Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Laurenroth, William K.; Hall, Sonia A.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Wilson, Scott D.

2017-01-01

Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding.We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation.Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.

PubMed

Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Richardson, Anthony J; Molinos, Jorge García; Hoffmann, Ary; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa J; Brown, Christopher J; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Sydeman, William J; Ferrier, Simon; Williams, Kristen J; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2014-03-27

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

What Can Plasticity Contribute to Insect Responses to Climate Change?

PubMed

Sgrò, Carla M; Terblanche, John S; Hoffmann, Ary A

2016-01-01

Plastic responses figure prominently in discussions on insect adaptation to climate change. Here we review the different types of plastic responses and whether they contribute much to adaptation. Under climate change, plastic responses involving diapause are often critical for population persistence, but key diapause responses under dry and hot conditions remain poorly understood. Climate variability can impose large fitness costs on insects showing diapause and other life cycle responses, threatening population persistence. In response to stressful climatic conditions, insects also undergo ontogenetic changes including hardening and acclimation. Environmental conditions experienced across developmental stages or by prior generations can influence hardening and acclimation, although evidence for the latter remains weak. Costs and constraints influence patterns of plasticity across insect clades, but they are poorly understood within field contexts. Plastic responses and their evolution should be considered when predicting vulnerability to climate change-but meaningful empirical data lag behind theory.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance.

PubMed

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-02-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change.

Stress testing hydrologic models using bottom-up climate change assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, C.; Johnson, F.; Marshall, L. A.

2017-12-01

Bottom-up climate change assessment is a promising approach for understanding the vulnerability of a system to potential future changes. The technique has been utilised successfully in risk-based assessments of future flood severity and infrastructure vulnerability. We find that it is also an ideal tool for assessing hydrologic model performance in a changing climate. In this study, we applied bottom-up climate change to compare the performance of two different hydrologic models (an event-based and a continuous model) under increasingly severe climate change scenarios. This allowed us to diagnose likely sources of future prediction error in the two models. The climate change scenarios were based on projections for southern Australia, which indicate drier average conditions with increased extreme rainfall intensities. We found that the key weakness in using the event-based model to simulate drier future scenarios was the model's inability to dynamically account for changing antecedent conditions. This led to increased variability in model performance relative to the continuous model, which automatically accounts for the wetness of a catchment through dynamic simulation of water storages. When considering more intense future rainfall events, representation of antecedent conditions became less important than assumptions around (non)linearity in catchment response. The linear continuous model we applied may underestimate flood risk in a future climate with greater extreme rainfall intensity. In contrast with the recommendations of previous studies, this indicates that continuous simulation is not necessarily the key to robust flood modelling under climate change. By applying bottom-up climate change assessment, we were able to understand systematic changes in relative model performance under changing conditions and deduce likely sources of prediction error in the two models.

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

A replicated climate change field experiment reveals rapid evolutionary response in an ecologically important soil invertebrate.

PubMed

Bataillon, Thomas; Galtier, Nicolas; Bernard, Aurelien; Cryer, Nicolai; Faivre, Nicolas; Santoni, Sylvain; Severac, Dany; Mikkelsen, Teis N; Larsen, Klaus S; Beier, Claus; Sørensen, Jesper G; Holmstrup, Martin; Ehlers, Bodil K

2016-07-01

Whether species can respond evolutionarily to current climate change is crucial for the persistence of many species. Yet, very few studies have examined genetic responses to climate change in manipulated experiments carried out in natural field conditions. We examined the evolutionary response to climate change in a common annelid worm using a controlled replicated experiment where climatic conditions were manipulated in a natural setting. Analyzing the transcribed genome of 15 local populations, we found that about 12% of the genetic polymorphisms exhibit differences in allele frequencies associated to changes in soil temperature and soil moisture. This shows an evolutionary response to realistic climate change happening over short-time scale, and calls for incorporating evolution into models predicting future response of species to climate change. It also shows that designed climate change experiments coupled with genome sequencing offer great potential to test for the occurrence (or lack) of an evolutionary response. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Messages promoting genetic modification of crops in the context of climate change: Evidence for psychological reactance.

PubMed

Lu, Hang; McComas, Katherine A; Besley, John C

2017-01-01

Genetic modification (GM) of crops and climate change are arguably two of today's most challenging science communication issues. Increasingly, these two issues are connected in messages proposing GM as a viable option for ensuring global food security threatened by climate change. This study examines the effects of messages promoting the benefits of GM in the context of climate change. Further, it examines whether explicit reference to "climate change," or "global warming" in a GM message results in different effects than each other, or an implicit climate reference. An online sample of U.S. participants (N = 1050) were randomly assigned to one of four conditions: "climate change" cue, "global warming" cue, implicit cue, or control (no message). Generally speaking, framing GM crops as a way to help ensure global food security proved to be an effective messaging strategy in increasing positive attitudes toward GM. In addition, the implicit cue condition led to liberals having more positive attitudes and behavioral intentions toward GM than the "climate change" cue condition, an effect mediated by message evaluations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Climate change effects on rangelands and rangeland management: Affirming the need for monitoring

Treesearch

Daniel W. Mccollum; John A. Tanaka; Jack A. Morgan; John E. Mitchell; William E. Fox; Kristie A. Maczko; Lori Hidinger; Clifford S. Duke; Urs P. Kreuter

2017-01-01

Uncertainty as to the extent and magnitude of changes in conditions that might occur due to climate change poses a problem for land and resource managers as they seek to adapt to changes and mitigate effects of climate variability. We illustrate using scenarios of projected future conditions on rangelands in the Northern Great Plains and Desert Southwest of the United...

Projecting the global distribution of the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen, batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, based on IPCC climate futures

Treesearch

Gisselle Yang Xie; Deanna H. Olson; Andrew R. Blaustein

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate...

Climate change beliefs and hazard mitigation behaviors: Homeowners and wildfire risk

Treesearch

Hannah Brenkert-Smith; James R. Meldrum; Patricia A. Champ

2015-01-01

Downscaled climate models provide projections of how climate change may exacerbate the local impacts of natural hazards. The extent to which people facing exacerbated hazard conditions understand or respond to climate-related changes to local hazards has been largely overlooked. In this article, we examine the relationships among climate change beliefs, environmental...

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir.

PubMed

Ford, Kevin R; Harrington, Constance A; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Peter J; St Clair, J Bradley

2016-11-01

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures ('forcing') typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures ('chilling') while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ford, Kevin R.; Harrington, Constance A.; Bansal, Sheel; Gould, Petter J.; St. Clair, Bradley

2016-01-01

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (“forcing”) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (“chilling”) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height- and diameter-growth initiation in coast Douglas-fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field-based and controlled-environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, towards lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter-growth initiation than height-growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas-fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution.

Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

2014-01-01

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

Central Tropical Pacific Variability And ENSO Response To Changing Climate Boundary Conditions: Evidence From Individual Line Island Foraminifera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rustic, G. T.; Polissar, P. J.; Ravelo, A. C.; White, S. M.

2017-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a dominant role in Earth's climate variability. Paleoceanographic evidence suggests that ENSO has changed in the past, and these changes have been linked to large-scale climatic shifts. While a close relationship between ENSO evolution and climate boundary conditions has been predicted, testing these predictions remains challenging. These climate boundary conditions, including insolation, the mean surface temperature gradient of the tropical Pacific, global ice volume, and tropical thermocline depth, often co-vary and may work together to suppress or enhance the ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO variability. Furthermore, suitable paleo-archives spanning multiple climate states are sparse. We have aimed to test ENSO response to changing climate boundary conditions by generating new reconstructions of mixed-layer variability from sedimentary archives spanning the last three glacial-interglacial cycles from the Central Tropical Pacific Line Islands, where El Niño is strongly expressed. We analyzed Mg/Ca ratios from individual foraminifera to reconstruct mixed-layer variability at discrete time intervals representing combinations of climatic boundary conditions from the middle Holocene to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 8. We observe changes in the mixed-layer temperature variability during MIS 5 and during the previous interglacial (MIS 7) showing significant reductions in ENSO amplitude. Differences in variability during glacial and interglacial intervals are also observed. Additionally, we reconstructed mixed-layer and thermocline conditions using multi-species Mg/Ca and stable isotope measurements to more fully characterize the state of the Central Tropical Pacific during these intervals. These reconstructions provide us with a unique view of Central Tropical Pacific variability and water-column structure at discrete intervals under varying boundary climate conditions with which to assess factors that shape ENSO variability.

Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Water Balances and Flooding Conditions of Peninsular Malaysia watersheds by a Coupled Numerical Climate Model - Watershed Hydrology Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Kavvas, M. L.; Ishida, K.; Chen, Z. Q.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2017-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over various watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model that utilized an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional numerical climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over the selected watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions at the selected watersheds during the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90 years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant at the selected watersheds. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for the selected watersheds indicate an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century.

Connecting today's climates to future climate analogs to facilitate movement of species under climate change.

PubMed

Littlefield, Caitlin E; McRae, Brad H; Michalak, Julia L; Lawler, Joshua J; Carroll, Carlos

2017-12-01

Increasing connectivity is an important strategy for facilitating species range shifts and maintaining biodiversity in the face of climate change. To date, however, few researchers have included future climate projections in efforts to prioritize areas for increasing connectivity. We identified key areas likely to facilitate climate-induced species' movement across western North America. Using historical climate data sets and future climate projections, we mapped potential species' movement routes that link current climate conditions to analogous climate conditions in the future (i.e., future climate analogs) with a novel moving-window analysis based on electrical circuit theory. In addition to tracing shifting climates, the approach accounted for landscape permeability and empirically derived species' dispersal capabilities. We compared connectivity maps generated with our climate-change-informed approach with maps of connectivity based solely on the degree of human modification of the landscape. Including future climate projections in connectivity models substantially shifted and constrained priority areas for movement to a smaller proportion of the landscape than when climate projections were not considered. Potential movement, measured as current flow, decreased in all ecoregions when climate projections were included, particularly when dispersal was limited, which made climate analogs inaccessible. Many areas emerged as important for connectivity only when climate change was modeled in 2 time steps rather than in a single time step. Our results illustrate that movement routes needed to track changing climatic conditions may differ from those that connect present-day landscapes. Incorporating future climate projections into connectivity modeling is an important step toward facilitating successful species movement and population persistence in a changing climate. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

10 CFR 63.342 - Limits on performance assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... biosphere, atmosphere, or ground water. (2) DOE must assess the effects of climate change. The climate... of climate change, and the resulting transport and release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. The nature and degree of climate change may be represented by constant-in-time climate conditions...

10 CFR 63.342 - Limits on performance assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... biosphere, atmosphere, or ground water. (2) DOE must assess the effects of climate change. The climate... of climate change, and the resulting transport and release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. The nature and degree of climate change may be represented by constant-in-time climate conditions...

10 CFR 63.342 - Limits on performance assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... biosphere, atmosphere, or ground water. (2) DOE must assess the effects of climate change. The climate... of climate change, and the resulting transport and release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. The nature and degree of climate change may be represented by constant-in-time climate conditions...

10 CFR 63.342 - Limits on performance assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... biosphere, atmosphere, or ground water. (2) DOE must assess the effects of climate change. The climate... of climate change, and the resulting transport and release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. The nature and degree of climate change may be represented by constant-in-time climate conditions...

10 CFR 63.342 - Limits on performance assessments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... biosphere, atmosphere, or ground water. (2) DOE must assess the effects of climate change. The climate... of climate change, and the resulting transport and release of radionuclides to the accessible environment. The nature and degree of climate change may be represented by constant-in-time climate conditions...

Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change.

PubMed

Jarzyna, Marta A; Porter, William F; Maurer, Brian A; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Finley, Andrew O

2015-08-01

Forecasting the consequences of climate change is contingent upon our understanding of the relationship between biodiversity patterns and climatic variability. While the impacts of climate change on individual species have been well-documented, there is a paucity of studies on climate-mediated changes in community dynamics. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between temporal turnover in avian biodiversity and changes in climatic conditions and to assess the role of landscape fragmentation in affecting this relationship. We hypothesized that community turnover would be highest in regions experiencing the most pronounced changes in climate and that these patterns would be reduced in human-dominated landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal turnover in avian communities over a 20-year period using data from the New York State Breeding Atlases collected during 1980-1985 and 2000-2005. We applied Bayesian spatially varying intercept models to evaluate the relationship between temporal turnover and temporal trends in climatic conditions and landscape fragmentation. We found that models including interaction terms between climate change and landscape fragmentation were superior to models without the interaction terms, suggesting that the relationship between avian community turnover and changes in climatic conditions was affected by the level of landscape fragmentation. Specifically, we found weaker associations between temporal turnover and climatic change in regions with prevalent habitat fragmentation. We suggest that avian communities in fragmented landscapes are more robust to climate change than communities found in contiguous habitats because they are comprised of species with wider thermal niches and thus are less susceptible to shifts in climatic variability. We conclude that highly fragmented regions are likely to undergo less pronounced changes in composition and structure of faunal communities as a result of climate change, whereas those changes are likely to be greater in contiguous and unfragmented habitats. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

PubMed

van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

2016-06-01

The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England.

Local climatic adaptation in a widespread microorganism.

PubMed

Leducq, Jean-Baptiste; Charron, Guillaume; Samani, Pedram; Dubé, Alexandre K; Sylvester, Kayla; James, Brielle; Almeida, Pedro; Sampaio, José Paulo; Hittinger, Chris Todd; Bell, Graham; Landry, Christian R

2014-02-22

Exploring the ability of organisms to locally adapt is critical for determining the outcome of rapid climate changes, yet few studies have addressed this question in microorganisms. We investigated the role of a heterogeneous climate on adaptation of North American populations of the wild yeast Saccharomyces paradoxus. We found abundant among-strain variation for fitness components across a range of temperatures, but this variation was only partially explained by climatic variation in the distribution area. Most of fitness variation was explained by the divergence of genetically distinct groups, distributed along a north-south cline, suggesting that these groups have adapted to distinct climatic conditions. Within-group fitness components were correlated with climatic conditions, illustrating that even ubiquitous microorganisms locally adapt and harbour standing genetic variation for climate-related traits. Our results suggest that global climatic changes could lead to adaptation to new conditions within groups, or changes in their geographical distributions.

Nonstationary Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Drainge Infrastructure Coping with Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byung Sik; Jeung, Se Jin; Lee, Dong Seop; Han, Woo Suk

2015-04-01

As the abnormal rainfall condition has been more and more frequently happen and serious by climate change and variabilities, the question whether the design of drainage system could be prepared with abnormal rainfall condition or not has been on the rise. Usually, the drainage system has been designed by rainfall I-D-F (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) curve with assumption that I-D-F curve is stationary. The design approach of the drainage system has limitation not to consider the extreme rainfall condition of which I-D-F curve is non-stationary by climate change and variabilities. Therefore, the assumption that the I-D-F curve is stationary to design drainage system maybe not available in the climate change period, because climate change has changed the characteristics of extremes rainfall event to be non-stationary. In this paper, design rainfall by rainfall duration and non-stationary I-D-F curve are derived by the conditional GEV distribution considering non-stationary of rainfall characteristics. Furthermore, the effect of designed peak flow with increase of rainfall intensity was analyzed by distributed rainfall-runoff model, S-RAT(Spatial Runoff Assessment Tool). Although there are some difference by rainfall duration, the traditional I-D-F curves underestimates the extreme rainfall events for high-frequency rainfall condition. As a result, this paper suggest that traditional I-D-F curves could not be suitable for the design of drainage system under climate change condition. Keywords : Drainage system, Climate Change, non-stationary, I-D-F curves This research was supported by a grant 'Development of multi-function debris flow control technique considering extreme rainfall event' [NEMA-Natural-2014-74] from the Natural Hazard Mitigation Research Group, National Emergency Management Agency of KOREA

Effects of high temperatures and drought during anthesis and grain filling period on wheat processing quality and underlying gluten structural changes.

PubMed

Mastilović, Jasna; Živančev, Dragan; Lončar, Eva; Malbaša, Radomir; Hristov, Nikola; Kevrešan, Žarko

2018-06-01

Climate changes do not only affect wheat yield, but also its quality. Information on this topic gathered so far is somewhat contradictory and insufficient. Climate changes also affect wheat indirectly through their influence on the ecosystem, including insects and fungi that affect wheat technological quality. The aim of this study was to examine trends in structural and technological changes of wheat quality under conditions typical of climate changes. With this in mind, three groups of wheat varieties with the same Glu-score were examined in three production years, characterized by different production conditions. A production season characterized by climate change conditions results in lower activity of amylolytic enzymes. What is more, it results in lower content of gluten, higher gluten index value, its decrease after 1 h to 37 °C, lower number of free SH groups and higher content of free amino groups, which result in lower alveograph W, lower farinograph WA and higher extensograph dough resistance. Variability in wheat quality produced under different climatic conditions is mainly influenced by the production conditions, including their influence on ecosystem factors. The influence of wheat cultivar genetic predisposition is much less expressed. This indicates that differences among cultivars with different Glu-score might be diminished under the influence of altered production conditions, as a consequence of climate change. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

More rapid climate change promotes evolutionary rescue through selection for increased dispersal distance

PubMed Central

Boeye, Jeroen; Travis, Justin M J; Stoks, Robby; Bonte, Dries

2013-01-01

Species can either adapt to new conditions induced by climate change or shift their range in an attempt to track optimal environmental conditions. During current range shifts, species are simultaneously confronted with a second major anthropogenic disturbance, landscape fragmentation. Using individual-based models with a shifting climate window, we examine the effect of different rates of climate change on the evolution of dispersal distances through changes in the genetically determined dispersal kernel. Our results demonstrate that the rate of climate change is positively correlated to the evolved dispersal distances although too fast climate change causes the population to crash. When faced with realistic rates of climate change, greater dispersal distances evolve than those required for the population to keep track of the climate, thereby maximizing population size. Importantly, the greater dispersal distances that evolve when climate change is more rapid, induce evolutionary rescue by facilitating the population in crossing large gaps in the landscape. This could ensure population persistence in case of range shifting in fragmented landscapes. Furthermore, we highlight problems in using invasion speed as a proxy for potential range shifting abilities under climate change. PMID:23467649

Germination behaviour of annual plants under changing climatic conditions: separating local and regional environmental effects.

PubMed

Petrů, Martina; Tielbörger, Katja

2008-04-01

The role of local adaptation and factors other than climate in determining extinction probabilities of species under climate change has not been yet explicitly studied. Here we performed a field experiment with annual plants growing along a steep climatic gradient in Israel to isolate climatic effects for local trait expression. The focus trait was seed dormancy, for which many theoretical predictions exist regarding climate-driven optimal germination behaviour. We evaluated how germination is consistent with theory, indicating local adaptation to current and changing climatic conditions, and how it varies among species and between natural and standardised soil conditions. We reciprocally sowed seeds from three or four origins for each of three annual species, Biscutella didyma, Bromus fasciculatus and Hymenocarpos circinnatus, in their home and neighbouring sowing locations along an aridity gradient. Our predictions were: lower germination fraction for seeds from more arid origins, and higher germination at wetter sowing locations for all seed origins. By sowing seeds in both local and standard soil, we separated climatic effects from local conditions. At the arid sowing location, two species supported the prediction of low germination of drier seed origins, but differences between seed origins at the other sites were not substantial. There were no clear rainfall effects on germination. Germination fractions were consistently lower on local soil than on standard soil, indicating the important role of soil type and neighbour conditions for trait expression. Local environmental conditions may override effects of climate and so should be carefully addressed in future studies testing for the potential of species to adapt or plastically respond to climate change.

Assessing climate change impacts on wetlands in a flow regulated catchment: A case study in the Macquarie Marshes, Australia.

PubMed

Fu, Baihua; Pollino, Carmel A; Cuddy, Susan M; Andrews, Felix

2015-07-01

Globally wetlands are increasingly under threat due to changes in water regimes as a result of river regulation and climate change. We developed the Exploring CLimAte Impacts on Management (EXCLAIM) decision support system (DSS), which simulates flow-driven habitat condition for 16 vegetation species, 13 waterbird species and 4 fish groups in the Macquarie catchment, Australia. The EXCLAIM DSS estimates impacts to habitat condition, considering scenarios of climate change and water management. The model framework underlying the DSS is a probabilistic Bayesian network, and this approach was chosen to explicitly represent uncertainties in climate change scenarios and predicted ecological outcomes. The results suggest that the scenario with no climate change and no water resource development (i.e. flow condition without dams, weirs or water license entitlements, often regarded as a surrogate for 'natural' flow) consistently has the most beneficial outcomes for vegetation, waterbird and native fish. The 2030 dry climate change scenario delivers the poorest ecological outcomes overall, whereas the 2030 wet climate change scenario has beneficial outcomes for waterbird breeding, but delivers poor outcomes for river red gum and black box woodlands, and fish that prefer river channels as habitats. A formal evaluation of the waterbird breeding model showed that higher numbers of observed nest counts are typically associated with higher modelled average breeding habitat conditions. The EXCLAIM DSS provides a generic framework to link hydrology and ecological habitats for a large number of species, based on best available knowledge of their flood requirements. It is a starting point towards developing an integrated tool for assessing climate change impacts on wetland ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change response framework overview: Chapter 1

Treesearch

Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Patricia Butler

2012-01-01

Managers currently face the immense challenge of anticipating the effects of climate change on forest ecosystems and then developing and applying management responses for adapting forests to future conditions. The Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF) is a highly collaborative approach to helping land managers understand the potential effects of climate change on...

Spatial and temporal variation in climate change: A bird’s eye view

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Joseph J.; Decker, Karie L.; Skagen, Susan K.; van Riper, Charles

2009-01-01

Recent changes in global climate have dramatically altered worldwide temperatures and the corresponding timing of seasonal climate conditions. Recognizing the degree to which species respond to changing climates is therefore an area of increasing conservation concern as species that are unable to respond face increased risk of extinction. Here we examine spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the rate of climate change across western North America and discuss the potential for conditions to arise that may limit the ability of western migratory birds to adapt to changing climates. Based on 52 years of climate data, we show that changes in temperature and precipitation differ significantly between spring migration habitats in the desert southwest and breeding habitats throughout western North America. Such differences may ultimately increase costs to individual birds and thereby threaten the long-term population viability of many species.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon C.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R.

2016-01-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

2010-05-01

To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a useful Climate Twins regions search. The Climate Twins tool works actually comparing future climate conditions of a certain source area in the Greater Alpine Region with current climate conditions of entire Europe and the neighbouring southern as well south-eastern areas as target regions. A next version will integrate web crawling features for searching information about climate-related local adaptations observed today in the target region which may turn out as appropriate solution for the source region under future climate conditions. The contribution will present the current tool functionally and will discuss which indicator sets, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges work best to deliver scientifically sound climate comparisons and distinct mapping results.

Detecting hydrological changes through conceptual model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Viola, Francesco; Caracciolo, Domenico; Pumo, Dario; Francipane, Antonio; Valerio Noto, Leonardo

2015-04-01

Natural changes and human modifications in hydrological systems coevolve and interact in a coupled and interlinked way. If, on one hand, climatic changes are stochastic, non-steady, and affect the hydrological systems, on the other hand, human-induced changes due to over-exploitation of soils and water resources modifies the natural landscape, water fluxes and its partitioning. Indeed, the traditional assumption of static systems in hydrological analysis, which has been adopted for long time, fails whenever transient climatic conditions and/or land use changes occur. Time series analysis is a way to explore environmental changes together with societal changes; unfortunately, the not distinguishability between causes restrict the scope of this method. In order to overcome this limitation, it is possible to couple time series analysis with an opportune hydrological model, such as a conceptual hydrological model, which offers a schematization of complex dynamics acting within a basin. Assuming that model parameters represent morphological basin characteristics and that calibration is a way to detect hydrological signature at a specific moment, it is possible to argue that calibrating the model over different time windows could be a method for detecting potential hydrological changes. In order to test the capabilities of a conceptual model in detecting hydrological changes, this work presents different "in silico" experiments. A synthetic-basin is forced with an ensemble of possible future scenarios generated with a stochastic weather generator able to simulate steady and non-steady climatic conditions. The experiments refer to Mediterranean climate, which is characterized by marked seasonality, and consider the outcomes of the IPCC 5th report for describing climate evolution in the next century. In particular, in order to generate future climate change scenarios, a stochastic downscaling in space and time is carried out using realizations of an ensemble of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for the future scenarios 2046-2065 and 2081-2100. Land use changes (i.e., changes in the fraction of impervious area due to increasing urbanization) are explicitly simulated, while the reference hydrological responses are assessed by the spatially distributed, process-based hydrological model tRIBS, the TIN-based Real-time Integrated Basin Simulator. Several scenarios have been created, describing hypothetical centuries with steady conditions, climate change conditions, land use change conditions and finally complex conditions involving both transient climatic modifications and gradual land use changes. A conceptual lumped model, the EHSM (EcoHydrological Streamflow Model) is calibrated for the above mentioned scenarios with regard to different time-windows. The calibrated parameters show high sensitivity to anthropic variations in land use and/or climatic variability. Land use changes are clearly visible from parameters evolution especially when steady climatic conditions are considered. When the increase in urbanization is coupled with rainfall reduction the ability to detect human interventions through the analysis of conceptual model parameters is weakened.

Forest disturbances under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

2017-06-01

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests.

Forest disturbances under climate change

PubMed Central

Seidl, Rupert; Thom, Dominik; Kautz, Markus; Martin-Benito, Dario; Peltoniemi, Mikko; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Wild, Jan; Ascoli, Davide; Petr, Michal; Honkaniemi, Juha; Lexer, Manfred J.; Trotsiuk, Volodymyr; Mairota, Paola; Svoboda, Miroslav; Fabrika, Marek; Nagel, Thomas A.; Reyer, Christopher P. O.

2017-01-01

Forest disturbances are sensitive to climate. However, our understanding of disturbance dynamics in response to climatic changes remains incomplete, particularly regarding large-scale patterns, interaction effects and dampening feedbacks. Here we provide a global synthesis of climate change effects on important abiotic (fire, drought, wind, snow and ice) and biotic (insects and pathogens) disturbance agents. Warmer and drier conditions particularly facilitate fire, drought and insect disturbances, while warmer and wetter conditions increase disturbances from wind and pathogens. Widespread interactions between agents are likely to amplify disturbances, while indirect climate effects such as vegetation changes can dampen long-term disturbance sensitivities to climate. Future changes in disturbance are likely to be most pronounced in coniferous forests and the boreal biome. We conclude that both ecosystems and society should be prepared for an increasingly disturbed future of forests. PMID:28861124

A conceptual model of plant responses to climate with implications for monitoring ecosystem change

Treesearch

C. David Bertelsen

2013-01-01

Climate change is affecting natural systems on a global scale and is particularly rapid in the Southwest. It is important to identify impacts of a changing climate before ecosystems become unstable. Recognizing plant responses to climate change requires knowledge of both species present and plant responses to variable climatic conditions. A conceptual model derived...

A Climatic Stability Approach to Prioritizing Global Conservation Investments

PubMed Central

Iwamura, Takuya; Wilson, Kerrie A.; Venter, Oscar; Possingham, Hugh P.

2010-01-01

Climate change is impacting species and ecosystems globally. Many existing templates to identify the most important areas to conserve terrestrial biodiversity at the global scale neglect the future impacts of climate change. Unstable climatic conditions are predicted to undermine conservation investments in the future. This paper presents an approach to developing a resource allocation algorithm for conservation investment that incorporates the ecological stability of ecoregions under climate change. We discover that allocating funds in this way changes the optimal schedule of global investments both spatially and temporally. This allocation reduces the biodiversity loss of terrestrial endemic species from protected areas due to climate change by 22% for the period of 2002–2052, when compared to allocations that do not consider climate change. To maximize the resilience of global biodiversity to climate change we recommend that funding be increased in ecoregions located in the tropics and/or mid-elevation habitats, where climatic conditions are predicted to remain relatively stable. Accounting for the ecological stability of ecoregions provides a realistic approach to incorporating climate change into global conservation planning, with potential to save more species from extinction in the long term. PMID:21152095

Spatiotemporal analysis of the effect of climate change on vegetation health in the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa.

PubMed

Mukwada, Geoffrey; Manatsa, Desmond

2018-05-24

The impact of climate change on mountain ecosystems has been in the spotlight for the past three decades. Climate change is generally considered to be a threat to ecosystem health in mountain regions. Vegetation indices can be used to detect shifts in ecosystem phenology and climate change in mountain regions while satellite imagery can play an important role in this process. However, what has remained problematic is determining the extent to which ecosystem phenology is affected by climate change under increasingly warming conditions. In this paper, we use climate and vegetation indices that were derived from satellite data to investigate the link between ecosystem phenology and climate change in the Namahadi Catchment Area of the Drakensberg Mountain Region of South Africa. The time series for climate indices as well as those for gridded precipitation and temperature data were analyzed in order to determine climate shifts, and concomitant changes in vegetation health were assessed in the resultant epochs using vegetation indices. The results indicate that vegetation indices should only be used to assess trends in climate change under relatively pristine conditions, where human influence is limited. This knowledge is important for designing climate change monitoring strategies that are based on ecosystem phenology and vegetation health.

Avoided economic impacts of energy demand changes by 1.5 and 2 °C climate stabilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, Chan; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Takakura, Jun’ya; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki

2018-04-01

Energy demand associated with space heating and cooling is expected to be affected by climate change. There are several global projections of space heating and cooling use that take into consideration climate change, but a comprehensive uncertainty of socioeconomic and climate conditions, including a 1.5 °C global mean temperature change, has never been assessed. This paper shows the economic impact of changes in energy demand for space heating and cooling under multiple socioeconomic and climatic conditions. We use three shared socioeconomic pathways as socioeconomic conditions. For climate conditions, we use two representative concentration pathways that correspond to 4.0 °C and 2.0 °C scenarios, and a 1.5 °C scenario driven from the 2.0 °C scenario with assumption in conjunction with five general circulation models. We find that the economic impacts of climate change are largely affected by socioeconomic assumptions, and global GDP change rates range from +0.21% to ‑2.01% in 2100 under the 4.0 °C scenario, depending on the socioeconomic condition. Sensitivity analysis that differentiates the thresholds of heating and cooling degree days clarifies that the threshold is a strong factor that generates these differences. Meanwhile, the impact of the 1.5 °C is small regardless of socioeconomic assumptions (‑0.02% to ‑0.06%). The economic loss caused by differences in socioeconomic assumption under the 1.5 °C scenario is much smaller than that under the 2 °C scenario, which implies that stringent climate mitigation can work as a risk hedge to socioeconomic development diversity.

Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagener, Thorsten; Mann, Michael; Crane, Robert

2014-04-29

This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach tomore » establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.« less

Leaf-trait plasticity and species vulnerability to climate change in a Mongolian steppe.

PubMed

Liancourt, Pierre; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Song, Daniel S; Spence, Laura A; Helliker, Brent R; Petraitis, Peter S; Casper, Brenda B

2015-09-01

Climate change is expected to modify plant assemblages in ways that will have major consequences for ecosystem functions. How climate change will affect community composition will depend on how individual species respond, which is likely related to interspecific differences in functional traits. The extraordinary plasticity of some plant traits is typically neglected in assessing how climate change will affect different species. In the Mongolian steppe, we examined whether leaf functional traits under ambient conditions and whether plasticity in these traits under altered climate could explain climate-induced biomass responses in 12 co-occurring plant species. We experimentally created three probable climate change scenarios and used a model selection procedure to determine the set of baseline traits or plasticity values that best explained biomass response. Under all climate change scenarios, plasticity for at least one leaf trait correlated with change in species performance, while functional leaf-trait values in ambient conditions did not. We demonstrate that trait plasticity could play a critical role in vulnerability of species to a rapidly changing environment. Plasticity should be considered when examining how climate change will affect plant performance, species' niche spaces, and ecological processes that depend on plant community composition. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development of an Empirically-Based Conditional Learning Progression for Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breslyn, Wayne; Drewes, Andrea; McGinnis, J. Randy; Hestness, Emily; Mouza, Chrystalla

2017-01-01

Climate change encompasses a broad and complex set of concepts that is often challenging for students and educators. Using a learning progressions (LPs) knowledge system, we developed a LP that described student learning of climate change. In this exploratory study, we present findings from written assessments of climate change (n = 294) and…

Cold truths: how winter drives responses of terrestrial organisms to climate change.

PubMed

Williams, Caroline M; Henry, Hugh A L; Sinclair, Brent J

2015-02-01

Winter is a key driver of individual performance, community composition, and ecological interactions in terrestrial habitats. Although climate change research tends to focus on performance in the growing season, climate change is also modifying winter conditions rapidly. Changes to winter temperatures, the variability of winter conditions, and winter snow cover can interact to induce cold injury, alter energy and water balance, advance or retard phenology, and modify community interactions. Species vary in their susceptibility to these winter drivers, hampering efforts to predict biological responses to climate change. Existing frameworks for predicting the impacts of climate change do not incorporate the complexity of organismal responses to winter. Here, we synthesise organismal responses to winter climate change, and use this synthesis to build a framework to predict exposure and sensitivity to negative impacts. This framework can be used to estimate the vulnerability of species to winter climate change. We describe the importance of relationships between winter conditions and performance during the growing season in determining fitness, and demonstrate how summer and winter processes are linked. Incorporating winter into current models will require concerted effort from theoreticians and empiricists, and the expansion of current growing-season studies to incorporate winter. © 2014 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2014 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

PubMed Central

Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

2013-01-01

We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

Effects of City Expansion on Heat Stress under Climate Change Conditions

PubMed Central

Argüeso, Daniel; Evans, Jason P.; Pitman, Andrew J.; Di Luca, Alejandro

2015-01-01

We examine the joint contribution of urban expansion and climate change on heat stress over the Sydney region. A Regional Climate Model was used to downscale present (1990–2009) and future (2040–2059) simulations from a Global Climate Model. The effects of urban surfaces on local temperature and vapor pressure were included. The role of urban expansion in modulating the climate change signal at local scales was investigated using a human heat-stress index combining temperature and vapor pressure. Urban expansion and climate change leads to increased risk of heat-stress conditions in the Sydney region, with substantially more frequent adverse conditions in urban areas. Impacts are particularly obvious in extreme values; daytime heat-stress impacts are more noticeable in the higher percentiles than in the mean values and the impact at night is more obvious in the lower percentiles than in the mean. Urban expansion enhances heat-stress increases due to climate change at night, but partly compensates its effects during the day. These differences are due to a stronger contribution from vapor pressure deficit during the day and from temperature increases during the night induced by urban surfaces. Our results highlight the inappropriateness of assessing human comfort determined using temperature changes alone and point to the likelihood that impacts of climate change assessed using models that lack urban surfaces probably underestimate future changes in terms of human comfort. PMID:25668390

Impact of urban WWTP and CSO fluxes on river peak flow extremes under current and future climate conditions.

PubMed

Keupers, Ingrid; Willems, Patrick

2013-01-01

The impact of urban water fluxes on the river system outflow of the Grote Nete catchment (Belgium) was studied. First the impact of the Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) and the Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) outflows on the river system for the current climatic conditions was determined by simulating the urban fluxes as point sources in a detailed, hydrodynamic river model. Comparison was made of the simulation results on peak flow extremes with and without the urban point sources. In a second step, the impact of climate change scenarios on the urban fluxes and the consequent impacts on the river flow extremes were studied. It is shown that the change in the 10-year return period hourly peak flow discharge due to climate change (-14% to +45%) was in the same order of magnitude as the change due to the urban fluxes (+5%) in current climate conditions. Different climate change scenarios do not change the impact of the urban fluxes much except for the climate scenario that involves a strong increase in rainfall extremes in summer. This scenario leads to a strong increase of the impact of the urban fluxes on the river system.

Water resources under future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development: A case study for Yakima River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.

2013-12-01

In recent years, biofuel has become an important renewable energy source with a potential to help mitigate climate change. However, agriculture productivity and its potential use for sustainable production of biofuel are strongly dependent on climate and water conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. For instant in 2012, the US has experienced the most severe drought that results in a 12% decrease in corn production - the main feedstock used for biofuel in US - indicating the vulnerability of biofuel development and policies to change in climate and associated extreme weather conditions. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have applied a SWAT watershed model which integrates future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development and simulates the associated impacts on watershed hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The study is applied to the Yakima River basin (YRB), which has higher biomass resources in Washington State and represents a region where forestry and agriculture intersect with considerable water shortage as well as spatial variations in annual precipitation. Unlike earlier studies, which commonly define biofuel and climate change scenarios independently, in this study the decision on alternative biofuel feedstock mixes and associated change in land use and management take into account the anticipated climate change. The resulted spatial and temporal distributions of water budget, nutrient loads, and sediment erosion is analyzed to evaluate the effectiveness of biofuel policies under constraints of climate change and water resources in the region.

Regional and global implications of land-use change and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Heidi Lada

This dissertation has two main components. The first is a longterm regional climate modeling study of the effects of different types of land use changes on Southeast Asian climate under present-day climate conditions and under future projected climate conditions at the end of the 21st Century. The focus of the second component is to estimate daily heat index for projected extreme temperatures at the end of the 21st Century and projecting the number of people affected by those heat conditions. The first component of this study uses a high-resolution regional climate model centered on the Southeast Asian region to compare two land use change scenarios under modern climate and future projected climate conditions. Results from experiments under modern climate conditions indicate that changes in regional climate including widespread surface cooling, increased precipitation, and increased latent heat flux are primarily due to deforestation. As expected from other studies, future climate projections indicate increasing surface temperature and total precipitation. However, the combination of increasing global temperatures and irrigation appears to increase latent heat flux and evapotranspiration, leading to decrease in the surface temperature nearly the same magnitude, increasing both specific humidity and relative humidity. The increasing relative humidity causes low clouds to form, and the net surface solar absorbed flux decreases in response, which further cools the surface. These results imply that deforestation and irrigation have differing complex regional climate responses and the presence of irrigation could mask future surface temperature increases, at least in the short term and reinforce the importance of incorporating land use changes, particularly irrigation, into any studies of future regional climate. The second component of this study uses global daily maximum heat indices derived from future climate future climate simulations for 2098 and projected population density to estimate how many people will be affected by rising temperatures. Our results show that over 4 billion people annually will experience prolonged periods of Danger heat index conditions, under which heat exhaustion and heat stroke are likely. In addition, a majority of people subjected to prolonged high heat stress conditions are located in tropical developing nations, such as those in south and Southeast Asia, where population density is high and large numbers of people work outdoors. Many countries in these regions lack the resources to mitigate the impact of heat stress on the large numbers of people likely to experience heat-related illness and death.

Rapid climate fluctuations over the past millennium: evidence from a lacustrine record of Basomtso Lake, southeastern Tibetan Plateau

PubMed Central

Li, Kai; Liu, Xingqi; Herzschuh, Ulrike; Wang, Yongbo

2016-01-01

Abrupt climate changes and fluctuations over short time scales are superimposed on long-term climate changes. Understanding rapid climate fluctuations at the decadal time scale over the past millennium will enhance our understanding of patterns of climate variability and aid in forecasting climate changes in the future. In this study, climate changes on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau over the past millennium were determined from a 4.82-m-long sediment core from Basomtso Lake. At the centennial time scale, the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), Little Ice Age (LIA) and Current Warm Period (CWP) are distinct in the Basomtso region. Rapid climate fluctuations inferred from five episodes with higher sediment input and likely warmer conditions, as well as seven episodes with lower sediment input and likely colder conditions, were well preserved in our record. These episodes with higher and lower sediment input are characterized by abrupt climate changes and short time durations. Spectral analysis indicates that the climate variations at the centennial scale on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau are influenced by solar activity during the past millennium. PMID:27091591

Flow regime alterations under changing climate in two river basins: Implications for freshwater ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gibson, C.A.; Meyer, J.L.; Poff, N.L.; Hay, L.E.; Georgakakos, A.

2005-01-01

We examined impacts of future climate scenarios on flow regimes and how predicted changes might affect river ecosystems. We examined two case studies: Cle Elum River, Washington, and Chattahoochee-Apalachicola River Basin, Georgia and Florida. These rivers had available downscaled global circulation model (GCM) data and allowed us to analyse the effects of future climate scenarios on rivers with (1) different hydrographs, (2) high future water demands, and (3) a river-floodplain system. We compared observed flow regimes to those predicted under future climate scenarios to describe the extent and type of changes predicted to occur. Daily stream flow under future climate scenarios was created by either statistically downscaling GCMs (Cle Elum) or creating a regression model between climatological parameters predicted from GCMs and stream flow (Chattahoochee-Apalachicola). Flow regimes were examined for changes from current conditions with respect to ecologically relevant features including the magnitude and timing of minimum and maximum flows. The Cle Elum's hydrograph under future climate scenarios showed a dramatic shift in the timing of peak flows and lower low flow of a longer duration. These changes could mean higher summer water temperatures, lower summer dissolved oxygen, and reduced survival of larval fishes. The Chattahoochee-Apalachicola basin is heavily impacted by dams and water withdrawals for human consumption; therefore, we made comparisons between pre-large dam conditions, current conditions, current conditions with future demand, and future climate scenarios with future demand to separate climate change effects and other anthropogenic impacts. Dam construction, future climate, and future demand decreased the flow variability of the river. In addition, minimum flows were lower under future climate scenarios. These changes could decrease the connectivity of the channel and the floodplain, decrease habitat availability, and potentially lower the ability of the river to assimilate wastewater treatment plant effluent. Our study illustrates the types of changes that river ecosystems might experience under future climates. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Change of ocean circulation in the East Asian Marginal Seas under different climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Min, Hong Sik; Kim, Cheol-Ho; Kim, Young Ho

2010-05-01

Global climate models do not properly resolve an ocean environment in the East Asian Marginal Seas (EAMS), which is mainly due to a poor representation of the topography in continental shelf region and a coarse spatial resolution. To examine a possible change of ocean environment under global warming in the EAMS, therefore we used North Pacific Regional Ocean Model. The regional model was forced by atmospheric conditions extracted from the simulation results of the global climate models for the 21st century projected by the IPCC SRES A1B scenario as well as the 20th century. The North Pacific Regional Ocean model simulated a detailed pattern of temperature change in the EAMS showing locally different rising or falling trend under the future climate condition, while the global climate models simulated a simple pattern like an overall increase. Changes of circulation pattern in the EAMS such as an intrusion of warm water into the Yellow Sea as well as the Kuroshio were also well resolved. Annual variations in volume transports through the Taiwan Strait and the Korea Strait under the future condition were simulated to be different from those under present condition. Relative ratio of volume transport through the Soya Strait to the Tsugaru Strait also responded to the climate condition.

The relative contribution of climate to changes in lesser prairie-chicken abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ross, Beth E.; Haukos, David A.; Hagen, Christian A.; Pitman, James

2016-01-01

Managing for species using current weather patterns fails to incorporate the uncertainty associated with future climatic conditions; without incorporating potential changes in climate into conservation strategies, management and conservation efforts may fall short or waste valuable resources. Understanding the effects of climate change on species in the Great Plains of North America is especially important, as this region is projected to experience an increased magnitude of climate change. Of particular ecological and conservation interest is the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), which was listed as “threatened” under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in May 2014. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to quantify the effects of extreme climatic events (extreme values of the Palmer Drought Severity Index [PDSI]) relative to intermediate (changes in El Niño Southern Oscillation) and long-term climate variability (changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation) on trends in lesser prairie-chicken abundance from 1981 to 2014. Our results indicate that lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks responded to environmental conditions of the year previous by positively responding to wet springs (high PDSI) and negatively to years with hot, dry summers (low PDSI), but had little response to variation in the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Additionally, greater variation in abundance on leks was explained by variation in site relative to broad-scale climatic indices. Consequently, lesser prairie-chicken abundance on leks in Kansas is more strongly influenced by extreme drought events during summer than other climatic conditions, which may have negative consequences for the population as drought conditions intensify throughout the Great Plains.

Separating the role of biotic interactions and climate in determining adaptive response of plants to climate change.

PubMed

Tomiolo, Sara; Van der Putten, Wim H; Tielbörger, Katja

2015-05-01

Altered rainfall regimes will greatly affect the response of plant species to climate change. However, little is known about how direct effects of changing precipitation on plant performance may depend on other abiotic factors and biotic interactions. We used reciprocal transplants between climatically very different sites with simultaneous manipulation of soil, plant population origin, and neighbor conditions to evaluate local adaptation and possible adaptive response of four Eastern Mediterranean annual plant species to climate change. The effect of site on plant performance was negligible, but soil origin had a strong effect on fecundity, most likely due to differential water retaining ability. Competition by neighbors strongly reduced fitness. We separated the effects of the abiotic and biotic soil properties on plant performance by repeating the field experiment in a greenhouse under homogenous environmental conditions and including a soil biota manipulation treatment. As in the field, plant performance differed among soil origins and neighbor treatments. Moreover, we found plant species-specific responses to soil biota that may be best explained by the differential sensitivity to negative and positive soil biota effects. Overall, under the conditions of our experiment with two contrasting sites, biotic interactions had a strong effect on plant fitness that interacted with and eventually overrode climate. Because climate and biotic interactions covary, reciprocal transplants and climate gradient studies should consider soil biotic interactions and abiotic conditions when evaluating climate change effects on plant performance.

Mid-to-late Holocene climate change record in palaeo-notch sediment from London Island, Svalbard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zhongkang; Sun, Liguang; Zhou, Xin; Wang, Yuhong

2018-06-01

The Arctic region is very sensitive to climate change and important in the Earth's climate system. However, proxy datasets for Arctic climate are unevenly distributed and especially scarce for Svalbard because glaciers during the Little Ice Age, the most extensive in the Holocene, destroyed large quantities of sediment records in Svalbard. Fortunately, palaeo-notch sediments could withstand glaciers and be well-preserved after deposition. In this study, we reconstructed a mid-to-late Holocene record of climate changes in a palaeo-notch sediment sequence from London Island. Multiple weathering indices were determined, they all showed consistent weathering conditions in the study area, and they were closely linked to climate changes. Total organic carbon (TOC) and total nitrogen (TN) were also determined, and their variation profiles were similar to those of weathering indices. The climate change record in our sediment sequence is consistent with ice rafting record from North Atlantic and glacier activity from Greenland, Iceland and Svalbard, and four cold periods are clearly present. Our study provides a relatively long-term climate change record for climate conditions from mid-to-late Holocene in Svalbard.

Simulating streamflow in ungauged basins under a changing climate: The importance of landscape characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Laudon, Hjalmar; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Bishop, Kevin

2018-06-01

In this paper we explored how landscape characteristics such as topography, geology, soils and land cover influence the way catchments respond to changing climate conditions. Based on an ensemble of 15 regional climate models bias-corrected with a distribution-mapping approach, present and future streamflow in 14 neighboring and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden was simulated with the HBV model. We established functional relationships between a range of landscape characteristics and projected changes in streamflow signatures. These were then used to analyze hydrological consequences of physical perturbations in a hypothetically ungauged basin in a climate change context. Our analysis showed a strong connection between the forest cover extent and the sensitivity of different components of a catchment's hydrological regime to changing climate conditions. This emphasizes the need to redefine forestry goals and practices in advance of climate change-related risks and uncertainties.

A review of the consequences of global climate change on human health.

PubMed

Kim, Ki-Hyun; Kabir, Ehsanul; Ara Jahan, Shamin

2014-01-01

The impact of climate change has been significant enough to endanger human health both directly and indirectly via heat stress, degraded air quality, rising sea levels, food and water security, extreme weather events (e.g., floods, droughts, earthquakes, volcano eruptions, tsunamis, hurricanes, etc.), vulnerable shelter, and population migration. The deterioration of environmental conditions may facilitate the transmission of diarrhea, vector-borne and infectious diseases, cardiovascular and respiratory illnesses, malnutrition, etc. Indirect effects of climate change such as mental health problems due to stress, loss of homes, economic instability, and forced migration are also unignorably important. Children, the elderly, and communities living in poverty are among the most vulnerable of the harmful effects due to climate change. In this article, we have reviewed the scientific evidence for the human health impact of climate change and analyzed the various diseases in association with changes in the atmospheric environment and climate conditions.

Southern Foresters' Perceptions of Climate Change: Implications for Educational Program Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boby, Leslie; Hubbard, William; Megalos, Mark; Morris, Hilary L. C.

2016-01-01

An understanding of foresters' perceptions of climate change is important for developing effective educational programs on adaptive forest management. We surveyed 1,398 foresters in the southern United States regarding their perceptions of climate change, observations and concerns about climatic and forest conditions, and knowledge of and interest…

Effects of changing climate on European stream invertebrate communities: A long-term data analysis.

PubMed

Jourdan, Jonas; O'Hara, Robert B; Bottarin, Roberta; Huttunen, Kaisa-Leena; Kuemmerlen, Mathias; Monteith, Don; Muotka, Timo; Ozoliņš, Dāvis; Paavola, Riku; Pilotto, Francesca; Springe, Gunta; Skuja, Agnija; Sundermann, Andrea; Tonkin, Jonathan D; Haase, Peter

2018-04-15

Long-term observations on riverine benthic invertebrate communities enable assessments of the potential impacts of global change on stream ecosystems. Besides increasing average temperatures, many studies predict greater temperature extremes and intense precipitation events as a consequence of climate change. In this study we examined long-term observation data (10-32years) of 26 streams and rivers from four ecoregions in the European Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network, to investigate invertebrate community responses to changing climatic conditions. We used functional trait and multi-taxonomic analyses and combined examinations of general long-term changes in communities with detailed analyses of the impact of different climatic drivers (i.e., various temperature and precipitation variables) by focusing on the response of communities to climatic conditions of the previous year. Taxa and ecoregions differed substantially in their response to climate change conditions. We did not observe any trend of changes in total taxonomic richness or overall abundance over time or with increasing temperatures, which reflects a compensatory turnover in the composition of communities; sensitive Plecoptera decreased in response to warmer years and Ephemeroptera increased in northern regions. Invasive species increased with an increasing number of extreme days which also caused an apparent upstream community movement. The observed changes in functional feeding group diversity indicate that climate change may be associated with changes in trophic interactions within aquatic food webs. These findings highlight the vulnerability of riverine ecosystems to climate change and emphasize the need to further explore the interactive effects of climate change variables with other local stressors to develop appropriate conservation measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia

PubMed Central

Cumming, Brian F.; Laird, Kathleen R.; Bennett, Joseph R.; Smol, John P.; Salomon, Anne K.

2002-01-01

Inferences of past climatic conditions from a sedimentary record from Big Lake, British Columbia, Canada, over the past 5,500 years show strong millennial-scale patterns, which oscillate between periods of wet and drier climatic conditions. Higher frequency decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations also occur within the dominant millennial-scale patterns. These changes in climatic conditions are based on estimates of changes in lake depth and salinity inferred from diatom assemblages in a well dated sediment core. After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years. The correspondence of these shifts to millennial-scale variations in records of glacial expansion/recession and ice-rafting events in the Atlantic suggest that abrupt millennial-scale shifts are important to understanding climatic variability in North America during the mid- to late Holocene. Unfortunately, the spatial patterns and mechanisms behind these large and abrupt swings are poorly understood. Similar abrupt and prolonged changes in climatic conditions today could pose major societal challenges for many regions. PMID:12461174

Persistent millennial-scale shifts in moisture regimes in western Canada during the past six millennia.

PubMed

Cumming, Brian F; Laird, Kathleen R; Bennett, Joseph R; Smol, John P; Salomon, Anne K

2002-12-10

Inferences of past climatic conditions from a sedimentary record from Big Lake, British Columbia, Canada, over the past 5,500 years show strong millennial-scale patterns, which oscillate between periods of wet and drier climatic conditions. Higher frequency decadal- to centennial-scale fluctuations also occur within the dominant millennial-scale patterns. These changes in climatic conditions are based on estimates of changes in lake depth and salinity inferred from diatom assemblages in a well dated sediment core. After periods of relative stability, abrupt shifts in diatom assemblages and inferred climatic conditions occur approximately every 1,220 years. The correspondence of these shifts to millennial-scale variations in records of glacial expansionrecession and ice-rafting events in the Atlantic suggest that abrupt millennial-scale shifts are important to understanding climatic variability in North America during the mid- to late Holocene. Unfortunately, the spatial patterns and mechanisms behind these large and abrupt swings are poorly understood. Similar abrupt and prolonged changes in climatic conditions today could pose major societal challenges for many regions.

Forest environmental investments and implications for climate change mitigation.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Lucas S. Bair

2006-01-01

Forest environmental conditions are affected by climate change, but investments in forest environmental quality can be used as part of the climate change mitigation strategy. A key question involving the potential use of forests to store more carbon as part of climate change mitigation is the impact of forest investments on the timing and quantity of forest volumes...

Hysteresis in the Central African Rainforest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, Stephan Alexander; Elias Bednar, Johannes; Gautam, Sishir; Petritsch, Richard; Schier, Franziska; Stanzl, Patrick

2014-05-01

Past climate change caused severe disturbances of the Central African rainforest belt, with forest fragmentation and re-expansion due to drier and wetter climate conditions. Besides climate, human induced forest degradation affected biodiversity, structure and carbon storage of Congo basin rainforests. Information on climatically stable, mature rainforest, unaffected by human induced disturbances, provides means of assessing the impact of forest degradation and may serve as benchmarks of carbon carrying capacity over regions with similar site and climate conditions. BioGeoChemical (BGC) ecosystem models explicitly consider the impacts of site and climate conditions and may assess benchmark levels over regions devoid of undisturbed conditions. We will present a BGC-model validation for the Western Congolian Lowland Rainforest (WCLRF) using field data from a recently confirmed forest refuge, show model - data comparisons for disturbed und undisturbed forests under different site and climate conditions as well as for sites with repeated assessment of biodiversity and standing biomass during recovery from intensive exploitation. We will present climatic thresholds for WCLRF stability, analyse the relationship between resilience, standing C-stocks and change in climate and finally provide evidence of hysteresis.

Local oceanographic variability influences the performance of juvenile abalone under climate change.

PubMed

Boch, C A; Micheli, F; AlNajjar, M; Monismith, S G; Beers, J M; Bonilla, J C; Espinoza, A M; Vazquez-Vera, L; Woodson, C B

2018-04-03

Climate change is causing warming, deoxygenation, and acidification of the global ocean. However, manifestation of climate change may vary at local scales due to oceanographic conditions. Variation in stressors, such as high temperature and low oxygen, at local scales may lead to variable biological responses and spatial refuges from climate impacts. We conducted outplant experiments at two locations separated by ~2.5 km and two sites at each location separated by ~200 m in the nearshore of Isla Natividad, Mexico to assess how local ocean conditions (warming and hypoxia) may affect juvenile abalone performance. Here, we show that abalone growth and mortality mapped to variability in stress exposure across sites and locations. These insights indicate that management decisions aimed at maintaining and recovering valuable marine species in the face of climate change need to be informed by local variability in environmental conditions.

Climate change impact assessment on flow regime by incorporating spatial correlation and scenario uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vallam, P.; Qin, X. S.

2017-07-01

Flooding risk is increasing in many parts of the world and may worsen under climate change conditions. The accuracy of predicting flooding risk relies on reasonable projection of meteorological data (especially rainfall) at the local scale. The current statistical downscaling approaches face the difficulty of projecting multi-site climate information for future conditions while conserving spatial information. This study presents a combined Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) stochastic weather generator and multi-site rainfall simulator RainSim (CLWRS) approach to investigate flow regimes under future conditions in the Kootenay Watershed, Canada. To understand the uncertainty effect stemming from different scenarios, the climate output is fed into a hydrologic model. The results showed different variation trends of annual peak flows (in 2080-2099) based on different climate change scenarios and demonstrated that the hydrological impact would be driven by the interaction between snowmelt and peak flows. The proposed CLWRS approach is useful where there is a need for projection of potential climate change scenarios.

The potential impact of regional climate change on fire weather in the United States

Treesearch

Ying Tang; Shiyuan Zhong; Lifeng Luo; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Julie. Winkler

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the frequency and severity of atmospheric conditions conducive for wildfires. In this study, we assess potential changes in fire weather conditions for the contiguous United States using the Haines Index (HI), a fire weather index that has been employed operationally to detect atmospheric conditions favorable for large and erratic...

Climate change, multiple stressors, and the decline of ectotherms.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Palmer, Brent D

2013-08-01

Climate change is believed to be causing declines of ectothermic vertebrates, but there is little evidence that climatic conditions associated with declines have exceeded critical (i.e., acutely lethal) maxima or minima, and most relevant studies are correlative, anecdotal, or short-term (hours). We conducted an 11-week factorial experiment to examine the effects of temperature (22 °C or 27 °C), moisture (wet or dry), and atrazine (an herbicide; 0, 4, 40, 400 μg/L exposure as embryos and larvae) on the survival, growth, behavior, and foraging rates of postmetamorphic streamside salamanders (Ambystoma barbouri), a species of conservation concern. The tested climatic conditions were between the critical maxima and minima of streamside salamanders; thus, this experiment quantified the long-term effects of climate change within the noncritical range of this species. Despite a suite of behavioral adaptations to warm and dry conditions (e.g., burrowing, refuge use, huddling with conspecifics, and a reduction in activity), streamside salamanders exhibited significant loss of mass and significant mortality in all but the cool and moist conditions, which were closest to the climatic conditions in which they are most active in nature. A temperature of 27 °C represented a greater mortality risk than dry conditions; death occurred rapidly at this temperature and more gradually under cool and dry conditions. Foraging decreased under dry conditions, which suggests there were opportunity costs to water conservation. Exposure to the herbicide atrazine additively decreased water-conserving behaviors, foraging efficiency, mass, and time to death. Hence, the hypothesis that moderate climate change can cause population declines is even more plausible under scenarios with multiple stressors. These results suggest that climate change within the noncritical range of species and pollution may reduce individual performance by altering metabolic demands, hydration, and foraging effort and may facilitate population declines of amphibians and perhaps other ectothermic vertebrates. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Assessing Potential Climate Change Effects on Loblolly Pine Growth: A Probabilistic Regional Modeling Approach

Treesearch

Peter B. Woodbury; James E. Smith; David A. Weinstein; John A. Laurence

1998-01-01

Most models of the potential effects of climate change on forest growth have produced deterministic predictions. However, there are large uncertainties in data on regional forest condition, estimates of future climate, and quantitative relationships between environmental conditions and forest growth rate. We constructed a new model to analyze these uncertainties...

Productivity of Rice Grown on Arsenic Contaminated Soil under a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, T.; Plaganas, M.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

2016-12-01

Rice is the staple food for more than 50% of the global population. In South and Southeast Asia, native soil arsenic coupled with arsenic-laden irrigation water result in paddy soils having arsenic levels that decrease the quality and productivity of rice and thus compromise food security worldwide. However, it remains unknown how climate change will affect the accumulation of arsenic in rice plants, specifically grain, grown in arsenic-bearing paddy soils. We hypothesize that the bioavailability of arsenic in the paddy soil will increase with climate change leading to an even sharper decrease of rice productivity and quality than presently estimated. In order to shed light on this question, we performed greenhouse studies to simulate today's climate condition in Asian paddy soils and compare it to the conditions projected for the year 2100. We investigated climate conditions estimated in the 5th assessment report of the IPCC1, indicating up to a 5°C increase in temperature and doubled atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Under these current and future climate conditions, we examined rice physiology including plant height and biomass, leaf chlorophyll content, grain number and weight as well as contents of accumulated arsenic, and its species in the different rice tissues. We further correlate different geochemical parameters of the soil, including arsenic and other relevant metal dynamics in the soil, to plant response. In sum, our analyses will allow us to better predict the productivity of rice and its grain quality in a future climate condition, and may help to take precautions to avoid a global food crisis, particularly for South and Southeast Asia where rice is a daily staple. 1IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2013, The Physical Science Basis.

US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

Potential impacts of climate change on soil erosion vulnerability across the conterminous United States

Treesearch

C. Segura; G. Sun; S. McNulty; Y. Zhang

2014-01-01

Rainfall runoff erosivity (R) is one key climate factor that controls water erosion. Quantifying the effects of climate change-induced erosivity change is important for identifying critical regions prone to soil erosion under a changing environment. In this study we first evaluate the changes of R from 1970 to 2090 across the United States under nine climate conditions...

Minnesota forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Stephen Handler; Matthew J. Duveneck; Louis Iverson; Emily Peters; Robert M. Scheller; Kirk R. Wythers; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Kelly Barrett; Randy Kolka; Casey McQuiston; Brian Palik; Peter B. Reich; Clarence Turner; Mark White; Cheryl Adams; Anthony D' Amato; Suzanne Hagell; Patricia Johnson; Rosemary Johnson; Mike Larson; Stephen Matthews; Rebecca Montgomery; Steve Olson; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jack Rajala; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; David Fehringer; Christopher L. Hoving; Gary Johnson; Lucinda Johnson; David Neitzel; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert. Ziel

2014-01-01

Forests in northern Minnesota will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Minnesota's Laurentian Mixed Forest Province to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate changes, and...

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Barsugli, Joseph J; Rashford, Benjamin S; Reese, Gordon C; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Wood, Andrew W; Noon, Barry R

2016-09-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Real options analysis for photovoltaic project under climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Sejong; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2016-08-01

The decision on photovoltaic project depends on the level of climate environments. Changes in temperature and insolation affect photovoltaic output. It is important for investors to consider future climate conditions for determining investments on photovoltaic projects. We propose a real options-based framework to assess economic feasibility of photovoltaic project under climate change. The framework supports investors to evaluate climate change impact on photovoltaic projects under future climate uncertainty.

Climate change and malaria in Canada: a systems approach.

PubMed

Berrang-Ford, L; Maclean, J D; Gyorkos, Theresa W; Ford, J D; Ogden, N H

2009-01-01

This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change.

Climate Change and Malaria in Canada: A Systems Approach

PubMed Central

Berrang-Ford, L.; MacLean, J. D.; Gyorkos, Theresa W.; Ford, J. D.; Ogden, N. H.

2009-01-01

This article examines the potential for changes in imported and autochthonous malaria incidence in Canada as a consequence of climate change. Drawing on a systems framework, we qualitatively characterize and assess the potential direct and indirect impact of climate change on malaria in Canada within the context of other concurrent ecological and social trends. Competent malaria vectors currently exist in southern Canada, including within this range several major urban centres, and conditions here have historically supported endemic malaria transmission. Climate change will increase the occurrence of temperature conditions suitable for malaria transmission in Canada, which, combined with trends in international travel, immigration, drug resistance, and inexperience in both clinical and laboratory diagnosis, may increase malaria incidence in Canada and permit sporadic autochthonous cases. This conclusion challenges the general assumption of negligible malaria risk in Canada with climate change. PMID:19277107

Incorporating climate change projections into riparian restoration planning and design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Laura G.; Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Beechie, Timothy J.; Collins, Mathias J.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2015-01-01

Climate change and associated changes in streamflow may alter riparian habitats substantially in coming decades. Riparian restoration provides opportunities to respond proactively to projected climate change effects, increase riparian ecosystem resilience to climate change, and simultaneously address effects of both climate change and other human disturbances. However, climate change may alter which restoration methods are most effective and which restoration goals can be achieved. Incorporating climate change into riparian restoration planning and design is critical to long-term restoration of desired community composition and ecosystem services. In this review, we discuss and provide examples of how climate change might be incorporated into restoration planning at the key stages of assessing the project context, establishing restoration goals and design criteria, evaluating design alternatives, and monitoring restoration outcomes. Restoration planners have access to numerous tools to predict future climate, streamflow, and riparian ecology at restoration sites. Planners can use those predictions to assess which species or ecosystem services will be most vulnerable under future conditions, and which sites will be most suitable for restoration. To accommodate future climate and streamflow change, planners may need to adjust methods for planting, invasive species control, channel and floodplain reconstruction, and water management. Given the considerable uncertainty in future climate and streamflow projections, riparian ecological responses, and effects on restoration outcomes, planners will need to consider multiple potential future scenarios, implement a variety of restoration methods, design projects with flexibility to adjust to future conditions, and plan to respond adaptively to unexpected change.

Development and Performance of Alternative Electricity Sector Pathways Subject to Multiple Climate and Water Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newmark, R. L.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Miara, A.; Cohen, S.; Macknick, J.; Sun, Y.; Corsi, F.; Fekete, B. M.; Tidwell, V. C.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts on air temperatures and water availability have the potential to alter future electricity sector investment decisions as well as the reliability and performance of the power sector. Different electricity sector configurations are more or less vulnerable to climate-induced changes. For example, once-through cooled thermal facilities are the most cost-effective and efficient technologies under cooler and wetter conditions, but can be substantially affected by and vulnerable to warmer and drier conditions. Non-thermal renewable technologies, such as PV and wind, are essentially "drought-proof" but have other integration and reliability challenges. Prior efforts have explored the impacts of climate change on electric sector development for a limited set of climate and electricity scenarios. Here, we provide a comprehensive suite of scenarios that evaluate how different electricity sector pathways could be affected by a range of climate and water resource conditions. We use four representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios under five global circulation models (GCM) as climate drivers to a Water Balance Model (WBM), to provide twenty separate future climate-water conditions. These climate-water conditions influence electricity sector development from present day to 2050 as determined using the Regional Energy Deployment Systems (ReEDS) model. Four unique electricity sector pathways will be considered, including business-as-usual, carbon cap, high renewable energy technology costs, and coal reliance scenarios. The combination of climate-water and electricity sector pathway scenarios leads to 80 potential future cases resulting in different national and regional electricity infrastructure configurations. The vulnerability of these configurations in relation to climate change (including in-stream thermal pollution impacts and environmental regulations) is evaluated using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model, providing quantitative estimates of the power sector's ability to meet loads, given changes in air temperature, water temperature, and water availability.

Factsheet: Climate Change and Harmful Algal Blooms

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change is predicted to change many environmental conditions that could affect the properties of fresh and marine waters. These changes could favor the growth of harmful algal blooms and habitat changes.

Assessing the effects of climate change on aquatic invasive species.

PubMed

Rahel, Frank J; Olden, Julian D

2008-06-01

Different components of global environmental change are typically studied and managed independently, although there is a growing recognition that multiple drivers often interact in complex and nonadditive ways. We present a conceptual framework and empirical review of the interactive effects of climate change and invasive species in freshwater ecosystems. Climate change is expected to result in warmer water temperatures, shorter duration of ice cover, altered streamflow patterns, increased salinization, and increased demand for water storage and conveyance structures. These changes will alter the pathways by which non-native species enter aquatic systems by expanding fish-culture facilities and water gardens to new areas and by facilitating the spread of species during floods. Climate change will influence the likelihood of new species becoming established by eliminating cold temperatures or winter hypoxia that currently prevent survival and by increasing the construction of reservoirs that serve as hotspots for invasive species. Climate change will modify the ecological impacts of invasive species by enhancing their competitive and predatory effects on native species and by increasing the virulence of some diseases. As a result of climate change, new prevention and control strategies such as barrier construction or removal efforts may be needed to control invasive species that currently have only moderate effects or that are limited by seasonally unfavorable conditions. Although most researchers focus on how climate change will increase the number and severity of invasions, some invasive coldwater species may be unable to persist under the new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the complex interactions between climate change and invasive species that will influence how aquatic ecosystems and their biota will respond to novel environmental conditions.

Attributing Climate Conditions for Stable Malaria Transmission to Human Activity in sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheldrake, L.; Mitchell, D.; Allen, M. R.

2015-12-01

Temperature and precipitation limit areas of stable malaria transmission, but the effects of climate change on the disease remain controversial. Previously, studies have not separated the influence of anthropogenic climate change and natural variability, despite being an essential step in the attribution of climate change impacts. Ensembles of 2900 simulations of regional climate in sub-Saharan Africa for the year 2013, one representing realistic conditions and the other how climate might have been in the absence of human influence, were used to force a P.falciparium climate suitability model developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa project. Strongest signals were detected in areas of unstable transmission, indicating their heightened sensitivity to climatic factors. Evidently, impacts of human-induced climate change were unevenly distributed: the probability of conditions being suitable for stable malaria transmission were substantially reduced (increased) in the Sahel (Greater Horn of Africa (GHOA), particularly in the Ethiopian and Kenyan highlands). The length of the transmission season was correspondingly shortened in the Sahel and extended in the GHOA, by 1 to 2 months, including in Kericho (Kenya), where the role of climate change in driving recent malaria occurrence is hotly contested. Human-induced warming was primarily responsible for positive anomalies in the GHOA, while reduced rainfall caused negative anomalies in the Sahel. The latter was associated with anthropogenic impacts on the West African Monsoon, but uncertainty in the RCM's ability to reproduce precipitation trends in the region weakens confidence in the result. That said, outputs correspond well with broad-scale changes in observed endemicity, implying a potentially important contribution of anthropogenic climate change to the malaria burden during the past century. Results support the health-framing of climate risk and help indicate hotspots of climate vulnerability, providing information to direct control interventions and investment, and allude to climate injustices. Extending methods, such as by using multiple climate and malaria models and investigating trends over longer timescales, would make results more generally applicable and improve their policy relevance.

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditionsTIC CONDITIONS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

The Effects of Climate Change on Cardiac Health.

PubMed

De Blois, Jonathan; Kjellstrom, Tord; Agewall, Stefan; Ezekowitz, Justin A; Armstrong, Paul W; Atar, Dan

2015-01-01

The earth's climate is changing and increasing ambient heat levels are emerging in large areas of the world. An important cause of this change is the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. Climate changes have a variety of negative effects on health, including cardiac health. People with pre-existing medical conditions such as cardiovascular disease (including heart failure), people carrying out physically demanding work and the elderly are particularly vulnerable. This review evaluates the evidence base for the cardiac health consequences of climate conditions, with particular reference to increasing heat exposure, and it also explores the potential further implications. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozdniakov, S.; Lykhina, N.

2010-03-01

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions Diffusive groundwater recharge is a vertical water flux through the water table, i.e. through the boundary between the unsaturated and saturated zones. This flux features temporal and spatial changes due to variations in the climatic conditions, landscape the state of vegetation, and the spatial variability of vadoze zone characteristics. In a changing climate the non-steady state series of climatic characteristics will affect on the groundwater recharge.. A well-tested approach to calculating water flux through the vadoze zone is the application of Richard’s equations for a heterogeneous one-domain porosity continuum with specially formulated atmospheric boundary conditions at the ground surface. In this approach the climatic parameters are reflected in upper boundary conditions, while the recharge series is the flux through the low boundary. In this work developed by authors code Surfbal that simulates water cycle at surface of topsoil to take into account the various condition of precipitation transformation at the surface in different seasons under different vegetation cover including snow accumulation in winter and melting in spring is used to generate upper boundary condition at surface of topsoil for world-wide known Hydrus-1D code (Simunek et al, 2008). To estimate the proposal climate change effect we performed Surfbal and Hydrus simulation using the steady state climatic condition and transient condition due to global warming on example of Moscow region, Russia. The following scenario of climate change in 21 century in Moscow region was selected: the annual temperature will increase on 4C during 100 year and annual precipitation will increase on 10% (Solomon et al, 2007). Within the year the maximum increasing of temperature and precipitation falls on winter time, while in middle of summer temperature will remain almost the same as observed now and monthly precipitation. For simulating climate input the weather generator LARSWG (Semenov and Barrow 1997) was trained for generation daily meteorological records for both steady state and transient climatic conditions and two 100 year of meteorological series of minimum and maximum of air temperature, solar radiation and precipitation were generated. The numerical experiment for studying of transient climate on groundwater was performed for typical vadoze zone parameters of western part of Moscow Artesian basin. As the result, the 100 years series of recharge were simulated. Examination of stochastic properties of simulated time-series and comparative analysis series for the transient and for the steady state conditions shows the trend of increasing of recharge in this region in transient climate. Analysis of daily and monthly simulated water balance shows that this increasing is result of winter snow melting and winter infiltration into thaw topsoil. This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research via grant 08-05-00720a REFERENCES Semenov M.A and Barrow E.M., 1997. Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 35:397-414 Šimůnek, J., M. Th. van Genuchten, and M. Šejna, 2008. Development and applications of the HYDRUS and STANMOD software packages, and related codes, Vadose Zone Journal, doi:10.2136/VZJ2007.0077, Special Issue "Vadose Zone Modeling", 7(2), 587-600. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Climate change impact on North Sea wave conditions: a consistent analysis of ten projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grabemann, Iris; Groll, Nikolaus; Möller, Jens; Weisse, Ralf

2015-02-01

Long-term changes in the mean and extreme wind wave conditions as they may occur in the course of anthropogenic climate change can influence and endanger human coastal and offshore activities. A set of ten wave climate projections derived from time slice and transient simulations of future conditions is analyzed to estimate the possible impact of anthropogenic climate change on mean and extreme wave conditions in the North Sea. This set includes different combinations of IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2, B2, A1B, and B1), global and regional models, and initial states. A consistent approach is used to provide a more robust assessment of expected changes and uncertainties. While the spatial patterns and the magnitude of the climate change signals vary, some robust features among the ten projections emerge: mean and severe wave heights tend to increase in the eastern parts of the North Sea towards the end of the twenty-first century in nine to ten projections, but the magnitude of the increase in extreme waves varies in the order of decimeters between these projections. For the western parts of the North Sea more than half of the projections suggest a decrease in mean and extreme wave heights. Comparing the different sources of uncertainties due to models, scenarios, and initial conditions, it can be inferred that the influence of the emission scenario on the climate change signal seems to be less important. Furthermore, the transient projections show strong multi-decadal fluctuations, and changes towards the end of the twenty-first century might partly be associated with internal variability rather than with systematic changes.

Simulating the Risk of Liver Fluke Infection using a Mechanistic Hydro-epidemiological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, Ludovica; Dunne, Toby; Rose, Hannah; Walker, Josephine; Morgan, Eric; Vickerman, Peter; Wagener, Thorsten

2016-04-01

Liver Fluke (Fasciola hepatica) is a common parasite found in livestock and responsible for considerable economic losses throughout the world. Risk of infection is strongly influenced by climatic and hydrological conditions, which characterise the host environment for parasite development and transmission. Despite on-going control efforts, increases in fluke outbreaks have been reported in recent years in the UK, and have been often attributed to climate change. Currently used fluke risk models are based on empirical relationships derived between historical climate and incidence data. However, hydro-climate conditions are becoming increasingly non-stationary due to climate change and direct anthropogenic impacts such as land use change, making empirical models unsuitable for simulating future risk. In this study we introduce a mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Liver Fluke, which explicitly simulates habitat suitability for disease development in space and time, representing the parasite life cycle in connection with key environmental conditions. The model is used to assess patterns of Liver Fluke risk for two catchments in the UK under current and potential future climate conditions. Comparisons are made with a widely used empirical model employing different datasets, including data from regional veterinary laboratories. Results suggest that mechanistic models can achieve adequate predictive ability and support adaptive fluke control strategies under climate change scenarios.

Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

2016-04-01

It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on spatiotemporal variability of specific discharge in a boreal region, Abstract #H52B-07 presented at 2014 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 15-19 Dec. [Available at http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.H52B..07K, last accessed 11 Jan 2016]. Teutschbein, C., T. Grabs, R.H. Karlsen, H. Laudon and K. Bishop (2015). Hydrological Response to Changing Climate Conditions: Spatial Streamflow Variability in the Boreal Region, Water Resour Res, doi: 10.1002/2015WR017337. [Available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015WR017337/abstract, last accessed 11 Jan 2016].

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bouska, Kristen; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Lant, Christopher; Schoof, Justin

2018-01-01

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

Evaluating the potential for justice in urban climate change adaptation in the U.S.: The role of institutions

EPA Science Inventory

Global climate change requires that cities adapt to new conditions such as changing precipitation patterns, temperature extremes, and frequency of natural disasters. Adapting cities to climate change will have consequences for urban populations as it requires a reconfiguration of...

Ecoclimatic indicators to study climate suitability of areas for the cultivation of specific crops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, J.; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, I.; Cufi, J.; Huard, F.; Launay, M.; Ripoche, D.; Graux, A.; deNoblet, N.

2013-12-01

Climatic conditions play a fundamental role in the suitability of geographical areas for cropping. In the context of climate change, we could expect changes in overall climatic conditions and so, on the suitability for cropping. Therefore, assessing the future climate suitability of areas for cropping is decisive for anticipating agriculture in a given area. Moreover, it is crucial to have access to the split up information concerning the effect of climate on the achievement of the main ecophysiological processes and cultural practices taking place during the crop cycle. In this way, stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions, such as changes in cultural practices or development of new varieties for example. We proposed an aggregation tool of ecoclimatic indicators to design evaluation trees of climate suitability of areas for cropping, GETARI (Generic Evaluation Tool of Ecoclimatic Indicators). It calculates an overall climate suitability index at the annual scale, from a designed evaluation tree. This aggregation tool allows to characterize climate suitability according to crop ecophysiology, grain/fruit quality or crop management. GETARI proposes the major ecophysiological processes and cultural practices taking place during phenological periods, together with the climatic effects that are known to affect their achievement. The climatic effects on the ecophysiological processes (or cultural practices) during phenological periods are captured by the ecoclimatic indicators, which are agroclimatic indicators calculated over phenological periods. They give information about crop response to climate through ecophysiological or agronomic thresholds. Those indices of suitability are normalized and aggregated according to aggregation rules in order to compute an overall climate index. In order to illustrate how GETARI can be used, we designed evaluation trees in order to study the climate suitability for maize cropping regarding ecophysiology, for wheat cropping regarding its management and for grape cropping regarding its quality. The designed evaluation trees were developed in accordance with expert assessment and were applied in some past climatic conditions in France to verify their consistence. To conclude, the use of indicators does not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide information about suitability of geographical areas for cropping in future climatic conditions and can enable to minimize the risk of crop failure. This work is carried out under the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe).

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, James W. C.; Alley, Richard B.; Archer, David E.; Barnosky, Anthony D.; Dunlea, Edward; Foley, Jonathan; Fu, Rong; Holland, Marika M.; Lozier, M. Susan; Schmitt, Johanna; Smith, Laurence C.; Sugihara, George; Thompson, David W. J.; Weaver, Andrew J.; Wofsy, Steven C.

2014-05-01

Levels of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are exceeding levels recorded in the past millions of years, and thus climate is being forced beyond the range of the recent geological era. Lacking concerted action by the world's nations, it is clear that the future climate will be warmer, sea levels will rise, global rainfall patterns will change, and ecosystems will be altered. However, there is still uncertainty about how we will arrive at that future climate state. Although many projections of future climatic conditions have predicted steadily changing conditions giving the impression that communities have time to gradually adapt, the scientific community has been paying increasing attention to the possibility that at least some changes will be abrupt, perhaps crossing a threshold or "tipping point" to change so quickly that there will be little time to react. This presentation will synopsize the new US National Research Council Report, Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, highlighting areas of increased and decreased concern, as well as areas of new concern. Emphasis is placed on not only abrupt change in physical climate, but on abrupt changes in human and natural systems that can occur as a result of a slowly changing climate. The report calls for action now on an abrupt change early warning system (ACEWS) if societies are to be resilient to climate change.

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

2016-03-01

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary study was to address the possible causal relationships between climatic and socio-economic change and to assess the resilience of the Byzantine socio-economic system in the context of climate change impacts.

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

2016-04-01

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary study was to address the possible causal relationships between climatic and socio-economic change and to assess the resilience of the Byzantine socio-economic system in the context of climate change impacts.

78 FR 56202 - Ecological Restoration Policy

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-12

... natural disturbances, and uncertainty related to climate and other environmental change. On September 22... environmental conditions, such as those driven by a changing climate and increasing human uses. Restoration is... regimes; and likely future environments resulting from climate change and increasing human uses. Although...

Climate change hampers endangered species through intensified moisture-related plant stresses (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartholomeus, R.; Witte, J.; van Bodegom, P.; Dam, J. V.; Aerts, R.

2010-12-01

With recent climate change, extremes in meteorological conditions are forecast and observed to increase globally, and to affect vegetation composition. More prolonged dry periods will alternate with more intensive rainfall events, both within and between years, which will change soil moisture dynamics. In temperate climates, soil moisture, in concert with nutrient availability and soil acidity, is the most important environmental filter in determining local plant species composition, as it determines the availability of both oxygen and water to plant roots. These resources are indispensable for meeting the physiological demands of plants. The consequences of climate change for our natural environment are among the most pressing issues of our time. The international research community is beginning to realise that climate extremes may be more powerful drivers of vegetation change and species extinctions than slow-and-steady climatic changes, but the causal mechanisms of such changes are presently unknown. The roles of amplitudes in water availability as drivers of vegetation change have been particularly elusive owing to the lack of integration of the key variables involved. Here we show that the combined effect of increased rainfall variability, temperature and atmospheric CO2-concentration will lead to an increased variability in both wet and dry extremes in stresses faced by plants (oxygen and water stress, respectively). We simulated these plant stresses with a novel, process-based approach, incorporating in detail the interacting processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. In order to quantify oxygen and water stress with causal measures, we focused on interacting meteorological, soil physical, microbial, and plant physiological processes in the soil-plant-atmosphere system. As both the supply and demand of oxygen and water depend strongly on the prevailing meteorological conditions, both oxygen and water stress were calculated dynamically in time to capture climate change effects. We demonstrate that increased rainfall variability in interaction with predicted changes in temperature and CO2, affects soil moisture conditions and plant oxygen and water demands such, that both oxygen stress and water stress will intensify due to climate change. Moreover, these stresses will increasingly coincide, causing variable stress conditions. These variable stress conditions were found to decrease future habitat suitability, especially for plant species that are presently endangered. The future existence of such species is thus at risk by climate change, which has direct implications for policies to maintain endangered species, as applied by international nature management organisations (e.g. IUCN). Our integrated mechanistic analysis of two stresses combined, which has never been done so far, reveals large impacts of climate change on species extinctions and thereby on biodiversity.

Changes in rainfed and irrigated crop yield response to climate in the western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Troy, T. J.

2018-06-01

As the global population increases and the climate changes, ensuring a secure food supply is increasingly important. One strategy is irrigation, which allows for crops to be grown outside their optimal climate growing regions and which buffers against climate variability. Although irrigation is a positive climate adaptation mechanism for agriculture, it has a potentially negative effect on water resources as it can lead to groundwater depletion and diminished surface water supplies. This study quantifies how crop yields are affected by climate variability and extremes and the impact of irrigation on crop yield increases under various growing-season climate conditions. To do this, we use historical climate data and county-level rainfed and irrigated crop yields for maize, soybean, winter and spring wheat over the US to analyze the relationship between climate, crop yields, and irrigation. We find that there are optimal climates, specific to each crop, where irrigation provides a benefit and other conditions where irrigation proves to have marginal, if any, benefits. Furthermore, the relationship between crop yields and climate has changed over the last decades, with a changing sensitivity in the relationship of soybean and winter wheat yields to certain climate variables, like crop reference evapotranspiration. These two conclusions have important implications for agricultural and water resource system planning, as it implies there are more optimal climate conditions where irrigation is particularly productive and regions where irrigation should be reconsidered as there is not a significant agricultural benefit and the water could be used more productively.

Eco-hydrologic model cascades: Simulating land use and climate change impacts on hydrology, hydraulics and habitats for fish and macroinvertebrates.

PubMed

Guse, Björn; Kail, Jochem; Radinger, Johannes; Schröder, Maria; Kiesel, Jens; Hering, Daniel; Wolter, Christian; Fohrer, Nicola

2015-11-15

Climate and land use changes affect the hydro- and biosphere at different spatial scales. These changes alter hydrological processes at the catchment scale, which impact hydrodynamics and habitat conditions for biota at the river reach scale. In order to investigate the impact of large-scale changes on biota, a cascade of models at different scales is required. Using scenario simulations, the impact of climate and land use change can be compared along the model cascade. Such a cascade of consecutively coupled models was applied in this study. Discharge and water quality are predicted with a hydrological model at the catchment scale. The hydraulic flow conditions are predicted by hydrodynamic models. The habitat suitability under these hydraulic and water quality conditions is assessed based on habitat models for fish and macroinvertebrates. This modelling cascade was applied to predict and compare the impacts of climate- and land use changes at different scales to finally assess their effects on fish and macroinvertebrates. Model simulations revealed that magnitude and direction of change differed along the modelling cascade. Whilst the hydrological model predicted a relevant decrease of discharge due to climate change, the hydraulic conditions changed less. Generally, the habitat suitability for fish decreased but this was strongly species-specific and suitability even increased for some species. In contrast to climate change, the effect of land use change on discharge was negligible. However, land use change had a stronger impact on the modelled nitrate concentrations affecting the abundances of macroinvertebrates. The scenario simulations for the two organism groups illustrated that direction and intensity of changes in habitat suitability are highly species-dependent. Thus, a joined model analysis of different organism groups combined with the results of hydrological and hydrodynamic models is recommended to assess the impact of climate and land use changes on river ecosystems. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change.

PubMed

Duputié, Anne; Rutschmann, Alexis; Ronce, Ophélie; Chuine, Isabelle

2015-08-01

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long-lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process-based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

2018-01-01

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

Legacy effects of simulated short-term climate change on ammonia oxidisers, denitrifiers, and nitrous oxide emissions in an acid soil.

PubMed

Xu, Xiaoya; Liu, Xiaorui; Li, Yong; Ran, Yu; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; He, Yan; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

2017-04-01

Although the effect of simulated climate change on nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions and on associated microbial communities has been reported, it is not well understood if these effects are short-lived or long-lasting. Here, we conducted a field study to determine the interactive effects of simulated warmer and drier conditions on nitrifier and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions in an acidic soil and the longevity of the effects. A warmer (+2.3 °C) and drier climate (-7.4% soil moisture content) was created with greenhouses. The variation of microbial population abundance and community structure of ammonia-oxidizing archaea (AOA), bacteria (AOB), and denitrifiers (nirK/S, nosZ) were determined using real-time PCR and high-throughput sequencing. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions under the greenhouse following urea application significantly increased N 2 O emissions. There was also a moderate legacy effect on the N 2 O emissions when the greenhouses were removed in the urea treatment, although this effect only lasted a short period of time (about 60 days). The simulated climate change conditions changed the composition of AOA with the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage increasing significantly. The abundance of all the functional denitrifier genes decreased significantly under the simulated climate change conditions and the legacy effect, after the removal of greenhouses, significantly increased the abundance of AOB, AOA (mainly the species affiliated to marine group 1.1a-associated lineage), and nirK and nosZ genes in the urea-treated soil. In general, the effect of the simulated climate change was short-lived, with the denitrifier communities being able to return to ambient levels after a period of adaptation to ambient conditions. Therefore, the legacy effect of simulated short-time climate change conditions on the ammonia oxidizer and denitrifier communities and N 2 O emissions were temporary and once the conditions were removed, the microbial communities were able to adapt to the ambient conditions.

Future scenarios for viticultural bioclimatic indices in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santos, João.; Malheiro, Aureliano C.; Fraga, Helder; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2010-05-01

Winemaking has a predominant economic, social and environmental relevance in several European countries. Studies addressing the influence of climate variability and change in viticulture are particularly pertinent, as climate is one of the main conditioning factors of this activity. In this context, bioclimatic indices are a useful zoning tool, allowing the description of the suitability of a particular region for wine production. In this study, we compute climatic indices (concerning to thermal and hydrological conditions) for Europe, characterize regions with different viticultural aptitude, and assess possible variations in these regions under a future climate conditions using a state-of-the-art regional climate model. The indices are calculated from climatic variables (mostly daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation) obtained from the NCEP reanalysis dataset. Then, the same indices are calculated for present and future climate conditions using data from the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (Consortium for Small Scale Modelling - Climate Limited-area Modelling). Maps of theses indices for recent-past periods (1961-2008) and for the SRES A1B scenario are considered in order to identify significant changes in their patterns. Results show that climate change is projected to have a significant negative impact in wine quality by increased dryness and cumulative thermal effects during growing seasons in Southern European regions (e.g. Portugal, Spain and Italy). These changes represent an important constraint to grapevine growth and development, making crucial adaptation/mitigation strategies to be adopted. On the other hand, regions of western and central Europe (e.g. southern Britain, northern France and Germany) will benefit from this scenario both in wine quality, and in new potential areas for viticulture. This approach provides a macro-characterization of European areas where grapevines may preferentially grow, as well as their projected changes under human-induced forcing. As such, it can be a useful tool for viticultural zoning in a changing climate.

The full spectrum of climate change adaptation: testing an analytical framework in Tyrolean mountain agriculture (Austria).

PubMed

Grüneis, Heidelinde; Penker, Marianne; Höferl, Karl-Michael

2016-01-01

Our scientific view on climate change adaptation (CCA) is unsatisfying in many ways: It is often dominated by a modernistic perspective of planned pro-active adaptation, with a selective focus on measures directly responding to climate change impacts and thus it is far from real-life conditions of those who are actually affected by climate change. Farmers have to simultaneously adapt to multiple changes. Therefore, also empirical climate change adaptation research needs a more integrative perspective on real-life climate change adaptations. This also has to consider "hidden" adaptations, which are not explicitly and directly motivated by CCA but actually contribute to the sector's adaptability to climate change. The aim of the present study is to develop and test an analytic framework that contributes to a broader understanding of CCA and to bridge the gap between scientific expertise and practical action. The framework distinguishes three types of CCA according to their climate related motivations: explicit adaptations, multi-purpose adaptations, and hidden adaptations. Although agriculture is among the sectors that are most affected by climate change, results from the case study of Tyrolean mountain agriculture show that climate change is ranked behind other more pressing "real-life-challenges" such as changing agricultural policies or market conditions. We identified numerous hidden adaptations which make a valuable contribution when dealing with climate change impacts. We conclude that these hidden adaptations have not only to be considered to get an integrative und more realistic view on CCA; they also provide a great opportunity for linking adaptation strategies to farmers' realities.

Assessment of Cropland Water and Nitrogen Balance from Climate Change in Korea Peninsular

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, C. H.; Song, C.; Kim, T.; Lee, W. K.; Jeon, S. W.

2015-12-01

If crop growth is based on cropland productivity, the changes are due to changes in water and nitrogen balance from climate. In this study, order to estimation the change in cropland water and nitrogen balance in Korea peninsular using meteorological data observed last 30 years(1984-2013y). And we used soil, topography and management data about cropland. So as to estimating water and nitrogen variables, we used to the GIS based EPIC model that is major crop model in agro-ecosystem modelling field. Among the much of water and nitrogen variables, we selected to evapotranspiration, runoff, precipitation, nitrification, N lost, N contents and denitrification for this analysis. This selected variables associate with cropland water and nitrogen balance.First result, we can found the water balance changes in Korea peninsular, especially South Korea better condition than North Korea. In North Korea, evapotranspiration and precipitation result were lower than South Korea, but runoff result was bigger than South Korea. And we got a result about nitrogen balance changes in Korea peninsular from climate. In spatially, South and North Korea showed to similar condition on nitrogen balance in whole period. But in temporally, showed negative trends as time goes on, it caused by climate change. Overall condition of water and nitrogen balance on last 30 years in Korea peninsular, South Korea showed better condition than North Korea. Water and nitrogen balance change means have to be changed on agriculture management action, such as irrigation and fertilizer. In future period, climate change will cause a large effect to cropland water and nitrogen balance in mid-latitude area, so we have to prepare the change of this field for wise adaptation by climate change.

Novel Modeling Tools for Propagating Climate Change Variability and Uncertainty into Hydrodynamic Forecasts

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding impacts of climate change on hydrodynamic processes and ecosystem response within the Great Lakes is an important and challenging task. Variability in future climate conditions, uncertainty in rainfall-runoff model forecasts, the potential for land use change, and t...

Modeling the influence of climate change on watershed systems: Adaptation through targeted practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudula, John; Randhir, Timothy O.

2016-10-01

Climate change may influence hydrologic processes of watersheds (IPCC, 2013) and increased runoff may cause flooding, eroded stream banks, widening of stream channels, increased pollutant loading, and consequently impairment of aquatic life. The goal of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrologic processes and to evaluate scale and effectiveness of management practices for adaptation. We simulate baseline watershed conditions using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) simulation model to examine the possible effects of changing climate on watershed processes. We also simulate the effects of adaptation and mitigation through specific best management strategies for various climatic scenarios. With continuing low-flow conditions and vulnerability to climate change, the Ipswich watershed is the focus of this study. We quantify fluxes in runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, sediment load, and nutrient concentrations under baseline and climate change scenarios (near and far future). We model adaptation options for mitigating climate effects on watershed processes using bioretention/raingarden Best Management Practices (BMPs). It was observed that climate change has a significant impact on watershed runoff and carefully designed and maintained BMPs at subwatershed scale can be effective in mitigating some of the problems related to stormwater runoff. Policy options include implementation of BMPs through education and incentives for scale-dependent and site specific bioretention units/raingardens to increase the resilience of the watershed system to current and future climate change.

Climate change impacts on main agricultural activities in the Oltenia Plain (Romania)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitrica, B.; Mateescu, E.; Dragota, C.; Busuioc, A.; Grigorescu, I.; Popovici, A.

2012-04-01

Understanding the key drivers of agriculture in relation to climate change as well as their interrelationship with land management decisions and policies, one may be able to project future agricultural productions under certain economic, environmental, and social scenarios in order to minimize their negative impacts. The paper is aiming to stress upon the importance of modelling the potential impact of climate change on crop production, particularly under the current conditions when natural resources and food supplies are shortening in many parts of the world. Under the given circumstances, in assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Oltenia Plain, the authors used a simulation model CERES (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis), developed as a predictive and deterministic model, used for basic and applied research on the effects of climate (thermal regime, water stress) and management (fertilization practices, irrigation) on the growth and yield of different crops. In assessing the impact of climate change on maize and autumn wheat crops two applications of CERES model were used: CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize overlapping two regional climatic scenarios for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods. These models describe, based on daily data the basic biophysical processes which take place at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface as a response to the variability of different processes such as: photosynthesis, specific phonological phases, evapotranspiration, water dynamics in soil etc. Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under the two regional climatic scenarios (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) will reveal their potential consequences on the main agricultural crops in the Oltenia Plain (autumn wheat and maize) depending on the interaction between local climatic conditions, the effect rising CO2 on photosynthesis and the genetical type of crops. Therefore, the autumn wheat benefits from the interaction between the rise of CO2 and air temperature while maize is more vulnerable to climate change, especially to hot and dry RCMs/2071-2100/SRES A1B scenario. Against the current climatic conditions, temperature rise foreseen by both scenarios brings about a decrease of the vegetation period. Under these conditions, the rising of atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) during the two climate change projected intervals have a positive effect on photosynthesis, which might lead to increase yields, thus counteracting the negative effect of shortening the vegetation period. Under the same climate change conditions, the maize yield shrinks, but more acute in the case of RCMs/2071-2100 scenario due to temperature raise which trigger shortening of the vegetation period coupled with water stress, especially during the flowering and yield formation interval (May-August).

Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

PubMed

Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

2014-08-01

This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S

Treesearch

James M. Vose; David L. Peterson; Toral Patel-Weynand

2012-01-01

This report is a scientific assessment of the current condition and likely future condition of forest resources in the United States relative to climatic variability and change. It serves as the U.S. Forest Service forest sector technical report for the National Climate Assessment and includes descriptions of key regional issues and examples of a risk-based framework...

Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season.

PubMed

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-03-01

Climate, climate change and tourism all interact. Part of the public discussion about climate change focusses on the tourism sector, with direct and indirect impacts being of equally high relevance. Climate and tourism are closely linked. Thus, climate is a very decisive factor in choices both of destination and of type of journey (active holidays, wellness, and city tours) in the tourism sector. However, whether choices about destinations or types of trip will alter with climate change is difficult to predict. Future climates can be simulated and projected, and the tendencies of climate parameters can be estimated using global and regional climate models. In this paper, the focus is on climate change in the mountainous regions of southwest Germany - the Black Forest. The Black Forest is one of the low mountain ranges where both winter and summer tourism are vulnerable to climate change due to its southern location; the strongest climatic changes are expected in areas covering the south and southwest of Germany. Moreover, as the choice of destination is highly dependent on good weather, a climatic assessment for tourism is essential. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate climatic changes in mountainous regions during summer, especially for tourism and recreation. The assessment method was based on human-biometeorology as well as tourism-climatologic approaches. Regional climate simulations based on the regional climate model REMO were used for tourism-related climatic analyses. Emission scenarios A1B and B1 were considered for the time period 2021 to 2050, compared to the 30-year base period of 1971-2000, particularly for the warm period of the year, defined here as the months of March-November. In this study, we quantified the frequency, but not the means, of climate parameters. The study results show that global and regional warming is reflected in an increase in annual mean air temperature, especially in autumn. Changes in the spring show a slight negative trend, which is in line with the trend of a decrease in physiologically equivalent temperature as well as in thermal comfort conditions. Due to the rising air temperature, heat stress as well as sultry conditions are projected to become more frequent, affecting human health and recreation, especially at lower lying altitudes. The tops of the mountains and higher elevated areas still have the advantage of offering comfortable climatic conditions.

Facing climate change in forests and fields

Treesearch

Amy Daniels; Nancy Shaw; Dave Peterson; Keith Nislow; Monica Tomosy; Mary Rowland

2014-01-01

As a growing body of science shows, climate change impacts on wildlife are already profound - from shifting species' ranges and altering the synchronicity of food sources to changing the availability of water. Such impacts are only expected to increase in the coming decades. As climate change shapes complex, interwoven ecological processes, novel conditions and...

Application of synthetic scenarios to address water resource concerns: A management-guided case study from the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

McAfee, Stephanie A.; Pederson, Gregory T.; Woodhouse, Connie A.; McCabe, Gregory

2017-01-01

Water managers are increasingly interested in better understanding and planning for projected resource impacts from climate change. In this management-guided study, we use a very large suite of synthetic climate scenarios in a statistical modeling framework to simultaneously evaluate how (1) average temperature and precipitation changes, (2) initial basin conditions, and (3) temporal characteristics of the input climate data influence water-year flow in the Upper Colorado River. The results here suggest that existing studies may underestimate the degree of uncertainty in future streamflow, particularly under moderate temperature and precipitation changes. However, we also find that the relative severity of future flow projections within a given climate scenario can be estimated with simple metrics that characterize the input climate data and basin conditions. These results suggest that simple testing, like the analyses presented in this paper, may be helpful in understanding differences between existing studies or in identifying specific conditions for physically based mechanistic modeling. Both options could reduce overall cost and improve the efficiency of conducting climate change impacts studies.

Responses of Basal Melting of Antarctic Ice Shelves to the Climatic Forcing of the Last Glacial Maximum and CO2 Doubling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abe-Ouchi, A.; Obase, T.

2017-12-01

Basal melting of the Antarctic ice shelves is an important factor in determining the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet. This study used the climatic outputs of an atmosphere?ocean general circulation model to force a circumpolar ocean model that resolves ice shelf cavity circulation to investigate the response of Antarctic ice shelf melting to different climatic conditions, i.e., to an increase (doubling) of CO2 and the Last Glacial Maximum conditions. We also conducted sensitivity experiments to investigate the role of surface atmospheric change, which strongly affects sea ice production, and the change of oceanic lateral boundary conditions. We found that the rate of change of basal melt due to climate warming is much greater (by an order of magnitude) than due to cooling. This is mainly because the intrusion of warm water onto the continental shelves, linked to sea ice production and climate change, is crucial in determining the basal melt rate of many ice shelves. Sensitivity experiments showed that changes of atmospheric heat flux and ocean temperature are both important for warm and cold climates. The offshore wind change together with atmospheric heat flux change strongly affected the production of sea ice and high-density water, preventing warmer water approaching the ice shelves under a colder climate. These results reflect the importance of both water mass formation in the Antarctic shelf seas and subsurface ocean temperature in understanding the long-term response to climate change of the melting of Antarctic ice shelves.

Climate change and dengue: a critical and systematic review of quantitative modelling approaches

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Many studies have found associations between climatic conditions and dengue transmission. However, there is a debate about the future impacts of climate change on dengue transmission. This paper reviewed epidemiological evidence on the relationship between climate and dengue with a focus on quantitative methods for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on global dengue transmission. Methods A literature search was conducted in October 2012, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search focused on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1991 through October 2012. Results Sixteen studies met the inclusion criteria and most studies showed that the transmission of dengue is highly sensitive to climatic conditions, especially temperature, rainfall and relative humidity. Studies on the potential impacts of climate change on dengue indicate increased climatic suitability for transmission and an expansion of the geographic regions at risk during this century. A variety of quantitative modelling approaches were used in the studies. Several key methodological issues and current knowledge gaps were identified through this review. Conclusions It is important to assemble spatio-temporal patterns of dengue transmission compatible with long-term data on climate and other socio-ecological changes and this would advance projections of dengue risks associated with climate change. PMID:24669859

National climate assessment technical report on the impacts of climate and land use and land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul; Patel-Weynand, Toral; Karstensen, Krista; Beckendorf, Kari; Bliss, Norman; Carleton, Andrew

2012-01-01

This technical report responds to the recognition by the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) and the National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the importance of understanding how land use and land cover (LULC) affects weather and climate variability and change and how that variability and change affects LULC. Current published, peer-reviewed, scientific literature and supporting data from both existing and original sources forms the basis for this report's assessment of the current state of knowledge regarding land change and climate interactions. The synthesis presented herein documents how current and future land change may alter environment processes and in turn, how those conditions may affect both land cover and land use by specifically investigating, * The primary contemporary trends in land use and land cover, * The land-use and land-cover sectors and regions which are most affected by weather and climate variability,* How land-use practices are adapting to climate change, * How land-use and land-cover patterns and conditions are affecting weather and climate, and * The key elements of an ongoing Land Resources assessment. These findings present information that can be used to better assess land change and climate interactions in order to better assess land management and adaptation strategies for future environmental change and to assist in the development of a framework for an ongoing national assessment.

The subtle role of climate change on population genetic structure in Canada lynx.

PubMed

Row, Jeffrey R; Wilson, Paul J; Gomez, Celine; Koen, Erin L; Bowman, Jeff; Thornton, Daniel; Murray, Dennis L

2014-07-01

Anthropogenically driven climatic change is expected to reshape global patterns of species distribution and abundance. Given recent links between genetic variation and environmental patterns, climate change may similarly impact genetic population structure, but we lack information on the spatial and mechanistic underpinnings of genetic-climate associations. Here, we show that current genetic variability of Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis) is strongly correlated with a winter climate gradient (i.e. increasing snow depth and winter precipitation from west-to-east) across the Pacific-North American (PNO) to North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic systems. This relationship was stronger than isolation by distance and not explained by landscape variables or changes in abundance. Thus, these patterns suggest that individuals restricted dispersal across the climate boundary, likely in the absence of changes in habitat quality. We propose habitat imprinting on snow conditions as one possible explanation for this unusual phenomenon. Coupling historical climate data with future projections, we also found increasingly diverging snow conditions between the two climate systems. Based on genetic simulations using projected climate data (2041-2070), we predicted that this divergence could lead to a threefold increase in genetic differentiation, potentially leading to isolated east-west populations of lynx in North America. Our results imply that subtle genetic structure can be governed by current climate and that substantive genetic differentiation and related ecological divergence may arise from changing climate patterns. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Robust changes in the socio-climate risk over CONUS by mid 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.; Batibeniz, F.; Alifa, M.; Pagán, B. R.; Bonds, B. W.; Pal, J. S.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Preston, B. L.

2017-12-01

Using high-resolution near-term ensemble projections of hydro-climatic changes, we investigate impacts of climate change on natural and human systems across the CONUS. Climate projections are based a hybrid downscaling approach where a combination of regional and hydrological models are used to downscales 11 Global Climate Models from the 5th phase of Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project to 4km horizontal grid spacing for 41 years in the historical period (1965-2005) and 41 years in the near-term future period (2010-2050) under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Should emissions continue to rise, climatic changes will likely intensify the regional hydrological cycle over CONUS through the acceleration of the historical trends in cold, warm and wet extremes. Our results show robust changes in the occurrence of severe weather conditions and in the likelihood of ice, freezing rain and snowstorms that may have disruptive impact on large human population across the U.S. More summer like conditions will also drive increase in cooling demands and a net increase in the energy consumption over many regions. We further use an integrated vulnerability index that combines human exposure to different climate extremes (hot, cold, wet and dry) and changes in socioeconomic pathways (due to changes in population and income levels), to reveal that future exposure to potentially damaging climatic conditions will likely increase manifold for population living in major urban centers in California, Texas, Florida, Michigan, Illinois and Northeast. With the current trajectory of emissions, these results warrant that a large human population across the U.S. may feel the impacts of climate change within its lifespan.

Vulnerability Assessment of Natural Disasters for Small and Mid-Sized Streams due to Climate Change and Stream Improvement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, D.; Jun, H. D.; Kim, S.

2012-04-01

Vulnerability assessment plays an important role in drawing up climate change adaptation plans. Although there are some studies on broad vulnerability assessment in Korea, there have been very few studies to develop and apply locally focused and specific sector-oriented climate change vulnerability indicators. Especially, there has seldom been any study to investigate the effect of an adaptation project on assessing the vulnerability status to climate change for fundamental local governments. In order to relieve adverse effects of climate change, Korean government has performed the project of the Major Four Rivers (Han, Geum, Nakdong and Yeongsan river) Restoration since 2008. It is expected that water level in main stream of 4 rivers will be dropped through this project, but flood effect will be mainly occurred in small and mid-sized streams which flows in main stream. Hence, we examined how much the project of the major four rivers restoration relieves natural disasters. Conceptual framework of vulnerability-resilience index to climate change for the Korean fundamental local governments is defined as a function of climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Then, statistical data on scores of proxy variables assumed to comprise climate change vulnerability for local governments are collected. Proxy variables and estimated temporary weights of them are selected by surveying a panel of experts using Delphi method, and final weights are determined by modified Entropy method. Developed vulnerability-resilience index was applied to Korean fundamental local governments and it is calculated under each scenario as follows. (1) Before the major four rivers restoration, (2) 100 years after represented climate change condition without the major four rivers restoration, (3) After the major four rivers restoration without representing climate change (this means present climate condition) and (4) After the major four rivers restoration and 100 years after represented climate change condition. In the results of calculated vulnerability-resilience index of each scenario, it can be noticed that vulnerability of watersheds which are located near main stream of four rivers is alleviated, but because of climate change, vulnerability is getting high in most watersheds. Also, considering future climate change and river restoration, vulnerability of several watersheds is relieved by river restoration. Acknowledges This work was funded by the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in Korea Program under Grant NEMA-10-NH-04.

Climate change and disaster management.

PubMed

O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

2006-03-01

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

PubMed

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape.

PubMed

Kahilainen, Aapo; van Nouhuys, Saskya; Schulz, Torsti; Saastamoinen, Marjo

2018-04-23

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long-term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life-history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics. © 2018 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Social and economic impacts of climate.

PubMed

Carleton, Tamma A; Hsiang, Solomon M

2016-09-09

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions-such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms-influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent "adaptation gaps," current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petrie, M.D.; Bradford, John B.; Hubbard, R.M.; Lauenroth, W.K.; Andrews, Caitlin; Schlaepfer, D.R.

2017-01-01

The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key environmental conditions for ponderosa pine, a key dryland forest species. We integrated meteorological data and climate projections for 47 ponderosa pine forest sites across the western United States, and evaluated RP using an ecosystem water balance model. Our primary goal was to contrast conditions supporting regeneration among historical, mid-21st century and late-21st century time frames. Future climatic conditions supported 50% higher RP in 2020–2059 relative to 1910–2014. As temperatures increased more substantially in 2060–2099, seedling survival decreased, RP declined by 50%, and the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58%. Thus, climate change may initially support higher RP and increase the likelihood of successful regeneration events, yet will ultimately reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate climate support of regeneration. Our results suggest that climate change alone may begin to restrict the persistence and expansion of dryland forests by limiting seedling survival in the late 21st century.

Climate change may restrict dryland forest regeneration in the 21st century.

PubMed

Petrie, M D; Bradford, J B; Hubbard, R M; Lauenroth, W K; Andrews, C M; Schlaepfer, D R

2017-06-01

The persistence and geographic expansion of dryland forests in the 21st century will be influenced by how climate change supports the demographic processes associated with tree regeneration. Yet, the way that climate change may alter regeneration is unclear. We developed a quantitative framework that estimates forest regeneration potential (RP) as a function of key environmental conditions for ponderosa pine, a key dryland forest species. We integrated meteorological data and climate projections for 47 ponderosa pine forest sites across the western United States, and evaluated RP using an ecosystem water balance model. Our primary goal was to contrast conditions supporting regeneration among historical, mid-21st century and late-21st century time frames. Future climatic conditions supported 50% higher RP in 2020-2059 relative to 1910-2014. As temperatures increased more substantially in 2060-2099, seedling survival decreased, RP declined by 50%, and the frequency of years with very low RP increased from 25% to 58%. Thus, climate change may initially support higher RP and increase the likelihood of successful regeneration events, yet will ultimately reduce average RP and the frequency of years with moderate climate support of regeneration. Our results suggest that climate change alone may begin to restrict the persistence and expansion of dryland forests by limiting seedling survival in the late 21st century. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Communicating uncertainty in circulation aspects of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shepherd, Ted

2017-04-01

The usual way of representing uncertainty in climate change is to define a likelihood range of possible futures, conditioned on a particular pathway of greenhouse gas concentrations (RCPs). Typically these likelihood ranges are derived from multi-model ensembles. However, there is no obvious basis for treating such ensembles as probability distributions. Moreover, for aspects of climate related to atmospheric circulation, such an approach generally leads to large uncertainty and low confidence in projections. Yet this does not mean that the associated climate risks are small. We therefore need to develop suitable ways of communicating climate risk whilst acknowledging the uncertainties. This talk will outline an approach based on conditioning the purely thermodynamic aspects of climate change, concerning which there is comparatively high confidence, on circulation-related aspects, and treating the latter through non-probabilistic storylines.

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard

2017-12-11

The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background: The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. Objective: We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. Methods: We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Results: Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. Conclusion: We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016–2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models’ potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370 PMID:29233795

Ecoclimatic indicators to study crop suitability in present and future climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caubel, Julie; Garcia de Cortazar Atauri, Inaki; Huard, Frédéric; Launay, Marie; Ripoche, Dominique; Gouache, David; Bancal, Marie-Odile; Graux, Anne-Isabelle; De Noblet, Nathalie

2013-04-01

Climate change is expected to affect both regional and global food production through changes in overall agroclimatic conditions. It is therefore necessary to develop simple tools of crop suitability diagnosis in a given area so that stakeholders can envisage land use adaptations under climate change conditions. The most common way to investigate potential impacts of climate on the evolution of agrosystems is to make use of an array of agroclimatic indicators, which provide synthetic information derived from climatic variables and calculated within fixed periods (i.e. January first - 31th July). However, the information obtained during these periods does not enable to take account of the plant response to climate. In this work, we present some results of the research program ORACLE (Opportunities and Risks of Agrosystems & forests in response to CLimate, socio-economic and policy changEs in France (and Europe). We proposed a suite of relevant ecoclimatic indicators, based on temperature and rainfall, in order to evaluate crop suitability for both present and new climatic conditions. Ecoclimatic indicators are agroclimatic indicators (e.g., grain heat stress) calculated during specific phenological phases so as to take account of the plant response to climate (e.g., the grain filling period, flowering- harvest). These indicators are linked with the ecophysiological processes they characterize (for e.g., the grain filling). To represent this methodology, we studied the suitability of winter wheat in future climatic conditions through three distinct French sites, Toulouse, Dijon and Versailles. Indicators have been calculated using climatic data from 1950 to 2100 simulated by the global climate model ARPEGE forced by a greenhouse effect corresponding to the SRES A1B scenario. The Quantile-Quantile downscaling method was applied to obtain data for the three locations. Phenological stages (emergence, ear 1 cm, flowering, beginning of grain filling and harvest) have been simulated by the STICS, CERES and PANORAMIX crop models with the same input climatic data. Results showed that phenological stages tend to be reached earlier in the future. Significant differences were noted between indicators calculated for invariable calendar periods and indicators calculated during phenological phases. Therefore, ecoclimatic indicators are relevant to provide accurate information about crop suitability in the context of climate change. Whereas most of the indicators do not indicate any significant changes in the future, plant mortality due to frost risks from emergence to ear 1 cm tends to decrease and water supply tends to be more limiting in the future. These indicators do not replace models but represent additional tools for understanding and spatializing some results obtained by models. Their use can provide a spatial distribution of crops according to their suitability in present or future climatic conditions and enable us to minimize the risk of crop failure. It would be interesting to consider the response uncertainties according to the uncertainties we have in future climatic predictions by using different greenhouse emission scenarios and downscaling methods.

10 CFR Appendix IV to Part 960 - Types of Information for the Nomination of Sites as Suitable for Characterization

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... temperature in the host rock and surrounding rock units. Section 960.4-2-4Climatic changes. Description of the climatic conditions of the site region, in context with global and regional patterns of climatic changes during the Quaternary Period, in order to project likely future changes in climate such that potential...

10 CFR Appendix IV to Part 960 - Types of Information for the Nomination of Sites as Suitable for Characterization

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... temperature in the host rock and surrounding rock units. Section 960.4-2-4Climatic changes. Description of the climatic conditions of the site region, in context with global and regional patterns of climatic changes during the Quaternary Period, in order to project likely future changes in climate such that potential...

10 CFR Appendix IV to Part 960 - Types of Information for the Nomination of Sites as Suitable for Characterization

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... temperature in the host rock and surrounding rock units. Section 960.4-2-4Climatic changes. Description of the climatic conditions of the site region, in context with global and regional patterns of climatic changes during the Quaternary Period, in order to project likely future changes in climate such that potential...

Review of literature on climate change and forest diseases of western North America

Treesearch

John T. Kliejunas; Brian W. Geils; Jessie Micales Glaeser; Ellen Michaels Goheen; Paul Hennon; Mee-Sook Kim; Harry Kope; Jeff Stone; Rona Sturrock; Susan J. Frankel

2009-01-01

A summary of the literature on relationships between climate and various types of tree diseases, and the potential effects of climate change on pathogens in western North American forests is provided. Climate change generally will lead to reductions in tree health and will improve conditions for some highly damaging pathogens. Sections on abiotic diseases, declines,...

Climate legacy and lag effects on dryland plant communities in the southwestern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunting, Erin; Munson, Seth M.; Villarreal, Miguel

2017-01-01

Climate change effects on vegetation will likely be strong in the southwestern U.S., which is projected to experience large increases in temperature and changes in precipitation. Plant communities in the southwestern U.S. may be particularly vulnerable to climate change as the productivity of many plant species is strongly water-limited. This study examines the relationship between climate and vegetation condition using a time-series of Landsat imagery across grassland, shrubland, and woodland communities on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We improve on poorly understood inter-annual climate-vegetation relationships by exploring how the responses of different plant communities depend on climate legacies (>12 months) and lag behind shorter-term (3–12 month) changes in water availability. Our results show a prolonged drying trend on the Colorado Plateau since the early 1990s that was punctuated in several years by intense droughts. In areas that experienced sustained dry conditions or a drying trend, vegetation greenness (a proxy for production) increased linearly when conditions were interrupted by wetting events. In contrast, in areas that experienced sustained wet conditions or a wetting trend, vegetation greenness was weakly or not related to wetting events, indicating that production may saturate if vegetation experiences sufficient water availability. Shrubland and woodland communities had stronger relationships with climate at long lags (6–12 months) and many maintained greenness under sustained water deficit, whereas grassland communities had stronger relationships at short lags (3–6 months) and lost greenness even in periods of short-term drought. The results of our study show the importance of identifying climate legacies and lags when assessing indicators of ecological drought, which can be used to improve forecasts of which plant communities will be vulnerable under future climate change.

Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

House, A. R.; Thompson, J. R.; Acreman, M. C.

2016-03-01

Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin's whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland.

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Impacts Of Global/Regional Climate Changes On Environment And Health: Need For Integrated Research And Education Collaboration (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuluri, F.

2013-12-01

The realization of long term changes in climate in research community has to go beyond the comfort zone through climate literacy in academics. Higher education on climate change is the platform to bring together the otherwise disconnected factors such as effective discovery, decision making, innovation, interdisciplinary collaboration, Climate change is a complex process that may be due to natural internal processes within the climate system, or to variations in natural or anthropogenic (human-driven) external forcing. Global climate change indicates a change in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for several decades or longer. This includes changes in average weather conditions on Earth, such as a change in average global temperature, as well as changes in how frequently regions experience heat waves, droughts, floods, storms, and other extreme weather. It is important to examine the effects of climate variations on human health and disorders in order to take preventive measures. Similarly, the influence of climate changes on animal management practices, pests and pest management systems, and high value crops such as citrus and vegetables is also equally important for investigation. New genetic agricultural varieties must be explored, and pilot studies should examine biotechnology transfer. Recent climate model improvements have resulted in an enhanced ability to simulate many aspects of climate variability and extremes. However, they are still characterized by systematic errors and limitations in accurately simulating more precisely regional climate conditions. The present situations warrant developing climate literacy on the synergistic impacts of environmental change, and improve development, testing and validation of integrated stress impacts through computer modeling. In the present study we present a detailed study of the current status on the impacts of global/regional climate changes on environment and health with a view to highlighting the need for integrated research and education collaboration at national and global level.

Climate change, water rights, and water supply: The case of irrigated agriculture in Idaho

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Wenchao; Lowe, Scott E.; Adams, Richard M.

2014-12-01

We conduct a hedonic analysis to estimate the response of agricultural land use to water supply information under the Prior Appropriation Doctrine by using Idaho as a case study. Our analysis includes long-term climate (weather) trends and water supply conditions as well as seasonal water supply forecasts. A farm-level panel data set, which accounts for the priority effects of water rights and controls for diversified crop mixes and rotation practices, is used. Our results indicate that farmers respond to the long-term surface and ground water conditions as well as to the seasonal water supply variations. Climate change-induced variations in climate and water supply conditions could lead to substantial damages to irrigated agriculture. We project substantial losses (up to 32%) of the average crop revenue for major agricultural areas under future climate scenarios in Idaho. Finally, farmers demonstrate significantly varied responses given their water rights priorities, which imply that the distributional impact of climate change is sensitive to institutions such as the Prior Appropriation Doctrine.

Permafrost Hazards and Linear Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanilovskaya, Julia; Sergeev, Dmitry

2014-05-01

The international experience of linear infrastructure planning, construction and exploitation in permafrost zone is being directly tied to the permafrost hazard assessment. That procedure should also consider the factors of climate impact and infrastructure protection. The current global climate change hotspots are currently polar and mountain areas. Temperature rise, precipitation and land ice conditions change, early springs occur more often. The big linear infrastructure objects cross the territories with different permafrost conditions which are sensitive to the changes in air temperature, hydrology, and snow accumulation which are connected to climatic dynamics. One of the most extensive linear structures built on permafrost worldwide are Trans Alaskan Pipeline (USA), Alaska Highway (Canada), Qinghai-Xizang Railway (China) and Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean Oil Pipeline (Russia). Those are currently being influenced by the regional climate change and permafrost impact which may act differently from place to place. Thermokarst is deemed to be the most dangerous process for linear engineering structures. Its formation and development depend on the linear structure type: road or pipeline, elevated or buried one. Zonal climate and geocryological conditions are also of the determining importance here. All the projects are of the different age and some of them were implemented under different climatic conditions. The effects of permafrost thawing have been recorded every year since then. The exploration and transportation companies from different countries maintain the linear infrastructure from permafrost degradation in different ways. The highways in Alaska are in a good condition due to governmental expenses on annual reconstructions. The Chara-China Railroad in Russia is under non-standard condition due to intensive permafrost response. Standards for engineering and construction should be reviewed and updated to account for permafrost hazards caused by the climate change. Extra maintenance activity is needed for existence infrastructure to stay operable. Engineers should run climate models under the most pessimistic scenarios when planning new infrastructure projects. That would allow reducing the potential shortcomings related to the permafrost thawing.

Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

PubMed

Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

2014-01-01

Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems.

Urban climate and energy demand interaction in Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasilova, E. V.; Ginzburg, A. S.; Demchenko, P. F.

2017-11-01

The regional and urban climate change in Northern Eurasia is one of the main challenges for sustainable development of human habitats situated in boreal and temperate areas. The half of primary energy is spent for space heating even under quite a mild European climate. Implementation of the district heating in urban areas is currently seen as one of the key conditions of sustainable development. The clear understanding of main problems of the urban climateenergy demand interaction is crucial for both small towns and megacities. The specific features of the urban energy systems in Finland, Russia and China under the changing climate conditions were studied. Regional manifestations of the climate change were examined. The climate projections were established for urban regions of the Northern Eurasia. It was shown that the climate warming is likely to continue intensively there. History and actual development trends were discussed for the urban district heating systems in Russia, China and Finland. Common challenges linked with the climate change have been identified for the considered areas. Adaptation possibilities were discussed taking into account climate-energy interactions.

Climate change drives a shift in peatland ecosystem plant community: implications for ecosystem function and stability.

PubMed

Dieleman, Catherine M; Branfireun, Brian A; McLaughlin, James W; Lindo, Zoë

2015-01-01

The composition of a peatland plant community has considerable effect on a range of ecosystem functions. Peatland plant community structure is predicted to change under future climate change, making the quantification of the direction and magnitude of this change a research priority. We subjected intact, replicated vegetated poor fen peat monoliths to elevated temperatures, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ), and two water table levels in a factorial design to determine the individual and synergistic effects of climate change factors on the poor fen plant community composition. We identify three indicators of a regime shift occurring in our experimental poor fen system under climate change: nonlinear decline of Sphagnum at temperatures 8 °C above ambient conditions, concomitant increases in Carex spp. at temperatures 4 °C above ambient conditions suggesting a weakening of Sphagnum feedbacks on peat accumulation, and increased variance of the plant community composition and pore water pH through time. A temperature increase of +4 °C appeared to be a threshold for increased vascular plant abundance; however the magnitude of change was species dependent. Elevated temperature combined with elevated CO2 had a synergistic effect on large graminoid species abundance, with a 15 times increase as compared to control conditions. Community analyses suggested that the balance between dominant plant species was tipped from Sphagnum to a graminoid-dominated system by the combination of climate change factors. Our findings indicate that changes in peatland plant community composition are likely under future climate change conditions, with a demonstrated shift toward a dominance of graminoid species in poor fens. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential climate-change impacts on the Chesapeake Bay

Treesearch

Raymond G. Najjar; Christopher R. Pyke; Mary Beth Adams; Denise Breitburg; Carl Hershner; Michael Kemp; Robert Howarth; Margaret R. Mulholland; Michael Paolisso; David Secor; Kevin Sellner; Denice Wardrop; Robert Wood

2010-01-01

We review current understanding of the potential impact of climate change on the Chesapeake Bay. Scenarios for CO2 emissions indicate that by the end of the 21st century the Bay region will experience significant changes in climate forcings with respect to historical conditions, including increases in CO2 concentrations,...

Interactions of predominant insects and diseases with climate change in Douglas-fir forests of Western Oregon and Washington, USA

EPA Science Inventory

Forest disturbance regimes are beginning to show evidence of climate-mediated shifts associated with global climate change, and these patterns will likely continue due to continuing changes in environmental conditions. Tree growth is controlled by the physiological constraints o...

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions.

Treesearch

Larry D. Hinzman; Neil D. Bettez; W. Robert Bolton; F. Stuart Chapin; Mark B. Dyurgerov; Chris L. Fastie; Brad Griffith; Robert D. Hollister; Allen Hope; Henry P. Huntington; Anne M. Jensen; Gensuou J. Jia; Torre Jorgenson; Douglas L. Kane; David R. Klein; Gary Kofinas; Amanda H. Lynch; Andrea H. Lloyd; A. David McGuire; Frederick E. Nelson; Walter C. Oechel; Thomas E. Osterkamp; Charles H. Racine; Vladimir E. Romanovsky; Robert S. Stone; Douglas A. Stow; Matthew Sturm; Craig E. Tweedie; George L. Vourlitis; Marilyn D. Walker; Donald A. Walker; Patrick J. Webber; Jeffrey M. Welker; Kevin S. Winker; Kenji Yoshikawa

2005-01-01

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth...

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change.

PubMed

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-10-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates.

Measuring resilience and assessing vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change in South America

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Climate change has been identified as the primary threat to the integrity and functioning of ecosystems in this century, although there is still much uncertainty about its effects and the degree of vulnerability for different ecosystems to this threat. Here we propose a new methodological approach capable of measuring and mapping the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems at large scales based on their climatic niche. To do this, we used high spatial resolution remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling techniques to calculate and spatialize the resilience of three stable states of ecosystems in South America: forest, savanna, and grassland. Also, we evaluated the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate stress, the likelihood of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions, and their respective adaptive capacities in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that forests, the most productive and biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the earth, are more vulnerable to climate change than savannas or grasslands. Forests showed less resistance to climate stress and a higher chance of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions. If this scenario occurs, the forest ecosystems would have less chance of adaptation compared to savannas or grasslands because of their narrow climate niche. Therefore, we can conclude that a possible consolidation of non-analogous climatic conditions would lead to a loss of resilience in the forest ecosystem, significantly increasing the chance of a critical transition event to another stable state with a lower density of vegetation cover (e.g., savanna or grassland). PMID:29554132

Live Fast, Die Young: Experimental Evidence of Population Extinction Risk due to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Bestion, Elvire; Teyssier, Aimeric; Richard, Murielle; Clobert, Jean; Cote, Julien

2015-01-01

Evidence has accumulated in recent decades on the drastic impact of climate change on biodiversity. Warming temperatures have induced changes in species physiology, phenology, and have decreased body size. Such modifications can impact population dynamics and could lead to changes in life cycle and demography. More specifically, conceptual frameworks predict that global warming will severely threaten tropical ectotherms while temperate ectotherms should resist or even benefit from higher temperatures. However, experimental studies measuring the impacts of future warming trends on temperate ectotherms' life cycle and population persistence are lacking. Here we investigate the impacts of future climates on a model vertebrate ectotherm species using a large-scale warming experiment. We manipulated climatic conditions in 18 seminatural populations over two years to obtain a present climate treatment and a warm climate treatment matching IPCC predictions for future climate. Warmer temperatures caused a faster body growth, an earlier reproductive onset, and an increased voltinism, leading to a highly accelerated life cycle but also to a decrease in adult survival. A matrix population model predicts that warm climate populations in our experiment should go extinct in around 20 y. Comparing our experimental climatic conditions to conditions encountered by populations across Europe, we suggest that warming climates should threaten a significant number of populations at the southern range of the distribution. Our findings stress the importance of experimental approaches on the entire life cycle to more accurately predict population and species persistence in future climates. PMID:26501958

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-05-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change.

PubMed

Baron, Jill S; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nate

2009-12-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Options for national parks and reserves for adapting to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Gunderson, Lance; Allen, Craig D.; Fleishman, Erica; McKenzie, Donald; Meyerson, Laura A.; Oropeza, Jill; Stephenson, Nathan L.

2009-01-01

Past and present climate has shaped the valued ecosystems currently protected in parks and reserves, but future climate change will redefine these conditions. Continued conservation as climate changes will require thinking differently about resource management than we have in the past; we present some logical steps and tools for doing so. Three critical tenets underpin future management plans and activities: (1) climate patterns of the past will not be the climate patterns of the future; (2) climate defines the environment and influences future trajectories of the distributions of species and their habitats; (3) specific management actions may help increase the resilience of some natural resources, but fundamental changes in species and their environment may be inevitable. Science-based management will be necessary because past experience may not serve as a guide for novel future conditions. Identifying resources and processes at risk, defining thresholds and reference conditions, and establishing monitoring and assessment programs are among the types of scientific practices needed to support a broadened portfolio of management activities. In addition to the control and hedging management strategies commonly in use today, we recommend adaptive management wherever possible. Adaptive management increases our ability to address the multiple scales at which species and processes function, and increases the speed of knowledge transfer among scientists and managers. Scenario planning provides a broad forward-thinking framework from which the most appropriate management tools can be chosen. The scope of climate change effects will require a shared vision among regional partners. Preparing for and adapting to climate change is as much a cultural and intellectual challenge as an ecological challenge.

Behavioral flexibility as a mechanism for coping with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, Erik; Hall, L. Embere; Varner, Johanna; Loosen, Anne E.; Dunham, Jason B.; Gahl, Megan K.; Smith, Felisa A.; Lawler, Joshua J.

2017-01-01

Of the primary responses to contemporary climate change – “move, adapt, acclimate, or die” – that are available to organisms, “acclimate” may be effectively achieved through behavioral modification. Behavioral flexibility allows animals to rapidly cope with changing environmental conditions, and behavior represents an important component of a species’ adaptive capacity in the face of climate change. However, there is currently a lack of knowledge about the limits or constraints on behavioral responses to changing conditions. Here, we characterize the contexts in which organisms respond to climate variability through behavior. First, we quantify patterns in behavioral responses across taxa with respect to timescales, climatic stimuli, life-history traits, and ecology. Next, we identify existing knowledge gaps, research biases, and other challenges. Finally, we discuss how conservation practitioners and resource managers can incorporate an improved understanding of behavioral flexibility into natural resource management and policy decisions.

Development of Middle Stone Age innovation linked to rapid climate change

PubMed Central

Ziegler, Martin; Simon, Margit H.; Hall, Ian R.; Barker, Stephen; Stringer, Chris; Zahn, Rainer

2013-01-01

The development of modernity in early human populations has been linked to pulsed phases of technological and behavioural innovation within the Middle Stone Age of South Africa. However, the trigger for these intermittent pulses of technological innovation is an enigma. Here we show that, contrary to some previous studies, the occurrence of innovation was tightly linked to abrupt climate change. Major innovational pulses occurred at times when South African climate changed rapidly towards more humid conditions, while northern sub-Saharan Africa experienced widespread droughts, as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling. These millennial-scale teleconnections resulted from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic Ocean related to changes in the ocean circulation. These conditions led to humid pulses in South Africa and potentially to the creation of favourable environmental conditions. This strongly implies that innovational pulses of early modern human behaviour were climatically influenced and linked to the adoption of refugia. PMID:23695699

Development of Middle Stone Age innovation linked to rapid climate change.

PubMed

Ziegler, Martin; Simon, Margit H; Hall, Ian R; Barker, Stephen; Stringer, Chris; Zahn, Rainer

2013-01-01

The development of modernity in early human populations has been linked to pulsed phases of technological and behavioural innovation within the Middle Stone Age of South Africa. However, the trigger for these intermittent pulses of technological innovation is an enigma. Here we show that, contrary to some previous studies, the occurrence of innovation was tightly linked to abrupt climate change. Major innovational pulses occurred at times when South African climate changed rapidly towards more humid conditions, while northern sub-Saharan Africa experienced widespread droughts, as the Northern Hemisphere entered phases of extreme cooling. These millennial-scale teleconnections resulted from the bipolar seesaw behaviour of the Atlantic Ocean related to changes in the ocean circulation. These conditions led to humid pulses in South Africa and potentially to the creation of favourable environmental conditions. This strongly implies that innovational pulses of early modern human behaviour were climatically influenced and linked to the adoption of refugia.

Will climate change increase irrigation requirements in agriculture of Central Europe? A simulation study for Northern Germany.

PubMed

Riediger, Jan; Breckling, Broder; Nuske, Robert S; Schröder, Winfried

2014-01-01

By example of a region in Northern Germany (County of Uelzen), this study investigates whether climate change is likely to require adaption of agricultural practices such as irrigation in Central Europe. Due to sandy soils with low water retention capacity and occasional insufficient rainfall, irrigation is a basic condition for agricultural production in the county of Uelzen. Thus, in the framework of the comprehensive research cluster Nachhaltiges Landmanagement im Norddeutschen Tiefland ( NaLaMa-nT ), we investigated whether irrigation might need to be adapted to changing climatic conditions. To this end, results from regionalised climate change modelling were coupled with soil- and crop-specific evapotranspiration models to calculate potential amounts of irrigation to prevent crop failures. Three different runs of the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 were used for the time period until 2070. The results show that the extent of probable necessary irrigation will likely increase in the future. For the scenario run with the highest temperature rise, the results suggest that the amount of ground water presently allowed to be extracted for irrigation might not be sufficient in the future to retain common agricultural pattern. The investigation at hand exemplifies data requirements and methods to estimate irrigation needs under climate change conditions. Restriction of ground water withdrawal by German environmental regulation may require an adaptation of crop selection and alterations in agricultural practice also in regions with comparable conditions.

A framework for assessing climate change vulnerability and identifying adaptation responses in the central hardwoods region

Treesearch

Patricia R. Butler; Leslie A. Brandt; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; Patricia D. Shannon; Chris W. Swanston

2014-01-01

The Central Hardwood region contains a mosaic of forests, woodlands, savannas, and other ecosystems that will increasingly be affected by a changing climate over the next century. Understanding potential impacts is important to sustaining healthy forests under changing conditions. The objectives of the Climate Change Response Framework (forestadaptation.org) are to...

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change. PMID:24823495

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

2013-01-01

There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

Impacts of Autonomous Adaptations on the Hydrological Drought Under Climate Change Condition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oki, T.; Satoh, Y.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Yoshimura, K.

2014-12-01

Because of expected effects of climate changes on quantity and spatial distribution of available water resources, assessment of the changes in the balance between the demand and supply of water resources is critical for some regions. Historically, water deficiencies were overcome by planned water management such as dam regulation and irrigation. But only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic factors on the risk of imbalance of water demand and supply under climate change conditions. Therefore, estimation of the potential deficiency in existing infrastructures under water-environment change is needed to support our society to adapt against future climate changes. This study aims to estimate the impacts of climate changes on the risk of water scarcity projected based on CMIP5 RCP scenarios and the efficiency of autonomous adaptation by anthropogenic water management, such as reservoir operation and irrigation using ground water. First, tendencies of the changes in water scarcity under climate change are estimated by an improved land surface model, which integrates natural water cycles and human activities. Second, the efficiencies of human-developed infrastructure are analyzed by comparing the naturalized and fully anthropogenic offline simulations. It was found that number of hydrological drought days will be increased and decreased in approximately 70 % and 24 % of global land, respectively, considering anthropogenic water management, however, they are approximately 82 % and 16 %, respectively, under naturalized condition without anthropogenic water management. The differences indicate how autonomous adaptation through anthropogenic water management can reduce the impacts of climate change. Also, adequate enhancement of infrastructure is necessary against expected water scarcity under climate change because such positive and negative effects of artificial water regulation show comparable impact on water scarcity risk to that of climate change in regions where human activity is significant, even if it is under the worst-case RCP8.5 scenario. More realistic assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and the cost estimation of how much economic investments are needed to maintain the current level of the risks of water scarcity are necessary.

Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

2012-04-01

The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.

2015-06-01

Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

Climate change, extreme weather events, air pollution and respiratory health in Europe.

PubMed

De Sario, M; Katsouyanni, K; Michelozzi, P

2013-09-01

Due to climate change and other factors, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanised areas of the world, with a significant effect on respiratory health both independently and synergistically with weather conditions; climate scenarios show Europe as one of the most vulnerable regions. European studies on heatwave episodes have consistently shown a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures, while the potential weather-air pollution interaction during wildfires and dust storms is unknown. Allergen patterns are also changing in response to climate change, and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollens, especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known; the health consequences vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases, and premature death. These multidimensional climate-pollution-allergen effects need to be taken into account in estimating both climate and air pollution-related respiratory effects, in order to set up adequate policy and public health actions to face both the current and future climate and pollution challenges.

Facilitating climate-change-induced range shifts across continental land-use barriers.

PubMed

Robillard, Cassandra M; Coristine, Laura E; Soares, Rosana N; Kerr, Jeremy T

2015-12-01

Climate changes impose requirements for many species to shift their ranges to remain within environmentally tolerable areas, but near-continuous regions of intense human land use stretching across continental extents diminish dispersal prospects for many species. We reviewed the impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on species' abilities to track changing climates and existing plans to facilitate species dispersal in response to climate change through regions of intensive land uses, drawing on examples from North America and elsewhere. We identified an emerging analytical framework that accounts for variation in species' dispersal capacities relative to both the pace of climate change and habitat availability. Habitat loss and fragmentation hinder climate change tracking, particularly for specialists, by impeding both propagule dispersal and population growth. This framework can be used to identify prospective modern-era climatic refugia, where the pace of climate change has been slower than surrounding areas, that are defined relative to individual species' needs. The framework also underscores the importance of identifying and managing dispersal pathways or corridors through semi-continental land use barriers that can benefit many species simultaneously. These emerging strategies to facilitate range shifts must account for uncertainties around population adaptation to local environmental conditions. Accounting for uncertainties in climate change and dispersal capabilities among species and expanding biological monitoring programs within an adaptive management paradigm are vital strategies that will improve species' capacities to track rapidly shifting climatic conditions across landscapes dominated by intensive human land use. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Climate change, sea-level rise, and conservation: keeping island biodiversity afloat.

PubMed

Courchamp, Franck; Hoffmann, Benjamin D; Russell, James C; Leclerc, Camille; Bellard, Céline

2014-03-01

Island conservation programs have been spectacularly successful over the past five decades, yet they generally do not account for impacts of climate change. Here, we argue that the full spectrum of climate change, especially sea-level rise and loss of suitable climatic conditions, should be rapidly integrated into island biodiversity research and management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What we know, do not know, and need to know about climate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematic literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.; Pearce, Tristan

2010-01-01

This letter systematically reviews and synthesizes scientific and gray literature publications (n = 420) to identify and characterize the nature of climate change vulnerability in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region of the western Canadian Arctic and identify gaps in understanding. The literature documents widespread evidence of climate change, with implications for human and biophysical systems. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions and are indicative of a high adaptive capacity. However, barriers to adaptation are evident and are expected to constrain adaptive capacity to future climate change. Continued climate change is predicted for the region, with differential exposure sensitivity for communities, groups and sectors: a function of social-economic-biophysical characteristics and projected future climatic conditions. Existing climate risks are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, although the interaction between projected changes and socio-economic-demographic trends has not been assessed. The capacity for adapting to future climate change has also not been studied. The review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and other stakeholders to address research needs. Importantly, the fully categorized list of reviewed references accompanying this letter will be a valuable resource for those working or planning to work in the region, capturing climate change research published since 1990. At a broader level, the systematic review methodology offers a promising tool for climate/environmental change studies in general where there is a large and emerging body of research but limited understanding of research gaps and needs.

Wetland extent and plant community composition vulnerability to climate change

Treesearch

Michael Nassry; Denice H. Wardrop; Anna T. Hamilton; Christopher J. Duffy; Jordan M. West

2016-01-01

The potential impact of climate change on wetland-provided ecosystem services has been largely unspecified because of the difficulty in predicting changing hydrologic conditions, which are a major driver of...

The effect of abrupt climate changes and climate background conditions in Southern Europe during the last glacial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Gregor; Martin-Puertas, Celia; Brauer, Achim; Lohmann, Gerrit

2015-04-01

The last glacial period is characterized by abrupt and large temperature shifts in Greenland and the North Atlantic realm. Pollen and sediment data from Lago Grande di Monticchio (MON) have demonstrated a clear imprint of these fluctuations operating at millennial time-scales. Interestingly, basic mean environmental condition changes with respect to temperature and precipitation occurred during MIS4, separating warm and dry conditions during MIS5 from relatively cold and humid conditions within MIS3. This general climate background shift is superposed by distinct millennial-scale variability at MON. Using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model applying boundary conditions at 32 ka BP and pre-industrial conditions as a surrogate for MIS3 and MIS5, we have simulated and analysed characteristic changes in Southern Europe during the last glacial. We find that changes in the mean state at MON are mainly related to a partial shift of the North Atlantic deep water (NADW) convection sites from the Nordic Seas to South of Iceland, the presence of the Fennoscandian ice sheet and lower greenhouse gas concentrations. These background characteristics provide the basis for enhanced zonal moisture transport from the eastern North Atlantic to Middle and Southern Europe. Furthermore, simulations of abrupt climate change scenarios show that a deactivation of the convection sites South of Iceland during MIS3 leads to cooler and dryer conditions at MON. Such temperature and precipitation changes are thought to provide a counter-acting effect on woody vegetation and associated pollen signals at MON. This is in contrast to the impact of abrupt climate perturbation scenarios during MIS5, where no significant precipitation changes are detected. Hence, the simulated changes and underlying mechanisms are largely consistent with the recorded proxy evidence with respect to both, mean state and millennial-scale changes.

Adapting to Mother Nature's changing climatic conditions: Flexible stocking for enhancing profitability of Wyoming ranchers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ranching is a dynamic business in which profitability is impacted by changing weather and climatic conditions. A ranch-level model using a representative ranch in southeastern Wyoming was used to compare economic outcomes from growing season precipitation scenarios of: 1) historical precipitation da...

Michigan forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Stephen Handler; Matthew J. Duveneck; Louis Iverson; Emily Peters; Robert M. Scheller; Kirk R. Wythers; Leslie Brandt; Patricia Butler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Amy Clark Eagle; Joshua G. Cohen; Rich Corner; Peter B. Reich; Tim Baker; Sophan Chhin; Eric Clark; David Fehringer; Jon Fosgitt; James Gries; Christine Hall; Kimberly R. Hall; Robert Heyd; Christopher L. Hoving; Ines Ibáñez; Don Kuhr; Stephen Matthews; Jennifer Muladore; Knute Nadelhoffer; David Neumann; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Matt Sands; Randy Swaty; Leiloni Wonch; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; Gary Johnson; Lucinda Johnson; David Neitzel; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert. Ziel

2014-01-01

Forests in northern Michigan will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate during the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in Michigan's eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends, projected climate...

Climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cronin, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Climate change (including climate variability) refers to regional or global changes in mean climate state or in patterns of climate variability over decades to millions of years often identified using statistical methods and sometimes referred to as changes in long-term weather conditions (IPCC, 2012). Climate is influenced by changes in continent-ocean configurations due to plate tectonic processes, variations in Earth’s orbit, axial tilt and precession, atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations, solar variability, volcanism, internal variability resulting from interactions between the atmosphere, oceans and ice (glaciers, small ice caps, ice sheets, and sea ice), and anthropogenic activities such as greenhouse gas emissions and land use and their effects on carbon cycling.

'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

PubMed

Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

2016-02-01

We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Chapter 3: Climate change and the relevance of historical forest conditions

Treesearch

H.D. Safford; M. North; M.D. Meyer

2012-01-01

Increasing human emissions of greenhouse gases are modifying the Earth's climate. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observation of increases in average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea...

Estimates of the long-term U.S. economic impacts of global climate change-induced drought.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Loose, Verne W.; Warren, Drake E.

2010-01-01

While climate-change models have done a reasonable job of forecasting changes in global climate conditions over the past decades, recent data indicate that actual climate change may be much more severe. To better understand some of the potential economic impacts of these severe climate changes, Sandia economists estimated the impacts to the U.S. economy of climate change-induced impacts to U.S. precipitation over the 2010 to 2050 time period. The economists developed an impact methodology that converts changes in precipitation and water availability to changes in economic activity, and conducted simulations of economic impacts using a large-scale macroeconomic model of themore » U.S. economy.« less

Climate Change and Aquatic Invasive Species (Final Report) ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Climate Change and Aquatic Invasive Species. This report reviews available literature on climate-change effects on aquatic invasive species (AIS) and examines state-level AIS management activities. Data on management activities came from publicly available information, was analyzed with respect to climate-change effects, and was reviewed by managers. This report also analyzes state and regional AIS management plans to determine their capacity to incorporate information on changing conditions generally, and climate change specifically. The report is intended for managers and scientists working with AIS to provide them with information on the potential effects of climate change on AIS, strategies for adapting their management to accomodate these environmental changes, and highlight further research needs and gaps.

Bioclimatic predictors for supporting ecological applications in the conterminous United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Donnel, Michael S.; Ignizio, Drew A.

2012-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed climate indices, referred to as bioclimatic predictors, which highlight climate conditions best related to species physiology. A set of 20 bioclimatic predictors were developed as Geographic Information Systems (GIS) continuous raster surfaces for each year between 1895 and 2009. The Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) and down-scaled PRISM data, which included both averaged multi-year and averaged monthly climate summaries, was used to develop these multi-scale bioclimatic predictors. Bioclimatic predictors capture information about annual conditions (annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, annual range in temperature and precipitation), as well as seasonal mean climate conditions and intra-year seasonality (temperature of the coldest and warmest months, precipitation of the wettest and driest quarters). Examining climate over time is useful when quantifying the effects of climate changes on species' distributions for past, current, and forecasted scenarios. These data, which have not been readily available to scientists, can provide biologists and ecologists with relevant and multi-scaled climate data to augment research on the responses of species to changing climate conditions. The relationships established between species demographics and distributions with bioclimatic predictors can inform land managers of climatic effects on species during decisionmaking processes.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

PubMed

Xie, Gisselle Yang; Olson, Deanna H; Blaustein, Andrew R

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

A strategy for assessing potential future changes in climate, hydrology, and vegetation in the Western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert Stephen; Hostetler, Steven W.; Bartlein, Patrick J.; Anderson, Katherine H.

1998-01-01

Historical and geological data indicate that significant changes can occur in the Earth's climate on time scales ranging from years to millennia. In addition to natural climatic change, climatic changes may occur in the near future due to increased concentrations of carbon dioxide and other trace gases in the atmosphere that are the result of human activities. International research efforts using atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM's) to assess potential climatic conditions under atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations of twice the pre-industrial level (a '2 X CO2' atmosphere) conclude that climate would warm on a global basis. However, it is difficult to assess how the projected warmer climatic conditions would be distributed on a regional scale and what the effects of such warming would be on the landscape, especially for temperate mountainous regions such as the Western United States. In this report, we present a strategy to assess the regional sensitivity to global climatic change. The strategy makes use of a hierarchy of models ranging from an AGCM, to a regional climate model, to landscape-scale process models of hydrology and vegetation. A 2 X CO2 global climate simulation conducted with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) GENESIS AGCM on a grid of approximately 4.5o of latitude by 7.5o of longitude was used to drive the NCAR regional climate model (RegCM) over the Western United States on a grid of 60 km by 60 km. The output from the RegCM is used directly (for hydrologic models) or interpolated onto a 15-km grid (for vegetation models) to quantify possible future environmental conditions on a spatial scale relevant to policy makers and land managers.

Potential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision-making at various levels and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on CP 72-2086 the most widely grown...

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Treesearch

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

10 CFR 960.4-2-4 - Climatic changes.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Climatic changes. 960.4-2-4 Section 960.4-2-4 Energy DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL GUIDELINES FOR THE PRELIMINARY SCREENING OF POTENTIAL SITES FOR A NUCLEAR WASTE REPOSITORY Postclosure Guidelines § 960.4-2-4 Climatic changes. (a) Qualifying condition. The site shall be...

Early-Holocene warming in Beringia and its mediation by sea-level and vegetation changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bartlein, P.J.; Edwards, M.E.; Hostetler, Steven W.; Shafer, Sarah; Anderson, P.M.; Brubaker, L. B; Lozhkin, A. V

2015-01-01

Arctic land-cover changes induced by recent global climate change (e.g., expansion of woody vegetation into tundra and effects of permafrost degradation) are expected to generate further feedbacks to the climate system. Past changes can be used to assess our understanding of feedback mechanisms through a combination of process modeling and paleo-observations. The subcontinental region of Beringia (northeastern Siberia, Alaska, and northwestern Canada) was largely ice-free at the peak of deglacial warming and experienced both major vegetation change and loss of permafrost when many arctic regions were still ice covered. The evolution of Beringian climate at this time was largely driven by global features, such as the amplified seasonal cycle of Northern Hemisphere insolation and changes in global ice volume and atmospheric composition, but changes in regional land-surface controls, such as the widespread development of thaw lakes, the replacement of tundra by deciduous forest or woodland, and the flooding of the Bering–Chukchi land bridge, were probably also important. We examined the sensitivity of Beringia's early Holocene climate to these regional-scale controls using a regional climate model (RegCM). Lateral and oceanic boundary conditions were provided by global climate simulations conducted using the GENESIS V2.01 atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with a mixed-layer ocean. We carried out two present-day simulations of regional climate – one with modern and one with 11 ka geography – plus another simulation for 6 ka. In addition, we performed five ~ 11 ka climate simulations, each driven by the same global AGCM boundary conditions: (i) 11 ka Control, which represents conditions just prior to the major transitions (exposed land bridge, no thaw lakes or wetlands, widespread tundra vegetation), (ii) sea-level rise, which employed present-day continental outlines, (iii) vegetation change, with deciduous needleleaf and deciduous broadleaf boreal vegetation types distributed as suggested by the paleoecological record, (iv) thaw lakes, which used the present-day distribution of lakes and wetlands, and (v) post-11 ka All, incorporating all boundary conditions changed in experiments (ii)–(iv). We find that regional-scale controls strongly mediate the climate responses to changes in the large-scale controls, amplifying them in some cases, damping them in others, and, overall, generating considerable spatial heterogeneity in the simulated climate changes. The change from tundra to deciduous woodland produces additional widespread warming in spring and early summer over that induced by the 11 ka insolation regime alone, and lakes and wetlands produce modest and localized cooling in summer and warming in winter. The greatest effect is the flooding of the land bridge and shelves, which produces generally cooler conditions in summer but warmer conditions in winter and is most clearly manifest on the flooded shelves and in eastern Beringia. By 6 ka continued amplification of the seasonal cycle of insolation and loss of the Laurentide ice sheet produce temperatures similar to or higher than those at 11 ka, plus a longer growing season.

A Regional-Scale Evaluation on Environmental Stability Conditions for Convective Rain under Climate Change from Super-High-Resolution GCM Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemi, T.; Nomura, S.; Oku, Y.; Ishikawa, H.

2011-12-01

Understanding and forecasting of convective rain due to intense thunderstorms, which develop under conditions both with and without significant synoptic-scale and/or mesoscale forcings, are critical in dealing with disaster prevention/mitigation and developing urban planning appropriate for disaster management. Thunderstorms rapidly develop even during the daytimes of fair weather conditions without any external forcings, and sometimes become strong enough to induce local-scale meteorological disasters such as torrential rain, flush flooding, high winds, and tornadoes/gusts. With the growing interests in climate change, future changes in the behavior of such convectively generated extreme events have gained scientific and societal interests. This study conducted the regional-scale evaluations on the environmental stability conditions for convective rain that develops under synoptically undisturbed, summertime conditions by using the outputs of super-high-resolution AGCM simulations, at a 20-km resolution, for the present, the near-future, and the future climates under global warming with IPCC A1B emission scenario. The GCM, MRI-AGCM3.2S, was developed by Meteorological Research Institute of Japan Meteorological Agency under the KAKUSHIN program funded by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan. The climate simulation outputs that were used in this study corresponded to three 25-year periods: 1980-2004 for the present climate; 2020-2044 for the near-future climate; and 2075-2099 for the future climate. The Kanto Plain that includes the Tokyo metropolitan area was chosen as the study area, since the Tokyo metropolitan area is one of the largest metropolises in the world and is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Therefore, one of the purposes of this study was to examine how regional-scale evaluations are performed from the super-high-resolution GCM outputs. After verifying the usefulness of the GCM present-climate outputs with observations and operational mesoscale analyses, we examined, as another purpose of this study, the future changes in the environmental stability for convective rain. To diagnose the environmental conditions, some of the commonly used stability parameters and indices were examined. In the future climates, temperature lapse rate decreased in the lower troposphere, while water vapor mixing ratio increased throughout the deep troposphere. The changes in the temperature and moisture profiles resulted in the increase in both precipitable water vapor and convective available potential energy. These projected changes will be enhanced with the future period. Furthermore, the statistical analyses for the differences of the stability parameters between no-rain and rain days under the synoptically undisturbed condition in each simulated climate period indicated that the environmental conditions in terms of the stability parameters that distinguish no-rain and rain events are basically unchanged between the present and the future climates. This result suggests that the environmental characteristics favorable for afternoon rain events in the synoptically undisturbed environments will not change under global warming.

Climate warming and Bergmann's rule through time: is there any evidence?

PubMed Central

Teplitsky, Celine; Millien, Virginie

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to induce many ecological and evolutionary changes. Among these is the hypothesis that climate warming will cause a reduction in body size. This hypothesis stems from Bergmann's rule, a trend whereby species exhibit a smaller body size in warmer climates, and larger body size under colder conditions in endotherms. The mechanisms behind this rule are still debated, and it is not clear whether Bergmann's rule can be extended to predict the effects of climate change through time. We reviewed the primary literature for evidence (i) of a decrease in body size in response to climate warming, (ii) that changing body size is an adaptive response and (iii) that these responses are evolutionary or plastic. We found weak evidence for changes in body size through time as predicted by Bergmann's rule. Only three studies investigated the adaptive nature of these size decreases. Of these, none reported evidence of selection for smaller size or of a genetic basis for the size change, suggesting that size decreases could be due to nonadaptive plasticity in response to changing environmental conditions. More studies are needed before firm conclusions can be drawn about the underlying causes of these changes in body size in response to a warming climate. PMID:24454554

Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Len M.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Fulton, David C.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Smith, Jordan W.; Tunney, Tyler D.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

2016-01-01

Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana

PubMed Central

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O.; Wang, Jonathan A.; Braun, Peter T.; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D.; Metcalf, C. Jessica E.; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-01-01

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico “resurrection experiments” showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation. PMID:27140640

Predicting the evolutionary dynamics of seasonal adaptation to novel climates in Arabidopsis thaliana.

PubMed

Fournier-Level, Alexandre; Perry, Emily O; Wang, Jonathan A; Braun, Peter T; Migneault, Andrew; Cooper, Martha D; Metcalf, C Jessica E; Schmitt, Johanna

2016-05-17

Predicting whether and how populations will adapt to rapid climate change is a critical goal for evolutionary biology. To examine the genetic basis of fitness and predict adaptive evolution in novel climates with seasonal variation, we grew a diverse panel of the annual plant Arabidopsis thaliana (multiparent advanced generation intercross lines) in controlled conditions simulating four climates: a present-day reference climate, an increased-temperature climate, a winter-warming only climate, and a poleward-migration climate with increased photoperiod amplitude. In each climate, four successive seasonal cohorts experienced dynamic daily temperature and photoperiod variation over a year. We measured 12 traits and developed a genomic prediction model for fitness evolution in each seasonal environment. This model was used to simulate evolutionary trajectories of the base population over 50 y in each climate, as well as 100-y scenarios of gradual climate change following adaptation to a reference climate. Patterns of plastic and evolutionary fitness response varied across seasons and climates. The increased-temperature climate promoted genetic divergence of subpopulations across seasons, whereas in the winter-warming and poleward-migration climates, seasonal genetic differentiation was reduced. In silico "resurrection experiments" showed limited evolutionary rescue compared with the plastic response of fitness to seasonal climate change. The genetic basis of adaptation and, consequently, the dynamics of evolutionary change differed qualitatively among scenarios. Populations with fewer founding genotypes and populations with genetic diversity reduced by prior selection adapted less well to novel conditions, demonstrating that adaptation to rapid climate change requires the maintenance of sufficient standing variation.

How will climate change affect vine behaviour in different soils?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leibar, Urtzi; Aizpurua, Ana; Morales, Fermin; Pascual, Inmaculada; Unamunzaga, Olatz

2014-05-01

Various agricultural sectors are sensitive to projected climate change. In this sense, the strong link between climate and grapevine phenology and berry quality suggests a relevant impact. Within the concept of terroir, climate is a factor that influences ripening of a specific variety and resulting wine style. Furthermore, the effect of soil on grape potential is complex, because the soil acts on grapevine water and nutrient supply, and influences root zone temperature. The aim of this work was to evaluate the effect of climate change (increased CO2, higher temperature and lower relative humidity), soil texture and irrigation on the physiology, yield and berry quality of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.) cv. Tempranillo. A greenhouse experiment was carried out with potted, own-rooted fruit-bearing cuttings. Three factors were studied: a) climate change (700 μmol CO2 mol-1 air, 28/18°C and 45/65% day/night relative humidity) vs. current conditions (375 μmol CO2 mol-1 air, 24/14ºC and 33/53% day/night relative humidity), b) soil texture (9, 18 and 36% soil clay content) and c) irrigation; well-irrigated (20-35% of soil water content) vs. water deficit (60% of the water applied to the irrigated plants). Berries were harvested at ripeness (21-23 ºBrix). Climate change shortened the time between veraison and full maturity up to 9 days and reduced the number of berries per bunch. Grapes grown under climate change conditions had higher pH and lower acidity (due to malic and tartaric acids), anthocyanins content and colour intensity. Water-deficit delayed ripening up to 10 days and reduced final leaf area and root weight. Berries from water stressed plants had an increased skin/pulp ratio and pH, and lower acidity (malic acid) and polyphenol content. Regarding soil texture, plants grown in the soil with lower clay content increased root fresh weight and had higher total anthocyanins content. There were no interactions between factors. In conclusion, both climate change and water-deficit had a clear influence on the grape phenological development and composition, whilst soil affected root configuration and anthocyanins concentration. Effects of climate change and water availability on different soil conditions should be considered to take full advantage or mitigate the consequences of the future climate conditions.

Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health.

PubMed

Bennett, Charmian M; Friel, Sharon

2014-12-03

This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world's poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health.

A high-altitude peatland record of environmental changes in the NW Argentine Andes (24 ° S) over the last 2100 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schittek, Karsten; Kock, Sebastian T.; Lücke, Andreas; Hense, Jonathan; Ohlendorf, Christian; Kulemeyer, Julio J.; Lupo, Liliana C.; Schäbitz, Frank

2016-05-01

High-altitude cushion peatlands are versatile archives for high-resolution palaeoenvironmental studies, due to their high accumulation rates, range of proxies, and sensitivity to climatic and/or human-induced changes. Especially within the Central Andes, the knowledge about climate conditions during the Holocene is limited. In this study, we present the environmental and climatic history for the last 2100 years of Cerro Tuzgle peatland (CTP), located in the dry Puna of NW Argentina, based on a multi-proxy approach. X-ray fluorescence (XRF), stable isotope and element content analyses (δ13C, δ15N, TN and TOC) were conducted to analyse the inorganic geochemistry throughout the sequence, revealing changes in the peatlands' past redox conditions. Pollen assemblages give an insight into substantial environmental changes on a regional scale. The palaeoclimate varied significantly during the last 2100 years. The results reflect prominent late Holocene climate anomalies and provide evidence that in situ moisture changes were coupled to the migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). A period of sustained dry conditions prevailed from around 150 BC to around AD 150. A more humid phase dominated between AD 200 and AD 550. Afterwards, the climate was characterised by changes between drier and wetter conditions, with droughts at around AD 650-800 and AD 1000-1100. Volcanic forcing at the beginning of the 19th century (1815 Tambora eruption) seems to have had an impact on climatic settings in the Central Andes. In the past, the peatland recovered from climatic perturbations. Today, CTP is heavily degraded by human interventions, and the peat deposit is becoming increasingly susceptible to erosion and incision.

Results from the BRACE 1.5 study: Climate change impacts of 1.5 C and 2 C warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, B. C.; Anderson, B.; Monaghan, A. J.; Ren, X.; Sanderson, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2017-12-01

In 2015, 195 countries negotiated the Paris Agreement on climate change, which set long-term goals of limiting global mean warming to well below 2 C and possibly 1.5 C. This event stimulated substantial scientific interest in climate outcomes and impacts on society associated with those levels of warming. Recently, the first set of global climate model simulations explicitly designed to meet those targets were undertaken with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) for use by the research community (Sanderson et al, accepted). The BRACE 1.5 project models societal impacts from these climate outcomes, combined with assumptions about future socioeconomic conditions according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. These analyses build on a recently completed study of the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate changE (BRACE), published as a set of 20 papers in Climatic Change, which examined the difference in impacts between two higher scenarios resulting in about 2.5 C and 3.7 C warming by late this century. BRACE 1.5 consists of a set of six papers to be submitted to a special collection in Environmental Research Letters that takes a similar approach but focuses on impacts at 1.5 and 2 C warming. We ask whether impacts differ substantially between the two climate scenarios, accounting for uncertainty in climate outcomes through the use of initial condition ensembles of CESM simulations, and in societal conditions by using alternative SSP-based development pathways. Impact assessment focuses on the health and agricultural sectors; modeling approaches include the use of a global mutli-region CGE model for economic analysis, both a process-based and an empirical crop model, a model of spatial population change, a model of climatic suitability for the aedes aegypti mosquito, and an epidemiological model of heat-related mortality. A methodological analysis also evaluates the use of climate model emulation techniques for providing climate information sufficient to support impact assessment in low warming scenarios.

New methods in hydrologic modeling and decision support for culvert flood risk under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosner, A.; Letcher, B. H.; Vogel, R. M.; Rees, P. S.

2015-12-01

Assessing culvert flood vulnerability under climate change poses an unusual combination of challenges. We seek a robust method of planning for an uncertain future, and therefore must consider a wide range of plausible future conditions. Culverts in our case study area, northwestern Massachusetts, USA, are predominantly found in small, ungaged basins. The need to predict flows both at numerous sites and under numerous plausible climate conditions requires a statistical model with low data and computational requirements. We present a statistical streamflow model that is driven by precipitation and temperature, allowing us to predict flows without reliance on reference gages of observed flows. The hydrological analysis is used to determine each culvert's risk of failure under current conditions. We also explore the hydrological response to a range of plausible future climate conditions. These results are used to determine the tolerance of each culvert to future increases in precipitation. In a decision support context, current flood risk as well as tolerance to potential climate changes are used to provide a robust assessment and prioritization for culvert replacements.

Post-glacial Paleo-oceanographic and Paleo-climatic Conditions and Linkages Along the West Coast of Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dallimore, A.; Enkin, R. J.; McKechnie, I.

2006-12-01

Along the west coast of Canada, our continuing studies of annually laminated marine sediments in anoxic fjords illustrate the changing environment as glaciers retreated from this area about 12 ka y BP. New data from mid-coastal British Columbia expands our knowledge of the interplay between climate and ocean dynamics in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, and defines the evolution of modern climate conditions as ice receded from the coast, followed by the establishment of modern oceanographic and climatic conditions about 6,000 ky BP. The Late Pleistocene and Holocene record also marks dramatic changes in sea level, climate, coastal oceanographic dynamics and glacial sedimentary source and transport, with implications for the possibility of early human migration routes and glacial refugia. Changes in pre-historical aboriginal settlement sites and food sources also give indications of a dynamic Holocene land and seascape as modern conditions became established. Excellent chronological control is provided by complementary yet independent dating methods including radiocarbon dates on both plants and shells, identification of the Mazama Ash, varve counting and paleomagnetic/paleosecular variation correlations.

The Response of Different Audiences to Place-based Communication about the Role of Climate Change in Extreme Weather Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halperin, A.; Walton, P.

2015-12-01

As the science of extreme event attribution grows, there is an increasing need to understand how the public responds to this type of climate change communication. Extreme event attribution has the unprecedented potential to locate the effects of climate change in the here and now, but there is little information about how different facets of the public might respond to these local framings of climate change. Drawing on theories of place attachment and psychological distance, this paper explores how people with different beliefs and values shift their willingness to mitigate and adapt to climate change in response to local or global communication of climate change impacts. Results will be presented from a recent survey of over 600 Californians who were each presented with one of three experimental conditions: 1) a local framing of the role of climate change in the California drought 2) a global framing of climate change and droughts worldwide, or 3) a control condition of no text. Participants were categorized into groups based on their prior beliefs about climate change according to the Six Americas classification scheme (Leiserowitz et al., 2011). The results from the survey in conjunction with qualitative results from follow-up interviews shed insight into the importance of place in communicating climate change for people in each of the Six Americas. Additional results examine the role of gender and political affiliation in mediating responses to climate change communication. Despite research that advocates unequivocally for local framing of climate change, this study offers a more nuanced perspective of under which circumstances extreme event attribution might be an effective tool for changing behaviors. These results could be useful for scientists who wish to gain a better understanding of how their event attribution research is perceived or for educators who want to target their message to audiences where it could have the most impact.

Assessing effects of variation in global climate data sets on spatial predictions from climate envelope models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Watling, James I.; Fletcher, Robert J.; Speroterra, Carolina; Bucklin, David N.; Brandt, Laura A.; Pearlstine, Leonard G.; Escribano, Yesenia; Mazzotti, Frank J.

2014-01-01

Climate change poses new challenges for natural resource managers. Predictive modeling of species–environment relationships using climate envelope models can enhance our understanding of climate change effects on biodiversity, assist in assessment of invasion risk by exotic organisms, and inform life-history understanding of individual species. While increasing interest has focused on the role of uncertainty in future conditions on model predictions, models also may be sensitive to the initial conditions on which they are trained. Although climate envelope models are usually trained using data on contemporary climate, we lack systematic comparisons of model performance and predictions across alternative climate data sets available for model training. Here, we seek to fill that gap by comparing variability in predictions between two contemporary climate data sets to variability in spatial predictions among three alternative projections of future climate. Overall, correlations between monthly temperature and precipitation variables were very high for both contemporary and future data. Model performance varied across algorithms, but not between two alternative contemporary climate data sets. Spatial predictions varied more among alternative general-circulation models describing future climate conditions than between contemporary climate data sets. However, we did find that climate envelope models with low Cohen's kappa scores made more discrepant spatial predictions between climate data sets for the contemporary period than did models with high Cohen's kappa scores. We suggest conservation planners evaluate multiple performance metrics and be aware of the importance of differences in initial conditions for spatial predictions from climate envelope models.

Climate Driven Life Histories: The Case of the Mediterranean Storm Petrel

PubMed Central

Soldatini, Cecilia; Albores-Barajas, Yuri Vladimir; Massa, Bruno; Gimenez, Olivier

2014-01-01

Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time. PMID:24728099

Climate effects on the distribution of wetland habitats and connectivity in networks of migratory waterbirds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellisario, Bruno; Cerfolli, Fulvio; Nascetti, Giuseppe

2014-07-01

The establishment and maintenance of conservation areas are among the most common measures to mitigate the loss of biodiversity. However, recent advances in conservation biology have challenged the reliability of such areas to cope with variation in climate conditions. Climate change can reshuffle the geographic distribution of species, but in many cases suitable habitats become scarce or unavailable, limiting the ability to migrate or adapt in response to modified environments. In this respect, the extent to which existing protected areas are able to compensate changes in habitat conditions to ensure the persistence of species still remains unclear. We used a spatially explicit model to measure the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of wetland habitats and connectivity of Natura 2000 sites in Italy. The effects of climate change were measured on the potential for water accumulation in a given site, as a surrogate measure for the persistence of aquatic ecosystems and their associated migratory waterbirds. Climate impacts followed a geographic trend, changing the distribution of suitable habitats for migrants and highlighting a latitudinal threshold beyond which the connectivity reaches a sudden collapse. Our findings show the relative poor reliability of most sites in dealing with changing habitat conditions and ensure the long-term connectivity, with possible consequences for the persistence of species. Although alterations of climate suitability and habitat destruction could impact critical areas for migratory waterbirds, more research is needed to evaluate all possible long-term effects on the connectivity of migratory networks.

Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine.

PubMed

Mosedale, Jonathan R; Abernethy, Kirsten E; Smart, Richard E; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2016-11-01

The cultivation of grapevines for winemaking, known as viticulture, is widely cited as a climate-sensitive agricultural system that has been used as an indicator of both historic and contemporary climate change. Numerous studies have questioned the viability of major viticulture regions under future climate projections. We review the methods used to study the impacts of climate change on viticulture in the light of what is known about the effects of climate and weather on the yields and quality of vineyard harvests. Many potential impacts of climate change on viticulture, particularly those associated with a change in climate variability or seasonal weather patterns, are rarely captured. Key biophysical characteristics of viticulture are often unaccounted for, including the variability of grapevine phenology and the exploitation of microclimatic niches that permit successful cultivation under suboptimal macroclimatic conditions. We consider how these same biophysical characteristics permit a variety of strategies by which viticulture can adapt to changing climatic conditions. The ability to realize these strategies, however, is affected by uneven exposure to risks across the winemaking sector, and the evolving capacity for decision-making within and across organizational boundaries. The role grape provenance plays in shaping perceptions of wine value and quality illustrates how conflicts of interest influence decisions about adaptive strategies within the industry. We conclude by considering what lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

AgMIP Climate Data and Scenarios for Integrated Assessment. Chapter 3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; Winter, Jonathan M.; McDermid, Sonali P.; Hudson, Nicholas I.

2015-01-01

Climate change presents a great challenge to the agricultural sector as changes in precipitation, temperature, humidity, and circulation patterns alter the climatic conditions upon which many agricultural systems rely. Projections of future climate conditions are inherently uncertain owing to a lack of clarity on how society will develop, policies that may be implemented to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions, and complexities in modeling the atmosphere, ocean, land, cryosphere, and biosphere components of the climate system. Global climate models (GCMs) are based on well-established physics of each climate component that enable the models to project climate responses to changing GHG concentration scenarios (Stocker et al., 2013).The most recent iteration of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5; Taylor et al., 2012) utilized representative concentration pathways (RCPs) to cover the range of plausible GHG concentrations out past the year 2100, with RCP8.5 representing an extreme scenario and RCP4.5 representing a lower concentrations scenario (Moss et al., 2010).

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-11-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and the protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss (e.g., via increased evapotranspiration and lower growing season flows leading to reduced riparian wetland inundation) or altered land use patterns. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrient loads in the snowmelt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, western US. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that, in the Sprague River, (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high-flow season under warmer, wetter climate projections or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

Projecting malaria hazard from climate change in eastern Africa using large ensembles to estimate uncertainty.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Tompkins, Adrian M; Caminade, Cyril; Jones, Anne E; Nikulin, Grigory; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

The effect of climate change on the spatiotemporal dynamics of malaria transmission is studied using an unprecedented ensemble of climate projections, employing three diverse bias correction and downscaling techniques, in order to partially account for uncertainty in climate- driven malaria projections. These large climate ensembles drive two dynamical and spatially explicit epidemiological malaria models to provide future hazard projections for the focus region of eastern Africa. While the two malaria models produce very distinct transmission patterns for the recent climate, their response to future climate change is similar in terms of sign and spatial distribution, with malaria transmission moving to higher altitudes in the East African Community (EAC) region, while transmission reduces in lowland, marginal transmission zones such as South Sudan. The climate model ensemble generally projects warmer and wetter conditions over EAC. The simulated malaria response appears to be driven by temperature rather than precipitation effects. This reduces the uncertainty due to the climate models, as precipitation trends in tropical regions are very diverse, projecting both drier and wetter conditions with the current state-of-the-art climate model ensemble. The magnitude of the projected changes differed considerably between the two dynamical malaria models, with one much more sensitive to climate change, highlighting that uncertainty in the malaria projections is also associated with the disease modelling approach.

The Moving Target of Climate Mitigation: Examples from the Energy Sector in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tarroja, B.; AghaKouchak, A.; Forrest, K.; Chiang, F.; Samuelsen, S.

2016-12-01

In response to the concerns of climate change-induced impacts on human health, environmental integrity, and the secure operation of resource supply infrastructures, strategies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of major societal sectors have been in development. In the energy sector, these strategies are based in low carbon primary energy deployment, increased energy efficiency, and implementing complementary technologies for operational resilience. While these strategies are aimed at climate mitigation, a degree of climate change-induced impacts will occur by the time of their deployment, and many of these impacts can compromise the effectiveness of these climate mitigation strategies. In order to develop climate mitigation strategies that will achieve their GHG reduction and other goals, the impact that climate change-induced conditions can have on different components of climate mitigation strategies must be understood. This presentation will highlight three examples of how climate change-induced conditions affect components of climate mitigation strategies in California: through impacts on 1) hydropower generation, 2) renewable potential for geothermal and solar thermal resources to form part of the renewable resource portfolio, and 3) the magnitudes and shapes of the electric load demand that must be met sustainably. These studies are part of a larger, overarching project to understand how climate change impacts the energy system and how to develop a sustainable energy infrastructure that is resilient against these impacts.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sork, Victoria L.; Davis, Frank W.; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan L.; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-01-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata N??e, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Gene movement and genetic association with regional climate gradients in California valley oak (Quercus lobata Née) in the face of climate change.

PubMed

Sork, Victoria L; Davis, Frank W; Westfall, Robert; Flint, Alan; Ikegami, Makihiko; Wang, Hongfang; Grivet, Delphine

2010-09-01

Rapid climate change jeopardizes tree populations by shifting current climate zones. To avoid extinction, tree populations must tolerate, adapt, or migrate. Here we investigate geographic patterns of genetic variation in valley oak, Quercus lobata Née, to assess how underlying genetic structure of populations might influence this species' ability to survive climate change. First, to understand how genetic lineages shape spatial genetic patterns, we examine historical patterns of colonization. Second, we examine the correlation between multivariate nuclear genetic variation and climatic variation. Third, to illustrate how geographic genetic variation could interact with regional patterns of 21st Century climate change, we produce region-specific bioclimatic distributions of valley oak using Maximum Entropy (MAXENT) models based on downscaled historical (1971-2000) and future (2070-2100) climate grids. Future climatologies are based on a moderate-high (A2) carbon emission scenario and two different global climate models. Chloroplast markers indicate historical range-wide connectivity via colonization, especially in the north. Multivariate nuclear genotypes show a strong association with climate variation that provides opportunity for local adaptation to the conditions within their climatic envelope. Comparison of regional current and projected patterns of climate suitability indicates that valley oaks grow in distinctly different climate conditions in different parts of their range. Our models predict widely different regional outcomes from local displacement of a few kilometres to hundreds of kilometres. We conclude that the relative importance of migration, adaptation, and tolerance are likely to vary widely for populations among regions, and that late 21st Century conditions could lead to regional extinctions.

Hydrologic Response and Watershed Sensitivity to Climate Warming in California's Sierra Nevada

PubMed Central

Null, Sarah E.; Viers, Joshua H.; Mount, Jeffrey F.

2010-01-01

This study focuses on the differential hydrologic response of individual watersheds to climate warming within the Sierra Nevada mountain region of California. We describe climate warming models for 15 west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds in California under unimpaired conditions using WEAP21, a weekly one-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. Incremental climate warming alternatives increase air temperature uniformly by 2°, 4°, and 6°C, but leave other climatic variables unchanged from observed values. Results are analyzed for changes in mean annual flow, peak runoff timing, and duration of low flow conditions to highlight which watersheds are most resilient to climate warming within a region, and how individual watersheds may be affected by changes to runoff quantity and timing. Results are compared with current water resources development and ecosystem services in each watershed to gain insight into how regional climate warming may affect water supply, hydropower generation, and montane ecosystems. Overall, watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada are most vulnerable to decreased mean annual flow, southern-central watersheds are most susceptible to runoff timing changes, and the central portion of the range is most affected by longer periods with low flow conditions. Modeling results suggest the American and Mokelumne Rivers are most vulnerable to all three metrics, and the Kern River is the most resilient, in part from the high elevations of the watershed. Our research seeks to bridge information gaps between climate change modeling and regional management planning, helping to incorporate climate change into the development of regional adaptation strategies for Sierra Nevada watersheds. PMID:20368984

Assessment of the impact of climate shifts on malaria transmission in the Sahel.

PubMed

Bomblies, Arne; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2009-09-01

Climate affects malaria transmission through a complex network of causative pathways. We seek to evaluate the impact of hypothetical climate change scenarios on malaria transmission in the Sahel by using a novel mechanistic, high spatial- and temporal-resolution coupled hydrology and agent-based entomology model. The hydrology model component resolves individual precipitation events and individual breeding pools. The impact of future potential climate shifts on the representative Sahel village of Banizoumbou, Niger, is estimated by forcing the model of Banizoumbou environment with meteorological data from two locations along the north-south climatological gradient observed in the Sahel--both for warmer, drier scenarios from the north and cooler, wetter scenarios from the south. These shifts in climate represent hypothetical but historically realistic climate change scenarios. For Banizoumbou climatic conditions (latitude 13.54 N), a shift toward cooler, wetter conditions may dramatically increase mosquito abundance; however, our modeling results indicate that the increased malaria transmissibility is not simply proportional to the precipitation increase. The cooler, wetter conditions increase the length of the sporogonic cycle, dampening a large vectorial capacity increase otherwise brought about by increased mosquito survival and greater overall abundance. Furthermore, simulations varying rainfall event frequency demonstrate the importance of precipitation patterns, rather than simply average or time-integrated precipitation, as a controlling factor of these dynamics. Modeling results suggest that in addition to changes in temperature and total precipitation, changes in rainfall patterns are very important to predict changes in disease susceptibility resulting from climate shifts. The combined effect of these climate-shift-induced perturbations can be represented with the aid of a detailed mechanistic model.

The evolution of climatic niches in squamate reptiles.

PubMed

Pie, Marcio R; Campos, Leonardo L F; Meyer, Andreas L S; Duran, Andressa

2017-07-12

Despite the remarkable diversity found in squamate reptiles, most of their species tend to be found in warm/dry environments, suggesting that climatic requirements played a crucial role in their diversification, yet little is known about the evolution of their climatic niches. In this study, we integrate climatic information associated with the geographical distribution of 1882 squamate species and their phylogenetic relationships to investigate the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in squamates, both over time and among lineages. We found that changes in climatic niche dynamics were pronounced over their recent squamate evolutionary history, and we identified extensive evidence for rate heterogeneity in squamate climatic niche evolution. Most rate shifts involved accelerations, particularly over the past 50 Myr. Most squamates occupy similar regions of the climatic niche space, with only a few lineages diversifying into colder and humid climatic conditions. The changes from arid to mesic conditions in some regions of the globe may have provided opportunities for climatic niche evolution, although most lineages tended to remain near their ancestral niche. Variation in rates of climatic niche evolution seems common, particularly in response to the availability of new climatic conditions over evolutionary time. © 2017 The Author(s).

Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osland, Michael J.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; Day, Richard H.; Gabler, Christopher A.; Stagg, Camille L.; Grace, James B.

2016-01-01

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate-change related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.

Pathogen-Host Associations and Predicted Range Shifts of Human Monkeypox in Response to Climate Change in Central Africa

PubMed Central

Thomassen, Henri A.; Fuller, Trevon; Asefi-Najafabady, Salvi; Shiplacoff, Julia A. G.; Mulembakani, Prime M.; Blumberg, Seth; Johnston, Sara C.; Kisalu, Neville K.; Kinkela, Timothée L.; Fair, Joseph N.; Wolfe, Nathan D.; Shongo, Robert L.; LeBreton, Matthew; Meyer, Hermann; Wright, Linda L.; Muyembe, Jean-Jacques; Buermann, Wolfgang; Okitolonda, Emile; Hensley, Lisa E.; Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Smith, Thomas B.; Rimoin, Anne W.

2013-01-01

Climate change is predicted to result in changes in the geographic ranges and local prevalence of infectious diseases, either through direct effects on the pathogen, or indirectly through range shifts in vector and reservoir species. To better understand the occurrence of monkeypox virus (MPXV), an emerging Orthopoxvirus in humans, under contemporary and future climate conditions, we used ecological niche modeling techniques in conjunction with climate and remote-sensing variables. We first created spatially explicit probability distributions of its candidate reservoir species in Africa's Congo Basin. Reservoir species distributions were subsequently used to model current and projected future distributions of human monkeypox (MPX). Results indicate that forest clearing and climate are significant driving factors of the transmission of MPX from wildlife to humans under current climate conditions. Models under contemporary climate conditions performed well, as indicated by high values for the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), and tests on spatially randomly and non-randomly omitted test data. Future projections were made on IPCC 4th Assessment climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2080, ranging from more conservative to more aggressive, and representing the potential variation within which range shifts can be expected to occur. Future projections showed range shifts into regions where MPX has not been recorded previously. Increased suitability for MPX was predicted in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. Models developed here are useful for identifying areas where environmental conditions may become more suitable for human MPX; targeting candidate reservoir species for future screening efforts; and prioritizing regions for future MPX surveillance efforts. PMID:23935820

Impact of Desiccation of Aral Sea on the Regional Climate of Central Asia Using WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Ashish; Huang, Huei-Ping; Zavialov, Peter; Khan, Valentina

2018-01-01

This study explores the impacts of the desiccation of the Aral Sea and large-scale climate change on the regional climate of Central Asia in the post-1960 era. A series of climate downscaling experiments for the 1960's and 2000's decades were performed using the Weather Research and Forecast model at 12-km horizontal resolution. To quantify the impacts of the changing surface boundary condition, a set of simulations with an identical lateral boundary condition but different extents of the Aral Sea were performed. It was found that the desiccation of the Aral Sea leads to more snow (and less rain) as desiccated winter surface is relatively much colder than water surface. In summer, desiccation led to substantial warming over the Aral Sea. These impacts were largely confined to within the area covered by the former Aral Sea and its immediate vicinity, although desiccation of the Sea also led to minor cooling over the greater Central Asia in winter. A contrasting set of simulations with an identical surface boundary condition but different lateral boundary conditions produced more identifiable changes in regional climate over the greater Central Asia which was characterized by a warming trend in both winter and summer. Simulations also showed that while the desiccation of the Aral Sea has significant impacts on the local climate over the Sea, the climate over the greater Central Asia on inter-decadal time scale was more strongly influenced by the continental or global-scale climate change on that time scale.

Hotter and drier conditions in the near future (2010-2035) might paradoxically improve the general adaptive capacity of a viticultural social-ecological system in Roussillon, southern France, exposed to long-term climatic and economic changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lereboullet, Anne-Laure; Beltrando, Gérard

2014-05-01

Background: Wine production in Roussillon, southern France, has been subjected to deep structural changes in cultural practices since the 1970's, due to changes in demand and market organization. In this Mediterranean region, temperature and rainfall parameters have long been adapted to fortified wine production, but might be less suited to dry wine production, which is nowadays prevailing. The wine industry in Roussillon can be studied as a social-ecological system where local economical and social characteristics are strongly linked to physical inputs. Thus changes in climate, especially warming and drying trends that have been detected and projected by the IPCC in the Mediterranean basin, may disrupt the local economy and social organization in the long term. The aim of our study is to assess the role played by recent (1956-2010) and near-future (2010-2035) changes in temperature and rainfall inputs in the evolution of the system's adaptive capacity to combined long term climatic and economic changes. Methods: Our study combined quantitative and qualitative data. We first assessed recent exposure to climate change by analysing change in daily data of temperature and rainfall observed in Perpignan weather station from 1956 to 2010. Thirty-nine in-depth interviews with local producers and key stakeholders of the local wine industry helped us understand the impacts of recent climatic conditions in the system's adaptive capacity. Then, we measured future changes in temperature and rainfall based on daily data simulated by ARPEGE-Climat (SCRATCH10 dataset) at an 8-km spatial scale, for emission scenarios A2, A1B and B1, up to 2060. Based on the impacts of recent changes in the system, we inferred the possible impacts of future climate change on the system's equilibrium. Results and discussion: Climate data analyses show that changes in temperatures and rainfall patterns have occurred in Perpignan since the mid-1980's, and that current (2001-2010) conditions are likely to remain the same until the 2040's, then followed by a second step of warming and drying trend. During the last ten years, local farmers have been experiencing difficulties to combine challenges from an increasing competition in markets and from hotter and drier conditions. Helped by public subsidies, almost one-third of the vineyard was pulled out during that period. Up until the 2040's, with similar conditions, the local viticultural system should continue its transformation, favouring dynamic, proactive and enterprising farmers. Thus the composition of the farming community might change gradually, and count in the 2040's a majority of producers with a higher individual adaptive capacity than now. The timing and intensity of near-future climate change as measured by the climate model, combined to regional economic change, might thus be an asset to prepare and facilitate adaptation in the longer term.

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by more research on this emerging topic.

Potential of satellite-derived ecosystem functional attributes to anticipate species range shifts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Lomba, Angela; Sousa-Silva, Rita; Nieto-Lugilde, Diego; Alves, Paulo; Georges, Damien; Vicente, Joana R.; Honrado, João P.

2017-05-01

In a world facing rapid environmental changes, anticipating their impacts on biodiversity is of utmost relevance. Remotely-sensed Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) are promising predictors for Species Distribution Models (SDMs) by offering an early and integrative response of vegetation performance to environmental drivers. Species of high conservation concern would benefit the most from a better ability to anticipate changes in habitat suitability. Here we illustrate how yearly projections from SDMs based on EFAs could reveal short-term changes in potential habitat suitability, anticipating mid-term shifts predicted by climate-change-scenario models. We fitted two sets of SDMs for 41 plant species of conservation concern in the Iberian Peninsula: one calibrated with climate variables for baseline conditions and projected under two climate-change-scenarios (future conditions); and the other calibrated with EFAs for 2001 and projected annually from 2001 to 2013. Range shifts predicted by climate-based models for future conditions were compared to the 2001-2013 trends from EFAs-based models. Projections of EFAs-based models estimated changes (mostly contractions) in habitat suitability that anticipated, for the majority (up to 64%) of species, the mid-term shifts projected by traditional climate-change-scenario forecasting, and showed greater agreement with the business-as-usual scenario than with the sustainable-development one. This study shows how satellite-derived EFAs can be used as meaningful essential biodiversity variables in SDMs to provide early-warnings of range shifts and predictions of short-term fluctuations in suitable conditions for multiple species.

Shifts on reproductive phenology of tropical cerrado savanna trees and climate changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morellato, Patricia

2010-05-01

Phenology is the study of cyclic biological events and its relationship to abiotic factors. Timing of flowering, fruiting and leafing is highly correlated to environmental factors such as temperature, precipitation, irradiance and isolation. Accordingly, any change in these factors may have a direct effect on the initiation, intensity and duration of different phenophases. Tropical phenology has not contributed much for climatic change research since historical data sets are scarce and the absence of sharp seasons and distinct factors driving phenology makes difficult the detection of changes over time. One way to have insights on climate driven phenology shifts on tropical plants is through the comparison of plant phenology under different environmental conditions. Fragmentation of natural landscape has exposed plants to edge effects - the interaction between two adjacent ecosystems, when the two are separated by an abrupt transition - the edge, including both abiotic and biological changes on environmental conditions that likely affect plant phenology. The microclimatic conditions along edges have important direct biological effects on the reproductive phenology and fitness of plant species. One can expected that the abiotic edge effects on plant phenology may be similar to some extent to certain effects induced by climate change on plant phenology since both involve shifts on environmental conditions. Due to the threatened status and rich biodiversity of Brazilian Neotropical savanna, or the Brazilian Cerrado, the present study aimed to understand edge effects on cerrado savanna species. We compared micro environmental factors and phenology of several species on the edge and in the interior of cerrado savanna. Our first results indicated that shifts on the micro environmental condition may have driven changes in time, duration and intensity of species phenology and may give us insights on savanna responses to climate changes.

Modeling vulnerability of groundwater to pollution under future scenarios of climate change and biofuels-related land use change: a case study in North Dakota, USA.

PubMed

Li, Ruopu; Merchant, James W

2013-03-01

Modeling groundwater vulnerability to pollution is critical for implementing programs to protect groundwater quality. Most groundwater vulnerability modeling has been based on current hydrogeology and land use conditions. However, groundwater vulnerability is strongly dependent on factors such as depth-to-water, recharge and land use conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. In this research, a modeling framework, which employs three sets of models linked within a geographic information system (GIS) environment, was used to evaluate groundwater pollution risks under future climate and land use changes in North Dakota. The results showed that areas with high vulnerability will expand northward and/or northwestward in Eastern North Dakota under different scenarios. GIS-based models that account for future changes in climate and land use can help decision-makers identify potential future threats to groundwater quality and take early steps to protect this critical resource. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health Implications of Climate Change: a Review of the Literature About the Perception of the Public and Health Professionals.

PubMed

Hathaway, Julia; Maibach, Edward W

2018-03-01

Through a systematic search of English language peer-reviewed studies, we assess how health professionals and the public, worldwide, perceive the health implications of climate change. Among health professionals, perception that climate change is harming health appears to be high, although self-assessed knowledge is low, and perceived need to learn more is high. Among the public, few North Americans can list any health impacts of climate change, or who is at risk, but appear to view climate change as harmful to health. Among vulnerable publics in Asia and Africa, awareness of increasing health harms due to specific changing climatic conditions is high. Americans across the political and climate change opinion spectra appear receptive to information about the health aspects of climate change, although findings are mixed. Health professionals feel the need to learn more, and the public appears open to learning more, about the health consequences of climate change.

Reproductive responses of an apex predator to changing climatic conditions

Treesearch

Susan Rebecca Salafsky

2015-01-01

Apex predators are ideal subjects for evaluating the effects of changing climatic conditions on the productivity of forested landscapes, because the quality of their breeding habitat depends primarily on the availability of resources at lower trophic levels. Identifying the environmental factors that influence the reproductive output of apex predators can, therefore,...

Future climate change impact assessment of watershed scale hydrologic processes in Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model coupled with a physically-based hydrology modelo.

PubMed

Amin, M Z M; Shaaban, A J; Ercan, A; Ishida, K; Kavvas, M L; Chen, Z Q; Jang, S

2017-01-01

Impacts of climate change on the hydrologic processes under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate and physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of future climate change projections. An ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations from coarse resolution global climate models' (GCMs) projections for the 21st century was dynamically downscaled to 6km resolution over Peninsular Malaysia by a regional climate model, which was then coupled with the watershed hydrology model WEHY through the atmospheric boundary layer over Muda and Dungun watersheds. Hydrologic simulations were carried out at hourly increments and at hillslope-scale in order to assess the impacts of climate change on the water balances and flooding conditions in the 21st century. The coupled regional climate and hydrology model was simulated for a duration of 90years for each of the 15 realizations. It is demonstrated that the increase in mean monthly flows due to the impact of expected climate change during 2040-2100 is statistically significant from April to May and from July to October at Muda watershed. Also, the increase in mean monthly flows is shown to be significant in November during 2030-2070 and from November to December during 2070-2100 at Dungun watershed. In other words, the impact of the expected climate change will be significant during the northeast and southwest monsoon seasons at Muda watershed and during the northeast monsoon season at Dungun watershed. Furthermore, the flood frequency analyses for both watersheds indicated an overall increasing trend in the second half of the 21st century. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Lichen communities and species indicate climate thresholds in southeast and south-central Alaska, USA

Treesearch

Heather T. Root; Bruce McCune; Sarah Jovan

2014-01-01

Because of their unique physiology, lichen communities are highly sensitive to climatic conditions,making them ideal bioindicators for climate change. Southeast and south-central Alaska host diverse and abundant lichen communities and are faced with a more rapidly changing climate than many more southerly latitudes. We develop sensitive lichen-based indicators for...

Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species: implications under climate change

Treesearch

Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Michael C. Dietze

2008-01-01

As changes in climate become more apparent, ecologists face the challenge of predicting species responses to the new conditions. Most forecasts are based on climate envelopes (CE), correlative approaches that project future distributions on the basis of the current climate often assuming some dispersal lag. One major caveat with this approach is that it ignores the...

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

Relevance of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection Data for Hydrodynamics and Water Quality Modelling of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenberg, R.; Vigouroux, G.; Chen, Y.; Bring, A.; Kalantari, Z.; Prieto, C.; Destouni, G.

2017-12-01

The Baltic Sea, located in Northern Europe, is one of the world's largest body of brackish water, enclosed and surrounded by nine different countries. The magnitude of climate change may be particularly large in northern regions, and identifying its impacts on vulnerable inland waters and their runoff and nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea is an important and complex task. Exploration of such hydro-climatic impacts is needed to understand potential future changes in physical, ecological and water quality conditions in the regional coastal and marine waters. In this study, we investigate hydro-climatic changes and impacts on the Baltic Sea by synthesizing multi-model climate projection data from the CORDEX regional downscaling initiative (EURO- and Arctic- CORDEX domains, http://www.cordex.org/). We identify key hydro-climatic variable outputs of these models and assess model performance with regard to their projected temporal and spatial change behavior and impacts on different scales and coastal-marine parts, up to the whole Baltic Sea. Model spreading, robustness and impact implications for the Baltic Sea system are investigated for and through further use in simulations of coastal-marine hydrodynamics and water quality based on these key output variables and their change projections. Climate model robustness in this context is assessed by inter-model spreading analysis and observation data comparisons, while projected change implications are assessed by forcing of linked hydrodynamic and water quality modeling of the Baltic Sea based on relevant hydro-climatic outputs for inland water runoff and waterborne nutrient loading to the Baltic sea, as well as for conditions in the sea itself. This focused synthesis and analysis of hydro-climatically relevant output data of regional climate models facilitates assessment of reliability and uncertainty in projections of driver-impact changes of key importance for Baltic Sea physical, water quality and ecological conditions and their future evolution.

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures

PubMed Central

Friggens, Megan M.; Finch, Deborah M.

2015-01-01

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales. PMID:26700871

Implications of Climate Change for Bird Conservation in the Southwestern U.S. under Three Alternative Futures.

PubMed

Friggens, Megan M; Finch, Deborah M

2015-01-01

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy's warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus) and the Western yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus). Our goal was to provide site- and species-specific information that can be used by managers to identify areas for habitat conservation and/or restoration along the Rio Grande in New Mexico. We created models of suitable habitat for each species based on collection and survey samples and climate, biophysical, and vegetation data. We projected habitat suitability under future climates by applying these models to conditions generated from three climate models for 2030, 2060 and 2090. By comparing current and future distributions, we identified how habitats are likely to change as a result of changing climate and the consequences of those changes for these bird species. We also examined whether land ownership of high value sites shifts under changing climate conditions. Habitat suitability models performed well. Biophysical characteristics were more important that climate conditions for predicting habitat suitability with distance to water being the single most important predictor. Climate, though less important, was still influential and led to declines of suitable habitat of more than 60% by 2090. For all species, suitable habitat tended to shrink over time within the study area leaving a few core areas of high importance. Overall, climate changes will increase habitat fragmentation and reduce breeding habitat patch size. The best strategy for conserving bird species within the Rio Grande will include measures to maintain and restore critical habitat refugia. This study provides an example of a presence-only habitat model that can be used to inform the management of species at intermediate scales.

Quantitative metrics for assessing predicted climate change pressure on North American tree species

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove

2013-01-01

Changing climate may pose a threat to forest tree species, forcing three potential population-level responses: toleration/adaptation, movement to suitable environmental conditions, or local extirpation. Assessments that prioritize and classify tree species for management and conservation activities in the face of climate change will need to incorporate estimates of the...

Climate change effects in El Yunque National Forest, Puerto Rico, and the Caribbean region

Treesearch

Lisa Nicole Jennings; Jamison Douglas; Emrys Treasure; Grizelle González

2014-01-01

Understanding the current and expected future conditions of natural resources under a changing climate is essential to making informed management decisions. However, the ever increasing volume of useful scientific information about climate change makes it difficult for managers and planners to effectively sort through and apply the emerging science. This report...

Migration out of 1930s Rural Eastern Oklahoma: Insights for Climate Change Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLeman, Robert

2006-01-01

The question of how communities and individuals adapt to changing climatic conditions is of pressing concern to scientists and policymakers in light of the growing evidence that human activity has modified the Earth's climate. A number of authors have suggested that widespread changes in human settlement and migration patterns may occur in…

Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Winter Tourism: Challenges for Ski Area Operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Damm, A.; Köberl, J.; Prettenthaler, F.; Töglhofer, C.

2012-04-01

Increasing temperatures and snow scarce winter seasons pose a big challenge for the winter tourism industry. Changing natural snow reliability influences tourism demand and ski area operators are faced with an enhanced need of technical snow production. The goal of the present research work is to analyze the economic effects of technical snow production under future climate conditions. Snowmaking as an adaptation strategy to climate change impacts on the ski tourism industry is already taken into consideration in several studies from a scientific perspective concerning snowmaking potentials under future climate conditions and the impacts on ski season length (e.g. Scott et al. 2003; Scott & McBoyle 2007; Hennessy et al. 2008; Steiger 2010). A few studies considered economic aspects of technical snowmaking (e.g. Teich et al. 2007; Gonseth 2008). However, a detailed analysis of the costs and benefits of snowmaking under future climate and snow conditions based on sophisticated climate and snow models has not been carried out yet. The present study addresses the gap of knowledge concerning the economic profitability of prospective snowmaking requirements under future climate scenarios. We carry out a detailed cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking under current and future climate conditions for a case study site in Styria (Austria) using dynamic investment models. The starting point of all economic calculations is the daily demand for artificial snow that determines the requirements for additional snowmaking investments and additional operating costs. The demand for artificial snow is delivered by the snow cover model AMUNDSEN (see Strasser et al. 2011) and is driven by four climate scenarios. Apart from future climate conditions the profitability of snowmaking depends on changes in costs and visitor numbers. The results of a ski tourism demand model analyzing daily visitor numbers and their dependencies of prevailing weather conditions enter the cost-revenue analysis of snowmaking and enable the determination of the immediate benefits in terms of additional revenues of ski ticket sales. Furthermore, we conduct an econometric analysis of how snowmaking investments changed ski ticket prices in previous years, as the positive effects of snowmaking on snow reliability could be offset in the longer term by the effects of higher prices for skiing, possibly resulting in lower demand.

Climate variability and causes: from the perspective of the Tharaka people of eastern Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Recha, Charles W.; Makokha, George L.; Shisanya, Chris A.

2017-12-01

The study assessed community understanding of climate variability in semi-arid Tharaka sub-county, Kenya. The study used four focus group discussions (FGD) ( N = 48) and a household survey ( N = 326) to obtain information from four agro-ecological zones (AEZs). The results were synthesized and descriptively presented. People in Tharaka sub-county are familiar with the term climate change and associate it with environmental degradation. There are, however, misconceptions and gaps in understanding the causes of climate change. There was a mismatch between community and individual perception of onset and cessation of rainfall—evidence that analysis of the impact of climate change should take into account the scale of interaction. To improve climate change knowledge, there is a need for climate change education by scientific institutions—to provide information on local climatic conditions and global and regional drivers of climate change to local communities.

Biological responses to environmental heterogeneity under future ocean conditions.

PubMed

Boyd, Philip W; Cornwall, Christopher E; Davison, Andrew; Doney, Scott C; Fourquez, Marion; Hurd, Catriona L; Lima, Ivan D; McMinn, Andrew

2016-08-01

Organisms are projected to face unprecedented rates of change in future ocean conditions due to anthropogenic climate-change. At present, marine life encounters a wide range of environmental heterogeneity from natural fluctuations to mean climate change. Manipulation studies suggest that biota from more variable marine environments have more phenotypic plasticity to tolerate environmental heterogeneity. Here, we consider current strategies employed by a range of representative organisms across various habitats - from short-lived phytoplankton to long-lived corals - in response to environmental heterogeneity. We then discuss how, if and when organismal responses (acclimate/migrate/adapt) may be altered by shifts in the magnitude of the mean climate-change signal relative to that for natural fluctuations projected for coming decades. The findings from both novel climate-change modelling simulations and prior biological manipulation studies, in which natural fluctuations are superimposed on those of mean change, provide valuable insights into organismal responses to environmental heterogeneity. Manipulations reveal that different experimental outcomes are evident between climate-change treatments which include natural fluctuations vs. those which do not. Modelling simulations project that the magnitude of climate variability, along with mean climate change, will increase in coming decades, and hence environmental heterogeneity will increase, illustrating the need for more realistic biological manipulation experiments that include natural fluctuations. However, simulations also strongly suggest that the timescales over which the mean climate-change signature will become dominant, relative to natural fluctuations, will vary for individual properties, being most rapid for CO2 (~10 years from present day) to 4 decades for nutrients. We conclude that the strategies used by biota to respond to shifts in environmental heterogeneity may be complex, as they will have to physiologically straddle wide-ranging timescales in the alteration of ocean conditions, including the need to adapt to rapidly rising CO2 and also acclimate to environmental heterogeneity in more slowly changing properties such as warming. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

U.S. Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center Science and Operational Plan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Sonya A.; Dalton, Melinda S.

2012-01-01

Climate change challenges many of the basic assumptions routinely used by conservation planners and managers, including the identification and prioritization of areas for conservation based on current environmental conditions and the assumption those conditions could be controlled by management actions. Climate change will likely alter important ecosystem drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain current environmental conditions into the future. Additionally, the potential for future conservation of non-conservation lands may be affected by climate change, which further complicates resource planning. Potential changes to ecosystem drivers, as a result of climate change, highlight the need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change. The U.S. Congress, recognized the potential effects of climate change and authorized the creation of the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) in 2008. The directive of the NCCWSC is to produce science that supports resource-management agencies as they anticipate and adapt to the effects of climate change on fish, wildlife, and their habitats. On September 14, 2009, U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010), which expanded the mandate of the NCCWSC to address climate-change-related impacts on all DOI resources. Secretarial Order 3289 "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources," established the foundation of two partner-based conservation science entities: Climate Science Centers (CSC) and their primary partners, Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase the understanding of climate change, and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. The NCCWSC is establishing a network of eight DOI CSCs (Alaska, Southeast, Northwest, North Central, Pacific Islands, Southwest, Northeast, and South Central) that will work with a variety of partners and stakeholders to provide resource managers the tools and information they need to help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The Southeast CSC, a federally led research collaboration hosted by North Carolina State University, was established in 2010. The Southeast CSC brings together the expertise of federal and university scientists to address climate-change priority needs of federal, state, non-governmental, and tribal resource managers. This document is the first draft of a science and operational plan for the Southeast CSC. The document describes operational considerations, provides the context for climate-change impacts in the Southeastern United States, and establishes six major science themes the Southeast CSC will address in collaboration with partners. This document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change.

Modern maize hybrids in Northeast China exhibit increased yield potential and resource use efficiency despite adverse climate change.

PubMed

Chen, Xiaochao; Chen, Fanjun; Chen, Yanling; Gao, Qiang; Yang, Xiaoli; Yuan, Lixing; Zhang, Fusuo; Mi, Guohua

2013-03-01

The impact of global changes on food security is of serious concern. Breeding novel crop cultivars adaptable to climate change is one potential solution, but this approach requires an understanding of complex adaptive traits for climate-change conditions. In this study, plant growth, nitrogen (N) uptake, and yield in relation to climatic resource use efficiency of nine representative maize cultivars released between 1973 and 2000 in China were investigated in a 2-year field experiment under three N applications. The Hybrid-Maize model was used to simulate maize yield potential in the period from 1973 to 2011. During the past four decades, the total thermal time (growing degree days) increased whereas the total precipitation and sunshine hours decreased. This climate change led to a reduction of maize potential yield by an average of 12.9% across different hybrids. However, the potential yield of individual hybrids increased by 118.5 kg ha(-1)  yr(-1) with increasing year of release. From 1973 to 2000, the use efficiency of sunshine hours, thermal time, and precipitation resources increased by 37%, 40%, and 41%, respectively. The late developed hybrids showed less reduction in yield potential in current climate conditions than old cultivars, indicating some adaptation to new conditions. Since the mid-1990s, however, the yield impact of climate change exhibited little change, and even a slight worsening for new cultivars. Modern breeding increased ear fertility and grain-filling rate, and delayed leaf senescence without modification in net photosynthetic rate. The trade-off associated with delayed leaf senescence was decreased grain N concentration rather than increased plant N uptake, therefore N agronomic efficiency increased simultaneously. It is concluded that modern maize hybrids tolerate the climatic changes mainly by constitutively optimizing plant productivity. Maize breeding programs in the future should pay more attention to cope with the limiting climate factors specifically. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Evolution in response to climate change: in pursuit of the missing evidence.

PubMed

Merilä, Juha

2012-09-01

Climate change is imposing intensified and novel selection pressures on organisms by altering abiotic and biotic environmental conditions on Earth, but studies demonstrating genetic adaptation to climate change mediated selection are still scarce. Evidence is accumulating to indicate that both genetic and ecological constrains may often limit populations' abilities to adapt to large scale effects of climate warming. These constraints may predispose many organisms to respond to climate change with range shifts and phenotypic plasticity, rather than through evolutionary adaptation. In general, broad conclusions about the role of evolutionary adaptation in mitigating climate change induced fitness loss in the wild are as yet difficult to make. Copyright © 2012 WILEY Periodicals, Inc.

Irrigated sugarbeet sucrose content in relation to growing season climatic conditions in the northwest U.S.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The potential effects of changing climate on world food production have become a political and scientific focus. This study was conducted to investigate linkages between seasonal climatic conditions and sugarbeet sucrose content in southern Idaho and eastern Oregon. Sucrose content of irrigated suga...

Climate variability and nitrogen rate interactions affecting corn nitrogen use efficiency in Alabama

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nitrogen (N) fertilization is an important practice to increase yield; however, plant–soil interactions to in-season changes in climatic conditions result on site-specific responses of corn to nitrogen rates. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different climatic conditions and...

Climate Change Impact on Air Quality in High Resolution Simulation for Central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halenka, T.; Huszar, P.; Belda, M.

2009-04-01

Recently the effects of climate change on air-quality and vice-versa are studied quite extensively. In fact, even at regional and local scale especially the impact of climate change on the atmospheric composition and photochemical smog formation conditions can be significant when expecting e.g. more frequent appearance of heat waves etc. For the purpose of qualifying and quantifying the magnitude of such effects and to study the potential of climate forcing due to atmospheric chemistry/aerosols on regional scale, chemistry-transport model was coupled to RegCM on the Department of Meteorology and Environmental Protection, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Charles University in Prague, for the simulations in framework of the EC FP6 Project CECILIA. Off-line one way coupling enables the simulation of distribution of pollutants over 1991-2001 in very high resolution of 10 km is compared to the EMEP observations for the area of Central Europe. Simulations driven by climate change boundary conditions for time slices 1991-2000, 2041-2050 and 2091-2100 are presented to show the effect of climate change on the air quality in the region.

Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer.

PubMed

Paoli, Amélie; Weladji, Robert B; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

2018-01-01

In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species' reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates' births affects offspring survival and population's recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females' physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females' calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change.

Winter and spring climatic conditions influence timing and synchrony of calving in reindeer

PubMed Central

Paoli, Amélie; Holand, Øystein; Kumpula, Jouko

2018-01-01

In a context of climate change, a mismatch has been shown to occur between some species’ reproductive phenology and their environment. So far, few studies have either documented temporal trends in calving phenology or assessed which climatic variables influence the calving phenology in ungulate species, yet the phenology of ungulates’ births affects offspring survival and population’s recruitment rate. Using a long-term dataset (45 years) of birth dates of a semi-domesticated reindeer population in Kaamanen, North Finland, we show that calving season has advanced by ~ 7 days between 1970 and 2016. Advanced birth dates were associated with lower precipitation and a reduced snow cover in April and warmer temperatures in April-May. Improved females’ physical condition in late gestation due to warmer temperatures in April-May and reduced snow conditions in April probably accounted for such advance in calving date. On the other hand, a lengthening of the calving season was reported following a warmer temperature in January, a higher number of days when mean temperature exceeds 0°C in October-November and a decreasing snow cover from October to November. By affecting the inter-individual heterogeneity in the plastic response of females’ calving date to better climatic conditions in fall and winter, climatic variability contributed to weaken the calving synchrony in this herd. Whether variability in climatic conditions form environmental cues for the adaptation of calving phenology by females to climate change is however uncertain, but it is likely. As such this study enhances our understanding on how reproductive phenology of ungulate species would be affected by climate change. PMID:29694410

Dynamic response of airborne infections to climate change: predictions for varicella

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, R.; Mahmud, A. S.; Metcalf, C. J. E.

2017-12-01

Characterizing how climate change will alter the burden of infectious diseases has clear applications for public health policy. Despite our uniquely detailed understanding of the transmission process for directly transmitted infections, the impact of climate variables on these infections remains understudied. We develop a novel methodology for estimating the causal relationship between climate and directly transmitted infections, which combines an epidemiological model of disease transmission with panel regression techniques. Our method allows us to move beyond correlational approaches to studying the link between climate and infectious diseases. Further, we can generate semi-mechanistic projections of incidence across climate scenarios. We illustrate our approach using 30 years of reported cases of varicella, a common airborne childhood infection, across 32 states in Mexico. We find significantly increased varicella transmission in drier conditions. We use this to map potential changes in the magnitude and variability of varicella incidence in Mexico as a result of projected changes in future climate conditions. Our results indicate that the predicted decrease in humidity in Mexico towards the end of the century will increase incidence of varicella, all else equal, and that these changes in incidence will be non-uniform across the year.

Economic Evidence on the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Europe

PubMed Central

Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. METHODS The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). RESULTS A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. CONCLUSIONS Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe. PMID:25452694

Economic evidence on the health impacts of climate change in europe.

PubMed

Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina

2014-01-01

In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions threatening Europe.

Climate change conditions (elevated CO2 and temperature) and UV-B radiation affect grapevine (Vitis vinifera cv. Tempranillo) leaf carbon assimilation, altering fruit ripening rates.

PubMed

Martínez-Lüscher, J; Morales, F; Sánchez-Díaz, M; Delrot, S; Aguirreolea, J; Gomès, E; Pascual, I

2015-07-01

The increase in grape berry ripening rates associated to climate change is a growing concern for wine makers as it rises the alcohol content of the wine. The present work studied the combined effects of elevated CO2, temperature and UV-B radiation on leaf physiology and berry ripening rates. Three doses of UV-B: 0, 5.98, 9.66 kJm(-2)d(-1), and two CO2-temperature regimes: ambient CO2-24/14 °C (day/night) (current situation) and 700 ppm CO2-28/18 °C (climate change) were imposed to grapevine fruit-bearing cuttings from fruit set to maturity under greenhouse-controlled conditions. Photosynthetic performance was always higher under climate change conditions. High levels of UV-B radiation down regulated carbon fixation rates. A transient recovery took place at veraison, through the accumulation of flavonols and the increase of antioxidant enzyme activities. Interacting effects between UV-B and CO2-temperature regimes were observed for the lipid peroxidation, which suggests that UV-B may contribute to palliate the signs of oxidative damage induced under elevated CO2-temperature. Photosynthetic and ripening rates were correlated. Thereby, the hastening effect of climate change conditions on ripening, associated to higher rates of carbon fixation, was attenuated by UV-B radiation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

High intra-specific variation in avian body condition responses to climate limits generalisation across species

PubMed Central

van der Jeugd, Henk P.; van de Pol, Martijn

2018-01-01

It is generally assumed that populations of a species will have similar responses to climate change, and thereby that a single value of sensitivity will reflect species-specific responses. However, this assumption is rarely systematically tested. High intraspecific variation will have consequences for identifying species- or population-level traits that can predict differences in sensitivity, which in turn can affect the reliability of projections of future climate change impacts. We investigate avian body condition responses to changes in six climatic variables and how consistent and generalisable these responses are both across and within species, using 21 years of data from 46 common passerines across 80 Dutch sites. We show that body condition decreases with warmer spring/early summer temperatures and increases with higher humidity, but other climate variables do not show consistent trends across species. In the future, body condition is projected to decrease by 2050, mainly driven by temperature effects. Strikingly, populations of the same species generally responded just as differently as populations of different species implying that a single species signal is not meaningful. Consequently, species-level traits did not explain interspecific differences in sensitivities, rather population-level traits were more important. The absence of a clear species signal in body condition responses implies that generalisation and identifying species for conservation prioritisation is problematic, which sharply contrasts conclusions of previous studies on the climate sensitivity of phenology. PMID:29466460

Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S; Lombard, Claudia D; Valiulis, Jennifer M; Robinson, Nathan J; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

2015-11-17

The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21(st) century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100.

Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles

PubMed Central

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S.; Lombard, Claudia D.; Valiulis, Jennifer M.; Robinson, Nathan J.; Paladino, Frank V.; Spotila, James R.; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L.; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

2015-01-01

The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21st century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100. PMID:26572897

Global analysis of the effect of local climate on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S.; Lombard, Claudia D.; Valiulis, Jennifer M.; Robinson, Nathan J.; Paladino, Frank V.; Spotila, James R.; Fernández, Carlos; Rivas, Marga L.; Tucek, Jenny; Nel, Ronel; Oro, Daniel

2015-11-01

The most recent climate change projections show a global increase in temperatures along with precipitation changes throughout the 21st century. However, regional projections do not always match global projections and species with global distributions may exhibit varying regional susceptibility to climate change. Here we show the effect of local climatic conditions on the hatchling output of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at four nesting sites encompassing the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans. We found a heterogeneous effect of climate. Hatchling output increased with long-term precipitation in areas with dry climatic conditions (Playa Grande, Pacific Ocean and Sandy Point, Caribbean Sea), but the effect varied in areas where precipitation was high (Pacuare, Caribbean Sea) and was not detected at the temperate site (Maputaland, Indian Ocean). High air temperature reduced hatchling output only at the area experiencing seasonal droughts (Playa Grande). Climatic projections showed a drastic increase in air temperature and a mild decrease in precipitation at all sites by 2100. The most unfavorable conditions were projected for Sandy Point where hatching success has already declined over time along with precipitation levels. The heterogeneous effect of climate may lead to local extinctions of leatherback turtles in some areas but survival in others by 2100.

The Hydrological Evolution of Mars as Recorded at Gale Crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews-Hanna, J. C.; Horvath, D. G.

2017-12-01

The sedimentary deposits making up the Aeolis Mons sedimentary mound within Gale Crater preserve a record of the evolving hydrology and climate of Mars during the Late Noachian and Hesperian epochs. Aqueous sedimentary deposits including mudstones, deltaic deposits, and sulfate-cemented sediments indicate the past presence of liquid water on the surface. However, these observations alone do not strictly constrain the nature of the hydrology and climate at the time of deposition. We use models of the subsurface and surface hydrology to shed light on the conditions required to reproduce the observed deposits. Changes in the nature and composition of the deposits reflect changes in the balance between the surface and subsurface components of the hydrological cycle, driven by climate changes. Mudstones observed by the MSL rover at the base of the crater reflect lacustrine deposition under semi-arid conditions, with substantial fluid supply from both the surface (overland flow and direct precipitation) and subsurface. A transition at higher stratigraphic levels to sulfate-cemented sandstones required a change to a more arid climate, with the hydrology dominated by long-distance subsurface transport. Near the top of the mound, unaltered deposits indicate deposition under dry conditions, though this transition coincides with the natural limit on the rise of the water table imposed by the surrounding topography and does not require a change in climate. Erosion of the crater-filling sedimentary deposits to their present mound shape required a dramatic drop in the water table under hyper-arid conditions. Evidence for later lake stands in the Hesperian indicates transient returns to semi-arid conditions similar to those that prevailed during the Late Noachian. By coupling surface and orbital observations with hydrological modeling, we are able to make more specific constraints on the evolving climate and aridity of early Mars.

Using in situ management to conserve biodiversity under climate change.

PubMed

Greenwood, Owen; Mossman, Hannah L; Suggitt, Andrew J; Curtis, Robin J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2016-06-01

Successful conservation will increasingly depend on our ability to help species cope with climate change. While there has been much attention on accommodating or assisting range shifts, less has been given to the alternative strategy of helping species survive climate change through in situ management.Here we provide a synthesis of published evidence examining whether habitat management can be used to offset the adverse impacts on biodiversity of changes in temperature, water availability and sea-level rise. Our focus is on practical methods whereby the local environmental conditions experienced by organisms can be made more suitable.Many studies suggest that manipulating vegetation structure can alter the temperature and moisture conditions experienced by organisms, and several demonstrate that these altered conditions benefit species as regional climatic conditions become unsuitable. The effects of topography on local climatic conditions are even better understood, but the alteration of topography as a climate adaptation tool is not ingrained in conservation practice. Trials of topographic alteration in the field should therefore be a priority for future research.Coastal systems have the natural capacity to keep pace with climate change, but require sufficient sediment supplies and space for landward migration to do so. There is an extensive literature on managed realignment. While the underlying rationale is simple, successful implementation requires careful consideration of elevation and past land use. Even with careful management, restored habitats may not attain the physical and biological attributes of natural habitats. Synthesis and applications . The recent literature provides a compelling case that some of the adverse effects of climate change can be offset by appropriate management. However, much of the evidence for this is indirect and too few studies provide empirical tests of the long-term effectiveness of these management interventions. It is clear from the existing evidence that some techniques have a higher risk of failure or unexpected outcomes than others and managers will need to make careful choices about which to implement. We have assessed the strength of evidence of these approaches in order to demonstrate to conservation professionals the risks involved.

The idiosyncrasies of streams: local variability mitigates vulnerability of trout to changing conditions

Treesearch

Andrea Watts; Brooke Penaluna; Jason Dunham

2016-01-01

Land use and climate change are two key factors with the potential to affect stream conditions and fish habitat. Since the 1950s, Washington and Oregon have required forest practices designed to mitigate the effects of timber harvest on streams and fish. Yet questions remain about the extent to which these practices are effective. Add in the effects of climate change—...

The Status of Mars Climate Change Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, Robert M.

1997-01-01

Researchers have reviewed the evidence that the climate of Mars has changed throughout its history. In this paper, the discussion focuses on where we stand in terms of modeling these climate changes. For convenience, three distinct types of climate regimes are considered: very early in the planet's history (more than 3.5 Ga), when warm wet conditions are thought to have prevailed; the bulk of the planet's history (3.5-1 Ga), during which episodic ocean formation has been suggested; and relatively recently in the planet's history (less than 1 Ga), when orbitally induced climate change is thought to have occurred.

An Overview of Occupational Risks From Climate Change.

PubMed

Applebaum, Katie M; Graham, Jay; Gray, George M; LaPuma, Peter; McCormick, Sabrina A; Northcross, Amanda; Perry, Melissa J

2016-03-01

Changes in atmosphere and temperature are affecting multiple environmental indicators from extreme heat events to global air quality. Workers will be uniquely affected by climate change, and the occupational impacts of major shifts in atmospheric and weather conditions need greater attention. Climate change-related exposures most likely to differentially affect workers in the USA and globally include heat, ozone, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, other chemicals, pathogenic microorganisms, vector-borne diseases, violence, and wildfires. Epidemiologic evidence documents a U-, J-, or V-shaped relationship between temperature and mortality. Whereas heat-related morbidity and mortality risks are most evident in agriculture, many other outdoor occupational sectors are also at risk, including construction, transportation, landscaping, firefighting, and other emergency response operations. The toxicity of chemicals change under hyperthermic conditions, particularly for pesticides and ozone. Combined with climate-related changes in chemical transport and distribution, these interactions represent unique health risks specifically to workers. Links between heat and interpersonal conflict including violence require attention because they pose threats to the safety of emergency medicine, peacekeeping and humanitarian relief, and public safety professionals. Recommendations for anticipating how US workers will be most susceptible to climate change include formal monitoring systems for agricultural workers; modeling scenarios focusing on occupational impacts of extreme climate events including floods, wildfires, and chemical spills; and national research agenda setting focusing on control and mitigation of occupational susceptibility to climate change.

Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

2013-12-01

Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) drives the economy of many African countries and it is mainly rain-fed agriculture used for subsistence. Increasing temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and more frequent droughts may lead to a substantial decrease of crop yields. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture are expected to be significant and extensive in the SSA due to the shortening of the growing seasons and the increasing of water-stress risk. Differences in Agro-Ecological Zones and geographical characteristics of SSA influence the diverse impacts of climate change, which can greatly differ across the continent and within countries. The vulnerability of African Countries to climate change is aggravated by the low adaptive capacity of the continent, due to the increasing of its population, the widespread poverty, and other social factors. In this contest, the assessment of climate change impact on agricultural sector has a particular interest to stakeholder and policy makers, in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that could be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and to develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these threats. For these reasons, the evaluation of climate change impacts for key crops in SSA was made exploring climate uncertainty and focusing on short period monitoring, which is particularly useful for food security and risk management analysis. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT-CSM are tools that allow to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were used, after a parameterization phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop phenology and production. Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for the different Agro-Ecological Zones. The climate impact was assessed using future climate prediction, statistically and/or dynamically downscaled, for specific areas. Direct and indirect effects of different CO2 concentrations projected for the future periods were separately explored to estimate their effects on crops. Several adaptation strategies (e.g., introduction of full irrigation, shift of the ordinary sowing/planting date, changes in the ordinary fertilization management) were also evaluated with the aim to reduce the negative impact of climate change on crop production. The results of the study, analyzed at local, AEZ and country level, will be discussed.

Response of northern hemisphere environmental and atmospheric conditions to climate changes using Greenland aerosol records from the Eemian to the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, H.

2017-12-01

The Northern Hemisphere experienced dramatic climate changes over the last glacial cycle, including vast ice sheet expansion and frequent abrupt climate events. Moreover, high northern latitudes during the last interglacial (Eemian) were warmer than today and may provide guidance for future climate change scenarios. However, little evidence exists regarding the environmental alterations connected to these climate changes. Using aerosol concentration records in decadal resolution from the North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling (NEEM) over the last 128,000 years we extract quantitative information on environmental changes, including the first comparison of northern hemisphere environmental conditions between the warmer than present Eemian and the early Holocene. Separating source changes from transport effects, we find that changes in the ice concentration greatly overestimate the changes in atmospheric concentrations in the aerosol source region, the latter mirroring changes in aerosol emissions. Glacial times were characterized by a strong reduction in terrestrial biogenic emissions (only 10-20% of the early Holocene value) reflecting the net loss of vegetated area in mid to high latitudes, while rapid climate changes during the glacial had essentially no effect on terrestrial biogenic aerosol emissions. An increase in terrestrial dust emissions of approximately a factor of eight during peak glacial and cold stadial intervals indicates higher aridity and dust storm activity in Asian deserts. Glacial sea salt aerosol emissions increased only moderately (by approximately 50%), likely due to sea ice expansion, while marked stadial/interstadial variations in sea salt concentrations in the ice reflect mainly changes in wet deposition en route. Eemian ice contains lower aerosol concentrations than ice from the early Holocene, due to shortened atmospheric residence time during the warmer Eemian, suggesting that generally 2°C warmer climate in high northern latitudes did not change environmental conditions controlling aerosol formation in the source regions significantly.

Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses.

PubMed

Cang, F Alice; Wilson, Ashley A; Wiens, John J

2016-09-01

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity, especially if species cannot adapt to changing climatic conditions quickly enough. A critical question is how quickly climatic niches change, and if this speed is sufficient to prevent extinction as climates warm. Here, we address this question in the grass family (Poaceae). Grasses are fundamental to one of Earth's most widespread biomes (grasslands), and provide roughly half of all calories consumed by humans (including wheat, rice, corn and sorghum). We estimate rates of climatic niche change in 236 species and compare these with rates of projected climate change by 2070. Our results show that projected climate change is consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. Although these results do not show directly what will happen under global warming, they have troubling implications for a major biome and for human food resources. © 2016 The Author(s).

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change.

PubMed

Akerlof, Karen L; Delamater, Paul L; Boules, Caroline R; Upperman, Crystal R; Mitchell, Clifford S

2015-12-04

Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change's health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change-due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards-already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents' climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

Rainfall and temperatures changes have confounding impacts on Phytophthora cinnamomi occurrence risk in the southwestern USA under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Thompson, Sally E; Levin, Simon; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio

2014-04-01

Global change will simultaneously impact many aspects of climate, with the potential to exacerbate the risks posed by plant pathogens to agriculture and the natural environment; yet, most studies that explore climate impacts on plant pathogen ranges consider individual climatic factors separately. In this study, we adopt a stochastic modeling approach to address multiple pathways by which climate can constrain the range of the generalist plant pathogen Phytophthora cinnamomi (Pc): through changing winter soil temperatures affecting pathogen survival; spring soil temperatures and thus pathogen metabolic rates; and changing spring soil moisture conditions and thus pathogen growth rates through host root systems. We apply this model to the southwestern USA for contemporary and plausible future climate scenarios and evaluate the changes in the potential range of Pc. The results indicate that the plausible range of this pathogen in the southwestern USA extends over approximately 200,000 km(2) under contemporary conditions. While warming temperatures as projected by the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios greatly expand the range over which the pathogen can survive winter, projected reductions in spring rainfall reduce its feasible habitat, leading to spatially complex patterns of changing risk. The study demonstrates that temperature and rainfall changes associated with possible climate futures in the southwestern USA have confounding impacts on the range of Pc, suggesting that projections of future pathogen dynamics and ranges should account for multiple pathways of climate-pathogen interaction. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evaluating the ecological sustainability of a pinyon-juniper grassland ecosystem in northern Arizona

Treesearch

Reuben Weisz; Jack Triepke; Don Vandendriesche; Mike Manthei; Jim Youtz; Jerry Simon; Wayne Robbie

2010-01-01

In order to develop strategic land management plans, managers must assess current and future ecological conditions. Climate change has expanded the need to assess the sustainability of ecosystems and predict their conditions under different climate change and management scenarios using landscape dynamics simulation models. We present a methodology for developing a...

Determining suitable locations for seed transfer under climate change: a global quantitative method

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove

2012-01-01

Changing climate conditions will complicate efforts to match seed sources with the environments to which they are best adapted. Tree species distributions may have to shift to match new environmental conditions, potentially requiring the establishment of some species entirely outside of their current distributions to thrive. Even within the portions of tree species...

Verification of GCM-generated regional seasonal precipitation for current climate and of statistical downscaling estimates under changing climate conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Busuioc, A.; Storch, H. von; Schnur, R.

Empirical downscaling procedures relate large-scale atmospheric features with local features such as station rainfall in order to facilitate local scenarios of climate change. The purpose of the present paper is twofold: first, a downscaling technique is used as a diagnostic tool to verify the performance of climate models on the regional scale; second, a technique is proposed for verifying the validity of empirical downscaling procedures in climate change applications. The case considered is regional seasonal precipitation in Romania. The downscaling model is a regression based on canonical correlation analysis between observed station precipitation and European-scale sea level pressure (SLP). Themore » climate models considered here are the T21 and T42 versions of the Hamburg ECHAM3 atmospheric GCM run in time-slice mode. The climate change scenario refers to the expected time of doubled carbon dioxide concentrations around the year 2050. Generally, applications of statistical downscaling to climate change scenarios have been based on the assumption that the empirical link between the large-scale and regional parameters remains valid under a changed climate. In this study, a rationale is proposed for this assumption by showing the consistency of the 2 x CO{sub 2} GCM scenarios in winter, derived directly from the gridpoint data, with the regional scenarios obtained through empirical downscaling. Since the skill of the GCMs in regional terms is already established, it is concluded that the downscaling technique is adequate for describing climatically changing regional and local conditions, at least for precipitation in Romania during winter.« less

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

Treesearch

L.G. Crozier; A.P. Hendry; P.W. Lawson; T.P. Quinn; N.J. Mantua; J. Battin; R.G. Shaw; R.B. Huey

2008-01-01

Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (...

Recent trends of groundwater temperatures in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benz, Susanne A.; Bayer, Peter; Winkler, Gerfried; Blum, Philipp

2018-06-01

Climate change is one of if not the most pressing challenge modern society faces. Increasing temperatures are observed all over the planet and the impact of climate change on the hydrogeological cycle has long been shown. However, so far we have insufficient knowledge on the influence of atmospheric warming on shallow groundwater temperatures. While some studies analyse the implication climate change has for selected wells, large-scale studies are so far lacking. Here we focus on the combined impact of climate change in the atmosphere and local hydrogeological conditions on groundwater temperatures in 227 wells in Austria, which have in part been observed since 1964. A linear analysis finds a temperature change of +0.7 ± 0.8 K in the years from 1994 to 2013. In the same timeframe surface air temperatures in Austria increased by 0.5 ± 0.3 K, displaying a much smaller variety. However, most of the extreme changes in groundwater temperatures can be linked to local hydrogeological conditions. Correlation between groundwater temperatures and nearby surface air temperatures was additionally analysed. They vary greatly, with correlation coefficients of -0.3 in central Linz to 0.8 outside of Graz. In contrast, the correlation of nationwide groundwater temperatures and surface air temperatures is high, with a correlation coefficient of 0.83. All of these findings indicate that while atmospheric climate change can be observed in nationwide groundwater temperatures, individual wells are often primarily dominated by local hydrogeological conditions. In addition to the linear temperature trend, a step-wise model was also applied that identifies climate regime shifts, which were observed globally in the late 70s, 80s, and 90s. Hinting again at the influence of local conditions, at most 22 % of all wells show these climate regime shifts. However, we were able to identify an additional shift in 2007, which was observed by 37 % of all wells. Overall, the step-wise representation provides a slightly more accurate picture of observed temperatures than the linear trend.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

EPA Science Inventory

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. We apply an ensemble of watershed models to simulate and assess the responses of hydrological and total Hg (HgT) fluxes and concentrations to two climate change projections in the US Co...

Branching out: Agroforestry as a climate change mitigation and adaptation tool for agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The United States and Canadian agricultural lands are being targeted to provide more environmental and economic services while at the same time their capacity to provide these services under potential climate change (CC) is being questioned. Predictions of future climate conditions include longer gr...

Tree height growth indicating drought and nitrogen deposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyás, Krisztina; Berki, Imre

2016-04-01

Several studies have been reported the increasing trends of forest growth in Europe in the last decades. Sites, where the water is not limiting factor, the increasing carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and high nitrogen deposition influenced accelerated tree height growth. However few researches show that the drying climate conditions and water deficit cause slow/not definite trend of tree height growth in forests. The aim of our study presents the effects of drying climate and surplus nitrogen on height growth of sessile oak (Quercus petraea). Almost 50 sessile oak stands (with zonal site condition) have been measured along a humid-arid climatic transect in Hungary. Top heights of the trees are the best dendrometric parameter for indicating the changing site conditions. Observed top heights dates were compared with 50-years climate condition along the humid-arid climatic transect. Tree height growth in the dry and mesic section of climatic gradient slowed at the last 4 decades, because of the increasing frequency of dry periods. Accelerated height growth were measured in the mesic and humid section of transect, where the nitrogen deposition due to local air pollution were higher than the background deposition. These results draw attention to the importance of the drying climate and surplus nitrogen in the global changes. Keywords: climate change impacts, drought periods, surplus deposition, tree height growth Acknowledgements: Research is supported by the "Agroclimate.2" (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034) EU-national joint funded research project.

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M.; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

2016-09-01

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

Farmers' Preferences for Future Agricultural Land Use Under the Consideration of Climate Change.

PubMed

Pröbstl-Haider, Ulrike; Mostegl, Nina M; Kelemen-Finan, Julia; Haider, Wolfgang; Formayer, Herbert; Kantelhardt, Jochen; Moser, Tobias; Kapfer, Martin; Trenholm, Ryan

2016-09-01

Cultural landscapes in Austria are multifunctional through their simultaneous support of productive, habitat, regulatory, social, and economic functions. This study investigates, if changing climatic conditions in Austria will lead to landscape change. Based on the assumption that farmers are the crucial decision makers when it comes to the implementation of agricultural climate change policies, this study analyzes farmers' decision-making under the consideration of potential future climate change scenarios and risk, varying economic conditions, and different policy regimes through a discrete choice experiment. Results show that if a warming climate will offer new opportunities to increase income, either through expansion of cash crop cultivation or new land use options such as short-term rotation forestry, these opportunities will almost always be seized. Even if high environmental premiums were offered to maintain current cultural landscapes, only 43 % of farmers would prefer the existing grassland cultivation. Therefore, the continuity of characteristic Austrian landscape patterns seems unlikely. In conclusion, despite governmental regulations of and incentives for agriculture, climate change will have significant effects on traditional landscapes. Any opportunities for crop intensification will be embraced, which will ultimately impact ecosystem services, tourism opportunities, and biodiversity.

Stochastic sensitivity analysis of nitrogen pollution to climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaoying; Tan, Lit; He, Ruimin; Fu, Guangtao; Ye, Jinyin; Liu, Qun; Wang, Guoqing

2017-12-01

It is increasingly recognized that climate change could impose both direct and indirect impacts on the quality of the water environment. Previous studies have mostly concentrated on evaluating the impacts of climate change on non-point source pollution in agricultural watersheds. Few studies have assessed the impacts of climate change on the water quality of river basins with complex point and non-point pollution sources. In view of the gap, this paper aims to establish a framework for stochastic assessment of the sensitivity of water quality to future climate change in a river basin with complex pollution sources. A sub-daily soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model was developed to simulate the discharge, transport, and transformation of nitrogen from multiple point and non-point pollution sources in the upper Huai River basin of China. A weather generator was used to produce 50 years of synthetic daily weather data series for all 25 combinations of precipitation (changes by - 10, 0, 10, 20, and 30%) and temperature change (increases by 0, 1, 2, 3, and 4 °C) scenarios. The generated daily rainfall series was disaggregated into the hourly scale and then used to drive the sub-daily SWAT model to simulate the nitrogen cycle under different climate change scenarios. Our results in the study region have indicated that (1) both total nitrogen (TN) loads and concentrations are insensitive to temperature change; (2) TN loads are highly sensitive to precipitation change, while TN concentrations are moderately sensitive; (3) the impacts of climate change on TN concentrations are more spatiotemporally variable than its impacts on TN loads; and (4) wide distributions of TN loads and TN concentrations under individual climate change scenario illustrate the important role of climatic variability in affecting water quality conditions. In summary, the large variability in SWAT simulation results within and between each climate change scenario highlights the uncertainty of the impacts of climate change and the need to incorporate extreme conditions in managing water environment and developing climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Facing climate change in forests and fields: U.S. Forest Service taps into science-management partnerships

Treesearch

Amy Daniels; Nancy Shaw; Dave Peterson; Keith Nislow; Monica Tomosy; Mary Rowland

2014-01-01

As a growing body of science shows, climate change impacts on wildlife are already profound—from shifting species’ ranges and altering the synchronicity of food sources to changing the availability of water. Such impacts are only expected to increase in the coming decades. As climate change shapes complex, interwoven ecological processes, novel conditions and...

Convergent ecosystem responses to 23-year ambient and manipulated warming link advancing snowmelt and shrub encroachment to transient and long-term climate-soil carbon feedback.

PubMed

Harte, John; Saleska, Scott R; Levy, Charlotte

2015-06-01

Ecosystem responses to climate change can exert positive or negative feedbacks on climate, mediated in part by slow-moving factors such as shifts in vegetation community composition. Long-term experimental manipulations can be used to examine such ecosystem responses, but they also present another opportunity: inferring the extent to which contemporary climate change is responsible for slow changes in ecosystems under ambient conditions. Here, using 23 years of data, we document a shift from nonwoody to woody vegetation and a loss of soil carbon in ambient plots and show that these changes track previously shown similar but faster changes under experimental warming. This allows us to infer that climate change is the cause of the observed shifts in ambient vegetation and soil carbon and that the vegetation responses mediate the observed changes in soil carbon. Our findings demonstrate the realism of an experimental manipulation, allow attribution of a climate cause to observed ambient ecosystem changes, and demonstrate how a combination of long-term study of ambient and experimental responses to warming can identify mechanistic drivers needed for realistic predictions of the conditions under which ecosystems are likely to become carbon sources or sinks over varying timescales. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Different ecophysiological responses of freshwater fish to warming and acidification.

PubMed

Jesus, Tiago F; Rosa, Inês C; Repolho, Tiago; Lopes, Ana R; Pimentel, Marta S; Almeida-Val, Vera M F; Coelho, Maria M; Rosa, Rui

2018-02-01

Future climate change scenarios predict threatening outcomes to biodiversity. Available empirical data concerning biological response of freshwater fish to climate change remains scarce. In this study, we investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of two Iberian freshwater fish species (Squalius carolitertii and the endangered S. torgalensis), inhabiting different climatic conditions, to projected future scenarios of warming (+3°C) and acidification (ΔpH=-0.4). Herein, metabolic enzyme activities of glycolytic (citrate synthase - CS, lactate dehydrogenase - LDH) and antioxidant (glutathione S-transferase, catalase and superoxide dismutase) pathways, as well as the heat shock response (HSR) and lipid peroxidation were determined. Our results show that, under current water pH, warming causes differential interspecific changes on LDH activity, increasing and decreasing its activity in S. carolitertii and in S. torgalensis, respectively. Furthermore, the synergistic effect of warming and acidification caused an increase in LDH activity of S. torgalensis, comparing with the warming condition. As for CS activity, acidification significantly decreased its activity in S. carolitertii whereas in S. torgalensis no significant effect was observed. These results suggest that S. carolitertii is more vulnerable to climate change, possibly as the result of its evolutionary acclimatization to milder climatic condition, while S. torgalensis evolved in the warmer Mediterranean climate. However, significant changes in HSR were observed under the combined warming and acidification (S. carolitertii) or under acidification (S. torgalensis). Our results underlie the importance of conducting experimental studies and address species endpoint responses under projected climate change scenarios to improve conservation strategies, and to safeguard endangered freshwater fish. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resilience landscapes for Congo basin rainforests vs. climate and management impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pietsch, Stephan Alexander; Gautam, Sishir; Elias Bednar, Johannes; Stanzl, Patrick; Mosnier, Aline; Obersteiner, Michael

2015-04-01

Past climate change caused severe disturbances of the Central African rainforest belt, with forest fragmentation and re-expansion due to drier and wetter climate conditions. Besides climate, human induced forest degradation affected biodiversity, structure and carbon storage of Congo basin rainforests. Information on climatically stable, mature rainforest, unaffected by human induced disturbances, provides means of assessing the impact of forest degradation and may serve as benchmarks of carbon carrying capacity over regions with similar site and climate conditions. BioGeoChemical (BGC) ecosystem models explicitly consider the impacts of site and climate conditions and may assess benchmark levels over regions devoid of undisturbed conditions. We will present a BGC-model validation for the Western Congolian Lowland Rainforest (WCLRF) using field data from a recently confirmed forest refuge, show model - data comparisons for disturbed und undisturbed forests under different site and climate conditions as well as for sites with repeated assessment of biodiversity and standing biomass during recovery from intensive exploitation. We will present climatic thresholds for WCLRF stability, and construct resilience landscapes for current day conditions vs. climate and management impacts.

Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Planning Using Robust Decisionmaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D. G.; Lempert, R.

2008-12-01

Addressing climate change in long-term natural resource planning is difficult because future management conditions are deeply uncertain and the range of possible adaptation options are so extensive. These conditions pose challenges to standard optimization decision-support techniques. This talk will describe a methodology called Robust Decisionmaking (RDM) that can complement more traditional analytic approaches by utilizing screening-level water management models to evaluate large numbers of strategies against a wide range of plausible future scenarios. The presentation will describe a recent application of the methodology to evaluate climate adaptation strategies for the Inland Empire Utilities Agency in Southern California. This project found that RDM can provide a useful way for addressing climate change uncertainty and identify robust adaptation strategies.

Using Probabilistic Methods in Water Scarcity Assessments: A First Step Towards a Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, Ted; Wada, Yoshihide; Aerts, Jeroen; Ward, Phillip

2016-01-01

Water scarcity -driven by climate change, climate variability, and socioeconomic developments- is recognized as one of the most important global risks, both in terms of likelihood and impact. Whilst a wide range of studies have assessed the role of long term climate change and socioeconomic trends on global water scarcity, the impact of variability is less well understood. Moreover, the interactions between different forcing mechanisms, and their combined effect on changes in water scarcity conditions, are often neglected. Therefore, we provide a first step towards a framework for global water scarcity risk assessments, applying probabilistic methods to estimate water scarcity risks for different return periods under current and future conditions while using multiple climate and socioeconomic scenarios.

The Future is Now: Reducing Psychological Distance to Increase Public Engagement with Climate Change.

PubMed

Jones, Charlotte; Hine, Donald W; Marks, Anthony D G

2017-02-01

Many people perceive climate change as psychologically distant-a set of uncertain events that might occur far in the future, impacting distant places and affecting people dissimilar to themselves. In this study, we employed construal level theory to investigate whether a climate change communication intervention could increase public engagement by reducing the psychological distance of climate change. Australian residents (N = 333) were randomly assigned to one of two treatment conditions: one framed to increase psychological distance to climate change (distal frame), and the other framed to reduce psychological distance (proximal frame). Participants then completed measures of psychological distance of climate change impacts, climate change concern, and intentions to engage in mitigation behavior. Principal components analysis indicated that psychological distance to climate change was best conceptualized as a multidimensional construct consisting of four components: geographic, temporal, social, and uncertainty. Path analysis revealed the effect of the treatment frame on climate change concern and intentions was fully mediated by psychological distance dimensions related to uncertainty and social distance. Our results suggest that climate communications framed to reduce psychological distance represent a promising strategy for increasing public engagement with climate change. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Coming Climate Crisis? Perhaps, but Beware the Solutions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

2010-01-01

Over the past several decades, there has been a growing awareness that climate changes in substantial ways, that human activities are having an impact on climate change, and that climate change can have major consequences for human societies. Unfortunately, along with this realization has come a strong polarization within the scientific community and outside of it regarding what if anything should be done to reduce negative human impacts and/or to attempt to control climate. This book places recent climate change in the context of the very long term history of change on planet Earth and warns that our understanding of climate change remains sufficiently incomplete that we should be extremely cautious about implementing proposed massive geoengineering schemes intended to alter future climate conditions. The book treats with respect the various viewpoints in the highly polarized discussions regarding climate change, following a basic assumption that the major scientists on each side of the issues have valuable points to bring to the table. The topic is too important to become endlessly mired in contentious polarization.

Species interactions reverse grassland responses to changing climate.

PubMed

Suttle, K B; Thomsen, Meredith A; Power, Mary E

2007-02-02

Predictions of ecological response to climate change are based largely on direct climatic effects on species. We show that, in a California grassland, species interactions strongly influence responses to changing climate, overturning direct climatic effects within 5 years. We manipulated the seasonality and intensity of rainfall over large, replicate plots in accordance with projections of leading climate models and examined responses across several trophic levels. Changes in seasonal water availability had pronounced effects on individual species, but as precipitation regimes were sustained across years, feedbacks and species interactions overrode autecological responses to water and reversed community trajectories. Conditions that sharply increased production and diversity through 2 years caused simplification of the food web and deep reductions in consumer abundance after 5 years. Changes in these natural grassland communities suggest a prominent role for species interactions in ecosystem response to climate change.

Guidelines for the adaptation to floods in changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata J.

2017-08-01

A decrease of flood damages in the future requires not only adaptation to flood caused by present day climate, but also climate change effects on floods should be taken into account. The paper illustrates the need to take into account changing climate conditions in flood adaptation strategies and to apply in practice the concept of integrated water resource management (IWRM). IWRM is based on a number of policy instruments, economic instruments, political signals, and also, on the effects of climate change on floods and collaboration across national, regional and local administrative units. The guidelines for a country adaptation to floods in a changing climate are outlined. A comparison of the adaptive capacities in Poland and Norway is used to illustrate the need for the implementation of proposed guidelines to assure flood risk management under climate change in a sustainable way.

Regional climate projection of the Maritime Continent using the MIT Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

IM, E. S.; Eltahir, E. A. B.

2014-12-01

Given that warming of the climate system is unequivocal (IPCC AR5), accurate assessment of future climate is essential to understand the impact of climate change due to global warming. Modelling the climate change of the Maritime Continent is particularly challenge, showing a high degree of uncertainty. Compared to other regions, model agreement of future projections in response to anthropogenic emission forcings is much less. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal behaviors of climate projections seem to vary significantly due to a complex geographical condition and a wide range of scale interactions. For the fine-scale climate information (27 km) suitable for representing the complexity of climate change over the Maritime Continent, dynamical downscaling is performed using the MIT regional climate model (MRCM) during two thirty-year period for reference (1970-1999) and future (2070-2099) climate. Initial and boundary conditions are provided by Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulations under the emission scenarios projected by MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). Changes in mean climate as well as the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events are investigated at various temporal and spatial scales. Our analysis is primarily centered on the different behavior of changes in convective and large-scale precipitation over land vs. ocean during dry vs. wet season. In addition, we attempt to find the added value to downscaled results over the Maritime Continent through the comparison between MRCM and CESM projection. Acknowledgements.This research was supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore through the Singapore MIT Alliance for Research and Technology's Center for Environmental Sensing and Modeling interdisciplinary research program.

Regeneration potential of Taxodium distichum swamps and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Middleton, B.A.

2009-01-01

Seed bank densities respond to factors across local to landscape scales, and therefore, knowledge of these responses may be necessary in forecasting the effects of climate change on the regeneration of species. This study relates the seed bank densities of species of Taxodium distichum swamps to local water regime and regional climate factors at five latitudes across the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley from southern Illinois to Louisiana. In an outdoor nursery setting, the seed banks of twenty-five swamps were exposed to non-flooded (freely drained) or flooded treatments, and the number and species of seeds germinating were recorded from each swamp during one growing season. Based on ANOVA analysis, the majority of dominant species had a higher rate of germination in non-flooded versus flooded treatments. Similarly, an NMS comparison, which considered the local water regime and regional climate of the swamps, found that the species of seeds germinating, almost completely shifted under non-flooded versus flooded treatments. For example, in wetter northern swamps, seeds of Taxodium distichum germinated in non-flooded conditions, but did not germinate from the same seed banks in flooded conditions. In wetter southern swamps, seeds of Eleocharis cellulosa germinated in flooded conditions, but did not germinate in non-flooded conditions. The strong relationship of seed germination and density relationships with local water regime and regional climate variables suggests that the forecasting of climate change effects on swamps and other wetlands needs to consider a variety of interrelated variables to make adequate projections of the regeneration responses of species to climate change. Because regeneration is an important aspect of species maintenance and restoration, climate drying could influence the species distribution of these swamps in the future. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Assessment of a stochastic downscaling methodology in generating an ensemble of hourly future climate time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fatichi, S.; Ivanov, V. Y.; Caporali, E.

2013-04-01

This study extends a stochastic downscaling methodology to generation of an ensemble of hourly time series of meteorological variables that express possible future climate conditions at a point-scale. The stochastic downscaling uses general circulation model (GCM) realizations and an hourly weather generator, the Advanced WEather GENerator (AWE-GEN). Marginal distributions of factors of change are computed for several climate statistics using a Bayesian methodology that can weight GCM realizations based on the model relative performance with respect to a historical climate and a degree of disagreement in projecting future conditions. A Monte Carlo technique is used to sample the factors of change from their respective marginal distributions. As a comparison with traditional approaches, factors of change are also estimated by averaging GCM realizations. With either approach, the derived factors of change are applied to the climate statistics inferred from historical observations to re-evaluate parameters of the weather generator. The re-parameterized generator yields hourly time series of meteorological variables that can be considered to be representative of future climate conditions. In this study, the time series are generated in an ensemble mode to fully reflect the uncertainty of GCM projections, climate stochasticity, as well as uncertainties of the downscaling procedure. Applications of the methodology in reproducing future climate conditions for the periods of 2000-2009, 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, using the period of 1962-1992 as the historical baseline are discussed for the location of Firenze (Italy). The inferences of the methodology for the period of 2000-2009 are tested against observations to assess reliability of the stochastic downscaling procedure in reproducing statistics of meteorological variables at different time scales.

Effects of climatic conditions and management practices on agricultural carbon and water budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long-term...

Hydrofutures and Hydromorphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lall, U.

2006-12-01

Hydromorphology refers to the science of hydrologic evolution. It represents a synthesis of planetary and social sciences that collectively determine the spatial and temporal evolution of planetary water. At present human actions directly or indirectly play a major role in determining hydrofutures. Man's role in changing water trajectories is now clear at both local and planetary scales. Changing climate leads to changing ecology and changing water patterns. Changing water conditions may in turn regulate (limit anthropogenic climate change) or adversely impact (e.g., runaway greenhouse) climate, as well as human habitation and water use patterns. This talk will address the problem of the prediction of future hydrologic conditions in the different media and reservoirs of the planet, from the integrated perspective indicated above. Key examples of the mechanisms of hydrologic change, that relate to climate and ecological dyanmics, and to human activity are identified as well. A theoretical framework for researching this multi-attribute dynamical system from a water centric perspective is advocated as a critical need for planetary science and human welfare.

Future Climate Change Impact Assessment of River Flows at Two Watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, A.; Ishida, K.; Kavvas, M. L.; Chen, Z. R.; Jang, S.; Amin, M. Z. M.; Shaaban, A. J.

2016-12-01

Impacts of climate change on the river flows under future climate change conditions were assessed over Muda and Dungun watersheds of Peninsular Malaysia by means of a coupled regional climate model and a physically-based hydrology model utilizing an ensemble of 15 different future climate realizations. Coarse resolution GCMs' future projections covering a wide range of emission scenarios were dynamically downscaled to 6 km resolution over the study area. Hydrologic simulations of the two selected watersheds were carried out at hillslope-scale and at hourly increments.

Data-Conditioned Distributions of Groundwater Recharge Under Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLaughlin, D.; Ng, G. C.; Entekhabi, D.; Scanlon, B.

2008-12-01

Groundwater recharge is likely to be impacted by climate change, with changes in precipitation amounts altering moisture availability and changes in temperature affecting evaporative demand. This could have major implications for sustainable aquifer pumping rates and contaminant transport into groundwater reservoirs in the future, thus making predictions of recharge under climate change very important. Unfortunately, in dry environments where groundwater resources are often most critical, low recharge rates are difficult to resolve due to high sensitivity to modeling and input errors. Some recent studies on climate change and groundwater have considered recharge using a suite of general circulation model (GCM) weather predictions, an obvious and key source of uncertainty. This work extends beyond those efforts by also accounting for uncertainty in other land-surface model inputs in a probabilistic manner. Recharge predictions are made using a range of GCM projections for a rain-fed cotton site in the semi-arid Southern High Plains region of Texas. Results showed that model simulations using a range of unconstrained literature-based parameter values produce highly uncertain and often misleading recharge rates. Thus, distributional recharge predictions are found using soil and vegetation parameters conditioned on current unsaturated zone soil moisture and chloride concentration observations; assimilation of observations is carried out with an ensemble importance sampling method. Our findings show that the predicted distribution shapes can differ for the various GCM conditions considered, underscoring the importance of probabilistic analysis over deterministic simulations. The recharge predictions indicate that the temporal distribution (over seasons and rain events) of climate change will be particularly critical for groundwater impacts. Overall, changes in recharge amounts and intensity were often more pronounced than changes in annual precipitation and temperature, thus suggesting high susceptibility of groundwater systems to future climate change. Our approach provides a probabilistic sensitivity analysis of recharge under potential climate changes, which will be critical for future management of water resources.

Climate Change Decouples Drought from Early Wine Grape Harvests in France

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cook, Benjamin I.; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.

2016-01-01

Across the world, wine grape phenology has advanced in recent decades, in step with climate-change-induced trends in temperature - the main driver of fruit maturation - and drought. Fully understanding how climate change contributes to changes in harvest dates, however, requires analysing wine grape phenology and its relationship to climate over a longer-term context, including data predating anthropogenic interference in the climate system. Here, we investigate the climatic controls of wine grape harvest dates from 1600-2007 in France and Switzerland using historical harvest and climate data. Early harvests occur with warmer temperatures (minus 6 days per degree Centigrade) and are delayed by wet conditions (plus 0.07 days per millimeter; plus 1.68 days per PDSI (Palmer drought severity index)) during spring and summer. In recent decades (1981-2007), however, the relationship between harvest timing and drought has broken down. Historically, high summer temperatures in Western Europe, which would hasten fruit maturation, required drought conditions to generate extreme heat. The relationship between drought and temperature in this region, however, has weakened in recent decades and enhanced warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gases can generate the high temperatures needed for early harvests without drought. Our results suggest that climate change has fundamentally altered the climatic drivers of early wine grape harvests in France, with possible ramifications for viticulture management and wine quality.

Worker health and safety and climate change in the Americas: issues and research needs.

PubMed

Kiefer, Max; Rodríguez-Guzmán, Julietta; Watson, Joanna; van Wendel de Joode, Berna; Mergler, Donna; da Silva, Agnes Soares

2016-09-01

SYNOPSIS This report summarizes and discusses current knowledge on the impact that climate change can have on occupational safety and health (OSH), with a particular focus on the Americas. Worker safety and health issues are presented on topics related to specific stressors (e.g., temperature extremes), climate associated impacts (e.g., ice melt in the Arctic), and a health condition associated with climate change (chronic kidney disease of non-traditional etiology). The article discusses research needs, including hazards, surveillance, and risk assessment activities to better characterize and understand how OSH may be associated with climate change events. Also discussed are the actions that OSH professionals can take to ensure worker health and safety in the face of climate change.

Worker health and safety and climate change in the Americas: issues and research needs

PubMed Central

Kiefer, Max; Rodríguez-Guzmán, Julietta; Watson, Joanna; van Wendel de Joode, Berna; Mergler, Donna; da Silva, Agnes Soares

2016-01-01

SYNOPSIS This report summarizes and discusses current knowledge on the impact that climate change can have on occupational safety and health (OSH), with a particular focus on the Americas. Worker safety and health issues are presented on topics related to specific stressors (e.g., temperature extremes), climate associated impacts (e.g., ice melt in the Arctic), and a health condition associated with climate change (chronic kidney disease of non-traditional etiology). The article discusses research needs, including hazards, surveillance, and risk assessment activities to better characterize and understand how OSH may be associated with climate change events. Also discussed are the actions that OSH professionals can take to ensure worker health and safety in the face of climate change. PMID:27991978

Testing Projected Climate Change Conditions on the Endoconidiophora polonica / Norway spruce Pathosystem Shows Fungal Strain Specific Effects.

PubMed

Linnakoski, Riikka; Forbes, Kristian M; Wingfield, Michael J; Pulkkinen, Pertti; Asiegbu, Fred O

2017-01-01

Climate changes, exemplified by increased temperatures and CO 2 concentration, pose a global threat to forest health. Of particular concern are pests and pathogens, with a warming climate altering their distributions and evolutionary capacity, while impairing the ability of some plants to respond to infections. Progress in understanding and mitigating such effects is currently hindered by a lack of empirical research. Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) is one of the most economically important tree species in northern Europe, and is considered highly vulnerable to changes in climate. It is commonly infected by the fungus Endoconidiophora polonica , and we hypothesized that damage caused to trees will increase under future climate change predictions. To test this hypothesis an in vivo greenhouse experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of a changed growing environment on E. polonica infected Norway spruce seedlings, comparing ambient conditions to predicted temperatures and CO 2 levels in Finland for the years 2030 and 2100. In total, 450 seedlings were randomized amongst the three treatments, with 25 seedlings from each allocated to inoculation with one of five different fungal strains or mock-inoculation. Seedlings were monitored throughout the thermal growing season for mortality, and lesion length and depth indices were measured at the experiment conclusion. Disease severity (mortality and lesions) was consistently greater in fungal-inoculated than mock-inoculated seedlings. However, substantial differences were observed among fungal strains in response to climate scenarios. For example, although overall seedling mortality was highest under the most distant (and severe) climate change expectations, of the two fungal strains with the highest mortality counts (referred to as F4 and F5), one produced greater mortality under the 2030 and 2100 scenarios than ambient conditions, whereas climate scenario had no effect on the other. This study contributes to a limited body of empirical research on the effects of projected climate changes on forestry pathosystems, and is the first to investigate interactions between Norway spruce and E. polonica . The results indicate the potential for future climate changes to alter the impact of forest pathogens with implications for productivity, while highlighting the need for a strain-specific level of understanding of the disease agents.

Warmer and drier conditions and nitrogen fertilizer application altered methanotroph abundance and methane emissions in a vegetable soil.

PubMed

Ran, Yu; Xie, Jianli; Xu, Xiaoya; Li, Yong; Liu, Yapeng; Zhang, Qichun; Li, Zheng; Xu, Jianming; Di, Hongjie

2017-01-01

Methane (CH 4 ) is a potent greenhouse gas, and soil can both be a source and sink for atmospheric CH 4 . It is not clear how future climate change may affect soil CH 4 emissions and related microbial communities. The aim of this study was to determine the interactive effects of a simulated warmer and drier climate scenarios and the application of different nitrogen (N) sources (urea and manure) on CH 4 emissions and related microbial community abundance in a vegetable soil. Greenhouses were used to control simulated climate conditions which gave 2.99 °C warmer and 6.2% lower water content conditions. The field experiment was divided into two phases. At the beginning of phase II, half of the greenhouses were removed to study possible legacy effects of the simulated warmer and drier conditions. The responses in methanogen and methanotroph abundance to a simulated climate change scenario were determined using real-time PCR. The results showed that the simulated warmer and drier conditions in the greenhouses significantly decreased CH 4 emissions largely due to the lower soil moisture content. For the same reason, CH 4 emissions of treatments in phase I were much lower than the same treatments in phase II. The abundance of methanotrophs showed a more significant response than methanogens to the simulated climate change scenario, increasing under simulated drier conditions. Methanogenic community abundance remained low, except where manure was applied which provided a source of organic C that stimulated methanogen growth. Soil moisture content was a major driver for methanotroph abundance and strongly affected CH 4 emissions. The application of N source decreased CH 4 emissions probably because of increased methanotrophic activity. CH 4 emissions were positively correlated to methanogenic abundance and negatively correlated to methanotrophic abundance. These results demonstrate that projected future climate change conditions can have a feedback impact on CH 4 emissions from the soil by altering soil conditions (particularly soil moisture) and related microbial communities.

Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

2013-01-01

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

Malaria ecology and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCord, G. C.

2016-05-01

Understanding the costs that climate change will exact on society is crucial to devising an appropriate policy response. One of the channels through while climate change will affect human society is through vector-borne diseases whose epidemiology is conditioned by ambient ecology. This paper introduces the literature on malaria, its cost on society, and the consequences of climate change to the physics community in hopes of inspiring synergistic research in the area of climate change and health. It then demonstrates the use of one ecological indicator of malaria suitability to provide an order-of-magnitude assessment of how climate change might affect the malaria burden. The average of Global Circulation Model end-of-century predictions implies a 47% average increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease in today's malarious areas, significantly complicating malaria elimination efforts.

Beyond just sea-level rise: considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change.

PubMed

Osland, Michael J; Enwright, Nicholas M; Day, Richard H; Gabler, Christopher A; Stagg, Camille L; Grace, James B

2016-01-01

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate change-related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

PubMed Central

Olson, Deanna H.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats. PMID:27513565

Interannual and spatial variability of maple syrup yield as related to climatic factors

PubMed Central

Houle, Daniel

2014-01-01

Sugar maple syrup production is an important economic activity for eastern Canada and the northeastern United States. Since annual variations in syrup yield have been related to climate, there are concerns about the impacts of climatic change on the industry in the upcoming decades. Although the temporal variability of syrup yield has been studied for specific sites on different time scales or for large regions, a model capable of accounting for both temporal and regional differences in yield is still lacking. In the present study, we studied the factors responsible for interregional and interannual variability in maple syrup yield over the 2001–2012 period, by combining the data from 8 Quebec regions (Canada) and 10 U.S. states. The resulting model explained 44.5% of the variability in yield. It includes the effect of climatic conditions that precede the sapflow season (variables from the previous growing season and winter), the effect of climatic conditions during the current sapflow season, and terms accounting for intercountry and temporal variability. Optimal conditions for maple syrup production appear to be spatially restricted by less favourable climate conditions occurring during the growing season in the north, and in the south, by the warmer winter and earlier spring conditions. This suggests that climate change may favor maple syrup production northwards, while southern regions are more likely to be negatively affected by adverse spring conditions. PMID:24949244

Definitions of climate and climate change under varying external conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werndl, C.

2014-06-01

Commonly, definitions of climate are endorsed where the external conditions are held constant. This paper argues that these definitions risk being empirically void because in reality the external conditions vary. As a consequence, analogous definitions for varying external conditions are explored with help of the recently developed theory of non-autonomous dynamical systems, and the similarities and differences between the cases of constant and varying external conditions are discussed. It is argued that there are analogous definitions for varying external conditions which are preferable to the definitions where the external conditions are held constant. In this context, a novel definition is proposed (namely, climate as the distribution over time under a regime of varying external conditions), which is argued to be promising.

Identification of Extreme Events Under Climate Change Conditions Over Europe and The Northwest-atlantic Region: Spatial Patterns and Time Series Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G.; Ulbrich, U.; Speth, P.

In the context of climate change and the resulting possible impacts on socio-economic conditions for human activities it seems that due to a changed occurrence of extreme events more severe consequences have to be expected than from changes in the mean climate. These extreme events like floods, excessive heats and droughts or windstorms possess impacts on human social and economic life in different categories such as forestry, agriculture, energy use, tourism and the reinsurance business. Reinsurances are affected by nearly 70% of all insured damages over Europe in the case of wind- storms. Especially the December 1999 French windstorms caused damages about 10 billion. A new EU-founded project (MICE = Modelling the Impact of Climate Ex- tremes) will focus on these impacts caused by changed occurrences of extreme events over Europe. Based upon the output of general circulation models as well as regional climate models, investigations are carried out with regard to time series characteristics as well as the spatial patterns of extremes under climate changed conditions. After the definition of specific thresholds for climate extremes, in this talk we will focus on the results of the analysis for the different data sets (HadCM3 and CGCMII GCM's and RCM's, re-analyses, observations) with regard to windstorm events. At first the results of model outputs are validated against re-analyses and observations. Especially a comparison of the stormtrack (2.5 to 8 day bandpass filtered 500 hPa geopotential height), cyclone track, cyclone frequency and intensity is presented. Highly relevant to damages is the extreme wind near the ground level, so the 10 m wind speed will be investigated additionally. of special interest to possible impacts is the changed spatial occurrence of windspeed maxima under 2xCO2-induced climate change.

Past climates primary productivity changes in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mézo, P. K.; Kageyama, M.; Bopp, L.; Beaufort, L.; Braconnot, P.; Bassinot, F. C.

2016-02-01

Organic climate recorders, e.g., coccolithophorids and foraminifera, are widely used to reconstruct past climate conditions, such as the Indian monsoon intensity and variability, since they are sensitive to climate-induced fluctuations of their environment. In the Indian Ocean, it is commonly accepted that a stronger summer monsoon will enhance productivity in the Arabian Sea and therefore the amount of organisms in a sediment core should reflect monsoon intensity. In this study, we use the coupled Earth System Model IPSLCM5A, which has a biogeochemical component PISCES that simulates primary production. We use 8 climate simulations of the IPSL-CM5A model, from -72kyr BP climate conditions to a preindustrial state. Our simulations have different orbital forcing (precession, obliquity and eccentricity), greenhouse gas concentrations as well as different ice sheet covers. The objective of this work is to characterize the mechanisms behind the changes in primary productivity between the different time periods. Our model shows that in climates where monsoon is enhanced (due to changes in precession) we do not necessarily see an increase in summer productivity in the Arabian Sea, and inversely. It seems that the glacial-interglacial state of the simulation is important in driving productivity changes in this region of the world. We try to explain the changes in productivity in the Arabian Sea with the local climate and then to link the changes in local climate to large scale atmospheric forcing and commonly used Indian monsoon definitions.

Editorial for Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Willems, Patrick; Batelaan, Okke; Hughes, Denis A.; Swarzenski, Peter W.

2014-01-01

Hydrological regimes and processes show strong regional differences. While some regions are affected by extreme drought and desertification, others are under threat of increased fluvial and/or pluvial floods. Changes to hydrological systems as a consequence of natural variations and human activities are region-specific. Many of these changes have significant interactions with and implications for human life and ecosystems. Amongst others, population growth, improvements in living standards and other demographic and socio-economic trends, related changes in water and energy demands, change in land use, water abstractions and returns to the hydrological system (UNEP, 2008), introduce temporal and spatial changes to the system and cause contamination of surface and ground waters. Hydro-meteorological boundary conditions are also undergoing spatial and temporal changes. Climate change has been shown to increase temporal and spatial variations of rainfall, increase temperature and cause changes to evapotranspiration and other hydro-meteorological variables (IPCC, 2013). However, these changes are also region specific. In addition to these climate trends, (multi)-decadal oscillatory changes in climatic conditions and large variations in meteorological conditions will continue to occur.

Climate change impacts on West Nile virus transmission in a global context

PubMed Central

Paz, Shlomit

2015-01-01

West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed virus of the encephalitic flaviviruses, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The transmission cycle exists in rural and urban areas where the virus infects birds, humans, horses and other mammals. Multiple factors impact the transmission and distribution of WNV, related to the dynamics and interactions between pathogen, vector, vertebrate hosts and environment. Hence, among other drivers, weather conditions have direct and indirect influences on vector competence (the ability to acquire, maintain and transmit the virus), on the vector population dynamic and on the virus replication rate within the mosquito, which are mostly weather dependent. The importance of climatic factors (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity and winds) as drivers in WNV epidemiology is increasing under conditions of climate change. Indeed, recent changes in climatic conditions, particularly increased ambient temperature and fluctuations in rainfall amounts, contributed to the maintenance (endemization process) of WNV in various locations in southern Europe, western Asia, the eastern Mediterranean, the Canadian Prairies, parts of the USA and Australia. As predictions show that the current trends are expected to continue, for better preparedness, any assessment of future transmission of WNV should take into consideration the impacts of climate change. PMID:25688020

Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina-Perez, Edmundo

It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty: climate change, elasticity of substitution between renewable and fossil energy and three different sources of technological uncertainty (i.e. R&D returns, innovation propensity and technological transferability). The performance of eight different GCF and non-GCF based policy regimes is evaluated in light of various end-of-century climate policy targets. Then I combine traditional scenario discovery data mining methods (Bryant and Lempert, 2010) with high dimensional stacking methods (Suzuki, Stem and Manzocchi, 2015; Taylor et al., 2006; LeBlanc, Ward and Wittels, 1990) to quantitatively characterize the conditions under which it is possible to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions and keep temperature rise below 2°C before the end of the century. Finally, I describe a method by which it is possible to combine the results of scenario discovery with high-dimensional stacking to construct a dynamic architecture of low cost technological cooperation. This dynamic architecture consists of adaptive pathways (Kwakkel, Haasnoot and Walker, 2014; Haasnoot et al., 2013) which begin with carbon taxation across both regions as a critical near term action. Then in subsequent phases different forms of cooperation are triggered depending on the unfolding climate and technological conditions. I show that there is no single policy regime that dominates over the entire uncertainty space. Instead I find that it is possible to combine these different architectures into a dynamic framework for technological cooperation across regions that can be adapted to unfolding climate and technological conditions which can lead to a greater rate of success and to lower costs in meeting the end-of-century climate change objectives agreed at the 2015 Paris Conference of the Parties. Keywords: international technological change, emerging nations, climate change, technological uncertainties, Green Climate Fund.

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species.

PubMed

Stenseth, Nils Chr; Durant, Joël M; Fowler, Mike S; Matthysen, Erik; Adriaensen, Frank; Jonzén, Niclas; Chan, Kung-Sik; Liu, Hai; De Laet, Jenny; Sheldon, Ben C; Visser, Marcel E; Dhondt, André A

2015-05-22

Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting long-term coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basheer, A. K.; Lu, H.; Omer, A.; Ali, A. B.; Abdelgader, A. M. S.

2015-10-01

The fate of seasonal rivers ecosystem habitats under climate change essentially depends on the changes in annual recharge, which related to alterations in precipitation and evaporation over the river basin. Therefore the change in climate conditions is expected to significantly affect hydrological and ecological components, particularly in fragmented ecosystems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow in Dinder River Basin (DRB), and infer its relative possible effects on the Dinder National Park (DNP) ecosystem habitats in the Sudan. Two global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two statistical downscaling approaches combined with hydrological model (SWAT) were used to project the climate change conditions over the study periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The results indicated that the climate over the DRB will become warmer and wetter under the most scenarios. The projected precipitation variability mainly depends on the selected GCM and downscaling approach. Moreover, the projected streamflow was more sensitive to rainfall and temperature variation, and will likely increase in this century. In contrast to drought periods during (1960s, 1970s and 1980s), the predicted climate change is likely to affect ecosystems in DNP positively and promote the ecological restoration of the flora and fauna habitats'.

Climate change health assessment: a novel approach for Alaska Native communities.

PubMed

Brubaker, Michael Y; Bell, Jacob N; Berner, James E; Warren, John A

2011-06-01

Develop a process for assessing climate change impacts on public health that identifies climate-health vulnerabilities and mechanisms and encourages adaptation. Multi-stakeholder, participatory, qualitative research. A Climate Change Health Assessment (CCHA) was developed that involved 4 steps: (1) scoping to describe local conditions and engage stakeholders; (2) surveying to collect descriptive and quantitative data; (3) analysis to evaluate the data; and (4) planning to communicate findings and explore appropriate actions with community members. The health effects related to extreme weather, thinning ice, erosion, flooding, thawing permafrost and changing conditions of water and food resources were considered. The CCHA process was developed and performed in north-west Arctic villages. Refinement of the process took place in Point Hope, a coastal Inupiat village that practices whaling and a variety of other traditional subsistence harvest practices. Local observers identified climate change impacts that resulted in damaged health infrastructure, compromised food and water security and increased risk of injury. Priority health issues included thawing traditional ice cellars, diminished quality of the community water source and increased safety issues related to sea ice change. The CCHA increased awareness about health vulnerability and encouraged informed planning and decision-making. A community-scale assessment process guided by observation-based data can identify climate health impacts, raise awareness and encourage adaptive actions, thereby improving the response capacity of communities vulnerable to climate change.

Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China

PubMed Central

Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Hiscock, Rosemary; Li, Qin; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L.; Sabel, Clive E.

2016-01-01

As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn’t been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i) Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health), psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience) and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen) were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii) None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high–tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use) and one adaption policy (increasing resilience) brought positive co–benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered. PMID:27007389

Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China.

PubMed

Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Hiscock, Rosemary; Li, Qin; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L; Sabel, Clive E

2016-03-21

As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn't been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i) Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health), psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience) and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen) were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii) None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high-tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use) and one adaption policy (increasing resilience) brought positive co-benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Sokolov, A. P.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Gao, X.

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an earth system model of intermediate complexity, with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere, to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three dimensional atmospheric model; and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate-change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for key sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections; climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate); natural variability; and structural uncertainty. Results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also nd that dierent initial conditions lead to dierences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider all sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, Erwan; Sokolov, Andrei; Schlosser, Adam; Scott, Jeffery; Gao, Xiang

2013-12-01

We present probabilistic projections of 21st century climate change over Northern Eurasia using the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model that couples an Earth system model of intermediate complexity with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere to a human activity model. Regional climate change is obtained by two downscaling methods: a dynamical downscaling, where the IGSM is linked to a three-dimensional atmospheric model, and a statistical downscaling, where a pattern scaling algorithm uses climate change patterns from 17 climate models. This framework allows for four major sources of uncertainty in future projections of regional climate change to be accounted for: emissions projections, climate system parameters (climate sensitivity, strength of aerosol forcing and ocean heat uptake rate), natural variability, and structural uncertainty. The results show that the choice of climate policy and the climate parameters are the largest drivers of uncertainty. We also find that different initial conditions lead to differences in patterns of change as large as when using different climate models. Finally, this analysis reveals the wide range of possible climate change over Northern Eurasia, emphasizing the need to consider these sources of uncertainty when modeling climate impacts over Northern Eurasia.

Central Hardwoods ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis: a report from the Central Hardwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Leslie Brandt; Hong He; Louis Iverson; Frank R. Thompson; Patricia Butler; Stephen Handler; Maria Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Matthew Albrecht; Richard Blume-Weaver; Paul Deizman; John DePuy; William D. Dijak; Gary Dinkel; Songlin Fei; D. Todd Jones-Farrand; Michael Leahy; Stephen Matthews; Paul Nelson; Brad Oberle; Judi Perez; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Jeffrey E. Schneiderman; John Shuey; Adam B. Smith; Charles Studyvin; John M. Tirpak; Jeffery W. Walk; Wen J. Wang; Laura Watts; Dale Weigel; Steve Westin

2014-01-01

The forests in the Central Hardwoods Region will be affected directly and indirectly by a changing climate over the next 100 years. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems in the Central Hardwoods Region of Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri to a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate trends,...

Patterns and Drivers of Tree Mortality in Iberian Forests: Climatic Effects Are Modified by Competition

PubMed Central

Ruiz-Benito, Paloma; Lines, Emily R.; Gómez-Aparicio, Lorena; Zavala, Miguel A.; Coomes, David A.

2013-01-01

Tree mortality is a key process underlying forest dynamics and community assembly. Understanding how tree mortality is driven by simultaneous drivers is needed to evaluate potential effects of climate change on forest composition. Using repeat-measure information from c. 400,000 trees from the Spanish Forest Inventory, we quantified the relative importance of tree size, competition, climate and edaphic conditions on tree mortality of 11 species, and explored the combined effect of climate and competition. Tree mortality was affected by all of these multiple drivers, especially tree size and asymmetric competition, and strong interactions between climate and competition were found. All species showed L-shaped mortality patterns (i.e. showed decreasing mortality with tree size), but pines were more sensitive to asymmetric competition than broadleaved species. Among climatic variables, the negative effect of temperature on tree mortality was much larger than the effect of precipitation. Moreover, the effect of climate (mean annual temperature and annual precipitation) on tree mortality was aggravated at high competition levels for all species, but especially for broadleaved species. The significant interaction between climate and competition on tree mortality indicated that global change in Mediterranean regions, causing hotter and drier conditions and denser stands, could lead to profound effects on forest structure and composition. Therefore, to evaluate the potential effects of climatic change on tree mortality, forest structure must be considered, since two systems of similar composition but different structure could radically differ in their response to climatic conditions. PMID:23451096

Evaluating Carbon and Climate Sensitivities of the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model ESM2Mb to Forcing Perturbations during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tandy, H.; Shevliakova, E.; Keller, G.

2017-12-01

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, 55.5 Myr) was a period of rapid warming resulting from major changes in the carbon cycle and has been cited as the closest historical analogue to anthropogenic carbon release. Up to now, modeling studies of the PETM used either a low-resolution coupled model of the ocean and atmosphere with prescribed CO2 or CH4, or coupled climate-carbon models of intermediate complexity (i.e. simplified ocean or atmosphere). In this study we carried a suit of numerical experiments with the NOAA/GFDL comprehensive atmosphere-ocean coupled model with integrated terrestrial and marine carbon cycle components, known as an Earth System Model (ESM2Mb). We analyzed the output from millennia-scale ESM2Mb simulations with different combinations of forcings from the pre-PETM and PETM, including greenhouse gas concentrations and solar intensity. In addition we explore sensitivities of climate and carbon cycling to changes in geology such as topography, continental positions, and the presence and absence of large land glaciers. Furthermore, we examine ESM2Mb climate and carbon sensitivities to PETM conditions with a focus on how alternate conditions and forcings relate to the uncertainty in the climate and carbon cycling estimates from paleo observations. We explore changes in atmosphere, land, and ocean temperatures and circulation patterns as well as vegetation distribution, permafrost, and carbon storage in terrestrial and marine ecosystems from pre-PETM to PETM conditions. We found that with the present day land/sea mask and land glaciers in ESM2Mb, changes in only greenhouse gas concentrations (CO2 and CH4) from pre-PETM to PETM conditions induce global warming of 3-5 °C, consistent with the lower range of estimates from paleo proxies. Changes in the carbon permafrost storage from warming cannot explain the rapid increase in the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Changes in the ocean circulation and carbon storage critically depend on geological conditions such as continental positions. The study illustrates how models designed for studying future climate change can capture past paleo events, such as the PETM, and how modern day geological conditions may affect climate and carbon cycle sensitivities.

Ceramic production during changing environmental/climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oestreich, Daniela B.; Glasmacher, Ulrich A.

2015-04-01

Ceramics, with regard to their status as largely everlasting everyday object as well as on the basis of their chronological sensitivity, reflect despite their simplicity the technological level of a culture and therefore also, directly or indirectly, the adaptability of a culture with respect to environmental and/or climatic changes. For that reason the question arises, if it is possible to identify changes in production techniques and raw material sources for ceramic production, as a response to environmental change, e.g. climate change. This paper will present results of a research about Paracas Culture (800 - 200 BC), southern Peru. Through several investigations (e.g. Schittek et al., 2014; Eitel and Mächtle, 2009) it is well known that during Paracas period changes in climate and environmental conditions take place. As a consequence, settlement patterns shifted several times through the various stages of Paracas time. Ceramics from three different sites (Jauranga, Cutamalla, Collanco) and temporal phases of the Paracas period are detailed archaeometric, geochemical and mineralogical characterized, e.g. Raman spectroscopy, XRD, and ICP-MS analyses. The aim of this research is to resolve potential differences in the chemical composition of the Paracas ceramics in space and time and to compare the data with the data sets of pre-Columbian environmental conditions. Thus influences of changing environmental conditions on human societies and their cultural conditions will be discussed. References Eitel, B. and Mächtle, B. 2009. Man and Environment in the eastern Atacama Desert (Southern Peru): Holocene climate changes and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures. In: Reindel, M. & Wagner, G. A. (eds.) New Technologies for Archaeology. Berlin Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. Schittek, K., Mächtle, B., Schäbitz, F., Forbriger, M., Wennrich, V., Reindel, M., and Eitel, B.. Holocene environmental changes in the highlands of the southern Peruvian Andes (14° S) and their impact on pre-Columbian cultures, Clim. Past Discuss., 10, 1707-1746.

Projecting climate change in the United States: A technical document supporting the Forest Service RPA 2010 Assessment

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; David T. Price; David P. Coulson; Daniel W. McKenney; R. Martin Siltanen; Pia Papadopol; Kevin Lawrence

2014-01-01

A set of climate change projections for the United States was developed for use in the 2010 USDA Forest Service RPA Assessment. These climate projections, along with projections for population dynamics, economic growth, and land use change in the United States, comprise the RPA scenarios and are used in the RPA Assessment to project future renewable resource conditions...

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Role of Perturbing Ocean Initial Condition in Simulated Regional Sea Level Change

DOE PAGES

Hu, Aixue; Meehl, Gerald; Stammer, Detlef; ...

2017-06-05

Multiple lines of observational evidence indicate that the global climate has been getting warmer since the early 20th century. This warmer climate has led to a global mean sea level rise of about 18 cm during the 20th century, and over 6 cm for the first 15 years of the 21st century. Regionally the sea level rise is not uniform due in large part to internal climate variability. To better serve the community, the uncertainties of predicting/projecting regional sea level changes associated with internal climate variability need to be quantified. Previous research on this topic has used single-model large ensemblesmore » with perturbed atmospheric initial conditions (ICs). Here we compare uncertainties associated with perturbing ICs in just the atmosphere and just the ocean using a state-of-the-art coupled climate model. We find that by perturbing the oceanic ICs, the uncertainties in regional sea level changes increase compared to those with perturbed atmospheric ICs. In order for us to better assess the full spectrum of the impacts of such internal climate variability on regional and global sea level rise, approaches that involve perturbing both atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions are thus necessary.« less

Integrating climate change considerations into forest management tools and training

Treesearch

Linda M. Nagel; Christopher W. Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak

2010-01-01

Silviculturists are currently facing the challenge of developing management strategies that meet broad ecological and social considerations in spite of a high degree of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. Forest managers need state-of-the-art knowledge about climate change and potential impacts to facilitate development of silvicultural objectives and...

Introduction to Indoor Air Quality

MedlinePlus

... as conditions caused by outdoor impacts (such as climate change). Many reports and studies indicate that the following ... Air Duct Cleaning Asthma Health, Energy Efficiency and Climate Change Flood Cleanup IAQ at Home Indoor airPLUS Mold ...

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monahan, William B.; Rosemartin, Alyssa; Gerst, Katharine L.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Gross, John E.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2016-01-01

Many U.S. national parks are already at the extreme warm end of their historical temperature distributions. With rapidly warming conditions, park resource management will be enhanced by information on seasonality of climate that supports adjustments in the timing of activities such as treating invasive species, operating visitor facilities, and scheduling climate-related events (e.g., flower festivals and fall leaf-viewing). Seasonal changes in vegetation, such as pollen, seed, and fruit production, are important drivers of ecological processes in parks, and phenology has thus been identified as a key indicator for park monitoring. Phenology is also one of the most proximate biological responses to climate change. Here, we use estimates of start of spring based on climatically modeled dates of first leaf and first bloom derived from indicator plant species to evaluate the recent timing of spring onset (past 10–30 yr) in each U.S. natural resource park relative to its historical range of variability across the past 112 yr (1901–2012). Of the 276 high latitude to subtropical parks examined, spring is advancing in approximately three-quarters of parks (76%), and 53% of parks are experiencing “extreme” early springs that exceed 95% of historical conditions. Our results demonstrate how changes in climate seasonality are important for understanding ecological responses to climate change, and further how spatial variability in effects of climate change necessitates different approaches to management. We discuss how our results inform climate change adaptation challenges and opportunities facing parks, with implications for other protected areas, by exploring consequences for resource management and planning.

Cross - Scale Intercomparison of Climate Change Impacts Simulated by Regional and Global Hydrological Models in Eleven Large River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hattermann, F. F.; Krysanova, V.; Gosling, S. N.; Dankers, R.; Daggupati, P.; Donnelly, C.; Florke, M.; Huang, S.; Motovilov, Y.; Buda, S.;

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change.

PubMed

Schiffers, Katja; Bourne, Elizabeth C; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Travis, Justin M J

2013-01-19

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population's evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population's evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population's evolvability under rapid environmental change.

Evaluating the relative impact of climate and economic changes on forest and agricultural ecosystem services in mountain regions.

PubMed

Briner, Simon; Elkin, Ché; Huber, Robert

2013-11-15

Provisioning of ecosystem services (ES) in mountainous regions is predicted to be influenced by i) the direct biophysical impacts of climate change, ii) climate mediated land use change, and iii) socioeconomic driven changes in land use. The relative importance and the spatial distribution of these factors on forest and agricultural derived ES, however, is unclear, making the implementation of ES management schemes difficult. Using an integrated economic-ecological modeling framework, we evaluated the impact of these driving forces on the provision of forest and agricultural ES in a mountain region of southern Switzerland. Results imply that forest ES will be strongly influenced by the direct impact of climate change, but that changes in land use will have a comparatively small impact. The simulation of direct impacts of climate change affects forest ES at all elevations, while land use changes can only be found at high elevations. In contrast, changes to agricultural ES were found to be primarily due to shifts in economic conditions that alter land use and land management. The direct influence of climate change on agriculture is only predicted to be substantial at high elevations, while socioeconomic driven shifts in land use are projected to affect agricultural ES at all elevations. Our simulation results suggest that policy schemes designed to mitigate the negative impact of climate change on forests should focus on suitable adaptive management plans, accelerating adaptation processes for currently forested areas. To maintain provision of agricultural ES policy needs to focus on economic conditions rather than on supporting adaptation to new climate. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

PubMed Central

Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

2016-01-01

Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities. PMID:27561410

Ecological constraints increase the climatic debt in forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertrand, Romain; Riofrío-Dillon, Gabriela; Lenoir, Jonathan; Drapier, Jacques; de Ruffray, Patrice; Gégout, Jean-Claude; Loreau, Michel

2016-08-01

Biodiversity changes are lagging behind current climate warming. The underlying determinants of this climatic debt are unknown and yet critical to understand the impacts of climate change on the present biota and improve forecasts of biodiversity changes. Here we assess determinants of climatic debt accumulated in French forest herbaceous plant communities between 1987 and 2008 (that is, a 1.05 °C mean difference between the observed and bioindicated temperatures). We show that warmer baseline conditions predispose plant communities to larger climatic debts, and that climate warming exacerbates this response. Forest plant communities, however, are absorbing part of the temperature increase mainly through the species' ability to tolerate changing climate. As climate warming is expected to accelerate during the twenty-first century, plant migration and tolerance to climatic stresses probably will be insufficient to absorb this impact posing threats to the sustainability of forest plant communities.

How Do Marine Pelagic Species Respond to Climate Change? Theories and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beaugrand, Grégory; Kirby, Richard R.

2018-01-01

In this review, we show how climate affects species, communities, and ecosystems, and why many responses from the species to the biome level originate from the interaction between the species’ ecological niche and changes in the environmental regime in both space and time. We describe a theory that allows us to understand and predict how marine species react to climate-induced changes in ecological conditions, how communities form and are reconfigured, and so how biodiversity is arranged and may respond to climate change. Our study shows that the responses of species to climate change are therefore intelligible—that is, they have a strong deterministic component and can be predicted.

Predicting woodrat (Neotoma) responses to anthropogenic warming from studies of the palaeomidden record

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Felisa A.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2006-01-01

Aim The influence of anthropogenic climate change on organisms is an area of great scientific concern. Increasingly there is recognition that abrupt climate transitions have occurred over the late Quaternary; studies of these shifts may yield insights into likely biotic responses to contemporary warming. Here, we review research undertaken over the past decade investigating the response of Neotoma (woodrats) body size and distribution to climate change over the late Quaternary (the last 40,000 years). By integrating information from woodrat palaeomiddens, historical museum specimens and field studies of modern populations, we identify potential evolutionary responses to climate change occurring over a variety of temporal and spatial scales. Specifically, we characterize climatic thresholds in the past that led to local species extirpation and/or range alterations rather than in situ adaptation, and apply them to anticipate potential biotic responses to anthropogenic climate change. Location Middens were collected at about 55 sites scattered across the western United States, ranging from about 34 to 46° N and about 104 to 116° W, respectively. Data for modern populations were drawn from studies conducted in Death Valley, California, Missoula, Montana and the Sevilleta LTER site in central New Mexico. Methods We analysed faecal pellets from midden series collected at numerous cave sites across the western United States. From these we estimated body mass using techniques validated in earlier studies. We compared body size fluctuations at different elevations in different regions and integrated these results with studies investigating temperature–body size tradeoffs in modern animals. We also quantify the rapidity of the size changes over the late Quaternary to estimate the evolutionary capacity of woodrats to deal with predicted rates of anthropogenic climate change over the next century. Results We find remarkable similarities across the geographical range to late Quaternary climate change. In the middle of the geographical range woodrats respond in accordance to Bergmann's rule: colder climatic conditions select for larger body size and warmer conditions select for smaller body size. Patterns are more complicated at range boundaries, and local environmental conditions influence the observed response. In general, woodrat body size fluctuates with approximately the same amplitude and frequency as climate; there is a significant and positive correlation between woodrat body size and generalized climate proxies (such as ice core records). Woodrats have achieved evolutionary rates of change equal to or greater than those needed to adapt in situ to anthropogenic climate change. Main conclusions In situ body size evolution is a likely outcome of climate change, and such shifts are part of a normal spectrum of adaptation. Woodrats appear to be subject to ongoing body size selection in response to fluctuating environmental conditions. Allometric considerations suggest that these shifts in body size lead to substantial changes in the physiology, life history and ecology of woodrats, and on their direct and indirect interactions with other organisms in the ecosystem. Our work highlights the importance of a finely resolved and long-term record in understanding biotic responses to climatic shifts.

Arts and Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cegnar, T.

2010-09-01

Arts and climate science have more in common points than it appears at first glance. Artistic works can help us to directly or indirectly learn about climatic conditions and weather events in the past, but are also very efficient in raising awareness about climate change nowadays. Long scientific articles get very little response among general public, because most people don't want to read long articles. There is a need to communicate climate change issues more powerfully and more directly, with simple words, pictures, sculptures, installations. Artistic works can inspire people to take concrete action. A number of communication media can fit this purpose. Artists can speak to people on an emotional and intellectual level; they can help people to see things from another perspective and in new ways. Artists can motivate change; they have the freedom to weave facts, opinions, thoughts, emotion and colour all together. Paintings are witnesses of the past climatic conditions. We can learn from paintings, architectural constructions and sculptures about the vegetation, weather events, animals, and way of living. Mentioning only some few examples: old paintings in caves, also Flemish painters are often shown for their winter landscapes, and paintings are very useful to illustrate how fast glaciers are melting. At the end, we shall not forget that dilapidation of art masterpieces often depends on climatic conditions.

Weather conditions conducive to Beijing severe haze more frequent under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Wenju; Li, Ke; Liao, Hong; Wang, Huijun; Wu, Lixin

2017-03-01

The frequency of Beijing winter severe haze episodes has increased substantially over the past decades, and is commonly attributed to increased pollutant emissions from China’s rapid economic development. During such episodes, levels of fine particulate matter are harmful to human health and the environment, and cause massive disruption to economic activities, as occurred in January 2013. Conducive weather conditions are an important ingredient of severe haze episodes, and include reduced surface winter northerlies, weakened northwesterlies in the midtroposphere, and enhanced thermal stability of the lower atmosphere. How such weather conditions may respond to climate change is not clear. Here we project a 50% increase in the frequency and an 80% increase in the persistence of conducive weather conditions similar to those in January 2013, in response to climate change. The frequency and persistence between the historical (1950-1999) and future (2050-2099) climate were compared in 15 models under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The increased frequency is consistent with large-scale circulation changes, including an Arctic Oscillation upward trend, weakening East Asian winter monsoon, and faster warming in the lower troposphere. Thus, circulation changes induced by global greenhouse gas emissions can contribute to the increased Beijing severe haze frequency.

Women's role in adapting to climate change and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carvajal-Escobar, Y.; Quintero-Angel, M.; García-Vargas, M.

2008-04-01

Given that women are engaged in more climate-related change activities than what is recognized and valued in the community, this article highlights their important role in the adaptation and search for safer communities, which leads them to understand better the causes and consequences of changes in climatic conditions. It is concluded that women have important knowledge and skills for orienting the adaptation processes, a product of their roles in society (productive, reproductive and community); and the importance of gender equity in these processes is recognized. The relationship among climate change, climate variability and the accomplishment of the Millennium Development Goals is considered.

Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change

PubMed Central

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica H.; Carlton, Elizabeth J.; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C.; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy J.; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Despite China’s rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. Because certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China’s rapid progress toward reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8–85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls due to non-climate reasons. PMID:25530812

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

PubMed

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-11-07

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

Delays in reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica H.; Carlton, Elizabeth J.; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C.; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy J.; Remais, Justin V.

2014-12-01

Despite China's rapid progress in improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. As certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrhoeal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China's rapid progress towards reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8-85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls owing to non-climate reasons.

Delays reducing waterborne and water-related infectious diseases in China under climate change.

PubMed

Hodges, Maggie; Belle, Jessica H; Carlton, Elizabeth J; Liang, Song; Li, Huazhong; Luo, Wei; Freeman, Matthew C; Liu, Yang; Gao, Yang; Hess, Jeremy J; Remais, Justin V

2014-12-01

Despite China's rapid progress improving water, sanitation and hygiene (WSH) access, in 2011, 471 million people lacked access to improved sanitation and 401 million to household piped water. Because certain infectious diseases are sensitive to changes in both climate and WSH conditions, we projected impacts of climate change on WSH-attributable diseases in China in 2020 and 2030 by coupling estimates of the temperature sensitivity of diarrheal diseases and three vector-borne diseases, temperature projections from global climate models, WSH-infrastructure development scenarios, and projected demographic changes. By 2030, climate change is projected to delay China's rapid progress toward reducing WSH-attributable infectious disease burden by 8-85 months. This development delay summarizes the adverse impact of climate change on WSH-attributable infectious diseases in China, and can be used in other settings where a significant health burden may accompany future changes in climate even as the total burden of disease falls due to non-climate reasons.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

PubMed Central

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-01-01

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

Influence of local climate and climate change on aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms.

PubMed

Gladis-Schmacka, Franziska; Glatzel, Stephan; Karsten, Ulf; Böttcher, Heidrun; Schumann, Rhena

2014-01-01

Aeroterrestrial phototrophic biofilms colonize natural and man-made surfaces and may damage the material they settle on. The occurrence of biofilms varies between regions with different climatic conditions. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of meteorological factors on the growth of aeroterrestrial phototrophs. Phototrophic biomass was recorded on roof tiles at six sites within Germany five times over a period of five years and compared to climatic parameters from neighboring weather stations. All correlating meteorological factors influenced water availability on the surface of the roof tiles. The results indicate that the frequency of rainy days and not the mean precipitation per season is more important for biofilm proliferation. It is also inferred that the macroclimate is more important than the microclimate. In conclusion, changed (regional) climatic conditions may determine where in central Europe global change will promote or inhibit phototrophic growth in the future.

Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burge, Colleen A.; Eakin, C. Mark; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Froelich, Brett; Hershberger, Paul K.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Petes, Laura E.; Prager, Katherine C.; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette L.; Ford, Susan E.; Harvell, C. Drew

2014-01-01

Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here, we focus on reviewing current knowledge about how the climate drives hostpathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked to other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.

Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems

PubMed Central

Russell, Bayden D.; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Wernberg, Thomas; Mieszkowska, Nova; Widdicombe, Stephen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Connell, Sean D.

2012-01-01

Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates. PMID:21900317

Ocean Modeling and Visualization on Massively Parallel Computer

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Yi; Li, P. Peggy; Wang, Ping; Katz, Daniel S.; Cheng, Benny N.

1997-01-01

Climate modeling is one of the grand challenges of computational science, and ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change.

Consistent role of Quaternary climate change in shaping current plant functional diversity patterns across European plant orders.

PubMed

Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2017-02-23

Current and historical environmental conditions are known to determine jointly contemporary species distributions and richness patterns. However, whether historical dynamics in species distributions and richness translate to functional diversity patterns remains, for the most part, unknown. The geographic patterns of plant functional space size (richness) and packing (dispersion) for six widely distributed orders of European angiosperms were estimated using atlas distribution data and trait information. Then the relative importance of late-Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change and contemporary environmental factors (climate, productivity, and topography) as determinants of functional diversity of evaluated orders was assesed. Functional diversity patterns of all evaluated orders exhibited prominent glacial-interglacial climate change imprints, complementing the influence of contemporary environmental conditions. The importance of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climate change factors was comparable to that of contemporary environmental factors across evaluated orders. Therefore, high long-term paleoclimate variability has imposed consistent supplementary constraints on functional diversity of multiple plant groups, a legacy that may permeate to ecosystem functioning and resilience. These findings suggest that strong near-future anthropogenic climate change may elicit long-term functional disequilibria in plant functional diversity.

Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada.

PubMed

Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

2014-07-01

Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMAX-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56% of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

Modeling climate effects on hip fracture rate by the multivariate GARCH model in Montreal region, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modarres, Reza; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Vanasse, Alain; Orzanco, Maria Gabriela; Gosselin, Pierre

2014-07-01

Changes in extreme meteorological variables and the demographic shift towards an older population have made it important to investigate the association of climate variables and hip fracture by advanced methods in order to determine the climate variables that most affect hip fracture incidence. The nonlinear autoregressive moving average with exogenous variable-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA X-GARCH) and multivariate GARCH (MGARCH) time series approaches were applied to investigate the nonlinear association between hip fracture rate in female and male patients aged 40-74 and 75+ years and climate variables in the period of 1993-2004, in Montreal, Canada. The models describe 50-56 % of daily variation in hip fracture rate and identify snow depth, air temperature, day length and air pressure as the influencing variables on the time-varying mean and variance of the hip fracture rate. The conditional covariance between climate variables and hip fracture rate is increasing exponentially, showing that the effect of climate variables on hip fracture rate is most acute when rates are high and climate conditions are at their worst. In Montreal, climate variables, particularly snow depth and air temperature, appear to be important predictors of hip fracture incidence. The association of climate variables and hip fracture does not seem to change linearly with time, but increases exponentially under harsh climate conditions. The results of this study can be used to provide an adaptive climate-related public health program and ti guide allocation of services for avoiding hip fracture risk.

Forest tree growth response to hydroclimate variability in the southern Appalachians

Treesearch

Katherine J. Elliott; Chelcy Ford Miniat; Neil Pederson; Stephanie H. Laseter

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect tree species growth and distribution; however, under the same climatic conditions species may differ in their response according to site conditions. We evaluated the climate-driven patterns of growth for six dominant deciduous tree species in the southern Appalachians. We categorized species into two functional groups based on their stomatal...

Neandertal versus Modern Human Dietary Responses to Climatic Fluctuations

PubMed Central

El Zaatari, Sireen; Grine, Frederick E.; Ungar, Peter S.; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2016-01-01

The Neandertal lineage developed successfully throughout western Eurasia and effectively survived the harsh and severely changing environments of the alternating glacial/interglacial cycles from the middle of the Pleistocene until Marine Isotope Stage 3. Yet, towards the end of this stage, at the time of deteriorating climatic conditions that eventually led to the Last Glacial Maximum, and soon after modern humans entered western Eurasia, the Neandertals disappeared. Western Eurasia was by then exclusively occupied by modern humans. We use occlusal molar microwear texture analysis to examine aspects of diet in western Eurasian Paleolithic hominins in relation to fluctuations in food supplies that resulted from the oscillating climatic conditions of the Pleistocene. There is demonstrable evidence for differences in behavior that distinguish Upper Paleolithic humans from members of the Neandertal lineage. Specifically, whereas the Neandertals altered their diets in response to changing paleoecological conditions, the diets of Upper Paleolithic humans seem to have been less affected by slight changes in vegetation/climatic conditions but were linked to changes in their technological complexes. The results of this study also indicate differences in resource exploitation strategies between these two hominin groups. We argue that these differences in subsistence strategies, if they had already been established at the time of the first contact between these two hominin taxa, may have given modern humans an advantage over the Neandertals, and may have contributed to the persistence of our species despite habitat-related changes in food availabilities associated with climate fluctuations. PMID:27119336

Neandertal versus Modern Human Dietary Responses to Climatic Fluctuations.

PubMed

El Zaatari, Sireen; Grine, Frederick E; Ungar, Peter S; Hublin, Jean-Jacques

2016-01-01

The Neandertal lineage developed successfully throughout western Eurasia and effectively survived the harsh and severely changing environments of the alternating glacial/interglacial cycles from the middle of the Pleistocene until Marine Isotope Stage 3. Yet, towards the end of this stage, at the time of deteriorating climatic conditions that eventually led to the Last Glacial Maximum, and soon after modern humans entered western Eurasia, the Neandertals disappeared. Western Eurasia was by then exclusively occupied by modern humans. We use occlusal molar microwear texture analysis to examine aspects of diet in western Eurasian Paleolithic hominins in relation to fluctuations in food supplies that resulted from the oscillating climatic conditions of the Pleistocene. There is demonstrable evidence for differences in behavior that distinguish Upper Paleolithic humans from members of the Neandertal lineage. Specifically, whereas the Neandertals altered their diets in response to changing paleoecological conditions, the diets of Upper Paleolithic humans seem to have been less affected by slight changes in vegetation/climatic conditions but were linked to changes in their technological complexes. The results of this study also indicate differences in resource exploitation strategies between these two hominin groups. We argue that these differences in subsistence strategies, if they had already been established at the time of the first contact between these two hominin taxa, may have given modern humans an advantage over the Neandertals, and may have contributed to the persistence of our species despite habitat-related changes in food availabilities associated with climate fluctuations.

A methodological framework to assess PMP and PMF in snow-dominated watersheds under changing climate conditions - A case study of three watersheds in Québec (Canada)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rouhani, Hassan; Leconte, Robert

2018-06-01

Climate change will affect precipitation and flood regimes. It is anticipated that the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) will be modified in a changing climate. This paper aims to quantify and analyze climate change influences on PMP and PMF in three watersheds with different climatic conditions across the province of Québec, Canada. Output data from the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) was used to estimate PMP and Probable Maximum Snow Accumulation (PMSA) in future climate projections, which was then used to force the SWAT hydrological model to estimate PMF. PMP and PMF values were estimated for two time horizons each spanning 30 years: 1961-1990 (recent past) and 2041-2070 (future). PMP and PMF were separately analyzed for two seasons: summer-fall and spring. Results show that PMF in the watershed located in southern Québec would remain unchanged in the future horizon, but the trend for the watersheds located in the northeastern and northern areas of the province is an increase of up to 11%.

Making climate change tangible for strategic adaptation planning: The Climate Corridor Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlowsky, Boris; Calanca, Pierluigi; Ali, Irshad; Ali, Jawad; Elguera Hilares, Agustin; Huggel, Christian; Khan, Inamullah; Neukom, Raphael; Nizami, Arjumand; Qazi, Muhammad Abbas; Robledo, Carmenza; Rohrer, Mario; Salzmann, Nadine; Schmidt, Kaspar

2017-04-01

Climate change is a global phenomenon and difficult to grasp. Although its importance is generally acknowledged, impacts of (future) climate change on human activities are in many cases not taken into account explicitly, in particular when planning development projects. This is due to technical and conceptual challenges, missing financial and human resources and competing priorities. Neglecting climate change can become problematic, if a proposed activity requires specific climatological conditions under which it becomes feasible, a simple example being crop cultivation that needs certain temperature an d precipitation ranges. Comparing such ``climate corridors'' to future climate projections provides an intuitive and low-cost yet quantitative means for assessing needs for, and viability of, adaptation activities under climate change - a "poor man's approach" to climate suitability analysis. A chief advantage of this approach is its modest demand on data. Three case studies from Pakistan, Peru and Tajikistan show that climate corridor analysis can deliver robust results and can be used to efficiently communicate risks and challenges of climate change to partners and stakeholders in the developing countries.

Climate change impairs processes of soil and plant N cycling in European beech forests on marginal soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tejedor, Javier; Gasche, Rainer; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Leberecht, Martin; Bimüller, Carolin; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Pole, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Rennenberg, Heinz; Simon, Judy; Hanewinkel, Marc; Baltensweiler, Andri; Bilela, Silvija; Dannenmann, Michael

2014-05-01

Beech forests of Central Europe are covering large areas with marginal calcareous soils, but provide important ecological services and represent a significant economical value. The vulnerability of these ecosystems to projected climate conditions (higher temperatures, increase of extreme drought and precipitation events) is currently unclear. Here we present comprehensive data on the influence of climate change conditions on ecosystem performance, considering soil nitrogen biogeochemistry, soil microbiology, mycorrhiza ecology and plant physiology. We simultaneously quantified major plant and soil gross N turnover processes by homogenous triple 15N isotope labeling of intact beech natural regeneration-soil-microbe systems. This isotope approach was combined with a space for time climate change experiment, i.e. we transferred intact beech seedling-soil-microbe mesocosms from a slope with N-exposure (representing present day climate conditions) to a slope with S exposure (serving as a warmer and drier model climate for future conditions). Transfers within N slope served as controls. After an equilibration period of 1 year, three isotope labeling/harvest cycles were performed. Reduced soil water content resulted in a persistent decline of ammonia oxidizing bacteria in soil (AOB). Consequently, we found a massive five-fold reduction of gross nitrification in the climate change treatment and a subsequent strong decline in soil nitrate concentrations as well as nitrate uptake by microorganisms and beech. Because nitrate was the major nutrient for beech in this forest type with little importance of ammonium and amino acids, this resulted in a strongly reduced performance of beech natural regeneration with reduced N content, N metabolite concentrations and plant biomass. These findings provided an explanation for a large-scale decline of distribution of beech forests on calcareous soils in Europe by almost 80% until 2080 predicted by statistical modeling. Hence, we question the sustainability of such forests under projected climate change conditions, but also discuss potential mitigation and adaptation options. Important comment: The topic of this abstract is subject to a press embargo, because it is in review at a Nature Journal

Denitrification nitrogen gas formation and gene expression in alpine grassland soil as affected by climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Zhe; Wang, Changhui; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Schloter, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus; Dannenmann, Michael

2013-04-01

Due to methodological problems, reliable data on soil dinitrogen (N2) emission by denitrification are extremely scarce, and the impacts of climate change on nitrogen (N) gas formation by denitrification and N gas product ratios as well as the underlying microbial drivers remain unclear. We combined the helium-gas-flow-soil-core technique for simultaneously quantification of nitrous oxide (N2O) and N2 emission with the reverse transcript qPCR technology. Our goals were to characterize denitrification dynamics and N gas product ratios in alpine grassland soil as affected by climate change conditions and to evaluate relationships between denitrification gene expression and N gas emission. We used soils from the pre-alpine grassland Terrestrial Environmental Observatory (TERENO), exposed to ambient temperature and precipitation (control treatment), or three years of simulated climate change conditions (increased temperature, reduction of summer precipitation and reduced snow cover). Soils were amended with glucose and nitrate and incubated subsequently at 1) 5°C and 20% oxygen; 2) 5°C and 0% oxygen; 3) 20°C and 0% oxygen until stabilization of N gas emissions in each incubation step. After switching incubation conditions to 0% oxygen and 20°C, N2O emission peaked immediately and declined again, followed by a delayed peak in N2 emission. The dynamics of cnorB gene expression, encoding the reduction of nitric oxide (NO) to N2O, followed the N2O emission pattern, while nosZ gene expression, encoding N2O reduction to N2 followed the course of N2 emission. The mean N2O:N2 ratios were 1.31 + 0.10 and 1.56 + 0.16 for control and climate change treatment respectively, but the denitrification potential was overall lower in climate change treatment. Hence, simulated climate change promoted N2O but lessened N2 emission. This stimulation of N2O was in accordance with increased cnorB gene expression in soil of the climate change treatment. N mass balance calculations revealed that denitrification N gas formation accounted for 21%, dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium for 8%, and microbial immobilization for 73% of nitrate consumption. Overall, our study shows that changes in climate exert feedback on denitrification N gas formation and N gas product ratios via changes in microbial activity at the level of single denitrification steps. The close relationships found between denitrification N gas formation, N gas product ratios and denitrification gene expression suggests a large potential of molecular methods to predict denitrification dynamics in soil.

Modelling regional variability of irrigation requirements due to climate change in Northern Germany.

PubMed

Riediger, Jan; Breckling, Broder; Svoboda, Nikolai; Schröder, Winfried

2016-01-15

The question whether global climate change invalidates the efficiency of established land use practice cannot be answered without systemic considerations on a region specific basis. In this context plant water availability and irrigation requirements, respectively, were investigated in Northern Germany. The regions under investigation--Diepholz, Uelzen, Fläming and Oder-Spree--represent a climatic gradient with increasing continentality from West to East. Besides regional climatic variation and climate change, soil conditions and crop management differ on the regional scale. In the model regions, temporal seasonal droughts influence crop success already today, but on different levels of intensity depending mainly on climate conditions. By linking soil water holding capacities, crop management data and calculations of evapotranspiration and precipitation from the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 irrigation requirements for maintaining crop productivity were estimated for the years 1991 to 2070. Results suggest that water requirement for crop irrigation is likely to increase with considerable regional variation. For some of the regions, irrigation requirements might increase to such an extent that the established regional agricultural practice might be hard to retain. Where water availability is limited, agricultural practice, like management and cultivated crop spectrum, has to be changed to deal with the new challenges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Updating Known Distribution Models for Forecasting Climate Change Impact on Endangered Species

PubMed Central

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only. PMID:23840330

Updating known distribution models for forecasting climate change impact on endangered species.

PubMed

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2013-01-01

To plan endangered species conservation and to design adequate management programmes, it is necessary to predict their distributional response to climate change, especially under the current situation of rapid change. However, these predictions are customarily done by relating de novo the distribution of the species with climatic conditions with no regard of previously available knowledge about the factors affecting the species distribution. We propose to take advantage of known species distribution models, but proceeding to update them with the variables yielded by climatic models before projecting them to the future. To exemplify our proposal, the availability of suitable habitat across Spain for the endangered Bonelli's Eagle (Aquila fasciata) was modelled by updating a pre-existing model based on current climate and topography to a combination of different general circulation models and Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Our results suggested that the main threat for this endangered species would not be climate change, since all forecasting models show that its distribution will be maintained and increased in mainland Spain for all the XXI century. We remark on the importance of linking conservation biology with distribution modelling by updating existing models, frequently available for endangered species, considering all the known factors conditioning the species' distribution, instead of building new models that are based on climate change variables only.

A tool to assess potential for alien plant establishment and expansion under climate change.

PubMed

Roger, Erin; Duursma, Daisy Englert; Downey, Paul O; Gallagher, Rachael V; Hughes, Lesley; Steel, Jackie; Johnson, Stephen B; Leishman, Michelle R

2015-08-15

Predicting the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of naturalised alien plant species is an important and challenging task. While prioritisation of management actions for alien plants under current climatic conditions has been widely adopted, very few systems explicitly incorporate the potential of future changes in climate conditions to influence the distribution of alien plant species. Here, we develop an Australia-wide screening tool to assess the potential of naturalised alien plants to establish and spread under both current and future climatic conditions. The screening tool developed uses five spatially explicit criteria to establish the likelihood of alien plant population establishment and expansion under baseline climate conditions and future climates for the decades 2035 and 2065. Alien plants are then given a threat rating according to current and future threat to enable natural resource managers to focus on those species that pose the largest potential threat now and in the future. To demonstrate the screening tool, we present results for a representative sample of approximately 10% (n = 292) of Australia's known, naturalised alien plant species. Overall, most alien plant species showed decreases in area of habitat suitability under future conditions compared to current conditions and therefore the threat rating of most alien plant species declined between current and future conditions. Use of the screening tool is intended to assist natural resource managers in assessing the threat of alien plant establishment and spread under current and future conditions and thus prioritise detailed weed risk assessments for those species that pose the greatest threat. The screening tool is associated with a searchable database for all 292 alien plant species across a range of spatial scales, available through an interactive web-based portal at http://weedfutures.net/. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate change on soil erosion in Portuguese watersheds with contrasting Mediterranean climates and agroforestry practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nunes, J. P.; Lima, J. C.; Bernard-Jannin, L.; Veiga, S.; Rodríguez-Blanco, M. L.; Sampaio, E.; Batista, D. P.; Zhang, R.; Rial-Rivas, M. E.; Moreira, M.; Santos, J. M.; Keizer, J. J.; Corte-Real, J.

2012-04-01

Climate change in Mediterranean regions could lead to higher winter rainfall intensity and, due to higher climatic aridity, lower vegetation cover. This could lead to increasing soil erosion rates, accelerating ongoing soil degradation and desertification processes. Adaptation to these scenarios would have costs and benefits associated with soil protection but also agroforestry production and water usage. This presentation will cover project ERLAND, which is studying these impacts for two headwater catchments (<1000 ha) in Portugal, located in distinct climatic conditions within the Mediterranean climate area, and their land-use practices are adapted to these conditions. The Macieira de Alcoba catchment in northern Portugal has a wet Mediterranean climate (1800 mm/yr, but with a dry summer season). The high rainfall allows the plantation of fast growing tree species (pine and eucalypt) in the higher slopes, and the irrigation of corn in the lower slopes. Forest fires are a recurring problem, linked with the high biomass growth and the occurrence of a dry season. Potential impacts of climate change include less favorable conditions for eucalypt growth, higher incidence of wildfires, and less available water for summer irrigation, all of which could lead to lower vegetation cover. The Guadalupe catchment in southern Portugal has a dry Mediterranean climate (700 mm/yr, falling mostly in winter). The land-use is montado, an association between sclerophyllous oaks (cork and holm oaks) and annual herbaceous plans (winter wheat or pasture). The region suffers occasional severe droughts; climate change has the potential to increase the frequency and severity of these droughts, leading to lower vegetation cover and, potentially, limiting the conditions for cork and holm oak growth. Each catchment has been instrumented with erosion measurement plots and flow and turbidity measurements at the outlet, together with surveys of vegetation and soil properties; measurements in Macieira began in 2010 and in Guadalupe they began in 2011. These datasets will be used to parameterize, calibrate and validate the SWAT ecohydrological model, in order to ensure the appropriate simulation of the most important hydrological, vegetation growth and erosion processes which could be impacted upon by climate change. The model will, in turn, be the main tool to study future climate and land-use scenarios. The presentation will focus on the data collected so far, the modeling structure, and preliminary results coming for the work.

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate.

PubMed

Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A; Olden, Julian D; Smith, Scott S; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Piorkowski, Robert J; McPhedran, John

2008-06-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change.

Impact of Climate Conditions on Occupational Health and Related Economic Losses: A New Feature of Global and Urban Health in the Context of Climate Change.

PubMed

Kjellstrom, Tord

2016-03-01

One feature of climate change is the increasing heat exposure in many workplaces where efficient cooling systems cannot be applied. Excessive heat exposure is a particular problem for working people because of the internal heat production when muscle work is carried out. The physiological basis for severe heat stroke, other clinical effects, and heat exhaustion is well known. One feature of this health effect of excessive workplace heat exposure is reduced work capacity, and new research has started to quantify this effect in the context of climate change. Current climate conditions in tropical and subtropical parts of the world are already so hot during the hot seasons that occupational health effects occur and work capacity for many working people is affected. The Hothaps-Soft database and software andClimateCHIP.orgwebsite make it possible to rapidly produce estimates of local heat conditions and trends. The results can be mapped to depict the spatial distribution of workplace heat stress. In South-East Asia as much as 15% to 20% of annual work hours may already be lost in heat-exposed jobs, and this may double by 2050 as global climate change progresses. By combining heat exposure data and estimates of the economic consequences, the vulnerability of many low- and middle-income countries is evident. The annual cost of reduced labor productivity at country level already in 2030 can be several percent of GDP, which means billions of US dollars even for medium-size countries. The results provide new arguments for effective climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and preventive actions in all countries. © 2015 APJPH.

Integrated monitoring and information systems for managing aquatic invasive species in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lee, Henry; Reusser, Deborah A.; Olden, Julian D.; Smith, Scott S.; Graham, Jim; Burkett, Virginia; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Piorkowski, Robert J.; Mcphedran, John

2008-01-01

Changes in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic drivers and sea-level rise will affect populations of existing native and non-native aquatic species and the vulnerability of aquatic environments to new invasions. Monitoring surveys provide the foundation for assessing the combined effects of climate change and invasions by providing baseline biotic and environmental conditions, although the utility of a survey depends on whether the results are quantitative or qualitative, and other design considerations. The results from a variety of monitoring programs in the United States are available in integrated biological information systems, although many include only non-native species, not native species. Besides including natives, we suggest these systems could be improved through the development of standardized methods that capture habitat and physiological requirements and link regional and national biological databases into distributed Web portals that allow drawing information from multiple sources. Combining the outputs from these biological information systems with environmental data would allow the development of ecological-niche models that predict the potential distribution or abundance of native and non-native species on the basis of current environmental conditions. Environmental projections from climate models can be used in these niche models to project changes in species distributions or abundances under altered climatic conditions and to identify potential high-risk invaders. There are, however, a number of challenges, such as uncertainties associated with projections from climate and niche models and difficulty in integrating data with different temporal and spatial granularity. Even with these uncertainties, integration of biological and environmental information systems, niche models, and climate projections would improve management of aquatic ecosystems under the dual threats of biotic invasions and climate change

Climate change adaptation: where does global health fit in the agenda?

PubMed

Bowen, Kathryn J; Friel, Sharon

2012-05-27

Human-induced climate change will affect the lives of most populations in the next decade and beyond. It will have greatest, and generally earliest, impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged populations on the planet. Changes in climatic conditions and increases in weather variability affect human wellbeing, safety, health and survival in many ways. Some impacts are direct-acting and immediate, such as impaired food yields and storm surges. Other health effects are less immediate and typically occur via more complex causal pathways that involve a range of underlying social conditions and sectors such as water and sanitation, agriculture and urban planning. Climate change adaptation is receiving much attention given the inevitability of climate change and its effects, particularly in developing contexts, where the effects of climate change will be experienced most strongly and the response mechanisms are weakest. Financial support towards adaptation activities from various actors including the World Bank, the European Union and the United Nations is increasing substantially. With this new global impetus and funding for adaptation action come challenges such as the importance of developing adaptation activities on a sound understanding of baseline community needs and vulnerabilities, and how these may alter with changes in climate. The global health community is paying heed to the strengthening focus on adaptation, albeit in a slow and unstructured manner. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of adaptation and its relevance to global health, and highlight the opportunities to improve health and reduce health inequities via the new and additional funding that is available for climate change adaptation activities.

Impact of climate change on water balance components in Mediterranean rainfed olive orchards under tillage or cover crop soil management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Carretero, María Teresa; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Dosio, Alessandro; Gómez, José A.

2013-04-01

The rainfed olive orchards in Southern Spain constitute the main socioeconomic system of the Mediterranean Spanish agriculture. These systems have an elevated level of complexity and require the accurate characterization of crop, climate and soil components for a correct management. It is common the inclusion of cover crops (usually winter cereals or natural cover) intercalated between the olive rows in order to reduce water erosion. Saving limited available water requires specific management, mowing or killing these cover crops in early spring. Thus, under the semi-arid conditions in Southern Spain the management of the cover crops in rainfed olive orchards is essential to avoid a severe impact to the olive orchards yield through depletion of soil water. In order to characterize this agricultural system, a complete water balance model has been developed, calibrated and validated for the semi-arid conditions of Southern Spain, called WABOL (Abazi et al., 2013). In this complex and fragile system, the climate change constitutes a huge threat for its sustainability, currently limited by the availability of water resources, and its forecasted reduction for Mediterranean environments in Southern Spain. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of climate change on the different components of the water balance in these representative double cropping systems: transpiration of the olive orchard and cover crop, runoff, deep percolation and soil water content. Four climatic scenarios from the FP6 European Project ENSEMBLES were first bias corrected for temperatures and precipitation (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) and, subsequently, used as inputs for the WABOL model for five olive orchard fields located in Southern Spain under different conditions of crop, climate, soils and management, in order to consider as much as possible of the variability detected in the Spanish olive orchards. The first results indicate the significant effect of the cover crop on the transpiration of the olive orchard, indicating that a correct water and soil management is crucial for these systems especially under climate change conditions. Thus, a significant reduction of transpiration was detected when the cover crops were implanted. When the climatic conditions were more limited (reductions of around 21% for the annual precipitation and increases around 13% for reference evapotranspiration), the impact on olive orchards were critical, affecting seriously the profitability of the olive orchards. In this context, cover crops can be considered as part of adaptation strategies. Further studies will be required for the determination of optimal species and varieties to be used as cover crops to reduce the impact of climate change on olive orchards under semi-arid conditions. References Abazi U, Lorite IJ, Cárceles B, Martínez-Raya A, Durán VH, Francia JR, Gómez JA (2013) WABOL: A conceptual water balance model for analyzing rainfall water use in olive orchards under different soil and cover crop Management strategies. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 91:35-48 Dosio A, Paruolo P (2011) Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, V 116, D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A, Paruolo P, Rojas R (2012) Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research, V 117, D17, doi: 10.1029/2012JD017968

Climate change and coastal vulnerability assessment: Scenarios for integrated assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, R.J.; Wong, P.P.; Burkett, V.; Woodroffe, C.D.; Hay, J.

2008-01-01

Coastal vulnerability assessments still focus mainly on sea-level rise, with less attention paid to other dimensions of climate change. The influence of non-climatic environmental change or socio-economic change is even less considered, and is often completely ignored. Given that the profound coastal changes of the twentieth century are likely to continue through the twenty-first century, this is a major omission, which may overstate the importance of climate change, and may also miss significant interactions of climate change with other non-climate drivers. To better support climate and coastal management policy development, more integrated assessments of climatic change in coastal areas are required, including the significant non-climatic changes. This paper explores the development of relevant climate and non-climate drivers, with an emphasis on the non-climate drivers. While these issues are applicable within any scenario framework, our ideas are illustrated using the widely used SRES scenarios, with both impacts and adaptation being considered. Importantly, scenario development is a process, and the assumptions that are made about future conditions concerning the coast need to be explicit, transparent and open to scientific debate concerning their realism and likelihood. These issues are generic across other sectors. ?? Integrated Research System for Sustainability Science and Springer 2008.

Vegetation change, malnutrition and violence in the Horn of Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rowhani, P.; Degomme, O.; Linderman, M.; Guha-Sapir, D.; Lambin, E.

2008-12-01

In certain circumstances, climate change in association with a broad range of social factors may increase the risk of famines and subsequently, violent conflict. The impacts of climate change on society will be experienced both through changes in mean conditions over long time periods and through increases in extreme events. Recent studies have shown the historical effects of long term climate change on societies and the importance of short term climatic triggers on armed conflict. However, most of these studies are at the state level ignoring local conditions. Here we use detailed information extracted from wide-swath satellite data (MODIS) to analyze the impact of climate variability change on malnutrition and violent conflict. More specifically, we perform multivariate logistic regression analysis in order to explain the geographical distribution of malnutrition and conflict in the Horn of Africa on a sub-national level. This region, constituted by several unstable and poor states, has been affected by droughts, floods, famines, and violence in the past few years. Three commonly used nutrition and mortality indicators are used to characterize the health situation (CE-DAT database). To map violence we use the georeferenced Armed Conflicts dataset developed by the Center for the Study of Civil War. Explanatory variables include several socio-economic variables and environmental variables characterizing land degradation, vegetation activity, and interannual variability in land-surface conditions. First results show that interannual variability in land-surface conditions is associated with malnutrition but not with armed conflict. Furthermore, land degradation seems not to be associated with either malnutrition or armed conflict.

Ecological niche models reveal the importance of climate variability for the biogeography of protosteloid amoebae

PubMed Central

Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos

2012-01-01

Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds—protosteloid amoebae—in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an ‘everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale. PMID:22402402

Ecological niche models reveal the importance of climate variability for the biogeography of protosteloid amoebae.

PubMed

Aguilar, María; Lado, Carlos

2012-08-01

Habitat availability and environmental preferences of species are among the most important factors in determining the success of dispersal processes and therefore in shaping the distribution of protists. We explored the differences in fundamental niches and potential distributions of an ecological guild of slime moulds-protosteloid amoebae-in the Iberian Peninsula. A large set of samples collected in a north-east to south-west transect of approximately 1000 km along the peninsula was used to test the hypothesis that, together with the existence of suitable microhabitats, climate conditions may determine the probability of survival of species. Although protosteloid amoebae share similar morphologies and life history strategies, canonical correspondence analyses showed that they have varied ecological optima, and that climate conditions have an important effect in niche differentiation. Maxent environmental niche models provided consistent predictions of the probability of presence of the species based on climate data, and they were used to generate maps of potential distribution in an 'everything is everywhere' scenario. The most important climatic factors were, in both analyses, variables that measure changes in conditions throughout the year, confirming that the alternation of fruiting bodies, cysts and amoeboid stages in the life cycles of protosteloid amoebae constitutes an advantage for surviving in a changing environment. Microhabitat affinity seems to be influenced by climatic conditions, which suggests that the micro-environment may vary at a local scale and change together with the external climate at a larger scale.

Species-free species distribution models describe macroecological properties of protected area networks.

PubMed

Robinson, Jason L; Fordyce, James A

2017-01-01

Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or "footprint") of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have narrow geographic distributions, and are thus prone to future shifts away from the climatic conditions in these parks in current climates. In other cases, some parks are broadly similar to large geographic regions surrounding the park or have climatic envelopes that may persist into near-term climate change. Larger parks predict larger climatic envelopes, in current conditions, but on average the predicted area of climate envelopes are smaller in our single future conditions scenario. Individual units in a protected area network may vary in the potential for climate adaptation, and adaptive management strategies for the network should account for the landscape contexts of the geodiversity or climate diversity within individual units. Conservation strategies, including maintaining connectivity, assessing the feasibility of assisted migration and other landscape restoration or enhancements can be optimized using analysis methods to assess the spatial properties of protected area networks in biogeographic and macroecological contexts.

Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas.

PubMed

García Molinos, Jorge; Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Burrows, Michael T; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamano, Hiroya

2017-10-01

Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA network that may provide stepping-stone protection for species that must shift their distribution because of climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Remote sensing applications for estimating changes on crop evapotranspiration of the most water intensive crops, due to climate change in Cyprus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papadavid, G.; Neocleous, D.; Stylianou, A.; Markou, M.; Kountios, G.; Hadjimitsis, D.

2016-08-01

Water allocation to crops, and especially to the most water intensive ones, has always been of great importance in agricultural process. Deficit or excess water irrigation quantities could create either crop health related problems or water over-consumption situation which lead to stored water reduction and toxic material depletion to deeper ground layers, respectively. In this context, and under the current conditions, where Cyprus is facing effects of climate changes, purpose of this study is basically to estimate the needed crop water requirements of the past (1995-2004) and the corresponding ones of the present (2005-2015) in order to test if there were any significant changes regarding the crop water requirements of the most water intensive trees in Cyprus. Mediterranean region has been identified as the region that will suffer the most from climate change. Thus the paper refers to effects of climate changes on crop evapotranspiration (ETc) using remotely sensed data from Landsat TM/ ETM+ / OLI employing a sound methodology used worldwide, the Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL). Though the general feeling is that of changes on climate will consequently affect ETc, the results have indicated that there is no significant effect of climate change on crop evapotranspiration, despite the fact that some climatic factors have changed. Applying Student's T-test, the mean values for the most water intensive trees in Cyprus of the 1994-2004 decade have shown no statistical difference from the mean values of 2005-2015 decade's for all the cases, concluding that the climate change taking place the last decades in Cyprus have either not affected the crop evapotranspiration or the crops have manage to adapt into the new environmental conditions through time.

Analysing regional climate change in Africa in a 1.5 °C global warming world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weber, Torsten; Haensler, Andreas; Jacob, Daniela

2017-04-01

At the 21st session of the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris, a reaffirmation to strengthen the effort to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 °C was decided. However, even if global warming is limited, some regions might still be substantially affected by climate change, especially for continents like Africa where the socio-economic conditions are strongly linked to the climatic conditions. Hence, providing a detailed analysis of the projected climate changes in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario will allow the African society to undertake measures for adaptation in order to mitigate potential negative consequences. In order to provide such climate change information, the existing CORDEX Africa ensemble for RCP2.6 scenario simulations has systematically been increased by conducting additional REMO simulations using data from various global circulation models (GCMs) as lateral boundary conditions. Based on this ensemble, which now consists of eleven CORDEX Africa RCP2.6 regional climate model simulations from three RCMs (forced with different GCMs), various temperature and precipitation indices such as number of cold/hot days and nights, duration of the rainy season, the amount of rainfall in the rainy seasons and the number of dry spells have been calculated for a 1.5 °C global warming scenario. The applied method to define the 1.5 °C global warming period has been already applied in the IMPACT2C project. In our presentation, we will discuss the analysis of the climate indices in a 1.5 °C global warming world for the CORDEX-Africa region. Amongst presenting the magnitude of projected changes, we will also address the question for selected indices if the changes projected in a 1.5 °C global warming scenario are already larger than the climate variability and we will also draw links to the changes projected under a more extreme scenario.

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2018-06-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Robust Engineering Designs for Infrastructure Adaptation to a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaras, C.; Cook, L.

2015-12-01

Infrastructure systems are expected to be functional, durable and safe over long service lives - 50 to over 100 years. Observations and models of climate science show that greenhouse gas emissions resulting from human activities have changed climate, weather and extreme events. Projections of future changes (albeit with uncertainties caused by inadequacies of current climate/weather models) can be made based on scenarios for future emissions, but actual future emissions are themselves uncertain. Most current engineering standards and practices for infrastructure assume that the probabilities of future extreme climate and weather events will match those of the past. Climate science shows that this assumption is invalid, but is unable, at present, to define these probabilities over the service lives of existing and new infrastructure systems. Engineering designs, plans, and institutions and regulations will need to be adaptable for a range of future conditions (conditions of climate, weather and extreme events, as well as changing societal demands for infrastructure services). For their current and future projects, engineers should: Involve all stakeholders (owners, financers, insurance, regulators, affected public, climate/weather scientists, etc.) in key decisions; Use low regret, adaptive strategies, such as robust decision making and the observational method, comply with relevant standards and regulations, and exceed their requirements where appropriate; Publish design studies and performance/failure investigations to extend the body of knowledge for advancement of practice. The engineering community should conduct observational and modeling research with climate/weather/social scientists and the concerned communities and account rationally for climate change in revised engineering standards and codes. This presentation presents initial research on decisionmaking under uncertainty for climate resilient infrastructure design.

Local-scale changes in mean and heavy precipitation in Western Europe, climate change or internal variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aalbers, Emma E.; Lenderink, Geert; van Meijgaard, Erik; van den Hurk, Bart J. J. M.

2017-09-01

High-resolution climate information provided by e.g. regional climate models (RCMs) is valuable for exploring the changing weather under global warming, and assessing the local impact of climate change. While there is generally more confidence in the representativeness of simulated processes at higher resolutions, internal variability of the climate system—`noise', intrinsic to the chaotic nature of atmospheric and oceanic processes—is larger at smaller spatial scales as well, limiting the predictability of the climate signal. To quantify the internal variability and robustly estimate the climate signal, large initial-condition ensembles of climate simulations conducted with a single model provide essential information. We analyze a regional downscaling of a 16-member initial-condition ensemble over western Europe and the Alps at 0.11° resolution, similar to the highest resolution EURO-CORDEX simulations. We examine the strength of the forced climate response (signal) in mean and extreme daily precipitation with respect to noise due to internal variability, and find robust small-scale geographical features in the forced response, indicating regional differences in changes in the probability of events. However, individual ensemble members provide only limited information on the forced climate response, even for high levels of global warming. Although the results are based on a single RCM-GCM chain, we believe that they have general value in providing insight in the fraction of the uncertainty in high-resolution climate information that is irreducible, and can assist in the correct interpretation of fine-scale information in multi-model ensembles in terms of a forced response and noise due to internal variability.

Catchment Water-Energy Balance Model: Development and Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, D.; Yang, H.

2017-12-01

International Hydrological community has widely recognized that the catchment water-energy balance exists, which can be expressed as a general form of E/P = f(E0/P, c), where P is precipitation, E0 is potential evaporation, and c is a parameter. Many empirical/rational formulations of the catchment water-energy balance have been proposed. Several analytical solutions of the water-energy balance equation E/P = f(E0/P, c) have been derived by using dimensional analysis and mathematic reasoning and introducing additional boundary conditions. This paper will summarize the catchment water-energy balance equations and discuss their advantages and limitations. Catchment hydrology has been greatly influenced by the intensive variability in land use/cover, precipitation and air temperature due to climate change and local human activities. The water-energy balance equation, which are usually called the Budyko framework is widely used to analyze the impacts of climate and landscape changes on regional hydrology especially the annual runoff change. In order to quantify impacts of climate change and landscape change on the catchment runoff, the climate elasticity and landscape elasticity are estimated theoretically from the catchment water-energy balance equation. The elasticity of runoff has less of a dependency on the aridity index when the climate is drier (larger aridity index). The precipitation elasticity of runoff was close to 1.0 and that of potential evaporation close to 0.0 in the extreme humid climate with no relation to the landscape conditions, which implies that catchment water balance under extremely wet condition is controlled mainly by the climate condition. We establishes a relationship between the change in the landscape parameter in the catchment water-energy balance equation and vegetation change represented by fPAR, the fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation. The fPAR elasticity of runoff is introduced and estimated over China, which indicate that runoff is more sensitive to the change in fPAR in relatively dry catchments. This paper will summarize applications of the water-energy balance equation and discuss on the future development.

Enhanced marine productivity off western North America during warm climate intervals of the past 52 k.y

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ortiz, J.D.; O'Connell, S. B.; DelViscio, J.; Dean, W.; Carriquiry, J.D.; Marchitto, T.; Zheng, Yen; VanGeen, A.

2004-01-01

Studies of the Santa Barbara Basin off the coast of California have linked changes in its bottom-water oxygen content to millennial-scale climate changes as recorded by the oxygen isotope composition of Greenland ice. Through the use of detailed records from a sediment core collected off the Magdalena Margin of Baja California, Mexico, we demonstrate that this teleconnection predominantly arose from changes in marine productivity, rather than changes in ventilation of the North Pacific, as was originally proposed. One possible interpretation is that the modern balance of El Nin??o-La Nin??a conditions that favors a shallow nutricline and high productivity today and during warm climate intervals of the past 52 k.y. was altered toward more frequent, deep nutricline, low productivity, El Nin??o-like conditions during cool climate intervals. ?? 2004 Geological Society of America.

The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Martin, V; Chevalier, V; Ceccato, P; Anyamba, A; De Simone, L; Lubroth, J; de La Rocque, S; Domenech, J

2008-08-01

Climate change is likely to change the frequency of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and hurricanes, and may destabilise and weaken the ecosystem services upon which human society depends. Climate change is also expected to affect animal, human and plant health via indirect pathways: it is likely that the geography of infectious diseases and pests will be altered, including the distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, malaria and dengue, which are highly sensitive to climatic conditions. Extreme weather events might then create the necessary conditions for Rift Valley fever to expand its geographical range northwards and cross the Mediterranean and Arabian seas, with an unexpected impact on the animal and human health of newly affected countries. Strengthening global, regional and national early warning systems is crucial, as are co-ordinated research programmes and subsequent prevention and intervention measures.

Analytically based forward and inverse models of fluvial landscape evolution during temporally continuous climatic and tectonic variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goren, Liran; Petit, Carole

2017-04-01

Fluvial channels respond to changing tectonic and climatic conditions by adjusting their patterns of erosion and relief. It is therefore expected that by examining these patterns, we can infer the tectonic and climatic conditions that shaped the channels. However, the potential interference between climatic and tectonic signals complicates this inference. Within the framework of the stream power model that describes incision rate of mountainous bedrock rivers, climate variability has two effects: it influences the erosive power of the river, causing local slope change, and it changes the fluvial response time that controls the rate at which tectonically and climatically induced slope breaks are communicated upstream. Because of this dual role, the fluvial response time during continuous climate change has so far been elusive, which hinders our understanding of environmental signal propagation and preservation in the fluvial topography. An analytic solution of the stream power model during general tectonic and climatic histories gives rise to a new definition of the fluvial response time. The analytic solution offers accurate predictions for landscape evolution that are hard to achieve with classical numerical schemes and thus can be used to validate and evaluate the accuracy of numerical landscape evolution models. The analytic solution together with the new definition of the fluvial response time allow inferring either the tectonic history or the climatic history from river long profiles by using simple linear inversion schemes. Analytic study of landscape evolution during periodic climate change reveals that high frequency (10-100 kyr) climatic oscillations with respect to the response time, such as Milankovitch cycles, are not expected to leave significant fingerprints in the upstream reaches of fluvial channels. Linear inversion schemes are applied to the Tinee river tributaries in the southern French Alps, where tributary long profiles are used to recover the incision rate history of the Tinee main trunk. Inversion results show periodic, high incision rate pulses, which are correlated with interglacial episodes. Similar incision rate histories are recovered for the past 100 kyr when assuming constant climatic conditions or periodic climatic oscillations, in agreement with theoretical predictions.

Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

Treesearch

Eric J. Gustafson; Douglas J. Shinneman

2015-01-01

Global changes, including climate change, are rapidly creating new environmental conditions and stressors for forests around the world. Climate change may have modest direct effects, at least initially, but indirect effects and interactions with disturbances can produce important changes in forest composition and landscape pattern (Dale et al. 2001; Gustafson et al....

Current adaptation measures and policies

Treesearch

Geoff Roberts; John A. Parrotta; Anita Wreford

2009-01-01

As stated in earlier chapters, the possible impacts of climate change on forests and the forest sector are considerable, and many impacts have already been observed. As forest conditions change, there is an inherent need to change management and policy measures to minimise negative impacts and to exploit the benefits derived from climate change. This chapter highlights...

Forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment and synthesis for northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan: a report from the Northwoods Climate Change Response Framework project

Treesearch

Maria K. Janowiak; Louis R. Iverson; David J. Mladenoff; Emily Peters; Kirk R. Wythers; Weimin Xi; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Stephen D. Handler; P. Danielle Shannon; Chris Swanston; Linda R. Parker; Amy J. Amman; Brian Bogaczyk; Christine Handler; Ellen Lesch; Peter B. Reich; Stephen Matthews; Matthew Peters; Anantha Prasad; Sami Khanal; Feng Liu; Tara Bal; Dustin Bronson; Andrew Burton; Jim Ferris; Jon Fosgitt; Shawn Hagan; Erin Johnston; Evan Kane; Colleen Matula; Ryan O' Connor; Dale Higgins; Matt St. Pierre; Jad Daley; Mae Davenport; Marla R. Emery; David Fehringer; Christopher L. Hoving; Gary Johnson; David Neitzel; Michael Notaro; Adena Rissman; Chadwick Rittenhouse; Robert Ziel

2014-01-01

Forest ecosystems across the Northwoods will face direct and indirect impacts from a changing climate over the 21st century. This assessment evaluates the vulnerability of forest ecosystems in the Laurentian Mixed Forest Province of northern Wisconsin and western Upper Michigan under a range of future climates. Information on current forest conditions, observed climate...

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change.

PubMed

Descombes, Patrice; Wisz, Mary S; Leprieur, Fabien; Parravicini, Valerianio; Heine, Christian; Olsen, Steffen M; Swingedouw, Didier; Kulbicki, Michel; Mouillot, David; Pellissier, Loïc

2015-01-21

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Household perceptions of coastal hazards and climate change in the Central Philippines.

PubMed

Combest-Friedman, Chelsea; Christie, Patrick; Miles, Edward

2012-12-15

As a tropical archipelagic nation, the Philippines is particularly susceptible to coastal hazards, which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. To improve coastal hazard management and adaptation planning, it is imperative that climate information be provided at relevant scales and that decision-makers understand the causes and nature of risk in their constituencies. Focusing on a municipality in the Central Philippines, this study examines local meteorological information and explores household perceptions of climate change and coastal hazard risk. First, meteorological data and local perceptions of changing climate conditions are assessed. Perceived changes in climate include an increase in rainfall and rainfall variability, an increase in intensity and frequency of storm events and sea level rise. Second, factors affecting climate change perceptions and perceived risk from coastal hazards are determined through statistical analysis. Factors tested include social status, economic standing, resource dependency and spatial location. Results indicate that perceived risk to coastal hazards is most affected by households' spatial location and resource dependency, rather than socio-economic conditions. However, important differences exist based on the type of hazard and nature of risk being measured. Resource dependency variables are more significant in determining perceived risk from coastal erosion and sea level rise than flood events. Spatial location is most significant in determining households' perceived risk to their household assets, but not perceived risk to their livelihood. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Northward shift of the agricultural climate zone under 21st-century global climate change.

PubMed

King, Myron; Altdorff, Daniel; Li, Pengfei; Galagedara, Lakshman; Holden, Joseph; Unc, Adrian

2018-05-21

As agricultural regions are threatened by climate change, warming of high latitude regions and increasing food demands may lead to northward expansion of global agriculture. While socio-economic demands and edaphic conditions may govern the expansion, climate is a key limiting factor. Extant literature on future crop projections considers established agricultural regions and is mainly temperature based. We employed growing degree days (GDD), as the physiological link between temperature and crop growth, to assess the global northward shift of agricultural climate zones under 21 st -century climate change. Using ClimGen scenarios for seven global climate models (GCMs), based on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and transient GHGs, we delineated the future extent of GDD areas, feasible for small cereals, and assessed the projected changes in rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. By 2099, roughly 76% (55% to 89%) of the boreal region might reach crop feasible GDD conditions, compared to the current 32%. The leading edge of the feasible GDD will shift northwards up to 1200 km by 2099 while the altitudinal shift remains marginal. However, most of the newly gained areas are associated with highly seasonal and monthly variations in climatic water balances, a critical component of any future land-use and management decisions.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Modeling the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty: Interdependencies among the U.S. States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowry, T. S.; Backus, G.; Warren, D.

2010-12-01

Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

PubMed

George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

2017-11-01

Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project - Phase 2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haywood, Alan; Dowsett, Harry; Dolan, Aisling; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark; Hunter, Stephen; Lunt, Daniel; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-04-01

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, and their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate, and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilised for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilise state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land/ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

Climate Change Effects: Issues for International and US National Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

impacts such as heat waves, major concerns are significant spreading of conditions for vector-borne diseases, such as dengue fever and malaria, and...U.S. national directives and strategic-level documents, and notable reports on specific climate change impacts or especially vulnerable regions ...add to tensions even in stable world regions . There is greater potential for failed states and political instability. Climate change acts as a

Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.

PubMed

Lee, Yung-Jaan; Tung, Chuan-Ming; Lin, Shih-Chien

2018-02-08

Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.

Extreme weather events and infectious disease outbreaks.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2015-01-01

Human-driven climatic changes will fundamentally influence patterns of human health, including infectious disease clusters and epidemics following extreme weather events. Extreme weather events are projected to increase further with the advance of human-driven climate change. Both recent and historical experiences indicate that infectious disease outbreaks very often follow extreme weather events, as microbes, vectors and reservoir animal hosts exploit the disrupted social and environmental conditions of extreme weather events. This review article examines infectious disease risks associated with extreme weather events; it draws on recent experiences including Hurricane Katrina in 2005 and the 2010 Pakistan mega-floods, and historical examples from previous centuries of epidemics and 'pestilence' associated with extreme weather disasters and climatic changes. A fuller understanding of climatic change, the precursors and triggers of extreme weather events and health consequences is needed in order to anticipate and respond to the infectious disease risks associated with human-driven climate change. Post-event risks to human health can be constrained, nonetheless, by reducing background rates of persistent infection, preparatory action such as coordinated disease surveillance and vaccination coverage, and strengthened disaster response. In the face of changing climate and weather conditions, it is critically important to think in ecological terms about the determinants of health, disease and death in human populations.

Climate Ocean Modeling on Parallel Computers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, P.; Cheng, B. N.; Chao, Y.

1998-01-01

Ocean modeling plays an important role in both understanding the current climatic conditions and predicting future climate change. However, modeling the ocean circulation at various spatial and temporal scales is a very challenging computational task.

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

2015-01-01

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

Vegetation dynamics of the Guatemalan lowlands from MIS7 to MIS5: Evidence from Lake Petén-Itzá

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cruz-Silva, E.; Correa-Metrio, A.; Bush, M. B.

2013-05-01

Reconstructing vegetation patterns of past warm climatic stages is critical for understanding modern processes that affect diversity and climate. Tropical lowlands are of special interest because of the high biodiversity they foster and the risks they face under a scenario of rapid climate change. With a basal age of more that 191,000 years, core PI-1 from Lake Petén-Itzá, Guatemalan lowlands, offer an exceptional opportunity to investigate the dynamics of the vegetation of the area during climatic stages that might be analogous to today. Pollen analysis of the lower part of this sedimentary record shows a sequence of five different climatic stages of alternating warm and cold conditions. According to our interpretation, tropical forests extended in the area during MIS7 and MIS5, with the former characterized by drier conditions than the latter. Apparently forest dynamics closely followed global climatic changes that were recorded in the Antarctic and the Marine Stack records. Our results confirm that vegetation of the Peninsula, although highly resilient, has been very sensitive to global climatic changes.

Landscape Hazards in Yukon Communities: Geological Mapping for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, K.; Kinnear, L.

2010-12-01

Climate change is considered to be a significant challenge for northern communities where the effects of increased temperature and climate variability are beginning to affect infrastructure and livelihoods (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, 2004). Planning for and adapting to ongoing and future changes in climate will require the identification and characterization of social, economic, cultural, political and biophysical vulnerabilities. This pilot project addresses physical landscape vulnerabilities in two communities in the Yukon Territory through community-scale landscape hazard mapping and focused investigations of community permafrost conditions. Landscape hazards are identified by combining pre-existing data from public utilities and private-sector consultants with new geophysical techniques (ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity), shallow drilling, surficial geological mapping, and permafrost characterization. Existing landscape vulnerabilities are evaluated based on their potential for hazard (low, medium or high) under current climate conditions, as well as under future climate scenarios. Detailed hazard maps and landscape characterizations for both communities will contribute to overall adaptation plans and allow for informed development, planning and mitigation of potentially threatening hazards in and around the communities.

Projected impact of climate change in the hydroclimatology of Senegal with a focus over the Lake of Guiers for the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tall, Moustapha; Sylla, Mouhamadou Bamba; Diallo, Ismaïla; Pal, Jeremy S.; Faye, Aïssatou; Mbaye, Mamadou Lamine; Gaye, Amadou Thierno

2017-07-01

This study analyzes the impact of anthropogenic climate change in the hydroclimatology of Senegal with a focus over the lake of Guiers basin for the middle (2041-2060) and late twenty-first century (2080-2099). To this end, high-resolution multimodel ensemble based on regional climate model experiments considering two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is used. The results indicate that an elevated warming, leading to substantial increase of atmospheric water demand, is projected over the whole of Senegal. In the Lake basin, these increases in potential evapotranspiration (PE) range between 10 and 25 % in the near future and for RCP4.5 while for the far future and RCP8.5, they exceed 50 %. In addition, mean precipitation unveils contrasting changes with wetter (10 to 25 % more) conditions by the middle of the century and drier conditions (more than 50 %) during the late twenty-first century. Such changes cause more/less evapotranspiration and soil moisture respectively during the two future periods. Furthermore, surface runoff shows a tendency to increase in most areas amid few locations including the Lake basin with substantial reduction. Finally, it is found that while semi-arid climates develop in the RCP4.5 scenario, generalized arid conditions prevail over the whole Senegal for RCP8.5. It is thus evident that these future climate conditions substantially threaten freshwater availability for the country and irrigated cropping over the Lake basin. Therefore, strong governmental politics are needed to help design response options to cope with the challenges posed by the projected climate change for the country.

How do Changes in Hydro-Climate Conditions Alter the Risk of Infection With Fasciolosis?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

2017-12-01

Fasciolosis is a widespread parasitic disease of livestock and is emerging as a major zoonosis. Since the parasite and its intermediate host live and develop in the environment, risk of infection is directly affected by climatic-environmental conditions. Changes in disease prevalence, seasonality and distribution have been reported in recent years and attributed to altered temperature and rainfall patterns, raising concerns about the effects of climate change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to understand how changes in climate-environmental drivers may alter the dynamics of disease risk in a quantitative way, to guide parasite control strategies and interventions in the coming decades. In a previous work, we developed and tested a novel mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Fasciolosis, which explicitly represents the parasite life-cycle in connection with key environmental processes, allowing to capture the impact of previously unseen conditions. In this study, we use the new mechanistic model to assess the sensitivity of infection rates to changes in climate-environmental factors. This is challenging as processes underlying disease transmission are complex and interacting, and may have contrasting effects on the parasite life-cycle stages. To this end, we set up a sensitivity analysis framework to investigate in a structured way which factors play a key role in controlling the magnitude, timing and spread of infection, and how the sensitivity of disease risk varies in time and space. Moreover, we define synthetic scenarios to explore the space of possible variability of the hydro-climate drivers and investigate conditions that lead to critical levels of infection. The study shows how the new model combined with the sensitivity analysis framework can support decision-making, providing useful information for disease management.

Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

2013-01-01

Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

Genetics of climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Franks, Steven J; Hoffmann, Ary A

2012-01-01

The rapid rate of current global climate change is having strong effects on many species and, at least in some cases, is driving evolution, particularly when changes in conditions alter patterns of selection. Climate change thus provides an opportunity for the study of the genetic basis of adaptation. Such studies include a variety of observational and experimental approaches, such as sampling across clines, artificial evolution experiments, and resurrection studies. These approaches can be combined with a number of techniques in genetics and genomics, including association and mapping analyses, genome scans, and transcription profiling. Recent research has revealed a number of candidate genes potentially involved in climate change adaptation and has also illustrated that genetic regulatory networks and epigenetic effects may be particularly relevant for evolution driven by climate change. Although genetic and genomic data are rapidly accumulating, we still have much to learn about the genetic architecture of climate change adaptation.

Correlations between El Niño Southern Oscillation and changes in Nearctic-Neotropic migrant condition in Central America

Treesearch

J.D. Wolfe; C.J. Ralph

2009-01-01

Climatic changes induced by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) commonly influence biological systems; however, climatic variability and multitrophic interactions within tropical latitudes remain poorly understood. We examined relationships between migrant condition and ENSO during spring migration in Costa Rica. Our study is based on correlating an ENSO index with...

Impact of the climate change on the performance of the steam and gas turbines in Russia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fedotova (Kasilova, E. V.; Klimenko, V. V.; Klimenko, A. V.; Tereshin, A. G.

2017-11-01

The power generating industry is known to be vulnerable to the climate change due to the deteriorating efficiency of the power equipment. Effects for Russia are not completely understood yet. But they are already detected and will be more pronounced during the entire current century, as the Russian territory is one of the areas around the world where the climate change is developing most rapidly. An original climate model was applied to simulate the change of the air temperature across Russia for the twenty-first century. The results of the climate simulations were used to conduct impact analysis for the steam and gas turbine performance taking into account seasonal and spatial heterogeneity of the climate change across the Russian territory. Sensitivity of the turbines to the climatic conditions was simulated using both results of fundamental heat transfer research and empirical performance curves for the units being in operation nowadays. The integral effect of the climate change on the power generating industry was estimated. Some possible challenges and opportunities resulted from the climate change were identified.

Health and vitality assessment of two common pine species in the context of climate change in southern Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sicard, Pierre, E-mail: pierre.sicard@acri-st.fr; Dalstein-Richier, Laurence

The Mediterranean Basin is expected to be more strongly affected by ongoing climate change than most other regions of the earth. The South-eastern France can be considered as case study for assessing global change impacts on forests. Based on non-parametric statistical tests, the climatic parameters (temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, global radiation) and forest-response indicators (crown defoliation, discoloration and visible foliar ozone injury) of two pine species (Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra) were analyzed. In the last 20 years, the trend analyses reveal a clear hotter and drier climate along the coastline and slightly rainier inland. In the current climate changemore » context, a reduction in ground-level ozone (O{sub 3}) was found at remote sites and the visible foliar O{sub 3} injury decreased while deterioration of the crown conditions was observed likely due to a drier and warmer climate. Clearly, if such climatic and ecological changes are now being detected when the climate, in South-eastern France, has warmed in the last 20 years (+0.46–1.08 °C), it can be expected that many more impacts on tree species will occur in response to predicted temperature changes by 2100 (+1.95–4.59 °C). Climate change is projected to reduce the benefits of O{sub 3} precursor emissions controls leading to a higher O{sub 3} uptake. However, the drier and warmer climate should induce a soil drought leading to a lower O{sub 3} uptake. These two effects, acting together in an opposite way, could mitigate the harmful impacts of O{sub 3} on forests. The development of coordinated emission abatement strategies is useful to reduce both climate change and O{sub 3} pollution. Climate change will create additional challenges for forest management with substantial socio-economic and biological diversity impacts. However, the development of future sustainable and adaptive forest management strategies has the potential to reduce the vulnerability of forest species to climate change. - Highlights: • We assess climate change impacts on forests: South-eastern France as case study in the last 20 years. • We detect and estimate trends for O{sub 3} concentrations, climatic parameters and visible injury. • We establish a state-of-the-art of the health of 2 common pine species in a context of climate change. • We use two valuable bio-indicator species for O{sub 3} stress: Pinus halepensis and Pinus cembra. • Deterioration of crown conditions: climate change creates additional challenges for forest.« less

Effects of climate change and wildfire on stream temperatures and salmonid thermal habitat in a mountain river network

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Charles H. Luce; Bruce E. Rieman; David E. Nagel; Erin E. Peterson; Dona L. Horan; Sharon Parkes; Gwynne L. Chandler

2010-01-01

Mountain streams provide important habitats for many species, but their faunas are especially vulnerable to climate change because of ectothermic physiologies and movements that are constrained to linear networks that are easily fragmented. Effectively conserving biodiversity in these systems requires accurate downscaling of climatic trends to local habitat conditions...

Climate change and watershed mercury export in a Coastal Plain watershed

Treesearch

Heather Golden; Christopher D. Knightes; Paul A. Conrads; Toby D. Feaster; Gary M. Davis; Stephen T. Benedict; Paul M. Bradley

2016-01-01

Future changes in climatic conditions may affect variations in watershed processes (e.g., hydrological, biogeochemical) and surface water quality across a wide range of physiographic provinces, ecosystems, and spatial scales. How such climatic shifts will impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and hydrologically-driven Hg transport is a significant concern.

Effects of climate change on rangeland vegetation in the northern Rockies [Chapter 6

Treesearch

Matt C. Reeves; Mary E. Manning; Jeff P. DiBenedetto; Kyle A. Palmquist; William K. Lauenroth; John B. Bradford; Daniel R. Schlaepfer

2017-01-01

A longer growing season with climate change is expected to increase net primary productivity of many rangeland types, especially those dominated by grasses, although responses will depend on local climate and soil conditions. Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide may increase water use efficiency and productivity of some species. In many cases, increasing wildfire...

Role of genetics in adapting forests under climate change: lessons learned from common garden experiments in central Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chakraborty, Debojyoti; Schueler, Silvio

2017-04-01

Adaptive management aiming at reducing vulnerability and enhancing the resilience of forested ecosystems is a key to preserving the potential of forests to provide multiple ecosystem services under climate change. Planting alternative or non native tree species adapted to future conditions and also utilizing the genetic variation within tree species has also been suggested as an important adaptive management strategy under climate change. Therefore, knowledge on suitable provenances/populations is a key issue. Provenance trial experiments, where several populations of a species are planted in a particular climate or throughout an appropriate climatic gradient offers a great opportunity to understand adaptive genetic variation within a tree species. These trials were primarily established, for identifying populations with desired growth and fitness characteristics. Due to the increasing interest in climate change, such trials were revisited to understand the relation between growth performance and climate and to recommend suitable populations for future conditions. Here we present the lessons learned from provenance trials of Norway spruce and Douglas -fir in central Europe. With data from provenance trials planted across a wide range of environmental conditions in central Europe we developed multivariate models, Universal Response Functions (URFs). The URFs predict growth performance as a function of climate of planting locations (i.e. environmental factors) and provenance/ population origin (i.e. genetic factors). The flexibility of the URFs as a decision making tool is remarkable. The model can be used as to identify suitable planting material for a give site, and vice versa and also as a species distribution model (SDM) with integrated genetic variation. Under current and climate change scenarios, the URFs were applied to predict populations with higher growth performance in central Europe and also as species distribution models for Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii [Mirbel] Franco) and Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst). For both Douglas-fir and Norway spruce wide variation in growth performance were detected. Populations of Douglas-fir identified by the URFs to be optimum for central Europe current climate and climate change scenarios originate from western Cascades and coastal areas of British Columbia, Washington and Oregon. The current seed stands of Douglas-fir in North America, providing planting materials for Central Europe under the legal framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) were found to be suitable for under future conditions. In case of Norway spruce provenances originating from warm and drier regions of south east Europe were found to be suitable for central Europe under future conditions. Even though calibrated with data from Central Europe, when applied as SDMs, the URFs predicted the observed occurrence of Douglas-fir in its native range in North America with reasonable accuracy compared to contemporary SDMs developed in North America. For both Douglas-fir and Norway spruce significant variation in habitat suitability was found depending on the planted population or seed source indicating the role of intraspecific variation in buffering effects of climate change.

Changes in climate suitability for tourism at Adriatic coast since 1961

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaninovic, Ksenija

2017-04-01

The aim of the paper is the comparison of suitability of climate conditions for tourism at the eastern Adriatic coast in the period 1961-2015. For quantitative estimation of suitability of climate for different kinds of tourism, climate index for tourism (CIT) is used. CIT integrates thermal, aesthetic and physical facets of atmospheric environment and therefore is suitable for estimation of climate satisfaction that ranges from very poor to very good. The thermal component is estimated using the physiologically equivalent temperature (PET). The index is applied for: beach tourism, cycling, hiking, cultural tourism, golf, football, motor boating and sailing. Changes in climate potential of tourism are estimated by differences of distribution of climate index for tourism. For the warmest part of the day, the results indicate the extension of the summer tourist season for beach tourism at the end of the analyzed period. On the other hand, for other tourist activities in the same period the results indicate more pronounced bimodal distribution of CIT during year, resulting with the seasonality shift of ideal conditions for most activities to spring and autumn. Besides, in the morning the improvement of favourable climate conditions for all types of tourism at the end of the period.

Climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selmeczi, Pál; Homolya, Emese; Rotárné Szalkai, Ágnes

2016-04-01

Extreme weather conditions in Hungary led to difficulties in drinking water management on diverse occasions in the past. Due to reduced water resources and the coexisting high demand for drinking water in dry summer periods the availability of a number of water supplies became insufficient therefore causing limitations in water access. In some other cases, as a result of floods and flash floods over karstic areas evolving in consequence of excessive precipitation, several water supplies had to be excluded in order to avoid the risk of infections. More frequent occurrence of extreme weather conditions and further possible changes in the future induce the necessity for an analysis of the vulnerability of drinking water resources to climate change. Since 95% of the total drinking water supply in Hungary originates from subsurface layers, significance of groundwater resources is outstanding. The aim of our work carried out in the frames of the NAGiS (National Adaptation Geo-information System) project was to build up a methodology for the study and determination of the vulnerability of drinking water supplies to climate. The task covered analyses of climatic parameters influencing drinking water supplies principally and hydrogeological characteristics of the geological media that significantly determines vulnerability. Effects on drinking water resources and their reduction or exclusion may imply societal and economic consequences therefore we extended the analyses to the investigation of possibilities concerning the adaptation capacity to changed conditions. We applied the CIVAS (Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Scheme) model developed in the frames of the international climate research project CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe) to characterize climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies. The CIVAS model, being based on the combined evaluation of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, provides a unified methodical scheme to quantitative climatic impact assessment. We investigate the effects of climate change in the integrated context of exposure, sensitivity, impact, adaptive capacity and vulnerability, thus apart from the expected environmental changes societal and economic processes are also taken into account. Climate vulnerability has been determined on the basis of the distribution and categorisation of the chosen indicators. Further effects, independent of climate change and caused by anthropogenic activity, result in similar phenomena. It is often difficult to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic effects that occur simultaneously therefore in the analyses of vulnerability anthropogenic activity is needed to be taken into account. We determined climate vulnerability using data of two different climate models and for two separate future time periods. Results on the basis of both climate model projections suggest that a considerable number of regions in the area under investigation appear to be vulnerable to climate change to a certain extent and vulnerability intensifies to the end of the 21th century.

Populations of concern: Chapter 9

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gamble, Janet; Balbus, John; Berger, Martha; Bouye, Karen; Campbell, Vince; Chief, Karletta; Conlon, K.; Crimmins, Allison; Flanagan, Barry; Gonzalez-Maddux, C.; Hallisey, E.; Hutchins, S.; Jantarasami, L.; Khoury, S.; Kiefer, M.; Kolling, J.; Lynn, K.; Manangan, A.; McDonald, M.; Morello-Frosch, R.; Hiza, Margaret; Sheffield, P.; Thigpen Tart, K.; Watson, J.; Whyte, K.P.; Wolkin, A.F.

2016-01-01

Climate change is already causing, and is expected to continue to cause, a range of health impacts that vary across different population groups in the United States. The vulnerability of any given group is a function of its sensitivity to climate change related health risks, its exposure to those risks, and its capacity for responding to or coping with climate variability and change. Vulnerable groups of people, described here as populations of concern, include those with low income, some communities of color, immigrant groups (including those with limited English proficiency), Indigenous peoples, children and pregnant women, older adults, vulnerable occupational groups, persons with disabilities, and persons with preexisting or chronic medical conditions. Planners and public health officials, politicians and physicians, scientists and social service providers are tasked with understanding and responding to the health impacts of climate change. Collectively, their characterization of vulnerability should consider how populations of concern experience disproportionate, multiple, and complex risks to their health and well-being in response to climate change. Some groups face a number of stressors related to both climate and non-climate factors. For example, people living in impoverished urban or isolated rural areas, floodplains, coastlines, and other at-risk locations are more vulnerable not only to extreme weather and persistent climate change but also to social and economic stressors. Many of these stressors can occur simultaneously or consecutively. Over time, this “accumulation” of multiple, complex stressors is expected to become more evident1 as climate impacts interact with stressors associated with existing mental and physical health conditions and with other socioeconomic and demographic factors.

Impact of the Little Ice Age cooling and 20th century climate change on peatland vegetation dynamics in central and northern Alberta using a multi-proxy approach and high-resolution peat chronologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnan, Gabriel; van Bellen, Simon; Davies, Lauren; Froese, Duane; Garneau, Michelle; Mullan-Boudreau, Gillian; Zaccone, Claudio; Shotyk, William

2018-04-01

Northern boreal peatlands are major terrestrial sinks of organic carbon and these ecosystems, which are highly sensitive to human activities and climate change, act as sensitive archives of past environmental change at various timescales. This study aims at understanding how the climate changes of the last 1000 years have affected peatland vegetation dynamics in the boreal region of Alberta in western Canada. Peat cores were collected from five bogs in the Fort McMurray region (56-57° N), at the southern limit of sporadic permafrost, and two in central Alberta (53° N and 55° N) outside the present-day limit of permafrost peatlands. The past changes in vegetation communities were reconstructed using detailed plant macrofossil analyses combined with high-resolution peat chronologies (14C, atmospheric bomb-pulse 14C, 210Pb and cryptotephras). Peat humification proxies (C/N, H/C, bulk density) and records of pH and ash content were also used to improve the interpretation of climate-related vegetation changes. Our study shows important changes in peatland vegetation and physical and chemical peat properties during the Little Ice Age (LIA) cooling period mainly from around 1700 CE and the subsequent climate warming of the 20th century. In some bogs, the plant macrofossils have recorded periods of permafrost aggradation during the LIA with drier surface conditions, increased peat humification and high abundance of ericaceous shrubs and black spruce (Picea mariana). The subsequent permafrost thaw was characterized by a short-term shift towards wetter conditions (Sphagnum sect. Cuspidata) and a decline in Picea mariana. Finally, a shift to a dominance of Sphagnum sect. Acutifolia (mainly Sphagnum fuscum) occurred in all the bogs during the second half of the 20th century, indicating the establishment of dry ombrotrophic conditions under the recent warmer and drier climate conditions.

Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan.

PubMed

Awais, Muhammad; Wajid, Aftab; Saleem, Muhammad Farrukh; Nasim, Wajid; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Raza, Muhammad Aown Sammar; Bashir, Muhammad Usman; Mubeen, Muhammad; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Habib Ur Rahman, Muhammad; Saeed, Umer; Arshad, Muhammad Naveed; Hussain, Jamshad

2018-05-01

Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop's yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO 2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO 2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO 2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha -1 ) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.

Organismal responses to habitat change: herbivore performance, climate and leaf traits in regenerating tropical dry forests.

PubMed

Agosta, Salvatore J; Hulshof, Catherine M; Staats, Ethan G

2017-05-01

The ecological effects of large-scale climate change have received much attention, but the effects of the more acute form of climate change that results from local habitat alteration have been less explored. When forest is fragmented, cut, thinned, cleared or otherwise altered in structure, local climates and microclimates change. Such changes can affect herbivores both directly (e.g. through changes in body temperature) and indirectly (e.g. through changes in host plant traits). We advance an eco-physiological framework to understand the effects of changing forests on herbivorous insects. We hypothesize that if tropical forest caterpillars are climate and resource specialists, then they should have reduced performance outside of mature forest conditions. We tested this hypothesis with a field experiment contrasting the performance of Rothschildia lebeau (Saturniidae) caterpillars feeding on the host plant Casearia nitida (Salicaceae) in two different aged and structured tropical dry forests in Area de Conservación Guanacaste, Costa Rica. Compared to more mature closed-canopy forest, in younger secondary forest we found that: (1) ambient conditions were hotter, drier and more variable; (2) caterpillar growth and development were reduced; and (3) leaves were tougher, thicker and drier. Furthermore, caterpillar growth and survival were negatively correlated with these leaf traits, suggesting indirect host-mediated effects of climate on herbivores. Based on the available evidence, and relative to mature forest, we conclude that reduced herbivore performance in young secondary forest could have been driven by changes in climate, leaf traits (which were likely climate induced) or both. However, additional studies will be needed to provide more direct evidence of cause-and-effect and to disentangle the relative influence of these factors on herbivore performance in this system. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China.

PubMed

Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

2016-10-07

Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide.

A probabilistic assessment of the likelihood of vegetation drought under varying climate conditions across China

PubMed Central

Liu, Zhiyong; Li, Chao; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Xiuzhi

2016-01-01

Climate change significantly impacts the vegetation growth and terrestrial ecosystems. Using satellite remote sensing observations, here we focus on investigating vegetation dynamics and the likelihood of vegetation-related drought under varying climate conditions across China. We first compare temporal trends of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and climatic variables over China. We find that in fact there is no significant change in vegetation over the cold regions where warming is significant. Then, we propose a joint probability model to estimate the likelihood of vegetation-related drought conditioned on different precipitation/temperature scenarios in growing season across China. To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to examine the vegetation-related drought risk over China from a perspective based on joint probability. Our results demonstrate risk patterns of vegetation-related drought under both low and high precipitation/temperature conditions. We further identify the variations in vegetation-related drought risk under different climate conditions and the sensitivity of drought risk to climate variability. These findings provide insights for decision makers to evaluate drought risk and vegetation-related develop drought mitigation strategies over China in a warming world. The proposed methodology also has a great potential to be applied for vegetation-related drought risk assessment in other regions worldwide. PMID:27713530

Comparing approaches for using climate projections in assessing water resources investments for systems with multiple stakeholder groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurford, Anthony; Harou, Julien

2015-04-01

Climate change has challenged conventional methods of planning water resources infrastructure investment, relying on stationarity of time-series data. It is not clear how to best use projections of future climatic conditions. Many-objective simulation-optimisation and trade-off analysis using evolutionary algorithms has been proposed as an approach to addressing complex planning problems with multiple conflicting objectives. The search for promising assets and policies can be carried out across a range of climate projections, to identify the configurations of infrastructure investment shown by model simulation to be robust under diverse future conditions. Climate projections can be used in different ways within a simulation model to represent the range of possible future conditions and understand how optimal investments vary according to the different hydrological conditions. We compare two approaches, optimising over an ensemble of different 20-year flow and PET timeseries projections, and separately for individual future scenarios built synthetically from the original ensemble. Comparing trade-off curves and surfaces generated by the two approaches helps understand the limits and benefits of optimising under different sets of conditions. The comparison is made for the Tana Basin in Kenya, where climate change combined with multiple conflicting objectives of water management and infrastructure investment mean decision-making is particularly challenging.

Range-wide reproductive consequences of ocean climate variability for the seabird Cassin's Auklet.

PubMed

Wolf, Shaye G; Sydeman, William J; Hipfner, J Mark; Abraham, Christine L; Tershy, Bernie R; Croll, Donald A

2009-03-01

We examine how ocean climate variability influences the reproductive phenology and demography of the seabird Cassin's Auklet (Ptychoramphus aleuticus) across approximately 2500 km of its breeding range in the oceanographically dynamic California Current System along the west coast of North America. Specifically, we determine the extent to which ocean climate conditions and Cassin's Auklet timing of breeding and breeding success covary across populations in British Columbia, central California, and northern Mexico over six years (2000-2005) and test whether auklet timing of breeding and breeding success are similarly related to local and large-scale ocean climate indices across populations. Local ocean foraging environments ranged from seasonally variable, high-productivity environments in the north to aseasonal, low-productivity environments to the south, but covaried similarly due to the synchronizing effects of large-scale climate processes. Auklet timing of breeding in the southern population did not covary with populations to the north and was not significantly related to local oceanographic conditions, in contrast to northern populations, where timing of breeding appears to be influenced by oceanographic cues that signal peaks in prey availability. Annual breeding success covaried similarly across populations and was consistently related to local ocean climate conditions across this system. Overall, local ocean climate indices, particularly sea surface height, better explained timing of breeding and breeding success than a large-scale climate index by better representing heterogeneity in physical processes important to auklets and their prey. The significant, consistent relationships we detected between Cassin's Auklet breeding success and ocean climate conditions across widely spaced populations indicate that Cassin's Auklets are susceptible to climate change across the California Current System, especially by the strengthening of climate processes that synchronize oceanographic conditions. Auklet populations in the northern and central regions of this ecosystem may be more sensitive to changes in the timing and variability of ocean climate conditions since they appear to time breeding to take advantage of seasonal productivity peaks.

Use of NARCCAP data to characterize regional climate uncertainty in the impact of global climate change on large river fish population: Missouri River sturgeon example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, C. J.; Wildhaber, M. L.; Wikle, C. K.; Moran, E. H.; Franz, K. J.; Dey, R.

2012-12-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding the effects of change on ecosystems requires accounting for the propagation of information and uncertainty across these scales. For example, to understand potential climate change effects on fish populations in riverine ecosystems, climate conditions predicted by course-resolution atmosphere-ocean global climate models must first be translated to the regional climate scale. In turn, this regional information is used to force watershed models, which are used to force river condition models, which impact the population response. A critical challenge in such a multiscale modeling environment is to quantify sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and the individual organism. We use a hierarchical modeling approach for accommodating uncertainty in multiscale ecological impact studies. This framework allows for uncertainty due to system models, model parameter settings, and stochastic parameterizations. This approach is a hybrid between physical (deterministic) downscaling and statistical downscaling, recognizing that there is uncertainty in both. We use NARCCAP data to determine confidence the capability of climate models to simulate relevant processes and to quantify regional climate variability within the context of the hierarchical model of uncertainty quantification. By confidence, we mean the ability of the regional climate model to replicate observed mechanisms. We use the NCEP-driven simulations for this analysis. This provides a base from which regional change can be categorized as either a modification of previously observed mechanisms or emergence of new processes. The management implications for these categories of change are significantly different in that procedures to address impacts from existing processes may already be known and need adjustment; whereas, an emergent processes may require new management strategies. The results from hierarchical analysis of uncertainty are used to study the relative change in weights of the endangered Missouri River pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) under a 21st century climate scenario.

The Copernicus programme and its Climate Change Service (C3S): a European answer to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinty, Bernard; Thepaut, Jean-Noel; Dee, Dick

2016-07-01

In November 2014, The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) signed an agreement with the European Commission to deliver two of the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme Services on the Commission's behalf. The ECMWF delivered services - the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) - will bring a consistent standard to how we measure and predict atmospheric conditions and climate change. They will maximise the potential of past, current and future earth observations - ground, ocean, airborne, satellite - and analyse these to monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and in the future, climate change. With the wealth of free and open data that the services provide, they will help business users to assess the impact of their business decisions and make informed choices, delivering a more energy efficient and climate aware economy. These sound investment decisions now will not only stimulate growth in the short term, but reduce the impact of climate change on the economy and society in the future. C3S is in its proof of concept phase and through its climate data store will provide global and regional climate data reanalyses; multi-model seasonal forecasts; customisable visual data to enable examination of wide range of scenarios and model the impact of changes; access to all the underlying data, including climate data records from various satellite and in-situ observations. In addition, C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers (such as carbon dioxide) and impacts (such as reducing glaciers). The aim of these indicators will be to support European adaptation and mitigation policies in a number of economic sectors. The presentation will provide an overview of this newly created Service, its various components and activities, and a roadmap towards achieving a fully operational European Climate Service at the horizon 2019-2020. It will focus on the requirements for quality-assured Observation Gridded Products to establish an operational delivery of a series of gridded long-term Climate Data Records (CDRs) of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), along with associated input data and uncertainty estimation.

Forecasting regional grassland and shrubland responses to directional changes in climate using multi-year dry or wet periods

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Although air temperatures are increasing, the magnitude and direction of change in precipitation (increase or decrease) are uncertain for many sites. Given that water availability is the primary driver...

Forecasting regional grassland and shrubland responses to directional changes in climate using multi-year dry or wet period

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecologists are being challenged to predict ecosystem responses under changing climatic conditions. Although air temperatures are increasing, the magnitude and direction of change in precipitation (increase or decrease) are uncertain for many sites. Given that water availability is the primary driver...

Social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon.

PubMed

Brondízio, Eduardo S; de Lima, Ana C B; Schramski, Sam; Adams, Cristina

2016-07-01

The Amazon region has been part of climate change debates for decades, yet attention to its social and health dimensions has been limited. This paper assesses literature on the social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon. A conceptual framework underscores multiple stresses and exposures created by interactions between climate change and local social-environmental conditions. Using the Thomson-Reuter Web of Science, this study bibliometrically assessed the overall literature on climate change in the Amazon, including Physical Sciences, Social Sciences, Anthropology, Environmental Science/Ecology and Public, Environmental/Occupational Health. From this assessment, a relevant sub-sample was selected and complemented with literature from the Brazilian database SciELO. This sample discusses three dimensions of climate change impacts in the region: livelihood changes, vector-borne diseases and microbial proliferation, and respiratory diseases. This analysis elucidates imbalance and disconnect between ecological, physical and social and health dimensions of climate change and between continental and regional climate analysis, and sub-regional and local levels. Work on the social and health implications of climate change in the Amazon falls significantly behind other research areas, limiting reliable information for analytical models and for Amazonian policy-makers and society at large. Collaborative research is called for.

Protective factors for mental health and well-being in a changing climate: Perspectives from Inuit youth in Nunatsiavut, Labrador.

PubMed

Petrasek MacDonald, Joanna; Cunsolo Willox, Ashlee; Ford, James D; Shiwak, Inez; Wood, Michele

2015-09-01

The Canadian Arctic is experiencing rapid changes in climatic conditions, with implications for Inuit communities widely documented. Youth have been identified as an at-risk population, with likely impacts on mental health and well-being. This study identifies and characterizes youth-specific protective factors that enhance well-being in light of a rapidly changing climate, and examines how climatic and environmental change challenges these. In-depth conversational interviews were conducted with youth aged 15-25 from the five communities of the Nunatsiavut region of Labrador, Canada: Nain, Hopedale, Postville, Makkovik, and Rigolet. Five key protective factors were identified as enhancing their mental health and well-being: being on the land; connecting to Inuit culture; strong communities; relationships with family and friends; and staying busy. Changing sea ice and weather conditions were widely reported to be compromising these protective factors by reducing access to the land, and increasing the danger of land-based activities. This study contributes to existing work on Northern climate change adaptation by identifying factors that enhance youth resilience and, if incorporated into adaptation strategies, may contribute to creating successful and effective adaptation responses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.

2011-01-01

The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr-1 during the last half of the 21st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr-1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr-1 by the end of the 21st century with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO2 concentration will have little contribution to vegetation changes. Simulated NPP shows geographic patterns consistent with temperature to a certain extent, and precipitation is not the limiting factor for forest NPP in the subtropical climate conditions. There is no close relationship between the spatial pattern of NEP and climate condition.

Forecasting carbon budget under climate change and CO 2 fertilization for subtropical region in China using integrated biosphere simulator (IBIS) model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Q.; Jiang, H.; Liu, J.; Peng, C.; Fang, X.; Yu, S.; Zhou, G.; Wei, X.; Ju, W.

2011-01-01

The regional carbon budget of the climatic transition zone may be very sensitive to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. This study simulated the carbon cycles under these changes using process-based ecosystem models. The Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS), a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM), was used to evaluate the impacts of climate change and CO 2 fertilization on net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem production (NEP), and the vegetation structure of terrestrial ecosystems in Zhejiang province (area 101,800 km 2, mainly covered by subtropical evergreen forest and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest) which is located in the subtropical climate area of China. Two general circulation models (HADCM3 and CGCM3) representing four IPCC climate change scenarios (HC3AA, HC3GG, CGCM-sresa2, and CGCM-sresb1) were used as climate inputs for IBIS. Results show that simulated historical biomass and NPP are consistent with field and other modelled data, which makes the analysis of future carbon budget reliable. The results indicate that NPP over the entire Zhejiang province was about 55 Mt C yr -1 during the last half of the 21 st century. An NPP increase of about 24 Mt C by the end of the 21 st century was estimated with the combined effects of increasing CO 2 and climate change. A slight NPP increase of about 5 Mt C was estimated under the climate change alone scenario. Forests in Zhejiang are currently acting as a carbon sink with an average NEP of about 2.5 Mt C yr -1. NEP will increase to about 5 Mt C yr -1 by the end of the 21 st century with the increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentration and climate change. However, climate change alone will reduce the forest carbon sequestration of Zhejiang's forests. Future climate warming will substantially change the vegetation cover types; warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf forest will be gradually substituted by subtropical evergreen forest. An increasing CO 2 concentration will have little contribution to vegetation changes. Simulated NPP shows geographic patterns consistent with temperature to a certain extent, and precipitation is not the limiting factor for forest NPP in the subtropical climate conditions. There is no close relationship between the spatial pattern of NEP and climate condition.

Climate and climate change and infectious disease risk in Thailand: A spatial study of dengue hemorrhagic fever using GIS and remotely-sensed imagery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuzera, Kristopher

The scientific community has widely accepted that climate plays a key role in the sustainability and transmission of many infectious diseases. Global climate change can potentially trigger the spread of disease into new regions and increase the intensity of disease in regions where it is endemic. This study explores the association between monthly conditions of climate change to changes in disease risk, emphasizing the potential spread of dengue fever due to climate change in Thailand. This study also develops techniques new to GIS and remote sensing that generate surfaces of daily minimum temperature toward identifying areas at greater transmission risk. Dengue fever expansion due to global warming is a serious concern for Thailand where warming temperatures may increase the size of the habitat of the disease-spreading vector, Aedes aegypti, particularly during cooler months when transmission is limited by environmental conditions. In this study, first, the association between past dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and climate in Thailand is determined. Second, evidence of recent climate change is related to changes in DHF rates. Third, daily minimum temperature is derived from remote sensing toward identifying the spatial and temporal limitations of potential transmission risk. The results indicate that minimum temperature has recently experienced a rapid increase, particularly in the winter months when transmission is low. This is associated with a recent rise in winter DHF cases. As increasing minimum temperatures in these regions are anticipated to continue, we can expect dengue transmission rates to also increase throughout the year.

Vegetation zones in changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belda, Michal; Holtanova, Eva; Halenka, Tomas; Kalvova, Jaroslava

2017-04-01

Climate patterns analysis can be performed for individual climate variables separately or the data can be aggregated using e.g. some kind of climate classification. These classifications usually correspond to vegetation distribution in the sense that each climate type is dominated by one vegetation zone or eco-region. Thus, the Köppen-Trewartha classification provides integrated assessment of temperature and precipitation together with their annual cycle as well. This way climate classifications also can be used as a convenient tool for the assessment and validation of climate models and for the analysis of simulated future climate changes. The Köppen-Trewartha classification is applied on full CMIP5 family of more than 40 GCM simulations and CRU dataset for comparison. This evaluation provides insight on the GCM performance and errors for simulations of the 20th century climate. Common regions are identified, such as Australia or Amazonia, where many state-of-the-art models perform inadequately. Moreover, the analysis of the CMIP5 ensemble for future under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 is performed to assess the climate change for future. There are significant changes for some types in most models e.g. increase of savanna and decrease of tundra for the future climate. For some types significant shifts in latitude can be seen when studying their geographical location in selected continental areas, e.g. toward higher latitudes for boreal climate. Quite significant uncertainty can be seen for some types. For Europe, EuroCORDEX results for both 0.11 and 0.44 degree resolution are validated using Köppen-Trewartha types in comparison to E-OBS based classification. ERA-Interim driven simulations are compared to both present conditions of CMIP5 models as well as their downscaling by EuroCORDEX RCMs. Finally, the climate change signal assessment is provided using the individual climate types. In addition to the changes assessed similarly as for GCMs analysis in terms of the area of individual types, in the continental scale some shifts of boundaries between the selected types can be studied as well providing the information on climate change signal. The shift of the boundary between the boreal zone and continental temperate zone to the north is clearly seen in most simulations as well as eastern move of the boundary of the maritime and continental type of temperate zone. However, there can be quite clear problem with model biases in climate types association. When analysing climate types in Europe and their shifts under climate change using Köppen-Trewartha classification (KTC), for the temperate climate type there are subtypes defined following the continentality patterns, and we can see their generally meridionally located divide across Europe shifted to the east. There is a question whether this is realistic or rather due to the simplistic condition in KTC following the winter minimum temperature, while other continentality indices consider rather the amplitude of temperature during the year. This leads us to connect our analysis of climate change effects using climate classification to the more detailed analysis of continentality patterns development in Europe to provide better insight on the climate regimes and to verify the continentality conditions, their definitions and climate change effects on them. The comparison of several selected continentality indices is shown.

Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basheer, Amir K.; Lu, Haishen; Omer, Abubaker; Ali, Abubaker B.; Abdelgader, Abdeldime M. S.

2016-04-01

The fate of seasonal river ecosystem habitats under climate change essentially depends on the changes in annual recharge of the river, which are related to alterations in precipitation and evaporation over the river basin. Therefore, the change in climate conditions is expected to significantly affect hydrological and ecological components, particularly in fragmented ecosystems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow in the Dinder River basin (DRB) and to infer its relative possible effects on the Dinder National Park (DNP) ecosystem habitats in Sudan. Four global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two statistical downscaling approaches combined with a hydrological model (SWAT - the Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were used to project the climate change conditions over the study periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The results indicated that the climate over the DRB will become warmer and wetter under most scenarios. The projected precipitation variability mainly depends on the selected GCM and downscaling approach. Moreover, the projected streamflow is quite sensitive to rainfall and temperature variation, and will likely increase in this century. In contrast to drought periods during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, the predicted climate change is likely to affect ecosystems in DNP positively and promote the ecological restoration for the habitats of flora and fauna.

Evolution under changing climates: climatic niche stasis despite rapid evolution in a non-native plant.

PubMed

Alexander, Jake M

2013-09-22

A topic of great current interest is the capacity of populations to adapt genetically to rapidly changing climates, for example by evolving the timing of life-history events, but this is challenging to address experimentally. I use a plant invasion as a model system to tackle this question by combining molecular markers, a common garden experiment and climatic niche modelling. This approach reveals that non-native Lactuca serriola originates primarily from Europe, a climatic subset of its native range, with low rates of admixture from Asia. It has rapidly refilled its climatic niche in the new range, associated with the evolution of flowering phenology to produce clines along climate gradients that mirror those across the native range. Consequently, some non-native plants have evolved development times and grow under climates more extreme than those found in Europe, but not among populations from the native range as a whole. This suggests that many plant populations can adapt rapidly to changed climatic conditions that are already within the climatic niche space occupied by the species elsewhere in its range, but that evolution to conditions outside of this range is more difficult. These findings can also help to explain the prevalence of niche conservatism among non-native species.

Impact of climate change on GHG emissions of (pre-) alpine grassland ecosystems under intensive and extensive management - a climate sequence lysimeter study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiese, Ralf; Lu, Haiyan; Fu, Jin; Diaz-Pines, Eugenio; Gasche, Rainer; Dannenmann, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus

2015-04-01

Due to cool and moist climatic conditions alpine grassland soils of moderate elevation are rich in soil organic carbon and associated nitrogen. In the framework of an in-situ climate change experiment we test the hypothesis that soil organic carbon and nitrogen are either volatilized (GHG emissions) or leached with seepage water due to increase in temperature. Field investigations are carried out in the (Pre-) Alpine TERENO Observatory covering several research sites (including ICOS sites) in South-Bavaria, Germany. IMK-IFU has installed 36 weighable lysimeters with undisturbed intact grassland soil cores (diameter 1m, depth 1.4m) and is operating them at three sites differing in altitude and thus climatic conditions (850m, 750m, 600m) since 2011. Lysimeters were partly translocated from higher elevation to sites at lower elevation and other soil cores still staying at the sites as controls. In addition to the space for time in-situ climate change approach the total of 36 lysimeters are split into treatments of intensive and extensive grassland management. GHG exchange was measured by manual (850m site) but also with two novel automatic robot chamber systems (750m, 600m) connected to QCLs for simultaneous detection of CO2, N2O, and CH4 concentration changes in chamber headspace. GHG flux monitoring was supplemented by NEE measurements with transparent chambers since 2014. Climate change, generally stimulated plant growth (according to biomass sampling after cutting events) and soil C and N turnover leading to increased soil CO2 emissions and an increased uptake of atmospheric CH4. N2O emission were generally low and slightly increased in spring, summer and autumn but significantly decreased during the winter period under global change conditions, the latter due to lower intensity and frequency of frost-thaw events. The main gaseous nitrogen component emitted from the grassland ecosystems was N2 which also showed a much stronger increase with climate change than N2O. Furthermore, climate change lead to a significant increase in nitrate leaching, whereas leaching of ammonium and DON as well as DOC were hardly affected. Climate induced changes in the GHG balance of (pre-) alpine grassland ecosystems are mainly triggered by alteration of ecosystem CO2 exchange since magnitude of CH4 (mainly uptake) and N2O exchange, even regarding their much higher global warming potential are of lower importance. Overall, impacts of climate change on ecosystem C and N losses seem to be more severe under extensive management.

Impact of the choice of the precipitation reference data set on climate model selection and the resulting climate change signal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gampe, D.; Ludwig, R.

2017-12-01

Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that downscale General Circulation Models (GCMs) are the primary tool to project future climate and serve as input to many impact models to assess the related changes and impacts under such climate conditions. Such RCMs are made available through the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). The ensemble of models provides a range of possible future climate changes around the ensemble mean climate change signal. The model outputs however are prone to biases compared to regional observations. A bias correction of these deviations is a crucial step in the impact modelling chain to allow the reproduction of historic conditions of i.e. river discharge. However, the detection and quantification of model biases are highly dependent on the selected regional reference data set. Additionally, in practice due to computational constraints it is usually not feasible to consider the entire ensembles of climate simulations with all members as input for impact models which provide information to support decision-making. Although more and more studies focus on model selection based on the preservation of the climate model spread, a selection based on validity, i.e. the representation of the historic conditions is still a widely applied approach. In this study, several available reference data sets for precipitation are selected to detect the model bias for the reference period 1989 - 2008 over the alpine catchment of the Adige River located in Northern Italy. The reference data sets originate from various sources, such as station data or reanalysis. These data sets are remapped to the common RCM grid at 0.11° resolution and several indicators, such as dry and wet spells, extreme precipitation and general climatology, are calculate to evaluate the capability of the RCMs to produce the historical conditions. The resulting RCM spread is compared against the spread of the reference data set to determine the related uncertainties and detect potential model biases with respect to each reference data set. The RCMs are then ranked based on various statistical measures for each indicator and a score matrix is derived to select a subset of RCMs. We show the impact and importance of the reference data set with respect to the resulting climate change signal on the catchment scale.

Tolerance and potential for adaptation of a Baltic Sea rockweed under predicted climate change conditions.

PubMed

Rugiu, Luca; Manninen, Iita; Rothäusler, Eva; Jormalainen, Veijo

2018-03-01

Climate change is threating species' persistence worldwide. To predict species responses to climate change we need information not just on their environmental tolerance but also on its adaptive potential. We tested how the foundation species of rocky littoral habitats, Fucus vesiculosus, responds to combined hyposalinity and warming projected to the Baltic Sea by 2070-2099. We quantified responses of replicated populations originating from the entrance, central, and marginal Baltic regions. Using replicated individuals, we tested for the presence of within-population tolerance variation. Future conditions hampered growth and survival of the central and marginal populations whereas the entrance populations fared well. Further, both the among- and within-population variation in responses to climate change indicated existence of genetic variation in tolerance. Such standing genetic variation provides the raw material necessary for adaptation to a changing environment, which may eventually ensure the persistence of the species in the inner Baltic Sea. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reaching Regional and Local Learners via a Great Lakes MOOC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mooney, M. E.; Ackerman, S. A.

2015-12-01

The Cooperative Institute of Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS) took a regional approach to climate change education in a 4-week MOOC (Massive Open On-line Course) on the Changing Weather and Climate in the Great Lakes Region launched in February 2015. Featuring a different season each week, this Great Lakes MOOC includes lectures about seasonal weather conditions, observed changes, and societal impacts of regional climate change, as well as actions with co-benefits to slow future climate change. To better connect with learners, CIMSS facilitated 21 discussion groups at public libraries around Wisconsin each week. Participants discussed climate change impacts in their communities as well as strategies to mitigate climate change. Not surprisingly, initial survey results show library participants were more committed, engaged, climate literate, and community minded. This session will share lessons learned and survey results from the Great Lakes MOOC which remains open and accessible on Coursera through February 2016 at https://www.coursera.org/course/greatlakesclimate.

Co-benefits of addressing climate change can motivate action around the world

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bain, Paul G.; Milfont, Taciano L.; Kashima, Yoshihisa; Bilewicz, Michał; Doron, Guy; Garðarsdóttir, Ragna B.; Gouveia, Valdiney V.; Guan, Yanjun; Johansson, Lars-Olof; Pasquali, Carlota; Corral-Verdugo, Victor; Aragones, Juan Ignacio; Utsugi, Akira; Demarque, Christophe; Otto, Siegmar; Park, Joonha; Soland, Martin; Steg, Linda; González, Roberto; Lebedeva, Nadezhda; Madsen, Ole Jacob; Wagner, Claire; Akotia, Charity S.; Kurz, Tim; Saiz, José L.; Schultz, P. Wesley; Einarsdóttir, Gró; Saviolidis, Nina M.

2016-02-01

Personal and political action on climate change is traditionally thought to be motivated by people accepting its reality and importance. However, convincing the public that climate change is real faces powerful ideological obstacles, and climate change is slipping in public importance in many countries. Here we investigate a different approach, identifying whether potential co-benefits of addressing climate change could motivate pro-environmental behaviour around the world for both those convinced and unconvinced that climate change is real. We describe an integrated framework for assessing beliefs about co-benefits, distinguishing social conditions (for example, economic development, reduced pollution or disease) and community character (for example, benevolence, competence). Data from all inhabited continents (24 countries; 6,196 participants) showed that two co-benefit types, Development (economic and scientific advancement) and Benevolence (a more moral and caring community), motivated public, private and financial actions to address climate change to a similar degree as believing climate change is important. Critically, relationships were similar for both convinced and unconvinced participants, showing that co-benefits can motivate action across ideological divides. These relationships were also independent of perceived climate change importance, and could not be explained by political ideology, age, or gender. Communicating co-benefits could motivate action on climate change where traditional approaches have stalled.

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon.

PubMed

Crozier, L G; Hendry, A P; Lawson, P W; Quinn, T P; Mantua, N J; Battin, J; Shaw, R G; Huey, R B

2008-05-01

Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon. We discuss the possible evolutionary responses in migration and spawning date egg and juvenile growth and development rates, thermal tolerance, and disease resistance. We know little about ocean migration pathways, so cannot confidently suggest the potential changes in this life stage. Climate change might produce conflicting selection pressures in different life stages, which will interact with plastic (i.e. nongenetic) changes in various ways. To clarify these interactions, we present a conceptual model of how changing environmental conditions shift phenotypic optima and, through plastic responses, phenotype distributions, affecting the force of selection. Our predictions are tentative because we lack data on the strength of selection, heritability, and ecological and genetic linkages among many of the traits discussed here. Despite the challenges involved in experimental manipulation of species with complex life histories, such research is essential for full appreciation of the biological effects of climate change.

Potential responses to climate change in organisms with complex life histories: evolution and plasticity in Pacific salmon

PubMed Central

Crozier, L G; Hendry, A P; Lawson, P W; Quinn, T P; Mantua, N J; Battin, J; Shaw, R G; Huey, R B

2008-01-01

Salmon life histories are finely tuned to local environmental conditions, which are intimately linked to climate. We summarize the likely impacts of climate change on the physical environment of salmon in the Pacific Northwest and discuss the potential evolutionary consequences of these changes, with particular reference to Columbia River Basin spring/summer Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) salmon. We discuss the possible evolutionary responses in migration and spawning date egg and juvenile growth and development rates, thermal tolerance, and disease resistance. We know little about ocean migration pathways, so cannot confidently suggest the potential changes in this life stage. Climate change might produce conflicting selection pressures in different life stages, which will interact with plastic (i.e. nongenetic) changes in various ways. To clarify these interactions, we present a conceptual model of how changing environmental conditions shift phenotypic optima and, through plastic responses, phenotype distributions, affecting the force of selection. Our predictions are tentative because we lack data on the strength of selection, heritability, and ecological and genetic linkages among many of the traits discussed here. Despite the challenges involved in experimental manipulation of species with complex life histories, such research is essential for full appreciation of the biological effects of climate change. PMID:25567630

Estuarine Response to River Flow and Sea-Level Rise under Future Climate Change and Human Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Zhaoqing; Wang, Taiping; Voisin, Nathalie

Understanding the response of river flow and estuarine hydrodynamics to climate change, land-use/land-cover change (LULC), and sea-level rise is essential to managing water resources and stress on living organisms under these changing conditions. This paper presents a modeling study using a watershed hydrology model and an estuarine hydrodynamic model, in a one-way coupling, to investigate the estuarine hydrodynamic response to sea-level rise and change in river flow due to the effect of future climate and LULC changes in the Snohomish River estuary, Washington, USA. A set of hydrodynamic variables, including salinity intrusion points, average water depth, and salinity of themore » inundated area, were used to quantify the estuarine response to river flow and sea-level rise. Model results suggest that salinity intrusion points in the Snohomish River estuary and the average salinity of the inundated areas are a nonlinear function of river flow, although the average water depth in the inundated area is approximately linear with river flow. Future climate changes will shift salinity intrusion points further upstream under low flow conditions and further downstream under high flow conditions. In contrast, under the future LULC change scenario, the salinity intrusion point will shift downstream under both low and high flow conditions, compared to present conditions. The model results also suggest that the average water depth in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise but at a slower rate, and the average salinity in the inundated areas increases linearly with sea-level rise; however, the response of salinity intrusion points in the river to sea-level rise is strongly nonlinear.« less

Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

2014-05-01

This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

Climate during the Roman and early-medieval periods in North-western Europe: a review of climate reconstructions from terrestrial archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reichelmann, Dana F. C.; Gouw-Bouman, Marjolein T. I. J.; Hoek, Wim Z.; van Lanen, Rowin J.; Stouthamer, Esther; Jansma, Esther

2016-04-01

High-resolution palaeoclimate reconstructions are essential to identify possible influences of climate variability on landscape evolution and landscape-related cultural changes (e.g., shifting settlement patterns and long-distance trade relations). North-western Europe is an ideal research area for comparison between climate variability and cultural transitions given its geomorphological diversity and the significant cultural changes that took place in this region during the last two millennia (e.g., the decline of the Roman Empire and the transition to medieval kingdoms). Compared to more global climate records, such as ice cores and marine sediments, terrestrial climate proxies have the advantage of representing a relatively short response time to regional climatic change. Furthermore for this region large quantity of climate reconstructions is available covering the last millennium, whereas for the first millennium AD only few high resolution climate reconstructions are available. We compiled climate reconstructions for sites in North-western Europe from the literature and its underlying data. All these reconstructions cover the time period of AD 1 to 1000. We only selected data with an annual to decadal resolution and a minimum resolution of 50 years. This resulted in 18 climate reconstructions from different archives such as chironomids (1), pollen (4), Sphagnum cellulose (1), stalagmites (6), testate amoebae (4), and tree-rings (2). The compilation of the different temperature reconstructions shows similar trends in most of the records. Colder conditions since AD 300 for a period of approximately 400 years and warmer conditions after AD 700 become apparent. A contradicting signal is found before AD 300 with warmer conditions indicated by most of the records but not all. This is likely the result of the use of different proxies, reflecting temperatures linked to different seasons. The compilation of the different precipitation reconstructions also show similar trends. Dry periods are indicated by all records around AD 400 and 600, although precipitation records do not show the same spatial continuity as the temperature proxies. This study shows that clear climate changes occurred over North-western Europe in the period between AD 300 and 700, which are partly reflected by changes in seasonality.

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

PubMed

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

Surface temperatures of the Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic Ocean: Implications for future climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dowsett, Harry J.; Chandler, Mark A.; Robinson, Marci M.

2009-01-01

The Mid-Pliocene is the most recent interval in the Earth's history to have experienced warming of the magnitude predicted for the second half of the twenty-first century and is, therefore, a possible analogue for future climate conditions. With continents basically in their current positions and atmospheric CO2 similar to early twenty-first century values, the cause of Mid-Pliocene warmth remains elusive. Understanding the behaviour of the North Atlantic Ocean during the Mid-Pliocene is integral to evaluating future climate scenarios owing to its role in deep water formation and its sensitivity to climate change. Under the framework of the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) sea surface reconstruction, we synthesize Mid-Pliocene North Atlantic studies by PRISM members and others, describing each region of the North Atlantic in terms of palaeoceanography. We then relate Mid-Pliocene sea surface conditions to expectations of future warming. The results of the data and climate model comparisons suggest that the North Atlantic is more sensitive to climate change than is suggested by climate model simulations, raising the concern that estimates of future climate change are conservative.

Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

2017-12-01

Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

Climate change and nesting behaviour in vertebrates: a review of the ecological threats and potential for adaptive responses.

PubMed

Mainwaring, Mark C; Barber, Iain; Deeming, Denis C; Pike, David A; Roznik, Elizabeth A; Hartley, Ian R

2017-11-01

Nest building is a taxonomically widespread and diverse trait that allows animals to alter local environments to create optimal conditions for offspring development. However, there is growing evidence that climate change is adversely affecting nest-building in animals directly, for example via sea-level rises that flood nests, reduced availability of building materials, and suboptimal sex allocation in species exhibiting temperature-dependent sex determination. Climate change is also affecting nesting species indirectly, via range shifts into suboptimal nesting areas, reduced quality of nest-building environments, and changes in interactions with nest predators and parasites. The ability of animals to adapt to sustained and rapid environmental change is crucial for the long-term persistence of many species. Many animals are known to be capable of adjusting nesting behaviour adaptively across environmental gradients and in line with seasonal changes, and this existing plasticity potentially facilitates adaptation to anthropogenic climate change. However, whilst alterations in nesting phenology, site selection and design may facilitate short-term adaptations, the ability of nest-building animals to adapt over longer timescales is likely to be influenced by the heritable basis of such behaviour. We urgently need to understand how the behaviour and ecology of nest-building in animals is affected by climate change, and particularly how altered patterns of nesting behaviour affect individual fitness and population persistence. We begin our review by summarising how predictable variation in environmental conditions influences nest-building animals, before highlighting the ecological threats facing nest-building animals experiencing anthropogenic climate change and examining the potential for changes in nest location and/or design to provide adaptive short- and long-term responses to changing environmental conditions. We end by identifying areas that we believe warrant the most urgent attention for further research. © 2016 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species: results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid.

PubMed

Sletvold, Nina; Dahlgren, Johan P; Oien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Ehrlén, Johan

2013-09-01

Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30 years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate-Soil-Vegetation Interactions: A Case-Study from the Forest Fire Phenomenon in Southern Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reinhard, M.; Alexakis, E.; Rebetez, M.; Schlaepfer, R.

2003-04-01

In Southern Switzerland, we have observed increasing trends in extreme drought and precipitation events, probably linked to global climatic change. These modifications are more important than changes in annual precipitation sums. On the one hand, an increase in extreme drought implies a higher risk for forest fires, impeding the fulfilment of the various forest functions, on the other hand, extreme precipitation events, developing over a short time span, could simultaneously damage the forest ecosystems or destabilise the soil of burned areas, triggering debris flows. Climatic changes might additionally lead to modifications of the current species composition in the forests. Changes are currently observed at lower elevations (laurophiliation), but are still largely unknown at higher elevations. For the time being, forest fires cannot be regarded as natural phenomena in the South of Switzerland because they are mostly anthropogenically triggered. However, the changing climatic patterns, which set new conditions for the forests, may become a new ecological regulator for the forests as well as the forest fires. The social and environmental consequences are important for these issues. The implications for forest planning and management must be further studied and taken into account. Despite uncertainty about the response of forest ecosystems to climate change, planning and management can no longer rely on decadal to century climatic patterns. The increasing importance of changing environmental conditions within the framework of prevention will have to be reconsidered.

Climate change and evolutionary adaptation.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Ary A; Sgrò, Carla M

2011-02-24

Evolutionary adaptation can be rapid and potentially help species counter stressful conditions or realize ecological opportunities arising from climate change. The challenges are to understand when evolution will occur and to identify potential evolutionary winners as well as losers, such as species lacking adaptive capacity living near physiological limits. Evolutionary processes also need to be incorporated into management programmes designed to minimize biodiversity loss under rapid climate change. These challenges can be met through realistic models of evolutionary change linked to experimental data across a range of taxa.

Climate and ecosystem linkages explain widespread declines in North American Atlantic salmon populations.

PubMed

Mills, Katherine E; Pershing, Andrew J; Sheehan, Timothy F; Mountain, David

2013-10-01

North American Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations experienced substantial declines in the early 1990s, and many populations have persisted at low abundances in recent years. Abundance and productivity declined in a coherent manner across major regions of North America, and this coherence points toward a potential shift in marine survivorship, rather than local, river-specific factors. The major declines in Atlantic salmon populations occurred against a backdrop of physical and biological shifts in Northwest Atlantic ecosystems. Analyses of changes in climate, physical, and lower trophic level biological factors provide substantial evidence that climate conditions directly and indirectly influence the abundance and productivity of North American Atlantic salmon populations. A major decline in salmon abundance after 1990 was preceded by a series of changes across multiple levels of the ecosystem, and a subsequent population change in 1997, primarily related to salmon productivity, followed an unusually low NAO event. Pairwise correlations further demonstrate that climate and physical conditions are associated with changes in plankton communities and prey availability, which are ultimately linked to Atlantic salmon populations. Results suggest that poor trophic conditions, likely due to climate-driven environmental factors, and warmer ocean temperatures throughout their marine habitat area are constraining the productivity and recovery of North American Atlantic salmon populations. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of climate change and management on N-balance of (pre-) alpine grassland soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Jin; Lu, Haiyan; Feng, Jinchao; Diaz-Pines, Eugenio; Gasche, Rainer; Dannenmann, Michael; Butterbach-bahl, Klaus; Kiese, Ralf

2014-05-01

On a global perspective terrestrial biosphere hosts significant pools of nitrogen. Due to cool and moist climatic conditions alpine grassland soils of moderate elevation (app. 1000m) in particular, have large quantities of nitrogen (N) and are important source of reactive nitrogen (Nr). The ability of grassland soil to conserve N may be influenced by changes in management and climate. In the framework of the TERENO project funded by Helmholtz Association and BMBF, IMK-IFU installed a lysimeter network with undisturbed intact grassland soil cores (area 1 m2, depth 1.5 m, 2-3 t of soil) at three sites along a natural altitudinal and thus climate gradient. The lysimeter network consisting of 36 lysimeters and is run for Climate Change research with a long term perspective (>10years). For investigation of Climate Change effect the space for time approach is followed, where lysimeters were translocated along the climate gradient, with some lysimeters remaining at the sites as controls. At all sites two different fertilizer application rates as manure were applied (extensive: 120 kg N ha-1 yr 1; intensive: 300 kg N ha-1 yr-1). The different components of the water balance i.e. precipitation, evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge of each lysimeter are measured by precision weighting of the lysimeters and a separate container for collection of seepage water at the lower boundary condition (1.4m). In addition, soil moisture and temperature are measured in 10, 30, 50, 140 cm soil depth. Soil water in 10, 30, 50 and 140 cm soil depth is sampled with suction cups. Water samples are collected regularly every 2 weeks and at higher frequency (e.g. 3 times a week) after fertilization and cutting events, and analyzed for concentration of DON, NH4+ and NO3-. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions (CO2, N2O and CH4) were measured manually with static chamber technique by GC as well as with automatic chambers via a new developed robot system and QCL Laser. On the basis of the results obtained Climate Change lead to an increase in N2O emission only in spring, summer and autumn but to a significant decrease during winter period. Due to the higher decrease in winter the annual N2O losses were lower under Climate Change. Furthermore a significant increase in N2 emissions could be observed. N2 to N2O ratio was up to 60 at the control site and up to 85 under Climate Change conditions, and both forms of gaseous losses showed an event based pattern (freeze-thaw, fertilization, precipitation). Climate Change leaded to a significant increase in nitrate leaching, whereas leaching of ammonium and DON remained unaffected. Intensive fertilization resulted in increased N-uptake by plants as well as increased NO3- leaching. Effect of Climate Change on nitrate leaching and N2O emission is more pronounced under extensive management. This is most likely due to the fact that under Climate Change conditions largest part of N applied was taken up by the plants and is no longer available for other processes.

Soil carbon response to projected climate change in the U.S. western corn belt

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The U.S. Western Corn Belt is projected to experience changes in growing conditions due to climate change over the next 50 to 100 years. Projected changes include an increase in growing season length, an increase in the number of high temperature stress days and warm nights, and an increase in preci...

Climate change and fire danger rating in the Northern Rockies

Treesearch

Faith Ann Heinsch; Charles W. McHugh

2010-01-01

Studies have indicated that changes in wildland fire activity are, at least in part, a product of climate change. Fire danger indices, driven by climatology, should reflect these changes. Energy Release Component (ERC) is considered to be an effective indicator of drought conditions and seasonal drying of forest fuels and is often used in fire management planning....

Coupled Ethical-Epistemic Analysis of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vezer, M.

2015-12-01

Are there inherent limitations to what we can know about how the climate will change in the years ahead? How can we use what is known about the future climate in a way that promotes ethical decision-making? These questions call for urgent attention because important policy decisions need to be made in order to prepare for climate change in North America and around the world. While the science of climate change is central to this line of inquiry, the fields of epistemology, moral, political and environmental philosophy may provide insights on how these issues should be addressed. Detailing the relationship between evidential and ethical dimensions of climate change, this research aims to improve our understanding of the interconnections among several lines of inquiry and to develop solutions to problems of decision-making under conditions of scientific uncertainty.

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change.

PubMed

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J; Roberts, David R; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth's surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, "analog-based" velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961-2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site's future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change.

Biotic and Climatic Velocity Identify Contrasting Areas of Vulnerability to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Carroll, Carlos; Lawler, Joshua J.; Roberts, David R.; Hamann, Andreas

2015-01-01

Metrics that synthesize the complex effects of climate change are essential tools for mapping future threats to biodiversity and predicting which species are likely to adapt in place to new climatic conditions, disperse and establish in areas with newly suitable climate, or face the prospect of extirpation. The most commonly used of such metrics is the velocity of climate change, which estimates the speed at which species must migrate over the earth’s surface to maintain constant climatic conditions. However, “analog-based” velocities, which represent the actual distance to where analogous climates will be found in the future, may provide contrasting results to the more common form of velocity based on local climate gradients. Additionally, whereas climatic velocity reflects the exposure of organisms to climate change, resultant biotic effects are dependent on the sensitivity of individual species as reflected in part by their climatic niche width. This has motivated development of biotic velocity, a metric which uses data on projected species range shifts to estimate the velocity at which species must move to track their climatic niche. We calculated climatic and biotic velocity for the Western Hemisphere for 1961–2100, and applied the results to example ecological and conservation planning questions, to demonstrate the potential of such analog-based metrics to provide information on broad-scale patterns of exposure and sensitivity. Geographic patterns of biotic velocity for 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians differed from climatic velocity in north temperate and boreal regions. However, both biotic and climatic velocities were greatest at low latitudes, implying that threats to equatorial species arise from both the future magnitude of climatic velocities and the narrow climatic tolerances of species in these regions, which currently experience low seasonal and interannual climatic variability. Biotic and climatic velocity, by approximating lower and upper bounds on migration rates, can inform conservation of species and locally-adapted populations, respectively, and in combination with backward velocity, a function of distance to a source of colonizers adapted to a site’s future climate, can facilitate conservation of diversity at multiple scales in the face of climate change. PMID:26466364

Future frequencies of extreme weather events in the National Wildlife Refuges of the conterminous U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Allstadt, Andrew J.; Bateman, Brooke L.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Radeloff, Volker C.

2016-01-01

Climate change is a major challenge for managers of protected areas world-wide, and managers need information about future climate conditions within protected areas. Prior studies of climate change effects in protected areas have largely focused on average climatic conditions. However, extreme weather may have stronger effects on wildlife populations and habitats than changes in averages. Our goal was to quantify future changes in the frequency of extreme heat, drought, and false springs, during the avian breeding season, in 415 National Wildlife Refuges in the conterminous United States. We analyzed spatially detailed data on extreme weather frequencies during the historical period (1950–2005) and under different scenarios of future climate change by mid- and late-21st century. We found that all wildlife refuges will likely experience substantial changes in the frequencies of extreme weather, but the types of projected changes differed among refuges. Extreme heat is projected to increase dramatically in all wildlife refuges, whereas changes in droughts and false springs are projected to increase or decrease on a regional basis. Half of all wildlife refuges are projected to see increases in frequency (> 20% higher than the current rate) in at least two types of weather extremes by mid-century. Wildlife refuges in the Southwest and Pacific Southwest are projected to exhibit the fastest rates of change, and may deserve extra attention. Climate change adaptation strategies in protected areas, such as the U.S. wildlife refuges, may need to seriously consider future changes in extreme weather, including the considerable spatial variation of these changes.

Modelling climate change and malaria transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin

2010-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health has received increasing attention in recent years, with potential impacts due to vector-borne diseases only now beginning to be understood. As the most severe vector-borne disease, with one million deaths globally in 2006, malaria is thought most likely to be affected by changes in climate variables due to the sensitivity of its transmission dynamics to environmental conditions. While considerable research has been carried out using statistical models to better assess the relationship between changes in environmental variables and malaria incidence, less progress has been made on developing process-based climate-driven mathematical models with greater explanatory power. Here, we develop a simple model of malaria transmission linked to climate which permits useful insights into the sensitivity of disease transmission to changes in rainfall and temperature variables. Both the impact of changes in the mean values of these key external variables and importantly temporal variation in these values are explored. We show that the development and analysis of such dynamic climate-driven transmission models will be crucial to understanding the rate at which P. falciparum and P. vivax may either infect, expand into or go extinct in populations as local environmental conditions change. Malaria becomes endemic in a population when the basic reproduction number R0 is greater than unity and we identify an optimum climate-driven transmission window for the disease, thus providing a useful indicator for determing how transmission risk may change as climate changes. Overall, our results indicate that considerable work is required to better understand ways in which global malaria incidence and distribution may alter with climate change. In particular, we show that the roles of seasonality, stochasticity and variability in environmental variables, as well as ultimately anthropogenic effects, require further study. The work presented here offers a theoretical framework upon which this future research may be developed.

Interactions of Mean Climate Change and Climate Variability on Food Security Extremes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alexander C.; McDermid, Sonali; Mavromatis, Theodoros; Hudson, Nicholas; Morales, Monica; Simmons, John; Prabodha, Agalawatte; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahuja, Laj R.

2015-01-01

Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, we present preliminary analyses of climate impacts from a network of 1137 crop modeling sites contributed to the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP). At each site sensitivity tests were run according to a common protocol, which enables the fitting of crop model emulators across a range of carbon dioxide, temperature, and water (CTW) changes. C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes and quantify crop responses across a wide diversity of farming systems. Here we test the hypothesis that climate change and variability interact in three main ways. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes, leading to more frequent seasons with anomalies outside of the expected conditions for which management was designed. In this way, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.C3MP maize simulations across 126 farms reveal a clear indication and quantification (as response functions) of mean climate impacts on mean yield and clearly show that mean climate changes will directly affect the variability of yield. Yield reductions from increased climate variability are not as clear as crop models tend to be less sensitive to dangers on the cool and wet extremes of climate variability, likely underestimating losses from water-logging, floods, and frosts.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate.

PubMed

Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C; Hahn, W Andreas; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

2015-02-01

Shifts in tree species distributions caused by climatic change are expected to cause severe losses in the economic value of European forestland. However, this projection disregards potential adaptation options such as tree species conversion, shorter production periods, or establishment of mixed species forests. The effect of tree species mixture has, as yet, not been quantitatively investigated for its potential to mitigate future increases in production risks. For the first time, we use survival time analysis to assess the effects of climate, species mixture and soil condition on survival probabilities for Norway spruce and European beech. Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) models based on an extensive dataset of almost 65,000 trees from the European Forest Damage Survey (FDS)--part of the European-wide Level I monitoring network--predicted a 24% decrease in survival probability for Norway spruce in pure stands at age 120 when unfavorable changes in climate conditions were assumed. Increasing species admixture greatly reduced the negative effects of unfavorable climate conditions, resulting in a decline in survival probabilities of only 7%. We conclude that future studies of forest management under climate change as well as forest policy measures need to take this, as yet unconsidered, strongly advantageous effect of tree species mixture into account. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gremer, Jennifer; Bradford, John B.; Munson, Seth M.; Duniway, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20 to 56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40 to 60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands.

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States.

PubMed

Gremer, Jennifer R; Bradford, John B; Munson, Seth M; Duniway, Michael C

2015-11-01

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20-56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40-60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C3 than C4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?

PubMed

Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne

2015-06-02

Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.

Is Climate Chang Responsible to Recent Urban Flooding in Devloping Cities in Africa? A Case study of Addis Ababa City, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moges, Semu; Raschid-Sally, Liqa; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

2013-04-01

Cities in Africa show extraordinary expansion of the built environment and imperviousness of the surface condition. Addis Ababa is a case in point, where over the priod of 1984 to 2002, the city asphalted area has increased from 4.72 sq.km (1984) to 27.7 sq.km (2002). Similarly the paved area has expanded five fold from the original 11.1 sq.km, whilst the built environment expanded from 60.1 to 212.7 sq.km. Using hydrological modeling, we demonstrated due to the surface condition change, runoff generation potential has shown significant increase from 28% (in 1984) to 45% (in 2002), showing over 60% change in the runoff volume. The changing condition of the surface is increasing anabtedly, worsening the flooding condition. Similarly, climate change study shows likely increase of precipitation in and around Addis Ababa by about 13 to 17% and comparative increase in flooding. Unlike many cities in Europe, cities in developing countries are confronted with impact emanating from climate change as well as surface condition change. The impact of flooding caused due to the expansion of built environment is found to be more significant in the short term that the climate change, however, the climate change may dominate the long term future of flooding pattern as cities mature towards 2050. Therefore, It is important to view the impacts expansion of built environment and climate change in tandem in future time horizon since the dominance of the impact is different in different temporal scale. In the case of Addis Ababa, we strongly present the following four suggesions: i) the city adminstration re-estabilish the abandoned flood and drainage department of the city as the main flood regulatory and management body working in tandem with Addis Ababa Roads Authority, Water Supply and Sanitation Authority and Urban Planning Authority; ii) The old design guidlines for palnning and design of urban drainage system is not working any more (assumed stationarity condition), we suggest the planning and design criteria of urban drainage systems be immediately revised and incorporated to reflect the new reality of hydrologial non-stationarity; iii) for Addis Ababa City to be Resilient, we suggest implementation of 'Best Managemnt Practice" that incorporates arresting runoff from the source for benefial use, application of runoff treatment practices (open space, infiltration galleries, retardnat ponds, etc) and flood flow control drainage system based on new design criteria, and iv) instituting improved weather forecasting and early warning system.

Climate and the equilibrium state of land surface hydrology parameterizations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Entekhabi, Dara; Eagleson, Peter S.

1991-01-01

For given climatic rates of precipitation and potential evaporation, the land surface hydrology parameterizations of atmospheric general circulation models will maintain soil-water storage conditions that balance the moisture input and output. The surface relative soil saturation for such climatic conditions serves as a measure of the land surface parameterization state under a given forcing. The equilibrium value of this variable for alternate parameterizations of land surface hydrology are determined as a function of climate and the sensitivity of the surface to shifts and changes in climatic forcing are estimated.

Seasonal changes in the human alteration of fire regimes beyond the climate forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fréjaville, Thibaut; Curt, Thomas

2017-03-01

Human activities have altered fire regimes for millennia by suppressing or enhancing natural fire activity. However, whether these anthropogenic pressures on fire activity have exceeded and will surpass climate forcing still remains uncertain. We tested if, how and the extent to which seasonal fire activity in southern France has recently (1976-2009) deviated from climate-expected trends. The latter were simulated using an ensemble of detrended fire-climate models. We found both seasonal and regional contrasts in climatic effects through a mixture of drought-driven and fuel-limited fire regimes. Dry contemporary conditions chiefly drove fire frequency and burned area, although higher fire activity was related to wetter conditions in the last three years. Surprisingly, the relative importance of preceding wet conditions was higher in winter than in summer, illustrating the strong potential dependency of regional fire-climate relationships on the human use and control of fires. In the Mediterranean mountains, warm winters and springs favour extensive fires in the following dry summer. These results highlight that increasing dryness with climate change could have antagonistic effects on fire regime by leading to larger fires in summer (moisture-limited), but lower fire activity in winter (fuel-limited fire regime). Furthermore, fire trends have significantly diverged from climatic expectations, with a strong negative alteration in fire activity in the Mediterranean lowlands and the summer burned area in the mountains. In contrast, alteration of winter fire frequency in the Mediterranean and Temperate mountains has shifted from positive to negative (or null) trends during the mid-1990s, a period when fire suppression policy underwent major revisions. Our findings demonstrate that changes in land-use and fire suppression policy have probably exceeded the strength of climate change effects on changing fire regime in southern Europe, making regional predictions of future fires highly challenging.

Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

2013-01-15

The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to reduce climate change impacts statistically insignificant (i.e., for approximately one third of the investigated management units of the AFF case study), fostering adaptive capacity is suggested as the preferred pathway for adaptation. We conclude that climate change adaptation needs to balance between anticipating expected future conditions and building the capacity to address unknowns and surprises. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developing and applying uncertain global climate change projections for regional water management planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, David G.; Yates, David; Tebaldi, Claudia

2008-12-01

Climate change may impact water resources management conditions in difficult-to-predict ways. A key challenge for water managers is how to incorporate highly uncertain information about potential climate change from global models into local- and regional-scale water management models and tools to support local planning. This paper presents a new method for developing large ensembles of local daily weather that reflect a wide range of plausible future climate change scenarios while preserving many statistical properties of local historical weather patterns. This method is demonstrated by evaluating the possible impact of climate change on the Inland Empire Utilities Agency service area in southern California. The analysis shows that climate change could impact the region, increasing outdoor water demand by up to 10% by 2040, decreasing local water supply by up to 40% by 2040, and decreasing sustainable groundwater yields by up to 15% by 2040. The range of plausible climate projections suggests the need for the region to augment its long-range water management plans to reduce its vulnerability to climate change.

Analyzing climate variations at multiple timescales can guide Zika virus response measures.

PubMed

Muñoz, Ángel G; Thomson, Madeleine C; Goddard, Lisa; Aldighieri, Sylvain

2016-10-06

The emergence of Zika virus (ZIKV) in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2014-2016 occurred during a period of severe drought and unusually high temperatures, conditions that have been associated with the 2015-2016 El Niño event, and/or climate change; however, no quantitative assessment has been made to date. Analysis of related flaviviruses transmitted by the same vectors suggests that ZIKV dynamics are sensitive to climate seasonality and longer-term variability and trends. A better understanding of the climate conditions conducive to the 2014-2016 epidemic may permit the development of climate-informed short and long-term strategies for ZIKV prevention and control. Using a novel timescale-decomposition methodology, we demonstrate that the extreme climate anomalies observed in most parts of South America during the current epidemic are not caused exclusively by El Niño or climate change, but by a combination of climate signals acting at multiple timescales. In Brazil, the dry conditions present in 2013-2015 are primarily explained by year-to-year variability superimposed on decadal variability, but with little contribution of long-term trends. In contrast, the warm temperatures of 2014-2015 resulted from the compound effect of climate change, decadal and year-to-year climate variability. ZIKV response strategies made in Brazil during the drought concurrent with the 2015-2016 El Niño event, may require revision in light of the likely return of rainfall associated with the borderline La Niña event expected in 2016-2017. Temperatures are likely to remain warm given the importance of long term and decadal scale climate signals. The Author(s)

An approach to consider behavioral plasticity as a source of uncertainty when forecasting species' response to climate change

PubMed Central

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2015-01-01

The rapid ecological shifts that are occurring due to climate change present major challenges for managers and policymakers and, therefore, are one of the main concerns for environmental modelers and evolutionary biologists. Species distribution models (SDM) are appropriate tools for assessing the relationship between species distribution and environmental conditions, so being customarily used to forecast the biogeographical response of species to climate change. A serious limitation of species distribution models when forecasting the effects of climate change is that they normally assume that species behavior and climatic tolerances will remain constant through time. In this study, we propose a new methodology, based on fuzzy logic, useful for incorporating the potential capacity of species to adapt to new conditions into species distribution models. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to include different behavioral responses of species when predicting the effects of climate change on species distribution. Favorability models offered in this study show two extremes: one considering that the species will not modify its present behavior, and another assuming that the species will take full advantage of the possibilities offered by an increase in environmental favorability. This methodology may mean a more realistic approach to the assessment of the consequences of global change on species' distribution and conservation. Overlooking the potential of species' phenotypical plasticity may under- or overestimate the predicted response of species to changes in environmental drivers and its effects on species distribution. Using this approach, we could reinforce the science behind conservation planning in the current situation of rapid climate change. PMID:26120426

An approach to consider behavioral plasticity as a source of uncertainty when forecasting species' response to climate change.

PubMed

Muñoz, Antonio-Román; Márquez, Ana Luz; Real, Raimundo

2015-06-01

The rapid ecological shifts that are occurring due to climate change present major challenges for managers and policymakers and, therefore, are one of the main concerns for environmental modelers and evolutionary biologists. Species distribution models (SDM) are appropriate tools for assessing the relationship between species distribution and environmental conditions, so being customarily used to forecast the biogeographical response of species to climate change. A serious limitation of species distribution models when forecasting the effects of climate change is that they normally assume that species behavior and climatic tolerances will remain constant through time. In this study, we propose a new methodology, based on fuzzy logic, useful for incorporating the potential capacity of species to adapt to new conditions into species distribution models. Our results demonstrate that it is possible to include different behavioral responses of species when predicting the effects of climate change on species distribution. Favorability models offered in this study show two extremes: one considering that the species will not modify its present behavior, and another assuming that the species will take full advantage of the possibilities offered by an increase in environmental favorability. This methodology may mean a more realistic approach to the assessment of the consequences of global change on species' distribution and conservation. Overlooking the potential of species' phenotypical plasticity may under- or overestimate the predicted response of species to changes in environmental drivers and its effects on species distribution. Using this approach, we could reinforce the science behind conservation planning in the current situation of rapid climate change.

Inadvertent Weather Modification in Urban Areas: Lessons for Global Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1992-05-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the nation's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multi disciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioral implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

Simulated hydrologic responses to climate variations and change in the Merced, Carson, and American River basins, Sierra Nevada, California, 1900-2099 *

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Meyer, M.K.; Jeton, A.

2004-01-01

Hydrologic responses of river basins in the Sierra Nevada of California to historical and future climate variations and changes are assessed by simulating daily streamflow and water-balance responses to simulated climate variations over a continuous 200-yr period. The coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-land Parallel Climate Model provides the simulated climate histories, and existing hydrologic models of the Merced, Carson, and American Rivers are used to simulate the basin responses. The historical simulations yield stationary climate and hydrologic variations through the first part of the 20th century until about 1975 when temperatures begin to warm noticeably and when snowmelt and streamflow peaks begin to occur progressively earlier within the seasonal cycle. A future climate simulated with business-as-usual increases in greenhouse-gas and aerosol radiative forcings continues those recent trends through the 21st century with an attendant +2.5??C warming and a hastening of snowmelt and streamflow within the seasonal cycle by almost a month. The various projected trends in the business-as-usual simulations become readily visible despite realistic simulated natural climatic and hydrologic variability by about 2025. In contrast to these changes that are mostly associated with streamflow timing, long-term average totals of streamflow and other hydrologic fluxes remain similar to the historical mean in all three simulations. A control simulation in which radiative forcings are held constant at 1995 levels for the 50 years following 1995 yields climate and streamflow timing conditions much like the 1980s and 1990s throughout its duration. The availability of continuous climate-change projection outputs and careful design of initial conditions and control experiments, like those utilized here, promise to improve the quality and usability of future climate-change impact assessments.

Predicting impacts of climate change on habitat connectivity of Kalopanax septemlobus in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kang, Wanmo; Minor, Emily S.; Lee, Dowon; Park, Chan-Ryul

2016-02-01

Understanding the drivers of habitat distribution patterns and assessing habitat connectivity are crucial for conservation in the face of climate change. In this study, we examined a sparsely distributed tree species, Kalopanax septemlobus (Araliaceae), which has been heavily disturbed by human use in temperate forests of South Korea. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling (MaxEnt) to identify the climatic and topographic factors driving the distribution of the species. Then, we constructed habitat models under current and projected climate conditions for the year 2050 and evaluated changes in the extent and connectivity of the K. septemlobus habitat. Annual mean temperature and terrain slope were the two most important predictors of species distribution. Our models predicted the range shift of K. septemlobus toward higher elevations under medium-low and high emissions scenarios for 2050, with dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (51% and 85%, respectively). In addition, connectivity analysis indicated that climate change is expected to reduce future levels of habitat connectivity. Even under the Representative Construction Pathway (RCP) 4.5 medium-low warming scenario, the projected climate conditions will decrease habitat connectivity by 78%. Overall, suitable habitats for K. septemlobus populations will likely become more isolated depending on the severity of global warming. The approach presented here can be used to efficiently assess species and habitat vulnerability to climate change.

Climate change in safety assessment of a surface disposal facility

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leterme, B.

2012-04-01

The Belgian Agency for Radioactive Waste and Enriched Fissile Materials (ONDRAF/NIRAS) aims to develop a surface disposal facility for LILW-SL in Dessel (North-East of Belgium). Given the time scale of interest for the safety assessment (several millennia), a number of parameters in the modelling chain near field - geosphere - biosphere may be influenced by climate change. The present study discusses how potential climate change impact was accounted for the following quantities: (i) near field infiltration through the repository earth cover, (ii) partial pressure of CO2 in the water infiltrating the cover and draining the concrete, and (iii) groundwater recharge in the vicinity of the site. For these three parameters, the impact of climate change is assessed using climatic analogue stations, i.e. stations presently under climatic conditions corresponding to a given climate state. Results indicate that : (i) Using Gijon (Spain) as representative analogue station for the next millennia, infiltration at the bottom of the soil layer towards the modules of the facility is expected to increase (from 346 to 413 mm/y) under a subtropical climate. Although no colder climate is foreseen in the next 10 000 years, the approach was also tested with analogue stations for a colder climate state. Using Sisimiut (Greenland) as representative analogue station, infiltration is expected to decrease (109 mm/y). (ii) Due to changes of the partial pressure of CO2 in the soil water, cement degradation is estimated to occur more rapidly under a warmer climate. (iii) A decrease of long-term annual average groundwater recharge by 12% was simulated using Gijon representative analogue (from 314 to 276 mm), although total rainfall was higher (947 mm) in the warmer climate compared to the current temperate climate (899 mm). For a colder climate state, groundwater recharge simulated for the representative analogue Sisimiut showed a decrease by 69% compared to current climate conditions. The advantages and weaknesses of using analogue stations are also discussed.

Incorporating climate science in applications of the US endangered species act for aquatic species.

PubMed

McClure, Michelle M; Alexander, Michael; Borggaard, Diane; Boughton, David; Crozier, Lisa; Griffis, Roger; Jorgensen, Jeffrey C; Lindley, Steven T; Nye, Janet; Rowland, Melanie J; Seney, Erin E; Snover, Amy; Toole, Christopher; VAN Houtan, Kyle

2013-12-01

Aquatic species are threatened by climate change but have received comparatively less attention than terrestrial species. We gleaned key strategies for scientists and managers seeking to address climate change in aquatic conservation planning from the literature and existing knowledge. We address 3 categories of conservation effort that rely on scientific analysis and have particular application under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA): assessment of overall risk to a species; long-term recovery planning; and evaluation of effects of specific actions or perturbations. Fewer data are available for aquatic species to support these analyses, and climate effects on aquatic systems are poorly characterized. Thus, we recommend scientists conducting analyses supporting ESA decisions develop a conceptual model that links climate, habitat, ecosystem, and species response to changing conditions and use this model to organize analyses and future research. We recommend that current climate conditions are not appropriate for projections used in ESA analyses and that long-term projections of climate-change effects provide temporal context as a species-wide assessment provides spatial context. In these projections, climate change should not be discounted solely because the magnitude of projected change at a particular time is uncertain when directionality of climate change is clear. Identifying likely future habitat at the species scale will indicate key refuges and potential range shifts. However, the risks and benefits associated with errors in modeling future habitat are not equivalent. The ESA offers mechanisms for increasing the overall resilience and resistance of species to climate changes, including establishing recovery goals requiring increased genetic and phenotypic diversity, specifying critical habitat in areas not currently occupied but likely to become important, and using adaptive management. Incorporación de las Ciencias Climáticas en las Aplicaciones del Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro para Especies Acuáticas. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology No claim to original US government works.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on herbicide leaching--a regional scale assessment in Sweden.

PubMed

Steffens, Karin; Jarvis, Nicholas; Lewan, Elisabet; Lindström, Bodil; Kreuger, Jenny; Kjellström, Erik; Moeys, Julien

2015-05-01

Climate change is not only likely to improve conditions for crop production in Sweden, but also to increase weed pressure and the need for herbicides. This study aimed at assessing and contrasting the direct and indirect effects of climate change on herbicide leaching to groundwater in a major crop production region in south-west Sweden with the help of the regional pesticide fate and transport model MACRO-SE. We simulated 37 out of the 41 herbicides that are currently approved for use in Sweden on eight major crop types for the 24 most common soil types in the region. The results were aggregated accounting for the fractional coverage of the crop and the area sprayed with a particular herbicide. For simulations of the future, we used projections of five different climate models as model driving data and assessed three different future scenarios: (A) only changes in climate, (B) changes in climate and land-use (altered crop distribution), and (C) changes in climate, land-use, and an increase in herbicide use. The model successfully distinguished between leachable and non-leachable compounds (88% correctly classified) in a qualitative comparison against regional-scale monitoring data. Leaching was dominated by only a few herbicides and crops under current climate and agronomic conditions. The model simulations suggest that the direct effects of an increase in temperature, which enhances degradation, and precipitation which promotes leaching, cancel each other at a regional scale, resulting in a slight decrease in leachate concentrations in a future climate. However, the area at risk of groundwater contamination doubled when indirect effects of changes in land-use and herbicide use, were considered. We therefore concluded that it is important to consider the indirect effects of climate change alongside the direct effects and that effective mitigation strategies and strict regulation are required to secure future (drinking) water resources. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbon-Temperature-Water Change Analysis for Peanut Production Under Climate Change: A Prototype for the AgMIP Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; McDermid, Sonali; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Baigorria, Guillermo A.; Jones, James W.; Romero, Consuelo C.; Cecil, L. DeWayne

2014-01-01

Climate change is projected to push the limits of cropping systems and has the potential to disrupt the agricultural sector from local to global scales. This article introduces the Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP), an initiative of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to engage a global network of crop modelers to explore the impacts of climate change via an investigation of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide concentration ([CO2]), temperature, and water. As a demonstration of the C3MP protocols and enabled analyses, we apply the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) CROPGRO-Peanut crop model for Henry County, Alabama, to evaluate responses to the range of plausible [CO2], temperature changes, and precipitation changes projected by climate models out to the end of the 21st century. These sensitivity tests are used to derive crop model emulators that estimate changes in mean yield and the coefficient of variation for seasonal yields across a broad range of climate conditions, reproducing mean yields from sensitivity test simulations with deviations of ca. 2% for rain-fed conditions. We apply these statistical emulators to investigate how peanuts respond to projections from various global climate models, time periods, and emissions scenarios, finding a robust projection of modest (<10%) median yield losses in the middle of the 21st century accelerating to more severe (>20%) losses and larger uncertainty at the end of the century under the more severe representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5). This projection is not substantially altered by the selection of the AgMERRA global gridded climate dataset rather than the local historical observations, differences between the Third and Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5), or the use of the delta method of climate impacts analysis rather than the C3MP impacts response surface and emulator approach.

Modelling study of soil C, N and pH response to air pollution and climate change using European LTER site observations.

PubMed

Holmberg, Maria; Aherne, Julian; Austnes, Kari; Beloica, Jelena; De Marco, Alessandra; Dirnböck, Thomas; Fornasier, Maria Francesca; Goergen, Klaus; Futter, Martyn; Lindroos, Antti-Jussi; Krám, Pavel; Neirynck, Johan; Nieminen, Tiina Maileena; Pecka, Tomasz; Posch, Maximilian; Pröll, Gisela; Rowe, Ed C; Scheuschner, Thomas; Schlutow, Angela; Valinia, Salar; Forsius, Martin

2018-05-31

Current climate warming is expected to continue in coming decades, whereas high N deposition may stabilize, in contrast to the clear decrease in S deposition. These pressures have distinctive regional patterns and their resulting impact on soil conditions is modified by local site characteristics. We have applied the VSD+ soil dynamic model to study impacts of deposition and climate change on soil properties, using MetHyd and GrowUp as pre-processors to provide input to VSD+. The single-layer soil model VSD+ accounts for processes of organic C and N turnover, as well as charge and mass balances of elements, cation exchange and base cation weathering. We calibrated VSD+ at 26 ecosystem study sites throughout Europe using observed conditions, and simulated key soil properties: soil solution pH (pH), soil base saturation (BS) and soil organic carbon and nitrogen ratio (C:N) under projected deposition of N and S, and climate warming until 2100. The sites are forested, located in the Mediterranean, forested alpine, Atlantic, continental and boreal regions. They represent the long-term ecological research (LTER) Europe network, including sites of the ICP Forests and ICP Integrated Monitoring (IM) programmes under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), providing high quality long-term data on ecosystem response. Simulated future soil conditions improved under projected decrease in deposition and current climate conditions: higher pH, BS and C:N at 21, 16 and 12 of the sites, respectively. When climate change was included in the scenario analysis, the variability of the results increased. Climate warming resulted in higher simulated pH in most cases, and higher BS and C:N in roughly half of the cases. Especially the increase in C:N was more marked with climate warming. The study illustrates the value of LTER sites for applying models to predict soil responses to multiple environmental changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Has climate change shifted US maize planting times?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, E.; Stine, A.; Huybers, P.

2012-12-01

Global warming has been accompanied by an earlier onset of spring phenological events across a range of ecosystems. However, the degree to which humans have adapted planting schedules to a changing climate remains an open question; the leading hypotheses for earlier planting are improved hardiness of cultivars and farming equipment. Here we examine the relationship between historical temperature and precipitation from 549 weather stations from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) with planting schedules from 20 states in the United States Department of Agriculture/National Agriculture Statistics Service (USDA/NASS) database. We construct an empirical model to relate yearly weather conditions to predict planting dates and compare this to the spatial distribution of climate conditions and mean planting times. Evidence for a relationship between climate and planting schedules indicates that planting schedules for US maize have been adapted to yearly variations and overall changes in climatology. As one might expect, hotter temperatures lead to earlier plantings while greater precipitation leads to later planting. These findings serve to indicate extant adaptation between US farmers and climate change, and will aid in forecasting future shifts to planting schedules as climate continues to change. Furthermore, the statistical model should also be useful for estimating planting times for states and years for which records do not otherwise exist.

On the appropriate definition of soil profile configuration and initial conditions for land surface-hydrology models in cold regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapriza-Azuri, Gonzalo; Gamazo, Pablo; Razavi, Saman; Wheater, Howard S.

2018-06-01

Arctic and subarctic regions are amongst the most susceptible regions on Earth to global warming and climate change. Understanding and predicting the impact of climate change in these regions require a proper process representation of the interactions between climate, carbon cycle, and hydrology in Earth system models. This study focuses on land surface models (LSMs) that represent the lower boundary condition of general circulation models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs), which simulate climate change evolution at the global and regional scales, respectively. LSMs typically utilize a standard soil configuration with a depth of no more than 4 m, whereas for cold, permafrost regions, field experiments show that attention to deep soil profiles is needed to understand and close the water and energy balances, which are tightly coupled through the phase change. To address this gap, we design and run a series of model experiments with a one-dimensional LSM, called CLASS (Canadian Land Surface Scheme), as embedded in the MESH (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire - Surface and Hydrology) modelling system, to (1) characterize the effect of soil profile depth under different climate conditions and in the presence of parameter uncertainty; (2) assess the effect of including or excluding the geothermal flux in the LSM at the bottom of the soil column; and (3) develop a methodology for temperature profile initialization in permafrost regions, where the system has an extended memory, by the use of paleo-records and bootstrapping. Our study area is in Norman Wells, Northwest Territories of Canada, where measurements of soil temperature profiles and historical reconstructed climate data are available. Our results demonstrate a dominant role for parameter uncertainty, that is often neglected in LSMs. Considering such high sensitivity to parameter values and dependency on the climate condition, we show that a minimum depth of 20 m is essential to adequately represent the temperature dynamics. We further show that our proposed initialization procedure is effective and robust to uncertainty in paleo-climate reconstructions and that more than 300 years of reconstructed climate time series are needed for proper model initialization.

Breeding crops for improved mineral nutrition under climate change conditions.

PubMed

Pilbeam, David J

2015-06-01

Improvements in understanding how climate change may influence chemical and physical processes in soils, how this may affect nutrient availability, and how plants may respond to changed availability of nutrients will influence crop breeding programmes. The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, both individually and combined, on soil microbial activity, including mycorrhizas and N-fixing organisms, are evaluated, together with their implications for nutrient availability. Potential changes to plant growth, and the combined effects of soil and plant changes on nutrient uptake, are discussed. The organization of research on the efficient use of macro- and micronutrients by crops under climate change conditions is outlined, including analysis of QTLs for nutrient efficiency. Suggestions for how the information gained can be used in plant breeding programmes are given. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

PubMed Central

Jerez, Sonia; Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Montávez, Juan Pedro; López-Romero, Jose María; Thais, Françoise; Bartok, Blanka; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Nikulin, Grigory; Kotlarski, Sven; van Meijgaard, Erik; Teichmann, Claas; Wild, Martin

2015-01-01

Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (−14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector. PMID:26658608

Signal to noise quantification of regional climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, S.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

2016-12-01

One of the biggest challenges in interpreting climate model outputs for impacts studies and adaptation planning is understanding the sources of disagreement among models (which is often used imperfectly as a stand-in for system uncertainty). Internal variability is a primary source of uncertainty in climate projections, especially for precipitation, for which models disagree about even the sign of changes in large areas like the continental US. Taking advantage of a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate simulations, this study quantifies the magnitude of changes forced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations relative to internal variability. Results come from a large initial-condition ensemble of regional climate model simulations generated by weather@home, a citizen science computing platform, where the western United States climate was simulated for the recent past (1985-2014) and future (2030-2059) using a 25-km horizontal resolution regional climate model (HadRM3P) nested in global atmospheric model (HadAM3P). We quantify grid point level signal-to-noise not just in temperature and precipitation responses, but also the energy and moisture flux terms that are related to temperature and precipitation responses, to provide important insights regarding uncertainty in climate change projections at local and regional scales. These results will aid modelers in determining appropriate ensemble sizes for different climate variables and help users of climate model output with interpreting climate model projections.

Challenges of climate change

PubMed Central

Husaini, Amjad M

2014-01-01

Kashmir valley is a major saffron (Crocus sativus Kashmirianus) growing area of the world, second only to Iran in terms of production. In Kashmir, saffron is grown on uplands (termed in the local language as “Karewas”), which are lacustrine deposits located at an altitude of 1585 to 1677 m above mean sea level (amsl), under temperate climatic conditions. Kashmir, despite being one of the oldest historical saffron-producing areas faces a rapid decline of saffron industry. Among many other factors responsible for decline of saffron industry the preponderance of erratic rainfalls and drought-like situation have become major challenges imposed by climate change. Saffron has a limited coverage area as it is grown as a ‘niche crop’ and is a recognized “geographical indication,” growing under a narrow microclimatic condition. As such it has become a victim of climate change effects, which has the potential of jeopardizing the livelihood of thousands of farmers and traders associated with it. The paper discusses the potential and actual impact of climate change process on saffron cultivation in Kashmir; and the biotechnological measures to address these issues. PMID:25072266

More homogeneous wind conditions under strong climate change decrease the potential for inter-state balancing of electricity in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohland, Jan; Reyers, Mark; Weber, Juliane; Witthaut, Dirk

2017-11-01

Limiting anthropogenic climate change requires the fast decarbonization of the electricity system. Renewable electricity generation is determined by the weather and is hence subject to climate change. We simulate the operation of a coarse-scale fully renewable European electricity system based on downscaled high-resolution climate data from EURO-CORDEX. Following a high-emission pathway (RCP8.5), we find a robust but modest increase (up to 7 %) of backup energy in Europe through the end of the 21st century. The absolute increase in the backup energy is almost independent of potential grid expansion, leading to the paradoxical effect that relative impacts of climate change increase in a highly interconnected European system. The increase is rooted in more homogeneous wind conditions over Europe resulting in intensified simultaneous generation shortfalls. Individual country contributions to European generation shortfall increase by up to 9 TWh yr-1, reflecting an increase of up to 4 %. Our results are strengthened by comparison with a large CMIP5 ensemble using an approach based on circulation weather types.

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.