Contrasting responses to a climate regime change by sympatric, ice-dependent predators.

PubMed

Younger, Jane L; van den Hoff, John; Wienecke, Barbara; Hindell, Mark; Miller, Karen J

2016-03-15

Models that predict changes in the abundance and distribution of fauna under future climate change scenarios often assume that ecological niche and habitat availability are the major determinants of species' responses to climate change. However, individual species may have very different capacities to adapt to environmental change, as determined by intrinsic factors such as their dispersal ability, genetic diversity, generation time and rate of evolution. These intrinsic factors are usually excluded from forecasts of species' abundance and distribution changes. We aimed to determine the importance of these factors by comparing the impact of the most recent climate regime change, the late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial transition, on two sympatric, ice-dependent meso-predators, the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) and Weddell seal (Leptonychotes weddellii). We reconstructed the population trend of emperor penguins and Weddell seals in East Antarctica over the past 75,000 years using mitochondrial DNA sequences and an extended Bayesian skyline plot method. We also assessed patterns of contemporary population structure and genetic diversity. Despite their overlapping distributions and shared dependence on sea ice, our genetic data revealed very different responses to climate warming between these species. The emperor penguin population grew rapidly following the glacial-interglacial transition, but the size of the Weddell seal population did not change. The expansion of emperor penguin numbers during the warm Holocene may have been facilitated by their higher dispersal ability and gene flow among colonies, and fine-scale differences in preferred foraging locations. The vastly different climate change responses of two sympatric ice-dependent predators suggests that differing adaptive capacities and/or fine-scale niche differences can play a major role in species' climate change responses, and that adaptive capacity should be considered alongside niche and distribution in future species forecasts.

Vulnerability to Climate Change in Rural Saskatchewan: Case Study of the Rural Municipality of Rudy No. 284

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pittman, Jeremy; Wittrock, Virginia; Kulshreshtha, Surendra; Wheaton, Elaine

2011-01-01

With the likelihood of future changes in climate and climate variability, it is important to understand how human systems may be vulnerable. Rural communities in Saskatchewan having agricultural-based economies are particularly dependent on climate and could be among the most vulnerable human systems in Canada. Future changes in climate are likely…

Real options analysis for photovoltaic project under climate uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kyeongseok; Kim, Sejong; Kim, Hyoungkwan

2016-08-01

The decision on photovoltaic project depends on the level of climate environments. Changes in temperature and insolation affect photovoltaic output. It is important for investors to consider future climate conditions for determining investments on photovoltaic projects. We propose a real options-based framework to assess economic feasibility of photovoltaic project under climate change. The framework supports investors to evaluate climate change impact on photovoltaic projects under future climate uncertainty.

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

PubMed Central

Zeebe, Richard E.

2013-01-01

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth’s surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth’s climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000–165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. PMID:23918402

Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

PubMed

Zeebe, Richard E

2013-08-20

Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Climate Risk Assessment: Technical Guidance Manual for DoD Installations and Built Environment

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-06

climate change risks to DoD installations and the built environment. The approach, which we call “decision-scaling,” reveals the core sensitivity of...DoD installations to climate change . It is designed to illuminate the sensitivity of installations and their supporting infrastructure systems...including water and energy, to climate changes and other uncertainties without dependence on climate change projections. In this way the analysis and

Path Dependence of Regional Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrington, Tyler; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2013-04-01

Path dependence of the climate response to CO2 forcing has been investigated from a global mean perspective, with evidence suggesting that long-term global mean temperature and precipitation changes are proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, and independent of emissions pathway. Little research, however, has been done on path dependence of regional climate changes, particularly in areas that could be affected by tipping points. Here, we utilize the UVic Earth System Climate Model version 2.9, an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity. It consists of a 3-dimensional ocean general circulation model, coupled with a dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice model, and a thermodynamic energy-moisture balance model of the atmosphere. This is then coupled with a terrestrial carbon cycle model and an ocean carbon-cycle model containing an inorganic carbon and marine ecosystem component. Model coverage is global with a zonal resolution of 3.6 degrees and meridional resolution of 1.8 degrees. The model is forced with idealized emissions scenarios across five cumulative emission groups (1300 GtC, 2300 GtC, 3300 GtC, 4300 GtC, and 5300 GtC) to explore the path dependence of (and the possibility of hysteresis in) regional climate changes. Emission curves include both fossil carbon emissions and emissions from land use changes, and span a variety of peak and decline scenarios with varying emission rates, as well as overshoot and instantaneous pulse scenarios. Tipping points being explored include those responsible for the disappearance of summer Arctic sea-ice, the irreversible melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet, the collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation, and the dieback of the Amazonian Rainforest. Preliminary results suggest that global mean climate change after cessation of CO2 emissions is independent of the emissions pathway, only varying with total cumulative emissions, in accordance with results from earlier studies. Forthcoming analysis will investigate path dependence of regional climate change. Some evidence exists to support the idea of hysteresis in the Greenland Ice Sheet, and since tipping points represent non-linear elements of the climate system, we suspect that the other tipping points might also show path dependence.

Braking effect of climate and topography on global change-induced upslope forest expansion.

PubMed

Alatalo, Juha M; Ferrarini, Alessandro

2017-03-01

Forests are expected to expand into alpine areas due to global climate change. It has recently been shown that temperature alone cannot realistically explain this process and that upslope tree advance in a warmer scenario may depend on the availability of sites with adequate geomorphic/topographic characteristics. Here, we show that, besides topography (slope and aspect), climate itself can produce a braking effect on the upslope advance of subalpine forests and that tree limit is influenced by non-linear and non-monotonic contributions of the climate variables which act upon treeline upslope advance with varying relative strengths. Our results suggest that global climate change impact on the upslope advance of subalpine forests should be interpreted in a more complex way where climate can both speed up and slow down the process depending on complex patterns of contribution from each climate and non-climate variable.

Developing a model for effects of climate change on human health and health-environment interactions: Heat stress in Austin, Texas - Urban Climate

EPA Science Inventory

Human health and well-being are and will be affected by climate change, both directly through changes in extreme weather events and indirectly through weather-induced changes in human and natural systems. Populations are vulnerable to these changes in varying degrees, depending ...

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

Cultural impacts to tribes from climate change influences on forests

Treesearch

Garrit Voggesser; Kathy Lynn; John Daigle; Frank K. Lake; Darren Ranco

2013-01-01

Climate change related impacts, such as increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, higher temperatures, extreme changes to ecosystem processes, forest conversion and habitat degradation are threatening tribal access to valued resources. Climate change is and will affect the quantity and quality of resources tribes depend upon to perpetuate their cultures and...

Household perceptions of coastal hazards and climate change in the Central Philippines.

PubMed

Combest-Friedman, Chelsea; Christie, Patrick; Miles, Edward

2012-12-15

As a tropical archipelagic nation, the Philippines is particularly susceptible to coastal hazards, which are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. To improve coastal hazard management and adaptation planning, it is imperative that climate information be provided at relevant scales and that decision-makers understand the causes and nature of risk in their constituencies. Focusing on a municipality in the Central Philippines, this study examines local meteorological information and explores household perceptions of climate change and coastal hazard risk. First, meteorological data and local perceptions of changing climate conditions are assessed. Perceived changes in climate include an increase in rainfall and rainfall variability, an increase in intensity and frequency of storm events and sea level rise. Second, factors affecting climate change perceptions and perceived risk from coastal hazards are determined through statistical analysis. Factors tested include social status, economic standing, resource dependency and spatial location. Results indicate that perceived risk to coastal hazards is most affected by households' spatial location and resource dependency, rather than socio-economic conditions. However, important differences exist based on the type of hazard and nature of risk being measured. Resource dependency variables are more significant in determining perceived risk from coastal erosion and sea level rise than flood events. Spatial location is most significant in determining households' perceived risk to their household assets, but not perceived risk to their livelihood. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level, and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-01-01

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3+/-1deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4deg C for a 4 W/sq m CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Forest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics: Chapter 5

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy S.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Capalbo, Susan M.; Houston, Laurie L.; Glick, Patty

2013-01-01

Forests cover about 47% of the Northwest (NW–Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) (Smith et al. 2009, fig. 5.1, table 5.1). The impacts of current and future climate change on NW forest ecosystems are a product of the sensitivities of ecosystem processes to climate and the degree to which humans depend on and interact with those systems. Forest ecosystem structure and function, particularly in relatively unmanaged forests where timber harvest and other land use have smaller effects, is sensitive to climate change because climate has a strong influence on ecosystem processes. Climate can affect forest structure directly through its control of plan physiology and life history (establishment, individual growth, productivity, and morality) or indirectly through its control of disturbance (fire, insects, disease). As climate changes, many forest processes will be affected, altering ecosystem services such as timber production and recreation. These changes have socioeconomic implications (e.g. for timber economies) and will require changes to current management of forests. Climate and management will interact to determine the forests of the future, and the scientific basis for adaptation to climate change in forests thus depends significantly on how forests will be affected.

Stability of the Martian climate system under the seasonal change condition of solar radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Takasumi; Tajika, Eiichi

2002-11-01

Previous studies on stability of the Martian climate system used essentially zero-dimensional energy balance climate models (EBMs) under the condition of annual mean solar radiation income. However, areal extent of polar ice caps should affect the Martian climate through the energy balance and the CO2 budget, and results under the seasonal change condition of solar radiation will be different from those under the annual mean condition. We therefore construct a one-dimensional energy balance climate model with CO2-dependent outgoing radiation, seasonal changes of solar radiation income, changes of areal extent of CO2 ice caps, and adsorption of CO2 by regolith. We have investigated behaviors of the Martian climate system and, in particular, examined the effect of the seasonal changes of solar radiation by comparing the results of previous studies under the condition of annual mean solar radiation. One of the major discrepancies between them is the condition for multiple solutions of the Martian climate system. Although the Martian climate system always has multiple solutions under the annual mean condition, under the seasonal change condition, existence of multiple solutions depends on the present amounts of CO2 in the ice caps and the regolith.

Potential effects of climate change on inland glacial lakes and implications for lake-dependent biota in Wisconsin: final report April 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Walker, John F.; Kenow, Kevin P.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Garrison, Paul J.; Hanson, Paul C.; Hunt, Randall J.

2013-01-01

F statewide, and an increase in precipitation of 1”–2”. However, summer precipitation in the northern part of the state is expected to be less and winter precipitation will be greater. By the end of the 21st century, the magnitude of changes in temperature and precipitation are expected to intensify. Such climatic changes have altered, and would further alter hydrological, chemical, and physical properties of inland lakes. Lake-dependent wildlife sensitive to changes in water quality, are particularly susceptible to lake quality-associated habitat changes and are likely to suffer restrictions to current breeding distributions under some climate change scenarios. We have selected the common loon (Gavia immer) to serve as a sentinel lake-dependent piscivorous species to be used in the development of a template for linking primary lake-dependent biota endpoints (e.g., decline in productivity and/or breeding range contraction) to important lake quality indicators. In the current project, we evaluate how changes in freshwater habitat quality (specifically lake clarity) may impact common loon lake occupancy in Wisconsin under detailed climate-change scenarios. In addition, we employ simple land-use/land cover and habitat scenarios to illustrate the potential interaction of climate and land-use/land cover effects. The methods employed here provide a template for studies where integration of physical and biotic models is used to project future conditions under various climate and land use change scenarios. Findings presented here project the future conditions of lakes and loons within an important watershed in northern Wisconsin – of importance to water resource managers and state citizens alike.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on the Water-Energy Nexus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mo, W.; Jacobs, J. M.

2014-12-01

Water-energy nexus refers to the fact that a lot of energy is used for treating and delivering water, and a large amount of water is needed for energy production. This interrelation reinforces water and energy consumptions and challenges the sustainable management of both resources in light of growing population, developing economy, and dwindling resources. Climate change often exacerbates the negative effects of the water-energy nexus by intervening water and energy allocation, availability, and quality, forcing communities to seek more energy dependent alternative water sources and/or more water dependent alternative energy sources. The climate-water-energy interrelations play an important role in water and energy management, yet our understandings on the interactions between climate and the water-energy nexus are still very limited. Therefore, this study aims at qualitatively and quantitatively assessing the impacts of climate change from the water-energy nexus perspective by investigating previous literatures, case studies, climate change patterns, and recent extreme climate events. Management difficulties resulted from climate related source shifts as well as policy and regulation changes will be illustrated and discussed. Research needs and gaps on the climate-water-energy interrelations will be addressed.

Climate change and children.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Paulson, Jerome A

2007-04-01

Climate change is increasing the burden of climate-sensitive health determinants and outcomes worldwide. Acting through increasing temperature, changes in the hydrologic cycle, and sea level rise, climate change is projected to increase the frequency and intensity of heat events and extreme events (floods and droughts), change the geographic range and incidence of climate-sensitive vector-, food-, and waterborne diseases, and increase diseases associated with air pollution and aeroallergens. Children are particularly vulnerable to these health outcomes because of their potentially greater exposures, greater sensitivity to certain exposures, and their dependence on caregivers.

Climate change and disaster management.

PubMed

O'Brien, Geoff; O'Keefe, Phil; Rose, Joanne; Wisner, Ben

2006-03-01

Climate change, although a natural phenomenon, is accelerated by human activities. Disaster policy response to climate change is dependent on a number of factors, such as readiness to accept the reality of climate change, institutions and capacity, as well as willingness to embed climate change risk assessment and management in development strategies. These conditions do not yet exist universally. A focus that neglects to enhance capacity-building and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks. Reducing vulnerability is a key aspect of reducing climate change risk. To do so requires a new approach to climate change risk and a change in institutional structures and relationships. A focus on development that neglects to enhance governance and resilience as a prerequisite for managing climate change risks will, in all likelihood, do little to reduce vulnerability to those risks.

Causal Chains Arising from Climate Change in Mountain Regions: the Core Program of the Mountain Research Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Greenwood, G. B.

2014-12-01

Mountains are a widespread terrestrial feature, covering from 12 to 24 percent of the world's terrestrial surface, depending of the definition. Topographic relief is central to the definition of mountains, to the benefits and costs accruing to society and to the cascade of changes expected from climate change. Mountains capture and store water, particularly important in arid regions and in all areas for energy production. In temperate and boreal regions, mountains have a great range in population densities, from empty to urban, while tropical mountains are often densely settled and farmed. Mountain regions contain a wide range of habitats, important for biodiversity, and for primary, secondary and tertiary sectors of the economy. Climate change interacts with this relief and consequent diversity. Elevation itself may accentuate warming (elevationi dependent warming) in some mountain regions. Even average warming starts complex chains of causality that reverberate through the diverse social ecological mountain systems affecting both the highlands and adjacent lowlands. A single feature of climate change such as higher snow lines affect the climate through albedo, the water cycle through changes in timing of release , water quality through the weathering of newly exposed material, geomorphology through enhanced erosion, plant communities through changes in climatic water balance, and animal and human communities through changes in habitat conditions and resource availabilities. Understanding these causal changes presents a particular interdisciplinary challenge to researchers, from assessing the existence and magnitude of elevation dependent warming and monitoring the full suite of changes within the social ecological system to climate change, to understanding how social ecological systems respond through individual and institutional behavior with repercussions on the long-term sustainability of these systems.

Farm Level Adaptation to Climate Change: The Case of Farmer's in the Ethiopian Highlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

2013-07-01

In Ethiopia, climate change and associated risks are expected to have serious consequences for agriculture and food security. This in turn will seriously impact on the welfare of the people, particularly the rural farmers whose main livelihood depends on rain-fed agriculture. The level of impacts will mainly depend on the awareness and the level of adaptation in response to the changing climate. It is thus important to understand the role of the different factors that influence farmers' adaptation to ensure the development of appropriate policy measures and the design of successful development projects. This study examines farmers' perception of change in climatic attributes and the factors that influence farmers' choice of adaptation measures to climate change and variability. The estimated results from the climate change adaptation models indicate that level of education, age and wealth of the head of the household; access to credit and agricultural services; information on climate, and temperature all influence farmers' choices of adaptation. Moreover, lack of information on adaptation measures and lack of finance are seen as the main factors inhibiting adaptation to climate change. These conclusions were obtained with a Multinomial logit model, employing the results from a survey of 400 smallholder farmers in three districts in Tigray, northern Ethiopian.

Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

PubMed

Chadwick, Amy E

2016-01-01

Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.

The impacts of climate change on tribal traditional foods

Treesearch

Kathy Lynn; John Daigle; Jennie Hoffman; Frank Lake; Natalie Michelle; Darren Ranco; Carson Viles; Garrit Voggesser; Paul Williams

2013-01-01

American Indian and Alaska Native tribes are uniquely affected by climate change. Indigenous peoples have depended on a wide variety of native fungi, plant and animal species for food, medicine, ceremonies, community and economic health for countless generations. Climate change stands to impact the species and ecosystems that constitute tribal traditional foods that...

Capturing subregional variability in regional-scale climate change vulnerability assessments of natural resources

Treesearch

Polly C. Buotte; David L. Peterson; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jeffrey A. Hicke

2016-01-01

Natural resource vulnerability to climate change can depend on the climatology and ecological conditions at a particular site. Here we present a conceptual framework for incorporating spatial variability in natural resource vulnerability to climate change in a regional-scale assessment. The framework was implemented in the first regional-scale vulnerability...

COASTAL ZONES, A REPORT OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGIONAL ASSESSMENT TEAM FOR THE GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

Impacts of climate change on coastal areas can be expected to have a regional signature that depends on the local climate change and the local geomorphological, biogeochemical, ecological and social factors that affect the sensitivity to climate. Here we present an assessment of...

Seventh Graders' Ways of Reasoning in Evaluating and Generating Arguments about Climate Change Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Choi, Soyoung

2011-01-01

The present study explored how seventh graders develop their understanding of climate change issues. Particularly, I focused on identifying students' ways of reasoning in evaluating and generating arguments. I also investigated whether students reason differently about climate change issues depending on the relevance of the issues to their daily…

Climate Change Indicators: Health and Society

MedlinePlus

... of the ways that climate change is affecting human health and society, including changes in Lyme disease, West ... season across the United States. Because impacts on human health are complex, often indirect, and dependent on multiple ...

Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

2015-12-01

It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is therefore imperative to improve our understanding on how climate change may induce a chain of impacts. Our study is a first step toward this goal by mapping out climate risks and their cause-effect relationships based on current literature.

The Fate of Amazonian Ecosystems over the Coming Century Arising from Changes in Climate, Atmospheric CO2 and Land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moorcroft, P. R.; Zhang, K.; Castanho, A. D. D. A.; Galbraith, D.; Moghim, S.; Levine, N. M.; Bras, R. L.; Coe, M. T.; Costa, M. H.; Malhi, Y.; Longo, M.; Knox, R. G.; McKnight, S. L.; Wang, J.

2014-12-01

There is considerable interest and uncertainty regarding the expected fate of the Amazon over the coming century in face of the combined impacts of climate change, rising atmospheric CO2 levels, and on-going land transformation in the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under projected climate, CO2 and land-use change in the 21st century using three state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) driven by three representative, bias-corrected GCM climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under the SRES A2 scenario, coupled with two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change depend strongly on the direction and severity of projected changes in precipitation regimes within the region: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%; however, the models predict that CO2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and as a result sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and changes in fire frequency are predicted cause additional aboveground live biomass loss and changes in forest extent. The relative impact of land-use and fire dynamics versus the impacts of climate and CO2 on the Amazon varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenarios used and on the terrestrial biosphere model, highlighting the importance of improved understanding of all four factors -- future climate, CO2 fertilization effects, fire and land-use -- to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century.

Effects of climate change and seed dispersal on airborne ragweed pollen loads in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Vautard, Robert; Liu, Li; Solmon, Fabien; Viovy, Nicolas; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Essl, Franz; Chuine, Isabelle; Colette, Augustin; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Schaffhauser, Alice; Storkey, Jonathan; Thibaudon, Michel; Epstein, Michelle M.

2015-08-01

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) is an invasive alien species in Europe producing pollen that causes severe allergic disease in susceptible individuals. Ragweed plants could further invade European land with climate and land-use changes. However, airborne pollen evolution depends not only on plant invasion, but also on pollen production, release and atmospheric dispersion changes. To predict the effect of climate and land-use changes on airborne pollen concentrations, we used two comprehensive modelling frameworks accounting for all these factors under high-end and moderate climate and land-use change scenarios. We estimate that by 2050 airborne ragweed pollen concentrations will be about 4 times higher than they are now, with a range of uncertainty from 2 to 12 largely depending on the seed dispersal rate assumptions. About a third of the airborne pollen increase is due to on-going seed dispersal, irrespective of climate change. The remaining two-thirds are related to climate and land-use changes that will extend ragweed habitat suitability in northern and eastern Europe and increase pollen production in established ragweed areas owing to increasing CO2. Therefore, climate change and ragweed seed dispersal in current and future suitable areas will increase airborne pollen concentrations, which may consequently heighten the incidence and prevalence of ragweed allergy.

Climate change alters the optimal wind-dependent flight routes of an avian migrant

PubMed Central

Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M.; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

2017-01-01

Migratory birds can be adversely affected by climate change as they encounter its geographically uneven impacts in various stages of their life cycle. While a wealth of research is devoted to the impacts of climate change on distribution range and phenology of migratory birds, the indirect effects of climate change on optimal migratory routes and flyways, through changes in air movements, are poorly understood. Here, we predict the influence of climate change on the migratory route of a long-distant migrant using an ensemble of correlative modelling approaches, and present and future atmospheric data obtained from a regional climate model. We show that changes in wind conditions by mid-century will result in a slight shift and reduction in the suitable areas for migration of the study species, the Oriental honey-buzzard, over a critical section of its autumn journey, followed by a complete loss of this section of the traditional route by late century. Our results highlight the need for investigating the consequences of climate change-induced disturbance in wind support for long-distance migratory birds, particularly species that depend on the wind to cross ecological barriers, and those that will be exposed to longer journeys due to future range shifts. PMID:28469028

Climate change alters the optimal wind-dependent flight routes of an avian migrant.

PubMed

Nourani, Elham; Yamaguchi, Noriyuki M; Higuchi, Hiroyoshi

2017-05-17

Migratory birds can be adversely affected by climate change as they encounter its geographically uneven impacts in various stages of their life cycle. While a wealth of research is devoted to the impacts of climate change on distribution range and phenology of migratory birds, the indirect effects of climate change on optimal migratory routes and flyways, through changes in air movements, are poorly understood. Here, we predict the influence of climate change on the migratory route of a long-distant migrant using an ensemble of correlative modelling approaches, and present and future atmospheric data obtained from a regional climate model. We show that changes in wind conditions by mid-century will result in a slight shift and reduction in the suitable areas for migration of the study species, the Oriental honey-buzzard, over a critical section of its autumn journey, followed by a complete loss of this section of the traditional route by late century. Our results highlight the need for investigating the consequences of climate change-induced disturbance in wind support for long-distance migratory birds, particularly species that depend on the wind to cross ecological barriers, and those that will be exposed to longer journeys due to future range shifts. © 2017 The Author(s).

Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low-latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology.

PubMed

Butt, Nathalie; Seabrook, Leonie; Maron, Martine; Law, Bradley S; Dawson, Terence P; Syktus, Jozef; McAlpine, Clive A

2015-09-01

Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species of such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and flora has not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long-lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed dispersal ecology, and demands a focused research effort. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide

PubMed Central

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-01-01

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3–4°C for a 4 W m−2 CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change. PMID:24043864

Climate sensitivity, sea level and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Russell, Gary; Kharecha, Pushker

2013-10-28

Cenozoic temperature, sea level and CO2 covariations provide insights into climate sensitivity to external forcings and sea-level sensitivity to climate change. Climate sensitivity depends on the initial climate state, but potentially can be accurately inferred from precise palaeoclimate data. Pleistocene climate oscillations yield a fast-feedback climate sensitivity of 3±1(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing if Holocene warming relative to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is used as calibration, but the error (uncertainty) is substantial and partly subjective because of poorly defined LGM global temperature and possible human influences in the Holocene. Glacial-to-interglacial climate change leading to the prior (Eemian) interglacial is less ambiguous and implies a sensitivity in the upper part of the above range, i.e. 3-4(°)C for a 4 W m(-2) CO2 forcing. Slow feedbacks, especially change of ice sheet size and atmospheric CO2, amplify the total Earth system sensitivity by an amount that depends on the time scale considered. Ice sheet response time is poorly defined, but we show that the slow response and hysteresis in prevailing ice sheet models are exaggerated. We use a global model, simplified to essential processes, to investigate state dependence of climate sensitivity, finding an increased sensitivity towards warmer climates, as low cloud cover is diminished and increased water vapour elevates the tropopause. Burning all fossil fuels, we conclude, would make most of the planet uninhabitable by humans, thus calling into question strategies that emphasize adaptation to climate change.

Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Tourism-Dependent Communities in the Great Lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chin, N.; Day, J.; Sydnor, S.; Cherkauer, K. A.

2013-12-01

Tourism is an essential element of the Laurentian Great Lakes economy as well as one of the sectors expected to be affected most by climate change, particularly through extreme weather events. While studies looking at climate change impacts on the Great Lakes tourism, specifically, are limited, the results of other studies suggest that both summer tourism activities, such as beach-going, and winter tourism activities, such as skiing and snowboarding, could feel the effects of a changing climate. The purpose of this study was to determine how existing data and models might be used to predict the potential impacts of climate change on tourism-dependent communities at the local scale. Future climate projections and variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model simulations based on historical climate data were used to quantify trends in environmental metrics with a potential influence on tourism for several tourism-dependent Great Lakes communities. The results of this research show that the potential impacts of climate change vary at the local scale and could require different adaptation strategies for different communities and for different sectors of the tourism industry. For example, communities in the northern parts of the Great Lakes may find benefit in a greater diversification of their tourism industries, given that warming temperatures could be beneficial for summer tourism activities, while communities in the southern parts of the Great Lakes may have to find other ways to cope with climate conditions that are less conducive to summer tourism activities. Stakeholder input could also help inform the process of producing scientific information that is useful to policymakers when it comes to tourism sector-related decision making.

Updating beliefs and combining evidence in adaptive forest management under climate change: a case study of Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) in the Black Forest, Germany.

PubMed

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Bugmann, Harald; Elkin, Che; Hanewinkel, Marc; Meilby, Henrik; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

2013-06-15

We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even-aged Norway spruce (Picea abies L. Karst) forest in the Black Forest, Germany. We simulated forest development under a range of climate change scenarios and forest management alternatives. Our analysis used Bayesian updating and Dempster's rule of combination to simulate how observations of climate and forest variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation is superior for updating beliefs and supporting decision-making. However, with little conflict among information sources, the strongest evidence would be offered by a combination of at least two informative variables, e.g., temperature and precipitation. The success of adaptive forest management depends on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forced Climate Changes in West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific by Northern Hemisphere Ice Sheet Topography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, T. R.; Roberts, W. H. G.; Steig, E. J.; Cuffey, K. M.; Markle, B. R.; White, J. W. C.

2017-12-01

The behavior of the Indo-Pacific climate system across the last deglaciation is widely debated. Resolving these debates requires long term and continuous climate proxy records. Here, we use an ultra-high resolution and continuous water isotope record from an ice core in the Pacific sector of West Antarctica. In conjunction with the HadCM3 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM, we demonstrate that the climate of both West Antarctica and the Indo-Pacific were substantially altered during the last deglaciation by the same forcing mechanism. Critically, these changes are not dependent on ENSO strength, but rather the location of deep tropical convection, which shifts at 16 ka in response to climate perturbations induced by the Laurentide Ice Sheet. The changed rainfall patterns in the tropics explain the deglacial shift from expanded-grasslands to rainforest-dominated ecosystems in Indonesia. High-frequency climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is also changed, through a tropical Pacific teleconnection link dependent on the propogration of Rossby Waves.

Changing crops in response to climate: virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation

PubMed Central

Malanson, George P.; Verdery, Ashton M.; Walsh, Stephen J.; Sawangdee, Yothin; Heumann, Benjamin W.; McDaniel, Philip M.; Frizzelle, Brian G.; Williams, Nathalie E.; Yao, Xiaozheng; Entwisle, Barbara; Rindfuss, Ronald R.

2014-01-01

The effects of extended climatic variability on agricultural land use were explored for the type of system found in villages of northeastern Thailand. An agent based model developed for the Nang Rong district was used to simulate land allotted to jasmine rice, heavy rice, cassava, and sugar cane. The land use choices in the model depended on likely economic outcomes, but included elements of bounded rationality in dependence on household demography. The socioeconomic dynamics are endogenous in the system, and climate changes were added as exogenous drivers. Villages changed their agricultural effort in many different ways. Most villages reduced the amount of land under cultivation, primarily with reduction in jasmine rice, but others did not. The variation in responses to climate change indicates potential sensitivity to initial conditions and path dependence for this type of system. The differences between our virtual villages and the real villages of the region indicate effects of bounded rationality and limits on model applications. PMID:25061240

Climate change and bark beetles of the western United States and Canada: Direct and indirect effects

Treesearch

Barbara J. Bentz; Jacques Regniere; Christopher J. Fettig; E. Matthew Hansen; Jane L. Hayes; Jeffrey A. Hicke; Rick G. Kelsey; Jose F. Negron; Steven J. Seybold

2010-01-01

Climatic changes are predicted to significantly affect the frequency and severity of disturbances that shape forest ecosystems. We provide a synthesis of climate change effects on native bark beetles, important mortality agents of conifers in western North America. Because of differences in temperature-dependent life-history strategies, including cold-induced mortality...

Traditional forest-related knowledge and climate change

Treesearch

John A. Parrotta; Mauro Agnoletti

2012-01-01

The holders and users of traditional forest-related knowledge are on the front lines of global efforts to deal with climate change and its impacts. Because of their close connection with, and high dependence on, forest ecosystems and landscapes, indigenous and local communities are among the fi rst to witness, understand, and experience the impacts of climate change on...

Effects of climate change on wildlife in the Northern Rockies [Chapter 8

Treesearch

Kevin S. McKelvey; Polly C. Buotte

2018-01-01

Few data exist on the direct effects of climatic variability and change on animal species. Therefore, projected climate change effects must be inferred from what is known about habitat characteristics and the autecology of each species. Habitat for mammals, including predators (Canada lynx, fisher, wolverine) and prey (snowshoe hare) that depend on high-elevation,...

Greenhouse gas scenario sensitivity and uncertainties in precipitation projections for central Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Uytven, E.; Willems, P.

2018-03-01

Climate change impact assessment on meteorological variables involves large uncertainties as a result of incomplete knowledge on the future greenhouse gas concentrations and climate model physics, next to the inherent internal variability of the climate system. Given that the alteration in greenhouse gas concentrations is the driver for the change, one expects the impacts to be highly dependent on the considered greenhouse gas scenario (GHS). In this study, we denote this behavior as GHS sensitivity. Due to the climate model related uncertainties, this sensitivity is, at local scale, not always that strong as expected. This paper aims to study the GHS sensitivity and its contributing role to climate scenarios for a case study in Belgium. An ensemble of 160 CMIP5 climate model runs is considered and climate change signals are studied for precipitation accumulation, daily precipitation intensities and wet day frequencies. This was done for the different seasons of the year and the scenario periods 2011-2040, 2031-2060, 2051-2081 and 2071-2100. By means of variance decomposition, the total variance in the climate change signals was separated in the contribution of the differences in GHSs and the other model-related uncertainty sources. These contributions were found dependent on the variable and season. Following the time of emergence concept, the GHS uncertainty contribution is found dependent on the time horizon and increases over time. For the most distinct time horizon (2071-2100), the climate model uncertainty accounts for the largest uncertainty contribution. The GHS differences explain up to 18% of the total variance in the climate change signals. The results point further at the importance of the climate model ensemble design, specifically the ensemble size and the combination of climate models, whereupon climate scenarios are based. The numerical noise, introduced at scales smaller than the skillful scale, e.g. at local scale, was not considered in this study.

Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects.

PubMed

Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa A; Campany, Courtney E; Classen, Aimee T

2010-03-01

Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to atmospheric and climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the soil communities that depend on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and precipitation in Tennessee (USA). Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils) and beneath dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: (1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activity, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate-change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in our study, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water. (2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning, and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate-change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. These results indicate that accurate assessments of climate-change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate-change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct impact of atmospheric and climate change on soil ecosystem functioning, and hence, these indirect effects should be taken into account when predicting the manner in which global change will alter ecosystem functioning.

The lesser known challenge of climate change: thermal variance and sex-reversal in vertebrates with temperature-dependent sex determination.

PubMed

Neuwald, Jennifer L; Valenzuela, Nicole

2011-03-23

Climate change is expected to disrupt biological systems. Particularly susceptible are species with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), as in many reptiles. While the potentially devastating effect of rising mean temperatures on sex ratios in TSD species is appreciated, the consequences of increased thermal variance predicted to accompany climate change remain obscure. Surprisingly, no study has tested if the effect of thermal variance around high-temperatures (which are particularly relevant given climate change predictions) has the same or opposite effects as around lower temperatures. Here we show that sex ratios of the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) were reversed as fluctuations increased around low and high unisexual mean-temperatures. Unexpectedly, the developmental and sexual responses around female-producing temperatures were decoupled in a more complex manner than around male-producing values. Our novel observations are not fully explained by existing ecological models of development and sex determination, and provide strong evidence that thermal fluctuations are critical for shaping the biological outcomes of climate change.

Climate change and forest communities: prospects for building institutional adaptive capacity in the Congo Basin forests.

PubMed

Brown, H Carolyn Peach; Smit, Barry; Somorin, Olufunso A; Sonwa, Denis J; Nkem, Johnson Ndi

2014-10-01

Tropical forests are vulnerable to climate-change representing a risk for indigenous peoples and forest-dependent communities. Mechanisms to conserve the forest, such as REDD+, could assist in the mitigation of climate change, reduce vulnerability, and enable people to adapt. Ninety-eight interviews were conducted in three countries containing the Congo Basin forest, Cameroon, CAR, and DRC, to investigate perceptions of decision-makers within, and responses of the institutions of the state, private sector, and civil society to the challenges of climate change. Results indicate that while decision-makers' awareness of climate change is high, direct institutional action is at an early stage. Adaptive capacity is currently low, but it could be enhanced with further development of institutional linkages and increased coordination of multilevel responses across all institutions and with local people. It is important to build networks with forest-dependent stakeholders at the local level, who can contribute knowledge that will build overall institutional adaptive capacity.

Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Fernández, Cristina

2015-04-01

The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation and adaptation are therefore complementary actions. In the long term, climate change without mitigation measures will likely exceed the adaptive capacity of natural, managed and human systems. Early adoption of mitigation measures would break the dependence on carbon-intensive infrastructures and reduce adaptation needs to climate change. It also can save on adaptation cost. Therefore mitigation is the key objective of the global warming problem but little is being done in this field. We will present some proposals of "preventive economically efficient" policies at a global and regional level which will constitute the complement to the adaptation aspect.

Interactive effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystem functioning.

PubMed

Pires, Aliny P F; Srivastava, Diane S; Marino, Nicholas A C; MacDonald, A Andrew M; Figueiredo-Barros, Marcos Paulo; Farjalla, Vinicius F

2018-05-01

Climate change and biodiversity loss are expected to simultaneously affect ecosystems, however research on how each driver mediates the effect of the other has been limited in scope. The multiple stressor framework emphasizes non-additive effects, but biodiversity may also buffer the effects of climate change, and climate change may alter which mechanisms underlie biodiversity-function relationships. Here, we performed an experiment using tank bromeliad ecosystems to test the various ways that rainfall changes and litter diversity may jointly determine ecological processes. Litter diversity and rainfall changes interactively affected multiple functions, but how depends on the process measured. High litter diversity buffered the effects of altered rainfall on detritivore communities, evidence of insurance against impacts of climate change. Altered rainfall affected the mechanisms by which litter diversity influenced decomposition, reducing the importance of complementary attributes of species (complementarity effects), and resulting in an increasing dependence on the maintenance of specific species (dominance effects). Finally, altered rainfall conditions prevented litter diversity from fueling methanogenesis, because such changes in rainfall reduced microbial activity by 58%. Together, these results demonstrate that the effects of climate change and biodiversity loss on ecosystems cannot be understood in isolation and interactions between these stressors can be multifaceted. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Direct effects dominate responses to climate perturbations in grassland plant communities.

PubMed

Chu, Chengjin; Kleinhesselink, Andrew R; Havstad, Kris M; McClaran, Mitchel P; Peters, Debra P; Vermeire, Lance T; Wei, Haiyan; Adler, Peter B

2016-06-08

Theory predicts that strong indirect effects of environmental change will impact communities when niche differences between competitors are small and variation in the direct effects experienced by competitors is large, but empirical tests are lacking. Here we estimate negative frequency dependence, a proxy for niche differences, and quantify the direct and indirect effects of climate change on each species. Consistent with theory, in four of five communities indirect effects are strongest for species showing weak negative frequency dependence. Indirect effects are also stronger in communities where there is greater variation in direct effects. Overall responses to climate perturbations are driven primarily by direct effects, suggesting that single species models may be adequate for forecasting the impacts of climate change in these communities.

Modeling the effects of weather and climate change on malaria transmission.

PubMed

Parham, Paul Edward; Michael, Edwin

2010-05-01

In recent years, the impact of climate change on human health has attracted considerable attention; the effects on malaria have been of particular interest because of its disease burden and its transmission sensitivity to environmental conditions. We investigated and illustrated the role that dynamic process-based mathematical models can play in providing strategic insights into the effects of climate change on malaria transmission. We evaluated a relatively simple model that permitted valuable and novel insights into the simultaneous effects of rainfall and temperature on mosquito population dynamics, malaria invasion, persistence and local seasonal extinction, and the impact of seasonality on transmission. We illustrated how large-scale climate simulations and infectious disease systems may be modeled and analyzed and how these methods may be applied to predicting changes in the basic reproduction number of malaria across Tanzania. We found extinction to be more strongly dependent on rainfall than on temperature and identified a temperature window of around 32-33 degrees C where endemic transmission and the rate of spread in disease-free regions is optimized. This window was the same for Plasmodium falciparum and P. vivax, but mosquito density played a stronger role in driving the rate of malaria spread than did the Plasmodium species. The results improved our understanding of how temperature shifts affect the global distribution of at-risk regions, as well as how rapidly malaria outbreaks take off within vulnerable populations. Disease emergence, extinction, and transmission all depend strongly on climate. Mathematical models offer powerful tools for understanding geographic shifts in incidence as climate changes. Nonlinear dependences of transmission on climate necessitates consideration of both changing climate trends and variability across time scales of interest.

Vulnerability assessment of skiing-dependent businesses to the effects of climate change in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reynolds, David Michael

This qualitative study examines the potential positive and negative socio-economic impacts that may emerge from the long-term effects of climate change on skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper National Parks, Canada. My goal was to determine whether or not skiing-related tourism in the parks in the 2020s and 2050s is more or less socio-economically vulnerable to the effects of climate change on snow cover, temperatures and ski season length at ski resorts in the parks. My study explored the level of awareness and personal perceptions of 60 skiing-dependent business managers about how the impact of climate change on ski resorts may influence future socio-economics of ski tourism businesses. I employed a vulnerability assessment approach and adopted some elements of grounded theory. My primary data sources are interviews with managers and the outcome of the geographical factors index (GFI). Supporting methods include: an analysis and interpretation of climate model data and an interpretation of the economic analysis of skiing in the parks. The interview data were sorted and coded to establish concepts and findings by interview questions, while the GFI model rated and ranked 24 regional ski resorts in the Canadian Cordillera. The findings answered the research questions and helped me conclude what the future socio-economic vulnerability may be of skiing-dependent businesses in the parks. The interviews revealed that managers are not informed about climate change and they have not seen any urgency to consider the effects on business. The GFI revealed that the ski resorts in the parks ranked in the top ten of 24 ski resorts in the Cordillera based on 14 common geographical factors. The economic reports suggest skiing is the foundation of the winter economy in the parks and any impact on skiing would directly impact other skiing-dependent businesses. Research indicates that the effects of climate change may have less economic impact on skiing-dependent businesses in Banff and Jasper in the 2020s and 2050s compared with other ski resorts located in the Cordillera. Recommendations are provided to explore future research opportunities and for skiing-dependent businesses and government organizations.

Climate Change Made Simple

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shallcross, Dudley E.; Harrison, Tim G.

2007-01-01

The newly revised specifications for GCSE science involve greater consideration of climate change. This topic appears in either the chemistry or biology section, depending on the examination board, and is a good example of "How Science Works." It is therefore timely that students are given an opportunity to conduct some simple climate modelling.…

Mitigation, adaptation, and climate change: results from recent research on US timber markets.

Treesearch

Brent Sohngen; Ralph Alig

2000-01-01

This paper reviews recent studies that have addressed how US timber markets may adapt to climate change, and how US forests could be used to mitigate potential climate change. The studies are discussed in light of the ecological and economic assumptions used to estimate adaptation. Estimates of both economic impacts and carbon sequestration costs depend heavily on the...

Influence of ecohydrologic feedbacks from simulated crop growth on integrated regional hydrologic simulations under climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Walsum, P. E. V.; Supit, I.

2012-06-01

Hydrologic climate change modelling is hampered by climate-dependent model parameterizations. To reduce this dependency, we extended the regional hydrologic modelling framework SIMGRO to host a two-way coupling between the soil moisture model MetaSWAP and the crop growth simulation model WOFOST, accounting for ecohydrologic feedbacks in terms of radiation fraction that reaches the soil, crop coefficient, interception fraction of rainfall, interception storage capacity, and root zone depth. Except for the last, these feedbacks are dependent on the leaf area index (LAI). The influence of regional groundwater on crop growth is included via a coupling to MODFLOW. Two versions of the MetaSWAP-WOFOST coupling were set up: one with exogenous vegetation parameters, the "static" model, and one with endogenous crop growth simulation, the "dynamic" model. Parameterization of the static and dynamic models ensured that for the current climate the simulated long-term averages of actual evapotranspiration are the same for both models. Simulations were made for two climate scenarios and two crops: grass and potato. In the dynamic model, higher temperatures in a warm year under the current climate resulted in accelerated crop development, and in the case of potato a shorter growing season, thus partly avoiding the late summer heat. The static model has a higher potential transpiration; depending on the available soil moisture, this translates to a higher actual transpiration. This difference between static and dynamic models is enlarged by climate change in combination with higher CO2 concentrations. Including the dynamic crop simulation gives for potato (and other annual arable land crops) systematically higher effects on the predicted recharge change due to climate change. Crop yields from soils with poor water retention capacities strongly depend on capillary rise if moisture supply from other sources is limited. Thus, including a crop simulation model in an integrated hydrologic simulation provides a valuable addition for hydrologic modelling as well as for crop modelling.

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas-fir

Treesearch

Kevin Ford; Connie Harrington; Sheel Bansal; Peter J. Gould; Brad St. Clair

2016-01-01

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm...

Selection of climate change scenario data for impact modelling.

PubMed

Sloth Madsen, M; Maule, C Fox; MacKellar, N; Olesen, J E; Christensen, J Hesselbjerg

2012-01-01

Impact models investigating climate change effects on food safety often need detailed climate data. The aim of this study was to select climate change projection data for selected crop phenology and mycotoxin impact models. Using the ENSEMBLES database of climate model output, this study illustrates how the projected climate change signal of important variables as temperature, precipitation and relative humidity depends on the choice of the climate model. Using climate change projections from at least two different climate models is recommended to account for model uncertainty. To make the climate projections suitable for impact analysis at the local scale a weather generator approach was adopted. As the weather generator did not treat all the necessary variables, an ad-hoc statistical method was developed to synthesise realistic values of missing variables. The method is presented in this paper, applied to relative humidity, but it could be adopted to other variables if needed.

The Climate Science Special Report: Arctic Changes and their Effect on Alaska and the Rest of the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, P. C.

2017-12-01

Rapid and visible climate change is happening across the Arctic, outpacing global change. Annual average near-surface air temperatures across the Arctic are increasing at more than twice the rate of global average surface temperature. In addition to surface temperature, all components of the Arctic climate system are responding in kind, including sea ice, mountain glaciers and the Greenland Ice sheet, snow cover, and permafrost. Many of these changes with a discernable anthropogenic imprint. While Arctic climate change may seem physically remote to those living in other regions of the planet, Arctic climate change can affect the global climate influencing sea level, the carbon cycle, and potentially atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. As an Arctic nation, United States' adaptation, mitigation, and policy decisions depend on projections of future Alaskan and Arctic climate. This chapter of the Climate Science Special Report documents significant scientific progress and knowledge about how the Alaskan and Arctic climate has changed and will continue to change.

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T. Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N.; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T.; Mori, Akira S.; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Polley, H. Wayne; Reich, Peter B.; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W.; Smith, Melinda D.; Thakur, Madhav P.; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F.; van der Putten, Wim H.; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W.; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico

2015-10-01

It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

Biodiversity increases the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate extremes.

PubMed

Isbell, Forest; Craven, Dylan; Connolly, John; Loreau, Michel; Schmid, Bernhard; Beierkuhnlein, Carl; Bezemer, T Martijn; Bonin, Catherine; Bruelheide, Helge; de Luca, Enrica; Ebeling, Anne; Griffin, John N; Guo, Qinfeng; Hautier, Yann; Hector, Andy; Jentsch, Anke; Kreyling, Jürgen; Lanta, Vojtěch; Manning, Pete; Meyer, Sebastian T; Mori, Akira S; Naeem, Shahid; Niklaus, Pascal A; Polley, H Wayne; Reich, Peter B; Roscher, Christiane; Seabloom, Eric W; Smith, Melinda D; Thakur, Madhav P; Tilman, David; Tracy, Benjamin F; van der Putten, Wim H; van Ruijven, Jasper; Weigelt, Alexandra; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Wilsey, Brian; Eisenhauer, Nico

2015-10-22

It remains unclear whether biodiversity buffers ecosystems against climate extremes, which are becoming increasingly frequent worldwide. Early results suggested that the ecosystem productivity of diverse grassland plant communities was more resistant, changing less during drought, and more resilient, recovering more quickly after drought, than that of depauperate communities. However, subsequent experimental tests produced mixed results. Here we use data from 46 experiments that manipulated grassland plant diversity to test whether biodiversity provides resistance during and resilience after climate events. We show that biodiversity increased ecosystem resistance for a broad range of climate events, including wet or dry, moderate or extreme, and brief or prolonged events. Across all studies and climate events, the productivity of low-diversity communities with one or two species changed by approximately 50% during climate events, whereas that of high-diversity communities with 16-32 species was more resistant, changing by only approximately 25%. By a year after each climate event, ecosystem productivity had often fully recovered, or overshot, normal levels of productivity in both high- and low-diversity communities, leading to no detectable dependence of ecosystem resilience on biodiversity. Our results suggest that biodiversity mainly stabilizes ecosystem productivity, and productivity-dependent ecosystem services, by increasing resistance to climate events. Anthropogenic environmental changes that drive biodiversity loss thus seem likely to decrease ecosystem stability, and restoration of biodiversity to increase it, mainly by changing the resistance of ecosystem productivity to climate events.

Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change.

PubMed

Trawöger, Lisa

2014-02-01

Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners , annoyed deniers , ambivalent optimists , convinced wait-and-seers . Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level.

Enhanced Climatic Warming Over the Tibetan Plateau Due to Doubling CO2: A Model Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Baode; Chao, Winston C.; Liu, Xiaodong; Lau, William K. M. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

A number of studies have presented the evidences that surface climate change associated with global warming at high elevation sites shows more pronounced warming than at low elevations, i.e. an elevation dependency of climatic warming pointed out that snow-albedo feedback may be responsible for the excessive warming in the Swiss Alps. From an ensemble of climate change experiments of increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols using an air-sea coupled climate model, Eyre and Raw (1999) found a marked elevation dependency of the simulated surface screen temperature increase over the Rocky Mountains. Using almost all available instrumental records, Liu and Chen (2000) showed that the main portion of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) has experienced significant ground temperature warming since the middlebrows, especially in winter, and that there is a tendency for the warming trend to increase with elevation in the TP as well as its surrounding areas. In this paper, we will investigate the mechanism of elevation dependency of climatic warming in the TP by using a high-resolution regional climate model.

Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basheer, A. K.; Lu, H.; Omer, A.; Ali, A. B.; Abdelgader, A. M. S.

2015-10-01

The fate of seasonal rivers ecosystem habitats under climate change essentially depends on the changes in annual recharge, which related to alterations in precipitation and evaporation over the river basin. Therefore the change in climate conditions is expected to significantly affect hydrological and ecological components, particularly in fragmented ecosystems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow in Dinder River Basin (DRB), and infer its relative possible effects on the Dinder National Park (DNP) ecosystem habitats in the Sudan. Two global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two statistical downscaling approaches combined with hydrological model (SWAT) were used to project the climate change conditions over the study periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The results indicated that the climate over the DRB will become warmer and wetter under the most scenarios. The projected precipitation variability mainly depends on the selected GCM and downscaling approach. Moreover, the projected streamflow was more sensitive to rainfall and temperature variation, and will likely increase in this century. In contrast to drought periods during (1960s, 1970s and 1980s), the predicted climate change is likely to affect ecosystems in DNP positively and promote the ecological restoration of the flora and fauna habitats'.

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bassar, Ronald D.; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Nislow, Keith H.; Whiteley, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Embryonic development rates of northern grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae): implications for climate change and habitat management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature-dependent rates of embryonic development are a primary determinant of the life cycle of many species of grasshoppers which, in cold climates, spend two winters in the egg stage. Knowledge of embryonic developmental rates is important for an assessment of the effects of climate change and...

Climate Sensitivity Controls Uncertainty in Future Terrestrial Carbon Sink

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schurgers, Guy; Ahlström, Anders; Arneth, Almut; Pugh, Thomas A. M.; Smith, Benjamin

2018-05-01

For the 21st century, carbon cycle models typically project an increase of terrestrial carbon with increasing atmospheric CO2 and a decrease with the accompanying climate change. However, these estimates are poorly constrained, primarily because they typically rely on a limited number of emission and climate scenarios. Here we explore a wide range of combinations of CO2 rise and climate change and assess their likelihood with the climate change responses obtained from climate models. Our results demonstrate that the terrestrial carbon uptake depends critically on the climate sensitivity of individual climate models, representing a large uncertainty of model estimates. In our simulations, the terrestrial biosphere is unlikely to become a strong source of carbon with any likely combination of CO2 and climate change in the absence of land use change, but the fraction of the emissions taken up by the terrestrial biosphere will decrease drastically with higher emissions.

Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan.

PubMed

Malik, Sadia Mariam; Awan, Haroon; Khan, Niazullah

2012-09-03

Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and geographic terms- such as Balochistan, Low-Intensity Punjab, and Cotton-Wheat Sindh -also happen to be the most deprived regions in Pakistan in terms of socio-economic indicators, suggesting that the government needs to direct its efforts to the socio-economic uplift of these lagging regions to reduce their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change.

Variation in the sensitivity of organismal body temperature to climate change over local and geographic scales.

PubMed

Gilman, Sarah E; Wethey, David S; Helmuth, Brian

2006-06-20

Global climate change is expected to have broad ecological consequences for species and communities. Attempts to forecast these consequences usually assume that changes in air or water temperature will translate into equivalent changes in a species' organismal body temperature. This simple change is unlikely because an organism's body temperature is determined by a complex series of interactions between the organism and its environment. Using a biophysical model, validated with 5 years of field observations, we examined the relationship between environmental temperature change and body temperature of the intertidal mussel Mytilus californianus over 1,600 km of its geographic distribution. We found that at all locations examined simulated changes in air or water temperature always produced less than equivalent changes in the daily maximum mussel body temperature. Moreover, the magnitude of body temperature change was highly variable, both within and among locations. A simulated 1 degrees C increase in air or water temperature raised the maximum monthly average of daily body temperature maxima by 0.07-0.92 degrees C, depending on the geographic location, vertical position, and temperature variable. We combined these sensitivities with predicted climate change for 2100 and calculated increases in monthly average maximum body temperature of 0.97-4.12 degrees C, depending on location and climate change scenario. Thus geographic variation in body temperature sensitivity can modulate species' experiences of climate change and must be considered when predicting the biological consequences of climate change.

Effects of climate change on the delivery of soil-mediated ecosystem services within the primary sector in temperate ecosystems: a review and New Zealand case study.

PubMed

Orwin, Kate H; Stevenson, Bryan A; Smaill, Simeon J; Kirschbaum, Miko U F; Dickie, Ian A; Clothier, Brent E; Garrett, Loretta G; van der Weerden, Tony J; Beare, Michael H; Curtin, Denis; de Klein, Cecile A M; Dodd, Michael B; Gentile, Roberta; Hedley, Carolyn; Mullan, Brett; Shepherd, Mark; Wakelin, Steven A; Bell, Nigel; Bowatte, Saman; Davis, Murray R; Dominati, Estelle; O'Callaghan, Maureen; Parfitt, Roger L; Thomas, Steve M

2015-08-01

Future human well-being under climate change depends on the ongoing delivery of food, fibre and wood from the land-based primary sector. The ability to deliver these provisioning services depends on soil-based ecosystem services (e.g. carbon, nutrient and water cycling and storage), yet we lack an in-depth understanding of the likely response of soil-based ecosystem services to climate change. We review the current knowledge on this topic for temperate ecosystems, focusing on mechanisms that are likely to underpin differences in climate change responses between four primary sector systems: cropping, intensive grazing, extensive grazing and plantation forestry. We then illustrate how our findings can be applied to assess service delivery under climate change in a specific region, using New Zealand as an example system. Differences in the climate change responses of carbon and nutrient-related services between systems will largely be driven by whether they are reliant on externally added or internally cycled nutrients, the extent to which plant communities could influence responses, and variation in vulnerability to erosion. The ability of soils to regulate water under climate change will mostly be driven by changes in rainfall, but can be influenced by different primary sector systems' vulnerability to soil water repellency and differences in evapotranspiration rates. These changes in regulating services resulted in different potentials for increased biomass production across systems, with intensively managed systems being the most likely to benefit from climate change. Quantitative prediction of net effects of climate change on soil ecosystem services remains a challenge, in part due to knowledge gaps, but also due to the complex interactions between different aspects of climate change. Despite this challenge, it is critical to gain the information required to make such predictions as robust as possible given the fundamental role of soils in supporting human well-being. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Competitive and demographic leverage points of community shifts under climate warming

PubMed Central

Sorte, Cascade J. B.; White, J. Wilson

2013-01-01

Accelerating rates of climate change and a paucity of whole-community studies of climate impacts limit our ability to forecast shifts in ecosystem structure and dynamics, particularly because climate change can lead to idiosyncratic responses via both demographic effects and altered species interactions. We used a multispecies model to predict which processes and species' responses are likely to drive shifts in the composition of a space-limited benthic marine community. Our model was parametrized from experimental manipulations of the community. Model simulations indicated shifts in species dominance patterns as temperatures increase, with projected shifts in composition primarily owing to the temperature dependence of growth, mortality and competition for three critical species. By contrast, warming impacts on two other species (rendering them weaker competitors for space) and recruitment rates of all species were of lesser importance in determining projected community changes. Our analysis reveals the importance of temperature-dependent competitive interactions for predicting effects of changing climate on such communities. Furthermore, by identifying processes and species that could disproportionately leverage shifts in community composition, our results contribute to a mechanistic understanding of climate change impacts, thereby allowing more insightful predictions of future biodiversity patterns. PMID:23658199

Convinced, ambivalent or annoyed: Tyrolean ski tourism stakeholders and their perceptions of climate change☆

PubMed Central

Trawöger, Lisa

2014-01-01

Its focus on snow-dependent activities makes Alpine winter tourism especially sensitive to climate change. Stakeholder risk perceptions are a key factor in adaptation to climate change because they fundamentally drive or constrain stakeholder action. This paper examines climate change perceptions of winter tourism stakeholders in Tyrol (Austria). Using a qualitative approach, expert interviews were conducted. Four opinion categories reflecting different attitudes toward climate change issues were identified: convinced planners, annoyed deniers, ambivalent optimists, convinced wait-and-seers. Although the findings generally indicate a growing awareness of climate change, this awareness is mainly limited to perceiving the issue as a global phenomenon. Awareness of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change that lead to a demand for action could not be identified. Current technical strategies, like snowmaking, are not primarily climate-induced. At present, coping with climate change is not a priority for risk management. The findings point out the importance of gaining and transferring knowledge of regional and branch-specific consequences of climate change in order to induce action at the destination level. PMID:27064520

Evolution of plant–pollinator mutualisms in response to climate change

PubMed Central

Gilman, R Tucker; Fabina, Nicholas S; Abbott, Karen C; Rafferty, Nicole E

2012-01-01

Climate change has the potential to desynchronize the phenologies of interdependent species, with potentially catastrophic effects on mutualist populations. Phenologies can evolve, but the role of evolution in the response of mutualisms to climate change is poorly understood. We developed a model that explicitly considers both the evolution and the population dynamics of a plant–pollinator mutualism under climate change. How the populations evolve, and thus whether the populations and the mutualism persist, depends not only on the rate of climate change but also on the densities and phenologies of other species in the community. Abundant alternative mutualist partners with broad temporal distributions can make a mutualism more robust to climate change, while abundant alternative partners with narrow temporal distributions can make a mutualism less robust. How community composition and the rate of climate change affect the persistence of mutualisms is mediated by two-species Allee thresholds. Understanding these thresholds will help researchers to identify those mutualisms at highest risk owing to climate change. PMID:25568025

How will species respond to climate change? Examining the effects of temperature and population density on an herbivorous insect.

PubMed

Laws, Angela Nardoni; Belovsky, Gary E

2010-04-01

An important challenge facing ecologists is to understand how climate change may affect species performance and species interactions. However, predicting how changes in abiotic variables associated with climate change may affect species performance also depends on the biotic context, which can mediate species responses to climatic change. We conducted a 3-yr field experiment to determine how the herbivorous grasshopper Camnula pellucida (Scudder) responds to manipulations of temperature and population density. Grasshopper survival and fecundity decreased with density, indicating the importance of intraspecific competition. Female fecundity tended to increase with temperature, whereas grasshopper survival exhibited a unimodal response to temperature, with highest survival at intermediate temperatures. Grasshopper performance responses to temperature also depended on density. Peak survival in the low-density treatment occurred in warmer conditions than for the high-density treatment, indicating that the intensity of intraspecific competition varies with temperature. Our data show that changes to the temperature regimen can alter grasshopper performance and determine the intensity of intraspecific competition. However, the effects of temperature on grasshopper performance varied with density. Our data indicate the importance of the biotic context in mediating species responses to climatic factors associated with global change.

The Use of Statistical Downscaling to Project Regional Climate Changes as they Relate to Future Energy Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; O'Steen, L.; Chen, K.; Altinakar, M. S.; Garrett, A.; Aleman, S.; Ramalingam, V.

2010-12-01

Global climate change has the potential for profound impacts on society, and poses significant challenges to government and industry in the areas of energy security and sustainability. Given that the ability to exploit energy resources often depends on the climate, the possibility of climate change means we cannot simply assume that the untapped potential of today will still exist in the future. Predictions of future climate are generally based on global climate models (GCMs) which, due to computational limitations, are run at spatial resolutions of hundreds of kilometers. While the results from these models can predict climatic trends averaged over large spatial and temporal scales, their ability to describe the effects of atmospheric phenomena that affect weather on regional to local scales is inadequate. We propose the use of several optimized statistical downscaling techniques that can infer climate change at the local scale from coarse resolution GCM predictions, and apply the results to assess future sustainability for two sources of energy production dependent on adequate water resources: nuclear power (through the dissipation of waste heat from cooling towers, ponds, etc.) and hydroelectric power. All methods will be trained with 20th century data, and applied to data from the years 2040-2049 to get the local-scale changes. Models of cooling tower operation and hydropower potential will then use the downscaled data to predict the possible changes in energy production, and the implications of climate change on plant siting, design, and contribution to the future energy grid can then be examined.

Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination: can individual plasticity in nesting phenology prevent extreme sex ratios?

PubMed

Schwanz, Lisa E; Janzen, Fredric J

2008-01-01

Under temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), temperatures experienced by embryos during development determine the sex of the offspring. Consequently, populations of organisms with TSD have the potential to be strongly impacted by climatic warming that could bias offspring sex ratio, a fundamental demographic parameter involved in population dynamics. Moreover, many taxa with TSD are imperiled, so research on this phenomenon, particularly long-term field study, has assumed great urgency. Recently, turtles with TSD have joined the diverse list of taxa that have demonstrated population-level changes in breeding phenology in response to recent climate change. This raises the possibility that any adverse impacts of climate change on populations may be alleviated by individual plasticity in nesting phenology. Here, we examine data from a long-term study on a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) to determine whether changes in phenology are due to individual plasticity and whether individual plasticity in the timing of nesting has the capacity to offset the sex ratio effects of a rise in climatic temperature. We find that individual females show plasticity in the date of first nesting each year, and that this plasticity depends on the climate from the previous winter. First nesting date is not repeatable within individuals, suggesting that it would not respond to selection. Sex ratios of hatchlings within a nest declined nonsignificantly over the nesting season. However, small increases in summer temperature had a much stronger effect on nest sex ratios than did laying nests earlier in the season. For this and other reasons, it seems unlikely that individual plasticity in the timing of nesting will offset the effects of climate change on sex ratios in this population, and we hypothesize that this conclusion applies to other populations with TSD.

Consequences of a warming climate for social organisation in sweat bees.

PubMed

Schürch, Roger; Accleton, Christopher; Field, Jeremy

The progression from solitary living to caste-based sociality is commonly regarded as a major evolutionary transition. However, it has recently been shown that in some taxa, sociality may be plastic and dependent on local conditions. If sociality can be environmentally driven, the question arises as to how projected climate change will influence features of social organisation that were previously thought to be of macroevolutionary proportions. Depending on the time available in spring during which a foundress can produce worker offspring, the sweat bee Halictus rubicundus is either social or solitary. We analysed detailed foraging data in relation to climate change predictions for Great Britain to assess when and where switches from a solitary to social lifestyle may be expected. We demonstrate that worker numbers should increase throughout Great Britain under predicted climate change scenarios, and importantly, that sociality should appear in northern areas where it has never before been observed. This dramatic shift in social organisation due to climate change should lead to a bigger workforce being available for summer pollination and may contribute towards mitigating the current pollinator crisis. The sweat bee Halictus rubicundus is socially polymorphic, expressing both solitary and social forms, and is socially plastic, capable of transitioning from solitary to social forms, depending on local environmental conditions. Here, we analyse detailed foraging data in relation to climate change predictions for Great Britain to show that worker numbers and sociality both increase under predicted climate change scenarios. Especially dramatic will be the appearance of social H. rubicundus nests in the north of Britain, where previously only solitary forms are found. Particularly, if more taxa are found to be socially plastic, environmentally driven shifts in social organisation may help to mitigate future pollinator crises by providing more individuals for pollination.

Modeling the effects of climate change-induced shifts in reproductive phenology on temperature-dependent traits.

PubMed

Telemeco, Rory S; Abbott, Karen C; Janzen, Fredric J

2013-05-01

By altering phenology, organisms have the potential to match life-history events with suitable environmental conditions. Because of this, phenological plasticity has been proposed as a mechanism whereby populations might buffer themselves from climate change. We examine the potential buffering power of advancing one aspect of phenology, nesting date, on sex ratio in painted turtles (Chrysemys picta), a species with temperature-dependent sex determination. We developed a modified constant temperature equivalent model that accounts for the effect of the interaction among climate change, oviposition date, and seasonal thermal pattern on temperature during sexual differentiation and thus on offspring sex ratio. Our results suggest that females will not be able to buffer their progeny from the negative consequences of climate change by adjusting nesting date alone. Not only are offspring sex ratios predicted to become 100% female, but our model suggests that many nests will fail. Because the seasonal thermal trends that we consider are experienced by most temperate species, our result that adjusting spring phenology alone will be insufficient to counter the effects of directional climate change may be broadly applicable.

Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

2015-04-01

In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

Disease in a more variable and unpredictable climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, T. A.; Raffel, T.; Rohr, J. R.; Halstead, N.; Venesky, M.; Romansic, J.

2014-12-01

Global climate change is shifting the dynamics of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. Despite this, the role of global climate change in the decline of biodiversity and the emergence of infectious diseases remains controversial. Climate change is expected to increase climate variability in addition to increasing mean temperatures, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America support this framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was inconsistent with the pattern of Bd growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. Consistent with our laboratory experiments, increased regional temperature variability associated with global El Niño climatic events was the best predictor of widespread amphibian losses in the genus Atelopus. Thus, incorporating the effects of small-scale temporal variability in climate can greatly improve our ability to predict the effects of climate change on disease.

Climate change and vector-borne diseases of public health significance.

PubMed

Ogden, Nicholas H

2017-10-16

There has been much debate as to whether or not climate change will have, or has had, any significant effect on risk from vector-borne diseases. The debate on the former has focused on the degree to which occurrence and levels of risk of vector-borne diseases are determined by climate-dependent or independent factors, while the debate on the latter has focused on whether changes in disease incidence are due to climate at all, and/or are attributable to recent climate change. Here I review possible effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases, methods used to predict these effects and the evidence to date of changes in vector-borne disease risks that can be attributed to recent climate change. Predictions have both over- and underestimated the effects of climate change. Mostly under-estimations of effects are due to a focus only on direct effects of climate on disease ecology while more distal effects on society's capacity to control and prevent vector-borne disease are ignored. There is increasing evidence for possible impacts of recent climate change on some vector-borne diseases but for the most part, observed data series are too short (or non-existent), and impacts of climate-independent factors too great, to confidently attribute changing risk to climate change. © Crown copyright 2017.

Assessment of vulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate change and adaptation planning in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matin, M. A.; Chitale, V. S.

2016-12-01

Understanding ecosystem level vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these ecosystems is a first step towards developing effective adaptation strategies. As forests are important components of livelihoods system for a large percentage of the population in the Himalayan region, they offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities. Increased frequency, duration, and/or severity of drought and heat stress, changes in winter ecology, and pest and fire outbreaksunder climate change scenarios could fundamentally alter the composition, productivity and biogeography of forests affecting the potential ecosystem services offered and forest-based livelihoods. Hence, forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and the development of a knowledgebase to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is identified as an urgent need. Climate change vulnerability is measured as a function of exposure, sensitivity and the adaptive capacity of the system towards climate variability and extreme events. Effective adaptation to climate change depends on the availability of two important prerequisites: a) information on what, where, and how to adapt, and b) availability of resources to implement the adaptation measures. In the present study, we introduce the concept of two way multitier approach, which can support effective identification and implementation of adaptation measures in Nepal and the framework can be replicated in other countries in the HKH region. The assessment of overall vulnerability of forests comprises of two components: 1) understanding the relationship between exposure and sensitivity and positive feedback from adaptive capacity of forests; 2) quantifying the dependence of local communities on these ecosystems. We use climate datasets from Bioclim and biophysical products from MODIS, alongwith field datasets. We report that most of the forests along the high altitude areas and few patches in midhills and terai (plains) in Central Nepal depict moderate to high vulnerability of forests, while the forests from most of the other areas experience low vulnerability. Based on the matrix of vulnerability and dependence we suggest adaptation footprints for prioritization of adaptation measures on the ground.

The Effect of Mitigation Policy on Regional Climate Impacts on the U.S. Electric Sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, S. M.; Sun, Y.; Strzepek, K.; McFarland, J.; Boehlert, B.; Fant, C.

2017-12-01

Climate change can influence the U.S. electricity sector in many ways, the nature of which can be shaped by energy and environmental policy choices. Changing temperatures affect electricity demand largely through heating and cooling needs, and temperatures also affect generation and transmission system performance. Altered precipitation patterns affect the regional and seasonal distribution of surface water runoff, which changes hydropower operation and thermal cooling water availability. The extent to which these stimuli influence U.S. power sector operation and planning will depend to some extent on whether or not proactive policies are enacted to mitigate these impacts. Mitigation policies such as CO2 emissions limits or technology restrictions can change the makeup of the electricity system while reducing the extent of climate change itself. We use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS), a U.S. electric sector capacity expansion model, to explore electric sector evolution through 2050 under alternative climate and policy assumptions. The model endogenously represents climate impacts on load, power system performance, cooling water availability, and hydropower, allowing internally consistent system responses to climate change along with projected technology, market, and policy conditions. We compare climate impacts across 5 global circulation models for a 8.5 W/m2 representative concentration pathway (RCP) without a climate mitigation policy and a 4.5 W/m2 RCP with climate mitigation. Climate drivers affect the capacity and generation mix at the national and regional levels, with relative growth of wind, solar, and natural gas-based technologies depending on local electricity system characteristics. These differences affect regional economic impacts, measured here as changes to electricity price and system costs. Mitigation policy reduces the economic and system impacts of climate change largely by moderating temperature-induced load but also by lessening water- and temperature-based performance constraints. Policy impacts are nuanced and region-specific, and this analysis underscores the importance of climate mitigation policy to regional electricity system planning decisions.

Climate: Policy, Modeling, and Federal Priorities (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koonin, S.; Department Of Energy Office Of The Under SecretaryScience

2010-12-01

The Administration has set ambitious national goals to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels and reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The US and other countries involved in the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change continue to work toward a goal of establishing a viable treaty that would encompass limits on emissions and codify actions that nations would take to reduce emissions. These negotiations are informed by the science of climate change and by our understanding of how changes in technology and the economy might affect the overall climate in the future. I will describe the present efforts within the U.S. Department of Energy, and the federal government more generally, to address issues related to climate change. These include state-of-the-art climate modeling and uncertainty assessment, economic and climate scenario planning based on best estimates of different technology trajectories, adaption strategies for climate change, and monitoring and reporting for treaty verification.

Possible implications of global climate change on global lightning distributions and frequencies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Price, Colin; Rind, David

1994-01-01

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) is used to study the possible implications of past and future climate change on global lightning frequencies. Two climate change experiments were conducted: one for a 2 x CO2 climate (representing a 4.2 degs C global warming) and one for a 2% decrease in the solar constant (representing a 5.9 degs C global cooling). The results suggest at 30% increase in global lightning activity for the warmer climate and a 24% decrease in global lightning activity for the colder climate. This implies an approximate 5-6% change in global lightning frequencies for every 1 degs C global warming/cooling. Both intracloud and cloud-to-ground frequencies are modeled, with cloud-to-ground lightning frequencies showing larger sensitivity to climate change than intracloud frequencies. The magnitude of the modeled lightning changes depends on season, location, and even time of day.

Use of potato genetic diversity to challenge abiotic stresses in the high Andes of Peru

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Unexpected frost is one of the most serious constraints in the Andean region and, recent climate change models are predicting even more severe and untimely frost episodes. Since agriculture is dependent on climate and sensitive to climate change, work is needed to keep it sustainable. From a long te...

Simple three-pool model accurately describes patterns of long-term litter decomposition in diverse climates

Treesearch

E. Carol Adair; William J. Parton; Steven J. Del Grosso; Shendee L. Silver; Mark E. Harmon; Sonia A. Hall; Ingrid C. Burke; Stephen C. Hart

2008-01-01

As atmospheric CO2 increases, ecosystem carbon sequestration will largely depend on how global changes in climate will alter the balance between net primary production and decomposition. The response of primary production to climatic change has been examined using well-validated mechanistic models, but the same is not true for decomposition, a...

Effects of climate change on rangeland vegetation in the northern Rockies [Chapter 6

Treesearch

Matt C. Reeves; Mary E. Manning; Jeff P. DiBenedetto; Kyle A. Palmquist; William K. Lauenroth; John B. Bradford; Daniel R. Schlaepfer

2017-01-01

A longer growing season with climate change is expected to increase net primary productivity of many rangeland types, especially those dominated by grasses, although responses will depend on local climate and soil conditions. Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide may increase water use efficiency and productivity of some species. In many cases, increasing wildfire...

Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. Methods In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Results Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4 - 4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1 - 3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2 - 3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4 - 3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5 -3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1 - 2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0 - 2.2). Conclusions Motivation for voluntary mitigation is mostly dependent on perceived susceptibility to threats and severity of climate change or climate variability impacts, whereas adaptation is largely dependent on the availability of information relevant to climate change. Thus, the climate change discourse could be framed from a health perspective to motivate behaviour change. PMID:21600004

Climate change and climate variability: personal motivation for adaptation and mitigation.

PubMed

Semenza, Jan C; Ploubidis, George B; George, Linda A

2011-05-21

Global climate change impacts on human and natural systems are predicted to be severe, far reaching, and to affect the most physically and economically vulnerable disproportionately. Society can respond to these threats through two strategies: mitigation and adaptation. Industry, commerce, and government play indispensable roles in these actions but so do individuals, if they are receptive to behavior change. We explored whether the health frame can be used as a context to motivate behavioral reductions of greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation measures. In 2008, we conducted a cross-sectional survey in the United States using random digit dialing. Personal relevance of climate change from health threats was explored with the Health Belief Model (HBM) as a conceptual frame and analyzed through logistic regressions and path analysis. Of 771 individuals surveyed, 81% (n = 622) acknowledged that climate change was occurring, and were aware of the associated ecologic and human health risks. Respondents reported reduced energy consumption if they believed climate change could affect their way of life (perceived susceptibility), Odds Ratio (OR) = 2.4 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.4-4.0), endanger their life (perceived severity), OR = 1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-3.1), or saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change, OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.2-3.5). Perceived susceptibility had the strongest effect on reduced energy consumption, either directly or indirectly via perceived severity. Those that reported having the necessary information to prepare for climate change impacts were more likely to have an emergency kit OR = 2.1 (95% CI: 1.4-3.1) or plan, OR = 2.2 (95% CI: 1.5-3.2) for their household, but also saw serious barriers to protecting themselves from climate change or climate variability, either by having an emergency kit OR = 1.6 (95% CI: 1.1-2.4) or an emergency plan OR = 1.5 (95%CI: 1.0-2.2). Motivation for voluntary mitigation is mostly dependent on perceived susceptibility to threats and severity of climate change or climate variability impacts, whereas adaptation is largely dependent on the availability of information relevant to climate change. Thus, the climate change discourse could be framed from a health perspective to motivate behaviour change.

Climate change and maize yield in Iowa

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E.; Girvetz, Evan

Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21 st century as compared with late 20 th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model withmore » output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20 th century to middle and late 21 st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Lastly, our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21 st century.« less

Climate change and maize yield in Iowa

DOE PAGES

Xu, Hong; Twine, Tracy E.; Girvetz, Evan

2016-05-24

Climate is changing across the world, including the major maize-growing state of Iowa in the USA. To maintain crop yields, farmers will need a suite of adaptation strategies, and choice of strategy will depend on how the local to regional climate is expected to change. Here we predict how maize yield might change through the 21 st century as compared with late 20 th century yields across Iowa, USA, a region representing ideal climate and soils for maize production that contributes substantially to the global maize economy. To account for climate model uncertainty, we drive a dynamic ecosystem model withmore » output from six climate models and two future climate forcing scenarios. Despite a wide range in the predicted amount of warming and change to summer precipitation, all simulations predict a decrease in maize yields from late 20 th century to middle and late 21 st century ranging from 15% to 50%. Linear regression of all models predicts a 6% state-averaged yield decrease for every 1°C increase in warm season average air temperature. When the influence of moisture stress on crop growth is removed from the model, yield decreases either remain the same or are reduced, depending on predicted changes in warm season precipitation. Lastly, our results suggest that even if maize were to receive all the water it needed, under the strongest climate forcing scenario yields will decline by 10-20% by the end of the 21 st century.« less

Climate change and health costs of air emissions from biofuels and gasoline

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason; Polasky, Stephen; Nelson, Erik; Tilman, David; Huo, Hong; Ludwig, Lindsay; Neumann, James; Zheng, Haochi; Bonta, Diego

2009-01-01

Environmental impacts of energy use can impose large costs on society. We quantify and monetize the life-cycle climate-change and health effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions from gasoline, corn ethanol, and cellulosic ethanol. For each billion ethanol-equivalent gallons of fuel produced and combusted in the US, the combined climate-change and health costs are $469 million for gasoline, $472–952 million for corn ethanol depending on biorefinery heat source (natural gas, corn stover, or coal) and technology, but only $123–208 million for cellulosic ethanol depending on feedstock (prairie biomass, Miscanthus, corn stover, or switchgrass). Moreover, a geographically explicit life-cycle analysis that tracks PM2.5 emissions and exposure relative to U.S. population shows regional shifts in health costs dependent on fuel production systems. Because cellulosic ethanol can offer health benefits from PM2.5 reduction that are of comparable importance to its climate-change benefits from GHG reduction, a shift from gasoline to cellulosic ethanol has greater advantages than previously recognized. These advantages are critically dependent on the source of land used to produce biomass for biofuels, on the magnitude of any indirect land use that may result, and on other as yet unmeasured environmental impacts of biofuels. PMID:19188587

Do radiative feedbacks depend on the structure and type of climate forcing, or only on the spatial pattern of surface temperature change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haugstad, A.; Battisti, D. S.; Armour, K.

2016-12-01

Earth's climate sensitivity depends critically on the strength of radiative feedbacks linking surface warming to changes in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation. Many studies use a simplistic idea of radiative feedbacks, either by treating them as global mean quantities, or by assuming they can be defined uniquely by geographic location and thus that TOA radiative response depends only on local surface warming. For example, a uniform increase in sea-surface temperature has been widely used as a surrogate for global warming (e.g., Cess et al 1990 and the CMIP 'aqua4k' simulations), with the assumption that this produces the same radiative feedbacks as those arising from a doubling of carbon dioxide - even though the spatial patterns of warming differ. However, evidence suggests that these assumptions are not valid, and local feedbacks may be integrally dependent on the structure of warming or type of climate forcing applied (Rose et al 2014). This study thus investigates the following questions: to what extent do local feedbacks depend on the structure and type of forcing applied? And, to what extent do they depend on the pattern of surface temperature change induced by that forcing? Using an idealized framework of an aquaplanet atmosphere-only model, we show that radiative feedbacks are indeed dependent on the large scale structure of warming and type of forcing applied. For example, the climate responds very differently to two forcings of equal global magnitude but applied in different global regions; the pattern of local feedbacks arising from uniform warming are not the same as that arising from polar amplified warming; and the same local feedbacks can be induced by distinct forcing patterns, provided that they produce the same pattern of surface temperature change. These findings suggest that the so-called `efficacies' of climate forcings can be understood simply in terms of how local feedbacks depend on the temperature patterns they induce.

Integrating Climate and Ocean Change Vulnerability into Conservation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mcleod, E.; Green, A.; Game, E.; Anthony, K.; Cinner, J.; Heron, S. F.; Kleypas, J. A.; Lovelock, C.; Pandolfi, J.; Pressey, B.; Salm, R.; Schill, S.; Woodroffe, C. D.

2013-05-01

Tropical coastal and marine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to ocean warming, ocean acidification, and sea-level rise. Yet these projected climate and ocean change impacts are rarely considered in conservation planning due to the lack of guidance on how existing climate and ocean change models, tools, and data can be applied. We address this gap by describing how conservation planning can use available tools and data for assessing the vulnerability of tropical marine ecosystems to key climate threats. Additionally, we identify limitations of existing tools and provide recommendations for future research to improve integration of climate and ocean change information and conservation planning. Such information is critical for developing a conservation response that adequately protects these ecosystems and dependent coastal communities in the face of climate and ocean change.

East Africa's pastoralist emergency: is climate change the straw that breaks the camel's back?

PubMed

Blackwell, P J

2010-01-01

The global warming trend of climate change is having severe adverse effects on the livelihoods of the Turkana pastoralists of northwestern Kenya. Care has to be taken in making assertions about the impact of climate change. The biggest effects may come not from lower average rainfall but from a widening of the standard deviation as weather extremes become more frequent. In a region already prone to drought, disease and conflict, climate change, access to modern weapons and new viral livestock diseases are now overwhelming pastoralists' coping capacity and deepening the region's roughly 30-year dependency on famine relief. This article examines the livelihood strategies of the Turkana and several poverty reduction programmes currently established, while addressing the reality that traditional pastoralism may no longer be a viable livelihood option, given the effects of climate change, disease and the ensuing conflict over diminishing resources. The findings conclude that the future for traditional Turkana pastoralists is dismal because they continue to depend on an environment that may no longer support them. Humanitarians are recommended to shift their focus to advocate and invest in alternative livelihood strategies that generate economic independence and help the Turkana adapt to their changing environment.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.

PubMed

Moss, Richard H; Edmonds, Jae A; Hibbard, Kathy A; Manning, Martin R; Rose, Steven K; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Carter, Timothy R; Emori, Seita; Kainuma, Mikiko; Kram, Tom; Meehl, Gerald A; Mitchell, John F B; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J; Stouffer, Ronald J; Thomson, Allison M; Weyant, John P; Wilbanks, Thomas J

2010-02-11

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

Adaptation with climate uncertainty: An examination of agricultural land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mu, Jianhong E.; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Abatzoglou, John T.; Zhang, Hongliang

2018-01-01

This paper examines adaptation responses to climate change through adjustment of agricultural land use. The climate drivers we examine are changes in long-term climate normals (e.g., 10-year moving averages) and changes in inter-annual climate variability. Using US county level data over 1982 to 2012 from Census of Agriculture, we find that impacts of long-term climate normals are as important as that of inter-annual climate variability. Projecting into the future, we find projected climate change will lead to an expansion in crop land share across the northern and interior western United States with decreases in the south. We also find that grazing land share increases in southern regions and Inland Pacific Northwest and declines in the northern areas. However, the extent to which the adaptation potential would be is dependent on the climate model, emission scenario and time horizon under consideration.

Impacts of climate change under CMIP5 RCP scenarios on the streamflow in the Dinder River and ecosystem habitats in Dinder National Park, Sudan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basheer, Amir K.; Lu, Haishen; Omer, Abubaker; Ali, Abubaker B.; Abdelgader, Abdeldime M. S.

2016-04-01

The fate of seasonal river ecosystem habitats under climate change essentially depends on the changes in annual recharge of the river, which are related to alterations in precipitation and evaporation over the river basin. Therefore, the change in climate conditions is expected to significantly affect hydrological and ecological components, particularly in fragmented ecosystems. This study aims to assess the impacts of climate change on the streamflow in the Dinder River basin (DRB) and to infer its relative possible effects on the Dinder National Park (DNP) ecosystem habitats in Sudan. Four global circulation models (GCMs) from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and two statistical downscaling approaches combined with a hydrological model (SWAT - the Soil and Water Assessment Tool) were used to project the climate change conditions over the study periods 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. The results indicated that the climate over the DRB will become warmer and wetter under most scenarios. The projected precipitation variability mainly depends on the selected GCM and downscaling approach. Moreover, the projected streamflow is quite sensitive to rainfall and temperature variation, and will likely increase in this century. In contrast to drought periods during the 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s, the predicted climate change is likely to affect ecosystems in DNP positively and promote the ecological restoration for the habitats of flora and fauna.

Fish introductions reveal the temperature dependence of species interactions

PubMed Central

Hein, Catherine L.; Öhlund, Gunnar; Englund, Göran

2014-01-01

A major area of current research is to understand how climate change will impact species interactions and ultimately biodiversity. A variety of environmental conditions are rapidly changing owing to climate warming, and these conditions often affect both the strength and outcome of species interactions. We used fish distributions and replicated fish introductions to investigate environmental conditions influencing the coexistence of two fishes in Swedish lakes: brown trout (Salmo trutta) and pike (Esox lucius). A logistic regression model of brown trout and pike coexistence showed that these species coexist in large lakes (more than 4.5 km2), but not in small, warm lakes (annual air temperature more than 0.9–1.5°C). We then explored how climate change will alter coexistence by substituting climate scenarios for 2091–2100 into our model. The model predicts that brown trout will be extirpated from approximately half of the lakes where they presently coexist with pike and from nearly all 9100 lakes where pike are predicted to invade. Context dependency was critical for understanding pike–brown trout interactions, and, given the widespread occurrence of context-dependent species interactions, this aspect will probably be critical for accurately predicting climate impacts on biodiversity. PMID:24307673

Testing For The Linearity of Responses To Multiple Anthropogenic Climate Forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forest, C. E.; Stone, P. H.; Sokolov, A. P.

To test whether climate forcings are additive, we compare climate model simulations in which anthropogenic forcings are applied individually and in combination. Tests are performed with different values for climate system properties (climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean) as well as for different strengths of the net aerosol forcing, thereby testing for the dependence of linearity on these properties. The MIT 2D Land-Ocean Climate Model used in this study consists of a zonally aver- aged statistical-dynamical atmospheric model coupled to a mixed-layer Q-flux ocean model, with heat anomalies diffused into the deep ocean. Following our previous stud- ies, the anthropogenic forcings are the changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases (1860-1995), sulfate aerosol (1860-1995), and stratospheric and tropospheric ozone (1979-1995). The sulfate aerosol forcing is applied as a surface albedo change. For an aerosol forcing of -1.0 W/m2 and an effective ocean diffusitivity of 2.5 cm2/s, the nonlinearity of the response of global-mean surface temperatures to the combined forcing shows a strong dependence on climate sensitivity. The fractional change in decadal averages ([(TG + TS + TO) - TGSO]/TGSO) for the 1986-1995 period compared to pre-industrial times are 0.43, 0.90, and 1.08 with climate sensitiv- ities of 3.0, 4.5, and 6.2 C, respectively. The values of TGSO for these three cases o are 0.52, 0.62, and 0.76 C. The dependence of linearity on climate system properties, o the role of climate system feedbacks, and the implications for the detection of climate system's response to individual forcings will be presented. Details of the model and forcings can be found at http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/.

Testing for the linearity of responses to multiple anthropogenic climate forcings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forest, C. E.; Stone, P. H.; Sokolov, A. P.

2001-12-01

To test whether climate forcings are additive, we compare climate model simulations in which anthropogenic forcings are applied individually and in combination. Tests are performed with different values for climate system properties (climate sensitivity and rate of heat uptake by the deep ocean) as well as for different strengths of the net aerosol forcing, thereby testing for the dependence of linearity on these properties. The MIT 2D Land-Ocean Climate Model used in this study consists of a zonally averaged statistical-dynamical atmospheric model coupled to a mixed-layer Q-flux ocean model, with heat anomalies diffused into the deep ocean. Following our previous studies, the anthropogenic forcings are the changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases (1860-1995), sulfate aerosol (1860-1995), and stratospheric and tropospheric ozone (1979-1995). The sulfate aerosol forcing is applied as a surface albedo change. For an aerosol forcing of -1.0 W/m2 and an effective ocean diffusitivity of 2.5 cm2/s, the nonlinearity of the response of global-mean surface temperatures to the combined forcing shows a strong dependence on climate sensitivity. The fractional change in decadal averages ([(Δ TG + Δ TS + Δ TO) - Δ TGSO ]/ Δ TGSO) for the 1986-1995 period compared to pre-industrial times are 0.43, 0.90, and 1.08 with climate sensitivities of 3.0, 4.5, and 6.2 oC, respectively. The values of Δ TGSO for these three cases are 0.52, 0.62, and 0.76 oC. The dependence of linearity on climate system properties, the role of climate system feedbacks, and the implications for the detection of climate system's response to individual forcings will be presented. Details of the model and forcings can be found at http://web.mit.edu/globalchange/www/.

Abrupt Climate Change: the View from the Past, the Present and the Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, J. W. C.

2014-12-01

Climate is changing as humans put more and more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. With CO2 levels today around 400ppm, we are clearly committed to far more climate change, both in the near term, and well beyond our children's future. A key question is how that change will occur. Abrupt climate changes are those that exceed our expectations, preparedness, and ability to adapt. Such changes challenge us economically, physically, and socially. This talk will draw upon results from ice core research over the past twenty years, as well as a new NRC report on abrupt climate change in order to address abrupt change, as seen in the past in ice cores, as seen today in key environmental systems upon which humans depend, and what is may be coming in the future.

Impacts of climate change on marine top predators: Advances and future challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hobday, Alistair J.; Arrizabalaga, Haritz; Evans, Karen; Nicol, Simon; Young, Jock W.; Weng, Kevin C.

2015-03-01

Oceanic top predators are the subject of studies by researchers under the international Climate Impacts on Oceanic Top Predators (CLIOTOP) program. A wide range of data sets have shown that environmental conditions, such as temperature and marine productivity, affect the distribution and biological processes of these species, and thus the activities of the humans that depend on them. In this special issue, 25 papers arising from the 2nd CLIOTOP symposium, held in Noumea, New Caledonia in February 2013 report the importance of realistic physical descriptions of oceanic processes for climate change projections, demonstrate a wide range of predator responses to historical climate variability, describe new analytical approaches for understanding the physiology, behaviour and trophodynamics, and project future distributions for a range of species. Several contributions discuss the implications for conservation and fisheries and show that resolving ecosystem management challenges and conflicts in the face of climate change is possible, but will require attention by decision-makers to issues that are broader than their traditional mandate. In the coming years, an increased focus on the development of management options to reduce the impacts of climate change on top predators and their dependent industries is needed.

Effects of climate change and anthropogenic modification on a disturbance-dependent species in a large riverine system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zeigler, Sara; Catlin, Daniel H.; Bomberger Brown, M.; Fraser, J.D.; Dinan, Lauren R.; Hunt, Kelsi L.; Jorgensen, Joel G.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

2017-01-01

Humans have altered nearly every natural disturbance regime on the planet through climate and land-use change, and in many instances, these processes may have interacting effects. For example, projected shifts in temperature and precipitation will likely influence disturbance regimes already affected by anthropogenic fire suppression or river impoundments. Understanding how disturbance-dependent species respond to complex and interacting environmental changes is important for conservation efforts. Using field-based demographic and movement rates, we conducted a metapopulation viability analysis for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus), a threatened disturbance-dependent species, along the Missouri and Platte rivers in the Great Plains of North America. Our aim was to better understand current and projected future metapopulation dynamics given that natural disturbances (flooding or high-flow events) have been greatly reduced by river impoundments and that climate change could further alter the disturbance regime. Although metapopulation abundance has been substantially reduced under the current suppressed disturbance regime (high-flow return interval ~ 20 yr), it could grow if the frequency of high-flow events increases as predicted under likely climate change scenarios. We found that a four-year return interval would maximize metapopulation abundance, and all subpopulations in the metapopulation would act as sources at a return interval of 15 yr or less. Regardless of disturbance frequency, the presence of even a small, stable source subpopulation buffered the metapopulation and sustained a low metapopulation extinction risk. Therefore, climate change could have positive effects in ecosystems where disturbances have been anthropogenically suppressed when climatic shifts move disturbance regimes toward more historical patterns. Furthermore, stable source populations, even if unintentionally maintained through anthropogenic activities, may be critical for the persistence of metapopulations of early-successional species under both suppressed disturbance regimes and disturbance regimes where climate change has further altered disturbance frequency or scope.

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

DOE PAGES

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.; ...

2017-11-15

Climate change is projected to increase hydropower generation in some parts of the world and decrease it in others. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector at the global scale. Regional hydropower projections are developed by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We find that climate-driven changes in hydropower generation may shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies. This then causes significantlymore » altered power sector CO 2 emissions in several hydro-dependent regions, although the net global impact is modest. For drying regions, we estimate a global, cumulative investment need of approximately one trillion dollars (±$500 billion) this century to make up for deteriorated hydropower generation caused by climate change. Total investments avoided are of a similar magnitude across regions projected to experience increased precipitation. Investment risks and opportunities are concentrated in hydro-dependent countries for which significant climate change is expected. Various countries throughout the Balkans, Latin America and Southern Africa are most vulnerable, whilst Norway, Canada, and Bhutan emerge as clear beneficiaries.« less

Climate impacts on hydropower and consequences for global electricity supply investment needs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Kim, Son H.

Climate change is projected to increase hydropower generation in some parts of the world and decrease it in others. Here we explore the possible consequences of these impacts for the electricity supply sector at the global scale. Regional hydropower projections are developed by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations. Consequent impacts on power sector composition and associated emissions and investment costs are explored using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We find that climate-driven changes in hydropower generation may shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies. This then causes significantlymore » altered power sector CO 2 emissions in several hydro-dependent regions, although the net global impact is modest. For drying regions, we estimate a global, cumulative investment need of approximately one trillion dollars (±$500 billion) this century to make up for deteriorated hydropower generation caused by climate change. Total investments avoided are of a similar magnitude across regions projected to experience increased precipitation. Investment risks and opportunities are concentrated in hydro-dependent countries for which significant climate change is expected. Various countries throughout the Balkans, Latin America and Southern Africa are most vulnerable, whilst Norway, Canada, and Bhutan emerge as clear beneficiaries.« less

Mapping vulnerability to climate change and its repercussions on human health in Pakistan

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its geographic location, high dependence on agriculture and water resources, low adaptive capacity of its people, and weak system of emergency preparedness. This paper is the first ever attempt to rank the agro-ecological zones in Pakistan according to their vulnerability to climate change and to identify the potential health repercussions of each manifestation of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Methods A climate change vulnerability index is constructed as an un-weighted average of three sub-indices measuring (a) the ecological exposure of each region to climate change, (b) sensitivity of the population to climate change and (c) the adaptive capacity of the population inhabiting a particular region. The regions are ranked according to the value of this index and its components. Since health is one of the most important dimensions of human wellbeing, this paper also identifies the potential health repercussions of each manifestations of climate change and links it with the key manifestations of climate change in the context of Pakistan. Results The results indicate that Balochistan is the most vulnerable region with high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity followed by low-intensity Punjab (mostly consisting of South Punjab) and Cotton/Wheat Sindh. The health risks that each of these regions face depend upon the type of threat that they face from climate change. Greater incidence of flooding, which may occur due to climate variability, poses the risk of diarrhoea and gastroenteritis; skin and eye Infections; acute respiratory infections; and malaria. Exposure to drought poses the potential health risks in the form of food insecurity and malnutrition; anaemia; night blindness; and scurvy. Increases in temperature pose health risks of heat stroke; malaria; dengue; respiratory diseases; and cardiovascular diseases. Conclusion The study concludes that geographical zones that are more exposed to climate change in ecological and geographic terms- such as Balochistan, Low-Intensity Punjab, and Cotton-Wheat Sindh -also happen to be the most deprived regions in Pakistan in terms of socio-economic indicators, suggesting that the government needs to direct its efforts to the socio-economic uplift of these lagging regions to reduce their vulnerability to the adverse effects of climate change. PMID:22938568

US Drought-Heat Wave Relationships in Past Versus Current Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, L.; Hoerling, M. P.; Eischeid, J.; Liu, Z.

2017-12-01

This study explores the relationship between droughts and heat waves over various regions of the contiguous United States that are distinguished by so-called energy-limited versus water-limited climatologies. We first examine the regional sensitivity of heat waves to soil moisture variability under 19th century climate conditions, and then compare to sensitivities under current climate that has been subjected to human-induced change. Our approach involves application of the conditional statistical framework of vine copula. Vine copula is known for its flexibility in reproducing various dependence structures exhibited by climate variables. Here we highlight its feature for evaluating the importance of conditional relationships between variables and processes that capture underlying physical factors involved in their interdependence during drought/heat waves. Of particular interest is identifying changes in coupling strength between heat waves and land surface conditions that may yield more extreme events as a result of land surface feedbacks. We diagnose two equilibrium experiments a coupled climate model (CESM1), one subjected to Year-1850 external forcing and the other to Year-2000 radiative forcing. We calculate joint heat wave/drought relationships for each climate state, and also calculate their change as a result of external radiative forcing changes across this 150-yr period. Our results reveal no material change in the dependency between heat waves and droughts, aside from small increases in coupling strength over the Great Plains. Overall, hot U.S. summer droughts of 1850-vintage do not become hotter in the current climate -- aside from the warming contribution of long-term climate change, in CESM1. The detectability of changes in hotter droughts as a consequence of anthropogenic forced changes in this single effect, i.e. coupling strength between soil moisture and hot summer temperature, is judged to be low at this time.

Cannibalism by damselflies increases with rising temperature

PubMed Central

Kirk, Devin; Shea, Dylan

2017-01-01

Trophic interactions are likely to change under climate warming. These interactions can be altered directly by changing consumption rates, or indirectly by altering growth rates and size asymmetries among individuals that in turn affect feeding. Understanding these processes is particularly important for intraspecific interactions, as direct and indirect changes may exacerbate antagonistic interactions. We examined the effect of temperature on activity rate, growth and intraspecific size asymmetries, and how these temperature dependencies affected cannibalism in Lestes congener, a damselfly with marked intraspecific variation in size. Temperature increased activity rates and exacerbated differences in body size by increasing growth rates. Increased activity and changes in body size interacted to increase cannibalism at higher temperatures. We argue that our results are likely to be general to species with life-history stages that vary in their temperature dependencies, and that the effects of climate change on communities may depend on the temperature dependencies of intraspecific interactions. PMID:28515331

Cannibalism by damselflies increases with rising temperature.

PubMed

Start, Denon; Kirk, Devin; Shea, Dylan; Gilbert, Benjamin

2017-05-01

Trophic interactions are likely to change under climate warming. These interactions can be altered directly by changing consumption rates, or indirectly by altering growth rates and size asymmetries among individuals that in turn affect feeding. Understanding these processes is particularly important for intraspecific interactions, as direct and indirect changes may exacerbate antagonistic interactions. We examined the effect of temperature on activity rate, growth and intraspecific size asymmetries, and how these temperature dependencies affected cannibalism in Lestes congener , a damselfly with marked intraspecific variation in size. Temperature increased activity rates and exacerbated differences in body size by increasing growth rates. Increased activity and changes in body size interacted to increase cannibalism at higher temperatures. We argue that our results are likely to be general to species with life-history stages that vary in their temperature dependencies, and that the effects of climate change on communities may depend on the temperature dependencies of intraspecific interactions. © 2017 The Author(s).

Developing quantitative criteria to evaluate AOGCMs for application to regional climate assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayhoe, K.; Wake, C.; Bradbury, J.; Degaetano, A.; Hertel, A.

2006-12-01

Climate projections are the foundation for regional assessments of potential climate impacts. However, the soundness of regional assessments depends on the ability of global climate models to reproduce key processes responsible for regional climate trends. Here, we develop a systematic method to compare observed climate with historical atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations, to assess the degree to which AOGCMs are able to reproduce regional circulation patterns. Applying this methodology to the U.S. Northeast (NE), we find that nearly all AOGCMs simulate a reasonable winter NAO pattern and seasonal positions of the Jet Stream and the East Coast Trough. However, not all models capture observed correlations between these circulation patterns and seasonal climate anomalies in the NE. Using only those AOGCMs that meet the criteria in each of these areas, we then develop projections of future climate change in the NE. The primary changes projected to occur over the next century - slightly greater temperature increases in summer than winter, and increases in winter precipitation - are consistent with projected trends in regional climate processes and are relatively independent of model or scale. These suggest confidence in the direction and potential range of the most notable regional climate trends, with the absolute magnitude of change depending on both the sensitivity of the climate system to human forcing as well as on human emissions over coming decades.

Climate projections FAQ

Treesearch

A.E. Daniels; J.F. Morrison; L.A. Joyce; N.L. Crookston; S.C. Chen; S.G. McNulty

2012-01-01

Climate scenarios offer one way to identify and examine the land management challenges posed by climate change. Selecting projections, however, requires careful consideration of the natural resources under study, and where and how they are sensitive to climate. Selection also depends on the robustness of different projections for the resources and geographic area of...

Large storage operations under climate change: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, Matteo; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Vu, Phuong Nam; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo

2016-03-01

In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China-Laos-Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to +5% in hydropower production, +35 to +520% in flood damages, and +15 to +160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US year-1 at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.

Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep.

PubMed

Colchero, Fernando; Medellin, Rodrigo A; Clark, James S; Lee, Raymond; Katul, Gabriel G

2009-05-01

1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the long-term survival of the population, our results stress that a more variable environment is less threatening than one in which the mean conditions become harsher. Current climate change scenarios and their underlying uncertainty make studies such as this one crucial for understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations and their conservation.

Climate change-associated trends in net biomass change are age dependent in western boreal forests of Canada.

PubMed

Chen, Han Y H; Luo, Yong; Reich, Peter B; Searle, Eric B; Biswas, Shekhar R

2016-09-01

The impacts of climate change on forest net biomass change are poorly understood but critical for predicting forest's contribution to the global carbon cycle. Recent studies show climate change-associated net biomass declines in mature forest plots. The representativeness of these plots for regional forests, however, remains uncertain because we lack an assessment of whether climate change impacts differ with forest age. Using data from plots of varying ages from 17 to 210 years, monitored from 1958 to 2011 in western Canada, we found that climate change has little effect on net biomass change in forests ≤ 40 years of age due to increased growth offsetting increased mortality, but has led to large decreases in older forests due to increased mortality accompanying little growth gain. Our analysis highlights the need to incorporate forest age profiles in examining past and projecting future forest responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Assessment of impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on maize production in Uganda

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kikoyo, Duncan A.; Nobert, Joel

2016-06-01

Globally, various climatic studies have estimated a reduction of crop yields due to changes in surface temperature and precipitation especially for the developing countries which is heavily dependent on agriculture and lacks resources to counter the negative effects of climate change. Uganda's economy and the wellbeing of its populace depend on rain-fed agriculture which is susceptible to climate change. This study quantified the impacts of climate change and variability in Uganda and how coping strategies can enhance crop production against climate change and/or variability. The study used statistical methods to establish various climate change and variability indicators across the country, and uses the FAO AquaCrop model to simulate yields under possible future climate scenarios with and without adaptation strategies. Maize, the most widely grown crop was used for the study. Meteorological, soil and crop data were collected for various districts representing the maize growing ecological zones in the country. Based on this study, it was found that temperatures have increased by up to 1 °C across much of Uganda since the 1970s, with rates of warming around 0.3 °C per decade across the country. High altitude, low rainfall regions experience the highest level of warming, with over 0.5 °C/decade recorded in Kasese. Rainfall is variable and does not follow a specific significant increasing or decreasing trend. For both future climate scenarios, Maize yields will reduce in excess of 4.7% for the fast warming-low rainfall climates but increase on average by 3.5% for slow warming-high rainfall regions, by 2050. Improved soil fertility can improve yields by over 50% while mulching and use of surface water management practices improve yields by single digit percentages. The use of fertilizer application needs to go hand in hand with other water management strategies since more yields as a result of the improved soil fertility leads to increased water stress, especially for the dry climates.

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms

PubMed Central

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-01-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities. PMID:25535553

Weakening density dependence from climate change and agricultural intensification triggers pest outbreaks: a 37-year observation of cotton bollworms.

PubMed

Ouyang, Fang; Hui, Cang; Ge, Saiying; Men, Xin-Yuan; Zhao, Zi-Hua; Shi, Pei-Jian; Zhang, Yong-Sheng; Li, Bai-Lian

2014-09-01

Understanding drivers of population fluctuation, especially for agricultural pests, is central to the provision of agro-ecosystem services. Here, we examine the role of endogenous density dependence and exogenous factors of climate and human activity in regulating the 37-year population dynamics of an important agricultural insect pest, the cotton bollworm (Helicoverpa armigera), in North China from 1975 to 2011. Quantitative time-series analysis provided strong evidence explaining long-term population dynamics of the cotton bollworm and its driving factors. Rising temperature and declining rainfall exacerbated the effect of agricultural intensification on continuously weakening the negative density dependence in regulating the population dynamics of cotton bollworms. Consequently, ongoing climate change and agricultural intensification unleashed the tightly regulated pest population and triggered the regional outbreak of H. armigera in 1992. Although the negative density dependence can effectively regulate the population change rate to fluctuate around zero at stable equilibrium levels before and after outbreak in the 1992, the population equilibrium jumped to a higher density level with apparently larger amplitudes after the outbreak. The results highlight the possibility for exogenous factors to induce pest outbreaks and alter the population regulating mechanism of negative density dependence and, thus, the stable equilibrium of the pest population, often to a higher level, posing considerable risks to the provision of agro-ecosystem services and regional food security. Efficient and timely measures of pest management in the era of Anthropocene should target the strengthening and revival of weakening density dependence caused by climate change and human activities.

The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health.

PubMed

Orru, H; Ebi, K L; Forsberg, B

2017-12-01

Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research. Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.

Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans

PubMed Central

Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S.

2016-01-01

Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago’s are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others. PMID:27110801

Health Aspects of Climate Change in Cities with Mediterranean Climate, and Local Adaptation Plans.

PubMed

Paz, Shlomit; Negev, Maya; Clermont, Alexandra; Green, Manfred S

2016-04-21

Cities with a Mediterranean-type climate (Med-cities) are particularly susceptible to health risks from climate change since they are located in biogeographical hot-spots that experience some of the strongest effects of the changing climate. The study aims to highlight health impacts of climate change in Med-cities, analyze local climate adaptation plans and make adaptation policy recommendations for the Med-city level. We identified five Med-cities with a climate change adaptation plan: Adelaide, Barcelona, Cape Town, Los Angeles and Santiago. Beyond their similar Med-climate features (although Santiago's are slightly different), the cities have different socio-economic characteristics in various aspects. We analyzed each plan according to how it addresses climate change-related drivers of health impacts among city dwellers. For each driver, we identified the types of policy adaptation tools that address it in the urban climate adaptation plans. The surveyed cities address most of the fundamental climate change-related drivers of risks to human health, including rising temperatures, flooding and drought, but the policy measures to reduce negative impacts vary across cities. We suggest recommendations for Med-cities in various aspects, depending on their local needs and vulnerability challenges: assessment of health risks, extreme events management and long-term adaptation, among others.

Modeling the potential impacts of climate change on the water table level of selected forested wetlands in the southeastern United States

Treesearch

Jie Zhu; Ge Sun; Wenhong Li; Yu Zhang; Guofang Miao; Asko Noormets; Steve G. McNulty; John S. King; Mukesh Kumar; Xuan Wang

2017-01-01

The southeastern United States hosts extensive forested wetlands, providing ecosystem services including carbon sequestration, water quality improvement, ground- water recharge, and wildlife habitat. However, these wet- land ecosystems are dependent on local climate and hydrol- ogy, and are therefore at risk due to climate and land use change. This study develops site-...

Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C

2015-05-01

Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate change and viticulture in Mediterranean climates: the complex response of socio-ecosystems. A comparative case study from France and Australia (1955-2040)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lereboullet, A.-L.; Beltrando, G.; Bardsley, D. K.

2012-04-01

The wine industry is very sensitive to extreme weather events, especially to temperatures above 35°C and drought. In a context of global climate change, Mediterranean climate regions are predicted to experience higher variability in rainfall and temperatures and an increased occurrence of extreme weather events. Some viticultural systems could be particularly at risk in those regions, considering their marginal position in the growth climatic range of Vitis vinifera, the long commercial lifespan of a vineyard, the high added-value of wine and the volatile nature of global markets. The wine industry, like other agricultural systems, is inserted in complex networks of climatic and non-climatic (other physical, economical, social and legislative) components, with constant feedbacks. We use a socio-ecosystem approach to analyse the adaptation of two Mediterranean viticultural systems to recent and future increase of extreme weather events. The present analysis focuses on two wine regions with a hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSb type in the Köppen classification): Côtes-du-Roussillon in southern France and McLaren Vale in southern Australia. Using climate data from two synoptic weather stations, Perpignan (France) and Adelaide (Australia), with time series running from 1955 to 2010, we highlight changes in rainfall patterns and an increase in the number of days with Tx >35°c since the last three decades in both regions. Climate models (DRIAS project data for France and CSIRO Mk3.5 for Australia) project similar trends in the future. To date, very few projects have focused on an international comparison of the adaptive capacity of viticultural systems to climate change with a holistic approach. Here, the analysis of climate data was complemented by twenty in-depth semi-structured interviews with key actors of the two regional wine industries, in order to analyse adaptation strategies put in place regarding recent climate evolution. This mixed-methods approach allows for a comprehensive assessment of adaptation capacity of the two viticultural systems to future climate change. The strategies of grape growers and wine producers focus on maintaining optimal yields and a constant wine style adapted to markets in a variable and uncertain climate. Their implementation and efficiency depend strongly on non-climatic factors. Thus, adaptation capacity to recent and future climate change depends strongly on adaptation to other non-climatic changes.

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming.

PubMed

Koven, Charles D; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-09-06

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH(4) emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO(2) by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO(2) fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH(4)/y to 41-70 Tg CH(4)/y, with increases due to CO(2) fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH(4) flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent.

Shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on land surface phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garonna, Irene; de Jong, Rogier; Stöckli, Reto; Schmid, Bernhard; Schenkel, David; Schimel, David; Schaepman, Michael E.

2018-02-01

Land surface phenology (LSP), the study of seasonal dynamics of vegetated land surfaces from remote sensing, is a key indicator of global change, that both responds to and influences weather and climate. The effects of climatic changes on LSP depend on the relative importance of climatic constraints in specific regions—which are not well understood at global scale. Understanding the climatic constraints that underlie LSP is crucial for explaining climate change effects on global vegetation phenology. We used a combination of modelled and remotely-sensed vegetation activity records to quantify the interplay of three climatic constraints on land surface phenology (namely minimum temperature, moisture availability, and photoperiod), as well as the dynamic nature of these constraints. Our study examined trends and the relative importance of the three constrains at the start and the end of the growing season over eight global environmental zones, for the past three decades. Our analysis revealed widespread shifts in the relative importance of climatic constraints in the temperate and boreal biomes during the 1982-2011 period. These changes in the relative importance of the three climatic constraints, which ranged up to 8% since 1982 levels, varied with latitude and between start and end of the growing season. We found a reduced influence of minimum temperature on start and end of season in all environmental zones considered, with a biome-dependent effect on moisture and photoperiod constraints. For the end of season, we report that the influence of moisture has on average increased for both the temperate and boreal biomes over 8.99 million km2. A shifting relative importance of climatic constraints on LSP has implications both for understanding changes and for improving how they may be modelled at large scales.

An ecohydrological sketch of climate change impacts on water and natural ecosystems for the Netherlands: bridging the gap between science and society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Witte, J. P. M.; Runhaar, J.; van Ek, R.; van der Hoek, D. C. J.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Batelaan, O.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Wassen, M. J.; van der Zee, S. E. A. T. M.

2012-11-01

For policy making and spatial planning, information is needed about the impacts of climate change on natural ecosystems. To provide this information, commonly hydrological and ecological models are used. We give arguments for our assessment that modelling only is insufficient for determining the impacts of climate changes on natural ecosystems at regional scales. Instead, we proposed a combination of hydrological simulations, a literature review and process-knowledge on climate-hydrology-vegetation interactions, to compile a sketch map that indicates climate change effects on a number of ecosystems in the Netherlands. Soon after a first version of our sketch map was published by a Dutch professional journal, copies appeared in policy documents, and also in a commercial and popular atlas of the Netherlands. Moreover, the map led to a question in the Dutch parliament about the sustainability of bog reserves under the future climate. Apparently, there was an urgent need for the information provided by the map. The map shows that climate change will presumably have the largest influence on ecosystems in the Netherlands that depend on precipitation as the major water source, like heathlands, dry grasslands, rain-fed moorland pools and raised bogs. Also highly susceptible are fens in reserves surrounded by deeply drained polders, because such fens depend on the inlet of surface water, of which quality is likely to deteriorate upon climate change. While the map is indicative for directions of change, in view of the uncertainties of our study, no conclusions should be drawn that may have far-reaching consequences, such as giving up certain nature targets that might no longer be feasible in the future climate. Instead, we advise to anticipate the potential threats from climate change by taking a number of adaptation measures that enhance the robustness of nature reserves. To improve climate change projections on hydrology and ecosystems, future research should especially focus on feedbacks of vegetation on the water balance, on processes that directly influence plant performance and on the ecological effects of weather extremes.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

PubMed

Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

2013-10-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

PubMed Central

Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

2013-01-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

Long-range climate impacts on crop yield and the implications of enacting global carbon mitigation policies

EPA Science Inventory

Research on climate impacts and agriculture over the past two decades has applied simulation models at a range of scales and future climate scenarios, finding that crop growth and yield responds to changing climate conditions, and that the impacts are regional and highly depende...

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald-Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

2011-08-01

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

Threshold effects in the vegetation response to Holocene climate changes in central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.

2015-12-01

Understanding the response of ecosystems to past climate is critical for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes. A relatively abrupt vegetation shift in response to the late Holocene gradual climate changes has been well documented for the Sahara-Sahel ecosystem. However, whether such threshold shift is of universal significance remains to be further addressed. Here, we examine the vegetation-climate relationships in central Asia based on four newly recovered Holocene pollen records and a synthesis on previously published pollen data. The results show that the orbital-induced gradual climate trend during the Holocene led to two major abrupt vegetation shifts, and that the timings of these shifts are highly dependent of the local rainfall conditions. Instead, the mid-Holocene vegetation remained rather stable despite of the changing climate. These new findings demonstrate generally significant threshold and truncation effects of climate changes on vegetation, as are strongly supported by surface pollen data and LPJ-GUESS modeling. The results also imply that using pollen data to reconstruct past climate changes is not always straightforward. Our findings have important implication for understanding the potential effects of global warming on dryland ecosystem change.

Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

2012-01-01

Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The second cross-cutting topic is the rapidly advancing field of climate adaptation, where there has been significant progress in developing the conceptual framework, planning approaches, and strategies for safeguarding biodiversity and other ecological resources. At the same time, ecosystem-based adaptation is becoming more prominent as a way to utilize ecosystem services to help human systems adapt to climate change. In this summary, we present key findings of the technical input, focusing on themes that can be found throughout the report. Thus, this summary takes a more integrated look at the question of how climate change is affecting our ecological resources, the implications for humans, and possible response strategies. This integrated approach better reflects the impacts of climate in the real world, where changes in ecosystem structure or function will alter the viability of different species and the efficacy of ecosystem services. Likewise, adaptation to climate change will simultaneously address a range of conservation goals. Case studies are used to illustrate this complete picture throughout the report; a snapshot of one case study, 2011 Las Conchas, New Mexico Fire, is included in this summary.

Climate change and habitat conversion favour the same species.

PubMed

Frishkoff, Luke O; Karp, Daniel S; Flanders, Jon R; Zook, Jim; Hadly, Elizabeth A; Daily, Gretchen C; M'Gonigle, Leithen K

2016-09-01

Land-use change and climate change are driving a global biodiversity crisis. Yet, how species' responses to climate change are correlated with their responses to land-use change is poorly understood. Here, we assess the linkages between climate and land-use change on birds in Neotropical forest and agriculture. Across > 300 species, we show that affiliation with drier climates is associated with an ability to persist in and colonise agriculture. Further, species shift their habitat use along a precipitation gradient: species prefer forest in drier regions, but use agriculture more in wetter zones. Finally, forest-dependent species that avoid agriculture are most likely to experience decreases in habitable range size if current drying trends in the Neotropics continue as predicted. This linkage suggests a synergy between the primary drivers of biodiversity loss. Because they favour the same species, climate and land-use change will likely homogenise biodiversity more severely than otherwise anticipated. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

On a collision course: competition and dispersal differences create no-analogue communities and cause extinctions during climate change

PubMed Central

Urban, Mark C.; Tewksbury, Josh J.; Sheldon, Kimberly S.

2012-01-01

Most climate change predictions omit species interactions and interspecific variation in dispersal. Here, we develop a model of multiple competing species along a warming climatic gradient that includes temperature-dependent competition, differences in niche breadth and interspecific differences in dispersal ability. Competition and dispersal differences decreased diversity and produced so-called ‘no-analogue’ communities, defined as a novel combination of species that does not currently co-occur. Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, when mean community-wide dispersal rates were low and when species differed in dispersal abilities. With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction. Overall, competition slowed the advance of colonists into newly suitable habitats, creating lags in climate tracking. We predict that climate change will most threaten communities of species that have narrow niches (e.g. tropics), vary in dispersal (most communities) and compete strongly. Current forecasts probably underestimate climate change impacts on biodiversity by neglecting competition and dispersal differences. PMID:22217718

Simulating effects of fire disturbance and climate change on boreal forest productivity and evapotranspiration.

PubMed

Kang, Sinkyu; Kimball, John S; Running, Steven W

2006-06-01

We used a terrestrial ecosystem process model, BIOME-BGC, to investigate historical climate change and fire disturbance effects on regional carbon and water budgets within a 357,500 km(2) portion of the Canadian boreal forest. Historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change, and regional fire activity were used as model drivers to evaluate the relative effects of these impacts to spatial patterns and temporal trends in forest net primary production (NPP) and evapotranspiration (ET). Historical trends of increasing atmospheric CO2 resulted in overall 13% and 5% increases in annual NPP and ET from 1994 to 1996, respectively. NPP was found to be relatively sensitive to changes in air temperature (T(a)), while ET was more sensitive to precipitation (P) change within the ranges of observed climate variability (e.g., +/-2 degrees C for T(a) and +/-20% for P). In addition, the potential effect of climate change related warming on NPP is exacerbated or offset depending on whether these changes are accompanied by respective decreases or increases in precipitation. Historical fire activity generally resulted in reductions of both NPP and ET, which consumed an average of approximately 6% of annual NPP from 1959 to 1996. Areas currently occupied by dry conifer forests were found to be subject to more frequent fire activity, which consumed approximately 8% of annual NPP. The results of this study show that the North American boreal ecosystem is sensitive to historical patterns of increasing atmospheric CO2, climate change and regional fire activity. The relative impacts of these disturbances on NPP and ET interact in complex ways and are spatially variable depending on regional land cover and climate gradients.

Long-Term Field Data and Climate-Habitat Models Show That Orangutan Persistence Depends on Effective Forest Management and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation

PubMed Central

Gregory, Stephen D.; Brook, Barry W.; Goossens, Benoît; Ancrenaz, Marc; Alfred, Raymond; Ambu, Laurentius N.; Fordham, Damien A.

2012-01-01

Background Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world’s highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation. Methodology/Principal Findings Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000–10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions. Conclusions/Significance We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government’s proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests. PMID:22970145

Long-term field data and climate-habitat models show that orangutan persistence depends on effective forest management and greenhouse gas mitigation.

PubMed

Gregory, Stephen D; Brook, Barry W; Goossens, Benoît; Ancrenaz, Marc; Alfred, Raymond; Ambu, Laurentius N; Fordham, Damien A

2012-01-01

Southeast Asian deforestation rates are among the world's highest and threaten to drive many forest-dependent species to extinction. Climate change is expected to interact with deforestation to amplify this risk. Here we examine whether regional incentives for sustainable forest management will be effective in improving threatened mammal conservation, in isolation and when combined with global climate change mitigation. Using a long time-series of orangutan nest counts for Sabah (2000-10), Malaysian Borneo, we evaluated the effect of sustainable forest management and climate change scenarios, and their interaction, on orangutan spatial abundance patterns. By linking dynamic land-cover and downscaled global climate model projections, we determine the relative influence of these factors on orangutan spatial abundance and use the resulting statistical models to identify habitat crucial for their long-term conservation. We show that land-cover change the degradation of primary forest had the greatest influence on orangutan population size. Anticipated climate change was predicted to cause reductions in abundance in currently occupied populations due to decreased habitat suitability, but also to promote population growth in western Sabah by increasing the suitability of presently unoccupied regions. We find strong quantitative support for the Sabah government's proposal to implement sustainable forest management in all its forest reserves during the current decade; failure to do so could result in a 40 to 80 per cent regional decline in orangutan abundance by 2100. The Sabah orangutan is just one (albeit iconic) example of a forest-dependent species that stands to benefit from sustainable forest management, which promotes conservation of existing forests.

Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology.

PubMed

Gienapp, Phillip; Reed, Thomas E; Visser, Marcel E

2014-10-22

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Invertebrates, ecosystem services and climate change.

PubMed

Prather, Chelse M; Pelini, Shannon L; Laws, Angela; Rivest, Emily; Woltz, Megan; Bloch, Christopher P; Del Toro, Israel; Ho, Chuan-Kai; Kominoski, John; Newbold, T A Scott; Parsons, Sheena; Joern, A

2013-05-01

The sustainability of ecosystem services depends on a firm understanding of both how organisms provide these services to humans and how these organisms will be altered with a changing climate. Unquestionably a dominant feature of most ecosystems, invertebrates affect many ecosystem services and are also highly responsive to climate change. However, there is still a basic lack of understanding of the direct and indirect paths by which invertebrates influence ecosystem services, as well as how climate change will affect those ecosystem services by altering invertebrate populations. This indicates a lack of communication and collaboration among scientists researching ecosystem services and climate change effects on invertebrates, and land managers and researchers from other disciplines, which becomes obvious when systematically reviewing the literature relevant to invertebrates, ecosystem services, and climate change. To address this issue, we review how invertebrates respond to climate change. We then review how invertebrates both positively and negatively influence ecosystem services. Lastly, we provide some critical future directions for research needs, and suggest ways in which managers, scientists and other researchers may collaborate to tackle the complex issue of sustaining invertebrate-mediated services under a changing climate. © 2012 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Assessing Climate Change Perceptions, Management Strategies, and Information Needs for Indiana Agricultural and Forestry Sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cherkauer, K. A.; Chin, N.

2016-12-01

The agricultural and forestry sectors in the state of Indiana are highly dependent on climate and, subsequently, highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Higher temperatures, shifts in precipitation patterns, more widespread prevalence of pests and pathogens, and increased frequency and severity of extreme weather events could all have negative effects on these two sectors in the future. Agricultural and forest producers are already modifying their management strategies in response to perceptions of changes in climate risk, but such responses have been primarily reactive in nature and, in many cases, demonstrate a disconnect between scientific findings and stakeholder perceptions of the greatest climate risks. This research has been conducted to help improve understanding of climate change risks to agriculture and forestry in Indiana; stakeholder perceptions of climate risks and their current management strategies; and the effectiveness of these management strategies for dealing with current and future climate risk. Sector-specific focus groups, expert panel assessments and surveys have all been utilized in this work, which will also contribute to the new Indiana Climate Change Impacts Assessment report.

INTERACTIVE EFFECTS OF SOLAR UV RADIATION AND CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIOGEOCHEMICAL CYCLING

EPA Science Inventory

This paper assesses research on the interactions of UV radiation (280-400 nm) and global climate change with global biogeochemical cycles at the Earth's surface. The effects of UV-B (280-315 nm), which are dependent on the stratospheric ozone layer, on biogeochemical cycles are o...

Climate change in Asia and the Pacific: How can countries adapt?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The Asia Pacific (AP) region is more vulnerable to climate change risks than other regions, given its dependence on the natural resources and agricultural sector for economic development with densely populated coastal areas, weak institutions, and the poverty of a considerable proportion of its popu...

Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.

2009-04-01

The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions—one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

Treesearch

Lisa A. McCauley; Christine A. Ribic; Lars Y. Pomara; Benjamin Zuckerberg

2017-01-01

Context Temperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few...

Quantitative approaches in climate change ecology

PubMed Central

Brown, Christopher J; Schoeman, David S; Sydeman, William J; Brander, Keith; Buckley, Lauren B; Burrows, Michael; Duarte, Carlos M; Moore, Pippa J; Pandolfi, John M; Poloczanska, Elvira; Venables, William; Richardson, Anthony J

2011-01-01

Contemporary impacts of anthropogenic climate change on ecosystems are increasingly being recognized. Documenting the extent of these impacts requires quantitative tools for analyses of ecological observations to distinguish climate impacts in noisy data and to understand interactions between climate variability and other drivers of change. To assist the development of reliable statistical approaches, we review the marine climate change literature and provide suggestions for quantitative approaches in climate change ecology. We compiled 267 peer-reviewed articles that examined relationships between climate change and marine ecological variables. Of the articles with time series data (n = 186), 75% used statistics to test for a dependency of ecological variables on climate variables. We identified several common weaknesses in statistical approaches, including marginalizing other important non-climate drivers of change, ignoring temporal and spatial autocorrelation, averaging across spatial patterns and not reporting key metrics. We provide a list of issues that need to be addressed to make inferences more defensible, including the consideration of (i) data limitations and the comparability of data sets; (ii) alternative mechanisms for change; (iii) appropriate response variables; (iv) a suitable model for the process under study; (v) temporal autocorrelation; (vi) spatial autocorrelation and patterns; and (vii) the reporting of rates of change. While the focus of our review was marine studies, these suggestions are equally applicable to terrestrial studies. Consideration of these suggestions will help advance global knowledge of climate impacts and understanding of the processes driving ecological change.

Threat to future global food security from climate change and ozone air pollution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, Amos P. K.; Martin, Maria Val; Heald, Colette L.

2014-09-01

Future food production is highly vulnerable to both climate change and air pollution with implications for global food security. Climate change adaptation and ozone regulation have been identified as important strategies to safeguard food production, but little is known about how climate and ozone pollution interact to affect agriculture, nor the relative effectiveness of these two strategies for different crops and regions. Here we present an integrated analysis of the individual and combined effects of 2000-2050 climate change and ozone trends on the production of four major crops (wheat, rice, maize and soybean) worldwide based on historical observations and model projections, specifically accounting for ozone-temperature co-variation. The projections exclude the effect of rising CO2, which has complex and potentially offsetting impacts on global food supply. We show that warming reduces global crop production by >10% by 2050 with a potential to substantially worsen global malnutrition in all scenarios considered. Ozone trends either exacerbate or offset a substantial fraction of climate impacts depending on the scenario, suggesting the importance of air quality management in agricultural planning. Furthermore, we find that depending on region some crops are primarily sensitive to either ozone (for example, wheat) or heat (for example, maize) alone, providing a measure of relative benefits of climate adaptation versus ozone regulation for food security in different regions.

Global Change and Human Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases

PubMed Central

Sutherst, Robert W.

2004-01-01

Global change includes climate change and climate variability, land use, water storage and irrigation, human population growth and urbanization, trade and travel, and chemical pollution. Impacts on vector-borne diseases, including malaria, dengue fever, infections by other arboviruses, schistosomiasis, trypanosomiasis, onchocerciasis, and leishmaniasis are reviewed. While climate change is global in nature and poses unknown future risks to humans and natural ecosystems, other local changes are occurring more rapidly on a global scale and are having significant effects on vector-borne diseases. History is invaluable as a pointer to future risks, but direct extrapolation is no longer possible because the climate is changing. Researchers are therefore embracing computer simulation models and global change scenarios to explore the risks. Credible ranking of the extent to which different vector-borne diseases will be affected awaits a rigorous analysis. Adaptation to the changes is threatened by the ongoing loss of drugs and pesticides due to the selection of resistant strains of pathogens and vectors. The vulnerability of communities to the changes in impacts depends on their adaptive capacity, which requires both appropriate technology and responsive public health systems. The availability of resources in turn depends on social stability, economic wealth, and priority allocation of resources to public health. PMID:14726459

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

PubMed

Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

2006-02-01

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

Estimating the Impact and Spillover Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northern Ghana.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botchway, E.

2016-12-01

In tropical regions of the world human-induced climate change is likely to impact negatively on crop yields. To investigate the impact of climate change and its spillover effect on mean and variance of crop yields in northern Ghana, the Just and Pope stochastic production function and the Spatial Durbin model were adopted. Surprisingly, the results suggest that both precipitation and average temperature have positive effects on mean crop yield during the wet season. Wet season average temperature has a significant spillover effect in the region, whereas precipitation during the wet season has only one significant spillover effect on maize yield. Wet season precipitation does not have a strong significant effect on crop yield despite the rainfed nature of agriculture in the region. Thus, even if there are losers and winners as a result of future climate change at the regional level, future crop yield would largely depend on future technological development in agriculture, which may improve yields over time despite the changing climate. We argue, therefore, that technical improvement in farm management such as improved seeds and fertilizers, conservation tillage and better pest control, may have a more significant role in increasing observed crop productivity levels over time. So investigating the relative importance of non-climatic factors on crop yield may shed more light on where appropriate interventions can help in improving crop yields. Climate change, also, needs to be urgently assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation.

Evolutionary response of landraces to climate change in centers of crop diversity

PubMed Central

Mercer, Kristin L; Perales, Hugo R

2010-01-01

Landraces cultivated in centers of crop diversity result from past and contemporary patterns of natural and farmer-mediated evolutionary forces. Successful in situ conservation of crop genetic resources depends on continuity of these evolutionary processes. Climate change is projected to affect agricultural production, yet analyses of impacts on in situ conservation of crop genetic diversity and farmers who conserve it have been absent. How will crop landraces respond to alterations in climate? We review the roles that phenotypic plasticity, evolution, and gene flow might play in sustaining production, although we might expect erosion of genetic diversity if landrace populations or entire races lose productivity. For example, highland maize landraces in southern Mexico do not express the plasticity necessary to sustain productivity under climate change, but may evolve in response to altered conditions. The outcome for any given crop in a given region will depend on the distribution of genetic variation that affects fitness and patterns of climate change. Understanding patterns of neutral and adaptive diversity from the population to the landscape scale is essential to clarify how landraces conserved in situ will continue to evolve and how to minimize genetic erosion of this essential natural resource. PMID:25567941

Evolutionary response of landraces to climate change in centers of crop diversity.

PubMed

Mercer, Kristin L; Perales, Hugo R

2010-09-01

Landraces cultivated in centers of crop diversity result from past and contemporary patterns of natural and farmer-mediated evolutionary forces. Successful in situ conservation of crop genetic resources depends on continuity of these evolutionary processes. Climate change is projected to affect agricultural production, yet analyses of impacts on in situ conservation of crop genetic diversity and farmers who conserve it have been absent. How will crop landraces respond to alterations in climate? We review the roles that phenotypic plasticity, evolution, and gene flow might play in sustaining production, although we might expect erosion of genetic diversity if landrace populations or entire races lose productivity. For example, highland maize landraces in southern Mexico do not express the plasticity necessary to sustain productivity under climate change, but may evolve in response to altered conditions. The outcome for any given crop in a given region will depend on the distribution of genetic variation that affects fitness and patterns of climate change. Understanding patterns of neutral and adaptive diversity from the population to the landscape scale is essential to clarify how landraces conserved in situ will continue to evolve and how to minimize genetic erosion of this essential natural resource.

The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

2012-01-01

Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around -20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by -6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

Anthropogenic Climate Change in Asia: Key Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.

2009-12-01

The energy, agricultural, and water sectors in Asia, a vast continent that comprises more than half of the world's population, are crucially vulnerable to shifts in climate. The acceleration of economic development in Asia over the past few decades, the dependence of its huge agricultural economy on rainfall, and its growing energy demands have thrust climate change and its impacts squarely into important sectors of the Asian society. Further, it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over the Asian continent (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) [2007]; see Figure 1a). Asian megacities are already witnessing stresses in food, water, transportation, health, and air quality. The situation could become even worse with projected changes in temperature and rainfall in the 21st century, coupled with the likelihood that climate change will exacerbate extremes.

Possibilities and limitations of using historic provenance tests to infer forest species growth responses to climate change

Treesearch

Laura P. Leites; Gerald E. Rehfeldt; Andrew P. Robinson; Nicholas L. Crookston; Barry Jaquish

2012-01-01

Under projected changes in global climate, the growth and survival of existing forests will depend on their ability to adjust physiologically in response to environmental change. Quantifying their capacity to adjust and whether the response is species- or population-specific is important to guide forest management strategies. New analyses of historic provenance tests...

Modeling and predicting vegetation response of western USA grasslands, shrublands, and deserts to climate change (Chapter 1)

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Marcus V. Warwell; Jeanne C. Chambers; Stanley G. Kitchen

2012-01-01

Experimental research and species distribution modeling predict large changes in the distributions of species and vegetation types in the Interior West due to climate change. Species’ responses will depend not only on their physiological tolerances but also on their phenology, establishment properties, biotic interactions, and capacity to evolve and migrate. Because...

The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions.

PubMed

Matthews, H Damon; Gillett, Nathan P; Stott, Peter A; Zickfeld, Kirsten

2009-06-11

The global temperature response to increasing atmospheric CO(2) is often quantified by metrics such as equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response. These approaches, however, do not account for carbon cycle feedbacks and therefore do not fully represent the net response of the Earth system to anthropogenic CO(2) emissions. Climate-carbon modelling experiments have shown that: (1) the warming per unit CO(2) emitted does not depend on the background CO(2) concentration; (2) the total allowable emissions for climate stabilization do not depend on the timing of those emissions; and (3) the temperature response to a pulse of CO(2) is approximately constant on timescales of decades to centuries. Here we generalize these results and show that the carbon-climate response (CCR), defined as the ratio of temperature change to cumulative carbon emissions, is approximately independent of both the atmospheric CO(2) concentration and its rate of change on these timescales. From observational constraints, we estimate CCR to be in the range 1.0-2.1 degrees C per trillion tonnes of carbon (Tt C) emitted (5th to 95th percentiles), consistent with twenty-first-century CCR values simulated by climate-carbon models. Uncertainty in land-use CO(2) emissions and aerosol forcing, however, means that higher observationally constrained values cannot be excluded. The CCR, when evaluated from climate-carbon models under idealized conditions, represents a simple yet robust metric for comparing models, which aggregates both climate feedbacks and carbon cycle feedbacks. CCR is also likely to be a useful concept for climate change mitigation and policy; by combining the uncertainties associated with climate sensitivity, carbon sinks and climate-carbon feedbacks into a single quantity, the CCR allows CO(2)-induced global mean temperature change to be inferred directly from cumulative carbon emissions.

Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

PubMed

Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

2013-01-15

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change impacts on crop yield and quality with CO2 fertilization in China

PubMed Central

Erda, Lin; Wei, Xiong; Hui, Ju; Yinlong, Xu; Yue, Li; Liping, Bai; Liyong, Xie

2005-01-01

A regional climate change model (PRECIS) for China, developed by the UK's Hadley Centre, was used to simulate China's climate and to develop climate change scenarios for the country. Results from this project suggest that, depending on the level of future emissions, the average annual temperature increase in China by the end of the twenty-first century may be between 3 and 4 °C. Regional crop models were driven by PRECIS output to predict changes in yields of key Chinese food crops: rice, maize and wheat. Modelling suggests that climate change without carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization could reduce the rice, maize and wheat yields by up to 37% in the next 20–80 years. Interactions of CO2 with limiting factors, especially water and nitrogen, are increasingly well understood and capable of strongly modulating observed growth responses in crops. More complete reporting of free-air carbon enrichment experiments than was possible in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Third Assessment Report confirms that CO2 enrichment under field conditions consistently increases biomass and yields in the range of 5–15%, with CO2 concentration elevated to 550 ppm Levels of CO2 that are elevated to more than 450 ppm will probably cause some deleterious effects in grain quality. It seems likely that the extent of the CO2 fertilization effect will depend upon other factors such as optimum breeding, irrigation and nutrient applications. PMID:16433100

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses.

PubMed

Garcia, Elizabeth S; Swann, Abigail L S; Villegas, Juan C; Breshears, David D; Law, Darin J; Saleska, Scott R; Stark, Scott C

2016-01-01

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.

The fate of Amazonian ecosystems over the coming century arising from changes in climate, atmospheric CO2, and land use.

PubMed

Zhang, Ke; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D; Galbraith, David R; Moghim, Sanaz; Levine, Naomi M; Bras, Rafael L; Coe, Michael T; Costa, Marcos H; Malhi, Yadvinder; Longo, Marcos; Knox, Ryan G; McKnight, Shawna; Wang, Jingfeng; Moorcroft, Paul R

2015-02-20

There is considerable interest in understanding the fate of the Amazon over the coming century in the face of climate change, rising atmospheric CO 2 levels, ongoing land transformation, and changing fire regimes within the region. In this analysis, we explore the fate of Amazonian ecosystems under the combined impact of these four environmental forcings using three terrestrial biosphere models (ED2, IBIS, and JULES) forced by three bias-corrected IPCC AR4 climate projections (PCM1, CCSM3, and HadCM3) under two land-use change scenarios. We assess the relative roles of climate change, CO 2 fertilization, land-use change, and fire in driving the projected changes in Amazonian biomass and forest extent. Our results indicate that the impacts of climate change are primarily determined by the direction and severity of projected changes in regional precipitation: under the driest climate projection, climate change alone is predicted to reduce Amazonian forest cover by an average of 14%. However, the models predict that CO 2 fertilization will enhance vegetation productivity and alleviate climate-induced increases in plant water stress, and, as a result, sustain high biomass forests, even under the driest climate scenario. Land-use change and climate-driven changes in fire frequency are predicted to cause additional aboveground biomass loss and reductions in forest extent. The relative impact of land use and fire dynamics compared to climate and CO 2 impacts varies considerably, depending on both the climate and land-use scenario, and on the terrestrial biosphere model used, highlighting the importance of improved quantitative understanding of all four factors - climate change, CO 2 fertilization effects, fire, and land use - to the fate of the Amazon over the coming century. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Utilizing the social media data to validate 'climate change' indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2013-12-01

Reporting the observed and modeled changes in climate to public requires the measures understandable by the general audience. E.g., the NASA GISS Common Sense Climate Index (Hansen et al., 1998) reports the change in climate based on six practically observable parameters such as the air temperature exceeding the norm by one standard deviation. The utility of the constructed indices for reporting climate change depends, however, on an assumption that the selected parameters are felt and connected with the changing climate by a non-expert, which needs to be validated. Dynamic discussion of climate change issues in social media may provide data for this validation. We connected the intensity of public discussion of climate change in social networks with regional weather variations for the territory of the USA. We collected the entire 2012 population of Twitter microblogging activity on climate change topic, accumulating over 1.8 million separate records (tweets) globally. We identified the geographic location of the tweets and associated the daily and weekly intensity of twitting with the following parameters of weather for these locations: temperature anomalies, 'hot' temperature anomalies, 'cold' temperature anomalies, heavy rain/snow events. To account for non-weather related events we included the articles on climate change from the 'prestige press', a collection of major newspapers. We found that the regional changes in parameters of weather significantly affect the number of tweets published on climate change. This effect, however, is short-lived and varies throughout the country. We found that in different locations different weather parameters had the most significant effect on climate change microblogging activity. Overall 'hot' temperature anomalies had significant influence on climate change twitting intensity.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

PubMed

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes

PubMed Central

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C.; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18–20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts. PMID:26177097

The USDA Southern Plains Climate Hub: Regional agricultural management in the context of weather and climate variability and change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the Southern Great Plains of the United States, extremes of weather and climate are the norm. Farmers, ranchers, and foresters rely upon timely and authoritative data and information when making management decisions that are weather- and climate-dependent. In response to the needs of these agricu...

Is There Any Hope? How Climate Change News Imagery and Text Influence Audience Emotions and Support for Climate Mitigation Policies.

PubMed

Feldman, Lauren; Hart, P Sol

2018-03-01

Using a national sample, this study experimentally tests the effects of news visuals and texts that emphasize either the causes and impacts of climate change or actions that can be taken to address climate change. We test the effects of variations in text and imagery on discrete emotions (i.e., hope, fear, and anger) and, indirectly, on support for climate mitigation policies. Political ideology is examined as a moderator. The findings indicate that news images and texts that focus on climate-oriented actions can increase hope and, in the case of texts, decrease fear and anger, and these effects generally hold across the ideological spectrum. In turn, the influence of emotions on policy support depends on ideology: Hope and fear increase support for climate policies for all ideological groups but particularly conservatives, whereas anger polarizes the opinions of liberals and conservatives. Implications for climate change communication that appeals to emotions are discussed. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands.

PubMed

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R; Bradford, John B; Lauenroth, William K; Hall, Sonia A; Duniway, Michael C; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M; Pyke, David A; Wilson, Scott D

2017-07-01

Drylands occur worldwide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change because dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability and change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding. We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation. Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change-induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, that is, leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change-induced vegetation shifts lead to more ecological droughts despite projected rainfall increases in many global temperate drylands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tietjen, Britta; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Laurenroth, William K.; Hall, Sonia A.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hochstrasser, Tamara; Jia, Gensuo; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Wilson, Scott D.

2017-01-01

Drylands occur world-wide and are particularly vulnerable to climate change since dryland ecosystems depend directly on soil water availability that may become increasingly limited as temperatures rise. Climate change will both directly impact soil water availability, and also change plant biomass, with resulting indirect feedbacks on soil moisture. Thus, the net impact of direct and indirect climate change effects on soil moisture requires better understanding.We used the ecohydrological simulation model SOILWAT at sites from temperate dryland ecosystems around the globe to disentangle the contributions of direct climate change effects and of additional indirect, climate change-induced changes in vegetation on soil water availability. We simulated current and future climate conditions projected by 16 GCMs under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for the end of the century. We determined shifts in water availability due to climate change alone and due to combined changes of climate and the growth form and biomass of vegetation.Vegetation change will mostly exacerbate low soil water availability in regions already expected to suffer from negative direct impacts of climate change (with the two RCP scenarios giving us qualitatively similar effects). By contrast, in regions that will likely experience increased water availability due to climate change alone, vegetation changes will counteract these increases due to increased water losses by interception. In only a small minority of locations, climate change induced vegetation changes may lead to a net increase in water availability. These results suggest that changes in vegetation in response to climate change may exacerbate drought conditions and may dampen the effects of increased precipitation, i.e. leading to more ecological droughts despite higher precipitation in some regions. Our results underscore the value of considering indirect effects of climate change on vegetation when assessing future soil moisture conditions in water-limited ecosystems.

Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios

PubMed Central

Parham, Paul E.; Hughes, Dyfrig A.

2015-01-01

Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change. PMID:25688017

Modeling Soil Carbon Dynamics in Northern Forests: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Aggregation of Climatic Input Data.

PubMed

Dalsgaard, Lise; Astrup, Rasmus; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Borgen, Signe Kynding; Breidenbach, Johannes; Lange, Holger; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Liski, Jari

2016-01-01

Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960-2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60-70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly increasing temperatures.

Modeling Soil Carbon Dynamics in Northern Forests: Effects of Spatial and Temporal Aggregation of Climatic Input Data

PubMed Central

Dalsgaard, Lise; Astrup, Rasmus; Antón-Fernández, Clara; Borgen, Signe Kynding; Breidenbach, Johannes; Lange, Holger; Lehtonen, Aleksi; Liski, Jari

2016-01-01

Boreal forests contain 30% of the global forest carbon with the majority residing in soils. While challenging to quantify, soil carbon changes comprise a significant, and potentially increasing, part of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Thus, their estimation is important when designing forest-based climate change mitigation strategies and soil carbon change estimates are required for the reporting of greenhouse gas emissions. Organic matter decomposition varies with climate in complex nonlinear ways, rendering data aggregation nontrivial. Here, we explored the effects of temporal and spatial aggregation of climatic and litter input data on regional estimates of soil organic carbon stocks and changes for upland forests. We used the soil carbon and decomposition model Yasso07 with input from the Norwegian National Forest Inventory (11275 plots, 1960–2012). Estimates were produced at three spatial and three temporal scales. Results showed that a national level average soil carbon stock estimate varied by 10% depending on the applied spatial and temporal scale of aggregation. Higher stocks were found when applying plot-level input compared to country-level input and when long-term climate was used as compared to annual or 5-year mean values. A national level estimate for soil carbon change was similar across spatial scales, but was considerably (60–70%) lower when applying annual or 5-year mean climate compared to long-term mean climate reflecting the recent climatic changes in Norway. This was particularly evident for the forest-dominated districts in the southeastern and central parts of Norway and in the far north. We concluded that the sensitivity of model estimates to spatial aggregation will depend on the region of interest. Further, that using long-term climate averages during periods with strong climatic trends results in large differences in soil carbon estimates. The largest differences in this study were observed in central and northern regions with strongly increasing temperatures. PMID:26901763

Biophysical and Economic Uncertainty in the Analysis of Poverty Impacts of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, T. W.; Lobell, D. B.; Verma, M.

2011-12-01

This paper seeks to understand the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the impacts of climate change on agricultural output, international trade, and poverty. We incorporate biophysical uncertainty by sampling from a distribution of global climate model predictions for temperature and precipitation for 2050. The implications of these realizations for crop yields around the globe are estimated using the recently published statistical crop yield functions provided by Lobell, Schlenker and Costa-Roberts (2011). By comparing these yields to those predicted under current climate, we obtain the likely change in crop yields owing to climate change. The economic uncertainty in our analysis relates to the response of the global economic system to these biophysical shocks. We use a modified version of the GTAP model to elicit the impact of the biophysical shocks on global patterns of production, consumption, trade and poverty. Uncertainty in these responses is reflected in the econometrically estimated parameters governing the responsiveness of international trade, consumption, production (and hence the intensive margin of supply response), and factor supplies (which govern the extensive margin of supply response). We sample from the distributions of these parameters as specified by Hertel et al. (2007) and Keeney and Hertel (2009). We find that, even though it is difficult to predict where in the world agricultural crops will be favorably affected by climate change, the responses of economic variables, including output and exports can be far more robust (Table 1). This is due to the fact that supply and demand decisions depend on relative prices, and relative prices depend on productivity changes relative to other crops in a given region, or relative to similar crops in other parts of the world. We also find that uncertainty in poverty impacts of climate change appears to be almost entirely driven by biophysical uncertainty.

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hayhoe, K.; Cayan, D.; Field, C.B.; Frumhoff, P.C.; Maurer, E.P.; Miller, N.L.; Moser, S.C.; Schneider, S.H.; Cahill, K.N.; Cleland, E.E.; Dale, L.; Drapek, R.; Hanemann, R.M.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Lenihan, J.; Lunch, C.K.; Neilson, R.P.; Sheridan, S.C.; Verville, J.H.

2004-01-01

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

Study of phase clustering method for analyzing large volumes of meteorological observation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Volkov, Yu. V.; Krutikov, V. A.; Botygin, I. A.; Sherstnev, V. S.; Sherstneva, A. I.

2017-11-01

The article describes an iterative parallel phase grouping algorithm for temperature field classification. The algorithm is based on modified method of structure forming by using analytic signal. The developed method allows to solve tasks of climate classification as well as climatic zoning for any time or spatial scale. When used to surface temperature measurement series, the developed algorithm allows to find climatic structures with correlated changes of temperature field, to make conclusion on climate uniformity in a given area and to overview climate changes over time by analyzing offset in type groups. The information on climate type groups specific for selected geographical areas is expanded by genetic scheme of class distribution depending on change in mutual correlation level between ground temperature monthly average.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming.

PubMed

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-04-20

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming.

Scenario dependence of future changes in climate extremes under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Zhang, Xiaoye; Zhang, Hua; Liu, Liangke; Xu, Yangyang

2017-01-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to limit global warming below 2 °C and pursue efforts to even limit it to 1.5 °C relative to pre-industrial levels. Decision makers need reliable information on the impacts caused by these warming levels for climate mitigation and adaptation measures. We explore the changes in climate extremes, which are closely tied to economic losses and casualties, under 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming and their scenario dependence using three sets of ensemble global climate model simulations. A warming of 0.5 °C (from 1.5 °C to 2 °C) leads to significant increases in temperature and precipitation extremes in most regions. However, the projected changes in climate extremes under both warming levels highly depend on the pathways of emissions scenarios, with different greenhouse gas (GHG)/aerosol forcing ratio and GHG levels. Moreover, there are multifold differences in several heavily polluted regions, among the scenarios, in the changes in precipitation extremes due to an additional 0.5 °C warming from 1.5 °C to 2 °C. Our results demonstrate that the chemical compositions of emissions scenarios, not just the total radiative forcing and resultant warming level, must be considered when assessing the impacts of global 1.5/2 °C warming. PMID:28425445

On the distortion of elevation dependent warming signals by quantile mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jury, Martin W.; Mendlik, Thomas; Maraun, Douglas

2017-04-01

Elevation dependent warming (EDW), the amplification of warming under climate change with elevation, is likely to accelerate changes in e.g. cryospheric and hydrological systems. Responsible for EDW is a mixture of processes including snow albedo feedback, cloud formations or the location of aerosols. The degree of incorporation of this processes varies across state of the art climate models. In a recent study we were preparing bias corrected model output of CMIP5 GCMs and CORDEX RCMs over the Himalayan region for the glacier modelling community. In a first attempt we used quantile mapping (QM) to generate this data. A beforehand model evaluation showed that more than two third of the 49 included climate models were able to reproduce positive trend differences between areas of higher and lower elevations in winter, clearly visible in all of our five observational datasets used. Regrettably, we noticed that height dependent trend signals provided by models were distorted, most of the time in the direction of less EDW, sometimes even reversing EDW signals present in the models before the bias correction. As a consequence, we refrained from using quantile mapping for our task, as EDW poses one important factor influencing the climate in high altitudes for the nearer and more distant future, and used a climate change signal preserving bias correction approach. Here we present our findings of the distortion of the EDW temperature change by QM and discuss the influence of QM on different statistical properties as well as their modifications.

Modeling responses of large-river fish populations to global climate change through downscaling and incorporation of predictive uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Wikle, Christopher K.; Anderson, Christopher J.; Franz, Kristie J.; Moran, Edward H.; Dey, Rima; Mader, Helmut; Kraml, Julia

2012-01-01

Climate change operates over a broad range of spatial and temporal scales. Understanding its effects on ecosystems requires multi-scale models. For understanding effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, climate predicted by coarse-resolution Global Climate Models must be downscaled to Regional Climate Models to watersheds to river hydrology to population response. An additional challenge is quantifying sources of uncertainty given the highly nonlinear nature of interactions between climate variables and community level processes. We present a modeling approach for understanding and accomodating uncertainty by applying multi-scale climate models and a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework to Midwest fish population dynamics and by linking models for system components together by formal rules of probability. The proposed hierarchical modeling approach will account for sources of uncertainty in forecasts of community or population response. The goal is to evaluate the potential distributional changes in an ecological system, given distributional changes implied by a series of linked climate and system models under various emissions/use scenarios. This understanding will aid evaluation of management options for coping with global climate change. In our initial analyses, we found that predicted pallid sturgeon population responses were dependent on the climate scenario considered.

Wood production response to climate change will depend critically on forest composition and structure.

PubMed

Coomes, David A; Flores, Olivier; Holdaway, Robert; Jucker, Tommaso; Lines, Emily R; Vanderwel, Mark C

2014-12-01

Established forests currently function as a major carbon sink, sequestering as woody biomass about 26% of global fossil fuel emissions. Whether forests continue to act as a global sink will depend on many factors, including the response of aboveground wood production (AWP; MgC ha(-1 ) yr(-1) ) to climate change. Here, we explore how AWP in New Zealand's natural forests is likely to change. We start by statistically modelling the present-day growth of 97 199 individual trees within 1070 permanently marked inventory plots as a function of tree size, competitive neighbourhood and climate. We then use these growth models to identify the factors that most influence present-day AWP and to predict responses to medium-term climate change under different assumptions. We find that if the composition and structure of New Zealand's forests were to remain unchanged over the next 30 years, then AWP would increase by 6-23%, primarily as a result of physiological responses to warmer temperatures (with no appreciable effect of changing rainfall). However, if warmth-requiring trees were able to migrate into currently cooler areas and if denser canopies were able to form, then a different AWP response is likely: forests growing in the cool mountain environments would show a 30% increase in AWP, while those in the lowland would hardly respond (on average, -3% when mean annual temperature exceeds 8.0 °C). We conclude that response of wood production to anthropogenic climate change is not only dependent on the physiological responses of individual trees, but is highly contingent on whether forests adjust in composition and structure. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.

2004-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (105-106 Myr ago). Examples include gullies [1], cold-based tropical glaciers [2], paleolakes [3], and youthful near-surface ice [4]. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haberle, R. M.

2004-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey spacecraft reveal evidence that Mars may have experienced significant climate change in the recent past (10(exp 5) - 10(exp 6) Myr ago). Examples include gullies, cold-based tropical glaciers, paleolakes, and youthful near-surface ice. Except for the gullies, the evidence for recent climate change requires ice and/or liquid water at low latitudes. An obvious question, therefore, is how is it possible for ice and/or liquid water to exist at low latitudes which is not possible in the present climate system? There are several mechanisms to consider. An episode of intense volcanic activity could alter the mean composition of the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate system. Impacts, depending on the size, composition, and velocity of the impactor are another way to dramatically alter the climate system. Polar wander and solar variability are also possibilities. However, the most promising way to change the climate is through changes in orbital properties. Mars, because of its proximity to Jupiter and lack of a large stabilizing moon, experiences much greater changes in its orbit properties than the Earth.

Media coverage of climate change in Russia: governmental bias and climate silence.

PubMed

Poberezhskaya, Marianna

2015-01-01

This paper explores which actors and factors influence media coverage of climate change in Russia. It does this by analysing the coverage of three events by five Russian national newspapers (Komsomol'skaya pravda, Rossiyskaya gazeta, Izvestiya, Kommersant and Sovetskaya Rossiya). The three events are the Kyoto Conference in 1997, the Copenhagen Conference in 2009 and the Russian heat-wave of 2010. This paper concludes that regardless of the ownership structure of the newspapers or their dependence on advertising, there is little difference in quantity and quality of overall coverage on climate change. With most newspapers relying on Russian officials as information sources, almost none criticise or question Russian climate policy. Furthermore, the article concludes that, in Russia, the omission of climate change issues from discussion in national newspapers becomes a greater problem than biased coverage, as the lack of commentary decidedly prevents these issues from entering the public debate. © The Author(s) 2014.

Reproductive responses of an apex predator to changing climatic conditions

Treesearch

Susan Rebecca Salafsky

2015-01-01

Apex predators are ideal subjects for evaluating the effects of changing climatic conditions on the productivity of forested landscapes, because the quality of their breeding habitat depends primarily on the availability of resources at lower trophic levels. Identifying the environmental factors that influence the reproductive output of apex predators can, therefore,...

Time effects of climate change mitigation strategies for second generation biofuels and co-products with temporary carbon storage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Second generation biofuels that are under development to address the climate change impacts of transportation offer different means of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and storing or delaying carbon emissions relative to petroleum-based fuels depending upon the strategy used to synthesize the biofu...

Berry composition and climate: responses and empirical models.

PubMed

Barnuud, Nyamdorj N; Zerihun, Ayalsew; Gibberd, Mark; Bates, Bryson

2014-08-01

Climate is a strong modulator of berry composition. Accordingly, the projected change in climate is expected to impact on the composition of berries and of the resultant wines. However, the direction and extent of climate change impact on fruit composition of winegrape cultivars are not fully known. This study utilised a climate gradient along a 700 km transect, covering all wine regions of Western Australia, to explore and empirically describe influences of climate on anthocyanins, pH and titratable acidity (TA) levels in two or three cultivars of Vitis vinifera (Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay and Shiraz). The results showed that, at a common maturity of 22° Brix total soluble solids, berries from the warmer regions had low levels of anthocyanins and TA as well as high pH compared to berries from the cooler regions. Most of these regional variations in berry composition reflected the prevailing climatic conditions of the regions. Thus, depending on cultivar, 82-87 % of TA, 83 % of anthocyanins and about half of the pH variations across the gradient were explained by climate-variable-based empirical models. Some of the variables that were relevant in describing the variations in berry attributes included: diurnal ranges and ripening period temperature (TA), vapour pressure deficit in October and growing degree days (pH), and ripening period temperatures (anthocyanins). Further, the rates of change in these berry attributes in response to climate variables were cultivar dependent. Based on the observed patterns along the climate gradient, it is concluded that: (1) in a warming climate, all other things being equal, berry anthocyanins and TA levels will decline whereas pH levels will rise; and (2) despite variations in non-climatic factors (e.g. soil type and management) along the sampling transect, variations in TA and anthocyanins were satisfactorily described using climate-variable-based empirical models, indicating the overriding impact of climate on berry composition. The models presented here are useful tools for assessing likely changes in berry TA and anthocyanins in response to changing climate for the wine regions and cultivars covered in this study.

Berry composition and climate: responses and empirical models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnuud, Nyamdorj N.; Zerihun, Ayalsew; Gibberd, Mark; Bates, Bryson

2014-08-01

Climate is a strong modulator of berry composition. Accordingly, the projected change in climate is expected to impact on the composition of berries and of the resultant wines. However, the direction and extent of climate change impact on fruit composition of winegrape cultivars are not fully known. This study utilised a climate gradient along a 700 km transect, covering all wine regions of Western Australia, to explore and empirically describe influences of climate on anthocyanins, pH and titratable acidity (TA) levels in two or three cultivars of Vitis vinifera (Cabernet Sauvignon, Chardonnay and Shiraz). The results showed that, at a common maturity of 22° Brix total soluble solids, berries from the warmer regions had low levels of anthocyanins and TA as well as high pH compared to berries from the cooler regions. Most of these regional variations in berry composition reflected the prevailing climatic conditions of the regions. Thus, depending on cultivar, 82-87 % of TA, 83 % of anthocyanins and about half of the pH variations across the gradient were explained by climate-variable-based empirical models. Some of the variables that were relevant in describing the variations in berry attributes included: diurnal ranges and ripening period temperature (TA), vapour pressure deficit in October and growing degree days (pH), and ripening period temperatures (anthocyanins). Further, the rates of change in these berry attributes in response to climate variables were cultivar dependent. Based on the observed patterns along the climate gradient, it is concluded that: (1) in a warming climate, all other things being equal, berry anthocyanins and TA levels will decline whereas pH levels will rise; and (2) despite variations in non-climatic factors (e.g. soil type and management) along the sampling transect, variations in TA and anthocyanins were satisfactorily described using climate-variable-based empirical models, indicating the overriding impact of climate on berry composition. The models presented here are useful tools for assessing likely changes in berry TA and anthocyanins in response to changing climate for the wine regions and cultivars covered in this study.

Linking the Mediterranean regional and the global climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, Piero; Scarascia, Luca

2017-04-01

This contribution analyzes 22 CMIP5 global climate projections to show how is the regional climate change in the Mediterranean related to the global climate change. The aim is to use these recent results to revisit evidences suggesting that the Mediterranean region is a climate change hot spot. Results show that future increase of temperature in the Mediterranean region has a strong seasonal connotation, with summer warming at a pace 40% larger than the global mean. This future trend is consistent with the global reduction of the meridional temperature gradient that is produced by climate change. However spatial distribution of changes shows a strong a sub-regional modulation depending of the land-sea contrast, the role of soil moisture feedback and changes of large scale atmospheric circulation leading to increased subsidence conditions. Projections show that precipitation decrease will affect most of the region, but with a strong difference between southern and northern areas, where CMIP5 projections suggest a 7% and 3% decrease of annual precipitation for each degree of global warming, respectively. For both Mediterranean temperature and precipitation, the dependence is substantially linear in the range up to 40C of global warming. Interannual variability and intermodel differences are a substantial source of uncertainty for precipitation (while there is a robust consensus for temperature changes). Therefore, future precipitation changes are still a controversial issue, in terms of intensity and precise location of the transition belt that separates the decrease of precipitation over the MR from areas in central and northern Europe, where precipitation is expected to increase. On this respect, though the overall drying trend appears consolidated in the scientific literature, its precise evaluation remains to some extent controversial.

Modeling the influence of climate change on watershed systems: Adaptation through targeted practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudula, John; Randhir, Timothy O.

2016-10-01

Climate change may influence hydrologic processes of watersheds (IPCC, 2013) and increased runoff may cause flooding, eroded stream banks, widening of stream channels, increased pollutant loading, and consequently impairment of aquatic life. The goal of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrologic processes and to evaluate scale and effectiveness of management practices for adaptation. We simulate baseline watershed conditions using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) simulation model to examine the possible effects of changing climate on watershed processes. We also simulate the effects of adaptation and mitigation through specific best management strategies for various climatic scenarios. With continuing low-flow conditions and vulnerability to climate change, the Ipswich watershed is the focus of this study. We quantify fluxes in runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, sediment load, and nutrient concentrations under baseline and climate change scenarios (near and far future). We model adaptation options for mitigating climate effects on watershed processes using bioretention/raingarden Best Management Practices (BMPs). It was observed that climate change has a significant impact on watershed runoff and carefully designed and maintained BMPs at subwatershed scale can be effective in mitigating some of the problems related to stormwater runoff. Policy options include implementation of BMPs through education and incentives for scale-dependent and site specific bioretention units/raingardens to increase the resilience of the watershed system to current and future climate change.

Land use compounds habitat losses under projected climate change in a threatened California ecosystem.

PubMed

Riordan, Erin Coulter; Rundel, Philip W

2014-01-01

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st) century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning.

Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kniveton, Dominic R.; Smith, Christopher D.; Black, Richard

2012-06-01

Fears of the movement of large numbers of people as a result of changes in the environment were first voiced in the 1980s (ref. ). Nearly thirty years later the numbers likely to migrate as a result of the impacts of climate change are still, at best, guesswork. Owing to the high prevalence of rainfed agriculture, many livelihoods in sub-Saharan African drylands are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. One commonly adopted response strategy used by populations to deal with the resulting livelihood stress is migration. Here, we use an agent-based model developed around the theory of planned behaviour to explore how climate and demographic change, defined by the ENSEMBLES project and the United Nations Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs, combine to influence migration within and from Burkina Faso. The emergent migration patterns modelled support framing the nexus of climate change and migration as a complex adaptive system. Using this conceptual framework, we show that the extent of climate-change-related migration is likely to be highly nonlinear and the extent of this nonlinearity is dependent on population growth; therefore supporting migration policy interventions based on both demographic and climate change adaptation.

The ecology of Anopheles mosquitoes under climate change: case studies from the effects of deforestation in East African highlands.

PubMed

Afrane, Yaw A; Githeko, Andrew K; Yan, Guiyun

2012-02-01

Climate change is expected to lead to latitudinal and altitudinal temperature increases. High-elevation regions such as the highlands of Africa and those that have temperate climate are most likely to be affected. The highlands of Africa generally exhibit low ambient temperatures. This restricts the distribution of Anopheles mosquitoes, the vectors of malaria, filariasis, and O'nyong'nyong fever. The development and survival of larval and adult mosquitoes are temperature dependent, as are mosquito biting frequency and pathogen development rate. Given that various Anopheles species are adapted to different climatic conditions, changes in climate could lead to changes in species composition in an area that may change the dynamics of mosquito-borne disease transmission. It is important to consider the effect of climate change on rainfall, which is critical to the formation and persistence of mosquito breeding sites. In addition, environmental changes such as deforestation could increase local temperatures in the highlands; this could enhance the vectorial capacity of the Anopheles. These experimental data will be invaluable in facilitating the understanding of the impact of climate change on Anopheles. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.

Microclimate and ecological threshold responses in a warming and wetting experiment following whole-tree harvest

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Ecosystem climate manipulation experiments (ECMEs) are a key tool for predicting the effects of climate on ecosystems. However, the strength of inferences drawn from these experiments depends on whether the manipulated conditions mimic future climate changes. While ECMEs have examined mean tempera...

Preparing for Climate Change: A Perspective from Local Public Health Officers in California

PubMed Central

Bedsworth, Louise

2009-01-01

Background The most recent scientific findings show that even with significant emission reductions, some amount of climate change is likely inevitable. The magnitude of the climate changes will depend on future emissions and climate sensitivity. These changes will have local impacts, and a significant share of coping with these changes will fall on local governmental agencies. Public health is no exception, because local public health agencies are crucial providers of disease prevention, health care, and emergency preparedness services. Methods This article presents the results of a survey of California’s local pubic health officers conducted between August and October 2007. The survey gauged health officers’ concerns about the public health impacts of climate change, programs in place that could help to mitigate these health effects, and information and resource needs for better coping with a changing climate. Results The results of this survey show that most public health officers feel that climate change poses a serious threat to public health but that they do not feel well equipped in terms of either resources or information to cope with that threat. Nonetheless, public health agencies currently implement a number of programs that will help these agencies handle some of the challenges posed by a changing climate. Conclusions Overall, the results suggest that local public health agencies in California are likely in a better position than they perceive to address the threats associated with climate change but that there is a larger role for them to play in climate policy. PMID:19440502

Preparing for climate change: a perspective from local public health officers in California.

PubMed

Bedsworth, Louise

2009-04-01

The most recent scientific findings show that even with significant emission reductions, some amount of climate change is likely inevitable. The magnitude of the climate changes will depend on future emissions and climate sensitivity. These changes will have local impacts, and a significant share of coping with these changes will fall on local governmental agencies. Public health is no exception, because local public health agencies are crucial providers of disease prevention, health care, and emergency preparedness services. This article presents the results of a survey of California's local pubic health officers conducted between August and October 2007. The survey gauged health officers' concerns about the public health impacts of climate change, programs in place that could help to mitigate these health effects, and information and resource needs for better coping with a changing climate. The results of this survey show that most public health officers feel that climate change poses a serious threat to public health but that they do not feel well equipped in terms of either resources or information to cope with that threat. Nonetheless, public health agencies currently implement a number of programs that will help these agencies handle some of the challenges posed by a changing climate. Overall, the results suggest that local public health agencies in California are likely in a better position than they perceive to address the threats associated with climate change but that there is a larger role for them to play in climate policy.

Predicting responses to climate change requires all life-history stages.

PubMed

Zeigler, Sara

2013-01-01

In Focus: Radchuk, V., Turlure, C. & Schtickzelle, N. (2013) Each life stage matters: the importance of assessing response to climate change over the complete life cycle in butterflies. Journal of Animal Ecology, 82, 275-285. Population-level responses to climate change depend on many factors, including unexpected interactions among life history attributes; however, few studies examine climate change impacts over complete life cycles of focal species. Radchuk, Turlure & Schtickzelle () used experimental and modelling approaches to predict population dynamics for the bog fritillary butterfly under warming scenarios. Although they found that warming improved fertility and survival of all stages with one exception, populations were predicted to decline because overwintering larvae, whose survival declined with warming, were disproportionately important contributors to population growth. This underscores the importance of considering all life history stages in analyses of climate change's effects on population dynamics. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

The Costs of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jason

2018-03-01

This research paper talks about the economic costs of climate change, as well as the costs involved in responding to climate change with alternative fuels. This paper seeks to show that climate change, although seemingly costly in the short run, will both save future generations trillions of dollars and serve as a good economic opportunity. Scientists have long argued that the fate of humanity depends on a shift towards renewable energy. However, this paper will make clear that there is also an economic struggle. By embracing alternative fuels, we will not only lessen the danger and the frequency of these natural disasters but also strengthen the world’s financial state. Although a common argument against responding to climate change is that it is too expensive to make the switch, this research shows that in the future, it will save millions of lives and trillions of dollars. The only question left for policymakers is whether they will grasp this energy source shift.

Disease and thermal acclimation in a more variable and unpredictable climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raffel, Thomas R.; Romansic, John M.; Halstead, Neal T.; McMahon, Taegan A.; Venesky, Matthew D.; Rohr, Jason R.

2013-02-01

Global climate change is shifting the distribution of infectious diseases of humans and wildlife with potential adverse consequences for disease control. As well as increasing mean temperatures, climate change is expected to increase climate variability, making climate less predictable. However, few empirical or theoretical studies have considered the effects of climate variability or predictability on disease, despite it being likely that hosts and parasites will have differential responses to climatic shifts. Here we present a theoretical framework for how temperature variation and its predictability influence disease risk by affecting host and parasite acclimation responses. Laboratory experiments conducted in 80 independent incubators, and field data on disease-associated frog declines in Latin America, support the framework and provide evidence that unpredictable temperature fluctuations, on both monthly and diurnal timescales, decrease frog resistance to the pathogenic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Furthermore, the pattern of temperature-dependent growth of the fungus on frogs was opposite to the pattern of growth in culture, emphasizing the importance of accounting for the host-parasite interaction when predicting climate-dependent disease dynamics. If similar acclimation responses influence other host-parasite systems, as seems likely, then present models, which generally ignore small-scale temporal variability in climate, might provide poor predictions for climate effects on disease.

Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change.

PubMed

Olesen, J E; Børgesen, C D; Elsgaard, L; Palosuo, T; Rötter, R P; Skjelvåg, A O; Peltonen-Sainio, P; Börjesson, T; Trnka, M; Ewert, F; Siebert, S; Brisson, N; Eitzinger, J; van Asselt, E D; Oberforster, M; van der Fels-Klerx, H J

2012-01-01

The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices. This study aimed to assess changes in timing of major phenological stages of cereal crops in Northern and Central Europe under climate change. Records on dates of sowing, flowering, and maturity of wheat, oats and maize were collected from field experiments conducted during the period 1985-2009. Data for spring wheat and spring oats covered latitudes from 46 to 64°N, winter wheat from 46 to 61°N, and maize from 47 to 58°N. The number of observations (site-year-variety combinations) varied with phenological phase, but exceeded 2190, 227, 2076 and 1506 for winter wheat, spring wheat, spring oats and maize, respectively. The data were used to fit simple crop development models, assuming that the duration of the period until flowering depends on temperature and day length for wheat and oats, and on temperature for maize, and that the duration of the period from flowering to maturity in all species depends on temperature only. Species-specific base temperatures were used. Sowing date of spring cereals was estimated using a threshold temperature for the mean air temperature during 10 days prior to sowing. The mean estimated temperature thresholds for sowing were 6.1, 7.1 and 10.1°C for oats, wheat and maize, respectively. For spring oats and wheat the temperature threshold increased with latitude. The effective temperature sums required for both flowering and maturity increased with increasing mean annual temperature of the location, indicating that varieties are well adapted to given conditions. The responses of wheat and oats were largest for the period from flowering to maturity. Changes in timing of cereal phenology by 2040 were assessed for two climate model projections according to the observed dependencies on temperature and day length. The results showed advancements of sowing date of spring cereals by 1-3 weeks depending on climate model and region within Europe. The changes were largest in Northern Europe. Timing of flowering and maturity were projected to advance by 1-3 weeks. The changes were largest for grain maize and smallest for winter wheat, and they were generally largest in the western and northern part of the domain. There were considerable differences in predicted timing of sowing, flowering and maturity between the two climate model projections applied.

Evolution of plasticity and adaptive responses to climate change along climate gradients.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Buckley, Lauren B

2017-08-16

The relative contributions of phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution to the responses of species to recent and future climate change are poorly understood. We combine recent (1960-2010) climate and phenotypic data with microclimate, heat balance, demographic and evolutionary models to address this issue for a montane butterfly, Colias eriphyle , along an elevational gradient. Our focal phenotype, wing solar absorptivity, responds plastically to developmental (pupal) temperatures and plays a central role in thermoregulatory adaptation in adults. Here, we show that both the phenotypic and adaptive consequences of plasticity vary with elevation. Seasonal changes in weather generate seasonal variation in phenotypic selection on mean and plasticity of absorptivity, especially at lower elevations. In response to climate change in the past 60 years, our models predict evolutionary declines in mean absorptivity (but little change in plasticity) at high elevations, and evolutionary increases in plasticity (but little change in mean) at low elevation. The importance of plasticity depends on the magnitude of seasonal variation in climate relative to interannual variation. Our results suggest that selection and evolution of both trait means and plasticity can contribute to adaptive response to climate change in this system. They also illustrate how plasticity can facilitate rather than retard adaptive evolutionary responses to directional climate change in seasonal environments. © 2017 The Author(s).

Assessment of climate change impacts on climate variables using probabilistic ensemble modeling and trend analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Safavi, Hamid R.; Sajjadi, Sayed Mahdi; Raghibi, Vahid

2017-10-01

Water resources in snow-dependent regions have undergone significant changes due to climate change. Snow measurements in these regions have revealed alarming declines in snowfall over the past few years. The Zayandeh-Rud River in central Iran chiefly depends on winter falls as snow for supplying water from wet regions in high Zagrous Mountains to the downstream, (semi-)arid, low-lying lands. In this study, the historical records (baseline: 1971-2000) of climate variables (temperature and precipitation) in the wet region were chosen to construct a probabilistic ensemble model using 15 GCMs in order to forecast future trends and changes while the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was utilized to project climate variables under two A2 and B1 scenarios to a future period (2015-2044). Since future snow water equivalent (SWE) forecasts by GCMs were not available for the study area, an artificial neural network (ANN) was implemented to build a relationship between climate variables and snow water equivalent for the baseline period to estimate future snowfall amounts. As a last step, homogeneity and trend tests were performed to evaluate the robustness of the data series and changes were examined to detect past and future variations. Results indicate different characteristics of the climate variables at upstream stations. A shift is observed in the type of precipitation from snow to rain as well as in its quantities across the subregions. The key role in these shifts and the subsequent side effects such as water losses is played by temperature.

Quantifying Tropical Glacier Mass Balance Sensitivity to Climate Change Through Regional-Scale Modeling and The Randolph Glacier Inventory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, A.

2017-12-01

Quantifying mass balance sensitivity to climate change is essential for forecasting glacier evolution and deciphering climate signals embedded in archives of past glacier changes. Ideally, these quantifications result from decades of field measurement, remote sensing, and a hierarchy modeling approach, but in data-sparse regions, such as the Himalayas and tropical Andes, regional-scale modeling rooted in first principles provides a first-order picture. Previous regional-scaling modeling studies have applied a surface energy and mass balance approach in order to quantify equilibrium line altitude sensitivity to climate change. In this study, an expanded regional-scale surface energy and mass balance model is implemented to quantify glacier-wide mass balance sensitivity to climate change for tropical Andean glaciers. Data from the Randolph Glacier Inventory are incorporated, and additional physical processes are included, such as a dynamic albedo and cloud-dependent atmospheric emissivity. The model output agrees well with the limited mass balance records for tropical Andean glaciers. The dominant climate variables driving interannual mass balance variability differ depending on the climate setting. For wet tropical glaciers (annual precipitation >0.75 m y-1), temperature is the dominant climate variable. Different hypotheses for the processes linking wet tropical glacier mass balance variability to temperature are evaluated. The results support the hypothesis that glacier-wide mass balance on wet tropical glaciers is largely dominated by processes at the lowest elevation where temperature plays a leading role in energy exchanges. This research also highlights the transient nature of wet tropical glaciers - the vast majority of tropical glaciers and a vital regional water resource - in an anthropogenic warming world.

Declining body size: a third universal response to warming?

PubMed

Gardner, Janet L; Peters, Anne; Kearney, Michael R; Joseph, Leo; Heinsohn, Robert

2011-06-01

A recently documented correlate of anthropogenic climate change involves reductions in body size, the nature and scale of the pattern leading to suggestions of a third universal response to climate warming. Because body size affects thermoregulation and energetics, changing body size has implications for resilience in the face of climate change. A review of recent studies shows heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of size responses, exposing a need for large-scale phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses of temporal size change. Integrative analyses of museum data combined with new theoretical models of size-dependent thermoregulatory and metabolic responses will increase both understanding of the underlying mechanisms and physiological consequences of size shifts and, therefore, the ability to predict the sensitivities of species to climate change. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental and observational studies find contrasting responses of soil nutrients to climate change.

PubMed

Yuan, Z Y; Jiao, F; Shi, X R; Sardans, Jordi; Maestre, Fernando T; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Reich, Peter B; Peñuelas, Josep

2017-06-01

Manipulative experiments and observations along environmental gradients, the two most common approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling, are generally assumed to produce similar results, but this assumption has rarely been tested. We did so by conducting a meta-analysis and found that soil nutrients responded differentially to drivers of climate change depending on the approach considered. Soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with water addition in manipulative experiments but increased with annual precipitation along environmental gradients. Different patterns were also observed between warming experiments and temperature gradients. Our findings provide evidence of inconsistent results and suggest that manipulative experiments may be better predictors of the causal impacts of short-term (months to years) climate change on soil nutrients but environmental gradients may provide better information for long-term correlations (centuries to millennia) between these nutrients and climatic features. Ecosystem models should consequently incorporate both experimental and observational data to properly assess the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling.

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McDonald Madden, Eve; Runge, Michael C.; Possingham, Hugh P.; Martin, Tara G.

2011-01-01

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12, species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change13,14. To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management15,16 is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

Mapping the Drivers of Climate Change Vulnerability for Australia’s Threatened Species

PubMed Central

Lee, Jasmine R.; Maggini, Ramona; Taylor, Martin F. J.; Fuller, Richard A.

2015-01-01

Effective conservation management for climate adaptation rests on understanding the factors driving species’ vulnerability in a spatially explicit manner so as to direct on-ground action. However, there have been only few attempts to map the spatial distribution of the factors driving vulnerability to climate change. Here we conduct a species-level assessment of climate change vulnerability for a sample of Australia’s threatened species and map the distribution of species affected by each factor driving climate change vulnerability across the continent. Almost half of the threatened species assessed were considered vulnerable to the impacts of climate change: amphibians being the most vulnerable group, followed by plants, reptiles, mammals and birds. Species with more restricted distributions were more likely to show high climate change vulnerability than widespread species. The main factors driving climate change vulnerability were low genetic variation, dependence on a particular disturbance regime and reliance on a particular moisture regime or habitat. The geographic distribution of the species impacted by each driver varies markedly across the continent, for example species impacted by low genetic variation are prevalent across the human-dominated south-east of the country, while reliance on particular moisture regimes is prevalent across northern Australia. Our results show that actions to address climate adaptation will need to be spatially appropriate, and that in some regions a complex suite of factors driving climate change vulnerability will need to be addressed. Taxonomic and geographic variation in the factors driving climate change vulnerability highlights an urgent need for a spatial prioritisation of climate adaptation actions for threatened species. PMID:26017785

Climate change and animal health in Africa.

PubMed

Van den Bossche, P; Coetzer, J A W

2008-08-01

Climate change is expected to have direct and indirect impacts on African livestock. Direct impacts include increased ambient temperature, floods and droughts. Indirect impacts are the result of reduced availability of water and forage and changes in the environment that promote the spread of contagious diseases through increased contact between animals, or increased survival or availability of the agent or its intermediate host. The distribution and prevalence of vector-borne diseases may be the most significant effect of climate change. The potential vulnerability of the livestock industry will depend on its ability to adapt to such changes. Enhancing this adaptive capacity presents a practical way of coping with climate change. Adaptive capacity could be increased by enabling the African livestock owner to cope better with animal health problems through appropriate policy measures and institutional support. Developing an effective and sustainable animal health service, associated surveillance and emergency preparedness systems and sustainable disease control and prevention programmes is perhaps the most important strategy for dealing with climate change in many African countries.

Impacts on Water Management and Crop Production of Regional Cropping System Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, H.; Sun, L.; Tian, Z.; Liang, Z.; Fischer, G.

2014-12-01

China is one of the most populous and fast developing countries, also faces a great pressure on grain production and food security. Multi-cropping system is widely applied in China to fully utilize agro-climatic resources and increase land productivity. As the heat resource keep improving under climate warming, multi-cropping system will also shifting northward, and benefit crop production. But water shortage in North China Plain will constrain the adoption of new multi-cropping system. Effectiveness of multi-cropping system adaptation to climate change will greatly depend on future hydrological change and agriculture water management. So it is necessary to quantitatively express the water demand of different multi-cropping systems under climate change. In this paper, we proposed an integrated climate-cropping system-crops adaptation framework, and specifically focused on: 1) precipitation and hydrological change under future climate change in China; 2) the best multi-cropping system and correspondent crop rotation sequence, and water demand under future agro-climatic resources; 3) attainable crop production with water constraint; and 4) future water management. In order to obtain climate projection and precipitation distribution, global climate change scenario from HADCAM3 is downscaled with regional climate model (PRECIS), historical climate data (1960-1990) was interpolated from more than 700 meteorological observation stations. The regional Agro-ecological Zone (AEZ) model is applied to simulate the best multi-cropping system and crop rotation sequence under projected climate change scenario. Finally, we use the site process-based DSSAT model to estimate attainable crop production and the water deficiency. Our findings indicate that annual land productivity may increase and China can gain benefit from climate change if multi-cropping system would be adopted. This study provides a macro-scale view of agriculture adaptation, and gives suggestions to national agriculture adaptation strategy decisions.

Understanding the Effectiveness of Carbon Dioxide Removal to Reduce the Impacts of Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, V.; Tett, S. F.; Brander, M.

2017-12-01

The current Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement suggest exceeding the emissions budgets corresponding to the below 2°C and 1.5°C temperature targets. To address this the future application of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is proposed to recapture excess emissions at a later time, so keeping the total net emissions within budget. This assumes that the climate change impact of CO2 emitted now can be fully compensated by a matched CO2 removal in the future. However, the impacts from this pathway of emissions budget overshoot and subsequent recapture may differ from those resulting from a pathway where emissions are held within budget with no temporary overshoot. These pathway dependent impacts could give rise to different climatic and societal futures despite the total net emissions being the same. Using a low resolution fully coupled Earth System Model with an interactive carbon cycle, we present an investigation into the pathway dependence of climate change impacts and how these relate to the scale and duration of the emissions budget overshoot and subsequent recapture. From this we discuss the effectiveness of CDR in avoiding climate change impacts relative to more immediate emissions reductions. We consider how this relative effectiveness might be reflected in GHG accounting methods and national GHG accounts, and explore the implications for Article 2 of the Paris Agreement, where holding temperatures to the targets is recognised to "significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change".

Climate-smart agriculture for food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lipper, Leslie; Thornton, Philip; Campbell, Bruce M.; Baedeker, Tobias; Braimoh, Ademola; Bwalya, Martin; Caron, Patrick; Cattaneo, Andrea; Garrity, Dennis; Henry, Kevin; Hottle, Ryan; Jackson, Louise; Jarvis, Andrew; Kossam, Fred; Mann, Wendy; McCarthy, Nancy; Meybeck, Alexandre; Neufeldt, Henry; Remington, Tom; Sen, Pham Thi; Sessa, Reuben; Shula, Reynolds; Tibu, Austin; Torquebiau, Emmanuel F.

2014-12-01

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under the new realities of climate change. Widespread changes in rainfall and temperature patterns threaten agricultural production and increase the vulnerability of people dependent on agriculture for their livelihoods, which includes most of the world's poor. Climate change disrupts food markets, posing population-wide risks to food supply. Threats can be reduced by increasing the adaptive capacity of farmers as well as increasing resilience and resource use efficiency in agricultural production systems. CSA promotes coordinated actions by farmers, researchers, private sector, civil society and policymakers towards climate-resilient pathways through four main action areas: (1) building evidence; (2) increasing local institutional effectiveness; (3) fostering coherence between climate and agricultural policies; and (4) linking climate and agricultural financing. CSA differs from 'business-as-usual' approaches by emphasizing the capacity to implement flexible, context-specific solutions, supported by innovative policy and financing actions.

The role of internal climate variability for interpreting climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maraun, Douglas

2013-04-01

When communicating information on climate change, the use of multi-model ensembles has been advocated to sample uncertainties over a range as wide as possible. To meet the demand for easily accessible results, the ensemble is often summarised by its multi-model mean signal. In rare cases, additional uncertainty measures are given to avoid loosing all information on the ensemble spread, e.g., the highest and lowest projected values. Such approaches, however, disregard the fundamentally different nature of the different types of uncertainties and might cause wrong interpretations and subsequently wrong decisions for adaptation. Whereas scenario and climate model uncertainties are of epistemic nature, i.e., caused by an in principle reducible lack of knowledge, uncertainties due to internal climate variability are aleatory, i.e., inherently stochastic and irreducible. As wisely stated in the proverb "climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", a specific region will experience one stochastic realisation of the climate system, but never exactly the expected climate change signal as given by a multi model mean. Depending on the meteorological variable, region and lead time, the signal might be strong or weak compared to the stochastic component. In cases of a low signal-to-noise ratio, even if the climate change signal is a well defined trend, no trends or even opposite trends might be experienced. Here I propose to use the time of emergence (TOE) to quantify and communicate when climate change trends will exceed the internal variability. The TOE provides a useful measure for end users to assess the time horizon for implementing adaptation measures. Furthermore, internal variability is scale dependent - the more local the scale, the stronger the influence of internal climate variability. Thus investigating the TOE as a function of spatial scale could help to assess the required spatial scale for implementing adaptation measures. I exemplify this proposal with a recently published study on the TOE for mean and heavy precipitation trends in Europe. In some regions trends emerge only late in the 21st century or even later, suggesting that in these regions adaptation to internal variability rather than to climate change is required. Yet in other regions the climate change signal is strong, urging for timely adaptation. Douglas Maraun, When at what scale will trends in European mean and heavy precipitation emerge? Env. Res. Lett., in press, 2013.

Forest climate change Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment in Himalayas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chitale, V. S.; Shrestha, H. L.; Agarwal, N. K.; Choudhurya, D.; Gilani, H.; Dhonju, H. K.; Murthy, M. S. R.

2014-11-01

Forests offer an important basis for creating and safeguarding more climate-resilient communities over Hindu Kush Himalayan region. The forest ecosystem vulnerability assessment to climate change and developing knowledge base to identify and support relevant adaptation strategies is realized as an urgent need. The multi scale adaptation strategies portray increasing complexity with the increasing levels in terms of data requirements, vulnerability understanding and decision making to choose a particular adaptation strategy. We present here how such complexities could be addressed and adaptation decisions could be either directly supported by open source remote sensing based forestry products or geospatial analysis and modelled products. The forest vulnerability assessment under climate change scenario coupled with increasing forest social dependence was studied using IPCC Landscape scale Vulnerability framework in Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in Nepal. Around twenty layers of geospatial information on climate, forest biophysical and forest social dependence data was used to assess forest vulnerability and associated adaptation needs using self-learning decision tree based approaches. The increase in forest fires, evapotranspiration and reduction in productivity over changing climate scenario was observed. The adaptation measures on enhancing productivity, improving resilience, reducing or avoiding pressure with spatial specificity are identified to support suitable decision making. The study provides spatial analytical framework to evaluate multitude of parameters to understand vulnerabilities and assess scope for alternative adaptation strategies with spatial explicitness.

The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.

2015-07-01

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario,more » there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.« less

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century.

PubMed

Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

2010-09-27

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO(2) rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century

PubMed Central

Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

2010-01-01

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO2 rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified. PMID:20713397

A new test statistic for climate models that includes field and spatial dependencies using Gaussian Markov random fields

DOE PAGES

Nosedal-Sanchez, Alvaro; Jackson, Charles S.; Huerta, Gabriel

2016-07-20

A new test statistic for climate model evaluation has been developed that potentially mitigates some of the limitations that exist for observing and representing field and space dependencies of climate phenomena. Traditionally such dependencies have been ignored when climate models have been evaluated against observational data, which makes it difficult to assess whether any given model is simulating observed climate for the right reasons. The new statistic uses Gaussian Markov random fields for estimating field and space dependencies within a first-order grid point neighborhood structure. We illustrate the ability of Gaussian Markov random fields to represent empirical estimates of fieldmore » and space covariances using "witch hat" graphs. We further use the new statistic to evaluate the tropical response of a climate model (CAM3.1) to changes in two parameters important to its representation of cloud and precipitation physics. Overall, the inclusion of dependency information did not alter significantly the recognition of those regions of parameter space that best approximated observations. However, there were some qualitative differences in the shape of the response surface that suggest how such a measure could affect estimates of model uncertainty.« less

A new test statistic for climate models that includes field and spatial dependencies using Gaussian Markov random fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nosedal-Sanchez, Alvaro; Jackson, Charles S.; Huerta, Gabriel

A new test statistic for climate model evaluation has been developed that potentially mitigates some of the limitations that exist for observing and representing field and space dependencies of climate phenomena. Traditionally such dependencies have been ignored when climate models have been evaluated against observational data, which makes it difficult to assess whether any given model is simulating observed climate for the right reasons. The new statistic uses Gaussian Markov random fields for estimating field and space dependencies within a first-order grid point neighborhood structure. We illustrate the ability of Gaussian Markov random fields to represent empirical estimates of fieldmore » and space covariances using "witch hat" graphs. We further use the new statistic to evaluate the tropical response of a climate model (CAM3.1) to changes in two parameters important to its representation of cloud and precipitation physics. Overall, the inclusion of dependency information did not alter significantly the recognition of those regions of parameter space that best approximated observations. However, there were some qualitative differences in the shape of the response surface that suggest how such a measure could affect estimates of model uncertainty.« less

Permafrost carbon-climate feedbacks accelerate global warming

PubMed Central

Koven, Charles D.; Ringeval, Bruno; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Ciais, Philippe; Cadule, Patricia; Khvorostyanov, Dmitry; Krinner, Gerhard; Tarnocai, Charles

2011-01-01

Permafrost soils contain enormous amounts of organic carbon, which could act as a positive feedback to global climate change due to enhanced respiration rates with warming. We have used a terrestrial ecosystem model that includes permafrost carbon dynamics, inhibition of respiration in frozen soil layers, vertical mixing of soil carbon from surface to permafrost layers, and CH4 emissions from flooded areas, and which better matches new circumpolar inventories of soil carbon stocks, to explore the potential for carbon-climate feedbacks at high latitudes. Contrary to model results for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), when permafrost processes are included, terrestrial ecosystems north of 60°N could shift from being a sink to a source of CO2 by the end of the 21st century when forced by a Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 climate change scenario. Between 1860 and 2100, the model response to combined CO2 fertilization and climate change changes from a sink of 68 Pg to a 27 + -7 Pg sink to 4 + -18 Pg source, depending on the processes and parameter values used. The integrated change in carbon due to climate change shifts from near zero, which is within the range of previous model estimates, to a climate-induced loss of carbon by ecosystems in the range of 25 + -3 to 85 + -16 Pg C, depending on processes included in the model, with a best estimate of a 62 + -7 Pg C loss. Methane emissions from high-latitude regions are calculated to increase from 34 Tg CH4/y to 41–70 Tg CH4/y, with increases due to CO2 fertilization, permafrost thaw, and warming-induced increased CH4 flux densities partially offset by a reduction in wetland extent. PMID:21852573

State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections.

PubMed

Caballero, Rodrigo; Huber, Matthew

2013-08-27

Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow "Earth system" feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or "Charney" climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature.

Evaluating models of climate and forest vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, James S.

1992-01-01

Understanding how the biosphere may respond to increasing trace gas concentrations in the atmosphere requires models that contain vegetation responses to regional climate. Most of the processes ecologists study in forests, including trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and disturbance regimes, and vital components of the world economy, such as forest products and agriculture, will be influenced in potentially unexpected ways by changing climate. These vegetation changes affect climate in the following ways: changing C, N, and S pools; trace gases; albedo; and water balance. The complexity of the indirect interactions among variables that depend on climate, together with the range of different space/time scales that best describe these processes, make the problems of modeling and prediction enormously difficult. These problems of predicting vegetation response to climate warming and potential ways of testing model predictions are the subjects of this chapter.

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective.

PubMed

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J; Abel, Guy J

2017-05-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate-migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability.

Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dufresne, J.-L.; Foujols, M.-A.; Denvil, S.; Caubel, A.; Marti, O.; Aumont, O.; Balkanski, Y.; Bekki, S.; Bellenger, H.; Benshila, R.; Bony, S.; Bopp, L.; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Cadule, P.; Cheruy, F.; Codron, F.; Cozic, A.; Cugnet, D.; de Noblet, N.; Duvel, J.-P.; Ethé, C.; Fairhead, L.; Fichefet, T.; Flavoni, S.; Friedlingstein, P.; Grandpeix, J.-Y.; Guez, L.; Guilyardi, E.; Hauglustaine, D.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Ghattas, J.; Joussaume, S.; Kageyama, M.; Krinner, G.; Labetoulle, S.; Lahellec, A.; Lefebvre, M.-P.; Lefevre, F.; Levy, C.; Li, Z. X.; Lloyd, J.; Lott, F.; Madec, G.; Mancip, M.; Marchand, M.; Masson, S.; Meurdesoif, Y.; Mignot, J.; Musat, I.; Parouty, S.; Polcher, J.; Rio, C.; Schulz, M.; Swingedouw, D.; Szopa, S.; Talandier, C.; Terray, P.; Viovy, N.; Vuichard, N.

2013-05-01

We present the global general circulation model IPSL-CM5 developed to study the long-term response of the climate system to natural and anthropogenic forcings as part of the 5th Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This model includes an interactive carbon cycle, a representation of tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry, and a comprehensive representation of aerosols. As it represents the principal dynamical, physical, and bio-geochemical processes relevant to the climate system, it may be referred to as an Earth System Model. However, the IPSL-CM5 model may be used in a multitude of configurations associated with different boundary conditions and with a range of complexities in terms of processes and interactions. This paper presents an overview of the different model components and explains how they were coupled and used to simulate historical climate changes over the past 150 years and different scenarios of future climate change. A single version of the IPSL-CM5 model (IPSL-CM5A-LR) was used to provide climate projections associated with different socio-economic scenarios, including the different Representative Concentration Pathways considered by CMIP5 and several scenarios from the Special Report on Emission Scenarios considered by CMIP3. Results suggest that the magnitude of global warming projections primarily depends on the socio-economic scenario considered, that there is potential for an aggressive mitigation policy to limit global warming to about two degrees, and that the behavior of some components of the climate system such as the Arctic sea ice and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation may change drastically by the end of the twenty-first century in the case of a no climate policy scenario. Although the magnitude of regional temperature and precipitation changes depends fairly linearly on the magnitude of the projected global warming (and thus on the scenario considered), the geographical pattern of these changes is strikingly similar for the different scenarios. The representation of atmospheric physical processes in the model is shown to strongly influence the simulated climate variability and both the magnitude and pattern of the projected climate changes.

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses

PubMed Central

Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Villegas, Juan C.; Breshears, David D.; Law, Darin J.; Saleska, Scott R.; Stark, Scott C.

2016-01-01

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates of deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia’s GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. Our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change. PMID:27851740

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses

DOE PAGES

Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Villegas, Juan C.; ...

2016-11-16

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates ofmore » deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. In conclusion, our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.« less

Predicting body temperature and activity of adult Polyommatus icarus using neural network models under current and projected climate scenarios.

PubMed

Howe, P D; Bryant, S R; Shreeve, T G

2007-10-01

We use field observations in two geographic regions within the British Isles and regression and neural network models to examine the relationship between microhabitat use, thoracic temperatures and activity in a widespread lycaenid butterfly, Polyommatus icarus. We also make predictions for future activity under climate change scenarios. Individuals from a univoltine northern population initiated flight with significantly lower thoracic temperatures than individuals from a bivoltine southern population. Activity is dependent on body temperature and neural network models of body temperature are better at predicting body temperature than generalized linear models. Neural network models of activity with a sole input of predicted body temperature (using weather and microclimate variables) are good predictors of observed activity and were better predictors than generalized linear models. By modelling activity under climate change scenarios for 2080 we predict differences in activity in relation to both regional differences of climate change and differing body temperature requirements for activity in different populations. Under average conditions for low-emission scenarios there will be little change in the activity of individuals from central-southern Britain and a reduction in northwest Scotland from 2003 activity levels. Under high-emission scenarios, flight-dependent activity in northwest Scotland will increase the greatest, despite smaller predicted increases in temperature and decreases in cloud cover. We suggest that neural network models are an effective way of predicting future activity in changing climates for microhabitat-specialist butterflies and that regional differences in the thermoregulatory response of populations will have profound effects on how they respond to climate change.

Synergistic Ecoclimate Teleconnections from Forest Loss in Different Regions Structure Global Ecological Responses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garcia, Elizabeth S.; Swann, Abigail L. S.; Villegas, Juan C.

Forest loss in hotspots around the world impacts not only local climate where loss occurs, but also influences climate and vegetation in remote parts of the globe through ecoclimate teleconnections. The magnitude and mechanism of remote impacts likely depends on the location and distribution of forest loss hotspots, but the nature of these dependencies has not been investigated. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the distribution of ecologically-relevant climate changes resulting from forest loss in two hotspot regions: western North America (wNA), which is experiencing accelerated dieoff, and the Amazon basin, which is subject to high rates ofmore » deforestation. The remote climatic and ecological net effects of simultaneous forest loss in both regions differed from the combined effects of loss from the two regions simulated separately, as evident in three impacted areas. Eastern South American Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) increased due to changes in seasonal rainfall associated with Amazon forest loss and changes in temperature related to wNA forest loss. Eurasia's GPP declined with wNA forest loss due to cooling temperatures increasing soil ice volume. Southeastern North American productivity increased with simultaneous forest loss, but declined with only wNA forest loss due to changes in VPD. In conclusion, our results illustrate the need for a new generation of local-to-global scale analyses to identify potential ecoclimate teleconnections, their underlying mechanisms, and most importantly, their synergistic interactions, to predict the responses to increasing forest loss under future land use change and climate change.« less

Climate dependency of tree growth suppressed by acid deposition effects on soils in Northwest Russia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawrence, G.B.; Lapenis, A.G.; Berggren, D.; Aparin, B.F.; Smith, K.T.; Shortle, W.C.; Bailey, S.W.; Varlyguin, D.L.; Babikov, B.

2005-01-01

Increased tree growth in temperate and boreal forests has been proposed as a direct consequence of a warming climate. Acid deposition effects on nutrient availability may influence the climate dependency of tree growth, however. This study presents an analysis of archived soil samples that has enabled changes in soil chemistry to be tracked with patterns of tree growth through the 20th century. Soil samples collected in 1926, 1964, and 2001, near St. Petersburg, Russia, showed that acid deposition was likely to have decreased root-available concentrations of Ca (an essential element) and increased root-available concentrations of Al (an inhibitor of Ca uptake). These soil changes coincided with decreased diameter growth and a suppression of climate-tree growth relationships in Norway spruce. Expected increases in tree growth from climate warming may be limited by decreased soil fertility in regions of northern and eastern Europe, and eastern North America, where Ca availability has been reduced by acidic deposition. ?? 2005 American Chemical Society.

Bioenergetic response by steelhead to variation in diet, thermal habitat, and climate in the north Pacific Ocean

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atcheson, Margaret E.; Myers, Katherine W.; Beauchamp, David A.; Mantua, Nathan J.

2012-01-01

Energetic responses of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss to climate-driven changes in marine conditions are expected to affect the species’ ocean distribution, feeding, growth, and survival. With a unique 18-year data series (1991–2008) for steelhead sampled in the open ocean, we simulated interannual variation in prey consumption and growth efficiency of steelhead using a bioenergetics model to evaluate the temperature-dependent growth response of steelhead to past climate events and to estimate growth potential of steelhead under future climate scenarios. Our results showed that annual ocean growth of steelhead is highly variable depending on prey quality, consumption rates, total consumption, and thermal experience. At optimal growing temperatures, steelhead can compensate for a low-energy diet by increasing consumption rates and consuming more prey, if available. Our findings suggest that steelhead have a narrow temperature window in which to achieve optimal growth, which is strongly influenced by climate-driven changes in ocean temperature.

Climate dependency of tree growth suppressed by acid deposition effects on soils in northwest Russia.

PubMed

Lawrence, Gregory B; Lapenis, Andrei G; Berggren, Dan; Aparin, Boris F; Smith, Kevin T; Shortle, Walter C; Bailey, Scott W; Varlyguin, Dmitry L; Babikov, Boris

2005-04-01

Increased tree growth in temperate and boreal forests has been proposed as a direct consequence of a warming climate. Acid deposition effects on nutrient availability may influence the climate dependency of tree growth, however. This study presents an analysis of archived soil samples that has enabled changes in soil chemistry to be tracked with patterns of tree growth through the 20th century. Soil samples collected in 1926, 1964, and 2001, near St. Petersburg, Russia, showed that acid deposition was likely to have decreased root-available concentrations of Ca (an essential element) and increased root-available concentrations of Al (an inhibitor of Ca uptake). These soil changes coincided with decreased diameter growth and a suppression of climate-tree growth relationships in Norway spruce. Expected increases in tree growth from climate warming may be limited by decreased soil fertility in regions of northern and eastern Europe, and eastern North America, where Ca availability has been reduced by acidic deposition.

Drought and increased CO2 alter floral visual and olfactory traits with context-dependent effects on pollinator visitation

Treesearch

William R. Glenny; Justin B. Runyon; Laura A. Burkle

2018-01-01

Climate change can alter species interactions essential for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem function, such as pollination. Understanding the interactive effects of multiple abiotic conditions on floral traits and pollinator visitation are important to anticipate the implications of climate change on pollinator services. Floral visual and olfactory traits were...

Evidence of tree species’ range shifts in a complex landscape

Treesearch

Vicente J. Monleon; Heather E. Lintz; Sylvain Delzon

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to change the distribution of species. For long-lived, sessile species such as trees, tracking the warming climate depends on seedling colonization of newly favorable areas. We compare the distribution of seedlings and mature trees for all but the rarest tree species in California, Oregon and Washington, United States of America, a large,...

Mechanisms of elevation-dependent warming over complex terrain in high-resolution simulations of regional climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Minder, J. R.; Letcher, T.; Liu, C.

2016-12-01

Numerous observational and modeling studies have suggested that over mountainous terrain certain elevations can experience systematically enhanced rates of near-surface climate warming relative to the surrounding region, a phenomenon referred to as elevation-dependent warming (EDW). In many of these studies high-elevation locations were found to experience the fastest warming rates. A variety of physical mechanisms for EDW have been proposed but there is no consensus as to the dominant cause. We examine EDW in regional climate model (RCM) simulations with very high horizontal resolution (4-km horizontal grid). The simulation domain centers on the Rocky Mountains and intermountain west of the United States. Climate change simulations are conducted using the "pseudo global warming" framework to focus on the regional response to large-scale thermodynamic and radiative climate changes representative of mid-century anthropogenic global climate change. Substantial EDW is found in these simulations. Warming varies with elevation by up to 1°C depending on the season considered. The structure of EDW is only weakly sensitive to variations in horizontal grid spacing ranging from 4 to 36 km. The snow-albedo feedback (SAF) plays a major role in causing the simulated EDW. The elevation band of maximum warming varies seasonally, mostly following the margin of the seasonal snowpack where snow cover and albedo reductions are maximized under climate warming. Additional simulations where the SAF is artificially suppressed demonstrate that EDW variations of up to 0.6°C can be attributed to the SAF. Simulations with a suppressed SAF still exhibit EDW variations up to 0.8°C that must be explained by other mechanisms. This remaining EDW shows a near linear increase in warming with elevation in most months and does not appear to be inherited from the profile of large-scale free-tropospheric warming. Simple theoretical calculations suggest that the non-linear dependence of surface emission on temperature offers one promising mechanism. The role of water vapor and cloud feedbacks are also considered as alternative mechanisms.

Persistent and pervasive compositional shifts of western boreal forest plots in Canada.

PubMed

Searle, Eric B; Chen, Han Y H

2017-02-01

Species compositional shifts have important consequences to biodiversity and ecosystem function and services to humanity. In boreal forests, compositional shifts from late-successional conifers to early-successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves have been postulated based on increased fire frequency associated with climate change truncating stand age-dependent succession. However, little is known about how climate change has affected forest composition in the background between successive catastrophic fires in boreal forests. Using 1797 permanent sample plots from western boreal forests of Canada measured from 1958 to 2013, we show that after accounting for stand age-dependent succession, the relative abundances of early-successional deciduous broadleaves and early-successional conifers have increased at the expense of late-successional conifers with climate change. These background compositional shifts are persistent temporally, consistent across all forest stand ages and pervasive spatially across the region. Rising atmospheric CO 2 promoted early-successional conifers and deciduous broadleaves, and warming increased early-successional conifers at the expense of late-successional conifers, but compositional shifts were not associated with climate moisture index. Our results emphasize the importance of climate change on background compositional shifts in the boreal forest and suggest further compositional shifts as rising CO 2 and warming will continue in the 21st century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change as a driver for future human migration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

2016-12-01

Human migration is driven by a multitude of factors, both socioeconomic and environmental. However, as impacts of anthropogenic climate change emerge and grow, it is widely conjectured that climate change will induce migration of human populations from areas that are adversely affected by climate change to areas that are less adversely or positively affected by climate change. Both low- and high-frequency climate changes have been empirically linked to migration in areas across the globe, but there has been little global-scale quantitative analysis projecting the scale and geography of climate-motivated migration. Considering temperature and precipitation in isolation from all other factors, here we project climate-driven impacts on the areal-density of human population. From this, we infer potential destinations and origins for the climate-motivated migration. Our results indicate that tropical and sub-tropical countries are the largest likely sources of migrants, with India being the country with the greatest number of potential climate emigrants. Global warming has the potential to motivate hundreds of millions of people to migrate in the coming decades, largely from warm tropical and subtropical countries to cooler temperate countries. Migration decisions will depend on many factors beyond climate; nevertheless our work establishes a foundation for quantifying future climate-motivated migration that can act as a starting point of more comprehensive assessments. The large number of potential climate migrants indicated by our analyses provides additional incentive to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, take adaptive measures, and carefully consider migration policy.

Separating the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: A review of methodologies and critical assumptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dey, Pankaj; Mishra, Ashok

2017-05-01

Climate change and human activity are two major drivers that alter hydrological cycle processes and cause change in spatio-temporal distribution of water availability. Streamflow, the most important component of hydrological cycle undergoes variation which is expected to be influenced by climate change as well as human activities. Since these two affecting conditions are time dependent, having unequal influence, identification of the change point in natural flow regime is of utmost important to separate the individual impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow variability. Subsequently, it is important as well for framing adaptation strategies and policies for regional water resources planning and management. In this paper, a comprehensive review of different approaches used by research community to isolate the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow are presented. The important issues pertaining to different approaches, to make rational use of methodology, are discussed so that researcher and policymaker can understand the importance of individual methodology and its use in water resources management. A new approach has also been suggested to select a representative change point under different scenarios of human activities with incorporation of climate variability/change.

Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

PubMed Central

Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

2004-01-01

The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

Curve number method response to historical climate variability and trends

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

With the dependence on the curve number (CN) model by the engineering community, the question arises as to whether changes in climate may affect the performance of the CN algorithm which impacts estimates of runoff. A study was conducted to determine the effects of “climate period” (period of unifor...

Effects of climatic conditions and management practices on agricultural carbon and water budgets in the Inland Pacific Northwest USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Cropland is an important land cover influencing global carbon and water cycles. Variability of agricultural carbon and water fluxes depends on crop species, management practices, soil characteristics, and climatic conditions. In the context of climate change, it is critical to quantify the long-term...

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE PAGES

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François; ...

2017-07-31

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

Future Global Mortality from Changes in Air Pollution Attributable to Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd A.; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Naik, Vaishali;

Future global mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-François

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with premature human mortality(1-4); their future concentrations depend on changes in emissions, which dominate the near-term(5), and on climate change(6,7). Previous global studies of the air-quality-related health effects of future climate change(8,9) used single atmospheric models. But, in related studies, mortality results differ among models(10-12). Here we use an ensemble of global chemistry-climate models(13) to show that premature mortality from changes in air pollution attributable to climate change, under the high greenhouse gas scenario RCP8.5 (ref. 14), is probably positive. We estimate 3,340 (-30,300 to 47,100) ozone-related deaths in 2030, relativemore » to 2000 climate, and 43,600 (-195,000 to 237,000) in 2100 (14% of the increase in global ozone-related mortality). For PM2.5, we estimate 55,600 (-34,300 to 164,000) deaths in 2030 and 215,000 (-76,100 to 595,000) in 2100 (countering by 16% the global decrease in PM2.5-related mortality). Premature mortality attributable to climate change is estimated to be positive in all regions except Africa, and is greatest in India and East Asia. Finally, most individual models yield increased mortality from climate change, but some yield decreases, suggesting caution in interpreting results from a single model. Climate change mitigation is likely to reduce air-pollution-related mortality.« less

The Limits to Adaptation: A Systems Approach

EPA Science Inventory

The ability to adapt to climate change is delineated by capacity thresholds, after which climate damages begin to overwhelm the adaptation response. Such thresholds depend upon physical properties (natural processes and engineering parameters), resource constraints (expressed th...

Response of grassland biomass production to simulated climate change and clipping along an elevation gradient.

PubMed

Carlyle, Cameron N; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Turkington, Roy

2014-03-01

Changes in rainfall and temperature regimes are altering plant productivity in grasslands worldwide, and these climate change factors are likely to interact with grassland disturbances, particularly grazing. Understanding how plant production responds to both climate change and defoliation, and how this response varies among grassland types, is important for the long-term sustainability of grasslands. For 4 years, we manipulated temperature [ambient and increased using open-top chambers (OTC)], water (ambient, reduced using rainout shelters and increased using hand watering) and defoliation (clipped, and unclipped) in three grassland types along an elevation gradient. We monitored plant cover and biomass and found that OTC reduced biomass by 15%, but clipping and water treatments interacted with each other and their effects varied in different grassland types. For example, total biomass did not decline in the higher elevation grasslands due to clipping, and water addition mitigated the effects of clipping on subordinate grasses in the lower grasslands. The response of total biomass was driven by dominant plant species while subordinate grasses and forbs showed more variable responses. Overall, our results demonstrate that biomass in the highest elevation grassland was least effected by the treatments and the response of biomass tended to be dependent on interactions between climate change treatments and defoliation. Together, the results suggest that ecosystem function of these grasslands under altered climate patterns will be dependent on site-specific management.

Technology-Driven and Innovative Training for Sustainable Agriculture in The Face of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wishart, D. N.

2015-12-01

Innovative training in 'Sustainable Agriculture' for an increasingly STEM-dependent agricultural sector will require a combination of approaches and technologies for global agricultural production to increase while offsetting climate change. Climate change impacts the water resources of nations as normal global weather patterns are altered during El Nino events. Agricultural curricula must incorporate awareness of 'climate change' in order to find novel ways to (1) assure global food security; (2) improve soil productivity and conservation; (3) improve crop yields and irrigation; (4) inexpensively develop site specific principles of crop management based on variable soil and associated hydrological properties; and (5) improve precision farming. In February 2015, Central State University (CSU), Ohio became an 1890 Land-Grant institution vital to the sustainability of Ohio's agricultural sector. Besides agricultural extension, the agriculture curriculum at CSU integrates multidisciplinary courses in science, technology engineering, agriculture, and mathematics (STEAM). The agriculture program could benefit from a technology-driven, interdisciplinary soil science course that promotes climate change education and climate literacy while being offered in both a blended and collaborative learning environment. The course will focus on the dynamics of microscale to mesoscale processes occurring in farming systems, those of which impact climate change or could be impacted by climate change. Elements of this course will include: climate change webinars; soil-climate interactions; carbon cycling; the balance of carbon fluxes between soil storage and atmosphere; microorganisms and soil carbon storage; paleoclimate and soil forming processes; geophysical techniques used in the characterization of soil horizons; impact of climate change on soil fertility; experiments; and demonstrations.

Temperate Mountain Forest Biodiversity under Climate Change: Compensating Negative Effects by Increasing Structural Complexity

PubMed Central

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species’ occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species’ occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change. PMID:24823495

Temperate mountain forest biodiversity under climate change: compensating negative effects by increasing structural complexity.

PubMed

Braunisch, Veronika; Coppes, Joy; Arlettaz, Raphaël; Suchant, Rudi; Zellweger, Florian; Bollmann, Kurt

2014-01-01

Species adapted to cold-climatic mountain environments are expected to face a high risk of range contractions, if not local extinctions under climate change. Yet, the populations of many endothermic species may not be primarily affected by physiological constraints, but indirectly by climate-induced changes of habitat characteristics. In mountain forests, where vertebrate species largely depend on vegetation composition and structure, deteriorating habitat suitability may thus be mitigated or even compensated by habitat management aiming at compositional and structural enhancement. We tested this possibility using four cold-adapted bird species with complementary habitat requirements as model organisms. Based on species data and environmental information collected in 300 1-km2 grid cells distributed across four mountain ranges in central Europe, we investigated (1) how species' occurrence is explained by climate, landscape, and vegetation, (2) to what extent climate change and climate-induced vegetation changes will affect habitat suitability, and (3) whether these changes could be compensated by adaptive habitat management. Species presence was modelled as a function of climate, landscape and vegetation variables under current climate; moreover, vegetation-climate relationships were assessed. The models were extrapolated to the climatic conditions of 2050, assuming the moderate IPCC-scenario A1B, and changes in species' occurrence probability were quantified. Finally, we assessed the maximum increase in occurrence probability that could be achieved by modifying one or multiple vegetation variables under altered climate conditions. Climate variables contributed significantly to explaining species occurrence, and expected climatic changes, as well as climate-induced vegetation trends, decreased the occurrence probability of all four species, particularly at the low-altitudinal margins of their distribution. These effects could be partly compensated by modifying single vegetation factors, but full compensation would only be achieved if several factors were changed in concert. The results illustrate the possibilities and limitations of adaptive species conservation management under climate change.

The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

2013-12-01

Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

Impacts of climate variability and change on crop yield in sub-Sahara Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, S.; Zhang, J.; Yang, J.; Chen, G.; Xu, R.; Zhang, B.; Lou, Y.

2017-12-01

Much concern has been raised about the impacts of climate change and climate extremes on Africa's food security. The impact of climate change on Africa's agriculture is likely to be severe compared to other continents due to high rain-fed agricultural dependence, and limited ability to mitigate and adapt to climate change. In recent decades, warming in Africa is more pronounced and faster than the global average and this trend is likely to continue in the future. However, quantitative assessment on impacts of climate extremes and climate change on crop yield has not been well investigated yet. By using an improved agricultural module of the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model (DLEM-AG2) driven by spatially-explicit information on land use, climate and other environmental changes, we have assessed impacts of historical climate variability and future climate change on food crop yield across the sub-Sahara Africa during1980-2016 and the rest of the 21st century (2017-2099). Our simulated results indicate that African crop yield in the past three decades shows an increasing trend primarily due to cropland expansion. However, crop yield shows substantially spatial and temporal variation due to inter-annual and inter-decadal climate variability and spatial heterogeneity of environmental drivers. Droughts have largely reduced crop yield in the most vulnerable regions of Sub-Sahara Africa. Future projections with DLEM-AG2 show that food crop production in Sub-Sahara Africa would be favored with limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.50 C.

Climate influences on the cost-effectiveness of vector-based interventions against malaria in elimination scenarios.

PubMed

Parham, Paul E; Hughes, Dyfrig A

2015-04-05

Despite the dependence of mosquito population dynamics on environmental conditions, the associated impact of climate and climate change on present and future malaria remains an area of ongoing debate and uncertainty. Here, we develop a novel integration of mosquito, transmission and economic modelling to assess whether the cost-effectiveness of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) against Plasmodium falciparum transmission by Anopheles gambiae s.s. mosquitoes depends on climatic conditions in low endemicity scenarios. We find that although temperature and rainfall affect the cost-effectiveness of IRS and/or LLIN scale-up, whether this is sufficient to influence policy depends on local endemicity, existing interventions, host immune response to infection and the emergence rate of insecticide resistance. For the scenarios considered, IRS is found to be more cost-effective than LLINs for the same level of scale-up, and both are more cost-effective at lower mean precipitation and higher variability in precipitation and temperature. We also find that the dependence of peak transmission on mean temperature translates into optimal temperatures for vector-based intervention cost-effectiveness. Further cost-effectiveness analysis that accounts for country-specific epidemiological and environmental heterogeneities is required to assess optimal intervention scale-up for elimination and better understand future transmission trends under climate change. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Biologically Based Methods for Pest Management in Agriculture under Changing Climates: Challenges and Future Directions.

PubMed

Chidawanyika, Frank; Mudavanhu, Pride; Nyamukondiwa, Casper

2012-11-09

The current changes in global climatic regimes present a significant societal challenge, affecting in all likelihood insect physiology, biochemistry, biogeography and population dynamics. With the increasing resistance of many insect pest species to chemical insecticides and an increasing organic food market, pest control strategies are slowly shifting towards more sustainable, ecologically sound and economically viable options. Biologically based pest management strategies present such opportunities through predation or parasitism of pests and plant direct or indirect defense mechanisms that can all be important components of sustainable integrated pest management programs. Inevitably, the efficacy of biological control systems is highly dependent on natural enemy-prey interactions, which will likely be modified by changing climates. Therefore, knowledge of how insect pests and their natural enemies respond to climate variation is of fundamental importance in understanding biological insect pest management under global climate change. Here, we discuss biological control, its challenges under climate change scenarios and how increased global temperatures will require adaptive management strategies to cope with changing status of insects and their natural enemies.

Climate Change and the Greenhouse Effect - Nature and Humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alevizos, Anastasios; Zygouras, Grigorios

2014-05-01

In this project twenty A grade students of Lyceum (age 16) were involved (2011-12) and had been learning to give answers to questions about greenhouse gases, their origin and the processes forming them with regard to human activity on our planet and our dependence on fossil fuels. They had considered whether and how this dependence affects global warming, how this dependence can be reduced by changing attitudes and using renewable energy sources and further more they had put questions and doubts about anthropogenic global warming existence. The student dialogues during a '' TV series debate '' concerning the views, questions and answers of three groups, the ''IPCCs'', the ''CLIMATE SCEPTICS'' and the '' REALISTS'' are exposed on a poster.

Accuracy requirements. [for monitoring of climate changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delgenio, Anthony

1993-01-01

Satellite and surface measurements, if they are to serve as a climate monitoring system, must be accurate enough to permit detection of changes of climate parameters on decadal time scales. The accuracy requirements are difficult to define a priori since they depend on unknown future changes of climate forcings and feedbacks. As a framework for evaluation of candidate Climsat instruments and orbits, we estimate the accuracies that would be needed to measure changes expected over two decades based on theoretical considerations including GCM simulations and on observational evidence in cases where data are available for rates of change. One major climate forcing known with reasonable accuracy is that caused by the anthropogenic homogeneously mixed greenhouse gases (CO2, CFC's, CH4 and N2O). Their net forcing since the industrial revolution began is about 2 W/sq m and it is presently increasing at a rate of about 1 W/sq m per 20 years. Thus for a competing forcing or feedback to be important, it needs to be of the order of 0.25 W/sq m or larger on this time scale. The significance of most climate feedbacks depends on their sensitivity to temperature change. Therefore we begin with an estimate of decadal temperature change. Presented are the transient temperature trends simulated by the GISS GCM when subjected to various scenarios of trace gas concentration increases. Scenario B, which represents the most plausible near-term emission rates and includes intermittent forcing by volcanic aerosols, yields a global mean surface air temperature increase Delta Ts = 0.7 degrees C over the time period 1995-2015. This is consistent with the IPCC projection of about 0.3 degrees C/decade global warming (IPCC, 1990). Several of our estimates below are based on this assumed rate of warming.

On possible interconnections between Climate Change and Earth rotation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zotov, Leonid; Christian, Bizouard; Sidorenkov, Nikolay

The question of interconnections between rotation of the Earth and Climate Change raised more, then 30 years ago. In Lambeck’s, Sidorenkov’s and others books the correlation between the secular changes of temperature and rotation velocity of the Earth was found. Since Climate Change brings to the redistribution of water and ice mass, ocean currents and atmospheric circulation, it also influences the angular momentum and moment of inertia of the Earth system, what causes variations in its rotation. We present the results of analysis of global temperature, sea level, Chandler wobble, atmospheric winds, and length of day (LOD) changes with arguments testifying possible interrelations between these processes and their dependence on space factors.

The sensitivity of Alpine summer convection to surrogate climate change: an intercomparison between convection-parameterizing and convection-resolving models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, Michael; Kröner, Nico; Fuhrer, Oliver; Lüthi, Daniel; Schmidli, Juerg; Stengel, Martin; Stöckli, Reto; Schär, Christoph

2018-04-01

Climate models project an increase in heavy precipitation events in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Important elements of such events are rain showers and thunderstorms, which are poorly represented in models with parameterized convection. In this study, simulations with 12 km horizontal grid spacing (convection-parameterizing model, CPM) and 2 km grid spacing (convection-resolving model, CRM) are employed to investigate the change in the diurnal cycle of convection with warmer climate. For this purpose, simulations of 11 days in June 2007 with a pronounced diurnal cycle of convection are compared with surrogate simulations from the same period. The surrogate climate simulations mimic a future climate with increased temperatures but unchanged relative humidity and similar synoptic-scale circulation. Two temperature scenarios are compared: one with homogeneous warming (HW) using a vertically uniform warming and the other with vertically dependent warming (VW) that enables changes in lapse rate. The two sets of simulations with parameterized and explicit convection exhibit substantial differences, some of which are well known from the literature. These include differences in the timing and amplitude of the diurnal cycle of convection, and the frequency of precipitation with low intensities. The response to climate change is much less studied. We can show that stratification changes have a strong influence on the changes in convection. Precipitation is strongly increasing for HW but decreasing for the VW simulations. For cloud type frequencies, virtually no changes are found for HW, but a substantial reduction in high clouds is found for VW. Further, we can show that the climate change signal strongly depends upon the horizontal resolution. In particular, significant differences between CPM and CRM are found in terms of the radiative feedbacks, with CRM exhibiting a stronger negative feedback in the top-of-the-atmosphere energy budget.

Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Inland Pacific Northwest Cereal Production Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eigenbrode, S. D.; Abatzoglou, J. T.; Burke, I. C.; Capalbo, S.; Gessler, P.; Huggins, D. R.; Johnson-Maynard, J.; Kruger, C.; Lamb, B. K.; Machado, S.; Mote, P.; Painter, K.; Pan, W.; Petrie, S.; Paulitz, T. C.; Stockle, C.; Walden, V. P.; Wulfhorst, J. D.; Wolf, K. J.

2011-12-01

The long-term environmental and economic sustainability of agriculture in the Inland Pacific Northwest (northern Idaho, north central Oregon, and eastern Washington) depends upon improving agricultural management, technology, and policy to enable adaptation to climate change and to help realize agriculture's potential to contribute to climate change mitigation. To address this challenge, three land-grant institutions (Oregon State University, the University of Idaho and Washington State University) (OSU, UI, WSU) and USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS) units are partners in a collaborative project - Regional Approaches to Climate Change for Pacific Northwest Agriculture (REACCH-PNA). The overarching goal of REACCH is to enhance the sustainability of Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) cereal production systems under ongoing and projected climate change while contributing to climate change mitigation. Supporting goals include: - Develop and implement sustainable agricultural practices for cereal production within existing and projected agroecological zones throughout the region as climate changes, - Contribute to climate change mitigation through improved fertilizer, fuel, and pesticide use efficiency, increased sequestration of soil carbon, and reduced greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consistent with the 2030 targets set by the USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA), - Work closely with stakeholders and policymakers to promote science-based agricultural approaches to climate change adaptation and mitigation, - Increase the number of scientists, educators, and extension professionals with the skills and knowledge to address climate change and its interactions with agriculture. In this poster, we provide an overview of the specific goals of this project and activities that are underway since its inception in spring of 2011.

Mountain Plant Community Sentinels: AWOL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malanson, G. P.

2017-12-01

Mountain plant communities are thought to be sensitive to climate change. Because climatic gradients are steep on mountain slopes, the spatial response of plant communities to climate change should be compressed and easier to detect. These expectations have led to identifying mountain plant communities as sentinels for climate change. This idea has, however, been criticized. Two critiques, for alpine treeline and alpine tundra, are rehearsed and supplemented. The critique of alpine treeline as sentinel is bolstered with new model results on the confounding role of dispersal mechanisms and sensitivity to climatic volatility. In alpine tundra, for which background turnover rates have yet to be established, community composition may reflect environmental gradients only for extremes where effects of climate are most indirect. Both plant communities, while primarily determined by energy at broad scales, may respond to water as a proximate driver at local scales. These plant communities may not be in equilibrium with climate, and differently scaled time lags may mean that ongoing vegetation change may not signal ongoing climate change (or lack thereof). In both cases a double-whammy is created by scale dependence for time lags and for drivers leading to confusion, but these cases present opportunities for insights into basic ecology.

Soil ecosystem functioning under climate change: plant species and community effects

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kardol, Paul; Cregger, Melissa; Campany, Courtney E

2010-01-01

Feedbacks of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change depend on soil ecosystem dynamics. Soil ecosystems can directly and indirectly respond to climate change. For example, warming directly alters microbial communities by increasing their activity. Climate change may also alter plant community composition, thus indirectly altering the microbial communities that feed on their inputs. To better understand how climate change may directly and indirectly alter soil ecosystem functioning, we investigated old-field plant community and soil ecosystem responses to single and combined effects of elevated [CO2], warming, and water availability. Specifically, we collected soils at the plot level (plant community soils), and beneathmore » dominant plant species (plant-specific soils). We used microbial enzyme activities and soil nematodes as indicators for soil ecosystem functioning. Our study resulted in two main findings: 1) Overall, while there were some interactions, water, relative to increases in [CO2] and warming, had the largest impact on plant community composition, soil enzyme activities, and soil nematodes. Multiple climate change factors can interact to shape ecosystems, but in this case, those interactions were largely driven by changes in water availability. 2) Indirect effects of climate change, via changes in plant communities, had a significant impact on soil ecosystem functioning and this impact was not obvious when looking at plant community soils. Climate change effects on enzyme activities and soil nematode abundance and community structure strongly differed between plant community soils and plant-specific soils, but also within plant-specific soils. In sum, these results indicate that accurate assessments of climate change impacts on soil ecosystem functioning require incorporating the concurrent changes in plant function and plant community composition. Climate change-induced shifts in plant community composition will likely modify or counteract the direct impact of climate change on soil ecosystem functioning, and hence, these indirect effects should be taken into account when predicting how climate change will alter ecosystem functioning.« less

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Leedale, Joseph; Jones, Anne E; Caminade, Cyril; Morse, Andrew P

2016-03-31

Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF) model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2009-12-01

In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Climate Vulnerability and Human Migration in Global Perspective

PubMed Central

Grecequet, Martina; DeWaard, Jack; Hellmann, Jessica J.; Abel, Guy J.

2018-01-01

The relationship between climate change and human migration is not homogenous and depends critically on the differential vulnerability of population and places. If places and populations are not vulnerable, or susceptible, to climate change, then the climate–migration relationship may not materialize. The key to understanding and, from a policy perspective, planning for whether and how climate change will impact future migration patterns is therefore knowledge of the link between climate vulnerability and migration. However, beyond specific case studies, little is known about this association in global perspective. We therefore provide a descriptive, country-level portrait of this relationship. We show that the negative association between climate vulnerability and international migration holds only for countries least vulnerable to climate change, which suggests the potential for trapped populations in more vulnerable countries. However, when analyzed separately by life supporting sector (food, water, health, ecosystem services, human habitat, and infrastructure) and vulnerability dimension (exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity), we detect evidence of a relationship among more, but not the most, vulnerable countries. The bilateral (i.e., country-to-country) migration show that, on average, people move from countries of higher vulnerability to lower vulnerability, reducing global risk by 15%. This finding is consistent with the idea that migration is a climate adaptation strategy. Still, ~6% of bilateral migration is maladaptive with respect to climate change, with some movement toward countries with greater climate change vulnerability. PMID:29707262

Potential distribution of dengue fever under scenarios of climate change and economic development.

PubMed

Aström, Christofer; Rocklöv, Joacim; Hales, Simon; Béguin, Andreas; Louis, Valerie; Sauerborn, Rainer

2012-12-01

Dengue fever is the most important viral vector-borne disease with ~50 million cases per year globally. Previous estimates of the potential effect of global climate change on the distribution of vector-borne disease have not incorporated the effect of socioeconomic factors, which may have biased the results. We describe an empirical model of the current geographic distribution of dengue, based on the independent effects of climate and gross domestic product per capita (GDPpc, a proxy for socioeconomic development). We use the model, along with scenario-based projections of future climate, economic development, and population, to estimate populations at risk of dengue in the year 2050. We find that both climate and GDPpc influence the distribution of dengue. If the global climate changes as projected but GDPpc remained constant, the population at risk of dengue is estimated to increase by about 0.28 billion in 2050. However, if both climate and GDPpc change as projected, we estimate a decrease of 0.12 billion in the population at risk of dengue in 2050. Empirically, the geographic distribution of dengue is strongly dependent on both climatic and socioeconomic variables. Under a scenario of constant GDPpc, global climate change results in a modest but important increase in the global population at risk of dengue. Under scenarios of high GDPpc, this adverse effect of climate change is counteracted by the beneficial effect of socioeconomic development.

Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile.

PubMed

Blennow, Kristina; Persson, Johannes; Persson, Erik; Hanewinkel, Marc

2016-01-01

Do forest owners' levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile.

Rural Nevada and climate change: vulnerability, beliefs, and risk perception.

PubMed

Safi, Ahmad Saleh; Smith, William James; Liu, Zhnongwei

2012-06-01

In this article, we present the results of a study investigating the influence of vulnerability to climate change as a function of physical vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on climate change risk perception. In 2008/2009, we surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers to assess their climate change-related beliefs, and risk perceptions, political orientations, and socioeconomic characteristics. Ranchers' and farmers' sensitivity to climate change was measured through estimating the proportion of their household income originating from highly scarce water-dependent agriculture to the total income. Adaptive capacity was measured as a combination of the Social Status Index and the Poverty Index. Utilizing water availability and use, and population distribution GIS databases; we assessed water resource vulnerability in Nevada by zip code as an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change. We performed correlation tests and multiple regression analyses to examine the impact of vulnerability and its three distinct components on risk perception. We find that vulnerability is not a significant determinant of risk perception. Physical vulnerability alone also does not impact risk perception. Both sensitivity and adaptive capacity increase risk perception. While age is not a significant determinant of it, gender plays an important role in shaping risk perception. Yet, general beliefs such as political orientations and climate change-specific beliefs such as believing in the anthropogenic causes of climate change and connecting the locally observed impacts (in this case drought) to climate change are the most prominent determinants of risk perception. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Impacts of climate change on the microbial safety of pre-harvest leafy green vegetables as indicated by Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.

PubMed

Liu, Cheng; Hofstra, Nynke; Franz, Eelco

2013-05-15

The likelihood of leafy green vegetable (LGV) contamination and the associated pathogen growth and survival are strongly related to climatic conditions. Particularly temperature increase and precipitation pattern changes have a close relationship not only with the fate and transport of enteric bacteria, but also with their growth and survival. Using all relevant literature, this study reviews and synthesises major impacts of climate change (temperature increases and precipitation pattern changes) on contamination sources (manure, soil, surface water, sewage and wildlife) and pathways of foodborne pathogens (focussing on Escherichia coli O157 and Salmonella spp.) on pre-harvested LGVs. Whether climate change increases their prevalence depends not only on the resulting local balance of the positive and negative impacts but also on the selected regional climate change scenarios. However, the contamination risks are likely to increase. This review shows the need for quantitative modelling approaches with scenario analyses and additional laboratory experiments. This study gives an extensive overview of the impacts of climate change on the contamination of pre-harvested LGVs and shows that climate change should not be ignored in food safety management and research. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

2013-04-01

The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc. Nonetheless, according to the results of this work future ozone is conditioned by the dependence of biogenic emissions on the climatological patterns of variability. In this sense, ozone over Europe is mainly driven by the warming-induced increase in biogenic emitting activity (vegetation is kept invariable in the simulations, but estimations of these emissions strongly depends on shortwave radiation and temperature, which are substantially modified in climatic simulations). Moreover, one of the most important drivers for ozone increase is the decrease of cloudiness (related to stronger solar radiation) mostly over southern Europe at the first half of the XXI century. However, given the large uncertainty isoprene sensitivity to climate change and the large uncertainties associated to the cloudiness projections, these results should be carefully considered.

Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions.

PubMed

Levy, Karen; Smith, Shanon M; Carlton, Elizabeth J

2018-06-01

Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data. A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.

Future land-use change emissions: CO2, BVOC and wildfire

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneth, A.; Knorr, W.; Hantson, S.; Anthoni, P.; Szogs, S.

2015-12-01

Historical land-use (LUC) change is known to have been a large source of CO2 emissions, mostly from deforestation: the equivalent of around 1/3 of today's CO2 in the atmosphere arises from LUC. And LUC will continue into the future, although the expected area change, the type of LUC (deforestation vs. afforestation/reforestation) and regions where the LUC will take place will differ greatly, depending on the future scenario. But LUC is not only of importance for projecting emissions of CO2. It also affects greatly emissions of biogenic volatile organic carbon, and from wildfires - all of which are important for the quantification of precursor substances relevant to air quality, and interactions with climate change. We show here that accounting for future socio-economic developments and LUC scenarios has the potential to override climate change and effects of CO2 fertilisation on fire and BVOC emission, regionally and in some cases also globally. Simulation experiments with the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS will be performed, covering the 20th and 21st century, and assessing a rage of future population growth, LUC and climate change scenarios. For wildfire emissions, we find that burned area and emissions depend greatly on the type of population growth scenario, and on the distribution of urban vs rural population. BVOC emissions depend greatly on the amount and location of deforestation vs the region and magnitude of forest expansion in response to warming, such as through expansion of vegetation in the northern hemisphere, and via reforestation/afforestation. LUC so far has not been given sufficient attention for simulations of future air quality-climate interactions. In terms of terrestrial precursor emissions of atmospherically reactive substances our simulations clearly demonstrate the importance of including LUC in combination with vegetation that responds dynamically to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2 levels.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: Habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Barsugli, Joseph J.; Rashford, Benjamin S.; Reese, Gordon C.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.; Wood, Andrew W.; Noon, Barry R.

2016-01-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species’ vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change.

The Limits to Adaptation; A Systems Approach

EPA Science Inventory

The Limits to Adaptation: A Systems Approach. The ability to adapt to climate change is delineated by capacity thresholds, after which climate damages begin to overwhelm the adaptation response. Such thresholds depend upon physical properties (natural processes and engineering...

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Bruno R; Sales, Lilian P; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

2016-01-01

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species' response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species' range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species' vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species' ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

PubMed Central

Ribeiro, Bruno R.; Sales, Lilian P.; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

2016-01-01

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts. PMID:27829036

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures.

PubMed

Xie, Gisselle Yang; Olson, Deanna H; Blaustein, Andrew R

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats.

Modelling rainfall erosion resulting from climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinnell, Peter

2016-04-01

It is well known that soil erosion leads to agricultural productivity decline and contributes to water quality decline. The current widely used models for determining soil erosion for management purposes in agriculture focus on long term (~20 years) average annual soil loss and are not well suited to determining variations that occur over short timespans and as a result of climate change. Soil loss resulting from rainfall erosion is directly dependent on the product of runoff and sediment concentration both of which are likely to be influenced by climate change. This presentation demonstrates the capacity of models like the USLE, USLE-M and WEPP to predict variations in runoff and erosion associated with rainfall events eroding bare fallow plots in the USA with a view to modelling rainfall erosion in areas subject to climate change.

Impact of climate change on occupational exposure to solar radiation.

PubMed

Grandi, Carlo; Borra, Massimo; Militello, Andrea; Polichetti, Alessandro

2016-01-01

Occupational exposure to solar radiation may induce both acute and long-term effects on skin and eyes. Personal exposure is very difficult to assess accurately, as it depends on environmental, organisational and individual factors. The ongoing climate change interacting with stratospheric ozone dynamics may affect occupational exposure to solar radiation. In addition, tropospheric levels of environmental pollutants interacting with solar radiation may be altered by climate dynamics, so introducing another variable affecting the overall exposure to solar radiation. Given the uncertainties regarding the direction of changes in exposure to solar radiation due to climate change, compliance of outdoor workers with protective measures and a proper health surveillance are crucial. At the same time, education and training, along with the promotion of healthier lifestyles, are of paramount importance.

Global food security under climate change

PubMed Central

Schmidhuber, Josef; Tubiello, Francesco N.

2007-01-01

This article reviews the potential impacts of climate change on food security. It is found that of the four main elements of food security, i.e., availability, stability, utilization, and access, only the first is routinely addressed in simulation studies. To this end, published results indicate that the impacts of climate change are significant, however, with a wide projected range (between 5 million and 170 million additional people at risk of hunger by 2080) strongly depending on assumed socio-economic development. The likely impacts of climate change on the other important dimensions of food security are discussed qualitatively, indicating the potential for further negative impacts beyond those currently assessed with models. Finally, strengths and weaknesses of current assessment studies are discussed, suggesting improvements and proposing avenues for new analyses. PMID:18077404

Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2009-12-01

In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover.

Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Milly, P.C.D.; Wetherald, R.T.; Dunne, K.A.; Delworth, T.L.

2002-01-01

Radiative effects of anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, in particular an intensification of the global water cycle with a consequent increase in flood risk. But the detection of anthropogenically forced changes in flooding is difficult because of the substantial natural variability; the dependence of streamflow trends on flow regime further complicates the issue. Here we investigate the changes in risk of great floods - that is, floods with discharges exceeding 100-year levels from basins larger than 200,000 km2 - using both streamflow measurements and numerical simulations of the anthropogenic climate change associated with greenhouse gases and direct radiative effects of sulphate aerosols. We find that the frequency of great floods increased substantially during the twentieth century. The recent emergence of a statistically significant positive trend in risk of great floods is consistent with results from the climate model, and the model suggests that the trend will continue.

The threat of climate change to freshwater pearl mussel populations.

PubMed

Hastie, Lee C; Cosgrove, Peter J; Ellis, Noranne; Gaywood, Martin J

2003-02-01

Changes in climate are occurring around the world and the effects on ecosystems will vary, depending on the extent and nature of these changes. In northern Europe, experts predict that annual rainfall will increase significantly, along with dramatic storm events and flooding in the next 50-100 years. Scotland is a stronghold of the endangered freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.), and a number of populations may be threatened. For example, large floods have been shown to adversely affect mussels, and although these stochastic events were historically rare, they may now be occurring more often as a result of climate change. Populations may also be affected by a number of other factors, including predicted changes in temperature, sea level, habitat availability, host fish stocks and human activity. In this paper, we explain how climate change may impact M. margaritifera and discuss the general implications for the conservation management of this species.

Too hot to die? The effects of vegetation shading on past, present, and future activity budgets of two diurnal skinks from arid Australia.

PubMed

Grimm-Seyfarth, Annegret; Mihoub, Jean-Baptiste; Henle, Klaus

2017-09-01

Behavioral thermoregulation is an important mechanism allowing ectotherms to respond to thermal variations. Its efficiency might become imperative for securing activity budgets under future climate change. For diurnal lizards, thermal microhabitat variability appears to be of high importance, especially in hot deserts where vegetation is highly scattered and sensitive to climatic fluctuations. We investigated the effects of a shading gradient from vegetation on body temperatures and activity timing for two diurnal, terrestrial desert lizards, Ctenotus regius, and Morethia boulengeri , and analyzed their changes under past, present, and future climatic conditions. Both species' body temperatures and activity timing strongly depended on the shading gradient provided by vegetation heterogeneity. At high temperatures, shaded locations provided cooling temperatures and increased diurnal activity. Conversely, bushes also buffered cold temperature by saving heat. According to future climate change scenarios, cooler microhabitats might become beneficial to warm-adapted species, such as C. regius, by increasing the duration of daily activity. Contrarily, warmer microhabitats might become unsuitable for less warm-adapted species such as M. boulengeri for which midsummers might result in a complete restriction of activity irrespective of vegetation. However, total annual activity would still increase provided that individuals would be able to shift their seasonal timing towards spring and autumn. Overall, we highlight the critical importance of thermoregulatory behavior to buffer temperatures and its dependence on vegetation heterogeneity. Whereas studies often neglect ecological processes when anticipating species' responses to future climate change the strongest impact of a changing climate on terrestrial ectotherms in hot deserts is likely to be the loss of shaded microhabitats rather than the rise in temperature itself. We argue that conservation strategies aiming at addressing future climate changes should focus more on the cascading effects of vegetation rather than on shifts of species distributions predicted solely by climatic envelopes.

Climate change-contaminant interactions in marine food webs: Toward a conceptual framework.

PubMed

Alava, Juan José; Cheung, William W L; Ross, Peter S; Sumaila, U Rashid

2017-10-01

Climate change is reshaping the way in which contaminants move through the global environment, in large part by changing the chemistry of the oceans and affecting the physiology, health, and feeding ecology of marine biota. Climate change-associated impacts on structure and function of marine food webs, with consequent changes in contaminant transport, fate, and effects, are likely to have significant repercussions to those human populations that rely on fisheries resources for food, recreation, or culture. Published studies on climate change-contaminant interactions with a focus on food web bioaccumulation were systematically reviewed to explore how climate change and ocean acidification may impact contaminant levels in marine food webs. We propose here a conceptual framework to illustrate the impacts of climate change on contaminant accumulation in marine food webs, as well as the downstream consequences for ecosystem goods and services. The potential impacts on social and economic security for coastal communities that depend on fisheries for food are discussed. Climate change-contaminant interactions may alter the bioaccumulation of two priority contaminant classes: the fat-soluble persistent organic pollutants (POPs), such as polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), as well as the protein-binding methylmercury (MeHg). These interactions include phenomena deemed to be either climate change dominant (i.e., climate change leads to an increase in contaminant exposure) or contaminant dominant (i.e., contamination leads to an increase in climate change susceptibility). We illustrate the pathways of climate change-contaminant interactions using case studies in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The important role of ecological and food web modeling to inform decision-making in managing ecological and human health risks of chemical pollutants contamination under climate change is also highlighted. Finally, we identify the need to develop integrated policies that manage the ecological and socioeconomic risk of greenhouse gases and marine pollutants. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment of production risks for winter wheat in different German regions under climate change conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kersebaum, K. C.; Gandorfer, M.; Wegehenkel, M.

2012-04-01

The study shows climate change impacts on wheat production in selected regions across Germany. To estimate yield and economic effects the agro-ecosystem model HERMES was used. The model performed runs using 2 different releases of the model WETTREG providing statistically downscaled climate change scenarios for the weather station network of the German Weather Service. Simulations were done using intersected GIS information on soil types and land use identifying the most relevant sites for wheat production. The production risks for wheat yields at the middle of this century were compared to a reference of the present climate. The irrigation demand was determined by the model using an automatic irrigation mode. Production risks with and without irrigation were assessed and the economic feasibility to reduce production risks by irrigation was evaluated. Costs and benefits were compared. Additionally, environmental effects, e.g. groundwater recharge and nitrogen emissions were assessed for irrigated and rain fed systems. Results show that positive and negative effects of climate change occur within most regions depending on the site conditions. Water holding capacity and groundwater distance were the most important factors which determined the vulnerability of sites. Under climate change condition in the middle of the next century we can expect especially at sites with low water holding capacity decreasing average gross margins, higher production risks and a reduced nitrogen use efficiency under rainfed conditions. Irrigation seems to be profitable and risk reducing at those sites, provided that water for irrigation is available. Additionally, the use of irrigation can also increase nitrogen use efficiency which reduced emissions by leaching. Despite the site conditions results depend strongly on the used regional climate scenario and the model approach to consider the effect of elevated CO2 in the atmosphere.

Resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change

Treesearch

M.Torre Jorgenson; Vladimir Romanovsky; Jennifer Harden; Yuri Shur; Jonathan O' Donnell; Edward A.G. Schuur; Mikhail Kanevskiy; Sergei. Marchenko

2010-01-01

The resilience and vulnerability of permafrost to climate change depends on complex interactions among topography, water, soil, vegetation, and snow, which allow permafrost to persist at mean annual air temperatures (MAATs) as high as +2 °C and degrade at MAATs as low as -20°C. To assess these interactions, we compiled existing data and tested effects of varying...

Population exposure to heat-related extremes: Demographic change vs climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, B.; O'Neill, B. C.; Tebaldi, C.; Oleson, K. W.

2014-12-01

Extreme heat events are projected to increase in frequency and intensity in the coming decades [1]. The physical effects of extreme heat on human populations are well-documented, and anticipating changes in future exposure to extreme heat is a key component of adequate planning/mitigation [2, 3]. Exposure to extreme heat depends not only on changing climate, but also on changes in the size and spatial distribution of the human population. Here we focus on systematically quantifying exposure to extreme heat as a function of both climate and population change. We compare exposure outcomes across multiple global climate and spatial population scenarios, and characterize the relative contributions of each to population exposure to extreme heat. We consider a 2 x 2 matrix of climate and population output, using projections of heat extremes corresponding to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from the NCAR community land model, and spatial population projections for SSP 3 and SSP 5 from the NCAR spatial population downscaling model. Our primary comparison is across RCPs - exposure outcomes from RCP 4.5 versus RCP 8.5 - paying particular attention to how variation depends on the choice of SSP in terms of aggregate global and regional exposure, as well as the spatial distribution of exposure. We assess how aggregate exposure changes based on the choice of SSP, and which driver is more important, population or climate change (i.e. does that outcome vary more as a result of RCP or SSP). We further decompose the population component to analyze the contributions of total population change, migration, and changes in local spatial structure. Preliminary results from a similar study of the US suggests a four-to-six fold increase in total exposure by the latter half of the 21st century. Changes in population are as important as changes in climate in driving this outcome, and there is regional variation in the relative importance of each. Aggregate population growth, as well as redistribution of the population across larger US regions, strongly affects outcomes while smaller-scale spatial patterns of population change have smaller effects. [1] Collins, M. et al. (2013) Contribution of WG I to the 5th AR of the IPCC[2] Romero-Lankao, P. et al (2014) Contribution of WG II to the 5th AR of the IPCC[3] Walsh, J. et al. (2014) The 3rd National Climate Assessment

Ocean currents modify the coupling between climate change and biogeographical shifts.

PubMed

García Molinos, J; Burrows, M T; Poloczanska, E S

2017-05-02

Biogeographical shifts are a ubiquitous global response to climate change. However, observed shifts across taxa and geographical locations are highly variable and only partially attributable to climatic conditions. Such variable outcomes result from the interaction between local climatic changes and other abiotic and biotic factors operating across species ranges. Among them, external directional forces such as ocean and air currents influence the dispersal of nearly all marine and many terrestrial organisms. Here, using a global meta-dataset of observed range shifts of marine species, we show that incorporating directional agreement between flow and climate significantly increases the proportion of explained variance. We propose a simple metric that measures the degrees of directional agreement of ocean (or air) currents with thermal gradients and considers the effects of directional forces in predictions of climate-driven range shifts. Ocean flows are found to both facilitate and hinder shifts depending on their directional agreement with spatial gradients of temperature. Further, effects are shaped by the locations of shifts in the range (trailing, leading or centroid) and taxonomic identity of species. These results support the global effects of climatic changes on distribution shifts and stress the importance of framing climate expectations in reference to other non-climatic interacting factors.

Regional-Scale Forcing and Feedbacks from Alternative Scenarios of Global-Scale Land Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Chini, L. P.; Collins, W.; Janetos, A. C.; Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Thomson, A. M.; Torn, M. S.

2011-12-01

Future patterns of land use change depend critically on the degree to which terrestrial carbon management strategies, such as biological carbon sequestration and biofuels, are utilized in order to mitigate global climate change. Furthermore, land use change associated with terrestrial carbon management induces biogeophysical changes to surface energy budgets that perturb climate at regional and possibly global scales, activating different feedback processes depending on the nature and location of the land use change. As a first step in a broader effort to create an integrated earth system model, we examine two scenarios of future anthropogenic activity generated by the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) within the full-coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM). Each scenario stabilizes radiative forcing from greenhouse gases and aerosols at 4.5 W/m^2. In the first, stabilization is achieved through a universal carbon tax that values terrestrial carbon equally with fossil carbon, leading to modest afforestation globally and low biofuel utilization. In the second scenario, stabilization is achieved with a tax on fossil fuel and industrial carbon alone. In this case, biofuel utilization increases dramatically and crop area expands to claim approximately 50% of forest cover globally. By design, these scenarios exhibit identical climate forcing from atmospheric constituents. Thus, differences among them can be attributed to the biogeophysical effects of land use change. In addition, we utilize offline radiative transfer and offline land model simulations to identify forcing and feedback mechanisms operating in different regions. We find that boreal deforestation has a strong climatic signature due to significant albedo change coupled with a regional-scale water vapor feedback. Tropical deforestation, on the other hand, has more subtle effects on climate. Globally, the two scenarios yield warming trends over the 21st century that differ by 0.5 degrees Celsius. This work demonstrates the importance of land use in shaping future patterns of climate change, both globally and regionally.

Evaluating the responses of forest ecosystems to climate change and CO2 using dynamic global vegetation models.

PubMed

Song, Xiang; Zeng, Xiaodong

2017-02-01

The climate has important influences on the distribution and structure of forest ecosystems, which may lead to vital feedback to climate change. However, much of the existing work focuses on the changes in carbon fluxes or water cycles due to climate change and/or atmospheric CO 2 , and few studies have considered how and to what extent climate change and CO 2 influence the ecosystem structure (e.g., fractional coverage change) and the changes in the responses of ecosystems with different characteristics. In this work, two dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs): IAP-DGVM coupled with CLM3 and CLM4-CNDV, were used to investigate the response of the forest ecosystem structure to changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) and CO 2 concentration. In the temperature sensitivity tests, warming reduced the global area-averaged ecosystem gross primary production in the two models, which decreased global forest area. Furthermore, the changes in tree fractional coverage (Δ F tree ; %) from the two models were sensitive to the regional temperature and ecosystem structure, i.e., the mean annual temperature (MAT; °C) largely determined whether Δ F tree was positive or negative, while the tree fractional coverage ( F tree ; %) played a decisive role in the amplitude of Δ F tree around the globe, and the dependence was more remarkable in IAP-DGVM. In cases with precipitation change, F tree had a uniformly positive relationship with precipitation, especially in the transition zones of forests (30% <  F tree  < 60%) for IAP-DGVM and in semiarid and arid regions for CLM4-CNDV. Moreover, Δ F tree had a stronger dependence on F tree than on the mean annual precipitation (MAP; mm/year). It was also demonstrated that both models captured the fertilization effects of the CO 2 concentration.

State-dependent climate sensitivity in past warm climates and its implications for future climate projections

PubMed Central

Caballero, Rodrigo; Huber, Matthew

2013-01-01

Projections of future climate depend critically on refined estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent progress in temperature proxies dramatically increases the magnitude of warming reconstructed from early Paleogene greenhouse climates and demands a close examination of the forcing and feedback mechanisms that maintained this warmth and the broad dynamic range that these paleoclimate records attest to. Here, we show that several complementary resolutions to these questions are possible in the context of model simulations using modern and early Paleogene configurations. We find that (i) changes in boundary conditions representative of slow “Earth system” feedbacks play an important role in maintaining elevated early Paleogene temperatures, (ii) radiative forcing by carbon dioxide deviates significantly from pure logarithmic behavior at concentrations relevant for simulation of the early Paleogene, and (iii) fast or “Charney” climate sensitivity in this model increases sharply as the climate warms. Thus, increased forcing and increased slow and fast sensitivity can all play a substantial role in maintaining early Paleogene warmth. This poses an equifinality problem: The same climate can be maintained by a different mix of these ingredients; however, at present, the mix cannot be constrained directly from climate proxy data. The implications of strongly state-dependent fast sensitivity reach far beyond the early Paleogene. The study of past warm climates may not narrow uncertainty in future climate projections in coming centuries because fast climate sensitivity may itself be state-dependent, but proxies and models are both consistent with significant increases in fast sensitivity with increasing temperature. PMID:23918397

Scale-dependent climatic drivers of human epidemics in ancient China.

PubMed

Tian, Huidong; Yan, Chuan; Xu, Lei; Büntgen, Ulf; Stenseth, Nils C; Zhang, Zhibin

2017-12-05

A wide range of climate change-induced effects have been implicated in the prevalence of infectious diseases. Disentangling causes and consequences, however, remains particularly challenging at historical time scales, for which the quality and quantity of most of the available natural proxy archives and written documentary sources often decline. Here, we reconstruct the spatiotemporal occurrence patterns of human epidemics for large parts of China and most of the last two millennia. Cold and dry climate conditions indirectly increased the prevalence of epidemics through the influences of locusts and famines. Our results further reveal that low-frequency, long-term temperature trends mainly contributed to negative associations with epidemics, while positive associations of epidemics with droughts, floods, locusts, and famines mainly coincided with both higher and lower frequency temperature variations. Nevertheless, unstable relationships between human epidemics and temperature changes were observed on relatively smaller time scales. Our study suggests that an intertwined, direct, and indirect array of biological, ecological, and societal responses to different aspects of past climatic changes strongly depended on the frequency domain and study period chosen.

Land Use Compounds Habitat Losses under Projected Climate Change in a Threatened California Ecosystem

PubMed Central

Riordan, Erin Coulter; Rundel, Philip W.

2014-01-01

Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21st century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS), a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century) in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast). Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change. We emphasize the importance of addressing both drivers in conservation and resource management planning. PMID:24466116

Water resources under future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development: A case study for Yakima River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.

2013-12-01

In recent years, biofuel has become an important renewable energy source with a potential to help mitigate climate change. However, agriculture productivity and its potential use for sustainable production of biofuel are strongly dependent on climate and water conditions that may change in response to future changes in climate and/or socio-economic conditions. For instant in 2012, the US has experienced the most severe drought that results in a 12% decrease in corn production - the main feedstock used for biofuel in US - indicating the vulnerability of biofuel development and policies to change in climate and associated extreme weather conditions. To understand this interrelationship and the combined effects of increased biofuel production and climate change on regional and local water resources, we have applied a SWAT watershed model which integrates future scenarios of climate change and biofuel development and simulates the associated impacts on watershed hydrology, water quality, soil erosion, and agriculture productivity. The study is applied to the Yakima River basin (YRB), which has higher biomass resources in Washington State and represents a region where forestry and agriculture intersect with considerable water shortage as well as spatial variations in annual precipitation. Unlike earlier studies, which commonly define biofuel and climate change scenarios independently, in this study the decision on alternative biofuel feedstock mixes and associated change in land use and management take into account the anticipated climate change. The resulted spatial and temporal distributions of water budget, nutrient loads, and sediment erosion is analyzed to evaluate the effectiveness of biofuel policies under constraints of climate change and water resources in the region.

Tracking lags in historical plant species' shifts in relation to regional climate change.

PubMed

Ash, Jeremy D; Givnish, Thomas J; Waller, Donald M

2017-03-01

Can species shift their distributions fast enough to track changes in climate? We used abundance data from the 1950s and the 2000s in Wisconsin to measure shifts in the distribution and abundance of 78 forest-understory plant species over the last half-century and compare these shifts to changes in climate. We estimated temporal shifts in the geographic distribution of each species using vectors to connect abundance-weighted centroids from the 1950s and 2000s. These shifts in distribution reflect colonization, extirpation, and changes in abundance within sites, separately quantified here. We then applied climate analog analyses to compute vectors representing the climate change that each species experienced. Species shifted mostly to the northwest (mean: 49 ± 29 km) primarily reflecting processes of colonization and changes in local abundance. Analog climates for these species shifted even further to the northwest, however, exceeding species' shifts by an average of 90 ± 40 km. Most species thus failed to match recent rates of climate change. These lags decline in species that have colonized more sites and those with broader site occupancy, larger seed mass, and higher habitat fidelity. Thus, species' traits appear to affect their responses to climate change, but relationships are weak. As climate change accelerates, these lags will likely increase, potentially threatening the persistence of species lacking the capacity to disperse to new sites or locally adapt. However, species with greater lags have not yet declined more in abundance. The extent of these threats will likely depend on how other drivers of ecological change and interactions among species affect their responses to climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

PubMed

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-04-29

Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change.

Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

PubMed Central

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-01-01

Background Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. Methodology/Principal Findings We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070–2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Conclusions/Significance Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change. PMID:20454451

Pre-service teacher professional development on climate change: Assessment of workshop success and influence of prior knowledge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veron, D. E.; Ad-Marbach, G.; Fox-Lykens, R.; Ozbay, G.; Sezen-Barrie, A.; Wolfson, J.

2017-12-01

As states move to adopt the next generation science standards, in-service teachers are being provided with professional development that introduces climate change content and best practices for teaching climate change in the classroom. However, research has shown that it is challenging to bring this information into the higher education curriculum in education courses for pre-service teachers due to curricular and programming constraints. Over two years, the Maryland and Delaware Climate Change Assessment and Research (MADE-CLEAR) project explored a professional development approach for pre-service teachers which employed paired workshops that resulted in participant-developed lesson plans based on climate change content. The workshops were designed to provide pre-service teachers with climate change content related to the carbon cycle and to model a variety of techniques and activities for presenting this information in the classroom. Lesson plans were developed between the first and second workshop, presented at the second workshop and discussed with peers and in-service teachers, and then revised in response to feedback from the second workshop. Participant climate change content knowledge was assessed before the first workshop, and after the final revision of the lesson plan was submitted to the MADE-CLEAR team. Climate content knowledge was also assessed using the same survey for additional pre-service teacher groups who did not participate in the professional development. Results show that while the paired workshop approach increased climate content knowledge, the amount of improvement varied depending on the participants' prior knowledge in climate change content. In addition, some alternate conceptions of climate change were not altered by participant involvement in the professional development approach. Revised lesson plans showed understanding of underlying climate change impacts and demonstrated awareness of appropriate techniques for introducing this complex topic. These findings will be useful to those planning pre-service teacher professional development on climate change in the future.

Impacts and responses to environmental change in coastal livelihoods of south-west Bangladesh.

PubMed

Hossain, Mostafa A R; Ahmed, Munir; Ojea, Elena; Fernandes, Jose A

2018-05-12

Aquatic ecosystems are of global importance for maintaining high levels of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and for the number of livelihoods dependent on them. In Bangladesh, coastal and delta communities rely on these systems for a livelihood, and the sustainability of the productivity is seriously threatened by both climate change and unsustainable management. These multiple drivers of change shape the livelihood dependence and adaptation responses, where a better understanding is needed to achieve sustainable management in these systems, while maintaining and improving dependent livelihoods. This need has been addressed in this study in the region of Satkhira, in the southwest coast of Bangladesh, where livelihoods are highly dependent on aquatic systems for food supply and income. Traditional wild fish harvest in the rivers and aquaculture systems, including ghers, ponds, and crab points have been changing in terms of the uses and intensity of management, and suffering from climate change impacts as well. By means of six focus groups with 50 participants total, and validated by expert consultations, we conduct an analysis to understand the main perceived impacts from climate and human activities; and the adaptation responses from the aquatic system livelihoods. We find that biodiversity has decreased drastically, while farmed species have increased and shrimp gher farming turned more intensive becoming the main source of income. All these changes have important implications for food supply in the region and environmental sustainability. Dramatic responses taken in the communities include exit the fisheries and migration, and more adaptive responses include species diversification, crab fattening and working more on the pond and gher infrastructure. This study evidences the results of the combination of multiple stressors in productive systems and the barriers to adaptation in aquatic ecosystem dependent communities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Synergistic effects of climate change and harvest on extinction risk of American ginseng.

PubMed

Souther, Sara; McGraw, James B

Over the next century, the conservation of biodiversity will depend not only on our ability to understand the effect of climate change, but also on our capacity to predict how other factors interact with climate change to influence species viability. We used American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.), the United States' premier wild-harvested medicinal, as a model system to ask whether the effect of harvest on extinction risk depends on changing climatic conditions. We performed stochastic projections of viability response to an increase in maximum growing-season temperature of 1°C over the next 70 years by sampling matrices from long-term demographic studies of 12 populations (representing 75 population-years of data). In simulations that included harvest and climate change, extinction risk at the median population size (N = 140) was 65%, far exceeding the additive effects of the two factors (extinction risk = 8% and 6% for harvest and climate change, respectively; quasi-extinction threshold = 20). We performed a life table response experiment (LTRE) to determine underlying causes of the effect of warming and harvest on deterministic λ (λd). Together, these factors decreased λd values primarily by reducing growth of juvenile and small adult plants to the large-adult stage, as well as decreasing stasis of the juveniles and large adults. The interaction observed in stochastic model results followed from a nonlinear increase in extinction risk as the combined impact of harvest and warming consistently reduced λ values below the demographic tipping point of λ = 1. While further research is needed to create specific recommendations, these findings indicate that ginseng harvest regulations should be revised to account for changing climate. Given the possibility of nonlinear response like that reported here, pre-emptive adaptation of management strategies may increase efficacy of biodiversity conservation by allowing behavior modification prior to precipitous population decline.

Modeling climate change, urbanization, and fire effects on Pinus palustris ecosystems of the southeastern U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Costanza, Jennifer; Terando, Adam J.; McKerrow, Alexa; Collazo, Jaime A.

2015-01-01

Managing ecosystems for resilience and sustainability requires understanding how they will respond to future anthropogenic drivers such as climate change and urbanization. In fire-dependent ecosystems, predicting this response requires a focus on how these drivers will impact fire regimes. Here, we use scenarios of climate change, urbanization and management to simulate the future dynamics of the critically endangered and fire-dependent longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) ecosystem. We investigated how climate change and urbanization will affect the ecosystem, and whether the two conservation goals of a 135% increase in total longleaf area and a doubling of fire-maintained open-canopy habitat can be achieved in the face of these drivers. Our results show that while climatic warming had little effect on the wildfire regime, and thus on longleaf pine dynamics, urban growth led to an 8% reduction in annual wildfire area. The management scenarios we tested increase the ecosystem's total extent by up to 62% and result in expansion of open-canopy longleaf by as much as 216%, meeting one of the two conservation goals for the ecosystem. We find that both conservation goals for this ecosystem, which is climate-resilient but vulnerable to urbanization, are only attainable if a greater focus is placed on restoration of non-longleaf areas as opposed to maintaining existing longleaf stands. Our approach demonstrates the importance of accounting for multiple relevant anthropogenic threats in an ecosystem-specific context in order to facilitate more effective management actions.

Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

PubMed Central

Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

2016-01-01

Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

Stakeholders’ perspectives towards effective climate change adaptation on the Mongolian livestock sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batbaatar, A.; Apichayakul, P.; Tantanee, S.

2018-03-01

Climate change is one of the greatest threats that world is facing today, and having significant deleterious effects on natural and human systems. Recent climate-induced extreme events and their impacts demand timely adaptation actions to the changing odds of their occurrence. The great phenomenon is already being felt in the Mongolian plateau, especially on the livestock sector. The sector provides the main income and livelihood for one-third of the population of about three million people. A high number of livestock is lost due to a unique phenomenon is known as a “dzud”. This paper examines the key stakeholders’ perspectives in the implementation of climate change adaptation and identifies its barriers, with a focus on the livestock sector. In order to meet the objectives, this research used a semi-structured interview with organizations related to the livestock sector and climate change. The extent of stakeholders’ perspectives might be depending on the way they share information, stakeholder engagement, and their experiences with extreme events, as well as their location and level in government. The research findings will indicate an understanding of climate change perspectives, adaptation, and level of capacity of organizations, which can be used as a guideline for organizations to develop climate change adaptation policies related to the livestock sector in Mongolia.

Where do forests influence rainfall?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang-Erlandsson, Lan; van der Ent, Ruud; Fetzer, Ingo; Keys, Patrick; Savenije, Hubert; Gordon, Line

2017-04-01

Forests play a major role in hydrology. Not only by immediate control of soil moisture and streamflow, but also by regulating climate through evaporation (i.e., transpiration, interception, and soil evaporation). The process of evaporation travelling through the atmosphere and returning as precipitation on land is known as moisture recycling. Whether evaporation is recycled depends on wind direction and geography. Moisture recycling and forest change studies have primarily focused on either one region (e.g. the Amazon), or one biome type (e.g. tropical humid forests). We will advance this via a systematic global inter-comparison of forest change impacts on precipitation depending on both biome type and geographic location. The rainfall effects are studied for three contemporary forest changes: afforestation, deforestation, and replacement of mature forest by forest plantations. Furthermore, as there are indications in the literature that moisture recycling in some places intensifies during dry years, we will also compare the rainfall impacts of forest change between wet and dry years. We model forest change effects on evaporation using the global hydrological model STEAM and trace precipitation changes using the atmospheric moisture tracking scheme WAM-2layers. This research elucidates the role of geographical location of forest change driven modifications on rainfall as a function of the type of forest change and climatic conditions. These knowledge gains are important at a time of both rapid forest and climate change. Our conclusions nuance our understanding of how forests regulate climate and pinpoint hotspot regions for forest-rainfall coupling.

Experimental and observational studies find contrasting responses of soil nutrients to climate change

PubMed Central

Yuan, ZY; Jiao, F; Shi, XR; Sardans, Jordi; Maestre, Fernando T; Delgado-Baquerizo, Manuel; Reich, Peter B; Peñuelas, Josep

2017-01-01

Manipulative experiments and observations along environmental gradients, the two most common approaches to evaluate the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling, are generally assumed to produce similar results, but this assumption has rarely been tested. We did so by conducting a meta-analysis and found that soil nutrients responded differentially to drivers of climate change depending on the approach considered. Soil carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations generally decreased with water addition in manipulative experiments but increased with annual precipitation along environmental gradients. Different patterns were also observed between warming experiments and temperature gradients. Our findings provide evidence of inconsistent results and suggest that manipulative experiments may be better predictors of the causal impacts of short-term (months to years) climate change on soil nutrients but environmental gradients may provide better information for long-term correlations (centuries to millennia) between these nutrients and climatic features. Ecosystem models should consequently incorporate both experimental and observational data to properly assess the impacts of climate change on nutrient cycling. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.23255.001 PMID:28570219

The rise and fall of infectious disease in a warmer world

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lafferty, Kevin D.; Mordecai, Erin A.

2016-01-01

Now-outdated estimates proposed that climate change should have increased the number of people at risk of malaria, yet malaria and several other infectious diseases have declined. Although some diseases have increased as the climate has warmed, evidence for widespread climate-driven disease expansion has not materialized, despite increased research attention. Biological responses to warming depend on the non-linear relationships between physiological performance and temperature, called the thermal response curve. This leads performance to rise and fall with temperature. Under climate change, host species and their associated parasites face extinction if they cannot either thermoregulate or adapt by shifting phenology or geographic range. Climate change might also affect disease transmission through increases or decreases in host susceptibility and infective stage (and vector) production, longevity, and pathology. Many other factors drive disease transmission, especially economics, and some change in time along with temperature, making it hard to distinguish whether temperature drives disease or just correlates with disease drivers. Although it is difficult to predict how climate change will affect infectious disease, an ecological approach can help meet the challenge.

Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

PubMed

Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

2015-06-16

Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

2010-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

Weighing the relative potential impacts of climate change and land-use change on an endangered bird.

PubMed

Bancroft, Betsy A; Lawler, Joshua J; Schumaker, Nathan H

2016-07-01

Climate change and land-use change are projected to be the two greatest drivers of biodiversity loss over the coming century. Land-use change has resulted in extensive habitat loss for many species. Likewise, climate change has affected many species resulting in range shifts, changes in phenology, and altered interactions. We used a spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore the effects of land-use change and climate change on a population of the endangered Red-cockaded Woodpecker (RCW; Picoides borealis). We modeled the effects of land-use change using multiple scenarios representing different spatial arrangements of new training areas for troops across Fort Benning. We used projected climate-driven changes in habitat and changes in reproductive output to explore the potential effects of climate change. We summarized potential changes in habitat based on the output of the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS, run for multiple climate change scenarios through the year 2100. We projected potential changes in reproduction based on an empirical relationship between spring precipitation and the mean number of successful fledglings produced per nest attempt. As modeled in our study, climate change had virtually no effect on the RCW population. Conversely, simulated effects of land-use change resulted in the loss of up to 28 breeding pairs by 2100. However, the simulated impacts of development depended on where the development occurred and could be completely avoided if the new training areas were placed in poor-quality habitat. Our results demonstrate the flexibility inherent in many systems that allows seemingly incompatible human land uses, such as development, and conservation actions to exist side by side.

Impacts of Future Climate Change on California Perennial Crop Yields: Model Projections with Climate and Crop Uncertainties

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lobell, D; Field, C; Cahill, K

2006-01-10

Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. Improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies in the many regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiplemore » climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO{sub 2} fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to >40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions are identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards ({approx}30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted.« less

Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish.

PubMed

Rolls, Robert J; Hayden, Brian; Kahilainen, Kimmo K

2017-06-01

Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context-dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non-native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.

Does the stress tolerance of mixed grassland communities change in a future climate? A test with heavy metal stress (zinc pollution).

PubMed

Van den Berge, Joke; Naudts, Kim; Janssens, Ivan A; Ceulemans, Reinhart; Nijs, Ivan

2011-12-01

Will species that are sensitive/tolerant to Zn pollution still have the same sensitivity/tolerance in a future climate? To answer this question we analysed the response of constructed grassland communities to five levels of zinc (Zn) supply, ranging from 0 to 354 mg Zn kg(-1) dry soil, under a current climate and a future climate (elevated CO2 and warming). Zn concentrations increased in roots and shoots with Zn addition but this increase did not differ between climates. Light-saturated net CO2 assimilation rate (A(sat)) of the species, on the other hand, responded differently to Zn addition depending on climate. Still, current and future climate communities have comparable biomass responses to Zn, i.e., no change in root biomass and a 13% decrease of above-ground biomass. Provided that the different response of A(sat) in a future climate will not compromise productivity and survival on the long term, sensitivity is not altered by climate change. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2017-01-01

ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index

PubMed Central

Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; dos Santos, Rhavena Barbosa; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied—social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change. PMID:29444086

Mapping human vulnerability to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon: The construction of a municipal vulnerability index.

PubMed

Menezes, Júlia Alves; Confalonieri, Ulisses; Madureira, Ana Paula; Duval, Isabela de Brito; Santos, Rhavena Barbosa Dos; Margonari, Carina

2018-01-01

Vulnerability, understood as the propensity to be adversely affected, has attained importance in the context of climate change by helping to understand what makes populations and territories predisposed to its impacts. Conditions of vulnerability may vary depending on the characteristics of each territory studied-social, environmental, infrastructural, public policies, among others. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate what makes the municipalities of the state of Amazonas, Brazil, vulnerable to climate change in the context of the largest tropical forest in the world, and which regions of the State are the most susceptible. A Municipal Vulnerability Index was developed, which was used to associate current socio-environmental characteristics of municipalities with climate change scenarios in order to identify those that may be most affected by climate change. The results showed that poor adaptive capacity and poverty had the most influence on current vulnerability of the municipalities of Amazonas with the most vulnerable areas being the southern, northern, and eastern regions of the state. When current vulnerability was related to future climate change projections, the most vulnerable areas were the northern, northeastern, extreme southern, and southwestern regions. From a socio-environmental and climatic point of view, these regions should be a priority for public policy efforts to reduce their vulnerability and prepare them to cope with the adverse aspects of climate change.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species' climate-change vulnerability.

PubMed

Wade, Alisa A; Hand, Brian K; Kovach, Ryan P; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane C; Muhlfeld, Clint C

2017-02-01

Climate-change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species' vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. We took a more comprehensive approach that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and capacity to adapt to climate change. We applied our approach to anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and nonanadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), threatened salmonids within the Columbia River Basin (U.S.A.). We quantified exposure on the basis of scenarios of future stream temperature and flow, and we represented sensitivity and capacity to adapt to climate change with metrics of habitat quality, demographic condition, and genetic diversity. Both species were found to be highly vulnerable to climate change at low elevations and in their southernmost habitats. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the 2 species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multispecies conservation. Based on our results, we suggest that CCVAs be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework and be used to refine hypotheses, guide research, and compare plausible scenarios of species' vulnerability to climate change. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Possible climates on terrestrial exoplanets.

PubMed

Forget, F; Leconte, J

2014-04-28

What kind of environment may exist on terrestrial planets around other stars? In spite of the lack of direct observations, it may not be premature to speculate on exoplanetary climates, for instance, to optimize future telescopic observations or to assess the probability of habitable worlds. To begin with, climate primarily depends on (i) the atmospheric composition and the volatile inventory; (ii) the incident stellar flux; and (iii) the tidal evolution of the planetary spin, which can notably lock a planet with a permanent night side. The atmospheric composition and mass depends on complex processes, which are difficult to model: origins of volatiles, atmospheric escape, geochemistry, photochemistry, etc. We discuss physical constraints, which can help us to speculate on the possible type of atmosphere, depending on the planet size, its final distance for its star and the star type. Assuming that the atmosphere is known, the possible climates can be explored using global climate models analogous to the ones developed to simulate the Earth as well as the other telluric atmospheres in the solar system. Our experience with Mars, Titan and Venus suggests that realistic climate simulators can be developed by combining components, such as a 'dynamical core', a radiative transfer solver, a parametrization of subgrid-scale turbulence and convection, a thermal ground model and a volatile phase change code. On this basis, we can aspire to build reliable climate predictors for exoplanets. However, whatever the accuracy of the models, predicting the actual climate regime on a specific planet will remain challenging because climate systems are affected by strong positive feedbacks. They can drive planets with very similar forcing and volatile inventory to completely different states. For instance, the coupling among temperature, volatile phase changes and radiative properties results in instabilities, such as runaway glaciations and runaway greenhouse effect.

Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Midgley, Guy F.; Bond, William J.

2015-09-01

Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.

Climate change impacts on coral reefs: synergies with local effects, possibilities for acclimation, and management implications.

PubMed

Ateweberhan, Mebrahtu; Feary, David A; Keshavmurthy, Shashank; Chen, Allen; Schleyer, Michael H; Sheppard, Charles R C

2013-09-30

Most reviews concerning the impact of climate change on coral reefs discuss independent effects of warming or ocean acidification. However, the interactions between these, and between these and direct local stressors are less well addressed. This review underlines that coral bleaching, acidification, and diseases are expected to interact synergistically, and will negatively influence survival, growth, reproduction, larval development, settlement, and post-settlement development of corals. Interactions with local stress factors such as pollution, sedimentation, and overfishing are further expected to compound effects of climate change. Reduced coral cover and species composition following coral bleaching events affect coral reef fish community structure, with variable outcomes depending on their habitat dependence and trophic specialisation. Ocean acidification itself impacts fish mainly indirectly through disruption of predation- and habitat-associated behavior changes. Zooxanthellate octocorals on reefs are often overlooked but are substantial occupiers of space; these also are highly susceptible to bleaching but because they tend to be more heterotrophic, climate change impacts mainly manifest in terms of changes in species composition and population structure. Non-calcifying macroalgae are expected to respond positively to ocean acidification and promote microbe-induced coral mortality via the release of dissolved compounds, thus intensifying phase-shifts from coral to macroalgal domination. Adaptation of corals to these consequences of CO2 rise through increased tolerance of corals and successful mutualistic associations between corals and zooxanthellae is likely to be insufficient to match the rate and frequency of the projected changes. Impacts are interactive and magnified, and because there is a limited capacity for corals to adapt to climate change, global targets of carbon emission reductions are insufficient for coral reefs, so lower targets should be pursued. Alleviation of most local stress factors such as nutrient discharges, sedimentation, and overfishing is also imperative if sufficient overall resilience of reefs to climate change is to be achieved. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Feedbacks between climate change and biosphere integrity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lade, Steven; Anderies, J. Marty; Donges, Jonathan; Steffen, Will; Rockström, Johan; Richardson, Katherine; Cornell, Sarah; Norberg, Jon; Fetzer, Ingo

2017-04-01

The terrestrial and marine biospheres sink substantial fractions of human fossil fuel emissions. How the biosphere's capacity to sink carbon depends on biodiversity and other measures of biosphere integrity is however poorly understood. Here, we (1): review assumptions from literature regarding the relationships between the carbon cycle and the terrestrial and marine biospheres; and (2) explore the consequences of these different assumptions for climate feedbacks using the stylised carbon cycle model PB-INT. We find that: terrestrial biodiversity loss could significantly dampen climate-carbon cycle feedbacks; direct biodiversity effects, if they exist, could rival temperature increases from low-emission trajectories; and the response of the marine biosphere is critical for longer term climate change. Simple, low-dimensional climate models such as PB-INT can help assess the importance of still unknown or controversial earth system processes such as biodiversity loss for climate feedbacks. This study constitutes the first detailed study of the interactions between climate change and biosphere integrity, two of the 'planetary boundaries'.

Assessment of composite index methods for agricultural vulnerability to climate change.

PubMed

Wiréhn, Lotten; Danielsson, Åsa; Neset, Tina-Simone S

2015-06-01

A common way of quantifying and communicating climate vulnerability is to calculate composite indices from indicators, visualizing these as maps. Inherent methodological uncertainties in vulnerability assessments, however, require greater attention. This study examines Swedish agricultural vulnerability to climate change, the aim being to review various indicator approaches for assessing agricultural vulnerability to climate change and to evaluate differences in climate vulnerability depending on the weighting and summarizing methods. The reviewed methods are evaluated by being tested at the municipal level. Three weighting and summarizing methods, representative of climate vulnerability indices in general, are analysed. The results indicate that 34 of 36 method combinations differ significantly from each other. We argue that representing agricultural vulnerability in a single composite index might be insufficient to guide climate adaptation. We emphasize the need for further research into how to measure and visualize agricultural vulnerability and into how to communicate uncertainties in both data and methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales.

PubMed

Devaraju, N; Bala, G; Nemani, R

2015-09-01

Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Roles of Dispersal, Fecundity, and Predation in the Population Persistence of an Oak (Quercus engelmannii) under Global Change

PubMed Central

Conlisk, Erin; Lawson, Dawn; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Regan, Helen M.

2012-01-01

A species’ response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species’ ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species - Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors – climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency – emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations. PMID:22623955

Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico Region: Interactions with Spatial Population and Land Cover Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, R. S.; Levy, M.; Baptista, S.; Adamo, S.

2010-12-01

Vulnerability to climate variability and change will depend on dynamic interactions between different aspects of climate, land-use change, and socioeconomic trends. Measurements and projections of these changes are difficult at the local scale but necessary for effective planning. New data sources and methods make it possible to assess land-use and socioeconomic changes that may affect future patterns of climate vulnerability. In this paper we report on new time series data sets that reveal trends in the spatial patterns of climate vulnerability in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico Region. Specifically, we examine spatial time series data for human population over the period 1990-2000, time series data on land use and land cover over 2000-2009, and infant mortality rates as a proxy for poverty for 2000-2008. We compare the spatial trends for these measures to the distribution of climate-related natural disaster risk hotspots (cyclones, floods, landslides, and droughts) in terms of frequency, mortality, and economic losses. We use these data to identify areas where climate vulnerability appears to be increasing and where it may be decreasing. Regions where trends and patterns are especially worrisome include coastal areas of Guatemala and Honduras.

Climate change as a migration driver from rural and urban Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nawrotzki, Raphael J.; Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.; Riosmena, Fernando

2015-11-01

Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on US-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.

Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico.

PubMed

Nawrotzki, Raphael J; Hunter, Lori M; Runfola, Daniel M; Riosmena, Fernando

2015-11-01

Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986-1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture.

Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

2013-12-01

Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such as flooding and heavy rainfall than in ';hot' events such as heatwaves, (b) perceptions of these ';wet' weather events are more strongly associated with climate-change beliefs than were extremely ';hot' weather events, and (c) personal experiences with the negative consequences of specific extreme weather events are associated with stronger climate-change beliefs. Hence, which specific weather events people interpret as evidence of climate change may depend on their personal perceptions and experiences - which may not involve the temperature increases that are commonly the focus of climate-change communications. Overall, these findings suggest that climate experts should consider focusing their public communications on extreme weather events that are relevant to their intended audience. We will discuss strategies for designing and evaluating communications about climate change and adaptation.

Is There a Temperate Bias in Our Understanding of How Climate Change Will Alter Plant-Herbivore Interactions? A Meta-analysis of Experimental Studies.

PubMed

Mundim, Fabiane M; Bruna, Emilio M

2016-09-01

Climate change can drive major shifts in community composition and interactions between resident species. However, the magnitude of these changes depends on the type of interactions and the biome in which they take place. We review the existing conceptual framework for how climate change will influence tropical plant-herbivore interactions and formalize a similar framework for the temperate zone. We then conduct the first biome-specific tests of how plant-herbivore interactions change in response to climate-driven changes in temperature, precipitation, ambient CO2, and ozone. We used quantitative meta-analysis to compare predicted and observed changes in experimental studies. Empirical studies were heavily biased toward temperate systems, so testing predicted changes in tropical plant-herbivore interactions was virtually impossible. Furthermore, most studies investigated the effects of CO2 with limited plant and herbivore species. Irrespective of location, most studies manipulated only one climate change factor despite the fact that different factors can act in synergy to alter responses of plants and herbivores. Finally, studies of belowground plant-herbivore interactions were also rare; those conducted suggest that climate change could have major effects on belowground subsystems. Our results suggest that there is a disconnection between the growing literature proposing how climate change will influence plant-herbivore interactions and the studies testing these predictions. General conclusions will also be hampered without better integration of above- and belowground systems, assessing the effects of multiple climate change factors simultaneously, and using greater diversity of species in experiments.

Phosphorus acquisition and utilisation in crop legumes under global change.

PubMed

Pang, Jiayin; Ryan, Megan H; Lambers, Hans; Siddique, Kadambot Hm

2018-05-28

Improving phosphorus (P)-use efficiency in legumes is a worldwide challenge in the face of an increasing world population, dwindling global rock phosphate reserves, the relatively high P demand of legumes and global change. This review focuses on P acquisition of crop legumes in response to climate change. We advocate further studies on: firstly, the response of carboxylate exudation, mycorrhizas and root morphology to climate change and their role in P acquisition as dependent on edaphic factors; secondly, developing intercropping systems with a combination of a legume and another crop species to enhance P acquisition; and thirdly, the impact of the interactions of the major climate change factors on P acquisition in the field. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mars Secular Obliquity Change Due to Water Ice Caps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rubincam, David P.

1998-01-01

Mars may have substantially changed its average axial tilt over geologic time due to the waxing and waning of water ice caps. Depending upon Mars' climate and internal structure, the average obliquity could have increased or decreased through climate friction by tens of degrees. A decrease could account for the apparent youthfulness of the polar layered terrain. Alternatively, Mars' average obliquity may have changed until it became "stuck" at its present value of 24.4 deg.

Assessing and comparing risk to climate changes among forested locations: implications for ecosystem services

Treesearch

Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Matthew P. Peters; Anantha M. Prasad; Sakthi Subburayalu

2014-01-01

Forests provide key ecosystem services (ES) and the extent to which the ES are realized varies spatially, with forest composition and cultural context, and in breadth, depending on the dominant tree species inhabiting an area. We address the question of how climate change may impact ES within the temperate and diverse forests of the eastern United States. We quantify...

Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

2014-08-01

Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

Forest Owners' Response to Climate Change: University Education Trumps Value Profile

PubMed Central

Persson, Erik; Hanewinkel, Marc

2016-01-01

Do forest owners’ levels of education or value profiles explain their responses to climate change? The cultural cognition thesis (CCT) has cast serious doubt on the familiar and often criticized "knowledge deficit" model, which says that laypeople are less concerned about climate change because they lack scientific knowledge. Advocates of CCT maintain that citizens with the highest degrees of scientific literacy and numeracy are not the most concerned about climate change. Rather, this is the group in which cultural polarization is greatest, and thus individuals with more limited scientific literacy and numeracy are more concerned about climate change under certain circumstances than those with higher scientific literacy and numeracy. The CCT predicts that cultural and other values will trump the positive effects of education on some forest owners' attitudes to climate change. Here, using survey data collected in 2010 from 766 private forest owners in Sweden and Germany, we provide the first evidence that perceptions of climate change risk are uncorrelated with, or sometimes positively correlated with, education level and can be explained without reference to cultural or other values. We conclude that the recent claim that advanced scientific literacy and numeracy polarizes perceptions of climate change risk is unsupported by the forest owner data. In neither of the two countries was university education found to reduce the perception of risk from climate change. Indeed in most cases university education increased the perception of risk. Even more importantly, the effect of university education was not dependent on the individuals' value profile. PMID:27223473

Projected impacts of climate change on environmental suitability for malaria transmission in West Africa.

PubMed

Yamana, Teresa K; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2013-10-01

Climate change is expected to affect the distribution of environmental suitability for malaria transmission by altering temperature and rainfall patterns; however, the local and global impacts of climate change on malaria transmission are uncertain. We assessed the effect of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa. We coupled a detailed mechanistic hydrology and entomology model with climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) to predict changes in vectorial capacity, an indication of the risk of human malaria infections, resulting from changes in the availability of mosquito breeding sites and temperature-dependent development rates. Because there is strong disagreement in climate predictions from different GCMs, we focused on the GCM projections that produced the best and worst conditions for malaria transmission in each zone of the study area. Simulation-based estimates suggest that in the desert fringes of the Sahara, vectorial capacity would increase under the worst-case scenario, but not enough to sustain transmission. In the transitional zone of the Sahel, climate change is predicted to decrease vectorial capacity. In the wetter regions to the south, our estimates suggest an increase in vectorial capacity under all scenarios. However, because malaria is already highly endemic among human populations in these regions, we expect that changes in malaria incidence would be small. Our findings highlight the importance of rainfall in shaping the impact of climate change on malaria transmission in future climates. Even under the GCM predictions most conducive to malaria transmission, we do not expect to see a significant increase in malaria prevalence in this region.

Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

PubMed

Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

2014-08-01

Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

Influence of orographic precipitation on the incision within a mountain-piedmont system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zavala, Valeria; Carretier, Sébastien; Bonnet, Stephane

2017-04-01

The geomorphological evolution of a mountain-piedmont system depends both on tectonics and climate, as well as on couplings between the mountain and its piedmont. Although the interactions between climate and tectonics are a fundamental point for understanding the landscape evolution, the erosion of a mountain range and the sediment deposition at the mountain front, or piedmont, have been poorly studied as a coupled system. Here we focus on the conditions driving an incision within such a system. Classically, it is thought that incision results from a change in climate or uplift rates. However, it is not clear which are the specific conditions that favor the occurrence of river incision in the piedmont. In particular, studies have shown that the presence of a piedmont can modify the incision patterns, and even drive autogenic incision, without any change in external forcings. This is a crucial issue in order to interpret natural incisions in terms of uplift or climatic modifications. Such a problem is further complicated by the modification of local precipitations and temperatures during uplift, because the progressive effect of climate change may superimpose to uplift. In this work we explore the hypothesis that a mountain-piedmont coupled system may develop incision in its piedmont as a result of enhanced orographic precipitations during surface uplift. We use a landscape evolution model, Cidre, in order to explore the response of a mountain-piemont system in which the mountain is continuously uplifted but in which precipitation rates depend on elevations. Thus precipitation amounts change during the mountain uplift. We test different peaks and amplitudes of the orographic precipitation pattern, maintaining the other conditions constant. Preliminary results show that elevation-dependent precipitations drive temporary but pronounced incisions of the main rivers within the piedmont, contrary to experiments without orographic precipitations.

Visualizing and communicating climate change using the ClimateWizard: decision support and education through web-based analysis and mapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girvetz, E. H.; Zganjar, C.; Raber, G. T.; Maurer, E. P.; Duffy, P.

2009-12-01

Virtually all fields of study and parts of society—from ecological science and nature conservation, to global development, multinational corporations, and government bodies—need to know how climate change has and may impact specific locations of interest. Our ability to respond to climate change depends on having convenient tools that make past and projected climate trends available to planners, managers, scientists and the general public, at scales ranging from global to local scales. Web-mapping applications provide an effective platform for communicating climate change impacts in specific geographic areas of interest to the public. Here, we present one such application, the ClimateWizard, that allows users to analyze, visualize and explore climate change maps for specific geographic areas of interest throughout the world (http://ClimateWizard.org). Built on Web 2.0 web-services (SOAP), Google Maps mash-up, and cloud computing technologies, the ClimateWizard analyzes large databases of climate information located on remote servers to create synthesized information and useful products tailored to geographic areas of interest (e.g. maps, graphs, tables, GIS layers). We demonstrate how the ClimateWizard can be used to assess projected changes to temperature and precipitation across all states in the contiguous United States and all countries of the world using statistically downscaled general circulation models from the CMIP3 dataset. We then go on to show how ClimateWizard can be used to analyze changes to other climate related variables, such as moisture stress and water production. Finally, we discuss how this tool can be adapted to develop a wide range of web-based tools that are targeted at informing specific audiences—from scientific research and natural resource management, to K-12 and higher education—about how climate change may affect different aspects of human and natural systems.

Disentangling the effects of climate, density dependence, and harvest on an iconic large herbivore's population dynamics.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Colchero, Fernando; Hersey, Kent; Gimenez, Olivier

2015-06-01

Understanding the relative effects of climate, harvest, and density dependence on population dynamics is critical for guiding sound population management, especially for ungulates in arid and semiarid environments experiencing climate change. To address these issues for bison in southern Utah, USA, we applied a Bayesian state-space model to a 72-yr time series of abundance counts. While accounting for known harvest (as well as live removal) from the population, we found that the bison population in southern Utah exhibited a strong potential to grow from low density (β0 = 0.26; Bayesian credible interval based on 95% of the highest posterior density [BCI] = 0.19-0.33), and weak but statistically significant density dependence (β1 = -0.02, BCI = -0.04 to -0.004). Early spring temperatures also had strong positive effects on population growth (Pfat1 = 0.09, BCI = 0.04-0.14), much more so than precipitation and other temperature-related variables (model weight > three times more than that for other climate variables). Although we hypothesized that harvest is the primary driving force of bison population dynamics in southern Utah, our elasticity analysis indicated that changes in early spring temperature could have a greater relative effect on equilibrium abundance than either harvest or. the strength of density dependence. Our findings highlight the utility of incorporating elasticity analyses into state-space population models, and the need to include climatic processes in wildlife management policies and planning.

Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

2006-12-01

The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Predicting Plant Diversity Patterns in Madagascar: Understanding the Effects of Climate and Land Cover Change in a Biodiversity Hotspot

PubMed Central

Brown, Kerry A.; Parks, Katherine E.; Bethell, Colin A.; Johnson, Steig E.; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar’s plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future. PMID:25856241

Predicting plant diversity patterns in Madagascar: understanding the effects of climate and land cover change in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Brown, Kerry A; Parks, Katherine E; Bethell, Colin A; Johnson, Steig E; Mulligan, Mark

2015-01-01

Climate and land cover change are driving a major reorganization of terrestrial biotic communities in tropical ecosystems. In an effort to understand how biodiversity patterns in the tropics will respond to individual and combined effects of these two drivers of environmental change, we use species distribution models (SDMs) calibrated for recent climate and land cover variables and projected to future scenarios to predict changes in diversity patterns in Madagascar. We collected occurrence records for 828 plant genera and 2186 plant species. We developed three scenarios, (i.e., climate only, land cover only and combined climate-land cover) based on recent and future climate and land cover variables. We used this modelling framework to investigate how the impacts of changes to climate and land cover influenced biodiversity across ecoregions and elevation bands. There were large-scale climate- and land cover-driven changes in plant biodiversity across Madagascar, including both losses and gains in diversity. The sharpest declines in biodiversity were projected for the eastern escarpment and high elevation ecosystems. Sharp declines in diversity were driven by the combined climate-land cover scenarios; however, there were subtle, region-specific differences in model outputs for each scenario, where certain regions experienced relatively higher species loss under climate or land cover only models. We strongly caution that predicted future gains in plant diversity will depend on the development and maintenance of dispersal pathways that connect current and future suitable habitats. The forecast for Madagascar's plant diversity in the face of future environmental change is worrying: regional diversity will continue to decrease in response to the combined effects of climate and land cover change, with habitats such as ericoid thickets and eastern lowland and sub-humid forests particularly vulnerable into the future.

Alteration of the phenology of leaf senescence and fall in winter deciduous species by climate change: effects on nutrient proficiency.

PubMed

Estiarte, Marc; Peñuelas, Josep

2015-03-01

Leaf senescence in winter deciduous species signals the transition from the active to the dormant stage. The purpose of leaf senescence is the recovery of nutrients before the leaves fall. Photoperiod and temperature are the main cues controlling leaf senescence in winter deciduous species, with water stress imposing an additional influence. Photoperiod exerts a strict control on leaf senescence at latitudes where winters are severe and temperature gains importance in the regulation as winters become less severe. On average, climatic warming will delay and drought will advance leaf senescence, but at varying degrees depending on the species. Warming and drought thus have opposite effects on the phenology of leaf senescence, and the impact of climate change will therefore depend on the relative importance of each factor in specific regions. Warming is not expected to have a strong impact on nutrient proficiency although a slower speed of leaf senescence induced by warming could facilitate a more efficient nutrient resorption. Nutrient resorption is less efficient when the leaves senesce prematurely as a consequence of water stress. The overall effects of climate change on nutrient resorption will depend on the contrasting effects of warming and drought. Changes in nutrient resorption and proficiency will impact production in the following year, at least in early spring, because the construction of new foliage relies almost exclusively on nutrients resorbed from foliage during the preceding leaf fall. Changes in the phenology of leaf senescence will thus impact carbon uptake, but also ecosystem nutrient cycling, especially if the changes are consequence of water stress. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of Changing Climate on Agricultural Variability: Implications for Smallholder Farmers in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, P.; Jain, M.; DeFries, R. S.; Galford, G. L.; Small, C.

2013-12-01

Agriculture is the largest employment sector in India, where food productivity, and thus food security, is highly dependent on seasonal rainfall and temperature. Projected increase in temperature, along with less frequent but intense rainfall events, will have a negative impact on crop productivity in India in the coming decades. These changes, along with continued ground water depletion, could have serious implications for Indian smallholder farmers, who are among some of the most vulnerable communities to climatic and economic changes. Hence baseline information on agricultural sensitivity to climate variability is important for strategies and policies that promote adaptation to climate variability. This study examines how cropping patterns in different agro-ecological zones in India respond to variations in precipitation and temperature. We specifically examine: a) which climate variables most influence crop cover for monsoon and winter crops? and b) how does the sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability vary in different agro-ecological regions with diverse socio-economic factors? We use remote sensing data (2000-01 - 2012-13) for cropping patterns (developed using MODIS satellite data), climate parameters (derived from MODIS and TRMM satellite data) and agricultural census data. We initially assessed the importance of these climate variables in two agro-ecoregions: a predominantly groundwater irrigated, cash crop region in western India, and a region in central India primarily comprised of rain-fed or surface water irrigated subsistence crops. Seasonal crop cover anomaly varied between -25% and 25% of the 13-year mean in these two regions. Predominantly climate-dependent region in central India showed high anomalies up to 200% of the 13-year crop cover mean, especially during winter season. Winter daytime mean temperature is overwhelmingly the most important climate variable for winter crops irrespective of the varied biophysical and socio-economic conditions across the study regions. Despite access to groundwater irrigation, crop cover in the western Indian study region showed substantial fluctuations during monsoon, probably due to changing planting strategies. This region is less sensitive to precipitation compared to the central Indian study region with predominantly climate-dependent irrigation from surface water. In western Indian study region a greater number of rainy days, increased intensity of rainfall, and cooler daytime and nighttime temperatures lead to increased crop cover during monsoon season, compared to in the central Indian study region where monsoon timing and amount of total rainfall are the most important factors of crop cover. Our findings indicate that different regions respond differently to climate, since socio-economic factors, such as irrigation access, market influences, demography, and policies play critical role in agricultural production. In the wake of projected precipitation and temperature changes, better access to irrigation and heat-tolerant high-yielding crop varieties will be crucial for future food production.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. PMID:25180515

Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.

PubMed

Boxall, Alistair B A; Hardy, Anthony; Beulke, Sabine; Boucard, Tatiana; Burgin, Laura; Falloon, Peter D; Haygarth, Philip M; Hutchinson, Thomas; Kovats, R Sari; Leonardi, Giovanni; Levy, Leonard S; Nichols, Gordon; Parsons, Simon A; Potts, Laura; Stone, David; Topp, Edward; Turley, David B; Walsh, Kerry; Wellington, Elizabeth M H; Williams, Richard J

2009-04-01

Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes.

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

The ice-core record - Climate sensitivity and future greenhouse warming

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lorius, C.; Raynaud, D.; Jouzel, J.; Hansen, J.; Le Treut, H.

1990-01-01

The prediction of future greenhouse-gas-warming depends critically on the sensitivity of earth's climate to increasing atmospheric concentrations of these gases. Data from cores drilled in polar ice sheets show a remarkable correlation between past glacial-interglacial temperature changes and the inferred atmospheric concentration of gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. These and other palaeoclimate data are used to assess the role of greenhouse gases in explaining past global climate change, and the validity of models predicting the effect of increasing concentrations of such gases in the atmosphere.

The Influence of Climate Change on Irrigated Water Demands and Surface Water Availability of the Yellow River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troy, T. J.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Balancing irrigated water demands and surface water availability is critical for sustainable water resources management. In China, irrigation is the largest water user, and there is concern that irrigated water demands will be affected by climate change. If the relationship between climate change, irrigated water demands and surface water availability is quantified, then effective measures can be developed to maintain food production while ensuring water sustainability. This research focuses on the Yellow River, the second longest in China, and analyzes the impact of historical and projected climate change on agricultural water demands and surface water availability. Corn and wheat are selected as representative crops to estimate the effect of temperature and precipitin changes on irrigated water demands. The VIC model is used to simulate daily streamflow throughout the Yellow River, providing estimates of surface water availability. Overall, results indicate the irrigated water need and surface water availability are impacted by climate change, with spatially varying impacts depending on spatial patterns of climate trends and river network position. This research provides insight into water security in the Yellow River basin, indicating where water efficiency measures are needed and where they are not.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ibarraran , Maria E.; Malone, Elizabeth L.; Brenkert, Antoinette L.

Climate change alters different localities on the planet in different ways. The impact on each region depends mainly on the degree of vulnerability that natural ecosystems and human-made infrastructure have to changes in climate and extreme meteorological events, as well as on the coping and adaptation capacity towards new environmental conditions. This study assesses the current resilience of Mexico and Mexican states to such changes, as well as how this resilience will look in the future. In recent studies (Moss et al. 2000, Brenkert and Malone 2005, Malone and Brenket 2008, Ibarrarán et al. 2007), the Vulnerability-Resilience Indicators Model (VRIM)more » is used to integrate a set of proxy variables that determine the resilience of a region to climate change. Resilience, or the ability of a region to respond to climate variations and natural events that result from climate change, is given by its adaptation and coping capacity and its sensitivity. On the one hand, the sensitivity of a region to climate change is assessed, emphasizing its infrastructure, food security, water resources, and the health of the population and regional ecosystems. On the other hand, coping and adaptation capacity is based on the availability of human resources, economic capacity and environmental capacity.« less

Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.

2004-01-01

Global climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80DG N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena.

Is climate change affecting wolf populations in the high Arctic?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.

2004-01-01

Gobal climate change may affect wolves in Canada's High Arctic (80?? N) acting through three trophic levels (vegetation, herbivores, and wolves). A wolf pack dependent on muskoxen and arctic hares in the Eureka area of Ellesmere Island denned and produced pups most years from at least 1986 through 1997. However, when summer snow covered vegetation in 1997 and 2000 for the first time since records were kept, halving the herbivore nutrition-replenishment period, muskox and hare numbers dropped drastically, and the area stopped supporting denning wolves through 2003. The unusual weather triggering these events was consistent with global-climate-change phenomena. ?? 2004 Kluwer Academic Publishers.

Shorebird migration in the face of climate change: potential shifts in migration phenology and resource availability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stutzman, Ryan J.; Fontaine, Joseph J

2015-01-01

Changes in temperature and seasonality resulting from climate change are heterogeneous, potentially altering important sources of natural selection acting on species phenology. Some species have apparently adapted to climate change but the ability of most species to adapt remains unknown. The life history strategies of migratory animals are dictated by seasonal factors, which makes these species particularly vulnerable to heterogeneous changes in climate and phenology. Here, we examine the phenology of migratory shorebirds, their habitats, and primary food resources, and we hypothesize how climate change may affect migrants through predicted changes in phenology. Daily abundance of shorebirds at stopover sites was correlated with local phenology and peaked immediately prior to peaks in invertebrate food resources. A close relationship between migrant and invertebrate phenology indicates that shorebirds may be vulnerable to changes in seasonality driven by climate change. It is possible that shifts in migrant and invertebrate phenology will be congruent in magnitude and direction, but because migration phenology is dependent on a suite of ecological factors, any response is likely to occur at a larger temporal scale and may lag behind the response of invertebrate food resources. The resulting lack of sufficient access to food at stopover habitats may cause migrants to extend migration and have cascading effects throughout their life cycle. If the heterogeneous nature of climate change results in uneven changes in phenology between migrants and their prey, it may threaten the long-term viability of migratory populations

Impacts of land cover changes on climate trends in Jiangxi province China.

PubMed

Wang, Qi; Riemann, Dirk; Vogt, Steffen; Glaser, Rüdiger

2014-07-01

Land-use/land-cover (LULC) change is an important climatic force, and is also affected by climate change. In the present study, we aimed to assess the regional scale impact of LULC on climate change using Jiangxi Province, China, as a case study. To obtain reliable climate trends, we applied the standard normal homogeneity test (SNHT) to surface air temperature and precipitation data for the period 1951-1999. We also compared the temperature trends computed from Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) datasets and from our analysis. To examine the regional impacts of land surface types on surface air temperature and precipitation change integrating regional topography, we used the observation minus reanalysis (OMR) method. Precipitation series were found to be homogeneous. Comparison of GHCN and our analysis on adjusted temperatures indicated that the resulting climate trends varied slightly from dataset to dataset. OMR trends associated with surface vegetation types revealed a strong surface warming response to land barrenness and weak warming response to land greenness. A total of 81.1% of the surface warming over vegetation index areas (0-0.2) was attributed to surface vegetation type change and regional topography. The contribution of surface vegetation type change decreases as land cover greenness increases. The OMR precipitation trend has a weak dependence on surface vegetation type change. We suggest that LULC integrating regional topography should be considered as a force in regional climate modeling.

Climate change may alter breeding ground distributions of eastern migratory monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via range expansion of Asclepias host plants.

PubMed

Lemoine, Nathan P

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species' distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration.

Climate Change May Alter Breeding Ground Distributions of Eastern Migratory Monarchs (Danaus plexippus) via Range Expansion of Asclepias Host Plants

PubMed Central

Lemoine, Nathan P.

2015-01-01

Climate change can profoundly alter species’ distributions due to changes in temperature, precipitation, or seasonality. Migratory monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) may be particularly susceptible to climate-driven changes in host plant abundance or reduced overwintering habitat. For example, climate change may significantly reduce the availability of overwintering habitat by restricting the amount of area with suitable microclimate conditions. However, potential effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations remain largely unknown, particularly with respect to their milkweed (Asclepias spp.) host plants. Given that monarchs largely depend on the genus Asclepias as larval host plants, the effects of climate change on monarch northward migrations will most likely be mediated by climate change effects on Asclepias. Here, I used MaxEnt species distribution modeling to assess potential changes in Asclepias and monarch distributions under moderate and severe climate change scenarios. First, Asclepias distributions were projected to extend northward throughout much of Canada despite considerable variability in the environmental drivers of each individual species. Second, Asclepias distributions were an important predictor of current monarch distributions, indicating that monarchs may be constrained as much by the availability of Asclepias host plants as environmental variables per se. Accordingly, modeling future distributions of monarchs, and indeed any tightly coupled plant-insect system, should incorporate the effects of climate change on host plant distributions. Finally, MaxEnt predictions of Asclepias and monarch distributions were remarkably consistent among general circulation models. Nearly all models predicted that the current monarch summer breeding range will become slightly less suitable for Asclepias and monarchs in the future. Asclepias, and consequently monarchs, should therefore undergo expanded northern range limits in summer months while encountering reduced habitat suitability throughout the northern migration. PMID:25705876

Nitrogen use efficiency in the US economy: Towards mitigation of climate change impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houlton, B. Z.; Boyer, E. W.; Finzi, A. C.; Galloway, J. N.; Leach, A.; Liptzin, D.; Melillo, J. M.; Rosenstock, T.; Sobota, D. J.; Townsend, A. R.

2011-12-01

Nitrogen (N) interacts strongly with climate change in determining the severity and extent of many human health and environmental issues, such as eutrophication, poor air quality, and the maintenance of a secure food system. We were motivated by such N-climate interactions and their environmental impacts as part of a broader assessment of N in the continental United States. We here seek to identify and quantify inefficiencies associated with intentional N creation (i.e., creating synthetic N fertilizers and cultivating N-fixing legumes) among the major N-dependent sectors of the United States economy. We define efficiency of N use as the proportion N directly incorporated into food, fiber, biofuel, and industrial goods from the pool of intentionally created N. We are interested in whether reductions in N use could be achieved without changing the current functioning of the major N-dependent economic sectors. Our analysis points to substantial inefficiencies in N use at the national scale. A large percentage of the N applied as synthetic fertilizer and fixed by legumes annually fails to enter the United States food supply. Much of the unincorporated N enters air, land and water, where it can impact human health and ecosystems. The climate change forcing of N is uncertain, though it appears that the combined effects of intentionally and unintentionally created N on climate is roughly neutral in the United States (i.e., net effect of N-enhanced C storage, nitrous oxide emissions, N-based aerosols, and tropospheric ozone on climate forcing). Thus, it is reasonable to expect that improved efficiencies in N use would have minimal negative side effects on the United States economy, human health and the environment. We suggest that policies aimed at improving N-use efficiencies are an alternative to direct climate mitigation strategies in offsetting several impacts of climate change on human health and ecosystem functioning.

Which complexity of regional climate system models is essential for downscaling anthropogenic climate change in the Northwest European Shelf?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mathis, Moritz; Elizalde, Alberto; Mikolajewicz, Uwe

2018-04-01

Climate change impact studies for the Northwest European Shelf (NWES) make use of various dynamical downscaling strategies in the experimental setup of regional ocean circulation models. Projected change signals from coupled and uncoupled downscalings with different domain sizes and forcing global and regional models show substantial uncertainty. In this paper, we investigate influences of the downscaling strategy on projected changes in the physical and biogeochemical conditions of the NWES. Our results indicate that uncertainties due to different downscaling strategies are similar to uncertainties due to the choice of the parent global model and the downscaling regional model. Downscaled change signals reveal to depend stronger on the downscaling strategy than on the model skills in simulating present-day conditions. Uncoupled downscalings of sea surface temperature (SST) changes are found to be tightly constrained by the atmospheric forcing. The incorporation of coupled air-sea interaction, by contrast, allows the regional model system to develop independently. Changes in salinity show a higher sensitivity to open lateral boundary conditions and river runoff than to coupled or uncoupled atmospheric forcings. Dependencies on the downscaling strategy for changes in SST, salinity, stratification and circulation collectively affect changes in nutrient import and biological primary production.

Evaluation of climatic changes in South-Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kjellstrom, Erik; Rana, Arun; Grigory, Nikulin; Renate, Wilcke; Hansson, Ulf; Kolax, Michael

2016-04-01

Literature has sufficient evidences of climate change impact all over the world and its impact on various sectors. In light of new advancements made in climate modeling, availability of several climate downscaling approaches, the more robust bias correction methods with varying complexities and strengths, in the present study we performed a systematic evaluation of climate change impact over South-Asia region. We have used different Regional Climate Models (RCMs) (from CORDEX domain), (Global Climate Models GCMs) and gridded observations for the study area to evaluate the models in historical/control period (1980-2010) and changes in future period (2010-2099). Firstly, GCMs and RCMs are evaluated against the Gridded observational datasets in the area using precipitation and temperature as indicative variables. Observational dataset are also evaluated against the reliable set of observational dataset, as pointed in literature. Bias, Correlation, and changes (among other statistical measures) are calculated for the entire region and both the variables. Eventually, the region was sub-divided into various smaller domains based on homogenous precipitation zones to evaluate the average changes over time period. Spatial and temporal changes for the region are then finally calculated to evaluate the future changes in the region. Future changes are calculated for 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the middle emission (RCP4.5) and high emission (RCP8.5) and for both climatic variables, precipitation and temperature. Lastly, Evaluation of Extremes is performed based on precipitation and temperature based indices for whole region in future dataset. Results have indicated that the whole study region is under extreme stress in future climate scenarios for both climatic variables i.e. precipitation and temperature. Precipitation variability is dependent on the location in the area leading to droughts and floods in various regions in future. Temperature is hinting towards a constant increase throughout the region regardless of location.

Assessing Potential Future Carbon Dynamics with Climate Change and Fire Management in a Mountainous Landscape on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, R. S.

2010-12-01

Forests of the mountainous landscapes of the maritime Pacific Northwestern USA may have high carbon sequestration potential via their high productivity and moderate to infrequent fire regimes. With climate change, there may be shifts in incidence and severity of fire, especially in the drier areas of the region, via changes to forest productivity and hydrology, and consequent effects to C sequestration and forest structure. To explore this issue, I assessed potential effects of fire management (little fire suppression/wildland fire management/highly effective fire suppression) under two climate change scenarios on future C sequestration dynamics (amounts and spatial pattern) in Olympic National Park, WA, over a 500-year simulation period. I used the simulation platform FireBGCv2, which contains a mechanistic, individual tree succession model, a spatially explicit climate-based biophysical model that uses daily weather data, and a spatially explicit fire model incorporating ignition, spread, and effects on ecosystem components. C sequestration patterns varied over time and spatial and temporal patterns differed somewhat depending on the climate change scenario applied and the fire management methods employed. Under the more extreme climate change scenario with little fire suppression, fires were most frequent and severe and C sequestration decreased. General trends were similar under the more moderate climate change scenario, as compared to current climate, but spatial patterns differed. Both climate change scenarios under highly effective fire suppression showed about 50% of starting total C after the initial transition phase, whereas with 10% fire suppression both scenarios exhibited about 10% of starting amounts. Areas of the landscape that served as refugia for older forest under increasing frequency of high severity fire were also hotspots for C sequestration in a landscape experiencing increasing frequency of disturbance with climate change.

Effect of Climate Change on Soil Temperature in Swedish Boreal Forests

PubMed Central

Jungqvist, Gunnar; Oni, Stephen K.; Teutschbein, Claudia; Futter, Martyn N.

2014-01-01

Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions. PMID:24747938

Effect of climate change on soil temperature in Swedish boreal forests.

PubMed

Jungqvist, Gunnar; Oni, Stephen K; Teutschbein, Claudia; Futter, Martyn N

2014-01-01

Complex non-linear relationships exist between air and soil temperature responses to climate change. Despite its influence on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, soil temperature has received less attention in climate impact studies. Here we present and apply an empirical soil temperature model to four forest sites along a climatic gradient of Sweden. Future air and soil temperature were projected using an ensemble of regional climate models. Annual average air and soil temperatures were projected to increase, but complex dynamics were projected on a seasonal scale. Future changes in winter soil temperature were strongly dependent on projected snow cover. At the northernmost site, winter soil temperatures changed very little due to insulating effects of snow cover but southern sites with little or no snow cover showed the largest projected winter soil warming. Projected soil warming was greatest in the spring (up to 4°C) in the north, suggesting earlier snowmelt, extension of growing season length and possible northward shifts in the boreal biome. This showed that the projected effects of climate change on soil temperature in snow dominated regions are complex and general assumptions of future soil temperature responses to climate change based on air temperature alone are inadequate and should be avoided in boreal regions.

Bivariate analysis of floods in climate impact assessments.

PubMed

Brunner, Manuela Irene; Sikorska, Anna E; Seibert, Jan

2018-03-01

Climate impact studies regarding floods usually focus on peak discharges and a bivariate assessment of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes is not commonly included. A joint consideration of peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, however, is crucial when assessing flood risks for current and future climate conditions. Here, we present a methodology to develop synthetic design hydrographs for future climate conditions that jointly consider peak discharges and hydrograph volumes. First, change factors are derived based on a regional climate model and are applied to observed precipitation and temperature time series. Second, the modified time series are fed into a calibrated hydrological model to simulate runoff time series for future conditions. Third, these time series are used to construct synthetic design hydrographs. The bivariate flood frequency analysis used in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs takes into account the dependence between peak discharges and hydrograph volumes, and represents the shape of the hydrograph. The latter is modeled using a probability density function while the dependence between the design variables peak discharge and hydrograph volume is modeled using a copula. We applied this approach to a set of eight mountainous catchments in Switzerland to construct catchment-specific and season-specific design hydrographs for a control and three scenario climates. Our work demonstrates that projected climate changes have an impact not only on peak discharges but also on hydrograph volumes and on hydrograph shapes both at an annual and at a seasonal scale. These changes are not necessarily proportional which implies that climate impact assessments on future floods should consider more flood characteristics than just flood peaks. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

An Interface between Law and Science: The Climate Change Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Grandbois, M.; Kaniaha, S.

2012-04-01

Law and Science are jointly building the international climate change regime. Up to date, international law and climate science have been unable to take into consideration both regional law and Pacific climate science in this process. Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region) significant efforts were dedicated to improve understanding of climate in the Pacific through the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). The first comprehensive PCCSP scientific report on the South Pacific climate has been published in 2011. Under the PASAP, web-based information tools for seasonal climate prediction have been developed and now outputs from dynamical climate model are used in 15 countries of the North-West and South Pacific for enhanced prediction of rainfall, air and sea surface temperatures which reduces countries' vulnerability to climate variability in the context of a changing climate. On a regional scale, the Meteorological and Geohazards Department of Vanuatu is preparing a full report on Climate change impacts on the country. These scientific reports and tools could lead to a better understanding of climate change in the South Pacific and to a better understanding of climate change science, for lawyers and policy-makers. The International climate change regime develops itself according to science findings, and at the pace of the four scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In return, Law is a contributing factor to climate change, a structural data in the development and perception of environmental issues and it exerts an influence on Science. Because of the dependency of law on science, the PCCSP and PASAP outcomes will also stimulate and orientate developments in law of the Pacific Island countries, as well as it could increase countries' contributions to the future of international environmental law. Vanuatu is pioneering this process in the Pacific and could make a leading contribution to the development of Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties, according to the Bali action Plan and to participate actively in the negotiations of a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. In studying and transposing the national climate change report, Vanuatu would also sensibly improve its own environmental laws in response to climate change. By building a bridge between law and science in the Pacific, we are training scientists to climate change law, and training lawyers and policy-makers to climate change science; increasing the collaborative process and the cooperation between scientists and lawyers, in drafting national environmental laws and in negotiating international climate change agreements; and enhancing the contribution of small vulnerable islands to the development of the international climate change regime, as it regards to law and to science. Training for climate scientists and for lawyers and policy-makers on climate change science and law will be provided through the USP Course on climate change international law and climate change science - the first course on this type in the Pacific.

Global warming alters sound transmission: differential impact on the prey detection ability of echolocating bats

PubMed Central

Luo, Jinhong; Koselj, Klemen; Zsebők, Sándor; Siemers, Björn M.; Goerlitz, Holger R.

2014-01-01

Climate change impacts the biogeography and phenology of plants and animals, yet the underlying mechanisms are little known. Here, we present a functional link between rising temperature and the prey detection ability of echolocating bats. The maximum distance for echo-based prey detection is physically determined by sound attenuation. Attenuation is more pronounced for high-frequency sound, such as echolocation, and is a nonlinear function of both call frequency and ambient temperature. Hence, the prey detection ability, and thus possibly the foraging efficiency, of echolocating bats and susceptible to rising temperatures through climate change. Using present-day climate data and projected temperature rises, we modelled this effect for the entire range of bat call frequencies and climate zones around the globe. We show that depending on call frequency, the prey detection volume of bats will either decrease or increase: species calling above a crossover frequency will lose and species emitting lower frequencies will gain prey detection volume, with crossover frequency and magnitude depending on the local climatic conditions. Within local species assemblages, this may cause a change in community composition. Global warming can thus directly affect the prey detection ability of individual bats and indirectly their interspecific interactions with competitors and prey. PMID:24335559

Global warming alters sound transmission: differential impact on the prey detection ability of echolocating bats.

PubMed

Luo, Jinhong; Koselj, Klemen; Zsebok, Sándor; Siemers, Björn M; Goerlitz, Holger R

2014-02-06

Climate change impacts the biogeography and phenology of plants and animals, yet the underlying mechanisms are little known. Here, we present a functional link between rising temperature and the prey detection ability of echolocating bats. The maximum distance for echo-based prey detection is physically determined by sound attenuation. Attenuation is more pronounced for high-frequency sound, such as echolocation, and is a nonlinear function of both call frequency and ambient temperature. Hence, the prey detection ability, and thus possibly the foraging efficiency, of echolocating bats and susceptible to rising temperatures through climate change. Using present-day climate data and projected temperature rises, we modelled this effect for the entire range of bat call frequencies and climate zones around the globe. We show that depending on call frequency, the prey detection volume of bats will either decrease or increase: species calling above a crossover frequency will lose and species emitting lower frequencies will gain prey detection volume, with crossover frequency and magnitude depending on the local climatic conditions. Within local species assemblages, this may cause a change in community composition. Global warming can thus directly affect the prey detection ability of individual bats and indirectly their interspecific interactions with competitors and prey.

Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Antara; Maycock, Amanda C.; Pyle, John A.

2018-02-01

The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model). Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of -0.09 W m-2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m-2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m-2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (˜ 15 %) of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m-2) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (-0.07 W m-2) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m-2) for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs.

Climate change and the future of natural disturbances in the central hardwood region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H; Hughes, M. Joseph; Hayes, Daniel J

The spatial patterns and ecological processes of the southeastern upland hardwood forests have evolved to reflect past climatic conditions and natural disturbance regimes. Changes in climate can lead to disturbances that exceed their natural range of variation, and the impacts of these changes will depend on the vulnerability or resiliency of these ecosystems. Global Circulation Models generally project annual increases in temperature across the southeastern United States over the coming decades, but changes in precipitation are less consistent. Even more unclear is how climate change might affect future trends in the severity and frequency of natural disturbances, such as severemore » storms, fires, droughts, floods, and insect outbreaks. Here, we use a time-series satellite data record to map the spatial pattern and severity of broad classes of natural disturbances the southeast region. The data derived from this map allow analysis of regional-scale trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in the region over the last three decades. Throughout the region, between 5% and 25% of forest land is affected by some sort of disturbance each year since 1985. The time series reveals periodic droughts that themselves are widespread and of low severity but are associated with more localized, high-severity disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. The map also reveals extensive anthropogenic disturbance across the region in the form of forest conversion related to resource extraction and urban and residential development. We discuss how changes in climate and disturbance regimes might affect southeastern forests in the future via altering the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of these ecosystems. Changes in climate are highly likely to expose southeastern forests to more frequent and severe disturbances, but ultimately how vulnerable or resilient southeastern forests are to these changes will depend on their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to these novel conditions.« less

Communicating for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from a Case Study with Nature-Based Tour Operators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, K.; Sparrow, E. B.; Pettit, E. C.; Trainor, S. F.; Taylor, K.

2014-12-01

Increasing temperatures are projected to have a positive effect on the length of Alaska's tourism season, but the natural attractions that tourism relies on, such as glaciers, wildlife, fish, or other natural resources, may change. In order to continue to derive benefits from these resources, nature-based tour operators may have to adapt to these changes, and communication is an essential, but poorly understood, component of the climate change adaptation process. The goal of this study was to determine how to provide useful climate change information to nature-based tour operators by answering the following questions: 1. What environmental changes do nature-based tour operators perceive? 2. How are nature-based tour operators responding to climate and environmental change? 3. What climate change information do nature-based tour operators need? To answer these questions, twenty-four nature-based tour operators representing 20 different small and medium sized businesses in Juneau, Alaska were interviewed. The results show that many of Juneau's nature-based tour operators are observing, responding to, and in some cases, actively planning for further changes in the environment. The types of responses tended to vary depending on the participants' certainty in climate change and the perceived risks to their organization. Using these two factors, this study proposes a framework to classify climate change responses for the purpose of generating meaningful information and communication processes that promote adaptation and build adaptive capacity. During the course of the study, several other valuable lessons were learned about communicating about adaptation. The results of this study demonstrate that science communication research has an important place in the practice of promoting and fostering climate change adaptation. While the focus of this study was tour operators, the lessons learned may be valuable to other organizations striving to engage unique groups in climate change adaptation planning efforts and to social scientists trying to understanding of the role of communication in climate change adaptation.

Unexpected consequences of a drier world: evidence that delay in late summer rains biases the population sex ratio of an insect.

PubMed

Bonal, Raul; Hernández, Marisa; Espelta, Josep M; Muñoz, Alberto; Aparicio, José M

2015-09-01

The complexity of animal life histories makes it difficult to predict the consequences of climate change on their populations. In this paper, we show, for the first time, that longer summer drought episodes, such as those predicted for the dry Mediterranean region under climate change, may bias insect population sex ratio. Many Mediterranean organisms, like the weevil Curculio elephas, become active again after summer drought. This insect depends on late summer rainfall to soften the soil and allow adult emergence from their underground refuges. We found that, as in many protandric species, more C. elephas females emerged later in the season. Male emergence timing was on average earlier and also more dependent on the beginning of late summer rainfall. When these rains were delayed, the observed weevil sex ratio was biased towards females. So far, the effects of global warming on animal sex ratios has been reported for temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles. Our results show that rainfall timing can also bias the sex ratio in an insect, and highlight the need for keeping a phenological perspective to predict the consequences of climate change. We must consider not just the magnitude of the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall but also the effects of their timing.

Unexpected consequences of a drier world: evidence that delay in late summer rains biases the population sex ratio of an insect

PubMed Central

Bonal, Raul; Hernández, Marisa; Espelta, Josep M.; Muñoz, Alberto; Aparicio, José M.

2015-01-01

The complexity of animal life histories makes it difficult to predict the consequences of climate change on their populations. In this paper, we show, for the first time, that longer summer drought episodes, such as those predicted for the dry Mediterranean region under climate change, may bias insect population sex ratio. Many Mediterranean organisms, like the weevil Curculio elephas, become active again after summer drought. This insect depends on late summer rainfall to soften the soil and allow adult emergence from their underground refuges. We found that, as in many protandric species, more C. elephas females emerged later in the season. Male emergence timing was on average earlier and also more dependent on the beginning of late summer rainfall. When these rains were delayed, the observed weevil sex ratio was biased towards females. So far, the effects of global warming on animal sex ratios has been reported for temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles. Our results show that rainfall timing can also bias the sex ratio in an insect, and highlight the need for keeping a phenological perspective to predict the consequences of climate change. We must consider not just the magnitude of the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall but also the effects of their timing. PMID:26473046

The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

2012-04-01

Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising incomes. The scale of the impacts and their direction depend to some extent on (re)insurer responses to the challenges of climate change. We outline five actions that could pave the way for future opportunities in the industry. Authors of the paper: Ranger, Nicola (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/ Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, London, UK) and Surminski, Swenja (Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy/ Grantham Research Institute, London School of Economics, London, UK)

Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

2013-12-01

Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change on public health and identify appropriate adaptation strategies. Several studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on health, which have included evaluating the current associations between the recent changes in climate, and the evidence base analysis of current, as well as projecting the future impacts of climate change on health. This study will document the use of building an integrated approach for sustainable management of climate, environmental, health surveillance and epidemiological data that will support the assessment of vulnerability, impact and adaption to climate change.

Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation--the importance of an integrated approach.

PubMed

Falloon, Pete; Betts, Richard

2010-11-01

We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices. The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience. The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European agriculture and water management are projections of future climate and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts assessments. Methods for assessing options which "moderate" the impact of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral impacts and socio-economic aspects. Crown Copyright © 2009. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Demographic amplification of climate change experienced by the contiguous United States population during the 20(th) century.

PubMed

Samson, Jason; Berteaux, Dominique; McGill, Brian J; Humphries, Murray M

2012-01-01

Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20(th) century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse.

Demographic Amplification of Climate Change Experienced by the Contiguous United States Population during the 20th Century

PubMed Central

Samson, Jason; Berteaux, Dominique; McGill, Brian J.; Humphries, Murray M.

2012-01-01

Better understanding of the changing relationship between human populations and climate is a global research priority. The 20th century in the contiguous United States offers a particularly well-documented example of human demographic expansion during a period of radical socioeconomic and environmental change. One would expect that as human society has been transformed by technology, we would become increasingly decoupled from climate and more dependent on social infrastructure. Here we use spatially-explicit models to evaluate climatic, socio-economic and biophysical correlates of demographic change in the contiguous United States between 1900 and 2000. Climate-correlated variation in population growth has caused the U.S. population to shift its realized climate niche from cool, seasonal climates to warm, aseasonal climates. As a result, the average annual temperature experienced by U.S. citizens between 1920 and 2000 has increased by more than 1.5°C and the temperature seasonality has decreased by 1.1°C during a century when climate change accounted for only a 0.24°C increase in average annual temperature and a 0.15°C decrease in temperature seasonality. Thus, despite advancing technology, climate-correlated demographics continue to be a major feature of contemporary U.S. society. Unfortunately, these demographic patterns are contributing to a substantial warming of the climate niche during a period of rapid environmental warming, making an already bad situation worse. PMID:23115624

Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models

DOE PAGES

Andrews, Timothy; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Webb, Mark J.; ...

2012-05-15

We quantify forcing and feedbacks across available CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) by analysing simulations forced by an abrupt quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. This is the first application of the linear forcing-feedback regression analysis of Gregory et al. (2004) to an ensemble of AOGCMs. The range of equilibrium climate sensitivity is 2.1–4.7 K. Differences in cloud feedbacks continue to be important contributors to this range. Some models show small deviations from a linear dependence of top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes on global surface temperature change. We show that this phenomenon largely arises from shortwave cloud radiative effects overmore » the ocean and is consistent with independent estimates of forcing using fixed sea-surface temperature methods. Moreover, we suggest that future research should focus more on understanding transient climate change, including any time-scale dependence of the forcing and/or feedback, rather than on the equilibrium response to large instantaneous forcing.« less

Development, malaria and adaptation to climate change: a case study from India.

PubMed

Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R C; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P R

2009-05-01

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.

Development, Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, Amit; Dhiman, R. C.; Bhattacharya, Sumana; Shukla, P. R.

2009-05-01

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.

Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

2009-01-01

Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Human activities and climate variability drive fast-paced change across the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, James E.; Abreu, Paulo C.; Carstensen, Jacob; Chauvaud, Laurent; Elmgren, Ragnar; Grall, Jacques; Greening, Holly; Johansson, John O.R.; Kahru, Mati; Sherwood, Edward T.; Xu, Jie; Yin, Kedong

2016-01-01

Time series of environmental measurements are essential for detecting, measuring and understanding changes in the Earth system and its biological communities. Observational series have accumulated over the past 2–5 decades from measurements across the world's estuaries, bays, lagoons, inland seas and shelf waters influenced by runoff. We synthesize information contained in these time series to develop a global view of changes occurring in marine systems influenced by connectivity to land. Our review is organized around four themes: (i) human activities as drivers of change; (ii) variability of the climate system as a driver of change; (iii) successes, disappointments and challenges of managing change at the sea-land interface; and (iv) discoveries made from observations over time. Multidecadal time series reveal that many of the world's estuarine–coastal ecosystems are in a continuing state of change, and the pace of change is faster than we could have imagined a decade ago. Some have been transformed into novel ecosystems with habitats, biogeochemistry and biological communities outside the natural range of variability. Change takes many forms including linear and nonlinear trends, abrupt state changes and oscillations. The challenge of managing change is daunting in the coastal zone where diverse human pressures are concentrated and intersect with different responses to climate variability over land and over ocean basins. The pace of change in estuarine–coastal ecosystems will likely accelerate as the human population and economies continue to grow and as global climate change accelerates. Wise stewardship of the resources upon which we depend is critically dependent upon a continuing flow of information from observations to measure, understand and anticipate future changes along the world's coastlines.

'Changing climate, changing health, changing stories' profile: using an EcoHealth approach to explore impacts of climate change on inuit health.

PubMed

Harper, S L; Edge, V L; Cunsolo Willox, A

2012-03-01

Global climate change and its impact on public health exemplify the challenge of managing complexity and uncertainty in health research. The Canadian North is currently experiencing dramatic shifts in climate, resulting in environmental changes which impact Inuit livelihoods, cultural practices, and health. For researchers investigating potential climate change impacts on Inuit health, it has become clear that comprehensive and meaningful research outcomes depend on taking a systemic and transdisciplinary approach that engages local citizens in project design, data collection, and analysis. While it is increasingly recognised that using approaches that embrace complexity is a necessity in public health, mobilizing such approaches from theory into practice can be challenging. In 2009, the Rigolet Inuit Community Government in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada partnered with a transdisciplinary team of researchers, health practitioners, and community storytelling facilitators to create the Changing Climate, Changing Health, Changing Stories project, aimed at developing a multi-media participatory, community-run methodological strategy to gather locally appropriate and meaningful data to explore climate-health relationships. The goal of this profile paper is to describe how an EcoHealth approach guided by principles of transdisciplinarity, community participation, and social equity was used to plan and implement this climate-health research project. An overview of the project, including project development, research methods, project outcomes to date, and challenges encountered, is presented. Though introduced in this one case study, the processes, methods, and lessons learned are broadly applicable to researchers and communities interested in implementing EcoHealth approaches in community-based research.

Influence of Geographic Factors on the Life Cycle Climate Change Impacts of Renewable Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortier, M. O. P.

2017-12-01

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is a valuable tool to measure the cradle-to-grave climate change impacts of the sustainable energy systems that are planned to replace conventional fossil energy-based systems. The recent inclusion of geographic specificity in bioenergy LCAs has shown that the relative sustainability of these energy sources is often dependent on geographic factors, such as the climate change impact of changing the land cover and local resource availability. However, this development has not yet been implemented to most LCAs of energy systems that do not have biological feedstocks, such as wind, water, and solar-based energy systems. For example, the tidal velocity where tidal rotors are installed can significantly alter the life cycle climate change impacts of electricity generated using the same technology in different locations. For LCAs of solar updraft towers, the albedo change impacts arising from changing the reflectivity of the land that would be converted can be of the same magnitude as other life cycle process climate change impacts. Improvements to determining the life cycle climate change impacts of renewable energy technologies can be made by utilizing GIS and satellite data and by conducting site-specific analyses. This practice can enhance our understanding of the life cycle environmental impacts of technologies that are aimed to reduce the impacts of our current energy systems, and it can improve the siting of new systems to optimize a reduction in climate change impacts.

Effective Climate Refugia for Cold-water Fishes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ebersole, J. L.; Morelli, T. L.; Torgersen, C.; Isaak, D.; Keenan, D.; Labiosa, R.; Fullerton, A.; Massie, J.

2015-12-01

Climate change threatens to create fundamental shifts in in the distributions and abundances of endothermic organisms such as cold-water salmon and trout species (salmonids). Recently published projected declines in mid-latitude salmonid distributions under future climates range from modest to severe, depending on modeling approaches, assumptions, and spatial context of analyses. Given these projected losses, increased emphasis on management for ecosystem resilience to help buffer cold-water fish populations and their habitats against climate change is emerging. Using terms such as "climate-proofing", "climate-ready", and "climate refugia", such efforts stake a claim for an adaptive, anticipatory planning response to the climate change threat. To be effective, such approaches will need to address critical uncertainties in both the physical basis for projected landscape changes in water temperature and streamflow, as well as the biological responses of organisms. Recent efforts define future potential climate refugia based on projected streamflows, air temperatures, and associated water temperature changes. These efforts reflect the relatively strong conceptual foundation for linkages between regional climate change and local hydrological responses and thermal dynamics. Yet important questions remain. Drawing on case studies throughout the Pacific Northwest, we illustrate some key uncertainties in the responses of salmonids and their habitats to altered hydro-climatic regimes currently not well addressed by physical or ecological models. Key uncertainties include biotic interactions, organismal adaptive capacity, local climate decoupling due to groundwater-surface water interactions, the influence of human engineering responses, and synergies between climatic and other stressors. These uncertainties need not delay anticipatory planning, but rather highlight the need for identification and communication of actions with high probabilities of success, and targeted research within an adaptive management framework.

Novel competitors shape species' responses to climate change.

PubMed

Alexander, Jake M; Diez, Jeffrey M; Levine, Jonathan M

2015-09-24

Understanding how species respond to climate change is critical for forecasting the future dynamics and distribution of pests, diseases and biological diversity. Although ecologists have long acknowledged species' direct physiological and demographic responses to climate, more recent work suggests that these direct responses can be overwhelmed by indirect effects mediated via other interacting community members. Theory suggests that some of the most dramatic impacts of community change will probably arise through the assembly of novel species combinations after asynchronous migrations with climate. Empirical tests of this prediction are rare, as existing work focuses on the effects of changing interactions between competitors that co-occur today. To explore how species' responses to climate warming depend on how their competitors migrate to track climate, we transplanted alpine plant species and intact plant communities along a climate gradient in the Swiss Alps. Here we show that when alpine plants were transplanted to warmer climates to simulate a migration failure, their performance was strongly reduced by novel competitors that could migrate upwards from lower elevation; these effects generally exceeded the impact of warming on competition with current competitors. In contrast, when we grew the focal plants under their current climate to simulate climate tracking, a shift in the competitive environment to novel high-elevation competitors had little to no effect. This asymmetry in the importance of changing competitor identity at the leading versus trailing range edges is best explained by the degree of functional similarity between current and novel competitors. We conclude that accounting for novel competitive interactions may be essential to predict species' responses to climate change accurately.

When will we be committed to crossing 1.5 and 2 °C temperature thresholds?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Proistosescu, C.; Roe, G.; Huybers, P. J.

2017-12-01

The zero-emissions climate commitment is a key metric for science and policy. It is the future warming we face given only to-date emissions, independent of future human influence on climate. Following a cessation of emissions, future global temperature change depends on (i) the atmospheric lifetimes of aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs), and (ii) the physical climate response to radiative forcing (Armour and Roe 2011). The cooling effect of aerosols diminishes within weeks; GHG concentrations get drawn down on timescales ranging from months to millennia; and ocean heat uptake diminishes as climate equilibrates with the residual CO2 forcing. Whether global temperature increases, stays stable, or declines following emission cessation depends on these competing factors. There is substantial uncertainty in the zero-emissions commitment due to a combination of (i) correlated uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, (ii) uncertainty in the atmospheric lifetime of CO2, and (iii) uncertainty in how climate sensitivity will evolve in the future. Here we quantify climate commitment in a Bayesian framework of an idealized model constrained by observations of global warming and energy imbalance, combined with estimates of global radiative forcing. At present, our committed warming is 1.2°C (median), with a 25% chance that it already exceeds 1.5°C and a 5% chance that it exceeds 2°C; the range comes primarily from uncertainty in the degree to which aerosols currently mask GHG forcing. We further quantify how climate commitment, and its uncertainty, changes with emissions scenario and over time. Under high emissions (RCP8.5), we will reach a >50% risk of a 2°C zero-emission climate commitment by the year 2035, about two decades before that temperature would be reached if emissions continued unabated. Committed warming is substantially reduced for lower-emissions scenarios, depending on the mix of aerosol and GHG mitigation. For the next few decades the primary uncertainty in climate commitment comes from correlated uncertainties in aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity; later in the century it comes from uncertainties in the carbon cycle (setting the lifetime and residual concentration of CO2) and in how climate sensitivity changes over time.

Projected wetland densities under climate change: habitat loss but little geographic shift in conservation strategy.

PubMed

Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Barsugli, Joseph J; Rashford, Benjamin S; Reese, Gordon C; Hoeting, Jennifer A; Wood, Andrew W; Noon, Barry R

2016-09-01

Climate change poses major challenges for conservation and management because it alters the area, quality, and spatial distribution of habitat for natural populations. To assess species' vulnerability to climate change and target ongoing conservation investments, researchers and managers often consider the effects of projected changes in climate and land use on future habitat availability and quality and the uncertainty associated with these projections. Here, we draw on tools from hydrology and climate science to project the impact of climate change on the density of wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the USA, a critical area for breeding waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species. We evaluate the potential for a trade-off in the value of conservation investments under current and future climatic conditions and consider the joint effects of climate and land use. We use an integrated set of hydrological and climatological projections that provide physically based measures of water balance under historical and projected future climatic conditions. In addition, we use historical projections derived from ten general circulation models (GCMs) as a baseline from which to assess climate change impacts, rather than historical climate data. This method isolates the impact of greenhouse gas emissions and ensures that modeling errors are incorporated into the baseline rather than attributed to climate change. Our work shows that, on average, densities of wetlands (here defined as wetland basins holding water) are projected to decline across the U.S. Prairie Pothole Region, but that GCMs differ in both the magnitude and the direction of projected impacts. However, we found little evidence for a shift in the locations expected to provide the highest wetland densities under current vs. projected climatic conditions. This result was robust to the inclusion of projected changes in land use under climate change. We suggest that targeting conservation towards wetland complexes containing both small and relatively large wetland basins, which is an ongoing conservation strategy, may also act to hedge against uncertainty in the effects of climate change. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Global covariation of carbon turnover times with climate in terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Carvalhais, Nuno; Forkel, Matthias; Khomik, Myroslava; Bellarby, Jessica; Jung, Martin; Migliavacca, Mirco; Mu, Mingquan; Saatchi, Sassan; Santoro, Maurizio; Thurner, Martin; Weber, Ulrich; Ahrens, Bernhard; Beer, Christian; Cescatti, Alessandro; Randerson, James T; Reichstein, Markus

2014-10-09

The response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to climate change is among the largest uncertainties affecting future climate change projections. The feedback between the terrestrial carbon cycle and climate is partly determined by changes in the turnover time of carbon in land ecosystems, which in turn is an ecosystem property that emerges from the interplay between climate, soil and vegetation type. Here we present a global, spatially explicit and observation-based assessment of whole-ecosystem carbon turnover times that combines new estimates of vegetation and soil organic carbon stocks and fluxes. We find that the overall mean global carbon turnover time is 23(+7)(-4) years (95 per cent confidence interval). On average, carbon resides in the vegetation and soil near the Equator for a shorter time than at latitudes north of 75° north (mean turnover times of 15 and 255 years, respectively). We identify a clear dependence of the turnover time on temperature, as expected from our present understanding of temperature controls on ecosystem dynamics. Surprisingly, our analysis also reveals a similarly strong association between turnover time and precipitation. Moreover, we find that the ecosystem carbon turnover times simulated by state-of-the-art coupled climate/carbon-cycle models vary widely and that numerical simulations, on average, tend to underestimate the global carbon turnover time by 36 per cent. The models show stronger spatial relationships with temperature than do observation-based estimates, but generally do not reproduce the strong relationships with precipitation and predict faster carbon turnover in many semi-arid regions. Our findings suggest that future climate/carbon-cycle feedbacks may depend more strongly on changes in the hydrological cycle than is expected at present and is considered in Earth system models.

Detecting extinction risk from climate change by IUCN Red List criteria.

PubMed

Keith, David A; Mahony, Michael; Hines, Harry; Elith, Jane; Regan, Tracey J; Baumgartner, John B; Hunter, David; Heard, Geoffrey W; Mitchell, Nicola J; Parris, Kirsten M; Penman, Trent; Scheele, Ben; Simpson, Christopher C; Tingley, Reid; Tracy, Christopher R; West, Matt; Akçakaya, H Resit

2014-06-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow-acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short-lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Sampling bias in climate-conflict research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adams, Courtland; Ide, Tobias; Barnett, Jon; Detges, Adrien

2018-03-01

Critics have argued that the evidence of an association between climate change and conflict is flawed because the research relies on a dependent variable sampling strategy1-4. Similarly, it has been hypothesized that convenience of access biases the sample of cases studied (the `streetlight effect'5). This also gives rise to claims that the climate-conflict literature stigmatizes some places as being more `naturally' violent6-8. Yet there has been no proof of such sampling patterns. Here we test whether climate-conflict research is based on such a biased sample through a systematic review of the literature. We demonstrate that research on climate change and violent conflict suffers from a streetlight effect. Further, studies which focus on a small number of cases in particular are strongly informed by cases where there has been conflict, do not sample on the independent variables (climate impact or risk), and hence tend to find some association between these two variables. These biases mean that research on climate change and conflict primarily focuses on a few accessible regions, overstates the links between both phenomena and cannot explain peaceful outcomes from climate change. This could result in maladaptive responses in those places that are stigmatized as being inherently more prone to climate-induced violence.

Using ERA-Interim reanalysis for creating datasets of energy-relevant climate variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Philip D.; Harpham, Colin; Troccoli, Alberto; Gschwind, Benoit; Ranchin, Thierry; Wald, Lucien; Goodess, Clare M.; Dorling, Stephen

2017-07-01

The construction of a bias-adjusted dataset of climate variables at the near surface using ERA-Interim reanalysis is presented. A number of different, variable-dependent, bias-adjustment approaches have been proposed. Here we modify the parameters of different distributions (depending on the variable), adjusting ERA-Interim based on gridded station or direct station observations. The variables are air temperature, dewpoint temperature, precipitation (daily only), solar radiation, wind speed, and relative humidity. These are available on either 3 or 6 h timescales over the period 1979-2016. The resulting bias-adjusted dataset is available through the Climate Data Store (CDS) of the Copernicus Climate Change Data Store (C3S) and can be accessed at present from ftp://ecem.climate.copernicus.eu. The benefit of performing bias adjustment is demonstrated by comparing initial and bias-adjusted ERA-Interim data against gridded observational fields.

Seasonal change of topology and resilience of ecological networks in wetlandscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bin, Kim; Park, Jeryang

2017-04-01

Wetlands distributed in a landscape provide various ecosystem services including habitat for flora and fauna, hydrologic controls, and biogeochemical processes. Hydrologic regime of each wetland at a given landscape varies by hydro-climatic and geological conditions as well as the bathymetry, forming a certain pattern in the wetland area distribution and spatial organization. However, its large-scale pattern also changes over time as this wetland complex is subject to stochastic hydro-climatic forcing in various temporal scales. Consequently, temporal variation in the spatial structure of wetlands inevitably affects the dispersal ability of species depending on those wetlands as habitat. Here, we numerically show (1) the spatiotemporal variation of wetlandscapes by forcing seasonally changing stochastic rainfall and (2) the corresponding ecological networks which either deterministically or stochastically forming the dispersal ranges. We selected four vernal pool regions with distinct climate conditions in California. The results indicate that the spatial structure of wetlands in a landscape by measuring the wetland area frequency distribution changes by seasonal hydro-climatic condition but eventually recovers to the initial state. However, the corresponding ecological networks, which the structure and function change by the change of distances between wetlands, and measured by degree distribution and network efficiency, may not recover to the initial state especially in the regions with high seasonal dryness index. Moreover, we observed that the changes in both the spatial structure of wetlands in a landscape and the corresponding ecological networks exhibit hysteresis over seasons. Our analysis indicates that the hydrologic and ecological resilience of a wetlandcape may be low in a dry region with seasonal hydro-climatic forcing. Implications of these results for modelling ecological networks depending on hydrologic systems especially for conservation purposes are discussed.

Impacts of boundary condition changes on regional climate projections over West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jee Hee; Kim, Yeonjoo; Wang, Guiling

2017-06-01

Future projections using regional climate models (RCMs) are driven with boundary conditions (BCs) typically derived from global climate models. Understanding the impact of the various BCs on regional climate projections is critical for characterizing their robustness and uncertainties. In this study, the International Center for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model Version 4 (RegCM4) is used to investigate the impact of different aspects of boundary conditions, including lateral BCs and sea surface temperature (SST), on projected future changes of regional climate in West Africa, and BCs from the coupled European Community-Hamburg Atmospheric Model 5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model are used as an example. Historical, future, and several sensitivity experiments are conducted with various combinations of BCs and CO2 concentration, and differences among the experiments are compared to identify the most important drivers for RCMs. When driven by changes in all factors, the RegCM4-produced future climate changes include significantly drier conditions in Sahel and wetter conditions along the Guinean coast. Changes in CO2 concentration within the RCM domain alone or changes in wind vectors at the domain boundaries alone have minor impact on projected future climate changes. Changes in the atmospheric humidity alone at the domain boundaries lead to a wetter Sahel due to the northward migration of rain belts during summer. This impact, although significant, is offset and dominated by changes of other BC factors (primarily temperature) that cause a drying signal. Future changes of atmospheric temperature at the domain boundaries combined with SST changes over oceans are sufficient to cause a future climate that closely resembles the projection that accounts for all factors combined. Therefore, climate variability and changes simulated by RCMs depend primarily on the variability and change of temperature aspects of the RCM BCs. Moreover, it is found that the response of the RCM climate to different climate change factors is roughly linear in that the projected changes driven by combined factors are close to the sum of projected changes due to each individual factor alone at least for long-term averages. Findings from this study are important for understanding the source(s) of uncertainties in regional climate projections and for designing innovative approaches to climate downscaling and impact assessment.

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, uppermore » basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.« less

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

DOE PAGES

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; ...

2017-04-24

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, uppermore » basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.« less

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, Erick R.; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; Manga, Michael; Williams, Colin F.; Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-04-01

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, upper basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

Thermal effect of climate change on groundwater-fed ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Erick; Zhu, Yonghui; Zhan, Hongbin; Manga, Michael; Williams, Colin F.; Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Dunham, Jason B.

2017-01-01

Groundwater temperature changes will lag surface temperature changes from a changing climate. Steady state solutions of the heat-transport equations are used to identify key processes that control the long-term thermal response of springs and other groundwater discharge to climate change, in particular changes in (1) groundwater recharge rate and temperature and (2) land-surface temperature transmitted through the vadose zone. Transient solutions are developed to estimate the time required for new thermal signals to arrive at ecosystems. The solution is applied to the volcanic Medicine Lake highlands, California, USA, and associated springs complexes that host groundwater-dependent ecosystems. In this system, upper basin groundwater temperatures are strongly affected only by recharge conditions. However, as the vadose zone thins away from the highlands, changes in the average annual land-surface temperature also influence groundwater temperatures. Transient response to temperature change depends on both the conductive time scale and the rate at which recharge delivers heat. Most of the thermal response of groundwater at high elevations will occur within 20 years of a shift in recharge temperatures, but the large lower elevation springs will respond more slowly, with about half of the conductive response occurring within the first 20 years and about half of the advective response to higher recharge temperatures occurring in approximately 60 years.

Geographic variation in opinions on climate change at state and local scales in the USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howe, Peter D.; Mildenberger, Matto; Marlon, Jennifer R.; Leiserowitz, Anthony

2015-06-01

Addressing climate change in the United States requires enactment of national, state and local mitigation and adaptation policies. The success of these initiatives depends on public opinion, policy support and behaviours at appropriate scales. Public opinion, however, is typically measured with national surveys that obscure geographic variability across regions, states and localities. Here we present independently validated high-resolution opinion estimates using a multilevel regression and poststratification model. The model accurately predicts climate change beliefs, risk perceptions and policy preferences at the state, congressional district, metropolitan and county levels, using a concise set of demographic and geographic predictors. The analysis finds substantial variation in public opinion across the nation. Nationally, 63% of Americans believe global warming is happening, but county-level estimates range from 43 to 80%, leading to a diversity of political environments for climate policy. These estimates provide an important new source of information for policymakers, educators and scientists to more effectively address the challenges of climate change.

Climate-change impact on the 20th-century relationship between the Southern Annular Mode and global mean temperature

PubMed Central

Wang, Guojian; Cai, Wenju

2013-01-01

The positive phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) increases global mean temperature, and contributes to a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the dominant mode of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. This interannual relationship of a high global mean temperature associated with a negative SAM, however, is opposite to the relationship between their trends under greenhouse warming. We show that over much of the 20th century this relationship undergoes multidecadal fluctuations depending on the intensity of ENSO. During the period 1925–1955, subdued ENSO activities weakened the relationship. However, a similar weakening has occurred since the late 1970s despite the strong ENSO. We demonstrate that this recent weakening is induced by climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Our result highlights a rare situation in which climate change signals emerge against an opposing property of interannual variability, underscoring the robustness of the recent climate change. PMID:23784087

Time-varying nonstationary multivariate risk analysis using a dynamic Bayesian copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, Ali; Burn, Donald H.; Concepción Ausín, María.; Wiper, Michael P.

2016-03-01

A time-varying risk analysis is proposed for an adaptive design framework in nonstationary conditions arising from climate change. A Bayesian, dynamic conditional copula is developed for modeling the time-varying dependence structure between mixed continuous and discrete multiattributes of multidimensional hydrometeorological phenomena. Joint Bayesian inference is carried out to fit the marginals and copula in an illustrative example using an adaptive, Gibbs Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. Posterior mean estimates and credible intervals are provided for the model parameters and the Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) is used to select the model that best captures different forms of nonstationarity over time. This study also introduces a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period for multivariate time-dependent risk analysis in nonstationary environments. The results demonstrate that the nature and the risk of extreme-climate multidimensional processes are changed over time under the impact of climate change, and accordingly the long-term decision making strategies should be updated based on the anomalies of the nonstationary environment.

Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, A. H.; Daniel, J. S.; Portmann, R. W.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Young, P. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Rosenlof, K. H.

2016-06-01

Due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions of ozone-depleting substances, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control the evolution of total column and stratospheric ozone by the latter half of the 21st century. As the world proceeds down the path of reducing climate forcing set forth by the 2015 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), a broad range of ozone changes are possible depending on future policies enacted. While decreases in tropical stratospheric ozone will likely persist regardless of the future emissions scenario, extratropical ozone could either remain weakly depleted or even increase well above historical levels, with diverse implication for ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The ozone layer’s dependence on future emissions of these gases creates a complex policy decision space for protecting humans and ecosystems, which includes unexpected options such as accepting nitrous oxide emissions in order to maintain historical column ozone and surface UV levels.

Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change.

PubMed

Langham, Gary M; Schuetz, Justin G; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U; Wilsey, Chad

2015-01-01

Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation.

Conservation Status of North American Birds in the Face of Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Langham, Gary M.; Schuetz, Justin G.; Distler, Trisha; Soykan, Candan U.; Wilsey, Chad

2015-01-01

Human-induced climate change is increasingly recognized as a fundamental driver of biological processes and patterns. Historic climate change is known to have caused shifts in the geographic ranges of many taxa and future climate change is expected to result in even greater redistributions of species. As a result, predicting the impact of climate change on future patterns of biodiversity will greatly aid conservation planning. Using the North American Breeding Bird Survey and Audubon Christmas Bird Count, two of the most comprehensive continental datasets of vertebrates in the world, and correlative distribution modeling, we assessed geographic range shifts for 588 North American bird species during both the breeding and non-breeding seasons under a range of future emission scenarios (SRES A2, A1B, B2) through the end of the century. Here we show that 314 species (53%) are projected to lose more than half of their current geographic range across three scenarios of climate change through the end of the century. For 126 species, loss occurs without concomitant range expansion; whereas for 188 species, loss is coupled with potential to colonize new replacement range. We found no strong associations between projected climate sensitivities and existing conservation prioritizations. Moreover, species responses were not clearly associated with habitat affinities, migration strategies, or climate change scenarios. Our results demonstrate the need to include climate sensitivity into current conservation planning and to develop adaptive management strategies that accommodate shrinking and shifting geographic ranges. The persistence of many North American birds will depend on their ability to colonize climatically suitable areas outside of current ranges and management actions that target climate adaptation. PMID:26333202

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species.

PubMed

Wiens, John J

2016-12-01

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the "warm edges" of species' ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades.

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species

PubMed Central

Wiens, John J.

2016-01-01

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on the details of how species respond to changing climates. For example, if most species can undergo rapid change in their climatic niches, then extinctions may be limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts in the geographic ranges of species that were inferred to be related to climate change, especially shifts towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many of these studies contain valuable data on extinctions of local populations that have not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range shifts can include range contractions at the “warm edges” of species’ ranges (i.e., lower latitudes and elevations), contractions which occur through local extinctions. Here, data on climate-related range shifts were used to test the frequency of local extinctions related to recent climate change. The results show that climate-related local extinctions have already occurred in hundreds of species, including 47% of the 976 species surveyed. This frequency of local extinctions was broadly similar across climatic zones, clades, and habitats but was significantly higher in tropical species than in temperate species (55% versus 39%), in animals than in plants (50% versus 39%), and in freshwater habitats relative to terrestrial and marine habitats (74% versus 46% versus 51%). Overall, these results suggest that local extinctions related to climate change are already widespread, even though levels of climate change so far are modest relative to those predicted in the next 100 years. These extinctions will presumably become much more prevalent as global warming increases further by roughly 2-fold to 5-fold over the coming decades. PMID:27930674

Climate change and Australian agriculture: a review of the threats facing rural communities and the health policy landscape.

PubMed

Hanna, Elizabeth G; Bell, Erica; King, Debra; Woodruff, Rosalie

2011-03-01

Population health is a function of social and environmental health determinants. Climate change is predicted to bring significant alterations to ecological systems on which human health and livelihoods depend; the air, water, plant, and animal health. Agricultural systems are intrinsically linked with environmental conditions, which are already under threat in much of southern Australian because of rising heat and protracted drying. The direct impact of increasing heat waves on human physiology and survival has recently been well studied. More diffusely, increasing drought periods may challenge the viability of agriculture in some regions, and hence those communities that depend on primary production. A worst case scenario may herald the collapse of some communities. Human health impacts arising from such transition would be profound. This article summarizes existing rural health challenges and presents the current evidence plus future predictions of climate change impacts on Australian agriculture to argue the need for significant augmentation of public health and existing health policy frameworks. The article concludes by suggesting that adaptation to climate change requires planning for worst case scenario outcomes to avert catastrophic impacts on rural communities. This will involve national policy planning as much as regional-level leadership for rapid development of adaptive strategies in agriculture and other key areas of rural communities.

Food security in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pulwarty, Roger; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James

2012-01-01

By 2080 the effects of climate change—on heat waves, floods, sea level rise, and drought—could push an additional 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion. The precise impacts will, however, strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions such as local markets and food import dependence. In the near term, two factors are also changing the nature of food security: (1) rapid urbanization, with the proportion of the global population living in urban areas expanding from 13 percent in 1975 to greater than 50 percent at present, and (2) trade and domestic market liberalization since 1993, which has promoted removal of import controls, deregulation of prices, and the loss of preferential markets for many small economies. Over the last two years, the worst drought in decades has devastated eastern Africa. The resulting food-security crisis has affected roughly 13 million people and has reminded us that there is still a long way to go in addressing current climate-related risks. In the face of such profound changes and uncertainties, our approaches to food security must evolve. In this article, we describe four key elements that, in our view, will be essential to the success of efforts to address the linked challenges of food security and climate change.

Testing for effects of climate change on competitive relationships and coexistence between two bird species.

PubMed

Stenseth, Nils Chr; Durant, Joël M; Fowler, Mike S; Matthysen, Erik; Adriaensen, Frank; Jonzén, Niclas; Chan, Kung-Sik; Liu, Hai; De Laet, Jenny; Sheldon, Ben C; Visser, Marcel E; Dhondt, André A

2015-05-22

Climate change is expected to have profound ecological effects, yet shifts in competitive abilities among species are rarely studied in this context. Blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) and great tits (Parus major) compete for food and roosting sites, yet coexist across much of their range. Climate change might thus change the competitive relationships and coexistence between these two species. Analysing four of the highest-quality, long-term datasets available on these species across Europe, we extend the textbook example of coexistence between competing species to include the dynamic effects of long-term climate variation. Using threshold time-series statistical modelling, we demonstrate that long-term climate variation affects species demography through different influences on density-dependent and density-independent processes. The competitive interaction between blue tits and great tits has shifted in one of the studied sites, creating conditions that alter the relative equilibrium densities between the two species, potentially disrupting long-term coexistence. Our analyses show that long-term climate change can, but does not always, generate local differences in the equilibrium conditions of spatially structured species assemblages. We demonstrate how long-term data can be used to better understand whether (and how), for instance, climate change might change the relationships between coexisting species. However, the studied populations are rather robust against competitive exclusion. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Bridging Climate Change Resilience and Mitigation in the Electricity Sector Through Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Emerging Climate Change and Development Topics for Energy Sector Transformation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cox, Sarah L; Hotchkiss, Elizabeth L; Bilello, Daniel E

Reliable, safe, and secure electricity is essential for economic and social development and a necessary input for many sectors of the economy. However, electricity generation and associated processes make up a significant portion of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to climate change. Furthermore, electricity systems are vulnerable to climate change impacts - both short-term events and changes over the longer term. This vulnerability presents both near-term and chronic challenges in providing reliable, affordable, equitable, and sustainable energy services. Within this context, developing countries face a number of challenges in the energy sector, including the need to reliably meet growingmore » electricity demand, lessen dependence on imported fuels, expand energy access, and improve stressed infrastructure for fuel supply and electricity transmission. Energy efficiency (EE) and renewable energy (RE) technical solutions described in this paper can bridge action across climate change mitigation and resilience through reducing GHG emissions and supporting electric power sector adaptation to increasing climate risk. Integrated planning approaches, also highlighted in this paper, play an integral role in bringing together mitigation and resilience action under broader frameworks. Through supporting EE and RE deployment and integrated planning approaches, unique to specific national and local circumstances, countries can design and implement policies, strategies, and sectoral plans that unite development priorities, climate change mitigation, and resilience.« less

Predicting ecosystem shifts requires new approaches that integrate the effects of climate change across entire systems

PubMed Central

Russell, Bayden D.; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Wernberg, Thomas; Mieszkowska, Nova; Widdicombe, Stephen; Hall-Spencer, Jason M.; Connell, Sean D.

2012-01-01

Most studies that forecast the ecological consequences of climate change target a single species and a single life stage. Depending on climatic impacts on other life stages and on interacting species, however, the results from simple experiments may not translate into accurate predictions of future ecological change. Research needs to move beyond simple experimental studies and environmental envelope projections for single species towards identifying where ecosystem change is likely to occur and the drivers for this change. For this to happen, we advocate research directions that (i) identify the critical species within the target ecosystem, and the life stage(s) most susceptible to changing conditions and (ii) the key interactions between these species and components of their broader ecosystem. A combined approach using macroecology, experimentally derived data and modelling that incorporates energy budgets in life cycle models may identify critical abiotic conditions that disproportionately alter important ecological processes under forecasted climates. PMID:21900317

Considerations of Socio-Economic and Global Change Effects on Eurasian Steppes Ecosystem and Land-Atmosphere Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ojima, D. S.; Chuluun, T.; Temirbekov, S. S.; Mahowald, N.; Hicke, J.

2004-12-01

Dramatic changes occurred in pastoral systems of Eurasia ranging from Mongolia, China and Central Asia for the past decades. Recently, evaluation of the pastoral systems has been conducted in the region. Pastoral systems, where humans depend on livestock, exist largely in arid or semi-arid ecosystems where climate is highly variable. Interaction between ecosystems and nomadic land use systems co-shaped them in mutual adaptive ways for hundreds of years, thus making both the Mongolian rangeland ecosystem and nomadic pastoral system resilient and sustainable. Current changes in environmental conditions are affecting land-atmosphere interactions. Regional dust events, changes in hydrological cycle, and land use changes contribute to changing interactions between ecosystem and landscape processes which affect regional climate. The general trend involves greater intensification of resource exploitation at the expense of traditional patterns of extensive range utilization. This set of drivers is orthogonal to the above described climate drivers. Thus we expect climate-land use-land cover relationships to be crucially modified by the socio-economic forces.

Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Fitchett, Jennifer M.

2016-01-01

Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45 % of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10 % of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.

Caribbean Heat Threatens Health, Well-being and the Future of Humanity.

PubMed

Macpherson, Cheryl C; Akpinar-Elci, Muge

2015-07-01

Climate change has substantial impacts on public health and safety, disease risks and the provision of health care, with the poor being particularly disadvantaged. Management of the associated health risks and changing health service requirements requires adequate responses at local levels. Health-care providers are central to these responses. While climate change raises ethical questions about its causes, impacts and social justice, medicine and bioethics typically focus on individual patients and research participants rather than these broader issues. We broaden this focus by examining awareness among health-care providers in the Caribbean region, where geographic and socioeconomic features pose particular vulnerabilities to climate change. In focus groups, Caribbean providers described rises in mosquito-borne, flood-related, heat-related, respiratory and mental illnesses, and attributed these to local impacts of climate change. Their discussions showed that the significance of these impacts differs in different Caribbean nations, raising policy and social justice questions. Bioethics and public health ethics are situated to frame, inform and initiate public and policy dialog about values and scientific evidence associated with climate change. We urge readers to initiate such dialog within their own institutions about the context-dependent nature of the burdens of climate change, and values and policies that permit it to worsen.

Caribbean Heat Threatens Health, Well-being and the Future of Humanity

PubMed Central

Macpherson, Cheryl C.; Akpinar-Elci, Muge

2015-01-01

Climate change has substantial impacts on public health and safety, disease risks and the provision of health care, with the poor being particularly disadvantaged. Management of the associated health risks and changing health service requirements requires adequate responses at local levels. Health-care providers are central to these responses. While climate change raises ethical questions about its causes, impacts and social justice, medicine and bioethics typically focus on individual patients and research participants rather than these broader issues. We broaden this focus by examining awareness among health-care providers in the Caribbean region, where geographic and socioeconomic features pose particular vulnerabilities to climate change. In focus groups, Caribbean providers described rises in mosquito-borne, flood-related, heat-related, respiratory and mental illnesses, and attributed these to local impacts of climate change. Their discussions showed that the significance of these impacts differs in different Caribbean nations, raising policy and social justice questions. Bioethics and public health ethics are situated to frame, inform and initiate public and policy dialog about values and scientific evidence associated with climate change. We urge readers to initiate such dialog within their own institutions about the context-dependent nature of the burdens of climate change, and values and policies that permit it to worsen. PMID:26180551

Long-term trends in tourism climate index scores for 40 stations across Iran: the role of climate change and influence on tourism sustainability.

PubMed

Roshan, Gholamreza; Yousefi, Robabe; Fitchett, Jennifer M

2016-01-01

Tourism is a rapidly growing international sector and relies intrinsically on an amenable climate to attract visitors. Climate change is likely to influence the locations preferred by tourists and the time of year of peak travel. This study investigates the effect of climate change on the Tourism Climate Index (TCI) for Iran. The paper first calculates the monthly TCI for 40 cities across Iran for each year from 1961 to 2010. Changes in the TCI over the study period for each of the cities are then explored. Increases in TCI are observed for at least one station in each month, whilst for some months no decreases occurred. For October, the maximum of 45% of stations demonstrated significant changes in TCI, whilst for December only 10% of stations demonstrated change. The stations Kashan, Orumiyeh, Shahrekord, Tabriz, Torbat-e-Heidarieh and Zahedan experienced significant increases in TCI for over 6 months. The beginning of the change in TCI is calculated to have occurred from 1970 to 1980 for all stations. Given the economic dependence on oil exports, the development of sustainable tourism in Iran is of importance. This critically requires the identification of locations most suitable for tourism, now and in the future, to guide strategic investment.

Predicting Vulnerabilities of North American Shorebirds to Climate Change

PubMed Central

Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W.; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J. Michael

2014-01-01

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at–risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners–in–Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower–risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change. PMID:25268907

Predicting vulnerabilities of North American shorebirds to climate change.

PubMed

Galbraith, Hector; DesRochers, David W; Brown, Stephen; Reed, J Michael

2014-01-01

Despite an increase in conservation efforts for shorebirds, there are widespread declines of many species of North American shorebirds. We wanted to know whether these declines would be exacerbated by climate change, and whether relatively secure species might become at-risk species. Virtually all of the shorebird species breeding in the USA and Canada are migratory, which means climate change could affect extinction risk via changes on the breeding, wintering, and/or migratory refueling grounds, and that ecological synchronicities could be disrupted at multiple sites. To predict the effects of climate change on shorebird extinction risks, we created a categorical risk model complementary to that used by Partners-in-Flight and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plan. The model is based on anticipated changes in breeding, migration, and wintering habitat, degree of dependence on ecological synchronicities, migration distance, and degree of specialization on breeding, migration, or wintering habitat. We evaluated 49 species, and for 3 species we evaluated 2 distinct populations each, and found that 47 (90%) taxa are predicted to experience an increase in risk of extinction. No species was reclassified into a lower-risk category, although 6 species had at least one risk factor decrease in association with climate change. The number of species that changed risk categories in our assessment is sensitive to how much of an effect of climate change is required to cause the shift, but even at its least sensitive, 20 species were at the highest risk category for extinction. Based on our results it appears that shorebirds are likely to be highly vulnerable to climate change. Finally, we discuss both how our approach can be integrated with existing risk assessments and potential future directions for predicting change in extinction risk due to climate change.

Multivariate bias adjustment of high-dimensional climate simulations: the Rank Resampling for Distributions and Dependences (R2D2) bias correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vrac, Mathieu

2018-06-01

Climate simulations often suffer from statistical biases with respect to observations or reanalyses. It is therefore common to correct (or adjust) those simulations before using them as inputs into impact models. However, most bias correction (BC) methods are univariate and so do not account for the statistical dependences linking the different locations and/or physical variables of interest. In addition, they are often deterministic, and stochasticity is frequently needed to investigate climate uncertainty and to add constrained randomness to climate simulations that do not possess a realistic variability. This study presents a multivariate method of rank resampling for distributions and dependences (R2D2) bias correction allowing one to adjust not only the univariate distributions but also their inter-variable and inter-site dependence structures. Moreover, the proposed R2D2 method provides some stochasticity since it can generate as many multivariate corrected outputs as the number of statistical dimensions (i.e., number of grid cell × number of climate variables) of the simulations to be corrected. It is based on an assumption of stability in time of the dependence structure - making it possible to deal with a high number of statistical dimensions - that lets the climate model drive the temporal properties and their changes in time. R2D2 is applied on temperature and precipitation reanalysis time series with respect to high-resolution reference data over the southeast of France (1506 grid cell). Bivariate, 1506-dimensional and 3012-dimensional versions of R2D2 are tested over a historical period and compared to a univariate BC. How the different BC methods behave in a climate change context is also illustrated with an application to regional climate simulations over the 2071-2100 period. The results indicate that the 1d-BC basically reproduces the climate model multivariate properties, 2d-R2D2 is only satisfying in the inter-variable context, 1506d-R2D2 strongly improves inter-site properties and 3012d-R2D2 is able to account for both. Applications of the proposed R2D2 method to various climate datasets are relevant for many impact studies. The perspectives of improvements are numerous, such as introducing stochasticity in the dependence itself, questioning its stability assumption, and accounting for temporal properties adjustment while including more physics in the adjustment procedures.

Projecting species’ vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R.; Skagen, Susan K.; Ray, Andrea J.; Noon, Barry R

2017-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

Projecting the Global Distribution of the Emerging Amphibian Fungal Pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Based on IPCC Climate Futures

PubMed Central

Olson, Deanna H.; Blaustein, Andrew R.

2016-01-01

Projected changes in climate conditions are emerging as significant risk factors to numerous species, affecting habitat conditions and community interactions. Projections suggest species range shifts in response to climate change modifying environmental suitability and is supported by observational evidence. Both pathogens and their hosts can shift ranges with climate change. We consider how climate change may influence the distribution of the emerging infectious amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), a pathogen associated with worldwide amphibian population losses. Using an expanded global Bd database and a novel modeling approach, we examined a broad set of climate metrics to model the Bd-climate niche globally and regionally, then project how climate change may influence Bd distributions. Previous research showed that Bd distribution is dependent on climatic variables, in particular temperature. We trained a machine-learning model (random forest) with the most comprehensive global compilation of Bd sampling records (~5,000 site-level records, mid-2014 summary), including 13 climatic variables. We projected future Bd environmental suitability under IPCC scenarios. The learning model was trained with combined worldwide data (non-region specific) and also separately per region (region-specific). One goal of our study was to estimate of how Bd spatial risks may change under climate change based on the best available data. Our models supported differences in Bd-climate relationships among geographic regions. We projected that Bd ranges will shift into higher latitudes and altitudes due to increased environmental suitability in those regions under predicted climate change. Specifically, our model showed a broad expansion of areas environmentally suitable for establishment of Bd on amphibian hosts in the temperate zones of the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections are useful for the development of monitoring designs in these areas, especially for sensitive species and those vulnerable to multiple threats. PMID:27513565

Projecting species' vulnerability to climate change: Which uncertainty sources matter most and extrapolate best?

PubMed

Steen, Valerie; Sofaer, Helen R; Skagen, Susan K; Ray, Andrea J; Noon, Barry R

2017-11-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are commonly used to assess potential climate change impacts on biodiversity, but several critical methodological decisions are often made arbitrarily. We compare variability arising from these decisions to the uncertainty in future climate change itself. We also test whether certain choices offer improved skill for extrapolating to a changed climate and whether internal cross-validation skill indicates extrapolative skill. We compared projected vulnerability for 29 wetland-dependent bird species breeding in the climatically dynamic Prairie Pothole Region, USA. For each species we built 1,080 SDMs to represent a unique combination of: future climate, class of climate covariates, collinearity level, and thresholding procedure. We examined the variation in projected vulnerability attributed to each uncertainty source. To assess extrapolation skill under a changed climate, we compared model predictions with observations from historic drought years. Uncertainty in projected vulnerability was substantial, and the largest source was that of future climate change. Large uncertainty was also attributed to climate covariate class with hydrological covariates projecting half the range loss of bioclimatic covariates or other summaries of temperature and precipitation. We found that choices based on performance in cross-validation improved skill in extrapolation. Qualitative rankings were also highly uncertain. Given uncertainty in projected vulnerability and resulting uncertainty in rankings used for conservation prioritization, a number of considerations appear critical for using bioclimatic SDMs to inform climate change mitigation strategies. Our results emphasize explicitly selecting climate summaries that most closely represent processes likely to underlie ecological response to climate change. For example, hydrological covariates projected substantially reduced vulnerability, highlighting the importance of considering whether water availability may be a more proximal driver than precipitation. However, because cross-validation results were correlated with extrapolation results, the use of cross-validation performance metrics to guide modeling choices where knowledge is limited was supported.

[Climate change - physical and mental consequences].

PubMed

Bunz, Maxie; Mücke, Hans-Guido

2017-06-01

Climate change has already had a large influence on the human environmental system and directly or indirectly affects physical and mental health. Triggered by extreme meteorological conditions, for example, storms, floods, earth slides and heat periods, the direct consequences range from illnesses to serious accidents with injuries, or in extreme cases fatalities. Indirectly, a changed environment due to climate change affects, amongst other things, the cardiovascular system and respiratory tract, and can also cause allergies and infectious diseases. In addition, increasing confrontation with environmental impacts may cause negative psychological effects such as posttraumatic stress disorders and anxiety, but also aggression, distress and depressive symptoms. The extent and severity of the health consequences depend on individual pre-disposition, resilience, behaviour and adaptation.

Linking climate change projections for an Alaskan watershed to future coho salmon production.

PubMed

Leppi, Jason C; Rinella, Daniel J; Wilson, Ryan R; Loya, Wendy M

2014-06-01

Climate change is predicted to dramatically change hydrologic processes across Alaska, but estimates of how these impacts will influence specific watersheds and aquatic species are lacking. Here, we linked climate, hydrology, and habitat models within a coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) population model to assess how projected climate change could affect survival at each freshwater life stage and, in turn, production of coho salmon smolts in three subwatersheds of the Chuitna (Chuit) River watershed, Alaska. Based on future climate scenarios and projections from a three-dimensional hydrology model, we simulated coho smolt production over a 20-year span at the end of the century (2080-2100). The direction (i.e., positive vs. negative) and magnitude of changes in smolt production varied substantially by climate scenario and subwatershed. Projected smolt production decreased in all three subwatersheds under the minimum air temperature and maximum precipitation scenario due to elevated peak flows and a resulting 98% reduction in egg-to-fry survival. In contrast, the maximum air temperature and minimum precipitation scenario led to an increase in smolt production in all three subwatersheds through an increase in fry survival. Other climate change scenarios led to mixed responses, with projected smolt production increasing and decreasing in different subwatersheds. Our analysis highlights the complexity inherent in predicting climate-change-related impacts to salmon populations and demonstrates that population effects may depend on interactions between the relative magnitude of hydrologic and thermal changes and their interactions with features of the local habitat. © 2013 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

Only an integrated approach across academia, enterprise, governments, and global agencies can tackle the public health impact of climate change

PubMed Central

Stordalen, Gunhild A.; Rocklöv, Joacim; Nilsson, Maria; Byass, Peter

2013-01-01

Background Despite considerable global attention to the issues of climate change, relatively little priority has been given to the likely effects on human health of current and future changes in the global climate. We identify three major societal determinants that influence the impact of climate change on human health, namely the application of scholarship and knowledge; economic and commercial considerations; and actions of governments and global agencies. Discussion The three major areas are each discussed in terms of the ways in which they facilitate and frustrate attempts to protect human health from the effects of climate change. Academia still pays very little attention to the effects of climate on health in poorer countries. Enterprise is starting to recognise that healthy commerce depends on healthy people, and so climate change presents long-term threats if it compromises health. Governments and international agencies are very active, but often face immovable vested interests in other sectors. Overall, there tends to be too little interaction between the three areas, and this means that potential synergies and co-benefits are not always realised. Conclusion More attention from academia, enterprise, and international agencies needs to be given to the potential threats the climate change presents to human health. However, there needs to also be much closer collaboration between all three areas in order to capitalise on possible synergies that can be achieved between them. PMID:23653920

Vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related fire impacts in rural and urban interior Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trainor, Sarah F.; Calef, Monika; Natcher, David; Chapin, F. Stuart; McGuire, A. David; Huntington, Orville; Duffy, Paul A.; Rupp, T. Scott; DeWilde, La'Ona; Kwart, Mary; Fresco, Nancy; Lovecraft, Amy Lauren

2009-01-01

This paper explores whether fundamental differences exist between urban and rural vulnerability to climate-induced changes in the fire regime of interior Alaska. We further examine how communities and fire managers have responded to these changes and what additional adaptations could be put in place. We engage a variety of social science methods, including demographic analysis, semi-structured interviews, surveys, workshops and observations of public meetings. This work is part of an interdisciplinary study of feedback and interactions between climate, vegetation, fire and human components of the Boreal forest social–ecological system of interior Alaska. We have learned that although urban and rural communities in interior Alaska face similar increased exposure to wildfire as a result of climate change, important differences exist in their sensitivity to these biophysical, climate-induced changes. In particular, reliance on wild foods, delayed suppression response, financial resources and institutional connections vary between urban and rural communities. These differences depend largely on social, economic and institutional factors, and are not necessarily related to biophysical climate impacts per se. Fire management and suppression action motivated by political, economic or other pressures can serve as unintentional or indirect adaptation to climate change. However, this indirect response alone may not sufficiently reduce vulnerability to a changing fire regime. More deliberate and strategic responses may be required, given the magnitude of the expected climate change and the likelihood of an intensification of the fire regime in interior Alaska.

Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCusker, K. E.; Kushner, P. J.; Fyfe, J. C.; Sigmond, M.; Kharin, V. V.; Bitz, C. M.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice loss may influence midlatitude climate by changing large-scale circulation. The extent to which climate change can be understood as greenhouse gas-induced changes that are modulated by this loss depends on how additive the responses to the separate influences are. A novel sea ice nudging methodology in a fully coupled climate model reveals that the separate effects of doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and associated Arctic sea ice loss are remarkably additive and insensitive to the mean climate state. This separability is evident in several fields throughout most of the year, from hemispheric to synoptic scales. The extent to which the regional response to sea ice loss sometimes agrees with and sometimes cancels the response to CO2 is quantified. The separability of the responses might provide a means to better interpret the diverse array of modeling and observational studies of Arctic change and influence.

The impact of climate change on the epidemiology and control of Rift Valley fever.

PubMed

Martin, V; Chevalier, V; Ceccato, P; Anyamba, A; De Simone, L; Lubroth, J; de La Rocque, S; Domenech, J

2008-08-01

Climate change is likely to change the frequency of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, floods, droughts and hurricanes, and may destabilise and weaken the ecosystem services upon which human society depends. Climate change is also expected to affect animal, human and plant health via indirect pathways: it is likely that the geography of infectious diseases and pests will be altered, including the distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as Rift Valley fever, yellow fever, malaria and dengue, which are highly sensitive to climatic conditions. Extreme weather events might then create the necessary conditions for Rift Valley fever to expand its geographical range northwards and cross the Mediterranean and Arabian seas, with an unexpected impact on the animal and human health of newly affected countries. Strengthening global, regional and national early warning systems is crucial, as are co-ordinated research programmes and subsequent prevention and intervention measures.

How warm days increase belief in global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaval, Lisa; Keenan, Elizabeth A.; Johnson, Eric J.; Weber, Elke U.

2014-02-01

Climate change judgements can depend on whether today seems warmer or colder than usual, termed the local warming effect. Although previous research has demonstrated that this effect occurs, studies have yet to explain why or how temperature abnormalities influence global warming attitudes. A better understanding of the underlying psychology of this effect can help explain the public's reaction to climate change and inform approaches used to communicate the phenomenon. Across five studies, we find evidence of attribute substitution, whereby individuals use less relevant but available information (for example, today's temperature) in place of more diagnostic but less accessible information (for example, global climate change patterns) when making judgements. Moreover, we rule out alternative hypotheses involving climate change labelling and lay mental models. Ultimately, we show that present temperature abnormalities are given undue weight and lead to an overestimation of the frequency of similar past events, thereby increasing belief in and concern for global warming.

Northward shifts of the distributions of Spanish reptiles in association with climate change.

PubMed

Moreno-Rueda, Gregorio; Pleguezuelos, Juan M; Pizarro, Manuel; Montori, Albert

2012-04-01

It is predicted that climate change will drive extinctions of some reptiles and that the number of these extinctions will depend on whether reptiles are able to change their distribution. Whether the latitudinal distribution of reptiles may change in response to increases in temperature is unknown. We used data on reptile distributions collected during the 20th century to analyze whether changes in the distributions of reptiles in Spain are associated with increases in temperature. We controlled for biases in sampling effort and found a mean, statistically significant, northward shift of the northern extent of reptile distributions of about 15.2 km from 1940-1975 to 1991-2005. The southern extent of the distributions did not change significantly. Thus, our results suggest that the latitudinal distributions of reptiles may be changing in response to climate change. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

Climate change overruns resilience conferred by temperature-dependent sex determination in sea turtles and threatens their survival.

PubMed

Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Genovart, Meritxell; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R; Oro, Daniel

2015-08-01

Temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD) is the predominant form of environmental sex determination (ESD) in reptiles, but the adaptive significance of TSD in this group remains unclear. Additionally, the viability of species with TSD may be compromised as climate gets warmer. We simulated population responses in a turtle with TSD to increasing nest temperatures and compared the results to those of a virtual population with genotypic sex determination (GSD) and fixed sex ratios. Then, we assessed the effectiveness of TSD as a mechanism to maintain populations under climate change scenarios. TSD populations were more resilient to increased nest temperatures and mitigated the negative effects of high temperatures by increasing production of female offspring and therefore, future fecundity. That buffered the negative effect of temperature on the population growth. TSD provides an evolutionary advantage to sea turtles. However, this mechanism was only effective over a range of temperatures and will become inefficient as temperatures rise to levels projected by current climate change models. Projected global warming threatens survival of sea turtles, and the IPCC high gas concentration scenario may result in extirpation of the studied population in 50 years. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Accounting for adaptive capacity and uncertainty in assessments of species’ climate-change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wade, Alisa A.; Hand, Brian K.; Kovach, Ryan; Luikart, Gordon; Whited, Diane; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

2016-01-01

Climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) are valuable tools for assessing species’ vulnerability to climatic changes, yet failure to include measures of adaptive capacity and to account for sources of uncertainty may limit their effectiveness. Here, we provide a more comprehensive CCVA approach that incorporates all three elements used for assessing species’ climate change vulnerability: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We illustrate our approach using case studies of two threatened salmonids with different life histories – anadromous steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and non-anadromous bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) – within the Columbia River Basin, USA. We identified general patterns of high vulnerability in low-elevation and southernmost habitats for both species. However, vulnerability rankings varied widely depending on the factors (climate, habitat, demographic, and genetic) included in the CCVA and often differed for the two species at locations where they were sympatric. Our findings illustrate that CCVA results are highly sensitive to data inputs and that spatial differences can complicate multi-species conservation. Our results highlight how CCVAs should be considered within a broader conceptual and computational framework for refining hypotheses, guiding research, and comparing plausible scenarios of species’ vulnerability for ongoing and projected climate change.

Persistence of climate changes due to a range of greenhouse gases.

PubMed

Solomon, Susan; Daniel, John S; Sanford, Todd J; Murphy, Daniel M; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Knutti, Reto; Friedlingstein, Pierre

2010-10-26

Emissions of a broad range of greenhouse gases of varying lifetimes contribute to global climate change. Carbon dioxide displays exceptional persistence that renders its warming nearly irreversible for more than 1,000 y. Here we show that the warming due to non-CO(2) greenhouse gases, although not irreversible, persists notably longer than the anthropogenic changes in the greenhouse gas concentrations themselves. We explore why the persistence of warming depends not just on the decay of a given greenhouse gas concentration but also on climate system behavior, particularly the timescales of heat transfer linked to the ocean. For carbon dioxide and methane, nonlinear optical absorption effects also play a smaller but significant role in prolonging the warming. In effect, dampening factors that slow temperature increase during periods of increasing concentration also slow the loss of energy from the Earth's climate system if radiative forcing is reduced. Approaches to climate change mitigation options through reduction of greenhouse gas or aerosol emissions therefore should not be expected to decrease climate change impacts as rapidly as the gas or aerosol lifetime, even for short-lived species; such actions can have their greatest effect if undertaken soon enough to avoid transfer of heat to the deep ocean.

Altitude dependency of future snow cover changes over Central Japan evaluated by a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawase, Hiroaki; Hara, Masayuki; Yoshikane, Takao; Ishizaki, Noriko N.; Uno, Fumichika; Hatsushika, Hiroaki; Kimura, Fujio

2013-11-01

Sea of Japan side of Central Japan is one of the heaviest snowfall areas in the world. We investigate near-future snow cover changes on the Sea of Japan side using a regional climate model. We perform the pseudo global warming (PGW) downscaling based on the five global climate models (GCMs). The changes in snow cover strongly depend on the elevation; decrease in the ratios of snow cover is larger in the lower elevations. The decrease ratios of the maximum accumulated snowfall in the short term, such as 1 day, are smaller than those in the long term, such as 1 week. We conduct the PGW experiments focusing on specific periods when a 2 K warming at 850 hPa is projected by the individual GCMs (PGW-2K85). The PGW-2K85 experiments show different changes in precipitation, resulting in snow cover changes in spite of similar warming conditions. Simplified sensitivity experiments that assume homogenous warming of the atmosphere (2 K) and the sea surface show that the altitude dependency of snow cover changes is similar to that in the PGW-2K85 experiments, while the uncertainty of changes in the sea surface temperature influences the snow cover changes both in the lower and higher elevations. The decrease in snowfall is, however, underestimated in the simplified sensitivity experiments as compared with the PGW experiments. Most GCMs project an increase in dry static stability and some GCMs project an anticyclonic anomaly over Central Japan, indicating the inhibition of precipitation, including snowfall, in the PGW experiments.

Global Change Impacts on Future Fire Regimes: Distinguishing Between Climate-limited vs Ignition-Limited Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.; Syphard, A. D.

2016-12-01

Global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts. Predicting how climates will impact future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned, however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models are needed that predict future seasonal temperature changes if we are to forecast future fire regimes in these forests. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited, and because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science, it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant on some landscapes, but where climate is relevant the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Changes in Landscape Greenness and Climatic Factors over ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Monitoring and quantifying changes in vegetation cover over large areas using remote sensing can be achieved using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), an indicator of greenness. However, distinguishing gradual shifts in NDVI (e.g. climate change) versus direct and rapid changes (e.g., fire, land development) is challenging as changes can be confounded by time-dependent patterns, and variation associated with climatic factors. In the present study we leveraged a method, that we previously developed for a pilot study, to address these confounding factors by evaluating NDVI change using autoregression techniques that compare results from univariate (NDVI vs. time) and multivariate analyses (NDVI vs. time and climatic factors) for ~7,660,636 1-km2 pixels comprising the 48 contiguous states of the USA, over a 25-year period (1989−2013). NDVI changed significantly for 48% of the nation over the 25-year in the univariate analyses where most significant trends (85%) indicated an increase in greenness over time. By including climatic factors in the multivariate analyses of NDVI over time, the detection of significant NDVI trends increased to 53% (an increase of 5%). Comparisons of univariate and multivariate analyses for each pixel showed that less than 4% of the pixels had a significant NDVI trend attributable to gradual climatic changes while the remainder of pixels with a significant NDVI trend indicated that changes were due to direct factors. Whi

A framework to assess the impacts of Climate Change for different hazards at local and regional scale through probabilistic multi-model approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mercogliano, P.; Reder, A.; Rianna, G.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather events (EWEs) are projected to be more frequent and severe across the globe because of global warming. This poses challenging problems for critical infrastructures (CIs) which can be dramatically affected by EWEs needing adaptation countermeasures againts changing climate conditions. In this work, we present the main results achieved in the framework of the FP7-European project INTACT aimed at analyzing the resilience of CIs against shocks and stresses due to the climate changes. To identify variations in the hazard induced by climate change, appropriate Extreme Weather Indicators (EWIs) are defined for several case studies and different approaches are analyzed to obtain local climate projections. The different approaches, with increasing refinement depending on local information available and methodologies selected, are investigated considering raw versus bias corrected data and weighted or equiprobable ensemble mean projections given by the regional climate models within the Euro-CORDEX program. Specifically, this work focuses on two case studies selected from the five proposed within the INTACT project and for which local station data are available: • rainfall-induced landslide affecting Campania region (Southern Italy) with a special view on the Nocera municipality; • storms and heavy rainfall/winds in port of Rotterdam (Netherlands). In general, our results show a small sensitivity to the weighting approach and a large sensitivity to bias-correction in the future projections. For landslides in Campania region, the Euro-CORDEX simulations projected a generalized worsening of the safety conditions depending on the scenario (RCP4.5/8.5) and period (2011-2040/2041-2070/2071-2100) considered. For the port of Rotterdam, the Euro-CORDEX simulations projected an increment in the intense events of daily and weekly precipitation, also in this case depending on the scenario and period considered. Considering framework, methodologies and results, the activities developed within the INTACT project, also through an intense effort of knowledge co-production between researchers and stakeholders, posed a theoretical-based starting point for CI owners, operators and protection policy makers for the setup of protection systems against present and future climatic hazard features.

Reconciling Scale Mismatch in Water Governance, Hydro-climatic Processes and Infrastructure Systems of Water Supply in Las Vegas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Alarcon, T.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

2013-12-01

Water resource systems are a classic example of a common pool resource due to the high cost of exclusion and the subtractability of the resource; for common pool resources, the performance of governance systems primarily depends on how well matched the institutional arrangements and rules are to the biophysical conditions and social norms. Changes in water governance, hydro-climatic processes and infrastructure systems occur on disparate temporal and spatial scales. A key challenge is the gap between current climate change model resolution, and the spatial and temporal scale of urban water supply decisions. This gap will lead to inappropriate management policies if not mediated through a carefully crafted decision making process. Traditional decision support and planning methods (DSPM) such as classical decision analysis are not equipped to deal with a non-static climate. While emerging methods such as decision scaling, robust decision making and real options are designed to deal with a changing climate, governance systems have evolved under the assumption of a static climate and it is not clear if these methods are well suited to the existing governance regime. In our study, these questions are contextualized by examining an urban water utility that has made significant changes in policy to adapt to changing conditions: the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) which serves metropolitan Las Vegas. Like most desert cities, Las Vegas exists because of water; the artesian springs of the Las Vegas Valley once provided an ample water supply for Native Americans, ranchers and later a small railroad city. However, population growth has increased demands far beyond local supplies. The area now depends on the Colorado River for the majority of its water supply. Natural climate variability with periodic droughts has further challenged water providers; projected climate changes and further population growth will exacerbate these challenges. Las Vegas is selected as a case study due to the combined challenges of population growth and climate change, common in the arid west, and due its cooperative institutional response to these challenges, unprecedented in the arid west. To begin to disentangle this question we have analyzed the institutional arrangements and rules which govern water decision making in the Las Vegas Valley and evaluated the existing DSPM used by the SNWA and partner utilities. Presented here are the preliminary results from an ongoing project.

Effectiveness and Tradeoffs between Portfolios of Adaptation Strategies Addressing Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainties in California's Central Valley

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tansey, M. K.; Van Lienden, B.; Das, T.; Munevar, A.; Young, C. A.; Flores-Lopez, F.; Huntington, J. L.

2013-12-01

The Central Valley of California is one of the major agricultural areas in the United States. The Central Valley Project (CVP) is operated by the Bureau of Reclamation to serve multiple purposes including generating approximately 4.3 million gigawatt hours of hydropower and providing, on average, 5 million acre-feet of water per year to irrigate approximately 3 million acres of land in the Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Tulare Lake basins, 600,000 acre-feet per year of water for urban users, and 800,000 acre-feet of annual supplies for environmental purposes. The development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies requires assessing multiple risks including potential climate changes as well as uncertainties in future socioeconomic conditions. In this study, a scenario-based analytical approach was employed by combining three potential 21st century socioeconomic futures with six representative climate and sea level change projections developed using a transient hybrid delta ensemble method from an archive of 112 bias corrected spatially downscaled CMIP3 global climate model simulations to form 18 future socioeconomic-climate scenarios. To better simulate the effects of climate changes on agricultural water demands, analyses of historical agricultural meteorological station records were employed to develop estimates of future changes in solar radiation and atmospheric humidity from the GCM simulated temperature and precipitation. Projected changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide were computed directly by weighting SRES emissions scenarios included in each representative climate projection. These results were used as inputs to a calibrated crop water use, growth and yield model to simulate the effects of climate changes on the evapotranspiration and yields of major crops grown in the Central Valley. Existing hydrologic, reservoir operations, water quality, hydropower, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and both urban and agricultural economic models were integrated into a suite of decision support tools to assess the impacts of future socioeconomic-climate uncertainties on key performance metrics for the CVP, State Water Project and other Central Valley water management systems under current regulatory requirements. Four thematic portfolios consisting of regional and local adaptation strategies including changes in reservoir operations, increased water conservation, storage and conveyance were developed and simulated to evaluate their potential effectiveness in meeting delivery reliability, water quality, environmental, hydropower, GHG, urban and agricultural economic performance criteria. The results indicate that the portfolios exhibit a considerable range of effectiveness depending on the socioeconomic-climate scenario. For most criteria, the portfolios were more sensitive to climate projections than socioeconomic assumptions. However, the results demonstrate that important tradeoffs occur between portfolios depending on the performance criteria considered.

Crossing Scales and Disciplines to Understand Challenges for Climate Change Adaptation and Water Resources Management in Chile and Californi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Medellin-Azuara, J.; Herman, J. D.; Sandoval Solis, S.

2017-12-01

California and Chile share similarities in terms of climate, ecosystems, topography and water use. In both regions, the hydro-climatologic system is characterized by a typical Mediterranean climate, rainy winters and dry summers, highly variable annual precipitation, and snowmelt-dependent water supply systems. Water use in both regions has also key similarities, with the highest share devoted to high-value irrigated crops, followed by urban water use and a significant hydropower-driven power supply system. Snowmelt-driven basins in semiarid regions are highly sensitive to climate change for two reasons, temperature effects on snowmelt timing and water resources scarcity in these regions subject to ever-increasing demands. Research in both regions also coincide in terms of the potential climate change impacts. Expected impacts on California and Chile water resources have been well-documented in terms of changes in water supply and water demand, though significant uncertainties remain. Both regions have recently experienced prolonged droughts, providing an opportunity to understand the future challenges and potential adaptive responses under climate change. This study connects researchers from Chile and California with the goal of understanding the problem of how to adapt to climate change impacts on water resources and agriculture at the various spatial and temporal scales. The project takes advantage of the complementary contexts between Chile and California in terms of similar climate and hydrologic conditions, water management institutions, patterns of water consumption and, importantly, a similar challenge facing recent drought scenarios to understand the challenges faced by a changing climate.

Environmental parameters altered by climate change affect the activity of soil microorganisms involved in bioremediation.

PubMed

Alkorta, Itziar; Epelde, Lur; Garbisu, Carlos

2017-10-16

Bioremediation, based on the use of microorganisms to break down pollutants, can be very effective at reducing soil pollution. But the climate change we are now experiencing is bound to have an impact on bioremediation performance, since the activity and degrading abilities of soil microorganisms are dependent on a series of environmental parameters that are themselves being altered by climate change, such as soil temperature, moisture, amount of root exudates, etc. Many climate-induced effects on soil microorganisms occur indirectly through changes in plant growth and physiology derived from increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations and temperatures, the alteration of precipitation patterns, etc., with a concomitant effect on rhizoremediation performance (i.e. the plant-assisted microbial degradation of pollutants in the rhizosphere). But these effects are extremely complex and mediated by processes such as acclimation and adaptation. Besides, soil microorganisms form complex networks of interactions with a myriad of organisms from many taxonomic groups that will also be affected by climate change, further complicating data interpretation. © FEMS 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Impacts of Climate Change on Indirect Human Exposure to Pathogens and Chemicals from Agriculture

PubMed Central

Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Hardy, Anthony; Beulke, Sabine; Boucard, Tatiana; Burgin, Laura; Falloon, Peter D.; Haygarth, Philip M.; Hutchinson, Thomas; Kovats, R. Sari; Leonardi, Giovanni; Levy, Leonard S.; Nichols, Gordon; Parsons, Simon A.; Potts, Laura; Stone, David; Topp, Edward; Turley, David B.; Walsh, Kerry; Wellington, Elizabeth M.H.; Williams, Richard J.

2009-01-01

Objective Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. Data sources In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. Data synthesis We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Conclusions Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes. PMID:19440487

Modelling regional variability of irrigation requirements due to climate change in Northern Germany.

PubMed

Riediger, Jan; Breckling, Broder; Svoboda, Nikolai; Schröder, Winfried

2016-01-15

The question whether global climate change invalidates the efficiency of established land use practice cannot be answered without systemic considerations on a region specific basis. In this context plant water availability and irrigation requirements, respectively, were investigated in Northern Germany. The regions under investigation--Diepholz, Uelzen, Fläming and Oder-Spree--represent a climatic gradient with increasing continentality from West to East. Besides regional climatic variation and climate change, soil conditions and crop management differ on the regional scale. In the model regions, temporal seasonal droughts influence crop success already today, but on different levels of intensity depending mainly on climate conditions. By linking soil water holding capacities, crop management data and calculations of evapotranspiration and precipitation from the climate change scenario RCP 8.5 irrigation requirements for maintaining crop productivity were estimated for the years 1991 to 2070. Results suggest that water requirement for crop irrigation is likely to increase with considerable regional variation. For some of the regions, irrigation requirements might increase to such an extent that the established regional agricultural practice might be hard to retain. Where water availability is limited, agricultural practice, like management and cultivated crop spectrum, has to be changed to deal with the new challenges. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Change as Migration Driver from Rural and Urban Mexico

PubMed Central

Hunter, Lori M.; Runfola, Daniel M.; Riosmena, Fernando

2015-01-01

Studies investigating migration as a response to climate variability have largely focused on rural locations to the exclusion of urban areas. This lack of urban focus is unfortunate given the sheer numbers of urban residents and continuing high levels of urbanization. To begin filling this empirical gap, this study investigates climate change impacts on U.S.-bound migration from rural and urban Mexico, 1986–1999. We employ geostatistical interpolation methods to construct two climate change indices, capturing warm and wet spell duration, based on daily temperature and precipitation readings for 214 weather stations across Mexico. In combination with detailed migration histories obtained from the Mexican Migration Project, we model the influence of climate change on household-level migration from 68 rural and 49 urban municipalities. Results from multilevel event-history models reveal that a temperature warming and excessive precipitation significantly increased international migration during the study period. However, climate change impacts on international migration is only observed for rural areas. Interactions reveal a causal pathway in which temperature (but not precipitation) influences migration patterns through employment in the agricultural sector. As such, climate-related international migration may decline with continued urbanization and the resulting reductions in direct dependence of households on rural agriculture. PMID:26692890

The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study

PubMed Central

Hansen, Kaj M.; Christensen, Jesper H.; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-01-01

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition. PMID:26378551

The Influence of Climate Change on Atmospheric Deposition of Mercury in the Arctic—A Model Sensitivity Study.

PubMed

Hansen, Kaj M; Christensen, Jesper H; Brandt, Jørgen

2015-09-10

Mercury (Hg) is a global pollutant with adverse health effects on humans and wildlife. It is of special concern in the Arctic due to accumulation in the food web and exposure of the Arctic population through a rich marine diet. Climate change may alter the exposure of the Arctic population to Hg. We have investigated the effect of climate change on the atmospheric Hg transport to and deposition within the Arctic by making a sensitivity study of how the atmospheric chemistry-transport model Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM) reacts to climate change forcing. The total deposition of Hg to the Arctic is 18% lower in the 2090s compared to the 1990s under the applied Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES-A1B) climate scenario. Asia is the major anthropogenic source area (25% of the deposition to the Arctic) followed by Europe (6%) and North America (5%), with the rest arising from the background concentration, and this is independent of the climate. DEHM predicts between a 6% increase (Status Quo scenario) and a 37% decrease (zero anthropogenic emissions scenario) in Hg deposition to the Arctic depending on the applied emission scenario, while the combined effect of future climate and emission changes results in up to 47% lower Hg deposition.

Precipitation variability on global pasturelands may affect food security in livestock-dependent regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sloat, L.; Gerber, J. S.; Samberg, L. H.; Smith, W. K.; West, P. C.; Herrero, M.; Brendan, P.; Cecile, G.; Katharina, W.; Smith, W. K.

2016-12-01

The need to feed an increasing number of people while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services is one of the key challenges currently facing humanity. Livestock systems are likely to be a crucial piece of this puzzle, as urbanization and changing diets in much of the world lead to increases in global meat consumption. This predicted increase in global demand for livestock products will challenge the ability of pastures and rangelands to maintain or increase their productivity. The majority of people that depend on animal production for food security do so through grazing and herding on natural rangelands, and these systems make a significant contribution to global production of meat and milk. The vegetation dynamics of natural forage are highly dependent on climate, and subject to disruption with changes in climate and climate variability. Precipitation heterogeneity has been linked to the ecosystem dynamics of grazing lands through impacts on livestock carrying capacity and grassland degradation potential. Additionally, changes in precipitation variability are linked to the increased incidence of extreme events (e.g. droughts, floods) that negatively impact food production and food security. Here, we use the inter-annual coefficient of variation (CV) of precipitation as a metric to assess climate risk on global pastures. Comparisons of global satellite measures of vegetation greenness to climate reveal that the CV of precipitation is negatively related to mean annual NDVI, such that areas with low year-to-year precipitation variability have the highest measures of vegetation greenness, and vice versa. Furthermore, areas with high CV of precipitation support lower livestock densities and produce less meat. A sliding window analysis of changes in CV of precipitation over the last century shows that, overall, precipitation variability is increasing in global pasture areas, although global maps reveal a patchwork of both positive and negative changes. We use this information to identify regions in which changes in the variability of precipitation may already be affecting the ability of grazing systems to support intensified livestock production, and assess the potential impacts of those changes on pasture productivity.

Late Quaternary climate stability and the origins and future of global grass endemism.

PubMed

Sandel, Brody; Monnet, Anne-Christine; Govaerts, Rafaël; Vorontsova, Maria

2017-01-01

Earth's climate is dynamic, with strong glacial-interglacial cycles through the Late Quaternary. These climate changes have had major consequences for the distributions of species through time, and may have produced historical legacies in modern ecological patterns. Unstable regions are expected to contain few endemic species, many species with strong dispersal abilities, and to be susceptible to the establishment of exotic species from relatively stable regions. We test these hypotheses with a global dataset of grass species distributions. We described global patterns of endemism, variation in the potential for rapid population spread, and exotic establishment in grasses. We then examined relationships of these response variables to a suite of predictor variables describing the mean, seasonality and spatial pattern of current climate and the temperature change velocity from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present. Grass endemism is strongly concentrated in regions with historically stable climates. It also depends on the spatial pattern of current climate, with many endemic species in areas with regionally unusual climates. There was no association between the proportion of annual species (representing potential population spread rates) and climate change velocity. Rather, the proportion of annual species depended very strongly on current temperature. Among relatively stable regions (<10 m year -1 ), increasing velocity decreased the proportion of species that were exotic, but this pattern reversed for higher-velocity regions (>10 m year -1 ). Exotic species were most likely to originate from relatively stable regions with climates similar to those found in their exotic range. Long-term climate stability has important influences on global endemism patterns, largely confirming previous work from other groups. Less well recognized is its role in generating patterns of exotic species establishment. This result provides an important historical context for the conjecture that climate change in the near future may promote species invasions. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Does climate variability influence the demography of wild primates? Evidence from long-term life-history data in seven species.

PubMed

Campos, Fernando A; Morris, William F; Alberts, Susan C; Altmann, Jeanne; Brockman, Diane K; Cords, Marina; Pusey, Anne; Stoinski, Tara S; Strier, Karen B; Fedigan, Linda M

2017-11-01

Earth's rapidly changing climate creates a growing need to understand how demographic processes in natural populations are affected by climate variability, particularly among organisms threatened by extinction. Long-term, large-scale, and cross-taxon studies of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability can be particularly valuable because they can reveal environmental drivers that affect multiple species over extensive regions. Few such data exist for animals with slow life histories, particularly in the tropics, where climate variation over large-scale space is asynchronous. As our closest relatives, nonhuman primates are especially valuable as a resource to understand the roles of climate variability and climate change in human evolutionary history. Here, we provide the first comprehensive investigation of vital rate variation in relation to climate variability among wild primates. We ask whether primates are sensitive to global changes that are universal (e.g., higher temperature, large-scale climate oscillations) or whether they are more sensitive to global change effects that are local (e.g., more rain in some places), which would complicate predictions of how primates in general will respond to climate change. To address these questions, we use a database of long-term life-history data for natural populations of seven primate species that have been studied for 29-52 years to investigate associations between vital rate variation, local climate variability, and global climate oscillations. Associations between vital rates and climate variability varied among species and depended on the time windows considered, highlighting the importance of temporal scale in detection of such effects. We found strong climate signals in the fertility rates of three species. However, survival, which has a greater impact on population growth, was little affected by climate variability. Thus, we found evidence for demographic buffering of life histories, but also evidence of mechanisms by which climate change could affect the fates of wild primates. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Functional and phylogenetic relatedness in temporary wetland invertebrates: current macroecological patterns and implications for future climatic change scenarios.

PubMed

Ruhí, Albert; Boix, Dani; Gascón, Stéphanie; Sala, Jordi; Batzer, Darold P

2013-01-01

In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation), we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness) of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold) allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate) to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold), and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate) was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i) as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii) this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity embedded in these vulnerable and often overlooked ecosystems will be affected by long-term climate change.

Functional and Phylogenetic Relatedness in Temporary Wetland Invertebrates: Current Macroecological Patterns and Implications for Future Climatic Change Scenarios

PubMed Central

Ruhí, Albert; Boix, Dani; Gascón, Stéphanie; Sala, Jordi; Batzer, Darold P.

2013-01-01

In freshwater ecosystems, species compositions are known to be determined hierarchically by large to small‑scale environmental factors, based on the biological traits of the organisms. However, in ephemeral habitats this heuristic framework remains largely untested. Although temporary wetland faunas are constrained by a local filter (i.e., desiccation), we propose its magnitude may still depend on large-scale climate characteristics. If this is true, climate should be related to the degree of functional and taxonomic relatedness of invertebrate communities inhabiting seasonal wetlands. We tested this hypothesis in two ways. First, based on 52 biological traits for invertebrates, we conducted a case study to explore functional trends among temperate seasonal wetlands differing in the harshness (i.e., dryness) of their dry season. After finding evidence of trait filtering, we addressed whether it could be generalized across a broader climatic scale. To this end, a meta-analysis (225 seasonal wetlands spread across broad climatic categories: Arid, Temperate, and Cold) allowed us to identify whether an equivalent climate-dependent pattern of trait richness was consistent between the Nearctic and the Western Palearctic. Functional overlap of invertebrates increased from mild (i.e., Temperate) to harsher climates (i.e., Arid and Cold), and phylogenetic clustering (using taxonomy as a surrogate) was highest in Arid and lowest in Temperate wetlands. We show that, (i) as has been described in streams, higher relatedness than would be expected by chance is generally observed in seasonal wetland invertebrate communities; and (ii) this relatedness is not constant but climate-dependent, with the climate under which a given seasonal wetland is located determining the functional overlap and the phylogenetic clustering of the community. Finally, using a space-for-time substitution approach we suggest our results may anticipate how the invertebrate biodiversity embedded in these vulnerable and often overlooked ecosystems will be affected by long-term climate change. PMID:24312347

Doom and boom on a resilient reef: climate change, algal overgrowth and coral recovery.

PubMed

Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo; McCook, Laurence J; Dove, Sophie; Berkelmans, Ray; Roff, George; Kline, David I; Weeks, Scarla; Evans, Richard D; Williamson, David H; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

2009-01-01

Coral reefs around the world are experiencing large-scale degradation, largely due to global climate change, overfishing, diseases and eutrophication. Climate change models suggest increasing frequency and severity of warming-induced coral bleaching events, with consequent increases in coral mortality and algal overgrowth. Critically, the recovery of damaged reefs will depend on the reversibility of seaweed blooms, generally considered to depend on grazing of the seaweed, and replenishment of corals by larvae that successfully recruit to damaged reefs. These processes usually take years to decades to bring a reef back to coral dominance. In 2006, mass bleaching of corals on inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef caused high coral mortality. Here we show that this coral mortality was followed by an unprecedented bloom of a single species of unpalatable seaweed (Lobophora variegata), colonizing dead coral skeletons, but that corals on these reefs recovered dramatically, in less than a year. Unexpectedly, this rapid reversal did not involve reestablishment of corals by recruitment of coral larvae, as often assumed, but depended on several ecological mechanisms previously underestimated. These mechanisms of ecological recovery included rapid regeneration rates of remnant coral tissue, very high competitive ability of the corals allowing them to out-compete the seaweed, a natural seasonal decline in the particular species of dominant seaweed, and an effective marine protected area system. Our study provides a key example of the doom and boom of a highly resilient reef, and new insights into the variability and mechanisms of reef resilience under rapid climate change.

A first-order global model of Late Cenozoic climatic change: Orbital forcing as a pacemaker of the ice ages

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry

1992-01-01

The development of a theory of the evolution of the climate of the earth over millions of years can be subdivided into three fundamental, nested, problems: (1) to establish by equilibrium climate models (e.g., general circulation models) the diagnostic relations, valid at any time, between the fast-response climate variables (i.e., the 'weather statistics') and both the prescribed external radiative forcing and the prescribed distribution of the slow response variables (e.g., the ice sheets and shelves, the deep ocean state, and the atmospheric CO2 concentration); (2) to construct, by an essentially inductive process, a model of the time-dependent evolution of the slow-response climatic variables over time scales longer than the damping times of these variables but shorter than the time scale of tectonic changes in the boundary conditions (e.g., altered geography and elevation of the continents, slow outgassing, and weathering) and ultra-slow astronomical changes such as in the solar radiative output; and (3) to determine the nature of these ultra-slow processes and their effects on the evolution of the equilibrium state of the climatic system about which the above time-dependent variations occur. All three problems are discussed in the context of the theory of the Quaternary climate, which will be incomplete unless it is embedded in a more general theory for the fuller Cenozoic that can accommodate the onset of the ice-age fluctuations. We construct a simple mathematical model for the Late Cenozoic climatic changes based on the hypothesis that forced and free variations of the concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases (notably CO2), coupled with changes in the deep ocean state and ice mass, under the additional 'pacemaking' influence of earth-orbital forcing, are primary determinants of the climate state over this period. Our goal is to illustrate how a single model governing both very long term variations and higher frequency oscillatory variations in the Pleistocene can be formulated with relatively few adjustable parameters.

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

PubMed

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by lessening the impact of future land-use activities on biodiversity within hotspots. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Livelihood Vulnerability Approach to Assess Climate Change Impacts to Mixed Agro-Livestock Smallholders Around the Gandaki River Basin of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panthi, J., Sr.

2014-12-01

Climate change vulnerability depends upon various factors and differs between places, sectors and communities. People in developing countries whose subsistence livelihood depends upon agriculture and livestock are identified as particularly vulnerable. Nepal, where the majority of people are in a mixed agro-livestock system, is identified as the world's fourth most vulnerable country to climate change. However, there are few studies on how vulnerable mixed agro-livestock smallholders are and how their vulnerability differs across different ecological regions. This study aims to test two vulnerability assessment indices, livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) and IPCC vulnerability index (VI-IPCC), around the Gandaki river basin of Nepal. A total of 543 households practicing mixed agro-livestock were surveyed from three districts (Dhading, Syangja and Kapilvastu) representing the mountain, mid-hill and lowland altitudinal belts respectively. Data on socio-demographics, livelihoods, social networks, health, food and water security, natural disasters and climate variability were collected. Both indices differed across the three districts, with mixed agro-livestock smallholders of Dhading district found to be the most vulnerable and that of Syangja least vulnerable. This vulnerability index approach may be used to monitor rural vulnerability and/or evaluate potential program/policy effectiveness in poor countries like Nepal. The present findings are intended to help in designing intervention strategies to reduce vulnerability of mixed agro-livestock smallholders and other rural people in developing countries to climate change.

Process model simulations of the divergence effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Evans, M. N.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Smerdon, J. E.; Hughes, M. K.; Kaplan, A.; Vaganov, E. A.

2007-12-01

We explore the extent to which the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model of conifer tree-ring formation can explain evidence for changing relationships between climate and tree growth over recent decades. The VS model is driven by daily environmental forcing (temperature, soil moisture, and solar radiation), and simulates tree-ring growth cell-by-cell as a function of the most limiting environmental control. This simplified representation of tree physiology allows us to examine using a selection of case studies whether instances of divergence may be explained in terms of changes in limiting environmental dependencies or transient climate change. Identification of model-data differences permits further exploration of the effects of tree-ring standardization, atmospheric composition, and additional non-climatic factors.

Climate warming alters effects of management on population viability of threatened species: results from a 30-year experimental study on a rare orchid.

PubMed

Sletvold, Nina; Dahlgren, Johan P; Oien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Ehrlén, Johan

2013-09-01

Climate change is expected to influence the viability of populations both directly and indirectly, via species interactions. The effects of large-scale climate change are also likely to interact with local habitat conditions. Management actions designed to preserve threatened species therefore need to adapt both to the prevailing climate and local conditions. Yet, few studies have separated the direct and indirect effects of climatic variables on the viability of local populations and discussed the implications for optimal management. We used 30 years of demographic data to estimate the simultaneous effects of management practice and among-year variation in four climatic variables on individual survival, growth and fecundity in one coastal and one inland population of the perennial orchid Dactylorhiza lapponica in Norway. Current management, mowing, is expected to reduce competitive interactions. Statistical models of how climate and management practice influenced vital rates were incorporated into matrix population models to quantify effects on population growth rate. Effects of climate differed between mown and control plots in both populations. In particular, population growth rate increased more strongly with summer temperature in mown plots than in control plots. Population growth rate declined with spring temperature in the inland population, and with precipitation in the coastal population, and the decline was stronger in control plots in both populations. These results illustrate that both direct and indirect effects of climate change are important for population viability and that net effects depend both on local abiotic conditions and on biotic conditions in terms of management practice and intensity of competition. The results also show that effects of management practices influencing competitive interactions can strongly depend on climatic factors. We conclude that interactions between climate and management should be considered to reliably predict future population viability and optimize conservation actions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Statistical structure of intrinsic climate variability under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Xiuhua; Bye, John; Fraedrich, Klaus

2017-04-01

Climate variability is often studied in terms of fluctuations with respect to the mean state, whereas the dependence between the mean and variability is rarely discussed. We propose a new climate metric to measure the relationship between means and standard deviations of annual surface temperature computed over non-overlapping 100-year segments. This metric is analyzed based on equilibrium simulations of the Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model (MPI-ESM): the last millennium climate (800-1799), the future climate projection following the A1B scenario (2100-2199), and the 3100-year unforced control simulation. A linear relationship is globally observed in the control simulation and thus termed intrinsic climate variability, which is most pronounced in the tropical region with negative regression slopes over the Pacific warm pool and positive slopes in the eastern tropical Pacific. It relates to asymmetric changes in temperature extremes and associates fluctuating climate means with increase or decrease in intensity and occurrence of both El Niño and La Niña events. In the future scenario period, the linear regression slopes largely retain their spatial structure with appreciable changes in intensity and geographical locations. Since intrinsic climate variability describes the internal rhythm of the climate system, it may serve as guidance for interpreting climate variability and climate change signals in the past and the future.

Tree-ring growth of Scots pine, Common beech and Pedunculate oak under future climate in northeastern Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurasinski, Gerald; Scharnweber, Tobias; Schröder, Christian; Lennartz, Bernd; Bauwe, Andreas

2017-04-01

Tree growth depends, among other factors, largely on the prevailing climatic conditions. Therefore, tree growth patterns are to be expected under climate change. Here, we analyze the tree-ring growth response of three major European tree species to projected future climate across a climatic (mostly precipitation) gradient in northeastern Germany. We used monthly data for temperature, precipitation, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) over multiple time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months) to construct models of tree-ring growth for Scots pine (Pinus syl- vestris L.) at three pure stands, and for Common beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) and Pedunculate oak (Quercus robur L.) at three mature mixed stands. The regression models were derived using a two-step approach based on partial least squares regression (PLSR) to extract potentially well explaining variables followed by ordinary least squares regression (OLSR) to consolidate the models to the least number of variables while retaining high explanatory power. The stability of the models was tested with a comprehensive calibration-verification scheme. All models were successfully verified with R2s ranging from 0.21 for the western pine stand to 0.62 for the beech stand in the east. For growth prediction, climate data forecasted until 2100 by the regional climate model WETTREG2010 based on the A1B Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emission scenario was used. For beech and oak, growth rates will likely decrease until the end of the 21st century. For pine, modeled growth trends vary and range from a slight growth increase to a weak decrease in growth rates depending on the position along the climatic gradient. The climatic gradient across the study area will possibly affect the future growth of oak with larger growth reductions towards the drier east. For beech, site-specific adaptations seem to override the influence of the climatic gradient. We conclude that in Northeastern Germany Scots pine has great potential to remain resilient to projected climate change without any greater impairment, whereas Common beech and Pedunculate oak will likely face lesser growth under the expected warmer and dryer climate conditions. The results call for an adaptation of forest management to mitigate the negative effects of climate change for beech and oak in the region.

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions

PubMed Central

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2016-01-01

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems – dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms – are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning. PMID:27633953

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-01-01

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Idealized climate change simulations with a high-resolution physical model: HadGEM3-GC2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senior, Catherine A.; Andrews, Timothy; Burton, Chantelle; Chadwick, Robin; Copsey, Dan; Graham, Tim; Hyder, Pat; Jackson, Laura; McDonald, Ruth; Ridley, Jeff; Ringer, Mark; Tsushima, Yoko

2016-06-01

Idealized climate change simulations with a new physical climate model, HadGEM3-GC2 from The Met Office Hadley Centre are presented and contrasted with the earlier MOHC model, HadGEM2-ES. The role of atmospheric resolution is also investigated. The Transient Climate Response (TCR) is 1.9 K/2.1 K at N216/N96 and Effective Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is 3.1 K/3.2 K at N216/N96. These are substantially lower than HadGEM2-ES (TCR: 2.5 K; ECS: 4.6 K) arising from a combination of changes in the size of climate feedbacks. While the change in the net cloud feedback between HadGEM3 and HadGEM2 is relatively small, there is a change in sign of its longwave and a strengthening of its shortwave components. At a global scale, there is little impact of the increase in atmospheric resolution on the future climate change signal and even at a broad regional scale, many features are robust including tropical rainfall changes, however, there are some significant exceptions. For the North Atlantic and western Europe, the tripolar pattern of winter storm changes found in most CMIP5 models is little impacted by resolution but for the most intense storms, there is a larger percentage increase in number at higher resolution than at lower resolution. Arctic sea-ice sensitivity shows a larger dependence on resolution than on atmospheric physics.

Vulnerability to climate-induced changes in ecosystem services of boreal forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holmberg, Maria; Rankinen, Katri; Aalto, Tuula; Akujärvi, Anu; Nadir Arslan, Ali; Liski, Jari; Markkanen, Tiina; Mäkelä, Annikki; Peltoniemi, Mikko

2016-04-01

Boreal forests provide an array of ecosystem services. They regulate climate, and carbon, water and nutrient fluxes, and provide renewable raw material, food, and recreational possibilities. Rapid climate warming is projected for the boreal zone, and has already been observed in Finland, which sets these services at risk. MONIMET (LIFE12 ENV/FI/000409, 2.9.2013 - 1.9.2017) is a project funded by EU Life programme about Climate Change Indicators and Vulnerability of Boreal Zone Applying Innovative Observation and Modeling Techniques. The coordinating beneficiary of the project is the Finnish Meteorological Institute. Associated beneficiaries are the Natural Resources Institute Finland, the Finnish Environment Institute and the University of Helsinki. In the MONIMET project, we use state-of-the-art models and new monitoring methods to investigate the impacts of a warming climate on the provision of ecosystem services of boreal forests. This poster presents results on carbon storage in soil and assessment of drought indices, as a preparation for assessing the vulnerability of society to climate-induced changes in ecosystem services. The risk of decreasing provision of ecosystem services depends on the sensitivity of the ecosystem as well as its exposure to climate stress. The vulnerability of society, in turn, depends on the risk of decreasing provision of a certain service in combination with society's demand for that service. In the next phase, we will look for solutions to challenges relating to the quantification of the demand for ecosystem services and differences in spatial extent and resolution of the information on future supply and demand.

An Integrated Hydro-Economic Model for Economy-Wide Climate Change Impact Assessment for Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Thurlow, J.; Diao, X.

2008-12-01

Zambia is a landlocked country in Southern Africa, with a total population of about 11 million and a total area of about 752 thousand square kilometers. Agriculture in the country depends heavily on rainfall as the majority of cultivated land is rain-fed. Significant rainfall variability has been a huge challenge for the country to keep a sustainable agricultural growth, which is an important condition for the country to meet the United Nations Millennium Development Goals. The situation is expected to become even more complex as climate change would impose additional impacts on rainwater availability and crop water requirements, among other changes. To understand the impacts of climate variability and change on agricultural production and national economy, a soil hydrology model and a crop water production model are developed to simulate actual crop water uses and yield losses under water stress which provide annual shocks for a recursive dynamic computational general equilibrium (CGE) model developed for Zambia. Observed meteorological data of the past three decades are used in the integrated hydro-economic model for climate variability impact analysis, and as baseline climatology for climate change impact assessment together with several GCM-based climate change scenarios that cover a broad range of climate projections. We found that climate variability can explain a significant portion of the annual variations of agricultural production and GDP of Zambia in the past. Hidden beneath climate variability, climate change is found to have modest impacts on agriculture and national economy of Zambia around 2025 but the impacts would be pronounced in the far future if appropriate adaptations are not implemented. Policy recommendations are provided based on scenario analysis.

A Case Study in Caribbean Climate Change: Impacts on Crop Suitability and Small Farmer Vulnerability in St. Elizabeth, Jamaica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, W. R.; Gamble, D. W.; Popke, J.

2013-12-01

This paper examines some of the implications of climate change for farming in the Caribbean, through an analysis of future crop suitability and a case study of climate variability and agricultural practices in St. Elizabeth Parish, Jamaica. To assess potential changes in Caribbean agriculture, we present results from a water budget model based on a 100-year regional climate projection of temperature and precipitation for the circum-Caribbean basin. We find that future water deficits in the region are climate type-dependent. Savanna climates experience the largest annual changes, while semi-arid environments are greatly impacted in the spring. When the impacts of temperature and precipitation are considered separately, we find that predicted future warming, and the associated increase in evapotranspiration, has a slightly larger climatological effect on crop water need than predicted decreases in precipitation. To illustrate how a changing climate regime may impact agricultural practices, we present results from recent fieldwork in St. Elizabeth Parish, one of the main farming regions on the island of Jamaica. Drawing on data from farmer interviews and a recently-installed weather mesonet, we highlight the ways in which local microclimates influence farmer livelihood strategies and community-level vulnerability. Initial results suggest that farmers are experiencing greater climate variability, and that communities with Savanna and semi-arid type climates may be more susceptible to drought than communities in wetter, higher-elevation microclimates. These changes have enhanced the importance of irrigation technology and water management strategies for successful farming. In this context, we argue, large, well-capitalized farmers may be better able to manage the uncertainties associated with climate change, leading to an uneven landscape of vulnerability across the region.

Grassland responses to increased rainfall depend on the timescale of forcing.

PubMed

Sullivan, Martin J P; Thomsen, Meredith A; Suttle, K B

2016-04-01

Forecasting impacts of future climate change is an important challenge to biologists, both for understanding the consequences of different emissions trajectories and for developing adaptation measures that will minimize biodiversity loss. Existing variation provides a window into the effects of climate on species and ecosystems, but in many places does not encompass the levels or timeframes of forcing expected under directional climatic change. Experiments help us to fill in these uncertainties, simulating directional shifts to examine outcomes of new levels and sustained changes in conditions. Here, we explore the translation between short-term responses to climate variability and longer-term trajectories that emerge under directional climatic change. In a decade-long experiment, we compare effects of short-term and long-term forcings across three trophic levels in grassland plots subjected to natural and experimental variation in precipitation. For some biological responses (plant productivity), responses to long-term extension of the rainy season were consistent with short-term responses, while for others (plant species richness, abundance of invertebrate herbivores and predators), there was pronounced divergence of long-term trajectories from short-term responses. These differences between biological responses mean that sustained directional changes in climate can restructure ecological relationships characterizing a system. Importantly, a positive relationship between plant diversity and productivity turned negative under one scenario of climate change, with a similar change in the relationship between plant productivity and consumer biomass. Inferences from experiments such as this form an important part of wider efforts to understand the complexities of climate change responses. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Extreme precipitation response to climate perturbations in an atmospheric mesoscale model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Attema, Jisk J.; Loriaux, Jessica M.; Lenderink, Geert

2014-01-01

Observations of extreme (sub-)hourly precipitation at mid-latitudes show a large dependency on the dew point temperature often close to 14% per degree—2 times the dependency of the specific humidity on dew point temperature which is given by the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. By simulating a selection of 11 cases over the Netherlands characterized by intense showers, we investigate this behavior in the non-hydrostatic weather prediction model Harmonie at a resolution of 2.5 km. These experiments are repeated using perturbations of the atmospheric profiles of temperature and humidity: (i) using an idealized approach with a 2° warmer (colder) atmosphere assuming constant relative humidity, and (ii) using changes in temperature and humidity derived from a long climate change simulation at 2° global warming. All perturbations have a difference in the local dew point temperature compared to the reference of approximately 2°. Differences are considerable between the cases, with dependencies ranging from almost zero to an increase of 18% per degree rise of the dew point temperature. On average however, we find an increase of extreme precipitation intensity of 11% per degree for the idealized perturbation, and 9% per degree for the climate change perturbation. For the most extreme events these dependencies appear to approach a rate of 11-14% per degree, in closer agreement with the observed relation.

A 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change in the Pacific.

PubMed

McIver, Lachlan; Bowen, Kathryn; Hanna, Elizabeth; Iddings, Steven

2017-06-01

Small Pacific Island countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the anticipated detrimental health effects of climate change. The assessment of health vulnerabilities and planning adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change on health tests traditional health governance structures and depends on strong linkages and partnerships between actors involved in these vital processes. This article reviews the actors, processes and contexts of the climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project carried out by the World Health Organization and health sector partners in three island countries in the Micronesian region of the Pacific throughout 2010 and 2011: Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands and Palau. Despite their shared history and cultural characteristics, the findings and implications of this article are considered to have substantial relevance and potential application to other PICs. The modified 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change and health adaptation presented in this article draws upon real-world experience and governance theory from both the health and climate change literature and, for the first time, places health systems adaptation within the vision for 'Healthy Islands' in the Pacific region. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparing Climate Change and Species Invasions as Drivers of Coldwater Fish Population Extirpations

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sapna; Vander Zanden, M. Jake; Magnuson, John J.; Lyons, John

2011-01-01

Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25–70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change. PMID:21860661

Assessing the combined effects of urbanisation and climate change on the river water quality in an integrated urban wastewater system in the UK.

PubMed

Astaraie-Imani, Maryam; Kapelan, Zoran; Fu, Guangtao; Butler, David

2012-12-15

Climate change and urbanisation are key factors affecting the future of water quality and quantity in urbanised catchments and are associated with significant uncertainty. The work reported in this paper is an evaluation of the combined and relative impacts of climate change and urbanisation on the receiving water quality in the context of an Integrated Urban Wastewater System (IUWS) in the UK. The impacts of intervening system operational control parameters are also investigated. Impact is determined by a detailed modelling study using both local and global sensitivity analysis methods together with correlation analysis. The results obtained from the case-study analysed clearly demonstrate that climate change combined with increasing urbanisation is likely to lead to worsening river water quality in terms of both frequency and magnitude of breaching threshold dissolved oxygen and ammonium concentrations. The results obtained also reveal the key climate change and urbanisation parameters that have the largest negative impact as well as the most responsive IUWS operational control parameters including major dependencies between all these parameters. This information can be further utilised to adapt future IUWS operation and/or design which, in turn, should make these systems more resilient to future climate and urbanisation changes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing climate change and species invasions as drivers of coldwater fish population extirpations.

PubMed

Sharma, Sapna; Vander Zanden, M Jake; Magnuson, John J; Lyons, John

2011-01-01

Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25-70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change.

Allergenic pollen season variations in the past two decades under changing climate in the United States

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yong; Bielory, Leonard; Mi, Zhongyuan; Cai, Ting; Robock, Alan; Georgopoulos, Panos

2014-01-01

Many diseases are linked with climate trends and variations. In particular, climate change is expected to alter the spatiotemporal dynamics of allergenic airborne pollen and potentially increase occurrence of allergic airway disease. Understanding the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in pollen season timing and levels is thus important in assessing climate impacts on aerobiology and allergy caused by allergenic airborne pollen. Here we describe the spatiotemporal patterns of changes in the seasonal timing and levels of allergenic airborne pollen for multiple taxa in different climate regions at a continental scale. The allergenic pollen seasons of representative trees, weeds and grass during the past decade (2001–2010) across the contiguous United States have been observed to start 3.0 (95% Confidence Interval (CI), 1.1–4.9) days earlier on average than in the 1990s (1994–2000). The average peak value and annual total of daily counted airborne pollen have increased by 42.4% (95% CI, 21.9%–62.9%) and 46.0% (95% CI, 21.5%–70.5%), respectively. Changes of pollen season timing and airborne levels depend on latitude, and are associated with changes of growing degree days, frost free days, and precipitation. These changes are likely due to recent climate change and particularly the enhanced warming and precipitation at higher latitudes in the contiguous United States. PMID:25266307

Climate Impacts of Fire-Induced Land-Surface Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Hao, X.; Qu, J. J.

2017-12-01

One of the consequences of wildfires is the changes in land-surface properties such as removal of vegetation. This will change local and regional climate through modifying the land-air heat and water fluxes. This study investigates mechanism by developing and a parameterization of fire-induced land-surface property changes and applying it to modeling of the climate impacts of large wildfires in the United States. Satellite remote sensing was used to quantitatively evaluate the land-surface changes from large fires provided from the Monitoring Trends in Burning Severity (MTBS) dataset. It was found that the changes in land-surface properties induced by fires are very complex, depending on vegetation type and coverage, climate type, season and time after fires. The changes in LAI are remarkable only if the actual values meet a threshold. Large albedo changes occur in winter for fires in cool climate regions. The signs are opposite between the first post-fire year and the following years. Summer day-time temperature increases after fires, while nigh-time temperature changes in various patterns. The changes are larger in forested lands than shrub / grassland lands. In the parameterization scheme, the detected post-fire changes are decomposed into trends using natural exponential functions and fluctuations of periodic variations with the amplitudes also determined by natural exponential functions. The final algorithm is a combination of the trends, periods, and amplitude functions. This scheme is used with Earth system models to simulate the local and regional climate effects of wildfires.

Community shifts under climate change: mechanisms at multiple scales.

PubMed

Gornish, Elise S; Tylianakis, Jason M

2013-07-01

Processes that drive ecological dynamics differ across spatial scales. Therefore, the pathways through which plant communities and plant-insect relationships respond to changing environmental conditions are also expected to be scale-dependent. Furthermore, the processes that affect individual species or interactions at single sites may differ from those affecting communities across multiple sites. We reviewed and synthesized peer-reviewed literature to identify patterns in biotic or abiotic pathways underpinning changes in the composition and diversity of plant communities under three components of climate change (increasing temperature, CO2, and changes in precipitation) and how these differ across spatial scales. We also explored how these changes to plants affect plant-insect interactions. The relative frequency of biotic vs. abiotic pathways of climate effects at larger spatial scales often differ from those at smaller scales. Local-scale studies show variable responses to climate drivers, often driven by biotic factors. However, larger scale studies identify changes to species composition and/or reduced diversity as a result of abiotic factors. Differing pathways of climate effects can result from different responses of multiple species, habitat effects, and differing effects of invasions at local vs. regional to global scales. Plant community changes can affect higher trophic levels as a result of spatial or phenological mismatch, foliar quality changes, and plant abundance changes, though studies on plant-insect interactions at larger scales are rare. Climate-induced changes to plant communities will have considerable effects on community-scale trophic exchanges, which may differ from the responses of individual species or pairwise interactions.

The World Climate Exercise: Is (Simulated) Experience Our Best Teacher?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rath, K.; Rooney-varga, J. N.; Jones, A.; Johnston, E.; Sterman, J.

2015-12-01

Meeting the challenge of climate change will clearly require 'deep learning' - learning that motivates a search for underlying meaning, a willingness to exert the sustained effort needed to understand complex problems, and innovative problem-solving. This type of learning is dependent on the level of the learner's engagement with the material, their intrinsic motivation to learn, intention to understand, and relevance of the material to the learner. Here, we present evidence for deep learning about climate change through a simulation-based role-playing exercise, World Climate. The exercise puts participants into the roles of delegates to the United Nations climate negotiations and asks them to create an international climate deal. They find out the implications of their decisions, according to the best available science, through the same decision-support computer simulation used to provide feedback for the real-world negotiations, C-ROADS. World Climate provides an opportunity for participants have an immersive, social experience in which they learn first-hand about both the social dynamics of climate change decision-making, through role-play, and the dynamics of the climate system, through an interactive computer simulation. Evaluation results so far have shown that the exercise is highly engaging and memorable and that it motivates large majorities of participants (>70%) to take action on climate change. In addition, we have found that it leads to substantial gains in understanding key systems thinking concepts (e.g., the stock-flow behavior of atmospheric CO2), as well as improvements in understanding of climate change causes and impacts. While research is still needed to better understand the impacts of simulation-based role-playing exercises like World Climate on behavior change, long-term understanding, transfer of systems thinking skills across topics, and the importance of social learning during the exercise, our results to date indicate that it is a powerful, active learning tool that has strong potential to foster deep learning about climate change.

Climate Literacy in the Classroom: Supporting Teachers in the Transition to NGSS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, M. J. B.; Merrill, J.; Harcourt, P.; Petrone, C.; Shea, N.; Mead, H.

2014-12-01

Meeting the challenge of climate change will clearly require 'deep learning' - learning that motivates a search for underlying meaning, a willingness to exert the sustained effort needed to understand complex problems, and innovative problem-solving. This type of learning is dependent on the level of the learner's engagement with the material, their intrinsic motivation to learn, intention to understand, and relevance of the material to the learner. Here, we present evidence for deep learning about climate change through a simulation-based role-playing exercise, World Climate. The exercise puts participants into the roles of delegates to the United Nations climate negotiations and asks them to create an international climate deal. They find out the implications of their decisions, according to the best available science, through the same decision-support computer simulation used to provide feedback for the real-world negotiations, C-ROADS. World Climate provides an opportunity for participants have an immersive, social experience in which they learn first-hand about both the social dynamics of climate change decision-making, through role-play, and the dynamics of the climate system, through an interactive computer simulation. Evaluation results so far have shown that the exercise is highly engaging and memorable and that it motivates large majorities of participants (>70%) to take action on climate change. In addition, we have found that it leads to substantial gains in understanding key systems thinking concepts (e.g., the stock-flow behavior of atmospheric CO2), as well as improvements in understanding of climate change causes and impacts. While research is still needed to better understand the impacts of simulation-based role-playing exercises like World Climate on behavior change, long-term understanding, transfer of systems thinking skills across topics, and the importance of social learning during the exercise, our results to date indicate that it is a powerful, active learning tool that has strong potential to foster deep learning about climate change.

Insights from past millennia into climatic impacts on human health and survival

PubMed Central

McMichael, Anthony J.

2012-01-01

Climate change poses threats to human health, safety, and survival via weather extremes and climatic impacts on food yields, fresh water, infectious diseases, conflict, and displacement. Paradoxically, these risks to health are neither widely nor fully recognized. Historical experiences of diverse societies experiencing climatic changes, spanning multicentury to single-year duration, provide insights into population health vulnerability—even though most climatic changes were considerably less than those anticipated this century and beyond. Historical experience indicates the following. (i) Long-term climate changes have often destabilized civilizations, typically via food shortages, consequent hunger, disease, and unrest. (ii) Medium-term climatic adversity has frequently caused similar health, social, and sometimes political consequences. (iii) Infectious disease epidemics have often occurred in association with briefer episodes of temperature shifts, food shortages, impoverishment, and social disruption. (iv) Societies have often learnt to cope (despite hardship for some groups) with recurring shorter-term (decadal to multiyear) regional climatic cycles (e.g., El Niño Southern Oscillation)—except when extreme phases occur. (v) The drought–famine–starvation nexus has been the main, recurring, serious threat to health. Warming this century is not only likely to greatly exceed the Holocene's natural multidecadal temperature fluctuations but to occur faster. Along with greater climatic variability, models project an increased geographic range and severity of droughts. Modern societies, although larger, better resourced, and more interconnected than past societies, are less flexible, more infrastructure-dependent, densely populated, and hence are vulnerable. Adverse historical climate-related health experiences underscore the case for abating human-induced climate change. PMID:22315419

Impacts of future climate change on river discharge based on hydrological inference: A case study of the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Li, Zhong; Huang, Guohe; Wang, Xiuquan; Han, Jingcheng; Fan, Yurui

2016-04-01

Over the recent years, climate change impacts have been increasingly studied at the watershed scale. However, the impact assessment is strongly dependent upon the performance of the climatic and hydrological models. This study developed a two-step method to assess climate change impacts on water resources based on the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) modeling system and a Hydrological Inference Model (HIM). PRECIS runs provided future temperature and precipitation projections for the watershed under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios. The HIM based on stepwise cluster analysis is developed to imitate the complex nonlinear relationships between climate input variables and targeted hydrological variables. Its robust mathematical structure and flexibility in predictor selection makes it a desirable tool for fully utilizing various climate modeling outputs. Although PRECIS and HIM cannot fully cover the uncertainties in hydro-climate modeling, they could provide efficient decision support for investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources. The proposed method is applied to the Grand River Watershed in Ontario, Canada. The model performance is demonstrated with comparison to observation data from the watershed during the period 1972-2006. Future river discharge intervals that accommodate uncertainties in hydro-climatic modeling are presented and future river discharge variations are analyzed. The results indicate that even though the total annual precipitation would not change significantly in the future, the inter-annual distribution is very likely to be altered. The water availability is expected to increase in Winter while it is very likely to decrease in Summer over the Grand River Watershed, and adaptation strategies would be necessary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interactive Nature of Climate Change and Aerosol Forcing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D.; Tsigaridis, K.; Del Genio, A. D.; Kelley, M.; Tausnev, N.

2017-01-01

The effect of changing cloud cover on climate, based on cloud-aerosol interactions, is one of the major unknowns for climate forcing and climate sensitivity. It has two components: (1) the impact of aerosols on clouds and climate due to in-situ interactions (i.e., rapid response); and (2) the effect of aerosols on the cloud feedback that arises as climate changes - climate feedback response. We examine both effects utilizing the NASA GISS ModelE2 to assess the indirect effect, with both mass-based and microphysical aerosol schemes, in transient twentieth-century simulations. We separate the rapid response and climate feedback effects by making simulations with a coupled version of the model as well as one with no sea surface temperature or sea ice response (atmosphere-only simulations). We show that the indirect effect of aerosols on temperature is altered by the climate feedbacks following the ocean response, and this change differs depending upon which aerosol model is employed. Overall the effective radiative forcing (ERF) for the direct effect of aerosol-radiation interaction (ERFari) ranges between -0.2 and -0.6 W/sq m for atmosphere-only experiments while the total effective radiative forcing, including the indirect effect (ERFari+aci) varies between about -0.4 and -1.1 W/sq m for atmosphere-only simulations; both ranges are in agreement with those given in IPCC (2013). Including the full feedback of the climate system lowers these ranges to -0.2 to -0.5 W/sq m for ERFari, and -0.3 to -0.74 W/sq m for ERFari+aci. With both aerosol schemes, the climate change feedbacks have reduced the global average indirect radiative effect of atmospheric aerosols relative to what the emission changes would have produced, at least partially due to its effect on tropical upper tropospheric clouds.

Reframing climate change as a public health issue: an exploratory study of public reactions

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Climate change is taking a toll on human health, and some leaders in the public health community have urged their colleagues to give voice to its health implications. Previous research has shown that Americans are only dimly aware of the health implications of climate change, yet the literature on issue framing suggests that providing a novel frame - such as human health - may be potentially useful in enhancing public engagement. We conducted an exploratory study in the United States of people's reactions to a public health-framed short essay on climate change. Methods U.S. adult respondents (n = 70), stratified by six previously identified audience segments, read the essay and were asked to highlight in green or pink any portions of the essay they found "especially clear and helpful" or alternatively "especially confusing or unhelpful." Two dependent measures were created: a composite sentence-specific score based on reactions to all 18 sentences in the essay; and respondents' general reactions to the essay that were coded for valence (positive, neutral, or negative). We tested the hypothesis that five of the six audience segments would respond positively to the essay on both dependent measures. Results There was clear evidence that two of the five segments responded positively to the public health essay, and mixed evidence that two other responded positively. There was limited evidence that the fifth segment responded positively. Post-hoc analysis showed that five of the six segments responded more positively to information about the health benefits associated with mitigation-related policy actions than to information about the health risks of climate change. Conclusions Presentations about climate change that encourage people to consider its human health relevance appear likely to provide many Americans with a useful and engaging new frame of reference. Information about the potential health benefits of specific mitigation-related policy actions appears to be particularly compelling. We believe that the public health community has an important perspective to share about climate change, a perspective that makes the problem more personally relevant, significant, and understandable to members of the public. PMID:20515503

Reframing climate change as a public health issue: an exploratory study of public reactions.

PubMed

Maibach, Edward W; Nisbet, Matthew; Baldwin, Paula; Akerlof, Karen; Diao, Guoqing

2010-06-01

Climate change is taking a toll on human health, and some leaders in the public health community have urged their colleagues to give voice to its health implications. Previous research has shown that Americans are only dimly aware of the health implications of climate change, yet the literature on issue framing suggests that providing a novel frame--such as human health--may be potentially useful in enhancing public engagement. We conducted an exploratory study in the United States of people's reactions to a public health-framed short essay on climate change. U.S. adult respondents (n = 70), stratified by six previously identified audience segments, read the essay and were asked to highlight in green or pink any portions of the essay they found "especially clear and helpful" or alternatively "especially confusing or unhelpful." Two dependent measures were created: a composite sentence-specific score based on reactions to all 18 sentences in the essay; and respondents' general reactions to the essay that were coded for valence (positive, neutral, or negative). We tested the hypothesis that five of the six audience segments would respond positively to the essay on both dependent measures. There was clear evidence that two of the five segments responded positively to the public health essay, and mixed evidence that two other responded positively. There was limited evidence that the fifth segment responded positively. Post-hoc analysis showed that five of the six segments responded more positively to information about the health benefits associated with mitigation-related policy actions than to information about the health risks of climate change. Presentations about climate change that encourage people to consider its human health relevance appear likely to provide many Americans with a useful and engaging new frame of reference. Information about the potential health benefits of specific mitigation-related policy actions appears to be particularly compelling. We believe that the public health community has an important perspective to share about climate change, a perspective that makes the problem more personally relevant, significant, and understandable to members of the public.

Climate and tourism in the Black Forest during the warm season.

PubMed

Endler, Christina; Matzarakis, Andreas

2011-03-01

Climate, climate change and tourism all interact. Part of the public discussion about climate change focusses on the tourism sector, with direct and indirect impacts being of equally high relevance. Climate and tourism are closely linked. Thus, climate is a very decisive factor in choices both of destination and of type of journey (active holidays, wellness, and city tours) in the tourism sector. However, whether choices about destinations or types of trip will alter with climate change is difficult to predict. Future climates can be simulated and projected, and the tendencies of climate parameters can be estimated using global and regional climate models. In this paper, the focus is on climate change in the mountainous regions of southwest Germany - the Black Forest. The Black Forest is one of the low mountain ranges where both winter and summer tourism are vulnerable to climate change due to its southern location; the strongest climatic changes are expected in areas covering the south and southwest of Germany. Moreover, as the choice of destination is highly dependent on good weather, a climatic assessment for tourism is essential. Thus, the aim of this study was to estimate climatic changes in mountainous regions during summer, especially for tourism and recreation. The assessment method was based on human-biometeorology as well as tourism-climatologic approaches. Regional climate simulations based on the regional climate model REMO were used for tourism-related climatic analyses. Emission scenarios A1B and B1 were considered for the time period 2021 to 2050, compared to the 30-year base period of 1971-2000, particularly for the warm period of the year, defined here as the months of March-November. In this study, we quantified the frequency, but not the means, of climate parameters. The study results show that global and regional warming is reflected in an increase in annual mean air temperature, especially in autumn. Changes in the spring show a slight negative trend, which is in line with the trend of a decrease in physiologically equivalent temperature as well as in thermal comfort conditions. Due to the rising air temperature, heat stress as well as sultry conditions are projected to become more frequent, affecting human health and recreation, especially at lower lying altitudes. The tops of the mountains and higher elevated areas still have the advantage of offering comfortable climatic conditions.