Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

PubMed

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

2013-01-01

Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

Visualizing the Chemistry of Climate Change (VC3Chem): Online resources for teaching and learning chemistry through the rich context of climate science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenzie, L.; Versprille, A.; Towns, M.; Mahaffy, P.; Martin, B.; Kirchhoff, M.

2013-12-01

Global climate change is one of the most pressing environmental challenges facing humanity. Many of the important underlying concepts require mental models that are built on a fundamental understanding of chemistry, yet connections to climate science and global climate change are largely missing from undergraduate chemistry courses for science majors. In Visualizing the Chemistry of Climate Change (VC3Chem), we have developed and piloted a set of online modules that addresses this gap by teaching core chemistry concepts through the rich context of climate science. These interactive web-based digital learning experiences enable students to learn about isotopes and their relevance in determining historical temperature records, IR absorption by greenhouse gases, and acid/base chemistry and the impacts on changing ocean pH. The efficacy of these tools and this approach has been assessed through measuring changes in students' understanding about both climate change and core chemistry concepts.

Rice Production Vulnerability to Climate Change in Indonesia: An Overview on Community-based Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Komaladara, A. A. S. P.; Budiasa, I. W.; Ambarawati, I. G. A. A.

2015-12-01

Rice remains to be a major crop and staple food in Indonesia. The task to ensure that rice production meets the demand of a growing population continues to engage the attention of national planners and policy makers. However, the adverse effects of climate change on agriculture production have presented Indonesia with yet another significant challenge. The exposure of rice crops to climate-related hazards such as temperature stress, floods, and drought, may lead to lower yield and self-sufficiency rate. This study explores the vulnerability of rice production to the effects of climate change in Indonesia. Considering the vast geographical span of the country and varying exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity to climate change at regional level, this study emphasize the importance of community-based adaptation. Results from a simulation based on production and climate data from 1984 to 2014 indicates that rice production is sensitive to variation in growing season temperature and precipitation. A projection of these climate factors in 2050 has a significant impact on the major rice crop. To manage the impact of climate change, this study turns to the potential roles of farmer organizations, such as Subak, in adaptation strategies. The Subak in Bali is recognized for its cultural and organizational framework that highlights the sharing of knowledge and local wisdom in rice production. This is demonstrated by its efficient community-based irrigation management system, leading to sustainable rice production. Keywords: rice production, climate change, community-based adaptation, Indonesia

Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

PubMed

Princé, Karine; Lorrillière, Romain; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Léger, François; Jiguet, Frédéric

2015-01-01

Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture) showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform sustainable agricultural policies for the future.

Turning Misinformation into Climate Change Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borah, N.; Cook, J.

2017-12-01

Misinformation reduces science literacy and interferes with new learning. This undermines the application of science to understanding and addressing important societal issues. Intentional misinformation and fake news is of growing concern to the scientists, educators and policymakers. Specifically, misinformation about human-caused climate change has become prominent in recent times creating confusion among the public. Hence, interventions that inoculate people against climate change misinformation are very much necessary. One of the most promising applications of inoculation is in the classroom, using a teaching approach known as misconception-based learning. This involves explaining scientific concepts while directly refuting related misconceptions. Misconception-based learning is a powerful way to neutralize the influence of climate change misinformation by increasing both science literacy and critical thinking skills. Students do not possess as many erroneous preconceptions about climate change relative to adults and hence correcting such misconceptions among students is more effective using this teaching approach. The misconception-based teaching approach has a number of benefits. It results in greater and longer-lasting learning gains relative to standard lessons. It equips students with the tools and knowledge to distinguish between facts and myths and increases confidence to engage in constructive discussion with family and friends about climate change. Further, research has shown that students have an effect on parents' environmental attitudes and behavior. Consequently, misconception-based learning presents the opportunity to reach the adult community through the students. We have developed a high school climate change curriculum based on the misconception-based learning framework. Our intent is to run a pilot project that tests the impact of this curriculum on students' climate perceptions, and any second-order influence on their parents. This research project will establish the effectiveness of this teaching approach in raising climate literacy, neutralizing the influence of misinformation, and equipping students with the tools and confidence to converse with their friends and family about climate change.

Using Local Stories as a Call to Action on Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Minnesota

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Phipps, M.

2015-12-01

Climate Generation: A Will Steger Legacy and the University of Minnesota's Regional Sustainability Development Partnerships (RSDP) have developed a novel approach to engaging rural Minnesotans on climate change issues. Through the use of personal, local stories about individuals' paths to action to mitigate and or adapt to climate change, Climate Generation and RSDP aim to spur others to action. Minnesota's Changing Climate project includes 12 Climate Convenings throughout rural Minnesota in a range of communities (tourism-based, agrarian, natural resources-based, university towns) to engage local populations in highly local conversations about climate change, its local impacts, and local solutions currently occurring. Climate Generation and RSDP have partnered with Molly Phipps Consulting to evaluate the efficacy of this approach in rural Minnesota. Data include pre and post convening surveys examining participants' current action around climate change, attitudes toward climate change (using questions from Maibach, Roser-Renouf, and Leiserowitz, 2009), and the strength of their social network to support their current and ongoing work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change. Although the Climate Convenings are tailored to each community, all include a resource fair of local organizations already engaging in climate change mitigation and adaptation activities which participants can participate in, a welcome from a trusted local official, a presentation on the science of climate change, sharing of local climate stories, and break-out groups where participants can learn how to get involved in a particular mitigation or adaptation strategy. Preliminary results have been positive: participants feel motivated to work toward mitigating and adapting to climate change, and more local stories have emerged that can be shared in follow-up webinars and on a project website to continue to inspire others to act.

Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints.

PubMed

Gillett, Nathan P

2015-11-13

Projected climate change integrates the net response to multiple climate feedbacks. Whereas existing long-term climate change projections are typically based on unweighted individual climate model simulations, as observed climate change intensifies it is increasingly becoming possible to constrain the net response to feedbacks and hence projected warming directly from observed climate change. One approach scales simulated future warming based on a fit to observations over the historical period, but this approach is only accurate for near-term projections and for scenarios of continuously increasing radiative forcing. For this reason, the recent Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) included such observationally constrained projections in its assessment of warming to 2035, but used raw model projections of longer term warming to 2100. Here a simple approach to weighting model projections based on an observational constraint is proposed which does not assume a linear relationship between past and future changes. This approach is used to weight model projections of warming in 2081-2100 relative to 1986-2005 under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 forcing scenario, based on an observationally constrained estimate of the Transient Climate Response derived from a detection and attribution analysis. The resulting observationally constrained 5-95% warming range of 0.8-2.5 K is somewhat lower than the unweighted range of 1.1-2.6 K reported in the IPCC AR5. © 2015 The Authors.

Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.

PubMed

Pyke, Christopher R; Thomas, Roxanne; Porter, Read D; Hellmann, Jessica J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lodge, David M; Chavarria, Gabriela

2008-06-01

Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.

Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program: supporting climate science and enhancing climate services in Pacific Island Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Yuriy; Jones, David; Hendon, Harry; Charles, Andrew; Shelton, Kay; de Wit, Roald; Cottrill, Andrew; Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki; Atalifo, Terry; Prakash, Bipendra; Seuseu, Sunny; Kaniaha, Salesa

2013-04-01

Over the past few years, significant progress in developing climate science for the Pacific has been achieved through a number of research projects undertaken under the Australian government International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (ICCAI). Climate change has major impact on Pacific Island Countries and advancement in understanding past, present and futures climate in the region is vital for island nation to develop adaptation strategies to their rapidly changing environment. This new science is now supporting new services for a wide range of stakeholders in the Pacific through the National Meteorological Agencies of the region. Seasonal climate prediction is particularly important for planning in agriculture, tourism and other weather-sensitive industries, with operational services provided by all National Meteorological Services in the region. The interaction between climate variability and climate change, for example during droughts or very warm seasons, means that much of the early impacts of climate change are being felt through seasonal variability. A means to reduce these impacts is to improve forecasts to support decision making. Historically, seasonal climate prediction has been developed based on statistical past relationship. Statistical methods relate meteorological variables (e.g. temperature and rainfall) to indices which describe large-scale environment (e.g. ENSO indices) using historical data. However, with observed climate change, statistical approaches based on historical data are getting less accurate and less reliable. Recognising the value of seasonal forecasts, we have used outputs of a dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia), to develop web-based information tools (http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/pasap/index.shtml) which are now used by climate services in 15 partner countries in the Pacific for preparing seasonal climate outlooks. Initial comparison conducted during 2012 has shown that the predictive skill of POAMA is consistently higher than skill of statistical-based method. Presently, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning (PACCSAP) program, we are developing dynamical model-based seasonal climate prediction for climate extremes. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones which are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas of Australia and Pacific Island Countries. To analyse historical cyclone data, we developed a consolidate archive for the Southern Hemisphere and North-Western Pacific (http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/tracks/). Using dynamical climate models (POAMA and Japan Meteorological Agency's model), we work on improving accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved seasonal climate prediction based on dynamical models will further enhance climate services in Australia and Pacific Island Countries.

Can metric-based approaches really improve multi-model climate projections? A perfect model framework applied to summer temperature change in France.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boé, Julien; Terray, Laurent

2014-05-01

Ensemble approaches for climate change projections have become ubiquitous. Because of large model-to-model variations and, generally, lack of rationale for the choice of a particular climate model against others, it is widely accepted that future climate change and its impacts should not be estimated based on a single climate model. Generally, as a default approach, the multi-model ensemble mean (MMEM) is considered to provide the best estimate of climate change signals. The MMEM approach is based on the implicit hypothesis that all the models provide equally credible projections of future climate change. This hypothesis is unlikely to be true and ideally one would want to give more weight to more realistic models. A major issue with this alternative approach lies in the assessment of the relative credibility of future climate projections from different climate models, as they can only be evaluated against present-day observations: which present-day metric(s) should be used to decide which models are "good" and which models are "bad" in the future climate? Once a supposedly informative metric has been found, other issues arise. What is the best statistical method to combine multiple models results taking into account their relative credibility measured by a given metric? How to be sure in the end that the metric-based estimate of future climate change is not in fact less realistic than the MMEM? It is impossible to provide strict answers to those questions in the climate change context. Yet, in this presentation, we propose a methodological approach based on a perfect model framework that could bring some useful elements of answer to the questions previously mentioned. The basic idea is to take a random climate model in the ensemble and treat it as if it were the truth (results of this model, in both past and future climate, are called "synthetic observations"). Then, all the other members from the multi-model ensemble are used to derive thanks to a metric-based approach a posterior estimate of climate change, based on the synthetic observation of the metric. Finally, it is possible to compare the posterior estimate to the synthetic observation of future climate change to evaluate the skill of the method. The main objective of this presentation is to describe and apply this perfect model framework to test different methodological issues associated with non-uniform model weighting and similar metric-based approaches. The methodology presented is general, but will be applied to the specific case of summer temperature change in France, for which previous works have suggested potentially useful metrics associated with soil-atmosphere and cloud-temperature interactions. The relative performances of different simple statistical approaches to combine multiple model results based on metrics will be tested. The impact of ensemble size, observational errors, internal variability, and model similarity will be characterized. The potential improvements associated with metric-based approaches compared to the MMEM is terms of errors and uncertainties will be quantified.

Planning for climate change: the need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

PubMed Central

Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

2016-01-01

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

Linking Student Achievement and Teacher Science Content Knowledge about Climate Change: Ensuring the Nations 3 Million Teachers Understand the Science through an Electronic Professional Development System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F.; Byers, A.

2009-12-01

The scientific complexities of global climate change, with wide-ranging economic and social significance, create an intellectual challenge that mandates greater public understanding of climate change research and the concurrent ability to make informed decisions. The critical need for an engaged, science literate public has been repeatedly emphasized by multi-disciplinary entities like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Academies (Rising Above the Gathering Storm report), and the interagency group responsible for the recently updated Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science. There is a clear need for an American public that is climate literate and for K-12 teachers confident in teaching relevant science content. A key goal in the creation of a climate literate society is to enhance teachers’ knowledge of global climate change through a national, scalable, and sustainable professional development system, using compelling climate science data and resources to stimulate inquiry-based student interest in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM). This session will explore innovative e-learning technologies to address the limitations of one-time, face-to-face workshops, thereby adding significant sustainability and scalability. The resources developed will help teachers sift through the vast volume of global climate change information and provide research-based, high-quality science content and pedagogical information to help teachers effectively teach their students about the complex issues surrounding global climate change. The Learning Center is NSTA's e-professional development portal to help the nations teachers and informal educators learn about the scientific complexities of global climate change through research-based techniques and is proven to significantly improve teacher science content knowledge.

Development of an Empirically-Based Conditional Learning Progression for Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breslyn, Wayne; Drewes, Andrea; McGinnis, J. Randy; Hestness, Emily; Mouza, Chrystalla

2017-01-01

Climate change encompasses a broad and complex set of concepts that is often challenging for students and educators. Using a learning progressions (LPs) knowledge system, we developed a LP that described student learning of climate change. In this exploratory study, we present findings from written assessments of climate change (n = 294) and…

Chapter 6. Impacts of Climate Change on Oregon's Coasts and Estuaries in "Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report"

EPA Science Inventory

In 2007 the Oregon legislature created a new Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI), which is based at Oregon State University (OSU). As part of its charter, OCCRI is mandated to produce a biennial report for the state legislature synthesizing climate change impacts a...

A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

2017-04-01

Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?

PubMed

Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne

2015-06-02

Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.

Projected asymmetric response of Adélie penguins to Antarctic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cimino, Megan A.; Lynch, Heather J.; Saba, Vincent S.; Oliver, Matthew J.

2016-06-01

The contribution of climate change to shifts in a species’ geographic distribution is a critical and often unresolved ecological question. Climate change in Antarctica is asymmetric, with cooling in parts of the continent and warming along the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP). The Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae) is a circumpolar meso-predator exposed to the full range of Antarctic climate and is undergoing dramatic population shifts coincident with climate change. We used true presence-absence data on Adélie penguin breeding colonies to estimate past and future changes in habitat suitability during the chick-rearing period based on historic satellite observations and future climate model projections. During the contemporary period, declining Adélie penguin populations experienced more years with warm sea surface temperature compared to populations that are increasing. Based on this relationship, we project that one-third of current Adélie penguin colonies, representing ~20% of their current population, may be in decline by 2060. However, climate model projections suggest refugia may exist in continental Antarctica beyond 2099, buffering species-wide declines. Climate change impacts on penguins in the Antarctic will likely be highly site specific based on regional climate trends, and a southward contraction in the range of Adélie penguins is likely over the next century.

Experiential-Based Climate Change Education: Fostering Students' Knowledge and Motivation towards the Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karpudewan, Mageswary; Mohd Ali Khan, Nur Sabrina

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most important environmental issues affecting our society today and we need to educate the citizens about the impact on human lives. An attempt was made to integrate experiential-based climate change education into the teaching and learning of secondary school Biology lessons on the topic of "Endangered…

A roadmap to effective urban climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiadi, R.

2018-03-01

This paper outlines a roadmap to effective urban climate change adaptation built from our practical understanding of the evidence and effects of climate change and the preparation of climate change adaptation strategies and plans. This roadmap aims to drive research in achieving fruitful knowledge and solution-based achievable recommendations in adapting to climate change in urban areas with effective and systematic manner. This paper underscores the importance of the interplay between local government initiatives and a national government for effective adaptation to climate change and takes into account the policy process and politics. This paper argues that effective urban climate change adaptation has a contribution to build urban resilience and helps the achievement of national government goals and targets in climate change adaptation.

77 FR 2996 - National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-20

... (Strategy). The adverse impacts of climate change transcend political and administrative boundaries. No... principles and science-based practices--for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife... resource adaptation to climate change, and will describe mechanisms that will foster collaboration among...

ClimateWizard: A Framework and Easy-to-Use Web-Mapping Tool for Global, Regional, and Local Climate-Change Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Hoekstra, J.; Lawler, J. J.; Kareiva, P.

2008-12-01

Now that there is overwhelming evidence of global climate change, scientists, managers and planners (i.e. practitioners) need to assess the potential impacts of climate change on particular ecological systems, within specific geographic areas, and at spatial scales they care about, in order to make better land management, planning, and policy decisions. Unfortunately, this application of climate science to real world decisions and planning has proceeded too slowly because we lack tools for translating cutting-edge climate science and climate-model outputs into something managers and planners can work with at local or regional scales (CCSP 2008). To help increase the accessibility of climate information, we have developed a freely-available, easy-to-use, web-based climate-change analysis toolbox, called ClimateWizard, for assessing how climate has and is projected to change at specific geographic locations throughout the world. The ClimateWizard uses geographic information systems (GIS), web-services (SOAP/XML), statistical analysis platforms (e.g. R- project), and web-based mapping services (e.g. Google Earth/Maps, KML/GML) to provide a variety of different analyses (e.g. trends and departures) and outputs (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). Because ClimateWizard analyzes large climate datasets stored remotely on powerful computers, users of the tool do not need to have fast computers or expensive software, but simply need access to the internet. The analysis results are then provided to users in a Google Maps webpage tailored to the specific climate-change question being asked. The ClimateWizard is not a static product, but rather a framework to be built upon and modified to suit the purposes of specific scientific, management, and policy questions. For example, it can be expanded to include bioclimatic variables (e.g. evapotranspiration) and marine data (e.g. sea surface temperature), as well as improved future climate projections, and climate-change impact analyses involving hydrology, vegetation, wildfire, disease, and food security. By harnessing the power of computer and web- based technologies, the ClimateWizard puts local, regional, and global climate-change analyses in the hands of a wider array of managers, planners, and scientists.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

PubMed

Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

2013-10-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

PubMed Central

Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

2013-01-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

The New England Climate Adaptation Project: Enhancing Local Readiness to Adapt to Climate Change through Role-Play Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rumore, D.; Kirshen, P. H.; Susskind, L.

2014-12-01

Despite scientific consensus that the climate is changing, local efforts to prepare for and manage climate change risks remain limited. How we can raise concern about climate change risks and enhance local readiness to adapt to climate change's effects? In this presentation, we will share the lessons learned from the New England Climate Adaptation Project (NECAP), a participatory action research project that tested science-based role-play simulations as a tool for educating the public about climate change risks and simulating collective risk management efforts. NECAP was a 2-year effort involving the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the Consensus Building Institute, the National Estuarine Research Reserve System, and four coastal New England municipalities. During 2012-2013, the NECAP team produced downscaled climate change projections, a summary risk assessment, and a stakeholder assessment for each partner community. Working with local partners, we used these assessments to create a tailored, science-based role-play simulation for each site. Through a series of workshops in 2013, NECAP engaged between 115-170 diverse stakeholders and members of the public in each partner municipality in playing the simulation and a follow up conversation about local climate change risks and possible adaptation strategies. Data were collected through before-and-after surveys administered to all workshop participants, follow-up interviews with 25 percent of workshop participants, public opinion polls conducted before and after our intervention, and meetings with public officials. This presentation will report our research findings and explain how science-based role-play simulations can be used to help communicate local climate change risks and enhance local readiness to adapt.

Country, climate change adaptation and colonisation: insights from an Indigenous adaptation planning process, Australia.

PubMed

Nursey-Bray, Melissa; Palmer, Robert

2018-03-01

Indigenous peoples are going to be disproportionately affected by climate change. Developing tailored, place based, and culturally appropriate solutions will be necessary. Yet finding cultural and institutional 'fit' within and between competing values-based climate and environmental management governance regimes remains an ongoing challenge. This paper reports on a collaborative research project with the Arabana people of central Australia, that resulted in the production of the first Indigenous community-based climate change adaptation strategy in Australia. We aimed to try and understand what conditions are needed to support Indigenous driven adaptation initiatives, if there are any cultural differences that need accounting for and how, once developed they be integrated into existing governance arrangements. Our analysis found that climate change adaptation is based on the centrality of the connection to 'country' (traditional land), it needs to be aligned with cultural values, and focus on the building of adaptive capacity. We find that the development of climate change adaptation initiatives cannot be divorced from the historical context of how the Arabana experienced and collectively remember colonisation. We argue that in developing culturally responsive climate governance for and with Indigenous peoples, that that the history of colonisation and the ongoing dominance of entrenched Western governance regimes needs acknowledging and redressing into contemporary environmental/climate management.

Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

PubMed

Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

2014-08-01

This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

The implications of climate change on pavement performance and design.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-25

Pavements are designed based on historic climatic patterns, reflecting local climate and : incorporating assumptions about a reasonable range of temperatures and precipitation levels. : Given anticipated climate changes and the inherent uncertainty a...

Yesterday's dinner, tomorrow's weather, today's news? US newspaper coverage of food system contributions to climate change.

PubMed

Neff, Roni A; Chan, Iris L; Smith, Katherine Clegg

2009-07-01

There is strong evidence that what we eat and how it is produced affects climate change. The present paper examines coverage of food system contributions to climate change in top US newspapers. Using a sample of sixteen leading US newspapers from September 2005 to January 2008, two coders identified 'food and climate change' and 'climate change' articles based on specified criteria. Analyses examined variation across time and newspaper, the level of content relevant to food systems' contributions to climate change, and how such content was framed. There were 4582 'climate change' articles in these newspapers during this period. Of these, 2.4% mentioned food or agriculture contributions, with 0.4% coded as substantially focused on the issue and 0.5% mentioning food animal contributions. The level of content on food contributions to climate change increased across time. Articles initially addressed the issue primarily in individual terms, expanding to address business and government responsibility more in later articles. US newspaper coverage of food systems' effects on climate change during the study period increased, but still did not reflect the increasingly solid evidence of the importance of these effects. Increased coverage may lead to responses by individuals, industry and government. Based on co-benefits with nutritional public health messages and climate change's food security threats, the public health nutrition community has an important role to play in elaborating and disseminating information about food and climate change for the US media.

Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land-use change on an endangered bird.

PubMed

Bancroft, Betsy A; Lawler, Joshua J; Schumaker, Nathan H

2016-07-01

Climate change and land-use change are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Land-use change has resulted in extensive habitat loss for many species. Likewise, climate change has affected many species resulting in range shifts, changes in phenology, and altered interactions. We used a spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore the effects of land-use change and climate change on a population of the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis). We modeled the effects of land-use change using multiple scenarios representing different spatial arrangements of new training areas for troops across Fort Benning. We used projected climate-driven changes in habitat and changes in reproductive output to explore the potential effects of climate change. We summarized potential changes in habitat based on the output of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, run for multiple climate change scenarios through the year 2100. We projected potential changes in reproduction based on an empirical relationship between spring precipitation and the mean number of successful fledglings produced per nest attempt. As modeled in our study, climate change had virtually no effect on the RCW population. Conversely, simulated effects of land-use change resulted in the loss of up to 28 breeding pairs by 2100. However, the simulated impacts of development depended on where the development occurred and could be completely avoided if the new training areas were placed in poor-quality habitat. Our results demonstrate the flexibility inherent in many systems that allows seemingly incompatible human land uses, such as development, and conservation actions to exist side by side.

Potential change in lodgepole pine site index and distribution under climatic change in Alberta.

Treesearch

Robert A. Monserud; Yuqing Yang; Shongming Huang; Nadja Tchebakova

2008-01-01

We estimated the impact of global climate change on lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex. Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.) site productivity in Alberta based on the Alberta Climate Model and the A2 SRES climate change scenario projections from three global circulation models (CGCM2, HADCM3, and ECHAM4). Considerable warming is...

Losing the Lake: Simulations to Promote Gains in Student Knowledge and Interest about Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nussbaum, E. Michael; Owens, Marissa C.; Sinatra, Gale M.; Rehmat, Abeera P.; Cordova, Jacqueline R.; Ahmad, Sajjad; Harris, Fred C., Jr.; Dascalu, Sergiu M.

2015-01-01

Climate change literacy plays a key role in promoting sound political decisions and promoting sustainable consumption patterns. Based on evidence suggesting that student understanding and interest in climate change is best accomplished through studying local effects, we developed a simulation/game exploring the impact of climate change on the…

Integrated ocean management as a strategy to meet rapid climate change: the Norwegian case.

PubMed

Hoel, Alf Håkon; Olsen, Erik

2012-02-01

The prospects of rapid climate change and the potential existence of tipping points in marine ecosystems where nonlinear change may result from them being overstepped, raises the question of strategies for coping with ecosystem change. There is broad agreement that the combined forces of climate change, pollution and increasing economic activities necessitates more comprehensive approaches to oceans management, centering on the concept of ecosystem-based oceans management. This article addresses the Norwegian experience in introducing integrated, ecosystem-based oceans management, emphasizing how climate change, seen as a major long-term driver of change in ecosystems, is addressed in management plans. Understanding the direct effects of climate variability and change on ecosystems and indirect effects on human activities is essential for adaptive planning to be useful in the long-term management of the marine environment.

Climate change streamflow scenarios designed for critical period water resources planning studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamlet, A. F.; Snover, A. K.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2003-04-01

Long-range water planning in the United States is usually conducted by individual water management agencies using a critical period planning exercise based on a particular period of the observed streamflow record and a suite of internally-developed simulation tools representing the water system. In the context of planning for climate change, such an approach is flawed in that it assumes that the future climate will be like the historic record. Although more sophisticated planning methods will probably be required as time goes on, a short term strategy for incorporating climate uncertainty into long-range water planning as soon as possible is to create alternate inputs to existing planning methods that account for climate uncertainty as it affects both supply and demand. We describe a straight-forward technique for constructing streamflow scenarios based on the historic record that include the broad-based effects of changed regional climate simulated by several global climate models (GCMs). The streamflow scenarios are based on hydrologic simulations driven by historic climate data perturbed according to regional climate signals from four GCMs using the simple "delta" method. Further data processing then removes systematic hydrologic model bias using a quantile-based bias correction scheme, and lastly, the effects of random errors in the raw hydrologic simulations are removed. These techniques produce streamflow scenarios that are consistent in time and space with the historic streamflow record while incorporating fundamental changes in temperature and precipitation from the GCM scenarios. Planning model simulations based on these climate change streamflow scenarios can therefore be compared directly to planning model simulations based on the historic record of streamflows to help planners understand the potential impacts of climate uncertainty. The methods are currently being tested and refined in two large-scale planning exercises currently being conducted in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the US, and the resulting streamflow scenarios will be made freely available on the internet for a large number of sites in the PNW to help defray the costs of including climate change information in other studies.

Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change in the City of Chicago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Hayhoe, K.; Coffee, J.; McGraw, J.; Parzen, J.

2008-12-01

Under Mayor Richard M. Daley's leadership, the City of Chicago initiated the Chicago Climate Action Plan (CCAP) to better understand local implications of global climate change in both higher and lower emissions scenarios, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and implement programs to build future climate change resilience. The City approached this work not only as a way to make Chicago more adaptable in the future, but also to improve Chicago's quality of life today. The Chicago Climate Action Plan adopted stresses the importance of both reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Chicago and preparing for climate changes that may be unavoidable. Building off of the City's significant environmental programs and projects, and based on our analyses of the climate effects and impacts that improved the scientific understanding of future climate change impacts on Chicago, the City then developed a set of climate change adaptation strategies, resulting in the City of Chicago Climate Change Adaptation Summary. This document includes prioritization of climate change adaptations based on relative risk as well as framework strategies for those tactics categorized as "must do/early action." In early 2008, The Mayor's Office asked five Commissioners from its Green Steering Committee to chair adaptation work groups including: extreme heat; extreme precipitation; buildings, infrastructure and equipment; ecosystems; and leadership, planning and communications. Working with staff from relevant departments, sister agencies and other stakeholders, these work groups developed 39 basic adaptation work plans, including plans for enhancing the City's existing projects and programs that relate to climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation work will be on-going in City Departments under the Mayor's Office leadership. The City intends to continually monitor and improve its response to climate change, resulting in an improved quality of life for Chicago residents.

An Inquiry-Based Science Activity Centred on the Effects of Climate Change on Ocean Ecosystems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boaventura, Diana; Guilherme, Elsa; Faria, Cláudia

2016-01-01

We propose an inquiry-based science activity centred on the effects of climate change on ocean ecosystems. This activity can be used to improve acquisition of knowledge on the effects of climate change and to promote inquiry skills, such as researching, reading and selecting relevant information, identifying a problem, focusing on a research…

Real options analysis for photovoltaic project under climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Sejong; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2016-08-01

The decision on photovoltaic project depends on the level of climate environments. Changes in temperature and insolation affect photovoltaic output. It is important for investors to consider future climate conditions for determining investments on photovoltaic projects. We propose a real options-based framework to assess economic feasibility of photovoltaic project under climate change. The framework supports investors to evaluate climate change impact on photovoltaic projects under future climate uncertainty.

Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Saskatchewan: Case Study of the Rural Municipality of Rudy No. 284

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pittman, Jeremy; Wittrock, Virginia; Kulshreshtha, Surendra; Wheaton, Elaine

2011-01-01

With the likelihood of future changes in climate and climate variability, it is important to understand how human systems may be vulnerable. Rural communities in Saskatchewan having agricultural-based economies are particularly dependent on climate and could be among the most vulnerable human systems in Canada. Future changes in climate are likely…

Two takes on the ecosystem impacts of climate change and fishing: Comparing a size-based and a species-based ecosystem model in the central North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodworth-Jefcoats, Phoebe A.; Polovina, Jeffrey J.; Howell, Evan A.; Blanchard, Julia L.

2015-11-01

We compare two ecosystem model projections of 21st century climate change and fishing impacts in the central North Pacific. Both a species-based and a size-based ecosystem modeling approach are examined. While both models project a decline in biomass across all sizes in response to climate change and a decline in large fish biomass in response to increased fishing mortality, the models vary significantly in their handling of climate and fishing scenarios. For example, based on the same climate forcing the species-based model projects a 15% decline in catch by the end of the century while the size-based model projects a 30% decline. Disparities in the models' output highlight the limitations of each approach by showing the influence model structure can have on model output. The aspects of bottom-up change to which each model is most sensitive appear linked to model structure, as does the propagation of interannual variability through the food web and the relative impact of combined top-down and bottom-up change. Incorporating integrated size- and species-based ecosystem modeling approaches into future ensemble studies may help separate the influence of model structure from robust projections of ecosystem change.

Development of risk-based air quality management strategies under impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Liao, Kuo-Jen; Amar, Praveen; Tagaris, Efthimios; Russell, Armistead G

2012-05-01

Climate change is forecast to adversely affect air quality through perturbations in meteorological conditions, photochemical reactions, and precursor emissions. To protect the environment and human health from air pollution, there is an increasing recognition of the necessity of developing effective air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change. This paper presents a framework for developing risk-based air quality management strategies that can help policy makers improve their decision-making processes in response to current and future climate change about 30-50 years from now. Development of air quality management strategies under the impacts of climate change is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process involving four steps: (1) assessment of the impacts of climate change and associated uncertainties; (2) determination of air quality targets; (3) selections of potential air quality management options; and (4) identification of preferred air quality management strategies that minimize control costs, maximize benefits, or limit the adverse effects of climate change on air quality when considering the scarcity of resources. The main challenge relates to the level of uncertainties associated with climate change forecasts and advancements in future control measures, since they will significantly affect the risk assessment results and development of effective air quality management plans. The concept presented in this paper can help decision makers make appropriate responses to climate change, since it provides an integrated approach for climate risk assessment and management when developing air quality management strategies. Development of climate-responsive air quality management strategies is fundamentally a risk assessment and risk management process. The risk assessment process includes quantification of climate change impacts on air quality and associated uncertainties. Risk management for air quality under the impacts of climate change includes determination of air quality targets, selections of potential management options, and identification of effective air quality management strategies through decision-making models. The risk-based decision-making framework can also be applied to develop climate-responsive management strategies for the other environmental dimensions and assess costs and benefits of future environmental management policies.

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

PubMed Central

Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

2016-01-01

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation. PMID:27625660

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

PubMed

Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

2016-01-01

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation.

Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

PubMed

Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

2016-04-01

Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species.

PubMed

Quintero, Ignacio; Wiens, John J

2013-08-01

A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time-calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10,000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Climate Change, Human Health, and Biomedical Research: Analysis of the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio

PubMed Central

Balbus, John M.; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E.; Newton, Sheila A.; Reid, Britt C.; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P.

2013-01-01

Background: According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. Objectives: In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. Methods: A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. Results: This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Conclusions: Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH’s strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health. PMID:23552460

Climate change, human health, and biomedical research: analysis of the National Institutes of Health research portfolio.

PubMed

Jessup, Christine M; Balbus, John M; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E; Newton, Sheila A; Reid, Britt C; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P

2013-04-01

According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH's strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health.

Global climate change impacts in the United States

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

This report summarizes the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It is largely based on results of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a and integrates those results wit...

Simulation of climate characteristics and extremes of the Volta Basin using CCLM and RCA regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Darko, Deborah; Adjei, Kwaku A.; Appiah-Adjei, Emmanuel K.; Odai, Samuel N.; Obuobie, Emmanuel; Asmah, Ruby

2018-06-01

The extent to which statistical bias-adjusted outputs of two regional climate models alter the projected change signals for the mean (and extreme) rainfall and temperature over the Volta Basin is evaluated. The outputs from two regional climate models in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Africa (CORDEX-Africa) are bias adjusted using the quantile mapping technique. Annual maxima rainfall and temperature with their 10- and 20-year return values for the present (1981-2010) and future (2051-2080) climates are estimated using extreme value analyses. Moderate extremes are evaluated using extreme indices (viz. percentile-based, duration-based, and intensity-based). Bias adjustment of the original (bias-unadjusted) models improves the reproduction of mean rainfall and temperature for the present climate. However, the bias-adjusted models poorly reproduce the 10- and 20-year return values for rainfall and maximum temperature whereas the extreme indices are reproduced satisfactorily for the present climate. Consequently, projected changes in rainfall and temperature extremes were weak. The bias adjustment results in the reduction of the change signals for the mean rainfall while the mean temperature signals are rather magnified. The projected changes for the original mean climate and extremes are not conserved after bias adjustment with the exception of duration-based extreme indices.

The World Grain Economy and Climate Change to the Year 2000: Implications for Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-01

THE WORLD GRAIN ECONOMY AND CUMATE CHANGE TO THE YEAR 2000: IMPUCATIONS FOR POUCY REPORT ON THE FINAL PHASE OF A CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT CONDUCTED...MODEL...................................... 37 APPENDIX B-A SUMMARY OF CROP YIELDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE TOTHE YR00............33 CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES...114. PROJECTED BASE 2000 YIELDS .................. 1S LIST OF TABLES 1. CLIMATE PARAMETERS BY LATITUDINAL ZONES .. S 2. SOURCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning about Climate Change--The Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially…

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, J.

2006-12-01

The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C-D-C model) to appraise the grain yield change caused by the climatic change. Also the preliminary test on this model has been done. In selection of the appraisal methods, we take the C-D production function model, which has been proved more mature in the economic research, as our fundamental model. Then, we introduce climate index (arid index) to the C-D model to develop one new model. This new model utilizes the climatic change factor in the economical model to appraise how the climatic change influence the grain yield change. The new way of appraise should have the better application prospect. The economy - climate model (The C-D-C model) has been applied on the eight Chinese regions that we divide; it has been proved satisfactory in its feasibility, rationality and the application prospect. So we can provide the theoretical fundamentals for policy-making under the more complex and uncertain climate change. Therefore, we open a new possible channel for the global climate change research moving toward the actual social, economic life.

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

Identifying the world's most climate change vulnerable species: a systematic trait-based assessment of all birds, amphibians and corals.

PubMed

Foden, Wendy B; Butchart, Stuart H M; Stuart, Simon N; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A; Hughes, Adrian F; O'Hanlon, Susannah E; Garnett, Stephen T; Sekercioğlu, Cagan H; Mace, Georgina M

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species' biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world's birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608-851 bird (6-9%), 670-933 amphibian (11-15%), and 47-73 coral species (6-9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts.

Identifying the World's Most Climate Change Vulnerable Species: A Systematic Trait-Based Assessment of all Birds, Amphibians and Corals

PubMed Central

Foden, Wendy B.; Butchart, Stuart H. M.; Stuart, Simon N.; Vié, Jean-Christophe; Akçakaya, H. Resit; Angulo, Ariadne; DeVantier, Lyndon M.; Gutsche, Alexander; Turak, Emre; Cao, Long; Donner, Simon D.; Katariya, Vineet; Bernard, Rodolphe; Holland, Robert A.; Hughes, Adrian F.; O’Hanlon, Susannah E.; Garnett, Stephen T.; Şekercioğlu, Çagan H.; Mace, Georgina M.

2013-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching impacts on biodiversity, including increasing extinction rates. Current approaches to quantifying such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climatic change and largely ignore the biological differences between species that may significantly increase or reduce their vulnerability. To address this, we present a framework for assessing three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, namely sensitivity, exposure and adaptive capacity; this draws on species’ biological traits and their modeled exposure to projected climatic changes. In the largest such assessment to date, we applied this approach to each of the world’s birds, amphibians and corals (16,857 species). The resulting assessments identify the species with greatest relative vulnerability to climate change and the geographic areas in which they are concentrated, including the Amazon basin for amphibians and birds, and the central Indo-west Pacific (Coral Triangle) for corals. We found that high concentration areas for species with traits conferring highest sensitivity and lowest adaptive capacity differ from those of highly exposed species, and we identify areas where exposure-based assessments alone may over or under-estimate climate change impacts. We found that 608–851 bird (6–9%), 670–933 amphibian (11–15%), and 47–73 coral species (6–9%) are both highly climate change vulnerable and already threatened with extinction on the IUCN Red List. The remaining highly climate change vulnerable species represent new priorities for conservation. Fewer species are highly climate change vulnerable under lower IPCC SRES emissions scenarios, indicating that reducing greenhouse emissions will reduce climate change driven extinctions. Our study answers the growing call for a more biologically and ecologically inclusive approach to assessing climate change vulnerability. By facilitating independent assessment of the three dimensions of climate change vulnerability, our approach can be used to devise species and area-specific conservation interventions and indices. The priorities we identify will strengthen global strategies to mitigate climate change impacts. PMID:23950785

The Impact of Carbon Dioxide on Climate.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacDonald, Gordon J.

1979-01-01

Examines the relationship between climatic change and carbon dioxide from the historical perspective; details the contributions of carbon-based fuels to increasing carbon dioxide concentrations; and using global circulation models, discusses the future impact of the heavy reliance of our society on carbon-based fuels on climatic change. (BT)

Climate Change and TESOL: Language, Literacies, and the Creation of Eco-Ethical Consciousness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goulah, Jason

2017-01-01

This article calls on the field of TESOL to respond to the planet's growing climatic and ecological crisis, conceptualizing climate change beyond just standards-based language and content curriculum. Climate change is also "cultural" and "religious," and thus warrants broader consideration in TESOL. Drawing on theories of value…

76 FR 30193 - National Fish, Wildlife, and Plants Climate Adaptation Strategy; Notice of Intent: Request for...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-05-24

... principles and science-based practices--for reducing the negative impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife... develop a draft Strategy. The adverse impacts of climate change transcend political and administrative... climate change. This Strategy will provide a unified approach--reflecting shared principles and science...

Climate-induced change of environmentally defined floristic domains: A conservation based vulnerability framework

Treesearch

Debbie Jewitt; Barend F.N. Erasmus; Peter S. Goodman; Timothy G. O' Connor; William W. Hargrove; Damian M. Maddalena; Ed. T.F. Witkowski

2015-01-01

Global climate change is having marked influences on species distributions, phenology and ecosystem composition and raises questions as to the effectiveness of current conservation strategies. Conservation planning has only recently begun to adequately account for dynamic threats such as climate change. We propose a method to incorporate climate-dynamic environmental...

Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heller, Nicole E.; Kreitler, Jason R.; Ackerly, David; Weiss, Stuart; Recinos, Amanda; Branciforte, Ryan; Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.; Micheli, Elisabeth

2015-01-01

Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change? Some conservation scientists argue that planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species, which shift in response to climate change. Climate is one important abiotic driver of biodiversity patterns, as different climates host different biological communities and genetic pools. We propose conservation networks that capture the full range of climatic diversity in a region will improve the resilience of biotic communities to climate change compared to networks that do not. In this study we used historical and future hydro-climate projections from the high resolution Basin Characterization Model to explore the utility of directly targeting climatic diversity in planning. Using the spatial planning tool, Marxan, we designed conservation networks to capture the diversity of climate types, at the regional and sub-regional scale, and compared them to networks we designed to capture the diversity of vegetation types. By focusing on the Conservation Lands Network (CLN) of the San Francisco Bay Area as a real-world case study, we compared the potential resilience of networks by examining two factors: the range of climate space captured, and climatic stability to 18 future climates, reflecting different emission scenarios and global climate models. We found that the climate-based network planned at the sub-regional scale captured a greater range of climate space and showed higher climatic stability than the vegetation and regional based-networks. At the same time, differences among network scenarios are small relative to the variance in climate stability across global climate models. Across different projected futures, topographically heterogeneous areas consistently show greater climate stability than homogenous areas. The analysis suggests that utilizing high-resolution climate and hydrological data in conservation planning improves the likely resilience of biodiversity to climate change. We used these analyses to suggest new conservation priorities for the San Francisco Bay Area.

Regional Climate Change Hotspots over Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anber, U.

2009-04-01

Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI), is developed based on regional mean precipitation change, mean surface air temperature change, and change in precipitation and temperature interannual variability. The RCCI is a comparative index designed to identify the most responsive regions to climate change, or Hot- Spots. The RCCI is calculated for Seven land regions over North Africa and Arabian region from the latest set of climate change projections by 14 global climates for the A1B, A2 and B1 IPCC emission scenarios. The concept of climate change can be approaches from the viewpoint of vulnerability or from that of climate response. In the former case a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region for which potential climate change impacts on the environment or different activity sectors can be particularly pronounced. In the other case, a Hot-Spot can be defined as a region whose climate is especially responsive to global change. In particular, the characterization of climate change response-based Hot-Spot can provide key information to identify and investigate climate change Hot-Spots based on results from multi-model ensemble of climate change simulations performed by modeling groups from around the world as contributions to the Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). A Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) is defined based on four variables: change in regional mean surface air temperature relative to the global average temperature change ( or Regional Warming Amplification Factor, RWAF ), change in mean regional precipitation ( , of present day value ), change in regional surface air temperature interannual variability ( ,of present day value), change in regional precipitation interannual variability ( , of present day value ). In the definition of the RCCI it is important to include quantities other than mean change because often mean changes are not the only important factors for specific impacts. We thus also include inter annual variability, which is critical for many activity sectors, such as agriculture and water management. The RCCI is calculated for the above mentioned set of global climate change simulations and is inter compared across regions to identify climate change, Hot- Spots, that is regions with the largest values of RCCI. It is important to stress that, as will be seen, the RCCI is a comparative index, that is a small RCCI value does not imply a small absolute change, but only a small climate response compared to other regions. The models used are: CCMA-3-T47 CNRM-CM3 CSIRO-MK3 GFDL-CM2-0 GISS-ER INMCM3 IPSL-CM4 MIROC3-2M MIUB-ECHO-G MPI-ECHAM5 MRI-CGCM2 NCAR-CCSM3 NCAR-PCM1 UKMO-HADCM3 Note that the 3 IPCC emission scenarios, A1B, B1 and A2 almost encompass the entire IPCC scenario range, the A2 being close to the high end of the range, the B1 close to the low end and the A1B lying toward the middle of the range. The model data are obtained from the IPCC site and are interpolated onto a common 1 degree grid to facilitate intercomparison. The RCCI is here defined as in Giorgi (2006), except that the entire yea is devided into two six months periods, D J F M A M and J J A S O N. RCCI=[n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]D...M + [n(∆P)＋n(∆σP)+n(RWAF)+n(∆σT)]J…N (1)

Climate change, coral reef ecosystems, and management options for marine protected areas.

PubMed

Keller, Brian D; Gleason, Daniel F; McLeod, Elizabeth; Woodley, Christa M; Airamé, Satie; Causey, Billy D; Friedlander, Alan M; Grober-Dunsmore, Rikki; Johnson, Johanna E; Miller, Steven L; Steneck, Robert S

2009-12-01

Marine protected areas (MPAs) provide place-based management of marine ecosystems through various degrees and types of protective actions. Habitats such as coral reefs are especially susceptible to degradation resulting from climate change, as evidenced by mass bleaching events over the past two decades. Marine ecosystems are being altered by direct effects of climate change including ocean warming, ocean acidification, rising sea level, changing circulation patterns, increasing severity of storms, and changing freshwater influxes. As impacts of climate change strengthen they may exacerbate effects of existing stressors and require new or modified management approaches; MPA networks are generally accepted as an improvement over individual MPAs to address multiple threats to the marine environment. While MPA networks are considered a potentially effective management approach for conserving marine biodiversity, they should be established in conjunction with other management strategies, such as fisheries regulations and reductions of nutrients and other forms of land-based pollution. Information about interactions between climate change and more "traditional" stressors is limited. MPA managers are faced with high levels of uncertainty about likely outcomes of management actions because climate change impacts have strong interactions with existing stressors, such as land-based sources of pollution, overfishing and destructive fishing practices, invasive species, and diseases. Management options include ameliorating existing stressors, protecting potentially resilient areas, developing networks of MPAs, and integrating climate change into MPA planning, management, and evaluation.

Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

PubMed

Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

2006-08-31

Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.

Teaching Children's Rights and Climate Change with the Support of Act for Climate Web-Based Learning Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gkotzos, Dimitrios

2017-01-01

This article presents an effort to integrate the issues of climate change and children's rights into the Greek primary school curriculum through the use of information and communication technologies (ICTs). The curriculum Act for Climate was developed through the lens of children's rights and with the support of a web-based learning environment…

The Impact of Project-Based Climate Change Learning Experiences on Students' Broad Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeWaters, J.; Powers, S. E.; Dhaniyala, S.

2014-12-01

Evidence-based pedagogical approaches such as project- and inquiry-based techniques have been shown to promote effective learning in science and engineering. The impact of project-based learning experiences on middle school (MS), high school (HS), and undergraduate (UG) students' climate literacy was investigated as part of a NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) project. Project-based modules were developed and taught by MS and HS teachers who participated in climate change education workshops. UG students enrolled in a climate science course completed independent research projects that provided the basis for several of the HS/MS modules. All modules required students to acquire and analyze historical temperature data and future climate predictions, and apply their analysis to the solution of a societal or environmental problem related to our changing climate. Three versions of a quantitative survey were developed and used in a pre-test/post-test research design to help evaluate the project's impact on MS, HS, and UG students' climate literacy, which includes broad climate knowledge as well as affective and behavioral aspects. Content objectives were guided primarily by the 2009 document, Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. All three groups of students made modest but statistically significant cognitive (p<<0.001) and affective (p<0.01) gains; UG students also showed an increase in behavior scores (p=0.001). Results of an ANCOVA showed significant differences in students' cognitive (p<0.001), behavioral (p=0.005) and self-efficacy (p=0.012) outcomes among the 9 participating MS and HS classrooms, where both teacher and module content varied. The presentation will include a description of some key aspects of the project-based curricula developed and used in this research, the development and content of the climate literacy survey, and the interpretation of specific pre/post changes in participating students relative to the content of and approach used in the project-based modules.

Trends in Reports on Climate Change in 2009-2011 in the Korean Press Based on Daily Newspapers' Ownership Structure

PubMed Central

Lee, Jihye; Kim, Hyunsook; Hong, Youngtak; Lee, Weonyoung

2013-01-01

Objectives The mass media play a crucial role in risk communication regarding climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate the trend in journalistic reports on climate change in the daily newspapers of Korea. Methods We selected 9 daily newspapers in Korea, which according to the ABC Association, represented 77% of newspaper circulation, out of a total of 44 Korean daily newspapers. The collected articles were from 2009 to 2011. All of the articles were sorted into the following 8 categories: greenhouse gas, climate change conventions, sea level rise, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis reports, expected damage and effect, use of fossil fuels, global warming, and mitigation or adaptation. A chi-squared test was done on the articles, which were counted and classified into cause, effect, and measurement of climate change according to the newspaper's majority or minority ownership structure. Results From the 9 selected newspapers, the number of articles on climate change by month was greatest in December 2009. Generally, the articles vague about climate change (lack of precise data, negative or skeptical tone, and improper use of terminology) were much more common than the articles presenting accurate knowledge. A statistical difference was found based on ownership structure: the majority-owned newspapers addressed the cause of climate change, while the minority-owned newspapers referred more to climate change measurement. Conclusions Our investigation revealed that generally Korean daily newspapers did not deliver accurate information about climate change. The coverage of the newspapers showed significant differences according to the ownership structure. PMID:23573375

Trends in reports on climate change in 2009-2011 in the Korean press based on daily newspapers' ownership structure.

PubMed

Lee, Jihye; Hong, Yeon-pyo; Kim, Hyunsook; Hong, Youngtak; Lee, Weonyoung

2013-03-01

The mass media play a crucial role in risk communication regarding climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate the trend in journalistic reports on climate change in the daily newspapers of Korea. We selected 9 daily newspapers in Korea, which according to the ABC Association, represented 77% of newspaper circulation, out of a total of 44 Korean daily newspapers. The collected articles were from 2009 to 2011. All of the articles were sorted into the following 8 categories: greenhouse gas, climate change conventions, sea level rise, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis reports, expected damage and effect, use of fossil fuels, global warming, and mitigation or adaptation. A chi-squared test was done on the articles, which were counted and classified into cause, effect, and measurement of climate change according to the newspaper's majority or minority ownership structure. From the 9 selected newspapers, the number of articles on climate change by month was greatest in December 2009. Generally, the articles vague about climate change (lack of precise data, negative or skeptical tone, and improper use of terminology) were much more common than the articles presenting accurate knowledge. A statistical difference was found based on ownership structure: the majority-owned newspapers addressed the cause of climate change, while the minority-owned newspapers referred more to climate change measurement. Our investigation revealed that generally Korean daily newspapers did not deliver accurate information about climate change. The coverage of the newspapers showed significant differences according to the ownership structure.

Parenthood and Worrying About Climate Change: The Limitations of Previous Approaches.

PubMed

Ekholm, Sara; Olofsson, Anna

2017-02-01

The present study considers the correlation between parenthood and worry about the consequences of climate change. Two approaches to gauging people's perceptions of the risks of climate change are compared: the classic approach, which measures risk perception, and the emotion-based approach, which measures feelings toward a risk object. The empirical material is based on a questionnaire-based survey of 3,529 people in Sweden, of whom 1,376 answered, giving a response rate of 39%. The results show that the correlation of parenthood and climate risk is significant when the emotional aspect is raised, but not when respondents were asked to do cognitive estimates of risk. Parenthood proves significant in all three questions that measure feelings, demonstrating that it is a determinant that serves to increase worry about climate change. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; O'Halloran, Kathy A.; Hoffman, Catherine H.

2011-01-01

Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, processes, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to counteract the negative effects of climate change. We began a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest (ONF) in partnership with Olympic National Park (ONP) to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to climate change. The case study began in the summer of 2008 and continued for 1½ years. The case study process involved science-based sensitivity assessments, review of management activities and constraints, and adaptation workshops in each of four focus areas (hydrology and roads, fish, vegetation, and wildlife). The process produced adaptation options for ONF and ONP, and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessment and science-management workshops in adapting to climate change. The case study process provides an example for other national forests, national parks, and natural resource agencies of how federal land management units can collaborate in the initial stages of climate change adaptation. Many of the ideas generated through this process can potentially be applied in other locations and in other agencies

Modeling and assessing international climate financing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Jing; Tang, Lichun; Mohamed, Rayman; Zhu, Qianting; Wang, Zheng

2016-06-01

Climate financing is a key issue in current negotiations on climate protection. This study establishes a climate financing model based on a mechanism in which donor countries set up funds for climate financing and recipient countries use the funds exclusively for carbon emission reduction. The burden-sharing principles are based on GDP, historical emissions, and consumptionbased emissions. Using this model, we develop and analyze a series of scenario simulations, including a financing program negotiated at the Cancun Climate Change Conference (2010) and several subsequent programs. Results show that sustained climate financing can help to combat global climate change. However, the Cancun Agreements are projected to result in a reduction of only 0.01°C in global warming by 2100 compared to the scenario without climate financing. Longer-term climate financing programs should be established to achieve more significant benefits. Our model and simulations also show that climate financing has economic benefits for developing countries. Developed countries will suffer a slight GDP loss in the early stages of climate financing, but the longterm economic growth and the eventual benefits of climate mitigation will compensate for this slight loss. Different burden-sharing principles have very similar effects on global temperature change and economic growth of recipient countries, but they do result in differences in GDP changes for Japan and the FSU. The GDP-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for Japan, while the historical emissions-based principle results in a larger share of financial burden for the FSU. A larger burden share leads to a greater GDP loss.

Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil-mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study.

PubMed

Orwin, Kate H; Stevenson, Bryan A; Smaill, Simeon J; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Dickie, Ian A; Clothier, Brent E; Garrett, Loretta G; van der Weerden, Tony J; Beare, Michael H; Curtin, Denis; de Klein, Cecile A M; Dodd, Michael B; Gentile, Roberta; Hedley, Carolyn; Mullan, Brett; Shepherd, Mark; Wakelin, Steven A; Bell, Nigel; Bowatte, Saman; Davis, Murray R; Dominati, Estelle; O'Callaghan, Maureen; Parfitt, Roger L; Thomas, Steve M

2015-08-01

Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation strategies of local communities in Malawi: experiences of women fish-processing groups in the Lake Chilwa Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørstad, Hanne; Webersik, Christian

2016-12-01

In recent years, research on climate change and human security has received much attention among policy makers and academia alike. Communities in the Global South that rely on an intact resource base and struggle with poverty, existing inequalities and historical injustices will especially be affected by predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. The objective of this article is to better understand under what conditions local communities can adapt to anticipated impacts of climate change. The empirical part of the paper answers the question as to what extent local women engaged in fish processing in the Chilwa Basin in Malawi have experienced climate change and how they are affected by it. The article assesses an adaptation project designed to make those women more resilient to a warmer and more variable climate. The research results show that marketing and improving fish processing as strategies to adapt to climate change have their limitations. The study concludes that livelihood diversification can be a more effective strategy for Malawian women to adapt to a more variable and unpredictable climate rather than exclusively relying on a resource base that is threatened by climate change.

Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season.

PubMed

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-03-01

Climate, climate change and tourism all interact. Part of the public discussion about climate change focusses on the tourism sector, with direct and indirect impacts being of equally high relevance. Climate and tourism are closely linked. Thus, climate is a very decisive factor in choices both of destination and of type of journey (active holidays, wellness, and city tours) in the tourism sector. However, whether choices about destinations or types of trip will alter with climate change is difficult to predict. Future climates can be simulated and projected, and the tendencies of climate parameters can be estimated using global and regional climate models. In this paper, the focus is on climate change in the mountainous regions of southwest Germany - the Black Forest. The Black Forest is one of the low mountain ranges where both winter and summer tourism are vulnerable to climate change due to its southern location; the strongest climatic changes are expected in areas covering the south and southwest of Germany. Moreover, as the choice of destination is highly dependent on good weather, a climatic assessment for tourism is essential. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate climatic changes in mountainous regions during summer, especially for tourism and recreation. The assessment method was based on human-biometeorology as well as tourism-climatologic approaches. Regional climate simulations based on the regional climate model REMO were used for tourism-related climatic analyses. Emission scenarios A1B and B1 were considered for the time period 2021 to 2050, compared to the 30-year base period of 1971-2000, particularly for the warm period of the year, defined here as the months of March-November. In this study, we quantified the frequency, but not the means, of climate parameters. The study results show that global and regional warming is reflected in an increase in annual mean air temperature, especially in autumn. Changes in the spring show a slight negative trend, which is in line with the trend of a decrease in physiologically equivalent temperature as well as in thermal comfort conditions. Due to the rising air temperature, heat stress as well as sultry conditions are projected to become more frequent, affecting human health and recreation, especially at lower lying altitudes. The tops of the mountains and higher elevated areas still have the advantage of offering comfortable climatic conditions.

Biodiversity as a solution to mitigate climate change impacts on the functioning of forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Hisano, Masumi; Searle, Eric B; Chen, Han Y H

2018-02-01

Forest ecosystems are critical to mitigating greenhouse gas emissions through carbon sequestration. However, climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning in both negative and positive ways, and has led to shifts in species/functional diversity and losses in plant species diversity which may impair the positive effects of diversity on ecosystem functioning. Biodiversity may mitigate climate change impacts on (I) biodiversity itself, as more-diverse systems could be more resilient to climate change impacts, and (II) ecosystem functioning through the positive relationship between diversity and ecosystem functioning. By surveying the literature, we examined how climate change has affected forest ecosystem functioning and plant diversity. Based on the biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning (B→EF), we specifically address the potential for biodiversity to mitigate climate change impacts on forest ecosystem functioning. For this purpose, we formulate a concept whereby biodiversity may reduce the negative impacts or enhance the positive impacts of climate change on ecosystem functioning. Further B→EF studies on climate change in natural forests are encouraged to elucidate how biodiversity might influence ecosystem functioning. This may be achieved through the detailed scrutiny of large spatial/long temporal scale data sets, such as long-term forest inventories. Forest management strategies based on B→EF have strong potential for augmenting the effectiveness of the roles of forests in the mitigation of climate change impacts on ecosystem functioning. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Probabilistic Integrated Assessment of ``Dangerous'' Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Schneider, Stephen H.

2004-04-01

Climate policy decisions are being made despite layers of uncertainty. Such decisions directly influence the potential for ``dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.'' We mapped a metric for this concept, based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment of climate impacts, onto probability distributions of future climate change produced from uncertainty in key parameters of the coupled social-natural system-climate sensitivity, climate damages, and discount rate. Analyses with a simple integrated assessment model found that, under midrange assumptions, endogenously calculated, optimal climate policy controls can reduce the probability of dangerous anthropogenic interference from ~45% under minimal controls to near zero.

Come rain or shine? Public expectation on local weather change and differential effects on climate change attitude.

PubMed

Lo, Alex Y; Jim, C Y

2015-11-01

Tailored messages are instrumental to climate change communication. Information about the global threat can be 'localised' by demonstrating its linkage with local events. This research ascertains the relationship between climate change attitude and perception of local weather, based on a survey involving 800 Hong Kong citizens. Results indicate that concerns about climate change increase with expectations about the likelihood and impacts of local weather change. Climate change believers attend to all three types of adverse weather events, namely, temperature rises, tropical cyclones and prolonged rains. Climate scepticism, however, is not associated with expectation about prolonged rains. Differential spatial orientations are a possible reason. Global climate change is an unprecedented and distant threat, whereas local rain is a more familiar and localised weather event. Global climate change should be articulated in terms that respect local concerns. Localised framing may be particularly effective for engaging individuals holding positive views about climate change science. © The Author(s) 2014.

Patterns and biases of climate change threats in the IUCN Red List.

PubMed

Trull, Nicholas; Böhm, Monika; Carr, Jamie

2018-02-01

International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments rely on published data and expert inputs, and biases can be introduced where underlying definitions and concepts are ambiguous. Consideration of climate change threat is no exception, and recently numerous approaches to assessing the threat of climate change to species have been developed. We explored IUCN Red List assessments of amphibians and birds to determine whether species listed as threatened by climate change display distinct patterns in terms of habitat occupied and additional nonclimatic threats faced. We compared IUCN Red List data with a published data set of species' biological and ecological traits believed to infer high vulnerability to climate change and determined whether distributions of climate change-threatened species on the IUCN Red List concur with those of climate change-threatened species identified with the trait-based approach and whether species possessing these traits are more likely to have climate change listed as a threat on the IUCN Red List. Species in some ecosystems (e.g., grassland, shrubland) and subject to particular threats (e.g., invasive species) were more likely to have climate change as a listed threat. Geographical patterns of climate change-threatened amphibians and birds on the IUCN Red List were incongruent with patterns of global species richness and patterns identified using trait-based approaches. Certain traits were linked to increases or decreases in the likelihood of a species being threatened by climate change. Broad temperature tolerance of a species was consistently related to an increased likelihood of climate change threat, indicating counterintuitive relationships in IUCN assessments. To improve the robustness of species assessments of the vulnerability or extinction risk associated with climate change, we suggest IUCN adopt a more cohesive approach whereby specific traits highlighted by our results are considered in Red List assessments. To achieve this and to strengthen the climate change-vulnerability assessments approach, it is necessary to identify and implement logical avenues for further research into traits that make species vulnerable to climate change (including population-level threats). © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is therefore imperative to improve our understanding on how climate change may induce a chain of impacts. Our study is a first step toward this goal by mapping out climate risks and their cause-effect relationships based on current literature.

Deducing Climatic Elasticity to Assess Projected Climate Change Impacts on Streamflow Change across China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jianyu; Zhang, Qiang; Zhang, Yongqiang; Chen, Xi; Li, Jianfeng; Aryal, Santosh K.

2017-10-01

Climatic elasticity has been widely applied to assess streamflow responses to climate changes. To fully assess impacts of climate under global warming on streamflow and reduce the error and uncertainty from various control variables, we develop a four-parameter (precipitation, catchment characteristics n, and maximum and minimum temperatures) climatic elasticity method named PnT, based on the widely used Budyko framework and simplified Makkink equation. We use this method to carry out the first comprehensive evaluation of the streamflow response to potential climate change for 372 widely spread catchments in China. The PnT climatic elasticity was first evaluated for a period 1980-2000, and then used to evaluate streamflow change response to climate change based on 12 global climate models under Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios. The results show that (1) the PnT climatic elasticity method is reliable; (2) projected increasing streamflow takes place in more than 60% of the selected catchments, with mean increments of 9% and 15.4% under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 respectively; and (3) uncertainties in the projected streamflow are considerable in several regions, such as the Pearl River and Yellow River, with more than 40% of the selected catchments showing inconsistent change directions. Our results can help Chinese policy makers to manage and plan water resources more effectively, and the PnT climatic elasticity should be applied to other parts of the world.

A risk-based approach to evaluating wildlife demographics for management in a changing climate: A case study of the Lewis's Woodpecker

Treesearch

Erin Towler; Victoria A. Saab; Richard S. Sojda; Katherine Dickinson; Cindy L. Bruyere; Karen R. Newlon

2012-01-01

Given the projected threat that climate change poses to biodiversity, the need for proactive response efforts is clear. However, integrating uncertain climate change information into conservation planning is challenging, and more explicit guidance is needed. To this end, this article provides a specific example of how a risk-based approach can be used to incorporate a...

Connecting Spatial Literacy and Climate Literacy Using a Place-Based GIS Approach in a Collaborative Online Educational Setting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, R.; Boger, R. A.; Mandryk, C. A.

2014-12-01

On-line learning is already revolutionizing higher education, and emerging cloud-based Geographic Information System (GIS) capabilities are poised to revolutionize the acquisition and sharing of spatial knowledge in a variety of fields. In this project, we deployed ESRI's ArcGIS Online in an on-line course environment to provide a place-based quantitative exploration of the impacts of environmental changes specifically related to climate change. As spatial thinking is not necessarily transferrable from one domain to another, we hypothesized that combining spatial literacy and climate change domain knowledge would transform student conceptions and mental models of climate change in measurable ways. To this end, we adapted and employed existing instruments for pre- post testing of general pattern recognition, interpretation, and spatial transformational skills, as well as climate system content knowledge and attitudes. A collaborative on-line course platform offered to students from University of Nebraska, Lincoln and from City College of New York (CUNY) colleges, Brooklyn and Lehman, brought to the discussion distinct urban and rural perspectives, which were the basis of place-based climate, water and food explorations in the course. The course has been offered 3 times in a shared LMS over the past 3 years. Participants in the most recent iteration of the course demonstrated statistically significant improvements in spatial skills, but they did not show the expected statistically significant improvement overall in climate knowledge that we see in other online courses where climate change literacy is the sole focus of the course. Ongoing research by our team shows strong correlation between active peer engagement in online discussions and student learning outcomes. Student-initiated discussions in the GIS-based climate change courses revealed a shift away from discussing the climate change science and a focus on technology and analyzing the spatial products created using GIS. As we improve the effectiveness of this course, we will be developing interventions in the discussion board activities that we hypothesize will increase the effectiveness of climate knowledge construction in future iterations.

Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniveton, Dominic R.; Smith, Christopher D.; Black, Richard

2012-06-01

Fears of the movement of large numbers of people as a result of changes in the environment were first voiced in the 1980s (ref. ). Nearly thirty years later the numbers likely to migrate as a result of the impacts of climate change are still, at best, guesswork. Owing to the high prevalence of rainfed agriculture, many livelihoods in sub-Saharan African drylands are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. One commonly adopted response strategy used by populations to deal with the resulting livelihood stress is migration. Here, we use an agent-based model developed around the theory of planned behaviour to explore how climate and demographic change, defined by the ENSEMBLES project and the United Nations Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, combine to influence migration within and from Burkina Faso. The emergent migration patterns modelled support framing the nexus of climate change and migration as a complex adaptive system. Using this conceptual framework, we show that the extent of climate-change-related migration is likely to be highly nonlinear and the extent of this nonlinearity is dependent on population growth; therefore supporting migration policy interventions based on both demographic and climate change adaptation.

Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soteriades, A. D.; Murray-Rust, D.; Trabucco, A.; Metzger, M. J.

2017-08-01

Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Beyond Knowledge: Service Learning and Local Climate Change Research Engagement Activities that Foster Action and Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Low, R.; Mandryk, C.; Gosselin, D. C.; Haney, C.

2013-12-01

Climate change engagement requires individuals to understand an abstract and complex topic and realize the profound implications of climate change for their families and local community. In recent years federal agencies have spent millions of dollars on climate change education to prepare a nation for a warming future. The majority of these education efforts are based on a knowledge deficit model. In this view 'educate' means 'provide information'. However cognitive and behavioral research and current action demonstrate that information alone is not enough; knowledge does not necessarily lead to action. Educators are speaking to deaf ears if we rely on passive and abstract information transfer and neglect more persuasive and affective approaches to communication. When climate change is presented abstractly as something that happens in the future to people, environments, animals somewhere else it is easy to discount. People employ two separate systems for information processing: analytical-rational and intuitive-experiential Authentic local research experiences that engage both analytical and experiential information processing systems not only help individuals understand the abstraction of climate change in a concrete and personally experienced manner, but are more likely to influence behavior. Two on-line, graduate-level courses offered within University of Nebraska's Masters of Applied Science program provide opportunities for participants to engage in authentic inquiry based studies climate change's local impacts, and work with K-12 learners in promoting the scientific awareness and behavioral changes that mitigate against the negative impacts of a changing climate. The courses are specifically designed to improve middle and high school (grades 6-12) teachers' content knowledge of climate processes and climate change science in the context of their own community. Both courses provide data-rich, investigative science experiences in a distributed digital environment and support teachers in the creation of lessons and units that promote both inquiry science and service learning in the community. Course participants connect the dots from their newly acquired theoretical science knowledge to concrete examples of change taking place locally, and see the value of promoting awareness as well as behavioral changes that contribute to adaptation and mitigation of local climate change impacts. We describe the assessments used and the research outcomes associated with NRES 832, Human Dimensions of Climate Change, where participants conduct archival research to create a climate change chronicle for their community, and NRES 830 Climate Research Applications, where teachers lead and evaluate the impacts of student-designed service learning activities as a capstone project for a unit on climate change. We also showcase community-based initiatives resulting from this work that seed the behavioral changes we need to live sustainably in our communities and on our planet.

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Anticipating the impacts of climate change on crop yields is critical for assessing future food security. Process-based crop simulation models are the most commonly used tools in such assessments. Analysis of uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts on future climate change...

Public health impacts of climate change in Nepal.

PubMed

Joshi, H D; Dhimal, B; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L

2011-04-01

Climate change is a global issue in this century which has challenged the survival of living creatures affecting the life supporting systems of the earth: atmosphere, hydrosphere and lithosphere. Scientists have reached in a consensus that climate change is happening. The anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases is responsible for global warming and therefore climate change. Climate change may directly or indirectly affect human health through a range of pathways related to temperature and precipitation. The aim of this article is to share knowledge on how climate change can affect public health in Nepal based on scientific evidence from global studies and experience gained locally. In this review attempt has been made to critically analyze the scientific studies as well as policy documents of Nepalese Government and shed light on public health impact of climate change in the context of Nepal. Detailed scientific study is recommended to discern impact of climate change on public health problems in Nepal.

Experimentation with a Socio-Constructivist Process for Climate Change Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pruneau, Diane; Gravel, Helene; Bourque, Wendy; Langis, Joanne

2003-01-01

A socio-constructivist and experiential process for climate change education was experimented within two coastal communities of Eastern Canada with 39 students 13 and 14 years of age. The pedagogical process, based on local observation of climate change, Duit's conceptual change theory (1999) and experiential learning, aimed for the improvement of…

Raising Awareness about Climate Change in Pacific Communities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McNamara, Karen Elizabeth

2013-01-01

Community-based climate change projects in the Pacific typically seek to raise the awareness of locals about the consequences of climate change and changing weather patterns. A key concern is that such activities might be done in an ad hoc manner, with little consideration of local relevance, audience and the integration of local experiences and…

Indicators of climate change in Idaho: An assessment framework for coupling biophysical change and social perception

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is well documented at the global scale, but local and regional changes are not as well understood. Finer, local-to-regional scale information is needed for creating specific, place-based planning and adaption efforts. Here we detail the development of an indicator-focused climate chan...

A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P

2016-10-20

In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios. PMID:28257501

Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Ogden, Nicholas H; Semenza, Jan C; Woodward, Alistair

2017-08-07

Detection and attribution of health impacts caused by climate change uses formal methods to determine a ) whether the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has changed, and b ) the extent to which that change could be attributed to climate change. There have been limited efforts to undertake detection and attribution analyses in health. Our goal was to show a range of approaches for conducting detection and attribution analyses. Case studies for heatwaves, Lyme disease in Canada, and Vibrio emergence in northern Europe highlight evidence that climate change is adversely affecting human health. Changes in rates and geographic distribution of adverse health outcomes were detected, and, in each instance, a proportion of the observed changes could, in our judgment, be attributed to changes in weather patterns associated with climate change. The results of detection and attribution studies can inform evidence-based risk management to reduce current, and plan for future, changes in health risks associated with climate change. Gaining a better understanding of the size, timing, and distribution of the climate change burden of disease and injury requires reliable long-term data sets, more knowledge about the factors that confound and modify the effects of climate on health, and refinement of analytic techniques for detection and attribution. At the same time, significant advances are possible in the absence of complete data and statistical certainty: there is a place for well-informed judgments, based on understanding of underlying processes and matching of patterns of health, climate, and other determinants of human well-being. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1509.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Talbert, Marian; Miller, Brian W.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2017-01-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive – such as means or extremes – can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the ‘model space’ approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

2017-07-01

Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; Richardson, Jonathan L; Freidenfelds, Nicole A

2014-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data.

Plasticity and genetic adaptation mediate amphibian and reptile responses to climate change

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C; Richardson, Jonathan L; Freidenfelds, Nicole A

2014-01-01

Phenotypic plasticity and genetic adaptation are predicted to mitigate some of the negative biotic consequences of climate change. Here, we evaluate evidence for plastic and evolutionary responses to climate variation in amphibians and reptiles via a literature review and meta-analysis. We included studies that either document phenotypic changes through time or space. Plasticity had a clear and ubiquitous role in promoting phenotypic changes in response to climate variation. For adaptive evolution, we found no direct evidence for evolution of amphibians or reptiles in response to climate change over time. However, we found many studies that documented adaptive responses to climate along spatial gradients. Plasticity provided a mixture of adaptive and maladaptive responses to climate change, highlighting that plasticity frequently, but not always, could ameliorate climate change. Based on our review, we advocate for more experiments that survey genetic changes through time in response to climate change. Overall, plastic and genetic variation in amphibians and reptiles could buffer some of the formidable threats from climate change, but large uncertainties remain owing to limited data. PMID:24454550

A Modified Formula of the First-order Approximation for Assessing the Contribution of Climate Change to Runoff Based on the Budyko Hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, W.; Ning, T.; Han, X.

2015-12-01

The climate elasticity based on the Budyko curves has been widely used to evaluate the hydrological responses to climate change. The Mezentsev-Choudhury-Yang formula is one of the representative analytical equations for Budyko curves. Previous researches mostly used the variation of runoff (R) caused by the changes of annual precipitation (P) and potential evapotranspiration (ET0) as the hydrological response to climate change and evaluated it by a first-order approximation in a form of total differential, the major components of which include the partial derivatives of R to P and ET0, as well as climate elasticity on this basis. Based on analytic derivation and the characteristics of Budyko curves, this study proposed a modified formula of the first-order approximation to reduce the errors from the approximation. In the calculation of partial derivatives and climate elasticity, the values of P and ET0 were taken to the sum of their base values and half increments, respectively. The calculation was applied in 33 catchments of the Hai River basin in China and the results showed that the mean absolute value of relative error of approximated runoff change decreased from 8.4% to 0.4% and the maximum value, from 23.4% to 1.3%. Given the variation values of P, ET0 and the controlling parameter (n), the modified formula can exactly quantify the contributions of climate fluctuation and underlying surface change to runoff. Taking the Murray-Darling basin in Australia as an example of the contribution calculated by the modified formula, the reductions of mean annual runoff caused by changes of P, ET0 and n from 1895-1996 to 1997-2006 were 2.6, 0.6 and 2.9 mm, respectively, and the sum of them was 6.1 mm, which was completely consistent with the observed runoff. The modified formula of the first-order approximation proposed in this study can be not only used to assess the contributions of climate change to the runoff, but also widely used to analyze the effects of similar issues based on a certain functional relationship in hydrological and climate changes.

Estimates of runoff using water-balance and atmospheric general circulation models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolock, D.M.; McCabe, G.J.

1999-01-01

The effects of potential climate change on mean annual runoff in the conterminous United States (U.S.) are examined using a simple water-balance model and output from two atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs). The two GCMs are from the Canadian Centre for Climate Prediction and Analysis (CCC) and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research (HAD). In general, the CCC GCM climate results in decreases in runoff for the conterminous U.S., and the HAD GCM climate produces increases in runoff. These estimated changes in runoff primarily are the result of estimated changes in precipitation. The changes in mean annual runoff, however, mostly are smaller than the decade-to-decade variability in GCM-based mean annual runoff and errors in GCM-based runoff. The differences in simulated runoff between the two GCMs, together with decade-to-decade variability and errors in GCM-based runoff, cause the estimates of changes in runoff to be uncertain and unreliable.

EO based Agro-ecosystem approach for climate change adaptation in enhancing the crop production efficiency in the Indo-gangetic plains of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Suraj

This study develops a spatial mapping of agro-ecological zones based on earth observation model using MODIS regional dataset as a tool to guide key areas of cropping system and targeting to climate change strategies. This tool applies to the Indo-gangetic Plains of north India to target the domains of bio-physical characteristics and socio-economics with respect to changing climate in the region. It derive on secondary data for spatially-explicit variables at the state/district level, which serve as indicators of climate variability based on sustainable livelihood approach, natural, social and human. The study details the methodology used and generates the spatial climate risk maps for composite indicators of livelihood and vulnerability index in the region.

"Global warming, continental drying? Interpreting projected aridity changes over land under climate change"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Alexis

2017-04-01

In recent years, a number of studies have suggested that, as climate warms, the land surface will globally become more arid. Such results usually rely on drought or aridity diagnostics, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the Aridity Index (ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration, PET), applied to climate model projections of surface climate. From a global perspective, the projected widespread drying of the land surface is generally interpreted as the result of the dominant, ubiquitous warming-induced PET increase, which overwhelms the slight overall precipitation increase projected over land. However, several lines of evidence, based on (paleo)observations and climate model projections, raise questions regarding this interpretation of terrestrial climate change. In this talk, I will review elements of the literature supporting these different perspectives, and will present recent results based on CMIP5 climate model projections regarding changes in aridity over land that shed some light on this discussion. Central to the interpretation of projected land aridity changes is the understanding of projected PET trends over land and their link with changes in other variables of the terrestrial water cycle (ET, soil moisture) and surface climate in the context of the coupled land-atmosphere system.

Improving the role of vulnerability assessments In decision support for effective climate adaptation

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Constance I. Millar

2014-01-01

Vulnerability assessments (VA) have been proposed as an initial step in a process to develop and implement adaptation management for climate change in forest ecosystems. Scientific understanding of the effects of climate change is an ever-accumulating knowledge base. Synthesizing information from this knowledge base in the context of our understanding of ecosystem...

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

PubMed

Xie, Gisselle Yang; Olson, Deanna H; Blaustein, Andrew R

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

2015-12-01

As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

Using Bayesian networks to assess the vulnerability of Hawaiian terrestrial biota to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortini, L.; Jacobi, J.; Price, J.; Vorsino, A.; Paxton, E.; Amidon, F.; 'Ohukani'ohi'a Gon, S., III; Koob, G.; Brink, K.; Burgett, J.; Miller, S.

2012-12-01

As the effects of climate change on individual species become increasingly apparent, there is a clear need for effective adaptation planning to prevent an increase in species extinctions worldwide. Given the limited understanding of species responses to climate change, vulnerability assessments and species distribution models (SDMs) have been two common tools used to jump-start climate change adaptation efforts. However, although these two approaches generally serve the same purpose of understanding species future responses to climate change, they have rarely mixed. In collaboration with research and management partners from federal, state and non-profit organizations, we are conducting a climate change vulnerability assessment for hundreds of plant and forest bird species of the Main Hawaiian Islands. This assessment is the first to comprehensively consider the potential threats of climate change to a significant portion of Hawaii's fauna and flora (over one thousand species considered) and thus fills a critical gap defined by natural resource scientists and managers in the region. We have devised a flexible approach that effectively integrates species distribution models into a vulnerability assessment framework that can be easily updated with improved models and data. This tailors our assessment approach to the Pacific Island reality of often limited and fragmented information on species and large future climate uncertainties, This vulnerability assessment is based on a Bayesian network-based approach that integrates multiple landscape (e.g., topographic diversity, dispersal barriers), species trait (e.g., generation length, fecundity) and expert-knowledge based information (e.g., capacity to colonize restored habitat) relevant to long-term persistence of species under climate change. Our presentation will highlight some of the results from our assessment but will mainly focus on the utility of the flexible approach we have developed and its potential application in other settings.

Global Warming: Discussion for EOS Science Writers Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E

1999-01-01

The existence of global warming this century is no longer an issue of scientific debate. But there are many important questions about the nature and causes of long-term climate change, th roles of nature and human-made climate forcings and unforced (chaotic) climate variability, the practical impacts of climate change, and what, if anything, should be done to reduce global warming, Global warming is not a uniform increase of temperature, but rather involves at complex geographically varying climate change. Understanding of global warming will require improved observations of climate change itself and the forcing factors that can lead to climate change. The NASA Terra mission and other NASA Earth Science missions will provide key measurement of climate change and climate forcings. The strategy to develop an understanding of the causes and predictability of long-term climate change must be based on combination of observations with models and analysis. The upcoming NASA missions will make important contributions to the required observations.

Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.

PubMed

Segurado, Pedro; Branco, Paulo; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, M Teresa

2016-08-15

Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative effects on fish populations and assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of future climate change on river discharge based on hydrological inference: A case study of the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Han, Jingcheng; Fan, Yurui

2016-04-01

Over the recent years, climate change impacts have been increasingly studied at the watershed scale. However, the impact assessment is strongly dependent upon the performance of the climatic and hydrological models. This study developed a two-step method to assess climate change impacts on water resources based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and a Hydrological Inference Model (HIM). PRECIS runs provided future temperature and precipitation projections for the watershed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The HIM based on stepwise cluster analysis is developed to imitate the complex nonlinear relationships between climate input variables and targeted hydrological variables. Its robust mathematical structure and flexibility in predictor selection makes it a desirable tool for fully utilizing various climate modeling outputs. Although PRECIS and HIM cannot fully cover the uncertainties in hydro-climate modeling, they could provide efficient decision support for investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. The proposed method is applied to the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model performance is demonstrated with comparison to observation data from the watershed during the period 1972-2006. Future river discharge intervals that accommodate uncertainties in hydro-climatic modeling are presented and future river discharge variations are analyzed. The results indicate that even though the total annual precipitation would not change significantly in the future, the inter-annual distribution is very likely to be altered. The water availability is expected to increase in Winter while it is very likely to decrease in Summer over the Grand River Watershed, and adaptation strategies would be necessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Applying simple water-energy balance frameworks to predict the climate sensitivity of streamflow over the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2012-08-01

The prediction of climate effects on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources is one of the major research questions in hydrology. Conceptual water-energy balance models can be used to gain a first order estimate of how long-term average streamflow is changing with a change in water and energy supply. A common framework for investigation of this question is based on the Budyko hypothesis, which links hydrological response to aridity. Recently, Renner et al. (2012) introduced the climate change impact hypothesis (CCUW), which is based on the assumption that the total efficiency of the catchment ecosystem to use the available water and energy for actual evapotranspiration remains constant even under climate changes. Here, we confront the climate sensitivity approaches (the Budyko approach of Roderick and Farquhar, 2011, and the CCUW) with data of more than 400 basins distributed over the continental United States. We first estimate the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in precipitation using long-term average data of the period 1949 to 2003. This provides a hydro-climatic status of the respective basins as well as their expected proportional effect to changes in climate. Next, we test the ability of both approaches to predict climate impacts on streamflow by splitting the data into two periods. We (i) analyse the long-term average changes in hydro-climatology and (ii) derive a statistical classification of potential climate and basin change impacts based on the significance of observed changes in runoff, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Then we (iii) use the different climate sensitivity methods to predict the change in streamflow given the observed changes in water and energy supply and (iv) evaluate the predictions by (v) using the statistical classification scheme and (vi) a conceptual approach to separate the impacts of changes in climate from basin characteristics change on streamflow. This allows us to evaluate the observed changes in streamflow as well as to assess the impact of basin changes on the validity of climate sensitivity approaches. The apparent increase of streamflow of the majority of basins in the US is dominated by an increase in precipitation. It is further evident that impacts of changes in basin characteristics appear simultaneously with climate changes. There are coherent spatial patterns with catchments where basin changes compensate for climatic changes being dominant in the western and central parts of the US. A hot spot of basin changes leading to excessive runoff is found within the US Midwest. The impact of basin changes on the prediction is large and can be twice as much as the observed change signal. Although the CCUW and the Budyko approach yield similar predictions for most basins, the data of water-limited basins support the Budyko framework rather than the CCUW approach, which is known to be invalid under limiting climatic conditions.

How much should we know about energy to better implement climate change education?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva-Send, N.; Anders, S.

2011-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change requires us to understand complex and multidisciplinary aspects of climate science. But without also grasping the connection between our lifestyles, behavior, and energy use, it will be difficult for many of us to make changes to contribute to climate change mitigation and energy conservation. A deeper understanding of the energy-climate relationship related to our behavior is thus warranted because, as the internet-based EnergyLiteracy.org points out, albeit within a different but related context of national security and development, "The vast majority of Americans simply don't adequately understand the magnitude and urgency of our national energy crisis ..." and "That lack of understanding deprives our democracy of the political will that must be generated in order to adequately address...." these issues. Our NSF Climate Change Education Program Project, the San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership (SDRCEP), has as its overarching aim to inform citizens to make balanced decisions based on climate change and energy literacy. The project targets a selected group of 30 key influential persons in the region, and their audiences, representing, for example, the banking sector, the construction industry, the health sector, and commercial real estate. Interviews carried out so far suggest that the connection between climate change and energy use is not easily made. On the other hand, the interviews indicate that a connection is easily made, in this region, between climate change and water availability. Therefore, the purpose of this presentation is to discuss what specific knowledge about personal and societal energy use might be useful to (a) inform and empower key decision-makers responsible for energy-use decisions that significantly affect our lives in the next decades, and (b) empower people to contribute to reducing the impacts of climate change through behavioral or even life-style changes.

Sixth-Grade Students' Progress in Understanding the Mechanisms of Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Visintainer, Tammie; Linn, Marcia

2015-04-01

Developing solutions for complex issues such as global climate change requires an understanding of the mechanisms involved. This study reports on the impact of a technology-enhanced unit designed to improve understanding of global climate change, its mechanisms, and their relationship to everyday energy use. Global Climate Change, implemented in the Web-based Inquiry Science Environment (WISE), engages sixth-grade students in conducting virtual investigations using NetLogo models to foster an understanding of core mechanisms including the greenhouse effect. Students then test how the greenhouse effect is enhanced by everyday energy use. This study draws on three data sources: (1) pre- and post-unit interviews, (2) analysis of embedded assessments following virtual investigations, and (3) contrasting cases of two students (normative vs. non-normative understanding of the greenhouse effect). Results show the value of using virtual investigations for teaching the mechanisms associated with global climate change. Interviews document that students hold a wide range of ideas about the mechanisms driving global climate change. Investigations with models help students use evidence-based reasoning to distinguish their ideas. Results show that understanding the greenhouse effect offers a foundation for building connections between everyday energy use and increases in global temperature. An impediment to establishing coherent understanding was the persistence of an alternative conception about ozone as an explanation for climate change. These findings illustrate the need for regular revision of curriculum based on classroom trials. We discuss key design features of models and instructional revisions that can transform the teaching and learning of global climate change.

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, July 1, 1994--July 31, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, P.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.

1995-07-21

The objective of this research is to assembly and analyze instrumental climate data and to develop and apply climate models as a basis for detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change, and validation of General Circulation Models. In addition to changes due to variations in anthropogenic forcing, including greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the anthropogenic effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics.more » To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided by a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to coupled atmosphere ocean General Circulation Models. These analyses are oriented towards obtaining early evidence of anthropogenic climatic change that would lead either to confirmation, rejection or modification of model projections, and towards the statistical validation of General Circulation Model control runs and perturbation experiments.« less

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

PubMed

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-02-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

Linking population, fertility, and family planning with adaptation to climate change: perspectives from Ethiopia.

PubMed

Rovin, Kimberly; Hardee, Karen; Kidanu, Aklilu

2013-09-01

Global climate change is felt disproportionately in the world's most economically disadvantaged countries. As adaption to an evolving climate becomes increasingly salient on national and global scales, it is important to assess how people at the local-level are already coping with changes. Understanding local responses to climate change is essential for helping countries to construct strategies to bolster resilience to current and future effects. This qualitative research investigated responses to climate change in Ethiopia; specifically, how communities react to and cope with climate variation, which groups are most vulnerable, and the role of family planning in increasing resilience. Participants were highly aware of changing climate effects, impacts of rapid population growth, and the need for increased access to voluntary family planning. Identification of family planning as an important adaptation strategy supports the inclusion of rights-based voluntary family planning and reproductive health into local and national climate change adaptation plans.

A Framework for Addressing Skeptics' Claims Using Evidence-Based Argumentation: Lessons Learned from Educational Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lambert, J. L.; Bleicher, R. E.; Edwards, A.; Henderson, A.

2012-12-01

In science education, climate change is an issue that is especially useful for teaching concepts spanning several fields of science, as well the nature and practices of science. In response, we are developing a NASA-funded curriculum, titled Climate Science Investigations (CSI): South Florida, that teaches high school and first-year undergraduate level students how to analyze and use scientific data answer questions about climate change. To create an effective curriculum, we integrated lessons learned from our educational research conducted within our elementary science methods courses (Lambert, Lindgren, & Bleicher, 2012). For the past few years, we have been integrating climate science in our courses as a way to teach standards across several science disciplines and assessing our preservice teachers' gains in knowledge over the semesters. More recently, given the media attention and reports on the public's shift in opinion toward being more skeptical (Kellstedt, Zahran, & Vedlitz, 2008; Washington & Cook, 2011), we have assessed our students' perceptions about climate change and implemented strategies to help students use evidence-based scientific argumentation to address common claims of climate skeptics. In our elementary science methods courses, we framed climate change as a crosscutting theme, as well as a core idea, in the Next Generation Science Standards. We proposed that the issue and science of climate change would help preservice teachers not only become more interested in the topic, but also be more prepared to teach core science concepts spanning several disciplines (physical, life, and earth sciences). We also thought that highlighting the "practice of scientific inquiry" by teaching students to develop evidence-based arguments would help the preservice teachers become more analytical and able to differentiate scientific evidence from opinions, which could ultimately influence their perceptions on climate change. Lessons learned from our preservice teachers' conceptions and perceptions about climate change, as well as the difficulties in engaging in evidence-based argumentation, have informed and enhanced the framework for development of the CSI: South Florida curriculum. The modules are sequenced according to the proposed learning progression. First, students are introduced to the nature of science and Earth's energy balance. Students then investigate the temporal and spatial temperature data to answer the question of whether Earth is warming. Students also compare natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change, investigate the various observed and projected consequences of climate change in the fourth module, and examine ways to mitigate the effects of and adapt to climate change. Finally, students learn how to refute skeptics' claims by providing counter evidence and reasoning of why the skeptics' claim is not the appropriate explanation. This paper describes our conceptual framework for teaching students how to address the skeptics' claims using the content learned in the CSI: South Florida curriculum and evidence-based argumentation.

Recent Challenges Facing US Government Climate Science Access and Application

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldman, G. T.; Carter, J. M.; Licker, R.

2017-12-01

Climate scientists have long faced politicization of their work, especially those working within the US federal government. However, political interference in federal government climate change science has escalated in the current political era with efforts by political actors to undermine and disrupt infrastructure supporting climate science. This has included funding changes, decreased access to climate science information on federal agency websites, restrictions on media access to scientific experts within the government, and rolling back of science-based policies designed to incorporate and respond to climate science findings. What are the impacts of such changes for both the climate science community and the broader public? What can be done to ensure that access to and application of climate change-related research to policy decisions continues? We will summarize and analyze the state of climate change research and application in the US government. The impacts of political interference in climate change science as well as opportunities the scientific community has to support climate science in the US government, will be discussed.

Spatial variability of climate change impacts on yield of rice and wheat in the Indian Ganga Basin.

PubMed

Mishra, Ashok; Singh, R; Raghuwanshi, N S; Chatterjee, C; Froebrich, Jochen

2013-12-01

Indian Ganga Basin (IGB), one of the most densely populated areas in the world, is facing a significant threat to food grain production, besides increased yield gap between actual and potential production, due to climate change. We have analyzed the spatial variability of climate change impacts on rice and wheat yields at three different locations representing the upper, middle and lower IGB. The DSSAT model is used to simulate the effects of climate variability and climate change on rice and wheat yields by analyzing: (i) spatial crop yield response to current climate, and (ii) impact of a changing climate as projected by two regional climate models, REMO and HadRM3, based on SRES A1B emission scenarios for the period 2011-2040. Results for current climate demonstrate a significant gap between actual and potential yield for upper, middle and lower IGB stations. The analysis based on RCM projections shows that during 2011-2040, the largest reduction in rice and wheat yields will occur in the upper IGB (reduction of potential rice and wheat yield respectively by 43.2% and 20.9% by REMO, and 24.8% and 17.2% by HadRM3). In the lower IGB, however, contrasting results are obtained, with HadRM3 based projections showing an increase in the potential rice and wheat yields, whereas, REMO based projections show decreased potential yields. We discuss the influence of agro-climatic factors; variation in temperature, length of maturity period and leaf area index which are responsible for modeled spatial variability in crop yield response within the IGB. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and occurrence of diarrheal diseases: evolving facts from Nepal.

PubMed

Bhandari, G P; Gurung, S; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L

2012-09-01

Climate change is becoming huge threat to health especially for those from developing countries. Diarrhea as one of the major diseases linked with changing climate. This study has been carried out to assess the relationship between climatic variables, and malaria and to find out the range of non-climatic factors that can confound the relationship of climate change and human health. It is a Retrospective study where data of past ten years relating to climate and disease (diarrhea) variable were analyzed. The study conducted trend analysis based on correlation. The climate related data were obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. Time Series analysis was also being conducted. The trend of number of yearly cases of diarrhea has been increasing from 1998 to 2001 after which the cases remain constant till 2006.The climate types in Jhapa vary from humid to per-humid based on the moisture index and Mega-thermal based on thermal efficiency. The mean annual temperature is increasing at an average of 0.04 °C/year with maximum temperature increasing faster than the minimum temperature. The annual total rainfall of Jhapa is decreasing at an average rate of -7.1 mm/year. Statistically significant correlation between diarrheal cases occurrence and temperature and rainfall has been observed. However, climate variables were not the significant predictors of diarrheal occurrence. The association among climate variables and diarrheal disease occurrence cannot be neglected which has been showed by this study. Further prospective longitudinal study adjusting influence of non-climatic factors is recommended.

High-Resolution Climate Data Visualization through GIS- and Web-based Data Portals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

WANG, X.; Huang, G.

2017-12-01

Sound decisions on climate change adaptation rely on an in-depth assessment of potential climate change impacts at regional and local scales, which usually requires finer resolution climate projections at both spatial and temporal scales. However, effective downscaling of global climate projections is practically difficult due to the lack of computational resources and/or long-term reference data. Although a large volume of downscaled climate data has been make available to the public, how to understand and interpret the large-volume climate data and how to make use of the data to drive impact assessment and adaptation studies are still challenging for both impact researchers and decision makers. Such difficulties have become major barriers preventing informed climate change adaptation planning at regional scales. Therefore, this research will explore new GIS- and web-based technologies to help visualize the large-volume regional climate data with high spatiotemporal resolutions. A user-friendly public data portal, named Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP, http://ccdp.network), will be established to allow intuitive and open access to high-resolution regional climate projections at local scales. The CCDP offers functions of visual representation through geospatial maps and data downloading for a variety of climate variables (e.g., temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, solar radiation, and wind) at multiple spatial resolutions (i.e., 25 - 50 km) and temporal resolutions (i.e., annual, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly). The vast amount of information the CCDP encompasses can provide a crucial basis for assessing impacts of climate change on local communities and ecosystems and for supporting better decision making under a changing climate.

Local perceptions of climate change validated by scientific evidence in the Himalayas.

PubMed

Chaudhary, Pashupati; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2011-10-23

The Himalayas are assumed to be undergoing rapid climate change, with serious environmental, social and economic consequences for more than two billion people. However, data on the extent of climate change or its impact on the region are meagre. Based on local knowledge, we report perceived changes in climate and consequences of such changes for biodiversity and agriculture. Our analyses are based on 250 household interviews administered in 18 villages, and focused group discussions conducted in 10 additional villages in Darjeeling Hills, West Bengal, India and Ilam district of Nepal. There is a widespread feeling that weather is getting warmer, the water sources are drying up, the onset of summer and monsoon has advanced during last 10 years and there is less snow on mountains than before. Local perceptions of the impact of climate change on biodiversity included early budburst and flowering, new agricultural pests and weeds and appearance of mosquitoes. People at high altitudes appear more sensitive to climate change than those at low altitudes. Most local perceptions conform to scientific data. Local knowledge can be rapidly and efficiently gathered using systematic tools. Such knowledge can allow scientists to test specific hypotheses, and policy makers to design mitigation and adaptation strategies for climate change, especially in an extraordinarily important part of our world that is experiencing considerable change.

Climate Change and the Joint Force: An Assessment

DTIC Science & Technology

remote areas of the world. The US military is able to execute these operations because it has functioning bases in which to project power . The ability...to possess stable power projection platforms is slowly turning into an assumption due to the threat climate change poses. Climate change volatility

It Ain't the Heat, It's the Humanity: Evidence and Implications of a Knowledge-Based Consensus on Man-Made Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, P.; Cook, J.; Nuccitelli, D. A.

2013-12-01

One of the most worrisome misconceptions among the general public about climate change is a belief that scientists disagree not only about the cause of the present climate change, but also whether or not the planet is currently warming. Recent surveys have demonstrated that an overwhelming consensus exists, both within the scientific literature and among scientists with climate expertise, that the planet is warming and humans are driving this climatic change. This disconnect, or 'consensus gap', between scientific agreement and public belief has significant consequences for public understanding of the reality and cause of climate change, as well as support for potential solutions. Ensuring that the consensus message is not simply broadcast but is also accepted as legitimate by the public appears to be a primary education and communications opportunity. While the existence of a consensus is not itself evidence of a position's truth, according to Miller (2013) scientific consensus can be taken as evidence that a position is true if it is 'knowledge-based', satisfying the conditions of social calibration, apparent consilience of evidence, and social diversity. We demonstrate that the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change is knowledge-based, satisfying Miller's criteria. In so doing, we hope to increase confidence in its use as an education and communications tool, and assure the public of its validity. We show the consensus is socially calibrated, based on common evidential standards, ontological schemes, and shared formalism. We establish that consilience of evidence points overwhelmingly to the reality of anthropogenic climate change by examining the evidence from several perspectives. We identify unique fingerprints expected as a result of increased greenhouse forcing, eliminate potential natural drivers of climate change as the cause of the present change, and demonstrate the consistency of the observed climate response with known changes in natural and manmade forcings across a wide variety of indices. Finally, we determine that the consensus is socially diverse, being geographically and disciplinarily varied, supported within public and private institutions, and endorsed by research organizations as well as groups with obvious financial incentives to deny it, such as fossil fuel companies. Additionally, we briefly discuss examples of purported incorrect consensus in climate research, and detail how they fail to satisfy one or more aspects of Miller's criteria. We conclude by discussing the key role that knowledge-based consensus can potentially play in education, influencing public beliefs about climate change, and increasing support for solutions.

Reconstructing Student Conceptions of Climate Change; An Inquiry Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McClelland, J. Collin

No other environmental issue today has as much potential to alter life on Earth as does global climate change. Scientific evidence continues to grow; indicating that climate change is occurring now, and that change is a result of human activities (National Research Council [NRC], 2010). The need for climate literacy in society has become increasingly urgent. Unfortunately, understanding the concepts necessary for climate literacy remains a challenge for most individuals. A growing research base has identified a number of common misconceptions people have about climate literacy concepts (Leiserowitz, Smith, & Marlon 2011; Shepardson, Niyogi, Choi, & Charusombat, 2009). However, few have explored this understanding in high school students. This sequential mixed methods study explored the changing conceptions of global climate change in 90 sophomore biology students through the course of their participation in an eight-week inquiry-based global climate change unit. The study also explored changes in students' attitudes over the course of the study unit, contemplating possible relationships between students' conceptual understanding of and attitudes toward global climate change. Phase I of the mixed methods study included quantitative analysis of pre-post content knowledge and attitude assessment data. Content knowledge gains were statistically significant and over 25% of students in the study shifted from an expressed belief of denial or uncertainty about global warming to one of belief in it. Phase II used an inductive approach to explore student attitudes and conceptions. Conceptually, very few students grew to a scientifically accurate understanding of the greenhouse effect or the relationship between global warming and climate change. However, they generally made progress in their conceptual understanding by adding more specific detail to explain their understanding. Phase III employed a case study approach with eight purposefully selected student cases, identifying five common conceptual and five common attitudebased themes. Findings suggest similar misconceptions revealed in prior research also occurred in this study group. Some examples include; connecting global warming to the hole in the ozone layer, and falsely linking unrelated environmental issues like littering to climate change. Data about students' conceptual understanding of energy may also have implications for education research curriculum development. Similar to Driver & While no statistical relationship between students' attitudes about global climate change and overall conceptual understanding emerged, some data suggested that climate change skeptics may perceive the concept of evidence differently than non-skeptics. One-way ANOVA data comparing skeptics with other students on evidence-based assessment items was significant. This study offers insights to teachers of potential barriers students face when trying to conceptualize global climate change concepts. More importantly it reinforces the idea that students generally find value in learning about global climate change in the classroom.

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J; Roberts, David R; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site's future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.

Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This workbook is a guide for environmental professionals to construct a climate change adaptation plan based on identifying risks and their consequences. It incorporates watershed management, vulnerability assessments and action planning.

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

PubMed

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Exploring the Climate Literacy Development Utilizing a Learning Progressions Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drewes, A.; Breslyn, W.; McGinnis, J. R.; Hestness, E.; Mouza, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change encompasses a broad and complex set of concepts that is often challenging for students and educators. Using a learning progressions framework, in this exploratory study we report our efforts to identify, describe, and organize the development of learners' understanding of climate change in an empirically supported learning progression (LP). The learning progression framework is a well suited analytical tool for investigating how student thinking develops over time (Duschl et al., 2007). Our primary research question is "How do learners progress over time from an initial to a more sophisticated understanding of climate change?"We followed a development process that involved drafting a hypothetical learning progression based on the science education research literature, consensus documents such as the Next Generation Science Standards and the Atlas of Science Literacy. Additionally, we conducted expert reviews with both climate scientists and educational researchers on the content and pedagogical expectations. Data are then collected from learners, which are used to modify the hypothetical learning progression based on how well it describes actual student learning. In this current analysis, we present findings from written assessments (N=294) and in-depth interviews (n=27) with middle school students in which we examine their understanding of the role of human activity, the greenhouse effect as the mechanism of climate change, local and global impacts, and strategies for the adaptation and mitigation of climate change. The culmination of our research is a proposed, empirically supported LP for climate change. Our LP is framed by consideration of four primary constructs: Human Activity, Mechanism, Impacts, and Mitigation and Adaptation. The conditional LP provides a solid foundation for continued research as well as providing urgently needed guidance to the education community on climate change education (for curriculum, instruction, and assessment). Based on consensus documents like NGSS, the research literature, and data collected in our investigation, as well as review by practicing climate scientists and educational researchers, the climate change LP represents a robust and empirically supported description of how climate change understanding develops over time.

Sensitivity of Alpine Snow and Streamflow Regimes to Climate Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasouli, K.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Marks, D. G.; Bernhardt, M.

2014-12-01

Understanding the sensitivity of hydrological processes to climate change in alpine areas with snow dominated regimes is of paramount importance as alpine basins show both high runoff efficiency associated with the melt of the seasonal snowpack and great sensitivity of snow processes to temperature change. In this study, meteorological data measured in a selection of alpine headwaters basins including Reynolds Mountain East, Idaho, USA, Wolf Creek, Yukon in Canada, and Zugspitze Mountain, Germany with climates ranging from arctic to continental temperate were used to study the snow and streamflow sensitivity to climate change. All research sites have detailed multi-decadal meteorological and snow measurements. The Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) was used to create a model representing a typical alpine headwater basin discretized into hydrological response units with physically based representations of snow redistribution by wind, complex terrain snowmelt energetics and runoff processes in alpine tundra. The sensitivity of snow hydrology to climate change was investigated by changing air temperature and precipitation using weather generating methods based on the change factors obtained from different climate model projections for future and current periods. The basin mean and spatial variability of peak snow water equivalent, sublimation loss, duration of snow season, snowmelt rates, streamflow peak, and basin discharge were assessed under varying climate scenarios and the most sensitive hydrological mechanisms to the changes in the different alpine climates were detected. The results show that snow hydrology in colder alpine climates is more resilient to warming than that in warmer climates, but that compensatory factors to warming such as reduced blowing snow sublimation loss and reduced melt rate should also be assessed when considering climate change impacts on alpine hydrology.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fagre, Daniel B.; Pederson, Gregory; Bengtson, Lindsey E.; Prato, Tony; Qui, Zeyuan; Williams, Jimmie R.

2010-01-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960–2005) and future climate period (2006–2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO2 emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Potential economic benefits of adapting agricultural production systems to future climate change.

PubMed

Prato, Tony; Zeyuan, Qiu; Pederson, Gregory; Fagre, Dan; Bengtson, Lindsey E; Williams, Jimmy R

2010-03-01

Potential economic impacts of future climate change on crop enterprise net returns and annual net farm income (NFI) are evaluated for small and large representative farms in Flathead Valley in Northwest Montana. Crop enterprise net returns and NFI in an historical climate period (1960-2005) and future climate period (2006-2050) are compared when agricultural production systems (APSs) are adapted to future climate change. Climate conditions in the future climate period are based on the A1B, B1, and A2 CO(2) emission scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report. Steps in the evaluation include: (1) specifying crop enterprises and APSs (i.e., combinations of crop enterprises) in consultation with locals producers; (2) simulating crop yields for two soils, crop prices, crop enterprises costs, and NFIs for APSs; (3) determining the dominant APS in the historical and future climate periods in terms of NFI; and (4) determining whether NFI for the dominant APS in the historical climate period is superior to NFI for the dominant APS in the future climate period. Crop yields are simulated using the Environmental/Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model and dominance comparisons for NFI are based on the stochastic efficiency with respect to a function (SERF) criterion. Probability distributions that best fit the EPIC-simulated crop yields are used to simulate 100 values for crop yields for the two soils in the historical and future climate periods. Best-fitting probability distributions for historical inflation-adjusted crop prices and specified triangular probability distributions for crop enterprise costs are used to simulate 100 values for crop prices and crop enterprise costs. Averaged over all crop enterprises, farm sizes, and soil types, simulated net return per ha averaged over all crop enterprises decreased 24% and simulated mean NFI for APSs decreased 57% between the historical and future climate periods. Although adapting APSs to future climate change is advantageous (i.e., NFI with adaptation is superior to NFI without adaptation based on SERF), in six of the nine cases in which adaptation is advantageous, NFI with adaptation in the future climate period is inferior to NFI in the historical climate period. Therefore, adaptation of APSs to future climate change in Flathead Valley is insufficient to offset the adverse impacts on NFI of such change.

Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara

2009-05-01

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

Development and climate change: a mainstreaming approach for assessing economic, social, and environmental impacts of adaptation measures.

PubMed

Halsnaes, Kirsten; Traerup, Sara

2009-05-01

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

Improved ground-based remote-sensing systems help monitor plant response to climate and other changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dye, Dennis G.; Bogle, Rian

2016-05-26

Scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey are improving and developing new ground-based remote-sensing instruments and techniques to study how Earth’s vegetation responds to changing climates. Do seasonal grasslands and forests “green up” early (or late) and grow more (or less) during unusually warm years? How do changes in temperature and precipitation affect these patterns? Innovations in ground-based remote-sensing instrumentation can help us understand, assess, and mitigate the effects of climate change on vegetation and related land resources.

Fight Swack, Adapt to Climate Change or How to Use Humor to Engage the Public in Climate Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, R.; Elinich, K.; Johnson, R.; Fink, J.; Crawford, J.

2014-12-01

We are carefully considering how a humor-based campaign can help us communicate important climate change messages. Using pilot campaign strategies, we have engaged local residents in focus groups and interviews to understand how effective the approach can be. Growing educational research suggests learning about climate change can lead to feelings of depression, fear and inaction. Climate change seems too big of a task to take on. But with sweaty back (or "swack" as it's known in some circles), there's a public enemy that can be defeated. As only one piece of an innovative model for informal climate change education, the Climate and Urban Systems Partnership repositions the war on climate change by declaring a war on swack instead. This way, we can talk about climate change in a way it has never been talked about before that will certainly get people's attention. It also answers the common question of, "Yeah, but how does it affect me?" We're educating about responses to climate change because heat waves, floods, and excessive back sweat all kinda suck a lot.

Using Web GIS "Climate" for Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordova, Yulia; Martynova, Yulia; Shulgina, Tamara

2015-04-01

A work is devoted to the application of an information-computational Web GIS "Climate" developed by joint team of the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems SB RAS and Tomsk State University to raise awareness about current and future climate change as a basis for further adaptation. Web-GIS "Climate» (http://climate.scert.ru/) based on modern concepts of Web 2.0 provides opportunities to study regional climate change and its consequences by providing access to climate and weather models, a large set of geophysical data and means of processing and visualization. Also, the system is used for the joint development of software applications by distributed research teams, research based on these applications and undergraduate and graduate students training. In addition, the system capabilities allow creating information resources to raise public awareness about climate change, its causes and consequences, which is a necessary step for the subsequent adaptation to these changes. Basic information course on climate change is placed in the public domain and is aimed at local population. Basic concepts and problems of modern climate change and its possible consequences are set out and illustrated in accessible language. Particular attention is paid to regional climate changes. In addition to the information part, the course also includes a selection of links to popular science network resources on current issues in Earth Sciences and a number of practical tasks to consolidate the material. These tasks are performed for a particular territory. Within the tasks users need to analyze the prepared within the "Climate" map layers and answer questions of direct interest to the public: "How did the minimum value of winter temperatures change in your area?", "What are the dynamics of maximum summer temperatures?", etc. Carrying out the analysis of the dynamics of climate change contributes to a better understanding of climate processes and further adaptation. Passing this course raises awareness of the general public, as well as prepares the user for subsequent registration in the system and work with its tools in conducting independent research. This work is partially supported by SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grants 13-05-12034 and 14-05-00502.

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

PubMed Central

Wan, Jizhong

2016-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves. PMID:27326373

'The Lived Experience of Climate Changé: An Interdisciplinary and Competence-Based Masters Track Using Open Educational Resources and Virtual Mobility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbott, Dina; de Kraker, Joop; Pérez, Paquita; van Scheltinga, Catharien Terwisscha; Willems, Patrick; Wilson, Gordon

Drawing on the authors' involvement in a European Union Erasmus project, this paper explores a new holistic approach to climate change education which uses as a source of active/social learning and knowledge construction the diversity of different disciplinary and sectoral approaches. We further argue for a corresponding pedagogy based on developing transboundary competences where the communicative engagement across space and time, and between diverse perspectives and standpoints, is ICT-enabled. Meeting these challenges is a normative goal, not only for this expanded interdisciplinary approach to climate change education, but also for a global resolution of the climate change issue itself.

Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

2014-03-01

There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

PubMed

Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

2017-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The global climate change effect on the Altai region's climate in the first half of XXI century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagutin, Anatoly A.; Volkov, Nikolai V.; Makushev, Konstantin M.; Mordvin, Egor Yu.

2017-11-01

We investigate an effect of global climate system change on climate of Altai region. It is shown that a data of the RegCM4 regional climate model, obtained for contemporary and future periods, within an approach which is based on standard Euclidean distance, allows to define specific zones in which climate change is forecasted. Such zones have been defined for the Altai region territory within the framework of global radiative forcing scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the middle of XXI century.

Hydrological Climate Classification: Can We Improve on Köppen-Geiger?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knoben, W.; Woods, R. A.; Freer, J. E.

2017-12-01

Classification is essential in the study of complex natural systems, yet hydrology so far has no formal way to structure the climate forcing which underlies hydrologic response. Various climate classification systems can be borrowed from other disciplines but these are based on different organizing principles than a hydrological classification might use. From gridded global data we calculate a gridded aridity index, an aridity seasonality index and a rain-vs-snow index, which we use to cluster global locations into climate groups. We then define the membership degree of nearly 1100 catchments to each of our climate groups based on each catchment's climate and investigate the extent to which streamflow responses within each climate group are similar. We compare this climate classification approach with the often-used Köppen-Geiger classification, using statistical tests based on streamflow signature values. We find that three climate indices are sufficient to distinguish 18 different climate types world-wide. Climates tend to change gradually in space and catchments can thus belong to multiple climate groups, albeit with different degrees of membership. Streamflow responses within a climate group tend to be similar, regardless of the catchments' geographical proximity. A Wilcoxon two-sample test based on streamflow signature values for each climate group shows that the new classification can distinguish different flow regimes using this classification scheme. The Köppen-Geiger approach uses 29 climate classes but is less able to differentiate streamflow regimes. Climate forcing exerts a strong control on typical hydrologic response and both change gradually in space. This makes arbitrary hard boundaries in any classification scheme difficult to defend. Any hydrological classification should thus acknowledge these gradual changes in forcing. Catchment characteristics (soil or vegetation type, land use, etc) can vary more quickly in space than climate does, which can explain streamflow differences between geographically close locations. Summarizing, this work shows that hydrology needs its own way to structure climate forcing, acknowledging that climates vary gradually on a global scale and explicitly including those climate aspects that drive seasonal changes in hydrologic regimes.

Visualizing and communicating climate change using the ClimateWizard: decision support and education through web-based analysis and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Maurer, E. P.; Duffy, P.

2009-12-01

Virtually all fields of study and parts of society—from ecological science and nature conservation, to global development, multinational corporations, and government bodies—need to know how climate change has and may impact specific locations of interest. Our ability to respond to climate change depends on having convenient tools that make past and projected climate trends available to planners, managers, scientists and the general public, at scales ranging from global to local scales. Web-mapping applications provide an effective platform for communicating climate change impacts in specific geographic areas of interest to the public. Here, we present one such application, the ClimateWizard, that allows users to analyze, visualize and explore climate change maps for specific geographic areas of interest throughout the world (http://ClimateWizard.org). Built on Web 2.0 web-services (SOAP), Google Maps mash-up, and cloud computing technologies, the ClimateWizard analyzes large databases of climate information located on remote servers to create synthesized information and useful products tailored to geographic areas of interest (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). We demonstrate how the ClimateWizard can be used to assess projected changes to temperature and precipitation across all states in the contiguous United States and all countries of the world using statistically downscaled general circulation models from the CMIP3 dataset. We then go on to show how ClimateWizard can be used to analyze changes to other climate related variables, such as moisture stress and water production. Finally, we discuss how this tool can be adapted to develop a wide range of web-based tools that are targeted at informing specific audiences—from scientific research and natural resource management, to K-12 and higher education—about how climate change may affect different aspects of human and natural systems.

Assessing present and future climate changes in Siberia and their regional socioeconomic consequences using a web-based big data geoprocessing platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, V. A.; Gordov, E. P.

2016-12-01

Recently initiated collaborative research project is presented. Its main objective is to develop high spatial and temporal resolution datasets for studying the ongoing and future climate changes in Siberia, caused by global and regional processes in the atmosphere and the ocean. This goal will be achieved by using a set of regional and global climate models for the analysis of the mechanisms of climate change and quantitative assessment of changes in key climate variables, including analysis of extreme weather and climate events and their dynamics, evaluation of the frequency, amplitude and the risks caused by the extreme events in the region. The main practical application of the project is to provide experts, stakeholders and the public with quantitative information about the future climate change in Siberia obtained on the base of a computational web- geoinformation platform. The thematic platform will be developed in order to facilitate processing and analysis of high resolution georeferenced datasets that will be delivered and made available to scientific community, policymakes and other end users as a result of the project. Software packages will be developed to implement calculation of various climatological indicators in order to characterize and diagnose climate change and its dynamics, as well as to archive results in digital form of electronic maps (GIS layers). By achieving these goals the project will provide science based tools necessary for developing mitigation measures for adapting to climate change and reducing negative impact on the population and infrastructure of the region. Financial support of the computational web- geoinformation platform prototype development by the RF Ministry of Education and Science under Agreement 14.613.21.0037 (RFMEFI61315X0037) is acknowledged.

Climate Change: Modeling the Human Response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.

2012-12-01

Integrated assessment models have historically relied on forward modeling including, where possible, process-based representations to project climate change impacts. Some recent impact studies incorporate the effects of human responses to initial physical impacts, such as adaptation in agricultural systems, migration in response to drought, and climate-related changes in worker productivity. Sometimes the human response ameliorates the initial physical impacts, sometimes it aggravates it, and sometimes it displaces it onto others. In these arenas, understanding of underlying socioeconomic mechanisms is extremely limited. Consequently, for some sectors where sufficient data has accumulated, empirically based statistical models of human responses to past climate variability and change have been used to infer response sensitivities which may apply under certain conditions to future impacts, allowing a broad extension of integrated assessment into the realm of human adaptation. We discuss the insights gained from and limitations of such modeling for benefit-cost analysis of climate change.

Adapting natural resource management to climate change: The South Central Oregon and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2015-12-01

Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and one national park in south central Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

Development of Climate Change Adaptation Platform using Spatial Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, J.; Oh, K. Y.; Lee, M. J.; Han, W. J.

2014-12-01

Climate change adaptation has attracted growing attention with the recent extreme weather conditions that affect people around the world. More and more countries, including the Republic of Korea, have begun to hatch adaptation plan to resolve these matters of great concern. They all, meanwhile, have mentioned that it should come first to integrate climate information in all analysed areas. That's because climate information is not independently made through one source; that is to say, the climate information is connected one another in a complicated way. That is the reason why we have to promote integrated climate change adaptation platform before setting up climate change adaptation plan. Therefore, the large-scaled project has been actively launched and worked on. To date, we researched 620 literatures and interviewed 51 government organizations. Based on the results of the researches and interviews, we obtained 2,725 impacts about vulnerability assessment information such as Monitoring and Forecasting, Health, Disaster, Agriculture, Forest, Water Management, Ecosystem, Ocean/Fisheries, Industry/Energy. Among 2,725 impacts, 995 impacts are made into a database until now. This database is made up 3 sub categories like Climate-Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive capacity, presented by IPCC. Based on the constructed database, vulnerability assessments were carried out in order to evaluate climate change capacity of local governments all over the country. These assessments were conducted by using web-based vulnerability assessment tool which was newly developed through this project. These results have shown that, metropolitan areas like Seoul, Pusan, Inchon, and so on have high risks more than twice than rural areas. Acknowledgements: The authors appreciate the support that this study has received from "Development of integrated model for climate change impact and vulnerability assessment and strengthening the framework for model implementation ", an initiative of the Korea Environmental & Industry Technology Institute .

Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

2017-12-01

Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

Climate, Water and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snorrason, A.; Jonsdottir, J. F.

2004-05-01

Climate and Energy (CE) is a new Nordic research project with funding from Nordic Energy Research (NEFP) and the Nordic energy sector. The project has the objective of a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate variability and change on Nordic renewable energy resources including hydropower, wind power, bio-fuels and solar energy. This will include assessment of the power production of the hydropower dominated Nordic energy system and its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change on both temporal and spatial scales; assessment of the impacts of extremes including floods, droughts, storms, seasonal patterns and variability. Within the CE project several thematic groups work on specific issues of climatic change and their impacts on renewable energy. A primary aim of the CE climate group is to supply a standard set of common scenarios of climate change in northern Europe and Greenland, based on recent global and regional climate change experiments. The snow and ice group has chosen glaciers from Greenland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden for an analysis of the response of glaciers to climate changes. Mass balance and dynamical changes, corresponding to the common scenario for climate changes, will be modelled and effects on glacier hydrology will be estimated. Preliminary work with dynamic modelling and climate scenarios shows a dramatic response of glacial runoff to increased temperature and precipitation. The statistical analysis group has reported on the status of time series analysis in the Nordic countries. The group has selected and quality controlled time series of stream flow to be included in the Nordic component of the database FRIEND. Also the group will collect information on time series for other variables and these series will be systematically analysed with respect to trend and other long-term changes. Preliminary work using multivariate analysis on stream flow and climate variables shows strong linkages with the long term atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic. The hydrological modelling group has already reported on "Climate change impacts on water resources in the Nordic countries - State of the art and discussion of principles". The group will compare different approaches of transferring the climate change signal into hydrological models and discuss uncertainties in models and climate scenarios. Furthermore, comprehensive assessment and mapping of impact of climate change will be produced for the whole Nordic region based on the scenarios from the CE-climate group.

Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

PubMed Central

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied. PMID:25285917

Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

PubMed

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change.

PubMed

Moor, Helen

2017-01-01

Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species' overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence mechanisms may increase community resilience to future climate change and are useful guides for model development.

Promoting Regionally-Based Climate Change Education through Collaborations with Formal and Informal Education Institutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stylinski, C.; Griswold, M.

2012-12-01

Improving climate literacy is necessary to effectively respond to climate change impacts. However, climate change education efforts face significant hurdles both in the classroom and in out-of-school settings. These include addressing uncertainity and the complex mix of drivers and impacts that occur over large spatial and temporal scales. These efforts are further hampered by audiences who are disinterested and resisant to discussions of anthropogenic climate change. Bridging formal and informal education experiences focused on climate change offers a potentially powerful strategy to tackle these challenges. In this session, we will describe our NSF-funded Maryland-Delaware Climate Change Education, Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) project, which applies a comprehensive regional partnership among scientists, education researchers, K-12 and informal education practitioners, and other stakeholders to improve public and student understanding of and engagement in climate change issues and solutions. To better understand gaps and opportunities, we have conducted surveys and interviews with K-12, informal, and undergraduate educators and administrators. We found that climate change education aligns with most institutions' missions and efforts, that most educators do not face institutional barriers to climate change education, and that climate change is typically incorporated as part of a host of environmental issues. Despite this, climate change education is still quite limited with few institutions explicitly focusing on climate change in their programming. Additionally, there is little apparent communication among these institutions with regard to this issue. In response to these needs, we have focused the MADE-CLEAR project on creating and providing regionally-relevant resouces and professional development on climate change science, impacts and solutions for both formal and informal educators. Our approach is collaborative and includes strategies to promote networking within and among these two groups. For example, we will lead joint workshops where K-12 teachers can share their in-depth understanding of climate change concepts and links to education standards, while free-choice-learning practitioners can provide their expertise in engaging diverse audiences and supporting more learner-centered teaching. Our resources will further support a formal-informal bridge by helping both groups of educators make climate change relevant to their audiences with local examples of impacts and ways to mitigate or adapt to these impacts. Our project includes design-based research, and thus we will examine how our professional development is translated into practice at different types of institutions and the impact of our approach on enhancing formal-informal education collaborations focused on climate change education.

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism

PubMed Central

Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael L.; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A.; Howe, Peter D.; Pretis, Felix; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-01

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that “global warming is happening.” This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved. PMID:27994143

Spatial heterogeneity of climate change as an experiential basis for skepticism.

PubMed

Kaufmann, Robert K; Mann, Michael L; Gopal, Sucharita; Liederman, Jackie A; Howe, Peter D; Pretis, Felix; Tang, Xiaojing; Gilmore, Michelle

2017-01-03

We postulate that skepticism about climate change is partially caused by the spatial heterogeneity of climate change, which exposes experiential learners to climate heuristics that differ from the global average. This hypothesis is tested by formalizing an index that measures local changes in climate using station data and comparing this index with survey-based model estimates of county-level opinion about whether global warming is happening. Results indicate that more stations exhibit cooling and warming than predicted by random chance and that spatial variations in these changes can account for spatial variations in the percentage of the population that believes that "global warming is happening." This effect is diminished in areas that have experienced more record low temperatures than record highs since 2005. Together, these results suggest that skepticism about climate change is driven partially by personal experiences; an accurate heuristic for local changes in climate identifies obstacles to communicating ongoing changes in climate to the public and how these communications might be improved.

U.S. Navy Task Force Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, T.; McBride, B.; St. John, C.

2011-12-01

In May 2009, the Chief of Naval Operations established Task Force Climate Change (TFCC) to develop Navy policy, plans, and recommendations regarding future investments to adapt to the world's changing climate. With a near-term focus on the changing Arctic ocean and consequent increase in access to the region, TFCC has adopted a science-based approach in collaboration with other U.S. government agencies, international partners, industry, and academia. TFCC has developed two roadmaps that provide 5-year action plans for the Navy to address the Arctic and global climate change. Critical elements of both roadmaps are assessments of: (1) current and projected climate change, (2) resulting impacts to Naval missions and infrastructure, and (3) associated risks of not taking adaptation actions that are operationally, environmentally, and ecologically sustainable. Through TFCC, the Navy acknowledges the link between climate change and national security, and engages in extensive outreach and strategic communication to remain informed on the best climate science and promote public understanding and support regarding the Navy's climate change efforts.

The use of religious metaphors by UK newspapers to describe and denigrate climate change.

PubMed

Woods, Ruth; Fernández, Ana; Coen, Sharon

2012-04-01

British newspapers have denigrated anthropogenic climate change by misrepresenting scientific consensus and/or framing climate change within unsympathetic discourses. One aspect of the latter that has not been studied is the use of metaphor to disparage climate change science and proponents. This article analyses 122 British newspaper articles published using a religious metaphor between summer 2003 and 2008. Most were critical of climate change, especially articles in conservative newspapers The Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail and The Times. Articles used religion as a source of metaphor to denigrate climate change in two ways: (1) undermining its scientific status by presenting it as irrational faith-based religion, and proponents as religious extremists intolerant of criticism; (2) mocking climate change using notions of sin, e.g. describing 'green' behaviours as atonement or sacrifice. We argue that the religious metaphor damages constructive debate by emphasizing morality and how climate change is discussed, and detracting attention from the content of scientific data and theories.

Supporting Students' Learning and Socioscientific Reasoning About Climate Change—the Effect of Computer-Based Concept Mapping Scaffolds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggert, Sabina; Nitsch, Anne; Boone, William J.; Nückles, Matthias; Bögeholz, Susanne

2017-02-01

Climate change is one of the most challenging problems facing today's global society (e.g., IPCC 2013). While climate change is a widely covered topic in the media, and abundant information is made available through the internet, the causes and consequences of climate change in its full complexity are difficult for individuals, especially non-scientists, to grasp. Science education is a field which can play a crucial role in fostering meaningful education of students to become climate literate citizens (e.g., NOAA 2009; Schreiner et al., 41, 3-50, 2005). If students are, at some point, to participate in societal discussions about the sustainable development of our planet, their learning with respect to such issues needs to be supported. This includes the ability to think critically, to cope with complex scientific evidence, which is often subject to ongoing inquiry, and to reach informed decisions on the basis of factual information as well as values-based considerations. The study presented in this paper focused on efforts to advance students in (1) their conceptual understanding about climate change and (2) their socioscientific reasoning and decision making regarding socioscientific issues in general. Although there is evidence that "knowledge" does not guarantee pro-environmental behavior (e.g. Schreiner et al., 41, 3-50, 2005; Skamp et al., 97(2), 191-217, 2013), conceptual, interdisciplinary understanding of climate change is an important prerequisite to change individuals' attitudes towards climate change and thus to eventually foster climate literate citizens (e.g., Clark et al. 2013). In order to foster conceptual understanding and socioscientific reasoning, a computer-based learning environment with an embedded concept mapping tool was utilized to support senior high school students' learning about climate change and possible solution strategies. The evaluation of the effect of different concept mapping scaffolds focused on the quality of student-generated concept maps, as well as on students' test performance with respect to conceptual knowledge as well as socioscientific reasoning and socioscientific decision making.

Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

2017-01-01

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

Climate changes impact the surface albedo of a forest ecosystem based on MODIS satellite data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoran, M. A.; Nemuc, A. V.

2007-10-01

Surface albedo is one of the most important biophysical parameter responsible for energy balance control and the surface temperature and boundary-layer structure of the atmosphere. Forest land surface albedo is also highly variable temporally showing both diurnal as well as seasonal variations. In forest systems, albedo controls the microclimate conditions which affects ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes such as energy balance, evapotranspiration, photosynthesis. Due to anthropogenic and natural factors, land cover and land use changes result is the land surfaces albedo change. The main aim of this paper is to investigate the albedo patterns due to the impact of atmospheric pollution and climate variations of a forest ecosystem Branesti-Cernica, placed to the North-East of Bucharest city, Romania based on satellite Landsat ETM+, IKONOS and MODIS data and climate station observations. Our study focuses on 3 years of data (2003-2005), each of which had a different climatic regime. As the physical climate system is very sensitive to surface albedo, forest ecosystems could significantly feedback to the projected climate change modeling scenarios through albedo changes. The results of this research have a number of applications in weather forecasting, climate change, and forest ecosystem studies.

[Climate change risk of nature reserve and its assessment: A case study of Dalinuoer National Nature Reserve in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region].

PubMed

Zhao, Wei; Shen, Wei Shou; Liu, Hai Yue

2016-12-01

According to the theoretical framework of addressing climate change based on risk mana-gement and the challenge to nature reserve management under climate change, climate change risk of nature reserve was analyzed and defined. Focus on birds and water habitat, grassland habitat, forest habitat, wetland habitat in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk assessment method of nature reserve under climate change was formulated, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were assessed and predicted. The results showed that, during the period from 1997 to 2010, there was significant volatility in dynamic changes of climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region, Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were in status of risk in 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2008, wetland habitat was also in status of risk in 2002 and 2004. Under scenario A, B and C, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region would be more serious in 2020 and 2030, compared with the 2010 level. Climate change risks to different habitats were different significantly, with most serious climate change risk to wetland habitat due to its sensitivity to climate change and rich bird resources. The effect of climate change on nature reserve and related risk would be aggravated by excess utilization of water resource and grassland resource. As climate change risks had appeared in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk management associated with climate change could greatly help to maintain and enhance biodiversity protection function of nature reserves.

Obama Presents Far-Reaching Climate Plan, Addresses Keystone Pipeline Proposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2013-07-01

Stating that climate change "is a challenge that does not pause for partisan gridlock," U.S. President Barack Obama took matters into his own hands and presented a broad-based climate action plan on 25 June. The plan, which relies on existing administrative authority and does not require congressional approval, includes three primary objectives: cutting carbon pollution in the United States, preparing the nation for the impacts of climate change, and leading international efforts to address climate change.

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters in a Changing Climate: Lessons for Adaptation to Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mastrandrea, M.; Field, C. B.; Mach, K. J.; Barros, V.

2013-12-01

The IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation, published in 2012, integrates expertise in climate science, disaster risk reduction, and adaptation to inform discussions on how to reduce and manage the risks of extreme events and disasters in a changing climate. Impacts and the risks of disasters are determined by the interaction of the physical characteristics of weather and climate events with the vulnerability of exposed human society and ecosystems. The Special Report evaluates the factors that make people and infrastructure vulnerable to extreme events, trends in disaster losses, recent and future changes in the relationship between climate change and extremes, and experience with a wide range of options used by institutions, organizations, and communities to reduce exposure and vulnerability, and improve resilience, to climate extremes. Actions ranging from incremental improvements in governance and technology to more transformational changes are assessed. The Special Report provides a knowledge base that is also relevant to the broader context of managing the risks of climate change through mitigation, adaptation, and other responses, assessed in the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), to be completed in 2014. These themes include managing risks through an iterative process involving learning about risks and the effectiveness of responses, employing a portfolio of actions tailored to local circumstances but with links from local to global scales, and considering additional benefits of actions such as improving livelihoods and well-being. The Working Group II contribution to the AR5 also examines the ways that extreme events and their impacts contribute to understanding of vulnerabilities and adaptation deficits in the context of climate change, the extent to which impacts of climate change are experienced through changes in the frequency and severity of extremes as opposed to mean changes, and the emergence of risks that are place-based vs. systemic.

Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land-cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

EPA Science Inventory

Changes in climate and land cover are principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land cover changes in the semi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevad...

Synopsis of climate change

Treesearch

Angela Jardine; Jonathan Long

2014-01-01

Changes in climate can interact with other stressors to transform ecosystems and alter the services those ecosystems provide. This synopsis presents themes that run through the synthesis report regarding the impacts of a changing climate on the forests and waters of the synthesis area as well as long-term, broad-scale, science-based strategies to promote system...

The importance of assessing climate change vulnerability to address species conservation

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Megan M. Friggens; Sharon J. Coe; Deborah M. Finch

2014-01-01

Species conservation often prioritizes attention on a small subset of "special status" species at high risk of extinction, but actions based on current lists of special status species may not effectively moderate biodiversity loss if climate change alters threats. Assessments of climate change vulnerability may provide a method to enhance identification of...

Engaging Visitors in Climate Change Communication: A Case Study of Southern Florida's National Parks and Wildlife Refuges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beard, Caroline A.; Thompson, Jessica Leigh

2012-01-01

Through the lens of place-based climate change communication, this manuscript compares results from internal and external assessments of capacity to communicate about climate change at national parks and refuges in southern Florida. The internal survey sample included agency staff, stakeholders, community partners, and concessionaires; the…

Compromise-based Robust Prioritization of Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for Watershed Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Chung, E. S.

2014-12-01

This study suggests a robust prioritization framework for climate change adaptation strategies under multiple climate change scenarios with a case study of selecting sites for reusing treated wastewater (TWW) in a Korean urban watershed. The framework utilizes various multi-criteria decision making techniques, including the VIKOR method and the Shannon entropy-based weights. In this case study, the sustainability of TWW use is quantified with indicator-based approaches with the DPSIR framework, which considers both hydro-environmental and socio-economic aspects of the watershed management. Under the various climate change scenarios, the hydro-environmental responses to reusing TWW in potential alternative sub-watersheds are determined using the Hydrologic Simulation Program in Fortran (HSPF). The socio-economic indicators are obtained from the statistical databases. Sustainability scores for multiple scenarios are estimated individually and then integrated with the proposed approach. At last, the suggested framework allows us to prioritize adaptation strategies in a robust manner with varying levels of compromise between utility-based and regret-based strategies.

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

2008-01-01

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Biologically Based Methods for Pest Management in Agriculture under Changing Climates: Challenges and Future Directions.

PubMed

Chidawanyika, Frank; Mudavanhu, Pride; Nyamukondiwa, Casper

2012-11-09

The current changes in global climatic regimes present a significant societal challenge, affecting in all likelihood insect physiology, biochemistry, biogeography and population dynamics. With the increasing resistance of many insect pest species to chemical insecticides and an increasing organic food market, pest control strategies are slowly shifting towards more sustainable, ecologically sound and economically viable options. Biologically based pest management strategies present such opportunities through predation or parasitism of pests and plant direct or indirect defense mechanisms that can all be important components of sustainable integrated pest management programs. Inevitably, the efficacy of biological control systems is highly dependent on natural enemy-prey interactions, which will likely be modified by changing climates. Therefore, knowledge of how insect pests and their natural enemies respond to climate variation is of fundamental importance in understanding biological insect pest management under global climate change. Here, we discuss biological control, its challenges under climate change scenarios and how increased global temperatures will require adaptive management strategies to cope with changing status of insects and their natural enemies.

A Robust, Scalable Framework for Conducting Climate Change Susceptibility Analyses

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

for identifying areas of heightened risk from varying forms of climate forcings is needed. Based on global climate model projections, deviations from...framework provides an opportunity to easily combine multiple data sources — that are often freely available from many federal, state, and global ...Climate change and extreme weather events: implications for food production, plant diseases, and pests. Global Change and Human Health 2:90–104. ERDC/EL

Physiological-based modelling of marine fish early life stages provides process knowledge on climate impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peck, M. A.

2016-02-01

Gaining a cause-and-effect understanding of climate-driven changes in marine fish populations at appropriate spatial scales is important for providing robust advice for ecosystem-based fisheries management. Coupling long-term, retrospective analyses and 3-d biophysical, individual-based models (IBMs) shows great potential to reveal mechanism underlying historical changes and to project future changes in marine fishes. IBMs created for marine fish early life stages integrate organismal-level physiological responses and climate-driven changes in marine habitats (from ocean physics to lower trophic level productivity) to test and reveal processes affecting marine fish recruitment. Case studies are provided for hindcasts and future (A1 and B2 projection) simulations performed on some of the most ecologically- and commercially-important pelagic and demersal fishes in the North Sea including European anchovy, Atlantic herring, European sprat and Atlantic cod. We discuss the utility of coupling biophysical IBMs to size-spectrum models to better project indirect (trophodynamic) pathways of climate influence on the early life stages of these and other fishes. Opportunities and challenges are discussed regarding the ability of these physiological-based tools to capture climate-driven changes in living marine resources and food web dynamics of shelf seas.

Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate.

PubMed

Suttle, K B; Thomsen, Meredith A; Power, Mary E

2007-02-02

Predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. We show that, in a California grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years. We manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. Changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories. Conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. Changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change.

Guidelines for the adaptation to floods in changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata J.

2017-08-01

A decrease of flood damages in the future requires not only adaptation to flood caused by present day climate, but also climate change effects on floods should be taken into account. The paper illustrates the need to take into account changing climate conditions in flood adaptation strategies and to apply in practice the concept of integrated water resource management (IWRM). IWRM is based on a number of policy instruments, economic instruments, political signals, and also, on the effects of climate change on floods and collaboration across national, regional and local administrative units. The guidelines for a country adaptation to floods in a changing climate are outlined. A comparison of the adaptive capacities in Poland and Norway is used to illustrate the need for the implementation of proposed guidelines to assure flood risk management under climate change in a sustainable way.

The Climate Change Education Evidence Base: Lessons Learned from NOAA's Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, J.

2012-12-01

Federal science mission agencies are under increased pressure to ensure that their STEM education investments accomplish several objectives, including the identification and use of evidence-based approaches. Climate change education and climate literacy programs fall under these broader STEM initiatives. This paper is designed as a primer for climate change education evaluators and researchers to understand the policy context on the use of evidence. Recent initiatives, that include the National Science Foundation (NSF), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), point to a need for shared goals and measurements amongst the climate change education community. The Tri-agency Climate Change Education (CCE) collaboration, which includes NSF, NASA, and NOAA, developed the Tri-Agency Climate Change Education Common Evaluation Framework Initiative Stakeholder Statement (2012). An excerpt: From the perspective of the tri-agency collaboration, and its individual agency members, the goal of the common framework is not to build a required evaluation scheme or a set of new requirements for our funded climate change education initiatives. Rather, the collaboration would be strengthened by the development of a framework that includes tools, instruments, and/or documentation to: ● Help the agencies see and articulate the relationships between the individual pieces of the tri-agency CCE portfolio; ● Guide the agencies in reporting on the progress, lessons learned, and impacts of the collaboration between the three agencies in developing a coordinated portfolio of climate education initiatives; and ● Help the individual projects, as part of this broader portfolio, understand where they fit into a larger picture. The accomplishments of this initiative to date have been based on the collaborative nature of evaluators the climate change education community within the tri-agency portfolio. While this effort has provided some shared understanding and general guidance, there is still a lack of guidance to make decisions at any level of the community. A recent memorandum from the Office of Management and Budget provides more specific guidance around the generation and utilization of evidence. For example, the amount of funding awarded through grants should be weighted by the level of the evidence supporting a proposed project. As the field of climate change education establishes an evidence base, study designs should address a greater number of internal validity threats through comparison groups and reliable common measures. In addition, OMB invites agencies to develop systematic measurement of costs and costs per outcome. A growing evidence base, one that includes data that includes costs and even monetizes benefits, can inform decisions based on the strongest returns on investments within a portfolio. This paper will provide examples from NOAA's Monitoring and Evaluation Framework Implementation project that illustrate how NOAA is facing these challenges. This is intended to inform climate change educators, evaluators, and researchers in ways to integrate evaluation into the management of their programs while providing insight across the portfolio.

Construction of Gridded Daily Weather Data and its Use in Central-European Agroclimatic Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubrovsky, M.; Trnka, M.; Skalak, P.

2013-12-01

The regional-scale simulations of weather-sensitive processes (e.g. hydrology, agriculture and forestry) for the present and/or future climate often require high resolution meteorological inputs in terms of the time series of selected surface weather characteristics (typically temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, humidity, wind) for a set of stations or on a regular grid. As even the latest Global and Regional Climate Models (GCMs and RCMs) do not provide realistic representation of statistical structure of the surface weather, the model outputs must be postprocessed (downscaled) to achieve the desired statistical structure of the weather data before being used as an input to the follow-up simulation models. One of the downscaling approaches, which is employed also here, is based on a weather generator (WG), which is calibrated using the observed weather series, interpolated, and then modified according to the GCM- or RCM-based climate change scenarios. The present contribution, in which the parametric daily weather generator M&Rfi is linked to the high-resolution RCM output (ALADIN-Climate/CZ model) and GCM-based climate change scenarios, consists of two parts: The first part focuses on a methodology. Firstly, the gridded WG representing the baseline climate is created by merging information from observations and high resolution RCM outputs. In this procedure, WG is calibrated with RCM-simulated multi-variate weather series, and the grid specific WG parameters are then de-biased by spatially interpolated correction factors based on comparison of WG parameters calibrated with RCM-simulated weather series vs. spatially scarcer observations. To represent the future climate, the WG parameters are modified according to the 'WG-friendly' climate change scenarios. These scenarios are defined in terms of changes in WG parameters and include - apart from changes in the means - changes in WG parameters, which represent the additional characteristics of the weather series (e.g. probability of wet day occurrence and lag-1 autocorrelation of daily mean temperature). The WG-friendly scenarios for the present experiment are based on comparison of future vs baseline surface weather series simulated by GCMs from a CMIP3 database. The second part will present results of climate change impact study based on an above methodology applied to Central Europe. The changes in selected climatic (focusing on the extreme precipitation and temperature characteristics) and agroclimatic (including number of days during vegetation season with heat and drought stresses) characteristics will be analysed. In discussing the results, the emphasis will be put on 'added value' of various aspects of above methodology (e.g. inclusion of changes in 'advanced' WG parameters into the climate change scenarios). Acknowledgements: The present experiment is made within the frame of projects WG4VALUE (project LD12029 sponsored by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of CR), ALARO-Climate (project P209/11/2405 sponsored by the Czech Science Foundation), and VALUE (COST ES 1102 action).

Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States.

PubMed

Goring, Simon J; Williams, John W

2017-04-01

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Testing the hypothesis on cognitive evolution of modern humans' learning ability: current status of past-climatic approaches.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoneda, Minoru; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Kawahata, Hodaka; Yokoyama, Yusuke; Oguchi, Takashi

2014-05-01

The impact of climate change on human evolution is important and debating topic for many years. Since 2010, we have involved in a general joint project entitled "Replacement of Neanderthal by Modern Humans: Testing Evolutional Models of Learning", which based on a theoretical prediction that the cognitive ability related to individual and social learning divide fates of ancient humans in very unstable Late Pleistocene climate. This model predicts that the human populations which experienced a series of environmental changes would have higher rate of individual learners, while detailed reconstructions of global climate change have reported fluent and drastic change based on ice cores and stalagmites. However, we want to understand the difference between anatomically modern human which survived and the other archaic extinct humans including European Neanderthals and Asian Denisovans. For this purpose the global synchronized change is not useful for understanding but the regional difference in the amplitude and impact of climate change is the information required. Hence, we invited a geophysicist busing Global Circulation Model to reconstruct the climatic distribution and temporal change in a continental scale. At the same time, some geochemists and geographers construct a database of local climate changes recorded in different proxies. At last, archaeologists and anthropologists tried to interpret the emergence and disappearance of human species in Europe and Asia on the reconstructed past climate maps using some tools, such as Eco-cultural niche model. Our project will show the regional difference in climate change and related archaeological events and its impact on the evolution of learning ability of modern humans.

Using Local Climate Science to Educate "Key Influentials" and their Communities in the San Diego Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudrias, M. A.; Estrada, M.; Anders, S.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Yin, Z.; Schultz, P.; Young, E.

2012-12-01

The San Diego Regional Climate Education Partnership has formed an innovative and collaborative team whose mission is to implement a research-based climate science education and communications program to increase knowledge about climate science among highly-influential leaders and their communities and foster informed decision making based on climate science and impacts. The team includes climate scientists, behavioral psychologists, formal and informal educators and communication specialists. The Partnership's strategic plan has three major goals: (1) raise public understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change; (2) identify the most effective educational methods to educate non-traditional audiences (Key Influentials) about the causes and consequences of climate change; and (3) develop and implement a replicable model for regional climate change education. To implement this strategic plan, we have anchored our project on three major pillars: (1) Local climate science (causes, impacts and long-term consequences); (2) theoretical, research-based evaluation framework (TIMSI); and (3) Key! Influentials (KI) as primary audience for messages (working w! ith and through them). During CCEP-I, the Partnership formed and convened an advisory board of Key Influentials, completed interviews with a sample of Key Influentials, conducted a public opinion survey, developed a website (www.sandiego.edu/climate) , compiled inventories on literature of climate science education resources and climate change community groups and local activities, hosted stakeholder forums, and completed the first phase of on an experiment to test the effects of different messengers delivering the same local climate change message via video. Results of 38 KI Interviews provided evidence of local climate knowledge, strong concern about climate change, and deeply held values related to climate change education and regional leadership. The most intriguing result was that while 90% of Key Influentials described themselves as concerned about climate change, they believed only 10% of their peers were equally concerned. Results from a public opinion survey of 1001 San Diego residents exhibited two clear trends: San Diegans were consistently more attuned and concerned about climate change and its impacts than nationwide average; and similar to the KI findings, they do not believe others are as concerned as they are. Further, mediation analysis of results supported TIMSI, showing that climate change education that promotes efficacy, identity and values endorsed by a concerned community are most likely to result in engagement in mitigation and adaptive behaviors. All CCEP-I activities informed and directed the design of our Phase II Strategic plan and will provide baseline data for assessing changes that occur as we implement the educational plan. Implementation strategies for the next Phase will emphasize (1) presenting local climate science and unique climate impacts, (2) working with Key Influentials in diverse ways, including educational both formal and informal dialogues for this non-traditional audience, developing climate education messages to be delivered by KIs to their peers and their communities, and engaging certain KIs to be the portal to their constituents; and (3) using social media to connect educators and their audiences.

Local indicators of climate change: The potential contribution of local knowledge to climate research

PubMed Central

Reyes-García, Victoria; Fernández-Llamazares, Álvaro; Guèze, Maximilien; Garcés, Ariadna; Mallo, Miguel; Vila-Gómez, Margarita; Vilaseca, Marina

2016-01-01

Local knowledge has been proposed as a place-based tool to ground-truth climate models and to narrow their geographic sensitivity. To assess the potential role of local knowledge in our quest to understand better climate change and its impacts, we first need to critically review the strengths and weaknesses of local knowledge of climate change and the potential complementarity with scientific knowledge. With this aim, we conducted a systematic, quantitative meta-analysis of published peer-reviewed documents reporting local indicators of climate change (including both local observations of climate change and observed impacts on the biophysical and the social systems). Overall, primary data on the topic are not abundant, the methodological development is incipient, and the geographical extent is unbalanced. On the 98 case studies documented, we recorded the mention of 746 local indicators of climate change, mostly corresponding to local observations of climate change (40%), but also to observed impacts on the physical (23%), the biological (19%), and the socioeconomic (18%) systems. Our results suggest that, even if local observations of climate change are the most frequently reported type of change, the rich and fine-grained knowledge in relation to impacts on biophysical systems could provide more original contributions to our understanding of climate change at local scale. PMID:27642368

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance

PubMed Central

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-01-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change. PMID:23467649

Climatic change controls productivity variation in global grasslands

PubMed Central

Gao, Qingzhu; Zhu, Wenquan; Schwartz, Mark W.; Ganjurjav, Hasbagan; Wan, Yunfan; Qin, Xiaobo; Ma, Xin; Williamson, Matthew A.; Li, Yue

2016-01-01

Detection and identification of the impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been core issues in climate change research in recent years. In this study, we compared average annual values of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with theoretical net primary productivity (NPP) values based on temperature and precipitation to determine the effect of historic climate change on global grassland productivity from 1982 to 2011. Comparison of trends in actual productivity (NDVI) with climate-induced potential productivity showed that the trends in average productivity in nearly 40% of global grassland areas have been significantly affected by climate change. The contribution of climate change to variability in grassland productivity was 15.2–71.2% during 1982–2011. Climate change contributed significantly to long-term trends in grassland productivity mainly in North America, central Eurasia, central Africa, and Oceania; these regions will be more sensitive to future climate change impacts. The impacts of climate change on variability in grassland productivity were greater in the Western Hemisphere than the Eastern Hemisphere. Confirmation of the observed trends requires long-term controlled experiments and multi-model ensembles to reduce uncertainties and explain mechanisms. PMID:27243565

A community based approach to improving resilience of forests and water resources: A local and regional climate adaptation methodology

Treesearch

Toby Thaler; Gwen Griffith; Nancy Gilliam

2014-01-01

Forest-based ecosystem services are at risk from human-caused stressors, including climate change. Improving governance and management of forests to reduce impacts and increase community resilience to all stressors is the objective of forest-related climate change adaptation. The Model Forest Policy Program (MFPP) has applied one method designed to meet this objective...

Climate-change impacts on sandy-beach biota: crossing a line in the sand.

PubMed

Schoeman, David S; Schlacher, Thomas A; Defeo, Omar

2014-08-01

Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under-represented in the literature on climate-change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate-change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate-change impacts on sandy-shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate-change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate-change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate-change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.

Inspiring Inquiry: Scientists, science teachers, and GK-12 students learning climate science together

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stwertka, C.; Blonquist, J.; Feener, D.

2010-12-01

A major communication gap exists between climate scientists, educators, and society. As a result, findings from climate research, potential implications of climate change, and possible mitigation strategies are not fully understood and accepted outside of the climate science community. A good way to begin bridging the gap is to teach climate science to students in public schools. TGLL (Think Globally, Learn Locally) is an NSF GK-12 program based at the University of Utah, which partners graduate students in the biological, geological and atmospheric sciences with middle and high school teachers in the Salt Lake City School District to improve the communication skills of Fellows and enhance inquiry-based science teaching and learning in the classroom. Each TGLL Fellow works in the same classroom(s) throughout the year, developing his or her scientific communication skills while providing teachers with content knowledge, resources, classroom support, and enhancing the experience of students such that science becomes an interesting and accessible tool for acquiring knowledge. The TGLL Fellows work closely as a group to develop inquiry-based teaching modules (a series of lessons) and a field trip that involve students in doing authentic science. Lessons are designed to apply national and Utah core curriculum concepts to broader scientific issues such as habitat alteration, pollution and disturbance, invasive species, and infectious disease, with the focus of the 2010-2011 school year being climate change. The TGLL Global Climate Change module contains lesson plans on climate temporal and spatial scales, temperature variation, energy balance, the carbon cycle, the greenhouse effect, climate feedback loops, anthropogenic climate change indicators, climate change consequences and impacts, and actions students can take to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The capstone experience for the module is a “Backyard Climate Change” field trip to a local pristine canyon. Students will map and measure the carbon dioxide flux of various ecosystem components, measure the albedo of various surfaces, learn about micro-scale climates and atmospheric pollen transport, measure water and air quality, and observe habitat alteration. Through the module and fieldtrip, TGLL Fellows aim to build student and teacher knowledge about climate change and create lasting projects that are adapted into the core science curriculum.

The hydroclimatological response to global warming based on the dynamically downscaled climate change scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Felippo

2010-05-01

Given the discernable evidences of climate changes due to human activity, there is a growing demand for the reliable climate change scenario in response to future emission forcing. One of the most significant impacts of climate changes can be that on the hydrological process. Changes in the seasonality and increase in the low and high rainfall extremes can severely influence the water balance of river basin, with serious consequences for societies and ecosystems. In fact, recent studies have reported that East Asia including the Korean peninsula is regarded to be a highly vulnerability region under global warming, in particular for water resources. As an attempt accurately assess the impact of climate change over Korea, we performed a downscaling of the ECAHM5-MPI/OM global projection under the A1B emission scenario for the period 1971-2100 using the RegCM3 one-way double-nested system. Physically based long-term (130 years) fine-scale (20 km) climate information is appropriate for analyzing the detailed structure of the hydroclimatological response to climate change. Changes in temperature and precipitation are translated to the hydrological condition in a direct or indirect way. The change in precipitation shows a distinct seasonal variations and a complicated spatial pattern. While changes in total precipitation do not show any relevant trend, the change patterns in daily precipitation clearly show an enhancement of high intensity precipitation and a reduction of weak intensity precipitation. The increase of temperature enhances the evapotranspiration, and hence the actual water stress becomes more pronounced in the future climate. Precipitation, snow, and runoff changes show the relevant topographical modulation under global warming. This study clearly demonstrates the importance of a refined topography for improving the accuracy of the local climatology. Improved accuracy of regional climate projection could lead to an enhanced reliability of the interpretation of the warming effect, especially when viewed in the linkage climate change information and impact assessment studies.

Communicating the Results and Activities of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, K.; Parker, K.

2004-12-01

The Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) has a responsibility for credible and effective communications on issues related to climate variability and climate change science. As an essential part of its mission and responsibilities, the CCSP aims to enhance the quality of public discussion by stressing openness and transparency in its scientific research processes and results, and ensuring the widespread availability of credible, science-based information. The CCSP and individual federal agencies generate substantial amounts of authoritative scientific information on climate variability and change. Research findings are generally well reported in the scientific literature, but relevant aspects of these findings need to be reported in formats suitable for use by diverse audiences whose understanding and familiarity with climate change science issues vary. To further its commitment to the effective communication of climate change science information, the CCSP has established the Communications Interagency Working Group, which has produced an implementation plan for Climate Change communication, aimed at achieving the following goals: * Disseminate the results of CCSP activities credibly and effectively * Make CCSP science findings and products easily available to a diverse set of audiences. In addition to CCSP efforts, the individual federal agencies that comprise CCSP disseminate science-based climate information through their agency networks. The agencies of the CCSP are the Departments of Agriculture, Commerce, Defense, Energy, Health and Human Services, Interior, State, and Transportation and the U.S. EPA, NASA, NSF, Smithsonian Institute, and USAID.

Energy Literacy: A Natural and Essential Part of a Solutions-Based Approach to Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inman, M. M.

2011-12-01

As with climate science topics, many Americans have misconceptions or gaps in understanding related to energy topics. Recent literacy efforts are geared to address these gaps in understanding. The U.S. Global Change Research Program's recently published "Energy Literacy: Essential Principles and Fundamental Concepts for Energy Education" offers a welcome complement to the Climate Literacy Essential Principles released in 2008. Research and experience suggest that education, communication and outreach about global climate change and related topics is best done using a solutions-based approach. Energy is a natural and effective topic to frame these solutions around. Used as a framework for designing curricula, Energy Literacy naturally leads to solutions-based approaches to Climate Change education. An inherently interdisciplinary topic, energy education must happen in the context of both the natural and social sciences. The Energy Literacy Essential Principles reflect this and open the door to curriculum that integrates the two.

Untangling climatic and autogenic signals in peat records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, Paul J.; Baird, Andrew J.; Young, Dylan M.; Swindles, Graeme T.

2016-04-01

Raised bogs contain potentially valuable information about Holocene climate change. However, autogenic processes may disconnect peatland hydrological behaviour from climate, and overwrite and degrade climatic signals in peat records. How can genuine climate signals be separated from autogenic changes? What level of detail of climatic information should we expect to be able to recover from peat-based reconstructions? We used an updated version of the DigiBog model to simulate peatland development and response to reconstructed Holocene rainfall and temperature reconstructions. The model represents key processes that are influential in peatland development and climate signal preservation, and includes a network of feedbacks between peat accumulation, decomposition, hydraulic structure and hydrological processes. It also incorporates the effects of temperature upon evapotranspiration, plant (litter) productivity and peat decomposition. Negative feedbacks in the model cause simulated water-table depths and peat humification records to exhibit homeostatic recovery from prescribed changes in rainfall, chiefly through changes in drainage. However, the simulated bogs show less resilience to changes in temperature, which cause lasting alterations to peatland structure and function and may therefore be more readily detectable in peat records. The network of feedbacks represented in DigiBog also provide both high- and low-pass filters for climatic information, meaning that the fidelity with which climate signals are preserved in simulated peatlands is determined by both the magnitude and the rate of climate change. Large-magnitude climatic events of an intermediate frequency (i.e., multi-decadal to centennial) are best preserved in the simulated bogs. We found that simulated humification records are further degraded by a phenomenon known as secondary decomposition. Decomposition signals are consistently offset from the climatic events that generate them, and decomposition records of dry-wet-dry climate sequences appear to be particularly vulnerable to overwriting. Our findings have direct implications not only for the interpretation of peat-based records of past climates, but also for understanding the likely vulnerability of peatland ecosystems and carbon stocks to future climate change.

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one. PMID:27015274

An Objective Approach to Select Climate Scenarios when Projecting Species Distribution under Climate Change.

PubMed

Casajus, Nicolas; Périé, Catherine; Logan, Travis; Lambert, Marie-Claude; de Blois, Sylvie; Berteaux, Dominique

2016-01-01

An impressive number of new climate change scenarios have recently become available to assess the ecological impacts of climate change. Among these impacts, shifts in species range analyzed with species distribution models are the most widely studied. Whereas it is widely recognized that the uncertainty in future climatic conditions must be taken into account in impact studies, many assessments of species range shifts still rely on just a few climate change scenarios, often selected arbitrarily. We describe a method to select objectively a subset of climate change scenarios among a large ensemble of available ones. Our k-means clustering approach reduces the number of climate change scenarios needed to project species distributions, while retaining the coverage of uncertainty in future climate conditions. We first show, for three biologically-relevant climatic variables, that a reduced number of six climate change scenarios generates average climatic conditions very close to those obtained from a set of 27 scenarios available before reduction. A case study on potential gains and losses of habitat by three northeastern American tree species shows that potential future species distributions projected from the selected six climate change scenarios are very similar to those obtained from the full set of 27, although with some spatial discrepancies at the edges of species distributions. In contrast, projections based on just a few climate models vary strongly according to the initial choice of climate models. We give clear guidance on how to reduce the number of climate change scenarios while retaining the central tendencies and coverage of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. This should be particularly useful during future climate change impact studies as more than twice as many climate models were reported in the fifth assessment report of IPCC compared to the previous one.

Assessing agreement among alternative climate change projections to inform conservation recommendations in the contiguous United States.

PubMed

Belote, R Travis; Carroll, Carlos; Martinuzzi, Sebastián; Michalak, Julia; Williams, John W; Williamson, Matthew A; Aplet, Gregory H

2018-06-21

Addressing uncertainties in climate vulnerability remains a challenge for conservation planning. We evaluate how confidence in conservation recommendations may change with agreement among alternative climate projections and metrics of climate exposure. We assessed agreement among three multivariate estimates of climate exposure (forward velocity, backward velocity, and climate dissimilarity) using 18 alternative climate projections for the contiguous United States. For each metric, we classified maps into quartiles for each alternative climate projections, and calculated the frequency of quartiles assigned for each gridded location (high quartile frequency = more agreement among climate projections). We evaluated recommendations using a recent climate adaptation heuristic framework that recommends emphasizing various conservation strategies to land based on current conservation value and expected climate exposure. We found that areas where conservation strategies would be confidently assigned based on high agreement among climate projections varied substantially across regions. In general, there was more agreement in forward and backward velocity estimates among alternative projections than agreement in estimates of local dissimilarity. Consensus of climate predictions resulted in the same conservation recommendation assignments in a few areas, but patterns varied by climate exposure metric. This work demonstrates an approach for explicitly evaluating alternative predictions in geographic patterns of climate change.

Projecting the global distribution of the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen, batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, based on IPCC climate futures

Treesearch

Gisselle Yang Xie; Deanna H. Olson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate...

Lichen communities and species indicate climate thresholds in southeast and south-central Alaska, USA

Treesearch

Heather T. Root; Bruce McCune; Sarah Jovan

2014-01-01

Because of their unique physiology, lichen communities are highly sensitive to climatic conditions,making them ideal bioindicators for climate change. Southeast and south-central Alaska host diverse and abundant lichen communities and are faced with a more rapidly changing climate than many more southerly latitudes. We develop sensitive lichen-based indicators for...

Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species: implications under climate change

Treesearch

Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Michael C. Dietze

2008-01-01

As changes in climate become more apparent, ecologists face the challenge of predicting species responses to the new conditions. Most forecasts are based on climate envelopes (CE), correlative approaches that project future distributions on the basis of the current climate often assuming some dispersal lag. One major caveat with this approach is that it ignores the...

Engaging Chicago residents in climate change action: Results from Rapid Ethnographic Inquiry

Treesearch

Lynne M. Westphal; Jennifer Hirsch

2010-01-01

Addressing climate change requires action at all levels of society, from neighborhood to international levels. Using Rapid Ethnography rooted in Asset Based Community Development theory, we investigated climate-friendly attitudes and behaviors in two Chicago neighborhoods in order to assist the City with implementation of its Climate Action Plan. Our research suggests...

Verification of GCM-generated regional seasonal precipitation for current climate and of statistical downscaling estimates under changing climate conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Busuioc, A.; Storch, H. von; Schnur, R.

Empirical downscaling procedures relate large-scale atmospheric features with local features such as station rainfall in order to facilitate local scenarios of climate change. The purpose of the present paper is twofold: first, a downscaling technique is used as a diagnostic tool to verify the performance of climate models on the regional scale; second, a technique is proposed for verifying the validity of empirical downscaling procedures in climate change applications. The case considered is regional seasonal precipitation in Romania. The downscaling model is a regression based on canonical correlation analysis between observed station precipitation and European-scale sea level pressure (SLP). Themore » climate models considered here are the T21 and T42 versions of the Hamburg ECHAM3 atmospheric GCM run in time-slice mode. The climate change scenario refers to the expected time of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations around the year 2050. Generally, applications of statistical downscaling to climate change scenarios have been based on the assumption that the empirical link between the large-scale and regional parameters remains valid under a changed climate. In this study, a rationale is proposed for this assumption by showing the consistency of the 2 x CO{sub 2} GCM scenarios in winter, derived directly from the gridpoint data, with the regional scenarios obtained through empirical downscaling. Since the skill of the GCMs in regional terms is already established, it is concluded that the downscaling technique is adequate for describing climatically changing regional and local conditions, at least for precipitation in Romania during winter.« less

ICLUS v1.3 Population Projections

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate and land-use change are major components of global environmental change with feedbacks between these components. The consequences of these interactions show that land use may exacerbate or alleviate climate change effects. Based on these findings it is important to use land-use scenarios that are consistent with the specific assumptions underlying climate-change scenarios. The Integrated Climate and Land-Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project developed land-use outputs that are based on a downscaled version of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) social, economic, and demographic storylines. ICLUS outputs are derived from a pair of models. A demographic model generates county-level population estimates that are distributed by a spatial allocation model (SERGoM v3) as housing density across the landscape. Land-use outputs were developed for the four main SRES storylines and a baseline (base case). The model is run for the conterminous USA and output is available for each scenario by decade to 2100. In addition to housing density at a 1 hectare spatial resolution, this project also generated estimates of impervious surface at a resolution of 1 square kilometer. This shapefile holds population data for all counties of the conterminous USA for all decades (2010-2100) and SRES population growth scenarios (A1, A2, B1, B2), as well as a 'base case' (BC) scenario, for use in the Integrated Climate and Land Use

Effects of land-use and climate on Holocene vegetation composition in northern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquer, Laurent; Gaillard, Marie-José; Sugita, Shinya; Poska, Anneli; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Mazier, Florence; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Fyfe, Ralph; Jönsson, Anna Maria

2016-04-01

Prior to the advent of agriculture, broad-scale vegetation patterns in Europe were controlled primarily by climate. Early agriculture can be detected in palaeovegetation records, but the relative extent to which past regional vegetation was climatically or anthropogenically-forced is of current scientific interest. Using comparisons of transformed pollen data, climate-model data, dynamic vegetation model simulations and anthropogenic land-cover change data, this study aims to estimate the relative impacts of human activities and climate on the Holocene vegetation composition of northern Europe at a subcontinental scale. The REVEALS model was used for pollen-based quantitative reconstruction of vegetation (RV). Climate variables from ECHAM and the extent of human deforestation from KK10 were used as explanatory variables to evaluate their respective impacts on RV. Indices of vegetation-composition changes based on RV and climate-induced vegetation simulated by the LPJ-GUESS model (LPJG) were used to assess the relative importance of climate and anthropogenic impacts. The results show that climate is the major predictor of Holocene vegetation changes until 5000 years ago. The similarity in rate of change and turnover between RV and LPJG decreases after this time. Changes in RV explained by climate and KK10 vary for the last 2000 years; the similarity in rate of change, turnover, and evenness between RV and LPJG decreases to the present. The main conclusions provide important insights on Neolithic forest clearances that affected regional vegetation from 6700 years ago, although climate (temperature and precipitation) still was a major driver of vegetation change (explains 37% of the variation) at the subcontinental scale. Land use became more important around 5000-4000 years ago, while the influence of climate decreased (explains 28% of the variation). Land-use affects all indices of vegetation compositional change during the last 2000 years; the influence of climate on vegetation, although reduced, remains at 16% until modern time while land-use explains 7%, which underlines that North-European vegetation is still climatically sensitive and, therefore, responds strongly to ongoing climate change.

Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa.

PubMed

Mukwada, Geoffrey; Manatsa, Desmond

2018-05-24

The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.

Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate Online Course: An Effective Tool for Creating Extension Competency

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitefield, Elizabeth; Schmidt, David; Witt-Swanson, Lindsay; Smith, David; Pronto, Jennifer; Knox, Pam; Powers, Crystal

2016-01-01

There is a need to create competency among Extension professionals on the topic of climate change adaptation and mitigation in animal agriculture. The Animal Agriculture in a Changing Climate online course provides an easily accessible, user-friendly, free, and interactive experience for learning science-based information on a national and…

Model-based scenario planning to develop climate change adaptation strategies for rare plant populations in grassland reserves

Treesearch

Laura Phillips-Mao; Susan M. Galatowitsch; Stephanie A. Snyder; Robert G. Haight

2016-01-01

Incorporating climate change into conservation decision-making at site and population scales is challenging due to uncertainties associated with localized climate change impacts and population responses to multiple interacting impacts and adaptation strategies. We explore the use of spatially explicit population models to facilitate scenario analysis, a conservation...

Adaptations to climate change: Colville and Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forests

Treesearch

William L. Gaines; David W. Peterson; Cameron A. Thomas; Richy J. Harrod

2012-01-01

Forest managers are seeking practical guidance on how to adapt their current practices and, if necessary, their management goals, in response to climate change. Science-management collaboration was initiated on national forests in eastern Washington where resource managers showed a keen interest in science-based options for adapting to climate change at a 2-day...

Risk Analysis of Near-Coastal Species of the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Study Comparing Risks Associated with Two Future Climate Scenarios

EPA Science Inventory

Fundamental questions for climate change policy and adaptation strategies are to what extent does ecological risk change under different climate scenarios and how do any changes in risk vary among taxa and geographically. To evaluate these questions, we developed a rule-based fra...

Effects of climate change on natural resources and communities: a compendium of briefing papers

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Evan Mercer

2011-01-01

This report is a compilation of four briefing papers based on literature reviews and syntheses, prepared for USDA Forest Service policy analysts and decisionmakers about specific questions pertaining to climate change. The main topics addressed here are effects of climate change on wildlife habitat, other ecosystem services, and land values; socioeconomic impacts of...

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

PubMed Central

Olson, Deanna H.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats. PMID:27513565

Climate variability and vulnerability to climate change: a review

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K; Ericksen, Polly J; Herrero, Mario; Challinor, Andrew J

2014-01-01

The focus of the great majority of climate change impact studies is on changes in mean climate. In terms of climate model output, these changes are more robust than changes in climate variability. By concentrating on changes in climate means, the full impacts of climate change on biological and human systems are probably being seriously underestimated. Here, we briefly review the possible impacts of changes in climate variability and the frequency of extreme events on biological and food systems, with a focus on the developing world. We present new analysis that tentatively links increases in climate variability with increasing food insecurity in the future. We consider the ways in which people deal with climate variability and extremes and how they may adapt in the future. Key knowledge and data gaps are highlighted. These include the timing and interactions of different climatic stresses on plant growth and development, particularly at higher temperatures, and the impacts on crops, livestock and farming systems of changes in climate variability and extreme events on pest-weed-disease complexes. We highlight the need to reframe research questions in such a way that they can provide decision makers throughout the food system with actionable answers, and the need for investment in climate and environmental monitoring. Improved understanding of the full range of impacts of climate change on biological and food systems is a critical step in being able to address effectively the effects of climate variability and extreme events on human vulnerability and food security, particularly in agriculturally based developing countries facing the challenge of having to feed rapidly growing populations in the coming decades. PMID:24668802

Climate Change Signals in the EURO-CORDEX Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacob, Daniela; Preuschmann, Swantje

2014-05-01

A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. Within this presentation, the first results on climate change signals based on simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 will be presented. The new EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The presentation is based on the results of the Paper JACOB et al. (2013). We concentrated on the statistical analysis of robustness and significance of the climate change signals for mean annual and seasonal temperature, total annual and seasonal precipitation, heavy precipitation, heat waves and dry spells, by using daily data for three time periods: 1971-2000, 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities. The analysis of projected changes in the 95th percentile of the mean length of dry spells shows similar patterns for all scenarios. The climate projections from the new ensemble indicate a reduced northwards shift of Mediterranean drying evolution and slightly stronger mean precipitation increases over most of Europe. Within the high-resolution simulations in the EURO-CORDEX changes of the pattern for heavy precipitation events are clearly visible. (Jacob2013) Jacob, D.; Petersen, J.; Eggert, B.; Alias, A.; Christensen, O. B.; Bouwer, L.; Braun, A.; Colette, A.; Déqué, M.; Georgievski, G.; Georgopoulou, E.; Gobiet, A.; Menut, L.; Nikulin, G.; Haensler, A.; Hempelmann, N.; Jones, C.; Keuler, K.; Kovats, S.; Kröner, N.; Kotlarski, S.; Kriegsmann, A.; Martin, E.; Meijgaard, E.; Moseley, C.; Pfeifer, S.; Preuschmann, S.; Radermacher, C.; Radtke, K.; Rechid, D.; Rounsevell, M.; Samuelsson, P.; Somot, S.; Soussana, J.-F.; Teichmann, C.; Valentini, R.; Vautard, R.; Weber, B. & Yiou, P.( 2013): EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research Regional Environmental Change, Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2013, 1-16.

Domestic and International Climate Migration from Rural Mexico

PubMed Central

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Runfola, Daniel M.; Hunter, Lori M.; Riosmena, Fernando

2016-01-01

Evidence is increasing that climate change and variability may influence human migration patterns. However, there is less agreement regarding the type of migration streams most strongly impacted. This study tests whether climate change more strongly impacted international compared to domestic migration from rural Mexico during 1986-99. We employ eight temperature and precipitation-based climate change indices linked to detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project. Results from multilevel discrete-time event-history models challenge the assumption that climate-related migration will be predominantly short distance and domestic, but instead show that climate change more strongly impacted international moves from rural Mexico. The stronger climate impact on international migration may be explained by the self-insurance function of international migration, the presence of strong migrant networks, and climate-related changes in wage difference. While a warming in temperature increased international outmigration, higher levels of precipitation declined the odds of an international move. PMID:28439146

Climate: Policy, Modeling, and Federal Priorities (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koonin, S.; Department Of Energy Office Of The Under SecretaryScience

2010-12-01

The Administration has set ambitious national goals to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The US and other countries involved in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change continue to work toward a goal of establishing a viable treaty that would encompass limits on emissions and codify actions that nations would take to reduce emissions. These negotiations are informed by the science of climate change and by our understanding of how changes in technology and the economy might affect the overall climate in the future. I will describe the present efforts within the U.S. Department of Energy, and the federal government more generally, to address issues related to climate change. These include state-of-the-art climate modeling and uncertainty assessment, economic and climate scenario planning based on best estimates of different technology trajectories, adaption strategies for climate change, and monitoring and reporting for treaty verification.

Domestic and International Climate Migration from Rural Mexico.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Runfola, Daniel M; Hunter, Lori M; Riosmena, Fernando

2016-12-01

Evidence is increasing that climate change and variability may influence human migration patterns. However, there is less agreement regarding the type of migration streams most strongly impacted. This study tests whether climate change more strongly impacted international compared to domestic migration from rural Mexico during 1986-99. We employ eight temperature and precipitation-based climate change indices linked to detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project. Results from multilevel discrete-time event-history models challenge the assumption that climate-related migration will be predominantly short distance and domestic, but instead show that climate change more strongly impacted international moves from rural Mexico. The stronger climate impact on international migration may be explained by the self-insurance function of international migration, the presence of strong migrant networks, and climate-related changes in wage difference. While a warming in temperature increased international outmigration, higher levels of precipitation declined the odds of an international move.

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center presents Enhancing Standards Based Science Curriculum through NASA Content Relevancy: A Model for Sustainable Teaching-Research Integration Dr. Robert Gabrys, Raquel Marshall, Dr. Evelina Felicite-Maurice, Erin McKinley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marshall, R. H.; Gabrys, R.

2016-12-01

NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has developed a systemic educator professional development model for the integration of NASA climate change resources into the K-12 classroom. The desired outcome of this model is to prepare teachers in STEM disciplines to be globally engaged and knowledgeable of current climate change research and its potential for content relevancy alignment to standard-based curriculum. The application and mapping of the model is based on the state education needs assessment, alignment to the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), and implementation framework developed by the consortium of district superintendents and their science supervisors. In this presentation, we will demonstrate best practices for extending the concept of inquiry-based and project-based learning through the integration of current NASA climate change research into curriculum unit lessons. This model includes a significant teacher development component focused on capacity development for teacher instruction and pedagogy aimed at aligning NASA climate change research to related NGSS student performance expectations and subsequent Crosscutting Concepts, Science and Engineering Practices, and Disciplinary Core Ideas, a need that was presented by the district steering committee as critical for ensuring sustainability and high-impact in the classroom. This model offers a collaborative and inclusive learning community that connects classroom teachers to NASA climate change researchers via an ongoing consultant/mentoring approach. As a result of the first year of implementation of this model, Maryland teachers are implementing NGSS unit lessons that guide students in open-ended research based on current NASA climate change research.

Climate Hazard Assessment for Stakeholder Adaptation Planning in New York City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horton, Radley M.; Gornitz, Vivien; Bader, Daniel A.; Ruane, Alex C.; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2011-01-01

This paper describes a time-sensitive approach to climate change projections, developed as part of New York City's climate change adaptation process, that has provided decision support to stakeholders from 40 agencies, regional planning associations, and private companies. The approach optimizes production of projections given constraints faced by decision makers as they incorporate climate change into long-term planning and policy. New York City stakeholders, who are well-versed in risk management, helped pre-select the climate variables most likely to impact urban infrastructure, and requested a projection range rather than a single 'most likely' outcome. The climate projections approach is transferable to other regions and consistent with broader efforts to provide climate services, including impact, vulnerability, and adaptation information. The approach uses 16 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and three emissions scenarios to calculate monthly change factors based on 30-year average future time slices relative to a 30- year model baseline. Projecting these model mean changes onto observed station data for New York City yields dramatic changes in the frequency of extreme events such as coastal flooding and dangerous heat events. Based on these methods, the current 1-in-10 year coastal flood is projected to occur more than once every 3 years by the end of the century, and heat events are projected to approximately triple in frequency. These frequency changes are of sufficient magnitude to merit consideration in long-term adaptation planning, even though the precise changes in extreme event frequency are highly uncertain

Adapting Natural Resource Management to Climate Change: The Blue Mountains and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2014-12-01

Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and other key stakeholders in the Blue Mountains region of northeastern Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

2015-04-01

It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The established precipitation-ETo covariations are used to inform the scenario construction process. Additionally, the back-tracking of extreme flows from driving scenarios allows for a diagnosis of the physical responses to climate change scenarios. The method is demonstrated through the application of scenarios from 10 Regional Climate Models,21 Global Climate Models and selected catchments in central Belgium. Reference Ntegeka, V., Baguis, P., Roulin, E., & Willems, P. (2014). Developing tailored climate change scenarios for hydrological impact assessments. Journal of Hydrology, 508, 307-321.

Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: A bird’s eye view

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Joseph J.; Decker, Karie L.; Skagen, Susan K.; van Riper, Charles

2009-01-01

Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in temperature and precipitation differ significantly between spring migration habitats in the desert southwest and breeding habitats throughout western North America. Such differences may ultimately increase costs to individual birds and thereby threaten the long-term population viability of many species.

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

2016-06-01

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

Merger of three modeling approaches to assess potential effects of climate change on trees in the eastern United States

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2010-01-01

Climate change will likely cause impacts that are species specific and significant; modeling is critical to better understand potential changes in suitable habitat. We use empirical, abundance-based habitat models utilizing decision tree-based ensemble methods to explore potential changes of 134 tree species habitats in the eastern United States (http://www.nrs.fs.fed....

As the Climate Changes: Intergenerational Action-Based Learning in Relation to Flood Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Sara; McEwen, Lindsey J.; Quinn, Nevil

2017-01-01

It is a concern that children represent an under-researched group in flood education and preparedness because as adults they are more likely to experience flooding as the climate changes, and because it suggests their potential today, as agents of change, is being undervalued. Using action-based, participatory methodology with seven to…

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral assessment of climate change impacts on operational performance of a multipurpose reservoir

Treesearch

Allison G. Danner; Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Charlotte Wickham; Desirée Tullos; Mary V. Santelmann

2017-01-01

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology....

Paddy rice productivity under climate and land-use change in northern Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yoshida, R.; Fukui, S.; Shimada, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Iwasaki, T.

2013-12-01

An evaluation of the best rice cultivar under climate change is an important issue because the projected climate change has a potential to bring a negative impact on crop yield. In this study, we estimate an impact of climate change on rice yield and potential best cultivar in northern Japan where the larger paddy field is located than other regions in Japan. Two global climate model data, MIROC5 (RCP 4.5) and MRI-AGCM (SRES A1B), are applied as the future scenario. These data are too coarse to resolve the regional differences in northern Japan; we conduct the downscale experiments by a regional climate model (JMA-NHM) with a 10-km grid spacing. Considering that rice yield is sensitive to warm season climate, we conduct the downscaling from 28th May to 1st September during 1981-2000 and 2081-2099. The biases of downscaled two scenarios are corrected to match their cumulative distribution functions (CDF) of present climate with that of the station-based observation. The derived CDF-based biases are also used to correct the future scenarios. These corrected scenarios are applied to rice growth model (NIAES-Rice). To take account for the impacts of land use change (LUC) on climate and rice yield, we consider the additional temperature changes due to the LUC. As a reference, we add the LUC-induced temperature change in southwest Japan because the data are available from the previous study. We first check the climate change in northern Japan. General tendencies derived from the bias-corrected-downscaled future climates are that 1) surface warming was approximately twice in low elevation area relative to mountainous area and 2) downward shortwave radiation homogeneously increased 7-8 W m-2. Then, we evaluated the simulated yield through comparing with observation. Using observed ambient conditions as input data, the NIAES-Rice model provides the reasonable performance in simulating the rice yield with biases ranging from -19.0 to 29.2 % in prefecture base. Climate changes enhance the rice yield for 'Koshihikari' from 372.4 to 388.1 g/10a. The cultivar is planted in half of prefectures in Japan. For each analysis grid, we chose the cultivar that held the largest yield among the 10 analyzed cultivars and found that the location of cultivar that achieves the largest yields shifted northward in future climate. Also, the grids that cultivar developed in central Japan become the largest yield among 10 cultivars increase more than triple in the future climate. A LUC-induced temperature impact on prefecture-based yield corresponds to about 18 % of the climate-change-induced yield change, ranging from 0.6 to 33.5 % for six prefectures in the analyzed area. There is unclear tendency between the present rice yield amount and the intensity of LUC impact. However, surface warming due to urbanization decrease the rice yield in all six prefectures. Thus land use management and planting cultivar change are essential for stable food security.

Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

2014-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by changing the food price or food supply. Changes in river runoff can also make an impact on the hydropower efficiency. Comprehensive pictures of climate risks and their interconnections are clearly shown in a straightforward manner by the network diagram. We will have a discussion how our results can be helpful for our society to recognize the climate risk.

Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health.

PubMed

Gutierrez, Kristie S; LePrevost, Catherine E

2016-02-03

Climate justice is a local, national, and global movement to protect at-risk populations who are disproportionately affected by climate change. The social context for this review is the Southeastern region of the United States, which is particularly susceptible to climate change because of the geography of the area and the vulnerabilities of the inhabiting populations. Negative human health effects on variable and vulnerable populations within the Southeast region due to changing climate are concerning, as health threats are not expected to produce parallel effects among all individuals. Vulnerable communities, such as communities of color, indigenous people, the geographically isolated, and those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and already experiencing poor environmental quality, are least able to respond and adapt to climate change. Focusing on vulnerable populations in the Southeastern United States, this review is a synthesis of the recent (2010 to 2015) literature-base on the health effects connected to climate change. This review also addresses local and regional mitigation and adaptation strategies for citizens and leaders to combat direct and indirect human health effects related to a changing climate.

Climate change risk analysis framework (CCRAF) a probabilistic tool for analyzing climate change uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legget, J.; Pepper, W.; Sankovski, A.; Smith, J.; Tol, R.; Wigley, T.

2003-04-01

Potential risks of human-induced climate change are subject to a three-fold uncertainty associated with: the extent of future anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions; global and regional climatic responses to emissions; and impacts of climatic changes on economies and the biosphere. Long-term analyses are also subject to uncertainty regarding how humans will respond to actual or perceived changes, through adaptation or mitigation efforts. Explicitly addressing these uncertainties is a high priority in the scientific and policy communities Probabilistic modeling is gaining momentum as a technique to quantify uncertainties explicitly and use decision analysis techniques that take advantage of improved risk information. The Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework (CCRAF) presented here a new integrative tool that combines the probabilistic approaches developed in population, energy and economic sciences with empirical data and probabilistic results of climate and impact models. The main CCRAF objective is to assess global climate change as a risk management challenge and to provide insights regarding robust policies that address the risks, by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and by adapting to climate change consequences. The CCRAF endogenously simulates to 2100 or beyond annual region-specific changes in population; GDP; primary (by fuel) and final energy (by type) use; a wide set of associated GHG emissions; GHG concentrations; global temperature change and sea level rise; economic, health, and biospheric impacts; costs of mitigation and adaptation measures and residual costs or benefits of climate change. Atmospheric and climate components of CCRAF are formulated based on the latest version of Wigley's and Raper's MAGICC model and impacts are simulated based on a modified version of Tol's FUND model. The CCRAF is based on series of log-linear equations with deterministic and random components and is implemented using a Monte-Carlo method with up to 5000 variants per set of fixed input parameters. The shape and coefficients of CCRAF equations are derived from regression analyses of historic data and expert assessments. There are two types of random components in CCRAF - one reflects a year-to-year fluctuations around the expected value of a given variable (e.g., standard error of the annual GDP growth) and another is fixed within each CCRAF variant and represents some essential constants within a "world" represented by that variant (e.g., the value of climate sensitivity). Both types of random components are drawn from pre-defined probability distributions functions developed based on historic data or expert assessments. Preliminary CCRAF results emphasize the relative importance of uncertainties associated with the conversion of GHG and particulate emissions into radiative forcing and quantifying climate change effects at the regional level. A separates analysis involves an "adaptive decision-making", which optimizes the expected future policy effects given the estimated probabilistic uncertainties. As uncertainty for some variables evolve over the time steps, the decisions also adapt. This modeling approach is feasible only with explicit modeling of uncertainties.

Analyses of historical and projected climates to support climate adaptation in the northern Rocky Mountains: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gross, John E.; Tercek, Michael; Guay, Kevin; Chang, Tony; Talbert, Marian; Rodman, Ann; Thoma, David; Jantz, Patrick; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2016-01-01

Most of the western United States is experiencing the effects of rapid and directional climate change (Garfin et al. 2013). These effects, along with forecasts of profound changes in the future, provide strong motivation for resource managers to learn about and prepare for future changes. Climate adaptation plans are based on an understanding of historic climate variation and their effects on ecosystems and on forecasts of future climate trends. Frameworks for climate adaptation thus universally identify the importance of a summary of historical, current, and projected climates (Glick, Stein, and Edelson 2011; Cross et al. 2013; Stein et al. 2014). Trends in physical climate variables are usually the basis for evaluating the exposure component in vulnerability assessments. Thus, this chapter focuses on step 2 of the Climate-Smart Conservation framework (chap. 2): vulnerability assessment. We present analyses of historical and current observations of temperature, precipitation, and other key climate measurements to provide context and a baseline for interpreting the ecological impacts of projected climate changes.

Influence of Geographic Factors on the Life Cycle Climate Change Impacts of Renewable Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortier, M. O. P.

2017-12-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a valuable tool to measure the cradle-to-grave climate change impacts of the sustainable energy systems that are planned to replace conventional fossil energy-based systems. The recent inclusion of geographic specificity in bioenergy LCAs has shown that the relative sustainability of these energy sources is often dependent on geographic factors, such as the climate change impact of changing the land cover and local resource availability. However, this development has not yet been implemented to most LCAs of energy systems that do not have biological feedstocks, such as wind, water, and solar-based energy systems. For example, the tidal velocity where tidal rotors are installed can significantly alter the life cycle climate change impacts of electricity generated using the same technology in different locations. For LCAs of solar updraft towers, the albedo change impacts arising from changing the reflectivity of the land that would be converted can be of the same magnitude as other life cycle process climate change impacts. Improvements to determining the life cycle climate change impacts of renewable energy technologies can be made by utilizing GIS and satellite data and by conducting site-specific analyses. This practice can enhance our understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of technologies that are aimed to reduce the impacts of our current energy systems, and it can improve the siting of new systems to optimize a reduction in climate change impacts.

Providing rapid climate risk assessments to support cities (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.; Horton, R. M.; Bader, D.; Ali, S.

2013-12-01

Hurricane Sandy struck the East Coast of the United States on October 29, 2012 and brought the issue of urban resilience to the forefront of public discussion not only in New York City, but in cities around the world. While Hurricane Sandy as an individual extreme climate event cannot be attributed to climate change, it can serve as a warning for cities regarding disaster risks, focus attention on the importance of reducing climate vulnerability, and the need to include increasing climate risks and resilience into rebuilding programs. As severe as Sandy was, the the storm could have been much worse. The science behind potential impacts was ';in place' and ';in time,' i.e., climate risks were well understood before the storm, due to work by scientists in the region starting in the late 1990s. In the wake of this transformative storm, the rebuilding process in New York is being informed by the potential for a changing climate. The $20 billion Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR) Plan for New York is grounded upon climate risk information provided by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC). This expert panel, tasked with advising on the City on climate-related issues, completed a 'rapid response' climate assessment with updated climate projections and coastal flood maps. Cities are emerging as the ';first responders' to climate change in both adaptation and mitigation. Their efforts are playing a role in catalyzing national and international responses as well. New York City's actions in the wake of Hurricane Sandy are an example of a positive tipping-point response. The Urban Climate Change Research Network, a consortium of over 450 scholars and practitioners in developing and developed country cities around the world, was established in 2007 to enhance science-based decision-making on climate and other sustainability related issues in urban areas around the world. The UCCRN's first major publication is the First UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3), which represents a four-year effort by 110 authors from 50+ cities around the world, and is the first ever global, interdisciplinary, science-based assessment to address climate risks, adaptation, mitigation, and policy mechanisms relevant to cities. The UCCRN has initiated the process of developing the Second UCCRN Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2), to facilitate ongoing and active learning and to continue providing practical, evidence-based guidance for city decision-makers.

Predicting Vulnerabilities of North American Shorebirds to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W.; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J. Michael

2014-01-01

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at–risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners–in–Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower–risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change. PMID:25268907

Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.

PubMed

Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J Michael

2014-01-01

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

Predicting the relatiave vulnerability of near-coastal species to climate change using a rule-based ecoinformatics approach

EPA Science Inventory

Background/Questions/Methods Near-coastal species are threatened by multiple climate change drivers, including temperature increases, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. To identify vulnerable habitats, geographic regions, and species, we developed a sequential, rule-based...

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE PAGES

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-10-27

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-11-01

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparison between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between -12% and +15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

Modeling Climate Change in the Absence of Climate Change Data. Editorial Comment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Skiles, J. W.

1995-01-01

Practitioners of climate change prediction base many of their future climate scenarios on General Circulation Models (GCM's), each model with differing assumptions and parameter requirements. For representing the atmosphere, GCM's typically contain equations for calculating motion of particles, thermodynamics and radiation, and continuity of water vapor. Hydrology and heat balance are usually included for continents, and sea ice and heat balance are included for oceans. The current issue of this journal contains a paper by Van Blarcum et al. (1995) that predicts runoff from nine high-latitude rivers under a doubled CO2 atmosphere. The paper is important since river flow is an indicator variable for climate change. The authors show that precipitation will increase under the imposed perturbations and that owing to higher temperatures earlier in the year that cause the snow pack to melt sooner, runoff will also increase. They base their simulations on output from a GCM coupled with an interesting water routing scheme they have devised. Climate change models have been linked to other models to predict deforestation.

Engaging Students In The Science Of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhew, R. C.; Halversen, C.; Weiss, E.; Pedemonte, S.; Weirman, T.

2013-12-01

Climate change is arguably the defining environmental issue of our generation. It is thus increasingly necessary for every member of the global community to understand the basic underlying science of Earth's climate system and how it is changing in order to make informed, evidence-based decisions about how we will respond individually and as a society. Through exploration of the inextricable interconnection between Earth's ocean, atmosphere and climate, we believe students will be better prepared to tackle the complex issues surrounding the causes and effects of climate change and evaluate possible solutions. If students are also given opportunities to gather evidence from real data and use scientific argumentation to make evidence-based explanations about climate change, not only will they gain an increased understanding of the science concepts and science practices, the students will better comprehend the nature of climate change science. Engaging in argument from evidence is a scientific practice not only emphasized in the Framework for K-12 Science Education and the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS), but also emphasized in the Common Core State Standards for English Language Arts & Literacy in History/Social Studies and Science (CCSS). This significant overlap between NGSS and CCSS has implications for science and language arts classrooms, and should influence how we support and build students' expertise with this practice of sciences. The featured exemplary curricula supports middle school educators as they address climate change in their classrooms. The exemplar we will use is the NOAA-funded Ocean Sciences Sequence (OSS) for Grades 6-8: The ocean-atmosphere connection and climate change, which are curriculum units that deliver rich science content correlated to the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) Disciplinary Core Ideas and an emphasis on the Practices of Science, as called for in NGSS and the Framework. Designed in accordance with the latest research on learning this curriculum provides numerous opportunities for students to use real data to make evidence-based explanations. During the session, we will discuss ways in which students can use scientific data related to climate change as evidence in their construction of scientific arguments.

Climate change impacts on tree ranges: model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty.

PubMed

Cheaib, Alissar; Badeau, Vincent; Boe, Julien; Chuine, Isabelle; Delire, Christine; Dufrêne, Eric; François, Christophe; Gritti, Emmanuel S; Legay, Myriam; Pagé, Christian; Thuiller, Wilfried; Viovy, Nicolas; Leadley, Paul

2012-06-01

Model-based projections of shifts in tree species range due to climate change are becoming an important decision support tool for forest management. However, poorly evaluated sources of uncertainty require more scrutiny before relying heavily on models for decision-making. We evaluated uncertainty arising from differences in model formulations of tree response to climate change based on a rigorous intercomparison of projections of tree distributions in France. We compared eight models ranging from niche-based to process-based models. On average, models project large range contractions of temperate tree species in lowlands due to climate change. There was substantial disagreement between models for temperate broadleaf deciduous tree species, but differences in the capacity of models to account for rising CO(2) impacts explained much of the disagreement. There was good quantitative agreement among models concerning the range contractions for Scots pine. For the dominant Mediterranean tree species, Holm oak, all models foresee substantial range expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE PAGES

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.; ...

2017-07-21

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2016-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

Appropriate technology and climate change adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandala, Erick R.; Patiño-Gomez, Carlos

2016-02-01

Climate change is emerging as the greatest significant environmental problem for the 21st Century and the most important global challenge faced by human kind. Based on evidence recognized by the international scientific community, climate change is already an unquestionable reality, whose first effects are beginning to be measured. Available climate projections and models can assist in anticipating potential far-reaching consequences for development processes. Climatic transformations will impact the environment, biodiversity and water resources, putting several productive processes at risk; and will represent a threat to public health and water availability in quantity and quality.

Reframing climate change assessments around risk: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weaver, C. P.; Moss, Richard H.; Ebi, Kristie L.

Climate change is a risk management challenge for society, with uncertain but potentially severe outcomes affecting natural and human systems, across generations. Managing climate-related risks will be more difficult without a base of knowledge and practice aimed at identifying and evaluating specific risks, and their likelihood and consequences, as well as potential actions to promote resilience in the face of these risks. Here, we suggest three improvements to the process of conducting climate change assessments to better characterize risk and inform risk management actions.

Can the combined use of an ensemble based modelling approach and the analysis of measured meteorological trends lead to increased confidence in climate change impact assessments?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gädeke, Anne; Koch, Hagen; Pohle, Ina; Grünewald, Uwe

2014-05-01

In anthropogenically heavily impacted river catchments, such as the Lusatian river catchments of Spree and Schwarze Elster (Germany), the robust assessment of possible impacts of climate change on the regional water resources is of high relevance for the development and implementation of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. Large uncertainties inherent in future climate projections may, however, reduce the willingness of regional stakeholder to develop and implement suitable adaptation strategies to climate change. This study provides an overview of different possibilities to consider uncertainties in climate change impact assessments by means of (1) an ensemble based modelling approach and (2) the incorporation of measured and simulated meteorological trends. The ensemble based modelling approach consists of the meteorological output of four climate downscaling approaches (DAs) (two dynamical and two statistical DAs (113 realisations in total)), which drive different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (HBV-light and WaSiM-ETH). As study area serve three near natural subcatchments of the Spree and Schwarze Elster river catchments. The objective of incorporating measured meteorological trends into the analysis was twofold: measured trends can (i) serve as a mean to validate the results of the DAs and (ii) be regarded as harbinger for the future direction of change. Moreover, regional stakeholders seem to have more trust in measurements than in modelling results. In order to evaluate the nature of the trends, both gradual (Mann-Kendall test) and step changes (Pettitt test) are considered as well as both temporal and spatial correlations in the data. The results of the ensemble based modelling chain show that depending on the type (dynamical or statistical) of DA used, opposing trends in precipitation, actual evapotranspiration and discharge are simulated in the scenario period (2031-2060). While the statistical DAs simulate a strong decrease in future long term annual precipitation, the dynamical DAs simulate a tendency towards increasing precipitation. The trend analysis suggests that precipitation has not changed significantly during the period 1961-2006. Therefore, the decrease simulated by the statistical DAs should be interpreted as a rather dry future projection. Concerning air temperature, measured and simulated trends agree on a positive trend. Also the uncertainty related to the hydrological model within the climate change modelling chain is comparably low when long-term averages are considered but increases significantly during extreme events. This proposed framework of combining an ensemble based modelling approach with measured trend analysis is a promising approach for regional stakeholders to gain more confidence into the final results of climate change impact assessments. However, climate change impact assessments will remain highly uncertain. Thus, flexible adaptation strategies need to be developed which should not only consider climate but also other aspects of global change.

The contributions of climate and land cover impacts on streamflow in Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Shaochun; Eisner, Stephanie; Astrup, Rasmus; Beldring, Stein

2017-04-01

Located in high latitudes, Norway experienced significant changes in climate in the last 115 years. The average temperature rises at an average rate of 0.09 °C/decade while the annual precipitation increased by ca. 16% from 1900 to 2014 with statistical significance. In the meantime, the standing forest timber volume has increased continuously and almost tripled by the year 2012. Both the changes in climate and land cover would directly affect the streamflow and the hydropower production in Norway, which accounts for about 98% of the total electricity production of the whole country. However, there is a lack of understanding of the contribution of these different drivers to changes in streamflow in Norway, although such knowledge provides important information for future changes in water availability. This paper aims to quantify the relative contribution of climate and land cover impacts on the mean annual and seasonal streamflow (including total, quick and base flow) using the hydrological model HBV for 56 natural catchments in Norway. The changes in forest extend and structure are considered as the major land cover changes in these catchments. The discharge data are split into two periods (1961 - 1988 and 1989 - 2015) as the reference and changing periods. The HBV model was firstly calibrated in the reference period for all catchment separately and the simulated discharge in the changing period was used to calculate the relative contributions. The results show that the climate change played a bigger role than land cover change on annual total, quick and base flows in 62%, 48% and 82% studied basins, respectively. The climate change is the dominant driver on streamflows in winter and spring in most basins, while the land use change affected more significantly on summer flows as well as the base flow in autumn. Finally, the resulted contribution will be compared with the changes in climate and forest characteristics as external validation.

Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate-Chemistry Interactions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isaksen, I.S.A.; Granier, C.; Myhre, G.; Bernsten, T. K.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Gauss, S.; Klimont, Z.; Benestad, R.; Bousquet, P.; Collins, W.;

Mainstreaming of Climate Change into the Ghanaian Tertiary Educational System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyarko, B. K.

2013-12-01

The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognise that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Various Ministries should be challenged to develop and integrate climate change into education policies. In the design of curriculum, there is a need to integrate Climate Change Education into curricula without compromising already overstretched programmes of study. There is a need to encourage and enhance innovative teaching approaches such as Problem-based learning (PBL) is an approach that challenges students to learn through engagement in a real problem. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to practicalize Climate Change education.

Presentation of uncertainties on web platforms for climate change information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocke, Thomas; Wrobel, Markus; Reusser, Dominik

2014-05-01

Climate research has a long tradition, however there is still uncertainty about the specific effects of climate change. One of the key tasks is - beyond discussing climate change and its impacts in specialist groups - to present these to a wider audience. In that respect, decision-makers in the public sector as well as directly affected professional groups require to obtain easy-to-understand information. These groups are not made up of specialist scientists. This gives rise to the challenge that the scientific information must be presented such that it is commonly understood, however, the complexity of the science behind needs to be incorporated. In particular, this requires the explicit representation of spatial and temporal uncertainty information to lay people. Within this talk/poster we survey how climate change and climate impact uncertainty information is presented on various climate service web-based platforms. We outline how the specifics of this medium make it challenging to find adequate and readable representations of uncertainties. First, we introduce a multi-step approach in communicating the uncertainty basing on a typology of uncertainty distinguishing between epistemic, natural stochastic, and human reflexive uncertainty. Then, we compare existing concepts and representations for uncertainty communication with current practices on web-based platforms, including own solutions within our web platforms ClimateImpactsOnline and ci:grasp. Finally, we review surveys on how spatial uncertainty visualization techniques are conceived by untrainded users.

Climate change and One Health.

PubMed

Zinsstag, Jakob; Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

2018-06-01

The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change.

Climate change and One Health

PubMed Central

Crump, Lisa; Schelling, Esther; Hattendorf, Jan; Maidane, Yahya Osman; Ali, Kadra Osman; Muhummed, Abdifatah; Umer, Abdurezak Adem; Aliyi, Ferzua; Nooh, Faisal; Abdikadir, Mohammed Ibrahim; Ali, Seid Mohammed; Hartinger, Stella; Mäusezahl, Daniel; de White, Monica Berger Gonzalez; Cordon-Rosales, Celia; Castillo, Danilo Alvarez; McCracken, John; Abakar, Fayiz; Cercamondi, Colin; Emmenegger, Sandro; Maier, Edith; Karanja, Simon; Bolon, Isabelle; de Castañeda, Rafael Ruiz; Bonfoh, Bassirou; Tschopp, Rea; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Cissé, Guéladio

2018-01-01

Abstract The journal The Lancet recently published a countdown on health and climate change. Attention was focused solely on humans. However, animals, including wildlife, livestock and pets, may also be impacted by climate change. Complementary to the high relevance of awareness rising for protecting humans against climate change, here we present a One Health approach, which aims at the simultaneous protection of humans, animals and the environment from climate change impacts (climate change adaptation). We postulate that integrated approaches save human and animal lives and reduce costs when compared to public and animal health sectors working separately. A One Health approach to climate change adaptation may significantly contribute to food security with emphasis on animal source foods, extensive livestock systems, particularly ruminant livestock, environmental sanitation, and steps towards regional and global integrated syndromic surveillance and response systems. The cost of outbreaks of emerging vector-borne zoonotic pathogens may be much lower if they are detected early in the vector or in livestock rather than later in humans. Therefore, integrated community-based surveillance of zoonoses is a promising avenue to reduce health effects of climate change. PMID:29790983

First AGU Climate Communication Prize awarded

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McEntee, Christine

2012-02-01

Gavin Schmidt, a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and cofounder of the RealClimate blog (http://www.realclimate.org/), received the first AGU Climate Communication Prize at the honors ceremony. The prize recognizes excellence in climate communication as well as the promotion of scientific literacy, clarity of messaging, and efforts to foster respect and understanding for science-based values related to climate change. Sponsored by Nature's Own—a Boulder, Colo.-based company specializing in the sale of minerals, fossils, and decorative stone specimens—the prize comes with a $25,000 cash award. "AGU created this award to raise the visibility of climate change as a critical issue facing the world today, to demonstrate our support for scientists who commit themselves to the effective communication of climate change science, and to encourage more scientists to engage with the public and policy makers on how climate research can contribute to the sustainability of our planet," said AGU president Michael Mc Phaden. "That's why we are so pleased to recognize Gavin for his dedicated leadership and outstanding scientific achievements. We hope that his work will serve as an inspiration for others."

Disentangling the effects of climate variability and functional change on ecosystem carbon dynamics using semi-empirical modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, J.; van der Linden, L.; Lasslop, G.; Carvalhais, N.; Pilegaard, K.; Beier, C.; Ibrom, A.

2012-04-01

The ecosystem carbon balance is affected by both external climatic forcing (e.g. solar radiation, air temperature and humidity) and internal dynamics in the ecosystem functional properties (e.g. canopy structure, leaf photosynthetic capacity and carbohydrate reserve). In order to understand to what extent and at which temporal scale, climatic variability and functional changes regulated the interannual variation (IAV) in the net ecosystem exchange of CO2 (NEE), data-driven analysis and semi-empirical modelling (Lasslop et al. 2010) were performed based on a 13 year NEE record in a temperate deciduous forest (Pilegaard et al 2011, Wu et al. 2012). We found that the sensitivity of carbon fluxes to climatic variability was significantly higher at shorter than at longer time scales and changed seasonally. This implied that the changing distribution of climate anomalies during the vegetation period could have stronger impacts on future ecosystem carbon balances than changes in average climate. At the annual time scale, approximately 80% of the interannual variability in NEE was attributed to the variation in the model parameters, indicating the observed IAV in the carbon dynamics at the investigated site was dominated by changes in ecosystem functioning. In general this study showed the need for understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem functional change. The method can be applied at other sites to explore ecosystem behavior across different plant functional types and climate gradients. Incorporating ecosystem functional change into process based models will reduce the uncertainties in long-term predictions of ecosystem carbon balances in global climate change projections. Acknowledgements. This work was supported by the EU FP7 project CARBO-Extreme, the DTU Climate Centre and the Danish national project ECOCLIM (Danish Council for Strategic Research).

A Model for Collaborative Learning in Undergraduate Climate Change Courses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teranes, J. L.

2008-12-01

Like several colleges and universities across the nation, the University of California, San Diego, has introduced climate change topics into many existing and new undergraduate courses. I have administered a program in this area at UCSD and have also developed and taught a new lower-division UCSD course entitled "Climate Change and Society", a general education course for non-majors. This class covers the basics of climate change, such as the science that explains it, the causes of climate change, climate change impacts, and mitigation strategies. The teaching methods for this course stress interdisciplinary approaches. I find that inquiry-based and collaborative modes of learning are particularly effective when applied to science-based climate, environmental and sustainability topics. Undergraduate education is often dominated by a competitive and individualistic approach to learning. In this approach, individual success is frequently perceived as contingent on others being less successful. Such a model is at odds with commonly stated goals of teaching climate change and sustainability, which are to equip students to contribute to the debate on global environmental change and societal adaptation strategies; and to help students become better informed citizens and decision makers. I present classroom-tested strategies for developing collaborative forms of learning in climate change and environmental courses, including team projects, group presentations and group assessment exercises. I show how critical thinking skills and long-term retention of information can benefit in the collaborative mode of learning. I find that a collaborative learning model is especially appropriate to general education courses in which the enrolled student body represents a wide diversity of majors, class level and expertise. I also connect collaborative coursework in interdisciplinary environmental topics directly to applications in the field, where so much "real-world" achievement in research, education, government and business is effectively accomplished in collaborative teams.

Carbon dynamics of forest in Washington, USA: 21st century projections based on climate-driven changes in fire regimes

Treesearch

Crystal L. Raymond; Donald McKenzie

2012-01-01

During the 21st century, climate-driven changes in fire regimes will be a key agent of change in forests of the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Understanding the response of forest carbon (C) dynamics to increases in fire will help quantify limits on the contribution of forest C storage to climate change mitigation and prioritize forest types for...

A dataset mapping the potential biophysical effects of vegetation cover change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duveiller, Gregory; Hooker, Josh; Cescatti, Alessandro

2018-02-01

Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth has impacts on the biophysical properties of the surface and ultimately on the local climate. Depending on the specific type of vegetation change and on the background climate, the resulting competing biophysical processes can have a net warming or cooling effect, which can further vary both spatially and seasonally. Due to uncertain climate impacts and the lack of robust observations, biophysical effects are not yet considered in land-based climate policies. Here we present a dataset based on satellite remote sensing observations that provides the potential changes i) of the full surface energy balance, ii) at global scale, and iii) for multiple vegetation transitions, as would now be required for the comprehensive evaluation of land based mitigation plans. We anticipate that this dataset will provide valuable information to benchmark Earth system models, to assess future scenarios of land cover change and to develop the monitoring, reporting and verification guidelines required for the implementation of mitigation plans that account for biophysical land processes.

A dataset mapping the potential biophysical effects of vegetation cover change

PubMed Central

Duveiller, Gregory; Hooker, Josh; Cescatti, Alessandro

2018-01-01

Changing the vegetation cover of the Earth has impacts on the biophysical properties of the surface and ultimately on the local climate. Depending on the specific type of vegetation change and on the background climate, the resulting competing biophysical processes can have a net warming or cooling effect, which can further vary both spatially and seasonally. Due to uncertain climate impacts and the lack of robust observations, biophysical effects are not yet considered in land-based climate policies. Here we present a dataset based on satellite remote sensing observations that provides the potential changes i) of the full surface energy balance, ii) at global scale, and iii) for multiple vegetation transitions, as would now be required for the comprehensive evaluation of land based mitigation plans. We anticipate that this dataset will provide valuable information to benchmark Earth system models, to assess future scenarios of land cover change and to develop the monitoring, reporting and verification guidelines required for the implementation of mitigation plans that account for biophysical land processes. PMID:29461538

Federal climate change programs in the water-limited Southwest: intersection of mission, stakeholders and geography to build successful collaboration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Rango, A.; Reyes, J. J.; Langston, M. A.; Johnson, K.

2016-12-01

As one of the newest federal programs to emerge in response to climate change, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were established to assist farmers, ranchers and forest landowners in their adaptation and mitigation efforts under a changing climate. The Hubs' mission is to deliver science-based information and tools to agricultural and natural resource land managers, to enable climate-informed decision-making. By facilitating and transferring tools and knowledge, the Hubs also provide value to cooperative extension, land grant institutions, and USDA itself, especially in leveraging existing resource capacity. Various federal agencies (NOAA, USGS, USFWS) have also developed climate change coordination networks: RISAs, CSCs, and LCCs. These regionally-based federal networks can best operate in collaboration with one another. At their programmatic level, however, there are fundamental discrepancies in mission, stakeholder definition and geographic region. In this presentation, we seek to compare and contrast these divergent characteristics by identifying `hot spots' and `hot moments' where definitions, programs, or priorities may intersect due to place-based or event-based issues. The Southwest (SW) region of the United States, which presently operates under warm and dry conditions, is projected to become warmer and drier in the future. On-going drought conditions have presented an opportunity to maintain and build professional networks among these federal climate change coordination networks, as well as within USDA, to better understand impacts and respond to stakeholder needs. Projects in the Rio Grande River Valley and with Tribal nations highlight successful collaboration based on geography and common stakeholders, respectively. Aridity and water scarcity characterize the SW region and provide an overarching theme to better support adaptation and mitigation, as well as create opportunities for collaborative success.

Climate change threats to family farmers' sense of place and mental wellbeing: A case study from the Western Australian Wheatbelt.

PubMed

Ellis, Neville R; Albrecht, Glenn A

2017-02-01

'Sense of place' has become a central concept in the analysis of the cultural, personal and mental health risks posed by a changing climate. However, such place-related understandings of mental health and wellbeing remain largely limited to Indigenous health contexts. In this article we argue the relevance of sense of place in understanding the mental health impacts of climate change on family farmers who retain close living and working relationships to the land. We conducted a community-based qualitative case study located in the Western Australian Wheatbelt - a region that has experienced some of the most significant climate change in Australia. A three-part interview series was conducted with 22 family farmers between February 2013 and April 2014, and 15 interviews with various agricultural and mental health key informants. The research findings reveal that recently observed patterns of climate change have exacerbated farmers' worries about the weather, undermined notions of self-identity, and contributed to cumulative and chronic forms of place-based distress, culminating in heightened perceived risk of depression and suicide. The research findings highlight the tightly coupled ecosystem health-human health relationships that exist for family farmers living in regions affected by climate change, as well as the significance of farmers' place-based attachments and identities for their mental health and wellbeing. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and freshwater ecosystems: impacts across multiple levels of organization

PubMed Central

Woodward, Guy; Perkins, Daniel M.; Brown, Lee E.

2010-01-01

Fresh waters are particularly vulnerable to climate change because (i) many species within these fragmented habitats have limited abilities to disperse as the environment changes; (ii) water temperature and availability are climate-dependent; and (iii) many systems are already exposed to numerous anthropogenic stressors. Most climate change studies to date have focused on individuals or species populations, rather than the higher levels of organization (i.e. communities, food webs, ecosystems). We propose that an understanding of the connections between these different levels, which are all ultimately based on individuals, can help to develop a more coherent theoretical framework based on metabolic scaling, foraging theory and ecological stoichiometry, to predict the ecological consequences of climate change. For instance, individual basal metabolic rate scales with body size (which also constrains food web structure and dynamics) and temperature (which determines many ecosystem processes and key aspects of foraging behaviour). In addition, increasing atmospheric CO2 is predicted to alter molar CNP ratios of detrital inputs, which could lead to profound shifts in the stoichiometry of elemental fluxes between consumers and resources at the base of the food web. The different components of climate change (e.g. temperature, hydrology and atmospheric composition) not only affect multiple levels of biological organization, but they may also interact with the many other stressors to which fresh waters are exposed, and future research needs to address these potentially important synergies. PMID:20513717

Energy use and climate change improvements of Li/S batteries based on life cycle assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arvidsson, Rickard; Janssen, Matty; Svanström, Magdalena; Johansson, Patrik; Sandén, Björn A.

2018-04-01

We present a life cycle assessment (LCA) study of a lithium/sulfur (Li/S) cell regarding its energy use (in electricity equivalents, kWhel) and climate change (in kg carbon dioxide equivalents, CO2 eq) with the aim of identifying improvement potentials. Possible improvements are illustrated by departing from a base case of Li/S battery design, electricity from coal power, and heat from natural gas. In the base case, energy use is calculated at 580 kWhel kWh-1 and climate change impact at 230 kg CO2 eq kWh-1 of storage capacity. The main contribution to energy use comes from the LiTFSI electrolyte salt production and the main contribution to climate change is electricity use during the cell production stage. By (i) reducing cell production electricity requirement, (ii) sourcing electricity and heat from renewable sources, (iii) improving the specific energy of the Li/S cell, and (iv) switching to carbon black for the cathode, energy use and climate change impact can be reduced by 54 and 93%, respectively. For climate change, our best-case result of 17 kg CO2 eq kWh-1 is of similar magnitude as the best-case literature results for lithium-ion batteries (LIBs). The lithium metal requirement of Li/S batteries and LIBs are also of similar magnitude.

Building the capacity of Extension educators to address climate change and agricultural sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathak, T. B.; Doll, J. E.

2016-12-01

It is evident that changes in climate will adversely impact various sectors including agriculture and natural resources worldwide. Increased temperatures, longer than normal growing seasons, more frequent extreme weather events, decreased winter snowpack, earlier snowmelt, and vulnerability to pest are some of the examples of changes and impacts documented in the literature. According to the IPCC 2007, mainstreaming` climate change issues into decision-making is an important aspect for sustainability. Due to the lack of locally and regionally focused educational programs, it becomes difficult for people to translate the science into meaningful actions. One of the strengths of the Cooperative Extension system is that it is one of the most trusted sources of science-based information that is locally relevant. In order to utilize strong network of Cooperative Extension system, we implemented a project to provide regionally tailored climate change and sustainable agriculture professional development for Cooperative Extension and Natural Resources Conservation Services (NRCS) educators in 12 states in north central US. We conducted these activities: 1) creation and dissemination of a Climate Change and Sustainable Agriculture Resource Handbook and a curriculum and 2) two climate change and sustainable agriculture workshops. In general, this project resulted in improved ability of Cooperative Extension academics to respond to climate change questions with science-based information. Several workshop attendees also integrated information provided to them through resource handbook and curriculum into their existing programming. In the long-term, we hope these programs will result in educators and farmers making informed choices and recommendations that lead to sustainable agriculture in the face of climate change.

The Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)) target diseases in face of climate change.

PubMed

Yang, Guo-Jing; Utzinger, Jürg; Lv, Shan; Qian, Ying-Jun; Li, Shi-Zhu; Wang, Qiang; Bergquist, Robert; Vounatsou, Penelope; Li, Wei; Yang, Kun; Zhou, Xiao-Nong

2010-01-01

Climate change-according to conventional wisdom-will result in an expansion of tropical parasitic diseases in terms of latitude and altitude, with vector-borne diseases particularly prone to change. However, although a significant rise in temperature occurred over the past century, there is little empirical evidence whether climate change has indeed favoured infectious diseases. This might be explained by the complex relationship between climate change and the frequency and the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases, which is characterised by nonlinear associations and countless other complex factors governing the distribution of infectious diseases. Here, we explore whether and how climate change might impact on diseases targeted by the Regional Network for Asian Schistosomiasis and Other Helminth Zoonoses (RNAS(+)). We start our review with a short summary of the current evidence-base how climate change affects the distribution of infectious diseases. Next, we introduce biology-based models for predicting the distribution of infectious diseases in a future, warmer world. Two case studies are presented: the classical RNAS(+) disease schistosomiasis and an emerging disease, angiostrongyliasis, focussing on their occurrences in the People's Republic of China. Strengths and limitations of current models for predicting the impact of climate change on infectious diseases are discussed, and we propose model extensions to include social and ecological factors. Finally, we recommend that mitigation and adaptation strategies to diminish potential negative effects of climate change need to be developed in concert with key stakeholders so that surveillance and early-warning systems can be strengthened and the most vulnerable population groups protected. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Adaptation Training for Natural Resource Professionals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorensen, H. L.; Meyer, N.

2016-02-01

The University of Minnesota Sea Grant Program and University of Minensota Extension are coordinating the development of a cohort-based training for natural resource professionals that prepares them with essential aptitude, resources and tools to lead climate adaptation activities in their organizations and municipalities. This course is geared toward the growing cadre of natural resources, water, municipal infrastructure, and human resources professionals who are called upon to lead climate adaptation initiatives but lack core training in climate change science, vulnerability assessment, and adaptation planning. Modeled on pre-existing UMN certificate programs, the online course encompasses approximately 40 contact hours of training. Content builds from basic climate mechanics to change science, vulnerability assessment, downscaled climate modeling, ecosystem response to climate change and strategies communicating climate change to diverse audiences. Minnesota as well as national case studies and expertise will anchor core climate adaptation concepts in a relevant context.

10 CFR 300.1 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... CLIMATE CHANGE VOLUNTARY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING PROGRAM: GENERAL GUIDELINES § 300.1 General. (a) Purpose... under the Climate Leaders or Climate VISION programs to reduce its entity-wide emissions relative to a... (incorporated by reference, see § 300.13) and base its registered reductions on an assessment of annual changes...

10 CFR 300.1 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... CLIMATE CHANGE VOLUNTARY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING PROGRAM: GENERAL GUIDELINES § 300.1 General. (a) Purpose... under the Climate Leaders or Climate VISION programs to reduce its entity-wide emissions relative to a... (incorporated by reference, see § 300.13) and base its registered reductions on an assessment of annual changes...

10 CFR 300.1 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... CLIMATE CHANGE VOLUNTARY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING PROGRAM: GENERAL GUIDELINES § 300.1 General. (a) Purpose... under the Climate Leaders or Climate VISION programs to reduce its entity-wide emissions relative to a... (incorporated by reference, see § 300.13) and base its registered reductions on an assessment of annual changes...

10 CFR 300.1 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... CLIMATE CHANGE VOLUNTARY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING PROGRAM: GENERAL GUIDELINES § 300.1 General. (a) Purpose... under the Climate Leaders or Climate VISION programs to reduce its entity-wide emissions relative to a... (incorporated by reference, see § 300.13) and base its registered reductions on an assessment of annual changes...

10 CFR 300.1 - General.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... CLIMATE CHANGE VOLUNTARY GREENHOUSE GAS REPORTING PROGRAM: GENERAL GUIDELINES § 300.1 General. (a) Purpose... under the Climate Leaders or Climate VISION programs to reduce its entity-wide emissions relative to a... (incorporated by reference, see § 300.13) and base its registered reductions on an assessment of annual changes...

The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating temperature-induced load but also by lessening water- and temperature-based performance constraints. Policy impacts are nuanced and region-specific, and this analysis underscores the importance of climate mitigation policy to regional electricity system planning decisions.

Development of a database system for near-future climate change projections under the Japanese National Project SI-CAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakagawa, Y.; Kawahara, S.; Araki, F.; Matsuoka, D.; Ishikawa, Y.; Fujita, M.; Sugimoto, S.; Okada, Y.; Kawazoe, S.; Watanabe, S.; Ishii, M.; Mizuta, R.; Murata, A.; Kawase, H.

2017-12-01

Analyses of large ensemble data are quite useful in order to produce probabilistic effect projection of climate change. Ensemble data of "+2K future climate simulations" are currently produced by Japanese national project "Social Implementation Program on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (SI-CAT)" as a part of a database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF; Mizuta et al. 2016) produced by Program for Risk Information on Climate Change. Those data consist of global warming simulations and regional downscaling simulations. Considering that those data volumes are too large (a few petabyte) to download to a local computer of users, a user-friendly system is required to search and download data which satisfy requests of the users. We develop "a database system for near-future climate change projections" for providing functions to find necessary data for the users under SI-CAT. The database system for near-future climate change projections mainly consists of a relational database, a data download function and user interface. The relational database using PostgreSQL is a key function among them. Temporally and spatially compressed data are registered on the relational database. As a first step, we develop the relational database for precipitation, temperature and track data of typhoon according to requests by SI-CAT members. The data download function using Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) provides a function to download temporally and spatially extracted data based on search results obtained by the relational database. We also develop the web-based user interface for using the relational database and the data download function. A prototype of the database system for near-future climate change projections are currently in operational test on our local server. The database system for near-future climate change projections will be released on Data Integration and Analysis System Program (DIAS) in fiscal year 2017. Techniques of the database system for near-future climate change projections might be quite useful for simulation and observational data in other research fields. We report current status of development and some case studies of the database system for near-future climate change projections.

Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

Treesearch

Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe

2012-01-01

We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...

Future fire probability modeling with climate change data and physical chemistry

Treesearch

Richard P. Guyette; Frank R. Thompson; Jodi Whittier; Michael C. Stambaugh; Daniel C. Dey

2014-01-01

Climate has a primary influence on the occurrence and rate of combustion in ecosystems with carbon-based fuels such as forests and grasslands. Society will be confronted with the effects of climate change on fire in future forests. There are, however, few quantitative appraisals of how climate will affect wildland fire in the United States. We demonstrated a method for...

The building of knowledge, language, and decision-making about climate change science: a cross-national program for secondary students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arya, Diana; Maul, Andrew

2016-04-01

The United Nations' declaration on climate change education in December 2014 has sparked a renewal of policies and programs initiated during the 'Decade of Education for Sustainable Development' (DESD, 2005-2014), aimed at promoting awareness, understanding, and civic action for environmental sustainability within learning communities all around the world. We present findings from a dialogic, multimodal, and literacies-based educational project designed to provide secondary students (N = 141) from four countries with the resources to read about and discuss evidence regarding climate change from seminal studies with peers and a core group of scientists (N = 7). Post-program interviews revealed a significant increase in language use related to evidence-based reasoning. Students also demonstrated an increased propensity to recycle. These findings support the hypothesis that providing opportunities for students to read and discuss seminal scientific sources incites positive changes in beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors related to climate change and climate science, and understandings of the nature of scientific evidence and argumentation.

Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

2014-05-01

Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A climate change assessment is performed for climate change scenarios based on the SRES emission scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for a set of statistically downscaled meteorological data. The future performance of the multi-purpose multi-reservoir system is quantified and possible intensifications of trade-offs between management goals or reservoir utilizations are shown.

Climate change and outdoor recreation participation in the Southern United States

Treesearch

J.M. Bowker; Ashley E. Askew; Neelam Poudyal; Stanley J. Zarnoch; Lynne Seymour; H. Ken Cordell

2014-01-01

In this chapter we begin to assess the potential effects of climate change on future outdoor recreation in the South, a region spanning 13 states from Virginia to Texas (Chapter 1). Our goal is to provide some useful insights about future natural resource-based recreation-an important nontimber product derived from southern forests-in the face of climate change. We...

Template for assessing climate change impacts and management options: TACCIMO user guide version 2.2

Treesearch

Emrys Treasure; Steven McNulty; Jennifer Moore Myers; Lisa Nicole Jennings

2014-01-01

The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) is a Web-based tool developed by the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture to assist Federal, State, and private land managers and planners with evaluation of climate change science implications for sustainable natural resource management. TACCIMO is a dynamic information...

Assessing the effect of climate change on carbon sequestration in a Mexican dry forest in the Yucatan Peninsula

Treesearch

Z. Dai; K.D. Johnson; R.A. Birdsey; J.L. Hernandez-Stefanoni; J.M. Dupuy

2015-01-01

Assessing the effect of climate change on carbon sequestration in tropical forest ecosystems is important to inform monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) for reducing deforestation and forest degradation (REDD), and to effectively assess forest management options under climate change. Two process-based models, Forest-DNDC and Biome-BGC, with different spatial...

Climate-induced changes in vulnerability to biological threats in the southern United States

Treesearch

Rabiu Olatinwo; Qinfeng Guo; Songlin Fei; William Otrosina; Kier Klepzig; Douglas Streett

2014-01-01

Forest land managers face the challenges of preparing their forests for the impacts of climate change. However, climate change adds a new dimension to the task of developing and testing science-based management options to deal with the effects of stressors on forest ecosystems in the southern United States. The large spatial scale and complex interactions make...

Ecosystem-based management of coastal zones in face of climate change impacts: Challenges and inequalities.

PubMed

Fernandino, Gerson; Elliff, Carla I; Silva, Iracema R

2018-06-01

Climate change effects have the potential of affecting both ocean and atmospheric processes. These changes pose serious threats to the millions of people that live by the coast. Thus, the objective of the present review is to discuss how climate change is altering (and will continue to alter) atmospheric and oceanic processes, what are the main implications of these alterations along the coastline, and which are the ecosystem-based management (EBM) strategies that have been proposed and applied to address these issues. While ocean warming, ocean acidification and increasing sea level have been more extensively studied, investigations on the effects of climate change to wind and wave climates are less frequent. Coastal ecosystems and their respective natural resources will respond differently according to location, environmental drivers and coastal processes. EBM strategies have mostly concentrated on improving ecosystem services, which can be used to assist in mitigating climate change effects. The main challenge for developing nations regards gaps in information and scarcity of resources. Thus, for effective management and adaptive EBM strategies to be developed worldwide, information at a local level is greatly needed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Lake eutrophication modeling in considering climatic factors change: a review].

PubMed

Su, Jie-Qiong; Wang, Xuan; Yang, Zhi-Feng

2012-11-01

Climatic factors are considered as the key factors affecting the trophic status and its process in most lakes. Under the background of global climate change, to incorporate the variations of climatic factors into lake eutrophication models could provide solid technical support for the analysis of the trophic evolution trend of lake and the decision-making of lake environment management. This paper analyzed the effects of climatic factors such as air temperature, precipitation, sunlight, and atmosphere on lake eutrophication, and summarized the research results about the lake eutrophication modeling in considering in considering climatic factors change, including the modeling based on statistical analysis, ecological dynamic analysis, system analysis, and intelligent algorithm. The prospective approaches to improve the accuracy of lake eutrophication modeling with the consideration of climatic factors change were put forward, including 1) to strengthen the analysis of the mechanisms related to the effects of climatic factors change on lake trophic status, 2) to identify the appropriate simulation models to generate several scenarios under proper temporal and spatial scales and resolutions, and 3) to integrate the climatic factors change simulation, hydrodynamic model, ecological simulation, and intelligent algorithm into a general modeling system to achieve an accurate prediction of lake eutrophication under climatic change.

Climate change: evidence of human causes and arguments for emissions reduction.

PubMed

Baum, Seth D; Haqq-Misra, Jacob D; Karmosky, Chris

2012-06-01

In a recent editorial, Raymond Spier expresses skepticism over claims that climate change is driven by human actions and that humanity should act to avoid climate change. This paper responds to this skepticism as part of a broader review of the science and ethics of climate change. While much remains uncertain about the climate, research indicates that observed temperature increases are human-driven. Although opinions vary regarding what should be done, prominent arguments against action are based on dubious factual and ethical positions. Thus, the skepticisms in the recent editorial are unwarranted. This does not diminish the general merits of skeptical intellectual inquiry.

A Review on Climate Change in Weather Stations of Guilan Province Using Mann-Kendal Methodand GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Behzadi, Jalal

2016-07-01

Climate has always been changing during the life time of the earth, and has appeared in the form of ice age, hurricanes, severe and sudden temperature changes, precipitation and other climatic elements, and has dramatically influenced the environment, and in some cases has caused severe changes and even destructions. Some of the most important aspects of climate changes can be found in precipitation types of different regions in the world and especially Guilan, which is influenced by drastic land conversions and greenhouse gases. Also, agriculture division, industrial activities and unnecessary land conversions are thought to have a huge influence on climate change. Climate change is a result of abnormalcies of metorologyl parameters. Generally, the element of precipitation is somehow included in most theories about climate change. The present study aims to reveal precipitation abnormalcies in Guilan which lead to climate change, and possible deviations of precipitation parameter based on annual, seasonal and monthly series have been evaluated. The Mann-Kendal test has been used to reveal likely deviations leading to climate change. The trend of precipitation changes in long-term has been identifiedusing this method. Also, the beginning and end of these changes have been studied in five stations as representatives of all the thirteen weather stations. Then,the areas which have experienced climate change have been identified using the GIS software along with the severity of the changes with an emphasis on drought. These results can be used in planning and identifying the effects of these changes on the environment. Keywords: Climate Change, Guilan, Mann-Kendal, GIS

Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture - an initiative of the University of West Hungary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matyas, Cs.; Berki, I.; Drüszler, A.; Eredics, A.; Galos, B.; Moricz, N.; Rasztovits, E.

2012-04-01

In whole Central Europe agricultural production is highly vulnerable and sensitive to impacts of projected climatic changes. The low-elevation regions of the Carpathian Basin (most of the territory of Hungary), where precipitation is the minimum factor of production, are especially exposed to climatic extremes, especially to droughts. Rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry on nature-close pastures and nature-close forestry are the most sensitive sectors due to limited possibilities to counterbalance moisture supply constraints. These sectors have to be best prepared to frequency increase of extreme events, disasters and economic losses. So far, there is a lack of information about the middle and long term consequences on regional and local level. Therefore the importance of complex, long term management planning and of land use optimation is increasing. The aim of the initiative is to set up a fine-scale, GIS-based, complex, integrated system for the definition of the most important regional and local challenges and tasks of climate change adaptation and mitigation in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and also nature protection. The Service Center for Climate Change Adaptation in Agriculture is planned to provide the following services: § Complex, GIS-supported database, which integrates the basic information about present and projected climates, extremes, hydrology and soil conditions; § Evaluation of existing satellite-based and earth-based monitoring systems; § GIS-supported information about the future trends of climate change impacts on the agroecological potential and sensitivity status on regional and local level (e.g. land cover/use and expectable changes, production, water and carbon cycle, biodiversity and other ecosystem services, potential pests and diseases, tolerance limits etc.) in fine-scale horizontal resolution, based first of all on natural produce, including also social and economic consequences; § Complex decision supporting system on regional and local scale for middle- and long term adaptation and mitigation strategies, providing information on optimum technologies and energy balances. Cooperation with already existing Climate Service Centres and national and international collaboration in monitoring and research are important elements of the activity of the Centre. In the future, the Centre is planned to form part of a national information system on climate change adaptation and mitigation, supported by the Ministry of Development. Keywords: climate change impacts, forestry, rainfed agriculture, animal husbandry

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among-population demographic responses to climatic variation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amburgey, Staci M.; Miller, David A. W.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Rittenhouse, Tracy A. G.; Benard, Michael F.; Richardson, Jonathan L.; Urban, Mark C.; Hughson, Ward; Brand, Adrianne B,; Davis, Christopher J.; Hardin, Carmen R.; Paton, Peter W. C.; Raithel, Christopher J.; Relyea, Rick A.; Scott, A. Floyd; Skelly, David K.; Skidds, Dennis E.; Smith, Charles K.; Werner, Earl E.

2018-01-01

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long-term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long-term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species-interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.

The World Climate Exercise: Is (Simulated) Experience Our Best Teacher?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rath, K.; Rooney-varga, J. N.; Jones, A.; Johnston, E.; Sterman, J.

2015-12-01

Meeting the challenge of climate change will clearly require 'deep learning' - learning that motivates a search for underlying meaning, a willingness to exert the sustained effort needed to understand complex problems, and innovative problem-solving. This type of learning is dependent on the level of the learner's engagement with the material, their intrinsic motivation to learn, intention to understand, and relevance of the material to the learner. Here, we present evidence for deep learning about climate change through a simulation-based role-playing exercise, World Climate. The exercise puts participants into the roles of delegates to the United Nations climate negotiations and asks them to create an international climate deal. They find out the implications of their decisions, according to the best available science, through the same decision-support computer simulation used to provide feedback for the real-world negotiations, C-ROADS. World Climate provides an opportunity for participants have an immersive, social experience in which they learn first-hand about both the social dynamics of climate change decision-making, through role-play, and the dynamics of the climate system, through an interactive computer simulation. Evaluation results so far have shown that the exercise is highly engaging and memorable and that it motivates large majorities of participants (>70%) to take action on climate change. In addition, we have found that it leads to substantial gains in understanding key systems thinking concepts (e.g., the stock-flow behavior of atmospheric CO2), as well as improvements in understanding of climate change causes and impacts. While research is still needed to better understand the impacts of simulation-based role-playing exercises like World Climate on behavior change, long-term understanding, transfer of systems thinking skills across topics, and the importance of social learning during the exercise, our results to date indicate that it is a powerful, active learning tool that has strong potential to foster deep learning about climate change.

Climate Literacy in the Classroom: Supporting Teachers in the Transition to NGSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, M. J. B.; Merrill, J.; Harcourt, P.; Petrone, C.; Shea, N.; Mead, H.

2014-12-01

Meeting the challenge of climate change will clearly require 'deep learning' - learning that motivates a search for underlying meaning, a willingness to exert the sustained effort needed to understand complex problems, and innovative problem-solving. This type of learning is dependent on the level of the learner's engagement with the material, their intrinsic motivation to learn, intention to understand, and relevance of the material to the learner. Here, we present evidence for deep learning about climate change through a simulation-based role-playing exercise, World Climate. The exercise puts participants into the roles of delegates to the United Nations climate negotiations and asks them to create an international climate deal. They find out the implications of their decisions, according to the best available science, through the same decision-support computer simulation used to provide feedback for the real-world negotiations, C-ROADS. World Climate provides an opportunity for participants have an immersive, social experience in which they learn first-hand about both the social dynamics of climate change decision-making, through role-play, and the dynamics of the climate system, through an interactive computer simulation. Evaluation results so far have shown that the exercise is highly engaging and memorable and that it motivates large majorities of participants (>70%) to take action on climate change. In addition, we have found that it leads to substantial gains in understanding key systems thinking concepts (e.g., the stock-flow behavior of atmospheric CO2), as well as improvements in understanding of climate change causes and impacts. While research is still needed to better understand the impacts of simulation-based role-playing exercises like World Climate on behavior change, long-term understanding, transfer of systems thinking skills across topics, and the importance of social learning during the exercise, our results to date indicate that it is a powerful, active learning tool that has strong potential to foster deep learning about climate change.

Hand in hand: public endorsement of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual's endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that "localising" climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.

Community-Based Adaptation To A Changing Climate

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This resource discusses how climate change is affecting community services, presents sample adaptation strategies, gives examples of successful community adaptation actions, and provides links to other key federal resources.

Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

2017-10-01

Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

Scenario-based stakeholder engagement: incorporating stakeholders preferences into coastal planning for climate change.

PubMed

Tompkins, Emma L; Few, Roger; Brown, Katrina

2008-09-01

Climate change poses many challenges for ecosystem and resource management. In particular, coastal planners are struggling to find ways to prepare for the potential impacts of future climate change while dealing with immediate pressures. Decisions on how to respond to future risks are complicated by the long time horizons and the uncertainty associated with the distribution of impacts. Existing coastal zone management approaches in the UK either do not adequately incorporate changing stakeholder preferences, or effectively ensure that stakeholders are aware of the trade-offs inherent in any coastal management decision. Using a novel method, scenario-based stakeholder engagement, which brings together stakeholder analysis, climate change management scenarios and deliberative techniques, the necessary trade-offs associated with long term coastal planning are explored. The method is applied to two case studies of coastal planning in Christchurch Bay on the south coast of England and the Orkney Islands off the north coast of Scotland. A range of conflicting preferences exist on the ideal governance structure to manage the coast under different climate change scenarios. In addition, the results show that public understanding of the trade-offs that have to be made is critical in gaining some degree of public support for long term coastal decision-making. We conclude that scenario-based stakeholder engagement is a useful tool to facilitate coastal management planning that takes into account the complexities and challenges of climate change, and could be used in conjunction with existing approaches such as the Shoreline Management Planning process.

Life history trade-off moderates model predictions of diversity loss from climate change

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Climate change can trigger species range shifts, local extinctions and changes in diversity. Species interactions and dispersal capacity are important mediators of community responses to climate change. The interaction between multispecies competition and variation in dispersal capacity has recently been shown to exacerbate the effects of climate change on diversity and to increase predictions of extinction risk dramatically. Dispersal capacity, however, is part of a species’ overall ecological strategy and are likely to trade off with other aspects of its life history that influence population growth and persistence. In plants, a well-known example is the trade-off between seed mass and seed number. The presence of such a trade-off might buffer the diversity loss predicted by models with random but neutral (i.e. not impacting fitness otherwise) differences in dispersal capacity. Using a trait-based metacommunity model along a warming climatic gradient the effect of three different dispersal scenarios on model predictions of diversity change were compared. Adding random variation in species dispersal capacity caused extinctions by the introduction of strong fitness differences due an inherent property of the dispersal kernel. Simulations including a fitness-equalising trade-off based on empirical relationships between seed mass (here affecting dispersal distance, establishment probability, and seedling biomass) and seed number (fecundity) maintained higher initial species diversity and predicted lower extinction risk and diversity loss during climate change than simulations with variable dispersal capacity. Large seeded species persisted during climate change, but developed lags behind their climate niche that may cause extinction debts. Small seeded species were more extinction-prone during climate change but tracked their niches through dispersal and colonisation, despite competitive resistance from residents. Life history trade-offs involved in coexistence mechanisms may increase community resilience to future climate change and are useful guides for model development. PMID:28520770

How will climate change affect watershed mercury export in a representative Coastal Plain watershed?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Golden, H. E.; Knightes, C. D.; Conrads, P. A.; Feaster, T.; Davis, G. M.; Benedict, S. T.; Bradley, P. M.

2012-12-01

Future climate change is expected to drive variations in watershed hydrological processes and water quality across a wide range of physiographic provinces, ecosystems, and spatial scales. How such shifts in climatic conditions will impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and hydrologically-driven Hg transport is a significant concern. We simulate the responses of watershed hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to a unified set of past and future climate change projections in a Coastal Plain basin using multiple watershed models. We use two statistically downscaled global precipitation and temperature models, ECHO, a hybrid of the ECHAM4 and HOPE-G models, and the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) across two thirty-year simulations (1980 to 2010 and 2040 to 2070). We apply three watershed models to quantify and bracket potential changes in hydrologic and HgT fluxes, including the Visualizing Ecosystems for Land Management Assessment Model for Hg (VELMA-Hg), the Grid Based Mercury Model (GBMM), and TOPLOAD, a water quality constituent model linked to TOPMODEL hydrological simulations. We estimate a decrease in average annual HgT fluxes in response to climate change using the ECHO projections and an increase with the CCSM3 projections in the study watershed. Average monthly HgT fluxes increase using both climate change projections between in the late spring (March through May), when HgT concentrations and flow are high. Results suggest that hydrological transport associated with changes in precipitation and temperature is the primary mechanism driving HgT flux response to climate change. Our multiple model/multiple projection approach allows us to bracket the relative response of HgT fluxes to climate change, thereby illustrating the uncertainty associated with the projections. In addition, our approach allows us to examine potential variations in climate change-driven water and HgT export based on different conceptualizations of watershed HgT dynamics and the representative mathematical structures underpinning existing watershed Hg models.

Berry composition and climate: responses and empirical models.

PubMed

Barnuud, Nyamdorj N; Zerihun, Ayalsew; Gibberd, Mark; Bates, Bryson

2014-08-01

Climate is a strong modulator of berry composition. Accordingly, the projected change in climate is expected to impact on the composition of berries and of the resultant wines. However, the direction and extent of climate change impact on fruit composition of winegrape cultivars are not fully known. This study utilised a climate gradient along a 700 km transect, covering all wine regions of Western Australia, to explore and empirically describe influences of climate on anthocyanins, pH and titratable acidity (TA) levels in two or three cultivars of Vitis vinifera (Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay and Shiraz). The results showed that, at a common maturity of 22° Brix total soluble solids, berries from the warmer regions had low levels of anthocyanins and TA as well as high pH compared to berries from the cooler regions. Most of these regional variations in berry composition reflected the prevailing climatic conditions of the regions. Thus, depending on cultivar, 82-87 % of TA, 83 % of anthocyanins and about half of the pH variations across the gradient were explained by climate-variable-based empirical models. Some of the variables that were relevant in describing the variations in berry attributes included: diurnal ranges and ripening period temperature (TA), vapour pressure deficit in October and growing degree days (pH), and ripening period temperatures (anthocyanins). Further, the rates of change in these berry attributes in response to climate variables were cultivar dependent. Based on the observed patterns along the climate gradient, it is concluded that: (1) in a warming climate, all other things being equal, berry anthocyanins and TA levels will decline whereas pH levels will rise; and (2) despite variations in non-climatic factors (e.g. soil type and management) along the sampling transect, variations in TA and anthocyanins were satisfactorily described using climate-variable-based empirical models, indicating the overriding impact of climate on berry composition. The models presented here are useful tools for assessing likely changes in berry TA and anthocyanins in response to changing climate for the wine regions and cultivars covered in this study.

Berry composition and climate: responses and empirical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnuud, Nyamdorj N.; Zerihun, Ayalsew; Gibberd, Mark; Bates, Bryson

2014-08-01

Climate is a strong modulator of berry composition. Accordingly, the projected change in climate is expected to impact on the composition of berries and of the resultant wines. However, the direction and extent of climate change impact on fruit composition of winegrape cultivars are not fully known. This study utilised a climate gradient along a 700 km transect, covering all wine regions of Western Australia, to explore and empirically describe influences of climate on anthocyanins, pH and titratable acidity (TA) levels in two or three cultivars of Vitis vinifera (Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay and Shiraz). The results showed that, at a common maturity of 22° Brix total soluble solids, berries from the warmer regions had low levels of anthocyanins and TA as well as high pH compared to berries from the cooler regions. Most of these regional variations in berry composition reflected the prevailing climatic conditions of the regions. Thus, depending on cultivar, 82-87 % of TA, 83 % of anthocyanins and about half of the pH variations across the gradient were explained by climate-variable-based empirical models. Some of the variables that were relevant in describing the variations in berry attributes included: diurnal ranges and ripening period temperature (TA), vapour pressure deficit in October and growing degree days (pH), and ripening period temperatures (anthocyanins). Further, the rates of change in these berry attributes in response to climate variables were cultivar dependent. Based on the observed patterns along the climate gradient, it is concluded that: (1) in a warming climate, all other things being equal, berry anthocyanins and TA levels will decline whereas pH levels will rise; and (2) despite variations in non-climatic factors (e.g. soil type and management) along the sampling transect, variations in TA and anthocyanins were satisfactorily described using climate-variable-based empirical models, indicating the overriding impact of climate on berry composition. The models presented here are useful tools for assessing likely changes in berry TA and anthocyanins in response to changing climate for the wine regions and cultivars covered in this study.

Climate Projection Data base for Roads - CliPDaR: Design a guideline for a transnational database of downscaled climate projection data for road impact models - within the Conference's of European Directors of Roads (CEDR) TRANSNATIONAL ROAD RESEARCH PROG

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matulla, Christoph; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Türk, Konrad

2013-04-01

The European road sector is vulnerable to extreme weather phenomena, which can cause large socio-economic losses. Almost every year there occur several weather triggered events (like heavy precipitation, floods, landslides, high winds, snow and ice, heat or cold waves, etc.), that disrupt transportation, knock out power lines, cut off populated regions from the outside and so on. So, in order to avoid imbalances in the supply of vital goods to people as well as to prevent negative impacts on health and life of people travelling by car it is essential to know present and future threats to roads. Climate change might increase future threats to roads. CliPDaR focuses on parts of the European road network and contributes, based on the current body of knowledge, to the establishment of guidelines helping to decide which methods and scenarios to apply for the estimation of future climate change based challenges in the field of road maintenance. Based on regional scale climate change projections specific road-impact models are applied in order to support protection measures. In recent years, it has been recognised that it is essential to assess the uncertainty and reliability of given climate projections by using ensemble approaches and downscaling methods. A huge amount of scientific work has been done to evaluate these approaches with regard to reliability and usefulness for investigations on possible impacts of climate changes. CliPDaR is going to collect the existing approaches and methodologies in European countries, discuss their differences and - in close cooperation with the road owners - develops a common line on future applications of climate projection data to road impact models. As such, the project will focus on reviewing and assessing existing regional climate change projections regarding transnational highway transport needs. The final project report will include recommendations how the findings of CliPDaR may support the decision processes of European national road administrations regarding possible future climate change impacts. First project results are presented at the conference.

Economic growth, climate change, biodiversity loss: distributive justice for the global north and south.

PubMed

Rosales, Jon

2008-12-01

Economic growth-the increase in production and consumption of goods and services-must be considered within its biophysical context. Economic growth is fueled by biophysical inputs and its outputs degrade ecological processes, such as the global climate system. Economic growth is currently the principal cause of increased climate change, and climate change is a primary mechanism of biodiversity loss. Therefore, economic growth is a prime catalyst of biodiversity loss. Because people desire economic growth for dissimilar reasons-some for the increased accumulation of wealth, others for basic needs-how we limit economic growth becomes an ethical problem. Principles of distributive justice can help construct an international climate-change regime based on principles of equity. An equity-based framework that caps economic growth in the most polluting economies will lessen human impact on biodiversity. When coupled with a cap-and-trade mechanism, the framework can also provide a powerful tool for redistribution of wealth. Such an equity-based framework promises to be more inclusive and therefore more effective because it accounts for the disparate developmental conditions of the global north and south.

An Integrated Hydro-Economic Model for Economy-Wide Climate Change Impact Assessment for Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Thurlow, J.; Diao, X.

2008-12-01

Zambia is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, with a total population of about 11 million and a total area of about 752 thousand square kilometers. Agriculture in the country depends heavily on rainfall as the majority of cultivated land is rain-fed. Significant rainfall variability has been a huge challenge for the country to keep a sustainable agricultural growth, which is an important condition for the country to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. The situation is expected to become even more complex as climate change would impose additional impacts on rainwater availability and crop water requirements, among other changes. To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production and national economy, a soil hydrology model and a crop water production model are developed to simulate actual crop water uses and yield losses under water stress which provide annual shocks for a recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model developed for Zambia. Observed meteorological data of the past three decades are used in the integrated hydro-economic model for climate variability impact analysis, and as baseline climatology for climate change impact assessment together with several GCM-based climate change scenarios that cover a broad range of climate projections. We found that climate variability can explain a significant portion of the annual variations of agricultural production and GDP of Zambia in the past. Hidden beneath climate variability, climate change is found to have modest impacts on agriculture and national economy of Zambia around 2025 but the impacts would be pronounced in the far future if appropriate adaptations are not implemented. Policy recommendations are provided based on scenario analysis.

Predicting patterns of vulnerability to climate change in near coastal species using an algorithm-based risk assessment framework

EPA Science Inventory

Near-coastal (0-200 depth) ecosystems and species are under threat from increasing temperatures, ocean acidification, and sea level rise. However, species vary in their vulnerability to specific climatic changes and climate impacts will vary geographically. For management to resp...

Applying a simple water-energy balance framework to predict the climate sensitivity of streamflow over the continental United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renner, M.; Bernhofer, C.

2011-12-01

The prediction of climate effects on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources is one of the major research questions in hydrology. Conceptual water-energy balance models can be used to gain a first order estimate of how long-term average streamflow is changing with a change in water and energy supply. A common framework for investigation of this question is based on the Budyko hypothesis, which links hydrological response to aridity. Recently, Renner et al. (2011) introduced the CCUW hypothesis, which is based on the assumption that the total efficiency of the catchment ecosystem to use the available water and energy for actual evapotranspiration remains constant even under climate changes. Here, we confront the climate sensitivity approaches (including several versions of Budyko's approach and the CCUW) with data of more than 400 basins distributed over the continental United States. We first map an estimate of the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in precipitation using long-term average data of the period 1949-2003. This provides a hydro-climatic status of the respective basins as well as their expected proportional effect on changes in climate. Next, by splitting the data in two periods, we (i) analyse the long-term average changes in hydro-climatolgy, we (ii) use the different climate sensitivity methods to predict the change in streamflow given the observed changes in water and energy supply and (iii) we apply a quantitative approach to separate the impacts of changes in the long-term average climate from basin characteristics change on streamflow. This allows us to evaluate the observed changes in streamflow as well as to evaluate the impact of basin changes on the validity of climate sensitivity approaches. The apparent increase of streamflow in the majority of basins in the US is dominated by a climate trend towards increased humidity. It is further evident that impacts of changes in basin characteristics appear in parallel with climate changes. There are coherent spatial patterns with basins of increasing catchment efficiency being dominant in the western and central parts of the US. A hot spot of decreasing efficiency is found within the US Midwest. The impact of basin changes on the prediction is large and can be twice as the observed change signal. However, we find that both, the CCUW hypothesis and the approaches using the Budyko hypothesis, show minimal deviations between observed and predicted changes in streamflow for basins where a dominance of climatic changes and low influences of basin changes have been found. Thus, climate sensitivity methods can be regarded as valid tools if we expect climate changes only and neglect any direct anthropogenic influences.

Exploring adaptations to climate change with stakeholders: A participatory method to design grassland-based farming systems.

PubMed

Sautier, Marion; Piquet, Mathilde; Duru, Michel; Martin-Clouaire, Roger

2017-05-15

Research is expected to produce knowledge, methods and tools to enhance stakeholders' adaptive capacity by helping them to anticipate and cope with the effects of climate change at their own level. Farmers face substantial challenges from climate change, from changes in the average temperatures and the precipitation regime to an increased variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Such changes can have dramatic consequences for many types of agricultural production systems such as grassland-based livestock systems for which climate change influences the seasonality and productivity of fodder production. We present a participatory design method called FARMORE (FARM-Oriented REdesign) that allows farmers to design and evaluate adaptations of livestock systems to future climatic conditions. It explicitly considers three climate features in the design and evaluation processes: climate change, climate variability and the limited predictability of weather. FARMORE consists of a sequence of three workshops for which a pre-existing game-like platform was adapted. Various year-round forage production and animal feeding requirements must be assembled by participants with a computerized support system. In workshop 1, farmers aim to produce a configuration that satisfies an average future weather scenario. They refine or revise the previous configuration by considering a sample of the between-year variability of weather in workshop 2. In workshop 3, they explicitly take the limited predictability of weather into account. We present the practical aspects of the method based on four case studies involving twelve farmers from Aveyron (France), and illustrate it through an in-depth description of one of these case studies with three dairy farmers. The case studies shows and discusses how workshop sequencing (1) supports a design process that progressively accommodates complexity of real management contexts by enlarging considerations of climate change to climate variability and low weather predictability, and (2) increases the credibility and salience of the design method. Further enhancements of the method are outlined, especially the selection of pertinent weather scenarios. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A vulnerability tool for adapting water and aquatic resources to climate change and extremes on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, J.; Joyce, L. A.; Armel, B.; Bevenger, G.; Zubic, R.

2011-12-01

Climate change introduces a significant challenge for land managers and decision makers managing the natural resources that provide many benefits from forests. These benefits include water for urban and agricultural uses, wildlife habitat, erosion and climate control, aquifer recharge, stream flows regulation, water temperature regulation, and cultural services such as outdoor recreation and aesthetic enjoyment. The Forest Service has responded to this challenge by developing a national strategy for responding to climate change (the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change, July 2010). In concert with this national strategy, the Forest Service's Westwide Climate Initiative has conducted 4 case studies on individual Forests in the western U.S to develop climate adaptation tools. Western National Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they have high-mountain topography, diversity in climate and vegetation, large areas of water limited ecosystems, and increasing urbanization. Information about the vulnerability and capacity of resources to adapt to climate change and extremes is lacking. There is an urgent need to provide customized tools and synthesized local scale information about the impacts to resources from future climate change and extremes, as well as develop science based adaptation options and strategies in National Forest management and planning. The case study on the Shoshone National Forest has aligned its objectives with management needs by developing a climate extreme vulnerability tool that guides adaptation options development. The vulnerability tool determines the likely degree to which native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and water availability are susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change extremes. We spatially categorize vulnerability for water and native trout resources using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators that use minimum and maximum climate and GIS data. Results show that the vulnerability of water availability may increase in areas that have less storage and become more dominated by rain instead of snow. Native trout habitat was found to improve in some areas from warmer temperatures suggesting future refugia habitat may need to be a focus of conservation efforts. The climate extreme vulnerability tool provides Forest Service resource managers science based information that guides adaptation strategy development; prioritize conservation projects; guides monitoring efforts, and helps promote more resilient ecosystems undergoing the effects of climate change.

Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework.

PubMed

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

2018-03-16

Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

PubMed Central

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

2018-01-01

Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies. PMID:29547592

Mapping of interconnection of climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yokohata, Tokuta; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Nishina, Kazuya; Takanashi, Kiyoshi; Emori, Seita; Kiguchi, Masashi; Iseri, Yoshihiko; Honda, Yasushi; Okada, Masashi; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Yamamoto, Akitomo; Shigemitsu, Masahito; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Iwase, Kenta; Hanasaki, Naota; Ito, Akihiko; Sakurai, Gen; Iizumi, Toshichika; Oki, Taikan

2015-04-01

Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by changing the food price or food supply. Changes in river runoff can also make an impact on the hydropower efficiency. Comprehensive pictures of climate risks and their interconnections are clearly shown in a straightforward manner by the network diagram. We will have a discussion how our results can be helpful for our society to recognize the climate risk.

Diverse Responses of Global Vegetation to Climate Changes: Spatial Patterns and Time-lag Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, D.; Zhao, X.; Zhou, T.; Huang, K.; Xu, W.

2014-12-01

Global climate changes have enormous influences on vegetation growth, meanwhile, response of vegetation to climate express space diversity and time-lag effects, which account for spatial-temporal disparities of climate change and spatial heterogeneity of ecosystem. Revelation of this phenomenon will help us further understanding the impact of climate change on vegetation. Assessment and forecast of global environmental change can be also improved under further climate change. Here we present space diversity and time-lag effects patterns of global vegetation respond to three climate factors (temperature, precipitation and solar radiation) based on quantitative analysis of satellite data (NDVI) and Climate data (Climate Research Unit). We assessed the time-lag effects of global vegetation to main climate factors based on the great correlation fitness between NDVI and the three climate factors respectively among 0-12 months' temporal lags. On this basis, integrated response model of NDVI and the three climate factors was built to analyze contribution of different climate factors to vegetation growth with multiple regression model and partial correlation model. In the result, different vegetation types have distinct temporal lags to the three climate factors. For the precipitation, temporal lags of grasslands are the shortest while the evergreen broad-leaf forests are the longest, which means that grasslands are more sensitive to precipitation than evergreen broad-leaf forests. Analysis of different climate factors' contribution to vegetation reveal that vegetation are dominated by temperature in the high northern latitudes; they are mainly restricted by precipitation in arid and semi-arid areas (Australia, Western America); in humid areas of low and intermediate latitudes (Amazon, Eastern America), vegetation are mainly influenced by solar radiation. Our results reveal the time-lag effects and major driving factors of global vegetation growth and explain the spatiotemporal variations of global vegetation in last 30 years. Significantly, it is as well as in forecasting and assessing the influences of future climate change on the vegetation dynamics. This work was supported by the High Technology Research and Development Program of China (Grant NO.2013AA122801).

Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change on Inuit Health

PubMed Central

Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

2014-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks—one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context. PMID:24754615

Adapting to the effects of climate change on Inuit health.

PubMed

Ford, James D; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

2014-06-01

Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks-one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context.

Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2013-12-01

Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

The Impact of Urban Growth and Climate Change on Heat Stress in an Australian City

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, S.; Mcalpine, C. A.; Thatcher, M. J.; Salazar, A.; Watson, J. R.

2017-12-01

Over half of the world's population lives in urban areas. Most people will therefore be exposed to climate change in an urban environment. One of the climate risks facing urban residents is heat stress, which can lead to illness and death. Urban residents are at increased risk of heat stress due to the urban heat island effect. The urban heat island is a modification of the urban environment and increases temperatures on average by 2°C, though the increase can be much higher, up to 8°C when wind speeds and cloud cover are low. The urban heat island is also expected to increase in the future due to urban growth and intensification, further exacerbating urban heat stress. Climate change alters the urban heat island due to changes in weather (wind speed and cloudiness) and evapotranspiration. Future urban heat stress will therefore be affected by urban growth and climate change. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of urban growth and climate change on the urban heat island and heat stress in Brisbane, Australia. We used CCAM, the conformal cubic atmospheric model developed by the CSIRO, to examine temperatures in Brisbane using scenarios of urban growth and climate change. We downscaled the urban climate using CCAM, based on bias corrected Sea Surface Temperatures from the ACCESS1.0 projection of future climate. We used Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the periods 1990 - 2000, 2049 - 2060 and 2089 - 2090 with current land use and an urban growth scenario. The present day climatology was verified using weather station data from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. We compared the urban heat island of the present day with the urban heat island with climate change to determine if climate change altered the heat island. We also calculated heat stress using wet-bulb globe temperature and apparent temperature for the climate change and base case scenarios. We found the urban growth scenario increased present day temperatures by 0.5°C in the inner city and by 6°C during a period of hot days. The scenarios of future temperature are ongoing and will show how heat stress will change in Brisbane when both urban growth and climate change are considered.

Saving Grace - A Climate Change Documentary Education Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Byrne, J. M.; McDaniel, S.; Graham, J.; Little, L.; Hoggan, J. C.

2012-12-01

Saving Grace conveys climate change knowledge from the best international scientists and social scientists using a series of new media formats. An Education and Communication Plan (ECP) has been developed to disseminate climate change knowledge on impacts, mitigation and adaptation for individuals, and for all sectors of society. The research team is seeking contacts with science and social science colleagues around the world to provide the knowledge base for the ECP. Poverty enslaves…and climate change has, and will, spread and deepen poverty to hundreds of millions of people, primarily in the developing world. And make no mistake; we are enslaving hundreds of millions of people in a depressing and debilitating poverty that in numbers will far surpass the horrors of the slave trade of past centuries. Saving Grace is the story of that poverty - and minimizing that poverty. Saving Grace stars the best of the world's climate researchers. Saving Grace presents the science; who, where and why of greenhouse gases that drive climate change; current and projected impacts of a changing climate around the world; and most important, solutions to the climate change challenges we face.

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P. J.; Rötter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L. A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Osborne, T. M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J. W.; Williams, J. R.; Wolf, J.

2013-09-01

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.

Uncertainty in Driftless Area Cold-Water Fishery Decision Making and a Framework for Stakeholder-Based Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Z.

2015-12-01

The paradigm of stakeholder-based science is becoming more popular as organizations such as the U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers adopt it as a way of providing practicable climate change information to practitioners. One of the key issues stakeholders face in adopting climate change information into their decision processes is how uncertainty is addressed and communicated. In this study, we conducted a series of semi-structured interviews with managers and scientists working on stream habitat restoration of cold-water fisheries in the Driftless Area of Wisconsin that were focused on how they interpret and manage uncertainty and what types of information they need to make better decisions. One of the important lessons we learned from the interviews is that if researchers are going to provide useful climate change information to stakeholders, they need to understand where and how decisions are made and what adaptation measures are actually available in a given decision arena. This method of incorporating social science methods into climate science production can provide a framework for researchers from the Climate Science Centers and others who are interested in pursuing stakeholder-based science. By indentifying a specific ecological system and conducting interviews with actors who work on that system, researchers will be able to gain a better understanding of how their climate change science can fit into existing or shape new decision processes. We also interpreted lessons learned from our interviews via existing literature in areas such as stakeholder-based modeling and the decision sciences to provide guidance specific to the stakeholder-based science process.

The Icarus challenge - Predicting vulnerability to climate change using an algorithm-based species' trait approach

EPA Science Inventory

The Icarus challenge - Predicting vulnerability to climate change using an algorithm-based species’ trait approachHenry Lee II, Christina Folger, Deborah A. Reusser, Patrick Clinton, and Rene Graham1 U.S. EPA, Western Ecology Division, Newport, OR USA E-mail: lee.henry@ep...

A Design-Based Approach to Fostering Understanding of Global Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Svihla, Vanessa; Linn, Marcia C.

2012-01-01

To prepare students to make informed decisions and gain coherent understanding about global climate change, we tested and refined a middle school inquiry unit that featured interactive visualizations. Based on evidence from student pre-test responses, we increased emphasis on energy transfer and transformation. The first iteration improved…

Simulated crop yield in response to changes in climate and agricultural practices: results from a simple process based model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldararu, S.; Smith, M. J.; Purves, D.; Emmott, S.

2013-12-01

Global agriculture will, in the future, be faced with two main challenges: climate change and an increase in global food demand driven by an increase in population and changes in consumption habits. To be able to predict both the impacts of changes in climate on crop yields and the changes in agricultural practices necessary to respond to such impacts we currently need to improve our understanding of crop responses to climate and the predictive capability of our models. Ideally, what we would have at our disposal is a modelling tool which, given certain climatic conditions and agricultural practices, can predict the growth pattern and final yield of any of the major crops across the globe. We present a simple, process-based crop growth model based on the assumption that plants allocate above- and below-ground biomass to maintain overall carbon optimality and that, to maintain this optimality, the reproductive stage begins at peak nitrogen uptake. The model includes responses to available light, water, temperature and carbon dioxide concentration as well as nitrogen fertilisation and irrigation. The model is data constrained at two sites, the Yaqui Valley, Mexico for wheat and the Southern Great Plains flux site for maize and soybean, using a robust combination of space-based vegetation data (including data from the MODIS and Landsat TM and ETM+ instruments), as well as ground-based biomass and yield measurements. We show a number of climate response scenarios, including increases in temperature and carbon dioxide concentrations as well as responses to irrigation and fertiliser application.

A Survey of Registered Dietitians’ Concern and Actions Regarding Climate Change in the United States

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Irana W.; Balsam, Alan L.; Goldman, Robert

2015-01-01

Dietary choices are a tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While registered dietitians are on the front lines of food and nutrition recommendations, it is unclear how many are concerned with climate change and take action in practice in the United States. We explored concern about climate change among registered dietitians, and identified factors that may influence practice-related behaviors. Our study population included a random sample of all registered dietitians credentialed in the United States. Primary data were gathered using a cross-sectional survey. Of the 570 survey responses, 75% strongly agreed or agreed that climate change is an important issue while 34% strongly agreed or agreed that dietitians should play a major role in climate change mitigation strategies. Thirty-eight percent engaged in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Vegetarian (p = 0.002) and vegan dietitians (p = 0.007) were significantly more likely than non-vegetarian and non-vegan dietitians to engage in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Overall, concern for climate change among dietitians varied significantly by the region of the country in which the dietitian resided, and awareness that animal products are implicated in climate change. Registered dietitians in the United States are concerned with climate change. However, there is a discrepancy between concern and practice-based actions. These results suggest the need for educational and experiential opportunities connecting climate change mitigation to dietetics practice. PMID:26217666

Engaging informal audiences in learning about and responding to climate change through a portfolio of innovative approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.; Orlove, B. S.; Bachrach, E.; Hamilton, L.

2017-12-01

Informal learners have many different backgrounds, experiences, and perspectives. How can informal educators effectively reach such diverse audiences, meeting people where they are with regard to climate change? The Polar Learning and Responding: PoLAR Climate Change Education Partnership, supported by NSF, employs surveys, resource development, and research to develop innovative, evidence-based approaches that engage lifelong learners. General-public surveys on climate change yield insights on the knowledge and perceptions that informal learners bring to the table. That helps guide the creation of new tools for effective communication. For example, many people are unsure what causes sea level to rise. The Polar Explorer: Sea Level app uses a data and question-based approach guiding people through interactive maps to learn about melting land ice. In addition, people also tend to believe that climate impacts will happen in the future. Polar Voices podcasts feature Arctic Indigenous communities sharing first-hand experiences with climate change. Prior knowledge can be harnessed to enhance learning. Arctic SMARTIC engages people in role-playing negotiations with others to create a marine management plan. Climate game jams provide collaborative, creative spaces where participants learn as they interact with others. In each case participants, with all their knowledge and experience, are brought into group problem-solving. Understanding whom people trust for climate-change information offers insights that help them become climate communicators. Even those who are concerned about climate often do not discuss it with family and friends (Maibach et al. 2016), yet our research shows that family and friends are second only to scientists as trusted sources of climate information (Hamilton 2016). Fun and novel educational tools such as the EcoChains card game and the EcoKoin social networking app serve as conversation starters.

Interactive Nature of Climate Change and Aerosol Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D.; Tsigaridis, K.; Del Genio, A. D.; Kelley, M.; Tausnev, N.

2017-01-01

The effect of changing cloud cover on climate, based on cloud-aerosol interactions, is one of the major unknowns for climate forcing and climate sensitivity. It has two components: (1) the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate due to in-situ interactions (i.e., rapid response); and (2) the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback that arises as climate changes - climate feedback response. We examine both effects utilizing the NASA GISS ModelE2 to assess the indirect effect, with both mass-based and microphysical aerosol schemes, in transient twentieth-century simulations. We separate the rapid response and climate feedback effects by making simulations with a coupled version of the model as well as one with no sea surface temperature or sea ice response (atmosphere-only simulations). We show that the indirect effect of aerosols on temperature is altered by the climate feedbacks following the ocean response, and this change differs depending upon which aerosol model is employed. Overall the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for the direct effect of aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) ranges between -0.2 and -0.6 W/sq m for atmosphere-only experiments while the total effective radiative forcing, including the indirect effect (ERFari+aci) varies between about -0.4 and -1.1 W/sq m for atmosphere-only simulations; both ranges are in agreement with those given in IPCC (2013). Including the full feedback of the climate system lowers these ranges to -0.2 to -0.5 W/sq m for ERFari, and -0.3 to -0.74 W/sq m for ERFari+aci. With both aerosol schemes, the climate change feedbacks have reduced the global average indirect radiative effect of atmospheric aerosols relative to what the emission changes would have produced, at least partially due to its effect on tropical upper tropospheric clouds.

Building an ensemble of climate scenarios for decision-making in hydrology: benefits, pitfalls and uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, Marco; Chaumont, Diane

2013-04-01

Using climate model output to explore climate change impacts on hydrology requires several considerations, choices and methods in the post treatment of the datasets. In the effort of producing a comprehensive data base of climate change scenarios for over 300 watersheds in the Canadian province of Québec, a selection of state of the art procedures were applied to an ensemble comprising 87 climate simulations. The climate data ensemble is based on global climate simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 3 (CMIP3) and regional climate simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and operational simulations produced at Ouranos. Information on the response of hydrological systems to changing climate conditions can be derived by linking climate simulations with hydrological models. However, the direct use of raw climate model output variables as drivers for hydrological models is limited by issues such as spatial resolution and the calibration of hydro models with observations. Methods for downscaling and bias correcting the data are required to achieve seamless integration of climate simulations with hydro models. The effects on the results of four different approaches to data post processing were explored and compared. We present the lessons learned from building the largest data base yet for multiple stakeholders in the hydro power and water management sector in Québec putting an emphasis on the benefits and pitfalls in choosing simulations, extracting the data, performing bias corrections and documenting the results. A discussion of the sources and significance of uncertainties in the data will also be included. The climatological data base was subsequently used by the state owned hydro power company Hydro-Québec and the Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec (CEHQ), the provincial water authority, to simulate future stream flows and analyse the impacts on hydrological indicators. While this submission focuses on the production of climatic scenarios for application in hydrology, the submission « The (cQ)2 project: assessing watershed scale hydrological changes for the province of Québec at the 2050 horizon, a collaborative framework » by Catherine Guay describes how Hydro-Québec and CEHQ put the data into use.

Response of the groundwater system in the Guanzhong Basin (central China) to climate change and human activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wenke; Zhang, Zaiyong; Duan, Lei; Wang, Zhoufeng; Zhao, Yaqian; Zhang, Qian; Dai, Meiling; Liu, Huizhong; Zheng, Xiaoyan; Sun, Yibo

2018-03-01

The Guanzhong Basin in central China features a booming economy and has suffered severe drought, resulting in serious groundwater depletion in the last 30 years. As a major water resource, groundwater plays a significant role in water supply. The combined impact of climate change and intensive human activities has caused a substantial decline in groundwater recharge and groundwater levels, as well as degradation of groundwater quality and associated changes in the ecosystems. Based on observational data, an integrated approach was used to assess the impact of climate change and human activities on the groundwater system and the base flow of the river basin. Methods included: river runoff records and a multivariate statistical analysis of data including historical groundwater levels and climate; hydro-chemical investigation and trend analysis of the historical hydro-chemical data; wavelet analysis of climate data; and the base flow index. The analyses indicate a clear warming trend and a decreasing trend in rainfall since the 1960s, in addition to increased human activities since the 1970s. The reduction of groundwater recharge in the past 30 years has led to a continuous depletion of groundwater levels, complex changes of the hydro-chemical environment, localized salinization, and a strong decline of the base flow to the river. It is expected that the results will contribute to a more comprehensive management plan for groundwater and the related eco-environment in the face of growing pressures from intensive human activities superimposed on climate change in this region.

A Centroid Model of Species Distribution to Analyize Multi-directional Climate Change Finger Print in Avian Distribution in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Q.; Sauer, J.; Dubayah, R.

2015-12-01

Species distribution shift (or referred to as "fingerprint of climate change") as a primary mechanism to adapt climate change has been of great interest to ecologists and conservation practitioners. Recent meta-analyses have concluded that a wide range of animal and plant species are already shifting their distribution. However majority of the literature has focused on analyzing recent poleward and elevationally upward shift of species distribution. However if measured only in poleward shifts, the fingerprint of climate change will be underestimated significantly. In this study, we demonstrate a centroid model for range-wide analysis of distribution shifts using the North American Breeding Bird Survey. The centroid model is based on a hierarchical Bayesian framework which models population change within physiographic strata while accounting for several factors affecting species detectability. We used the centroid approach to examine large number of species permanent resident species in North America and evaluated the dreiction and magnitude of their shifting distribution. To examine the inferential ability of mean temperature and precipitation, we test a hypothesis based on climate velocity theory that species would be more likely to shift their distribution or would shift with greater magnitude in in regions with high climate change velocity. For species with significant shifts of distribution, we establish a precipitation model and a temperature model to explain their change of abundance at the strata level. Two models which are composed of mean and extreme climate indices respectively are also established to test the influences of changes in gradual and extreme climate trends.

Which early works are cited most frequently in climate change research literature? A bibliometric approach based on Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Marx, Werner; Haunschild, Robin; Thor, Andreas; Bornmann, Lutz

2017-01-01

This bibliometric analysis focuses on the general history of climate change research and, more specifically, on the discovery of the greenhouse effect. First, the Reference Publication Year Spectroscopy (RPYS) is applied to a large publication set on climate change of 222,060 papers published between 1980 and 2014. The references cited therein were extracted and analyzed with regard to publications, which are cited most frequently. Second, a new method for establishing a more subject-specific publication set for applying RPYS (based on the co-citations of a marker reference) is proposed (RPYS-CO). The RPYS of the climate change literature focuses on the history of climate change research in total. We identified 35 highly-cited publications across all disciplines, which include fundamental early scientific works of the nineteenth century (with a weak connection to climate change) and some cornerstones of science with a stronger connection to climate change. By using the Arrhenius (Philos Mag J Sci Ser 5(41):237-276, 1896) paper as a RPYS-CO marker paper, we selected only publications specifically discussing the discovery of the greenhouse effect and the role of carbon dioxide. Using different RPYS approaches in this study, we were able to identify the complete range of works of the celebrated icons as well as many less known works relevant for the history of climate change research. The analyses confirmed the potential of the RPYS method for historical studies: Seminal papers are detected on the basis of the references cited by the overall community without any further assumptions.

Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Lomba, Angela; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Alves, Paulo; Georges, Damien; Vicente, Joana R.; Honrado, João P.

2017-05-01

In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001-2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species.

Climate Change: A Review of Its Health Impact and Percieved Awareness by the Young Citizens

PubMed Central

Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

2014-01-01

In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University’s students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. PMID:24999143

Climate change: a review of its health impact and perceived awareness by the young citizens.

PubMed

Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

2014-04-16

In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University's students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences.

Reconciling justice and attribution research to advance climate policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, Christian; Wallimann-Helmer, Ivo; Stone, Dáithí; Cramer, Wolfgang

2016-10-01

The Paris Climate Agreement is an important step for international climate policy, but the compensation for negative effects of climate change based on clear assignment of responsibilities remains highly debated. From both a policy and a science perspective, it is unclear how responsibilities should be defined and on what evidence base. We explore different normative principles of justice relevant to climate change impacts, and ask how different forms of causal evidence of impacts drawn from detection and attribution research could inform policy approaches in accordance with justice considerations. We reveal a procedural injustice based on the imbalance of observations and knowledge of impacts between developed and developing countries. This type of injustice needs to be considered in policy negotiations and decisions, and efforts strengthened to reduce it.

Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya

2015-01-01

Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Climate Change and Socio-Hydrological Dynamics: Adaptations and Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woyessa, Yali E.; Welderufael, Worku A.

2012-10-01

A functioning ecological system results in ecosystem goods and services which are of direct value to human beings. Ecosystem services are the conditions and processes which sustain and fulfil human life, and maintain biodiversity and the production of ecosystem goods. However, human actions affect ecological systems and the services they provide through various activities, such as land use, water use, pollution and climate change. Climate change is perhaps one of the most important sustainable development challenges that threatens to undo many of the development efforts being made to reach the targets set for the Millennium Development Goals. Understanding the provision of ecosystem services and how they change under different scenarios of climate and biophysical conditions could assist in bringing the issue of ecosystem services into decision making process. Similarly, the impacts of land use change on ecosystems and biodiversity have received considerable attention from ecologists and hydrologists alike. Land use change in a catchment can impact on water supply by altering hydrological processes, such as infiltration, groundwater recharge, base flow and direct runoff. In the past a variety of models were used for predicting landuse changes. Recently, the focus has shifted away from using mathematically oriented models to agent-based modeling (ABM) approach to simulate land use scenarios. The agent-based perspective, with regard to land-use cover change, is centered on the general nature and rules of land-use decision making by individuals. A conceptual framework is developed to investigate the possibility of incorporating the human dimension of land use decision and climate change model into a hydrological model in order to assess the impact of future land use scenario and climate change on the ecological system in general and water resources in particular.

The WASCAL high-resolution climate projection ensemble for West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kunstmann, Harald; Heinzeller, Dominikus; Dieng, Diarra; Smiatek, Gerhard; Bliefernicht, Jan; Hamann, Ilse; Salack, Seyni

2017-04-01

With climate change being one of the most severe challenges to rural Africa in the 21st century, West Africa is facing an urgent need to develop effective adaptation and mitigation measures to protect its constantly growing population. We perform ensemble-based regional climate simulations at a high resolution of 12km for West Africa to allow a scientifically sound derivation of climate change adaptation measures. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, our ensemble consist of three simulation experiments with the Weather Research & Forecasting Tool (WRF) and one additional experiment with the Consortium for Small-scale Modelling Model COSMO in Climate Mode (COSMO-CLM). We discuss the model performance over the validation period 1980-2010, including a novel, station-based precipitation database for West Africa obtained within the WASCAL (West African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adapted Land Use) program. Particular attention is paid to the representation of the dynamics of the West African Summer Monsoon and to the added value of our high-resolution models over existing data sets. We further present results on the climate change signal obtained for the two future periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100 and compare them to current state-of-the-art projections from the CORDEX-Africa project. While the temperature change signal is similar to that obtained within CORDEX-Africa, our simulations predict a wetter future for the Coast of Guinea and the southern Soudano area and a slight drying in the northernmost part of the Sahel.

Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China.

PubMed

Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

2015-01-01

The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale.

Changes and Relationships of Climatic and Hydrological Droughts in the Jialing River Basin, China

PubMed Central

Zeng, Xiaofan; Zhao, Na; Sun, Huaiwei; Ye, Lei; Zhai, Jianqing

2015-01-01

The comprehensive assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts in terms of their temporal and spatial evolutions is very important for water resources management and social development in the basin scale. To study the spatial and temporal changes of climatic and hydrological droughts and the relationships between them, the SPEI and SDI are adopted to assess the changes and the correlations of climatic and hydrological droughts by selecting the Jialing River basin, China as the research area. The SPEI and SDI at different time scales are assessed both at the entire Jialing River basin and at the regional levels of the three sub basins. The results show that the SPEI and SDI are very suitable for assessing the changes and relationships of climatic and hydrological droughts in large basins. Based on the assessment, for the Jialing River basin, climatic and hydrological droughts have the increasing tendency during recent several decades, and the increasing trend of climatic droughts is significant or extremely significant in the western and northern basin, while hydrological drought has a less significant increasing trend. Additionally, climatic and hydrological droughts tend to increase in the next few years. The results also show that on short time scales, climatic droughts have one or two months lag impact on hydrological droughts in the north-west area of the basin, and have one month lag impact in south-east area of the basin. The assessment of climatic and hydrological droughts based on the SPEI and SDI could be very useful for water resources management and climate change adaptation at large basin scale. PMID:26544070

"The Hole in the Sky Causes Global Warming": A Case Study of Secondary School Students' Climate Change Alternative Conceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Chew-Hung; Pascua, Liberty

2015-01-01

This study identified secondary school students' alternative conceptions (ACs) of climate change and their resistance to instruction. Using a case-based approach, a diagnostic test was administered to Secondary 3 male students in a pre-test and post-test. The ACs identified in the pre-test were on the causes of climate change, the natural…

Climate and land use controls over terrestrial water use efficiency in monsoon Asia.

Treesearch

Hanqin Tian; Chaoqun Lu; Guangsheng Chen; Xiaofeng Xu; Mingliang Liu; et al

2011-01-01

Much concern has been raised regarding how and to what extent climate change and intensive human activities have altered water use efficiency (WUE, amount of carbon uptake per unit of water use) in monsoon Asia. By using a process-based ecosystem model [dynamic land ecosystem model (DLEM)], we examined effects of climate change, land use/cover change, and land...

Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Judith D. Gardiner; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew Peters

2013-01-01

Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new...

Multi-model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi-arid shrub

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renwick, Katherine M.; Curtis, Caroline; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Poulter, Benjamin; Adler, Peter B.

2018-01-01

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi-model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata, we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi-model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.

Simulating streamflow in ungauged basins under a changing climate: The importance of landscape characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Laudon, Hjalmar; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Bishop, Kevin

2018-06-01

In this paper we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected changes in streamflow signatures. These were then used to analyze hydrological consequences of physical perturbations in a hypothetically ungauged basin in a climate change context. Our analysis showed a strong connection between the forest cover extent and the sensitivity of different components of a catchment's hydrological regime to changing climate conditions. This emphasizes the need to redefine forestry goals and practices in advance of climate change-related risks and uncertainties.

Strategic plant choices can alleviate climate change impacts: A review.

PubMed

Espeland, Erin K; Kettenring, Karin M

2018-09-15

Ecosystem-based adaptation (EbA) uses biodiversity and ecosystem services to reduce climate change impacts to local communities. Because plants can alleviate the abiotic and biotic stresses of climate change, purposeful plant choices could improve adaptation. However, there has been no systematic review of how plants can be applied to alleviate effects of climate change. Here we describe how plants can modify climate change effects by altering biological and physical processes. Plant effects range from increasing soil stabilization to reducing the impact of flooding and storm surges. Given the global scale of plant-related activities such as farming, landscaping, forestry, conservation, and restoration, plants can be selected strategically-i.e., planting and maintaining particular species with desired impacts-to simultaneously restore degraded ecosystems, conserve ecosystem function, and help alleviate effects of climate change. Plants are a tool for EbA that should be more broadly and strategically utilized. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Climate change and the past, present, and future of biotic interactions.

PubMed

Blois, Jessica L; Zarnetske, Phoebe L; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Finnegan, Seth

2013-08-02

Biotic interactions drive key ecological and evolutionary processes and mediate ecosystem responses to climate change. The direction, frequency, and intensity of biotic interactions can in turn be altered by climate change. Understanding the complex interplay between climate and biotic interactions is thus essential for fully anticipating how ecosystems will respond to the fast rates of current warming, which are unprecedented since the end of the last glacial period. We highlight episodes of climate change that have disrupted ecosystems and trophic interactions over time scales ranging from years to millennia by changing species' relative abundances and geographic ranges, causing extinctions, and creating transient and novel communities dominated by generalist species and interactions. These patterns emerge repeatedly across disparate temporal and spatial scales, suggesting the possibility of similar underlying processes. Based on these findings, we identify knowledge gaps and fruitful areas for research that will further our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystems.

The legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations.

PubMed

Karlsson, Christer; Hjerpe, Mattias; Parker, Charles; Linner, Bjorn-Ola

2012-01-01

Leadeship is an essential ingredient in reaching international agreements and overcoming the collective action problems associated with responding to climate change. In this study, we aim at answering two questions that are crucial for understanding the legitimacy of leadership in international climate change negotiations. Based on the responses of the three consecutive surveys distributed at COPs 14-16, we seek first to chart which actors are actually recognized as leaders by climate change negotiation participants. Second, we aim to explain what motivates COP participants to support different actors as leaders. Both these questions are indeed crucial for understanding the role, importance, and legitimacy of leadership in the international climate change regime. Our results show that the leadership landscape in this issue area is fragmented, with no one clear-cut leader, and strongly suggest that it is imperative for any actor seeking recognition as climate change leader to be perceived as being devoted to promoting the common good.

High skill in low-frequency climate response through fluctuation dissipation theorems despite structural instability.

PubMed

Majda, Andrew J; Abramov, Rafail; Gershgorin, Boris

2010-01-12

Climate change science focuses on predicting the coarse-grained, planetary-scale, longtime changes in the climate system due to either changes in external forcing or internal variability, such as the impact of increased carbon dioxide. The predictions of climate change science are carried out through comprehensive, computational atmospheric, and oceanic simulation models, which necessarily parameterize physical features such as clouds, sea ice cover, etc. Recently, it has been suggested that there is irreducible imprecision in such climate models that manifests itself as structural instability in climate statistics and which can significantly hamper the skill of computer models for climate change. A systematic approach to deal with this irreducible imprecision is advocated through algorithms based on the Fluctuation Dissipation Theorem (FDT). There are important practical and computational advantages for climate change science when a skillful FDT algorithm is established. The FDT response operator can be utilized directly for multiple climate change scenarios, multiple changes in forcing, and other parameters, such as damping and inverse modelling directly without the need of running the complex climate model in each individual case. The high skill of FDT in predicting climate change, despite structural instability, is developed in an unambiguous fashion using mathematical theory as guidelines in three different test models: a generic class of analytical models mimicking the dynamical core of the computer climate models, reduced stochastic models for low-frequency variability, and models with a significant new type of irreducible imprecision involving many fast, unstable modes.

Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants; the case of Punjab province, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abid, M.; Scheffran, J.; Schneider, U. A.; Ashfaq, M.

2014-10-01

Climate change is a global environmental threat to all economic sectors, particularly the agricultural sector. Pakistan is one of the negatively affected countries from climate change due to its high exposure to extreme events and low adaptive capacity. In Pakistan, farmers are the primary stakeholders in agriculture and are more at risk due to climate vulnerability. Based on farm household data of 450 households collected from three districts in three agro-ecological zones in Punjab province of Pakistan, this study examined how farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt their farming in response to perceived changes in climate. The results demonstrate that awareness to climate change persists in the area, and farm households make adjustments to adapt their agriculture in response to climatic change. Overall 58% of the farm households adapted their farming to climate change. Changing crop varieties, changing planting dates, plantation of trees and changing fertilizer were the main adaptation methods implemented by farm households in the study area. Results from the binary logistic model revealed that education, farm experience, household size, land area, tenancy status, ownership of tube-well, access to market information, information on weather forecasting and extension all influence the farmers' choice of adaptation measures. Results also indicate that adaptation to climate change is constrained by several factors such as lack of information; lack of money; resource constraint and shortage of irrigation water in the study area. Findings of the study suggest the need of greater investment in farmer education and improved institutional setup for climate change adaptation to improve farmers' wellbeing.

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

PubMed Central

Nelson, Kären C; Palmer, Margaret A; Pizzuto, James E; Moglen, Glenn E; Angermeier, Paul L; Hilderbrand, Robert H; Dettinger, Michael; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Streams collect runoff, heat, and sediment from their watersheds, making them highly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances such as urbanization and climate change. Forecasting the effects of these disturbances using process-based models is critical to identifying the form and magnitude of likely impacts. Here, we integrate a new biotic model with four previously developed physical models (downscaled climate projections, stream hydrology, geomorphology, and water temperature) to predict how stream fish growth and reproduction will most probably respond to shifts in climate and urbanization over the next several decades. The biotic submodel couples dynamics in fish populations and habitat suitability to predict fish assemblage composition, based on readily available biotic information (preferences for habitat, temperature, and food, and characteristics of spawning) and day-to-day variability in stream conditions. We illustrate the model using Piedmont headwater streams in the Chesapeake Bay watershed of the USA, projecting ten scenarios: Baseline (low urbanization; no on-going construction; and present-day climate); one Urbanization scenario (higher impervious surface, lower forest cover, significant construction activity); four future climate change scenarios [Hadley CM3 and Parallel Climate Models under medium-high (A2) and medium-low (B2) emissions scenarios]; and the same four climate change scenarios plus Urbanization. Urbanization alone depressed growth or reproduction of 8 of 39 species, while climate change alone depressed 22 to 29 species. Almost every recreationally important species (i.e. trouts, basses, sunfishes) and six of the ten currently most common species were predicted to be significantly stressed. The combined effect of climate change and urbanization on adult growth was sometimes large compared to the effect of either stressor alone. Thus, the model predicts considerable change in fish assemblage composition, including loss of diversity. Synthesis and applications. The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems. PMID:19536343

Climate Justice in Rural Southeastern United States: A Review of Climate Change Impacts and Effects on Human Health

PubMed Central

Gutierrez, Kristie S.; LePrevost, Catherine E.

2016-01-01

Climate justice is a local, national, and global movement to protect at-risk populations who are disproportionately affected by climate change. The social context for this review is the Southeastern region of the United States, which is particularly susceptible to climate change because of the geography of the area and the vulnerabilities of the inhabiting populations. Negative human health effects on variable and vulnerable populations within the Southeast region due to changing climate are concerning, as health threats are not expected to produce parallel effects among all individuals. Vulnerable communities, such as communities of color, indigenous people, the geographically isolated, and those who are socioeconomically disadvantaged and already experiencing poor environmental quality, are least able to respond and adapt to climate change. Focusing on vulnerable populations in the Southeastern United States, this review is a synthesis of the recent (2010 to 2015) literature-base on the health effects connected to climate change. This review also addresses local and regional mitigation and adaptation strategies for citizens and leaders to combat direct and indirect human health effects related to a changing climate. PMID:26848673

Threshold effects in the vegetation response to Holocene climate changes in central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.

2015-12-01

Understanding the response of ecosystems to past climate is critical for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes. A relatively abrupt vegetation shift in response to the late Holocene gradual climate changes has been well documented for the Sahara-Sahel ecosystem. However, whether such threshold shift is of universal significance remains to be further addressed. Here, we examine the vegetation-climate relationships in central Asia based on four newly recovered Holocene pollen records and a synthesis on previously published pollen data. The results show that the orbital-induced gradual climate trend during the Holocene led to two major abrupt vegetation shifts, and that the timings of these shifts are highly dependent of the local rainfall conditions. Instead, the mid-Holocene vegetation remained rather stable despite of the changing climate. These new findings demonstrate generally significant threshold and truncation effects of climate changes on vegetation, as are strongly supported by surface pollen data and LPJ-GUESS modeling. The results also imply that using pollen data to reconstruct past climate changes is not always straightforward. Our findings have important implication for understanding the potential effects of global warming on dryland ecosystem change.

Local farmers' perceptions of climate change and local adaptive strategies: a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, Tibet, China.

PubMed

Li, Chunyan; Tang, Ya; Luo, Han; Di, Baofeng; Zhang, Liyun

2013-10-01

Climate change affects the productivity of agricultural ecosystems. Farmers cope with climate change based on their perceptions of changing climate patterns. Using a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, we present a new research framework that uses questionnaire and interview methods to compare local farmers' perceptions of climate change with the adaptive farming strategies they adopt. Most farmers in the valley believed that temperatures had increased in the last 30 years but did not note any changes in precipitation. Most farmers also reported sowing and harvesting hulless barley 10-15 days earlier than they were 20 years ago. In addition, farmers observed that plants were flowering and river ice was melting earlier in the season, but they did not perceive changes in plant germination, herbaceous vegetation growth, or other spring seasonal events. Most farmers noticed an extended fall season signified by delays in the freezing of rivers and an extended growing season for grassland vegetation. The study results showed that agricultural practices in the study area are still traditional; that is, local farmers' perceptions of climate change and their strategies to mitigate its impacts were based on indigenous knowledge and their own experiences. Adaptive strategies included adjusting planting and harvesting dates, changing crop species, and improving irrigation infrastructure. However, the farmers' decisions could not be fully attributed to their concerns about climate change. Local farming systems exhibit high adaptability to climate variability. Additionally, off-farm income has reduced the dependence of the farmers on agriculture, and an agricultural subsidy from the Chinese Central Government has mitigated the farmers' vulnerability. Nevertheless, it remains necessary for local farmers to build a system of adaptive climate change strategies that combines traditional experience and indigenous knowledge with scientific research and government polices as key factors.

Local Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Change and Local Adaptive Strategies: A Case Study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, Tibet, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chunyan; Tang, Ya; Luo, Han; Di, Baofeng; Zhang, Liyun

2013-10-01

Climate change affects the productivity of agricultural ecosystems. Farmers cope with climate change based on their perceptions of changing climate patterns. Using a case study from the Middle Yarlung Zangbo River Valley, we present a new research framework that uses questionnaire and interview methods to compare local farmers' perceptions of climate change with the adaptive farming strategies they adopt. Most farmers in the valley believed that temperatures had increased in the last 30 years but did not note any changes in precipitation. Most farmers also reported sowing and harvesting hulless barley 10-15 days earlier than they were 20 years ago. In addition, farmers observed that plants were flowering and river ice was melting earlier in the season, but they did not perceive changes in plant germination, herbaceous vegetation growth, or other spring seasonal events. Most farmers noticed an extended fall season signified by delays in the freezing of rivers and an extended growing season for grassland vegetation. The study results showed that agricultural practices in the study area are still traditional; that is, local farmers' perceptions of climate change and their strategies to mitigate its impacts were based on indigenous knowledge and their own experiences. Adaptive strategies included adjusting planting and harvesting dates, changing crop species, and improving irrigation infrastructure. However, the farmers' decisions could not be fully attributed to their concerns about climate change. Local farming systems exhibit high adaptability to climate variability. Additionally, off-farm income has reduced the dependence of the farmers on agriculture, and an agricultural subsidy from the Chinese Central Government has mitigated the farmers' vulnerability. Nevertheless, it remains necessary for local farmers to build a system of adaptive climate change strategies that combines traditional experience and indigenous knowledge with scientific research and government polices as key factors.

The climate crisis: An introductory guide to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.

2011-06-01

Human-induced climate change, sometimes called “global warming,” has, unfortunately, become a “hot” topic, embroiled in controversy, misinformation, and claims and counterclaims. It should not be this way, because there are many scientific facts that provide solid information on which to base policy. There is a very strong observational, theoretical, and modeling base in physical science that underpins current understanding of what has happened to Earth's climate and why and what the prospects are for the future under certain assumptions. Moreover, these changes have impacts, which are apt to grow, on the environment and human society. To avoid or reduce these impacts and the economic and human effects of undesirable future climate change requires actions that are strongly opposed by those with vested interests in the status quo, some of whom have funded misinformation campaigns that have successfully confused the public and some politicians, leading to paralysis in political action. Without mitigation of climate change, one would suppose that at least society would plan sensibly for the changes already happening and projected, but such future adaptation plans are also largely in limbo. The implication is that we will suffer the consequences. All of these aspects are addressed in this informative and attractive book, which is written for a fairly general but technically informed audience. The book is strongly based upon the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and therefore has a solid scientific basis. Many figures, graphs, and maps come from the three IPCC working group reports, although the captions often do not explain the detail shown. Given that the IPCC reports totaled nearly 3000 pages, to distill the complex material down to 249 pages is no mean task, and the authors have succeeded quite well.

Land use allocation model considering climate change impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Yoon, E. J.; Song, Y. I.

2017-12-01

In Korea, climate change adaptation plans are being developed for each administrative district based on impact assessments constructed in various fields. This climate change impact assessments are superimposed on the actual space, which causes problems in land use allocation because the spatial distribution of individual impacts may be different each other. This implies that trade-offs between climate change impacts can occur depending on the composition of land use. Moreover, the actual space is complexly intertwined with various factors such as required area, legal regulations, and socioeconomic values, so land use allocation in consideration of climate change can be very difficult problem to solve (Liu et al. 2012; Porta et al. 2013).Optimization techniques can generate a sufficiently good alternatives for land use allocation at the strategic level if only the fitness function of relationship between impact and land use composition are derived. It has also been noted that land use optimization model is more effective than the scenario-based prediction model in achieving the objectives for problem solving (Zhang et al. 2014). Therefore in this study, we developed a quantitative tool, MOGA (Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm), which can generate a comprehensive land use allocations considering various climate change impacts, and apply it to the Gangwon-do in Korea. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are the most popular optimization technique to address multi-objective in land use allocation. Also, it allows for immediate feedback to stake holders because it can run a number of experiments with different parameter values. And it is expected that land use decision makers and planners can formulate a detailed spatial plan or perform additional analysis based on the result of optimization model. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program (Project number: 2014001310006)"

Assessing adaptation to the health risks of climate change: what guidance can existing frameworks provide?

PubMed

Füssel, Hans-Martin

2008-02-01

Climate change adaptation assessments aim at assisting policy-makers in reducing the health risks associated with climate change and variability. This paper identifies key characteristics of the climate-health relationship and of the adaptation decision problem that require consideration in climate change adaptation assessments. It then analyzes whether these characteristics are appropriately considered in existing guidelines for climate impact and adaptation assessment and in pertinent conceptual models from environmental epidemiology. The review finds three assessment guidelines based on a generalized risk management framework to be most useful for guiding adaptation assessments of human health. Since none of them adequately addresses all key challenges of the adaptation decision problem, actual adaptation assessments need to combine elements from different guidelines. Established conceptual models from environmental epidemiology are found to be of limited relevance for assessing and planning adaptation to climate change since the prevailing toxicological model of environmental health is not applicable to many climate-sensitive health risks.

Implications of climate change damage for agriculture: sectoral evidence from Pakistan.

PubMed

Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem

2016-10-01

This paper gives a projection of the possible damage of climate change on the agriculture sector of Pakistan for the period 2012-2037, based on a dynamic approach, using an environment-related applied computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Climate damage projections depict an upward trend for the period of review and are found to be higher than the global average. Further, the damage to the agricultural sector exceeds that for the overall economy. By sector, climatic damage disproportionately affects the major and minor crops, livestock and fisheries. The largest losses following climate change, relative to the other agricultural sectors, are expected for livestock. The reason for this is the orthodox system of production for livestock, with a low adaptability to negative shocks of climate change. Overall, the findings reveal the high exposure of the agriculture sector to climate damage. In this regard, policymakers in Pakistan should take seriously the effects of climate change on agriculture and consider suitable technology to mitigate those damages.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Streamflow and Nutrient Loading in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed in Southern Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osidele, O.; Sun, A.; Green, R.

2011-12-01

Based on results of the Second National Climate Assessment reported in 2009, the U.S. Global Change Research Program projects temperatures in southern Texas will increase 5 to 8° F by the end of the 21st century, with larger changes occurring under scenarios of higher greenhouse gas emissions. Temperature increases in summer are projected to be larger than in winter. Although drier conditions are expected in the region, sea-level rise, extreme rainfall events, and associated storm surges are projected to occur more frequently because of the likely increase in intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico. The range of possible responses to climate change is attributable to a combination of characteristics at global, regional, and local scales. The risk of flooding and catastrophic infrastructure damage due to global climate phenomena has been incorporated into local climate adaptation plans for many low-lying areas and communities in the Gulf Coast region of southern Texas. However, because this region is dominated by irrigated agriculture and the population is projected to double by 2050, it is important to examine how climate change will affect water resources and environmental quality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the potential hydrologic and water quality impacts of projected climate change, land use change, and population change scenarios in the headwaters of the Arroyo Colorado. The results of this work will provide content for a web-based, collaborative geospatial decision support system being developed to support environmental management in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed. Presently, land use in the Arroyo Colorado Watershed is more than 50 percent agricultural and almost 25 percent residential with varying levels of urbanization. As a result, flow in the Arroyo Colorado is sustained primarily by discharge from municipal wastewater treatment facilities, irrigation return flows, and urban storm runoff. In this study, streamflow and nutrient loading simulations for the Arroyo Colorado Watershed are based on the application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model driven by projected future climatic conditions generated from five global circulation models under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Land use change data are incorporated based on various remote sensing earth observation products including NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer datasets and Landsat images in the multiagency National Land Cover Database. Population change and urbanization are considered in terms of changes in permitted wastewater treatment discharges. The findings of this study indicate that hydrological models like SWAT are useful tools for evaluating the watershed impacts from global climate change scenarios. In developing climate adaption plans, such models should include significant interactions among various local water management systems driven by population growth and urbanization in communities, and site-specific agricultural water use.

Examining Long-Term Global Climate Change on the Web.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huntoon, Jacqueline E.; Ridky, Robert K.

2002-01-01

Describes a web-based, inquiry-oriented activity that enables students to examine long-term global climate change. Supports instruction in other topics such as population growth. (Contains 34 references.) (DDR)

Effects of climate change on plant population growth rate and community composition change.

PubMed

Chang, Xiao-Yu; Chen, Bao-Ming; Liu, Gang; Zhou, Ting; Jia, Xiao-Rong; Peng, Shao-Lin

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate change on forest community composition are still not well known. Although directional trends in climate change and community composition change were reported in recent years, further quantitative analyses are urgently needed. Previous studies focused on measuring population growth rates in a single time period, neglecting the development of the populations. Here we aimed to compose a method for calculating the community composition change, and to testify the impacts of climate change on community composition change within a relatively short period (several decades) based on long-term monitoring data from two plots-Dinghushan Biosphere Reserve, China (DBR) and Barro Colorado Island, Panama (BCI)-that are located in tropical and subtropical regions. We proposed a relatively more concise index, Slnλ, which refers to an overall population growth rate based on the dominant species in a community. The results indicated that the population growth rate of a majority of populations has decreased over the past few decades. This decrease was mainly caused by population development. The increasing temperature had a positive effect on population growth rates and community change rates. Our results promote understanding and explaining variations in population growth rates and community composition rates, and are helpful to predict population dynamics and population responses to climate change.

Downscaling U.S. public opinion about climate change and the 'Six Americas' to states, cities, and counties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marlon, J. R.; Howe, P. D.; Leiserowitz, A.

2013-12-01

For climate change communication to be most effective, messages should be targeted to the characteristics of local audiences. In the U.S., 'Six Americas' have been identified among the public based on their response to the climate change issue. The distribution of these different 'publics' varies between states and communities, yet data about public opinion at the sub-national scale remains scarce. In this presentation, we describe a methodology to statistically downscale results from national-level surveys about the Six Americas, climate literacy, and other aspects of public opinion to smaller areas, including states, metropolitan areas, and counties. The method utilizes multilevel regression with poststratification (MRP) to model public opinion at various scales using a large national-level survey dataset. We present state and county-level estimates of two key beliefs about climate change: belief that climate change is happening, and belief in the scientific consensus about climate change. We further present estimates of how the Six Americas vary across the U.S.

Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Horton, Daniel E

2018-05-26

Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extremes exceed their historical windows of variability within impact-relevant socioeconomic, geopolitical, and ecological domains, we investigate the timing of perceivable changes (time of emergence; TOE) for 18 magnitude-, frequency-, and severity-based extreme temperature (10) and precipitation (8) indices using both multimodel and single-model multirealization ensembles. Under a high-emission scenario, we find that the signal of frequency- and severity-based temperature extremes is projected to rise above historical noise earliest in midlatitudes, whereas magnitude-based temperature extremes emerge first in low and high latitudes. Precipitation extremes demonstrate different emergence patterns, with severity-based indices first emerging over midlatitudes, and magnitude- and frequency-based indices emerging earliest in low and high latitudes. Applied to impact-relevant domains, simulated TOE patterns suggest (a) unprecedented consecutive dry day occurrence in >50% of 14 terrestrial biomes and 12 marine realms prior to 2100, (b) earlier perceivable changes in climate extremes in countries with lower per capita GDP, and (c) emergence of severe and frequent heat extremes well-before 2030 for the 590 most populous urban centers. Elucidating extreme-metric and domain-type TOE heterogeneities highlights the challenges adaptation planners face in confronting the consequences of elevated twenty-first century radiative forcing. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Observations of climate change among subsistence-oriented communities around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savo, V.; Lepofsky, D.; Benner, J. P.; Kohfeld, K. E.; Bailey, J.; Lertzman, K.

2016-05-01

The study of climate change has been based strongly on data collected from instruments, but how local people perceive such changes remains poorly quantified. We conducted a meta-analysis of climatic changes observed by subsistence-oriented communities. Our review of 10,660 observations from 2,230 localities in 137 countries shows that increases in temperature and changes in seasonality and rainfall patterns are widespread (~70% of localities across 122 countries). Observations of increased temperature show patterns consistent with simulated trends in surface air temperature taken from the ensemble average of CMIP5 models, for the period 1955-2005. Secondary impacts of climatic changes on both wild and domesticated plants and animals are extensive and threaten the food security of subsistence-oriented communities. Collectively, our results suggest that climate change is having profound disruptive effects at local levels and that local observations can make an important contribution to understanding the pervasiveness of climate change on ecosystems and societies.

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change. PMID:26466364

Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

PubMed

Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

2013-12-01

Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-11-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.

Updating Known Distribution Models for Forecasting Climate Change Impact on Endangered Species

PubMed Central

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only. PMID:23840330

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

PubMed

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, 1 December 1991--30 June 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wigley, T.M.L.; Jones, P.D.

1994-07-01

In addition to changes due to variations in greenhouse gas concentrations, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the enhanced greenhouse effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics. To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided bymore » a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to ocean General Circulation Models. Appendices A--G contain the following seven papers: (A) Recent global warmth moderated by the effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption; (B) Recent warming in global temperature series; (C) Correlation methods in fingerprint detection studies; (D) Balancing the carbon budget. Implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration changes; (E) A simple model for estimating methane concentration and lifetime variations; (F) Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios; and (G) Sulfate aerosol and climatic change.« less

Land Use, climate change and BIOdiversity in cultural landscapes (LUBIO): Assessing feedbacks and promoting land-use strategies towards a viable future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dullinger, Iwona; Bohner, Andreas; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz; Gaube, Veronika; Haberl, Helmut; Mayer, Andreas; Plutzar, Christoph; Remesch, Alexander

2016-04-01

Land-use and climate change are important, pervasive drivers of global environmental change and pose major threats to global biodiversity. Research to date has mostly focused either on land-use change or on climate change, but rarely on the interactions between both drivers, even though it is expected that systemic feedbacks between changes in climate and land use will have important effects on biodiversity. In particular, climate change will not only alter the pool of plant and animal species capable of thriving in a specific area, it will also force land owners to reconsider their land use decisions. Such changes in land-use practices may have major additional effects on local and regional species composition and abundance. In LUBIO, we will explore the anticipated systemic feedbacks between (1) climate change, (2) land owner's decisions on land use, (3) land-use change, and (4) changes in biodiversity patterns during the coming decades in a regional context which integrates a broad range of land use practices and intensity gradients. To achieve this goal, an integrated socioecological model will be designed and implemented, consisting of three principal components: (1) an agent based model (ABM) that simulates decisions of important actors, (2) a spatially explicit GIS model that translates these decisions into changes in land cover and land use patterns, and (3) a species distribution model (SDM) that calculates changes in biodiversity patterns following from both changes in climate and the land use decisions as simulated in the ABM. Upon integration of these three components, the coupled socioecological model will be used to generate scenarios of future land-use decisions of landowners under climate change and, eventually, the combined effects of climate and land use changes on biodiversity. Model development of the ABM will be supported by a participatory process intended to collect regional and expert knowledge through a series of expert interviews, a series of transdisciplinary participatory modelling workshops, and a questionnaire-based survey targeted at regional farmers. Beside the integrated socioecological model a catalogue of recommended actions will be developed in order to distribute the insights of the research to the most relevant regional stakeholder groups.

Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases.

PubMed

Semenza, Jan C; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

2012-04-01

The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998-2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options.

Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases

PubMed Central

Semenza, Jan C.; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E.; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

2011-01-01

The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998–2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options. PMID:24808720

Climate Change Adaptation Practices in Various Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanik, A.; Tekten, D.

2017-08-01

The paper will be a review work on the recent strategies of EU in general, and will underline the inspected sectoral based adaptation practices and action plans of 7 countries; namely Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Denmark, USA and Kenya from Africa continent. Although every countries’ action plan have some similarities on sectoral analysis, each country in accordance with the specific nature of the problem seems to create its own sectoral analysis. Within this context, green and white documents of EU adaptation to climate change, EU strategy on climate change, EU targets of 2020 on climate change and EU adaptation support tools are investigated.

Climate Change and Food Safety: Beyond Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ziska, L. H.; Crimmins, A. R.

2016-12-01

There is merited interest in determining the extent of climate disruption on agricultural production and food security. However, additional aspects of food security, including food safety, nutrition and distribution have, overall, received less attention. Beginning in 2013, the U.S. Global Change Research Program as part of the ongoing National Climate Assessment, began a directed effort to evaluate the vulnerability of climate change to these under-represented aspects of food security for developed countries. Based on this extensive review of current science, several key findings were developed: (a) Climate change, including rising temperatures and changes in weather extremes, is expected to increase the exposure of food to certain pathogens and toxins; (b) Climate change will increase human exposure to chemical contaminants in food through several pathways; (c) The nutritional value of agriculturally important food crops, including cereals, will decrease in response to the ongoing increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide; (d) Increases in the frequency or intensity of extreme weather events associated with climate change may disrupt food distribution. These findings will be presented as a means to describe the state of the science and expand on food security research in the broader context of public health and climate change.

Responses of Terrestrial Ecosystems’ Net Primary Productivity to Future Regional Climate Change in China

PubMed Central

Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

2013-01-01

The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems’ response to global climate change. China’s ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China’s terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change. PMID:23593325

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems' net primary productivity to future regional climate change in China.

PubMed

Zhao, Dongsheng; Wu, Shaohong; Yin, Yunhe

2013-01-01

The impact of regional climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) is an important aspect in the study of ecosystems' response to global climate change. China's ecosystems are very sensitive to climate change owing to the influence of the East Asian monsoon. The Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for China (LPJ-CN), a global dynamical vegetation model developed for China's terrestrial ecosystems, was applied in this study to simulate the NPP changes affected by future climate change. As the LPJ-CN model is based on natural vegetation, the simulation in this study did not consider the influence of anthropogenic activities. Results suggest that future climate change would have adverse effects on natural ecosystems, with NPP tending to decrease in eastern China, particularly in the temperate and warm temperate regions. NPP would increase in western China, with a concentration in the Tibetan Plateau and the northwest arid regions. The increasing trend in NPP in western China and the decreasing trend in eastern China would be further enhanced by the warming climate. The spatial distribution of NPP, which declines from the southeast coast to the northwest inland, would have minimal variation under scenarios of climate change.

Northwest Ohio crop yield benefits of water capture and subirrigation based on future climate change projections

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change projections for the Midwest U.S. indicate increased growing season crop water deficits in the future that will adversely impact the sustainability of agricultural production. Systems that capture water on site for later subirrigation use have potential as a climate adaptation strateg...

Constrained range expansion and climate change assessments

Treesearch

Yohay Carmel; Curtis H. Flather

2006-01-01

Modeling the future distribution of keystone species has proved to be an important approach to assessing the potential ecological consequences of climate change (Loehle and LeBlanc 1996; Hansen et al. 2001). Predictions of range shifts are typically based on empirical models derived from simple correlative relationships between climatic characteristics of occupied and...

GPCC - A weather generator-based statistical downscaling tool for site-specific assessment of climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Resolution of climate model outputs are too coarse to be used as direct inputs to impact models for assessing climate change impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and eco-system services at local or site-specific scales. Statistical downscaling approaches are usually used to bridge th...

Assessing Climate Misconceptions of Middle School Learners and Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahagian, D. L.; Anastasio, D. J.; Bodzin, A.; Cirucci, L.; Bressler, D.; Dempsey, C.; Peffer, T.

2012-12-01

Middle School students and their teachers are among the many populations in the U.S. with misconceptions regarding the science or even reality of climate change. Teaching climate change science in schools is of paramount importance since all school-age children will eventually assume responsibility for the management and policy-making decisions of our planet. The recently published Framework for K-12 Science Education (National Research Council, 2012) emphasizes the importance of students understanding global climate change and its impacts on society. A preliminary assessment of over a thousand urban middles school students found the following from pretests prior to a climate literacy curriculum: - Do not understand that climate occurs on a time scale of decades (most think it is weeks or months) -Do not know the main atmospheric contributors to global warming -Do not understand the role of greenhouse gases as major contributors to increasing Earth's surface temperature -Do not understand the role of water vapor to trap heat and add to the greenhouse effect -Cannot identify some of the human activities that increase the amount of CO2 -Cannot identify sources of carbon emissions produced by US citizens -Cannot describe human activities that are causing the long-term increase of carbon -dioxide levels over the last 100 years -Cannot describe carbon reduction strategies that are feasible for lowering the levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere To address the lack of a well-designed middle school science climate change curriculum that can be used to help teachers promote the teaching and learning of important climate change concepts, we developed a 20-day Environmental Literacy and Inquiry (ELI): Climate Change curriculum in partnership with a local school district. Comprehension increased significantly from pre- to post-test after enactment of the ELI curriculum in the classrooms. This work is part of an ongoing systemic curriculum reform initiative to promote (1) environmental literacy and inquiry and (2) foster the development of geospatial thinking and reasoning using geospatial technologies as an essential component of the middle school science curriculum. The curriculum is designed to align instructional materials and assessments with learning goals. The following frameworks were used to provide guidelines for the climate change science content in addition to the science inquiry upon which schools must focus: Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences (U.S. Global Change Research Program, 2009) and the AAAS Project 2061 Communicating and Learning About Global Climate Change (AAAS, 2007). The curriculum is a coherent sequence of learning activities that include climate change investigations with Google Earth, Web-based interactivities that include an online carbon emissions calculator and a Web-based geologic time-line, and inquiry-based ("hands-on") laboratories. The climate change science topics include the atmosphere, Earth system energy balance, weather, greenhouse gases, paleoclimatology, and "humans and climate". It is hoped that with a solid foundation of climate science in the classroom, middle school learners will be in a position to evaluate new scientific discoveries, emerging data sets, and reasonably assess information and misinformation by which they are surrounded on a daily basis.

Quantifying Risks in the Global Water-Food-Climate Nexus in the Coming Decades: An Integrated Modeling Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlosser, C. A.; Strzepek, K.; Arndt, C.; Gueneau, A.; Cai, Y.; Gao, X.; Robinson, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Thurlow, J.

2011-12-01

The growing need for risk-based assessments of impacts and adaptation to regional climate change calls for the quantification of the likelihood of regional outcomes and the representation of their uncertainty. Moreover, our global water resources include energy, agricultural and environmental systems, which are linked together as well as to climate. With the prospect of potential climate change and associated shifts in hydrologic variation and extremes, the MIT Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) framework, in collaboration with UNU-WIDER, has enhanced its capabilities to model impacts (or effects) on the managed water-resource systems. We first present a hybrid approach that extends the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) framework to provide probabilistic projections of regional climate changes. This procedure constructs meta-ensembles of the regional hydro-climate, combining projections from the MIT IGSM that represent global-scale uncertainties with regionally resolved patterns from archived climate-model projections. From these, a river routing and water-resource management module allocates water among irrigation, hydropower, urban/industrial, and in-stream uses and investigate how society might adapt water resources due to shifts in hydro-climate variations and extremes. These results are then incorporated into economic models allowing us to consider the implications of climate for growth, land use, and development prospects. In this model-based investigation, we consider how changes in the regional hydro-climate over major river basins in southern Africa, Vietnam, as well as the United States impact agricultural productivity and water-management systems, and whether adaptive strategies can cope with the more severe climate-related threats to growth and development. All this is cast under a probabilistic description of regional climate changes encompassed by the IGSM framework.

Connecting Stakeholders and Climate Science: A Summary of Farmer, Rancher, and Forester Climate Data Needs and Climate Change Attitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rango, A.; Crimmins, M.; Elias, E.; Steele, C. M.; Weiss, J. L.

2015-12-01

The mission of the USDA Southwest Regional Climate Hub is to provide farmers, ranchers and forest land owners and managers with information and resources to cope with the impacts of climate change. As such, a clear understanding of landowner needs for weather and climate data and their attitudes about climate change is required. Here we present a summary of results from 17 peer-reviewed articles on studies pertaining to landowner needs and attitudes towards climate change adaptation and mitigation that span much of the continental U.S. and ideally represent a cross-section of different geographies. In general, approximately 75% of landowners and farm advisors believe climate change is occurring, but disagree on the human contribution. Studies found that most farmers were supportive of adaptation responses, but fewer endorsed farm-based greenhouse gas reduction mitigation strategies. Adaptation is often driven by local concerns and requires locally specific strategies. Perceiving weather variability increased belief in human-caused climate change. Presently farmers and ranchers rely on past experience and short-range forecasts (weeks to seasons) whereas some foresters are requesting long-term predictions on the order of years to decades. Foresters indicated that most of them (74%) are presently unable to find needed long-term information. We augment peer-reviewed literature with observations from landowner workshops conducted in Nevada and Arizona during 2014, the first year of Climate Hub operation. To better collect information about climate change needs and attitudes of farmers, ranchers and foresters across the globe, we created a Climate Change Attitudes collection in JournalMap (https://journalmap.org/usda-southwest-regional-climate-hub/climate-change-attitudes). Users anywhere can add articles to this collection, ultimately generating a comprehensive spatial resource in support of adaptation and mitigation efforts on working lands.

A dynamic modelling approach for estimating critical loads of nitrogen based on plant community changes under a changing climate.

PubMed

Belyazid, Salim; Kurz, Dani; Braun, Sabine; Sverdrup, Harald; Rihm, Beat; Hettelingh, Jean-Paul

2011-03-01

A dynamic model of forest ecosystems was used to investigate the effects of climate change, atmospheric deposition and harvest intensity on 48 forest sites in Sweden (n = 16) and Switzerland (n = 32). The model was used to investigate the feasibility of deriving critical loads for nitrogen (N) deposition based on changes in plant community composition. The simulations show that climate and atmospheric deposition have comparably important effects on N mobilization in the soil, as climate triggers the release of organically bound nitrogen stored in the soil during the elevated deposition period. Climate has the most important effect on plant community composition, underlining the fact that this cannot be ignored in future simulations of vegetation dynamics. Harvest intensity has comparatively little effect on the plant community in the long term, while it may be detrimental in the short term following cutting. This study shows: that critical loads of N deposition can be estimated using the plant community as an indicator; that future climatic changes must be taken into account; and that the definition of the reference deposition is critical for the outcome of this estimate. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The public health impacts of climate change in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia.

PubMed

Kendrovski, Vladimir; Spasenovska, Margarita; Menne, Bettina

2014-06-05

Projected climatic changes for the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia for the period 2025-2100 will be most intense in the warmest period of the year with more frequent and more intense heat-waves, droughts and flood events compared with the period 1961-1990. The country has examined their vulnerabilities to climate change and many public health impacts have been projected. A variety of qualitative and quantitative methodologies were used in the assessment: literature reviews, interviews, focus groups, time series and regression analysis, damage and adaptation cost estimation, and scenario-based assessment. Policies and interventions to minimize the risks and development of long-term adaptation strategies have been explored. The generation of a robust evidence base and the development of stakeholder engagement have been used to support the development of an adaptation strategy and to promote adaptive capacity by improving the resilience of public health systems to climate change. Climate change adaptation has been established as a priority within existing national policy instruments. The lessons learnt from the process are applicable to countries considering how best to improve adaptive capacity and resilience of health systems to climate variability and its associated impacts.

Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections.

PubMed

Junk, J; Ulber, B; Vidal, S; Eickermann, M

2015-11-01

Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

Assessing climate change impacts on the rape stem weevil, Ceutorhynchus napi Gyll., based on bias- and non-bias-corrected regional climate change projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junk, J.; Ulber, B.; Vidal, S.; Eickermann, M.

2015-11-01

Agricultural production is directly affected by projected increases in air temperature and changes in precipitation. A multi-model ensemble of regional climate change projections indicated shifts towards higher air temperatures and changing precipitation patterns during the summer and winter seasons up to the year 2100 for the region of Goettingen (Lower Saxony, Germany). A second major controlling factor of the agricultural production is the infestation level by pests. Based on long-term field surveys and meteorological observations, a calibration of an existing model describing the migration of the pest insect Ceutorhynchus napi was possible. To assess the impacts of climate on pests under projected changing environmental conditions, we combined the results of regional climate models with the phenological model to describe the crop invasion of this species. In order to reduce systematic differences between the output of the regional climate models and observational data sets, two different bias correction methods were applied: a linear correction for air temperature and a quantile mapping approach for precipitation. Only the results derived from the bias-corrected output of the regional climate models showed satisfying results. An earlier onset, as well as a prolongation of the possible time window for the immigration of Ceutorhynchus napi, was projected by the majority of the ensemble members.

Story telling and social action: engaging young people to act on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cordero, E.

2014-12-01

The realization that well designed graphs and clearly worded summaries were not enough to spur the public and policy makers towards an appropriate understanding of our planet encouraged me to search for other ways to share climate stories with the general public. After co-authoring a popular book on food and climate change and giving many talks to the general public, it struck me that young people were largely missing from the dialogue, and little meaningful progress was being made to design effective solutions. I then started working with faculty and students from the Film and Animation Departments at San Jose State University to develop stories about climate change that would be engaging to younger audiences. The result was the Green Ninja Project, based around the Green Ninja, a superhero who focuses on solutions to climate change using humor and silliness to soften what can be a somewhat challenging topic. The Project includes a) The Green Ninja Show - a series of YouTube videos (over 1,000,000 views) highlighting actions young people can take to reduce climate change, b) The Green Ninja Film Festival where students tell their own climate solutions stories, and c) a collection of educational resources that help teachers bring climate science topics into their classroom using hands-on activities. A key component to this work is promoting social action experiences, so that young people can understand how their actions can make a difference. Based on these experiences, I will provide my own reflections on the challenges and opportunities of communicating climate change with young people.

Biodiversity of Terrestrial Vegetation during Past Warm Periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davies-Barnard, T.; Valdes, P. J.; Ridgwell, A.

2016-12-01

Previous modelling studies of vegetation have generally used a small number of plant functional types to understand how the terrestrial biosphere responds to climate changes. Whilst being useful for understanding first order climate feedbacks, this climate-envelope approach makes a lot of assumptions about past vegetation being very similar to modern. A trait-based method has the advantage for paleo modelling in that there are substantially less assumptions made. In a novel use of the trait-based dynamic vegetation model JeDi, forced with output from climate model HadCM3, we explore past biodiversity and vegetation carbon changes. We use JeDi to model an optimal 2000 combinations of fifteen different traits to enable assessment of the overall level of biodiversity as well as individual growth strategies. We assess the vegetation shifts and biodiversity changes in past greenhouse periods to better understand the impact on the terrestrial biosphere. This work provides original insights into the response of vegetation and terrestrial carbon to climate and hydrological changes in high carbon dioxide climates over time, including during the Late Permian and Cretaceous. We evaluate how the location of biodiversity hotspots and species richness in past greenhouse climates is different to the present day.

Impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff in Weihe Basin based on Budyko hypothesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, H. S.; Liu, D. F.; Chang, J. X.; Zhang, H. X.; Huang, Q.

2017-08-01

The Weihe River Basin (WRB) is the largest tributary of the Yellow River and plays an irreplaceable role in the Shaanxi-Gansu-Ningxia area. In recent years, owing to the human activities and climate change, the runoff of the WRB has reduced, wherefore, it is necessary to analyze the impact on runoff quantitatively. By using the data of Huaxian and Zhuangtou stations, we can respectively calculate the changes in runoff for climate change and human activities via Budyko hypothesis. The trend of runoff, precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration and the break points are examined by Mann-Kendall test (M-K method), cumulative anomaly method and ordered cluster analysis. The results show that the break points of runoff series in WRB are 1970 and 1989, so that the runoff series can be divided into the baseline period and the changed period. Based on the data of potential evapotranspiration and Budyko formula, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff are 41% and 59% in 1970-1989. From 1990 to 2010, the contribution rates of climate change and human activities are 37% and 63%, respectively.

Assessment of bias correction under transient climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

2015-04-01

Calibration of climate simulations is necessary since large systematic discrepancies are generally found between the model climate and the observed climate. Recent studies have cast doubt upon the common assumption of the bias being stationary when the climate changes. This led to the development of new methods, mostly based on linear sensitivity of the biases as a function of time or forcing (Kharin et al. 2012). However, recent studies uncovered more fundamental problems using both low-order systems (Vannitsem 2011) and climate models, showing that the biases may display complicated non-linear variations under climate change. This last analysis focused on biases derived from the equilibrium climate sensitivity, thereby ignoring the effect of the transient climate sensitivity. Based on the linear response theory, a general method of bias correction is therefore proposed that can be applied on any climate forcing scenario. The validity of the method is addressed using twin experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM (Goosse et al., 2010). We evaluate to what extent the bias change is sensitive to the structure (frequency) of the applied forcing (here greenhouse gases) and whether the linear response theory is valid for global and/or local variables. To answer these question we perform large-ensemble simulations using different 300-year scenarios of forced carbon-dioxide concentrations. Reality and simulations are assumed to differ by a model error emulated as a parametric error in the wind drag or in the radiative scheme. References [1] H. Goosse et al., 2010: Description of the Earth system model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM version 1.2, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 603-633. [2] S. Vannitsem, 2011: Bias correction and post-processing under climate change, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 18, 911-924. [3] V.V. Kharin, G. J. Boer, W. J. Merryfield, J. F. Scinocca, and W.-S. Lee, 2012: Statistical adjustment of decadal predictions in a changing climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19705.

Climate Change Impact Assessment of Hydro-Climate in Southern Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the coastal region in the south of Peninsular Malaysia in the 21st century was assessed by means of a regional climate model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution Global Climate Models' future projections covering four emission scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3) datasets were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. The analyses were made in terms of rainfall, air temperature, evapotranporation, and soil water storage.

Show Me the Evidence: How a Unit Challenge Can Support Middle School Teachers and Students in Investigating Climate Change Using Real-World Data and Science Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gochis, E. E.; Tubman, S.; Grazul, K.; Bluth, G.; Huntoon, J. E.

2017-12-01

Michigan Science Teaching and Assessment Reform (Mi-STAR) is developing an NGSS-aligned integrated science middle school curriculum and associated teacher professional learning program that addresses all performance expectations for the 6-8 grade-band. The Mi-STAR instructional model is a unit- and lesson-level model that scaffolds students in using science practices to investigate scientific phenomena and apply engineering principles to address a real-world challenge. Mi-STAR has developed an 8th grade unit on climate change based on the Mi-STAR instructional model and NGSS performance expectations. The unit was developed in collaboration with Michigan teachers, climate scientists, and curriculum developers. The unit puts students in the role of advisers to local officials who need an evidence-based explanation of climate change and recommendations about community-based actions to address it. Students discover puzzling signs of global climate change, ask questions about these signs, and engage in a series of investigations using simulations and real data to develop scientific models for the mechanisms of climate change. Students use their models as the basis for evidence-based arguments about the causes and impacts of climate change and employ engineering practices to propose local actions in their community to address climate change. Dedicated professional learning supports teachers before and during implementation of the unit. Before implementing the unit, all teachers complete an online self-paced "unit primer" during which they assume the role of their students as they are introduced to the unit challenge. During this experience, teachers experience science as a practice by using real data and simulations to develop a model of the causes of climate change, just as their students will later do. During unit implementation, teachers are part of a professional learning community led by a teacher facilitator in their local area or school. This professional learning community serves as a resource both for implementing student-directed pedagogy and for the development of content knowledge. Eight teachers pilot tested the unit with more than 500 students in spring 2017, and teachers who participated in the first professional learning cohort are currently implementing the unit around Michigan.

Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.

PubMed

Bell, Erica J; Turner, Paul; Meinke, Holger; Holbrook, Neil J

2015-01-01

This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change? The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites - based on an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change style of assessment. Consensus statements from stakeholders also suggested concern with health sector adaptation capacity and community resilience, and what community stakeholders defined as 'last straw' climate effects in already stressed communities. Preventative action and community engagement were also seen as important, especially with regard to managing the ways that climate change can multiply socioeconomic and health outcome inequality. Above all, stakeholder responses emphasised the importance of an applied, complexity-oriented understanding of how climate and climate change impacts affect local communities and local services to compromise the overall quality of human health in these communities. Complex community-level assessments about climate change and related health risks and responses can be captured electronically in ways that offer potentially actionable information about priorities for health sector adaptation, as a first step in planning. What is valuable about these community judgements is the creation of shared values and commitments. Future iteration of the IT tool could include decision-support modules to support best practice health sector adaptation scenarios, providing participants with opportunities to develop their know-how about health sector adaptation to climate change. If managed carefully, such tools could work within a balanced portfolio of measures to help reduce the rising health burden from climate change.

Responding to climate change in national forests: a guidebook for developing adaptation options

Treesearch

David L. Peterson; Connie I. Millar; Linda A. Joyce; Michael J. Furniss; Jessica E. Halofsky; Ronald P. Neilson; Toni Lyn Morelli

2011-01-01

This guidebook contains science-based principles, processes, and tools necessary to assist with developing adaptation options for national forest lands. The adaptation process is based on partnerships between local resource managers and scientists who work collaboratively to understand potential climate change effects, identify important resource issues, and develop...

Global Warning: Project-Based Science Inspired by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colaianne, Blake

2015-01-01

Misconceptions about climate change are common, which suggests a need to effectively address the subject in the classroom. This article describes a project-based science activity in which students report on the physical basis, adaptations, and mitigation of this global problem, adapting the framework of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel…

Learning as change: Responding to socio-scientific issues through informal education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, Lauren Brooks

Informal learning is an important venue for educating the general public about complex socio-scientific issues: intersections of scientific understanding and society. My dissertation is a multi-tiered analysis of how informal education, and particularly informal educators, can leverage learning to respond to one particular socio-scientific issue: climate change. Life-long, life-wide, and life-deep learning not only about the science of climate change, but how communities and society as a whole can respond to it in ways that are commensurate with its scale are necessary. In my three-article dissertation, I investigated the changes in practice and learning that informal educators from a natural history museum underwent in the process of implementing a new type of field trip about climate change. This study focused on inquiry-based learning principles taken on by the museum educators, albeit in different ways: learner autonomy, conversation, and deep investigation. My second article, a short literature review, makes the argument that climate change education must have goals beyond simply increasing learners' knowledge of climate science, and proposes three research-based principles for such learning: participation, relevance, and interconnectedness. These principles are argued to promote learning to respond to climate change as well as increased collective efficacy, necessary for responding. Finally, my third article is an in-depth examination of a heterogeneous network of informal educators and environmental professionals who worked together to design and implement a city-wide platform for informal climate change learning. By conceptualizing climate change learning at the level of the learning ecology, educators and learners are able to see how it can be responded to at the community level, and understand how climate change is interconnected with other scientific, natural, and social systems. I briefly discuss a different socio-scientific issue to which these principles can be applied: heritable, human manipulation of other biological entities; in other words, genetic engineering.

Climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, Abigail J.; Myers, Bonnie; Chu, Cindy; Eby, Lisa A.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Kovach, Ryan P.; Krabbenhoft, Trevor J.; Kwak, Thomas J.; Lyons, John; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

2016-01-01

Climate is a critical driver of many fish populations, assemblages, and aquatic communities. However, direct observational studies of climate change impacts on North American inland fishes are rare. In this synthesis, we (1) summarize climate trends that may influence North American inland fish populations and assemblages, (2) compile 31 peer-reviewed studies of documented climate change effects on North American inland fish populations and assemblages, and (3) highlight four case studies representing a variety of observed responses ranging from warmwater systems in the southwestern and southeastern United States to coldwater systems along the Pacific Coast and Canadian Shield. We conclude by identifying key data gaps and research needs to inform adaptive, ecosystem-based approaches to managing North American inland fishes and fisheries in a changing climate.

Impact of Climate Change and Human Intervention on River Flow Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Rajendra; Mittal, Neha; Mishra, Ashok

2017-04-01

Climate change and human interventions like dam construction bring freshwater ecosystem under stress by changing flow regime. It is important to analyse their impact at a regional scale along with changes in the extremes of temperature and precipitation which further modify the flow regime components such as magnitude, timing, frequency, duration, and rate of change of flow. In this study, the Kangsabati river is chosen to analyse the hydrological alterations in its flow regime caused by dam, climate change and their combined impact using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) program based on the Range of Variability Approach (RVA). Results show that flow variability is significantly reduced due to dam construction with high flows getting absorbed and pre-monsoon low flows being augmented by the reservoir. Climate change alone reduces the high peaks whereas a combination of dam and climate change significantly reduces variability by affecting both high and low flows, thereby further disrupting the functioning of riverine ecosystems. Analysis shows that in the Kangsabati basin, influence of dam is greater than that of the climate change, thereby emphasising the significance of direct human intervention. Keywords: Climate change, human impact, flow regime, Kangsabati river, SWAT, IHA, RVA.

Global Priority Conservation Areas in the Face of 21st Century Climate Change

PubMed Central

Li, Junsheng; Lin, Xin; Chen, Anping; Peterson, Townsend; Ma, Keping; Bertzky, Monika; Ciais, Philippe; Kapos, Valerie; Peng, Changhui; Poulter, Benjamin

2013-01-01

In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the “Global 200” ecoregions – a set of priority ecoregions designed to “achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth’s ecosystems” – over the 21st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991–2010 and 2081–2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change. PMID:23359638

Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Easterling, W. E.

2014-12-01

The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

PubMed

King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

2018-05-21

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

Hand in Hand: Public Endorsement of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

PubMed Central

Brügger, Adrian; Morton, Thomas A.; Dessai, Suraje

2015-01-01

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research. PMID:25922938

Measuring the economic impact of climate change on major South African field crops: a Ricardian approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gbetibouo, G. A.; Hassan, R. M.

2005-07-01

This study employed a Ricardian model to measure the impact of climate change on South Africa's field crops and analysed potential future impacts of further changes in the climate. A regression of farm net revenue on climate, soil and other socio-economic variables was conducted to capture farmer-adapted responses to climate variations. The analysis was based on agricultural data for seven field crops (maize, wheat, sorghum, sugarcane, groundnut, sunflower and soybean), climate and edaphic data across 300 districts in South Africa. Results indicate that production of field crops was sensitive to marginal changes in temperature as compared to changes in precipitation. Temperature rise positively affects net revenue whereas the effect of reduction in rainfall is negative. The study also highlights the importance of season and location in dealing with climate change showing that the spatial distribution of climate change impact and consequently needed adaptations will not be uniform across the different agro-ecological regions of South Africa. Results of simulations of climate change scenarios indicate many impacts that would induce (or require) very distinct shifts in farming practices and patterns in different regions. Those include major shifts in crop calendars and growing seasons, switching between crops to the possibility of complete disappearance of some field crops from some region.

"Intelligent Ensemble" Projections of Precipitation and Surface Radiation in Support of Agricultural Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Taylor, Patrick C.; Baker, Noel C.

2015-01-01

Earth's climate is changing and will continue to change into the foreseeable future. Expected changes in the climatological distribution of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation will significantly impact agriculture. Adaptation strategies are, therefore, required to reduce the agricultural impacts of climate change. Climate change projections of precipitation, surface temperature, and surface solar radiation distributions are necessary input for adaption planning studies. These projections are conventionally constructed from an ensemble of climate model simulations (e.g., the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5)) as an equal weighted average, one model one vote. Each climate model, however, represents the array of climate-relevant physical processes with varying degrees of fidelity influencing the projection of individual climate variables differently. Presented here is a new approach, termed the "Intelligent Ensemble, that constructs climate variable projections by weighting each model according to its ability to represent key physical processes, e.g., precipitation probability distribution. This approach provides added value over the equal weighted average method. Physical process metrics applied in the "Intelligent Ensemble" method are created using a combination of NASA and NOAA satellite and surface-based cloud, radiation, temperature, and precipitation data sets. The "Intelligent Ensemble" method is applied to the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 anthropogenic climate forcing simulations within the CMIP5 archive to develop a set of climate change scenarios for precipitation, temperature, and surface solar radiation in each USDA Farm Resource Region for use in climate change adaptation studies.

Habitat-based conservation strategies cannot compensate for climate-change-induced range loss

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wessely, Johannes; Hülber, Karl; Gattringer, Andreas; Kuttner, Michael; Moser, Dietmar; Rabitsch, Wolfgang; Schindler, Stefan; Dullinger, Stefan; Essl, Franz

2017-11-01

Anthropogenic habitat fragmentation represents a major obstacle to species shifting their range in response to climate change. Conservation measures to increase the (meta-)population capacity and permeability of landscapes may help but the effectiveness of such measures in a warming climate has rarely been evaluated. Here, we simulate range dynamics of 51 species from three taxonomic groups (vascular plants, butterflies and grasshoppers) in Central Europe as driven by twenty-first-century climate scenarios and analyse how three habitat-based conservation strategies (establishing corridors, improving the landscape matrix, and protected area management) modify species' projected range size changes. These simulations suggest that the conservation strategies considered are unable to save species from regional extinction. For those persisting, they reduce the magnitude of range loss in lowland but not in alpine species. Protected area management and corridor establishment are more effective than matrix improvement. However, none of the conservation strategies evaluated could fully compensate the negative impact of climate change for vascular plants, butterflies or grasshoppers in central Europe.

Climatic Changes on Tibetan Plateau Based on Ice Core Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, T.

2008-12-01

Climatic changes have been reconstructed for the Tibetan Plateau based on ice core records. The Guliya ice core on the Tibetan Plateau presents climatic changes in the past 100,000 years, thus is comparative with that from Vostok ice core in Antarctica and GISP2 record in Arctic. These three records share an important common feature, i.e., our climate is not stable. It is also evident that the major patterns of climatic changes are similar on the earth. Why does climatic change over the earth follow a same pattern? It might be attributed to solar radiation. We found that the cold periods correspond to low insolation periods, and warm periods to high insolation periods. We found abrupt climatic change in the ice core climatic records, which presented dramatic temperature variation of as much as 10 °C in 50 or 60 years. Our major challenge in the study of both climate and environment is that greenhouse gases such as CO2, CH4 are possibly amplifying global warming, though at what degree remains unclear. One of the ways to understand the role of greenhouse gases is to reconstruct the past greenhouse gases recorded in ice. In 1997, we drilled an ice core from 7100 m a.s.l. in the Himalayas to reconstruct methane record. Based on the record, we found seasonal cycles in methane variation. In particular, the methane concentration is high in summer, suggestiing active methane emission from wet land in summer. Based on the seasonal cycle, we can reconstruct the methane fluctuation history in the past 500 years. The most prominent feature of the methane record in the Himalayan ice core is the abrupt increase since 1850 A.D.. This is closely related to the industrial revolution worldwide. We can also observe sudden decrease in methane concentration during the World War I and World War II. It implies that the industrial revolution has dominated the atmospheric greenhouse gas emission for about 100 years. Besides, the average methane concentration in the Himalayan ice core is higher than that in polar regions, indicating that the low latitude wet land is a major natural source of atmospheric methane.

Lightning-Related Indicators for National Climate Assessment (NCA) Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koshak, W. J.

2017-12-01

With the recent advent of space-based lightning mappers [i.e., the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) on GOES-16, and the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the International Space Station], improved investigations on the inter-relationships between lightning and climate are now possible and can directly support the goals of the National Climate Assessment (NCA) program. Lightning nitrogen oxides (LNOx) affect greenhouse gas concentrations such as ozone that influences changes in climate. Conversely, changes in climate (from any causes) can affect the characteristics of lightning (e.g., frequency, current amplitudes, multiplicity, polarity) that in turn leads to changes in lightning-caused impacts to humans (e.g., fatalities, injuries, crop/property damage, wildfires, airport delays, changes in air quality). This study discusses improvements to, and recent results from, the NASA/MSFC NCA Lightning Analysis Tool (LAT). It includes key findings on the development of different types of lightning flash energy indicators derived from space-based lightning observations, and demonstrates how these indicators can be used to estimate trends in LNOx across the continental US.

Climate change can alter predator-prey dynamics and population viability of prey.

PubMed

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Schaefer, James A; Peers, Michael J L; Ellington, E Hance; Mumma, Matthew A; Rayl, Nathaniel D; Mahoney, Shane P; Murray, Dennis L

2018-01-01

For many organisms, climate change can directly drive population declines, but it is less clear how such variation may influence populations indirectly through modified biotic interactions. For instance, how will climate change alter complex, multi-species relationships that are modulated by climatic variation and that underlie ecosystem-level processes? Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone species in Newfoundland, Canada, provides a useful model for unravelling potential and complex long-term implications of climate change on biotic interactions and population change. We measured cause-specific caribou calf predation (1990-2013) in Newfoundland relative to seasonal weather patterns. We show that black bear (Ursus americanus) predation is facilitated by time-lagged higher summer growing degree days, whereas coyote (Canis latrans) predation increases with current precipitation and winter temperature. Based on future climate forecasts for the region, we illustrate that, through time, coyote predation on caribou calves could become increasingly important, whereas the influence of black bear would remain unchanged. From these predictions, demographic projections for caribou suggest long-term population limitation specifically through indirect effects of climate change on calf predation rates by coyotes. While our work assumes limited impact of climate change on other processes, it illustrates the range of impact that climate change can have on predator-prey interactions. We conclude that future efforts to predict potential effects of climate change on populations and ecosystems should include assessment of both direct and indirect effects, including climate-predator interactions.

On the Hydrologic Adjustment of Climate-Model Projections: The Potential Pitfall of Potential Evapotranspiration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, Paul C.D.; Dunne, Krista A.

2011-01-01

Hydrologic models often are applied to adjust projections of hydroclimatic change that come from climate models. Such adjustment includes climate-bias correction, spatial refinement ("downscaling"), and consideration of the roles of hydrologic processes that were neglected in the climate model. Described herein is a quantitative analysis of the effects of hydrologic adjustment on the projections of runoff change associated with projected twenty-first-century climate change. In a case study including three climate models and 10 river basins in the contiguous United States, the authors find that relative (i.e., fractional or percentage) runoff change computed with hydrologic adjustment more often than not was less positive (or, equivalently, more negative) than what was projected by the climate models. The dominant contributor to this decrease in runoff was a ubiquitous change in runoff (median -11%) caused by the hydrologic model’s apparent amplification of the climate-model-implied growth in potential evapotranspiration. Analysis suggests that the hydrologic model, on the basis of the empirical, temperature-based modified Jensen–Haise formula, calculates a change in potential evapotranspiration that is typically 3 times the change implied by the climate models, which explicitly track surface energy budgets. In comparison with the amplification of potential evapotranspiration, central tendencies of other contributions from hydrologic adjustment (spatial refinement, climate-bias adjustment, and process refinement) were relatively small. The authors’ findings highlight the need for caution when projecting changes in potential evapotranspiration for use in hydrologic models or drought indices to evaluate climate-change impacts on water.

Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenbath, K. L.

2011-12-01

Scientists and educators strive to improve climate literacy throughout society, whether through communication of research findings or though classroom teaching. Despite these efforts, climate change misconceptions exist in students and the general public. When educators present evidence that contradicts misconceptions, students may begin to struggle with their inaccurate ideas and perhaps transition towards a scientifically-accepted understanding. These transitions, called conceptual change, can occur in college climate change courses. The purpose of this presentation is to describe college students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change and the way these ideas change throughout a climate change course. This presentation is based on five case studies of undergraduate students in a large lecture-hall course dedicated to climate change. Each case study student represents a different level of climate change understanding at the beginning of the semester. These case studies and subsequent cross-case analyses result from a qualitative research study using interviews, field notes, artifact analysis, coding and categorization, and research memos. The cases show shifts in all five students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change. During the first month of class, the three lower achieving students expressed uncertainty about the increase in average global temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change. At the end of the semester, these students explained that warming from climate change is natural, yet the rate of this warming is increasing due to human activities. Two of the lower achieving students constructed definitions of climate change different than the definition used by the professor in the classroom. These students solidified the idea that the term "climate change" describes the change that results from natural forcings only, while the term "global warming" describes change in the climate that results from human-caused forcings. Their constructed definition removes human-causes from association with the word "climate change", which may influence their climate change understanding. Of the two higher achieving students, one emphasized anthropogenic climate change at the beginning of the semester, but later focused on natural climate change during his interviews. The other high achieving student included tangential environmental topics in her descriptions of climate change throughout the entire semester, thus conflating climate change's definition. These alternative definitions of climate change indicate that the learners constructed hybrid conceptions in order to incorporate class content with their prior ideas. These hybrid conceptions indicate that the students' understandings lie somewhere between misconceptions and conceptual change. Since the students demonstrated these hybrid conceptions at the end of class, perhaps more time is needed for the students to process the information. These case studies identify the gaps the professor should address for conceptual change to fully occur.

A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models, and a knowledge-based scoring system

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2016-01-01

Context. No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates--hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns. Objective. A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model--DISTRIB II, a species colonization model--SHIFT, and...

Climate change and forest trees in the Pacific Northwest: a vulnerability assessment and recommended actions for national forests

Treesearch

A. Bower; W. Devine; C. Aubry

2017-01-01

Climate change presents new challenges to land managers. At stake is our ability to make thoughtful, science-based decisions and to add climate change considerations to our project and management plans. We also must prioritize among the opportunities that can be included in adaptation strategies because funding and time are limited, now more than ever. In 2012, we...

U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center Science and Operational Plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Sonya A.; Dalton, Melinda S.

2012-01-01

Climate change challenges many of the basic assumptions routinely used by conservation planners and managers, including the identification and prioritization of areas for conservation based on current environmental conditions and the assumption those conditions could be controlled by management actions. Climate change will likely alter important ecosystem drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain current environmental conditions into the future. Additionally, the potential for future conservation of non-conservation lands may be affected by climate change, which further complicates resource planning. Potential changes to ecosystem drivers, as a result of climate change, highlight the need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change. The U.S. Congress, recognized the potential effects of climate change and authorized the creation of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) in 2008. The directive of the NCCWSC is to produce science that supports resource-management agencies as they anticipate and adapt to the effects of climate change on fish, wildlife, and their habitats. On September 14, 2009, U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010), which expanded the mandate of the NCCWSC to address climate-change-related impacts on all DOI resources. Secretarial Order 3289 "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources," established the foundation of two partner-based conservation science entities: Climate Science Centers (CSC) and their primary partners, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase the understanding of climate change, and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. The NCCWSC is establishing a network of eight DOI CSCs (Alaska, Southeast, Northwest, North Central, Pacific Islands, Southwest, Northeast, and South Central) that will work with a variety of partners and stakeholders to provide resource managers the tools and information they need to help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The Southeast CSC, a federally led research collaboration hosted by North Carolina State University, was established in 2010. The Southeast CSC brings together the expertise of federal and university scientists to address climate-change priority needs of federal, state, non-governmental, and tribal resource managers. This document is the first draft of a science and operational plan for the Southeast CSC. The document describes operational considerations, provides the context for climate-change impacts in the Southeastern United States, and establishes six major science themes the Southeast CSC will address in collaboration with partners. This document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change.

Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances.

PubMed

Givan, Or; Edelist, Dor; Sonin, Oren; Belmaker, Jonathan

2018-01-01

Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20-year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species' life-history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta-analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow-water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold-water-associated species at the trailing "warm" end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold-water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Community-based participatory process--climate change and health adaptation program for Northern First Nations and Inuit in Canada.

PubMed

McClymont Peace, Diane; Myers, Erin

2012-05-08

Health Canada's Program for Climate Change and Health Adaptation in Northern First Nation and Inuit Communities is unique among Canadian federal programs in that it enables community-based participatory research by northern communities. The program was designed to build capacity by funding communities to conduct their own research in cooperation with Aboriginal associations, academics, and governments; that way, communities could develop health-related adaptation plans and communication materials that would help in adaptation decision-making at the community, regional, national and circumpolar levels with respect to human health and a changing environment. Community visits and workshops were held to familiarize northerners with the impacts of climate change on their health, as well as methods to develop research proposals and budgets to meet program requirements. Since the launch of the Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program in 2008, Health Canada has funded 36 community projects across Canada's North that focus on relevant health issues caused by climate change. In addition, the program supported capacity-building workshops for northerners, as well as a Pan-Arctic Results Workshop to bring communities together to showcase the results of their research. Results include: numerous films and photo-voice products that engage youth and elders and are available on the web; community-based ice monitoring, surveillance and communication networks; and information products on land, water and ice safety, drinking water, food security and safety, and traditional medicine. Through these efforts, communities have increased their knowledge and understanding of the health effects related to climate change and have begun to develop local adaptation strategies.

Ensembles-based predictions of climate change impacts on bioclimatic zones in Northeast Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Y.; Jeon, S. W.; Lim, C. H.; Ryu, J.

2017-12-01

Biodiversity is rapidly declining globally and efforts are needed to mitigate this continually increasing loss of species. Clustering of areas with similar habitats can be used to prioritize protected areas and distribute resources for the conservation of species, selection of representative sample areas for research, and evaluation of impacts due to environmental changes. In this study, Northeast Asia (NEA) was classified into 14 bioclimatic zones using statistical techniques, which are correlation analysis and principal component analysis (PCA), and the iterative self-organizing data analysis technique algorithm (ISODATA). Based on these bioclimatic classification, we predicted shift of bioclimatic zones due to climate change. The input variables include the current climatic data (1960-1990) and the future climatic data of the HadGEM2-AO model (RCP 4.5(2050, 2070) and 8.5(2050, 2070)) provided by WorldClim. Using these data, multi-modeling methods including maximum likelihood classification, random forest, and species distribution modelling have been used to project the impact of climate change on the spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones within NEA. The results of various models were compared and analyzed by overlapping each result. As the result, significant changes in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the NEA by 2050s and 2070s. The overall zones moved upward and some zones were predicted to disappear. This analysis provides the basis for understanding potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem. Also, this could be used more effectively to support decision making on climate change adaptation.

Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2016-01-01

Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

Individual contributions of climate and vegetation change to soil moisture trends across multiple spatial scales.

PubMed

Feng, Huihui

2016-09-07

Climate and vegetation change are two dominating factors for soil moisture trend. However, their individual contributions remain unknown due to their complex interaction. Here, I separated their contributions through a trajectory-based method across the global, regional and local scales. Our results demonstrated that climate change accounted for 98.78% and 114.64% of the global drying and wetting trend. Vegetation change exhibited a relatively weak influence (contributing 1.22% and -14.64% of the global drying and wetting) because it occurred in a limited area on land. Regionally, the impact of vegetation change cannot be neglected, which contributed -40.21% of the soil moisture change in the wetting zone. Locally, the contributions strongly correlated to the local environmental characteristics. Vegetation negatively affected soil moisture trends in the dry and sparsely vegetated regions and positively in the wet and densely vegetated regions. I conclude that individual contributions of climate and vegetation change vary at the global, regional and local scales. Climate change dominates the soil moisture trends, while vegetation change acts as a regulator to drying or wetting the soil under the changing climate.

Estimating monetary damages from flooding in the United States under a changing climate

EPA Science Inventory

A national-scale analysis of potential changes in monetary damages from flooding under climate change. The approach uses empirically based statistical relationships between historical precipitation and flood damage records from 18 hydrologic regions of the United States, along w...

Useful and Usable Climate Science: Frameworks for Bridging the Social and Physical domains.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buja, L.

2016-12-01

Society is transforming the Earth's system in unprecedented ways, often with significant variations across space and time. In turn, the impacts of climate change on the human system vary dramatically due to differences in cultural, socioeconomic, institutional, and physical processes at the local level. The Climate Science and Applications Program (CSAP) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder Colorado addresses societal vulnerability, impacts and adaptation to climate change through the development of frameworks and methods for analyzing current and future vulnerability, and integrated analyses of climate impacts and adaptation at local, regional and global scales. CSAP relies heavily on GIS-based scientific data and knowledge systems to bridge social and physical science approaches in its five focus areas: Governance of inter-linked natural and managed resource systems. The role of urban areas in driving emissions of climate change Weather, climate and global human health, GIS-based science data & knowledge systems. Regional Climate Science and Services for Adaptation Advanced methodologies and frameworks for assessing current and future risks to environmental hazards through the integration of physical and social science models, research results, and remote sensing data are presented in the context of recent national and international projects on climate change and food/water security, urban carbon emissions, metropolitan extreme heat and global health. In addition, innovative CSAP international capacity building programs teaching interdisciplinary approaches for using geospatial technologies to integrate multi-scale spatial information of weather, climate change into important sectors such as disaster reduction, agriculture, tourism and society for decision-making are discussed.

Comparing niche- and process-based models to reduce prediction uncertainty in species range shifts under climate change.

PubMed

Morin, Xavier; Thuiller, Wilfried

2009-05-01

Obtaining reliable predictions of species range shifts under climate change is a crucial challenge for ecologists and stakeholders. At the continental scale, niche-based models have been widely used in the last 10 years to predict the potential impacts of climate change on species distributions all over the world, although these models do not include any mechanistic relationships. In contrast, species-specific, process-based predictions remain scarce at the continental scale. This is regrettable because to secure relevant and accurate predictions it is always desirable to compare predictions derived from different kinds of models applied independently to the same set of species and using the same raw data. Here we compare predictions of range shifts under climate change scenarios for 2100 derived from niche-based models with those of a process-based model for 15 North American boreal and temperate tree species. A general pattern emerged from our comparisons: niche-based models tend to predict a stronger level of extinction and a greater proportion of colonization than the process-based model. This result likely arises because niche-based models do not take phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation into account. Nevertheless, as the two kinds of models rely on different assumptions, their complementarity is revealed by common findings. Both modeling approaches highlight a major potential limitation on species tracking their climatic niche because of migration constraints and identify similar zones where species extirpation is likely. Such convergent predictions from models built on very different principles provide a useful way to offset uncertainties at the continental scale. This study shows that the use in concert of both approaches with their own caveats and advantages is crucial to obtain more robust results and that comparisons among models are needed in the near future to gain accuracy regarding predictions of range shifts under climate change.

VALUE - Validating and Integrating Downscaling Methods for Climate Change Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas; Widmann, Martin; Benestad, Rasmus; Kotlarski, Sven; Huth, Radan; Hertig, Elke; Wibig, Joanna; Gutierrez, Jose

2013-04-01

Our understanding of global climate change is mainly based on General Circulation Models (GCMs) with a relatively coarse resolution. Since climate change impacts are mainly experienced on regional scales, high-resolution climate change scenarios need to be derived from GCM simulations by downscaling. Several projects have been carried out over the last years to validate the performance of statistical and dynamical downscaling, yet several aspects have not been systematically addressed: variability on sub-daily, decadal and longer time-scales, extreme events, spatial variability and inter-variable relationships. Different downscaling approaches such as dynamical downscaling, statistical downscaling and bias correction approaches have not been systematically compared. Furthermore, collaboration between different communities, in particular regional climate modellers, statistical downscalers and statisticians has been limited. To address these gaps, the EU Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) action VALUE (www.value-cost.eu) has been brought into life. VALUE is a research network with participants from currently 23 European countries running from 2012 to 2015. Its main aim is to systematically validate and develop downscaling methods for climate change research in order to improve regional climate change scenarios for use in climate impact studies. Inspired by the co-design idea of the international research initiative "future earth", stakeholders of climate change information have been involved in the definition of research questions to be addressed and are actively participating in the network. The key idea of VALUE is to identify the relevant weather and climate characteristics required as input for a wide range of impact models and to define an open framework to systematically validate these characteristics. Based on a range of benchmark data sets, in principle every downscaling method can be validated and compared with competing methods. The results of this exercise will directly provide end users with important information about the uncertainty of regional climate scenarios, and will furthermore provide the basis for further developing downscaling methods. This presentation will provide background information on VALUE and discuss the identified characteristics and the validation framework.

The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Aggestam, Filip; Rammer, Werner; Blennow, Kristina; Wolfslehner, Bernhard

2016-05-01

Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager's sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.

Global Warming Impacts on Heating and Cooling Degree-Days in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petri, Y.; Caldeira, K.

2014-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to significantly alter residential air conditioning and space heating requirements, which account for 41% of U.S. household energy expenditures. The degree-day method can be used for reliable estimation of weather related building energy consumption and costs, as well as outdoor climatic thermal comfort. Here, we use U.S. Climate Normals developed by NOAA based on weather station observations along with Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble simulations. We add the projected change in heating and cooling degree-days based on the climate models to the estimates based on the NOAA U.S. Climate Normals to project future heating and cooling degree-days. We find locations with the lowest and highest combined index of cooling (CDDs) and heating degree-days (HDDs) for the historical period (1981 - 2010) and future period (2080 - 2099) under the Representation Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. Our results indicate that in both time frames and among the lower 48 states, coastal areas in the West and South California will have the smallest degree-day sum (CDD + HDD), and hence from a climatic perspective become the best candidates for residential real estate. The Rocky Mountains region in Wyoming, in addition to northern Minnesota and North Dakota, will have the greatest CDD + HDD. While global warming is projected to reduce the median heating and cooling demand (- 5%) at the end of the century, CDD + HDD will decrease in the North, with an opposite effect in the South. This work could be helpful in deciding where to live in the United States based on present and future thermal comfort, and could also provide a basis for estimates of changes in heating and cooling energy demand.

Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

2014-12-01

China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national agriculture adaptation strategy decisions.

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bouska, Kristen; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Lant, Christopher; Schoof, Justin

2018-01-01

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

Telling the Climate Change Story: Framing and Messaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hassol, S. J.

2011-12-01

Scientists have important roles to play in communicating climate change, yet most scientists are not well versed in important aspects of communication. Scientists can improve their communication by helping to develop and deliver effectively framed messages. Research suggests that effective messages about climate change should include science-based descriptions of the risks posed by human-induced warming as well as information about solutions for a better future. Thus, telling the climate change story effectively involves clearly stating that human-induced climate change is happening now and having impacts on society, while also showing that it is not too late to make a difference for the future. For example, framing and messaging should include the fact that lower emissions pathways lead to less severe climate change and fewer impacts than higher emissions pathways. It also involves communicating that there is much we can do to alter our emissions pathway, and that doing these things has other benefits, for example, for human health and the economy. Scientists telling the climate change story should make the threats tangible and the opportunities clear.

Development of key indicators to quantify the health impacts of climate change on Canadians.

PubMed

Cheng, June J; Berry, Peter

2013-10-01

This study aimed at developing a list of key human health indicators for quantifying the health impacts of climate change in Canada. A literature review was conducted in OVID Medline to identify health morbidity and mortality indicators currently used to quantify climate change impacts. Public health frameworks and other studies of climate change indicators were reviewed to identify criteria with which to evaluate the list of proposed key indicators and a rating scale was developed. Total scores for each indicator were calculated based on the rating scale. A total of 77 health indicators were identified from the literature. After evaluation using the chosen criteria, 8 indicators were identified as the best for use. They include excess daily all-cause mortality due to heat, premature deaths due to air pollution (ozone and particulate matter 2.5), preventable deaths from climate change, disability-adjusted life years lost from climate change, daily all-cause mortality, daily non-accidental mortality, West Nile Disease incidence, and Lyme borreliosis incidence. There is need for further data and research related to health effect quantification in the area of climate change.

Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

2013-12-01

Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the southwest, 2) review of the current state of extreme event climate science, 3) review what information is available about past extreme events in the southwest, 4) report the results of the 2012 workshop on climate change and extreme events, and 5) propose a method for combining this past information with current climate science information to produce estimates of possible future extreme events in sufficient detail to be useful to water resource managers.

Communication and marketing as climate change-intervention assets a public health perspective.

PubMed

Maibach, Edward W; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2008-11-01

The understanding that global climate change represents a profound threat to the health and well-being of human and nonhuman species worldwide is growing. This article examines the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behavior in ways consistent with climate change prevention and adaptation objectives. Specifically, using a framework based on an ecologic model of public health, the paper examines: (1) the potential of communication and marketing interventions to influence population behaviors of concern, including support for appropriate public policies; (2) potential target audiences for such programs; and (3) the attributes of effective climate change messages. Communication and marketing interventions appear to have considerable potential to promote important population behavior change objectives, but there is an urgent need for additional translational research to effectively harvest this potential to combat climate change.

Reservoir operations under climate change: Storage capacity options to mitigate risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehsani, Nima; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Fekete, Balázs M.; Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

2017-12-01

Observed changes in precipitation patterns, rising surface temperature, increases in frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, widespread melting of ice, and reduced snow cover are some of the documented hydrologic changes associated with global climate change. Climate change is therefore expected to affect the water supply-demand balance in the Northeast United States and challenge existing water management strategies. The hydrological implications of future climate will affect the design capacity and operating characteristics of dams. The vulnerability of water resources systems to floods and droughts will increase, and the trade-offs between reservoir releases to maintain flood control storage, drought resilience, ecological flow, human water demand, and energy production should be reconsidered. We used a Neural Networks based General Reservoir Operation Scheme to estimate the implications of climate change for dams on a regional scale. This dynamic daily reservoir module automatically adapts to changes in climate and re-adjusts the operation of dams based on water storage level, timing, and magnitude of incoming flows. Our findings suggest that the importance of dams in providing water security in the region will increase. We create an indicator of the Effective Degree of Regulation (EDR) by dams on water resources and show that it is expected to increase, particularly during drier months of year, simply as a consequence of projected climate change. The results also indicate that increasing the size and number of dams, in addition to modifying their operations, may become necessary to offset the vulnerabilities of water resources systems to future climate uncertainties. This is the case even without considering the likely increase in future water demand, especially in the most densely populated regions of the Northeast.

Hydrological changes impacts on annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, F.; Caracciolo, D.; Feng, X.

2017-12-01

Runoff is expected to be modified in the next future by climate change as well as by land use change. Given its importance for water supply and ecosystem functioning, it is therefore imperative to develop adaptation strategies and new policies for regional water resources management and planning. To do so, the identification and attribution of natural flow regime shifts as a result of climate and land use changes are of crucial importance. In this context, the Budyko's curve has begun to be widely adopted to separate the contributions of climate and land use changes to the variation of runoff over long-term periods by using the multi-year averages of hydrological variables. In this study, a framework based on Fu's equation is proposed and applied to separate the impacts of climate and land use changes on the future annual runoff distribution in seasonally dry basins, such as those in Mediterranean climates. In particular, this framework improves a recently developed method to obtain annual runoff probability density function (pdf) in seasonally dry basins from annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration statistics, and from knowledge of the Fu's equation parameter ω. The effect of climate change has been taken into account through the variation of the first order statistics of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, consistent with general circulation models' outputs, while the Fu's equation parameter ω has been changed to represent land use change. The effects of the two factors of change (i.e., climate and land use) on the annual runoff pdf have been first independently and then jointly analyzed, by reconstructing the annual runoff pdfs for the current period and, based on likely scenarios, within the next 100 years. The results show that, for large basins, climate change is the dominant driver of the decline in annual runoff, while land use change is a secondary but important factor.

Taming the Beast: Policy-based Solutions for Addressing Corporate Interference in Climate Policy Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grifo, F.

2012-12-01

Inappropriate corporate influence in science-based policy has been a persistent problem in the United States across multiple issue areas and through many administrations. Interference in climate change policy has been especially pervasive in recent years, with tremendous levels of corporate resources being utilized to spread misinformation on climate science and reduce and postpone regulatory action. Much of the influence exerted by these forces is concealed from public view. Better corporate disclosure laws would reveal who is influencing climate policy to policy makers, investors, and the public. Greater transparency in the political activity of corporate actors is needed to shed light on who is responsible for the misinformation campaigns clouding the discussion around climate change in the United States. Such transparency will empower diverse stakeholders to hold corporations accountable. Specific federal policy reforms can be made in order to guide the nation down a path of greater corporate accountability in climate change policy efforts.

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared a report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using Massachusetts Bays’ salt marsh ecosystem as a demonstration. The aim is to synthesize place-based information on the potential implications of climate change for key ecosystem processes in each estuary, in a form that will enable managers to undertake management adaptation planning.

USGCRP assessments: Meeting the challenges of climate and global change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dickinson, T.; Kuperberg, J. M.

2016-12-01

The United States Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) is a confederation of the research arms of 13 Federal departments and agencies. Its mission is to build a knowledge base that informs human responses to climate and global change through coordinated and integrated Federal programs of research, education, communication, and decision support. USGCRP has supported several initiatives to promote better understanding of climate change impacts on health, support responses, and build on the progress of the 2014 National Climate Assessment. Most recently, USGCRP released a new report, "The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health: A Scientific Assessment". This presentation will provide an overview of USGCRP, highlight the importance of assessments, and introduce ways in which assessment findings and underlying data can be translated into critical tools to build resilience.

Climate change induces demographic resistance to disease in novel coral assemblages

PubMed Central

Yakob, Laith; Mumby, Peter J.

2011-01-01

Climate change is reshaping biological communities and has already generated novel ecosystems. The functioning of novel ecosystems could depart markedly from that of existing systems and therefore obscure the impacts of climate change. We illustrate this possibility for coral reefs, which are at the forefront of climatic stress. Disease has been a principal cause of reef degradation and is expected to worsen with increased future thermal stress. However, using a field-tested epizoological model, we show that high population turnover within novel ecosystems enhances coral resistance to epizootics. Thus, disease could become a less important driver of change in the future. We emphasize the need to move away from projections based on historic trends toward predictions that account for novel behavior of ecosystems under climate change. PMID:21245326

Global warming's five Germanys: A typology of Germans' views on climate change and patterns of media use and information.

PubMed

Metag, Julia; Füchslin, Tobias; Schäfer, Mike S

2017-05-01

People's attitudes toward climate change differ, and these differences may correspond to distinct patterns of media use and information seeking. However, studies extending analyses of attitude types and their specific media diets to countries beyond the United States are lacking. We use a secondary analysis of survey data from Germany to identify attitudes toward climate change among the German public and specify those segments of the population based on their media use and information seeking. Similar to the Global Warming's Six Americas study, we find distinct attitudes (Global Warming's Five Germanys) that differ in climate change-related perceptions as well as in media use and communicative behavior. These findings can help tailor communication campaigns regarding climate change to specific audiences.

Farmers' perceptions of and adaptation strategies to climate change and their determinants: the case of Punjab province, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abid, M.; Scheffran, J.; Schneider, U. A.; Ashfaq, M.

2015-05-01

Climate change is a global environmental threat to all economic sectors, particularly the agricultural sector. Pakistan is one of the countries negatively affected by climate change due to its high exposure to extreme events and low adaptive capacity. In Pakistan, farmers are the primary stakeholders in agriculture and are more at risk due to climate vulnerability. Based on farm household data from 450 households collected from three districts in three agroecological zones in the Punjab province of Pakistan, this study examines how farmers perceive climate change and how they adapt their farming in response to perceived changes in climate. The results demonstrate that awareness of climate change is widespread throughout the area, and farm households make adjustments to adapt their agriculture in response to climatic change. Overall 58% of the farm households adapted their farming to climate change. Changing crop varieties, changing planting dates, planting of shade trees and changing fertilizers were the main adaptation methods implemented by farm households in the study area. The results from the binary logistic model reveal that education, farm experience, household size, land area, tenancy status, ownership of a tube well, access to market information, information on weather forecasting and agricultural extension services all influence farmers' choices of adaptation measures. The results also indicate that adaptation to climate change is constrained by several factors such as lack of information, lack of money, resource constraints and shortage of irrigation water in the study area. Findings of the study suggest the need for greater investment in farmer education and improved institutional setup for climate change adaptation to improve farmers' wellbeing.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on projected future fire regimes in the western United States.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Wimberly, Michael C

2016-01-15

We asked two research questions: (1) What are the relative effects of climate change and climate-driven vegetation shifts on different components of future fire regimes? (2) How does incorporating climate-driven vegetation change into future fire regime projections alter the results compared to projections based only on direct climate effects? We used the western United States (US) as study area to answer these questions. Future (2071-2100) fire regimes were projected using statistical models to predict spatial patterns of occurrence, size and spread for large fires (>400 ha) and a simulation experiment was conducted to compare the direct climatic effects and the indirect effects of climate-driven vegetation change on fire regimes. Results showed that vegetation change amplified climate-driven increases in fire frequency and size and had a larger overall effect on future total burned area in the western US than direct climate effects. Vegetation shifts, which were highly sensitive to precipitation pattern changes, were also a strong determinant of the future spatial pattern of burn rates and had different effects on fire in currently forested and grass/shrub areas. Our results showed that climate-driven vegetation change can exert strong localized effects on fire occurrence and size, which in turn drive regional changes in fire regimes. The effects of vegetation change for projections of the geographic patterns of future fire regimes may be at least as important as the direct effects of climate change, emphasizing that accounting for changing vegetation patterns in models of future climate-fire relationships is necessary to provide accurate projections at continental to global scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Anthropogenic range contractions bias species climate change forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faurby, Søren; Araújo, Miguel B.

2018-03-01

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change most often rely on ecological niche models, in which characterizations of climate suitability are highly contingent on the species range data used. If ranges are far from equilibrium under current environmental conditions, for instance owing to local extinctions in otherwise suitable areas, modelled environmental suitability can be truncated, leading to biased estimates of the effects of climate change. Here we examine the impact of such biases on estimated risks from climate change by comparing models of the distribution of North American mammals based on current ranges with ranges accounting for historical information on species ranges. We find that estimated future diversity, almost everywhere, except in coastal Alaska, is drastically underestimated unless the full historical distribution of the species is included in the models. Consequently forecasts of climate change impacts on biodiversity for many clades are unlikely to be reliable without acknowledging anthropogenic influences on contemporary ranges.

Socio-economic vulnerability to climate change in the central mountainous region of eastern Mexico.

PubMed

Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Bonifacio-Bautista, Martín; Barradas, Víctor L

2016-03-01

Climate change effects are expected to be more severe for some segments of society than others. In Mexico, climate variability associated with climate change has important socio-economic and environmental impacts. From the central mountainous region of eastern Veracruz, Mexico, we analyzed data of total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature from 26 meteorological stations (1922-2008) and from General Circulation Models. We developed climate change scenarios based on the observed trends with projections to 2025, 2050, 2075, and 2100, finding considerable local climate changes with reductions in precipitation of over 700 mm and increases in temperature of ~9°C for the year 2100. Deforested areas located at windward were considered more vulnerable, representing potential risk for natural environments, local communities, and the main crops cultivated (sugarcane, coffee, and corn). Socio-economic vulnerability is exacerbated in areas where temperature increases and precipitation decreases.

Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip;

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Biodiversity ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of species. Given projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer fish and wildlife populations against climate change is emerging. Such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on air temperatures and associated microclimatic changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of species and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted research within an adaptive management framework.In this workshop, we will showcase the latest science on climate refugia and participants will interact through small group discussions, relevant examples, and facilitated dialogue to i

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.;

Enhancing seasonal climate prediction capacity for the Pacific countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Jones, D.; Hendon, H.; Charles, A.; Cottrill, A.; Lim, E.-P.; Langford, S.; de Wit, R.; Shelton, K.

2012-04-01

Seasonal and inter-annual climate variability is a major factor in determining the vulnerability of many Pacific Island Countries to climate change and there is need to improve weekly to seasonal range climate prediction capabilities beyond what is currently available from statistical models. In the seasonal climate prediction project under the Australian Government's Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP), we describe a comprehensive project to strengthen the climate prediction capacities in National Meteorological Services in 14 Pacific Island Countries and East Timor. The intent is particularly to reduce the vulnerability of current services to a changing climate, and improve the overall level of information available assist with managing climate variability. Statistical models cannot account for aspects of climate variability and change that are not represented in the historical record. In contrast, dynamical physics-based models implicitly include the effects of a changing climate whatever its character or cause and can predict outcomes not seen previously. The transition from a statistical to a dynamical prediction system provides more valuable and applicable climate information to a wide range of climate sensitive sectors throughout the countries of the Pacific region. In this project, we have developed seasonal climate outlooks which are based upon the current dynamical model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia) seasonal forecast system. At present, meteorological services of the Pacific Island Countries largely employ statistical models for seasonal outlooks. Outcomes of the PASAP project enhanced capabilities of the Pacific Island Countries in seasonal prediction providing National Meteorological Services with an additional tool to analyse meteorological variables such as sea surface temperatures, air temperature, pressure and rainfall using POAMA outputs and prepare more accurate seasonal climate outlooks.

Health risks of climate change in the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie L

2017-09-01

Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. Changes in extreme weather events, undernutrition and the spread of infectious diseases are projected to increase the number of deaths due to climate change by 2030, indicating the need to strengthen activities for adaptation and mitigation. With support from the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia and others, countries have started to include climate change as a key consideration in their national public health policies. Further efforts are needed to develop evidence-based responses; garner the necessary support from partner ministries; and access funding for activities related to health and climate change. National action plans for climate change generally identify health as one of their priorities; however, limited information is available on implementation processes, including which ministries and departments would be involved; the time frame; stakeholder responsibilities; and how the projects would be financed. While progress is being made, efforts are needed to increase the capacity of health systems to manage the health risks of climate change in South-East Asia, if population health is to be protected and strengthened while addressing changing weather and climate patterns. Enhancing the resilience of health systems is key to ensuring a sustainable path to improved planetary and population health.

Characterizing the "Time of Emergence" of Air Quality Climate Penalties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothenberg, D. A.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Solomon, S.; Selin, N. E.

2017-12-01

By driving not only local changes in temperature, but also precipitation and regional-scale changes in seasonal circulation patterns, climate change can directly and indirectly influence changes in air quality and its extremes. These changes - often referred to as "climate penalties" - can have important implications for human health, which is often targeted when assessing the potential co-benefits of climate policy. But because climate penalties are driven by slow, spatially-varying, temporal changes in the climate system, their emergence in the real world should also have a spatio-temporal component following regional variability in background air quality. In this work, we attempt to estimate the spatially-varying "time of emergence" of climate penalty signals by using an ensemble modeling framework based on the MIT Integrated Global System Model (MIT IGSM). With this framework we assess three climate policy scenarios assuming three different underlying climate sensitivities, and conduct a 5-member ensemble for each case to capture internal variability within the model. These simulations are used to drive offline chemical transport modeling (using CAM-Chem and GEOS-Chem). In these simulations, we find that the air quality response to climate change can vary dramatically across different regions of the globe. To analyze these regionally-varying climate signals, we employ a hierarchical clustering technique to identify regions with similar seasonal patterns of air quality change. Our simulations suggest that the earliest emergence of ozone climate penalties would occur in Southern Europe (by 2035), should the world neglect climate change and rely on a "business-as-usual" emissions policy. However, even modest climate policy dramatically pushes back the time of emergence of these penalties - to beyond 2100 - across most of the globe. The emergence of climate-forced changes in PM2.5 are much more difficult to detect, partially owing to the large role that changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of precipitation play in limiting the accumulation and duration of particulate pollution episodes.

Climate change impact assessment on hydrology of a small watershed using semi-distributed model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandey, Brij Kishor; Gosain, A. K.; Paul, George; Khare, Deepak

2017-07-01

This study is an attempt to quantify the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Armur watershed in Godavari river basin, India. A GIS-based semi-distributed hydrological model, soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) has been employed to estimate the water balance components on the basis of unique combinations of slope, soil and land cover classes for the base line (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios (2071-2100). Sensitivity analysis of the model has been performed to identify the most critical parameters of the watershed. Average monthly calibration (1987-1994) and validation (1995-2000) have been performed using the observed discharge data. Coefficient of determination (R2), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (ENS) and root mean square error (RMSE) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibrated SWAT setup has been used to evaluate the changes in water balance components of future projection over the study area. HadRM3, a regional climatic data, have been used as input of the hydrological model for climate change impact studies. In results, it was found that changes in average annual temperature (+3.25 °C), average annual rainfall (+28 %), evapotranspiration (28 %) and water yield (49 %) increased for GHG scenarios with respect to the base line scenario.

The Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, Climate Services, and Meeting the National Climate Change Adaptation Challenge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overpeck, J. T.; Udall, B.; Miles, E.; Dow, K.; Anderson, C.; Cayan, D.; Dettinger, M.; Hartmann, H.; Jones, J.; Mote, P.; Ray, A.; Shafer, M.; White, D.

2008-12-01

The NOAA-led RISA Program has grown steadily to nine regions and a focus that includes both natural climate variability and human-driven climate change. The RISAs are, at their core, university-based and heavily invested in partnerships, particularly with stakeholders, NOAA, and other federal agencies. RISA research, assessment and partnerships have led to new operational climate services within NOAA and other agencies, and have become important foundations in the development of local, state and regional climate change adaptation initiatives. The RISA experience indicates that a national climate service is needed, and must include: (1) services prioritized based on stakeholder needs; (2) sustained, ongoing regional interactions with users, (3) a commitment to improve climate literacy; (4) support for assessment as an ongoing, iterative process; (5) full recognition that stakeholder decisions are seldom made using climate information alone; (6) strong interagency partnership; (7) national implementation and regional in focus; (8) capability spanning local, state, tribal, regional, national and international space scales, and weeks to millennia time scales; and (9) institutional design and scientific support flexible enough to assure the effort is nimble enough to respond to rapidly-changing stakeholder needs. The RISA experience also highlights the central role that universities must play in national climate change adaptation programs. Universities have a tradition of trusted regional stakeholder partnerships, as well as the interdisciplinary expertise - including social science, ecosystem science, law, and economics - required to meet stakeholder climate-related needs; project workforce can also shift rapidly in universities. Universities have a proven ability to build and sustain interagency partnerships. Universities excel in most forms of education and training. And universities often have proven entrepreneurship, technology transfer and private sector partnership capability.

Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2017-12-01

In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to support impact assessment in low warming scenarios.

Attribution of hydrological change in Heihe River Basin to climate and land use change in the past three decades

PubMed Central

Luo, Kaisheng; Tao, Fulu; Moiwo, Juana P.; Xiao, Dengpan

2016-01-01

The contributions of climate and land use change (LUCC) to hydrological change in Heihe River Basin (HRB), Northwest China were quantified using detailed climatic, land use and hydrological data, along with the process-based SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrological model. The results showed that for the 1980s, the changes in the basin hydrological change were due more to LUCC (74.5%) than to climate change (21.3%). While LUCC accounted for 60.7% of the changes in the basin hydrological change in the 1990s, climate change explained 57.3% of that change. For the 2000s, climate change contributed 57.7% to hydrological change in the HRB and LUCC contributed to the remaining 42.0%. Spatially, climate had the largest effect on the hydrology in the upstream region of HRB, contributing 55.8%, 61.0% and 92.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. LUCC had the largest effect on the hydrology in the middle-stream region of HRB, contributing 92.3%, 79.4% and 92.8% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively. Interestingly, the contribution of LUCC to hydrological change in the upstream, middle-stream and downstream regions and the entire HRB declined continually over the past 30 years. This was the complete reverse (a sharp increase) of the contribution of climate change to hydrological change in HRB. PMID:27647454

Investigating the Capacity of Hydrological Models to Project Impacts of Climate Change in the Context of Water Allocation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Velez, Carlos; Maroy, Edith; Rocabado, Ivan; Pereira, Fernando

2017-04-01

To analyse the impacts of climate changes, hydrological models are used to project the hydrology responds under future conditions that normally differ from those for which they were calibrated. The challenge is to assess the validity of the projected effects when there is not data to validate it. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change was proposed by Refsgaard et al., (2014). The authors recommend the use of the differential-split sample test (DSST) in order to build confidence in the model projections. The method follow three steps: 1. A small number of sub-periods are selected according to one climate characteristics, 2. The calibration - validation test is applied on these periods, 3. The validation performances are compered to evaluate whether they vary significantly when climatic characteristics differ between calibration and validation. DSST rely on the existing records of climate and hydrological variables; and performances are estimated based on indicators of error between observed and simulated variables. Other authors suggest that, since climate models are not able to reproduce single events but rather statistical properties describing the climate, this should be reflected when testing hydrological models. Thus, performance criteria such as RMSE should be replaced by for instance flow duration curves or other distribution functions. Using this type of performance criteria, Van Steenbergen and Willems, (2012) proposed a method to test the validity of hydrological models in a climate changing context. The method is based on the evaluation of peak flow increases due to different levels of rainfall increases. In contrast to DSST, this method use the projected climate variability and it is especially useful to compare different modelling tools. In the framework of a water allocation project for the region of Flanders (Belgium) we calibrated three hydrological models: NAM, PDM and VHM; for 67 gauged sub-catchments with approx. 40 years of records. This paper investigates the capacity of the three hydrological models to project the impacts of climate change scenarios. It is proposed a general testing framework which combine the use of the existing information through an adapted form of DSST with the approach proposed by Van Steenbergen and Willems, (2012) adapted to assess statistical properties of flows useful in the context of water allocation. To assess the model we use robustness criteria based on a Log Nash-Sutcliffe, BIAS on cummulative volumes and relative changes based on Q50/Q90 estimated from the duration curve. The three conceptual rainfall-runoff models yielded different results per sub-catchments. A relation was found between robustness criteria and changes in mean rainfall and changes in mean potential evapotranspiration. Biases are greatly affected by changes in precipitation, especially when the climate scenarios involve changes in precipitation volume beyond the range used for calibration. Using the combine approach we were able to classify the modelling tools per sub-catchments and create an ensemble of best models to project the impacts of climate variability for the catchments of 10 main rivers in Flanders. Thus, managers could understand better the usability of the modelling tools and the credibility of its outputs for water allocation applications. References Refsgaard, J.C., Madsen, H., Andréassian, V., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Davidson, T.A., Drews, M., Hamilton, D.P., Jeppesen, E., Kjellström, E., Olesen, J.E., Sonnenborg, T.O., Trolle, D., Willems, P., Christensen, J.H., 2014. A framework for testing the ability of models to project climate change and its impacts. Clim. Change. Van Steenbergen, N., Willems, P., 2012. Method for testing the accuracy of rainfall - runoff models in predicting peak flow changes due to rainfall changes , in a climate changing context. J. Hydrol. 415, 425-434.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change. PMID:24823495

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Combined influence of multiple climatic factors on the incidence of bacterial foodborne diseases.

PubMed

Park, Myoung Su; Park, Ki Hwan; Bahk, Gyung Jin

2018-01-01

Information regarding the relationship between the incidence of foodborne diseases (FBD) and climatic factors is useful in designing preventive strategies for FBD based on anticipated future climate change. To better predict the effect of climate change on foodborne pathogens, the present study investigated the combined influence of multiple climatic factors on bacterial FBD incidence in South Korea. During 2011-2015, the relationships between 8 climatic factors and the incidences of 13 bacterial FBD, were determined based on inpatient stays, on a monthly basis using the Pearson correlation analyses, multicollinearity tests, principal component analysis (PCA), and the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling. Of the 8 climatic variables, the combination of temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, insolation, and cloudiness was significantly associated with salmonellosis (P<0.01), vibriosis (P<0.05), and enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 infection (P<0.01). The combined effects of snowfall, wind speed, duration of sunshine, and cloudiness were not significant for these 3 FBD. Other FBD, including campylobacteriosis, were not significantly associated with any combination of climatic factors. These findings indicate that the relationships between multiple climatic factors and bacterial FBD incidence can be valuable for the development of prediction models for future patterns of diseases in response to changes in climate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The NextData Project: a national Italian system for the retrieval, storage, access and diffusion of environmental and climate data from mountain and marine areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Provenzale, Antonello

2013-04-01

Mountains are sentinels of climate and environmental change and many marine regions provide information on past climate variations. The Project of Interest NextData will favour the implementation of measurement networks in remote mountain and marine areas and will develop efficient web portals to access meteoclimatic and atmospheric composition data, past climate information from ice and sediment cores, biodiversity and ecosystem data, measurements of the hydrological cycle, marine reanalyses and climate projections at global and regional scale. New data on the present and past climatic variability and future climate projections in the Alps, the Himalaya-Karakoram, the Mediterranean region and other areas of interest will be obtained and made available. The pilot studies conducted during the project will allow for obtaining new estimates on the availability of water resources and on the effects of atmospheric aerosols on high-altitude environments, as well as new assessments of the impact of climate change on ecosystems, health and societies in mountain regions. The system of archives and the scientific results produced by the NextData project will provide a unique data base for research, for environmental management and for the estimate of climate change impacts, allowing for the development of knowledge-based environmental and climate adaptation policies.

Influence of climate drivers on colonization and extinction dynamics of wetland-dependent species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Andrew M.; Gould, William R.; Hossack, Blake R.; Sepulveda, Adam; Thoma, David P.; Patla, Debra A.; Daley, Rob; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.

2016-01-01

Freshwater wetlands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, changes in temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration (i.e., climate drivers) are likely to alter flooding regimes of wetlands and affect the vital rates, abundance, and distributions of wetland-dependent species. Amphibians may be among the most climate-sensitive wetland-dependent groups, as many species rely on shallow or intermittently flooded wetland habitats for breeding. Here, we integrated multiple years of high-resolution gridded climate and amphibian monitoring data from Grand Teton and Yellowstone National Parks to explicitly model how variations in climate drivers and habitat conditions affect the occurrence and breeding dynamics (i.e., annual extinction and colonization rates) of amphibians. Our results showed that models incorporating climate drivers outperformed models of amphibian breeding dynamics that were exclusively habitat based. Moreover, climate-driven variation in extinction rates, but not colonization rates, disproportionately influenced amphibian occupancy in monitored wetlands. Long-term monitoring from national parks coupled with high-resolution climate data sets will be crucial to describing population dynamics and characterizing the sensitivity of amphibians and other wetland-dependent species to climate change. Further, long-term monitoring of wetlands in national parks will help reduce uncertainty surrounding wetland resources and strengthen opportunities to make informed, science-based decisions that have far-reaching benefits.

Continent-wide risk assessment for the establishment of nonindigenous species in Antarctica

PubMed Central

Chown, Steven L.; Huiskes, Ad H. L.; Gremmen, Niek J. M.; Lee, Jennifer E.; Terauds, Aleks; Crosbie, Kim; Frenot, Yves; Hughes, Kevin A.; Imura, Satoshi; Kiefer, Kate; Lebouvier, Marc; Raymond, Ben; Tsujimoto, Megumu; Ware, Chris; Van de Vijver, Bart; Bergstrom, Dana Michelle

2012-01-01

Invasive alien species are among the primary causes of biodiversity change globally, with the risks thereof broadly understood for most regions of the world. They are similarly thought to be among the most significant conservation threats to Antarctica, especially as climate change proceeds in the region. However, no comprehensive, continent-wide evaluation of the risks to Antarctica posed by such species has been undertaken. Here we do so by sampling, identifying, and mapping the vascular plant propagules carried by all categories of visitors to Antarctica during the International Polar Year's first season (2007–2008) and assessing propagule establishment likelihood based on their identity and origins and on spatial variation in Antarctica's climate. For an evaluation of the situation in 2100, we use modeled climates based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Scenario A1B [Nakićenović N, Swart R, eds (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK)]. Visitors carrying seeds average 9.5 seeds per person, although as vectors, scientists carry greater propagule loads than tourists. Annual tourist numbers (∼33,054) are higher than those of scientists (∼7,085), thus tempering these differences in propagule load. Alien species establishment is currently most likely for the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Recent founder populations of several alien species in this area corroborate these findings. With climate change, risks will grow in the Antarctic Peninsula, Ross Sea, and East Antarctic coastal regions. Our evidence-based assessment demonstrates which parts of Antarctica are at growing risk from alien species that may become invasive and provides the means to mitigate this threat now and into the future as the continent's climate changes. PMID:22393003

Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Cecil, L. Dewayne; Horton, Radley M.; Gordon, Roman; McCollum, Raymond (Brown, Douglas); Brown, Douglas; Killough, Brian; Goldberg, Richard; Greeley, Adam P.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

2011-01-01

We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the important uncertainties behind the selection of climate change metrics and their performance against more complex process-based crop model simulations, revealing a danger in relying only on long-term mean quantities for crop impact assessment.

Measuring the burden of disease due to climate change and developing a forecast model in South Korea.

PubMed

Yoon, S-J; Oh, I-H; Seo, H-Y; Kim, E-J

2014-08-01

Climate change influences human health in various ways, and quantitative assessments of the effect of climate change on health at national level are becoming essential for environmental health management. This study quantified the burden of disease attributable to climate change in Korea using disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and projected how this would change over time. Diseases related to climate change in Korea were selected, and meteorological data for each risk factor of climate change were collected. Mortality was calculated, and a database of incidence and prevalence was established. After measuring the burden of each disease, the total burden of disease related to climate change was assessed by multiplying population-attributable fractions. Finally, an estimation model for the burden of disease was built based on Korean climate data. The total burden of disease related to climate change in Korea was 6.85 DALY/1000 population in 2008. Cerebrovascular diseases induced by heat waves accounted for 72.1% of the total burden of disease (hypertensive disease 1.82 DALY/1000 population, ischaemic heart disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population, cerebrovascular disease 1.56 DALY/1000 population). According to the estimation model, the total burden of disease will be 11.48 DALY/1000 population in 2100, which is twice the total burden of disease in 2008. This study quantified the burden of disease caused by climate change in Korea, and provides valuable information for determining the priorities of environmental health policy in East Asian countries with similar climates. Copyright © 2014 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change adaptation and mitigation options a guide for natural resource managers in southern forest ecosystems

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Kier D. Klepzig

2014-01-01

The rapid pace of climate change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems present a pressing need for better scientific understanding and the development of new science-management partnerships. Understanding the effects of stressors and disturbances (including climatic variability), and developing and testing science-based management options to deal...

Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate

Treesearch

William R. L. Anderegg; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Rosie A. Fisher; Craig D. Allen; Juliann Aukema; Barbara Bentz; Sharon Hood; Jeremy W. Lichstein; Alison K. Macalady; Nate McDowell; Yude Pan; Kenneth Raffa; Anna Sala; John D. Shaw; Nathan L. Stephenson; Christina Tague; Melanie Zeppel

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for...

Silvicultural decisionmaking in an uncertain climate future: a workshop-based exploration of considerations, strategies, and approaches

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Christopher W. Swanston; Linda M. Nagel; Christopher R. Webster; Brian J. Palik; Mark J. Twery; John B. Bradford; Linda R. Parker; Andrea T. Hille; Sheela M. Johnson

2011-01-01

Land managers across the country face the immense challenge of developing and applying appropriate management strategies as forests respond to climate change. We hosted a workshop to explore silvicultural strategies for addressing the uncertainties surrounding climate change and forest response in the northeastern and north-central United States. Outcomes of this...

Global topics and novel approaches in the study of air pollution, climate change and forest ecosystems

Treesearch

P. Sicard; A. Augustaitis; S. Belyazid; C. Calfapietra; A. De Marco; Mark E. Fenn; Andrzej Bytnerowicz; Nancy Grulke; S. He; R. Matyssek; Y. Serengil; G. Wieser; E. Paoletti

2016-01-01

Research directions from the 27th conference for Specialists in Air Pollution and Climate Change Effects on Forest Ecosystems (2015) reflect knowledge advancements about (i) Mechanistic bases of tree responses to multiple climate and pollution stressors, in particular the interaction of ozone (O3) with nitrogen (N) deposition and drought; (ii)...

Managing United States public lands in response to climate change: a view from the ground up.

PubMed

Ellenwood, Mikaela S; Dilling, Lisa; Milford, Jana B

2012-05-01

Federal land managers are faced with the task of balancing multiple uses and goals when making decisions about land use and the activities that occur on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on-the-ground decision making within the framework of multiple use objectives. We conducted a case study of a federal land management agency field office, the San Juan Public Lands Center in Durango, CO, U.S.A., to understand from their perspective how decisions are currently made, and how climate change and carbon management are being factored into decision making. We evaluated three major management sectors in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing. While land managers are aware of climate change and eager to understand more about how it might affect land resources, the incorporation of climate change considerations into everyday decision making is currently quite limited. Climate change is therefore on the radar screen, but remains a lower priority than other issues. To assist the office in making decisions that are based on sound scientific information, further research is needed into how management activities influence carbon storage and resilience of the landscape under climate change.

The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx.

PubMed

Row, Jeffrey R; Wilson, Paul J; Gomez, Celine; Koen, Erin L; Bowman, Jeff; Thornton, Daniel; Murray, Dennis L

2014-07-01

Anthropogenically driven climatic change is expected to reshape global patterns of species distribution and abundance. Given recent links between genetic variation and environmental patterns, climate change may similarly impact genetic population structure, but we lack information on the spatial and mechanistic underpinnings of genetic-climate associations. Here, we show that current genetic variability of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is strongly correlated with a winter climate gradient (i.e. increasing snow depth and winter precipitation from west-to-east) across the Pacific-North American (PNO) to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic systems. This relationship was stronger than isolation by distance and not explained by landscape variables or changes in abundance. Thus, these patterns suggest that individuals restricted dispersal across the climate boundary, likely in the absence of changes in habitat quality. We propose habitat imprinting on snow conditions as one possible explanation for this unusual phenomenon. Coupling historical climate data with future projections, we also found increasingly diverging snow conditions between the two climate systems. Based on genetic simulations using projected climate data (2041-2070), we predicted that this divergence could lead to a threefold increase in genetic differentiation, potentially leading to isolated east-west populations of lynx in North America. Our results imply that subtle genetic structure can be governed by current climate and that substantive genetic differentiation and related ecological divergence may arise from changing climate patterns. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

Is There Any Evidence for Rapid, Genetically-Based, Climatic Niche Expansion in the Invasive Common Ragweed?

PubMed

Gallien, Laure; Thuiller, Wilfried; Fort, Noémie; Boleda, Marti; Alberto, Florian J; Rioux, Delphine; Lainé, Juliette; Lavergne, Sébastien

2016-01-01

Climatic niche shifts have been documented in a number of invasive species by comparing the native and adventive climatic ranges in which they occur. However, these shifts likely represent changes in the realized climatic niches of invasive species, and may not necessarily be driven by genetic changes in climatic affinities. Until now the role of rapid niche evolution in the spread of invasive species remains a challenging issue with conflicting results. Here, we document a likely genetically-based climatic niche expansion of an annual plant invader, the common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a highly allergenic invasive species causing substantial public health issues. To do so, we looked for recent evolutionary change at the upward migration front of its adventive range in the French Alps. Based on species climatic niche models estimated at both global and regional scales we stratified our sampling design to adequately capture the species niche, and localized populations suspected of niche expansion. Using a combination of species niche modeling, landscape genetics models and common garden measurements, we then related the species genetic structure and its phenotypic architecture across the climatic niche. Our results strongly suggest that the common ragweed is rapidly adapting to local climatic conditions at its invasion front and that it currently expands its niche toward colder and formerly unsuitable climates in the French Alps (i.e. in sites where niche models would not predict its occurrence). Such results, showing that species climatic niches can evolve on very short time scales, have important implications for predictive models of biological invasions that do not account for evolutionary processes.

U.S. Forest Service Leads Climate Change Adaptation in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2014-12-01

Effective climate change engagement on public lands is characterized by (1) an enduring science-management partnership, (2) involvement of key stakeholders, (3) consideration of broad landscapes with multiple landowners, (4) science-based, peer-reviewed assessments of sensitivity of natural resources to climate change, (5) adaptation strategies and tactics developed by resource managers, (6) leadership and a workforce motivated to implement climate-smart practices in resource planning and project management. Using this approach, the U.S. Forest Service, in partnership with other organizations, has developed climate change vulnerability assessments and adaptation plans for diverse ecosystems and multiple resources in national forests and other lands in the western United States, although implementation (step 6) has been slow in some cases. Hundreds of meetings, strategies, plans, and panels have focused on climate change adaptation over the past decade, but only direct engagement between scientists and resource managers (less research, less planning, more action) has resulted in substantive outcomes and increased organizational capacity for climate-smart management.

Model-based evidence for persistent species zonation shifts in the southern Rocky Mountains under a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A.; Shuman, J. K.; Shugart, H. H., Jr.; Dwire, K. A.; Fornwalt, P.; Sibold, J.; Negrón, J. F.

2016-12-01

Forests in the Rocky Mountains are a crucial part of the North American carbon budget, but increases in disturbances such as insect outbreaks and fire, in conjunction with climate change, threaten their vitality. Mean annual temperatures in the western United States have increased by 2°C since 1950 and the higher elevations are warming faster than the rest of the landscape. It is predicted that this warming trend will continue, and that by the end of this century, nearly 50% of the western US landscape will have climate profiles with no current analog within that region. Individual tree-based modeling allows various climate change scenarios and their effects on forest dynamics to be tested. We use an updated individual-based gap model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME) at a subalpine site in the southern Rocky Mountains. UVAFME has been quantitatively and qualitatively validated in the southern Rocky Mountains, and results show that UVAFME-output on size structure, biomass, and species composition compares reasonably to inventory data and descriptions of vegetation zonation and successional dynamics for the region. We perform a climate sensitivity test in which temperature is first increased linearly by 2°C over 100 years, stabilized for 200 years, cooled back to present climate values over 100 years, and again stabilized for 200 years. This test is conducted to determine what effect elevated temperatures may have on vegetation zonation, and how persistent the changes may be if the climate is brought back to its current state. Results show that elevated temperatures within the southern Rocky Mountains may lead to decreases in biomass and changes in species composition as species migrate upslope. These changes are also likely to be fairly persistent for at least one- to two-hundred years. The results from this study suggest that UVAFME and other individual-based gap models can be used to inform forest management and climate mitigation strategies for this vitally important region.

Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change.

PubMed

Tao, Fulu; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Hayashi, Yousay; Lin, Erda

2003-06-01

The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.

Macroclimatic change expected to transform coastal wetland ecosystems this century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gabler, Christopher A.; Osland, Michael J.; Grace, James B.; Stagg, Camille L.; Day, Richard H.; Hartley, Stephen B.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; From, Andrew; McCoy, Meagan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.

2017-01-01

Coastal wetlands, existing at the interface between land and sea, are highly vulnerable to climate change. Macroclimate (for example, temperature and precipitation regimes) greatly influences coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. However, research on climate change impacts in coastal wetlands has concentrated primarily on sea-level rise and largely ignored macroclimatic drivers, despite their power to transform plant community structure and modify ecosystem goods and services. Here, we model wetland plant community structure based on macroclimate using field data collected across broad temperature and precipitation gradients along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. Our analyses quantify strongly nonlinear temperature thresholds regulating the potential for marsh-to-mangrove conversion. We also identify precipitation thresholds for dominance by various functional groups, including succulent plants and unvegetated mudflats. Macroclimate-driven shifts in foundation plant species abundance will have large effects on certain ecosystem goods and services. Based on current and projected climatic conditions, we project that transformative ecological changes are probable throughout the region this century, even under conservative climate scenarios. Coastal wetland ecosystems are functionally similar worldwide, so changes in this region are indicative of potential future changes in climatically similar regions globally.

Means and extremes: building variability into community-level climate change experiments.

PubMed

Thompson, Ross M; Beardall, John; Beringer, Jason; Grace, Mike; Sardina, Paula

2013-06-01

Experimental studies assessing climatic effects on ecological communities have typically applied static warming treatments. Although these studies have been informative, they have usually failed to incorporate either current or predicted future, patterns of variability. Future climates are likely to include extreme events which have greater impacts on ecological systems than changes in means alone. Here, we review the studies which have used experiments to assess impacts of temperature on marine, freshwater and terrestrial communities, and classify them into a set of 'generations' based on how they incorporate variability. The majority of studies have failed to incorporate extreme events. In terrestrial ecosystems in particular, experimental treatments have reduced temperature variability, when most climate models predict increased variability. Marine studies have tended to not concentrate on changes in variability, likely in part because the thermal mass of oceans will moderate variation. In freshwaters, climate change experiments have a much shorter history than in the other ecosystems, and have tended to take a relatively simple approach. We propose a new 'generation' of climate change experiments using down-scaled climate models which incorporate predicted changes in climatic variability, and describe a process for generating data which can be applied as experimental climate change treatments. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change for Application to Security Risk Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulledge, J. M.

2011-12-01

The science of climate change has convincingly demonstrated that human activities, including the release of greenhouse gases, land-surface changes, particle emissions, and redistribution of water, are changing global and regional climates. Consequently, key institutions are now concerned about the potential social impacts of climate change. For example, the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report from the U.S. Department of Defense states that "climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked." Meanwhile, insured losses from climate and weather-related natural disasters have risen dramatically over the past thirty years. Although these losses stem largely from socioeconomic trends, insurers are concerned that climate change could exacerbate this trend and render certain types of climate risk non-diversifiable. Meanwhile, the climate science community-broadly defined as physical, biological, and social scientists focused on some aspect of climate change-remains largely focused scholarly activities that are valued in the academy but not especially useful to decision makers. On the other hand, climate scientists who engage in policy discussions have generally permitted vested interests who support or oppose climate policies to frame the discussion of climate science within the policy arena. Such discussions focus on whether scientific uncertainties are sufficiently resolved to justify policy and the vested interests overstate or understate key uncertainties to support their own agendas. Consequently, the scientific community has become absorbed defending scientific findings to the near exclusion of developing novel tools to aid in risk-based decision-making. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established expressly for the purpose of informing governments, has largely been engaged in attempts to reduce unavoidable uncertainties rather than helping the world's governments define a science-based risk-management framework for climate security. The IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report concluded that "Responding to climate change involves an iterative risk management process that includes both adaptation and mitigation and takes into account climate change damages, co-benefits, sustainability, equity and attitudes to risk." In risk management, key uncertainties guide action aimed at reducing risk and cannot be ignored or used to justify inaction. Security policies such as arms control and counter-terrorism demonstrate that high-impact outcomes matter to decision makers even if they are likely to be rare events. In spite of this fact, the long tail on the probability distribution of climate sensitivity was largely ignored by the climate science community until recently and its implications for decision making are still not receiving adequate attention. Informing risk management requires scientists to shift from a singular aversion to type I statistical error (i.e. false positive) to a balanced presentation of both type I error and type II error (i.e. false negative) when the latter may have serious consequences. Examples from national security, extreme weather, and economics illustrate these concepts.

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk case study: a framework for assessing climate change risks to forest carbon stocks

Treesearch

Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke

2012-01-01

Forest ecosystems have the ability to reduce the effects of climate change through the sequestration of carbon (C) (Pan et al. 2011) as well as contribute to net emissions through disturbance events such as wildfires and widespread tree mortality (Kurz et al. 2008). A conceptual framework for assessing climate-change risks to forest ecosystem C stocks facilitates...

Eye tracking and climate change: How is climate literacy information processed?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, C. C.; McNeal, K. S.

2011-12-01

The population of the Southeastern United States is perceived to be resistant to information regarding global climate change. The Climate Literacy Partnership in the Southeast (CLiPSE) project was formed to provide a resource for climate science information. As part of this project, we are evaluating the way that education materials influence the interpretation of climate change related information. At Mississippi State University, a study is being conducted examining how individuals from the Southeastern United States process climate change information and whether or not the interaction with such information impacts the interpretation of subsequent climate change related information. By observing the patterns both before and after an educational intervention, we are able to evaluate the effectiveness of the climate change information on an individual's interpretation of related information. Participants in this study view figures describing various types of climate change related information (CO2 emissions, sea levels, etc.) while their eye movements are tracked to determine a baseline for the way that they process this type of graphical data. Specifically, we are examining time spent viewing and number of fixations on critical portions of the figures prior to exposure to an educational document on climate change. Following the baseline period, we provide participants with portions of a computerized version of Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences that the participants read at their own pace while their eye movements are monitored. Participants are told that they will be given a test on the material after reading the resource. After reading the excerpt, participants are presented with a new set of climate change related figures to interpret (with eye tracking) along with a series of questions regarding information contained in the resource. We plan to evaluate changes that occur in the way that climate change related information is processed based on reading a commonly provided climate change resource. The expectation is that participants will process the figures differently following reading the pamphlet. In addition, we will evaluate which aspects of the resource tend to best correlate with the changes in figure processing.

Climate Change Resilience Planning at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; Johnson, A.

2015-12-01

The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) is developing a site sustainability plan for the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina in accordance with Executive Order 13693, which charges each DOE agency with "identifying and addressing projected impacts of climate change" and "calculating the potential cost and risk to mission associated with agency operations". The plan will comprise i) projections of climate change, ii) surveys of site managers to estimate the effects of climate change on site operations, and iii) a determination of adaptive actions. Climate change projections for SRS are obtained from multiple sources, including an online repository of downscaled global climate model (GCM) simulations of future climate and downscaled GCM simulations produced at SRNL. Taken together, we have projected data for temperature, precipitation, humidity, and wind - all variables with a strong influence on site operations. SRNL is working to engage site facility managers and facilitate a "bottom up" approach to climate change resilience planning, where the needs and priorities of stakeholders are addressed throughout the process. We make use of the Vulnerability Assessment Scoring Tool, an Excel-based program designed to accept as input various climate scenarios ('exposure'), the susceptibility of assets to climate change ('sensitivity'), and the ability of these assets to cope with climate change ('adaptive capacity'). These are combined to produce a series of scores that highlight vulnerabilities. Working with site managers, we have selected the most important assets, estimated their expected response to climate change, and prepared a report highlighting the most endangered facilities. Primary risks include increased energy consumption, decreased water availability, increased forest fire danger, natural resource degradation, and compromised outdoor worker safety in a warmer and more humid climate. Results of this study will aid in driving future management decisions and promoting sustainable practices at SRS.

Climate change : observations on federal efforts to adapt to a changing climate

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-25

Based on preliminary observations from GAOs ongoing adaptation work for the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, certain federal, state, local, and international government authorities are beginning to consider and implement...

Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

2013-01-01

Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

Improving the forecast for biodiversity under climate change.

PubMed

Urban, M C; Bocedi, G; Hendry, A P; Mihoub, J-B; Pe'er, G; Singer, A; Bridle, J R; Crozier, L G; De Meester, L; Godsoe, W; Gonzalez, A; Hellmann, J J; Holt, R D; Huth, A; Johst, K; Krug, C B; Leadley, P W; Palmer, S C F; Pantel, J H; Schmitz, A; Zollner, P A; Travis, J M J

2016-09-09

New biological models are incorporating the realistic processes underlying biological responses to climate change and other human-caused disturbances. However, these more realistic models require detailed information, which is lacking for most species on Earth. Current monitoring efforts mainly document changes in biodiversity, rather than collecting the mechanistic data needed to predict future changes. We describe and prioritize the biological information needed to inform more realistic projections of species' responses to climate change. We also highlight how trait-based approaches and adaptive modeling can leverage sparse data to make broader predictions. We outline a global effort to collect the data necessary to better understand, anticipate, and reduce the damaging effects of climate change on biodiversity. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate, Water and Energy in the Nordic Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snorrason, A.; Jonsdottir, J. F.

2003-04-01

In light of the recent IPCC Climate Change Assessment and recent progress made in meteorological and hydrological modelling, the directors of the Nordic hydrological institutes (CHIN) initiated a research project "Climate, Water and Energy" (CWE) with funding from the Nordic Energy Research and the Nordic Council of Ministers focusing on climatic impact assessment in the energy sector. Climatic variability and change affect the hydrological systems, which in turn affect the energy sector, this will increase the risk associated with the development and use of water resources in the Nordic countries. Within the CWE project four thematic groups work on this issue of climatic change and how changes in precipitation and temperature will have direct influences on runoff. A primary aim of the CWE climate group is to derive a common scenario or a "best-guess" estimate of climate change in northern Europe and Greenland, based on recent regional climate change experiments and representing the change from 1990 to 2050 under the IPCC SRES B2 emission scenario. A data set, along with the most important information for using the scenario is available at the project web site. The glacier group has chosen 8 glaciers from Greenland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden for an analysis of the response of glaciers to climate changes. Mass balance and dynamical changes, corresponding to the common scenario for climate changes, will be modelled and effects on glacier hydrology will be estimated. The long time series group has reported on the status of time series analysis in the Nordic countries. The group will select and quality control time series of stream flow to be included in the Nordic component of the database FRIEND. Also the group will collect information on time series for other variables and these series will be systematically analysed with respect to trend and other long-term changes. The hydrological modelling group has reported on "Climate change impacts on water resources in the Nordic countries - State of the art and discussion of principles". The group will compare different hydrological models and discuss uncertainties in models and climate scenarios, while production of new results based on the composite scenario from the CWE-climate group depends on other projects. The product of the project will be an in-depth analysis of the present status of research and know-how in the sphere of climatic and hydrological research in the Nordic countries. It will be a synthesis and integration of present research with focus on the needs of the energy sector. It will also identify and prioritise key future research areas that are of benefit to the energy sector.

Expert judgement and uncertainty quantification for climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oppenheimer, Michael; Little, Christopher M.; Cooke, Roger M.

2016-05-01

Expert judgement is an unavoidable element of the process-based numerical models used for climate change projections, and the statistical approaches used to characterize uncertainty across model ensembles. Here, we highlight the need for formalized approaches to unifying numerical modelling with expert judgement in order to facilitate characterization of uncertainty in a reproducible, consistent and transparent fashion. As an example, we use probabilistic inversion, a well-established technique used in many other applications outside of climate change, to fuse two recent analyses of twenty-first century Antarctic ice loss. Probabilistic inversion is but one of many possible approaches to formalizing the role of expert judgement, and the Antarctic ice sheet is only one possible climate-related application. We recommend indicators or signposts that characterize successful science-based uncertainty quantification.

The effects of land use change and precipitation change on direct runoff in Wei River watershed, China.

PubMed

Dong, Leihua; Xiong, Lihua; Lall, Upmanu; Wang, Jiwu

2015-01-01

The principles and degrees to which land use change and climate change affect direct runoff generation are distinctive. In this paper, based on the MODIS data of land use in 1992 and 2003, the impacts of land use and climate change are explored using the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) method under two defined scenarios. In the first scenario, the precipitation is assumed to be constant, and thus the consequence of land use change could be evaluated. In the second scenario, the condition of land use is assumed to be constant, so the influence only induced by climate change could be assessed. Combining the conclusions of two scenarios, the effects of land use and climate change on direct runoff volume can be separated. At last, it is concluded: for the study basin, the land use types which have the greatest effect on direct runoff generation are agricultural land and water body. For the big sub basins, the effect of land use change is generally larger than that of climate change; for middle and small sub basins, most of them suffer more from land use change than from climate change.

The Effects of Climate Change on Cardiac Health.

PubMed

De Blois, Jonathan; Kjellstrom, Tord; Agewall, Stefan; Ezekowitz, Justin A; Armstrong, Paul W; Atar, Dan

2015-01-01

The earth's climate is changing and increasing ambient heat levels are emerging in large areas of the world. An important cause of this change is the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. Climate changes have a variety of negative effects on health, including cardiac health. People with pre-existing medical conditions such as cardiovascular disease (including heart failure), people carrying out physically demanding work and the elderly are particularly vulnerable. This review evaluates the evidence base for the cardiac health consequences of climate conditions, with particular reference to increasing heat exposure, and it also explores the potential further implications. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

An Interface between Law and Science: The Climate Change Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Grandbois, M.; Kaniaha, S.

2012-04-01

Law and Science are jointly building the international climate change regime. Up to date, international law and climate science have been unable to take into consideration both regional law and Pacific climate science in this process. Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region) significant efforts were dedicated to improve understanding of climate in the Pacific through the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). The first comprehensive PCCSP scientific report on the South Pacific climate has been published in 2011. Under the PASAP, web-based information tools for seasonal climate prediction have been developed and now outputs from dynamical climate model are used in 15 countries of the North-West and South Pacific for enhanced prediction of rainfall, air and sea surface temperatures which reduces countries' vulnerability to climate variability in the context of a changing climate. On a regional scale, the Meteorological and Geohazards Department of Vanuatu is preparing a full report on Climate change impacts on the country. These scientific reports and tools could lead to a better understanding of climate change in the South Pacific and to a better understanding of climate change science, for lawyers and policy-makers. The International climate change regime develops itself according to science findings, and at the pace of the four scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In return, Law is a contributing factor to climate change, a structural data in the development and perception of environmental issues and it exerts an influence on Science. Because of the dependency of law on science, the PCCSP and PASAP outcomes will also stimulate and orientate developments in law of the Pacific Island countries, as well as it could increase countries' contributions to the future of international environmental law. Vanuatu is pioneering this process in the Pacific and could make a leading contribution to the development of Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties, according to the Bali action Plan and to participate actively in the negotiations of a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. In studying and transposing the national climate change report, Vanuatu would also sensibly improve its own environmental laws in response to climate change. By building a bridge between law and science in the Pacific, we are training scientists to climate change law, and training lawyers and policy-makers to climate change science; increasing the collaborative process and the cooperation between scientists and lawyers, in drafting national environmental laws and in negotiating international climate change agreements; and enhancing the contribution of small vulnerable islands to the development of the international climate change regime, as it regards to law and to science. Training for climate scientists and for lawyers and policy-makers on climate change science and law will be provided through the USP Course on climate change international law and climate change science - the first course on this type in the Pacific.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-02-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The 'evolving metacommunity' framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats.

A crucial step toward realism: responses to climate change from an evolving metacommunity perspective

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C; De Meester, Luc; Vellend, Mark; Stoks, Robby; Vanoverbeke, Joost

2012-01-01

We need to understand joint ecological and evolutionary responses to climate change to predict future threats to biological diversity. The ‘evolving metacommunity’ framework emphasizes that interactions between ecological and evolutionary mechanisms at both local and regional scales will drive community dynamics during climate change. Theory suggests that ecological and evolutionary dynamics often interact to produce outcomes different from those predicted based on either mechanism alone. We highlight two of these dynamics: (i) species interactions prevent adaptation of nonresident species to new niches and (ii) resident species adapt to changing climates and thereby prevent colonization by nonresident species. The rate of environmental change, level of genetic variation, source-sink structure, and dispersal rates mediate between these potential outcomes. Future models should evaluate multiple species, species interactions other than competition, and multiple traits. Future experiments should manipulate factors such as genetic variation and dispersal to determine their joint effects on responses to climate change. Currently, we know much more about how climates will change across the globe than about how species will respond to these changes despite the profound effects these changes will have on global biological diversity. Integrating evolving metacommunity perspectives into climate change biology should produce more accurate predictions about future changes to species distributions and extinction threats. PMID:25568038

Uncertainties in Integrated Climate Change Impact Assessments by Sub-setting GCMs Based on Annual as well as Crop Growing Period under Rice Based Farming System of Indo-Gangetic Plains of India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillai, S. N.; Singh, H.; Panwar, A. S.; Meena, M. S.; Singh, S. V.; Singh, B.; Paudel, G. P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Ruane, A. C.; McDermid, S.; Boote, K. J.; Porter, C.; Valdivia, R. O.

2016-12-01

Integrated assessment of climate change impact on agricultural productivity is a challenge to the scientific community due to uncertainties of input data, particularly the climate, soil, crop calibration and socio-economic dataset. However, the uncertainty due to selection of GCMs is the major source due to complex underlying processes involved in initial as well as the boundary conditions dealt in solving the air-sea interactions. Under Agricultural Modeling Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), the Indo-Gangetic Plains Regional Research Team investigated the uncertainties caused due to selection of GCMs through sub-setting based on annual as well as crop-growth period of rice-wheat systems in AgMIP Integrated Assessment methodology. The AgMIP Phase II protocols were used to study the linking of climate-crop-economic models for two study sites Meerut and Karnal to analyse the sensitivity of current production systems to climate change. Climate Change Projections were made using 29 CMIP5 GCMs under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5 during mid-century period (2040-2069). Two crop models (APSIM & DSSAT) were used. TOA-MD economic model was used for integrated assessment. Based on RAPs (Representative Agricultural Pathways), some of the parameters, which are not possible to get through modeling, derived from literature and interactions with stakeholders incorporated into the TOA-MD model for integrated assessment.

Climate change adaptation in regulated water utilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Harou, J. J.; Characklis, G. W.; Ricalde, I.

2017-12-01

Concern about climate change impacts on water supply systems has grown in recent years. However, there are still few examples of pro-active interventions (e.g. infrastructure investment or policy changes) meant to address plausible future changes. Deep uncertainty associated with climate impacts, future demands, and regulatory constraints might explain why utility planning in a range of contexts doesn't explicitly consider climate change scenarios and potential adaptive responses. Given the importance of water supplies for economic development and the cost and longevity of many water infrastructure investments, large urban water supply systems could suffer from lack of pro-active climate change adaptation. Water utilities need to balance the potential for high regret stranded assets on the one side, with insufficient supplies leading to potentially severe socio-economic, political and environmental failures on the other, and need to deal with a range of interests and constraints. This work presents initial findings from a project looking at how cities in Chile, the US and the UK are developing regulatory frameworks that incorporate utility planning under uncertainty. Considering for example the city of Santiago, Chile, recent studies have shown that although high scarcity cost scenarios are plausible, pre-emptive investment to guard from possible water supply failures is still remote and not accommodated by current planning practice. A first goal of the project is to compare and contrast regulatory approaches to utility risks considering climate change adaptation measures. Subsequently we plan to develop and propose a custom approach for the city of Santiago based on lessons learned from other contexts. The methodological approach combines institutional assessment of water supply regulatory frameworks with simulation-based decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Here we present initial work comparing the regulatory frameworks in Chile, UK and USA evaluating their ability to incorporate uncertain climate and other changes into long-term infrastructure investment planning. The potential for regulatory and financial adaptive measures is explored in addition to a discussion on evaluating their appropriateness via various modelling-based intervention decision-making approaches.

Integrating Climate Change Scenarios and Co-developed Policy Scenarios to Inform Coastal Adaptation: Results from a Tillamook County, Oregon Knowledge to Action Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipiec, E.; Ruggiero, P.; Serafin, K.; Bolte, J.; Mills, A.; Corcoran, P.; Stevenson, J.; Lach, D.

2014-12-01

Local decision-makers often lack both the information and tools to reduce their community's overall vulnerability to current and future climate change impacts. Managers are restricted in their actions by the scale of the problem, inherent scientific uncertainty, limits of information exchange, and the global nature of available data, rendering place-based strategies difficult to generate. Several U.S. Pacific Northwest coastal communities are already experiencing chronic erosion and flooding, hazards only to be exacerbated by sea level rise and changing patterns of storminess associated with climate change. To address these issues, a knowledge to action network (KTAN) consisting of local Tillamook County stakeholders and Oregon State University researchers, was formed to project future flooding and erosion impacts and determine possible adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability. Via an iterative scenario planning process, the KTAN has developed four distinct adaptation policy scenarios, including 'Status Quo', 'Hold The Line', 'ReAlign', and 'Laissez-Faire'. These policy scenarios are being integrated with a range of climate change scenarios within the modeling framework Envision, a multi-agent GIS-based tool, which allows for the combination of physical processes data, probabilistic climate change information, coastal flood and erosion models, and stakeholder driven adaptation strategies into distinct plausible future scenarios. Because exact physical and social responses to climate change are impossible to ascertain, information about the differences between possible future scenarios can provide valuable information to decision-makers and the community at large. For example, the fewest projected coastal flood and erosion impacts to buildings occur under the 'ReAlign' policy scenario (i.e., adaptation strategies that move dwellings away from the coast) under both low and high climate change scenarios, especially in comparison to the 'Status Quo' or 'Hold The Line' scenarios. Statistical analysis of the scenario-based variations in impacts to private and public resources can help guide future adaptation policy implementation and support Oregon's coastal communities for years to come.