Trends in hydrometeorological conditions and stream water organic carbon in boreal forested catchments.

PubMed

Sarkkola, Sakari; Koivusalo, Harri; Laurén, Ari; Kortelainen, Pirkko; Mattsson, Tuija; Palviainen, Marjo; Piirainen, Sirpa; Starr, Mike; Finér, Leena

2009-12-15

Temporal trends in stream water total organic carbon (TOC) concentration and export were studied in 8 forested headwater catchments situated in eastern Finland. The Seasonal Kendall test was conducted to identify the trends and a mixed model regression analysis was used to describe how catchment characteristics and hydrometeorological variables (e.g. precipitation, air and stream water temperatures, and atmospheric deposition) related to the variation in the concentration and export of stream water TOC. The 8 catchments varied in size from 29 to 494 ha and in the proportion of peatland they contained, from 8 to 70%. Runoff and TOC concentration were monitored for 15-29 years (1979-2006). Trends and variation in TOC levels were analysed from annual and seasonal time series. Mean annual TOC concentration increased significantly in seven of the eight catchments. The trends were the strongest in spring and most apparent during the last decade of the study period. The slopes of the trends were generally smaller than the variation in TOC concentration between years and seasons and between catchments. The annual TOC export showed no clear trends and values were largely determined by the temporal variability in runoff. Annual runoff showed a decreasing trend in two of the eight catchments. Mean annual air and stream water temperatures showed increasing trends, most clearly seen in the summer and autumn series. According to our modeling results, stream water temperature, precipitation and peatland percentage were the most important variables explaining annual and most seasonal TOC concentrations. The atmospheric deposition of SO4, NH4, and NO3 decreased significantly over the study period, but no significant link with TOC concentration was found. Precipitation was the main hydrometeorological driver of the TOC export. We concluded that stream water TOC concentrations and exports are mainly driven by catchment characteristics and hydrometeorological factors rather than trends in atmospheric acid deposition.

Recent Acceleration of the Terrestrial Hydrologic Cycle in the U.S. Midwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeh, Pat J.-F.; Wu, Chuanhao

2018-03-01

Most hydroclimatic trend studies considered only a subset of water budget variables; hence, the trend consistency and a holistic assessment of hydrologic changes across the entire water cycle cannot be evaluated. Here we use a unique 31 year (1983-2013) observed data set in Illinois (a representative region of the U.S. Midwest), including temperature (T), precipitation (P), evaporation (E), streamflow (R), soil moisture, and groundwater level (GWL), to estimate the trends and their sensitivity to different data periods and lengths. Both the Mann-Kendall trend test and the least squares linear method identify trends in close agreement. Despite no clear trends during 1983-2013, increasing trends are found in P (8.73-9.05 mm/year), E (6.87-7.47 mm/year), and R (1.57-3.54 mm/year) during 1992-2013, concurrently with a pronounced warming trend of 0.029-0.037 °C/year. However, terrestrial water storageis decreased by -2.0 mm/year (mainly due to declining GWL), suggesting that the increased R is caused by increased surface runoff rather than baseflow. Monthly analyses identify warming trends for all months except winter. In summer, P (E) exhibits an increasing (decreasing) trend, leading to increasing R, soil moisture, GWL, and terrestrial water storage. Most trends estimated for different subperiods are found to be sensitive to data lengths and periods. Overall, this study provides an internally consistent observed evidence on the intensification of the hydrologic cycle in response to recent climate warming in U.S. Midwest, in agreement with and well supported by several recent studies consistently reporting the increased P, R and E over the Midwest and Mississippi River basin.

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Eco-Environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region on the Tibetan Plateau, China.

PubMed

Jiang, Chong; Zhang, Linbo

2015-09-25

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the eco-environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), Tibetan Plateau, China. Temperature and precipitation experienced sharp increases in this region during the past 57 years. A dramatic increase in winter temperatures contributed to a rise in average annual temperatures. Moreover, annual runoff in the Lancang (LRB) and Yangtze (YARB) river basins showed an increasing trend, compared to a slight decrease in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Runoff is predominantly influenced by rainfall, which is controlled by several monsoon systems. The water temperature in the YRB and YARB increased significantly from 1958 to 2007 (p < 0.001), driven by air temperature changes. Additionally, owing to warming and wetting trends in the TRHR, the net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed significant increasing trends during the past half-century. Furthermore, although an increase in water erosion due to rainfall erosivity was observed, wind speeds declined significantly, causing a decline in wind erosion, as well as the frequency and duration of sandstorms. A clear regional warming trend caused an obvious increasing trend in glacier runoff, with a maximum value observed in the 2000s.

Climate Change and Its Impact on the Eco-Environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region on the Tibetan Plateau, China

PubMed Central

Jiang, Chong; Zhang, Linbo

2015-01-01

This study analyzes the impact of climate change on the eco-environment of the Three-Rivers Headwater Region (TRHR), Tibetan Plateau, China. Temperature and precipitation experienced sharp increases in this region during the past 57 years. A dramatic increase in winter temperatures contributed to a rise in average annual temperatures. Moreover, annual runoff in the Lancang (LRB) and Yangtze (YARB) river basins showed an increasing trend, compared to a slight decrease in the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Runoff is predominantly influenced by rainfall, which is controlled by several monsoon systems. The water temperature in the YRB and YARB increased significantly from 1958 to 2007 (p < 0.001), driven by air temperature changes. Additionally, owing to warming and wetting trends in the TRHR, the net primary productivity (NPP) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) showed significant increasing trends during the past half-century. Furthermore, although an increase in water erosion due to rainfall erosivity was observed, wind speeds declined significantly, causing a decline in wind erosion, as well as the frequency and duration of sandstorms. A clear regional warming trend caused an obvious increasing trend in glacier runoff, with a maximum value observed in the 2000s. PMID:26404333

Aerosol radiative effects and their trends under clear-sky situations over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartok, Blanka

2017-04-01

In the literature great uncertainties ca be found regarding radiative effects of aerosols on the energy budget of the atmosphere (IPCC, 2013). In the study the aerosols radiative effects on clear-sky solar radiation are quantified over Europe using empirical and physical modelling approaches. The values of aerosol radiation effect are determined by the MAGIC radiation code. In the first run clear-sky radiation is calculated integrating KINEE/MPI/Aerocom aerosol climatology and ERA-INTERIM water vapour multiannual monthly means. In the next run the clear-sky radiation are also calculated ignoring aerosol data (adjusted to 0) from the algorithm. Both runs were carried out for each months of the year, taking into account the varying astrological factors. The difference between the aerosol-included and aerosol-free clear-sky radiation is equal to the absolute aerosol radiative effect in W/m2. The annual mean of the surface aerosol radiative effects in clear-sky situations over Europe is -7.1 ± 2.9 W/m2, high values are representing the central part of the continent and the Mediterranean Basin. Furthermore the trends of the aerosol radiative effects are also determined for the period of 2001-2012. First a linear fitting is elaborated between the aerosol optical depth (AOT) built in the MAGIC code and its aerosol radiative effect calculated by the code. Next, based on these linear functions a radiative effect values are assigned to each monthly AOT500 value available from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra Level-3 experiment. In this way a new dataset of aerosol radiative effect for the period of 2001-2012 has been created. Beside of this approach the changes in aerosol radiative effects are also calculated based on ground-based clear-sky radiation trends. This approach is used as a validation of the method applied in earlier stage, mainly for the linear fitting. The starting point of this approach is to elaborate the trends of clear-sky radiation controlled by the effects of aerosols and water vapour. If we subtract the water vapour effects also calculated by MAGIC radiation code from this trend, the magnitude of the trends in aerosol radiative effects can be estimated. In this case it is assumed that the two effects do not amplify and do not cancel each other, and their arithmetic sum gives the change in clear-sky radiation trend. The two approaches give good fit, based on the direct (modelled) approach the annual trend of the aerosol radiative effects on clear-sky solar surface radiation is -4.41 W/m2 per decade for the period of 2001-2013, while in the case of the indirect approach (based on clear-sky trends) this trend is found to be -4.46 W/m2 per decade.

Recommendations for shoulder restraint installation in general aviation aircraft.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1966-09-01

The use of inadequate or incomplete body restraint systems is a major factor in the current trend of increasing serious and fatal type injuries reported from general aviation accidents. An analysis of these accident injuries and conditions clearly in...

Spouse selection in Canada, 1921-78: an examination by age, sex and religion.

PubMed

Basavarajappa, K G; Norris, M J; Halli, S S

1988-04-01

This paper presents time series data on spouse selection in Canada for the period 1921-1978. Homogamous and endogamous trends are examined by age, sex, and religion. In the case of religious endogamy, most groups have shown decreasing proportions of marriages. There are also considerable differences in rates of endogamy among religious groups, and these differences have largely persisted over time. Until 1971, the proportions of brides marrying older and younger grooms decreased, while the proportion marrying the same age increased, after which these trends reversed. Younger males increasingly tended to select brides of their own age group until the 1960s, while older males have been increasingly heterogamous since World War II. While these changes in spouse selection have been examined with respect to changes in the unmarried population, the relation between the 2 trends is not clear, and it is difficult to account fully for the observed trends in spouse selection with respect to age.

Spatiotemporal trends in fish mercury from a mine-dominated ecosystem: Clear Lake, California.

PubMed

Suchanek, Thomas H; Eagles-Smith, Collin A; Slotton, Darell G; Harner, E James; Colwell, Arthur E; Anderson, Norman L; Mullen, Lauri H; Flanders, John R; Adam, David P; McElroy, Kenneth J

2008-12-01

Clear Lake, California, USA, receives acid mine drainage and mercury (Hg) from the Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine, a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) Superfund Site that was active intermittently from 1873 to 1957 and partially remediated in 1992. Mercury concentrations were analyzed primarily in four species of Clear Lake fishes: inland silversides (Menidia beryllina, planktivore), common carp (Cyprinus carpio, benthic scavenger/omnivore), channel catfish (Ictalurus punctatus, benthic omnivorous predator), and largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides, piscivorous top predator). These data represent one of the largest fish Hg data sets for a single site, especially in California. Spatially, total Hg (TotHg) in silversides and bass declined with distance from the mine, indicating that the mine site represents a point source for Hg loading to Clear Lake. Temporally, fish Hg has not declined significantly over 12 years since mine site remediation. Mercury concentrations were variable throughout the study period, with no monotonic trends of increase or decrease, except those correlated with boom and bust cycles of an introduced fish, threadfin shad (Dorosoma petenense). However, stochastic events such as storms also influence juvenile largemouth bass Hg as evidenced during an acid mine drainage overflow event in 1995. Compared to other sites regionally and nationally, most fish in Clear Lake exhibit Hg concentrations similar to other Hg-contaminated sites, up to approximately 2.0 mg/kg wet mass (WM) TotHg in largemouth bass. However, even these elevated concentrations are less than would be anticipated from such high inorganic Hg loading to the lake. Mercury in some Clear Lake largemouth bass exceeded all human health fish consumption guidelines established over the past 25 years by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (1.0 mg/kg WM), the National Academy of Sciences (0.5 mg/kg WM), and the U.S. EPA (0.3 mg/kg WM). Mercury in higher trophic level fishes exceeds ecotoxicological risk assessment estimates for concentrations that would be safe for wildlife, specifically the nonlisted Common Merganser and the recently delisted Bald Eagle. Fish populations of 11 out of 18 species surveyed exhibited a significant decrease in abundance with increasing proximity to the mine; this decrease is correlated with increasing water and sediment Hg. These trends may be related to Hg or other lake-wide gradients such as distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation.

[Temporal and spatial variations of extreme climatic events in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China during 1960-2014].

PubMed

Ma, Qi Yun; Zhang, Ji Quan; Lai, Quan; Zhang, Feng; Dong, Zhen Hua; A, Lu Si

2017-06-18

Fourteen extreme climatic indices related with main regional meteorological disasters and vegetation growth were calculated based on daily data from 13 meteorological stations during 1960-2014 in Songnen Grassland, Northeast China. Then, the variation trend and the spatial and temporal patterns of climatic extreme events were analyzed by using regression analysis, break trend analy-sis, Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator and moving t-test method. The results indicated that summer days (SU25), warm days (TX90P), warm nights (TN90P) and warm spell duration (WSDI) representing extremely high temperatures showed significant increasing trends (P<0.05). Meanwhile, frost days (FD0), cold days (TX10P), cold nights (TN10P) and cold spell duration indicator (CSDI) representing extremely low temperatures showed obviously decreasing trends. The magnitudes of changes in cold indices (FD0, TX10P, TN10P and CSDI) were clearly greater than those of warm indices (SU25, TX90P, TN90P and WSDI), and that changes in night indices were larger than those of day indices. Regional climate warming trend was obvious from 1970 to 2009, and the most occurrences of the abrupt changes in these indices were identified in this period. The extreme precipitation indices did not show obvious trend, in general, SDII and CDD experienced a slightly decreasing trend while RX5D, R95P, PRCPTOT and CWD witnessed a mildly increasing trend. It may be concluded that regional climate changed towards warming and slightly wetting in Songnen Grassland. The most sensitive region for extreme temperature was distributed in the south and north region. Additionally, the extreme temperature indices showed clearly spatial difference between the south and the north. As for the spatial variations of extreme precipitation indices, the climate could be characterized by becoming wetter in northern region, and getting drier in southern region, especially in southwestern region with a high drought risk.

Emerging Trends in the Sea State of the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-07-06

Beaufort and Chukchi seas is controlled by the wind forcing and the amount of ice-free water available to generate surface waves. Clear trends in...the annual duration of the open water season and in the extent of the seasonal sea ice minimum suggest that the sea state should be increasing...In particular, larger waves are more common in years with less summer sea ice and/or a longer open water season, and peak wave periods are generally

Short-term Aerosol Trends: Reality or Myth?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leptoukh, Gregory; Zubko, Viktor

2009-01-01

The main questions addressed in this slide presentation involve short-term trends of MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT) over 6 years: (1) Why are the trends different in different regions? (2) How are these trends so high? (3) Why are they "coherent" in many areas? (4) Are these changes in aerosol concentrations real, i.e., are they monotonic changes in emissions? Several views of the Spatial Distribution of AOT from Terra are shown. In conclusion there are several trends: (1) There is a broad spatial inhomogenueity in AOT trends over 6 years of MODIS Terra and Aqua (2) Some of the areas demonstrate clear positive trends related to increase of emission (e.g., Eastern China) (3) Strong trends in some other areas are superficial and might be attributed, in part, to: (3a) Least squares linear trend sensitivity to outliers (need to use more robust linear fitting method) (3b) Spatial and temporal shifts or trends in meteorological conditions, especially in wind patterns responsible for aerosol transport (6) Aerosol trends should be studied together with changes in meteorology patterns as they might closely linked together

Long term trend and interannual variability of land carbon uptake — the attribution and processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Zheng

2017-04-01

Ecosystem carbon (C) uptake in terrestrial ecosystems has increased over the past five decades, but with large interannual variability (IAV). However, we are not clear on the attribution and the processes that control the long-term trend and IAV of land C uptake. Using atmospheric inversion net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data, we quantified the trend and IAV of NEE across the globe, the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and decomposed NEE into carbon uptake amplitude and duration during each year from 1979-2013. We found the NH rather than the SH determined the IAV, while both hemispheres contributed equivalently to the global NEE trend. Different ecosystems in the NH and SH had differential relative contributions to their trend and IAV. The long-term trends of increased C uptake across the globe and the SH were attributed to both extended duration and increasing amplitude of C uptake. The shortened duration of uptake in the NH partly offsets the effects of increased NEE amplitude, making the net C uptake trend the same as that of the SH. The change in NEE IAV was also linked to changes in the amplitude and duration of uptake, but they worked in different ways in the NH, SH and globe. The fundamental attributions of amplitude and duration of C uptake revealed in this study are helpful to better understand the mechanisms underlying the trend and IAV of land C uptake. Our findings also suggest the critical roles of grassland and croplands in the NH in contributing to the trend and IAV of land C uptake.

Long term trend and interannual variability of land carbon uptake—the attribution and processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Zheng; Dong, Jinwei; Zhou, Yuke; Stoy, Paul C.; Niu, Shuli

2017-01-01

Ecosystem carbon (C) uptake in terrestrial ecosystems has increased over the past five decades, but with large interannual variability (IAV). However, we are not clear on the attribution and the processes that control the long-term trend and IAV of land C uptake. Using atmospheric inversion net ecosystem exchange (NEE) data, we quantified the trend and IAV of NEE across the globe, the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and the Southern Hemisphere (SH), and decomposed NEE into carbon uptake amplitude and duration during each year from 1979-2013. We found the NH rather than the SH determined the IAV, while both hemispheres contributed equivalently to the global NEE trend. Different ecosystems in the NH and SH had differential relative contributions to their trend and IAV. The long-term trends of increased C uptake across the globe and the SH were attributed to both extended duration and increasing amplitude of C uptake. The shortened duration of uptake in the NH partly offsets the effects of increased NEE amplitude, making the net C uptake trend the same as that of the SH. The change in NEE IAV was also linked to changes in the amplitude and duration of uptake, but they worked in different ways in the NH, SH and globe. The fundamental attributions of amplitude and duration of C uptake revealed in this study are helpful to better understand the mechanisms underlying the trend and IAV of land C uptake. Our findings also suggest the critical roles of grassland and croplands in the NH in contributing to the trend and IAV of land C uptake.

Land use change in Ohio, 1952 to 1979

Treesearch

Thomas W. Birch; Wharton Eric H.; Wharton Eric H.

1982-01-01

An analytical report on trends of major land uses in Ohio from 1952 to 1979. The relationship between the decline in farm area and increase in forest land is emphasized. The losses of wood fiber attributable to clearing forest land between 1968 and 1979 are also estimated.

An analysis of surface air temperature trends and variability along the Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franquist, Eric S.

Climate change is difficult to study in mountainous regions such as the Andes since steep changes in elevation cannot always be resolved by climate models. However, it is important to examine temperature trends in this region as rises in surface air temperature are leading to the melting of tropical glaciers. Local communities rely on the glacier-fed streamflow to get their water for drinking, irrigation, and livestock. Moreover, communities also rely on the tourism of hikers who come to the region to view the glaciers. As the temperatures increase, these glaciers are no longer in equilibrium with their current climate and are receding rapidly and decreasing the streamflow. This thesis examines surface air temperature from 858 weather stations across Ecuador, Peru, and Chile in order to analyze changes in trends and variability. Three time periods were studied: 1961--1990, 1971--2000, and 1981--2010. The greatest warming occurred during the period of 1971--2000 with 92% of the stations experiencing positive trends with a mean of 0.24°C/decade. There was a clear shift toward cooler temperatures at all latitudes and below elevations of 500 m during the most recent time period studied (1981--2010). Station temperatures were more strongly correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). A principal component analysis confirmed ENSO as the main contributor of variability with the most influence in the lower latitudes. There were clear multidecadal changes in correlation strength for the PDO. The PDO contributed the most to the increases in station temperature trends during the 1961--1990 period, consistent with the PDO shift to the positive phase in the middle of this period. There were many strong positive trends at individual stations during the 1971--2000 period; however, these trends could not fully be attributed to ENSO, PDO, or SAM, indicating anthropogenic effects of greenhouse gas emissions as the most likely cause.

Three decades (1983-2010) of contaminant trends in East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Part 2: brominated flame retardants.

PubMed

Dietz, Rune; Rigét, Frank F; Sonne, Christian; Born, Erik W; Bechshøft, Thea; McKinney, Melissa A; Drimmie, Robert J; Muir, Derek C G; Letcher, Robert J

2013-09-01

Brominated flame retardants were determined in adipose tissues from 294 polar bears (Ursus maritimus) sampled in East Greenland in 23 of the 28years between 1983 and 2010. Significant linear increases were found for sum polybrominated diphenyl ether (ΣPBDE), BDE100, BDE153, and hexabromocyclododecane (HBCD). Average increases of 5.0% per year (range: 2.9-7.6%/year) were found for the subadult polar bears. BDE47 and BDE99 concentrations did not show a significant linear trend over time, but rather a significant non-linear trend peaking between 2000 and 2004. The average ΣPBDE concentrations increased 2.3 fold from 25.0ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 15.3-34.7ng/g lw) in 1983-1986 to 58.5ng/g lw (95% C.I.: 43.6-73.4ng/g lw) in 2006-2010. Similar but fewer statistically significant trends were found for adult females and adult males likely due to smaller sample size and years. Analyses of δ(15)N and δ(13)C stable isotopes in hair revealed no clear linear temporal trends in trophic level or carbon source, respectively, and non-linear trends differed among sex and age groups. These increasing concentrations of organobromine contaminants contribute to complex organohalogen mixture, already causing health effects to the East Greenland polar bears. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Suicide in Greece 1992-2012: A time-series analysis.

PubMed

Papaslanis, Theodoros; Kontaxakis, Vassilis; Christodoulou, Christos; Konstantakopoulos, George; Kontaxaki, Maria-Irini; Papadimitriou, George N

2016-08-01

Since 2008, Greece has entered a long period of economic crisis with adverse effects on various aspects of daily life. In this frame, it is quite important to examine the suicide trends in Greece. Our analysis covered the period 1992-2012. 2012 was the last year for which official suicide data were available. The inclusion of data for pre-crisis period enabled us to assess trends in suicide preceding the economic crisis, starting in 2008. Trends in sex- and age-adjusted standardized suicide rates (SSR) were analyzed using joinpoint regression. Total SSR presented statistically significant annual decrease of 0.89% (95% confidence interval (CI): -1.7, -0.1) during the period 1992-2008. After 2009, the trend in total SSR increased statistically significant annual increase (12.48%; 95% CI: 0.3%, 26.1%). SSR in males presented an initial period of modest annual decrease (-0.84%; 95% CI: -1.6%, -0.1%), during the period 1992-2008. After 2009, an annual increase by 9.25% (95% CI: 2.7%, 16.3%) was revealed. No change in female SSR trend was observed during the studied period. According to the results of this study, there is clear evidence of an increase in the overall SSR and male SSR in Greece during the period of the current financial crisis. © The Author(s) 2016.

Current Trends in Social Dialectology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shuy, Roger W.

The formal study of social dialects has received increasing attention since about the middle of the sixties. In linguistics, the study of social dialectology has resulted in the clear demonstration of the importance of sociolinguistic variation in linguistic theory in contrast to the former preoccupation with linguistic universals. In education,…

Trends in hydrological extremes in the Senegal and the Niger Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilcox, C.; Bodian, A.; Vischel, T.; Panthou, G.; Quantin, G.

2017-12-01

In recent years, West Africa has witnessed several floods of unprecedented magnitude. Although the evolution of hydrological extremes has been evaluated in the region to some extent, results lack regional coverage, significance levels, uncertainty estimations, model selection criteria, or a combination of the above. In this study, Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions with and without various non-stationary temporal covariates are applied to annual maxima of daily discharge (AMAX) data sets in the Sudano-Guinean part of the Senegal River basin and in the Sahelian part of the Niger River basin. The data ranges from the 1950s to the 2010s. The two models of best fit most often selected (with an alpha=0.05 certainty level) were 1) a double-linear model for the central tendency parameter (μ) with stationary dispersion (σ) and 2) a double-linear model for both parameters. Change points are relatively consistent for the Senegal basin, with stations switching from a decreasing streamflow trend to an increasing streamflow trend in the early 1980s. In the Niger basin the trend in μ was generally positive with an increase in slope after the change point, but the change point location was less consistent. The study clearly demonstrates the significant trends in extreme discharge values in West Africa over the past six decades. Moreover, it proposes a clear methodology for comparing GEV models and selecting the best for use. The return levels generated from the chosen models can be applied to river basin management and hydraulic works sizing. The results provide a first evaluation of non-stationarity in extreme hydrological values in West Africa that is accompanied by significance levels, uncertainties, and non-stationary return level estimations .

Forestry alters foraging efficiency and crop contents of aphid-tending red wood ants, Formica aquilonia.

PubMed

Johansson, Therese; Gibb, Heloise

2012-01-01

Forest management alters species behaviours, distributions and interactions. To evaluate forestry effects on ant foraging performance, we compared the quality and quantity of honeydew harvested by ants among clear-cuts, middle-aged and mature spruce-dominated stands in boreal forests in Sweden. Honeydew quality was examined using honeydew collected by squeezing the gasters of laden Formica aquilonia workers. We used fifteen laden individuals at each study site (four replicates of each stand age) and analysed honeydew chemical composition with gas chromatography-mass spectroscopy. To compare the quantity of honeydew collected by individual ants, we collected and weighed five ants moving up and five ants moving down each of ten trees at the twelve sites (totally 1200 ants). The concentration of trehalose in honeydew was lower in clear-cuts compared with middle aged and mature stands, and similar trends were shown for sucrose, raffinose and melezitose, indicating poorer honeydew quality on clear cuts. Concentrations of the amino acid serine were higher on clear-cuts. The same trend occurred for glutamine, suggesting that increased N-uptake by the trees after clear cutting is reflected in the honeydew of aphids. Ants in mature stands had larger heads and carried proportionally more honeydew and may therefore be more efficient foragers. Human alternation of habitats through clear-cutting thus affects food quality and worker condition in F. aquilonia. This is the first study to show that honeydew quality is affected by anthropogenic disturbances, likely contributing to the reduction in size and abundance of F. aquilonia workers and mounds after clear cutting.

Apo-Ferritin as a Therapeutic Treatment for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

infusions with or without H- ferritin shows a significant extension of lifespan and a clear trend of increased survival (Figures 7 and 8). Given that the......August 2012 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Apo- Ferritin as a Therapeutic Treatment for Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis 5b. GRANT NUMBER

Childhood Antecedents of Achievement in Professional Women.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coats, Patricia Boyne; Overman, Steve

While the trend for increasing numbers of women to enter the labor market is clear and career opportunities for women have expanded, women continue to be employed in occupations that are traditionally female and low-paying. This study examined childhood preferred play materials, structured and free play activities, and leisure time activities of…

Selected Bibliography of Educational Materials: Algeria, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia. Volume 7, Number 4, 1973.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Azzouz, Azzedine; And Others

This annotated bibliography contains 108 English language annotations of newspapers and government publications covering educational materials of interest to North Africans. The materials relate a clear trend toward increased awareness of Arab and Islamic heritage and the adaptation of education to a multilingual population. Citations are…

International Students' Perceptions of Their Needs When Going Abroad: Services on Demand

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perez-Encinas, Adriana; Rodriguez-Pomeda, Jesus

2018-01-01

In this article, we analyze international students' perceptions of their needs when going abroad. The trend toward internationalization and the increase in mobility drives the agenda for globalization in many higher education institutions, and in some cases without any clear strategy for identifying the possible needs of international students.…

Do We Need Norms of Fitness for Children with Autistic Spectrum Condition?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Place, Maurice; Dickinson, Kathleen; Reynolds, Joanna

2015-01-01

The increasingly sedentary habits of children, and rising obesity levels, are prompting concern for children's future health. Children with autistic spectrum condition (ASC) show a clear trend in this regard. Within school, an understanding of how an individual's fitness compares to age norms is important in order to design appropriate exercise…

Trace metals in suspended particles, sediments and Asiatic clams (Corbicula fluminea) of the Río de la Plata Estuary, Argentina.

PubMed

Bilos, C; Colombo, J C; Presa, M J

1998-01-01

Suspended particulate matter (SPM), sandy sediments and Asiatic clams were collected at seven sites along 150 km of the Río de la Plata coast to assess the magnitude of trace metal pollution in the area. Metal concentrations in SPM (Cu: 7.4-109; Cr: 75-408; Mn: 525-1341 microg(-1)), sediments (Cr: 16-27; Zn: 26-99; Mn: 221-489 microg(-1)) and bivalves (Cd: 0.5-1.9; Ni: 1.3-6.4; Cr: 1.3-11; Mn: 15-81; Cu: 28-89; Zn: 118-316 microg g(-1)) are comparable to those reported for other moderately polluted world rivers. Cu levels in Asiatic clams are among the highest, similar to those reported for heavily polluted sites. SPM Cu and Cr concentrations displayed a clear geographical trend with values increasing with proximity to major urban centers. Sediments showed a less clear pattern possibly due to their coarse nature (>98% sand) and higher proportion of mineral-associated residual metals. The clams showed a complex pattern due to the variability introduced by size-related factors and the natural dynamics of SPM in the estuary. Cr and Mn showed an apparent reverse industrial trend with higher concentrations in clams collected at distant stations near the turbidity maximum zone, possibly reflecting enhanced particle retention. Cu, Cd and Ni showed no clear geographical pattern, whereas Zn increased in the clams collected in the most industrialized area. A significant relationship with clam size was observed for Cu (positive) and Zn (negative) suggesting different physiological requirements for both metals with age. A principal component analysis confirmed these geographical and size-related trends.

A 12-year observation of water-soluble ions in TSP aerosols collected at a remote marine location in the western North Pacific: an outflow region of Asian dust

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boreddy, S. K. R.; Kawamura, K.

2015-06-01

In order to characterize the long-term trend of remote marine aerosols, a 12-year observation was conducted for water-soluble ions in TSP (total suspended particulate) aerosols collected from 2001 to 2012 in the Asian outflow region at Chichijima Island in the western North Pacific. We found a clear difference in chemical composition between the continentally affected and marine background air masses over the observation site. Asian continental air masses are delivered from late autumn to spring, whereas marine air masses were dominated in summer. Concentrations of non-sea salt (nss-) SO42-, NO3-, NH4+, nss-K+ and nss-Ca2+ are high in winter and spring and low in summer. On the other hand, MSA- (methanesulfonate) exhibits higher concentrations during spring and winter, probably due to springtime dust bloom or due to the direct continental transport of MSA- to the observation site. We could not find any clear decadal trend for Na+, Cl-, Mg2+ and nss-Ca2+ in all seasons, although there exists a clear seasonal trend. However, concentrations of nss-SO42- continuously decreased from 2007 to 2012, probably due to the decreased SO2 emissions in East Asia especially in China. In contrast, nss-K+ and MSA- concentrations continuously increased from 2001 to 2012 during winter and spring seasons, demonstrating that biomass burning and/or terrestrial biological emissions in East Asia are being increasingly transported from the Asian continent to the western North Pacific. This study also demonstrates that Asian dusts can act as an important source of nutrients for phytoplankton and thus sea-to-air emission of dimethyl sulfide over the western North Pacific.

Patterns of breast cancer mortality trends in Europe.

PubMed

Amaro, Joana; Severo, Milton; Vilela, Sofia; Fonseca, Sérgio; Fontes, Filipa; La Vecchia, Carlo; Lunet, Nuno

2013-06-01

To identify patterns of variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe (1980-2010), using a model-based approach. Mortality data were obtained from the World Health Organization database and mixed models were used to describe the time trends in the age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR). Model-based clustering was used to identify clusters of countries with homogeneous variation in ASMR. Three patterns were identified. Patterns 1 and 2 are characterized by stable or slightly increasing trends in ASMR in the first half of the period analysed, and a clear decline is observed thereafter; in pattern 1 the median of the ASMR is higher, and the highest rates were achieved sooner. Pattern 3 is characterised by a rapid increase in mortality until 1999, declining slowly thereafter. This study provides a general model for the description and interpretation of the variation in breast cancer mortality in Europe, based in three main patterns. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Worldwide Trends of Urinary Stone Disease Treatment Over the Last Two Decades: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Geraghty, Robert M; Jones, Patrick; Somani, Bhaskar K

2017-06-01

Numerous studies have reported on regional or national trends of stone disease treatment. However, no article has yet examined the global trends of intervention for stone disease. A systematic review of articles from 1996 to September 2016 for all English language articles reporting on trends of surgical treatment of stone disease was performed. Authors were contacted in the case of data not being clear. If the authors did not reply, data were estimated from graphs or tables. Results were analyzed using SPSS version 21, and trends were analyzed using linear regression. Our systematic review yielded 120 articles, of which 8 were included in the initial review. This reflected outcomes from six countries with available data: United Kingdom, United States, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and Brazil. Overall ureteroscopy (URS) had a 251.8% increase in total number of treatments performed with the share of total treatments increasing by 17%. While the share of total treatments for percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) remained static, the share for extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy and open surgery fell by 14.5% and 12%, respectively. There was significant linear regression between rising trends of total treatments year on year for URS (p < 0.001). In the last two decades, the share of total treatment for urolithiasis across the published literature has increased for URS, stable for PCNL, and decreased for lithotripsy and open surgery.

Observations of Europe wide Trends in background and peak O3, CO and NO2 levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Z. L.; Monks, P. S.; Brunsdon, C.; Henne, S.; Buchmann, B.; Konovalov, I.; Beekman, M.

2009-04-01

The GEOMON (Global Earth Observation and MONitoring) project has produced a harmonised data set of trace gases from various ground-based measurement stations. These stations belong to a variety of regional, national and European air quality networks (e.g. EMEP, GAW). Investigations into instrumental calibration and data quality have been carried out in order to make comparison between the sites as accurate as possible for a long time-scale trend analysis. Ozone seasonal cycles at the various sites have been compared, showing characteristic cycles according to latitude, elevation, vicinity to coastal areas and pollution sources and population nearby. A de-trending of this seasonal cycle revealed long-term variations in ozone and a considerable difference between background and peak ozone trends between sites. National, European and international legislation has aimed at reducing CO and NO2 and correspondingly, reduce O3 levels over the last 20 years but the trends are not as clear cut and reveal that there is not a homogeneous reduction in these species across Europe. Splitting the data into seasonal periods and also into lower and upper concentration percentiles shows us more clearly how the species vary across Europe. There is a tendency for peak ozone levels to decrease, whilst the background levels have mostly increased. Averages, lower and upper percentiles of these species at the GEOMON stations are shown on European maps and the distribution of annual ozone trends is evaluated. Comparisons with models that estimate the lower and upper percentiles of ozone during summer overestimate ozone levels but not uniformly across Europe.

Chances of short-term cooling trends over Canada for the next decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grenier, Patrick; de Elia, Ramon; Chaumont, Diane

2014-05-01

As climate services continue to develop in Quebec, Canada, an increasing number of requests are made for providing information relevant for the near term. As a response, one approach has been to consider short-term cooling trends as a basis for climate products. This project comprises different aspects: technical steps, knowledge transfer, and societal use. Each step does represent a different challenge. The technical part, i.e. producing probabilistic distributions of short-term temperature trends, involves relatively complex scenario construction methods including bias-related post-processing, and access to wide simulation and observation databases. Calculations are performed on 60 CMIP5-based scenarios on a grid covering Canada during the period 2006-2035, and for 5, 10, 15, 20 and 25-year trend durations. Knowledge transfer implies overcoming misinterpretation, given that probabilistic projections based on simulation ensembles are not perfectly related to real-Earth possible outcomes. Finally, societal use of this information remains the biggest challenge. On the one hand, users clearly state their interest in near-term relevant information, and intuitively it seems clear that short-term cooling trends embedded within the long-term warming path should be considered in adaptation plans, for avoiding over-adaptation. On the other hand, the exact way of incorporating such information within a decision-making process has proven not to be obvious. Irrespective of that, the study and communication of short-term cooling chances is necessary for preventing decision-makers to infer from the eventual occurrence of such a trend that global warming isn't happening. The presentation will discuss the three aspects aforementioned.

How active are American adolescents and have they become less active?

PubMed

Li, S; Treuth, M S; Wang, Y

2010-12-01

The aim of this study was to systematically examine patterns and time trends in US adolescents' physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviours. We examined findings from the nationally representative Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Surveys during 1991-2007, and fit regression models estimating average annual changes and tested time trends, and age, gender and ethnic differences. US adolescents had less PA but more sedentary behaviours than recommended, but showed no clear evidence of becoming less active. In 2007, 24.9% reported on average spending ≥3 h of screen time per day for non-school work; only 34.7% met the current PA recommendations, and it (25.6%) was even lower in girls. The prevalence of having sufficient vigorous PA changed little between 1993 and 2005 (from 65.8% to 64.1%). Encouraging changes regarding TV viewing time and physical education (PE) were detected. PE daily attendance rate and exercising >20 min during an average PE class increased significantly, while watching TV ≥3 h d⁻¹ decreased significantly in recent years. Considerable sex, age and ethnic differences existed in the patterns and trends. These national data show no clear evidence of declining PA among US adolescents in recent years. Reduced PA is not likely the major explanation of the recent increase in obesity among US adolescents. © 2009 The Authors. obesity reviews © 2009 International Association for the Study of Obesity.

Predicting trends of invasive plants richness using local socio-economic data: An application in North Portugal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Santos, Mario, E-mail: mgsantoss@gmail.com; Freitas, Raul, E-mail: raulfreitas@portugalmail.com; Crespi, Antonio L., E-mail: aluis.crespi@gmail.com

2011-10-15

This study assesses the potential of an integrated methodology for predicting local trends in invasive exotic plant species (invasive richness) using indirect, regional information on human disturbance. The distribution of invasive plants was assessed in North Portugal using herbarium collections and local environmental, geophysical and socio-economic characteristics. Invasive richness response to anthropogenic disturbance was predicted using a dynamic model based on a sequential modeling process (stochastic dynamic methodology-StDM). Derived scenarios showed that invasive richness trends were clearly associated with ongoing socio-economic change. Simulations including scenarios of growing urbanization showed an increase in invasive richness while simulations in municipalities with decreasingmore » populations showed stable or decreasing levels of invasive richness. The model simulations demonstrate the interest and feasibility of using this methodology in disturbance ecology. - Highlights: {yields} Socio-economic data indicate human induced disturbances. {yields} Socio-economic development increase disturbance in ecosystems. {yields} Disturbance promotes opportunities for invasive plants.{yields} Increased opportunities promote richness of invasive plants.{yields} Increase in richness of invasive plants change natural ecosystems.« less

Sedimentary records of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in remote lakes across the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Yang, Ruiqiang; Xie, Ting; Li, An; Yang, Handong; Turner, Simon; Wu, Guangjian; Jing, Chuanyong

2016-07-01

Sediment cores from five lakes across the Tibetan Plateau were used as natural archives to study the time trends of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). The depositional flux of PAHs generally showed an increasing trend from the deeper layers towards the upper layer sediments. The fluxes of PAHs were low with little variability before the 1950s, and then gradually increased to the late 1980s, with a faster increasing rate after the 1990s. This temporal pattern is clearly different compared with those remote lakes across the European mountains when PAHs started to decrease during the period 1960s-1980s. The difference of the temporal trend was attributed to differences in the economic development stages and energy structure between these regions. PAHs are dominated by the lighter 2&3-ring homologues with the averaged percentage over 87%, while it is notable that the percentage of heavier 4-6 ring PAHs generally increased in recent years, which suggests the contribution of local high-temperature combustion sources becoming more predominant. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Emerging trends in the sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, Jim; Fan, Yalin; Stammerjohn, Sharon; Stopa, Justin; Rogers, W. Erick; Girard-Ardhuin, Fanny; Ardhuin, Fabrice; Shen, Hayley; Perrie, Will; Shen, Hui; Ackley, Steve; Babanin, Alex; Liu, Qingxiang; Guest, Peter; Maksym, Ted; Wadhams, Peter; Fairall, Chris; Persson, Ola; Doble, Martin; Graber, Hans; Lund, Bjoern; Squire, Vernon; Gemmrich, Johannes; Lehner, Susanne; Holt, Benjamin; Meylan, Mike; Brozena, John; Bidlot, Jean-Raymond

2016-09-01

The sea state of the Beaufort and Chukchi seas is controlled by the wind forcing and the amount of ice-free water available to generate surface waves. Clear trends in the annual duration of the open water season and in the extent of the seasonal sea ice minimum suggest that the sea state should be increasing, independent of changes in the wind forcing. Wave model hindcasts from four selected years spanning recent conditions are consistent with this expectation. In particular, larger waves are more common in years with less summer sea ice and/or a longer open water season, and peak wave periods are generally longer. The increase in wave energy may affect both the coastal zones and the remaining summer ice pack, as well as delay the autumn ice-edge advance. However, trends in the amount of wave energy impinging on the ice-edge are inconclusive, and the associated processes, especially in the autumn period of new ice formation, have yet to be well-described by in situ observations. There is an implicit trend and evidence for increasing wave energy along the coast of northern Alaska, and this coastal signal is corroborated by satellite altimeter estimates of wave energy.

C4 grasses prosper as carbon dioxide eliminates desiccation in warmed semi-arid grasslands

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global warming is predicted to induce desiccation in many world regions through increases in evaporative demand. Rising CO2 may counter that trend by improving plant water use efficiency (WUE). However, it is not clear how important this CO2-enhanced WUE might be in off-setting warming-induced desi...

Acceptance of Mobile Learning at SMEs of the Service Sector

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beutner, Marc; Rüscher, Frederike Anna

2017-01-01

Mobile Learning (mLearning) is becoming popular in several parts of education. The increasing availability of mobile technology and devices is an important fact, which fosters this trend. However, even if it attracts more and more attention at huge enterprises it is not clear what small and medium enterprises (SMEs) think about Mobile Learning.…

Seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, T.; Myneni, R.

2017-12-01

Multiple evidences of widespread greening and increasing terrestrial carbon uptake have been documented. In particular, enhanced gross productivity of northern vegetation has been a critical role leading to observed carbon uptake trend. However, seasonal photosynthetic activity and its contribution to observed annual carbon uptake trend and interannual variability are not well understood. Here, we introduce a multiple-source of datasets including ground, atmospheric and satellite observations, and multiple process-based global vegetation models to understand how seasonal variation of land surface vegetation controls a large-scale carbon exchange. Our analysis clearly shows a seasonally asymmetric enhancement of northern vegetation productivity in growing season during last decades. Particularly, increasing gross productivity in late spring and early summer is obvious and dominant driver explaining observed trend and variability. We observe more asymmetric productivity enhancement in warmer region and this spatially varying asymmetricity in northern vegetation are likely explained by canopy development rate, thermal and light availability. These results imply that continued warming may facilitate amplifying asymmetric vegetation activity and cause these trends to become more pervasive, in turn warming induced regime shift in northern land.

Long-Term Vegetation Trends Detected In Northern Canada Using Landsat Image Stacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraser, R.; Olthof, I.; Carrière, M.; Deschamps, A.; Pouliot, D.

2011-12-01

Evidence of recent productivity increases in arctic vegetation comes from a variety of sources. At local scales, long-term plot measurements in North America are beginning to record increases in vascular plant cover and biomass. At landscape scales, expansion and densification of shrubs has been observed using repeat oblique photographs. Finally, continental-scale increases in vegetation "greenness" have been documented based on analysis of coarse resolution (≥ 1 km) NOAA-AVHRR satellite imagery. In this study we investigated intermediate, regional-level changes occurring in tundra vegetation since 1984 using the Landsat TM and ETM+ satellite image archive. Four study areas averaging 13,619 km2 were located over widely distributed national parks in northern Canada (Ivvavik, Sirmilik, Torngat Mountains, and Wapusk). Time-series image stacks of 16-41 growing-season Landsat scenes from overlapping WRS-2 frames were acquired spanning periods of 17-25 years. Each pixel's unique temporal database of clear-sky values was then analyzed for trends in four indices (NDVI, Tasseled Cap Brightness, Greenness and Wetness) using robust linear regression. The trends were further related to changes in the fractional cover of functional vegetation types using regression tree models trained with plot data and high resolution (≤ 10 m) satellite imagery. We found all four study areas to have a larger proportion of significant (p<0.05) positive greenness trends (range 6.1-25.5%) by comparison to negative trends (range 0.3-4.1%). For the three study areas where regression tree models could be derived, consistent trends of increasing shrub or vascular fractional cover and decreasing bare cover were predicted. The Landsat-based observations were associated with warming trends in each park over the analysis periods. Many of the major changes observed could be corroborated using published studies or field observations.

Large prospective investigation of meat intake, related mutagens, and risk of renal cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Daniel, Carrie R; Cross, Amanda J; Graubard, Barry I; Park, Yikyung; Ward, Mary H; Rothman, Nathaniel; Hollenbeck, Albert R; Chow, Wong-Ho; Sinha, Rashmi

2012-01-01

The evidence for meat intake and renal cell carcinoma (RCC) risk is inconsistent. Mutagens related to meat cooking and processing, and variation by RCC subtype may be important to consider. In a large US cohort, we prospectively investigated intake of meat and meat-related compounds in relation to risk of RCC, as well as clear cell and papillary RCC histologic subtypes. Study participants (492,186) completed a detailed dietary assessment linked to a database of heme iron, heterocyclic amines (HCA), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), nitrate, and nitrite concentrations in cooked and processed meats. Over 9 (mean) y of follow-up, we identified 1814 cases of RCC (498 clear cell and 115 papillary adenocarcinomas). HRs and 95% CIs were estimated within quintiles by using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Red meat intake [62.7 g (quintile 5) compared with 9.8 g (quintile 1) per 1000 kcal (median)] was associated with a tendency toward an increased risk of RCC [HR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.40; P-trend = 0.06] and a 2-fold increased risk of papillary RCC [P-trend = 0.002]. Intakes of benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), a marker of PAHs, and 2-amino-1-methyl-6-phenyl-imidazo[4,5-b]pyridine (PhIP), an HCA, were associated with a significant 20-30% elevated risk of RCC and a 2-fold increased risk of papillary RCC. No associations were observed for the clear cell subtype. Red meat intake may increase the risk of RCC through mechanisms related to the cooking compounds BaP and PhIP. Our findings for RCC appeared to be driven by strong associations with the rarer papillary histologic variant. This study is registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00340015.

Farallon de Medinilla seabird and Tinian moorhen analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Leopold, Christina R.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Juola, Franz

2015-01-01

This report assesses the trends in brown booby (Sula leucogaster), masked booby (S. dactylatra), and red-footed booby (S. sula) counts collected on Farallon de Medinilla and Mariana common moorhen (Gallinula chloropus guami) counts on Tinian, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands to help elucidate patterns in bird numbers. During either monthly or quarterly surveys between 1997 and 2014 counts of all four bird species were recorded, generating a relatively noisy time series revealing inter-annual variation in index counts by as much as 1,000%. For the purposes of assessing long-term population trends across years we chose a single, species-specific month to assess trends. Doing so reduces the effect of intra-annual variation allowing the analysis to focus on inter-annual variation important to long-term trends assessment. There are clear fluctuations in the counts of all four species. Although the trends were non-significant, there is some evidence that masked and red-footed booby species have declined while brown booby and moorhen have increased.

Responses of Surface Runoff to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Arid Region of Central Asia: A Case Study in the Tarim River Basin, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Changchun; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Yapeng; Zhao, Ruifeng; Ding, Hui

2013-04-01

Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.

Responses of surface runoff to climate change and human activities in the arid region of central Asia: a case study in the Tarim River basin, China.

PubMed

Xu, Changchun; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Yapeng; Zhao, Ruifeng; Ding, Hui

2013-04-01

Based on hydrological and climatic data and land use/cover change data covering the period from 1957 to 2009, this paper investigates the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the arid Tarim River basin (TRB). The results show that the surface runoff of three headstreams (Aksu River, Yarkant River and Hotan River) of the Tarim River exhibited a significant increasing trend since 1960s and entered an even higher-runoff stage in 1994. In the contrary, the surface runoff of Tarim mainstream displayed a persistent decreasing trend since 1960s. The increasing trend of surface runoff in the headstreams can be attributed to the combined effects of both temperature and precipitation changes during the past five decades. But, the decreasing trend of surface runoff in the mainstream and the observed alterations of the temporal and spatial distribution patterns were mainly due to the adverse impacts of human activities. Specifically, increasingly intensified water consumption for irrigation and the associated massive constructions of water conservancy projects were responsible for the decreasing trend of runoff in the mainstream. And, the decreasing trend has been severely jeopardizing the ecological security in the lower reaches. It is now unequivocally clear that water-use conflicts among different sectors and water-use competitions between upper and lower reaches are approaching to dangerous levels in TRB that is thus crying for implementing an integrated river basin management scheme.

Profiling of subgingival plaque biofilm microbiota in female adult patients with clear aligners: a three-month prospective study

PubMed Central

Liu, Hao; Li, Xiaobei

2018-01-01

Background Clear aligners are well known for facilitating oral hygiene maintenance and decreasing susceptibility to periodontal diseases as compared to conventional fixed appliances. However, few research studies focus on the subgingival microbial community during clear aligner treatment (CAT). Hence, this study investigates changes of the subgingival microbial community and its association with clinical characteristics during the first three months of CAT. Methods Ten female patients with clear aligners were enrolled in this study. Subgingival plaque samples were obtained at three time points: before orthodontic treatment (T0), one month after orthodontic treatment (T1) and three months after orthodontic treatment (T2). DNA was then extracted from plaque samples and analyzed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Periodontal examinations, including plaque index (PI) and gingival bleeding index (GBI) measurements were also recorded. Results The plaque indices (PIs) and gingival bleeding indices (GBIs) were slightly increased at T1 and T2, but no statistically significant difference was found. The alpha diversity indices, including the ACE, Chao1, Shannon indices, all showed a declining trend without significance, and a rising trend in the Simpson diversity index was observed. The weighted UniFrac distance was significantly higher at T1 and T2 compared with T0. Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA) demonstrated that the communities at T0 tended to cluster apart from the communities at T1 and T2. The relative abundance of the phylum Firmicutes and genus Mycoplasma was significantly increased at T0 compared with T2. There was no significant difference in the relative abundance of periodontal pathogens at the genus and species levels or core microorganisms at the genus level. Conclusion A slightly decreasing microbial diversity with a significant change of microbial structure was found during the first three-month clear aligner treatment (CAT). However, subjects receiving clear aligner treatment were free from periodontal diseases with relatively stable levels of periodontal microorganisms and core microorganisms. Thus, our preliminary findings indicated that clear aligners induced nonpathogenic changes of the subgingival microbiome in the first three-month treatment. PMID:29312828

Profiling of subgingival plaque biofilm microbiota in female adult patients with clear aligners: a three-month prospective study.

PubMed

Guo, Runzhi; Zheng, Yunfei; Liu, Hao; Li, Xiaobei; Jia, Lingfei; Li, Weiran

2018-01-01

Clear aligners are well known for facilitating oral hygiene maintenance and decreasing susceptibility to periodontal diseases as compared to conventional fixed appliances. However, few research studies focus on the subgingival microbial community during clear aligner treatment (CAT). Hence, this study investigates changes of the subgingival microbial community and its association with clinical characteristics during the first three months of CAT. Ten female patients with clear aligners were enrolled in this study. Subgingival plaque samples were obtained at three time points: before orthodontic treatment (T0), one month after orthodontic treatment (T1) and three months after orthodontic treatment (T2). DNA was then extracted from plaque samples and analyzed by 16S rRNA gene sequencing. Periodontal examinations, including plaque index (PI) and gingival bleeding index (GBI) measurements were also recorded. The plaque indices (PIs) and gingival bleeding indices (GBIs) were slightly increased at T1 and T2, but no statistically significant difference was found. The alpha diversity indices, including the ACE, Chao1, Shannon indices, all showed a declining trend without significance, and a rising trend in the Simpson diversity index was observed. The weighted UniFrac distance was significantly higher at T1 and T2 compared with T0. Principal Coordinates Analysis (PCoA) demonstrated that the communities at T0 tended to cluster apart from the communities at T1 and T2. The relative abundance of the phylum Firmicutes and genus Mycoplasma was significantly increased at T0 compared with T2. There was no significant difference in the relative abundance of periodontal pathogens at the genus and species levels or core microorganisms at the genus level. A slightly decreasing microbial diversity with a significant change of microbial structure was found during the first three-month clear aligner treatment (CAT). However, subjects receiving clear aligner treatment were free from periodontal diseases with relatively stable levels of periodontal microorganisms and core microorganisms. Thus, our preliminary findings indicated that clear aligners induced nonpathogenic changes of the subgingival microbiome in the first three-month treatment.

Characteristics and trends of emergency patients with drug overdose in Osaka

PubMed Central

Kubota, Yoshie; Hasegawa, Kohei; Taguchi, Hirokazu; Kitamura, Tetsuhisa; Nishiyama, Chika; Iwami, Taku; Nishiuchi, Tatsuya

2015-01-01

Aim Drug overdose is an important issue in emergency medicine. However, studies covering overdose patients transported by ambulance have not been sufficiently carried out. We attempted to clarify problems of suspected drug overdose patients transported by ambulance. Methods This is a prospective population‐based cohort study. Data were collected by emergency medical service crews in Osaka City, Japan, between January 1998 and December 2010. Results Drug overdose cases increased annually from 1,136 in 1998 to 1,822 in 2010 (P < 0.0001 for trend). In these cases, the dominant age range was between 16 and 40 years and the age distribution did not change over time. The age of non‐overdose cases increased (P < 0.0001 for trend), with patients aged ≥66 years becoming most common in recent years, reflecting the aging of society. Males comprised most non‐overdose patients, but the percentage of females increased annually (P < 0.0001 in trend). Females comprised approximately 70% in overdose cases annually throughout the study period. The duration from the emergency call to the arrival at the hospital for overdose patients has increased markedly in recent years. It also takes more time to obtain acceptance from hospitals to care for patients of suspected overdose. Conclusion The characteristics of drug overdose patients are clearly different from those of non‐overdose patients. Recent trends of drug overdose patients indicate the accelerated burden on emergency medical services system. PMID:29123730

Variable Trends in High Peak Flow Generation Across the Swedish Sub-Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Lyon, S. W.

2015-12-01

There is growing concern about increased frequency and severity of floods and droughts globally in recent years. Improving knowledge on the complexity of hydrological systems and their interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers of these extreme events and to predict changes in these drivers under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true in cold regions such as the Swedish Sub-Arctic where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on extremes. This study explores changes in the magnitude and timing of the annual maximum daily flows in 18 Swedish sub-arctic catchments. The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in selected hydrological signatures. Further, a flood frequency analysis was conducted by fitting a Gumbel (Extreme Value type I) distribution whereby selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach. Our results showed that hydrological systems in cold climates have complex, heterogeneous interactions with climate. Shifts from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime were evident with all significant trends pointing towards (1) lower flood magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest permafrost thawing and are in agreement with the increasing trends in annual minimum flows. Trends in the selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the entire period of record, while trends were variable under shorter periods. A thorough uncertainty analysis emphasized that the applied trend test is highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional pattern could be determined suggesting that how catchments are responding to changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

Severe Weather in United States Under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, Donald J.; Kunkel, Kenneth; Wehner, Michael; Zobel, Zachary

2014-05-01

The science has become clear and convincing that the Earth's climate is rapidly changing [e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2014]. Along with the overall changes in climate, there is strong evidence of an increasing trend over recent decades in the frequency, intensity, and duration of some types of extreme weather events, with resulting effects on U.S. society.

Tendencies of extreme values on rainfall and temperature and its relationship with teleconnection patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taboada, J. J.; Cabrejo, A.; Guarin, D.; Ramos, A. M.

2009-04-01

It is now very well established that yearly averaged temperatures are increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. In the area of Galicia (NW Spain) this trend has also been determined. Rainfall does not show a clear tendency in its yearly accumulated values. The aim of this work is to study different extreme indices of rainfall and temperatures analysing variability and possible trends associated to climate change. Station data for the study was provided by the CLIMA database of the regional government of Galicia (NW Spain). The definition of the extreme indices was taken from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) This group has defined a set of standard extreme values to simplify intercomparison of data from different regions of the world. For the temperatures in the period 1960-2006, results show a significant increase of the number of days with maximum temperatures above the 90th percentile. Furthermore, a significant decrease of the days with maximum temperatures below the 10th percentile has been found. The tendencies of minimum temperatures are reverse: fewer nights with minimum temperatures below 10th percentile, and more with minimum temperatures above 90th percentile. Those tendencies can be observed all over the year, but are more pronounced in summer. This trend is expected to continue in the next decades because of anthropogenic climate change. We have also calculated the relationship between the above mentioned extreme values and different teleconnection patterns appearing in the North Atlantic area. Results show that local tendencies are associated with trends of EA (Eastern Atlantic) and SCA (Scandinavian) patterns. NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) has also some relationship with these tendencies, but only related with cold days and nights in winter. Rainfall index do not show any clear tendency on the annual scale. Nevertheless, the count of days when precipitation is greater than 20mm (R20mm) and the total precipitation when rainfall is greater than 95th percentile (R95pTOT) diminishes in winter and spring, but increases in autumn. This trend is related with NAO in winter and spring and with SCA in autumn.

Analysis of land degradation processes on a tiger bush plateau in South West Niger using MODIS and LANDSAT TM/ETM+ data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fiorillo, Edoardo; Maselli, Fabio; Tarchiani, Vieri; Vignaroli, Patrizio

2017-10-01

Remote sensing digital image analysis has been applied to monitor land clearing and degradation processes on a plateau covered by tiger bush near Niamey in South West Niger, where signs of severe landscape degradation due to fuelwood supply have been observed in the last decades. A MODIS NDVI dataset (2000-2015) and five LANDSAT images (1986-2012) were used to identify spatial and temporal dynamics and to emphasize areas of greater degradation. The study indicates that the land clearing found by previous investigations in the second part of the 20th century is still ongoing, with a decreasing trend of MODIS NDVI values recorded in the period 2000-2015. This trend appeared to be linked to an increase in bare soil areas that was demonstrated by analysis of LANDSAT SAVI images. The investigation also indicated that rates of degradation are stronger in more deteriorated areas like those located nearer Niamey; degradation patterns also tend to increase from the inner areas to the edges of the plateau. These results attest to the urgency to develop effective environmental preservation policies and find alternative solutions for domestic energy supply.

Trends in hazardous trace metal concentrations in aerosols collected in Beijing, China from 2001 to 2006.

PubMed

Okuda, Tomoaki; Katsuno, Masayuki; Naoi, Daisuke; Nakao, Shunsuke; Tanaka, Shigeru; He, Kebin; Ma, Yongliang; Lei, Yu; Jia, Yingtao

2008-06-01

Daily observations of hazardous trace metal concentrations in aerosols in Beijing, China were made in the period from 2001 to 2006. We considered coal combustion as a major source of some anthropogenic metals by achieving a correlation analysis and by investigating enrichment factors and relative composition of metals. A possible extra source of some specific metals, such as Cu and Sb, was brake abrasion particles, however, we did not think the transport-related particle was a major source for the hazardous anthropogenic metals even though they could originate from vehicle exhaust and brake/tire abrasion particles. A time-trend model was used to describe temporal variations of chemical constituent concentrations during the five-year period. Several crustal elements, such as Al, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, and Co, did not show clear increases, with annual rates of change of -15.2% to 3.6%. On the other hand, serious increasing trends were noted from several hazardous trace metals. Cu, Zn, As, Cd, and Pb, which are derived mainly from anthropogenic sources, such as coal combustion, showed higher annual rate of change (4.9-19.8%, p<0.001) according to the regression model. In particular, the Cd and Pb concentrations increased remarkably. We hypothesize that the trend towards increasing concentrations of metals in the air reflects a change that has occurred in the process of burning coal, whereby the use of higher temperatures for coal combustion has resulted in increased emissions of these metals. The increasing use of low-rank coal may also explain the observed trends. In addition, nonferrous metal smelters are considered as a potential, albeit minor, reason for the increasing atmospheric concentrations of anthropogenic hazardous metals in Beijing city.

“Once upon a Time in the Mediterranean” Long Term Trends of Mediterranean Fisheries Resources Based on Fishers’ Traditional Ecological Knowledge

PubMed Central

Damalas, Dimitrios; Maravelias, Christos D.; Osio, Giacomo C.; Maynou, Francesc; Sbrana, Mario; Sartor, Paolo

2015-01-01

We investigate long-term changes in the Mediterranean marine resources driving the trawl fisheries by analysing fishers’ perceptions (Traditional Ecological Knowledge, TEK) throughout the Mediterranean Sea during the last 80 years. To this end, we conducted an extended set of interviews with experienced fishers that enabled us to classify species (or taxa) as ‘decreasing’ or ‘increasing’ both in terms of abundance, as well as average size in the catch. The aspect that most clearly emerged in all the investigated areas over time was the notable increase of fishing capacity indicators, such as engine power and fishing depth range. Atlantic mackerel, poor cod, scorpionfishes, striped seabream, and John Dory demonstrated a decreasing trend in the fishers’ perceived abundance, while Mediterranean parrotfish, common pandora, cuttlefish, blue and red shrimp, and mullets gave indications of an increasing temporal trend. Although, as a rule, trawler captains did not report any cataclysmic changes (e.g. extinctions), when they were invited to estimate total catches, a clear decreasing pattern emerged; this being a notable finding taking into account the steep escalation of fishing efficiency during the past century. The overall deteriorating status of stocks in most Mediterranean regions calls for responsible management and design of rebuilding plans. This should include historical information accounting for past exploitation patterns that could help defining a baseline of fish abundance prior to heavy industrial fisheries exploitation. PMID:25781459

Perspectives from the Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute: Amphibians and wilderness

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corn, Paul Stephen

2001-01-01

The decline of amphibian species has emerged as a major global conservation issue in the last decade. Last year, the Department of the Interior (DOI) initiated a major national initiative to detect trends in amphibian populations and research the causes of declines. The program, conducted principally by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), emphasizes lands managed by DOI, but collaboration with the Forest Service is encouraged to increase the scope of inference about population trends. Although amphibians are not usually the first group of animals that comes to mind when one thinks of wilderness, conservation of amphibian populations is clearly a wilderness issue.

Temperature and heat wave trends in northwest Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martínez-Austria, Polioptro F.; Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gómez, Carlos

2016-02-01

Increase in temperature extremes is one of the main expected impacts of climate change, as well as one of the first signs of its occurrence. Nevertheless, results emerging from General Circulation Models, while sufficient for large scales, are not enough for forecasting local trends and, hence, the IPCC has called for local studies based on on-site data. Indeed, it is expected that climate extremes will be detected much earlier than changes in climate averages. Heat waves are among the most important and least studied climate extremes, however its occurrence has been only barely studied and even its very definition remains controversial. This paper discusses the observed changes in temperature trends and heat waves in Northwestern Mexico, one of the most vulnerable regions of the country. The climate records in two locations of the region are analyzed, including one of the cities with extreme climate in Mexico, Mexicali City in the state of Baja California and the Yaqui River basin at Sonora State using three different methodologies. Results showed clear trends on temperature increase and occurrence of heat waves in both of the study zones using the three methodologies proposed. As result, some policy making suggestion are included in order to increase the adaptability of the studied regions to climate change, particularly related with heat wave occurrence.

A land management history for central Queensland, Australia as determined from land-holder questionnaire and aerial photography.

PubMed

Fensham, Roderick J; Fairfax, Russell J

2003-08-01

Features of the land management history over a 125,755 km(2) area of central Queensland, Australia were determined from a variety of sources. A random sample of 205 site locations provided the basis for determining trends in land use. Trends in vegetation clearing were determined using sequential aerial photography for the sample sites, revealing a steady rate averaging nearly 1% of the region per annum over 41 years. This measure of sustained clearing over a large region is higher than recently published clearing rates from South America. Land types have been selectively cleared with over 90% of the Acacia on clay land type having been cleared. A land-holder questionnaire pertaining to the random sites yielded a response rate of 71% and provided information on vegetation clearing, ploughing, tree killing (ring-barking or tree poisoning), and fire frequency, season and intensity. The land-holder responses were compared with independent data sources where possible and revealed no mis-information. However, land-holders may have been marginally less likely to respond if the sample area had been cleared, although this effect was not statistically significant. Ploughing and tree killing are variable depending on land type, but the former has affected about 40% of the Acacia on clay land type, effectively eliminating options for natural regrowth. The proportion of decade-site combinations that were reported as having no fires increased from 22% in the 1950s to an average of 42% for subsequent decades, although the reporting of more than one fire per decade has been relatively constant through the study period. The reporting of at least one fire per decade varies from 46% for the Acacia on sand land type to 77% for the Eucalypt on sand land type for decade-site combinations. Fires are more intense when associated with clearing than in uncleared vegetation, but the proportion of cool and hot fires is relatively constant between land types in uncleared vegetation. Nearly all fires reported were either in spring or summer and this seasonally restricted regime is probably at variance with Aboriginal fire regimes. This study describes the rapid transformation of central Queensland. This has yielded substantially increased agricultural production but may also result in a range of negative impacts and these are discussed.

Women in medicine: historical perspectives and recent trends.

PubMed

Jefferson, Laura; Bloor, Karen; Maynard, Alan

2015-06-01

Women now outnumber men in British medical schools. This paper charts the history of women in medicine and provides current demographic trends. A historical literature review and routinely collected data from Department of Health and the Health and Social Care Information Centre. Clear gender differences are apparent in working practices, including greater likelihood of working part time and specializing in certain areas of medicine. The increasing need to increase activity among the existing medical workforce is timely amidst a changing workforce demographic. Workforce planners, policymakers and Royal Colleges should continue to develop interventions that may reduce disparities in career choices, as well as considering ways to increase participation and activity. Further research is needed to explore the cost-effectiveness of existing and future interventions in this field. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Contrasting cardiovascular mortality trends in Eastern Mediterranean populations: Contributions from risk factor changes and treatments.

PubMed

Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon; O'Flaherty, Martin; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen; Rastam, Samer; Saidi, Olfa; Sözmen, Kaan; Shoaibi, Azza; Husseini, Abdullatif; Fouad, Fouad; Ben Mansour, Nadia; Aissi, Wafa; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Unal, Belgin; Bandosz, Piotr; Bennett, Kathleen; Dherani, Mukesh; Al Ali, Radwan; Maziak, Wasim; Arık, Hale; Gerçeklioğlu, Gül; Altun, Deniz Utku; Şimşek, Hatice; Doganay, Sinem; Demiral, Yücel; Aslan, Özgür; Unwin, Nigel; Phillimore, Peter; Achour, Nourredine; Aissi, Waffa; Allani, Riadh; Arfa, Chokra; Abu-Kteish, Heidar; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen; Al Ali, Radwan; Altun, Deniz; Ahmad, Balsam; Arık, Hale; Aslan, Özgür; Beltaifa, Latifa; Ben Mansour, Nadia; Bennett, Kathleen; Ben Romdhane, Habiba; Ben Salah, Nabil; Collins, Marissa; Critchley, Julia; Capewell, Simon; Dherani, Mukesh; Demiral, Yücel; Doganay, Sinem; Elias, Madonna; Ergör, Gül; Fadhil, Ibtihal; Fouad, Fouad; Gerçeklioğlu, Gül; Ghandour, Rula; Göğen, Sibel; Husseini, Abdullatif; Jaber, Samer; Kalaca, Sibel; Khatib, Rana; Khatib, Rasha; Koudsie, Saer; Kilic, Bülent; Lassoued, Olfa; Mason, Helen; Maziak, Wasim; Mayaleh, Maher Abou; Mikki, Nahed; Moukeh, Ghmaez; Flaherty, Martin O; Phillimore, Peter; Rastam, Samer; Roglic, Gojka; Saidi, Olfa; Saatli, Gül; Satman, Ilhan; Shoaibi, Azza; Şimşek, Hatice; Soulaiman, Nesrien; Sözmen, Kaan; Tlili, Faten; Unal, Belgin; Unwin, Nigel; Yardim, Nazan; Zaman, Shahaduz

2016-04-01

Middle income countries are facing an epidemic of non-communicable diseases, especially coronary heart disease (CHD). We used a validated CHD mortality model (IMPACT) to explain recent trends in Tunisia, Syria, the occupied Palestinian territory (oPt) and Turkey. Data on populations, mortality, patient numbers, treatments and risk factor trends from national and local surveys in each country were collated over two time points (1995-97; 2006-09); integrated and analysed using the IMPACT model. Risk factor trends: Smoking prevalence was high in men, persisting in Syria but decreasing in Tunisia, oPt and Turkey. BMI rose by 1-2 kg/m(2) and diabetes prevalence increased by 40%-50%. Mean systolic blood pressure and cholesterol levels increased in Tunisia and Syria. Mortality trends: Age-standardised CHD mortality rates rose by 20% in Tunisia and 62% in Syria. Much of this increase (79% and 72% respectively) was attributed to adverse trends in major risk factors, occurring despite some improvements in treatment uptake. CHD mortality rates fell by 17% in oPt and by 25% in Turkey, with risk factor changes accounting for around 46% and 30% of this reduction respectively. Increased uptake of community treatments (drug treatments for chronic angina, heart failure, hypertension and secondary prevention after a cardiac event) accounted for most of the remainder. CHD death rates are rising in Tunisia and Syria, whilst oPt and Turkey demonstrate clear falls, reflecting improvements in major risk factors with contributions from medical treatments. However, smoking prevalence remains very high in men; obesity and diabetes levels are rising dramatically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The MICORE review of historical changes in storminess in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavola, P.

2009-12-01

The main objective of the European-funded MICORE project is to develop and demonstrate on-line tools for the reliable prediction of storm impacts on coastlines and to develop and enhance existing civil protection strategies. The magnitude and frequency of storms was analyzed at 9 diverse Europe sites in order to determine storm trends over a period spanning between 30 and 100 years. Meteorological and marine data available at national and European level were included in the analysis. Here the aim was to improve understanding of coastal responses to changes in storminess and only event above a locally defined storm threshold were considered. This overcame the problems associated with the integration and comparison of information from widely dispersed geographical locations in Europe. The storm duration analysis performed for France (Aquitaine and Mediterranean), Italy (Northern Adriatic), Portugal (West Coast), Spain (Catalonia) and UK (Eastern Irish Sea) did not find any statistically significant change during the studied period. Similarly, no significant trends were observed for the Bulgarian and southern Portugal sites. The Polish site was the exception, showing a slight increase in storminess over the period studied. No clear trends in storm intensity were found for Italy-Northern Adriatic (waves and winds), Portugal-West Coast, and UK - Eastern Irish Sea. Similarly, Belgium, the Netherlands and Spain-Atlantic Andalusia (waves) did not detect any statistically significant trends. However, data from the Bulgarian and southern Portuguese coastlines indicated a slightly decreasing storminess trend. In contrast, a slight increase in storm frequency was observed in France-Aquitaine and Mediterranean (from the 1970s till 1990s), Italy-Northern Adriatic (only surges), Poland (significant both for surges and waves) and Spain-Andalusia (significant for wind). Results from the coastal regions in this study therefore support the conclusion that there are no significant trends detected in the magnitude or frequency of storms in Europe during the study period. The study provided some evidence that storminess variability is much higher than the observed trends at the time-scales used in this work (i.e. more than 3 decades). It was, however, not possible to observe any clear association between storminess changes and changes in the global climate. This does not imply that global climate change consequences will not have an influence on European storminess and on storminess impacts in the future. However, for the existing and available data sets at a European level, those impacts have not been detected in this study It is important to note also that although no clear trends in storminess emerge from the present study, this result does not necessarily imply that longer-term trends are absent. The study so far did not considered changes in the occurrence of “clusters” of events, i.e. the occurrence of several medium-energy events over a short time-scale. With respect to coastal evolution such storm ‘sequencing’ can have a major role in depleting beach sediments and decreasing resilience of dune ridges. Understanding and predicting this impact using innovative approaches will form the next area of work in the MICORE project and will provide a basis for the development of future coastal storm warning systems.

Uncertainties in observations and climate projections for the North East India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soraisam, Bidyabati; Karumuri, Ashok; D. S., Pai

2018-01-01

The Northeast-India has undergone many changes in climatic-vegetation related issues in the last few decades due to increased human activities. However, lack of observations makes it difficult to ascertain the climate change. The study involves the mean, seasonal cycle, trend and extreme-month analysis for summer-monsoon and winter seasons of observed climate data from Indian Meteorological Department (1° × 1°) and Aphrodite & CRU-reanalysis (both 0.5° × 0.5°), and five regional-climate-model simulations (LMDZ, MPI, GFDL, CNRM and ACCESS) data from AR5/CORDEX-South-Asia (0.5° × 0.5°). Long-term (1970-2005) observed, minimum and maximum monthly temperature and precipitation, and the corresponding CORDEX-South-Asia data for historical (1970-2005) and future-projections of RCP4.5 (2011-2060) have been analyzed for long-term trends. A large spread is found across the models in spatial distributions of various mean maximum/minimum climate statistics, though models capture a similar trend in the corresponding area-averaged seasonal cycles qualitatively. Our observational analysis broadly suggests that there is no significant trend in rainfall. Significant trends are observed in the area-averaged minimum temperature during winter. All the CORDEX-South-Asia simulations for the future project either a decreasing insignificant trend in seasonal precipitation, but increasing trend for both seasonal maximum and minimum temperature over the northeast India. The frequency of extreme monthly maximum and minimum temperature are projected to increase. It is not clear from future projections how the extreme rainfall months during JJAS may change. The results show the uncertainty exists in the CORDEX-South-Asia model projections over the region in spite of the relatively high resolution.

Detection and estimation trends linked to air quality and mortality on French Riviera over the 1990-2005 period.

PubMed

Sicard, Pierre; Mangin, Antoine; Hebel, Pierre; Malléa, Patrick

2010-03-15

There is a profound relation between human health and well being from the one side and air pollution levels from the other. Air quality in South of France and more specifically in Nice, is known to be bad, especially in summer. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test has been developed for detecting and estimating monotonic trends in the time series and applied in our study at annual values of pollutants air concentrations and mortality. An important objective of many environmental monitoring programs is to detect changes or trends in pollution levels over time. Over the period 1990-2005, concerning the emissions of main pollutants, we obtained significant decreasing trends. By considering the ozone mean values in urban areas over the 1997-2005 period, an increase of 3.0% year(-1) was obtained with annual averages and 3.9% year(-1) with median values. A clear increasing trend for PM(10) ambient concentrations is obtained. In addition, we observed an increase of the Olea (and Grass) pollination season. Over the same period, an annual change rate of +0.31% year(-1) for "airway diseases" and of +2.50% year(-1) for "unknown causes" were identified in the "Alpes Maritimes" county. To see the results, there seems to be a short-term link between the levels of these pollutants and mortality for respiratory causes. The other pollutants concentration showed a downward trend reflecting the reduction policy of the emissions. In addition, we obtained significant decreasing trends concerning the "ischemic heart diseases" (-1.20% year(-1)) and "asthma" (-4.03% year(-1)) categories. No significant gender-related difference was identified for these groups.

Vietnam’s Drive to Modernize Militarily - Causes and Implications

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

56 Clearly, Vietnam has a fear of Chinese aggression and competes with China over maritime claims; however, with Indonesia, Malaysia , Singapore...value of naval expenditures to increase.142 Vietnam has joined Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia as ASEAN’s best navies. Regarding submarines, Thayer...frigates will likely outperform Indonesia’s and rival Singapore’s.145 Regarding trends, Bob Nugent writes, “In Malaysia and Indonesia…each

An 80-year record of sediment quality in the lower Mississippi River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Van Metre, Peter C.; Horowitz, Arthur J.

2013-01-01

In 1937, the US Army Corps of Engineers cut through the "neck" of a large meander on the lower Mississippi River (below the confluence with the Ohio River) forming the Caulk Neck cutoff and creating Lake Whittington, a 26-km long oxbow lake, in northern Mississippi. Since 1938, seasonal flooding and a boat channel connecting the lake with the Mississippi River have led to sediment accumulation in the lake, resulting in an 80-year record of sediment quality in the river. On the basis of an age-dated sediment core from the lake, trends in trace metals and hydrophobic organic compounds (except polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons) follow well-known patterns with upward trends from the 1930s to the ca 1970s, followed by downward trends to the present. Two factors contribute to these patterns: reservoir construction and changes in emissions. The construction of seven large reservoirs on the Missouri River, in particular the closure of the Fort Randall (1953) and Gavins Point (1955) Dams, greatly reduced the load of relatively clean sediment to the Mississippi River, likely contributing to downstream increases in contaminant concentrations in the Mississippi River. Increasing anthropogenic emissions also contributed to upward trends until ca 1970 when major environmental policy actions began resulting in broad decreases in emissions and downward trends in the concentrations of most of the contaminants monitored. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and phosphorus are partial exceptions to this pattern, with increases to the 1960s and variable concentrations showing no clear trend since. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Comparison of global observations and trends of total precipitable water derived from microwave radiometers and COSMIC radio occultation from 2006 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Shu-Peng; Peng, Liang; Mears, Carl; Anthes, Richard A.

2018-01-01

We compare atmospheric total precipitable water (TPW) derived from the SSM/I (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) and SSMIS (Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder) radiometers and WindSat to collocated TPW estimates derived from COSMIC (Constellation System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate) radio occultation (RO) under clear and cloudy conditions over the oceans from June 2006 to December 2013. Results show that the mean microwave (MW) radiometer - COSMIC TPW differences range from 0.06 to 0.18 mm for clear skies, from 0.79 to 0.96 mm for cloudy skies, from 0.46 to 0.49 mm for cloudy but non-precipitating conditions, and from 1.64 to 1.88 mm for precipitating conditions. Because RO measurements are not significantly affected by clouds and precipitation, the biases mainly result from MW retrieval uncertainties under cloudy and precipitating conditions. All COSMIC and MW radiometers detect a positive TPW trend over these 8 years. The trend using all COSMIC observations collocated with MW pixels for this data set is 1.79 mm decade-1, with a 95 % confidence interval of (0.96, 2.63), which is in close agreement with the trend estimated by the collocated MW observations (1.78 mm decade-1 with a 95 % confidence interval of 0.94, 2.62). The sample of MW and RO pairs used in this study is highly biased toward middle latitudes (40-60° N and 40-65° S), and thus these trends are not representative of global average trends. However, they are representative of the latitudes of extratropical storm tracks and the trend values are approximately 4 to 6 times the global average trends, which are approximately 0.3 mm decade-1. In addition, the close agreement of these two trends from independent observations, which represent an increase in TPW in our data set of about 6.9 %, are a strong indication of the positive water vapor-temperature feedback on a warming planet in regions where precipitation from extratropical storms is already large.

Decreasing DOC trends in soil solution along the hillslopes at two IM sites in southern Sweden--geochemical modeling of organic matter solubility during acidification recovery.

PubMed

Löfgren, Stefan; Gustafsson, Jon Petter; Bringmark, Lage

2010-12-01

Numerous studies report increased concentrations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) during the last two decades in boreal lakes and streams in Europe and North America. Recently, a hypothesis was presented on how various spatial and temporal factors affect the DOC dynamics. It was concluded that declining sulphur deposition and thereby increased DOC solubility, is the most important driver for the long-term DOC concentration trends in surface waters. If this recovery hypothesis is correct, the DOC levels should increase both in the soil solution as well as in the surrounding surface waters as soil pH rises and the ionic strength declines due to the reduced input of SO(4)(2-) ions. In this project a geochemical model was set up to calculate the net humic charge and DOC solubility trends in soils during the period 1996-2007 at two integrated monitoring sites in southern Sweden, showing clear signs of acidification recovery. The Stockholm Humic Model was used to investigate whether the observed DOC solubility is related to the humic charge and to examine how pH and ionic strength influence it. Soil water data from recharge and discharge areas, covering both podzols and riparian soils, were used. The model exercise showed that the increased net charge following the pH increase was in many cases counteracted by a decreased ionic strength, which acted to decrease the net charge and hence the DOC solubility. Thus, the recovery from acidification does not necessarily have to generate increasing DOC trends in soil solution. Depending on changes in pH, ionic strength and soil Al pools, the trends might be positive, negative or indifferent. Due to the high hydraulic connectivity with the streams, the explanations to the DOC trends in surface waters should be searched for in discharge areas and peat lands. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of clinical trial findings on Bell's palsy management in general practice in the UK 2001–2012: interrupted time series regression analysis

PubMed Central

Morales, Daniel R; Donnan, Peter T; Daly, Fergus; Staa, Tjeerd Van; Sullivan, Frank M

2013-01-01

Objectives To measure the incidence of Bell's palsy and determine the impact of clinical trial findings on Bell's palsy management in the UK. Design Interrupted time series regression analysis and incidence measures. Setting General practices in the UK contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Participants Patients ≥16 years with a diagnosis of Bell's palsy between 2001 and 2012. Interventions (1) Publication of the 2004 Cochrane reviews of clinical trials on corticosteroids and antivirals for Bell's palsy, which made no clear recommendation on their use and (2) publication of the 2007 Scottish Bell's Palsy Study (SBPS), which made a clear recommendation that treatment with prednisolone alone improves chances for complete recovery. Main outcome measures Incidence of Bell's palsy per 100 000 person-years. Changes in the management of Bell's palsy with either prednisolone therapy, antiviral therapy, combination therapy (prednisolone with antiviral therapy) or untreated cases. Results During the 12-year period, 14 460 cases of Bell's palsy were identified with an overall incidence of 37.7/100 000 person-years. The 2004 Cochrane reviews were associated with immediate falls in prednisolone therapy (−6.3% (−11.0 to −1.6)), rising trends in combination therapy (1.1% per quarter (0.5 to 1.7)) and falling trends for untreated cases (−0.8% per quarter (−1.4 to −0.3)). SBPS was associated with immediate increases in prednisolone therapy (5.1% (0.9 to 9.3)) and rising trends in prednisolone therapy (0.7% per quarter (0.4 to 1.2)); falling trends in combination therapy (−1.7% per quarter (−2.2 to −1.3)); and rising trends for untreated cases (1.2% per quarter (0.8 to 1.6)). Despite improvements, 44% still remain untreated. Conclusions SBPS was clearly associated with change in management, but a significant proportion of patients failed to receive effective treatment, which cannot be fully explained. Clarity and uncertainty in clinical trial recommendations may change clinical practice. However, better ways are needed to understand and circumvent barriers in implementing clinical trial findings. PMID:23864211

Impact of clinical trial findings on Bell's palsy management in general practice in the UK 2001-2012: interrupted time series regression analysis.

PubMed

Morales, Daniel R; Donnan, Peter T; Daly, Fergus; Staa, Tjeerd Van; Sullivan, Frank M

2013-01-01

To measure the incidence of Bell's palsy and determine the impact of clinical trial findings on Bell's palsy management in the UK. Interrupted time series regression analysis and incidence measures. General practices in the UK contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD). Patients ≥16 years with a diagnosis of Bell's palsy between 2001 and 2012. (1) Publication of the 2004 Cochrane reviews of clinical trials on corticosteroids and antivirals for Bell's palsy, which made no clear recommendation on their use and (2) publication of the 2007 Scottish Bell's Palsy Study (SBPS), which made a clear recommendation that treatment with prednisolone alone improves chances for complete recovery. Incidence of Bell's palsy per 100 000 person-years. Changes in the management of Bell's palsy with either prednisolone therapy, antiviral therapy, combination therapy (prednisolone with antiviral therapy) or untreated cases. During the 12-year period, 14 460 cases of Bell's palsy were identified with an overall incidence of 37.7/100 000 person-years. The 2004 Cochrane reviews were associated with immediate falls in prednisolone therapy (-6.3% (-11.0 to -1.6)), rising trends in combination therapy (1.1% per quarter (0.5 to 1.7)) and falling trends for untreated cases (-0.8% per quarter (-1.4 to -0.3)). SBPS was associated with immediate increases in prednisolone therapy (5.1% (0.9 to 9.3)) and rising trends in prednisolone therapy (0.7% per quarter (0.4 to 1.2)); falling trends in combination therapy (-1.7% per quarter (-2.2 to -1.3)); and rising trends for untreated cases (1.2% per quarter (0.8 to 1.6)). Despite improvements, 44% still remain untreated. SBPS was clearly associated with change in management, but a significant proportion of patients failed to receive effective treatment, which cannot be fully explained. Clarity and uncertainty in clinical trial recommendations may change clinical practice. However, better ways are needed to understand and circumvent barriers in implementing clinical trial findings.

Drought variability and change across the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coll, J. R.; Aguilar, E.; Ashcroft, L.

2017-11-01

Drought variability and change was assessed across the Iberian Peninsula over more than 100 years expanding through the twentieth century and the first decade of the twenty-first century. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 24 Iberian time series were quality controlled and homogenized to create the Monthly Iberian Temperature and Precipitation Series (MITPS) for the period 1906-2010. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), driven only by precipitation, and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), based on the difference between the precipitation and the reference evapotranspiration (ET0), were computed at annual and seasonal scale to describe the evolution of droughts across time. The results confirmed that a clear temperature increase has occurred over the entire Iberian Peninsula at the annual and seasonal scale, but no significant changes in precipitation accumulated amounts were found. Similar drought variability was provided by the SPI and SPEI, although the SPEI showed greater drought severity and larger surface area affected by drought than SPI from 1980s to 2010 due to the increase in atmospheric evaporative demand caused by increased temperatures. Moreover, a clear drying trend was found by the SPEI for most of the Iberian Peninsula at annual scale and also for spring and summer, although the SPI did not experience significant changes in drought conditions. From the drying trend identified for most of the Iberian Peninsula along the twentieth century, an increase in drought conditions can also be expected for this region in the twenty-first century according to future climate change projections and scenarios.

Simple sugar intake and hepatocellular carcinoma: epidemiological and mechanistic insight.

PubMed

Laguna, Juan Carlos; Alegret, Marta; Roglans, Núria

2014-12-22

Sugar intake has dramatically increased during the last few decades. Specifically, there has been a clear trend towards higher consumption of fructose and high fructose corn syrup, which are the most common added sugars in processed food, soft drinks and other sweetened beverages. Although still controversial, this rising trend in simple sugar consumption has been positively associated with weight gain and obesity, insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes mellitus and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Interestingly, all of these metabolic alterations have also been related to the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. The purpose of this review is to discuss the evidence coming from epidemiological studies and data from animal models relating the consumption of simple sugars, and specifically fructose, with an increased risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and to gain insight into the putative molecular mechanisms involved.

Obesity explains gender differences in the association between education level and metabolic syndrome in South Korea: the results from the Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2010.

PubMed

Ko, Ki Dong; Cho, BeLong; Lee, Won Chul; Lee, Hae Won; Lee, Hyun Ki; Oh, Bum Jo

2015-03-01

This study aimed to examine the association of educational level with metabolic syndrome (MS) and its risk factors by gender in South Korea. A total of 6178 participants aged 20 years or older from The Fifth Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were included in this study. A generalized linear model and adjusted proportion were used to identify educational disparities in MS, its components, and its risk factors (smoking, high-risk alcohol consumption, obesity, and stress). In women, a clearly inverse association between education level and MS were observed with significant trend, and the decreasing trends of all risk factors across education quartiles were in line with the inverse association. However, the association between education level and MS was not observed with a significant trend among men. An opposite trend of risk factors across education levels was shown in men, with an increasing trend for obesity and decreasing trends for smoking and high-risk alcohol consumption. These findings demonstrate that obesity can explain gender differences in the association between education level and MS in South Korea. © 2013 APJPH.

Temporal trends in adolescents’ self-reported psychosomatic health complaints from 1980-2016: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Potrebny, Thomas; Wiium, Nora; Lundegård, Margrethe Moss-Iversen

2017-01-01

Objective There is increasing concern that mental health may be deteriorating in recent generations of adolescents. It is unclear whether this is the case for self-reported psychosomatic health complaints (PSHC). Method We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of published primary studies on PSHC in the general adolescent population over time. The primary databases were MEDLINE, Embase and PsycINFO, which were searched from inception to November 2016. Studies were included if they involved an observational design, presented self-reported data from participants aged 10–19 years and included data from at least two time points, five years apart. Inclusion and study quality were assessed by two independent reviewers. Results Twenty-one studies were included; 18 reported trends on the prevalence of PSHC in a single country, while three studies reported on multiple countries. In total, over seven million adolescents from 36 countries in Europe, North America, Israel and New Zealand were represented, covering the period 1982–2013. In the descriptive analysis, 10 studies indicated a trend of increasing PSHC, eight showed a stable trend and three showed a decreasing trend at certain points in time. The results from the meta-analysis showed a mean odds ratio (OR) of 1.04 (K = 139, 95% CI 1.01–1.08) for PSHC from 1982 to 2013, thus indicating a minor increase in general. In the subgroup analysis, this minor increase was observed mainly between the 1980s and 2000s, while the trend appeared to be more stable between the 2000s and 2010s. Some differences were also found between multinational subregions. Findings from subgroup analysis, however, only supported a significant increasing trend in Northern Europe. Conclusion There may have been a minor increasing trend in adolescent self-rated PSHC between the 1980 and 2000s, but has become more stable since the 2010s, from a multinational perspective. Northern Europe was the only region to show a clearly significant minor increasing trend, without being the region with the highest total prevalence of PSHC at the present time. The discrepant trends regarding PSHC between regions and the reliance on self-reported data may reflect true changes in the occurrence of PSHC in the adolescent population. However, they may also reflect changes in how adolescents perceive and report health complaints. Other PROSPERO registration 2016: CRD42016048300. PMID:29182644

Evidence for a Continuous Decline in Lower Stratospheric Ozone Offsetting Ozone Layer Recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Staehelin, Johannes; Haigh, Joanna D.; Peter, Thomas; Tummon, Fiona; Stuebi, Rene; Stenke, Andrea; Anderson, John;

Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ball, William T.; Alsing, Justin; Mortlock, Daniel J.; Staehelin, Johannes; Haigh, Joanna D.; Peter, Thomas; Tummon, Fiona; Stübi, Rene; Stenke, Andrea; Anderson, John; Bourassa, Adam; Davis, Sean M.; Degenstein, Doug; Frith, Stacey; Froidevaux, Lucien; Roth, Chris; Sofieva, Viktoria; Wang, Ray; Wild, Jeannette; Yu, Pengfei; Ziemke, Jerald R.; Rozanov, Eugene V.

2018-02-01

Ozone forms in the Earth's atmosphere from the photodissociation of molecular oxygen, primarily in the tropical stratosphere. It is then transported to the extratropics by the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), forming a protective ozone layer around the globe. Human emissions of halogen-containing ozone-depleting substances (hODSs) led to a decline in stratospheric ozone until they were banned by the Montreal Protocol, and since 1998 ozone in the upper stratosphere is rising again, likely the recovery from halogen-induced losses. Total column measurements of ozone between the Earth's surface and the top of the atmosphere indicate that the ozone layer has stopped declining across the globe, but no clear increase has been observed at latitudes between 60° S and 60° N outside the polar regions (60-90°). Here we report evidence from multiple satellite measurements that ozone in the lower stratosphere between 60° S and 60° N has indeed continued to decline since 1998. We find that, even though upper stratospheric ozone is recovering, the continuing downward trend in the lower stratosphere prevails, resulting in a downward trend in stratospheric column ozone between 60° S and 60° N. We find that total column ozone between 60° S and 60° N appears not to have decreased only because of increases in tropospheric column ozone that compensate for the stratospheric decreases. The reasons for the continued reduction of lower stratospheric ozone are not clear; models do not reproduce these trends, and thus the causes now urgently need to be established.

Intra-national variation in trends in overweight and leisure time physical activities in The Netherlands since 1980: stratification according to sex, age and urbanisation degree.

PubMed

Gast, G C M; Gast, G-C M; Frenken, F J M; van Leest, L A T M; Wendel-Vos, G C W; Bemelmans, W J E

2007-03-01

To investigate time trends in overweight and Leisure Time Physical Activities (LTPA) in The Netherlands since 1980. Intra-national differences were examined stratified for sex, age and urbanisation degree. We used a random sample of about 140,000 respondents aged 20-69 years from the Health Interview Survey (Nethhis) and subsequent Permanent Survey on Living Conditions (POLS). Self-reported data on weight and height and demographic characteristics were gathered through interviews (every year) and data on LTPA were collected by self-administered questionnaires (1990-1997, 2001-2004). Linear regression analysis was performed for trend analyses. During 1981-2004, mean body mass index (BMI) increased significantly by 1.0 kg/m(2) (average per year=0.05 kg/m(2)). Trends were similar across sex and different degrees of urbanisation, but varied across age groups. In 20-to 39-year-old women, mean BMI increased by 1.7 kg/m(2), which was more than in older age groups (P

Air pollution or global warming: Attribution of extreme precipitation changes in eastern China—Comments on "Trends of extreme precipitation in Eastern China and their possible causes"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuan

2015-10-01

The recent study "Trends of Extreme Precipitation in Eastern China and Their Possible Causes" attributed the observed decrease/increase of light/heavy precipitation in eastern China to global warming rather than the regional aerosol effects. However, there exist compelling evidence from previous long-term observations and numerical modeling studies, suggesting that anthropogenic pollution is closely linked to the recent changes in precipitation intensity because of considerably modulated cloud physical properties by aerosols in eastern China. Clearly, a quantitative assessment of the aerosol and greenhouse effects on the regional scale is required to identify the primary cause for the extreme precipitation changes.

Intelligibility of clear speech: effect of instruction.

PubMed

Lam, Jennifer; Tjaden, Kris

2013-10-01

The authors investigated how clear speech instructions influence sentence intelligibility. Twelve speakers produced sentences in habitual, clear, hearing impaired, and overenunciate conditions. Stimuli were amplitude normalized and mixed with multitalker babble for orthographic transcription by 40 listeners. The main analysis investigated percentage-correct intelligibility scores as a function of the 4 conditions and speaker sex. Additional analyses included listener response variability, individual speaker trends, and an alternate intelligibility measure: proportion of content words correct. Relative to the habitual condition, the overenunciate condition was associated with the greatest intelligibility benefit, followed by the hearing impaired and clear conditions. Ten speakers followed this trend. The results indicated different patterns of clear speech benefit for male and female speakers. Greater listener variability was observed for speakers with inherently low habitual intelligibility compared to speakers with inherently high habitual intelligibility. Stable proportions of content words were observed across conditions. Clear speech instructions affected the magnitude of the intelligibility benefit. The instruction to overenunciate may be most effective in clear speech training programs. The findings may help explain the range of clear speech intelligibility benefit previously reported. Listener variability analyses suggested the importance of obtaining multiple listener judgments of intelligibility, especially for speakers with inherently low habitual intelligibility.

Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth's surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends. Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning, remain insufficiently quantified to be examined. Global predictions for increased fire under a warming climate highlight the already urgent need for a more sustainable coexistence with fire. The data evaluation presented here aims to contribute to this by reducing misconceptions and facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire. This article is part of themed issue ‘The interaction of fire and mankind’. PMID:27216515

Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world.

PubMed

Doerr, Stefan H; Santín, Cristina

2016-06-05

Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth's surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Yet many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. However, important exceptions aside, the quantitative evidence available does not support these perceived overall trends. Instead, global area burned appears to have overall declined over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning, remain insufficiently quantified to be examined. Global predictions for increased fire under a warming climate highlight the already urgent need for a more sustainable coexistence with fire. The data evaluation presented here aims to contribute to this by reducing misconceptions and facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.This article is part of themed issue 'The interaction of fire and mankind'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Behavioural disinhibition in the general population during the antiretroviral therapy roll-out in Sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Legemate, Eva M; Hontelez, Jan A C; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

2017-07-01

Improved life expectancy and reduced transmission probabilities due to ART may result in behavioural disinhibition - that is an increase in sexual risk behaviour in response to a perceived lower risk of HIV. We examined trends in sexual risk behaviour in the general population of sub-Saharan African countries 1999-2015. We systematically reviewed scientific literature of sexual behaviour and reviewed trends in Demographic and Health Surveys. A meta-analysis on four indicators of sexual risk behaviour was performed: unprotected sex, multiple sexual partners, commercial sex and prevalence of sexually transmitted infections. Only two peer-reviewed studies met our inclusion criteria, while our review of DHS data spanned 18 countries and 16 years (1999-2015). We found conflicting trends in sexual risk behaviour. Reported unprotected sex decreased consistently across the 18 countries, for both sexes. In contrast, reporting multiple partners was decreasing over the period 1999 to the mid-2000s, yet has been consistently increasing thereafter. Similar trends were found for reported sexually transmitted infections and commercial sex (men only). In conclusion, we found no clear evidence of behavioural disinhibition due to expanded access to ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Substantial increases in condom use coincided with increases in reported multiple partners, commercial sex and sexually transmitted infections, especially during the period of ART scale-up. Further research is needed into how these changes might affect HIV transmission. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

On the variability of cold region flooding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, Bettina; Dahlke, Helen E.; Lyon, Steve W.

2016-03-01

Cold region hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with both climate and the cryosphere. Improving knowledge on that complexity is essential to determine drivers of extreme events and to predict changes under altered climate conditions. This is particularly true for cold region flooding where independent shifts in both precipitation and temperature can have significant influence on high flows. This study explores changes in the magnitude and the timing of streamflow in 18 Swedish Sub-Arctic catchments over their full record periods available and a common period (1990-2013). The Mann-Kendall trend test was used to estimate changes in several hydrological signatures (e.g. annual maximum daily flow, mean summer flow, snowmelt onset). Further, trends in the flood frequency were determined by fitting an extreme value type I (Gumbel) distribution to test selected flood percentiles for stationarity using a generalized least squares regression approach. Results highlight shifts from snowmelt-dominated to rainfall-dominated flow regimes with all significant trends (at the 5% significance level) pointing toward (1) lower magnitudes in the spring flood; (2) earlier flood occurrence; (3) earlier snowmelt onset; and (4) decreasing mean summer flows. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows suggest widespread permafrost thawing and are supported by increasing trends in annual minimum daily flows. Trends in selected flood percentiles showed an increase in extreme events over the full periods of record (significant for only four catchments), while trends were variable over the common period of data among the catchments. An uncertainty analysis emphasizes that the observed trends are highly sensitive to the period of record considered. As such, no clear overall regional hydrological response pattern could be determined suggesting that catchment response to regionally consistent changes in climatic drivers is strongly influenced by their physical characteristics.

Long-term trends of biogenic sulfur aerosol and its relationship with sea surface temperature in Arctic Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laing, James R.; Hopke, Philip K.; Hopke, Eleanor F.; Husain, Liaquat; Dutkiewicz, Vincent A.; Paatero, Jussi; Viisanen, Yrjö

2013-10-01

years of week-long total suspended particle samples from Kevo Finland were analyzed for methane sulfonic acid (MSA) and sulfate. Kevo is located 350 km north of the Arctic Circle. MSA and non-sea-salt sulfate (NSS-SO4) showed clear seasonal trends. MSA peaks from May to July, coinciding with warmer waters and increased biogenic activity in the surrounding seas. NSS-SO4 peaks in March with a minimum during the summer, the typical pattern for Arctic haze. MSA concentrations were found to be positively correlated (p < 0.001) with sea surface temperature anomalies in the surrounding seas. MSA showed a trend of 0.405 ng/m3/yr (0.680%/yr) for June and July. NSS-SO4 concentrations at Kevo declined dramatically in the early 1990s, probably as a result of the collapse of the Soviet Union. The decline has continued since the mid-1990s.

Extended rotations and culmination age of coast douglas-fir: Old studies speak to current issues. Forest Service research paper

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Curtis, R.O.

1995-11-01

Trends of mean annual increment and periodic annual increment were examined in 17 long-term thinning studies in Douglas-fir (Pseuditsuga menziesii var. menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) in western Washington, western Oregon, and British Columbia. Problems in evaluating growth trends and culmination ages are discussed. None of the stands had clearly reached culmination of mean annual increment, although some seemed close. The observed trends seem generally consistent with some other recent comparisons. These comparisons indicate that rotations can be considerably extended without reducing long-term timber production; value production probably would increase. A major problem in such a strategy is design of thinning regimesmore » that can maintain a reasonable level of timber flow during the transition period while producing stand conditions compatible with other management objectives. The continuing value of long-term permanent plot studies is emphasized.« less

Trends and driving mechanism of land-use change in metropolitan areas of Pearl River Delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Feng-gui; Zhang, Hong-ou; Wang, Juan; Wu, Qi-tao

2008-10-01

Taking Pearl River Delta for an example this study focuses on the trends and the driving mechanism of land-use changes in metropolises, in order to achieve the fundamental objectives of LUCC study increasing the awareness on dynamics of global land-use and land-cover changes, and improving the ability of forecasting LUCC. By analyzing the land-use change in Pearl River Delta from 1996 to 2006, it is found that the differences among internal space are notable. By establishing time-sequence-curve with SPSS software, it is shown that trends of land-use change are very clear. With factor analysis on land-use change, the study summarizes four factors of driving mechanism, including factors of economic development level, regional industrial structure, demographic and agricultural structure adjustment, which impact land change in Pearl River Delta to a different extent.

A Study of Current Trends and Issues Related to Technical/Engineering Design Graphics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Aaron C.; Scales Alice

2000-01-01

Presents results from a survey of engineering design graphics educators who responded to questions related to current trends and issues in the profession of graphics education. Concludes that there is a clear trend in institutions towards the teaching of constraint-based modeling and computer-aided manufacturing. (Author/YDS)

The response of tundra springtails (Collembola, Hexapoda) to human activity on the Murman coast of the Kola Penisula, Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olejniczak, Izabella; Boniecki, Paweł; Kaliszewicz, Anita; Panteleeva, Ninel

2018-03-01

This study was carried out in the Dalne Zelentsy settlement (69°07‧N, 36°03‧E) on the Barents Sea of the Kola Penisula in Russia. Three transects were established: the 'new garden transect'; the 'old garden transect'; and the 'settlement transect'. Overall, the number of springtails increased with distance from the 'settlement' and decreased from the 'old garden' towards the tundra. However, in the case of the 'new garden transect' there were no clear trends in springtail abundance. Eleven species of springtail were found, with Parisotoma notabilis being found at each of the studied areas along the transects. Trends in the species diversity of the springtail communities were not clear, and the values of H‧ ranged from 1.36 to 2.08. The springtail communities located 10 m from the 'new garden' and the 'old garden' were characterized by low species diversity compared with the other sites along the transects (H‧ values of 1.36 and 1.67, respectively). There were no differences in species diversity among the springtail communities along the 'settlement transect'.

Long-term variability of aerosol optical properties and radiative effects in Northern Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lihavainen, Heikki; Hyvärinen, Antti; Asmi, Eija; Hatakka, Juha; Viisanen, Yrjö

2017-04-01

We introduce long term dataset of aerosol scattering and absorption properties and combined aerosol optical properties measured in Pallas Atmosphere-Ecosystem Supersite in Norhern Finland. The station is located 170 km north of the Arctic Circle. The station is affected by both pristine Arctic air masses as well as long transported air pollution from northern Europe. We studied the optical properties of aerosols and their radiative effects in continental and marine air masses, including seasonal cycles and long-term trends. The average (median) scattering coefficient, backscattering fraction, absorption coefficient and single scattering albedo at the wavelength of 550 nm were 7.9 (4.4) 1/Mm, 0.13 (0.12), 0.74 (0.35) 1/Mm and 0.92 (0.93), respectively. We observed clear seasonal cycles in these variables, the scattering coefficient having high values during summer and low in fall, and absorption coefficient having high values during winter and low in fall. We found that the high values of the absorption coefficient and low values of the single scattering albedo were related to continental air masses from lower latitudes. These aerosols can induce an additional effect on the surface albedo and melting of snow. We observed the signal of the Arctic haze in marine (northern) air masses during March and April. The haze increased the value of the absorption coefficient by almost 80% and that of the scattering coefficient by about 50% compared with the annual-average values. We did not observe any long-term trend in the scattering coefficient, while our analysis showed a clear decreasing trend in the backscattering fraction and scattering Ångström exponent during winter. We also observed clear relationship with temperature and aerosol scattering coefficient. We will present also how these different features affects to aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Annual trend patterns of phytoplankton species abundance belie homogeneous taxonomical group responses to climate in the NE Atlantic upwelling.

PubMed

Bode, Antonio; Estévez, M Graciela; Varela, Manuel; Vilar, José A

2015-09-01

Phytoplankton is a sentinel of marine ecosystem change. Composed by many species with different life-history strategies, it rapidly responds to environment changes. An analysis of the abundance of 54 phytoplankton species in Galicia (NW Spain) between 1989 and 2008 to determine the main components of temporal variability in relation to climate and upwelling showed that most of this variability was stochastic, as seasonality and long term trends contributed to relatively small fractions of the series. In general, trends appeared as non linear, and species clustered in 4 groups according to the trend pattern but there was no defined pattern for diatoms, dinoflagellates or other groups. While, in general, total abundance increased, no clear trend was found for 23 species, 14 species decreased, 4 species increased during the early 1990s, and only 13 species showed a general increase through the series. In contrast, series of local environmental conditions (temperature, stratification, nutrients) and climate-related variables (atmospheric pressure indices, upwelling winds) showed a high fraction of their variability in deterministic seasonality and trends. As a result, each species responded independently to environmental and climate variability, measured by generalized additive models. Most species showed a positive relationship with nutrient concentrations but only a few showed a direct relationship with stratification and upwelling. Climate variables had only measurable effects on some species but no common response emerged. Because its adaptation to frequent disturbances, phytoplankton communities in upwelling ecosystems appear less sensitive to changes in regional climate than other communities characterized by short and well defined productive periods. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Long-term exposure to crystalline silica and risk of heart disease mortality.

PubMed

Liu, Yuewei; Rong, Yi; Steenland, Kyle; Christiani, David C; Huang, Xiji; Wu, Tangchun; Chen, Weihong

2014-09-01

The association between crystalline silica exposure and risk of heart disease mortality remains less clear. We investigated a cohort of 42,572 Chinese workers who were potentially exposed to crystalline silica and followed from 1960 to 2003. Cumulative silica exposure was estimated by linking a job-exposure matrix to each person's work history. Low-level silica exposure was defined as never having held a job with an exposure higher than 0.1 mg/m. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) in exposure-response analyses using Cox proportional hazards model. We identified 2846 deaths from heart disease during an average of 35 years follow-up. Positive exposure-response trends were observed for cumulative silica exposure associated with mortality from total heart disease (HRs for increasing quartiles of cumulative silica exposure compared with the unexposed group = 0.89, 1.09, 1.32, 2.10; P for linear trend < 0.001) and pulmonary heart disease (0.92, 1.39, 2.47, 5.46; P for linear trend < 0.001). These positive trends remained among workers with both high- and low-level silica exposure. There was also a positive trend for ischemic heart disease among workers with low-level exposure, with quartile HRs of 1.04, 1.13, 1.52, and 1.60 (P for linear trend < 0.001). Low-level crystalline silica exposure was associated with increased mortality from heart disease, including pulmonary heart disease and ischemic heart disease, whereas high-level exposure mainly increased mortality from pulmonary heart disease. Current permissible exposure limits for crystalline silica in many countries may be insufficient to protect people from deaths due to heart disease.

2001-2012 trends on air quality in Spain.

PubMed

Querol, X; Alastuey, A; Pandolfi, M; Reche, C; Pérez, N; Minguillón, M C; Moreno, T; Viana, M; Escudero, M; Orio, A; Pallarés, M; Reina, F

2014-08-15

This study aims at interpreting the 2001-2012 trends of major air pollutants in Spain, with a major focus on evaluating their relationship with those of the national emission inventories (NEI) and policy actions. Marked downward concentration trends were evidenced for PM10, PM2.5 and CO. Concentrations of NO2 and NOx also declined but in a lesser proportion at rural and traffic sites. At rural sites O3 has been kept constant, whereas it clearly increased at urban and industrial sites. Comparison of the air quality trends and major inflection points with those from NEIs, the National Energy Consumption and the calendar of the implementation of major policy actions allowed us to clearly identify major benefits of European directives on power generation and industrial sources (such as the Large Combustion Plants and the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Directives). This, together with a sharp 2007-2008 decrease of coal consumption has probably caused the marked parallel decline of SO2, NOx and for PM2.5 concentrations. Also the effect of the EURO 4 and 5 vehicle emission standards on decreasing emissions of PM and CO from vehicles is noticeable. The smooth decline in NO2-NOx levels is mostly attributed to the low efficiency of EURO 4 and 5 standards in reducing real life urban driving NO2 emissions. The low NOx decrease together with the complexity of the reactions of O3 formation is responsible for the constant O3 concentrations, or even the urban increase. The financial crisis has also contributed to the decrease of the ambient concentration of pollutants; however this caused a major reduction of the primary energy consumption from 2008 to 2009, and not from 2007 to 2008 when ambient air PM and SO2 sharply decreased. The meteorological influence was characterized by a 2008-2012 period favorable to the dispersion of pollutants when compared to the 2001-2007. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Indirectly estimated absolute lung cancer mortality rates by smoking status and histological type based on a systematic review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background National smoking-specific lung cancer mortality rates are unavailable, and studies presenting estimates are limited, particularly by histology. This hinders interpretation. We attempted to rectify this by deriving estimates indirectly, combining data from national rates and epidemiological studies. Methods We estimated study-specific absolute mortality rates and variances by histology and smoking habit (never/ever/current/former) based on relative risk estimates derived from studies published in the 20th century, coupled with WHO mortality data for age 70–74 for the relevant country and period. Studies with populations grossly unrepresentative nationally were excluded. 70–74 was chosen based on analyses of large cohort studies presenting rates by smoking and age. Variations by sex, period and region were assessed by meta-analysis and meta-regression. Results 148 studies provided estimates (Europe 59, America 54, China 22, other Asia 13), 54 providing estimates by histology (squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma). For all smoking habits and lung cancer types, mortality rates were higher in males, the excess less evident for never smokers. Never smoker rates were clearly highest in China, and showed some increasing time trend, particularly for adenocarcinoma. Ever smoker rates were higher in parts of Europe and America than in China, with the time trend very clear, especially for adenocarcinoma. Variations by time trend and continent were clear for current smokers (rates being higher in Europe and America than Asia), but less clear for former smokers. Models involving continent and trend explained much variability, but non-linearity was sometimes seen (with rates lower in 1991–99 than 1981–90), and there was regional variation within continent (with rates in Europe often high in UK and low in Scandinavia, and higher in North than South America). Conclusions The indirect method may be questioned, because of variations in definition of smoking and lung cancer type in the epidemiological database, changes over time in diagnosis of lung cancer types, lack of national representativeness of some studies, and regional variation in smoking misclassification. However, the results seem consistent with the literature, and provide additional information on variability by time and region, including evidence of a rise in never smoker adenocarcinoma rates relative to squamous cell carcinoma rates. PMID:23570286

Levels and trends in cigarette contraband in Canada

PubMed Central

Guindon, G Emmanuel; Burkhalter, Robin; Brown, K Stephen

2017-01-01

Background There is overwhelming evidence that increases in tobacco taxes reduce tobacco use, save lives and increase government tax revenue. High taxes, however, create an incentive to devise ways to avoid or evade tobacco taxes through contraband tobacco. The associated consequences are significant and call for an accurate measurement of contraband's magnitude. However, its illegal nature makes the levels and trends in contraband intrinsically difficult to measure accurately. Objective To examine levels and trends in cigarette contraband in Canada. Methods We employed 2 approaches: first, we contrasted estimates of tax-paid cigarettes sales with consumption estimates based on survey data; second, we used data from several individual-level surveys that examined smokers' purchasing and use behaviours. We placed a particular emphasis on the provinces of Québec and Ontario because existing research suggests that cigarette contraband levels are far higher than in any other province. Results The estimates presented show a clear upward trend from the early 2000s in cigarette contraband in Québec and Ontario followed by, on the whole, a decreasing trend from about 2007 to 2009. None of the data presented provide support to the narrative that cigarette contraband has been increasing in recent years. Of note are Québec estimates which suggest relatively low levels of cigarette contraband since 2010, at levels no higher than in the early 2000s. Conclusions The data presented suggest that policies to tackle cigarette contraband introduced from the mid-2000s to late 2000s, at both federal and provincial levels, may have dampened the demand for contraband cigarettes. PMID:27601454

Properties and Radial Trends of Coronal Mass Ejecta and Their Associated Shocks Observed by Ulysses in the Ecliptic Plane. Appendix 2; Repr. from Journal of Geophysical Research, v. 105, 2000 p 12,617-12,626

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Riley, Pete; Gosling, J. T.; McComas, D. J.; Forsyth, R. J.

2001-01-01

In this paper, magnetic and plasma measurements are used to analyze 17 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (CMEs) identified by Ulysses during its in-ecliptic passage to Jupiter. We focus on the expansion characteristics of these CMEs (as inferred from the time rate of change of the velocity profiles through the CMEs) and the properties of 14 forward shocks unambiguously associated with these CMEs. We highlight radial trends from 1 to 5.4 AU. Our results indicate that the CMEs are generally expanding at all heliocentric distances. With regard to the shocks preceding these ejecta, we note the following: (1) There is a clear tendency for the shock speed (in the upstream frame of reference) to decrease with increasing heliocentric distance as the CMEs transfer momentum to the ambient solar wind and slow down; (2) 86% of the shock fronts are oriented in the ecliptic plane such that their normals point westward (i.e., in the direction of planetary motion about the Sun), (3) 86% of the shocks are propagating toward the heliographic equator; and (4) no clear trend was found in the strength of the shocks versus heliocentric distance. These results are interpreted using simple dynamical arguments and are supported by fluid and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations.

Comparative long-term trend analysis of daily weather conditions with daily pollen concentrations in Brussels, Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke

2018-03-01

A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.

Nanoindentation mapping of a wood-adhesive bond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konnerth, J.; Valla, A.; Gindl, W.

2007-08-01

A mapping experiment of a wood phenol-resorcinol-formaldehyde adhesive bond was performed by means of grid nanoindentation. The variability of the modulus of elasticity and the hardness was evaluated for an area of 17 μm by 90 μm. Overall, the modulus of elasticity of the adhesive was clearly lower than the modulus of wood cell walls, whereas the hardness of the adhesive was slightly higher compared to cell walls. A very slight trend of decreasing modulus of elasticity was found with increasing distance from the immediate bond line. However, the trend was superimposed by a high variability of the modulus of elasticity in dependence on the position in the wood cell wall. The unexpectedly high variation of the modulus between 12 and 24 GPa may be explained by the interaction between the helical orientation of the cellulose microfibrils in the S2 layer of the wood cell wall and the geometry of the three-sided Berkovich type indenter pyramid used. Corresponding to the very slight decrease in modulus with increasing distance from the bond line, a similar but clearer trend was found for hardness. Both trends of changing mechanical properties of wood cell walls with varying distance from the bond line are attributed to effects of adhesive penetration into the wood cell wall.

Comparative long-term trend analysis of daily weather conditions with daily pollen concentrations in Brussels, Belgium.

PubMed

Bruffaerts, Nicolas; De Smedt, Tom; Delcloo, Andy; Simons, Koen; Hoebeke, Lucie; Verstraeten, Caroline; Van Nieuwenhuyse, An; Packeu, Ann; Hendrickx, Marijke

2018-03-01

A clear rise in seasonal and annual temperatures, a gradual increase of total radiation, and a relative trend of change in seasonal precipitation have been observed for the last four decades in Brussels (Belgium). These local modifications may have a direct and indirect public health impact by altering the timing and intensity of allergenic pollen seasons. In this study, we assessed the statistical correlations (Spearman's test) between pollen concentration and meteorological conditions by using long-term daily datasets of 11 pollen types (8 trees and 3 herbaceous plants) and 10 meteorological parameters observed in Brussels between 1982 and 2015. Furthermore, we analyzed the rate of change in the annual cycle of the same selected pollen types by the Mann-Kendall test. We revealed an overall trend of increase in daily airborne tree pollen (except for the European beech tree) and an overall trend of decrease in daily airborne pollen from herbaceous plants (except for Urticaceae). These results revealed an earlier onset of the flowering period for birch, oak, ash, plane, grasses, and Urticaceae. Finally, the rates of change in pollen annual cycles were shown to be associated with the rates of change in the annual cycles of several meteorological parameters such as temperature, radiation, humidity, and rainfall.

Financial dimensions of veterinary medical education: an economist's perspective.

PubMed

Lloyd, James W

2013-01-01

Much discussion has transpired in recent years related to the rising cost of veterinary medical education and the increasing debt loads of graduating veterinarians. Underlying these trends are fundamental changes in the funding structure of higher education in general and of academic veterinary medicine specifically. As a result of the ongoing disinvestment by state governments in higher education, both tuition rates and academic programs have experienced a substantial impact across US colleges and schools of veterinary medicine. Programmatically, the effects have spanned the entire range of teaching, research, and service activities. For graduates, both across higher education and in veterinary medicine specifically, the impact has been steadily increasing levels of student debt. Although the situation is clearly worrisome, viable repayment options exist for these escalating debt loads. In combination with recent income and employment trends for veterinarians, these options provide a basis for cautious optimism for the future.

The evolution of interdisciplinarity in physics research.

PubMed

Pan, Raj Kumar; Sinha, Sitabhra; Kaski, Kimmo; Saramäki, Jari

2012-01-01

Science, being a social enterprise, is subject to fragmentation into groups that focus on specialized areas or topics. Often new advances occur through cross-fertilization of ideas between sub-fields that otherwise have little overlap as they study dissimilar phenomena using different techniques. Thus to explore the nature and dynamics of scientific progress one needs to consider the organization and interactions between different subject areas. Here, we study the relationships between the sub-fields of Physics using the Physics and Astronomy Classification Scheme (PACS) codes employed for self-categorization of articles published over the past 25 years (1985-2009). We observe a clear trend towards increasing interactions between the different sub-fields. The network of sub-fields also exhibits core-periphery organization, the nucleus being dominated by Condensed Matter and General Physics. However, over time Interdisciplinary Physics is steadily increasing its share in the network core, reflecting a shift in the overall trend of Physics research.

Investigating the influence of rice crop irrigation on streamflow in the Ibicui river basin using trend analyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paiva, E. M. C. D.; Heatwole, C. H.; Paiva, J. B. D.; Paiva, R. C. D.

2012-04-01

Problems of water shortages and floods are often attributed to the damming of rivers, agriculture, mining, deforestation, forestry, urbanization, and other practices. In the south of Brazil, most river basins experience water deficit problems related to the indiscriminate use of water to irrigate rice. We present a statistical analysis of streamflow data of the Ibicuí Basin, to verify if there are significant trends in water availability related to the withdrawal of water for rice crop irrigation. The Ibicuí basin, located in the southwest of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, has ~50,000 km2 drainage area. It is part of the Uruguai basin, and is characteristic of the Pampa biome. This analysis is based on twelve stream gauge stations with data covering the period of rice cultivation between 1970 and 2011. Records of daily flow data were standardized by subtracting the long-term monthly mean and then dividing by the long-term monthly standard deviation. Then for each month we calculated the flow for 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, 95% and 99% duration. Trends in these series were assessed using Mann Kendall test. The results showed that there are trends of increasing discharge for nine of the twelve analyzed stations, and in six of those nine stations, the increasing trend was statistically significant. Just three stations presented negative trends. The result for six stations that streamflow is increasing is surprising, because historically it has been assumed that there are deficits of water due to major withdrawals for rice irrigation during the growing season of the crop. River discharges are typically low in this withdrawal period of November to February, although precipitation is similar for all months of the year. Also, some studies using physical models have confirmed the impact of irrigation withdrawals on flow. But the decrease in flow due to irrigation withdrawals was not supported with this statistical analysis. However, analyzing the trend values for several time flow durations, it was observed that there was a reduction of the trends with the duration. Only two stations presented increasing trends with duration. Also, it could be verified that in a river with sequential stations, the trends showed that the Mann Kendall Zs decreased with irrigated area. For verifying if it is possible to see the difference with water withdrawals for irrigation of rice, the station that showed the highest increasing trend was chosen for simulating an increasing water withdrawal on up to 5% of the area in 2011. In this analysis, despite the simulated water withdrawals in this basin, the trend of the water flow was still increasing. However, comparing the current situation to one without water withdrawal for irrigation of rice, the increasing trend was lower with the corresponding Mann-Kendall Z value reduced by half. We conclude that for the Ibicuí Basin comparison of trends in the flow data does not clearly reflect the effect of water withdrawals for irrigation of rice.

JPRS Report, East Europe

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-04-17

Mandeva: In Varna the authority of the ASO has realities . Yes, now the ASO is looked at differently. It clearly increased. More moderate party members, but...34 virtually intact preservation of the old structures" and Kalchev, who noted a global trend toward the withering with not having any changes in the...representatives. But responsible to Parliament. in reality he can do so only if he has achieved an [NEPSZABADSAG] What could we do? After all, the appropriate

Converging social trends - emerging outdoor recreation issues

Treesearch

Carl H. Reidel

1980-01-01

I can't recall when I have attended a national conference with a more clearly defined objective than this one. We are here to document outdoor recreation trends and explore their meaning for the future. The word "trend" appears no less than 45 times in the conference brochure, and the symposium organizers are determined that the proceedings will be...

Responses of Roadside Soil Cation Pools to Vehicular Emission Deposition in Southern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, R.; Bain, D. J.; Jenerette, D.; Clarke, L. W.; Wilson, K.

2013-12-01

Roadside soils are heavily loaded with NO3- due to vehicular emissions. This deposition likely acidifies these soils, potentially mobilizing cationic species from soil exchange sites. Acidification driven mobilization is well documented in forest soils, but poorly understood in roadside soils. Metal concentrations in park and garden soils collected from Southern California were examined across gradients of soil chemistry, road network density, climate, and geology to examine cation mobilization effects. In our samples, soil pH is not clearly related to distance from the roadside or underlying geology. However, the depletion of several elements (Al, K) is clearly observed in near-road environments. These depletion trends occur despite contrary trends, including increased soil surface areas and soil organic matter in near-road environments. Additionally, inputs from the weathering of road building materials appear to affect soil chemistry. For example, soil Ca patterns remain relatively consistent relative to roads, suggesting Ca bearing weathering products replenish soil Ca pools in near-road areas. Simple mixing models constructed using elemental ratios are consistent with road material Ca source contributions. Observed near-road patterns in soil chemistry likely influence local ecological function, shifting plant communities and soil functions. Clear understanding of these shifts is essential to the effective use of green infrastructure and other strategies utilized to control road-sourced nutrients. This analytical framework can be applied globally as road networks continue to expand and affect larger ecosystems.

Global diets link environmental sustainability and human health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilman, David; Clark, Michael

2014-11-01

Diets link environmental and human health. Rising incomes and urbanization are driving a global dietary transition in which traditional diets are replaced by diets higher in refined sugars, refined fats, oils and meats. By 2050 these dietary trends, if unchecked, would be a major contributor to an estimated 80 per cent increase in global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions from food production and to global land clearing. Moreover, these dietary shifts are greatly increasing the incidence of type II diabetes, coronary heart disease and other chronic non-communicable diseases that lower global life expectancies. Alternative diets that offer substantial health benefits could, if widely adopted, reduce global agricultural greenhouse gas emissions, reduce land clearing and resultant species extinctions, and help prevent such diet-related chronic non-communicable diseases. The implementation of dietary solutions to the tightly linked diet-environment-health trilemma is a global challenge, and opportunity, of great environmental and public health importance.

Visualization of CDA laboratory reports and long term trends as a possible EHR application for patients and physicians.

PubMed

Obenaus, Manuel; Burgsteiner, Harald

2014-01-01

To increase the patient's acceptance of electronic health records and understanding for their laboratory findings a web application was developed which presents all parameters and possible deviations of standard values in a clear way and visualizes the time based trend of all recorded parameters graphically. Documents corresponding to the Clinical document architecture (CDA) R2 laboratory reports standard and a rapid prototyping framework called Groovy on Grails were used. This work shows, that it is possible to create a useful, standards based tool for patients and physicians with comparatively few resources - an application that could be in similar form a part of an electronic Health Record (EHR) system like the Austrian electronic Health Record (ELGA).

Molecular Subtypes of Breast Cancer: Long-term Incidence Trends and Prognostic Differences.

PubMed

Valla, Marit; Vatten, Lars Johan; Engstrøm, Monica Jernberg; Haugen, Olav Anton; Akslen, Lars Andreas; Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Hagen, Anne Irene; Ytterhus, Borgny; Bofin, Anna Mary; Opdahl, Signe

2016-12-01

Secular trends in incidence and prognosis of molecular breast cancer subtypes are poorly described. We studied long-term trends in a population of Norwegian women born 1886-1977. A total of 52,949 women were followed for breast cancer incidence, and 1,423 tumors were reclassified into molecular subtypes using IHC and in situ hybridization. We compared incidence rates among women born 1886-1928 and 1929-1977, estimated age-specific incidence rate ratios (IRR), and performed multiple imputations to account for unknown subtype. Prognosis was compared for women diagnosed before 1995 and in 1995 or later, estimating cumulative risk of death and HRs. Between 50 and 69 years of age, incidence rates of Luminal A and Luminal B (HER2 - ) were higher among women born in 1929 or later, compared with before 1929 [IRRs 50-54 years; after imputations: 3.5; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8-6.9 and 2.5; 95% CI, 1.2-5.2, respectively], with no clear differences for other subtypes. Rates of death were lower in women diagnosed in 1995 or later, compared to before 1995, for Luminal A (HR 0.4; 95% CI, 0.3-0.5), Luminal B (HER2 - ; HR 0.5; 95% CI, 0.3-0.7), and Basal phenotype (HR 0.4; 95% CI, 0.2-0.9). We found a strong secular incidence increase restricted to Luminal A and Luminal B (HER2 - ) subtypes, combined with a markedly improved prognosis for these subtypes and for the Basal phenotype. This study documents a clear secular increase in incidence and a concomitant improved prognosis for specific molecular breast cancer subtypes. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(12); 1625-34. ©2016 AACR. ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

Time Trend Analysis of Oral Cancer in Iran from 2005 to 2010.

PubMed

Iranfar, Khosro; Mokhayeri, Yaser; Mohammadi, Gohar

2016-01-01

There is a considerable lack of understanding of oral cancer incidence, especially its time trend in Iran. In this study, the authors aimed to analyze time trend of oral cancer incidence with a focus on differences by gender in a period of six years - from 2005 to 2010. Both population-based cancer registry and national cancer registry (NCR) data based on pathologic reports from 2005 to 2010 were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME). Population data were also received from Statistical Centre of Iran. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) based on the World Standard Population were then calculated. Finally, Negative Binomial regression was run for time trend analysis. The maximum ASR for males was calculated as 2.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2008 and the minimum was observed as 1.9 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Meanwhile, the maximum ASR for females was estimated as 1.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2009 and the minimum was calculated as 1.6 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Additionally, in females, incidence risk ratio (IRR) did not show a clear decreasing or increasing trend during the six years. Nevertheless, in males an increasing trend was observed. The maximum IRR adjusted for age group and province, for females was reported in 2009 (IRR=1.05 95% CI: 0.90-1.23), and for males was estimated in 2010 (IRR=1/2 95% CI: 1.04 - 1.38). Our findings highlight disparities between oral cancer incidence trends in males and females over the six years from 2005 to 2010.

Investigating International Time Trends in the Incidence and Prevalence of Atopic Eczema 1990–2010: A Systematic Review of Epidemiological Studies

PubMed Central

Deckers, Ivette A. G.; McLean, Susannah; Linssen, Sanne; Mommers, Monique; van Schayck, C. P.; Sheikh, Aziz

2012-01-01

The prevalence of atopic eczema has been found to have increased greatly in some parts of the world. Building on a systematic review of global disease trends in asthma, our objective was to study trends in incidence and prevalence of atopic eczema. Disease trends are important for health service planning and for generating hypotheses regarding the aetiology of chronic disorders. We conducted a systematic search for high quality reports of cohort, repeated cross-sectional and routine healthcare database-based studies in seven electronic databases. Studies were required to report on at least two measures of the incidence and/or prevalence of atopic eczema between 1990 and 2010 and needed to use comparable methods at all assessment points. We retrieved 2,464 citations, from which we included 69 reports. Assessing global trends was complicated by the use of a range of outcome measures across studies and possible changes in diagnostic criteria over time. Notwithstanding these difficulties, there was evidence suggesting that the prevalence of atopic eczema was increasing in Africa, eastern Asia, western Europe and parts of northern Europe (i.e. the UK). No clear trends were identified in other regions. There was inadequate study coverage worldwide, particularly for repeated measures of atopic eczema incidence. Further epidemiological work is needed to investigate trends in what is now one of the most common long-term disorders globally. A range of relevant measures of incidence and prevalence, careful use of definitions and description of diagnostic criteria, improved study design, more comprehensive reporting and appropriate interpretation of these data are all essential to ensure that this important field of epidemiological enquiry progresses in a scientifically robust manner. PMID:22808063

Climate Trends and Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change in Zambia.

PubMed

Mulenga, Brian P; Wineman, Ayala; Sitko, Nicholas J

2017-02-01

A number of studies use meteorological records to analyze climate trends and assess the impact of climate change on agricultural yields. While these provide quantitative evidence on climate trends and the likely effects thereof, they incorporate limited qualitative analysis of farmers' perceptions of climate change and/or variability. The present study builds on the quantitative methods used elsewhere to analyze climate trends, and in addition compares local narratives of climate change with evidence found in meteorological records in Zambia. Farmers offer remarkably consistent reports of a rainy season that is growing shorter and less predictable. For some climate parameters-notably, rising average temperature-there is a clear overlap between farmers' observations and patterns found in the meteorological records. However, the data do not support the perception that the rainy season used to begin earlier, and we generally do not detect a reported increase in the frequency of dry spells. Several explanations for these discrepancies are offered. Further, we provide policy recommendations to help farmers adapt to climate change/variability, as well as suggestions to shape future climate change policies, programs, and research in developing countries.

Assessment of long-term WRF–CMAQ simulations for understanding direct aerosol effects on radiation "brightening" in the United States

DOE PAGES

Gan, C.-M.; Pleim, J.; Mathur, R.; ...

2015-11-03

Long-term simulations with the coupled WRF–CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting–Community Multi-scale Air Quality) model have been conducted to systematically investigate the changes in anthropogenic emissions of SO 2 and NO x over the past 16 years (1995–2010) across the United States (US), their impacts on anthropogenic aerosol loading over North America, and subsequent impacts on regional radiation budgets. In particular, this study attempts to determine the consequences of the changes in tropospheric aerosol burden arising from substantial reductions in emissions of SO 2 and NO x associated with control measures under the Clean Air Act (CAA) especially on trends inmore » solar radiation. Extensive analyses conducted by Gan et al. (2014a) utilizing observations (e.g., SURFRAD, CASTNET, IMPROVE, and ARM) over the past 16 years (1995–2010) indicate a shortwave (SW) radiation (both all-sky and clear-sky) "brightening" in the US. The relationship of the radiation brightening trend with decreases in the aerosol burden is less apparent in the western US. One of the main reasons for this is that the emission controls under the CAA were aimed primarily at reducing pollutants in areas violating national air quality standards, most of which were located in the eastern US, while the relatively less populated areas in the western US were less polluted at the beginning of this study period. Comparisons of model results with observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol concentration, and radiation demonstrate that the coupled WRF–CMAQ model is capable of replicating the trends well even though it tends to underestimate the AOD. In particular, the sulfate concentration predictions were well matched with the observations. The discrepancies found in the clear-sky diffuse SW radiation are likely due to several factors such as the potential increase of ice particles associated with increasing air traffic, the definition of "clear-sky" in the radiation retrieval methodology, and aerosol semi-direct and/or indirect effects which cannot be readily isolated from the observed data.« less

Assessment of multi-decadal WRF-CMAQ simulations for understanding direct aerosol effects on radiation "brightening" in the United States

DOE PAGES

Gan, C.-M.; Pleim, J.; Mathur, R.; ...

2015-07-01

Multi-decadal simulations with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model have been conducted to systematically investigate the changes in anthropogenic emissions of SO 2 and NO x over the past 21 years (1990–2010) across the United States (US), their impacts on anthropogenic aerosol loading over North America, and subsequent impacts on regional radiation budgets. In particular, this study attempts to determine the consequences of the changes in tropospheric aerosol burden arising from substantial reductions in emissions of SO 2 and NO x associated with control measures under the Clean Air Act (CAA) especially on trends in solar radiation. Extensive analyses conducted by Ganmore » et al. (2014) utilizing observations (e.g. SURFRAD, CASTNET, IMPROVE and ARM) over the past 16 years (1995–2010) indicate a shortwave (SW) radiation (both all-sky and clear-sky) "brightening" in the US. The relationship of the radiation brightening trend with decreases in the aerosol burden is less apparent in the western US. One of the main reasons for this is that the emission controls under the CAA were aimed primarily at reducing pollutants in areas violating national air quality standards, most of which were located in the eastern US while the relatively less populated areas in the western US were less polluted at the beginning of this study period. Comparisons of model results with observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol concentration, and radiation demonstrate that the coupled WRF-CMAQ model is capable of replicating the trends well even through it tends to underestimate the AOD. In particular, the sulfate concentration predictions were well matched with the observations. The discrenpancies found in the clear-sky diffuse SW radiation are likely due to several factors such as potential increase of ice particles associated with increasing air traffic, the definition of "clear-sky" in the radiation retrieval methodology and aerosol semi-direct and/or indirect effects which cannot be readily isolated from the observed data.« less

Assessment of multi-decadal WRF-CMAQ simulations for understanding direct aerosol effects on radiation "brightening" in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gan, C.-M.; Pleim, J.; Mathur, R.

Multi-decadal simulations with the coupled WRF-CMAQ model have been conducted to systematically investigate the changes in anthropogenic emissions of SO 2 and NO x over the past 21 years (1990–2010) across the United States (US), their impacts on anthropogenic aerosol loading over North America, and subsequent impacts on regional radiation budgets. In particular, this study attempts to determine the consequences of the changes in tropospheric aerosol burden arising from substantial reductions in emissions of SO 2 and NO x associated with control measures under the Clean Air Act (CAA) especially on trends in solar radiation. Extensive analyses conducted by Ganmore » et al. (2014) utilizing observations (e.g. SURFRAD, CASTNET, IMPROVE and ARM) over the past 16 years (1995–2010) indicate a shortwave (SW) radiation (both all-sky and clear-sky) "brightening" in the US. The relationship of the radiation brightening trend with decreases in the aerosol burden is less apparent in the western US. One of the main reasons for this is that the emission controls under the CAA were aimed primarily at reducing pollutants in areas violating national air quality standards, most of which were located in the eastern US while the relatively less populated areas in the western US were less polluted at the beginning of this study period. Comparisons of model results with observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol concentration, and radiation demonstrate that the coupled WRF-CMAQ model is capable of replicating the trends well even through it tends to underestimate the AOD. In particular, the sulfate concentration predictions were well matched with the observations. The discrenpancies found in the clear-sky diffuse SW radiation are likely due to several factors such as potential increase of ice particles associated with increasing air traffic, the definition of "clear-sky" in the radiation retrieval methodology and aerosol semi-direct and/or indirect effects which cannot be readily isolated from the observed data.« less

Assessment of long-term WRF–CMAQ simulations for understanding direct aerosol effects on radiation "brightening" in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gan, C.-M.; Pleim, J.; Mathur, R.

Long-term simulations with the coupled WRF–CMAQ (Weather Research and Forecasting–Community Multi-scale Air Quality) model have been conducted to systematically investigate the changes in anthropogenic emissions of SO 2 and NO x over the past 16 years (1995–2010) across the United States (US), their impacts on anthropogenic aerosol loading over North America, and subsequent impacts on regional radiation budgets. In particular, this study attempts to determine the consequences of the changes in tropospheric aerosol burden arising from substantial reductions in emissions of SO 2 and NO x associated with control measures under the Clean Air Act (CAA) especially on trends inmore » solar radiation. Extensive analyses conducted by Gan et al. (2014a) utilizing observations (e.g., SURFRAD, CASTNET, IMPROVE, and ARM) over the past 16 years (1995–2010) indicate a shortwave (SW) radiation (both all-sky and clear-sky) "brightening" in the US. The relationship of the radiation brightening trend with decreases in the aerosol burden is less apparent in the western US. One of the main reasons for this is that the emission controls under the CAA were aimed primarily at reducing pollutants in areas violating national air quality standards, most of which were located in the eastern US, while the relatively less populated areas in the western US were less polluted at the beginning of this study period. Comparisons of model results with observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD), aerosol concentration, and radiation demonstrate that the coupled WRF–CMAQ model is capable of replicating the trends well even though it tends to underestimate the AOD. In particular, the sulfate concentration predictions were well matched with the observations. The discrepancies found in the clear-sky diffuse SW radiation are likely due to several factors such as the potential increase of ice particles associated with increasing air traffic, the definition of "clear-sky" in the radiation retrieval methodology, and aerosol semi-direct and/or indirect effects which cannot be readily isolated from the observed data.« less

Trends In Susceptibility To Single-Event Upset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nichols, Donald K.; Price, William E.; Kolasinski, Wojciech A.; Koga, Rukotaro; Waskiewicz, Alvin E.; Pickel, James C.; Blandford, James T.

1989-01-01

Report provides nearly comprehensive body of data on single-event upsets due to irradiation by heavy ions. Combines new test data and previously published data from governmental and industrial laboratories. Clear trends emerge from data useful in predicting future performances of devices.

Microporous polyethylene separators — today and tomorrow. Separator development trends for modern automotive batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böhnstedt, Werner

During the past decade, the design of modern automotive batteries has undergone a fundamental change. The introduction of microporous polyethylene pocket separators has resulted in an approximately 8% better volume utilization. Besides increasing the energy density, the polyethylene envelope has enalbed an improvement in cold-cranking performance and has raised the production efficiency. A first failure-mode analysis of pocket-separated automotive batteries in Europe with respect to leaf separation is presented. For comparable service life, a shift in failure mode has been found. Although corrosion of the positive electrode still dominates, a significant increase in positive active-material shedding is noted. This is certainly a consequence of the general trend towards lower antimony contents. Shorting through the separator is only found in cases of severe battery mistreatment. This positive, intermediary result is supplemented by an outlook on emerging development trends. Future automotive batteries will experience elevated operating temperatures, higher cycling loads, and maintenance freedom. Battery tests at temperatures up to 75 °C with various alloy combinations show that the hybrid design is best suited to meet the expected requirements. Microporous polyethylene pocket separation is not expected to be a limiting factor; the trend to lower antimony alloy content and increased cycling load will demonstrate the advantage of this separation even more clearly than in the past. Optimization of the already achieved, balanced separator characteristics profile with the reference parameters of electrical performance, water loss, durability and machinability will stimulate further development work.

Rainfall trends in the South Asian summer monsoon and its related large-scale dynamics with focus over Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latif, M.; Syed, F. S.; Hannachi, A.

2017-06-01

The study of regional rainfall trends over South Asia is critically important for food security and economy, as both these factors largely depend on the availability of water. In this study, South Asian summer monsoon rainfall trends on seasonal and monthly (June-September) time scales have been investigated using three observational data sets. Our analysis identify a dipole-type structure in rainfall trends over the region north of the Indo-Pak subcontinent, with significant increasing trends over the core monsoon region of Pakistan and significant decreasing trends over the central-north India and adjacent areas. The dipole is also evident in monthly rainfall trend analyses, which is more prominent in July and August. We show, in particular, that the strengthening of northward moisture transport over the Arabian Sea is a likely reason for the significant positive trend of rainfall in the core monsoon region of Pakistan. In contrast, over the central-north India region, the rainfall trends are significantly decreasing due to the weakening of northward moisture transport over the Bay of Bengal. The leading empirical orthogonal functions clearly show the strengthening (weakening) patterns of vertically integrated moisture transport over the Arabian Sea (Bay of Bengal) in seasonal and monthly interannual time scales. The regression analysis between the principal components and rainfall confirm the dipole pattern over the region. Our results also suggest that the extra-tropical phenomena could influence the mean monsoon rainfall trends over Pakistan by enhancing the cross-equatorial flow of moisture into the Arabian Sea.

Contribution of Increasing Glacial Freshwater Fluxes to Observed Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Sommer, J.; Merino, N.; Durand, G.; Jourdain, N.; Goosse, H.; Mathiot, P.; Gurvan, M.

2016-02-01

Southern Ocean sea-ice extent has experienced an overall positive trend over recent decades. While the amplitude of this trend is open to debate, the geographical pattern of regional changes has been clearly identified by observations. Mechanisms driving changes in the Antarctic Sea Ice Extent (SIE) are not fully understood and climate models fail to simulate these trends. Changes in different atmospheric features such as SAM or ENSO seem to explain the observed trend of Antartic sea ice, but only partly, since they can not account for the actual amplitude of the observed signal. The increasing injection of freshwater due to the accelerating ice discharge from Antarctica Ice Sheet (AIS) during the last two decades has been proposed as another candidate to contribute to SIE trend. However, the quantity and the distribution of the extra freshwater injection were not properly constrained. Recent glaciological estimations may improve the way the glacial freshwater is injected in the model. Here, we study the role of the glacial freshwater into the observed SIE trend, using the state-of-the-art Antarctic mass loss estimations. Ocean/sea-ice model simulations have been carried out with two different Antarctic freshwater scenarios corresponding to 20-years of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution. The combination of an improved iceberg model with the most recent glaciological estimations has been applied to account for the most realistic possible Antarctic freshwater evolution scenarios. Results suggest that Antarctica has contributed to almost a 30% of the observed trend in regions of the South Pacific and South East Indian sectors, but has little impact in the South Atlantic sector. We conclude that the observed SIE trend over the last decades is due to a combination of both an atmospheric forcing and the extra freshwater injection. Our results advocates that the evolution of glacial freshwater needs to be correctly represented in climate models.

Normal and abnormal evolution of argon metastable density in high-density plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seo, B. H.; Kim, J. H., E-mail: jhkim86@kriss.re.kr; You, S. J., E-mail: sjyou@cnu.ac.kr

2015-05-15

A controversial problem on the evolution of Ar metastable density as a function of electron density (increasing trend versus decreasing trend) was resolved by discovering the anomalous evolution of the argon metastable density with increasing electron density (discharge power), including both trends of the metastable density [Daltrini et al., Appl. Phys. Lett. 92, 061504 (2008)]. Later, by virtue of an adequate physical explanation based on a simple global model, both evolutions of the metastable density were comprehensively understood as part of the abnormal evolution occurring at low- and high-density regimes, respectively, and thus the physics behind the metastable evolution hasmore » seemed to be clearly disclosed. In this study, however, a remarkable result for the metastable density behavior with increasing electron density was observed: even in the same electron density regime, there are both normal and abnormal evolutions of metastable-state density with electron density depending on the measurement position: The metastable density increases with increasing electron density at a position far from the inductively coupled plasma antenna but decreases at a position close to the antenna. The effect of electron temperature, which is spatially nonuniform in the plasma, on the electron population and depopulation processes of Argon metastable atoms with increasing electron density is a clue to understanding the results. The calculated results of the global model, including multistep ionization for the argon metastable state and measured electron temperature, are in a good agreement with the experimental results.« less

Ostracod body size trends do not follow either Bergmann's rule or Cope's rule during periods of constant temperature increase

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Y.; Seshadri, P.; Amin, V.; Heim, N. A.; Payne, J.

2013-12-01

Over time, organisms have adapted to changing environments by evolving to be larger or smaller. Scientists have described body-size trends using two generalized theories. Bergmann's rule states that body size is inversely related to temperature, and Cope's rule establishes an increase over time. Cope's rule has been hypothesized as a temporal manifestation of Bergmann's rule, as the temperature of the Earth has consistently decreased over time and mean body size has increased. However, during times of constant temperature increase, Bergmann's rule and Cope's rule predict opposite effects on body size. Our goal was to clarify this relationship using both accessible proxies of historic temperature - atmospheric CO2 levels and paleo-latitude. We measured ostracod lengths throughout the Paleozoic and Mesozoic eras (using the Catalogue of Ostracoda) and utilized ostracod latitudinal information from the Paleobiology Database. By closely studying body-size trends during four time periods of constant CO2 increase across spectrums of time and latitude, we were able to compare the effects of Cope's and Bergmann's rule. The correlation, p-values, and slopes of each of our graphs showed that there is no clear relationship between body size and each of these rules in times of temperature increase, both latitudinally and temporally. Therefore, both Cope's and Bergmann's rule act on marine ostracods and no rule is dominant, though our results more strongly disprove the latitudinal variation in ostracod size.

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years.

PubMed

Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang; Cheng, Lei; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Yue; Liu, Ronggao; Mao, Jiafu; Myneni, Ranga B; Peng, Shushi; Poulter, Ben; Shi, Xiaoying; Xiao, Zhiqiang; Zeng, Ning; Zeng, ZhenZhong; Wang, Yingping

2015-04-01

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. We use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41% of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAIGS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070 yr(-1), ranging from 0.0035 yr(-1) to 0.0127 yr(-1)), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAIGS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAIGS (P < 0.05), and marginally significantly (P = 0.07) correlated with the residual of LAIGS trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. This result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Possible causes of Arctic Tundra Vegetation Productivity Declines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhatt, U. S.; Walker, D. A.; Raynolds, M. K.; Bieniek, P.; Epstein, H. E.; Comiso, J. C.; Pinzon, J. E.; Tucker, C. J.

2017-12-01

Three decades of remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data document an overall increase in Arctic tundra vegetation greenness but the trends display considerable spatial variability. Pan-Arctic tundra vegetation greening is associated with increases in summer warmth that are, in large-part, driven by summer sea-ice retreat along Arctic coasts. Trends covering the period 1982-2016 are overall positive for summer open water, Summer Warmth Index (SWI, the sum of the degree months above zero from May-August), MaxNDVI (peak NDVI) and time integrated NDVI (TI-NDVI, sum of biweekly NDVI above 0.05 from May-September). Upon closer examination, it is clear that not all regions have positive trends, for example, there is an area of cooling in western Eurasia, which is broadly co-located with maxNDVI and TI-NDVI declines. While sea ice decline has continued over the satellite record, summer landsurface temperatures and vegetation productivity measures have not simply increased. Regional differences between warming and greening trends suggest that it is likely that multiple processes influence vegetation productivity beyond secular greening with increased summer warmth. This paper will present Pan-Arctic and regional analyses of the NDVI data in the context of climate drivers. Other possible drivers of vegetation productivity decline will be discussed such as increased standing water, delayed spring snow-melt, and winter thaw events. The status and limitations of data sets and modeling needed to advance our understanding of tundra vegetation productivity will be summarized and will serve as a starting point for planning the next steps in this topic. Methodical multi-disciplinary synthesis research that jointly considers vegetation type, permafrost conditions, altitude, as well as climate factors such as temperature, heat and moisture transport, and timing of snowfall and spring snowmelt is needed to better understand recent tundra vegetation productivity declines.

Biomarker-based reconstruction of late Holocene sea-ice variability: East versus West Greenland continental shelf.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolling, H. M.; Stein, R. H.; Fahl, K.

2016-12-01

Sea is a critical component of the climate system and its role is not yet fully understood e.g. the recent rapid decrease in sea ice is not clearly reflected in climate models. This illustrates the need for high-resolution proxy-based sea-ice reconstructions going beyond the time scale of direct measurements in order to understand the processes controlling present and past natural variability of sea ice on short time scales. Here we present the first comparison of two high-resolution biomarker records from the East and West Greenland Shelf for the late Holocene. Both areas are highly sensitive to sea-ice changes as they are influenced by the East Greenland Current, the main exporter of Arctic freshwater and sea ice. On the East Greenland Shelf, we do not find any clear evidence for a long-term increase of sea ice during the late Holocene Neoglacial. This sea-ice record seems to be more sensitive to short-term climate events, such as the Roman Warm Period, the Dark Ages, the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age. In contrary, the West Greenland Shelf record shows a strong and gradual increase in sea ice concentration and a reduction in marine productivity markers starting near 1.6 ka. In general, the increase in sea ice seems to follow the decreasing solar insolation trend. Short-term events are not as clearly pronounced as on the East Greenland Shelf. A comparison to recently published foraminiferal records from the same cores (Perner et al., 2011, 2015) illuminates the differences of biomarker and micropaleontoligical proxies. It seems that the general trend is reflected in both proxies but the signal of small-scale events is preserved rather differently, pointing towards different environmental requirements of the species behind both proxies. References: Perner, K., et al., 2011. Quat. Sci. Revs. 30, 2815-2826 Perner, K., et al., 2015. Quat. Sci. Revs. 129, 296-307

The effect of length and starting year on trend analyses of temperatures in Spanish mainland (1951-2010). Seasonal analyses: Autumn (V)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salinas Solé, Celia; Peña Angulo, Dhais; Gonzalez HIgaldo, Jose Carlos; Brunetti, MIchele

2017-04-01

In this poster we applied the moving window approach (see Poster I of this collection) to analyze trends of autumn and its corresponding months (September, October, November) temperature mean values of maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) in Spanish mainland to detect the effects of length period and starting year. Monthly series belong to Monthly Temperature dataset of Spanish mainland (MOTEDAS). Database contains in its grid format of 5236 pixels of monthly series (10x10 km). The threshold used in spatial analyses considers 20% of land under significant trend (p<0.05). The most striking results are as follow: • Seasonal trend analyses of Autumn Tmax show no significance at any temporal Windows. Trends of Tmin are significant in more than 20% of land until 1974-2010. The area affected in Tmin progressively increase from SE to NW. • Monthly trend analyses not detect any significance in Tmax, while in Tmin, particularly in October, an extended area is detected in temporal windows in between 1951-2010 to 1978-2010, but clearly concentrated in the starting years of initial 70´s. Spatial pattern of areas affected significantly seems to be from SE to NW for October, and South-North in September. To conclude autumn trend analyses of Tmax and Tmin in Spanish mainland only detect significant trend in Tmin, mostly located in the 70´s and extending from SE to central areas of study area.

Suggestions for getting more forestry in the logging plan.

Treesearch

Robert H. Ruth; Roy R. Silen

1950-01-01

The staggered-setting system of clear-cutting is fast becoming prevailing practice in the Douglas-fir region. The trend is away from large, continuous clear cuts to clear-cutting smaller units of timber of less than 80 acres. These are called staggered settings because the surrounding stand is left uncut to provide seed and serve as a firebreak. Major aims of this...

Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

PubMed

Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

2017-01-01

European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

Levels and trends in cigarette contraband in Canada.

PubMed

Guindon, G Emmanuel; Burkhalter, Robin; Brown, K Stephen

2016-09-01

There is overwhelming evidence that increases in tobacco taxes reduce tobacco use, save lives and increase government tax revenue. High taxes, however, create an incentive to devise ways to avoid or evade tobacco taxes through contraband tobacco. The associated consequences are significant and call for an accurate measurement of contraband's magnitude. However, its illegal nature makes the levels and trends in contraband intrinsically difficult to measure accurately. To examine levels and trends in cigarette contraband in Canada. We employed 2 approaches: first, we contrasted estimates of tax-paid cigarettes sales with consumption estimates based on survey data; second, we used data from several individual-level surveys that examined smokers' purchasing and use behaviours. We placed a particular emphasis on the provinces of Québec and Ontario because existing research suggests that cigarette contraband levels are far higher than in any other province. The estimates presented show a clear upward trend from the early 2000s in cigarette contraband in Québec and Ontario followed by, on the whole, a decreasing trend from about 2007 to 2009. None of the data presented provide support to the narrative that cigarette contraband has been increasing in recent years. Of note are Québec estimates which suggest relatively low levels of cigarette contraband since 2010, at levels no higher than in the early 2000s. The data presented suggest that policies to tackle cigarette contraband introduced from the mid-2000s to late 2000s, at both federal and provincial levels, may have dampened the demand for contraband cigarettes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Variability analysis of the reconstructed daily global solar radiation under all-sky and cloud-free conditions in Madrid during the period 1887-1950

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antón, M.; Román, R.; Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.; Calbó, J.; Vaquero, J. M.

2017-07-01

This study focuses on the analysis of the daily global solar radiation (GSR) reconstructed from sunshine duration measurements at Madrid (Spain) from 1887 to 1950. Additionally, cloud cover information recorded simultaneously by human observations for the study period was also analyzed and used to select cloud-free days. First, the day-to-day variability of reconstructed GSR data was evaluated, finding a strong relationship between GSR and cloudiness. The second step was to analyze the long-term evolution of the GSR data which exhibited two clear trends with opposite sign: a marked negative trend of - 36 kJ/m2 per year for 1887-1915 period and a moderate positive trend of + 13 kJ/m2 per year for 1916-1950 period, both statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. Therefore, there is evidence of "early dimming" and "early brightening" periods in the reconstructed GSR data for all-sky conditions in Madrid from the late 19th to the mid-20th centuries. Unlike the long-term evolution of GSR data, cloud cover showed non-statistically significant trends for the two analyzed sub-periods, 1887-1915 and 1916-1950. Finally, GSR trends were analyzed exclusively under cloud-free conditions in summer by means of the determination of the clearness index for those days with all cloud cover observations equal to zero oktas. The long-term evolution of the clearness index was in accordance with the "early dimming" and "early brightening" periods, showing smaller trends but still statistically significant. This result points out that aerosol load variability could have had a non-negligible influence on the long-term evolution of GSR even as far as from the late 19th century.

Diffuse pollution of soil and water: Long term trends at large scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grathwohl, P.

2012-04-01

Industrialization and urbanization, which consequently increased pressure on the environment to cause degradation of soil and water quality over more than a century, is still ongoing. The number of potential environmental contaminants detected in surface and groundwater is continuously increasing; from classical industrial and agricultural chemicals, to flame retardants, pharmaceuticals, and personal care products. While point sources of pollution can be managed in principle, diffuse pollution is only reversible at very long time scales if at all. Compounds which were phased out many decades ago such as PCBs or DDT are still abundant in soils, sediments and biota. How diffuse pollution is processed at large scales in space (e.g. catchments) and time (centuries) is unknown. The relevance to the field of processes well investigated at the laboratory scale (e.g. sorption/desorption and (bio)degradation kinetics) is not clear. Transport of compounds is often coupled to the water cycle and in order to assess trends in diffuse pollution, detailed knowledge about the hydrology and the solute fluxes at the catchment scale is required (e.g. input/output fluxes, transformation rates at the field scale). This is also a prerequisite in assessing management options for reversal of adverse trends.

Climate change and the global pattern of moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Stephan; Kargel, Jeffrey S.; Huggel, Christian; Reynolds, John; Shugar, Dan H.; Betts, Richard A.; Emmer, Adam; Glasser, Neil; Haritashya, Umesh K.; Klimeš, Jan; Reinhardt, Liam; Schaub, Yvonne; Wiltshire, Andy; Regmi, Dhananjay; Vilímek, Vít

2018-04-01

Despite recent research identifying a clear anthropogenic impact on glacier recession, the effect of recent climate change on glacier-related hazards is at present unclear. Here we present the first global spatio-temporal assessment of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) focusing explicitly on lake drainage following moraine dam failure. These floods occur as mountain glaciers recede and downwaste. GLOFs can have an enormous impact on downstream communities and infrastructure. Our assessment of GLOFs associated with the rapid drainage of moraine-dammed lakes provides insights into the historical trends of GLOFs and their distributions under current and future global climate change. We observe a clear global increase in GLOF frequency and their regularity around 1930, which likely represents a lagged response to post-Little Ice Age warming. Notably, we also show that GLOF frequency and regularity - rather unexpectedly - have declined in recent decades even during a time of rapid glacier recession. Although previous studies have suggested that GLOFs will increase in response to climate warming and glacier recession, our global results demonstrate that this has not yet clearly happened. From an assessment of the timing of climate forcing, lag times in glacier recession, lake formation and moraine-dam failure, we predict increased GLOF frequencies during the next decades and into the 22nd century.

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajaaj, Aws A.; Mishra, Ashok K.; Khan, Abdul A.

2018-04-01

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

Global resources outlook. [Requires best leadership of U. S. and other countries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bovay, H.E. Jr.

Worldwide resource planning that is rational and equitable will dictate an orderly flow of materials between nations and require the best leadership the U.S. and other nations can develop. Resource trends show that the developing nations have begun asserting their power as suppliers of essential resources and that proliferation of nuclear materials could lead to wars of redistribution as competition for basic commodities intensifies. The trend in recent years has been toward the interdependence of nations, with most having some resources and depending on other nations for the rest of their needs. Since consumption trends for minerals, metals, and energymore » parallel the gross national product, developing countries will be increasing their consumption levels to raise their standard of living. Population projections indicate the lowest growth in the developed countries and a steep increase in the Third World, where living standards must be raised before effective birth control can take hold. Food production in developing countries has kept pace with population growth, but only the developed countries are able to develop a surplus. South America and Africa both contain large areas of land that is arable if the technology for clearing and cultivating is available. Other trends are outlined to show the need for new management of fishing, the use and dependency of minerals and fuels, metals, and the environment and technology as resources. (DCK)« less

Historical trends of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in dated sediments from semi-enclosed bays of Korea.

PubMed

Shen, Aihua; Lee, Sunggyu; Ra, Kongtae; Suk, Dongwoo; Moon, Hyo-Bang

2018-03-01

Information is scarce on historical trends of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in the coastal environment. In this study, four sediment cores were collected from semi-enclosed bays of Korea to investigate the pollution history, contamination profiles, and environmental burden of PFASs. The total PFAS concentrations in sediment cores ranged from 6.61 to 821 pg/g dry weight. The highest concentrations of PFASs were found in surface or sub-surface sediments, indicating on-going contamination by PFASs. Historical trends in PFASs showed a clear increase since the 1980s, which was consistent with the global PFAS consumption pattern. Concentrations of PFASs were dependent on the organic carbon content in sediment cores. PFOS and longer-chain PFASs were predominant in all of the sediment cores. In particular, a large proportion of longer-chain PFASs was observed in the upper layers of the sediment cores from industrialized coastal regions. Inventories and fluxes estimated for PFASs were similar to those for PCDD/Fs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tailoring the Nanoporous Architecture of Hydrogels to Exploit Entropic Trapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Nan; Ugaz, Victor M.

2010-09-01

Macromolecules embedded in a nanoporous matrix display anomalous transport behavior in the entropic trapping regime. But these phenomena have not been widely explored in hydrogel matrices because it has not been clear how to link them to the underlying heterogeneous nanopore morphology. Here we introduce a theoretical model that establishes this connection and describe microchip DNA electrophoresis experiments that demonstrate how entropic trapping effects can be exploited to yield a trend of increasing resolving power with DNA size (the opposite of what is conventionally observed).

A Temporal Association between Accumulated Petrol (Gasoline) Lead Emissions and Motor Neuron Disease in Australia.

PubMed

Laidlaw, Mark A S; Rowe, Dominic B; Ball, Andrew S; Mielke, Howard W

2015-12-19

The age standardised death rate from motor neuron disease (MND) has increased from 1.29 to 2.74 per 100,000, an increase of 112.4% between 1959 and 2013. It is clear that genetics could not have played a causal role in the increased rate of MND deaths over such a short time span. We postulate that environmental factors are responsible for this rate increase. We focus on lead additives in Australian petrol as a possible contributing environmental factor. The associations between historical petrol lead emissions and MND death trends in Australia between 1962 and 2013 were examined using linear regressions. Regression results indicate best fit correlations between a 20 year lag of petrol lead emissions and age-standardised female death rate (R² = 0.86, p = 4.88 × 10(-23)), male age standardised death rate (R² = 0.86, p = 9.4 × 10(-23)) and percent all cause death attributed to MND (R² = 0.98, p = 2.6 × 10(-44)). Legacy petrol lead emissions are associated with increased MND death trends in Australia. Further examination of the 20 year lag between exposure to petrol lead and the onset of MND is warranted.

Will Passive Protection Save Congo Forests?

PubMed

Galford, Gillian L; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S; Sonter, Laura J; Laporte, Nadine

2015-01-01

Central Africa's tropical forests are among the world's largest carbon reserves. Historically, they have experienced low rates of deforestation. Pressures to clear land are increasing due to development of infrastructure and livelihoods, foreign investment in agriculture, and shifting land use management, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The DRC contains the greatest area of intact African forests. These store approximately 22 billion tons of carbon in aboveground live biomass, yet only 10% are protected. Can the status quo of passive protection - forest management that is low or nonexistent - ensure the preservation of this forest and its carbon? We have developed the SimCongo model to simulate changes in land cover and land use based on theorized policy scenarios from 2010 to 2050. Three scenarios were examined: the first (Historical Trends) assumes passive forest protection; the next (Conservation) posits active protection of forests and activation of the national REDD+ action plan, and the last (Agricultural Development) assumes increased agricultural activities in forested land with concomitant increased deforestation. SimCongo is a cellular automata model based on Bayesian statistical methods tailored for the DRC, built with the Dinamica-EGO platform. The model is parameterized and validated with deforestation observations from the past and runs the scenarios from 2010 through 2050 with a yearly time step. We estimate the Historical Trends trajectory will result in average emissions of 139 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s, a 15% increase over current emissions. The Conservation scenario would result in 58% less clearing than Historical Trends and would conserve carbon-dense forest and woodland savanna areas. The Agricultural Development scenario leads to emissions of 212 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s. These scenarios are heuristic examples of policy's influence on forest conservation and carbon storage. Our results suggest that 1) passive protection of the DRC's forest and woodland savanna is insufficient to reduce deforestation; and 2): enactment of a REDD+ plan or similar conservation measure is needed to actively protect Congo forests, their unique ecology, and their important role in the global carbon cycle.

Will Passive Protection Save Congo Forests?

PubMed Central

Galford, Gillian L.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.; Sonter, Laura J.; Laporte, Nadine

2015-01-01

Central Africa’s tropical forests are among the world’s largest carbon reserves. Historically, they have experienced low rates of deforestation. Pressures to clear land are increasing due to development of infrastructure and livelihoods, foreign investment in agriculture, and shifting land use management, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The DRC contains the greatest area of intact African forests. These store approximately 22 billion tons of carbon in aboveground live biomass, yet only 10% are protected. Can the status quo of passive protection — forest management that is low or nonexistent — ensure the preservation of this forest and its carbon? We have developed the SimCongo model to simulate changes in land cover and land use based on theorized policy scenarios from 2010 to 2050. Three scenarios were examined: the first (Historical Trends) assumes passive forest protection; the next (Conservation) posits active protection of forests and activation of the national REDD+ action plan, and the last (Agricultural Development) assumes increased agricultural activities in forested land with concomitant increased deforestation. SimCongo is a cellular automata model based on Bayesian statistical methods tailored for the DRC, built with the Dinamica-EGO platform. The model is parameterized and validated with deforestation observations from the past and runs the scenarios from 2010 through 2050 with a yearly time step. We estimate the Historical Trends trajectory will result in average emissions of 139 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s, a 15% increase over current emissions. The Conservation scenario would result in 58% less clearing than Historical Trends and would conserve carbon-dense forest and woodland savanna areas. The Agricultural Development scenario leads to emissions of 212 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s. These scenarios are heuristic examples of policy’s influence on forest conservation and carbon storage. Our results suggest that 1) passive protection of the DRC’s forest and woodland savanna is insufficient to reduce deforestation; and 2): enactment of a REDD+ plan or similar conservation measure is needed to actively protect Congo forests, their unique ecology, and their important role in the global carbon cycle. PMID:26106897

Flood Seasonality in a Changing Climate - A Comparison Between Northern Europe and Northeastern North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, B.; Dahlke, H. E.; Dieppois, B.; Lawler, D.; Lyon, S. W.

2016-12-01

Fluvial flood events have a large impact on humans, both socially and economically. Concurrent with climate change flood seasonality in cold environments is expected to shift from a snowmelt-dominated to a rainfall-dominated flow regime. This would have profound impacts on water management strategies, i.e. flood risk mitigation, drinking water supply and hydro power. In addition, cold climate hydrological systems exhibit complex interactions with catchment properties and large-scale climate fluctuations making the manifestation of changes difficult to detect and predict. Understanding a possible change in flood seasonality is essential to mitigate risk and to keep management strategies viable under a changing climate. This study explored changes in flood seasonality across near-natural catchments in cold environments of the North Atlantic region (40 - 70° N) using circular statistics and trend tests. Results indicate strong seasonality in flooding for snowmelt-dominated catchments with a single peak occurring in spring (March through May), whereas flood peaks are more equally distributed throughout the year for catchments located close to the Atlantic coast and in the south of the study area. Flood seasonality has changed over the past century seen as decreasing trends in summer maximum daily flows and increasing winter and spring maximum daily flows. Mean daily flows corroborate those findings with approximately 50% of the catchments showing significant changes. Comparing Scandinavia to North America the same trends could be detected with a stronger signal at the west coast of Scandinavia due to the Westerlies. Contrasting trends were detected for spring flows, for which North American catchments showed decreasing trends whereas increasing trends were observed across Scandinavia. Such changes in flood seasonality have clear implications for management strategies such as the estimation of design floods for flood prevention measures.

Clearance Prediction Methodology Needs Fundamental Improvement: Trends Common to Rat and Human Hepatocytes/Microsomes and Implications for Experimental Methodology.

PubMed

Wood, F L; Houston, J B; Hallifax, D

2017-11-01

Although prediction of clearance using hepatocytes and liver microsomes has long played a decisive role in drug discovery, it is widely acknowledged that reliably accurate prediction is not yet achievable despite the predominance of hepatically cleared drugs. Physiologically mechanistic methodology tends to underpredict clearance by several fold, and empirical correction of this bias is confounded by imprecision across drugs. Understanding the causes of prediction uncertainty has been slow, possibly reflecting poor resolution of variables associated with donor source and experimental methods, particularly for the human situation. It has been reported that among published human hepatocyte predictions there was a tendency for underprediction to increase with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, suggesting an inherent limitation using this particular system. This implied an artifactual rate limitation in vitro, although preparative effects on cell stability and performance were not yet resolved from assay design limitations. Here, to resolve these issues further, we present an up-to-date and comprehensive examination of predictions from published rat as well as human studies (where n = 128 and 101 hepatocytes and n = 71 and 83 microsomes, respectively) to assess system performance more independently. We report a clear trend of increasing underprediction with increasing in vivo intrinsic clearance, which is similar both between species and between in vitro systems. Hence, prior concerns arising specifically from human in vitro systems may be unfounded and the focus of investigation in the future should be to minimize the potential in vitro assay limitations common to whole cells and subcellular fractions. Copyright © 2017 by The American Society for Pharmacology and Experimental Therapeutics.

Observationally derived rise in methane surface forcing mediated by water vapour trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feldman, D. R.; Collins, W. D.; Biraud, S. C.; Risser, M. D.; Turner, D. D.; Gero, P. J.; Tadić, J.; Helmig, D.; Xie, S.; Mlawer, E. J.; Shippert, T. R.; Torn, M. S.

2018-04-01

Atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratios exhibited a plateau between 1995 and 2006 and have subsequently been increasing. While there are a number of competing explanations for the temporal evolution of this greenhouse gas, these prominent features in the temporal trajectory of atmospheric CH4 are expected to perturb the surface energy balance through radiative forcing, largely due to the infrared radiative absorption features of CH4. However, to date this has been determined strictly through radiative transfer calculations. Here, we present a quantified observation of the time series of clear-sky radiative forcing by CH4 at the surface from 2002 to 2012 at a single site derived from spectroscopic measurements along with line-by-line calculations using ancillary data. There was no significant trend in CH4 forcing between 2002 and 2006, but since then, the trend in forcing was 0.026 ± 0.006 (99.7% CI) W m2 yr-1. The seasonal-cycle amplitude and secular trends in observed forcing are influenced by a corresponding seasonal cycle and trend in atmospheric CH4. However, we find that we must account for the overlapping absorption effects of atmospheric water vapour (H2O) and CH4 to explain the observations fully. Thus, the determination of CH4 radiative forcing requires accurate observations of both the spatiotemporal distribution of CH4 and the vertically resolved trends in H2O.

Changes over 50 years in fish fauna of a temperate coastal sea: Degradation of trophic structure and nursery function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Veer, Henk W.; Dapper, Rob; Henderson, Peter A.; Jung, A. Sarina; Philippart, Catharina J. M.; Witte, Johannes IJ.; Zuur, Alain F.

2015-03-01

The ongoing daily sampling programme of the fish fauna in the Dutch Wadden Sea using fixed gear was analysed for the years 1960-2011. Spring sampling caught immigrating fish from the coastal zone and autumn samples reflected emigration of young-of-the-year. In total 82 fish species were caught with no clear trend in biodiversity. In both spring and autumn total daily catch fluctuated and peaked in the late 1970s. From 1980 to the present catches of both pelagic and demersal species showed a 10-fold decrease in total biomass. Mean individual biomass decreased in spring between 1980 and the present from about 150 to 20 g wet weight. No trend was found in autumn mean individual biomass which fluctuated around 20 g wet weight. The trophic structure remained constant for both the demersal and benthopelagic fish fauna from 1980 to 2011, whilst the trophic position of pelagic fish in spring fell from about 3.9 to 3.1. Min/max auto-correlation factor analysis showed similar trends in spring and autumn species biomass time series: the first axis represented a decrease from the 1960s followed by stabilization from the mid-1990s. The second trend showed an increase with a maximum around 1980 followed by a steady decrease in spring and a decrease and stabilization from 2000 in autumn. It is argued that the most likely explanatory variables are a combination of external factors: increased water temperature, habitat destruction in the coastal zone (sand dredging and beach nourishment, fishing) and increased predation by top predators for the first trend, and large-scale hydrodynamic circulation for the second trend. We conclude that both the trophic structure of the coastal zone fauna and the nursery function of the Wadden Sea have been reduced since the 1980s. Our findings corroborate that ecological change in coastal ecosystems has not only occurred in the past but still continues.

Spatial and temporal evaluation of long term trend (2005-2014) of OMI retrieved NO2 and SO2 concentrations in Henan Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Leishi; Lee, Chih Sheng; Zhang, Ruiqin; Chen, Liangfu

2017-04-01

Tropospheric NO2 and SO2 concentrations are of great importance with regard to air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change. Due to lack of surface monitoring stations, this study analyzes long term trend of NO2 and SO2 levels (2005-2014), retrieved from Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) board on the NASA's Aura satellite, in an important region of China - Henan Province. Henan Province, located in North China Plain, has encountered serious air pollution problems including extremely high PM2.5 concentrations and as one of the most polluted region in China. The satellite spatial images clearly show that high levels of both NO2 and SO2 are concentrated in north and northeastern regions with much lower levels observed in other parts of Henan. Both pollutants exhibit the highest levels in winter with the least in summer/spring. The temporal trend analysis based on moving average of deseasonalized and decyclic data indicates that for NO2, there is a continuous increasing pattern from 2005 to 2011 at 6.4% per year, thereafter, it shows a decreasing trend (10.6% per year). As for SO2, the increasing trend is about 16% per year from 2005 to 2007 with decreasing rate 7% per year from 2007 to 2014. The economic development with incredible annual 11% GDP growth in Henan is responsible for increasing levels of NO2 and SO2. The observed decreasing SO2 level starting in 2007 is due to reduced SO2 emission, utilization of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) devices and to some extent, in preparation of Beijing 2008 Olympic Games. On the other hand, increasing vehicle numbers (155% from 2006 to 2012) and coal consumption (37% during the same span), along with the lack of denitration process for removing flue/exhaust gas NOx are responsible for increasing NO2 trend until 2011. The ratio of SO2/NO2 started decreasing in 2007 and dropped significantly from 2011 to 2013 indicating good performance of FGD and ever increasing NOx contribution from mobile sources. Unlike those observed in developed countries (US, EU and Japan) where a decreasing trend for both SO2 and NO2 has been observed since 1990s, the observed upward and downward trend found in Henan is similar to those found in North China Plain and other parts of China. The spatial and temporal trend analyses of SO2 and NO2 in four other regions in Henan further indicate a similar trend to those observed in Henan Province, albeit with different increasing and decreasing rate. The results provide regulatory agency to develop action plans to combat air pollution problem in general and SO2 and NO2 problems in particular in Henan. The implications of our findings and recommendations for decision makers are discussed in the paper.

Beware of ligand efficiency (LE): understanding LE data in modeling structure-activity and structure-economy relationships.

PubMed

Polanski, Jaroslaw; Tkocz, Aleksandra; Kucia, Urszula

2017-09-11

On the one hand, ligand efficiency (LE) and the binding efficiency index (BEI), which are binding properties (B) averaged versus the heavy atom count (HAC: LE) or molecular weight (MW: BEI), have recently been declared a novel universal tool for drug design. On the other hand, questions have been raised about the mathematical validity of the LE approach. In fact, neither the critics nor the advocates are precise enough to provide a generally understandable and accepted chemistry of the LE metrics. In particular, this refers to the puzzle of the LE trends for small and large molecules. In this paper, we explain the chemistry and mathematics of the LE type of data. Because LE is a weight metrics related to binding per gram, its hyperbolic decrease with an increasing number of heavy atoms can be easily understood by its 1/MW dependency. Accordingly, we analyzed how this influences the LE trends for ligand-target binding, economic big data or molecular descriptor data. In particular, we compared the trends for the thermodynamic ∆G data of a series of ligands that interact with 14 different target classes, which were extracted from the BindingDB database with the market prices of a commercial compound library of ca. 2.5 mln synthetic building blocks. An interpretation of LE and BEI that clearly explains the observed trends for these parameters are presented here for the first time. Accordingly, we show that the main misunderstanding of the chemical meaning of the BEI and LE parameters is their interpretation as molecular descriptors that are connected with a single molecule, while binding is a statistical effect in which a population of ligands limits the formation of ligand-receptor complexes. Therefore, LE (BEI) should not be interpreted as a molecular (physicochemical) descriptor that is connected with a single molecule but as a property (binding per gram). Accordingly, the puzzle of the surprising behavior of LE is explained by the 1/MW dependency. This effect clearly explains the hyperbolic LE trend not as a real increase in binding potency but as a physical limitation due to the different population of ligands with different MWs in a 1 g sample available for the formation of ligand-receptor complexes. Graphical abstract .

Soda and Other Beverages and the Risk of Kidney Stones

PubMed Central

Taylor, Eric N.; Gambaro, Giovanni; Curhan, Gary C.

2013-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Not all fluids may be equally beneficial for reducing the risk of kidney stones. In particular, it is not clear whether sugar and artificially sweetened soda increase the risk. Design, setting, participants, & measurements We prospectively analyzed the association between intake of several types of beverages and incidence of kidney stones in three large ongoing cohort studies. Information on consumption of beverages and development of kidney stones was collected by validated questionnaires. Results The analysis involved 194,095 participants; over a median follow-up of more than 8 years, 4462 incident cases occurred. There was a 23% higher risk of developing kidney stones in the highest category of consumption of sugar-sweetened cola compared with the lowest category (P for trend=0.02) and a 33% higher risk of developing kidney stones for sugar-sweetened noncola (P for trend=0.003); there was a marginally significant higher risk of developing kidney stones for artificially sweetened noncola (P for trend=0.05). Also, there was an 18% higher risk for punch (P for trend=0.04) and lower risks of 26% for caffeinated coffee (P for trend<0.001), 16% for decaffeinated coffee (P for trend=0.01), 11% for tea (P for trend=0.02), 31%–33% for wine (P for trend<0.005), 41% for beer (P for trend<0.001), and 12% for orange juice (P for trend=0.004). Conclusions Consumption of sugar-sweetened soda and punch is associated with a higher risk of stone formation, whereas consumption of coffee, tea, beer, wine, and orange juice is associated with a lower risk. PMID:23676355

Mobile phone use and incidence of glioma in the Nordic countries 1979-2008: consistency check.

PubMed

Deltour, Isabelle; Auvinen, Anssi; Feychting, Maria; Johansen, Christoffer; Klaeboe, Lars; Sankila, Risto; Schüz, Joachim

2012-03-01

Some case-control studies have reported increased risks of glioma associated with mobile phone use. If true, this would ultimately affect the time trends for incidence rates (IRs). Correspondingly, lack of change in IRs would exclude certain magnitudes of risk. We investigated glioma IR trends in the Nordic countries, and compared the observed with expected incidence rates under various risk scenarios. We analyzed annual age-standardized incidence rates in men and women aged 20 to 79 years during 1979-2008 using joinpoint regression (35,250 glioma cases). Probabilities of detecting various levels of relative risk were computed using simulations. For the period 1979 through 2008, the annual percent change in incidence rates was 0.4% (95% confidence interval = 0.1% to 0.6%) among men and 0.3% (0.1% to 0.5%) among women. Incidence rates have decreased in young men (20-39 years) since 1987, remained stable in middle-aged men (40-59 years) throughout the 30-year study period, and increased slightly in older men (60-79 years). In simulations, assumed relative risks for all users of 2.0 for an induction time of up to 15 years, 1.5 for up to 10 years, and 1.2 for up to 5 years were incompatible with observed incidence time trends. For heavy users of mobile phones, risks of 2.0 for up to 5 years' induction were also incompatible. No clear trend change in glioma incidence rates was observed. Several of the risk increases seen in case-control studies appear to be incompatible with the observed lack of incidence rate increase in middle-aged men. This suggests longer induction periods than currently investigated, lower risks than reported from some case-control studies, or the absence of any association.

Woody vegetation die off and regeneration in response to rainfall variability in the west African Sahel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brandt, Martin; Tappan, G. Gray; Aziz Diouf, Abdoul; Beye, Gora; Mbow, Cheikh; Fensholt, Rasmus

2017-01-01

The greening in the Senegalese Sahel has been linked to an increase in net primary productivity, with significant long-term trends being closely related to the woody strata. This study investigates woody plant growth and mortality within greening areas in the pastoral areas of Senegal, and how these dynamics are linked to species diversity, climate, soil and human management. We analyse woody cover dynamics by means of multi-temporal and multi-scale Earth Observation, satellite based rainfall and in situ data sets covering the period 1994 to 2015. We find that favourable conditions (forest reserves, low human population density, sufficient rainfall) led to a rapid growth of Combretaceae and Balanites aegyptiaca between 2000 and 2013 with an average increase of 4% woody cover. However, the increasing dominance and low drought resistance of drought prone species bears the risk of substantial woody cover losses following drought years. This was observed in 2014–2015, with a die off of Guiera senegalensis in most places of the study area. We show that woody cover and woody cover trends are closely related to mean annual rainfall, but no clear relationship with rainfall trends was found over the entire study period. The observed spatial and temporal variation contrasts with the simplified labels of “greening” or “degradation”. While in principal a low woody plant diversity negatively impacts regional resilience, the Sahelian system is showing signs of resilience at decadal time scales through widespread increases in woody cover and high regeneration rates after periodic droughts. We have reaffirmed that the woody cover in Sahel responds to its inherent climatic variability and does not follow a linear trend.

Red meat intake is positively associated with non-fatal acute myocardial infarction in the Costa Rica Heart Study.

PubMed

Wang, Dongqing; Campos, Hannia; Baylin, Ana

2017-08-01

The adverse effect of red meat consumption on the risk for CVD is a major population health concern, especially in developing Hispanic/Latino countries in which there are clear trends towards increased consumption. This population-based case-control study examined the associations between total, processed and unprocessed red meat intakes and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (MI) in Costa Rica. The study included 2131 survivors of a first non-fatal acute MI and 2131 controls individually matched by age, sex and area of residence. Dietary intake was assessed with a FFQ. OR were estimated by using conditional logistic regression. Higher intakes of total and processed red meat were associated with increased odds of acute MI. The OR were 1·31 (95 % CI 1·04, 1·65) and 1·29 (95 % CI 1·01, 1·65) for the highest quintiles of total red meat (median: 110·8 g or 1 serving/d) and processed red meat intake (median: 36·1 g or 5 servings/week), respectively. There were increasing trends in the odds of acute MI with higher total (P trend=0·01) and processed (P trend=0·02) red meat intakes. Unprocessed red meat intake was not associated with increased odds of acute MI. Substitutions of 50 g of alternative foods (fish, milk, chicken without skin and chicken without fat) for 50 g of total, processed and unprocessed red meat were associated with lower odds of acute MI. The positive association between red meat intake and acute MI in Costa Rica highlights the importance of reducing red meat consumption in middle-income Hispanic/Latino populations.

Interpretation of time series (salinity and temperature) layers in North Atlantic from 1950 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubchenia, A.; Popov, A.; Fedorova, A.; Lebedev, N.

2012-04-01

On the basis of long period data series (1950-2011) form various sources (National Oceanographic Data Center (NOAD) (www.nodc.noaa.gov), WOD09 database and data from ARGO project) 10 boxes in North Atlantic were selected. Location of boxes was determined by circulation pattern in North Atlantic and Euro-Arctic Seas. For further analysis two "seasons" was selected: "cold season" (October-May) and "warm season" (June-September). Data verification was made. Analysis of data series clearly show the "Great Salinity Anomaly" (so-called GSA) in 1960-70th, 1980th and 1990th. Trends of salinity and temperature data series were calculated. Spectral analysis allow us to calculate periodicity from 2 to 22 years. Boxes situated in regions with Arctic waters have singularity showed through domination of high frequency oscillation during propagation to South. In Fram Strait salinity fluctuates with periods 9..11 and 20 years, the same period was calculated using temperature data series. In Denmark Strait there are oscillations of temperature with specific period from 4 to 7 years. Range of variability vary. For salinity it is 0.4..4.6 psu, for temperature it is 0.04..5.5C. In salinity data series from boxes with surface Arctic waters noticed clear minimums connected with GSAs. Trends in Denmark Strait and Fram strait in the end of 2000th are negative at different levels. Since 1975 to 2001 salinity near the southern part of Greenland was increased, since 2001 - decreased. But temperature was raised from 0.04 in 1989 to 5.59 in 2010. Thermohaline characteristics of water masses which has Atlantic origin oscillated with period near 20 years. Salinity near Newfoundland was decreased since 2005. In Farrero-Shetland straits salinity trend is positive since at 100m level, Salinity rising from 1970th to 2006 is about 0.3 psu were noticed. Oscillations with period 2..4 years is weak. But at 800m layer salinity oscillations are different, since 1990 there is not significant oscillations at all. Temperature trend at this level is negative since 1950th. Salinity at 100-300 level at Station M area described with negative trend since 1960 to 1993, in both "seasons". Next, up to 2010 salinity is increasing, but in 2011 salinity dramatically decreased. Main oscillations have periods 2..3 years, 4..5 years and 20 years. At 800m level oscillations are very weak. Temperature is increased since 1995 in surface layer and since 2002 in deeper levels. At all levels temperature dramatically decreased after 2010. In central part of Greenland Sea ("Cupola area") dominated oscillations with period 4 years (1950-60th), 5..7 years (1970th) and 9 years (after 1979). In "cold season" oscillation with 11 years traced. Salinity trend is positive at all levels during last 10-15 years. Salinity and temperature were increased at 800m level up to 2006. It could lead to termination of deep water formation. Since 2006 temperature decreased, especially in "cold season". Salinity trend in West Spitsbergen Current is positive since 1996 at surface and sine 1978 at deeper levels. Temperature was increased since 1965 to 2006 in surface layer, but since 2006 in "warm season" temperature is decreasing at all layers. Main oscillations is 4..5 years, 6..7 years and 9..11 years.

Air Quality Impacts of Oil and Gas Operations in the Northern Colorado Front Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmig, D.; Thompson, C. R.; Jacques, H.; Smith, K. R.; Terrell, R. M.

2014-12-01

Exceedences of the US EPA National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for surface ozone have been reported from monitoring sites in the Northern Colorado Front Range (NCFR) for more than fifteen years during summer. Comparison of ozone records from the NCFR clearly show that ozone primarily results from regional photochemical daytime production. Recent trend analyses do not show an improvement of surface ozone despite efforts by the State of Colorado to curb ozone precursor emissions. Our review of atmospheric volatile organic compound (VOC) measurements from historic and recent monitoring shows significant spatial increases of atmospheric VOC towards the oil and gas development area in Weld County, NW of the Denver-Boulder metropolitan region. Secondly, analyses of VOC trends and VOC signatures show an overall increase of oil and gas associated VOC relative to other VOC sources. These analyses suggest that oil and gas emissions are playing and increasing role in ozone production in the NCFR and that reductions of oil and gas emissions would be beneficial for lowering surface ozone and attainment of the ozone NAAQS.

Socially disparate trends in lifespan variation: a trend study on income and mortality based on nationwide Danish register data.

PubMed

Brønnum-Hansen, Henrik

2017-05-17

Social inequality trends in life expectancy are not informative as to changes in social disparity in the age-at-death distribution. The purpose of the study was to investigate social differentials in trends and patterns of adult mortality in Denmark. Register data on income and mortality from 1986 to 2014 were used to investigate trends in life expectancy, life disparity and the threshold age that separates 'premature' and 'late' deaths. Mortality compression was quantified and compared between income quartiles. Since 1986, male life expectancy increased by 4.2 years for the lowest income quartile and by 8.4 years for the highest income quartile. The clear compression of mortality apparent in the highest income quartile did not occur for the lowest income quartile. Premature and late deaths accounted both by 2.1 years of the increase in life expectancy in the lowest income quartile and by 6.0 and 2.4 years, respectively, in the highest income quartile. Life expectancy increased by 5.2 years among women in the lowest income quartile, 2.4 years due to premature deaths and 2.8 years due to late deaths. The gain in life expectancy among women in the highest income quartile of 5.6 years was distributed by 5.0 and 0.6 years due to premature and late deaths, respectively. The study demonstrates that the increasing social gap in mortality appears differently in the change of the age-at-death distribution. Thus, no compression of mortality was seen in the lowest income quartile. The results do not provide support for a uniformly extension of pension age for all. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Modeling evapotranspiration over China's landmass from 1979-2012 using three surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shaobo; Chen, Baozhang; Zhang, Huifang; Lin, Xiaofeng

2017-04-01

Land surface models (LSMs) are useful tools to estimate land evapotranspiration at a grid scale and for a long-term applications. Here, the Community Land Model 4.0 (CLM4.0), Dynamic Land Model (DLM) and Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model were driven with observation-based forcing data sets, and a multiple LSM ensemble-averaged evapotranspiration (ET) product (LSMs-ET) was developed and its spatial-temporal variations were analyzed for the China landmass over the period 1979-2012. Evaluations against measurements from nine flux towers at site scale and surface water budget based ET at regional scale showed that the LSMs-ET had good performance in most areas of China's landmass. The inter-comparisons between the ET estimates and the independent ET products from remote sensing and upscaling methods suggested that there were a fairly consistent patterns between each data sets. The LSMs-ET produced a mean annual ET of 351.24±10.7 mm yr-1 over 1979-2012, and its spatial-temporal variation analyses showed that (i) there was an overall significant ET increasing trend, with a value of 0.72 mm yr-1 (p < 0.01); (ii) 36.01% of Chinese land had significant increasing trends, ranging from 1 to 9 mm yr-1, while only 6.41% of the area showed significant decreasing trends, ranging from -6.28 to -0.08 mm yr-1. Analyses of ET variations in each climate region clearly showed that the Tibetan Plateau areas were the main contributors to the overall increasing ET trends of China.

Disparity in rainfall trend and patterns among different regions: analysis of 158 years' time series of rainfall dataset across India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Saurav; Chakraborty, Debasish; Paul, Ranjit Kumar; Samanta, Sandipan; Singh, S. B.

2017-10-01

Rainfall anomaly during crop-growing season can have large impact on the agricultural output of a country, especially like India, where two-thirds of the crop land is rain-fed. In such situation, decreased agricultural production not only challenges food security of the country but directly and immediately hits the livelihood of its farming community. In a vast country like India, rainfall or its anomalies hardly follow a specific pattern, rather it is having high variability in spatial domain. This study focused on the trends of national and regional rainfall anomalies (wetness/dryness) along with their interrelationship using time series data of past 158 years. The significant reducing wetness trend (p < 0.05) over north mountainous India was prominent with an increasing trend over southern peninsular India (p < 0.10). However, long-term annual wetness was increasing over entire peninsular India. The results of change point tests indicate that major abrupt changes occurred between early to mid-twentieth century having regional variations. The regional interrelationship was studied using principal component, hierarchical clustering, and pair-wise difference test, which clearly indicated a significantly different pattern in rainfall anomalies for north east India (p = 0.022), north central India (p = 0.022), and north mountainous India (p = 0.011) from that of the all India. Result of this study affirmed high spatial variability in rainfall anomaly and most importantly established the unalike pattern in trends of regional rainfall vis-à-vis national level, ushering towards paradigm shift in rainfall forecast from country scale to regional scale for pragmatic planning.

Observed trends in ground-level O3 in Monterrey, Mexico, during 1993-2014: comparison with Mexico City and Guadalajara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández Paniagua, Iván Y.; Clemitshaw, Kevin C.; Mendoza, Alberto

2017-07-01

Here, we present an assessment of long-term trends in O3 and odd oxygen (O3 + NO2) at the industrial Monterrey metropolitan area (MMA) in NE Mexico. Diurnal amplitudes in Ox (AVd) are used as a proxy for net O3 production, which is influenced by the NO2 photolysis rate. No significant differences in the AVd are observed between weekends and weekdays, although the largest AVd values are observed at sites downwind of industrial areas. The highest O3 mixing ratios are observed in spring, with minimum values in winter. The largest annual variations in O3 are typically observed downwind of the MMA, with the lowest variations generally recorded in highly populated areas and close to industrial areas. A wind sector analysis of mixing ratios of O3 precursors revealed that the dominant sources of emissions are located in the industrial regions within the MMA and surrounding area. Significant increasing trends in O3 in spring, summer, and autumn are observed depending on site location, with trends in annual averages ranging between 0.19 and 0.33 ppb yr-1. Overall, from 1993 to 2014, within the MMA, O3 has increased at an average rate of 0.22 ppb yr-1 (p < 0. 01), which is in marked contrast with the decline of 1.15 ppb yr-1 (p < 0. 001) observed in the Mexico City metropolitan area (MCMA) for the same period. No clear trend is observed from 1996 to 2014 within the Guadalajara metropolitan area (GMA).

Googling trends in conservation biology.

PubMed

Proulx, Raphaël; Massicotte, Philippe; Pépino, Marc

2014-02-01

Web-crawling approaches, that is, automated programs data mining the internet to obtain information about a particular process, have recently been proposed for monitoring early signs of ecosystem degradation or for establishing crop calendars. However, lack of a clear conceptual and methodological framework has prevented the development of such approaches within the field of conservation biology. Our objective was to illustrate how Google Trends, a freely accessible web-crawling engine, can be used to track changes in timing of biological processes, spatial distribution of invasive species, and level of public awareness about key conservation issues. Google Trends returns the number of internet searches that were made for a keyword in a given region of the world over a defined period. Using data retrieved online for 13 countries, we exemplify how Google Trends can be used to study the timing of biological processes, such as the seasonal recurrence of pollen release or mosquito outbreaks across a latitudinal gradient. We mapped the spatial extent of results from Google Trends for 5 invasive species in the United States and found geographic patterns in invasions that are consistent with their coarse-grained distribution at state levels. From 2004 through 2012, Google Trends showed that the level of public interest and awareness about conservation issues related to ecosystem services, biodiversity, and climate change increased, decreased, and followed both trends, respectively. Finally, to further the development of research approaches at the interface of conservation biology, collective knowledge, and environmental management, we developed an algorithm that allows the rapid retrieval of Google Trends data. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Empirical Study of Family Background and Higher Education: Relationship to Acceptance Opportunities and Trends--Based on Surveys at a Key Beijing University from 2007 to 2012

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Silin, Huang; Ziqiang, Xin; Jiawei, Hou

2015-01-01

Which family had a child that was accepted at a key university? To investigate the relationship between family background and children obtaining higher education opportunities and developing trends, the authors analyze survey data from 2007 to 2012 at a key university in Beijing. The results show there is a clear trend of enlargement of the…

Derivation of Tropospheric Ozone Climatology and Trends from TOMS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Newchurch, Michael J.; McPeters, Rich; Logan, Jennifer; Kim, Jae-Hwan

2002-01-01

This research addresses the following three objectives: (1) Derive tropospheric ozone columns from the TOMS instruments by computing the difference between total-ozone columns over cloudy areas and over clear areas in the tropics; (2) Compute secular trends in Nimbus-7 derived tropospheric Ozone column amounts and associated potential trends in the decadal-scale tropical cloud climatology; (3) Explain the occurrence of anomalously high ozone retrievals over high ice clouds.

Fasting insulin levels and metabolic risk factors in type 2 diabetic patients at the first visit in Japan: a 10-year, nationwide, observational study (JDDM 28).

PubMed

Matsuba, Ikuro; Saito, Kazumi; Takai, Masahiko; Hirao, Koichi; Sone, Hirohito

2012-09-01

To investigate the relationship between fasting insulin levels and metabolic risk factors (MRFs) in type 2 diabetic patients at the first clinic/hospital visit in Japan over the years 2000 to 2009. In total, 4,798 drug-naive Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes were registered on their first clinic/hospital visits. Conventional clinical factors and fasting insulin levels were observed at baseline within the Japan Diabetes Clinical Data Management (JDDM) study between consecutive 2-year groups. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed using a model in which the dependent variable was fasting insulin values using various clinical explanatory variables. Fasting insulin levels were found to be decreasing from 2000 to 2009. Multiple linear regression analysis with the fasting insulin levels as the dependent variable showed that waist circumference (WC), BMI, mean blood pressure, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol were significant, with WC and BMI as the main factors. ANCOVA after adjustment for age and fasting plasma glucose clearly shows the decreasing trend in fasting insulin levels and the increasing trend in BMI. During the 10-year observation period, the decreasing trend in fasting insulin was related to the slight increase in WC/BMI in type 2 diabetes. Low pancreatic β-cell reserve on top of a lifestyle background might be dependent on an increase in MRFs.

Fasting Insulin Levels and Metabolic Risk Factors in Type 2 Diabetic Patients at the First Visit in Japan

PubMed Central

Matsuba, Ikuro; Saito, Kazumi; Takai, Masahiko; Hirao, Koichi; Sone, Hirohito

2012-01-01

OBJECTIVE To investigate the relationship between fasting insulin levels and metabolic risk factors (MRFs) in type 2 diabetic patients at the first clinic/hospital visit in Japan over the years 2000 to 2009. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS In total, 4,798 drug-naive Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes were registered on their first clinic/hospital visits. Conventional clinical factors and fasting insulin levels were observed at baseline within the Japan Diabetes Clinical Data Management (JDDM) study between consecutive 2-year groups. Multiple linear regression analysis was performed using a model in which the dependent variable was fasting insulin values using various clinical explanatory variables. RESULTS Fasting insulin levels were found to be decreasing from 2000 to 2009. Multiple linear regression analysis with the fasting insulin levels as the dependent variable showed that waist circumference (WC), BMI, mean blood pressure, triglycerides, and HDL cholesterol were significant, with WC and BMI as the main factors. ANCOVA after adjustment for age and fasting plasma glucose clearly shows the decreasing trend in fasting insulin levels and the increasing trend in BMI. CONCLUSIONS During the 10-year observation period, the decreasing trend in fasting insulin was related to the slight increase in WC/BMI in type 2 diabetes. Low pancreatic β-cell reserve on top of a lifestyle background might be dependent on an increase in MRFs. PMID:22665215

Is solar correction for long-term trend studies stable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laštovička, Jan

2017-04-01

When calculating long-term trends in the ionosphere, the effect of the 11-year solar cycle (i.e. of solar activity) must be removed from data, because it is much stronger than the long-term trend. When a data series is analyzed for trend, usual approach is first to calculate from all data their dependence on solar activity and create an observational model of dependence on solar activity. Then the model data are subtracted from observations and trend is computed from residuals. This means that it is assumed that the solar activity dependence is stable over the whole data series period of time. But what happens if it is not the case? As an ionospheric parameter we consider foE from two European stations with the best long data series of parameters of the ionospheric E layer, Slough/Chilton and Juliusruh over 1975-2014 (40 years). Noon-time medians (10-14 LT) are analyzed. The trend pattern after removing solar influence with one correction for the whole period is complex. For yearly average values for both stations first foE is slightly decreasing in 1975-1990, then the trend levels off or a very little increase occurs in 1990-2005, and finally in 2006-2014 a remarkable decrease is observed. This does not seem to be physically plausible. However, when the solar correction is calculated separately for the three above periods, we obtain a smooth slightly negative trend which changes after the mid-1990 into no trend in coincidence with change of ozone trend. While solar corrections for the first two periods are similar (even though not equal), the solar activity dependence of foE in the third period (lower solar activity) is clearly different. Also foF2 trend revealed some effect of unstable solar correction. Thus the stability of solar correction should be carefully tested when calculating ionospheric trends. This could perhaps explain some of differences between the past published trend results.

Genetic and environmental influences on adult human height across birth cohorts from 1886 to 1994.

PubMed

Jelenkovic, Aline; Hur, Yoon-Mi; Sund, Reijo; Yokoyama, Yoshie; Siribaddana, Sisira H; Hotopf, Matthew; Sumathipala, Athula; Rijsdijk, Fruhling; Tan, Qihua; Zhang, Dongfeng; Pang, Zengchang; Aaltonen, Sari; Heikkilä, Kauko; Öncel, Sevgi Y; Aliev, Fazil; Rebato, Esther; Tarnoki, Adam D; Tarnoki, David L; Christensen, Kaare; Skytthe, Axel; Kyvik, Kirsten O; Silberg, Judy L; Eaves, Lindon J; Maes, Hermine H; Cutler, Tessa L; Hopper, John L; Ordoñana, Juan R; Sánchez-Romera, Juan F; Colodro-Conde, Lucia; Cozen, Wendy; Hwang, Amie E; Mack, Thomas M; Sung, Joohon; Song, Yun-Mi; Yang, Sarah; Lee, Kayoung; Franz, Carol E; Kremen, William S; Lyons, Michael J; Busjahn, Andreas; Nelson, Tracy L; Whitfield, Keith E; Kandler, Christian; Jang, Kerry L; Gatz, Margaret; Butler, David A; Stazi, Maria A; Fagnani, Corrado; D'Ippolito, Cristina; Duncan, Glen E; Buchwald, Dedra; Derom, Catherine A; Vlietinck, Robert F; Loos, Ruth Jf; Martin, Nicholas G; Medland, Sarah E; Montgomery, Grant W; Jeong, Hoe-Uk; Swan, Gary E; Krasnow, Ruth; Magnusson, Patrik Ke; Pedersen, Nancy L; Dahl-Aslan, Anna K; McAdams, Tom A; Eley, Thalia C; Gregory, Alice M; Tynelius, Per; Baker, Laura A; Tuvblad, Catherine; Bayasgalan, Gombojav; Narandalai, Danshiitsoodol; Lichtenstein, Paul; Spector, Timothy D; Mangino, Massimo; Lachance, Genevieve; Bartels, Meike; van Beijsterveldt, Toos Cem; Willemsen, Gonneke; Burt, S Alexandra; Klump, Kelly L; Harris, Jennifer R; Brandt, Ingunn; Nilsen, Thomas Sevenius; Krueger, Robert F; McGue, Matt; Pahlen, Shandell; Corley, Robin P; Hjelmborg, Jacob V B; Goldberg, Jack H; Iwatani, Yoshinori; Watanabe, Mikio; Honda, Chika; Inui, Fujio; Rasmussen, Finn; Huibregtse, Brooke M; Boomsma, Dorret I; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Kaprio, Jaakko; Silventoinen, Karri

2016-12-14

Human height variation is determined by genetic and environmental factors, but it remains unclear whether their influences differ across birth-year cohorts. We conducted an individual-based pooled analysis of 40 twin cohorts including 143,390 complete twin pairs born 1886-1994. Although genetic variance showed a generally increasing trend across the birth-year cohorts, heritability estimates (0.69-0.84 in men and 0.53-0.78 in women) did not present any clear pattern of secular changes. Comparing geographic-cultural regions (Europe, North America and Australia, and East Asia), total height variance was greatest in North America and Australia and lowest in East Asia, but no clear pattern in the heritability estimates across the birth-year cohorts emerged. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that heritability of height is lower in populations with low living standards than in affluent populations, nor that heritability of height will increase within a population as living standards improve.

Learning to control an SSVEP-based BCI speller in naïve subjects.

PubMed

Zhihua Tang; Yijun Wang; Guoya Dong; Weihua Pei; Hongda Chen

2017-07-01

High-speed steady-state visual evoked potential (SSVEP)-based brain-computer interface (BCI) has been demonstrated in several recent studies. This study aimed to investigate some issues regarding feasibility of learning to control an SSVEP-based BCI speller in naïve subjects. An experiment with new BCI users was designed to answer the following questions: (1) How many people can use the SSVEP-BCI speller? (2) How much time is required to train the user? (3) Does continuous system use lead to user fatigue and deteriorated BCI performance? The experiment consisted of three tasks including a 40-class BCI spelling task, a psychomotor vigilance test (PVT) task, and a test of sleepiness scale. Subjects' reaction time (RT) in the PVT task and the fatigue rank in the sleepiness scale test were used as objective and subjective parameters to evaluate subjects' alertness level. Among 11 naïve subjects, 10 of them fulfilled the 9-block experiment. Four of them showed clear learning effects (i.e., an increasing trend of classification accuracy and information transfer rate (ITR)) over time. The remaining subjects showed stable BCI performance during the whole experiment. The results of RT and fatigue rank showed a gradually increasing trend, which is not significant across blocks. In summary, the results of this study suggest that controlling an SSVEP-based BCI speller is in general feasible to learn by naïve subjects after a short training procedure, showing no clear performance deterioration related to fatigue.

Fluorescence from a single Symbiodinium cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzman, Christine; Han, Xue; Shoguchi, Eiichi; Chormaic, Síle Nic

2018-07-01

The partnership between coral and its algal symbionts, Symbiodinium, is crucial to the global environment. Yet, the regulatory process within the photosynthetic machinery of Symbiodinium is still not clearly understood. Here, we studied the influence of light stress from focussed red and blue lasers on single Symbiodinium cells. Fluorescence signals were measured to show cell response. Increasing the incident laser power or the exposure time resulted in an increase followed by a decline in fluorescence intensity. The trend of fluorescence intensity changes was associated with mechanisms of light use efficiency, non-photochemical quenching, photoinhibition, and repair of the cell. Our study provides new approaches to studying the photobiology and physiology of Symbiodinium cells.

Bird populations on the Island of Tinian: persistence despite wholesale loss of native forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Amidon, Frederick A.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.

2012-01-01

Bird habitat on the island of Tinian, Mariana Islands, has been substantially altered, and only around 5% of the island has native forest today. The modern bird fauna is likely to be a subset of the original avifauna where only species tolerant to native forest loss and human disturbance have survived. Avian surveys were conducted on the island in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to provide current densities and abundances of the remaining species, and assess population trends using data collected from previous surveys. During the three surveys (1982, 1996, and 2008), 18 species were detected, and abundances and trends were assessed for 11 species. Five of the nine native species and one alien bird have increased since 1982. Three native birds—Mariana Fruit-Dove (Ptilinopusroseicapilla), Micronesian Honeyeater (Myzomela rubratra), and Tinian Monarch (Monarcha takatsukasae)—have decreased since 1982. Trends for the remaining two birds (one native and one alien) were considered relatively stable. Only five birds, including the Tinian Monarch, showed significant differences among regions of Tinian by year. Increased development on Tinian may result in increases in habitat clearing and expansion of human-dominated habitats, and declines in some bird populations would likely continue or be exacerbated with these actions. Expanded development activities on Tinian would also mean increased cargo movement between Guam and Tinian, elevating the probability of transporting the Brown Tree Snake (Boiga irregularis) to Tinian, which would lead to precipitous decreases and extinctions.

Trends in female authorship in research papers on eating disorders: 20-year bibliometric study.

PubMed

Strand, Mattias; Bulik, Cynthia M

2018-03-01

There is a clear gender gap in scientific authorship. Although the proportions of female authors in medicine and psychiatry have increased over the past decades, women are still underrepresented. Aims To analyse authorship gender trends in eating disorder research. First and last author gender in research articles on eating disorders during the period 1997-2016 were assessed in eating disorder specialty journals, high-impact psychiatry journals and high-impact clinical psychology journals. The total number of papers on eating disorders increased substantially over the observation period, although a decrease was observed in high-impact psychiatry journals. Female authorship increased in both specialty journals and high-impact psychiatry journals. Authors were significantly less likely to be female in high-impact psychiatry and clinical psychology journals than in speciality journals. Eating disorder research has been increasingly allocated to specialty journals over the past 20 years. A consistent gender gap between specialty and high-impact journals exists. Declaration of interest C.M.B is a grant recipient from Shire Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and has participated as a member of their scientific advisory board. These positions are unrelated to the content of this article.

Changes in the oral health of US children and adolescents and dental public health infrastructure since the release of the Healthy People 2010 Objectives.

PubMed

Tomar, Scott L; Reeves, Anne F

2009-01-01

We examined progress in US children's oral health and dental public health infrastructure since the Healthy People 2010 Oral Health Objectives were issued. We summarize trends in the prevalence of dental caries and dental sealants on the basis of national and state-specific data. Trends in state oral health program activities, funding, and staffing were derived from annual surveys. The prevalence of dental caries in primary teeth of children aged 2-4 years increased from 18% in 1988-1994 to 24% in 1999-2004. Racial disparities persisted in that age group, with caries significantly more prevalent among non-Hispanic black and Mexican American children than among non-Hispanic white children. Caries prevalence in primary teeth of non-Hispanic white children aged 6-8 years remained unchanged, but increased among non-Hispanic black and Mexican American children. State-specific prevalence of caries among third-graders ranged from 40.6% to 72.2%. Caries in permanent teeth declined among children and adolescents, while the prevalence of dental sealants increased significantly. State oral health programs' funding and staffing remained modest, although the proportion of states with sealant programs increased 75% in 2000 to 85% in 2007 and the proportion with fluoride varnish programs increased from 13% to 53%. Progress toward improving the oral health of America during the past decade has been mixed. Greater attention to the oral health of young children is clearly needed, and child health professionals can be valuable partners in the effort. With continued high prevalence of a largely preventable disease, ongoing problems with access to basic oral health services, and increased national attention to health care reform, there is a clear need and opportunity for governments to make serious and sustained investments in dental public health.

Decoupling of Deforestation and Soy Production in the Southern Amazon During the Late 2000s

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Macedo, Marcia N.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Morton, Douglas C.; Stickler, Claudia M.; Galford, Gillian L.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.

2011-01-01

From 2006-2010 deforestation in the Amazon frontier state of Mato Grosso decreased to 30% of its historical average (1996-2005) while agricultural production reached an all time high, achieving the oft-cited objective of increasing production while maintaining forest cover. This study combines satellite data with government deforestation and production statistics to assess land-use transitions and potential market and policy drivers associated with these trends. In the forested region of the state, increased soy production from 2001-2005 was entirely due to cropland expansion into previously cleared areas (74%) or forests (26%). From 2006-2010, 78% of production increases were due to expansion (22% to yield increases), with 91% on previously cleared land. Cropland expansion fell from 10% to 2% of deforestation between the two periods, with pasture expansion accounting for most remaining deforestation. Declining deforestation coincided with a collapse of commodity markets and implementation of policy measures to reduce deforestation. Soybean profitability has since increased to pre-2006 levels while deforestation continued to decline, suggesting that anti-deforestation measures may have influenced the agricultural sector. We found little evidence of leakage of soy expansion into cerrado in Mato Grosso or forests in neighboring Amazon states during the late 2000s, although leakage to more distant regions is possible. This study provides empirical evidence that reduced deforestation and increased agricultural production can occur simultaneously in tropical forest frontiers through productive use of already cleared lands. It remains uncertain whether government and industry-led policies can contain deforestation when market conditions again favor a boom in agricultural expansion.

Analysis of the Interdisciplinary Nature of Library and Information Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Prebor, Gila

2010-01-01

Library and information science (LIS) is highly interdisciplinary by nature and is affected by the incessant evolution of technologies. A recent study surveying research trends in the years 2002-6 at various information science departments worldwide has found that a clear trend was identified in Masters theses and doctoral dissertations of social…

Teaching the Evolution of the Mind: Current Findings, Trends, and Controversies in Evolutionary Psychology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liddle, James R.; Shackelford, Todd K.

2011-01-01

As the burgeoning field of evolutionary psychology continues to gain exposure and acceptance throughout the psychological community, it is important to explain this field clearly and accurately to students. This article discusses some recent findings and trends in evolutionary psychological research to aid instructors in their efforts to provide…

Can a coupled meteorology–chemistry model reproduce the historical trend in aerosol direct radiative effects over the Northern Hemisphere?

EPA Science Inventory

The ability of a coupled meteorology–chemistry model, i.e., Weather Research and Forecast and Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ), to reproduce the historical trend in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and clear-sky shortwave radiation (SWR) over the Northern Hemisphere h...

Ozone trends over the United States at different times of day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, J.; Yan, Y.

2017-12-01

In the United States, the decline of summertime daytime peak ozone in the last 20 years has been clearly connected to reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Yet questions remain on how and through what mechanisms ozone at other times of day have changed over the recent decades. Here we analyze the interannual variability and trends of ozone at different hours of day, using observations from about 1000 US sites during 1990-2014. We find a clear diurnal cycle both in the magnitude of ozone trends and in the relative importance of climate variability versus anthropogenic emissions to ozone changes. Interannual climate variability has mainly been associated with the de-trended fluctuation in the US annual daytime ozone over 1990-2014, with a much smaller effect on the nighttime ozone. Reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides have led to substantial growth in the US annual average nighttime ozone due to reduced ozone titration, while the summertime daytime ozone has declined. Environmental policymaking might consider further improvements to reduce ozone levels at night and other non-peak hours.

Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

PubMed Central

Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

2013-01-01

Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

Time trend and age-period-cohort effect on kidney cancer mortality in Europe, 1981-2000.

PubMed

Pérez-Farinós, Napoleón; López-Abente, Gonzalo; Pastor-Barriuso, Roberto

2006-05-03

The incorporation of diagnostic and therapeutic improvements, as well as the different smoking patterns, may have had an influence on the observed variability in renal cancer mortality across Europe. This study examined time trends in kidney cancer mortality in fourteen European countries during the last two decades of the 20th century. Kidney cancer deaths and population estimates for each country during the period 1981-2000 were drawn from the World Health Organization Mortality Database. Age- and period-adjusted mortality rates, as well as annual percentage changes in age-adjusted mortality rates, were calculated for each country and geographical region. Log-linear Poisson models were also fitted to study the effect of age, death period, and birth cohort on kidney cancer mortality rates within each country. For men, the overall standardized kidney cancer mortality rates in the eastern, western, and northern European countries were 20, 25, and 53% higher than those for the southern European countries, respectively. However, age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant annual decrease of -0.7% in the north of Europe, a moderate rise of 0.7% in the west, and substantial increases of 1.4% in the south and 2.0% in the east. This trend was similar among women, but with lower mortality rates. Age-period-cohort models showed three different birth-cohort patterns for both men and women: a decrease in mortality trend for those generations born after 1920 in the Nordic countries, a similar but lagged decline for cohorts born after 1930 in western and southern European countries, and a continuous increase throughout all birth cohorts in eastern Europe. Similar but more heterogeneous regional patterns were observed for period effects. Kidney cancer mortality trends in Europe showed a clear north-south pattern, with high rates on a downward trend in the north, intermediate rates on a more marked rising trend in the east than in the west, and low rates on an upward trend in the south. The downward pattern observed for cohorts born after 1920-1930 in northern, western, and southern regions suggests more favourable trends in coming years, in contrast to the eastern countries where birth-cohort pattern remains upward.

Do contemporary (1980-2015) emissions determine the elemental carbon deposition trend at Holtedahlfonna glacier, Svalbard?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruppel, Meri M.; Soares, Joana; Gallet, Jean-Charles; Isaksson, Elisabeth; Martma, Tõnu; Svensson, Jonas; Kohler, Jack; Pedersen, Christina A.; Manninen, Sirkku; Korhola, Atte; Ström, Johan

2017-10-01

The climate impact of black carbon (BC) is notably amplified in the Arctic by its deposition, which causes albedo decrease and subsequent earlier snow and ice spring melt. To comprehensively assess the climate impact of BC in the Arctic, information on both atmospheric BC concentrations and deposition is essential. Currently, Arctic BC deposition data are very scarce, while atmospheric BC concentrations have been shown to generally decrease since the 1990s. However, a 300-year Svalbard ice core showed a distinct increase in EC (elemental carbon, proxy for BC) deposition from 1970 to 2004 contradicting atmospheric measurements and modelling studies. Here, our objective was to decipher whether this increase has continued in the 21st century and to investigate the drivers of the observed EC deposition trends. For this, a shallow firn core was collected from the same Svalbard glacier, and a regional-to-meso-scale chemical transport model (SILAM) was run from 1980 to 2015. The ice and firn core data indicate peaking EC deposition values at the end of the 1990s and lower values thereafter. The modelled BC deposition results generally support the observed glacier EC variations. However, the ice and firn core results clearly deviate from both measured and modelled atmospheric BC concentration trends, and the modelled BC deposition trend shows variations seemingly independent from BC emission or atmospheric BC concentration trends. Furthermore, according to the model ca. 99 % BC mass is wet-deposited at this Svalbard glacier, indicating that meteorological processes such as precipitation and scavenging efficiency have most likely a stronger influence on the BC deposition trend than BC emission or atmospheric concentration trends. BC emission source sectors contribute differently to the modelled atmospheric BC concentrations and BC deposition, which further supports our conclusion that different processes affect atmospheric BC concentration and deposition trends. Consequently, Arctic BC deposition trends should not directly be inferred based on atmospheric BC measurements, and more observational BC deposition data are required to assess the climate impact of BC in Arctic snow.

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years

DOE PAGES

Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang; ...

2014-11-04

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. Here, we use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41%more » of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAI GS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070yr -1, ranging from 0.0035yr -1 to 0.0127yr -1), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAI GS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAI GS (P<0.05), and marginally significantly (P=0.07) correlated with the residual of LAI(GS) trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. In conclusion, this result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.« less

Detection and attribution of vegetation greening trend in China over the last 30 years

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piao, Shilong; Yin, Guodong; Tan, Jianguang

The reliable detection and attribution of changes in vegetation growth is a prerequisite for the development of strategies for the sustainable management of ecosystems. This is an extraordinary challenge. To our knowledge, this study is the first to comprehensively detect and attribute a greening trend in China over the last three decades. Here, we use three different satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) datasets for detection as well as five different process-based ecosystem models for attribution. Rising atmospheric CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition are identified as the most likely causes of the greening trend in China, explaining 85% and 41%more » of the average growing-season LAI trend (LAI GS) estimated by satellite datasets (average trend of 0.0070yr -1, ranging from 0.0035yr -1 to 0.0127yr -1), respectively. The contribution of nitrogen deposition is more clearly seen in southern China than in the north of the country. Models disagree about the contribution of climate change alone to the trend in LAI GS at the country scale (one model shows a significant increasing trend, whereas two others show significant decreasing trends). However, the models generally agree on the negative impacts of climate change in north China and Inner Mongolia and the positive impact in the Qinghai-Xizang plateau. Provincial forest area change tends to be significantly correlated with the trend of LAI GS (P<0.05), and marginally significantly (P=0.07) correlated with the residual of LAI(GS) trend, calculated as the trend observed by satellite minus that estimated by models through considering the effects of climate change, rising CO 2 concentration and nitrogen deposition, across different provinces. In conclusion, this result highlights the important role of China's afforestation program in explaining the spatial patterns of trend in vegetation growth.« less

Rainfall statistics changes in Sicily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnone, E.; Pumo, D.; Viola, F.; Noto, L. V.; La Loggia, G.

2013-07-01

Changes in rainfall characteristics are one of the most relevant signs of current climate alterations. Many studies have demonstrated an increase in rainfall intensity and a reduction of frequency in several areas of the world, including Mediterranean areas. Rainfall characteristics may be crucial for vegetation patterns formation and evolution in Mediterranean ecosystems, with important implications, for example, in vegetation water stress or coexistence and competition dynamics. At the same time, characteristics of extreme rainfall events are fundamental for the estimation of flood peaks and quantiles that can be used in many hydrological applications, such as design of the most common hydraulic structures, or planning and management of flood-prone areas. In the past, Sicily has been screened for several signals of possible climate change. Annual, seasonal and monthly rainfall data in the entire Sicilian region have been analyzed, showing a global reduction of total annual rainfall. Moreover, annual maximum rainfall series for different durations have been rarely analyzed in order to detect the presence of trends. Results indicated that for short durations, historical series generally exhibit increasing trends, while for longer durations the trends are mainly negative. Starting from these premises, the aim of this study is to investigate and quantify changes in rainfall statistics in Sicily, during the second half of the last century. Time series of about 60 stations over the region have been processed and screened by using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test. In particular, extreme events have been analyzed using annual maximum rainfall series at 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 h duration, while daily rainfall properties have been analyzed in terms of frequency and intensity, also characterizing seasonal rainfall features. Results of extreme events analysis confirmed an increasing trend for rainfall of short durations, especially for 1 h rainfall duration. Conversely, precipitation events of long durations have exhibited a decreased trend. Increase in short-duration precipitation has been observed especially in stations located along the coastline; however, no clear and well-defined spatial pattern has been outlined by the results. Outcomes of analysis for daily rainfall properties have showed that heavy-torrential precipitation events tend to be more frequent at regional scale, while light rainfall events exhibited a negative trend at some sites. Values of total annual precipitation events confirmed a significant negative trend, mainly due to the reduction during the winter season.

Molecular dynamics simulation of diffusion and electrical conductivity in montmorillonite interlayers

DOE PAGES

Greathouse, Jeffery A.; Cygan, Randall T.; Fredrich, Joanne T.; ...

2016-01-20

In this study, the diffusion of water and ions in the interlayer region of smectite clay minerals represents a direct probe of the type and strength of clay–fluid interactions. Interlayer diffusion also represents an important link between molecular simulation and macroscopic experiments. Here we use molecular dynamics simulation to investigate trends in cation and water diffusion in montmorillonite interlayers, looking specifically at the effects of layer charge, interlayer cation and cation charge (sodium or calcium), water content, and temperature. For Na-montmorillonite, the largest increase in ion and water diffusion coefficients occurs between the one-layer and two-layer hydrates, corresponding to themore » transition from inner-sphere to outer-sphere surface complexes. Calculated activation energies for ion and water diffusion in Na-montmorillonite are similar to each other and to the water hydrogen bond energy, suggesting the breaking of water–water and water–clay hydrogen bonds as a likely mechanism for interlayer diffusion. A comparison of interlayer diffusion with that of bulk electrolyte solutions reveals a clear trend of decreasing diffusion coefficient with increasing electrolyte concentration, and in most cases the interlayer diffusion results are nearly coincident with the corresponding bulk solutions. Trends in electrical conductivities computed from the ion diffusion coefficients are also compared.« less

Spatial and temporal variations of the concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y. Q.; Zhang, X. Y.; Sun, J. Y.; Zhang, X. C.; Che, H. Z.; Li, Y.

2015-06-01

Concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 were monitored at 24 stations of CAWNET (China Atmosphere Watch Network) from 2006 to 2014 using GRIMM 180 dust monitors. The highest particulate matter (PM) concentrations were observed at the stations of Xian, Zhengzhou and Gucheng, in Guanzhong and the Hua Bei Plain (HBP). The second highest PM concentrations were observed in northeast China, followed by southern China. According to the latest air quality standards of China, 14 stations reached the PM10 standard and only 7 stations, mainly rural and remote stations, reached the PM2.5 standard. The PM2.5 and PM10 ratios showed a clear increasing trend from northern to southern China, because of the substantial contribution of coarse mineral aerosol in northern China. The PM1 and PM2.5 ratios were higher than 80% at most stations. PM concentrations tended to be highest in winter and lowest in summer at most stations, and mineral dust impacts influenced the results in spring. A decreasing interannual trend was observed in the HBP and southern China from 2006 to 2014, but an increasing trend occurred at some stations in northeast China. Also diurnal variations of PM concentrations and meteorological factors effects were investigated.

Long-term erythemal UV doses at Sodankylä estimated using total ozone, sunshine duration, and snow depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindfors, A. V.; Arola, A.; Kaurola, J.; Taalas, P.; SvenøE, T.

2003-08-01

A method for estimating daily erythemal UV doses using total ozone, sunshine duration, and snow depth has been developed. The method consists of three steps: (1) daily clear-sky UV doses were simulated using the UVSPEC radiative transfer program, with daily values of total ozone as input data, (2) an empirical relationship was sought between the simulated clear-sky UV doses, the measured UV doses, and the duration of bright sunshine, and (3) daily erythemal UV doses were estimated using this relationship. The method accounts for the varying surface albedo by dividing the period of interest into winter and summer days, depending on the snow depth. Using this method, the daily erythemal UV doses at Sodankylä were estimated for the period 1950-1999. This was done using Tromsø's total ozone together with Sodankylä's own sunshine duration and snow depth as input data. Although the method is fairly simple, the results are in good agreement, even on the daily scale, with the UV radiation measured with the Brewer spectrophotometer at Sodankylä. Over the period 1950-1999 a statistically significant increasing trend of 3.9% per decade in erythemal UV doses was found for March. The fact that this trend is much more pronounced during the latter part of the period, which is also the case for April, suggests a connection to the stratospheric ozone depletion. For July, on the other hand, a significant decreasing trend of 3.3% per decade, supported by the changes in both total ozone and sunshine duration, was found.

Vitamin C and fibre consumption from fruits and vegetables improves oxidative stress markers in healthy young adults.

PubMed

Hermsdorff, Helen Hermana M; Barbosa, Kiriaque B F; Volp, Ana Carolina P; Puchau, Blanca; Bressan, Josefina; Zulet, M Ángeles; Martínez, J Alfredo

2012-04-01

The aim of the present cross-sectional study was to assess the potential relationships between fruit and vegetable (FV) consumption and some oxidative stress markers in young adults, with particular emphasis on fibre and vitamin C intake. The study enrolled 246 healthy subjects (eighty-eight men and 158 women), with a mean age of 22 (sd 3) years and a mean BMI of 21·9 (sd 2·8) kg/m2. Dietary intake, anthropometry, blood pressure, lifestyle features and blood biochemical data were assessed with validated procedures. Those subjects in the highest tertile (T) of FV consumption ( ≥ 705 g/d) had statistically lower oxidised LDL (ox-LDL) concentrations as well as higher plasma total antioxidant capacity (TAC) and glutathione peroxidase (GPx) activity (P for trend <0·05), after adjusting for sex, age, energy intake, physical activity, smoking, BMI, vitamin supplement use and other confounding factors. Moreover, plasma ox-LDL concentrations showed a decreasing trend and TAC an increasing trend across tertiles of fibre (T3: ≥14 g/d) and vitamin C (T3: ≥150 mg/d) from FV intake, while GPx activity was positively associated with vitamin C intake (P for trend < 0·05). In conclusion, greater FV consumption was independently associated with reduced ox-LDL as well as increased TAC and GPx activity in healthy young adults, with dietary fibre and vitamin C from FV clearly being implicated in this beneficial relationship.

GEOCHEMICAL FEATURES OF WATER-ROCK INTERACTIONS AT THE SULPHUR BANK MERCURY MINE, LAKE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA

EPA Science Inventory

The Sulphur Bank Mercury Mine on the eastern shore of Clear Lake is the source of poor quality acid mine drainage seeping into Clear Lake. Lateral and vertical geochemical trends in ground water composition point to a number of redox reactions taking place as a function of subsu...

Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Garn, Herbert S.; Rose, William J.

2016-01-19

Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent for streams in the agriculture area and 27 percent for streams in the forested area. Increases in low flow for agriculture streams are attributed to changes in agricultural practices and land use as well as increased precipitation. The decrease in annual flood peak discharge with increased annual precipitation is less clear, but is attributed to increased infiltration from changes in agricultural practices and climatic changes. For future low-flow studies, the 1969–2008 period should be used to determine low-flow characteristics since it represents current (2014) conditions and was generally free of significant trends.

Computing and Representing Sea Ice Trends: Toward a Community Consensus

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wohlleben, T.; Tivy, A.; Stroeve, J.; Meier, Walter N.; Fetterer, F.; Wang, J.; Assel, R.

2013-01-01

Estimates of the recent decline in Arctic Ocean summer sea ice extent can vary due to differences in sea ice data sources, in the number of years used to compute the trend, and in the start and end years used in the trend computation. Compounding such differences, estimates of the relative decline in sea ice cover (given in percent change per decade) can further vary due to the choice of reference value (the initial point of the trend line, a climatological baseline, etc.). Further adding to the confusion, very often when relative trends are reported in research papers, the reference values used are not specified or made clear. This can lead to confusion when trend studies are cited in the press and public reports.

Urban Mobility Analysis on Efficiency and Sustainability by Means of Transportation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Branea, Ana-Maria; Gaman, Marius; Badescu, Stefana

2017-10-01

Patterns of urban land use are inherently linked to the predominantly used means of transportation, both generating and being generated themselves. While each mode of transportation shapes a different development typology a clear understanding of their interrelations and dependencies is needed in order to create a comprehensive mobility strategy. The study proposes a 15-criteria analysis framework developed to identify and quantify the main modes of transportation’s key aspects. The analysis framework was applied to a yearlong research on Timisoara, Romania, comprising hard, quantitative data, digital simulations and mobility pattern analysis and soft data, quality assessment and perceived needs and satisfaction levels. The research was carried out in clear opposition to the national trend of official mobility strategies focusing on accommodating increased levels of car traffic on the underdeveloped existing roads infrastructure. By analysing the efficiency and sustainability of all four main modes of transportation the results offer a holistic comprehensive view. While, despite current practices, no mobility strategy can focus on a single means of transportation, the article will only present in detail the research on cycling, infrastructure and use, as it is the most underdeveloped and least discussed at the national level and proven through our study to be the most efficient for a city of Timisoara’s size and characteristics. By identifying a clear link between urban land use patterns, infrastructure quality and perceptions and the most efficient means of transportation for each particular city type mobility strategies could shift the trend of urban development towards a more sustainable one.

Telenursing: Bioinformation Cornerstone in Healthcare for the 21st Century

PubMed Central

Balenton, Nicole; Chiappelli, Francesco

2017-01-01

Bioinformation is at the very core of 21st-century healthcare. Telehealth consists of the range of healthcare-related services delivered through bioinformation-aided telecommunications across health-related disciplines, including nursing. Whereas it is clear that bedside patient-centered nursing can never be replaced, recent developments in bioinformation-aided telenursing will undoubtedly contribute to improving healthcare effectiveness and efficacy. Current trends show that as telenursing becomes increasingly timely and critical, healthcare professionals adopt new and improved evidence-based practices as a standard for patient care worldwide. PMID:29379260

Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia in developing countries*

PubMed Central

De Armas Rodríguez, Y.; Wissmann, G.; Müller, A.L.; Pederiva, M.A.; Brum, M.C.; Brackmann, R.L.; Capó De Paz, V.; Calderón, E.J.

2011-01-01

Pneumocystis pneumonia (PcP) is a serious fungal infection among immunocompromised patients. In developed countries, the epidemiology and clinical spectrum of PcP have been clearly defined and well documented. However, in most developing countries, relatively little is known about the prevalence of pneumocystosis. Several articles covering African, Asian and American countries were reviewed in the present study. PcP was identified as a frequent opportunistic infection in AIDS patients from different geographic regions. A trend to an increasing rate of PcP was apparent in developing countries from 2002 to 2010. PMID:21894262

Long-term downward trend in total solar irradiance.

PubMed

Willson, R C; Hudson, H S; Frohlich, C; Brusa, R W

1986-11-28

The first 5 years (from 1980 to 1985) of total solar irradiance observations by the first Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM I) experiment on board the Solar Maximum Mission spacecraft show a clearly defined downward trend of -0.019% per year. The existence of this trend has been confirmed by the internal self-calibrations of ACRIM I, by independent measurements from sounding rockets and balloons, and by observations from the Nimbus-7 spacecraft. The trend appears to be due to unpredicted variations of solar luminosity on time scales of years, and it may be related to solar cycle magnetic activity.

Detection of temperature trends within the course of the year using "shifting subseasons"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, Monika; Pokorna, Lucie

2015-04-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there are seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in Central and Eastern Europe. Daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations in Europe during the period 1961-2000 are employed to precisely locate the seasonal and subseasonal trends within the course of the year. Linear trends are calculated for moving "subseasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "shifting trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in Eastern Europe. Two regions stand out: in Iceland and the Eastern Mediterranean, the trends during the year are weak, positive in summer and mostly negative in winter, reaching statistical significance at only few stations. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in Eastern and Southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in Western and Central Europe in February, April, and late June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Our results suggest that using different time scales, apart from the conventional three-month seasons or common months, is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

Black Sea thermohaline properties: Long‐term trends and variations

PubMed Central

Stips, A.; Garcia‐Gorriz, E.; Macias Moy, D.

2017-01-01

Abstract The current knowledge about spatial and temporal dynamics of the Black Sea's thermohaline structure is incomplete because of missing data and sparse distribution of existing measurements in space and time. This study presents 56 year continuous simulations of the Black Sea's hydrodynamics using the 3D General Estuarine Transport Model (GETM), without incorporating any relaxation toward climatological or observational data fields. This property of the model allows us to estimate independent temporal trends, in addition to resolving the spatial structure. The simulations suggest that the intermediate layer temperature is characterized by a weak positive trend (warming), whereas the surface temperature does not show a clear linear trend. Different salinity trends have been established at the surface (negative), upper (weaker negative) and main halocline (positive). Three distinct dynamic periods are identified (1960–1970, 1970–1995, 1995–2015), which exhibit pronounced changes in the Black Sea's thermohaline properties and basin circulation. Strengthening of the main cyclonic circulation, accompanied by intensification of the mesoscale anticyclonic eddy formation is found. Both events strongly affect the sea surface salinity but contribute in opposing directions. Specifically, strong composite large‐scale circulation leads to an increase in sea surface salinity, while enhanced formation of mesoscale anticyclones decreases it. Salinity evolution with time is thus the result of the competition of these two opposing yet interdependent processes. PMID:28989833

A Temporal Association between Accumulated Petrol (Gasoline) Lead Emissions and Motor Neuron Disease in Australia

PubMed Central

Laidlaw, Mark A. S.; Rowe, Dominic B.; Ball, Andrew S.; Mielke, Howard W.

2015-01-01

Background: The age standardised death rate from motor neuron disease (MND) has increased from 1.29 to 2.74 per 100,000, an increase of 112.4% between 1959 and 2013. It is clear that genetics could not have played a causal role in the increased rate of MND deaths over such a short time span. We postulate that environmental factors are responsible for this rate increase. We focus on lead additives in Australian petrol as a possible contributing environmental factor. Methods: The associations between historical petrol lead emissions and MND death trends in Australia between 1962 and 2013 were examined using linear regressions. Results: Regression results indicate best fit correlations between a 20 year lag of petrol lead emissions and age-standardised female death rate (R2 = 0.86, p = 4.88 × 10−23), male age standardised death rate (R2 = 0.86, p = 9.4 × 10−23) and percent all cause death attributed to MND (R2 = 0.98, p = 2.6 × 10−44). Conclusion: Legacy petrol lead emissions are associated with increased MND death trends in Australia. Further examination of the 20 year lag between exposure to petrol lead and the onset of MND is warranted. PMID:26703636

Multi-Scale Analysis of Trends in Northeastern Temperate Forest Springtime Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moon, M.; Melaas, E. K.; Sulla-menashe, D. J.; Friedl, M. A.

2017-12-01

The timing of spring leaf emergence is highly variable in many ecosystems, exerts first-order control growing season length, and significantly modulates seasonally-integrated photosynthesis. Numerous studies have reported trends toward earlier spring phenology in temperate forests, with some papers indicating that this trend is also leading to increased carbon uptake. At broad spatial scales, however, most of these studies have used data from coarse spatial resolution instruments such as MODIS, which does not resolve ecologically important landscape-scale patterns in phenology. In this work, we examine how long-term trends in spring phenology differ across three data sources acquired at different scales of measurements at the Harvard Forest in central Massachusetts. Specifically, we compared trends in the timing of phenology based on long-term in-situ measurements of phenology, estimates based on eddy-covariance measurements of net carbon uptake transition dates, and from two sources of satellite-based remote sensing (MODIS and Landsat) land surface phenology (LSP) data. Our analysis focused on the flux footprint surrounding the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurements (EMS) tower. Our results reveal clearly defined trends toward earlier springtime phenology in Landsat LSP and in the timing of tower-based net carbon uptake. However, we find no statistically significant trend in springtime phenology measured from MODIS LSP data products, possibly because the time series of MODIS observations is relatively short (13 years). The trend in tower-based transition data exhibited a larger negative value than the trend derived from Landsat LSP data (-0.42 and -0.28 days per year for 21 and 28 years, respectively). More importantly, these results have two key implications regarding how changes in spring phenology are impacting carbon uptake at landscape-scale. First, long-term trends in spring phenology can be quite different, depending on what data source is used to estimate the trend, and 2) the response of carbon uptake to climate change may be more sensitive than the response of land surface phenology itself.

Uncovering mass segregation with galaxy analogues in dark-matter simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Gandhali D.; Parker, Laura C.; Wadsley, James

2016-10-01

We investigate mass segregation in group and cluster environments by identifying galaxy analogues in high-resolution dark-matter simulations. Subhaloes identified by the Amiga's Halo Finder (AHF) and ROCKSTAR halo finders have similar mass functions, independent of resolution, but different radial distributions due to significantly different subhalo hierarchies. We propose a simple way to classify subhaloes as galaxy analogues. The radial distributions of galaxy analogues agree well at large halocentric radii for both AHF and ROCKSTAR but disagree near parent halo centres where the phase-space information used by ROCKSTAR is essential. We see clear mass segregation at small radii (within 0.5 rvir) with average galaxy analogue mass decreasing with radius. Beyond the virial radius, we find a mild trend where the average galaxy analogue mass increases with radius. These mass segregation trends are strongest in small groups and dominated by the segregation of low-mass analogues. The lack of mass segregation in massive galaxy analogues suggests that the observed trends are driven by the complex accretion histories of the parent haloes rather than dynamical friction.

[Mobbing and violence at school. Trends from 2002 to 2010].

PubMed

Melzer, W; Oertel, L; Ottova, V

2012-07-01

The purpose of this study was to undertake an assessment and differentiated examination of the development of bullying and violence in schools between 2002 and 2010 in Germany.We examined the national German data of Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study in 2002, 2006 and 2010. A paper-pencil questionnaire was distributed to a representative sample (N=17 929) of 11-, 13- and 15-year-old school children. The evaluation of the data was done by descriptive statistics and logistic regression analyses, controlled by age, gender, family affluence, school type and survey year.A clear positive trend could be identified: from 2002 to 2010 the number of bullies and bully victims decreased whereas the group of the uninvolved pupils increased. There was a delay in this trend for children with low family affluence.The obvious success in the prevention of violence is shown by the decreasing rate of bullies. The paper discusses whether future prevention should focus more on victims and children with educationally deprived background. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Temporal trends in organic carbon content in the main Swiss rivers, 1974-2010.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Murillo, J C; Zobrist, J; Filella, M

2015-01-01

Increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations have often been reported in rivers and lakes of the Northern Hemisphere over the last few decades. High-quality organic carbon (OC) concentration data have been used to study the change in DOC and total (TOC) organic carbon concentrations in the main rivers of Switzerland (Rhône, Rhine, Thur and Aar) between 1974 and 2010. These rivers are characterized by high discharge regimes (due to their Alpine origin) and by running in populated areas. Small long term trends (a general statistically significant decrease in TOC and a less clear increase in DOC concentrations), on the order of 1% of mean OC concentration per year, have been observed. An upward trend before 1999 reversed direction to a more marked downward trend from 1999 to 2010. Of the potential causes of OC temporal variation analysed (water temperature, dissolved reactive phosphorus and river discharge), only discharge explains a significant, albeit still small, part of TOC variability (8-31%), while accounting for barely 2.5% of DOC variability. Estimated anthropogenic TOC and DOC loads (treated sewage) to the rivers could account for a maximum of 4-20% of the temporal trends. Such low predictability is a good example of the limitations faced when studying causality and drivers behind small variations in complex systems. River export of OC from Switzerland has decreased significantly over the period. Since about 5.5% of estimated NEP of Switzerland is exported by the rivers, riverine OC fluxes should be taken into account in a detailed carbon budget of the country. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Children's use of general practitioner services in the five Nordic countries

PubMed Central

Virtanen, J I; Berntsson, L T; Lahelma, E; Köhler, L

2006-01-01

Objective To compare socioeconomic, sociodemographic, and living area differences in children's use of GP services in five Nordic countries from the 1980s to the 1990s and to analyse trends during the period. Design Cross sectional population surveys using random samples comprising 3000 children aged 2–17 years were conducted in 1984 and 1996 in five Nordic countries. Time trends in use of GP services were studied in each country by age, sex, parents' highest level of education, and living area. Setting Five Nordic countries, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden in 1984 and 1996. Participants A total sample of 15 000 children aged 2–17 years. Altogether 3000 children were selected at random from the national population registers of the national bureaus of statistics in each country. Main outcome Health services utilisation on the basis of responses to a questionnaire item asking whether the parents had consulted a GP with regard to their children's health during the previous three months. Main results The prevalence of children's utilisation of GP services varied from 14% in 1984 in Sweden to 28% in 1996 in Iceland. A clear time trend towards increasing utilisation of GP services (p<0.05) was found in all countries except in Denmark. Odds ratios for time trends (1984 = 1.00) varied from 1.22 (1.02 to 1.46) in Sweden to 1.92 (1.62 to 2.30) in Norway. After adjusting for independent variables, a statistically borderline significant declining utilisation trend (OR = 0.85 (0.70 to 1.03)) was found for Denmark. Conclusion Children's use of GP services has increased significantly in four of the five Nordic countries. PMID:16415268

A Descriptive Analysis of Publication Trends in the "Journal of Behavioral Education": 1991-2005

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, David L.; Hamlin, Dawn W.; Hildebrand, Katie E.; Carranza, Mandy K.; Wannarka, Rachel; Hua, Youjia

2007-01-01

Sometimes it is important to look back so that one can more clearly determine future directions. As such, the purpose of this paper was twofold. First, characteristics of participants, settings, interventions, interventionists, design, and measures were coded and analyzed to ascertain the nature of publication trends in the "Journal of Behavioral…

A Cure for Crime? Psycho-Pharmaceuticals and Crime Trends

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marcotte, Dave E.; Markowitz, Sara

2011-01-01

In this paper we consider possible links between the diffusion of new pharmaceuticals used for treating mental illness and crime rates. We describe recent trends in crime and review the evidence showing that mental illness is a clear risk factor both for criminal behavior and victimization. We summarize the development of a number of new…

Perspectives, trends, and forestry opportunities

Treesearch

Calvin F. Bey

1993-01-01

It is clear that our perspective, profession, society and approach to natural resource management has changed a lot over the last century and particularly over the last 30 years. We have adjusted to many changes and will be challenged to adjust to many more in the future. Understanding the global environmental perspective and expected trends should help us as we deal...

Dietary N-nitroso compounds, endogenous nitrosation, and the risk of esophageal and gastric cancer subtypes in the Netherlands Cohort Study.

PubMed

Keszei, András P; Goldbohm, R Alexandra; Schouten, Leo J; Jakszyn, Paula; van den Brandt, Piet A

2013-01-01

Dietary N-nitroso compounds and endogenous nitrosation are important carcinogenic factors, but human evidence of their role is scarce for esophageal cancer and inconsistent for gastric cancer. We studied the relation between risks of esophageal and gastric cancer subtypes and dietary intake of N-nitrosodimethylamine, heme iron, nitrite, and nitrate in the Netherlands Cohort Study. A total of 120,852 men and women aged 55-69 y were recruited in 1986, and diet, based on a 150-item food-frequency questionnaire, and other risk factors were assessed. The cohort was followed for 16.3 y, and 110 esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), 151 esophageal adenocarcinoma, 166 gastric cardia adenocarcinoma, and 497 gastric noncardia adenocarcinoma (GNCA) cases were analyzed along with 4032 subcohort members in a case-cohort analysis. Positive associations were observed between N-nitrosodimethylamine intake and ESCC risk (HR for 0.1-μg/d increase in intake: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.25; P-trend = 0.01 based on tertiles of intake) and GNCA risk (1.06; 95% CI: 1.01, 1.10; P-trend = 0.09) in men. ESCC risk was associated with nitrite intake (HR for 0.1-mg/d increase: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.36; P-trend = 0.06) and heme-iron intake (HR for 1-mg/d increase: 1.83; 95% CI: 0.98, 3.39; P-trend = 0.03). Among women, exposure levels were lower, and we found no convincing positive associations. These results suggest that N-nitroso compounds may influence the risk of ESCC in men, but there are no clear associations for other esophageal and gastric subtypes.

Unmetabolized Folic Acid, Tetrahydrofolate, and Colorectal Adenoma Risk.

PubMed

Rees, Judy R; Morris, Carolyn B; Peacock, Janet L; Ueland, Per M; Barry, Elizabeth L; McKeown-Eyssen, Gail E; Figueiredo, Jane C; Snover, Dale C; Baron, John A

2017-08-01

In a randomized trial of folic acid supplementation for the prevention of colorectal adenomas, we previously found indications of increased risk during later treatment and follow-up. This could have been due to the unmetabolized folic acid (UFA) or natural reduced and methylated folates (mF) to which it is metabolized. In post hoc analyses, we measured mF (the sum of 5-methyl-tetrahydrofolate and 4-alfa-hydroxy-5-methyl-THF) and UFA concentrations in the serum of 924 participants. Using binomial regression models with a log link, we assessed the associations between plasma mF or UFA and adenoma occurrence. We found no association between plasma mF or UFA and overall adenoma risk. However, during later follow-up, the prespecified, composite endpoint of high-risk findings (advanced or multiple adenomas) was positively associated with plasma mF ( P linear trend = 0.009), with a 58% increased risk for participants in the upper versus lowest quartile. An irregular association was seen with plasma UFA, with suggestions of an inverse trend ( P linear trend =0.049). A modest, significant inverse association was also seen between mF and risk of serrated lesions, with a 39% lower risk for upper versus lower quartile participants ( P linear trend = 0.03). In conclusion, during the later follow-up period in which folic acid supplementation was previously seen to increase the risk of advanced and multiple adenomas, higher serum mF was associated with a higher risk of multiple and/or advanced adenomas, but no clear indication that UFA played a direct role. There were indications that higher mF was associated with reduced risk of serrated polyps. Cancer Prev Res; 10(8); 451-8. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

Climatology and trends of summer high temperature days in India during 1969-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaswal, A. K.; Rao, P. C. S.; Singh, Virendra

2015-02-01

Based on the daily maximum air temperature data from 176 stations in India from 1969 to 2013, the climatological distribution of the number of days with high temperature (HT) defined as days with maximum temperature higher than 37°C during summer season (March-June) are studied. With a focus on the regional variability and long-term trends, the impacts of HT days are examined by dividing the country into six geographical regions (North, West, North-central, East, South-central and South). Although the long-term (1969-2013) climatological numbers of HT days display well-defined spatial patterns, there is clear change in climatological mean and coefficient of variation of HT days in a recent period (1991-2013). The long period trends indicate increase in summer HT days by 3%, 5%, and 18% in north, west, and south regions, respectively and decrease by 4% and 9% in north-central and east regions respectively. However, spatial variations in HT days exist across different regions in the country. The data analysis shows that 2010 was the warmest summer year and 2013 was the coolest summer year in India. Comparison of spatial distributions of trends in HT days for 1969-1990 and 1991-2013 periods reveal that there is an abrupt increase in the number of HT days over north, west and north-central regions of India probably from mid 1990s. A steep increase in summer HT days in highly populated cities of Mumbai, New Delhi, Chennai, Jaipur, and Visakhapatnam is noticed during the recent period of 1991-2013. The summer HT days over southern India indicate significant positive correlation with Nino 3.4 index for three months' running mean (December-January-February, January-March, February-April, March-May and April-June).

Global trends in wildfire - perceptions and realities in a changing world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doerr, Stefan; Santin, Cristina

2017-04-01

Wildfire has been an important process affecting the Earth's surface and atmosphere for over 350 million years and human societies have coexisted with fire since their emergence. Many consider wildfire as an accelerating problem, with widely held perceptions both in the media and scientific papers of increasing fire occurrence, severity and resulting losses. Whilst fire and associated impacts have indeed increased in some regions, such parts of western North America, Canada and Russia, fire has been decreasing in other regions such as African savannas. Overall, global area burned appears to have changed little over past decades, and there is increasing evidence that there is less fire in the global landscape today than centuries ago. Regarding fire severity, limited data are available. For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement. Direct fatalities from fire and economic losses also show no clear trends over the past three decades. Trends in indirect impacts, such as health problems from smoke or disruption to social functioning may indeed be on the rise, however, they remain insufficiently quantified to be thoroughly examined. Notwithstanding these general observations, the changes in global fire distribution are of concern due to, for example, their detrimental impacts on peat and soil carbon stores in boreal and some tropical regions, or air pollution levels in SE-Asia. These and other impacts are likely to accelerate in a future warmer climate. This presentation aims to contribute to reducing misconceptions in fire trends and to facilitating a more informed understanding of the realities of global fire.

Decoupling of deforestation and soy production in the southern Amazon during the late 2000s

PubMed Central

Macedo, Marcia N.; DeFries, Ruth S.; Morton, Douglas C.; Stickler, Claudia M.; Galford, Gillian L.; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.

2012-01-01

From 2006 to 2010, deforestation in the Amazon frontier state of Mato Grosso decreased to 30% of its historical average (1996–2005) whereas agricultural production reached an all-time high. This study combines satellite data with government deforestation and production statistics to assess land-use transitions and potential market and policy drivers associated with these trends. In the forested region of the state, increased soy production from 2001 to 2005 was entirely due to cropland expansion into previously cleared pasture areas (74%) or forests (26%). From 2006 to 2010, 78% of production increases were due to expansion (22% to yield increases), with 91% on previously cleared land. Cropland expansion fell from 10 to 2% of deforestation between the two periods, with pasture expansion accounting for most remaining deforestation. Declining deforestation coincided with a collapse of commodity markets and implementation of policy measures to reduce deforestation. Soybean profitability has since increased to pre-2006 levels whereas deforestation continued to decline, suggesting that antideforestation measures may have influenced the agricultural sector. We found little evidence of direct leakage of soy expansion into cerrado in Mato Grosso during the late 2000s, although indirect land-use changes and leakage to more distant regions are possible. This study provides evidence that reduced deforestation and increased agricultural production can occur simultaneously in tropical forest frontiers, provided that land is available and policies promote the efficient use of already-cleared lands (intensification) while restricting deforestation. It remains uncertain whether government- and industry-led policies can contain deforestation if future market conditions favor another boom in agricultural expansion. PMID:22232692

Decoupling of deforestation and soy production in the southern Amazon during the late 2000s.

PubMed

Macedo, Marcia N; DeFries, Ruth S; Morton, Douglas C; Stickler, Claudia M; Galford, Gillian L; Shimabukuro, Yosio E

2012-01-24

From 2006 to 2010, deforestation in the Amazon frontier state of Mato Grosso decreased to 30% of its historical average (1996-2005) whereas agricultural production reached an all-time high. This study combines satellite data with government deforestation and production statistics to assess land-use transitions and potential market and policy drivers associated with these trends. In the forested region of the state, increased soy production from 2001 to 2005 was entirely due to cropland expansion into previously cleared pasture areas (74%) or forests (26%). From 2006 to 2010, 78% of production increases were due to expansion (22% to yield increases), with 91% on previously cleared land. Cropland expansion fell from 10 to 2% of deforestation between the two periods, with pasture expansion accounting for most remaining deforestation. Declining deforestation coincided with a collapse of commodity markets and implementation of policy measures to reduce deforestation. Soybean profitability has since increased to pre-2006 levels whereas deforestation continued to decline, suggesting that antideforestation measures may have influenced the agricultural sector. We found little evidence of direct leakage of soy expansion into cerrado in Mato Grosso during the late 2000s, although indirect land-use changes and leakage to more distant regions are possible. This study provides evidence that reduced deforestation and increased agricultural production can occur simultaneously in tropical forest frontiers, provided that land is available and policies promote the efficient use of already-cleared lands (intensification) while restricting deforestation. It remains uncertain whether government- and industry-led policies can contain deforestation if future market conditions favor another boom in agricultural expansion.

The effects of the financial crisis on primary prevention of cancer.

PubMed

Martin-Moreno, Jose M; Alfonso-Sanchez, Jose Luis; Harris, Meggan; Lopez-Valcarcel, Beatriz Gonzalez

2010-09-01

The present financial crisis will affect primary cancer prevention through several avenues: personal lifestyle choices, exposure to environmental risk factors, decisions made in the private sector and public policy on cancer prevention. Whilst it is clearly problematic to reach solid conclusions on a direct connection between economic crises and cancer mortality, we can identify trends that provide guidance for further action. For some lifestyle choices such as smoking or diet, we argue that public policy may channel existing tendencies during times of crisis for clear added value. In other areas, including research and health system investments, we will make the case that the resources not used now for cancer prevention efforts will lead to increased costs (both financial and human) down the road. Policy makers face a clear choice: they can follow a cost contention strategy, which may reduce expenditure in the short-term only to increase it in the long-term, or they can use the financial crisis as an opportunity to make difficult choices in terms of health service rationalisation, whilst at the same time strengthening evidence-based prevention policies. In short, we argue that despite the scarcity of funds and the governmental priorities on economic recovery, cancer prevention is more relevant now than ever. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in socioeconomic inequalities in self-assessed health in 10 European countries.

PubMed

Kunst, Anton E; Bos, Vivian; Lahelma, Eero; Bartley, Mel; Lissau, Inge; Regidor, Enrique; Mielck, Andreas; Cardano, Mario; Dalstra, Jetty A A; Geurts, José J M; Helmert, Uwe; Lennartsson, Carin; Ramm, Jorun; Spadea, Teresa; Stronegger, Willibald J; Mackenbach, Johan P

2005-04-01

Changes over time in inequalities in self-reported health are studied for increasingly more countries, but a comprehensive overview encompassing several countries is still lacking. The general aim of this article is to determine whether inequalities in self-assessed health in 10 European countries showed a general tendency either to increase or to decrease between the 1980s and the 1990s and whether trends varied among countries. Data were obtained from nationally representative interview surveys held in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, England, The Netherlands, West Germany, Austria, Italy, and Spain. The proportion of respondents with self-assessed health less than 'good' was measured in relation to educational level and income level. Inequalities were measured by means of age-standardized prevalence rates and odds ratios (ORs). Socioeconomic inequalities in self-assessed health showed a high degree of stability in European countries. For all countries together, the ORs comparing low with high educational levels remained stable for men (2.61 in the 1980s and 2.54 in the 1990s) but increased slightly for women (from 2.48 to 2.70). The ORs comparing extreme income quintiles increased from 3.13 to 3.37 for men and from 2.43 to 2.86 for women. Increases could be demonstrated most clearly for Italian and Spanish men and women, and for Dutch women, whereas inequalities in health in the Nordic countries showed no tendency to increase. The results underscore the persistent nature of socioeconomic inequalities in health in modern societies. The relatively favourable trends in the Nordic countries suggest that these countries' welfare states were able to buffer many of the adverse effects of economic crises on the health of disadvantaged groups.

Trends in the Use of Percutaneous Ventricular Assist Devices: Analysis of National Inpatient Sample Data, 2007 Through 2012

PubMed Central

Khera, Rohan; Cram, Peter; Lu, Xin; Vyas, Ankur; Gerke, Alicia; Rosenthal, Gary E.; Horwitz, Phillip A.; Girotra, Saket

2016-01-01

Importance Percutaneous ventricular assist devices (PVADs) provide robust hemodynamic support compared with intra-aortic balloon pumps (IABPs), but clinical use patterns are unknown. Objective To examine contemporary patterns in PVAD use in the United States and compare them with use of IABPs. Design, Setting, and Participants Retrospective study of adults older than 18 years who received a PVAD or IABP while hospitalized in the United States (2007-2012). Main Outcomes and Measures Temporal trends in utilization, patient and hospital characteristics, in-hospital mortality, and cost of PVAD use compared with IABP. Results During 2007 through 2012, utilization of PVADs increased 30-fold (4.6 per million discharges in 2007 to 138 per million discharges in 2012; P for trend < .001) while utilization of IABPs decreased from 1738 per million discharges in 2008 to 1608 per million discharges in 2012 (P for trend = .02). In 2007, an estimated 72 hospitals used PVADs, increasing to 477 in 2011 (P for trend < .001). The number of hospitals with an annual volume of 10 or more PVAD procedures per year increased from 0 in 2007 to 102 in 2011 (21.4% ofPVAD-using hospitals; P for trend < .001). Among PVAD recipients, 67.3% had a diagnosis of cardiogenic shock or acute myocardial infarction (AMI). There was a temporal increase in the use of PVADs in older patients and patients with AMI, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and chronic kidney disease (P for trend < .001 for all). Overall, mortality in PVAD recipients was 28.8%, and mean (SE) hospitalization cost was $85 580 ($4165); both were significantly higher in PVAD recipients with cardiogenic shock (mortality, 47.5%; mean [SE] cost, $113 695 [$6260]; P < .001 for both). The PVAD recipients were less likely than IABP recipients to have cardiogenic shock (34.3% vs 41.2%; P = .001), AMI (48.0% vs68.6%; P < .001), and undergo coronary artery bypass graft surgery (6.2% vs 43.2%; P < .001), but more likely to undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (70.9% vs 40.4%; P < .001). In propensity-matched analysis, PVADs were associated with higher mortality compared with IABP (odds ratio, 1.23 [95% CI, 1.06-1.43]; P = .007). Conclusions and Relevance There has been a substantial increase in the use of PVADs in recent years with an accompanying decrease in the use of IABPs. Given the high mortality, associated cost, and uncertain evidence for a clear benefit, randomized clinical trials are needed to determine whether use of PVADs leads to improved patient outcomes. PMID:25822170

Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hall, D. K.; Comiso, J. C.; Shuman, C. A.; Koenig, L.; DiGirolamo, N. E.

2011-12-01

Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends in the extent of melt and duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. Twelve-year trends in IST are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis. Hall, D.K., J.C. Comiso, N.E. DiGirolamo, C.A. Shuman, J. Key and L.S. Koenig, submitted for journal publication: A Satellite-Derived Climate-Quality Data Record of the Clear-Sky Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Does gravidity influence smoking behaviour in pregnancy? A comparison of multigravid and primigravid women.

PubMed

Morris, Melanie; Maconochie, Noreen; Doyle, Pat

2007-05-01

This study used the data from a retrospective cross-sectional survey to describe the prevalence of smoking in pregnancy in a large UK sample, over more than 20 years of pregnancies. The main objective was to determine whether women in their second or subsequent pregnancy are more or less likely than primigravidae to change their smoking behaviour. The participants were 7506 ever-pregnant women, from 7702 who answered the second stage of a survey of reproductive history in 2001-02, sent to 10 828 women, aged 18-55 years on the UK electoral register. These women gave detailed information on their last pregnancy. The main outcome measure was self-reported cigarette consumption in the first trimester of pregnancy. Nineteen per cent (1417/7506) of women in this sample smoked in the first trimester of the reported pregnancy. The data showed that there had been a decrease over the last 20 years in smoking prevalence, but this trend was not statistically significant after adjustment for confounding (P(trend) = 0.07). There was evidence that multigravidae were more likely to smoke in their pregnancies than were primigravidae (adjusted OR = 1.24, [95% CI 1.01, 1.53]), with a highly significant trend with increasing pregnancy order (P(trend) < 0.0001). Over time, women who reported smoking before pregnancy (n = 1926), showed a decreasing trend in continuing to smoke the same amount after recognising their pregnancies (P(trend) < 0.0001). After adjustment, multigravid smokers were almost 75% more likely than primigravid smokers to continue to smoke with no change in consumption (adjusted OR = 1.74, [95% CI 1.32, 2.28]), with a clear trend found with increasing pregnancy order (P(trend) = 0.001). In this UK population-based study, multigravidae were more likely to smoke in pregnancy than women pregnant for the first time. If already a smoker, they were much less likely to cut down their smoking once they found out they were pregnant, regardless of age. This suggests that a great deal of the burden of morbidity associated with smoking in pregnancy is in the multigravid group.

Sustainable food systems for optimal planetary health.

PubMed

Canavan, Chelsey R; Noor, Ramadhani A; Golden, Christopher D; Juma, Calestous; Fawzi, Wafaie

2017-06-01

Sustainable food systems are an important component of a planetary health strategy to reduce the threat of infectious disease, minimize environmental footprint and promote nutrition. Human population trends and dietary transition have led to growing demand for food and increasing production and consumption of meat, amid declining availability of arable land and water. The intensification of livestock production has serious environmental and infectious disease impacts. Land clearing for agriculture alters ecosystems, increases human-wildlife interactions and leads to disease proliferation. Context-specific interventions should be evaluated towards optimizing nutrition resilience, minimizing environmental footprint and reducing animal and human disease risk. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Factors Related to Serious Injury In Post-NCAP European Cars Involved in Frontal Crashes

PubMed Central

Frampton, Richard; Williams, Owen; Thomas, Pete

2004-01-01

This study examined the relationship between EuroNCAP ratings for body region protection and real world injury risk for 653 belted drivers in frontal crashes. It was also able to comment on further improvements in crash protection for post-EuroNCAP cars. Protection for the head and lower leg appeared good. In terms of life threatening injury, results showed a need to prioritise chest protection, whilst for impairment, protection for the upper leg and ankle/foot should be considered. The EuroNCAP body region scoring system reflects trends in real crash injury risks to all body regions, except for the chest, where there is no clear trend. More generally, further development in the testing regime could usefully concentrate on a restraint system test and the use of smaller dummies seated appropriately, rather than an increase of the test speed. PMID:15319115

Factors related to serious injury in post-NCAP European cars involved in frontal crashes.

PubMed

Frampton, Richard; Williams, Owen; Thomas, Pete

2004-01-01

ABSTRACT This study examined the relationship between EuroNCAP ratings for body region protection and real world injury risk for 653 belted drivers in frontal crashes. It was also able to comment on further improvements in crash protection for post-EuroNCAP cars. Protection for the head and lower leg appeared good. In terms of life threatening injury, results showed a need to prioritise chest protection, whilst for impairment, protection for the upper leg and ankle/foot should be considered. The EuroNCAP body region scoring system reflects trends in real crash injury risks to all body regions, except for the chest, where there is no clear trend. More generally, further development in the testing regime could usefully concentrate on a restraint system test and the use of smaller dummies seated appropriately, rather than an increase of the test speed.

Volcanic Eruption Forecasts From Accelerating Rates of Drumbeat Long-Period Earthquakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Andrew F.; Naylor, Mark; Hernandez, Stephen; Main, Ian G.; Gaunt, H. Elizabeth; Mothes, Patricia; Ruiz, Mario

2018-02-01

Accelerating rates of quasiperiodic "drumbeat" long-period earthquakes (LPs) are commonly reported before eruptions at andesite and dacite volcanoes, and promise insights into the nature of fundamental preeruptive processes and improved eruption forecasts. Here we apply a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo gamma point process methodology to investigate an exceptionally well-developed sequence of drumbeat LPs preceding a recent large vulcanian explosion at Tungurahua volcano, Ecuador. For more than 24 hr, LP rates increased according to the inverse power law trend predicted by material failure theory, and with a retrospectively forecast failure time that agrees with the eruption onset within error. LPs resulted from repeated activation of a single characteristic source driven by accelerating loading, rather than a distributed failure process, showing that similar precursory trends can emerge from quite different underlying physics. Nevertheless, such sequences have clear potential for improving forecasts of eruptions at Tungurahua and analogous volcanoes.

Design and development of the mobile game based on the J2ME technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Junhua

2011-12-01

With the continuous improvement of mobile performance, mobile entertainment applications market trend has been increasingly clear, mobile entertainment applications will be after the PC entertainment applications is another important business growth. Through the full analysis of the current mobile entertainment applications market demand and trends, the author has accumulated a lot of theoretical knowledge and practical experience. Rational, using of some new technology for a mobile entertainment games design, and described the development of key technologies required for mobile game an analysis and design of the game, and to achieve a complete game development. Light of the specific mobile game project - "Battle City", detailed the development of a mobile game based on the J2ME platform, the basic steps and the various key elements, focusing on how to use object-oriented thinking on the role of mobile phones in the abstract and Game Animation package, the source code with specific instructions.

Design and development of the mobile game based on the J2ME technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, JunHua

2012-01-01

With the continuous improvement of mobile performance, mobile entertainment applications market trend has been increasingly clear, mobile entertainment applications will be after the PC entertainment applications is another important business growth. Through the full analysis of the current mobile entertainment applications market demand and trends, the author has accumulated a lot of theoretical knowledge and practical experience. Rational, using of some new technology for a mobile entertainment games design, and described the development of key technologies required for mobile game an analysis and design of the game, and to achieve a complete game development. Light of the specific mobile game project - "Battle City", detailed the development of a mobile game based on the J2ME platform, the basic steps and the various key elements, focusing on how to use object-oriented thinking on the role of mobile phones in the abstract and Game Animation package, the source code with specific instructions.

An overview of quantitative approaches in Gestalt perception.

PubMed

Jäkel, Frank; Singh, Manish; Wichmann, Felix A; Herzog, Michael H

2016-09-01

Gestalt psychology is often criticized as lacking quantitative measurements and precise mathematical models. While this is true of the early Gestalt school, today there are many quantitative approaches in Gestalt perception and the special issue of Vision Research "Quantitative Approaches in Gestalt Perception" showcases the current state-of-the-art. In this article we give an overview of these current approaches. For example, ideal observer models are one of the standard quantitative tools in vision research and there is a clear trend to try and apply this tool to Gestalt perception and thereby integrate Gestalt perception into mainstream vision research. More generally, Bayesian models, long popular in other areas of vision research, are increasingly being employed to model perceptual grouping as well. Thus, although experimental and theoretical approaches to Gestalt perception remain quite diverse, we are hopeful that these quantitative trends will pave the way for a unified theory. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Mortality in Postwar Japan

PubMed Central

TAPIA GRANADOS, JOSÉ A.

2008-01-01

Recent research has shown that after long-term declining trends are excluded, mortality rates in industrial countries tend to rise in economic expansions and fall in economic recessions. In the present work, co-movements between economic fluctuations and mortality changes in postwar Japan are investigated by analyzing time series of mortality rates and eight economic indicators. To eliminate spurious associations attributable to trends, series are detrended either via Hodrick-Prescott filtering or through differencing. As previously found in other industrial economies, general mortality and age-specific death rates in Japan tend to increase in expansions and drop in recessions, for both males and females. The effect, which is slightly stronger for males, is particularly noticeable in those aged 45–64. Deaths attributed to heart disease, pneumonia, accidents, liver disease, and senility—making up about 41% of total mortality—tend to fluctuate procyclically, increasing in expansions. Suicides, as well as deaths attributable to diabetes and hypertensive disease, make up about 4% of total mortality and fluctuate countercyclically, increasing in recessions. Deaths attributed to other causes, making up about half of total deaths, don’t show a clearly defined relationship with the fluctuations of the economy. PMID:18613484

Macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in postwar Japan.

PubMed

Granados, José A Tapia

2008-05-01

Recent research has shown that after long-term declining trends are excluded, mortality rates in industrial countries tend to rise in economic expansions and fall in economic recessions. In the present work, co-movements between economic fluctuations and mortality changes in postwar Japan are investigated by analyzing time series of mortality rates and eight economic indicators. To eliminate spurious associations attributable to trends, series are detrended either via Hodrick-Prescott filtering or through differencing. As previously found in other industrial economies, general mortality and age-specific death rates in Japan tend to increase in expansions and drop in recessions, for both males and females. The effect, which is slightly stronger for males, is particularly noticeable in those aged 45-64. Deaths attributed to heart disease, pneumonia, accidents, liver disease, and senility--making up about 41% of total mortality--tend to fluctuate procyclically, increasing in expansions. Suicides, as well as deaths attributable to diabetes and hypertensive disease, make up about 4% of total mortality and fluctuate countercyclically, increasing in recessions. Deaths attributed to other causes, making up about half of total deaths, don't show a clearly defined relationship with the fluctuations of the economy.

The great 2006 heat wave over California and Nevada: Signal of an increasing trend

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gershunov, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Iacobellis, S.F.

2009-01-01

Most of the great California-Nevada heat waves can be classified into primarily daytime or nighttime events depending on whether atmospheric conditions are dry or humid. A rash of nighttime-accentuated events in the last decade was punctuated by an unusually intense case in July 2006, which was the largest heat wave on record (1948-2006). Generally, there is a positive trend in heat wave activity over the entire region that is expressed most strongly and clearly in nighttime rather than daytime temperature extremes. This trend in nighttime heat wave activity has intensified markedly since the 1980s and especially since 2000. The two most recent nighttime heat waves were also strongly expressed in extreme daytime temperatures. Circulations associated with great regional heat waves advect hot air into the region. This air can be dry or moist, depending on whether a moisture source is available, causing heat waves to be expressed preferentially during day or night. A remote moisture source centered within a marine region west of Baja California has been increasing in prominence because of gradual sea surface warming and a related increase in atmospheric humidity. Adding to the very strong synoptic dynamics during the 2006 heat wave were a prolonged stream of moisture from this southwestern source and, despite the heightened humidity, an environment in which afternoon convection was suppressed, keeping cloudiness low and daytime temperatures high. The relative contributions of these factors and possible relations to global warming are discussed. ?? 2009 American Meteorological Society.

Stable prevalence of obesity in Swedish schoolchildren from 2008 to 2013 but widening socio-economic gap in girls.

PubMed

Moraeus, Lotta; Lissner, Lauren; Sjöberg, Agneta

2014-12-01

The aim of this study was to follow the 5-year prevalence of overweight, obesity and thinness in 7- to 9-year-old children in West Sweden and to investigate whether trends differed according to gender and socio-economic status. Cross-sectional anthropometric measurements of three cohorts in grades one and two were performed in 3492 7- to 9-year-old children in 2008, 2010 and 2013. For body mass index classification, the IOTF/Cole and WHO 2007 references were used. Percentage of inhabitants with high education in the school area was used for socio-economic classification. Between 2008, 2010 and 2013, the overall time-trends in overweight 17.7%, 19.3% and 18.8%, obesity 3.2%, 3.3% and 3.1%, and thinness 6.5%, 4.7% and 6.9%, respectively, were fairly stable using the IOTF/Cole references. Thinness defined by the Cole reference increased in girls. The socio-economic gradient for overweight and obesity was clear by both references, but using the IOTF reference, the gap increased for obesity among girls (p = 0.024). No significant trends were observed with the WHO reference. The overall prevalence of overweight and obesity was stable over 5 years, but we detected growing inequality in obesity and increasing prevalence of thinness in girls. With these regionally representative data, we can draw conclusions about West Sweden, despite an absence of continued national surveillance. ©2014 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long term trends of fish after liming of Swedish streams and lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmgren, Kerstin; Degerman, Erik; Petersson, Erik; Bergquist, Björn

2016-12-01

Thousands of Swedish acidified lakes and streams have been regularly limed for about 30 years. Standard sampling of fish assemblages in lakes and streams was an important part of monitoring the trends after liming, i.e. sampling with multi-mesh gillnets in lakes (EN 14757) and electrofishing in streams (EN 14011). Monitoring data are nationally managed, in the National Register of Survey test-fishing and the Swedish Electrofishing Register. We evaluated long-term data from 1029 electrofishing sites in limed streams and gillnet sampling in 750 limed lakes, along with reference data from 195 stream sites and 101 lakes with no upstream liming in their catchments. The median year of first liming was 1986 for both streams and lakes. The proportion of limed stream sites with no fish clearly decreased with time, mean species richness and proportion of sites with brown trout (Salmo trutta) recruits increased. There were no consistent trends in fish occurrence or species richness at non-limed sites, but occurrence of brown trout recruits also increased in acid as well as neutral reference streams. Abundance of brown trout, perch (Perca fluviatilis) and roach (Rutilus rutilus) increased significantly more at limed sites than at non-limed reference sites sampled before and after 1986. The mean species richness did not change consistently in limed lakes, but decreased in low alkalinity reference lakes, and fish abundance decreased significantly in limed as well as in non-limed lakes.

Trends in incidence of breast cancer among women under 40 in seven European countries: a GRELL cooperative study.

PubMed

Leclère, Brice; Molinié, Florence; Trétarre, Brigitte; Stracci, Fabrizio; Daubisse-Marliac, Laetitia; Colonna, Marc

2013-10-01

Young women are not usually screened for breast cancer (BC). The trends in incidence in this population may better reflect changes in risk factors. However, studies on this subject are scarce and heterogeneous. The aim of this study was to describe the trends in incidence of BC in women under 40 from 1990 to 2008, using pooled European data. Thirty-seven European population-based cancer registries from Belgium, Bulgaria, France, Italy, Portugal, Spain and Switzerland participated in this study. World age-standardized incidence rates were first analyzed graphically and then using a Poisson regression model, in order to estimate average annual percent changes (AAPCs). The overall incidence rate of BC in the area covered increased linearly during the study period by 1.19% (0.93; 1.46) on average per year. This increase varied between countries from 0.20% (-0.53; 0.64) in Bulgaria to 2.68% (1.97; 3.40) in Portugal. In Italy, after a significant rise of 2.33% (1.14; 3.54) per year, BC incidence began decreasing in 2002 by -2.30% (-4.07; -0.50) yearly. The rise in incidence was greater for women under 35 and for ductal carcinomas. This increase can be due to a rise in risk factors and/or changes in diagnosis and surveillance practices, but we could not clearly distinguish between these two non-exclusive explanations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Anthropic disturbances in the sedimentological characteristics of a Northern Patagonian lake: evidencing the impacts of the 20th century settlement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Araneda, A.; Muñoz, V.; Valenzuela, B.; Alvarez, D.; Torrejon, F.; Pedreros, P.; Urrutia, R.

2013-12-01

Traditionally Patagonia has been seen as a very pristine area, being an important reserve of wildlife and clean waters. Nonetheless it was dramatically affected by the first settlers at the beginning of the 20th century, that generated large fires for clearing the land originally covered by native forest. Those fires produced a dramatic impact left behind thousands of dead trees, increasing soil erosion, altering nutrient inputs in the aquatic ecosystems, which in turn affected the aquatic biota. However those impacts have been barely asses, then through the study of the sediment record of lake La Esponja (45°S) we want to evaluate the magnitude of the changes produced by the fires and to determine the resilience capacity of the lake. We analyzed magnetic susceptibility, organic content, charcoal, total phosphorous and a biological proxy (Chironomidae) in a sediment sequence of 60 cm long. Magnetic susceptibility shows a very variable behavior along the profile, being possible to identify a decreasing trend since the bottom, up to the most recent part of the record. An opposite behavior describes the organic content, showing a noticeable increase toward the surficial sediments. The number of charcoal particles -a direct indicator of fires occurrence, shows a peak of fires approximately at seven cm depth, diminishing toward the recent part. Total phosphorous also follow the trend recognized by charcoal, which allow inferring a probable trophic increase of the lake. This trend is partially recognized by chironomid assemblages through the increasing of some taxa typical of a higher nutrient status. Acknowledgements: Fondecyt projects 1120765 and 1120807.

Trends in cell phone use among children in the Danish national birth cohort at ages 7 and 11 years.

PubMed

Sudan, Madhuri; Olsen, Jørn; Sigsgaard, Torben; Kheifets, Leeka

2016-11-01

We prospectively examined trends in cell phone use among children in the Danish National Birth Cohort. Cell phone use was assessed at ages 7 and 11 years, and we examined use patterns by age, by year of birth, and in relation to specific individual characteristics. There was an increase in cell phone use from age 7 (37%) to 11 years (94%). There was a clear pattern of greater reported cell phone use among children at age 7 years with later birth year, but this trend disappeared at age 11. Girls and those who used phones at age 7 talked more often and for longer durations at age 11 years. Low socio-economic status and later year of birth were associated with voice calls at age 7 but not at age 11 years. At age 11 most used cell phones for texting and gaming more than for voice calls. Further, children who started using cell phones at age 7 years were more likely to be heavy cell phone voice users at age 11 years, making early use a marker for higher cumulative exposure regardless of year of birth. As cell phone technology continues to advance, new use patterns will continue to emerge, and exposure assessment research among children must reflect these trends.

Innovations and trends in meat consumption: an application of the Delphi method in Spain.

PubMed

Chamorro, Antonio; Miranda, Francisco J; Rubio, Sergio; Valero, Víctor

2012-12-01

The meat sector in Spain is an important industry. However, traditional consumption is changing as a result of the country's economic crisis and the new structure of households. The objective of the present study was to identify trends in meat consumption in Spain extrapolated to 2016, and the main innovations that should be of interest to firms in the sector. The study was conducted in 2011 using the Delphi method with the participation of 26 experts. The results showed that, while the demand for meat will not vary significantly in amount, it will do so in composition, with chicken replacing beef as the meat of most importance in the shopping basket. In addition, significant growth is expected in certified meat, but the demand for organic meat will not take off. Neither will there be no significant changes in end purchase formats, but there will be a clear trend in consumers' purchasing decision criteria away from price, external appearance and origin towards quality certification and the attributes of the packaging. With respect to end purchase channels, the experts estimate that the current trend will be accentuated with increasing market share for large supermarkets and major distribution brands. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Atmospheric CO2 Record from In Situ Measurements at K-Puszta, Hungary (1981 - 1997)

DOE Data Explorer

Haszpra, Laszlo [Hungarian Meteorological Service, Institute for Atmospheric Physics, Budapest, Hungary

1998-02-23

The K-puszta regional background air pollution monitoring station was established in a clearing in a mixed forest on the Hungarian Great Plain in the middle of the Carpathian Basin. K-puszta is as free from direct pollution as possible in the highly industrialized, densely populated central Europe. Because of the growing vegetation, the station was moved in September 1993 to a larger clearing, also at the same elevation, approximately 500 m from the original site. The region is climatologically calm. The yearly mean atmospheric CO2 concentration at K-puszta, Hungary increased from 354.1 parts per million (ppm) in 1981 to 377.0 ppm in 1997. Because the K-puszta station is located in a clearing of a forested area on the Hungarian Great Plain, it is subject to significant biospheric effects. As a result, the record from K-puszta shows high seasonal and interannual variability. However, the trends and temporal features of the K-puszta record parallel those observed at other Northern Hemisphere baseline air pollution monitoring stations (Haszpra 1995).

Attribution of spring snow water equivalent (SWE) changes over the northern hemisphere to anthropogenic effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi; Naveed Khaliq, M.

2017-06-01

Snow is an important component of the cryosphere and it has a direct and important influence on water storage and supply in snowmelt-dominated regions. This study evaluates the temporal evolution of snow water equivalent (SWE) for the February-April spring period using the GlobSnow observation dataset for the 1980-2012 period. The analysis is performed for different regions of hemispherical to sub-continental scales for the Northern Hemisphere. The detection-attribution analysis is then performed to demonstrate anthropogenic and natural effects on spring SWE changes for different regions, by comparing observations with six CMIP5 model simulations for three different external forcings: all major anthropogenic and natural (ALL) forcings, greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing only, and natural forcing only. The observed spring SWE generally displays a decreasing trend, due to increasing spring temperatures. However, it exhibits a remarkable increasing trend for the southern parts of East Eurasia. The six CMIP5 models with ALL forcings reproduce well the observed spring SWE decreases at the hemispherical scale and continental scales, whereas important differences are noted for smaller regions such as southern and northern parts of East Eurasia and northern part of North America. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings are clearly detected for the spring SWE decline at the hemispherical scale, based on multi-model ensemble signals. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings, however, are less clear for the smaller regions or with single-model signals, indicating the large uncertainty in regional SWE changes, possibly due to stronger influence of natural climate variability.

Variations in droughts and wet spells and their influences in China: 1924-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Shuang; Yan, Xiaodong

2018-02-01

The Wetness Index was calculated using gridded monthly precipitation and potential evapotranspiration in China during 1924-2013. Variations of dry and wet periods in different areas and the impact of meteorological factors were analyzed. The results show the following: (1) Drought areas (W ≤ 0.5) and wet areas (W > 0.65) in China constituted 33-56% and 35-55%, respectively, of the total land area and there were no secular trends during 1924-2013. During this period, the areas of drought and wet were inversely proportional, but had different changes among seven regions. (2) Since 1954, the overall trend in China has changed from wet to dry. Drought areas increased significantly (p < 0.05) during 1954-1983. Drought areas increased (not significantly) during 1984-2013, but the rate of drought/wetness clearly decreased (tendency rates were between - 0.05 and 0.05/30 year, and accounted for 54.79% of China). (3) Dry/wet variation in North, Northeast, Central, and Southwest China played major roles. (4) Except in the North region, drought/wet conditions were affected by surface warming.

[Changes in the patterns of disease after the epidemiological transition in health in Chile, 1950-2003].

PubMed

Luque, Cecilia; Cisternas, Felipe A; Araya, Magdalena

2006-06-01

During the twentieth century there was a change in the pattern of diseases in Europe, with an increase in the incidence of allergies and autoimmune disorders, that paralleled a decrease of infectious conditions. The Hygiene hypothesis proposes that these phenomena are causally related. To evaluate the epidemiological changes of allergic, autoimmune, and infectious diseases in Chile between 1950 and 2003. Search for the incidence and prevalence of these diseases in the national records published by the Ministry of Health, as well as through a systematic search of national literature using PubMed and Scielo as search engines. The annual incidence of tuberculosis, rheumatic fever, measles, and typhoid fever has progressively diminished in Chile since 1970. Figures for the national prevalence for asthma, rheumatoid arthritis, and type I diabetes are scarce and difficult to compare, but clearly show an increasing epidemiological trend in the last 20 years. The national figures suggest that, although the country has only recently gone through an epidemiological transition in health problems, there are detectable changes that show the same trends described in Europe.

The making of a germ panic, then and now.

PubMed Central

Tomes, N

2000-01-01

Over the last 2 decades, a heightened interest in germs has been evident in many aspects of American popular culture, including news coverage, advertisements, and entertainment media. Although clearly a response to the AIDS epidemic and other recent disease outbreaks, current obsessions with germs have some striking parallels with a similar period of intense anxiety about disease germs that occurred between 1900 and 1940. A comparison of these 2 periods of germ "panic" suggests some of the long-term cultural trends that contributed to their making. Both germ panics reflected anxieties about societal incorporation, associated with expanding markets, transportation networks, and mass immigration. They were also shaped by new trends in public health education, journalism, advertising, and entertainment media. In comparison to the first germ panic, the current discourse about the "revenge of the superbugs" is considerably more pessimistic because of increasing worries about the environment, suspicions of governmental authority, and distrust of expert knowledge. Yet, as popular anxieties about infectious disease have increased, public health scientists have been attracting favorable coverage in their role as "medical detectives" on the trail of the "killer germ." PMID:10667179

The effect of acid precipitation on tree growth in eastern North America

Treesearch

Charles V. Cogbill

1976-01-01

Detailed study of the history of forest tree growth by tree-ring analysis is used to assess the effect of acid precipitation. The pattern and historical trends of acid precipitation deposition are compared with growth trends from mature forest stands in New Hampshire and Tennessee. No clear indication of a regional, synchronized decrease in tree growth was found. The...

Double Play: The Need for 4-H to Partner in Youth Sports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Martin, Perry D.; Kaufman, Eric K.

2017-01-01

Fewer children in the United States are playing team-based sports, and the trend is making national headlines. While there is no complete agreement as to the predominant reason for this trend, it is clear that a national conversation on this problem has begun, and Cooperative Extension holds the potential for getting kids back in the game. At its…

Suicide and the 2008 economic recession: Who is most at risk? Trends in suicide rates in England and Wales 2001–2011

PubMed Central

Coope, Caroline; Gunnell, David; Hollingworth, William; Hawton, Keith; Kapur, Nav; Fearn, Vanessa; Wells, Claudia; Metcalfe, Chris

2014-01-01

The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16–64 years old) for the period 2001–2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16–34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16–24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25–34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35–44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16–34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35–44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45–64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16–34 years, may have begun before the 2008 economic recession whilst for men aged 35–44 years old increased suicide rates mirrored recession related unemployment. This evidence suggests indicators of economic strain other than unemployment and redundancies, such as personal debt and house repossessions may contribute to increased suicide rates in younger-age men whilst for men aged 35–44 years old job loss and long-term unemployment is a key risk factor. PMID:25054280

Suicide and the 2008 economic recession: who is most at risk? Trends in suicide rates in England and Wales 2001-2011.

PubMed

Coope, Caroline; Gunnell, David; Hollingworth, William; Hawton, Keith; Kapur, Nav; Fearn, Vanessa; Wells, Claudia; Metcalfe, Chris

2014-09-01

The negative impacts of previous economic recessions on suicide rates have largely been attributed to rapid rises in unemployment in the context of inadequate social and work protection programmes. We have investigated trends in indicators of the 2008 economic recession and trends in suicide rates in England and Wales in men and women of working age (16-64 years old) for the period 2001-2011, before, during and after the economic recession, our aim was to identify demographic groups whose suicide rates were most affected. We found no clear evidence of an association between trends in female suicide rates and indicators of economic recession. Evidence of a halt in the previous downward trend in suicide rates occurred for men aged 16-34 years in 2006 (95% CI Quarter 3 (Q3) 2004, Q3 2007 for 16-24 year olds & Q1 2005, Q4 2006 for 25-34 year olds), whilst suicide rates in 35-44 year old men reversed from a downward to upward trend in early 2010 (95% CI Q4 2008, Q2 2011). For the younger men (16-34 years) this change preceded the sharp increases in redundancy and unemployment rates of early 2008 and lagged behind rising trends in house repossessions and bankruptcy that began around 2003. An exception were the 35-44 year old men for whom a change in suicide rate trends from downwards to upwards coincided with peaks in redundancies, unemployment and rises in long-term unemployment. Suicide rates across the decade rose monotonically in men aged 45-64 years. Male suicide in the most-to-medium deprived areas showed evidence of decreasing rates across the decade, whilst in the least-deprived areas suicide rates were fairly static but remained much lower than those in the most-deprived areas. There were small post-recession increases in the proportion of suicides in men in higher management/professional, small employer/self-employed occupations and fulltime education. A halt in the downward trend in suicide rates amongst men aged 16-34 years, may have begun before the 2008 economic recession whilst for men aged 35-44 years old increased suicide rates mirrored recession related unemployment. This evidence suggests indicators of economic strain other than unemployment and redundancies, such as personal debt and house repossessions may contribute to increased suicide rates in younger-age men whilst for men aged 35-44 years old job loss and long-term unemployment is a key risk factor. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Oxygen consumption by oak chips in a model wine solution; Influence of the botanical origin, toast level and ellagitannin content.

PubMed

Navarro, María; Kontoudakis, Nikolaos; Giordanengo, Thomas; Gómez-Alonso, Sergio; García-Romero, Esteban; Fort, Francesca; Canals, Joan Miquel; Hermosín-Gutíerrez, Isidro; Zamora, Fernando

2016-05-15

The botanical origin, toast level and ellagitannin content of oak chips in a model wine solution have been studied in terms of their influence on oxygen consumption. French oak chips released significantly higher amounts of ellagitannins than American oak chips at any toast level. The release of ellagitannins by oak chips decreased as the toast level increased in the French oak but this trend was not so clear in American oak. Oxygen consumption rate was clearly related to the level of released ellagitannins. Therefore, oak chips should be chosen for their potential to release ellagitannins release should be considered, not only because they can have a direct impact on the flavor and body of the wine, but also because they can protect against oxidation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dust inputs and bacteria influence dissolved organic matter in clear alpine lakes.

PubMed

Mladenov, N; Sommaruga, R; Morales-Baquero, R; Laurion, I; Camarero, L; Diéguez, M C; Camacho, A; Delgado, A; Torres, O; Chen, Z; Felip, M; Reche, I

2011-07-26

Remote lakes are usually unaffected by direct human influence, yet they receive inputs of atmospheric pollutants, dust, and other aerosols, both inorganic and organic. In remote, alpine lakes, these atmospheric inputs may influence the pool of dissolved organic matter, a critical constituent for the biogeochemical functioning of aquatic ecosystems. Here, to assess this influence, we evaluate factors related to aerosol deposition, climate, catchment properties, and microbial constituents in a global dataset of 86 alpine and polar lakes. We show significant latitudinal trends in dissolved organic matter quantity and quality, and uncover new evidence that this geographic pattern is influenced by dust deposition, flux of incident ultraviolet radiation, and bacterial processing. Our results suggest that changes in land use and climate that result in increasing dust flux, ultraviolet radiation, and air temperature may act to shift the optical quality of dissolved organic matter in clear, alpine lakes. © 2011 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.

The impact of prescription opioids on all-cause mortality in Canada.

PubMed

Imtiaz, Sameer; Rehm, Jürgen

2016-08-01

An influential study from the United States generated considerable discussion and debate. This study documented rising morbidity and mortality in midlife among white non-Hispanic Americans in the 21st century, with clear linkages of all-cause mortality to increasing rates of poisonings, suicides and chronic liver disease deaths. All of these causes of deaths are strongly related to the use of legal and illegal substances, but the study stressed the importance of prescription opioids. Given the similarities between the United States and Canada in prescription opioid use, the assessment of similar all-cause mortality trends is relevant for Canada. As this commentary highlights, the all-cause mortality shifts seen in the United States cannot be seen in Canada for either sex or age groups. The exact reasons for the differences between the two countries are not clear, but it is important for public health to further explore this question.

Contribution of human papilloma virus to the incidence of squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck in a European population with high smoking prevalence.

PubMed

Tinhofer, I; Jöhrens, K; Keilholz, U; Kaufmann, A; Lehmann, A; Weichert, W; Stenzinger, A; Stromberger, C; Klinghammer, K; Becker, E-T; Dommerich, S; Stölzel, K; Hofmann, V M; Hildebrandt, B; Moser, L; Ervens, J; Böttcher, A; Albers, A; Stabenow, R; Reinecke, A; Budach, V; Hoffmeister, B; Raguse, J D

2015-03-01

Increases in incidence of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) in countries with falling tobacco use have been attributed to a growing role of human papilloma virus (HPV) in the carcinogenesis. Trends of HPV prevalence in populations with persistently high portions of smokers are poorly characterised. Registry data from East Germany were used to determine incidence trends between 1998 and 2011. Data from patients treated at the Charité University Medicine Berlin between 2004 and 2013 (cohort 1, N=436) were used for estimation of trends in HPV prevalence, smoking and survival. HPV prevalence was prospectively confirmed in cohort 2 (N=213) comprising all primary HNSCC cases at the Charité in 2013. Between 1998 and 2011 incidence of both OPSCC and non-OPSCC increased. An increase in HPV prevalence (% of HPV+ cases in 2004-2006 versus 2012-2013: 27% versus 59%, P=0.0004) accompanied by a moderate decrease in the portion of current smokers was observed in OPSCC but not in non-OPSCC. The change in disease epidemiology in OPSCC was associated with significant improvement in overall survival. Increased HPV prevalence in OPSCC (48%) compared to non-OPSCC (11%) was confirmed in cohort 2. Despite clear differences to the United States in terms of tobacco use, the increase in OPSCC incidence in a European population was also mainly attributed to HPV, and the HPV status significantly affected prognosis. For clinical trial design it is important to consider the large group of smokers within HPV-induced OPSCC. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Influences of removing linear and nonlinear trends from climatic variables on temporal variations of annual reference crop evapotranspiration in Xinjiang, China.

PubMed

Li, Yi; Yao, Ning; Chau, Henry Wai

2017-08-15

Reference crop evapotranspiration (ET o ) is a key parameter in field irrigation scheduling, drought assessment and climate change research. ET o uses key prescribed (or fixed or reference) land surface parameters for crops. The linear and nonlinear trends in different climatic variables (CVs) affect ET o change. This research aims to reveal how ET o responds after the related CVs were linearly and nonlinearly detrended over 1961-2013 in Xinjiang, China. The ET o -related CVs included minimum (T min ), average (T ave ), and maximum air temperatures (T max ), wind speed at 2m (U 2 ), relative humidity (RH) and sunshine hour (n). ET o was calculated using the Penman-Monteith equation. A total of 29 ET o scenarios, including the original scenario, 14 scenarios in Group I (ET o was recalculated after removing linear trends from single or more CVs) and 14 scenarios in Group II (ET o was recalculated after removing nonlinear trends from the CVs), were generated. The influence of U 2 was stronger than influences of the other CVs on ET o for both Groups I and II either in northern, southern or the entirety of Xinjiang. The weak influences of increased T min , T ave and T max on increasing ET o were masked by the strong effects of decreased U 2 &n and increased RH on decreasing ET o . The effects of the trends in CVs, especially U 2 , on changing ET o were clearly shown. Without the general decreases of U 2 , ET o would have increased in the past 53years. Due to the non-monotone variations of the CVs and ET o , the results of nonlinearly detrending CVs on changing ET o in Group II should be more plausible than the results of linearly detrending CVs in Group I. The decreasing ET o led to a general relief in drought, which was indicated by the recalculated aridity index. Therefore, there would be a slightly lower risk of water utilization in Xinjiang, China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Observed soil temperature trends associated with climate change in the Tibetan Plateau, 1960-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Xuewei; Luo, Siqiong; Lyu, Shihua

2018-01-01

Soil temperature, an important indicator of climate change, has rarely explored due to scarce observations, especially in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. In this study, changes observed in five meteorological variables obtained from the TP between 1960 and 2014 were investigated using two non-parametric methods, the modified Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator method. Analysis of annual series from 1960 to 2014 has shown that surface (0 cm), shallow (5-20 cm), deep (40-320 cm) soil temperatures (ST), mean air temperature (AT), and precipitation (P) increased with rates of 0.47 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.36 °C/decade, 0.35 °C/decade, and 7.36 mm/decade, respectively, while maximum frozen soil depth (MFD) as well as snow cover depth (MSD) decreased with rates of 5.58 and 0.07 cm/decade. Trends were significant at 99 or 95% confidence level for the variables, with the exception of P and MSD. More impressive rate of the ST at each level than the AT indicates the clear response of soil to climate warming on a regional scale. Monthly changes observed in surface ST in the past decades were consistent with those of AT, indicating a central place of AT in the soil warming. In addition, with the exception of MFD, regional scale increasing trend of P as well as the decreasing MSD also shed light on the mechanisms driving soil trends. Significant negative-dominated correlation coefficients (α = 0.05) between ST and MSD indicate the decreasing MSD trends in TP were attributable to increasing ST, especially in surface layer. Owing to the frozen ground, the relationship between ST and P is complicated in the area. Higher P also induced higher ST, while the inhibition of freeze and thaw process on the ST in summer. With the increasing AT, P accompanied with the decreasing MFD, MSD should be the major factors induced the conspicuous soil warming of the TP in the past decades.

Measured solubilities and speciations of neptunium, plutonium, and americium in a typical groundwater (J-13) from the Yucca Mountain region; Milestone report 3010-WBS 1.2.3.4.1.3.1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nitsche, H.; Gatti, R.C.; Standifer, E.M.

1993-07-01

Solubility and speciation data are important in understanding aqueous radionuclide transport through the geosphere. They define the source term for transport retardation processes such as sorption and colloid formation. Solubility and speciation data are useful in verifying the validity of geochemical codes that are part of predictive transport models. Results are presented from solubility and speciation experiments of {sup 237}NpO{sub 2}{sup +}, {sup 239}Pu{sup 4+}, {sup 241}Am{sup 3+}/Nd{sup 3+}, and {sup 243}Am{sup 3+} in J-13 groundwater (from the Yucca Mountain region, Nevada, which is being investigated as a potential high-level nuclear waste disposal site) at three different temperatures (25{degree}, 60{degree},more » and 90{degree}C) and pH values (5.9, 7.0, and 8.5). The solubility-controlling steady-state solids were identified and the speciation and/or oxidation states present in the supernatant solutions were determined. The neptunium solubility decreased with increasing temperature and pH. Plutonium concentrations decreased with increasing temperature and showed no trend with pH. The americium solutions showed no clear solubility trend with increasing temperature and increasing pH.« less

Rising trends of gastric cancer and peptic ulcer in the 19th century.

PubMed

Sonnenberg, A; Baron, J H

2010-10-01

The risk of dying from gastric cancer appears to have increased among consecutive generations born during the 19th century. To follow the time trends of hospitalization for gastric cancer and test whether they confirm such increase. Inpatient records of the last two centuries from four hospitals in Scotland and three US hospitals were analysed. Proportional rates of hospitalization for gastric cancer, gastric ulcer and duodenal ulcer were calculated during consecutive 5-year periods. The data from all seven cities revealed strikingly similar patterns. No hospital admissions for gastric cancer or peptic ulcer were recorded prior to 1800. Hospital admissions for gastric cancer increased in an exponential fashion throughout the 19th and the beginning of the 20th century. In a majority of cities, the rise in hospitalization for gastric cancer preceded a similar rise in hospitalization for gastric ulcer. Hospitalization for these two latter diagnoses clearly preceded hospitalization for duodenal ulcer by 20-40 years. The occurrence of gastric cancer, gastric ulcer and duodenal ulcer markedly increased during the 19th century. Improvements in hygiene may have resulted in the decline of infections by other gastrointestinal organisms that had previously kept concomitant infection by Helicobacter pylori suppressed. Published 2010. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Evolution of surface sensible heat over the Tibetan Plateau under the recent global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Lihua; Huang, Gang; Fan, Guangzhou; Qu, Xia; Zhao, Guijie; Hua, Wei

2017-10-01

Based on regular surface meteorological observations and NCEP/DOE reanalysis data, this study investigates the evolution of surface sensible heat (SH) over the central and eastern Tibetan Plateau (CE-TP) under the recent global warming hiatus. The results reveal that the SH over the CE-TP presents a recovery since the slowdown of the global warming. The restored surface wind speed together with increased difference in ground-air temperature contribute to the recovery in SH. During the global warming hiatus, the persistent weakening wind speed is alleviated due to the variation of the meridional temperature gradient. Meanwhile, the ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature show a significant increasing trend in that period caused by the increased total cloud amount, especially at night. At nighttime, the increased total cloud cover reduces the surface effective radiation via a strengthening of atmospheric counter radiation and subsequently brings about a clear upward trend in ground surface temperature and the difference in ground-air temperature. Cloud-radiation feedback plays a significant role in the evolution of the surface temperature and even SH during the global warming hiatus. Consequently, besides the surface wind speed, the difference in ground-air temperature becomes another significant factor for the variation in SH since the slowdown of global warming, particularly at night.

Spreading a medical home redesign: effects on emergency department use and hospital admissions.

PubMed

Reid, Robert J; Johnson, Eric A; Hsu, Clarissa; Ehrlich, Kelly; Coleman, Katie; Trescott, Claire; Erikson, Michael; Ross, Tyler R; Liss, David T; Cromp, DeAnn; Fishman, Paul A

2013-01-01

The patient-centered medical home (PCMH) is being rapidly deployed in many settings to strengthen US primary care, improve quality, and control costs; however, evidence supporting this transformation is still lacking. We describe the Group Health experience in attempting to replicate the effects on health care use seen in a PCMH prototype clinic via a systemwide spread using Lean as the change strategy. We used an interrupted time series analysis with a patient-month unit of analysis over a 4-year period that included baseline, implementation, and stabilization periods for 412,943 patients. To account for secular trends across these periods, we compared changes in use of face-to-face primary care visits, emergency department visits, and inpatient admissions with those of a nonequivalent comparison group of patients served by community network practices. After accounting for secular trends among network patients, patients empaneled to the PCMH clinics had 5.1% and 6.7% declines in primary care office visits in early and later stabilization years, respectively, after the implementation year. This trend was accompanied by a 123% increase in the use of secure electronic message threads and a 20% increase in telephone encounters. Declines were also seen in emergency department visits at 1 and 2 years (13.7% and 18.5%) compared with what would be expected based on secular trends in network practices. No statistically significant changes were found for hospital admissions. The Group Health experience shows it is possible to reduce emergency department use with PCMH transformation across a diverse set of clinics using a clear change strategy (Lean) and sufficient resources and supports.

Twenty Years of High-Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Imagery around Australia: Inter-Annual and Annual Variability

PubMed Central

Foster, Scott D.; Griffin, David A.; Dunstan, Piers K.

2014-01-01

The physical climate defines a significant portion of the habitats in which biological communities and species reside. It is important to quantify these environmental conditions, and how they have changed, as this will inform future efforts to study many natural systems. In this article, we present the results of a statistical summary of the variability in sea surface temperature (SST) time-series data for the waters surrounding Australia, from 1993 to 2013. We partition variation in the SST series into annual trends, inter-annual trends, and a number of components of random variation. We utilise satellite data and validate the statistical summary from these data to summaries of data from long-term monitoring stations and from the global drifter program. The spatially dense results, available as maps from the Australian Oceanographic Data Network's data portal (http://www.cmar.csiro.au/geonetwork/srv/en/metadata.show?id=51805), show clear trends that associate with oceanographic features. Noteworthy oceanographic features include: average warming was greatest off southern West Australia and off eastern Tasmania, where the warming was around 0.6°C per decade for a twenty year study period, and insubstantial warming in areas dominated by the East Australian Current, but this area did exhibit high levels of inter-annual variability (long-term trend increases and decreases but does not increase on average). The results of the analyses can be directly incorporated into (biogeographic) models that explain variation in biological data where both biological and environmental data are on a fine scale. PMID:24988444

Global Lakes Sentinel Services: Monitoring Water Quality Trends in Deep, Clear Lakes to Detect Causes and Effects of Changes in Trophic Status

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poser, Kathrin; Peters, Steef; Hommersom, Annelies; Giardino, Claudia; Bresciani, Mariano; Cazzaniga, Ilaria; Schenk, Karin; Heege, Thomas; Philipson, Petra; Ruescas, Ana; Bottcher, Martin; Stelzer, Kerstin

2015-12-01

The GLaSS project develops a prototype infrastructure to ingest and process large amounts of Sentinel-2 and Sentinel-3 data for lakes and reservoirs. To demonstrate the value of satellite observations for the management of aquatic ecosystems, global case studies are performed addressing different types of lakes with their respective problems and management questions. One of these case studies is concentrating on deep clear lakes worldwide. The aim of this case study is to evaluate trends of chlorophyll-a concentrations (Chl-a) as a proxy of the trophic status based on the MERIS full resolution data archive. Some preliminary results of this case study are presented here.

Low back pain and physical activity--A 6.5 year follow-up among young adults in their transition from school to working life.

PubMed

Lunde, Lars-Kristian; Koch, Markus; Hanvold, Therese N; Wærsted, Morten; Veiersted, Kaj B

2015-11-12

The association between leisure time physical activity and low back pain in young adults is unclear and is in the need of prospectively obtained evidence. This study examined the course of low back pain and the association between low back pain and leisure time physical activity in a cohort of young adults in their transition from school to working life. Both low back pain and leisure time physical activity was monitored over a 6.5 year period in 420 subjects starting out as students within hairdressing, electrical installation and media/design. The association between physical activity and low back pain was investigated through the follow-up period by using linear mixed models analysis. Low back pain was significantly influenced by time and overall there was a decreasing trend of low back pain prevalence throughout the follow-up. Analysis showed a weak trend of decreasing low back pain with moderate/high physical activity levels, but this association was not significant. Low back pain decreased during follow-up with baseline as reference. Findings in our study did show non-significant trends of reduced low back pain with increased leisure time physical activity. Still, we could not support the theory of moderate/high levels of physical activity acting protective against low back pain in young adults entering working life. Our results, in combination with previous relevant research, cannot support a clear relationship between physical activity and low back pain for young adults. Thus, recommendations regarding effect of physical activity on reducing low back pain for this group are not clear.

Genetic and environmental influences on adult human height across birth cohorts from 1886 to 1994

PubMed Central

Jelenkovic, Aline; Hur, Yoon-Mi; Sund, Reijo; Yokoyama, Yoshie; Siribaddana, Sisira H; Hotopf, Matthew; Sumathipala, Athula; Rijsdijk, Fruhling; Tan, Qihua; Zhang, Dongfeng; Pang, Zengchang; Aaltonen, Sari; Heikkilä, Kauko; Öncel, Sevgi Y; Aliev, Fazil; Rebato, Esther; Tarnoki, Adam D; Tarnoki, David L; Christensen, Kaare; Skytthe, Axel; Kyvik, Kirsten O; Silberg, Judy L; Eaves, Lindon J; Maes, Hermine H; Cutler, Tessa L; Hopper, John L; Ordoñana, Juan R; Sánchez-Romera, Juan F; Colodro-Conde, Lucia; Cozen, Wendy; Hwang, Amie E; Mack, Thomas M; Sung, Joohon; Song, Yun-Mi; Yang, Sarah; Lee, Kayoung; Franz, Carol E; Kremen, William S; Lyons, Michael J; Busjahn, Andreas; Nelson, Tracy L; Whitfield, Keith E; Kandler, Christian; Jang, Kerry L; Gatz, Margaret; Butler, David A; Stazi, Maria A; Fagnani, Corrado; D'Ippolito, Cristina; Duncan, Glen E; Buchwald, Dedra; Derom, Catherine A; Vlietinck, Robert F; Loos, Ruth JF; Martin, Nicholas G; Medland, Sarah E; Montgomery, Grant W; Jeong, Hoe-Uk; Swan, Gary E; Krasnow, Ruth; Magnusson, Patrik KE; Pedersen, Nancy L; Dahl-Aslan, Anna K; McAdams, Tom A; Eley, Thalia C; Gregory, Alice M; Tynelius, Per; Baker, Laura A; Tuvblad, Catherine; Bayasgalan, Gombojav; Narandalai, Danshiitsoodol; Lichtenstein, Paul; Spector, Timothy D; Mangino, Massimo; Lachance, Genevieve; Bartels, Meike; van Beijsterveldt, Toos CEM; Willemsen, Gonneke; Burt, S Alexandra; Klump, Kelly L; Harris, Jennifer R; Brandt, Ingunn; Nilsen, Thomas Sevenius; Krueger, Robert F; McGue, Matt; Pahlen, Shandell; Corley, Robin P; Hjelmborg, Jacob v B; Goldberg, Jack H; Iwatani, Yoshinori; Watanabe, Mikio; Honda, Chika; Inui, Fujio; Rasmussen, Finn; Huibregtse, Brooke M; Boomsma, Dorret I; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Kaprio, Jaakko; Silventoinen, Karri

2016-01-01

Human height variation is determined by genetic and environmental factors, but it remains unclear whether their influences differ across birth-year cohorts. We conducted an individual-based pooled analysis of 40 twin cohorts including 143,390 complete twin pairs born 1886–1994. Although genetic variance showed a generally increasing trend across the birth-year cohorts, heritability estimates (0.69-0.84 in men and 0.53-0.78 in women) did not present any clear pattern of secular changes. Comparing geographic-cultural regions (Europe, North America and Australia, and East Asia), total height variance was greatest in North America and Australia and lowest in East Asia, but no clear pattern in the heritability estimates across the birth-year cohorts emerged. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that heritability of height is lower in populations with low living standards than in affluent populations, nor that heritability of height will increase within a population as living standards improve. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.20320.001 PMID:27964777

Observational Evidence of Changes in Water Vapor, Clouds, and Radiation at the ARM SGP Site

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dong, Xiquan; Xi, Baike; Minnus, Patrick

2006-01-01

Characterizing water vapor and cloud effects on the surface radiation budget is critical for understanding the current climate because water vapor is the most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere and clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in predicting potential future climate change. Several studies have shown that insolation over land declined until 1990 then increased until the present. Using 8 years of surface data, we observed the increasing trend of insolation from 1997 to 2000, but detected a significant decrease from 2001 to 2004. The variation of cloud fraction mirrors that of insolation with an overall increase of 1 percent per year. Under clear-sky conditions, water vapor changes have a greater impact on longwave flux than on insolation.

Cost-effectiveness research in cancer therapy: a systematic review of literature trends, methods and the influence of funding

PubMed Central

Al-Badriyeh, Daoud; Alameri, Marwah; Al-Okka, Randa

2017-01-01

Objective To perform a first-time analysis of the cost-effectiveness (CE) literature on chemotherapies, of all types, in cancer, in terms of trends and change over time, including the influence of industry funding. Design Systematic review. Setting A wide range of cancer-related research settings within healthcare, including health systems, hospitals and medical centres. Participants All literature comparative CE research of drug-based cancer therapies in the period 1986 to 2015. Primary and secondary outcome measures Primary outcomes are the literature trends in relation to journal subject category, authorship, research design, data sources, funds and consultation involvement. An additional outcome measure is the association between industry funding and study outcomes. Analysis Descriptive statistics and the χ2, Fisher exact or Somer's D tests were used to perform non-parametric statistics, with a p value of <0.05 as the statistical significance measure. Results Total 574 publications were analysed. The drug-related CE literature expands over time, with increased publishing in the healthcare sciences and services journal subject category (p<0.001). The retrospective data collection in studies increased over time (p<0.001). The usage of prospective data, however, has been decreasing (p<0.001) in relation to randomised clinical trials (RCTs), but is unchanging for non-RCT studies. The industry-sponsored CE studies have especially been increasing (p<0.001), in contrast to those sponsored by other sources. While paid consultation involvement grew throughout the years, the declaration of funding for this is relatively limited. Importantly, there is evidence that industry funding is associated with favourable result to the sponsor (p<0.001). Conclusions This analysis demonstrates clear trends in how the CE cancer research is presented to the practicing community, including in relation to journals, study designs, authorship and consultation, together with increased financial sponsorship by pharmaceutical industries, which may be more influencing study outcomes than other funding sources. PMID:28131999

Imported malaria in a cosmopolitan European city: a mirror image of the world epidemiological situation.

PubMed

Millet, Juan Pablo; Garcia de Olalla, Patricia; Carrillo-Santisteve, Paloma; Gascón, Joaquim; Treviño, Begoña; Muñoz, José; Gómez I Prat, Jordi; Cabezos, Juan; González Cordón, Anna; Caylà, Joan A

2008-04-08

International travel and migration have been related with an increase of imported malaria cases. There has been considerable immigration to Barcelona from low-income countries (LIC) in recent years. The objective is to describe the epidemiology and to determine the trends of the disease in Barcelona. Analysis of the cases notified among city residents between 1989 and 2005. Patients were classified as: tourists, voluntary workers, resident immigrants (visiting friends and relatives, VFR) and recently arrived immigrants. An analysis was conducted using the chi2 test and comparison of means. As a measure of association we calculated the Relative Risk (RR) and Odds Ratio (OR) with a Confidence Interval of 95% (CI) and carried out a trends analysis. Of the total of 1,579 imported cases notified, 997 (63.1%) lived in Barcelona city, and 55.1% were male. The mean age of patients was 32.7 years. The incidence increased from 2.4 cases/100,000 in 1989 to 3.5 cases/100,000 in 2005 (RR 1.46 CI:1.36-1.55). This increase was not statistically significant (trends analysis, p = 0.36). In terms of reason for travelling, 40.7% were VFR, 33.6% tourists, 12.1% voluntary workers and 13.6% were recently arrived immigrants. The most frequent species found was Plasmodium falciparum (71.3%), mainly in visitors to Africa (OR = 2.3, CI = 1.7-3.2). The vast majority (82.2%) had had some contact with Africa (35.9% with Equatorial Guinea, a Spanish ex-colony) and 96.6% had not completed chemoprophylaxis. Six deaths were observed, all tourists who had travelled to Africa and not taken chemoprophylaxis (3.9% fatality rate). Over the period studied there is an increase in malaria incidence, however the trend is not statistically significant. Lack of chemoprophylaxis compliance and the association between Africa and P. falciparum are very clear in the imported cases. Most of the patients with malaria did not take chemoprophylaxis.

Global food demand and the sustainable intensification of agriculture.

PubMed

Tilman, David; Balzer, Christian; Hill, Jason; Befort, Belinda L

2011-12-13

Global food demand is increasing rapidly, as are the environmental impacts of agricultural expansion. Here, we project global demand for crop production in 2050 and evaluate the environmental impacts of alternative ways that this demand might be met. We find that per capita demand for crops, when measured as caloric or protein content of all crops combined, has been a similarly increasing function of per capita real income since 1960. This relationship forecasts a 100-110% increase in global crop demand from 2005 to 2050. Quantitative assessments show that the environmental impacts of meeting this demand depend on how global agriculture expands. If current trends of greater agricultural intensification in richer nations and greater land clearing (extensification) in poorer nations were to continue, ~1 billion ha of land would be cleared globally by 2050, with CO(2)-C equivalent greenhouse gas emissions reaching ~3 Gt y(-1) and N use ~250 Mt y(-1) by then. In contrast, if 2050 crop demand was met by moderate intensification focused on existing croplands of underyielding nations, adaptation and transfer of high-yielding technologies to these croplands, and global technological improvements, our analyses forecast land clearing of only ~0.2 billion ha, greenhouse gas emissions of ~1 Gt y(-1), and global N use of ~225 Mt y(-1). Efficient management practices could substantially lower nitrogen use. Attainment of high yields on existing croplands of underyielding nations is of great importance if global crop demand is to be met with minimal environmental impacts.

Stratospheric processes: Observations and interpretation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brune, William H.; Cox, R. Anthony; Turco, Richard; Brasseur, Guy P.; Matthews, W. Andrew; Zhou, Xiuji; Douglass, Anne; Zander, Rudi J.; Prendez, Margarita; Rodriguez, Jose M.

1991-01-01

Explaining the observed ozone trends discussed in an earlier update and predicting future trends requires an understanding of the stratospheric processes that affect ozone. Stratospheric processes occur on both large and small spatial scales and over both long and short periods of time. Because these diverse processes interact with each other, only in rare cases can individual processes be studied by direct observation. Generally the cause and effect relationships for ozone changes were established by comparisons between observations and model simulations. Increasingly, these comparisons rely on the developing, observed relationships among trace gases and dynamical quantities to initialize and constrain the simulations. The goal of this discussion of stratospheric processes is to describe the causes for the observed ozone trends as they are currently understood. At present, we understand with considerable confidence the stratospheric processes responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole but are only beginning to understand the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes. Even though the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes were not clearly determined, it is likely that they, just as those over Antarctica, involved chlorine and bromine chemistry that was enhanced by heterogeneous processes. This discussion generally presents only an update of the observations that have occurred for stratospheric processes since the last assessment (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1990), and is not a complete review of all the new information about stratospheric processes. It begins with an update of the previous assessment of polar stratospheres (WMO, 1990), followed by a discussion on the possible causes for the ozone trends at middle latitudes and on the effects of bromine and of volcanoes.

Mega trends in business create mega changes for training and education

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shealy, R.E.; Moore, N.E.

1996-12-31

Four mega-trends for business organizations are clearly emerging: globalization, computerization, information economy, and management. These mega-trends will have a profound impact on the human resources of business organizations, particularly related to new skill requirements that will be more complex, more in-depth, and broader in scope. New skill requirements, coupled with new technological advances in the delivery of employee development programs, will have significant ramifications for internal training departments and educational institutions. This paper explores the ramifications for those involved in the training and education of employees in business organizations.

Effects of substitutional Li on the ferromagnetic response of Li co-doped ZnO:Co nanoparticles.

PubMed

Awan, Saif Ullah; Hasanain, S K; Bertino, Massimo F; Jaffari, G Hassnain

2013-04-17

Li co-doped ZnO:Co (Zn0.96-yCo0.04LiyO , y ≤ 0.1) nanoparticles were synthesized by the sol-gel technique and the correlation between the structural, electronic and magnetic properties was investigated. All the samples show a single phase hexagonal (wurtzite) ZnO structure and no secondary phases were detected. Variational trends in lattice parameters suggest the incorporation of Li in the ZnO:Co system in both substitutional and interstitial sites. Detailed electronic studies have been performed by high-resolution x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS) to determine the states of Zn, O, Co and Li. It was determined that Co substitutes at Zn sites (CoZn) while the O vacancy and Zn defects did not show much variation with increasing Li concentration. Deconvolution of the Li XPS peak showed a clear non-monotonic trend in the variation of the substitutional Li (LiZn) and interstitial Li (Lii) defects with increasing Li concentration in the particles. The magnetization study of the samples showed that the variation of the moment closely followed the trend of variation of the LiZn defects. The data are interpreted in terms of substitutional Li acting as a hole dopant and optimizing the conditions for ferromagnetism in Co-doped ZnO. Interstitial Li is not seen to be playing this role.

The cognitive neuroscience of ageing.

PubMed

Grady, Cheryl

2012-06-20

The availability of neuroimaging technology has spurred a marked increase in the human cognitive neuroscience literature, including the study of cognitive ageing. Although there is a growing consensus that the ageing brain retains considerable plasticity of function, currently measured primarily by means of functional MRI, it is less clear how age differences in brain activity relate to cognitive performance. The field is also hampered by the complexity of the ageing process itself and the large number of factors that are influenced by age. In this Review, current trends and unresolved issues in the cognitive neuroscience of ageing are discussed.

Extreme events in total ozone over the Northern mid-latitudes: an analysis based on long-term data sets from five European ground-based stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieder, Harald E.; Jancso, Leonhardt M.; Rocco, Stefania Di; Staehelin, Johannes; Maeder, Joerg A.; Peter, Thomas; Ribatet, Mathieu; Davison, Anthony C.; de Backer, Hugo; Koehler, Ulf; Krzyścin, Janusz; Vaníček, Karel

2011-11-01

We apply methods from extreme value theory to identify extreme events in high (termed EHOs) and low (termed ELOs) total ozone and to describe the distribution tails (i.e. very high and very low values) of five long-term European ground-based total ozone time series. The influence of these extreme events on observed mean values, long-term trends and changes is analysed. The results show a decrease in EHOs and an increase in ELOs during the last decades, and establish that the observed downward trend in column ozone during the 1970-1990s is strongly dominated by changes in the frequency of extreme events. Furthermore, it is shown that clear ‘fingerprints’ of atmospheric dynamics (NAO, ENSO) and chemistry [ozone depleting substances (ODSs), polar vortex ozone loss] can be found in the frequency distribution of ozone extremes, even if no attribution is possible from standard metrics (e.g. annual mean values). The analysis complements earlier analysis for the world's longest total ozone record at Arosa, Switzerland, confirming and revealing the strong influence of atmospheric dynamics on observed ozone changes. The results provide clear evidence that in addition to ODS, volcanic eruptions and strong/moderate ENSO and NAO events had significant influence on column ozone in the European sector.

Indicators of success for smart law enforcement in protected areas: A case study for Russian Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) reserves.

PubMed

Hötte, Michiel H H; Kolodin, Igor A; Bereznuk, Sergei L; Slaght, Jonathan C; Kerley, Linda L; Soutyrina, Svetlana V; Salkina, Galina P; Zaumyslova, Olga Y; Stokes, Emma J; Miquelle, Dale G

2016-01-01

Although considerable conservation resources have been committed to develop and use law enforcement monitoring and management tools such as SMART, measures of success are ill-defined and, to date, few reports detail results post-implementation. Here, we present 4 case studies from protected areas with Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in Russia, in which indicators of success were defined and evaluated at each. The ultimate goal was an increase in tiger numbers to 1 individual/100 km(2) at each site. We predicted that improvements in law enforcement effectiveness would be followed by increases in prey numbers and, subsequently, tiger numbers. We used short-term and long-term indicators of success, including: (i) patrol team effort and effectiveness; (ii) catch per unit effort indicators (to measure reductions in threats); and (iii) changes in target species numbers. In addition to implementing a monitoring system, we focused on improving law enforcement management using an adaptive management process. Over 4 years, we noted clear increases in patrol effort and a partial reduction in threats. Although we did not detect clear trends in ungulate numbers, tiger populations remained stable or increased, suggesting that poaching of tigers may be more limiting than prey depletion. Increased effectiveness is needed before a clear reduction in threats can be noted, and more time is needed before detecting responses in target populations. Nonetheless, delineation of concrete goals and indicators of success provide a means of evaluating progress and weaknesses. Such monitoring should be a central component of law enforcement strategies for protected areas. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Trends in Motor Performance of First Graders: A Comparison of Cohorts from 2006 to 2015.

PubMed

Spengler, Sarah; Rabel, Matthias; Kuritz, Arvid Marius; Mess, Filip

2017-01-01

Motor performance is an important factor for health. Already in childhood, motor performance is associated with, e.g., obesity and risk factors for cardiovascular diseases. It is widely believed that the motor performance of children has declined over recent years. However, this belief is lacking clear evidence. The objective of this study was to examine trends in motor performance of first grade students during a period of 10 years (2006-2015). We examined trends in (a) aerobic fitness, (b) strength, (c) speed, and (d) balance for boys and girls separately and considered body mass index (BMI) as a potential confounder. From 2006 to 2015, we tested 5,001 first graders [50.8% boys; mean age 6.76 (0.56) years] of 18 primary schools in Germany. Each year between 441 and 552 students of the same schools were surveyed. Performance tests were taken from the Motorik-Module Study and the "German Motor Ability Test": "6-min run," "push-ups," "20-m sprint," and "static stand." Linear regression models were conducted for statistical analysis. A slightly negative trend in aerobic fitness performance was revealed in boys (β = -0.050; p  = 0.012) but not in girls. In the strength performance test no trend over time was detected. Performance in speed (boys: β = -0.094; girls: β = -0.143; p  ≤ 0.001) and balance tests (boys: β = -0.142; girls: β = -0.232; p  ≤ 0.001) increased over time for both boys and girls. These findings held true when BMI was considered. This study only partly supported the assumption that motor performance of children has declined: in our study, aerobic fitness declined (only in boys), while strength remained stable and speed and balance even increased in both sexes. Moreover, it seems as if BMI can explain changes in performance only to a small extent. Changed lifestyles might be a substantial cause. Further research on recent trends of motor performance and interacting variables is needed to support the results of our study and to provide more knowledge on causes of these trends.

The Difficulties of Online Learning for Indigenous Australian Students Living in Remote Communities--It's an Issue of Access

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anthony, Sarah G.; Keating, Michael S.

2013-01-01

Online learning and new technologies are driving a trend in worldwide education that is not only gaining momentum, it is becoming a juggernaut. While the positives for online learning are clear and are often being touted by Universities and Vocational Education and Training providers as a panacea for educational access, what is not clear is the…

New evidences of Roundup (glyphosate formulation) impact on the periphyton community and the water quality of freshwater ecosystems.

PubMed

Vera, María S; Lagomarsino, Leonardo; Sylvester, Matías; Pérez, Gonzalo L; Rodríguez, Patricia; Mugni, Hernán; Sinistro, Rodrigo; Ferraro, Marcela; Bonetto, Carlos; Zagarese, Horacio; Pizarro, Haydée

2010-04-01

Argentina is the second largest world producer of soybeans (after the USA) and along with the increase in planted surface and production in the country, glyphosate consumption has grown in the same way. We investigated the effects of Roundup (glyphosate formulation) on the periphyton colonization. The experiment was carried out over 42 days in ten outdoor mesocosms of different typology: "clear" waters with aquatic macrophytes and/or metaphyton and "turbid" waters with great occurrence of phytoplankton or suspended inorganic matter. The herbicide was added at 8 mg L(-1) of the active ingredient (glyphosate) in five mesocosms while five were left as controls (without Roundup addition). The estimate of the dissipation rate (k) of glyphosate showed a half-life value of 4.2 days. Total phosphorus significantly increased in treated mesocosms due to Roundup degradation what favored eutrophication process. Roundup produced a clear delay in periphytic colonization in treated mesocosms and values of the periphytic mass variables (dry weight, ash-free dry weight and chlorophyll a) were always higher in control mesocosms. Despite the mortality of algae, mainly diatoms, cyanobacteria was favored in treated mesocosms. It was observed that glyphosate produced a long term shift in the typology of mesocosms, "clear" turning to "turbid", which is consistent with the regional trend in shallow lakes in the Pampa plain of Argentina. Based on our findings it is clear that agricultural practices that involve the use of herbicides such as Roundup affect non-target organisms and the water quality, modifying the structure and functionality of freshwater ecosystems.

Parametric Investigation of Liquid Jets in Low Gravity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chato, David J.

2005-01-01

An axisymmetric phase field model is developed and used to model surface tension forces on liquid jets in microgravity. The previous work in this area is reviewed and a baseline drop tower experiment selected for model comparison. This paper uses the model to parametrically investigate the influence of key parameters on the geysers formed by jets in microgravity. Investigation of the contact angle showed the expected trend of increasing contact angle increasing geyser height. Investigation of the tank radius showed some interesting effects and demonstrated the zone of free surface deformation is quite large. Variation of the surface tension with a laminar jet showed clearly the evolution of free surface shape with Weber number. It predicted a breakthrough Weber number of 1.

Marketing healthcare: lessons for smaller hospitals.

PubMed

Chowdhary, N R

2000-02-01

Recently, I have noted ubiquitous trends that lead me to conclude that we are on the brink of a fundamental change in the structure of healthcare delivery. Hospitals are changing. The hospital, that enduring and pervasive organization, which for decades has delivered the vast majority of acute care services is being re-conceptualized. Administrators and executives in today's hospitals are beginning to recognize the disaffection of constituents and the necessity to change from placing their own agenda or that of their profession over the needs of the customer. A lesson that is increasingly being heeded, particularly by the leading hospitals, is that a belief in one's own importance or a feeling of invulnerability represents an anachronistic stance. No hospital today can afford to retain a view that it is more important than the patients it serves, or that it is invulnerable. The external pressures are already clear--the actors, factors and forces in the external environment are forcing hospitals to re-evaluate efficiency, effectiveness and delivery arrangements. The rise to prominence of the outcomes movement is part of this trend. The present study was an attempt to assess the practices and trends in the modern smaller hospitals as a part of their strategy to match the competitive pressures.

Luminous Efficiency Estimates of Meteors. II. Application to Canadian Automated Meteor Observatory Meteor Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subasinghe, Dilini; Campbell-Brown, Margaret

2018-02-01

Luminous efficiency is a necessary parameter for determining meteoroid mass from optical emission. Despite this importance, it is very poorly known, with previous results varying by up to two orders of magnitude for a given speed. We present the most recent study of luminous efficiency values determined with modern high-resolution instruments, by directly comparing dynamic and photometric meteoroid masses. Fifteen non-fragmenting meteoroids were used, with a further five clearly fragmenting events for comparison. Twelve of the fifteen non-fragmenting meteoroids had luminous efficiencies less than 1%, while the fragmenting meteoroids had upper limits of a few tens of per cent. No clear trend with speed was seen, but there was a weak negative trend of luminous efficiency on meteoroid mass, implying that smaller meteoroids radiate more efficiently.

Time trends of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in East China Seas: Response to the booming of PBDE pollution industry in China.

PubMed

Li, Yuanyuan; Lin, Tian; Hu, Limin; Feng, Jialiang; Guo, Zhigang

2016-01-01

The East China Seas (ECSs) are the receptors of the land-based persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) mainly from China through atmospheric deposition driven by the East Asian winter monsoon and fluvial discharge (e.g., Yangtze River and Yellow River), making the offshore sediments to be a good proxy to reconstruct history of those pollutants in China. In this work, four well-placed sediment cores were extracted from the mud areas in the ECSs, and the (210)Pb-dated cores were analyzed to yield historical concentration profiles of PBDEs in the area. The results showed that there was a persistent increase from 1970s and almost no clear sign in the decline of PBDEs until recently in China. More importantly, there was a faster increase of PBDEs from 1990s in China; while this period was just shown as gradually leveling off or even declining trends in developed countries. The persistently increasing trend of PBDEs in China since 1990s could be largely due to the booming of the manufacturing industry and unexpectedly transfer of PBDE pollution from developed countries to China. Besides, the relative high concentrations and fluxes of PBDEs in the core from coastal ECS located near a well-known electrical/electronic waste (e-waste) recycling area suggests an important contribution of PBDE emissions from recycling centers of e-waste in China. Although efforts in environmental monitoring of PBDE contamination have been substantially increased over the last decade, China is still lagging behind in terms of nationwide regulation of PBDE usage and treatment of disposal PBDE-containing products. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mapping Investments and Published Outputs in Norovirus Research: A Systematic Analysis of Research Funded in the United States and United Kingdom During 1997–2013

PubMed Central

Head, Michael G.; Fitchett, Joseph R.; Lichtman, Amos B.; Soyode, Damilola T.; Harris, Jennifer N.; Atun, Rifat

2016-01-01

Background. Norovirus accounts for a considerable portion of the global disease burden. Mapping national or international investments relating to norovirus research is limited. Methods. We analyzed the focus and type of norovirus research funding awarded to institutions in the United States and United Kingdom during 1997–2013. Data were obtained from key public and philanthropic funders across both countries, and norovirus-related research was identified from study titles and abstracts. Included studies were further categorized by the type of scientific investigation, and awards related to vaccine, diagnostic, and therapeutic research were identified. Norovirus publication trends are also described using data from Scopus. Results. In total, US and United Kingdom funding investment for norovirus research was £97.6 million across 349 awards; 326 awards (amount, £84.9 million) were received by US institutions, and 23 awards (£12.6 million) were received by United Kingdom institutions. Combined, £81.2 million of the funding (83.2%) was for preclinical research, and £16.4 million (16.8%) was for translational science. Investments increased from £1.7 million in 1997 to £11.8 million in 2013. Publication trends showed a consistent temporal increase from 48 in 1997 to 182 in 2013. Conclusions. Despite increases over time, trends in US and United Kingdom funding for norovirus research clearly demonstrate insufficient translational research and limited investment in diagnostics, therapeutics, or vaccine research. PMID:26744430

Prescription drug advertising: trends and implications.

PubMed

Krupka, L R; Vener, A M

1985-01-01

Prescription drug advertisements which appeared in two leading American medical journals in 1972, 1977 and 1982 were analyzed to discover possible trends in advertising. The 5016 ads examined showed that ads for the diuretic-cardiovasculars, especially the beta-adrenergic blocking agents and the slow channel inhibitors, as well as the analgesics, had increased, while ads for the anti-infectives and tranquilizers had diminished. The average amount of space allocated for each ad had increased. On the average, most ads (69%) depicted neither male nor female patients in their graphics, and a trend of increased neutrality was observed. When the hormones were excluded, an average of 21% of the ads showed male patients and 10% showed females. Since a relationship was discerned between the leading drugs advertised and the leading prescriptions filled, it was concluded that advertising does have some effect on the prescribing behavior of practitioners. The findings suggest that great investment in advertising is necessary in order to achieve high levels of sales for such drugs as Valium (diazepam) which do not have a clear-cut ameliorative effect on a specific physiological condition. On the other hand, it was suggested that saturation advertising would not significantly enhance the sales of such drugs as Dyazide (triamterene and hydrochlorothiazide) because of its well established therapeutic value in the control of hypertension. Ten advertising companies, on the average, had purchased 67% of all advertising space and five had purchased almost half (47%). The same two pharmaceutical companies were among the top five advertisers and the same five were among the top ten for the three years studied.

Mapping Investments and Published Outputs in Norovirus Research: A Systematic Analysis of Research Funded in the United States and United Kingdom During 1997-2013.

PubMed

Head, Michael G; Fitchett, Joseph R; Lichtman, Amos B; Soyode, Damilola T; Harris, Jennifer N; Atun, Rifat

2016-02-01

Norovirus accounts for a considerable portion of the global disease burden. Mapping national or international investments relating to norovirus research is limited. We analyzed the focus and type of norovirus research funding awarded to institutions in the United States and United Kingdom during 1997-2013. Data were obtained from key public and philanthropic funders across both countries, and norovirus-related research was identified from study titles and abstracts. Included studies were further categorized by the type of scientific investigation, and awards related to vaccine, diagnostic, and therapeutic research were identified. Norovirus publication trends are also described using data from Scopus. In total, US and United Kingdom funding investment for norovirus research was £97.6 million across 349 awards; 326 awards (amount, £84.9 million) were received by US institutions, and 23 awards (£12.6 million) were received by United Kingdom institutions. Combined, £81.2 million of the funding (83.2%) was for preclinical research, and £16.4 million (16.8%) was for translational science. Investments increased from £1.7 million in 1997 to £11.8 million in 2013. Publication trends showed a consistent temporal increase from 48 in 1997 to 182 in 2013. Despite increases over time, trends in US and United Kingdom funding for norovirus research clearly demonstrate insufficient translational research and limited investment in diagnostics, therapeutics, or vaccine research. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatial and temporal variations of thunderstorm activities over Sri Lanka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sonnadara, Upul

2016-05-01

Spatial and temporal variation of frequencies of thunderstorms over Sri Lanka using thunder day data is presented. A thunder day is simply a calendar day in which thunder is heard at least once at a given location. Two sets of data were collected and analyzed: annual totals for 10 climatological stations for a period of 50 years and monthly totals for 20 climatological stations for a period of 20 years. The average annual thunder days over Sri Lanka was found to be 76. Among the climatological stations considered, a high number of annual thunder days was recorded in Ratnapura (150 days/year), followed by Colombo (108 days/year) and Bandarawela (106 days/year). It appears that there are no widespread long-term increasing or decreasing trends in thunderstorm frequencies. However, Colombo, the capital of Sri Lanka which has over two million people shows an increasing trend of 0.8 thunder days per year. Although there is a high variability between stations reporting the number of thunder days, the overall pattern within a year is clear. Thunderstorm frequencies are high during two periods: March-May and September-November, which coincide with the first inter-monsoon and second inter-monsoon periods. Compared to the dry zone, the wet zone, especially the southwestern region, has high thunderstorm activity. There is a clear spatial difference in thunderstorm activities during the southwest and northeast monsoon seasons. During both these seasons, enhanced thunderstorm activities are reported on the leeward side of the mountain range. A slight reduction in the thunderstorm activities was found in the high elevation areas of the hill country compared to the surrounding areas. A lightning ground flash density map derived using annual thunder days is also presented.

Trends in the suspended-sediment yields of coastal rivers of northern California, 1955–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Warrick, J.A.; Madej, Mary Ann; Goñi, M. A.; Wheatcroft, R.A.

2013-01-01

Time-dependencies of suspended-sediment discharge from six coastal watersheds of northern California – Smith River, Klamath River, Trinity River, Redwood Creek, Mad River, and Eel River – were evaluated using monitoring data from 1955 to 2010. Suspended-sediment concentrations revealed time-dependent hysteresis and multi-year trends. The multi-year trends had two primary patterns relative to river discharge: (i) increases in concentration resulting from both land clearing from logging and the flood of record during December 1964 (water year 1965), and (ii) continual decreases in concentration during the decades following this flood. Data from the Eel River revealed that changes in suspended-sediment concentrations occurred for all grain-size fractions, but were most pronounced for the sand fraction. Because of these changes, the use of bulk discharge-concentration relationships (i.e., “sediment rating curves”) without time-dependencies in these relationships resulted in substantial errors in sediment load estimates, including 2.5-fold over-prediction of Eel River sediment loads since 1979. We conclude that sediment discharge and sediment discharge relationships (such as sediment rating curves) from these coastal rivers have varied substantially with time in response to land use and climate. Thus, the use of historical river sediment data and sediment rating curves without considerations for time-dependent trends may result in significant errors in sediment yield estimates from the globally-important steep, small watersheds.

Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in air and soil from a high-altitude pasture in the Italian Alps: evidence of CB-209 contamination.

PubMed

Tremolada, Paolo; Guazzoni, Niccolò; Comolli, Roberto; Parolini, Marco; Lazzaro, Serena; Binelli, Andrea

2015-12-01

This study analyses the seasonal trend of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) concentrations in air and soil from a high-altitude mountain pasture in the Italian Alps. PCB concentrations in soil were generally comparable to background levels and were lower than those previously measured in the same area. Only CB-209 unexpectedly showed high concentrations with respect to the other congeners. GC-MS-MS identification was very clear, rising a new problem of increasing PCB contamination concerning only CB-209, which is not present in commercial mixtures used in the past in Italy and Europe. Considering all of the congeners, seasonal PCB trends were observed both in air and in soil that were related to the temperature and precipitation measured specifically in the study area. Highly significant relationships were found between the temperature-normalised concentrations in soil and the precipitation amounts. A north/south enrichment factor was present only in soil with rapid early summer re-volatilisation kinetics from soil to air and autumn re-deposition events from air to soil. Fugacity ratio calculations confirmed these trends. Surface soils respond rapidly to meteorological variables, while subsurface soils respond much more slowly. Seasonal trends were different for the northern and southern sides of the mountain. A detailed picture of the interactions among temperature, precipitation, mountain aspects and soil features was obtained.

Evaluating compression or expansion of morbidity in Canada: trends in life expectancy and health-adjusted life expectancy from 1994 to 2010

PubMed Central

Colin, Steensma; Lidia, Loukine; Bernard, C. K. Choi

2017-01-01

Introduction: The objective of this study was to investigate whether morbidity in Canada, at the national and provincial levels, is compressing or expanding by tracking trends in life expectancy (LE) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) from 1994 to 2010. “Compression” refers to a decrease in the proportion of life spent in an unhealthy state over time. It happens when HALE increases faster than LE. “Expansion” refers to an increase in the proportion of life spent in an unhealthy state that happens when HALE is stable or increases more slowly than LE. Methods: We estimated LE using mortality and population data from Statistics Canada. We took health-related quality of life (i.e. morbidity) data used to calculate HALE from the National Population Health Survey (1994–1999) and the Canadian Community Health Survey (2000–2010). We built abridged life tables for seven time intervals, covering the period 1994 to 2010 and corresponding to the year of each available survey cycle, for females and males, and for each of the 10 Canadian provinces. National and provincial trends were assessed at birth, and at ages 20 years and 65 years. Results: We observed an overall average annual increase in HALE that was statistically significant in both Canadian females and males at each of the three ages assessed, with the exception of females at birth. At birth, HALE increased an average of 0.2% (p = .08) and 0.3% (p < .001) annually for females and males respectively over the 1994 to 2010 period. At the national level for all three age groups, we observed a statistically nonsignificant average annual increase in the proportion of life spent in an unhealthy state, with the exception of men at age 65, who experienced a non-significant decrease. At the provincial level at birth, we observed a significant increase in proportion of life spent in an unhealthy state for Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) and Prince Edward Island (PEI). Conclusion: Our study did not detect a clear overall trend in compression or expansion of morbidity from 1994 to 2010 at the national level in Canada. However, our results suggested an expansion of morbidity in NL and PEI. Our study indicates the importance of continued tracking of the secular trends of life expectancy and HALE in Canada in order to verify the presence of compression or expansion of morbidity. Further study should be undertaken to understand what is driving the observed expansion of morbidity in NL and in PEI. PMID:28273034

Lytic to temperate switching of viral communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, B.; Silveira, C. B.; Bailey, B. A.; Barott, K.; Cantu, V. A.; Cobián-Güemes, A. G.; Coutinho, F. H.; Dinsdale, E. A.; Felts, B.; Furby, K. A.; George, E. E.; Green, K. T.; Gregoracci, G. B.; Haas, A. F.; Haggerty, J. M.; Hester, E. R.; Hisakawa, N.; Kelly, L. W.; Lim, Y. W.; Little, M.; Luque, A.; McDole-Somera, T.; McNair, K.; de Oliveira, L. S.; Quistad, S. D.; Robinett, N. L.; Sala, E.; Salamon, P.; Sanchez, S. E.; Sandin, S.; Silva, G. G. Z.; Smith, J.; Sullivan, C.; Thompson, C.; Vermeij, M. J. A.; Youle, M.; Young, C.; Zgliczynski, B.; Brainard, R.; Edwards, R. A.; Nulton, J.; Thompson, F.; Rohwer, F.

2016-03-01

Microbial viruses can control host abundances via density-dependent lytic predator-prey dynamics. Less clear is how temperate viruses, which coexist and replicate with their host, influence microbial communities. Here we show that virus-like particles are relatively less abundant at high host densities. This suggests suppressed lysis where established models predict lytic dynamics are favoured. Meta-analysis of published viral and microbial densities showed that this trend was widespread in diverse ecosystems ranging from soil to freshwater to human lungs. Experimental manipulations showed viral densities more consistent with temperate than lytic life cycles at increasing microbial abundance. An analysis of 24 coral reef viromes showed a relative increase in the abundance of hallmark genes encoded by temperate viruses with increased microbial abundance. Based on these four lines of evidence, we propose the Piggyback-the-Winner model wherein temperate dynamics become increasingly important in ecosystems with high microbial densities; thus ‘more microbes, fewer viruses’.

Spatio-temporal analysis of agricultural land-use intensity across the Western Siberian grain belt.

PubMed

Kühling, Insa; Broll, Gabriele; Trautz, Dieter

2016-02-15

The Western Siberian grain belt covers 1millionkm² in Asiatic Russia and is of global importance for agriculture. Massive land-use changes took place in that region after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the collapse of the state farm system. Decreasing land-use intensity (LUI) in post-Soviet Western Siberia was observed on grassland due to declining livestock whilst on cropland trends of land abandonment reversed in the early 2000s. Recultivation of abandoned cropland as well as increasing fertilizer inputs and narrowing crop rotations led to increasing LUI on cropland during the last two decades. Beyond that general trend, no information is available about spatial distribution and magnitude but a crucial precondition for the development of strategies for sustainable land management. To quantify changes and patterns in LUI, we developed an intensity index that reflects the impacts of land-based agricultural production. Based on subnational yearly statistical data, we calculated two separate input-orientated indices for cropland and grassland, respectively. The indices were applied on two spatial scale: at seven provinces covering the Western Siberian grain belt (Altay Kray, Chelyabinsk, Kurgan, Novosibirsk, Omsk, Sverdlovsk and Tyumen) and at all districts of the central province Tyumen. The spatio-temporal analysis clearly showed opposite trends for the two land-use types: decreasing intensity on grassland (-0.015 LUI units per year) and intensification on cropland (+0.014 LUI units per year). Furthermore, a spatial concentration towards intensity centres occurred during transition from a planned to a market economy. A principal component analysis enabled the individual calculations of both land-use types to be combined and revealed a strong link between biophysical conditions and LUI. The findings clearly showed the need for having a different strategy for future sustainable land management for grassland (predominantly used by livestock of households) and cropland (predominantly managed by large agricultural enterprises), which have to be addressed specifically by the different land users. As all input data are publicly available, the approach described is readily transferable to other regions or countries of the former Soviet Union. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ozone trends over the United States at different times of day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai; He, Cenlin

2018-01-01

In the United States, the decline of summertime daytime peak ozone in the last 20 years has been clearly connected to reductions in anthropogenic emissions. However, questions remain about how and through what mechanisms ozone at other times of day have changed over recent decades. Here we analyze the interannual variability and trends of ozone at different hours of day, using observations from about 1000 US sites during 1990-2014. We find a clear diurnal cycle both in the magnitude of ozone trends and in the relative importance of climate variability versus anthropogenic emissions to ozone changes. Interannual climate variability has mainly been associated with the detrended fluctuation in the US annual daytime ozone over 1990-2014, with a much smaller effect on the nighttime ozone. Reductions in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides have led to substantial growth in the US annual average nighttime ozone due to reduced ozone titration, while the summertime daytime ozone has declined. Environmental policymaking might consider further improvements to reduce ozone levels at night and other non-peak hours.

Anthocyanin Profile in Berries of Wild and Cultivated Vaccinium spp. along Altitudinal Gradients in the Alps.

PubMed

Zoratti, Laura; Jaakola, Laura; Häggman, Hely; Giongo, Lara

2015-10-07

Vaccinium spp. berries provide some of the best natural sources of anthocyanins. In the wild bilberry (Vaccinium myrtillus L.), a clear increasing trend in anthocyanin biosynthesis has been reported toward northern latitudes of Europe, but studies related to altitude have given contradictory results. The present study focused on the anthocyanin composition in wild bilberries and highbush blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L. cv. Brigitta Blue) growing along altitudinal gradients in the Alps of northern Italy. Our results indicate an increasing accumulation of anthocyanins in bilberries along an altitudinal gradient of about 650 m. The accumulation was due to a significant increase in delphinidin and malvidin glycosides, whereas the accumulation of cyanidin and peonidin glycosides was not affected by altitude. Seasonal differences, especially temperature, had a major influence on the accumulation of anthocyanins in blueberries.

Trends in market share of leading cigarette brands in the USA: national survey on drug use and health 2002-2013.

PubMed

Sharma, Anushree; Fix, Brian V; Delnevo, Cristine; Cummings, K Michael; O'Connor, Richard J

2016-01-29

The main objective of this study is to examine trends in market share for leading cigarette brands, both before (2002-2008) and after (2009-2013) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulation of tobacco products.Design Data come from the annual National Survey on Drug Use and Health from 2002 through 2013. Descriptive statistics, cross tabulations, and logistic regression were employed. Data were weighted to the US population and adjusted for cigarette consumption. Our analysis is restricted to 164,343 current cigarette smokers who were at least 12 years of age or older, had smoked at least one cigarette in the 30 days prior to the survey, and reported a usual cigarette brand at the time of the survey. Over 12 years, 14 brands comprised over 77% of the cigarette market. Marlboro consistently held over 38% of the market. Newport held the second highest market share, and increased from 7.2% in 2002 to 10.9% by 2013. Market share of Pall Mall grew by over 400% (1.7% in 2002 vs 8.9% in 2013), likely aided by the 2009 Federal excise tax increase. No clear associations of changes in market share with the implementation of FDA's regulatory authority over tobacco in 2009 were noted. Tracking market share trends offers clues about brand marketing changing preferences of consumers. Rapidly growing cigarette brands should be monitored to determine if specific marketing practices or design changes are drivers, as these could represent public health concerns. Monitoring trends in cigarette market share could inform regulatory decision-making efforts related to marketing and advertising. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Trends in market share of leading cigarette brands in the USA: national survey on drug use and health 2002–2013

PubMed Central

Sharma, Anushree; Fix, Brian V; Delnevo, Cristine; Cummings, K Michael; O'Connor, Richard J

2016-01-01

Objectives The main objective of this study is to examine trends in market share for leading cigarette brands, both before (2002–2008) and after (2009–2013) Food and Drug Administration (FDA) regulation of tobacco products. Design Data come from the annual National Survey on Drug Use and Health from 2002 through 2013. Descriptive statistics, cross tabulations, and logistic regression were employed. Data were weighted to the US population and adjusted for cigarette consumption. Our analysis is restricted to 164 343 current cigarette smokers who were at least 12 years of age or older, had smoked at least one cigarette in the 30 days prior to the survey, and reported a usual cigarette brand at the time of the survey. Results Over 12 years, 14 brands comprised over 77% of the cigarette market. Marlboro consistently held over 38% of the market. Newport held the second highest market share, and increased from 7.2% in 2002 to 10.9% by 2013. Market share of Pall Mall grew by over 400% (1.7% in 2002 vs 8.9% in 2013), likely aided by the 2009 Federal excise tax increase. No clear associations of changes in market share with the implementation of FDA's regulatory authority over tobacco in 2009 were noted. Conclusions Tracking market share trends offers clues about brand marketing changing preferences of consumers. Rapidly growing cigarette brands should be monitored to determine if specific marketing practices or design changes are drivers, as these could represent public health concerns. Monitoring trends in cigarette market share could inform regulatory decision-making efforts related to marketing and advertising. PMID:26826144

Spreading a Medical Home Redesign: Effects on Emergency Department Use and Hospital Admissions

PubMed Central

Reid, Robert J.; Johnson, Eric A.; Hsu, Clarissa; Ehrlich, Kelly; Coleman, Katie; Trescott, Claire; Erikson, Michael; Ross, Tyler R.; Liss, David T.; Cromp, DeAnn; Fishman, Paul A.

2013-01-01

PURPOSE The patient-centered medical home (PCMH) is being rapidly deployed in many settings to strengthen US primary care, improve quality, and control costs; however, evidence supporting this transformation is still lacking. We describe the Group Health experience in attempting to replicate the effects on health care use seen in a PCMH prototype clinic via a systemwide spread using Lean as the change strategy. METHODS We used an interrupted time series analysis with a patient-month unit of analysis over a 4-year period that included baseline, implementation, and stabilization periods for 412,943 patients. To account for secular trends across these periods, we compared changes in use of face-to-face primary care visits, emergency department visits, and inpatient admissions with those of a nonequivalent comparison group of patients served by community network practices. RESULTS After accounting for secular trends among network patients, patients empaneled to the PCMH clinics had 5.1% and 6.7% declines in primary care office visits in early and later stabilization years, respectively, after the implementation year. This trend was accompanied by a 123% increase in the use of secure electronic message threads and a 20% increase in telephone encounters. Declines were also seen in emergency department visits at 1 and 2 years (13.7% and 18.5%) compared with what would be expected based on secular trends in network practices. No statistically significant changes were found for hospital admissions. CONCLUSIONS The Group Health experience shows it is possible to reduce emergency department use with PCMH transformation across a diverse set of clinics using a clear change strategy (Lean) and sufficient resources and supports. PMID:23690382

Incidence trends of human papillomavirus-related head and neck cancer in Taiwan, 1995-2009.

PubMed

Hwang, Tzer-Zen; Hsiao, Jenn-Ren; Tsai, Chia-Rung; Chang, Jeffrey S

2015-07-15

Recent studies suggested that human papillomavirus (HPV) is an emerging risk factor of head and neck cancer (HNC), particularly for oropharyngeal cancer. Studies from the West showed a rising trend of HPV-related HNC despite a decrease of the overall HNC incidence. In contrast, the overall HNC incidence in Taiwan has continued to rise. It is not clear whether the incidence trends of HPV-related HNC in Taiwan have a similar pattern to those from countries with an overall decreasing incidence of HNC. This study examined the incidence trends of HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNC in Taiwan using data from the Taiwan Cancer Registry. Our results showed that the incidence trends of HPV-related and HPV-unrelated HNC in Taiwan both rose during 1995-2009. The incidence of HPV-related HNC (1.3 per 100,000 in 1995 to 3.3 in 2009, annual percentage change (APC) = 6.9, p < 0.0001) rose more rapidly than the incidence of HPV-unrelated HNC (10.4 per 100,000 in 1995 to 21.7 in 2009, APC = 5.0, p < 0.0001). The rising trend of HPV-related HNC was particularly prominent for HNC occurring in tonsil (APC = 8.2, p < 0.0001), in men (APC = 7.5, p < 0.0001), and in those aged between 40 and 50 years (APC = 8.5, p < 0.0001). Although the overall incidence of HNC in Taiwan has continued to increase, the most rapid rise is in the HPV-related HNC. This suggests that similar to the Western world, HPV-related HNC is becoming an important public health issue in Taiwan. © 2014 UICC.

Occupational injuries in Italy: risk factors and long term trend (1951-98)

PubMed Central

Fabiano, B; Curro, F; Pastorino, R

2001-01-01

OBJECTIVES—Trends in the rates of total injuries and fatal accidents in the different sectors of Italian industries were explored during the period 1951-98. Causes and dynamics of injury were also studied for setting priorities for improving safety standards.
METHODS—Data on occupational injuries from the National Organisation for Labour Injury Insurance were combined with data from the State Statistics Institute to highlight the interaction between the injury frequency index trend and the production cycle—that is, the evolution of industrial production throughout the years. Multiple regression with log transformed rates was adopted to model the trends of occupational fatalities for each industrial group.
RESULTS—The ratios between the linked indices of injury frequency and industrial production showed a good correlation over the whole period. A general decline in injuries was found across all sectors, with values ranging from 79.86% in the energy group to 23.32% in the textile group. In analysing fatalities, the trend seemed to be more clearly decreasing than the trend of total injuries, including temporary and permanent disabilities; the fatalities showed an exponential decrease according to multiple regression, with an annual decline equal to 4.42%.
CONCLUSIONS—The overall probability of industrial fatal accidents in Italy tended to decrease exponentially by year. The most effective actions in preventing injuries were directed towards fatal accidents. By analysing the rates of fatal accident in the different sectors, appropriate targets and priorities for increased strategies to prevent injuries can be suggested. The analysis of the dynamics and the material causes of injuries showed that still more consideration should be given to human and organisational factors.


Keywords: labour injuries; severity; regression model PMID:11303083

Recent changes in ecologically-relevant streamflows in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ficklin, D. L.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Knouft, J.; Robeson, S. M.

2017-12-01

The streamflow regime is a primary regulator of the composition and functioning of freshwater ecosystems. Growth, behavior, and/or reproduction of most freshwater organisms are influenced in some way by the amount of water, including high and low flows, and seasonal fluctuations in water availability in a particular habitat. This work examines trends in ecologically-relevant measures of streamflows from 1980-2015 for over 3,000 streamflow gauges located throughout Canada and United States. Specifically, we examine trends in water year mean flow and variability, as well as trends in high (95th and 99th percentile), low (1st and 5th percentile), and 7- and 3-day maximum and minimum streamflows. The results indicate a clear regional delineation of significant increases of ecologically-relevant streamflows in the northern Central Plains/south-central Canada, upper Midwest (except Michigan and Wisconsin) and northeastern United States/southeastern Canada, while significant decreases are found throughout the southeastern and southwestern United States. The regional agreement between streamflow trends in regulated and unregulated watersheds indicate a widespread climatic influence that is not masked by human alteration of streamflows. We explore the degree to which climate factors explain both interannual variability and observed trends in streamflow to better elucidate the role of top-down climate drivers versus bottom-up land surface drivers on recent trends in ecologically-relevant streamflow. We also explore how these changes in streamflow are affecting water quality such as water temperature and sediment concentration. This type of analysis will aid in highlighting streamflow regions in the United States that are currently sensitive to changes in climate, but may also aid in understanding which regions may be sensitive to future climatic changes.

Establishing a ultraviolet radiation observational network and enhancing the study on ultraviolet radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Jianhui; Wang, Gengchen

2003-09-01

On the basis of analyzing observational data on solar radiation, meteorological parameters, and total ozone amount for the period of January 1990 to December 1991 in the Beijing area, an empirical calculation method for ultraviolet radiation (UV) in clear sky is obtained. The results show that the calculated values agree well with the observed, with maximum relative bias of 6.2% and mean relative bias for 24 months of 1.9%. Good results are also obtained when this method is applied in Guangzhou and Mohe districts. The long-term variation of UV radiation in clear sky over the Beijing area from 1979 to 1998 is calculated, and the UV variation trends and causes are discussed: direct and indirect UV energy absorption by increasing pollutants in the troposphere may have caused the UV decrease in clear sky in the last 20 years. With the enhancement of people’s quality of life and awareness of health, it will be valuable and practical to provid UV forecasts for typical cities and rural areas. So, we should develop and enhance UV study in systematic monitoring, forecasting, and developing a good and feasible method for UV radiation reporting in China, especially for big cities.

Monitoring of the active layer at Kapp Linne', SVALBARD 1972-2002

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akerman, J.

2003-04-01

The active layer has been monitored at ten sites in the vicinity of Kapp Linné, (78o03'42" 13o37'07") Svalbard during the period 1972 - 2002. The ten sites differ in elevation, distance from the sea, vegetation cover, substrate and active periglacial processes. From 1994 the International permafrost Association "CALM" standard grids, with measurement within 100x100m squares, has been applied. Microclimate and soil temperatures have been monitored by data logger covering levels form 2 m above to 7m below the ground. The macroclimate is covered by complete data series from the nearby weather station at Kapp Linne’, covering the period 1912 to 2002. A number of periglacial processes, especially slope processes, are monitored parallel with the active layer. The mean active layer for the sites varies between 1,13m and 0,43m. The deepest active layer is found in the exposed, well drained raised beach ridges and the shallowest in the bogs. The interannual variability during the observation period do not correlate well with the MAAT but better with the summer climate, June - August mean or DDT. The data clearly illustrate colder summers during the period 1972 to 1983 and after that steadily increasing summer temperatures. The active layer follows the same general pattern with good correlations. There are several surface indications as a response to the deepening active layer especially in the bogs. Thermokarst scars appear frequently and a majority of the palsa like mounds and pounus have disappeared. A drastic change in the vegetation on the bogs has also occurred, from dry heath to wet Carex vegetation. In summary the observations from Kapp Linne’ are; 1. A clear trend towards milder summers, 2. A clear trend towards deeper active layers, 3. All sites show a similar pattern, 4. The bogs are getting strikingly wetter, 5. Mounds in the bog sites are disappearing, 6. The slow slope processes are getting accelerated, 7. Thermokarst depressions and scars are appearing in a small scale at all sites, 8. Soil temperatures are increasing at all levels down to 7 m.

Analysis of near-surface biases in ERA-Interim over the Canadian Prairies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Alan K.; Beljaars, Anton C. M.

2017-09-01

We quantify the biases in the diurnal cycle of temperature in ERA-Interim for both warm and cold season using hourly climate station data for four stations in Saskatchewan from 1979 to 2006. The warm season biases increase as opaque cloud cover decreases, and change substantially from April to October. The bias in mean temperature increases almost monotonically from small negative values in April to small positive values in the fall. Under clear skies, the bias in maximum temperature is of the order of -1°C in June and July, and -2°C in spring and fall; while the bias in minimum temperature increases almost monotonically from +1°C in spring to +2.5°C in October. The bias in the diurnal temperature range falls under clear skies from -2.5°C in spring to -5°C in fall. The cold season biases with surface snow have a different structure. The biases in maximum, mean and minimum temperature with a stable BL reach +1°C, +2.6°C and +3°C respectively in January under clear skies. The cold season bias in diurnal range increases from about -1.8°C in the fall to positive values in March. These diurnal biases in 2 m temperature and their seasonal trends are consistent with a high bias in both the diurnal and seasonal amplitude of the model ground heat flux, and a warm season daytime bias resulting from the model fixed leaf area index. Our results can be used as bias corrections in agricultural modeling that use these reanalysis data, and also as a framework for understanding model biases.

Apportionment of particulate matter sources in the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gioda, A.; Mateus, V.; Ventura, L.; Amaral, B.

2013-05-01

Continuous monitoring of particulate matter (PM) is extremely important in order to observe possible trends and take measures to reduce emissions. In Brazil, few cities have network stations, which make these measurements even more crucial. Furthermore, there is a need to update and create new standards of air quality, which can only be done based on a suitable inventory. Levels of total suspended particles (TSP), PM10 and PM2.5 were monitored in the Metropolitan area of Rio de Janeiro. Mean concentrations of TSP, PM10 and PM2.5 were 70, 60 and 14 μg/m3, respectively. Some of the monitored sampling points exceeded the Brazilian guidelines for PM10 (50 μg/m3) and TSP (80 μg/m3). However, the PM2.5 levels measured in the present study are of extreme concern, since they exceeded the guideline suggested by the World Health Organization (WHO - 10 μg/m3) in almost all the study sites. The average PM2.5/PM10 ratios ranged from 0.1 to 0.3, being more dependent on traffic emissions, while PM10/PTS ratios ranged from 0.6 to 0.7. The particles were composed mainly of soil elements (~50%) and ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate (20-40%), which are recognized as secondary inorganic aerosols. Rural areas and sites near the ocean presented the lowest levels for all particle sizes. This is probably due to an enhanced dispersion of the particles by the sea breeze. On the other hand, higher PM concentrations were observed for the sites near industrial areas and heavy traffic, as expected. The monthly distribution profile observed for PM showed clear increases in PM levels from May to September at all stations. This increase is due to the stagnation of the air during winter, which is related to meteorological processes such as low relative humidity and low rainfall. Consequently, due to this stagnation pollutant concentrations show increases. According to the dataset from the Unified Health System there is a clear trend of increased hospitalizations for respiratory diseases in winter, when increased concentrations of PM are observed, which was verified in this study.

Climate Trend Detection using Sea-Surface Temperature Data-sets from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR Space Sensors.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Llewellyn-Jones, D. T.; Corlett, G. K.; Remedios, J. J.; Noyes, E. J.; Good, S. A.

2007-05-01

Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) is an important indicator of global change, designated by GCOS as an essential Climate Variable (ECV). The detection of trends in Global SST requires rigorous measurements that are not only global, but also highly accurate and consistent. Space instruments can provide the means to achieve these required attributes in SST data. This paper presents an analysis of 15 years of SST data from two independent data sets, generated from the (A)ATSR and AVHRR series of sensors respectively. The analyses reveal trends of increasing global temperature between 0.13°C to 0.18 °C, per decade, closely matching that expected from some current predictions. A high level of consistency in the results from the two independent observing systems is seen, which gives increased confidence in data from both systems and also enables comparative analyses of the accuracy and stability of both data sets to be carried out. The conclusion is that these satellite SST data-sets provide important means to quantify and explore the processes of climate change. An analysis based upon singular value decomposition, allowing the removal of gross transitory disturbances, notably the El Niño, in order to examine regional areas of change other than the tropical Pacific, is also presented. Interestingly, although El Niño events clearly affect SST globally, they are found to have a non- significant (within error) effect on the calculated trends, which changed by only 0.01 K/decade when the pattern of El Niño and the associated variations was removed from the SST record. Although similar global trends were calculated for these two independent data sets, larger regional differences are noted. Evidence of decreased temperatures after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991 was also observed. The methodology demonstrated here can be applied to other data-sets, which cover long time-series observations of geophysical observations in order to characterise long-term change.

Short-stay rural and remote placements in dental education, an effective model for rural exposure: a review of eight-year experience in Western Australia.

PubMed

Kruger, Estie; Tennant, Marc

2010-08-01

The increase in demand for dental care over the next 10 years is expected to outstrip the supply of dental visits in Australia, resulting in an ongoing shortage of dental practitioners. As trends in medicine have shown, the greatest effect will be felt in rural and remote regions, where an undersupply of dentists already exists. It is clearly evident that it is important to provide strategies that will increase the recruitment and retention of practitioners in rural and remote areas. Previous research suggested an increased likelihood for health graduates to choose rural practice if they have a rural background, or were exposed to rural practice during their education. Short-stay (three to four weeks) placements for final-year dental students has been part of dental education in Western Australia for near on a decade. This paper reflects on the experiences gained from managing this placement program. Short-stay placements are a quality learning initiative but need a high level of planning and a clear vision to be effective. The key factors in ensuring sustainable, student centred learning is driven through a small core group of staff who have strong direct links with rural and remote communities, students and support providers. The integration of service, education and research goals have played a critical role in sustaining placements. The philosophy underpinning the rural placements needs to be clearly articulated and applied effectively in each step of their implementation and a highly focused customer-service driven implementation is required to make short-stay rural and remote placements effective.

Optical coherence tomography of the effects of stromal hydration on clear corneal incision architecture.

PubMed

Calladine, Daniel; Tanner, Vaughan

2009-08-01

To evaluate the effects of stromal hydration on clear corneal incision (CCI) architecture immediately after surgery using anterior segment optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT). Department of Ophthalmology, Royal Berkshire Hospital, Reading, United Kingdom. Clear corneal incisions in adult eyes were examined using a Visante AS-OCT imaging system within 1 hour of surgery. Half the CCIs had stromal hydration with a balanced salt solution and half did not. Incisions were made with a 2.75 mm steel keratome. Intraocular pressure (IOP) was measured within 90 minutes after surgery. The CCI length and corneal thickness at the CCI site were measured using software built into the AS-OCT system. Thirty CCIs were evaluated. Stromal hydration significantly increased the measured CCI length (P<.05, t test); this was the result of a trend toward increased corneal thickness at the CCI site with hydration (P<.1, t test). The mean CCI length was 1.69 mm +/- 0.27 (SD) (range 1.31 to 2.32 mm) with hydration and 1.51 +/- 0.23 mm (range 1.30 to 1.95 mm) without hydration. The mean IOP was 20.9 +/- 8.18 mm Hg and 15.8 +/- 8.20 mm Hg, respectively. The IOP tended to be higher with hydration (P<.1, t test). Local detachment of Descemet membrane was more likely with stromal hydration (63%) than without (25%). Stromal hydration significantly increased CCI length and tended to leave the eye with a higher early postoperative IOP, showing the importance of taking stromal hydration into account when designing similar OCT studies of CCI architecture.

An Overview of Methods for Monitoring Social Disparities in Cancer with an Example Using Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence by Area-Socioeconomic Position and Race-Ethnicity, 1992–2004

PubMed Central

Harper, Sam; Lynch, John; Meersman, Stephen C.; Breen, Nancy; Davis, William W.; Reichman, Marsha E.

2008-01-01

The authors provide an overview of methods for summarizing social disparities in health using the example of lung cancer. They apply four measures of relative disparity and three measures of absolute disparity to trends in US lung cancer incidence by area-socioeconomic position and race-ethnicity from 1992 to 2004. Among females, measures of absolute and relative disparity suggested that area-socioeconomic and race-ethnic disparities increased over these 12 years but differed widely with respect to the magnitude of the change. Among males, the authors found substantial disagreement among summary measures of relative disparity with respect to the magnitude and the direction of change in disparities. Among area-socioeconomic groups, the index of disparity increased by 47% and the relative concentration index decreased by 116%, while for race-ethnicity the index of disparity increased by 36% and the Theil index increased by 13%. The choice of a summary measure of disparity may affect the interpretation of changes in health disparities. Important issues to consider are the reference point from which differences are measured, whether to measure disparity on the absolute or relative scale, and whether to weight disparity measures by population size. A suite of indicators is needed to provide a clear picture of health disparity change. PMID:18344513

Relationships between oxygen fugacity and metasomatism in the Kaapvaal subcratonic mantle, represented by garnet peridotite xenoliths in the Wesselton kimberlite, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanger, Brendan J.; Yaxley, Gregory M.; Berry, Andrew J.; Kamenetsky, Vadim S.

2015-01-01

A suite of 12 peridotite xenoliths from the Wesselton kimberlite was studied and found to sample the subcratonic lithospheric mantle over a pressure range from 3.6 to 4.7 GPa and a temperature range of 880 to 1120 °C. Major, minor and trace element compositions indicate that both metasomatised and un-metasomatised samples are present over this pressure range. Fe3 +/∑ Fe in garnet from four xenoliths was determined using Fe K-edge XANES spectroscopy, enabling the redox state of the sampled subcratonic mantle to be determined for three garnet bearing samples. ΔlogfO2[FMQ] varied from 0 to - 3.3 over the sampled pressure interval, with the un-metasomatised samples falling within the global trend of decreasing ΔlogfO2[FMQ] with increasing depth. Superimposed on this was an oxidation trend, at higher pressures (≥ 4.5 GPa), with ΔlogfO2 increasing by 1.5 to 2 units in the metasomatically enriched samples, indicating a clear link between metasomatism and oxidation. One potential source of this oxidation is a carbonated silicate melt, which will increase in carbonate content as ΔlogfO2 increases. Mantle minerals affected by such a melt have the potential to shift from the field of diamond stability into that of carbonate, threatening the stability of diamond.

Morphological Adjustment in the Wandering Reach of the Lower Yellow River in Response to the Changes in Water and Sediment Supply over the Recent Decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Z.; Huang, H. Q.; Yu, G.

2017-12-01

The flow-sediment regime entering into the LYR has changed significantly since the 1970s due to the increasing intensity of human activities. To understand how the wandering reach of the LYR adjusts its channel morphology in response to the change in the flow-sediment regime, this study extracts a series of channel cross-profiles from remote sensing images taken since 1979. It is shown clearly that at one-year timescale, the main flow has shifted significantly, while the sinuosity of the pathways of main flow increased initially, then decreased significantly from 2006 and experienced little variation since 2010. Meanwhile, the width of the wandering belt has been increasing at a very slow stepwise fashion since 2002, and the area of central bars varied with fluctuations before 2009 and yet took a rapidly increasing trend since then. In contrast, the braiding intensity of the wandering reach has shown little change, while the river channel bed and the width/depth ratio of the main channel have taken significant adjustments, with the channel bed being scoured down to a considerable degree and the width/depth ratio varying in a gradually declining trend. These adjustments in the morphology of the Lower Yellow River implicate that the perched situation of the Lower Yellow River can be reversed.

Magnetic anomalies northeast of Cape Adare, northern Victoria Land (Antarctica), and their relation to onshore structures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Damaske, D.; Läufer, A.L.; Goldmann, F.; Möller, H.-D.; Lisker, F.

2007-01-01

An aeromagnetic survey was flown over the offshore region northeast of Cape Adare and the magnetic anomalies compared to onshore structures between Pennell Coast and Tucker Glacier. The magnetic anomalies show two nearly orthogonal major trends. NNW-SSE trending anomalies northeast of Cape Adare represent seafloor spreading within the Adare Trough. A connection of these anomalies to the Northern Basin of the Ross Sea is not clear. Onshore faults are closely aligned to offshore anomalies. Main trends are NW-SE to NNW-SSE and NE-SW to NNESSW. NNW-SSE oriented dextral-transtensional to extensional faults parallel the Adare Peninsula and Adare Trough anomalies. NE-SW trending normal faults appear to segment the main Hallett volcanic bodies.

Assessing Woody Vegetation Trends in Sahelian Drylands Using MODIS Based Seasonal Metrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brandt, Martin; Hiernaux, Pierre; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Mbow, Cheikh; Kergoat, Laurent; Tagesson, Torbern; Ibrahim, Yahaya Z.; Wele, Abdoulaye; Tucker, Compton J.; Fensholt, Rasmus

2016-01-01

Woody plants play a major role for the resilience of drylands and in peoples' livelihoods. However, due to their scattered distribution, quantifying and monitoring woody cover over space and time is challenging. We develop a phenology driven model and train/validate MODIS (MCD43A4, 500m) derived metrics with 178 ground observations from Niger, Senegal and Mali to estimate woody cover trends from 2000 to 2014 over the entire Sahel. The annual woody cover estimation at 500 m scale is fairly accurate with an RMSE of 4.3 (woody cover %) and r(exp 2) = 0.74. Over the 15 year period we observed an average increase of 1.7 (+/- 5.0) woody cover (%) with large spatial differences: No clear change can be observed in densely populated areas (0.2 +/- 4.2), whereas a positive change is seen in sparsely populated areas (2.1 +/- 5.2). Woody cover is generally stable in cropland areas (0.9 +/- 4.6), reflecting the protective management of parkland trees by the farmers. Positive changes are observed in savannas (2.5 +/- 5.4) and woodland areas (3.9 +/- 7.3). The major pattern of woody cover change reveals strong increases in the sparsely populated Sahel zones of eastern Senegal, western Mali and central Chad, but a decreasing trend is observed in the densely populated western parts of Senegal, northern Nigeria, Sudan and southwestern Niger. This decrease is often local and limited to woodlands, being an indication of ongoing expansion of cultivated areas and selective logging.We show that an overall positive trend is found in areas of low anthropogenic pressure demonstrating the potential of these ecosystems to provide services such as carbon storage, if not over-utilized. Taken together, our results provide an unprecedented synthesis of woody cover dynamics in theSahel, and point to land use and human population density as important drivers, however only partially and locally offsetting a general post-drought increase.

Assessment of regional change in nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the Central Valley, California, USA, 1950s-2000s

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burow, Karen R.; Jurgens, Bryant C.; Belitz, Kenneth; Dubrovsky, Neil M.

2013-01-01

A regional assessment of multi-decadal changes in nitrate concentrations was done using historical data and a spatially stratified non-biased approach. Data were stratified into physiographic subregions on the basis of geomorphology and soils data to represent zones of historical recharge and discharge patterns in the basin. Data were also stratified by depth to represent a shallow zone generally representing domestic drinking-water supplies and a deep zone generally representing public drinking-water supplies. These stratifications were designed to characterize the regional extent of groundwater with common redox and age characteristics, two factors expected to influence changes in nitrate concentrations over time. Overall, increasing trends in nitrate concentrations and the proportion of nitrate concentrations above 5 mg/L were observed in the east fans subregion of the Central Valley. Whereas the west fans subregion has elevated nitrate concentrations, temporal trends were not detected, likely due to the heterogeneous nature of the water quality in this area and geologic sources of nitrate, combined with sparse and uneven data coverage. Generally low nitrate concentrations in the basin subregion are consistent with reduced geochemical conditions resulting from low permeability soils and higher organic content, reflecting the distal portions of alluvial fans and historical groundwater discharge areas. Very small increases in the shallow aquifer in the basin subregion may reflect downgradient movement of high nitrate groundwater from adjacent areas or overlying intensive agricultural inputs. Because of the general lack of regionally extensive long-term monitoring networks, the results from this study highlight the importance of placing studies of trends in water quality into regional context. Earlier work concluded that nitrate concentrations were steadily increasing over time in the eastern San Joaquin Valley, but clearly those trends do not apply to other physiographic subregions within the Central Valley, even where land use and climate are similar.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilkerson, Andrea M.; Donohue, Amy; Davis, Robert G.

The article discusses trends in classroom design and then transitions to a discussion of the future of the classroom and how the lighting industry needs to be preparing to meet the needs of the future classroom. The OSU Classroom building as an example throughout, first discussing how trends in classroom design were incorporated into the Classroom Building and then discussing how future lighting systems could enhance the Classroom Building, which is a clear departure from the actual lighting design and current technology.

Trends in Health Care Financial Burdens, 2001 to 2009

PubMed Central

BLUMBERG, LINDA J; WAIDMANN, TIMOTHY A; BLAVIN, FREDRIC; ROTH, JEREMY

2014-01-01

Context: Over the past decade, health care spending increased faster than GDP and income, and decreasing affordability is cited as contributing to personal bankruptcies and as a reason that some of the nonelderly population is uninsured. We examined the trends in health care affordability over the past decade, measuring the financial burdens associated with health insurance premiums and out-of-pocket costs and highlighting implications of the Affordable Care Act for the future financial burdens of particular populations. Methods: We used cross sections of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Household Component (MEPS-HC) from 2001 to 2009. We defined financial burden at the health insurance unit (HIU) level and calculated it as the ratio of expenditures on health care—employer-sponsored insurance coverage (ESI) and private nongroup premiums and out-of-pocket payments—to modified adjusted gross income. Findings: The median health care financial burden grew on average by 2.7% annually and by 21.9% over the period. Using a range of definitions, the fraction of households facing high financial burdens increased significantly. For example, the share of HIUs with health care expenses exceeding 10% of income increased from 35.9% to 44.8%, a 24.8% relative increase. The share of the population in HIUs with health care financial burdens between 2% and 10% fell, and the share with burdens between 10% and 44% rose. Conclusions: We found a clear trend over the past decade toward an increasing share of household income devoted to health care. The ACA will affect health care spending for subgroups of the population differently. Several groups’ burdens will likely decrease, including those becoming eligible for Medicaid or subsidized private insurance and those with expensive medical conditions. Those newly obtaining coverage might increase their health spending relative to income, but they will gain access to care and the ability to spread their expenditures over time, both of which have demonstrable economic value. PMID:24597557

Organization and functioning of primary healthcare for pre-school children in Croatia: a longitudinal study from 1995 to 2012.

PubMed

Buljan, Josip; Prljević, Gordana; Menegoni, Martina; Bralić, Irena

2014-12-01

Primary health care for children in Croatia are mostly provided by primary pediatricians (PP) in the urban and by family doctors in rural areas. During past decades, as apart of health care reforms, primary pediatric care experiences several changes. This study was undertaken in order to investigate the trends in organizational structure and functioning of the PPs, based on routinely collected data from Croatian Health Service Yearbooks, 1995 to 2012. The results have consistently shown a shortage of PPs in Croatia. The shortage obviously affects the average number of children per PP; number increased from 994 in 1995, to 1556 children in 2010, which was far above the standard. The shortage of PPs is also related to the high number of visits (30 to 40) per PP and per working day. The obtained results clearly show only the trends, therefore further research is needed for a full understanding of the PHC for pre-school children.

[Immigration to Venezuela].

PubMed

Picouet, M; Pellegrino, A; Papail, J

1986-11-01

Immigration to Venezuela is examined using census data with the focus on the period 1971-1981. A brief overview of trends since the beginning of the twentieth century is first presented. The analysis indicates that "immigration to Venezuela is clearly of a short-term nature. Flows follow job opportunities and adjust to the labour market and to the financial capacity of the exchange market. The large increase of migratory movements to Venezuela in the 1970's is characterized by a diversification of their places of origin and by a greater instability. To a large extent, the migrants are illegal, especially those coming from Colombia and the Caribbean islands. Because of the crisis of the early 1980's, which is now worsened by the down trend of both oil prices and the U.S. dollar, Venezuela has become less attractive to immigrants, particularly from neighbouring countries." The authors observe that migrants in Venezuela are not well integrated and may depart, disrupting the labor supply in certain technical and specialized occupations (SUMMARY IN ENG AND SPA) excerpt

Explaining Participation: An Explanatory History of Select Gender Patterns in Undergraduate STEM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastroianni, Michael Pasquale

This explanatory study examines three focal periods in undergraduate STEM as related to the gender gap. Social, economic, and more general historical data are used to develop a clear and powerful explanation of baccalaureate trends in biology and engineering. Specifically, historical accounts are offered for 1) a ten-year period in undergraduate biology in which the number of baccalaureates awarded to men decreased 44 percent, while the number of baccalaureates awarded to women decreased one percent; 2) the start of a twenty-year period in which the number of bachelor's degrees awarded in the biological sciences increased 150 percent---from 36,068 degrees in 1989, to 90,003 bachelor's degrees in 2011; and 3) a ten year period in undergraduate engineering where female graduation rates septupled---this ten-year time period is the only instance of meaningful and noteworthy growth for women in undergraduate engineering over the past half century. Findings from each history reveal a common narrative underlying baccalaureate trends. Implications for undergraduate STEM are discussed.

Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century

PubMed Central

Stern, Harry; Kovacs, Kit M.; Lowry, Lloyd; Moore, Sue E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Ferguson, Steven H.; Wiig, Øystein; Boveng, Peter; Angliss, Robyn P.; Born, Erik W.; Litovka, Dennis; Quakenbush, Lori; Lydersen, Christian; Vongraven, Dag; Ugarte, Fernando

2015-01-01

Abstract Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979–2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5–10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation. PMID:25783745

Estimation of sampling error uncertainties in observed surface air temperature change in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hua, Wei; Shen, Samuel S. P.; Weithmann, Alexander; Wang, Huijun

2017-08-01

This study examines the sampling error uncertainties in the monthly surface air temperature (SAT) change in China over recent decades, focusing on the uncertainties of gridded data, national averages, and linear trends. Results indicate that large sampling error variances appear at the station-sparse area of northern and western China with the maximum value exceeding 2.0 K2 while small sampling error variances are found at the station-dense area of southern and eastern China with most grid values being less than 0.05 K2. In general, the negative temperature existed in each month prior to the 1980s, and a warming in temperature began thereafter, which accelerated in the early and mid-1990s. The increasing trend in the SAT series was observed for each month of the year with the largest temperature increase and highest uncertainty of 0.51 ± 0.29 K (10 year)-1 occurring in February and the weakest trend and smallest uncertainty of 0.13 ± 0.07 K (10 year)-1 in August. The sampling error uncertainties in the national average annual mean SAT series are not sufficiently large to alter the conclusion of the persistent warming in China. In addition, the sampling error uncertainties in the SAT series show a clear variation compared with other uncertainty estimation methods, which is a plausible reason for the inconsistent variations between our estimate and other studies during this period.

Seaweed consumption and the risk of thyroid cancer in women: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study.

PubMed

Michikawa, Takehiro; Inoue, Manami; Shimazu, Taichi; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Yamaji, Taiki; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2012-05-01

Iodine is a suspected risk factor for thyroid cancer. Seaweed accounts for about 80% of Japanese people's iodine intake. We examined the association between seaweed consumption and the risk of thyroid cancer in Japanese women. Women participating in the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study (n=52 679; age: 40-69 years) were followed up for a mean of 14.5 years; 134 new thyroid cancer cases, including 113 papillary carcinoma cases, were identified. Seaweed consumption was assessed using a food-frequency questionnaire and divided into three categories: 2 days/week or less (reference); 3-4 days/week; and almost daily. The Cox proportional hazards model was applied to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Seaweed consumption was clearly associated with an increased risk of papillary carcinoma (HR for almost daily consumption compared with 2 days/week or less=1.71; 95% CI: 1.01-2.90; trend P=0.04). After stratification for menopausal status, an increased risk was observed in postmenopausal women (papillary carcinoma HR for almost daily consumption compared with 2 days/week or less=3.81, 95% CI: 1.67-8.68; trend P<0.01), but not in premenopausal women (HR=0.91, 95% CI: 0.44-1.91; trend P=0.76). This study identified a positive association between seaweed consumption and the risk of thyroid cancer (especially for papillary carcinoma) in postmenopausal women.

Lung cancer mortality trends in 36 European countries: secular trends and birth cohort patterns by sex and region 1970-2007.

PubMed

Bray, Freddie Ian; Weiderpass, Elisabete

2010-03-15

Smoking is a major contributor to all-cause mortality in Europe and accounts for one-fifth of the cancer-related deaths. Monitoring the tobacco epidemic via an analysis of lung cancer trends is essential in helping countries arrest the effects of tobacco epidemic in the region. The study aims to provide a comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the temporal patterns of lung cancer mortality in Europe, emphasizing country- and sex-specific differences. National lung cancer mortality data were extracted from the WHO mortality databank by age, sex, year of death (1970-2007) for 36 countries in Europe. Trends in lung cancer mortality in men have tended to decrease in many European countries during the last two decades, particularly in North and Western Europe. Among women, mortality rates are still increasing in many countries, although in a few populations, rates are beginning to stabilize, notably in the high-risk countries within Eastern Europe (Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic), and in Northern Europe (Denmark, Iceland and the United Kingdom). Men and women are clearly in very different phases of the smoking epidemic, and, as reflected in the mortality rates by birth cohort, the stage varies widely by country within each European region. That lung cancer mortality trends in men are on a downwards path in most European countries while female rates continue to rise, points to an urgent need for national and European prevention strategies that target tobacco cessation and prevention among European women.

Detecting trends in raptor counts: power and type I error rates of various statistical tests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hatfield, J.S.; Gould, W.R.; Hoover, B.A.; Fuller, M.R.; Lindquist, E.L.

1996-01-01

We conducted simulations that estimated power and type I error rates of statistical tests for detecting trends in raptor population count data collected from a single monitoring site. Results of the simulations were used to help analyze count data of bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) from 7 national forests in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin during 1980-1989. Seven statistical tests were evaluated, including simple linear regression on the log scale and linear regression with a permutation test. Using 1,000 replications each, we simulated n = 10 and n = 50 years of count data and trends ranging from -5 to 5% change/year. We evaluated the tests at 3 critical levels (alpha = 0.01, 0.05, and 0.10) for both upper- and lower-tailed tests. Exponential count data were simulated by adding sampling error with a coefficient of variation of 40% from either a log-normal or autocorrelated log-normal distribution. Not surprisingly, tests performed with 50 years of data were much more powerful than tests with 10 years of data. Positive autocorrelation inflated alpha-levels upward from their nominal levels, making the tests less conservative and more likely to reject the null hypothesis of no trend. Of the tests studied, Cox and Stuart's test and Pollard's test clearly had lower power than the others. Surprisingly, the linear regression t-test, Collins' linear regression permutation test, and the nonparametric Lehmann's and Mann's tests all had similar power in our simulations. Analyses of the count data suggested that bald eagles had increasing trends on at least 2 of the 7 national forests during 1980-1989.

Sensor networks in the low lands.

PubMed

Meratnia, Nirvana; van der Zwaag, Berend Jan; van Dijk, Hylke W; Bijwaard, Dennis J A; Havinga, Paul J M

2010-01-01

This paper provides an overview of scientific and industrial developments of the last decade in the area of sensor networks in The Netherlands (Low Lands). The goal is to highlight areas in which the Netherlands has made most contributions and is currently a dominant player in the field of sensor networks. On the one hand, motivations, addressed topics, and initiatives taken in this period are presented, while on the other hand, special emphasis is given to identifying current and future trends and formulating a vision for the coming five to ten years. The presented overview and trend analysis clearly show that Dutch research and industrial efforts, in line with recent worldwide developments in the field of sensor technology, present a clear shift from sensor node platforms, operating systems, communication, networking, and data management aspects of the sensor networks to reasoning/cognition, control, and actuation.

Managing health care organizations in an age of rapid change.

PubMed

Benjamin, S; al-Alaiwat, S

1998-03-01

Health care managers find their work increasingly difficult, due in part to rapid environmental change that plagues organizational life. Management practices and attitudes that may have been appropriate in previous eras are ineffective today. A study was conducted among managers in the Ministry of Health, State of Bahrain, seeking information about current trends in the macro or external environment that affect the Ministry of Health, as well as internal environmental pressures that may be similar or different. This article provides a clear picture of the context in which managers perform their work and offers recommendations for coping with change in dynamic, complex organizations.

Plasticity in probabilistic reaction norms for maturation in a salmonid fish.

PubMed

Morita, Kentaro; Tsuboi, Jun-ichi; Nagasawa, Toru

2009-10-23

The relationship between body size and the probability of maturing, often referred to as the probabilistic maturation reaction norm (PMRN), has been increasingly used to infer genetic variation in maturation schedule. Despite this trend, few studies have directly evaluated plasticity in the PMRN. A transplant experiment using white-spotted charr demonstrated that the PMRN for precocious males exhibited plasticity. A smaller threshold size at maturity occurred in charr inhabiting narrow streams where more refuges are probably available for small charr, which in turn might enhance the reproductive success of sneaker precocious males. Our findings suggested that plastic effects should clearly be included in investigations of variation in PMRNs.

Increasing trend in the average temperature in Finland, 1847-2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mikkonen, Santtu; Laine, Marko; Mäkelä, Hanna M.; Gregow, Hilppa; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Lahtinen, Matti; Laaksonen, Ari

2014-05-01

The global average temperature has increased by about 0.8 ° C since the mid-19th century. It has been shown that this increase is statistically significant and that it can, for the most part, be attributed to human-induced climate change (IPCC 2007). A temperature increase is obvious also in regional and local temperatures in many parts of the world. However, compared with the global average temperature, the regional and local temperatures exhibit higher levels of noise, which has largely been removed from the global temperature due to the higher level of averaging. Because Finland is located in northern latitudes, it is subject to the polar amplification of climate change-induced warming, which is due to the enhanced melting of snow and ice and other feedback mechanisms. Therefore, warming in Finland is expected to be approximately 50% higher than the global average. Conversely, the location of Finland between the Atlantic Ocean and continental Eurasia causes the weather to be very variable, and thus the temperature signal is rather noisy. The change in mean temperature in Finland was investigated with Dynamic Linear Models (DLM) in order to define the sign and the magnitude of the trend in the temperature time series within the last 165 years. The data consisted of gridded monthly mean temperatures. The grid has a 10 km spatial resolution, and it was created by interpolating a homogenized temperature series measured at Finnish weather stations. Seasonal variation in temperature and the autocorrelation structure of the time series were taken account in the DLM models. We found that the Finnish temperature time series exhibits a statistically significant increasing trend, which is consistent with human-induced global warming. The mean temperature has risen clearly over 2° C in the years 1847-2012, which amounts to 0.16 ° C/decade. The warming rate before 1940's was close to the linear trend for the whole period, whereas the temperature change in the mid-20th century was negligible. However, the warming after the late 1960s has been remarkably fast. The model indicates that within the last 40 years the rate of change has been as high as 0.30 ° C/decade. The increase in temperature has been highest in spring and in late autumn but the change in summer months has not been so evident. The observed warming is somewhat higher than the global trend, which confirms the assumption that warming is stronger in higher latitudes.

Increased Precipitation over the Yucatan Peninsula Inferred from the Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Late Holocene Foram Assemblages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rachmallu, M.; Broach, K.; Paytan, A.; Street, J. H.

2014-12-01

As global climate warms, IPCC predictions suggest dry and seasonally dry regions will become dryer, increasing stress on water resources by growing urban populations (e.g. Southern California; Yucatan, Mexico). This study aims to reconstruct paleohydrologic trends during the late Holocene using foraminifera assemblages in Yucatan, Mexico to determine drought susceptibility in a region affected by migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The ITCZ affects precipitation over the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially decreasing groundwater infiltration and thus reducing discharge in submarine springs at the peninsula margins. The field site Celestun Lagoon near Merida, Yucatan, Mexico, is dominated by spring and groundwater inputs at the northern terminus and opens to the Gulf of Mexico at the southern end resulting in a strong salinity gradient dependent on freshwater influx. We analyzed the foram assemblage in the top 6 cm of a set of 7 cores collected along a lagoonal transect (from the mouth to the head) and plotted the relative abundances of Ammonia beccarii, Elphidium sp., Quinqueloculina sp., and the ostracod Hemicyprideis cf. nichuptensis against site location. A. beccarii abundance increases from 40% near the head to 70% near the middle of the lagoon before dropping to <10% toward the saline lagoon mouth (high abundance in brackish salinity). Quinqueloculina sp. increases from 0% at the upper lagoon to nearly 40% near the mouth showing an opposite trend along the same transect. Elphidium sp. showed no clear trend (abundance range 10-28% throughout), and lowest H. nichuptensis abundance occurred at the middle of the lagoon (10%) increasing to the north and south (up to 60%). The inversely correlated spatial distribution between A. beccarii and Quinqueloculina sp. occurs vertically in an upper lagoon long core from 125-96 cm below sediment-water interface (14C age dates 3968-2820 ka), implying a decreasing salinity over ~1000 yrs and increased precipitation over the peninsula feeding the springs. The relationship between decreasing Elphidium sp. abundance and salinity over the same time interval is unclear; ostracod trends are being measured. This assemblage data corresponds to low δ18O values in Yucatan lakes suggesting low evaporation and increased wet conditions during the same time period.

The role of income in brain tumor patients: a descriptive register-based study : No correlation between patients' income and development of brain cancer.

PubMed

Nilsson, Jonas; Holgersson, Georg; Järås, Jacob; Bergström, Stefan; Bergqvist, Michael

2018-03-13

Socioeconomic status (SES) and its association with cancer in general have been thoroughly studied in the last decades. Several studies have shown associations between SES and many types of cancer such as lung cancer, breast cancer, and prostate cancer. For gliomas, no clear occupational or exposure risk factors have been identified, although some possible risk factors such as use of cellular telephone are still controversial. The aim in the present study is to analyze whether there is an association between SES and development of brain cancer. Data from 1999 through 2013 were collected from the Swedish Cancer Registry and from the National Statistics of Sweden. Age-standardized incidence rates for people with different income were calculated using linear regression model. A total of 11,892 patients were included, of which 5675 were meningiomas, 1216 low-grade gliomas, and 5001 high-grade gliomas. No clear trend between increasing incidence rates and higher income was seen in neither of the investigated brain tumor histologies. In conclusion, the results should be interpreted with caution, but there does not seem to be a correlation in this material between increased income and development of brain cancer.

Relationships for electron-vibrational coupling in conjugated π organic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, L.; Lynch, P.; McNamara, M.; Byrne, H. J.

2005-06-01

A series of π conjugated systems were studied by absorption, photoluminescence and vibrational spectroscopy. As is common for these systems, a linear relationship between the positioning of the absorption and photoluminescence maxima plotted against inverse conjugation length is observed. The relationships are in good agreement with the simple particle in a box method, one of the earliest descriptions of the properties of one-dimensional organic molecules. In addition to the electronic transition energies, it was observed that the Stokes shift also exhibited a well-defined relationship with increasing conjugation length, implying a correlation between the electron-vibrational coupling and chain length. This correlation is further examined using Raman spectroscopy, whereby the integrated Raman scattering is seen to behave superlinearly with chain length. There is a clear indication that the vibrational activity and thus nonradiative decay processes are controllable through molecular structure. The correlations between the Stokes energies and the vibrational structure are also observed in a selection of PPV based polymers and a clear trend of increasing luminescence efficiency with decreasing vibrational activity and Stokes shift is observable. The implications of such structure property relationships in terms of materials design are discussed.

Linearity of Mid-Continent Kimberlite-Carbonatite Magmatism, USA: Slab-Edge Focus as Alternative to Hot-Spot Track

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duke, G. I.; Carlson, R. W.

2009-12-01

The fates of subducted oceanic slabs at depth in the mantle are not well known, but linear trends of unusual magmatic products such as kimberlites and carbonatites might be used to track their past existence within the mantle. A N40°W linear trend of kimberlites and carbonatites, and rocks of kimberlitic affinity, from the Black Hills (WY-SD) to Alberta, was suggested to have been caused by upwelling mantle material focused directly above the western edge of the subducted Kula plate stalled in the transition zone, with a slab window or “tear” to the southwest (Duke, 2009). In contrast, a linear zone of similar magmas to the south (a southerly extension of this N40°W linear trend, from Kansas to Louisiana) has been proposed to represent a hot spot trace produced by a mantle plume (“Bermuda Hot Spot”). Ongoing studies of ages and geochemistry of alkalic rocks along the N40°W trend from Louisiana to Alberta provide increasing evidence for a slab-edge model as the cause of the linear trend of kimberlites and carbonatites in the mid-continent. In addition, seismic tomography indicates that the torn Farallon slab currently is stalled in the transition zone below the mid-continent, and an older slab is within the lower mantle farther to the east (Sigloch et al., 2008). These seismic data were interpreted as revealing the presence of the western edge of the Farallon plate trending roughly N40°W. The slab edge as projected to the surface is parallel to, but slightly west of, the trend of kimberlites and carbonatites at the mid-continent. Recently published ages show no clear age progression for the magmatism and thus do not support a hot-spot hypothesis for the linear trend. The isotopic compositions of the alkalic rocks show a genetic similarity among more recent magmas along the trend. There are at least four main pulses of magmatism along the trend at 110-85, 67-64, 55-52, and less than 50 Ma. Kimberlites and carbonatites in the northern section of the N40°W trend are the youngest of the northern group, with ages of ~48 to ≤ 46 Ma. The southern portion of the trend contains the oldest alkalic magmatism in Arkansas, Kansas, and Louisiana, with kimberlites in Kansas and carbonatites in Arkansas. The 67-64 Ma magmatic (or “reheating”) pulse was recorded along the entire trend from Louisiana to northern Montana. Multiple slabs and/or slab segmentation, and irregular convection may account for multiple magmatic pulses, although the 67-64 Ma magmatism across the entire continent is difficult to explain. Importantly, kimberlites and carbonatites represent the most recent, or part of the most recent, magmatism along the N40°W trend. This correlates with a change in proportion of source composition with time, as indicated by increasing positive epsilon Nd and Hf, lower 87Sr/86Sr, and higher 207Pb/204Pb, 206/204Pb, and 208Pb/204Pb. Thus, in each area where there exist precise age and isotopic data, magmatism began with a component that was dominantly lithospheric, followed by increasing proportions of asthenospheric component with time, culminating with kimberlitic or carbonatite magmatism.

Protein-surface interactions on stimuli-responsive polymeric biomaterials.

PubMed

Cross, Michael C; Toomey, Ryan G; Gallant, Nathan D

2016-03-04

Responsive surfaces: a review of the dependence of protein adsorption on the reversible volume phase transition in stimuli-responsive polymers. Specifically addressed are a widely studied subset: thermoresponsive polymers. Findings are also generalizable to other materials which undergo a similarly reversible volume phase transition. As of 2015, over 100,000 articles have been published on stimuli-responsive polymers and many more on protein-biomaterial interactions. Significantly, fewer than 100 of these have focused specifically on protein interactions with stimuli-responsive polymers. These report a clear trend of increased protein adsorption in the collapsed state compared to the swollen state. This control over protein interactions makes stimuli-responsive polymers highly useful in biomedical applications such as wound repair scaffolds, on-demand drug delivery, and antifouling surfaces. Outstanding questions are whether the protein adsorption is reversible with the volume phase transition and whether there is a time-dependence. A clear understanding of protein interactions with stimuli-responsive polymers will advance theoretical models, experimental results, and biomedical applications.

[Associations between mortality and alcohol consumption in Lithuanian population].

PubMed

Grabauskas, Vilius; Prochorskas, Remigijus; Veryga, Aurelijus

2009-01-01

The objective of the study was to assess alcohol-related mortality that potentially might explain an increasing trend in overall mortality of Lithuanian population, which started after 2000 and peaked in 2005. An empiric analysis of national mortality and other statistical data as well as their international comparisons. An analysis of available data clearly indicates that a decline in mortality in 1998-2000, i.e. during the beginning of the National Programme of Health, as well as its increase in 2001 and 2005 were predominantly determined by cause-specific deaths of two groups: deaths from diseases of the circulatory system (mainly ischemic heart disease) and alcohol consumption-related deaths (liver cirrhosis, accidental poisoning by alcohol, accidents, etc.). A certain proportion of deaths, which were caused by alcohol, were wrongly assigned to the deaths from diseases of the circulatory system due to uncertainties in filling-in death certificates. By approximate estimates, at least one-quarter of increase in all-cause mortality between 2002-2004 and 2005-2007 could be explained by an increase in alcohol consumption, accounting for additional 880 deaths on average per year. In the year 2007, 12.6% (n=5760) of all deaths were somehow related to alcohol consumption. A comparative analysis demonstrated that mortality and alcohol consumption trends were going in parallel over the last decade. The systemic decline in mortality observed in Lithuania from 1995 stopped in 2000 after a decrease in alcohol taxes, which resulted in an increase in alcohol accessibility and consumption. An average annual increase in alcohol consumption over the period of 2001-2004 was 7%; it increased up to 17% in 2005 and accounted for 12% annual increase on average within 2005-2007. Negative trends in alcohol-related morbidity and mortality in Lithuanian population most notably registered in 2001 and 2005 were largely influenced by uncontrollable increase in alcohol consumption over the last decade. Economic and commercial arguments in decision-making process that neglected health interest of Lithuanian population (decrease of alcohol taxes in 1999, other factors increasing alcohol accessibility and consumption) were those counteracting the implementation of balanced health policy in the country.

The drivers of tropical deforestation: a comprehensive review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanford, T. J.; Boucher, D.; Elias, P.; Lininger, K.; May-Tobin, C.; Roquemore, S.; Saxon, E.; Martin, J.; Mulik, K.

2011-12-01

Tropical forests are disappearing around the world. This clearing causes around 15% of global carbon emissions, leads to the rapid loss of biodiversity, and destroys the livelihoods of many indigenous peoples. We comprehensively reviewed the literature on drivers of tropical deforestation and found a number of trends. While deforestation was predominately driven by small farmers and government action in the 1970s and 1980s, since the 1990s most deforestation has been driven by large scale commercial agriculture. In Latin America, and Brazil in particular, forest clearing has mostly been due to expansion of cattle pastures and for a period in the late 1990s and early 2000s soy bean expansion. In Southeast Asia, deforestation has mainly been due to expansion of oil palm plantations and timber harvesting. In Africa small farmers and wood fuel collection still play a role, although deforestation rates are considerably lower there than in other regions. Additionally, increased urbanization and trends toward a diet based on meat, particularly beef, have help drive deforestation. Biofuels policies around the world are also adding demand, both directly for vegetable oil, and by expanding demand for competing crops such as corn. We examine the extent to which biofuels demand directly and indirectly acts as a driver of deforestation, and the policies that can mitigate this problem by analyzing alternative scenarios of biofuel expansion and their impact on land use change, commodity prices and green house gas emissions.

Selection and ranking of patient video cases in paediatric neurology in relation to learner levels.

PubMed

Balslev, Thomas; Muijtjens, Arno M M; Maarbjerg, Sabine Frølich; de Grave, Willem

2018-05-01

Teaching and learning with patient video cases may add authenticity, enhance diagnostic accuracy and improve chances of early diagnosis. The aim of this study is firstly to identify selection criteria for key Patient video cases (PVCs), secondly to identify trends in relevance of PVCs for learner levels and thirdly, to rank PVCs for learner levels. Based on a literature review, we identified criteria for key PVCs for use in paediatric neurology. We then performed a multi-round Delphi analysis to obtain agreement between 28 expert clinician teachers concerning key PVCs for four learner levels. We identified two major criteria: key PVCs should demonstrate key movements, and these movements should be subtle and/or difficult to note. The expert clinician teachers subsequently assessed a list of 14 topics for key PVCs. We found a clear, increasing trend in relevance scores, from medical students to young residents to experienced residents and specialists. For medical students and residents, epileptic spasms, Down syndrome, developmental delay, cerebral palsy and absence epilepsy were highly ranked. For specialists, conditions like chorea, focal seizures or eye movement disorders topped the ranking list, although ranking was less clear for this group of advanced learners. Key PVCs should demonstrate movements that are difficult to note for learners. Ranked lists of key PVCs for teaching and learning at different learner levels are now available and may help institutions build validated local libraries of PVCs. Copyright © 2017 European Paediatric Neurology Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in temperature and dew point at the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire, 1935-2004.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, A. N.; Pszenny, A. A.; Fischer, E. V.

2005-05-01

Dry and wet bulb temperatures from sling psychrometer measurements taken every six hours from 1935 to 2004 at the summit of Mount Washington, located at 44 °16'N, 71 °18'W, 1914 m ASL have recently been digitized. Annual temperature has increased by 0.3°C, and annual dew point has decreased by 0.4°C over this 70-year period. Synoptic temperature has increased most in spring and winter, changing by 1.0°C and 0.5°C, respectively, while it has decreased slightly in summer and fall. Dew point has decreased in fall, summer, and winter, 0.9°C, 0.5°C, and 0.4°C respectively, and increased by 0.1°C in spring. Preliminary analysis suggests that some of the larger trends in winter and spring may be statistically significant; results of Monte Carlo simulations will be reported. Changes in dew point may be attributed to two factors. Decreasing dew points are expected if the temperature increases but the amount of water vapor present stays the same. Alternatively, lower dew points could be indicative of the presence of drier air. Other dew point climatologies of the continental United States for the second half of the century have shown mixed results, with increased dew points evident at some stations, decreased dew points at others, and no clear regional patterns.

Impacts of precipitation and temperature trends on different time scales on the water cycle and water resource availability in mountainous Mediterranean catchments.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Herrero, Javier; José Polo, María

2017-04-01

Climatology trends, precipitation and temperature variations condition the hydrological evolution of the river flow response at basin and sub-basin scales. The link between both climate and flow trends is crucial in mountainous areas, where small variations in temperature can produce significant impacts on precipitation (occurrence as rainfall or snowfall), snowmelt and evaporation, and consequently very different flow signatures. This importance is greater in semiarid regions, where the high variability of the climatic annual and seasonal regimes usually amplifies this impact on river flow. The Sierra Nevada National Park (Southern Spain), with altitudes ranging from 2000 to 3500 m.a.s.l., is part of the global climate change observatories network and a clear example of snow regions in a semiarid environment. This mountain range is head of different catchments, being the Guadalfeo River Basin one of the most influenced by the snow regime. This study shows the observed 55-year (1961-2015) trends of annual precipitation and daily mean temperature, and the associated impacts on snowfall and snow persistence, and the resulting trend of the annual river flow in the Guadalfeo River Basin (Southern Spain), a semiarid abrupt mountainous area (up to 3450 m a.s.l.) facing the Mediterranean Sea where the Alpine and Mediterranean climates coexist in a domain highly influenced by the snow regime, and a significant seasonality in the flow regime. The annual precipitation and annual daily mean temperature experimented a decreasing trend of 2.05 mm/year and an increasing trend of 0.037 °C/year, respectively, during the study period, with a high variability on a decadal basis. However, the torrential precipitation events are more frequent in the last few years of the study period, with an apparently increasing associated dispersion. The estimated annual snowfall trend shows a decreasing trend of 0.24 mm/year, associated to the decrease of precipitation rather than to temperature increase. From the analyses of river flow observations and hydrological modelling, these trends result in an estimated decreasing annual trend of the mean river inflow to reservoirs of 0.091 m3/s, which is equivalent to a mean loss of 2.87 hm3/year during the study period. Nonetheless, these results are associated to a high variability of both extreme values and the annual and decadal values. Moreover, the decrease of the annual inflow is approximately a 25% higher than the loss of precipitation, due to the impact on the different water fluxes from the snowpack associated to the enhanced torrential behaviour of both snowfall/rainfall occurrence and snow persistence. The results show the complexity of hydrological processes in Mediterranean regions, especially under the snow influence, and point out to a significant shift in the precipitation and temperature regime, and thus on the snow-affected hydrological variables in the study area, with a decrease of the available water resource volume in the medium and long term. However, on an annual basis, years with an intense snowfall regime but mild and longer dry periods result in a significant increase of the annual river flow and water storage. Reservoir operation criteria and water allocation should undergo a revision based on hydrological modelling of the snow regions and scenario analysis.

Time-on-task decrements in "steer clear" performance of patients with sleep apnea and narcolepsy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Findley, L. J.; Suratt, P. M.; Dinges, D. F.

1999-01-01

Loss of attention with time-on-task reflects the increasing instability of the waking state during performance in experimentally induced sleepiness. To determine whether patients with disorders of excessive sleepiness also displayed time-on-task decrements indicative of wake state instability, visual sustained attention performance on "Steer Clear," a computerized simple RT driving simulation task, was compared among 31 patients with untreated sleep apnea, 16 patients with narcolepsy, and 14 healthy control subjects. Vigilance decrement functions were generated by analyzing the number of collisions in each of six four-minute periods of Steer Clear task performance in a mixed-model analysis of variance and linear regression equations. As expected, patients had more Steer Clear collisions than control subjects (p=0.006). However, the inter-subject variability in errors among the narcoleptic patients was four-fold that of the apnea patients, and 100-fold that of the controls volunteers; the variance in errors among untreated apnea patients was 27-times that of controls. The results of transformed collision data revealed main effects for group (p=0.006), time-on-task (p=0.001), and a significant interaction (p=0.022). Control subjects showed no clear evidence of increasing collision errors with time-on-task (adjusted R2=0.22), while apnea patients showed a trend toward vigilance decrement (adjusted R2=0.42, p=0.097), and narcolepsy patients evidenced a robust linear vigilance decrement (adjusted R2=0.87, p=0.004). The association of disorders of excessive somnolence with escalating time-on-task decrements makes it imperative that when assessment of neurobehavioral performance is conducted in patients, it involves task durations and analyses that will evaluate the underlying vulnerability of potentially sleepy patients to decrements over time in tasks that require sustained attention and timely responses, both of which are key components in safe driving performance.

Mediterranean Ocean Colour Chlorophyll Trends.

PubMed

Colella, Simone; Falcini, Federico; Rinaldi, Eleonora; Sammartino, Michela; Santoleri, Rosalia

2016-01-01

In being at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton is particularly important for marine ecosystem functioning (e.g., biodiversity). Strong anthropization, over-exploitation of natural resources, and climate change affect the natural amount of phytoplankton and, therefore, represent a continuous threat to the biodiversity in marine waters. In particular, a concerning risks for coastal waters is the increase in nutrient inputs of terrestrial/anthropogenic origin that can lead to undesirable modifications of phytoplankton concentration (i.e., eutrophication). Monitoring chlorophyll (Chl) concentration, which is a proxy of phytoplankton biomass, is an efficient tool for recording and understanding the response of the marine ecosystem to human pressures and thus for detecting eutrophication. Here, we compute Chl trends over the Mediterranean Sea by using satellite data, also highlighting the fact that remote sensing may represent an efficient and reliable solution to synoptically control the "good environmental status" (i.e., the Marine Directive to achieve Good Environmental Status of EU marine waters by 2020) and to assess the application of international regulations and environmental directives. Our methodology includes the use of an ad hoc regional (i.e., Mediterranean) algorithm for Chl concentration retrieval, also accounting for the difference between offshore (i.e., Case I) and coastal (i.e., Case II) waters. We apply the Mann-Kendall test and the Sens's method for trend estimation to the Chl concentration de-seasonalized monthly time series, as obtained from the X-11 technique. We also provide a preliminary analysis of some particular trends by evaluating their associated inter-annual variability. The high spatial resolution of our approach allows a clear identification of intense trends in those coastal waters that are affected by river outflows. We do not attempt to attribute the observed trends to specific anthropogenic events. However, the trends that we document are consistent with the findings of several previous studies.

Trend Estimates of AERONET-Observed and Model-Simulated AOTs Between 1993 and 2013

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yoon, J.; Pozzer, A.; Chang, D. Y.; Lelieveld, J.; Kim, J.; Kim, M.; Lee, Y. G.; Koo, J.-H.; Lee, J.; Moon, K. J.

2015-01-01

Recently, temporal changes in Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT) have been investigated based on model simulations, satellite and ground-based observations. Most AOT trend studies used monthly or annual arithmetic means that discard details of the generally right-skewed AOT distributions. Potentially, such results can be biased by extreme values (including outliers). This study additionally uses percentiles (i.e., the lowest 5%, 25%, 50%, 75% and 95% of the monthly cumulative distributions fitted to Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET)-observed and ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC)-model simulated AOTs) that are less affected by outliers caused by measurement error, cloud contamination and occasional extreme aerosol events. Since the limited statistical representativeness of monthly percentiles and means can lead to bias, this study adopts the number of observations as a weighting factor, which improves the statistical robustness of trend estimates. By analyzing the aerosol composition of AERONET-observed and EMAC-simulated AOTs in selected regions of interest, we distinguish the dominant aerosol types and investigate the causes of regional AOT trends. The simulated and observed trends are generally consistent with a high correlation coefficient (R = 0.89) and small bias (slope+/-2(sigma) = 0.75 +/- 0.19). A significant decrease in EMAC-decomposed AOTs by water-soluble compounds and black carbon is found over the USA and the EU due to environmental regulation. In particular, a clear reversal in the AERONET AOT trend percentiles is found over the USA, probably related to the AOT diurnal cycle and the frequency of wildfires. In most of the selected regions of interest, EMAC-simulated trends are mainly attributed to the significant changes of the dominant aerosols; e.g., significant decrease in sea salt and water soluble compounds over Central America, increase in dust over Northern Africa and Middle East, and decrease in black carbon and organic carbon over Australia.

Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.

Here, water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO 2more » explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO 2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO 2, but this direct CO 2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO 2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO 2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.« less

Endometrial cancer and meat consumption: a case-cohort study.

PubMed

van Lonkhuijzen, Luc; Kirsh, Victoria A; Kreiger, Nancy; Rohan, Thomas E

2011-07-01

Diet plays an important role in the etiology of certain cancers, but there is limited evidence with regard to the association between diet and risk of endometrial cancer. Few prospective studies have investigated meat intake as a potential determinant of endometrial cancer risk. The objective of this study was to examine the association between endometrial cancer risk and total meat, red meat, processed meat, fish, and poultry intake. We conducted a case-cohort analysis within the Canadian Study of Diet, Lifestyle, and Health, a prospective cohort of 73 909 adults (39 614 women). Participants were recruited from 1992 to 1999, predominantly from three Canadian universities. We conducted a linkage with the Ontario Cancer Registry for the years 1992-2007 for the female cohort members, who resided in Ontario at the time of enrollment (n=26 024), to yield data on cancer incidence. The analytic sample was comprised of 107 incident cases and 1830 subcohort members, the latter being an age-stratified sample of the full cohort. A nonsignificant increase in the risk of endometrial cancer was associated with increased consumption of red meat [hazard ratio (HR)=1.62, 95% confidence intervals (CI)=0.86-3.08, for high vs. low intake; P trend=0.13)], processed meat (HR=1.45, 95% CI=0.80-2.61, for high vs. low intake; P trend=0.058), and all meat combined (HR=1.50, 95% CI=0.78-2.89, for high vs. low intake; P trend=0.14). No clear patterns were noted for poultry or fish. The results of this study, although based on a limited number of cases, suggest that relatively high meat intake may be associated with increased risk of endometrial cancer.

Trends in the utilization of computed tomography and cardiac catheterization among children with congenital heart disease.

PubMed

Yang, Justin Cheng-Ta; Lin, Ming-Tai; Jaw, Fu-Shan; Chen, Shyh-Jye; Wang, Jou-Kou; Shih, Tiffany Ting-Fang; Wu, Mei-Hwan; Li, Yiu-Wah

2015-11-01

Pediatric cardiac computed tomography (CT) is a noninvasive imaging modality used to clearly demonstrate the anatomical detail of congenital heart diseases. We investigated the impact of cardiac CT on the utilization of cardiac catheterization among children with congenital heart disease. The study sample consisted of 2648 cardiac CT and 3814 cardiac catheterization from 1999 to 2009 for congenital heart diseases. Diagnoses were categorized into 11 disease groups. The numbers of examination, according to the different modalities, were compared using temporal trend analyses. The estimated effective radiation doses (mSv) of CT and catheterization were calculated and compared. The number of CT scans and interventional catheterizations had a slight annual increase of 1.2% and 2.7%, respectively, whereas that of diagnostic catheterization decreased by 6.2% per year. Disease groups fell into two categories according to utilization trend differences between CT and diagnostic catheterization. The increased use of CT reduces the need for diagnostic catheterization in patients with atrioventricular connection disorder, coronary arterial disorder, great vessel disorder, septal disorder, tetralogy of Fallot, and ventriculoarterial connection disorder. Clinicians choose either catheterization or CT, or both examinations, depending on clinical conditions, in patients with semilunar valvular disorder, heterotaxy, myocardial disorder, pericardial disorder, and pulmonary vein disorder. The radiation dose of CT was lower than that of diagnostic cardiac catheterization in all age groups. The use of noninvasive CT in children with selected heart conditions might reduce the use of diagnostic cardiac catheterization. This may release time and facilities within the catheterization laboratory to meet the increasing demand for cardiac interventions. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Trends of perfluorochemicals in Greenland ringed seals and polar bears: indications of shifts to decreasing trends.

PubMed

Rigét, Frank; Bossi, Rossana; Sonne, Christian; Vorkamp, Katrin; Dietz, Rune

2013-11-01

Time-series of perfluorinated alkylated substances (PFASs) in East Greenland polar bears and East and West Greenland ringed seals were updated in order to deduce whether a response to the major reduction in perfluoroalkyl production in the early 2000s had occurred. Previous studies had documented an exponential increase of perfluorooctane sulphonate (PFOS) in liver tissue from both species. In the present study, PFOS was still the far most dominant compound constituting 92% (West Greenland ringed seals), 88% (East Greenland ringed seals) and 85% (East Greenland polar bears). The PFOS concentrations increased up to 2006 with doubling times of approximately 6 years for the ringed seal populations and 14 years in case of polar bears. Since then a rapid decrease has occurred with clearing half-lives of approximately 1, 2 and 4 years, respectively. In polar bears perfluorohexane sulphonate (PFHxS) and perfluorooctane sulphonamide (PFOSA) also showed decreasing trends in recent years as do perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) and perfluoroundecanoic acid (PFUnA). For the West Greenland ringed seal population perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), PFDA and PFUnA peaked in the mid 2000s, whereas PFNA, PFDA and PFUnA in the East Greenland population have been stable or increasing in recent years. The peak of PFASs in Greenland ringed seals and polar bears occurred at a later time than in Canadian seals and polar bears and considerably later than observed in seal species from more southern latitudes. We suggest that this could be explained by the distance to emission hot-spots and differences in long-range transport to the Arctic. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time Trends and Geographic Variation in Use of Minimally Invasive Breast Biopsy

PubMed Central

Zimmermann, Christopher J.; Sheffield, Kristin M.; Duncan, Casey B.; Han, Yimei; Cooksley, Catherine D.; Townsend, Courtney M.; Riall, Taylor S.

2013-01-01

Background Current guidelines recommend minimally invasive breast biopsy (MIBB) as the “gold standard” for the diagnosis of breast lesions. The purpose of this study was to describe geographic patterns and time trends in the use of MIBB in Texas. Methods We used 100% Texas Medicare claims data (2000–2008) to identify women ≥66 years who underwent breast biopsy. Biopsies were classified as open or minimally invasive (MIBB). Time trends, racial/ethnic variation, and geographic variation in the use of biopsy techniques were examined. Results A total of 87,165 breast biopsies were performed on 75,518 breast masses in 67,582 women. 65.8% of the initial biopsies were MIBB. Radiologists performed 70.3% and surgeons 26.2% of MIBB. Surgeons performed 94.2% of open biopsies. Hispanic women were less likely to undergo MIBB (55.9%) compared to white (66.6%) and black (68.9%) women (p<0.0001). Women undergoing MIBB were also more likely to live in metropolitan areas and have higher income and educational levels (p<0.0001). The rate of MIBB increased from 44.4% in 2001 to 79.1% in 2008 (p<0.0001). There are clear geographic patterns in MIBB use with highest use near major cities. While rates are increasing overall, rates of improvement in the use of MIBB vary significantly across geographic regions and remain persistently low in more rural areas. Conclusion Despite an increase in the use of MIBB over time, MIBB use was consistently lower than recommended. We must identify specific barriers in rural areas to effectively change practice and achieve the statewide goal of 90% MIBB. PMID:23376029

Exploratory Analysis of Fast-Food Chain Restaurant Menus Before and After Implementation of Local Calorie-Labeling Policies, 2005–2011

PubMed Central

Namba, Alexa; Leonberg, Beth L.; Wootan, Margo G.

2013-01-01

Introduction Since 2008, several states and municipalities have implemented regulations requiring provision of nutrition information at chain restaurants to address obesity. Although early research into the effect of such labels on consumer decisions has shown mixed results, little information exists on the restaurant industry’s response to labeling. The objective of this exploratory study was to evaluate the effect of menu labeling on fast-food menu offerings over 7 years, from 2005 through 2011. Methods Menus from 5 fast-food chains that had outlets in jurisdictions subject to menu-labeling laws (cases) were compared with menus from 4 fast-food chains operating in jurisdictions not requiring labeling (controls). A trend analysis assessed whether case restaurants improved the healthfulness of their menus relative to the control restaurants. Results Although the overall prevalence of “healthier” food options remained low, a noteworthy increase was seen after 2008 in locations with menu-labeling laws relative to those without such laws. Healthier food options increased from 13% to 20% at case locations while remaining static at 8% at control locations (test for difference in the trend, P = .02). Since 2005, the average calories for an à la carte entrée remained moderately high (approximately 450 kilocalories), with less than 25% of all entrées and sides qualifying as healthier and no clear systematic differences in the trend between chain restaurants in case versus control areas (P ≥ .50). Conclusion These findings suggest that menu labeling has thus far not affected the average nutritional content of fast-food menu items, but it may motivate restaurants to increase the availability of healthier options. PMID:23786908

Exploratory analysis of fast-food chain restaurant menus before and after implementation of local calorie-labeling policies, 2005-2011.

PubMed

Namba, Alexa; Auchincloss, Amy; Leonberg, Beth L; Wootan, Margo G

2013-06-20

Since 2008, several states and municipalities have implemented regulations requiring provision of nutrition information at chain restaurants to address obesity. Although early research into the effect of such labels on consumer decisions has shown mixed results, little information exists on the restaurant industry's response to labeling. The objective of this exploratory study was to evaluate the effect of menu labeling on fast-food menu offerings over 7 years, from 2005 through 2011. Menus from 5 fast-food chains that had outlets in jurisdictions subject to menu-labeling laws (cases) were compared with menus from 4 fast-food chains operating in jurisdictions not requiring labeling (controls). A trend analysis assessed whether case restaurants improved the healthfulness of their menus relative to the control restaurants. Although the overall prevalence of "healthier" food options remained low, a noteworthy increase was seen after 2008 in locations with menu-labeling laws relative to those without such laws. Healthier food options increased from 13% to 20% at case locations while remaining static at 8% at control locations (test for difference in the trend, P = .02). Since 2005, the average calories for an à la carte entrée remained moderately high (approximately 450 kilocalories), with less than 25% of all entrées and sides qualifying as healthier and no clear systematic differences in the trend between chain restaurants in case versus control areas (P ≥ .50). These findings suggest that menu labeling has thus far not affected the average nutritional content of fast-food menu items, but it may motivate restaurants to increase the availability of healthier options.

Response of Water Use Efficiency to Global Environmental Change Based on Output From Terrestrial Biosphere Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Sha; Yu, Bofu; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Ciais, Philippe; Zhang, Yao; Fisher, Joshua B.; Michalak, Anna M.; Wang, Weile; Poulter, Benjamin; Huntzinger, Deborah N.; Niu, Shuli; Mao, Jiafu; Jain, Atul; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Shi, Xiaoying; Ito, Akihiko; Wei, Yaxing; Huang, Yuefei; Wang, Guangqian

2017-11-01

Water use efficiency (WUE), defined as the ratio of gross primary productivity and evapotranspiration at the ecosystem scale, is a critical variable linking the carbon and water cycles. Incorporating a dependency on vapor pressure deficit, apparent underlying WUE (uWUE) provides a better indicator of how terrestrial ecosystems respond to environmental changes than other WUE formulations. Here we used 20th century simulations from four terrestrial biosphere models to develop a novel variance decomposition method. With this method, we attributed variations in apparent uWUE to both the trend and interannual variation of environmental drivers. The secular increase in atmospheric CO2 explained a clear majority of total variation (66 ± 32%: mean ± one standard deviation), followed by positive trends in nitrogen deposition and climate, as well as a negative trend in land use change. In contrast, interannual variation was mostly driven by interannual climate variability. To analyze the mechanism of the CO2 effect, we partitioned the apparent uWUE into the transpiration ratio (transpiration over evapotranspiration) and potential uWUE. The relative increase in potential uWUE parallels that of CO2, but this direct CO2 effect was offset by 20 ± 4% by changes in ecosystem structure, that is, leaf area index for different vegetation types. However, the decrease in transpiration due to stomatal closure with rising CO2 was reduced by 84% by an increase in leaf area index, resulting in small changes in the transpiration ratio. CO2 concentration thus plays a dominant role in driving apparent uWUE variations over time, but its role differs for the two constituent components: potential uWUE and transpiration.

Cost-effectiveness research in cancer therapy: a systematic review of literature trends, methods and the influence of funding.

PubMed

Al-Badriyeh, Daoud; Alameri, Marwah; Al-Okka, Randa

2017-01-27

To perform a first-time analysis of the cost-effectiveness (CE) literature on chemotherapies, of all types, in cancer, in terms of trends and change over time, including the influence of industry funding. Systematic review. A wide range of cancer-related research settings within healthcare, including health systems, hospitals and medical centres. All literature comparative CE research of drug-based cancer therapies in the period 1986 to 2015. Primary outcomes are the literature trends in relation to journal subject category, authorship, research design, data sources, funds and consultation involvement. An additional outcome measure is the association between industry funding and study outcomes. Descriptive statistics and the χ 2 , Fisher exact or Somer's D tests were used to perform non-parametric statistics, with a p value of <0.05 as the statistical significance measure. Total 574 publications were analysed. The drug-related CE literature expands over time, with increased publishing in the healthcare sciences and services journal subject category (p<0.001). The retrospective data collection in studies increased over time (p<0.001). The usage of prospective data, however, has been decreasing (p<0.001) in relation to randomised clinical trials (RCTs), but is unchanging for non-RCT studies. The industry-sponsored CE studies have especially been increasing (p<0.001), in contrast to those sponsored by other sources. While paid consultation involvement grew throughout the years, the declaration of funding for this is relatively limited. Importantly, there is evidence that industry funding is associated with favourable result to the sponsor (p<0.001). This analysis demonstrates clear trends in how the CE cancer research is presented to the practicing community, including in relation to journals, study designs, authorship and consultation, together with increased financial sponsorship by pharmaceutical industries, which may be more influencing study outcomes than other funding sources. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Imported malaria in a cosmopolitan European city: A mirror image of the world epidemiological situation

PubMed Central

Millet, Juan Pablo; Garcia de Olalla, Patricia; Carrillo-Santisteve, Paloma; Gascón, Joaquim; Treviño, Begoña; Muñoz, José; Gómez i Prat, Jordi; Cabezos, Juan; González Cordón, Anna; Caylà, Joan A

2008-01-01

Background International travel and migration have been related with an increase of imported malaria cases. There has been considerable immigration to Barcelona from low-income countries (LIC) in recent years. The objective is to describe the epidemiology and to determine the trends of the disease in Barcelona. Methods Analysis of the cases notified among city residents between 1989 and 2005. Patients were classified as: tourists, voluntary workers, resident immigrants (visiting friends and relatives, VFR) and recently arrived immigrants. An analysis was conducted using the chi2 test and comparison of means. As a measure of association we calculated the Relative Risk (RR) and Odds Ratio (OR) with a Confidence Interval of 95% (CI) and carried out a trends analysis. Results Of the total of 1,579 imported cases notified, 997 (63.1%) lived in Barcelona city, and 55.1% were male. The mean age of patients was 32.7 years. The incidence increased from 2.4 cases/100,000 in 1989 to 3.5 cases/100,000 in 2005 (RR 1.46 CI:1.36–1.55). This increase was not statistically significant (trends analysis, p = 0.36). In terms of reason for travelling, 40.7% were VFR, 33.6% tourists, 12.1% voluntary workers and 13.6% were recently arrived immigrants. The most frequent species found was Plasmodium falciparum (71.3%), mainly in visitors to Africa (OR = 2.3, CI = 1.7–3.2). The vast majority (82.2%) had had some contact with Africa (35.9% with Equatorial Guinea, a Spanish ex-colony) and 96.6% had not completed chemoprophylaxis. Six deaths were observed, all tourists who had travelled to Africa and not taken chemoprophylaxis (3.9% fatality rate). Conclusion Over the period studied there is an increase in malaria incidence, however the trend is not statistically significant. Lack of chemoprophylaxis compliance and the association between Africa and P. falciparum are very clear in the imported cases. Most of the patients with malaria did not take chemoprophylaxis. PMID:18397524

Energy conversion approaches and materials for high-efficiency photovoltaics.

PubMed

Green, Martin A; Bremner, Stephen P

2016-12-20

The past five years have seen significant cost reductions in photovoltaics and a correspondingly strong increase in uptake, with photovoltaics now positioned to provide one of the lowest-cost options for future electricity generation. What is becoming clear as the industry develops is that area-related costs, such as costs of encapsulation and field-installation, are increasingly important components of the total costs of photovoltaic electricity generation, with this trend expected to continue. Improved energy-conversion efficiency directly reduces such costs, with increased manufacturing volume likely to drive down the additional costs associated with implementing higher efficiencies. This suggests the industry will evolve beyond the standard single-junction solar cells that currently dominate commercial production, where energy-conversion efficiencies are fundamentally constrained by Shockley-Queisser limits to practical values below 30%. This Review assesses the overall prospects for a range of approaches that can potentially exceed these limits, based on ultimate efficiency prospects, material requirements and developmental outlook.

Covered today, sick tomorrow? Trends and correlates of children's health insurance instability.

PubMed

Hill, Heather D; Shaefer, H Luke

2011-10-01

Many children with health insurance will experience gaps in coverage over time, potentially reducing their access to and use of preventive health care services. This article uses the Survey of Income and Program Participation to examine how the stability of children's health insurance changed between 1990 and 2005 and to identify dynamic aspects of family life associated with transitions in coverage. Children's health insurance instability has increased since the early 1990s, due to greater movement between insured and uninsured states and between private and public insurance coverage. Changes in the employment and marital status of the family head are highly associated with an increased risk of a child losing and gaining public and private coverage, largely in hypothesized directions. The exception is that marital dissolution and job loss are associated with an increased probability of a child losing public insurance, despite there being no clear policy explanation for such a relationship.

Quantification of spatial temporal variability of snow cover and hydro-climatic variables based on multi-source remote sensing data in the Swat watershed, Hindukush Mountains, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anjum, Muhammad Naveed; Ding, Yongjian; Shangguan, Donghui; Liu, Junguo; Ahmad, Ijaz; Ijaz, Muhammad Wajid; Khan, Muhammad Imran

2018-02-01

The northern part of Hindukush Mountains has a perplexing environment due to the influence of adjacent mountains of Himalaya, Karakoram, and Tibetan Plateau. Although reliable evidences of climate change are available; however, a clear knowledge of snow cover dynamics in the context of climate change is missing for this region. In this study, we used various remotely sensed (TRMM precipitation product, while MODIS temperature and snow cover products) and gauge-based datasets to quantify the spatiotemporal variability of climatic variables and their turn effects over the snow cover area (SCA) and river discharge in the Swat watershed, northern Hindukush Mountains, Pakistan. The Mann-Kendall method and Sen's slope estimator were used to estimate the trends in SCA and hydro-climatic variables, at 5% significant level (P = 0.05). Results show that the winter and springs temperatures have increased (at the rate of 0.079 and 0.059 °C year-1, respectively), while decreasing in the summer and autumn (at the rate of 0.049 and 0.070 °C year-1, respectively). Basin-wide increasing tendency of precipitation was identified with a highest increasing rate of 3.563 mm year-1 in the spring season. A decreasing trend in the winter SCA (at the rate of -0.275% year-1) and increasing trends in other seasons were identified. An increasing tendency of river discharge on annual and seasonal scales was also witnessed. The seasonal variations in discharge showed significant positive and negative relationships with temperature and SCA, respectively. We conclude that the future variations in the temperature and SCA in the higher altitudes of the Swat watershed could substantially affect the seasonality of the river discharge. Moreover, it implies that the effect of ongoing global warming on the SCA in the snowmelt-dominated river basins needs to be considered for sustainable regional planning and management of water resources, hydropower production, and downstream irrigation scheduling.

4000 years of human dietary evolution in central Germany, from the first farmers to the first elites

PubMed Central

Knipper, Corina; Oelze, Vicky M.; Nicklisch, Nicole; Stecher, Marcus; Schlenker, Björn; Ganslmeier, Robert; Fragata, Matthias; Friederich, Susanne; Dresely, Veit; Hubensack, Vera; Brandt, Guido; Döhle, Hans-Jürgen; Vach, Werner; Schwarz, Ralf; Metzner-Nebelsick, Carola; Meller, Harald; Alt, Kurt W.

2018-01-01

Investigation of human diet during the Neolithic has often been limited to a few archaeological cultures or single sites. In order to provide insight into the development of human food consumption and husbandry strategies, our study explores bone collagen carbon and nitrogen isotope data from 466 human and 105 faunal individuals from 26 sites in central Germany. It is the most extensive data set to date from an enclosed geographic microregion, covering 4,000 years of agricultural history from the Early Neolithic to the Early Bronze Age. The animal data show that a variety of pastures and dietary resources were explored, but that these changed remarkably little over time. In the human δ15N however we found a significant increase with time across the different archaeological cultures. This trend could be observed in all time periods and archaeological cultures (Bell Beaker phenomenon excluded), even on continuously populated sites. Since there was no such trend in faunal isotope values, we were able largely to exclude manuring as the cause of this effect. Based on the rich interdisciplinary data from this region and archaeological period we can argue that meat consumption increased with the increasing duration of farming subsistence. In δ13C, we could not observe any clear increasing or decreasing trends during the archaeological time periods, either for humans or for animals, which would have suggested significant changes in the environment and landscape use. We discovered sex-related dietary differences, with males of all archaeological periods having higher δ15N values than females, and an age-related increasing consumption of animal protein. An initial decrease of δ15N-values at the age of 1–2 years reveals partial weaning, while complete weaning took place at the age of 3–4 years. PMID:29584767

Drought evolution characteristics and precipitation intensity changes during alternating dry-wet changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, D. H.; Wu, D.; Huang, R.; Wang, L. N.; Yang, G. Y.

2013-03-01

According to the Chinese climate divisions and the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin digital elevation map, the basin is divided into seven sub-regions by means of cluster analysis of the basin meteorological stations using the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network method. Based on the daily precipitation data of 171 stations for the years 1961-2011, the drought frequency changes with different magnitudes are analyzed and the number of consecutive days without precipitation is used to identify the drought magnitudes. The first precipitation intensity after a drought period is analyzed with the Pearson-III frequency curve, then the relationship between rainfall intensity and different drought magnitudes is observed, as are the drought frequency changes for different years. The results of the study indicated the following: (1) the occurrence frequency of different drought level shows an overall increasing trend; there is no clear interdecadal change shown, but the spatial difference is significant. The occurrence frequencies of severe and extraordinary drought are higher on the North China Plain, Hetao Plains in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia, as well as on the Inner Mongolia and the Loess Plateaus, and in the Fen-Wei Valley basin. (2) As the drought level increases, the probability of extraordinary rainstorm becomes lower, and the frequency of occurrence of spatial changes in different precipitation intensities vary. In the areas surrounding Bo Sea, the Shandong Peninsula and the Huai River downstream, as the drought level increases, the occurrence frequency of different precipitation intensities first shows a decreasing trend, which becomes an increasing trend when extraordinary drought occurs. In the middle and upper reaches of the Huai River basin, on the Hai River basin piedmont plain and Hetao Plains in Ningxia-Inner Mongolia, Inner Mongolia and Loess Plateaus, and in the Fen-Wei Valley basin, the probability of the different precipitation intensities shows an overall decreasing trend. The mountains with high attitude and Tibetan Plateau are located at high altitudes where the variation of different precipitation intensities with the increase in drought level is relatively complex. (3) As the drought frequency increases, areas I, II and V which are located on the coastal and in the river basin are vulnerable to extreme precipitation processes; areas III, IV, VI and VII are located in the inland area where heavier precipitation is not likely to occur.

Increasing trends of sleep complaints in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Santos-Silva, Rogerio; Bittencourt, Lia Rita Azeredo; Pires, Maria Laura Nogueira; de Mello, Marco Tulio; Taddei, Jose Augusto; Benedito-Silva, Ana Amelia; Pompeia, Celine; Tufik, Sergio

2010-06-01

The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence of sleep habits and complaints and to estimate the secular trends through three population-based surveys carried out in 1987, 1995, and 2007 in the general adult population of the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Surveys were performed using the same three-stage cluster-sampling technique in three consecutive decades to obtain representative samples of the inhabitants of Sao Paulo with respect to gender, age (20-80 years), and socio-economic status. Sample sizes were 1000 volunteers in 1987 and 1995 surveys and 1101 in a 2007 survey. In each survey, the UNIFESP Sleep Questionnaire was administered face-to-face in each household selected. For 1987, 1995, and 2007, respectively, difficulty initiating sleep (weighted frequency %; 95% CI) [(13.9; 11.9-16.2), (19.15; 16.8-21.6), and (25.0; 22.5-27.8)], difficulty maintaining sleep [(15.8; 13.7-18.2), (27.6; 24.9-30.4), and (36.5; 33.5-39.5)], and early morning awakening [(10.6; 8.8-12.7), (14.2; 12.2-16.5), and (26.7; 24-29.6)] increased in the general population over time, mostly in women. Habitual snoring was the most commonly reported complaint across decades and was more prevalent in men. There was no statistically significant difference in snoring complaints between 1987 (21.5; 19.1-24.2) and 1995 (19.0; 16.7-21.6), but a significant increase was noted in 2007 (41.7; 38.6-44.8). Nightmares, bruxism, leg cramps, and somnambulism complaints were significantly higher in 2007 compared to 1987 and 1995. All were more frequent in women. This is the first study comparing sleep complaints in probabilistic population-based samples from the same metropolitan area, using the same methodology across three consecutive decades. Clear trends of increasing sleep complaints were observed, which increased faster between 1995 and 2007 than from 1987 to 1995. These secular trends should be considered a relevant public health issue and support the need for development of health care and educational strategies to supply the population's increased need for information on sleep disorders and their consequences. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Europe experienced a "warming hole" in autumn in the second half of the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cahynova, M.; Pokorna, L.; Huth, R.

2012-12-01

Recent global warming has not been ubiquitous - there might be seasons, regions, and time periods with clearly discernible zero or downward air temperature trends. Regions that are not warming or are even cooling - also known as "warming holes" - have been previously detected mainly in autumn in the second half of the 20th century in large parts of North America as well as in central and eastern Europe. In this study we use daily maximum and minimum temperature (TX and TN, respectively) and daily temperature range (DTR) at 136 stations from the ECA&D database in Europe and the Mediterranean in the period 1961-2000 to precisely locate their seasonal and sub-seasonal trends in space and within the course of the year, and to assess the effect of circulation changes on these observed trends. Linear trends are calculated for moving "seasons" of differing lengths (10, 20, 30, 60, and 90 days), each shifted by one day. Thus we obtain 365 values of "moving trends" for each station and each variant of season length. The day-to-day variability of these trends is greatest for short "seasons" of 10 and 20 days. Trends of the 90-day seasons are the most stable throughout the year and also bear the lowest trend magnitudes. Cluster analysis of the annual course of "moving trends" reveals relatively well-defined regions with similar trend behavior. Over most of Europe, the observed warming is greatest in winter, and the highest trend magnitudes are reached by TN in eastern Europe. Two regions stand out of this general picture: in Iceland and the Mediterranean, winter shows almost no trends, while in summer we see a pronounced warming. Significant autumn cooling centered on mid-November was found in eastern and southeastern Europe for both TX and TN; in many other regions trends are close to zero in the same period. Other clearly non-warming (or even cooling) periods occur in western and central Europe in April and June. Trends of DTR are largely inconclusive and no general picture can be drawn. Changes in atmospheric circulation may be one of the factors that influence the observed temperature trends. We use one daily circulation type classification from the European project "COST733", calculated over 11 pre-defined spatial domains, and a simple decomposition method to assess the effect of circulation changes on "moving trends" of temperature and DTR. Our results vary greatly between stations and times of the year; all in all, circulation changes are only responsible for a minor part of the observed trends. At most stations, the only substantial circulation effect is found in winter. Our results suggest that using different time scales apart from the conventional three-month seasons is highly desirable for a proper location of trends within the course of the year.

12-year trends in occupational class differences in short sickness absence among young women.

PubMed

Hilla, Sumanen; Jouni, Lahti; Eero, Lahelma; Olli, Pietiläinen; Ossi, Rahkonen

2015-06-01

Socioeconomic differences in sickness absence are well established among middle-aged employees but poorly known among younger employees, in particular for shorter spells. We examined trends in occupational class differences in short sickness absence among young women. The data were obtained from the registers of the City of Helsinki, Finland, and included female employees aged 18-34 years from 2002 to 2013. Self-certified (1-3 days) sickness absence spells were examined. Occupational class was classified into four hierarchical categories. Joinpoint regression models were used to identify major changes in sickness absence trends. Short sickness absence increased until 2008, after which it decreased in all occupational classes except manual workers. Differences in sickness absence between occupational classes remained over time. Routine non-manuals had the highest amount of short sickness absence, while managers and professionals had the smallest amount. Manual workers had somewhat less short sickness absence than routine non-manuals and semi-professionals. The socioeconomic differences in short sickness absence were clear among young women but not fully consistent as routine non-manuals tended to have more sickness absence than manual workers. Preventive measures are needed to narrow socioeconomic differences in young women's sickness absence especially among routine non-manuals. © 2015 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Time series analysis of patients seeking orthodontic treatment at Seoul National University Dental Hospital over the past decade

PubMed Central

Lim, Hyun-Woo; Park, Ji-Hoon; Park, Hyun-Hee

2017-01-01

Objective This paper describes changes in the characteristics of patients seeking orthodontic treatment over the past decade and the treatment they received, to identify any seasonal variations or trends. Methods This single-center retrospective cohort study included all patients who presented to Seoul National University Dental Hospital for orthodontic diagnosis and treatment between January 1, 2005 and December 31, 2015. The study analyzed a set of heterogeneous variables grouped into the following categories: demographic (age, gender, and address), clinical (Angle Classification, anomaly, mode of orthodontic treatment, removable appliances for Phase 1 treatment, fixed appliances for Phase 2 treatment, orthognathic surgery, extraction, mini-plate, mini-implant, and patient transfer) and time-related variables (date of first visit and orthodontic treatment time). Time series analysis was applied to each variable. Results The sample included 14,510 patients with a median age of 19.5 years. The number of patients and their ages demonstrated a clear seasonal variation, which peaked in the summer and winter. Increasing trends were observed for the proportion of male patients, use of non-extraction treatment modality, use of ceramic brackets, patients from provinces outside the Seoul region at large, patients transferred from private practitioners, and patients who underwent orthognathic surgery performed by university surgeons. Decreasing trends included the use of metal brackets and orthodontic treatment time. Conclusions Time series analysis revealed a seasonal variation in some characteristics, and several variables showed changing trends over the past decade. PMID:28861391

Digital image classification approach for estimating forest clearing and regrowth rates and trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sader, Steven A.

1987-01-01

A technique is presented to monitor vegetation changes for a selected study area in Costa Rica. A normalized difference vegetation index was computed for three dates of Landsat satellite data and a modified parallelipiped classifier was employed to generate a multitemporal greenness image representing all three dates. A second-generation image was created by partitioning the intensity levels at each date into high, medium, and low and thereby reducing the number of classes to 21. A sampling technique was applied to describe forest and other land cover change occurring between time periods based on interpretation of aerial photography that closely matched the dates of satellite acquisition. Comparison of the Landsat-derived classes with the photo-interpreted sample areas can provide a basis for evaluating the satellite monitoring technique and the accuracy of estimating forest clearing and regrowth rates and trends.

Sensor Networks in the Low Lands

PubMed Central

Meratnia, Nirvana; van der Zwaag, Berend Jan; van Dijk, Hylke W.; Bijwaard, Dennis J. A.; Havinga, Paul J. M.

2010-01-01

This paper provides an overview of scientific and industrial developments of the last decade in the area of sensor networks in The Netherlands (Low Lands). The goal is to highlight areas in which the Netherlands has made most contributions and is currently a dominant player in the field of sensor networks. On the one hand, motivations, addressed topics, and initiatives taken in this period are presented, while on the other hand, special emphasis is given to identifying current and future trends and formulating a vision for the coming five to ten years. The presented overview and trend analysis clearly show that Dutch research and industrial efforts, in line with recent worldwide developments in the field of sensor technology, present a clear shift from sensor node platforms, operating systems, communication, networking, and data management aspects of the sensor networks to reasoning/cognition, control, and actuation. PMID:22163669

Cybersecurity in healthcare: A systematic review of modern threats and trends.

PubMed

Kruse, Clemens Scott; Frederick, Benjamin; Jacobson, Taylor; Monticone, D Kyle

2017-01-01

The adoption of healthcare technology is arduous, and it requires planning and implementation time. Healthcare organizations are vulnerable to modern trends and threats because it has not kept up with threats. The objective of this systematic review is to identify cybersecurity trends, including ransomware, and identify possible solutions by querying academic literature. The reviewers conducted three separate searches through the CINAHL and PubMed (MEDLINE) and the Nursing and Allied Health Source via ProQuest databases. Using key words with Boolean operators, database filters, and hand screening, we identified 31 articles that met the objective of the review. The analysis of 31 articles showed the healthcare industry lags behind in security. Like other industries, healthcare should clearly define cybersecurity duties, establish clear procedures for upgrading software and handling a data breach, use VLANs and deauthentication and cloud-based computing, and to train their users not to open suspicious code. The healthcare industry is a prime target for medical information theft as it lags behind other leading industries in securing vital data. It is imperative that time and funding is invested in maintaining and ensuring the protection of healthcare technology and the confidentially of patient information from unauthorized access.

Spatial and temporal trends in poly- and per-fluorinated compounds in the Laurentian Great Lakes Erie, Ontario and St. Clair.

PubMed

Codling, Garry; Sturchio, Neil C; Rockne, Karl J; Li, An; Peng, H; Tse, Timothy J; Jones, Paul D; Giesy, John P

2018-06-01

The temporal and spatial trends in sediment of 22 poly- and perfluorinated (PFAS) compounds were investigated in the southern Great Lakes Erie and Ontario as well as Lake St. Clair. Surface concentrations measured by Ponar grab samples indicated a trend for greater concentrations near to urban sites. Mean concentrations ∑ 22 PFAS were 15.6, 18.2 and 19 ng g -1 dm for Lakes St. Clair, Erie and Ontario, respectively. Perfluoro-n-butanoic acid (PFBA) and Perfluoro-n-hexanoic acid (PFHxA) were frequently determined in surface sediment and upper core samples indicating a shift in use patterns. Where PFBA was identified it was at relatively great concentrations typically >10 ng g -1 dm. However as PFBA and PFHxA are less likely to bind to sediment they may be indicative of pore water concentrations Sedimentation rates between Lake Erie and Lake Ontario differ greatly with greater rates observed in Lake Erie. In Lake Ontario, in general concentrations of PFAS observed in core samples closely follow the increase in use along with an observable change due to regulation implementation in the 1970s for water protection. However some of the more water soluble PFAS were observed in deeper core layers than the time of production could account for, indicating potential diffusion within the sediment. Given the greater sedimentation rates in Lake Erie, it was hoped to observe in greater resolution changes since the mid-1990s. However, though some decrease was observed at some locations the results are not clear. Many cores in Lake Erie had clearly observable gas voids, indicative of gas ebullition activity due to biogenic production, there were also observable mussel beds that could indicate mixing by bioturbation of core layers. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does mesoscale matters in decadal changes observed in the northern Canary upwelling system?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Relvas, P.; Luís, J.; Santos, A. M. P.

2009-04-01

The Western Iberia constitutes the northern limb of the Canary Current Upwelling System, one of the four Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems of the world ocean. The strong dynamic link between the atmosphere and the ocean makes these systems highly sensitive to global change, ideal to monitor and investigate its effects. In order to investigate decadal changes of the mesoscale patterns in the Northern Canary upwelling system (off Western Iberia), the field of the satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) trends was built at the pixel scale (4x4 km) for the period 1985-2007, based on the monthly mean data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) on board NOAA series satellites, provided by the NASA Physical Oceanography Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC) at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The time series were limited to the nighttime passes to avoid the solar heating effect and a suite of procedures were followed to guarantee that the temperature trends were not biased towards the seasonally more abundant summer data, when the sky is considerably clear. A robust linear fit was applied to each individual pixel, crossing along the time the same pixel in all the processed monthly mean AVHRR SST images from 1985 until 2007. The field of the SST trends was created upon the slopes of the linear fits applied to each pixel. Monthly mean SST time series from the one degree enhanced International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS) and from near-shore measurements collected on a daily basis by the Portuguese Meteorological Office (IM) are also used to compare the results and extend the analysis back until 1960. A generalized warming trend is detected in the coastal waters off Western Iberia during the last decades, no matter which data set we analyse. However, significant spatial differences in the warming rates are observed in the satellite-derived SST trends. Remarkably, off the southern part of the Western Iberia the known upwelling pattern is clearly reflected in the warming field. There, the coastal upwelled waters show a weak warming trend when compared with the offshore waters. If we assume that the SST contrast between coastal and offshore waters is a proxy for the upwelling intensity, then this fact suggests the enhancement of the upwelling regime off SW Iberia since 1985. Although the seasonal nature of the upwelling in the region, the strengthening must be significant since it leaves a coherent imprint in the annual warming field. An analysis done on a monthly basis reveals that the central months of the classical upwelling season (July to September) are the responsible for this coherent mesoscale structure observed in the warming field off SW Iberia. The same conclusions are not clear for the mesoscale structure further north, where no significant differences are observed between the coastal and offshore warming rates. To investigate if our results, obtained for the period with satellite coverage (1985-2007), could be extended or not until 1960, we computed an upwelling index as the SST difference between coastal and offshore ICOADS SST. The analysis revealed that the trends are different whether we consider the whole time series or only the period investigated with the satellite imagery. We can suppose a relatively unchanged upwelling regime if we consider the period 1960-2005, but a rapid increase of intensity if we consider the period from 1985 onwards, particularly in the most southern regions, in agreement with the satellite imagery analysis. Our present results point out that mesoscale activity can account for larger changes in local SST than global average trends. In Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems, where mesoscale structures play a major role in the description of the upwelling regime, to rely on sparse spatial observations to hypothesize about the decadal behaviour of the upwelling intensity at the basin scale may be questionable.

Evolution of sulfur speciation in bitumen through hydrous pyrolysis induced thermal maturation of Jordanian Ghareb Formation oil shale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Birdwell, Justin E.; Lewan, Michael; Bake, Kyle D.; Bolin, Trudy B.; Craddock, Paul R.; Forsythe, Julia C.; Pomerantz, Andrew E.

2018-01-01

Previous studies on the distribution of bulk sulfur species in bitumen before and after artificial thermal maturation using various pyrolysis methods have indicated that the quantities of reactive (sulfide, sulfoxide) and thermally stable (thiophene) sulfur moieties change following consistent trends under increasing thermal stress. These trends show that sulfur distributions change during maturation in ways that are similar to those of carbon, most clearly illustrated by the increase in aromatic sulfur (thiophenic) as a function of thermal maturity. In this study, we have examined the sulfur moiety distributions of retained bitumen from a set of pre- and post-pyrolysis rock samples in an organic sulfur-rich, calcareous oil shale from the Upper Cretaceous Ghareb Formation. Samples collected from outcrop in Jordan were subjected to hydrous pyrolysis (HP). Sulfur speciation in extracted bitumens was examined using K-edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy. The most substantial changes in sulfur distribution occurred at temperatures up to the point of maximum bitumen generation (∼300 °C) as determined from comparison of the total organic carbon content for samples before and after extraction. Organic sulfide in bitumen decreased with increasing temperature at relatively low thermal stress (200–300 °C) and was not detected in extracts from rocks subjected to HP at temperatures above around 300 °C. Sulfoxide content increased between 200 and 280 °C, but decreased at higher temperatures. The concentration of thiophenic sulfur increased up to 300 °C, and remained essentially stable under increasing thermal stress (mg-S/g-bitumen basis). The ratio of stable-to-reactive+stable sulfur moieties ([thiophene/(sulfide+sulfoxide+thiophene)], T/SST) followed a sigmoidal trend with HP temperature, increasing slightly up to 240 °C, followed by a substantial increase between 240 and 320 °C, and approaching a constant value (∼0.95) at temperatures above 320 °C. This sulfur moiety ratio appears to provide complementary thermal maturity information to geochemical parameters derived from other analyses of extracted source rocks.

Parental Gender Equality and Use of Oral Contraceptives Among Young Women: A Longitudinal, Population-based Study in Sweden.

PubMed

Rashid, Mamunur; Kader, Manzur

2014-07-01

Little is known about how parental gender equality early in their children lives can influence daughters' decision to use contraceptive pills. The study aimed at exploring whether maternal working time and paternity leave in Sweden during the first two years of their daughters' lives is associated with the use of oral contraceptives when they are adolescents or young adults. The study population was selected from a cohort of all Swedish fathers and mothers who had their first child together between 1988 and 1989 (n = 57,520 family units). Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the association. Mothers' longer working time was mildly associated with daughters' oral contraceptive pill use, though no clear trend was observed. Longer paternity leave periods (>30 days) were not associated with use of oral contraceptives among their daughters, but 1-30 day periods showed a mild positive association. For maternal working time, there seems to be an association, but trends by working hours are not clear. There is no clear association between paternity leave during the first two years of their daughters' life and the use of oral contraceptives when they are adolescents and young adults.

Human-biometeorological assessment of increasing summertime extreme heat events in Shanghai, China during 1973-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Qinqin; Ge, Quansheng; Xi, Jianchao; Zheng, Jingyun

2017-11-01

Summertime extreme heat events, defined by the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), have shown increasing trends in Shanghai from 1973 to 2015. There is a clear shift to higher temperatures for the daily maximum UTCI values, and the number of days with daily maximum UTCI exceeding 38 °C significantly increased by 4.34 days/10a. An upward trend of 3.67 days/10a was detected for the number of hot days which also displays an abrupt increase around 1998. Both the frequency and total duration of heat waves have significantly increased by 0.77 times/10a and 3.51 days/10a respectively. Their inter-decadal variations indicate a three-part division of the study period showing more and more heat waves and longer total duration, which are 1.0 times/a and 4.13 days/a for 1973-1987, 1.71 times/a and 7.64 days/a for 1988-2001, and 3.57 times/a and 16.0 days/a for 2002-2015. In addition to that are more occurrences of long-lasting heat waves. Compared with the UTCI, air temperature-based definitions have indicated substantially higher increases in extreme heat events, especially for hot nights. The relatively low humidity and strong wind speeds in the twenty-first century are considered to be responsible for this difference. Our study provides a more in-depth case to monitor extreme heat events under the combining effects of air temperature, humidity, wind speeds, total cloud cover, etc. and can support studies over other regions.

Patterns of beverage use across the lifecycle.

PubMed

Popkin, Barry M

2010-04-26

Total beverage intake patterns have changed greatly over the past half century. The present research was conducted to evaluate historic and current patterns of beverage consumption of adults and children in the U.S. Data were drawn from food balance surveys along with two-day beverage intake averages and were weighted to be nationally representative. A marked slow continuous shift downward in total milk intake with a shift toward an increased proportion of reduced fat milk was determined. The biggest shifts in beverage consumption among children aged 2 to18 were an increase in sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) (from 87 to 154kcal/d), a smaller increase in juices (+21kcal/d), and a decrease in milk consumption (-91kcal/d). Data among adults aged 19 and older indicated that SSB intake has more than doubled. Water intake was highly variable, with a marked increase in bottled water intake but no clear trend in total water intake. Overall trends by age were presented and indicated that age-related beverage intake, both in ounces and kcal/day, decreased sharply for adults aged 60 and older. Kcal/d values ranged from a low of 283 for those over age 60 to a peak of 533 for those aged 19 to39 to 367 for 2 to 6year olds. The consumer shift toward increased levels of SSBs and alcohol, limited amounts of reduced fat milk along with a continued consumption of whole milk, and increased juice intake represent issues to address from a public health perspective. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Patterns of beverage use across the lifecycle

PubMed Central

Popkin, Barry M.

2010-01-01

POPKIN, BM. Patterns of beverage use across the lifecycle. PHYSIOL BEHAV xxxx 000-000, 2009. — Total beverage intake patterns have changed greatly over the past half century. The present research was conducted to evaluate historic and current patterns of beverage consumption of adults and children in the U.S. Data were drawn from food balance surveys along with two-day beverage intake averages and were weighted to be nationally representative. A marked slow continuous shift downward in total milk intake with a shift toward an increased proportion of reduced fat milk was determined. The biggest shifts in beverage consumption among children aged 2 to 18 were an increase in sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) (from 87 to 154 kcal/d), a smaller increase in juices (+21kcal/d), and a decrease in milk consumption (-91 kcal/d). Data among adults aged 19 and older indicated that SSB intake has more than doubled. Water intake was highly variable, with a marked increase in bottled water intake but no clear trend in total water intake. Overall trends by age were presented and indicated that age-related beverage intake, both in ounces and kcals/day, decreased sharply for adults aged 60 and older. Kcal/d values ranged from a low of 283 for those over age 60 to a peak of 533 for those aged 19 to39 to 367 for 2 to 6 year olds. The consumer shift toward increased levels of SSBs and alcohol, limited amounts of reduced fat milk along with a continued consumption of whole milk, and increased juice intake represent issues to address from a public health perspective. PMID:20045423

Observation-based trends in ambient ozone in the Czech Republic over the past two decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hůnová, Iva; Bäumelt, Vít

2018-01-01

We present the trends in ambient ozone concentrations based on high quality data measured continuously at 26 long-term monitoring sites (9 urban, 17 rural including 10 mountain stations) in the Czech Republic in 1994-2015. We considered annual and summer medians, the 10th and 98th percentiles, maximum daily 8-h running mean concentrations and exposure index AOT40F. For all indicators taken into account except for the 10th percentile, our results showed a similar pattern with significant decreasing trends for about one half of the examined sites. We obtained similar results for all types of sites. The most pronounced decrease in O3 concentrations was recorded at mountain sites. Namely, at the Šerlich mountain site, with an overall decrease per year in annual median by 0.43 ppb, summer median by 1.17 ppb, maximal daily 8-h average by 0.45 ppb, the 10th percentile by 0.62 ppb. The peak concentrations indicated by the 98th percentile and AOT40F decreased most at urban site České Budějovice by 0.75 ppb and 0.84 ppb h per year, respectively. For sites exhibiting significant decreasing trends, an overall decrease per year in annual median was 0.22 ppb, in summer median 0.41 ppb, in the 10th percentile 0.23 ppb, in the 98th percentile 0.53 ppb, and in AOT40F 0.51 ppb h. A significant increasing trend was detected only in the 10th percentile at just three sites, with the highest increase of 0.19 ppb per year recorded at the rural site Sněžník. Moreover, a consistent decrease in limit value exceedances was detected, with by far the highest violation recorded in the meteorologically exceptional year of 2003. Out of the 26 sites under review, seven have not recorded a significant decreasing trend in O3 in any of the considered statistics. The lack of trends in O3 at these seven sites is likely associated with changing time patterns in local NO and NO2 emissions: in particular, with the increasing ratio in NO2/NOx. There is an obvious geographical pattern in recorded O3 trends: most of the sites with no trend detected are situated in the North-western region of the CR with numerous energy-producing large emission sources, partly denitrified recently. Our results clearly indicated that, for O3 decrease, the ratio between individual NO and NO2 forms is critical, and that a simultaneous significant decrease in both NO and NO2 concentrations is not a sufficient prerequisite. Apart from changes in car fleet in urban areas or near motorways, this factor might be of particular relevance in formerly highly polluted areas, where emissions from large power plants recently substantially decreased.

Public outreach, participatory communication, and communication impact assessment in Paris flood resilience policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicari, Rosa; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

2017-04-01

Adverse social impacts can reduce the intended benefits of a project aimed to reduce flood risks, and can threaten its viability if they are severe enough. In some other cases, the diverse impacts may mutually counter-balance each other, by furthermore strengthening and amplifying the social resilience. Social changes include those associated with the phenomenon known as the social construction of reality. In the case of proposed actions that involve controversy, attitudes and perceptions toward a proposed policy change are one of the variables that must be considered in determining the significance of impacts. This research entails an analysis of public authorities strategic documents developed during the last ten years in the context of strengthening Paris flood resilience. The review highlights a clear trend to encourage citizen participation and to share responsibilities with the population. This trend does not only express a political will to apply the principle of subsidiarity and decentralise risk management, it also springs from a growing awareness among public institutions of the impact that social construction of the reality can have. Hence the communication between local governments and citizens, especially a two-ways dialogue (i.e. participatory communication), has become a keystone of resilience strategies since it facilitates mutual understanding, shared goals identification and cooperation. More and more frequently flood resilience projects entail a communication strategy or focus on communication actions. However not all these project identify clear communication objectives, target audiences or monitor communication impact. Measuring communication indicators allows decision makers to compare the costs of communication actions with the economic, environmental, social, and sanitary costs of non-action. Those metrics also help to set up clear communication objectives at the beginning of a project, to evaluate and improve management capacities, to increase transparency and stakeholder involvement during and after a project. This research is being undertaken in partnership with Veolia.

Trends in pesticide concentrations in corn-belt streams, 1996-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sullivan, Daniel J.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Lorenz, David L.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Martin, Jeffrey D.

2009-01-01

Trends in the concentrations of commonly occurring pesticides in the Corn Belt of the United States were assessed, and the performance and application of several statistical methods for trend analysis were evaluated. Trends in the concentrations of 11 pesticides with sufficient data for trend assessment were assessed at up to 31 stream sites for two time periods: 1996–2002 and 2000–2006. Pesticides included in the trend analyses were atrazine, acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, simazine, metribuzin, prometon, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon.The statistical methods applied and compared were (1) a modified version of the nonparametric seasonal Kendall test (SEAKEN), (2) a modified version of the Regional Kendall test, (3) a parametric regression model with seasonal wave (SEAWAVE), and (4) a version of SEAWAVE with adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q). The SEAKEN test is a statistical hypothesis test for detecting monotonic trends in seasonal time-series data such as pesticide concentrations at a particular site. Trends across a region, represented by multiple sites, were evaluated using the regional seasonal Kendall test, which computes a test for an overall trend within a region by computing a score for each season at each site and adding the scores to compute the total for the region. The SEAWAVE model is a parametric regression model specifically designed for analyzing seasonal variability and trends in pesticide concentrations. The SEAWAVE-Q model accounts for the effect of changing flow conditions in order to separate changes caused by hydrologic trends from changes caused by other factors, such as pesticide use.There was broad, general agreement between unadjusted trends (no adjustment for streamflow effects) identified by the SEAKEN and SEAWAVE methods, including the regional seasonal Kendall test. Only about 10 percent of the paired comparisons between SEAKEN and SEAWAVE indicated a difference in the direction of trend, and none of these had differences significant at the 10-percent significance level. This consistency of results supports the validity and robustness of all three approaches as trend analysis tools. The SEAWAVE method is favored, however, because it has less restrictive data requirements, enabling analysis for more site/pesticide combinations, and can incorporate adjustment for streamflow (SEAWAVE-Q) with substantially fewer measurements than the flow-adjustment procedure used with SEAKEN.Analysis of flow-adjusted trends is preferable to analysis of non-adjusted trends for evaluating potential effects of changes in pesticide use or management practices because flow-adjusted trends account for the influence of flow-related variability.Analysis of flow-adjusted trends by SEAWAVE-Q showed that all of the pesticides assessed, except simazine and acetochlor, were dominated by varying degrees of concentration downtrends in one or both analysis periods. Atrazine, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin—all major corn herbicides, as well as prometon and chlorpyrifos, showed more prevalent concentration downtrends during 1996–2002 compared to 2000–2006. Diazinon had no clear trends during 1996–2002, but had predominantly downward trends during 2000–2006. Acetochlor trends were mixed during 1996–2002 and slightly upward during 2000–2006, but most of the trends were not statistically significant. Simazine concentrations trended upward at most sites during both 1996–2002 and 2000–2006.Comparison of concentration trends to agricultural-use trends indicated similarity in direction and magnitude for acetochlor, metolachlor, alachlor, cyanazine, EPTC, and metribuzin. Concentration downtrends for atrazine, chlorpyrifos, and diazinon were steeper than agricultural-use downtrends at some sites, indicating the possibility that agricultural management practices may have increasingly reduced transport to streams (particularly atrazine) or, for chlorpyrifos and diazinon, that nonagricultural uses declined substantially. Concentration uptrends for simazine generally were steeper than agricultural-use uptrends, indicating the possibility that nonagricultural uses of this herbicide increased during the study period.

State of the art of geoscience libraries and information services

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pruett, N.J.

Geoscience libraries and geoscience information services are closely related. Both are trying to meet the needs of the geoscientists for information and data. Both are also being affected by many trends: increased availability of personal computers; decreased costs of machine readable storage; increased availability of maps in digital format (Pallatto, 1986); progress in graphic displays and in developing Geographic Information System, (GIS) (Kelly and Phillips, 1986); development in artificial intelligence; and the availability of new formats (e.g. CD-ROM). Some additional factors are at work at changing the role of libraries: libraries are coming to recognize the impossibility of collecting everythingmore » and the validity of Bradford's Law unobtrustive studies of library reference services have pointed out that only 50% of the questions are answered correctly it is clear that the number of databases is increasing although good figures for specifically geoscience databases are not available; lists of numeric database are beginning to appear; evaluative (as opposed to purely descriptive) reviews of available bibliographic databases are beginning to appear; more and more libraries are getting online catalogs and results of studies of users of online catalog are being used to improve catalog design; and research is raising consciousness about the value of; and research is raising consciousness about the value of information. All these trends are having or will have an effect on geoscience information.« less

Petrologic considerations for hot dry rock geothermal site selection in the Clear Lake Region, California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stimac, J.; Goff, F.; Hearn, B.C. Jr.

1992-01-01

The Clear Lake area is well known for anomalous heat flow, thermal springs, hydrothermal mineral deposits, and Quaternary volcanism. These factors, along with the apparent lack of a large reservoir of geothermal fluid north of Collayomi fault make the Clear Lake area an attractive target for hot dry rock (HDR) geothermal development. Petrologic considerations provide some constraints on site selection for HDR development. Spatial and temporal trends in volcanism in the Coast Ranges indicate that magmatism has migrated to the north with time, paralleling passage of the Mendocino triple junction and propagation of the San Andreas fault. Volcanism in themore » region may have resulted from upwelling of hot asthenosphere along the southern margin of the subducted segment of the Gorda plate. Spatial and temporal trends of volcanism within the Clear Lake volcanic field are similar to larger-scale trends of Neogene volcanism in the Cost Ranges. Volcanism (especially for silicic compositions) shows a general migration to the north over the {approximately}2 Ma history of the field, with the youngest two silicic centers located at Mt. Konocti and Borax Lake. The Mt. Konocti system (active from {approximately} 0.6 to 0.3 Ma) was large and long-lived, whereas the Borax Lake system is much smaller but younger (0.09 Ma). Remnants of silicic magma bodies under Mt. Konocti may be in the latter stages of cooling, whereas a magma body centered under Borax Lake may be in the early stages of development. The existence of an upper crustal silicic magma body of under Borax Lake has yet to be demonstrated by passive geophysics, however, subsurface temperatures in the area as high (> 200{degrees}C at 2000 m) as those beneath the Mt. Konocti area. Based on petrologic considerations alone, the Mt. Konocti-Borax Lake area appears to be the most logical choice for HDR geothermal development in the region.« less

What was driving land-scape drying in the Czech Republic between 1961 and 2012?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hlavinka, Petr; Trnka, Miroslav; Brázdil, Rudolf; Balek, Jan; Semerádová, Daniela; Možný, Martin; Štěpánek, Petr; Dobrovolný, Petr; Zahradníček, Pavel; Dubrovský, Martin; Eitzinger, Josef; Fuchs, Brian; Svoboda, Mark; Hayes, Michael; Žalud, Zdeněk

2015-04-01

The drying trends in the Czech Republic especially during May and June are of great concern as they influence the key part of growing season in the region. The fact that April-June period of 2001-2012 showed 50% increase of drought probability compared to 1961-1980 is alarming. In the same time the probability of extreme drought was found to be also rising significantly. This study tries to understand what has driven reported changes in the soil moisture especially during the warm half of the year. Therefore trends of global radiation, temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, reference and actual evapotranspiration, snow cover but also start of key phenology phases were assessed and their relationship with the changes in the soil moisture analyzed. In addition measured pan-evaporation data as well as results of studies were used to assess reliability of the reported trends. We have found that increased global radiation and air temperature together with decreased relative humidity (all significant at 0.05) lead the increase of the reference evapotranspiration in all months of growing season. That was the case especially in April, May and August when over 80% of the territory showed statistically significant trends in reference evapotranspiration values. This finding was shown to be consistent with the observed pan evaporation (1968-2012) that was characterized by increasing trends especially during April-June period. These changes in combination with the earlier end of snow cover and earlier start of growing season (in some regions by up to 20 days) led to increased actual evapotranspiration at the start of growing season that tends to deplete the soil moisture earlier, leaving landscape more exposed to impacts of rainfall variability. These results support the concerns about the potentially increased severity of drought events in Central Europe. While the evaporative demand is clearly increasing, it is not matched by the similar increase of precipitation thus leading to higher rate of soil moisture withdrawal by plants leaving less water for latter part of growing season. The reported trend patterns are of particular importance with regard to the expected climate change given the robustness and consistency of the trends shown, and the fact that they can be align with existing climate model projections. Finally comparing results of our analysis with available literature we also point out how significantly different might be outcomes of large-scale studies from regionalized assessment. The results have been submitted to International Journal of Climatology. The research was funded by projects "Establishment of International Scientific Team Focused on Drought Research" (no. OP VK CZ.1.07/2.3.00/20.0248) and KONTAKT LH110010 helped plan and execute this study. Petr Hlavinka and Michael Hayes were supported by project "Partnership in Climate Research and Adaptation Strategies" (no. CZ.1.07/2.4.00/31.0056), Rudolf Brázdil and Petr Dobrovolný by projects of the Grant Agency of the Czech Republic (P209/11/0956 and 13-04291S/P209, respectively), and Petr Štěpánek, Martin Možný and Zdeněk Žalud by project of the National Agency for Agricultural Research no. QI91C054, QJ1310123.

Global Precipitation Analyses at Time Scales of Monthly to 3-Hourly

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George; Curtis, Scott; Bolvin, David; Nelkin, Eric; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Global precipitation analysis covering the last few decades and the impact of the new TRMM precipitation observations are discussed. The 20+ year, monthly, globally complete precipitation analysis of the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP/GEWEX) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is used to explore global and regional variations and trends and is compared to the much shorter TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) tropical data set. The GPCP data set shows no significant trend in precipitation over the twenty years, unlike the positive trend in global surface temperatures over the past century. Regional trends are also analyzed. A trend pattern that is a combination of both El Nino and La Nina precipitation features is evident in the Goodyear data set. This pattern is related to an increase with time in the number of combined months of El Nino and La Nina during the Goodyear period. Monthly anomalies of precipitation are related to ENRON variations with clear signals extending into middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. The GPCP daily, 1 degree latitude-longitude analysis, which is available from January 1997 to the present is described and the evolution of precipitation patterns on this time scale related to El Nino and La Nina is described. Finally, a TRMM-based Based analysis is described that uses TRMM to calibrate polar-orbit microwave observations from SSM/I and geosynchronous OR observations and merges the various calibrated observations into a final, Baehr resolution map. This TRMM standard product will be available for the entire TRMM period (January Represent). A real-time version of this merged product is being produced and is available at 0.25 degree latitude-longitude resolution over the latitude range from 50 deg. N -50 deg. S. Examples will be shown, including its use in monitoring flood conditions.

Opportunity at Concepci?n Crater, Seen from Orbit

NASA Image and Video Library

2010-03-24

This image, acquired by NASA Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, shows the rover Opportunity perched on the edge of Concepci?n crater, a fresh crater with dark rays that clearly overprint the north-trending, wind-shaped ripples, in Meridiani Planum.

Long-term temperature observations from the troposphere to upper mesosphere over Mauna Loa, HI (19.5N, 155.6W) and Table Mountain, CA (34.4N, 117.7W) by JPL Lidars and nearby Radiosondes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, T.; Leblanc, T.; McDermid, S.; Wu, D. L.

2007-12-01

The JPL Rayleigh lidars at Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO), HI (19.5N, 155.6W) and Table Mountain Observatory (TMO), CA (34.4N, 117.7W) have been operated for the regular nighttime data acquisition of temperature since 1994 and 1989 respectively. Using the monthly mean temperature vertical profiles observed by the JPL lidars (35- 85km) and nearby radiosondes (5-30km), and with the linear regression analysis, we are able to extract the temperature trend, solar cycle, El Nino South Oscillation (ENSO), and Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) signals from the troposphere to upper mesosphere over MLO and TMO. The temperature trends show different behaviors at two sites, minor trend at MLO, but more negative trend at TMO. The solar cycle responses in temperature are generally positive above the middle stratosphere at both sites, but negative response at MLO and positive at TMO below. During the El Nino events, the warmer temperatures in the troposphere and upper mesosphere, and the colder temperatures in the stratosphere and lower mesosphere were observed at MLO and almost visa verse at TMO. The significant QBO oscillations were observed in the stratosphere with amplitudes of ~2-3K and with clearer downward phase progression at MLO than that at TMO. The mesospheric QBO near 75-85km is clearly present at both sites with amplitude of ~2K and with longer vertical wavelength than that in stratosphere. In addition, we calculated the GW variances using lidar temperature profiles with 30min and 1km resolutions in the upper stratosphere (38-50km) and lower mesosphere (50-62km), and nearby radiosondes in the lower stratosphere (18-30km). The monthly mean GW variances clearly show an annual oscillation with a maximum in the winter and minimum in the summer. The QBO signature could be clearly seen in the lower stratosphere. In the upper stratosphere, a longer period oscillation (~5-6 years) with maxima in 2000-2001 and 2006 was revealed to synchronize with the solar maximum and minimum. No clear signature of GW activity in the lower mesosphere could be associated to that in the upper stratosphere, suggesting that part of gravity waves may either dissipated or reflected when crossing the stratopause region.

Geospatial strategy for sustainable management of municipal solid waste for growing urban environment.

PubMed

Pandey, Prem Chandra; Sharma, Laxmi Kant; Nathawat, Mahendra Singh

2012-04-01

This paper presents the implementation of a Geospatial approach for improving the Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) disposal suitability site assessment in growing urban environment. The increasing trend of population growth and the absolute amounts of waste disposed of worldwide have increased substantially reflecting changes in consumption patterns, consequently worldwide. MSW is now a bigger problem than ever. Despite an increase in alternative techniques for disposing of waste, land-filling remains the primary means. In this context, the pressures and requirements placed on decision makers dealing with land-filling by government and society have increased, as they now have to make decisions taking into considerations environmental safety and economic practicality. The waste disposed by the municipal corporation in the Bhagalpur City (India) is thought to be different from the landfill waste where clearly scientific criterion for locating suitable disposal sites does not seem to exist. The location of disposal sites of Bhagalpur City represents the unconsciousness about the environmental and public health hazards arising from disposing of waste in improper location. Concerning about urban environment and health aspects of people, a good method of waste management and appropriate technologies needed for urban area of Bhagalpur city to improve this trend using Multi Criteria Geographical Information System and Remote Sensing for selection of suitable disposal sites. The purpose of GIS was to perform process to part restricted to highly suitable land followed by using chosen criteria. GIS modeling with overlay operation has been used to find the suitability site for MSW.

Neutron activation analysis of thermal power plant ash and surrounding area soils.

PubMed

Al-Masri, M S; Haddad, Kh; Alsomel, N; Sarhil, A

2015-08-01

Elemental concentrations of As, Cd, Co, Cr, Fe, Hg, Mo, Ni, Se, and Zn have been determined in fly and bottom ash collected from Syrian power plants fired by heavy oil and natural gas using instrumental neutron activation analysis. The results showed that all elements were more concentrated in fly ash than in the fly ash; there was a clear increasing trend of the elemental concentrations in the fly ash along the flue gas pathway. The annual emission of elements was estimated. Elemental concentrations were higher inside the campus area than in surrounding areas, and the lowest values were found in natural-gas-fired power plant. In addition, the levels have decreased as the distance from power plant campus increases. However, the levels in the surrounding villages were within the Syrian standard for agriculture soil.

The role of steroid hormone supplementation in non-assisted reproductive technology treatments for unexplained infertility.

PubMed

Quaas, Alexander M; Hansen, Karl R

2016-12-01

Fertility treatment strategies are evolving, with a more rapid transition to assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatments after unsuccessful non-ART treatments. This trend increases the potential importance of adjuvant treatments in non-ART cycles, such as steroid hormone supplementation. It has been established that success rates of ART treatments are increased with the use of luteal support with progesterone. In the setting of non-ART cycles, however, the evidence is less clear, and clinical practices vary widely between providers and clinics. In this review, we aimed to provide an overview of the current evidence for the use of steroid hormone supplementation, including progesterone for luteal support, estrogens, androgens, and mineralocorticoids, in the setting of non-ART treatments for ovulatory women. Copyright © 2016 American Society for Reproductive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mentoring: leadership, learning, legacy.

PubMed

Friedman, Paula K

2006-01-01

As the dental profession develops over the next few decades, there will be identifiable changes in the demography of the profession. Enrollment trends reflect a growing number of women in dental schools and in the dental profession. There is an increasing number of dentists--men and women--from countries and cultures outside of the United States. The profession must be prepared to address the question of how to engage women--as well as minorities--in more active and visible roles in organized dentistry. The challenge is clear, and the outcome will provide an indicator to the strength of our professional associations in the future. Mentoring of women dentists is one effective way of creating a pathway to participation.

Plasticity in probabilistic reaction norms for maturation in a salmonid fish

PubMed Central

Morita, Kentaro; Tsuboi, Jun-ichi; Nagasawa, Toru

2009-01-01

The relationship between body size and the probability of maturing, often referred to as the probabilistic maturation reaction norm (PMRN), has been increasingly used to infer genetic variation in maturation schedule. Despite this trend, few studies have directly evaluated plasticity in the PMRN. A transplant experiment using white-spotted charr demonstrated that the PMRN for precocious males exhibited plasticity. A smaller threshold size at maturity occurred in charr inhabiting narrow streams where more refuges are probably available for small charr, which in turn might enhance the reproductive success of sneaker precocious males. Our findings suggested that plastic effects should clearly be included in investigations of variation in PMRNs. PMID:19493875

Monitoring vegetation dynamics with medium resolution MODIS-EVI time series at sub-regional scale in southern Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubovyk, Olena; Landmann, Tobias; Erasmus, Barend F. N.; Tewes, Andreas; Schellberg, Jürgen

2015-06-01

Currently there is a lack of knowledge on spatio-temporal patterns of land surface dynamics at medium spatial scale in southern Africa, even though this information is essential for better understanding of ecosystem response to climatic variability and human-induced land transformations. In this study, we analysed vegetation dynamics across a large area in southern Africa using the 14-years (2000-2013) of medium spatial resolution (250 m) MODIS-EVI time-series data. Specifically, we investigated temporal changes in the time series of key phenometrics including overall greenness, peak and timing of annual greenness over the monitoring period and study region. In order to specifically capture spatial and per pixel vegetation changes over time, we calculated trends in these phenometrics using a robust trend analysis method. The results showed that interannual vegetation dynamics followed precipitation patterns with clearly differentiated seasonality. The earliest peak greenness during 2000-2013 occurred at the end of January in the year 2000 and the latest peak greenness was observed at the mid of March in 2012. Specifically spatial patterns of long-term vegetation trends allowed mapping areas of (i) decrease or increase in overall greenness, (ii) decrease or increase of peak greenness, and (iii) shifts in timing of occurrence of peak greenness over the 14-year monitoring period. The observed vegetation decline in the study area was mainly attributed to human-induced factors. The obtained information is useful to guide selection of field sites for detailed vegetation studies and land rehabilitation interventions and serve as an input for a range of land surface models.

Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century.

PubMed

Laidre, Kristin L; Stern, Harry; Kovacs, Kit M; Lowry, Lloyd; Moore, Sue E; Regehr, Eric V; Ferguson, Steven H; Wiig, Øystein; Boveng, Peter; Angliss, Robyn P; Born, Erik W; Litovka, Dennis; Quakenbush, Lori; Lydersen, Christian; Vongraven, Dag; Ugarte, Fernando

2015-06-01

Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because of their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment of AMM status nor a standardized metric of sea ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each AMM species and recognized subpopulation. We also examined species diversity, the extent of human use, and temporal trends in sea ice habitat for 12 regions of the Arctic by calculating the dates of spring sea ice retreat and fall sea ice advance from satellite data (1979-2013). Estimates of AMM abundance varied greatly in quality, and few studies were long enough for trend analysis. Of the AMM subpopulations, 78% (61 of 78) are legally harvested for subsistence purposes. Changes in sea ice phenology have been profound. In all regions except the Bering Sea, the duration of the summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased by 5-10 weeks and by >20 weeks in the Barents Sea between 1979 and 2013. In light of generally poor data, the importance of human use, and forecasted environmental changes in the 21st century, we recommend the following for effective AMM conservation: maintain and improve comanagement by local, federal, and international partners; recognize spatial and temporal variability in AMM subpopulation response to climate change; implement monitoring programs with clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts of increased human activity; and recognize the limits of current protected species legislation. © 2015 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Occupational risk factors for endometriosis in a cohort of flight attendants

PubMed Central

Johnson, Candice Y; Grajewski, Barbara; Lawson, Christina C; Whelan, Elizabeth A; Bertke, Stephen J; Tseng, Chih-Yu

2016-01-01

Objectives This study aimed to (i) compare odds of endometriosis in a cohort of flight attendants against a comparison group of teachers and (ii) investigate occupational risk factors for endometriosis among flight attendants. Methods We included 1945 flight attendants and 236 teachers aged 18–45 years. Laparoscopically confirmed endometriosis was self-reported via telephone interview, and flight records were retrieved from airlines to obtain work schedules and assess exposures for flight attendants. We used proportional odds regression to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORadj) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for associations between exposures and endometriosis, adjusting for potential confounders. Results Flight attendants and teachers were equally likely to report endometriosis (ORadj 1.0, 95% CI 0.5–2.2). Among flight attendants, there were no clear trends between estimated cosmic radiation, circadian disruption, or ergonomic exposures and endometriosis. Greater number of flight segments (non-stop flights between two cities) per year was associated with endometriosis (ORadj 2.2, 1.1–4.2 for highest versus lowest quartile, P trend= 0.02) but block hours (taxi plus flight time) per year was not (ORadj 1.2, 95% CI 0.6–2.2 for highest versus lowest quartile, P trend=0.38). Conclusion Flight attendants were no more likely than teachers to report endometriosis. Odds of endometriosis increased with number of flight segments flown per year. This suggests that some aspect of work scheduling is associated with increased risk of endometriosis, or endometriosis symptoms might affect how flight attendants schedule their flights. PMID:26645630

Influence of whitening and regular dentifrices on orthodontic clear ligature color stability.

PubMed

Oliveira, Adauê S; Kaizer, Marina R; Salgado, Vinícius E; Soldati, Dener C; Silva, Roberta C; Moraes, Rafael R

2015-01-01

This study evaluated the effect of brushing orthodontic clear ligatures with a whitening dentifrice containing a blue pigment (Close Up White Now, Unilever, London, UK) on their color stability, when exposed to a staining agent. Ligatures from 3M Unitek (Monrovia, CA, USA) and Morelli (Sorocaba, SP, Brazil) were tested. Baseline color measurements were performed and nonstained groups (control) were stored in distilled water whereas test groups were exposed for 1 hour daily to red wine. Specimens were brushed daily using regular or whitening dentifrice. Color measurements were repeated after 7, 14, 21, and 28 days using a spectrophotometer based on the CIE L*a*b* system. Decreased luminosity (CIE L*), increased red discoloration (CIE a* axis), and increased yellow discoloration (CIE b* axis) were generally observed for ligatures exposed to the staining agent. Color variation was generally lower in specimens brushed with regular dentifrice, but ligatures brushed with whitening dentifrice were generally less red and less yellow than regular dentifrice. The whitening dentifrice led to blue discoloration trend, with visually detectable differences particularly apparent according to storage condition and ligature brand. The whitening dentifrice containing blue pigment did not improve the ligature color stability, but it decreased yellow discoloration and increased a blue coloration. The use of a whitening dentifrice containing blue pigment during orthodontic treatment might decrease the yellow discoloration of elastic ligatures. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Long-term (2001-2012) trends of carbonaceous aerosols from a remote island in the western North Pacific: an outflow region of Asian pollutants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boreddy, Suresh K. R.; Mozammel Haque, M.; Kawamura, Kimitaka

2018-01-01

The present study reports on long-term trends of carbonaceous aerosols in total suspended particulate (TSP) samples collected at Chichijima in the western North Pacific during 2001-2012. Seasonal variations of elemental carbon (EC), organic carbon (OC), and water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) concentrations showed maxima in winter to spring and minima in summer. These seasonal differences in the concentrations of carbonaceous aerosols were associated with the outflows of polluted air masses from East Asia, which are clearly distinguishable from pristine air masses from the central Pacific. The higher concentrations of carbonaceous aerosols during winter to spring are associated with long-range atmospheric transport of East Asian continental polluted air masses, whereas lower concentrations may be due to pristine air masses from the central Pacific in summer. The annual trends of OC / EC (+0.46 % yr-1), WSOC (+0.18 % yr-1) and WSOC / OC (+0.08 % yr-1) showed significant (p < 0.05) increases during the period of 2001-2012, suggesting that photochemical formation of WSOC and its contributions to secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) have increased over the western North Pacific via long-range atmospheric transport. We found a significant increase (+0.33 % yr-1) in nss-K+ / EC ratios, demonstrating that concentrations of biomass-burning-derived carbonaceous aerosols have increased, while those of primary fossil-fuel-derived aerosols have decreased over the western North Pacific. Further, secondary biogenic emissions are also important over the western North Pacific as inferred from a significant increase (+0.14 % yr-1) in the concentrations of methanesulfonate (MSA-, a tracer for biogenic sources). This point was further supported by a moderate correlation (r = 0.40) between WSOC and MSA-. We also found a significant increase in OC / TC (total carbon) and WSOC / TC ratios, further suggesting that photochemical formation of WSOC and its contributions to SOAs have increased over the western North Pacific during 2001-2012 via long-range atmospheric transport from East Asia.

Zoning vulnerability of climate change in variation of amount and trend of precipitation - Case Study: Great Khorasan province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modiri, Ehsan; Modiri, Sadegh

2015-04-01

Climatic hazards have complex nature that many of them are beyond human control. Earth's climate is constantly fluctuating and trying to balance itself. More than 75% of Iran has arid and semi-arid climate thus assessment of climate change induced threats and vulnerabilities is essential. In order to investigate the reason for the changes in amount and trend of precipitation parameter, 17 synoptic stations have been selected in the interval of the establishment time of the station until 2013. These stations are located in three regions: Northern, Razavi and Southern Khorasan. For quality control of data in Monthly, quarterly and annual total precipitation of data were tested and checked by run test. Then probable trends in each of the areas was assessed by Kendall-tau test. Total annual precipitation of each station is the important factor that increase the sensitivity of vulnerability in the area with low rainfall. Annual amount of precipitation moving from north to south has been declining, though in different fields that they have different geomorphologic characteristics controversies occur. But clearly can be observed average of precipitation decline with decreasing latitude. There were positive trends in the annual precipitation in 6 stations, negative trends in 10 stations, as well as one station, has no trend. The remarkable notice is that all stations have a positive trend were in the northern region in the case study. These stations had been in ranging from none to Moderate classification of threats and vulnerability. After the initialization parameters to classify levels of risks and vulnerability, the two measures of mean annual precipitation and the trends of this fluctuation were combined together. This classification was created in five level for stations. Accordingly Golmakan, Ghochan, Torbate heydarieh, Bojnord and Mashhad were in none threat level. Khoor of Birjand and Boshruyeh have had complete stage of the threat level and had the greatest meteorological perspective risk. Finally, after determining the degree of threats, meteorological vulnerability zoning map was produced by kriging interpolation method and utilizing geographic information systems (GIS). It showed most studied areas were in complete level of investigation. Keywords: Vulnerability, Climate threats, GIS, Zoning, Precipitation, Crisis management.

A long term study of the relations between erythemal UV-B irradiance, total ozone column, and aerosol optical depth at central Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palancar, Gustavo G.; Olcese, Luis E.; Achad, Mariana; López, María Laura; Toselli, Beatriz M.

2017-09-01

Global ultraviolet-B irradiance (UV-B, 280-315 nm) measurements made at the campus of the University of Córdoba, Argentina were analyzed to quantify the effects of ozone and aerosols on surface UV-B erythemal irradiance (UVER). The measurements have been carried out with a YES Pyranometer during the period 2000-2013. The effect of ozone and aerosols has been quantified by means of the Radiation Amplification Factor (RAF) and by an aerosol factor (AF, analogous to RAF), respectively. The overall mean RAF under cloudless conditions was (1.2 ± 0.3) %, ranging from 0.67 to 2.10% depending on solar zenith angle (SZA) and on Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD). The RAF increased with the SZA with a clear trend. Similarly, the aerosol effect under almost-constant ozone and SZA showed that, on average, a 1% increase in AOD forced a decrease of (0.15 ± 0.04) % in the UVER, with a range of 0.06 to 0.27 and no defined trend as a function of the SZA. To analyze the effect of absorbing aerosols, an effective single scattering albedo (SSA) was determined by comparing the experimental UVER with calculations carried out with the TUV radiative transfer model.

A kinetic and thermodynamic understanding of O2 tolerance in [NiFe]-hydrogenases

PubMed Central

Cracknell, James A.; Wait, Annemarie F.; Lenz, Oliver; Friedrich, Bärbel; Armstrong, Fraser A.

2009-01-01

In biology, rapid oxidation and evolution of H2 is catalyzed by metalloenzymes known as hydrogenases. These enzymes have unusual active sites, consisting of iron complexed by carbonyl, cyanide, and thiolate ligands, often together with nickel, and are typically inhibited or irreversibly damaged by O2. The Knallgas bacterium Ralstonia eutropha H16 (Re) uses H2 as an energy source with O2 as a terminal electron acceptor, and its membrane-bound uptake [NiFe]-hydrogenase (MBH) is an important example of an “O2-tolerant” hydrogenase. The mechanism of O2 tolerance of Re MBH has been probed by measuring H2 oxidation activity in the presence of O2 over a range of potential, pH and temperature, and comparing with the same dependencies for individual processes involved in the attack by O2 and subsequent reactivation of the active site. Most significantly, O2 tolerance increases with increasing temperature and decreasing potentials. These trends correlate with the trends observed for reactivation kinetics but not for H2 affinity or the kinetics of O2 attack. Clearly, the rate of recovery is a crucial factor. We present a kinetic and thermodynamic model to account for O2 tolerance in Re MBH that may be more widely applied to other [NiFe]-hydrogenases. PMID:19934053

Threshold responses of songbirds to long-term timber management on an active industrial forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Becker, Douglas A.; Wood, Petra Bohall; Keyser, Patrick D.; Wigley, T. Bently; Dellinger, Rachel; Weakland, Cathy A.

2011-01-01

Forest managers often seek to balance economic benefits from timber harvesting with maintenance of habitat for wildlife, ecosystem function, and human uses. Most research on the relationship between avian abundance and active timber management has been short-term, lasting one to two years, creating the need to investigate long-term avian responses and to identify harvest thresholds when a small change in habitat results in a disproportionate response in relative abundance and nest success. Our objectives were to identify trends in relative abundance and nest success and to identify landscape-scale disturbance thresholds for avian species and habitat guilds in response to a variety of harvest treatments (clear-cuts, heavy and light partial harvests) over 14 years. We conducted point counts and monitored nests at an industrial forest in the central Appalachians of West Virginia during 1996–1998, 2001–2003, and 2007–2009. Early successional species increased in relative abundance across all three time periods, whereas interior-edge and forest-interior guilds peaked in relative abundance mid-study after which the forest-interior guild declined. Of 41 species with >10 detections, four (10%) declined significantly, 13 (32%) increased significantly (only three species among all periods), and 9 (22%) peaked in abundance mid-study (over the entire study period, four species had no significant change in abundance, four declined, and one increased). Based on piecewise linear models, forest-interior and interior-edge guilds’ relative abundance harvest thresholds were 28% total harvests (all harvests combined), 10% clear-cut harvests, and 18% light partial harvests, after which abundances declined. Harvest thresholds for the early successional guild were 42% total harvests, 11% clear-cut harvest, and 10% light partial harvests, and relative abundances increased after surpassing thresholds albeit at a reduced rate of increase after the clear-cut threshold. Threshold confidence intervals for individual species overlapped their guild threshold intervals 91% of the time. Even though relative abundance of most species (80%) did not decline as the area affected by timber management increased, implementing management at or below our approximate forest-interior and interior-edge harvest thresholds would reduce the number of declining species by half, maintain higher relative abundances of four species with a net decline in abundance but that peaked in abundance mid-study, and maintain higher relative abundances of ten additional species. In contrast, this management strategy also would prevent the increase in relative abundance of seven species and limit the increase in abundance of three species that increased throughout the study.

[Geriatrics or geriatricization of medicine : Quo vadis geriatrics?

PubMed

Kolb, G F

2017-12-01

This article examines the question whether and how geriatrics will change in the future and whether in view of the demographic changes the trend will go more in the direction of a further expansion of geriatrics or more towards a geriatricization of individual specialist medical fields. The different development of geriatrics in the individual Federal States can only be understood historically and is absolutely problematic against the background of the new hospital remuneration system. Geriatrics is a typical cross-sectional faculty and still has demarcation problems with other faculties but has also not yet clearly defined the core competence. This certainly includes the increasing acquisition of decentralized joint treatment concepts and geriatric counselling services in the future, in addition to the classical assessment instruments. Keywords in association with this are: traumatology and othopedics of the elderly, geriatric neurology and geriatric oncology. Interdisciplinary geriatric expertise is increasingly being requested. Outpatient structures have so far not been prioritized in geriatrics. An independent research is under construction and it is gratifying that academic interest in geriatrics seems to be increasing and new professorial chairs have been established. It is not possible to imagine our hospital without geriatrics; however, there is still a certain imbalance between the clearly increased number of geriatric hospital beds, the representation of geriatrics in large hospitals (e.g. specialized and maximum care hospitals and university clinics), the secure establishment in further education regulations and the lack of a uniform nationwide concept of geriatrics.

Temporal trends in United States dew point temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, Peter J.

2000-07-01

In this study, hourly data for the 1951-1990 period for 178 stations in the coterminous United States were used to establish temporal trends in dew point temperature. Although the data had been quality controlled previously (Robinson, 1998. Monthly variations of dew point temperatures in the coterminous United States. International Journal of Climatology 18: 1539-1556), comparisons of values between nearby stations suggested that instrumental changes, combined with locational changes, may have modified the results by as much as 1°C during the 40-year period. Nevertheless, seasonally averaged results indicated an increase over much of the area, of slightly over 1°C/100 years in spring and autumn, slightly less than this in summer. Winter displayed a drying of over 1°C/100 years. When only the 1961-1990 period was considered, the patterns were similar and trends increased by approximately 1-2°C/100 years, except in autumn, which displayed a slight drying. Analyses for specific stations indicated periods of both increasing and decreasing Td, the change between them varying with observation hour. No single change point was common over a wide area, although January commonly indicated maximum values early in the period in the east and west, and much later in the north-central portion. Rates of increase were generally higher in daytime than at night, especially in summer. Investigation of the inter-decadal differences in dew point, as a function of wind conditions, indicated that changes during calm conditions were commonly similar in magnitude to that of the overall average changes, suggesting an important role for the local hydrologic cycle in driving changes. Other inter-decadal changes could be attributed to the changes in the frequency and moisture content of invading air-streams. This was particularly clear for the changes in north-south flow in the interior.

Hepatitis C testing and re-testing among people attending sexual health services in Australia, and hepatitis C incidence among people with human immunodeficiency virus: analysis of national sentinel surveillance data.

PubMed

Boettiger, David C; Law, Matthew G; Dore, Gregory J; Guy, Rebecca; Callander, Denton; Donovan, Basil; O'Connor, Catherine C; Fairley, Christopher K; Hellard, Margaret; Matthews, Gail

2017-12-01

Direct acting antivirals are expected to drastically reduce the burden of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in people living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). However, rates of HCV testing, re-testing and incident infection in this group remain uncertain in Australia. We assessed trends in HCV testing, re-testing and incident infection among HIV-positive individuals, and evaluated factors associated with HCV re-testing and incident infection. The study population consisted of HIV-positive individuals who visited a sexual health service involved in the Australian Collaboration for Coordinated Enhanced Sentinel Surveillance (ACCESS) between 2007 and 2015. Poisson regression was used to assess trends and to evaluate factors associated with HCV re-testing and incident HCV infection. There were 9227 HIV-positive individuals included in our testing rate analysis. Of 3799 HIV-positive/HCV-negative people that attended an ACCESS sexual health service more than once, 2079 (54.7%) were re-tested for HCV and were therefore eligible for our incidence analysis. The rate of HCV testing increased from 17.1 to 51.4 tests per 100 patient years between 2007 and 2015 (p for trend <0.01). Over the same period, HCV re-testing rates increased from 23.9 to 79.7 tests per 100 person years (p for trend <0.01). A clear increase in testing and re-testing began after 2011. Patients who identified as men who have sex with men and those with a history of injecting drug use experienced high rates of HCV re-testing over the course of the study period. Among those who re-tested, 157 incident HCV infections occurred at a rate of 2.5 events per 100 person years. Between 2007 and 2009, 2010-2011, 2012-2013 and 2014-2015, rates of incident HCV were 0.8, 1.5, 3.9 and 2.7 events per 100 person years, respectively (p for trend <0.01). Incident HCV was strongly associated with a history of injecting drug use. High rates of HCV testing and re-testing among HIV-positive individuals in Australia will assist strategies to achieve HCV elimination through rapid treatment scale up. Continued monitoring of HCV incidence in this population is essential for guiding both HCV prevention and treatment strategies.

Modeling and observations of dust aerosols during the North American Monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arellano, A. F.; Raman, A.; Brost, J.; Sorooshian, A.

2016-12-01

Intense dust storms during North American Monsoon (NAM) pose a significant threat to local/regional air quality, economy, and public health. Convection-driven storms (or haboobs) in Arizona and in the southwest US have been given far less attention compared to those in Africa and Middle East. Blowing dusts from these haboobs typically lasts for 3-6 hours and accumulate more than 1000 µg m-3 of PM10 in the atmosphere. However, it is not clear whether haboobs are increasing in intensity and/or frequency in Arizona. Here, we address two science questions: 1) Do haboobs impact the observed trends in aerosol abundance in the NAM region?, 2) What are our current capabilities and limitations in understanding, monitoring, and assessing haboobs and their impacts? For 1), we calculated the trends of enhancements in aerosol optical depth (AOD) from Terra MODIS over dust hotspots in the NAM alley and and surrounding region (dust cluster). Both show similar decreasing trends before the monsoon. However, during the monsoon, a decreasing trend in AOD is more prominent in the dust cluster than in NAM alley. We attribute this to an apparent modulation of dust in the NAM alley by haboobs. Despite increase in rainfall during this period, we infer that the increase in dust sources in the NAM alley obscures the decreasing AOD trend. For 2), we conducted simulations simulations of these haboobs using WRF-Chem with GOCART AFWA scheme at convective resolving scales ( 1 km). Our case study for the 5 July 2011 haboob indicate that the downbursts occurred near Tucson and generated diverging high intensity winds, resulting to cold pools propagating towards Phoenix. We find that WRF-Chem captures the timing of the haboob but severely underestimates the magnitude of dust concentrations that reached as high as 2000 µg m-3 at USEPA Phoenix stations. The impact of the haboob was seen as far as 350 km northwest of Phoenix at an altitude of 2-4 km on 6 July. We find two major limitations in our simulations: 1) lack of dynamic high resolution land cover for prescribing dust sources, and 2) lack of observing system capability especially high temporal resolution, remotely-sensed measurements for monitoring and assessment. Future geostationary missions together with synergistic use of current and future expansion of in-situ measurements can improve these limitations.

A Stabilizing Feedback Between Cloud Radiative Effects and Greenland Surface Melt: Verification From Multi-year Automatic Weather Station Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zender, C. S.; Wang, W.; van As, D.

2017-12-01

Clouds have strong impacts on Greenland's surface melt through the interaction with the dry atmosphere and reflective surfaces. However, their effects are uncertain due to the lack of in situ observations. To better quantify cloud radiative effects (CRE) in Greenland, we analyze and interpret multi-year radiation measurements from 30 automatic weather stations encompassing a broad range of climatological and topographical conditions. During melt season, clouds warm surface over most of Greenland, meaning the longwave greenhouse effect outweighs the shortwave shading effect; on the other hand, the spatial variability of net (longwave and shortwave) CRE is dominated by shortwave CRE and in turn by surface albedo, which controls the potential absorption of solar radiation when clouds are absent. The net warming effect decreases with shortwave CRE from high to low altitudes and from north to south (Fig. 1). The spatial correlation between albedo and net CRE is strong (r=0.93, p<<0.01). In the accumulation zone, the net CRE seasonal trend is controlled by longwave CRE associated with cloud fraction and liquid water content. It becomes stronger from May to July and stays constant in August. In the ablation zone, albedo determines the net CRE seasonal trend, which decreases from May to July and increases afterwards. On an hourly timescale, we find two distinct radiative states in Greenland (Fig. 2). The clear state is characterized by clear-sky conditions or thin clouds, when albedo and solar zenith angle (SZA) weakly correlates with CRE. The cloudy state is characterized by opaque clouds, when the combination of albedo and SZA strongly correlates with CRE (r=0.85, p<0.01). Although cloud properties intrinsically affect CRE, the large melt-season variability of these two non-cloud factors, albedo and solar zenith angle, explains the majority of the CRE variation in spatial distribution, seasonal trend in the ablation zone, and in hourly variability in the cloudy radiative state. Clouds warm the brighter and colder surfaces of Greenland, enhance snow melt, and tend to lower the albedo. Clouds cool the darker and warmer surfaces, inhibiting snow melt, which increases albedo, and thus stabilizes surface melt. This stabilizing mechanism may also occur over sea ice, helping to forestall surface melt as the Arctic becomes dimmer.

Long-term erythemal UV doses at Sodankylä estimated using total ozone, sunshine duration and snow depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lindfors, A. V.; Arola, A.; Kaurola, J.; Taalas, P.; Svenøe, T.

2003-04-01

A method for estimating daily erythemal UV doses using total ozone, sunshine duration and snow depth has been developed. The method consists of three steps: (1) daily clear-sky UV doses were simulated using the UVSPEC radiative transfer program, with daily values of total ozone as input data, (2) an empirical relationship was sought between the simulated clear-sky UV doses, the measured UV doses and the duration of bright sunshine, (3) daily erythemal UV doses were estimated using this relationship. The method accounts for the varying surface albedo by dividing the period of interest into winter and summer days, depending on the snow depth. Using this method, the daily erythemal UV doses at Sodankylä were estimated for the period 1950--99. This was done using Tromsø's total ozone together with Sodankylä's own sunshine duration and snow depth as input data. Although the method is fairly simple, the results are in good agreement, even on the daily scale, with the UV radiation measured with the Brewer spectrophotometer at Sodankylä. Statistically significant increasing trends in erythemal UV doses of a few percents per decade over the period 1950--99 were found for March and April, suggesting a connection to the stratospheric ozone depletion. For July, on the other hand, a significant decreasing trend of about 3% per decade, supported by the changes in both total ozone and sunshine duration, was found. The produced data set of erythemal UV doses is the longest time series of estimated UV known to the authors.

One Strategy for Reducing Uncertainty in Climate Change Communications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Romm, J.

2011-12-01

Future impacts of climate change are invariably presented with a very wide range of impacts reflecting two different sets of uncertainties. The first concerns our uncertainty about precisely how much greenhouse gas emissions humanity will emit into the atmosphere. The second concerns our uncertainty about precisely what impact those emissions will have on the climate. By failing to distinguish between these two types of uncertainties, climate scientists have not clearly explained to the public and policymakers what the scientific literature suggests is likely to happen if we don't substantially alter our current emissions path. Indeed, much of climate communications has been built around describing the range of impacts from emissions paths that are increasingly implausible given political and technological constraints, such as a stabilization at 450 or 550 parts per million atmospheric of carbon dioxide. For the past decade, human emissions of greenhouse gases have trended near the worst-case scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, emissions paths that reach 800 ppm or even 1000 ppm. The current policies of the two biggest emitters, the United States and China, coupled with the ongoing failure of international negotiations to come to an agreement on restricting emissions, suggests that recent trends will continue for the foreseeable future. This in turn suggests that greater clarity in climate change communications could be achieved by more clearly explaining to the public what the scientific literature suggests the range of impacts are for our current high emissions path. This also suggests that more focus should be given in the scientific literature to better constraining the range of impacts from the high emissions scenarios.

Glycerol dehydration of native and diabetic animal tissues studied by THz-TDS and NMR methods

PubMed Central

Smolyanskaya, O. A.; Schelkanova, I. J.; Kulya, M. S.; Odlyanitskiy, E. L.; Goryachev, I. S.; Tcypkin, A. N.; Grachev, Ya. V.; Toropova, Ya. G.; Tuchin, V. V.

2018-01-01

The optical clearing method has been widely used for different spectral ranges where it provides tissue transparency. In this work, we observed the enhanced penetration of the terahertz waves inside biological samples (skin, kidney, and cornea) treated with glycerol solutions inducing changes of optical and dielectric properties. It was supported by the observed trend of free-to-bound water ratio measured by the nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) method. The terahertz clearing efficiency was found to be less for diabetic samples than for normal ones. Results of the numerical simulation proved that pulse deformation is due to bigger penetration depth caused by the reduction of absorption and refraction at optical clearing. PMID:29541513

Physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of continental rifts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramberg, I. B.; Morgan, P.

1984-01-01

Rifts may be defined as zones beneath which the entire lithosphere has ruptured in extension. They are widespread and occur in a variety of tectonic settings, and range up to 2,600 m.y. in age. The object of this review is to highlight characteristic features of modern and ancient rifts, to emphasize differences and similarities in order to help characterize evolutionary trends, to identify physical conditions favorable for initiation as well as termination of rifting, and to provide constraints for future modeling studies of rifting. Rifts are characterized on the basis of their structural, geomorphic, magmatic and geophysical features and the diverse character of these features and their evolutionary trends through time are discussed. Mechanisms of rifting are critically examined in terms of the physical characteristics and evolutionary trends of rifts, and it is concluded that while simple models can give valuable insight into specific processes of rifting, individual rifts can rarely, if ever, be characterized by well defined trends predicted by these models. More data are required to clearly define evolutionary trends, and the models require development to incorporate the effects of lithospheric heterogeneities and complex geologic histories.

Arctic sea ice decline contributes to thinning lake ice trend in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alexeev, Vladimir; Arp, Christopher D.; Jones, Benjamin M.; Cai, Lei

2016-01-01

Field measurements, satellite observations, and models document a thinning trend in seasonal Arctic lake ice growth, causing a shift from bedfast to floating ice conditions. September sea ice concentrations in the Arctic Ocean since 1991 correlate well (r = +0.69,p < 0.001) to this lake regime shift. To understand how and to what extent sea ice affects lakes, we conducted model experiments to simulate winters with years of high (1991/92) and low (2007/08) sea ice extent for which we also had field measurements and satellite imagery characterizing lake ice conditions. A lake ice growth model forced with Weather Research and Forecasting model output produced a 7% decrease in lake ice growth when 2007/08 sea ice was imposed on 1991/92 climatology and a 9% increase in lake ice growth for the opposing experiment. Here, we clearly link early winter 'ocean-effect' snowfall and warming to reduced lake ice growth. Future reductions in sea ice extent will alter hydrological, biogeochemical, and habitat functioning of Arctic lakes and cause sub-lake permafrost thaw.

Historical trend in heavy metal pollution in core sediments from the Masan Bay, Korea.

PubMed

Cho, Jinhyung; Hyun, Sangmin; Han, J-H; Kim, Suhyun; Shin, Dong-Hyeok

2015-06-15

The spatiotemporal distribution and their mass accumulation rate (MAR) of heavy metals were investigated to evaluate the time-dependent historical trends of heavy metal concentration. The three short cores used for this study were collected from the catchment area (MS-PC5, 60cm length), the central part (MS-PC4, 40cm length) and the offshore (MS-PC2, 60cm length) of the Masan Bay, Korea. The concentration of heavy metals (Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cr and Pb) in catchment area is as much as 1.5-2 times higher than central part of the Bay, and about 2 times higher than offshore area approximately. In particular, MAR of metals (Cu, Zn and Pb) show clear spatiotemporal variation, so that MAR's of heavy metal may provide more accurate information in evaluating the degree of pollution. Temporally, the heavy metal concentration had been increased since the late 1970s, but it seems to decrease again since the 2004yr in catchment area. This may came from concentrated efforts for the government to reduce industrial waste release. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

PubMed

Heinonen, Johannes P M; Palmer, Stephen C F; Redpath, Steve M; Travis, Justin M J

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

Modelling Hen Harrier Dynamics to Inform Human-Wildlife Conflict Resolution: A Spatially-Realistic, Individual-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Heinonen, Johannes P. M.; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Redpath, Steve M.; Travis, Justin M. J.

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions. PMID:25405860

Google Trends terms reporting rhinitis and related topics differ in European countries.

PubMed

Bousquet, J; Agache, I; Anto, J M; Bergmann, K C; Bachert, C; Annesi-Maesano, I; Bousquet, P J; D'Amato, G; Demoly, P; De Vries, G; Eller, E; Fokkens, W J; Fonseca, J; Haahtela, T; Hellings, P W; Just, J; Keil, T; Klimek, L; Kuna, P; Lodrup Carlsen, K C; Mösges, R; Murray, R; Nekam, K; Onorato, G; Papadopoulos, N G; Samolinski, B; Schmid-Grendelmeier, P; Thibaudon, M; Tomazic, P; Triggiani, M; Valiulis, A; Valovirta, E; Van Eerd, M; Wickman, M; Zuberbier, T; Sheikh, A

2017-08-01

Google Trends (GT) searches trends of specific queries in Google and reflects the real-life epidemiology of allergic rhinitis. We compared Google Trends terms related to allergy and rhinitis in all European Union countries, Norway and Switzerland from 1 January 2011 to 20 December 2016. The aim was to assess whether the same terms could be used to report the seasonal variations of allergic diseases. Using the Google Trend 5-year graph, an annual and clear seasonality of queries was found in all countries apart from Cyprus, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Malta. Different terms were found to demonstrate seasonality depending on the country - namely 'hay fever', 'allergy' and 'pollen' - showing cultural differences. A single set of terms cannot be used across all European countries, but allergy seasonality can be compared across Europe providing the above three terms are used. Using longitudinal data in different countries and multiple terms, we identified an awareness-related spike of searches (December 2016). © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Determination of the structures of small gold clusters on stepped magnesia by density functional calculations.

PubMed

Damianos, Konstantina; Ferrando, Riccardo

2012-02-21

The structural modifications of small supported gold clusters caused by realistic surface defects (steps) in the MgO(001) support are investigated by computational methods. The most stable gold cluster structures on a stepped MgO(001) surface are searched for in the size range up to 24 Au atoms, and locally optimized by density-functional calculations. Several structural motifs are found within energy differences of 1 eV: inclined leaflets, arched leaflets, pyramidal hollow cages and compact structures. We show that the interaction with the step clearly modifies the structures with respect to adsorption on the flat defect-free surface. We find that leaflet structures clearly dominate for smaller sizes. These leaflets are either inclined and quasi-horizontal, or arched, at variance with the case of the flat surface in which vertical leaflets prevail. With increasing cluster size pyramidal hollow cages begin to compete against leaflet structures. Cage structures become more and more favourable as size increases. The only exception is size 20, at which the tetrahedron is found as the most stable isomer. This tetrahedron is however quite distorted. The comparison of two different exchange-correlation functionals (Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof and local density approximation) show the same qualitative trends. This journal is © The Royal Society of Chemistry 2012

Review and meta-analysis of trends in precipitation regime in Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caporali, Enrica; Chiarello, Valentina; Defina, Ilaria; Fatichi, Simone

2017-04-01

Research to detect changes in climatic variables has become a topic of particular interest to observe signals of climate change as well as to understand drivers of modifications in water resources availability and suggest management adaptations. We specifically focus on Italy, outlining the "state of the art" of the Italian precipitation regime through a review of 46 published studies on rainfall trend analyses. The aim is to combine a large body of knowledge in a single review and to explain the main patterns of rainfall changes occurred in the last decades. The review results are analyzed for the entire Italian peninsula and separately for three macro areas: North, Central and South&Islands. The attention is focused on three indexes at the annual and seasonal scale: mean Total Precipitation (TP), number of Wet Days (WDs) and Precipitation Intensity (PI). Two other aspects are briefly investigated: drought and extreme rainfall events. Different geographic areas, time series length and number of stations, are taken into account using a "weight factor Fi". Subsequently, for each index, findings in terms of increasing or decreasing trends are collected into five principal categories: Negative (N), Negative Significant (NS), Positive (P), Positive Significant (PS), and No Trend (NT). Overall, there is an agreement about the tendency of the WDs that are decreasing on the whole Italy, with some discrepancies regarding the spring and the summer seasons. This is substantially in agreement with the tendency of the TP, especially at annual scale where the presence of a decreasing trend is detected. An opposite behavior is detected for PI, which increases both on an annual and on a seasonal basis. It is worth to point out that PI is analyzed just in few studies and it is strongly influenced on the classification in precipitation intensity intervals. A general finding is that signal to noise ratio on precipitation metrics is quite low, which hampers a clear definition of changes in rainfall occurred in Italy, especially for extreme events the large variability in space and time precludes robust conclusions despite the long-term records available.

Latitudinal trends and temporal shifts in the catch composition of bottom trawls conducted on the eastern Bering Sea shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevenson, Duane E.; Lauth, Robert R.

2012-06-01

Latitudinal species diversity gradients are well known in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems throughout the world. However, trends in relative abundance and other shifts in community structure with latitude, which can be more sensitive to environmental shifts such as climate change, have received less attention. Here we investigate latitudinal trends in the seafloor community of the eastern Bering Sea using catches of fishes and epibenthic invertebrates in bottom trawl surveys conducted from 1982 to 2010. Our results indicate that the overall biomass of the epibenthic community declines with increasing latitude in the eastern Bering Sea. This latitudinal trend is primarily driven by declining fish catches in the northern Bering Sea, which in turn reflects changes in the structure of the fish community. The fish fauna in northern latitudes is increasingly dominated by gadids, though the species composition of the gadid fauna also changes with latitude, with smaller species becoming more common in the north. The biomass of the invertebrate megafauna remains relatively consistent throughout the eastern Bering Sea, but invertebrates make up a larger proportion of the catch in bottom trawls conducted at higher latitudes. The epibenthic invertebrate megafauna in the eastern Bering Sea is composed primarily of sea stars (Asteriidae) and oregoniid crabs (Chionoecetes and Hyas), though no clear latitudinal trends in the invertebrate community are evident. Limited trawl data from the eastern Chukchi Sea indicate that the fish community farther north is even more heavily dominated by gadids, and the epibenthic invertebrate community is dominated by asteriid sea stars. Temperature data from bottom trawl surveys in the southeastern Bering Sea over the past decade indicate that there was a distinct temperature shift around 2005, and the relatively warm years of 2001-2005 were followed by five relatively cold years. This shift in the summer temperature regime of the Bering Sea has resulted in lower fish catches, particularly in the "cold pool" region (58-61°N), and a higher proportion of epibenthic invertebrates in the bottom trawl catches of the past 5 years.

Spectral variability of plagioclase-mafic mixtures (3): Quantitative analysis applying the MGM algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serventi, Giovanna; Carli, Cristian; Sgavetti, Maria

2015-07-01

Among the techniques to detect planet's mineralogical composition remote sensing, visible and near-infrared (VNIR) reflectance spectroscopy is a powerful tool, because crystal field absorption bands are related to particular transitional metals in well-defined crystal structures, e.g., Fe2+ in M1 and M2 sites of olivine (OL) or pyroxene (PX). Although OL, PX and their mixtures have been widely studied, plagioclase (PL), considered a spectroscopically transparent mineral, has been poorly analyzed. In this work we quantitatively investigate the influence of plagioclase absorption band on the absorption bands of Fe, Mg minerals using the Modified Gaussian Model - MGM (Sunshine, J.M. et al. [1990]. J. Geophys. Res. 95, 6955-6966). We consider three plagioclase compositions of varying FeO wt.% contents and five mafic end-members (1) 56% orthopyroxene and 44% clinopyroxene, (2) 28% olivine and 72% orthopyroxene, (3) 30% orthopyroxene and 70% olivine, (4) 100% olivine and (5) 100% orthopyroxene, at two different particle sizes. The spectral parameters considered here are: band depth, band center, band width, c0 (the continuum intercept) and c1 (the continuum offset). In particular, we show the variation of the plagioclase and composite (plagioclase-olivine) band spectral parameters versus the volumetric iron content related to the plagioclase abundance in mixtures. Generally, increasing the vol. FeO% due to the PL: (1) 1250 nm band deepens with linear trend in mixtures with pyroxenes, while it decreases in mixtures with olivine, with trend shifting from parabolic to linear increasing the olivine content in end-member; (2) 1250 nm band center moves towards longer wavelengths with linear trend in pyroxene-rich mixtures and parabolic trend in olivine-rich mixtures; and (3) 1250 nm band clearly widens with linear trend in olivine-free mixtures, while the widening is only slight in olivine-rich mixtures. We also outline how spectral parameters can be ambiguous leading to an incorrect mineralogical interpretation. Furthermore, we show the presence of an asymmetry of the plagioclase band towards the IR region, resolvable adding a Gaussian in the 1600-1800 nm spectral region.

Association of hemoglobin A1c and glycated albumin with carotid atherosclerosis in community-dwelling Japanese subjects: the Hisayama Study.

PubMed

Mukai, Naoko; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Hata, Jun; Hirakawa, Yoichiro; Ikeda, Fumie; Fukuhara, Masayo; Hotta, Taeko; Koga, Masafumi; Nakamura, Udai; Kang, Dongchon; Kitazono, Takanari; Kiyohara, Yutaka

2015-06-24

It is not clear which glucose measure is more useful in the assessment of atherosclerosis. We investigated the associations of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), glycated albumin (GA), 1,5-anhydroglucitol (1,5-AG), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), and 2-hour postload glucose (PG) with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) in community-dwelling Japanese subjects. A total of 2702 subjects aged 40-79 years underwent a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test and measurements of HbA1c, GA, 1,5-AG, and carotid IMT by ultrasonography in 2007-2008. Carotid wall thickening was defined as a maximum IMT of >1.0 mm. The crude and multivariable-adjusted linear and logistic regression models were used to analyze cross-sectional associations between levels of glycemic measures and carotid IMT. The crude average of the maximum IMT increased significantly with rising quartiles of HbA1c, GA, FPG, and 2-hour PG levels in subjects with and without glucose intolerance (GI), while no clear association was observed for 1,5-AG. After adjustment for other confounding factors, positive trends for HbA1c, GA, and FPG (all p for trend < 0.05), but not 2-hour PG (p = 0.07) remained robust in subjects with GI, but no such associations were found in those without GI. When estimating multivariable-adjusted β values for the associations of 1 SD change in glycemic measures with the maximum IMT in subjects with GI, the magnitude of the influence of HbA1c (β = 0.021), GA (β = 0.024), and FPG (β = 0.024) was larger than that of 2-hour PG (β = 0.014) and 1,5-AG (β = 0.003). The multivariable-adjusted odds ratios for the presence of carotid wall thickening increased significantly with elevating HbA1c, GA, and FPG levels only in subjects with GI (all p for trend < 0.001). Among subjects with GI, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve significantly increased by adding HbA1c (p = 0.04) or GA (p = 0.04), but not 1,5-AG, FPG, or 2-hour PG, to the model including other cardiovascular risk factors. In community-dwelling Japanese subjects with GI, elevated HbA1c, GA, and FPG levels were significantly associated with increased carotid IMT, and HbA1c and GA provided superior discrimination for carotid wall thickening compared to 1,5-AG, FPG, and 2-hour PG, suggesting that HbA1c and GA are useful for assessing carotid atherosclerosis.

Intake of whole apples or clear apple juice has contrasting effects on plasma lipids in healthy volunteers.

PubMed

Ravn-Haren, Gitte; Dragsted, Lars O; Buch-Andersen, Tine; Jensen, Eva N; Jensen, Runa I; Németh-Balogh, Mária; Paulovicsová, Brigita; Bergström, Anders; Wilcks, Andrea; Licht, Tine R; Markowski, Jarosław; Bügel, Susanne

2013-12-01

Fruit consumption is associated with a decreased risk of CVD in cohort studies and is therefore endorsed by health authorities as part of the '5 or more a day' campaigns. A glass of fruit juice is generally counted as one serving. Fruit may cause protection by affecting common risk factors of CVD. Apples are among the most commonly consumed fruits and were chosen for a comprehensive 5 × 4 weeks dietary crossover study to assess the effects of whole apples (550 g/day), apple pomace (22 g/day), clear and cloudy apple juices (500 ml/day), or no supplement on lipoproteins and blood pressure in a group of 23 healthy volunteers. The intervention significantly affected serum total and LDL-cholesterol. Trends towards a lower serum LDL-concentration were observed after whole apple (6.7%), pomace (7.9%) and cloudy juice (2.2%) intake. On the other hand, LDL-cholesterol concentrations increased by 6.9% with clear juice compared to whole apples and pomace. There was no effect on HDL-cholesterol, TAG, weight, waist-to-hip ratio, blood pressure, inflammation (hs-CRP), composition of the gut microbiota or markers of glucose metabolism (insulin, IGF1 and IGFBP3). Apples are rich in polyphenols and pectin, two potentially bioactive constituents; however, these constituents segregate differently during processing into juice products and clear juice is free of pectin and other cell wall components. We conclude that the fibre component is necessary for the cholesterol-lowering effect of apples in healthy humans and that clear apple juice may not be a suitable surrogate for the whole fruit in nutritional recommendations.

Eastern Europe: pronatalist policies and private behavior.

PubMed

David, H P

1982-02-01

Fertility trends in the 9 Eastern European socialist countries (Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, German Democratic Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, USSR, Yugoslavia) are reviewed. Official policy in all these countries but Yugoslavia is explicitly pronatalist to varying degrees. Attention is directed to the following areas: similarities and differences; fertility trends (historical trends, post World War 2 trends, and family size); abortion trends (abortion legislation history, current legislation, abortion data, impact on birth rates, abortion seekers, health risks, and psychological aftereffects); contraceptive availability and practice; pronatal economic incentives (impact on fertility); women's position; and marriage, divorce, and sexual attitudes. The fact that fertility was generally higher in the Eastern European socialist countries than in Western Europe in the mid-1970s is credited to pronatalist measures undertaken when fertility fell or threatened to fall below replacement level (2.1 births/woman) after abortion was liberalized in all countries but Albania, following the lead of the USSR in 1955. Fertility increased where access to abortion was again restricted (mildly in Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary at various times, and severely in Romania in 1966) and/or economic incentives such as birth grants, paid maternity leave, family and child care allowances, and low interest loans to newlyweds were substantially increased (Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Poland to some extent, in the late 1960s and early 1970s, and the German Democratic Republic in 1976). Subsequent declines in Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and Romania suggest that policy induced increases in fertility are short-lived. Couples respond to abortion restrictions by practicing more efficient contraception or resorting to illegal abortion. It is evident that the region's low birth rate is realized mainly with abortion, for withdrawal remains the primary contraceptive method in all countries but Hungary and the German Democratic Republic. It seems that cash incentives have advanced the timing of 1st and 2nd births without substantially increasing the 3rd births required to keep national fertility above replacement level. Demographic factors alone will most likely keep birth rates low in several Eastern European countries during the 1980s and the 1990s. Due to the low birth rates in the 1960s, there will be fewer women in the prime childbearing ages of 20-29 in at least Poland, Czechoslovakia, Bulgaria, and Hungary. It becomes clear that policy efforts to influence private reproductive behavior can only be moderately successful if the living conditions are such that women are determined not to have more than 1 or 2 children.

[Effects of environmental factors on evapotranspiration characteristics of Haloxylon ammodendron plantation in the Minqin oasis-desert ectone, Northwest China.

PubMed

Zhang, Xiao Yan; Chu, Jian Min; Meng, Ping; Zheng, Ning; Yao, Zeng Wang; Wang, He Song; Jiang, Sheng Xiu

2016-08-01

This study continuously measured the evapotranspiration (ET) of degraded Haloxylon ammodendron shrub plantation of Minqin oasis-desert ectone using an eddy covariance system for ET, and TDR for soil moisture profile, analyzing ET in relation to the weather conditions and describing the responses of ET to the microclimate variables in different weather from July 2014 to June 2015. Results showed that the hourly ET dynamics had an apparent seasonal trend in the growing season. This trend gradually increased in the beginning of season from the low level of non-growing season, reached its maximum peak value (0.07 mm·h -1 ) in the most physiologically active period, and decreased to the minimum peak value (0.01 mm·h -1 ) in December. The diurnal change in ET of the plantation depended on the weather conditions. The ET fluctuated less with a small magnitude in a cloud day, but fluctuated obviously with a greater magnitude after rain if weather was clear. After a strong rainfall (>9 mm·d -1 ), ET increased sharply to a high level of 28 folds prior to rain, at which it took four clear days to gradually decease to the pre-rain ET level. The yearly ET over H. ammodendron plantation was 108 mm, equivalent to 98% of annual precipitation. Soil moisture was the water source for ET. Therefore, soil moisture was the dominant factor for theET over the plantation. Net radiation, photosynthesis active radiation, air temperature, and vapor pressure deficit were the microclimate variables to drive the transpiration of vegetation and evaporation over the soil surface, being the major factors forET over the plantation. The regression equation of ET to the dominant factor and major factors had a coefficient of multiple determination (R 2 ) over 0.80.

Long-term trends in the structure of eastern Adriatic littoral fish assemblages: Consequences for fisheries management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stagličić, N.; Matić-Skoko, S.; Pallaoro, A.; Grgičević, R.; Kraljević, M.; Tutman, P.; Dragičević, B.; Dulčić, J.

2011-09-01

Long-term interannual changes in abundance, biomass, diversity and structure of littoral fish assemblages were examined between 1993 and 2009 by experimental trammel net fishing up to six times per year, within the warm period - May to September, at multiple areas along the eastern Adriatic coast with the aim of testing for the consistency of patterns of change across a large spatial scale (˜600 km). The results revealed spatially consistent increasing trends of total fish abundance and biomass growing at an average rate of 15 and 14% per year, respectively. Of the diversity indices analysed, the same pattern of variability was observed for Shannon diversity, while Pielou evenness and average taxonomic distinctness measures Δ ∗ and Δ + showed spatial variability with no obvious temporal trends. Multivariate fish assemblage structure underwent a directional change displaying a similar pattern through time for all the areas. The structural change in fish assemblages generally involved most of the species present in trammel net catches. A large pool of fish species responsible for producing the temporal pattern of assemblage change was relatively different in each of the areas reflecting a large geographic range covered by the study. An analysis of 4 fish species ( Symphodus tinca, Pagellus erythrinus, Mullus surmuletus, Scorpaena porcus) common to each of the study areas as the ones driving the temporal change indicated that there were clear increasing trends of their mean catches across the years at all the study areas. A common pattern among time trajectories across the spatial scale studied implies that the factor affecting the littoral fish assemblages is not localised but regional in nature. As an underlying factor having the potential to induce such widespread and consistent improvements in littoral fish assemblages, a more restrictive artisanal fishery management that has progressively been put in place during the study period, is suggested and discussed.

Change Is Good...Wrong!

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, Franklin

2000-01-01

Change must be personally relevant, beneficial, clearly defined and believed to be achievable. To renovate school facilities, several steps are necessary: identifying future trends and making them personally applicable, establishing a realistic vision, creating functional facility goals, seeing the building as an empty shell, and considering…

Precipitation Impacts of a Shrinking Arctic Sea Ice Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stroeve, J. C.; Frei, A.; Gong, G.; Ghatak, D.; Robinson, D. A.; Kindig, D.

2009-12-01

Since the beginning of the modern satellite record in October 1978, the extent of Arctic sea ice has declined in all months, with the strongest downward trend at the end of the melt season in September. Recently the September trends have accelerated. Through 2001, the extent of September sea ice was decreasing at a rate of -7 per cent per decade. By 2006, the rate of decrease had risen to -8.9 per cent per decade. In September 2007, Arctic sea ice extent fell to its lowest level recorded, 23 per cent below the previous record set in 2005, boosting the downward trend to -10.7 per cent per decade. Ice extent in September 2008 was the second lowest in the satellite record. Including 2008, the trend in September sea ice extent stands at -11.8 percent per decade. Compared to the 1970s, September ice extent has retreated by 40 per cent. Summer 2009 looks to repeat the anomalously low ice conditions that characterized the last couple of years. Scientists have long expected that a shrinking Arctic sea ice cover will lead to strong warming of the overlying atmosphere, and as a result, affect atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns. Recent results show clear evidence of Arctic warming linked to declining ice extent, yet observational evidence for responses of atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns is just beginning to emerge. Rising air temperatures should lead to an increase in the moisture holding capacity of the atmosphere, with the potential to impact autumn precipitation. Although climate models predict a hemispheric wide decrease in snow cover as atmospheric concentrations of GHGs increase, increased precipitation, particular in autumn and winter may result as the Arctic transitions towards a seasonally ice free state. In this study we use atmospheric reanalysis data and a cyclone tracking algorithm to investigate the influence of recent extreme ice loss years on precipitation patterns in the Arctic and the Northern Hemisphere. Results show enhanced cyclone associated precipitation in autumn over Siberia for anomalously low ice years compared with anomalously high ice years along with a strengthening of the North Atlantic Storm track.

Secular trends in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican school-aged children and adolescents.

PubMed

dos Santos, Fernanda Karina; Maia, José A R; Gomes, Thayse Natacha Q F; Daca, Timóteo; Madeira, Aspacia; Katzmarzyk, Peter T; Prista, António

2014-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine secular changes in growth and nutritional status of Mozambican children and adolescents between 1992, 1999 and 2012. 3374 subjects (1600 boys, 1774 girls), distributed across the three time points (523 subjects in 1992; 1565 in 1999; and 1286 in 2012), were studied. Height and weight were measured, BMI was computed, and WHO cut-points were used to define nutritional status. ANCOVA models were used to compare height, weight and BMI across study years; chi-square was used to determine differences in the nutritional status prevalence across the years. Significant differences for boys were found for height and weight (p<0.05) across the three time points, where those from 2012 were the heaviest, but those in 1999 were the tallest, and for BMI the highest value was observed in 2012 (1992<2012, 1999<2012). Among girls, those from 1999 were the tallest (1992<1999, 1999>2012), and those from 2012 had the highest BMI (1999<2012). In general, similar patterns were observed when mean values were analyzed by age. A positive trend was observed for overweight and obesity prevalences, whereas a negative trend emerged for wasting, stunting-wasting (in boys), and normal-weight (in girls); no clear trend was evident for stunting. Significant positive changes in growth and nutritional status were observed among Mozambican youth from 1992 to 2012, which are associated with economic, social and cultural transitional processes, expressing a dual burden in this population, with reduction in malnourished youth in association with an increase in the prevalence of overweight and obesity.

Use and Limitations of a Climate-Quality Data Record to Study Temperature Trends on the Greenland Ice Sheet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hall, Dorothy K.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Shuman, Christopher A.; Koenig, Lora S.; DiGirolamo, Nicolo E.

2011-01-01

Enhanced melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented in recent literature along with surface-temperature increases measured using infrared satellite data since 1981. Using a recently-developed climate-quality data record, 11- and 12-year trends in the clear-sky ice-surface temperature (IST) of the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied using the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) IST product. Daily and monthly MODIS ISTs of the Greenland Ice Sheet beginning on 1 March 2000 and continuing through 31 December 2010 are now available at 6.25-km spatial resolution on a polar stereographic grid as described in Hall et al. (submitted). This record will be elevated in status to a climate-data record (CDR) when more years of data become available either from the MODIS on the Terra or Aqua satellites, or from the Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) to be launched in October 2011. Maps showing the maximum extent of melt for the entire ice sheet and for the six major drainage basins have been developed from the MODIS IST dataset. Twelve-year trends of the duration of the melt season on the ice sheet vary in different drainage basins with some basins melting progressively earlier over the course of the study period. Some (but not all) of the basins also show a progressively-longer duration of melt. IST 12-year trends are compared with in-situ data, and climate data from the Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) Reanalysis.

Simplification of Caribbean reef-fish assemblages over decades of coral reef degradation.

PubMed

Alvarez-Filip, Lorenzo; Paddack, Michelle J; Collen, Ben; Robertson, D Ross; Côté, Isabelle M

2015-01-01

Caribbean coral reefs are becoming structurally simpler, largely due to human impacts. The consequences of this trend for reef-associated communities are currently unclear, but expected to be profound. Here, we assess whether changes in fish assemblages have been non-random over several decades of declining reef structure. More specifically, we predicted that species that depend exclusively on coral reef habitat (i.e., habitat specialists) should be at a disadvantage compared to those that use a broader array of habitats (i.e., habitat generalists). Analysing 3727 abundance trends of 161 Caribbean reef-fishes, surveyed between 1980 and 2006, we found that the trends of habitat-generalists and habitat-specialists differed markedly. The abundance of specialists started to decline in the mid-1980s, reaching a low of ~60% of the 1980 baseline by the mid-1990s. Both the average and the variation in abundance of specialists have increased since the early 2000s, although the average is still well below the baseline level of 1980. This modest recovery occurred despite no clear evidence of a regional recovery in coral reef habitat quality in the Caribbean during the 2000s. In contrast, the abundance of generalist fishes remained relatively stable over the same three decades. Few specialist species are fished, thus their population declines are most likely linked to habitat degradation. These results mirror the observed trends of replacement of specialists by generalists, observed in terrestrial taxa across the globe. A significant challenge that arises from our findings is now to investigate if, and how, such community-level changes in fish populations affect ecosystem function.

Occupational Disparities in the Association between Self-Reported Salt-Eating Habit and Hypertension in Older Adults in Xiamen, China

PubMed Central

Yuan, Manqiong; Chen, Wei; Teng, Bogang; Fang, Ya

2016-01-01

Blood pressure responses to sodium intake are heterogeneous among populations. Few studies have assessed occupational disparities in the association between sodium intake and hypertension in older people. We used cross-sectional data from 14,292 participants aged 60 years or older in Xiamen, China, in 2013. Self-reported salt-eating habit was examined with three levels: low, medium, and high. The main lifetime occupation was classified into indoor laborer and outdoor laborer. Multivariable logistic regression was used to examine associations of hypertension with self-reported salt-eating habit, main lifetime occupation, and their interactions by adjusting for some covariates, with further stratification by sex. Overall, 13,738 participants had complete data, of whom 30.22% had hypertension. The prevalence of hypertension was 31.57%, 28.63%, and 31.97% in participants who reported to have low, medium, and high salt-eating habit, respectively. Outdoor laborers presented significantly lower prevalence of hypertension than indoor laborers (26.04% vs. 34.26%, p < 0.001). Indoor laborers with high salt-eating habit had the greatest odds of hypertension (OR = 1.32, 95% CI [1.09–1.59]). An increased trend of odds in eating habit as salt-heavier was presented in indoor laborers (p-trend = 0.048), especially for women (p-trend = 0.001). No clear trend presented in men. Conclusively, sex-specific occupational disparities exist in the association between self-reported salt-eating habit and hypertension in older individuals. Overlooking the potential moderating role of sex and occupation might affect the relationship between sodium intake and hypertension. PMID:26805865

Influence of estrogen receptor status on dietary risk factors for breast cancer.

PubMed Central

Hislop, T G; Kan, L; Coldman, A J; Band, P R; Brauer, G

1988-01-01

It has been suggested that the relation between diet and breast cancer may depend on estrogen receptor (ER) status. We examined the responses to a self-administered questionnaire on frequency of consumption of various foods by 493 women with breast cancer (160 with ER-negative tumours and 333 with ER-positive tumours) and 527 controls whose menopausal status was known. Analysis of the reported consumption of foods selected for their fat or carotene content showed no clear distinction in dietary factors between the ER-negative and ER-positive groups. Frequent consumption of meat fats generally increased the risk of both ER-negative and ER-positive tumours; there were no clear trends in risk associated with vegetable consumption for either ER group. Fish was the only item affecting the risk for ER-negative and ER-positive tumours differently, frequent consumption reducing the risk for the former (p = 0.02). The results do not support the hypothesis that ER status influences the relation between dietary fat consumption and risk of breast cancer. PMID:3342359

Antimony and arsenic exhibit contrasting spatial distributions in the sediment and vegetation of a contaminated wetland.

PubMed

Warnken, Jan; Ohlsson, Rohana; Welsh, David T; Teasdale, Peter R; Chelsky, Ariella; Bennett, William W

2017-08-01

Antimony is a priority environmental contaminant that is relatively poorly studied compared to other trace metal(loid)s. In particular, the behaviour of antimony in wetland sediments, where anaerobic conditions often dominate, has received considerably less attention compared to well-drained terrestrial soil environments. Here we report the results of a spatial assessment of antimony in the sediments and vegetation of a freshwater wetland exposed to stibnite tailings for the past forty years. The concentration of antimony in the sediment decreased rapidly with distance from the tailings deposit, from a maximum of ∼22,000 mg kg -1 to ∼1000 mg kg -1 at a distance of ∼150 m. In contrast, arsenic was distributed more evenly across the wetland, indicating that it was more mobile under the prevailing hypoxic/anoxic conditions. Less clear trends were observed in the tissues of wetland plants, with the concentrations of antimony in waterlilies (2.5-195 mg kg -1 ) showing no clear trends with distance from the tailings deposit, and no correlation with sediment concentrations. Sedges and Melaleuca sp. trees had lower antimony concentrations (<25 mg kg -1 and 5 mg kg -1 , respectively) compared to waterlilies, but showed a non-significant trend of higher concentrations closer to the tailings. For all vegetation types sampled, antimony concentrations were consistently lower than arsenic concentrations (Sb:As = 0.27-0.31), despite higher concentrations of antimony in the sediment. Overall, the results of this study highlight clear differences in the behaviour of antimony and arsenic in freshwater wetlands, which should be considered during the management and remediation of such sites. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fracture trends identified by ERTS-1 imagery in Utah and Nevada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jensen, M. L. (Principal Investigator); Smith, M. R.; Rogers, R. J.

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Structures clearly traceable through bed rock are considered most reliable. Continuity, however, is frequently traceable through ranges and across adjoining sedimentary basins where changes in drainage, erosion pattern, soil color, or vegetation suggest that the basin sediments are extremely sensitive to underlying structures. Many large and continuous trends, too smeared by erosion to be visible on the ground or from aircraft photos, become quite evident at the scale of the ERTS-1 images. The study was made with little regard for surface geology. The trends have been retraced to separate and unidirectional sets. These are now being related to surface geology, geophysical studies, volcanic and intrusive centers, and areas of mineralization.

Cancer incidence and mortality in France in 1975-95.

PubMed

Ménégoz, F; Black, R J; Arveux, P; Magne, V; Ferlay, J; Buémi, A; Carli, P M; Chapelain, G; Faivre, J; Gignoux, M; Grosclaude, P; Mace-Lesec'h, J; Raverdy, N; Schaffer, P

1997-10-01

The aims of the European Network of Cancer Registries (ENCR) are to improve the quality, comparability and availability of cancer registry data in Europe. This paper on cancer incidence and mortality in France presents the most recent available data, with short-term projections to 1995, and a commentary based, where possible, on epidemiological research carried out in France. Cancer incidence in men in France increased throughout the study period 1975 to 1995, from 92,000 new cases in 1975 to about 135,000 in 1995. This increase was partly due to the ageing of the French population, but incidence rates have also increased, particularly from 1975 to 1985. The trend appears to be levelling off in the 1990s, with an incidence rate in 1995 of about 482 per 100,000 (this and subsequent rates quoted are standardized to the European Standard Population). Among women, the all-cancer incidence rates also increased during the 1970s and 1980s. Although the rate of increase was less pronounced than in men, the trend is continuing in the 1990s. The estimated age standardized rate in 1995 was 309 per 100,000, representing 104,000 new cases. The main components of these changes in the last decade were, for men, increases in large bowel and prostate cancer, which have been partly compensated for by decreases in oral cavity, larynx and stomach cancer. For women the trend was dominated by the continuing increase in breast cancer with increases also in large bowel and lung cancers. Of the numerically important cancers in women, only stomach cancer has shown a clear decline. The situation in 1995 was that breast cancer remained the predominant cancer affecting women in France, accounting for almost one third of all new cases of cancer diagnosed and one fifth of cancer deaths. The next most frequent cancers in women were those of the large bowel. Regrettably, incidence rates of both breast and bowel cancer are increasing in women. For men in France the most frequent cancers in 1995 were those of the prostate, large bowel and lung, all of which increased in incidence since 1975. Although it is estimated that there will be more newly diagnosed cases of prostate cancer than lung cancer in 1995, the latter will cause many more deaths, particularly of young men.

Expansion of oil palm and other cash crops causes an increase of the land surface temperature in the Jambi province in Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabajo, Clifton R.; le Maire, Guerric; June, Tania; Meijide, Ana; Roupsard, Olivier; Knohl, Alexander

2017-10-01

Indonesia is currently one of the regions with the highest transformation rate of land surface worldwide related to the expansion of oil palm plantations and other cash crops replacing forests on large scales. Land cover changes, which modify land surface properties, have a direct effect on the land surface temperature (LST), a key driver for many ecological functions. Despite the large historic land transformation in Indonesia toward oil palm and other cash crops and governmental plans for future expansion, this is the first study so far to quantify the impacts of land transformation on the LST in Indonesia. We analyze LST from the thermal band of a Landsat image and produce a high-resolution surface temperature map (30 m) for the lowlands of the Jambi province in Sumatra (Indonesia), a region which suffered large land transformation towards oil palm and other cash crops over the past decades. The comparison of LST, albedo, normalized differenced vegetation index (NDVI) and evapotranspiration (ET) between seven different land cover types (forest, urban areas, clear-cut land, young and mature oil palm plantations, acacia and rubber plantations) shows that forests have lower surface temperatures than the other land cover types, indicating a local warming effect after forest conversion. LST differences were up to 10.1 ± 2.6 °C (mean ± SD) between forest and clear-cut land. The differences in surface temperatures are explained by an evaporative cooling effect, which offsets the albedo warming effect. Our analysis of the LST trend of the past 16 years based on MODIS data shows that the average daytime surface temperature in the Jambi province increased by 1.05 °C, which followed the trend of observed land cover changes and exceeded the effects of climate warming. This study provides evidence that the expansion of oil palm plantations and other cash crops leads to changes in biophysical variables, warming the land surface and thus enhancing the increase of the air temperature because of climate change.

A Novel Method making direct use of AIRS and IASI Calibrated Radiances for Measuring Trends in Surface Temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aumann, H. H.; Ruzmaikin, A.

2014-12-01

Making unbiased measurements of trends in the surface temperatures, particularly on a gobal scale, is challenging: While the non-frozen oceans temperature measurements are plentiful and accurate, land and polar areas are much less accurately or fairly sampled. Surface temperature deduced from infrared radiometers on polar orbiting satellites (e.g. the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) at 1:30PM, the Interferometer Atmosphere Sounding Interferometer (IASI) at 9:30 AM and the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) at 1:30PM), can produce what appear to be well sampled data, but dealing with clouds either by cloud filtering (MODIS, IASI) or cloud-clearing (AIRS) can create sampling bias. We use a novel method: Random Nadir Sampling (RNS) combined with Probability Density Function (PDF) analysis. We analyze the trend in the PDF of st1231, the water vapor absorption corrected brightness temperatures measured in the 1231 cm-1 atmospheric window channel. The advantage of this method is that trends can be directly traced to the known, less than 3 mK/yr trend for AIRS, in st1231. For this study we created PDFs from 22,000 daily RNS from the AIRS and IASI data. We characterized the PDFs by its daily 90%tile value, st1231p90, and analysed the statistical properties of the this time series between 2002 and 2014. The method was validated using the daily NOAA SST (RTGSST) from the non-frozen oceans: The mean, seasonal variability and anomaly trend of st1231p90 agree with the corrsponding values from the RTGSST and the anomaly correlation is larger than 0.9. Preliminary results (August 2014) confirm the global hiatus in the increase of the globally averaged surface temperatures between 2002 and 2014, with a change of less than 10 mK/yr. This uncertainty is dominated by the large interannual variability related to El Niño events. Further insite is gained by analyzing land/ocean, day/night, artic and antarctic trends. We observe a massive warming trend in the Artic between 2002 and 2007, which has since level off, but no significant trend in the Antarctic. The AIRS results since 2002 are confirmed by IASI data since 2007. This work was supported by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory of the California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration.

Implications of sedimentological studies for environmental pollution assessment and management: Examples from fluvial systems in North Queensland and Western Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eyre, Bradley; McConchie, David

1993-05-01

Sedimentology is of increasing importance in environmental research, particularly environmental pollution studies, where past trends in environmental processes need to be combined with data on present conditions to predict likely future changes—the past and present as a key to the future. Two examples are used to illustrate the role of sedimentology in assessing the influence of major processes on the transport, accumulation, deposition and modification of contaminants in fluvial/estuarine systems and in developing environmental management plans. Example 1 shows that when assessing nutrient behaviour in fluvial/estuarine depositional settings, it is important to examine the partitioning of phosphorus between grain size fractions to evaluate the sedimentological processes which control the dispersion and trapping of these contaminants. Example 2 shows that in studies of anthropogenic metal inputs to modern depositional settings, lateral and stratigraphic trends in sediment texture and mineralogy should be examined, in addition to trends in metal loads and evaluation of the prevailing physical, chemical and biological processes that may influence metal mobility and dispersion. Clearly, basic sedimentological data should form part of any assessment of potentially contaminated sites and part of investigations into the dispersion and trapping of contaminants in fluvial systems. These data are also required for rational environmental management to ensure that planning decisions are compatible with natural environmental constraints.

A Historical Review of Diachrony and Semantic Dimensions of Trace in Neurosciences and Lacanian Psychoanalysis

PubMed Central

Escobar, Carolina; Ansermet, François; Magistretti, Pierre J.

2017-01-01

Experience leaves a trace in the nervous system through plasticity. However, the exact meaning of the mnesic trace is poorly defined in current literature. This article provides a historical review of the term trace in neuroscience and psychoanalysis literature, to highlight two relevant aspects: the diachronic and the semantic dimensions. There has been a general interest in diachrony, or a form of evolution of the trace, but its indissociable semantic dimension remains partially disregarded. Although frequently implied, the diachronic and semantic dimensions of the trace are rarely clearly articulated. We situate this discussion into the classical opposition of syntax, or rules of inscription of the trace in the nervous system, and semantics, or the content of the trace, which takes into consideration the attempt of the human being to build coherence. A general observation is that the study of the term trace follows trends of the thought of the given epoch. This historical analysis also reveals the decay of the idea that the trace is reliable to the experience. From the articulation between neurosciences and psychoanalysis in a historical perspective, this review shows that the trend is to consider trace as a production of the subject, resulting in a permanent rewriting in an attempt to give meaning to the experience. This trend is becoming increasingly evident in light of recent research in neurosciences and psychoanalysis. PMID:28690553

Parental Gender Equality and Use of Oral Contraceptives Among Young Women: A Longitudinal, Population-based Study in Sweden

PubMed Central

Rashid, Mamunur; Kader, Manzur

2014-01-01

Background: Little is known about how parental gender equality early in their children lives can influence daughters’ decision to use contraceptive pills. Aim: The study aimed at exploring whether maternal working time and paternity leave in Sweden during the first two years of their daughters’ lives is associated with the use of oral contraceptives when they are adolescents or young adults. Materials and Methods: The study population was selected from a cohort of all Swedish fathers and mothers who had their first child together between 1988 and 1989 (n = 57,520 family units). Multivariate logistic regression was used to estimate the association. Results: Mothers’ longer working time was mildly associated with daughters’ oral contraceptive pill use, though no clear trend was observed. Longer paternity leave periods (>30 days) were not associated with use of oral contraceptives among their daughters, but 1-30 day periods showed a mild positive association. Conclusion: For maternal working time, there seems to be an association, but trends by working hours are not clear. There is no clear association between paternity leave during the first two years of their daughters’ life and the use of oral contraceptives when they are adolescents and young adults. PMID:25077078

Optical interconnects for satellite payloads: overview of the state-of-the-art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vervaeke, Michael; Debaes, Christof; Van Erps, Jürgen; Karppinen, Mikko; Tanskanen, Antti; Aalto, Timo; Harjanne, Mikko; Thienpont, Hugo

2010-05-01

The increased demand of broadband communication services like High Definition Television, Video On Demand, Triple Play, fuels the technologies to enhance the bandwidth of individual users towards service providers and hence the increase of aggregate bandwidths on terrestial networks. Optical solutions clearly leverage the bandwidth appetite easily whereas electrical interconnection schemes require an ever-increasing effort to counteract signal distortions at higher bitrates. Dense wavelength division multiplexing and all-optical signal regeneration and switching solve the bandwidth demands of network trunks. Fiber-to-the-home, and fiber-to-the-desk are trends towards providing individual users with greatly increased bandwidth. Operators in the satellite telecommunication sector face similar challenges fuelled by the same demands as for their terrestial counterparts. Moreover, the limited number of orbital positions for new satellites set the trend for an increase in payload datacommunication capacity using an ever-increasing number of complex multi-beam active antennas and a larger aggregate bandwidth. Only satellites with very large capacity, high computational density and flexible, transparent fully digital payload solutions achieve affordable communication prices. To keep pace with the bandwidth and flexibility requirements, designers have to come up with systems requiring a total digital througput of a few Tb/s resulting in a high power consuming satellite payload. An estimated 90 % of the total power consumption per chip is used for the off-chip communication lines. We have undertaken a study to assess the viability of optical datacommunication solutions to alleviate the demands regarding power consumption and aggregate bandwidth imposed on future satellite communication payloads. The review on optical interconnects given here is especially focussed on the demands of the satellite communication business and the particular environment in which the optics have to perform their functionality: space.

Update of the mortality study of workers exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls (Pcbs) in two Italian capacitor manufacturing plants.

PubMed

Pesatori, Angela Cecilia; Grillo, P; Consonni, D; Caironi, M; Sampietro, G; Olivari, Leonella; Ghisleni, Silvia; Bertazzi, P A

2013-01-01

PCB carcinogenicity to humans is still controversial. Cohort mortality studies in PCB-exposed workers reported elevated risks for the following causes of death: liver, stomach, digestive, brain, prostate cancers and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The purpose of this study was to update as of December 2006 the mortality experience of two Italian cohorts of workers employed in the manufacture of capacitors impregnated with PCBs. Age-gender-and calendar period adjusted Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) and 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were calculated using regional rates. Analyses by duration of employment and time since first employment were performed Results: Vital status was ascertained for 98.9% of the study subjects. Mortality from biliary tract cancer among males (SMR 3.91; 95%CI 1.47-10.41), digestive cancer "not otherwise specified" in the whole cohort (SMR 2.54; 95%CI 1.21-5.34), and brain cancer in Plant I (SMR 2.13; 95%CI 1.02-4.48), were significantly increased. Increased risks were also observed for Hodgkin's and non-Hodgkin lymphoma. No linear associations between mortality and duration of employment or latency were observed for these cancers. Mortality from stomach cancer did not differ from expectation in the whole cohort, however an increasing risk with increasing duration of employment was detected (p for trend=0.02). The current update suggests possibly increased cancer risks in PCB-exposed workers, affecting in particular the digestive system, brain, and lymphohemopoietic tissue. However the limited sample size, the lack of clear trends with duration of employment or with latency period, preclude to derive definite conclusions about PCB exposure and the increased cancer risks.

TRENDS IN THE BENTHIC COMMUNITIES OF SUB-EMBAYMENTS OF NARRAGANSETT BAY, RI

EPA Science Inventory

Narragansett Bay has been a valued ecological resource from pre-colonial periods, and humans have historically altered the landscape around the Bay. This alteration was accelerated after European colonization. Land was clear-cut. Wetlands and tidal flats dredged and filled. Wi...

Targeting U. S. Technologies: A Trend Analysis of Cleared Industry Reporting

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

conducted a scientic analysis that traced a particular disease outbreak to one specic London well, and demonstrated that cholera befell only those...Islands Chile Colombia Costa Rica Cuba Curacao Dominica Dominican Republic Ecuador El Salvador Grenada Guatemala Guyana Haiti Honduras Jamaica Mexico

Sugar replacers: from technological challenges to consequences on health.

PubMed

Lê, Kim-Anne; Robin, Frédéric; Roger, Olivier

2016-07-01

Dietary sugars play a role in noncommunicable diseases and represent a clear target for reduction. In this context, product reformulation can have a positive impact on health. Several technological solutions are available to replace sugar, all with benefits and limitations. The goal of this review is to describe the main sugar replacement alternatives and discuss their impact on health and product physicochemical properties. Although high intensity sweeteners and polyols have been used for a long time to replace sucrose and despite no clear evidence of harm, the trend is today to look for alternatives such as sweet enhancers or alternative sugars such as allulose or tagatose, which are both low caloric. To replace the physical properties of sugars, new trends are to substitute widely used maltodextrins by dietary fibres to confer added health benefits. A wide range of solutions is currently available to replace dietary sugars and compensate for the impact on bulking properties and sweetness profile of food products.

Fault reactivation: The Picuris-Pecos fault system of north-central New Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, David Wilson

The PPFS is a N-trending fault system extending over 80 km in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains of northern New Mexico. Precambrian basement rocks are offset 37 km in a right-lateral sense; however, this offset includes dextral strike-slip (Precambrian), mostly normal dip-slip (Pennsylvanian), mostly reverse dip-slip (Early Laramide), limited strike-slip (Late Laramide) and mostly normal dip-slip (Cenozoic). The PPFS is broken into at least 3 segments by the NE-trending Embudo fault and by several Laramide age NW-trending tear faults. These segments are (from N to S): the Taos, the Picuris, and the Pecos segments. On the east side of the Picuris segment in the Picuris Mountains, the Oligocene-Miocene age Miranda graben developed and represents a complex extension zone south of the Embudo fault. Regional analysis of remotely sensed data and geologic maps indicate that lineaments subparallel to the trace of the PPFS are longer and less frequent than lineaments that trend orthogonal to the PPFS. Significant cross cutting faults and subtle changes in fault trends in each segment are clear in the lineament data. Detailed mapping in the eastern Picuris Mountains showed that the favorably oriented Picuris segment was not reactivated in the Tertiary development of the Rio Grande rift. Segmentation of the PPFS and post-Laramide annealing of the Picuris segment are interpreted to have resulted in the development of the subparallel La Serna fault. The Picuris segment of the PPFS is offset by several E-ESE trending faults. These faults are Late Cenozoic in age and interpreted to be related to the uplift of the Picuris Mountains and the continuing sinistral motion on the Embudo fault. Differential subsidence within the Miranda graben caused the development of several synthetic and orthogonal faults between the bounding La Serna and Miranda faults. Analysis of over 10,000 outcrop scale brittle structures reveals a strong correlation between faults and fracture systems. The dominant trends are NNE to NNW related to the PPF, NE related to the Embudo fault, and ENE to ESE and NW related to Laramide and younger tectonic events. Recent faults are characterized by a significant increase in fracture density near the fault while ancient faults show a lesser increase. The results from this study suggest that in regions where sigma1 is vertical and sigma2 ≈ sigma 3, fractures orthogonal to the main faults are as likely as fractures parallel to the main faults.

Future probabilities of coastal floods in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellikka, Havu; Leijala, Ulpu; Johansson, Milla M.; Leinonen, Katri; Kahma, Kimmo K.

2018-04-01

Coastal planning requires detailed knowledge of future flooding risks, and effective planning must consider both short-term sea level variations and the long-term trend. We calculate distributions that combine short- and long-term effects to provide estimates of flood probabilities in 2050 and 2100 on the Finnish coast in the Baltic Sea. Our distributions of short-term sea level variations are based on 46 years (1971-2016) of observations from the 13 Finnish tide gauges. The long-term scenarios of mean sea level combine postglacial land uplift, regionally adjusted scenarios of global sea level rise, and the effect of changes in the wind climate. The results predict that flooding risks will clearly increase by 2100 in the Gulf of Finland and the Bothnian Sea, while only a small increase or no change compared to present-day conditions is expected in the Bothnian Bay, where the land uplift is stronger.

[IMSS in numbers. Consumption of alcohol and psyhoactive substances].

PubMed

2005-01-01

One of the main public health problems in the world are alcohol and drug abuse. Health impact of addictions is clearly evidenced by the increasing numbers of suicides, depression, domestic violence, accidents and injuries. The mental and behavioral problems derived by the abuse of alcohol and psychoactive drugs are under reported. From 1991 to 2003 around 13,000 cases for problems due to alcohol abuse were reported annually in Family Medicine services, nearly 4000 cases in specialized services and an average of 20,000 cases were attended in the emergency areas of the social security system in Mexico (IMSS). The data indicates that this health problems are becoming evident in young populations under 25 years old and the trend is increasing. Professional resources that are specialized in the treatment of such behavioral problems are not sufficient and the institution faces an upcoming health threat that demands prevention programs and a more integrated health care programs.

Mapping pneumonia research: A systematic analysis of UK investments and published outputs 1997-2013.

PubMed

Head, Michael G; Fitchett, Joseph R; Newell, Marie-Louise; Scott, J Anthony G; Harris, Jennifer N; Clarke, Stuart C; Atun, Rifat

2015-09-01

The burden of pneumonia continues to be substantial, particularly among the poorest in global society. We describe here the trends for UK pneumonia R&D investment and published outputs, and correlate with 2013 global mortality. Data related to awards to UK institutions for pneumonia research from 1997 to 2013 were systematically sourced and categorised by disease area and type of science. Investment was compared to mortality figures in 2010 and 2013 for pneumonia, tuberculosis and influenza. Investment was also compared to publication data. Of all infectious disease research between 2011 and 2013 (£917.0 million), £28.8 million (3.1%) was for pneumonia. This was an absolute and proportionate increase from previous time periods. Translational pneumonia research (33.3%) received increased funding compared with 1997-2010 where funding was almost entirely preclinical (87.5%, here 30.9%), but high-burden areas such as paediatrics, elderly care and antimicrobial resistance received little investment. Annual investment remains volatile; publication temporal trends show a consistent increase. When comparing investment to global burden with a novel 'investment by mortality observed' metric, tuberculosis (£48.36) and influenza (£484.21) receive relatively more funding than pneumonia (£43.08), despite investment for pneumonia greatly increasing in 2013 compared to 2010 (£7.39). Limitations include a lack of private sector data and the need for careful interpretation of the comparisons with burden, plus categorisation is subjective. There has been a welcome increase for pneumonia funding awarded to UK institutions in 2011-2013 compared with 1997-2010, along with increases for more translational research. Published outputs relating to pneumonia rose steadily from 1997 to 2013. Investment relative to mortality for pneumonia has increased, but it remains low compared to other respiratory infections and clear inequities remain. Analyses that measure investments in pneumonia can provide an insight into funding trends and research gaps. Pneumonia continues to be a high-burden illness around the globe. This paper shows that although research funding is increasing in the UK (between 1997 and 2013), it remains poorly funded compared to other important respiratory infectious diseases such as tuberculosis and influenza. Publications about pneumonia have been steadily increasing over time, indicating continuing academic and clinical interest in the topic. Though global mortality of pneumonia is declining, it should still be an area of high priority for funders, policymakers and researchers.

Evolving practice patterns for the management of small renal masses in the USA.

PubMed

Yang, Glen; Villalta, Jacqueline D; Meng, Maxwell V; Whitson, Jared M

2012-10-01

What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Treatment options for small renal masses include radical nephrectomy (RN), partial nephrectomy (PN), ablation, and surveillance. PN provides equivalent oncological as RN for small tumours, but long-term outcomes for ablation and surveillance are poorly defined. Due to changing techniques and technology, treatment patterns for small renal masses are rapidly developing. Prior studies had analysed utilisation trends for PN and RN to 2006, revealing a relative rise in the rate of PN. However, overall treatment trends including surveillance and ablation had not been studied using a population-based cohort. It has become increasingly clear that RN is associated with greater renal and cardiovascular deterioration than nephron-sparing treatments. Thus, it is important to understand current population-based practice patterns for the treatment of small renal masses to assess whether practitioners are adhering to ever-changing principles in this field. The present study provides up-to-date treatment trends in the USA using a large population-based cohort. To describe the changing practice patterns in the management of small renal masses, including the use of surveillance and ablative techniques. All patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry treated for renal masses of ≤7 cm in diameter, from 1998 to 2008, were included for analysis. Annual trends in the use of surveillance, ablation, partial nephrectomy (PN), and radical nephrectomy (RN) were calculated. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine the association of demographic and clinical characteristics with treatment method. In all, 48 148 patients from 17 registry sites with a mean age of 63.4 years were included for analysis. Between 1998 and 2008, for masses of <2 cm and 2.1-4 cm, there was a dramatic increase in the proportion of patients undergoing PN (31% vs 50%, 16% vs 33%, respectively) and ablation (1% vs 11%, 2% vs 9%, respectively). In multivariable analysis, later year of diagnosis, male gender, being married, clinically localised disease, and smaller tumours were associated with increased use of PN vs RN. Later year of diagnosis, male gender, being unmarried, smaller tumour, and the presence of bilateral masses were associated with increased use of ablation and surveillance vs RN. PN is now used in half of all patients with the smallest renal masses, and its use continues to increase over time. Ablation and surveillance are less common overall, but there is increased usage over time in select populations. © 2012 THE AUTHORS. BJU INTERNATIONAL © 2012 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

Drought evolution characteristics and precipitation intensity changes during alternating dry-wet changes in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, D. H.; Wu, D.; Huang, R.; Wang, L. N.; Yang, G. Y.

2013-07-01

Abrupt drought-flood change events caused by atmospheric circulation anomalies have occurred frequently and widely in recent years, which has caused great losses and casualties in China. In this paper, we focus on investigating whether there will be a rainfall occurrence with higher intensity after a drought period in the Huang-Huai-Hai River basin. Combined with the Chinese climate divisions and the basin's DEM (digital elevation model), the basin is divided into seven sub-regions by means of cluster analysis of the basin meteorological stations using the self-organizing map (SOM) neural network method. Based on the daily precipitation data of 171 stations for the years 1961-2011, the changes of drought times with different magnitudes are analyzed, and the number of consecutive days without precipitation is used to identify the drought magnitudes. The first precipitation intensity after a drought period is analyzed with the Pearson-III frequency curve, then the relationship between rainfall intensity and different drought magnitudes is observed, as are the changes of drought times for different years. The results of the study indicated that the occurrence times of different drought levels show an overall increasing trend; there is no clear interdecadal change shown, but the spatial difference is significant. (2) As the drought level increases, the probability of extraordinary rainstorm becomes lower, and the frequency of occurrence of spatial changes in different precipitation intensities vary. In the areas I and II, as the drought level increases, the occurrence frequency of different precipitation intensities first shows a decreasing trend, which becomes an increasing trend when extraordinary drought occurs. In the area III, IV and V, the probability of the different precipitation intensities shows an overall decreasing trend. The areas VI and VII are located at the mountains with high altitudes where the variation of different precipitation intensities with the increase in drought level is relatively complex. (3) As the drought times increase, areas I, II and V, which are located on the coastal and in the valley or basin, are vulnerable to extreme precipitation processes; areas III, IV, VI and VII are located in the inland area, where heavier precipitation is not likely to occur. (4) The local rainfall affected by multiple factors is closely related with drought occurrence. The characteristics between the first rainfall intensity after a drought period and different drought magnitudes (or drought occurrence times) are preliminarily examined in this paper, but its formation mechanism still requires further research.

Effects of Nanoparticle Size on Multilayer Formation and Kinetics of Tethered Enzymes.

PubMed

Lata, James P; Gao, Lizeng; Mukai, Chinatsu; Cohen, Roy; Nelson, Jacquelyn L; Anguish, Lynne; Coonrod, Scott; Travis, Alexander J

2015-09-16

Despite numerous applications, we lack fundamental understanding of how variables such as nanoparticle (NP) size influence the activity of tethered enzymes. Previously, we showed that biomimetic oriented immobilization yielded higher specific activities versus nonoriented adsorption or carboxyl-amine binding. Here, we standardize NP attachment strategy (oriented immobilization via hexahistidine tags) and composition (Ni-NTA coated gold NPs), to test the impact of NP size (⌀5, 10, 20, and 50 nm) on multilayer formation, activity, and kinetic parameters (kcat, KM, kcat/KM) of enzymes representing three different classes: glucose-6-phosphate isomerase (GPI), an isomerase; Glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate dehydrogenase S (GAPDHS), an oxidoreductase; and pyruvate kinase (PK), a transferase. Contrary to other reports, we observed no trend in kinetic parameters for individual enzymes when found in monolayers (<100% enzyme coverage), suggesting an advantage for oriented immobilization versus other attachment strategies. Saturating the NPs to maximize activity per NP resulted in enzyme multilayer formation. Under these conditions, total activity per NP increased with increasing NP size. Conversely, specific activity for all three enzymes was highest when tethered to the smallest NPs, retaining a remarkable 73-94% of the activity of free/untethered enzymes. Multilayer formations caused a clear trend of kcat decreasing with increasing NP size, yet negligible change in KM. Understanding the fundamental relationships between NP size and tethered enzyme activity enables optimized design of various applications, maximizing activity per NP or activity per enzyme molecule.

The changing nature of admissions to a spinal cord injury center: violence on the rise.

PubMed

Farmer, J C; Vaccaro, A R; Balderston, R A; Albert, T J; Cotler, J

1998-10-01

The purpose of this study was to analyze changing etiologies for admission to a spinal cord injury center. This study was designed to retrospectively analyze the etiology of admissions to a spinal cord injury center during a 15-year period, specifically gunshot versus nongunshot wound injuries. Gunshot wounds are a well-recognized cause of spinal cord injury. In some centers, up to 52% of admissions are due to this, and these trends are believed to be increasing. All patients with spinal cord injury admitted to our center between 1979 and 1993 were analyzed. Frequencies of specific etiologies were determined and then comparisons were made between gunshot wound and nongunshot wound groups. Factors analyzed included age, male/female ratio, ethnic make-up, marital status, employment status, level of injury, and neurologic status. One thousand eight hundred seventeen patients were included. Overall, gunshot wound spinal cord injuries compromised 16.9% of injuries. A clear trend of increasing numbers of admissions was seen between 1984 and 1993 because of this. Gunshot wounds and nongunshot wounds differed dramatically in terms of age, ethnic make-up, marital status, employment status, and neurologic status. Cost attributed to treating gunshot wound injuries at our center for 1993 was 5.4 million dollars. Gunshot wounds as a cause of spinal cord injury are increasing at an alarming rate. The demographics of the gunshot wounds and nongunshot wound spine cord injuries differ significantly.

Contrasting effects of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance and performance.

PubMed

Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Maiorano, Luigi

2016-07-01

Climate change is determining a generalized phenological advancement, and amphibians are among the taxa showing the strongest phenological responsiveness to warming temperatures. Amphibians are strongly influenced by climate change, but we do not have a clear picture of how climate influences important parameters of amphibian populations, such as abundance, survival, breeding success and morphology. Furthermore, the relative impact of temperature and precipitation change remains underappreciated. We used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to quantify the impact of temperature and precipitation change on amphibian phenology, abundance, individual features and performance. We obtained effect sizes from studies performed in five continents. Temperature increase was the major driver of phenological advancement, while the impact of precipitation on phenology was weak. Conversely, population dynamics was mostly determined by precipitation: negative trends were associated with drying regimes. The impact of precipitation on abundance was particularly strong in tropical areas, while the importance of temperature was feeble. Both temperature and precipitation influenced parameters representing breeding performance, morphology, developmental rate and survival, but the response was highly heterogeneous among species. For instance, warming temperature increased body size in some species, and decreased size in others. Similarly, rainy periods increased survival of some species and reduced the survival of others. Our study showed contrasting impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on amphibian populations. Both climatic parameters strongly influenced amphibian performance, but temperature was the major determinant of the phenological changes, while precipitation had the major role on population dynamics, with alarming declines associated with drying trends.

Mind-Wandering as a Natural Kind: A Family-Resemblances View.

PubMed

Seli, Paul; Kane, Michael J; Smallwood, Jonathan; Schacter, Daniel L; Maillet, David; Schooler, Jonathan W; Smilek, Daniel

2018-06-01

As empirical research on mind-wandering accelerates, we draw attention to an emerging trend in how mind-wandering is conceptualized. Previously articulated definitions of mind-wandering differ from each other in important ways, yet they also maintain overlapping characteristics. This conceptual structure suggests that mind-wandering is best considered from a family-resemblances perspective, which entails treating it as a graded, heterogeneous construct and clearly measuring and describing the specific aspect(s) of mind-wandering that researchers are investigating. We believe that adopting this family-resemblances approach will increase conceptual and methodological connections among related phenomena in the mind-wandering family and encourage a more nuanced and precise understanding of the many varieties of mind-wandering. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Secular trends of chickenpox among military population in Israel in relation to introduction of varicella zoster vaccine 1979-2010.

PubMed

Mimouni, Daniel; Levine, Hagai; Tzurel Ferber, Anat; Rajuan-Galor, Inbal; Huerta-Hartal, Michael

2013-06-01

Chickenpox is a contagious disease caused by the varicella zoster virus. There is scarce data on long-term trends of chickenpox and its relation to vaccinations practices. We aimed to evaluate trends of chickenpox in a military population during the period 1979-2010 and to assess temporal associations in relation with the introduction of varicella zoster vaccine to the civilian population in Israel in 2000. The archives of the Epidemiology Section of the Israel Defense Forces, where chickenpox is a notifiable disease, were reviewed for all cases of chickenpox from January 1, 1979-December 31, 2010. Annual and monthly incidence rates were calculated and analyzed in relation to vaccine introduction. Between 1979-2000, incidence rates fluctuated around 10 cases per 10,000 soldiers without a clear trend. Since 2000 there has been a dramatic 10-fold decline in incidence, especially notable since 2008, from eight per 10,000 soldiers in 2000 to the lowest rate ever recorded, in 2009, of 0.57 cases per 10,000 soldiers. A seasonal sinusoidal pattern was clearly demonstrated, with rising incidence from November to May followed by a gradual decline to October. The results of this long-term study suggest that the rates of chickenpox in the military population have significantly declined since the introduction of the vaccine to the civilian population in Israel and almost disappeared completely since 2008 as the vaccine was included in the state-funded routine childhood immunization schedule. These findings underscore the need for a strong surveillance system and will aid in determing vaccination policies.

Working conditions and workplace health and safety promotion in home care: A mixed-method study from Swedish managers' perspectives.

PubMed

Gard, Gunvor; Larsson, Agneta

2017-11-02

Today, we can see a trend toward increased psychosocial strain at work among home-care managers and staff. The aim of this study is to describe home care managers' views on their own psychosocial working conditions and on how to promote workplace health and safety in a municipality in northern Sweden. A mixed-methods design was used, including questionnaire and qualitative focus group data. The qualitative data were analyzed by manifest content analysis. The results indicate that most managers perceived increased variety in work and opportunities for development at work, but at the same time increased demands. The managers suggested that workplace health and safety could be improved by risk assessment and improved communication, a clear communication chain by a real as well as a virtual platform for communication. In summary, workplace health and safety could be improved by risk assessments and by a physical as well as a virtual platform for communication.

Reproductive factors and gallbladder/bile duct cancer: a population-based cohort study in Japan.

PubMed

Makiuchi, Takeshi; Sobue, Tomotaka; Kitamura, Tetsuhisa; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Yamaji, Taiki; Shimazu, Taichi; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2017-07-01

Reproductive/menstrual factors may be involved in the etiology of gallbladder cancer (GBC) and bile duct cancer (BDC). However, the results from previous epidemiological studies have been inconsistent. We investigated the association of reproductive/menstrual factors with the risk for GBC and BDC in a population-based prospective cohort study in Japan. Data on reproductive/menstrual factors were collected through a self-administered questionnaire at baseline. The hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using the Cox proportional hazard model. A total of 55 786 women enrolled between 1990 and 1994 were included in the analysis, and 115 GBC and 113 BDC cases were identified, with 944 861 person-years follow-up until 2010. For GBC, irregular and longer cycles were moderately associated with an increased risk [HR=2.12 (95% CI: 1.30-3.47) and HR=1.76 (95% CI: 1.08-2.89), respectively]. This effect tended to be greater in premenopausal than in postmenopausal women. Furthermore, older age at first pregnancy tended to be associated with an increased risk [HR=1.84 (95% CI: 1.03-3.29), P-trend=0.036], whereas increased duration of fertility tended to be associated with a decreased risk [HR=0.59 (95% CI: 0.35-1.01), P-trend=0.055] of GBC. No clear association with BDC was observed. This finding suggests that women with irregular or longer cycles may have an increased risk for GBC and female hormones may play an important role in the etiology of GBC.

Wetland habitats for wildlife of the Chesapeake Bay

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, M.C.; Majumdar, S.K.; Miller, E.W.; Brenner, Fred J.

1998-01-01

The wetlands of Chesapeake Bay have provided the vital habitats that have sustained the impressive wildlife populations that have brought international fame to the Bay. As these wetland habitats decrease in quantity and quality we will continue to see the decline in the wildlife populations that started when European settlers first came to this continent. These declines have accelerated significantly in this century. As the human population continues to increase in the Bay watershed, one can expect that wetland habitats will continue to decline, resulting in declines in species diversity and population numbers. Although federal, state, and local governments are striving for 'no net loss' of wetlands, the results to date are not encouraging. It is unrealistic to believe that human populations and associated development can continue to increase and not adversely affect the wetland resources of the Bay. Restrictions on human population growth in the Chesapeake area is clearly the best way to protect wetland habitats and the wildlife that are dependent on these habitats. In addition, there should be more aggressive approaches to protect wetland habitats from continued perturbations from humans. More sanctuary areas should be created and there should be greater use of enhancement and management techniques that will benefit the full complement of species that potentially exist in these wetlands. The present trend in wetland loss can be expected to continue as human populations increase with resultant increases in roads, shopping malls, and housing developments. Creation of habitat for mitigation of these losses will not result in 'no net loss'. More innovative approaches should be employed to reverse the long-term trend in wetland loss by humans.

Tree-Ring Stable Isotopes Reveal Twentieth-Century Increases in Water-Use Efficiency of Fagus sylvatica and Nothofagus spp. in Italian and Chilean Mountains

PubMed Central

Tognetti, Roberto; Lombardi, Fabio; Lasserre, Bruno; Cherubini, Paolo; Marchetti, Marco

2014-01-01

Changes in intrinsic water use efficiency (iWUE) were investigated in Fagus sylvatica and Nothofagus spp. over the last century. We combined dendrochronological methods with dual-isotope analysis to investigate whether atmospheric changes enhanced iWUE of Fagus and Nothofagus and tree growth (basal area increment, BAI) along latitudinal gradients in Italy and Chile. Post-maturation phases of the trees presented different patterns in δ13C, Δ13C, δ18O, Ci (internal CO2 concentration), iWUE, and BAI. A continuous enhancement in isotope-derived iWUE was observed throughout the twentieth century, which was common to all sites and related to changes in Ca (ambient CO2 concentration) and secondarily to increases in temperature. In contrast to other studies, we observed a general increasing trend of BAI, with the exception of F. sylvatica in Aspromonte. Both iWUE and BAI were uncoupled with the estimated drought index, which is in agreement with the absence of enduring decline in tree growth. In general, δ13C and δ18O showed a weak relationship, suggesting the major influence of photosynthetic rate on Ci and δ13C, and the minor contribution of the regulation of stomatal conductance to iWUE. The substantial warming observed during the twentieth century did not result in a clear pattern of increased drought stress along these latitudinal transects, because of the variability in temporal trends of precipitation and in specific responses of populations. PMID:25398040

Effect of sport-tinted contact lenses for contrast enhancement on retinal straylight measurements.

PubMed

Cerviño, Alejandro; Gonzalez-Meijome, Jose M; Linhares, João M M; Hosking, Sarah L; Montes-Mico, Robert

2008-03-01

To investigate the effect of two tinted contact lenses (CL) designed for outdoor sports activity on the psychometric determination of retinal straylight using the compensation comparison method. Thirteen emmetropic subjects were randomly fitted with two different tinted Nike Maxsight (Bausch & Lomb, Rochester, NY, USA) CL in one eye, while the contralateral eye was fitted with a clear lens made of the same material (Optima 38, Bausch & Lomb). Three valid straylight measurements were taken on each eye before and a few minutes after lens insertion, when lens stabilization had occurred. The subjects' mean straylight values were 0.90 +/- 0.09 at baseline and 0.95 +/- 0.10 with the clear Optima 38 CL. Straylight values were 0.97 +/- 0.10 and 1.0 +/- 0.10 log units with the amber and grey-green tinted CL, respectively. Differences in straylight between baseline (without CL) and with the clear CL in place were neither statistically significant (p = 0.066) nor was there a significant difference between baseline and the amber CL (p = 0.052). However, the grey-green CL showed a statistically significant difference from baseline (p = 0.006). Differences in straylight with the clear CL compared with the grey-green CL were also statistically different from zero (p = 0.002) showing an increased straylight value for the tinted CL. These differences were variable, but consistent for each subject, thus those showing higher or lower changes with one tinted lens tended to show the same trend with the second lens (r(2) = 0.736). Despite increases having been found in straylight values with tinted contact lenses, those changes are not likely to induce clinically significant changes in visual function under photopic conditions, even for the grey-green CL, which seems to increase straylight values more significantly than the amber CL. This difference between the tinted CL could suggest a wavelength dependence of straylight values, although this should be investigated further by controlling for pupil size and subjects' pigmentation, as well as by using neutral density filters.

Seasonal evolution of suspended particles around a large coal-fired power station: Chemical characterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Querol, Xavier; Alastuey, A´s.; Puicercus, J´A.; Mantilla, Enrique; Ruiz, Carmen R.; Lopez-Soler, Angel; Plana, Felicia`; Juan, Roberto

The present work focuses on the seasonal evolution of total suspended particles (TSP) around the Teruel power station in Northeastern Spain. The results show a marked seasonal trend, along the sampling period (July 1995-July 1996), which is characterized by levels of the elements studied in TSP that were higher (up to one order of magnitude) in spring-summer and decreased progressively towards winter. This trend contrasts with the seasonal evolution reported by most of the studies carried out in industrial and urban areas in Central and Northern Europe. The origin of this seasonal TSP trend may be related to: (a) higher summer oxidation which increased levels of secondary TSP; (b) higher convective circulation in summer which raised levels of soil-related particles and primary anthropogenic particles; (c) higher frequency of intrusion episodes of Sahara air masses in summer and spring; and (d) lower aerosol scavenging potential in summer. A clear grain-size fractionation was observed for the different ions determined. SO 42- and NH 4+ were concentrated in the finest grain-size fraction (0.3-0.6 μm); NO 3-, Cl -, K +, Mg 2+, Na + and minor amounts of NH 4+ were concentrated in the 1.2-5.0 μm fractions; and Ca 2+ increased with the particle diameter. S-bearing species were (NH 4) 2SO 4 (mascagnite), (NH 4) 2Ca(SO 4) 2 · H 2O (koktaite) and CaSO 4 · 2H 2O (gypsum). Mascagnite was the dominant species in the finest grain size fraction (0.3-0.6 μm), whereas koktaite was also present in the 0.6-1.2 μm fraction, and gypsum predominated in the other fractions.

Eutrophication and carbon sources in Chesapeake Bay over the last 2700 yr: Human impacts in context

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bratton, J.F.; Colman, Steven M.; Seal, R.R.

2003-01-01

To compare natural variability and trends in a developed estuary with human-influenced patterns, stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) were measured in sediments from five piston cores collected in Chesapeake Bay. Mixing of terrestrial and algal carbon sources primarily controls patterns of δ13Corg profiles, so this proxy shows changes in estuary productivity and in delivery of terrestrial carbon to the bay. Analyses of δ15N show periods when oxygen depletion allowed intense denitrification and nutrient recycling to develop in the seasonally stratified water column, in addition to recycling taking place in surficial sediments. These conditions produced 15N-enriched (heavy) nitrogen in algal biomass, and ultimately in sediment. A pronounced increasing trend in δ15N of +4‰ started in about A.D. 1750 to 1800 at all core sites, indicating greater eutrophication in the bay and summer oxygen depletion since that time. The timing of the change correlates with the advent of widespread land clearing and tillage in the watershed, and associated increases in erosion and sedimentation. Isotope data show that the region has experienced up to 13 wet-dry cycles in the last 2700 yr. Relative sea-level rise and basin infilling have produced a net freshening trend overprinted with cyclic climatic variability. Isotope data also constrain the relative position of the spring productivity maximum in Chesapeake Bay and distinguish local anomalies from sustained changes impacting large regions of the bay. This approach to reconstructing environmental history should be generally applicable to studies of other estuaries and coastal embayments impacted by watershed development.

Satellite-Based Tropospheric NO2 Column Trends in the Last 10 Years Over Mexican Urban Areas Measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, C. I.; Stremme, W.; Grutter, M.

2015-12-01

Population density and economic activities in urban agglomerations have drastically increased in many cities in Mexico during the last decade. Several factors are responsible for increased urbanization such as a shift of people from rural to urban areas while looking for better education, services and job opportunities as well as the natural growth of the urban areas themselves. Urbanization can create great social, economic and environmental pressures and changes which can easily be observed in most urban agglomerations in the world. In this study, we have focused on analyzing tropospheric NO2 (nitrogen dioxide) column trends over Mexican urban areas that have a population of at least one million inhabitants according to the latest 2010 population census. Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements of NO2 conducted by the space-borne Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite between 2005 and 2014 have been used for this analysis. This dataset has allowed us to obtain a satellite-based 10-year tropospheric NO2 column trend over the most populated Mexican cities which include the dominating metropolitan area of Mexico City with more than twenty million inhabitants as well as ten other Mexican cities with a population ranging between one to five million inhabitants with a wide range of activities (commercial, agricultural or heavily industrialized) as well as two important border crossings. Distribution maps of tropospheric NO2 columns above the studied urban agglomerations were reconstructed from the analyzed OMI dataset, allowing to identify areas of interest due to clear NO2 enhancements inside these urban regions.

Seasonality of North Atlantic phytoplankton from space: impact of environmental forcing on a changing phenology (1998-2012).

PubMed

González Taboada, Fernando; Anadón, Ricardo

2014-03-01

Seasonal pulses of phytoplankton drive seasonal cycles of carbon fixation and particle sedimentation, and might condition recruitment success in many exploited species. Taking advantage of long-term series of remotely sensed chlorophyll a (1998-2012), we analyzed changes in phytoplankton seasonality in the North Atlantic Ocean. Phytoplankton phenology was analyzed based on a probabilistic characterization of bloom incidence. This approach allowed us to detect changes in the prevalence of different seasonal cycles and, at the same time, to estimate bloom timing and magnitude taking into account uncertainty in bloom detection. Deviations between different sensors stressed the importance of a prolonged overlap between successive missions to ensure a correct assessment of phenological changes, as well as the advantage of semi-analytical chlorophyll algorithms over empirical ones to reduce biases. Earlier and more intense blooms were detected in the subpolar Atlantic, while advanced blooms of less magnitude were common in the Subtropical gyre. In the temperate North Atlantic, spring blooms advanced their timing and decreased in magnitude, whereas fall blooms delayed and increased their intensity. At the same time, the prevalence of locations with a single autumn/winter bloom or with a bimodal seasonal cycle increased, in consonance with a poleward expansion of subtropical conditions. Changes in bloom timing and magnitude presented a clear signature of environmental factors, especially wind forcing, although changes on incident photosynthetically active radiation and sea surface temperature were also important depending on latitude. Trends in bloom magnitude matched changes in mean chlorophyll a during the study period, suggesting that seasonal peaks drive long-term trends in chlorophyll a concentration. Our results link changes in North Atlantic climate with recent trends in the phenology of phytoplankton, suggesting an intensification of these impacts in the near future. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K; Smit, Ben

2015-01-01

We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning.

Getting on with persistent pollutants: Decreasing trends of perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) in sewage sludge.

PubMed

Ulrich, Hanna; Freier, Korbinian P; Gierig, Michael

2016-10-01

Sewage sludge can be a relevant source of perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs) for the environment. In order to reduce emissions from this source, Bavarian authorities enforced in 2008 an analysis of PFAAs from sewage sludge derived from municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). 4981 sludge samples from 1165 different WWTPs were analyzed between 2008 and 2013 for 11 PFAAs compounds. During this period, 71 WWTPs exceeded the precautionary limit of 125 μg kg(-1) dm of total PFAAs in sludge samples at least once with a decreasing tendency. The yearly exceedances of the investigated WWTPs decreased from 6% in 2008 to 0.8% in 2013. At the same time, the percentage of uncontaminated WWTPs increased from 33% to 65%. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) was the predominant compound found in 41% of all sludge samples. Perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA) was detected in 19% and Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) in 7%. Very high PFAAs concentrations (>500 μg kg(-1) dm) in sewage sludge were generally caused by firefighting foams containing PFAAs or emissions from PFAAs-using industries including metal plating, textile, leather or paper industries. Trend analyses of the six year period show that PFAAs contamination in sewage sludge clearly decreased for 47% of the WWTPs. However, for 16% of the WWTPs an increasing trend was detected, even though the concentration levels were below the precautionary limit. During the six years of investigation the load of total PFAAs in sewage sludge was reduced by more than 90%, from 17 t a(-1) in 2008 to 1.5 t a(-1) in 2013. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Response of Antarctic sea surface temperature and sea ice to ozone depletion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, D.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Kostov, Y.; Marshall, J.; Seviour, W.; Waugh, D.

2017-12-01

The influence of the Antarctic ozone hole extends all the way from the stratosphere through the troposphere down to the surface, with clear signatures on surface winds, and SST during summer. In this talk we discuss the impact of these changes on the ocean circulation and sea ice state. We are notably motivated by the observed cooling of the surface Southern Ocean and associated increase in Antarctic sea ice extent since the 1970s. These trends are not reproduced by CMIP5 climate models, and the underlying mechanism at work in nature and the models remain unexplained. Did the ozone hole contribute to the observed trends?Here, we review recent advances toward answering these issues using "abrupt ozone depletion" experiments. The ocean and sea ice response is rather complex, comprising two timescales: a fast ( 1-2y) cooling of the surface ocean and sea ice cover increase, followed by a slower warming trend, which, depending on models, flip the sign of the SST and sea ice responses on decadal timescale. Although the basic mechanism seems robust, comparison across climate models reveal large uncertainties in the timescales and amplitude of the response to the extent that even the sign of the ocean and sea ice response to ozone hole and recovery remains unconstrained. After briefly describing the dynamics and thermodynamics behind the two-timescale response, we will discuss the main sources of uncertainties in the modeled response, namely cloud effects and air-sea heat exchanges, surface wind stress response and ocean eddy transports. Finally, we will consider the implications of our results on the ability of coupled climate models to reproduce observed Southern Ocean changes.

Impact of tobacco prices and smoke-free policy on smoking cessation, by gender and educational group: Spain, 1993-2012.

PubMed

Regidor, Enrique; Pascual, Cruz; Giráldez-García, Carolina; Galindo, Silvia; Martínez, David; Kunst, Anton E

2015-12-01

To evaluate the effect of tobacco prices and the implementation of smoke-free legislation on smoking cessation in Spain, by educational level, across the period 1993-2012. National Health Surveys data for the above two decades were used to calculate smoking cessation in people aged 25-64 years. The relationship between tobacco prices and smoking quit-ratio was estimated using multiple linear regression adjusted for time and the presence of smoke-free legislation. The immediate as well as the longer-term impact of the 2006 smoke-free law on quit-ratio was estimated using segmented linear regression analysis. The analyses were performed separately in men and women with high and low education, respectively. No relationship was observed between tobacco prices and smoking quit-ratio, except in women having a low educational level, among whom a rise in price was associated with a decrease in quit-ratio. The smoke-free law altered the smoking quit-ratio in the short term and altered also pre-existing trends. Smoking quit-ratio increased immediately after the ban - though this increase was significant only among women with a low educational level - and then decreased in subsequent years except among men with a high educational level. A clear relationship between tobacco prices and smoking quit-ratio was not observed in a recent period. After the implementation of smoke-free legislation the trend in the quit ratio in most of the socio-economic groups was different from the trend observed before implementation, so existing inequalities in smoking quit-ratio were not widened or narrowed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Global Perspective on Trends in Nature-Based Tourism

PubMed Central

Balmford, Andrew; Beresford, James; Green, Jonathan; Naidoo, Robin; Walpole, Matt; Manica, Andrea

2009-01-01

Reports of rapid growth in nature-based tourism and recreation add significant weight to the economic case for biodiversity conservation but seem to contradict widely voiced concerns that people are becoming increasingly isolated from nature. This apparent paradox has been highlighted by a recent study showing that on a per capita basis, visits to natural areas in the United States and Japan have declined over the last two decades. These results have been cited as evidence of “a fundamental and pervasive shift away from nature-based recreation”—but how widespread is this phenomenon? We address this question by looking at temporal trends in visitor numbers at 280 protected areas (PAs) from 20 countries. This more geographically representative dataset shows that while PA visitation (whether measured as total or per capita visit numbers) is indeed declining in the United States and Japan, it is generally increasing elsewhere. Total visit numbers are growing in 15 of the 20 countries for which we could get data, with the median national rate of change unrelated to the national rate of population growth but negatively associated with wealth. Reasons for this reversal of growth in the richest countries are difficult to pin down with existing data, but the pattern is mirrored by trends in international tourist arrivals as a whole and so may not necessarily be caused by disaffection with nature. Irrespective of the explanation, it is clear that despite important downturns in some countries, nature-related tourism is far from declining everywhere, and may still have considerable potential both to generate funds for conservation and to shape people's attitudes to the environment. PMID:19564896

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K

2015-01-01

Abstract We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning. PMID:27293732

AN EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF MICROPRINGING BY THE OFFSET METHOD, SUPPLEMENT.

DTIC Science & Technology

samples produced clearly indicated that the limitation of the offset method had not been reached for lexical material. However, the halftones printed at...more line art and fewer halftones . This preference and trend will favor microprinting by making greater reduction practical, and is another reason

Are Global Economic Losses from Natural Hazards Increasing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMullan, Caroline; Simic, Milan; Tosco, Antonello; Latchman, Shane

2016-04-01

Global society has long been influenced by natural hazards, but it has been widely noted that the economic cost of natural hazards has been rising rapidly over recent decades. This upward trend highlights the increasing exposure of the global economy to natural hazards and the need for society to understand the driving factors to help improve the resilience of communities. However disaster risk is driven by a plethora of factors, including population, wealth, land-use, and demographics. Consider also the natural variability in the frequency and severity of events, climate change, and implementation of resilience policies, and it becomes clear that disaster-risk management is a challenging field. To investigate the apparent upward trend in reported annual economic losses from natural disasters, socioeconomic factors known to influence the magnitude of losses must first be accounted for. Adjustment for these factors, known as loss normalisation, aims to estimate the losses sustained if historical events were to impact present day society. We have undertaken a detailed assessment of global economic losses from natural disasters for the period 1995 through 2013. Although the studied time-period is relatively short, expanding the investigated period would not necessarily produce more reliable insights owing to the inherent difficulty in obtaining accurate economic loss estimates for earlier periods and the challenge of finding consistent and reliable sources of socioeconomic data for the normalisation process. The results of the study, presented at a global and regional level, appear to suggest that the main driver of perceived increase in economic losses over the last ~20 years was the development of nations' economies (i.e. increase in population and wealth/GDP) and not in the natural hazards themselves. As populations all over the world migrate into areas of higher natural hazards regions (e.g. coastal areas or floodplain zones) and global wealth continues to increase, it will be important to continue to monitor this trend. The average annual economic losses presented herein could be used as a benchmark for the Sendai Framework which aims to "Reduce direct disaster economic loss in relation to global gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030".

Temporal trends in 137Cs concentrations in the bark, sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood of four tree species in Japanese forests from 2011 to 2016.

PubMed

Ohashi, Shinta; Kuroda, Katsushi; Takano, Tsutomu; Suzuki, Youki; Fujiwara, Takeshi; Abe, Hisashi; Kagawa, Akira; Sugiyama, Masaki; Kubojima, Yoshitaka; Zhang, Chunhua; Yamamoto, Koichi

2017-11-01

To understand the changes in radiocesium ( 137 Cs) concentrations in stem woods after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident, we investigated 137 Cs concentrations in the bark, sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood of four major tree species at multiple sites with different levels of radiocesium deposition from the FDNPP accident since 2011 (since 2012 at some sites): Japanese cedar at four sites, hinoki cypress and Japanese konara oak at two sites, and Japanese red pine at one site. Our previous report on 137 Cs concentrations in bark and whole wood samples collected from 2011 to 2015 suggested that temporal variations were different among sites even within the same species. In the present study, we provided data on bark and whole wood samples in 2016 and separately measured 137 Cs concentrations in sapwood and heartwood samples from 2011 to 2016; we further discussed temporal trends in 137 Cs concentrations in each part of tree stems, particularly those in 137 Cs distributions between sapwood and heartwood, in relation to their species and site dependencies. Temporal trends in bark and whole wood samples collected from 2011 to 2016 were consistent with those reported in samples collected from 2011 to 2015. Temporal variations in 137 Cs concentrations in barks showed either a decreasing trend or no clear trend, implying that 137 Cs deposition in barks is inhomogeneous and that decontamination is relatively slow in some cases. Temporal trends in 137 Cs concentrations in sapwood, heartwood, and whole wood were different among species and also among sites within the same species. Relatively common trends within the same species, which were increasing, were observed in cedar heartwood, and in oak sapwood and whole wood. On the other hand, the ratio of 137 Cs concentration in heartwood to that in sapwood (fresh weight basis) was commonly increased to more than 2 in cedar, although distinct temporal trends were not found in the other species, for which the ratio was around 1 in cypress and pine and below 0.5 in oak, suggesting that 137 Cs transfer from sapwood to heartwood shows species dependency. Consequently, the species dependency of 137 Cs transfer within the tree appears easily, while that from the environment to the trees can be masked by various factors. Thus, prediction of 137 Cs concentrations in stem wood should be carried out carefully as it still requires investigations at multiple sites with a larger sample size and an understanding of the species-specific 137 Cs transfer mechanism. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Dissolved-solids sources, loads, yields, and concentrations in streams of the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anning, David W.; Flynn, Marilyn E.

2014-01-01

Results from the trend analysis and from the SPARROW model indicate that, compared to monitoring stations with no trends or decreasing trends, stations with increasing trends are associated with a smaller percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources, and a larger percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Conversely, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends, stations with decreasing trends have a larger percentage of the predicted dissolved-solids load originating from geologic sources and a smaller percentage originating from urban lands and road deicers. Stations with decreasing trends also have larger percentages of predicted dissolved-solids load originating from cultivated lands and pasture lands, compared to stations with increasing trends or no trends.

Facial soft tissue depths in craniofacial identification (part I): An analytical review of the published adult data.

PubMed

Stephan, Carl N; Simpson, Ellie K

2008-11-01

With the ever increasing production of average soft tissue depth studies, data are becoming increasingly complex, less standardized, and more unwieldy. So far, no overarching review has been attempted to determine: the validity of continued data collection; the usefulness of the existing data subcategorizations; or if a synthesis is possible to produce a manageable soft tissue depth library. While a principal components analysis would provide the best foundation for such an assessment, this type of investigation is not currently possible because of a lack of easily accessible raw data (first, many studies are narrow; second, raw data are infrequently published and/or stored and are not always shared by some authors). This paper provides an alternate means of investigation using an hierarchical approach to review and compare the effects of single variables on published mean values for adults whilst acknowledging measurement errors and within-group variation. The results revealed: (i) no clear secular trends at frequently investigated landmarks; (ii) wide variation in soft tissue depth measures between different measurement techniques irrespective of whether living persons or cadavers were considered; (iii) no clear clustering of non-Caucasoid data far from the Caucasoid means; and (iv) minor differences between males and females. Consequently, the data were pooled across studies using weighted means and standard deviations to cancel out random and opposing study-specific errors, and to produce a single soft tissue depth table with increased sample sizes (e.g., 6786 individuals at pogonion).

Spatiotemporal trends in extreme rainfall and temperature indices over Upper Tapi Basin, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Priyank J.; Loliyana, V. D.; S. R., Resmi; Timbadiya, P. V.; Patel, P. L.

2017-12-01

The flood risk across the globe is intensified due to global warming and subsequent increase in extreme temperature and precipitation. The long-term trends in extreme rainfall (1944-2013) and temperature (1969-2012) indices have been investigated at annual, seasonal, and monthly time scales using nonparametric Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), and Sen's slope estimator tests. The extreme rainfall and temperature indices, recommended by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI), have been analyzed at finer spatial scales for trend detection. The results of trend analyses indicate decreasing trend in annual total rainfall, significant decreasing trend in rainy days, and increasing trend in rainfall intensity over the basin. The seasonal rainfall has been found to decrease for all the seasons except postmonsoon, which could affect the rain-fed agriculture in the basin. The 1- and 5-day annual maximum rainfalls exhibit mixed trends, wherein part of the basin experiences increasing trend, while other parts experience a decreasing trend. The increase in dry spells and concurrent decrease in wet spells are also observed over the basin. The extreme temperature indices revealed increasing trends in hottest and coldest days, while decreasing trends in coldest night are found over most parts of the basin. Further, the diurnal temperature range is also found to increase due to warming tendency in maximum temperature (T max) at a faster rate compared to the minimum temperature (T min). The increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme rainfall in the basin has been attributed to the increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperatures, reducing forest cover, rapid pace of urbanization, increase in human population, and thereby increase in the aerosol content in the atmosphere. The findings of the present study would significantly help in sustainable water resource planning, better decision-making for policy framework, and setting up infrastructure against flood disasters in Upper Tapi Basin, India.

Validation of Twitter opinion trends with national polling aggregates: Hillary Clinton vs Donald Trump.

PubMed

Bovet, Alexandre; Morone, Flaviano; Makse, Hernán A

2018-06-06

Measuring and forecasting opinion trends from real-time social media is a long-standing goal of big-data analytics. Despite the large amount of work addressing this question, there has been no clear validation of online social media opinion trend with traditional surveys. Here we develop a method to infer the opinion of Twitter users by using a combination of statistical physics of complex networks and machine learning based on hashtags co-occurrence to build an in-domain training set of the order of a million tweets. We validate our method in the context of 2016 US Presidential Election by comparing the Twitter opinion trend with the New York Times National Polling Average, representing an aggregate of hundreds of independent traditional polls. The Twitter opinion trend follows the aggregated NYT polls with remarkable accuracy. We investigate the dynamics of the social network formed by the interactions among millions of Twitter supporters and infer the support of each user to the presidential candidates. Our analytics unleash the power of Twitter to uncover social trends from elections, brands to political movements, and at a fraction of the cost of traditional surveys.

Home care for older people in Sweden: a universal model in transition.

PubMed

Szebehely, Marta; Trydegård, Gun-Britt

2012-05-01

One aspect of universalism in Swedish eldercare services is that publicly financed and publicly provided services have been both affordable for the poor and attractive enough to be preferred by the middle class. This article identifies two trends in home care for older people in Sweden: a decline in the coverage of publicly funded services and their increasing marketisation. We explore the mechanisms behind these trends by reviewing policy documents and official reports, and discuss the distributional consequences of the changes by analysing two data sets from Statistics Sweden: the Swedish Level of Living surveys from 1988/1989 and 2004/2005 and a database on all users of tax deductions on household and care services in 2009. The analysis shows that the decline of tax-funded home care is not the result of changing eldercare legislation and was not intended by national policy-makers. Rather the decline was caused by a complex interplay of decision-making at central and local levels, resulting in stricter municipal targeting. The trend towards marketisation has been more clearly intended by national policy-makers. Legislative changes have opened up tax-funded services to private provision, and a customer-choice (voucher) model and a tax deduction for household- and care services have been introduced. As a result of declining tax-funded home-care services, older persons with lower education increasingly receive family care, while those with higher education are more likely to buy private services. The combination of income-related user fees, customer-choice models and the tax deduction has created an incentive for high-income older persons to turn to the market instead of using public home-care services. Thus, Swedish home care, as a universal welfare service, is now under threat and may become increasingly dominated by groups with less education and lower income which, in turn, could jeopardise the quality of care. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Dietary and stored iron as predictors of breast cancer risk: A nested case-control study in Shanghai.

PubMed

Moore, Amber B; Shannon, Jackilen; Chen, Chu; Lampe, Johanna W; Ray, Roberta M; Lewis, Sharon K; Lin, Minggang; Stalsberg, Helge; Thomas, David B

2009-09-01

Increases in risk of breast cancer in successive generations of migrants to the United States from China and rapid temporal changes in incidence rates in China following social and economic changes clearly implicate environmental factors in the etiology of this disease. Case-control and cohort studies have provided evidence that at least some of these factors may be dietary. Iron, an essential element necessary for cell function, has also been demonstrated to have potential carcinogenic and co-carcinogenic activities. Iron overload, which was previously uncommon, has become more common in the United States than iron deficiency and may be increasing in China concurrently with dramatic increases in meat consumption. A case-control study nested in a cohort of women in Shanghai, China, was conducted to evaluate possible associations between risk of proliferative and nonproliferative fibrocystic changes as well as breast cancer and dietary iron intake and plasma ferritin levels. Plasma ferritin levels and reported dietary iron intake were compared in 346 women with fibrocystic changes, 248 breast cancer cases and 1,040 controls. Increasing ferritin levels were significantly associated with increasing risk of nonproliferative fibrocystic changes (OR: 2.51, 95% CI: 1.16-5.45, p trend = 0.04). Similar, but weaker, trends were observed for proliferative changes and for breast cancer. Risk of breast cancer relative to the risk of fibrocystic changes was associated with dietary iron intake in women with nonproliferative fibrocystic changes (OR: 2.63, 95% CI: 1.04-6.68, p = 0.02). In conclusion, this study finds significant associations between iron (stored and dietary) and fibrocystic disease and breast cancer. 2009 UICC.

Slowing of the HIV Epidemic in Ukraine: Evidence from Case Reporting and Key Population Surveys, 2005–2012

PubMed Central

Vitek, Charles R.; Čakalo, Jurja-Ivana; Kruglov, Yuri V.; Dumchev, Konstantin V.; Salyuk, Tetyana O.; Božičević, Ivana; Baughman, Andrew L.; Spindler, Hilary H.; Martsynovska, Violetta A.; Kobyshcha, Yuri V.; Abdul-Quader, Abu S.; Rutherford, George W.

2014-01-01

Background Ukraine developed Europe's most severe HIV epidemic due to widespread transmission among persons who inject drugs (PWID). Since 2004, prevention has focused on key populations; antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage has increased. Recent data show increases in reported HIV cases through 2011, especially attributed to sexual transmission, but also signs of potential epidemic slowing. We conducted a data triangulation exercise to better analyze available data and inform program implementation. Methods and Findings We reviewed data for 2005 to 2012 from multiple sources, primarily national HIV case reporting and integrated biobehavioral surveillance (IBBS) studies among key populations. Annually reported HIV cases increased at a progressively slower rate through 2011 with recent increases only among older, more immunosuppressed individuals; cases decreased 2.7% in 2012. Among women <25 years of age, cases attributed to heterosexual transmission and HIV prevalence in antenatal screening declined after 2008. Reported cases among young PWID declined by three-fourths. In 2011, integrated biobehavioral surveillance demonstrated decreased HIV prevalence among young members of key populations compared with 2009. HIV infection among female sex workers (FSW) remains strongly associated with a personal history of injecting drug use (IDU). Conclusions This analysis suggests that Ukraine's HIV epidemic has slowed, with decreasing reported cases and older cases predominating among those diagnosed. Recent decreases in cases and in prevalence support decreased incidence among young PWID and women. Trends among heterosexual men and men who have sex with men (MSM) are less clear; further study and enhanced MSM prevention are needed. FSW appear to have stable prevalence with risk strongly associated with IDU. Current trends suggest the Ukrainian epidemic can be contained with enhanced prevention among key populations and increased treatment access. PMID:25251080

Operative Fixation for Clavicle Fractures-Socioeconomic Differences Persist Despite Overall Population Increases in Utilization.

PubMed

Schairer, William W; Nwachukwu, Benedict U; Warren, Russell F; Dines, David M; Gulotta, Lawrence V

2017-06-01

Clavicle fractures were traditionally treated conservatively, but recent evidence has shown improved outcomes with surgical management. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the recent trends in operative treatment of clavicle fractures, and to analyze for patient related factors that may affect treatment strategy. The Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) California and Florida inpatient, outpatient, and the Emergency Department databases were used to identify all patients with clavicle fractures between 2005 and 2010. We evaluated the overall number of procedures over the study period and calculated the rates of operative and nonoperative treatment by tracking a large cohort of emergency department patients with clavicle fractures. Poisson and multivariable regression were used to identify trends and patient factors associated with treatment. There was a 290% increase in the annual number clavicle fracture procedures over the study period. The rate of fixation increased from 3.7% to 11.1% (P < 0.001). Significant increases were seen in all patient age groups less than 65 years. Comparatively, higher rates of fixation were found in patients who were white, privately insured, and of high-income status. Lower income status was also associated with delayed surgery. The rates of clavicle fracture fixation have increased. However, there are differences associated with socioeconomic factors including race, insurance type, and income level. In part, this likely representing both underutilization and overutilization but may also show differential access to care. This differential utilization suggests both that further work is needed to more clearly define indications for operative versus nonoperative management and to further evaluate referral systems and access to care to ensure equal and quality treatment is available for all patients. Prognostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Optical clearing of skin using flash lamp-induced enhancement of epidermal permeability.

PubMed

Tuchin, V V; Altshuler, G B; Gavrilova, A A; Pravdin, A B; Tabatadze, D; Childs, J; Yaroslavsky, I V

2006-10-01

Strong light scattering in skin prevents precise targeting of optical energy in therapeutic and diagnostic applications. Optical immersion based on matching refractive index of scattering centers with that of surrounding matter through introduction of an exogenous index-matching agent can alleviate the problem. However, slow diffusion of the index-matching agent through skin barrier makes practical implementation of this approach difficult. We propose a method of accelerating penetration of the index-matching compounds by enhancing skin permeability through creating a lattice of micro-zones (islets) of limited thermal damage in the stratum corneum (SC). A flash lamp (intense pulsed light) system and an island mask with a pattern of absorbing centers (center size approximately 75-120 microm, lattice pitch approximately 450-500 microm) were used to create the lattice of islets of damage (LID). Index-matching agents, such as glucose solution, propylene glycol solution, and glycerol solution, were applied. Experimental results of optical clearing ex vivo rat and pig skin, and ex vivo and in vivo human skin are presented. Optical transmission spectra of the skin samples with LID were measured during some 2 hours after application of index-matching chemical agents. In order to assess and compare the clearing rate under different treatment and clearing agents we calculated the quantity that we call "relative transmittance": T(rel) = I(t)(lambda)/I(0)(lambda), were I(t)(lambda) is the intensity measured at elapsed time t. The dynamics of relative transmittance of skin samples at 470 and 650 nm shows that the implementation of limited thermal damage technique leads to a 3-10-fold increase of optical clearing (rise of transmittance) rate compared to the results obtained when the samples were treated with high-intensity light pulses but without the use of island damage mask (IDM). It was observed from the plotted spectra of relative transmittance that the maximum increase of transmitted light intensity has been obtained with glucose solution as a clearing agent. Noteworthy is the difference in the trend of spectral curves: relative transmittance spectrum for glycerol reveals, on the whole, a greater slope which may be indicative of higher extent of index matching between the scattering centers and base material for this index-matching agent. Under the transillumination of the skin sample by the wide flat beam the more effective clearing (the increase of transmitted intensity) is attained within the hemoglobin absorption bands; with the narrow quasi-collimated beam the higher relative transmittance was observed over the intervals of minimum absorption. The use of specially designed island mask combined with non-laser intensive pulse irradiation produces a lattice of islands of limited thermal damage in SC that substantially enhances the penetration rate of topically applied index-matching agents. The suggested technique gave comparable magnitudes of clearing dynamics enhancement for glucose solution, glycerol solution, and propylene glycol solution applied to mammalian skin.

Highlighting the Way Forward: A Review of Community Mental Health Research and Practice Published in AJCP and JCP.

PubMed

Townley, Greg; Terry, Rachel

2018-03-01

Articles published in the two most prominent journals of community psychology in North America, the American Journal of Community Psychology (AJCP) and Journal of Community Psychology (JCP), provide a clear indicator of trends in community research and practice. An examination of community psychology's history and scholarship suggests that the field has reduced its emphasis on promoting mental health, well-being, and liberation of individuals with serious mental illnesses over the past several decades. To further investigate this claim, the current review presents an analysis of articles relevant to community mental health (N = 307) published in the American Journal of Community Psychology (AJCP) and Journal of Community Psychology (JCP) from 1973 to 2015. The review focuses on article characteristics (e.g., type of article and methods employed), author characteristics, topic areas, and theoretical frameworks. Results document a downward trend in published articles from the mid-1980s to mid-2000s, with a substantial increase in published work between 2006 and 2015. A majority of articles were empirical and employed quantitative methods. The most frequent topic area was community mental health centers and services (n = 49), but the past three decades demonstrate a clear shift away from mental health service provision to address pressing social issues that impact community mental health, particularly homelessness (n = 42) and community integration of adults with serious mental illnesses (n = 40). Findings reflect both the past and present state of community psychology and suggest promising directions for re-engaging with community mental health and fostering well-being, inclusion, and liberation of adults experiencing serious mental health challenges. © Society for Community Research and Action 2017.

Molecular Genetic Diversity of Major Indian Rice Cultivars over Decadal Periods

PubMed Central

Deborah, Dondapati Annekitty; Vipparla, Abhilash; Anuradha, Ghanta; Siddiq, Ebrahimali Abubacker; Vemireddy, Lakshminarayana Reddy

2013-01-01

Genetic diversity in representative sets of high yielding varieties of rice released in India between 1970 and 2010 was studied at molecular level employing hypervariable microsatellite markers. Of 64 rice SSR primer pairs studied, 52 showed polymorphism, when screened in 100 rice genotypes. A total of 184 alleles was identified averaging 3.63 alleles per locus. Cluster analysis clearly grouped the 100 genotypes into their respective decadal periods i.e., 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s. The trend of diversity over the decadal periods estimated based on the number of alleles (Na), allelic richness (Rs), Nei’s genetic diversity index (He), observed heterozygosity (Ho) and polymorphism information content (PIC) revealed increase of diversity over the periods in year of releasewise and longevitywise classification of rice varieties. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) suggested more variation in within the decadal periods than among the decades. Pairwise comparison of population differentiation (Fst) among decadal periods showed significant difference between all the pairs except a few. Analysis of trends of appearing and disappearing alleles over decadal periods showed an increase in the appearance of alleles and decrease in disappearance in both the categories of varieties. It was obvious from the present findings, that genetic diversity was progressively on the rise in the varieties released during the decadal periods, between 1970s and 2000s. PMID:23805204

Toward the effective surveillance of hypospadias.

PubMed

Dolk, Helen; Vrijheid, Martine; Scott, John E S; Addor, Marie-Claude; Botting, Bev; de Vigan, Catherine; de Walle, Hermien; Garne, Ester; Loane, Maria; Pierini, Anna; Garcia-Minaur, Sixto; Physick, Nigel; Tenconi, Romano; Wiesel, Awi; Calzolari, Elisa; Stone, David

2004-03-01

Concern about apparent increases in the prevalence of hypospadias--a congenital male reproductive-tract abnormality--in the 1960s to 1980s and the possible connection to increasing exposures to endocrine-disrupting chemicals have underlined the importance of effective surveillance of hypospadias prevalence in the population. We report here the prevalence of hypospadias from 1980 to 1999 in 20 regions of Europe with EUROCAT (European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies) population-based congenital anomaly registers, 14 of which implemented a guideline to exclude glanular hypospadias. We also report data from the England and Wales National Congenital Anomaly System (NCAS). Our results do not suggest a continuation of rising trends of hypospadias prevalence in Europe. However, a survey of the registers and a special validation study conducted for the years 1994-1996 in nine EUROCAT registers as well as NCAS identified a clear need for a change in the guidelines for registration of hypospadias. We recommend that all hypospadias be included in surveillance, but that information from surgeons be obtained to verify location of the meatus, and whether surgery was performed, in order to interpret trends. Investing resources in repeated special surveys may be more cost-effective than continuous population surveillance. We conclude that it is doubtful whether we have had the systems in place worldwide for the effective surveillance of hypospadias in relation to exposure to potential endocrine-disrupting chemicals.

Increasing drought risk in large-dam basins of South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, I. W.; Shin, Y.; Park, J.; Kim, D.

2017-12-01

In 2015, South Korea suffered one of the worst droughts in recent years. Seoul and Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces experienced severe drought conditions, receiving less than 43 percent of the annual precipitation average of the past 30 years. Additionally, the 2015 summer precipitation was less than half of the average. The lack of summer precipitation induced serious shortages in dam storages, which are important supplies for the dry season. K-water, a public company managing South Korea's public water supply system, is fighting to secure public water supply and minimize potential damage that may occur before the subsequent wet season. This study detected significant decreasing trends (95% confidence interval) in dry-seasonal runoff rates (=dam inflow / precipitation) in three dams basins (Soyang, Chungju, and Andong). Changes in potential evapotranspiration (PET) and precipitation indices were examined to investigate potential causes of decreasing runoff rates trends. However, there were no clear relations among changes in runoff rates, PET, and precipitation indices. Runoff rate reduction in the three dams may increase the risk of dam operational management and long-term water resource planning. Therefore, it will be necessary to perform a multilateral analysis to better understand decreasing runoff rates.AcknowledgementsThis research was supported by a grant(2017-MPSS31-001) from Supporting Technology Development Program for Disaster Management funded by Ministry of Public Safety and Security(MPSS) of the Korean government.

Opto-microwave Butler matrixes based front-end for a multi-beam large direct radiating array antenna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piqueras, M. A.; Mengual, T.; Navasquillo, O.; Sotom, M.; Caille, G.

2017-09-01

The evolution of broadband communication satellites shows a clear trend towards beam forming and beam-switching systems with efficient multiple access schemes with wide bandwidths, for which to be economically viable, the communication price shall be as low as possible.

Ethics Training: Facing the Tough Questions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Chris

1986-01-01

Discusses various aspects of ethics in business: recent trends in business, definitions of ethics, ways of applying the Golden Rule, management's role, educating people to think about ethics differently, beyond ethics training, making standards clear and sticking to them, and the belief that people want to do the right thing. (CT)

The Family: A School for Living

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garbarino, James

1976-01-01

In the face of so many trends toward fragmentation, overspecialization, and instrumentally impersonal relationships in the day-to-day lives of families, the cause of social habitability is best served when we are able to see clearly the ecology of human development: families as schools for living and schools as families. (Author)

Private Higher Education in Russia: Capacity for Innovation and Investment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Geroimenko, Vladimir A.; Kliucharev, Grigori A.; Morgan, W. John

2012-01-01

This article considers the potential role of private institutions in the development of Russian higher education. After decades of a government centralised higher education system, there is a clear trend towards the privatisation of education institutions and the diversification of education practices. Some commentators consider this to indicate…

Professional Identity: A Qualitative Inquiry of Experienced Counsellors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alves, Sara; Gazzola, Nicola

2011-01-01

There are many recent changes to the practice of counselling and psychotherapy in Canada. Newly established statutory regulation of psychotherapy in Ontario and Quebec, and new legislation in the province of Nova Scotia protecting the title "counselling therapist," are examples of an emerging trend in Canada that seeks to clearly define…

77 FR 70865 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; National Securities Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-11-27

... industry standard for processing and settling mutual fund transactions. Through automated, standardized... trend in the mutual fund industry toward omnibus processing, a practice where distribution firms bundle... to Fund/SERV[supreg] Fees November 20, 2012. Pursuant to Section 19(b)(1) of the Securities Exchange...

Mixing Methods in Instructional Research. Forum: The Future of Instructional Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meluch, Andrea L.

2017-01-01

"Communication Education's" commitment to publishing rigorous instructional communication research with a diversity of methods is clear in its publication of quantitative, qualitative, and critical articles (Witt, 2012). Here, Andrea Meluch argues that the trends in the most recent research published within this journal indicate a lack…

Point Counts of Birds: What Are We Estimating?

Treesearch

Douglas H. Johnson

1995-01-01

Point counts of birds are made for many reasons, including estimating local densities, determining population trends, assessing habitat preferences, and exploiting the activities of recreational birdwatchers. Problems arise unless there is a clear understanding of what point counts mean in terms of actual populations of birds. Criteria for conducting point counts...

Effective Second Language Writing. TESOL Classroom Practice Series

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kasten, Susan, Ed.

2010-01-01

The classroom practices discussed in "Effective Second Language Writing" reflect various trends and methodologies; however, the underlying theme in this volume of the Classroom Practice Series is the need for clear and meaningful communication between ESL writers and their readers. While approaches differ, two core beliefs are constant: ESL…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobson, Heather R.; Pilachowski, Catherine A.; Friel, Eileen D., E-mail: jacob189@msu.edu, E-mail: catyp@astro.indiana.edu, E-mail: edfriel@mac.com

We present a detailed chemical abundance study of evolved stars in 10 open clusters based on Hydra multi-object echelle spectra obtained with the WIYN 3.5 m telescope. From an analysis of both equivalent widths and spectrum synthesis, abundances have been determined for the elements Fe, Na, O, Mg, Si, Ca, Ti, Ni, Zr, and for two of the 10 clusters, Al and Cr. To our knowledge, this is the first detailed abundance analysis for clusters NGC 1245, NGC 2194, NGC 2355, and NGC 2425. These 10 clusters were selected for analysis because they span a Galactocentric distance range R{sub gc}more » {approx} 9-13 kpc, the approximate location of the transition between the inner and outer disks. Combined with cluster samples from our previous work and those of other studies in the literature, we explore abundance trends as a function of cluster R{sub gc}, age, and [Fe/H]. As found previously by us and other studies, the [Fe/H] distribution appears to decrease with increasing R{sub gc} to a distance of {approx}12 kpc and then flattens to a roughly constant value in the outer disk. Cluster average element [X/Fe] ratios appear to be independent of R{sub gc}, although the picture for [O/Fe] is more complicated with a clear trend of [O/Fe] with [Fe/H] and sample incompleteness. Other than oxygen, no other element [X/Fe] exhibits a clear trend with [Fe/H]; likewise, there does not appear to be any strong correlation between abundance and cluster age. We divided clusters into different age bins to explore temporal variations in the radial element distributions. The radial metallicity gradient appears to have flattened slightly as a function of time, as found by other studies. There is also some indication that the transition from the inner disk metallicity gradient to the {approx}constant [Fe/H] distribution of the outer disk occurs at different Galactocentric radii for different age bins. However, interpretation of the time evolution of radial abundance distributions is complicated by the unequal R{sub gc} and [Fe/H] ranges spanned by clusters in different age bins.« less

Commissions as educating organizations: How to educate the public regarding the mission of the public utilities commission in the new regulatory environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sevel, F.

1996-12-31

Numerous authors have discussed the massive changes in the new regulatory environment and the necessary impact of these changes on the roles, responsibilities, structure, function, and mission of the public utility commission. In fact, when public utility commissioners gathered in Denver for the NRRI/NARUC Commissioners Summit in April 1995, {open_quotes}they made it clear that they embraced change as necessary to effective commission functioning in new regulatory environments and made it clear that they were prepared to direct that change.{close_quotes} The Commissioners identified the following trends of change: (1) Dichotomy of customers in core and noncore groupings. (2) Unbundling and newmore » service offerings. (3) Deregulation of certain services and markets. (4) Increased use of market-based pricing and incentive ratemaking. (5) Large users seeking lowest-cost service providers. (6) Shift from old regulatory compact [of] territorial exclusivity and assured recovery. (7) Changing obligation to serve. (8) Utility diversification into other businesses and use of holding company structures. (9) Increased business risk for utilities. (10) Uncertainty as to continued attention to social goals. In response to these changes, they identified five clusters of core missions for public utility commissions: (1) Protection of those customers who would not reap the full benefits of competition. (2) Support of competition balanced with an interest in fair and effective competition. (3) The provision of timely and clear decisions to utility managers and allowing utilities the flexibility to adapt to new conditions. (4) Preserving the commitment to social goals compatible with the competitive market. (5) Addressing the impact of new corporate structures, jurisdictional changes, necessary change in regulatory methods, and customer protection in the new environment.« less

Average sperm count remains unchanged despite reduction in maternal smoking: results from a large cross-sectional study with annual investigations over 21 years.

PubMed

Priskorn, L; Nordkap, L; Bang, A K; Krause, M; Holmboe, S A; Egeberg Palme, D L; Winge, S B; Mørup, N; Carlsen, E; Joensen, U N; Blomberg Jensen, M; Main, K M; Juul, A; Skakkebaek, N E; Jensen, T K; Jørgensen, N

2018-06-01

How are temporal trends in lifestyle factors, including exposure to maternal smoking in utero, associated to semen quality in young men from the general population? Exposure to maternal smoking was associated with lower sperm counts but no overall increase in sperm counts was observed during the study period despite a decrease in this exposure. Meta-analyses suggest a continuous decline in semen quality but few studies have investigated temporal trends in unselected populations recruited and analysed with the same protocol over a long period and none have studied simultaneous trends in lifestyle factors. Cross-sectional population-based study including ~300 participants per year (total number = 6386) between 1996 and 2016. The study is based on men from the Greater Copenhagen area, Denmark, with a median age of 19 years, and unselected with regard to fertility status and semen quality. The men delivered a semen sample, had a blood sample drawn and a physical examination performed and answered a comprehensive questionnaire, including information on lifestyle and the mother's pregnancy. Temporal trends in semen quality and lifestyle were illustrated graphically, and trends in semen parameters and the impact of prenatal and current lifestyle factors were explored in multiple regression analyses. Throughout the study period, 35% of the men had low semen quality. Overall, there were no persistent temporal trends in semen quality, testicular volume or levels of follicle-stimulating hormone over the 21 years studied. The men's alcohol intake was lowest between 2011 and 2016, whereas BMI, use of medication and smoking showed no clear temporal trends. Parental age increased, and exposure in utero to maternal smoking declined from 40% among men investigated in 1996-2000 to 18% among men investigated in 2011-2016. Exposure to maternal smoking was associated with lower sperm counts but no overall increase in sperm counts was observed despite the decrease in this exposure. Information of current and prenatal lifestyle was obtained by self-report, and the men delivered only one semen sample each. The significant decline in in utero exposure to maternal smoking, which was not reflected in an overall improvement of semen quality at the population level, suggest that other unknown adverse factors may maintain the low semen quality among Danish men. The study has received financial support from the ReproUnion; the Research fund of Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen University Hospital; the European Union (Contract numbers BMH4-CT96-0314,QLK4-CT-1999-01422, QLK4-CT-2002-00603, FP7/2007-2013, DEER Grant agreement no. 212844); the Danish Ministry of Health; the Danish Environmental Protection Agency; A.P. Møller and wife Chastine McKinney Møllers foundation; and Svend Andersens Foundation. None of the funders had any role in the study design, collection, analysis or interpretation of data, writing of the paper or publication decisions. N/A.

Borehole Volumetric Strainmeters Detect Very Long-period Ocean Level Changes in Tokai Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takanami, T.; Linde, A. T.; Sacks, S. I.; Kitagawa, G.; Hirata, N.; Rydelek, P. A.

2015-12-01

We detected a clear very long-period strain signal with a predominant period of about 2 months in the data from Sacks-Evertson borehole volumetric strainmeters. These have been operated by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) since 1976 in Tokai area, Japan, the area of an expected Tokai eartquake. Earth's surface is always influenced by natural force such as earth tide, air pressure, and precipitation as well as by human induced sources. In order to decompose into their components in the maximum likelihood estimation, state-space modeling (Takanami et al., 2013) is applied to the observed time series data for 15 months before and after the earthquake M6.5 that occurred on 11th August 2009 in Suruga Bay. In the analysis, the strain data are decomposed into trend, air pressure, earth tide, precipitation effects and observation noise. Clear long-period strain signals are seen in the normalized trend component time series. Time series data from JMA tide gages around Suruga Bay are similarly decomposed. Then spectral analyses are applied to the trend components for the same time interval. Comparison of amplitude peaks in spectra for both data sets show all have a peak at period of about 1464 hours. Thus strain changes may be influenced by very long-period ocean level changes; it is necessary to consider this possibility before attributing tectonic significance to such variations.

Association between adult height, genetic susceptibility and risk of glioma

PubMed Central

Kitahara, Cari M; Wang, Sophia S; Melin, Beatrice S; Wang, Zhaoming; Braganza, Melissa; Inskip, Peter D; Albanes, Demetrius; Andersson, Ulrika; Beane Freeman, Laura E; Buring, Julie E; Carreón, Tania; Feychting, Maria; Gapstur, Susan M; Gaziano, J Michael; Giles, Graham G; Hallmans, Goran; Hankinson, Susan E; Henriksson, Roger; Hsing, Ann W; Johansen, Christoffer; Linet, Martha S; McKean-Cowdin, Roberta; Michaud, Dominique S; Peters, Ulrike; Purdue, Mark P; Rothman, Nathaniel; Ruder, Avima M; Sesso, Howard D; Severi, Gianluca; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Stevens, Victoria L; Visvanathan, Kala; Waters, Martha A; White, Emily; Wolk, Alicja; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Zheng, Wei; Hoover, Robert; Fraumeni, Joseph F; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Yeager, Meredith; Chanock, Stephen J; Hartge, Patricia; Rajaraman, Preetha

2012-01-01

Background Some, but not all, observational studies have suggested that taller stature is associated with a significant increased risk of glioma. In a pooled analysis of observational studies, we investigated the strength and consistency of this association, overall and for major sub-types, and investigated effect modification by genetic susceptibility to the disease. Methods We standardized and combined individual-level data on 1354 cases and 4734 control subjects from 13 prospective and 2 case–control studies. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for glioma and glioma sub-types were estimated using logistic regression models stratified by sex and adjusted for birth cohort and study. Pooled ORs were additionally estimated after stratifying the models according to seven recently identified glioma-related genetic variants. Results Among men, we found a positive association between height and glioma risk (≥190 vs 170–174 cm, pooled OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.11–2.61; P-trend = 0.01), which was slightly stronger after restricting to cases with glioblastoma (pooled OR = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.17–3.38; P-trend = 0.02). Among women, these associations were less clear (≥175 vs 160–164 cm, pooled OR for glioma = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.70–1.62; P-trend = 0.22; pooled OR for glioblastoma = 1.36, 95% CI: 0.77–2.39; P-trend = 0.04). In general, we did not observe evidence of effect modification by glioma-related genotypes on the association between height and glioma risk. Conclusion An association of taller adult stature with glioma, particularly for men and stronger for glioblastoma, should be investigated further to clarify the role of environmental and genetic determinants of height in the etiology of this disease. PMID:22933650

Association between adult height, genetic susceptibility and risk of glioma.

PubMed

Kitahara, Cari M; Wang, Sophia S; Melin, Beatrice S; Wang, Zhaoming; Braganza, Melissa; Inskip, Peter D; Albanes, Demetrius; Andersson, Ulrika; Beane Freeman, Laura E; Buring, Julie E; Carreón, Tania; Feychting, Maria; Gapstur, Susan M; Gaziano, J Michael; Giles, Graham G; Hallmans, Goran; Hankinson, Susan E; Henriksson, Roger; Hsing, Ann W; Johansen, Christoffer; Linet, Martha S; McKean-Cowdin, Roberta; Michaud, Dominique S; Peters, Ulrike; Purdue, Mark P; Rothman, Nathaniel; Ruder, Avima M; Sesso, Howard D; Severi, Gianluca; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Stevens, Victoria L; Visvanathan, Kala; Waters, Martha A; White, Emily; Wolk, Alicja; Zeleniuch-Jacquotte, Anne; Zheng, Wei; Hoover, Robert; Fraumeni, Joseph F; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Yeager, Meredith; Chanock, Stephen J; Hartge, Patricia; Rajaraman, Preetha

2012-08-01

Some, but not all, observational studies have suggested that taller stature is associated with a significant increased risk of glioma. In a pooled analysis of observational studies, we investigated the strength and consistency of this association, overall and for major sub-types, and investigated effect modification by genetic susceptibility to the disease. We standardized and combined individual-level data on 1354 cases and 4734 control subjects from 13 prospective and 2 case-control studies. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for glioma and glioma sub-types were estimated using logistic regression models stratified by sex and adjusted for birth cohort and study. Pooled ORs were additionally estimated after stratifying the models according to seven recently identified glioma-related genetic variants. Among men, we found a positive association between height and glioma risk (≥ 190 vs 170-174 cm, pooled OR = 1.70, 95% CI: 1.11-2.61; P-trend = 0.01), which was slightly stronger after restricting to cases with glioblastoma (pooled OR = 1.99, 95% CI: 1.17-3.38; P-trend = 0.02). Among women, these associations were less clear (≥ 175 vs 160-164 cm, pooled OR for glioma = 1.06, 95% CI: 0.70-1.62; P-trend = 0.22; pooled OR for glioblastoma = 1.36, 95% CI: 0.77-2.39; P-trend = 0.04). In general, we did not observe evidence of effect modification by glioma-related genotypes on the association between height and glioma risk. An association of taller adult stature with glioma, particularly for men and stronger for glioblastoma, should be investigated further to clarify the role of environmental and genetic determinants of height in the etiology of this disease.

Recent trends in energy flows through the Arctic climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayer, Michael; Haimberger, Leo

2016-04-01

While Arctic climate change can be diagnosed in many parameters, a comprehensive assessment of long-term changes and low frequency variability in the coupled Arctic energy budget still remains challenging due to the complex physical processes involved and the lack of observations. Here we draw on strongly improved observational capabilities of the past 15 years and employ observed radiative fluxes from CERES along with state-of-the-art atmospheric as well as coupled ocean-ice reanalyses to explore recent changes in energy flows through the Arctic climate system. Various estimates of ice volume and ocean heat content trends imply that the energy imbalance of the Arctic climate system was >1 Wm-2 during the 2000-2015 period, where most of the extra heat warmed the ocean and a comparatively small fraction was used to melt sea ice. The energy imbalance was partly fed by enhanced oceanic heat transports into the Arctic, especially in the mid 2000s. Seasonal trends of net radiation show a very clear signal of the ice-albedo feedback. Stronger radiative energy input during summer means increased seasonal oceanic heat uptake and accelerated sea ice melt. In return, lower minimum sea ice extent and higher SSTs lead to enhanced heat release from the ocean during fall season. These results are consistent with modeling studies finding an enhancement of the annual cycle of surface energy exchanges in a warming Arctic. Moreover, stronger heat fluxes from the ocean to the atmosphere in fall tend to warm the arctic boundary layer and reduce meridional temperature gradients, thereby reducing atmospheric energy transports into the polar cap. Although the observed results are a robust finding, extended high-quality datasets are needed to reliably separate trends from low frequency variability.

Temporal trends and spatial patterns in nutrient export along the Mississippi River and its Tributaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, B.; Li, L.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi River, the largest river in the U. S., exports excessive nutrients from the land to the sea, causing the problem of hypoxia in the Gulf of Mexico. In this research, we examined nutrient export along the Mississippi River and its tributaries to understand its trends and patterns and to identify the major factors contributing to these trends. We examined nutrient data from 1950 - 2017 for four sites along the Mississippi River and four tributary sites from the U. S. Geological Survey. The species included: total nitrogen, organic nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, orthophosphate, and phosphorous. We analyzed the power law relationship of concentration and discharge, for which the export of nutrient species exhibited several trends. Both nitrogen (N) and phosphorous (P) species exhibited mostly chemodynamic behavior. This is in contrast to previous observations in smaller agricultural land where N and P export was mostly chemostatic with no significant change in concentration as discharge varies, suggesting possible scaling effects at different spatial scales. We also compared the average annual concentration over time at each site. The N concentration decreased from upstream to downstream, likely due to greater agricultural activities in the upstream Mississippi river and possible denitrification along the river. The N concentration also increased with time. The P species, however, fluctuated from site to site with no clear spatial patterns, but consistently exhibited higher concentrations at upstream sites with greater agricultural activities. The P species also fluctuated over time, likely due to patterns in discharge and agricultural activities. The results of this research can be further explored by calculating the total export of nutrients into the Gulf of Mexico to determine limits and drivers of nutrient export for better water management, thus helping prevent hypoxia and eutrophication within the Mississippi River basin.

Vitamin D Receptor Protein Expression in Tumor Tissue and Prostate Cancer Progression

PubMed Central

Hendrickson, Whitney K.; Flavin, Richard; Kasperzyk, Julie L.; Fiorentino, Michelangelo; Fang, Fang; Lis, Rosina; Fiore, Christopher; Penney, Kathryn L.; Ma, Jing; Kantoff, Philip W.; Stampfer, Meir J.; Loda, Massimo; Mucci, Lorelei A.; Giovannucci, Edward

2011-01-01

Purpose Data suggest that circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] interacts with the vitamin D receptor (VDR) to decrease proliferation and increase apoptosis for some malignancies, although evidence for prostate cancer is less clear. How VDR expression in tumor tissue may influence prostate cancer progression has not been evaluated in large studies. Patients and Methods We examined protein expression of VDR in tumor tissue among 841 patients with prostate cancer in relation to risk of lethal prostate cancer within two prospective cohorts, the Physicians' Health Study and Health Professionals Follow-Up Study. We also examined the association of VDR expression with prediagnostic circulating 25(OH)D and 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D levels and with two VDR single nucleotide polymorphisms, FokI and BsmI. Results Men whose tumors had high VDR expression had significantly lower prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at diagnosis (P for trend < .001), lower Gleason score (P for trend < .001), and less advanced tumor stage (P for trend < .001) and were more likely to have tumors harboring the TMPRSS2:ERG fusion (P for trend = .009). Compared with the lowest quartile, men whose tumors had the highest VDR expression had significantly reduced risk of lethal prostate cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 0.17; 95% CI, 0.07 to 0.41). This association was only slightly attenuated after adjustment for Gleason score and PSA at diagnosis (HR, 0.33; 95% CI, 0.13 to 0.83) or, additionally, for tumor stage (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.14 to 0.94). Neither prediagnostic plasma vitamin D levels nor VDR polymorphisms were associated with VDR expression. Conclusion High VDR expression in prostate tumors is associated with a reduced risk of lethal cancer, suggesting a role of the vitamin D pathway in prostate cancer progression. PMID:21537045

A prospective study of one-carbon metabolism biomarkers and cancer of the head and neck and esophagus.

PubMed

Fanidi, Anouar; Relton, Caroline; Ueland, Per Magne; Midttun, Øivind; Vollset, Stein Emil; Travis, Ruth C; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Lagiou, Pagona; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Bueno-de-Mesquita, H Bas; Ros, Martine; Boeing, Heiner; Tumino, Rosario; Panico, Salvatore; Palli, Domenico; Sieri, Sabina; Vineis, Paolo; Sánchez, María-José; Huerta, José María; Barricarte Gurrea, Aurelio; Luján-Barroso, Leila; Quirós, J Ramón; Tjønneland, Anne; Halkjær, Jytte; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Clavel-Chapelon, Françoise; Cadeau, Claire; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Johansson, Mikael; Riboli, Elio; Brennan, Paul; Johansson, Mattias

2015-02-15

Experimental and epidemiological data suggest that factors of one-carbon metabolism are important in the pathogenesis of several cancers, but prospective data on head and neck cancer (HNC) and esophagus cancer are limited. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study recruited 385,747 participants from 10 countries who donated a blood sample. The current study included 516 cancer cases of the head and neck and esophagus and 516 individually matched controls. Plasma levels of vitamins B2, B6, B9 (folate), B12, and methionine and homocysteine were measured in pre-diagnostic plasma samples and analyzed in relation to HNC and esophagus cancer risk, as well as post-diagnosis all-cause mortality. After controlling for risk factors, study participants with higher levels of homocysteine had elevated risk of HNC, the odds ratio (OR) in conditional analysis when comparing the top and bottom quartiles of homocysteine [ORQ4 vs. Q1 ] being 2.13 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.13-4.00, p for trend 0.009). A slight decrease in HNC risk was also seen among subjects with higher levels of folate (ORQ4 vs. Q1 0.63, 95% CI 0.35-1.16, p for trend 0.02). Subgroup analyses by anatomical sub-site indicated particularly strong associations with circulating homocysteine for oral cavity and gum cancer (p for trend 8×10(-4)), as well as for oropharynx cancer (p for trend 0.008). Plasma concentrations of the other investigated biomarkers did not display any clear association with risk or survival. In conclusion, study participants with elevated circulating levels of homocysteine had increased risk of developing squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. © 2014 UICC.

Validation of Globsnow-2 Snow Water Equivalent Over Eastern Canada

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Larue, Fanny; Royer, Alain; De Seve, Danielle; Langlois, Alexandre; Roy, Alexandre R.; Brucker, Ludovic

2017-01-01

In Qubec, Eastern Canada, snowmelt runoff contributes more than 30% of the annual energy reserve for hydroelectricity production, and uncertainties in annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) over the region are one of the main constraints for improved hydrological forecasting. Current satellite-based methods for mapping SWE over Qubec's main hydropower basins do not meet Hydro-Qubec operational requirements for SWE accuracies with less than 15% error. This paper assesses the accuracy of the GlobSnow-2 (GS-2) SWE product, which combines microwave satellite data and in situ measurements, for hydrological applications in Qubec. GS-2 SWE values for a 30-year period (1980 to 2009) were compared with space- and time-matched values from a comprehensive dataset of in situ SWE measurements (a total of 38,990 observations in Eastern Canada). The root mean square error (RMSE) of the GS-2 SWE product is 94.1+/- 20.3 mm, corresponding to an overall relative percentage error (RPE) of 35.9%. The main sources of uncertainty are wet and deep snow conditions (when SWE is higher than 150 mm), and forest cover type. However, compared to a typical stand-alone brightness temperature channel difference algorithm, the assimilation of surface information in the GS-2 algorithm clearly improves SWE accuracy by reducing the RPE by about 30%. Comparison of trends in annual mean and maximum SWE between surface observations and GS-2 over 1980-2009 showed agreement for increasing trends over southern Qubec, but less agreement on the sign and magnitude of trends over northern Qubec. Extended at a continental scale, the GS-2 SWE trends highlight a strong regional variability.

Land surface temperature over global deserts: Means, variability, and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Chunlüe; Wang, Kaicun

2016-12-01

Land surface air temperature (LSAT) has been a widely used metric to study climate change. Weather observations of LSAT are the fundamental data for climate change studies and provide key evidence of global warming. However, there are very few meteorological observations over deserts due to their uninhabitable environment. This study fills this gap and provides independent evidence using satellite-derived land surface temperatures (LSTs), benefiting from their global coverage. The frequency of clear sky from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data over global deserts was found to be greater than 94% for the 2002-2015 period. Our results show that MODIS LST has a bias of 1.36°C compared to ground-based observations collected at 31 U.S. Climate Reference Network (USCRN) stations, with a standard deviation of 1.83°C. After bias correction, MODIS LST was used to evaluate existing reanalyses, including ERA-Interim, Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), MERRA-land, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)-R1, and NCEP-R2. The reanalyses accurately reproduce the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the LSTs, but their multiyear means and trends of LSTs exhibit large uncertainties. The multiyear averaged LST over global deserts is 23.5°C from MODIS and varies from 20.8°C to 24.5°C in different reanalyses. The MODIS LST over global deserts increased by 0.25°C/decade from 2002 to 2015, whereas the reanalyses estimated a trend varying from -0.14 to 0.10°C/decade. The underestimation of the LST trend by the reanalyses occurs for approximately 70% of the global deserts, likely due to the imperfect performance of the reanalyses in reproducing natural climate variability.

Deuterium and 15N fractionation in N2H+ during the formation of a Sun-like star

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Simone, M.; Fontani, F.; Codella, C.; Ceccarelli, C.; Lefloch, B.; Bachiller, R.; López-Sepulcre, A.; Caux, E.; Vastel, C.; Soldateschi, J.

2018-05-01

Although chemical models predict that the deuterium fractionation in N2H+ is a good evolutionary tracer in the star formation process, the fractionation of nitrogen is still a poorly understood process. Recent models have questioned the similar evolutionary trend expected for the two fractionation mechanisms in N2H+, based on a classical scenario in which ion-neutral reactions occurring in cold gas should have caused an enhancement of the abundance of N2D+, 15NNH+, and N15NH+. In the framework of the ASAI IRAM-30m large program, we have investigated the fractionation of deuterium and 15N in N2H+ in the best known representatives of the different evolutionary stages of the Sun-like star formation process. The goal is to ultimately confirm (or deny) the classical `ion-neutral reactions' scenario that predicts a similar trend for D and 15N fractionation. We do not find any evolutionary trend of the 14N/15N ratio from both the 15NNH+ and N15NH+ isotopologues. Therefore, our findings confirm that, during the formation of a Sun-like star, the core evolution is irrelevant in the fractionation of 15N. The independence of the 14N/15N ratio with time, found also in high-mass star-forming cores, indicates that the enrichment in 15N revealed in comets and protoplanetary discs is unlikely to happen at core scales. Nevertheless, we have firmly confirmed the evolutionary trend expected for the H/D ratio, with the N2H+/N2D+ ratio decreasing before the pre-stellar core phase, and increasing monotonically during the protostellar phase. We have also confirmed clearly that the two fractionation mechanisms are not related.

Water quality in Indiana: trends in concentrations of selected nutrients, metals, and ions in streams, 2000-10

USGS Publications Warehouse

Risch, Martin R.; Bunch, Aubrey R.; Vecchia, Aldo V.; Martin, Jeffrey D.; Baker, Nancy T.

2014-01-01

Statistically significant trends were identified that included 167 downward trends and 83 upward trends. The Kankakee River Basin had the most significant upward trends while the most significant downward trends were in the Whitewater River Basin, the Lake Michigan Basin, and the Patoka River Basin. For most constituents, a majority of sites had significant downward trends. Two streams in the Lake Michigan Basin have shown substantial decreases in most constituents. The West Fork White River near Indianapolis, Indiana, showed increases in nitrate and phosphorus and the Kankakee River Basin showed increases in copper, zinc, chloride, sulfate, and hardness. Upward trends in nutrients were identified at a few sites, but most nutrient trends were downward. Upward trends in metals corresponded with relatively small concentration increases while downward trends involved considerably larger concentration changes. Downward trends in chloride, sulfate, and suspended solids were observed statewide, but upward trends in hardness were observed in the northern half of Indiana.

Emerging and continuing trends in psychotherapy: views from an editor's eye.

PubMed

Gelso, Charles J

2011-06-01

It is proposed that six major trends in psychotherapy have continued or emerged over the course of the author's editorship of Psychotherapy, the past seven years. These trends are (a) the increasing integration of techniques and the therapeutic relationship; (b) increasing focus on theoretical integration; (c) increasing efforts at research-practice integration; (d) increases in more specific, integrative reviews; (e) integration of biological, neuroscience understandings; and (f) integration of diversity and cultural considerations into psychotherapy. Each trend is described and its impact on the field is discussed. Cautions about each trend are also noted. The six trends are discussed in the context of integration.

A new generation of small pixel pitch/SWaP cooled infrared detectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espuno, L.; Pacaud, O.; Reibel, Y.; Rubaldo, L.; Kerlain, A.; Péré-Laperne, N.; Dariel, A.; Roumegoux, J.; Brunner, A.; Kessler, A.; Gravrand, O.; Castelein, P.

2015-10-01

Following clear technological trends, the cooled IR detectors market is now in demand for smaller, more efficient and higher performance products. This demand pushes products developments towards constant innovations on detectors, read-out circuits, proximity electronics boards, and coolers. Sofradir was first to show a 10μm focal plane array (FPA) at DSS 2012, and announced the DAPHNIS 10μm product line back in 2014. This pixel pitch is a key enabler for infrared detectors with increased resolution. Sofradir recently achieved outstanding products demonstrations at this pixel pitch, which clearly demonstrate the benefits of adopting 10μm pixel pitch focal plane array-based detectors. Both HD and XGA Daphnis 10μm products also benefit from a global video datapath efficiency improvement by transitioning to digital video interfaces. Moreover, innovative smart pixels functionalities drastically increase product versatility. In addition to this strong push towards a higher pixels density, Sofradir acknowledges the need for smaller and lower power cooled infrared detector. Together with straightforward system interfaces and better overall performances, latest technological advances on SWAP-C (Size, Weight, Power and Cost) Sofradir products enable the advent of a new generation of high performance portable and agile systems (handheld thermal imagers, unmanned aerial vehicles, light gimbals etc...). This paper focuses on those features and performances that can make an actual difference in the field.