compared to observational cloud properties derived from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project using MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data for the period of March 2000 through December 2005. Over the 6-year period, the global average modeled cloud fractions are within 1% of observations. However, further study however shows large regional biases between the GCM simulations and CERES-MODIS observations. The southern mid-latitudes (SML) were chosen as a focus region due to model errors across multiple GCMs within the recent phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Over the SML, the GISS GCM undersimulates total cloud fraction over 20%, but oversimulates total water path by 2 g m-2. Simulated vertical cloud distributions over the SML when compared to both CERES-MODIS and CloudSat/CALIPSO observations show a drastic undersimulation of low level clouds by the GISS GCM, but higher fractions of thicker clouds. To assess the impact of GISS simulated clouds on the TOA radiation budgets, the modeled TOA radiation budgets are compared to CERES EBAF observations. Because modeled low-level cloud fraction is much lower than observed over the SML, modeled reflected shortwave (SW) flux at the TOA is 13 W m -2 lower and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is 3 W m-2 higher than observations. Finally, cloud radiative effects (CRE) are calculated and compared with observations to fully assess the impact of clouds on the TOA radiation budgets. The difference in clear-sky reflected SW flux between model and observation is only +4 W m-2 while the SW CRE difference is up to 17 W m-2, indicating that most of the bias in SW CRE results from the all-sky bias between the model and observation. A sizeable negative bias of 10 W m-2 in simulated clear-sky OLR has been found due to a dry bias in calculating observed clear-sky OLR and lack of upper-level water vapor at the 100-mb level in the model. The dry bias impacts CRE LW, with the model undersimulating by 13 W m-2. The CRE NET difference is only 5 W m-2 due to the cancellation of SW and LW CRE biases.

A one-dimensional interactive soil-atmosphere model for testing formulations of surface hydrology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Eagleson, Peter S.

1990-01-01

A model representing a soil-atmosphere column in a GCM is developed for off-line testing of GCM soil hydrology parameterizations. Repeating three representative GCM sensitivity experiments with this one-dimensional model demonstrates that, to first order, the model reproduces a GCM's sensitivity to imposed changes in parameterization and therefore captures the essential physics of the GCM. The experiments also show that by allowing feedback between the soil and atmosphere, the model improves on off-line tests that rely on prescribed precipitation, radiation, and other surface forcing.

Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

2015-04-01

Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

Continental water recycling and H2(18)-O concentrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; De Valpine, D. Perry; Jouzel, Jean

1993-01-01

Using a General Circulation Model (GCM) fitted with tracer diagnostics, we examine how continental moisture recycling affects the stable water isotope content of precipitation, focusing on its contribution to the 'noise' in the well-established relationship between temperature and delta O-18. On a global basis, for temperatures between -30 and 15 C, continental recycling explains more than a third of the variability in annual delta O-18 that is not explained by temperature. Recycling appears almost as important as temperature in defining delta O-18 distributions during northern hemisphere summer.

Predicting category intuitiveness with the rational model, the simplicity model, and the generalized context model.

PubMed

Pothos, Emmanuel M; Bailey, Todd M

2009-07-01

Naïve observers typically perceive some groupings for a set of stimuli as more intuitive than others. The problem of predicting category intuitiveness has been historically considered the remit of models of unsupervised categorization. In contrast, this article develops a measure of category intuitiveness from one of the most widely supported models of supervised categorization, the generalized context model (GCM). Considering different category assignments for a set of instances, the authors asked how well the GCM can predict the classification of each instance on the basis of all the other instances. The category assignment that results in the smallest prediction error is interpreted as the most intuitive for the GCM-the authors refer to this way of applying the GCM as "unsupervised GCM." The authors systematically compared predictions of category intuitiveness from the unsupervised GCM and two models of unsupervised categorization: the simplicity model and the rational model. The unsupervised GCM compared favorably with the simplicity model and the rational model. This success of the unsupervised GCM illustrates that the distinction between supervised and unsupervised categorization may need to be reconsidered. However, no model emerged as clearly superior, indicating that there is more work to be done in understanding and modeling category intuitiveness.

Understanding tropical upper tropospheric warming: The role of SSTs, convective parameterizations, and observational uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Po-Chedley, S.; Thorsen, T. J.; Fu, Q.

2015-12-01

Recent research has compared CMIP5 general circulation model (GCM) simulations with satellite observations of warming in the tropical upper troposphere relative to the lower-middle troposphere. Although the pattern of SST warming is important, this research demonstrated that models overestimate increases in static stability between the mid- to upper- tropical troposphere, even when they are forced with historical sea surface temperatures. This discrepancy between satellite-borne microwave sounding unit measurements (MSU) and GCMs is important because it has implications for the strength of the lapse rate and water vapor feedback. The apparent model-observational difference for changes in static stability in the tropical upper troposphere represents an important problem, but it is not clear whether the difference is a result of common biases in GCMs, biases in observational datasets, or both. In this work, we will use GCM simulations to examine the importance of the spatial pattern of SST warming and different convective parameterizations in determining the lapse rate changes in tropical troposphere. We will also consider uncertainties in MSU satellite observations, including changes in the diurnal sampling of temperature and instrument calibration biases when comparing GCMs with the observed record.

Numerical simulation of the 6 day wave effects on the ionosphere: Dynamo modulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gan, Quan; Wang, Wenbing; Yue, Jia; Liu, Hanli; Chang, Loren C.; Zhang, Shaodong; Burns, Alan; Du, Jian

2016-10-01

The Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) is used to theoretically study the 6 day wave effects on the ionosphere. By introducing a 6 day perturbation with zonal wave number 1 at the model lower boundary, the TIME-GCM reasonably reproduces the 6 day wave in temperature and horizontal winds in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere region during the vernal equinox. The E region wind dynamo exhibits a prominent 6 day oscillation that is directly modulated by the 6 day wave. Meanwhile, significant local time variability (diurnal and semidiurnal) is also seen in wind dynamo as a result of altered tides due to the nonlinear interaction between the 6 day wave and migrating tides. More importantly, the perturbations in the E region neutral winds (both the 6 day oscillation and tidal-induced short-term variability) modulate the polarization electric fields, thus leading to the perturbations in vertical ion drifts and ionospheric F2 region peak electron density (NmF2). Our modeling work shows that the 6 day wave couples with the ionosphere via both the direct neutral wind modulation and the interaction with atmospheric tides.

Principles of an enhanced MBR-process with mechanical cleaning.

PubMed

Rosenberger, S; Helmus, F P; Krause, S; Bareth, A; Meyer-Blumenroth, U

2011-01-01

Up to date, different physical and chemical cleaning protocols are necessary to limit membrane fouling in membrane bioreactors. This paper deals with a mechanical cleaning process, which aims at the avoidance of hypochlorite and other critical chemicals in MBR with submerged flat sheet modules. The process basically consists of the addition of plastic particles into the loop circulation within submerged membrane modules. Investigations of two pilot plants are presented: Pilot plant 1 is equipped with a 10 m(2) membrane module and operated with a translucent model suspension; pilot plant 2 is equipped with four 50 m(2) membrane modules and operated with pretreated sewage. Results of pilot plant 1 show that the establishment of a fluidised bed with regular particle distribution is possible for a variety of particles. Particles with maximum densities of 1.05 g/cm(3) and between 3 and 5 mm diameter form a stable fluidised bed almost regardless of activated sludge concentration, viscosity and reactor geometry. Particles with densities between 1.05 g/cm(3) and 1.2 g/cm(3) form a stable fluidised bed, if the velocity at the reactor bottom is sufficiently high. Activities within pilot plant 2 focused on plant optimisation and the development of an adequate particle retention system.

Atlas of Seasonal Means Simulated by the NSIPP 1 Atmospheric GCM. Volume 17

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Bacmeister, Julio; Pegion, Philip J.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Busalacchi, Antonio J. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

This atlas documents the climate characteristics of version 1 of the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). The AGCM includes an interactive land model (the Mosaic scheme), and is part of the NSIPP coupled atmosphere-land-ocean model. The results presented here are based on a 20-year (December 1979-November 1999) "ANIIP-style" integration of the AGCM in which the monthly-mean sea-surface temperature and sea ice are specified from observations. The climate characteristics of the AGCM are compared with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) reanalyses. Other verification data include Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSNM) total precipitable water, the Xie-Arkin estimates of precipitation, and Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) measurements of short and long wave radiation. The atlas is organized by season. The basic quantities include seasonal mean global maps and zonal and vertical averages of circulation, variance/covariance statistics, and selected physics quantities.

Low-latitude Ionospheric Heating during Solar Flares

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klenzing, J.; Chamberlin, P. C.; Qian, L.; Haaser, R. A.; Burrell, A. G.; Earle, G. D.; Heelis, R. A.; Simoes, F. A.

2013-12-01

The advent of the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) represents a leap forward in our capability to measure rapidly changing transient events on the sun. SDO measurements are paired with the comprehensive low latitude measurements of the ionosphere and thermosphere provided by the Communication/Navigation Outage Forecast System (C/NOFS) satellite and state-of-the-art general circulation models to discuss the coupling between the terrestrial upper atmosphere and solar radiation. Here we discuss ionospheric heating as detected by the Coupled Ion-Neutral Dynamics Investigation (CINDI) instrument suite on the C/NOFS satellite during solar flares. Also discusses is the necessity of decoupling the heating due to increased EUV irradiance and that due to geomagnetic storms, which sometimes occur with flares. Increases in both the ion temperature and ion density in the subsolar topside ionosphere are detected within 77 minutes of the 23 Jan 2012 M-class flare, and the observed results are compared with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) using the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) as an input.

Characteristics of stratosphere-troposphere exchange in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mote, Philip W.; Holton, James R.; Boville, Byron A.

1994-01-01

In this study we examine mass exchange, water vapor exchange, and the behavior of idealized tracers and parcels to diagnose Stratosphere-Troposphere Exchange (STE) in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Model (GCM), the Community Climate Model (CCM2). The CCM2 correctly represents the seasonality of mass exchange across 100 hPa, but values are uniformly too strong. Water vapor, however, indicates that tropical STE is not well represented in the CCM2; even though mean tropopause temperatures are colder than observed, the lower stratosphere is too moist. Most net mass flux occurs at water vapor mixing ratios of about 4-5 parts per million by volume (ppmv), about 1 ppmv too moist. Vertical resolution has little impact on the nature of tropical STE. In midlatitudes, CCM2 more successfully represents STE, which occurs in developing baroclinic waves and stationary anticyclones. Exchange from troposphere to stratosphere does occur but only influences the lowest few kilometers of the extratropical stratosphere, even for tracers with large vertical gradients.

GCM simulations of Titan's middle and lower atmosphere and comparison to observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lora, Juan M.; Lunine, Jonathan I.; Russell, Joellen L.

2015-04-01

Simulation results are presented from a new general circulation model (GCM) of Titan, the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM), which couples the Flexible Modeling System (FMS) spectral dynamical core to a suite of external/sub-grid-scale physics. These include a new non-gray radiative transfer module that takes advantage of recent data from Cassini-Huygens, large-scale condensation and quasi-equilibrium moist convection schemes, a surface model with "bucket" hydrology, and boundary layer turbulent diffusion. The model produces a realistic temperature structure from the surface to the lower mesosphere, including a stratopause, as well as satisfactory superrotation. The latter is shown to depend on the dynamical core's ability to build up angular momentum from surface torques. Simulated latitudinal temperature contrasts are adequate, compared to observations, and polar temperature anomalies agree with observations. In the lower atmosphere, the insolation distribution is shown to strongly impact turbulent fluxes, and surface heating is maximum at mid-latitudes. Surface liquids are unstable at mid- and low-latitudes, and quickly migrate poleward. The simulated humidity profile and distribution of surface temperatures, compared to observations, corroborate the prevalence of dry conditions at low latitudes. Polar cloud activity is well represented, though the observed mid-latitude clouds remain somewhat puzzling, and some formation alternatives are suggested.

A 3D Global Climate Model of the Pluto atmosphere coupled to a volatile transport model to interpret New Horizons observations, including the N2, CH4 and CO cycles and the formation of organic hazes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Tanguy; Forget, Francois

2016-04-01

To interpret New Horizons observations and simulate the Pluto climate system, we have developed a Global Climate Model (GCM) of Pluto's atmosphere. In addition to a 3D "dynamical core" which solves the equation of meteorology, the model takes into account the N2 condensation and sublimation and its thermal and dynamical effects, the vertical turbulent mixing, the radiative transfer through methane and carbon monoxide, molecular thermal conduction, and a detailed surface thermal model with different thermal inertia for various timescales (diurnal, seasonal). The GCM also includes a detailed model of the CH4 and CO cycles, taking into account their transport by the atmospheric circulation and turbulence, as well as their condensation and sublimation on the surface and in the atmosphere, possibly forming methane ice clouds. The GCM consistently predicts the 3D methane abundance in the atmosphere, which is used as an input for our radiative transfer calculation. In a second phase, we also developed a volatile transport model, derived from the GCM, which can be run over thousands of years in order to reach consistent initial states for the GCM runs and better explore the seasonal processes on Pluto. Results obtained with the volatile transport model show that the distribution of N2, CH4 and CO ices primarily depends on the seasonal thermal inertia used for the different ices, and is affected by the assumed topography as well. As observed, it is possible to form a large and permanent nitrogen glacier with CO and CH4 ice deposits in an equatorial basin corresponding to Sputnik Planum, while having a surface pressure evolution consistent with stellar occultations and New Horizons data. In addition, most of the methane ice is sequestered with N2 ice in the basin but seasonal polar caps of CH4 frosts also form explaining the bright polar caps observed with Hubble in the 1980s and in line with New Horizons observations. Using such balanced combination of surface and subsurface conditions as initial conditions, we run the GCM from 1975 to 2015, so that the model become insensitive to the assumed atmospheric initial states (that are not constrained by the volatile transport model). The simulated thermal structure and waves can be compared to the New Horizons occultations measurements. As observed, the horizontal variability is very limited, for fundamental reasons. In addition, we have developed a 3D model of the formation of organic hazes within the GCM. It includes the different steps of aerosols formation as understood on Titan: photolysis of CH4 in the upper atmosphere by the Lyman-alpha radiation, production of various gaseous precursor species, conversion into solid particles through chemistry and aggregation processes, and gravitational sedimentation. Significant amount of haze particles are found to be present at all latitudes up to 100 km. However, if N2 ice is already condensing in the polar night, the majority of the haze particles tend to accumulate in the polar night because of the transport of the haze precursors and aerosols by the condensation flow.

Sensitivity of polar ozone recovery predictions of the GMI 3D CTM to GCM and DAS dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Considine, D.; Connell, P.; Strahan, S.; Douglass, A.; Rotman, D.

2003-04-01

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) 3-D chemistry and transport model has been used to generate 2 simulations of the 1995-2030 time period. The 36-year simulations both used the source gas and aerosol boundary conditions of the 2002 World Meteorological Organization assessment exercise MA2. The first simulation was based on a single year of meteorological data (winds, temperatures) generated by the new Goddard Space Flight Center "Finite Volume" General Circulation Model (FVGCM), repeated for each year of the simulation. The second simulation used a year of meteorological data generated by a new data assimilation system based on the FVGCM (FVDAS), using observations for July 1, 1999 - June 30, 2000. All other aspects of the two simulations were identical. The increase in vortex-averaged south polar springtime ozone concentrations in the lower stratosphere over the course of the simulations is more robust in the simulation driven by the GCM meteorological data than in the simulation driven by DAS winds. At the same time, the decrease in estimated chemical springtime ozone loss is similar. We thus attribute the differences between the two simulations to differences in the representations of polar dynamics which reduce the sensitivity of the simulation driven by DAS winds to changes in vortex chemistry. We also evaluate the representations in the two simulations of trace constituent distributions in the current polar lower stratosphere using various observations. In these comparisons the GCM-based simulation often is in better agreement with the observations than the DAS-based simulation.

Simulation of Anomalous Regional Climate Events with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.

1999-01-01

The stretched-grid approach provides an efficient down-scaling and consistent interactions between global and regional scales due to using one variable-resolution model for integrations. It is a workable alternative to the widely used nested-grid approach introduced over a decade ago as a pioneering step in regional climate modeling. A variable-resolution General Circulation Model (GCM) employing a stretched grid, with enhanced resolution over the US as the area of interest, is used for simulating two anomalous regional climate events, the US summer drought of 1988 and flood of 1993. The special mode of integration using a stretched-grid GCM and data assimilation system is developed that allows for imitating the nested-grid framework. The mode is useful for inter-comparison purposes and for underlining the differences between these two approaches. The 1988 and 1993 integrations are performed for the two month period starting from mid May. Regional resolutions used in most of the experiments is 60 km. The major goal and the result of the study is obtaining the efficient down-scaling over the area of interest. The monthly mean prognostic regional fields for the stretched-grid integrations are remarkably close to those of the verifying analyses. Simulated precipitation patterns are successfully verified against gauge precipitation observations. The impact of finer 40 km regional resolution is investigated for the 1993 integration and an example of recovering subregional precipitation is presented. The obtained results show that the global variable-resolution stretched-grid approach is a viable candidate for regional and subregional climate studies and applications.

Ionosphere variability at mid latitudes during sudden stratosphere warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.; Maute, A. I.; Maruyama, N.

2015-12-01

Variability of the mid latitude ionosphere and thermosphere during the 2009 and 2013 sudden stratosphere warmings (SSWs) is investigated in the present study using a combination of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations and model simulations. The simulations are performed using the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM) and Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE) model. Both the COSMIC observations and TIME-GCM simulations reveal perturbations in the F-region peak height (hmF2) at Southern Hemisphere mid latitudes during SSW time periods. The perturbations are ~20-30 km, which corresponds to 10-20% variability in hmF2. The TIME-GCM simulations and COSMIC observations of the hmF2 variability are in overall good agreement, and the simulations can thus be used to understand the physical processes responsible for the hmF2 variability. The simulation results demonstrate that the mid lattiude hmF2 variability is primarily driven by the propagation of the migrating semidiurnal lunar tide (M2) into the thermosphere where it modulates the field aligned neutrals winds, which in-turn raise and lower the F-region peak height. The importance of the thermosphere neutral winds on generating the ionosphere variability at mid latitudes during SSWs is supported by IPE simulations performed both with and without the neutral wind variability. Though there are subtle differences, the consistency of the behavior between the 2009 and 2013 SSWs suggests that variability in the Southern Hemisphere mid latitude ionosphere and thermosphere is a consistent feature of the SSW impact on the upper atmosphere.

Mapping the Martian Meteorology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allison, M.; Ross, J. D.; Solomon, N.

1999-01-01

The Mars-adapted version of the NASA/GISS general circulation model (GCM) has been applied to the hourly/daily simulation of the planet's meteorology over several seasonal orbits. The current running version of the model includes a diurnal solar cycle, CO2 sublimation, and a mature parameterization of upper level wave drag with a vertical domain extending from the surface up to the 6microb level. The benchmark simulations provide a four-dimensional archive for the comparative evaluation of various schemes for the retrieval of winds from anticipated polar orbiter measurements of temperatures by the Pressure Modulator Infrared Radiometer. Additional information is contained in the original extended abstract.

Climate of Earth-Like Planets With and Without Ocean Heat Transport Orbiting a Range of M and K Stars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kiang, N. Y.; Jablonski, Emma R.; Way, Michael J.; Del Genio, Anthony; Roberge, Aki

2015-01-01

The mean surface temperature of a planet is now acknowledged as insufficient to surmise its full potential habitability. Advancing our understanding requires exploration with 3D general circulation models (GCMs), which can take into account how gradients and fluxes across a planet's surface influence the distribution of heat, clouds, and the potential for heterogeneous distribution of liquid water. Here we present 3D GCM simulations of the effects of alternative stellar spectra, instellation, model resolution, and ocean heat transport, on the simulated distribution of heat and moisture of an Earth-like planet (ELP).

Analysis of the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation and its Relation to Cloud Radiative Forcing Using TRMM Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randall, David A.; Fowler, Laura D.; Lin, Xin

1998-01-01

In order to improve our understanding of the interactions between clouds, radiation, and the hydrological cycle simulated in the Colorado State University General Circulation Model (CSU GCM), we focused our research on the analysis of the diurnal cycle of precipitation, top-of-the-atmosphere and surface radiation budgets, and cloudiness using 10-year long Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. Comparisons the simulated diurnal cycle were made against the diurnal cycle of Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) radiation budget and International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) cloud products. This report summarizes our major findings over the Amazon Basin.

Radon-222 as a test of convective transport in a general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacob, Daniel J.; Prather, Michael J.

1990-01-01

A three-dimensional tracer model based on the Goddard Institude of Space Studies GCM is used to simulate the distribution of Rn-222 over North America to test the ability of the model to describe the transport of pollutants in the boundary layer and the exchange of mass between the boundary layer and the free troposphere. The model results are compared with surface observations from five sites in the U.S., showing that Rn-222 concentrations are primarily regulated by dry convection. The simulations show satisfactory agreement with observations although the model underpredicts observations at night and the simulated Rn-222 concentrations over the northeastern U.S. are too high in the spring and too low in the fall.

Estimating Past Temperature Change in Antarctica Based on Ice Core Stable Water Isotope Diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahle, E. C.; Markle, B. R.; Holme, C.; Jones, T. R.; Steig, E. J.

2017-12-01

The magnitude of the last glacial-interglacial transition is a key target for constraining climate sensitivity on long timescales. Ice core proxy records and general circulation models (GCMs) both provide insight on the magnitude of climate change through the last glacial-interglacial transition, but appear to provide different answers. In particular, the magnitude of the glacial-interglacial temperature change reconstructed from East Antarctic ice-core water-isotope records is greater ( 9 degrees C) than that from most GCM simulations ( 6 degrees C). A possible source of this difference is error in the linear-scaling of water isotopes to temperature. We employ a novel, nonlinear temperature-reconstruction technique using the physics of water-isotope diffusion to infer past temperature. Based on new, ice-core data from the South Pole, this diffusion technique suggests East Antarctic temperature change was smaller than previously thought. We are able to confirm this result using a simple, water-isotope fractionation model to nonlinearly reconstruct temperature change at ice core locations across Antarctica based on combined oxygen and hydrogen isotope ratios. Both methods produce a temperature change of 6 degrees C for South Pole, agreeing with GCM results for East Antarctica. Furthermore, both produce much larger changes in West Antarctica, also in agreement with GCM results and independent borehole thermometry. These results support the fidelity of GCMs in simulating last glacial maximum climate, and contradict the idea, based on previous work, that the climate sensitivity of current GCMs is too low.

Climate dynamics of South America during summer: Connections between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lenters, Johh Derick

1997-05-01

Relationships between the large-scale circulation and regional precipitation over South America during austral summer are examined using a GCM, linear model, and observational analyses. Emphasis is placed on understanding the origin of upper-tropospheric circulation features such as the Bolivian high and its effects on South American precipitation variability, particularly on the Central Andean Altiplano. Results from the linear model indicate that the Bolivian high and 'Nordeste low' are generated in response to precipitation over the Amazon basin, Central Andes, and South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ), with African precipitation also playing a crucial role in the formation of the low. The direct mechanical and sensible heating effects of the Andes are minimal, acting only to induce a weak lee trough in midlatitudes and a shallow monsoonal circulation over the Central Andes. In the GCM the effects of the Andes include a strengthening of the Bolivian high and northward shift of the Nordeste low, primarily through changes in the precipitation field. The position of the Bolivian high is primarily determined by Amazonian precipitation and is little affected by the removal of the Andes. Strong subsidence to the west of the high is found to be important for the maintenance of the high's warm core, while large-scale convective overshooting to the east is responsible for a layer of cold air above the high. Observations from eight summer seasons reveal a close relationship between precipitation variability in the Central Andes and the position and intensity of the Bolivian high. The physical mechanisms of this connection are explored using composite, EOF, and correlation techniques. On intraseasonal to interannual timescales, rainy episodes on the Altiplano are found to be associated with warm, moist, poleward flow along the eastern flank of the Andes, often in conjunction with extratropical disturbances and a westward displacement of the SACZ. Corresponding to this northerly advection of warm air is the southward enhancement of the Bolivian high. During dry periods such as the 1987 El Nino, enhanced frontal activity and associated cool, dry, southerly flow east of the Altiplano results in a northward displacement of the Bolivian high.

Development and Validation of Water Vapor Tracers as Diagnostics for the Atmospheric Hydrologic Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Understanding of the local and remote sources of water vapor can be a valuable diagnostic in understanding the regional atmospheric hydrologic cycle. In the present study, we have implemented passive tracers as prognostic variables to follow water vapor evaporated in predetermined regions until the water tracer precipitates. The formulation of the sources and sinks of tracer water is generally proportional to the prognostic water vapor variable. Because all water has been accounted for in tracers, the water vapor variable provides the validation of the tracer water and the formulation of the sources and sinks. The tracers have been implemented in a GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) simulation consisting of several summer periods to determine the source regions of precipitation for the United States and India. The recycling of water and interannual variability of the sources of water will be examined. Potential uses in GCM sensitivity studies, predictability studies and data assimilation will be discussed.

Seasonal Predictions with the GEOS GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Chang, Yehui; Suarez, Max

1999-01-01

A number of ensembles of seasonal forecasts have recently been completed as part of NASA's Seasonal to Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP). The focus is on the extratropical response of the atmosphere to observed Surface Sea Temperature (SST) anomalies during boreal winter. The prediction experiments consist of nine forecasts starting from slightly different initial conditions for each year of the 15 year period 1981-95, employing version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric Global Circulation Models (GCM). The initial conditions are obtained from the NASA GEOS-1 reanalysis data. Comparisons with a companion set of six long-term simulations with observed SST (starting in 1978, so they have no memory of the initial conditions for the periods of interest) are used to assess the relative contributions of the initial conditions and SST anomalies to forecast skill ranging from daily to seasonal time scales. The ensembles are used to isolate the signal, and to assess the nature of the inherent variability (noise) of the forecasts.

Poster 17: Methane storms as a driver of Titan's dune orientation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charnay, Benjamin; Barth, Erika; Rafkin, Scot; Narteau, Clement; Lebonnois, Sebastien; Rodriguez, Sebastien; Courech Du Pont, Sylvain; Lucas, Antoine

2016-06-01

Titan's equatorial regions are covered by eastward oriented linear dunes [1,2]. This direction is opposite to mean surface winds simulated by Global Climate Models (GCMs) at these latitudes, oriented westward as trade winds on Earth. We propose that Titan's dune orientation is actually determined by equinoctial tropical methane storms producing a coupling with superrotation and dune formation [3]. Using meso-scale simulations of convective methane clouds [4] with a GCM wind profile featuring the superrotation [5,6], we show that Titan's storms should produce fast eastward gust fronts above the surface. Such gusts dominate the aeolian transport. Using GCM wind calculations and analogies with terrestrial dune fields [7], we show that Titan's dune propagation occurs eastward under these conditions. Finally, this scenario combining global circulation winds and methane storms can explain other major features of Titan's dunes as the divergence from the equator or the dune size and spacing. It also implies an equatorial origin of Titan's dune sand and a possible occurence of dust storms.

Advance strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Darmanto, N. S.; Sueishi, T.; Kawano, N.

2017-12-01

An on-going 5-yr project financially supported by the Ministry of Environment, Japan, has been carried out to specifically address the issue of prescribing appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change in cities. Entitled "Case Study on Mitigation and Local Adaptation to Climate Change in an Asian Megacity, Jakarta", the project's relevant objectives is to develop a research framework that can consider both urbanization and climate change with the main advantage of being readily implementable for all cities around the world. The test location is the benchmark city, Jakarta, Indonesia, with the end focus of evaluating the benefits of various mitigation and adaptation strategies in Jakarta and other megacities. The framework was designed to improve representation of urban areas when conducting climate change investigations in cities; and to be able to quantify separately the impacts of urbanization and climate change to all cities globally. It is comprised of a sophisticated, top-down, multi-downscaling approach utilizing a regional model (numerical weather model) and a microscale model (energy balance model and CFD model), with global circulation models (GCM) as input. The models, except the GCM, were configured to reasonably consider land cover, urban morphology, and anthropogenic heating (AH). Equally as important, methodologies that can collect and estimate global distribution of urban parametric and AH datasets are continually being developed. Urban growth models, climate scenario matrices that match representative concentration pathways with shared socio-economic pathways, present distribution of socio-demographic indicators such as population and GDP, existing GIS datasets of urban parameters, are utilized. From these tools, future urbanization (urban morphological parameters and AH) can be introduced into the models. Sensitivity using various combinations of GCM and urbanization can be conducted. Furthermore, since the models utilize parameters that can be readily modified to suit certain countermeasures, adaptation and mitigation strategies can be evaluated using thermal comfort and other social indicators. With the approaches introduced through this project, a deeper understanding of urban-climate interactions in the changing global climate can be achieved.

Organization of extratropical transients during El Nino

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoerling, M.P.; Ting, Mingfang

Four observed El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are studied to determine the mechanisms responsible for the anomalous extratropical atmospheric circulation during northern winter. A parallel analysis of a GCM's response to El Nino is performed in order to assess if similar mechanisms are operative in the model atmosphere. The observed stationary wave anomalies over the Pacific/North American (PNA) region are found to be similar during the four winters despite appreciable differences in sea surface temperatures. The anomalous transient vorticity fluxes are remarkably robust over the North Pacific during each even, with an eastward extension of the climatological storm track leadingmore » to strong cyclonic forcing near 40[degrees]N, 150[degrees]W. This forcing is in phase with the seasonal mean Aleutian trough anomaly suggesting the important of eddy-mean flow interaction. By comparison, the intersample variability of the GCM response over the PNA region is found to exceed the observed inter-El Nino variability. This stems primarily from a large variability in the model's anomalous transients over the North Pacific. Further analysis reveals that extratropical vorticity transients are the primary mechanism maintaining the stationary wave anomalies over the PNA region during all four observed ENSO winters. In the case of the GCM, the organization of transient eddies is ill defined over the North Pacific, a behavior indicative of model error. A physical model is proposed to explain the robustness of the tropical controlling influence of the extratropical transients in nature. A simple equatorial Pacific heat source directly forces a tropical anticyclone whose phase relative to the climatological tropical anticyclone leads to an eastward extension of the subtropical jet stream. This mechanism appears to be equally effective for a heat source located either in the central or eastern Pacific basin. 36 refs., 14 figs.« less

Multimodel ensemble projection of precipitation in eastern China under A1B emission scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, Xiaorui; Wang, Shuyu; Tang, Jianping; Lee, Dong-Kyou; Gao, Xuejie; Wu, Jia; Hong, Songyou; Gutowski, William J.; McGregor, John

2015-10-01

As part of the Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project for Asia, future precipitation projection in China is constructed using five regional climate models (RCMs) driven by the same global climate model (GCM) of European Centre/Hamburg version 5. The simulations cover both the control climate (1978-2000) and future projection (2041-2070) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenario A1B. For the control climate, the RCMs have an advantage over the driving GCM in reproducing the summer mean precipitation distribution and the annual cycle. The biases in simulating summer precipitation mainly are caused by the deficiencies in reproducing the low-level circulation, such as the western Pacific subtropical high. In addition, large inter-RCM differences exist in the summer precipitation simulations. For the future climate, consistent and inconsistent changes in precipitation between the driving GCM and the nested RCMs are observed. Similar changes in summer precipitation are projected by RCMs over western China, but model behaviors are quite different over eastern China, which is dominated by the Asian monsoon system. The inter-RCM difference of rainfall changes is more pronounced in spring over eastern China. North China and the southern part of South China are very likely to experience less summer rainfall in multi-RCM mean (MRM) projection, while limited credibility in increased summer rainfall MRM projection over the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The inter-RCM variability is the main contributor to the total uncertainty for the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin and South China during 2041-2060, while lowest for Northeast China, being less than 40%.

Accounting for interannual variability: A comparison of options for water resources climate change impact assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

2011-04-01

Empirical scaling approaches for constructing rainfall scenarios from general circulation model (GCM) simulations are commonly used in water resources climate change impact assessments. However, these approaches have a number of limitations, not the least of which is that they cannot account for changes in variability or persistence at annual and longer time scales. Bias correction of GCM rainfall projections offers an attractive alternative to scaling methods as it has similar advantages to scaling in that it is computationally simple, can consider multiple GCM outputs, and can be easily applied to different regions or climatic regimes. In addition, it also allows for interannual variability to evolve according to the GCM simulations, which provides additional scenarios for risk assessments. This paper compares two scaling and four bias correction approaches for estimating changes in future rainfall over Australia and for a case study for water supply from the Warragamba catchment, located near Sydney, Australia. A validation of the various rainfall estimation procedures is conducted on the basis of the latter half of the observational rainfall record. It was found that the method leading to the lowest prediction errors varies depending on the rainfall statistic of interest. The flexibility of bias correction approaches in matching rainfall parameters at different frequencies is demonstrated. The results also indicate that for Australia, the scaling approaches lead to smaller estimates of uncertainty associated with changes to interannual variability for the period 2070-2099 compared to the bias correction approaches. These changes are also highlighted using the case study for the Warragamba Dam catchment.

The Simulation of Daily Temperature Time Series from GCM Output. Part II: Sensitivity Analysis of an Empirical Transfer Function Methodology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winkler, Julie A.; Palutikof, Jean P.; Andresen, Jeffrey A.; Goodess, Clare M.

1997-10-01

Empirical transfer functions have been proposed as a means for `downscaling' simulations from general circulation models (GCMs) to the local scale. However, subjective decisions made during the development of these functions may influence the ensuing climate scenarios. This research evaluated the sensitivity of a selected empirical transfer function methodology to 1) the definition of the seasons for which separate specification equations are derived, 2) adjustments for known departures of the GCM simulations of the predictor variables from observations, 3) the length of the calibration period, 4) the choice of function form, and 5) the choice of predictor variables. A modified version of the Climatological Projection by Model Statistics method was employed to generate control (1 × CO2) and perturbed (2 × CO2) scenarios of daily maximum and minimum temperature for two locations with diverse climates (Alcantarilla, Spain, and Eau Claire, Michigan). The GCM simulations used in the scenario development were from the Canadian Climate Centre second-generation model (CCC GCMII).Variations in the downscaling methodology were found to have a statistically significant impact on the 2 × CO2 climate scenarios, even though the 1 × CO2 scenarios for the different transfer function approaches were often similar. The daily temperature scenarios for Alcantarilla and Eau Claire were most sensitive to the decision to adjust for deficiencies in the GCM simulations, the choice of predictor variables, and the seasonal definitions used to derive the functions (i.e., fixed seasons, floating seasons, or no seasons). The scenarios were less sensitive to the choice of function form (i.e., linear versus nonlinear) and to an increase in the length of the calibration period.The results of Part I, which identified significant departures of the CCC GCMII simulations of two candidate predictor variables from observations, together with those presented here in Part II, 1) illustrate the importance of detailed comparisons of observed and GCM 1 × CO2 series of candidate predictor variables as an initial step in impact analysis, 2) demonstrate that decisions made when developing the transfer functions can have a substantial influence on the 2 × CO2 scenarios and their interpretation, 3) highlight the uncertainty in the appropriate criteria for evaluating transfer function approaches, and 4) suggest that automation of empirical transfer function methodologies is inappropriate because of differences in the performance of transfer functions between sites and because of spatial differences in the GCM's ability to adequately simulate the predictor variables used in the functions.

Role of the Tropical Pacific in recent Antarctic Sea-Ice Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Codron, F.; Bardet, D.; Allouache, C.; Gastineau, G.; Friedman, A. R.; Douville, H.; Voldoire, A.

2017-12-01

The recent (up to 2016) trends in Antarctic sea-ice cover - a global increase masking a dipole between the Ross and Bellingshausen-Weddel seas - are still not well understood, and not reproduced by CMIP5 coupled climate models. We here explore the potential role of atmospheric circulation changes around the Amundsen Sea, themselves possibly forced by tropical SSTs, an explanation that has been recently advanced. As a first check on this hypothesis, we compare the atmospheric circulation trends simulated by atmospheric GCMs coupled with an ocean or with imposed SSTs (AMIP experiment from CMIP5); the latter being in theory able to reproduce changes caused by natural SST variability. While coupled models simulate in aggregate trends that project on the SAM structure, strongest in summer, the AMIP simulations add in the winter season a pronounced Amundsen Sea Low signature (and a PNA signature in the northern hemisphere) both consistent with a Niña-like trend in the tropical Pacific. We then use a specific coupled GCM setup, in which surface wind anomalies over the tropical Pacific are strongly nudged towards the observed ones, including their interannual variability, but the model is free to evolve elsewhere. The two GCMs used then simulate a deepening trend in the Amundsen-Sea Low in winter, and are able to reproduce a dipole in sea-ice cover. Further analysis shows that the sea-ice dipole is partially forced by surface heat flux anomalies in early winter - the extent varying with the region and GCM used. The turbulent heat fluxes then act to damp the anomalies in late winter, which may however be maintained by ice-albedo feedbacks.

The Red Sea during the Last Glacial Maximum: implications for sea level reconstructions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gildor, H.; Biton, E.; Peltier, W. R.

2006-12-01

The Red Sea (RS) is a semi-enclosed basin connected to the Indian Ocean via a narrow and shallow strait, and surrounded by arid areas which exhibits high sensitivity to atmospheric changes and sea level reduction. We have used the MIT GCM to investigate the changes in the hydrography and circulation in the RS in response to reduced sea level, variability in the Indian monsoons, and changes in atmospheric temperature and humidity that occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). The model results show high sensitivity to sea level reduction especially in the salinity field (increasing with the reduction in sea level) together with a mild atmospheric impact. Sea level reduction decreases the stratification, increases subsurface temperatures, and alters the circulation pattern at the Strait of Bab el Mandab, which experiences a transition from submaximal flow to maximal flow. The reduction in sea level at LGM alters the location of deep water formation which shifts to an open sea convective site in the northern part of the RS compared to present day situation in which deep water is formed from the Gulf of Suez outflow. Our main result based on both the GCM and on a simple hydraulic control model which takes into account mixing process at the Strait of Bab El Mandeb, is that sea level was reduced by only ~100 m in the Bab El Mandeb region during the LGM, i.e. the water depth at the Hanish sill (the shallowest part in the Strait Bab el Mandab) was around 34 m. This result agrees with the recent reconstruction of the LGM low stand of the sea in this region based upon the ICE-5G (VM2) model of Peltier (2004).

The South Asian Monsoon and the Tropospheric Biennial Oscillation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meehl, Gerald A.

1997-08-01

A mechanism is described that involves the south Asian monsoon as an active part of the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) described in previous studies. This mechanism depends on coupled land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in the Indian sector, large-scale atmospheric east-west circulations in the Tropics, convective heating anomalies over Africa and the Pacific, and tropical-midlatitude interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. A key element for the monsoon role in the TBO is land-sea or meridional tropospheric temperature contrast, with area-averaged surface temperature anomalies over south Asia that are able to persist on a 1-yr timescale without the heat storage characteristics that contribute to this memory mechanism in the ocean. Results from a global coupled general circulation model show that soil moisture anomalies contribute to land-surface temperature anomalies (through latent heat flux anomalies) for only one season after the summer monsoon. A global atmospheric GCM in perpetual January mode is run with observed SSTs with specified convective heating anomalies to demonstrate that convective heating anomalies elsewhere in the Tropics associated with the coupled ocean-atmosphere biennial mechanism can contribute to altering seasonal midlatitude circulation. These changes in the midlatitude longwave pattern, forced by a combination of tropical convective heating anomalies over East Africa, Southeast Asia, and the western Pacific (in association with SST anomalies), are then able to maintain temperature anomalies over south Asia via advection through winter and spring to set up the land-sea meridional tropospheric temperature contrast for the subsequent monsoon. The role of the Indian Ocean, then, is to provide a moisture source and a low-amplitude coupled response component for meridional temperature contrast to help drive the south Asian monsoon. The role of the Pacific is to produce shifts in regionally coupled convection-SST anomalies. These regions are tied together and mutually interact via the large-scale east-west circulation in the atmosphere and contribute to altering midlatitude circulations as well. The coupled model results, and experiments with an atmospheric GCM that includes specified convective heating anomalies, suggest that the influence of south Asian snow cover in the monsoon is not a driving force by itself, but is symptomatic of the larger-scale shift in the midlatitude longwave pattern associated with tropical SST and convective heating anomalies.

NIR-Driven Moist Upper Atmospheres of Synchronously Rotating Temperate Terrestrial Exoplanets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fujii, Yuka; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Amundsen, David S.

2017-01-01

H2O is a key molecule in characterizing atmospheres of temperate terrestrial planets, and observations of transmission spectra are expected to play a primary role in detecting its signatures in the near future. The detectability of H2O absorption features in transmission spectra depends on the abundance of water vapor in the upper part of the atmosphere. We study the three-dimensional distribution of atmospheric H2O for synchronously rotating Earth-sized aquaplanets using the general circulation model (GCM) ROCKE-3D, and examine the effects of total incident flux and stellar spectral type. We observe a more gentle increase of the water vapor mixing ratio in response to increased incident flux than one-dimensional models suggest, in qualitative agreement with the climate-stabilizing effect of clouds around the substellar point previously observed in GCMs applied to synchronously rotating planets. However, the water vapor mixing ratio in the upper atmosphere starts to increase while the surface temperature is still moderate. This is explained by the circulation in the upper atmosphere being driven by the radiative heating due to absorption by water vapor and cloud particles, causing efficient vertical transport of water vapor. Consistently, the water vapor mixing ratio is found to be well-correlated with the near-infrared portion of the incident flux. We also simulate transmission spectra based on the GCM outputs, and show that for the more highly irradiated planets, the H2O signatures may be strengthened by a factor of a few, loosening the observational demands for a H2O detection.

ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, S. C.; Cai, Ming; Kalnay, E.; Rienecker, M.; Yuan, G.; Toth, ZA.

2004-01-01

The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) with the goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. The coupled instability as cap'tured by the breeding method is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Our results show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BV) peaks at about 3 months before a background ENSO event. The dominant growing BV modes are reminiscent of the background ENSO anomalies and show a strong tropical response with wind/SST/thermocline interrelated in a manner similar to the background ENSO mode. They exhibit larger amplitudes in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the presence of the shallow thermocline. Moreover, the extratropical perturbations associated with these coupled BV modes reveal the variations related to the atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with background ENSO variability, e.g. over the North Pacific and North America. A similar experiment was carried out with the NCEP/CFS03 CGCM. Comparisons between bred vectors from the NSIPP CGCM and NCEP/CFS03 CGCM demonstrate the robustness of the results. Our results strongly suggest that the breeding method can serve as a natural filter to identify the slowly varying, coupled instabilities in a coupled GCM, which can be used to construct ensemble perturbations for ensemble forecasts and to estimate the coupled background error covariance for coupled data assimilation.

The effects of cloud radiative forcing on an ocean-covered planet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Randall, David A.

1990-01-01

Cumulus anvil clouds, whose importance has been emphasized by observationalists in recent years, exert a very powerful influence on deep tropical convection by tending to radiatively destabilize the troposphere. In addition, they radiatively warm the column in which they reside. Their strong influence on the simulated climate argues for a much more refined parameterization in the General Circulation Model (GCM). For Seaworld, the atmospheric cloud radiative forcing (ACRF) has a powerful influence on such basic climate parameters as the strength of the Hadley circulation, the existence of a single narrow InterTropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), and the precipitable water content of the atmosphere. It seems likely, however, that in the real world the surface CRF feeds back negatively to suppress moist convection and the associated cloudiness, and so tends to counteract the effects of the ACRF. Many current climate models have fixed sea surface temperatures but variable land-surface temperatures. The tropical circulations of such models may experience a position feedback due to ACRF over the oceans, and a negative or weak feedback due to surface CRF over the land. The overall effects of the CRF on the climate system can only be firmly established through much further analysis, which can benefit greatly from the use of a coupled ocean-atmospheric model.

The role of shallow convection in promoting the northward propagation of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Fei; Zhao, Jiuwei; Fu, Xiouhua; Huang, Gang

2018-02-01

By conducting idealized experiments in a general circulation model (GCM) and in a toy theoretical model, we test the hypothesis that shallow convection (SC) is responsible for explaining why the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) prefers propagating northward. Two simulations are performed using ECHAM4, with the control run using a standard detrainment rate of SC and the sensitivity run turning off the detrainment rate of SC. These two simulations display dramatically different BSISO characteristics. The control run simulates the realistic northward propagation (NP) of the BSISO, while the sensitivity run with little SC only simulates stationary signals. In the sensitivity run, the meridional asymmetries of vorticity and humidity fields are simulated under the monsoon vertical wind shear (VWS); thus, the frictional convergence can be excited to the north of the BSISO. However, the lack of SC makes the lower and middle troposphere very dry, which prohibits further development of deeper convection. A theoretical BSISO model is also constructed, and the result shows that SC is a key to convey the asymmetric vorticity effect to induce the BSISO to move northward. Thus, both the GCM and theoretical model results demonstrate the importance of SC in promoting the NP of the BSISO.

Regional Climate Change across North America in 2030 Projected from RCP6.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otte, T.; Nolte, C. G.; Faluvegi, G.; Shindell, D. T.

2012-12-01

Projecting climate change scenarios to local scales is important for understanding and mitigating the effects of climate change on society and the environment. Many of the general circulation models (GCMs) that are participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) do not fully resolve regional-scale processes and therefore cannot capture local changes in temperature and precipitation extremes. We seek to project the GCM's large-scale climate change signal to the local scale using a regional climate model (RCM) by applying dynamical downscaling techniques. The RCM will be used to better understand the local changes of temperature and precipitation extremes that may result from a changing climate. In this research, downscaling techniques that we developed with historical data are now applied to GCM fields. Results from downscaling NASA/GISS ModelE2 simulations of the IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 6.0 will be shown. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model has been used as the RCM to downscale decadal time slices for ca. 2000 and ca. 2030 over North America and illustrate potential changes in regional climate that are projected by ModelE2 and WRF under RCP6.0. The analysis focuses on regional climate fields that most strongly influence the interactions between climate change and air quality. In particular, an analysis of extreme temperature and precipitation events will be presented.

GCM Simulation of the Large-scale North American Monsoon Including Water Vapor Tracer Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Walker, Gregory; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Sud, Yogesh; Atlas, Robert M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The geographic sources of water for the large-scale North American monsoon in a GCM are diagnosed using passive constituent tracers of regional water'sources (Water Vapor Tracers, WVT). The NASA Data Assimilation Office Finite Volume (FV) GCM was used to produce a 10-year simulation (1984 through 1993) including observed sea surface temperature. Regional and global WVT sources were defined to delineate the surface origin of water for precipitation in and around the North American i'vionsoon. The evolution of the mean annual cycle and the interannual variations of the monsoonal circulation will be discussed. Of special concern are the relative contributions of the local source (precipitation recycling) and remote sources of water vapor to the annual cycle and the interannual variation of warm season precipitation. The relationships between soil water, surface evaporation, precipitation and precipitation recycling will be evaluated.

Evaluation of a Mineral Dust Simulation in the Atmospheric-Chemistry General Circulation Model-EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel Kader, M.; Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.

2012-04-01

This study presents an evaluation of the atmospheric mineral dust cycle in the Atmospheric Chemistry General Circulation Model (AC-GCM) using new developed dust emissions scheme. The dust cycle, as an integral part of the Earth System, plays an important role in the Earth's energy balance by both direct and indirect ways. As an aerosol, it significantly impacts the absorption and scattering of radiation in the atmosphere and can modify the optical properties of clouds and snow/ice surfaces. In addition, dust contributes to a range of physical, chemical and bio-geological processes that interact with the cycles of carbon and water. While our knowledge of the dust cycle, its impacts and interactions with the other global-scale bio-geochemical cycles has greatly advanced in the last decades, large uncertainties and knowledge gaps still exist. Improving the dust simulation in global models is essential to minimize the uncertainties in the model results related to dust. In this study, the results are based on the ECHAM5 Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) AC-GCM simulations using T106L31 spectral resolution (about 120km ) with 31 vertical levels. The GMXe aerosol submodel is used to simulate the phase changes of the dust particles between soluble and insoluble modes. Dust emission, transport and deposition (wet and dry) are calculated on-line along with the meteorological parameters in every model time step. The preliminary evaluation of the dust concentration and deposition are presented based on ground observations from various campaigns as well as the evaluation of the optical properties of dust using AERONET and satellite (MODIS and MISR) observations. Preliminarily results show good agreement with observations for dust deposition and optical properties. In addition, the global dust emissions, load, deposition and lifetime is in good agreement with the published results. Also, the uncertainties in the dust cycle that contribute to the overall model performance will be briefly discussed as it is a subject of future work.

Numerical simulation of the atmospheric response ito the time-varying El Nino SST anomalies during May 1982 through October 1983

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fennessy, M. J.; Shukla, J.

1988-01-01

An attempt is made to simulate the atmospheric circulation anomalies corresponding to the observed SST anomalies in the Pacific Ocean for the 18-month period of May 1982 through October 1983. A GCM is first integrated for 25 months with monthly climatological boundary conditions of SST, soil moisture, sea, ice, and albedo. Starting from day 165 of this 'control' integration, which corresponds to May 1, the 18-month integration is carried out with the same boundary conditions except that the observed monthly SST anomalies for May 1982-October 1983 are added to the climatological values in the Pacific from 40 S to 60 N. The evolution of the model-simulated circulation and rainfall anomalies are compared to actual observations for the same period, and remarkable agreement is found.

Approximating uncertainty of annual runoff and reservoir yield using stochastic replicates of global climate model data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peel, M. C.; Srikanthan, R.; McMahon, T. A.; Karoly, D. J.

2015-04-01

Two key sources of uncertainty in projections of future runoff for climate change impact assessments are uncertainty between global climate models (GCMs) and within a GCM. Within-GCM uncertainty is the variability in GCM output that occurs when running a scenario multiple times but each run has slightly different, but equally plausible, initial conditions. The limited number of runs available for each GCM and scenario combination within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) and phase 5 (CMIP5) data sets, limits the assessment of within-GCM uncertainty. In this second of two companion papers, the primary aim is to present a proof-of-concept approximation of within-GCM uncertainty for monthly precipitation and temperature projections and to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff for climate change impact assessments. A secondary aim is to assess the impact of between-GCM uncertainty on modelled runoff. Here we approximate within-GCM uncertainty by developing non-stationary stochastic replicates of GCM monthly precipitation and temperature data. These replicates are input to an off-line hydrologic model to assess the impact of within-GCM uncertainty on projected annual runoff and reservoir yield. We adopt stochastic replicates of available GCM runs to approximate within-GCM uncertainty because large ensembles, hundreds of runs, for a given GCM and scenario are unavailable, other than the Climateprediction.net data set for the Hadley Centre GCM. To date within-GCM uncertainty has received little attention in the hydrologic climate change impact literature and this analysis provides an approximation of the uncertainty in projected runoff, and reservoir yield, due to within- and between-GCM uncertainty of precipitation and temperature projections. In the companion paper, McMahon et al. (2015) sought to reduce between-GCM uncertainty by removing poorly performing GCMs, resulting in a selection of five better performing GCMs from CMIP3 for use in this paper. Here we present within- and between-GCM uncertainty results in mean annual precipitation (MAP), mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual runoff (MAR), the standard deviation of annual precipitation (SDP), standard deviation of runoff (SDR) and reservoir yield for five CMIP3 GCMs at 17 worldwide catchments. Based on 100 stochastic replicates of each GCM run at each catchment, within-GCM uncertainty was assessed in relative form as the standard deviation expressed as a percentage of the mean of the 100 replicate values of each variable. The average relative within-GCM uncertainties from the 17 catchments and 5 GCMs for 2015-2044 (A1B) were MAP 4.2%, SDP 14.2%, MAT 0.7%, MAR 10.1% and SDR 17.6%. The Gould-Dincer Gamma (G-DG) procedure was applied to each annual runoff time series for hypothetical reservoir capacities of 1 × MAR and 3 × MAR and the average uncertainties in reservoir yield due to within-GCM uncertainty from the 17 catchments and 5 GCMs were 25.1% (1 × MAR) and 11.9% (3 × MAR). Our approximation of within-GCM uncertainty is expected to be an underestimate due to not replicating the GCM trend. However, our results indicate that within-GCM uncertainty is important when interpreting climate change impact assessments. Approximately 95% of values of MAP, SDP, MAT, MAR, SDR and reservoir yield from 1 × MAR or 3 × MAR capacity reservoirs are expected to fall within twice their respective relative uncertainty (standard deviation/mean). Within-GCM uncertainty has significant implications for interpreting climate change impact assessments that report future changes within our range of uncertainty for a given variable - these projected changes may be due solely to within-GCM uncertainty. Since within-GCM variability is amplified from precipitation to runoff and then to reservoir yield, climate change impact assessments that do not take into account within-GCM uncertainty risk providing water resources management decision makers with a sense of certainty that is unjustified.

Nonlinear Eddy-Eddy Interactions in Dry Atmospheres Macroturbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ait Chaalal, F.; Schneider, T.

2012-12-01

The statistical moment equations derived from the atmospheric equation of motions are not closed. However neglecting the large-scale eddy-eddy nonlinear interactions in an idealized dry general circulation model (GCM), which is equivalent to truncating the moment equations at the second order, can reproduce some of the features of the general circulation ([1]), highlighting the significance of eddy-mean flow interactions and the weakness of eddy-eddy interactions in atmospheric macroturbulence ([2]). The goal of the present study is to provide new insight into the rôle of these eddy-eddy interactions and discuss the relevance of a simple stochastic parametrization to represent them. We investigate in detail the general circulation in an idealized dry GCM, comparing full simulations with simulations where the eddy-eddy interactions are removed. The radiative processes are parametrized through Newtonian relaxation toward a radiative-equilibrium state with a prescribed equator to pole temperature contrast. A convection scheme relaxing toward a prescribed convective vertical lapse rate mimics some aspects of moist convection. The study is performed over a wide range of parameters covering the planetary rotation rate, the equator to pole temperature contrast and the vertical lapse rate. Particular attention is given to the wave-mean flow interactions and to the spectral budget. It is found that the no eddy-eddy simulations perform well when the baroclinic activity is weaker, for example for lower equator to pole temperature contrasts or higher rotation rates: the mean meridional circulation is well reproduced, with realistic eddy-driven jets and energy-containing eddy length scales of the order of the Rossby deformation radius. For a stronger baroclinic activity the no eddy-eddy model does not achieve a realistic isotropization of the eddies, the meridional circulation is compressed in the meridional direction and secondary eddy-driven jets emerge. In addition, the baroclinic wave activity does not reach the upper troposphere in association with a very weak or absent Rossby wave absorption in the upper subtropical troposphere. Understanding these deficiencies and the rôle of the eddy-eddy nonlinear interactions in determining the mean meridional circulation paves the way to the development of stochastic third order moments parametrizations, to eventually build GCMs that directly solve for the flow statistics and that could provide a deeper understanding of anthropogenic and natural climate changes. [1] O'Gorman, P. A., & Schneider, T. 2007, Geophysical Research Letters, 34, 22801 [2] Schneider, T., and C. C. Walker, 2006, Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 63, 1569-1586.

Decoupling of Iron and Phosphate in the Global Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parekh, Payal

2003-01-01

Iron is an essential micronutrient for marine phytoplankton, limiting their growth in high nutrient, low chlorophyll regions of the ocean. I use a hierarchy of ocean circulation and biogeochemistry models to understand controls on global iron distribution. I formulate a mechanistic model of iron cycling which includes scavenging onto sinking particles and complexation with an organic ligand. The iron cycle is coupled to a phosphorus cycling model. Iron's aeolian source is prescribed. In the context of a highly idealized multi-box model scheme, the model can be brought into consistency with the relatively sparse ocean observations of iron in the oceans. This biogeochemical scheme is also implemented in a coarse resolution ocean general circulation model. This model also successfully reproduces the broad regional patterns of iron and phosphorus. In particular, the high macronutrient concentrations of the Southern Ocean result from iron limitation in the model. Due to the potential ability of iron to change the efficiency of the carbon pump in the remote Southern Ocean, I study Southern Ocean surface phosphate response to increased aeolian dust flux. My box model and GCM results suggest that a global ten fold increase in dust flux can support a phosphate drawdown of 0.25-0.5 micromolar.

Simulation of South-Asian Summer Monsoon in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayamohan, R. S.

2007-10-01

Major characteristics of Indian summer monsoon climate are analyzed using simulations from the upgraded version of Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM). The Indian monsoon has been studied in terms of mean precipitation and low-level and upper-level circulation patterns and compared with observations. In addition, the model's fidelity in simulating observed monsoon intraseasonal variability, interannual variability and teleconnection patterns is examined. The model is successful in simulating the major rainbelts over the Indian monsoon region. However, the model exhibits bias in simulating the precipitation bands over the South China Sea and the West Pacific region. Seasonal mean circulation patterns of low-level and upper-level winds are consistent with the model's precipitation pattern. Basic features like onset and peak phase of monsoon are realistically simulated. However, model simulation indicates an early withdrawal of monsoon. Northward propagation of rainbelts over the Indian continent is simulated fairly well, but the propagation is weak over the ocean. The model simulates the meridional dipole structure associated with the monsoon intraseasonal variability realistically. The model is unable to capture the observed interannual variability of monsoon and its teleconnection patterns. Estimate of potential predictability of the model reveals the dominating influence of internal variability over the Indian monsoon region.

Modelling the climate and ice sheets of the mid-Pliocene warm period: a test of model dependency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, Aisling; Haywood, Alan; Lunt, Daniel; Hill, Daniel

2010-05-01

The mid-Pliocene warm period (MPWP; c. 3.0 - 3.3 million years ago) has been the subject of a large number of published studies during the last decade. It is an interval in Earth history, where conditions were similar to those predicted by climate models for the end of the 21st Century. Not only is it important to increase our understanding of the climate dynamics in a warmer world, it is also important to determine exactly how well numerical models can retrodict a climate significantly different from the present day, in order to have confidence in them for predicting the future climate. Previous General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations have indicated that MPWP mean annual surface temperatures were on average 2 to 3˚C warmer than the pre-industrial era. Coastal stratigraphy and benthic oxygen isotope records suggest that terrestrial ice volumes were reduced when compared to modern. Ice sheet modelling studies have supported this decrease in cryospheric extent. Generally speaking, both climate and ice sheet modelling studies have only used results from one numerical model when simulating the climate of the MPWP. However, recent projects such as PMIP (the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project) have emphasised the need to explore the dependency of past climate predictions on the specific climate model which is used. Here we present a comparison of MPWP climatologies produced by three atmosphere only GCMs from the Goddard Institute of Space Studies (GISS), the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (GCMAM3, CAM3-CLM and HadAM3 respectively). We focus on the ability of the GCMs to simulate climate fields needed to drive an offline ice sheet model to assess whether there are any significant differences between the climatologies. By taking the different temperature and precipitation predictions simulated by the three models as a forcing, and adopting GCM-specific topography, we have used the British Antarctic Survey thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model (BASISM) to test the extent to which equilibrium state ice sheets in the Northern Hemisphere are GCM dependent. Initial results which do not use GCM-specific topography suggest that employing different GCM climatologies with only small differences in surface air temperature and precipitation has a dramatic effect on the resultant Greenland ice sheet, where the end-member ice sheets vary from near modern to almost zero ice volume. As an extension of this analysis, we will also present results using a second ice sheet model (Glimmer), with a view to testing the degree to which end-member ice sheets are ice sheet model dependent, something which has not previously been addressed. Initially, BASISM and Glimmer will be internally optimised for performance, but we will also present a comparison where BASISM will be configured to the Glimmer model setup in a further test of ice sheet model dependency.

Performance of Versions 1,2 and 3 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, Steven; Stolarski, Richard S.; Nielsen, J. Eric; Duncan, Bryan N.

2008-01-01

Version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) was used in the first CCMVa1 model evaluation and forms the basis for several studies of links between ozone and the circulation. That version of the CCM was based on the GEOS-4 GCM. Versions 2 and 3 of the GEOS CCM are based on the GEOS-5 GCM, which retains the "Lin-Rood" dynamical core but has a totally different set of physical parameterizatiOns to GEOS-4. In Version 2 of the GEOS CCM the Goddard stratospheric chemistry module is retained. Difference between Versions 1 and 2 thus reflect the physics changes of the underlying GCMs. Several comparisons between these two models are made, several of which reveal improvements in Version 2 (including a more realistic representation of the interannual variability of the Antarctic vortex). In Version 3 of the GEOS CCM, the stratospheric chemistry mechanism is replaced by the "GMI COMBO" code that includes tropospheric chemistry and different computational approaches. An advantage of this model version. is the reduction of high ozone biases that prevail at low chlorine loadings in Versions 1 and 2. This poster will compare and contrast various aspects of the three model versions that are relevant for understanding interactions between ozone and climate.

A Cloud Microphysics Model for the Gas Giant Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palotai, Csaba J.; Le Beau, Raymond P.; Shankar, Ramanakumar; Flom, Abigail; Lashley, Jacob; McCabe, Tyler

2016-10-01

Recent studies have significantly increased the quality and the number of observed meteorological features on the jovian planets, revealing banded cloud structures and discrete features. Our current understanding of the formation and decay of those clouds also defines the conceptual modes about the underlying atmospheric dynamics. The full interpretation of the new observational data set and the related theories requires modeling these features in a general circulation model (GCM). Here, we present details of our bulk cloud microphysics model that was designed to simulate clouds in the Explicit Planetary Hybrid-Isentropic Coordinate (EPIC) GCM for the jovian planets. The cloud module includes hydrological cycles for each condensable species that consist of interactive vapor, cloud and precipitation phases and it also accounts for latent heating and cooling throughout the transfer processes (Palotai and Dowling, 2008. Icarus, 194, 303-326). Previously, the self-organizing clouds in our simulations successfully reproduced the vertical and horizontal ammonia cloud structure in the vicinity of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and Oval BA (Palotai et al. 2014, Icarus, 232, 141-156). In our recent work, we extended this model to include water clouds on Jupiter and Saturn, ammonia clouds on Saturn, and methane clouds on Uranus and Neptune. Details of our cloud parameterization scheme, our initial results and their comparison with observations will be shown. The latest version of EPIC model is available as open source software from NASA's PDS Atmospheres Node.

Bias correction of temperature produced by the Community Climate System Model using Artificial Neural Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghim, S.; Hsu, K.; Bras, R. L.

2013-12-01

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are used to predict circulation and energy transfers between the atmosphere and the land. It is known that these models produce biased results that will have impact on their uses. This work proposes a new method for bias correction: the equidistant cumulative distribution function-artificial neural network (EDCDFANN) procedure. The method uses artificial neural networks (ANNs) as a surrogate model to estimate bias-corrected temperature, given an identification of the system derived from GCM models output variables. A two-layer feed forward neural network is trained with observations during a historical period and then the adjusted network can be used to predict bias-corrected temperature for future periods. To capture the extreme values this method is combined with the equidistant CDF matching method (EDCDF, Li et al. 2010). The proposed method is tested with the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) outputs using air and skin temperature, specific humidity, shortwave and longwave radiation as inputs to the ANN. This method decreases the mean square error and increases the spatial correlation between the modeled temperature and the observed one. The results indicate the EDCDFANN has potential to remove the biases of the model outputs.

Projecting impacts of climate change on water availability using artificial neural network techniques

USGS Publications Warehouse

Swain, Eric D.; Gomez-Fragoso, Julieta; Torres-Gonzalez, Sigfredo

2017-01-01

Lago Loíza reservoir in east-central Puerto Rico is one of the primary sources of public water supply for the San Juan metropolitan area. To evaluate and predict the Lago Loíza water budget, an artificial neural network (ANN) technique is trained to predict river inflows. A method is developed to combine ANN-predicted daily flows with ANN-predicted 30-day cumulative flows to improve flow estimates. The ANN application trains well for representing 2007–2012 and the drier 1994–1997 periods. Rainfall data downscaled from global circulation model (GCM) simulations are used to predict 2050–2055 conditions. Evapotranspiration is estimated with the Hargreaves equation using minimum and maximum air temperatures from the downscaled GCM data. These simulated 2050–2055 river flows are input to a water budget formulation for the Lago Loíza reservoir for comparison with 2007–2012. The ANN scenarios require far less computational effort than a numerical model application, yet produce results with sufficient accuracy to evaluate and compare hydrologic scenarios. This hydrologic tool will be useful for future evaluations of the Lago Loíza reservoir and water supply to the San Juan metropolitan area.

Comparisons of observed seasonal climate features with a winter and summer numerical simulation produced with the GLAS general circulation model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halem, M.; Shukla, J.; Mintz, Y.; Wu, M. L.; Godbole, R.; Herman, G.; Sud, Y.

1979-01-01

Results are presented from numerical simulations performed with the general circulation model (GCM) for winter and summer. The monthly mean simulated fields for each integration are compared with observed geographical distributions and zonal averages. In general, the simulated sea level pressure and upper level geopotential height field agree well with the observations. Well simulated features are the winter Aleutian and Icelandic lows, the summer southwestern U.S. low, the summer and winter oceanic subtropical highs in both hemispheres, and the summer upper level Tibetan high and Atlantic ridge. The surface and upper air wind fields in the low latitudes are in good agreement with the observations. The geographical distirbutions of the Earth-atmosphere radiation balance and of the precipitation rates over the oceans are well simulated, but not all of the intensities of these features are correct. Other comparisons are shown for precipitation along the ITCZ, rediation balance, zonally averaged temperatures and zonal winds, and poleward transports of momentum and sensible heat.

A Comparison of the Age-Spectra from Data Assimilation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Zhu, Zheng-Xin; Pawson, Steven; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

We use kinematic and diabatic back trajectory calculations, driven by winds from a general circulation model (GCM) and two different data assimilation systems (DAS), to compute the age spectrum at three latitudes in the lower stratosphere. The age-spectra are compared to chemical transport model (CTM) calculations, and the mean ages from all of these studies are compared to observations. The age spectra computed using the GCM winds show a reasonably well-isolated tropics in good agreement with observations; however, the age spectra determined from the DAS differ from the GCM spectra. For the diabatic trajectory calculations, the age spectrum is too broad as a result of too much exchange between the tropics and mid-latitudes. The age spectrum determined using the kinematic trajectory calculation is less broad and lacks an age offset; both of these features are due to excessive vertical dispersion of parcels. The tropical and mid-latitude mean age difference between the diabatically and kinematically determined age-spectra is about one year, the former being older. The CTM calculation of the age spectrum using the DAS winds shows the same dispersive characteristics of the kinematic trajectory calculation. These results suggest that the current DAS products will not give realistic trace gas distributions for long integrations; they also help explain why the mean ages determined in a number of previous DAS driven CTM's are too young compared with observations. Finally, we note trajectory-generated age spectra show significant age anomalies correlated with the seasonal cycles, and these anomalies can be linked to year-to-year variations in the tropical heating rate. These anomalies are suppressed in the CTM spectra suggesting that the CTM transport is too diffusive.

Timescales of AMOC decline in response to fresh water forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, Laura C.; Wood, Richard A.

2017-12-01

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is predicted to weaken over the coming century due to warming from greenhouse gases and increased input of fresh water into the North Atlantic, however there is considerable uncertainty as to the amount and rate of AMOC weakening. Understanding what controls the rate and timescale of AMOC weakening may help to reduce this uncertainty and hence reduce the uncertainty surrounding associated impacts. As a first step towards this we consider the timescales associated with weakening in response to idealized freshening scenarios. Here we explore timescales of AMOC weakening in response to a freshening of the North Atlantic in a suite of experiments with an eddy-permitting global climate model (GCM). When the rate of fresh water added to the North Atlantic is small (0.1 Sv; 1 Sv =1× 10^6 m^3 /s), the timescale of AMOC weakening depends mainly on the rate of fresh water input itself and can be longer than a century. When the rate of fresh water added is large (≥ 0.3 Sv) however, the timescale is a few decades and is insensitive to the actual rate of fresh water input. This insensitivity is because with a greater rate of fresh water input the advective feedbacks become more important at exporting fresh anomalies, so the rate of freshening is similar. We find advective feedbacks from: an export of fresh anomalies by the mean flow; less volume import through the Bering Strait; a weakening AMOC transporting less subtropical water northwards; and anomalous subtropical circulations which amplify export of the fresh anomalies. This latter circulation change is driven itself by the presence of fresh anomalies exported from the subpolar gyre through geostrophy. This feedback has not been identified in previous model studies and when the rate of freshening is strong it is found to dominate the total export of fresh anomalies, and hence the timescale of AMOC decline. Although results may be model dependent, qualitatively similar mechanisms are also found in a single experiment with a different GCM.

Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change.

PubMed

Tao, Fulu; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Hayashi, Yousay; Lin, Erda

2003-06-01

The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.

Impact of the semidiurnal lunar tide on the midlatitude thermospheric wind and ionosphere during sudden stratosphere warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.; Maute, A.

2015-12-01

Variability of the midlatitude ionosphere and thermosphere during the 2009 and 2013 sudden stratosphere warmings (SSWs) is investigated in the present study using a combination of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations and thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulations. Both the COSMIC observations and TIME-GCM simulations reveal perturbations in the F region peak height (hmF2) at Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes during SSW time periods. The perturbations are ˜20-30 km, which corresponds to 10-20% variability of the background mean hmF2. The TIME-GCM simulations and COSMIC observations of the hmF2 variability are in overall good agreement, and the simulations can thus be used to understand the physical processes responsible for the hmF2 variability. Through comparison of simulations with and without the migrating semidiurnal lunar tide (M2), we conclude that the midlatitude hmF2 variability is primarily driven by the propagation of the M2 into the thermosphere where it modulates the field-aligned neutral winds, which in turn raise and lower the F region peak height. Though there are subtle differences, the consistency of the behavior between the 2009 and 2013 SSWs suggests that variability in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude ionosphere and thermosphere is a consistent feature of the SSW impact on the upper atmosphere.

Sensitivity of Age-of-Air Calculations to the Choice of Advection Scheme

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Hemler, Richard S.; Mahlman, Jerry D.; Bruhwiler, Lori; Takacs, Lawrence L.

2000-01-01

The age of air has recently emerged as a diagnostic of atmospheric transport unaffected by chemical parameterizations, and the features in the age distributions computed in models have been interpreted in terms of the models' large-scale circulation field. This study shows, however, that in addition to the simulated large-scale circulation, three-dimensional age calculations can also be affected by the choice of advection scheme employed in solving the tracer continuity equation, Specifically, using the 3.0deg latitude X 3.6deg longitude and 40 vertical level version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory SKYHI GCM and six online transport schemes ranging from Eulerian through semi-Lagrangian to fully Lagrangian, it will be demonstrated that the oldest ages are obtained using the nondiffusive centered-difference schemes while the youngest ages are computed with a semi-Lagrangian transport (SLT) scheme. The centered- difference schemes are capable of producing ages older than 10 years in the mesosphere, thus eliminating the "young bias" found in previous age-of-air calculations. At this stage, only limited intuitive explanations can be advanced for this sensitivity of age-of-air calculations to the choice of advection scheme, In particular, age distributions computed online with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (MACCM3) using different varieties of the SLT scheme are substantially older than the SKYHI SLT distribution. The different varieties, including a noninterpolating-in-the-vertical version (which is essentially centered-difference in the vertical), also produce a narrower range of age distributions than the suite of advection schemes employed in the SKYHI model. While additional MACCM3 experiments with a wider range of schemes would be necessary to provide more definitive insights, the older and less variable MACCM3 age distributions can plausibly be interpreted as being due to the semi-implicit semi-Lagrangian dynamics employed in the MACCM3. This type of dynamical core (employed with a 60-min time step) is likely to reduce SLT's interpolation errors that are compounded by the short-term variability characteristic of the explicit centered-difference dynamics employed in the SKYHI model (time step of 3 min). In the extreme case of a very slowly varying circulation, the choice of advection scheme has no effect on two-dimensional (latitude-height) age-of-air calculations, owing to the smooth nature of the transport circulation in 2D models. These results suggest that nondiffusive schemes may be the preferred choice for multiyear simulations of tracers not overly sensitive to the requirement of monotonicity (this category includes many greenhouse gases). At the same time, age-of-air calculations offer a simple quantitative diagnostic of a scheme's long-term diffusive properties and may help in the evaluation of dynamical cores in multiyear integrations. On the other hand, the sensitivity of the computed ages to the model numerics calls for caution in using age of air as a diagnostic of a GCM's large-scale circulation field.

Studies of regional-scale climate variability and change. Hidden Markov models and coupled ocean-atmosphere modes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ghil, M.; Kravtsov, S.; Robertson, A. W.

2008-10-14

This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding, in which we had developed a twin approach of probabilistic network (PN) models (sometimes called dynamic Bayesian networks) and intermediate-complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere models (ICMs) to identify the predictable modes of climate variability and to investigate their impacts on the regional scale. We had developed a family of PNs (similar to Hidden Markov Models) to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale GCM seasonal predictions. Using an idealized atmospheric model, we had established a novel mechanism through which ocean-induced sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies might influencemore » large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns on interannual and longer time scales; we had found similar patterns in a hybrid coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea-ice model. The goal of the this continuation project was to build on these ICM results and PN model development to address prediction of rainfall and temperature statistics at the local scale, associated with global climate variability and change, and to investigate the impact of the latter on coupled ocean-atmosphere modes. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling together with the development of associated software; new intermediate coupled models; a new methodology of inverse modeling for linking ICMs with observations and GCM results; and, observational studies of decadal and multi-decadal natural climate results, informed by ICM results.« less

Evaluation of statistically downscaled GCM output as input for hydrological and stream temperature simulation in the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River Basin (1961–99)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hay, Lauren E.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Markstrom, Steven

2014-01-01

The accuracy of statistically downscaled general circulation model (GCM) simulations of daily surface climate for historical conditions (1961–99) and the implications when they are used to drive hydrologic and stream temperature models were assessed for the Apalachicola–Chattahoochee–Flint River basin (ACFB). The ACFB is a 50 000 km2 basin located in the southeastern United States. Three GCMs were statistically downscaled, using an asynchronous regional regression model (ARRM), to ⅛° grids of daily precipitation and minimum and maximum air temperature. These ARRM-based climate datasets were used as input to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), a deterministic, distributed-parameter, physical-process watershed model used to simulate and evaluate the effects of various combinations of climate and land use on watershed response. The ACFB was divided into 258 hydrologic response units (HRUs) in which the components of flow (groundwater, subsurface, and surface) are computed in response to climate, land surface, and subsurface characteristics of the basin. Daily simulations of flow components from PRMS were used with the climate to simulate in-stream water temperatures using the Stream Network Temperature (SNTemp) model, a mechanistic, one-dimensional heat transport model for branched stream networks.The climate, hydrology, and stream temperature for historical conditions were evaluated by comparing model outputs produced from historical climate forcings developed from gridded station data (GSD) versus those produced from the three statistically downscaled GCMs using the ARRM methodology. The PRMS and SNTemp models were forced with the GSD and the outputs produced were treated as “truth.” This allowed for a spatial comparison by HRU of the GSD-based output with ARRM-based output. Distributional similarities between GSD- and ARRM-based model outputs were compared using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test in combination with descriptive metrics such as the mean and variance and an evaluation of rare and sustained events. In general, precipitation and streamflow quantities were negatively biased in the downscaled GCM outputs, and results indicate that the downscaled GCM simulations consistently underestimate the largest precipitation events relative to the GSD. The KS test results indicate that ARRM-based air temperatures are similar to GSD at the daily time step for the majority of the ACFB, with perhaps subweekly averaging for stream temperature. Depending on GCM and spatial location, ARRM-based precipitation and streamflow requires averaging of up to 30 days to become similar to the GSD-based output.Evaluation of the model skill for historical conditions suggests some guidelines for use of future projections; while it seems correct to place greater confidence in evaluation metrics which perform well historically, this does not necessarily mean those metrics will accurately reflect model outputs for future climatic conditions. Results from this study indicate no “best” overall model, but the breadth of analysis can be used to give the product users an indication of the applicability of the results to address their particular problem. Since results for historical conditions indicate that model outputs can have significant biases associated with them, the range in future projections examined in terms of change relative to historical conditions for each individual GCM may be more appropriate.

Quantifying the effect of mixing on the mean age of air in CCMVal-2 and CCMI-1 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietmüller, Simone; Eichinger, Roland; Garny, Hella; Birner, Thomas; Boenisch, Harald; Pitari, Giovanni; Mancini, Eva; Visioni, Daniele; Stenke, Andrea; Revell, Laura; Rozanov, Eugene; Plummer, David A.; Scinocca, John; Jöckel, Patrick; Oman, Luke; Deushi, Makoto; Kiyotaka, Shibata; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Garcia, Rolando; Morgenstern, Olaf; Zeng, Guang; Stone, Kane Adam; Schofield, Robyn

2018-05-01

The stratospheric age of air (AoA) is a useful measure of the overall capabilities of a general circulation model (GCM) to simulate stratospheric transport. Previous studies have reported a large spread in the simulation of AoA by GCMs and coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Compared to observational estimates, simulated AoA is mostly too low. Here we attempt to untangle the processes that lead to the AoA differences between the models and between models and observations. AoA is influenced by both mean transport by the residual circulation and two-way mixing; we quantify the effects of these processes using data from the CCM inter-comparison projects CCMVal-2 (Chemistry-Climate Model Validation Activity 2) and CCMI-1 (Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative, phase 1). Transport along the residual circulation is measured by the residual circulation transit time (RCTT). We interpret the difference between AoA and RCTT as additional aging by mixing. Aging by mixing thus includes mixing on both the resolved and subgrid scale. We find that the spread in AoA between the models is primarily caused by differences in the effects of mixing and only to some extent by differences in residual circulation strength. These effects are quantified by the mixing efficiency, a measure of the relative increase in AoA by mixing. The mixing efficiency varies strongly between the models from 0.24 to 1.02. We show that the mixing efficiency is not only controlled by horizontal mixing, but by vertical mixing and vertical diffusion as well. Possible causes for the differences in the models' mixing efficiencies are discussed. Differences in subgrid-scale mixing (including differences in advection schemes and model resolutions) likely contribute to the differences in mixing efficiency. However, differences in the relative contribution of resolved versus parameterized wave forcing do not appear to be related to differences in mixing efficiency or AoA.

What can we learn from simulating Stratospheric Sudden Warming periods with the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics GCM?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maute, A. I.; Hagan, M. E.; Roble, R. G.; Richmond, A. D.; Yudin, V. A.; Liu, H.; Goncharenko, L. P.; Burns, A. G.; Maruyama, N.

2013-12-01

The ionosphere-thermosphere system is not only influenced from geospace but also by meteorological variability. Ionospheric observations of GPS TEC during the current solar cycle have shown that the meteorological variability is important during solar minimum, but also can have significant ionospheric effects during solar medium to maximum conditions. Numerical models can be used to help understand the mechanisms that couple the lower and upper atmosphere over the solar cycle. Numerical modelers invoke different methods to simulate realistic, specified events of meteorological variability, e.g. specify the lower boundary forcing, nudge the middle atmosphere, data assimilation. To study the vertical coupling, we first need to assess the numerical models and the various methods used to simulate realistic events with respect to the dynamics of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) region, the electrodynamics, and the ionosphere. This study focuses on Stratospheric Sudden Warming (SSW) periods since these are associated with a strongly disturbed middle atmosphere which can have effects up to the ionosphere. We will use the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation model (TIME-GCM) to examine several recent SSW periods, e.g. 2009, 2012, and 2013. The SSW period in TIME-GCM will be specified in three different ways: 1. using reanalysis data to specify the lower boundary; 2. nudging the neutral atmosphere (temperature and winds) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM)/Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) results; 3. nudging the background atmosphere (temperature and winds) with WACCM/GEOS5 results. The different forcing methods will be evaluated for the SSW periods with respect to the dynamics of the MLT region, the low latitude vertical drift changes, and the ionospheric effects for the different SSW periods. With the help of ionospheric data at different longitudinal sectors it will be possible to assess the simulations of the SSW periods and provide guidance for future studies.

Evaluation of Stratospheric Transport in New 3D Models Using the Global Modeling Initiative Grading Criteria

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strahan, Susan E.; Douglass, Anne R.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Team developed objective criteria for model evaluation in order to identify the best representation of the stratosphere. This work created a method to quantitatively and objectively discriminate between different models. In the original GMI study, 3 different meteorological data sets were used to run an offline chemistry and transport model (CTM). Observationally-based grading criteria were derived and applied to these simulations and various aspects of stratospheric transport were evaluated; grades were assigned. Here we report on the application of the GMI evaluation criteria to CTM simulations integrated with a new assimilated wind data set and a new general circulation model (GCM) wind data set. The Finite Volume Community Climate Model (FV-CCM) is a new GCM developed at Goddard which uses the NCAR CCM physics and the Lin and Rood advection scheme. The FV-Data Assimilation System (FV-DAS) is a new data assimilation system which uses the FV-CCM as its core model. One year CTM simulations of 2.5 degrees longitude by 2 degrees latitude resolution were run for each wind data set. We present the evaluation of temperature and annual transport cycles in the lower and middle stratosphere in the two new CTM simulations. We include an evaluation of high latitude transport which was not part of the original GMI criteria. Grades for the new simulations will be compared with those assigned during the original GMT evaluations and areas of improvement will be identified.

Disentangling the uncertainty of hydrologic drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in continental river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini; Pechlivanidis, Illias; Breuer, Lutz; Wortmann, Michel; Vetter, Tobias; Flörke, Martina; Chamorro, Alejandro; Schäfer, David; Shah, Harsh; Zeng, Xiaofan

2016-04-01

The quantification of the predictive uncertainty in hydrologic models and their attribution to its main sources is of particular interest in climate change studies. In recent years, a number of studies have been aimed at assessing the ability of hydrologic models (HMs) to reproduce extreme hydrologic events. Disentangling the overall uncertainty of streamflow -including its derived low-flow characteristics- into individual contributions, stemming from forcings and model structure, has also been studied. Based on recent literature, it can be stated that there is a controversy with respect to which source is the largest (e.g., Teng, et al. 2012, Bosshard et al. 2013, Prudhomme et al. 2014). Very little has also been done to estimate the relative impact of the parametric uncertainty of the HMs with respect to overall uncertainty of low-flow characteristics. The ISI-MIP2 project provides a unique opportunity to understand the propagation of forcing and model structure uncertainties into century-long time series of drought characteristics. This project defines a consistent framework to deal with compatible initial conditions for the HMs and a set of standardized historical and future forcings. Moreover, the ensemble of hydrologic model predictions varies across a broad range of climate scenarios and regions. To achieve this goal, we use six preconditioned hydrologic models (HYPE or HBV, mHM, SWIM, VIC, and WaterGAP3) set up in seven large continental river basins: Amazon, Blue Nile, Ganges, Niger, Mississippi, Rhine, Yellow. These models are forced with bias-corrected outputs of five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCM) under four extreme representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2) for the period 1971-2099. Simulated streamflow is transformed into a monthly runoff index (RI) to analyze the attribution of the GCM and HM uncertainty into drought magnitude and duration over time. Uncertainty contributions are investigated during periods: 1) 2006-2035, 2) 2036-2065 and 3) 2070-2099. Results presented in Samaniego et al. 2015 (submitted) indicate that GCM uncertainty mostly dominates over HM uncertainty for predictions of runoff drought characteristics, irrespective of the selected RCP and region. For the mHM model, in particular, GCM uncertainty always dominates over parametric uncertainty. In general, the overall uncertainty increases with time. The larger the radiative forcing of the RCP, the larger the uncertainty in drought characteristics, however, the propagation of the GCM uncertainty onto a drought characteristic depends largely upon the hydro-climatic regime. While our study emphasizes the need for multi-model ensembles for the assessment of future drought projections, the agreement between GCM forcings is still weak to draw conclusive recommendations. References: L. Samaniego, R. Kumar, I. G. Pechlivanidis, L. Breuer, M. Wortmann, T. Vetter, M. Flörke, A. Chamorro, D. Schäfer, H. Shah, X. Zeng: Propagation of forcing and model uncertainty into hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in continental river basins. Submitted to Climatic Change on Dec 2015. Bosshard, et al. 2013. doi:10.1029/2011WR011533. Prudhomme et al. 2014, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222473110. Teng, et al. 2012, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-058.1.

The epistemological status of general circulation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loehle, Craig

2018-03-01

Forecasts of both likely anthropogenic effects on climate and consequent effects on nature and society are based on large, complex software tools called general circulation models (GCMs). Forecasts generated by GCMs have been used extensively in policy decisions related to climate change. However, the relation between underlying physical theories and results produced by GCMs is unclear. In the case of GCMs, many discretizations and approximations are made, and simulating Earth system processes is far from simple and currently leads to some results with unknown energy balance implications. Statistical testing of GCM forecasts for degree of agreement with data would facilitate assessment of fitness for use. If model results need to be put on an anomaly basis due to model bias, then both visual and quantitative measures of model fit depend strongly on the reference period used for normalization, making testing problematic. Epistemology is here applied to problems of statistical inference during testing, the relationship between the underlying physics and the models, the epistemic meaning of ensemble statistics, problems of spatial and temporal scale, the existence or not of an unforced null for climate fluctuations, the meaning of existing uncertainty estimates, and other issues. Rigorous reasoning entails carefully quantifying levels of uncertainty.

The influence of tropical heating displacements on the extratropical climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur Y.

1993-01-01

The hypothesis is advanced that a latitudinal shift in the tropical convective heating pattern can significantly alter temperatures in the extratropics. Results of a simplified general circulation model (GCM) show that the shift of a prescribed tropical heating toward the summer pole, on time scales longer than a few weeks, leads to a more intense cross-equatorial 'winter' Hadley circulation, enhanced upper-level tropical easterlies, and a slightly stronger subtropical winter jet, accompanied by warming at the winter middle and high latitudes as a result of increased dynamical heating. The indications are that there is a robust connection between the net dynamic heating in the extratropics and the implied changes in the subtropical wind shear resulting from adjustments in the Hadley circulation associated with convective heating displacements in the tropics. The implications are that (1) the low-frequency temporal variability in the Hadley circulation may play an important role in modulating wave transport in the winter extratropics, (2) the global climate may be sensitive to those processes that control deep cumulus convection in the tropics, and (3) systematic temperature biases in GCMs may be reduced by improving the tropical rainfall simulation.

A Model-Model and Data-Model Comparison for the Early Eocene Hydrological Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carmichael, Matthew J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Huber, Matthew; Heinemann, Malte; Kiehl, Jeffrey; LeGrande, Allegra; Loptson, Claire A.; Roberts, Chris D.; Sagoo, Navjit; Shields, Christine

2016-01-01

A range of proxy observations have recently provided constraints on how Earth's hydrological cycle responded to early Eocene climatic changes. However, comparisons of proxy data to general circulation model (GCM) simulated hydrology are limited and inter-model variability remains poorly characterised. In this work, we undertake an intercomparison of GCM-derived precipitation and P - E distributions within the extended EoMIP ensemble (Eocene Modelling Intercomparison Project; Lunt et al., 2012), which includes previously published early Eocene simulations performed using five GCMs differing in boundary conditions, model structure, and precipitation-relevant parameterisation schemes. We show that an intensified hydrological cycle, manifested in enhanced global precipitation and evaporation rates, is simulated for all Eocene simulations relative to the preindustrial conditions. This is primarily due to elevated atmospheric paleo-CO2, resulting in elevated temperatures, although the effects of differences in paleogeography and ice sheets are also important in some models. For a given CO2 level, globally averaged precipitation rates vary widely between models, largely arising from different simulated surface air temperatures. Models with a similar global sensitivity of precipitation rate to temperature (dP=dT ) display different regional precipitation responses for a given temperature change. Regions that are particularly sensitive to model choice include the South Pacific, tropical Africa, and the Peri-Tethys, which may represent targets for future proxy acquisition. A comparison of early and middle Eocene leaf-fossil-derived precipitation estimates with the GCM output illustrates that GCMs generally underestimate precipitation rates at high latitudes, although a possible seasonal bias of the proxies cannot be excluded. Models which warm these regions, either via elevated CO2 or by varying poorly constrained model parameter values, are most successful in simulating a match with geologic data. Further data from low-latitude regions and better constraints on early Eocene CO2 are now required to discriminate between these model simulations given the large error bars on paleoprecipitation estimates. Given the clear differences between simulated precipitation distributions within the ensemble, our results suggest that paleohydrological data offer an independent means by which to evaluate model skill for warm climates.

Mars' Annular Polar Vortices and their Response to Atmospheric Dust Opacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzewich, S.; Waugh, D.; Toigo, A. D.

2016-12-01

The potential vorticity structure of the martian polar vortices is distinct from Earth's stratospheric or tropospheric vortices. Rather than exhibiting monotonically increasing potential vorticity toward the geographic pole, as on Earth, the martian fall and winter polar vortices are annular with the potential vorticity maximum situated off the pole and a local minimum in potential vorticity at the pole. Using the MarsWRF general circulation model (GCM), we perform a series of simulations to examine the source of this annular structure. We find that latent heat exchange from the formation of CO2 ice aerosols within the vortex, in a region very near the geographic pole, destroys potential vorticity and creates the annular structure. Furthermore, we describe Mars Climate Sounder and Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations of "transient vortex warming" events, where the air inside the northern hemisphere winter polar vortex is briefly warmed. During the Mars Year 28 (2007) global dust storm, the temperature inside the vortex increased by 70 K and dust directly entered the vortex. Using additional GCM simulations, we diagnose the dynamical changes associated with these transient vortex warming events and find that poleward expansion of the descending branch of the meridional overturning circulation during periods of increased dust opacity disrupts the northern hemisphere winter polar vortex. These increased temperatures also suppress CO2 condensation at the pole, creating a more Earth-like polar vortex where potential vorticity is maximized near the geographic pole.

Importance of Including Topography in Numerical Simulations of Venus' Atmospheric Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parish, H. F.; Schubert, G.; Lebonnois, S.; Covey, C. C.; Walterscheid, R. L.; Grossman, A.

2012-12-01

Venus' atmosphere is characterized by strong superrotation, in which the wind velocities at cloud heights are around 60 times faster than the surface rotation rate. The reasons for this strong superrotation are still not well understood. Since the surface of the planet is both a source and sink of atmospheric angular momentum it is important to understand and properly account for the interactions at the surface-atmosphere boundary. A key aspect of the surface-atmosphere interaction is the topography. Topography has been introduced into different general circulation models (GCMs) of Venus' atmosphere, producing significant, but widely varying effects on the atmospheric circulation. The reasons for the inconsistencies among model results are not well known, but our studies suggest they might be related to the influences of different dynamical cores. In our recent study, we have analyzed the angular momentum budget for two Venus GCMs, the Venus Community Atmosphere model (Venus CAM) and the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD) Venus GCM. Because of Venus' low magnitude surface winds, surface friction alone supplies only a relatively weak angular momentum forcing to the atmosphere. We find that if surface friction is introduced without including surface topography, the angular momentum balance of the atmosphere may be dominated by effects such as numerical diffusion, a sponge layer, or other numerical residuals that are generally included in all GCMs, and can themselves be sources of angular momentum. However, we find the mountain torque associated with realistic Venus surface topography supplies a much larger source of angular momentum than the surface friction, and dominates nonphysical numerical terms. (A similar effect occurs for rapidly rotating planets like Earth, but in this case numerical errors in the angular momentum budget are relatively small even in the absence of mountain torque). Even if surface friction dominates numerical terms in the angular momentum budgets of simulations without realistic topography, it must be remembered that there are no observational constraints on model parameterizations of the real surface friction on Venus. It is essential for a planet such as Venus, for which surface friction alone supplies only weak angular momentum forcing, to include surface topography to generate realistic forcing of angular momentum and avoid the influences of numerical artifacts, which can be significant. Venus' topography, as mapped using measurements from the Magellan mission, shows significant hemispheric asymmetry. In this work we examine the impact of this asymmetry using simulations of Venus' circulation with and without topography, within the latest version of the Venus CAM GCM.

On the Vertical Distribution of Local and Remote Sources of Water for Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.

2001-01-01

The vertical distribution of local and remote sources of water for precipitation and total column water over the United States are evaluated in a general circulation model simulation. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model (GCM) includes passive constituent tracers to determine the geographical sources of the water in the column. Results show that the local percentage of precipitable water and local percentage of precipitation can be very different. The transport of water vapor from remote oceanic sources at mid and upper levels is important to the total water in the column over the central United States, while the access of locally evaporated water in convective precipitation processes is important to the local precipitation ratio. This result resembles the conceptual formulation of the convective parameterization. However, the formulations of simple models of precipitation recycling include the assumption that the ratio of the local water in the column is equal to the ratio of the local precipitation. The present results demonstrate the uncertainty in that assumption, as locally evaporated water is more concentrated near the surface.

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, L. C.; Kahana, R.; Graham, T.; Ringer, M. A.; Woollings, T.; Mecking, J. V.; Wood, R. A.

2015-12-01

The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe's landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.

Comparison of three ice cloud optical schemes in climate simulations with community atmospheric model version 5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Wenjie; Peng, Yiran; Wang, Bin; Yi, Bingqi; Lin, Yanluan; Li, Jiangnan

2018-05-01

A newly implemented Baum-Yang scheme for simulating ice cloud optical properties is compared with existing schemes (Mitchell and Fu schemes) in a standalone radiative transfer model and in the global climate model (GCM) Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (CAM5). This study systematically analyzes the effect of different ice cloud optical schemes on global radiation and climate by a series of simulations with a simplified standalone radiative transfer model, atmospheric GCM CAM5, and a comprehensive coupled climate model. Results from the standalone radiative model show that Baum-Yang scheme yields generally weaker effects of ice cloud on temperature profiles both in shortwave and longwave spectrum. CAM5 simulations indicate that Baum-Yang scheme in place of Mitchell/Fu scheme tends to cool the upper atmosphere and strengthen the thermodynamic instability in low- and mid-latitudes, which could intensify the Hadley circulation and dehydrate the subtropics. When CAM5 is coupled with a slab ocean model to include simplified air-sea interaction, reduced downward longwave flux to surface in Baum-Yang scheme mitigates ice-albedo feedback in the Arctic as well as water vapor and cloud feedbacks in low- and mid-latitudes, resulting in an overall temperature decrease by 3.0/1.4 °C globally compared with Mitchell/Fu schemes. Radiative effect and climate feedback of the three ice cloud optical schemes documented in this study can be referred for future improvements on ice cloud simulation in CAM5.

Development of Spatiotemporal Bias-Correction Techniques for Downscaling GCM Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hwang, S.; Graham, W. D.; Geurink, J.; Adams, A.; Martinez, C. J.

2010-12-01

Accurately representing the spatial variability of precipitation is an important factor for predicting watershed response to climatic forcing, particularly in small, low-relief watersheds affected by convective storm systems. Although Global Circulation Models (GCMs) generally preserve spatial relationships between large-scale and local-scale mean precipitation trends, most GCM downscaling techniques focus on preserving only observed temporal variability on point by point basis, not spatial patterns of events. Downscaled GCM results (e.g., CMIP3 ensembles) have been widely used to predict hydrologic implications of climate variability and climate change in large snow-dominated river basins in the western United States (Diffenbaugh et al., 2008; Adam et al., 2009). However fewer applications to smaller rain-driven river basins in the southeastern US (where preserving spatial variability of rainfall patterns may be more important) have been reported. In this study a new method was developed to bias-correct GCMs to preserve both the long term temporal mean and variance of the precipitation data, and the spatial structure of daily precipitation fields. Forty-year retrospective simulations (1960-1999) from 16 GCMs were collected (IPCC, 2007; WCRP CMIP3 multi-model database: https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/), and the daily precipitation data at coarse resolution (i.e., 280km) were interpolated to 12km spatial resolution and bias corrected using gridded observations over the state of Florida (Maurer et al., 2002; Wood et al, 2002; Wood et al, 2004). In this method spatial random fields which preserved the observed spatial correlation structure of the historic gridded observations and the spatial mean corresponding to the coarse scale GCM daily rainfall were generated. The spatiotemporal variability of the spatio-temporally bias-corrected GCMs were evaluated against gridded observations, and compared to the original temporally bias-corrected and downscaled CMIP3 data for the central Florida. The hydrologic response of two southwest Florida watersheds to the gridded observation data, the original bias corrected CMIP3 data, and the new spatiotemporally corrected CMIP3 predictions was compared using an integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model developed by Tampa Bay Water.

NIR-driven Moist Upper Atmospheres of Synchronously Rotating Temperate Terrestrial Exoplanets

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fujii, Yuka; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Amundsen, David S.

H{sub 2}O is a key molecule in characterizing atmospheres of temperate terrestrial planets, and observations of transmission spectra are expected to play a primary role in detecting its signatures in the near future. The detectability of H{sub 2}O absorption features in transmission spectra depends on the abundance of water vapor in the upper part of the atmosphere. We study the three-dimensional distribution of atmospheric H{sub 2}O for synchronously rotating Earth-sized aquaplanets using the general circulation model (GCM) ROCKE-3D, and examine the effects of total incident flux and stellar spectral type. We observe a more gentle increase of the water vapormore » mixing ratio in response to increased incident flux than one-dimensional models suggest, in qualitative agreement with the climate-stabilizing effect of clouds around the substellar point previously observed in GCMs applied to synchronously rotating planets. However, the water vapor mixing ratio in the upper atmosphere starts to increase while the surface temperature is still moderate. This is explained by the circulation in the upper atmosphere being driven by the radiative heating due to absorption by water vapor and cloud particles, causing efficient vertical transport of water vapor. Consistently, the water vapor mixing ratio is found to be well-correlated with the near-infrared portion of the incident flux. We also simulate transmission spectra based on the GCM outputs, and show that for the more highly irradiated planets, the H{sub 2}O signatures may be strengthened by a factor of a few, loosening the observational demands for a H{sub 2}O detection.« less

Developing a global mixed-canopy, height-variable vegetation structure dataset for estimating global vegetation albedo by a clumped canopy radiative transfer scheme in the NASA Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model and GISS GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montes, Carlo; Kiang, Nancy Y.; Ni-Meister, Wenge; Yang, Wenze; Schaaf, Crystal; Aleinov, Igor; Jonas, Jeffrey A.; Zhao, Feng; Yao, Tian; Wang, Zhuosen; Sun, Qingsong; Carrer, Dominique

2016-04-01

Processes determining biosphere-atmosphere coupling are strongly influenced by vegetation structure. Thus, ecosystem carbon sequestration and evapotranspiration affecting global carbon and water balances will depend upon the spatial extent of vegetation, its vertical structure, and its physiological variability. To represent this globally, Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) coupled to General Circulation Models (GCMs) make use of satellite and/or model-based vegetation classifications often composed by homogeneous communities. This work aims at developing a new Global Vegetation Structure Dataset (GVSD) by incorporating varying vegetation heights for mixed plant communities to be used as boundary conditions to the Analytical Clumped Two-Stream (ACTS) canopy radiative transfer scheme (Ni-Meister et al., 2010) incorporated into the NASA Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (TBM), the DGVM coupled to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM. Information sources about land surface and vegetation characteristics obtained from a number of earth observation platforms and algorithms include the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land cover and plant functional types (PFTs) (Friedl et al., 2010), soil albedo derived from MODIS (Carrer et al., 2014), along with vegetation height from the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on board ICESat (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite) (Simard et al., 2011; Tang et al., 2014). Three widely used Leaf Area Index (LAI) products are compared as input to the GVSD and ACTS forcing in terms of vegetation albedo: Global Data Sets of Vegetation (LAI)3g (Zhu et al. 2013), Beijing Normal University LAI (Yuan et al., 2011), and MODIS MOD15A2H product (Yang et al., 2006). Further PFT partitioning is performed according to a climate classification utilizing the Climate Research Unit (CRU; Harris et al., 2013) and the NOAA Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC; Scheider et al., 2014) data. Final products are a GVSD consisting of mixed plant communities (e.g. mixed forests, savannas, mixed PFTs) following the Ecosystem Demography model (Moorcroft et al., 2001) approach represented by multi-cohort community patches at the sub-grid level of the GCM, which are ensembles of identical individuals whose differences are represented by PFTs, canopy height, density and vegetation structure sensitivity to allometric parameters. The performance of the Ent TBM in estimating VIS-NIR vegetation albedo by the new GVSD and ACTS is assessed first by comparison against the previous GISS GCM vegetation classification and prescribed Lambertian albedoes of Matthews (1984), and secondly, against MODIS global estimations and FLUXNET site-scale observations. Ultimately, this GVSD will serve as a template for community data sets, and be used as boundary conditions to the Ent TBM for prediction of biomass, carbon balances and GISS GCM climate.

Effects of land cover change on the tropical circulation in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jonko, Alexandra Karolina; Hense, Andreas; Feddema, Johannes Jan

2010-09-01

Multivariate statistics are used to investigate sensitivity of the tropical atmospheric circulation to scenario-based global land cover change (LCC), with the largest changes occurring in the tropics. Three simulations performed with the fully coupled Parallel Climate Model (PCM) are compared: (1) a present day control run; (2) a simulation with present day land cover and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 greenhouse gas (GHG) projections; and (3) a simulation with SRES A2 land cover and GHG projections. Dimensionality of PCM data is reduced by projection onto a priori specified eigenvectors, consisting of Rossby and Kelvin waves produced by a linearized, reduced gravity model of the tropical circulation. A Hotelling T 2 test is performed on projection amplitudes. Effects of LCC evaluated by this method are limited to diabatic heating. A statistically significant and recurrent signal is detected for 33% of all tests performed for various combinations of parameters. Taking into account uncertainties and limitations of the present methodology, this signal can be interpreted as a Rossby wave response to prescribed LCC. The Rossby waves are shallow, large-scale motions, trapped at the equator and most pronounced in boreal summer. Differences in mass and flow fields indicate a shift of the tropical Walker circulation patterns with an anomalous subsidence over tropical South America.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Diagnostic Codes Catalogue – metrics, diagnostics and methodologies to evaluate, understand and improve the representation of clouds and cloud feedbacks in climate models

DOE PAGES

Tsushima, Yoko; Brient, Florent; Klein, Stephen A.; ...

2017-11-27

The CFMIP Diagnostic Codes Catalogue assembles cloud metrics, diagnostics and methodologies, together with programs to diagnose them from general circulation model (GCM) outputs written by various members of the CFMIP community. This aims to facilitate use of the diagnostics by the wider community studying climate and climate change. Here, this paper describes the diagnostics and metrics which are currently in the catalogue, together with examples of their application to model evaluation studies and a summary of some of the insights these diagnostics have provided into the main shortcomings in current GCMs. Analysis of outputs from CFMIP and CMIP6 experiments willmore » also be facilitated by the sharing of diagnostic codes via this catalogue. Any code which implements diagnostics relevant to analysing clouds – including cloud–circulation interactions and the contribution of clouds to estimates of climate sensitivity in models – and which is documented in peer-reviewed studies, can be included in the catalogue. We very much welcome additional contributions to further support community analysis of CMIP6 outputs.« less

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Diagnostic Codes Catalogue – metrics, diagnostics and methodologies to evaluate, understand and improve the representation of clouds and cloud feedbacks in climate models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tsushima, Yoko; Brient, Florent; Klein, Stephen A.

The CFMIP Diagnostic Codes Catalogue assembles cloud metrics, diagnostics and methodologies, together with programs to diagnose them from general circulation model (GCM) outputs written by various members of the CFMIP community. This aims to facilitate use of the diagnostics by the wider community studying climate and climate change. Here, this paper describes the diagnostics and metrics which are currently in the catalogue, together with examples of their application to model evaluation studies and a summary of some of the insights these diagnostics have provided into the main shortcomings in current GCMs. Analysis of outputs from CFMIP and CMIP6 experiments willmore » also be facilitated by the sharing of diagnostic codes via this catalogue. Any code which implements diagnostics relevant to analysing clouds – including cloud–circulation interactions and the contribution of clouds to estimates of climate sensitivity in models – and which is documented in peer-reviewed studies, can be included in the catalogue. We very much welcome additional contributions to further support community analysis of CMIP6 outputs.« less

Observed Screen (Air) and GCM Surface/Screen Temperatures: Implications for Outgoing Longwave Fluxes at the Surface.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garratt, J. R.

1995-05-01

There is direct evidence that excess net radiation calculated in general circulation models at continental surfaces [of about 11-17 W m2 (20%-27%) on an annual ~1 is not only due to overestimates in annual incoming shortwave fluxes [of 9-18 W m2 (6%-9%)], but also to underestimates in outgoing longwave fluxes. The bias in the outgoing longwave flux is deduced from a comparison of screen-air temperature observations, available as a global climatology of mean monthly values, and model-calculated surface and screen-air temperatures. An underestimate in the screen temperature computed in general circulation models over continents, of about 3 K on an annual basis, implies an underestimate in the outgoing longwave flux, averaged in six models under study, of 11-15 W m2 (3%-4%). For a set of 22 inland stations studied previously, the residual bias on an annual basis (the residual is the net radiation minus incoming shortwave plus outgoing longwave) varies between 18 and 23 W m2 for the models considered. Additional biases in one or both of the reflected shortwave and incoming longwave components cannot be ruled out.

Nonlinear Advection of Tropospheric Humidity and Cloud and Evaporation Feedbacks in the Madden-Julian Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sugiyama, M.; Emanuel, K.; Stone, P.

2006-05-01

Despite active research on the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), general circulation models (GCMs) continue to suffer from poor simulations of this tropical intraseasonal variability, and the theory on the MJO remains elusive. To assist model development and deepen our understanding, we develop a simple new model of the MJO, using the Quasiequilibrium Tropical Circulation Model of Neelin and Zeng. The MJO-like disturbance develops as a single-column instability because of cloud-radiative and surface flux feedbacks, a mechanism identified by Sobel and Gildor in their study on a tropical hot spot. Two processes contribute to the eastward movement: Nonlinear advection of the tropospheric humidity to the west, and convergence-induced moistening to the east. The key to the model disturbance is the interplay between tropospheric humidity and precipitation, moisture-convection feedback. As the humidity field propagates eastward by advection and convergence-induced moistening, the precipitation field follows. This study points to possible research areas on GCM parameterizations: 1) the effect of tropospheric humidity on moist convection; 2) the impact of downdraft-enhanced gustiness on surface heat flux; and 3) relationship between precipitation and cloud-radiative forcing.

GCM simulations of volcanic aerosol forcing. I - Climate changes induced by steady-state perturbations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pollack, James B.; Rind, David; Lacis, Andrew; Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Ruedy, Reto

1993-01-01

The response of the climate system to a temporally and spatially constant amount of volcanic particles is simulated using a general circulation model (GCM). The optical depth of the aerosols is chosen so as to produce approximately the same amount of forcing as results from doubling the present CO2 content of the atmosphere and from the boundary conditions associated with the peak of the last ice age. The climate changes produced by long-term volcanic aerosol forcing are obtained by differencing this simulation and one made for the present climate with no volcanic aerosol forcing. The simulations indicate that a significant cooling of the troposphere and surface can occur at times of closely spaced multiple sulfur-rich volcanic explosions that span time scales of decades to centuries. The steady-state climate response to volcanic forcing includes a large expansion of sea ice, especially in the Southern Hemisphere; a resultant large increase in surface and planetary albedo at high latitudes; and sizable changes in the annually and zonally averaged air temperature.

Water Vapor Tacers as Diagnostics of the Regional Atmospheric Hydrologic Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Understanding of the local and remote sources of water vapor can be a valuable diagnostic in understanding the regional atmospheric hydrologic cycle, especially in North America where moisture transport and local evaporation are important sources of water for precipitation. In the present study, we have implemented passive tracers as prognostic variables to follow water vapor evaporated in predetermined regions until the water tracer precipitates. All evaporative sources of water are accounted for by tracers, and the water vapor variable provides the validation of the tracer water and the formulation of the sources and sinks. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites General Circulation Model (GEOS GCM) is used to simulate several summer periods to determine the source regions of precipitation for the United States and India. Using this methodology, a detailed analysis of the recycling of water, interannual variability of the sources of water and links to the Great Plains low-level jet and North American monsoon will be presented. Potential uses in GCM sensitivity studies, predictability studies and data assimilation especially regarding the North American monsoon and GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP) will be discussed.

GCM Simulations of Titan's Paleoclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lora, Juan M.; Lunine, Jonathan; Russell, Joellen; Hayes, Alexander

2014-11-01

The hemispheric asymmetry observed in the distribution of Titan's lakes and seas has been suggested to be the result of asymmetric seasonal forcing, where a relative moistening of the north occurs in the current epoch due to its longer and less intense summers. General circulation models (GCMs) of present-day Titan have also shown that the atmosphere transports methane away from the equator. In this work, we use a Titan GCM to investigate the effects that changes in Titan's effective orbital parameters have had on its climate in recent geologic history. The simulations show that the climate is relatively insensitive to changes in orbital parameters, with persistently dry low latitudes and wet polar regions. The amount of surface methane that builds up over either pole depends on the insolation distribution, confirming the influence of orbital forcing on the distribution of surface liquids. The evolution of the orbital forcing implies that the surface reservoir must be transported on timescales of ~30 kyr, in which case the asymmetry reverses with a period of ~125 kyr. Otherwise, the orbital forcing is insufficient for generating the observed dichotomy.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendonça, João M.; Grimm, Simon L.; Grosheintz, Luc

We have designed and developed, from scratch, a global circulation model (GCM) named THOR that solves the three-dimensional nonhydrostatic Euler equations. Our general approach lifts the commonly used assumptions of a shallow atmosphere and hydrostatic equilibrium. We solve the “pole problem” (where converging meridians on a sphere lead to increasingly smaller time steps near the poles) by implementing an icosahedral grid. Irregularities in the grid, which lead to grid imprinting, are smoothed using the “spring dynamics” technique. We validate our implementation of spring dynamics by examining calculations of the divergence and gradient of test functions. To prevent the computational timemore » step from being bottlenecked by having to resolve sound waves, we implement a split-explicit method together with a horizontally explicit and vertically implicit integration. We validate our GCM by reproducing the Earth and hot-Jupiter-like benchmark tests. THOR was designed to run on graphics processing units (GPUs), which allows for physics modules (radiative transfer, clouds, chemistry) to be added in the future, and is part of the open-source Exoclimes Simulation Platform (www.exoclime.org).« less

Planetary Wave-Tide Interactions in Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling, Xiaoli Zhang, Jeffrey M. Forbes, Astrid Maute, and Maura E. Hagan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Forbes, J. M.; Maute, A. I.

2017-12-01

Planetary Wave-Tide Interactions in Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling Xiaoli Zhang, Jeffrey M. Forbes, Astrid Maute, and Maura E. Hagan The existence of secondary waves in the mesosphere and thermosphere due to nonlinear interactions between atmospheric tides and longer-period waves have been revealed in both satellite data and in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The longer-period waves include the quasi-2-day and 6-day westward-propagating "normal modes" of the atmosphere, and eastward-propagating ultra-fast Kelvin waves with periods between 2 and 4 days. The secondary waves add to both the temporal and longitude variability of the atmosphere beyond that associated with the linear superposition of the interacting waves, thus adding "complexity" to the system. Based on our knowledge of the processes governing atmosphere-ionosphere interactions, similar revelations are expected to occur in electric fields, vertical plasma drifts and F-region electron densities. Towards this end, examples of such ionospheric manifestations of wave-wave interactions in TIE-GCM simulations will be presented.

Relative role of pre-monsoon conditions and intraseasonal oscillations in determining early-vs-late indian monsoon intensity in a GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghosh, Rohit; Chakraborty, Arindam; Nanjundiah, Ravi S.

2018-01-01

The aim of this paper is to identify relative roles of different land-atmospheric conditions, apart from sea surface temperature (SST), in determining early vs. late summer monsoon intensity over India in a high resolution general circulation model (GCM). We find that in its early phase (June-July; JJ), pre-monsoon land-atmospheric processes play major role to modulate the precipitation over Indian region. These effects of pre-monsoon conditions decrease substantially during its later phase (August-September; AS) for which the interannual variation is mainly governed by the low frequency northward propagating intraseasonal oscillations. This intraseasonal variability which is related to mean vertical wind shear has a significant role during the early phase of monsoon as well. Further, using multiple linear regression, we show that interannual variation of early and late monsoon rainfall over India is best explained when all these land-atmospheric parameters are taken together. Our study delineates the relative role of different processes affecting early versus later summer monsoon rainfall over India that can be used for determining its subseasonal predictability.

Modelling of Titan's middle atmosphere with the IPSL climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vatant d'Ollone, Jan; Lebonnois, Sébastien; Guerlet, Sandrine

2017-04-01

Titan's 3-dimensional Global Climate Model developed at the Institute Pierre-Simon Laplace has already demonstrated its efficiency to reproduce and interpret many features of the Saturnian moon's climate (e.g. Lebonnois et al., 2012). However, it suffered from limits at the top of the model, with temperatures far warmer than the observations and no stratopause simulated. To interpret Cassini's overall observations of seasonal effects in the middle atmosphere (e.g. Vinatier et al., 2015), a satisfying modelling of the temperature profile in this region was first required. Latest developments in the GCM now enable a correct modelling of the temperature profile in the middle atmosphere. In particular, a new, more flexible, radiative transfer scheme based on correlated-k method has been set up, using up-to-date spectroscopic data. Special emphasis is put on the too warm upper stratospheric temperatures in the former model that were due to the absence of the infrared ν4 methane line (7.7 μm) in the radiative transfer. While it was usually neglected in the tropospheric radiative models, this line has a strong cooling effect in Titan's stratospheric conditions and cannot be neglected. In this new version of the GCM, the microphysical model is temporarily switched off and we use a mean profile for haze opacity (Lavvas et al., 2010). The circulation in the middle atmosphere is significantly improved by this new radiative transfer. The new 3-D simulations also show an interesting feature in the modeled vertical profile of the zonal wind as the minimum in low stratosphere is now closer to the observations. Works in progress such as the vertical extension and the computation of the radiative effect of the seasonal variations of trace components will also be presented. - Lavvas P. et al., 2010. Titan's vertical aerosol structure at the Huygens landing site: Constraints on particle size, density, charge, and refractive index. Icarus 210, 832-842. - Lebonnois S. et al., 2012. Titan Global Climate Model: new 3-dimensional version of the IPSL Titan GCM. Icarus 218, 707-722. - Vinatier S. et al., 2015. Seasonal variations in Titan's middle atmosphere during the northern spring derived from Cassini/CIRS observations. Icarus 250, 95-115.

Using a GCM analogue model to investigate the potential for Amazonian forest dieback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huntingford, C.; Harris, P. P.; Gedney, N.; Cox, P. M.; Betts, R. A.; Marengo, J. A.; Gash, J. H. C.

A combined GCM analogue model and GCM land surface representation is used to investigate the influences of climatology and land surface parameterisation on modelled Amazonian vegetation change. This modelling structure (called IMOGEN) captures the main features of the changes in surface climate as estimated by a GCM with enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Advantage is taken of IMOGEN's computational speed which allows multiple simulations to be carried out to assess the robustness of the GCM results. The timing of forest dieback is found to be sensitive to the initial ``pre-industrial'' climate, as well as uncertainties in the representation of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. Changing from a Q10 form for plant dark and maintanence respiration (as used in the coupled GCM runs) to a respiration proportional to maximum photosynthesis, reduces the biomass lost from Amazonia in the 21st century. Replacing the GCM control climate (which has about 25% too little rain in the annual mean over Amazonia) with an observed climatology increases the CO2 concentration at which rainfall drops to critical levels, and thereby further delays the dieback. On the other hand, calibration of the canopy photosynthesis model against Amazonian flux data tends to lead to earlier forest dieback. Further advances are required in both GCM rainfall simulation and land-surface process representation before a clearer picture will emerge on the timing of possible Amazonian forest dieback. However, it seems likely that these advances will overall lead to projections of later forest dieback as GCM control climates become more realistic.

Bringing a Realistic Global Climate Modeling Experience to a Broader Audience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohl, L. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Zhou, J.

2010-12-01

EdGCM, the Educational Global Climate Model, was developed with the goal of helping students learn about climate change and climate modeling by giving them the ability to run a genuine NASA global climate model (GCM) on a desktop computer. Since EdGCM was first publicly released in January 2005, tens of thousands of users on seven continents have downloaded the software. EdGCM has been utilized by climate science educators from middle school through graduate school levels, and on occasion even by researchers who otherwise do not have ready access to climate model at national labs in the U.S. and elsewhere. The EdGCM software is designed to walk users through the same process a climate scientist would use in designing and running simulations, and analyzing and visualizing GCM output. Although the current interface design gives users a clear view of some of the complexities involved in using a climate model, it can be daunting for users whose main focus is on climate science rather than modeling per se. As part of the work funded by NASA’s Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) program, we will begin modifications to the user interface that will improve the accessibility of EdGCM to a wider array of users, especially at the middle school and high school levels, by: 1) Developing an automated approach (a “wizard”) to simplify the user experience in setting up new climate simulations; 2) Produce a catalog of “rediscovery experiments” that allow users to reproduce published climate model results, and in some cases compare model projections to real world data; and 3) Enhance distance learning and online learning opportunities through the development of a web-based interface. The prototypes for these modifications will then be presented to educators belonging to an EdGCM Users Group for feedback, so that we can further refine the EdGCM software, and thus deliver the tools and materials educators want and need across a wider range of learning environments.

Final Technical Report for "High-resolution global modeling of the effects of subgrid-scale clouds and turbulence on precipitating cloud systems"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Larson, Vincent

2016-11-25

The Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) embeds a cloud-resolving model in each grid column of a General Circulation Model (GCM). A MMF model does not need to use a deep convective parameterization, and thereby dispenses with the uncertainties in such parameterizations. However, MMF models grossly under-resolve shallow boundary-layer clouds, and hence those clouds may still benefit from parameterization. In this grant, we successfully created a climate model that embeds a cloud parameterization (“CLUBB”) within a MMF model. This involved interfacing CLUBB’s clouds with microphysics and reducing computational cost. We have evaluated the resulting simulated clouds and precipitation with satellite observations. Themore » chief benefit of the project is to provide a MMF model that has an improved representation of clouds and that provides improved simulations of precipitation.« less

Exploring diurnal and seasonal characteristics of global carbon cycle with GISS Model E2 GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aleinov, I. D.; Kiang, N. Y.; Romanou, A.

2017-12-01

The ability to properly model surface carbon fluxes on the diurnal and seasonal time scale is a necessary requirement for understanding of the global carbon cycle. It is also one of the most challenging tasks faced by modern General Circulation Models (GCMs) due to complexity of the algorithms and variety of relevant spatial and temporal scales. The observational data, though abundant, is difficult to interpret at the global scale, because flux tower observations are very sparse for large impact areas (such as Amazon and African rainforest and most of Siberia) and satellite missions often struggle to produce sufficiently high confidence data over the land and may be missing CO2 amounts near the surface due to the nature of the method. In this work we use the GISS Model E2 GCM to perform a subset of experiments proposed by the Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) and relate the results to available observations.The GISS Model E2 GCM is currently equipped with a complete global carbon cycle algorithm. Its surface carbon fluxes are computed by the Ent Terrestrial Biosphere Model (Ent TBM) over the land with observed leaf area index of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) and by the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) over the ocean. The propagation of atmospheric CO2 is performed by a generic Model E2 tracer algorithm, which is based on a quadratic upstream method (Prather 1986). We perform a series spin-up experiments for preindustrial climate conditions and fixed preindustrial atmospheric CO2 concentration. First, we perform separate spin-up simulations each for terrestrial and ocean carbon. We then combine the spun-up states and perform a coupled spin-up simulation until the model reaches a sufficient equilibrium. We then release restrictions on CO2 concentration and allow it evolve freely, driven only by simulated surface fluxes. We then study the results of the unforced run, comparing the amplitude and the phase of diurnal and seasonal variation of atmospheric CO2 concentration to selected flux tower observations and OCO-2 satellite datasets.

The contribution of natural variability to GCM bias: Can we effectively bias-correct climate projections?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McAfee, S. A.; DeLaFrance, A.

2017-12-01

Investigating the impacts of climate change often entails using projections from inherently imperfect general circulation models (GCMs) to drive models that simulate biophysical or societal systems in great detail. Error or bias in the GCM output is often assessed in relation to observations, and the projections are adjusted so that the output from impacts models can be compared to historical or observed conditions. Uncertainty in the projections is typically accommodated by running more than one future climate trajectory to account for differing emissions scenarios, model simulations, and natural variability. The current methods for dealing with error and uncertainty treat them as separate problems. In places where observed and/or simulated natural variability is large, however, it may not be possible to identify a consistent degree of bias in mean climate, blurring the lines between model error and projection uncertainty. Here we demonstrate substantial instability in mean monthly temperature bias across a suite of GCMs used in CMIP5. This instability is greatest in the highest latitudes during the cool season, where shifts from average temperatures below to above freezing could have profound impacts. In models with the greatest degree of bias instability, the timing of regional shifts from below to above average normal temperatures in a single climate projection can vary by about three decades, depending solely on the degree of bias assessed. This suggests that current bias correction methods based on comparison to 20- or 30-year normals may be inappropriate, particularly in the polar regions.

Design for and efficient dynamic climate model with realistic geography

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Suarez, M. J.; Abeles, J.

1984-01-01

The long term climate sensitivity which include realistic atmospheric dynamics are severely restricted by the expense of integrating atmospheric general circulation models are discussed. Taking as an example models used at GSFC for this dynamic model is an alternative which is of much lower horizontal or vertical resolution. The model of Heid and Suarez uses only two levels in the vertical and, although it has conventional grid resolution in the meridional direction, horizontal resolution is reduced by keeping only a few degrees of freedom in the zonal wavenumber spectrum. Without zonally asymmetric forcing this model simulates a day in roughly 1/2 second on a CRAY. The model under discussion is a fully finite differenced, zonally asymmetric version of the Heid-Suarez model. It is anticipated that speeds can be obtained a few seconds a day roughly 50 times faster than moderate resolution, multilayer GCM's.

Sq Currents and Neutral Winds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamazaki, Y.

2015-12-01

The relationship between ionospheric dynamo currents and neutral winds is examined using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM). The simulation is run for May and June 2009 with variable neutral winds but with constant solar and magnetospheric energy inputs, which ensures that day-to-day changes in the solar quiet (Sq) current system arise only from lower atmospheric forcing. The intensity and focus position of the simulated Sq current system exhibit large day-to-day variability, as is also seen in ground magnetometer data. We show how the day-to-day variation of the Sq current system relate to variable winds at various altitudes, latitudes, and longitudes.

Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Modeling Using the TIME-GCM

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

respectively. The CCM3 is the NCAR Community Climate Model, Version 3.6, a GCM of the troposphere and stratosphere. All models include self-consistent...middle atmosphere version of the NCAR Community Climate Model, (2) the NCAR TIME-GCM, and (3) the Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers (MOZART... troposphere , but the impacts of such events extend well into the mesosphere. The coupled NCAR thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere- electrodynamics general

Four-Dimensional Oceanic and Atmosperic Data Assimilation with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Takano, Kenji

1996-01-01

An oceanic data assimilation system which allows to utilize the forthcoming Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data has been developed and applied to the Pacific Ocean to produce the velocity field. The assimilated data will be indispensable to examine the effects of rainfall and its variability on the structure and circulation of the tropical oceans and to assess the impact of global warming due to the increase of carbon dioxide on the ocean circulation system and the marine pollution caused by oil spill and ocean damping of radionuclide. The data will also provide the verification for the oceanic and ocean-atmosphere coupled General Circulation Models (GCM's). The system consists of oceanic GCM, analysis scheme and data. In the system the flow field has been determined to be physically consistent with the observed density field and the sea surface winds derived from the Special Sensor Microwave Imagery (SSM/I) data which drive the ocean current. The time integration has been performed for five years until the flow field near the surface attained the steady state starting from the rest ocean with observed temperature and salinity fields, and the SSM/I surface wind velocity. The resultant flow field showed high producibility of the system. Especially the flow near the ocean surface agreed well with available observed data. The system, for the first time, succeeded to produce the eastward subtropical current which has been discovered in the joint investigation on Kuroshio current (CSK) in the 1960s. To verify the quality of the flow field a trajectory analysis has been carried out and compared with the Algos buoy data. BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM ## Oceanic GCM and analysis scheme--The basic equations are much the same as used for the GCM's, except for the Newtonian damping terms introduced into the prediction equations for the potential temperature and salinity to maintain these fields as observed. The C grid of 2'lat. by 2'long. in horizontal and the 11 vertical levels are applied to the entire Pacific Ocean. At the east and west ocean boundaries the periodic boundary conditions are applied creating fictitious ocean there. The SMAC Method is used to increase the accuracy of mass conservation. * Data--The JODC temperature and salinity data obtained from 1906 to 1988 are used in the system between Long.100'E. and 60'W. The surface wind data are derived from the SSM/I data by Dr-R. Atlas of NASA/GSFC. The data set contains every 6 hours data from July 1987 to June 1989 on the grid of 2'lat. by 2.5'long. The averaged for the whole period and then interpolated into the 2'lat. by 2'long. grid data are used to force the system. The sea bottom topography data was based on the General Bathymetric Chart of the Ocean (GEBCO) supplied by the Canadian Hydrographic Service under contract with the International Hydrographic Organization and International Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO.

A serosa-searing apparatus for producing gastric ulcer in rats.

PubMed

Kagoshima, M; Suzuki, T; Katagiri, S; Shimada, H

1994-12-01

Chronic ulcer models produced by serosa-searing method are very similar histologically to the ulcer healing process occurring in humans. In an effort to produce a serosa-searing chronic ulcer model in rats, we devised a new balance-type apparatus. This searing apparatus is capable of changing adequately both temperature and duration of time. Furthermore, the pressure which serves to bring the searing iron tip into contact with the stomach serosa surface can also be precisely changed. Optimal conditions for reproducing the serosa-searing ulcer model were at 65 degrees C and in 5 sec. Moreover, in order to evaluate the effects of pressure, various pressure levels (A: 5 g, 17.68 g/cm2; B: 10 g, 35.37 g/cm2; C: 15 g, 53.05 g/cm2; D: 20 g, 70.74 g/cm2; E: 25 g, 88.42 g/cm2; F: 30 g, 106.10 g/cm2; G: 35 g, 123.79 g/cm2 (+/- 1 g, 0.149 g/cm2)) of 5-sec duration at 65 +/- 0.1 degrees C were used. Macroscopically, gastric mucosal lesions were most clearly observed in a pressure-related manner 7 days after the procedure. Histologically, definite deep ulcerations (UI-III or UI-IV) were observed at pressure level C (15 g, 53.05 g/cm2) or more. The highest incidence (87%) of histological gastric ulcers (UI-IV) was observed in pressure level E (25 g, 88.42 g/cm2). The healing process was observed at 40 to 60 days postoperatively. At 100 days after the procedure, recurrences were observed both macroscopically and histologically. In conclusion, this new apparatus is very useful for reproducing a chronic ulcer model for observing the healing and recurrence process.

Hydrological and associated biogeochemical consequences of rapid global warming during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmichael, Matthew J.; Inglis, Gordon N.; Badger, Marcus P. S.; Naafs, B. David A.; Behrooz, Leila; Remmelzwaal, Serginio; Monteiro, Fanny M.; Rohrssen, Megan; Farnsworth, Alexander; Buss, Heather L.; Dickson, Alexander J.; Valdes, Paul J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pancost, Richard D.

2017-10-01

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) hyperthermal, 56 million years ago (Ma), is the most dramatic example of abrupt Cenozoic global warming. During the PETM surface temperatures increased between 5 and 9 °C and the onset likely took < 20 kyr. The PETM provides a case study of the impacts of rapid global warming on the Earth system, including both hydrological and associated biogeochemical feedbacks, and proxy data from the PETM can provide constraints on changes in warm climate hydrology simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). In this paper, we provide a critical review of biological and geochemical signatures interpreted as direct or indirect indicators of hydrological change at the PETM, explore the importance of adopting multi-proxy approaches, and present a preliminary model-data comparison. Hydrological records complement those of temperature and indicate that the climatic response at the PETM was complex, with significant regional and temporal variability. This is further illustrated by the biogeochemical consequences of inferred changes in hydrology and, in fact, changes in precipitation and the biogeochemical consequences are often conflated in geochemical signatures. There is also strong evidence in many regions for changes in the episodic and/or intra-annual distribution of precipitation that has not widely been considered when comparing proxy data to GCM output. Crucially, GCM simulations indicate that the response of the hydrological cycle to the PETM was heterogeneous - some regions are associated with increased precipitation - evaporation (P - E), whilst others are characterised by a decrease. Interestingly, the majority of proxy data come from the regions where GCMs predict an increase in PETM precipitation. We propose that comparison of hydrological proxies to GCM output can be an important test of model skill, but this will be enhanced by further data from regions of model-simulated aridity and simulation of extreme precipitation events.

Projecting the future of an alpine ungulate under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

White, Kevin S; Gregovich, David P; Levi, Taal

2018-03-01

Climate change represents a primary threat to species persistence and biodiversity at a global scale. Cold adapted alpine species are especially sensitive to climate change and can offer key "early warning signs" about deleterious effects of predicted change. Among mountain ungulates, survival, a key determinant of demographic performance, may be influenced by future climate in complex, and possibly opposing ways. Demographic data collected from 447 mountain goats in 10 coastal Alaska, USA, populations over a 37-year time span indicated that survival is highest during low snowfall winters and cool summers. However, general circulation models (GCMs) predict future increase in summer temperature and decline in winter snowfall. To disentangle how these opposing climate-driven effects influence mountain goat populations, we developed an age-structured population model to project mountain goat population trajectories for 10 different GCM/emissions scenarios relevant for coastal Alaska. Projected increases in summer temperature had stronger negative effects on population trajectories than the positive demographic effects of reduced winter snowfall. In 5 of the 10 GCM/representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, the net effect of projected climate change was extinction over a 70-year time window (2015-2085); smaller initial populations were more likely to go extinct faster than larger populations. Using a resource selection modeling approach, we determined that distributional shifts to higher elevation (i.e., "thermoneutral") summer range was unlikely to be a viable behavioral adaptation strategy; due to the conical shape of mountains, summer range was expected to decline by 17%-86% for 7 of the 10 GCM/RCP scenarios. Projected declines of mountain goat populations are driven by climate-linked bottom-up mechanisms and may have wide ranging implications for alpine ecosystems. These analyses elucidate how projected climate change can negatively alter population dynamics of a sentinel alpine species and provide insight into how demographic modeling can be used to assess risk to species persistence. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Data-Conditioned Distributions of Groundwater Recharge Under Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, D.; Ng, G. C.; Entekhabi, D.; Scanlon, B.

2008-12-01

Groundwater recharge is likely to be impacted by climate change, with changes in precipitation amounts altering moisture availability and changes in temperature affecting evaporative demand. This could have major implications for sustainable aquifer pumping rates and contaminant transport into groundwater reservoirs in the future, thus making predictions of recharge under climate change very important. Unfortunately, in dry environments where groundwater resources are often most critical, low recharge rates are difficult to resolve due to high sensitivity to modeling and input errors. Some recent studies on climate change and groundwater have considered recharge using a suite of general circulation model (GCM) weather predictions, an obvious and key source of uncertainty. This work extends beyond those efforts by also accounting for uncertainty in other land-surface model inputs in a probabilistic manner. Recharge predictions are made using a range of GCM projections for a rain-fed cotton site in the semi-arid Southern High Plains region of Texas. Results showed that model simulations using a range of unconstrained literature-based parameter values produce highly uncertain and often misleading recharge rates. Thus, distributional recharge predictions are found using soil and vegetation parameters conditioned on current unsaturated zone soil moisture and chloride concentration observations; assimilation of observations is carried out with an ensemble importance sampling method. Our findings show that the predicted distribution shapes can differ for the various GCM conditions considered, underscoring the importance of probabilistic analysis over deterministic simulations. The recharge predictions indicate that the temporal distribution (over seasons and rain events) of climate change will be particularly critical for groundwater impacts. Overall, changes in recharge amounts and intensity were often more pronounced than changes in annual precipitation and temperature, thus suggesting high susceptibility of groundwater systems to future climate change. Our approach provides a probabilistic sensitivity analysis of recharge under potential climate changes, which will be critical for future management of water resources.

Does Dynamical Downscaling Introduce Novel Information in Climate Model Simulations of Recipitation Change over a Complex Topography Region?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tselioudis, George; Douvis, Costas; Zerefos, Christos

2012-01-01

Current climate and future climate-warming runs with the RegCM Regional Climate Model (RCM) at 50 and 11 km-resolutions forced by the ECHAM GCM are used to examine whether the increased resolution of the RCM introduces novel information in the precipitation field when the models are run for the mountainous region of the Hellenic peninsula. The model results are inter-compared with the resolution of the RCM output degraded to match that of the GCM, and it is found that in both the present and future climate runs the regional models produce more precipitation than the forcing GCM. At the same time, the RCM runs produce increases in precipitation with climate warming even though they are forced with a GCM that shows no precipitation change in the region. The additional precipitation is mostly concentrated over the mountain ranges, where orographic precipitation formation is expected to be a dominant mechanism. It is found that, when examined at the same resolution, the elevation heights of the GCM are lower than those of the averaged RCM in the areas of the main mountain ranges. It is also found that the majority of the difference in precipitation between the RCM and the GCM can be explained by their difference in topographic height. The study results indicate that, in complex topography regions, GCM predictions of precipitation change with climate warming may be dry biased due to the GCM smoothing of the regional topography.

Simulating the impact of the large-scale circulation on the 2-m temperature and precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowden, Jared H.; Nolte, Christopher G.; Otte, Tanya L.

2013-04-01

The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.

The MJO Transition from Shallow to Deep Convection in CloudSat/CALIPSO Data and GISS GCM Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DelGenio, Anthony G.; Chen, Yonghua; Kim, Daehyun; Yao, Mao-Sung

2013-01-01

The relationship between convective penetration depth and tropospheric humidity is central to recent theories of the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO). It has been suggested that general circulation models (GCMs) poorly simulate the MJO because they fail to gradually moisten the troposphere by shallow convection and simulate a slow transition to deep convection. CloudSat and Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) data are analyzed to document the variability of convection depth and its relation to water vapor during the MJO transition from shallow to deep convection and to constrain GCM cumulus parameterizations. Composites of cloud occurrence for 10MJO events show the following anticipatedMJO cloud structure: shallow and congestus clouds in advance of the peak, deep clouds near the peak, and upper-level anvils after the peak. Cirrus clouds are also frequent in advance of the peak. The Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EarthObserving System (EOS) (AMSR-E) columnwater vapor (CWV) increases by;5 mmduring the shallow- deep transition phase, consistent with the idea of moisture preconditioning. Echo-top height of clouds rooted in the boundary layer increases sharply with CWV, with large variability in depth when CWV is between;46 and 68 mm. International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project cloud classifications reproduce these climatological relationships but correctly identify congestus-dominated scenes only about half the time. A version of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies Model E2 (GISS-E2) GCM with strengthened entrainment and rain evaporation that produces MJO-like variability also reproduces the shallow-deep convection transition, including the large variability of cloud-top height at intermediate CWV values. The variability is due to small grid-scale relative humidity and lapse rate anomalies for similar values of CWV. 1.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery L.; Kahre, Melinda A.; Haberle, Robert; Atsuki Urata, Richard

2016-10-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic-period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery; Kahre, Melinda; Haberle, Robert; Urata, Richard

2017-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems. Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Synoptic Traveling Weather Systems on Mars: Effects of Radiatively-Active Water Ice Clouds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollingsworth, Jeffery; Kahre, Melinda; Haberle, Robert; Urata, Richard

2017-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols on Mars are critical in determining the nature of its thermal structure, its large-scale circulation, and hence the overall climate of the planet. We conduct multi-annual simulations with the latest version of the NASA Ames Mars global climate model (GCM), gcm2.3+, that includes a modernized radiative-transfer package and complex water-ice cloud microphysics package which permit radiative effects and interactions of suspended atmospheric aerosols (e.g., water ice clouds, water vapor, dust, and mutual interactions) to influence the net diabatic heating. Results indicate that radiatively active water ice clouds profoundly affect the seasonal and annual mean climate. The mean thermal structure and balanced circulation patterns are strongly modified near the surface and aloft. Warming of the subtropical atmosphere at altitude and cooling of the high latitude atmosphere at low levels takes place, which increases the mean pole-to-equator temperature contrast (i.e., "baroclinicity"). With radiatively active water ice clouds (RAC) compared to radiatively inert water ice clouds (nonRAC), significant changes in the intensity of the mean state and forced stationary Rossby modes occur, both of which affect the vigor and intensity of traveling, synoptic period weather systems.Such weather systems not only act as key agents in the transport of heat and momentum beyond the extent of the Hadley circulation, but also the transport of trace species such as water vapor, water ice-clouds, dust and others. The northern hemisphere (NH) forced Rossby waves and resultant wave train are augmented in the RAC case: the modes are more intense and the wave train is shifted equatorward. Significant changes also occur within the subtropics and tropics. The Rossby wave train sets up, combined with the traveling synoptic period weather systems (i.e., cyclones and anticyclones), the geographic extent of storm zones (or storm tracks) within the NH. A variety of circulation features will be presented which indicate contrasts between the RAC and nonRAC cases, and which highlight key effects radiatively-active clouds have on physical and dynamical processes active in the current climate of Mars.

Ensemble-Based Parameter Estimation in a Coupled GCM Using the Adaptive Spatial Average Method

DOE PAGES

Liu, Y.; Liu, Z.; Zhang, S.; ...

2014-05-29

Ensemble-based parameter estimation for a climate model is emerging as an important topic in climate research. And for a complex system such as a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model, the sensitivity and response of a model variable to a model parameter could vary spatially and temporally. An adaptive spatial average (ASA) algorithm is proposed to increase the efficiency of parameter estimation. Refined from a previous spatial average method, the ASA uses the ensemble spread as the criterion for selecting “good” values from the spatially varying posterior estimated parameter values; these good values are then averaged to give the final globalmore » uniform posterior parameter. In comparison with existing methods, the ASA parameter estimation has a superior performance: faster convergence and enhanced signal-to-noise ratio.« less

Dynamical Constraints on the Seasonal Migration of the ITCZ Using a Moist GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faulk, S.; Mitchell, J.; Bordoni, S.

2015-12-01

One of the most prominent features of the Earth's large-scale circulation in low latitudes is the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), where tropical precipitation is concentrated in a relatively narrow latitudinal band that moves seasonally. On Earth, the ITCZ is limited to low latitudes; however on Mars and Titan, it has been argued that analagous convergence zones can migrate significantly off the equator into the summer hemisphere, perhaps even reaching the summer pole in the case of Titan. Previous studies of the ITCZ's extent have focused primarily on thermodynamics, particularly emphasizing its collocation with maximum moist static energy (MSE) and its response to local surface heat capacity. Here, we focus on the dynamical mechanisms controlling ITCZ migrations, examining the ITCZ's extent through the perspective of the momentum budget rather than through thermal forces or land-sea changes. We study a wide range of atmospheric circulations with an idealized General Circulation Model (GCM), in which an atmospheric model with idealized physics is coupled to an aquaplanet slab ocean of fixed depth and top-of-atmosphere insolation is varied seasonally as well as held fixed at the pole in "eternal solstice" runs. We explore a range of surface heat capacities and rotation rates, keeping all other parameters Earth-like. We find that for rotation rates ΩE/8 and slower, the seasonal ITCZ reaches the summer pole. Additionally, in contrast to previous thermodynamic arguments, we find that the ITCZ does not follow the maximum MSE, remaining at low latitudes in the eternal solstice case for Earth's rotation rate. Furthermore, we find that significantly decreasing the surface heat capacity does little to extend the ITCZ's summer migration off the equator. These results suggest that the ITCZ may be more controlled by dynamical mechanisms than previously thought; however, we also find that baroclinic instability, often invoked as a limiter on the extent of the summer Hadley cell, appears to play only a minor role in limiting the ITCZ's extent. We develop a theory for constraining the ITCZ's position based on top-of-atmosphere energetics and boundary layer dynamics, offering a new perspective on the seasonal weather patterns of terrestrial planets.

Extending the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model to Explore Mars’ Middle Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brecht, Amanda; Hollingsworth, J.; Kahre, M.; Schaeffer, J.

2013-10-01

The NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) upper boundary has been extended to ~120 km altitude (p ~10-5 mbar). The extension of the MGCM upper boundary initiates the ability to understand the connection between the lower and upper atmosphere of Mars through the middle atmosphere 70 - 120 km). Moreover, it provides the opportunity to support future missions (i.e. the 2013 MAVEN mission). A major factor in this extension is the incorporation of the Non-Local Thermodynamic Equilibrium (NLTE) heating (visible) and cooling (infrared). This modification to the radiative transfer forcing (i.e., RT code) has been significantly tested in a 1D vertical column and now has been ported to the full 3D Mars GCM. Initial results clearly show the effects of NLTE in the upper middle atmosphere. Diagnostic of seasonal mean fields and large-scale wave activity will be shown with insight into circulation patterns in the middle atmosphere. Furthermore, sensitivity tests with the resolution of the pressure and temperature grids, in which the k-coefficients are calculated upon, have been performed in the 1D RT code. Our progress on this research will be presented. Brecht is supported by NASA’s Postdoctoral Program at the Ames Research Center, administered by Oak Ridge Associated Universities through a contract with NASA.

Chemistry-Climate Interactions in the GISS GCM. Part 1; Tropospheric Chemistry Model Description and Evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shindell, Drew T.; Grenfell, J. Lee; Rind, David; Price, Colin; Grewe, Volker; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A tropospheric chemistry module has been developed for use within the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to study interactions between chemistry and climate change. The model uses a simplified chemistry scheme based on CO-NOx-CH4 chemistry, and also includes a parameterization for emissions of isoprene, the most important non-methane hydrocarbon. The model reproduces present day annual cycles and mean distributions of key trace gases fairly well, based on extensive comparisons with available observations. Examining the simulated change between present day and pre-industrial conditions, we find that the model has a similar response to that seen in other simulations. It shows a 45% increase in the global tropospheric ozone burden, within the 25% - 57% range seen in other studies. Annual average zonal mean ozone increases by more than 125% at Northern Hemisphere middle latitudes near the surface. Comparison of model runs that allow the calculated ozone to interact with the GCM's radiation and meteorology with those that do not shows only minor differences for ozone. The common usage of ozone fields that are not calculated interactively seems to be adequate to simulate both the present day and the pre-industrial ozone distributions. However, use of coupled chemistry does alter the change in tropospheric oxidation capacity, enlarging the overall decrease in OH concentrations from the pre-industrial to the present by about 10% (-5.3% global annual average in uncoupled mode, -5.9% in coupled mode). This indicates that there may be systematic biases in the simulation of the pre-industrial to present day decrease in the oxidation capacity of the troposphere (though a 10% difference is well within the total uncertainty). Global annual average radiative forcing from pre-industrial to present day ozone change is 0.32 W/sq m. The forcing seems to be increased by about 10% when the chemistry is coupled to the GCM. Forcing values greater than 0.8 W/sq m are seen over large areas of the United States, Southern Europe, North Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Arctic. Radiative forcing is greater than 1.5 W/sq m over parts of these areas during Northern summer Though there are local differences, the radiative forcing is overall in good agreement with the results of other modeling studies in both its magnitude and spatial distribution, demonstrating that the simplified chemistry is adequate for climate studies.

Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2000 Version (Mars-GRAM 2000): Users Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Justus, C. G.; James, B. F.

2000-01-01

This report presents Mars Global Reference Atmospheric Model 2000 Version (Mars-GRAM 2000) and its new features. All parameterizations for temperature, pressure, density, and winds versus height, latitude, longitude, time of day, and L(sub s) have been replaced by input data tables from NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model (MGCM) for the surface through 80-km altitude and the University of Arizona Mars Thermospheric General Circulation Model (MTGCM) for 80 to 170 km. A modified Stewart thermospheric model is still used for higher altitudes and for dependence on solar activity. "Climate factors" to tune for agreement with GCM data are no longer needed. Adjustment of exospheric temperature is still an option. Consistent with observations from Mars Global Surveyor, a new longitude-dependent wave model is included with user input to specify waves having 1 to 3 wavelengths around the planet. A simplified perturbation model has been substituted for the earlier one. An input switch allows users to select either East or West longitude positive. This memorandum includes instructions on obtaining Mars-GRAM source code and data files and for running the program. It also provides sample input and output and an example for incorporating Mars-GRAM as an atmospheric subroutine in a trajectory code.

Carbon Dioxide Convection in the Martian Polar Night and Its Implications for Polar Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colaprete, A.; Haberle, R. M.

2003-01-01

Each Martian year nearly 30% of the atmosphere is exchanged with the polar ice caps. This exchange occurs through a combination of direct surface condensation and atmospheric precipitation of carbon dioxide. It has long been thought the amount of condensation within the polar night is maintained by a balance between diabatic processes such as radiative cooling and latent heating from condensing CO2. This assumption manifests itself in Mars General Circulation Models (GCM) in such a way as to never allow the atmospheric temperature to dip below the saturation temperature of CO2. However, observations from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Radio Science (RS) and the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) have demonstrated this assumption to be, at best, approximate. Both RS and TES observations within the polar nights of both poles indicate substantial supersaturated regions with respect to CO2. The observed temperature profiles suggest conditionally unstable regions containing planetary significant amounts of potential convective energy. Presented here are estimates of the total planetary inventory of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the potential convective energy flux (PCEF). The values for CAPE and PCEF are derived from RS temperature profiles and compared to Mars GCM results using a new convective CO2 cloud model that allows for the formation of CAPE.

Regional sea level variability in a high-resolution global coupled climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palko, D.; Kirtman, B. P.

2016-12-01

The prediction of trends at regional scales is essential in order to adapt to and prepare for the effects of climate change. However, GCMs are unable to make reliable predictions at regional scales. The prediction of local sea level trends is particularly critical. The main goal of this research is to utilize high-resolution (HR) (0.1° resolution in the ocean) coupled model runs of CCSM4 to analyze regional sea surface height (SSH) trends. Unlike typical, lower resolution (1.0°) GCM runs these HR runs resolve features in the ocean, like the Gulf Stream, which may have a large effect on regional sea level. We characterize the variability of regional SSH along the Atlantic coast of the US using tide gauge observations along with fixed radiative forcing runs of CCSM4 and HR interactive ensemble runs. The interactive ensemble couples an ensemble mean atmosphere with a single ocean realization. This coupling results in a 30% decrease in the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation; therefore, the HR interactive ensemble is analogous to a HR hosing experiment. By characterizing the variability in these high-resolution GCM runs and observations we seek to understand what processes influence coastal SSH along the Eastern Coast of the United States and better predict future SLR.

Evaluating the uncertainty of predicting future climate time series at the hourly time scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, E.; Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.

2011-12-01

A stochastic downscaling methodology is developed to generate hourly, point-scale time series for several meteorological variables, such as precipitation, cloud cover, shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and atmospheric pressure. The methodology uses multi-model General Circulation Model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, AWE-GEN. Probabilistic descriptions of factors of change (a measure of climate change with respect to historic conditions) are computed for several climate statistics and different aggregation times using a Bayesian approach that weights the individual GCM contributions. The Monte Carlo method is applied to sample the factors of change from their respective distributions thereby permitting the generation of time series in an ensemble fashion, which reflects the uncertainty of climate projections of future as well as the uncertainty of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology and probabilistic expressions of certainty in reproducing future climates for the periods, 2000 - 2009, 2046 - 2065 and 2081 - 2100, using the 1962 - 1992 period as the baseline, are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The climate predictions for the period of 2000 - 2009 are tested against observations permitting to assess the reliability and uncertainties of the methodology in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

Investigating the 90-day oscillations using ground-based, satellite and TIME-GCM model simulation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.; Taylor, M.; Hagan, M. E.; Pautet, P. D.; Pugmire, J. R.; Pendleton, W. R., Jr.; Russell, J. M., III

2016-12-01

The Andes Lidar Observatory (ALO) is an upper atmospheric observatory located high in the Andes mountain range at Cerro Pachón, Chile (30.3°S, 70.7°W, 2530 m). The Utah State University (USU) Mesospheric Temperature Mapper (MTM) was deployed in August, 2009 collocated with a Na wind/temperature lidar and a meteor wind radar from University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) as well as other optical instrumentation. In this presentation, we focus on the characteristics of a unique 90-day oscillation identified in the first 18 months in both the mesospheric wind and temperature data from ALO. This event appeared to be long-lived but transient, with similar amplitude to the AO and SAO at this location. Additional mesospheric temperature data from nearby El Leoncito Observatory (31.8°S, 69.3°W), Argentina also showed the same oscillation. The existence and extent of this oscillation are being further examined using SABER/TIMED temperature. The National Center for Atmosphere Research (NCAR) Thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulation of 2009/10 results are utilized to investigate the possible source of this event and the spatial structures are compared with the results from the SABER temperature data.

The Mars Dust Cycle: Investigating the Effects of Radiatively Active Water Ice Clouds on Surface Stresses and Dust Lifting Potential with the NASA Ames Mars General Circulation Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahre, Melinda A.; Hollingsworth, Jeffery

2012-01-01

The dust cycle is a critically important component of Mars' current climate system. Dust is present in the atmosphere of Mars year-round but the dust loading varies with season in a generally repeatable manner. Dust has a significant influence on the thermal structure of the atmosphere and thus greatly affects atmospheric circulation. The dust cycle is the most difficult of the three climate cycles (CO2, water, and dust) to model realistically with general circulation models. Until recently, numerical modeling investigations of the dust cycle have typically not included the effects of couplings to the water cycle through cloud formation. In the Martian atmosphere, dust particles likely provide the seed nuclei for heterogeneous nucleation of water ice clouds. As ice coats atmospheric dust grains, the newly formed cloud particles exhibit different physical and radiative characteristics. Thus, the coupling between the dust and water cycles likely affects the distributions of dust, water vapor and water ice, and thus atmospheric heating and cooling and the resulting circulations. We use the NASA Ames Mars GCM to investigate the effects of radiatively active water ice clouds on surface stress and the potential for dust lifting. The model includes a state-of-the-art water ice cloud microphysics package and a radiative transfer scheme that accounts for the radiative effects of CO2 gas, dust, and water ice clouds. We focus on simulations that are radiatively forced by a prescribed dust map, and we compare simulations that do and do not include radiatively active clouds. Preliminary results suggest that the magnitude and spatial patterns of surface stress (and thus dust lifting potential) are substantial influenced by the radiative effects of water ice clouds.

Studies of midlatitude mesospheric temperature variability and its relationship to gravity waves, tides, and planetary waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beissner, Kenneth C.

1997-10-01

Temperature observations of the middle atmosphere have been carried out from September 1993 through July 1995 using a Rayleigh backscatter lidar located at Utah State University (42oN, 111oW). Data have been analyzed to obtain absolute temperature profiles from 40 to 90 km. Various sources of error were reviewed in order to ensure the quality of the measurements. This included conducting a detailed examination of the data reduction procedure, integration methods, and averaging techniques, eliminating errors of 1-3%. The temperature structure climatology has been compared with several other mid-latitude data sets, including those from the French lidars, the SME spacecraft, the sodium lidars at Ft. Collins and Urbana, the MSISe90 model, and a high- latitude composite set from Andenes, Norway. In general, good agreement occurs at mid-latitudes, but areas of disagreement do exist. Among these, the Utah temperatures are significantly warmer than the MSISe90 temperatures above approximately 80 km, they are lower below 80 km than any of the others in summer, they show major year- to-year variability in the winter profiles, and they differ from the sodium lidar data at the altitudes where the temperature profiles should overlap. Also, comparisons between observations and a physics based global circulation model, the TIME-GCM, were conducted for a mid-latitude site. A photo-chemical model was developed to predict airglow intensity of OH based on output from the TIME-GCM. Many discrepancies between the model and observations were found, including a modeled summer mesopause too high, a stronger summer inversion not normally observed by lidar, a fall-spring asymmetry in the OH winds and lidar temperatures but not reproduced in the TIME-GCM equinoctial periods, larger winter seasonal wind tide than observed by the FPI, and a failure of the model to reverse the summertime mesospheric jet. It is our conclusion these discrepancies are due to a gravity wave parameterization in the model that is too weak and an increase will effectively align the model calculations with our observations.

Performance of Goddard Earth Observing System GCM Column Radiation Models under Heterogeneous Cloud Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oreopoulos, L.; Chou, M.-D.; Khairoutdinov, M.; Barker, H. W.; Cahalan, R. F.

2003-01-01

We test the performance of the shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) Column Radiation Models (CORAMs) of Chou and collaborators with heterogeneous cloud fields from a global single-day dataset produced by NCAR's Community Atmospheric Model with a 2-D CRM installed in each gridbox. The original SW version of the CORAM performs quite well compared to reference Independent Column Approximation (ICA) calculations for boundary fluxes, largely due to the success of a combined overlap and cloud scaling parameterization scheme. The absolute magnitude of errors relative to ICA are even smaller for the LW CORAM which applies similar overlap. The vertical distribution of heating and cooling within the atmosphere is also simulated quite well with daily-averaged zonal errors always below 0.3 K/d for SW heating rates and 0.6 K/d for LW cooling rates. The SW CORAM's performance improves by introducing a scheme that accounts for cloud inhomogeneity. These results suggest that previous studies demonstrating the inaccuracy of plane-parallel models may have unfairly focused on worst scenario cases, and that current radiative transfer algorithms of General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be more capable than previously thought in estimating realistic spatial and temporal averages of radiative fluxes, as long as they are provided with correct mean cloud profiles. However, even if the errors of the particular CORAMs are small, they seem to be systematic, and the impact of the biases can be fully assessed only with GCM climate simulations.

Atmospheric Modeling of Mars Methane Plumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mischna, Michael A.; Allen, M.; Lee, S.

2010-10-01

We present two complementary methods for isolating and modeling surface source releases of methane in the martian atmosphere. From recent observations, there is strong evidence that periodic releases of methane occur from discrete surface locations, although the exact location and mechanism of release is still unknown. Numerical model simulations with the Mars Weather Research and Forecasting (MarsWRF) general circulation model (GCM) have been applied to the ground-based observations of atmospheric methane by Mumma et al., (2009). MarsWRF simulations reproduce the natural behavior of trace gas plumes in the martian atmosphere, and reveal the development of the plume over time. These results provide constraints on the timing and location of release of the methane plume. Additional detections of methane have been accumulated by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer (PFS) on board Mars Express. For orbital observations, which generally have higher frequency and resolution, an alternate approach to source isolation has been developed. Drawing from the concept of natural selection within biology, we apply an evolutionary computational model to this problem of isolating source locations. Using genetic algorithms that `reward’ best-fit matches between observations and GCM plume simulations (also from MarsWRF) over many generations, we find that we can potentially isolate source locations to within tens of km, which is within the roving capabilities of future Mars rovers. Together, these methods present viable numerical approaches to restricting the timing, duration and size of methane release events, and can be used for other trace gas plumes on Mars as well as elsewhere in the solar system.

The influence of variations of vegetation and soil moisture on surface weather and atmospheric circulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, R.

1992-01-01

The influence of variations of vegetation and soil moisture on surface weather and atmospheric circulation is studied through the use of the Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) and the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere interactions (COLA) GCM. Tests for the SiB sensitivity to the conversion of the forest to other short vegetation or bare soil were performed at Amazonian and Great Plains sites, and a North Wales spruce forest site respectively. The results show that deforestation has a significant influence on the local surface energy budget and surface weather. The influence is especially prominent at the Amazon and Great Plains sites, and largermore » in summer than in other seasons. The influence on the partitioning of surface incoming radiative energy is generally constrained by the local atmospheric boundary condition. The sensitivity of the COLA GCM to changes in initial soil wetness (ISW) is determined by repeating three 10-day model integrations with the same initial and boundary conditions as the control runs except the values of ISW, which are revised at 69 model grid points covering much of the continental U.S. It is found that the relations between the changes in the 5-day mean forecast surface air temperature/surface specific humidity and the changes in ISW depend upon vegetation type and the values of ISW, and can be approximated by regression equations. These relations are also confirmed with independent data. With the ISW revised based on these regression equations the surface forecasts of the revised runs are consistently improved. The spatial scale of the ISW anomaly determines the degree and range of the influence. The influence of a small regional ISW change is mainly confined to the local region and to low atmospheric levels. The influence on surface fluxes is strong and persists for more than one month, but the effects on precipitation are relatively weak, changeable, and complex, particularly when an interactive cloud scheme is used.« less

Dynamical response of the summer MLT to tropospheric global warming: Results from a mechanistic GCM with resolved gravity waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, E.

2009-04-01

The sensitivity of the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) to climate variability of the troposphere is largely controlled by the generation, propagation, and dissipation of gravity waves (GWs). Conventional climate models cannot fully describe this sensitivity since GWs must be parameterized by invoking strong assumptions. Since the Eliassen-Palm flux (EPF) of low-frequency inertia GWs is negligible, the main contribution to the EPF divergence at high latitudes of the MLT is due to mid- and high-frequency GWs with periods of a few hours or less. In order to resolve at least a good portion of these waves in a GCM, a high spatial resolution from the boundary layer to the lower thermosphere is required. Furthermore, both the generation and dissipation of resolved GWs is expected to depend strongly on the details of the parameterization of turbulence. The present study proposes a new formulation of the Kuehlungsborn mechanistic general circulation model (KMCM) with high spatial resolution and Smagorinsky-type horizontal and vertical diffusion coefficients that are both scaled by the Richardson criterion. This model version allows for an explicit and self-consistent simulation of the gravity-wave drag in the MLT. A sensitivity experiment is conducted in which the main changes associated with tropospheric global warming are imposed by the differential heating, i.e., reduced static stability in the lower troposphere along with a reduced equator-to-pole temperature difference and enhanced latent heating in the intertropical convergence zone. These changes result in both a stronger Lorenz energy cycle and enhanced gravity-wave activity in the upper troposphere at middle latitudes. The altered gravity-wave sources result in the following remote effects in the summer MLT: downward shift of the residual circulation, as well as lower temperatures and reduced easterlies below the mesopause. These changes are consistent with enhanced turbulent diffusion and dissipation below the mesopause due to larger gravity-wave amplitudes.

A comparison of quiet time thermospheric winds between FPIs and models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, G.; Xu, J.; Wang, W.; Yuan, W.; Zhang, S.; Yu, T.; Zhang, X.; Huang, C.; Liu, W.; Li, Q.

2017-12-01

Abstract:The Fabry-Perot Interferometer (FPI) instruments installed at Xinglong, (geog.: 40.2oN, 117.4oE; geom.: 35oN), Kelan (geog.: 38.7oN, 111.6oE; geom.: 34oN) and Millstone Hill (geog.: 42.6oN, 71.5oW; geom.: 52oN) started to measure the thermosphere neutral winds near 250 km since April 2010, March 2010 and November 2011, respectively. In this work, the joined comparison of FPI observed winds and two models during geomagnetic quiet time are processed for the study of mid-latitudinal thermosphere. The years of FPI wind data we use are from 2010 to 2014. The two models we use are NCAR TIE-GCM (Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model of National Center for Atmospheric Research) and HWM07 (Horizontal Wind Model, version 2007). The real solar and geomagnetic conditions were applied to the models.

The global distribution of gravity wave energy in the lower stratosphere derived from GPS data and gravity wave modelling: Attempt and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fröhlich, K.; Schmidt, T.; Ern, M.; Preusse, P.; de La Torre, A.; Wickert, J.; Jacobi, Ch.

2007-12-01

Five years of global temperatures retrieved from radio occultations measured by Champ (Challenging Minisatellite Payload) and SAC-C (Satelite de Aplicaciones Cientificas-C) are analyzed for gravity waves (GWs). In order to separate GWs from other atmospheric variations, a high-pass filter was applied on the vertical profile. Resulting temperature fluctuations correspond to vertical wavelengths between 400 m (instrumental resolution) and 10 km (limit of the high-pass filter). The temperature fluctuations can be converted into GW potential energy, but for comparison with parameterization schemes GW momentum flux is required. We therefore used representative values for the vertical and horizontal wavelength to infer GW momentum flux from the GPS measurements. The vertical wavelength value is determined by high-pass filtering, the horizontal wavelength is adopted from a latitude-dependent climatology. The obtained momentum flux distributions agree well, both in global distribution and in absolute values, with simulations using the Warner and McIntyre parameterization (WM) scheme. However, discrepancies are found in the annual cycle. Online simulations, implementing the WM scheme in the mechanistic COMMA-LIM (Cologne Model of the Middle Atmosphere—Leipzig Institute for Meteorology) general circulation model (GCM), do not converge, demonstrating that a good representation of GWs in a GCM requires both a realistic launch distribution and an adequate representation of GW breaking and momentum transfer.

HAPEX-Sahel: A large-scale study of land-atmosphere interactions in the semi-arid tropics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gutorbe, J-P.; Lebel, T.; Tinga, A.; Bessemoulin, P.; Brouwer, J.; Dolman, A.J.; Engman, E. T.; Gash, J. H. C.; Hoepffner, M.; Kabat, P.

1994-01-01

The Hydrologic Atmospheric Pilot EXperiment in the Sahel (HAPEX-Sahel) was carried out in Niger, West Africa, during 1991-1992, with an intensive observation period (IOP) in August-October 1992. It aims at improving the parameteriztion of land surface atmospheric interactions at the Global Circulation Model (GCM) gridbox scale. The experiment combines remote sensing and ground based measurements with hydrological and meteorological modeling to develop aggregation techniques for use in large scale estimates of the hydrological and meteorological behavior of large areas in the Sahel. The experimental strategy consisted of a period of intensive measurements during the transition period of the rainy to the dry season, backed up by a series of long term measurements in a 1 by 1 deg square in Niger. Three 'supersites' were instrumented with a variety of hydrological and (micro) meteorological equipment to provide detailed information on the surface energy exchange at the local scale. Boundary layer measurements and aircraft measurements were used to provide information at scales of 100-500 sq km. All relevant remote sensing images were obtained for this period. This program of measurements is now being analyzed and an extensive modelling program is under way to aggregate the information at all scales up to the GCM grid box scale. The experimental strategy and some preliminary results of the IOP are described.

The interpretation of remotely sensed cloud properties from a model paramterization perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

HARSHVARDHAN; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Ginger, Kathryn M.

1994-01-01

A study has been made of the relationship between mean cloud radiative properties and cloud fraction in stratocumulus cloud systems. The analysis is of several Land Resources Satellite System (LANDSAT) images and three hourly International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) C-1 data during daylight hours for two grid boxes covering an area typical of a general circulation model (GCM) grid increment. Cloud properties were inferred from the LANDSAT images using two thresholds and several pixel resolutions ranging from roughly 0.0625 km to 8 km. At the finest resolution, the analysis shows that mean cloud optical depth (or liquid water path) increases somewhat with increasing cloud fraction up to 20% cloud coverage. More striking, however, is the lack of correlation between the two quantities for cloud fractions between roughly 0.2 and 0.8. When the scene is essentially overcast, the mean cloud optical tends to be higher. Coarse resolution LANDSAT analysis and the ISCCP 8-km data show lack of correlation between mean cloud optical depth and cloud fraction for coverage less than about 90%. This study shows that there is perhaps a local mean liquid water path (LWP) associated with partly cloudy areas of stratocumulus clouds. A method has been suggested to use this property to construct the cloud fraction paramterization in a GCM when the model computes a grid-box-mean LWP.

Simulations of Hurricane Katrina (2005) with the 0.125 degree finite-volume General Circulation Model on the NASA Columbia Supercomputer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shen, B.-W.; Atlas, R.; Reale, O.; Lin, S.-J.; Chern, J.-D.; Chang, J.; Henze, C.

2006-01-01

Hurricane Katrina was the sixth most intense hurricane in the Atlantic. Katrina's forecast poses major challenges, the most important of which is its rapid intensification. Hurricane intensity forecast with General Circulation Models (GCMs) is difficult because of their coarse resolution. In this article, six 5-day simulations with the ultra-high resolution finite-volume GCM are conducted on the NASA Columbia supercomputer to show the effects of increased resolution on the intensity predictions of Katrina. It is found that the 0.125 degree runs give comparable tracks to the 0.25 degree, but provide better intensity forecasts, bringing the center pressure much closer to observations with differences of only plus or minus 12 hPa. In the runs initialized at 1200 UTC 25 AUG, the 0.125 degree simulates a more realistic intensification rate and better near-eye wind distributions. Moreover, the first global 0.125 degree simulation without convection parameterization (CP) produces even better intensity evolution and near-eye winds than the control run with CP.

Comparison of Martian Dust Devil Track Morphologies in Gusev and Russell Craters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verba, C. A.; Geissler, P. E.

2008-12-01

Detailed HiRISE images were used to observe the seasonal changes of dust devil tracks in Gusev and Russell craters, focusing on the temporal and morphological differences between the two locations. Seasonal variations in dust devil activity are influenced by topography, sediment supply, altitude, as well as latitudinal variations in the atmospheric dust cycle and local winds. Topographical features, such as the dunes in Russell, enhance convective circulation, thereby playing a key role in dust devil formation. The greater the contrast between surface and air temperatures, the greater the surface heat flux and potential for dust devil activity. The NASA Ames General Circulation Model (GCM) was used to compare predicted wind directions to those determined from inferred scallops of tracks mapped using ArcMap. Observations indicate distinct variations in the density, shape, and size of the tracks during specific seasons. Russell crater tracks are curvilinear and highly sinuous, with widths and lengths ranging from 20-40 m and 340 m to 9 km respectively. Gusev crater tracks are less sinuous, measuring tens of meters wide and 2-4 km long. Tracks in Russell crater are aligned with the northwesterly oriented prevailing wind as predicted by the GCM. The dust devil season in Gusev Crater is much shorter (Ls= 160° - 340°, with only minor activity afterwards) than that of Russell Crater (Ls= 172° - 40°). Peak dust devil frequencies occur sooner at Gusev (Ls 250°) than at Russell crater (Ls 288°). Track densities are greater and more consistent in Gusev crater and are more variable at Russell, particularly during the early part of the season. Possible explanations for the differences in seasonal behavior between the study sites include: (1) average altitudes up to 2000 m higher at Russell crater than at Gusev, resulting in enhanced convective circulation; (2) increased insolation at higher southern latitudes during perihelion; and (3) frost on the dunes delays the start of the dust devil season in Russell crater.

Origins of the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Semiannual Oscillation: Reformulating the "Thermospheric Spoon" Mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, M.; Emmert, J. T.; Drob, D. P.; Picone, J. M.; Meier, R. R.

2018-01-01

We demonstrate how Earth's obliquity generates the global thermosphere-ionosphere (T-I) semiannual oscillation (SAO) in mass density and electron density primarily through seasonally varying large-scale advection of neutral thermospheric constituents, sometimes referred to as the "thermospheric spoon" mechanism (TSM). The National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere-electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) is used to isolate the TSM forcing of this prominent intraannual variation (IAV) and to elucidate the contributions of other processes to the T-I SAO. An ˜30% SAO in globally averaged mass density (relative to its global annual average) at 400 km is reproduced in the TIME-GCM in the absence of seasonally varying eddy diffusion, tropospheric tidal forcing, and gravity wave breaking. Artificially, decreasing the tilt of Earth's rotation axis with respect to the ecliptic plane to 11.75° reduces seasonal variations in insolation and weakens interhemispheric pressure differences at the solstices, thereby damping the global-scale, interhemispheric transport of atomic oxygen (O) and molecular nitrogen in the thermosphere and reducing the simulated global mass density SAO amplitude to ˜10%. Simulated T-I IAVs in mass density and electron density have equinoctial maxima at all latitudes near the F2 region peak; this phasing and its latitude dependence agree well with empirically inferred climatologies. When tropospheric tides and gravity waves are included, simulated IAV amplitudes and their latitudinal dependence also agree well with empirically inferred climatologies. Simulated meridional and vertical transport of O due to the TSM couples to the upper mesospheric circulation, which also contributes to the T-I SAO through O chemistry.

Errors and improvements in the use of archived meteorological data for chemical transport modeling: an analysis using GEOS-Chem v11-01 driven by GEOS-5 meteorology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Karen; Keller, Christoph A.; Jacob, Daniel J.; Molod, Andrea M.; Eastham, Sebastian D.; Long, Michael S.

2018-01-01

Global simulations of atmospheric chemistry are commonly conducted with off-line chemical transport models (CTMs) driven by archived meteorological data from general circulation models (GCMs). The off-line approach has the advantages of simplicity and expediency, but it incurs errors due to temporal averaging in the meteorological archive and the inability to reproduce the GCM transport algorithms exactly. The CTM simulation is also often conducted at coarser grid resolution than the parent GCM. Here we investigate this cascade of CTM errors by using 222Rn-210Pb-7Be chemical tracer simulations off-line in the GEOS-Chem CTM at rectilinear 0.25° × 0.3125° (≈ 25 km) and 2° × 2.5° (≈ 200 km) resolutions and online in the parent GEOS-5 GCM at cubed-sphere c360 (≈ 25 km) and c48 (≈ 200 km) horizontal resolutions. The c360 GEOS-5 GCM meteorological archive, updated every 3 h and remapped to 0.25° × 0.3125°, is the standard operational product generated by the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) and used as input by GEOS-Chem. We find that the GEOS-Chem 222Rn simulation at native 0.25° × 0.3125° resolution is affected by vertical transport errors of up to 20 % relative to the GEOS-5 c360 online simulation, in part due to loss of transient organized vertical motions in the GCM (resolved convection) that are temporally averaged out in the 3 h meteorological archive. There is also significant error caused by operational remapping of the meteorological archive from a cubed-sphere to a rectilinear grid. Decreasing the GEOS-Chem resolution from 0.25° × 0.3125° to 2° × 2.5° induces further weakening of vertical transport as transient vertical motions are averaged out spatially and temporally. The resulting 222Rn concentrations simulated by the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem are overestimated by up to 40 % in surface air relative to the online c360 simulations and underestimated by up to 40 % in the upper troposphere, while the tropospheric lifetimes of 210Pb and 7Be against aerosol deposition are affected by 5-10 %. The lost vertical transport in the coarse-resolution GEOS-Chem simulation can be partly restored by recomputing the convective mass fluxes at the appropriate resolution to replace the archived convective mass fluxes and by correcting for bias in the spatial averaging of boundary layer mixing depths.

AI-based (ANN and SVM) statistical downscaling methods for precipitation estimation under climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehrvand, Masoud; Baghanam, Aida Hosseini; Razzaghzadeh, Zahra; Nourani, Vahid

2017-04-01

Since statistical downscaling methods are the most largely used models to study hydrologic impact studies under climate change scenarios, nonlinear regression models known as Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based models such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) have been used to spatially downscale the precipitation outputs of Global Climate Models (GCMs). The study has been carried out using GCM and station data over GCM grid points located around the Peace-Tampa Bay watershed weather stations. Before downscaling with AI-based model, correlation coefficient values have been computed between a few selected large-scale predictor variables and local scale predictands to select the most effective predictors. The selected predictors are then assessed considering grid location for the site in question. In order to increase AI-based downscaling model accuracy pre-processing has been developed on precipitation time series. In this way, the precipitation data derived from various GCM data analyzed thoroughly to find the highest value of correlation coefficient between GCM-based historical data and station precipitation data. Both GCM and station precipitation time series have been assessed by comparing mean and variances over specific intervals. Results indicated that there is similar trend between GCM and station precipitation data; however station data has non-stationary time series while GCM data does not. Finally AI-based downscaling model have been applied to several GCMs with selected predictors by targeting local precipitation time series as predictand. The consequences of recent step have been used to produce multiple ensembles of downscaled AI-based models.

Hydrological climate change projections for Central America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, Hugo G.; Amador, Jorge A.; Alfaro, Eric J.; Quesada, Beatriz

2013-07-01

Runoff climate change projections for the 21st century were calculated from a suite of 30 General Circulation Model (GCM) simulations for the A1B emission scenario in a 0.5° × 0.5° grid over Central America. The GCM data were downscaled using a version of the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) method and then used in the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model. The VIC model showed calibration skill in Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama, but the results for some of the northern countries (Guatemala, El Salvador and Belize) and for the Caribbean coast of Central America was not satisfactory. Bias correction showed to remove effectively the biases in the GCMs. Results of the projected climate in the 2050-2099 period showed median significant reductions in precipitation (as much as 5-10%) and runoff (as much as 10-30%) in northern Central America. Therefore in this sub-region the prevalence of severe drought may increase significantly in the future under this emissions scenario. Northern Central America could warm as much as 3 °C during 2050-2099 and southern Central America could reach increases as much as 4 °C during the same period. The projected dry pattern over Central America is consistent with a southward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In addition, downscaling of the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis data from 1948 to 2012 and posterior run in VIC, for two locations in the northern and southern sub-regions of Central America, suggested that the annual runoff has been decreasing since ca. 1980, which is consistent with the sign of the runoff changes of the GCM projections. However, the Reanalysis 1980-2012 drying trends are generally much stronger than the corresponding GCM trends. Among the possible reasons for that discrepancy are model deficiencies, amplification of the trends due to constructive interference with natural modes of variability in the Reanalysis data, errors in the Reanalysis (modeled) precipitation data, and that the drying signal is more pronounced than predicted by the emissions scenario used. A few studies show that extrapolations of future climate from paleoclimatic indicators project a wetter climate in northern Central America, which is inconsistent with the modeling results presented here. However, these types of extrapolations should be done with caution, as the future climate responds to an extra forcing mechanism (anthropogenic) that was not present prehistorically and therefore the response could also be different than in the past.

A conditional Granger causality model approach for group analysis in functional MRI

PubMed Central

Zhou, Zhenyu; Wang, Xunheng; Klahr, Nelson J.; Liu, Wei; Arias, Diana; Liu, Hongzhi; von Deneen, Karen M.; Wen, Ying; Lu, Zuhong; Xu, Dongrong; Liu, Yijun

2011-01-01

Granger causality model (GCM) derived from multivariate vector autoregressive models of data has been employed for identifying effective connectivity in the human brain with functional MR imaging (fMRI) and to reveal complex temporal and spatial dynamics underlying a variety of cognitive processes. In the most recent fMRI effective connectivity measures, pairwise GCM has commonly been applied based on single voxel values or average values from special brain areas at the group level. Although a few novel conditional GCM methods have been proposed to quantify the connections between brain areas, our study is the first to propose a viable standardized approach for group analysis of an fMRI data with GCM. To compare the effectiveness of our approach with traditional pairwise GCM models, we applied a well-established conditional GCM to pre-selected time series of brain regions resulting from general linear model (GLM) and group spatial kernel independent component analysis (ICA) of an fMRI dataset in the temporal domain. Datasets consisting of one task-related and one resting-state fMRI were used to investigate connections among brain areas with the conditional GCM method. With the GLM detected brain activation regions in the emotion related cortex during the block design paradigm, the conditional GCM method was proposed to study the causality of the habituation between the left amygdala and pregenual cingulate cortex during emotion processing. For the resting-state dataset, it is possible to calculate not only the effective connectivity between networks but also the heterogeneity within a single network. Our results have further shown a particular interacting pattern of default mode network (DMN) that can be characterized as both afferent and efferent influences on the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and posterior cingulate cortex (PCC). These results suggest that the conditional GCM approach based on a linear multivariate vector autoregressive (MVAR) model can achieve greater accuracy in detecting network connectivity than the widely used pairwise GCM, and this group analysis methodology can be quite useful to extend the information obtainable in fMRI. PMID:21232892

A Catchment-Based Approach to Modeling Land Surface Processes in a GCM. Part 2; Parameter Estimation and Model Demonstration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ducharne, Agnes; Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, Max J.; Stieglitz, Marc; Kumar, Praveen

2000-01-01

The viability of a new catchment-based land surface model (LSM) developed for use with general circulation models is demonstrated. First, simple empirical functions -- tractable enough for operational use in the LSM -- are established that faithfully capture the control of topography on the subgrid variability of soil moisture and the surface water budget, as predicted by theory. Next, the full LSM is evaluated offline. Using forcing and validation datasets developed for PILPS Phase 2c, the minimally calibrated model is shown to reproduce observed evaporation and runoff fluxes successfully in the Red-Arkansas River Basin. A complementary idealized study that employs the range of topographic variability seen over North America demonstrates that the simulated surface water budget does vary strongly with topography, which can, by itself, induce variations in annual evaporation as high as 20%.

MAMI: Modeling of the Magnetosphere-Ionosphere-Atmosphere System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1998-01-01

Major emphasis of the investigation was the development of theoretical and numerical models of the aurora and of high latitude ionospheric processes. In particular: (1) the NCAR TIGCM (Thermosphere-Ionosphere Global Circulation Model) was updated to include mid and low latitude electrodynamics (this version is called TIE-GCM); (2) the NCAR TIE-GCM was modified to include a more realistic representation of the aurora; (3) the UAF auroral electron transport model was modified to include local acceleration processes; (4) a local ionospheric and auroral model (AURORA) was developed to allow detailed studies of the aurora; (5) a proton-hydrogen transport code has been developed to model proton aurora; and (6) a theory for the production of suprathermal atoms and ions in the upper atmosphere was developed and applied to studies of atomic nitrogen transport and helium escape on open field lines. These models enable us to devise schemes for tile interpretation and quantitative analysis of data obtained by the POLAR spacecraft. Parameterizations were formulated and are available to the GGS investigators. The UVI and VIS teams have adopted these parameterizations and include them in their data analysis. We have developed software for the quantitative interpretation of UVI and VIS images. After the launch of the POLAR satellite we used the image data from UVI and VIS in combination with ground based data from SuperDARN and incoherent scatter radars, magnetometers, and in situ observations from DMSP and NOAA satellites to characterize the state of the ionosphere. A number of event studies have been carried out in cooperation with other CGS theory teams.

Regional model simulations of New Zealand climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renwick, James A.; Katzfey, Jack J.; Nguyen, Kim C.; McGregor, John L.

1998-03-01

Simulation of New Zealand climate is examined through the use of a regional climate model nested within the output of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation nine-level general circulation model (GCM). R21 resolution GCM output is used to drive a regional model run at 125 km grid spacing over the Australasian region. The 125 km run is used in turn to drive a simulation at 50 km resolution over New Zealand. Simulations with a full seasonal cycle are performed for 10 model years. The focus is on the quality of the simulation of present-day climate, but results of a doubled-CO2 run are discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of mean simulated precipitation and surface temperatures improve markedly as horizontal resolution is increased, through the better resolution of the country's orography. However, increased horizontal resolution leads to a positive bias in precipitation. At 50 km resolution, simulated frequency distributions of daily maximum/minimum temperatures are statistically similar to those of observations at many stations, while frequency distributions of daily precipitation appear to be statistically different to those of observations at most stations. Modeled daily precipitation variability at 125 km resolution is considerably less than observed, but is comparable to, or exceeds, observed variability at 50 km resolution. The sensitivity of the simulated climate to changes in the specification of the land surface is discussed briefly. Spatial patterns of the frequency of extreme temperatures and precipitation are generally well modeled. Under a doubling of CO2, the frequency of precipitation extremes changes only slightly at most locations, while air frosts become virtually unknown except at high-elevation sites.

Martian atmospheric gravity waves simulated by a high-resolution general circulation model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuroda, Takeshi; Yiǧit, Erdal; Medvedev, Alexander S.; Hartogh, Paul

2016-07-01

Gravity waves (GWs) significantly affect temperature and wind fields in the Martian middle and upper atmosphere. They are also one of the observational targets of the MAVEN mission. We report on the first simulations with a high-resolution general circulation model (GCM) and present a global distributions of small-scale GWs in the Martian atmosphere. The simulated GW-induced temperature variances are in a good agreement with available radio occultation data in the lower atmosphere between 10 and 30 km. For the northern winter solstice, the model reveals a latitudinal asymmetry with stronger wave generation in the winter hemisphere and two distinctive sources of GWs: mountainous regions and the meandering winter polar jet. Orographic GWs are filtered upon propagating upward, and the mesosphere is primarily dominated by harmonics with faster horizontal phase velocities. Wave fluxes are directed mainly against the local wind. GW dissipation in the upper mesosphere generates a body force per unit mass of tens of m s^{-1} per Martian solar day (sol^{-1}), which tends to close the simulated jets. The results represent a realistic surrogate for missing observations, which can be used for constraining GW parameterizations and validating GCMs.

High resolution 3D global climate modeling of Pluto's atmosphere to interpret New Horizons observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Tanguy; Forget, Francois; New Horizons Science Team

2017-10-01

We use the LMD Global Climate Model (GCM) of Pluto's atmosphere to interpret New Horizons observations and simulate the Pluto climate system. The model takes into account the cycles of N2, CH4, CO and organic haze. It is described in details in Forget et al., 2017. In order to ensure our simulations, sensitive to our initial conditions, correctly describe reality, we initialize the 3D model with a set of subsurface temperatures and ice distribution, which converged toward steady state after thousands of years simulated with a 2D version of the model (Bertrand and Forget, 2016).We identify three “realistic” simulations which differ by their spatial distribution of N2 ice in 2015 but remain consistent with the evolution of the surface pressure (Sicardy et al., 2016) and the amount of atmospheric methane observed on Pluto (Lellouch et al., 2015). We perform a comprehensive characterization of Pluto’s atmosphere in 2015 using these simulations. Near surface winds can be compared to wind streaks on Pluto, while the simulated waves and thermal structure can be compared to the New Horizons occultations measurements (Hinson et al., 2017).In particular, we demonstrate the sensitivity of the general circulation to the distribution of N2 ice on the surface. Our latest results suggest that Pluto’s atmosphere undergoes retrograde rotation, a unique circulation regime in the Solar System, induced by the condensation-sublimation of N2 in the Sputnik Planitia basin. In Sputnik Planitia, the near-surface winds favor a deposition of haze particles in the northern and western part of the ice cap, which helps to interpret the different colors observed. The GCM also shows that several atmospheric phenomena are at the origin of the cold boundary layer observed deep in the Sputnik Planitia basin, in particular the sublimation of N2, effects of topography and the supply of cold air by winds. This allows us to understand the near-surface differences observed between the entry and exit temperature profiles, measured by REX on-board New Horizons. However it does not reproduce the differences observed between 6 and 30 km above the mean surface.

On the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation to reconstructions of paleo-bathymetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Tobias; Thomas, Maik

2013-04-01

The ability to model the long-term evolution of the climate does considerably depend on the accuracy of ocean models and their interaction with the atmosphere. Thereby, the ocean model's behavior with respect to uncertain and changing boundary conditions is of crucial importance. One of the remaining questions is, how different reconstructions of the ocean floor influence the model. Although of general interest, this effect has mostly been neglected, so far. We modeled Pliocene and pre-industrial ocean currents with the Max-Planck-Institute Ocean Model (MPIOM), forced by climatologies derived from an atmospheric and vegetational Global Circulation Model (GCM). We equipped it with different reconstructions of the bathymetry, what allowed us to study the model's sensitivity regarding changes in bathymetry. On the one hand we examined the influence of reconstructions with different locations of major ridges, but the same treatment of the shelf. On the other hand, reconstruction techniques that treated the shelf areas differently were taken into consideration. This leads to different oceanic circulation realizations, which induce changes in deep ocean temperature and salinity. Some of the simulations result in unrealistic behavior, such as an increase in surface temperature by several degrees. Most important, small bathymetric changes in the areas of deep water formation near Greenland and the Antarctic alter the thermohaline circulation strongly. This leads to its complete cessation in some of the simulations and therefore to stationary deep laying ocean masses. This shows that not all bathymetric reconstruction sequences are applicable for the generation of boundary conditions for GCMs. In order to obtain reliable and physically realistic data from the models, the reconstruction method to be used for the paleo-bathymetry also needs to be applied to the present day bathymetry. This reconstruction can then be used in a control simulation which can be validated against measurements. Hereby systematic errors introduced by the reconstruction technique are identified.

Reply to comment "On the hydrogen escape: Comment to variability of the hydrogen in the Martian upper atmosphere as simulated by a 3D atmosphere-exosphere coupling by J.-Y. Chaufray et al." by V. Krasnopolsky, Icarus, 281, 262

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaufray, J.-Y.; Gonzalez-Galindo, F.; Forget, F.; Lopez-Valverde, M.; Leblanc, F.; Modolo, R.; Hess, S.

2018-02-01

Krasnopolsky (2017) makes a careful review of our recent results about the Martian hydrogen content of the Martian upper atmosphere (Chaufray et al., 2015). We comment here on his two major points. First, he suggests that the non-thermal escape of H2, and particularly collisions with hot oxygen, not taken into account in our general circulation model (GCM), should modify our reported H2 and H density profiles. This is an important issue; we acknowledge that future effective coupling of our GCM with comprehensive models of the Martian solar wind interaction, ideally after being validated with the latest plasma observations of H2+, would allow for better estimations of the relative importance of the H2 non-thermal and thermal escape processes. For the time being we need assumptions in the GCM, with proper and regular updates. According to a recent and detailed study of the anisotropic elastic and inelastic collision cross sections between O and H2 (Gacesa et al., 2012), the escape rates used by Krasnopolsky (2010) for this process might be overestimated. We therefore do not include non thermal escape of H2 in the model. And secondly, in response to Krasnopolsky's comment on the H escape variability with the solar cycle, we revised our calculations and found a small bug in the computation of the Jeans effusion velocity. Our revised computed H escape rates are included here. They have a small impact on our key conclusions: similar seasonal variations, a reduced variation with the solar cycle but still larger than Krasnopolsky (2017), and again a hydrogen scape systematically lower than the diffusion-limited flux. This bug does not affect the latest Mars Climate Database v5.2.

Climate downscaling effects on predictive ecological models: a case study for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bucklin, David N.; Watling, James I.; Speroterra, Carolina; Brandt, Laura A.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romañach, Stephanie S.

2013-01-01

High-resolution (downscaled) projections of future climate conditions are critical inputs to a wide variety of ecological and socioeconomic models and are created using numerous different approaches. Here, we conduct a sensitivity analysis of spatial predictions from climate envelope models for threatened and endangered vertebrates in the southeastern United States to determine whether two different downscaling approaches (with and without the use of a regional climate model) affect climate envelope model predictions when all other sources of variation are held constant. We found that prediction maps differed spatially between downscaling approaches and that the variation attributable to downscaling technique was comparable to variation between maps generated using different general circulation models (GCMs). Precipitation variables tended to show greater discrepancies between downscaling techniques than temperature variables, and for one GCM, there was evidence that more poorly resolved precipitation variables contributed relatively more to model uncertainty than more well-resolved variables. Our work suggests that ecological modelers requiring high-resolution climate projections should carefully consider the type of downscaling applied to the climate projections prior to their use in predictive ecological modeling. The uncertainty associated with alternative downscaling methods may rival that of other, more widely appreciated sources of variation, such as the general circulation model or emissions scenario with which future climate projections are created.

Uncertainty in modeled upper ocean heat content change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokmakian, Robin; Challenor, Peter

2014-02-01

This paper examines the uncertainty in the change in the heat content in the ocean component of a general circulation model. We describe the design and implementation of our statistical methodology. Using an ensemble of model runs and an emulator, we produce an estimate of the full probability distribution function (PDF) for the change in upper ocean heat in an Atmosphere/Ocean General Circulation Model, the Community Climate System Model v. 3, across a multi-dimensional input space. We show how the emulator of the GCM's heat content change and hence, the PDF, can be validated and how implausible outcomes from the emulator can be identified when compared to observational estimates of the metric. In addition, the paper describes how the emulator outcomes and related uncertainty information might inform estimates of the same metric from a multi-model Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 ensemble. We illustrate how to (1) construct an ensemble based on experiment design methods, (2) construct and evaluate an emulator for a particular metric of a complex model, (3) validate the emulator using observational estimates and explore the input space with respect to implausible outcomes and (4) contribute to the understanding of uncertainties within a multi-model ensemble. Finally, we estimate the most likely value for heat content change and its uncertainty for the model, with respect to both observations and the uncertainty in the value for the input parameters.

Anomalies of the Asian Monsoon Induced by Aerosol Forcings

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K. M.; Kim, M. K.

2004-01-01

Impacts of aerosols on the Asian summer monsoon are studied using the NASA finite volume General Circulation Model (fvGCM), with radiative forcing derived from three-dimensional distributions of five aerosol species i.e., black carbon, organic carbon, soil dust, and sea salt from the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport Model (GOCART). Results show that absorbing aerosols, i.e., black carbon and dust, induce large-scale upper-level heating anomaly over the Tibetan Plateau in April and May, ushering in & early onset of the Indian summer monsoon. Absorbing aerosols also I i enhance lower-level heating and anomalous ascent over northern India, intensifying the Indian monsoon. Overall, the aerosol-induced large-scale surface' temperature cooling leads to a reduction of monsoon rainfall over the East Asia continent, and adjacent oceanic regions.

Meeting the Next Generation Science Standards Through "Rediscovered" Climate Model Experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sohl, L. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Zhou, J.

2013-12-01

Since the Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) Project made its debut in January 2005, over 150 institutions have employed EdGCM software for a variety of uses ranging from short lab exercises to semester-long and year-long thesis projects. The vast majority of these EdGCM adoptees have been at the undergraduate and graduate levels, with few users at the K-12 level. The K-12 instructors who have worked with EdGCM in professional development settings have commented that, although EdGCM can be used to illustrate a number of the Disciplinary Core Ideas and connects to many of the Common Core State Standards across subjects and grade levels, significant hurdles preclude easy integration of EdGCM into their curricula. Time constraints, a scarcity of curriculum materials, and classroom technology are often mentioned as obstacles in providing experiences to younger grade levels in realistic climate modeling research. Given that the NGSS incorporates student performance expectations relating to Earth System Science, and to climate science and the human dimension in particular, we feel that a streamlined version of EdGCM -- one that eliminates the need to run the climate model on limited computing resources, and provides a more guided climate modeling experience -- would be highly beneficial for the K-12 community. This new tool currently under development, called EzGCM, functions through a browser interface, and presents "rediscovery experiments" that allow students to do their own exploration of model output from published climate experiments, or from sensitivity experiments designed to illustrate how climate models as well as the climate system work. The experiments include background information and sample questions, with more extensive notes for instructors so that the instructors can design their own reflection questions or follow-on activities relating to physical or human impacts, as they choose. An added benefit of the EzGCM tool is that, like EdGCM, it helps illustrate the process of doing research on a complex topic, in a way that builds upon earlier experiences in inquiry-based learning. By having students work through a multi-stage process that requires them to plan several steps ahead, through data processing, analysis and interpretation, they learn how to do research in addition to improving their understanding of climate change.

Liquid slip over gas nanofilms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramisetti, Srinivasa B.; Borg, Matthew K.; Lockerby, Duncan A.; Reese, Jason M.

2017-08-01

We propose the rarefied-gas-cushion model (r-GCM), as an extended version of the gas-cushion model (GCM), to estimate the apparent slip of water flowing over a gas layer trapped at a solid surface. Nanobubbles or gas nanofilms may manifest rarefied-gas effects and the r-GCM incorporates kinetic boundary conditions for the gas component in the slip Knudsen regime. These enable an apparent hydrodynamic slip length to be calculated given the gas thickness, the Knudsen number, and the bulk fluid viscosities. We assess the r-GCM through nonequilibrium molecular dynamics (NEMD) simulations of shear-driven liquid flow over an infinite gas nanofilm covering a solid surface, from the gas slip regime to the early transition regime, beyond which NEMD is computationally impractical. We find that, over the flow regimes examined, the r-GCM provides better predictions of the apparent liquid slip and retrieves both the GCM and the free-molecular behavior in the appropriate limits.

Development of a High-Resolution Climate Model for Future Climate Change Projection on the Earth Simulator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanzawa, H.; Emori, S.; Nishimura, T.; Suzuki, T.; Inoue, T.; Hasumi, H.; Saito, F.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kimoto, M.; Sumi, A.

2002-12-01

The fastest supercomputer of the world, the Earth Simulator (total peak performance 40TFLOPS) has recently been available for climate researches in Yokohama, Japan. We are planning to conduct a series of future climate change projection experiments on the Earth Simulator with a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. The main scientific aims for the experiments are to investigate 1) the change in global ocean circulation with an eddy-permitting ocean model, 2) the regional details of the climate change including Asian monsoon rainfall pattern, tropical cyclones and so on, and 3) the change in natural climate variability with a high-resolution model of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system. To meet these aims, an atmospheric GCM, CCSR/NIES AGCM, with T106(~1.1o) horizontal resolution and 56 vertical layers is to be coupled with an oceanic GCM, COCO, with ~ 0.28ox 0.19o horizontal resolution and 48 vertical layers. This coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model, named MIROC, also includes a land-surface model, a dynamic-thermodynamic seaice model, and a river routing model. The poles of the oceanic model grid system are rotated from the geographic poles so that they are placed in Greenland and Antarctic land masses to avoild the singularity of the grid system. Each of the atmospheric and the oceanic parts of the model is parallelized with the Message Passing Interface (MPI) technique. The coupling of the two is to be done with a Multi Program Multi Data (MPMD) fashion. A 100-model-year integration will be possible in one actual month with 720 vector processors (which is only 14% of the full resources of the Earth Simulator).

Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modelling purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menut, Laurent; Tripathi, Om P.; Colette, Augustin; Vautard, Robert; Flaounas, Emmanouil; Bessagnet, Bertrand

2013-05-01

In order to evaluate the future potential benefits of emission regulation on regional air quality, while taking into account the effects of climate change, off-line air quality projection simulations are driven using weather forcing taken from regional climate models. These regional models are themselves driven by simulations carried out using global climate models (GCM) and economical scenarios. Uncertainties and biases in climate models introduce an additional "climate modeling" source of uncertainty that is to be added to all other types of uncertainties in air quality modeling for policy evaluation. In this article we evaluate the changes in air quality-related weather variables induced by replacing reanalyses-forced by GCM-forced regional climate simulations. As an example we use GCM simulations carried out in the framework of the ERA-interim programme and of the CMIP5 project using the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace climate model (IPSLcm), driving regional simulations performed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX programme. In summer, we found compensating deficiencies acting on photochemistry: an overestimation by GCM-driven weather due to a positive bias in short-wave radiation, a negative bias in wind speed, too many stagnant episodes, and a negative temperature bias. In winter, air quality is mostly driven by dispersion, and we could not identify significant differences in either wind or planetary boundary layer height statistics between GCM-driven and reanalyses-driven regional simulations. However, precipitation appears largely overestimated in GCM-driven simulations, which could significantly affect the simulation of aerosol concentrations. The identification of these biases will help interpreting results of future air quality simulations using these data. Despite these, we conclude that the identified differences should not lead to major difficulties in using GCM-driven regional climate simulations for air quality projections.

Long-Term Climatic Variations in the Almati Oblast in Central Asian Kazakhstan: Correlations between National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis II Results and Oblast Meteorological Station Data from 1949 to the Present. Volume 5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welker, Jean E.; Au, Andrew Y.

2003-01-01

As part of a larger analysis of country systems described elsewhere, named a Crop Country Inventory, CCI, large variations in annual crop yield for selected climate sensitive agricultural regions or sub-regions within a country have been studied over extended periods in decades. These climate sensitive regions, principally responsible for large annual variations in an entire country s crop production, generally are characterized by distinctive patterns of atmospheric circulation and synoptic processes that result in large seasonal fluctuations in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture as well as other climate properties. The immediate region of interest is drought prone Kazakhstan in Central Asia, part of the Former Soviet Union, FSU. As a partial validation test in a dry southern region of Kazakhstan, the Almati Oblast was chosen. The Almati Oblast, a sub-region of Kazakhstan located in its southeast corner, is one of 14 oblasts within the Republic of Kazahstan. The climate data set used to characterize this region was taken from the results of the current maturely developed Global Climate Model, GCM. In this paper, the GCM results have been compared to the meteorological station data at the station locations, over various periods. If the empirical correlation of the data sets from both the GCM and station data is sufficiently significant, this would validate the use of the superior GCM profile mapping and integration for the climatic characterization of a sub-region. Precipitation values interpolated from NCEP Reanalysis II data, a global climate database spanning over 5 decades since 1949, have been statistically correlated with monthly-averaged station data from 1949 through 1993, and with daily station data from April through August, 1990 for the Almati Oblast in Kazakhstan. The resultant correlation is significant, which implies that the methodology may be extended to different regions globally for Crop Country Inventory studies.

A Multi-scale Modeling System: Developments, Applications and Critical Issues

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Wei-Kuo; Chern, Jiundar; Atlas, Robert; Randall, David; Lin, Xin; Khairoutdinov, Marat; Li, Jui-Lin; Waliser, Duane E.; Hou, Arthur; Peters-Lidard, Christa;

Evapotranspiration and runoff from large land areas: Land surface hydrology for atmospheric general circulation models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Famiglietti, J. S.; Wood, Eric F.

1993-01-01

A land surface hydrology parameterization for use in atmospheric GCM's is presented. The parameterization incorporates subgrid scale variability in topography, soils, soil moisture and precipitation. The framework of the model is the statistical distribution of a topography-soils index, which controls the local water balance fluxes, and is therefore taken to represent the large land area. Spatially variable water balance fluxes are integrated with respect to the topography-soils index to yield our large topography-soils distribution, and interval responses are weighted by the probability of occurrence of the interval. Grid square averaged land surface fluxes result. The model functions independently as a macroscale water balance model. Runoff ratio and evapotranspiration efficiency parameterizations are derived and are shown to depend on the spatial variability of the above mentioned properties and processes, as well as the dynamics of land surface-atmosphere interactions.

Stratospheric temperatures and tracer transport in a nudged 4-year middle atmosphere GCM simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Aalst, M. K.; Lelieveld, J.; Steil, B.; Brühl, C.; Jöckel, P.; Giorgetta, M. A.; Roelofs, G.-J.

2005-02-01

We have performed a 4-year simulation with the Middle Atmosphere General Circulation Model MAECHAM5/MESSy, while slightly nudging the model's meteorology in the free troposphere (below 113 hPa) towards ECMWF analyses. We show that the nudging 5 technique, which leaves the middle atmosphere almost entirely free, enables comparisons with synoptic observations. The model successfully reproduces many specific features of the interannual variability, including details of the Antarctic vortex structure. In the Arctic, the model captures general features of the interannual variability, but falls short in reproducing the timing of sudden stratospheric warmings. A 10 detailed comparison of the nudged model simulations with ECMWF data shows that the model simulates realistic stratospheric temperature distributions and variabilities, including the temperature minima in the Antarctic vortex. Some small (a few K) model biases were also identified, including a summer cold bias at both poles, and a general cold bias in the lower stratosphere, most pronounced in midlatitudes. A comparison 15 of tracer distributions with HALOE observations shows that the model successfully reproduces specific aspects of the instantaneous circulation. The main tracer transport deficiencies occur in the polar lowermost stratosphere. These are related to the tropopause altitude as well as the tracer advection scheme and model resolution. The additional nudging of equatorial zonal winds, forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation, sig20 nificantly improves stratospheric temperatures and tracer distributions.

Predicting Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Modes with a Climate Modeling Hierarchy -- Final Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michael Ghil, UCLA; Andrew W. Robertson, IRI, Columbia Univ.; Sergey Kravtsov, U. of Wisconsin, Milwaukee

The goal of the project was to determine midlatitude climate predictability associated with tropical-extratropical interactions on interannual-to-interdecadal time scales. Our strategy was to develop and test a hierarchy of climate models, bringing together large GCM-based climate models with simple fluid-dynamical coupled ocean-ice-atmosphere models, through the use of advanced probabilistic network (PN) models. PN models were used to develop a new diagnostic methodology for analyzing coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions in large climate simulations made with the NCAR Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and to make these tools user-friendly and available to other researchers. We focused on interactions between the tropics and extratropics throughmore » atmospheric teleconnections (the Hadley cell, Rossby waves and nonlinear circulation regimes) over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and the ocean’s thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic. We tested the hypothesis that variations in the strength of the THC alter sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, and that the latter influence the atmosphere in high latitudes through an atmospheric teleconnection, feeding back onto the THC. The PN model framework was used to mediate between the understanding gained with simplified primitive equations models and multi-century simulations made with the PCM. The project team is interdisciplinary and built on an existing synergy between atmospheric and ocean scientists at UCLA, computer scientists at UCI, and climate researchers at the IRI.« less

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, Kenneth L.; Ironside, Kirsten; Eischeid, Jon K.; Garfin, Gregg; Duffy, Phil; Toney, Chris

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

Impact of Land Model Depth on Long Term Climate Variability and Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Rouco, J. F.; García-Bustamante, E.; Hagemann, S.; Lorentz, S.; Jungclaus, J.; de Vrese, P.; Melo, C.; Navarro, J.; Steinert, N.

2017-12-01

The available evidence indicates that the simulation of subsurface thermodynamics in current General Circulation Models (GCMs) is not accurate enough due to the land-surface model imposing a zero heat flux boundary condition that is too close to the surface. Shallow land model components distort the amplitude and phase of the heat propagation in the subsurface with implications for energy storage and land-air interactions. Off line land surface model experiments forced with GCM climate change simulations and comparison with borehole temperature profiles indicate there is a large reduction of the energy storage of the soil using the typical shallow land models included in most GCMs. However, the impact of increasing the depth of the soil model in `on-line' GCM simulations of climate variability or climate change has not yet been systematically explored. The JSBACH land surface model has been used in stand alone mode, driven by outputs of the MPIESM to assess the impacts of progressively increasing the depth of the soil model. In a first stage, preindustrial control simulations are developed increasing the lower depth of the zero flux bottom boundary condition placed for temperature at the base of the fifth model layer (9.83 m) down to 294.6 m (layer 9), thus allowing for the bottom layers to reach equilibrium. Starting from piControl conditions, historical and scenario simulations have been performed since 1850 yr. The impact of increasing depths on the subsurface layer temperatures is analysed as well as the amounts of energy involved. This is done also considering permafrost processes (freezing and thawing). An evaluation on the influence of deepening the bottom boundary on the simulation of low frequency variability and temperature trends is provided.

Observations and simulations of the ionospheric lunar tide: Seasonal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.

2014-07-01

The seasonal variability of the ionospheric lunar tide is investigated using a combination of Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) observations and thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere electrodynamics general circulation model (TIME-GCM) simulations. The present study focuses on the seasonal variability of the lunar tide in the ionosphere and its potential connection to the occurrence of stratosphere sudden warmings (SSWs). COSMIC maximum F region electron density (NmF2) and total electron content observations reveal a primarily annual variation of the ionospheric lunar tide, with maximum amplitudes occurring at low latitudes during December-February. Simulations of the lunar tide climatology in TIME-GCM display a similar annual variability as the COSMIC observations. This leads to the conclusion that the annual variability of the lunar tide in the ionosphere is not solely due to the occurrence of SSWs. Rather, the annual variability of the lunar tide in the ionosphere is generated by the seasonal variability of the lunar tide at E region altitudes. However, compared to the observations, the ionospheric lunar tide annual variability is weaker in the climatological simulations which is attributed to the occurrence of SSWs during the majority of the years included in the observations. Introducing a SSW into the TIME-GCM simulation leads to an additional enhancement of the lunar tide during Northern Hemisphere winter, increasing the lunar tide annual variability and resulting in an annual variability that is more consistent with the observations. The occurrence of SSWs can therefore potentially bias lunar tide climatologies, and it is important to consider these effects in studies of the lunar tide in the atmosphere and ionosphere.

Using regime analysis to identify the contribution of clouds to surface temperature errors in weather and climate models

DOE PAGES

Van Weverberg, Kwinten; Morcrette, Cyril J.; Ma, Hsi -Yen; ...

2015-06-17

Many global circulation models (GCMs) exhibit a persistent bias in the 2 m temperature over the midlatitude continents, present in short-range forecasts as well as long-term climate simulations. A number of hypotheses have been proposed, revolving around deficiencies in the soil–vegetation–atmosphere energy exchange, poorly resolved low-level boundary-layer clouds or misrepresentations of deep-convective storms. A common approach to evaluating model biases focuses on the model-mean state. However, this makes difficult an unambiguous interpretation of the origins of a bias, given that biases are the result of the superposition of impacts of clouds and land-surface deficiencies over multiple time steps. This articlemore » presents a new methodology to objectively detect the role of clouds in the creation of a surface warm bias. A unique feature of this study is its focus on temperature-error growth at the time-step level. It is shown that compositing the temperature-error growth by the coinciding bias in total downwelling radiation provides unambiguous evidence for the role that clouds play in the creation of the surface warm bias during certain portions of the day. Furthermore, the application of an objective cloud-regime classification allows for the detection of the specific cloud regimes that matter most for the creation of the bias. We applied this method to two state-of-the-art GCMs that exhibit a distinct warm bias over the Southern Great Plains of the USA. Our analysis highlights that, in one GCM, biases in deep-convective and low-level clouds contribute most to the temperature-error growth in the afternoon and evening respectively. In the second GCM, deep clouds persist too long in the evening, leading to a growth of the temperature bias. In conclusion, the reduction of the temperature bias in both models in the morning and the growth of the bias in the second GCM in the afternoon could not be assigned to a cloud issue, but are more likely caused by a land-surface deficiency.« less

Development of AN Atmospheric Aerosol Model for Studies of Global Budgets and Effects of Airborne Particulate Material

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giorgi, Filippo

A microphysics-removal Atmospheric Aerosol Model (AAM) is developed for use in General Circulation Models (GCM) to study global budgets and effects of particulate material. In this model the particle population is assumed to be composed of a set of log-normal modes whose time evolution due to microphysical processes is described via prognostic equations for an appropriate number of moments of the particle size distribution. This newly devised technique, by making use of a small number of prognostic equations for the aerosol variables and utilizing optimized numerical procedures, renders the model computationally efficient, hence particularly suitable for use in complex 3D GCMs. Detailed parameterizations of particle coagulation, sedimentation, dry deposition, and wet removal are incorporated into the AAM. The coagulation term includes only intramodal Brownian coagulation; the sedimentation term is proportional to the vertical divergence of the gravitational settling flux; dry depositions is calculated in terms of a surface deposition velocity dependent upon surface wind speed, surface drag coefficient, particle size and density, and characteristics of the surface roughness elements; wet removal is included as an in-cloud scavenging term dependent upon the local GCM-produced precipitation rates. The AAM is incorporated into a GCM and is applied to two types of studies: (1) Characteristics of the particle wet and dry removal processes. The rainout-determined lifetimes of soluble particulate (or gaseous) compounds are found to depend, because of the episodic and asymmetric nature of precipitation, not only on the amount of precipitation but also on the characteristics of the storm cycle and the direction of the species' main flow. Calculated dry deposition velocities are sensitive, in a complicated fashion, to both meteorological factors and particle dynamics. (2) Climatic and environmental impact of massive particulate injections following a full-scale nuclear war, with emphasis on the sensitivity of the simulated effects to the inclusion of particle microphysics. Rainout is found to be a crucial element in regulating aerosol loadings and residence times, and consequently in determining global impacts, whereas coagulation and dry deposition introduce only second order effects. A generally milder global impact is predicted than those suggested by previous studies.

Comparing convective heat fluxes derived from thermodynamics to a radiative-convective model and GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhara, Chirag; Renner, Maik; Kleidon, Axel

2015-04-01

The convective transport of heat and moisture plays a key role in the climate system, but the transport is typically parameterized in models. Here, we aim at the simplest possible physical representation and treat convective heat fluxes as the result of a heat engine. We combine the well-known Carnot limit of this heat engine with the energy balances of the surface-atmosphere system that describe how the temperature difference is affected by convective heat transport, yielding a maximum power limit of convection. This results in a simple analytic expression for convective strength that depends primarily on surface solar absorption. We compare this expression with an idealized grey atmosphere radiative-convective (RC) model as well as Global Circulation Model (GCM) simulations at the grid scale. We find that our simple expression as well as the RC model can explain much of the geographic variation of the GCM output, resulting in strong linear correlations among the three approaches. The RC model, however, shows a lower bias than our simple expression. We identify the use of the prescribed convective adjustment in RC-like models as the reason for the lower bias. The strength of our model lies in its ability to capture the geographic variation of convective strength with a parameter-free expression. On the other hand, the comparison with the RC model indicates a method for improving the formulation of radiative transfer in our simple approach. We also find that the latent heat fluxes compare very well among the approaches, as well as their sensitivity to surface warming. What our comparison suggests is that the strength of convection and their sensitivity in the climatic mean can be estimated relatively robustly by rather simple approaches.

Does Arctic sea ice reduction foster shelf-basin exchange?

PubMed

Ivanov, Vladimir; Watanabe, Eiji

2013-12-01

The recent shift in Arctic ice conditions from prevailing multi-year ice to first-year ice will presumably intensify fall-winter sea ice freezing and the associated salt flux to the underlying water column. Here, we conduct a dual modeling study whose results suggest that the predicted catastrophic consequences for the global thermohaline circulation (THC), as a result of the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, may not necessarily occur. In a warmer climate, the substantial fraction of dense water feeding the Greenland-Scotland overflow may form on Arctic shelves and cascade to the deep basin, thus replenishing dense water, which currently forms through open ocean convection in the sub-Arctic seas. We have used a simplified model for estimating how increased ice production influences shelf-basin exchange associated with dense water cascading. We have carried out case studies in two regions of the Arctic Ocean where cascading was observed in the past. The baseline range of buoyancy-forcing derived from the columnar ice formation was calculated as part of a 30-year experiment of the pan-Arctic coupled ice-ocean general circulation model (GCM). The GCM results indicate that mechanical sea ice divergence associated with lateral advection accounts for a significant part of the interannual variations in sea ice thermal production in the coastal polynya regions. This forcing was then rectified by taking into account sub-grid processes and used in a regional model with analytically prescribed bottom topography and vertical stratification in order to examine specific cascading conditions in the Pacific and Atlantic sectors of the Arctic Ocean. Our results demonstrate that the consequences of enhanced ice formation depend on geographical location and shelf-basin bathymetry. In the Pacific sector, strong density stratification in slope waters impedes noticeable deepening of shelf-origin water, even for the strongest forcing applied. In the Atlantic sector, a 1.5x increase of salt flux leads to a threefold increase of shelf-slope volume flux below the warm core of Atlantic water. This threefold increase would be a sufficient substitute for a similar amount of dense water that currently forms in the Greenland, Iceland, and Norwegian (GIN) seas but is expected to decrease in a warming climate.

Performance of the Goddard Multiscale Modeling Framework with Goddard Ice Microphysical Schemes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chern, Jiun-Dar; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Lang, Stephen E.; Matsui, Toshihisa; Li, J.-L.; Mohr, Karen I.; Skofronick-Jackson, Gail M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2016-01-01

The multiscale modeling framework (MMF), which replaces traditional cloud parameterizations with cloud-resolving models (CRMs) within a host atmospheric general circulation model (GCM), has become a new approach for climate modeling. The embedded CRMs make it possible to apply CRM-based cloud microphysics directly within a GCM. However, most such schemes have never been tested in a global environment for long-term climate simulation. The benefits of using an MMF to evaluate rigorously and improve microphysics schemes are here demonstrated. Four one-moment microphysical schemes are implemented into the Goddard MMF and their results validated against three CloudSat/CALIPSO cloud ice products and other satellite data. The new four-class (cloud ice, snow, graupel, and frozen drops/hail) ice scheme produces a better overall spatial distribution of cloud ice amount, total cloud fractions, net radiation, and total cloud radiative forcing than earlier three-class ice schemes, with biases within the observational uncertainties. Sensitivity experiments are conducted to examine the impact of recently upgraded microphysical processes on global hydrometeor distributions. Five processes dominate the global distributions of cloud ice and snow amount in long-term simulations: (1) allowing for ice supersaturation in the saturation adjustment, (2) three additional correction terms in the depositional growth of cloud ice to snow, (3) accounting for cloud ice fall speeds, (4) limiting cloud ice particle size, and (5) new size-mapping schemes for snow and graupel. Despite the cloud microphysics improvements, systematic errors associated with subgrid processes, cyclic lateral boundaries in the embedded CRMs, and momentum transport remain and will require future improvement.

Predicting climate change: Uncertainties and prospects for surmounting them

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghil, Michael

2008-03-01

General circulation models (GCMs) are among the most detailed and sophisticated models of natural phenomena in existence. Still, the lack of robust and efficient subgrid-scale parametrizations for GCMs, along with the inherent sensitivity to initial data and the complex nonlinearities involved, present a major and persistent obstacle to narrowing the range of estimates for end-of-century warming. Estimating future changes in the distribution of climatic extrema is even more difficult. Brute-force tuning the large number of GCM parameters does not appear to help reduce the uncertainties. Andronov and Pontryagin (1937) proposed structural stability as a way to evaluate model robustness. Unfortunately, many real-world systems proved to be structurally unstable. We illustrate these concepts with a very simple model for the El Niño--Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Our model is governed by a differential delay equation with a single delay and periodic (seasonal) forcing. Like many of its more or less detailed and realistic precursors, this model exhibits a Devil's staircase. We study the model's structural stability, describe the mechanisms of the observed instabilities, and connect our findings to ENSO phenomenology. In the model's phase-parameter space, regions of smooth dependence on parameters alternate with rough, fractal ones. We then apply the tools of random dynamical systems and stochastic structural stability to the circle map and a torus map. The effect of noise with compact support on these maps is fairly intuitive: it is the most robust structures in phase-parameter space that survive the smoothing introduced by the noise. The nature of the stochastic forcing matters, thus suggesting that certain types of stochastic parametrizations might be better than others in achieving GCM robustness. This talk represents joint work with M. Chekroun, E. Simonnet and I. Zaliapin.

Intercomparison of different uncertainty sources in hydrological climate change projections for an alpine catchment (upper Clutha River, New Zealand)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jobst, Andreas M.; Kingston, Daniel G.; Cullen, Nicolas J.; Schmid, Josef

2018-06-01

As climate change is projected to alter both temperature and precipitation, snow-controlled mid-latitude catchments are expected to experience substantial shifts in their seasonal regime, which will have direct implications for water management. In order to provide authoritative projections of climate change impacts, the uncertainty inherent to all components of the modelling chain needs to be accounted for. This study assesses the uncertainty in potential impacts of climate change on the hydro-climate of a headwater sub-catchment of New Zealand's largest catchment (the Clutha River) using a fully distributed hydrological model (WaSiM) and unique ensemble encompassing different uncertainty sources: general circulation model (GCM), emission scenario, bias correction and snow model. The inclusion of snow models is particularly important, given that (1) they are a rarely considered aspect of uncertainty in hydrological modelling studies, and (2) snow has a considerable influence on seasonal patterns of river flow in alpine catchments such as the Clutha. Projected changes in river flow for the 2050s and 2090s encompass substantial increases in streamflow from May to October, and a decline between December and March. The dominant drivers are changes in the seasonal distribution of precipitation (for the 2090s +29 to +84 % in winter) and substantial decreases in the seasonal snow storage due to temperature increase. A quantitative comparison of uncertainty identified GCM structure as the dominant contributor in the seasonal streamflow signal (44-57 %) followed by emission scenario (16-49 %), bias correction (4-22 %) and snow model (3-10 %). While these findings suggest that the role of the snow model is comparatively small, its contribution to the overall uncertainty was still found to be noticeable for winter and summer.

Cloud Simulations in Response to Turbulence Parameterizations in the GISS Model E GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yao, Mao-Sung; Cheng, Ye

2013-01-01

The response of cloud simulations to turbulence parameterizations is studied systematically using the GISS general circulation model (GCM) E2 employed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5).Without the turbulence parameterization, the relative humidity (RH) and the low cloud cover peak unrealistically close to the surface; with the dry convection or with only the local turbulence parameterization, these two quantities improve their vertical structures, but the vertical transport of water vapor is still weak in the planetary boundary layers (PBLs); with both local and nonlocal turbulence parameterizations, the RH and low cloud cover have better vertical structures in all latitudes due to more significant vertical transport of water vapor in the PBL. The study also compares the cloud and radiation climatologies obtained from an experiment using a newer version of turbulence parameterization being developed at GISS with those obtained from the AR5 version. This newer scheme differs from the AR5 version in computing nonlocal transports, turbulent length scale, and PBL height and shows significant improvements in cloud and radiation simulations, especially over the subtropical eastern oceans and the southern oceans. The diagnosed PBL heights appear to correlate well with the low cloud distribution over oceans. This suggests that a cloud-producing scheme needs to be constructed in a framework that also takes the turbulence into consideration.

Simulation of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in a coarse-resolution aquaplanet GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayamohan, R. S.; Khouider, Boualem; Majda, Andrew J.

2014-08-01

The skill of the global climate models (GCMs) to realistically simulate the monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) is related to the sensitivity of their convective parameterization schemes. Here we show that by coupling a simple multicloud parameterization to a coarse-resolution aquaplanet GCM, realistic MISOs can be simulated. We conduct three different simulations with a fixed nonhomogeneous sea surface temperature mimicking the Indian Ocean/western Pacific warm pool (WP) centered at the three latitudes 5°N, 10°N, and 15°N, respectively, to replicate the seasonal migration of the Tropical Convergence Zone (TCZ). This results in the generation of mean circulation resembling the monsoonal flow pattern in boreal summer. Succession of eastward propagating Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) disturbances with phase speed, amplitude, and structure similar to summer MJOs are simulated when the WP is at 5°N. When the WP is located over 10°N, northward and eastward propagating MISOs are simulated. This case captures the meridional seesaw of convection between continental and oceanic TCZ observed during boreal summer over South Asia. Westward propagating Rossby wave-like disturbances are simulated when the WP is over 15°N congruous with the synoptic disturbances seen over the monsoon trough. The initiation of intraseasonal oscillations in the model can occur internally through organization of convective events above the WP associated with internal dynamics.

Geothermal heating enhances atmospheric asymmetries on synchronously rotating planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haqq-Misra, Jacob; Kopparapu, Ravi Kumar

2015-01-01

Earth-like planets within the liquid water habitable zone of M-type stars may evolve into synchronous rotators. On these planets, the substellar hemisphere experiences perpetual daylight while the opposing antistellar hemisphere experiences perpetual darkness. Because the night-side hemisphere has no direct source of energy, the air over this side of the planet is prone to freeze out and deposit on the surface, which could result in atmospheric collapse. However, general circulation models (GCMs) have shown that atmospheric dynamics can counteract this problem and provide sufficient energy transport to the antistellar side. Here, we use an idealized GCM to consider the impact of geothermal heating on the habitability of synchronously rotating planets. Geothermal heating may be expected due to tidal interactions with the host star, and the effects of geothermal heating provide additional habitable surface area and may help to induce melting of ice on the antistellar hemisphere. We also explore the persistence of atmospheric asymmetries between the Northern and Southern hemispheres, and we find that the direction of the meridional circulation (for rapidly rotating planets) or the direction of zonal wind (for slowly rotating planets) reverses on either side of the substellar point. We show that the zonal circulation approaches a theoretical state similar to a Walker circulation only for slowly rotating planets, while rapidly rotating planets show a zonal circulation with the opposite direction. We find that a cross-polar circulation is present in all cases and provides an additional mechanism of mass and energy transport from the substellar to antistellar point. Characterization of the atmospheres of synchronously rotating planets should include consideration of hemispheric differences in meridional circulation and examination of transport due to cross-polar flow.

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin; Rind, David

1994-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

An automatic and effective parameter optimization method for model tuning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, T.; Li, L.; Lin, Y.; Xue, W.; Xie, F.; Xu, H.; Huang, X.

2015-05-01

Physical parameterizations in General Circulation Models (GCMs), having various uncertain parameters, greatly impact model performance and model climate sensitivity. Traditional manual and empirical tuning of these parameters is time consuming and ineffective. In this study, a "three-step" methodology is proposed to automatically and effectively obtain the optimum combination of some key parameters in cloud and convective parameterizations according to a comprehensive objective evaluation metrics. Different from the traditional optimization methods, two extra steps, one determines parameter sensitivity and the other chooses the optimum initial value of sensitive parameters, are introduced before the downhill simplex method to reduce the computational cost and improve the tuning performance. Atmospheric GCM simulation results show that the optimum combination of these parameters determined using this method is able to improve the model's overall performance by 9%. The proposed methodology and software framework can be easily applied to other GCMs to speed up the model development process, especially regarding unavoidable comprehensive parameters tuning during the model development stage.

Analysis of TIMED/GUVI Dayglow Utraviolet Oxygen Images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, A. B.; Crowley, G.; Meier, R.

2016-12-01

Analysis of the atomic oxygen resonance transition at 130.4 nm and the inter-combination transition at 135.6 nm measured by the TIMED/GUVI mission demonstrates the state of knowledge of these important dayglow emission features and the degree to which current models can simulate their global properties. The complete modeling framework comprises several models, including the Thermosphere ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM), Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics (AMIE), a partial frequency redistribution resonance scattering model usually called REDISTER needed to compute the optically thick radiative transfer of the 130.4 nm emission, airglow emission models, GLOW and AURIC and other procedures. Observations for four different days, collected under different geophysical conditions of magnetic activity and solar cycle, show very good agreement with the calculated emission brightness and geographic distribution for both emissions. The differences between the airglow codes for the 135.6 nm emission will be discussed in connection to the photoelectron energy loss cross sections, as well as the excitation cross sections used in the various models.

Assessment of NASA GISS CMIP5 and Post-CMIP5 Simulated Clouds and TOA Radiation Budgets Using Satellite Observations. Part I: Cloud Fraction and Properties

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stanfield, Ryan E.; Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Kennedy, Aaron; Del Genio, Anthony D.; Minnia, Patrick; Jiang, Jonathan H.

2014-01-01

Although many improvements have been made in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), clouds remain a significant source of uncertainty in general circulation models (GCMs) because their structural and optical properties are strongly dependent upon interactions between aerosol/cloud microphysics and dynamics that are unresolved in such models. Recent changes to the planetary boundary layer (PBL) turbulence and moist convection parameterizations in the NASA GISS Model E2 atmospheric GCM(post-CMIP5, hereafter P5) have improved cloud simulations significantly compared to its CMIP5 (hereafter C5) predecessor. A study has been performed to evaluate these changes between the P5 and C5 versions of the GCM, both of which used prescribed sea surface temperatures. P5 and C5 simulated cloud fraction (CF), liquid water path (LWP), ice water path (IWP), cloud water path (CWP), precipitable water vapor (PWV), and relative humidity (RH) have been compared to multiple satellite observations including the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (CERES-MODIS, hereafter CM), CloudSat- Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO; hereafter CC), Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E). Although some improvements are observed in the P5 simulation on a global scale, large improvements have been found over the southern midlatitudes (SMLs), where correlations increased and both bias and root-mean-square error (RMSE) significantly decreased, in relation to the previous C5 simulation, when compared to observations. Changes to the PBL scheme have resulted in improved total column CFs, particularly over the SMLs where marine boundary layer (MBL) CFs have increased by nearly 20% relative to the previous C5 simulation. Globally, the P5 simulated CWPs are 25 gm22 lower than the previous C5 results. The P5 version of the GCM simulates PWV and RH higher than its C5 counterpart and agrees well with the AMSR-E and AIRS observations. The moister atmospheric conditions simulated by P5 are consistent with the CF comparison and provide a strong support for the increase in MBL clouds over the SMLs. Over the tropics, the P5 version of the GCM simulated total column CFs and CWPs are slightly lower than the previous C5 results, primarily as a result of the shallower tropical boundary layer in P5 relative to C5 in regions outside the marine stratocumulus decks.

Aerosol specification in single-column Community Atmosphere Model version 5

DOE PAGES

Lebassi-Habtezion, B.; Caldwell, P. M.

2015-03-27

Single-column model (SCM) capability is an important tool for general circulation model development. In this study, the SCM mode of version 5 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM5) is shown to handle aerosol initialization and advection improperly, resulting in aerosol, cloud-droplet, and ice crystal concentrations which are typically much lower than observed or simulated by CAM5 in global mode. This deficiency has a major impact on stratiform cloud simulations but has little impact on convective case studies because aerosol is currently not used by CAM5 convective schemes and convective cases are typically longer in duration (so initialization is less important).more » By imposing fixed aerosol or cloud-droplet and crystal number concentrations, the aerosol issues described above can be avoided. Sensitivity studies using these idealizations suggest that the Meyers et al. (1992) ice nucleation scheme prevents mixed-phase cloud from existing by producing too many ice crystals. Microphysics is shown to strongly deplete cloud water in stratiform cases, indicating problems with sequential splitting in CAM5 and the need for careful interpretation of output from sequentially split climate models. Droplet concentration in the general circulation model (GCM) version of CAM5 is also shown to be far too low (~ 25 cm −3) at the southern Great Plains (SGP) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site.« less

The Origin of Systematic Errors in the GCM Simulation of ITCZ Precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Suarez, M. J.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Chen, B.; Takacs, L. L.

2006-01-01

Previous GCM studies have found that the systematic errors in the GCM simulation of the seasonal mean ITCZ intensity and location could be substantially corrected by adding suitable amount of rain re-evaporation or cumulus momentum transport. However, the reason(s) for these systematic errors and solutions has remained a puzzle. In this work the knowledge gained from previous studies of the ITCZ in an aqua-planet model with zonally uniform SST is applied to solve this puzzle. The solution is supported by further aqua-planet and full model experiments using the latest version of the Goddard Earth Observing System GCM.

A Simplified Biosphere Model for Global Climate Studies.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Y.; Sellers, P. J.; Kinter, J. L.; Shukla, J.

1991-03-01

The Simple Biosphere Model (SiB) as described in Sellers et al. is a bio-physically based model of land surface-atmosphere interaction. For some general circulation model (GCM) climate studies, further simplifications are desirable to have greater computation efficiency, and more important, to consolidate the parametric representation. Three major reductions in the complexity of SiB have been achieved in the present study.The diurnal variation of surface albedo is computed in SiB by means of a comprehensive yet complex calculation. Since the diurnal cycle is quite regular for each vegetation type, this calculation can be simplified considerably. The effect of root zone soil moisture on stomatal resistance is substantial, but the computation in SiB is complicated and expensive. We have developed approximations, which simulate the effects of reduced soil moisture more simply, keeping the essence of the biophysical concepts used in SiB.The surface stress and the fluxes of heat and moisture between the top of the vegetation canopy and an atmospheric reference level have been parameterized in an off-line version of SiB based upon the studies by Businger et al. and Paulson. We have developed a linear relationship between Richardson number and aero-dynamic resistance. Finally, the second vegetation layer of the original model does not appear explicitly after simplification. Compared to the model of Sellers et al., we have reduced the number of input parameters from 44 to 21. A comparison of results using the reduced parameter biosphere with those from the original formulation in a GCM and a zero-dimensional model shows the simplified version to reproduce the original results quite closely. After simplification, the computational requirement of SiB was reduced by about 55%.

BsmI vitamin D receptor's polymorphism and bone mineral density in men and premenopausal women on long-term antiepileptic therapy.

PubMed

Lambrinoudaki, I; Kaparos, G; Armeni, E; Alexandrou, A; Damaskos, C; Logothetis, E; Creatsa, M; Antoniou, A; Kouskouni, E; Triantafyllou, N

2011-01-01

utilization of antiepileptic drugs (AEDs) has long been associated with bone deleterious effects. Furthermore, the BsmI restriction fragment polymorphism of the vitamin D receptor (VDR) has been associated with reduced bone mineral density (BMD), mostly in postmenopausal women. This study evaluates the association between bone metabolism of patients with epilepsy and the BsmI VDR's polymorphism in chronic users of AEDs. this study evaluated 73 long-term users of antiepileptic drug monotherapy, in a cross-sectional design. Fasting blood samples were obtained to estimate the circulating serum levels of calcium, magnesium, phosphorus, parathormone, 25 hydroxyvitamin D as well as the VDR's genotype. Bone mineral density at the lumbar spine was measured with Dual Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry. bone mineral density was significantly associated with the genotype of VDR (mean BMD: Bb genotype 1.056 ± 0.126 g/cm(2) ; BB genotype 1.059 ± 0.113 g/cm(2) ; bb genotype 1.179 ± 0.120 g/cm(2) ; P < 0.05). Additionally, the presence of at least one B allele was significantly associated with lower bone mineral density (B allele present: BMD = 1.057 ± 0.12 g/cm(2) , B allele absent: BMD = 1.179 ± 0.119 g/cm(2) ; P < 0.01). Patients with at least one B allele had lower serum levels of 25 hydroxyvitamin D when compared with bb patients (22.61 ng/ml vs. 33.27 ng/ml, P < 0.05), whilst they tended to have higher levels of parathyroid hormone. vitamin D receptor polymorphism is associated with lower bone mass in patients with epilepsy. This effect might be mediated through the vitamin D-parathormone pathway.

Exploring the southern ocean response to climate change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martinson, Douglas G.; Rind, David; Parkinson, Claire

1993-01-01

The purpose of this project was to couple a regional (Southern Ocean) ocean/sea ice model to the existing Goddard Institute for Space Science (GISS) atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). This modification recognizes: the relative isolation of the Southern Ocean; the need to account, prognostically, for the significant air/sea/ice interaction through all involved components; and the advantage of translating the atmospheric lower boundary (typically the rapidly changing ocean surface) to a level that is consistent with the physical response times governing the system evolution (that is, to the base of the fast responding ocean surface layer). The deeper ocean beneath this layer varies on time scales several orders of magnitude slower than the atmosphere and surface ocean, and therefore the boundary between the upper and deep ocean represents a more reasonable fixed boundary condition.

Observational constraints on the global atmospheric CO2 budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tans, Pieter P.; Fung, Inez Y.; Takahashi, Taro

1990-01-01

Observed atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and data on the partial pressures of CO2 in surface ocean waters are combined to identify globally significant sources and sinks of CO2. The atmospheric data are compared with boundary layer concentrations calculated with the transport fields generated by a general circulation model (GCM) for specified source-sink distributions. In the model the observed north-south atmospheric concentration gradient can be maintained only if sinks for CO2 are greater in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. The observed differences between the partial pressure of CO2 in the surface waters of the Northern Hemisphere and the atmosphere are too small for the oceans to be the major sink of fossil fuel CO2. Therefore, a large amount of the CO2 is apparently absorbed on the continents by terrestrial ecosystems.

Climate model biases and statistical downscaling for application in hydrologic model

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change impact studies use global climate model (GCM) simulations to define future temperature and precipitation. The best available bias-corrected GCM output was obtained from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). CMIP5 data (temperature and precipitation) are available in d...

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A. D.; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.; Tsigaridis, K.

2017-07-01

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) is a three-dimensional General Circulation Model (GCM) developed at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies for the modeling of atmospheres of solar system and exoplanetary terrestrial planets. Its parent model, known as ModelE2, is used to simulate modern Earth and near-term paleo-Earth climates. ROCKE-3D is an ongoing effort to expand the capabilities of ModelE2 to handle a broader range of atmospheric conditions, including higher and lower atmospheric pressures, more diverse chemistries and compositions, larger and smaller planet radii and gravity, different rotation rates (from slower to more rapid than modern Earth’s, including synchronous rotation), diverse ocean and land distributions and topographies, and potential basic biosphere functions. The first aim of ROCKE-3D is to model planetary atmospheres on terrestrial worlds within the solar system such as paleo-Earth, modern and paleo-Mars, paleo-Venus, and Saturn’s moon Titan. By validating the model for a broad range of temperatures, pressures, and atmospheric constituents, we can then further expand its capabilities to those exoplanetary rocky worlds that have been discovered in the past, as well as those to be discovered in the future. We also discuss the current and near-future capabilities of ROCKE-3D as a community model for studying planetary and exoplanetary atmospheres.

Resolving Orbital and Climate Keys of Earth and Extraterrestrial Environments with Dynamics (ROCKE-3D) 1.0: A General Circulation Model for Simulating the Climates of Rocky Planets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Way, M. J.; Aleinov, I.; Amundsen, David S.; Chandler, M. A.; Clune, T. L.; Del Genio, A.; Fujii, Y.; Kelley, M.; Kiang, N. Y.; Sohl, L.;

State-Dependence of the Climate Sensitivity in Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfister, Patrik L.; Stocker, Thomas F.

2017-10-01

Growing evidence from general circulation models (GCMs) indicates that the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) depends on the magnitude of forcing, which is commonly referred to as state-dependence. We present a comprehensive assessment of ECS state-dependence in Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) by analyzing millennial simulations with sustained 2×CO2 and 4×CO2 forcings. We compare different extrapolation methods and show that ECS is smaller in the higher-forcing scenario in 12 out of 15 EMICs, in contrast to the opposite behavior reported from GCMs. In one such EMIC, the Bern3D-LPX model, this state-dependence is mainly due to the weakening sea ice-albedo feedback in the Southern Ocean, which depends on model configuration. Due to ocean-mixing adjustments, state-dependence is only detected hundreds of years after the abrupt forcing, highlighting the need for long model integrations. Adjustments to feedback parametrizations of EMICs may be necessary if GCM intercomparisons confirm an opposite state-dependence.

SDSM-DC: A smarter approach to downscaling for decision-making? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, R. L.; Dawson, C. W.

2011-12-01

General Circulation Model (GCM) output has been used for downscaling and impact assessments for at least 25 years. Downscaling methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to human and natural systems. However, there are relatively few instances where these analyses have translated into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that conventional ';top down' downscaling typically yields very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and local scales. Consequently, there are growing calls to use downscaling tools in smarter ways that refocus attention on the decision problem rather than on the climate modelling per se. The talk begins with an overview of various application of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) over the last decade. This sample offers insights to downscaling practice in terms of regions and sectors of interest, modes of application and adaptation outcomes. The decision-centred rationale and functionality of the latest version of SDSM is then explained. This new downscaling tool does not require GCM input but enables the user to generate plausible daily weather scenarios that may be informed by climate model and/or palaeoenvironmental information. Importantly, the tool is intended for stress-testing adaptation options rather than for exhaustive analysis of uncertainty components. The approach is demonstrated by downscaling multi-basin, multi-elevation temperature and precipitation scenarios for the Upper Colorado River Basin. These scenarios are used alongside other narratives of future conditions that might potential affect the security of water supplies, and for evaluating steps that can be taken to manage these risks.

SDSM-DC: A smarter approach to downscaling for decision-making? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, R. L.; Dawson, C. W.

2013-12-01

General Circulation Model (GCM) output has been used for downscaling and impact assessments for at least 25 years. Downscaling methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to human and natural systems. However, there are relatively few instances where these analyses have translated into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that conventional ';top down' downscaling typically yields very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and local scales. Consequently, there are growing calls to use downscaling tools in smarter ways that refocus attention on the decision problem rather than on the climate modelling per se. The talk begins with an overview of various application of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) over the last decade. This sample offers insights to downscaling practice in terms of regions and sectors of interest, modes of application and adaptation outcomes. The decision-centred rationale and functionality of the latest version of SDSM is then explained. This new downscaling tool does not require GCM input but enables the user to generate plausible daily weather scenarios that may be informed by climate model and/or palaeoenvironmental information. Importantly, the tool is intended for stress-testing adaptation options rather than for exhaustive analysis of uncertainty components. The approach is demonstrated by downscaling multi-basin, multi-elevation temperature and precipitation scenarios for the Upper Colorado River Basin. These scenarios are used alongside other narratives of future conditions that might potential affect the security of water supplies, and for evaluating steps that can be taken to manage these risks.

Examining global electricity supply vulnerability to climate change using a high-fidelity hydropower dam model.

PubMed

Turner, Sean W D; Ng, Jia Yi; Galelli, Stefano

2017-07-15

An important and plausible impact of a changing global climate is altered power generation from hydroelectric dams. Here we project 21st century global hydropower production by forcing a coupled, global hydrological and dam model with three General Circulation Model (GCM) projections run under two emissions scenarios. Dams are simulated using a detailed model that accounts for plant specifications, storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry and realistic, optimized operations. We show that the inclusion of these features can have a non-trivial effect on the simulated response of hydropower production to changes in climate. Simulation results highlight substantial uncertainty in the direction of change in globally aggregated hydropower production (~-5 to +5% change in mean global production by the 2080s under a high emissions scenario, depending on GCM). Several clearly impacted hotspots are identified, the most prominent of which encompasses the Mediterranean countries in southern Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East. In this region, hydropower production is projected to be reduced by approximately 40% on average by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. After accounting for each country's dependence on hydropower for meeting its current electricity demands, the Balkans countries emerge as the most vulnerable (~5-20% loss in total national electricity generation depending on country). On the flipside, a handful of countries in Scandinavia and central Asia are projected to reap a significant increase in total electrical production (~5-15%) without investing in new power generation facilities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examining global electricity supply vulnerability to climate change using a high-fidelity hydropower dam model

DOE PAGES

Turner, Sean W. D.; Ng, Jia Yi; Galelli, Stefano

2017-03-07

Here, an important and plausible impact of a changing global climate is altered power generation from hydroelectric dams. Here we project 21st century global hydropower production by forcing a coupled, global hydrological and dam model with three General Circulation Model (GCM) projections run under two emissions scenarios. Dams are simulated using a detailed model that accounts for plant specifications, storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry and realistic, optimized operations. We show that the inclusion of these features can have a non-trivial effect on the simulated response of hydropower production to changes in climate. Simulation results highlight substantial uncertainty in the direction ofmore » change in globally aggregated hydropower production (~–5 to + 5% change in mean global production by the 2080s under a high emissions scenario, depending on GCM). Several clearly impacted hotspots are identified, the most prominent of which encompasses the Mediterranean countries in southern Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East. In this region, hydropower production is projected to be reduced by approximately 40% on average by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. After accounting for each country's dependence on hydropower for meeting its current electricity demands, the Balkans countries emerge as the most vulnerable (~ 5–20% loss in total national electricity generation depending on country). On the flipside, a handful of countries in Scandinavia and central Asia are projected to reap a significant increase in total electrical production (~ 5–15%) without investing in new power generation facilities.« less

Examining global electricity supply vulnerability to climate change using a high-fidelity hydropower dam model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Ng, Jia Yi; Galelli, Stefano

Here, an important and plausible impact of a changing global climate is altered power generation from hydroelectric dams. Here we project 21st century global hydropower production by forcing a coupled, global hydrological and dam model with three General Circulation Model (GCM) projections run under two emissions scenarios. Dams are simulated using a detailed model that accounts for plant specifications, storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry and realistic, optimized operations. We show that the inclusion of these features can have a non-trivial effect on the simulated response of hydropower production to changes in climate. Simulation results highlight substantial uncertainty in the direction ofmore » change in globally aggregated hydropower production (~–5 to + 5% change in mean global production by the 2080s under a high emissions scenario, depending on GCM). Several clearly impacted hotspots are identified, the most prominent of which encompasses the Mediterranean countries in southern Europe, northern Africa and the Middle East. In this region, hydropower production is projected to be reduced by approximately 40% on average by the end of the century under a high emissions scenario. After accounting for each country's dependence on hydropower for meeting its current electricity demands, the Balkans countries emerge as the most vulnerable (~ 5–20% loss in total national electricity generation depending on country). On the flipside, a handful of countries in Scandinavia and central Asia are projected to reap a significant increase in total electrical production (~ 5–15%) without investing in new power generation facilities.« less

The Influence of Solar Proton Events in Solar Cycle 23 on the Neutral Middle Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; vonKonig, Miriam; Anderson, John; Roble, Raymond G.; McPeters, Richard D.; Fleming, Eric L.; Russell, James M.

2004-01-01

Solar proton events (SPEs) can cause changes in constituents in the Earth's middle atmosphere. The highly energetic protons cause ionizations, excitations, dissociations, and dissociative ionizations of the background constituents, which lead to the production of HO(x) (H, OH, HO2) and NO(y) (N, NO, NO2, NO3, N2O5, HNO3, HO2NO2, ClONO2, BrONO2). The HO(x) increases lead to short-lived ozone decreases in the mesosphere and upper stratosphere due to the short lifetimes of the HO, constituents. The NO(x) increases lead to long-lived stratospheric ozone changes because of the long lifetime of NO(y) constituents in this region. Solar cycle 23 was quite active with SPEs and very large fluxes of high energy protons occurred in July and November 2000, November 200 1, and April 2002. Smaller, but still substantial, proton fluxes impacted the Earth during other months in the 1997-2003 time period. The impact of the very large SPEs on the neutral middle atmosphere during solar cycle 23 will be discussed, including the HO(x), NO(y), ozone variations and induced atmospheric transport changes. Two multi-dimensional models, the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Two-dimensional (2D) Model and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Mesosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIME-GCM), were used in computing the influence of the SPEs. The results of the GSFC 2D Model and the TIME-GCM will be shown along with comparisons to the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) and Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet 2 (SBUV/2) instruments.

DREAM Mediated Regulation of GCM1 in the Human Placental Trophoblast

PubMed Central

Baczyk, Dora; Kibschull, Mark; Mellstrom, Britt; Levytska, Khrystyna; Rivas, Marcos; Drewlo, Sascha; Lye, Stephen J.; Naranjo, Jose R.; Kingdom, John C. P.

2013-01-01

The trophoblast transcription factor glial cell missing-1 (GCM1) regulates differentiation of placental cytotrophoblasts into the syncytiotrophoblast layer in contact with maternal blood. Reduced placental expression of GCM1 and abnormal syncytiotrophoblast structure are features of hypertensive disorder of pregnancy – preeclampsia. In-silico techniques identified the calcium-regulated transcriptional repressor – DREAM (Downstream Regulatory Element Antagonist Modulator) - as a candidate for GCM1 gene expression. Our objective was to determine if DREAM represses GCM1 regulated syncytiotrophoblast formation. EMSA and ChIP assays revealed a direct interaction between DREAM and the GCM1 promoter. siRNA-mediated DREAM silencing in cell culture and placental explant models significantly up-regulated GCM1 expression and reduced cytotrophoblast proliferation. DREAM calcium dependency was verified using ionomycin. Furthermore, the increased DREAM protein expression in preeclamptic placental villi was predominantly nuclear, coinciding with an overall increase in sumolylated DREAM and correlating inversely with GCM1 levels. In conclusion, our data reveal a calcium-regulated pathway whereby GCM1-directed villous trophoblast differentiation is repressed by DREAM. This pathway may be relevant to disease prevention via calcium-supplementation. PMID:23300953

Climate Simulations from Super-parameterized and Conventional General Circulation Models with a Third-order Turbulence Closure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Kuan-Man; Cheng, Anning

2014-05-01

A high-resolution cloud-resolving model (CRM) embedded in a general circulation model (GCM) is an attractive alternative for climate modeling because it replaces all traditional cloud parameterizations and explicitly simulates cloud physical processes in each grid column of the GCM. Such an approach is called "Multiscale Modeling Framework." MMF still needs to parameterize the subgrid-scale (SGS) processes associated with clouds and large turbulent eddies because circulations associated with planetary boundary layer (PBL) and in-cloud turbulence are unresolved by CRMs with horizontal grid sizes on the order of a few kilometers. A third-order turbulence closure (IPHOC) has been implemented in the CRM component of the super-parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (SPCAM). IPHOC is used to predict (or diagnose) fractional cloudiness and the variability of temperature and water vapor at scales that are not resolved on the CRM's grid. This model has produced promised results, especially for low-level cloud climatology, seasonal variations and diurnal variations (Cheng and Xu 2011, 2013a, b; Xu and Cheng 2013a, b). Because of the enormous computational cost of SPCAM-IPHOC, which is 400 times of a conventional CAM, we decided to bypass the CRM and implement the IPHOC directly to CAM version 5 (CAM5). IPHOC replaces the PBL/stratocumulus, shallow convection, and cloud macrophysics parameterizations in CAM5. Since there are large discrepancies in the spatial and temporal scales between CRM and CAM5, IPHOC used in CAM5 has to be modified from that used in SPCAM. In particular, we diagnose all second- and third-order moments except for the fluxes. These prognostic and diagnostic moments are used to select a double-Gaussian probability density function to describe the SGS variability. We also incorporate a diagnostic PBL height parameterization to represent the strong inversion above PBL. The goal of this study is to compare the simulation of the climatology from these three models (CAM5, CAM5-IPHOC and SPCAM-IPHOC), with emphasis on low-level clouds and precipitation. Detailed comparisons of scatter diagrams among the monthly-mean low-level cloudiness, PBL height, surface relative humidity and lower tropospheric stability (LTS) reveal the relative strengths and weaknesses for five coastal low-cloud regions among the three models. Observations from CloudSat and CALIPSO and ECMWF Interim reanalysis are used as the truths for the comparisons. We found that the standard CAM5 underestimates cloudiness and produces small cloud fractions at low PBL heights that contradict with observations. CAM5-IPHOC tends to overestimate low clouds but the ranges of LTS and PBL height variations are most realistic. SPCAM-IPHOC seems to produce most realistic results with relatively consistent results from one region to another. Further comparisons with other atmospheric environmental variables will be helpful to reveal the causes of model deficiencies so that SPCAM-IPHOC results will provide guidance to the other two models.

Evaluation of a Cloud Resolving Model Using TRMM Observations for Multiscale Modeling Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Posselt, Derek J.; L'Ecuyer, Tristan; Tao, Wei-Kuo; Hou, Arthur Y.; Stephens, Graeme L.

2007-01-01

The climate change simulation community is moving toward use of global cloud resolving models (CRMs), however, current computational resources are not sufficient to run global CRMs over the hundreds of years necessary to produce climate change estimates. As an intermediate step between conventional general circulation models (GCMs) and global CRMs, many climate analysis centers are embedding a CRM in each grid cell of a conventional GCM. These Multiscale Modeling Frameworks (MMFs) represent a theoretical advance over the use of conventional GCM cloud and convection parameterizations, but have been shown to exhibit an overproduction of precipitation in the tropics during the northern hemisphere summer. In this study, simulations of clouds, precipitation, and radiation over the South China Sea using the CRM component of the NASA Goddard MMF are evaluated using retrievals derived from the instruments aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite platform for a 46-day time period that spans 5 May - 20 June 1998. The NASA Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is forced with observed largescale forcing derived from soundings taken during the intensive observing period of the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment. It is found that the GCE configuration used in the NASA Goddard MMF responds too vigorously to the imposed large-scale forcing, accumulating too much moisture and producing too much cloud cover during convective phases, and overdrying the atmosphere and suppressing clouds during monsoon break periods. Sensitivity experiments reveal that changes to ice cloud microphysical parameters have a relatively large effect on simulated clouds, precipitation, and radiation, while changes to grid spacing and domain length have little effect on simulation results. The results motivate a more detailed and quantitative exploration of the sources and magnitude of the uncertainty associated with specified cloud microphysical parameters in the CRM components of MMFs.

Seasonal predictability of Arctic Sea Ice: assessing its limits and potential in a GCM and implications for observations.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.

2012-12-01

Arctic sea ice has exhibited a dramatic decrease both in area and thickness over the recent decades, particularly during the summer months. This decrease has led to growing interest in the potential predictability of summer sea ice, spurred in part by the socioeconomic implications. Here we present results of several parallel experiments designed to assess and understand the limits and potential for seasonal predictability of Arctic sea ice, with an emphasis on the summer minimum. Building on our experience from the SEARCH Outlook, we present results of a coupled general circulation model (GCM) hindcast simulation of Arctic summer sea ice variability for the satellite period (1979-present). These are initialized with spring sea ice volume anomalies obtained from a modelling and assimilation system, considered to be a close representation of reality. We show that there is significant predictability, yet the stochastic forcing imparted mainly by the atmosphere can lead to large errors in the hindcast. The model, however, can simulate anomalous runs that lie beyond a Gaussian distribution. Additionally, we investigate the regional characteristics of predictability and its links to sea ice dynamics and the spatio-temporal behavior of sea ice anomalies. We show a distinct difference between models. Unfortunately, observational data of thickness are not yet detailed enough to assess the models. Our results indicate the potential for detailed ice thickness observations in improving regional predictability. Finally, we discuss the importance of experiment design in predictability experiments, and show that predictions made with models that have a large mean state bias in sea ice require a careful initialization in order to fully capture all initial value predictability.

Modeling of interactions between biosphere and atmosphere on the global scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baer, Ferdinand; Mintz, Y.

1990-01-01

Simulations of weather and climate with general circulation models show that the circulation and rainfall are sensitive to the transfers of radiation, sensible heat, water vapor, and momentum across the atmosphere land surface interface. Because, in nature, these transfers depend in large measure on the morphological and physiological characteristics of the surface vegetation, an interactive biosphere is needed for GCM's. The simple model of the biosphere (SiB) that the authors have constructed is based on the recognized difference between ground cover vegetation (grasses and other herbaceous plants) and canopy vegetation (trees and shrubs), where the latter act like elevated blocks of porous material which efficiently extract momentum from the air that flows through them; by a large number of multiple reflections enhance the absorption of the incident solar radiation; when the canopy is wet, act like well ventilated psychrometers which extract sensible heat from the air and produce a negative Bowen ratio; and, in all of these ways, behave differently from ground cover vegetation. The complete set of governing equations of SiB, whereby the various allowable combinations of trees, ground covers, and bare ground, in interaction with the atmosphere, determine all of the vegetation dependent transfers at the land surface, have been presented and described.

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel

1991-01-01

General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring.

The effect of metallicity on the atmospheres of exoplanets with fully coupled 3D hydrodynamics, equilibrium chemistry, and radiative transfer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drummond, B.; Mayne, N. J.; Baraffe, I.; Tremblin, P.; Manners, J.; Amundsen, D. S.; Goyal, J.; Acreman, D.

2018-05-01

In this work, we have performed a series of simulations of the atmosphere of GJ 1214b assuming different metallicities using the Met Office Unified Model (UM). The UM is a general circulation model (GCM) that solves the deep, non-hydrostatic equations of motion and uses a flexible and accurate radiative transfer scheme, based on the two-stream and correlated-k approximations, to calculate the heating rates. In this work we consistently couple a well-tested Gibbs energy minimisation scheme to solve for the chemical equilibrium abundances locally in each grid cell for a general set of elemental abundances, further improving the flexibility and accuracy of the model. As the metallicity of the atmosphere is increased we find significant changes in the dynamical and thermal structure, with subsequent implications for the simulated phase curve. The trends that we find are qualitatively consistent with previous works, though with quantitative differences. We investigate in detail the effect of increasing the metallicity by splitting the mechanism into constituents, involving the mean molecular weight, the heat capacity and the opacities. We find the opacity effect to be the dominant mechanism in altering the circulation and thermal structure. This result highlights the importance of accurately computing the opacities and radiative transfer in 3D GCMs.

The Sensitivity of the North American Monsoon to Deglacial Climate Change in Proxies and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhattacharya, T.; Tierney, J. E.

2017-12-01

The North American Monsoon (NAM), which brings summer rainfall to the arid US Southwest and northwestern Mexico, remains one of the least understood monsoon systems. Model simulations produce divergent NAM responses to future anthropogenic warming, and many paleoclimatic records from the NAM region are more sensitive to winter rainfall than the summertime circulation. As a result, we have an incomplete understanding of NAM sensitivity to past and future global climate change. Our work seeks to improve understanding of NAM dynamics using new proxy records and model simulations. We have developed quantitative reconstructions of NAM strength since the LGM ( 21 ka BP) using leaf wax biomarkers (e.g. dD of n-acids) from marine sediment cores in the Gulf of California. We contrast these proxy records with idealized GCM simulations (i.e. CESM1.2) to diagnose the mechanisms behind NAM responses to LGM boundary conditions and abrupt deglacial climate events. Our results suggest that ice-sheet induced changes in atmospheric circulation acted in concert with local changes in Gulf of California SSTs to modulate the late glacial NAM. This work has important implications for our understanding of NAM dynamics, its relationship with other monsoon systems, and its sensitivity to past and future global climate change.

Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part I: summer monsoon climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Douville, Hervé

2011-10-01

The CNRM atmospheric general circulation model Arpege-Climat is relaxed towards atmospheric reanalyses outside the 10°S-32°N 30°W-50°E domain in order to disentangle the regional versus large-scale sources of climatological biases and interannual variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). On the one hand, the main climatological features of the monsoon, including the spatial distribution of summer precipitation, are only weakly improved by the nudging, thereby suggesting the regional origin of the Arpege-Climat biases. On the other hand, the nudging technique is relatively efficient to control the interannual variability of the WAM dynamics, though the impact on rainfall variability is less clear. Additional sensitivity experiments focusing on the strong 1994 summer monsoon suggest that the weak sensitivity of the model biases is not an artifact of the nudging design, but the evidence that regional physical processes are the main limiting factors for a realistic simulation of monsoon circulation and precipitation in the Arpege-Climat model. Sensitivity experiments to soil moisture boundary conditions are also conducted and highlight the relevance of land-atmosphere coupling for the amplification of precipitation biases. Nevertheless, the land surface hydrology is not the main explanation for the model errors that are rather due to deficiencies in the atmospheric physics. The intraseasonal timescale and the model internal variability are discussed in a companion paper.

Factors Affecting the Latitudinal Location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone in a GCM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.; Chen, Baode

2002-01-01

The dominant role of the latitudinal peak of the sea surface temperature (SST) in determining the latitudinal location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) is well-known. However, the roles of the other factors are less well-known and are the topic of this study. These other factors include the inertial stability, the interaction between convection and surface fluxes and the interaction between convection and radiation. Since these interactions involve convection, in a model they involve the cumulus parameterization scheme. These factors are studied with a general circulation model with uniform SST and solar angle. Under the aforementioned model settings, the latitudinal location of the ITCZ is the latitude where the balance of two types of attraction on the ITCZ, both due to earth's rotation, exists. Directly related to the Coriolis parameter, the first type pulls the ITCZ toward the equator and is not sensitive to model design changes. Related to the convective circulation, the second type pulls the ITCZ poleward and is sensitive to model design changes. Due to the shape and the magnitude of the attractors, the balance of the two types of attractions is reached either at the equator or more than 10 degrees away from the equator. The former case results in a single ITCZ over the equator and the latter case a double ITCZ straddling the equator.

Combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, André; Krandick, Annegret; Gebbie, Jake; Marchal, Olivier; Dutkiewicz, Stephanie; Losch, Martin; Kurahashi-Nakamura, Takasumi; Tharammal, Thejna

2013-04-01

Carbon and water isotopes are included as passive tracers in the MIT general circulation model (MITgcm). The implementation of the carbon isotopes is based on the existing MITgcm carbon cycle component and involves the fractionation processes during photosynthesis and air-sea gas exchange. Special care is given to the use of a real freshwater flux boundary condition in conjunction with the nonlinear free surface of the ocean model. The isotopic content of precipitation and water vapor is obtained from an atmospheric GCM (the NCAR CAM3) and mapped onto the MITgcm grid system, but the kinetic fractionation during evaporation is treated explicitly in the ocean model. In a number of simulations, we test the sensitivity of the carbon isotope distributions to the formulation of fractionation during photosynthesis and compare the results to modern observations of δ13C and Δ14C from GEOSECS, WOCE and CLIVAR. Similarly, we compare the resulting distribution of oxygen isotopes to modern δ18O data from the NASA GISS Global Seawater Oxygen-18 Database. The overall agreement is good, but there are discrepancies in the carbon isotope composition of the surface water and the oxygen isotope composition of the intermediate and deep waters. The combined simulation of carbon and water isotopes in a global ocean model will provide a framework for studying present and past states of ocean circulation such as postulated from deep-sea sediment records.

The GCM-Oriented CALIPSO Cloud Product (CALIPSO-GOCCP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chepfer, H.; Bony, S.; Winker, D.; Cesana, G.; Dufresne, J. L.; Minnis, P.; Stubenrauch, C. J.; Zeng, S.

2010-01-01

This article presents the GCM-Oriented Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) Cloud Product (GOCCP) designed to evaluate the cloudiness simulated by general circulation models (GCMs). For this purpose, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization L1 data are processed following the same steps as in a lidar simulator used to diagnose the model cloud cover that CALIPSO would observe from space if the satellite was flying above an atmosphere similar to that predicted by the GCM. Instantaneous profiles of the lidar scattering ratio (SR) are first computed at the highest horizontal resolution of the data but at the vertical resolution typical of current GCMs, and then cloud diagnostics are inferred from these profiles: vertical distribution of cloud fraction, horizontal distribution of low, middle, high, and total cloud fractions, instantaneous SR profiles, and SR histograms as a function of height. Results are presented for different seasons (January-March 2007-2008 and June-August 2006-2008), and their sensitivity to parameters of the lidar simulator is investigated. It is shown that the choice of the vertical resolution and of the SR threshold value used for cloud detection can modify the cloud fraction by up to 0.20, particularly in the shallow cumulus regions. The tropical marine low-level cloud fraction is larger during nighttime (by up to 0.15) than during daytime. The histograms of SR characterize the cloud types encountered in different regions. The GOCCP high-level cloud amount is similar to that from the TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). The low-level and middle-level cloud fractions are larger than those derived from passive remote sensing (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer-Cloud and Earth Radiant Energy System Polarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectances, TOVS Path B, AIRS-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique) because the latter only provide information on the uppermost cloud layer.

A New Approach for Coupled GCM Sensitivity Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirtman, B. P.; Duane, G. S.

2011-12-01

A new multi-model approach for coupled GCM sensitivity studies is presented. The purpose of the sensitivity experiments is to understand why two different coupled models have such large differences in their respective climate simulations. In the application presented here, the differences between the coupled models using the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) are examined. The intent is to isolate which component of the air-sea fluxes is most responsible for the differences between the coupled models and for the errors in their respective coupled simulations. The procedure is to simultaneously couple the two different atmospheric component models to a single ocean general circulation model (OGCM), in this case the Modular Ocean Model (MOM) developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). Each atmospheric component model experiences the same SST produced by the OGCM, but the OGCM is simultaneously coupled to both AGCMs using a cross coupling strategy. In the first experiment, the OGCM is coupled to the heat and fresh water flux from the NCAR AGCM (Community Atmospheric Model; CAM) and the momentum flux from the COLA AGCM. Both AGCMs feel the same SST. In the second experiment, the OGCM is coupled to the heat and fresh water flux from the COLA AGCM and the momentum flux from the CAM AGCM. Again, both atmospheric component models experience the same SST. By comparing these two experimental simulations with control simulations where only one AGCM is used, it is possible to argue which of the flux components are most responsible for the differences in the simulations and their respective errors. Based on these sensitivity experiments we conclude that the tropical ocean warm bias in the COLA coupled model is due to errors in the heat flux, and that the erroneous westward shift in the tropical Pacific cold tongue minimum in the NCAR model is due errors in the momentum flux. All the coupled simulations presented here have warm biases along the eastern boundary of the tropical oceans suggesting that the problem is common to both AGCMs. In terms of interannual variability in the tropical Pacific, the CAM momentum flux is responsible for the erroneous westward extension of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and errors in the COLA momentum flux cause the erroneous eastward migration of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. These conclusions depend on assuming that the error due to the OGCM can be neglected.

Representations of the Stratospheric Polar Vortices in Versions 1 and 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pawson, S.; Stolarski, R.S.; Nielsen, J.E.; Perlwitz, J.; Oman, L.; Waugh, D.

2009-01-01

This study will document the behavior of the polar vortices in two versions of the GEOS CCM. Both versions of the model include the same stratospheric chemistry, They differ in the underlying circulation model. Version 1 of the GEOS CCM is based on the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 4, general circulation model which includes the finite-volume (Lin-Rood) dynamical core and physical parameterizations from Community Climate Model, Version 3. GEOS CCM Version 2 is based on the GEOS-5 GCM that includes a different tropospheric physics package. Baseline simulations of both models, performed at two-degree spatial resolution, show some improvements in Version 2, but also some degradation, In the Antarctic, both models show an over-persistent stratospheric polar vortex with late breakdown, but the year-to-year variations that are overestimated in Version I are more realistic in Version 2. The implications of this for the interactions with tropospheric climate, the Southern Annular Mode, will be discussed. In the Arctic both model versions show a dominant dynamically forced variabi;ity, but Version 2 has a persistent warm bias in the low stratosphere and there are seasonal differences in the simulations. These differences will be quantified in terms of climate change and ozone loss. Impacts of model resolution, using simulations at one-degree and half-degree, and changes in physical parameterizations (especially the gravity wave drag) will be discussed.

Abrupt climate change around 4 ka BP: Role of the Thermohaline circulation as indicated by a GCM experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shaowu; Zhou, Tianjun; Cai, Jingning; Zhu, Jinhong; Xie, Zhihui; Gong, Daoyi

2004-04-01

A great deal of palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic evidence suggests that a predominant temperature drop and an aridification occurred at ca. 4.0 ka BP. Palaeoclimate studies in China support this dedution. The collapse of ancient civilizations at ca. 4.0 ka BP in the Nile Valley and Mesopotamia has been attributed to climate-induced aridification. A widespread alternation of the ancient cultures was also found in China at ca. 4.0 ka BP in concert with the collapse of the civilizations in the Old World. Palaeoclimatic studies indicate that the abrupt climate change at 4.0 ka BP is one of the realizations of the cold phase in millennial scale climate oscillations, which may be related to the modulation of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC) over the Atlantic Ocean. Therefore, this study conducts a numerical experiment of a GCM with SST forcing to simulate the impact of the weakening of the THC. Results show a drop in temperature from North Europe, the northern middle East Asia, and northern East Asia and a significant reduction of precipitation in East Africa, the Middle East, the Indian Peninsula, and the Yellow River Valley. This seems to support the idea that coldness and aridification at ca. 4.0 ka BP was caused by the weakening of the THC.

Modern Climate Analogues of Late-Quaternary Paleoclimates for the Western United States.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mock, Cary Jeffrey

This study examined spatial variations of modern and late-Quaternary climates for the western United States. Synoptic climatological analyses of the modern record identified the predominate climatic controls that normally produce the principal modes of spatial climatic variability. They also provided a modern standard to assess past climates. Maps of the month-to-month changes in 500 mb heights, sea-level pressure, temperature, and precipitation illustrated how different climatic controls govern the annual cycle of climatic response. The patterns of precipitation ratios, precipitation bar graphs, and the seasonal precipitation maximum provided additional insight into how different climatic controls influence spatial climatic variations. Synoptic-scale patterns from general circulation model (GCM) simulations or from analyses of climatic indices were used as the basis for finding modern climate analogues for 18 ka and 9 ka. Composite anomaly maps of atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and temperature were compared with effective moisture maps compiled from proxy data to infer how the patterns, which were evident from the proxy data, were generated. The analyses of the modern synoptic climatology indicate that smaller-scale climatic controls must be considered along with larger-scale ones in order to explain patterns of spatial climate heterogeneity. Climatic extremes indicate that changes in the spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality are the exception rather than the rule, reflecting the strong influence of smaller-scale controls. Modern climate analogues for both 18 ka and 9 ka clearly depict the dry Northwest/wet Southwest contrast that is suggested by GCM simulations and paleoclimatic evidence. 18 ka analogues also show the importance of smaller-scale climatic controls in explaining spatial climatic variation in the Northwest and northern Great Plains. 9 ka analogues provide climatological explanations for patterns of spatial heterogeneity over several mountainous areas as suggested by paleoclimatic evidence. Modern analogues of past climates supplement modeling approaches by providing information below the resolution of model simulations. Analogues can be used to examine the controls of spatial paleoclimatic variation if sufficient instrumental data and paleoclimatic evidence are available, and if one carefully exercises uniformitarianism when extrapolating modern relationships to the past.

Artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression model using principal components to estimate rainfall over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soares dos Santos, T.; Mendes, D.; Rodrigues Torres, R.

2016-01-01

Several studies have been devoted to dynamic and statistical downscaling for analysis of both climate variability and climate change. This paper introduces an application of artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multiple linear regression (MLR) by principal components to estimate rainfall in South America. This method is proposed for downscaling monthly precipitation time series over South America for three regions: the Amazon; northeastern Brazil; and the La Plata Basin, which is one of the regions of the planet that will be most affected by the climate change projected for the end of the 21st century. The downscaling models were developed and validated using CMIP5 model output and observed monthly precipitation. We used general circulation model (GCM) experiments for the 20th century (RCP historical; 1970-1999) and two scenarios (RCP 2.6 and 8.5; 2070-2100). The model test results indicate that the ANNs significantly outperform the MLR downscaling of monthly precipitation variability.

Seasonal prediction skill of winter temperature over North India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tiwari, P. R.; Kar, S. C.; Mohanty, U. C.; Dey, S.; Kumari, S.; Sinha, P.

2016-04-01

The climatology, amplitude error, phase error, and mean square skill score (MSSS) of temperature predictions from five different state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) have been examined for the winter (December-January-February) seasons over North India. In this region, temperature variability affects the phenological development processes of wheat crops and the grain yield. The GCM forecasts of temperature for a whole season issued in November from various organizations are compared with observed gridded temperature data obtained from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period 1982-2009. The MSSS indicates that the models have skills of varying degrees. Predictions of maximum and minimum temperature obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system model (NCEP_CFSv2) are compared with station level observations from the Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment (SASE). It has been found that when the model temperatures are corrected to account the bias in the model and actual orography, the predictions are able to delineate the observed trend compared to the trend without orography correction.

Understanding the tropical cloud feedback from an analysis of the circulation and stability regimes simulated from an upgraded multiscale modeling framework

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Kuan-Man; Cheng, Anning

As revealed from studies using conventional general circulation models (GCMs), the thermodynamic contribution to the tropical cloud feedback dominates the dynamic contribution, but these models have difficulty in simulating the subsidence regimes in the tropics. In this study, we analyze the tropical cloud feedback from a 2 K sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation experiment performed with a multiscale modeling framework (MMF). The MMF explicitly represents cloud processes using 2-D cloud-resolving models with an advanced higher-order turbulence closure in each atmospheric column of the host GCM. We sort the monthly mean cloud properties and cloud radiative effects according to circulation andmore » stability regimes. Here, we find that the regime-sorted dynamic changes dominate the thermodynamic changes in terms of the absolute magnitude. The dynamic changes in the weak subsidence regimes exhibit strong negative cloud feedback due to increases in shallow cumulus and deep clouds while those in strongly convective and moderate-to-strong subsidence regimes have opposite signs, resulting in a small contribution to cloud feedback. On the other hand, the thermodynamic changes are large due to decreases in stratocumulus clouds in the moderate-to-strong subsidence regimes with small opposite changes in the weak subsidence and strongly convective regimes, resulting in a relatively large contribution to positive cloud feedback. The dynamic and thermodynamic changes contribute equally to positive cloud feedback and are relatively insensitive to stability in the moderate-to-strong subsidence regimes. But they are sensitive to stability changes from the SST increase in convective and weak subsidence regimes. Lastly, these results have implications for interpreting cloud feedback mechanisms.« less

Understanding the tropical cloud feedback from an analysis of the circulation and stability regimes simulated from an upgraded multiscale modeling framework

DOE PAGES

Xu, Kuan-Man; Cheng, Anning

2016-11-15

As revealed from studies using conventional general circulation models (GCMs), the thermodynamic contribution to the tropical cloud feedback dominates the dynamic contribution, but these models have difficulty in simulating the subsidence regimes in the tropics. In this study, we analyze the tropical cloud feedback from a 2 K sea surface temperature (SST) perturbation experiment performed with a multiscale modeling framework (MMF). The MMF explicitly represents cloud processes using 2-D cloud-resolving models with an advanced higher-order turbulence closure in each atmospheric column of the host GCM. We sort the monthly mean cloud properties and cloud radiative effects according to circulation andmore » stability regimes. Here, we find that the regime-sorted dynamic changes dominate the thermodynamic changes in terms of the absolute magnitude. The dynamic changes in the weak subsidence regimes exhibit strong negative cloud feedback due to increases in shallow cumulus and deep clouds while those in strongly convective and moderate-to-strong subsidence regimes have opposite signs, resulting in a small contribution to cloud feedback. On the other hand, the thermodynamic changes are large due to decreases in stratocumulus clouds in the moderate-to-strong subsidence regimes with small opposite changes in the weak subsidence and strongly convective regimes, resulting in a relatively large contribution to positive cloud feedback. The dynamic and thermodynamic changes contribute equally to positive cloud feedback and are relatively insensitive to stability in the moderate-to-strong subsidence regimes. But they are sensitive to stability changes from the SST increase in convective and weak subsidence regimes. Lastly, these results have implications for interpreting cloud feedback mechanisms.« less

Are there trends towards drier hydrological conditions in Central America?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hidalgo, H. G.

2013-12-01

A summary of hydrological projections at the end of the century from 30 General Circulation Models (GCMs) is presented; and several hydrometeorological parameters are analyzed to validate if there are hydroclimatological trends during the observational period (1982-2005) consistent with the GCMs results. At the end of the century the median of 30 GCM simulations projects a drier future for Tegucigalpa and San Jose, with a marked increment in evapotranspiration in the first half of the rainy season along with reductions of soil moisture. With respect to the observations (1982-2005): 1) the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index showed negative trends in the North Pacific coast of Costa Rica, the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and especially in southern Mexico (except the Yucatan Peninsula). Positive trends were found in the several parts of Central America, 2) the Palmer Drought Severity Index showed strong and consistent trends from Nicaragua to the North of Central America and southern Mexico (not including Yucatan), consistent with the direction of GCM projections; 3) negative precipitation trends in satellite data were found in Nicaragua, with strong trends in its Caribbean coast; 4) NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis precipitation showed strong negative trends in northern Central America, the Central Valley, the Dry Pacific of Costa Rica and the South-Pacific coast of Nicaragua, all consistent with the direction of GCM projections; and 5) station data showed no significant trends however, and 6) Reanalysis' temperature showed positive trends in southern Mexico (not including Yucatan) and negative trends in El Salvador. It can be concluded that several trends in drought indexes and precipitation are consistent with the future projected by the GCMs; that is, with some exceptions some of the trends were validated towards a drier future for the region, especially in the northern part.

A Dynamical Downscaling Approach with GCM Bias Corrections and Spectral Nudging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Z.; Yang, Z.

2013-12-01

To reduce the biases in the regional climate downscaling simulations, a dynamical downscaling approach with GCM bias corrections and spectral nudging is developed and assessed over North America. Regional climate simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model embedded in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). To reduce the GCM biases, the GCM climatological means and the variances of interannual variations are adjusted based on the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-NCAR global reanalysis products (NNRP) before using them to drive WRF which is the same as our previous method. In this study, we further introduce spectral nudging to reduce the RCM-based biases. Two sets of WRF experiments are performed with and without spectral nudging. All WRF experiments are identical except that the initial and lateral boundary conditions are derived from the NNRP, the original GCM output, and the bias corrected GCM output, respectively. The GCM-driven RCM simulations with bias corrections and spectral nudging (IDDng) are compared with those without spectral nudging (IDD) and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data to assess the additional reduction in RCM biases relative to the IDD approach. The results show that the spectral nudging introduces the effect of GCM bias correction into the RCM domain, thereby minimizing the climate drift resulting from the RCM biases. The GCM bias corrections and spectral nudging significantly improve the downscaled mean climate and extreme temperature simulations. Our results suggest that both GCM bias corrections or spectral nudging are necessary to reduce the error of downscaled climate. Only one of them does not guarantee better downscaling simulation. The new dynamical downscaling method can be applied to regional projection of future climate or downscaling of GCM sensitivity simulations. Annual mean RMSEs. The RMSEs are computed over the verification region by monthly mean data over 1981-2010. Experimental design

Interannual Variability in Global Dust Storm Initiation on Mars from a GCM with Orbit-Spin Coupling and Active Dust Lifting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mischna, M.; Shirley, J. H.; Newman, C. E.

2016-12-01

To first order, the occurrence and interannual variability of global dust storms (GDS) on Mars is attributable to two factors: the annual cycle of solar insolation (which delineates a specific `dust storm season'), and the changing spatial distribution and availability of dust at the surface. Recent work has now found a remarkable correspondence between the occurrence of GDS on Mars and years in which the orbital angular momentum of Mars is increasing during the dust storm season. A previously undefined acceleration term `couples' this orbital motion to the rotational motion of the planet and atmosphere, and small but persistent atmospheric accelerations (so-called `coupling term accelerations,' or CTA) change the atmospheric circulation in such a way as to seemingly be favorable to storm development. This becomes a third factor, then, that may regulate the occurrence and variability of GDS. Our prior work with the MarsWRF general circulation model (GCM) was performed either with no atmospheric dust, or with simplified, prescribed dust distributions, and illustrated the dual roles of both insolation and CTA on GDS variability. Recent advances in the MarsWRF GCM dust prescription can now tackle the remaining unaddressed factor: the role of dust availability in controlling the initiation of GDS. Simulations with both infinite and finite global sources of dust have been performed. For a prescribed dust lifting threshold, surface dust is removed from the surface, preferentially from locations with larger surface stress values, transported in the atmosphere and deposited at a later time. Compared to simulations without CTA, those with CTA show more realism in the variability of timing and magnitude of atmospheric dustiness during the dust storm season. For infinite surface dust, the primary dust lifting (peak wind stress) regions are spatially restricted, and year-to-year changes are largely due to variations in the CTA at these few locations. By contrast, in simulations with finite surface dust, the peak stress regions are rapidly exhausted, leading to a far greater distribution of primary dust lifting regions; hence, variations in the CTA over a wider area contribute to the interannual variability of GDS. Results from our suite of simulations will be shown, vis-à-vis the historical record of GDS on Mars.

Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachiiri, K.; Hargreaves, J. C.; Annan, J. D.; Oka, A.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Kawamiya, M.

2010-08-01

Recent studies have indicated that the uncertainty in the global carbon cycle may have a significant impact on the climate. Since state of the art models are too computationally expensive for it to be possible to explore their parametric uncertainty in anything approaching a comprehensive fashion, we have developed a simplified system for investigating this problem. By combining the strong points of general circulation models (GCMs), which contain detailed and complex processes, and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), which are quick and capable of large ensembles, we have developed a loosely coupled model (LCM) which can represent the outputs of a GCM-based Earth system model, using much smaller computational resources. We address the problem of relatively poor representation of precipitation within our EMIC, which prevents us from directly coupling it to a vegetation model, by coupling it to a precomputed transient simulation using a full GCM. The LCM consists of three components: an EMIC (MIROC-lite) which consists of a 2-D energy balance atmosphere coupled to a low resolution 3-D GCM ocean (COCO) including an ocean carbon cycle (an NPZD-type marine ecosystem model); a state of the art vegetation model (Sim-CYCLE); and a database of daily temperature, precipitation, and other necessary climatic fields to drive Sim-CYCLE from a precomputed transient simulation from a state of the art AOGCM. The transient warming of the climate system is calculated from MIROC-lite, with the global temperature anomaly used to select the most appropriate annual climatic field from the pre-computed AOGCM simulation which, in this case, is a 1% pa increasing CO2 concentration scenario. By adjusting the effective climate sensitivity (equivalent to the equilibrium climate sensitivity for an energy balance model) of MIROC-lite, the transient warming of the LCM could be adjusted to closely follow the low sensitivity (with an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 4.0 K) version of MIROC3.2. By tuning of the physical and biogeochemical parameters it was possible to reasonably reproduce the bulk physical and biogeochemical properties of previously published CO2 stabilisation scenarios for that model. As an example of an application of the LCM, the behavior of the high sensitivity version of MIROC3.2 (with a 6.3 K equilibrium climate sensitivity) is also demonstrated. Given the highly adjustable nature of the model, we believe that the LCM should be a very useful tool for studying uncertainty in global climate change, and we have named the model, JUMP-LCM, after the name of our research group (Japan Uncertainty Modelling Project).

Double-moment cloud microphysics scheme for the deep convection parameterization in the GFDL AM3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belochitski, A.; Donner, L.

2014-12-01

A double-moment cloud microphysical scheme originally developed by Morrision and Gettelman (2008) for the stratiform clouds and later adopted for the deep convection by Song and Zhang (2011) has been implemented in to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's atmospheric general circulation model AM3. The scheme treats cloud drop, cloud ice, rain, and snow number concentrations and mixing ratios as diagnostic variables and incorporates processes of autoconversion, self-collection, collection between hydrometeor species, sedimentation, ice nucleation, drop activation, homogeneous and heterogeneous freezing, and the Bergeron-Findeisen process. Such detailed representation of microphysical processes makes the scheme suitable for studying the interactions between aerosols and convection, as well as aerosols' indirect effects on clouds and their roles in climate change. The scheme is first tested in the single column version of the GFDL AM3 using forcing data obtained at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurment project's Southern Great Planes site. Scheme's impact on SCM simulations is discussed. As the next step, runs of the full atmospheric GCM incorporating the new parameterization are compared to the unmodified version of GFDL AM3. Global climatological fields and their variability are contrasted with those of the original version of the GCM. Impact on cloud radiative forcing and climate sensitivity is investigated.

Fast Simulators for Satellite Cloud Optical Centroid Pressure Retrievals, 1. Evaluation of OMI Cloud Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joiner, J.; Vasilkov, A. P.; Gupta, Pawan; Bhartia, P. K.; Veefkind, Pepijn; Sneep, Maarten; deHaan, Johan; Polonsky, Igor; Spurr, Robert

2011-01-01

We have developed a relatively simple scheme for simulating retrieved cloud optical centroid pressures (OCP) from satellite solar backscatter observations. We have compared simulator results with those from more detailed retrieval simulators that more fully account for the complex radiative transfer in a cloudy atmosphere. We used this fast simulator to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of cloud OCPs from the two OMI algorithms using collocated data from CloudSat and Aqua MODIS, a unique situation afforded by the A-train formation of satellites. We find that both OMI algorithms perform reasonably well and that the two algorithms agree better with each other than either does with the collocated CloudSat data. This indicates that patchy snow/ice, cloud 3D, and aerosol effects not simulated with the CloudSat data are affecting both algorithms similarly. We note that the collocation with CloudSat occurs mainly on the East side of OMI's swath. Therefore, we are not able to address cross-track biases in OMI cloud OCP retrievals. Our fast simulator may also be used to simulate cloud OCP from output generated by general circulation models (GCM) with appropriate account of cloud overlap. We have implemented such a scheme and plan to compare OMI data with GCM output in the near future.

Correction of Excessive Precipitation over Steep and High Mountains in a GCM: A Simple Method of Parameterizing the Thermal Effects of Subgrid Topographic Variation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Winston C.

2015-01-01

The excessive precipitation over steep and high mountains (EPSM) in GCMs and meso-scale models is due to a lack of parameterization of the thermal effects of the subgrid-scale topographic variation. These thermal effects drive subgrid-scale heated slope induced vertical circulations (SHVC). SHVC provide a ventilation effect of removing heat from the boundary layer of resolvable-scale mountain slopes and depositing it higher up. The lack of SHVC parameterization is the cause of EPSM. The author has previously proposed a method of parameterizing SHVC, here termed SHVC.1. Although this has been successful in avoiding EPSM, the drawback of SHVC.1 is that it suppresses convective type precipitation in the regions where it is applied. In this article we propose a new method of parameterizing SHVC, here termed SHVC.2. In SHVC.2 the potential temperature and mixing ratio of the boundary layer are changed when used as input to the cumulus parameterization scheme over mountainous regions. This allows the cumulus parameterization to assume the additional function of SHVC parameterization. SHVC.2 has been tested in NASA Goddard's GEOS-5 GCM. It achieves the primary goal of avoiding EPSM while also avoiding the suppression of convective-type precipitation in regions where it is applied.

The effects of future nationwide forest transition to discharge in the 21st century with regard to general circulation model climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Mouri, Goro; Nakano, Katsuhiro; Tsuyama, Ikutaro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki

2016-08-01

Forest disturbance (or land-cover change) and climatic variability are commonly recognised as two major drivers interactively influencing hydrology in forested watersheds. Future climate changes and corresponding changes in forest type and distribution are expected to generate changes in rainfall runoff that pose a threat to river catchments. It is therefore important to understand how future climate changes will effect average rainfall distribution and temperature and what effect this will have upon forest types across Japan. Recent deforestation of the present-day coniferous forest and expected increases in evergreen forest are shown to influence runoff processes and, therefore, to influence future runoff conditions. We strongly recommend that variations in forest type be considered in future plans to ameliorate projected climate changes. This will help to improve water retention and storage capacities, enhance the flood protection function of forests, and improve human health. We qualitatively assessed future changes in runoff including the effects of variation in forest type across Japan. Four general circulation models (GCMs) were selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble to provide the driving fields: the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC), the Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-GCM), the Hadley Centre Global Environment Model (HadGEM), and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) climate model. The simulations consisted of an ensemble including multiple physics configurations and different reference concentration pathways (RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5), the results of which have produced monthly data sets for the whole of Japan. The impacts of future climate changes on forest type in Japan are based on the balance amongst changes in rainfall distribution, temperature and hydrological factors. Methods for assessing the impact of such changes include the Catchment Simulator modelling frameworks based on the Minimal Advanced Treatments of Surface Interaction and Runoff (MATSIRO) model, which was expanded to estimate discharge by incorporating the effects of forest-type transition across the whole of Japan. The results indicated that, by the 2090s, annual runoff will increase above present-day values. Increases in annual variation in runoff by the 2090s was predicted to be around 14.1% when using the MRI-GCM data and 44.4% when using the HadGEM data. Analysis by long-term projection showed the largest increases in runoff in the 2090s were related to the type of forest, such as evergreen. Increased runoff can have negative effects on both society and the environment, including increased flooding events, worsened water quality, habitat destruction and changes to the forest moisture-retaining function. Prediction of the impacts of future climate change on water generation is crucial for effective environmental planning and management. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, Surabi; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Koch, Dorothy; Tselioudis, George; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W m(exp -2) in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kremer, R.G.

Three papers are presented that focus on remote sensing and ecosystem simulation modeling of the Intermountain Northwest sagebrush-steppe ecosystem. The first utilizes Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer data to derive seasonal greenness indices of three pre-dominant vegetation communities in south-central WashingtoN. Temporal signatures were statistically separated, and used to create a classification for the three communities by integrating Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices over the growing season. The classification accuracy was 75% when compared to 53 ground-truthed sites, but was less accurate (62%) in a more topographically variable region. The second paper develops a logic for treating the intermountain sagebrush-steepe asmore » a mosaic of distinct, hydrologically partitioned vegetation communities, and identifies critical ecophysiological considerations for process modeling of arid ecosystems. Soil water and nutrient dynamics of an ecosystem process model were modified to simulate productivity and seasonal water use patterns in Artemisia, Agropyron, and Bromus communities for the same study site. 60 year simulations maintained steady state vegetation productivity while predicting soil moisture content for 65 dates in 1992 with R[sup 2] values ranging from 0.93 to 0.98. In the third paper, the model was used to derive projections of the response of the ecosystem to natural and general circulation model (GCM)-predicted climate variability. Simulations predicted the adaptability of a less productive, invasive grass community (Bromus) to climate change, while a native sagebrush (Artemisia) community does not survive the increased temperatures of the GCM climates. High humidity deficits and greater maintenance respiration costs associated with increased temperatures limit the ability of the sagebrush community to support a relatively high biomass, and substantial increases in soil water storage and subsurface outflow occur was the vegetation senesces.« less

GCM Simulations of the Aerosol Indirect Effect: Sensitivity to Cloud Parameterization and Aerosol Burden

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Menon, Surabi; DelGenio, Anthony D.; Koch, Dorothy; Tselioudis, George; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

We describe the coupling of the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) to an online sulfur chemistry model and source models for organic matter and sea-salt that is used to estimate the aerosol indirect effect. The cloud droplet number concentration is diagnosed empirically from field experiment datasets over land and ocean that observe droplet number and all three aerosol types simultaneously; corrections are made for implied variations in cloud turbulence levels. The resulting cloud droplet number is used to calculate variations in droplet effective radius, which in turn allows us to predict aerosol effects on cloud optical thickness and microphysical process rates. We calculate the aerosol indirect effect by differencing the top-of-the-atmosphere net cloud radiative forcing for simulations with present-day vs. pre-industrial emissions. Both the first (radiative) and second (microphysical) indirect effects are explored. We test the sensitivity of our results to cloud parameterization assumptions that control the vertical distribution of cloud occurrence, the autoconversion rate, and the aerosol scavenging rate, each of which feeds back significantly on the model aerosol burden. The global mean aerosol indirect effect for all three aerosol types ranges from -1.55 to -4.36 W/sq m in our simulations. The results are quite sensitive to the pre-industrial background aerosol burden, with low pre-industrial burdens giving strong indirect effects, and to a lesser extent to the anthropogenic aerosol burden, with large burdens giving somewhat larger indirect effects. Because of this dependence on the background aerosol, model diagnostics such as albedo-particle size correlations and column cloud susceptibility, for which satellite validation products are available, are not good predictors of the resulting indirect effect.

Statistical Downscaling of General Circulation Model Outputs to Precipitation Accounting for Non-Stationarities in Predictor-Predictand Relationships

PubMed Central

Sachindra, D. A.; Perera, B. J. C.

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel approach to incorporate the non-stationarities characterised in the GCM outputs, into the Predictor-Predictand Relationships (PPRs) in statistical downscaling models. In this approach, a series of 42 PPRs based on multi-linear regression (MLR) technique were determined for each calendar month using a 20-year moving window moved at a 1-year time step on the predictor data obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data archive and observations of precipitation at 3 stations located in Victoria, Australia, for the period 1950–2010. Then the relationships between the constants and coefficients in the PPRs and the statistics of reanalysis data of predictors were determined for the period 1950–2010, for each calendar month. Thereafter, using these relationships with the statistics of the past data of HadCM3 GCM pertaining to the predictors, new PPRs were derived for the periods 1950–69, 1970–89 and 1990–99 for each station. This process yielded a non-stationary downscaling model consisting of a PPR per calendar month for each of the above three periods for each station. The non-stationarities in the climate are characterised by the long-term changes in the statistics of the climate variables and above process enabled relating the non-stationarities in the climate to the PPRs. These new PPRs were then used with the past data of HadCM3, to reproduce the observed precipitation. It was found that the non-stationary MLR based downscaling model was able to produce more accurate simulations of observed precipitation more often than conventional stationary downscaling models developed with MLR and Genetic Programming (GP). PMID:27997609

Statistical Downscaling of General Circulation Model Outputs to Precipitation Accounting for Non-Stationarities in Predictor-Predictand Relationships.

PubMed

Sachindra, D A; Perera, B J C

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel approach to incorporate the non-stationarities characterised in the GCM outputs, into the Predictor-Predictand Relationships (PPRs) in statistical downscaling models. In this approach, a series of 42 PPRs based on multi-linear regression (MLR) technique were determined for each calendar month using a 20-year moving window moved at a 1-year time step on the predictor data obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data archive and observations of precipitation at 3 stations located in Victoria, Australia, for the period 1950-2010. Then the relationships between the constants and coefficients in the PPRs and the statistics of reanalysis data of predictors were determined for the period 1950-2010, for each calendar month. Thereafter, using these relationships with the statistics of the past data of HadCM3 GCM pertaining to the predictors, new PPRs were derived for the periods 1950-69, 1970-89 and 1990-99 for each station. This process yielded a non-stationary downscaling model consisting of a PPR per calendar month for each of the above three periods for each station. The non-stationarities in the climate are characterised by the long-term changes in the statistics of the climate variables and above process enabled relating the non-stationarities in the climate to the PPRs. These new PPRs were then used with the past data of HadCM3, to reproduce the observed precipitation. It was found that the non-stationary MLR based downscaling model was able to produce more accurate simulations of observed precipitation more often than conventional stationary downscaling models developed with MLR and Genetic Programming (GP).

Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Mcdermid, Sonali P.

2017-01-01

We present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.

Combined ice core and climate-model evidence for the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet during Marine Isotope Stage 5e.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steig, Eric J.; Huybers, Kathleen; Singh, Hansi A.; Steiger, Nathan J.; Frierson, Dargan M. W.; Popp, Trevor; White, James W. C.

2015-04-01

It has been speculated that collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet explains the very high eustatic sea level rise during the last interglacial period, marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, but the evidence remains equivocal. Changes in atmospheric circulation resulting from a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) would have significant regional impacts that should be detectable in ice core records. We conducted simulations using general circulation models (GCMs) at varying levels of complexity: a gray-radiation aquaplanet moist GCM (GRaM), the slab ocean version of GFDL-AM2 (also as an aquaplanet), and the fully-coupled version of NCAR's CESM with realistic topography. In all the experiments, decreased elevation from the removal of the WAIS leads to greater cyclonic circulation over the West Antarctic region. This creates increased advection of relatively warm marine air from the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Seas towards the South Pole, and increased cold-air advection from the East Antarctic plateau towards the Ross Sea and coastal Marie Byrd Land. The result is anomalous warming in some areas of the East Antarctic interior, and significant cooling in Marie Byrd Land. Comparison of ice core records shows good agreement with the model predictions. In particular, isotope-paleotemperature records from ice cores in East Antarctica warmed more between the previous glacial period (MIS 6) and MIS 5e than coastal Marie Byrd Land. These results add substantial support to other evidence for WAIS collapse during the last interglacial period.

Impact of 3-D orographic gravity wave parameterisation on stratosphere dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eichinger, Roland; Garny, Hella; Cai, Duy; Jöckel, Patrick

2017-04-01

Stratosphere dynamics are strongly influenced by gravity waves (GWs) propagating upwards from the troposphere. Some of these GWs are generated through flow over small-scale orography and can not be resolved by common general circulation models (GCMs). Due to computational model designs, their parameterisation usually follows a one dimensional columnar approach that, among other simplifications, neglects the horizontal propagation of GWs on their way up into the Middle Atmosphere. This causes contradictions between models and observations in location and strength of GW drag force through their dissipation and as a consequence, also in stratospheric mean flow. In the EMAC (ECHAM MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry) model, we have found this deficiency to cause a too weak Antarctic polar vortex, which directly impacts stratospheric temperatures and thereby the chemical reactions that determine ozone depletion. For this reason, we adapt a three dimensional parameterisation for orographic GWs, that had been implemented and tested in the MIROC GCM, to the MESSy coding standard. This computationally light scheme can then be used in a modular and flexible way in a cascade of model setups from an idealised version for conceptional process analyses to full climate chemistry simulations for quantitative investigations. This model enhancement can help to reconcile models and observations in wave drag forcing itself, but in consequence, also in Brewer-Dobson Circulation trends across the recent decades. Furthermore, uncertainties in weather and climate predictions as well as in future ozone projections can be reduced.