Sample records for climate case study
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A Case Study of Land Treatment in a Cold Climate-West Dover, Vermont,
1982-12-01
Research & ADA124~i8Engineering Laboratory A case study of land treatment in a cold climate- West Dover, Vermont IT C;0 ~ 03 09 052 CRREL Report 82...44 December 1982 A case study of land treatment in a cold climate- West Dover, Vermont J.R. Bouzoun, D.W. Meals and E.A. Cassell Prepared for OFFICE OF...4. TITLE (end SL : 5. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD COVERED A CASE STUDY OF LAND TREATMENT IN A COLD CLIMATE-WEST DOVER, VERMONT 6. PERFORMING ORG. REPORT
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BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case ...
EPA announced the release of the final report, BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications. This report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the Better Assessment Science Integrating point & Non-point Sources (BASINS) and the Water Erosion Prediction Project Climate Assessment Tool (WEPPCAT). The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments of the potential effects of climate change on streamflow and water quality. This report presents a series of short, illustrative case studies using the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools.
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BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case ...
This draft report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments of the potential future effects of climate change on water resources. This report presents a series of short, illustrative case studies using the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools.
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76 FR 71341 - BASINS and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools: Case Study Guide to Potential Applications
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-11-17
... report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for... change impacts on water. This report presents a series of short case studies using the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The case studies are designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for...
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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices (2011 Final)
EPA has released the final report titled, Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices. This report was prepared by the National Center for Environmental Assessment's Global Climate Research Staff in the Office of Research and D...
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Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications
Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas
2005-01-01
Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.
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Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Trenbath, K. L.
2011-12-01
Scientists and educators strive to improve climate literacy throughout society, whether through communication of research findings or though classroom teaching. Despite these efforts, climate change misconceptions exist in students and the general public. When educators present evidence that contradicts misconceptions, students may begin to struggle with their inaccurate ideas and perhaps transition towards a scientifically-accepted understanding. These transitions, called conceptual change, can occur in college climate change courses. The purpose of this presentation is to describe college students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change and the way these ideas change throughout a climate change course. This presentation is based on five case studies of undergraduate students in a large lecture-hall course dedicated to climate change. Each case study student represents a different level of climate change understanding at the beginning of the semester. These case studies and subsequent cross-case analyses result from a qualitative research study using interviews, field notes, artifact analysis, coding and categorization, and research memos. The cases show shifts in all five students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change. During the first month of class, the three lower achieving students expressed uncertainty about the increase in average global temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change. At the end of the semester, these students explained that warming from climate change is natural, yet the rate of this warming is increasing due to human activities. Two of the lower achieving students constructed definitions of climate change different than the definition used by the professor in the classroom. These students solidified the idea that the term "climate change" describes the change that results from natural forcings only, while the term "global warming" describes change in the climate that results from human-caused forcings. Their constructed definition removes human-causes from association with the word "climate change", which may influence their climate change understanding. Of the two higher achieving students, one emphasized anthropogenic climate change at the beginning of the semester, but later focused on natural climate change during his interviews. The other high achieving student included tangential environmental topics in her descriptions of climate change throughout the entire semester, thus conflating climate change's definition. These alternative definitions of climate change indicate that the learners constructed hybrid conceptions in order to incorporate class content with their prior ideas. These hybrid conceptions indicate that the students' understandings lie somewhere between misconceptions and conceptual change. Since the students demonstrated these hybrid conceptions at the end of class, perhaps more time is needed for the students to process the information. These case studies identify the gaps the professor should address for conceptual change to fully occur.
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Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park
Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; O'Halloran, Kathy A.; Hoffman, Catherine H.
2011-01-01
Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, processes, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to counteract the negative effects of climate change. We began a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest (ONF) in partnership with Olympic National Park (ONP) to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to climate change. The case study began in the summer of 2008 and continued for 1½ years. The case study process involved science-based sensitivity assessments, review of management activities and constraints, and adaptation workshops in each of four focus areas (hydrology and roads, fish, vegetation, and wildlife). The process produced adaptation options for ONF and ONP, and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessment and science-management workshops in adapting to climate change. The case study process provides an example for other national forests, national parks, and natural resource agencies of how federal land management units can collaborate in the initial stages of climate change adaptation. Many of the ideas generated through this process can potentially be applied in other locations and in other agencies
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goodess, C. M.
2012-04-01
The CLIM-RUN case studies provide a real-world context for bringing together experts on the demand and supply side of climate services. They are essential to the CLIM-RUN objective of using iterative and bottom-up (i.e., stakeholder led) approaches for optimizing the two-way information transfer between climate experts and stakeholders. The region of interest for CLIM-RUN is the Mediterranean, which is a recognised climate change hotspot (i.e., a region particularly sensitive and vulnerable to global warming) and which does not currently have developed climate service networks such as exist in a number of Central and Northern European countries. The case studies focus on the energy and tourism sectors, but also include a cross-cutting study on wild fires (an issue of increasing concern in the Mediterranean) as well as a cross-sectorial integrated case study for the Venice lagoon. They span coastal (e.g., Tunisia and Croatia), island (e.g., Cyprus) and mountain (e.g., Savoie) environments, the eastern (e.g., Greece) to western (e.g., Spain, Morocco) Mediterranean regions, and regional to local foci. Stakeholder involvement has been critical from the start of the project in March 2011, with a series of targeted workshops helping to define the framework for each case study. Two specific workshop objectives were to (i) better understand who are the climate services stakeholders and (ii) what they need/want from climate services (both in terms of data products and broader knowledge). Many of the workshops were held in local languages to maximise stakeholder participation, with expert knowledge provided by the CLIM-RUN climate and stakeholder expert teams (the CET and SET). Following the workshops, CET members are 'translating' the user needs into specific requirements from climate observations and models and identifying areas where additional modelling and analysis are required. As part of the central co-ordination of the case studies, a perception and data needs questionnaire was produced to solicit information about stakeholder institutions and organisations, risk perception and current use of climate/weather information, perspectives on climate services, data requirements and handling uncertainties. The questionnaire was designed to be used in a very flexible way, adapted to individual case studies. It has been circulated via email, during and after workshops, made available in on-line form and has also provided the basis for structured interviews with stakeholders. From the preliminary CLIM-RUN work, it is evident that the different sectorial requirements and contexts, including differences in stakeholder expertise and perspectives and the importance of non-climatic considerations in decision making, support the tailored, bottom-up approach adopted. For instance, the energy sector is more keen to use detailed present-day climate information, while tourist stakeholders, although less constrained by climate issues, prefer seasonal timescale information. At the same time, these differences provide a challenge in terms of developing common methodologies and identifying priorities for the provision of climate services. Other challenges relate to the differences in stakeholder engagement across the case studies.
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Climate change and occurrence of diarrheal diseases: evolving facts from Nepal.
Bhandari, G P; Gurung, S; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L
2012-09-01
Climate change is becoming huge threat to health especially for those from developing countries. Diarrhea as one of the major diseases linked with changing climate. This study has been carried out to assess the relationship between climatic variables, and malaria and to find out the range of non-climatic factors that can confound the relationship of climate change and human health. It is a Retrospective study where data of past ten years relating to climate and disease (diarrhea) variable were analyzed. The study conducted trend analysis based on correlation. The climate related data were obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. Time Series analysis was also being conducted. The trend of number of yearly cases of diarrhea has been increasing from 1998 to 2001 after which the cases remain constant till 2006.The climate types in Jhapa vary from humid to per-humid based on the moisture index and Mega-thermal based on thermal efficiency. The mean annual temperature is increasing at an average of 0.04 °C/year with maximum temperature increasing faster than the minimum temperature. The annual total rainfall of Jhapa is decreasing at an average rate of -7.1 mm/year. Statistically significant correlation between diarrheal cases occurrence and temperature and rainfall has been observed. However, climate variables were not the significant predictors of diarrheal occurrence. The association among climate variables and diarrheal disease occurrence cannot be neglected which has been showed by this study. Further prospective longitudinal study adjusting influence of non-climatic factors is recommended.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shea, Nicole A.; Mouza, Chrystalla; Drewes, Andrea
2016-04-01
In this work, we present the design, implementation, and initial outcomes of the Climate Academy, a hybrid professional development program delivered through a combination of face-to-face and online interactions, intended to prepare formal and informal science teachers (grades 5-16) in teaching about climate change. The Climate Academy was designed around core elements of successful environmental professional development programs and aligned with practices advocated in benchmarked science standards. Data were collected from multiple sources including observations of professional development events, participants' reflections on their learning, and collection of instructional units designed during the Academy. Data were also collected from a focal case study teacher in a middle school setting. Case study data included classroom observations, teacher interviews, and student beliefs toward climate change. Results indicated that the Climate Academy fostered increased learning among participants of both climate science content and pedagogical strategies for teaching about climate change. Additionally, results indicated that participants applied their new learning in the design of climate change instructional units. Finally, results from the case study indicated positive impacts on student beliefs and greater awareness about climate change. Results have implications for the design of professional development programs on climate change, a topic included for the first time in national standards.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Walsh, E.; Tsurusaki, B.
2012-12-01
What are the implications of social controversy for the teaching and learning of climate change science? How do the political dimensions of this controversy affect learners' attitudes towards and reasoning about climate change and climate science? Case studies from a pilot enactment of an ecological impacts of climate change curriculum explore these questions by describing how five high school students' understandings of climate change science developed at the intersection of political and scientific values, attitudes, and ways of knowing. Case studies combine qualitative, ethnographic methods including interviews and classroom video observations with quantitative pre/post-assessments of student conceptual understandings and weekly surveys of student engagement. Data indicate that students had initial perceptions of climate change informed by the media and their families—both supporting and rejecting the scientific consensus—that influenced how they engaged with the scientific evidence. While students who were initially antagonistic to anthropogenic climate change did develop conceptual understandings of the scientific evidence for human-influences on climate change, this work was challenging and at times frustrating for them. These case studies demonstrate the wide range of initial attitudes and understandings that students bring to the study of climate change. They also demonstrate that it is possible to make significant shifts in students' understandings of climate change science, even in students who were initially resistant to the idea of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, multiple case studies discuss ways that the learning that occurred in the classroom crossed out of the classroom into the students' homes and family talk. This work highlights how learners' pathways are shaped not only by their developing understanding of the scientific evidence but also by the political and social influences that learners navigate across the contexts of their lives. It underscores the need to understand and support students as they interact with climate change across the contexts of their lives.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Monaco, Eugenia; Alfieri, Silvia Maria; Basile, Angelo; Menenti, Massimo; Bonfante, Antonello; De Lorenzi, Fracesca
2014-05-01
Climate evolution may lead to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitations and to reduced water availability, with constraints on the cultivation of some crops. Recently, foreseen crop responses to climate change raise a crucial question for the agricultural stakeholders: are the current production systems resilient to this change? An active debate is in progress about the definition of adaptation of agricultural systems, particularly about the integrated assessment of climate stressors, vulnerability and resilece towards the evaluation of climate impact on agricultural systems. Climate change represents a risk for rain-fed agricultural systems, where irrigations cannot compensate reductions in precipitations. The intra-specific biodiversity of crops can be a resource towards adaptation. The knowledge of the responses to environmental conditions (temperature and water availability) of different cultivars can allow to identify options for adaptation to future climate. Simulation models of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system, driven by different climate scenarios, can describe present and foreseen soil water regime. The present work deals with a case-study on the adaptive capacity of durum wheat to climate change. The selected study area is a hilly region in Southern Italy (Fortore Beneventano, Campania Region). Two climate cases were studied: "reference" (1961-1990) and "future" (2021-2050). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was run to determine the water regime in some soil units, representative of the soil variability in the study area. From model output, the Relative Evapotranspiration Deficit (RETD) was determined as an indicator of hydrological conditions during the crop growing period for each year and climate case; and periods with higher frequencies of soil water deficits were identified. The timing of main crop development stages was calculated. The occurrence of water deficit at different development stages was thus assessed. Moreover, the yield response functions to water availability of several durum wheat cultivars were determined; cultivars' hydrologic requirements were thus defined and compared with the simulated values of RETD. The latter was evaluated against requirements for each soil unit, cultivar and year in both climate cases to assess adaptability. In the future climate scenario a significant reduction (about 80 mm) of rainfall is foreseen. The analyses of inter- and intra-annual courses of the indicator (RETD) showed higher RETD in one soil unit, which resulted less suitable for durum wheat cultivation. According to the soils' water regime and to the cultivar-specific yield responses, the adaptability of durum wheat cultivars was assessed. The difference between the two climate cases was significant; the adaptability of the cultivars was strongly influenced by the different rainfall regime and by the soil physical properties, which strongly affected the soil water balance. The case study showed how in the future climate case, for rainfed durum wheat, the intra-specific variability will allow to maintain the current crop production system. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Chang, Chew-Hung; Pascua, Liberty
2015-01-01
This study identified secondary school students' alternative conceptions (ACs) of climate change and their resistance to instruction. Using a case-based approach, a diagnostic test was administered to Secondary 3 male students in a pre-test and post-test. The ACs identified in the pre-test were on the causes of climate change, the natural…
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One hundred years: A collective case study of climate change education in Georgia
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bloch, Leonard Mark
This collective case study examined how five K-12 science teachers taught about climate change during Fall 2013, and asked how the University of Georgia can support climate change education. The participants were all experienced teachers, and included: three high school teachers, a middle school teacher, and an elementary school teacher. 'Postcarbonism', an emerging theoretical framework, shaped the research and guided the analysis. The teachers varied in their teaching practices and in their conceptions of 'climate change', but they were united in: 1) their focus on mitigation over adaptation, and 2) presenting climate change as a remote problem with simple solutions. The teachers drew on varied resources, but in all cases, their most valuable resources were their own skills, knowledge and personality. The University of Georgia can support climate change education by developing locally relevant educational resources. Curriculum developers might consider building upon the work of outstanding teach.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goodess, Clare; Ruti, Paolo; Rousset, Nathalie
2014-05-01
During the closing stages of the CLIM-RUN EU FP7 project on Climate Local Information in the Mediterranean region Responding to User Needs, the real-world experiences encountered by the case-study teams are being assessed and synthesised to identify examples of good practice and, in particular, to produce the CLIM-RUN protocol for the development of Mediterranean climate services. The specific case studies have focused on renewable energy (Morocco, Spain, Croatia, Cyprus), tourism (Savoie, Tunisia, Croatia, Cyprus) and wild fires (Greece) as well as one cross-cutting case study (Veneto region). They have been implemented following a common programme of local workshops, questionnaires and interviews, with Climate Expert Team and Stakeholder Expert Team members collaborating to identify and translate user needs and subsequently develop climate products and information. Feedback from stakeholders has been essential in assessing and refining these products. The protocol covers the following issues: the overall process and methodological key stages; identification and selection of stakeholders; communication with stakeholders; identification of user needs; translation of needs; producing products; assessing and refining products; methodologies for evaluating the economic value of climate services; and beyond CLIM-RUN - the lessons learnt. Particular emphasis is given to stakeholder analysis in the context of the participatory, bottom-up approach promoted by CLIM-RUN and to the iterative approach taken in the development of climate products. Recommendations are also made for an envisioned three-tier business model for the development of climate services involving climate, intermediary and stakeholder tiers.
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Changing Family Habits: A Case Study into Climate Change Mitigation Behavior in Families
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Leger, Michel T.; Pruneau, Diane
2012-01-01
A case-study methodology was used to explore the process of change as experienced by 3 suburban families in an attempt to incorporate climate change mitigation behavior into their day to day life. Cross-case analysis of the findings revealed the emergence of three major conceptual themes associated with behavior adoption: collectively applied…
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Research on Climate and Dengue in Malaysia: A Systematic Review.
Hii, Yien Ling; Zaki, Rafdzah Ahmad; Aghamohammadi, Nasrin; Rocklöv, Joacim
2016-03-01
Dengue is a climate-sensitive infectious disease. Climate-based dengue early warning may be a simple, low-cost, and effective tool for enhancing surveillance and control. Scientific studies on climate and dengue in local context form the basis for advancing the development of a climate-based early warning system. This study aims to review the current status of scientific studies in climate and dengue and the prospect or challenges of such research on a climate-based dengue early warning system in a dengue-endemic country, taking Malaysia as a case study. We reviewed the relationship between climate and dengue derived from statistical modeling, laboratory tests, and field studies. We searched electronic databases including PubMed, Scopus, EBSCO (MEDLINE), Web of Science, and the World Health Organization publications, and assessed climate factors and their influence on dengue cases, mosquitoes, and virus and recent development in the field of climate and dengue. Few studies in Malaysia have emphasized the relationship between climate and dengue. Climatic factors such as temperature, rainfall, and humidity are associated with dengue; however, these relationships were not consistent. Climate change projections for Malaysia show a mounting risk for dengue in the future. Scientific studies on climate and dengue enhance dengue surveillance in the long run. It is essential for institutions in Malaysia to promote research on climate and vector-borne diseases to advance the development of climate-based early warning systems. Together, effective strategies that improve existing research capacity, maximize the use of limited resources, and promote local-international partnership are crucial for sustaining research on climate and health.
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Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke
2012-01-01
Forest ecosystems have the ability to reduce the effects of climate change through the sequestration of carbon (C) (Pan et al. 2011) as well as contribute to net emissions through disturbance events such as wildfires and widespread tree mortality (Kurz et al. 2008). A conceptual framework for assessing climate-change risks to forest ecosystem C stocks facilitates...
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An observational and modeling study of the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Konduru, R.; Singh, V.; Routray, A.
2017-12-01
A special report on the climate extremes by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) elucidates that the sole cause of disasters is due to the exposure and vulnerability of the human and natural system to the climate extremes. The cause of such a climate extreme could be anthropogenic or non-anthropogenic. Therefore, it is challenging to discern the critical factor of influence for a particular climate extreme. Such kind of perceptive study with reasonable confidence on climate extreme events is possible only if there exist any past case studies. A similar rarest climate extreme problem encountered in the case of Houston floods and extreme rainfall over Florida in August 2017. A continuum of hurricanes like Harvey and Irma targeted the Florida region and caused catastrophe. Due to the rarity of August 2017 Florida climate extreme event, it requires the in-depth study on this case. To understand the multi-faceted nature of the event, a study on the development of the Harvey hurricane and its progression and dynamics is significant. Current article focus on the observational and modeling study on the Harvey hurricane. A global model named as NCUM (The global UK Met office Unified Model (UM) operational at National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, India, was utilized to simulate the Harvey hurricane. The simulated rainfall and wind fields were compared with the observational datasets like Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission rainfall datasets and Era-Interim wind fields. The National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) automated tracking system was utilized to track the Harvey hurricane, and the tracks were analyzed statistically for different forecasts concerning the Harvey hurricane track of Joint Typhon Warning Centre. Further, the current study will be continued to investigate the atmospheric processes involved in the August 2017 Florida climate extreme event.
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EPA announced the release of the final report, BASINs and WEPP Climate Assessment Tools (CAT): Case Study Guide to Potential Applications. This report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the Better Assessment Science Integrating point & ...
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Civic Engagement about Climate Change: A Case Study of Three Educators and Their Practice
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Chandler, Thomas; Marri, Anand R.
2012-01-01
This collective case study examined how three educators (a high school social studies teacher, a university social studies teacher educator, and minister teaching an adult population) used a multimedia based curriculum guide, "Teaching the Levees", to teach about climate change to examine public priorities in relation to the environment.…
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Köberl, Judith; Prettenthaler, Franz; Bird, David Neil
2016-02-01
Tourism represents an important source of income and employment in many Mediterranean regions, including the island of Sardinia (Italy) and the Cap Bon peninsula (Tunisia). Climate change may however impact tourism in both regions, for example, by altering the regions' climatic suitability for common tourism types or affecting water availability. This paper assesses the potential impacts of climate change on tourism in the case study regions of Sardinia and Cap Bon. Direct impacts are studied in a quantitative way by applying a range of climate scenario data on the empirically estimated relationship between climatic conditions and tourism demand, using two different approaches. Results indicate a potential for climate-induced tourism revenue gains especially in the shoulder seasons during spring and autumn, but also a threat of climate-induced revenue losses in the summer months due to increased heat stress. Annual direct net impacts are nevertheless suggested to be (slightly) positive in both case study regions. Significant climate-induced reductions in total available water may however somewhat counteract the positive direct impacts of climate change by putting additional water costs on the tourism industry. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Development, malaria and adaptation to climate change: a case study from India.
Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R C; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P R
2009-05-01
India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.
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Development, Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R. C.; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P. R.
2009-05-01
India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.
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Case Studies of Water Utility Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment [External Review Draft Report
This report presents a series of case studies describing the approaches taken by four water utilities in the United States to assess their vulnerability to climate change. The report is not intended to be a comprehensive listing of assessment approaches or utilities conducting v...
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This draft report supports application of two recently developed water modeling tools, the BASINS and WEPP climate assessment tools. The report presents a series of short case studies designed to illustrate the capabilities of these tools for conducting scenario based assessments...
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The effect of vaccination coverage and climate on Japanese encephalitis in Sarawak, Malaysia.
Impoinvil, Daniel E; Ooi, Mong How; Diggle, Peter J; Caminade, Cyril; Cardosa, Mary Jane; Morse, Andrew P; Baylis, Matthew; Solomon, Tom
2013-01-01
Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalitis across Asia with approximately 70,000 cases a year and 10,000 to 15,000 deaths. Because JE incidence varies widely over time, partly due to inter-annual climate variability effects on mosquito vector abundance, it becomes more complex to assess the effects of a vaccination programme since more or less climatically favourable years could also contribute to a change in incidence post-vaccination. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify vaccination effect on confirmed Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases in Sarawak, Malaysia after controlling for climate variability to better understand temporal dynamics of JE virus transmission and control. Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases. This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored.
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David Hui; Karen Shum; Ji Chen; Shyh-Chin Chen; Jack Ritchie; John Roads
2007-01-01
Seasonal climate forecasts are one of the most promising tools for providing early warnings for natural hazards such as floods and droughts. Using two case studies, this paper documents the skill of a regional climate model in the seasonal forecasting of below normal rainfall in southern China during the rainy seasons of JulyâAugustâSeptember 2003 and Aprilâ...
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Feierabend, Timo; Jokmin, Sebastian; Eilks, Ingo
2011-01-01
This paper presents a case study from research-oriented learning in chemistry teacher education. The study evaluates the views of twenty experienced German chemistry teachers about the teaching of climate change in chemistry education. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews about the teachers' experiences and their views about…
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Adeola, Abiodun M; Botai, Joel O; Rautenbach, Hannes; Adisa, Omolola M; Ncongwane, Katlego P; Botai, Christina M; Adebayo-Ojo, Temitope C
2017-11-08
The north-eastern parts of South Africa, comprising the Limpopo Province, have recorded a sudden rise in the rate of malaria morbidity and mortality in the 2017 malaria season. The epidemiological profiles of malaria, as well as other vector-borne diseases, are strongly associated with climate and environmental conditions. A retrospective understanding of the relationship between climate and the occurrence of malaria may provide insight into the dynamics of the disease's transmission and its persistence in the north-eastern region. In this paper, the association between climatic variables and the occurrence of malaria was studied in the Mutale local municipality in South Africa over a period of 19-year. Time series analysis was conducted on monthly climatic variables and monthly malaria cases in the Mutale municipality for the period of 1998-2017. Spearman correlation analysis was performed and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed. Microsoft Excel was used for data cleaning, and statistical software R was used to analyse the data and develop the model. Results show that both climatic variables' and malaria cases' time series exhibited seasonal patterns, showing a number of peaks and fluctuations. Spearman correlation analysis indicated that monthly total rainfall, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean average temperature, and mean relative humidity were significantly and positively correlated with monthly malaria cases in the study area. Regression analysis showed that monthly total rainfall and monthly mean minimum temperature ( R ² = 0.65), at a two-month lagged effect, are the most significant climatic predictors of malaria transmission in Mutale local municipality. A SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model fitted with only malaria cases has a prediction performance of about 51%, and the SARIMAX (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model with climatic variables as exogenous factors has a prediction performance of about 72% in malaria cases. The model gives a close comparison between the predicted and observed number of malaria cases, hence indicating that the model provides an acceptable fit to predict the number of malaria cases in the municipality. To sum up, the association between the climatic variables and malaria cases provides clues to better understand the dynamics of malaria transmission. The lagged effect detected in this study can help in adequate planning for malaria intervention.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, Ying; Bi, Peng; Hiller, Janet
2008-01-01
This is the first study to identify appropriate regression models for the association between climate variation and salmonellosis transmission. A comparison between different regression models was conducted using surveillance data in Adelaide, South Australia. By using notified salmonellosis cases and climatic variables from the Adelaide metropolitan area over the period 1990-2003, four regression methods were examined: standard Poisson regression, autoregressive adjusted Poisson regression, multiple linear regression, and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. Notified salmonellosis cases in 2004 were used to test the forecasting ability of the four models. Parameter estimation, goodness-of-fit and forecasting ability of the four regression models were compared. Temperatures occurring 2 weeks prior to cases were positively associated with cases of salmonellosis. Rainfall was also inversely related to the number of cases. The comparison of the goodness-of-fit and forecasting ability suggest that the SARIMA model is better than the other three regression models. Temperature and rainfall may be used as climatic predictors of salmonellosis cases in regions with climatic characteristics similar to those of Adelaide. The SARIMA model could, thus, be adopted to quantify the relationship between climate variations and salmonellosis transmission.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G.; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P.; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Guerra Hernández, Juan; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João HN; Paulo, Joana A.; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Hanewinkel, Marc
2017-03-01
Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.
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Reyer, Christopher P O; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Hernández, Juan Guerra; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João HN; Paulo, Joana A; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Hanewinkel, Marc
2017-01-01
Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures. PMID:28855959
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Reyer, Christopher P O; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Hernández, Juan Guerra; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João Hn; Paulo, Joana A; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Hanewinkel, Marc
2017-03-16
Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.
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Sampling bias in climate-conflict research
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adams, Courtland; Ide, Tobias; Barnett, Jon; Detges, Adrien
2018-03-01
Critics have argued that the evidence of an association between climate change and conflict is flawed because the research relies on a dependent variable sampling strategy1-4. Similarly, it has been hypothesized that convenience of access biases the sample of cases studied (the `streetlight effect'5). This also gives rise to claims that the climate-conflict literature stigmatizes some places as being more `naturally' violent6-8. Yet there has been no proof of such sampling patterns. Here we test whether climate-conflict research is based on such a biased sample through a systematic review of the literature. We demonstrate that research on climate change and violent conflict suffers from a streetlight effect. Further, studies which focus on a small number of cases in particular are strongly informed by cases where there has been conflict, do not sample on the independent variables (climate impact or risk), and hence tend to find some association between these two variables. These biases mean that research on climate change and conflict primarily focuses on a few accessible regions, overstates the links between both phenomena and cannot explain peaceful outcomes from climate change. This could result in maladaptive responses in those places that are stigmatized as being inherently more prone to climate-induced violence.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Drewes, Andrea; Henderson, Joseph; Mouza, Chrystalla
2018-01-01
Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing society, and climate change educational models are emerging in response. This study investigates the implementation and enactment of a climate change professional development (PD) model for science educators and its impact on student learning. Using an intrinsic case study methodology,…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Trenbath, Thien-Kim Leckie
2012-01-01
This dissertation shows the evolution of five undergraduate students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change throughout a lecture hall course on climate change. This research was informed by conceptual change theory and students' inaccurate ideas of climate change. Subjects represented different levels of climate change understanding at…
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Potential impacts of climate variability on dengue hemorrhagic fever in Honduras, 2010.
Zambrano, L I; Sevilla, C; Reyes-García, S Z; Sierra, M; Kafati, R; Rodriguez-Morales, A J; Mattar, S
2012-12-01
Climate change and variability are affecting human health and disease direct or indirectly through many mechanisms. Dengue is one of those diseases that is strongly influenced by climate variability; however its study in Central America has been poorly approached. In this study, we assessed potential associations between macroclimatic and microclimatic variation and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases in the main hospital of Honduras during 2010. In this year, 3,353 cases of DHF were reported in the Hospital Escuela, Tegucigalpa. Climatic periods marked a difference of 158% in the mean incidence of cases, from El Niño weeks (-99% of cases below the mean incidence) to La Niña months (+59% of cases above it) (p<0.01). Linear regression showed significantly higher dengue incidence with lower values of Oceanic Niño Index (p=0.0097), higher rain probability (p=0.0149), accumulated rain (p=0.0443) and higher relative humidity (p=0.0292). At a multiple linear regression model using those variables, ONI values shown to be the most important and significant factor found to be associated with the monthly occurrence of DHF cases (r²=0.649; βstandardized=-0.836; p=0.01). As has been shown herein, climate variability is an important element influencing the dengue epidemiology in Honduras. However, it is necessary to extend these studies in this and other countries in the Central America region, because these models can be applied for surveillance as well as for prediction of dengue.
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Botai, Joel O.; Rautenbach, Hannes; Ncongwane, Katlego P.; Botai, Christina M.
2017-01-01
The north-eastern parts of South Africa, comprising the Limpopo Province, have recorded a sudden rise in the rate of malaria morbidity and mortality in the 2017 malaria season. The epidemiological profiles of malaria, as well as other vector-borne diseases, are strongly associated with climate and environmental conditions. A retrospective understanding of the relationship between climate and the occurrence of malaria may provide insight into the dynamics of the disease’s transmission and its persistence in the north-eastern region. In this paper, the association between climatic variables and the occurrence of malaria was studied in the Mutale local municipality in South Africa over a period of 19-year. Time series analysis was conducted on monthly climatic variables and monthly malaria cases in the Mutale municipality for the period of 1998–2017. Spearman correlation analysis was performed and the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was developed. Microsoft Excel was used for data cleaning, and statistical software R was used to analyse the data and develop the model. Results show that both climatic variables’ and malaria cases’ time series exhibited seasonal patterns, showing a number of peaks and fluctuations. Spearman correlation analysis indicated that monthly total rainfall, mean minimum temperature, mean maximum temperature, mean average temperature, and mean relative humidity were significantly and positively correlated with monthly malaria cases in the study area. Regression analysis showed that monthly total rainfall and monthly mean minimum temperature (R2 = 0.65), at a two-month lagged effect, are the most significant climatic predictors of malaria transmission in Mutale local municipality. A SARIMA (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model fitted with only malaria cases has a prediction performance of about 51%, and the SARIMAX (2,1,2) (1,1,1) model with climatic variables as exogenous factors has a prediction performance of about 72% in malaria cases. The model gives a close comparison between the predicted and observed number of malaria cases, hence indicating that the model provides an acceptable fit to predict the number of malaria cases in the municipality. To sum up, the association between the climatic variables and malaria cases provides clues to better understand the dynamics of malaria transmission. The lagged effect detected in this study can help in adequate planning for malaria intervention. PMID:29117114
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Case Study 3: Species vulnerability assessment for the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico
Deborah M. Finch; Megan Friggens; Karen Bagne
2011-01-01
This case study describes a method for scoring terrestrial species that have potential to be vulnerable to climate change. The assessment tool seeks to synthesize complex information related to projected climate changes into a predictive tool for species conservation. The tool was designed to aid managers in prioritizing species management actions in response to...
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Climate change and biofuel wheat: A case study of Southern Saskatchewan
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
This study assessed potential impacts of climate change on wheat production as a biofuel crop in southern Saskatchewan, Canada. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer-Cropping System Model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate biomass and grain yield under three climate change scenarios ...
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Effect of climatic variability on malaria trends in Baringo County, Kenya.
Kipruto, Edwin K; Ochieng, Alfred O; Anyona, Douglas N; Mbalanya, Macrae; Mutua, Edna N; Onguru, Daniel; Nyamongo, Isaac K; Estambale, Benson B A
2017-05-25
Malaria transmission in arid and semi-arid regions of Kenya such as Baringo County, is seasonal and often influenced by climatic factors. Unravelling the relationship between climate variables and malaria transmission dynamics is therefore instrumental in developing effective malaria control strategies. The main aim of this study was to describe the effects of variability of rainfall, maximum temperature and vegetation indices on seasonal trends of malaria in selected health facilities within Baringo County, Kenya. Climate variables sourced from the International Research Institute (IRI)/Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO) climate database and malaria cases reported in 10 health facilities spread across four ecological zones (riverine, lowland, mid-altitude and highland) between 2004 and 2014 were subjected to a time series analysis. A negative binomial regression model with lagged climate variables was used to model long-term monthly malaria cases. The seasonal Mann-Kendall trend test was then used to detect overall monotonic trends in malaria cases. Malaria cases increased significantly in the highland and midland zones over the study period. Changes in malaria prevalence corresponded to variations in rainfall and maximum temperature. Rainfall at a time lag of 2 months resulted in an increase in malaria transmission across the four zones while an increase in temperature at time lags of 0 and 1 month resulted in an increase in malaria cases in the riverine and highland zones, respectively. Given the existence of a time lag between climatic variables more so rainfall and peak malaria transmission, appropriate control measures can be initiated at the onset of short and after long rains seasons.
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2011-12-01
Climate change is already beginning to affect New York State, and these impacts are projected to grow. At the same time, the state has the ability to develop adaptation strategies to prepare for and respond to climate risks now and in the future. The ClimAID assessment provides information on climate change impacts and adaptation for eight sectors in New York State: water resources, coastal zones, ecosystems, agriculture, energy, transportation,telecommunications, and public health. Observed climate trends and future climate projections were developed for seven regions across the state. Within each of the sectors, climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies are identified. Integrating themes across all of the sectors are equity and environmental justice and economics.Case studies are used to examine specific vulnerabilities and potential adaptation strategies in each of the eight sectors. These case studies also illustrate the linkages among climate vulnerabilities, risks, and adaptation, and demonstrate specific monitoring needs. Stakeholder participation was critical to the ClimAID assessment process to ensure relevance to decision makers across the state.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chen, Jie; Brissette, François P.; Lucas-Picher, Philippe
2016-11-01
Given the ever increasing number of climate change simulations being carried out, it has become impractical to use all of them to cover the uncertainty of climate change impacts. Various methods have been proposed to optimally select subsets of a large ensemble of climate simulations for impact studies. However, the behaviour of optimally-selected subsets of climate simulations for climate change impacts is unknown, since the transfer process from climate projections to the impact study world is usually highly non-linear. Consequently, this study investigates the transferability of optimally-selected subsets of climate simulations in the case of hydrological impacts. Two different methods were used for the optimal selection of subsets of climate scenarios, and both were found to be capable of adequately representing the spread of selected climate model variables contained in the original large ensemble. However, in both cases, the optimal subsets had limited transferability to hydrological impacts. To capture a similar variability in the impact model world, many more simulations have to be used than those that are needed to simply cover variability from the climate model variables' perspective. Overall, both optimal subset selection methods were better than random selection when small subsets were selected from a large ensemble for impact studies. However, as the number of selected simulations increased, random selection often performed better than the two optimal methods. To ensure adequate uncertainty coverage, the results of this study imply that selecting as many climate change simulations as possible is the best avenue. Where this was not possible, the two optimal methods were found to perform adequately.
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Mapping Climate Change: Six U.S. Case Studies
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Holmberg, Marjorie O.
2010-01-01
This research focuses on the current role of mapping practices in communicating climate change in the United States. This includes maps used in monitoring climate change, projecting its potential impacts, and identifying potential adaptation strategies at particular scales. Since few, if any, studies have been done specifically on mapping…
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de Almeida, Sergio Monteiro; Salvador, Gabriel L O; Roza, Thiago Henrique; Izycki, Luís Felipe; Dos Santos, Isaias; Aragão, Afonso; Kulik, Amanda; Muro, Marisol; Torres, Luis Fernando Bleggi; de Noronha, Lucia Helena
2018-04-17
Paracoccidioidomycosis (PCM) is the most prevalent systemic mycosis among immunocompetent patients in Latin America. This study aimed to describe the expansion over time and the geographical distribution of confirmed Neuroparacoccidioidomycosis (NPCM) and PCM cases, and relate it to environmental characteristics such as climate, soil types, and coffee crops. This was a retrospective study of autopsy and biopsy reports between 1951 and 2014 from the Medical Pathology Section of the Hospital de Clinicas, UFPR, Curitiba, Southern Brazil. PCM was predominant in male agricultural workers. PCM cases predominated in areas with subtropical climate with hot summers in North West Parana state. NPCM cases were distributed statewide more frequent in rural than metropolitan area. There was no association with climate, soil type, or coffee crop culture. Most of the PCM cases were in the metropolitan area of the capital, chiefly due to migration fluxes. Even though the history is predominantly agricultural activities. PCM cases were distributed mainly in the metropolitan area of the state capital, there was no association with climate and soil. NPCM cases were numerically more frequent in rural than metropolitan area. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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The Effect of Vaccination Coverage and Climate on Japanese Encephalitis in Sarawak, Malaysia
Impoinvil, Daniel E.; Ooi, Mong How; Diggle, Peter J.; Caminade, Cyril; Cardosa, Mary Jane; Morse, Andrew P.
2013-01-01
Background Japanese encephalitis (JE) is the leading cause of viral encephalitis across Asia with approximately 70,000 cases a year and 10,000 to 15,000 deaths. Because JE incidence varies widely over time, partly due to inter-annual climate variability effects on mosquito vector abundance, it becomes more complex to assess the effects of a vaccination programme since more or less climatically favourable years could also contribute to a change in incidence post-vaccination. Therefore, the objective of this study was to quantify vaccination effect on confirmed Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases in Sarawak, Malaysia after controlling for climate variability to better understand temporal dynamics of JE virus transmission and control. Methodology/principal findings Monthly data on serologically confirmed JE cases were acquired from Sibu Hospital in Sarawak from 1997 to 2006. JE vaccine coverage (non-vaccine years vs. vaccine years) and meteorological predictor variables, including temperature, rainfall and the Southern Oscillation index (SOI) were tested for their association with JE cases using Poisson time series analysis and controlling for seasonality and long-term trend. Over the 10-years surveillance period, 133 confirmed JE cases were identified. There was an estimated 61% reduction in JE risk after the introduction of vaccination, when no account is taken of the effects of climate. This reduction is only approximately 45% when the effects of inter-annual variability in climate are controlled for in the model. The Poisson model indicated that rainfall (lag 1-month), minimum temperature (lag 6-months) and SOI (lag 6-months) were positively associated with JE cases. Conclusions/significance This study provides the first improved estimate of JE reduction through vaccination by taking account of climate inter-annual variability. Our analysis confirms that vaccination has substantially reduced JE risk in Sarawak but this benefit may be overestimated if climate effects are ignored. PMID:23951373
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Modelling the influence of climate on malaria occurrence in Chimoio Municipality, Mozambique.
Ferrão, João Luís; Mendes, Jorge M; Painho, Marco
2017-05-25
Mozambique was recently ranked fifth in the African continent for the number of cases of malaria. In Chimoio municipality cases of malaria are increasing annually, contrary to the decreasing trend in Africa. As malaria transmission is influenced to a large extent by climatic conditions, modelling this relationship can provide useful insights for designing precision health measures for malaria control. There is a scarcity of information on the association between climatic variability and malaria transmission risk in Mozambique in general, and in Chimoio in particular. Therefore, the aim of this study is to model the association between climatic variables and malaria cases on a weekly basis, to help policy makers find adequate measures for malaria control and eradication. Time series analysis was conducted using data on weekly climatic variables and weekly malaria cases (counts) in Chimoio municipality, from 2006 to 2014. All data were analysed using SPSS-20, R 3.3.2 and BioEstat 5.0. Cross-correlation analysis, linear processes, namely ARIMA models and regression modelling, were used to develop the final model. Between 2006 and 2014, 490,561 cases of malaria were recorded in Chimoio. Both malaria and climatic data exhibit weekly and yearly systematic fluctuations. Cross-correlation analysis showed that mean temperature and precipitation present significantly lagged correlations with malaria cases. An ARIMA model (2,1,0) (2,1,1) 52 , and a regression model for a Box-Cox transformed number of malaria cases with lags 1, 2 and 3 of weekly malaria cases and lags 6 and 7 of weekly mean temperature and lags 12 of precipitation were fitted. Although, both produced similar widths for prediction intervals, the last was able to anticipate malaria outbreak more accurately. The Chimoio climate seems ideal for malaria occurrence. Malaria occurrence peaks during January to March in Chimoio. As the lag effect between climatic events and malaria occurrence is important for the prediction of malaria cases, this can be used for designing public precision health measures. The model can be used for planning specific measures for Chimoio municipality. Prospective and multidisciplinary research involving researchers from different fields is welcomed to improve the effect of climatic factors and other factors in malaria cases.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Skaggs, Richard; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Frumhoff, Peter
2012-03-01
This report provides a framework to characterize and understand the important elements of climate and energy-water-land (EWL) system interactions. It identifies many of the important issues, discusses our understanding of those issues, and presents a long-term research program research needs to address the priority scientific challenges and gaps in our understanding. Much of the discussion is organized around two discrete case studies with the broad themes of (1) extreme events and (2) regional intercomparisons. These case studies help demonstrate unique ways in which energy-water-land interactions can occur and be influenced by climate.
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Reservoirs performances under climate variability: a case study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Longobardi, A.; Mautone, M.; de Luca, C.
2014-09-01
A case study, the Piano della Rocca dam (southern Italy) is discussed here in order to quantify the system performances under climate variability conditions. Different climate scenarios have been stochastically generated according to the tendencies in precipitation and air temperature observed during recent decades for the studied area. Climate variables have then been filtered through an ARMA model to generate, at the monthly scale, time series of reservoir inflow volumes. Controlled release has been computed considering the reservoir is operated following the standard linear operating policy (SLOP) and reservoir performances have been assessed through the calculation of reliability, resilience and vulnerability indices (Hashimoto et al. 1982), comparing current and future scenarios of climate variability. The proposed approach can be suggested as a valuable tool to mitigate the effects of moderate to severe and persistent droughts periods, through the allocation of new water resources or the planning of appropriate operational rules.
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A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric; Auer, Ingeborg; Azorin-Molina, Cesar; Brandsma, Theo; Brunetti, Michele; Dienst, Manuel; Domonkos, Peter; Gilabert, Alba; Lindén, Jenny; Milewska, Ewa; Nordli, Øyvind; Prohom, Marc; Rennie, Jared; Stepanek, Petr; Trewin, Blair; Vincent, Lucie; Willett, Kate; Wolff, Mareile
2016-04-01
In this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, in the framework of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long-term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., (i) station relocations, (ii) instrument height changes, (iii) instrumentation changes, (iv) observing environment changes, (v) different sampling intervals or data collection procedures, among others. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of long-term trends and variability of climate. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location, different radiation shields, etc.). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of air temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important potentially biasing transitions are the adoption of Stevenson screens, relocations (to airports) efforts to reduce undercatchment of precipitation or the move to automatic weather stations. Thus a large global parallel dataset is highly desirable as it allows for the study of systematic biases in the global record. We are interested in data from all climate variables at all time scales; from annual to sub-daily. High-resolution data is important for understanding the physical causes for the differences between the parallel measurements. For the same reason, we are also interested in other climate variables measured at the same station. For example, in case of parallel air temperature measurements, the influencing factors are expected to be global radiation, wind, humidity and cloud cover; in case of parallel precipitation measurements, wind and wet-bulb temperature are potentially important. Metadata that describe the parallel measurements is as important as the data itself and will be collected as well. For example, the types of the instruments, their siting, height, maintenance, etc. Because they are widely used to study moderate extremes, we will compute the indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In case the daily data cannot be shared, we would appreciate contributions containing these indices from parallel measurements. For more information: http://tinyurl.com/ISTI-Parallel
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The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ayers, Jessica M.; Huq, Saleemul
2009-05-01
There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Giannakopoulos, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K.
2010-09-01
Analysing climate change and its impact needs a production of relevant elements for policy making that can be very different from the parameters considered by climate experts. In the framework of EU project CIRCE, a more realistic approach to match stakeholders and policy-makers demands is attempted. For this reason, within CIRCE selected case studies have been chosen that will provide assessments that can be integrated in practical decision making. In this work, an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on several sectors for the urban site of Athens in Greece is presented. The Athens urban case study has been chosen since it provides excellent opportunities for using an integrated approach across multiple temporal and spatial scales and sectors. In the spatial dimension, work extends from the inner city boundaries to the surrounding mountains and forests. In the temporal dimension, research ranges from the current observed time period (using available meteorological and sector data) to future time periods using data from several climate change projections. In addition, a multi-sector approach to climate change impacts is adopted. Impacts sectors covered range from direct climate impacts on natural ecosystems (such as flash floods, air pollution and forest fire risk) to indirect impacts resulting from combined climate-social-economic linkages (such as energy demand, tourism and health). Discussion of impact sector risks and adaptation measures are also exploited. Case-study work on impact sector risk to climate change is of particular interest to relevant policy makers and stakeholders, communication with who is ensured through a series of briefing notes and information sheets and through regional workshops.
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The value of linking mitigation and adaptation: a case study of Bangladesh.
Ayers, Jessica M; Huq, Saleemul
2009-05-01
There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Valentina, Gallina; Torresan, Silvia; Giannini, Valentina; Rizzi, Jonathan; Zabeo, Alex; Gualdi, Silvio; Bellucci, Alessio; Giorgi, Filippo; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio
2013-04-01
At the international level, the interest for climate services is rising due to the social and economic benefits that different stakeholders can achieve to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), the case study of the North Adriatic Sea is aimed at analysing the need of climate information and the effectiveness of climate services for the integrated assessment of climate change impacts in coastal zones of the North Adriatic Sea at the regional to local scale. A participative approach was developed and applied to identify relevant stakeholders which have a mandate for coastal zone management and to interact with them in order to elicit their climate information needs. Specifically, the participative approach was carried out by means of two local workshops and trough the administration of a questionnaire related to climate information and services. The results of the process allowed identifying three major themes of interest for local stakeholders (i.e. hydro-climatic regime, coastal and marine environment, agriculture) and their preferences concerning key climate variables (e.g. extreme events, sea-level, wave height), mid-term temporal projections (i.e. for the next 30-40 years) and medium-high spatial resolution (i.e. from 1 to 50 km). Furthermore, the workshops highlighted stakeholder concern about several climate-related impacts (e.g. sea-level rise, storm surge, droughts) and vulnerable receptors (e.g. beaches, wetlands, agricultural areas) to be considered in vulnerability and risk assessment studies for the North Adriatic coastal zones. This information was used by climate and environmental risk experts in order to develop targeted climate information and services (e.g. climate projections and maps) for coastal stakeholders. The final results include climate products developed by climate experts through the analysis of climate observations and scenarios (e.g. standard indices of extreme precipitations and droughts, consecutive days of heavy rain, mean sea level pressure) and risk-based maps supplied by environmental risk experts to facilitate the definition of adaptation strategies (e.g. sea-level rise/storm surge risk maps with the surface of receptor lost; drought risk maps with the percentage of suffering agricultural areas). The preliminary climate products and the results of North Adriatic case study will be here presented and discussed.
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Joshi, Yadav Prasad; Kim, Eun-Hye; Cheong, Hae-Kwan
2017-06-07
Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and leptospirosis are seasonal rodent-borne infections in the Republic of Korea (Korea). The occurrences of HFRS and leptospirosis are influenced by climatic variability. However, few studies have examined the effects of local climatic variables on the development of these infections. The purpose of this study was to estimate the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of HFRS and leptospirosis in Korea. Daily records on human cases of HFRS and leptospirosis between January 2001 to December 2009 were analyzed. The associations of climatic factors with these cases in high incidence provinces were estimated using the time-series method and multivariate generalized linear Poisson models with a maximal lag of 12 weeks. From 2001 to 2009, a total of 2912 HFRS and 889 leptospirosis cases were reported, with overall incidences of 0.67 and 0.21 cases per 100,000, respectively, in the study areas. The increase in minimum temperature (1 °C) at a lag of 11 weeks was associated with 17.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 15.1, 20.6%] and 22.7% (95% CI: 16.5, 29.3%) increases in HFRS and leptospirosis cases, respectively. A 1-h increase in the daily sunshine was related to a 27.5% (95% CI: 18.2, 37.6%) increase in HFRS at a lag of 0 week. A 1% increase in daily minimum relative humidity and a 1 mm increase in daily rainfall were associated with 4.0% (95% CI:1.8, 6.1) and 2.0% (95% CI: 1.2, 2.8%) increases in weekly leptospirosis cases at 11 and 6 weeks later, respectively. A 1 mJ/m 2 increase in daily solar radiation was associated with a 13.7% (95% CI: 4.9, 23.2%) increase in leptospirosis cases, maximized at a 2-week lag. During the peak season in Korea, climatic factors play a significant role in the development of HFRS and leptospirosis. The findings of this study may be applicable to the forecasting and prediction of disease outbreaks.
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Ansari, Hossein; Shahbaz, Babak; Izadi, Shahrokh; Zeinali, Mohammad; Tabatabaee, Seyyed Mehdi; Mahmoodi, Mahmood; Holakouie Naieni, Kourosh; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali
2014-06-11
Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is endemic in southeast Iran. In this study we present the epidemiological features of CCHF and its relationship with climate factors in over a 13-year span. Surveillance system data of CCHF from 2000 to 2012 were obtained from the Province Health Centre of Zahedan University of Medical Sciences in southeast Iran. The climate data were obtained from the climate organization. The seasonal auto-regression integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for time series analysis to produce a model as applicable as possible in predicting the variations in the occurrence of the disease. Between 2000 and 2012, 647 confirmed CCHF cases were reported from Sistan-va-Baluchistan province. The total case fatality rate was about 10.0%. Climate variables including mean temperature (°C), accumulated rainfall (mm), and maximum relative humidity (%) were significantly correlated with monthly incidence of CCHF (p <0.05). There was no clear pattern of decline in the reported number of cases within the study's time span. The first spike in the number of CCHF cases in Iran occurred after the first surge of the disease in Pakistan. This study shows the potential of climate indicators as predictive factors in modeling the occurrence of CCHF, even though it has to be appreciated whether there is any need for a practically applicable model. There are also other factors, such as entomological indicators and virological finding that must be considered.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pittman, Jeremy; Wittrock, Virginia; Kulshreshtha, Surendra; Wheaton, Elaine
2011-01-01
With the likelihood of future changes in climate and climate variability, it is important to understand how human systems may be vulnerable. Rural communities in Saskatchewan having agricultural-based economies are particularly dependent on climate and could be among the most vulnerable human systems in Canada. Future changes in climate are likely…
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Integrated assessment in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE case studies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goodess, C. M.; Agnew, M. D.; Hemming, D.; Giannakopoulos, C.
2012-04-01
The heterogeneous nature of the Mediterranean environment, combined with a wide diversity of economic, social and cultural identities, make this region particularly amenable to integrated research on climate change impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptive response. Within the framework of the EU FP7 CIRCE project, eleven case-study locations were selected to reflect three generic environments (urban, rural and coastal), to quantify current and future climate change and to assess the potential consequences to human communities and ecosystems at the regional to local scale. The case studies (Athens, Beirut, Alexandria, Tuscany, Apulia, Tel Hadya, Judean Foothills, Gulf of Valencia, Gulf of Oran, Gulf of Gabes, West Nile Delta) were chosen to reflect the east-west and north-south contrasts across the Mediterranean, using common selection criteria. A rigorous common framework, referred to as the CIRCE Case studies Integrating Framework was developed to facilitate a structured and systematic basis for identifying and selecting indicators. Within this framework, climate dynamics is viewed as a key driver of changes in social and biogeophysical systems and is modulated by the inherent dynamics of these systems. The top-down, indicator-based approach was complemented by a bottom-up approach involving local and regional stakeholders. A participatory level of involvement was aimed for, with stakeholder dialogue on an informal basis throughout the project, culminating in a series of more formal regional stakeholder workshops. Identification and construction of physical and socio-economic indicators was the most challenging and time-consuming aspect of the case-study work. A detailed set of selection criteria was defined and the process of reviewing and refining indicators was iterative. Nonetheless, a number of data and methodological challenges were encountered. Despite these issues, indicator linkages diagrams provided a useful preparatory stage for structuring the integrated assessment for each case study. In the first and major assessment stage, impacts and vulnerability due to exposure to hazards associated with current and recent climate variability and change were explored using observed data. This then provided the context for considering future changes. The latter work was based on climate projections derived from the CIRCE global and regional climate model simulations which have the main novel characteristic of incorporating coupling between the Mediterranean Sea and atmosphere. Natural and human systems in all eleven case studies were found to be vulnerable to current climate variability and change as well as to social dynamics or drivers. The climate projections of increases in mean and extreme high temperature and decreases in precipitation are considered to be robust, although there is uncertainty with regards to the magnitude of change. They indicate that all case studies will experience continuing and increasing vulnerability to climate change in the absence of mitigation or adaptation. Projections for other extreme weather events, such as heavy precipitation and flooding, are highly uncertain, but any increase in such events would further increase vulnerability. At the same time, social dynamics and drivers such as population growth (at least in the short term and in the southern Mediterranean) are likely to further increase vulnerability.
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Climate Cases: Learning about Student Conceptualizations of Global Climate Change
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Tierney, Benjamin P.
2013-01-01
The complex topic of global climate change continues to be a challenging yet important topic among science educators and researchers. This mixed methods study adds to the growing research by investigating student conceptions of climate change from a system theory perspective (Von Bertalanffy, 1968) by asking the question, "How do differences…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Vos, D.; Ellis, S. M.; van der Westhuizen, Philip C.; Mentz, P. J.
2013-01-01
The Organisational Climate Description Questionnaire--Rutgers Elementary (OCDQ--RE) was used to determine the current organizational climate of primary schools in North-West Province, South Africa. This questionnaire evaluates the actions of principals and educators; the current organizational climate in primary schools can be determined from the…
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A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Venema, Victor; Auchmann, Renate; Aguilar, Enric
2015-04-01
n this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, under the umbrella of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., relocations and changes in instrumentation, instrument height or data collection and manipulation procedures. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of trends and variability. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. .The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important potentially biasing transitions are the adoption of Stevenson screens, efforts to reduce undercatchment of precipitation or the move to automatic weather stations. Thus a large global parallel dataset is highly desirable as it allows for the study of systematic biases in the global record. In the ISTI Parallel Observations Science Team (POST), we will gather parallel data in their native format (to avoid undetectable conversion errors we will convert it to a standard format ourselves). We are interested in data from all climate variables at all time scales; from annual to sub-daily. High-resolution data is important for understanding the physical causes for the differences between the parallel measurements. For the same reason, we are also interested in other climate variables measured at the same station. For example, in case of parallel temperature measurements, the influencing factors are expected to be insolation, wind and clouds cover; in case of parallel precipitation measurements, wind and temperature are potentially important. Metadata that describe the parallel measurements is as important as the data itself and will be collected as well. For example, the types of the instruments, their siting, height, maintenance, etc. Because they are widely used to study moderate extremes, we will compute the indices of the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). In case the daily data cannot be shared, we would appreciate these indices from parallel measurements. For more information: http://tinyurl.com/ISTI-Parallel
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Gamble, Angie Monique
2013-01-01
The purpose of this qualitative case study was to explore faculty diversity in the South by examining the campus climate and leadership commitment to the recruitment and retention of African American faculty. The Critical Race Theory (CRT) concept of storytelling captured the participants' personal experiences and perceptions. Three higher…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Jeong, Jinwoo; Kim, Hyoungbum; Chae, Dong-hyun; Kim, Eunjeong
2014-01-01
The purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of the case-based reasoning instructional model on learning about climate change unit. Results suggest that students showed interest because it allowed them to find the solution to the problem and solve the problem for themselves by analogy from other cases such as crossword puzzles in an…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ho, Li-Ching; Seow, Tricia
2017-01-01
This qualitative study examines how climate change scientific knowledge is framed and positioned within the Singapore and Philippines school curricula in relation to broader citizenship concepts and ideas. The findings reveal that climate change is taught in very different ways within both education systems. The Singapore case demonstrates the…
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The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960–2006
Mantilla, Gilma; Oliveros, Hugo; Barnston, Anthony G
2009-01-01
Background Malaria remains a serious problem in Colombia. The number of malaria cases is governed by multiple climatic and non-climatic factors. Malaria control policies, and climate controls such as rainfall and temperature variations associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been associated with malaria case numbers. Using historical climate data and annual malaria case number data from 1960 to 2006, statistical models are developed to isolate the effects of climate in each of Colombia's five contrasting geographical regions. Methods Because year to year climate variability associated with ENSO causes interannual variability in malaria case numbers, while changes in population and institutional control policy result in more gradual trends, the chosen predictors in the models are annual indices of the ENSO state (sea surface temperature [SST] in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and time reference indices keyed to two major malaria trends during the study period. Two models were used: a Poisson and a Negative Binomial regression model. Two ENSO indices, two time reference indices, and one dummy variable are chosen as candidate predictors. The analysis was conducted using the five geographical regions to match the similar aggregation used by the National Institute of Health for its official reports. Results The Negative Binomial regression model is found better suited to the malaria cases in Colombia. Both the trend variables and the ENSO measures are significant predictors of malaria case numbers in Colombia as a whole, and in two of the five regions. A one degree Celsius change in SST (indicating a weak to moderate ENSO event) is seen to translate to an approximate 20% increase in malaria cases, holding other variables constant. Conclusion Regional differentiation in the role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden during 1960–2006 was found, constituting a new approach to use ENSO as a significant predictor of the malaria cases in Colombia. These results naturally point to additional needed work: (1) refining the regional and seasonal dependence of climate on the ENSO state, and of malaria on the climate variables; (2) incorporating ENSO-related climate variability into dynamic malaria models. PMID:19133152
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Gunda, Resign; Chimbari, Moses John; Shamu, Shepherd; Sartorius, Benn; Mukaratirwa, Samson
2017-09-30
Malaria is a public health problem in Zimbabwe. Although many studies have indicated that climate change may influence the distribution of malaria, there is paucity of information on its trends and association with climatic variables in Zimbabwe. To address this shortfall, the trends of malaria incidence and its interaction with climatic variables in rural Gwanda, Zimbabwe for the period January 2005 to April 2015 was assessed. Retrospective data analysis of reported cases of malaria in three selected Gwanda district rural wards (Buvuma, Ntalale and Selonga) was carried out. Data on malaria cases was collected from the district health information system and ward clinics while data on precipitation and temperature were obtained from the climate hazards group infrared precipitation with station data (CHIRPS) database and the moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) satellite data, respectively. Distributed lag non-linear models (DLNLM) were used to determine the temporal lagged association between monthly malaria incidence and monthly climatic variables. There were 246 confirmed malaria cases in the three wards with a mean incidence of 0.16/1000 population/month. The majority of malaria cases (95%) occurred in the > 5 years age category. The results showed no correlation between trends of clinical malaria (unconfirmed) and confirmed malaria cases in all the three study wards. There was a significant association between malaria incidence and the climatic variables in Buvuma and Selonga wards at specific lag periods. In Ntalale ward, only precipitation (1- and 3-month lag) and mean temperature (1- and 2-month lag) were significantly associated with incidence at specific lag periods (p < 0.05). DLNM results suggest a key risk period in current month, based on key climatic conditions in the 1-4 month period prior. As the period of high malaria risk is associated with precipitation and temperature at 1-4 month prior in a seasonal cycle, intensifying malaria control activities over this period will likely contribute to lowering the seasonal malaria incidence.
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Making climate change tangible for strategic adaptation planning: The Climate Corridor Approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Orlowsky, Boris; Calanca, Pierluigi; Ali, Irshad; Ali, Jawad; Elguera Hilares, Agustin; Huggel, Christian; Khan, Inamullah; Neukom, Raphael; Nizami, Arjumand; Qazi, Muhammad Abbas; Robledo, Carmenza; Rohrer, Mario; Salzmann, Nadine; Schmidt, Kaspar
2017-04-01
Climate change is a global phenomenon and difficult to grasp. Although its importance is generally acknowledged, impacts of (future) climate change on human activities are in many cases not taken into account explicitly, in particular when planning development projects. This is due to technical and conceptual challenges, missing financial and human resources and competing priorities. Neglecting climate change can become problematic, if a proposed activity requires specific climatological conditions under which it becomes feasible, a simple example being crop cultivation that needs certain temperature an d precipitation ranges. Comparing such ``climate corridors'' to future climate projections provides an intuitive and low-cost yet quantitative means for assessing needs for, and viability of, adaptation activities under climate change - a "poor man's approach" to climate suitability analysis. A chief advantage of this approach is its modest demand on data. Three case studies from Pakistan, Peru and Tajikistan show that climate corridor analysis can deliver robust results and can be used to efficiently communicate risks and challenges of climate change to partners and stakeholders in the developing countries.
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A global database with parallel measurements to study non-climatic changes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Venema, Victor; Auchman, Renate; Aguilar, Enric
2017-04-01
In this work we introduce the rationale behind the ongoing compilation of a parallel measurements database, in the framework of the International Surface Temperatures Initiative (ISTI) and with the support of the World Meteorological Organization. We intend this database to become instrumental for a better understanding of inhomogeneities affecting the evaluation of long-term changes in daily climate data. Long instrumental climate records are usually affected by non-climatic changes, due to, e.g., (i) station re- locations, (ii) instrument height changes, (iii) instrumentation changes, (iv) observing environment changes, (v) different sampling intervals or data collection procedures, among others. These so-called inhomogeneities distort the climate signal and can hamper the assessment of long-term trends and variability of climate. Thus to study climatic changes we need to accurately distinguish non-climatic and climatic signals. The most direct way to study the influence of non-climatic changes on the distribution and to understand the reasons for these biases is the analysis of parallel measurements representing the old and new situation (in terms of e.g. instruments, location, different radiation shields, etc.). According to the limited number of available studies and our understanding of the causes of inhomogeneity, we expect that they will have a strong impact on the tails of the distribution of air temperatures and most likely of other climate elements. Our abilities to statistically homogenize daily data will be increased by systematically studying different causes of inhomogeneity replicated through parallel measurements. Current studies of non-climatic changes using parallel data are limited to local and regional case studies. However, the effect of specific transitions depends on the local climate and the most interesting climatic questions are about the systematic large-scale biases produced by transitions that occurred in many regions. Important potentially biasing transitions are the adoption of Stevenson screens, relocations (to airports) efforts to reduce undercatchment of precipitation or the move to automatic weather stations. Thus a large global parallel dataset is highly desirable as it allows for the study of systematic biases in the global record. We are interested in data from all climate variables at all time scales; from annual to sub-daily. High-resolution data is important for understanding the physical causes for the differences between the parallel measurements. For the same reason, we are also interested in other climate variables measured at the same station. For example, in case of parallel air temperature measurements, the influencing factors are expected to be global radiation, wind, humidity and cloud cover; in case of parallel precipitation measurements, wind and wet-bulb temperature are potentially important.
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Case study applications of the BASINS climate assessment tool (CAT)
This EPA report will illustrate the application of different climate assessment capabilities within EPA’s BASINS modeling system for assessing a range of potential questions about the effects of climate change on streamflow and water quality in different watershed settings and us...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara
2009-05-01
The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.
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Halsnaes, Kirsten; Traerup, Sara
2009-05-01
The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.
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Northward migration under a changing climate: a case study of blackgum (Nyssa Sylvatica)
Johanna Desprez; Basil V. Iannone III; Peilin Yang; Christopher M. Oswalt; Songlin Fei
2014-01-01
Species are predicted to shift their distribution ranges in response to climate change. Region-wide, empirically-based studies, however, are still limited to support these predictions. We used a model tree species, blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica), to study climate-induced range shift. Data collected from two separate sampling periods (1980s and 2007) by the USDAâs Forestry...
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Designing climate-smart conservation: guidance and case studies.
Hansen, Lara; Hoffman, Jennifer; Drews, Carlos; Mielbrecht, Eric
2010-02-01
To be successful, conservation practitioners and resource managers must fully integrate the effects of climate change into all planning projects. Some conservation practitioners are beginning to develop, test, and implement new approaches that are designed to deal with climate change. We devised four basic tenets that are essential in climate-change adaptation for conservation: protect adequate and appropriate space, reduce nonclimate stresses, use adaptive management to implement and test climate-change adaptation strategies, and work to reduce the rate and extent of climate change to reduce overall risk. To illustrate how this approach applies in the real world, we explored case studies of coral reefs in the Florida Keys; mangrove forests in Fiji, Tanzania, and Cameroon; sea-level rise and sea turtles in the Caribbean; tigers in the Sundarbans of India; and national planning in Madagascar. Through implementation of these tenets conservation efforts in each of these regions can be made more robust in the face of climate change. Although these approaches require reconsidering some traditional approaches to conservation, this new paradigm is technologically, economically, and intellectually feasible.
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75 FR 51806 - Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2010-08-23
... case studies describing the approaches currently being taken by four water utilities to assess their... series of case studies describing the approaches currently being taken by four water utilities in the... Vulnerability Assessment: Four Case Studies of Water Utility Practices AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Aulia, D.; Ayu, S. F.; Matondang, A.
2018-01-01
Malaria is the most contagious global concern. As a public health problem with outbreaks, affect the quality of life and economy, also could lead to death. Therefore, this research is to forecast malaria cases with climatic factors as predictors in Mandailing Natal Regency. The total number of positive malaria cases on January 2008 to December 2016 were taken from health department of Mandailing Natal Regency. Climates data such as rainfall, humidity, and temperature were taken from Center of Statistic Department of Mandailing Natal Regency. E-views ver. 9 is used to analyze this study. Autoregressive integrated average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (1,0,0)12 is the best model to explain the 67,2% variability data in time series study. Rainfall (P value = 0.0005), temperature (P value = 0,0029) and humidity (P value = 0.0001) are significant predictors for malaria transmission. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) in November and March shows peak for malaria cases.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rangecroft, Sally; Van Loon, Anne; Bosman, Marianne; Wanders, Niko; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; AghaKouchak, Amir
2017-04-01
Human activities can have a large influence on changes in the hydrological system and hydrological extremes, more than climate variability and climate change in some cases. However, there are currently only a limited number of studies which aim to quantify the human impact on hydrological droughts. Here we present a synthesis study of existing and new results that aims to summarize and quantify the anthropogenic impact on hydrological drought from case studies and observations. By combining a large number of case studies, we allow conclusions to be drawn about the effects of different human activities. This work suggests ways forward to increase our understanding on how human activities are influencing drought characteristics; invaluable information for water resource management and adaptation. During this project, the impact of different human activities (e.g. water abstraction, reservoir building, urbanisation, etc) on drought frequency, duration and deficit has been calculated in a consistent manner, allowing for an improved understanding to how they have impacted droughts. This consistent methodology is a necessary element for this comparative hydrology exercise, yet we use one which is flexible and applicable to different case study set ups and data availability. The methodology used here depends on available observation data, with three possible approaches: i) paired catchment approach; ii) upstream-downstream comparison; iii) observation modelling framework. The synthesised results of the existing and new case studies cover a number of human activities, hydro-climatic and socio-economic contexts. In particular, we remove the climate dependency in the results by using case studies from multiple climatic regions, including UK, Italy, US, Australia, Mexico and Chile. For groundwater abstraction, it is clear across all the relevant case studies that abstraction activities worsen drought events. This is especially prominent in the deficit volumes, with nearly all results showing at least a 50% increase in deficit compared to the natural situation due to the human activity. However, for the reservoir case studies we find mixed results with some catchments showing drought alleviation and others demonstrating an aggravation of drought. These results show us that the impact of reservoirs on droughts downstream is dependent on reservoir management and purpose. From the urbanised case studies we find urbanisation to be a more difficult human activity to quantify and analyse. Mixed results indicate possible conflicting processes occurring due to urbanisation, and the need for further case studies and discussions. This is the first step towards quantifying the human influence on drought on the global scale using catchment scale observation-based studies, which will provide important information for global scale modellers, water managers and drought policy makers.
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Elevated CO2 concentration, temperature, and precipitation intensity driven by climate change are expected to cause significant environmental changes in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW). Although the potential effects of climate change are widely reported, few studies have been conducted to unders...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fujisawa, Mariko
2016-04-01
Climate forecasts have been developed to assist decision making in sectors averse to, and affected by, climate risks, and agriculture is one of those. In agriculture and food security, climate information is now used on a range of timescales, from days (weather), months (seasonal outlooks) to decades (climate change scenarios). Former researchers have shown that when seasonal climate forecast information was provided to farmers prior to decision making, farmers adapted by changing their choice of planting seeds and timing or area planted. However, it is not always clear that the end-users' needs for climate information are met and there might be a large gap between information supplied and needed. It has been pointed out that even when forecasts were available, they were often not utilized by farmers and extension services because of lack of trust in the forecast or the forecasts did not reach the targeted farmers. Many studies have focused on the use of either seasonal forecasts or longer term climate change prediction, but little research has been done on the medium term, that is, 1 to 10 year future climate information. The agriculture and food system sector is one potential user of medium term information, as land use policy and cropping systems selection may fall into this time scale and may affect farmers' decision making process. Assuming that reliable information is provided and it is utilized by farmers for decision making, it might contribute to resilient farming and indeed to longer term food security. To this end, we try to determine the effect of medium term climate information on farmers' strategic decision making process. We explored the end-users' needs for climate information and especially the possible role of medium term information in agricultural system, by conducting interview surveys with farmers and agricultural experts. In this study, the cases of apple production in South Africa, maize production in Malawi and rice production in Tanzania will be presented. With case studies of various crops, we also aim to identify what climatic factors and timescale of prediction may be critical to what crop types of farmers, which may be of value to climate prediction community to further develop climate prediction useful for agricultural system.
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Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Kerry L. Metlen; Gwyneth M. Myer; Alaric V. Sample
2016-01-01
Climate change will likely have significant effects on forest ecosystems worldwide. In Mediterranean regions, such as that in southwestern Oregon, USA, changes will likely be driven mainly by wildfire and drought. To minimize the negative effects of climate change, resource managers require tools and information to assess climate change vulnerabilities and to develop...
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Climate change and vector-borne diseases: an economic impact analysis of malaria in Africa.
Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Musumba, Mark; McCarl, Bruce A; Wu, Ximing
2011-03-01
A semi-parametric econometric model is used to study the relationship between malaria cases and climatic factors in 25 African countries. Results show that a marginal change in temperature and precipitation levels would lead to a significant change in the number of malaria cases for most countries by the end of the century. Consistent with the existing biophysical malaria model results, the projected effects of climate change are mixed. Our model projects that some countries will see an increase in malaria cases but others will see a decrease. We estimate projected malaria inpatient and outpatient treatment costs as a proportion of annual 2000 health expenditures per 1,000 people. We found that even under minimal climate change scenario, some countries may see their inpatient treatment cost of malaria increase more than 20%.
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Energy Design Guidelines for High Performance Schools: Hot and Dry Climates.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Department of Energy, Washington, DC. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
This guide contains recommendations for designing high performance, energy efficient schools located in hot and dry climates. A high performance checklist for designers is included along with several case studies of projects that successfully demonstrated high performance design solutions for hot and dry climates. The guide's 10 sections…
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School Organizational Climate and School Improvement.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Dellar, Graham B.; Giddings, Geoffrey J.
The refinement and application of the School Organizational Climate Questionnaire (SOCQ), an instrument for measuring organizational climate, is described in this report. The instrument is a mechanism by which schools can direct their school improvement efforts. In two case studies, a small urban elementary and a large urban secondary school…
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Forsythe, N. D.; Fowler, H. J.
2017-12-01
The "Climate-smart agriculture implementation through community-focused pursuit of land and water productivity in South Asia" (CSAICLAWPS) project is a research initiative funded by the (UK) Royal Society through its Challenge Grants programme which is part of the broader UK Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF). CSAICLAWPS has three objectives: a) development of "added-value" - bias assessed, statistically down-scaled - climate projections for selected case study sites across South Asia; b) investigation of crop failure modes under both present (observed) and future (projected) conditions; and c) facilitation of developing local adaptive capacity and resilience through stakeholder engagement. At AGU we will be presenting both next steps and progress to date toward these three objectives: [A] We have carried out bias assessments of a substantial multi-model RCM ensemble (MME) from the CORDEX South Asia (CORDEXdomain for case studies in three countries - Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka - and (stochastically) produced synthetic time-series for these sites from local observations using a Python-based implementation of the principles underlying the Climate Research Unit Weather Generator (CRU-WG) in order to enable probabilistic simulation of current crop yields. [B] We have characterised present response of local crop yields to climate variability in key case study sites using AquaCrop simulations parameterised based on input (agronomic practices, soil conditions, etc) from smallholder farmers. [C] We have implemented community-based hydro-climatological monitoring in several case study "revenue villages" (panchayats) in the Nainital District of Uttarakhand. The purpose of this is not only to increase availability of meteorological data, but also has the aspiration of, over time, leading to enhanced quantitative awareness of present climate variability and potential future conditions (as projected by RCMs). Next steps in our work will include: 1) future crop yield simulations driven by "perturbation" of synthetic time-series using "change factors from the CORDEX-SA MME; 2) stakeholder dialogues critically evaluating potential strategies at the grassroots (implementation) level to mitigate impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.
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Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.
Winter, Maiken; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Hochachka, Wesley M; Koehncke, Arnulf; Meiri, Shai; De la Riva, Ignacio
2016-09-01
Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.
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Enabling the use of climate model data in the Dutch climate effect community
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Som de Cerff, Wim; Plieger, Maarten
2010-05-01
Within the climate effect community the usage of climate model data is emerging. Where mostly climate time series and weather generators were used, there is a shift to incorporate climate model data into climate effect models. The use of climate model data within the climate effect models is difficult, due to missing metadata, resolution and projection issues, data formats and availability of the parameters of interest. Often the climate effect modelers are not aware of available climate model data or are not aware of how they can use it. Together with seven other partners (CERFACS, CNR-IPSL, SMHI, INHGA, CMCC, WUR, MF-CNRM), KNMI is involved in the FP7 IS ENES (http://www.enes.org) project work package 10/JRA5 ‘Bridging Climate Research Data and the Needs of the Impact Community. The aims of this work package are to enhance the use of Climate Research Data and to enhance the interaction with climate effect/impact communities. Phase one is to define use cases together with the Dutch climate effect community, which describe the intended use of climate model data in climate effect models. We defined four use cases: 1) FEWS hydrological Framework (Deltares) 2) METAPHOR, a plants and species dispersion model (Wageningen University) 3) Natuurplanner, an Ecological model suite (Wageningen University) 4) Land use models (Free University/JRC). Also the other partners in JRA5 have defined use cases, which are representative for the climate effect and impact communities in their country. Goal is to find commonalities between all defined use cases. The common functionality will be implemented as e-tools and incorporated in the IS-ENES data portal. Common issues relate to e.g., need for high resolution: downscaling from GCM to local scale (also involves interpolation); parameter selection; finding extremes; averaging methods. At the conference we will describe the FEWS case in more detail: Delft FEWS is an open shell system (in development since 1995) for performing hydrological predictions and the handling of time series data. The most important capabilities of FEWS are importing of meteorological and hydrological data and organizing the workflows of the different models which can be used within FEWS, like the Netherlands Hydrological Instrumentarium (NHI). Besides predictions, the system is currently being used for hydrological climate effects studies. Currently regionally downscaled data are used, but using model data will be the next step. This coupling of climate model data to FEWS will open a wider rage of climate impact and effect research, but it is a difficult task to accomplish. Issues to be dealt with are: regridding, downscaling, format conversion, extraction of required data and addition of descriptive metadata, including quality and uncertainty parameters. Finding an appropriate solution involves several iterations: first, the use case was defined, then we just provided a single data file containing some data of interest provided via FTP, next this data was offered through OGC services. Currently we are working on providing larger datasets and improving on the parameters and metadata. We will present the results (e-tools/data) and experiences gained on implementing the described use cases. Note that we are currently using experimental data, as the official climate model runs are not available yet.
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Marquès, Montse; Bangash, Rubab Fatima; Kumar, Vikas; Sharp, Richard; Schuhmacher, Marta
2013-12-15
Mediterranean basin is considered one of the most vulnerable regions of the world to climate change and with high probability to face acute water scarcity problem in the coming years. Francolí River basin (NE Spain), located in this vulnerable region is selected as a case study to evaluate the impact of climate change on the delivery of water considering the IPCC scenarios A2 and B1 for the time spans 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. InVEST model is applied in a low flow river as a new case study, which reported successful results after its model validation. The studied hydrological ecosystem services will be highly impacted by climate change at Francolí River basin. Water yield is expected to be reduced between 11.5 and 44% while total drinking water provisioning will decrease between 13 and 50% having adverse consequences on the water quality of the river. Focusing at regional scale, Prades Mountains and Brugent Tributary provide most of the provision of water and also considered highly vulnerable areas to climate change. However, the most vulnerable part is the northern area which has the lowest provision of water. Francolí River basin is likely to experience desertification at this area drying Anguera and Vallverd tributaries. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Tolerance to multiple climate stressors: a case study of Douglas-fir drought and cold hardiness
Sheel Bansal; Connie Harrington; Brad St. Clair
2016-01-01
1. Drought and freeze events are two of the most common forms of climate extremes which result in tree damage or death, and the frequency and intensity of both stressors may increase with climate change. Few studies have examined natural covariation in stress tolerance traits to cope with multiple stressors among wild plant populations. 2. We assessed the...
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Predicting ecological responses in a changing ocean: the effects of future climate uncertainty.
Freer, Jennifer J; Partridge, Julian C; Tarling, Geraint A; Collins, Martin A; Genner, Martin J
2018-01-01
Predicting how species will respond to climate change is a growing field in marine ecology, yet knowledge of how to incorporate the uncertainty from future climate data into these predictions remains a significant challenge. To help overcome it, this review separates climate uncertainty into its three components (scenario uncertainty, model uncertainty, and internal model variability) and identifies four criteria that constitute a thorough interpretation of an ecological response to climate change in relation to these parts (awareness, access, incorporation, communication). Through a literature review, the extent to which the marine ecology community has addressed these criteria in their predictions was assessed. Despite a high awareness of climate uncertainty, articles favoured the most severe emission scenario, and only a subset of climate models were used as input into ecological analyses. In the case of sea surface temperature, these models can have projections unrepresentative against a larger ensemble mean. Moreover, 91% of studies failed to incorporate the internal variability of a climate model into results. We explored the influence that the choice of emission scenario, climate model, and model realisation can have when predicting the future distribution of the pelagic fish, Electrona antarctica . Future distributions were highly influenced by the choice of climate model, and in some cases, internal variability was important in determining the direction and severity of the distribution change. Increased clarity and availability of processed climate data would facilitate more comprehensive explorations of climate uncertainty, and increase in the quality and standard of marine prediction studies.
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Davis, Edward Byrd
2005-01-01
Palaeobiologists have investigated the evolutionary responses of extinct organisms to climate change, and have also used extinct organisms to reconstruct palaeoclimates. There is evidence of a disconnection between climate change and evolution that suggests that organisms may not be accurate palaeoclimate indicators. Here, marmots (Marmota sp.) are used as a case study to examine whether similarity of climate preferences is correlated with evolutionary relatedness of species. This study tests for a relationship between phylogenetic distance and `climate distance' of species within a clade. There should be a significant congruence between maximum likelihood distance and standardized Euclidian distance between climates if daughter species tend to stay in environments similar to parent species. Marmots make a good test case because there are many extant species, their phylogenies are well established and individual survival is linked to climatic factors. A Mantel test indicates a significant correlation between climate and phylogenetic distance matrices, but this relationship explains only a small fraction of the variance (regression R2=0.114). These results suggest that (i) closely related species of marmots tend to stay in similar environments; (ii) marmots may be more susceptible than many mammals to global climate change; and (iii) because of the considerable noise in this system, the correlation cannot be used for detailed palaeoclimate reconstruction. PMID:15799948
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Pengyao; Xiao, He; Li, Xiang; Hu, Wenhao; Gu, Shoubai; Yu, Zhenrong
2018-01-01
Coping with various ecological risks caused by extreme weather events of global climate change has become an important issue in regional planning, and storm water management for sustainable development. In this paper, taking Shanghai, China as a case study, four potential ecological risks were identified including flood disaster, sea-source disaster, urban heat island effect, and land subsidence. Based on spatial database, the spatial variation of these four ecological risks was evaluated, and the planning area was divided into seven responding regions with different green infrastructure strategy. The methodology developed in this study combining ecological risk evaluation with spatial regionalization planning could contribute to coping with global climate change.
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Aron, Joan L
2006-11-01
This paper presents two case studies of the barriers to the use of geospatial data in the context of public health adaptation to climate change and variability. The first case study is on the hazards of coastal zone development in the United States with the main emphasis on Hurricane Katrina. An important barrier to the use of geospatial data is that the legal system does not support restrictions on land use intended to protect the coastal zone. Economic interests to develop New Orleans and the Mississippi River, both over the long term and the short term, had the effect of increasing the impact of the hurricane. The second case study is epidemics of climate-sensitive diseases with the main emphasis on malaria in Africa. Limits to model accuracy may present a problem in using climate data for an early warning system, and some geographic locations are likely to be more suitable than others. Costs of the system, including the costs of errors, may also inhibit implementation. Deriving societal benefits from geospatial data requires an understanding of the particular decision contexts and organizational processes in which knowledge is developed and used. The data by themselves will not usually generate a societal response. Scientists working in applications should develop partnerships to address the use of geospatial data for societal benefit.
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Cloud-Enabled Climate Analytics-as-a-Service using Reanalysis data: A case study.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nadeau, D.; Duffy, D.; Schnase, J. L.; McInerney, M.; Tamkin, G.; Potter, G. L.; Thompson, J. H.
2014-12-01
The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) maintains advanced data capabilities and facilities that allow researchers to access the enormous volume of data generated by weather and climate models. The NASA Climate Model Data Service (CDS) and the NCCS are merging their efforts to provide Climate Analytics-as-a-Service for the comparative study of the major reanalysis projects: ECMWF ERA-Interim, NASA/GMAO MERRA, NOAA/NCEP CFSR, NOAA/ESRL 20CR, JMA JRA25, and JRA55. These reanalyses have been repackaged to netCDF4 file format following the CMIP5 Climate and Forecast (CF) metadata convention prior to be sequenced into the Hadoop Distributed File System ( HDFS ). A small set of operations that represent a common starting point in many analysis workflows was then created: min, max, sum, count, variance and average. In this example, Reanalysis data exploration was performed with the use of Hadoop MapReduce and accessibility was achieved using the Climate Data Service(CDS) application programming interface (API) created at NCCS. This API provides a uniform treatment of large amount of data. In this case study, we have limited our exploration to 2 variables, temperature and precipitation, using 3 operations, min, max and avg and using 30-year of Reanalysis data for 3 regions of the world: global, polar, subtropical.
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Climate and society in 20th century Mexico
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Liverman, Diana M.
1991-01-01
Mexican agriculture has been greatly transformed by the widespread introduction of 'Green Revolution' technologies (irrigation, chemical fertilizers, and improved seeds), through land reform, and by land use policies oriented to export crops and grain production. Drought prone Mexico provides an excellent case to study how technological and social changes alter the impact of drought on food and agricultural system. A goal is to document and understand how relationships between climate and agriculture in Mexico have changed in the last fifty years. The results for several locations will be interpreted in light of the prospects of regional climate change due to global warming. This analysis will be complimented by four case studies of vulnerability to drought which will use local records and interviews to try and show how environmental, technological, and social changes may have altered the impacts of climate on local agricultural systems.
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Tompkins, Adrian M; Larsen, Laragh; McCreesh, Nicky; Taylor, David
2016-03-31
Malaria case statistics were analysed for the period 1926 to 1960 to identify inter-annual variations in malaria cases for the Uganda Protectorate. The analysis shows the mid-to-late 1930s to be a period of increased reported cases. After World War II, malaria cases trend down to a relative minimum in the early 1950s, before increasing rapidly after 1953 to the end of the decade. Data for the Western Province confirm these national trends, which at the time were attributed to a wide range of causes, including land development and management schemes, population mobility, interventions and misdiagnosis. Climate was occasionally proposed as a contributor to enhanced case numbers, and unusual precipitation patterns were held responsible; temperature was rarely, if ever, considered. In this study, a dynamical malaria model was driven with available precipitation and temperature data from the period for five stations located across a range of environments in Uganda. In line with the historical data, the simulations produced relatively enhanced transmission in the 1930s, although there is considerable variability between locations. In all locations, malaria transmission was low in the late 1940s and early 1950s, steeply increasing after 1954. Results indicate that past climate variability explains some of the variations in numbers of reported malaria cases. The impact of multiannual variability in temperature, while only on the order of 0.5°C, was sufficient to drive some of the trends observed in the statistics and thus the role of climate was likely underestimated in the contemporary reports. As the elimination campaigns of the 1960s followed this partly climate-driven increase in malaria, this emphasises the need to account for climate when planning and evaluating intervention strategies.
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Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio
2015-01-01
Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate.
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Beyond Sexual Assault Surveys: A Model for Comprehensive Campus Climate Assessments
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McMahon, Sarah; Stepleton, Kate; Cusano, Julia; O'Connor, Julia; Gandhi, Khushbu; McGinty, Felicia
2018-01-01
The White House Task Force to Protect Students from Sexual Assault identified campus climate surveys as "the first step" for addressing campus sexual violence. Through a process case study, this article presents one model for engaging in a comprehensive, action-focused campus climate assessment process. Rooted in principles of…
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Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models
USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Beard, Caroline A.; Thompson, Jessica Leigh
2012-01-01
Through the lens of place-based climate change communication, this manuscript compares results from internal and external assessments of capacity to communicate about climate change at national parks and refuges in southern Florida. The internal survey sample included agency staff, stakeholders, community partners, and concessionaires; the…
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Brook, Barry W; Akçakaya, H Resit; Keith, David A; Mace, Georgina M; Pearson, Richard G; Araújo, Miguel B
2009-12-23
Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25-29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Okaya, Tom Mboya; Horne, Marj; Lamig, Madeleine; Smith, Kenneth H.
2013-01-01
The present study utilized the Inviting School Survey-Revised (ISS-R) (Smith, 2005b, 2013) based on Invitational Theory and Practice (Purkey & Novak, 2008) to examine the school climate of a public primary school in a low urban socio-economic setting in Kenya. School climate was defined as the perceptions of primary school teachers and pupils…
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Ge Sun; Catalina Segura
2013-01-01
The aim of the special issue âInteractions of Forests, Climate, Water Resources, and Humans in a Changing Environmentâ is to present case studies on the influences of natural and human disturbances on forest water resources under a changing climate. Studies in this collection of six papers cover a wide range of geographic regions from Australia to Nigeria with spatial...
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Zamasiya, Byron; Nyikahadzoi, Kefasi; Mukamuri, Billy Billiard
2017-08-01
This paper examines factors influencing behavioural change among smallholder farmers towards adaptation to climate change in transitional climatic zones of Africa, specifically, Hwedza District in Zimbabwe. Data for this study were collected from 400 randomly-selected smallholder farmers, using a structured questionnaire, focus group discussions and key informant interviews. The study used an ordered logit model to examine the factors that influence smallholder farmers' behavioural intention towards adaptation to climate change. Results from the study show that the gender of the household head, access to extension services on crop and livestock production, access to climate information, membership to social groups and experiencing a drought have a positive influence on farmers' attitude towards adaptation to climate change and variability. The study concluded that although the majority of smallholder farmers perceive that the climate is changing, they continue to habour negative attitudes towards prescribed climate change adaptation techniques. This study recommends more education on climate change, as well as adaptation strategies for both agricultural extension workers and farmers. This can be complemented by disseminating timely climate information through extension officers and farmers' groups. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review
2016-01-01
Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species–study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians. PMID:27703684
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An investigation of safety climate in OHSAS 18001-certified and non-certified organizations.
Ghahramani, Abolfazl
2016-09-01
Many organizations worldwide have implemented Occupational Health and Safety Assessment Series (OHSAS) 18001 in their premises because of the assumed positive effects of this standard on safety. Few studies have analyzed the effect of the safety climate in OHSAS 18001-certified organizations. This case-control study used a new safety climate questionnaire to evaluate three OHSAS 18001-certified and three non-certified manufacturing companies in Iran. Hierarchical regression indicated that the safety climate was influenced by OHSAS implementation and by safety training. Employees who received safety training had better perceptions of the safety climate and its dimensions than other respondents within the certified companies. This study found that the implementation of OHSAS 18001 does not guarantee improvement of the safety climate. This study also emphasizes the need for high-quality safety training for employees of the certified companies to improve the safety climate.
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Requirements Engineering in Building Climate Science Software
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Batcheller, Archer L.
2011-01-01
Software has an important role in supporting scientific work. This dissertation studies teams that build scientific software, focusing on the way that they determine what the software should do. These requirements engineering processes are investigated through three case studies of climate science software projects. The Earth System Modeling…
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Energy use and climate change improvements of Li/S batteries based on life cycle assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Arvidsson, Rickard; Janssen, Matty; Svanström, Magdalena; Johansson, Patrik; Sandén, Björn A.
2018-04-01
We present a life cycle assessment (LCA) study of a lithium/sulfur (Li/S) cell regarding its energy use (in electricity equivalents, kWhel) and climate change (in kg carbon dioxide equivalents, CO2 eq) with the aim of identifying improvement potentials. Possible improvements are illustrated by departing from a base case of Li/S battery design, electricity from coal power, and heat from natural gas. In the base case, energy use is calculated at 580 kWhel kWh-1 and climate change impact at 230 kg CO2 eq kWh-1 of storage capacity. The main contribution to energy use comes from the LiTFSI electrolyte salt production and the main contribution to climate change is electricity use during the cell production stage. By (i) reducing cell production electricity requirement, (ii) sourcing electricity and heat from renewable sources, (iii) improving the specific energy of the Li/S cell, and (iv) switching to carbon black for the cathode, energy use and climate change impact can be reduced by 54 and 93%, respectively. For climate change, our best-case result of 17 kg CO2 eq kWh-1 is of similar magnitude as the best-case literature results for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The lithium metal requirement of Li/S batteries and LIBs are also of similar magnitude.
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Potential impacts of climate change on hydrologic components of Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed were assessed using climate datasets from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Historical and future ensembles of downscaled precipitation an...
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Fundamental questions for climate change policy and adaptation strategies are to what extent does ecological risk change under different climate scenarios and how do any changes in risk vary among taxa and geographically. To evaluate these questions, we developed a rule-based fra...
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Chu, Hui-Chin; Fu, Chi-Jung
2006-01-01
This study was to investigate the impacts of leadership style and school climate on faculty psychological contracts. Demographic variables were also tested. The findings indicated that overall perceptions of the faculties toward leadership style, school climate, and psychological contract were favorable. Moreover, leadership style and school…
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Adapting California’s ecosystems to a changing climate
Elizabeth Chornesky,; David Ackerly,; Paul Beier,; Frank Davis,; Flint, Lorraine E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Moyle, Peter B.; Moritz, Max A.; Scoonover, Mary; Byrd, Kristin B.; Alvarez, Pelayo; Heller, Nicole E.; Micheli, Elisabeth; Weiss, Stuart
2017-01-01
Significant efforts are underway to translate improved understanding of how climate change is altering ecosystems into practical actions for sustaining ecosystem functions and benefits. We explore this transition in California, where adaptation and mitigation are advancing relatively rapidly, through four case studies that span large spatial domains and encompass diverse ecological systems, institutions, ownerships, and policies. The case studies demonstrate the context specificity of societal efforts to adapt ecosystems to climate change and involve applications of diverse scientific tools (e.g., scenario analyses, downscaled climate projections, ecological and connectivity models) tailored to specific planning and management situations (alternative energy siting, wetland management, rangeland management, open space planning). They illustrate how existing institutional and policy frameworks provide numerous opportunities to advance adaptation related to ecosystems and suggest that progress is likely to be greatest when scientific knowledge is integrated into collective planning and when supportive policies and financing enable action.
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Climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages
Lynch, Abigail J.; Myers, Bonnie; Chu, Cindy; Eby, Lisa A.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Lyons, John; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.
2016-01-01
Climate is a critical driver of many fish populations, assemblages, and aquatic communities. However, direct observational studies of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes are rare. In this synthesis, we (1) summarize climate trends that may influence North American inland fish populations and assemblages, (2) compile 31 peer-reviewed studies of documented climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages, and (3) highlight four case studies representing a variety of observed responses ranging from warmwater systems in the southwestern and southeastern United States to coldwater systems along the Pacific Coast and Canadian Shield. We conclude by identifying key data gaps and research needs to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches to managing North American inland fishes and fisheries in a changing climate.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Matthews, E.
2008-12-01
Malaria is currently prevalent in many countries and has been for centuries. Primary controllers of the distribution and incidence of malaria in the past have been economic, social, military, political etc. with a modest contribution from local climate variations. Studies of potential impacts of climate change on the epidemiology of diseases such as malaria have focused on the impact of changing environmental conditions on vector physiology but little attention has been paid to factors that explain historical variations in spatial and temporal distributions of the disease. This talk reports results of three historical case studies from the US, Italy and Sri Lanka that bring together a breadth of information from varied sources in order to illustrate the value of including such information in studies of disease-climate connections.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fox Maule, Cathrine; Sloth Madsen, Marianne; May, Wilhelm; Hesselbjerg Christensen, Jens; Yang, Shuting; Christensen, Ole B.
2015-04-01
Climate impact studies are based on climate simulations originating from regional or global climate models, provided either through the climate modeling centers directly or through climate data portals. In order to give the most beneficial results, the climate model data need to fulfill various requirements related to the respective impact models. These requirements, however, are often not well defined and subjected to individual impact models, and hence, can lead to discrepancies between the climate data provided by the climate modeling community and the data required by the impact models. As the climate model data are the first step in a process chain, limitations and problems with these data will affect the studies based on the results by the impact models and, hence, might confine the value of a project working with these results. DMI has over the past years provided climate scenario data for impact studies in several international and national research projects, including ENSEMBLES, WATCH, CRES and HYACINTS as well as the still ongoing projects IMPRESSIONS, IMPACT2C and MODEXTREME, dealing with numerous different impact sectors. Thus DMI has gained experience with a wide range of projects from very different disciplines including agriculture, hydrology, socio-economics, air-pollution and sea-level rise. The lessons learned from all these projects is that there is no standard procedure that can be implemented, but rather that individual solutions have to be constructed on a case-by-case basis for each project. This is due to the fact that the requirements for different impact models differ. For example, some impact models may need monthly input data, while others need daily data. Some need very high horizontal resolution while others may make do with relatively coarse resolution; some operate on global scale while others focus on regional or local scale. Some models need only a few variables as e.g. precipitation and temperature, while others also require e.g. radiation and evaporation. All of these requirements - and many more - shape the outcome of each individual project. Here, we highlight some of the procedures developed in some of the projects we have been involved in, and reason why the given steps were taken in those projects; focus is on MODEXTREME and IMPRESSIONS. We also point out some of the limiting factors that arise in concrete cases, often due to lack of useful observations or simulations. To conclude, we suggest a flow chart for decision as guidance to ease the procedure of providing suitable climate model output data for impact studies in future projects.
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Integrating Climate Projections into Multi-Level City Planning: A Texas Case Study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hayhoe, K.; Gelca, R.; Baumer, Z.; Gold, G.
2016-12-01
Climate change impacts on energy and water are a serious concern for many cities across the United States. Regional projections from the National Assessment process, or state-specific efforts as in California and Delaware, are typically used to quantify impacts at the regional scale. However, these are often insufficient to provide information at the scale of decision-making for an individual city. Here, we describe a multi-level approach to developing and integrating usable climate information into planning, using a case study from the City of Austin in Texas, a state where few official climate resources are available. Spearheaded by the Office of Sustainability in collaboration with Austin Water, the first step was to characterize observed trends and future projections of how global climate change might affect Austin's current climate. The City then assembled a team of city experts, consulting engineers, and climate scientists to develop a methodology to assess impacts on regional hydrology as part of its Integrated Water Resource Plan, Austin's 100-year water supply and demand planning effort, an effort which included calculating a range of climate indicators and developing and evaluating a new approach to generating climate inputs - including daily streamflow and evaporation - for existing water availability models. This approach, which brings together a range of public, private, and academic experts to support a stakeholder-initiated planning effort, provides concrete insights into the critical importance of multi-level, long-term engagement for development and application of actionable climate science at the local to regional scale.
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Chowdhury, Fazle Rabbi; Ibrahim, Quazi Shihab Uddin; Bari, Md Shafiqul; Alam, M M Jahangir; Dunachie, Susanna J; Rodriguez-Morales, Alfonso J; Patwary, Md Ismail
2018-01-01
Bangladesh is one of the world's most vulnerable countries for climate change. This observational study examined the association of temperature, humidity and rainfall with six common climate-sensitive infectious diseases in adults (malaria, diarrheal disease, enteric fever, encephalitis, pneumonia and bacterial meningitis) in northeastern Bangladesh. Subjects admitted to the adult medicine ward of a tertiary referral hospital in Sylhet, Bangladesh from 2008 to 2012 with a diagnosis of one of the six chosen climate-sensitive infectious diseases were enrolled in the study. Climate-related data were collected from the Bangladesh Meteorological Institute. Disease incidence was then analyzed against mean temperature, humidity and average rainfall for the Sylhet region. Statistical significance was determined using Mann-Whitney test, Chi-square test and ANOVA testing. 5033 patients were enrolled (58% male, 42% female, ratio 1.3:1). All six diseases showed highly significant (p = 0.01) rises in incidence between the study years 2008 (540 cases) and 2012 (1330 cases), compared with no significant rise in overall all-cause hospital admissions in the same period (p = 0.19). The highest number of malaria (135), diarrhea (266) and pneumonia (371) cases occurred during the rainy season. On the other hand, the maximum number of enteric fever (408), encephalitis (183) and meningitis (151) cases occurred during autumn, which follows the rainy season. A positive (P = 0.01) correlation was observed between increased temperature and the incidence of malaria, enteric fever and diarrhea, and a negative correlation with encephalitis, meningitis and pneumonia. Higher humidity correlated (P = 0.01) with a higher number of cases of malaria and diarrhea, but inversely correlated with meningitis and encephalitis. Higher incidences of encephalitis and meningitis occurred while there was low rainfall. Incidences of diarrhea, malaria and enteric fever, increased with rainfall, and then gradually decreased. The findings support a relationship between weather patterns and disease incidence, and provide essential baseline data for future large prospective studies.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sperling, Joshua B.; Ramaswami, Anu
This article reviews city case studies to inform a framework for developing urban infrastructure design standards and policy instruments that together aim to pursue energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation through city carbon budgets and water use efficiency and climate risk adaptation through city water budgets. Here, this article also proposes combining carbon and water budgeting at the city-scale for achieving successful coupled city carbon and water budget (CCCWB) programs. Under a CCCWB program, key actors including local governments, infrastructure designers/operators, and households would be assigned a GHG emissions and water 'budget' and be required by state or federal levelsmore » to keep within this budget through the use of flexibility mechanisms, incentive programs, and sanctions. Multiple incentives and cross-scale governance arrangements would be tied to energy-water systems integration, resource-efficient transportation and infrastructure development, and effective monitoring and management of energy use, emissions, climate risks to, and security of energy-water-transport-food and other critical systems. As a first step to promote strategies for CCCWB development, we systematically review approaches of and shortcomings to existing budget-based programs in the UK and US, and suggest improvements in three areas: measurement, modeling effectiveness of interventions for staying within a budget, and governance. To date, the majority of climate action or sustainability plans by cities, while mentioning climate impacts as a premise for the plan, do not address these impacts in the plan. They focus primarily on GHG mitigation while ignoring resource depletion challenges and energy-climate-water linkages, whereby water supplies can begin to limit energy production and energy shifts to mitigate climate change can limit water availability. Coupled carbon-water budget plans, programs, and policies - described in this study- may address these concerns as well as the emerging trends that will exacerbate these problems - e.g., including population growth, climatic changes, and emerging policy choices that are not coordinated. Cities and 'Budget-Based' Management of the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus: Case Studies to Inform Strategy for Integrated Performance- and Incentive-Based Design and Policy Instruments.« less
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Sperling, Joshua B.; Ramaswami, Anu
2017-11-03
This article reviews city case studies to inform a framework for developing urban infrastructure design standards and policy instruments that together aim to pursue energy efficiency and greenhouse gas mitigation through city carbon budgets and water use efficiency and climate risk adaptation through city water budgets. Here, this article also proposes combining carbon and water budgeting at the city-scale for achieving successful coupled city carbon and water budget (CCCWB) programs. Under a CCCWB program, key actors including local governments, infrastructure designers/operators, and households would be assigned a GHG emissions and water 'budget' and be required by state or federal levelsmore » to keep within this budget through the use of flexibility mechanisms, incentive programs, and sanctions. Multiple incentives and cross-scale governance arrangements would be tied to energy-water systems integration, resource-efficient transportation and infrastructure development, and effective monitoring and management of energy use, emissions, climate risks to, and security of energy-water-transport-food and other critical systems. As a first step to promote strategies for CCCWB development, we systematically review approaches of and shortcomings to existing budget-based programs in the UK and US, and suggest improvements in three areas: measurement, modeling effectiveness of interventions for staying within a budget, and governance. To date, the majority of climate action or sustainability plans by cities, while mentioning climate impacts as a premise for the plan, do not address these impacts in the plan. They focus primarily on GHG mitigation while ignoring resource depletion challenges and energy-climate-water linkages, whereby water supplies can begin to limit energy production and energy shifts to mitigate climate change can limit water availability. Coupled carbon-water budget plans, programs, and policies - described in this study- may address these concerns as well as the emerging trends that will exacerbate these problems - e.g., including population growth, climatic changes, and emerging policy choices that are not coordinated. Cities and 'Budget-Based' Management of the Energy-Water-Climate Nexus: Case Studies to Inform Strategy for Integrated Performance- and Incentive-Based Design and Policy Instruments.« less
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Forecasting malaria cases using climatic factors in delhi, India: a time series analysis.
Kumar, Varun; Mangal, Abha; Panesar, Sanjeet; Yadav, Geeta; Talwar, Richa; Raut, Deepak; Singh, Saudan
2014-01-01
Background. Malaria still remains a public health problem in developing countries and changing environmental and climatic factors pose the biggest challenge in fighting against the scourge of malaria. Therefore, the study was designed to forecast malaria cases using climatic factors as predictors in Delhi, India. Methods. The total number of monthly cases of malaria slide positives occurring from January 2006 to December 2013 was taken from the register maintained at the malaria clinic at Rural Health Training Centre (RHTC), Najafgarh, Delhi. Climatic data of monthly mean rainfall, relative humidity, and mean maximum temperature were taken from Regional Meteorological Centre, Delhi. Expert modeler of SPSS ver. 21 was used for analyzing the time series data. Results. Autoregressive integrated moving average, ARIMA (0,1,1) (0,1,0)(12), was the best fit model and it could explain 72.5% variability in the time series data. Rainfall (P value = 0.004) and relative humidity (P value = 0.001) were found to be significant predictors for malaria transmission in the study area. Seasonal adjusted factor (SAF) for malaria cases shows peak during the months of August and September. Conclusion. ARIMA models of time series analysis is a simple and reliable tool for producing reliable forecasts for malaria in Delhi, India.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Timm, K.; Sparrow, E. B.; Pettit, E. C.; Trainor, S. F.; Taylor, K.
2014-12-01
Increasing temperatures are projected to have a positive effect on the length of Alaska's tourism season, but the natural attractions that tourism relies on, such as glaciers, wildlife, fish, or other natural resources, may change. In order to continue to derive benefits from these resources, nature-based tour operators may have to adapt to these changes, and communication is an essential, but poorly understood, component of the climate change adaptation process. The goal of this study was to determine how to provide useful climate change information to nature-based tour operators by answering the following questions: 1. What environmental changes do nature-based tour operators perceive? 2. How are nature-based tour operators responding to climate and environmental change? 3. What climate change information do nature-based tour operators need? To answer these questions, twenty-four nature-based tour operators representing 20 different small and medium sized businesses in Juneau, Alaska were interviewed. The results show that many of Juneau's nature-based tour operators are observing, responding to, and in some cases, actively planning for further changes in the environment. The types of responses tended to vary depending on the participants' certainty in climate change and the perceived risks to their organization. Using these two factors, this study proposes a framework to classify climate change responses for the purpose of generating meaningful information and communication processes that promote adaptation and build adaptive capacity. During the course of the study, several other valuable lessons were learned about communicating about adaptation. The results of this study demonstrate that science communication research has an important place in the practice of promoting and fostering climate change adaptation. While the focus of this study was tour operators, the lessons learned may be valuable to other organizations striving to engage unique groups in climate change adaptation planning efforts and to social scientists trying to understanding of the role of communication in climate change adaptation.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kim, Y.; Chung, E. S.
2014-12-01
This study suggests a robust prioritization framework for climate change adaptation strategies under multiple climate change scenarios with a case study of selecting sites for reusing treated wastewater (TWW) in a Korean urban watershed. The framework utilizes various multi-criteria decision making techniques, including the VIKOR method and the Shannon entropy-based weights. In this case study, the sustainability of TWW use is quantified with indicator-based approaches with the DPSIR framework, which considers both hydro-environmental and socio-economic aspects of the watershed management. Under the various climate change scenarios, the hydro-environmental responses to reusing TWW in potential alternative sub-watersheds are determined using the Hydrologic Simulation Program in Fortran (HSPF). The socio-economic indicators are obtained from the statistical databases. Sustainability scores for multiple scenarios are estimated individually and then integrated with the proposed approach. At last, the suggested framework allows us to prioritize adaptation strategies in a robust manner with varying levels of compromise between utility-based and regret-based strategies.
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De Munck, Cécile S; Hutchings, Tony R; Moffat, Andy J
2008-10-01
This study examines how pollutant linkage of contaminants will be influenced by predicted changes in precipitation and subsequent rainfall erosion of soils and spoils in the United Kingdom during the 21st century. Two contrasting regional climates were used in conjunction with 2 extreme emissions scenarios (low and high greenhouse gas emissions) to run the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation 2 (RUSLE2) model for a case study that represents a high risk of pollutant linkage through water erosion. Results for the 2 scenarios and the 2 regions showed a significant and gradual increase in erosion rates with time as a consequence of climate change, by up to 32% for the southwest and 6.6% for the southeast regions by the 2080s. Revegetation of the site showed a dramatic reduction in predicted future amounts of sediment production and subsequent contaminant movement, well below existing levels. Limitations and future improvements of the methodology are discussed.
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Coleman, E; Doddakula, K; Meeke, R; Marshall, C; Jahangir, S; Hinchion, J
2010-03-01
Cases of accidental profound hypothermia occur most frequently in cold, northern climates. We describe an atypical case, occurring in a temperate climate, where a hypothermic cardiac-arrested patient was successfully resuscitated using extracorporeal circulation (ECC).
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Sautier, Marion; Piquet, Mathilde; Duru, Michel; Martin-Clouaire, Roger
2017-05-15
Research is expected to produce knowledge, methods and tools to enhance stakeholders' adaptive capacity by helping them to anticipate and cope with the effects of climate change at their own level. Farmers face substantial challenges from climate change, from changes in the average temperatures and the precipitation regime to an increased variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Such changes can have dramatic consequences for many types of agricultural production systems such as grassland-based livestock systems for which climate change influences the seasonality and productivity of fodder production. We present a participatory design method called FARMORE (FARM-Oriented REdesign) that allows farmers to design and evaluate adaptations of livestock systems to future climatic conditions. It explicitly considers three climate features in the design and evaluation processes: climate change, climate variability and the limited predictability of weather. FARMORE consists of a sequence of three workshops for which a pre-existing game-like platform was adapted. Various year-round forage production and animal feeding requirements must be assembled by participants with a computerized support system. In workshop 1, farmers aim to produce a configuration that satisfies an average future weather scenario. They refine or revise the previous configuration by considering a sample of the between-year variability of weather in workshop 2. In workshop 3, they explicitly take the limited predictability of weather into account. We present the practical aspects of the method based on four case studies involving twelve farmers from Aveyron (France), and illustrate it through an in-depth description of one of these case studies with three dairy farmers. The case studies shows and discusses how workshop sequencing (1) supports a design process that progressively accommodates complexity of real management contexts by enlarging considerations of climate change to climate variability and low weather predictability, and (2) increases the credibility and salience of the design method. Further enhancements of the method are outlined, especially the selection of pertinent weather scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Climate Variability, Climate Change and Social Vulnerability in the Semi-arid Tropics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ribot, Jesse C.; Rocha Magalhaes, Antonio; Panagides, Stahis
1996-06-01
Climate changes can trigger events that lead to mass migration, hunger, and even famine. Rather than focus on the impacts that result from climatic fluctuations, the authors look at the underlying conditions that cause social vulnerability. Once we understand why individuals, households, nations, and regions are vulnerable, and how they have buffered themselves against climatic and environmental shifts, then present and future vulnerability can be redressed. By using case studies from across the globe, the authors explore past experiences with climate variability, and the likely effects of--and the possible policy responses to--the types of climatic events that global warming might bring.
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Testing the generality of a trophic-cascade model for plague
Collinge, S.K.; Johnson, W.C.; Ray, C.; Matchett, R.; Grensten, J.; Cully, J.F.; Gage, K.L.; Kosoy, M.Y.; Loye, J.E.; Martin, A.P.
2005-01-01
Climate may affect the dynamics of infectious diseases by shifting pathogen, vector, or host species abundance, population dynamics, or community interactions. Black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) are highly susceptible to plague, yet little is known about factors that influence the dynamics of plague epizootics in prairie dogs. We investigated temporal patterns of plague occurrence in black-tailed prairie dogs to assess the generality of links between climate and plague occurrence found in previous analyses of human plague cases. We examined long-term data on climate and plague occurrence in prairie dog colonies within two study areas. Multiple regression analyses revealed that plague occurrence in prairie dogs was not associated with climatic variables in our Colorado study area. In contrast, plague occurrence was strongly associated with climatic variables in our Montana study area. The models with most support included a positive association with precipitation in April-July of the previous year, in addition to a positive association with the number of "warm" days and a negative association with the number of "hot" days in the same year as reported plague events. We conclude that the timing and magnitude of precipitation and temperature may affect plague occurrence in some geographic areas. The best climatic predictors of plague occurrence in prairie dogs within our Montana study area are quite similar to the best climatic predictors of human plague cases in the southwestern United States. This correspondence across regions and species suggests support for a (temperature-modulated) trophic-cascade model for plague, including climatic effects on rodent abundance, flea abundance, and pathogen transmission, at least in regions that experience strong climatic signals. ?? 2005 EcoHealth Journal Consortium.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Friday, E.; Barron, E. J.; Elfring, C.; Geller, L.
2002-12-01
When a major East Coast snowstorm was forecast during the winter of 2001, people began preparing - both the public and the decision-makers responsible for public services. There was an air of urgency, heightened because just the previous year the region had been hit hard by a storm of unpredicted strength. But this time, the storm never materialized and people were left wondering what went "wrong" with the forecast. Did something go wrong or did forecasters just fail to communicate their information in an effective way? Did they convey a sense of the likelihood of the event and keep people up to date as information changed? In the summer of 2001, the National Academies' Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate hosted a workshop designed to explore the communication of uncertainty in weather and climate information. Workshop participants examined five case studies that were chosen to illustrate a range of forecast timescales and certainty levels. The cases were: Red River Flood, Grand Forks, April 1997; East Coast Winter Storm, March 2001; Oklahoma-Kansas Tornado Outbreak, May 3, 1999; El Nino 1997-1998, and Climate Change Science, a report issued in 2001. In each of these cases, participants examined who said what, when, to whom, how, and with what effect. The last two cases specifically address climate-related topics. This paper summarizes the final workshop report (Communicating Uncertainties in Weather and Climate Information: Summary of a Workshop, NRC 2002), including an overview of the five cases and lessons learned about communicating uncertainties in weather and climate forecasts. Among other findings, the report stresses that communication and appropriate dissemination of information, including information about uncertainty in the forecasts and the forecaster's confidence in the product, should be an integral, ongoing part of the forecasting process, not an afterthought. Explaining uncertainty should be an integral part of what weather and climate forecasters do and is essential to delivering accurate and useful information.
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Climate change, water rights, and water supply: The case of irrigated agriculture in Idaho
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Xu, Wenchao; Lowe, Scott E.; Adams, Richard M.
2014-12-01
We conduct a hedonic analysis to estimate the response of agricultural land use to water supply information under the Prior Appropriation Doctrine by using Idaho as a case study. Our analysis includes long-term climate (weather) trends and water supply conditions as well as seasonal water supply forecasts. A farm-level panel data set, which accounts for the priority effects of water rights and controls for diversified crop mixes and rotation practices, is used. Our results indicate that farmers respond to the long-term surface and ground water conditions as well as to the seasonal water supply variations. Climate change-induced variations in climate and water supply conditions could lead to substantial damages to irrigated agriculture. We project substantial losses (up to 32%) of the average crop revenue for major agricultural areas under future climate scenarios in Idaho. Finally, farmers demonstrate significantly varied responses given their water rights priorities, which imply that the distributional impact of climate change is sensitive to institutions such as the Prior Appropriation Doctrine.
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Brazier, Isabel; Kelman, Mark; Ward, Michael P
2014-08-29
The aim of this study was to describe the association between landscape and climate factors and the occurrence of tick paralysis cases in dogs and cats reported by veterinarians in Australia. Data were collated based on postcode of residence of the animal and the corresponding landscape (landcover and elevation) and climate (precipitation, temperature) information was derived. During the study period (October 2010-December 2012), a total of 5560 cases (4235 [76%] canine and 1325 [24%] feline cases) were reported from 341 postcodes, mostly along the eastern seaboard of Australia and from the states of New South Wales and Queensland. Significantly more cases were reported from postcodes which contained areas of broadleaved, evergreen tree coverage (P=0.0019); broadleaved, deciduous open tree coverage (P=0.0416); and water bodies (P=0.0394). Significantly fewer tick paralysis cases were reported from postcodes which contained areas of sparse herbaceous or sparse shrub coverage (P=0.0297) and areas that were cultivated and managed (P=0.0005). No significant (P=0.6998) correlation between number of tick paralysis cases reported per postcode and elevation was found. Strong positive correlations were found between number of cases reported per postcode and the annual minimum (rSP=0.9552, P<0.0001) and maximum (rSP=0.9075; P=0.0001) precipitation. Correlations between reported tick paralysis cases and temperature variables were much weaker than for precipitation, rSP<0.23. For maximum temperature, the strongest correlation between cases was found in winter (rSP=0.1877; P=0.0005) and for minimum temperature in autumn (rSP=0.2289: P<0.0001). Study findings suggest that tick paralysis cases are more likely to occur and be reported in certain eco-climatic zones, such as those with higher rainfall and containing tree cover and areas of water. Veterinarians and pet owners in these zones should be particularly alert for tick paralysis cases to maximize the benefits of early treatment, and to be vigilant to use chemical prophylaxis to reduce the risk of tick parasitism. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Robert C. Venette
2013-01-01
Climate change may alter the distribution and activity of native and alien pathogens that infect trees and, in severe cases, cause tree death. In this study, potential future changes in climate suitability are investigated for three forest pathogens that occur in western North America: the native Arceuthobium tsugense subsp tsugense...
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Lu Hao; Cen Pan; Peilong Liu; Decheng Zhou; Liangxia Zhang; Zhe Xiong; Yongqiang Liu; Ge Sun
2016-01-01
Accurate detection and quantification of vegetation dynamics and drivers of observed climatic and anthropogenic change in space and time is fundamental for our understanding of the atmosphereâbiosphere interactions at local and global scales. This case study examined the coupled spatial patterns of vegetation dynamics and climatic variabilities during the past...
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You Are (Not) Welcome Here: The Climate for LGBT Students in an Adult Literacy Program
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Grissett, Judy Orton; Kaufmann, Jodi; Greenberg, Daphne; Hilton, Krista
2016-01-01
Although prior research has indicated a relationship between educational climate and educational outcomes, there is a lack of research in this area in adult literacy programs. The purpose of this qualitative case study was to assess the actual and perceived educational climate for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transsexual (LGBT) students at an adult…
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Exploring the Effects of Art-Making on the Racial Climate of a Multicultural Classroom
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Davis, Samantha
2016-01-01
The purpose of this case study was to explore the effects of art-making on the racial climate of a multicultural classroom of 11th graders. Critical Race Theory and Critical Race Methodology laid the foundation for approaching the topic of racial climate in an academic setting. An emphasis was placed on analyzing the developments of the…
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Blom-Zandstra, Margaretha; Paulissen, Maurice; Agricola, Herman; Schaap, Ben
2009-11-01
Climate change will place increasing pressure on the functioning of agricultural and natural areas in the Netherlands. Strategies to adapt these areas to stress are likely to require changes in landscape structure and management. In densely populated countries such as the Netherlands, the increased pressure of climate change on agricultural and natural areas will inevitably lead, through the necessity of spatial adaptation measures, to spatial conflicts between the sectors of agriculture and nature. An integrated approach to climate change adaptation may therefore be beneficial in limiting such sectoral conflicts. We explored the conflicting and synergistic properties of different climate adaptation strategies for agricultural and natural environments in the Netherlands. To estimate the feasibility and effectiveness of the strategies, we focussed on three case study regions with contrasting landscape structural, natural and agricultural characteristics. For each region, we estimated the expected climate-related threats and associated trade-offs for arable farming and natural areas for 2040. We describe a number of spatial and integrated adaptation strategies to mitigate these threats. Formulating adaptation strategies requires consultation of different stakeholders and deliberation between different interests. We discuss some trade-offs involved in this decision-making.
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Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters.
Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Morse, Andrew P; Caminade, Cyril; Upadhyayula, Suryanaryana Murty
2017-08-09
For the past ten years, the number of dengue cases has gradually increased in India. Dengue is driven by complex interactions among host, vector and virus that are influenced by climatic factors. In the present study, we focused on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and its variability in different climatic zones of India. The EIP was calculated by using daily and monthly mean temperatures for the states of Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Kerala. Among the studied states, a faster/low EIP in Kerala (8-15 days at 30.8 and 23.4 °C) and a generally slower/high EIP in Punjab (5.6-96.5 days at 35 and 0 °C) were simulated with daily temperatures. EIPs were calculated for different seasons, and Kerala showed the lowest EIP during the monsoon period. In addition, a significant association between dengue cases and precipitation was also observed. The results suggest that temperature is important in virus development in different climatic regions and may be useful in understanding spatio-temporal variations in dengue risk. Climate-based disease forecasting models in India should be refined and tailored for different climatic zones, instead of use of a standard model.
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Dengue burden in India: recent trends and importance of climatic parameters
Mutheneni, Srinivasa Rao; Morse, Andrew P; Caminade, Cyril; Upadhyayula, Suryanaryana Murty
2017-01-01
For the past ten years, the number of dengue cases has gradually increased in India. Dengue is driven by complex interactions among host, vector and virus that are influenced by climatic factors. In the present study, we focused on the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) and its variability in different climatic zones of India. The EIP was calculated by using daily and monthly mean temperatures for the states of Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Rajasthan and Kerala. Among the studied states, a faster/low EIP in Kerala (8–15 days at 30.8 and 23.4 °C) and a generally slower/high EIP in Punjab (5.6–96.5 days at 35 and 0 °C) were simulated with daily temperatures. EIPs were calculated for different seasons, and Kerala showed the lowest EIP during the monsoon period. In addition, a significant association between dengue cases and precipitation was also observed. The results suggest that temperature is important in virus development in different climatic regions and may be useful in understanding spatio-temporal variations in dengue risk. Climate-based disease forecasting models in India should be refined and tailored for different climatic zones, instead of use of a standard model. PMID:28790459
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Australian climate extremes at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
King, Andrew D.; Karoly, David J.; Henley, Benjamin J.
2017-06-01
To avoid more severe impacts from climate change, there is international agreement to strive to limit warming to below 1.5 °C. However, there is a lack of literature assessing climate change at 1.5 °C and the potential benefits in terms of reduced frequency of extreme events. Here, we demonstrate that existing model simulations provide a basis for rapid and rigorous analysis of the effects of different levels of warming on large-scale climate extremes, using Australia as a case study. We show that limiting warming to 1.5 °C, relative to 2 °C, would perceptibly reduce the frequency of extreme heat events in Australia. The Australian continent experiences a variety of high-impact climate extremes that result in loss of life, and economic and environmental damage. Events similar to the record-hot summer of 2012-2013 and warm seas associated with bleaching of the Great Barrier Reef in 2016 would be substantially less likely, by about 25% in both cases, if warming is kept to lower levels. The benefits of limiting warming on hydrometeorological extremes are less clear. This study provides a framework for analysing climate extremes at 1.5 °C global warming.
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Organizational climate and hospital nurses' caring practices: a mixed-methods study.
Roch, Geneviève; Dubois, Carl-Ardy; Clarke, Sean P
2014-06-01
Organizational climate in healthcare settings influences patient outcomes, but its effect on nursing care delivery remains poorly understood. In this mixed-methods study, nurse surveys (N = 292) were combined with a qualitative case study of 15 direct-care registered nurses (RNs), nursing personnel, and managers. Organizational climate explained 11% of the variation in RNs' reported frequency of caring practices. Qualitative data suggested that caring practices were affected by the interplay of organizational climate dimensions with patients and nurses characteristics. Workload intensity and role ambiguity led RNs to leave many caring practices to practical nurses and assistive personnel. Systemic interventions are needed to improve organizational climate and to support RNs' involvement in a full range of caring practices. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Larson, Barbara A.
2012-01-01
The case study documented one large, multicampus community college's progress in implementing sustainability goals outlined in the American College and University Presidents' Climate Commitment (ACUPCC). The case study examined the role of branch-campus presidents and the college president in institutionalizing sustainability. Responses…
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Modeling and projection of dengue fever cases in Guangzhou based on variation of weather factors.
Li, Chenlu; Wang, Xiaofeng; Wu, Xiaoxu; Liu, Jianing; Ji, Duoying; Du, Juan
2017-12-15
Dengue fever is one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases, especially in Guangzhou, China. Dengue viruses and their vectors Aedes albopictus are sensitive to climate change primarily in relation to weather factors. Previous research has mainly focused on identifying the relationship between climate factors and dengue cases, or developing dengue case models with some non-climate factors. However, there has been little research addressing the modeling and projection of dengue cases only from the perspective of climate change. This study considered this topic using long time series data (1998-2014). First, sensitive weather factors were identified through meta-analysis that included literature review screening, lagged analysis, and collinear analysis. Then, key factors that included monthly average temperature at a lag of two months, and monthly average relative humidity and monthly average precipitation at lags of three months were determined. Second, time series Poisson analysis was used with the generalized additive model approach to develop a dengue model based on key weather factors for January 1998 to December 2012. Data from January 2013 to July 2014 were used to validate that the model was reliable and reasonable. Finally, future weather data (January 2020 to December 2070) were input into the model to project the occurrence of dengue cases under different climate scenarios (RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5). Longer time series analysis and scientifically selected weather variables were used to develop a dengue model to ensure reliability. The projections suggested that seasonal disease control (especially in summer and fall) and mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions could help reduce the incidence of dengue fever. The results of this study hope to provide a scientifically theoretical basis for the prevention and control of dengue fever in Guangzhou. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Park, Hyoung Keun; Bae, Sang Rak; Kim, Satbyul E; Choi, Woo Suk; Paick, Sung Hyun; Ho, Kim; Kim, Hyeong Gon; Lho, Yong Soo
2015-02-01
The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of seasonal variation and climate parameters on urinary tract stone attack and investigate whether stone attack is increased sharply at a specific point. Nationwide data of total urinary tract stone attack numbers per month between January 2006 and December 2010 were obtained from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. The effects of climatic factors on monthly urinary stone attack were assessed using auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) regression method. A total of 1,702,913 stone attack cases were identified. Mean monthly and monthly average daily urinary stone attack cases were 28,382 ± 2,760 and 933 ± 85, respectively. The stone attack showed seasonal trends of sharp incline in June, a peak plateau from July to September, and a sharp decline after September. The correlation analysis showed that ambient temperature (r = 0.557, p < 0.001) and relative humidity (r = 0.513, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with urinary stone attack cases. However, after adjustment for trends and seasonality, ambient temperature was the only climate factor associated with the stone attack cases in ARIMA regression test (p = 0.04). Threshold temperature was estimated as 18.4 °C. Risk of urinary stone attack significantly increases 1.71% (1.02-2.41 %, 95% confidence intervals) with a 1 °C increase of ambient temperature above the threshold point. In conclusion, monthly urinary stone attack cases were changed according to seasonal variation. Among the climates variables, only temperature had consistent association with stone attack and when the temperature is over 18.4 °C, urinary stone attack would be increased sharply.
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Long-Term and Seasonal Dynamics of Dengue in Iquitos, Peru
Stoddard, Steven T.; Wearing, Helen J.; Reiner, Robert C.; Morrison, Amy C.; Astete, Helvio; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Alvarez, Carlos; Ramal-Asayag, Cesar; Sihuincha, Moises; Rocha, Claudio; Halsey, Eric S.; Scott, Thomas W.; Kochel, Tadeusz J.; Forshey, Brett M.
2014-01-01
Introduction Long-term disease surveillance data provide a basis for studying drivers of pathogen transmission dynamics. Dengue is a mosquito-borne disease caused by four distinct, but related, viruses (DENV-1-4) that potentially affect over half the world's population. Dengue incidence varies seasonally and on longer time scales, presumably driven by the interaction of climate and host susceptibility. Precise understanding of dengue dynamics is constrained, however, by the relative paucity of laboratory-confirmed longitudinal data. Methods We studied 10 years (2000–2010) of laboratory-confirmed, clinic-based surveillance data collected in Iquitos, Peru. We characterized inter and intra-annual patterns of dengue dynamics on a weekly time scale using wavelet analysis. We explored the relationships of case counts to climatic variables with cross-correlation maps on annual and trimester bases. Findings Transmission was dominated by single serotypes, first DENV-3 (2001–2007) then DENV-4 (2008–2010). After 2003, incidence fluctuated inter-annually with outbreaks usually occurring between October and April. We detected a strong positive autocorrelation in case counts at a lag of ∼70 weeks, indicating a shift in the timing of peak incidence year-to-year. All climatic variables showed modest seasonality and correlated weakly with the number of reported dengue cases across a range of time lags. Cases were reduced after citywide insecticide fumigation if conducted early in the transmission season. Conclusions Dengue case counts peaked seasonally despite limited intra-annual variation in climate conditions. Contrary to expectations for this mosquito-borne disease, no climatic variable considered exhibited a strong relationship with transmission. Vector control operations did, however, appear to have a significant impact on transmission some years. Our results indicate that a complicated interplay of factors underlie DENV transmission in contexts such as Iquitos. PMID:25033412
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Cultural responses to climate change during the late Holocene.
deMenocal, P B
2001-04-27
Modern complex societies exhibit marked resilience to interannual-to- decadal droughts, but cultural responses to multidecadal-to-multicentury droughts can only be addressed by integrating detailed archaeological and paleoclimatic records. Four case studies drawn from New and Old World civilizations document societal responses to prolonged drought, including population dislocations, urban abandonment, and state collapse. Further study of past cultural adaptations to persistent climate change may provide valuable perspective on possible responses of modern societies to future climate change.
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McTavish, Rebecca K; Richard, Lucie; McArthur, Eric; Shariff, Salimah Z; Acedillo, Rey; Parikh, Chirag R; Wald, Ron; Wilk, Piotr; Garg, Amit X
2018-02-01
An association between high heat and acute kidney injury (AKI) has been reported in warm climates. However, whether this association generalizes to a northern climate, with more variable temperatures, is unknown. Matched case-control study. Our study focused on older adults (mean age, 80 years) in the northern climate of Ontario, Canada. 52,913 case patients who had a hospital encounter with AKI in April through September 2005 to 2012 were matched with 174,222 controls for exact date, age, sex, rural residence, income, and history of chronic kidney disease. Heat periods were defined as 3 consecutive days exceeding the 95th percentile of area-specific maximum temperature. Hospital encounter (inpatient admission or emergency department visit) with a diagnosis of AKI. ORs (95% CIs) were used to assess the association between heat periods and AKI. To quantify the effect in absolute terms, we multiplied the population incidence rate of AKI in the absence of heat periods by our adjusted OR (an approximate of relative risk). Heat periods were significantly associated with higher risk for AKI (adjusted OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 1.00-1.23). Heat periods in absolute terms were associated with an additional 182 cases of AKI per 100,000 person-years during the warm season. We did not know how long persons were outside or if they had access to air conditioning. In a northern climate, periods of higher environmental heat were associated with a modestly higher risk for hospital encounter with AKI among older adults. Copyright © 2017 National Kidney Foundation, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Developing a Process for Sustained Climate Assessment in the US Southwest Region
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Duncan, B.; Rick, U. K.; McNie, E. C.
2017-12-01
Climate information needs often vary across states, regions, and sectors. While a national assessment provides foundational guidance about the science and impacts of climate change, there is also value in an ongoing climate assessment process with a more targeted regional geographic scale and sectoral focus. Such a process could provide timely and relevant climate information that is sometimes more detailed than what can be included in a national assessment, while also providing a foundation of knowledge and relationships that can be drawn on in larger-scale assessment processes. In the Sustained Climate Assessment in the Southwest project, researchers are investigating opportunities for sustained assessment in the US Southwest National Climate Assessment (NCA) region - an area that consists of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. This work is focused on identifying key elements of an ongoing climate assessment process for the region in collaboration with climate service providers and users, with the goal of connecting providers and users to increase access to information and understanding of climate impacts in decision-making contexts. It is focused on four key sectors that represent a range of existing capacity in the region: water, oceans and coasts, agriculture, and transportation. Recommendations for an ongoing assessment process may vary by sector - a reflection of the capacity and opportunity associated with each. In this presentation, we will share case studies of particularly useful or successful existing assessment activities and identify common characteristics across the case studies. We will also share preliminary recommendations for a regional sustained climate assessment process that draws on the broad existing capacity for climate assessment in the region and complements national-scale assessment processes.
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Urban Climate Map System for Dutch spatial planning
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ren, Chao; Spit, Tejo; Lenzholzer, Sanda; Yim, Hung Lam Steve; Heusinkveld, Bert; van Hove, Bert; Chen, Liang; Kupski, Sebastian; Burghardt, René; Katzschner, Lutz
2012-08-01
Facing climate change and global warming, outdoor climatic environment is an important consideration factor for planners and policy makers because improving it can greatly contribute to achieve citizen's thermal comfort and create a better urban living quality for adaptation. Thus, the climatic information must be assessed systematically and applied strategically into the planning process. This paper presents a tool named Urban Climate Map System (UCMS) that has proven capable of helping compact cities to incorporate climate effects in planning processes in a systematic way. UCMS is developed and presented in a Geographic Information System (GIS) platform in which the lessons learned and experience gained from interdisciplinary studies can be included. The methodology of UCMS of compact cities, the construction procedure, and the basic input factors - including the natural climate resources and planning data - are described. Some literatures that shed light on the applicability of UMCS are reported. The Municipality of Arnhem is one of Dutch compact urban areas and still under fast urban development and urban renewal. There is an urgent need for local planners and policy makers to protect local climate and open landscape resources and make climate change adaptation in urban construction. Thus, Arnhem is chosen to carry out a case study of UCMS. Although it is the first work of Urban Climatic Mapping in The Netherlands, it serves as a useful climatic information platform to local planners and policy makers for their daily on-going works. We attempt to use a quick method to collect available climatic and planning data and create an information platform for planning use. It relies mostly on literature and theoretical understanding that has been well practiced elsewhere. The effort here is to synergize the established understanding for a case at hand and demonstrate how useful guidance can still be made for planners and policy makers.
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Put a Frame on It: Contextualizing Climate Change for Museum Visitors
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Canning, Katharine
Public opinion polls continue to show that Americans are divided---particularly along political and ideological lines---on whether climate change is real and warrants immediate action. Those in the natural and social sciences have recognized that effective communication is key to closing the gap that exists between scientific and public understanding on this issue. A body of social science research on climate change communication has emerged within the last decade. This field has identified strategies for climate change communicators and educators, emphasizing the importance of framing climate change issues in ways that help it resonate with a wider range of public concerns and values in order to develop a shared belief regarding the necessity of action. Museum exhibits and programs on climate change that were developed within the last five years are likely to have benefitted from this body of work. This qualitative research seeks to examine and analyze the various ways museums in the United States are communicating about climate change related issues to the public. Three case studies of museum exhibits on climate change issues were examined. The scope and purpose of climate change communication in museums, the specific messages that museums are choosing to communicate, and how those messages are being framed for public audiences were explored through these case studies. The findings suggest that museums are considering their audience when framing messages about climate change and have used work from the climate change communication field to inform message development. In particular, museums are making climate change issues more relevant by emphasizing social, economic, and human health concerns, and are considering strategies to counteract fear-fatigue and empower visitors to take action.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Drury, Sara A. Mehltretter
2015-01-01
The author argues that deliberation is an innovative method for teaching communication skills, particularly group communication, in the undergraduate science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) curriculum. A case study using a deliberation activity on global climate change in an introductory biology course demonstrates how deliberative…
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cook, J.; Jacobs, P.; Nuccitelli, D.
2014-12-01
Laypeople use expert opinion as a mental shortcut to form views on complex scientific issues. This heuristic is particularly relevant in the case of climate change, where perception of consensus is one of the main predictors of public support for climate action. A low public perception of consensus (around 60% compared to the actual 97% consensus) is a significant stumbling block to meaningful climate action, underscoring the importance of closing the "consensus gap". However, some scientists question the efficacy or appropriateness of emphasizing consensus in climate communication. I'll summarize the social science research examining the importance and effectiveness of consensus messaging. I'll also present several case studies of consensus messaging employed by the team of communicators at the Skeptical Science website.
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Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Wang, Tongli; Andre, Konrad; Konnert, Monika; Lexer, Manfred J.; Matulla, Christoph; Schueler, Silvio
2015-01-01
Identifying populations within tree species potentially adapted to future climatic conditions is an important requirement for reforestation and assisted migration programmes. Such populations can be identified either by empirical response functions based on correlations of quantitative traits with climate variables or by climate envelope models that compare the climate of seed sources and potential growing areas. In the present study, we analyzed the intraspecific variation in climate growth response of Douglas-fir planted within the non-analogous climate conditions of Central and continental Europe. With data from 50 common garden trials, we developed Universal Response Functions (URF) for tree height and mean basal area and compared the growth performance of the selected best performing populations with that of populations identified through a climate envelope approach. Climate variables of the trial location were found to be stronger predictors of growth performance than climate variables of the population origin. Although the precipitation regime of the population sources varied strongly none of the precipitation related climate variables of population origin was found to be significant within the models. Overall, the URFs explained more than 88% of variation in growth performance. Populations identified by the URF models originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of Washington and Oregon and show significantly higher growth performance than populations identified by the climate envelope approach under both current and climate change scenarios. The URFs predict decreasing growth performance at low and middle elevations of the case study area, but increasing growth performance on high elevation sites. Our analysis suggests that population recommendations based on empirical approaches should be preferred and population selections by climate envelope models without considering climatic constrains of growth performance should be carefully appraised before transferring populations to planting locations with novel or dissimilar climate. PMID:26288363
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Climate change induced risk analysis of Dar es Salaam city (Tanzania)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Topa, Maria Elena; Herslund, Lise; Cavan, Gina; Printz, Andreas; Simonis, Ingo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Hellevik, Siri; Johns, Regina; Kibassa, Deusdedit; Kweka, Clara; Magina, Fredrick; Mangula, Alpha; Mbuya, Elinorata; Uhinga, Guido; Kassenga, Gabriel; Kyessi, Alphonce; Shemdoe, Riziki; Kombe, Wilbard
2013-04-01
CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. The main objective of CLUVA is to develop context-centered methods and knowledge to be applied to African cities to assess vulnerabilities and increase knowledge on managing climate related risks. The project estimates the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale and downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate specific threats to selected African test cities. These are mainly from floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; urban green structures and ecosystem services; urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. The multi-scale and multi-disciplinary qualitative, quantitative and probabilistic approach of CLUVA is currently being applied to selected African test cities (Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania; Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso; St. Louis - Senegal). In particular, the poster will present preliminary findings for the Dar es Salaam case study. Dar es Salaam, which is Tanzania's largest coastal city, is exposed to floods, coastal erosion, droughts and heat waves, and highly vulnerable to impacts as a result of ineffective urban planning (about 70% unplanned settlements), poverty and lack of basic infrastructure (e.g. lack of or poor quality storm water drainage systems). Climate change could exacerbate the current situation increasing hazard-exposure alongside the impacts of development pressures which act to increase urban vulnerability for example because of informal (unregulated) urbanization. The CLUVA research team - composed of climate and environmental scientists, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists from both European and African institutions - has started to produce research outputs suitable for use in evidence-based planning activities in the case study cities through interdisciplinary methods and analysis. Climate change projections at 8 km resolution are ready for regions containing each of the case study cities; a preliminary hazard assessment for floods, droughts and heat waves has been performed, based on historical data; urban morphology and related green structures have been characterized; preliminary findings in social vulnerability provide insights how communities and households can resist and cope with, as well as recover from climate induced hazards; vulnerability of informal settlements to floods has been assessed for a case study area (Suna sub ward) and a GIS based identification of urban residential hotspots to flooding is completed. Furthermore, a set of indicators has been identified and the most relevant for Dar es Salaam has been selected by local stakeholders to identify particular vulnerable high risk areas and communities. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance system and its interface with climate risks and vulnerability has inter-alia suggested severe institutional deficits including over-centralized institutions for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation. A multi-risk framework considering climate-related hazards, and physical and social fragilities has been set up.
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Glisson, Charles; Dukes, Denzel; Green, Philip
2006-08-01
This study examines the effects of the Availability, Responsiveness, and Continuity (ARC) organizational intervention strategy on caseworker turnover, climate, and culture in a child welfare and juvenile justice system. Using a pre-post, randomized blocks, true experimental design, 10 urban and 16 rural case management teams were randomly assigned to either the ARC organizational intervention condition or to a control condition. The culture and climate of each case management team were assessed at baseline and again after the one-year organizational intervention was completed. In addition, caseworker turnover was assessed by identifying caseworkers on the sampled teams who quit their jobs during the year. Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM) analyses indicate that the ARC organizational intervention reduced the probability of caseworker turnover by two-thirds and improved organizational climate by reducing role conflict, role overload, emotional exhaustion, and depersonalization in both urban and rural case management teams. Organizational intervention strategies can be used to reduce staff turnover and improve organizational climates in urban and rural child welfare and juvenile justice systems. This is important because child welfare and juvenile justice systems in the U.S.A. are plagued by high turnover rates, and there is evidence that high staff turnover and poor organizational climates negatively affect service quality and outcomes in these systems.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Cook, Jeffrey J.
It is clear that interest groups are involved in the rulemaking process at the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), but it has been difficult to determine whether certain groups are more influential on outcomes. This debate persists because the literature illustrates that groups can be influential at discrete stages in the process, but the field rarely analyzes the entire rulemaking process. This uncertainty has spurred controversy regarding the EPA's recent climate change regulations. Therefore, this dissertation conducted three case studies of recent climate change regulations and addresses three questions. First, what, if any, strategies did interest groups use to influence the content of these climate change rules? Second, did these strategies translate into influence? Third, what can these climate change case studies tell us about the role of interest groups in other controversial rules at the EPA, and across the bureaucracy more broadly? Ultimately, I argue that interest group influence was generally balanced across each of the three case studies. These findings then serve as the basis to develop my Regulatory Spheres of Influence Framework. The framework illustrates that given the nature of EPA rulemakings, it is very difficult for one side either business or environmental to dominate the process in highly controversial rules. It is possible that these conclusions track to other controversial rules across the bureaucracy and I note that my framework could be applied in other contexts to test this assertion.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Maggioni, V.; Mousam, A.; Delamater, P. L.; Cash, B. A.; Quispe, A.
2015-12-01
Malaria is a public health threat to people globally leading to 198 million cases and 584,000 deaths annually. Outbreaks of vector borne diseases such as malaria can be significantly impacted by climate variables such as precipitation. For example, an increase in rainfall has the potential to create pools of water that can serve as breeding locations for mosquitos. Peru is a country that is currently controlling malaria, but has not been able to completely eliminate the disease. Despite the various initiatives in order to control malaria - including regional efforts to improve surveillance, early detection, prompt treatment, and vector management - malaria cases in Peru have risen between 2011 and 2014. The purpose of this study is to test the hypothesis that climate variability plays a fundamental role in malaria occurrence over a 12-year period (2003-2014) in Peru. When analyzing climate variability, it is important to obtain high-quality, high-resolution data for a time series long enough to draw conclusion about how climate variables have been and are changing. Remote sensing is a powerful tool for measuring and monitoring climate variables continuously in time and space. A widely used satellite-based precipitation product, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA), available globally since 1998, was used to obtain 3-hourly data with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25°. The precipitation data was linked to weekly (2003-2014) malaria cases collected by health centers and available at a district level all over Peru to investigate the relationship between precipitation and the seasonal and annual variations in malaria incidence. Further studies will incorporate additional climate variables such as temperature, humidity, soil moisture, and surface pressure from remote sensing data products and climate models. Ultimately, this research will help us to understand if climate variability impacts malaria incidence rates and to determine which regions of the country are most affected.
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Climate influence on dengue epidemics in Puerto Rico.
Jury, Mark R
2008-10-01
The variability of the insect-borne disease dengue in Puerto Rico was studied in relation to climatic variables in the period 1979-2005. Annual and monthly reported dengue cases were compared with precipitation and temperature data. Results show that the incidence of dengue in Puerto Rico was relatively constant over time despite global warming, possibly due to the offsetting effects of declining rainfall, improving health care and little change in population. Seasonal fluctuations of dengue were driven by rainfall increases from May to November. Year-to-year variability in dengue cases was positively related to temperature, but only weakly associated with local rainfall and an index of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Climatic conditions were mapped with respect to dengue cases and patterns in high and low years were compared. During epidemics, a low pressure system east of Florida draws warm humid air over the northwestern Caribbean. Long-term trends in past observed and future projected rainfall and temperatures were studied. Rainfall has declined slowly, but temperatures in the Caribbean are rising with the influence of global warming. Thus, dengue may increase in the future, and it will be necessary to anticipate dengue epidemics using climate forecasts, to reduce adverse health impacts.
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Incidence of Vector-borne Disease and Climate Change: A Study in Semi-arid Algeria
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Blakey, T.; Bounoua, L.
2012-12-01
Leishmaniases are among the most important emerging and resurging vector-borne diseases, second only to malaria in terms of the number of affected people. Leishmaniases are endemic in 88 countries worldwide and threaten about 350 million people (WHO, 2007). Since the first reported case of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ZCL) in Saida, Algeria in 1991, 1,275 cases have been recorded (Makhlouf & Houti, 2010) with the vast majority of study-area cases (99%) reported between the years of 2000 and 2009. An investigation of potential climatic indicators for the apparent shift in disease prevalence was conducted by comparing anomalies in the climate data specific to the local pathogen cycle. It was determined that long term climate trends have resulted in conditions that promote the prevalence of ZCL. Increased precipitation have resulted in greater vegetation and promoted host and vector population growth through a trophic cascade. Increased minimum temperatures have lengthened the annual duration of sandfly activity. Short term variations in maximum temperatures, however show a correlation with disease suppression in the subsequent years. These findings indicate a potential to forecast the risk of ZCL infection through models of the trophic cascade and sandfly population growth.
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A CASE STUDY OF ENVIRONMENTAL DATA MANAGEMENT
In order to support our ongoing research in watershed ecology and global climate change, we gather and analyze environmental data from several government agencies. This case study demonstrates a researcher’s approach to accessing, organizing, and using intersectoral data. T...
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Center for Corporate Climate Leadership Success Stories: Case Studies in Supply Chain Engagement
The case studies on this page provide successful examples of companies engaging with their supply chains to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, understand their shifting supply chain risks, and take advantage of market opportunities.
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An Emerging Ethic of Responsibility: A Case Study for Engaging the Public
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mandia, S. A.; Abraham, J. A.
2010-12-01
Recent trends in the public’s understanding of climate change have diverged from the broad, and well-documented consensus held by scientists. While the level of consensus regarding climate change among scientists is very high, the public remains deeply divided. Furthermore, a large percentage of the general public perceives that a serious debate exists within the science community on the basic theory of anthropogenic climate change. This disconnect between the scientific community and the general public should motivate scientists to take a more active role in public outreach. Recent stories in the media have increased the public’s resistance to climate change. Included here are Climategate, mistakes in the IPCC regarding Himalayan glacial melt, and other reports (inaccurately reported) about IPCC errors related to the sensitivity of the Amazon rainforest to a changing climate. Along with these stories, there has been a well-documented increase in activism by “skeptical scientists” and by “skeptical non-scientists” to engage the public with a goal of promoting the perception of a serious debate within the science community. Also during the past few years, a number of scientists who have taken an active role in educating the general public have come under political, scientific, and personal pressure. The resistance exerted on scientists who become public educators has caused many scientists to avoid outreach efforts. Here, the authors present a case study for a successful effort to engage the public on the issue of climate change. We utilized a number of media methods to cause a significant impact on the public discussion of global warming. In addition, the effort has begun to affect legislative processes within the United States and abroad. The authors present this case study to provide a roadmap to colleagues who wish to participate in public outreach.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, X.; Xiao, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, G.
2016-12-01
By offsetting one-third of anthropogenic carbon emissions, terrestrial carbon uptake mitigates atmospheric CO2 concentration and consequent global warming. However, the current global warming trend is inducing more climate extremes, which in turn cause large changes in terrestrial carbon uptake. Here we report the seasonal and regional anomalies of gross primary productivity (GPP) across the conterminous USA (CONUS) in response to two contrasting climate extremes: the cool and wet 2009 versus the warm and dry 2012. We used the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM, Xiao et al., 2006), MODIS images and NCEP/NARR climate data to estimate GPP from 2009-2014, and evaluated the VPM-predicted GPP with the estimated GPP from the CO2 eddy flux tower sites (24 sites). We analyze the correlation between the anomalies of the continental GPP and the anomalies of temperature and precipitation. The results show a substantial, negative GPP anomaly in 2009, in addition to the positive GPP anomaly in 2012, which was already reported in a previous study (Wolf et al., 2016). We also found that GPP anomalies of different climate regions in four seasons are controlled by either temperature or precipitation. Our study shows the robustness of the VPM to simulate GPP under the condition of climate extremes, and highlights the need of investigating the impacts of cooling events on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Our finding also suggests that there is no uniform pattern for terrestrial ecosystems responding to climate extremes, and that climate extremes should be studied in a case-by-case, location-based approach.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stewart, M. M.; Pratt, M.
2002-05-01
This paper examines the effectiveness of FM and digital radio in disseminating weather and climate information to remote rural populations in Niger and Uganda. In Niger, poor communications infrastructure necessitated the establishment of a basic radio system as a first step towards disseminating climate information. Dissemination via digital radio is limited, in this context, by lack of technical support and the difficulty of maintaining computer equipment in the hot and dusty climate. Community FM stations have supported a range of mitigation activities that reduced vulnerability in all sites studied. Digital radio proved a more effective tool for disseminating climate information in Uganda, where technical knowledge is more prevalent and infrastructure networks are stronger. The primary challenge in Uganda lies in maintaining equipment in remote locations and disseminating information to a wider audience by linking with FM radio. Climate and weather information is already demonstrating positive impacts on agricultural production in Uganda, health and civil society in Niger, and on vulnerability reduction in both countries. Radio,particularly FM, was an excellent medium for disseminating information to women, youth, and other hard to reach populations. Discussion will focus on recommendations for improving the effectiveness of both systems and for practically linking FM and digital dissemination systems for better communication of climate information. Implications of the case studies will also be discussed in the context of digital and FM radio as media for disseminating other types of scientific information.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
de Oliveira, G. S.; Cardoso, M. F.; Sanches, M. B.; Alexandre, F. F.
2014-12-01
Since the late 1980s a large number of numerical experiments with atmospheric general circulation models has been used to assess the impacts of deforestation on global and regional climate, and one of the main motivations is the Amazon rainforest. In the same way, in the last decade several studies have shown that a higher concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere could lead changes in climate in the Amazon region. In this study we performed new analyses to quantify how deforestation, fire and the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration may combine to affect the climate in Amazonia during this century. For the projection of land use was considered a spatially explicit land use scenario from Aguiar et al. (2013). The scenario was built using LuccME generic modelling framework and the potential of change considering the proximity to previously deforested areas and also spatial drivers (roads and protected areas). In order to quantify the response of Brazilian Earth System Model, with INLAND-IBIS surface model, to climate change, deforestation and forest fire we performed a suite of simulations in two main categories: 1) the model was running under historical and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration, and 2) the model was forced by the same configuration in 1 but also considering the effects of deforestation and forest fire in Amazon. In summary, the most important changes occur in the East/Northeast and South of the Amazonia and are more evident when are considered all effects (climate change, deforestation and fire). The results show warmer near-surface air temperature in all cases compared to the control case. This relative warming of the deforested land surface is consistent with the reduction in evapotranspiration, the lower leaf area and the lower surface roughness length. There is a reduction in annual precipitation in both cases mainly over eastern/northeastern Amazonia. The reduction in precipitation occurs mainly during the dry season (June-November) in both cases, and there is an increase in dry season length that is more evident when are considered all effects. In summary, we conclude that the synergistic combination of deforestation and climate change resulting from global warming may lead to important impacts that add considerably to the vulnerability of tropical forest ecosystems in the region.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tommasi, Desiree; Stock, Charles A.; Hobday, Alistair J.; Methot, Rick; Kaplan, Isaac C.; Eveson, J. Paige; Holsman, Kirstin; Miller, Timothy J.; Gaichas, Sarah; Gehlen, Marion; Pershing, Andrew; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Msadek, Rym; Delworth, Tom; Eakin, C. Mark; Haltuch, Melissa A.; Séférian, Roland; Spillman, Claire M.; Hartog, Jason R.; Siedlecki, Samantha; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Muhling, Barbara; Asch, Rebecca G.; Pinsky, Malin L.; Saba, Vincent S.; Kapnick, Sarah B.; Gaitan, Carlos F.; Rykaczewski, Ryan R.; Alexander, Michael A.; Xue, Yan; Pegion, Kathleen V.; Lynch, Patrick; Payne, Mark R.; Kristiansen, Trond; Lehodey, Patrick; Werner, Francisco E.
2017-03-01
Recent developments in global dynamical climate prediction systems have allowed for skillful predictions of climate variables relevant to living marine resources (LMRs) at a scale useful to understanding and managing LMRs. Such predictions present opportunities for improved LMR management and industry operations, as well as new research avenues in fisheries science. LMRs respond to climate variability via changes in physiology and behavior. For species and systems where climate-fisheries links are well established, forecasted LMR responses can lead to anticipatory and more effective decisions, benefitting both managers and stakeholders. Here, we provide an overview of climate prediction systems and advances in seasonal to decadal prediction of marine-resource relevant environmental variables. We then describe a range of climate-sensitive LMR decisions that can be taken at lead-times of months to decades, before highlighting a range of pioneering case studies using climate predictions to inform LMR decisions. The success of these case studies suggests that many additional applications are possible. Progress, however, is limited by observational and modeling challenges. Priority developments include strengthening of the mechanistic linkages between climate and marine resource responses, development of LMR models able to explicitly represent such responses, integration of climate driven LMR dynamics in the multi-driver context within which marine resources exist, and improved prediction of ecosystem-relevant variables at the fine regional scales at which most marine resource decisions are made. While there are fundamental limits to predictability, continued advances in these areas have considerable potential to make LMR managers and industry decision more resilient to climate variability and help sustain valuable resources. Concerted dialog between scientists, LMR managers and industry is essential to realizing this potential.
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The Organizational Decision Making Climate of Issues Management Programs: A Case Study.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wills, Sandra
A study examined the decision making climate of organizations that are using issues management and what type of model of issues management is followed--theorists have been attempting to define issues management since it began appearing 20 year ago. Subjects, 112 males and 30 females who were professionals working in the area of issues management…
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The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Office of Research and Development and U.S. EPA Region 6 conducted a study that evaluated the use of best management practices (BMPs) for stormwater management in an arid climate. The System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and An...
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Genetics of climate change adaptation.
Franks, Steven J; Hoffmann, Ary A
2012-01-01
The rapid rate of current global climate change is having strong effects on many species and, at least in some cases, is driving evolution, particularly when changes in conditions alter patterns of selection. Climate change thus provides an opportunity for the study of the genetic basis of adaptation. Such studies include a variety of observational and experimental approaches, such as sampling across clines, artificial evolution experiments, and resurrection studies. These approaches can be combined with a number of techniques in genetics and genomics, including association and mapping analyses, genome scans, and transcription profiling. Recent research has revealed a number of candidate genes potentially involved in climate change adaptation and has also illustrated that genetic regulatory networks and epigenetic effects may be particularly relevant for evolution driven by climate change. Although genetic and genomic data are rapidly accumulating, we still have much to learn about the genetic architecture of climate change adaptation.
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How does climate change cause extinction?
Cahill, Abigail E.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J.; Yeong Ryu, Hae; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B.; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J.
2013-01-01
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies. PMID:23075836
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How does climate change cause extinction?
Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J
2013-01-07
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Oni, A. F.
2017-12-01
Climate change exacerbates the environmental condition directly or indirectly. The frequency of climate-related disasters worldwide has been on the increase with their amplitude growing. The consequences of climate-related disaster are not limited to loss of lives and properties alone, but also serious repercussions on post-disaster reconstruction, as well as the cost implications for resilience of the infrastructure and natural environment. In developing countries, the low-income group whose income is below the world poverty line is the most vulnerable to the dangers of climate change. To worsen the case, the political and economic strength of these countries in terms of economic resources, technological development and urban planning management necessary for adapting to climate change are relatively weak. This study takes an inventory of the study area environment to establish its environmental state in terms of the extent of its vulnerability and economic strength. It was found that the study area is vulnerable being a coastal area and could be described as a slum settlement. Also, information on frequency and extent of flooding in association with change in temperature was collected. The results show that the frequency of flood occurrence within the period has increased and the increase was attributed to rise in sea level alongside a significant increase in temperature within the period of study. The implications of the findings on loss of lives/properties and continuous decline in the area economic strength as it relates to resilience of the area was discussed. The study suggests an effective urban land use management and control, as well as redevelopment of resilient infrastructure in the area. The study concludes that the increase in temperature for the period as an indicator of climate change causes rise in sea level and the subsequent increase in flooding occurrence. Key Words: Ecologically Fragile Zone, Climate Change, Flooding and Vulnerability.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goldman, G. T.; Phartiyal, P.; Mulvey, K.
2016-12-01
Federal government officials often rely on the research and advice of scientists to inform their decision making around climate change and other complex topics. Decision makers, however, are constrained by the time and accessibility needed to obtain and incorporate scientific information. At the same time, scientists have limited capacity and incentive to devote significant time to communicating their science to decision makers. The Union of Concerned Scientists has employed several strategies to produce policy-relevant scientific work and to facilitate engagement between scientists and decision makers across research areas. This talk will feature lessons learned and key strategies for science-informed decision making around climate change and other areas of the geosciences. Case studies will include conducting targeted sea level rise studies to inform rulemaking at federal agencies, bringing science to policy discussions on hydraulic fracturing, and leveraging the voice of the scientific community on specific policy proposals around climate change disclosure of companies. Recommendations and lessons learned for producing policy-relevant science and effectively communicating it with decision makers will be offered.
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Emergency Response and Long Term Planning: Two sides of the Coin for Managing Water Resources
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Metchis, K.; Beller-Simms, N.
2014-12-01
As projected by the US National Climate Assessment and the IPCC, extreme climate and weather events are occurring more frequently and with more intensity across the nation. Communities - and the water resource managers that serve them - are facing difficult choices to increase emergency preparedness, recover from costly impacts, and increase long term resilience. The presentation is based on a recent set of case studies about what happened in six communities that experienced one or more extreme events, focusing on water resource management. Two of the case studies will be presented, revealing that building climate resilience is not just about long term planning - it is also about taking the steps to be prepared for - and to be able to recover from - emergency events. The results of this study have implications for educating local officials on ways to think about resilience to balance both long-term and short-term preparedness.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.
2018-01-01
Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kunkel, K.; Dissen, J.; Easterling, D. R.; Kulkarni, A.; Akhtar, F. H.; Hayhoe, K.; Stoner, A. M. K.; Swaminathan, R.; Thrasher, B. L.
2017-12-01
s part of the Department of State U.S.-India Partnership for Climate Resilience (PCR), scientists from NOAA NCEI, CICS-NC, Texas Tech University (TTU), Stanford University (SU), and the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) held a workshop at IITM in Pune, India during 7-9 March 2017 on the development, techniques and applications of downscaled climate projections. Workshop participants from TTU, SU, and IITM presented state-of-the-art climate downscaling techniques using the ARRM method, NASA NEX climate products, CORDEX-South Asia and analysis tools for resilience planning and sustainable development. PCR collaborators in attendance included Indian practitioners, researchers and other NGO including the WRI Partnership for Resilience and Preparedness (PREP), The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), and NIH. The scientific techniques were provided to workshop participants in a software package written in R by TTU scientists and several sessions were devoted to hands-on experience with the software package. The workshop further examined case studies on the use of downscaled climate data for decision making in a range of sectors, including human health, agriculture, and water resources management as well as to inform the development of the India State Action Plans. This talk will discuss key outcomes including information needs for downscaling climate projections, importance of QA/QC of the data, key findings from select case studies, and the importance of collaborations and partnerships to apply downscaling projections to help inform the development of the India State Action Plans.
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Munyuli, Mb Théodore; Kavuvu, J-M Mbaka; Mulinganya, Guy; Bwinja, G Mulinganya
2013-01-01
Cholera epidemics have a recorded history in eastern Congo dating to 1971. A study was conducted to find out the linkage between climate variability/change and cholera outbreak and to assess the related economic cost in the management of cholera in Congo. This study integrates historical data (20 years) on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in South-Kivu province, eastern Congo. Analyses of precipitation and temperatures characteristics in South-Kivu provinces showed that cholera epidemics are closely associated with climatic factors variability. Peaks in Cholera new cases were in synchrony with peaks in rainfalls. Cholera infection cases declined significantly (P<0.05) with the rise in the average temperature. The monthly number of new Cholera cases oscillated between 5 and 450. For every rise of the average temperature by 0.35 °C to 0.75 °C degree Celsius, and for every change in the rainfall variability by 10-19%, it is likely cholera infection risks will increase by 17 to 25%. The medical cost of treatment of Cholera case infection was found to be of US$50 to 250 per capita. The total costs of Cholera attributable to climate change were found to fall in the range of 4 to 8% of the per capita in annual income in Bukavu town. It is likely that high rainfall favor multiplication of the bacteria and contamination of water sources by the bacteria (Vibrio cholerae). The consumption of polluted water, promiscuity, population density and lack of hygiene are determinants favoring spread and infection of the bacteria among human beings living in over-crowded environments.
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Erica A. H. Smithwick; Anthony L. Westerling; Monica G. Turner; William H. Romme; Michael G. Ryan
2011-01-01
More frequent fires under climate warming are likely to alter terrestrial carbon (C) stocks by reducing the amount of C stored in biomass and soil. However, the thresholds of fire frequency that could shift landscapes from C sinks to C sources under future climates are not known. We used the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE) as a case study to explore the conditions...
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Erin Towler; Victoria A. Saab; Richard S. Sojda; Katherine Dickinson; Cindy L. Bruyere; Karen R. Newlon
2012-01-01
Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a...
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Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders.
Challinor, Andy J; Adger, W Neil; Benton, Tim G; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave
2018-06-13
Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment. © 2018 The Author(s).
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Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Challinor, Andy J.; Adger, W. Neil; Benton, Tim G.; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave
2018-06-01
Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.
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Egger, C; Maurer, M
2015-04-15
Urban drainage design relying on observed precipitation series neglects the uncertainties associated with current and indeed future climate variability. Urban drainage design is further affected by the large stochastic variability of precipitation extremes and sampling errors arising from the short observation periods of extreme precipitation. Stochastic downscaling addresses anthropogenic climate impact by allowing relevant precipitation characteristics to be derived from local observations and an ensemble of climate models. This multi-climate model approach seeks to reflect the uncertainties in the data due to structural errors of the climate models. An ensemble of outcomes from stochastic downscaling allows for addressing the sampling uncertainty. These uncertainties are clearly reflected in the precipitation-runoff predictions of three urban drainage systems. They were mostly due to the sampling uncertainty. The contribution of climate model uncertainty was found to be of minor importance. Under the applied greenhouse gas emission scenario (A1B) and within the period 2036-2065, the potential for urban flooding in our Swiss case study is slightly reduced on average compared to the reference period 1981-2010. Scenario planning was applied to consider urban development associated with future socio-economic factors affecting urban drainage. The impact of scenario uncertainty was to a large extent found to be case-specific, thus emphasizing the need for scenario planning in every individual case. The results represent a valuable basis for discussions of new drainage design standards aiming specifically to include considerations of uncertainty. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Yu, H.-L.; Yang, S.-J.; Lin, Y.-C.
2012-04-01
Dengue Fever (DF) has been identified by the World Health organization (WHO) as one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases in tropical and sub-tropical areas. DF has been one of the most important epidemics in Taiwan which occur annually especially in southern Taiwan during summer and autumn. Most DF studies have focused mainly on temporal DF patterns and its close association with climatic covariates, whereas few studies have investigated the spatial DF patterns (spatial dependence and clustering) and composite space-time effects of the DF epidemics. The present study proposes a spatio-temporal DF prediction approach based on stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. Core and site-specific knowledge bases are considered, including climate and health datasets under conditions of uncertainty, space-time dependence functions, and a Poisson regression model of climatic variables contributing to DF occurrences in southern Taiwan during 2007, when the highest number of DF cases was recorded in the history of Taiwan epidemics (over 2000). The obtained results show that the DF outbreaks in the study area are highly influenced by climatic conditions. Furthermore, the analysis can provide the required "one-week-ahead" outbreak warnings based on spatio-temporal predictions of DF distributions. Therefore, the proposed analysis can provide the Taiwan Disease Control Agency with a valuable tool to timely identify, control, and even efficiently prevent DF spreading across space-time.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Heo, J.
2015-12-01
This study investigates an interconnected system of climate change - land cover - water resources for a watershed in humid subtropical climate from 1970 to 2009. A 0.7°C increase in temperature and a 16.3% increase in precipitation were observed in our study area where temperature had no obvious increase trend and precipitation showed definite increasing trend compared to previous studies. The main trend of land-cover change was conversion of vegetation and barren lands to developed and crop lands affected by human intervention, and forest and grass to bush/shrub which considered to be caused by natural climate system. Precipitation contribution to the other hydrologic parameters for a humid subtropical basin is estimated to be 51.9% of evapotranspiration, 16.3% of surface runoff, 0.9% of groundwater discharge, 19.3% of soil water content, and 11.6% of water storage. It shows little higher evapotranspiration and considerably lower surface runoff compare to other humid climate area due to vegetation dominance of land cover. Hydrologic responses to climate and land cover changes are increases of surface runoff, soil water content, evapotranspiration by 15.0%, 2.7%, and 20.1%, respectively, and decrease of groundwater discharge decreased by 9.2%. Surface runoff is relatively stable with precipitation while groundwater discharge and soil water content are sensitive to land cover changes especially human intervention. If temperature is relatively stable, it is considered to be land cover plays important role in evapotranspiration. Citation: Heo, J., J. Yu, J. R. Giardino, and H. Cho (2015), Impacts of climate and land-cover changes on water resources in a humid subtropical watershed: a case study from East Texas, USA, Water Environ. J., 29, doi:10.1111/wej.12096
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Continuing and developing the engagement with Mediterranean stakeholders in the CLIM-RUN project
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Goodess, Clare
2013-04-01
The CLIM-RUN case studies provide a real-world and Mediterranean context for bringing together experts on the demand and supply side of climate services. They are essential to the CLIM-RUN objective of using iterative and bottom-up (i.e., stakeholder led) approaches for optimizing the two-way information transfer between climate experts and stakeholders - and focus on specific locations and sectors (such as tourism and renewable energy). Stakeholder involvement has been critical from the start of the project in March 2011, with an early series of targeted workshops used to define the framework for each case study as well as the needs of stakeholders. Following these workshops, the user needs were translated into specific requirements from climate observations and models and areas identified where additional modelling and analysis are required. The first set of new products and tools produced by the CLIM-RUN modelling and observational experts are presented in a series of short briefing notes. A second round of CLIM-RUN stakeholder workshops will be held for each of the case studies in Spring 2013 as an essential part of the fourth CLIM-RUN key stage: Consolidation and collective review/assessment. During these workshops the process of interaction between CLIM-RUN scientists and case-study stakeholders will be reviewed, as well as the utility of the products and information developed in CLIM-RUN. Review questions will include: How far have we got? How successful have we been? What are the remaining problems/gaps? How to sustain and extend the interactions? The process of planning for and running these second workshops will be outlined and emerging outcomes presented, focusing on common messages which are relevant for development of the CLIM-RUN protocol for providing improved climate services to stakeholders together with the identification of best practices and policy recommendations for climate services development.
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During the past decade interest has developed in the interactive effects of climate change and UV radiation on aquatic and terrestrial biogeochemical cycles. This talk used selected case studies to illustrate approaches that are being used to investigate these intriguing processe...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
José Pérez-Palazón, María; Pimentel, Rafael; Sáenz de Rodrigáñez, Marta; Gulliver, Zacarias; José Polo, María
2017-04-01
Climate services provide water resource managements and users with science-based information on the likely impacts associated to the future climate scenarios. Mountainous areas are especially vulnerable to climate variations due to the expected changes in the snow regime, among others; in Mediterranean regions, this shift involves significant effects on the river flow regime and water resource availability and management. The Guadalfeo River Basin is a 1345 km2 mountainous, coastal catchment in southern Spain, ranging from the Mediterranean Sea coastline to the Sierra Nevada mountains to the north (up to 3450 m a.s.l.) within a 40-km distance. The climate variability adds complexity to this abrupt topography and heterogeneous area. The uncertainty associated to snow occurrence and persistence for the next decades poses a challenge for the current and future water resource uses in the area. The development of easy-to-use local climate indicators and derived decision-making variables is key to assess and face the economic impact of the potential changes. The SWICCA (Service for Water Indicators in Climate Change Adaptation) Platform (http://swicca.climate.copernicus.eu/) has been developed under the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and provides global climate and hydrology indicators on a Pan-European scale. Different case studies are included to assess the platform development and contents, and analyse the indicators' performance from a proof-of-concept approach that includes end-users feedbacks. The Guadalfeo River Basin is one of these case studies. This work presents the work developed so far to analyse and use the SWICCA Climate Impact Indicators (CIIs) related to river flow in this mountainous area, and the first set of local indicators specifically designed to assess selected end-users on the potential impact associated to different climate scenarios. Different CIIs were extracted from the SWICCA interface and tested against the local information available in the case study. The Essential Climate Variables used were precipitation and flow daily values, obtained at different spatial scales. The analysis led to the use of SWICCA-river flow on a catchment scale as the most suitable global CIIs in this area. Further treatment included local downscaling by means of transfer functions and a final relative anomaly correction. Three final end-users (clients) were identified within the water resource management framework: 1) mini hydropower facilities at the head areas, 2) urban supply at the southern area, and 3) water management decision makers (reservoir operation). From the corrected CIIs, local indicators were defined from the interaction with each client, to tailor water services easily and readily usable. Knowledge brokering from this interaction resulted in a first identification of a set of 4, 3 and 4 indicators for hydropower generation, urban users and water resource decision-makers, respectively, with different time scales. The projections of three future climate scenarios were assessed for each indicator and presented to each client. Local indicators are an efficient tool to assess the potential range of water allocation possibilities in this area on an annual and decadal basis, and get a deeper insight of the seasonal future potential regime of water resource availability. The results are good examples of key information for decision making in the future, and show how to derive local indicators with impact in the short and medium term planning in heterogeneous catchments in this region.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Curtis, W. R.; Gamble, D. W.; Popke, J.
2013-12-01
This paper examines some of the implications of climate change for farming in the Caribbean, through an analysis of future crop suitability and a case study of climate variability and agricultural practices in St. Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica. To assess potential changes in Caribbean agriculture, we present results from a water budget model based on a 100-year regional climate projection of temperature and precipitation for the circum-Caribbean basin. We find that future water deficits in the region are climate type-dependent. Savanna climates experience the largest annual changes, while semi-arid environments are greatly impacted in the spring. When the impacts of temperature and precipitation are considered separately, we find that predicted future warming, and the associated increase in evapotranspiration, has a slightly larger climatological effect on crop water need than predicted decreases in precipitation. To illustrate how a changing climate regime may impact agricultural practices, we present results from recent fieldwork in St. Elizabeth Parish, one of the main farming regions on the island of Jamaica. Drawing on data from farmer interviews and a recently-installed weather mesonet, we highlight the ways in which local microclimates influence farmer livelihood strategies and community-level vulnerability. Initial results suggest that farmers are experiencing greater climate variability, and that communities with Savanna and semi-arid type climates may be more susceptible to drought than communities in wetter, higher-elevation microclimates. These changes have enhanced the importance of irrigation technology and water management strategies for successful farming. In this context, we argue, large, well-capitalized farmers may be better able to manage the uncertainties associated with climate change, leading to an uneven landscape of vulnerability across the region.
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A Case Study: Climate Change Decision Support for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, Flint Basins
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Day, G. N.; McMahon, G.; Friesen, N.; Carney, S.
2011-12-01
Riverside Technology, inc. has developed a Climate Change Decision Support System (DSS) to provide water managers with a tool to explore a range of current Global Climate Model (GCM) projections to evaluate their potential impacts on streamflow and the reliability of future water supplies. The system was developed as part of a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) project. The DSS uses downscaled GCM data as input to small-scale watershed models to produce time series of projected undepleted streamflow for various emission scenarios and GCM simulations. Until recently, water managers relied on historical streamflow data for water resources planning. In many parts of the country, great effort has been put into estimating long-term historical undepleted streamflow accounting for regulation, diversions, and return flows to support planning and water rights administration. In some cases, longer flow records have been constructed using paleohydrologic data in an attempt to capture climate variability beyond what is evident during the observed historical record. Now, many water managers are recognizing that historical data may not be representative of an uncertain climate future, and they have begun to explore the use of climate projections in their water resources planning. The Climate Change DSS was developed to support water managers in planning by accounting for both climate variability and potential climate change. In order to use the information for impact analysis, the projected streamflow time series can be exported and substituted for the historical streamflow data traditionally applied in their system operations models for water supply planning. This paper presents a case study in which climate-adjusted flows are coupled with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) ResSim model for the Apalachicola, Chattahoochee, and Flint (ACF) River basins. The study demonstrates how climate scenarios can be used with existing or proposed operating rules to explore the range of potential climate impacts on lake levels, drought trigger frequency, hydropower generation, and low-flow statistics. Initial system implementation of the Climate Change DSS was focused in the State of Colorado working with water supply agencies in the Front Range to assess local water supply vulnerability to climate change. To facilitate national implementation, the system capitalizes on National Weather Service (NWS) watershed models currently used for operational river forecasting. These models are well calibrated and available for the entire country. The system has been extended to include the ACF and the Sacramento River basins because of the importance of the water resources in these basins. Plans are now being made to expand coverage to include the Baltimore-Washington, D.C. water supply area. The DSS is operational and publicly available (www.climatechangedss.com).
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Climate and vegetational regime shifts in the late Paleozoic ice age earth.
DiMichele, W A; Montañez, I P; Poulsen, C J; Tabor, N J
2009-03-01
The late Paleozoic earth experienced alternation between glacial and non-glacial climates at multiple temporal scales, accompanied by atmospheric CO2 fluctuations and global warming intervals, often attended by significant vegetational changes in equatorial latitudes of Pangaea. We assess the nature of climate-vegetation interaction during two time intervals: middle-late Pennsylvanian transition and Pennsylvanian-Permian transition, each marked by tropical warming and drying. In case study 1, there is a catastrophic intra-biomic reorganization of dominance and diversity in wetland, evergreen vegetation growing under humid climates. This represents a threshold-type change, possibly a regime shift to an alternative stable state. Case study 2 is an inter-biome dominance change in western and central Pangaea from humid wetland and seasonally dry to semi-arid vegetation. Shifts between these vegetation types had been occurring in Euramerican portions of the equatorial region throughout the late middle and late Pennsylvanian, the drier vegetation reaching persistent dominance by Early Permian. The oscillatory transition between humid and seasonally dry vegetation appears to demonstrate a threshold-like behavior but probably not repeated transitions between alternative stable states. Rather, changes in dominance in lowland equatorial regions were driven by long-term, repetitive climatic oscillations, occurring with increasing intensity, within overall shift to seasonal dryness through time. In neither case study are there clear biotic or abiotic warning signs of looming changes in vegetational composition or geographic distribution, nor is it clear that there are specific, absolute values or rates of environmental change in temperature, rainfall distribution and amount, or atmospheric composition, approach to which might indicate proximity to a terrestrial biotic-change threshold.
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Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H
2016-01-05
We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.
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Holistic uncertainty analysis in river basin modeling for climate vulnerability assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Taner, M. U.; Wi, S.; Brown, C.
2017-12-01
The challenges posed by uncertain future climate are a prominent concern for water resources managers. A number of frameworks exist for assessing the impacts of climate-related uncertainty, including internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change, such as scenario-based approaches and vulnerability-based approaches. While in many cases climate uncertainty may be dominant, other factors such as future evolution of the river basin, hydrologic response and reservoir operations are potentially significant sources of uncertainty. While uncertainty associated with modeling hydrologic response has received attention, very little attention has focused on the range of uncertainty and possible effects of the water resources infrastructure and management. This work presents a holistic framework that allows analysis of climate, hydrologic and water management uncertainty in water resources systems analysis with the aid of a water system model designed to integrate component models for hydrology processes and water management activities. The uncertainties explored include those associated with climate variability and change, hydrologic model parameters, and water system operation rules. A Bayesian framework is used to quantify and model the uncertainties at each modeling steps in integrated fashion, including prior and the likelihood information about model parameters. The framework is demonstrated in a case study for the St. Croix Basin located at border of United States and Canada.
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Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P. Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; Garcia, Marcelo H.
2016-01-01
We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.
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Reconstructing Student Conceptions of Climate Change; An Inquiry Approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
McClelland, J. Collin
No other environmental issue today has as much potential to alter life on Earth as does global climate change. Scientific evidence continues to grow; indicating that climate change is occurring now, and that change is a result of human activities (National Research Council [NRC], 2010). The need for climate literacy in society has become increasingly urgent. Unfortunately, understanding the concepts necessary for climate literacy remains a challenge for most individuals. A growing research base has identified a number of common misconceptions people have about climate literacy concepts (Leiserowitz, Smith, & Marlon 2011; Shepardson, Niyogi, Choi, & Charusombat, 2009). However, few have explored this understanding in high school students. This sequential mixed methods study explored the changing conceptions of global climate change in 90 sophomore biology students through the course of their participation in an eight-week inquiry-based global climate change unit. The study also explored changes in students' attitudes over the course of the study unit, contemplating possible relationships between students' conceptual understanding of and attitudes toward global climate change. Phase I of the mixed methods study included quantitative analysis of pre-post content knowledge and attitude assessment data. Content knowledge gains were statistically significant and over 25% of students in the study shifted from an expressed belief of denial or uncertainty about global warming to one of belief in it. Phase II used an inductive approach to explore student attitudes and conceptions. Conceptually, very few students grew to a scientifically accurate understanding of the greenhouse effect or the relationship between global warming and climate change. However, they generally made progress in their conceptual understanding by adding more specific detail to explain their understanding. Phase III employed a case study approach with eight purposefully selected student cases, identifying five common conceptual and five common attitudebased themes. Findings suggest similar misconceptions revealed in prior research also occurred in this study group. Some examples include; connecting global warming to the hole in the ozone layer, and falsely linking unrelated environmental issues like littering to climate change. Data about students' conceptual understanding of energy may also have implications for education research curriculum development. Similar to Driver & While no statistical relationship between students' attitudes about global climate change and overall conceptual understanding emerged, some data suggested that climate change skeptics may perceive the concept of evidence differently than non-skeptics. One-way ANOVA data comparing skeptics with other students on evidence-based assessment items was significant. This study offers insights to teachers of potential barriers students face when trying to conceptualize global climate change concepts. More importantly it reinforces the idea that students generally find value in learning about global climate change in the classroom.
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Ying Ouyang; Jia-En Zhang; Yide Li; Prem Parajuli; Gary Feng
2015-01-01
Rainfall and air temperature variations resulting from climate change are important driving forces to change hydrologic processes in watershed ecosystems. This study investigated the impacts of past and future rainfall and air temperature variations upon water discharge, water outflow (from the watershed outlet), and evaporative loss in the Lower Yazoo River Watershed...
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Griffith, Jason S.
2009-01-01
Although some school improvement literature has suggested that schools will improve when unions are removed from the school system, unions have rarely been isolated in the research. This study involved a mixed method case study approach to explore whether support of the local teacher union affected perceptions of school climate, as measured by the…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Üstün, Ahmet
2017-01-01
This research aims to determine the effects of the leadership roles of administrators who work at special education schools upon organizational climate. This research has been conducted using the case study technique, which is a kind of qualitative research approach. The study group of this research consists of four administrators including three…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Thompson, Debra A.
2010-01-01
This study explored how the educational governance team, composed of the superintendent and school board, can, in their collaborative efforts and decision-making processes, influence school district climate and impact student achievement. Though in form and function, school boards have not changed much in their almost 200 years of existence,…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Raath, Schalk; Hay, Anette
2016-01-01
A strong sense of self-efficacy in teachers has in many studies been consistently related to positive teaching behaviours and learner outcomes. This research reports on the differences among teachers regarding their self-efficacy and how this relates to their confidence and commitment to integrate climate change in their teaching practice. A…
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Integrated Assessment and the Relation Between Land-Use Change and Climate Change
DOE R&D Accomplishments Database
Dale, V. H.
1994-10-07
Integrated assessment is an approach that is useful in evaluating the consequences of global climate change. Understanding the consequences requires knowledge of the relationship between land-use change and climate change. Methodologies for assessing the contribution of land-use change to atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations are considered with reference to a particular case study area: south and southeast Asia. The use of models to evaluate the consequences of climate change on forests must also consider an assessment approach. Each of these points is discussed in the following four sections.
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Li, Chunyan; Tang, Ya; Luo, Han; Di, Baofeng; Zhang, Liyun
2013-10-01
Climate change affects the productivity of agricultural ecosystems. Farmers cope with climate change based on their perceptions of changing climate patterns. Using a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, we present a new research framework that uses questionnaire and interview methods to compare local farmers' perceptions of climate change with the adaptive farming strategies they adopt. Most farmers in the valley believed that temperatures had increased in the last 30 years but did not note any changes in precipitation. Most farmers also reported sowing and harvesting hulless barley 10-15 days earlier than they were 20 years ago. In addition, farmers observed that plants were flowering and river ice was melting earlier in the season, but they did not perceive changes in plant germination, herbaceous vegetation growth, or other spring seasonal events. Most farmers noticed an extended fall season signified by delays in the freezing of rivers and an extended growing season for grassland vegetation. The study results showed that agricultural practices in the study area are still traditional; that is, local farmers' perceptions of climate change and their strategies to mitigate its impacts were based on indigenous knowledge and their own experiences. Adaptive strategies included adjusting planting and harvesting dates, changing crop species, and improving irrigation infrastructure. However, the farmers' decisions could not be fully attributed to their concerns about climate change. Local farming systems exhibit high adaptability to climate variability. Additionally, off-farm income has reduced the dependence of the farmers on agriculture, and an agricultural subsidy from the Chinese Central Government has mitigated the farmers' vulnerability. Nevertheless, it remains necessary for local farmers to build a system of adaptive climate change strategies that combines traditional experience and indigenous knowledge with scientific research and government polices as key factors.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Chunyan; Tang, Ya; Luo, Han; Di, Baofeng; Zhang, Liyun
2013-10-01
Climate change affects the productivity of agricultural ecosystems. Farmers cope with climate change based on their perceptions of changing climate patterns. Using a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, we present a new research framework that uses questionnaire and interview methods to compare local farmers' perceptions of climate change with the adaptive farming strategies they adopt. Most farmers in the valley believed that temperatures had increased in the last 30 years but did not note any changes in precipitation. Most farmers also reported sowing and harvesting hulless barley 10-15 days earlier than they were 20 years ago. In addition, farmers observed that plants were flowering and river ice was melting earlier in the season, but they did not perceive changes in plant germination, herbaceous vegetation growth, or other spring seasonal events. Most farmers noticed an extended fall season signified by delays in the freezing of rivers and an extended growing season for grassland vegetation. The study results showed that agricultural practices in the study area are still traditional; that is, local farmers' perceptions of climate change and their strategies to mitigate its impacts were based on indigenous knowledge and their own experiences. Adaptive strategies included adjusting planting and harvesting dates, changing crop species, and improving irrigation infrastructure. However, the farmers' decisions could not be fully attributed to their concerns about climate change. Local farming systems exhibit high adaptability to climate variability. Additionally, off-farm income has reduced the dependence of the farmers on agriculture, and an agricultural subsidy from the Chinese Central Government has mitigated the farmers' vulnerability. Nevertheless, it remains necessary for local farmers to build a system of adaptive climate change strategies that combines traditional experience and indigenous knowledge with scientific research and government polices as key factors.
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University-Level Teaching of Anthropogenic Global Climate Change (AGCC) via Student Inquiry
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark
2017-01-01
This paper reviews university-level efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC) through curricula that enable student scientific inquiry. We examined 152 refereed publications and proceedings from academic conferences and selected 26 cases of inquiry learning that overcome specific challenges to AGCC teaching. This review identifies both the strengths and weaknesses of each of these case studies. It is the first to go beyond examining the impact of specific inquiry instructional approaches to offer a synthesis of cases. We find that inquiry teaching can succeed by concretising scientific processes, providing access to global data and evidence, imparting critical and higher order thinking about AGCC science policy and contextualising learning with places and scientific facts. We recommend educational researchers and scientists collaborate to create and refine curricula that utilise geospatial technologies, climate models and communication technologies to bring students into contact with scientists, climate data and authentic AGCC research processes. Many available science education technologies and curricula also require further research to maximise trade-offs between implementation and training costs and their educational value.
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Perceptions of Female Muslim Students Who Veil: Campus Religious Climate
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Seggie, Fatma Nevra; Sanford, Gretchen
2010-01-01
This article is based on a small qualitative case study that examined the perceptions of undergraduate Muslim American and Muslim international female students regarding the campus religious climate in a predominantly Christian four-year research university. Specifically, it seeks to understand the opportunities and challenges of female Muslim…
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Brown shrimp are commercially important shellfish that support one of the largest fisheries in the southeastern United States, contributing to a shrimp harvest revenue that can exceed $100 million per year. Therefore, understanding how climate-driven changes in habitat availabil...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Lopez, Ana; Fung, Fai; New, Mark; Watts, Glenn; Weston, Alan; Wilby, Robert L.
2009-08-01
The majority of climate change impacts and adaptation studies so far have been based on at most a few deterministic realizations of future climate, usually representing different emissions scenarios. Large ensembles of climate models are increasingly available either as ensembles of opportunity or perturbed physics ensembles, providing a wealth of additional data that is potentially useful for improving adaptation strategies to climate change. Because of the novelty of this ensemble information, there is little previous experience of practical applications or of the added value of this information for impacts and adaptation decision making. This paper evaluates the value of perturbed physics ensembles of climate models for understanding and planning public water supply under climate change. We deliberately select water resource models that are already used by water supply companies and regulators on the assumption that uptake of information from large ensembles of climate models will be more likely if it does not involve significant investment in new modeling tools and methods. We illustrate the methods with a case study on the Wimbleball water resource zone in the southwest of England. This zone is sufficiently simple to demonstrate the utility of the approach but with enough complexity to allow a variety of different decisions to be made. Our research shows that the additional information contained in the climate model ensemble provides a better understanding of the possible ranges of future conditions, compared to the use of single-model scenarios. Furthermore, with careful presentation, decision makers will find the results from large ensembles of models more accessible and be able to more easily compare the merits of different management options and the timing of different adaptation. The overhead in additional time and expertise for carrying out the impacts analysis will be justified by the increased quality of the decision-making process. We remark that even though we have focused our study on a water resource system in the United Kingdom, our conclusions about the added value of climate model ensembles in guiding adaptation decisions can be generalized to other sectors and geographical regions.
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How will biotic interactions influence climate change-induced range shifts?
HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Harsch, Melanie A; Ettinger, Ailene K; Ford, Kevin R; Theobald, Elinore J
2013-09-01
Biotic interactions present a challenge in determining whether species distributions will track climate change. Interactions with competitors, consumers, mutualists, and facilitators can strongly influence local species distributions, but few studies assess how and whether these interactions will impede or accelerate climate change-induced range shifts. In this paper, we explore how ecologists might move forward on this question. We first outline the conditions under which biotic interactions can result in range shifts that proceed faster or slower than climate velocity and result in ecological surprises. Next, we use our own work to demonstrate that experimental studies documenting the strength of biotic interactions across large environmental gradients are a critical first step for understanding whether they will influence climate change-induced range shifts. Further progress could be made by integrating results from these studies into modeling frameworks to predict how or generalize when biotic interactions mediate how changing climates influence range shifts. Finally, we argue that many more case studies like those described here are needed to explore the importance of biotic interactions during climate change-induced range shifts. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.
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Wetlands, climate zones and Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia.
Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu
2012-12-01
Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia, but the linkages of the wetlands and climate zones with BFV transmission remain unclear. We aimed to examine the relationship between the wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk in Queensland, Australia. Data on the wetlands, climate zones, population and BFV cases for the period 1992 to 2008 were obtained from relevant government agencies. BFV risk was grouped as low-, medium- and high-level based on BFV incidence percentiles. The buffer zones around each BFV case were made using 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 50km distances. We performed a discriminant analysis to determine the differences between wetland classes and BFV risk within each climate zone. The discriminant analyses show that saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant contributors to BFV risk in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. These models had classification accuracies of 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV risk varies with wetland class and climate zone. The discriminant analysis is a useful tool to quantify the links between wetlands, climate zones and BFV risk. Copyright © 2012 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent
2015-09-01
Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Fustec, Klervi; Larrue, Corinne; Trottier, Julie
2010-05-01
We propose to address the question of security threats through an analysis of water uses and competitions in the current situation, on one hand, and in conditions of climate change, on the other hand, in order to have an operational dissemination of hydrological modelling results. This will be carried out for each case study of the EU project CLIMB (7th EU FP). In this particular case, climate change impacts are to be considered in relation with water uses and rivalries. Taking them into account while involving stakeholders should allow us to have a deep impact on water uses regulation under conditions of climate change. The originality of this methodology, the first objective of which within the project is to disseminate project results and interact with stakeholders, is to use the dissemination phase as a means of involving stakeholder knowledge concerning water uses and competitions. The idea is to let the stakeholders identify themselves, in each case study, by means of interactive methods, the impact of the change of hydrological regime on their own water uses and competitions. We propose to use a real "bottom-up" strategy to assess the potential water uses and rivalries in the context of water scarcity (or flood) due to climate change. Such an approach will allow us to evaluate the risk of an increase in water rivalries and threats to security following climate change impacts scenarios at the river basin scale.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dubois, Ghislain
2017-04-01
Alpine ski resorts are highly dependent on snow, which availability is characterized by a both a high inter-annual variability and a gradual diminution due to climate change. Due to this dependency to climatic resources, the ski industry is increasingly affected by climate change: higher temperatures limit snow falls, increase melting and limit the possibilities of technical snow making. Therefore, since the seventies, managers drastically improved their practices, both to adapt to climate change and to this inter-annual variability of snow conditions. Through slope preparation and maintenance, snow stock management, artificial snow making, a typical resort can approximately keep the same season duration with 30% less snow. The ski industry became an activity of high technicity The EUPORIAS FP7 (www.euporias.eu) project developed between 2012 and 2016 a deep understanding of the supply and demand conditions for the provision of climate services disseminating seasonal forecasts. In particular, we developed a case study, which allowed conducting several activities for a better understanding of the demand and of the business model of future services applied to the ski industry. The investigations conducted in France inventoried the existing tools and databases, assessed the decision making process and data needs of ski operators, and provided evidences that some discernable skill of seasonal forecasts exist. This case study formed the basis of the recently funded PROSNOW H2020 project. We will present the main results of EUPORIAS project for the ski industry.
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Transportation planning, climate change, and decision making under uncertainty
DOT National Transportation Integrated Search
2008-01-01
Case studies are presented that illustrate the application of methods which incorporate : decisionmaking under uncertainty. The applications of these methods that are summarized in : this paper deal with cases outside of transportation, including mil...
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Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique
2016-01-01
An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274
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Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique
2016-01-01
An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.
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Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark.
Zhou, Q; Halsnæs, K; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K
2012-01-01
Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation framework is used to give detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimation of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis. The results are aimed at providing important information for decision making on how best to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities.
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Cost Analysis of Water Transport for Climate Change Impact Assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Szaleniec, V.; Buytaert, W.
2012-04-01
It is expected that climate change will have a strong impact on water resources worldwide. Many studies exist that couple the output of global climate models with hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on physical water availability. However, the water resources topology of many regions and especially that of cities can be very complex. Changes in physical water availability do therefore not translate easily into impacts on water resources for cities. This is especially the case for cities with a complex water supply topology, for instance because of geographical barriers, strong gradients in precipitation patterns, or competing water uses. In this study we explore the use of cost maps to enable the inclusion of water supply topologies in climate change impact studies. We use the city of Lima as a case study. Lima is the second largest desert city in the world. Although Peru as a whole has no water shortage, extreme gradients exist. Most of the economic activities including the city of Lima are located in the coastal desert. This region is geographically disconnected from the wet Amazon basin because of the Andes mountain range. Hence, water supply is precarious, provided by a complex combination of high mountain ecosystems including wetlands and glaciers, as well as groundwater aquifers depending on recharge from the mountains. We investigate the feasibility and costs of different water abstraction scenarios and the impact of climate change using cost functions for different resources. The option of building inter basins tunnels across the Andes is compared to the costs of desalinating seawater from the Pacific Ocean under different climate change scenarios and population growth scenarios. This approach yields recommendations for the most cost-effective options for the future.
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Understanding the influence of climate change on the embodied energy of water supply.
Mo, Weiwei; Wang, Haiying; Jacobs, Jennifer M
2016-05-15
The current study aims to advance understandings on how and to what degree climate change will affect the life cycle chemical and energy uses of drinking water supply. A dynamic life cycle assessment was performed to quantify historical monthly operational embodied energy of a selected water supply system located in northeast US. Comprehensive multivariate and regression analyses were then performed to understand the statistical correlation among monthly life cycle energy consumptions, three water quality indicators (UV254, pH, and water temperature), and five climate indicators (monthly mean temperature, monthly mean maximum/minimum temperatures, total precipitation, and total snow fall). Thirdly, a calculation was performed to understand how volumetric and total life cycle energy consumptions will change under two selected IPCC emission scenarios (A2 and B1). It was found that volumetric life cycle energy consumptions are highest in winter months mainly due to the higher uses of natural gas in the case study system, but total monthly life cycle energy consumptions peak in both July and January because of the increasing water demand in summer months. Most of the variations in chemical and energy uses can be interpreted by water quality and climate variations except for the use of soda ash. It was also found that climate change might lead to an average decrease of 3-6% in the volumetric energy use of the case study system by the end of the century. This result combined with conclusions reached by previous climate versus water supply studies indicates that effects of climate change on drinking water supply might be highly dependent on the geographical location and treatment process of individual water supply systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Climate change induced risk analysis of Addis Ababa city (Ethiopia)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jalayer, Fatemeh; Herslund, Lise; Cavan, Gina; Printz, Andreas; Simonis, Ingo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Hellevik, Siri; Fekade, Rebka; Nebebe, Alemu; Woldegerima, Tekle; Workalemahu, Liku; Workneh, Abraham; Yonas, Nebyou; Abebe Bekele, Essete; Yeshitela, Kumelachew
2013-04-01
CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its objective is to develop context-centered methods to assess vulnerability and increase knowledge on managing climate related risks and to estimate the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The project downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, desertification. It also evaluates and links: social vulnerability; urban green structures and ecosystem services; urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. CLUVA combines assessment approaches to investigate how cities, communities and households can resist and cope with, as well as recover from climate induced hazards. This multi-scale and multi-disciplinary qualitative, quantitative and probabilistic approach of CLUVA is currently being applied to selected African test cities (Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania; Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso; St. Louis - Senegal). In particular, the poster will report on the progresses of the Addis Ababa case study. Addis Ababa, the largest city in Ethiopia, is exposed to heat waves, drought, and, more recently, to flash floods. Due to undulating topography, poor waste management and the absence of sustainable storm water management, Addis Ababa is prone to severe flood events during the rainy seasons. Metropolitan Addis Ababa is crossed by several small watercourses. Torrential rains, very common during the rainy season, cause a sudden rise in the flow of these water courses, inundating and damaging the settlements along their banks and affecting the livelihood of the local population. The combination of climate change and development pressures are expected to exacerbate the current situation. The CLUVA research team - composed of climate and environmental scientists, engineers, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists from both European and African institutions - has started to produce research outputs suitable for use in evidence-based planning activities in the case study cities. Indeed, climate change projections at 8 km resolution are ready for regions containing each of the case study cities; a preliminary hazard assessment for floods, drought and heat waves has already been performed, based on historical data; urban morphology and related green structures have been characterized; preliminary findings in social vulnerability have been achieved; a GIS based identification of Urban Residential hotspots to flooding is completed; and the vulnerability of informal settlements to flooding has been evaluated for one of the hotspots identified (Little Akaki case study area). Furthermore, a set of indicators relevant for Addis Ababa has been selected by local stakeholders to identify especially vulnerable, high risk areas and communities and an investigation of existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks and vulnerability is ongoing. Evidence from the CLUVA project is being used to develop the next Master Plan for the Addis Ababa metropolitan area.
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Hospital safety climate surveys: measurement issues.
Jackson, Jeanette; Sarac, Cakil; Flin, Rhona
2010-12-01
Organizational safety culture relates to behavioural norms in the workplace and is usually assessed by safety climate surveys. These can be a diagnostic indicator on the state of safety in a hospital. This review examines recent studies using staff surveys of hospital safety climate, focussing on measurement issues. Four questionnaires (hospital survey on patient safety culture, safety attitudes questionnaire, patient safety climate in healthcare organizations, hospital safety climate scale), with acceptable psychometric properties, are now applied across countries and clinical settings. Comparisons for benchmarking must be made with caution in case of questionnaire modifications. Increasing attention is being paid to the unit and hospital level wherein distinct cultures may be located, as well as to associated measurement and study design issues. Predictive validity of safety climate is tested against safety behaviours/outcomes, with some relationships reported, although effects may be specific to professional groups/units. Few studies test the role of intervening variables that could influence the effect of climate on outcomes. Hospital climate studies are becoming a key component of healthcare safety management systems. Large datasets have established more reliable instruments that allow a more focussed investigation of the role of culture in the improvement and maintenance of staff's safety perceptions within units, as well as within hospitals.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hopcroft, Peter O.; Gallagher, Kerry; Pain, Christopher C.
2009-08-01
Collections of suitably chosen borehole profiles can be used to infer large-scale trends in ground-surface temperature (GST) histories for the past few hundred years. These reconstructions are based on a large database of carefully selected borehole temperature measurements from around the globe. Since non-climatic thermal influences are difficult to identify, representative temperature histories are derived by averaging individual reconstructions to minimize the influence of these perturbing factors. This may lead to three potentially important drawbacks: the net signal of non-climatic factors may not be zero, meaning that the average does not reflect the best estimate of past climate; the averaging over large areas restricts the useful amount of more local climate change information available; and the inversion methods used to reconstruct the past temperatures at each site must be mathematically identical and are therefore not necessarily best suited to all data sets. In this work, we avoid these issues by using a Bayesian partition model (BPM), which is computed using a trans-dimensional form of a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. This then allows the number and spatial distribution of different GST histories to be inferred from a given set of borehole data by partitioning the geographical area into discrete partitions. Profiles that are heavily influenced by non-climatic factors will be partitioned separately. Conversely, profiles with climatic information, which is consistent with neighbouring profiles, will then be inferred to lie in the same partition. The geographical extent of these partitions then leads to information on the regional extent of the climatic signal. In this study, three case studies are described using synthetic and real data. The first demonstrates that the Bayesian partition model method is able to correctly partition a suite of synthetic profiles according to the inferred GST history. In the second, more realistic case, a series of temperature profiles are calculated using surface air temperatures of a global climate model simulation. In the final case, 23 real boreholes from the United Kingdom, previously used for climatic reconstructions, are examined and the results compared with a local instrumental temperature series and the previous estimate derived from the same borehole data. The results indicate that the majority (17) of the 23 boreholes are unsuitable for climatic reconstruction purposes, at least without including other thermal processes in the forward model.
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Symstad, Amy J.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Miller, Brian W.; Rowland, Erika; Schuurman, Gregor W.
2017-01-01
Scenario planning helps managers incorporate climate change into their natural resource decision making through a structured “what-if” process of identifying key uncertainties and potential impacts and responses. Although qualitative scenarios, in which ecosystem responses to climate change are derived via expert opinion, often suffice for managers to begin addressing climate change in their planning, this approach may face limits in resolving the responses of complex systems to altered climate conditions. In addition, this approach may fall short of the scientific credibility managers often require to take actions that differ from current practice. Quantitative simulation modeling of ecosystem response to climate conditions and management actions can provide this credibility, but its utility is limited unless the modeling addresses the most impactful and management-relevant uncertainties and incorporates realistic management actions. We use a case study to compare and contrast management implications derived from qualitative scenario narratives and from scenarios supported by quantitative simulations. We then describe an analytical framework that refines the case study’s integrated approach in order to improve applicability of results to management decisions. The case study illustrates the value of an integrated approach for identifying counterintuitive system dynamics, refining understanding of complex relationships, clarifying the magnitude and timing of changes, identifying and checking the validity of assumptions about resource responses to climate, and refining management directions. Our proposed analytical framework retains qualitative scenario planning as a core element because its participatory approach builds understanding for both managers and scientists, lays the groundwork to focus quantitative simulations on key system dynamics, and clarifies the challenges that subsequent decision making must address.
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Climate Change Toolkit-Case study: Switzerland
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid
2017-04-01
This paper describes the development of a Climate Change Toolkit (CCT) to rapidly perform tasks needed in a climate change study. CCT consists of five modules: data extraction, global climate data management, bias correction, spatial interpolation, and critical consecutive day analyzer to calculate extreme events. CCT is linked to an archive of big dataset consisting of daily global historic (CRU, 1970-2005), and global GCM data (1960-2099) from 5 models and 4 carbon scenarios. Application of CCT in Switzerland using ensemble results of scenario RCP8.5 showed an increase in Max temperature, and a wide change in precipitation. Frequency of dry periods will likely increase. The frequency of wet periods suggests higher risk of flooding in the country.
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Mountain Weather and Climate, Third Edition
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hastenrath, Stefan
2009-05-01
For colleagues with diverse interests in the atmosphere, glaciers, radiation, landforms, water resources, vegetation, human implications, and more, Mountain Weather and Climate can be a valuable source of guidance and literature references. The book is organized into seven chapters: 1, Mountains and their climatological study; 2,Geographical controls of mountain meteorological elements; 3, Circulation systems related to orography; 4, Climatic characteristics of mountains; 5, Regional case studies; 6, Mountain bioclimatology; and 7, Changes in mountain climates. These chapters are supported by l78 diagrams and photographs, 47 tables, and some 2000 literature references. The volume has an appendix of units and energy conversion factors and a subject index, but it lacks an author index.
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Climate Adaptation Training for Natural Resource Professionals
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sorensen, H. L.; Meyer, N.
2016-02-01
The University of Minnesota Sea Grant Program and University of Minensota Extension are coordinating the development of a cohort-based training for natural resource professionals that prepares them with essential aptitude, resources and tools to lead climate adaptation activities in their organizations and municipalities. This course is geared toward the growing cadre of natural resources, water, municipal infrastructure, and human resources professionals who are called upon to lead climate adaptation initiatives but lack core training in climate change science, vulnerability assessment, and adaptation planning. Modeled on pre-existing UMN certificate programs, the online course encompasses approximately 40 contact hours of training. Content builds from basic climate mechanics to change science, vulnerability assessment, downscaled climate modeling, ecosystem response to climate change and strategies communicating climate change to diverse audiences. Minnesota as well as national case studies and expertise will anchor core climate adaptation concepts in a relevant context.
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Risk Assessment in Relation to the Effect of Climate Change on Water Shortage in the Taichung Area
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hsiao, J.; Chang, L.; Ho, C.; Niu, M.
2010-12-01
Rapid economic development has stimulated a worldwide greenhouse effect and induced global climate change. Global climate change has increased the range of variation in the quantity of regional river flows between wet and dry seasons, which effects the management of regional water resources. Consequently, the influence of climate change has become an important issue in the management of regional water resources. In this study, the Monte Carlo simulation method was applied to risk analysis of shortage of water supply in the Taichung area. This study proposed a simulation model that integrated three models: weather generator model, surface runoff model, and water distribution model. The proposed model was used to evaluate the efficiency of the current water supply system and the potential effectiveness of two additional plans for water supply: the “artificial lakes” plan and the “cross-basin water transport” plan. A first-order Markov Chain method and two probability distribution models, exponential distribution and normal distribution, were used in the weather generator model. In the surface runoff model, researchers selected the Generalized Watershed Loading Function model (GWLF) to simulate the relationship between quantity of rainfall and basin outflow. A system dynamics model (SD) was applied to the water distribution model. Results of the simulation indicated that climate change could increase the annual quantity of river flow in the Dachia River and Daan River basins. However, climate change could also increase the difference in the quantity of river flow between wet and dry seasons. Simulation results showed that in current system case or in the additional plan cases, shortage status of water for both public and agricultural uses with conditions of climate change will be mostly worse than that without conditions of climate change except for the shortage status for the public use in the current system case. With or without considering the effect of climate change, the additional plans, especially the “cross-basin water transport” plan, for water supply could significantly increase the supply of water for public use. The proposed simulation model and results of analysis in this study could provide valuable reference for decision-makers in regards to risk analysis of regional water supply.
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Chuang, Ting-Wu; Soble, Adam; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Mkhonta, Nomcebo; Seyama, Eric; Mthethwa, Steven; Pindolia, Deepa; Kunene, Simon
2017-06-01
Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland's National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.
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Climate change is likely to worsen the public health threat of diarrheal disease in Botswana.
Alexander, Kathleen A; Carzolio, Marcos; Goodin, Douglas; Vance, Eric
2013-03-26
Diarrheal disease is an important health challenge, accounting for the majority of childhood deaths globally. Climate change is expected to increase the global burden of diarrheal disease but little is known regarding climate drivers, particularly in Africa. Using health data from Botswana spanning a 30-year period (1974-2003), we evaluated monthly reports of diarrheal disease among patients presenting to Botswana health facilities and compared this to climatic variables. Diarrheal case incidence presents with a bimodal cyclical pattern with peaks in March (ANOVA p < 0.001) and October (ANOVA p < 0.001) in the wet and dry season, respectively. There is a strong positive autocorrelation (p < 0.001) in the number of reported diarrhea cases at the one-month lag level. Climatic variables (rainfall, minimum temperature, and vapor pressure) predicted seasonal diarrheal with a one-month lag in variables (p < 0.001). Diarrheal case incidence was highest in the dry season after accounting for other variables, exhibiting on average a 20% increase over the yearly mean (p < 0.001). Our analysis suggests that forecasted climate change increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation may increase dry season diarrheal disease incidence with hot, dry conditions starting earlier and lasting longer. Diarrheal disease incidence in the wet season is likely to decline. Our results identify significant health-climate interactions, highlighting the need for an escalated public health focus on controlling diarrheal disease in Botswana. Study findings have application to other arid countries in Africa where diarrheal disease is a persistent public health problem.
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Climate Change is Likely to Worsen the Public Health Threat of Diarrheal Disease in Botswana
Alexander, Kathleen A.; Carzolio, Marcos; Goodin, Douglas; Vance, Eric
2013-01-01
Diarrheal disease is an important health challenge, accounting for the majority of childhood deaths globally. Climate change is expected to increase the global burden of diarrheal disease but little is known regarding climate drivers, particularly in Africa. Using health data from Botswana spanning a 30-year period (1974–2003), we evaluated monthly reports of diarrheal disease among patients presenting to Botswana health facilities and compared this to climatic variables. Diarrheal case incidence presents with a bimodal cyclical pattern with peaks in March (ANOVA p < 0.001) and October (ANOVA p < 0.001) in the wet and dry season, respectively. There is a strong positive autocorrelation (p < 0.001) in the number of reported diarrhea cases at the one-month lag level. Climatic variables (rainfall, minimum temperature, and vapor pressure) predicted seasonal diarrheal with a one-month lag in variables (p < 0.001). Diarrheal case incidence was highest in the dry season after accounting for other variables, exhibiting on average a 20% increase over the yearly mean (p < 0.001). Our analysis suggests that forecasted climate change increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation may increase dry season diarrheal disease incidence with hot, dry conditions starting earlier and lasting longer. Diarrheal disease incidence in the wet season is likely to decline. Our results identify significant health-climate interactions, highlighting the need for an escalated public health focus on controlling diarrheal disease in Botswana. Study findings have application to other arid countries in Africa where diarrheal disease is a persistent public health problem. PMID:23531489
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pfautsch, Sebastian; Gray, Tonia
2017-01-01
Purpose: This study, from Western Sydney University, aims to assess the disposition of students towards climate warming (CW)--a key component of sustainability. CW is a global reality. Any human born after February 1985 has never lived in a world that was not constantly warming, yet little is known about how higher education students perceive…
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
Frozen soil prevails in cold regions and exerts significant influence on the hydrological cycle. In the context of climate warming, the spatial and temporal dynamics of frozen soil and hydrological processes also will change. How these changes inter-relate is a key challenge in studies of hydrologic...
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Jian Yang; Peter J. Weisberg; Thomas E. Dilts; E. Louise Loudermilk; Robert M. Scheller; Alison Stanton; Carl Skinner
2015-01-01
Strategic fire and fuel management planning benefits from detailed understanding of how wildfire occurrences are distributed spatially under current climate, and from predictive models of future wildfire occurrence given climate change scenarios. In this study, we fitted historical wildfire occurrence data from 1986 to 2009 to a suite of spatial point process (SPP)...
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Stochastic modeling of wetland-groundwater systems
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bertassello, Leonardo Enrico; Rao, P. Suresh C.; Park, Jeryang; Jawitz, James W.; Botter, Gianluca
2018-02-01
Modeling and data analyses were used in this study to examine the temporal hydrological variability in geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), as influenced by hydrologic connectivity to shallow groundwater, wetland bathymetry, and subject to stochastic hydro-climatic forcing. We examined the general case of GIWs coupled to shallow groundwater through exfiltration or infiltration across wetland bottom. We also examined limiting case with the wetland stage as the local expression of the shallow groundwater. We derive analytical expressions for the steady-state probability density functions (pdfs) for wetland water storage and stage using few, scaled, physically-based parameters. In addition, we analyze the hydrologic crossing time properties of wetland stage, and the dependence of the mean hydroperiod on climatic and wetland morphologic attributes. Our analyses show that it is crucial to account for shallow groundwater connectivity to fully understand the hydrologic dynamics in wetlands. The application of the model to two different case studies in Florida, jointly with a detailed sensitivity analysis, allowed us to identify the main drivers of hydrologic dynamics in GIWs under different climate and morphologic conditions.
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McAfee, Stephanie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory
2017-01-01
Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water-year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature and precipitation changes. However, we also find that the relative severity of future flow projections within a given climate scenario can be estimated with simple metrics that characterize the input climate data and basin conditions. These results suggest that simple testing, like the analyses presented in this paper, may be helpful in understanding differences between existing studies or in identifying specific conditions for physically based mechanistic modeling. Both options could reduce overall cost and improve the efficiency of conducting climate change impacts studies.
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Mapping human dimensions of climate change research in the Canadian Arctic.
Ford, James D; Bolton, Kenyon; Shirley, Jamal; Pearce, Tristan; Tremblay, Martin; Westlake, Michael
2012-12-01
This study maps current understanding and research trends on the human dimensions of climate change (HDCC) in the eastern and central Canadian Arctic. Developing a systematic literature review methodology, 117 peer reviewed articles are identified and examined using quantitative and qualitative methods. The research highlights the rapid expansion of HDCC studies over the last decade. Early scholarship was dominated by work documenting Inuit observations of climate change, with research employing vulnerability concepts and terminology now common. Adaptation studies which seek to identify and evaluate opportunities to reduce vulnerability to climate change and take advantage of new opportunities remain in their infancy. Over the last 5 years there has been an increase social science-led research, with many studies employing key principles of community-based research. We currently have baseline understanding of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the region, but key gaps are evident. Future research needs to target significant geographic disparities in understanding, consider risks and opportunities posed by climate change outside of the subsistence hunting sector, complement case study research with regional analyses, and focus on identifying and characterizing sustainable and feasible adaptation interventions.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Xiao, Heng; Gustafson, William I.; Wang, Hailong
Subgrid-scale interactions between turbulence and radiation are potentially important for accurately reproducing marine low clouds in climate models. To better understand the impact of these interactions, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is configured for large eddy simulation (LES) to study the stratocumulus-to-trade cumulus (Sc-to-Cu) transition. Using the GEWEX Atmospheric System Studies (GASS) composite Lagrangian transition case and the Atlantic Trade Wind Experiment (ATEX) case, it is shown that the lack of subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interaction, as is the case in current generation climate models, accelerates the Sc-to-Cu transition. Our analysis suggests that in cloud-topped boundary layers subgrid-scale turbulence-radiation interactionsmore » contribute to stronger production of temperature variance, which in turn leads to stronger buoyancy production of turbulent kinetic energy and helps to maintain the Sc cover.« less
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Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study.
Ganesh, Chandrakala; Smith, Jason A
2018-04-01
Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California's progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions.
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Emotional Climate and High Quality Learning Experiences in Science Teacher Education
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Bellocchi, Alberto; Ritchie, Stephen M.; Tobin, Kenneth; King, Donna; Sandhu, Maryam; Henderson, Senka
2014-01-01
The role of emotion during learning encounters in science teacher education is under-researched and under-theorized. In this case study, we explore the emotional climates (ECs), that is, the collective states of emotional arousal, of a preservice secondary science education class to illuminate practice for producing and reproducing high quality…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McPartland, James; Balfanz, Robert; Jordan, Will; Legters, Nettie
1998-01-01
A case study of a large nonselective urban high school in Baltimore (Maryland) describes the design and implementation of a comprehensive package of school reforms, the Talent Development Model with Career Academies. Qualitative and quantitative evidence is provided on significant improvements in school climate, student attendance, promotion…
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The Dynamics of Climate Change: A Case Study in Organisational Learning
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wasdell, David
2011-01-01
Purpose: Based in the discipline of applied consultancy-research, this paper seeks to present a synthesis-review of the social dynamics underlying the stalled negotiations of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Its aim is to enhance understanding of the processes involved, to offer a working agenda to the organizational…
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Predicting Plausible Impacts of Sets of Climate and Land Use Change Scenarios on Water Resources
Global changes in climate and land use can alTect the quantity and quality of water resources. Hence, we need a methodology to predict these ramifications. Using the Little Miami River (LMR) watershed as a case study, this paper describes a spatial analytical approach integrating...
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In this paper, we discuss the potential water quality impacts of future land-use and climate changes. The Little Miami River Basin was used as a case study. It is a predominantly agricultural watershed in southwestern Ohio (U.S.A.) that has experienced land-use modifications. ...
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Ellis, Neville R; Albrecht, Glenn A
2017-02-01
'Sense of place' has become a central concept in the analysis of the cultural, personal and mental health risks posed by a changing climate. However, such place-related understandings of mental health and wellbeing remain largely limited to Indigenous health contexts. In this article we argue the relevance of sense of place in understanding the mental health impacts of climate change on family farmers who retain close living and working relationships to the land. We conducted a community-based qualitative case study located in the Western Australian Wheatbelt - a region that has experienced some of the most significant climate change in Australia. A three-part interview series was conducted with 22 family farmers between February 2013 and April 2014, and 15 interviews with various agricultural and mental health key informants. The research findings reveal that recently observed patterns of climate change have exacerbated farmers' worries about the weather, undermined notions of self-identity, and contributed to cumulative and chronic forms of place-based distress, culminating in heightened perceived risk of depression and suicide. The research findings highlight the tightly coupled ecosystem health-human health relationships that exist for family farmers living in regions affected by climate change, as well as the significance of farmers' place-based attachments and identities for their mental health and wellbeing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Prestoration: Using species in restoration that will persist now and into the future
Butterfield, B.J.; Copeland, Stella; Munson, Seth M.; Roybal, C.M.; Wood, Troy E.
2017-01-01
Climate change presents new challenges for selecting species for restoration. If migration fails to keep pace with climate change, as models predict, the most suitable sources for restoration may not occur locally at all. To address this issue we propose a strategy of “prestoration”: utilizing species in restoration for which a site represents suitable habitat now and into the future. Using the Colorado Plateau, USA as a case study, we assess the ability of grass species currently used regionally in restoration to persist into the future using projections of ecological niche models (or climate envelope models) across a suite of climate change scenarios. We then present a technique for identifying new species that best compensate for future losses of suitable habitat by current target species. We found that the current suite of species, selected by a group of experts, is predicted to perform reasonably well in the short-term, but that losses of prestorable habitat by mid-century would approach 40%. Using an algorithm to identify additional species, we found that fewer than ten species could compensate for nearly all of the losses incurred by the current target species. This case study highlights the utility of integrating ecological niche modeling and future climate forecasts to predict the utility of species in restoring under climate change across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.
2011-12-01
Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact in parts of the developing world. At the 2010 meeting of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, industrialized countries agreed in principle to provide US$100 billion per year by 2020 to assist the developing world respond to climate change. This "Green Climate Fund" is a critical step towards addressing the challenge of climate change. However, the policy and discourse on supporting adaptation in the developing world remains highly idealized. For example, the efficacy of "no regrets" adaptation efforts or "mainstreaming" adaptation into decision-making are rarely evaluated in the real world. In this presentation, I will discuss the gap between adaptation theory and practice using a multi-year case study of the cultural, social and scientific obstacles to adapting to sea level rise in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati. Our field research reveals how scientific and institutional uncertainty can limit international efforts to fund adaptation and lead to spiraling costs. Scientific uncertainty about hyper-local impacts of sea level rise, though irreducible, can at times limit decision-making about adaptation measures, contrary to the notion that "good" decision-making practices can incorporate scientific uncertainty. Efforts to improve institutional capacity must be done carefully, or they risk inadvertently slowing the implementation of adaptation measures and increasing the likelihood of "mal"-adaptation.
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Jenni, K.; Graves, D.; Hardiman, Jill M.; Hatten, James R.; Mastin, Mark C.; Mesa, Matthew G.; Montag, J.; Nieman, Timothy; Voss, Frank D.; Maule, Alec G.
2014-01-01
Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kucharski, John; Tkach, Mark; Olszewski, Jennifer; Chaudhry, Rabia; Mendoza, Guillermo
2016-04-01
This presentation demonstrates the application of Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) at Zambia's principal water treatment facility, The Iolanda Water Treatment Plant. The water treatment plant is prone to unacceptable failures during periods of low hydropower production at the Kafue Gorge Dam Hydroelectric Power Plant. The case study explores approaches of increasing the water treatment plant's ability to deliver acceptable levels of service under the range of current and potential future climate states. The objective of the study is to investigate alternative investments to build system resilience that might have been informed by the CRIDA process, and to evaluate the extra resource requirements by a bilateral donor agency to implement the CRIDA process. The case study begins with an assessment of the water treatment plant's vulnerability to climate change. It does so by following general principals described in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework". By utilizing relatively simple bootstrapping methods a range of possible future climate states is generated while avoiding the use of more complex and costly downscaling methodologies; that are beyond the budget and technical capacity of many teams. The resulting climate vulnerabilities and uncertainty in the climate states that produce them are analyzed as part of a "Level of Concern" analysis. CRIDA principals are then applied to this Level of Concern analysis in order to arrive at a set of actionable water management decisions. The principal goals of water resource management is to transform variable, uncertain hydrology into dependable services (e.g. water supply, flood risk reduction, ecosystem benefits, hydropower production, etc…). Traditional approaches to climate adaptation require the generation of predicted future climate states but do little guide decision makers how this information should impact decision making. In this context it is not surprising that the increased hydrologic variability and uncertainty produced by many climate risk analyses bedevil water resource decision making. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) approach builds on work found in "Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning and Project Design: the Decision Tree Framework" which provide guidance of vulnerability assessments. It guides practitioners through a "Level of Concern" analysis where climate vulnerabilities are analyzed to produce actionable alternatives and decisions.
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School Administration Leadership Style and Academic Achievement: A Case Study
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Brvenik-Estrella, Marianna
2013-01-01
The purpose of this case study was to gather current teacher and administrator perceptions on leadership in a school environment. The study sought to identify patterns of leadership style as elements in building a school climate that focused on performance and intrinsic rewards. The study also sought to establish an understanding of how leadership…
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Climate change, vector-borne diseases and working population.
Vonesch, Nicoletta; D'Ovidio, Maria Concetta; Melis, Paola; Remoli, Maria Elena; Ciufolini, Maria Grazia; Tomao, Paola
2016-01-01
Risks associated with climate change are increasing worldwide and the global effects include altered weather and precipitation patterns, rising temperatures and others; human health can be affected directly and indirectly. This paper is an overview of literature regarding climate changes, their interaction with vector-borne diseases and impact on working population. Articles regarding climate changes as drivers of vector-borne diseases and evidences of occupational cases have been picked up by public databank. Technical documents were also included in the study. Evidences regarding the impact of climate changes on vector-borne diseases in Europe, provided by the analysis of the literature, are presented. Climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases are likely to be emerging due to climate modifications, with impacts on public and occupational health. However, other environmental and anthropogenic drivers such as increasing travelling and trade, deforestation and reforestation, altered land use and urbanization can influence their spread. Further studies are necessary to better understand the phenomenon and implementation of adaptation strategies to protect human health should be accelerated and strengthened.
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HIA 2016 DOE Zero Energy Ready Home Case Study: Imery & Co, High-performance Bungalow, Roswell, GA
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Case study of a DOE 2016 Housing Innovation Award winning custom for buyer home in the mixed-humid climate that met the DOE Zero Energy Ready Home criteria and achieved a HERS 41 without PV or HERS 6 with PV.
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DOE ZERH Case Study: Sunroc Builders, Bates Avenue, Lakeland, FL
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
none,
2015-09-01
Case study of a DOE 2015 Housing Innovation Award winning affordable home in the hot-humid climate that got HERS 57 without PV, with 6.5” SIP walls and 8.25” SIP roof; uninsulated slab foundation; fresh air intake; SEER 16 ducted air source heat pump.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Case study of a DOE 2016 Housing Innovation Award winning affordable home in the mixed-humid climate that met the DOE Zero Energy Ready Home criteria and achieved a HERS 32 without PV or HERS 9 with PV.
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Touch, Van; Martin, Robert John; Scott, Jeannette Fiona; Cowie, Annette; Liu, De Li
2016-11-01
While climate change is confirmed to have serious impacts on agricultural production in many regions worldwide, researchers have proposed various measures that farmers can apply to cope with and adapt to those changes. However, it is often the case that not every adaptation measure would be practical and adoptable in a specific region. Farmers may have their own ways of managing and adapting to climate change that need to be taken into account when considering interventions. This study aimed to engage with farmers to: (1) better understand small-holder knowledge, attitudes and practices in relation to perceived or expected climate change; and (2) document cropping practices, climate change perceptions, constraints to crop production, and coping and adaptation options with existing climate variability and expected climate change. This study was conducted in 2015 in Sala Krau village near Pailin (12°52'N, 102°45'E) and Samlout (12°39'N, 102°36'E) of North-West Cambodia. The methods used were a combination of focus group discussions and one-on-one interviews where 132 farming households were randomly selected. We found that farmers were conscious of changes in climate over recent years, and had a good understanding of likely future changes. While farmers are aware of some practices that can be modified to minimize risk and cope with anticipated changes, they are reluctant to apply them. Furthermore; there are no government agricultural extension services provided at the village level and farmers have relied on each other and other actors in the value chain network for information to support their decision-making. There is a lack of knowledge of the principles of conservation agriculture that urgently require agricultural extension services in the region to build farmer ability to better cope and adapt to climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Climate variability and salmonellosis in Singapore - A time series analysis.
Aik, Joel; Heywood, Anita E; Newall, Anthony T; Ng, Lee-Ching; Kirk, Martyn D; Turner, Robin
2018-10-15
Climate change is expected to bring about global warming and an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. This may consequently influence the transmission of food-borne diseases. The short term associations between climatic conditions and Salmonella infections are well documented in temperate climates but not in the tropics. We conducted an ecological time series analysis to estimate the short term associations between non-outbreak, non-travel associated reports of Salmonella infections and observed climatic conditions from 2005 to 2015 for Singapore. We used a negative binomial time series regression model to analyse the associations on a weekly scale, controlling for season, long term trend, delayed weather effects, autocorrelation and the period where Salmonella was made legally notifiable. There were a total of 11,324 Salmonella infections reported during our study period. A 1 °C increase in mean ambient air temperature was associated with a 4.3% increase (Incidence Rate Ratio [IRR]: 1.043, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.003, 1.084) in reported Salmonella infections in the same week and a 6.3% increase (IRR: 1.063, 95% CI = 1.022, 1.105) three weeks later. A 1% increase in the mean relative humidity was associated with a 1.3% decrease (IRR: 0.987, 95% CI = 0.981, 0.994) in cases six weeks later, while a 10 mm increase in weekly cumulative rainfall was associated with a 0.8% increase (IRR: 1.008, 95% CI = 1.002, 1.015) in cases 2 weeks later but a 0.9% decrease (IRR: 0.991, 95% CI = 0.984, 0.998) in cases 5 weeks later. No thresholds for these weather effects were detected. This study confirms the short-term influence of climatic conditions on Salmonella infections in Singapore and the potential impact of climate change on Salmonellosis in the tropics. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Holmberg, Maria; Aherne, Julian; Austnes, Kari; Beloica, Jelena; De Marco, Alessandra; Dirnböck, Thomas; Fornasier, Maria Francesca; Goergen, Klaus; Futter, Martyn; Lindroos, Antti-Jussi; Krám, Pavel; Neirynck, Johan; Nieminen, Tiina Maileena; Pecka, Tomasz; Posch, Maximilian; Pröll, Gisela; Rowe, Ed C; Scheuschner, Thomas; Schlutow, Angela; Valinia, Salar; Forsius, Martin
2018-05-31
Current climate warming is expected to continue in coming decades, whereas high N deposition may stabilize, in contrast to the clear decrease in S deposition. These pressures have distinctive regional patterns and their resulting impact on soil conditions is modified by local site characteristics. We have applied the VSD+ soil dynamic model to study impacts of deposition and climate change on soil properties, using MetHyd and GrowUp as pre-processors to provide input to VSD+. The single-layer soil model VSD+ accounts for processes of organic C and N turnover, as well as charge and mass balances of elements, cation exchange and base cation weathering. We calibrated VSD+ at 26 ecosystem study sites throughout Europe using observed conditions, and simulated key soil properties: soil solution pH (pH), soil base saturation (BS) and soil organic carbon and nitrogen ratio (C:N) under projected deposition of N and S, and climate warming until 2100. The sites are forested, located in the Mediterranean, forested alpine, Atlantic, continental and boreal regions. They represent the long-term ecological research (LTER) Europe network, including sites of the ICP Forests and ICP Integrated Monitoring (IM) programmes under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), providing high quality long-term data on ecosystem response. Simulated future soil conditions improved under projected decrease in deposition and current climate conditions: higher pH, BS and C:N at 21, 16 and 12 of the sites, respectively. When climate change was included in the scenario analysis, the variability of the results increased. Climate warming resulted in higher simulated pH in most cases, and higher BS and C:N in roughly half of the cases. Especially the increase in C:N was more marked with climate warming. The study illustrates the value of LTER sites for applying models to predict soil responses to multiple environmental changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Asefa, T.
2017-12-01
This case study presents the experiences of two of the most successful boundary organizations that are engaged in co-producing decision relevant climate information for water resources management. The Water Utilities Climate Alliance (www.wucaonline.org) is a coalition of 11 of the nation's largest water utilities with customers base over 50 million. Whereas Florida Water and Climate Alliance (www.floridaWCA.org) is a state level collaborative Learning network that is engaged in co-exploration and co-development of actionable climate science. Lesson learned from these two structurally different organizations will be shared.
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Sibling Incest: A Study of the Dynamics of 25 Cases.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Smith, Holly; Israel, Edie
1987-01-01
Common family patterns observed in 25 cases of sibling incest were: (1) distant, inaccessible parents; (2) parental stimulation of sexual climate in the home; and (3) family secrets, especially with regard to extramarital affairs. (Author/DB)
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Cholera and shigellosis: different epidemiology but similar responses to climate variability.
Cash, Benjamin A; Rodó, Xavier; Emch, Michael; Yunus, Md; Faruque, Abu S G; Pascual, Mercedes
2014-01-01
Comparative studies of the associations between different infectious diseases and climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, are lacking. Diarrheal illnesses, particularly cholera and shigellosis, provide an important opportunity to apply a comparative approach. Cholera and shigellosis have significant global mortality and morbidity burden, pronounced differences in transmission pathways and pathogen ecologies, and there is an established climate link with cholera. In particular, the specific ecology of Vibrio cholerae is often invoked to explain the sensitivity of that disease to climate. The extensive surveillance data of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh are used here to revisit the known associations between cholera and climate, and to address their similarity to previously unexplored patterns for shigellosis. Monthly case data for both the city of Dhaka and a rural area known as Matlab are analyzed with respect to their association with El Niño and flooding. Linear correlations are examined between flooding and cumulative cases, as well as for flooding and El Niño. Rank-correlation maps are also computed between disease cases in the post-monsoon epidemic season and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Similar climate associations are found for both diseases and both locations. Increased cases follow increased monsoon flooding and increased sea surface temperatures in the preceding winter corresponding to an El Niño event. The similarity in association patterns suggests a systemic breakdown in population health with changing environmental conditions, in which climate variability acts primarily through increasing the exposure risk of the human population. We discuss these results in the context of the on-going debate on the relative importance of the environmental reservoir vs. secondary transmission, as well as the implications for the use of El Niño as an early indicator of flooding and enteric disease risk.
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Cholera and Shigellosis: Different Epidemiology but Similar Responses to Climate Variability
Cash, Benjamin A.; Rodó, Xavier; Emch, Michael; Yunus, Md.; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Pascual, Mercedes
2014-01-01
Background Comparative studies of the associations between different infectious diseases and climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, are lacking. Diarrheal illnesses, particularly cholera and shigellosis, provide an important opportunity to apply a comparative approach. Cholera and shigellosis have significant global mortality and morbidity burden, pronounced differences in transmission pathways and pathogen ecologies, and there is an established climate link with cholera. In particular, the specific ecology of Vibrio cholerae is often invoked to explain the sensitivity of that disease to climate. Methods and Findings The extensive surveillance data of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh are used here to revisit the known associations between cholera and climate, and to address their similarity to previously unexplored patterns for shigellosis. Monthly case data for both the city of Dhaka and a rural area known as Matlab are analyzed with respect to their association with El Niño and flooding. Linear correlations are examined between flooding and cumulative cases, as well as for flooding and El Niño. Rank-correlation maps are also computed between disease cases in the post-monsoon epidemic season and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Similar climate associations are found for both diseases and both locations. Increased cases follow increased monsoon flooding and increased sea surface temperatures in the preceding winter corresponding to an El Niño event. Conclusions The similarity in association patterns suggests a systemic breakdown in population health with changing environmental conditions, in which climate variability acts primarily through increasing the exposure risk of the human population. We discuss these results in the context of the on-going debate on the relative importance of the environmental reservoir vs. secondary transmission, as well as the implications for the use of El Niño as an early indicator of flooding and enteric disease risk. PMID:25229494
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Xiao, Hong; Tian, Huai-yu; Zhang, Xi-xing; Zhao, Jian; Zhu, Pei-juan; Liu, Ru-chun; Chen, Tian-mu; Dai, Xiang-yu; Lin, Xiao-ling
2011-10-01
To realize the influence of climatic changes on the transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), and to explore the adoption of climatic factors in warning HFRS. A total of 2171 cases of HFRS and the synchronous climatic data in Changsha from 2000 to 2009 were collected to a climate-based forecasting model for HFRS transmission. The Cochran-Armitage trend test was employed to explore the variation trend of the annual incidence of HFRS. Cross-correlations analysis was then adopted to assess the time-lag period between the climatic factors, including monthly average temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and Multivariate Elño-Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) and the monthly HFRS cases. Finally the time-series Poisson regression model was constructed to analyze the influence of different climatic factors on the HFRS transmission. The annual incidence of HFRS in Changsha between 2000 - 2009 was 13.09/100 000 (755 cases), 9.92/100 000 (578 cases), 5.02/100 000 (294 cases), 2.55/100 000 (150 cases), 1.13/100 000 (67 cases), 1.16/100 000 (70 cases), 0.95/100 000 (58 cases), 1.40/100 000 (87 cases), 0.75/100 000 (47 cases) and 1.02/100 000 (65 cases), respectively. The incidence showed a decline during these years (Z = -5.78, P < 0.01). The results of Poisson regression model indicated that the monthly average temperature (18.00°C, r = 0.26, P < 0.01, 1-month lag period; IRR = 1.02, 95%CI: 1.00 - 1.03, P < 0.01), relative humidity (75.50%, r = 0.62, P < 0.01, 3-month lag period; IRR = 1.03, 95%CI: 1.02 - 1.04, P < 0.01), rainfall (112.40 mm, r = 0.25, P < 0.01, 6-month lag period; IRR = 1.01, 95CI: 1.01 - 1.02, P = 0.02), and MEI (r = 0.31, P < 0.01, 3-month lag period; IRR = 0.77, 95CI: 0.67 - 0.88, P < 0.01) were closely associated with monthly HFRS cases (18.10 cases). Climate factors significantly influence the incidence of HFRS. If the influence of variable-autocorrelation, seasonality, and long-term trend were controlled, the accuracy of forecasting by the time-series Poisson regression model in Changsha would be comparatively high, and we could forecast the incidence of HFRS in advance.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Tonn, Bruce Edward; Rose, Erin M.; Hawkins, Beth A.
The report presents fifteen individual case studies of high-performing and unique local weatherization agencies. This research was one component of the retrospective evaluation of the U.S. Department of Energy s Weatherization Assistance Program. The agencies were chosen to represent a range of contexts and approaches to weatherization. For example, the set of agencies includes a mix of urban and rural agencies, those that mainly use in-house crews to weatherize homes versus those that use contractor crews, and a mix of locations, from very cold climates to moderate to hot humid and dry climates. The case studies were mainly based onmore » site visits to the agencies that encompassed interviews with program directors, weatherization crews, and recipients of weatherization. This information was supplemented by secondary materials. The cases document the diversity of contexts and challenges faced by the agencies and how they operate on a day-by-day basis. The cases also high common themes found throughout the agencies, such as their focus on mission and respect for their clients.« less
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To Tip or Not to Tip: The Case of the Congo Basin Rainforest Realm
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pietsch, S.; Bednar, J. E.; Fath, B. D.; Winter, P. A.
2017-12-01
The future response of the Congo basin rainforest, the second largest tropical carbon reservoir, to climate change is still under debate. Different Climate projections exist stating increase and decrease in rainfall and different changes in rainfall patterns. Within this study we assess all options of climate change possibilities to define the climatic thresholds of Congo basin rainforest stability and assess the limiting conditions for rainforest persistence. We use field data from 199 research plots from the Western Congo basin to calibrate and validate a complex BioGeoChemistry model (BGC-MAN) and assess model performance against an array of possible future climates. Next, we analyze the reasons for the occurrence of tipping points, their spatial and temporal probability of occurrence, will present effects of hysteresis and derive probabilistic spatial-temporal resilience landscapes for the region. Additionally, we will analyze attractors of forest growth dynamics and assess common linear measures for early warning signals of sudden shifts in system dynamics for their robustness in the context of the Congo Basin case, and introduce the correlation integral as a nonlinear measure of risk assessment.
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Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison
Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices.more » The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.« less
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Role of Science in the Development of U.S. Climate Policy Legislation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Staudt, A. C.
2009-12-01
Climate policy in the United States advanced substantially in 2009, including the development of the first comprehensive legislation designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Whereas in prior years Congress actively sought out information on climate change science and impacts to help make the case for policy action, the emphasis recently shifted to economic implications and technological readiness for proposed policies. This shift reflected an acknowledgment among many, but not all, members of Congress that the debate about human-caused climate change is over and that they must focus on crafting policy solutions. The dozens of Congressional hearings held during 2008 and 2009 on climate solutions certainly were necessary for developing legislation. However, a question remains as to whether the legislation, in particular the selection of emissions reduction targets and timetables, was informed by the latest climate science. Of particular concern is to what extent recently published scientific studies indicating many climate changes are on pace with or exceeding the worst-case scenarios considered in the 2007 reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were considered. Furthermore, lacking official hearings on the topic of climate science, skeptical policy makers may have little exposure to the latest scientific findings. Environmental non-governmental organizations play an important intermediary role between the scientific community and policy makers to bridge both of these information gaps. Examples of NGO strategies for bringing the latest science to Congress and of ways that scientists can engage in these efforts will be presented.
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Malaria transmission in two localities in north-western Argentina
Dantur Juri, María J; Zaidenberg, Mario; Claps, Guillermo L; Santana, Mirta; Almirón, Walter R
2009-01-01
Background Malaria is one of the most important tropical diseases that affects people globally. The influence of environmental conditions in the patterns of temporal distribution of malaria vectors and the disease has been studied in different countries. In the present study, ecological aspects of the malaria vector Anopheles (Anopheles) pseudopunctipennis and their relationship with climatic variables, as well as the seasonality of malaria cases, were studied in two localities, El Oculto and Aguas Blancas, in north-western Argentina. Methods The fluctuation of An. pseudopunctipennis and the malaria cases distribution was analysed with Random Effect Poisson Regression. This analysis takes into account the effect of each climatic variable on the abundance of both vector and malaria cases, giving as results predicted values named Incidence Rate Radio. Results The number of specimens collected in El Oculto and Aguas Blancas was 4224 (88.07%) and 572 (11.93%), respectively. In El Oculto no marked seasonality was found, different from Aguas Blancas, where high abundance was detected at the end of spring and the beginning of summer. The maximum mean temperature affected the An. pseudopunctipennis fluctuation in El Oculto and Aguas Blancas. When considering the relationship between the number of malaria cases and the climatic variables in El Oculto, maximum mean temperature and accumulated rainfall were significant, in contrast with Aguas Blancas, where mean temperature and humidity showed a closer relationship to the fluctuation in the disease. Conclusion The temporal distribution patterns of An. pseudopunctipennis vary in both localities, but spring appears as the season with better conditions for mosquito development. Maximum mean temperature was the most important variable in both localities. Malaria cases were influenced by the maximum mean temperature in El Oculto, while the mean temperature and humidity were significant in Aguas Blancas. In Aguas Blancas peaks of mosquito abundance and three months later, peaks of malaria cases were observed. The study reported here will help to increase knowledge about not only vectors and malaria seasonality but also their relationships with the climatic variables that influence their appearances and abundances. PMID:19152707
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Pierazzo, E.
2005-01-01
The goal of this work is to investigate the perturbation of the climate system due to large impact events. Impacts are among the most important mechanisms for the evolution, distribution, and destruction of life in the universe. However, the possible climatic effects of an impact were not seriously considered until 1980, when Louis and Walter Alvarez suggested that the profound end-Cretaceous extinction might have been caused by the impact of an asteroid or comet about 10 km in diameter. Since then, the climatic change associated with the end-Cretaceous impact has become one of the most interesting and still unresolved questions in linking the well-known Chicxulub impact event and the end- Cretaceous mass extinction. While the end-Cretaceous impact offers the best-documented case of an impact affecting the Earth's climate and biota, even smaller (and more frequent in time) impacts could introduce significant perturbations of the climate comparable, if not larger, to the largest known volcanic perturbations. We propose to study the mechanical and thermal state of the atmosphere following an impact event. This will be done by using both one-dimensional and three-dimensional climate models. When necessary, modifications of the state-of-the-art general circulation models will b e carried out. We want to use the end-Cretaceous impact event as a case study. This allows us to take advantage of the extensive modeling of this impact event that has already been carried out through a previous Exobiology grant. Furthermore, a large experimental dataset, that can be used to constrain and test our models, is associated with the end-Cretaceous mass extinction (one of the largest of the Phanerozoic) and impact event.
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Iler, Amy M; Inouye, David W; Schmidt, Niels M; Høye, Toke T
2017-03-01
Time series have played a critical role in documenting how phenology responds to climate change. However, regressing phenological responses against climatic predictors involves the risk of finding potentially spurious climate-phenology relationships simply because both variables also change across years. Detrending by year is a way to address this issue. Additionally, detrending isolates interannual variation in phenology and climate, so that detrended climate-phenology relationships can represent statistical evidence of phenotypic plasticity. Using two flowering phenology time series from Colorado, USA and Greenland, we detrend flowering date and two climate predictors known to be important in these ecosystems: temperature and snowmelt date. In Colorado, all climate-phenology relationships persist after detrending. In Greenland, 75% of the temperature-phenology relationships disappear after detrending (three of four species). At both sites, the relationships that persist after detrending suggest that plasticity is a major component of sensitivity of flowering phenology to climate. Finally, simulations that created different strengths of correlations among year, climate, and phenology provide broader support for our two empirical case studies. This study highlights the utility of detrending to determine whether phenology is related to a climate variable in observational data sets. Applying this as a best practice will increase our understanding of phenological responses to climatic variation and change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.
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Representing climate change on public service television: A case study.
Debrett, Mary
2017-05-01
Publicly funded broadcasters with a track record in science programming would appear ideally placed to represent climate change to the lay public. Free from the constraints of vested interests and the economic imperative, public service providers are better equipped to represent the scientific, social and economic aspects of climate change than commercial media, where ownership conglomeration, corporate lobbyists and online competition have driven increasingly tabloid coverage with an emphasis on controversy. This prime-time snapshot of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's main television channel explores how the structural/rhetorical conventions of three established public service genres - a science programme, a documentary and a live public affairs talk show - impact on the representation of anthropogenic climate change. The study findings note implications for public trust, and discuss possibilities for innovation in the interests of better public understanding of climate change.
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Wardekker, J A; Wildschut, D; Stemberger, S; van der Sluijs, J P
2016-01-01
Freshwater systems provide various resources and services. These are often vulnerable to climate change and other pressures. Therefore, enhancing resilience to climate change is important for their long term viability. This paper explores how management options can be evaluated on their resilience implications. The approach included five steps: (1) characterizing the system, (2) characterizing the impacts of climate change and other disturbances, (3) inventorying management options, (4) assessing the impacts of these on climate resilience, and (5) follow-up analysis. For the resilience assessment, we used a set of 'resilience principles': homeostasis, omnivory, high flux, flatness, buffering, and redundancy. We applied the approach in a case study in a Dutch wetlands region. Many options in the region's management plan contribute to resilience, however, the plan underutilised several principles, particularly flatness, but also redundancy and omnivory for agriculture, and high flux for nature. Co-benefits was identified as an important additional criterion to obtain support for adaptation from local stakeholders, such as farmers. The approach provided a relatively quick and participatory way to screen options. It allowed us to consider multiple impacts and sectors, multiple dimensions of resilience, and stakeholder perspectives. The results can be used to identify gaps or pitfalls, and set priorities for follow-up analyses.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Duží, Barbora; Stojanov, Robert; Vikhrov, Dmytro
2013-04-01
We investigate regional and household adaptation strategies in the region affected by climate extremes, focusing on floods occurrence during past 15 years period. The main research question is: What is the overall state of adaptation measurements to climate extremes on the Bečva river basin? Target area is located along upper and middle part of the Bečva river basin in the east of the Czech Republic. The main theoretical concepts draw from differentiations between coping/adaptation strategies to climate extremes and theory of focusing event as a starter of changes in attention and agenda of problem solution. We apply mixed empirical research and case study approach. First we use qualitative research to serve as an initial entrance to the issue, to find out the perception of adaptation progress and preparedness to climate extremes on regional level. We conducted deep interviews (N=20) with relevant stakeholders. We proceed with quantitative research through the conducting face-to face questionnaires with household residents (N=305) in no, low and no risk area in relation to flood occurrence. We designed set of questions to find out relation among experiences with flood, the level of damages and applied emergency and adaptation measurements.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, J.; Nathan, R.; Horne, A.
2017-12-01
Traditional approaches to characterize water-dependent ecosystem outcomes in response to flow have been based on time-averaged hydrological indicators, however there is increasing recognition for the need to characterize ecological processes that are highly dependent on the sequencing of flow conditions (i.e. floods and droughts). This study considers the representation of flow regimes when considering assessment of ecological outcomes, and in particular, the need to account for sequencing and variability of flow. We conducted two case studies - one in the largely unregulated Ovens River catchment and one in the highly regulated Murray River catchment (both located in south-eastern Australia) - to explore the importance of flow sequencing to the condition of a typical long-lived ecological asset in Australia, the River Red Gum forests. In the first, the Ovens River case study, the implications of representing climate change using different downscaling methods (annual scaling, monthly scaling, quantile mapping, and weather generator method) on the sequencing of flows and resulting ecological outcomes were considered. In the second, the Murray River catchment, sequencing within a historic drought period was considered by systematically making modest adjustments on an annual basis to the hydrological records. In both cases, the condition of River Red Gum forests was assessed using an ecological model that incorporates transitions between ecological conditions in response to sequences of required flow components. The results of both studies show the importance of considering how hydrological alterations are represented when assessing ecological outcomes. The Ovens case study showed that there is significant variation in the predicted ecological outcomes when different downscaling techniques are applied. Similarly, the analysis in the Murray case study showed that the drought as it historically occurred provided one of the best possible outcomes for River Red Gum forests when compared to other re-arrangements of flow within the same drought. These results have implications for the way we represent climate change impacts and drought risk assessments where ecological outcomes are a key management objective.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Willems, Patrick
2015-04-01
Hydrological design parameters, which are currently used in the guidelines for the design of urban drainage systems (Willems et al., 2013) have been revised, taking the Flanders region of Belgium as case study. The revision involved extrapolation of the design rainfall statistics, taking into account the current knowledge on future climate change trends till 2100. Uncertainties in these trend projections have been assessed after statistically analysing and downscaling by a quantile perturbation tool based on a broad ensemble set of climate model simulation results (44 regional + 69 global control-scenario climate model run combinations for different greenhouse gas scenarios). The impact results of the climate scenarios were investigated as changes to rainfall intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. Thereafter, the climate scenarios and related changes in rainfall statistics were transferred to changes in flood frequencies of sewer systems and overflow frequencies of storage facilities. This has been done based on conceptual urban drainage models. Also the change in storage capacity required to exceed a given overflow return period, has been calculated for a range of return periods and infiltration or throughflow rates. These results were used on the basis of the revision of the hydraulic design rules of urban drainage systems. One of the major challenges while formulating these policy guidelines was the consideration of the huge uncertainties in the future climate change projections and impact assessments; see also the difficulties and pitfalls reported by the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage - Working group on urban rainfall (Willems et al., 2012). We made use of the risk concept, and found it a very useful approach to deal with the high uncertainties. It involves an impact study of the different climate projections, or - for practical reasons - a reduced set of climate scenarios tailored for the specific type of impact considered (urban floods in our case study), following the approach proposed by Ntegeka et al. (2014). When the consequences of given scenarios are high, they should be taken into account in the decision making process. For the Flanders' guidelines, it was agreed among the members of the regional Coordination Commission Integrated Water Management to consider (in addition to the traditional range of return periods up to 5 years) a 20-year design storm for scenario investigation. It was motivated by the outcome of this study that under the high climate scenario a 20-year storm would become - in order of magnitude - a 5-year storm. If after a design for a 5-year storm, the 20-year scenario investigation would conclude that specific zones along the sewer system would have severe additional impacts, it is recommended to apply changes to the system or to design flexible adaptation measures for the future (depending on which of the options would be most cost-efficient). Another adaptation action agreed was the installation of storm water infiltration devices at private houses and make these mandatory for new and renovated houses. Such installation was found to be cost-effective in any of the climate scenario's. This is one way of dealing with climate uncertainties, but lessons learned from other cases/applications are highly welcomed. References Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., Willems, P. (2014), 'Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments', Journal of Hydrology, 508C, 307-321 Willems, P. (2013). 'Revision of urban drainage design rules after assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation extremes at Uccle, Belgium', Journal of Hydrology, 496, 166-177 Willems, P., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Olsson, J., Nguyen, V.T.V. (2012), 'Climate change impact assessment on urban rainfall extremes and urban drainage: methods and shortcomings', Atmospheric Research, 103, 106-118
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Robin M. Reich; John E. Lundquist; Vanessa A. Bravo
2013-01-01
Insects are ectotherms that cannot regulate their own temperature, and thus rely on and are at the disposal of the surrounding environment. In this study, long-term climatic data are used to stratify forested regions of Alaska into climatic zones based on temperature and precipitation. Temperature and precipitation are shown to be important ecological drivers in...
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Implications of climate and land use change: Chapter 4
Hall, Jefferson S.; Murgueitio, Enrique; Calle, Zoraida; Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara; Stallard, Robert F.; Balvanera, Patricia; Hall, Jefferson S.; Kirn, Vanessa; Yanguas-Fernandez, Estrella
2015-01-01
This chapter relates ecosystem services to climate change and land use. The bulk of the chapter focuses on ecosystem services and steepland land use in the humid Neotropics – what is lost with land-cover changed, and what is gained with various types of restoration that are sustainable given private ownership. Many case studies are presented later in the white paper. The USGS contribution relates to climate change and the role of extreme weather events in land-use planning.
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TECA: A Parallel Toolkit for Extreme Climate Analysis
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Prabhat, Mr; Ruebel, Oliver; Byna, Surendra
2012-03-12
We present TECA, a parallel toolkit for detecting extreme events in large climate datasets. Modern climate datasets expose parallelism across a number of dimensions: spatial locations, timesteps and ensemble members. We design TECA to exploit these modes of parallelism and demonstrate a prototype implementation for detecting and tracking three classes of extreme events: tropical cyclones, extra-tropical cyclones and atmospheric rivers. We process a modern TB-sized CAM5 simulation dataset with TECA, and demonstrate good runtime performance for the three case studies.
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Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J
2013-01-15
The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to reduce climate change impacts statistically insignificant (i.e., for approximately one third of the investigated management units of the AFF case study), fostering adaptive capacity is suggested as the preferred pathway for adaptation. We conclude that climate change adaptation needs to balance between anticipating expected future conditions and building the capacity to address unknowns and surprises. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Frei, Allan; Nolin, Anne W.; Serreze, Mark C.; Armstrong, Richard L.; McGinnis, David L.; Robinson, David A.
2004-01-01
The purpose of this three-year study is to develop and evaluate techniques to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of climate change in mountainous areas. Three main objectives are set out in the proposal. (1) To develop and evaluate transfer functions to link tropospheric circulation to regional snowfall. (2) To evaluate a suite of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for use in estimating synoptic scale circulation and the resultant regional snowfall. And (3) to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of changing climate in the two case study areas: the Upper Colorado River basin, and the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York State. Both regions provide water to large populations.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Su, X.; Takahashi, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Tanaka, K.; Shiogama, H.; Emori, S.; LIU, J.; Hanasaki, N.; Hijioka, Y.; Masui, T.
2017-12-01
Large uncertainty exists in the temperature projections, including contributions from carbon cycle, climate system and aerosols. For the integrated assessment models (IAMs), like DICE, FUND and PAGE, however, the scientific uncertainties mainly rely on the distribution of (equilibrium) climate sensitivity. This study aims at evaluating the emission pathways by limiting temperature increase below 2.0 ºC or 1.5 ºC after 2100 considering scientific uncertainties, and exploring how socioeconomic indicators are affected by such scientific uncertainties. We use a stochastic version of the SCM4OPT, with an uncertainty measurement by considering alternative ranges of key parameters. Three climate cases, namely, i) base case of SSP2, ii) limiting temperature increase below 2.0 ºC after 2100 and iii) limiting temperature increase below 1.5 ºC after 2100, and three types of probabilities - i) >66% probability or likely, ii) >50% probability or more likely than not and iii) the mean of the probability distribution, are considered in the study. The results show that, i) for the 2.0ºC case, the likely CO2 reduction rate in 2100 ranges from 75.5%-102.4%, with mean value of 88.1%, and 93.0%-113.1% (mean 102.5%) for the 1.5ºC case; ii) a likely range of forcing effect is found for the 2.0 ºC case (2.7-3.9 Wm-2) due to scientific uncertainty, and 1.9-3.1 Wm-2 for the 1.5 ºC case; iii) the carbon prices within 50% confidential interval may differ a factor of 3 for both the 2.0ºC case and the 1.5 ºC case; iv) the abatement costs within 50% confidential interval may differ a factor of 4 for both the 2.0ºC case and the 1.5 ºC case. Nine C4MIP carbon cycle models and nineteen CMIP3 AOGCMs are used to account for the scientific uncertainties, following MAGICC 6.0. These uncertainties will result in a likely radiative forcing range of 6.1-7.5 Wm-2 and a likely temperature increase of 3.1-4.5 ºC in 2100 for the base case of SSP2. If we evaluate the 2 ºC target by limiting the temperature increase, a likely difference of up to 20.7 GtCO2-eq greenhouse gases (GHGs) in 2100 will occur in the assessment, or 14.4 GtCO2-eq GHGs difference for the 1.5 ºC case. The scientific uncertainties have significant impacts on evaluating costs of climate change and an appropriate representation of such uncertainties is important in the socioeconomic assessment.
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Ferreira de Souza, Rodrigo Augusto; Andreoli, Rita Valéria; Toshie Kayano, Mary; Lima Carvalho, Afrânio
2015-05-18
A temporal series of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and other environmental parameters covering the years 2002- 2009 was used for the study of the potential association between the climate and the number of cases of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Manaus Metropolitan Region (MMR), State of Amazonas, Brazil. The results show that CL has a marked seasonality and a strong linkage with local climate conditions. Dry and warm conditions favor the vector, while the maximum number of CL cases occurs during the following wet season. This has a clear relation to the El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the results presented here show that uncharacteristic dry conditions in the MMR follow El Niño after a lag period of 3 months, while wet conditions follow La Niña, again after a lag period of 3 months. El Niño brings dry conditions with warming of the land surface leading to increased growth of trees and bushes as indicated by rising NDVI values, eventually producing increased numbers of CL cases, with a peak of new cases occurring 4 to 5 months later. La Niña, on the other hand, produces wet and cool weather, which is less favorable for the leishmaniasis vector and therefore results in comparatively lower number of CL cases. Since these seasonal climate changes affect the dynamics of the CL vector, and thus the number of CL cases, a close watch of the ENSO phenomenon and the weather type it brings should be useful for monitoring and control of CL in the MMR.
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Climate change impacts in Iran: assessing our current knowledge
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rahimi, Jaber; Malekian, Arash; Khalili, Ali
2018-02-01
During recent years, various studies have focused on investigating the direct and indirect impacts of climate changes in Iran while the noteworthy fact is the achievement gained by these researches. Furthermore, what should be taken into consideration is whether these studies have been able to provide appropriate opportunities for improving further studies in this particular field or not. To address these questions, this study systematically reviewed and summarized the current available literature (n = 150) regarding the impacts of climate change on temperature and precipitation in Iran to assess our current state of knowledge. The results revealed that while all studies discuss the probable changes in temperature and precipitation over the next decades, serious contradictions could be seen in their results; also, the general pattern of changes was different in most of the cases. This matter may have a significant effect on public beliefs in climate change, which can be a serious warning for the activists in this realm.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Bedford, Daniel
2016-01-01
Educators seeking to address global warming in their classrooms face numerous challenges, including the question of whether student opinions about anthropogenic global warming (AGW) can change in response to increased knowledge about the climate system. This article analyzes survey responses from 458 students at a primarily undergraduate…
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Glisson, Charles; Dukes, Denzel; Green, Philip
2006-01-01
Objective: This study examines the effects of the Availability, Responsiveness, and Continuity (ARC) organizational intervention strategy on caseworker turnover, climate, and culture in a child welfare and juvenile justice system. Method: Using a pre-post, randomized blocks, true experimental design, 10 urban and 16 rural case management teams…
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Allison G. Danner; Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Charlotte Wickham; Desirée Tullos; Mary V. Santelmann
2017-01-01
Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology....
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College Students' Experiences with Anonymous Social Media: Implications for Campus Racial Climate
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Armstrong, Amanda; Thomas, Jaymi; Smith, Madeline
2017-01-01
The purpose of this exploratory case study was to gather undergraduate students' perceptions of anonymous racist messages found on Yik Yak and to better understand the implications of anonymous platforms on campus racial climate. Given the limited research surrounding students' use of anonymous social media platforms, as well as the predominant…
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Stakeholders’ engagement in promoting sustainable development: Businesses and urban forest carbon
N. C. Poudyal; J. P. Siry; J. M. Bowker
2012-01-01
To better understand how businessesâ motivation and support for green projects varies by their organizational objectives and characteristics, this study investigates a case of urban forestry carbon credits in a broader context of climate change mitigation efforts. Companies and organizations currently participating in the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) were surveyed...
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Daniel Murphy; Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel R. Williams; Cory Cleveland; Lisa Eby; Solomon Dobrowski; Erin Towler
2016-01-01
Current projections of future climate change foretell potentially transformative ecological changes that threaten communities globally. Using two case studies from the United States Intermountain West, this article highlights the ways in which a better articulation between theory and methods in research design can generate proactive applied tools that enable...
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Batisani, Nnyaladzi; Ndiane, Abijah
2014-01-01
Purpose: This paper aims to report on the results of a case study in Botswana, aimed at raising awareness on climate issues. Higher-education institutions play a leading role in sustainability efforts, as their research role often lays the groundwork for social transformation. Design/methodology/approach: The Clean Air-Cool Planet (CACP) campus…
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Teleconnections in the Presence of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Annular Modes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gerber, Edwin; Baldwin, Mark
2010-05-01
Long model integrations of future and past climates present a problem for defining teleconnection patterns through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or correlation analysis when trends in the underlying climate begin to dominate the covariance structure. Similar issues may soon appear in observations as the record becomes longer, especially if climate trends accelerate. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes provide a prime example, because the poleward shift of the jet streams strongly projects onto these patterns, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate forecasts of the 21st century by chemistry climate models provide a case study. Computation of the annular modes in these long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The new procedure involves two key changes. First, the global mean geopotential height is removed at each time step before computing anomalies. This is particularly important high in the atmosphere, where seasonal variations in geopotential height become significant, and filters out trends due to changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Pattern definition can be very sensitive near the tropopause, as regions of the atmosphere that used to be more of stratospheric character begin to take on tropospheric characteristics as the tropopause rises. The second change is to define anomalies relative to a slowly evolving seasonal climatology, so that the covariance structure reflects internal variability. Once these changes are accounted for, it is found that the zonal mean variability of the atmosphere stays remarkably constant, despite significant changes in the baseline climate forecast for the rest of the century. This stability of the internal variability makes it possible to relate trends in climate to teleconnections.
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Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.
Carlton, Stuart J; Jacobson, Susan K
2013-11-30
Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Climate Voices: Bridging Scientist Citizens and Local Communities across the United States
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wegner, K.; Ristvey, J. D., Jr.
2016-12-01
Based out of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), the Climate Voices Science Speakers Network (climatevoices.org) has more than 400 participants across the United States that volunteer their time as scientist citizens in their local communities. Climate Voices experts engage in nonpartisan conversations about the local impacts of climate change with groups such as Rotary clubs, collaborate with faith-based groups on climate action initiatives, and disseminate their research findings to K-12 teachers and classrooms through webinars. To support their participants, Climate Voices develops partnerships with networks of community groups, provides trainings on how to engage these communities, and actively seeks community feedback. In this presentation, we will share case studies of science-community collaborations, including meta-analyses of collaborations and lessons learned.
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Climate Change, Public Health, and Policy: A California Case Study
Smith, Jason A.
2018-01-01
Anthropogenic activity will bring immediate changes and disruptions to the global climate with accompanying health implications. Although policymakers and public health advocates are beginning to acknowledge the health implications of climate change, current policy approaches are lagging behind. We proposed that 4 key policy principles are critical to successful policymaking in this arena: mainstreaming, linking mitigation and adaptation policy, applying population perspectives, and coordination. We explored California’s progress in addressing the public health challenges of climate change in the San Joaquin Valley as an example. We discussed issues of mental health and climate change, and used the San Joaquin Valley of California as an example to explore policy approaches to health issues and climate change. The California experience is instructive for other jurisdictions. PMID:29072936
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rice, J.; Joyce, L. A.; Armel, B.; Bevenger, G.; Zubic, R.
2011-12-01
Climate change introduces a significant challenge for land managers and decision makers managing the natural resources that provide many benefits from forests. These benefits include water for urban and agricultural uses, wildlife habitat, erosion and climate control, aquifer recharge, stream flows regulation, water temperature regulation, and cultural services such as outdoor recreation and aesthetic enjoyment. The Forest Service has responded to this challenge by developing a national strategy for responding to climate change (the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change, July 2010). In concert with this national strategy, the Forest Service's Westwide Climate Initiative has conducted 4 case studies on individual Forests in the western U.S to develop climate adaptation tools. Western National Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they have high-mountain topography, diversity in climate and vegetation, large areas of water limited ecosystems, and increasing urbanization. Information about the vulnerability and capacity of resources to adapt to climate change and extremes is lacking. There is an urgent need to provide customized tools and synthesized local scale information about the impacts to resources from future climate change and extremes, as well as develop science based adaptation options and strategies in National Forest management and planning. The case study on the Shoshone National Forest has aligned its objectives with management needs by developing a climate extreme vulnerability tool that guides adaptation options development. The vulnerability tool determines the likely degree to which native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and water availability are susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change extremes. We spatially categorize vulnerability for water and native trout resources using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators that use minimum and maximum climate and GIS data. Results show that the vulnerability of water availability may increase in areas that have less storage and become more dominated by rain instead of snow. Native trout habitat was found to improve in some areas from warmer temperatures suggesting future refugia habitat may need to be a focus of conservation efforts. The climate extreme vulnerability tool provides Forest Service resource managers science based information that guides adaptation strategy development; prioritize conservation projects; guides monitoring efforts, and helps promote more resilient ecosystems undergoing the effects of climate change.
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Assessing the Costs and Benefits of Resilience Investments: Tennessee Valley Authority Case Study
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Allen, Melissa R.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Preston, Benjamin L.
This report describes a general approach for assessing climate change vulnerabilities of an electricity system and evaluating the costs and benefits of certain investments that would increase system resilience. It uses Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) as a case study, concentrating on the Cumberland River basin area on the northern side of the TVA region. The study focuses in particular on evaluating risks associated with extreme heat wave and drought conditions that could be expected to affect the region by mid-century. Extreme climate event scenarios were developed using a combination of dynamically downscaled output from the Community Earth System Model andmore » historical heat wave and drought conditions in 1993 and 2007, respectively.« less
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Andrade, L; O'Dwyer, J; O'Neill, E; Hynds, P
2018-05-01
Significant volumes of research over the past four decades has sought to elucidate the social, infrastructural, economic, and human health effects of climate change induced surface flooding. To date, epidemiological and public health studies of flooding events have focused on mental health effects, vector-borne diseases, and infectious enteric disease due to floodwater contact (i.e. typically low consumption rates). The inherent nature of groundwater (i.e. out of sight, out of mind) and the widely held belief that aquifers represent a pristine source of drinking water due to natural attenuation may represent the "perfect storm" causing direct consumption of relatively large volumes of surface flood-contaminated groundwater. Accordingly, the current study sought to systematically identify and synthesize all available peer-reviewed literature pertaining to the nexus between surface flooding, groundwater contamination and human gastroenteric outcomes. Just 14 relevant studies were found to have been published during the period 1980-2017, thus highlighting the fact that this potentially significant source of climate-related exposure to environmental infection has remained understudied to date. Studies differed significantly in terms of type and data reporting procedures, making it difficult to discern clear trends and patterns. Approximately 945 confirmed cases of flood-related enteric disease were examined across studies; these concurred with almost 10,000 suspected cases, equating to approximately 20 suspected cases per confirmed case. As such, no regional, national or global estimates are available for the human gastrointestinal health burden of flood-related groundwater contamination. In light of the demonstrable public health significance of the concurrent impacts of groundwater susceptibility and climate change exacerbation, strategies to increase awareness about potential sources of contamination and motivate precautionary behaviour (e.g. drinking water testing and treatment, supply interruptions) are necessary. Mainstreaming climate adaptation concerns into planning policies will also be necessary to reduce human exposure to waterborne sources of enteric infection. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sierra, Katherine; Roberts, Timmons; de Nevers, Michele
Are climate finance contributor countries, multilateral aid agencies and specialized funds using widely accepted best practices in foreign assistance? How is it possible to measure and compare international climate finance contributions when there are as yet no established metrics or agreed definitions of the quality of climate finance? As a subjective metric, quality can mean different things to different stakeholders, while of donor countries, recipients and institutional actors may place quality across a broad spectrum of objectives. This subjectivity makes the assessment of the quality of climate finance contributions a useful and necessary exercise, but one that has many challenges.more » This work seeks to enhance the development of common definitions and metrics of the quality of climate finance, to understand what we can about those areas where climate finance information is available and shine a light on the areas where there is a severe dearth of data. Allowing for comparisons of the use of best practices across funding institutions in the climate sector could begin a process of benchmarking performance, fostering learning across institutions and driving improvements when incorporated in internal evaluation protocols of those institutions. In the medium term, this kind of benchmarking and transparency could support fundraising in contributor countries and help build trust with recipient countries. As a feasibility study, this paper attempts to outline the importance of assessing international climate finance contributions while describing the difficulties in arriving at universally agreed measurements and indicators for assessment. In many cases, data are neither readily available nor complete, and there is no consensus on what should be included. A number of indicators are proposed in this study as a starting point with which to analyze voluntary contributions, but in some cases their methodologies are not complete, and further research is required for a robust measurement tool to be created.« less
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Córdoba-Jabonero, Carmen; Sicard, Michaël; Ansmann, Albert; Águila, Ana del; Baars, Holger
2018-04-01
POLIPHON (POlarization-LIdar PHOtometer Networking) retrieval consists in the vertical separation of two/three particle components in aerosol mixtures, highlighting their relative contributions in terms of the optical properties and mass concentrations. This method is based on the specific particle linear depolarization ratio given for different types of aerosols, and is applied to the new polarized Micro-Pulse Lidar (P-MPL). Case studies of specific climate-relevant aerosols (dust particles, fire smoke, and pollen aerosols, including a clean case as reference) observed over Barcelona (Spain) are presented in order to evaluate firstly the potential of P-MPLs measurements in combination with POLIPHON for retrieving the vertical separation of those particle components forming aerosol mixtures and their properties.
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Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Muñoz, Ángel G; Ryan, Sadie J; Ayala, Efraín Beltrán; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J; Finkelstein, Julia L; Mejía, Raúl; Ordoñez, Tania; Recalde-Coronel, G Cristina; Rivero, Keytia
2014-11-25
Dengue fever, a mosquito-borne viral disease, is a rapidly emerging public health problem in Ecuador and throughout the tropics. However, we have a limited understanding of the disease transmission dynamics in these regions. Previous studies in southern coastal Ecuador have demonstrated the potential to develop a dengue early warning system (EWS) that incorporates climate and non-climate information. The objective of this study was to characterize the spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic and social-ecological risk factors associated with the largest dengue epidemic to date in Machala, Ecuador, to inform the development of a dengue EWS. The following data from Machala were included in analyses: neighborhood-level georeferenced dengue cases, national census data, and entomological surveillance data from 2010; and time series of weekly dengue cases (aggregated to the city-level) and meteorological data from 2003 to 2012. We applied LISA and Moran's I to analyze the spatial distribution of the 2010 dengue cases, and developed multivariate logistic regression models through a multi-model selection process to identify census variables and entomological covariates associated with the presence of dengue at the neighborhood level. Using data aggregated at the city-level, we conducted a time-series (wavelet) analysis of weekly climate and dengue incidence (2003-2012) to identify significant time periods (e.g., annual, biannual) when climate co-varied with dengue, and to describe the climate conditions associated with the 2010 outbreak. We found significant hotspots of dengue transmission near the center of Machala. The best-fit model to predict the presence of dengue included older age and female gender of the head of the household, greater access to piped water in the home, poor housing condition, and less distance to the central hospital. Wavelet analyses revealed that dengue transmission co-varied with rainfall and minimum temperature at annual and biannual cycles, and we found that anomalously high rainfall and temperatures were associated with the 2010 outbreak. Our findings highlight the importance of geospatial information in dengue surveillance and the potential to develop a climate-driven spatiotemporal prediction model to inform disease prevention and control interventions. This study provides an operational methodological framework that can be applied to understand the drivers of local dengue risk.
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Hedlund, Christina; Blomstedt, Yulia; Schumann, Barbara
2014-01-01
Background The Arctic and subarctic area are likely to be highly affected by climate change, with possible impacts on human health due to effects on food security and infectious diseases. Objectives To investigate the evidence for an association between climatic factors and infectious diseases, and to identify the most climate-sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations in the Arctic and subarctic region. Methods A systematic review was conducted. A search was made in PubMed, with the last update in May 2013. Inclusion criteria included human cases of infectious disease as outcome, climate or weather factor as exposure, and Arctic or subarctic areas as study origin. Narrative reviews, case reports, and projection studies were excluded. Abstracts and selected full texts were read and evaluated by two independent readers. A data collection sheet and an adjusted version of the SIGN methodology checklist were used to assess the quality grade of each article. Results In total, 1953 abstracts were initially found, of which finally 29 articles were included. Almost half of the studies were carried out in Canada (n=14), the rest from Sweden (n=6), Finland (n=4), Norway (n=2), Russia (n=2), and Alaska, US (n=1). Articles were analyzed by disease group: food- and waterborne diseases, vector-borne diseases, airborne viral- and airborne bacterial diseases. Strong evidence was found in our review for an association between climatic factors and food- and waterborne diseases. The scientific evidence for a link between climate and specific vector- and rodent-borne diseases was weak due to that only a few diseases being addressed in more than one publication, although several articles were of very high quality. Air temperature and humidity seem to be important climatic factors to investigate further for viral- and bacterial airborne diseases, but from our results no conclusion about a causal relationship could be drawn. Conclusions More studies of high quality are needed to investigate the adverse health impacts of weather and climatic factors in the Arctic and subarctic region. No studies from Greenland or Iceland were found, and only a few from Siberia and Alaska. Disease and syndromic surveillance should be part of climate change adaptation measures in the Arctic and subarctic regions, with monitoring of extreme weather events known to pose a risk for certain infectious diseases implemented at the community level. PMID:24990685
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata
2016-04-01
Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the project CHIHE (Climate Change Impact on Hydrological Extremes), carried out in the Institute of Geophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, funded by Norway Grants (contract No. Pol-Nor/196243/80/2013). The hydro-meteorological observations were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland.
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Hedlund, Christina; Blomstedt, Yulia; Schumann, Barbara
2014-01-01
The Arctic and subarctic area are likely to be highly affected by climate change, with possible impacts on human health due to effects on food security and infectious diseases. To investigate the evidence for an association between climatic factors and infectious diseases, and to identify the most climate-sensitive diseases and vulnerable populations in the Arctic and subarctic region. A systematic review was conducted. A search was made in PubMed, with the last update in May 2013. Inclusion criteria included human cases of infectious disease as outcome, climate or weather factor as exposure, and Arctic or subarctic areas as study origin. Narrative reviews, case reports, and projection studies were excluded. Abstracts and selected full texts were read and evaluated by two independent readers. A data collection sheet and an adjusted version of the SIGN methodology checklist were used to assess the quality grade of each article. In total, 1953 abstracts were initially found, of which finally 29 articles were included. Almost half of the studies were carried out in Canada (n=14), the rest from Sweden (n=6), Finland (n=4), Norway (n=2), Russia (n=2), and Alaska, US (n=1). Articles were analyzed by disease group: food- and waterborne diseases, vector-borne diseases, airborne viral- and airborne bacterial diseases. Strong evidence was found in our review for an association between climatic factors and food- and waterborne diseases. The scientific evidence for a link between climate and specific vector- and rodent-borne diseases was weak due to that only a few diseases being addressed in more than one publication, although several articles were of very high quality. Air temperature and humidity seem to be important climatic factors to investigate further for viral- and bacterial airborne diseases, but from our results no conclusion about a causal relationship could be drawn. More studies of high quality are needed to investigate the adverse health impacts of weather and climatic factors in the Arctic and subarctic region. No studies from Greenland or Iceland were found, and only a few from Siberia and Alaska. Disease and syndromic surveillance should be part of climate change adaptation measures in the Arctic and subarctic regions, with monitoring of extreme weather events known to pose a risk for certain infectious diseases implemented at the community level.
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Stormwater Non-Potable Beneficial Uses and Effects on Urban Infrastructure (WERF Report INFR3SG09)
This project shows that lessons learned and successes from a wide variety of international stormwater beneficial use projects cover a range of conditions that may be found in the U.S. Examined are case studies from developing countries in both arid and wet climates, case studies...
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USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database
We present case studies supporting management of two rare plant species in tidal wetlands of the San Francisco Estuary. For an annual hemiparasite, we used demographic analyses to identify factors to enhance population establishment, survivorship and fitness, and to compare reintroduced with natura...
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This case study for the Albuquerque, New Mexico area was conducted under contract with the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Office of Research and Development using the System for Urban Stormwater Treatment and Integration Analysis (SUSTAIN). The effort focuses on inve...
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Technology Solutions Case Study: Field Testing an Unvented Roof with Fibrous Insulation and Tiles
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
None
This case study by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Building America research team Building Science Corporation is a test implementation of an unvented tile roof assembly in a hot-humid climate (Orlando, Florida; zone 2A), insulated with air-permeable insulation (netted and blown fiberglass).
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Case study for the assessment of the biogeophysical effects of a potential afforestation in Europe
2013-01-01
Background A regional-scale sensitivity study has been carried out to investigate the climatic effects of forest cover change in Europe. Applying REMO (regional climate model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology), the projected temperature and precipitation tendencies have been analysed for summer, based on the results of the A2 IPCC-SRES emission scenario simulation. For the end of the 21st century it has been studied, whether the assumed forest cover increase could reduce the effects of the greenhouse gas concentration change. Results Based on the simulation results, biogeophysical effects of the hypothetic potential afforestation may lead to cooler and moister conditions during summer in most parts of the temperate zone. The largest relative effects of forest cover increase can be expected in northern Germany, Poland and Ukraine, which is 15–20% of the climate change signal for temperature and more than 50% for precipitation. In northern Germany and France, potential afforestation may enhance the effects of emission change, resulting in more severe heavy precipitation events. The probability of dry days and warm temperature extremes would decrease. Conclusions Large contiguous forest blocks can have distinctive biogeophysical effect on the climate on regional and local scale. In certain regions of the temperate zone, climate change signal due to greenhouse gas emission can be reduced by afforestation due to the dominant evaporative cooling effect during summer. Results of this case study with a hypothetical land cover change can contribute to the assessment of the role of forests in adapting to climate change. Thus they can build an important basis of the future forest policy. PMID:23369380
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chegwidden, O.; Nijssen, B.; Rupp, D. E.; Kao, S. C.; Clark, M. P.
2017-12-01
We describe results from a large hydrologic climate change dataset developed across the Pacific Northwestern United States and discuss how the analysis of those results can be seen as a framework for other large hydrologic ensemble investigations. This investigation will better inform future modeling efforts and large ensemble analyses across domains within and beyond the Pacific Northwest. Using outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we provide projections of hydrologic change for the domain through the end of the 21st century. The dataset is based upon permutations of four methodological choices: (1) ten global climate models (2) two representative concentration pathways (3) three meteorological downscaling methods and (4) four unique hydrologic model set-ups (three of which entail the same hydrologic model using independently calibrated parameter sets). All simulations were conducted across the Columbia River Basin and Pacific coastal drainages at a 1/16th ( 6 km) resolution and at a daily timestep. In total, the 172 distinct simulations offer an updated, comprehensive view of climate change projections through the end of the 21st century. The results consist of routed streamflow at 400 sites throughout the domain as well as distributed spatial fields of relevant hydrologic variables like snow water equivalent and soil moisture. In this presentation, we discuss the level of agreement with previous hydrologic projections for the study area and how these projections differ with specific methodological choices. By controlling for some methodological choices we can show how each choice affects key climatic change metrics. We discuss how the spread in results varies across hydroclimatic regimes. We will use this large dataset as a case study for distilling a wide range of hydroclimatological projections into useful climate change assessments.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Seo, Seung Beom; Kim, Young-Oh; Kim, Youngil; Eum, Hyung-Il
2018-04-01
When selecting a subset of climate change scenarios (GCM models), the priority is to ensure that the subset reflects the comprehensive range of possible model results for all variables concerned. Though many studies have attempted to improve the scenario selection, there is a lack of studies that discuss methods to ensure that the results from a subset of climate models contain the same range of uncertainty in hydrologic variables as when all models are considered. We applied the Katsavounidis-Kuo-Zhang (KKZ) algorithm to select a subset of climate change scenarios and demonstrated its ability to reduce the number of GCM models in an ensemble, while the ranges of multiple climate extremes indices were preserved. First, we analyzed the role of 27 ETCCDI climate extremes indices for scenario selection and selected the representative climate extreme indices. Before the selection of a subset, we excluded a few deficient GCM models that could not represent the observed climate regime. Subsequently, we discovered that a subset of GCM models selected by the KKZ algorithm with the representative climate extreme indices could not capture the full potential range of changes in hydrologic extremes (e.g., 3-day peak flow and 7-day low flow) in some regional case studies. However, the application of the KKZ algorithm with a different set of climate indices, which are correlated to the hydrologic extremes, enabled the overcoming of this limitation. Key climate indices, dependent on the hydrologic extremes to be projected, must therefore be determined prior to the selection of a subset of GCM models.
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Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Water-Energy Nexus
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mo, W.; Jacobs, J. M.
2014-12-01
Water-energy nexus refers to the fact that a lot of energy is used for treating and delivering water, and a large amount of water is needed for energy production. This interrelation reinforces water and energy consumptions and challenges the sustainable management of both resources in light of growing population, developing economy, and dwindling resources. Climate change often exacerbates the negative effects of the water-energy nexus by intervening water and energy allocation, availability, and quality, forcing communities to seek more energy dependent alternative water sources and/or more water dependent alternative energy sources. The climate-water-energy interrelations play an important role in water and energy management, yet our understandings on the interactions between climate and the water-energy nexus are still very limited. Therefore, this study aims at qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the impacts of climate change from the water-energy nexus perspective by investigating previous literatures, case studies, climate change patterns, and recent extreme climate events. Management difficulties resulted from climate related source shifts as well as policy and regulation changes will be illustrated and discussed. Research needs and gaps on the climate-water-energy interrelations will be addressed.
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Prevots, D Rebecca; Adjemian, Jennifer; Fernandez, Aisling G; Knowles, Michael R; Olivier, Kenneth N
2014-09-01
Persons with cystic fibrosis are at high risk of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacterial infection, with a national prevalence estimated at 13%. The risk of nontuberculous mycobacteria associated with specific environmental exposures, and the correlation with climatic conditions in this population has not been described. To describe the association of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria with individual exposures to water and soil aerosols, and the population associations of these infections with climatic factors. We conducted a nested case-control study within a cohort study of pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria prevalence at 21 geographically diverse national cystic fibrosis centers. Incident nontuberculous mycobacterial infection cases (at least one prior negative culture followed by one positive culture) were age- and sex-matched to culture-negative controls. Exposures to water and soil were assessed by administering a standardized questionnaire. Cohort prevalence at each of the 21 centers was correlated with climatic conditions in the same area through linear regression modeling. Overall, 48 cases and 85 control subjects were enrolled. Indoor swimming was associated with incident infection (adjusted odds ratio, 5.9, 95% confidence interval, 1.3-26.1), although only nine cases (19%) and five control subjects (6%) reported indoor swimming in the 4 months prior to infection. Exposure to showering and municipal water supply was common among both cases and control subjects: 77% of cases and 76% of control subjects reported showering at least daily. In linear regression, average annual atmospheric water vapor content was significantly predictive of center prevalence (P = 0.0019), with R(2) = 0.40. Atmospheric conditions explain more of the variation in disease prevalence than individual behaviors. The risk of specific exposures may vary by geographic region due to differences in conditions favoring mycobacterial growth and survival. However, because exposure to these organisms is ubiquitous and behaviors are similar among persons with and without pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria, genetic susceptibility beyond cystic fibrosis is likely to be important for disease development. Common individual risk factors in high-risk populations remain to be identified.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1981-01-01
Progress in the study of the intensity of the urban heat island is reported. The intensity of the heat island is commonly defined as the temperature difference between the center of the city and the surrounding suburban and rural regions. The intensity is considered as a function of changes in the season and changes in meteorological conditions in order to derive various parameters which may be used in numerical models for urban climate. Twelve case studies were selected and CCT's were ordered. In situ data was obtained from sixteen stations scattered about the city of St. Louis. Upper-air meteorological data were obtained and the water vapor and the temperature data were processed. Atmospheric transmissivities were computed for each of the case studies.
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Potchter, Oded; Cohen, Pninit; Lin, Tzu-Ping; Matzarakis, Andreas
2018-08-01
Over the past century, many research studies have been conducted in an attempt to define thermal conditions for humans in the outdoor environment and to grade thermal sensation. Consequently, a large number of indices have been proposed. The examination of human thermal indices by thermal subjective perception has become recently a methodical issue to confirm the accuracy, applicability and validation of human thermal indices. The aims of this study are: (a) to review studies containing both calculated human thermal conditions and subjective thermal perception in the outdoor environment (b) to identify the most used human thermal indices for evaluating human thermal perception (c) to examine the relation between human thermal comfort range and outdoor thermal environment conditions and (d) to compare between categories of thermal sensation in different climatic zones based on subjective perception and levels of thermal strain. A comprehensive literature review identified 110 peer-reviewed articles which investigated in-situ thermal conditions versus subjective thermal perception during 2001-2017. It seems that out of 165 human thermal indices that have been developed, only 4 (PET, PMV, UTCI, SET*) are widely in use for outdoor thermal perception studies. Examination of the relation between human thermal comfort range and outdoor thermal environment conditions for selective indices in different climatic zones shows that the range of the thermal comfort or dis-comfort is affected by the outdoor thermal environment. For the PET index, the "neutral" range for hot climates of 24-26°C is agreed by 95% of the studies where for cold climate, the "neutral" range of 15-20°C is agreed by 89% of the studies. For the UTCI, the "no thermal stress" category is common to all climates. The "no stress category" of 16-23°C is agreed by 80% of the case studies, while 100% of the case studies agreed that the range is between 18 and 23°C. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Nastiti, S. I. W.; Kusnoputranto, H.; Boer, R.; Utomo, S. W.
2018-03-01
The demand for clean water in South Tangerang, Indonesia, is very high. At present, this demand is mostly met by groundwater that is much influenced by climate variability, land cover change, and human activities. The local company on water services (PDAM) provides clean water services for only about 9% of the population. The climate risk assessment conducted by South Tangerang Government in 2016 indicates that several areas are potentially exposed to a high risk of climate change. Survey and in-depth interview with communities and sectoral officers suggest that a risk to clean water supply in this city is increasing. This study aims to assess climate potential risks on clean water supply based on the 2016 study. We adopted the method of that study by modifying some of the vulnerability indicators that can represent clean water access and supply. The results of the study demonstrate that many wards in South Tangerang would be exposed to high climate risks of clean water supply. By 2021, about 54% of wards would be exposed from high to the very very high risk of clean water supply. These results signify the tangible need of adaptation actions, to prevent the worsening impacts of climate on clean water supply.
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Approaches to local climate action in Colorado
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Huang, Y. D.
2011-12-01
Though climate change is a global problem, the impacts are felt on the local scale; it follows that the solutions must come at the local level. Fortunately, many cities and municipalities are implementing climate mitigation (or climate action) policies and programs. However, they face many procedural and institutional barriers to their efforts, such of lack of expertise or data, limited human and financial resources, and lack of community engagement (Krause 2011). To address the first obstacle, thirteen in-depth case studies were done of successful model practices ("best practices") of climate action programs carried out by various cities, counties, and organizations in Colorado, and one outside Colorado, and developed into "how-to guides" for other municipalities to use. Research was conducted by reading documents (e.g. annual reports, community guides, city websites), email correspondence with program managers and city officials, and via phone interviews. The information gathered was then compiled into a series of reports containing a narrative description of the initiative; an overview of the plan elements (target audience and goals); implementation strategies and any indicators of success to date (e.g. GHG emissions reductions, cost savings); and the adoption or approval process, as well as community engagement efforts and marketing or messaging strategies. The types of programs covered were energy action plans, energy efficiency programs, renewable energy programs, and transportation and land use programs. Between the thirteen case studies, there was a range of approaches to implementing local climate action programs, examined along two dimensions: focus on climate change (whether it was direct/explicit or indirect/implicit) and extent of government authority. This benchmarking exercise affirmed the conventional wisdom propounded by Pitt (2010), that peer pressure (that is, the presence of neighboring jurisdictions with climate initiatives), the level of community engagement and enthusiasm, and most importantly staff members dedicated to the area of climate planning have a significant effect on climate mitigation policy adoption. In addition, it supported the claim asserted by Toly (2008) that an emphasis on economic co-benefits perpetuates the principle that economic growth need not be compromised when addressing climate change and weakens our capacity to shift toward a bolder paradigm in what is politically achievable in climate legislation.
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Leisner, Courtney P; Wood, Joshua C; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S; Robin Buell, C; Winkler, Julie A
2018-04-01
Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Drewes, Andrea; Henderson, Joseph; Mouza, Chrystalla
2018-01-01
Climate change is one of the most pressing challenges facing society, and climate change educational models are emerging in response. This study investigates the implementation and enactment of a climate change professional development (PD) model for science educators and its impact on student learning. Using an intrinsic case study methodology, we focused analytic attention on how one teacher made particular pedagogical and content decisions, and the implications for student's conceptual learning. Using anthropological theories of conceptual travel, we traced salient ideas through instructional delivery and into student reasoning. Analysis showed that students gained an increased understanding of the enhanced greenhouse effect and the implications of human activity on this enhanced effect at statistically significant levels and with moderate effect sizes. However, students demonstrated a limited, though non-significant gain on the likely effects of climate change. Student reasoning on the tangible actions to deal with these problems also remained underdeveloped, reflecting omissions in both PD and teacher enactment. We discuss implications for the emerging field of climate change education.
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Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.
1997-04-01
If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Omitaomu, Olufemi A.; Carvalhaes, Thomaz M.
Census American Community Survey 2008-2012 data are used to construct a spatially explicit Climate-Induced Social Vulnerability Index (CSVI) for the East Tennessee area. This CSVI is a combination of a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) and a Climate Index. A method is replicated and adapted to derive a custom SVI by Census tract for the counties participating in the East Tennessee Index, and a Climate Index is developed for the same area based on indicators for climate hazards. The resulting datasets are exported as a raster to be integrated and combined within the Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT) to act asmore » an indicator for communities which may be differentially vulnerable to changes in climate. Results for the SVI are mapped separately from the complete CSVI in this document as results for the latter are in development.« less
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Vezér, Martin A
2016-04-01
To study climate change, scientists employ computer models, which approximate target systems with various levels of skill. Given the imperfection of climate models, how do scientists use simulations to generate knowledge about the causes of observed climate change? Addressing a similar question in the context of biological modelling, Levins (1966) proposed an account grounded in robustness analysis. Recent philosophical discussions dispute the confirmatory power of robustness, raising the question of how the results of computer modelling studies contribute to the body of evidence supporting hypotheses about climate change. Expanding on Staley's (2004) distinction between evidential strength and security, and Lloyd's (2015) argument connecting variety-of-evidence inferences and robustness analysis, I address this question with respect to recent challenges to the epistemology robustness analysis. Applying this epistemology to case studies of climate change, I argue that, despite imperfections in climate models, and epistemic constraints on variety-of-evidence reasoning and robustness analysis, this framework accounts for the strength and security of evidence supporting climatological inferences, including the finding that global warming is occurring and its primary causes are anthropogenic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Towards a macrosystems approach for successful coastal ...
Managing coastal resources for resiliency and sustainability often requires integrative, multi-disciplinary approaches across varying spatial and temporal scales to engage stakeholders and inform decision-makers. We discuss case studies integrating wetland ecology, economics, sociology and other disciplines to help solve management problems, especially those concerning increasing nutrient loads and climate change (e.g., accelerated sea level rise, increased flooding, warming temperatures). One goal of the macrosystems approach is to provide the science necessary to assess tradeoffs for different management, restoration, and climate adaptation actions. In the first case study we examine the conversion of a cranberry farm in New England to a freshwater wetland with connectivity to Cape Cod Bay (MA). A second example examines climate adaptation actions in coastal wetlands of the northeastern US to mitigate accelerated sea level rise. Various restoration actions (e.g., dam removal, hydrological engineering) and climate adaptation interventions (e.g., living shoreline, thin layer sediment application) are underway, and we discuss the adaptive management and macrosystems approaches for each example. One focus of management actions is the provision of select ecosystem services. For each study, we discuss tradeoffs in the provision of services from different actions. By presenting examples of how a macrosystems approach works in practice, we hope to show its transferabi
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Adolescent depression: social network and family climate--a case-control study.
Olsson, G I; Nordström, M L; Arinell, H; von Knorring, A L
1999-02-01
In a study of a total high-school population, 2300 students aged 16-17 years were screened for depression (BDI, CES-DC). Those with a self-evaluation indicating depression, together with controls matched for sex, age, and class were interviewed (DICA-R-A). The 177 pairs, where both individuals were interviewed and the control had no lifetime diagnosis of depression, were analysed in the form of paired differences for psychosocial factors and compared within diagnostic groups. The psychosocial factors were measured with the ISSI subscales and six attitude questions about family climate (KSP). Adolescents with an episode of major depression during part of the last year did not differ from their controls. Those with long-lasting depressive symptoms, i.e. dysthymia with or without episodes of major depression, had a more limited social interaction and were not satisfied with it. They also evaluated their family climate and attachment network as being more inadequate than did their controls. Depressed adolescents with comorbid conduct disorder had a more negative evaluation of availability and adequacy of both social interaction and attachment network than their controls. This group had a very negative view of their family climate. Since this is a case-control study conclusions cannot be drawn about cause and effect.
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Louis R. Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Mark W. Schwartz; Mark W. Schwartz
1999-01-01
We are using a deterministic regression tree analysis model (DISTRIB) and a stochastic migration model (SHIFT) to examine potential distributions of ~66 individual species of eastern US trees under a 2 x CO2 climate change scenario. This process is demonstrated for Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana).
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Pharo, E. J.; Davison, A.; Warr, K.; Nursey-Bray, M.; Beswick, K.; Wapstra, E.; Jones, C.
2012-01-01
A teacher network was formed at an Australian university in order to better promote interdisciplinary student learning on the complex social-environmental problem of climate change. Rather than leaving it to students to piece together disciplinary responses, eight teaching academics collaborated on the task of exposing students to different types…
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Abdulai, Issaka; Vaast, Philippe; Hoffmann, Munir P; Asare, Richard; Jassogne, Laurence; Asten, Piet Van; Rötter, Reimund P; Graefe, Sophie
2018-05-01
Resilience of cocoa agroforestry vs. full sun under extreme climatic conditions. In the specific case of our study, the two shade tree species associated with cocoa resulted in strong competition for water and became a disadvantage to the cocoa plants contrary to expected positive effects. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Allen, Walter; Griffin, Kimberly
2006-01-01
A multi-site case study analyzed the college preparatory processes of nine African American high achievers attending a well-resourced, suburban high school and eight academically successful African Americans attending a low-resourced urban school. Students at both schools experienced barriers, that is, racial climate and a lack of resources, that…
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;
2017-01-01
Ideally, the results from models operating at different scales should agree in trend direction and magnitude of impacts under climate change. However, this implies that the sensitivity to climate variability and climate change is comparable for impact models designed for either scale. In this study, we compare hydrological changes simulated by 9 global and 9 regional hydrological models (HM) for 11 large river basins in all continents under reference and scenario conditions. The foci are on model validation runs, sensitivity of annual discharge to climate variability in the reference period, and sensitivity of the long-term average monthly seasonal dynamics to climate change. One major result is that the global models, mostly not calibrated against observations, often show a considerable bias in mean monthly discharge, whereas regional models show a better reproduction of reference conditions. However, the sensitivity of the two HM ensembles to climate variability is in general similar. The simulated climate change impacts in terms of long-term average monthly dynamics evaluated for HM ensemble medians and spreads show that the medians are to a certain extent comparable in some cases, but have distinct differences in other cases, and the spreads related to global models are mostly notably larger. Summarizing, this implies that global HMs are useful tools when looking at large-scale impacts of climate change and variability. Whenever impacts for a specific river basin or region are of interest, e.g. for complex water management applications, the regional-scale models calibrated and validated against observed discharge should be used.
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Spatial relationship between climatic diversity and biodiversity conservation value.
Wang, Junjun; Wu, Ruidong; He, Daming; Yang, Feiling; Hu, Peijun; Lin, Shiwei; Wu, Wei; Diao, Yixin; Guo, Yang
2018-06-04
Capturing the full range of climatic diversity in a reserve network is expected to improve the resilience of biodiversity to climate change. Therefore, a study on systematic conservation planning for climatic diversity that explicitly or implicitly hypothesizes that regions with higher climatic diversity will support greater biodiversity is needed. However, little is known about the extent and generality of this hypothesis. This study utilized the case of Yunnan, southwest China, to quantitatively classify climatic units and modeled 4 climatic diversity indicators, including the variety of climatic units (VCU), rarity of climatic units (RCU), endemism of climatic units (ECU) and a composite index of climatic units (CICD). We used 5 reliable priority conservation area (PCA) schemes to represent the areas with high biodiversity conservation value. We then investigated the spatial relationships between the 4 climatic diversity indicators and the 5 PCA schemes and assessed the representation of climatic diversity within the existing nature reserves. The CICD exhibited the best performance for indicating high conservation value areas, followed by the ECU and RCU. However, contrary to conventional knowledge, VCU did not show a positive association with biodiversity conservation value. The rarer or more endemic climatic units tended to have higher reserve coverage than the more common units. However, only 28 units covering 10.5% of the land in Yunnan had more than 17% of their areas protected. In addition to climatic factors, topography and human disturbances also significantly affected the relationship between climatic diversity and biodiversity conservation value. This analysis suggests that climatic diversity can be an effective surrogate for establishing a more robust reserve network under climate change in Yunnan. Our study improves the understanding of the relationship between climatic diversity and biodiversity and helps build an evidence-based foundation for systematic conservation planning that targets climatic diversity in response to climate change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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Decision-Scaling: A Decision Framework for DoD Climate Risk Assessment and Adaptation Planning
2016-08-01
Therefore, the “probabilities” estimated in the case study cannot be interpreted in the traditional sense of probability distributions based on ...Force Academy. In each case study , the entire methodology is presented, although most of the emphasis for this report is placed on framing the energy...conservative side compared with weather data that has been adjusted for rising temperature. Based on the case studies examined so far, however, it is
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Climate-change impacts on sandy-beach biota: crossing a line in the sand.
Schoeman, David S; Schlacher, Thomas A; Defeo, Omar
2014-08-01
Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under-represented in the literature on climate-change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate-change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate-change impacts on sandy-shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate-change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate-change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate-change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.
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de Almeida, Paulo Silva; Sciamarelli, Alan; Batista, Paulo Mira; Ferreira, Ademar Dimas; Nascimento, João; Raizer, Josué; Andrade, José Dilermando; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo
2013-01-01
To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis . ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies. PMID:24402151
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Almeida, Paulo Silva de; Sciamarelli, Alan; Batista, Paulo Mira; Ferreira, Ademar Dimas; Nascimento, João; Raizer, Josué; Andrade Filho, José Dilermando; Gurgel-Gonçalves, Rodrigo
2013-12-01
To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis. ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.
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Smith, Jason; Tahani, Lloyd; Bobogare, Albino; Bugoro, Hugo; Otto, Francis; Fafale, George; Hiriasa, David; Kazazic, Adna; Beard, Grant; Amjadali, Amanda; Jeanne, Isabelle
2017-11-21
Malaria control remains a significant challenge in the Solomon Islands. Despite progress made by local malaria control agencies over the past decade, case rates remain high in some areas of the country. Studies from around the world have confirmed important links between climate and malaria transmission. This study focuses on understanding the links between malaria and climate in Guadalcanal, Solomon Islands, with a view towards developing a climate-based monitoring and early warning for periods of enhanced malaria transmission. Climate records were sourced from the Solomon Islands meteorological service (SIMS) and historical malaria case records were sourced from the National Vector-Borne Disease Control Programme (NVBDCP). A declining trend in malaria cases over the last decade associated with improved malaria control was adjusted for. A stepwise regression was performed between climate variables and climate-associated malaria transmission (CMT) at different lag intervals to determine where significant relationships existed. The suitability of these results for use in a three-tiered categorical warning system was then assessed using a Mann-Whitney U test. Of the climate variables considered, only rainfall had a consistently significant relationship with malaria in North Guadalcanal. Optimal lag intervals were determined for prediction using R 2 skill scores. A highly significant negative correlation (R = - 0.86, R 2 = 0.74, p < 0.05, n = 14) was found between October and December rainfall at Honiara and CMT in northern Guadalcanal for the subsequent January-June. This indicates that drier October-December periods are followed by higher malaria transmission periods in January-June. Cross-validation emphasized the suitability of this relationship for forecasting purposes [Formula: see text] as did Mann-Whitney U test results showing that rainfall below or above specific thresholds was significantly associated with above or below normal malaria transmission, respectively. This study demonstrated that rainfall provides the best predictor of malaria transmission in North Guadalcanal. This relationship is thought to be underpinned by the unique hydrological conditions in northern Guadalcanal which allow sandbars to form across the mouths of estuaries which act to develop or increase stagnant brackish marshes in low rainfall periods. These are ideal habitats for the main mosquito vector, Anopheles farauti. High rainfall accumulations result in the flushing of these habitats, reducing their viability. The results of this study are now being used as the basis of a malaria early warning system which has been jointly implemented by the SIMS, NVBDCP and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology.
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Social vulnerability and climate variability in southern Brazil: a TerraPop case study
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Adamo, S. B.; Fitch, C. A.; Kugler, T.; Doxsey-Whitfield, E.
2014-12-01
Climate variability is an inherent characteristic of the Earth's climate, including but not limited to climate change. It affects and impacts human society in different ways, depending on the underlying socioeconomic vulnerability of specific places, social groups, households and individuals. This differential vulnerability presents spatial and temporal variations, and is rooted in historical patterns of development and relations between human and ecological systems. This study aims to assess the impact of climate variability on livelihoods and well-being, as well as their changes over time and across space, and for rural and urban populations. The geographic focus is Southern Brazil-the states of Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul-- and the objectives include (a) to identify and map critical areas or hotspots of exposure to climate variability (temperature and precipitation), and (b) to identify internal variation or differential vulnerability within these areas and its evolution over time (1980-2010), using newly available integrated data from the Terra Populus project. These data include geo-referenced climate and agricultural data, and data describing demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of individuals, households and places.
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Drought or humidity oscillations? The case of coastal zone of Lebanon
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shaban, Amin; Houhou, Rola
2015-10-01
There is discrepancy in classifying Lebanon according to the different climatic zones; however, it is often described as a semi-arid region. Lately, Lebanon has been witnessing climatic oscillations in the meteorological parameters. The impact of these oscillations on water sector has been reflected also on energy-food nexus. Yet, there are a number of studies obtained to identify the climate of Lebanon, and they show contradictory results; especially these studies elaborated different datasets and applied diverse methods which often modeled only on large-scale regions. Therefore, the analysis of climatic data depended on complete and long-term climatic records that can be applied to assess the existing climatic status of Lebanon, as well as to assure whether Lebanon is under drought, humidity or it is oscillating between both. This study utilized considerable datasets, from different sources including the remotely sensed systems (e.g. TRMM). These datasets were interpolated and analyzed statistically according to De Martonne Aridity Index. Aiming to affirm the climatic attribute of Lebanon; however, ten climatic stations were investigated. They are with representative geographic setting and diverse time series in the coastal zone of Lebanon were investigated. Even though, Lebanon is known as a semi-arid region, yet results in this study show that the studied zone does not evidence any drought, since around 70% of the investigated years are characterized by semi-humid to humid climate. This climatic figure is well pronounced since rainfall rate exceeds 900 mm, average temperature rate is about 19 °C, and snow remains for a couple of months annually.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.
1998-03-01
There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abid, M.; Scheffran, J.; Schneider, U. A.; Ashfaq, M.
2014-10-01
Climate change is a global environmental threat to all economic sectors, particularly the agricultural sector. Pakistan is one of the negatively affected countries from climate change due to its high exposure to extreme events and low adaptive capacity. In Pakistan, farmers are the primary stakeholders in agriculture and are more at risk due to climate vulnerability. Based on farm household data of 450 households collected from three districts in three agro-ecological zones in Punjab province of Pakistan, this study examined how farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt their farming in response to perceived changes in climate. The results demonstrate that awareness to climate change persists in the area, and farm households make adjustments to adapt their agriculture in response to climatic change. Overall 58% of the farm households adapted their farming to climate change. Changing crop varieties, changing planting dates, plantation of trees and changing fertilizer were the main adaptation methods implemented by farm households in the study area. Results from the binary logistic model revealed that education, farm experience, household size, land area, tenancy status, ownership of tube-well, access to market information, information on weather forecasting and extension all influence the farmers' choice of adaptation measures. Results also indicate that adaptation to climate change is constrained by several factors such as lack of information; lack of money; resource constraint and shortage of irrigation water in the study area. Findings of the study suggest the need of greater investment in farmer education and improved institutional setup for climate change adaptation to improve farmers' wellbeing.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Preston, Benjamin L
2012-01-01
Technical assessments of vulnerability and/or risk are increasingly being undertaken to assess the impacts of climate change. Underlying this is the belief that they will bring clarity to questions regarding the scale of institutional investments required, plausible adaptation policies and measures, and the timing of their implementation. Despite the perceived importance of technical assessments in 'evidence-based' decision environments, assessments cannot be undertaken independent of values and politics, nor are they capable of eliminating the uncertainty that clouds decision-making on climate adaptation As such, assessments can trigger as many questions as they answer, leaving practitioners and stakeholders to question their value.more » This paper explores the value of vulnerability/risk assessments in climate change adaptation planning processes as a catalyst for learning in four case studies in Southeastern Australia. Data were collected using qualitative interviews with stakeholders involved in the assessments and analysed using a social learning framework. This analysis revealed that detailed and tangible strategies or actions often do not emerge directly from technical assessments. However, it also revealed that the assessments became important platforms for social learning. In providing these platforms, assessments present opportunities to question initial assumptions, explore multiple framings of an issue, generate new information, and galvanise support for collective actions. This study highlights the need for more explicit recognition and understanding of the important role social learning plays in climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning more broadly.« less
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Assessment of six dissimilarity metrics for climate analogues
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grenier, Patrick; Parent, Annie-Claude; Huard, David; Anctil, François; Chaumont, Diane
2013-04-01
Spatial analogue techniques consist in identifying locations whose recent-past climate is similar in some aspects to the future climate anticipated at a reference location. When identifying analogues, one key step is the quantification of the dissimilarity between two climates separated in time and space, which involves the choice of a metric. In this communication, spatial analogues and their usefulness are briefly discussed. Next, six metrics are presented (the standardized Euclidean distance, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic, the nearest-neighbor distance, the Zech-Aslan energy statistic, the Friedman-Rafsky runs statistic and the Kullback-Leibler divergence), along with a set of criteria used for their assessment. The related case study involves the use of numerical simulations performed with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM-v4.2.3), from which three annual indicators (total precipitation, heating degree-days and cooling degree-days) are calculated over 30-year periods (1971-2000 and 2041-2070). Results indicate that the six metrics identify comparable analogue regions at a relatively large scale, but best analogues may differ substantially. For best analogues, it is also shown that the uncertainty stemming from the metric choice does generally not exceed that stemming from the simulation or model choice. A synthesis of the advantages and drawbacks of each metric is finally presented, in which the Zech-Aslan energy statistic stands out as the most recommended metric for analogue studies, whereas the Friedman-Rafsky runs statistic is the least recommended, based on this case study.
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Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A
2012-12-01
Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced information about the potential variations of the water balance components (e.g. river discharge, groundwater level and volume) due to climate change. Such projections were used to develop potential hazard scenarios for the case study area, to be further applied within climate change risk assessment studies for groundwater resources and associated ecosystems. This paper describes the models' chain and the methodological approach adopted in the TRUST project and analyzes the hazard scenarios produced in order to investigate climate change risks for the case study area. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Li, Jingwan; Sharma, Ashish; Evans, Jason; Johnson, Fiona
2018-01-01
Addressing systematic biases in regional climate model simulations of extreme rainfall is a necessary first step before assessing changes in future rainfall extremes. Commonly used bias correction methods are designed to match statistics of the overall simulated rainfall with observations. This assumes that change in the mix of different types of extreme rainfall events (i.e. convective and non-convective) in a warmer climate is of little relevance in the estimation of overall change, an assumption that is not supported by empirical or physical evidence. This study proposes an alternative approach to account for the potential change of alternate rainfall types, characterized here by synoptic weather patterns (SPs) using self-organizing maps classification. The objective of this study is to evaluate the added influence of SPs on the bias correction, which is achieved by comparing the corrected distribution of future extreme rainfall with that using conventional quantile mapping. A comprehensive synthetic experiment is first defined to investigate the conditions under which the additional information of SPs makes a significant difference to the bias correction. Using over 600,000 synthetic cases, statistically significant differences are found to be present in 46% cases. This is followed by a case study over the Sydney region using a high-resolution run of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, which indicates a small change in the proportions of the SPs and a statistically significant change in the extreme rainfall over the region, although the differences between the changes obtained from the two bias correction methods are not statistically significant.
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Luís, Sílvia; Lima, Maria Luísa; Roseta-Palma, Catarina; Rodrigues, Nuno; P Sousa, Lisa; Freitas, Fabiana; L Alves, Fátima; Lillebø, Ana I; Parrod, Camille; Jolivet, Vincent; Paramana, Theodora; Alexandrakis, George; Poulos, Serafim
2018-06-18
Stakeholder engagement in the processes of planning local adaptation to climate change faces many challenges. The goal of this work was to explore whether or not the intention of engaging could be understood (Study 1) and promoted (Study 2), by using an extension of the theory of planned behaviour. In Study 1, stakeholders from three European Mediterranean case studies were surveyed: Baixo Vouga Lagunar (Portugal), SCOT Provence Méditerranée (France), and the island of Crete (Greece) (N = 115). Stakeholders' intention of engaging was significantly predicted by subjective norm (which was predicted by injunctive normative beliefs towards policy-makers and stakeholders) and by perceived behavioural control (which was predicted by knowledge of policy and instruments). Study 2 was conducted in the Baixo Vouga Lagunar case study and consisted of a two-workshop intervention where issues on local and regional adaptation, policies, and engagement were presented and discussed. A within-participants comparison of initial survey results with results following the workshops (N T1 = 12, N T2 = 15, N T3 = 12) indicated that these were successful in increasing stakeholders' intention of engaging. This increase was paired with a) an increase in injunctive normative beliefs towards policy-makers and consequently in subjective norm, and to b) a decrease in perceived complexity of planning local adaptation and an increase in knowledge regarding adaptation to climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Airborne black carbon from urban traffic is a climate forcing agent and has been associated with health risk to near-road populations. In this paper, we describe a case study of black carbon concentration and compositional variability at and near a traffic-laden multi-lane highw...
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Goodman-Scott, Emily; Hays, Danica G.; Cholewa, Blaire E.
2018-01-01
Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports (PBIS) is a widely implemented, culturally responsive framework using prevention and intervention activities to promote a safe school climate and positive academic and behavioral student outcomes. Using a qualitative single-case study design, authors provide a rich description of PBIS implementation…
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Response of the North American corn belt to climate warming, CO2
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
1983-08-01
The climate of the North American corn belt was characterized to estimate the effects of climatic change on that agricultural region. Heat and moisture characteristics of the current corn belt were identified and mapped based on a simulated climate for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. The result was a map of the projected corn belt corresponding to the simulated climatic change. Such projections were made with and without an allowance for earlier planting dates that could occur under a CO2-induced climatic warming. Because the direct effects of CO2 increases on plants, improvements in farm technology, and plant breeding are not considered, the resulting projections represent an extreme or worst case. The results indicate that even for such a worst case, climatic conditions favoring corn production would not extend very far into Canada. Climatic buffering effects of the Great Lakes would apparently retard northeastward shifts in corn-belt location.
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Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta
2016-02-01
As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.
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The health impacts of climate-related migration.
Schwerdtle, Patricia; Bowen, Kathryn; McMichael, Celia
2017-12-11
Changes in climate, in conjunction with other drivers of mobility, shape human migration. While there is an increasing focus on the adaptive potential of migration, the health impacts of climate-related migration, including planned relocation and forced displacement, have not been thoroughly examined. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change stated that migration is currently, and will increasingly be, influenced by environmental degradation and climate change, and that it needs to be addressed in a focused and coordinated manner. This paper examines the links between climate change, migration, and health, considering diverse migration responses, including immobility, forced displacement and planned migration, as well as the associated health risks and opportunities in different contexts. Using case studies, the paper illustrates strategies to reduce the health risks associated with climate change-related migration. While there is an increasing body of research examining the climate change-migration nexus, a dual approach is now required. This approach must include debate and further research regarding the health consequences and responses associated with climate migration as well as immediate strengthening of health systems to make them both climate resilient and migrant inclusive.
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Climate change and species interactions: ways forward.
Angert, Amy L; LaDeau, Shannon L; Ostfeld, Richard S
2013-09-01
With ongoing and rapid climate change, ecologists are being challenged to predict how individual species will change in abundance and distribution, how biotic communities will change in structure and function, and the consequences of these climate-induced changes for ecosystem functioning. It is now well documented that indirect effects of climate change on species abundances and distributions, via climatic effects on interspecific interactions, can outweigh and even reverse the direct effects of climate. However, a clear framework for incorporating species interactions into projections of biological change remains elusive. To move forward, we suggest three priorities for the research community: (1) utilize tractable study systems as case studies to illustrate possible outcomes, test processes highlighted by theory, and feed back into modeling efforts; (2) develop a robust analytical framework that allows for better cross-scale linkages; and (3) determine over what time scales and for which systems prediction of biological responses to climate change is a useful and feasible goal. We end with a list of research questions that can guide future research to help understand, and hopefully mitigate, the negative effects of climate change on biota and the ecosystem services they provide. © 2013 New York Academy of Sciences.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Sicard, Pierre, E-mail: pierre.sicard@acri-st.fr; Dalstein-Richier, Laurence
The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate changemore » context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O{sub 3}) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O{sub 3} injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46–1.08 °C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95–4.59 °C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O{sub 3} precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O{sub 3} uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O{sub 3} uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O{sub 3} on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O{sub 3} pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. - Highlights: • We assess climate change impacts on forests: South-eastern France as case study in the last 20 years. • We detect and estimate trends for O{sub 3} concentrations, climatic parameters and visible injury. • We establish a state-of-the-art of the health of 2 common pine species in a context of climate change. • We use two valuable bio-indicator species for O{sub 3} stress: Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra. • Deterioration of crown conditions: climate change creates additional challenges for forest.« less
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Water Resources Management and Hydrologic Design Under Uncertain Climate Change Scenarios
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Teegavarapu, R. S.
2008-05-01
The impact of climate change on hydrologic design and management of water resource systems could be one of the important challenges faced by future practicing hydrologists and water resources managers. Many water resources managers currently rely on the historical hydrological data and adaptive real-time operations without consideration of the impact of climate change on major inputs influencing the behavior of hydrologic systems and the operating rules. Issues such as risk, reliability and robustness of water resources systems under different climate change scenarios were addressed in the past. However, water resources management with the decision maker's preferences attached to climate change has never been dealt with. This presentation discusses issues related to impacts of climate change on water resources management and application of a soft-computing approach, fuzzy set theory, for climate-sensitive management of water resources systems. A real-life case study example is presented to illustrate the applicability of soft-computing approach for handling the decision maker's preferences in accepting or rejecting the magnitude and direction of climate change.
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Climate and Non-Climate Drivers of Dengue Epidemics in Southern Coastal Ecuador
Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M.; Lowe, Rachel
2013-01-01
We report a statistical mixed model for assessing the importance of climate and non-climate drivers of interannual variability in dengue fever in southern coastal Ecuador. Local climate data and Pacific sea surface temperatures (Oceanic Niño Index [ONI]) were used to predict dengue standardized morbidity ratios (SMRs; 1995–2010). Unobserved confounding factors were accounted for using non-structured yearly random effects. We found that ONI, rainfall, and minimum temperature were positively associated with dengue, with more cases of dengue during El Niño events. We assessed the influence of non-climatic factors on dengue SMR using a subset of data (2001–2010) and found that the percent of households with Aedes aegypti immatures was also a significant predictor. Our results indicate that monitoring the climate and non-climate drivers identified in this study could provide some predictive lead for forecasting dengue epidemics, showing the potential to develop a dengue early-warning system in this region. PMID:23478584
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Feldman, Lauren; Hart, P Sol
2018-03-01
Using a national sample, this study experimentally tests the effects of news visuals and texts that emphasize either the causes and impacts of climate change or actions that can be taken to address climate change. We test the effects of variations in text and imagery on discrete emotions (i.e., hope, fear, and anger) and, indirectly, on support for climate mitigation policies. Political ideology is examined as a moderator. The findings indicate that news images and texts that focus on climate-oriented actions can increase hope and, in the case of texts, decrease fear and anger, and these effects generally hold across the ideological spectrum. In turn, the influence of emotions on policy support depends on ideology: Hope and fear increase support for climate policies for all ideological groups but particularly conservatives, whereas anger polarizes the opinions of liberals and conservatives. Implications for climate change communication that appeals to emotions are discussed. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.
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Constructing Perceptions of Climate Change: a case study of regional political decision makers
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bray, D.
2012-12-01
This case study of climate change communications assesses the salient means of communication and the message adopted by regional political decision makers on the German Baltic coast. Realizing that cultural factors and local values (and not simply knowledge) are significant influences in explaining attitudes towards climate change, this analysis draws from the records of regional weather, from scientists with a specific focus on the region, from the political decision makers for that region, and the media message reaching the decision makers, ensuring all elements of the analysis are drawn from the same socioeconomic, geophysical, political and cultural context. This is important as the social dynamics surrounding the trust in science is of critical importance and, as such, all elements of the case study are specifically contained within a common context. If the utility of climate change knowledge is to prompt well conceived adaptation/mitigation strategies then the political decision process, or at least the perceptions shaping it, can best be understood by locating it within the world view of the decision makers involved in the production process. Using the results of two survey questionnaires, one of regional climate scientists and one of regional political decision makers, ten years of local weather records, and a summary of the message from mass media circulation, the discord in perceptions of regional climate change are quantitatively explored. The conclusions drawn from the analysis include, compared to the scientific assessment: The decision makers' perceptions of recent past differ from actual observations. The decision makers' perceptions of the future differ from scientific assessments. The decision makers tend to over estimate the magnitude of regional climate change and its impacts. The decision makers tend to over estimate the sense of immediacy for adaptation measures. The conclusions drawn suggest that in the regional political realm, it is often a social construction of climate change, not scientific claims, that are shaping decisions. While certainty is the common demand of those charged with making decisions concerning climate change, certainty is the quality that seems to be given least value in taking action. Weather records are all but ignored. The direct voice of scientists was heeded but not fully accepted. In the transition, the truth-to-power model appears to be somewhat modified, whereby power states that the future will be different, but the difference is determined by other sources; shaping images of risk and danger. One could not deny that climate and sea level have always been forces shaping patterns of human settlement. And one could not deny that perhaps the time is nigh to reassess the human relationship with nature. However, any measure considered should be done so with a rational sense of objectivity. To do otherwise, there is the risk of misallocating scare resources.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Sellami, Haykel; Cirelli, Claudia
2014-05-01
The latest reports of the intergovernmental panel on climate change explained that the Mediterranean regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. These latest are expected to have strong impacts on the management of water resources and on regional economies. The aim of this paper is to discuss impacts of climate changes on the Thau case study in relation to the evolution of water balance, water uses and adaptation to climate change. The Thau coastal lagoon is located in the Mediterranean coast in south of France in the Languedoc-Roussillon Region. Economic activities are diverse from shellfish farming, fertilizers industries to agriculture and tourism. However, tourism and shellfish farming are of major importance for local economy. If tourism is mainly turned to the Sea coast, shellfishes grow within the lagoon and rely on water quality. Previous studies have demonstrated the link between the coastal lagoon water quality and inputs of freshwater from the catchment. Thus, changes in rainfalls, runoff and water balance would not only affect water uses but also water quality. Climate changes projections are presented following the implementation of 4 downscaled climatic models. Impacts on water balance are modelled with SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) for 2041-2070 compared to the 1971-2000 reference period. The decrease of precipitations and water balance will impact discharges and thus decrease the freshwater inputs to the coastal lagoon. A study of water uses conducted in interactions with stakeholders within the Thau area has permitted to assess both current and evolution of water uses. It has revealed local water resources are depleting while water demand is increasing and is planned to continue to increase in the really near future. To prevent water scarcity events, mainly due to the climate change context, the Regional authorities have connected the catchment to the Rhône river to import water. The conclusion of this study is while expected impacts of climate changes on the Thau system were expected to be linked to water balance depletion in the catchment, the main threats are now linked to the impact on water quality of the introduction of the Rhône river waters within the system. This study is conducted in the CLIMB EU-FP7 project (2010-2014).
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The Effectiveness of Taiwan Building Energy Regulation under the influence of Future Climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Weng, Yu-Teng; Huang, Kuo-Tsang
2017-04-01
Building energy consumption comprises circa 40% of the national annual energy usage in Taiwan, and the majority proportion is attributed to the cooling apparatus usage. As cooling energy is closely related to the outdoor climate, it is expected that the future global climate change would amplify its demand. Considering the building energy regulation criteria are the minimum requirements that the building has to be complied with, this study tried to investigate whether the current building energy regulation in Taiwan, initiated in 2013, would still be capable of maintaining the energy use in the future as today's level. The research adopted EnergyPlus to simulate the annual cooling energy use of several virtual office building cases with the constructed hourly future weather data under future climate change scenarios of RCP45 and RCP85 defined by IPCC. The virtual building cases are generated by a structured orthogonal array with each case is constituted by 10 building design parameters. The results revealed that the building energy consumption based on the current regulation criteria failed to maintain at the same level in the future as oppose to nowadays. By comparing to the current cooling energy usage, it would rise by 13% and 22% in RCP45 and RCP85, respectively, at the end of this century. This research further parametrically studied the potential cooling energy mitigation strategies and proposed effective building envelope design schemes in order to neutralize the future building energy increase.
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Shashar, Sagi; Yitshak-Sade, Maayan; Sonkin, Roman; Novack, Victor; Jaffe, Eli
2018-06-01
Published annual estimates report a global burden of 2.5 million snakebite cases and >100,000 deaths. In Israel, envenomations are the third most frequent cause of poisonings that are of moderate to major clinical severity. Most studies focus on the clinical descriptions of snakebites in tropical climates, and we sought to investigate the association between snakebite frequency and meteorological parameters. We sought to investigate the seasonality of snakebites and evaluate the association between increasingly common heat waves and other meteorological parameters and snakebite frequency in a semiarid nontropical climate. We obtained data for all medical evacuations (2008-2015) because of snakebites in Israel. Climate data included daily 24-hour average temperature (°C) and relative humidity (%). We used a time-stratified case crossover method, in which a conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate the association, and we also stratified our analysis by season and by region. We identified 1234 snakebite cases over 8 years, of which most (74.2%) occurred in hot seasons and between 6 pm and 9 pm. The risk of snakebite was positively associated with temperature >23°C (odds ratio [OR] 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.53) and inversely with humidity >40% (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.57-0.97). We also found an association with heat waves both in cold (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.01-2.60) and hot seasons (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.18-1.92). In a semiarid nontropical climate, we observed an association between an increase in the number of snakebite cases and higher temperatures and lower humidity. Moreover, heat waves increased the frequency of snakebites in both cold and hot seasons. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C
2017-11-30
Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Stilianakis, Nikolaos I; Syrris, Vasileios; Petroliagkis, Thomas; Pärt, Peeter; Gewehr, Sandra; Kalaitzopoulou, Stella; Mourelatos, Spiros; Baka, Agoritsa; Pervanidou, Danai; Vontas, John; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos
2016-01-01
Climate can affect the geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne disease incidence such as West Nile Virus (WNV) infections. We explore the association between climatic factors and the occurrence of West Nile fever (WNF) or West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans in Northern Greece over the years 2010-2014. Time series over a period of 30 years (1979-2008) of climatic data of air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature, volumetric soil water content, wind speed, and precipitation representing average climate were obtained utilising the ECMWF's (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) system allowing for a homogeneous set of data in time and space. We analysed data of reported human cases of WNF/WNND and Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Quantitative assessment resulted in identifying associations between the above climatic variables and reported human cases of WNF/WNND. A substantial fraction of the cases was linked to the upper percentiles of the distribution of air and soil temperature for the period 1979-2008 and the lower percentiles of relative humidity and soil water content. A statistically relevant relationship between the mean weekly value climatic anomalies of wind speed (negative association), relative humidity (negative association) and air temperature (positive association) over 30 years, and reported human cases of WNF/WNND during the period 2010-2014 could be shown. A negative association between the presence of WNV infected Culex mosquitoes and wind speed could be identified. The statistically significant associations could also be confirmed for the week the WNF/WNND human cases appear and when a time lag of up to three weeks was considered. Similar statistically significant associations were identified with the weekly anomalies of the maximum and minimum values of the above climatic factors. Utilising the ERA-Interim re-analysis methodology it could be shown that besides air temperature, climatic factors such as soil temperature, relative humidity, soil water content and wind speed may affect the epidemiology of WNV.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Leung, Lai R.; Qian, Yun
2009-02-12
Twenty years of regional climate simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model for North America has been analyzed to study the influence of the atmospheric rivers and the role of the land surface on heavy precipitation and flooding in the western U.S. Compared to observations, the simulation realistically captured the 95th percentile extreme precipitation, mean precipitation intensity, as well as the mean precipitation and temperature anomalies of all the atmospheric river events between 1980-1999. Contrasting the 1986 President Day and 1997 New Year Day atmospheric river events, differences in atmospheric stability are found to have an influence on themore » spatial distribution of precipitation in the Coastal Range of northern California. Although both cases yield similar amounts of heavy precipitation, the 1997 case was found to produce more runoff compared to the 1986 case. Antecedent soil moisture, the ratio of snowfall to total precipitation (which depends on temperature), and existing snowpack all seem to play a role, leading to a higher runoff to precipitation ratio simulated for the 1997 case. This study underscores the importance of characterizing or simulating atmospheric rivers and the land surface conditions for predicting floods, and for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on heavy precipitation and flooding in the western U.S.« less
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Work climate in Mexican hemodialysis units: a cross-sectional study.
Rojas Russell, M; Tirado Gómez, L L; Pacheco Domínguez, R L; Escamilla Santiago, R; López Cervantes, M
2011-01-01
The work climate (WC) affects the performance of service providers and has an impact on the care provided to users. This is important in the case of conditions that affect the quality of life, as is the case of chronic kidney disease (CKD) treated with haemodialysis. In Mexico, the demand for the care of CKD cases is increasing and the haemodialysis offer is limited. The purpose of this study was to describe and compare the WC in public, private and social security haemodialysis units in Mexico and to validate a tool to measure WC in haemodialysis units (HU). 372 professionals from 84 HU in 27 states were interviewed using a questionnaire. This included questions about the WC, quality of care and structure and organisation of the HU. Variables were compared by type of institution and profession. Significant correlations were observed between the WC and indicators of the quality of care. Nine out of fourteen variables presented important differences by type of unit, with a better perception of WC in private units and a poorer perception in social security ones. The perception of WC relies on the organisation and planning of the institutions, as well as on their infrastructure. In the case of Social Security HU in Mexico, these appear to be the areas that require improvement in order to encourage a better work climate.
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Climate change and the emergence of vector-borne diseases in Europe: case study of dengue fever.
Bouzid, Maha; Colón-González, Felipe J; Lung, Tobias; Lake, Iain R; Hunter, Paul R
2014-08-22
Dengue fever is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease worldwide. Dengue transmission is critically dependent on climatic factors and there is much concern as to whether climate change would spread the disease to areas currently unaffected. The occurrence of autochthonous infections in Croatia and France in 2010 has raised concerns about a potential re-emergence of dengue in Europe. The objective of this study is to estimate dengue risk in Europe under climate change scenarios. We used a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) to estimate dengue fever risk as a function of climatic variables (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, humidity) and socioeconomic factors (population density, urbanisation, GDP per capita and population size), under contemporary conditions (1985-2007) in Mexico. We then used our model estimates to project dengue incidence under baseline conditions (1961-1990) and three climate change scenarios: short-term 2011-2040, medium-term 2041-2070 and long-term 2071-2100 across Europe. The model was used to calculate average number of yearly dengue cases at a spatial resolution of 10 × 10 km grid covering all land surface of the currently 27 EU member states. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to model dengue fever risk in Europe in terms of disease occurrence rather than mosquito presence. The results were presented using Geographical Information System (GIS) and allowed identification of areas at high risk. Dengue fever hot spots were clustered around the coastal areas of the Mediterranean and Adriatic seas and the Po Valley in northern Italy. This risk assessment study is likely to be a valuable tool assisting effective and targeted adaptation responses to reduce the likely increased burden of dengue fever in a warmer world.
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De Paola, Francesco; Giugni, Maurizio; Topa, Maria Elena; Bucchignani, Edoardo
2014-01-01
Changes in the hydrologic cycle due to increase in greenhouse gases cause variations in intensity, duration, and frequency of precipitation events. Quantifying the potential effects of climate change and adapting to them is one way to reduce urban vulnerability. Since rainfall characteristics are often used to design water structures, reviewing and updating rainfall characteristics (i.e., Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves) for future climate scenarios is necessary (Reg Environ Change 13(1 Supplement):25-33, 2013). The present study regards the evaluation of the IDF curves for three case studies: Addis Ababa (Ethiopia), Dar Es Salaam (Tanzania) and Douala (Cameroon). Starting from daily rainfall observed data, to define the IDF curves and the extreme values in a smaller time window (10', 30', 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 12 h), disaggregation techniques of the collected data have been used, in order to generate a synthetic sequence of rainfall, with statistical properties similar to the recorded data. Then, the rainfall pattern of the three test cities was analyzed and IDF curves were evaluated. In order to estimate the contingent influence of climate change on the IDF curves, the described procedure was applied to the climate (rainfall) simulations over the time period 2010-2050, provided by CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici). The evaluation of the IDF curves allowed to frame the rainfall evolution of the three case studies, considering initially only historical data, then taking into account the climate projections, in order to verify the changes in rainfall patterns. The same set of data and projections was also used for evaluating the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Dale, Amy; Fant, Charles; Strzepek, Kenneth; Lickley, Megan; Solomon, Susan
2017-03-01
We present maize production in sub-Saharan Africa as a case study in the exploration of how uncertainties in global climate change, as reflected in projections from a range of climate model ensembles, influence climate impact assessments for agriculture. The crop model AquaCrop-OS (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) was modified to run on a 2° × 2° grid and coupled to 122 climate model projections from multi-model ensembles for three emission scenarios (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 [CMIP3] SRES A1B and CMIP5 Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] scenarios 4.5 and 8.5) as well as two "within-model" ensembles (NCAR CCSM3 and ECHAM5/MPI-OM) designed to capture internal variability (i.e., uncertainty due to chaos in the climate system). In spite of high uncertainty, most notably in the high-producing semi-arid zones, we observed robust regional and sub-regional trends across all ensembles. In agreement with previous work, we project widespread yield losses in the Sahel region and Southern Africa, resilience in Central Africa, and sub-regional increases in East Africa and at the southern tip of the continent. Spatial patterns of yield losses corresponded with spatial patterns of aridity increases, which were explicitly evaluated. Internal variability was a major source of uncertainty in both within-model and between-model ensembles and explained the majority of the spatial distribution of uncertainty in yield projections. Projected climate change impacts on maize production in different regions and nations ranged from near-zero or positive (upper quartile estimates) to substantially negative (lower quartile estimates), highlighting a need for risk management strategies that are adaptive and robust to uncertainty.
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Risk-based water resources planning: Incorporating probabilistic nonstationary climate uncertainties
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Borgomeo, Edoardo; Hall, Jim W.; Fung, Fai; Watts, Glenn; Colquhoun, Keith; Lambert, Chris
2014-08-01
We present a risk-based approach for incorporating nonstationary probabilistic climate projections into long-term water resources planning. The proposed methodology uses nonstationary synthetic time series of future climates obtained via a stochastic weather generator based on the UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) to construct a probability distribution of the frequency of water shortages in the future. The UKCP09 projections extend well beyond the range of current hydrological variability, providing the basis for testing the robustness of water resources management plans to future climate-related uncertainties. The nonstationary nature of the projections combined with the stochastic simulation approach allows for extensive sampling of climatic variability conditioned on climate model outputs. The probability of exceeding planned frequencies of water shortages of varying severity (defined as Levels of Service for the water supply utility company) is used as a risk metric for water resources planning. Different sources of uncertainty, including demand-side uncertainties, are considered simultaneously and their impact on the risk metric is evaluated. Supply-side and demand-side management strategies can be compared based on how cost-effective they are at reducing risks to acceptable levels. A case study based on a water supply system in London (UK) is presented to illustrate the methodology. Results indicate an increase in the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service across the planning horizon. Under a 1% per annum population growth scenario, the probability of exceeding the planned Levels of Service is as high as 0.5 by 2040. The case study also illustrates how a combination of supply and demand management options may be required to reduce the risk of water shortages.
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Dhimal, Meghnath; Ahrens, Bodo; Kuch, Ulrich
2015-01-01
Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change. A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December 2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies. Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Field, C. B.
2012-12-01
Modeling climate change impacts is challenging for a variety of reasons. Some of these are related to causation. A weather or climate event is rarely the sole cause of an impact, and, for many impacts, social, economic, cultural, or ecological factors may play a larger role than climate. Other challenges are related to outcomes. Consequences of an event are often most severe when several kinds of responses interact, typically in unexpected ways. Many kinds of consequences are difficult to quantify, especially when they include a mix of market, cultural, personal, and ecological values. In addition, scale can be tremendously important. Modest impacts over large areas present very different challenges than severe but very local impacts. Finally, impacts may respond non-linearly to forcing, with behavior that changes qualitatively at one or more thresholds and with unexpected outcomes in extremes. Modeling these potentially complex interactions between drivers and impacts presents one set of challenges. Evaluating the models presents another. At least five kinds of approaches can contribute to the evaluation of impact models designed to provide insights in multi-driver, multi-responder, multi-scale, and extreme-driven contexts, even though none of these approaches is a complete or "silver-bullet" solution. The starting point for much of the evaluation in this space is case studies. Case studies can help illustrate links between processes and scales. They can highlight factors that amplify or suppress sensitivity to climate drivers, and they can suggest the consequences of intervening at different points. While case studies rarely provide concrete evidence about mechanisms, they can help move a mechanistic case from circumstantial to sound. Novel approaches to data collection, including crowd sourcing, can potentially provide tools and the number of relevant examples to develop case studies as statistically robust data sources. A critical condition for progress in this area is the ability to utilize data of uneven quality and standards. Novel approaches to meta-analysis provide other options for taking advantage of diverse case studies. Techniques for summarizing responses across impacts, drivers, and scales can play a huge role in increasing the value of information from case studies. In some cases, expert elicitation may provide alternatives for identifying mechanisms or for interpreting multi-factor drivers or responses. Especially when designed to focus on a well-defined set of observations, a sophisticated elicitation can establish formal confidence limits on responses that are otherwise difficult to constrain. A final possible approach involves a focus on the mechanisms contributing to an impact, rather than the impact itself. Approaches based on quantified mechanisms are especially appealing in the context of models where the number of interactions makes it difficult to intuitively understand the chain of connections from cause to effect, when actors differ in goals or sensitivities, or when scale affects parts of the system differently. With all of these approaches, useful evidence may not conform to traditional levels of statistical confidence. Some of the biggest challenges in taking advantage of the potential tools will involve defining what constitutes a meaningful evaluation.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ekstrom, J.; Klasic, M.; Fencl, A.; Lubell, M.; Bedsworth, L. W.; Baker, E.
2016-12-01
Extreme events impact water quality, which pose serious challenges for drinking water systems. Such extreme events, including wildfire, storm surge, and other weather-related extremes, are projected to increase under a changing climate. It remains unclear what climate change information can support water managers in preparing for more extreme events. Exploring this topic requires understanding the larger question: What is the role of scientific information in adapting to climate change? We present two parts of a three-year study geared to understand whether, where, why and in what way climate information (or the lack of) is used or needed to support long term water quality planning for extreme events. In 2015 we surveyed California drinking water utilities and found a wide range of extreme event/water quality issues, perspectives on the severity of climate change threats, drought impacts and trusted information sources relating to water quality concerns. Approximately 70% of 259 respondents had recently experienced extreme weather-related events that worsen or trigger water quality. Survey results informed development of a case study analysis to gain a more in-depth understanding of what type of - or when - extreme events information could support climate adaptation. Projections of extreme events are often not in a form that is useable for water quality planning. Relative to supply-related projections, water quality has received much less scientific attention, leaving it an assumed scientific information gap and need for management. The question remains whether filling this gap would help adaptation, whom it would help, and in what way. Based on interviews with water systems in Summer 2016, our case study analyses reinforce that extreme events threaten water quality in many ways; largely as secondary impacts of climate change. Secondary impacts involve disinfection byproducts, increasing salinity in the Delta, and the use of lower quality sources. The most common barriers impeding effective adaptation were not related to information. Instead, respondents frequently expressed the obstacles of external institutions not coordinating with their needs. This demonstrates why climate adaptation must simultaneously occur at multiple levels of governance in order for water systems to successfully advance.
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Tong, Michael Xiaoliang; Hansen, Alana; Hanson-Easey, Scott; Cameron, Scott; Xiang, Jianjun; Liu, Qiyong; Liu, Xiaobo; Sun, Yehuan; Weinstein, Philip; Han, Gil-Soo; Williams, Craig; Bi, Peng
2017-03-31
Though there was the significant decrease in the incidence of malaria in central and southwest China during the 1980s and 1990s, there has been a re-emergence of malaria since 2000. A cross-sectional survey was conducted amongst the staff of eleven Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in China to gauge their perceptions regarding the impacts of climate change on malaria transmission and its control and prevention. Descriptive analysis was performed to study CDC staff's knowledge, attitudes, perceptions and suggestions for malaria control in the face of climate change. A majority (79.8%) of CDC staff were concerned about climate change and 79.7% believed the weather was becoming warmer. Most participants (90.3%) indicated climate change had a negative effect on population health, 92.6 and 86.8% considered that increasing temperatures and precipitation would influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases including malaria. About half (50.9%) of the surveyed staff indicated malaria had re-emerged in recent years, and some outbreaks were occurring in new geographic areas. The main reasons for such re-emergence were perceived to be: mosquitoes in high-density, numerous imported cases, climate change, poor environmental conditions, internal migrant populations, and lack of health awareness. This study found most CDC staff endorsed the statement that climate change had a negative impact on infectious disease transmission. Malaria had re-emerged in some areas of China, and most of the staff believed that this can be managed. However, high densities of mosquitoes and the continuous increase in imported cases of malaria in local areas, together with environmental changes are bringing about critical challenges to malaria control in China. This study contributes to an understanding of climate change related perceptions of malaria control and prevention amongst CDC staff. It may help to formulate in-house training guidelines, community health promotion programmes and policies to improve the capacity of malaria control and prevention in the face of climate change in China.
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Kolstad, Erik W; Johansson, Kjell Arne
2011-03-01
Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8-11% (with SDs of 3-5%) by 2010-2039 and 22-29% (SDs of 9-12%) by 2070-2099. Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate-health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health.
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Chadsuthi, Sudarat; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Triampo, Wannapong; Modchang, Charin
2015-01-01
Influenza is a worldwide respiratory infectious disease that easily spreads from one person to another. Previous research has found that the influenza transmission process is often associated with climate variables. In this study, we used autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots to determine the appropriate autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for influenza transmission in the central and southern regions of Thailand. The relationships between reported influenza cases and the climate data, such as the amount of rainfall, average temperature, average maximum relative humidity, average minimum relative humidity, and average relative humidity, were evaluated using cross-correlation function. Based on the available data of suspected influenza cases and climate variables, the most appropriate ARIMA(X) model for each region was obtained. We found that the average temperature correlated with influenza cases in both central and southern regions, but average minimum relative humidity played an important role only in the southern region. The ARIMAX model that includes the average temperature with a 4-month lag and the minimum relative humidity with a 2-month lag is the appropriate model for the central region, whereas including the minimum relative humidity with a 4-month lag results in the best model for the southern region.
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Ben Hassine, Th; Calistri, P; Ippoliti, C; Conte, A; Danzetta, M L; Bruno, R; Lelli, R; Bejaoui, M; Hammami, S
2014-01-01
Eco-climatic conditions are often associated with the occurrence of West Nile Disease (WND) cases. Among the complex set of biotic and abiotic factors influencing the emergence and spread of this vector-borne disease, two main variables have been considered to have a great influence on the probability of West Nile Virus (WNV) introduction and circulation in Tunisia: the presence of susceptible bird populations and the existence of geographical areas where the environmental and climatic conditions are more favourable to mosquito multiplications. The aim of this study was to identify and classify the climatic and environmental variables possibly associated with the occurrence of WNVhuman cases in Tunisia. The following environmental and climatic variables have been considered: wetlands and humid areas, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), temperatures and elevation. A preliminary analysis for the characterization of main variables associated with areas with a history of WNV human cases in Tunisia between 1997 and 2011 has been made. This preliminary analysis clearly indicates the closeness to marshes ecosystem, where migratory bird populations are located, as an important risk factor for WNV infection. On the contrary the temperature absolute seems to be not a significant factor in Tunisian epidemiological situation. In relation to NDVI values, more complex considerations should be made.
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Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Bugmann, Harald; Elkin, Che; Hanewinkel, Marc; Meilby, Henrik; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark
2013-06-15
We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) forest in the Black Forest, Germany. We simulated forest development under a range of climate change scenarios and forest management alternatives. Our analysis used Bayesian updating and Dempster's rule of combination to simulate how observations of climate and forest variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation is superior for updating beliefs and supporting decision-making. However, with little conflict among information sources, the strongest evidence would be offered by a combination of at least two informative variables, e.g., temperature and precipitation. The success of adaptive forest management depends on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mercogliano, P.; Reder, A.; Rianna, G.
2017-12-01
Extreme weather events (EWEs) are projected to be more frequent and severe across the globe because of global warming. This poses challenging problems for critical infrastructures (CIs) which can be dramatically affected by EWEs needing adaptation countermeasures againts changing climate conditions. In this work, we present the main results achieved in the framework of the FP7-European project INTACT aimed at analyzing the resilience of CIs against shocks and stresses due to the climate changes. To identify variations in the hazard induced by climate change, appropriate Extreme Weather Indicators (EWIs) are defined for several case studies and different approaches are analyzed to obtain local climate projections. The different approaches, with increasing refinement depending on local information available and methodologies selected, are investigated considering raw versus bias corrected data and weighted or equiprobable ensemble mean projections given by the regional climate models within the Euro-CORDEX program. Specifically, this work focuses on two case studies selected from the five proposed within the INTACT project and for which local station data are available: • rainfall-induced landslide affecting Campania region (Southern Italy) with a special view on the Nocera municipality; • storms and heavy rainfall/winds in port of Rotterdam (Netherlands). In general, our results show a small sensitivity to the weighting approach and a large sensitivity to bias-correction in the future projections. For landslides in Campania region, the Euro-CORDEX simulations projected a generalized worsening of the safety conditions depending on the scenario (RCP4.5/8.5) and period (2011-2040/2041-2070/2071-2100) considered. For the port of Rotterdam, the Euro-CORDEX simulations projected an increment in the intense events of daily and weekly precipitation, also in this case depending on the scenario and period considered. Considering framework, methodologies and results, the activities developed within the INTACT project, also through an intense effort of knowledge co-production between researchers and stakeholders, posed a theoretical-based starting point for CI owners, operators and protection policy makers for the setup of protection systems against present and future climatic hazard features.
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Bibliography on Cold Regions Science and Technology Volume 53, Part 2
1999-12-01
A.T. Claud, C. 53-1504 Interaction of ice floes with ships on offshore structures Case study of antarctic mesolow [1995, eng] 53-329 Coffey, M.T. [1992...in a dry-snow Dethloff, K Biogeochemistry of antarctic sea ice: a case study on avalanche [1998, eng] 53-2018 Climate variability in a nonlinear...concrete with respect to Effect of the Endicott Causeway on the population of Ferguson, M.E. frost resistance: a case study [1998, eng] 53-952 broad
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An early warning system for high climate sensitivity? (Invited)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pierrehumbert, R.
2010-12-01
The scientific case for the clear and present danger of global warming has been unassailable at least since the release of the Charney Report more than thirty years ago, if not longer. While prompt action to begin decarbonizing energy systems could still head off much of the potential warming, it is distinctly possible that emissions will continue unabated in the coming decades, leading to a doubling or more of pre-industrial carbon dioxide concentrations. At present, we are in the unenviable position of not even knowing how bad things will get if this scenario comes to pass, because of the uncertainty in climate sensitivity. If climate sensitivity is high, then the consequences will be dire, perhaps even catastrophic. As the world continues to warm in response to continued carbon dioxide emissions, will we at least be able to monitor the climate and provide an early warning that the planet is on a high-sensitivity track, if such turns out to be the case? At what point will we actually know the climate sensitivity? It has long been recognized that the prime contributor to uncertainty in climate sensitivity is uncertainty in cloud feedbacks. Study of paleoclimate and climate of the past century has not been able to resolve which models do cloud feedback most correctly, because of uncertainties in radiative forcing. In this talk, I will discuss monitoring requirements, and analysis techniques, that might have the potential to determine which climate models most faithfully represent climate feedbacks, and thus determine which models provide the best estimate of climate sensitivity. The endeavor is complicated by the distinction between transient climate response and equilibrium climate sensitivity. I will discuss the particular challenges posed by this issue, particularly in light of recent indications that the pattern of ocean heat storage may lead to different cloud feedbacks in the transient warming stage than apply once the system has reached equilibrium. Apart from this problem, the transient nature of climate response driven by increasing CO2 requires careful monitoring of ocean heat storage as well as top-of-atmosphere radiative budgets, if climate sensitivity is to be estimated. Water vapor feedback is not considered as uncertain as cloud feedback, but there is still a considerable potential for surprises. I will discuss microwave monitoring requirements for tracking water vapor feedback. At the other extreme, the longer term feedbacks that contribute to Earth System Sensitivity are even more uncertain than cloud feedbacks, particularly with regard to the terrestrial carbon cycle. Prospects for obtaining an early warning of a PETM-type organic carbon release seem bleak. Finally, I will discuss the particular challenge of obtaining an early warning of high climate sensitivity in the case that the climate system has a bifurcation.
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Profiting from the sale of carbon offsets: a case study of the Trigg Ranch
Hannah Gosnell; Nicole Robinson-Maness; Susan Charnley
2011-01-01
One result of growing concerns about climate change has been the development of a variety of market-based mechanisms aimed at incentivizing agricultural landowners to manage their lands in ways that mitigate climate change through carbon sequestration. Most of this attention has been aimed at engaging forest and farm owners in the voluntary carbon market, but in recent...
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Azad Henareh Khalyani; William A. Gould; Eric Harmsen; Adam Terando; Maya Quinones; Jaime A. Collazo
2016-01-01
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Caine, Rebecca
2012-01-01
The University of Colorado at Boulder's student run Environmental Center leads the campus' sustainability efforts. The Center created the Energy and Climate Revolving Fund (ECRF) in 2007 to finance energy-efficiency upgrades. The ECRF functions as a source of funding for project loans and provides a method of financing projects that seeks to save…
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Lu Hao; Ge Sun; Yongqiang Liu; Hong Qian
2015-01-01
Water resource management is becoming increasingly challenging in northern China because of the rapid increase in water demand and decline in water supply due to climate change. We provide a case study demonstrating the importance of integrated watershed management in sustaining water resources in Chifeng City, northern China. We examine the consequences of various...
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Daniel J. Murphy; Laurie Yung; Carina Wyborn; Daniel R. Williams
2017-01-01
This paper critically examines the temporal and spatial dynamics of adaptation in climate change science and explores how dynamic notions of 'place' elucidate novel ways of understanding community vulnerability and adaptation. Using data gathered from a narrative scenario-building process carried out among communities of the Big Hole Valley in Montana, the...
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sabzevari, Azadeh Arbabi; Miri, Morteza; Raziei, Tayeb; Oroji, Hassan; Rahimi, Mojtaba
2018-03-01
The present study aims to evaluate the influence of climate conditions on tourism in the port of Chabahar, southeastern Iran, using the climate comfort indices (CIT, PMV, and TCI) and the field data relative to the tourist satisfaction. According to the computed TCI, the autumn-winter season (October-April) is climatically favorable for tourism in Chabahar, but it is ideal during January to March. Based on the computed PMV index, the studied region is in the range of climate comfort in most parts of the year. However, when the PMV thermal comfort limits (- 0.5 < PMV < 0.5) and the PPD limits (0 < PPD < 10) are considered, only the March and November are included in the thermal comfort range. The CIT index also indicates that all months of the year are acceptable for tourism that does not coincide with the reality of the region. However, by blending the PMV and the tourist's degree of satisfaction, a slight modification was made to the CIT index to better represent the reality of the region regarding the climate comfort. The modified CIT gave a different result, reflecting the importance of tourists' perceptions in defining the climate comfort rather than merely relying on the climate variables. The modified CIT also suggests November-March as a period with favorable to ideal climate condition for tourism in Chabahar which is a more realistic assessment of climate condition of the region as perceived by the tourists interviewed.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Mensing, Scott A.; Tunno, Irene; Sagnotti, Leonardo; Florindo, Fabio; Noble, Paula; Archer, Claire; Zimmerman, Susan; Pavón-Carrasco, Francisco Javier; Cifani, Gabriele; Passigli, Susanna; Piovesan, Gianluca
2015-05-01
Abrupt climate change in the past is thought to have disrupted societies by accelerating environmental degradation, potentially leading to cultural collapse. Linking climate change directly to societal disruption is challenging because socioeconomic factors also play a large role, with climate being secondary or sometimes inconsequential. Combining paleolimnologic, historical, and archaeological methods provides for a more secure basis for interpreting the past impacts of climate on society. We present pollen, non-pollen palynomorph, geochemical, paleomagnetic and sedimentary data from a high-resolution 2700 yr lake sediment core from central Italy and compare these data with local historical documents and archeological surveys to reconstruct a record of environmental change in relation to socioeconomic history and climatic fluctuations. Here we document cases in which environmental change is strongly linked to changes in local land management practices in the absence of clear climatic change, as well as examples when climate change appears to have been a strong catalyst that resulted in significant environmental change that impacted local communities. During the Imperial Roman period, despite a long period of stable, mild climate, and a large urban population in nearby Rome, our site shows only limited evidence for environmental degradation. Warm and mild climate during the Medieval Warm period, on the other hand, led to widespread deforestation and erosion. The ability of the Romans to utilize imported resources through an extensive trade network may have allowed for preservation of the environment near the Roman capital, whereas during medieval time, the need to rely on local resources led to environmental degradation. Cool wet climate during the Little Ice Age led to a breakdown in local land use practices, widespread land abandonment and rapid reforestation. Our results present a high-resolution regional case study that explores the effect of climate change on society for an under-documented region of Europe.
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Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.
2014-12-01
Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Malek, K.; Adam, J. C.; Richey, A.; Rushi, B. R.; Stockle, C.; Yoder, J.; Barik, M.; Lee, S. Y.; Rajagopalan, K.; Brady, M.; Barber, M. E.; Boll, J.; Padowski, J.
2017-12-01
The U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW) plays a significant role in meeting agricultural and hydroelectric demands nationwide. Climatic and anthropogenic stressors, however, potentially threaten the productivity, resilience, and environmental health of the region. Our objective is to understand how resilience of each Food-Energy-Water (FEW) sector, and the combined Nexus, respond to exogenous perturbations and the extent to which technological and institutional advances can buffer these perturbations. In the process of taking information from complex integrated models and assessing resilience across FEW sectors, we start with two case studies: 1) Columbia River Treaty (CRT) with Canada that determines how multiple reservoirs in the Columbia River basin (CRB) are operated, and 2) climate change adaptation actions in the Yakima River basin (YRB). We discuss these case studies in terms of the similarities and contrasts related to FEW sectors and management complexities. Both the CRB and YBP systems are highly sensitive to climate change (they are both snowmelt-dominant) and already experience water conflict. The CRT is currently undergoing renegotiation; a new CRT will need to consider a much more comprehensive approach, e.g., treating environmental flows explicitly. The YRB also already experiences significant water conflict and thus the comprehensive Yakima Basin Integrated Plan (YBIP) is being pursued. We apply a new modeling framework that mechanistically captures the interactions between the FEW sectors to quantify the impacts of CRT and YBIP planning (as well as adaptation decisions taken by individuals, e.g., irrigators) on resilience in each sector. Proposed modification to the CRT may relieve impacts to multiple sectors. However, in the YRB, irrigators' actions to adapt to climate change (through investing in more efficient irrigation technology) could reduce downstream water availability for other users. Developing a process to quantify resilience to perturbations, such as climate change, will enable innovative solutions that co-balance benefits, and ultimately increase resilience, across all FEW sectors.
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Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.
Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn
2014-01-01
Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.
2018-03-01
Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.
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Climate limits across space and time on European forest structure
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moreno, A. L. S.; Neumann, M.; Hasenauer, H.
2017-12-01
The impact climate has on forests has been extensively studied. However, the large scale effect climate has on forest structures, such as average diameters, heights and basal area are understudied in a spatially explicit manner. The limits, tipping points and thresholds that climate places on forest structures dictate the services a forest may provide, the vulnerability of a forest to mortality and the potential value of the timber there within. The majority of current research either investigates climate impacts on forest pools and fluxes, on a tree physiological scale or on case studies that are used to extrapolate results and potential impacts. A spatially explicit study on how climate affects forest structure over a large region would give valuable information to stakeholders who are more concerned with ecosystem services that cannot be described by pools and fluxes but require spatially explicit information - such as biodiversity, habitat suitability, and market values. In this study, we quantified the limits that climate (maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) places on 3 forest structures, diameter at breast height, height, and basal area throughout Europe. Our results show clear climatic zones of high and low upper limits for each forest structure variable studied. We also spatially analyzed how climate restricts the potential bio-physical upper limits and creates tipping points of each forest structure variable and which climate factors are most limiting. Further, we demonstrated how the climate change has affected 8 individual forests across Europe and then the continent as a whole. We find that diameter, height and basal area are limited by climate in different ways and that areas may have high upper limits in one structure and low upper limits in another limitted by different climate variables. We also found that even though individual forests may have increased their potential upper limit forest structure values, European forests as a whole have lost, on average, 5.0%, 1.7% and 6.5% in potential mean forest diameter, height and basal area, respectively.
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Uncertainty of tipping elements on risk analysis in hydrology under climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Tawatari, R.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.
2015-12-01
Risk analysis in this study characterizes the events that could be caused by climate change and estimates their effects on society. In order to characterize climate change risks, events that might be caused by climate change will be investigated focusing on critical geophysical phenomena such as changes in thermohaline circulation (THC) in oceans and the large-scale melting of the Greenland and other ice sheets. The results of numerical experiments with climate models and paleoclimate studies will be referenced in listing up these phenomena. The trigger mechanisms, tendency to occur and relationship of these phenomena to global climate will be clarified. To clarify that relationship between the RCP scenarios and tipping elements, we identified which year tipping elements in case of "Arctic summer sea ice" and "Greenland ice sheet" are appeared using the increase of global average temperature in 5 GCMs under RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from Zickfeld et al. (2013) and IPCC (2013), and tipping point of each tipping elements from IPCC (2013). In case of "Greenland ice sheet" (Tipping point takes a value within the range of 1.0oC and 4.0oC), we found that "Greenland ice sheet" may melt down when the tipping point is 1.0oC as lowest value. On the other hand, when tipping point sets as 4.0oC, it may not melt down except for RCP 8.5. As above, we show the uncertainty of tipping point itself. In future, it is necessary how to reflect such uncertainty in risk analysis in hydrology.
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Salvini, G; Ligtenberg, A; van Paassen, A; Bregt, A K; Avitabile, V; Herold, M
2016-05-01
Finding land use strategies that merge land-based climate change mitigation measures and adaptation strategies is still an open issue in climate discourse. This article explores synergies and trade-offs between REDD+, a scheme that focuses mainly on mitigation through forest conservation, with "Climate Smart Agriculture", an approach that emphasizes adaptive agriculture. We introduce a framework for ex-ante assessment of the impact of land management policies and interventions and for quantifying their impacts on land-based mitigation and adaptation goals. The framework includes a companion modelling (ComMod) process informed by interviews with policymakers, local experts and local farmers. The ComMod process consists of a Role-Playing Game with local farmers and an Agent Based Model. The game provided a participatory means to develop policy and climate change scenarios. These scenarios were then used as inputs to the Agent Based Model, a spatially explicit model to simulate landscape dynamics and the associated carbon emissions over decades. We applied the framework using as case study a community in central Vietnam, characterized by deforestation for subsistence agriculture and cultivation of acacias as a cash crop. The main findings show that the framework is useful in guiding consideration of local stakeholders' goals, needs and constraints. Additionally the framework provided beneficial information to policymakers, pointing to ways that policies might be re-designed to make them better tailored to local circumstances and therefore more effective in addressing synergistically climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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2011-01-01
Background Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is an important infectious disease caused by different species of hantaviruses. As a rodent-borne disease with a seasonal distribution, external environmental factors including climate factors may play a significant role in its transmission. The city of Shenyang is one of the most seriously endemic areas for HFRS. Here, we characterized the dynamic temporal trend of HFRS, and identified climate-related risk factors and their roles in HFRS transmission in Shenyang, China. Methods The annual and monthly cumulative numbers of HFRS cases from 2004 to 2009 were calculated and plotted to show the annual and seasonal fluctuation in Shenyang. Cross-correlation and autocorrelation analyses were performed to detect the lagged effect of climate factors on HFRS transmission and the autocorrelation of monthly HFRS cases. Principal component analysis was constructed by using climate data from 2004 to 2009 to extract principal components of climate factors to reduce co-linearity. The extracted principal components and autocorrelation terms of monthly HFRS cases were added into a multiple regression model called principal components regression model (PCR) to quantify the relationship between climate factors, autocorrelation terms and transmission of HFRS. The PCR model was compared to a general multiple regression model conducted only with climate factors as independent variables. Results A distinctly declining temporal trend of annual HFRS incidence was identified. HFRS cases were reported every month, and the two peak periods occurred in spring (March to May) and winter (November to January), during which, nearly 75% of the HFRS cases were reported. Three principal components were extracted with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.06%. Component 1 represented MinRH0, MT1, RH1, and MWV1; component 2 represented RH2, MaxT3, and MAP3; and component 3 represented MaxT2, MAP2, and MWV2. The PCR model was composed of three principal components and two autocorrelation terms. The association between HFRS epidemics and climate factors was better explained in the PCR model (F = 446.452, P < 0.001, adjusted R2 = 0.75) than in the general multiple regression model (F = 223.670, P < 0.000, adjusted R2 = 0.51). Conclusion The temporal distribution of HFRS in Shenyang varied in different years with a distinctly declining trend. The monthly trends of HFRS were significantly associated with local temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, air pressure, and wind velocity of the different previous months. The model conducted in this study will make HFRS surveillance simpler and the control of HFRS more targeted in Shenyang. PMID:22133347
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Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R
2014-09-15
Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Malard, J. J.; Rojas, M.; Adamowski, J. F.; Gálvez, J.; Tuy, H. A.; Melgar-Quiñonez, H.
2015-12-01
While cropping models represent the biophysical aspects of agricultural systems, system dynamics modelling offers the possibility of representing the socioeconomic (including social and cultural) aspects of these systems. The two types of models can then be coupled in order to include the socioeconomic dimensions of climate change adaptation in the predictions of cropping models.We develop a dynamically coupled socioeconomic-biophysical model of agricultural production and its repercussions on food security in two case studies from Guatemala (a market-based, intensive agricultural system and a low-input, subsistence crop-based system). Through the specification of the climate inputs to the cropping model, the impacts of climate change on the entire system can be analysed, and the participatory nature of the system dynamics model-building process, in which stakeholders from NGOs to local governmental extension workers were included, helps ensure local trust in and use of the model.However, the analysis of climate variability's impacts on agroecosystems includes uncertainty, especially in the case of joint physical-socioeconomic modelling, and the explicit representation of this uncertainty in the participatory development of the models is important to ensure appropriate use of the models by the end users. In addition, standard model calibration, validation, and uncertainty interval estimation techniques used for physically-based models are impractical in the case of socioeconomic modelling. We present a methodology for the calibration and uncertainty analysis of coupled biophysical (cropping) and system dynamics (socioeconomic) agricultural models, using survey data and expert input to calibrate and evaluate the uncertainty of the system dynamics as well as of the overall coupled model. This approach offers an important tool for local decision makers to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change and their feedbacks through the associated socioeconomic system.
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Rial-Lovera, Karen; Davies, W Paul; Cannon, Nicola D
2017-01-01
The UK, like the rest of the world, is confronting the impacts of climate change. Further changes are expected and they will have a profound effect on agriculture. Future crop production will take place against increasing CO 2 levels and temperatures, decreasing water availability, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. This review contributes to research on agricultural practices for climate change, but with a more regional perspective. The present study explores climate change impacts on UK agriculture, particularly food crop production, and how to mitigate and build resilience to climate change by adopting and/or changing soil management practices, including fertilisation and tillage systems, new crop adoption and variety choice. Some mitigation can be adopted in the shorter term, such as changes in crop type and reduction in fertiliser use, but in other cases the options will need greater investment and longer adaptation period. This is the case for new crop variety development and deployment, and possible changes to soil cultivations. Uncertainty of future weather conditions, particularly extreme weather, also affect decision-making for adoption of practices by farmers to ensure more stable and sustainable production. Even when there is real potential for climate change mitigation, it can sometimes be more difficult to accomplish with certainty on-farm. Better future climate projections and long-term investments will be required to create more resilient agricultural systems in the UK in the face of climate change challenges. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.
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Progress, decline, and the public uptake of climate science.
Rudiak-Gould, Peter
2014-02-01
Previous research has sought to explain public perception of climate change science in terms of individuals' "prior commitment" to such ideological stances as just-world belief, system justification, and liberalism/conservatism. One type of prior commitment that has received little formal attention in the literature is narratives of the moral trajectory of society. A theory of climate science uptake based on beliefs in societal progress or decline is more easily portable to non-Western settings; in a case study of global warming attitudes in the Marshall Islands, trajectory narratives indeed account for public belief, concern, blame, and response more aptly than existing theories, and accord well with qualitative analysis of Marshallese climate change discourse. In Western settings, progress/decline narratives may explain much of the variation in climate change attitudes previously accounted for by other ideological variables, promising a more penetrating explanation for the divergence of climate change attitudes within and between societies.
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Mesocosms Reveal Ecological Surprises from Climate Change.
Fordham, Damien A
2015-12-01
Understanding, predicting, and mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity poses one of the most crucial challenges this century. Currently, we know more about how future climates are likely to shift across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes. Two recent studies show how mesocosm experiments can hasten understanding of the ecological consequences of climate change on species' extinction risk, community structure, and ecosystem functions. Using a large-scale terrestrial warming experiment, Bestion et al. provide the first direct evidence that future global warming can increase extinction risk for temperate ectotherms. Using aquatic mesocosms, Yvon-Durocher et al. show that human-induced climate change could, in some cases, actually enhance the diversity of local communities, increasing productivity. Blending these theoretical and empirical results with computational models will improve forecasts of biodiversity loss and altered ecosystem processes due to climate change.
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Ngwa, Moise C; Liang, Song; Kracalik, Ian T; Morris, Lillian; Blackburn, Jason K; Mbam, Leonard M; Ba Pouth, Simon Franky Baonga; Teboh, Andrew; Yang, Yang; Arabi, Mouhaman; Sugimoto, Jonathan D; Morris, John Glenn
2016-11-01
Recurrent cholera outbreaks have been reported in Cameroon since 1971. However, case fatality ratios remain high, and we do not have an optimal understanding of the epidemiology of the disease, due in part to the diversity of Cameroon's climate subzones and a lack of comprehensive data at the health district level. A unique health district level dataset of reported cholera case numbers and related deaths from 2000-2012, obtained from the Ministry of Public Health of Cameroon and World Health Organization (WHO) country office, served as the basis for the analysis. During this time period, 43,474 cholera cases were reported: 1748 were fatal (mean annual case fatality ratio of 7.9%), with an attack rate of 17.9 reported cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Outbreaks occurred in three waves during the 13-year time period, with the highest case fatality ratios at the beginning of each wave. Seasonal patterns of illness differed strikingly between climate subzones (Sudano-Sahelian, Tropical Humid, Guinea Equatorial, and Equatorial Monsoon). In the northern Sudano-Sahelian subzone, highest number of cases tended to occur during the rainy season (July-September). The southern Equatorial Monsoon subzone reported cases year-round, with the lowest numbers during peak rainfall (July-September). A spatial clustering analysis identified multiple clusters of high incidence health districts during 2010 and 2011, which were the 2 years with the highest annual attack rates. A spatiotemporal autoregressive Poisson regression model fit to the 2010-2011 data identified significant associations between the risk of transmission and several factors, including the presence of major waterbody or highway, as well as the average daily maximum temperature and the precipitation levels over the preceding two weeks. The direction and/or magnitude of these associations differed between climate subzones, which, in turn, differed from national estimates that ignored subzones differences in climate variables. The epidemiology of cholera in Cameroon differs substantially between climate subzones. Development of an optimal comprehensive country-wide control strategy for cholera requires an understanding of the impact of the natural and built environment on transmission patterns at the local level, particularly in the setting of ongoing climate change.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
McGuffey, Amy R.
2016-01-01
A healthy school climate is necessary for improvement. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the construct validity and usability of the Comprehensive Assessment of School Environment (CASE) as it was purportedly realigned to the three dimensions of the Breaking Ranks Framework developed by the National Association of Secondary School…
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Land Application of Wastes: An Educational Program. Case Studies Reviewed - Module 14.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Clarkson, W. W.; And Others
This module provides information about 14 existing land application systems. Each case study gives the location and description of the system, volume treated, climate and soil type, cost, land area, and other data. A brief comment about the system is given as well as a more detailed discussion. References are cited which may be used to examine 100…
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Engaging a moving target: Adapting to rates of climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Shayegh, S.; Caldeira, K.; Moreno-Cruz, J.
2015-12-01
Climate change is affecting the planet and its human and natural systems at an increasing rate. As temperatures continue to rise, the international community has increasingly been considering adaptation measures to prepare for future climate change. However, most discussion around adaptation strategies has focused on preparedness for some expected amount of climate change impacts, e.g. 2 meters sea level rise. In this study, we discuss adaptation to rates of change as an alternative conceptual framework for thinking about adaptation. Adaptation is not only about adapting to amounts of change, but the rate at which these changes occur is also critically important. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal coastal investment in the face of ongoing sea level rise. Sea level rise threatens coastal assets. Finite resources could be devoted to building infrastructure further inland or to building coastal defense systems. A possible policy response could be to create a "no-build" coastal buffer zone that anticipates a future higher sea level. We present a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among various important factors (rate of sea level rise, discount rate, capital depreciation rate, attractiveness of coastal land, etc). For some cases, strategies that combine periodic defensive investments (e.g. dikes) with planned retreat can maximize welfare when adapting to rates of climate change. In other cases, planned retreat may be optimal. It is important to prepare for ongoing increasing amounts of climate change. Preparing for a fixed amount of climate change can lead to a suboptimal solution. Climate is likely to continue changing throughout this century and beyond. To reduce adverse climate impacts, ecosystems and human systems will need to continuously adapt to a moving target.
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An Earth longwave radiation climate model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Yang, S. K.
1984-01-01
An Earth outgoing longwave radiation (OLWR) climate model was constructed for radiation budget study. Required information is provided by on empirical 100mb water vapor mixing ratio equation of the mixing ratio interpolation scheme. Cloud top temperature is adjusted so that the calculation would agree with NOAA scanning radiometer measurements. Both clear sky and cloudy sky cases are calculated and discussed for global average, zonal average and world-wide distributed cases. The results agree well with the satellite observations. The clear sky case shows that the OLWR field is highly modulated by water vapor, especially in the tropics. The strongest longitudinal variation occurs in the tropics. This variation can be mostly explained by the strong water vapor gradient. Although in the zonal average case the tropics have a minimum in OLWR, the minimum is essentially contributed by a few very low flux regions, such as the Amazon, Indonesian and the Congo.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Abid, M.; Scheffran, J.; Schneider, U. A.; Ashfaq, M.
2015-05-01
Climate change is a global environmental threat to all economic sectors, particularly the agricultural sector. Pakistan is one of the countries negatively affected by climate change due to its high exposure to extreme events and low adaptive capacity. In Pakistan, farmers are the primary stakeholders in agriculture and are more at risk due to climate vulnerability. Based on farm household data from 450 households collected from three districts in three agroecological zones in the Punjab province of Pakistan, this study examines how farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt their farming in response to perceived changes in climate. The results demonstrate that awareness of climate change is widespread throughout the area, and farm households make adjustments to adapt their agriculture in response to climatic change. Overall 58% of the farm households adapted their farming to climate change. Changing crop varieties, changing planting dates, planting of shade trees and changing fertilizers were the main adaptation methods implemented by farm households in the study area. The results from the binary logistic model reveal that education, farm experience, household size, land area, tenancy status, ownership of a tube well, access to market information, information on weather forecasting and agricultural extension services all influence farmers' choices of adaptation measures. The results also indicate that adaptation to climate change is constrained by several factors such as lack of information, lack of money, resource constraints and shortage of irrigation water in the study area. Findings of the study suggest the need for greater investment in farmer education and improved institutional setup for climate change adaptation to improve farmers' wellbeing.
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Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Han, Jingcheng; Fan, Yurui
2016-04-01
Over the recent years, climate change impacts have been increasingly studied at the watershed scale. However, the impact assessment is strongly dependent upon the performance of the climatic and hydrological models. This study developed a two-step method to assess climate change impacts on water resources based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and a Hydrological Inference Model (HIM). PRECIS runs provided future temperature and precipitation projections for the watershed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The HIM based on stepwise cluster analysis is developed to imitate the complex nonlinear relationships between climate input variables and targeted hydrological variables. Its robust mathematical structure and flexibility in predictor selection makes it a desirable tool for fully utilizing various climate modeling outputs. Although PRECIS and HIM cannot fully cover the uncertainties in hydro-climate modeling, they could provide efficient decision support for investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. The proposed method is applied to the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model performance is demonstrated with comparison to observation data from the watershed during the period 1972-2006. Future river discharge intervals that accommodate uncertainties in hydro-climatic modeling are presented and future river discharge variations are analyzed. The results indicate that even though the total annual precipitation would not change significantly in the future, the inter-annual distribution is very likely to be altered. The water availability is expected to increase in Winter while it is very likely to decrease in Summer over the Grand River Watershed, and adaptation strategies would be necessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Climate, fishery and society interactions: Observations from the North Atlantic
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Hamilton, Lawrence C.
2007-11-01
Interdisciplinary studies comparing fisheries-dependent regions across the North Atlantic find a number of broad patterns. Large ecological shifts, disastrous to historical fisheries, have resulted when unfavorable climatic events occur atop overfishing. The "teleconnections" linking fisheries crises across long distances include human technology and markets, as well as climate or migratory fish species. Overfishing and climate-driven changes have led to a shift downwards in trophic levels of fisheries takes in some ecosystems, from dominance by bony fish to crustaceans. Fishing societies adapt to new ecological conditions through social reorganization that have benefited some people and places, while leaving others behind. Characteristic patterns of demographic change are among the symptoms of such reorganization. These general observations emerge from a review of recent case studies of individual fishing communities, such as those conducted for the North Atlantic Arc research project.
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Migration in the context of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change: insights from analogues
McLeman, Robert A.; Hunter, Lori M.
2011-01-01
Migration is one of the variety of ways by which human populations adapt to environmental changes. The study of migration in the context of anthropogenic climate change is often approached using the concept of vulnerability and its key functional elements: exposure, system sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This article explores the interaction of climate change and vulnerability through review of case studies of dry-season migration in the West African Sahel, hurricane-related population displacements in the Caribbean basin, winter migration of ‘snowbirds’ to the US Sun-belt, and 1930s drought migration on the North American Great Plains. These examples are then used as analogues for identifying general causal, temporal, and spatial dimensions of climate migration, along with potential considerations for policy-making and future research needs. PMID:22022342
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
MacDonald, G. M.; Ambrose, R. F.; Thorne, K.; Takekawa, J.; Brown, L. N.; Fejtek, S.; Gold, M.; Rosencranz, J.
2015-12-01
Frustrations regarding the provision of actionable science extend to both producers and consumers. Scientists decry the lack of application of their research in shaping policy and practices while decision makers bemoan the lack of applicability of scientific research to the specific problems at hand or its narrow focus relative to the plethora of engineering, economic and social considerations that they must also consider. Incorporating climate change adds additional complexity due to uncertainties in estimating many facets of future climate, the inherent variability of climate and the decadal scales over which significant changes will develop. Recently a set of guidelines for successful science-policy interaction was derived from the analysis of transboundary water management. These are; 1 recognizing that science is a crucial but bounded input into the decision-making processes, 2 early establishment of conditions for collaboration and shared commitment among participants, 3 understanding that science-policy interactions are enhanced through greater collaboration and social or group-learning processes, 4 accepting that the collaborative production of knowledge is essential to build legitimate decision-making processes, and 5 engaging boundary organizations and informal networks as well as formal stakeholders. Here we present as a case study research on California coastal marshes, climate change and sea-level that is being conducted by university and USGS scientists under the auspices of the Southwest Climate Science Center. We also present research needs identified by a seperate analysis of best practices for coastal marsh restoration in the face of climate change that was conducted in extensive consultation with planners and managers. The initial communication, scientific research and outreach-dissemination of the marsh scientfic study are outlined and compared to best practices needs identified by planners and the science-policy guidelines outlined above. Matches, mismatches, early-stage evidence of applicability and potential improvements of program development and design are considered.
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Climate variations and salmonellosis in northwest Russia: a time-series analysis.
Grjibovski, A M; Bushueva, V; Boltenkov, V P; Buzinov, R V; Degteva, G N; Yurasova, E D; Nurse, J
2013-02-01
Associations between monthly counts of all laboratory-confirmed cases of salmonellosis in Arkhangelsk, northern Russia, from 1992 to 2008 and climatic variables with lags 0-2 were studied by three different models. We observed a linear association between the number of cases of salmonellosis and mean monthly temperature with a lag of 1 month across the whole range of temperatures. An increase of 1 °C was associated with a 2·04% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·25-3·84], 1·84% (95% CI 0·06-3·63) and 2·32% (95% CI 0·38-4·27) increase in different models. Only one of the three models suggested an increase in the number of cases, by 0·24% (95% CI 0·02-0·46) with an increase in precipitation by 1 mm in the same month. Higher temperatures were associated with higher monthly counts of salmonellosis while the association with precipitation was less certain. The results may have implications for the future patterns of enteric infections in northern areas related to climate change.
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Biomimicry as an approach for sustainable architecture case of arid regions with hot and dry climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bouabdallah, Nabila; M'sellem, Houda; Alkama, Djamel
2016-07-01
This paper aims to study the problem of thermal comfort inside buildings located in hot and arid climates. The principal idea behind this research is using concepts based on the potential of nature as an instrument that helps creating appropriate facades with the environment "building skin". The biomimetic architecture imitates nature through the study of form, function, behaviour and ecosystems of biological organisms. This research aims to clarify the possibilities that can be offered by biomimicry architecture to develop architectural bio-inspired building's design that can help to enhance indoor thermal ambiance in buildings located in hot and dry climate which helps to achieve thermal comfort for users.
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Ensemble simulations to study the impact of land use change of Atlanta to regional climate
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, P.; Hu, Y.; Stone, B.; Vargo, J.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A.; Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A.
2012-12-01
Studies show that urban areas may be the "first responders" to climate change (Rosenzweig et al., 2010). Of particular interest is the potential increased temperatures in urban areas, due to use of structures and surfaces that increase local heating, and how that may impact health, air quality and other environmental factors. In response, interest has grown as to how the modification of land use in urban areas, in order to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization can serve to reduce local temperatures, and how climate is impacted more regionally. Studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of land use change on local or regional climate by dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), the boundary conditions (BCs) and initial conditions (ICs) of which result from coarser-resolution reanalysis data or general circulation models (GCMs). However, few studies have focused on demonstrating whether the land use change in local areas significantly impacts the climate of the larger region of the domain, and the spatial scale of the impact from urban-scale changes. This work investigated the significance of the impact of land use change in the Atlanta city area on different scales, using a range of modeling resolutions, including the contiguous US (with 36km resolution), the southeastern US (with 12km resolution) and the state of Georgia (with 4km resolution). We used WRF version 3.1.1 with and ran continuous from June to August of a simulated year 2050, driven by GISS ModelE with inputs corresponding to RCP4.5. During the simulation, spectral nudging is used in the 36km resolution domain to maintain the climate patterns with scales larger than 2000km. Two-way nesting is also used in order to take into account the feedback of nesting domains across model domains. Two land use cases over the Atlanta city are chosen. For the base case, most of the urban area of Atlanta is covered with forest; while for the second, "impervious" case, all the urban area within 30 miles of the center of Atlanta is replaced with asphalt. This choice is made to maximize the potential effects and scales of impact. To make the two cases different as much as possible, a constant green vegetation fraction of 1.0 is assigned to the forest over the Atlanta; while 0.0 is assigned to the asphalt. To test the significance of the impact of land use change, 5 ensemble members were generated for each land use case using different initial conditions. The results of student's t test found that the impact of land use change in Atlanta city has a very local impact. This finding indicates that using WRF, applied at continental and regional scales, with BCs from the GCM and with spectral nudging, is appropriate. Although our results showed the impact is very local, results may change when meteorological conditions change or the area where land use changes is increased. Therefore, when investigating the land use change relevant issues, similar testing is suggested in order to demonstrate that the domain is large enough so that downscaling by RCMs is an appropriate approach. References: Rosenzweig, C., W. Solecki, S.A. Hammer, and S. Mehrotra, 2010: Cities lead the way in climate-change action. Nature, 467, 909-911, doi:10.1038/467909a
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A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fiorucci, P.; Holmes, T.; Gaetani, F.; D'Andrea, M.
2009-04-01
Land cover change and forest fire interaction under climate and socio-economics changes, is one of the main issues of the 21th century. The capability of defining future scenarios of land cover and fire regime allow forest managers to better understand the best actions to be carried out and their long term effects. In this paper a new methodology for land cover change simulations under climate change and fire disturbance is presented and discussed. The methodology is based on the assumption that forest fires exhibits power law frequency-area distribution. The well known Forest Fire Model (FFM), which is an example of self organized criticality, is able to reproduce this behavior. Starting from this observation, a modified version of the FFM has been developed. The new model, called Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM) introduces several new features. A stochastic model for vegetation growth and regrowth after fire occurrence has been implemented for different kind of vegetations. In addition, a stochastic fire propagation model taking into account topography and vegetation cover has been introduced. The MFFM has been developed with the purpose of estimating vegetation cover changes and fire regimes over a time windows of many years for a given spatial region. Two different case studies have been carried out. The first case study is related with Liguria (Italy), a region of 5400 km2 lying between the Cote d'Azur, France, and Tuscany, Italy, on the northwest coast of the Tyrrhenian Sea. This region is characterized by Mediterranean fire regime. The second case study has been carried out in California (Florida) on a region having similar area and characterized by similar climate conditions. In both cases the model well represents the actual fire regime in terms of power law parameters proving interesting results about future land cover scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economics change.
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Developing Climate Change Literacy With the Humanities: A Narrative Approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Siperstein, S.
2015-12-01
Teaching the science and policy of climate change is necessary but insufficient for helping students to develop a robust climate literacy. Climate change educators must also teach students how to evaluate historical trends, to unpack the assumptions in shared cultural narratives, to grapple with ethical dilemmas, and more generally to traverse the turbulence of feeling that is a hallmark of living in a time of global climate chaos. In short, climate literacy must include the skills and strategies of the humanities, and specifically literary and cultural studies. After providing an overview of how literary and cultural studies scholars from around the world are developing innovative pedagogical methods for addressing climate change (drawing on the presenter's experience editing the forthcoming volume Teaching Climate Change in the Humanities), the presentation will then report on a specific Literary Genres course taught at the University of Oregon. The course, offered to undergraduate non-majors who entered the class with little or no knowledge of climate change, constituted a case study of action research into the transdisciplinary teaching of climate change. The presentation will thus draw on quantitative course assessments, student coursework, and the instructor's own experiences in arguing that three key narratives underpin the work we do as multidisciplinary climate change educators: narratives of observation, narratives of speculation, and narratives of conversion. That is, we guide students through the processes of witnessing climate change, imagining more just and sustainable futures, and by so doing, transforming themselves and their communities. In the particular Literary Genres course under consideration, students used the tools of literary and cultural studies first to analyze existing versions of these narratives and then to compose their own versions of these narratives based on their local communities and ecologies. In the context of multidisciplinary climate change education, one of the most important roles of the humanities is to empower students by giving them the critical and creative tools to tell their own climate stories.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.
2013-12-01
Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision makers can arrive at invalid conclusions from a seemingly valid scientific messages. Honest discussion of uncertainties, and recognition of the spatial and time scales associated with decision making, can work to combat this potential confusion.
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Lei, Yongdeng; Zhang, Hailin; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Linbo
2016-04-15
Under a warming climate, frequent drought and water scarcity in northern China have severely disrupted agricultural production and posed a substantial threat to farmers' livelihoods. Based on first-hand data collected through in-depth interviews with local managers and farmer households, this study evaluated the effectiveness of rural land use management in mitigating drought risk, ensuring food security and improving farmers' livelihoods. Our findings indicate that a) reforestation on low-yield cropland not only can improve the eco-environment but can also prominently mitigate the production risk to local farmers; b) replacing the traditional border irrigation with sprinkler irrigation has substantially curbed agricultural water usage and increased the per unit of output; and c) in recent years, instead of planting water-intensive grain crops, local farmers cultivated more forage crops to raise animals, which greatly diversified their income sources and reduced the drought risk of agricultural production. By performing an empirical case study in drought-prone Inner Mongolia, this study provides decision-makers with insights into how to strategically adapt to drought risk and reduce rural poverty within the broader context of climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René
2016-01-01
This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René
This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less
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Adaptation to climate through flowering phenology: a case study in Medicago truncatula.
Burgarella, Concetta; Chantret, Nathalie; Gay, Laurène; Prosperi, Jean-Marie; Bonhomme, Maxime; Tiffin, Peter; Young, Nevin D; Ronfort, Joelle
2016-07-01
Local climatic conditions likely constitute an important selective pressure on genes underlying important fitness-related traits such as flowering time, and in many species, flowering phenology and climatic gradients strongly covary. To test whether climate shapes the genetic variation on flowering time genes and to identify candidate flowering genes involved in the adaptation to environmental heterogeneity, we used a large Medicago truncatula core collection to examine the association between nucleotide polymorphisms at 224 candidate genes and both climate variables and flowering phenotypes. Unlike genome-wide studies, candidate gene approaches are expected to enrich for the number of meaningful trait associations because they specifically target genes that are known to affect the trait of interest. We found that flowering time mediates adaptation to climatic conditions mainly by variation at genes located upstream in the flowering pathways, close to the environmental stimuli. Variables related to the annual precipitation regime reflected selective constraints on flowering time genes better than the other variables tested (temperature, altitude, latitude or longitude). By comparing phenotype and climate associations, we identified 12 flowering genes as the most promising candidates responsible for phenological adaptation to climate. Four of these genes were located in the known flowering time QTL region on chromosome 7. However, climate and flowering associations also highlighted largely distinct gene sets, suggesting different genetic architectures for adaptation to climate and flowering onset. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tasquier, Giulia; Pongiglione, Francesca
2017-09-01
Climate change is one of the significant global challenges currently facing humanity. Even though its seriousness seems to be common knowledge among the public, the reaction of individuals to it has been slow and uncertain. Many studies assert that simply knowing about climate change is not enough to generate people's behavioural response. They claim, indeed, that in some cases scientific literacy can even obstruct behavioural response instead. However, recent surveys show a rather poor understanding of climate dynamics and argue that lack of knowledge about causal relationships within climate dynamics can hinder behavioural response, since the individual is not able to understand his/her role as causal agent and therefore doesn't know how to take proper action. This study starts from the hypothesis that scientific knowledge focused on clarifying climate dynamics can make people understand not only dynamics themselves, but also their interactive relationship with the environment. Teaching materials on climate change based on such considerations were designed and implemented in a course for secondary-school students with the aim of investigating whether this kind of knowledge had an influence on students' willingness to adopt pro-environmental behaviours. Questionnaires were delivered for testing the effect of the teaching experience on knowledge and behaviour.
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2012-06-02
regional climate model downscaling , J. Geophys. Res., 117, D11103, doi:10.1029/2012JD017692. 1. Introduction [2] Modeling studies and data analyses...based on ground and satellite data have demonstrated that the land surface state variables, such as soil moisture, snow, vegetation, and soil temperature... downscaling rather than simply applying reanal- ysis data as LBC for both Eta control and sensitivity experiments as done in many RCM sensitivity studies
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Sensitivity of the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum climate to cloud properties.
Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Shields, Christine A
2013-10-28
The Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) was a significant global warming event in the Earth's history (approx. 55 Ma). The cause for this warming event has been linked to increases in greenhouse gases, specifically carbon dioxide and methane. This rapid warming took place in the presence of the existing Early Eocene warm climate. Given that projected business-as-usual levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide reach concentrations of 800-1100 ppmv by 2100, it is of interest to study past climates where atmospheric carbon dioxide was higher than present. This is especially the case given the difficulty of climate models in simulating past warm climates. This study explores the sensitivity of the simulated pre-PETM and PETM periods to change in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and microphysical properties of liquid water clouds. Assuming lower levels of CCN for both of these periods leads to significant warming, especially at high latitudes. The study indicates that past differences in cloud properties may be an important factor in accurately simulating past warm climates. Importantly, additional shortwave warming from such a mechanism would imply lower required atmospheric CO2 concentrations for simulated surface temperatures to be in reasonable agreement with proxy data for the Eocene.
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How does climate warming affect plant-pollinator interactions?
Hegland, Stein Joar; Nielsen, Anders; Lázaro, Amparo; Bjerknes, Anne-Line; Totland, Ørjan
2009-02-01
Climate warming affects the phenology, local abundance and large-scale distribution of plants and pollinators. Despite this, there is still limited knowledge of how elevated temperatures affect plant-pollinator mutualisms and how changed availability of mutualistic partners influences the persistence of interacting species. Here we review the evidence of climate warming effects on plants and pollinators and discuss how their interactions may be affected by increased temperatures. The onset of flowering in plants and first appearance dates of pollinators in several cases appear to advance linearly in response to recent temperature increases. Phenological responses to climate warming may therefore occur at parallel magnitudes in plants and pollinators, although considerable variation in responses across species should be expected. Despite the overall similarities in responses, a few studies have shown that climate warming may generate temporal mismatches among the mutualistic partners. Mismatches in pollination interactions are still rarely explored and their demographic consequences are largely unknown. Studies on multi-species plant-pollinator assemblages indicate that the overall structure of pollination networks probably are robust against perturbations caused by climate warming. We suggest potential ways of studying warming-caused mismatches and their consequences for plant-pollinator interactions, and highlight the strengths and limitations of such approaches.
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An Investigation of Bomb Cyclogenesis in NCEP's CFS Model
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Alvarez, F. M.; Eichler, T.; Gottschalck, J.
2008-12-01
With the concerns, impacts and consequences of climate change increasing, the need for climate models to simulate daily weather is very important. Given the improvements in resolution and physical parameterizations, climate models are becoming capable of resolving extreme weather events. A particular type of extreme event which has large impacts on transportation, industry and the general public is a rapidly intensifying cyclone referred to as a "bomb." In this study, bombs are investigated using the National Center for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) model. We generate storm tracks based on 6-hourly sea-level pressure (SLP) from long-term climate runs of the CFS model. Investigation of this dataset has revealed that the CFS model is capable of producing bombs. We show a case study of a bomb in the CFS model and demonstrate that it has characteristics similar to the observed. Since the CFS model is capable of producing bombs, future work will focus on trends in their frequency and intensity so that an assessment of the potential role of the bomb in climate change can be assessed.
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Cunsolo Willox, Ashlee; Harper, Sherilee L; Ford, James D; Landman, Karen; Houle, Karen; Edge, Victoria L
2012-08-01
As climate change impacts are felt around the globe, people are increasingly exposed to changes in weather patterns, wildlife and vegetation, and water and food quality, access and availability in their local regions. These changes can impact human health and well-being in a variety of ways: increased risk of foodborne and waterborne diseases; increased frequency and distribution of vector-borne disease; increased mortality and injury due to extreme weather events and heat waves; increased respiratory and cardiovascular disease due to changes in air quality and increased allergens in the air; and increased susceptibility to mental and emotional health challenges. While climate change is a global phenomenon, the impacts are experienced most acutely in place; as such, a sense of place, place-attachment, and place-based identities are important indicators for climate-related health and adaptation. Representing one of the first qualitative case studies to examine the connections among climate change, a changing sense of place, and health in an Inuit context, this research draws data from a multi-year community-driven case study situated in the Inuit community of Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada. Data informing this paper were drawn from the narrative analysis of 72 in-depth interviews conducted from November 2009 to October 2010, as well as from the descriptive analysis of 112 questionnaires from a survey in October 2010 (95% response rate). The findings illustrated that climate change is negatively affecting feelings of place attachment by disrupting hunting, fishing, foraging, trapping, and traveling, and changing local landscapes-changes which subsequently impact physical, mental, and emotional health and well-being. These results also highlight the need to develop context-specific climate-health planning and adaptation programs, and call for an understanding of place-attachment as a vital indicator of health and well-being and for climate change to be framed as an important determinant of health. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Brown, Molly E.; Escobar, Vanessa M.; Lovell, Heather
2012-01-01
This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.
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Graceful Failure and Societal Resilience Analysis Via Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schopf, P. S.; Cioffi-Revilla, C.; Rogers, J. D.; Bassett, J.; Hailegiorgis, A. B.
2014-12-01
Agent-based social modeling is opening up new methodologies for the study of societal response to weather and climate hazards, and providing measures of resiliency that can be studied in many contexts, particularly in coupled human and natural-technological systems (CHANTS). Since CHANTS are complex adaptive systems, societal resiliency may or may not occur, depending on dynamics that lack closed form solutions. Agent-based modeling has been shown to provide a viable theoretical and methodological approach for analyzing and understanding disasters and societal resiliency in CHANTS. Our approach advances the science of societal resilience through computational modeling and simulation methods that complement earlier statistical and mathematical approaches. We present three case studies of social dynamics modeling that demonstrate the use of these agent based models. In Central Asia, we exmaine mutltiple ensemble simulations with varying climate statistics to see how droughts and zuds affect populations, transmission of wealth across generations, and the overall structure of the social system. In Eastern Africa, we explore how successive episodes of drought events affect the adaptive capacity of rural households. Human displacement, mainly, rural to urban migration, and livelihood transition particularly from pastoral to farming are observed as rural households interacting dynamically with the biophysical environment and continually adjust their behavior to accommodate changes in climate. In the far north case we demonstrate one of the first successful attempts to model the complete climate-permafrost-infrastructure-societal interaction network as a complex adaptive system/CHANTS implemented as a ``federated'' agent-based model using evolutionary computation. Analysis of population changes resulting from extreme weather across these and other cases provides evidence for the emergence of new steady states and shifting patterns of resilience.
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Role of Organizational Climate in Organizational Commitment: The Case of Teaching Hospitals.
Bahrami, Mohammad Amin; Barati, Omid; Ghoroghchian, Malake-Sadat; Montazer-Alfaraj, Razieh; Ranjbar Ezzatabadi, Mohammad
2016-04-01
The commitment of employees is affected by several factors, including factors related to the organizational climate. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between organizational commitment of nurses and the organizational climate in hospital settings. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 2014 at two teaching hospitals in Yazd, Iran. A total of 90 nurses in these hospitals participated. We used stratified random sampling of the nursing population. The required data were gathered using two valid questionnaires: Allen and Meyer's organizational commitment standard questionnaire and Halpin and Croft's Organizational Climate Description Questionnaire. Data analysis was done through SPSS 20 statistical software (IBM Corp., Armonk, NY, USA). We used descriptive statistics and Pearson's correlation coefficient for the data analysis. The findings indicated a positive and significant correlation between organizational commitment and organizational climate (r = 0.269, p = 0.01). There is also a significant positive relationship between avoidance of organizational climate and affective commitment (r = 0.208, p = 0.049) and between focus on production and normative and continuance commitment (r = 0.308, p = 0.003). Improving the organizational climate could be a valuable strategy for improving organizational commitment.
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Climate Teleconnections and Recent Patterns of Human and Animal Disease Outbreaks
2012-01-24
chikungunya and Rift Valley fever occurred 2004–2009. Chikungunya and Rift Valley fever case locations were mapped to corresponding climate data...anomalies. We illustrated the time lag between the driving climate conditions and the timing of the first case of Rift Valley fever. Results showed that...eastern- and-central Pacific Islands, Ecuador , and Peru. Similarly, there is a tendency for drought to occur over a large area of Southeast Asia
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The Ophidia framework: toward cloud-based data analytics for climate change
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fiore, Sandro; D'Anca, Alessandro; Elia, Donatello; Mancini, Marco; Mariello, Andrea; Mirto, Maria; Palazzo, Cosimo; Aloisio, Giovanni
2015-04-01
The Ophidia project is a research effort on big data analytics facing scientific data analysis challenges in the climate change domain. It provides parallel (server-side) data analysis, an internal storage model and a hierarchical data organization to manage large amount of multidimensional scientific data. The Ophidia analytics platform provides several MPI-based parallel operators to manipulate large datasets (data cubes) and array-based primitives to perform data analysis on large arrays of scientific data. The most relevant data analytics use cases implemented in national and international projects target fire danger prevention (OFIDIA), interactions between climate change and biodiversity (EUBrazilCC), climate indicators and remote data analysis (CLIP-C), sea situational awareness (TESSA), large scale data analytics on CMIP5 data in NetCDF format, Climate and Forecast (CF) convention compliant (ExArch). Two use cases regarding the EU FP7 EUBrazil Cloud Connect and the INTERREG OFIDIA projects will be presented during the talk. In the former case (EUBrazilCC) the Ophidia framework is being extended to integrate scalable VM-based solutions for the management of large volumes of scientific data (both climate and satellite data) in a cloud-based environment to study how climate change affects biodiversity. In the latter one (OFIDIA) the data analytics framework is being exploited to provide operational support regarding processing chains devoted to fire danger prevention. To tackle the project challenges, data analytics workflows consisting of about 130 operators perform, among the others, parallel data analysis, metadata management, virtual file system tasks, maps generation, rolling of datasets, import/export of datasets in NetCDF format. Finally, the entire Ophidia software stack has been deployed at CMCC on 24-nodes (16-cores/node) of the Athena HPC cluster. Moreover, a cloud-based release tested with OpenNebula is also available and running in the private cloud infrastructure of the CMCC Supercomputing Centre.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Stwertka, C.; Albert, M. R.; White, K. D.
2016-12-01
Despite widely available information about the adverse impacts of climate change to the public, including both private sector and federal fiscal exposure, there remain opportunities to effectively translate this knowledge into action. Further delay of climate preparedness and resilience actions imposes a growing toll on American communities and the United States fiscal budget. We hypothesize that a set of four criteria must be met before a community can translate climate disturbances into preparedness action. We examine four case studies to review these proposed criteria, we discuss the critical success factors that can build community resilience, and we define an operational strategy that could support community resilience while reducing the federal fiscal exposure to climate change. This operational strategy defines a community response system that integrates social science research, builds on the strengths of different sectors, values existing resources, and reduces the planning-to-action time. Our next steps are to apply this solution in the field, and to study the dynamics of community engagement and the circular economy.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Mullen, Karina C.; Newman, Gregory; Thompson, Jessica L.
2013-01-01
Interviews with national park visitors across the country revealed that climate change education through place-based, hands-on learning using repeat photographs and technology is appealing to park visitors. This manuscript provides a summary of the development of a repeat photography citizen science Web site for national parks in Southwest Alaska.…
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Economic development and declining vulnerability to climate-related disasters in China
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wu, Jidong; Han, Guoyi; Zhou, Hongjian; Li, Ning
2018-03-01
Exposure and vulnerability are the main contributing factors of growing impact from climate-related disasters globally. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamic patterns of vulnerability is important for designing effective disaster risk mitigation and adaptation measures. At national scale, most cross-country studies have suggested that economic vulnerability to disasters decreases as income increases, especially for developing countries. Research covering sub-national climate-related natural disasters is indispensable to obtaining a comprehensive understanding of the effect of regional economic growth on vulnerability reduction. Taking China as a case, this subnational scale study shows that economic development is correlated with the significant reduction in human fatalities but increase in direct economic losses (DELs) from climate-related disasters since 1949. The long-term trend in climate-related disaster vulnerability, reflected by mortality (1978-2015) and DELs (1990-2015) as a share of the total population and Gross Domestic Product, has seen significant decline among all economic regions in China. While notable differences remain among its West, Central and East economic regions, the temporal vulnerability change has been converging. The study further demonstrated that economic development level is correlated with human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters, and this vulnerability decreased with the increase of per-capita income. This study suggested that economic development can have nuanced effects on overall human and economic vulnerability to climate-related disasters. We argue that climate change science needs to acknowledge and examine the different pathways of vulnerability effects related to economic development.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
None
Air infiltration and ventilation in residential buildings is a very large part of the heating loads, but empirical data regarding the impact on space cooling has been lacking. Moreover, there has been little data on how building tightness might relate to building interior moisture levels in homes in a hot and humid climate. To address this need, BA-PIRC conducted research to assess the moisture and cooling load impacts of airtightness and mechanical ventilation in two identical laboratory homes in the hot-humid climate over the cooling season.
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Climate Change and Waterborne Diarrhoea in Northern India: Impact and Adaptation Strategies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Moors, Eddy; Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Balakrishnan, Sneha; Mishra, Arabinda
2013-04-01
Although some studies showed the vulnerability of human health to climate change (e.g. 22.000 to 45.000 excess mortality cases during the heat waves in Europe, or the association of malaria outbreaks with El Niño) a clear quantification of the increased risks attributable to climate change is often lacking. Even more complicated are the assessments of the adaptation measures for this sector. Adaptation measures are in most cases very site specific. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of waterborne disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of Northern India. India is by far the leading country when it comes to child mortality under five years caused by diarrhoea and accounted for 386.600 deaths in 2007. Estimates on the increased risk of diarrhoea as a result of increased temperature in the 2030ies range between 8-11%. Uncertainties around these estimates mainly relate to the few studies that have characterized the exposure-response relationship and inter-model discrepancy of climate models. The influence of other climate parameters than temperature on diarrhoea in the future has not been assessed. As empirical studies and surveillance data for India are lacking we developed a conceptual framework for climate exposure-response relationships based on a literature review and applied it to future climate projections for the Ganges basin. Four climate variables are analysed: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. In an analysis of reports on diarrhoea outbreaks we show the spatial and temporal distribution over the subcontinent. Most cases of diarrhoea occur during the hot summer (23%) and the wet and humid monsoon (57%) months. These reports often suggest sewage and pipe leakage as the leading cause of the local outbreaks. We demonstrate the applicability of the conceptual framework for the two districts in West Bengal, North and South 24 Parganas. All climate factors correlated positively with diarrhoea incidences. However, for relative humidity a positive correlation was not in line with the framework. Combining the impact of all four parameters gives an indication of the overall impact of climate change on diarrhoea in northern India. For the projected changes between current and future (2040ies), the expected impact ranges from no change to an increase of 21% in incidences, with 12% increase on average for the whole of northern India. The mid and mid-eastern region are expected to experience a high increase in incidences above average, influenced by the combined impacts of higher temperatures and decreases in humidity and precipitation. Actions to improve the health situation are often driven by daily realities and pressures of the current development context. However, improvements which are robust on the long term should incorporate future projections of population, economic growth, physical urban expansion, health sector development? and climate change. This can pose a challenge at first, but can also generate new incentives and innovations to tackle pressing problems. We discuss three types of measures: reactive actions, preventive actions and policy options and make recommendations on their applicability.
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Modeling the impact of climate variability on diarrhea-associated diseases in Taiwan (1996-2007).
Chou, Wei-Chun; Wu, Jiunn-Lin; Wang, Yu-Chun; Huang, Hsin; Sung, Fung-Chang; Chuang, Chun-Yu
2010-12-01
Diarrhea is an important public health problem in Taiwan. Climatic changes and an increase in extreme weather events (extreme heat, drought or rainfalls) have been strongly linked to the incidence of diarrhea-associated disease. This study investigated and quantified the relationship between climate variations and diarrhea-associated morbidity in subtropical Taiwan. Specifically, this study analyzed the local climatic variables and the number of diarrhea-associated infection cases from 1996 to 2007. This study applied a climate variation-guided Poisson regression model to predict the dynamics of diarrhea-associated morbidity. The proposed model allows for climate factors (relative humidity, maximum temperature and the numbers of extreme rainfall), autoregression, long-term trends and seasonality, and a lag-time effect. Results indicated that the maximum temperature and extreme rainfall days were strongly related to diarrhea-associated morbidity. The impact of maximum temperature on diarrhea-associated morbidity appeared primarily among children (0-14years) and older adults (40-64years), and had less of an effect on adults (15-39years). Otherwise, relative humidity and extreme rainfall days significantly contributed to the diarrhea-associated morbidity in adult. This suggested that children and older adults were the most susceptible to diarrhea-associated morbidity caused by climatic variation. Because climatic variation contributed to diarrhea morbidity in Taiwan, it is necessary to develop an early warning system based on the climatic variation information for disease control management. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Racherla, P. N.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G. S.
2012-01-01
Dynamical downscaling is being increasingly used for climate change studies, wherein the climates simulated by a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) for a historical and a future (projected) decade are used to drive a regional climate model (RCM) over a specific area. While previous studies have demonstrated that RCMs can add value to AOGCM-simulated climatologies over different world regions, it is unclear as to whether or not this translates to a better reproduction of the observed climate change therein. We address this issue over the continental U.S. using the GISS-ModelE2 and WRF models, a state-of-the-science AOGCM and RCM, respectively. As configured here, the RCM does not effect holistic improvement in the seasonally and regionally averaged surface air temperature or precipitation for the individual historical decades. Insofar as the climate change between the two decades is concerned, the RCM does improve upon the AOGCM when nudged in the domain proper, but only modestly so. Further, the analysis indicates that there is not a strong relationship between skill in capturing climatological means and skill in capturing climate change. Though additional research would be needed to demonstrate the robustness of this finding in AOGCM/RCM models generally, the evidence indicates that, for climate change studies, the most important factor is the skill of the driving global model itself, suggesting that highest priority should be given to improving the long-range climate skill of AOGCMs.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ranger, N.; Millner, A.; Niehoerster, F.
2010-12-01
Traditionally, climate change risk assessments have taken a roughly four-stage linear ‘chain’ of moving from socioeconomic projections, to climate projections, to primary impacts and then finally onto economic and social impact assessment. Adaptation decisions are then made on the basis of these outputs. The escalation of uncertainty through this chain is well known; resulting in an ‘explosion’ of uncertainties in the final risk and adaptation assessment. The space of plausible future risk scenarios is growing ever wider with the application of new techniques which aim to explore uncertainty ever more deeply; such as those used in the recent ‘probabilistic’ UK Climate Projections 2009, and the stochastic integrated assessment models, for example PAGE2002. This explosion of uncertainty can make decision-making problematic, particularly given that the uncertainty information communicated can not be treated as strictly probabilistic and therefore, is not an easy fit with standard decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Additional problems can arise from the fact that the uncertainty estimated for different components of the ‘chain’ is rarely directly comparable or combinable. Here, we explore the challenges and limitations of using current projections for adaptation decision-making. We report the findings of a recent report completed for the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee on approaches to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today. To illustrate these approaches, we take a number of illustrative case studies, including a case of adaptation to hurricane risk on the US Gulf Coast. This is a particularly interesting case as it involves urgent adaptation of long-lived infrastructure but requires interpreting highly uncertain climate change science and modelling; i.e. projections of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. An approach we outline is reversing the linear chain of assessments to put the economics and decision-making first. Such an approach forces one to focus on the information of greatest value for the specific decision. We suggest that such an approach will help to accommodate the uncertainties in the chain and facilitate robust decision-making. Initial findings of these case studies will be presented with the aim of raising open questions and promoting discussion of the methodology. Finally, we reflect on the implications for the design of climate model experiments.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tourre, Y. M.
2009-12-01
Climate and environment vary on many spatio-temporal scales, including climate change, with impacts on ecosystems, vector-borne diseases and public health worldwide. This study is to enable societal benefits from a conceptual approach by mapping climatic and environmental conditions from space and understanding the mechanisms within the Health Social Benefit GEOSS area. The case study is for Rift Valley Fever (RVF) epidemics in Senegal is presented. Ponds contributing to mosquitoes’ thriving, were identified from remote sensing using high-resolution SPOT-5 satellite images. Additional data on ponds’ dynamics and rainfall events (obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) were combined with hydrological in-situ data. Localization of vulnerable hosts such as parked cattle (from QuickBird satellite) are also used. Dynamic spatio-temporal distribution of Aedes vexans density (one of the main RVF vectors) is based on the total rainfall amount and ponds’ dynamics. While Zones Potentially Occupied by Mosquitoes (ZPOM) are mapped, detailed risks areas, i.e. zones where hazards and vulnerability occur, are expressed in percentages of parks where cattle is potentially exposed to mosquitoes’ bites. This new conceptual approach, using remote-sensing techniques belonging to GEOSS, simply relies upon rainfall distribution also evaluated from space. It is meant to contribute to the implementation of integrated operational early warning system within the health application communities since climatic and environmental conditions (both natural and anthropogenic) are changing rapidly.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Naranjo, M.; Tortajada, C.
2012-04-01
Climate change and its possible impacts on precipitation are still a matter of controversy due to lack of data as well as models which are considered reliable. Even though the science of climate change has advanced significantly in recent years, many uncertainties still prevail, ranging from reliable prediction of extreme river flow events to downscaling of rainfall to smaller planning areas. That is, present knowledge is still insufficient to understand and accurately predict how global changes, climate change one of them, may affect precipitation and streamflows over specific geographical units. In terms of planning and investment in urban areas, where more than 50 percent of the population live at present, freshwater supply and flood risk management have to be considered on long-term basis. This includes development of water infrastructure for drinking water supply and drainage as well as flood control which responds to the needs of the growing populations and their economies. Impacts of climate change are slow over time and take place over thousands of years. However, their study is relatively recent, mostly in terms of impacts on the hydrological cycle and therefore in terms of run-off. In the case of urban centres, the rationale is that governments will have to adapt the water infrastructure according to the expected changes and thus have to plan for them. For example, in the case of Mexico City, the way the drainage system was designed 100 years ago is very different from the way it would be done at present and the way it would be planned in about 50 years time. In the case of the city of Alcalá de Henares in the region of Madrid, the analysis of precipitations has shown a slight tendency towards a wet period from the decade of the 60´s. Due to this tendency, the calculations for the design of water infrastructures have remained virtually unchanged. In the case of this specific city, there is no indication that there will be dramatic or rapid changes in terms of precipitation in the coming years. In the case of Mexico City, studies regarding precipitation have shown a trend toward a wetter period from the decade of the 50's. Nevertheless, there are no evidences that there will be a drastic change in terms of precipitation patterns. In these two specific cities, studies carried out show that adaptation measures that emerged long time ago have been satisfactory. Nevertheless, these measures have been the result of many other changes (urban change, population growth, etc), and not only climate change. In any case, floods affect almost every city in the world and they will not disappear due to its complex nature. Adaptation measures should thus take into consideration multiple aspects such as broader policy areas, institutional frameworks, management practices, human resources, etc., which affect the whole spectrum of water uses in terms of quantity and quality as well as availability and demands for all uses and users.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Grenier, Christophe; Roux, Nicolas; Anbergen, Hauke; Collier, Nathaniel; Costard, Francois; Ferrry, Michel; Frampton, Andrew; Frederick, Jennifer; Holmen, Johan; Jost, Anne; Kokh, Samuel; Kurylyk, Barret; McKenzie, Jeffrey; Molson, John; Orgogozo, Laurent; Rivière, Agnès; Rühaak, Wolfram; Selroos, Jan-Olof; Therrien, René; Vidstrand, Patrik
2015-04-01
The impacts of climate change in boreal regions has received considerable attention recently due to the warming trends that have been experienced in recent decades and are expected to intensify in the future. Large portions of these regions, corresponding to permafrost areas, are covered by water bodies (lakes, rivers) that interact with the surrounding permafrost. For example, the thermal state of the surrounding soil influences the energy and water budget of the surface water bodies. Also, these water bodies generate taliks (unfrozen zones below) that disturb the thermal regimes of permafrost and may play a key role in the context of climate change. Recent field studies and modeling exercises indicate that a fully coupled 2D or 3D Thermo-Hydraulic (TH) approach is required to understand and model the past and future evolution of landscapes, rivers, lakes and associated groundwater systems in a changing climate. However, there is presently a paucity of 3D numerical studies of permafrost thaw and associated hydrological changes, and the lack of study can be partly attributed to the difficulty in verifying multi-dimensional results produced by numerical models. Numerical approaches can only be validated against analytical solutions for a purely thermic 1D equation with phase change (e.g. Neumann, Lunardini). When it comes to the coupled TH system (coupling two highly non-linear equations), the only possible approach is to compare the results from different codes to provided test cases and/or to have controlled experiments for validation. Such inter-code comparisons can propel discussions to try to improve code performances. A benchmark exercise was initialized in 2014 with a kick-off meeting in Paris in November. Participants from USA, Canada, Germany, Sweden and France convened, representing altogether 13 simulation codes. The benchmark exercises consist of several test cases inspired by existing literature (e.g. McKenzie et al., 2007) as well as new ones. They range from simpler, purely thermal cases (benchmark T1) to more complex, coupled 2D TH cases (benchmarks TH1, TH2, and TH3). Some experimental cases conducted in cold room complement the validation approach. A web site hosted by LSCE (Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement) is an interaction platform for the participants and hosts the test cases database at the following address: https://wiki.lsce.ipsl.fr/interfrost. The results of the first stage of the benchmark exercise will be presented. We will mainly focus on the inter-comparison of participant results for the coupled cases (TH1, TH2 & TH3). Further perspectives of the exercise will also be presented. Extensions to more complex physical conditions (e.g. unsaturated conditions and geometrical deformations) are contemplated. In addition, 1D vertical cases of interest to the Climate Modeling community will be proposed. Keywords: Permafrost; Numerical modeling; River-soil interaction; Arctic systems; soil freeze-thaw
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Statistical methods for the analysis of climate extremes
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Naveau, Philippe; Nogaj, Marta; Ammann, Caspar; Yiou, Pascal; Cooley, Daniel; Jomelli, Vincent
2005-08-01
Currently there is an increasing research activity in the area of climate extremes because they represent a key manifestation of non-linear systems and an enormous impact on economic and social human activities. Our understanding of the mean behavior of climate and its 'normal' variability has been improving significantly during the last decades. In comparison, climate extreme events have been hard to study and even harder to predict because they are, by definition, rare and obey different statistical laws than averages. In this context, the motivation for this paper is twofold. Firstly, we recall the basic principles of Extreme Value Theory that is used on a regular basis in finance and hydrology, but it still does not have the same success in climate studies. More precisely, the theoretical distributions of maxima and large peaks are recalled. The parameters of such distributions are estimated with the maximum likelihood estimation procedure that offers the flexibility to take into account explanatory variables in our analysis. Secondly, we detail three case-studies to show that this theory can provide a solid statistical foundation, specially when assessing the uncertainty associated with extreme events in a wide range of applications linked to the study of our climate. To cite this article: P. Naveau et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).
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A method for screening climate change-sensitive infectious diseases.
Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin
2015-01-14
Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change.
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A Method for Screening Climate Change-Sensitive Infectious Diseases
Wang, Yunjing; Rao, Yuhan; Wu, Xiaoxu; Zhao, Hainan; Chen, Jin
2015-01-01
Climate change is a significant and emerging threat to human health, especially where infectious diseases are involved. Because of the complex interactions between climate variables and infectious disease components (i.e., pathogen, host and transmission environment), systematically and quantitatively screening for infectious diseases that are sensitive to climate change is still a challenge. To address this challenge, we propose a new statistical indicator, Relative Sensitivity, to identify the difference between the sensitivity of the infectious disease to climate variables for two different climate statuses (i.e., historical climate and present climate) in non-exposure and exposure groups. The case study in Anhui Province, China has demonstrated the effectiveness of this Relative Sensitivity indicator. The application results indicate significant sensitivity of many epidemic infectious diseases to climate change in the form of changing climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation and absolute humidity. As novel evidence, this research shows that absolute humidity has a critical influence on many observed infectious diseases in Anhui Province, including dysentery, hand, foot and mouth disease, hepatitis A, hemorrhagic fever, typhoid fever, malaria, meningitis, influenza and schistosomiasis. Moreover, some infectious diseases are more sensitive to climate change in rural areas than in urban areas. This insight provides guidance for future health inputs that consider spatial variability in response to climate change. PMID:25594780
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Climate Change and Macro-Economic Cycles in Pre-Industrial Europe
Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D.; Lee, Harry F.; Li, Guodong
2014-01-01
Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales. PMID:24516601
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Demissie, Y. K.
2013-12-01
In recent years, biofuel has become an important renewable energy source with a potential to help mitigate climate change. However, agriculture productivity and its potential use for sustainable production of biofuel are strongly dependent on climate and water conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. For instant in 2012, the US has experienced the most severe drought that results in a 12% decrease in corn production - the main feedstock used for biofuel in US - indicating the vulnerability of biofuel development and policies to change in climate and associated extreme weather conditions. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have applied a SWAT watershed model which integrates future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development and simulates the associated impacts on watershed hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The study is applied to the Yakima River basin (YRB), which has higher biomass resources in Washington State and represents a region where forestry and agriculture intersect with considerable water shortage as well as spatial variations in annual precipitation. Unlike earlier studies, which commonly define biofuel and climate change scenarios independently, in this study the decision on alternative biofuel feedstock mixes and associated change in land use and management take into account the anticipated climate change. The resulted spatial and temporal distributions of water budget, nutrient loads, and sediment erosion is analyzed to evaluate the effectiveness of biofuel policies under constraints of climate change and water resources in the region.
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Climate change and macro-economic cycles in pre-industrial europe.
Pei, Qing; Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Li, Guodong
2014-01-01
Climate change has been proven to be the ultimate cause of social crisis in pre-industrial Europe at a large scale. However, detailed analyses on climate change and macro-economic cycles in the pre-industrial era remain lacking, especially within different temporal scales. Therefore, fine-grained, paleo-climate, and economic data were employed with statistical methods to quantitatively assess the relations between climate change and agrarian economy in Europe during AD 1500 to 1800. In the study, the Butterworth filter was adopted to filter the data series into a long-term trend (low-frequency) and short-term fluctuations (high-frequency). Granger Causality Analysis was conducted to scrutinize the associations between climate change and macro-economic cycle at different frequency bands. Based on quantitative results, climate change can only show significant effects on the macro-economic cycle within the long-term. In terms of the short-term effects, society can relieve the influences from climate variations by social adaptation methods and self-adjustment mechanism. On a large spatial scale, temperature holds higher importance for the European agrarian economy than precipitation. By examining the supply-demand mechanism in the grain market, population during the study period acted as the producer in the long term, whereas as the consumer in the short term. These findings merely reflect the general interactions between climate change and macro-economic cycles at the large spatial region with a long-term study period. The findings neither illustrate individual incidents that can temporarily distort the agrarian economy nor explain some specific cases. In the study, the scale thinking in the analysis is raised as an essential methodological issue for the first time to interpret the associations between climatic impact and macro-economy in the past agrarian society within different temporal scales.
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Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters
Jones, Miranda C.; Dye, Stephen R.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Pinnegar, John K.; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W. L.
2013-01-01
Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina). PMID:23349829
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Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.
Jones, Miranda C; Dye, Stephen R; Fernandes, Jose A; Frölicher, Thomas L; Pinnegar, John K; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W L
2013-01-01
Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini
2014-05-01
Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the implementation of the RRA methodology. The main output of the analysis are climate risk products produced with the DEcision support SYstem for COastal climate change impact assessment (DESYCO) and represented by GIS-based maps and statistics of hazard, exposure, physical and environmental vulnerability, risk and damage. These maps are useful to transfer information about climate change impacts to stakeholders and decision makers, to allow the classification and prioritization of areas that are likely to be affected by climate change impacts more severely than others in the same region, and therefore to support the identification of suitable areas for infrastructure, economic activities and human settlements toward the development of regional adaptation plans. The climate risk products and the results of North Adriatic case study will be here presented and discussed.
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Extreme climate, rather than population history, explains mid-facial morphology of Northern Asians.
Evteev, Andrej; Cardini, Andrea L; Morozova, Irina; O'Higgins, Paul
2014-03-01
Previous studies have examined mid-facial cold adaptation among either widely dispersed and genetically very diverse groups of humans isolated for tens of thousands of years, or among very closely related groups spread over climatically different regions. Here we present a study of one East Asian and seven North Asian populations in which we examine the evidence for convergent adaptations of the mid-face to a very cold climate. Our findings indicate that mid-facial morphology is strongly associated with climatic variables that contrast the temperate climate of East Asians and the very cold and dry climate of North Asians. This is also the case when either maxillary or nasal cavity measurements are considered alone. The association remains significant when mtDNA distances among populations are taken into account. The morphological contrasts between populations are consistent with physiological predictions and prior studies of mid-facial cold adaptation in more temperate regions, but among North Asians there appear to be some previously undescribed morphological features that might be considered as adaptive to extreme cold. To investigate this further, analyses of the seven North Asian populations alone suggest that mid-facial morphology remains strongly associated with climate, particularly winter precipitation, contrasting coastal Arctic and continental climates. However, the residual covariation among North Asian mid-facial morphology and climate when genetic distances are considered, is not significant. These findings point to modern adaptations to extreme climate that might be relevant to our understanding of the mid-facial morphology of fossil hominins that lived during glaciations. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
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Sabzevari, Azadeh Arbabi; Miri, Morteza; Raziei, Tayeb; Oroji, Hassan; Rahimi, Mojtaba
2018-03-14
The present study aims to evaluate the influence of climate conditions on tourism in the port of Chabahar, southeastern Iran, using the climate comfort indices (CIT, PMV, and TCI) and the field data relative to the tourist satisfaction. According to the computed TCI, the autumn-winter season (October-April) is climatically favorable for tourism in Chabahar, but it is ideal during January to March. Based on the computed PMV index, the studied region is in the range of climate comfort in most parts of the year. However, when the PMV thermal comfort limits (- 0.5 < PMV < 0.5) and the PPD limits (0 < PPD < 10) are considered, only the March and November are included in the thermal comfort range. The CIT index also indicates that all months of the year are acceptable for tourism that does not coincide with the reality of the region. However, by blending the PMV and the tourist's degree of satisfaction, a slight modification was made to the CIT index to better represent the reality of the region regarding the climate comfort. The modified CIT gave a different result, reflecting the importance of tourists' perceptions in defining the climate comfort rather than merely relying on the climate variables. The modified CIT also suggests November-March as a period with favorable to ideal climate condition for tourism in Chabahar which is a more realistic assessment of climate condition of the region as perceived by the tourists interviewed.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
none,
Case study of a DOE 2015 Housing Innovation Award winning affordable home in the hot-humid climate that got a HERS 56 without PV or HERS 26 with PV, with 4.5” SIP walls and 8.5” SIP roof; uninsulated slab; ductless minisplit heat pump 15.5 SEER, and tankless hot water.
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DOE ZERH Case Study: High Performance Homes, Chamberlain Court #75, Gettysburg, PA
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
none,
2015-09-01
Case study of a DOE 2015 Housing Innovation Award winning production home in the cold climate that got a HERS 37 without PV, or HERS 23 with PV, with R-24 SIP walls, Basement with R-10 under slab, and R-15 unfaced batt on walls, sealed attic with R-49 ocsf under roof deck; ground source heat pump COP 4.4.
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wallace, Belle
2008-01-01
The issues discussed in this article have arisen from 12 in-depth case studies of "successful" schools in England, which were carried out during the academic year 2006/2007. However the practices that have emerged from these case studies are universally applicable when one analyses the factors that enabled learners to develop…
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Field, C.B.; Barros, V.; Stocker, T.F.
2012-07-01
This Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) has been jointly coordinated by Working Groups I (WGI) and II (WGII) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The report focuses on the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events, the impacts of such events, and the strategies to manage the associated risks. This Special Report, in particular, contributes to frame the challenge of dealing with extreme weather and climate events as an issue in decision making under uncertainty, analyzing response in the context of risk management.more » The report consists of nine chapters, covering risk management; observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events; exposure and vulnerability to as well as losses resulting from such events; adaptation options from the local to the international scale; the role of sustainable development in modulating risks; and insights from specific case studies. (LN)« less
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Noise-induced transitions and shifts in a climate-vegetation feedback model.
Alexandrov, Dmitri V; Bashkirtseva, Irina A; Ryashko, Lev B
2018-04-01
Motivated by the extremely important role of the Earth's vegetation dynamics in climate changes, we study the stochastic variability of a simple climate-vegetation system. In the case of deterministic dynamics, the system has one stable equilibrium and limit cycle or two stable equilibria corresponding to two opposite (cold and warm) climate-vegetation states. These states are divided by a separatrix going across a point of unstable equilibrium. Some possible stochastic scenarios caused by different externally induced natural and anthropogenic processes inherit properties of deterministic behaviour and drastically change the system dynamics. We demonstrate that the system transitions across its separatrix occur with increasing noise intensity. The climate-vegetation system therewith fluctuates, transits and localizes in the vicinity of its attractor. We show that this phenomenon occurs within some critical range of noise intensities. A noise-induced shift into the range of smaller global average temperatures corresponding to substantial oscillations of the Earth's vegetation cover is revealed. Our analysis demonstrates that the climate-vegetation interactions essentially contribute to climate dynamics and should be taken into account in more precise and complex models of climate variability.
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Merello, Paloma; García-Diego, Fernando-Juan; Zarzo, Manuel
2014-08-01
Chemometrics has been applied successfully since the 1990s for the multivariate statistical control of industrial processes. A new area of interest for these tools is the microclimatic monitoring of cultural heritage. Sensors record climatic parameters over time and statistical data analysis is performed to obtain valuable information for preventive conservation. A case study of an open-air archaeological site is presented here. A set of 26 temperature and relative humidity data-loggers was installed in four rooms of Ariadne's house (Pompeii). If climatic values are recorded versus time at different positions, the resulting data structure is equivalent to records of physical parameters registered at several points of a continuous chemical process. However, there is an important difference in this case: continuous processes are controlled to reach a steady state, whilst open-air sites undergo tremendous fluctuations. Although data from continuous processes are usually column-centred prior to applying principal components analysis, it turned out that another pre-treatment (row-centred data) was more convenient for the interpretation of components and to identify abnormal patterns. The detection of typical trajectories was more straightforward by dividing the whole monitored period into several sub-periods, because the marked climatic fluctuations throughout the year affect the correlation structures. The proposed statistical methodology is of interest for the microclimatic monitoring of cultural heritage, particularly in the case of open-air or semi-confined archaeological sites. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Stilianakis, Nikolaos I.; Syrris, Vasileios; Petroliagkis, Thomas; Pärt, Peeter; Gewehr, Sandra; Kalaitzopoulou, Stella; Mourelatos, Spiros; Baka, Agoritsa; Pervanidou, Danai; Vontas, John; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos
2016-01-01
Climate can affect the geographic and seasonal patterns of vector-borne disease incidence such as West Nile Virus (WNV) infections. We explore the association between climatic factors and the occurrence of West Nile fever (WNF) or West Nile neuro-invasive disease (WNND) in humans in Northern Greece over the years 2010–2014. Time series over a period of 30 years (1979–2008) of climatic data of air temperature, relative humidity, soil temperature, volumetric soil water content, wind speed, and precipitation representing average climate were obtained utilising the ECMWF’s (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) system allowing for a homogeneous set of data in time and space. We analysed data of reported human cases of WNF/WNND and Culex mosquitoes in Northern Greece. Quantitative assessment resulted in identifying associations between the above climatic variables and reported human cases of WNF/WNND. A substantial fraction of the cases was linked to the upper percentiles of the distribution of air and soil temperature for the period 1979–2008 and the lower percentiles of relative humidity and soil water content. A statistically relevant relationship between the mean weekly value climatic anomalies of wind speed (negative association), relative humidity (negative association) and air temperature (positive association) over 30 years, and reported human cases of WNF/WNND during the period 2010–2014 could be shown. A negative association between the presence of WNV infected Culex mosquitoes and wind speed could be identified. The statistically significant associations could also be confirmed for the week the WNF/WNND human cases appear and when a time lag of up to three weeks was considered. Similar statistically significant associations were identified with the weekly anomalies of the maximum and minimum values of the above climatic factors. Utilising the ERA-Interim re-analysis methodology it could be shown that besides air temperature, climatic factors such as soil temperature, relative humidity, soil water content and wind speed may affect the epidemiology of WNV. PMID:27631082
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Precipitation Based Malaria Patterns in the Amazon -- Will Deforestation Alter Risk?
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Olson, S. H.; Durieux, L.; Elguero, E.; Foley, J.; Gagnon, R.; Guegan, J.; Patz, J.
2007-12-01
The World Health Organization, estimates that forty-two percent of malaria cases are "associated with policies and practices regarding land use, deforestation, water resource management, settlement siting and modified house design". This estimate was drawn from expert opinion and studies performed at local scales, but little research has investigated the cumulative impacts of land use and land cover changes occurring in the Amazon Basin on malaria. Much less is understood about the impact of changing land use and subsequent precipitation regimes on malaria risk. To understand how land use practices may alter malaria patterns in the Basin we present an analysis of municipio (n=755) malaria case data and monthly precipitation patterns between 1996 and 1999. Climate data originated from the CRU TS 2.1 half-degree grid resolution climate data set. We present a hierarchical (random coefficients) log-linear Poisson model relating malaria incidence to precipitation for both municipos and states. At the Basin scale precipitation and cases show strong relationships. Precipitation and cases are asynchronous across the period of observation, but detailed inspection of states and individual municipios reveal geographic dependencies of precipitation and malaria incidence. Future research will link the patterns of precipitation and malaria to anticipated changes in climate from deforestation in the Basin.
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The Climate Services Partnership (CSP): Working Together to Improve Climate Services Worldwide
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zebiak, S.; Brasseur, G.; Members of the CSP Coordinating Group
2012-04-01
Throughout the world, climate services are required to address urgent needs for climate-informed decision-making, policy and planning. These needs were explored in detail at the first International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS), held in New York in October 2011. After lengthy discussions of needs and capabilities, the conference culminated in the creation of the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). The CSP is an informal interdisciplinary network of climate information users, providers, donors and researchers interested in improving the provision and development of climate services worldwide. Members of the Climate Services Partnership work together to share knowledge, accelerate learning, develop new capacities, and establish good practices. These collaborative efforts will inform and support the evolution and implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services. The Climate Services Partnership focuses its efforts on three levels. These include: 1. encouraging and sustaining connections between climate information providers, users, donors, and researchers 2. gathering, synthesizing and disseminating current knowledge on climate services by way of an online knowledge management platform 3. generating new knowledge on critical topics in climate service development and provision, through the creation of focused working groups on specific topics To date, the Climate Services Partnership has made progress on all three fronts. Connections have been fostered through outreach at major international conferences and professional societies. The CSP also maintains a website and a monthly newsletter, which serves as a resource for those interested in climate services. The second International Conference on Climate Services (ICCS2) will be held in Berlin in September. The CSP has also created a knowledge capture system that gathers and disseminates a wide range of information related to the development and provision of climate services. This includes an online-searchable database that allows users to see what climate services activities are underway in what locations, to gather and analyze information. As part of the knowledge capture system, more than 10 CSP members are currently developing case studies to describe specific climate services activities; in a few cases, this involves in-depth evaluations of the service in question. Finally, the Economics Working Group of the Climate Services Partnership is analyzing previous methods to economically value climate services in hopes of generating knew knowledge regarding the methods are best suited to assessing the benefits associated with various climate services. Other groups are working to develop guidance materials for the development and use of climate information to support decision and policy-making. The Climate Services Partnership is an open, informal network that builds on activities that are already underway and works to create synergies to improve the provision and development for climate services. Its members currently number more than 50 organizations; it seeks new participants and new initiatives.
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Climatic droplet keratopathy, exfoliation syndrome, and cataract.
Resnikoff, S; Filliard, G; Dell'Aquila, B
1991-01-01
During a countrywide survey we assessed the prevalence of climatic droplet keratopathy (CDK) in a randomised sample of 2446 subjects representative of the population of the Republic of Djibouti. The investigation of the relationship between CDK and two diseases considered to be related to exposure to ultra-violet light--namely, exfoliation syndrome and cataract--was planned as a case control study. In the rural area prevalence of CDK was five times higher than in the urban one (2.8% vs 0.5%) and varied according to districts. The highest rates were observed where the inhabitants' activities were related to the sea. The case control study revealed that the opacification of the lens was about three times commoner in patients with CDK than in patients without CDK (p = 0.03) and that the exfoliation syndrome was about six times commoner in patients with CDK than in controls of similar age, sex, climatic conditions, and lens status (p = 0.02). Moreover, we noticed that the sequelae of corneal perforations were about 30 times commoner in patients with CDK than in controls of similar age (p less than 0.00001). PMID:1768663
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Climate Change Education for Mitigation and Adaptation
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Anderson, Allison
2012-01-01
This article makes the case for the education sector an untapped opportunity to combat climate change. It sets forth a definition of Climate Change Education for Sustainable Development that is comprehensive and multidisciplinary and asserts that it must not only include relevant content knowledge on climate change, environmental and social…
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Simulation of Optimal Decision-Making Under the Impacts of Climate Change.
Møller, Lea Ravnkilde; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl
2017-07-01
Climate change causes transformations to the conditions of existing agricultural practices appointing farmers to continuously evaluate their agricultural strategies, e.g., towards optimising revenue. In this light, this paper presents a framework for applying Bayesian updating to simulate decision-making, reaction patterns and updating of beliefs among farmers in a developing country, when faced with the complexity of adapting agricultural systems to climate change. We apply the approach to a case study from Ghana, where farmers seek to decide on the most profitable of three agricultural systems (dryland crops, irrigated crops and livestock) by a continuous updating of beliefs relative to realised trajectories of climate (change), represented by projections of temperature and precipitation. The climate data is based on combinations of output from three global/regional climate model combinations and two future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) representing moderate and unsubstantial greenhouse gas reduction policies, respectively. The results indicate that the climate scenario (input) holds a significant influence on the development of beliefs, net revenues and thereby optimal farming practices. Further, despite uncertainties in the underlying net revenue functions, the study shows that when the beliefs of the farmer (decision-maker) opposes the development of the realised climate, the Bayesian methodology allows for simulating an adjustment of such beliefs, when improved information becomes available. The framework can, therefore, help facilitating the optimal choice between agricultural systems considering the influence of climate change.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Liu, W.; Ning, T.; Shen, H.; Li, Z.
2017-12-01
Vegetation, climate seasonality and topography are the main impact factors controlling the water and heat balance over a catchment, and they are usually empirically formulated into the controlling parameter in Budyko model. However, their interactions on different time scales have not been fully addressed. Taking 30 catchments in China's Loess Plateau as an example, on annual scale, vegetation coverage was found poorly correlated with climate seasonality index; therefore, they could be both parameterized into the Budyko model. On the long-term scale, vegetation coverage tended to have close relationships with topographic conditions and climate seasonality, which was confirmed by the multi-collinearity problems; in that sense, vegetation information could fit the controlling parameter exclusively. Identifying the dominant controlling factors over different time scales, this study simplified the empirical parameterization of the Budyko formula. Though the above relationships further investigation over the other regions/catchments.
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Grundstein, Andrew J; Hosokawa, Yuri; Casa, Douglas J
2018-01-01
Weather-based activity modification in athletics is an important way to minimize heat illnesses. However, many commonly used heat-safety guidelines include a uniform set of heat-stress thresholds that do not account for geographic differences in acclimatization. To determine if heat-related fatalities among American football players occurred on days with unusually stressful weather conditions based on the local climate and to assess the need for regional heat-safety guidelines. Cross-sectional study. Data from incidents of fatal exertional heat stroke (EHS) in American football players were obtained from the National Center for Catastrophic Sport Injury Research and the Korey Stringer Institute. Sixty-one American football players at all levels of competition with fatal EHSs from 1980 to 2014. We used the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) and a z-score WBGT standardized to local climate conditions from 1991 to 2010 to assess the absolute and relative magnitudes of heat stress, respectively. We observed a poleward decrease in exposure WBGTs during fatal EHSs. In milder climates, 80% of cases occurred at above-average WBGTs, and 50% occurred at WBGTs greater than 1 standard deviation from the long-term mean; however, in hotter climates, half of the cases occurred at near average or below average WBGTs. The combination of lower exposure WBGTs and frequent extreme climatic values in milder climates during fatal EHSs indicates the need for regional activity-modification guidelines with lower, climatically appropriate weather-based thresholds. Established activity-modification guidelines, such as those from the American College of Sports Medicine, work well in the hotter climates, such as the southern United States, where hot and humid weather conditions are common.
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Economic costs of extratropical storms under climate change: An application of FUND
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Narita, D.; Tol, R.; Anthoff, D.
2009-12-01
Extratropical cyclones have attracted some attention in climate policy circles as a possible significant damage factor of climate change. This study conducts an assessment of economic impacts of increased storm activities under climate change with the integrated assessment model FUND 3.5. FUND is a model that calculates damages of climate change for 16 regions by making use of exogenous scenarios of socioeconomic variables (for details of our estimation approach, see our working paper whose URL is indicated below). Our estimation shows that in the base case, the direct economic damage of enhanced storms due to climate change amounts to $2.8 billion globally (approximately 38% of the total economic loss of storms at present) at the year 2100, while the ratio to the world GDP is 0.0009%. The regional results (Figure 1) indicate that the economic effect of extratropical storms with climate change would have relatively minor importance for the US (USA): The enhanced extratropical storm damage (less than 0.001% of GDP for the base case) is one order of magnitude lower than the tropical cyclone damage (roughly 0.01% GDP) calculated by the same version of FUND. In the regions without strong tropical cyclone influence, such as Western Europe (WEU) and Australia and New Zealand (ANZ), the extratropical storms might have some more significance as a possible damage factor of climate change. Especially for the latter, the direct economic damage could amount to more than 0.006% of GDP. Still, the impact is small relative to the income growth expected in these regions. Figure 1. Increased direct economic loss at the year 2100 for selected regions (results are shown for the three different baselines: the years 1986-2005, 1976-2005, and 1996-2005). US - USA; Canada - CAN; Western Europe - WEU; Australia and New Zealand - ANZ.
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Energy Switching Threshold for Climatic Benefits
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zhang, X.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.
2013-12-01
Climate change is one of the great challenges facing humanity currently and in the future. Its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems (1). A transition from the global system of high Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission electricity generation to low GHG emission energy technologies is required to mitigate climate change (2). Natural gas is increasingly seen as a choice for transitions to renewable sources. However, recent researches in energy and climate puzzled about the climate implications of relying more energy on natural gas. On one hand, a shift to natural gas is promoted as climate mitigation because it has lower carbon per unit energy than coal (3). On the other hand, the effect of switching to natural gas on nuclear-power and other renewable energies development may offset benefits from fuel-switching (4). Cheap natural gas is causing both coal plants and nuclear plants to close in the US. The objective of this study is to measure and evaluate the threshold of energy switching for climatic benefits. We hypothesized that the threshold ratio of energy switching for climatic benefits is related to GHGs emission factors of energy technologies, but the relation is not linear. A model was developed to study the fuel switching threshold for greenhouse gas emission reduction, and transition from coal and nuclear electricity generation to natural gas electricity generation was analyzed as a case study. The results showed that: (i) the threshold ratio of multi-energy switching for climatic benefits changes with GHGs emission factors of energy technologies. (ii)The mathematical relation between the threshold ratio of energy switching and GHGs emission factors of energies is a curved surface function. (iii) The analysis of energy switching threshold for climatic benefits can be used for energy and climate policy decision support.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ferrarini, Alessandro; Alsafran, Mohammed H. S. A.; Dai, Junhu; Alatalo, Juha M.
2018-04-01
Empirical works to assist in choosing climatically relevant variables in the attempt to predict climate change impacts on plant species are limited. Further uncertainties arise in choice of an appropriate niche model. In this study we devised and tested a sharp methodological framework, based on stringent variable ranking and filtering and flexible model selection, to minimize uncertainty in both niche modelling and successive projection of plant species distributions. We used our approach to develop an accurate, parsimonious model of Silene acaulis (L.) presence/absence on the British Isles and to project its presence/absence under climate change. The approach suggests the importance of (a) defining a reduced set of climate variables, actually relevant to species presence/absence, from an extensive list of climate predictors, and (b) considering climate extremes instead of, or together with, climate averages in projections of plant species presence/absence under future climate scenarios. Our methodological approach reduced the number of relevant climate predictors by 95.23% (from 84 to only 4), while simultaneously achieving high cross-validated accuracy (97.84%) confirming enhanced model performance. Projections produced under different climate scenarios suggest that S. acaulis will likely face climate-driven fast decline in suitable areas on the British Isles, and that upward and northward shifts to occupy new climatically suitable areas are improbable in the future. Our results also imply that conservation measures for S. acaulis based upon assisted colonization are unlikely to succeed on the British Isles due to the absence of climatically suitable habitat, so different conservation actions (seed banks and/or botanical gardens) are needed.
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The CLUVA project: Climate-change scenarios and their impact on urban areas in Africa
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Di Ruocco, Angela; Weets, Guy; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Lindley, Sarah; Pauleit, Stephan; Vahed, Anwar; Schiano, Pasquale; Kabisch, Sigrun; Vedeld, Trond; Coly, Adrien; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew
2013-04-01
CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its main objective is the estimate of the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The mission of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to assess risks cascading from climate-changes. It downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; vulnerability of in-town ecosystems and urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary quantitative, probabilistic, modelling is applied. CLUVA brings together climate experts, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists with their African counterparts in an integrated research effort focusing on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. The CLUVA approach was set-up in the first year of the project and developed as follows: an ensemble of eight global projections of climate changes is produced for east and west Africa until 2050 considering the new IPCC (International Panel on Climate Changes; http://www.ipcc.ch/) scenarios. These are then downscaled to urban level, where territorial modeling is required to compute hazard effects on the vulnerable physical system (urban ecosystems, informal settlements, lifelines such as transportation and sewer networks) as well as on the social context, in defined time frames, and risk analysis is then employed to assess expected consequences. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks is performed. With the aid of the African partners, the developed approach is currently being applied to selected African case studies: Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania, Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso, St. Louis - Senegal. The poster will illustrate the CLUVA's framework to assess climate-change-related risks at an urban scale in Africa, and will report on the progresses of selected case studies to demonstrate feasibility of a multi-scale and multi-risk quantitative approach for risk management.
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An inverse approach to perturb historical rainfall data for scenario-neutral climate impact studies
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Guo, Danlu; Westra, Seth; Maier, Holger R.
2018-01-01
Scenario-neutral approaches are being used increasingly for climate impact assessments, as they allow water resource system performance to be evaluated independently of climate change projections. An important element of these approaches is the generation of perturbed series of hydrometeorological variables that form the inputs to hydrologic and water resource assessment models, with most scenario-neutral studies to-date considering only shifts in the average and a limited number of other statistics of each climate variable. In this study, a stochastic generation approach is used to perturb not only the average of the relevant hydrometeorological variables, but also attributes such as the intermittency and extremes. An optimization-based inverse approach is developed to obtain hydrometeorological time series with uniform coverage across the possible ranges of rainfall attributes (referred to as the 'exposure space'). The approach is demonstrated on a widely used rainfall generator, WGEN, for a case study at Adelaide, Australia, and is shown to be capable of producing evenly-distributed samples over the exposure space. The inverse approach expands the applicability of the scenario-neutral approach in evaluating a water resource system's sensitivity to a wider range of plausible climate change scenarios.
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Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil
2016-02-01
We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Noah’s Ark Conservation Will Not Preserve Threatened Ecological Communities under Climate Change
Harris, Rebecca Mary Bernadette; Carter, Oberon; Gilfedder, Louise; Porfirio, Luciana Laura; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel Lee
2015-01-01
Background Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community. Methods We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities, and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models, under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. Results All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered, but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century, and very little of that area is currently in good condition. Conclusions As the climate becomes less suitable, a gradual change in the species composition, structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity, structure and function, rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale, and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation, weed invasion and stress from other land uses, while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and composition of Lowland Grassland communities is unlikely to be a viable management option in the long term. PMID:25881302
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Noah's Ark conservation will not preserve threatened ecological communities under climate change.
Harris, Rebecca Mary Bernadette; Carter, Oberon; Gilfedder, Louise; Porfirio, Luciana Laura; Lee, Greg; Bindoff, Nathaniel Lee
2015-01-01
Effective conservation of threatened ecological communities requires knowledge of where climatically suitable habitat is likely to persist into the future. We use the critically endangered Lowland Grassland community of Tasmania, Australia as a case study to identify options for management in cases where future climatic conditions become unsuitable for the current threatened community. We model current and future climatic suitability for the Lowland Themeda and the Lowland Poa Grassland communities, which make up the listed ecological community. We also model climatic suitability for the structurally dominant grass species of these communities, and for closely related grassland and woodland communities. We use a dynamically downscaled regional climate model derived from six CMIP3 global climate models, under the A2 SRES emissions scenario. All model projections showed a large reduction in climatically suitable area by mid-century. Outcomes are slightly better if closely related grassy communities are considered, but the extent of suitable area is still substantially reduced. Only small areas within the current distribution are projected to remain climatically suitable by the end of the century, and very little of that area is currently in good condition. As the climate becomes less suitable, a gradual change in the species composition, structure and habitat quality of the grassland communities is likely. Conservation management will need to focus on maintaining diversity, structure and function, rather than attempting to preserve current species composition. Options for achieving this include managing related grassland types to maintain grassland species at the landscape-scale, and maximising the resilience of grasslands by reducing further fragmentation, weed invasion and stress from other land uses, while accepting that change is inevitable. Attempting to maintain the status quo by conserving the current structure and composition of Lowland Grassland communities is unlikely to be a viable management option in the long term.
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The influence of climate change on Tanzania's hydropower sustainability
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Sperna Weiland, Frederiek; Boehlert, Brent; Meijer, Karen; Schellekens, Jaap; Magnell, Jan-Petter; Helbrink, Jakob; Kassana, Leonard; Liden, Rikard
2015-04-01
Economic costs induced by current climate variability are large for Tanzania and may further increase due to future climate change. The Tanzanian National Climate Change Strategy addressed the need for stabilization of hydropower generation and strengthening of water resources management. Increased hydropower generation can contribute to sustainable use of energy resources and stabilization of the national electricity grid. To support Tanzania the World Bank financed this study in which the impact of climate change on the water resources and related hydropower generation capacity of Tanzania is assessed. To this end an ensemble of 78 GCM projections from both the CMIP3 and CMIP5 datasets was bias-corrected and down-scaled to 0.5 degrees resolution following the BCSD technique using the Princeton Global Meteorological Forcing Dataset as a reference. To quantify the hydrological impacts of climate change by 2035 the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB was set-up for Tanzania at a resolution of 3 minutes and run with all 78 GCM datasets. From the full set of projections a probable (median) and worst case scenario (95th percentile) were selected based upon (1) the country average Climate Moisture Index and (2) discharge statistics of relevance to hydropower generation. Although precipitation from the Princeton dataset shows deviations from local station measurements and the global hydrological model does not perfectly reproduce local scale hydrographs, the main discharge characteristics and precipitation patterns are represented well. The modeled natural river flows were adjusted for water demand and irrigation within the water resources model RIBASIM (both historical values and future scenarios). Potential hydropower capacity was assessed with the power market simulation model PoMo-C that considers both reservoir inflows obtained from RIBASIM and overall electricity generation costs. Results of the study show that climate change is unlikely to negatively affect the average potential of future hydropower production; it will likely make hydropower more profitable. Yet, the uncertainty in climate change projections remains large and risks are significant, adaptation strategies should ideally consider a worst case scenario to ensure robust power generation. Overall a diversified power generation portfolio, anchored in hydropower and supported by other renewables and fossil fuel-based energy sources, is the best solution for Tanzania
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Zizinga, A.
2017-12-01
Watershed Adaptation Measures to Climate Change Impacts: A case of Kiha Watershed in Albertine GrabenAlex Zizinga1, Moses Tenywa2, Majaliwa Jackson Gilbert1, 1Makerere University, Department of Environmental Sciences, O Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda 1Makerere University, Department of Agricultural Production, P.O Box 7062, Kampala, Uganda Corresponding author: azizinga@caes.mak.ac.ug AbstractThe most pressing issues local communities in Uganda are facing result from land-use and land cover changes exacerbated by climate change impacts. A key issue is the documentation of land-cover changes visible with the ongoing clearance of remaining forests, bush-lands and wetlands for expanding farmland for sugarcane production, producing charcoal and collecting firewood for local distilleries using imported molasses. Decision-makers, resource managers, farmers and practitioners must build their capacity for adaptive measures. Here we present the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrological processes in the River Kiha Watershed, located in Western Uganda, Lake Albert Water Management Zone, by using social learning techniques incorporating water users, local stakeholders and researchers. The research team examined different farming and economic activities within the watershed to assess their impacts on catchment water resources, namely on water quality and discharge of river Kiha. We present the impacts of locally induced climate change, which are already manifested in increasing seasonal variability of rainfall. The study aims at answering questions posed by local communities and stakeholders about climate change and its effects on livelihood and key resources, specifically water and soils within the Kiha watershed. Key words: Climate change impacts, Social Learning and Watershed Management
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Yan Sun; Matthew F. Bekker; R. Justin DeRose; Roger Kjelgren; S. -Y. Simon Wang
2017-01-01
Dendroclimatic research has long assumed a linear relationship between tree-ring increment and climate variables. However, ring width frequently underestimates extremely wet years, a phenomenon we refer to as âwet biasâ. In this paper, we present statistical evidence for wet bias that is obscured by the assumption of linearity. To improve tree-ring-climate modeling, we...
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Blowers, Paul; Lownsbury, James M
2010-03-01
The U.S. is strongly considering regulating hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) due to their global climate change forcing effects. A drop-in replacement hydrofluoroether has been evaluated using a gate-to-grave life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions for the trade-offs between direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent emissions compared to a current HFC and a historically used refrigerant. The results indicate current regulations being considered may increase global climate change.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory
Case study of a DOE 2016 Housing Innovation Award winning production home in the mixed-dry climate that met the DOE Zero Energy Ready Home criteria and achieved a HERS 47 without PV or HERS -2 with PV.
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Reyes-García, Victoria; Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Guèze, Maximilien; Garcés, Ariadna; Mallo, Miguel; Vila-Gómez, Margarita; Vilaseca, Marina
2016-01-01
Local knowledge has been proposed as a place-based tool to ground-truth climate models and to narrow their geographic sensitivity. To assess the potential role of local knowledge in our quest to understand better climate change and its impacts, we first need to critically review the strengths and weaknesses of local knowledge of climate change and the potential complementarity with scientific knowledge. With this aim, we conducted a systematic, quantitative meta-analysis of published peer-reviewed documents reporting local indicators of climate change (including both local observations of climate change and observed impacts on the biophysical and the social systems). Overall, primary data on the topic are not abundant, the methodological development is incipient, and the geographical extent is unbalanced. On the 98 case studies documented, we recorded the mention of 746 local indicators of climate change, mostly corresponding to local observations of climate change (40%), but also to observed impacts on the physical (23%), the biological (19%), and the socioeconomic (18%) systems. Our results suggest that, even if local observations of climate change are the most frequently reported type of change, the rich and fine-grained knowledge in relation to impacts on biophysical systems could provide more original contributions to our understanding of climate change at local scale. PMID:27642368
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Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji
Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn
2014-01-01
Background Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes. PMID:24836442
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Dhimal, Meghnath; Ahrens, Bodo; Kuch, Ulrich
2015-01-01
Background Despite its largely mountainous terrain for which this Himalayan country is a popular tourist destination, Nepal is now endemic for five major vector-borne diseases (VBDs), namely malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Japanese encephalitis, visceral leishmaniasis and dengue fever. There is increasing evidence about the impacts of climate change on VBDs especially in tropical highlands and temperate regions. Our aim is to explore whether the observed spatiotemporal distributions of VBDs in Nepal can be related to climate change. Methodology A systematic literature search was performed and summarized information on climate change and the spatiotemporal distribution of VBDs in Nepal from the published literature until December2014 following providing items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. Principal Findings We found 12 studies that analysed the trend of climatic data and are relevant for the study of VBDs, 38 studies that dealt with the spatial and temporal distribution of disease vectors and disease transmission. Among 38 studies, only eight studies assessed the association of VBDs with climatic variables. Our review highlights a pronounced warming in the mountains and an expansion of autochthonous cases of VBDs to non-endemic areas including mountain regions (i.e., at least 2,000 m above sea level). Furthermore, significant relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors are found in short-term studies. Conclusion Taking into account the weak health care systems and difficult geographic terrain of Nepal, increasing trade and movements of people, a lack of vector control interventions, observed relationships between climatic variables and VBDs and their vectors and the establishment of relevant disease vectors already at least 2,000 m above sea level, we conclude that climate change can intensify the risk of VBD epidemics in the mountain regions of Nepal if other non-climatic drivers of VBDs remain constant. PMID:26086887
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Liang, Song; Kracalik, Ian T.; Morris, Lillian; Blackburn, Jason K.; Mbam, Leonard M.; Ba Pouth, Simon Franky Baonga; Teboh, Andrew; Yang, Yang; Arabi, Mouhaman; Sugimoto, Jonathan D.; Morris, John Glenn
2016-01-01
Introduction Recurrent cholera outbreaks have been reported in Cameroon since 1971. However, case fatality ratios remain high, and we do not have an optimal understanding of the epidemiology of the disease, due in part to the diversity of Cameroon’s climate subzones and a lack of comprehensive data at the health district level. Methods/Findings A unique health district level dataset of reported cholera case numbers and related deaths from 2000–2012, obtained from the Ministry of Public Health of Cameroon and World Health Organization (WHO) country office, served as the basis for the analysis. During this time period, 43,474 cholera cases were reported: 1748 were fatal (mean annual case fatality ratio of 7.9%), with an attack rate of 17.9 reported cases per 100,000 inhabitants per year. Outbreaks occurred in three waves during the 13-year time period, with the highest case fatality ratios at the beginning of each wave. Seasonal patterns of illness differed strikingly between climate subzones (Sudano-Sahelian, Tropical Humid, Guinea Equatorial, and Equatorial Monsoon). In the northern Sudano-Sahelian subzone, highest number of cases tended to occur during the rainy season (July-September). The southern Equatorial Monsoon subzone reported cases year-round, with the lowest numbers during peak rainfall (July-September). A spatial clustering analysis identified multiple clusters of high incidence health districts during 2010 and 2011, which were the 2 years with the highest annual attack rates. A spatiotemporal autoregressive Poisson regression model fit to the 2010–2011 data identified significant associations between the risk of transmission and several factors, including the presence of major waterbody or highway, as well as the average daily maximum temperature and the precipitation levels over the preceding two weeks. The direction and/or magnitude of these associations differed between climate subzones, which, in turn, differed from national estimates that ignored subzones differences in climate variables. Conclusions/Significance The epidemiology of cholera in Cameroon differs substantially between climate subzones. Development of an optimal comprehensive country-wide control strategy for cholera requires an understanding of the impact of the natural and built environment on transmission patterns at the local level, particularly in the setting of ongoing climate change. PMID:27855171
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CCDST: A free Canadian climate data scraping tool
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bonifacio, Charmaine; Barchyn, Thomas E.; Hugenholtz, Chris H.; Kienzle, Stefan W.
2015-02-01
In this paper we present a new software tool that automatically fetches, downloads and consolidates climate data from a Web database where the data are contained on multiple Web pages. The tool is called the Canadian Climate Data Scraping Tool (CCDST) and was developed to enhance access and simplify analysis of climate data from Canada's National Climate Data and Information Archive (NCDIA). The CCDST deconstructs a URL for a particular climate station in the NCDIA and then iteratively modifies the date parameters to download large volumes of data, remove individual file headers, and merge data files into one output file. This automated sequence enhances access to climate data by substantially reducing the time needed to manually download data from multiple Web pages. To this end, we present a case study of the temporal dynamics of blowing snow events that resulted in ~3.1 weeks time savings. Without the CCDST, the time involved in manually downloading climate data limits access and restrains researchers and students from exploring climate trends. The tool is coded as a Microsoft Excel macro and is available to researchers and students for free. The main concept and structure of the tool can be modified for other Web databases hosting geophysical data.
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The Role of Health in Climate Litigation
Simmens, Samuel J.; Glicksman, Robert; Paddock, LeRoy; Kim, Daniel; Whited, Brittany
2018-01-01
Objectives. To examine how the courts, which play a critical role in shaping public policy, consider public health in climate change and coal-fired power plant lawsuits. Methods. We coded US local, state, and federal court decisions relating to climate change and coal-fired power plants from 1990 to 2016 (n = 873) and qualitatively investigated 139 cases in which litigants raised issues concerning the health impacts of climate change. We also conducted 78 interviews with key litigants, advocates, industry representatives, advising scientists, and legal experts. Results. Health has been a critical consideration in key climate lawsuits, but in a minority of cases. Litigants have presented health arguments most frequently and effectively in terms of airborne exposures. Health impacts have typically been used to gain standing and argue that the evidence for government actions is insufficient. Conclusions. The courts represent a pivotal branch of government in shaping climate policy. Increasing inclusion of health concerns in emergent areas of litigation could help drive more effective climate policymaking. PMID:29698089
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Marx, Werner; Haunschild, Robin; French, Bernie; Bornmann, Lutz
2017-01-01
The Keeling curve has become a chemical landmark, whereas the papers by Charles David Keeling about the underlying carbon dioxide measurements are not cited as often as can be expected against the backdrop of his final approval. In this bibliometric study, we analyze Keeling's papers as a case study for under-citedness of climate change publications. Three possible reasons for the under-citedness of Keeling's papers are discussed: (1) The discourse on global cooling at the starting time of Keeling's measurement program, (2) the underestimation of what is often seen as "routine science", and (3) the amount of implicit/informal citations at the expense of explicit/formal (reference-based) citations. Those reasons may have contributed more or less to the slow reception and the under-citedness of Keeling's seminal works.
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Participatory Games: Experiential learning to bridge disciplines
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Coughlan, E.; Suarez, P.; Mendler de Suarez, J.; Bachofen, C.
2014-12-01
While the benefits of multi-disciplinary education have been extolled, there is more to success than producing students who are able to articulate the theorems of all pertinent disciplines. Here, we will describe case studies in which participatory scenario exercises and games can make the difference between memorizing information from an "outside" discipline, and actually internalizing the priorities and complications of the issue from an alien perspective. Case studies include teaching Red Cross community-based volunteers the Probability Distribution Function of seasonal rainfall forecasts, as well as requiring students of Columbia University's Master's Program in Climate and Society to study both natural and social aspects of climate. Games create a model system of the world, in which players assume a role and make decisions with consequences, facing complex feedback loops. Taking such roles catalyzes "AHA" moments that effectively bring home the intricacies of disciplinary paradigms outside of one's own.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
Strickland, R.M.; Grosse, D.J.; Stubin, A.I.
1985-12-01
Four northeast Pacific region case study species were studied to determine individual fishery responses to climate change. These fishes (Alaska pollock, Theragra chalcogramma; Pacific herring, Clupea harengus pallasi; pink shrimp, Pandalus borealis; and yellowfin sole, Limanda aspera) represent a spectrum of habitats and life cycles among commercially important species, and the northeast Pacific (including the eastern Bering Sea) is relatively well-studied and representative of subpolar continental shelf areas that also are important in the North Atlantic. In addition to the general effects of climate, these fisheries have specific climate-related environmental sensitivities: (a) pollock sensitivity to ice extent, cannibalism, and birdmore » and mammal predation in the Bering Sea, and to coastal currents in the Gulf of Alaska; (b) sensitivity of herring to waves, dessication, and probably currents in the immediate vicinity of discrete spawning beaches along the British Columbia coast; (c) the relative insensitivity of bottom-dwelling shrimp to temperature changes; and (d) the probable sensitivity of yellowfin sole to ice extent and to associated changes in food supply caused by alterations in plankton species composition. It is difficult to extrapolate from the results of the present case studies to other fisheries. These results are particularly inapplicable to other major categories of fisheries, including open-ocean, upwelling, and tropical and subtropical shelf fisheries. Such fisheries should be the focus of additional case studies. Possible temperature effects on the incidence of disease and parasitism in fish also should be investigated.« less
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Glaciological reconstruction of Holocene ice margins in northwestern Greenland
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Birkel, S. D.; Osterberg, E. C.; Kelly, M. A.; Axford, Y.
2014-12-01
The past few decades of climate warming have brought overall margin retreat to the Greenland Ice Sheet. In order to place recent and projected changes in context, we are undertaking a collaborative field-modeling study that aims to reconstruct the Holocene history of ice-margin fluctuation near Thule (~76.5°N, 68.7°W), and also along the North Ice Cap (NIC) in the Nunatarssuaq region (~76.7°N, 67.4°W). Fieldwork reported by Kelly et al. (2013) reveals that ice in the study areas was less extensive than at present ca. 4700 (GIS) and ca. 880 (NIC) cal. years BP, presumably in response to a warmer climate. We are now exploring Holocene ice-climate coupling using the University of Maine Ice Sheet Model (UMISM). Our approach is to first test what imposed climate anomalies can afford steady state ice margins in accord with field data. A second test encompasses transient simulation of the Holocene, with climate boundary conditions supplied by existing paleo runs of the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4), and a climate forcing signal derived from Greenland ice cores. In both cases, the full ice sheet is simulated at 10 km resolution with nested domains at 0.5 km for the study areas. UMISM experiments are underway, and results will be reported at the meeting.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bao, Rui; Sheng, Xuefen; Teng, Henry H.; Ji, Junfeng
2018-05-01
Carbon isotope compositions of land snail shells (δ13Cshell) are shown to be indicative of local climate conditions. However, it is largely unknown how the responses of δ13Cshell to climatic factors changes amongst different species. In this study, we collected 3 species of land snail shells across the East Asian monsoon region of China to explore the overall relationship between δ13Cshell as well as the response of individual species to the regional climate. Results show that, whereas all species collectively can provide a consensus relation between δ13Cshell and local climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation; the response of individual species to the fluctuations of these factors is not uniform. Specifically, while the southerly species Bradybaena similaris exhibits robust δ13Cshell - mean precipitation correlation in both linearity and sensitivity, a common northerly species, Cathaica fasciola, only finds limited utility as a climate indicator, particularly for precipitation. Meanwhile, the south-central species Acusta ravida appears to be able to faithfully record past climate conditions despite showing a wider distribution and a broader habitat. Such species-dependent nature in the relations between δ13Cshell and local climatic factors can be attributed to the effect of ingested carbonate and variations in eco-physiological factors of different species, and is expected to be widespread, suggesting the need to be taken into consideration for future studies.
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ARM/GCSS/SPARC TWP-ICE CRM Intercomparison Study
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Fridlind, Ann; Ackerman, Andrew; Petch, Jon; Field, Paul; Hill, Adrian; McFarquhar, Greg; Xie, Shaocheng; Zhang, Minghua
2010-01-01
Specifications are provided for running a cloud-resolving model (CRM) and submitting results in a standardized format for inclusion in a n intercomparison study and archiving for public access. The simulated case study is based on measurements obtained during the 2006 Tropical Warm Pool - International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) led by the U. S. department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The modeling intercomparison study is based on objectives developed in concert with the Stratospheric Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) program and the GEWEX cloud system study (GCSS) program. The Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) is a core project of the World Climate Research PRogramme (WCRP).
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Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change
Heller, Nicole E.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Ackerly, David; Weiss, Stuart; Recinos, Amanda; Branciforte, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Micheli, Elisabeth
2015-01-01
Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change? Some conservation scientists argue that planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species, which shift in response to climate change. Climate is one important abiotic driver of biodiversity patterns, as different climates host different biological communities and genetic pools. We propose conservation networks that capture the full range of climatic diversity in a region will improve the resilience of biotic communities to climate change compared to networks that do not. In this study we used historical and future hydro-climate projections from the high resolution Basin Characterization Model to explore the utility of directly targeting climatic diversity in planning. Using the spatial planning tool, Marxan, we designed conservation networks to capture the diversity of climate types, at the regional and sub-regional scale, and compared them to networks we designed to capture the diversity of vegetation types. By focusing on the Conservation Lands Network (CLN) of the San Francisco Bay Area as a real-world case study, we compared the potential resilience of networks by examining two factors: the range of climate space captured, and climatic stability to 18 future climates, reflecting different emission scenarios and global climate models. We found that the climate-based network planned at the sub-regional scale captured a greater range of climate space and showed higher climatic stability than the vegetation and regional based-networks. At the same time, differences among network scenarios are small relative to the variance in climate stability across global climate models. Across different projected futures, topographically heterogeneous areas consistently show greater climate stability than homogenous areas. The analysis suggests that utilizing high-resolution climate and hydrological data in conservation planning improves the likely resilience of biodiversity to climate change. We used these analyses to suggest new conservation priorities for the San Francisco Bay Area.
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Teurlai, Magali; Menkès, Christophe Eugène; Cavarero, Virgil; Degallier, Nicolas; Descloux, Elodie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Guillaumot, Laurent; Libourel, Thérèse; Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Mathieu-Daudé, Françoise; Mangeas, Morgan
2015-12-01
Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3 °C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.
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Teurlai, Magali; Menkès, Christophe Eugène; Cavarero, Virgil; Degallier, Nicolas; Descloux, Elodie; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Guillaumot, Laurent; Libourel, Thérèse; Lucio, Paulo Sergio; Mathieu-Daudé, Françoise; Mangeas, Morgan
2015-01-01
Background/Objectives Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon. Methods We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections. Results The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people's way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double. Conclusion In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries. PMID:26624008
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Serman, E. A.; Akanda, A. S. S.; Ginsberg, H. S.; Couret, J.
2015-12-01
Each year, there are an estimated 50-100 million cases of dengue fever worldwide, roughly 30 times the number of cases as 50 years ago, with some estimates even higher. Puerto Rico (PR) has experienced epidemic dengue activity since 1963, and the disease is currently endemic. Since 1990 there have been 4 large epidemics, the most recent in 2010 where there were nearly 27,000 cases reported, amounting to almost 1% of the island's total population. Because no vaccine is currently available, effective control is dependent on our ability to understand the complex relationship between environmental factors, mosquito vector ecology, and disease epidemiology. Dengue virus is transmitted primarily by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes, as humans are the preferred host for Ae. aegypti. The purpose of our analysis is to assess temporal and spatial patterns of dengue transmission in PR and relate this to both climatic and anthropogenic factors. Unlike past studies, which have used San Juan to represent the island as a whole, our research will investigate regional dynamics in dengue transmission, as preliminary results have shown significant differences in population density, disease incidence, and environmental and climatic variables. Data from the Passive Dengue Surveillance System of CDC, meteorological observations from NCDC, and remote sensing data from USGS and NASA will be used together to identify relationships between climate, urbanization, and dengue incidence for PR at various spatial and temporal scales. Preliminary climatic factors considered include precipitation, temperature, humidity, and soil moisture. Finally, we will assess measures of urbanization such as land cover, land use, population density, and infrastructure that can make regional differences in dengue incidence each year. Results from this study could help create early warning systems for dengue surveillance in Puerto Rico, and develop techniques that can be applied to other areas of the world.
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Pest management under climate change: The importance of understanding tritrophic relations.
Castex, V; Beniston, M; Calanca, P; Fleury, D; Moreau, J
2018-03-01
Plants and insects depend on climatic factors (temperature, solar radiation, precipitations, relative humidity and CO 2 ) for their development. Current knowledge suggests that climate change can alter plants and insects development and affect their interactions. Shifts in tritrophic relations are of particular concern for Integrated Pest Management (IPM), because responses at the highest trophic level (natural enemies) are highly sensitive to warmer temperature. It is expected that natural enemies could benefit from better conditions for their development in northern latitudes and IPM could be facilitated by a longer period of overlap. This may not be the case in southern latitudes, where climate could become too warm. Adapting IPM to future climatic conditions requires therefore understanding of changes that occur at the various levels and their linkages. The aim of this review is to assess the current state of knowledge and highlights the gaps in the existing literature concerning how climate change can affect tritrophic relations. Because of the economic importance of wine production, the interactions between grapevine, Vitis vinifera (1st), Lobesia botrana (2nd) and Trichogramma spp., (3rd), an egg parasitoid of Lobesia botrana, are considered as a case study for addressing specific issues. In addition, we discuss models that could be applied in order quantify alterations in the synchrony or asynchrony patterns but also the shifts in the timing and spatial distribution of hosts, pests and their natural enemies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Darmanto, N. S.; Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Takakuwa, S.
2016-12-01
Economic development in Southeast Asia megacities leads to rapid transformation into more complicated urban configurations. These configurations, including building geometry, enhance aerodynamic drag thus reducing near-surface wind speeds. Roughness parameters representing building geometry, along with anthropogenic heat emissions, contribute to the formation of urban heat islands (UHI). All these have been reproduced successfully in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with an improved single-layer urban canopy model incorporating a realistic distribution of urban parameters and anthropogenic heat emission in the Jakarta Greater Area. We apply this technology to climate change studies by introducing future urbanization defined by urban sprawl, vertical rise in buildings, and increase anthropogenic heat emission (AHE) due to population changes, into futuristic climate modelling. To simulate 2050s future climate, pseudo-global warming method was used which relied on current and ensembles of 5 CMIP5 GCMs for 2 representative concentration pathways (RCP), 2.6 and 8.5. To determine future urbanization level, 2050 population growth and energy consumption were estimated from shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP). This allows the estimation of future urban sprawl, building geometry, and AHE using the SLEUTH urban growth model and spatial growth assumptions. Two cases representing combinations of RCP and SSP were simulated in WRF: RCP2.6-SSP1 and RCP8.5-SSP3. Each case corresponds to best and worst-case scenarios of implementing adaptation and mitigation strategies, respectively. It was found that 2-m temperature of Jakarta will increase by 0.62°C (RCP2.6) and 1.44°C (RCP8.5) solely from background climate change; almost on the same magnitude as the background temperature increase of RCP2.6 (0.5°C) and RCP8.5 (1.2°C). Compared with previous studies, the result indicates that the effect of climate change on UHI in tropical cities may be lesser than cities located in the mid-latitudes. However, it is expected that the combined effect of urbanization and climate change will result to significant changes on future urban temperature. ACK: This research was supported by the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (S-14) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan.
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Climate Change In Indonesia (Case Study : Medan, Palembang, Semarang)
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Suryadi, Yadi; Sugianto, Denny Nugroho; Hadiyanto
2018-02-01
Indonesia's maritime continent is one of the most vulnerable regions regarding to climate change impacts. One of the vulnerable areas affected are the urban areas, because they are home to almost half of Indonesia's population where they live and earn a living, so that environmental management efforts need to be done. To support such efforts, climate change analysis is required. The analysis was carried out in several big cities in Indonesia. The method used in the research was trend analysis of temperature, rainfall, shifts in rainfall patterns, and extreme climatic trend. The data of rainfall and temperature were obtained from Meteorology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG). The result shows that the air temperature and rainfall have a positive trend, except in Semarang City which having a negative rainfall trend. The result also shows heavy rainfall trends. These indicate that climate is changing in these three cities.
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Masud, Muhammad Mehedi; Junsheng, Ha; Akhtar, Rulia; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Kari, Fatimah Binti
2015-02-01
This paper estimates Malaysian farmers' willingness to pay (WTP) for a planned adaptation programme for addressing climate issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. We used the contingent valuation method (CVM) for a monetary valuation of farmers' preferences for a planned adaptation programme by ascertaining the value attached to address climatic issues in the Malaysian agricultural sector. Structured questionnaires were distributed among the sampled farmers. The study found that 74 % of respondents were willing to pay for a planned adaptation programme and that several socioeconomic and motivation factors have greater influence on their WTP. This paper clearly specifies the steps needed for all institutional bodies to better address issues in climate change. The outcomes of this paper will support policy makers to better design an efficient adaptation framework for adapting to the adverse impacts of climate change.
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DOE ZERH Case Study: Addison Homes, Cobbler Lane, Simpsonville, SC
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
none,
2015-09-01
Case study of a DOE 2015 Housing Innovation Award winning custom home in the mixed humid climate that got a HERS 41 without PV, with 2x4 16” on-center walls with 1 inch rigid foam, a sealed conditioned crawl space insulated on inside with 2 inches poly iso, a vented attic with R-38 blown fiberglass, a central heat pump with fresh air intake.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
2015-06-01
For this project Amaris worked with U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) team, NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership, to approach zero energy in Minnesota's cold climate using reasonable, cost-effective, and replicable construction materials and practices. The result is a passive solar, super-efficient 3542-ft2 walkout rambler with all the creature comforts.
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DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
None
2014-09-01
This case study describes the University of Minnesota’s Cloquet Residential Research Facility (CRRF) in northern Minnesota, which features more than 2,500 ft2 of below-grade space for building systems foundation hygrothermal research. Here, the NorthernSTAR Building America Partnership team researches ways to improve the energy efficiency of the building envelope, including wall assemblies, basements, roofs, insulation, and air leakage.
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DOE ZERH Case Study: Heirloom Design Build, Euclid Avenue, Atlanta, GA
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
none,
2015-09-01
Case study of a DOE 2015 Housing Innovation Award winning custom home in the mixed-humid climate that got a HERS 50 without PV, with 2x6 16” on center walls with R-19 ocsf; basement with R-28 ccsf, R-5 rigid foam under slab; sealed attic with R-28 ocsf under roof deck; 22.8 SEER; 12.5 HSPF heat pump.
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DOE ZERH Case Study: Mutual Housing California, Mutual Housing at Spring Lake, Woodland, CA
DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)
none,
2015-09-01
Case study of a DOE 2015 Housing Innovation Award winning multifamily project of 62 affordable-housing apartment home in the hot-dry climate that exceeded CA Title 24-2008 by 35%, with 2x4 16” on center walls with R-21 fiberglass bass walls, uninsulated salb on grade foundation; vented attic with R-44 blown fiberglass; air to water heat pumps.
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Megan M. Friggens; Stephen N. Matthews
2012-01-01
Species distribution models for 147 bird species have been derived using climate, elevation, and distribution of current tree species as potential predictors (Matthews et al. 2011). In this case study, a risk matrix was developed for two bird species (fig. A2-5), with projected change in bird habitat (the x axis) based on models of changing suitable habitat resulting...
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ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sherblom, Elizabeth; Scully, Diana, Ed.
Economic self-sufficiency is the key to reviving and maintaining a strong Indian culture; therefore, the goal of the Passamaquoddy Enterprise Zone Project was to develop an understanding of the types of business that do well in the area and those that do not do well. The study used interviews with business managers as well as case studies of 12…
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kuzera, Kristopher
The scientific community has widely accepted that climate plays a key role in the sustainability and transmission of many infectious diseases. Global climate change can potentially trigger the spread of disease into new regions and increase the intensity of disease in regions where it is endemic. This study explores the association between monthly conditions of climate change to changes in disease risk, emphasizing the potential spread of dengue fever due to climate change in Thailand. This study also develops techniques new to GIS and remote sensing that generate surfaces of daily minimum temperature toward identifying areas at greater transmission risk. Dengue fever expansion due to global warming is a serious concern for Thailand where warming temperatures may increase the size of the habitat of the disease-spreading vector, Aedes aegypti, particularly during cooler months when transmission is limited by environmental conditions. In this study, first, the association between past dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and climate in Thailand is determined. Second, evidence of recent climate change is related to changes in DHF rates. Third, daily minimum temperature is derived from remote sensing toward identifying the spatial and temporal limitations of potential transmission risk. The results indicate that minimum temperature has recently experienced a rapid increase, particularly in the winter months when transmission is low. This is associated with a recent rise in winter DHF cases. As increasing minimum temperatures in these regions are anticipated to continue, we can expect dengue transmission rates to also increase throughout the year.
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Kolstad, Erik W.; Johansson, Kjell Arne
2011-01-01
Background Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. Objectives The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. Methods We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. Results The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8–11% (with SDs of 3–5%) by 2010–2039 and 22–29% (SDs of 9–12%) by 2070–2099. Conclusions Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate–health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health. PMID:20929684
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NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Elkadiri, R.; Momm, H.; Yasarer, L.; Armour, G. L.
2017-12-01
Climatic conditions play a major role in physical processes impacting soil and agrochemicals detachment and transportation from/in agricultural watersheds. In addition, these climatic conditions are projected to significantly vary spatially and temporally in the 21st century, leading to vast uncertainties about the future of sediment and non-point source pollution transport in agricultural watersheds. In this study, we selected the sunflower basin in the lower Mississippi River basin, USA to contribute in the understanding of how climate change affects watershed processes and the transport of pollutant loads. The climate projections used in this study were retrieved from the archive of World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5) project. The CMIP5 dataset was selected because it contains the most up-to-date spatially downscaled and bias corrected climate projections. A subset of ten GCMs representing a range in projected climate were spatially downscaled for the sunflower watershed. Statistics derived from downscaled GCM output representing the 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 time periods were used to generate maximum/minimum temperature and precipitation on a daily time step using the USDA Synthetic Weather Generator, SYNTOR. These downscaled climate data were then utilized as inputs to run in the Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source (AnnAGNPS) pollution watershed model to estimate time series of runoff, sediment, and nutrient loads produced from the watershed. For baseline conditions a validated simulation of the watershed was created and validated using historical data from 2000 until 2015.