Wetland methane modelling over the Scandinavian Arctic: Performance of current land-surface models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayman, Garry; Quiquet, Aurélien; Gedney, Nicola; Clark, Douglas; Friend, Andrew; George, Charles; Prigent, Catherine

2014-05-01

Wetlands are generally accepted as being the largest, but least well quantified, single natural source of CH4, with global emission estimates ranging from 100-231 Tg yr-1 [1] and for which the Boreal and Arctic regions make a significant contribution [2, 3]. The recent review by Melton et al. [4] has provided a summary of the current state of knowledge on the modelling of wetlands and the outcome of the WETCHIMP model intercomparison exercise. Melton et al. found a large variation in the wetland areas and associated methane emissions from the participating models and varying responses to climate change. In this paper, we report results from offline runs of two land surface models over Scandinavia (JULES, the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator [5, 6] and HYBRID8 [7]), using the same driving meteorological dataset (CRU-NCEP) for the period from January 1980 to December 2010. Although the two land surface models are very different, both models have used a TOPMODEL approach to derive the wetland area and have similar parameterisations of the methane wetland emissions. We find that both models give broadly similar results. They underestimate the wetland areas over Northern Scandinavia, compared to remote sensing and map-based datasets of wetlands [8]. This leads to lower predicted methane emissions compared to those observed on the ground and from aircraft [9]. We will present these findings and identify possible reasons for the underprediction. We will show the sensitivity to using the observed wetland areas to improve the methane emission estimates. References [1] Denman, K., et al.,: Couplings Between Changes in the Climate System and Biogeochemistry, In Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, United Kingdom, 2007; [2] Smith, L. C., et al.: Siberian peatlands a net carbon sink and global methane source since the early Holocene, Science, 303, 353-356, doi:10.1126/science.1090553, 2004; [3] Zhuang, Q., et al.: CO2 and CH4 exchanges between land ecosystems and the atmosphere in northern high latitudes over the 21st century, Geophysical Research Letters, 33, doi:10.1029/2006gl026972, 2006; [4] Melton, J.R., et al.: Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP), Biogeosciences, 10, 753-788, doi:10.5194/bg-10-753-2013, 2013; [5] Best, M. J., et al.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description - Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 677-699, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011; [6] Clark, D.B., et al.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), Model description - Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation. Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 701-722, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011, 2011; [7] Friend, A.D., and N.Y. Kiang: Land surface model development for the GISS GCM: Effects of improved canopy physiology on simulated climate. J. Climate, 18, 2883-2902, doi:10.1175/JCLI3425.1, 2005; [8] Prigent, C., et al.: Changes in land surface water dynamics since the 1990s and relation to population pressure, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L08403, doi:10.1029/2012GL051276, 2012; [9] O'Shea, S., et al.: Methane and carbon dioxide fluxes from the European Arctic wetlands during the MAMM project, paper in preparation.

National Unmanned Aircraft Systems Project Office

USGS Publications Warehouse

Goplen, Susan E.; Sloan, Jeff L.

2015-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Project Office leads the implementation of UAS technology in the Department of the Interior (DOI). Our mission is to support the transition of UAS into DOI as a new cost-effective tool for collecting remote-sensing data to monitor environmental conditions, respond to natural hazards, recognize the consequences and benefits of land and climate change and conduct wildlife inventories. The USGS is teaming with all DOI agencies and academia as well as local, State, and Tribal governments with guidance from the Federal Aviation Administration and the DOI Office of Aviation Services (OAS) to lead the safe, efficient, costeffective and leading-edge adoption of UAS technology into the scientific research and operational activities of the DOI.

Dynamic reserve design in the face of climate change and urbanization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Johnson, Fred A.; Stith, Bradley M.; Bonneau, Mathieu

2015-01-01

Reserve design is a process that must address many ecological, social, and political factors to successfully identify parcels of land in need of protection to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Making land acquisition choices for a large, terrestrial protected area is difficult because it occurs over a long timeframe and may involve consideration future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. Decision makers need to consider factors including: order of parcel purchasing given budget constraints, future uncertainty, potential future landscape‐scale changes from urbanization and climate. In central Florida, two new refuges and the expansion of a third refuge are in various stages of USFWS planning. The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge (EHNWR) has recently been established, is at the top of the Presidential Administration’s priority conservation areas, and is cited by the Secretary of DOI routinely in the context of conservation. The new refuges were strategically located for both for species adaptation from climate change impacts as well as currently being host to a number of important threatened and endangered species and habitats. We plan to combine a structured decision making framework, optimal solution theory, and output from ecological and sociological models (these modeling efforts were previously funded by DOI partners) that incorporate climate change to provide guidance for EHNWR reserve design. Utilizing a SDM approach and optimal solution theory, decision support tools will be developed that will incorporate stakeholder and agency objectives into targeting conservation lands both through fee simple purchase and other incentives such as easements based on ecological and socioeconomic modeling outputs driven by climate change.

Delivering Climate Science for the Nation's Fish, Wildlife, and Ecosystems: The U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beard, T. Douglas

2011-01-01

Changes to the Earth's climate-temperature, precipitation, and other important aspects of climate-pose significant challenges to our Nation's natural resources now and will continue to do so. Managers of land, water, and living resources need to understand the impacts of climate change-which will exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat fragmentation and invasive species-so they can design effective response strategies. In 2008 Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS); this center was formed to address challenges resulting from climate change and to empower natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision-making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has invested over $20M in cutting-edge climate change research and is now leading the effort to establish eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs).

Subpolar Atlantic cooling and North American east coast warming linked to AMOC slowdown

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahmstorf, Stefan; Caesar, Levke; Feulner, Georg; Saba, Vincent

2017-04-01

Reconstructing the history of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is difficult due to the limited availability of data. One approach has been to use instrumental and proxy data for sea surface temperature (SST), taking multi-decadal and longer SST variations in the subpolar gyre region as indicator for AMOC changes [Rahmstorf et al., 2015]. Recent high-resolution global climate model results [Saba et al., 2016] as well as dynamical theory and conceptual modelling [Zhang and Vallis, 2007] suggest that an AMOC weakening will not only cool the subpolar Atlantic but simultaneously warm the Northwest Atlantic between Cape Hatteras and Nova Scotia, thus providing a characteristic SST pattern associated with AMOC variations. We analyse sea surface temperature (SST) observations from this region together with high-resolution climate model simulations to better understand the linkages of SST variations to AMOC variability and to provide further evidence for an ongoing AMOC slowdown. References Rahmstorf, S., J. E. Box, G. Feulner, M. E. Mann, A. Robinson, S. Rutherford, and E. J. Schaffernicht (2015), Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation, Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480, doi: 10.1038/nclimate2554. Saba, V. S., et al. (2016), Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change, Journal of Geophysical Research-Oceans, 121(1), 118-132, doi: 10.1002/2015JC011346. Zhang, R., and G. K. Vallis (2007), The Role of Bottom Vortex Stretching on the Path of the North Atlantic Western Boundary Current and on the Northern Recirculation Gyre, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 37(8), 2053-2080, doi: 10.1175/jpo3102.1.

Identifying resource manager information needs for the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woodward, Andrea; Liedtke, Theresa; Jenni, Karen

2014-01-01

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) are a network of 22 public-private partnerships, defined by ecoregion, that share and provide science to ensure the sustainability of land, water, wildlife and cultural resources in North America. LLCs were established by the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI) in recognition that response to climate change must be coordinated on a landscape-level basis because important resources, ecosystem processes and resource management challenges extend beyond national wildlife refuges, Bureau of Land Management lands, national parks, and even international boundaries. Therefore, DOI agencies must work with other Federal, State, Tribal (U.S. indigenous peoples), First Nation (Canadian indigenous peoples), and local governments, as well as private landowners, to develop landscape-level strategies for understanding and responding to climate change.

Data-based information gain on the response behaviour of hydrological models at catchment scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2013-04-01

A data-based approach is presented to analyse the response behaviour of hydrological models at the catchment scale. The approach starts with a number of sequential time series processing steps, applied to available rainfall, ETo and river flow observation series. These include separation of the high frequency (e.g., hourly, daily) river flow series into subflows, split of the series in nearly independent quick and slow flow hydrograph periods, and the extraction of nearly independent peak and low flows. Quick-, inter- and slow-subflow recession behaviour, sub-responses to rainfall and soil water storage are derived from the time series data. This data-based information on the catchment response behaviour can be applied on the basis of: - Model-structure identification and case-specific construction of lumped conceptual models for gauged catchments; or diagnostic evaluation of existing model structures; - Intercomparison of runoff responses for gauged catchments in a river basin, in order to identify similarity or significant differences between stations or between time periods, and relate these differences to spatial differences or temporal changes in catchment characteristics; - (based on the evaluation of the temporal changes in previous point:) Detection of temporal changes/trends and identification of its causes: climate trends, or land use changes; - Identification of asymptotic properties of the rainfall-runoff behaviour towards extreme peak or low flow conditions (for a given catchment) or towards extreme catchment conditions (for regionalization, ungauged basin prediction purposes); hence evaluating the performance of the model in making extrapolations beyond the range of available stations' data; - (based on the evaluation in previous point:) Evaluation of the usefulness of the model for making extrapolations to more extreme climate conditions projected by for instance climate models. Examples are provided for river basins in Belgium, Ethiopia, Kenya, Ecuador, Bolivia and China. References: Van Steenbergen, N., Willems, P. (2012), 'Method for testing the accuracy of rainfall-runoff models in predicting peak flow changes due to rainfall changes, in a climate changing context', Journal of Hydrology, 414-415, 425-434, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.11.017 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water Resources Research, 48, W03513, 13p. Vansteenkiste, Th., Tavakoli, M., Ntegeka, V., Willems, P., De Smedt, F., Batelaan, O. (in press), 'Climate change impact on river flows and catchment hydrology: a comparison of two spatially distributed models', Hydrological Processes; doi: 10.1002/hyp.9480 [in press

Dehumidification of Iberia by enhanced summer upwelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miranda, P. M.; Costa, V.; Nogueira, M.; Semedo, A.

2015-12-01

Dehumidification of Iberia by enhanced summer upwelling Miranda PMA, Costa V, Semedo AIDL, Faculdade de Ciências, University of LisbonA 24-year simulation of the recent Iberian climate, using the WRF model at 9km resolution forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2012), is analysed for the decadal evolution of the upwelling forcing coastal wind and for column integrated Precipitable water vapour (PWV). Results indicate that, unlike what was found by Bakun et al. (2009) for the Peruvian region, a statistically significant trend in the upwelling favourable (northerly) wind has been accompanied by a corresponding decrease in PWV, not only inland but also over the coastal waters. Such increase is consistent with a reinforced northerly coastal jet in the maritime boundary layer contributing to atmospheric Ekman pumping of dry continental air into the coastal region. Diagnostics of the prevalence of the Iberian thermal low following Hoinka and Castro (2003) also show a positive trend in its frequency during an extended summer period (April to September). These results are consistent with recent studies indicating an upward trend in the frequency of upwelling in SW Iberia (Alves and Miranda 2013), and may be relevant for climate change applications as an increase in coastal upwelling (Miranda et al 2013) may lead to substantial regional impacts in the subtropics. Aknowledgements: Study supported by FCT Grant RECI/GEO-MET/0380/2012Alves JMR, Miranda PMA (2013) Variability of Iberian upwelling implied by ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, Tellus A 2013, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19245.Bakun et al (2010) Greenhouse gas, upwelling-favorable winds, and the future of coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems, Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02094.xHoinka KP, Castro M (2003) The Iberian Peninsula thermal low. QJRMS, 129, 1491- 1511, doi: 10.1256/qj.01.189.Miranda et al (2013) Climate change and upwelling: response of Iberian upwelling to atmospheric forcing in a regional climate scenario. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1442-9.

The ACER pollen and charcoal database: a global resource to document vegetation and fire response to abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez Goñi, María Fernanda; Desprat, Stéphanie; Daniau, Anne-Laure; Bassinot, Frank C.; Polanco-Martínez, Josué M.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Allen, Judy R. M.; Anderson, R. Scott; Behling, Hermann; Bonnefille, Raymonde; Burjachs, Francesc; Carrión, José S.; Cheddadi, Rachid; Clark, James S.; Combourieu-Nebout, Nathalie; Mustaphi, Colin. J. Courtney; Debusk, Georg H.; Dupont, Lydie M.; Finch, Jemma M.; Fletcher, William J.; Giardini, Marco; González, Catalina; Gosling, William D.; Grigg, Laurie D.; Grimm, Eric C.; Hayashi, Ryoma; Helmens, Karin; Heusser, Linda E.; Hill, Trevor; Hope, Geoffrey; Huntley, Brian; Igarashi, Yaeko; Irino, Tomohisa; Jacobs, Bonnie; Jiménez-Moreno, Gonzalo; Kawai, Sayuri; Kershaw, A. Peter; Kumon, Fujio; Lawson, Ian T.; Ledru, Marie-Pierre; Lézine, Anne-Marie; Liew, Ping Mei; Magri, Donatella; Marchant, Robert; Margari, Vasiliki; Mayle, Francis E.; Merna McKenzie, G.; Moss, Patrick; Müller, Stefanie; Müller, Ulrich C.; Naughton, Filipa; Newnham, Rewi M.; Oba, Tadamichi; Pérez-Obiol, Ramón; Pini, Roberta; Ravazzi, Cesare; Roucoux, Katy H.; Rucina, Stephen M.; Scott, Louis; Takahara, Hikaru; Tzedakis, Polichronis C.; Urrego, Dunia H.; van Geel, Bas; Valencia, B. Guido; Vandergoes, Marcus J.; Vincens, Annie; Whitlock, Cathy L.; Willard, Debra A.; Yamamoto, Masanobu

2017-09-01

Quaternary records provide an opportunity to examine the nature of the vegetation and fire responses to rapid past climate changes comparable in velocity and magnitude to those expected in the 21st-century. The best documented examples of rapid climate change in the past are the warming events associated with the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles during the last glacial period, which were sufficiently large to have had a potential feedback through changes in albedo and greenhouse gas emissions on climate. Previous reconstructions of vegetation and fire changes during the D-O cycles used independently constructed age models, making it difficult to compare the changes between different sites and regions. Here, we present the ACER (Abrupt Climate Changes and Environmental Responses) global database, which includes 93 pollen records from the last glacial period (73-15 ka) with a temporal resolution better than 1000 years, 32 of which also provide charcoal records. A harmonized and consistent chronology based on radiometric dating (14C, 234U/230Th, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL), 40Ar/39Ar-dated tephra layers) has been constructed for 86 of these records, although in some cases additional information was derived using common control points based on event stratigraphy. The ACER database compiles metadata including geospatial and dating information, pollen and charcoal counts, and pollen percentages of the characteristic biomes and is archived in Microsoft AccessTM at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.870867.

Global assessment of river flood protection benefits and corresponding residual risks under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Wee Ho; Yamazaki, Dai; Koirala, Sujan; Hirabayashi, Yukiko; Kanae, Shinjiro; Dadson, Simon J.; Hall, Jim W.

2016-04-01

Global warming increases the water-holding capacity of the atmosphere and this could lead to more intense rainfalls and possibly increasing natural hazards in the form of flooding in some regions. This implies that traditional practice of using historical hydrological records alone is somewhat limited for supporting long-term water infrastructure planning. This has motivated recent global scale studies to evaluate river flood risks (e.g., Hirabayashi et al., 2013, Arnell and Gosling, 2014, Sadoff et al., 2015) and adaptations benefits (e.g., Jongman et al., 2015). To support decision-making in river flood risk reduction, this study takes a further step to examine the benefits and corresponding residual risks for a range of flood protection levels. To do that, we channelled runoff information of a baseline period (forced by observed hydroclimate conditions) and each CMIP5 model (historic and future periods) into a global river routing model called CaMa-Flood (Yamazaki et al., 2011). We incorporated the latest global river width data (Yamazaki et al., 2014) into CaMa-Flood and simulate the river water depth at a spatial resolution of 15 min x 15 min. From the simulated results of baseline period, we use the annual maxima river water depth to fit the Gumbel distribution and prepare the return period-flood risk relationship (involving population and GDP). From the simulated results of CMIP5 model, we also used the annual maxima river water depth to obtain the Gumbel distribution and then estimate the exceedance probability (historic and future periods). We apply the return period-flood risk relationship (above) to the exceedance probability and evaluate the flood protection benefits. We quantify the corresponding residual risks using a mathematical approach that is consistent with the modelling structure of CaMa-Flood. Globally and regionally, we find that the benefits of flood protection level peak somewhere between 20 and 500 years; residual risks diminish substantially when flood protection level exceeds 20 years. These findings might be useful for decision-makers to weight the size of water infrastructure investment and emergency response capacity under climate change. References: Arnell, N.W, Gosling, S.N., 2014. The impact of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climatic Change 122: 127-140, doi: 10.1007/s10584-014-1084-5. Hirabayashi et al., 2013. Global flood risk under climate change. Nature Climate Change 3: 816-821, doi: 10.1038/nclimate1911. Jongman et al., 2015. Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation. Proceedings of National Academy of the United States of America 112, E2271-E2280, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1414439112. Sadoff et al., 2015. Securing Water, Sustaining Growth: Report of the GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and Sustainable Growth, University of Oxford, UK, 180 pp. Yamazaki et al., 2011. A physically based description of floodplain inundation dynamics in a global river routing model. Water Resources Research 47, W04501, doi: 10.1029/2010wr009726. Yamazaki et al., 2014. Development of the Global Width Database for Large Rivers. Water Resources Research 50, 3467-3480, doi: 10.1002/2013WR014664.

Delivering climate science about the Nation's fish, wildlife, and ecosystems: the U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varela-Acevedo, Elda

2014-01-01

Changes to the Earth’s climate—temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables—pose significant challenges to our Nation’s natural resources. Managers of land, water, and living resources require an understanding of the impacts of climate change—which exacerbate ongoing stresses such as habitat alteration and invasive species—in order to design effective response strategies. In 2008, Congress created the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The center was formed to address environmental challenges resulting from climate and land-use change and to provide natural resource managers with rigorous scientific information and effective tools for decision making. Located at the USGS National Headquarters in Reston, Virginia, the NCCWSC has established eight regional Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and has invested over $93 million (through fiscal year 2013) in cutting-edge climate change research.

Observing terrestrial water storage and land-atmosphere dynamics from space: Implications for forecasting and climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Humphrey, V.; Nicolai-Shaw, N.; Gudmundsson, L.; Guillod, B.; Hirschi, M.; Michel, D.; Orth, R.; Zscheischler, J.

2016-12-01

In recent years, several new satellite products have been derived which allow an unprecendented assessment of terrestrial water storage and land-atmosphere dynamics. This presentation will review some of these new developments, with a focus on drought dynamics, plant-water interactions, and soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. Results derived based on the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE, Humphrey et al. 2016) and the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (ESA CCI) Soil Moisture dataset (Nicolai-Shaw et al. 2015, 2016; Hirschi et al. 2014) will be highlighted, as well as assessments using satellite-based estimates of evapotranspiration (Mueller and Seneviratne 2014, Michel et al. 2016), vegetation activity (Zscheischler et al. 2015), and combined soil moisture and precipitation analyses (Guillod et al. 2015). These findings provide new insights on the development of prediction capabilities for droughts, precipitation events, and heat waves, and the reduction of uncertainties in climate model projections. References: Guillod, B.P., B. Orlowsky, D.G. Miralles, A.J. Teuling, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2015. Nature Communications, 6:6443, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms7443 Hirschi, M., B. Mueller, W. Dorigo, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2014. Remote Sensing of Environment, 154, 246-252. Humphrey, V., L. Gudmundsson, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2016. Surv. Geophysics, 37, 357-395, DOI 10.1007/s10712-016-9367-1. Michel, D., et al. 2016. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 20, 803-822, doi:10.5194/hess-20-803-2016. Mueller, M., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2014. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 1-7, doi:10.1002/2013GL058055. Nicolai-Shaw, N., L. Gudmundsson, M. Hirschi, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2016. Geophys. Res. Lett., in review. Nicolai-Shaw, N., M. Hirschi, H. Mittelbach, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2015. Journal of Geophysical Research, 120, doi:10.1002/2015JD023305. Zscheischler, J., R. Orth, and S.I. Seneviratne, 2015. Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 9816-9824, doi:10.1002/2015GL066563.

Recent decadal trends in Iberian water vapour: GPS analysis and WRF process study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Nogueira, Miguel; Semedo, Alvaro; Benevides, Pedro; Catalao, Joao; Costa, Vera

2016-04-01

A 24-year simulation of the recent Iberian climate, using the WRF model at 9km resolution forced by ERA-Interim reanalysis (1989-2012), is analysed for the decadal evolution of the upwelling forcing coastal wind and for column integrated Precipitable water vapour (PWV). Results indicate that, unlike what was found by Bakun et al. (2009) for the Peruvian region, a statistically significant trend in the upwelling favourable (northerly) wind has been accompanied by a corresponding decrease in PWV, not only inland but also over the coastal waters. Such increase is consistent with a reinforced northerly coastal jet in the maritime boundary layer contributing to atmospheric Ekman pumping of dry continental air into the coastal region. Diagnostics of the prevalence of the Iberian thermal low following Hoinka and Castro (2003) also show a positive trend in its frequency during an extended summer period (April to September). These results are consistent with recent studies indicating an upward trend in the frequency of upwelling in SW Iberia (Alves and Miranda 2013), and may be relevant for climate change applications as an increase in coastal upwelling (Miranda et al 2013) may lead to substantial regional impacts in the subtropics. The same analysis with ERA-Interim reanalysis data, which was used to force the WRF simulations, does not reveal the same signal in PWV, and indeed correlates poorly with the GPS observations, indicating that the data assimilation process makes the water vapour data in reanalysis unusable for climate change purposes. The good correlation between the WRF simulated data and GPS observations allow for a detailed analysis of the processes involved in the evolution of the PWV field. Akcnowledgements: Study done within FCT Grant RECI/GEO-MET/0380/2012, financially supported by FCT Grant UID/ GEO/50019/2013-IDL Alves JMR, Miranda PMA (2013) Variability of Iberian upwelling implied by ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, Tellus A 2013, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v65i0.19245. Bakun et al (2010) Greenhouse gas, upwelling-favorable winds, and the future of coastal ocean upwelling ecosystems, Global Change Biology, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2009.02094.x Hoinka KP, Castro M (2003) The Iberian Peninsula thermal low. QJRMS, 129, 1491- 1511, doi: 10.1256/qj.01.189. Miranda et al (2013) Climate change and upwelling: response of Iberian upwelling to atmospheric forcing in a regional climate scenario. Climate Dynamics, doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1442-9.

Interior's Climate Science Centers: Focus or Fail

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Udall, B.

2012-12-01

After a whirlwind two years of impressive and critical infrastructure building, the Department of Interior's Climate Science Centers are now in a position to either succeed or fail. The CSCs have a number of difficult structural problems including too many constituencies relative to the available resources, an uneasy relationship among many of the constituencies including the DOI agencies themselves, a need to do science in a new, difficult and non-traditional way, and a short timeframe to produce useful products. The CSCs have built a broad and impressive network of scientists and stakeholders. These entities include science providers of the universities and the USGS, and decision makers from the states, tribes, DOI land managers and other federal agencies and NGOs. Rather than try to support all of these constituencies the CSCs would be better served by refocusing on a core mission of supporting DOI climate related decision making. The CSCs were designed to service the climate science needs of DOI agencies, many of which lost their scientific capabilities in the 1990s due to a well-intentioned but ultimately harmful re-organization at DOI involving the now defunct National Biological Survey. Many of these agencies would like to have their own scientists, have an uneasy relationship with the nominal DOI science provider, the USGS, and don't communicate effectively among themselves. The CSCs must not succumb to pursuing science in either the traditional mode of the USGS or in the traditional mode of the universities, or worse, both of them. These scientific partners will need to be flexible, learn how to collaborate and should expect to see fewer resources. Useful CSC processes and outputs should start with the recommendations of the 2009 NRC Report Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate: (1) begin with users' needs; (2) give priority to process over products; (3) link information producers and users; (4) build connections across disciplines and organizations; (5) seek institutional stability; and (6) design processes for learning. In addition, CSC outputs should help decision makers to embrace and focus on uncertainty rather than on attempts to reduce uncertainty. Model building can be a useful exercise if used as a broad intellectual exercise to understand systems instead of narrow projection-based efforts. In some cases DOI agencies may want very simple products including scientific syntheses. Social science work including but not limited to economics and policy should be considered when appropriate to decision maker needs. One method for allocating CSC resources would involve a limited number of small scoping meetings with climate sensitive regional DOI agencies. In the Southwest, for example, regional entities would include at least the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, National Park Service, Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, Reclamation and the US Forest Service, a critically important land manager with a well-funded and well-structured climate program. Given DOI's trust responsibility to the tribes, at least one project should be focused on meeting those needs in this region. The goal of these meetings would be to identify a small number of projects each with adequate funding for interdisciplinary teams of university and USGS scientists and DOI decision makers. Done correctly, the CSCs should be able to leverage resources with these DOI partners.

Temperature extremes in a changing climate: Drivers and feedbacks (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Davin, E. L.; Hirschi, M.; Mueller, B.; Orlowsky, B.; Orth, R.; Wilhelm, M.

2013-12-01

Global warming increases the occurrence probability of hot extremes, and improving the predictability of such events is thus becoming of critical importance (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2012). This presentation provides an overview of past and projected changes in hot extremes on the global and regional scale, and of the respective drivers and feedbacks responsible for their occurrence. In particular, soil moisture-temperature feedbacks have been identified as major drivers for hot extremes (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2006, 2010; Hirschi et al. 2011). Recently, a global study (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012) has shown that wide areas of the world display a strong relationship between the number of hot days in the regions' hottest month and preceding precipitation deficits. These findings suggest that effects of soil moisture-temperature coupling are geographically more widespread than commonly assumed, with for instance large hot spots of soil moisture-temperature coupling in the Southern Hemisphere. Further results indicate that this relationship could be better used in the context of seasonal forecasting, allowing an early warning of impending hot summers (Mueller and Seneviratne 2012, Orth and Seneviratne 2013). In addition, the role of soil moisture-climate feedbacks for climate projections will also be discussed (e.g. Orlowsky and Seneviratne 2012; Seneviratne et al., 2013). Finally, we will address the relevance of the identified feedbacks in the context of urban climate, as well as potential relevant impacts of other land-climate interactions (e.g. from modifications in surface albedo). References: Hirschi, M., et al., 2011: Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geosci., 4, 17-21, doi:10.1038/ngeo1032. Mueller, B., and S.I. Seneviratne, 2012: Hot days induced by precipitation deficits at the global scale. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci., 109 (31), 12398-12403, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1204330109. Orth, R. and S.I. Seneviratne 2013: Using soil moisture forecasts for sub-seasonal temperature predictions in Europe. Submitted to Clim. Dyn.. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2006: Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature, 443, 205-209. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2010: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth-Science Reviews, 99, 3-4, 125-161, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004. Seneviratne, S.I., N. Nicholls, et al., 2012: Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation [Field, C.B., et al. (eds.)]. A Special Report of Working Groups I and II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, pp. 109-230. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2013: Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment. Submitted to Geophys. Res. Lett.

Quantifying uncertainty in observational rainfall datasets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lennard, Chris; Dosio, Alessandro; Nikulin, Grigory; Pinto, Izidine; Seid, Hussen

2015-04-01

The CO-ordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) has to date seen the publication of at least ten journal papers that examine the African domain during 2012 and 2013. Five of these papers consider Africa generally (Nikulin et al. 2012, Kim et al. 2013, Hernandes-Dias et al. 2013, Laprise et al. 2013, Panitz et al. 2013) and five have regional foci: Tramblay et al. (2013) on Northern Africa, Mariotti et al. (2014) and Gbobaniyi el al. (2013) on West Africa, Endris et al. (2013) on East Africa and Kalagnoumou et al. (2013) on southern Africa. There also are a further three papers that the authors know about under review. These papers all use an observed rainfall and/or temperature data to evaluate/validate the regional model output and often proceed to assess projected changes in these variables due to climate change in the context of these observations. The most popular reference rainfall data used are the CRU, GPCP, GPCC, TRMM and UDEL datasets. However, as Kalagnoumou et al. (2013) point out there are many other rainfall datasets available for consideration, for example, CMORPH, FEWS, TAMSAT & RIANNAA, TAMORA and the WATCH & WATCH-DEI data. They, with others (Nikulin et al. 2012, Sylla et al. 2012) show that the observed datasets can have a very wide spread at a particular space-time coordinate. As more ground, space and reanalysis-based rainfall products become available, all which use different methods to produce precipitation data, the selection of reference data is becoming an important factor in model evaluation. A number of factors can contribute to a uncertainty in terms of the reliability and validity of the datasets such as radiance conversion algorithims, the quantity and quality of available station data, interpolation techniques and blending methods used to combine satellite and guage based products. However, to date no comprehensive study has been performed to evaluate the uncertainty in these observational datasets. We assess 18 gridded rainfall datasets available over Africa on monthly, daily and sub-daily time scales as appropriate to quantify spatial and temporal differences between the datasets. We find regional wet and dry biases between datasets (using the ensemble mean as a reference) with generally larger biases in reanalysis products. Rainfall intensity is poorly represented in some datasets which demonstrates some datasets should not be used for rainfall intensity analyses. Using 10 CORDEX models we show in east Africa that the spread between observed datasets is often similar to the spread between models. We recommend that specific observational rainfall datasets datasets be used for specific investigations and also that where many datasets are applicable to an investigation, a probabilistic view be adopted for rainfall studies over Africa. Endris, H. S., P. Omondi, S. Jain, C. Lennard, B. Hewitson, L. Chang'a, J. L. Awange, A. Dosio, P. Ketiem, G. Nikulin, H-J. Panitz, M. Büchner, F. Stordal, and L. Tazalika (2013) Assessment of the Performance of CORDEX Regional Climate Models in Simulating East African Rainfall. J. Climate, 26, 8453-8475. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00708.1 Gbobaniyi, E., A. Sarr, M. B. Sylla, I. Diallo, C. Lennard, A. Dosio, A. Dhie ?diou, A. Kamga, N. A. B. Klutse, B. Hewitson, and B. Lamptey (2013) Climatology, annual cycle and interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in CORDEX simulations over West Africa. Int. J. Climatol., DOI: 10.1002/joc.3834 Hernández-Díaz, L., R. Laprise, L. Sushama, A. Martynov, K. Winger, and B. Dugas (2013) Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). Clim. Dyn. 40, 1415-1433. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1387-z Kalognomou, E., C. Lennard, M. Shongwe, I. Pinto, A. Favre, M. Kent, B. Hewitson, A. Dosio, G. Nikulin, H. Panitz, and M. Büchner (2013) A diagnostic evaluation of precipitation in CORDEX models over southern Africa. Journal of Climate, 26, 9477-9506. DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00703.1 Kim, J., D. E. Waliser, C. A. Mattmann, C. E. Goodale, A. F. Hart, P. A. Zimdars, D. J. Crichton, C. Jones, G. Nikulin, B. Hewitson, C. Jack, C. Lennard, and A. Favre (2013) Evaluation of the CORDEX-Africa multi-RCM hindcast: systematic model errors. Clim. Dyn. 42:1189-1202. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-013-1751-7 Laprise, R., L. Hernández-Díaz, K. Tete, L. Sushama, L. ?eparovi?, A. Martynov, K. Winger, and M. Valin (2013) Climate projections over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5). Clim. Dyn. 41:3219-3246. DOI:10.1007/s00382-012-1651-2 Mariotti, L., I. Diallo, E. Coppola, and F. Giorgi (2014) Seasonal and intraseasonal changes of African monsoon climates in 21st century CORDEX projections. Climatic Change, 1-13. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1097-0 Nikulin, G., C. Jones, F. Giorgi, G. Asrar, M. Büchner, R. Cerezo-Mota, O. Bøssing Christensen, M. Déqué, J. Fernandez, A. Hänsler, E.van Meijgaard, P. Samuelsson, M. Bamba Sylla, and L.Sushama (2012) Precipitation Climatology in an Ensemble of CORDEX-Africa Regional Climate Simulations. J. Climate, 25, 6057-6078. 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00375.1 Panitz, H.-J., , A. Dosio, M. Büchner, D. Lüthi, and K. Keuler (2013) COSMO-CLM (CCLM) climate simulations over CORDEX Africa domain: analysis of the ERA-Interim driven simulations at 0.44 degree and 0.22 degree resolution. Clim. Dyn., DOI:10.1007/s00382-013-1834-5 Sylla, M. B., F. Giorgi, E. Coppola, and L. Mariotti (2012) Uncertainties in daily rainfall over Africa: assessment of gridded observation products and evaluation of a regional climate model simulation. Int. J. Climatol., 33:1805-1817. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3551 Tramblay Y., D. Ruelland, S. Somot, R. Bouaicha, and E. Servat (2013) High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation of the ALADIN-Climate model in Morocco. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 10, 5687-5737. DOI:10.5194/hessd-10-5687-2013

Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McNeeley, S.; Ojima, D. S.

2013-12-01

Drought is part of the normal climate variability in the Great Plains and Intermountain Western United States, but recent severe droughts along with climate change projections have increased the interest and need for better understanding of drought science and decision making. The purpose of this study is to understand how the U.S. Department of the Interior's (DOI) federal land and resource managers and their stakeholders (i.e., National Park Service, Bureau of Land Management, Fish and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Reclamation, Bureau of Indian Affairs and tribes, among others) are experiencing and dealing with drought in their landscapes. The Drought Risk and Adaptation in the Interior (DRAI) project is part of a new DOI-sponsored North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) crosscutting science initiative on drought across the Center's three foundational science areas: 1. physical climate, 2. ecosystems impacts and responses, and 3. human adaptation and decision making. The overarching goal is to learn more about drought within the DOI public lands and resource management in order to contribute to both the NC CSC regional science as well as providing managers and other decision makers with the most salient, credible, and legitimate research to support land and resource management decisions. Here we will present the project approach along with some initial insights learned from the research to date along with its utility for climate adaptation.

National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, Version 2.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, R.; Fort, E.; Hartke-O'Berg, N.; Varela-Acevedo, E.; Padgett, Holly A.

2013-01-01

The mission of the USGS's National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) is to serve the scientific needs of managers of fish, wildlife, habitats, and ecosystems as they plan for a changing climate. DOI Climate Science Centers (CSCs) are management by NCCWSC and include this mission as a core responsibility, in line with the CSC mission to provide scientific support for climate-adaptation across a full range of natural and cultural resources. NCCWSC is a Science Center application designed in Drupal with the OMEGA theme. As a content management system, Drupal allows the science center to keep their website up-to-date with current publications, news, meetings and projects. OMEGA allows the site to be adaptive at different screen sizes and is developed on the 960 grid.

Growth characteristics of natural and planted Dahurian larch in northeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Bingrui; Zhou, Guangsheng

2018-04-01

Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii Rupr.) is the dominant species in both natural and planted forests in northeast China, which is situated in the southernmost part of the global boreal forest biome and is undergoing great climatically induced changes. Published studies (1965-2015) on tree above-ground growth of Dahurian larch forests in northeast China were collected in this study and critically reviewed, and a comprehensive growth data set was developed from 122 sites, which are distributed between 40.85 and 53.47° N in latitude, between 118.20 and 133.70° E in longitude and between 130 and 1260 m in altitude. The data set is composed of 743 entries and includes growth data (mean tree height, mean diameter at breast height (DBH), mean tree volume and/or stand volume) and associated information, i.e., geographical location (latitude, longitude, altitude, aspect and slope), climate (mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP)), stand description (origin, stand age, stand density and canopy density) and sample regime (observation year, plot area and plot number). It provides a quantitative reference for plantation management practices and boreal forest growth prediction under future climate change. The data set is freely available for noncommercial scientific applications, and the DOI for the data is https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.880984.

Early Citability of Data vs Peer-Review like Data Publishing Procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockhause, Martina; Höck, Heinke; Toussaint, Frank; Lautenschlager, Michael

2014-05-01

The World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) hosted at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) was one of the first data centers, which established a peer-review like data publication procedure resulting in DataCite DOIs. Data in the long-term archive (LTA) is diligently reviewed by data managers and data authors to grant high quality and widely reusability of the published data. This traditional data publication procedure for LTA data bearing DOIs is very time consuming especially for WDCC's high data volumes of climate model data in the order of multiple TBytes. Data is shared with project members and selected scientists months before the data is long-term archived. The scientific community analyses and thus reviews the data leading to data quality improvements. Scientists wish to cite these unstable data in scientific publications before the long-term archiving and the thorough data review process are finalized. A concept for early preprint DOIs for shared but not yet long-term archived data is presented. Requirements on data documentation, persistence and quality and use cases for preprint DOIs within the data life-cycle are discussed as well as questions of how to document the differences of the two DOI types and how to relate them to each other with the recommendation to use LTA DOIs in citations. WDCC wants to offer an additional user service for early citations of data of basic quality without compromising the LTA DOIs, i.e. WDCC's standard DOIs, as trustworthy indicator for high quality data. Referencing Links: World Data Center for Climate (WDCC): http://www.wdc-climate.de German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ): http://www.dkrz.de DataCite: http://datacite.org

U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers and U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center—Annual report for 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Weiskopf, Sarah R.; Varela Minder, Elda; Padgett, Holly A.

2017-05-19

Introduction2016 was an exciting year for the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC). In recognition of our ongoing efforts to raise awareness and provide the scientific data and tools needed to address the impacts of climate change on fish, wildlife, ecosystems, and people, NCCWSC and the CSCs received an honorable mention in the first ever Climate Adaptation Leadership Award for Natural Resources sponsored by the National Fish, Wildlife, and Plant Climate Adaptation Strategy’s Joint Implementation Working Group. The recognition is a reflection of our contribution to numerous scientific workshops and publications, provision of training for students and early career professionals, and work with Tribes and indigenous communities to improve climate change resilience across the Nation. In this report, we highlight some of the activities that took place throughout the NCCWSC and CSC network in 2016.

The world at 1.5°C: Understanding its regional dimensions and driving processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seneviratne, S. I.; Wartenburger, R.; Vogel, M.; Hirsch, A.; Guillod, B.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A. J.; Davin, E.; Greve, P.; Hirschi, M.

2017-12-01

This presentation reviews the available evidence regarding projected regional changes in climate extremes at 1.5°C vs higher levels of warming based on recent analyses (Seneviratne et al. 2016; Wartenburger et al., submitted; Greve et al., submitted). In several regions, significant differences in the occurrence of climate extremes can be identified already for half a degree of warming when assessing changes at 1.5°C vs 2°C global warming. An important feature is the much stronger warming of hot extremes in several continental regions compared to the global mean warming, which implies that temperature extremes can warm regionally by much more than 1.5°C, even if global temperature warming is stabilized at this level (e.g. up to 6°C for certain models in the Arctic). This feature is due to a combination of feedbacks and internal climate variability. We highlight in particular the importance of land-climate feedbacks for projected changes in hot extremes in mid-latitude regions (Vogel et al. 2017). Because of the strong effects of land processes on regional changes in temperature extremes, changes in land surface properties, including land use changes, are found to be particularly important for projections in low-emissions scenarios (Hirsch et al. 2017; Guillod et al., submitted). References: Greve, P., et al.: Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change. Submitted. Guillod, B.P., et al.: Land use in low climate warming targets critical for hot extreme projections. Submitted. Hirsch, A.L., et al., 2017: Can climate-effective land management reduce regional warming? J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 122, 2269-2288, doi:10.1002/2016JD026125. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2016: Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets. Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542. Vogel, M.M., et al., 2017: Regional amplification of projected changes in extreme temperatures strongly controlled by soil moisture-temperature feedbacks. Geophysical Research Letters, 44(3), 1511-1519. Wartenburger, R., et al.: Changes in regional climate extremes as a function of global mean temperature: an interactive plotting framework. Geosci. Model Dev. - Submitt.,

U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shipp, Allison A.

2012-01-01

On September 14, 2009, the Secretary of the Interior signed a Secretarial Order (No. 3289) entitled, "Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America's Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources." The Order effectively established the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) for the purpose of integrating DOI science and management expertise with similar contributions from our partners to provide information to support strategic adaptation and mitigation efforts on public and private lands across the United States and internationally. The South Central Climate Science Center (SC CSC) is supported by a consortium of partners that include The University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, The Chickasaw Nation, The Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Additionally, the SC CSC will collaborate with a number of other universities, State and federal agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) with interests and expertise in climate science. The primary partners of the SC CSC are the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), which include the Desert, Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers, Great Plains, Gulf Coast Prairie, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks, and Southern Rockies. CSC collaborations are focused on common science priorities that address priority partner needs, eliminate redundancies in science, share scientific information and findings, and expand understanding of climate change impacts in the south-central United States and Mexico.

Using Rapid-Response Scenario-Building Methodology for Climate Change Adaptation Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, K. A.; Stoepler, T. M.; Schuster, R.

2015-12-01

Rapid-response scenario-building methodology can be modified to develop scenarios for slow-onset disasters associated with climate change such as drought. Results of a collaboration between the Department of the Interior (DOI) Strategic Sciences Group (SSG) and the Southwest Colorado Social-Ecological Climate Resilience Project are presented in which SSG scenario-building methods were revised and applied to climate change adaptation planning in Colorado's Gunnison Basin, United States. The SSG provides the DOI with the capacity to rapidly assemble multidisciplinary teams of experts to develop scenarios of the potential environmental, social, and economic cascading consequences of environmental crises, and to analyze these chains to determine actionable intervention points. By design, the SSG responds to acute events of a relatively defined duration. As a capacity-building exercise, the SSG explored how its scenario-building methodology could be applied to outlining the cascading consequences of slow-onset events related to climate change. SSG staff facilitated two workshops to analyze the impacts of drought, wildfire, and insect outbreak in the sagebrush and spruce-fir ecosystems. Participants included local land managers, natural and social scientists, ranchers, and other stakeholders. Key findings were: 1) scenario framing must be adjusted to accommodate the multiple, synergistic components and longer time frames of slow-onset events; 2) the development of slow-onset event scenarios is likely influenced by participants having had more time to consider potential consequences, relative to acute events; 3) participants who are from the affected area may have a more vested interest in the outcome and/or may be able to directly implement interventions.

Potential soil organic carbon stocks in semi arid areas under climate change scenarios: an application of CarboSOIL model in northern Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Abd-Elmabod, Sameh K.; Jordán, Antonio; Zavala, Lorena M.; Anaya-Romero, Maria; De la Rosa, Diego

2014-05-01

1. INTRODUCTION Climate change is predicted to have a large impact on semi arid areas which are often degraded and vulnerable to environmental changes (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b; 2013). However, these areas might play a key role in mitigation of climate change effects through sequestration of carbon in soils (United Nations, 2011). At the same time, increasing organic carbon in these environments could be beneficial for soil erosion control, soil fertility and, ultimately, food production (Lal, 2004). Several approaches have been carried out to evaluate climate change impacts on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, but soil carbon models are amongst the most effective tools to assess C stocks, dynamics and distribution and to predict trends under climate change scenarios (Jones et al., 2005 ). CarboSOIL is an empirical model based on regression techniques and developed to predict SOC contents at standard soil depths of 0 to 25, 25 to 50 and 50-75 cm (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013). CarboSOIL model has been designed as a GIS-integrated tool and is a new component of the agroecological decision support system for land evaluation MicroLEIS DSS (De la Rosa et al., 2004). 2. GENERAL METHODS In this research, CarboSOIL was applied in El-Fayoum depression, a semi arid region located in northern Egypt with a large potential for agriculture (Abd-Elmabod et al, 2012). The model was applied in a total of six soil-units classified according the USDA Soil Taxonomy system within the orders Entisols and Aridisols under different climate climate change scenarios. Global climate models based on the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (Agrawala at al., 2004) and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) were applied to predict short-, medium- and long-term trends (2030, 2050 and 2100) of SOC dynamics and sequestration at different soil depths (0-25, 25-50 and 50-75) and land use types (irrigated areas, olive groves, wheat, cotton and other annual crops, and fruit trees and berries). 3. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS According to results, considerable decreases of SOC stocks are expected in the 25-50 cm soil section under all considered land use types and all projected scenarios, in particular in Vertic Torrifluvents and Typic Torrifluvents under wheat, cotton and other annual crops. Oppositely, SOC stocks tend to increase in the deeper soil section (50-75 cm), mostly in Typic Haplocalcids under permanently irrigated areas and olive groves in the 2100 scenario. In the upper layer (0-25 cm), slight increases have been predicted under all considered land use types. The methodology used in this research could be applied to other semi arid areas with available soil, land use and climate data. Moreover, the information developed in this study might support decision-making for land use planning, agricultural management and climate adaptation strategies in semi arid regions. REFERENCES Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Ali, R.R., Anaya-Romero, M., Jordán, A., Muñoz-Rojas, M., Abdelmageed, T.A., Zavala, L.M., De la Rosa, D. 2012. Evaluating soil degradation under different scenarios of agricultural land management in Mediterranean region. Nature and Science 10, 103-116. Agrawala, S., A. Moehner, M. El Raey, D. Conway, M. van Aalst, M. Hagenstad and J. Smith. 2004. Development and Climate Change In Egypt: Focus on Coastal Resources and the Nile. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. De la Rosa, D., Mayol, F., Moreno, F., Cabrera, F., Díaz-Pereira, E., Antoine, J. 2002. A multilingual soil profile database (SDBm Plus) as an essential part of land resources information systems. Environmental Modelling & Software 17, 721-730. DOI: 10.1016/S1364-8152(02)00031-2. IPCC. 2007. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge/New York: Cambridge University Press Jones, C., McConnell, C., Coleman, K., Cox, P., Falloon, P., Jenkinson, D. and Powlson, D. 2005. Global climate change and soil carbon stocks; predictions from two contrasting models for the turnover of organic carbon in soil. Global Change Biology 11: 154-166 Lal, R. 2004. Soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change. Geoderma 123, 1-22. DOI: 10.1016/j.geoderma.2004.01.032. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Jordán, A., Zavala, L.M., De la Rosa, D., Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Anaya-Romero, M. 2012a. Impact of land use and land cover changes on organic carbon stocks in Mediterranean soils (1956-2007). Land Degradation & Development. In press. DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2194. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Jordán, A., Zavala, L.M., De la Rosa, D., Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Anaya-Romero, M. 2012b. Organic carbon stocks in Mediterranean soil types under different land uses (Southern Spain). Solid Earth 3, 375-386. DOI: 10.5194/se-3-375-2012. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Jordán, A., Zavala, L.M., González-Peñaloza, F.A., De la Rosa, D., Anaya-Romero, M. 2013. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks in global change scenarios: a CarboSOIL application. Biogeosciences Discussions 10, 10997-11035. DOI: 10.5194/bgd-10-10997-2013. United Nations. 2011. Global Drylands: A UN system-wide response. Full Report. United Nations Environment Management Group.

The Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center synthesis report 2011–15—Projects, products, and science priorities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varela Minder, Elda; Lascurain, Aranzazu R.; McMahon, Gerard

2016-09-28

IntroductionIn 2009, the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar established a network of eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSCs) that, along with the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), would help define and implement the Department's climate adaptation response. The Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) was established at North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, in 2010, under a 5-year cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), to identify and address the regional challenges presented by climate change and variability in the Southeastern United States. All eight regional CSC hosts, including NCSU, were selected through a competitive process.Since its opening, the focus of the SE CSC has been on working with partners in the identification and development of research-based information that can assist managers, including cultural and natural resource managers, in adapting to global change processes, such as climate and land use change, that operate at local to global scales and affect resources important to the DOI mission. The SE CSC was organized to accomplish three goals:Provide co-produced, researched based, actionable science that supports transparent global change adaptation decisions.Convene conversations among decision makers, scientists, and managers to identify key ecosystem adaptation decisions driven by climate and land use change, the values and objectives that will be used to make decisions, and the research-based information needed to assess adaptation options.Build the capacity of natural resource professionals, university faculty, and students to understand and frame natural resource adaptation decisions and develop and use research-based information to make adaptation decisions.This report provides an overview of the SE CSC and the projects developed by the SE CSC since its inception. An important goal of this report is to provide a framework for understanding the evolution of the SE CSC science agenda, which has evolved over the first 5 years of the Center’s operation.

Hydrological response to changing climate conditions: Spatial streamflow variability in the boreal region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teutschbein, Claudia; Grabs, Thomas; Karlsen, Reinert H.; Laudon, Hjalmar; Bishop, Kevin

2016-04-01

It has long been recognized that streamflow-generating processes are not only dependent on climatic conditions, but also affected by physical catchment properties such as topography, geology, soils and land cover. We hypothesize that these landscape characteristics do not only lead to highly variable hydrologic behavior of rather similar catchments under the same stationary climate conditions (Karlsen et al., 2014), but that they also play a fundamental role for the sensitivity of a catchment to a changing climate (Teutschbein et al., 2015). A multi-model ensemble based on 15 regional climate models was combined with a multi-catchment approach to explore the hydrologic sensitivity of 14 partially nested and rather similar catchments in Northern Sweden to changing climate conditions and the importance of small-scale spatial variability. Current (1981-2010) and future (2061-2090) streamflow was simulated with the HBV model. As expected, projected increases in temperature and precipitation resulted in increased total available streamflow, with lower spring and summer flows, but substantially higher winter streamflow. Furthermore, significant changes in flow durations with lower chances of both high and low flows can be expected in boreal Sweden in the future. This overall trend in projected streamflow pattern changes was comparable among the analyzed catchments while the magnitude of change differed considerably. This suggests that catchments belonging to the same region can show distinctly different degrees of hydrological responses to the same external climate change signal. We reason that differences in spatially distributed physical catchment properties at smaller scales are not only of great importance for current streamflow behavior, but also play a major role as first-order control for the sensitivity of catchments to changing climate conditions. References Karlsen, R.H., T. Grabs, K. Bishop, H. Laudon, and J. Seibert (2014). Landscape controls on spatiotemporal variability of specific discharge in a boreal region, Abstract #H52B-07 presented at 2014 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 15-19 Dec. [Available at http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2014AGUFM.H52B..07K, last accessed 11 Jan 2016]. Teutschbein, C., T. Grabs, R.H. Karlsen, H. Laudon and K. Bishop (2015). Hydrological Response to Changing Climate Conditions: Spatial Streamflow Variability in the Boreal Region, Water Resour Res, doi: 10.1002/2015WR017337. [Available at http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015WR017337/abstract, last accessed 11 Jan 2016].

Seeing the forest and the trees: USGS scientist links local changes to global scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Jim; Allen, Craig D.

2011-01-01

The recent recipient of two major awards, Craig D. Allen, a research ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey Fort Collins Science Center, has loved trees since childhood. He is now considered an expert of world renown on the twin phenomena of forest changes and tree mortality resulting from climate warming and drought, and in 2010 was twice recognized for his scientific contributions.In December 2010, Dr. Allen was named a 2010 Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science “for outstanding leadership in the synthesis of global forest responses to climate change, built from worldwide collaboration and a deep understanding of the environmental history of the southwestern United States.”In March 2010, he was honored with the Meritorious Service Award from the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) in recognition of his outstanding vision, initiative, and scientific contributions to the USGS, DOI, and U.S. Department of Agriculture in establishing a model science program to support adaptive land management at the new Valles Caldera National Preserve in north-central New Mexico.Dr. Allen has authored more than 85 publications on landscape ecology and landscape change, from fire history and ecology to ecosystem responses to climate change. He has appeared on NOVA discussing fire ecology and on The Discovery Channel and Discovery Canada explaining the links between drought-induced tree mortality and climate warming, in addition to being interviewed and quoted in innumerable newspaper articles on both topics.But how did this unassuming scientist grow from nurturing maple saplings on 40 acres in Wisconsin to understanding forest system stress worldwide?

Interior Secretary Highlights Key Trends, Including Climate Change and Fiscal Constraint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2014-06-01

Climate change is "the defining issue of our time," Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Sally Jewell said during her 18 June keynote addess at the AGU Science Policy Conference in Washington, D. C. The United States has to "lead by example. We can't be the largest economy in the world and the second largest producer of carbon in the world"—after China—"and not take care of our own problems first to demonstrate to the world what needs to be done," she said.

The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jerez, Sonia; Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Montávez, Juan Pedro; María López-Romero, Jose; Thais, Françoise; Bartok, Blanka; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Nikulin, Grigory; Kotlarski, Sven; van Meijgaard, Erik; Teichmann, Claas; Wild, Martin

2016-04-01

Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared to the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range [-14%;+2%], with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector. Reference: S. Jerez, I. Tobin, R. Vautard, J.P. Montávez, J.M. López-Romero, F. Thais, B. Bartok, O.B. Christensen, A. Colette, M. Déqué, G. Nikulin, S. Kotlarski, E. van Meijgaard, C. Teichmann and M. Wild (2015). The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe. Nature Communications, 6, 10014, doi: 10.1038/ncomms10014.

A multi-decadal wind-wave hindcast for the North Sea 1949-2014: coastDat2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groll, Nikolaus; Weisse, Ralf

2017-12-01

Long and consistent wave data are important for analysing wave climate variability and change. Moreover, such wave data are also needed in coastal and offshore design and for addressing safety-related issues at sea. Using the third-generation spectral wave model WAM a multi-decadal wind-wave hindcast for the North Sea covering the period 1949-2014 was produced. The hindcast is part of the coastDat database representing a consistent and homogeneous met-ocean data set. It is shown that despite not being perfect, data from the wave hindcast are generally suitable for wave climate analysis. In particular, comparisons of hindcast data with in situ and satellite observations show on average a reasonable agreement, while a tendency towards overestimation of the highest waves could be inferred. Despite these limitations, the wave hindcast still provides useful data for assessing wave climate variability and change as well as for risk analysis, in particular when conservative estimates are needed. Hindcast data are stored at the World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) and can be freely accessed using the doi:10.1594/WDCC/coastDat-2_WAM-North_Sea Groll and Weisse(2016) or via the coastDat web-page http://www.coastdat.de.

Evaluation of skill at simulating heatwave and heat-humidity indices in Global and Regional Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldie, J. K.; Alexander, L. V.; Lewis, S. C.; Sherwood, S. C.

2017-12-01

A wide body of literature now establishes the harm of extreme heat on human health, and work is now emerging on the projection of future health impacts. However, heat-health relationships vary across different populations (Gasparrini et al. 2015), so accurate simulation of regional climate is an important component of joint health impact projection. Here, we evaluate the ability of nine Global Climate Models (GCMs) from CMIP5 and the NARCliM Regional Climate Model to reproduce a selection of 15 health-relevant heatwave and heat-humidity indices over the historical period (1990-2005) using the Perkins skill score (Perkins et al. 2007) in five Australian cities. We explore the reasons for poor model skill, comparing these modelled distributions to both weather station observations and gridded reanalysis data. Finally, we show changes in the modelled distributions from the highest-performing models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 greenhouse gas scenarios and discuss the implications of simulated heat stress for future climate change adaptation. ReferencesGasparrini, Antonio, Yuming Guo, Masahiro Hashizume, Eric Lavigne, Antonella Zanobetti, Joel Schwartz, Aurelio Tobias, et al. "Mortality Risk Attributable to High and Low Ambient Temperature: A Multicountry Observational Study." The Lancet 386, no. 9991 (July 31, 2015): 369-75. doi:10.1016/S0140-6736(14)62114-0. Perkins, S. E., A. J. Pitman, N. J. Holbrook, and J. McAneney. "Evaluation of the AR4 Climate Models' Simulated Daily Maximum Temperature, Minimum Temperature, and Precipitation over Australia Using Probability Density Functions." Journal of Climate 20, no. 17 (September 1, 2007): 4356-76. doi:10.1175/JCLI4253.1.

The WASCAL high-resolution regional climate simulation ensemble for West Africa: concept, dissemination and assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinzeller, Dominikus; Dieng, Diarra; Smiatek, Gerhard; Olusegun, Christiana; Klein, Cornelia; Hamann, Ilse; Salack, Seyni; Bliefernicht, Jan; Kunstmann, Harald

2018-04-01

Climate change and constant population growth pose severe challenges to 21st century rural Africa. Within the framework of the West African Science Service Center on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL), an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate change scenarios for the greater West African region is provided to support the development of effective adaptation and mitigation measures. This contribution presents the overall concept of the WASCAL regional climate simulations, as well as detailed information on the experimental design, and provides information on the format and dissemination of the available data. All data are made available to the public at the CERA long-term archive of the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) with a subset available at the PANGAEA Data Publisher for Earth & Environmental Science portal (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.880512). A brief assessment of the data are presented to provide guidance for future users. Regional climate projections are generated at high (12 km) and intermediate (60 km) resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The simulations cover the validation period 1980-2010 and the two future periods 2020-2050 and 2070-2100. A brief comparison to observations and two climate change scenarios from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) initiative is presented to provide guidance on the data set to future users and to assess their climate change signal. Under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) scenario, the results suggest an increase in temperature by 1.5 °C at the coast of Guinea and by up to 3 °C in the northern Sahel by the end of the 21st century, in line with existing climate projections for the region. They also project an increase in precipitation by up to 300 mm per year along the coast of Guinea, by up to 150 mm per year in the Soudano region adjacent in the north and almost no change in precipitation in the Sahel. This stands in contrast to existing regional climate projections, which predict increasingly drier conditions.The high spatial and temporal resolution of the data, the extensive list of output variables, the large computational domain and the long time periods covered make this data set a unique resource for follow-up analyses and impact modelling studies over the greater West African region. The comprehensive documentation and standardisation of the data facilitate and encourage their use within and outside of the WASCAL community.

Humans reclaimed lands in NorthEastern Italy and artificial drainage networks: effects of 30 years of Agricultural Surface Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofia, Giulia; Pizzulli, Federica; Tarolli, Paolo

2017-04-01

Agriculture and land-use management has changed drastically in Italy since the end of the Second World War, driven by local but also European agricultural policies. As a result of these changes in farming practices and land use, many drainage networks have changed producing a greater exposure to flooding with a broad range of impacts on society, also because of climate inputs coupling with the human drivers. This study focuses on two main points: which kind of land use and farming changes have been observed in the most recent years ( 30 years)? How do these changes interact with climate and soil conditions? An open challenge to understand how these changes influence the watershed response, is, in fact, to understand if rainfall characteristics and climate have a synergistic effect, if their interaction matters, or to understand what element has the greatest influence on the watershed response connected to agricultural changes. The work is based on a simple model of water infiltration due to soil properties, and a connected evaluation of the distributed surface water storage offered by artificial drainage networks in a study area in Veneto (north-eastern Italy). The analysis shows that economic changes control the development of agro-industrial landscapes, with effects on the hydrological response. However, these changes deeply interact with antecedent soil conditions and climate characteristics. Intense and irregular rainfall events and events with a high recurrence should be expected to be the most critical. The presented outcomes highlight the importance of understanding how agricultural practices can be the driver of or can be used to avoid, or at least mitigate, flooding. The proposed methods can be valuable tools in evaluating the costs and benefits of the management of water in agriculture to inform better policy decision-making. References Sofia G, Tarolli P. 2017. Hydrological Response to 30 years of Agricultural Surface Water Management. Land 6 (1): 3 DOI: 10.3390/land6010003 Sofia G, Roder G, Dalla Fontana G, Tarolli P. 2017. Flood dynamics in urbanised landscapes: 100 years of climate and humans' interaction. Scientific Reports 7, 40527 DOI: 10.1038/srep40527

Improving modelled impacts on the flowering of temperate fruit trees in the Iberian Peninsula of climate change projections for 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Pérez-Lopez, David; Sánchez-Sánchez, Enrique; Centeno, Ana; Dosio, Alessandro; Lopez-de-la-Franca, Noelia

2013-04-01

Flowering of temperate trees needs winter chilling, being the specific requirements dependent on the variety. This work studied the trend and changes of values of chilling hours for some representative agricultural locations in Spain for the last three decades and their projected changes under climate change scenarios. According to our previous results (Pérez-López et al., 2012), areas traditionally producing fruit as the Ebro (NE of Spain) or Guadalquivir (SO) valleys, Murcia (SE) and Extremadura (SO) could have a major cold reduction of chill-hours. This would drive a change of varieties or species and may enhance the use of chemicals to complete the needs of chill hours for flowering. However, these results showed high uncertainty, partly due to the bias of the climate data used, generated by Regional Climate Models. The chilling hours were calculated with different methods according to the species considered: North Carolina method (Shaltout and Unrath, 1983) was used for apples, Utah method (Richardson et al. 1974) for peach and grapevine and the approach used by De Melo-Abreu et al. (2004) for olive trees. The climate data used as inputs were the results of numerical simulations obtained from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/) first bias corrected for temperatures and precipitation (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012). This work aims to improve the impact projections obtained in Pérez-López et al. (2012). For this purpose, variation of chill-hours between 2nd half of 20th century and 1st half of 21st century at the study locations were recalculated considering 1) a feedback in the dates in which the chilling hours are calculated, to take into account the shift of phenological dates, and 2) substituting the original ENSEMBLES data set of climate used in Pérez-López et al. (2012) by the bias corrected data set. Calculations for the 2nd half of 20th century will be used to evaluate the quality of the new data set of projections. Acknowledgements This research has been funded by project PEII10-0248-5680 from Junta de Comunidades de Castilla-La Mancha, Spain. References De Melo-Abreu, J. P. Barranco D. Cordeiro, A. M. Tous, J. Rogado, B. M. Villalobos, F. J. 2004. Modelling olive flowering date using chilling for dormancy release and thermal time. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 125: 117-127. Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate . Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116, D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 117, D17, doi: 10.1029/2012JD017968 Herrera et. al. (2012) Development and Analysis of a 50 year high-resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain (Spain02). International Journal of Climatology 32:74-85 DOI: 10.1002/joc.2256. Pérez-López; D., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Sánchez-Sánchez. E., Centeno A., Prieto-Egido, I., and López-de-la-Franca, N., 2012. Influence of climate change on the flowering of temperate fruit trees. Geophysical Research Abstracts Vol. 14, EGU2012-5774, EGU General Assembly 2012. Richardson, E.A. Seeley, S.D. Walker, D.R. 1974. A model for estimating the completion of rest for 'Redhaven' and 'Elberta' peach trees. HortScience, 9: 331-332. Shaltout, A.D. Unrath, C. r. 1983. Rest completion prediction model for 'Starkrimson Delicious' apples. J. Amer. Soc. Hort. Sci., 108: 957-961.

Collaboration for Actionable Climate Science in Hawaii and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keener, V. W.; Grecni, Z. N.; Helweg, D. A.

2016-12-01

Hawaii and the US-Affiliated Pacific Islands (USAPI) encompass more than 2000 islands spread across millions of square miles of ocean. Islands can be high volcanic or low atolls, and vary widely in terms of geography, climate, ecology, language, culture, economies, government, and vulnerability to climate change impacts. For these reasons, meaningful collaboration across research groups and climate organizations is not only helpful, it is mandatory. No single group can address all the needs of every island, stakeholder, or sector, which has led to close collaboration and leveraging of research in the region to fill different niches. The NOAA-funded Pacific Regional Integrated Sciences & Assessments (RISA) program, DOI Pacific Islands Climate Science Center (PICSC), and the DOI LCC the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC) all take a stakeholder oriented approach to climate research, and have successfully collaborated on both specific projects and larger initiatives. Examples of these collaborations include comprising the core team of the Pacific Islands Regional Climate Assessment (PIRCA), the regional arm of the US National Climate Assessment, co-sponsoring a workshop on regional downscaling for scientists and managers, leveraging research projects across multiple sectors on a single island, collaborating on communication products such as handouts and websites to ensure a consistent message, and in the case of the Pacific RISA and the PICSC, jointly funding a PIRCA Sustained Assessment Specialist position. Barriers to collaboration have been around topics such as roles of research versus granting groups, perceived research overlap, and funding uncertainties. However, collaborations have been overwhelming positive in the Pacific Islands region due to communication, recognition of partners' strengths and expertise, and especially because of the "umbrella" organization and purpose provided by the PIRCA structure, which provides a shared platform for all regional groups working on climate science and adaptation, not owned by any one group. This work will give examples of successes and barriers encountered in the region.

Detecting and Attributing Health Burdens to Climate Change.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; Ogden, Nicholas H; Semenza, Jan C; Woodward, Alistair

2017-08-07

Detection and attribution of health impacts caused by climate change uses formal methods to determine a ) whether the occurrence of adverse health outcomes has changed, and b ) the extent to which that change could be attributed to climate change. There have been limited efforts to undertake detection and attribution analyses in health. Our goal was to show a range of approaches for conducting detection and attribution analyses. Case studies for heatwaves, Lyme disease in Canada, and Vibrio emergence in northern Europe highlight evidence that climate change is adversely affecting human health. Changes in rates and geographic distribution of adverse health outcomes were detected, and, in each instance, a proportion of the observed changes could, in our judgment, be attributed to changes in weather patterns associated with climate change. The results of detection and attribution studies can inform evidence-based risk management to reduce current, and plan for future, changes in health risks associated with climate change. Gaining a better understanding of the size, timing, and distribution of the climate change burden of disease and injury requires reliable long-term data sets, more knowledge about the factors that confound and modify the effects of climate on health, and refinement of analytic techniques for detection and attribution. At the same time, significant advances are possible in the absence of complete data and statistical certainty: there is a place for well-informed judgments, based on understanding of underlying processes and matching of patterns of health, climate, and other determinants of human well-being. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1509.

Effect of Mars Atmospheric Loss on Snow Melt Potential in a 3.5 Gyr Mars Climate Evolution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansfield, Megan; Kite, Edwin S.; Mischna, Michael A.

2018-04-01

Post-Noachian Martian paleochannels indicate the existence of liquid water on the surface of Mars after about 3.5 Gya (Irwin et al., 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.10.012; Palucis et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JE004905). In order to explore the effects of variations in CO2 partial pressure and obliquity on the possibility of surface water, we created a zero-dimensional surface energy balance model. We combine this model with physically consistent orbital histories to track conditions over the last 3.5 Gyr of Martian history. We find that melting is allowed for atmospheric pressures corresponding to exponential loss rates of dP/dt∝t-3.73 or faster, but this rate is within 0.5σ of the rate calculated from initial measurements made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission, if we assume all the escaping oxygen measured by MAVEN comes from atmospheric CO2 (Lillis et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JA023525; Tu et al., 2015, https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/201526146). Melting at this loss rate matches selected key geologic constraints on the formation of Hesperian river networks, assuming optimal melt conditions during the warmest part of each Mars year (Irwin et al., 2015, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2014.10.012; Kite, Gao, et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo3033; Kite, Sneed et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL072660; Stopar et al., 2006, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gca.2006.07.039). The atmospheric pressure has a larger effect on the surface energy than changes in Mars's mean obliquity. These results show that initial measurements of atmosphere loss by MAVEN are consistent with atmospheric loss being the dominant process that switched Mars from a melt-permitting to a melt-absent climate (Jakosky et al., 2017, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aai7721), but non-CO2 warming will be required if <2 Gya paleochannels are confirmed or if most of the escaping oxygen measured by MAVEN comes from H2O.

Geoengineering to Avoid Overshoot: An Analysis of Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Katsumasa; Cho, Cheolhung; Krey, Volker; Patt, Anthony; Rafaj, Peter; Rao-Skirbekk, Shilpa; Wagner, Fabian

2010-05-01

Even if a drastic 50% CO2-equivalent emissions reduction is achieved by year 2050, the chances of exceeding a 2°C warming are still substantial due to the uncertainty in the climate system (Meinshausen et al., 2009). Moreover, a strong mitigation is accompanied by overshoot, in which the global-mean temperature temporarily exceeds the target before arriving there. We are motivated by the question as to how much geoengineering would be considered if it were to be used to avoid overshoot even combined with a strong mitigation? How serious would the side effects be expected? This study focuses on stratospheric sulfur injections among other geoengineering proposals, the idea of which has been put forward by Crutzen (2006) and reviewed by Rasch et al. (2008). There are a number of concerns over geoengineering (e.g. Robock, 2008). But the concept of geoengineering requires further research (AMS, 2009). Studying geoengineering may be instructive to revisit the importance of mainstream mitigation strategies. The motivations above led to the following two closely linked studies: 1) Mitigation and Geoengineering The first study investigates the magnitude and start year of geoengineering intervention with the intent to avoid overshoot. This study explores the sensitivity of geoengineering profile to associated uncertainties in the climate system (climate sensitivity, tropospheric aerosol forcing, and ocean diffusivity) and in mitigation scenarios (target uncertainty (450ppm CO2-eq and 400ppm CO2-eq) and baseline uncertainty (A2, B1, and B2)). This study builds on Wigley's premise that demonstrated a basic potential of such a combined mitigation/geoengineering approach (Wigley, 2006) - however it did not examine the sensitivity of the climate response to any underlying uncertainties. This study uses a set of GGI low mitigation scenarios generated from the MESSAGE model (Riahi et al., 2007). The reduced-complexity climate and carbon cycle model ACC2 (Tanaka, 2008; Tanaka et al., 2009) is employed to calculate climate responses including associated uncertainty and to estimate geoengineering profiles to cap the warming at 2°C since preindustrial. The inversion setup for the model ACC2 is used to estimate the uncertain parameters (e.g. climate sensitivity) against associated historical observations (e.g. global-mean surface air temperature). Our preliminary results show that under climate and scenario uncertainties, a geoengineering intervention to avoid an overshoot would be with medium intensity in the latter half of this century (≈ 1 Mt. Pinatubo eruption every 4 years in terms of stratospheric sulfur injections). The start year of geoengineering intervention does not significantly influence the long-term geoengineering profile. However, a geoengineering intervention of the medium intensity could bring about substantial environmental side effects such as the destruction of stratospheric ozone. Our results point to the necessity to pursue persistently mainstream mitigation efforts. 2) Pollution Abatement and Geoengineering The second study examines the potential of geoengineering combined with air clean policy. A drastic air pollution abatement might result in an abrupt warming because it would suddenly remove the tropospheric aerosols which partly offset the background global warming (e.g. Andreae et al, 2005, Raddatz and Tanaka, 2010). This study investigates the magnitude of unrealized warming under a range of policy assumptions and associated uncertainties. Then the profile of geoengineering is estimated to suppress the warming that would be accompanied by clean air policy. This study is the first attempt to explore uncertainty in the warming caused by clean air policy - Kloster et al. (2009), which assess regional changes in climate and hydrological cycle, has not however included associated uncertainties in the analysis. A variety of policy assumptions will be devised to represent various degrees of air pollution abatement. These assumptions are used in the GAINS model to generate pollutants emissions scenarios. Such scenarios are combined with a set of GGI low mitigation scenarios and prescribed to the climate and carbon cycle model ACC2. ACC2 is employed to quantify the warming due to air pollution abatement and the geoengineering profile to avoid such a warming. Furthermore, the implications of such geoengineering interventions (e.g. ecosystem impact and adaptation capacity) are examined. References AMS (Americal Meteorological Society) (2009) A Policy Statement on 20 July 2009. http://www.ametsoc.org/policy/2009geoengineeringclimate_amsstatement.pdf Andreae (2005) Nature, 435, 1187-1190, doi:10.1038/nature03671. Crutzen (2006) Climatic Change, 77, 211-219. Kloster et al. (2009) Climate Dynamics, 33, doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0573-0. Meinshausen et al. (2009) Nature, 458, 1158-1162, doi:10.1038/nature08017. Raddatz and Tanaka (2010) Prepared for a re-submission to Geophysical Research Letters. Rasch et al. (2008) Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A, 366, 4007-4037, doi:10.1098/rsta.2008.0131. Riahi et al. (2007) Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 74, 887-935, doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2006.05.026. Robock (2008) Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 64, 14-18, doi: 10.2968/064002006. Tanaka (2008) Ph.D. thesis. International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Hamburg, Germany. http://www.sub.uni-hamburg.de/opus/volltexte/2008/3654/ Tanaka et al. (2009) Geophysical Research Letters, 36, L16709, doi:10.1029/2009GL039642. Wigley (2008) Science, 314, 452-454, doi:10.1126/science.1131728.

Climate Change Attribution: When Is It Appropriate to Accept New Methods?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lloyd, Elisabeth A.; Oreskes, Naomi

2018-03-01

The most common approaches to detection and attribution (D&A) of extreme weather events using fraction of attributable risk or risk ratio answer a particular form of research question, namely "What is the probability of a certain class of weather events, given global climate change, relative to a world without?" In a set of recent papers, Trenberth et al. (2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2657) and Shepherd (2016, https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-016-0033-y) have argued that this is not always the best tool for analyzing causes, or for communicating with the public about climate events and extremes. Instead, they promote the idea of a "storyline" approach, which asks complementary questions, such as "How much did climate change affect the severity of a given storm?" From the vantage of history and philosophy of science, a proposal to introduce a new approach or to answer different research questions—especially those of public interest—does not appear particularly controversial. However, the proposal proved highly controversial, with the majority of D&A scientists reacting in a very negative and even personal manner. Some suggested the proposed alternatives amount to a weakening of standards, or an abandonment of scientific method. Here, we address the question: Why is this such a controversial proposition? We argue that there is no "right" or "wrong" approach to D&A in any absolute sense, but rather that in different contexts, society may have a greater or lesser concern with errors of a particular type. How we view the relative risk of overestimation versus underestimation of harm is context-dependent.

Modelling soil organic carbon stocks along topographic transects under climate change scenarios using CarboSOIL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotb Abd-Elmabod, Sameh; Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Jordán, Antonio; Anaya-Romero, María; de la Rosa, Diego

2014-05-01

CarboSOIL is a land evaluation model for soil organic carbon (SOC) accounting under global change scenarios (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2013a; 2013b) and is a new component of the MicroLEIS Decision Support System. MicroLEIS is a tool for decision-makers dealing with specific agro-ecological problems as, for example, soil contamination risks (Abd-Elmabod et al., 2010; Abd-Elmabod et al., 2012)which has been designed as a knowledge-based approach incorporating a set of interlinked data bases. Global change and land use changes in recent decades have caused relevant impacts in vegetation carbon stocks (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2011) and soil organic carbon stocks, especially in sensible areas as the Mediterranean region (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2012a; 2012b). This study aims to investigate the influence of topography, climate, land use and soil factors on SOC stocks by the application of CarboSOIL in a representative area of the Mediterranean region (Seville, Spain). Two topographic transects (S-N and W-E oriented) were considered, including 63 points separated 4 km each. These points are associated to 41 soil profiles extracted from the SDBm soil data base (De la Rosa et al., 2001) and climatic information (average minimum temperature, average maximum temperature and average rainfall per month) extracted from raster data bases (Andalusian Environmental Information Network, REDIAM). CarboSOIL has been applied along topographic transects at different soil depths and under different climate change scenarios. Climate scenarios have been calculated according to the global climate model (CNRMCM3) by extracting spatial climate data under IPCC A1B scenario for the current period (average data from 1960-2000), 2040, 2070 and 2100. In the current scenario, results show that the highest SOC stock values located on Typic Haploxeralfs under olive groves for soil sections 0-25 cm and for 25-50 cm, but the highest values were determined on fruit-cropped Rendolic Xerothent in the 50-75cm section. On the other hand, lowest SOC stock values have been observed on sections 0-25 and 25-50 cm from Aquic Haploxeralf under wheat, cotton and other annual crops and vineyards, respectively. The lowest SOC values were determined in section 50-75 cm from Typic Ochraqualfs under olive groves. CarboSOIL predicted increases of SOC stocks in future climate scenarios in the upper soil section (0-25 cm) for areas under rotating wheat, cotton and other annual crops. In this case, SOC stocks increases are considerably larger in the areas above 400 masl. In the 25-50 cm soil section, SOC stocks are expected to decrease in the 2040 scenario and then increase in the following 2070 and 2100 scenarios, particularly in olive-cropped areas. Oppositely, SOC stocks from olive-cropped soils will decrease in the 50-75 soil section in the 2070 scenario. Key words: Carbon sequestration, Global change, Land evaluation, MicroLEIS DSS, Topography. References Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Ali, R.R., Anaya-Romero, M., De la Rosa, D. 2010. Evaluating soil contamination risks using MicroLEIS DSS in El-Fayoum province, Egypt. In: 2nd International Conference on Chemical, Biological and Environmental Engineering (ICBEE), 2-4 November, 2010. Cairo. Pp.: 1-5. DOI: 10.1109/ICBEE.2010.5651591. Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Ali, R.R., Anaya-Romero, M., Jordán, A., Muñoz-Rojas, M., Abdelmageed, T.A., Zavala, L.M., De la Rosa, D. 2012. Evaluating soil degradation under different scenarios of agricultural land management in Mediterranean región. Nature and Science 10, 103-116. De la Rosa, D., Mayol, F., Moreno, F., Cabrera, F., Díaz-Pereira, E., Antoine, J. 2002. A multilingual soil profile database (SDBm Plus) as an essential part of land resources information systems. Environmental Modelling & Software 17, 721-730. DOI: 10.1016/S1364-8152(02)00031-2 Muñoz-Rojas, M., De la Rosa, D., Zavala, L.M., Jordán, A., Anaya-Romero, M. 2011. Changes in land cover and vegetation carbon stocks in Andalusia, Southern Spain (1956-2007). Science of the Total Environment 409, 2796-2806. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.04.009. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Jordán, A., Zavala, L.M., De la Rosa, D., Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Anaya-Romero, M. 2012a. Impact of land use and land cover changes on organic carbon stocks in Mediterranean soils (1956-2007). Land Degradation & Development. In press. DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2194. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Jordán, A., Zavala, L.M., De la Rosa, D., Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Anaya-Romero, M. 2012b. Organic carbon stocks in Mediterranean soil types under different land uses (Southern Spain). Solid Earth 3, 375-386. DOI: 10.5194/se-3-375-2012. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Jordán, A., Zavala, L.M., González-Peñaloza, F.A., De la Rosa, D., Anaya-Romero, M. 2013a. Modelling soil organic carbon stocks in global change scenarios: a CarboSOIL application. Biogeosciences Discussions 10, 10997-11035. DOI: 10.5194/bgd-10-10997-2013. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Jordán, A., Zavala, L.M., De la Rosa, D., González-Peñaloza, F.A., Abd-Elmabod, S.K., Anaya-Romero, M. 2013b. Climate change impacts on carbon stocks of Mediterranean soils: a CarboSOIL model application. Geophysical Research Abstracts 15, EGU2013 1676.

Clouds not important for control of short-term surface temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2012-01-01

In two recent papers, R. W. Spencer and W. D. Braswell (Remote Sens., 3(8), 1603- 1613, doi:10.3390/rs3081603, 2011) (SB) and R. S. Lindzen and Y.-S. Choi (Asia Pac. J. Atmos. Sci., 47(4), 377-390, doi:10.1007/s13143-011-0023-x, 2011) (LC) argue that clouds act as a primary initiator of surface temperature changes in Earth's climate system. The two sets of authors reached this conclusion by developing a method that tries to determine the Earth's surface temperature by calculating how much energy is stored in the ocean's upper layers, how much of this heat is transferred to the rest of the climate system, how clouds affect the rate at which energy escapes Earth's atmosphere, and how the surface's energy flux changes with temperature. Both studies spurred substantial debate within the media and the public, with the research by SB causing the editor of the journal in which it was published to resign, claiming it should not have been accepted by the journal. Assessing the two studies, Dessler found what he suggests are a number of methodological errors.

Earth radiation balance as observed and represented in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Schär, Christoph; Loeb, Norman; König-Langlo, Gert

2014-05-01

The genesis and evolution of Earth's climate is largely regulated by the Earth radiation balance. Despite of its key role in the context of climate change, substantial uncertainties still exist in the quantification of the magnitudes of its different components, and its representation in climate models. While the net radiative energy flows in and out of the climate system at the top of atmosphere are now known with considerable accuracy from new satellite programs such as CERES and SORCE, the energy distribution within the climate system and at the Earth's surface is less well determined. Accordingly, the magnitudes of the components of the surface energy balance have recently been controversially disputed, and potential inconsistencies between the estimated magnitudes of the global energy and water cycle have been emphasized. Here we summarize this discussion as presented in Chapter 2.3 of the 5th IPCC assessment report (AR5). In this context we made an attempt to better constrain the magnitudes of the surface radiative components with largest uncertainties. In addition to satellite observations, we thereby made extensive use of the growing number of surface observations to constrain the radiation balance not only from space, but also from the surface. We combined these observations with the latest modeling efforts performed for AR5 (CMIP5) to infer best estimates for the global mean surface radiative components. Our analyses favor global mean values of downward surface solar and thermal radiation near 185 and 342 Wm-2, respectively, which are most compatible with surface observations (Wild et al. 2013). These estimates are on the order of 10 Wm-2 lower and higher, respectively, than in some of the previous global energy balance assessments, including those presented in previous IPCC reports. It is encouraging that these estimates, which make full use of the information contained in the surface networks, coincide within 2 Wm-2 with the latest satellite-derived estimates (Kato et al. 2013), which are completely independently determined. This enhances confidence in these recent surface flux estimates. IPCC AR5 further presents increasing evidence from direct observations that the surface radiative fluxes undergo significant changes on decadal timescales, not only in their thermal components as expected from the increasing greenhouse effect, but also in the amount of solar radiation that reaches the Earth surface. In the thermal range, surface observations suggest an overall increase of downward thermal radiation in line with latest projections from the CMIP5 models and expectations from an increasing greenhouse effect. On the other hand the strong decadal changes in surface solar radiation seen in the observations ("dimming/brightening") are not fully captured by current climate models. These decadal changes in surface solar radiation may largely affect various aspects of climate change. Selected related references: Hartmann, D.L., A.M.G. Klein Tank, M. Rusticucci, L. Alexander, S. Brönnimann, Y. Charabi, F. Dentener, E. Dlugokencky, D. Easterling, A. Kaplan, B. Soden, P. Thorne, M. Wild and P.M. Zhai, 2013: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Kato, S., Loeb, N.G., Rose, F.G., Doelling, D.R., Rutan, D.A., Caldwell, T.E., Yu, L.S, and Weller, R.A., 2013: Surface irradiances consistent with CERES-derived top-of-atmosphere shortwave and longwave irradiances. Journal of Climate 26 (9):2719-2740. doi:Doi 10.1175/Jcli-D-12-00436.1 Wild, M., 2012: New Directions: A facelift for the picture of the global energy balance. Atmospheric Environment, 55, 366-367. Wild, M. 2012: Enlightening Global Dimming and Brightening. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 27-37, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1 Wild, M., Folini, D., Schär, C., Loeb, N., Dutton, E.G., and König-Langlo, G., 2013: The global energy balance from a surface perspective, Clim. Dyn., 40, 3107-3134, Doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1569-8.

Global land-cover and land-use change of the last 6000 years for climate modelling studies: the PAGES LandCover6k initiative and its first achievements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaillard, Marie-Jose; Morrison, Kathleen; Madella, Marco; Whitehouse, Nicki J.; Pages Landcover6k Sub-Coordinators

2016-04-01

The goal of the PAGES LandCover6k initiative is to provide relevant, empirical data on past anthropogenic land-cover change (land-use change) to climate modellers (e.g. the CMIP5 initiative). Land-use change is one of many climate forcings and its effect on climate is still badly understood. Among the effects of land-cover change on climate, the best known are the biogeochemical effects, and in particular the influence on the exchange of CO2 between the land surface and the atmosphere. The biogeophysical effects are less well understood, i.e. the net effect of changes in the albedo and evapotranspiration is complex. Moreover, the net effect of both biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes due to land-use change is still a matter of debate. The LandCover6k working group infers land-use data from fossil pollen records from lake sediments and peat deposits, and from historical archives and archaeological records (including pollen and other palaeoecological records such as wood and plant micro/macroremains). The working group is divided into two activities, i) pollen-based reconstructions of past land cover using pollen-vegetation modelling approaches, and mapping of pollen-based land-cover change using spatial statistics (e.g. Trondman et al., 2015; Pirzimanbein et al., 2014), and ii) upscaling and summarizing historical and archaeological data into maps of major land-use categories linked to quantitative attributes. Studies on pollen productivity of major plant taxa are an essential part of activity i). Pollen productivity estimates are available for a large number of the northern hemisphere, major plant taxa, but are still missing for large parts of the tropics for which research is currently in progress. The results of both activities are then used to revise existing Anthropogenic Land-Cover Change (ALCC) scenarios, the HYDE database (Klein-Goldewijk et al.,) and KK (Kaplan et al.,). Climate modellers (e.g. the CMIP5 initiative) can use the LandCover6k products as such (i and ii above), and/or the revised HYDE and KK ALCCs. The LandCover6k working group focuses on regions of the world where humans have had a significant impact on land cover during the last 6000 (6k) calendar years (in some regions earlier than 6k ago) through deforestation and diverse agricultural practices, i.e. the Americas, Western and Eastern Africa, Europe, and Asia. In Asia, the emphasis has been placed so far on China, India and Japan. References: Kaplan JO et al. (2009) Quaternary Science Reviews 28(27-28): 3016-3034. doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev. 2009.09.028; Klein Goldewijk K et al. (2011) Global Ecology and Biogeography 20: 73-86. doi: 10.1111/j.1466-8238.2010.00587.x; Pirzamanbein B et al. (2014) Ecol Complex 20:127-141; Trondman A-K et al. (2015) Glob Chang Biol 21:676-697. doi:10.1111/gcb.12737.

The Great American Biotic Interchange: Dispersals, Tectonics, Climate, Sea Level and Holding Pens

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

The biotic and geologic dynamics of the Great American Biotic Interchange are reviewed and revised. Information on the Marine Isotope Stage chronology, sea level changes as well as Pliocene and Pleistocene vegetation changes in Central and northern South America add to a discussion of the role of climate in facilitating trans-isthmian exchanges. Trans-isthmian land mammal exchanges during the Pleistocene glacial intervals appear to have been promoted by the development of diverse non-tropical ecologies. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10914-010-9144-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. PMID:21125025

Brown CA et al 2016 Dataset

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This dataset contains the research described in the following publication:Brown, C.A., D. Sharp, and T. Mochon Collura. 2016. Effect of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Attainment of Water Temperature Criteria in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA). Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science. 169:136-146, doi: 10.1016/j.ecss.2015.11.006.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Brown , C., D. Sharp, and T. MochonCollura. Effect of Climate Change on Water Temperature and Attainment of Water Temperature Criteria in the Yaquina Estuary, Oregon (USA). ESTUARINE, COASTAL AND SHELF SCIENCE. Elsevier Science Ltd, New York, NY, USA, 169: 136-146, (2016).

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2012-12-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels" to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b.

Future Flows Hydrology: an ensemble of daily river flow and monthly groundwater levels for use for climate change impact assessment across Great Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prudhomme, C.; Haxton, T.; Crooks, S.; Jackson, C.; Barkwith, A.; Williamson, J.; Kelvin, J.; Mackay, J.; Wang, L.; Young, A.; Watts, G.

2013-03-01

The dataset Future Flows Hydrology was developed as part of the project "Future Flows and Groundwater Levels'' to provide a consistent set of transient daily river flow and monthly groundwater level projections across England, Wales and Scotland to enable the investigation of the role of climate variability on river flow and groundwater levels nationally and how this may change in the future. Future Flows Hydrology is derived from Future Flows Climate, a national ensemble projection derived from the Hadley Centre's ensemble projection HadRM3-PPE to provide a consistent set of climate change projections for the whole of Great Britain at both space and time resolutions appropriate for hydrological applications. Three hydrological models and one groundwater level model were used to derive Future Flows Hydrology, with 30 river sites simulated by two hydrological models to enable assessment of hydrological modelling uncertainty in studying the impact of climate change on the hydrology. Future Flows Hydrology contains an 11-member ensemble of transient projections from January 1951 to December 2098, each associated with a single realisation from a different variant of HadRM3 and a single hydrological model. Daily river flows are provided for 281 river catchments and monthly groundwater levels at 24 boreholes as .csv files containing all 11 ensemble members. When separate simulations are done with two hydrological models, two separate .csv files are provided. Because of potential biases in the climate-hydrology modelling chain, catchment fact sheets are associated with each ensemble. These contain information on the uncertainty associated with the hydrological modelling when driven using observed climate and Future Flows Climate for a period representative of the reference time slice 1961-1990 as described by key hydrological statistics. Graphs of projected changes for selected hydrological indicators are also provided for the 2050s time slice. Limitations associated with the dataset are provided, along with practical recommendation of use. Future Flows Hydrology is freely available for non-commercial use under certain licensing conditions. For each study site, catchment averages of daily precipitation and monthly potential evapotranspiration, used to drive the hydrological models, are made available, so that hydrological modelling uncertainty under climate change conditions can be explored further. doi:10.5285/f3723162-4fed-4d9d-92c6-dd17412fa37b

Perceived temperature in the course of climate change: an analysis of global heat index from 1979-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D.; Brenner, T.

2015-03-01

The increase in global mean temperatures resulting from climate change has wide reaching consequences for the earth's ecosystems and other natural systems. Many studies have been devoted to evaluating the distribution and effects of these changes. We go a step further and evaluate global changes to the heat index, a measure of temperature as perceived by humans. Heat index, which is computed from temperature and relative humidity, is more important than temperature for the health of humans and other animals. Even in cases where the heat index does not reach dangerous levels from a health perspective, it has been shown to be an important factor in worker productivity and thus in economic productivity. We compute heat index from dewpoint temperature and absolute temperature 2 m above ground from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset for the years 1979-2013. The data is provided aggregated to daily minima, means and maxima (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.841057). Furthermore, the data is temporally aggregated to monthly and yearly values and spatially aggregated to the level of countries after being weighted by population density in order to demonstrate its usefulness for the analysis of its impact on human health and productivity. The resulting data deliver insights into the spatiotemporal development of near-ground heat index during the course of the past 3 decades. It is shown that the impact of changing heat index is unevenly distributed through space and time, affecting some areas differently than others. The likelihood of dangerous heat index events has increased globally. Also, heat index climate groups that would formerly be expected closer to the tropics have spread latitudinally to include areas closer to the poles. The data can serve in future studies as a basis for evaluating and understanding the evolution of heat index in the course of climate change, as well as its impact on human health and productivity.

Debunking Climate Change Myths in the College Classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedford, D. P.

2012-12-01

Research in sociology (e.g. Hamilton, 2011) and social psychology (e.g. Kahan et al., 2012) suggests that there is no basis to an assumption common among educators that higher education levels lead to more rational decision making. Indeed, there is growing evidence that views on climate change, for just one significant example, become more polarized at higher education levels, rather than converging on the scientific consensus. Some research points to improved facility at filtering information according to preconceptions at higher education levels as a possible explanation for this phenomenon. Misinformation about subjects that are perceived to be contentious, such as anthropogenic climate change, is therefore potentially easily accepted despite-- or even because of-- higher levels of education. Thus, explicitly addressing misinformation about climate change may be an important strategy for use in the classroom. Fortunately, misinformation provides a valuable opportunity to turn a challenging situation to educational advantage and, in effect, make lemonade out of lemons. This presentation provides a case study of efforts explicitly to debunk climate change myths in the college classroom. The approach outlined here utilizes material on the psychology of the acceptance of misinformation for the popular audience, combined with examples of misinformation itself. Qualitative assessment of the effectiveness of these efforts is also presented. Hamilton, L. 2011. Education, political and opinions about climate change: evidence for interaction effects. Climatic Change vol. 104 no. 2, 231-242.. Kahan, D.M., E. Peters, M. Wittlin, P. Slovic, L. Larrimore Ouellette, D. Braman and G. Mandel. 2012. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change. doi:10.1038/nclimate1547.

Quantitative land-cover change in space and time over the last 11 000 years in the Baltic Sea catchment area and Norway - implications for studies on vegetation-climate interactions and land-use as a forcing of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trondman, Anna-Kari; Gaillard, Marie-José; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Shinya, Sugita; John, Birks; Anne, Bjune; Mihkel, Kangur; Per, Lagerås; Malgorzata, Latalowa; Matts, Lindbladh; Anneli, Poska; Siim, Veski

2016-04-01

Quantification of the effect of human-induced land-cover change (land-use) on climate in the past is still a subject of debate. Although we know that both biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes between the land surface and the atmosphere due to anthropogenic land-cover change lead to significant effects on climate, we still know little on the net effect of both types of processes. For instance climate modelling studies have shown that the extent of deforestation in Europe between 6k and 0.2k - as proposed by the KK scenarios of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change (ALCC) of Kaplan et al (2009) - has either warming or cooling biogeophysical effects on the geographical location (Strandberg et al., 2014). Further progress in our understanding of the effects of land-use change on climate greatly depends on the availability of reliable, empirical data on past land-use changes in quantitative terms. We present here pollen-based estimates of regional vegetation cover over the Holocene in the catchment of the Baltic Sea and in Norway. The regional abundance of individual plant species, genus, and groups of taxa were estimated at a 0.5k - to 0.1k - calender year time resolution using 339 pollen records and the REVEALS model (Sugita, 2007). Although there are very large differences between pollen percentages and REVEALS estimates of plant cover in terms of percentage values, the general trends in relative changes of the large landscape units (coniferous trees, deciduous trees, and open land) over time are comparable between the two. However, the ages obtained for the establishment of all tree taxa using a "REVEALS estimate threshold" of 1% are almost all older (by 0.5k years or more) than the ages inferred earlier from pollen percentages, and the times of maximum abundances of the tree taxa, as well as the relationships trees/openland and coniferous/deciduous are different between pollen percentages and plant cover. The pollen-based REVEALS cover of open land confirms the earlier observation that REVEALS estimates of landscape openness are generally much higher than the percentages of pollen types indicative of open land. The two major and fastest increases in landscape openness occurred from i) c. 1.5k (in most of the study region) and ii) c. 0.5k (in the entire study region). The time of highest landscape openness in the entire study region was between 0.5k and 0.2k, with maxima of c. 50 to 90% in the temperate zone, and c. 40% in the hemiboreal zone. Before 1.5k, landscape openness was largest in the temperate and hemiboreal zones of the study region (20-30% around 5k and 35-60% around 3k). Therefore, human-induced deforestation was already significant in Mid Holocene. The effect on climate of the successive land-use changes (deforestations) between 5k and 0.2k are not known and worth studying. References: Kaplan JO et al. (2009) Quaternary Science Reviews 28(27-28): 3016-3034. doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.09.028; Strandberg G et al. (2014) Clim. Past 10: 661-680. doi:10.5194/cp-10-661-2014; Sugita S (2007) The Holocene, 17(2): 229-241. doi:10.1177/0959683607075837

Studying Climate Response to Forcing by the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode Decomposition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhin, Dmitry; Gavrilov, Andrey; Loskutov, Evgeny; Feigin, Alexander

2017-04-01

An analysis of global climate response to external forcing, both anthropogenic (mainly, CO2 and aerosol) and natural (solar and volcanic), is needed for adequate predictions of global climate change. Being complex dynamical system, the climate reacts to external perturbations exciting feedbacks (both positive and negative) making the response non-trivial and poorly predictable. Thus an extraction of internal modes of climate system, investigation of their interaction with external forcings and further modeling and forecast of their dynamics, are all the problems providing the success of climate modeling. In the report the new method for principal mode extraction from climate data is presented. The method is based on the Nonlinear Dynamical Mode (NDM) expansion [1,2], but takes into account a number of external forcings applied to the system. Each NDM is represented by hidden time series governing the observed variability, which, together with external forcing time series, are mapped onto data space. While forcing time series are considered to be known, the hidden unknown signals underlying the internal climate dynamics are extracted from observed data by the suggested method. In particular, it gives us an opportunity to study the evolution of principal system's mode structure in changing external conditions and separate the internal climate variability from trends forced by external perturbations. Furthermore, the modes so obtained can be extrapolated beyond the observational time series, and long-term prognosis of modes' structure including characteristics of interconnections and responses to external perturbations, can be carried out. In this work the method is used for reconstructing and studying the principal modes of climate variability on inter-annual and decadal time scales accounting the external forcings such as anthropogenic emissions, variations of the solar activity and volcanic activity. The structure of the obtained modes as well as their response to external factors, e.g. forecast their change in 21 century under different CO2 emission scenarios, are discussed. [1] Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep15510 [2] Gavrilov, A., Mukhin, D., Loskutov, E., Volodin, E., Feigin, A., & Kurths, J. (2016). Method for reconstructing nonlinear modes with adaptive structure from multidimensional data. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 26(12), 123101. http://doi.org/10.1063/1.4968852

Mechanisms for the cooling of the central eastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Chunlei; Allan, Richard

2017-04-01

The sea surface temperature variation over the Central Eastern Pacific (CEP) controls the global mean surface temperature variation (Kosaka and Xie, 2013). The regional cooling over CEP is directly linked to the surface warming slowdown in last twenty years. It is important to understand the mechanisms of the CEP cooling in the warming climate in order to have a robust prediction of the future climate change. Previous studies showed the CEP cooling is related to the pronounced strengthening in Pacific trade winds over the past two decades, which is sufficient to account for the cooling of the CEP and a substantial slowdown in surface warming through increased subsurface ocean heat uptake in the Pacific shallow overturning cells and equatorial upwelling in the CEP (England et al., 2014). By analysing the cloud data, Zhou et al. (2016) showed the increase of the lower cloud cover (LCC) over the CEP area contributed to the cooling, resulting in positive local feedback and negative global feedback. Using the data from observations, ERA-Interim reanalysis and atmospheric climate simulations, our study shows that the increasing Latent Heat (LH) also plays an important role in the CEP cooling (Liu et al., 2015). After the sensitivity test using the bulk formula, it showed that both wind and total column water vapour content contribute to the cooling trends of the SST in CEP. The observed trends of the wind and LH in CEP also confirmed this. England et al. (2014) Recent intensification of wind-driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus, Nat. Clim. Change, 4, 222-227, doi:10.1038/nclimate2106. Kosaka, Y., and S. P. Xie (2013), Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling, Nature, 501, 403-407, doi:10.1038/nature12534. Liu et al. (2015) Combining satellite observations and reanalysis energy transports to estimate global net surface energy fluxes 1985-2012. J. Geophys. Res. , Atmospheres. ISSN 2169-8996 doi: 10.1002/2015JD023264. Zhou et al. (2016) Impact of decadal cloud variations on the Earth's energy budget, Nature Geoscience 9, 871-874 (2016) doi:10.1038/ngeo2828.

How to introduce climate change into extreme precipitation predetermination? First attempts to tamper with the MEWP method.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gérardin, Maxime; Brigode, Pierre; Bernardara, Pietro; Gailhard, Joël; Garçon, Rémy; Paquet, Emmanuel; Ribstein, Pierre

2013-04-01

The MEWP (Multi-Exponential Weather Pattern, Garavaglia et al. 2010) distribution is part of the operational method in use at EDF (Electricité de France) for computing dam spillways design floods, i.e. the magnitude of the flood that occurs at a given return period. The return periods of interest lie in the 100 - 10,000 years range. Relying on a purposely-designed classification of atmospheric circulations into weather patterns, and assigning a catchment-specific asymptotical coefficient to each of these patterns, the MEWP distribution provides the daily areal rainfall as a function of the return period. In its current state, the method relies on the implicit assumption of climate stationnarity. In this work we seek to introduce climate change into the MEWP framework. Since the MEWP distribution basically contains two sorts of parameters, namely frequencies of the weather patterns, and magnitudes of the events occurring within each of these patterns, we examine the plausible evolution of these two sets of parameters under climate change, and the sensitivity of the final result to these two sorts of changes. On the one hand, the future frequencies are assessed thanks to GCM outputs from CMIP5, and significant, albeit not greater than the internal variability, changes are observed. On the other hand, the future magnitudes can be suspected to follow the Clausius-Clapeyron relationship (e.g. Pall et al., 2007, and Lenderink et van Meijgaard, 2008). We assess the validity of this hypothesis on the observed daily areal precipitation series for more than a hundred catchments in France. The sensitivity analysis shows that, for the return periods at stake, the impact of frequency changes is small relative to that of magnitude changes, while this would not be true for smaller return periods. Therefore, we propose to incorporate climate change into the MEWP distribution in a simple but realistic way, by taking account of the magnitude change only. We conclude with some insights into the next steps that will allow a more sophisticated representation of climate change in the MEWP distribution. References: Garavaglia, F., J. Gailhard, E. Paquet, M. Lang, R. Garçon, and P. Bernardara. 2010. "Introducing a Rainfall Compound Distribution Model Based on Weather Patterns Sub-sampling." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 14 (6): 951-964. doi:10.5194/hess-14-951-2010. Lenderink, Geert, and Erik van Meijgaard. 2008. "Increase in Hourly Precipitation Extremes Beyond Expectations from Temperature Changes." Nature Geoscience 1 (8) (July 20): 511-514. doi:10.1038/ngeo262. Pall, P., MR Allen, and DA Stone. 2007. "Testing the Clausius-Clapeyron Constraint on Changes in Extreme Precipitation Under CO 2 Warming." Climate Dynamics 28 (4): 351-363.

Understanding Climate Uncertainty with an Ocean Focus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tokmakian, R. T.

2009-12-01

Uncertainty in climate simulations arises from various aspects of the end-to-end process of modeling the Earth’s climate. First, there is uncertainty from the structure of the climate model components (e.g. ocean/ice/atmosphere). Even the most complex models are deficient, not only in the complexity of the processes they represent, but in which processes are included in a particular model. Next, uncertainties arise from the inherent error in the initial and boundary conditions of a simulation. Initial conditions are the state of the weather or climate at the beginning of the simulation and other such things, and typically come from observations. Finally, there is the uncertainty associated with the values of parameters in the model. These parameters may represent physical constants or effects, such as ocean mixing, or non-physical aspects of modeling and computation. The uncertainty in these input parameters propagates through the non-linear model to give uncertainty in the outputs. The models in 2020 will no doubt be better than today’s models, but they will still be imperfect, and development of uncertainty analysis technology is a critical aspect of understanding model realism and prediction capability. Smith [2002] and Cox and Stephenson [2007] discuss the need for methods to quantify the uncertainties within complicated systems so that limitations or weaknesses of the climate model can be understood. In making climate predictions, we need to have available both the most reliable model or simulation and a methods to quantify the reliability of a simulation. If quantitative uncertainty questions of the internal model dynamics are to be answered with complex simulations such as AOGCMs, then the only known path forward is based on model ensembles that characterize behavior with alternative parameter settings [e.g. Rougier, 2007]. The relevance and feasibility of using "Statistical Analysis of Computer Code Output" (SACCO) methods for examining uncertainty in ocean circulation due to parameter specification will be described and early results using the ocean/ice components of the CCSM climate model in a designed experiment framework will be shown. Cox, P. and D. Stephenson, Climate Change: A Changing Climate for Prediction, 2007, Science 317 (5835), 207, DOI: 10.1126/science.1145956. Rougier, J. C., 2007: Probabilistic Inference for Future Climate Using an Ensemble of Climate Model Evaluations, Climatic Change, 81, 247-264. Smith L., 2002, What might we learn from climate forecasts? Proc. Nat’l Academy of Sciences, Vol. 99, suppl. 1, 2487-2492 doi:10.1073/pnas.012580599.

Synergistic impacts of deforestation, climate change and fire on the future biomes distribution in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sampaio, G.; Cardoso, M. F.; Nobre, C. A.; Salazar, L. F.

2013-05-01

Several studies indicate future increase of environmental risks for the ecosystems in the Amazon region as a result of climate and land-use change, and their synergistic interactions. Modeling studies (e.g. Oyama and Nobre 2004, Salazar et al. 2007, Malhi et al. 2008) project rapid and irreversible replacement of forests by savannas with large-scale losses of biodiversity and livelihoods for people in the region. This process is referred to as the Amazon Dieback, where accelerated plant mortality due to environmental changes lead to forest collapse and savannas expansion after "tipping points" in climate and land surface changes are achieved. In this study we performed new analyses to quantify how deforestation, climate change and fire may combine to affect the distribution of major biomes in Amazonia. Changes in land use consider deforestation scenarios of 0%, 20%, 40%, and 50% (Sampaio et al., 2007), with and without fires (Cardoso et al., 2008), under the two greenhouse gases scenarios B1 and A2 and three "representative concentration pathways" (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5, for years 2015-2034 and 2040-2059 ("2025" and "2050" time-slices), from IPCC AR4 and CMIP5. The results show that the area affected in scenarios A2 and RCP 8.5 is larger than in the climate scenario B1 and RCP 2.6, and in both cases the effect is progressively higher in time. Most important changes occur in the East and South of the Amazon, with replacement of tropical forest by seasonal forest and savanna. The effect of fire in this region is important in all scenarios. The Northwest Amazon presents the smallest changes in the area of tropical forest, indicating that even for substantial land-use modifications and global climate change, the resulting atmospheric conditions would still support tropical forest in the region. In summary, we conclude that the synergistic combination of deforestation, climate change resulting from global warming, and the potential for higher fire occurrence may lead to important impacts that add considerably to the vulnerability of tropical forest ecosystems in the study region. REFERENCES Cardoso, M. F. ; Nobre, C. A. ; Sampaio, G. ; Hirota, M. ; Valeriano, D. ; Câmara, G. Long-term potential for tropical-forest degradation due to deforestation and fires in the Brazilian Amazon. Biologia (Bratislava), v. 64, p. 433-437, 2009. Malhi Y, et al. (2008) Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon. Science 319:169-172. Oyama, M.D. and C.A. Nobre (2004), A simple potencial vegetation model for coupling with the Simple Biosphere Model (SIB). Revista Brasileira de Meteorologia, v. 19, n. 2, p. 203-216, 2004. Salazar, L. F., C. A. Nobre, and M. D. Oyama (2007), Climate change consequences on the biome distribution in tropical South America, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09708, doi:10.1029/2007GL029695 Sampaio, G., C. A. Nobre, M. H. Costa, P. Satyamurty, B. S. Soares-Filho and, M. Cardoso (2007), Regional climate change over eastern Amazonia caused by pasture and soybean cropland expansion. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L17709, doi:10.1029/2007GL030612.

Simulation of comprehensive chemistry and atmospheric methane lifetime in the LGM with EMAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromov, Sergey; Steil, Benedikt

2017-04-01

Past records of atmospheric methane (CH4) abundance/isotope composition may provide a substantial insight on C exchanges in the Earth System (ES). When simulated in the climate models, CH4 helps to identify climate parameters transitions via triggering of its different (natural) sources, with a proviso that its sinks are adequately represented in the model. The latter are still a matter of large uncertainty in the studies focussing on the interpretation of CH4 evolution throughout Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), judging the conferred span of tropospheric CH4 lifetime (λ) of 3-16 yr [1-4]. In this study, we attempt to: (i) deliver the most adequate estimate of the LGM atmospheric sink of CH4 in the EMAC AC-GCM [5] equipped with the comprehensive representation of atmospheric chemistry [6], (ii) reveal the ES and CH4 emission parameters that are most influential for λ and (iii) based on these findings, suggest a parameterisation for λ that may be consistently used in climate models. In pursuing (i) we have tuned the EMAC model for simulating LGM atmospheric chemistry state, including careful revisiting of the trace gases emissions from the biosphere, biomass burning/lightning source, etc. The latter affect the key simulated component bound with λ, viz. the abundance and distribution of the hydroxyl radicals (OH) which, upon reacting with CH4, constitute its main tropospheric sink. Our preliminary findings suggest that OH is buffered in the atmosphere in a similar fashion to preindustrial climate, which in line with the recent studies employing comprehensive chemistry mechanisms (e.g., [3]). The analysis in (ii) suggests that tropospheric λ values may be qualitatively described as a convolution of values typical for zonal domain with high and low photolytic recycling rates (i.e. tropics and extra-tropics), as in the latter a dependence of the zonal average λ value on the CH4 emission strength exists. We further use the extensive diagnostic in EMAC to infer the sensitivity of zonal OH to changes in various component of the ES, e.g. in stratospheric O3 input and dynamics. Finally, we discuss the potential set of parameters required for efficient λ and/or OH parameterisation implementation in models dealing with (transient) climate simulations. References 1. Fischer, H., et al.: Changing boreal methane sources and constant biomass burning during the last termination, Nature, 452, 864-867, doi: 10.1038/nature06825, 2008. 2. Kaplan, J. O., Folberth, G.,and Hauglustaine, D. A.: Role of methane and biogenic volatile organic compound sources in late glacial and Holocene fluctuations of atmospheric methane concentrations, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 20, n/a-n/a, doi: 10.1029/2005GB002590, 2006. 3. Murray, L. T., et al.: Factors controlling variability in the oxidative capacity of the troposphere since the Last Glacial Maximum, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14, 3589-3622, doi: 10.5194/acp-14-3589-2014, 2014. 4. Valdes, P. J., Beerling, D. J.,and Johnson, C. E.: The ice age methane budget, Geophysical Research Letters, 32, n/a-n/a, doi: 10.1029/2004GL021004, 2005. 5. Jöckel, P., et al.: Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2), Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 717-752, doi: 10.5194/gmd-3-717-2010, 2010. 6. Lelieveld, J., et al.: Global tropospheric hydroxyl distribution, budget and reactivity, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 12477-12493, doi: 10.5194/acp-16-12477-2016, 2016.

Change in seasonality in the southwest tropical Pacific during the Holocene: a data -model comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correge, T.; Deschamps, C.; Duprey, N.; Pujol, N.; Braconnot, P.; Charlier, K.; Lazareth, C. E.; Le Cornec, F.; Malaizé, B.

2012-12-01

Our ability to successfully predict future climate change relies heavily on the improvement of climate models. One way to do so is to compare model outputs with paleodata. The aim of the French ELPASO program (El Niño in the Past: Simulations and Observations) is to conduct such comparisons in the tropics to study the evolution of ENSO in the late Pleistocene, and more particularly during the Holocene, and the link to the background climate state (including the seasonal cycle). We generated multi-decadal time series of SST derived from Sr/Ca analyses of massive Porites corals from Vanuatu dating from 10 ka, 6.8 ka, 6.2 ka and 4.2 ka. For each time series, the mean seasonal cycle was calculated and compared to simulations from the IPSL-CM4 model (Braconnot et al., 2012; Luan et al., 2012). When insolation parameters (in particular precession) are taken into account for the 9.5 ka and 6 ka simulations, the model predicts that the seasonal cycle should be reduced in the southern hemisphere and enhanced in the northern hemisphere during the early and mid Holocene. In contrast, coral data from Vanuatu indicate enhanced mean seasonal cycles at 10 ka, 6.8 ka and 6.2 ka. The coral dating from 4.2 ka is the only one showing a reduced seasonal cycle compared to the present. Various scenarios will be proposed to reconcile this discrepancy. Braconnot, P. et al. Impact of Earth's orbit and freshwater fluxes on Holocene climate mean seasonal cycle and ENSO characteristics, Clim. Dynam., 38, 1081-1092, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1029-x, 2012. Luan, Y. et al. 2012. Early and mid-Holocene climate in the tropical Pacific: seasonal cycle and interannual variability induced by insolation changes. Clim. Past, 8, 1093-1108 ; doi:10.5194/cp-8-1093-2012

A global reconstruction of climate-driven subdecadal water storage variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Humphrey, V.; Gudmundsson, L.; Seneviratne, S. I.

2017-03-01

Since 2002, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission has provided unprecedented observations of global mass redistribution caused by hydrological processes. However, there are still few sources on pre-2002 global terrestrial water storage (TWS). Classical approaches to retrieve past TWS rely on either land surface models (LSMs) or basin-scale water balance calculations. Here we propose a new approach which statistically relates anomalies in atmospheric drivers to monthly GRACE anomalies. Gridded subdecadal TWS changes and time-dependent uncertainty intervals are reconstructed for the period 1985-2015. Comparisons with model results demonstrate the performance and robustness of the derived data set, which represents a new and valuable source for studying subdecadal TWS variability, closing the ocean/land water budgets and assessing GRACE uncertainties. At midpoint between GRACE observations and LSM simulations, the statistical approach provides TWS estimates (doi:10.5905/ethz-1007-85) that are essentially derived from observations and are based on a limited number of transparent model assumptions.

Flowering time and seed dormancy control use external coincidence to generate life history strategy

PubMed Central

Springthorpe, Vicki; Penfield, Steven

2015-01-01

Climate change is accelerating plant developmental transitions coordinated with the seasons in temperate environments. To understand the importance of these timing advances for a stable life history strategy, we constructed a full life cycle model of Arabidopsis thaliana. Modelling and field data reveal that a cryptic function of flowering time control is to limit seed set of winter annuals to an ambient temperature window which coincides with a temperature-sensitive switch in seed dormancy state. This coincidence is predicted to be conserved independent of climate at the expense of flowering date, suggesting that temperature control of flowering time has evolved to constrain seed set environment and therefore frequency of dormant and non-dormant seed states. We show that late flowering can disrupt this bet-hedging germination strategy. Our analysis shows that life history modelling can reveal hidden fitness constraints and identify non-obvious selection pressures as emergent features. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.05557.001 PMID:25824056

Climate-mediated cooperation promotes niche expansion in burying beetles.

PubMed

Sun, Syuan-Jyun; Rubenstein, Dustin R; Chen, Bo-Fei; Chan, Shih-Fan; Liu, Jian-Nan; Liu, Mark; Hwang, Wenbe; Yang, Ping-Shih; Shen, Sheng-Feng

2014-05-13

The ability to form cooperative societies may explain why humans and social insects have come to dominate the earth. Here we examine the ecological consequences of cooperation by quantifying the fitness of cooperative (large groups) and non-cooperative (small groups) phenotypes in burying beetles (Nicrophorus nepalensis) along an elevational and temperature gradient. We experimentally created large and small groups along the gradient and manipulated interspecific competition with flies by heating carcasses. We show that cooperative groups performed as thermal generalists with similarly high breeding success at all temperatures and elevations, whereas non-cooperative groups performed as thermal specialists with higher breeding success only at intermediate temperatures and elevations. Studying the ecological consequences of cooperation may not only help us to understand why so many species of social insects have conquered the earth, but also to determine how climate change will affect the success of these and other social species, including our own.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.02440.001. Copyright © 2014, Sun et al.

Climate-mediated cooperation promotes niche expansion in burying beetles

PubMed Central

Sun, Syuan-Jyun; Rubenstein, Dustin R; Chen, Bo-Fei; Chan, Shih-Fan; Liu, Jian-Nan; Liu, Mark; Hwang, Wenbe; Yang, Ping-Shih; Shen, Sheng-Feng

2014-01-01

The ability to form cooperative societies may explain why humans and social insects have come to dominate the earth. Here we examine the ecological consequences of cooperation by quantifying the fitness of cooperative (large groups) and non-cooperative (small groups) phenotypes in burying beetles (Nicrophorus nepalensis) along an elevational and temperature gradient. We experimentally created large and small groups along the gradient and manipulated interspecific competition with flies by heating carcasses. We show that cooperative groups performed as thermal generalists with similarly high breeding success at all temperatures and elevations, whereas non-cooperative groups performed as thermal specialists with higher breeding success only at intermediate temperatures and elevations. Studying the ecological consequences of cooperation may not only help us to understand why so many species of social insects have conquered the earth, but also to determine how climate change will affect the success of these and other social species, including our own. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.02440.001 PMID:24842999

Southeast Regional Assessment Project for the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalton, Melinda S.; Jones, Sonya A.

2010-01-01

The Southeastern United States spans a broad range of physiographic settings and maintains exceptionally high levels of faunal diversity. Unfortunately, many of these ecosystems are increasingly under threat due to rapid human development, and management agencies are increasingly aware of the potential effects that climate change will have on these ecosystems. Natural resource managers and conservation planners can be effective at preserving ecosystems in the face of these stressors only if they can adapt current conservation efforts to increase the overall resilience of the system. Climate change, in particular, challenges many of the basic assumptions used by conservation planners and managers. Previous conservation planning efforts identified and prioritized areas for conservation based on the current environmental conditions, such as habitat quality, and assumed that conditions in conservation lands would be largely controlled by management actions (including no action). Climate change, however, will likely alter important system drivers (temperature, precipitation, and sea-level rise) and make it difficult, if not impossible, to maintain recent historic conditions in conservation lands into the future. Climate change will also influence the future conservation potential of non-conservation lands, further complicating conservation planning. Therefore, there is a need to develop and adapt effective conservation strategies to cope with the effects of climate and landscape change on future environmental conditions. Congress recognized this important issue and authorized the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC; http://nccw.usgs.gov/) in the Fiscal Year 2008. The NCCWSC will produce science that will help resource management agencies anticipate and adapt to climate change impacts to fish, wildlife, and their habitats. With the release of Secretarial Order 3289 on September 14, 2009, the mandate of the NCCWSC was expanded to address climate change-related impacts on all Department of the Interior (DOI) resources. The NCCWSC will establish a network of eight DOI Regional Climate Science Centers (RCSCs) that will work with a variety of partners to provide natural resource managers with tools and information that will help them anticipate and adapt conservation planning and design for projected climate change. The forecasting products produced by the RCSCs will aid fish, wildlife, and land managers in designing suitable adaptive management approaches for their programs. The DOI also is developing Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) as science and conservation action partnerships at subregional scales. The USGS is working with the Southeast Region of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) to develop science collaboration between the future Southeast RCSC and future LCCs. The NCCWSC Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP) will begin to develop regional downscaled climate models, land cover change models, regional ecological models, regional watershed models, and other science tools. Models and data produced by SERAP will be used in a collaborative process between the USGS, the FWS (LCCs), State and federal partners, nongovernmental organizations, and academia to produce science at appropriate scales to answer resource management questions. The SERAP will produce an assessment of climate change, and impacts on land cover, ecosystems, and priority species in the region. The predictive tools developed by the SERAP project team will allow end users to better understand potential impacts of climate change and sea level rise on terrestrial and aquatic populations in the Southeastern United States. The SERAP capitalizes on the integration of five existing projects: (1) the Multi-State Conservation Grants Program project "Designing Sustainable Landscapes," (2) the USGS multidisciplinary Science Thrust project "Water Availability for Ecological Needs," (3) the USGS Southeast Pilot Project "Climate Change in the Southeastern U.S. and its Impacts on Bird Distributions and Habitats," (4) a sea-level rise impacts study envisioned jointly with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and (5) two USGS sea-level rise impact assessment projects that address inundation hazards and provide probabilistic forecasts of coastal geomorphic change. The SERAP will expand on these existing projects and include the following tasks, which were initiated in summer 2009: * Regionally downscaled probabilistic climate-change projections * Integrated coastal assessment * Integrated terrestrial assessment * Multi-resolution assessment of potential climate change effects on biological resources: aquatic and hydrologic dynamics * Optimal conservation strategies to cope with climate change The SERAP seeks to formally integrate these tasks to aid conservation planning and design so that ecosystem management decisions can be optimized for providing desirable outcomes across a range of species and environments. The following chapters detail SERAP's efforts in providing a suite of regional climate, watershed, and landscape-change analyses and develop the interdisciplinary framework required for the biological planning phases of adaptive management and strategic conservation. The planning phase will include the identification of conservation alternatives, development of predictive models and decision support tools, and development of a template to address similar challenges and goals in other regions. The project teams will explore and develop ways to link the various ecological models arising from each component. The SERAP project team also will work closely with members of the LCCs and other partnerships throughout the life of the project to ensure that the objectives of the project meet resources mangers needs in the Southeast.

A high-resolution, empirical approach to climate impact assessment for regulatory analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delgado, M.; Simcock, J. G.; Greenstone, M.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E.; Carleton, T.; Hultgren, A.; Jina, A.; Rising, J. A.; Nath, I.; Yuan, J.; Rode, A.; Chong, T.; Dobbels, G.; Hussain, A.; Wang, J.; Song, Y.; Mohan, S.; Larsen, K.; Houser, T.

2017-12-01

Recent breakthroughs in computing, data availability, and methodology have precipitated significant advances in the understanding of the relationship between climate and socioeconomic outcomes [1]. And while the use of estimates of the global marginal costs of greenhouse gas emissions (e.g. the SCC) are a mandatory component of regulatory policy in many jurisdictions, existing SCC-IAMs have lagged advances in impact assessment and valuation [2]. Recent work shows that incorporating high spatial and temporal resolution can significantly affect the observed relationships of economic outcomes to climate and socioeconomic factors [3] and that maintaining this granularity is critical to understanding the sensitivity of aggregate measures of valuation to inequality and risk adjustment methodologies [4]. We propose a novel framework that decomposes uncertainty in the SCC along multiple sources, including aggregate climate response parameters, the translation of global climate into local weather, the effect of weather on physical and economic systems, human and macro-economic responses, and impact valuation methodologies. This work extends Hsiang et al. (2017) [4] to directly estimate local response functions for multiple sectors in each of 24,378 global regions and to estimate impacts at this resolution daily, incorporating endogenous, empirically-estimated adaptation and costs. The goal of this work is to provide insight into the heterogeneity of climate impacts and to work with other modeling teams to enhance the empirical grounding of integrated climate impact assessment in more complex energy-environment-economics models. [1] T. Carleton and S. Hsiang (2016), DOI: 10.1126/science.aad9837. [2] National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (2017), DOI: 10.17226/24651. [3] Burke, M., S. Hsiang, and E. Miguel (2015), DOI: 10.1038/nature15725. [4] S. Hsiang et al. (2017), DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4369.

Data mining to predict climate hotspots: an experiment in aligning federal climate enterprises in the Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P.; Foster, J. G.; Daley-Laursen, S. B.

2014-12-01

The Northwest has the nation's strongest geographic, institutional, and scientific alignment between NOAA RISA, DOI Climate Science Center, USDA Climate Hub, and participating universities. Considering each of those institutions' distinct mission, funding structures, governance, stakeholder engagement, methods of priority-setting, and deliverables, it is a challenge to find areas of common interest and ways for these institutions to work together. In view of the rich history of stakeholder engagement and the deep base of previous research on climate change in the region, these institutions are cooperating in developing a regional capacity to mine the vast available data in ways that are mutually beneficial, synergistic, and regionally relevant. Fundamentally, data mining means exploring connections across and within multiple datasets using advanced statistical techniques, development of multidimensional indices, machine learning, and more. The challenge is not just what we do with big datasets, but how we integrate the wide variety and types of data coming out of scenario analyses to create knowledge and inform decision-making. Federal agencies and their partners need to learn integrate big data on climate change and develop useful tools for important stake-holders to assist them in anticipating the main stresses of climate change to their own resources and preparing to abate those stresses.

Five-year external reviews of the eight Department of Interior Climate Science Centers: Southeast Climate Science Center

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rice, Kenneth G.; Beier, Paul; Breault, Tim; Middleton, Beth A.; Peck, Myron A.; Tirpak, John M.; Ratnaswamy, Mary; Austen, Douglas; Harrison, Sarah

2017-01-01

In 2008, the U.S. Congress authorized the establishment of the National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC) within the U.S. Department of Interior (DOI). Housed administratively within the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), NCCWSC is part of the DOI’s ongoing mission to meet the challenges of climate change and its effects on wildlife and aquatic resources. From 2010 through 2012, NCCWSC established eight regional DOI Climate Science Centers (CSCs). Each of these regional CSCs operated with the mission to “synthesize and integrate climate change impact data and develop tools that the Department’s managers and partners can use when managing the Department’s land, water, fish and wildlife, and cultural heritage resources” (Salazar 2009). The model developed by NCCWSC for the regional CSCs employed a dual approach of a federal USGS-staffed component and a parallel host-university component established competitively through a 5-year cooperative agreement with NCCWSC. At the conclusion of this 5-year agreement, a review of each CSC was undertaken, with the Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) review in February 2016. The SE CSC is hosted by North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, and is physically housed within the NCSU Department of Applied Ecology along with the Center for Applied Aquatic Ecology, the North Carolina Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit (CFWRU), and the North Carolina Agromedicine Institute. The U.S. Department of Agriculture Southeast Regional Climate Hub is based at NCSU as is the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Southeast Regional Climate Center, the North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies, the North Carolina Wildlife Resources Commission, the NOAA National Weather Service, the State Climate Office of North Carolina, and the U.S. Forest Service Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center. This creates a strong core of organizations operating in close proximity focused on climate issues. The geographic area covered by the SE CSC represents all or part of 16 states and the Caribbean Islands and has overlapping boundaries with seven Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): Appalachian LCC, Eastern Tallgrass Prairie and Big Rivers LCC, Gulf Coast Prairie LCC, Gulf Coastal Plains and Ozarks LCC, Peninsular Florida LCC, South Atlantic LCC, and Caribbean LCC. The SE CSC region also encompasses 134 U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service refuges and 89 National Park Service (NPS) units and is home to 11 federally recognized and 54 state recognized tribes. 

Integrating Health into Local Climate Response: Lessons from the U.S. CDC Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative

PubMed Central

Fox, Mary A.; Kaye, Charlotte; Resnick, Beth

2017-01-01

Summary: Public health has potential to serve as a frame to convey the urgency of behavior change needed to adapt to a changing climate and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Local governments form the backbone of climate-related public health preparedness. Yet local health agencies are often inadequately prepared and poorly integrated into climate change assessments and plans. We reviewed the climate health profiles of 16 states and two cities participating in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative (CRSCI) that aims to build local capacity to assess and respond to the health impacts of climate change. Following recommendations from a recent expert panel strategic review, we present illustrations of emerging promising practice and future directions. We found that CRSCI has strengthened climate preparedness and response in local public health agencies by identifying critical climate-health impacts and vulnerable populations, and has helped integrate health more fully into broader climate planning. Promising practice was found in all three recommendation areas identified by the expert panel (leveraging partnerships, refining assessment methodologies and enhancing communications), particularly with regard to health impacts of extreme heat. Vast needs remain, however, suggesting the need to disseminate CRSCI experience to non-grantees. In conclusion, the CRSCI program approach and selected activities illustrate a way forward toward robust, targeted local preparedness and response that may serve as a useful example for public health departments in the United States and internationally, particularly at a time of uncertain commitment to climate change agreements at the national level. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1838 PMID:28934724

Multidecadal oscillations in rainfall and hydrological extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Patrick

2013-04-01

Many studies have anticipated a worldwide increase in the frequency and intensity of precipitation extremes and floods since the last decade(s). Natural variability by climate oscillations partly determines the observed evolution of precipitation extremes. Based on a technique for the identification and analysis of changes in extreme quantiles, it is shown that hydrological extremes have oscillatory behaviour at multidecadal time scales. Results are based on nearly independent extremes extracted from long-term historical time series of precipitation intensities and river flows. Study regions include Belgium - The Netherlands (Meuse basin), Ethiopia (Blue Nile basin) and Ecuador (Paute basin). For Belgium - The Netherlands, the past 100 years showed larger and more hydrological extremes around the 1910s, 1950-1960s, and more recently during the 1990-2000s. Interestingly, the oscillations for southwestern Europe are anti-correlated with these of northwestern Europe, thus with oscillation highs in the 1930-1940s and 1970s. The precipitation oscillation peaks are explained by persistence in atmospheric circulation patterns over the North Atlantic during periods of 10 to 15 years. References: Ntegeka V., Willems P. (2008), 'Trends and multidecadal oscillations in rainfall extremes, based on a more than 100 years time series of 10 minutes rainfall intensities at Uccle, Belgium', Water Resources Research, 44, W07402, doi:10.1029/2007WR006471 Mora, D., Willems, P. (2012), 'Decadal oscillations in rainfall and air temperature in the Paute River Basin - Southern Andes of Ecuador', Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 108(1), 267-282, doi:0.1007/s00704-011-0527-4 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2011). 'Influence of climate variability on representative QDF predictions of the upper Blue Nile Basin', Journal of Hydrology, 411, 355-365, doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.10.019 Taye, M.T., Willems, P. (2012). 'Temporal variability of hydro-climatic extremes in the Blue Nile basin', Water Resources Research, 48, W03513, 13p. Willems, P., Olsson, J., Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K., Beecham, S., Pathirana, A., Bülow Gregersen, I., Madsen, H., Nguyen, V-T-V. (2012), 'Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage', IWA Publishing, 252p., Paperback Print ISBN 9781780401256; Ebook ISBN 9781780401263

Selecting climate simulations for impact studies based on multivariate patterns of climate change.

PubMed

Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas

In climate change impact research it is crucial to carefully select the meteorological input for impact models. We present a method for model selection that enables the user to shrink the ensemble to a few representative members, conserving the model spread and accounting for model similarity. This is done in three steps: First, using principal component analysis for a multitude of meteorological parameters, to find common patterns of climate change within the multi-model ensemble. Second, detecting model similarities with regard to these multivariate patterns using cluster analysis. And third, sampling models from each cluster, to generate a subset of representative simulations. We present an application based on the ENSEMBLES regional multi-model ensemble with the aim to provide input for a variety of climate impact studies. We find that the two most dominant patterns of climate change relate to temperature and humidity patterns. The ensemble can be reduced from 25 to 5 simulations while still maintaining its essential characteristics. Having such a representative subset of simulations reduces computational costs for climate impact modeling and enhances the quality of the ensemble at the same time, as it prevents double-counting of dependent simulations that would lead to biased statistics. The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1582-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Impact of different convection permitting resolutions on the representation of heavy rainfall over the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fosser, Giorgia; Kendon, Elizabeth; Chan, Steven

2017-04-01

Previous studies (e.g. Ban et al, 2015; Fosser et al, 2015 and 2016; Kendon et al, 2015) have shown that convection permitting models are able to give a much more realistic representation of convection, and are needed to provide reliable projections of future changes in hourly precipitation extremes. In this context, the UKCP18 project aims to provide policy makers with new UK climate change projections at hourly and local scales, thanks to the first ensemble of runs at convection permitting resolution. As a first step, we need to identify a suitable UK domain, resolution and experimental design for the convective-scale ensemble. Thus, a set of 12-years long simulations driven by ERA Interim reanalysis data has been carried out over the UK using the Met Office Unified Model (UM) at different convection permitting resolutions, namely 1.5 km, 2.2 km and 4km. Different nesting strategy and physical adjustments are also tested. Two observational gridded datasets, based on rain gauges and radar, are used for validation. The analysis aims to identify the impacts of the different convection permitting resolutions (as well as domain size and physical settings) on the representation of precipitation, especially when convection is a predominant feature. Moreover, this study tries to determine the physical reasons behind the found differences and hence to determine if there are any benefits of increasing the horizontal resolution within the convection permitting regime in a climatological context. First results show that the 4km model realises many of the benefits of convection-permitting resolution, namely the rainfall fields are much more realistic and the daily timing of rainfall is better captured compared to convection-parameterised models. For mean precipitation metrics, including precipitation conditioned on circulation type, there is little benefit in moving to resolutions finer than 4km. However, there are some key deficiencies at convection-permitting resolution which are notably worse at 4km, namely the tendency for the heaviest events to be too intense and convective showers to be too "blobby". The use of different nesting strategy seems to have a big impact on the results. Bibliography Ban N, Schmidli J, Schär C (2015) Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster? Geophys Res Lett 42:1165-1172. doi: 10.1002/2014GL062588 Fosser G, Khodayar S, Berg P (2015) Benefit of convection permitting climate model simulations in the representation of convective precipitation. Clim Dyn. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2242-1 Fosser G, Khodayar S, Berg P (2015) Climate change in the next 30 years: what can a convection-permitting model tell us that we did not already know? Clim Dyn. accepted Kendon EJ, Roberts NM, Fowler HJ, et al (2014) Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model. Nat Clim Chang 4:570-576. doi: 10.1038/nclimate2258

Unmanned Aircraft Systems for Monitoring Department of the Interior Lands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutt, M. E.; Quirk, B.

2013-12-01

Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) technology is quickly evolving and will have a significant impact on Earth science research. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting an operational test and evaluation of UAS to see how this technology supports the mission of the Department of the Interior (DOI). Over the last 4 years, the USGS, working with many partners, has been actively conducting proof of concept UAS operations, which are designed to evaluate the potential of UAS technology to support the mandated DOI scientific, resource and land management missions. UAS technology is being made available to monitor environmental conditions, analyze the impacts of climate change, respond to natural hazards, understand landscape change rates and consequences, conduct wildlife inventories and support related land management and law enforcement missions. Using small UAS (sUAS), the USGS is able to tailor solutions to meet project requirements by obtaining very high resolution video data, acquiring thermal imagery, detecting chemical plumes, and generating digital terrain models at a fraction of the cost of conventional surveying methods. UAS technology is providing a mechanism to collect timely remote sensing data at a low cost and at low risk over DOI lands that can be difficult to monitor and consequently enhances our ability to provide unbiased scientific information to better enable decision makers to make informed decisions. This presentation describes the UAS technology and infrastructure being employed, the application projects already accomplished, lessons learned and future of UAS within the DOI. We fully expect that by 2020 UAS will emerge as a primary platform for all DOI remote sensing applications. Much like the use of Internet technology, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Global Positioning Systems (GPS), UAS have the potential of enabling the DOI to be better stewards of the land.

Simple but accurate GCM-free approach for quantifying anthropogenic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lovejoy, S.

2014-12-01

We are so used to analysing the climate with the help of giant computer models (GCM's) that it is easy to get the impression that they are indispensable. Yet anthropogenic warming is so large (roughly 0.9oC) that it turns out that it is straightforward to quantify it with more empirically based methodologies that can be readily understood by the layperson. The key is to use the CO2 forcing as a linear surrogate for all the anthropogenic effects from 1880 to the present (implicitly including all effects due to Greenhouse Gases, aerosols and land use changes). To a good approximation, double the economic activity, double the effects. The relationship between the forcing and global mean temperature is extremely linear as can be seen graphically and understood without fancy statistics, [Lovejoy, 2014a] (see the attached figure and http://www.physics.mcgill.ca/~gang/Lovejoy.htm). To an excellent approximation, the deviations from the linear forcing - temperature relation can be interpreted as the natural variability. For example, this direct - yet accurate approach makes it graphically obvious that the "pause" or "hiatus" in the warming since 1998 is simply a natural cooling event that has roughly offset the anthropogenic warming [Lovejoy, 2014b]. Rather than trying to prove that the warming is anthropogenic, with a little extra work (and some nonlinear geophysics theory and pre-industrial multiproxies) we can disprove the competing theory that it is natural. This approach leads to the estimate that the probability of the industrial scale warming being a giant natural fluctuation is ≈0.1%: it can be dismissed. This destroys the last climate skeptic argument - that the models are wrong and the warming is natural. It finally allows for a closure of the debate. In this talk we argue that this new, direct, simple, intuitive approach provides an indispensable tool for communicating - and convincing - the public of both the reality and the amplitude of anthropogenic warming. ReferencesLovejoy, S. (2014a), Scaling fluctuation analysis and statistical hypothesis testing of anthropogenic warming, Climate Dynamics, 42, 2339-2351 doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2128-2. Lovejoy, S. (2014b), Return periods of global climate fluctuations and the pause, Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 4704-4710 doi: doi: 10.1002/2014GL060478.

Use of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model to investigate interannual variability in methane sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayman, Garry; O'Connor, Fiona; Clark, Douglas; Huntingford, Chris; Gedney, Nicola

2013-04-01

The global mean atmospheric concentration of methane (CH4) has more than doubled during the industrial era [1] and now constitutes ? 20% of the anthropogenic climate forcing by greenhouse gases [2]. The globally-averaged CH4 growth rate, derived from surface measurements, has fallen significantly from a high of 16 ppb yr-1 in the late 1970s/early 1980s and was close to zero between 1999 and 2006 [1]. This overall period of declining or low growth was however interspersed with years of positive growth-rate anomalies (e.g., in 1991-1992, 1998-1999 and 2002-2003). Since 2007, renewed growth has been evident [1, 3], with the largest increases observed over polar northern latitudes and the Southern Hemisphere in 2007 and in the tropics in 2008. The observed inter-annual variability in atmospheric methane concentrations and the associated changes in growth rates have variously been attributed to changes in different methane sources and sinks [1, 4]. In this paper, we report results from runs of the HadGEM2 climate-chemistry model [5] using year- and month-specific emission datasets. The HadGEM2 model includes the comprehensive atmospheric chemistry and aerosol package, the UK Chemistry Aerosol community model (UKCA, http://www.ukca.ac.uk/wiki/index.php). The Standard Tropospheric Chemistry scheme was selected for this work. This chemistry scheme simulates the Ox, HOx and NOx chemical cycles and the oxidation of CO, methane, ethane and propane. Year- and month-specific emission datasets were generated for the period from 1997 to 2009 for the emitted species in the chemistry scheme (CH4, CO, NOx, HCHO, C2H6, C3H8, CH3CHO, CH3CHOCH3). The approach adopted varied depending on the source sector: Anthropogenic: The emissions from anthropogenic sources were based on decadal-averaged emission inventories compiled by [6] for the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP). These were then used to derive year-specific emission datasets by scaling the emission totals for the different years and source sectors using sector and species-specific scaling factors based on the annual trends given in various EDGAR time series: (a) version 4.2 for all species (except NMVOCs) and version 4.1 for NMVOCs; (b) v3.2. This approach was also applied to the emissions from aviation (only for oxides of nitrogen) and international shipping. Biomass burning: Month-specific emission inventories are available from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED, v3.1) for the years 1997 to 2009 [7]. The emissions were rescaled to give the same decadal mean as used in the Hadley Centre's earlier HadGEM2 runs (25 Tg CH4 per annum). Other: Sources such as termites and hydrates for methane were taken from the GEIA website and the dataset of Fung et al. [8]. The datasets contain a single annual cycle, which was assumed to apply for all years. For CH4, there are also emissions from wetlands. These were either based on the dataset of Fung et al. [8] or derived from the JULES (Joint UK Land Earth Simulator) land surface model [9, 10]. The standard version of JULES uses a simple methane wetland emission parameterization, developed and tested by [11] for use at large spatial scales. The surface concentrations from the different model runs have been compared to surface atmospheric CH4 measurements. In addition, growth rates have been derived. These comparisons will be reported and used to assess the contribution of different methane sources to the interannual variations in the methane growth rate. References [1] Dlugokencky, E.J., et al.: Global atmospheric methane: budget, changes and dangers. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 369, 2058-2072; doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0341, 2011. [2] Forster, P., et al.: Changes in Atmospheric Constituents and in Radiative Forcing. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 2007. [3] Rigby, M., et al.: Renewed growth of atmospheric methane. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L22805, doi:10.1029/2008GL036037, 2008. [4] Bousquet, P., et al.: Contribution of anthropogenic and natural sources to atmospheric methane variability, Nature, 443, 439-443, doi:10.1038/nature05132, 2006. [5] Collins, W. J., et al.: Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model - HadGEM2, Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 1051-1075, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011, 2011. [6] Lamarque, J.-F., et al.: Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 7017-7039, doi:10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010, 2010. [7] van der Werf, G. R., et al.: Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997-2009), Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 10, 11707-11735, doi:10.5194/acp-10-11707-2010, 2010. [8] Fung, I., et al.: Three-dimensional model synthesis of the Global Methane Cycle. Journal of Geophysical Research, 96, 13,033-13,065, 1991. [9] Best, M. J., et al.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description - Part 1: Energy and water fluxes, Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 677-699, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011, 2011. [10] Clark, D.B., et al.: The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), Model description - Part 2: Carbon fluxes and vegetation. Geoscientific Model Development, 4, 701-722, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011, 2011. [11] Gedney, N., et al.: Climate feedback from wetland methane emissions. Geophysical Research Letters, 31, L20503, 2004.

Did Aboriginal vegetation burning affect the Australian summer monsoon?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balcerak, Ernie

2011-08-01

For thousands of years, Aboriginal Australians burned forests, creating grasslands. Some studies have suggested that in addition to changing the landscape, these burning practices also affected the timing and intensity of the Australian summer monsoon. Different vegetation types can alter evaporation, roughness, and surface reflectivity, leading to changes in the weather and climate. On the basis of an ensemble of experiments with a global climate model, Notaro et al. conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of decreased vegetation cover on the summer monsoon in northern Australia. They found that although decreased vegetation cover would have had only minor effects during the height of the monsoon season, during the premonsoon season, burning-induced vegetation loss would have caused significant decreases in precipitation and increases in temperature. Thus, by burning forests, Aboriginals altered the local climate, effectively extending the dry season and delaying the start of the monsoon season. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2011GL047774, 2011)

Multiple Threats to Child Health from Fossil Fuel Combustion: Impacts of Air Pollution and Climate Change.

PubMed

Perera, Frederica P

2017-02-01

Approaches to estimating and addressing the risk to children from fossil fuel combustion have been fragmented, tending to focus either on the toxic air emissions or on climate change. Yet developing children, and especially poor children, now bear a disproportionate burden of disease from both environmental pollution and climate change due to fossil fuel combustion. This commentary summarizes the robust scientific evidence regarding the multiple current and projected health impacts of fossil fuel combustion on the young to make the case for a holistic, child-centered energy and climate policy that addresses the full array of physical and psychosocial stressors resulting from fossil fuel pollution. The data summarized here show that by sharply reducing our dependence on fossil fuels we would achieve highly significant health and economic benefits for our children and their future. These benefits would occur immediately and also play out over the life course and potentially across generations. Going beyond the powerful scientific and economic arguments for urgent action to reduce the burning of fossil fuels is the strong moral imperative to protect our most vulnerable populations. Citation: Perera FP. 2017. Multiple threats to child health from fossil fuel combustion: impacts of air pollution and climate change. Environ Health Perspect 125:141-148; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP299.

Impact of climate change on water balance components in Mediterranean rainfed olive orchards under tillage or cover crop soil management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez-Carretero, María Teresa; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Dosio, Alessandro; Gómez, José A.

2013-04-01

The rainfed olive orchards in Southern Spain constitute the main socioeconomic system of the Mediterranean Spanish agriculture. These systems have an elevated level of complexity and require the accurate characterization of crop, climate and soil components for a correct management. It is common the inclusion of cover crops (usually winter cereals or natural cover) intercalated between the olive rows in order to reduce water erosion. Saving limited available water requires specific management, mowing or killing these cover crops in early spring. Thus, under the semi-arid conditions in Southern Spain the management of the cover crops in rainfed olive orchards is essential to avoid a severe impact to the olive orchards yield through depletion of soil water. In order to characterize this agricultural system, a complete water balance model has been developed, calibrated and validated for the semi-arid conditions of Southern Spain, called WABOL (Abazi et al., 2013). In this complex and fragile system, the climate change constitutes a huge threat for its sustainability, currently limited by the availability of water resources, and its forecasted reduction for Mediterranean environments in Southern Spain. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of climate change on the different components of the water balance in these representative double cropping systems: transpiration of the olive orchard and cover crop, runoff, deep percolation and soil water content. Four climatic scenarios from the FP6 European Project ENSEMBLES were first bias corrected for temperatures and precipitation (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) and, subsequently, used as inputs for the WABOL model for five olive orchard fields located in Southern Spain under different conditions of crop, climate, soils and management, in order to consider as much as possible of the variability detected in the Spanish olive orchards. The first results indicate the significant effect of the cover crop on the transpiration of the olive orchard, indicating that a correct water and soil management is crucial for these systems especially under climate change conditions. Thus, a significant reduction of transpiration was detected when the cover crops were implanted. When the climatic conditions were more limited (reductions of around 21% for the annual precipitation and increases around 13% for reference evapotranspiration), the impact on olive orchards were critical, affecting seriously the profitability of the olive orchards. In this context, cover crops can be considered as part of adaptation strategies. Further studies will be required for the determination of optimal species and varieties to be used as cover crops to reduce the impact of climate change on olive orchards under semi-arid conditions. References Abazi U, Lorite IJ, Cárceles B, Martínez-Raya A, Durán VH, Francia JR, Gómez JA (2013) WABOL: A conceptual water balance model for analyzing rainfall water use in olive orchards under different soil and cover crop Management strategies. Computers and Electronics in Agriculture 91:35-48 Dosio A, Paruolo P (2011) Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, V 116, D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A, Paruolo P, Rojas R (2012) Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research, V 117, D17, doi: 10.1029/2012JD017968

The vulnerability of organic matter in Swiss forest soils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

González Domínguez, Beatriz; Niklaus, Pascal A.; Studer, Mirjam S.; Hagedorn, Frank; Wacker, Lukas; Haghipour, Negar; Zimmermann, Stephan; Walthert, Lorenz; Abiven, Samuel; McIntyre, Cameron

2017-04-01

Soils contain more carbon than atmosphere and terrestrial vegetation combined [1], and thus are key players in the carbon cycle. With climate change, the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool is vulnerable to loss through increased CO2 emissions, which in turn can amplify changes with this carbon feedback [2]. The objective of this study is to investigate the variation of indicators of SOC vulnerability (e.g. SOC mineralisation, turnover time, bulk soil and mineralised 14C signatures) and to evaluate climate, soil and terrain variables as primary drivers. To choose the study locations we used a statistics-based approach to select a balanced combination of 54 forest sites with de-correlated drivers of SOC vulnerability (i.e. proxies for soil temperature and moisture, pH, % clay, slope gradient and orientation). Sites were selected from the forest soil database of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL), which in May 2014, contained data from 1,050 soil profiles spread across Switzerland. We re-sampled soils at the 54 locations during summer 2014. With these samples we run a standardized laboratory soil incubation (i.e. 25°C; soils moisture -20kPa; sieved to ≤ 2 mm; 40 g equivalent dry mass; adjusted to 0.8 g cm-3 bulk density) and measured SOC mineralisation on days 4, 13, 30, 63, 121 and 181 by trapping the CO2 evolved from soils in sodium hydroxide traps [3]. Additionally, we measured the 14C signature of the carbon trapped during last stage of the incubation, and compare it to the 14C signature of the bulk soil. Based on the cumulative SOC mineralised, we found that despite the well-studied relationship between climate and SOC dynamics [4], temperature did not emerge as a predictor of SOC vulnerability. In parallel, moisture only had a minor role, with soils from drier sites being the most vulnerable. This indicates a possible limitation of heterotrophic activity due to water shortage. On the other hand, soil pH raised as the driver that best explained the variability of SOC vulnerability, with alkaline soils being the most vulnerable. This could be explained by the strongest adsorption of nitrogen organic compounds to minerals at lower pH [5]. We conclude that in temperate forests, the control that soil properties exert on SOC dynamics might outweigh the control of climate. Therefore, soil properties should be appropriately represented in Earth system models to obtain more realistic projections under different climate scenarios. 1. Ciais P, Sabine C, Bala G, Bopp L, Brovkin V, Canadell J, et al. Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles. Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, Tignor M, Allen SK, Boschung J, et al., editors. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA; 2013. 2. Luo Y, Ahlström A, Allison SD, Batjes NH, Brovkin V, Carvalhais N, et al. Toward more realistic projections of soil carbon dynamics by Earth system models. Global Biogeochem Cycles. 2016;30: 40-56. doi:10.1002/2015GB005239 3. Wollum A, Gomez J. A conductivity method for measuring microbially evolved carbon dioxide. Ecology. 1970;51: 155-156. doi:10.2307/1933610 4. Raich JW, Tufekciogul A. Vegetation and soil respiration: Correlations and controls. Biogeochemistry. 2000;48: 71-90. doi:10.1023/A:1006112000616 5. Yu WH, Li N, Tong DS, Zhou CH, Lin CX (Cynthia), Xu CY. Adsorption of proteins and nucleic acids on clay minerals and their interactions: A review. Appl Clay Sci. 2013;80-81: 443-452. doi:10.1016/j.clay.2013.06.003

Gross and net land cover changes in the main plant functional types derived from the annual ESA CCI land cover maps (1992-2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wei; MacBean, Natasha; Ciais, Philippe; Defourny, Pierre; Lamarche, Céline; Bontemps, Sophie; Houghton, Richard A.; Peng, Shushi

2018-01-01

Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) impacts local energy and water balance and contributes on global scale to a net carbon emission to the atmosphere. The newly released annual ESA CCI (climate change initiative) land cover maps provide continuous land cover changes at 300 m resolution from 1992 to 2015, and can be used in land surface models (LSMs) to simulate LULCC effects on carbon stocks and on surface energy budgets. Here we investigate the absolute areas and gross and net changes in different plant functional types (PFTs) derived from ESA CCI products. The results are compared with other datasets. Global areas of forest, cropland and grassland PFTs from ESA are 30.4, 19.3 and 35.7 million km2 in the year 2000. The global forest area is lower than that from LUH2v2h (Hurtt et al., 2011), Hansen et al. (2013) or Houghton and Nassikas (2017) while cropland area is higher than LUH2v2h (Hurtt et al., 2011), in which cropland area is from HYDE 3.2 (Klein Goldewijk et al., 2016). Gross forest loss and gain during 1992-2015 are 1.5 and 0.9 million km2 respectively, resulting in a net forest loss of 0.6 million km2, mainly occurring in South and Central America. The magnitudes of gross changes in forest, cropland and grassland PFTs in the ESA CCI are smaller than those in other datasets. The magnitude of global net cropland gain for the whole period is consistent with HYDE 3.2 (Klein Goldewijk et al., 2016), but most of the increases happened before 2004 in ESA and after 2007 in HYDE 3.2. Brazil, Bolivia and Indonesia are the countries with the largest net forest loss from 1992 to 2015, and the decreased areas are generally consistent with those from Hansen et al. (2013) based on Landsat 30 m resolution images. Despite discrepancies compared to other datasets, and uncertainties in converting into PFTs, the new ESA CCI products provide the first detailed long-term time series of land-cover change and can be implemented in LSMs to characterize recent carbon dynamics, and in climate models to simulate land-cover change feedbacks on climate. The annual ESA CCI land cover products can be downloaded from http://maps.elie.ucl.ac.be/CCI/viewer/download.php (Land Cover Maps - v2.0.7; see details in Sect. 5). The PFT map translation protocol and an example in 2000 can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.834229. The annual ESA CCI PFT maps from 1992 to 2015 at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution can also be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1048163.

Scepticism and Trust: Two Counterpoint Essentials in Science Education for Complex Socio-Scientific Issues

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fensham, Peter J.

2014-01-01

In this response to Tom G. K. Bryce and Stephen P. Day's ("Cult Stud Sci Educ." doi:10.1007/s11422-013-9500-0, 2013) original article, I share with them their interest in the teaching of climate change in school science, but I widen it to include other contemporary complex socio-scientific issues that also need to be discussed. I…

A review of the possible impacts of long-term oceanic and climate changes and fishing mortality on recruitment of anguillid eels of the Northern Hemisphere.

PubMed

Knights, B

2003-07-01

Possible causes of declines in recruitment of European, American and Japanese eels to continental waters are reviewed. Negative correlations between the Den Oever glass eel recruitment index (DOI) and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index since 1938 are discussed, together with older anecdotal evidence. Correlations are established between the DOI and sea surface temperature anomalies at 100-250 m between 1952 and 1995 in the Sargasso Sea/Sub-Tropical Gyre (STG) spawning area. It is hypothesised that, associated with global warming trends, STG warming inhibits spring thermocline mixing and nutrient circulation, with negative impacts on productivity and hence food for leptocephalus larvae. Concurrent gyre spin-up also affects major currents and slowing of oceanic migration has probably enhanced starvation and predation losses. Local factors, such as unfavourable wind-driven currents, can also affect recruitment of glass eels on continental shelves. In contrast, evidence is discussed that indicates fishing mortality and continental climate change appear to have had lesser impacts. Similar starvation-advection explanations for declines in Japanese eel recruitment are proposed. Predictions for the future are made and multidisciplinary and integrated monitoring and research are recommended for managing eel stocks and fisheries.

An Evidence-Based Public Health Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

PubMed Central

Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E.; Raab, Kristin K.; Luber, George

2014-01-01

Background: Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Objectives: Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. Methods: We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. Discussion: A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. Conclusions: The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders. Citation: Hess JJ, Eidson M, Tlumak JE, Raab KK, Luber G. 2014. An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation. Environ Health Perspect 122:1177–1186; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307396 PMID:25003495

Variability of space climate and its extremes with successive solar cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Hush, Phillip; Tindale, Elisabeth; Dunlop, Malcolm; Watkins, Nicholas

2016-04-01

Auroral geomagnetic indices coupled with in situ solar wind monitors provide a comprehensive data set, spanning several solar cycles. Space climate can be considered as the distribution of space weather. We can then characterize these observations in terms of changing space climate by quantifying how the statistical properties of ensembles of these observed variables vary between different phases of the solar cycle. We first consider the AE index burst distribution. Bursts are constructed by thresholding the AE time series; the size of a burst is the sum of the excess in the time series for each time interval over which the threshold is exceeded. The distribution of burst sizes is two component with a crossover in behaviour at thresholds ≈ 1000 nT. Above this threshold, we find[1] a range over which the mean burst size is almost constant with threshold for both solar maxima and minima. The burst size distribution of the largest events has a functional form which is exponential. The relative likelihood of these large events varies from one solar maximum and minimum to the next. If the relative overall activity of a solar maximum/minimum can be estimated, these results then constrain the likelihood of extreme events of a given size for that solar maximum/minimum. We next develop and apply a methodology to quantify how the full distribution of geomagnetic indices and upstream solar wind observables are changing between and across different solar cycles. This methodology[2] estimates how different quantiles of the distribution, or equivalently, how the return times of events of a given size, are changing. [1] Hush, P., S. C. Chapman, M. W. Dunlop, and N. W. Watkins (2015), Robust statistical properties of the size of large burst events in AE, Geophys. Res. Lett.,42 doi:10.1002/2015GL066277 [2] Chapman, S. C., D. A. Stainforth, N. W. Watkins, (2013) On estimating long term local climate trends , Phil. Trans. Royal Soc., A,371 20120287 DOI:10.1098/rsta.2012.0287

Digital Object Identifiers for NASA's Earth Observing System Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moses, J. F.; James, N.

2012-12-01

The science community has long recognized the importance of citing data in published literature to encourage replication of experiments and verification of results. Authors that try to cite their data often find that publishers will not accept Internet addresses because they are viewed as transient references, frequently changed by the data provider after the paper is published. Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) and the DOI® System were created to avoid this problem by providing a unique and persistent identifier scheme and an online resolution service. DOIs and the Internet service provided by the DOI System have emerged as the most acceptable scheme for publishers. NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project, in cooperation with several Earth Observing System (EOS) instrument teams and data providers, has developed methods for assigning DOIs to EOS products. By assigning DOIs we are enabling authors and publishers to find it easier and more compelling to cite EOS data products. DOIs are unique alphanumeric strings that consist of a prefix and suffix. The prefix is assigned by a registration agency for the DOI System. The suffix must be unique, but is otherwise free to be constructed by the publisher, in this case NASA ESDIS Project. A strategy was needed for constructing DOI suffix names that corresponds to each EOS product. Since the onset of the DOI System, publishers have developed conventions to suit their own purposes. These range from random generation to complex, formally controlled vocabularies. An overarching ESDIS goal has been for the DOI names to be attractive for researchers to use in publication applications. Keeping them short and simple is paramount. When adding meaning to the string, it is also important that the name only refer to the data and not to the publisher, so that the DOI can be accepted as persistent even if the data is moved to a new publisher. Most users download EOS product files to their local facilities when they want to use the data for analysis or applications. By imbedding DOIs in the file metadata, users have access to the DOI value long after the product has left the source data center. This enables users to find documentation about the product in the future - long after it has left the contextual environment of the data provider. Existing HDF and netCDF metadata structures have been adapted to accommodate the addition of DOIs. In addition, associated EOSDIS core metadata will also contain a product specific attribute for DOIs. Advances in computer science and Internet brought about a host of data identification schemes designed to solve problems inherent in developing advanced provenance models. Lessons from trying to use early satellite observations in climate studies today point to the importance of providing links in data archives to documentation and publications about the data. Data system engineers link data records to standard product documentation prepared at the time of the mission and archive with the data, but will need to add links to the whole range of information needed to support future research and long-term climate studies. DOIs can serve this need if referenced by developers when preparing technical data and reports, as well as when publishing research results.

Radiocarbon dating and Dendrochronology for Statigraphic Units near Tebano, Senio Northern Apennines - Time frame of Climatic Fluctuation at the onset of the Younger Dryas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eggenschwiler, Loren; Hajdas, Irka; Cherubini, Paolo; Picotti, Vincenzo; Saurer, Matthias

2017-04-01

The presence of Pinus [sylvestris] provides an insight into dramatic events due to climatic changes. Several major and minor climatic fluctuations have had a strong impact on terrestrial and marine environments since the last glacial period to present day (Ravazzi et al. 2006). This study aims to describe the response of a fluvial environment through the use of dendrochronology and stratigraphy. Here, we intend to get a better understanding of how these climatic fluctuations affect the behavior of the Senio River (Lotter et al. 1992). In Tebano, Italy, several Pinus sylvestris subfossil trunks were discovered during excavation for an irrigation pool. Subfossil samples were collected to analyze the climate during the Younger Dryas (11,000 years BP) in detail. Charcoal samples from the Bubano clay quarry extend our research to further to 35,500 cal. years BP. The combination of dendrochronology along with stratigraphy allowed us to examine the climate at a detailed local and apply it to a broader spectrum. Tree-ring measurements and cross dating provided a better understanding and verification of extreme events that occurred during the lifespans of the trees. The use of stable isotopes indicates the extreme conditions that occurred. Radiocarbon dating validates the age of the samples and what geological period they come from. Along with stratigraphy, we were able to compile depth data to create a sediment curve. Using various methods throughout this study, we discovered the climatic situation of Pinus 11,000 years BP and are able to compare them with samples from today. These present day samples mark two of the southernmost extents of the Pinus population. We were then able to comprehend the magnitude of sediment supply and precipitation. Through this collection of methods and data, we are able to understand the influence of climate change in the past and the potential changes of the future. REFERENCES Lotter, A. F.; Eicher, U.; Siegenthaler, U.; Birks, H. J. B. (1992): Late-glacial climatic oscillations as recorded in Swiss lake sediments. In Journal of Quaternary Science 7. DOI: 10.1002/jqs.3390070302. Ravazzi, Cesare; Donegana, Marta; Vescovi, Elisa; Arpenti, Enrico; Caccianiga, Marco; Kaltenrieder, Petra et al. (2006): A new Late-glacial site with Picea abies in the northern Apennine foothills. An exception to the model of glacial refugia of trees. In Veget Hist Archaeobot 15 (4), pp. 357-371. DOI: 10.1007/s00334-006-0055-9.

A new phase in the production of quality-controlled sea level data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quartly, Graham D.; Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michaël; Zawadzki, Lionel; Joana Fernandes, M.; Rudenko, Sergei; Carrère, Loren; Nilo García, Pablo; Cipollini, Paolo; Andersen, Ole B.; Poisson, Jean-Christophe; Mbajon Njiche, Sabrina; Cazenave, Anny; Benveniste, Jérôme

2017-08-01

Sea level is an essential climate variable (ECV) that has a direct effect on many people through inundations of coastal areas, and it is also a clear indicator of climate changes due to external forcing factors and internal climate variability. Regional patterns of sea level change inform us on ocean circulation variations in response to natural climate modes such as El Niño and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and anthropogenic forcing. Comparing numerical climate models to a consistent set of observations enables us to assess the performance of these models and help us to understand and predict these phenomena, and thereby alleviate some of the environmental conditions associated with them. All such studies rely on the existence of long-term consistent high-accuracy datasets of sea level. The Climate Change Initiative (CCI) of the European Space Agency was established in 2010 to provide improved time series of some ECVs, including sea level, with the purpose of providing such data openly to all to enable the widest possible utilisation of such data. Now in its second phase, the Sea Level CCI project (SL_cci) merges data from nine different altimeter missions in a clear, consistent and well-documented manner, selecting the most appropriate satellite orbits and geophysical corrections in order to further reduce the error budget. This paper summarises the corrections required, the provenance of corrections and the evaluation of options that have been adopted for the recently released v2.0 dataset (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612). This information enables scientists and other users to clearly understand which corrections have been applied and their effects on the sea level dataset. The overall result of these changes is that the rate of rise of global mean sea level (GMSL) still equates to ˜ 3.2 mm yr-1 during 1992-2015, but there is now greater confidence in this result as the errors associated with several of the corrections have been reduced. Compared with v1.1 of the SL_cci dataset, the new rate of change is 0.2 mm yr-1 less during 1993 to 2001 and 0.2 mm yr-1 higher during 2002 to 2014. Application of new correction models brought a reduction of altimeter crossover variances for most corrections.

Quantifying the effect of Tmax extreme events on local adaptation to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabaldon, Clara; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Ines Minguez, M.; Lizaso, Jon; Dosio, Alessandro; Sanchez, Enrique; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2015-04-01

Extreme events of Tmax can threaten maize production on Andalusia (Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2011). The objective of this work is to attempt a quantification of the effects of Tmax extreme events on the previously identified (Gabaldón et al., 2013) local adaptation strategies to climate change of irrigated maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of the 21st century. This study is focused on five Andalusia locations. Local adaptation strategies identified consisted on combinations of changes on sowing dates and choice of cultivar (Gabaldón et al., 2013). Modified cultivar features were the duration of phenological phases and the grain filling rate. The phenological and yield simulations with the adaptative changes were obtained from a modelling chain: current simulated climate and future climate scenarios (2013-2050) were taken from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). After bias correcting these data for temperature and precipitation (Dosio and Paruolo, 2011; Dosio et al., 2012) crop simulations were generated by the CERES-maize model (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) under DSSAT platform, previously calibrated and validated. Quantification of the effects of extreme Tmax on maize yield was computed for different phenological stages following Teixeira et al. (2013). A heat stress index was computed; this index assumes that yield-damage intensity due to heat stress increases linearly from 0.0 at a critical temperature to a maximum of 1.0 at a limit temperature. The decrease of crop yield is then computed by a normalized production damage index which combines attainable yield and heat stress index for each location. Selection of the most suitable adaptation strategy will be reviewed and discussed in light of the quantified effect on crop yield of the projected change of Tmax extreme events. This study will contribute to MACSUR knowledge Hub within the Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE - JPI) of EU and is financed by MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) and IFAPA project AGR6126 from Junta de Andalucía, Spain. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116, D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Gabaldón C, Lorite IJ, Mínguez MI, Dosio A, Sánchez-Sánchez E and Ruiz-Ramos M, 2013. Evaluation of local adaptation strategies to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of 21st century. Geophysical Research Abstracts. Vol. 15, EGU2013-13625, 2013. EGU General Assembly 2013, April 2013, Vienna, Austria. Jones C.A. and J.R. Kiniry. 1986. CERES-Maize: A simulation model of maize growth and development. Texas A&M Univ. Press, College Station. Ruiz-Ramos M., E. Sanchez, C. Galllardo, and M.I. Minguez. 2011. Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 11: 3275-3291. Teixeira EI, Fischer G, van Velthuizen H, Walter C, Ewert F. Global hotspots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change. Agric For Meteorol. 2013;170(15):206-215.

Impacts of Climate and Land-cover Changes on Water Resources in a Humid Subtropical Watershed: a Case Study from East Texas, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heo, J.

2015-12-01

This study investigates an interconnected system of climate change - land cover - water resources for a watershed in humid subtropical climate from 1970 to 2009. A 0.7°C increase in temperature and a 16.3% increase in precipitation were observed in our study area where temperature had no obvious increase trend and precipitation showed definite increasing trend compared to previous studies. The main trend of land-cover change was conversion of vegetation and barren lands to developed and crop lands affected by human intervention, and forest and grass to bush/shrub which considered to be caused by natural climate system. Precipitation contribution to the other hydrologic parameters for a humid subtropical basin is estimated to be 51.9% of evapotranspiration, 16.3% of surface runoff, 0.9% of groundwater discharge, 19.3% of soil water content, and 11.6% of water storage. It shows little higher evapotranspiration and considerably lower surface runoff compare to other humid climate area due to vegetation dominance of land cover. Hydrologic responses to climate and land cover changes are increases of surface runoff, soil water content, evapotranspiration by 15.0%, 2.7%, and 20.1%, respectively, and decrease of groundwater discharge decreased by 9.2%. Surface runoff is relatively stable with precipitation while groundwater discharge and soil water content are sensitive to land cover changes especially human intervention. If temperature is relatively stable, it is considered to be land cover plays important role in evapotranspiration. Citation: Heo, J., J. Yu, J. R. Giardino, and H. Cho (2015), Impacts of climate and land-cover changes on water resources in a humid subtropical watershed: a case study from East Texas, USA, Water Environ. J., 29, doi:10.1111/wej.12096

Multiple Threats to Child Health from Fossil Fuel Combustion: Impacts of Air Pollution and Climate Change

PubMed Central

Perera, Frederica P.

2016-01-01

Background: Approaches to estimating and addressing the risk to children from fossil fuel combustion have been fragmented, tending to focus either on the toxic air emissions or on climate change. Yet developing children, and especially poor children, now bear a disproportionate burden of disease from both environmental pollution and climate change due to fossil fuel combustion. Objective: This commentary summarizes the robust scientific evidence regarding the multiple current and projected health impacts of fossil fuel combustion on the young to make the case for a holistic, child-centered energy and climate policy that addresses the full array of physical and psychosocial stressors resulting from fossil fuel pollution. Discussion: The data summarized here show that by sharply reducing our dependence on fossil fuels we would achieve highly significant health and economic benefits for our children and their future. These benefits would occur immediately and also play out over the life course and potentially across generations. Conclusion: Going beyond the powerful scientific and economic arguments for urgent action to reduce the burning of fossil fuels is the strong moral imperative to protect our most vulnerable populations. Citation: Perera FP. 2017. Multiple threats to child health from fossil fuel combustion: impacts of air pollution and climate change. Environ Health Perspect 125:141–148; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP299 PMID:27323709

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Stephen, Dimity Maree; Barnett, Adrian Gerard

2017-12-11

The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016-2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models' potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370.

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background: The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. Objective: We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. Methods: We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Results: Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. Conclusion: We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016–2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models’ potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370 PMID:29233795

Trend of surface solar radiation over Asia simulated by aerosol transport-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takemura, T.; Ohmura, A.

2009-12-01

Long-term records of surface radiation measurements indicate a decrease in the solar radiation between the 1950s and 1980s (“global dimming”), then its recovery afterward (“global brightening”) at many locations all over the globe [Wild, 2009]. On the other hand, the global brightening is delayed over the Asian region [Ohmura, 2009]. It is suggested that these trends of the global dimming and brightening are strongly related with a change in aerosol loading in the atmosphere which affect the climate change through the direct, semi-direct, and indirect effects. In this study, causes of the trend of the surface solar radiation over Asia during last several decades are analyzed with an aerosol transport-climate model, SPRINTARS. SPRINTARS is coupled with MIROC which is a general circulation model (GCM) developed by Center for Climate System Research (CCSR)/University of Tokyo, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), and Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) [Takemura et al., 2000, 2002, 2005, 2009]. The horizontal and vertical resolutions are T106 (approximately 1.1° by 1.1°) and 56 layers, respectively. SPRINTARS includes the transport, radiation, cloud, and precipitation processes of all main tropospheric aerosols (black and organic carbons, sulfate, soil dust, and sea salt). The model treats not only the aerosol mass mixing ratios but also the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations as prognostic variables, and the nucleation processes of cloud droplets and ice crystals depend on the number concentrations of each aerosol species. Changes in the cloud droplet and ice crystal number concentrations affect the cloud radiation and precipitation processes in the model. Historical emissions, that is consumption of fossil fuel and biofuel, biomass burning, aircraft emissions, and volcanic eruptions are prescribed from database provided by the Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (AeroCom) and the latest IPCC inventories. Continuous hindcast simulation during the last several decades is done to compare with surface radiation measurements. Cause of the global dimming and brightening is separated into the aerosol direct and indirect effects from the simulation. Acknowledgments. The simulation in this study was performed on the NIES supercomputer system (NEC SX-8R). This study is partly supported by the Global Environment Research Fund (RF-091) by the Ministry of the Environment of Japan, Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientist (21681001) by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science, and Technology of Japan, and Mitsui & Co., Ltd. Environment Fund (R08-D035). References Ohmura, A. (2009), J. Geophys. Res., 114, doi:10.1029/2008JD011290. Takemura, T., et al. (2000), J. Geophys. Res., 105, 17853-17873. Takemura, T., et al. (2002), J. Climate, 15, 333-352. Takemura, T., et al. (2005), J. Geophys. Res., 110, doi:10.1029/2004JD005029. Takemura, T., et al. (2009), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 3061-3073. Wild, M. (2009), J. Geophys. Res., 114, doi:10.1029/2008JD011470.

New microphysical volcanic forcing datasets for the Agung, El Chichon and Pinatubo eruptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhomse, Sandip; Mann, Graham; Marshall, Lauren; Carslaw, Kenneth; Chipperfield, Martyn; Bellouin, Nicolas; Morgenstern, Olaf; Johnson, Colin; O'Connor, Fiona

2017-04-01

Major tropical volcanic eruptions inject huge amounts of SO2 directly into the stratosphere, and create a long-lasting perturbation to the stratospheric aerosol. The abruptly elevated aerosol has strong climate impacts, principally surface cooling via scattering incoming solar radiation. The enhanced tropical stratospheric aerosol can also absorb outgoing long wave radiation causing a warming of the stratosphere and subsequent complex composition-dynamics responses (e.g. Dhomse et al., 2015). In this presentation we apply the composition-climate model UM-UKCA with interactive stratospheric chemistry and aerosol microphysics (Dhomse et al., 2014) to assess the enhancement to the stratospheric aerosol and associated radiative forcings from the three largest tropical eruptions in the last 60 years: Mt Agung (February 1963), El Chichon (April 1982) and Mt. Pinatubo (June 1991). Accurately characterising the forcing signature from these major eruptions is important for attribution of recent climate change and volcanic effects have been identified as a key requirement for robust attribution of multi-decadal surface temperature trends (e.g. Marotzke and Forster, 2015). Aligning with the design of the ISA-MIP co-ordinated multi-model "Historical Eruption SO2 Emissions Assessment" (HErSEA), we have carried out 3-member ensemble of simulations with each of upper, low and mid-point best estimates for SO2 and injection height for each eruption. We evaluate simulated aerosol properties (e.g. extinction, AOD, effective radius, particle size distribution) against a range of satellite and in-situ observational datasets and assess stratospheric heating against temperature anomalies are compared against reanalysis and other datasets. References: Dhomse SS, Chipperfield MP, Feng W, Hossaini R, Mann GW, Santee ML (2015) Revisiting the hemispheric asymmetry in midlatitude ozone changes following the Mount Pinatubo eruption: A 3-D model study, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, pp.3038-3047. doi: 10.1002/2015GL063052 Dhomse SS, Emmerson KM, Mann GW, Bellouin N, Carslaw KS, Chipperfield MP, Hommel R, Abraham NL, Telford P, Braesicke P, Dalvi M, Johnson CE, O'Connor F, Morgenstern O, Pyle JA, Deshler T, Zawodny JM, Thomason LW (2014) Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.˜Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14, pp.11221-11246. doi: 10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014 Marotzke J; Forster PM (2015) Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends, Nature, 517, pp.565-570. doi: 10.1038/nature14117

NW CSC annual report fiscal year 2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bisbal, Gustavo A.

2013-01-01

The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) was established in 2010 as one of eight regional Climate Science Centers created by the Department of the Interior (DOI). The NW CSC encompasses Washing-ton, Oregon, Idaho, and western Montana and has overlapping boundaries with three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): the Great Northern, the Great Basin, and the North Pacific. With guidance from its Executive Stakeholder Advisory Committee (ESAC), the NW CSC and its partner LCCs are addressing the highest priority regional climate science needs of Northwest natural and cultural resource managers. Climate Science Centers tap into the scientific expertise of both the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and academic institutions. The NW CSC is supported by an academic consortium with the capacity to generate climate science and tools in a coordinated fashion, serving stakeholders across the Northwest region. This consortium is primarily represented by Oregon State University (OSU), the University of Id-ho (UI), and the University of Washington (UW). The academic consortium and USGS provide capabilities in climate science, ecology, impacts and vulnerability assessment, modeling, adaptation planning, and advanced information technology, all necessary to address and respond to climate change in the Northwest. University members also recruit and train graduate students and early-career scientists. This Annual Report summarizes progress for the goals set out in the NW CSC Strategic Plan for 2012-2015 (http://www.doi.gov/csc/northwest/upload/Northwest-CSC-Strategic-Plan.cfm) and the NW CSC Work-plan for Fiscal Year (FY) 2013 (October 1, 2012 through September 30, 2013). The report follows the structure of the Strategic Plan, which describes the five core services (Executive, Science, Data, Communications, and Education and Training) provided by the NW CSC in support of the stated vision: Our Vision: To become nationally recognized as a best-practice model for the provision of climate science and decision support tools to address conservation and management issues in the Pacific Northwest Region.

Coral Ensemble Estimates of Central Pacific Mean Climate During the Little Ice Age

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayani, H. R.; Cobb, K. M.; O'Connor, G.; Khare, A.; Atwood, A. R.; Grothe, P. R.; Chen, T.; Hagos, M. M.; Hitt, N. T.; Thompson, D. M.; Deocampo, D.; Lu, Y.; Cheng, H.; Edwards, R. L.

2016-12-01

Multi-century, robust records of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS) variability from the pre-industrial era are needed to quantify anthropogenic contributions to present-day climate trends and to improve the accuracy of regional climate projections. However, high-resolution reconstructions of tropical Pacific climate are scarce prior to the 20th century, and only a handful exist from the Little Ice Age (LIA, 1500-1850CE) immediately prior to the documented rise of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Modern and fossil corals from the northern Line Islands (2-6°N, 157-162°W) have been used to extend the instrumental climate record back into the LIA and beyond, primarily for paleo-ENSO investigations [Cobb et al., 2003, 2013]. However, large offsets in mean coral Sr/Ca and δ18O values observed across overlapping coral colonies translate into 1-2°C (1σ) uncertainties for mean climate reconstructions based on any single fossil coral colony. Here we present the results of a new approach to reconstructing mean climate during the LIA using a large ensemble (N>10) of relatively short (7-15yr long), U/Th-dated fossil corals from Christmas Island (2°N, 157°W). We employ pseudo-coral estimates of paleo-SST and paleo-seawater δ18O variations as benchmarks for our reconstructions, with a focus on quantifying the maximum and minimum potential tropical Pacific SST changes during the LIA that are consistent with our new ensemble of coral data. Lastly, by comparing bulk and high-resolution coral d18O and Sr/Ca records, we identify the strengths and limitations of using a high-N, ensemble approach to climate reconstruction from fossil corals. References:Cobb, K. M., et al. (2003) Nature. doi:10.1038/nature01779Cobb, K. M., et al. (2013) Science. doi: 10.1126/science.1228246

Evaluation of local adaptation strategies to climate change of maize crop in Andalusia for the first half of 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabaldón, Clara; Lorite, Ignacio J.; Inés Mínguez, M.; Dosio, Alessandro; Sánchez-Sánchez, Enrique; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita

2013-04-01

The objective of this work is to generate and analyse adaptation strategies to cope with impacts of climate change on cereal cropping systems in Andalusia (Southern Spain) in a semi-arid environment, with focus on extreme events. In Andalusia, located in the South of the Iberian Peninsula, cereals crops may be affected by the increase in average temperatures, the precipitation variability and the possible extreme events. Those impacts may cause a decrease in both water availability and the pollination rate resulting on a decrease in yield and the farmer's profitability. Designing local and regional adaptation strategies to reduce these negative impacts is necessary. This study is focused on irrigated maize on five Andalusia locations. The Andalusia Network of Agricultural Trials (RAEA in Spanish) provided the experimental crop and soil data, and the observed climate data were obtained from the Agroclimatic Information Network of Andalusia and the Spanish National Meteorological Agency (AEMET in Spanish). The data for future climate scenarios (2013-2050) were generated by Dosio and Paruolo (2011) and Dosio et al. (2012), who corrected the bias of ENSEMBLES data for maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation. ENSEMBLES data were the results of numerical simulations obtained from a group of regional climate models at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). Crop models considered were CERES-maize (Jones and Kiniry, 1986) under DSSAT platform, and CropSyst (Stockle et al., 2003). Those crop models were applied only on locations were calibration and validation were done. The effects of the adaptations strategies, such as changes in sowing dates or choice of cultivar, were evaluated regarding water consumption; changes in phenological dates were also analysed to compare with occurrence of extreme events of maximum temperature. These events represent a threat on summer crops due to the reduction on the duration of grain filling period with the consequent reduction in yield (Ruiz-Ramos et al., 2011) and with the supraoptimal temperatures in pollination. Finally, results of simulated impacts and adaptations were compared to previous studies done without bias correction of climatic projections, at low resolution and with previous versions of crop models (Mínguez et al., 2007). This study will contribute to MACSUR knowledge Hub within the Joint Programming Initiative on Agriculture, Food Security and Climate Change (FACCE - JPI) of EU and is financed by MULCLIVAR project (CGL2012-38923-C02-02) and IFAPA project AGR6126 from Junta de Andalucía, Spain. References Dosio A. and Paruolo P., 2011. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high-resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Evaluation on the present climate. Journal of Geophysical Research, VOL. 116, D16106, doi:10.1029/2011JD015934 Dosio A., Paruolo P. and Rojas R., 2012. Bias correction of the ENSEMBLES high resolution climate change projections for use by impact models: Analysis of the climate change signal. Journal of Geophysical Research, Volume 117, D17, doi: 0.1029/2012JD017968 Jones, C.A., and J.R. Kiniry. 1986. CERES-Maize: A simulation model of maize growth and development. Texas A&M Univ. Press, College Station. Mínguez, M.I., M. Ruiz-ramos, C.H. Díaz-Ambrona, and M. Quemada. 2007. First-order impacts on winter and summer crops assessed with various high-resolution climate models in the Iberian Peninsula. Climatic Change 81: 343-355. Ruiz-Ramos, M., E. Sanchez, C. Galllardo, and M.I. Minguez. 2011. Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 11: 3275-3291. Stockle, C.O., M. Donatelli, and R. Nelson. 2003. CropSyst , a cropping systems simulation model. European Journal of Agronomy18: 289-307.

Attribution of hydrological change using the Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrigan, Shaun

2017-04-01

The methods we have developed for managing our long-term water supply and protection from extreme hydrological events such as droughts and floods have been founded on the assumption that the hydrological cycle operates under natural conditions. However, it increasingly recognised that humans have the potential to induce significant change in almost every component of the hydrological cycle, for example, climate change, land-use change, and river engineering. Statistical detection of change in streamflow, outside that of natural variability, is an important scientific endeavour, but it does not tell us anything about the drivers of change. Attribution is the process of establishing the most likely cause(s) of a detected change - the why. Attribution is complex due to the integrated nature of streamflow and the proliferation of multiple possible drivers. It is perhaps this complexity, combined with few proven theoretical approaches to this problem in hydrology that has led to others to call for "more efforts and scientific rigour" (Merz et al., 2012). It is easier to limit the cause of a detected change to a single driver, or use simple correlation analysis alone as evidence of causation. It is convenient when the direction of a change in streamflow is consistent with what is expected from a well-known driver such as climate change. Over a century ago, Thomas Chamberlin argued these types of issues were common in many disciplines given how the scientific method is approached in general. His 1890 article introduces the Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses (MMWH) in an attempt to limit our confirmation bias and strives for increased objectivity. This presentation will argue that the MMWH offers an attractive theoretical approach to the attribution of hydrological change in modern hydrology as demonstrated through a case study of a well-documented change point in streamflow within the Boyne Catchment in Ireland. Further Reading Chamberlin, T. C.: The Method of Multiple Working Hypotheses, Science (old series), 15(366), 92-96, doi:10.1126/science.ns-15.366.92, 1890. Harrigan, S., Murphy, C., Hall, J., Wilby, R. L. and Sweeney, J.: Attribution of detected changes in streamflow using multiple working hypotheses, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18(5), 1935-1952, doi:10.5194/hess-18-1935-2014, 2014. Merz, B., Vorogushyn, S., Uhlemann, S., Delgado, J. and Hundecha, Y.: HESS Opinions "More efforts and scientific rigour are needed to attribute trends in flood time series," Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16(5), 1379-1387, doi:10.5194/hess-16-1379-2012, 2012.

A 20-year record (1998-2017) of permafrost, active layer and meteorological conditions at a high Arctic permafrost research site (Bayelva, Spitsbergen)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boike, Julia; Juszak, Inge; Lange, Stephan; Chadburn, Sarah; Burke, Eleanor; Overduin, Pier Paul; Roth, Kurt; Ippisch, Olaf; Bornemann, Niko; Stern, Lielle; Gouttevin, Isabelle; Hauber, Ernst; Westermann, Sebastian

2018-03-01

Most permafrost is located in the Arctic, where frozen organic carbon makes it an important component of the global climate system. Despite the fact that the Arctic climate changes more rapidly than the rest of the globe, observational data density in the region is low. Permafrost thaw and carbon release to the atmosphere are a positive feedback mechanism that can exacerbate global warming. This positive feedback functions via changing land-atmosphere energy and mass exchanges. There is thus a great need to understand links between the energy balance, which can vary rapidly over hourly to annual timescales, and permafrost, which changes slowly over long time periods. This understanding thus mandates long-term observational data sets. Such a data set is available from the Bayelva site at Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, where meteorology, energy balance components and subsurface observations have been made for the last 20 years. Additional data include a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) that can be used together with the snow physical information for snowpack modeling and a panchromatic image. This paper presents the data set produced so far, explains instrumentation, calibration, processing and data quality control, as well as the sources for various resulting data sets. The resulting data set is unique in the Arctic and serves as a baseline for future studies. The mean permafrost temperature is -2.8 °C, with a zero-amplitude depth at 5.5 m (2009-2017). Since the data provide observations of temporally variable parameters that mitigate energy fluxes between permafrost and atmosphere, such as snow depth and soil moisture content, they are suitable for use in integrating, calibrating and testing permafrost as a component in earth system models.The presented data are available in the Supplement for this paper (time series) and through the PANGAEA and Zenodo data portals: time series (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.880120, https://zenodo.org/record/1139714) and HRSC-AX data products (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.884730, https://zenodo.org/record/1145373).

On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowack, P. J.; Braesicke, P.; Abraham, N. L.; Pyle, J. A.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific is of key importance to global climate and weather. However, climate models still disagree on the ENSO's response under climate change. Here we show that typical model representations of ozone can have a first-order impact on ENSO amplitude projections in climate sensitivity simulations (i.e. standard abrupt 4xCO2). We mainly explain this effect by the lapse rate adjustment of the tropical troposphere to ozone changes in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) under 4xCO2. The ozone-induced lapse rate changes modify the Walker circulation response to the CO2 forcing and consequently tropical Pacific surface temperature gradients. Therefore, not including ozone feedbacks increases the number of extreme ENSO events in our model. In addition, we demonstrate that even if ozone changes in the tropical UTLS are included in the simulations, the neglect of the ozone response in the middle-upper stratosphere still leads to significantly larger ENSO amplitudes (compared to simulations run with a fully interactive atmospheric chemistry scheme). Climate modeling studies of the ENSO often neglect changes in ozone. Our results imply that this could affect the inter-model spread found in ENSO projections and, more generally, surface climate change simulations. We discuss the additional complexity in quantifying such ozone-related effects that arises from the apparent model dependency of chemistry-climate feedbacks and, possibly, their range of surface climate impacts. In conclusion, we highlight the need to understand better the coupling between ozone, the tropospheric circulation, and climate variability. Reference: Nowack PJ, Braesicke P, Abraham NL, and Pyle JA (2017), On the role of ozone feedback in the ENSO amplitude response under global warming, Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3858-3866, doi:10.1002/2016GL072418.

Identification of Atmospheric Blocking Events and its Influence on Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richling, Andy; Rust, Henning W.; Bissolli, Peter; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

Atmospheric blocking plays a crucial role in climate variability in the mid-latitudes. Especially meteorological extremes like heatwaves, cold spells and droughts are often related to persistent and stationary blocking events. For climate monitoring it is important to identify and characterise such blocking events as well as to analyse the relationship between blockings and meteorological extremes in a quantitative way. In this study we identify atmospheric blocking events and analyse the influence on temperature and precipitation extremes with statistical models. For the detection of atmospheric blocking events, we apply modified 2-dimensional versions of commonly used blocking indices suggested by Tibaldi and Molteni (1990) as well as Masato et al. (2013) on daily fields of 500hPa geopotential heights of the Era-Interim reanalysis dataset. A result is a list of blocking events with a multidimensional index characterising area, intensity, location and duration and maps of these parameters, which are intended to be used operationally for regular climate diagnostics at the German Meteorological Service. In addition, relationships between grid-point-base blocking frequency, intensity and location parameters and the number of daily temperature/precipitation extremes based on the E-OBS gridded dataset are investigated using general linear models on a monthly time scale. The number of counts as well as probabilities of occurrence of daily extremes within a certain calendar month will be analysed in this framework. G. Masato, B. J. Hoskins, and T. Woollings. Winter and Summer Northern Hemisphere Blocking in CMIP5 Models. J. Climate, 26:7044-7059, 2013a. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D- 12-00466.1. G. Masato, B. J. Hoskins, and T. Woollings. Wave-Breaking Characteristics of Northern Hemi- sphere Winter Blocking: A Two-Dimensional Approach. J. Climate, 26:4535-4549, 2013b. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00240.1. S. Tibaldi and F. Molteni. On the operational predictability of blocking. Tellus, 42A:343-365, 1990. doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x.

Lessons Learned on Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Experiences Across Low- and Middle-Income Countries

PubMed Central

Otmani del Barrio, Mariam

2017-01-01

Background: There is limited published evidence of the effectiveness of adaptation in managing the health risks of climate variability and change in low- and middle-income countries. Objectives: To document lessons learned and good practice examples from health adaptation pilot projects in low- and middle-income countries to facilitate assessing and overcoming barriers to implementation and to scaling up. Methods: We evaluated project reports and related materials from the first five years of implementation (2008–2013) of multinational health adaptation projects in Albania, Barbados, Bhutan, China, Fiji, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Philippines, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. We also collected qualitative data through a focus group consultation and 19 key informant interviews. Results: Our recommendations include that national health plans, policies, and budget processes need to explicitly incorporate the risks of current and projected climate variability and change. Increasing resilience is likely to be achieved through longer-term, multifaceted, and collaborative approaches, with supporting activities (and funding) for capacity building, communication, and institutionalized monitoring and evaluation. Projects should be encouraged to focus not just on shorter-term outputs to address climate variability, but also on establishing processes to address longer-term climate change challenges. Opportunities for capacity development should be created, identified, and reinforced. Conclusions: Our analyses highlight that, irrespective of resource constraints, ministries of health and other institutions working on climate-related health issues in low- and middle-income countries need to continue to prepare themselves to prevent additional health burdens in the context of a changing climate and socioeconomic development patterns. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP405 PMID:28632491

Transatlantic flight times and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, Paul

2016-04-01

Aircraft do not fly through a vacuum, but through an atmosphere whose meteorological characteristics are changing because of global warming. The impacts of aviation on climate change have long been recognised, but the impacts of climate change on aviation have only recently begun to emerge. These impacts include intensified turbulence (Williams and Joshi 2013) and increased take-off weight restrictions. A forthcoming study (Williams 2016) investigates the influence of climate change on flight routes and journey times. This is achieved by feeding synthetic atmospheric wind fields generated from climate model simulations into a routing algorithm of the type used operationally by flight planners. The focus is on transatlantic flights between London and New York, and how they change when the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide is doubled. It is found that a strengthening of the prevailing jet-stream winds causes eastbound flights to significantly shorten and westbound flights to significantly lengthen in all seasons, causing round-trip journey times to increase. Eastbound and westbound crossings in winter become approximately twice as likely to take under 5h 20m and over 7h 00m, respectively. The early stages of this effect perhaps contributed to a well-publicised British Airways flight from New York to London on 8 January 2015, which took a record time of only 5h 16m because of a strong tailwind from an unusually fast jet stream. Even assuming no future growth in aviation, extrapolation of our results to all transatlantic traffic suggests that aircraft may collectively be airborne for an extra 2,000 hours each year, burning an extra 7.2 million gallons of jet fuel at a cost of US 22 million, and emitting an extra 70 million kg of carbon dioxide. These findings provide further evidence of the two-way interaction between aviation and climate change. References Williams PD (2016) Transatlantic flight times and climate change. Environmental Research Letters, in press. Williams PD and Joshi MM (2013) Intensification of winter transatlantic aviation turbulence in response to climate change. Nature Climate Change, 3(7), pp 644-648. doi:10.1038/nclimate1866

Global warming effects: future feasibility of current cooling equipment for animal houses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valiño, V.; Perdigones, A.; García, J. L.; de La Plaza, S.

2009-04-01

Interest in global warming effects on the agricultural systems is currently high, especially in areas which are likely to be more affected by this temperature rising, i.e. the Mediterranean area (IPCC, 2008). According to this report, the model projections of surface warming predict a temperature increase between 0.5°C to 1.5°C in the European area by the period 2020-2029. The aim of the present work was to assess the future consequences of the global warming effect on the feasibility of the cooling equipment in animal houses. Several equipment combinations were compared by means of modelling the inside climate in fattening pig houses, including forced ventilation and cooling pad. The modelling was carried out for six different European locations: Spain, Greece, Italy, The Netherlands, Germany and the United Kingdom, for the today conditions; secondly, the global warming effect in the inside climate was considered in a second set of simulations, and a mean temperature rising of 2°C was taken into account. Climate data. The six European locations were: Madrid (Spain); Aliartos (Greece); Bedford (The United Kingdom); Schipol (The Netherlands); Milan (Italy); and Stuttgart (Germany). From every location, the available climate data were monthly mean temperature (To; °C); monthly mean relative humidity (HRo, %) and monthly mean solar irradiation on horizontal surface (So; W m-2). From these monthly values, hourly means were calculated resulting in 24 data for a typical day, each month. Climate model. In this study, cooling strategies resulted from the combination of natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation and cooling pads. The climate model was developed taking into account the following energy fluxes: solar radiation, ventilation (Seginer, 2002), animal heat losses (Blanes and Pedersen, 2005), and loss of energy due to the cooling pads (Seginer, 2002). Results for the present work, show a comparative scene of the inside climate by using different cooling equipment combinations, from natural ventilation to cooling pads. Simulations which include the effects of climate change show the evolution in cooling technologies which will be necessary in this kind of animal houses, in six European locations, if the global temperature rising continues with the current rate. The necessary changes in cooling technologies of animal houses, will be important in Europe when the outside air temperature rising is greater than or equal to two Celsius degrees. Intergovernmental Panel on the Climate Change. 2008. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4syr.pdf I. Seginer. 2002. The Penman-Monteith Evapotranspiration Equation as an Element in Greenhouse Ventilation Design. Biosystems Eng. 82(4): 423-439. doi:10.1006/bioe2002.0086 V. Blanes, S. Pedersen. 2005. Ventilation Flow in Pig Houses measured and calculated by Carbon Dioxide, Moisture and Heat Balance Equations. Biosystems Eng. 92(4): 483-493. doi:10.1006/j.biosystemseng.2005.09.002

O2-MAVS: an Instrument for Measuring Oxygen Flux

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

al. (2007), “ Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification ,” Science 318:1737-1742 [20] K.R.N. Anthony, D.I. Kline, S. Dove, and...O. Hoegh-Guldberg (2008), “ Ocean acidification causes bleaching and productivity loss in coral reef builders,” Proc. Nat. Acad. of Sci. 105:doi...deployments were made on shallow, warm-water coral reefs in La Parguera, Puerto Rico. Time series of net production obtained using the boundary

Mapping the changing pattern of local climate as an observed distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapman, Sandra; Stainforth, David; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

It is at local scales that the impacts of climate change will be felt directly and at which adaptation planning decisions must be made. This requires quantifying the geographical patterns in trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. Here we focus on these local changes and on the way observational data can be analysed to inform us about the pattern of local climate change. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs the pattern of variation in sensitivity with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify and map the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities.

PubMed

McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J; Ebi, Kristie L

2016-11-01

Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries-Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a "likelihood versus impact" matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity of the countries to manage and adapt in the face of such risks. Citation: McIver L, Kim R, Woodward A, Hales S, Spickett J, Katscherian D, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Kim H, Iddings S, Naicker J, Bambrick H, McMichael AJ, Ebi KL. 2016. Health impacts of climate change in Pacific island countries: a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities. Environ Health Perspect 124:1707-1714; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756.

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities

PubMed Central

McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J.; Ebi, Kristie L.

2015-01-01

Background: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Objective: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. Methods: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a “likelihood versus impact” matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. Results: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Conclusion: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity of the countries to manage and adapt in the face of such risks. Citation: McIver L, Kim R, Woodward A, Hales S, Spickett J, Katscherian D, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Kim H, Iddings S, Naicker J, Bambrick H, McMichael AJ, Ebi KL. 2016. Health impacts of climate change in Pacific island countries: a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities. Environ Health Perspect 124:1707–1714; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756 PMID:26645102

Evaluating potentials for future generation off-shore wind-power outside Norway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benestad, R. E.; Haugen, J.; Haakenstad, H.

2012-12-01

With todays critical need of renewable energy sources, it is naturally to look towards wind power. With the long coast of Norway, there is a large potential for wind farms offshore Norway. Although there are more challenges with offshore wind energy installations compared to wind farms on land, the offshore wind is generally higher, and there is also higher persistence of wind speed values in the power generating classes. I planning offshore wind farms, there is a need of evaluation of the wind resources, the wind climatology and possible future changes. In this aspect, we use data from regional climate model runs performed in the European ENSEMBLE-project (van der Linden and J.F.B. Mitchell, 2009). In spite of increased reliability in RCMs in the recent years, the simulations still suffer from systematic model errors, therefore the data has to be corrected before using them in wind resource analyses. In correcting the wind speeds from the RCMs, we will use wind speeds from a Norwegian high resolution wind- and wave- archive, NORA10 (Reistad et al 2010), to do quantile mapping (Themeβl et. al. 2012). The quantile mapping is performed individually for each regional simulation driven by ERA40-reanalysis from the ENSEMBLE-project corrected against NORA10. The same calibration is then used to the belonging regional climate scenario. The calibration is done for each grid cell in the domain and for each day of the year centered in a +/-15 day window to make an empirical cumulative density function for each day of the year. The quantile mapping of the scenarios provide us with a new wind speed data set for the future, more correct compared to the raw ENSEMBLE scenarios. References: Reistad M., Ø. Breivik, H. Haakenstad, O. J. Aarnes, B. R. Furevik and J-R Bidlo, 2010, A high-resolution hindcast of wind and waves for The North Sea, The Norwegian Sea and The Barents Sea. J. Geophys. Res., 116. doi:10.1029/2010JC006402. Themessl M. J., A. Gobiet and A. Leuprecht, 2012, Empirical-statistical downscaling and error correction of regional climate models and its imipact on the climate change signal. Climatic Change 112: 449-468, DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0224-4. Van der Linden P. and J.F.B. Mitchell, 2009, ENSEMBLES: Climate Change and its Impacts_ Summary and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter EX1 3PB, UK.

Software Uncertainty in Integrated Environmental Modelling: the role of Semantics and Open Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Rigo, Daniele

2013-04-01

Computational aspects increasingly shape environmental sciences [1]. Actually, transdisciplinary modelling of complex and uncertain environmental systems is challenging computational science (CS) and also the science-policy interface [2-7]. Large spatial-scale problems falling within this category - i.e. wide-scale transdisciplinary modelling for environment (WSTMe) [8-10] - often deal with factors (a) for which deep-uncertainty [2,11-13] may prevent usual statistical analysis of modelled quantities and need different ways for providing policy-making with science-based support. Here, practical recommendations are proposed for tempering a peculiar - not infrequently underestimated - source of uncertainty. Software errors in complex WSTMe may subtly affect the outcomes with possible consequences even on collective environmental decision-making. Semantic transparency in CS [2,8,10,14,15] and free software [16,17] are discussed as possible mitigations (b) . Software uncertainty, black-boxes and free software. Integrated natural resources modelling and management (INRMM) [29] frequently exploits chains of nontrivial data-transformation models (D- TM), each of them affected by uncertainties and errors. Those D-TM chains may be packaged as monolithic specialized models, maybe only accessible as black-box executables (if accessible at all) [50]. For end-users, black-boxes merely transform inputs in the final outputs, relying on classical peer-reviewed publications for describing the internal mechanism. While software tautologically plays a vital role in CS, it is often neglected in favour of more theoretical aspects. This paradox has been provocatively described as "the invisibility of software in published science. Almost all published papers required some coding, but almost none mention software, let alone include or link to source code" [51]. Recently, this primacy of theory over reality [52-54] has been challenged by new emerging hybrid approaches [55] and by the growing debate on open science and scientific knowledge freedom [2,56-59]. In particular, the role of free software has been underlined within the paradigm of reproducible research [50,58-60]. In the spectrum of reproducibility, the free availability of the source code is emphasized [58] as the first step from non-reproducible research (only based on classic peer-reviewed publications) toward reproducibility. Applying this paradigm to WSTMe, an alternative strategy to black-boxes would suggest exposing not only final outputs but also key intermediate layers of data and information along with the corresponding free software D- TM modules. A concise, semantically-enhanced modularization [14,15] may help not only to see the code (as a very basic prerequisite for semantic transparency) but also to understand - and correct - it [61]. Semantically-enhanced, concise modularization is e.g. supported by semantic array programming (SemAP) [14,15] and its extension to geospatial problems [8,10]. Some WSTMe may surely be classified in the subset of software systems which "are growing well past the ability of a small group of people to completely understand the content", while "data from these systems are often used for critical decision making" [52]. In this context, the further uncertainty arising from the unpredicted "(not to say unpredictable)" [53] behaviour of software errors propagation in WSTMe should be explicitly considered as software uncertainty [62,63]. Thedata and informationflow ofa black- box D-TM isoften a(hidden)compositionofD-TM modules: Semantics and design diversity. Silent faults [64] are a critical class of software errors altering computation output without evident symptoms - such as computation premature interruption (exceptions, error messages, ...), obviously unrealistic results or computation patterns (e.g. noticeably shorter/longer or endless computations). As it has been underlined, "many scientific results are corrupted, perhaps fatally so, by undiscovered mistakes in the software used to calculate and present those results" [65]. Despite the ubiquity of software errors [62-70], the structural role of scientific software uncertainty seems dramatically underestimated [2,53]. Semantic D- TM modularization might help to catch at least a subset of silent faults, when misusing intermediate data outside the expected semantic context of a given D- TM module (b). Where the complexity and scale of WSTMe may lead unavoidable software-uncertainty to induce or worsen deep-uncertainty [2], techniques such as ensemble modelling may be recommendable [11-13]. Adapting those techniques for glancing at the software-uncertainty of a given WSTMe would imply availability of multiple instances (implementations) of the same abstract WSTMe. Independently re-implementing the same WSTMe (design diversity [71]) might of course be extremely expensive. However, partly independent re-implementations of critical D- TM modules may be more affordable and examples of comparison between supposedly equivalent D- TM algorithms seem to corroborate the interest of this research option [59,72,51]. References Casagrandi, R., Guariso, G., 2009. Impact of ICT in environmental sciences: A citation analysis 1990-2007. Environmental Modelling & Software 24 (7), 865-871. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.11.013 de Rigo, D., 2013. Behind the horizon of reproducible integrated environmental modelling at European scale: ethics and practice of scientific knowledge freedom. F1000 Research. To appear as discussion paper Gomes, C. P., 2009. Computational sustainability: Computational methods for a sustainable environment, economy, and society. The Bridge 39 (4), 5-13. http://www.nae.edu/File.aspx?id=17673 Easterbrook, S. M., Johns, T. C., 2009. Engineering the software for understanding climate change. Computing in Science & Engineering 11 (6), 65-74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/MCSE.2009.193 Hamarat, C., Kwakkel, J. H., Pruyt, E., 2012. Adaptive robust design under deep uncertainty. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.004 Bankes, S. C., 2002. Tools and techniques for developing policies for complex and uncertain systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 99 (Suppl 3), 7263-7266. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.092081399 Kandlikar, M., Risbey, J., Dessai, S., 2005. Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 337 (4), 443-455. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2004.10.010 de Rigo, D., Corti, P., Caudullo, G., McInerney, D., Di Leo, M., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2013. Toward Open Science at the European scale: Geospatial Semantic Array Programming for Integrated Environmental Modelling. Geophysical Research Abstracts 15, EGU General Assembly 2013 Rodriguez Aseretto, D., Di Leo, M., de Rigo, D., Corti, P., McInerney, D., Camia, A., San Miguel-Ayanz, J., 2013. Free and Open Source Software underpinning the European Forest Data Centre. Geophysical Research Abstracts 15, EGU General Assembly 2013 de Rigo, D., Corti, P., Caudullo, G., McInerney, D., Di Leo, M., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., (exp. 2013). Supporting Environmental Modelling and Science-Policy Interface at European Scale with Geospatial Semantic Array Programming. In prep. Lempert, R. J., 2002. A new decision sciences for complex systems. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 99 (Suppl 3), 7309-7313. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.082081699 Kandlikar, M., Risbey, J., Dessai, S., 2005. Representing and communicating deep uncertainty in climate-change assessments. Comptes Rendus Geoscience 337 (4), 443-455. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crte.2004.10.010 Gober, P., Kirkwood, C. W., 2010. Vulnerability assessment of climate-induced water shortage in Phoenix. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107 (50), 21295-21299. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0911113107 de Rigo, D., 2012. Semantic Array Programming for Environmental Modelling: Application of the Mastrave library. In: Seppelt, R., Voinov, A. A., Lange, S., Bankamp, D. (Eds.), International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) 2012 International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. Managing Resources of a Limited Planet: Pathways and Visions under Uncertainty, Sixth Biennial Meeting. pp. 1167-1176. http://www.iemss.org/iemss2012/proceedings/D3_1_0715_deRigo.pdf de Rigo, D., 2012. Semantic Array Programming with Mastrave - Introduction to Semantic Computational Modelling. http://mastrave.org/doc/MTV-1.012-1 Free Software Foundation, 2012. What is free software? http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/free-sw.html (revision 1.118 archived at http://www.webcitation.org/6DXqCFAN3 ) Stallman, R. M., 2009. Viewpoint: Why "open source" misses the point of free software. Communications of the ACM 52 (6), 31-33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/1516046.1516058 (free access version: http://www.gnu.org/philosophy/open-source-misses-the-point.html ) Lempert, R., Schlesinger, M. E., Jul. 2001. Climate-change strategy needs to be robust. Nature 412 (6845), 375. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/35086617 Shell, K. M., Nov. 2012. Constraining cloud feedbacks. Science 338 (6108), 755-756. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1231083 van der Sluijs, J. P., 2012. Uncertainty and dissent in climate risk assessment: A Post-Normal perspective. Nature and Culture 7 (2), 174-195. http://dx.doi.org/10.3167/nc.2012.070204 Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., Schellnhuber, H. J., Feb. 2008. Tipping elements in the earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (6), 1786-1793. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105 Hastings, A., Wysham, D. B., Apr. 2010. Regime shifts in ecological systems can occur with no warning. Ecology Letters 13 (4), 464-472. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01439.x Barnosky, A. D., Hadly, E. A., Bascompte, J., Berlow, E. L., Brown, J. H., Fortelius, M., Getz, W. M., Harte, J., Hastings, A., Marquet, P. A., Martinez, N. D., Mooers, A., Roopnarine, P., Vermeij, G., Williams, J. W., Gillespie, R., Kitzes, J., Marshall, C., Matzke, N., Mindell, D. P., Revilla, E., Smith, A. B., Jun. 2012. Approaching a state shift in earth/'s biosphere. Nature 486 (7401), 52-58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nature11018 Lenton, T. M., Held, H., Kriegler, E., Hall, J. W., Lucht, W., Rahmstorf, S., Schellnhuber, H. J., Feb. 2008. Tipping elements in the earth's climate system. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105 (6), 1786-1793. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0705414105 Milly, P. C. D., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., Hirsch, R. M., Kundzewicz, Z. W., Lettenmaier, D. P., Stouffer, R. J., 2008. Stationarity is dead: Whither water management? Science 319 (5863), 573-574. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1151915 Sloan, S., Pelletier, J., 2012. How accurately may we project tropical forest-cover change? a validation of a forward-looking baseline for REDD. Global Environmental Change 22 (2), 440-453. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.02.001 Nabuurs, G. J., van Putten, B., Knippers, T. S., Mohren, G. M. J., 2008. Comparison of uncertainties in carbon sequestration estimates for a tropical and a temperate forest. Forest Ecology and Management 256 (3), 237-245. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2008.04.010 Green, D. G., Sadedin, S., Jun. 2005. Interactions matter-complexity in landscapes and ecosystems. Ecological Complexity 2 (2), 117-130. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecocom.2004.11.006 de Rigo, D. 2012. Integrated Natural Resources Modelling and Management: minimal redefinition of a known challenge for environmental modelling. Excerpt from the Call for a shared research agenda toward scientific knowledge freedom, Maieutike Research Initiative. http://www.citeulike.org/groupfunc/15400/home Baker, R., Koch, F., Kriticos, D., Rafoss, T., Venette, R., van der Werf, W. (Eds.), 2012. Advancing risk assessment models for invasive alien species in the food chain: contending with climate change, economics and uncertainty. Vol. 7 of Bioforsk FOKUS. Bioforsk, Frederik A. Dahls vei 20, 1432 Ås, Norway. http://www.pestrisk.org/2012/BioforskFOKUS7-10_IPRMW-VI.pdf de Rigo, D., Caudullo, G., San-Miguel-Ayanz, J., Stancanelli, G., 2012. Mapping European forest tree species distribution to support pest risk assessment. In: Baker, R., Koch, F., Kriticos, D., Rafoss, T., Venette, R., van der Werf, W. (Eds.), Advancing risk assessment models for invasive alien species in the food chain: contending with climate change, economics and uncertainty. Vol. 7 of Bioforsk FOKUS. Bioforsk, Frederik A. Dahls vei 20, 1432 Ås, Norway. http://www.pestrisk.org/2012/BioforskFOKUS7-10_IPRMW-VI.pdf Thompson, I. D., of the Convention on Biological Diversity, S., 2009. Forest resilience, biodiversity, and climate change : a synthesis of the biodiversity/resilience/stability relationship in forest ecosystems. Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. ISBN: 9292251376 Center for International Forestry Research., FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific, 2005. Forests and floods: drowning in fiction or thriving on facts? Center for International Forestry Research; Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific. http://www.worldcat.org/isbn/9793361646

The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project H-Series climate data record product

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, Alisa H.; Knapp, Kenneth R.; Inamdar, Anand; Hankins, William; Rossow, William B.

2018-03-01

This paper describes the new global long-term International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) H-series climate data record (CDR). The H-series data contain a suite of level 2 and 3 products for monitoring the distribution and variation of cloud and surface properties to better understand the effects of clouds on climate, the radiation budget, and the global hydrologic cycle. This product is currently available for public use and is derived from both geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite imaging radiometers with common visible and infrared (IR) channels. The H-series data currently span July 1983 to December 2009 with plans for continued production to extend the record to the present with regular updates. The H-series data are the longest combined geostationary and polar orbiter satellite-based CDR of cloud properties. Access to the data is provided in network common data form (netCDF) and archived by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) under the satellite Climate Data Record Program (https://doi.org/10.7289/V5QZ281S). The basic characteristics, history, and evolution of the dataset are presented herein with particular emphasis on and discussion of product changes between the H-series and the widely used predecessor D-series product which also spans from July 1983 through December 2009. Key refinements included in the ISCCP H-series CDR are based on improved quality control measures, modified ancillary inputs, higher spatial resolution input and output products, calibration refinements, and updated documentation and metadata to bring the H-series product into compliance with existing standards for climate data records.

Climate Change and Future Pollen Allergy in Europe.

PubMed

Lake, Iain R; Jones, Natalia R; Agnew, Maureen; Goodess, Clare M; Giorgi, Filippo; Hamaoui-Laguel, Lynda; Semenov, Mikhail A; Solomon, Fabien; Storkey, Jonathan; Vautard, Robert; Epstein, Michelle M

2017-03-01

Globally, pollen allergy is a major public health problem, but a fundamental unknown is the likely impact of climate change. To our knowledge, this is the first study to quantify the consequences of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans. We produced quantitative estimates of the potential impact of climate change upon pollen allergy in humans, focusing upon common ragweed ( Ambrosia artemisiifolia ) in Europe. A process-based model estimated the change in ragweed's range under climate change. A second model simulated current and future ragweed pollen levels. These findings were translated into health burdens using a dose-response curve generated from a systematic review and from current and future population data. Models considered two different suites of regional climate/pollen models, two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios [Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5], and three different plant invasion scenarios. Our primary estimates indicated that sensitization to ragweed will more than double in Europe, from 33 to 77 million people, by 2041-2060. According to our projections, sensitization will increase in countries with an existing ragweed problem (e.g., Hungary, the Balkans), but the greatest proportional increases will occur where sensitization is uncommon (e.g., Germany, Poland, France). Higher pollen concentrations and a longer pollen season may also increase the severity of symptoms. Our model projections were driven predominantly by changes in climate (66%) but were also influenced by current trends in the spread of this invasive plant species. Assumptions about the rate at which ragweed spreads throughout Europe had a large influence upon the results. Our quantitative estimates indicate that ragweed pollen allergy will become a common health problem across Europe, expanding into areas where it is currently uncommon. Control of ragweed spread may be an important adaptation strategy in response to climate change. Citation: Lake IR, Jones NR, Agnew M, Goodess CM, Giorgi F, Hamaoui-Laguel L, Semenov MA, Solomon F, Storkey J, Vautard R, Epstein MM. 2017. Climate change and future pollen allergy in Europe. Environ Health Perspect 125:385-391; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP173.

CHASE-PL Climate Projection dataset over Poland - bias adjustment of EURO-CORDEX simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mezghani, Abdelkader; Dobler, Andreas; Haugen, Jan Erik; Benestad, Rasmus E.; Parding, Kajsa M.; Piniewski, Mikołaj; Kardel, Ignacy; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.

2017-11-01

The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Climate Projections - Gridded Daily Precipitation and Temperature dataset 5 km (CPLCP-GDPT5) consists of projected daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals of nine EURO-CORDEX regional climate model outputs bias corrected and downscaled to a 5 km × 5 km grid. Simulations of one historical period (1971-2000) and two future horizons (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) assuming two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were produced. We used the quantile mapping method and corrected any systematic seasonal bias in these simulations before assessing the changes in annual and seasonal means of precipitation and temperature over Poland. Projected changes estimated from the multi-model ensemble mean showed that annual means of temperature are expected to increase steadily by 1 °C until 2021-2050 and by 2 °C until 2071-2100 assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario, this can reach up to almost 4 °C by 2071-2100. Similarly to temperature, projected changes in regional annual means of precipitation are expected to increase by 6 to 10 % and by 8 to 16 % for the two future horizons and RCPs, respectively. Similarly, individual model simulations also exhibited warmer and wetter conditions on an annual scale, showing an intensification of the magnitude of the change at the end of the 21st century. The same applied for projected changes in seasonal means of temperature showing a higher winter warming rate by up to 0.5 °C compared to the other seasons. However, projected changes in seasonal means of precipitation by the individual models largely differ and are sometimes inconsistent, exhibiting spatial variations which depend on the selected season, location, future horizon, and RCP. The overall range of the 90 % confidence interval predicted by the ensemble of multi-model simulations was found to likely vary between -7 % (projected for summer assuming the RCP4.5 emission scenario) and +40 % (projected for winter assuming the RCP8.5 emission scenario) by the end of the 21st century. Finally, this high-resolution bias-corrected product can serve as a basis for climate change impact and adaptation studies for many sectors over Poland. The CPLCP-GDPT5 dataset is publicly available at http://dx.doi.org/10.4121/uuid:e940ec1a-71a0-449e-bbe3-29217f2ba31d.

Biophysical landscape interactions: Bridging disciplines and scale with connectivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Ploeg, Martine; Baartman, Jantiene; Robinson, David

2017-04-01

The combination of climate change, population growth and soil threats, such as carbon loss, biodiversity decline or erosion amongst others , increasingly confront the global community [1]. One of the major challenges in studying processes involved in soil threats, landscape resilience, ecosystem stability, sustainable land management and the economic consequences, is that it is an interdisciplinary field [2], that needs less stringent scientific disciplinary boundaries [3]. As a result of disciplinary focus, ambiguity may arise on the understanding of landscape interactions, and this is especially true in the interaction between a landscape's physical and biological processes [4]. Another important aspect in biophysical landscape interactions are the differences in scale related to the various processes that play a role in these systems. While scaling of environmental processes is possible, as long as the phenomena at hand can be described by the same set of differential equations [5], biophysical landscape interactions pose problems for scaling approaches. Landscape position and land use impact the coupled processes in soil and vegetation. Differences in micro-behavior, driven by the interplay of heterogeneous soil and vegetation dynamics, impact emergent characteristics across a landscape. A complicating factor is the response of vegetation to changing environmental conditions, including a possible and often unknown time-lag. By altering soil conditions, plants may leave an imprint in the landscape that remains even after vegetation has disappeared due to e.g. drought, wildfire or overgrazing. Plants also respond biochemically to their environment, while the models used for hydrology are often based on physical interactions. Gene-expression and genotype adaptation may further complicate our modelling efforts in for example climate change impacts. What are we missing by not having more connectivity in our thinking, and what we can solve? We think that integrated concepts of biophysical landscape interactions are needed to evaluate soil water availability in relation to the stability of natural vegetation, especially in the perspective of soil threats, population growth, climate change, and global water scarcity. An integrated concept can only be established by bridging the gap between several disciplines, but needs to be appealing to those disciplines at the same time. As evidence suggests interdisciplinary work is more challenging to get funded [6]. The key aspect of the connectivity concept is that it can create pathways for feedbacks which are so often missing in soil and water models. Connectivity could thus play an important role in bridging disciplines and scales. [1] Schwilch G, Bernet L. Fleskens L, Giannakis E, Leventon J, Marañón T, Mills J, Short C, Stolte J, van Delden H, Verzandvoort S. 2016. Operationalizing ecosystem services for the mitigation of soil threats: A proposed framework. Ecological Indicators 67: 586-597,doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.03.016 [2] Pelletier JD, DeLong SB, Orem CA, Becerra P, Compton K, Gressett K, Lyons-Baral J, McGuire LA, Molaro JL, Spinler JCCF. 2012. How do vegetation bands form in dry lands? Insights from numerical modeling and field studies in southern Nevada, USA. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 117: F04026,doi:10.1029/2012JF002465 [3] Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter SR, Alberti M, Folke C, Moran E, ..., Ostrom E. 2007. Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 317.5844: 1513-1516,doi:10.1126/science.1144004 [4] Cook BJ, Hauer FR. 2007. Effects of hydrologic connectivity on water chemistry, soils, and vegetation structure and function in an intermontane depressional wetland landscape. Wetlands 27.3: 719-738,doi:10.1672/0277-5212(2007)27 [5] Roth K. 2008. Scaling of water flow through porous media and soils. European journal of soil science, 59(1), 125-130, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2389.2007.00986.x [6] Bromham, L, Dinnage R, Hua X. 2016. Interdisciplinary research has consistently lower funding success. Nature 534: 684-687,doi:10.1038/nature18315

Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events.

PubMed

Stott, Peter A; Christidis, Nikolaos; Otto, Friederike E L; Sun, Ying; Vanderlinden, Jean-Paul; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Vautard, Robert; von Storch, Hans; Walton, Peter; Yiou, Pascal; Zwiers, Francis W

2016-01-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:23-41. doi: 10.1002/wcc.380 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

Methodology for qualitative uncertainty assessment of climate impact indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Rechid, Diana; Hänsler, Andreas; Pfeifer, Susanne; Roth, Ellinor; Jacob, Daniela

2016-04-01

The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing an integrated platform of climate data services to provide a single point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change and climate change impacts. In this project, the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) has been in charge of the development of a methodology on how to assess the uncertainties related to climate impact indicators. Existing climate data portals mainly treat the uncertainties in two ways: Either they provide generic guidance and/or express with statistical measures the quantifiable fraction of the uncertainty. However, none of the climate data portals give the users a qualitative guidance how confident they can be in the validity of the displayed data. The need for such guidance was identified in CLIPC user consultations. Therefore, we aim to provide an uncertainty assessment that provides the users with climate impact indicator-specific guidance on the degree to which they can trust the outcome. We will present an approach that provides information on the importance of different sources of uncertainties associated with a specific climate impact indicator and how these sources affect the overall 'degree of confidence' of this respective indicator. To meet users requirements in the effective communication of uncertainties, their feedback has been involved during the development process of the methodology. Assessing and visualising the quantitative component of uncertainty is part of the qualitative guidance. As visual analysis method, we apply the Climate Signal Maps (Pfeifer et al. 2015), which highlight only those areas with robust climate change signals. Here, robustness is defined as a combination of model agreement and the significance of the individual model projections. Reference Pfeifer, S., Bülow, K., Gobiet, A., Hänsler, A., Mudelsee, M., Otto, J., Rechid, D., Teichmann, C. and Jacob, D.: Robustness of Ensemble Climate Projections Analyzed with Climate Signal Maps: Seasonal and Extreme Precipitation for Germany, Atmosphere (Basel)., 6(5), 677-698, doi:10.3390/atmos6050677, 2015.

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Creating a Collaborative Conservation Vision in the Face of Climate Change Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athearn, N.; Schlafmann, D.

2015-12-01

The 22 Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) form a "network of networks," each defined by the characteristics of its ecoregion and its unique community of conservation managers, practitioners, and scientists. As self-directed partnerships, LCCs are strongly influenced not only by the landscape but by the evolving cultures and values that define the multi-faceted relationships between people and place. LCCs maintain an ecologically connected network across these diverse landscapes by transcending borders and leveraging resources. Natural resource managers are challenged to make decisions in the face of multiple uncertainties, and several partners across the network have recognized that climate change is one important uncertainty that spans boundaries - both across the conservation community and beyond. The impacts of climate change across the LCC Network are likely to be as diverse as the network itself - manifesting as, for example, sea level rise, ocean acidification, loss of sea ice, and shifts in climate patterns and timing - but synergies are being leveraged within and between LCCs and national climate-focused programs to systematically address the needs of the network to support a collaborative conservation vision that addresses multiple landscape-scale stressors in the face of climate uncertainties. This vision is being achieved by leveraging the convening power of the LCCs and collaborating with DOI Climate Science Centers and others. Selected case studies will demonstrate how the network finds strength in its differences, but also reveals powerful collaborative opportunities through integrated science, shared conservation strategies, and strategic approaches for translating targeted science to conservation action. These examples exemplify past successes as well as ongoing efforts as the network continues to bring about effective application of climate science to achieve conservation outcomes across the LCC Network in an uncertain future climate.

Multiproxy evidence of Late Pleistocene environmental changes in the loess-paleosol sequence of Bůhzdař (Czech Republic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flašarová, Kristýna; Vysloužilová, Barbora; Juřičková, Lucie; Šefrna, Luděk; Verecchia, Eric

2016-04-01

Loess-paleosol sequences preserve information that can be used to reconstruct paleoenvironement, specifically the climatic conditions and the vegetation present at the time of their formation, or determine their age. A dense network of reliably analyzed sequences from different geographic locations is crucial for representation of ecological and climatic trends during the Pleistocene (Frechen, 2011). The aim of this study is to fill the gap in the geographical distribution of well described loess-paleosol sequences in Central Europe. Therefore, it focuses on a loess-paleosol sequence in Bůhzdař, situated 9 km NW of Prague, Czech Republic. This profile was last studied in 1952 by naturalist Vojen Ložek. This study uses a number of analyses in order to get a multi-proxy record of local paleoenvironmental changes archived in a sequence of alternating loess sediments and paleosols in Bůhzař. Geochemical approaches are combined with paleozoology to define climatic conditions at the time of formation of the strata. Oxygen isotope 18O values of pedogenic carbonates can be used as a proxy of climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation, whereas carbon isotope values can be used to reconstruct changes in the atmospheric CO2 concentration (Obreht et al. 2013), perhaps also the relative proportions of plants using C3 and C4 metabolic pathways (Kaakinen et al., 2006). Findings of fossil malacofauna, which occupied specific ecological niches, can complement these results. The Bůhzdař locality is exceptional in terms of density of pedogenic carbonates, such as loess dolls, pseudomycelia and marl concretions. These concretions are, in some parts, more compact and form a compact layer. Analysis of pedogenic processes could bring new clues regarding the understanding of the way various forms of carbonates were formed. The analyses are in progress and the first results will be presented during an EGU session in April 2016. References Frechen, M. ed. (2011). Loess in Europe. Eiszeitalter und Gegenwart, Quaternary Science Journal, 60 (1) http://doi.org/10.3285/eg.60.1.00 Kaakinen, A., Sonninen, E., & Lunkka, J. P. (2006). Stable isotope record in paleosol carbonates from the Chinese Loess Plateau: Implications for late Neogene paleoclimate and paleovegetation. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 237 (2-4), 359-369. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2005.12.011 Ložek, V. (1952) Zpráva o paleontologickém výzkumu cihelny v Zájezdu u Buštěhradu. Anthropozoikum, III, 135-138. Obreht, I., Buggle, B., Catto, N., Markovič, S. B., Bösel, S., Vandenberghe, D. A. G., … Jović, G. (2014). The Late Pleistocene Belotinac section (southern Serbia) at the southern limit of the European loess belt: Environmental and climate reconstruction using grain size and stable C and N isotopes. Quaternary International, 334-335, 10-19. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2013.05.037

Quantifying loss and damage from anthropogenic climate change - Bridging the gap between two research communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, F. E. L.

2015-12-01

The science of attribution of meteorological events to anthropogenic causes has for the first time been included in the latest assessment of the Physical Science Basis of the Climate, (WGI), of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report AR5 (Stocker et al., 2013). At the same time there is a very rapidly growing body of literature on climate change and its impact on economy, society and environment but apart from very few exemptions no link is made to the causes of these changes. Observed changes in hydrological variables, agriculture, biodiversity and the built environment have been attributed to a changing climate, whether these changes are the result of natural variability or external forcings (Cramer et al., 2014). While the research community represented in WGI assesses whether, and to what extent, recent extreme weather events can be attributed to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols, the research community of impact specialists asks how climatic changes lead to different impacts largely independent of the causes of such changes. This distinction becomes potentially very relevant with respect to the 2013 established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change in developing countries under the UNFCCC climate change negotiations. Currently there is no discussion what consists of loss and damage and the reasons for this inexistence of a definition are not primarily scientific but political however, the absence of a definition could potentially lead to absurd consequences if funds in the context of loss and damage would be redistributed, as e.g. suggested, for all low risk high impact events. Here we present the implications of discussed definitions of loss and damage (Huggel et al. 2015) and how scientific evidence could be included. Cramer et al. (2014) Detection and Attribution of Observed Impacts. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability Contribution of WG 2 to AR5 of the IPCC. Huggel, C., Stone, D., Eicken, H., & Hansen, G. (2015). Potential and limitations of the attribution of climate change impacts for informing loss and damage discussions and policies. Clim. Change, doi: 10.1007/s10584-015-1441-z. Stocker et al. (eds.) (2013) The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press.

Expansion of the Lyme Disease Vector Ixodes Scapularis in Canada Inferred from CMIP5 Climate Projections

PubMed Central

McPherson, Michelle; García-García, Almudena; Cuesta-Valero, Francisco José; Hansen-Ketchum, Patti; MacDougall, Donna; Ogden, Nicholas Hume

2017-01-01

Background: A number of studies have assessed possible climate change impacts on the Lyme disease vector, Ixodes scapularis. However, most have used surface air temperature from only one climate model simulation and/or one emission scenario, representing only one possible climate future. Objectives: We quantified effects of different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and climate model outputs on the projected future changes in the basic reproduction number (R0) of I. scapularis to explore uncertainties in future R0 estimates. Methods: We used surface air temperature generated by a complete set of General Circulation Models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) to hindcast historical (1971–2000), and to forecast future effects of climate change on the R0 of I. scapularis for the periods 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. Results: Increases in the multimodel mean R0 values estimated for both future periods, relative to 1971–2000, were statistically significant under all RCP scenarios for all of Nova Scotia, areas of New Brunswick and Quebec, Ontario south of 47°N, and Manitoba south of 52°N. When comparing RCP scenarios, only the estimated R0 mean values between RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 showed statistically significant differences for any future time period. Conclusion: Our results highlight the potential for climate change to have an effect on future Lyme disease risk in Canada even if the Paris Agreement’s goal to keep global warming below 2°C is achieved, although mitigation reducing emissions from RCP8.5 levels to those of RCP6.0 or less would be expected to slow tick invasion after the 2030s. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP57 PMID:28599266

Spatial performance of RegEM climate field reconstruction techniques in a realistic pseudoproxy context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Guillot, D.

2011-12-01

Several methods of climate field reconstructions (CFRs) have been introduced in the past few years to estimate past climate variability from proxy data over the Common Era. The pseudoproxy framework has become a tool of choice for assessing the relative merits of such methods. Here we compare four variants of the RegEM algorithm [Schneider, 2001], using a pseudoproxy network mimicking the key spatio-temporal characteristics of the network of Mann et al., 2008 (hereinafter M08); the methods are (1) RegEM TTLS (2) RegEM iTTLS (3) GraphEM and (4) RegEM iRIDGE. To ensure continuity with previous work [Smerdon et al. 2011], pseudoproxy series are designed as a white-noise degraded version of the simulated temperature field [Amman et al. 2007] over 850-1980 C.E. colocated with 1138 M08 proxies. We use signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs) of: ∞ (no noise), 1.0, 0.5 and 0.25, to simulate differences in proxy quality. Two novelties in pseudoproxy design are introduced here: (1) the decrease in proxy availability over time follows that found in M08, (2) a realistic case where the SNR is empirically derived from correlations between each M08 proxy and the HadCRUT3v temperature field. It is found that this realistic SNR is clustered around 0.3, but ranges from 0.1 to 0.8. Verification statistics such as RE, CE, r2, bias, standard deviation ratio and RMSE are presented for each method at each SNR level. The results show that all methods perform relatively well at SNR levels higher than 0.5, but display drastically different performances at lower SNR levels. Compared with results using pseudoproxy network of Mann et al., 1998, (hereinafter MBH98), the reconstruction skill of the M08 network is relatively improved, in line with the findings of Smerdon et al., 2011. Overall, we find that GraphEM and iTTLS tend to produce more robust estimates of the temperature field at low SNR levels than other schemes, while preserving a higher amount of variance in the target field. Ammann, C. M., F. Joos, D. S. Schimel, B. L. Otto-Bliesner, and R. A. Tomas (2007), Solar influence on climate during the past millennium: Results from transient simulations with the NCAR Climate System Model, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 104, 3713-3718, doi:10.1073/pnas.0605064103. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bradley, and M. K. Hughes (1998), Global-scale temperaturepatterns and climate forcing over the past six centuries, Nature, 392, 779-787, doi:10.1038/33859. Mann, M. E., S. Rutherford, E. Wahl, and C. Ammann (2007), Robustness of proxy-based climate field reconstruction methods, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D12109, doi:10.1029/2006JD008272. Mann, M. E., et al. (2008), Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia, Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U. S. A., 105, 13,252-13,257, doi:10.1073/pnas.0805721105. Schneider, T. (2001), Analysis of incomplete climate data: Estimation of mean values and covariance matrices and imputation of missing values, J. Clim., 14, 853-871, doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)014<0853: AOICDE>2.0.CO;2. Smerdon, J. E., A. Kaplan, E. Zorita, J. F. González-Rouco, and M. N. Evans (2011), Spatial performance of four climate field reconstruction methods targeting the Common Era, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L11705, doi:10.1029/2011GL047372.

Towards a Multi-scale Montecarlo Climate Emulator for Coastal Flooding and Long-Term Coastal Change Modeling: The Beautiful Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rueda, A.; Alvarez Antolinez, J. A.; Hegermiller, C.; Serafin, K.; Anderson, D. L.; Ruggiero, P.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Vitousek, S.; Camus, P.; Tomas, A.; Gonzalez, M.; Mendez, F. J.

2016-02-01

Long-term coastal evolution and coastal flooding hazards are the result of the non-linear interaction of multiple oceanographic, hydrological, geological and meteorological forcings (e.g., astronomical tide, monthly mean sea level, large-scale storm surge, dynamic wave set-up, shoreline evolution, backshore erosion). Additionally, interannual variability and trends in storminess and sea level rise are climate drivers that must be considered. Moreover, the chronology of the hydraulic boundary conditions plays an important role since a collection of consecutive minor storm events can have more impact than the 100-yr return level event. Therefore, proper modeling of shoreline erosion, beach recovery and coastal flooding should consider the sequence of storms, the multivariate nature of the hydrodynamic forcings, and the different time scales of interest (seasonality, interannual and decadal variability). To address this `beautiful problem', we propose a hybrid approach that combines: (a) numerical hydrodynamic and morphodynamic models (SWAN for wave transformation, a shoreline change model, X-Beach for modeling infragravity waves and erosion of the backshore during extreme events and RFSM-EDA (Jamieson et al, 2012) for high resolution flooding of the coastal hinterland); (b) long-term data bases (observational and hindcast) of sea state parameters, astronomical tides and non-tidal residuals; and (c) statistical downscaling techniques, non-linear data mining, and extreme value models. The statistical downscaling approaches for multivariate variables are based on circulation patterns (Espejo et al., 2014), the chronology of the circulation patterns (Guanche et al, 2013) and the event hydrographs of multivariate extremes, resulting in a time-dependent climate emulator of hydraulic boundary conditions for coupled simulations of the coastal change and flooding models. ReferencesEspejo et al (2014) Spectral ocean wave climate variability based on circulation patterns, J Phys Oc, doi: 10.1175/JPO-D-13-0276.1 Guanche et al (2013) Autoregressive logistic regression applied to atmospheric circulation patterns, Clim Dyn, doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1690-3 Jamieson et al (2012) A highly efficient 2D flood model with sub-element topography, Proc. Of the Inst Civil Eng., 165(10), 581-595

Watershed health assessment to monitor land degradation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamidreza Sadeghi, Seyed; Hazbavi, Zeinab; Cerdà, Artemi

2017-04-01

Land degradation is a worldwide issue that affects the Planet and the fate of the humankind (Cerdà et al., 2009; Choudhury et al., 2016; Fernández et al., 2016; Ferreira et al., 2016). Several processes affect the sustainability of the ecosystems, from soil erosion to soil compation, deforestation, Climate Change or water, soil and air pollution (Sadeghi et al., 2015a; 2015b; Gómez-Acanta et al., 2016; Mengistu et al., 2016; Mukai, 2016). Several ecosystem theories have been presented in the scientific literatures to monitor land degradation (Cerdà et al., 2016; Davudirad et al., 2016; Fava et al., 2016; Mahyou et al., 2016; Soulard et al., 2016). Besides the scientific tasks of improving the indication, the conviction of the potential users to change their concepts toward a higher consideration of ecosystem attributes, and toward a fruitful application of the health or integrity concepts, will be a main task of future activities. Reliability, resilience and vulnerability (R-R-V) indicators are often used in combination for quantifying risk and decision making in many systems. However, the use of hydrological series data for R-R-V computations has been rather limited. Toward this, the overall objective of this paper is to conduct a risk assessment analysis on stream flow discharge from Shazand Watershed located in the south western of Markazi Province in Iran for the period of 1972-2014 using R-R-V indicators. Based on the R-R-V analysis conducted in this study, the stream flow discharge of the study region followed a cyclic pattern with a decreasing trend. The results further showed a decreasing trend in reliability and resilience and an increasing trend in vulnerability in the Shazand Watershed. It may be concluded that the Shazand Watershed was in overall in unhealthy condition from view of stream flow discharge. Acknowledgements This research was funded by the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant no. 603498 (RECARE Project). References Cerdà, A., A. G. Morera, and M. B. Bodí. 2009. Soil and Water Losses from New Citrus Orchards Growing on Sloped Soils in the Western Mediterranean Basin. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 34 (13): 1822-1830. doi:10.1002/esp.1889. Cerdà, A., González-Pelayo, O., Giménez-Morera, A., Jordán, A., Pereira, P., Novara, A., Brevik, E.C., Prosdocimi, M., Mahmoodabadi, M., Keesstra, S., García Orenes, F., Ritsema, C., 2016. The use of barley straw residues to avoid high erosion and runoff rates on persimmon plantations in Eastern Spain under low frequency - high magnitude simulated rainfall events. Soil Res, 54, 2, 154-165 DOI: 10.1071/SR15092 Choudhury, B. U., A. R. Fiyaz, K. P. Mohapatra, and S. Ngachan. 2016. Impact of Land Uses, Agrophysical Variables and Altitudinal Gradient on Soil Organic Carbon Concentration of North-Eastern Himalayan Region of India. Land Degradation and Development 27 (4): 1163-1174. doi:10.1002/ldr.2338. Davudirad, A. A., S. H. Sadeghi, and A. Sadoddin. 2016. The Impact of Development Plans on Hydrological Changes in the Shazand Watershed, Iran. Land Degradation and Development 27 (4): 1236-1244. doi:10.1002/ldr.2523. Fava, F., G. Pulighe, and A. T. Monteiro. 2016. Mapping Changes in Land Cover Composition and Pattern for Comparing Mediterranean Rangeland Restoration Alternatives. Land Degradation and Development 27 (3): 671-681. doi:10.1002/ldr.2456. Fernández-Romero, M. L., B. Lozano-García, L. Parras-Alcántara, C. D. Collins, and J. M. Clark. 2016. Effects of Land Management on Different Forms of Soil Carbon in Olive Groves in Mediterranean Areas. Land Degradation and Development 27 (4): 1186-1195. doi:10.1002/ldr.2327. Ferreira, A. C. C., L. F. C. Leite, A. S. F. de Araújo, and N. Eisenhauer. 2016. Land-use Type Effects on Soil Organic Carbon and Microbial Properties in a Semi-Arid Region of Northeast Brazil. Land Degradation and Development 27 (2): 171-178. doi:10.1002/ldr.2282. Gómez-Acata, E. S., I. Valencia-Becerril, C. Valenzuela-Encinas, A. S. Velásquez-Rodríguez, Y. E. Navarro-Noya, N. Montoya-Ciriaco, M. C. Suárez-Arriaga, et al. 2016. Deforestation and Cultivation with Maize (Zea Mays L.) has a Profound Effect on the Bacterial Community Structure in Soil. Land Degradation and Development 27 (4): 1122-1130. doi:10.1002/ldr.2328. Mahyou, H., B. Tychon, R. Balaghi, M. Louhaichi, and J. Mimouni. 2016. A Knowledge-Based Approach for Mapping Land Degradation in the Arid Rangelands of North Africa. Land Degradation and Development. doi:10.1002/ldr.2470. Mengistu, D., W. Bewket, and R. Lal. 2016. Conservation Effects on Soil Quality and Climate Change Adaptability of Ethiopian Watersheds. Land Degradation and Development 27 (6): 1603-1621. doi:10.1002/ldr.2376. Mukai, S. 2016. Gully Erosion Rates and Analysis of Determining Factors: A Case Study from the Semi-Arid Main Ethiopian Rift Valley. Land Degradation and Development. doi:10.1002/ldr.2532. Sadeghi, S.H.R., Gholami, L., Homaee, M., Khaledi Darvishan, A. 2015. Reducing sediment concentration and soil loss using organic and inorganic amendments at plot scale. Solid Earth, 6 (2), pp. 445-455. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/se-6-445-2015 Sadeghi, S.H.R., Gholami, L., Sharifi, E., Khaledi Darvishan, A., Homaee, M. 2015. Scale effect on runoff and soil loss control using rice straw mulch under laboratory conditions. Solid Earth, 6 (1), pp. 1-8.. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/se-6-1-2015 Soulard, C. E., W. Acevedo, S. V. Stehman, and O. P. Parker. 2016. Mapping Extent and Change in Surface Mines within the United States for 2001 to 2006. Land Degradation and Development 27 (2): 248-257. doi:10.1002/ldr.2412.

ENSO activity during the last climate cycle using Individual Foraminifera Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leduc, G.; Vidal, L.; Thirumalai, K.

2017-12-01

The El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the principal mode of interannual climate variability and affects key climate parameters such as low-latitude rainfall variability. Recent climate modeling experiments tend to suggest an increase in the frequency of both El Niño and La Niña events in the future, but these results remain model-dependent and require to be validated by paleodata-model comparisons. Fossil corals indicate that the ENSO variance during the 20th century is particularly high as compared to other time periods of the Holocene. Beyond the Holocene, however, little is known on past ENSO changes, which makes difficult to test paleoclimate model simulations that are used to study the ENSO sensitivity to various types of forcings. We have expanded an Individual Foraminifera Analysis (IFA) dataset using the thermocline-dwelling N. dutertrei on a marine core collected in the Panama Basin (Leduc et al., 2009), that has proven to be a skillful way to reconstruct the ENSO (Thirumalai et al., 2013). Our new IFA dataset comprehensively covers the Holocene, allowing to verify how the IFA method compares with ENSO reconstructions using corals. The dataset then extends back in time to Marine Isotope Stage 6 (MIS), with a special focus the last deglaciation and Termination II (MIS5/6) time windows, as well as key time periods to tests the sensitivity of ENSO to ice volume and orbital parameters. The new dataset confirms variable ENSO activity during the Holocene and weaker activity during LGM than during the Holocene, as a recent isotope-enabled climate model simulations of the LGM suggests (Zhu et al., 2017). Such pattern is reproduced for the Termination II. Leduc, G., L. Vidal, O. Cartapanis, and E. Bard (2009), Modes of eastern equatorial Pacific thermocline variability: Implications for ENSO dynamics over the last glacial period, Paleoceanography, 24, PA3202, doi:10.1029/2008PA001701. Thirumalai, K., J. W. Partin, C. S. Jackson, and T. M. Quinn (2013), Statistical constraints on El Niño Southern Oscillation reconstructions using individual foraminifera: A sensitivity analysis, Paleoceanography, 28, 401-412, doi:10.1002/palo.20037. Zhu, J., et al. (2017), Reduced ENSO variability at the LGM revealed by an isotope-enabled Earth system model, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 6984-6992, doi:10.1002/2017GL073406.

An improved and homogeneous altimeter sea level record from the ESA Climate Change Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legeais, Jean-François; Ablain, Michaël; Zawadzki, Lionel; Zuo, Hao; Johannessen, Johnny A.; Scharffenberg, Martin G.; Fenoglio-Marc, Luciana; Joana Fernandes, M.; Baltazar Andersen, Ole; Rudenko, Sergei; Cipollini, Paolo; Quartly, Graham D.; Passaro, Marcello; Cazenave, Anny; Benveniste, Jérôme

2018-02-01

Sea level is a very sensitive index of climate change since it integrates the impacts of ocean warming and ice mass loss from glaciers and the ice sheets. Sea level has been listed as an essential climate variable (ECV) by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). During the past 25 years, the sea level ECV has been measured from space by different altimetry missions that have provided global and regional observations of sea level variations. As part of the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) (established in 2010), the Sea Level project (SL_cci) aimed to provide an accurate and homogeneous long-term satellite-based sea level record. At the end of the first phase of the project (2010-2013), an initial version (v1.1) of the sea level ECV was made available to users (Ablain et al., 2015). During the second phase of the project (2014-2017), improved altimeter standards were selected to produce new sea level products (called SL_cci v2.0) based on nine altimeter missions for the period 1993-2015 (https://doi.org/10.5270/esa-sea_level_cci-1993_2015-v_2.0-201612; Legeais and the ESA SL_cci team, 2016c). Corresponding orbit solutions, geophysical corrections and altimeter standards used in this v2.0 dataset are described in detail in Quartly et al. (2017). The present paper focuses on the description of the SL_cci v2.0 ECV and associated uncertainty and discusses how it has been validated. Various approaches have been used for the quality assessment such as internal validation, comparisons with sea level records from other groups and with in situ measurements, sea level budget closure analyses and comparisons with model outputs. Compared with the previous version of the sea level ECV, we show that use of improved geophysical corrections, careful bias reduction between missions and inclusion of new altimeter missions lead to improved sea level products with reduced uncertainties on different spatial and temporal scales. However, there is still room for improvement since the uncertainties remain larger than the GCOS requirements (GCOS, 2011). Perspectives on subsequent evolution are also discussed.

Surge in North Atlantic hurricanes due to detectors, not climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schultz, Colin

2011-07-01

A spate of research has indicated there may be a link between climate change and the prevalence of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. In a new paper, researchers note upon closer inspection that the prominent upswing in tropical cyclone detections beginning in the midtwentieth century is attributable predominantly to the detection of “shorties” tropical cyclones with durations of less than 2 days. That the apparent surge in cyclone activity could be attributable to changes in the quality and quantity of detections has gained ground as a potential alternative explanation. Using a database of hurricane observations stretching back to 1878, Villarini et al. try to tease out any detectable climate signal from the records. The authors note that between 1878 and 1943 there were 0.58 shorty detections per year, and between 1944 and 2008 there were 2.58 shorty detections per year. This increase in shorties, which the authors propose may be related to the end of World War II and the dawn of air-based reconnaissance and weather tracking, was not mirrored by an increase in tropical cyclone activity for storms longer than 2 days. (Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres, doi:10.1029/2010JD015493, 2011

Ciguatera Fish Poisoning and Climate Change: Analysis of National Poison Center Data in the United States, 2001–2011

PubMed Central

Strickland, Matthew J.; Hess, Jeremy J.

2014-01-01

Background: Warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are positively related to incidence of ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP). Increased severe storm frequency may create more habitat for ciguatoxic organisms. Although climate change could expand the endemic range of CFP, the relationship between CFP incidence and specific environmental conditions is unknown. Objectives: We estimated associations between monthly CFP incidence in the contiguous United States and SST and storm frequency in the Caribbean basin. Methods: We obtained information on 1,102 CFP-related calls to U.S. poison control centers during 2001–2011 from the National Poison Data System. We performed a time-series analysis using Poisson regression to relate monthly CFP call incidence to SST and tropical storms. We investigated associations across a range of plausible lag structures. Results: Results showed associations between monthly CFP calls and both warmer SSTs and increased tropical storm frequency. The SST variable with the strongest association linked current monthly CFP calls to the peak August SST of the previous year. The lag period with the strongest association for storms was 18 months. If climate change increases SST in the Caribbean 2.5–3.5°C over the coming century as projected, this model implies that CFP incidence in the United States is likely to increase 200–400%. Conclusions: Using CFP calls as a marker of CFP incidence, these results clarify associations between climate variability and CFP incidence and suggest that, all other things equal, climate change could increase the burden of CFP. These findings have implications for disease prediction, surveillance, and public health preparedness for climate change. Citation: Gingold DB, Strickland MJ, Hess JJ. 2014. Ciguatera fish poisoning and climate change: analysis of National Poison Center data in the United States, 2001–2011. Environ Health Perspect 122:580–586; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307196 PMID:24618280

Managing Identifiers for Elements of Provenance of the Third National Climate Assessment in the Global Change Information System (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, C.; Aulenbach, S.; Duggan, B.; Goldstein, J.

2013-12-01

A Federal Advisory Committee (The "National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee" or NCADAC) has overseen the development of a draft climate report that after extensive review will be considered by the Federal Government in the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA). This comprehensive report (1) Integrates, evaluates, and interprets the findings of the Program and discusses the scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; (2) Analyzes the effects of global change on the natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and water resources, transportation, human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity; and (3) Analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years. The U.S. Global Change Program (USGCRP), composed of the 13 federal agencies most concerned with global change, is building a Global Change Information System (GCIS) that will ultimately organize access to all of the research, data, and information about global change from across the system. A prototype of the system has been constructed that captures and presents all of the elements of provenance of the NCA through a coherent data model and friendly front end web site. This work will focus on the globally unique and persistent identifiers used to reference and organize those items. These include externally referenced items, such as DOIs used by scientific journal publishers for research articles or by agencies as dataset identifiers, as well as our own internal approach to identifiers, our overall data model and experiences managing persistent identifiers within the GCIS.

Chesapeake Bay Watershed - Protecting the Chesapeake Bay and its rivers through science, restoration, and partnership

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2012-01-01

The Chesapeake Bay, the Nation's largest estuary, has been degraded due to the impact of human-population increase, which has doubled since 1950, resulting in degraded water quality, loss of habitat, and declines in populations of biological communities. Since the mid-1980s, the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP), a multi-agency partnership which includes the Department of Interior (DOI), has worked to restore the Bay ecosystem. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the critical role of providing unbiased scientific information that is utilized to document and understand ecosystem change to help assess the effectiveness of restoration strategies in the Bay and its watershed. The USGS revised its Chesapeake Bay science plan for 2006-2011 to address the collective needs of the CBP, DOI, and USGS with a mission to provide integrated science for improved understanding and management of the Bay ecosystem. The USGS science themes for this mission are: Causes and consequences of land-use change; Impact of climate change and associated hazards; Factors affecting water quality and quantity; Ability of habitat to support fish and bird populations; and Synthesis and forecasting to improve ecosystem assessment, conservation, and restoration.

Evidences of Wet Climate on Early Mars from Analysis of HRSC Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaumann, Ralf; Tirschj, Daniela; Adeli, Solmaz

2017-04-01

Both Geomorphological and mineralogical evidence point to the episodic availability of liquid water on the surface of early Mars. However, the distribution of water was not uniform over space and time. Considerable environmental and climate variations due to latitudinal or elevation effects combined with a diverse surface geology caused distinctively different of local conditions that influenced the planet`s water content. The history of water on Mars has been constantly revised and refined during the past years. Landforms such as widespread valley networks, fluvial deposits and associated assemblages of hydrated clay minerals support the hypothesis that the Martian climate was to some extend warm and wet during the early history of Mars [e.g.,1,2]. At the boundary between the Late Noachian and the Early Hesperian, environmental and climate conditions changed significantly and resulted in a transition towards a colder and dryer climate. The intensity of aqueous activity decreased throughout the Hesperian, including a transition from long-term and repeated precipitation-induced fluvial activity towards reduced, short-term, spatially isolated and groundwater-dominated fluvial erosion [e.g.,3,4,5,6]. At the end of the Hesperian, fluvial erosion has mostly ceased and volcanic, aeolian and glacial processes are interpreted to be dominant on Mars. The Early Amazonian was characterized most likely by a cold and dry climate that was similar to the conditions on recent Mars. However, Mars' climate and aqueous history, in particular the timing of the termination of fluvial activity and the transition from precipitation-induced toward groundwater-dominated erosion as well as the temperature with time, is still subject to debate. Modeling of flow transport processes revealed that the formation of deltas on Mars geologically requires only brief timespans [7] and, based on discharge estimates, the formation of erosional valleys also needs less than a few million years and seems to have occurred only episodically [4,8]. Recently formed gullies and alluvial fans might have experienced even shorter periods of liquid water (minutes to hours), as shown by the identification of debris flow deposits that were formed by short-lived high-energy mass-wasting events [9]. Even with no adequate global climatic conditions, such as a long lasting warm and wet Mars, water- and ice-related surface processes occurred on an episodic timescale. However, the duration of the episodically appropriate conditions seems to be restricted to geologically relatively short periods. [1] Sagan, C., et al., Science, 181, 1045-1049, 1973. [2] Andrews-Hanna, J.C. and Lewis, K.W., JGR, 116, E02007, doi: 10.1029/2010JE003709, 2011. [3] Harrison, K.P., and Grimm, R.E., JGR, 110, doi: 10.1029/2005JE002455, 2005. [4] Jaumann, R., et al., Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 294, 272-290, 2010. [5] Erkeling, G., et al., Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 294, 291-305, 2010.[6] Carr, M.H., Philosphical Transactions of the Royal Society A, 370, 2193-2215, 2012. [7] Kleinhans, M. G., et al., Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 294, 378-392, 2010. [8] Jaumann, R., et al., GRL, 32, 16203, 2005, doi: 10.1029/2005GL023415. [9] Reiss, D., et al., GRL 37(6), doi: 10.1029/2009gl042192, 2010.

The climate continuum revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Wang, J.; Partin, J. W.

2015-12-01

A grand challenge of climate science is to quantify the extent of natural variability on adaptation-relevant timescales (10-100y). Since the instrumental record is too short to adequately estimate the spectra of climate measures, this information must be derived from paleoclimate proxies, which may harbor a many-to-one, non-linear (e.g. thresholded) and non-stationary relationship to climate. In this talk, I will touch upon the estimation of climate scaling behavior from climate proxies. Two case studies will be presented: an investigation of scaling behavior in a reconstruction of global surface temperature using state-of- the-art data [PAGES2K Consortium, in prep] and methods [Guillot et al., 2015]. Estimating the scaling exponent β in spectra derived from this reconstruction, we find that 0 < β < 1 in most regions, suggesting long-term memory. Overall, the reconstruction-based spectra are steeper than the ones based on an instrumental dataset [HadCRUT4.2, Morice et al., 2012], and those estimated from PMIP3/CMIP5 models, suggesting the climate system is more energetic at multidecadal to centennial timescales than can be inferred from the short instrumental record or from the models developed to reproduce it [Laepple and Huybers, 2014]. an investigation of scaling behavior in speleothems records of tropical hydroclimate. We will make use of recent advances in proxy system modeling [Dee et al., 2015] and investigate how various aspects of the speleothem system (karst dynamics, age uncertainties) may conspire to bias the estimate of scaling behavior from speleothem timeseries. The results suggest that ignoring such complications leads to erroneous inferences about hydroclimate scaling. References Dee, S. G., J. Emile-Geay, M. N. Evans, Allam, A., D. M. Thompson, and E. J. Steig (2015), J. Adv. Mod. Earth Sys., 07, doi:10.1002/2015MS000447. Guillot, D., B. Rajaratnam, and J. Emile-Geay (2015), Ann. Applied. Statist., pp. 324-352, doi:10.1214/14-AOAS794. Laepple, T., and P. Huybers (2014), PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1412077111. Morice, C. P., J. J. Kennedy, N. A. Rayner, and P. D. Jones (2012), JGR: Atmospheres, 117(D8), doi:10.1029/2011JD017187. PAGES2K Consortium (in prep), A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era, Scientific Data.

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality.

PubMed

Gosling, Simon N; Hondula, David M; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-08-16

Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to "adaptation uncertainty" (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. This study had three aims: a ) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b ) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c ) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. We estimated impacts for 2070-2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634.

Comparative Assessment of the Effects of Climate Change on Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia

PubMed Central

Dear, Keith; Hajat, Shakoor; Heaviside, Clare; Eggen, Bernd; McMichael, Anthony J.

2014-01-01

Background: High and low ambient temperatures are associated with increased mortality in temperate and subtropical climates. Temperature-related mortality patterns are expected to change throughout this century because of climate change. Objectives: We compared mortality associated with heat and cold in UK regions and Australian cities for current and projected climates and populations. Methods: Time-series regression analyses were carried out on daily mortality in relation to ambient temperatures for UK regions and Australian cities to estimate relative risk functions for heat and cold and variations in risk parameters by age. Excess deaths due to heat and cold were estimated for future climates. Results: In UK regions, cold-related mortality currently accounts for more than one order of magnitude more deaths than heat-related mortality (around 61 and 3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively). In Australian cities, approximately 33 and 2 deaths per 100,000 population are associated every year with cold and heat, respectively. Although cold-related mortality is projected to decrease due to climate change to approximately 42 and 19 deaths per 100,000 population per year in UK regions and Australian cities, heat-related mortality is projected to increase to around 9 and 8 deaths per 100,000 population per year, respectively, by the 2080s, assuming no changes in susceptibility and structure of the population. Conclusions: Projected changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia over this century, but also to a decrease in cold-related deaths. Future temperature-related mortality will be amplified by aging populations. Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary in both countries, while protection from cold weather will be still needed. Citation: Vardoulakis S, Dear K, Hajat S, Heaviside C, Eggen B, McMichael AJ. 2014. Comparative assessment of the effects of climate change on heat- and cold-related mortality in the United Kingdom and Australia. Environ Health Perspect 122:1285–1292; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307524 PMID:25222967

Folgen des Globalen Wandels für das Grundwasser in Süddeutschland - Teil 2: Sozioökonomische Aspekte

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barthel, Roland; Krimly, Tatjana; Elbers, Michael; Soboll, Anja; Wackerbauer, Johann; Hennicker, Rolf; Janisch, Stephan; Reichenau, Tim G.; Dabbert, Stephan; Schmude, Jürgen; Ernst, Andreas; Mauser, Wolfram

2011-12-01

In order to account for complex interactions between humans climate and the water cycle, the research consortium GLOWA-Danube (www.glowa-danube.de) has developed the simulation system DANUBIA which consists of 17 coupled models. DANUBIA was applied to investigate various impacts of global-change between 2011 and 2060 in the Upper Danube Catchment. This article describes part 2 of an article series with investigations of socio-economic aspects, while part 1 (Barthel et al. in Grundwasser 16(4), doi:10.1007/s007-011-01794, 2011) deals with natural-spatial aspects. The principles of socio-economic actor-modeling and interactions between socio-economic and natural science model components are described here. We present selected simulations that show impacts on groundwater from changes in agriculture, tourism, economy, domestic water users and water supply. Despite decreases in water consumption, the scenario simulations show significant decreases in groundwater quantity. On the other hand, groundwater quality will likely be influenced more severely by land use changes compared to direct climatic causes. However, overall changes will not be dramatic.

Regional Climate Enterprises in the South Central U.S.: Crossover Relationships to Maximize User Engagement Effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langston, M. A.; Shafer, M.; Bartush, B.; Brown, D. P.

2016-12-01

Several Federal agencies have recently established regional enterprises that provide climate science and services. These include DOI's Climate Science Centers (CSCs), USDA's Regional Climate Hubs (Hubs), DOI's Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), and NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments Programs (RISAs), all of which have missions that include translating climate information for various constituencies and user groups. Each of these organizations makes a unique contribution to the regional climate services landscape; however, the potential for duplication of effort is also present. To ensure that appropriate levels of programmatic coordination are taking place, these entities have developed roles and relationships that crossover between organizations. These efforts have typically not been formally codified or prescribed; rather, they have developed organically and effectively in a fashion appropriate for the regional context. In this presentation, both advantages and disadvantages of this approach are addressed via examples from the South Central U.S. Advantages include flexibility and the development of extensive, multi-disciplinary networks; disadvantages include the lack of a holistic approach to oversight and planning. Best practices and opportunities to continue strengthening cross-organizational regional efficiencies are also highlighted.

A Three-Legged Stool or Race? Governance Models for NOAA RISAs, DOI CSCs, and USDA Climate Hubs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, J. G.

2014-12-01

NOAAs Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Teams, DOIs Climate Science Centers (CSCs), and USDAs Regional Climate Hubs (RCHs) have common missions of integrating climate and related knowledge across scientific disciplines and regions to create "actionable" information that decision-makes can use to manage climate risks and impacts at state and local scales. However, the sponsoring agency programs, university investigators, and local federal officials govern each differently. The three models of program and center governance are 1) exclusively university (RISAs), 2) a hybrid of Federal government and (host) university (CSCs,), and 3) exclusively Federal (Hubs). Each model has it's advantages and disadvantages in terms of legal definition and authority, scientific mission requirements and strategies, flexibility and legitimacy to conduct research and to collaborate regionally with constituencies, leadership and governance approach and "friction points,", staff capacity and ability to engage stakeholders, necessity to deliver products and services, bureaucratic oversight, performance evaluation, and political support at Congressional, state, and local levels. Using available sources of information and data, this paper will compare and contrast the strengths and weakness of these three regional applied climate science center governance models.

A Three-Legged Stool or Race? Governance Models for NOAA RISAs, DOI CSCs, and USDA Climate Hub

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, J. G.

2014-12-01

NOAAs Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Teams, DOIs Climate Science Centers (CSCs), and USDAs Regional Climate Hubs (RCHs) have common missions of integrating climate and related knowledge across scientific disciplines and regions to create "actionable" information that decision-makes can use to manage climate risks and impacts at state and local scales. However, the sponsoring agency programs, university investigators, and local federal officials govern each differently. The three models of program and center governance are 1) exclusively university (RISAs), 2) a hybrid of Federal government and (host) university (CSCs,), and 3) exclusively Federal (Hubs). Each model has it's advantages and disadvantages in terms of legal definition and authority, scientific mission requirements and strategies, flexibility and legitimacy to conduct research and to collaborate regionally with constituencies, leadership and governance approach and "friction points,", staff capacity and ability to engage stakeholders, necessity to deliver products and services, bureaucratic oversight, performance evaluation, and political support at Congressional, state, and local levels. Using available sources of information and data, this paper will compare and contrast the strengths and weakness of these three regional applied climate science center governance models.

Convection-Resolving Climate Change Simulations: Intensification of Heavy Hourly Precipitation Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ban, N.; Schmidli, J.; Schar, C.

2014-12-01

Reliable climate-change projections of extreme precipitation events are of great interest to decision makers, due to potentially important hydrological impacts such as floods, land slides and debris flows. Low-resolution climate models generally project increases of heavy precipitation events with climate change, but there are large uncertainties related to the limited spatial resolution and the parameterized representation of atmospheric convection. Here we employ a convection-resolving version of the COSMO model across an extended region (1100 km x 1100 km) covering the European Alps to investigate the differences between parameterized and explicit convection in climate-change scenarios. We conduct 10-year long integrations at resolutions of 12 and 2km. Validation using ERA-Interim driven simulations reveals major improvements with the 2km resolution, in particular regarding the diurnal cycle of mean precipitation and the representation of hourly extremes. In addition, 2km simulations replicate the observed super-adiabatic scaling at precipitation stations, i.e. peak hourly events increase faster with temperature than the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7%/K (see Ban et al. 2014). Convection-resolving climate change scenarios are conducted using control (1991-2000) and scenario (2081-2090) simulations driven by a CMIP5 GCM (i.e. the MPI-ESM-LR) under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Comparison between 12 and 2km resolutions with parameterized and explicit convection, respectively, reveals close agreement in terms of mean summer precipitation amounts (decrease by 30%), and regarding slight increases of heavy day-long events (amounting to 15% for 90th-percentile for wet-day precipitation). However, the different resolutions yield large differences regarding extreme hourly precipitation, with the 2km version projecting substantially faster increases of heavy hourly precipitation events (about 30% increases for 90th-percentile hourly events). Ban, N., J. Schmidli and C. Schӓr (2014): Evaluation of the convection-resolving regional climate modeling approach in decade-long simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.,119, 7889-7907, doi:10.1002/2014JD021478

A synthesis of sedimentary records of Australian environmental change during the last 2000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyler, J. J.; Karoly, D. J.; Gell, P.; Goodwin, I. D.

2013-12-01

Our understanding of Southern Hemispheric climate variability on multidecadal to multicentennial timescales is limited by a scarcity of quantitative, highly resolved climate records, a problem which is particularly manifest in Australia. To date there are no quantitative, annually resolved records from within continental Australia which extend further back in time than the most recent c. 300 years [Neukom and Gergis, 2012; PAGES 2k Consortium, 2013]. By contrast, a number of marine, lake, peat and speleothem sedimentary records exist, some of which span multiple millennia at sub-decadal resolution. Here we report a database of existing sedimentary records of environmental change in Australia [Freeman et al., 2011], of which 25 have sample resolutions < 100 years/sample and which span > 500 years in duration. The majority of these records are located in southeastern Australia, providing an invaluable resource with which to examine regional scale climate and environmental change. Although most of the records can not be quantitatively related to climate variability, Empirical Orthogonal Functions coupled with Monte Carlo iterative age modelling, demonstrate coherent patterns of environmental and ecological change. This coherency, as well as comparisons with a limited number of quantitative records, suggests that regional hydroclimatic changes were responsible for the observed patterns. Here, we discuss the implications of these findings with respect to Southern Hemisphere climate during the last 2000 years. In addition, we review the progress and potential of ongoing research in the region. References: Freeman, R., I. D. Goodwin, and T. Donovan (2011), Paleoclimate data synthesis and data base for the reconstruction of climate variability and impacts in NSW over the past 2000 years., Climate Futures Technical Report, 1/2011, 50 pages. Neukom, R., and J. Gergis (2012), Southern Hemisphere high-resolution palaeoclimate records of the last 2000 years, Holocene, 22(5), 501-524, doi:10.1177/0959683611427335. PAGES 2k Consortium (2013), Continental-scale temperature variability during the past two millennia, Nature Geoscience, 6, 339-346.

Concept for Future Data Services at the Long-Term Archive of WDCC combining DOIs with common PIDs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockhause, Martina; Weigel, Tobias; Toussaint, Frank; Höck, Heinke; Thiemann, Hannes; Lautenschlager, Michael

2013-04-01

The World Data Center for Climate (WDCC) hosted at the German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ) maintains a long-term archive (LTA) of climate model data as well as observational data. WDCC distinguishes between two types of LTA data: Structured data: Data output of an instrument or of a climate model run consists of numerous, highly structured individual datasets in a uniform format. Part of these data is also published on an ESGF (Earth System Grid Federation) data node. Detailed metadata is available allowing for fine-grained user-defined data access. Unstructured data: LTA data of finished scientific projects are in general unstructured and consist of datasets of different formats, different sizes, and different contents. For these data compact metadata is available as content information. The structured data is suitable for WDCC's DataCite DOI process, the project data only in exceptional cases. The DOI process includes a thorough quality control process of technical as well as scientific aspects by the publication agent and the data creator. DOIs are assigned to data collections appropriate to be cited in scientific publications, like a simulation run. The data collection is defined in agreement with the data creator. At the moment there is no possibility to identify and cite individual datasets within this DOI data collection analogous to the citation of chapters in a book. Also missing is a compact citation regulation for a user-specified collection of data. WDCC therefore complements its existing LTA/DOI concept by Persistent Identifier (PID) assignment to datasets using Handles. In addition to data identification for internal and external use, the concept of PIDs allows to define relations among PIDs. Such structural information is stored as key-value pair directly in the handles. Thus, relations provide basic provenance or lineage information, even if part of the data like intermediate results are lost. WDCC intends to use additional PIDs on metadata entities with a relation to the data PID(s). These add background information on the data creation process (e.g. descriptions of experiment, model, model set-up, and platform for the model run etc.) to the data. These pieces of additional information increase the re-usability of the archived model data, significantly. Other valuable additional information for scientific collaboration could be added by the same mechanism, like quality information and annotations. Apart from relations among data and metadata entities, PIDs on collections are advantageous for model data: Collections allow for persistent references to single datasets or subsets of data assigned a DOI, Data objects and additional information objects can be consistently connected via relations (provenance, creation, quality information for data),

Data always getting bigger -- A scalable DOI architecture for big and expanding scientific data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Prakash, Giri; Shrestha, Biva; Younkin, Katarina

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Archive established a data citation strategy based on Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) for the ARM datasets in order to facilitate citing continuous and diverse ARM datasets in articles and other papers. This strategy eases the tracking of data provided as supplements to articles and papers. Additionally, it allows future data users and the ARM Climate Research Facility to easily locate the exact data used in various articles. Traditionally, DOIs are assigned to individual digital objects (a report or a data table), but for ARM datasets, these DOIs are assigned to an ARM data product.more » This eliminates the need for creating DOIs for numerous components of the ARM data product, in turn making it easier for users to manage and cite the ARM data with fewer DOIs. In addition, the ARM data infrastructure team, with input from scientific users, developed a citation format and an online data citation generation tool for continuous data streams. As a result, this citation format includes DOIs along with additional details such as spatial and temporal information.« less

Data always getting bigger -- A scalable DOI architecture for big and expanding scientific data

DOE PAGES

Prakash, Giri; Shrestha, Biva; Younkin, Katarina; ...

2016-08-31

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Archive established a data citation strategy based on Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) for the ARM datasets in order to facilitate citing continuous and diverse ARM datasets in articles and other papers. This strategy eases the tracking of data provided as supplements to articles and papers. Additionally, it allows future data users and the ARM Climate Research Facility to easily locate the exact data used in various articles. Traditionally, DOIs are assigned to individual digital objects (a report or a data table), but for ARM datasets, these DOIs are assigned to an ARM data product.more » This eliminates the need for creating DOIs for numerous components of the ARM data product, in turn making it easier for users to manage and cite the ARM data with fewer DOIs. In addition, the ARM data infrastructure team, with input from scientific users, developed a citation format and an online data citation generation tool for continuous data streams. As a result, this citation format includes DOIs along with additional details such as spatial and temporal information.« less

Broad-scale lake expansion and flooding inundates essential wood bison habitat in northwestern Canada.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blais, J. M.; Korosi, J.; Thienpont, J. R.; Pisaric, M. F.; Kokelj, S.; Smol, J. P.; Simpson, M. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change-induced landscape alterations have consequences for vulnerable wildlife. In high-latitude regions, dramatic changes in water levels have been linked to climate warming. While most attention has focused on shrinking Arctic lakes, here, we document the opposite scenario: extensive lake expansion in Canada's Northwest Territories that has implications for the conservation of ecologically-important wood bison. We quantified lake area changes since 1986 using remote sensing techniques, and recorded a net gain of > 500 km2, from 5.7% to 11% total water coverage. Inter-annual variability in water level was significantly correlated to the Pacific/North American pattern teleconnection and the summer sea surface temperature anomaly. Historical reconstructions using proxy data archived in dated sediment cores showed that recent lake expansion is outside the range of natural variability of these ecosystems over at least the last 300 years. Lake expansion resulted in increased allochthonous carbon transport, as shown unequivocally by increases in lignin-derived phenols, but with a greater proportional increase in the contribution of organic matter from phytoplankton, as a result of increased open-water habitat. We conclude that complex hydrological changes occurring as a result of recent climatic change have resulted in rapid and widespread lake expansion that may significantly affect at-risk wildlife populations. This study is based on results we reported in Nature Communications in 2017 (DOI: 10.1038/ncomms14510).

Quantitative summer and winter temperature reconstructions from pollen and chironomid data in the Baltic-Belarus area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veski, Siim; Seppä, Heikki; Stančikaitė, Migle; Zernitskaya, Valentina; Reitalu, Triin; Gryguc, Gražyna; Heinsalu, Atko; Stivrins, Normunds; Amon, Leeli; Vassiljev, Jüri; Heiri, Oliver

2015-04-01

Quantitative reconstructions based on fossil pollen and chironomids are widely used and useful for long-term climate variability estimations. The Lateglacial and early Holocene period (15-8 ka BP) in the Baltic-Belarus (BB) area between 60°-51° N was characterized by sudden shifts in climate due to various climate forcings affecting the climate of the northern hemisphere and North Atlantic, including the proximity of receding ice sheets. Climate variations in BB during the LG were eminent as the southern part of the region was ice free during the Last Glacial Maximum over 19 ka BP, whereas northern Estonia became ice free no sooner than 13 ka BP. New pollen based reconstructions of summer (May-to-August) and winter (December-to-February) temperatures between 15-8 ka BP along a S-N transect in the BB area display trends in temporal and spatial changes in climate variability. These results are completed by two chironomid-based July mean temperature reconstructions (Heiri et al. 2014). The magnitude of change compared with modern temperatures was more prominent in the northern part of BB area than in the southern part. The 4 °C winter and 2 °C summer warming at the start of GI-1 was delayed in the BB area and Lateglacial maximum temperatures were reached at ca 13.6 ka BP, being 4 °C colder than the modern mean. The Younger Dryas cooling in the area was 5 °C colder than present as inferred by all proxies (Veski et al. in press). In addition, our analyses show an early Holocene divergence in winter temperature trends with modern values reaching 1 ka earlier (10 ka BP) in southern BB compared to the northern part of the region (9 ka BP). Heiri, O., Brooks, S.J., Renssen, H., Bedford, A., Hazekamp, M., Ilyashuk, B., Jeffers, E.S., Lang, B., Kirilova, E., Kuiper, S., Millet, L., Samartin, S., Toth, M., Verbruggen, F., Watson, J.E., van Asch, N., Lammertsma, E., Amon, L., Birks, H.H., Birks, J.B., Mortensen, M.F., Hoek, W.Z., Magyari, E., Muñoz Sobrino, C., Seppä, H., Tinner, W., Tonkov, S., Veski, S., Lotter, A.F., 2014. Validation of climate model-inferred regional temperature change for late-glacial Europe. Nature Communications 5:4914, doi: 10.1038/ncomms5914 Veski, S., Seppä, H., Stančikaitė, M., Zernitskaya, V., Reitalu, T., Gryguc, G., Heinsalu, A., Stivrins, N., Amon, L., Vassiljev, J., Heiri, O. (in press). Quantitative summer and winter temperature reconstructions from pollen and chironomid data between 15 and 8 ka BP in the Baltic-Belarus area. Quaternary International. doi: 10.1016/j.quaint.2014.10.059

Has anthropogenic land-cover change been a significant climate forcing in the past? - An assessment for the Baltic Sea catchment area based on a literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaillard, Marie-Jose; Kaplan, Jed O.; Kleinen, Thomas; Brigitte Nielsen, Anne; Poska, Anneli; Samuelsson, Patrick; Strandberg, Gustav; Trondman, Anna-Kari

2015-04-01

We reviewed the recent published scientific literature on land cover-climate interactions at the global and regional spatial scales with the aim to assess whether it is convincingly demonstrated that anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) has been (over the last centuries and millennia) a significant climate forcing at the global scale, and more specifically at the scale of the Baltic Sea catchment area. The conclusions from this review are as follows: i) anthropogenic land-cover change (ALCC) is one of the few climate forcings for which the net direction of the climate response in the past is still not known. The uncertainty is due to the often counteracting temperature responses to the many biogeophysical effects, and to the biogeochemical vs biogeophysical effects; ii) there is no indication that deforestation in the Baltic Sea area since AD 1850 would have been a major cause of the recent climate warming in the region through a positive biogeochemical feedback; iii) several model studies suggest that boreal reforestation might not be an effective climate warming mitigation tool as it might lead to increased warming through biogeophysical processes; iv) palaeoecological studies indicate a major transformation of the landscape by anthropogenic activities in the southern zone of the study region occurring between 6000 and 3000/2500 calendar years before present (cal. BP) (1) ; v) the only modelling study so far of the biogeophysical effects of past ALCCs on regional climate in Europe suggests that a deforestation of the magnitude of that reconstructed for the past (between 6000 and 200 cal BP) can produce changes in winter and summer temperatures of +/- 1°, the sign of the change depending on the season and the region (2). Thus, if ALCC and their biogeophysical effects did matter in the past, they should matter today and in the future. A still prevailing idea is that planting trees will mitigate climate warming through biogeochemical effects. Therefore, there is still an urgent need to better understand the biogeophysical effects on regional and continental climate of afforestation in the hemiboreal and boreal regions, and their significance in relation to the biogeochemical effects. (1) Trondman, A.-K. et al. (2014) Global Change Biology (2014), doi: 10.1111/gcb.12737 (2) Strandberg, G. et al. (2014) Climate of the Past 10, 661-680.

Confronting Misinformation in Climate Change Higher Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedford, D. P.

2012-12-01

Among the many challenges faced by climate change educators is the highly politicized nature of the subject matter (e.g. McCright and Dunlap, 2011) and the associated misinformation from key media outlets and websites (e.g. see Oreskes and Conway, 2010). Students typically do not enter the classroom as 'blank slates', but often have already formed some opinion about climate change which may or may not be based on reputable sources. Further, many students have lives outside the classroom and/or off campus, and even those who do live in an isolated bubble of campus life will eventually graduate. Thus, providing students with a level of climate change knowledge and understanding robust enough to cope with misinformation may be an important goal for educators. This paper presents a case study of the direct use of climate change misinformation as a college-level classroom activity. Some research from other fields (notably psychology) has found that directly addressing misconceptions in the classroom can be the most effective means of dispelling them (Kowalski and Taylor, 2009). However, directly confronting misinformation in the classroom carries inherent risks, such as reinforcing misconceptions (e.g. Cook and Lewandowsky, 2011). This paper therefore considers approaches to minimizing those risks while attempting to maximize the possible benefits. This paper argues that use of misinformation as a teaching tool can provide useful exercises in critical thinking, testing of content knowledge, and consideration of the nature of science. Cook, J. and S. Lewandowsky. 2011. The Debunking Handbook. Online publication available www.skepticalscience.com/docs/Debunking_Handbook.pdf. Accessed 7 July 2012. Kowalski, P. and A.K. Taylor. 2009. DOI: 10.1080/00986280902959986. McCright, A., and R.T. Dunlap. 2011. The politicization of climate change and polarization in the American public's views of global warming, 2001-2010. The Sociological Quarterly 52:2, 155-194. Oreskes, N. and E. Conway. 2010. Merchants of Doubt. Bloomsbury Press.

Observed microphysical changes in Arctic mixed-phase clouds when transitioning from sea-ice to open ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, Gillian; Jones, Hazel M.; Crosier, Jonathan; Bower, Keith N.; Darbyshire, Eoghan; Taylor, Jonathan W.; Liu, Dantong; Allan, James D.; Williams, Paul I.; Gallagher, Martin W.; Choularton, Thomas W.

2016-04-01

The Arctic sea-ice is intricately coupled to the atmosphere[1]. The decreasing sea-ice extent with the changing climate raises questions about how Arctic cloud structure will respond. Any effort to answer these questions is hindered by the scarcity of atmospheric observations in this region. Comprehensive cloud and aerosol measurements could allow for an improved understanding of the relationship between surface conditions and cloud structure; knowledge which could be key in validating weather model forecasts. Previous studies[2] have shown via remote sensing that cloudiness increases over the marginal ice zone (MIZ) and ocean with comparison to the sea-ice; however, to our knowledge, detailed in-situ data of this transition have not been previously presented. In 2013, the Aerosol-Cloud Coupling and Climate Interactions in the Arctic (ACCACIA) campaign was carried out in the vicinity of Svalbard, Norway to collect in-situ observations of the Arctic atmosphere and investigate this issue. Fitted with a suite of remote sensing, cloud and aerosol instrumentation, the FAAM BAe-146 aircraft was used during the spring segment of the campaign (Mar-Apr 2013). One case study (23rd Mar 2013) produced excellent coverage of the atmospheric changes when transitioning from sea-ice, through the MIZ, to the open ocean. Clear microphysical changes were observed, with the cloud liquid-water content increasing by almost four times over the transition. Cloud base, depth and droplet number also increased, whilst ice number concentrations decreased slightly. The surface warmed by ~13 K from sea-ice to ocean, with minor differences in aerosol particle number (of sizes corresponding to Cloud Condensation Nuclei or Ice Nucleating Particles) observed, suggesting that the primary driver of these microphysical changes was the increased heat fluxes and induced turbulence from the warm ocean surface as expected. References: [1] Kapsch, M.L., Graversen, R.G. and Tjernström, M. Springtime atmospheric energy transport and the control of Arctic summer sea-ice extent. Nature Clim. Change 3, 744-748, doi:10.1038/nclimate1884 (2013) [2] Palm, S. P., Strey, S. T., Spinhirne, J., and Markus, T.: Influence of Arctic sea ice extent on polar cloud fraction and vertical structure and implications for regional climate. Journal of Geophysical Research (Atmospheres), 115, D21209, doi:10.1029/2010JD013900 (2010)

Assessing climate change impact on complementarity between solar and hydro power in areas affected by glacier shrinkage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diah Puspitarini, Handriyanti; François, Baptiste; Zoccatelli, Davide; Brown, Casey; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Zaramella, Mattia; Borga, Marco

2017-04-01

Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) sources such as wind, solar and runoff sources are variable in time and space, following their driving weather variables. In this work we aim to analyse optimal mixes of energy sources, i.e. mixes of sources which minimize the deviation between energy load and generation, for a region in the Upper Adige river basin (Eastern Italian Alps) affected by glacier shrinking. The study focuses on hydropower (run of the river - RoR) and solar energy, and analyses the current situation as well different climate change scenarios. Changes in glacier extent in response to climate warming and/or altered precipitation regimes have the potential to substantially alter the magnitude and timing, as well as the spatial variation of watershed-scale hydrologic fluxes. This may change the complementarity with solar power as well. In this study, we analyse the climate change impact on complementarity between RoR and solar using the Decision Scaling approach (Brown et al. 2012). With this approach, the system vulnerability is separated from the climatic hazard that can come from any set of past or future climate conditions. It departs from conventional top-down impact studies because it explores the sensitivity of the system response to a plausible range of climate variations rather than its sensitivity to the time-varying outcome of individual GCM projections. It mainly relies on the development of Climate Response Functions that bring together i) the sensitivity of some system success and/or failure indicators to key external drivers (i.e. mean features of regional climate) and ii) the future values of these drivers as simulated from climate simulation chains. The main VRE sources used in the study region are solar- and hydro-power (with an important fraction of run-of-the river hydropower). The considered indicator of success is the 'energy penetration' coefficient, defined as the long-run percentage of energy demand naturally met by the VRE on an hourly basis. Climate response functions, developed in a 2D climate change space (change in mean temperature and precipitation), are built from multiple hydro-climatic scenarios obtained by perturbing the observed weather time series with the change factor method, and considering given glacier storage states. Climate experiments are further used for assessing these change factors from different emission scenarios, climate models and future prediction lead times. Their positioning on the Climate Response Function allows discussing the risk/opportunities pertaining to changes in VRE penetration in the future. Results show i) the large impact of glacier shrinkage on the complementarity between solar and RoR energy sources and ii) that the impact is decreasing with time, with the main alterations to be expected in the coming 30 years. Brown, C., Ghile, Y., Laverty, M., Li, K., (2012). Decision scaling: Linking bottom up vulnerability analysis with climate projections in the water sector. Water Resour Res 48. 515 doi:10.1029/2011WR011212

U.S. Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers and U.S. Geological Survey National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center—Annual report for 2017

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varela Minder, Elda

2018-04-19

IntroductionThe year 2017 was a year of review and renewal for the Department of the Interior (DOI) Climate Science Centers (CSCs) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC). The Southeast, Northwest, Alaska, Southwest, and North Central CSCs’ 5-year summary review reports were released in 2017 and contain the findings of the external review teams led by the Cornell University Human Dimensions Research Unit in conjunction with the American Fisheries Society. The reports for the Pacific Islands, South Central, and Northeast CSCs are planned for release in 2018. The reviews provide an opportunity to evaluate aspects of the cooperative agreement, such as the effectiveness of the CSC in meeting project goals and assessment of the level of scientific contribution and achievement. These reviews serve as a way for the CSCs and NCCWSC to look for ways to recognize and enhance our network’s strengths and identify areas for improvement. The reviews were followed by the CSC recompetition, which led to new hosting agreements at the Northwest, Alaska, and Southeast CSCs. Learn more about the excellent science and activities conducted by the network centers in the 2017 annual report.

NOAA tools to support CSC and LCC regional climate science priorities in the western Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, D. P.; Marcy, D.; Robbins, K.; Shafer, M.; Stiller, H.

2012-12-01

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is an active regional partner with the Department of Interior (DOI) in supplying and supporting the delivery of climate science and services. A primary mechanism for NOAA-DOI coordination at the regional scale is the Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) network, which is supported in part by DOI Climate Science Centers (CSC). Together, the CSCs and LCCs provide a framework to identify landscape-scale science and services priorities for conservation and management. As a key partner of the CSCs and an active member of many LCCs, NOAA is working to ensure its own regional product and service delivery efforts will help address these conservation and management challenges. Two examples of NOAA's regional efforts are highlighted here, with a focus on the coastal and interior geographies of the western Gulf of Mexico where NOAA partners with the South Central CSC and participates as a member of the Gulf Coast Prairie LCC. Along the Texas coastline, a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer, produced by NOAA's Coastal Services Center and available via its Digital Coast interface, allows constituents to visualize estimates of sea level rise, measures of uncertainty, flood frequencies, and environmental (e.g., marsh migration) and socioeconomic (e.g., tidal flooding of built environments) impacts. In the interior of Texas and Louisiana, NOAA's Southern Regional Climate Center is leading a consortium of partners in the development of a unified source of regional water reservoir information, including current conditions, a historical database, and web-based visualization tools to illustrate spatio-temporal variations in water availability to a broad array of hydrological, agricultural, and other customers. These two examples of NOAA products can, in their existing forms, support regional conservation and management priorities for CSCs and LCCs by informing vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning. Enhancements to these and other efforts can be achieved through a robust collaboration between NOAA and DOI that links regional science priorities to regional service delivery.

The linkage between marine sediment records and changes in Holocene Saharan landscape: simulating the dust cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egerer, Sabine; Claussen, Martin; Reick, Christian; Stanelle, Tanja

2016-04-01

Marine sediment records reveal an abrupt and strong increase in dust deposition in the North Atlantic at the end of the African Humid Period about 4.9 ka to 5.5 ka ago (deMenocal et al., 2000; McGee et al., 2013). The change in dust flux has been attributed to varying Saharan land surface cover. Alternatively, the enhanced dust accumulation is linked to enhanced surface winds and a consequent intensification of coastal upwelling. We present simulation results from a recent sensitivity study, where we demonstrate for the first time the direct link between dust accumulation in marine cores and changes in Saharan land surface during the Holocene. We have simulated timeslices of he mid-Holocene (6 ka BP) and pre-industrial (1850 AD) dust cycle as a function of Saharan land surface cover and atmosphere-ocean conditions using the coupled atmosphere-aerosol model ECHAM6.1-HAM2.1. We prescribe mid-Holocene vegetation cover based on a vegetation reconstruction from pollen data (Hoelzmann et al., 1998) and mid-Holocene lake surface area is determined using a water routing and storage model (Tegen et al., 2002). In agreement with data from marine sediment cores, our simulations show that mid-Holocene dust deposition fluxes in the North Atlantic were two to three times lower compared with pre-industrial fluxes. We identify Saharan land surface characteristics to be the main control on dust transport from North Africa to the North Atlantic. We conclude that the variation in dust accumulation in marine cores is likely related to a transition of the Saharan landscape during the Holocene and not due to changes in atmospheric or ocean conditions alone. Reference: deMenocal, P., Ortiz, J., Guilderson, T., Adkins, J., Sarnthein, M., Baker, L., and Yarusinsky, M.: Abrupt onset and termination of the African Humid Period:: rapid climate responses to gradual insolation forcing, Quaternary Science Reviews, 19, 347-361, 2000. Hoelzmann, P., Jolly, D., Harrison, S. P., Laarif, F., Bonnefille, R., and Pachur, H.-J.: Mid-Holocene land-surface conditions in northern Africa and the Arabian Peninsula: A data set for the analysis of biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system, Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 12, 35-51, doi:10.1029/97GB02733, 1998. McGee, D., deMenocal, P., Winckler, G., Stuut, J., and Bradtmiller, L.: The magnitude, timing and abruptness of changes in North African dust deposition over the last 20,000 yr, Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 371-372, 163-176, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epsl.2013.03.054, 2013. Tegen, I., Harrison, S. P., Kohfeld, K., Prentice, I. C., Coe, M., and Heimann, M.: Impact of vegetation and preferential source areas on global dust aerosol: Results from a model study, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 107, AAC 14-1-AAC 14-27, doi:10.1029/2001JD000963, 2002.

Adaptation to Climate Change: A Comparative Analysis of Modeling Methods for Heat-Related Mortality

PubMed Central

Hondula, David M.; Bunker, Aditi; Ibarreta, Dolores; Liu, Junguo; Zhang, Xinxin; Sauerborn, Rainer

2017-01-01

Background: Multiple methods are employed for modeling adaptation when projecting the impact of climate change on heat-related mortality. The sensitivity of impacts to each is unknown because they have never been systematically compared. In addition, little is known about the relative sensitivity of impacts to “adaptation uncertainty” (i.e., the inclusion/exclusion of adaptation modeling) relative to using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios. Objectives: This study had three aims: a) Compare the range in projected impacts that arises from using different adaptation modeling methods; b) compare the range in impacts that arises from adaptation uncertainty with ranges from using multiple climate models and emissions scenarios; c) recommend modeling method(s) to use in future impact assessments. Methods: We estimated impacts for 2070–2099 for 14 European cities, applying six different methods for modeling adaptation; we also estimated impacts with five climate models run under two emissions scenarios to explore the relative effects of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Results: The range of the difference (percent) in impacts between including and excluding adaptation, irrespective of climate modeling and emissions uncertainty, can be as low as 28% with one method and up to 103% with another (mean across 14 cities). In 13 of 14 cities, the ranges in projected impacts due to adaptation uncertainty are larger than those associated with climate modeling and emissions uncertainty. Conclusions: Researchers should carefully consider how to model adaptation because it is a source of uncertainty that can be greater than the uncertainty in emissions and climate modeling. We recommend absolute threshold shifts and reductions in slope. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP634 PMID:28885979

Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) activities at the Department of the Interior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quirk, Bruce K.; Hutt, Michael E.

2014-01-01

The U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) is responsible for protecting and managing the natural resources and heritage on almost 20% of the land in the United States. The DOI’s mission requires access to remotely sensed data over vast lands, including areas that are remote and potentially dangerous to access. Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) technology has the potential to enable the DOI to be a better steward of the land by: (1) Improving natural hazard forecasting and the analysis of the impacts. (2) Improving the understanding of climate change to better plan for likely impacts. (3) Developing precipitation and evaporation forecasting to better manage water resources. (4) Monitoring Arctic ice change and its impacts on ecosystems, coasts, and transportation. (5) Increasing safety and effectiveness of wildland fire management. (6) Enhancing search and rescue capabilities. (7) Broadening the abilities to monitor environmental or landscape conditions and changes. (8) Better understanding and protecting the Nation’s ecosystems. The initial operational testing and evaluations performed by the DOI have proven that UAS technology can be used to support many of the Department’s activities. UAS technology provides scientists a way to look longer, closer and more frequently at some of Earth’s most remote areas—places that were previously too dangerous or expensive to monitor in detail. The flexibility of operations and relative low cost to purchase and operate Small Unmanned Aerial System (sUAS) enhances the ability to track long-term landscape and environmental change. The initial testing indicates the operational costs are approximately 10% of traditional manned aircraft. In addition, users can quickly assess landscape-altering events such as wildland fires, floods and volcanoes. UAS technology will allow the DOI to do more with less and in the process enhance the Department’s ability to provide unbiased scientific information to help stakeholders make informed decisions. It will also provide a digital baseline record that can be archived and used when monitoring future events or conditions. One possible future scenario has scientists carrying sUAS into the field allowing quick deployment and operation to observe the environment or for emergency response. This scenario could also include a persistent monitoring capability provided by a UAS that can stay airborne over a small geographic area for days or weeks, or possibly longer. While the DOI focus is on sUAS, the Department recognizes that larger UAS systems will also play a role in meeting its mission. The Department anticipates meeting long-duration or specialized acquisition commitments, such as state or national aerial photography, by collaboration with other agencies or through commercial contracts. Even though the DOI continues to evaluate UAS and sensor technology to meet the Department’s mission, some of its bureaus are already moving towards an operational capability. The authors fully anticipate that by 2020 UAS will emerge as one of the primary platforms for DOI remote sensing applications.

Joint Applications Pilot of the National Climate Predictions and Projections Platform and the North Central Climate Science Center: Delivering climate projections on regional scales to support adaptation planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Ojima, D. S.; Morisette, J. T.

2012-12-01

The DOI North Central Climate Science Center (NC CSC) and the NOAA/NCAR National Climate Predictions and Projections (NCPP) Platform and have initiated a joint pilot study to collaboratively explore the "best available climate information" to support key land management questions and how to provide this information. NCPP's mission is to support state of the art approaches to develop and deliver comprehensive regional climate information and facilitate its use in decision making and adaptation planning. This presentation will describe the evolving joint pilot as a tangible, real-world demonstration of linkages between climate science, ecosystem science and resource management. Our joint pilot is developing a deliberate, ongoing interaction to prototype how NCPP will work with CSCs to develop and deliver needed climate information products, including translational information to support climate data understanding and use. This pilot also will build capacity in the North Central CSC by working with NCPP to use climate information used as input to ecological modeling. We will discuss lessons to date on developing and delivering needed climate information products based on this strategic partnership. Four projects have been funded to collaborate to incorporate climate information as part of an ecological modeling project, which in turn will address key DOI stakeholder priorities in the region: Riparian Corridors: Projecting climate change effects on cottonwood and willow seed dispersal phenology, flood timing, and seedling recruitment in western riparian forests. Sage Grouse & Habitats: Integrating climate and biological data into land management decision models to assess species and habitat vulnerability Grasslands & Forests: Projecting future effects of land management, natural disturbance, and CO2 on woody encroachment in the Northern Great Plains The value of climate information: Supporting management decisions in the Plains and Prairie Potholes LCC. NCCSC's role in these projects is to provide the connections between climate data and running ecological models, and prototype these for future work. NCPP will develop capacities to provide enhanced climate information at relevant spatial and temporal scales, both for historical climate and projections of future climate, and will work to link expert guidance and understanding of modeling processes and evaluation of modeling with the use of numerical climate data. Translational information thus is a suite of information that aids in translation of numerical climate information into usable knowledge for applications, e.g. ecological response models, hydrologic risk studies. This information includes technical and scientific aspects including, but not limited to: 1) results of objective, quantitative evaluation of climate models & downscaling techniques, 2) guidance on appropriate uses and interpretation, i.e., understanding the advantages and limitations of various downscaling techniques for specific user applications, 3) characterizing and interpreting uncertainty, 4) Descriptions meaningful to applications, e.g. narratives. NCPP believes that translational information is best co-developed between climate scientists and applications scientists, such as the NC-CSC pilot.

Impacts of climate change and internal climate variability on french rivers streamflows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Eric

2016-04-01

The assessment of the impacts of climate change often requires to set up long chains of modeling, from the model to estimate the future concentration of greenhouse gases to the impact model. Throughout the modeling chain, sources of uncertainty accumulate making the exploitation of results for the development of adaptation strategies difficult. It is proposed here to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and the associated uncertainties. The contribution of the uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and internal variability are addressed in this work. To have a large ensemble of climate simulations, the study is based on Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), including several simulations from the same GCM to properly assess uncertainties from internal climate variability. Simulations from the four Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) are downscaled with a statistical method developed in a previous study (Dayon et al. 2015). The hydrological system Isba-Modcou is then driven by the downscaling results on a 8 km grid over France. Isba is a land surface model that calculates the energy and water balance and Modcou a hydrogeological model that routes the surface runoff given by Isba. Based on that framework, uncertainties uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and climate internal variability are evaluated. Their relative importance is described for the next decades and the end of this century. In a last part, uncertainties due to internal climate variability on streamflows simulated with downscaled GCM and Isba-Modcou are evaluated against observations and hydrological reconstructions on the whole 20th century. Hydrological reconstructions are based on the downscaling of recent atmospheric reanalyses of the 20th century and observations of temperature and precipitation. We show that the multi-decadal variability of streamflows observed in the 20th century is generally weaker in the hydrological simulations done with the historical simulations from climate models. References: Dayon et al. (2015), Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling mehtod for precipitation in France, J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120, 1023-1043, doi:10.1002/2014JD022236

Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System.

PubMed

Semenza, Jan C; Trinanes, Joaquin; Lohr, Wolfgang; Sudre, Bertrand; Löfdahl, Margareta; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime; Nichols, Gordon L; Rocklöv, Joacim

2017-10-10

Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure-response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198.

Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System

PubMed Central

Trinanes, Joaquin; Lohr, Wolfgang; Sudre, Bertrand; Löfdahl, Margareta; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime; Nichols, Gordon L.; Rocklöv, Joacim

2017-01-01

Background: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). Objectives: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. Methods: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. Conclusions: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198 PMID:29017986

Environmental effects of ozone depletion and its interactions ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

When considering the effects of climate change, it has become clear that processes resulting in changes in stratospheric ozone are more complex than previously believed. As a result of this, human health and environmental issues will be longer-lasting and more regionally variable. Like the other Panels, the EEAP produces a detailed report every four years; the most recent was published as a series of seven papers in 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2015, 14, 1-184). In the years in between, the EEAP produces less detailed and shorter Progress Reports of the relevant scientific findings. The most recent of these was for 2015 (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2016, 15, 141-147). The present Progress Report for 2016 assesses some of the highlights and new insights with regard to the interactive nature of the direct and indirect effects of UV radiation, atmospheric processes, and climate change. The report is also published in (Photochem. Photobiol. Sci., 2017, DOI: 10.1039/c7pp90001e). The more detailed Quadrennial Assessment will be made available in 2018. The Parties to the Montreal Protocol are informed by three Panels of experts. One of these is the Environmental Effects Assessment Panel (EEAP), which deals with two focal issues. The first focus is the effects on increased UV radiation on human health, animals, plants, biogeochemistry, air quality, and materials. The second focus is on interactions between UV radiation and global climate change and how these may

Proceedings of the third USGS modeling conference, June 7-11, 2010, Broomfield, Colorado-Understanding and predicting for a changing world

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brady, Shailaja R.

2011-01-01

The Third USGS Modeling Conference was held June 7th-11, 2010, in Broomfield, Colorado. The conference focused on the development and application of analytical and theoretical models and data availability that support managing the Nation's resources and help protect lives and property. Participants at the conference included scientists and managers from Department of the Interior (DOI) Bureaus; national and international Federal, State, and local agencies; academic institutions; and nongovernmental organizations. The conference was organized according to DOI priorities and the strategic directions of the USGS Science Strategy; the following themes were emphasized: (1) Understanding Ecosystems and Restoring America's Treasured Landscapes; (2) Climate Change and Impact; (3) New Energy Frontier and Minerals for America; (4) A National Hazards, Risk, and Resilience Assessment Program; (5) Role of Environment and Wildlife in Human Health; (6) A Water Census of the United States; and (7) New Methods of Investigation and Discovery. The conference theme-"Understanding and Predicting for a Changing World"-focused on the following goals: advance development and application of models; provide tools that address management issues; present state-of-the-art models ranging from individual phenomena to integrated systems; and foster a working community among scientists and managers.

DOI/GTN-P climate and active-layer data acquired in the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urban, Frank E.; Clow, Gary D.

2014-01-01

This report provides data collected by the climate monitoring array of the U.S. Department of the Interior on Federal lands in Arctic Alaska over the period August 1998 to July 2013; this array is part of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost, (DOI/GTN-P). In addition to presenting data, this report also describes monitoring, data collection, and quality-control methods. This array of 16 monitoring stations spans lat 68.5°N. to 70.5°N. and long 142.5°W. to 161°W., an area of approximately 150,000 square kilometers. Climate summaries are presented along with quality-controlled data. Data collection is ongoing and includes the following climate- and permafrost-related variables: air temperature, wind speed and direction, ground temperature, soil moisture, snow depth, rainfall totals, up- and downwelling shortwave radiation, and atmospheric pressure. These data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in close collaboration with the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

DOI/GTN-P Climate and active-layer data acquired in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 1998–2014

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urban, Frank E.; Clow, Gary D.

2016-03-04

This report provides data collected by the climate monitoring array of the U.S. Department of the Interior on Federal lands in Arctic Alaska over the period August 1998 to July 2014; this array is part of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (DOI/GTN-P). In addition to presenting data, this report also describes monitoring, data collection, and quality-control methods. The array of 16 monitoring stations spans lat 68.5°N. to 70.5°N. and long 142.5°W. to 161°W., an area of approximately 150,000 square kilometers. Climate summaries are presented along with quality-controlled data. Data collection is ongoing and includes the following climate- and permafrost-related variables: air temperature, wind speed and direction, ground temperature, soil moisture, snow depth, rainfall totals, up- and downwelling shortwave radiation, and atmospheric pressure. These data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in close collaboration with the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

DOI/GTN-P Climate and active-layer data acquired in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 1998–2015

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urban, Frank E.; Clow, Gary D.

2017-02-06

This report provides data collected by the climate monitoring array of the U.S. Department of the Interior on Federal lands in Arctic Alaska over the period August 1998 to July 2015; this array is part of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (DOI/GTN-P). In addition to presenting data, this report also describes monitoring, data collection, and quality-control methods. The array of 16 monitoring stations spans lat 68.5°N. to 70.5°N. and long 142.5°W. to 161°W., an area of approximately 150,000 square kilometers. Climate summaries are presented along with quality-controlled data. Data collection is ongoing and includes the following climate- and permafrost-related variables: air temperature, wind speed and direction, ground temperature, soil moisture, snow depth, rainfall totals, up- and downwelling shortwave radiation, and atmospheric pressure. These data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in close collaboration with the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

DOI/GTN-P climate and active-layer data acquired in the National Petroleum Reserve: Alaska and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 1998-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Urban, Frank E.; Clow, Gary D.

2014-01-01

This report provides data collected by the climate monitoring array of the U.S. Department of the Interior on Federal lands in Arctic Alaska over the period August 1998 to July 2011; this array is part of the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost, (DOI/GTN-P). In addition to presenting data, this report also describes monitoring, data collection, and quality-control methodology. This array of 16 monitoring stations spans lat 68.5°N. to 70.5°N. and long 142.5°W. to 161°W., an area of approximately 150,000 square kilometers. Climate summaries are presented along with quality-controlled data. Data collection is ongoing and includes the following climate- and permafrost-related variables: air temperature, wind speed and direction, ground temperature and soil moisture, snow depth, rainfall, up- and downwelling shortwave radiation, and atmospheric pressure. These data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in close collaboration with the Bureau of Land Management and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.

PaleoGeo: a Web based GIS database for paleoenvironmental studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Wonsuh; Kondo, Yasuhisa; Oguchi, Takashi

2014-05-01

Paleoenvironmental studies cover various fields such as paleohydrology, geomorphology, paleooceanology, paleobiology, paleoclimatology, and chronology. It is difficult for an individual researcher to collect and compile enormous data regarding these fields. We have been compiling portal data and presenting them using a web-based geographical information system (Web-GIS) called PaleoGeo for the multidisciplinary project 'Replacement of Neanderthals by Modern Humans'. The aim of the project is to reconstruct the distribution of Neanderthals and modern humans in time and space in relation to past climate change. We have been collecting information from almost three thousand articles of 13 journals regarding paleoenvironmental research (i.e., Boreas, Catena, Climatic Change, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Geomorphology, Journal of Quaternary Science, Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, and Palaeoecology, Quaternary International, Quaternary Research, Quaternary Science Reviews, The Holocene, and The Journal of Geology). The topics of the articles were classified into six themes (paleohydrology, earth surface processes and materials, paleooceanology, paleobiology, palaeoclimatology, and chronology) and 19 subthemes (hydrology, flood, fluvial, glacier, fluvial/glacier, sedimentology, soil, slope process, periglacial, peat land, eolian, sea-level, biology, vegetation, zoology, vegetation/zoology, archaeology, climate, atmosphere, and chronology). The collected data consist of the journal name, information about each paper (authors, title, volume, year, and page numbers), site location (country name, longitude, and latitude), theme, subtheme, keywords, DOI (Digital Object Identifier), and period (era). Location data are indispensable for paleoenvironmental studies. The PaleoGeo shows information with a map, which is an advantage of this database system. However, the number of the paleoenvironmental studies is growing rapidly and we have to effectively cover them as many as possible. We plan to simplify the input data (latitude, longitude, title and DOI only) to include more publications. So far information about >7500 sites has been collected and the number is increasing. The collected data are accessible via the internet (http://neangis.csis.u-tokyo.ac.jp/paleogeo/).

Using long-term lysimeter data to analyze hydrological trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puetz, Thomas; Hendricks-Franssen, Harrie-Jan; Roesseler, Anne-Kathrin; Vereecken, Harry

2014-05-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a major component of the terrestrial water cycle. Recent studies based on analysis of experimental and observations-based data have shown that over the last decades the magnitude of evapotranspiration (both potential and actual) has been affected by global climate change although the sign and size of the change in ET differ strongly between regions around the globe, as well as between datasets (e.g. Teuling et al. 2009, Jung et al. 2010, Sheffield et al. 2012). Basically, there are two approaches that are available to measure actual evapotranspiration in situ (e.g. Seneviratne et al. 2010): the measurement from micrometeorological approaches (in particular the Eddy Covariance method) and the determination of evapotranspiration by measuring the components of the soil water balance. Evett et al. (2012) showed that Eddy Covariance measurements of actual evapotranspiration obtained in irrigated cotton fields was 31 to 45% lower than estimates obtained from soil water balance measurements using lysimeters. Forcing the closure of the energy balance with more data than typically available at EC stations, the difference was still about 17%. Despite the fact that lysimeter systems, especially the weighing based systems, are ideal tools to determine actual evapotranspiration no global assessment has been made of available data at present that might be valuable to assess the impact of climate change on actual evapotranspiration. A screening of literature showed that many data are either not reported or made available through research reports rather than peer reviewed literature. Typically lysimeter studies have been used for well-designed experimental studies for the assessment of flow and transport processes in cropped systems that were limited in time. Still at present, we have lysimeter systems operational that have long term time series available on soil hydrological fluxes. Recently, a few studies were reported that analyzed long term series of actual evapotranspiration derived from lysimeter measurements at specific locations. Observed water storage changes, and evaporative and drainage fluxes in lysimeter systems combined with mathematical modeling of the soil water balance may help to separate climate forcing from management. Evett, S.R., et al., 2012. Can weighing lysimeter et represent surrounding field et well enough to test flux station measurements of daily and sub-daily et? Adv. Water Resour. 50:79-90. Jung, M., et al., 2010. Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply. Nature 467:951-954. Seneviratne, S.I., et al., 2010: Investigating soil moisture-climate interactions in a changing climate: A review. Earth-Science Reviews, 99, 3-4, 125-161, doi:10.1016/j.earscirev.2010.02.004. Sheffield, J., et al., 2012. Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature, 491, 435-438. Teuling, A.J., et al., 2009: A regional perspective on trends in continental evaporation. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L02404, doi:10.1029/2008GL036584.

Temperature data acquired from the DOI/GTN-P Deep Borehole Array on the Arctic Slope of Alaska, 1973-2013

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clow, Gary D.

2014-01-01

System (GTOS). The data will also be useful for refining our basic understanding of the physical conditions in permafrost in Arctic Alaska, as well as providing important information for validating predictive models used for climate impact assessments. The processed data are available from the Advanced Cooperative Arctic Data and Information Service (ACADIS) repository at doi:10.5065/D6N014HK.

A dichotomy in primary marine organic aerosol-cloud-climate system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceburnis, D.; Ovadnevaite, J.; Martucci, G.; Bialek, J.; Monahan, C.; Rinaldi, M.; Facchini, C.; Berresheim, H.; Worsnop, D. R.; O'Dowd, C.

2011-12-01

D. Ceburnis1, J. Ovadnevaite1, G. Martucci1, J. Bialek1, C. Monahan1, M. Rinaldi2, M. C. Facchini2, H. Berresheim1, D. R. Worsnop3,4 and C. D. O'Dowd1 1School of Physics & Centre for Climate and Air Pollution Studies, National University of Ireland Galway, University Road, Galway, Ireland 2Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council, Bologna, 20129, Italy. 3 Aerodyne Research, Inc., 45 Manning Road, Billerica, MA 01821-3976, USA 4 Physics Department, University of Helsinki, P.O. Box 64, 00014, Helsinki, Finland Organic matter has been observed to significantly contribute to particulate matter in every environment including pristine remote oceans. A significant if not dominant contribution of insoluble organic matter to marine aerosol has been proved to be of biogenic origin1,2. High time resolution measurements of marine organic matter have demonstrated a dynamic system with regular organic matter plume events occurring during summer3 as well as frequent open ocean particle formation events4. High-time resolution measurements of primary marine organic sea-spray physico-chemical properties reveal an apparent dichotomous behavior in terms of water uptake: specifically sea-spray aerosol enriched in organic matter possesses a low hygroscopic Growth Factor (GF~1.25) while simultaneously having a cloud condensation nucleus/condensation nuclei (CCN/CN) activation efficiency of between 83% at 0.25% supersaturation and 100% at 0.75%5. Simultaneous retrieval of Cloud Droplet Number Concentration (CDNC) during primary organic aerosol plumes reveal CDNC concentrations of 350 cm-3 in newly formed marine stratocumulus cloud for boundary layer organic mass concentrations of 3-4 ug m-36. It is suggested that marine hydrogels are responsible for this dichotomous behavior which has profound impacts to aerosol-cloud-climate system along with a better understood process analysis of aerosol formation by sea-spray7. A hydrophobic character of organic matter dominated aerosol in sub-saturated conditions should have significant implications for direct radiative effect while effectively forming cloud condensation nuclei should have significant contribution to indirect effect. 1 O'Dowd, C. D. et al. Nature 431, 676-680, doi:10.1038/Nature02959 (2004). 2 Ceburnis, D. et al. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. 11, 2749-2772, doi:doi:10.5194/acpd-11-2749-2011 (2011). 3 Ovadnevaite, J. et al. Geophys Res Lett 38, L02807, doi:10.1029/2010gl046083 (2011). 4 O'Dowd, C., et al. Geophys Res Lett 37, doi:L19805 10.1029/2010gl044679 (2010). 5 Ovadnevaite, J. et al. Geophys Res Lett (2011). 6 Martucci, G. and O'Dowd, C. D. Atmos. Meas. Tech. Discuss., 4, 4825-4865, doi:10.5194/amtd-4-4825-2011 (2011) 7 Gantt, B. et al. Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss. 11, 10525-10555, doi:10.5194/acpd-11-10525-2011 (2011).

An Analysis of the Potential Impact of Climate Change on Dengue Transmission in the Southeastern United States

PubMed Central

Butterworth, Melinda K.; Morin, Cory W.; Comrie, Andrew C.

2016-01-01

Background: Dengue fever, caused by a mosquito-transmitted virus, is an increasing health concern in the Americas. Meteorological variables such as temperature and precipitation can affect disease distribution and abundance through biophysical impacts on the vector and on the virus. Such tightly coupled links may facilitate further spread of dengue fever under a changing climate. In the southeastern United States, the dengue vector is widely established and exists on the current fringe of dengue transmission. Objectives: We assessed projected climate change–driven shifts in dengue transmission risk in this region. Methods: We used a dynamic mosquito population and virus transmission model driven by meteorological data to simulate Aedes aegypti populations and dengue cases in 23 locations in the southeastern United States under current climate conditions and future climate projections. We compared estimates for each location with simulations based on observed data from San Juan, Puerto Rico, where dengue is endemic. Results: Our simulations based on current climate data suggest that dengue transmission at levels similar to those in San Juan is possible at several U.S. locations during the summer months, particularly in southern Florida and Texas. Simulations that include climate change projections suggest that conditions may become suitable for virus transmission in a larger number of locations and for a longer period of time during each year. However, in contrast with San Juan, U.S. locations would not sustain year-round dengue transmission according to our model. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that Dengue virus (DENV) transmission is limited by low winter temperatures in the mainland United States, which are likely to prevent its permanent establishment. Although future climate conditions may increase the length of the mosquito season in many locations, projected increases in dengue transmission are limited to the southernmost locations. Citation: Butterworth MK, Morin CW, Comrie AC. 2017. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the southeastern United States. Environ Health Perspect 125:579–585; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP218 PMID:27713106

An observationally centred method to quantify local climate change as a distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stainforth, David; Chapman, Sandra; Watkins, Nicholas

2013-04-01

For planning and adaptation, guidance on trends in local climate is needed at the specific thresholds relevant to particular impact or policy endeavours. This requires quantifying trends at specific quantiles in distributions of variables such as daily temperature or precipitation. These non-normal distributions vary both geographically and in time. The trends in the relevant quantiles may not simply follow the trend in the distribution mean. We present a method[1] for analysing local climatic timeseries data to assess which quantiles of the local climatic distribution show the greatest and most robust trends. We demonstrate this approach using E-OBS gridded data[2] timeseries of local daily temperature from specific locations across Europe over the last 60 years. Our method extracts the changing cumulative distribution function over time and uses a simple mathematical deconstruction of how the difference between two observations from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change. This deconstruction facilitates an assessment of the sensitivity of different quantiles of the distributions to changing climate. Geographical location and temperature are treated as independent variables, we thus obtain as outputs how the trend or sensitivity varies with temperature (or occurrence likelihood), and with geographical location. These sensitivities are found to be geographically varying across Europe; as one would expect given the different influences on local climate between, say, Western Scotland and central Italy. We find as an output many regionally consistent patterns of response of potential value in adaptation planning. We discuss methods to quantify the robustness of these observed sensitivities and their statistical likelihood. This also quantifies the level of detail needed from climate models if they are to be used as tools to assess climate change impact. [1] S C Chapman, D A Stainforth, N W Watkins, 2013, On Estimating Local Long Term Climate Trends, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, in press [2] Haylock, M.R., N. Hofstra, A.M.G. Klein Tank, E.J. Klok, P.D. Jones and M. New. 2008: A European daily high-resolution gridded dataset of surface temperature and precipitation. J. Geophys. Res (Atmospheres), 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD10201

Constraining 20th Century Pacific Trade-Wind Variability Using Coral Mn/Ca

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayani, H. R.; Thompson, D. M.; Carilli, J.; Ireland, T. J.; Cobb, K. M.; Atwood, A. R.; Grothe, P. R.; Miller, S. J.; Hitt, N. T.; O'Connor, G.

2017-12-01

Global mean surface temperatures during the 20th century are characterized by multidecadal periods of either accelerated or reduced rates of warming that cannot be explained by external forcings alone. Both observations and modeling studies suggest that the reduced rate of global surface warming during the early-2000s can be largely explained by decadal climate variability in the tropical Pacific, specifically changes in trade-wind strength [e.g. Meehl et al., 2016]. However, the relationship between Pacific trade-wind strength and global surface warming is poorly constrained due to the lack of instrumental wind observations prior to the 1970s. Surface corals are now routinely used to generate records of past sea-surface temperature (SST) change, and have dramatically improved our understanding of oceanic variability in the tropical Pacific. Yet, there are few direct measurements of the atmospheric response to this SST variability. Skeletal Mn/Ca ratios in corals from Tarawa Atoll (1.3˚N, 173˚E) have been shown to track El Niño-related westerly wind events on interannual timescales [Shen et al., 1992], and the strength of Pacific trade winds on decadal timescales [Thompson et al., 2015]. Here, we investigate the utility of this novel wind proxy at Kiritimati Atoll (Christmas Island; 2˚N, 157.5˚W), a site that is hydrographically similar to Tarawa. We use a series of seawater samples collected across the 2015/16 El Niño to characterize and quantify the relationship between westerly wind events and seawater Mn variability around Kiritimati. Anchored by this modern-day calibration, we present a new reconstruction of westerly winds across the late-20thcentury from Kiritimati Atoll. We also assess the reproducibility of coral Mn/Ca across cores collected at varying distances from the lagoon, which represents the primary source of seawater Mn to the reef at our site. Lastly, we discuss the strengths and limitations of this novel proxy, as well as the potential for its application to corals from other sites across the tropical Pacific. ReferencesMeehl, et al., (2016), Nature Climate change, doi:10.1038/nclimate3107. Shen, et al., (1992), J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, doi:10.1029/92JC00951. Thompson, et al., (2015), Nature Geoscience, doi:10.1038/ngeo2321.

Soil development as limiting factor for shrub expansion in southwestern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caviezel, Chatrina; Hunziker, Matthias; Zoller, Oliver; Wüthrich, Christoph; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.

2014-05-01

Southern Greenland currently experiences an increase in summer temperatures and a prolonged growing season (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2012), resulting in an increased shrub cover at the boreal - tundra border ecotone (Normand et al. 2013). These findings suggest the beginning of a greener Greenland in which tundra vegetation is transformed to a boreal woody flora. However, vegetation at borderline ecotones is influenced by further ecologic factors than just temperature. In this study, the ecologic conditions at a selection of sites along an elevation gradient near Igaliku in southern Greenland were examined to identify potential factors limiting the expansion of woody vegetation apart from temperature. The sites differ in elevation, topography, shrub density and soil parent material. The three study sites comprise i) well established birch shrubs growing between 50 and 180 m a.s.l., where the parent material origins from the Julianehab granite (Brooks 2012); ii) extended shrub patches at about 250 m a.s.l., where the parent material consists of Gardar Sandstones and Lavas (Brooks 2012) and iii) restricted shrub patches at an elevation of 250 m a.s.l., where the soil parent material originates from the Gardar intrusions (Brooks 2012). The extent of the shrub areas, topography and soil moisture were mapped, additionally soil samples were analyzed for C-and N-content, texture including coarse fraction and pH and used as soil development indicators. Our results show that the topographic setting regulates the existence or absence of soil while the soil parent material is an important limiting factor for soil moisture. According to these findings, we suggest that a high proportion of areas where temperature increase would allow the increase of shrub cover is not suitable for a woody flora. Brooks, Kent. 2012. "A Tale of Two Intrusions—where Familiar Rock Names No Longer Suffice." Geology Today 28 (1): 13-19. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2451.2012.00815.x. Masson-Delmotte, V., D. Swingedouw, A. Landais, M. S. Seidenkrantz, E. Gauthier, V. Bichet, C. Massa, B. Perren, V. Jomelli, and G. Adalgeirsdottir. 2012. "Greenland Climate Change: From the Past to the Future." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.186/full. Normand, Signe, Christophe Randin, Ralf Ohlemüller, Christian Bay, Toke T. Høye, Erik D. Kjær, Christian Körner, et al. 2013. "A Greener Greenland? Climatic Potential and Long-Term Constraints on Future Expansions of Trees and Shrubs." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 368 (1624) (August 19): 20120479. doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0479.

A Paradigm shift to an Old Scheme for Outgoing Longwave Radiation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDonald, Alastair B.

2016-04-01

There are many cases where the climate models do not agree with the empirical data. For instance, the data from radiosondes (and MSUs) do not show the amount of warming in the upper troposphere that is predicted by the models (Thorne et al. 2011). The current scheme for outgoing longwave radiation can be traced back to the great 19th Century French mathematician J-B Joseph Fourier. His anachronistic idea was that the radiation balance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is maintained by the conduction of heat from the surface (Fourier 1824). It was based on comparing the atmosphere to the 18th Century Swiss scientist H-B de Saussure's hotbox which he had invented to show that solar radiation is only slightly absorbed by the atmosphere. Saussure also showed that thermal radiation existed and argued that the warmth of the air near the surface of the Earth is due to absorption of that infra red radiation (Saussure 1786). Hence a paradigm shift to Saussure's scheme, where the thermal radiation is absorbed at the base of the atmosphere, rather than throughout the atmosphere as in Fourier's scheme, may solve many climate models problems. In this new paradigm the boundary layer continually exchanges radiation with the surface. Thus only at two instants during the day is there no net gain or loss of heat by the boundary layer from the surface, and so that layer is not in LTE. Moreover, since the absorption of outgoing longwave radiation is saturated within the boundary layer, it has little influence on the TOA balance. That balance is mostly maintained by changes in albedo, e.g. clouds and ice sheets. Use of this paradigm can explain why the excess warming in south western Europe was caused by water vapour close to the surface (Philipona et al. 2005), and may also explain why there are difficulties in closing the surface radiation balance (Wild et al. 2013) and in modelling abrupt climate change (White et al. 2013). References: Fourier, Joseph. 1824. 'Remarques Générales Sur Les Températures Du Globe Terrestre Et Des Espaces Planétaires.' Annales de Chimie et de Physique 27: 136-67, translated by Raymond T. Pierrehumbert http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v432/n7018/extref/432677a-s1.pdf Philipona, Rolf, Bruno Dürr, Atsumu Ohmura, and Christian Ruckstuhl. 2005. 'Anthropogenic Greenhouse Forcing and Strong Water Vapor Feedback Increase Temperature in Europe'. Geophysical Research Letters 32 (19): L19809. doi:10.1029/2005GL023624. Saussure, Horace-Benedict de. 1786. 'Chapter XXXV. Des Causes du Froid qui Regne sur les Montagnes'. In Voyages dans les Alpes, II:347-71. Neuchatel: Fauche-Borel. http://gallica.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/bpt6k1029499.r=.langFR, translated by Alastair B. McDonald, http://www.abmcdonald.freeserve.co.uk/saussure/CHAPTER%2035.pdf. Thorne, Peter W., Philip Brohan, Holly A. Titchner, et al. 2011. 'A Quantification of Uncertainties in Historical Tropical Tropospheric Temperature Trends from Radiosondes'. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 116 (D12): n/a - n/a. doi:10.1029/2010JD015487. Wild, Martin, Doris Folini, Christoph Schär, et al. 2013. 'The Global Energy Balance from a Surface Perspective'. Climate Dynamics 40 (11-12): 3107-34. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1569-8. White, James W.C., Alley, Richard B., Archer, David E., et al. 2013. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises. Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/18373.

Evaluation of three different data fusion approaches that uses satellite soil moisture from different passive microwave sensors to construct one consistent climate record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Schalie, Robin; de Jeu, Richard; Kerr, Yann; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre; Rodríguez-Fernández, Nemesio; Al-Yaari, Amen; Drusch, Matthias; Mecklenburg, Susanne; Dolman, Han

2016-04-01

Datasets that are derived from satellite observations are becoming increasingly important for measuring key parameters of the Earth's climate and are therefore crucial in research on climate change, giving the opportunity to researchers to detect anomalies and long-term trends globally. One of these key parameters is soil moisture (SM), which has a large impact on water, energy and biogeochemical cycles worldwide. A long-term SM data record from active and passive microwave satellite observations was developed as part of ESA's Climate Change Initiative (ESA-CCI-SM, http://www.esa-soilmoisture-cci.org/). Currently the dataset covers a period from 1978 to 2014 and is updated regularly, observations from a several microwave satellites including: ERS-1, ERS-2, METOP-A, Nimbus 7 SMMR, DMSP SSM/I, TRMM TMI, Aqua AMSRE, Coriolis WindSat, and GCOM-W1 AMSR2. In 2009, ESA launched the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS, Kerr et al., 2010) mission, carrying onboard a unique L-band radiometer, but its SM retrievals are not yet part of this dataset. Due to the different radiometric characteristics of SMOS, integrating SMOS into the ESA-CCI-SM dataset is not straight forward. Therefore several approaches have been tested to fuse soil moisture retrievals from SMOS and AMSRE, which currently forms the basis of the passive microwave part within ESA-CCI-SM project. These approaches are: 1. A Neural Network Fusion approach (Rodríguez-Fernández et al., 2015), 2. A regression approach (Wigneron et al., 2004; Al-Yaari et al., 2015) and 3. A radiative transfer based approach, using the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (Van der Schalie et al., 2016). This study evaluates the three different approaches and tests their skills against multiple datasets, including MERRA-Land, ERA-Interim/Land, the current ESA-CCI-SM v2.2 and in situ measurements from the International Soil Moisture Network and present a recommendation for the potential integration of SMOS soil moisture into the ESA-CCI-SM dataset. This recommendation is based on a series of statistical metrics (i.e. correlation, unbiased root mean square error, bias, spatial correspondence and single to noise ratios (Gruber et al., 2015)) and will provide guidelines for a seamless integration. References Al-Yaari, A., Wigneron, J.P., Kerr, Y., De Jeu, R.A.M., Rodriguez-Fernandez, N., Van der Schalie, R., Al Bitar, A., Mialon, A., Richaume, P., Dolman, A., and Ducharne, A. (2015), "Testing regression equations to derive long-term global soil moisture datasets from passive microwave observations", Remote Sensing of Environment, IN PRESS. Gruber, A., Su, C.-H., Zwieback, S., Crowd, W., Dorigo, W., and Wagner, W. (2015), "Recent advances in (soil moisture) triple collocation analysis", Int. J. Appl. Earth Observ. Geoinf, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2015.09.002. Kerr, Y.H., Waldteufel, P., Wigneron, J.P., Delwart, S., Cabot, F., Boutin, J., Escorihuela, M.J., Font, J., Reul, N., Gruhier, C., Juglea, S.E., Drinkwater, M.R., Hahne, A., Martin-Neira, M., and Mecklenburg, S. (2010), "The SMOS mission: New tool for monitoring key elements of the global water cycle", Proceedings of the IEEE, vol. 98, no. 5, doi: 10.1109/JPROC.2010.2043043. Rodríguez-Fernández, N.J., Aires, F., Richaume, P., Kerr, Y.H., Prigent, C., Kolassa, J., Cabot, F., Jiménez, C., Mahmoodi, A., and Drusch, M. (2015), "Soil Moisture Retrieval Using Neural Networks: Application to SMOS", IEEE Trans. on Geosc. and Remote Sens., vol. 53, no. 11, doi: 10.1109/TGRS.2015.2430845. Van der Schalie, R., Kerr, Y.H., Wigneron, J.P., Rodriguez-Fernandez, N.J., Al-Yaari, A., and De Jeu, R.A.M. (2015), "Global SMOS Soil Moisture Retrievals from The Land Parameter Retrieval Model", Int. J. Appl. Earth Observ. Geoinf, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2015.08.005. Wigneron J.-P., Calvet, J.-C., De Rosnay, P., Kerr, Y., Waldteufel, P., Saleh, K., Escorihuela, M.J. and Kruszewski, A. (2004), "Soil Moisture Retrievals from Bi-Angular L-band Passive Microwave Observations", IEEE Trans. Geosc. Remote Sens. Let., vol. 1, no. 4, pp. 277-281.

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Western Region: Alaska Coastal and Ocean Science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland-Bartels, Leslie

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), a bureau of the Department of the Interior (DOI), is the Nation's largest water, earth, and biological science and mapping agency. The bureau's science strategy 'Facing Tomorrow's Challenges - U.S. Geological Survey Science in the Decade 2007-2017' describes the USGS vision for its science in six integrated areas of societal concern: Understanding Ecosystems and Predicting Ecosystem Change; Climate Variability and Change; Energy and Minerals; Hazards, Risk, and Resilience; Environment and Wildlife in Human Health; and Water Census of the United States. USGS has three Regions that encompass nine geographic Areas. This fact sheet describes examples of USGS science conducted in coastal, nearshore terrestrial, and ocean environments in the Alaska Area.

The influence of stratospheric dynamics on the forcing efficacy of tropical volcanic SO2 injection: a case study around the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dhomse, Sandip; Mann, Graham; Marshall, Lauren; Schmidt, Anja; Carslaw, Kenneth; Chipperfield, Martyn; Bellouin, Nicolas; Morgenstern, Olaf; Johnson, Colin; O'Connor, Fiona

2016-04-01

Major tropical volcanic eruptions exert significant climate impacts principally via enhanced scattering of solar radiation due to the injected SO2 elevating particle concentrations in the stratospheric aerosol layer. The size distribution of stratospheric aerosol particles also shifts to larger sizes in volcanically-enhanced conditions, which promotes absorption and subsequent stratospheric heating as well as causing faster sedimentation. How the volcanic sulphur cloud is dispersed also strongly affects the longevity of its radiative effects. In this presentation we investigate the role of stratospheric dynamical variability in affecting the temporal evolution of the volcanic aerosol, and also its feedback on subsequent chemical and dynamical ozone changes. Among various processes, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), the dominant mode of dynamical variability in the tropical stratosphere, is known to play a key role in determining the meridional dispersion of the volcanic cloud generated by major tropical eruptions. We have carried out a series of interactive stratospheric aerosol simulations with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model, to explore how different QBO phase impact volcanic radiative forcing, with a test case based around Mount Pinatubo. We will present results from an ensemble of simulations for different easterly and westerly phases of QBO, comparing simulated stratospheric aerosol properties (e.g. extinction, AOD, effective radius, particle size distribution) against a range of satellite and in-situ observational datasets. Changes in dynamics and temperatures would be compared against reanalysis (e.g. ERA-interim, HaDCRUT4) datasets followed by an analysis of radiative and dynamical changes for contrasting phases of QBO. References: Dhomse SS, Chipperfield MP, Feng W, Hossaini R, Mann GW, Santee ML (2015) Revisiting the hemispheric asymmetry in midlatitude ozone changes following the Mount Pinatubo eruption: A 3-D model study, Geophysical Research Letters, 42, pp.3038-3047. doi: 10.1002/2015GL063052 Dhomse SS, Emmerson KM, Mann GW, Bellouin N, Carslaw KS, Chipperfield MP, Hommel R, Abraham NL, Telford P, Braesicke P, Dalvi M, Johnson CE, O'Connor F, Morgenstern O, Pyle JA, Deshler T, Zawodny JM, Thomason LW (2014) Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.˜Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 14, pp.11221-11246. doi: 10.5194/acp-14-11221-2014

Paleogeographic Control on Climate Sensitivity of the Cretaceous-Palaeogene-Eocene.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farnsworth, A.; Lunt, D. J.; Robinson, S.; O'Brien, C. L.; Pancost, R.

2016-12-01

Just how sensitive are warm climates of the past (Cretaceous-Eocene-Palaeogene (CPE)) to atmospheric carbon dioxide (pCO2) concentrations. We present an ensemble [1] of 21 climate model simulations spanning the CPE at both 560ppm and 1120ppm using state of the art paleogeographies (GETECH Plc. [1]), to ascertain how sensitive warm climates of the past are to pCO2. We find depending on the time period in the CPE, a doubling of pCO2results in a 2-3°C increase in SST and a 3-5°C increase in surface air temperature. We analyse the reasons behind the varying climate sensitivity, and the geographical distribution of warming, including some of the periods with regions of cooling (figure 1) and how this may help inform future climate change. Further to this we construct a model derived CO2 curve through the CPE based on avaliable proxy-data. Figure 1 - Mean surface annual surface temperature (°C) anomaly (4 x Pre-Industrial pCO2 (1120ppm) minus 2 x Pre-Industrial pCO2(560ppm)) in the Ypresian ( 52 Myr). [1] Lunt, D. J., Farnsworth, A., Loptson, C., Foster, G. L., Markwick, P., O'Brien, C. L., Pancost, R. D., Robinson, S. A., and Wrobel, N.: Palaeogeographic controls on climate and proxy interpretation, Clim. Past Discuss., 11, 5683-5725, doi:10.5194/cpd-11-5683-2015, 2015.

Stress Variation Caused by the Terrestrial Water Storage Inferred from GRACE Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, H.; Wen, L.

2014-12-01

We estimate stress variation caused by the terrestrial water storage (TWS) change from 2003 to 2013. We first infer the TWS change from the monthly gravity field change in the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). We then estimate the stress change at the Earth's surface caused by elastic loading of mass change associated with the inferred TWS change.The monthly spherical harmonics of the GRACE gravity solutions are processed using a decorrelation filter and Gaussian smoothing, to suppress the noise in high degree and order, following the approach of Swenson and Wahr [2006] and Chen et al. [2007]. The gravity variation associated with the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is further removed from the GRACE solutions based on a geodynamical model by Paulson et al. [2007]. The inferred TWS changes exhibit a trend of increase from 2003 to 2013 in Amazon basin, southern Africa, the northern United State America (USA) and Queen Maud Land of Antarctica, and a trend of decrease in the same period in central Argentina, southern Chile, northern India, northern Iran, Alaska of the USA, Greenland and Marie Byrd Land of Antarctica.Surface stress variation due to the TWS loading is calculated, assuming an incompressible and self-gravitating Earth, with an elastic crust and a viscoelastic mantle overlying an inviscid core based on PREM model. We will present the geographical distribution of the stress variation caused by the TWS loading and discuss its possible implications. Chen, J. L., C. R. Wilson, B. D. Tapley, and S. Grand (2007), GRACE detects coseismic and postseismic deformation from the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake, Geophys Res Lett, 34(13), doi:10.1029/2007GL030356. Paulson, A., S. J. Zhong, and J. Wahr (2007), Inference of mantle viscosity from GRACE and relative sea level data, Geophys J Int, 171(2), 497-508, doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03556.x. Swenson, S., and J. Wahr (2006), Post-processing removal of correlated errors in GRACE data, Geophys Res Lett, 33(8), doi:10.1029/2005GL025285.

Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao

2017-04-01

Atmospheric evaporative demand plays a pivotal role in global water and energy budgets and its change is very important for drought monitoring, irrigation scheduling and water resource management under a changing environment. Here, we first projected and attributed future changes of pan evaporation (E_pan), a measurable indictor for atmospheric evaporative demand, over China through a physical- based approach, namely PenPan model, forced with outputs form twelve state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models. An equidistant quantile mapping method was also used to correct the biases in GCMs outputs to reduce uncertainty in〖 E〗_pan projection. The results indicated that the E_panwould increase during the periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 relative to the baseline period 1971-2000 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which can mainly be attributed to the projected increase in air temperature and vapour pressure deficit over China. The percentage increase of E_pan is relatively larger in eastern China than that in western China, which is due to the spatially inconsistent increases in air temperature, net radiation, wind speed and vapour pressure deficit over China. The widely reported "pan evaporation paradox" was not well reproduced for the period 1961-2000 in the climate models, before or after bias correction, suggesting discrepancy between observed and modeled trends. With that caveat, we found that the pan evaporation has been projected to increase at a rate of 117 167 mm/yr per K (72 80 mm/yr per K) over China using the multiple GCMs under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) scenario with increased greenhouse gases and the associated warming of the climate system. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1

Empirical Investigation of Critical Transitions in Paleoclimate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loskutov, E. M.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Feigin, A.

2016-12-01

In this work we apply a new empirical method for the analysis of complex spatially distributed systems to the analysis of paleoclimate data. The method consists of two general parts: (i) revealing the optimal phase-space variables and (ii) construction the empirical prognostic model by observed time series. The method of phase space variables construction based on the data decomposition into nonlinear dynamical modes which was successfully applied to global SST field and allowed clearly separate time scales and reveal climate shift in the observed data interval [1]. The second part, the Bayesian approach to optimal evolution operator reconstruction by time series is based on representation of evolution operator in the form of nonlinear stochastic function represented by artificial neural networks [2,3]. In this work we are focused on the investigation of critical transitions - the abrupt changes in climate dynamics - in match longer time scale process. It is well known that there were number of critical transitions on different time scales in the past. In this work, we demonstrate the first results of applying our empirical methods to analysis of paleoclimate variability. In particular, we discuss the possibility of detecting, identifying and prediction such critical transitions by means of nonlinear empirical modeling using the paleoclimate record time series. The study is supported by Government of Russian Federation (agreement #14.Z50.31.0033 with the Institute of Applied Physics of RAS). 1. Mukhin, D., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., Loskutov, E., & Kurths, J. (2015). Principal nonlinear dynamical modes of climate variability. Scientific Reports, 5, 15510. http://doi.org/10.1038/srep155102. Ya. I. Molkov, D. N. Mukhin, E. M. Loskutov, A.M. Feigin, (2012) : Random dynamical models from time series. Phys. Rev. E, Vol. 85, n.3.3. Mukhin, D., Kondrashov, D., Loskutov, E., Gavrilov, A., Feigin, A., & Ghil, M. (2015). Predicting Critical Transitions in ENSO models. Part II: Spatially Dependent Models. Journal of Climate, 28(5), 1962-1976. http://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00240.1

SM2RAIN-CCI: a new global long-term rainfall data set derived from ESA CCI soil moisture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Brocca, Luca; Gruber, Alexander; Reimer, Christoph; Hahn, Sebastian; Paulik, Christoph; Dorigo, Wouter; Kidd, Richard; Wagner, Wolfgang

2018-02-01

Accurate and long-term rainfall estimates are the main inputs for several applications, from crop modeling to climate analysis. In this study, we present a new rainfall data set (SM2RAIN-CCI) obtained from the inversion of the satellite soil moisture (SM) observations derived from the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) via SM2RAIN (Brocca et al., 2014). Daily rainfall estimates are generated for an 18-year long period (1998-2015), with a spatial sampling of 0.25° on a global scale, and are based on the integration of the ACTIVE and the PASSIVE ESA CCI SM data sets.The quality of the SM2RAIN-CCI rainfall data set is evaluated by comparing it with two state-of-the-art rainfall satellite products, i.e. the Tropical Measurement Mission Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis 3B42 real-time product (TMPA 3B42RT) and the Climate Prediction Center Morphing Technique (CMORPH), and one modeled data set (ERA-Interim). A quality check is carried out on a global scale at 1° of spatial sampling and 5 days of temporal sampling by comparing these products with the gauge-based Global Precipitation Climatology Centre Full Data Daily (GPCC-FDD) product. SM2RAIN-CCI shows relatively good results in terms of correlation coefficient (median value > 0.56), root mean square difference (RMSD, median value < 10.34 mm over 5 days) and bias (median value < -14.44 %) during the evaluation period. The validation has been carried out at original resolution (0.25°) over Europe, Australia and five other areas worldwide to test the capabilities of the data set to correctly identify rainfall events under different climate and precipitation regimes.The SM2RAIN-CCI rainfall data set is freely available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.846259.

MURASOC, a parametric model to test climate change effects on soil organic carbon. Application to Southern Spain (Mediterranean áreas)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parras-Alcántara, Luis; Lozano-García, Beatriz; Brevik, Eric C.; Olaya-Abril, Alfonso; Obregón-Romero, Rafael; Gil Torres, Juan; Recio-Espejo, Jose Manuel

2016-04-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is formed through the decomposition processes of plant, animal and microbial residues, root exudates, living and dead microorganism and soil biota; and is the main energy source for soil microorganism. Consequently, a strong feedback is stablished among a large number of components in the complex biota-abiota network. Likewise, SOC influences in physical, chemical and biological soil properties such as temperature, cationic exchange capacity and plant growth (Parras-Alcántara et al., 2015). Therefore, to improve our knowledge about what soil variables are more responsible of SOC content would be extremely useful in soils characterization. In many studies, independent variables were related to SOC, however, the possible combined effects of different independent variables and their ability to model SOC have not been considered. On the other hand, over the last few decades interest in soil organic carbon (SOC) has increased due to its role in C sequestration in terrestrial ecosystems, which could contribute to decreasing atmospheric CO2 levels (Lozano-García et al., 2016; Fernández-Romero et al., 2016; Parras-Alcántara and Lozano-García 2014). Then, attempts to model SOC content have multiplied over this time. In this study, 612 soil profiles obtained from the Natura 2000 network of protected areas in the Sierra Morena mountains, (Spain) were used with the following objectives: i) To quantify SOC content according to different variables (analytical, morphological, genetic and climatic) in order to define the variables that are most closely related to SOC content; ii) To model the Current SOC content for a geographic area (Sierra Morena - Spain); iii) To model SOC suitability-habitat under a climate change scenario; iv) To extrapolate the SOC content and distribution model to the wider Andalusia region, showing the areas that have a high probability to experience an increase in their SOC content in coming years; and v) To propose effective management in Andalusia's soils according to land use and land cover in protected areas of Sierra Morena and the entire Andalusia region. To this aim, 24 independent variables were obtained and, using a correlation and a multiple linear regression analysis (MURASOC), the effects of these variables on the correlation with SOC content were considered. Indeed, predictor analysis was carried out with the best parameters determined with the regression analysis to be used in a climatic change scenario as predictor variables. The main conclusions of this work could be summarize as: i) Direct relationships between environmental variables and SOC content are similar to described by other authors; ii) In a multiple regression analysis, a poor relationship was observed between the analyzed variables and the SOC content; iii) When SOC content is under study, soil organic fraction (and activity) must be taken into consideration; iv) Similar to described by other authors in living entities under a climatic change scenario, a tend to migration of SOC >2% could be observed in latitude and altitude (it tend to disappear in lower altitudes and southern-oriented slopes; and v) The SOC content will decrease in Sierra Morena under a climatic change scenario, but it would increase in Andalusia under ideal conditions. The information generated in this study might support new strategies in decision-making to complete analyses started long ago, and extend it with new biological and biochemical strategies, as for example, identification of microorganism and relationships among them, with the terrestrial ecosystem and with the SOC synthesis and content. Once that is done, it will provide important information for soil management and climate adaptation strategies. REFERENCES Fernández-Romero, M.L., Parras-Alcántara, L., Lozano-García, B., Clark, J.M., Collins, C.D., 2016. Soil quality assessment based on carbon stratification index in different olive grove management practices in Mediterranean areas. Catena 137; 449-458. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2015.10.019. Lozano-García, B., Parras-Alcántara, L., Brevik, E.C., 2016. Impact of topographic aspect and vegetation (native and reforested areas) on soil organic carbon and nitrogen budgets in Mediterranean natural areas. Science of the Total Environment 544; 963-970. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.022. Parras-Alcántara, L., Lozano-García, B., 2014. Conventional tillage versus organic farming in relation to soil organic carbon stock in olive groves in Mediterranean rangelands (southern Spain). Solid Earth, 5; 299-311. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/se-5-299-2014. Parras-Alcántara, L., Lozano-García, B., Brevik, E.C., Cerdá, A., 2015. Soil organic carbon stocks assessment in Mediterranean natural areas: A comparison of entire soil profiles and soil control sections. Journal of Environmental Management 155; 219-228. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2015.03.039

Understanding extreme rainfall events in Australia through historical data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashcroft, Linden; Karoly, David John

2016-04-01

Historical climate data recovery is still an emerging field in the Australian region. The majority of Australia's instrumental climate analyses begin in 1900 for rainfall and 1910 for temperature, particularly those focussed on extreme event analysis. This data sparsity for the past in turn limits our understanding of long-term climate variability, constraining efforts to predict the impact of future climate change. To address this need for improved historical data in Australia, a new network of recovered climate observations has recently been developed, centred on the highly populated southeastern Australian region (Ashcroft et al., 2014a, 2014b). The dataset includes observations from more than 39 published and unpublished sources and extends from British settlement in 1788 to the formation of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology in 1908. Many of these historical sources provide daily temperature and rainfall information, providing an opportunity to improve understanding of the multidecadal variability of Australia's extreme events. In this study we combine the historical data for three major Australian cities - Melbourne, Sydney and Adelaide - with modern observations to examine extreme rainfall variability over the past 174 years (1839-2013). We first explore two case studies, combining instrumental and documentary evidence to support the occurrence of severe storms in Sydney in 1841 and 1844. These events appear to be at least as extreme as Sydney's modern 24-hour rainfall record. Next we use a suite of rainfall indices to assess the long-term variability of rainfall in southeastern Australia. In particular, we focus on the stationarity of the teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and extreme rainfall events. Using ENSO reconstructions derived from both palaeoclimatic and documentary sources, we determine the historical relationship between extreme rainfall in southeastern Australia and ENSO, and examine whether or not this relationship has remained stable since the early to mid-19th century. Ashcroft, L., Gergis, J., Karoly, D.J., 2014a. A historical climate dataset for southeastern Australia, 1788-1859. Geosci. Data J. 1, 158-178. doi:10.1002/gdj3.19 Ashcroft, L., Karoly, D.J., Gergis, J., 2014b. Southeastern Australian climate variability 1860-2009: A multivariate analysis. Int. J. Climatol. 34, 1928-1944. doi:10.1002/joc.3812

Interpolation and analyses of EURO-Cordex data for the characterization of local and regional climate change impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fink, Manfred; Pfannschmidt, Kai; Knevels, Raphel; Fischer, Christian; Brenning, Alexander

2017-04-01

Decisions on measures for adapting to possible climate impacts are critical at both regional and local levels of authority. Currently, the data from EURO-CORDEX is only provided at resolutions (0.11 and 0.44 degrees) that are sufficient for climate analysis in larger scale regions. Therefore, there is a need for more detailed climate information that can assist decision making at the county and town levels. To tackle this challenge, we have developed a tool for the Just Another Modelling System (JAMS; Kralisch et al. 2007) that produces approx. 50 climate characterizing parameters (e.g. average temperature, ice days, climatic water balance, among others) for different time intervals. This tool is combined within the JAMS environment with the J2000g distributed conceptual hydrological model (Krause and Hanisch 2009) to additionally calculate hydro-meteorological parameters, such as actual evapotranspiration, ground water recharge and runoff generation. The resolution of the data was transformed to a higher resolution (250 m) by applying an inverse distance weights (IDW) interpolation. The IDW was combined with an altitude regression approach using digital elevation model data to represent more detailed information of the land surface. We applied this downscaling approach for the federal state of Thuringia, Germany, which is represented by 371206 model units. An ensemble of 10 different EURO-CORDEX models (0.11 degree resolution) in a time period from 1961 to 2100 and measured data from 1960 to 1990 were analyzed. The climate change impacts were estimated by analyzing the changes between historical periods (1960 - 1990) and future periods (2020 - 2050, 2070 -2100) within the modeled EURO-CORDEX ensemble members. We also improved our interpolation approach by replacing IDW with kriging; this approach was especially an advantage for the interpolation of irregularly distributed measurement stations. The results were used to estimate the effects of climate change for the federal state of Thuringia and to support Thuringian climate-change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Future work will concentrate on bias correction of the ensemble members using the measured data. References Kralisch, S., P. Krause, M. Fink, C. Fischer, and W. Flügel (2007): Component based environmental modelling using the JAMS framework, in Proceedings of the MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, edited by D. Kulasiri and L. Oxley, Christchurch, New Zealand Krause P, Hanisch S (2009): Simulation and analysis of the impact of projected climate change on the spatially distributed water balance in Thuringia, Germany. Adv Geosci 21:33-48. doi:10.5194/adgeo-21-33-2009

New developments on the homogenization of Canadian daily temperature data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vincent, Lucie A.; Wang, Xiaolan L.

2010-05-01

Long-term and homogenized surface air temperature datasets had been prepared for the analysis of climate trends in Canada (Vincent and Gullett 1999). Non-climatic steps due to instruments relocation/changes and changes in observing procedures were identified in the annual mean of the daily maximum and minimum temperatures using a technique based on regression models (Vincent 1998). Monthly adjustments were derived from the regression models and daily adjustments were obtained from an interpolation procedure using the monthly adjustments (Vincent et al. 2002). Recently, new statistical tests have been developed to improve the power of detecting changepoints in climatological data time series. The penalized maximal t (PMT) test (Wang et al. 2007) and the penalized maximal F (PMF) test (Wang 2008b) were developed to take into account the position of each changepoint in order to minimize the effect of unequal and small sample size. A software package RHtestsV3 (Wang and Feng 2009) has also been developed to implement these tests to homogenize climate data series. A recursive procedure was developed to estimate the annual cycle, linear trend, and lag-1 autocorrelation of the base series in tandem, so that the effect of lag-1 autocorrelation is accounted for in the tests. A Quantile Matching (QM) algorithm (Wang 2009) was also developed for adjusting Gaussian daily data so that the empirical distributions of all segments of the detrended series match each other. The RHtestsV3 package was used to prepare a second generation of homogenized temperatures in Canada. Both the PMT test and the PMF test were applied to detect shifts in monthly mean temperature series. Reference series was used in conducting a PMT test. Whenever possible, the main causes of the shifts were retrieved through historical evidence such as the station inspection reports. Finally, the QM algorithm was used to adjust the daily temperature series for the artificial shifts identified from the respective monthly mean series. These procedures were applied to homogenize daily maximum and minimum temperatures recorded at 336 stations across Canada. During the presentation, the procedures will be summarized and their application will be illustrated throughout the provision of selected examples. References Vincent, L.A., X. Zhang, B.R. Bonsal and W.D. Hogg, 2002: Homogenization of daily temperatures over Canada. J. Climate, 15, 1322-1334. Vincent, L.A., and D.W. Gullett, 1999: Canadian historical and homogeneous temperature datasets for climate change analyses. Int. J. Climatol., 19, 1375-1388. Vincent, L.A., 1998: A technique for the identification of inhomogeneities in Canadian temperature series. J. Climate, 11, 1094-1104. Wang, X. L., 2009: A quantile matching adjustment algorithm for Gaussian data series. Climate Research Division, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada. 5 pp. [Available online at http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/software.shtml]. Wang X. L. and Y. Feng, 2009: RHtestsV3 User Manual. Climate Research Division, Atmospheric Science and Technology Directorate, Science and Technology Branch, Environment Canada. 26 pp. [Available online at http://cccma.seos.uvic.ca/ETCCDMI/software.shtml]. Wang, X. L., 2008a: Accounting for autocorrelation in detecting mean-shifts in climate data series using the penalized maximal t or F test. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 47, 2423-2444. Wang, X. L., 2008b: Penalized maximal F-test for detecting undocumented mean-shifts without trend-change. J. Atmos. Oceanic Tech., 25 (No. 3), 368-384. DOI:10.1175/2007/JTECHA982.1. Wang, X. L., Q. H. Wen, and Y. Wu, 2007: Penalized maximal t test for detecting undocumented mean change in climate data series. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 46 (No. 6), 916-931. DOI:10.1175/JAM2504.1

An open-access CMIP5 pattern library for temperature and precipitation: description and methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Cary; Hartin, Corinne; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Kravitz, Ben

2017-05-01

Pattern scaling is used to efficiently emulate general circulation models and explore uncertainty in climate projections under multiple forcing scenarios. Pattern scaling methods assume that local climate changes scale with a global mean temperature increase, allowing for spatial patterns to be generated for multiple models for any future emission scenario. For uncertainty quantification and probabilistic statistical analysis, a library of patterns with descriptive statistics for each file would be beneficial, but such a library does not presently exist. Of the possible techniques used to generate patterns, the two most prominent are the delta and least squares regression methods. We explore the differences and statistical significance between patterns generated by each method and assess performance of the generated patterns across methods and scenarios. Differences in patterns across seasons between methods and epochs were largest in high latitudes (60-90° N/S). Bias and mean errors between modeled and pattern-predicted output from the linear regression method were smaller than patterns generated by the delta method. Across scenarios, differences in the linear regression method patterns were more statistically significant, especially at high latitudes. We found that pattern generation methodologies were able to approximate the forced signal of change to within ≤ 0.5 °C, but the choice of pattern generation methodology for pattern scaling purposes should be informed by user goals and criteria. This paper describes our library of least squares regression patterns from all CMIP5 models for temperature and precipitation on an annual and sub-annual basis, along with the code used to generate these patterns. The dataset and netCDF data generation code are available at doi:10.5281/zenodo.495632.

Long-term vegetation monitoring in Great Britain - the Countryside Survey 1978-2007 and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Claire M.; Smart, Simon M.; Bunce, Robert G. H.; Norton, Lisa R.; Maskell, Lindsay C.; Howard, David C.; Scott, W. Andrew; Henrys, Peter A.

2017-07-01

The Countryside Survey (CS) of Great Britain provides a globally unique series of datasets, consisting of an extensive set of repeated ecological measurements at a national scale, covering a time span of 29 years. CS was first undertaken in 1978 to monitor ecological and land use change in Britain using standardised procedures for recording ecological data from representative 1 km squares throughout the country. The same sites, with some additional squares, were used for subsequent surveys of vegetation undertaken in 1990, 1998 and 2007, with the intention of future surveys. Other data records include soils, freshwater habitats and invertebrates, and land cover and landscape feature diversity and extents. These data have been recorded in the same locations on analogous dates. However, the present paper describes only the details of the vegetation surveys. The survey design is a series of gridded, stratified, randomly selected 1 km squares taken as representative of classes derived from a statistical environmental classification of Britain. In the 1978 survey, 256 one-kilometre sample squares were recorded, increasing to 506 in 1990, 569 in 1998 and 591 in 2007. Initially each square contained up to 11 dispersed vegetation plots but additional plots were later placed in different features so that eventually up to 36 additional sampling plots were recorded, all of which can be relocated where possible (unless the plot has been lost, for example as a consequence of building work), providing a total of 16 992 plots by 2007. Plots are estimated to have a precise relocation accuracy of 85 %. A range of plots located in different land cover types and landscape features (for example, field boundaries) are included. Although a range of analyses have already been carried out, with changes in the vegetation being related to a range of drivers at local and national scales, there is major potential for further analyses, for example in relation to climate change. Although the precise locations of the plots are restricted, largely for reasons of landowner confidentiality, sample sites are intended to be representative of larger areas, and many potential opportunities for further analyses remain. Data from each of the survey years (1978, 1990, 1998, 2007) are available via the following DOIs: Countryside Survey 1978 vegetation plot data (https://doi.org/10.5285/67bbfabb-d981-4ced-b7e7-225205de9c96), Countryside Survey 1990 vegetation plot data (https://doi.org/10.5285/26e79792-5ffc-4116-9ac7-72193dd7f191), Countryside Survey 1998 vegetation plot data (https://doi.org/10.5285/07896bb2-7078-468c-b56d-fb8b41d47065), Countryside Survey 2007 vegetation plot data (https://doi.org/10.5285/57f97915-8ff1-473b-8c77-2564cbd747bc).

Sensitivity of aerosol indirect forcing and autoconversion to cloud droplet parameterization: an assessment with the NASA Global Modeling Initiative.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sotiropoulou, R. P.; Meshkhidze, N.; Nenes, A.

2006-12-01

The aerosol indirect forcing is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in assessments of anthropogenic climate change [IPCC, 2001]. Much of this uncertainty arises from the approach used for linking cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) to precursor aerosol. Global Climate Models (GCM) use a wide range of cloud droplet activation mechanisms ranging from empirical [Boucher and Lohmann, 1995] to detailed physically- based formulations [e.g., Abdul-Razzak and Ghan, 2000; Fountoukis and Nenes, 2005]. The objective of this study is to assess the uncertainties in indirect forcing and autoconversion of cloud water to rain caused by the application of different cloud droplet parameterization mechanisms; this is an important step towards constraining the aerosol indirect effects (AIE). Here we estimate the uncertainty in indirect forcing and autoconversion rate using the NASA Global Model Initiative (GMI). The GMI allows easy interchange of meteorological fields, chemical mechanisms and the aerosol microphysical packages. Therefore, it is an ideal tool for assessing the effect of different parameters on aerosol indirect forcing. The aerosol module includes primary emissions, chemical production of sulfate in clear air and in-cloud aqueous phase, gravitational sedimentation, dry deposition, wet scavenging in and below clouds, and hygroscopic growth. Model inputs include SO2 (fossil fuel and natural), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), mineral dust and sea salt. The meteorological data used in this work were taken from the NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) and two different GCMs: the NASA GEOS4 finite volume GCM (FVGCM) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies version II' (GISS II') GCM. Simulations were carried out for "present day" and "preindustrial" emissions using different meteorological fields (i.e. DAO, FVGCM, GISS II'); cloud droplet number concentration is computed from the correlations of Boucher and Lohmann [1995], Abdul-Razzak and Ghan [2000], Feingold and Heymsfield [1992], Fountoukis and Nenes [2005] and Segal and Khain [2006]. Computed CDNC is used to calculate the cloud optical depth, the autoconversion rate and the mean top-of-the-atmosphere (TOA) short-wave radiative forcing using modified FAST-J algorithm [Meshkhidze et al., 2006]. Autoconversion of cloud water to precipitation is parameterized following the formulation of Khairoutdinov and Kogan [2000]. References Abdul-Razzak, H., and S. J. Ghan (2000), J. Geophys. Res., 105, 6837-6844. Boucher, O., and U. Lohmann (1995), Tellus, Ser. B, 47, 281- 300. Feingold, G. and A. Heymsfield (1992), J. Atmos. Sci., 49, 2325-2342. Fountoukis, C., and A. Nenes (2005), J. Geophys. Res., 110, D11212, doi:10.1029/ 2004JD005591. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - IPCC (2001), Climate Change, The Scientific Basis, Cambridge University Press, UK. Khairoutdinov, M. and Y. Kogan (2000), Mon. Weather Rev., 128 (1), 229-243. Meshkhidze, N., A Nenes, J. Kouatchou, B. Das and J. Rodriguez, 7th International Aerosol Conference, American Association for Aerosol Research (IAC 2006), St. Paul, Minnesota, October 2006 Nenes, A., and J. H. Seinfeld (2003), J. Geophys. Res., 108, 4415, doi:10.1029/ 2002JD002911. Segal, Y., and A. Khain (2006), J. Geophys. Res., 111, D15204, doi:10.1029/2005JD006561.

Spurious Additional Warming Reconstructed From Borehole Temperatures Corrected for the Effect of the Last Glacial Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šafanda, Jan

2018-03-01

Reconstructions of past ground surface temperature changes from temperature logs conducted in several hundred meter deep boreholes have proved to be a valuable independent source of information on climate variations over the last millennium. The reconstruction techniques have been evolving for more than two decades to extract optimally the climate signal of the last millennium contained in the temperature logs of different length performed in sites with different histories of the Last Glacial Cycle. This paper analyzes the method of the Last Glacial Cycle thermal effect removal from such borehole temperature profiles used by Beltrami et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071317) in reconstructing the last 500 year history. I show that the reported results of additional warming in this period reconstructed from the corrected borehole data for North America are an artifact generated by the correction.

Climate-driven increase in the variability and multi-year mean level of severe thunderstorm-related losses and thunderstorm forcing environments in the U.S. since 1970

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sander, Julia; Eichner, Jan; Faust, Eberhard; Steuer, Markus

2013-04-01

In the year 2011, direct losses from thunderstorms reached US 26 billion (insured) and US 47 billion (economic), thus equalling the dimension of losses caused by Hurricane Sandy in the New York area 2012. Beyond doubt the 2011 damages had outlier characteristics due to two cities hit by tornadoes. Nonetheless a substantial increase in the variability of normalised direct economic and insured severe thunderstorm-related losses in the U.S. east of the Rocky Mountains over the period 1970-2009 (March - September) has been detected. Besides the annual variability, also the multi-year mean level of losses has strongly increased. Our study focused on sizeable severe thunderstorm events causing at least US 250 million in normalized economic losses. The high threshold guarantees homogeneity over time, because those events regularly covered several states and thus are very unlikely to have been missed at any time due to reporting variability. To shed light on the question whether the strong increase was driven by an external climate driver, the time series of normalized losses (annual counts and annual loss aggregate) was correlated with the time series of thunderstorm forcing environments. The latter were inferred from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and comprise 6-hourly CAPE and vertical wind shear data combined to form a variable called Thunderstorm Severity Potential (TSP). From the notable correlation found between the time series of normalized thunderstorm-related losses and meteorologically registered thunderstorm forcing environments (TSP) it could be inferred that climate was the dominant driver for the increase in variability and average level of thunderstorm-related losses over the period 1970-2009. An important component in the rise of TSP over time could be identified in CAPE, as we found a substantial rise in the annual number of exceedances of a high CAPE threshold in the reanalysis data. Recent studies imply that the changes observed in our study, particularly regarding an increase in high-level CAPE environments, are consistent with the modelled effects of anthropogenic climate change. The physical chain of climate change-driven increasing levels of specific humidity (Willett et al. 2010) leading to rising levels of CAPE as one of the preconditions of more severe thunderstorm forcing environments has already been established by measurements and climate model experiments (Trapp et al. 2007, 2009). Literature: Sander, J., J. Eichner, E. Faust, and M.Steuer, 2012: Rising variability in thunderstorm-related U.S. losses as a reflection of changes in large-scale thunderstorm forcing, submitted paper. Trapp, R. J., N. S. Diffenbaugh, H. E. Brooks, M. E. Baldwin, E. D. Robinson, and J. S. Pal, 2007: Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 104, 19719-19723. Trapp, R. J., N. S. Diffenbaugh, and A. Gluhovsky, 2009: Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L01703, 6 pp., doi:10.1029/2008GL036203. Willett, K. M., P. D. Jones, P. W. Thorne, and N. P. Gillett, 2010: A comparison of large scale changes in surface humidity over land in observations and CMIP3 general circulation models. Environ. Res. Lett., 5, 025210, 13pp., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/2/025210.

Global Modeling and Projection of Short-Lived Climate Pollutants in an Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Klimont, Z.; Kurokawa, J.; Akimoto, H.

2013-12-01

In predicting and mitigating future global warming, short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as tropospheric ozone (O3), black carbon (BC), and other related components including CH4/VOCs and aerosols play crucial roles as well as long-lived species like CO2 or N2O. Several recent studies suggests that reduction of heating SLCPs (i.e., O3 and black carbon) together with CH4 can decrease and delay the expected future warming, and can be an alternative to CO2 mitigation (Shindell et al., 2012). However it should be noted that there are still large uncertainties in simulating SLCPs and their climate impacts. For instance, present global models generally have a severe tendency to underestimate BC especially in remote areas like the polar regions as shown by the recent model intercomparison project under the IPCC (ACCMIP/AeroCOM). This problem in global BC modeling, basically coming from aging and removal processes of BC, causes still a large uncertainty in the estimate of BC's atmospheric heating and climate impacts (Bond et al., 2013; Kerr et al., 2013). This study attempted to improve global simulation of BC by developing a new scheme for simulating aging process of BC and re-evaluate radiative forcing of BC in the framework of a chemistry-aerosol coupled climate model (Earth system model) MIROC-ESM-CHEM. Our improved model with the new aging scheme appears to relatively well reproduce the observed BC concentrations and seasonality in the Arctic/Antarctic region. The new model estimates radiative forcing of BC to be 0.83 W m-2 which is about two times larger than the estimate by our original model with no aging scheme (0.41 W m-2), or the model ensemble mean in the IPCC report. Using this model, future projection of SLCPs and their climate impacts is conducted following the recent IIASA emission scenarios for the year 2030 (Klimont et al., 2006; Cofala et al., 2007). Our simulation suggests that heating SLCPs components (O3, BC, and CH4) are significantly reduced in the maximal feasible reduction (MFR) scenario, contributing to global mean temperature reduction by about -0.25 oC after 2030. This heating-SLCPs-induced warming mitigation in MFR is, however, largely cancelled out by the temperature increase due to decreases in cooling aerosols (SO42-, NO3-, and organics), resulting in temperature projection which is not quite different from the other scenarios like CLE (current legislation for air quality) or 450ppm climate stabilization (intermediate reduction) scenario. References Bond et al. (2013): Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: A scientific assessment, J. Geophys. Res., 118, 5380-5552, doi:10.1002/jgrd.50171, 2013. Cofala et al. (2007): Scenarios of global anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane until 2030, Atmos. Environ., 41, 8486-8499. Kerr et al. (2013): Soot is warming the world even more than thought, Science, 339, 382, doi: 10.1126/science.339.6118.382. Klimont, Z., Brink, C. (2006): Modelling of Emissions of Air Pollutants and Greenhouse Gases from Agricultural Sources in Europe. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. Shindell et al. (2012): Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security, Science, 335, 183-189, doi: 10.1126/science.1210026.

Lake storage variation on the endorheic Tibetan Plateau and its attribution to climate change since the new millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Fangfang; Wang, Jida; Yang, Kehan; Wang, Chao; Walter, Blake A.; Crétaux, Jean-François

2018-06-01

Alpine lakes in the interior of Tibet, the endorheic Changtang Plateau (CP), serve as ‘sentinels’ of regional climate change. Recent studies indicated that accelerated climate change has driven a widespread area expansion in lakes across the CP, but comprehensive and accurate quantifications of their storage changes are hitherto rare. This study integrated optical imagery and digital elevation models to uncover the fine spatial details of lake water storage (LWS) changes across the CP at an annual timescale after the new millennium (from 2002–2015). Validated by hypsometric information based on long-term altimetry measurements, our estimated LWS variations outperform some existing studies with reduced estimation biases and improved spatiotemporal coverages. The net LWS increased at an average rate of 7.34 ± 0.62 Gt yr‑1 (cumulatively 95.42 ± 8.06 Gt), manifested as a dramatic monotonic increase of 9.05 ± 0.65 Gt yr‑1 before 2012, a deceleration and pause in 2013–2014, and then an intriguing decline after 2014. Observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment satellites reveal that the LWS pattern is in remarkable agreement with that of regional mass changes: a net effect of precipitation minus evapotranspiration (P-ET) in endorheic basins. Despite some regional variations, P-ET explains ~70% of the net LWS gain from 2002–2012 and the entire LWS loss after 2013. These findings clearly suggest that the water budget from net precipitation (i.e. P-ET) dominates those of glacier melt and permafrost degradation, and thus acts as the primary contributor to recent lake area/volume variations in endorheic Tibet. The produced lake areas and volume change dataset is freely available through PANAGEA (https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.888706).

Bridging a possible gap of GRACE observations in the Arctic Ocean using existing GRACE data and in situ bottom pressure sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peralta Ferriz, C.; Morison, J.

2014-12-01

Since 2003, the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite system has provided the means of investigating month-to-month to inter-annual variability of, among many other things, Arctic Ocean circulation over the entire Arctic Basin. Such a comprehensive picture could not have been achieved with the limited in situ pressure observations available. Results from the first 10 years of ocean bottom pressure measurements from GRACE in the Arctic Ocean reveal distinct patterns of ocean variability that are strongly associated with changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation (Peralta-Ferriz et al., 2014): the leading mode of variability being a wintertime basin-coherent mass change driven by winds in the Nordic Seas; the second mode of variability corresponding to a mass signal coherent along the Siberian shelves, and driven by the Arctic Oscillation; and the third mode being a see-saw between western and eastern Arctic shelves, also driven by the large-scale wind patterns. In order to understand Arctic Ocean changes, it is fundamental to continue to track ocean bottom pressure. Our concern is what to do if the present GRACE system, which is already well beyond its design lifetime, should fail before its follow-on is launched, currently estimated to be in 2017. In this work, we regress time series of pressure from the existing and potential Arctic Ocean bottom pressure recorder locations against the fundamental modes of bottom pressure variation. Our aim is to determine the optimum combination of in situ measurements to represent the broader scale variability now observed by GRACE. With this understanding, we can be better prepared to use in situ observations to at least partially cover a possible gap in GRACE coverage. Reference:Peralta-Ferriz, Cecilia, James H. Morison, John M. Wallace, Jennifer A. Bonin, Jinlun Zhang, 2014: Arctic Ocean Circulation Patterns Revealed by GRACE. J. Climate, 27, 1445-1468. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00013.1

Aerosol patterns and aerosol-cloud-interactions off the West African Coast based on the A-train formation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fuchs, Julia; Bendix, Jörg; Cermak, Jan

2013-04-01

In this study, spatial and temporal aerosol patterns off the Western African coast are characterized and related to cloud properties, based on satellite data Atmospheric aerosols play a key role in atmospheric processes and influence our environmental system in a complex way. Their identification, characterization, transport patterns as well as their interactions with clouds pose major challenges. Especially the last aspect reveals major uncertainties in terms of the Earth's radiation budget as reported in the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007). Western and Southern Africa are dominated by two well-known source types of atmospheric aerosols. First, the Saharan Desert is the world's largest aeolian dust emitting source region. Second, biomass burning aerosol is commonly transported off-shore further south (Kaufman et al., 2005). Both aerosol types influence Earth's climate in different manners and can be detected by the MODIS (MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer) sensor onboard the EOS platforms as they propagate to the Central and Southern Atlantic. The motivation of this study was to reveal the seasonal pattern of the Saharan dust transport based on an observation period of 11 years and trying to explain the meteorological mechanisms. North African dust plumes are transported along a latitude of 19°N in July and 6°N in January. The seasonally fluctuating intensities adapt to the annual cycle of wind and precipitation regimes. A strong relationship is found between the spatial shift of the Azores High and the Saharan dust load over the middle Atlantic Ocean. Monthly Aerosol Optical Thickness products of Terra MODIS and NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Predictions) Reanalysis II data are used for this purpose. The relationship between aerosol and cloud droplet parameters is blurred by high sensitivities to aerosol size and composition (Feingold, 2003; McFiggans et al., 2006) as well as meteorological context (Ackerman et al., 2004). Satellite data from the A-train formation, including the Aqua, CloudSat and CALIPSO (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation) are used to analyze aerosol-cloud-interactions in detail, along with re-analysis data to constrain by meteorological conditions. Information about the vertical and geographical distribution of different aerosol types and cloud parameters will lead to a process-oriented understanding of these issues on a regional scale. Ackerman, A., Kirkpatrick, M., Stevens, D., & Toon, O. (2004). The impact of humidity above stratiform clouds on indirect aerosol climate forcing. Nature, 432(December), 1014-1017. doi:10.1038/nature03137.1. Feingold, G. (2003). First measurements of the Twomey indirect effect using ground-based remote sensors. Geophysical Research Letters, 30(6), 1287. doi:10.1029/2002GL016633 IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Interfovernmental Panel on climate Change. Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. Kaufman, Y. J., Koren, I., Remer, L. A., Tanré, D., Ginoux, P., & Fan, S. (2005). Dust transport and deposition observed from the Terra-Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) spacecraft over the Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(D10), 1-16. doi:10.1029/2003JD004436 McFiggans, G., Artaxo, P., Baltensperger, U., Coe, H., Facchini, M. C., Feingold, G., Fuzzi, S., et al. (2006). The effect of physical and chemical aerosol properties on warm cloud droplet activation. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 6(9), 2593-2649. doi:10.5194/acp-6-2593-2006

Emission Data For Climate-Chemistry Interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, S. J.

2012-12-01

Data on anthropogenic and natural emissions of reactive species are a critical input for studies of atmospheric chemistry and climate. The availability and characteristics of anthropogenic emissions data that can be used for such studies are reviewed and pathways for future work discuss Global and regional datasets for historical and future emissions are available, but their characteristics and applicability for specific studies differ. For the first time, a coordinated set of historical emissions (Lamarque et al 2010) and the future projections (van Vuurren et al. 2011) have been developed for use in the CMIP5 and ACCMIP long-term simulation comparison projects. These data have decadal resolution and were designed for long-term, global simulations. These data, however, lack finer-scale spatial and temporal detail that might be needed for some studies. Robust and timely updates of emissions data is generally lacking, although recent updates will be presented. While historical emission data is often treated as known, emissions are uncertain, even though this uncertainty is rarely quantified. Uncertainty varies by species and location. Inverse modeling is starting to indicate where emission data may be uncertain, which opens the way to improving these data overall. Further interaction between the chemistry modeling and inventory development communities are needed. Future projections are intrinsically uncertain, and while institutions and processes are in place to develop and review long-term century-scale scenarios, a need has remained for a wider range in shorter-term (e.g., several decade) projections. Emissions and scenario development communities have been working to fill this need. Communication across disciplines of the assumptions embedded in emissions projections remains a challenge. Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool needed for studying chemistry-climate interactions. Simpler models, however, are also needed in order to examine interactions between different physical systems and also between the physical and human systems. Statistical models of system responses are particularly needed both to parameterize interactions in models that cannot simulate particular processes directly, and also to represent uncertainty. Coordinated model experiments are necessary to provide the information needed to develop these representations (i.e. Wild et al 2011). Lamarque, J. F, et al. (2010) Historical (1850-2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10 pp. 7017-7039. doi:10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010 Van Vuuren, D, JA Edmonds, M Kainuma, K Riahi, AM Thomson, KA Hibbard, G Hurtt, T Kram, V Krey, JF Lamarque, matsui, M Meinhausen, N Nakicenovic, SJ Smith, and SK Rose. 2011. "The Representative Concentration Pathways: An Overview." Climatic Change 109 (1-2) 5-31. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z. Wild, O., et al. (2012) Modelling future changes in surface ozone: A parameterized approach. Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 2037-2054, doi:10.5194/acp-12-2037-2012.

Climate-methane cycle feedback in global climate model model simulations forced by RCP scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eliseev, Alexey V.; Denisov, Sergey N.; Arzhanov, Maxim M.; Mokhov, Igor I.

2013-04-01

Methane cycle module of the global climate model of intermediate complexity developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM) is extended by coupling with a detailed module for thermal and hydrological processes in soil (Deep Soil Simulator, (Arzhanov et al., 2008)). This is an important improvement with respect with the earlier IAP RAS CM version (Eliseev et al., 2008) which has employed prescribed soil hydrology to simulate CH4 emissions from soil. Geographical distribution of water inundated soil in the model was also improved by replacing the older Olson's ecosystem data base by the data based on the SCIAMACHY retrievals (Bergamaschi et al., 2007). New version of the IAP RAS CM module for methane emissions from soil is validated by using the simulation protocol adopted in the WETCHIMP (Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project). In addition, atmospheric part of the IAP RAS CM methane cycle is extended by temperature dependence of the methane life-time in the atmosphere in order to mimic the respective dependence of the atmospheric methane chemistry (Denisov et al., 2012). The IAP RAS CM simulations are performed for the 18th-21st centuries according with the CMIP5 protocol taking into account natural and anthropogenic forcings. The new IAP RAS CM version realistically reproduces pre-industrial and present-day characteristics of the global methane cycle including CH4 concentration qCH4 in the atmosphere and CH4 emissions from soil. The latter amounts 150 - 160 TgCH4-yr for the late 20th century and increases to 170 - 230 TgCH4-yr in the late 21st century. Atmospheric methane concentration equals 3900 ppbv under the most aggressive anthropogenic scenario RCP 8.5 and 1850 - 1980 ppbv under more moderate scenarios RCP 6.0 and RCP 4.5. Under the least aggressive scenario RCP 2.6 qCH4 reaches maximum 1730 ppbv in 2020s and declines afterwards. Climate change impact on the methane emissions from soil enhances build up of the methane stock in the atmosphere by 10 - 25% depending on anthropogenic scenario and time instant. In turn, decrease of methane life-time in the atmosphere suppresses this build up by 5 - 40%. The net effect is uncertain but small in terms of resulting additional greenhouse radiative forcing. This smallness is reflected in small additional (relative to the model version with both methane emissions from soil and methane life-time in the atmosphere fixed at their preindustrial values) near-surface warming which globally is not larger than 1 K, i.e, ˜ 4% of warming exhibited by the model version neglecting climate-methane cycle interaction. References [1] M.M. Arzhanov, P.F. Demchenko, A.V. Eliseev, and I.I. Mokhov. Simulation of characteristics of thermal and hydrologic soil regimes in equilibrium numerical experiments with a climate model of intermediate complexity. Izvestiya, Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 44(5):279-287, 2008. doi: 10.1134/S0001433808050022. [2] P. Bergamaschi, C. Frankenberg, J.F. Meirink, M. Krol, F. Dentener, T. Wagner, U. Platt, J.O. Kaplan, S. Körner, M. Heimann, E.J. Dlugokencky, and A. Goede. Satellite chartography of atmospheric methane from SCIAMACHY on board ENVISAT: 2. Evaluation based on inverse model simulations. J. Geophys. Res., 112(D2):D02304, 2007. doi: 10.1029/2006JD007268. [3] S.N. Denisov, A.V. Eliseev, and I.I. Mokhov. Climate change in the IAP RAS global model with interactive methane cycle under RCP anthropogenic scenarios. Rus. Meteorol. Hydrol., 2012. [submitted]. [4] A.V. Eliseev, I.I. Mokhov, M.M. Arzhanov, P.F. Demchenko, and S.N. Denisov. Interaction of the methane cycle and processes in wetland ecosystems in a climate model of intermediate complexity. Izvestiya, Atmos. Ocean. Phys., 44(2):139-152, 2008. doi: 10.1134/S0001433808020011.

Visualizing projected Climate Changes - the CMIP5 Multi-Model Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Böttinger, Michael; Eyring, Veronika; Lauer, Axel; Meier-Fleischer, Karin

2017-04-01

Large ensembles add an additional dimension to climate model simulations. Internal variability of the climate system can be assessed for example by multiple climate model simulations with small variations in the initial conditions or by analyzing the spread in large ensembles made by multiple climate models under common protocols. This spread is often used as a measure of uncertainty in climate projections. In the context of the fifth phase of the WCRP's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), more than 40 different coupled climate models were employed to carry out a coordinated set of experiments. Time series of the development of integral quantities such as the global mean temperature change for all models visualize the spread in the multi-model ensemble. A similar approach can be applied to 2D-visualizations of projected climate changes such as latitude-longitude maps showing the multi-model mean of the ensemble by adding a graphical representation of the uncertainty information. This has been demonstrated for example with static figures in chapter 12 of the last IPCC report (AR5) using different so-called stippling and hatching techniques. In this work, we focus on animated visualizations of multi-model ensemble climate projections carried out within CMIP5 as a way of communicating climate change results to the scientific community as well as to the public. We take a closer look at measures of robustness or uncertainty used in recent publications suitable for animated visualizations. Specifically, we use the ESMValTool [1] to process and prepare the CMIP5 multi-model data in combination with standard visualization tools such as NCL and the commercial 3D visualization software Avizo to create the animations. We compare different visualization techniques such as height fields or shading with transparency for creating animated visualization of ensemble mean changes in temperature and precipitation including corresponding robustness measures. [1] Eyring, V., Righi, M., Lauer, A., Evaldsson, M., Wenzel, S., Jones, C., Anav, A., Andrews, O., Cionni, I., Davin, E. L., Deser, C., Ehbrecht, C., Friedlingstein, P., Gleckler, P., Gottschaldt, K.-D., Hagemann, S., Juckes, M., Kindermann, S., Krasting, J., Kunert, D., Levine, R., Loew, A., Mäkelä, J., Martin, G., Mason, E., Phillips, A. S., Read, S., Rio, C., Roehrig, R., Senftleben, D., Sterl, A., van Ulft, L. H., Walton, J., Wang, S., and Williams, K. D.: ESMValTool (v1.0) - a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth system models in CMIP, Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1747-1802, doi:10.5194/gmd-9-1747-2016, 2016.

Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ivanovic, Ruza; Gregoire, Lauren; Kageyama, Masa; Roche, Didier; Valdes, Paul; Burke, Andrea; Drummond, Rosemarie; Peltier, W. Richard; Tarasov, Lev

2016-04-01

The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 thousand years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core simulation over the period 21-9 thousand years before present (ka) with time varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad-hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate the effect of ice sheet and iceberg meltwater, and the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will concentrate on shorter durations around specific events to allow the more computationally expensive models to take part. Ivanovic, R. F., Gregoire, L. J., Kageyama, M., Roche, D. M., Valdes, P. J., Burke, A., Drummond, R., Peltier, W. R., and Tarasov, L.: Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21-9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 9045-9102, doi:10.5194/gmdd-8-9045-2015, 2015.

The unknown planktonic foraminiferal pioneer Henry A. Buckley and his collection at The Natural History Museum, London

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rillo, Marina C.; Whittaker, John; Ezard, Thomas H. G.; Purvis, Andy; Henderson, Andrew S.; Stukins, Stephen; Miller, C. Giles

2016-12-01

The Henry Buckley Collection of Planktonic Foraminifera at the Natural History Museum in London (NHMUK) consists of 1665 single-taxon slides housing 23 897 individuals from 203 sites in all the major ocean basins, as well as a vast research library of Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM) photomicrographs. Buckley picked the material from the NHMUK Ocean-Bottom Deposit Collection and also from fresh tow samples. However, his collection remains largely unused as he was discouraged by his managers in the Mineralogy Department from working on or publicizing the collection. Nevertheless, Buckley published pioneering papers on isotopic interpretation of oceanographic and climatic change and was one of the first workers to investigate foraminiferal wall structure using the SEM technique. Details of the collection and images of each slide are available via the NHMUK Data Portal (http://dx.doi.org/10.5519/0035055). The Buckley Collection and its associated Ocean-Bottom Deposit Collection have great potential for taxon-specific studies as well as geochemical work, and both collections are available on request.

Northwest Climate Science Center: Integrating Regional Research, Conservation and Natural Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mote, P.; Bisbal, G.

2012-12-01

The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) was established in 2010, among the first three of eight regional Climate Science Centers created by the Department of the Interior (DOI). The NW CSC is supported by an academic consortium (Oregon State University, University of Idaho, and the University of Washington), which has the capacity to generate and coordinate decision-relevant science related to climate, thus serving stakeholders across the Pacific Northwest region. The NW CSC has overlapping boundaries with three Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs): the Great Northern, the Great Basin, and the North Pacific. Collaboration between the NW CSC and these three LCCs addresses the highest priority regional climate science needs of Northwest natural and cultural resource managers. Early in 2012, the NW CSC released its first Strategic Plan for the period 2012-2015. The plan offers a practical blueprint for operation and describes five core services that the NW CSC provides to the Northwest community. These core services emphasize (a) bringing together the regional resource management and science communities to calibrate priorities and ensure efficient integration of climate science resources and tools when addressing practical issues of regional significance; (b) developing and implementing a stakeholder-driven science agenda which highlights the NW CSC's regional leadership in generating scenarios of the future environment of the NW; (c) supporting and training graduate students at the three consortium universities, including through an annual 'Climate science boot camp'; (d) providing a platform for effective climate-change-related communication among scientists, resource managers, and the general public; and (e) national leadership in data management and climate scenario development.

Temperature trend estimates in the troposphere over Antarctica by use of analysis of the GPS radio occultation data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Kefei; Fu, Erjiang; Wang, Chuan-Sheng; Liou, Yuei-An; Pavelyev, Alexander; Kuleshov, Yuriy

2010-05-01

Analyses of the Antarctic climate change during recent decades have demonstrated a positive continent-wide average near-surface temperature trend. Strong warming of the Antarctic Peninsula in contrast to slight cooling of the Antarctic continental interior in the last five decades has been emphasised [Turner et al. 2005]. Recently, it has been reported that significant warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface extends well beyond the Antarctic Peninsular to cover most of West Antarctica with a warming rate exceeding 0.1°C per decade over the past 50 years, and is strongest in winter and spring [Steig et al. 2009]. Assessments of atmospheric temperature trends have also found significant warming of the Antarctic winter troposphere. Analysing data from nine Antarctic radiosonde stations, it has been shown that regional midtropospheric temperatures have increased at a statistically significant rate of 0.5 to 0.7°C per decade over the past three decades - a major warming of the Antarctic winter troposphere that is larger than any previously identified regional tropospheric warming on Earth [Turner et al. 2006]. Analysis of climate change over the Polar Regions is particularly challenging due to the scarcity of observations from a small number of sparsely located weather stations. Obviously, data obtained by various satellite remote sensing techniques are invaluable in order to obtain spatially-complete distributions of near-surface and atmospheric temperature trends in high latitudes. For example, using the climate quality records of satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) observations, it has been shown that significant tropospheric warming prevails during Antarctic winters and springs, with the largest winter tropospheric warming of about 0.6°C per decade for 1979-2005 between 120°W and 180°W [Johanson and Fu 2007]. Recently, a new atmospheric observation technique, GPS radio occultation (RO), has been developed for acquiring the Earth's atmospheric characteristics. Latest research results have demonstrated the great potential of the new technique to global climate monitoring and numerical weather prediction. With the newly launched six FORMOSAT-3 LEO satellites in 2006, thousands of high-quality, globally-distributed daily vertical profiles of refractivity, temperature and moisture have been obtained [Liou et al. 2007]. It is anticipated that GPS RO technique will play an important role in meteorological studies because of the significantly increased amount of atmospheric observations and improved data processing methodology. In this study, we use GPS RO data and collocated radiosonde data from three Australian weather observation stations (Casey, Davis and Mawson) to evaluate impacts of different collocation criteria (specifically, 100, 200 and 300 km spatial buffers and 1, 2 and 3 hour temporal buffers). Spatial and temporal variations in troposhperic temperatures over Antarctica are also investigated using the GPS RO data. Detailed analysis of refractivity and temperature profiles is presented and seasonal temperature variations in the troposphere are discussed. References Johanson, C. M., and Q. Fu, 2007: Antarctic atmospheric temperature trend patterns from satellite observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L12703, doi:10.1029/2006GL029108. Liou, Y.-A., A. G. Pavelyev, S. F. Liu, A. A. Pavelyev, N. Yen, C. Y. Huang, and C. J. Fong, 2007: FORMOSAT-3 GPS radio occultation mission: preliminary results. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sensing, 45(10), doi:10.1109/TGRS.2007.903365. Steig, E. J., D. P. Schneider, S.D. Rutherford, M. M. Mann, J. C. Comiso, and D. T. Shindell, 2009: Warming of the Antarctic ice-sheet surface since the 1957 International Geophysical Year. Nature 457, 22 January 2009, doi: 10.1038/nature07669. Turner, J., S.R. Colwell, G.J. Marshall, T.A. Lachlan-Cope, A.M. Carleton, P.D. Jones, V. Lagun, P.A. Reid, and S. Iagovkina, 2005: Antarctic climate change during the last 50 years. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 279-294. Turner, J., T. A. Lachlan-Cope, S. Colwell, G. J. Marshall, and W. M. Connolley, 2006: Significant Warming of the Antarctic Winter Troposphere, Science 311, 1914, doi: 10.1126/science.1121652.

CMIP6 Citation Services and the Data Services of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre for AR6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockhause, Martina; Lautenschlager, Michael

2017-04-01

As a result of the experiences from CMIP5 the two services contributed by DKRZ to the CMIP research infrastructure have been improved for CMIP6: the Citation Services and the Services of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC, http://ipcc-data.org). 1. Data Citation Services: Within CMIP5 it took a couple of years before the data was citable with their DataCite DOIs. The DataCite DOI registration by the WDC Climate at DKRZ (World Data Center Climate at the Climate Computing Center) requires data transfer and long-term archival at DKRZ according to DDC's quality standards. Based on a request from WGCM (Working Group on Climate Models) an additional early citation possibility for the evolving CMIP6 data was added to the citation service (http://cmip6cite.wdc-climate.de). 2. IPCC DDC Services: WDC Climate has been hosting the IPCC DDC's Reference Data Archive for the climate model output underlying the IPCC Assessment Reports (ARs) since the Second Assessment Report in 1995. One task of the DDC is the support of the IPCC Working Groups (WGs) and their authors. The WG support was not sufficient for AR5 resulting in WG I setting up and maintaining their own CMIP5 data repository hosting a data subset. The DDC will open DKRZ's CMIP data pool as an additional DDC service for the IPCC authors using a synergy with the interests of the national climate community. Within the PICO the Citation and the IPCC DDC services will be presented from a user's perspective. The connections to and integration into the infrastructure for CMIP6 (see https://www.earthsystemcog.org/projects/wip/) will be explained.

Perceived temperature in the course of climate change: an analysis of global heat index from 1979 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D.; Brenner, T.

2015-08-01

The increase in global mean temperatures resulting from climate change has wide reaching consequences for the earth's ecosystems and other natural systems. Many studies have been devoted to evaluating the distribution and effects of these changes. We go a step further and propose the use of the heat index, a measure of the temperature as perceived by humans, to evaluate global changes. The heat index, which is computed from temperature and relative humidity, is more important than temperature for the health of humans and animals. Even in cases where the heat index does not reach dangerous levels from a health perspective, it has been shown to be an important factor in worker productivity and thus in economic productivity. We compute the heat index from dew point temperature and absolute temperature 2 m above ground from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data set for the years 1979-2013. The described data set provides global heat index aggregated to daily minima, means and maxima per day (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.841057). This paper examines these data, as well as showing aggregations to monthly and yearly values. Furthermore, the data are spatially aggregated to the level of countries after being weighted by population density in order to facilitate the analysis of its impact on human health and productivity. The resulting data deliver insights into the spatiotemporal development of near-ground heat index during the course of the past three decades. It is shown that the impact of changing heat index is unevenly distributed through space and time, affecting some areas differently than others. The data can serve as a basis for evaluating and understanding the evolution of heat index in the course of climate change, as well as its impact on human health and productivity.

Attribution of low precipitation in California during the winter of 2013-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mera, R. J.; Ekwurzel, B.; Rupp, D. E.

2014-12-01

The record-setting drought in the state of California was further aggravated by extreme low precipitation in the winter of 2013-2014 and the associated low snow cover over the Sierra Nevada. Attribution work on the decline in Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover (Rupp et al. 2013) has shown that the decrease was likely the result of combined natural and anthropogenic forcing but not by natural forcing alone. Regional model superensemble simulations of snow water equivalent (SWE) with the Hadley Regional Climate Model (HadRM3P) shows the decline as a statistically-significant, linear trend for the Western US from 1961 to 2010. The present work focuses on attribution of these events by employing a superensemble of regional climate model simulations from the climateprediction.net (CPDN) experiment, which allows for robust statistical analysis of extreme events. Specifically, we compare the decade of the 2000s and the 1960s, which had different levels of heat-trapping gases and forcing from natural variability, among other factors. A linear regression of wet days and number of days with precipitation above 40 mm shows a strong drying pattern for the winter months of December, January, February, March (DJFM), especially for northern California and the Sierra Nevada. A strong warming pattern is also present during the winter months, with the minimum temperatures outpacing maximum temperatures for the Pacific Northwest. We will also investigate how simulations for DJFM 2013-2014, using only natural forcing provided CMIP5 HistoricalNat boundary conditions, compare against the model simulations using observations as boundary conditions. Results from this experiment also highlight the influence of increasing number of simulations on confidence intervals, which significantly reduces the uncertainty of both the change in magnitude of a given event and its corresponding return period.Rupp, David E., Philip W. Mote, Nathaniel L. Bindoff, Peter A. Stott, David A. Robinson, 2013: Detection and Attribution of Observed Changes in Northern Hemisphere Spring Snow Cover. J. Climate, 26, 6904-6914.doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00563.1

Effects of Near-Term Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Infrastructure

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

methodology is more objective, and more robust, than the standard methods of counting overwash sand layers or identifying marine microfossils in the...duration thresholds on Atlantic tropical cyclone counts , J. Climate, 23, 2508-2519, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI3034.1. Lane, P., Donnelly, J.P., Woodruff...Holocene Climate in the Northern Great Plains Inferred from Sediment Stratigraphy, Stable Isotopes, Carbonate Geochemistry, Diatoms, and Pollen at Moon

Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carter, T. R.

2013-12-01

In 2005, Finland was among the first countries in the world to develop a national climate change adaptation strategy (Marttila et al., 2005). This included a characterization of future changes in climate and socioeconomic conditions using scenarios based on the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES - IPCC, 2000). Following a government evaluation of the strategy, completion of a national adaptation research programme, and in light of the recent European Union adaptation strategy, the Finnish strategy is now under revision. As part of this revision process, the New Scenario Framework (Moss et al., 2010) is being used to guide the mapping of future conditions in Finland out to the end of the 21st century. Future Finnish climate is being analysed using the CMIP5 climate model simulations (Taylor et al., 2012), including downscaled information based on regional climate model projections in the EURO-CORDEX project (Vautard et al., 2013). All projections are forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs - van Vuuren et al., 2011). Socioeconomic scenarios are also being developed by outlining alternative pathways that reflect national social, economic, environmental and planning goals. These are designed according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) framework of challenges to adaptation and mitigation (Kriegler et al., 2012). Work is in progress to characterize these pathways, mainly qualitatively, for different sectors in Finland. Preliminary results of the conceptual scenario development phase will be presented in this session. These initial ideas will be exchanged with representatives of ministries, regional government and key stakeholder groups. The eventual form and number of scenarios that appear in the revised strategy will be determined following a formal review of the draft document to be prepared in 2014. Future work could include quantification of scenarios, possibly mapping them onto the specific SSP worlds. This would then provide a firm basis for future climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, offering RCP/SSP-based scenarios that are not only related to the global New Scenarios Framework, but are also recognised by national policy makers and key stakeholders, via the revised national climate change adaptation strategy. References IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Nakićenović, N. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, 600 pp. Kriegler E et al. (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Envir. Change 22:807-822. Marttila V et al. (2005) Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, MMM publications 1a/2005, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki, Finland, 280 pp. Moss RH et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756. Taylor KE et al. (2012) A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. BAMS 93:485-498. van Vuuren DP et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109:5-31. Vautard R et al. (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

Assessment of the Probability of Autochthonous Transmission of Chikungunya Virus in Canada under Recent and Projected Climate Change

PubMed Central

Fazil, Aamir; Gachon, Philippe; Deuymes, Guillaume; Radojević, Milka; Mascarenhas, Mariola; Garasia, Sophiya; Johansson, Michael A.; Ogden, Nicholas H.

2017-01-01

Background: Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a reemerging pathogen transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes. The ongoing Caribbean outbreak is of concern due to the potential for infected travelers to spread the virus to countries where vectors are present and the population is susceptible. Although there has been no autochthonous transmission of CHIKV in Canada, there is concern that both Ae. albopictus and CHIKV will become established, particularly under projected climate change. We developed risk maps for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada under recent (1981–2010) and projected climate (2011–2040 and 2041–2070). Methods: The risk for CHIKV transmission was the combination of the climatic suitability for CHIKV transmission potential and the climatic suitability for the presence of Ae. albopictus; the former was assessed using a stochastic model to calculate R0 and the latter was assessed by deriving a suitability indicator (SIG) that captures a set of climatic conditions known to influence the ecology of Ae. albopictus. R0 and SIG were calculated for each grid cell in Canada south of 60°N, for each time period and for two emission scenarios, and combined to produce overall risk categories that were mapped to identify areas suitable for transmission and the duration of transmissibility. Findings: The risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission under recent climate is very low with all of Canada classified as unsuitable or rather unsuitable for transmission. Small parts of southern coastal British Columbia become progressively suitable with short-term and long-term projected climate; the duration of potential transmission is limited to 1–2 months of the year. Interpretation: Although the current risk for autochthonous CHIKV transmission in Canada is very low, our study could be further supported by the routine surveillance of Ae. albopictus in areas identified as potentially suitable for transmission given our uncertainty on the current distribution of this species in Canada. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP669 PMID:28731409

Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ban, Nikolina; Schmidli, Juerg; Schär, Christoph

2015-04-01

Climate models project that heavy precipitation events intensify with climate change. It is generally accepted that extreme day-long events will increase at a rate of about 6-7% per degree warming, consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. However, recent studies suggest that sub-daily (e.g. hourly) precipitation extremes may increase at about twice this rate (referred to as super-adiabatic scaling). Conventional climate models are not suited to assess such events, due to the limited spatial resolution and the need to parameterize convective precipitation (i.e. thunderstorms and rain showers). Here we employ a convection-resolving version of the COSMO model across an extended region (1100 km x 1100 km) covering the European Alps to investigate the differences between parameterized and explicit convection in climate-change scenarios. We conduct 10-year long integrations at resolutions of 12 and 2km. Validation using ERA-Interim driven simulations reveals major improvements with the 2km resolution, in particular regarding the diurnal cycle of mean precipitation and the representation of hourly extremes. In addition, 2km simulations replicate the observed super-adiabatic scaling at precipitation stations, i.e. peak hourly events increase faster with environmental temperature than the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of 7%/K (see Ban et al. 2014). Convection-resolving climate change scenarios are conducted using control (1991-2000) and scenario (2081-2090) simulations driven by a CMIP5 GCM (i.e. the MPI-ESM-LR) under the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario. Consistent with previous results, projections reveal a significant decrease of mean summer precipitation (by 30%). However, unlike previous studies, we find that increase in both extreme day-long and hour-long precipitation events asymptotically intensify with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation in 2km simulation (Ban et al. 2015). Differences to previous studies might be due to the model or region considered, but we also show that it is inconsistent to extrapolate from present-day super-adiabatic precipitation scaling into the future. The applicability of the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling across the whole event spectrum is a potentially useful result for climate impact adaptation. Ban, N., J. Schmidli and C. Schär (2015): Heavy precipitation in a changing climate: Does short-term summer precipitation increase faster? Submitted to GRL. Ban, N., J. Schmidli and C. Schär (2014): Evaluation of the convection-resolving regional climate modeling approach in decade-long simulations. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos.,119, 7889-7907, doi:10.1002/2014JD021478

Fire-induced risk in Andisols: An State-of-the-Art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neris, Jonay; Cerdà, Artemi; Santamarta, Juan C.; Doerr, Stefan

2014-05-01

Wildfires are increasingly recognized as the primary natural hazard affecting forests and woodlands (Pausas, 2004), and changing the soil properties due to the heat (Aznar et al., 2013). They are also the factor that determines the increase in soil and water losses (Cerdà, 1998a; Shakesby, 2011). Fire contributes to increase the surface runoff due to the water repellency (Mataix-Solera et al., 2004; Cerdà and Doerr, 2008) although a quick recovery is found when vegetation is recovered (Cerdà, 1988b; Guénon et al., 2013). Within the recovery process ash is the key factor once the vegetation is recovered (Bodí et al., 2011; León et al., 2013; Pereira et al., 2013). To reduce the impact of forest fires some strategies were developed (Prats et al., 2013). The fire direct and indirect impacts on ecosystems and the human population, infrastructures, supplies and goods have been increasing over the last decades due to climatic and socio-economic changes and are projected to increase further in the future. In the densely populated volcanic regions that are characterized by steep and fire-prone slopes, Andisols are the main soil type. Their mineralogical properties provide them with specific chemical and physical properties which strength their fertility and resistance to erosion but also differentiate their response to environmental disturbances such as land use change (Jiménez et al., 2006; Neris et al., 2012) but also forest fires and agricultural burning (Neris et al., 2013; Poulenard et al., 2001). Despite their relevance for human development and safety, little specific knowledge exists about them and papers addressing their singularities are limited. This works seeks to compile and review existing scientific works focused on the effects of fire on this particular type of soils, evaluate their response to this disturbance and identify knowledge gaps related to the fire-induced risk in Andisols in order to develop new lines of research. Acknowledgements This work has been developed in the framework of the RECLAND Project. It has been funded by the European Union under Lifelong Learning Programme, Erasmus Programme: Erasmus Multilateral Projects, 526746-LLP-1-2012-1-ES-ERASMUS-EMCR, MSc Programme in Climate Change and Restoration of Degraded Land. The research projects GL2008-02879/BTE, LEDDRA 243857 and RECARE FP7 project 603498 supported this research. References Aznar, J.M., González-Pérez, J.A., Badía, D., Martí, C. 2013. At what depth are the properties of a Gypseous forest topsoil affected by burning?. Land Degradation and Development, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2258 Bodí, M., Mataix-Solera, J., Stefan H. Doerr, S.H., Cerdà, A. 2012. The wettability of ash from burned vegetation and its relationship to Mediterranean plant species type, burn severity and total organic carbon content. Geoderma 160, 599-607. Cerdà, A. 1998a. Postfire dynamics of erosional processes under mediterranean climatic conditions. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie, 42 (3) 373-398. Cerdà, A. 1998b. Changes in overland flow and infiltration after a rangeland fire in a Mediterranean scrubland. Hydrological Processes, 12, 1031-1042. Cerdà, A., Doerr, S.H. 2008. The effect of ash and needle cover on surface runoff and erosion in the immediate post-fire period. Catena, 74 , 256- 263. doi:10.1016/S0341-8162(02)00027-9 Guénon, R., Vennetier, M., Dupuy, N., Roussos, S., Pailler, A., Gros, R. 2013. Trends in recovery of Mediterranean soil chemical properties and microbial activities after infrequent and frequent wildfires. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 115-128, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.1109. Jiménez, C., Tejedor, M., Morillas, G., Neris, J., 2006. Infiltration rate in Andisols: Effect of changes in vegetation cover (Tenerife, Spain). Journal of Soil and Water Conservation 61(3), 153-158. León, J., Bodí, M.B., Cerdà, A., Badía, D., 2013. The contrasted response of ash to wetting: The effects of ash type, thickness and rainfall events. Geoderma 209-210, 143-152. Mataix-Solera, J., Doerr, S.H. 2004. Hydrophobic and aggregate stability in calcareous topsoils from fire-affected pine forest in southeastern Spain. Geoderma 118, 77-88. Neris, J., Jiménez, C., Fuentes, J., Morillas, G., Tejedor, M., 2012. Vegetation and land-use effects on soil properties and water infiltration of Andisols in Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain). Catena 98(0), 55-62. Neris, J., Tejedor, M., Fuentes, J., Jiménez, C., 2013. Infiltration, runoff and soil loss in Andisols affected by forest fire (Canary Islands, Spain). Hydrological Processes 27(19), 2814-2824. Pausas, J.G. 2004. Changes in fire and climate in the eastern Iberian Peninsula (Mediterranean basin). Climatic Change 63: 337-350. Pereira, P., Cerdà, A., Úbeda, X., Mataix-Solera, J., Martin, D., Jordán, A., Burguet, M. 2013. Spatial models for monitoring the spatio-temporal evolution of ashes after fire - a case study of a burnt grassland in Lithuania. Solid Earth, 4: 153-165. Poulenard, J., Podwojewski, P., Janeau, J.L., Collinet, J., 2001. Runoff and soil erosion under rainfall simulation of Andisols from the Ecuadorian Páramo: Effect of tillage and burning. Catena 45(3), 185-207. Prats, S.A., Malvar, M.C., Simões-Vieira, D.C., MacDonald, L., and Keizer, J.J. 2013. Effectiveness of hydromulching to reduce runoff and erosion in a recently burnt pine plantation in central Portugal. Land Degradation & Development, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2236. Prats, S.A., Malvar, M.C., Simões-Vieira, D.C., MacDonald, L., and Keizer, J.J. 2013. Effectiveness of hydromulching to reduce runoff and erosion in a recently burnt pine plantation in central Portugal. Land Degradation & Development, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2236. Shakesby, R.A. 2011. Post-wildfire soil erosion in the Mediterranean: Review and future research directions. Earth Science Reviews, 105, 71-100.

Socioeconomic Drought in a Changing Climate: Modeling and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

AghaKouchak, Amir; Mehran, Ali; Mazdiyasni, Omid

2016-04-01

Drought is typically defined based on meteorological, hydrological and land surface conditions. However, in many parts of the world, anthropogenic changes and water management practices have significantly altered local water availability. Socioeconomic drought refers to conditions whereby the available water supply cannot satisfy the human and environmental water needs. Surface water reservoirs provide resilience against local climate variability (e.g., droughts), and play a major role in regional water management. This presentation focuses on a framework for describing socioeconomic drought based on both water supply and demand information. We present a multivariate approach as a measure of socioeconomic drought, termed Multivariate Standardized Reliability and Resilience Index (MSRRI; Mehran et al., 2015). This model links the information on inflow and surface reservoir storage to water demand. MSRRI integrates a "top-down" and a "bottom-up" approach for describing socioeconomic drought. The "top-down" component describes processes that cannot be simply controlled or altered by local decision-makers and managers (e.g., precipitation, climate variability, climate change), whereas the "bottom-up" component focuses on the local resilience, and societal capacity to respond to droughts. The two components (termed, Inflow-Demand Reliability (IDR) indicator and Water Storage Resilience (WSR) indicator) are integrated using a nonparametric multivariate approach. We use this framework to assess the socioeconomic drought during the Australian Millennium Drought (1998-2010) and the 2011-2014 California Droughts. MSRRI provides additional information on socioeconomic drought onset, development and termination based on local resilience and human demand that cannot be obtained from the commonly used drought indicators. We show that MSRRI can be used for water management scenario analysis (e.g., local water availability based on different human water demands scenarios). Finally, we provide examples of using the proposed modeling framework for analyzing water availability in a changing climate considering local conditions. Reference: Mehran A., Mazdiyasni O., AghaKouchak A., 2015, A Hybrid Framework for Assessing Socioeconomic Drought: Linking Climate Variability, Local Resilience, and Demand, Journal of Geophysical Research, 120 (15), 7520-7533, doi: 10.1002/2015JD023147

Performance of the JULES land surface model for UK Biogenic VOC emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hayman, Garry; Comyn-Platt, Edward; Vieno, Massimo; Langford, Ben

2017-04-01

Emissions of biogenic non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) are important for air quality and tropospheric composition. Through their contribution to the production of tropospheric ozone and secondary organic aerosol (SOA), biogenic VOCs indirectly contribute to climate forcing and climate feedbacks [1]. Biogenic VOCs encompass a wide range of compounds and are produced by plants for growth, development, reproduction, defence and communication [2]. There are both biological and physico-chemical controls on emissions [3]. Only a few of the many biogenic VOCs are of wider interest and only two or three (isoprene and the monoterpenes, α- and β-pinene) are represented in chemical transport models. We use the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), the UK community land surface model, to estimate biogenic VOC emission fluxes. JULES is a process-based model that describes the water, energy and carbon balances and includes temperature, moisture and carbon stores [4, 5]. JULES currently provides emission fluxes of the 4 largest groups of biogenic VOCs: isoprene, terpenes, methanol and acetone. The JULES isoprene scheme uses gross primary productivity (GPP), leaf internal carbon and the leaf temperature as a proxy for the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis [6]. In this study, we compare JULES biogenic VOC emission estimates of isoprene and terepenes with (a) flux measurements made at selected sites in the UK and Europe and (b) gridded estimates for the UK from the EMEP/EMEP4UK atmospheric chemical transport model [7, 8], using site-specific or EMEP4UK driving meteorological data, respectively. We compare the UK-scale emission estimates with literature estimates. We generally find good agreement in the comparisons but the estimates are sensitive to the choice of the base or reference emission potentials. References (1) Unger, 2014: Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 8563, doi:10.1002/2014GL061616; (2) Laothawornkitkul et al., 2009: New Phytol., 183, 27, doi:10.1111/j.1469-8137.2009.02859.x; (3) Grote and Niinemets, 2008: Plant Biol., 10, 8, doi:10.1055/s-2007-964975; (4) Best et al., 2011: Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 677, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-677-2011; (5) Clark et al., 2011: Geosci. Model Dev., 4, 701, doi:10.5194/gmd-4-701-2011; (6) Pacifico et al., 2011: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 4371, doi:10.5194/acp-11-4371-2011; [7] Simpson et al., 2012: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 7825, doi: 10.5194/acp-12-7825-2012; [8] Vieno et al., 2016: Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 265, doi: 10.5194/acp-16-265-2016.

Next generation of CO2 enhanced water recovery with subsurface energy storage in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Qi; Kühn, Michael; Ma, Jianli; Niu, Zhiyong

2017-04-01

Carbon dioxide (CO2) utilization and storage (CCUS) is very popular in comparison with traditional CO2 capture and storage (CCS) in China. In particular, CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers with enhanced water recovery (CO2-EWR) [1] is gaining more and more attention as a cleaner production technology. The CO2-EWR was written into the "U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change" released November 11, 2014. "Both sides will work to manage climate change by demonstrating a new frontier for CO2 use through a carbon capture, use, and sequestration (CCUS) project that will capture and store CO2 while producing fresh water, thus demonstrating power generation as a net producer of water instead of a water consumer. This CCUS project with enhanced water recovery will eventually inject about 1.0 million tonnes of CO2 and create approximately 1.4 million cubic meters of freshwater per year." In this article, at first we reviewed the history of the CO2-EWR and addressed its current status in China. Then, we put forth a new generation of the CO2-EWR with emphasizing the collaborative solutions between carbon emission reductions and subsurface energy storage or renewable energy cycle [2]. Furthermore, we figured out the key challenging problems such as water-CCUS nexus when integrating the CO2-EWR with the coal chemical industry in the Junggar Basin, Xinjiang, China [3-5]. Finally, we addressed some crucial problems and strategic consideration of the CO2-EWR in China with focuses on its technical bottleneck, relative advantage, early opportunities, environmental synergies and other related issues. This research is not only very useful for the current development of CCUS in the relative "cold season" but also beneficial for the energy security and clean production in China. [1] Li Q, Wei Y-N, Liu G, Shi H (2015) CO2-EWR: a cleaner solution for coal chemical industry in China. Journal of Cleaner Production 103:330-337. doi:10.1016/j.jclepro.2014.09.073 [2] Streibel M., Nakaten N., Kempka T., Kühn M. (2013) Analysis of an integrated carbon cycle for storage of renewables. Energy Procedia 40, 202-211. doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2013.08.024. [3] Li Q, Wei Y-N, Liu G, Lin Q (2014) Combination of CO2 Geological Storage with Deep Saline Water Recovery in Western China: Insights from Numerical Analyses. Applied Energy 116:101-110. doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2013.11.050 [4] Wei N, Li X, Fang Z, Bai B, Li Q, Liu S, Jia Y (2015) Regional Resource Distribution of Onshore Carbon Geological Utilization in China. Journal of CO2 Utilization 11:20-30. doi:10.1016/j.jcou.2014.12.005 [5] Li Q, Wei Y-N, Chen Z-A (2016) Water-CCUS Nexus: Challenges and Opportunities of China's Coal Chemical Industry. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy 18 (3):775-786. doi:10.1007/s10098-015-1049-z

Pollution and Climate Effects on Tree-Ring Nitrogen Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savard, M. M.; Bégin, C.; Marion, J.; Smirnoff, A.

2009-04-01

BACKGROUND Monitoring of nitrous oxide concentration only started during the last 30 years in North America, but anthropogenic atmospheric nitrogen has been significantly emitted over the last 150 years. Can geochemical characteristics of tree rings be used to infer past changes in the nitrogen cycle of temperate regions? To address this question we use nitrogen stable isotopes in 125 years-long ring series from beech specimens (Fagus grandifolia) of the Georgian Bay Islands National Park (eastern Ontario), and pine (Pinus strobus) and beech trees of the Arboretum Morgan near Montreal (western Quebec). To evaluate the reliability of the N stable isotopes in wood treated for removal of soluble materials, we tested both tree species from the Montreal area. The reproducibility from tree to tree was excellent for both pine and beech trees, the isotopic trends were strongly concordant, and they were not influenced by the heartwood-sapwood transition zone. The coherence of changes of the isotopic series observed for the two species suggests that their tree-ring N isotopic values can serve as environmental indicator. RESULTS AND INTERPRETATION In Montreal and Georgian Bay, the N isotopes show strong and similar parallel agreement (Gleichlaufigkeit test) with the climatic parameters. So in fact, the short-term isotopic fluctuations correlate directly with summer precipitation and inversely with summer and spring temperature. A long-term decreasing isotope trend in Montreal indicates progressive changes in soil chemistry after 1951. A pedochemical change is also inferred for the Georgian Bay site on the basis of a positive N isotopic trend initiated after 1971. At both sites, the long-term ^15N series correlate with a proxy for NOx emissions (Pearson correlation), and carbon-isotope ring series suggest that the same trees have been impacted by phytotoxic pollutants (Savard et al., 2009a). We propose that the contrasted long-term nitrogen-isotope changes of Montreal and Georgian Bay reflect deposition of NOx emissions from cars and coal-power plants, with higher proportions from coal burning in Georgian Bay (Savard et al., 2009b). This interpretation is conceivable because recent monitoring indicates that coal-power plant NOx emissions play an important role in the annual N budget in Ontario, but they are negligible on the Quebec side. CONCLUSION Interpretations of long tree-ring N isotopic series in terms of effects generated by airborne N-species have been previously advocated. Here we further propose that the contrasted isotopic trends obtained for wood samples from two regions reflect different regional anthropogenic N deposition combined with variations of climatic conditions. This research suggests that nitrogen tree-ring series may record both regional climatic conditions and anthropogenic perturbations of the N cycle. REFERENCES Savard, M.M., Bégin,C., Marion, J., Aznar, J.-C., Smirnoff, A., 2009a. Changes of Air Quality in an urban region as inferred from tree-ring width and stable isotopes. Chapter 9 in "Relating Atmospheric Source Apportionment to Vegetation Effects: Establishing Cause Effect Relationships" (A. Legge ed.). Elsevier, Amsterdam; doi: 10.1016/S1474-8177(08)00209x. Savard, M.M., Bégin, C., Smirnoff, A., Marion, J., Rioux-Paquette, E., 2009b. Tree-ring nitrogen isotopes reflect climatic effects and anthropogenic NOx emissions. Env. Sci. Tech (doi: 10.1021/es802437k).

Projection of Summer Climate on Tokyo Metropolitan Area using Pseudo Global Warming Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adachi, S. A.; Kimura, F.; Kusaka, H.; Hara, M.

2010-12-01

Recent surface air temperature observations in most of urban areas show the remarkable increasing trend affected by the global warming and the heat island effects. There are many populous areas in Japan. In such areas, the effects of land-use change and urbanization on the local climate are not negligible (Fujibe, 2010). The heat stress for citizen there is concerned to swell moreover in the future. Therefore, spatially detailed climate projection is required for making adaptation and mitigation plans. This study focuses on the Tokyo metropolitan area (TMA) in summer and aims to estimate the local climate change over the TMA in 2070s using a regional climate model. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) was used for downscaling. A single layer urban canopy model (Kusaka et al., 2001) is built into RAMS as a parameterization expressing the features of urban surface. We performed two experiments for estimating present and future climate. In the present climate simulation, the initial and boundary conditions for RAMS are provided from the JRA-25/JCDAS. On the other hand, the Pseudo Global Warming (PGW) method (Sato et al., 2007) is applied to estimate the future climate, instead of the conventional dynamical downscaling method. The PGW method is expected to reduce the model biases in the future projection estimated by Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM). The boundary conditions used in the PGW method is given by the PGW data, which are obtained by adding the climate monthly difference between 1990s and 2070s estimated by AOGCMs to the 6-hourly reanalysis data. In addition, the uncertainty in the regional climate projection depending on the AOGCM projections is estimated from additional downscaling experiments using the different PGW data obtained from five AOGCMs. Acknowledgment: This work was supported by the Global Environment Research Fund (S-5-3) of the Ministry of the Environment, Japan. References: 1. Fujibe, F., Int. J. Climatol., doi:10.1002/joc.2142 (2010). 2. Kusaka, H., H. Kondo, Y. Kikegawa, and F. Kimura, Bound.-Layer Meteor., 101, 329-358 (2001). 3. Sato, T., F. Kimura, and A. Kitoh, J. Hydrology, 144-154 (2007).

Scepticism and trust: two counterpoint essentials in science education for complex socio-scientific issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fensham, Peter J.

2014-09-01

In this response to Tom G. K. Bryce and Stephen P. Day's (Cult Stud Sci Educ. doi: 10.1007/s11422-013-9500-0, 2013) original article, I share with them their interest in the teaching of climate change in school science, but I widen it to include other contemporary complex socio-scientific issues that also need to be discussed. I use an alternative view of the relationship between science, technology and society, supported by evidence from both science and society, to suggest science-informed citizens as a more realistic outcome image of school science than the authors' one of mini-scientists. The intellectual independence of students Bryce and Day assume, and intend for school science, is countered with an active intellectual dependence. It is only in relation to emerging and uncertain scientific contexts that students should be taught about scepticism, but they also need to learn when, and why to trust science as an antidote to the expressions of doubting it. Some suggestions for pedagogies that could lead to these new learnings are made. The very recent fifth report of the IPCC answers many of their concerns about climate change.

Global drivers of the stratospheric polar vortex via nonlinear causal discovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kretschmer, M.; Runge, J.; Coumou, D.

2016-12-01

The stratospheric polar vortex plays a major role in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, especially in driving extreme weather conditions. Many different global drivers, from Arctic sea ice to tropical climate patterns, are hypothesized to influence its stability, including linear and nonlinear mechanisms. Here a novel causal discovery approach, extending previous work [1], that is adapted to the particular challenges posed by such a high-dimensional dataset comprised of multiple, possibly nonlinearly coupled time series is demonstrated. While links in the reconstructed network can be called causal only with respect to the set of analyzed variables, the absence of causal links allows to assess where physical mechanisms are unlikely.The present work confirms recent results obtained with a similar, but linear, approach [2], regarding the impact of Barents and Kara sea ice concentrations, and extends the analysis also to tropical drivers to cover more proposed mechanisms. [1] Jakob Runge, Vladimir Petoukhov, and Jürgen Kurths, 2014: Quantifying the Strength and Delay of Climatic Interactions: The Ambiguities of Cross Correlation and a Novel Measure Based on Graphical Models. J. Climate 27, 720-739, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00159.1.[2] Marlene Kretschmer, Dim Coumou, Jonathan F. Donges, and Jakob Runge, 2016: Using Causal Effect Networks to Analyze Different Arctic Drivers of Midlatitude Winter Circulation. J. Climate 29, 4069-4081, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0654.1.

An enhanced forest classification scheme for modeling vegetation-climate interactions based on national forest inventory data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Majasalmi, Titta; Eisner, Stephanie; Astrup, Rasmus; Fridman, Jonas; Bright, Ryan M.

2018-01-01

Forest management affects the distribution of tree species and the age class of a forest, shaping its overall structure and functioning and in turn the surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass, energy, and momentum. In order to attribute climate effects to anthropogenic activities like forest management, good accounts of forest structure are necessary. Here, using Fennoscandia as a case study, we make use of Fennoscandic National Forest Inventory (NFI) data to systematically classify forest cover into groups of similar aboveground forest structure. An enhanced forest classification scheme and related lookup table (LUT) of key forest structural attributes (i.e., maximum growing season leaf area index (LAImax), basal-area-weighted mean tree height, tree crown length, and total stem volume) was developed, and the classification was applied for multisource NFI (MS-NFI) maps from Norway, Sweden, and Finland. To provide a complete surface representation, our product was integrated with the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative Land Cover (ESA CCI LC) map of present day land cover (v.2.0.7). Comparison of the ESA LC and our enhanced LC products (https://doi.org/10.21350/7zZEy5w3) showed that forest extent notably (κ = 0.55, accuracy 0.64) differed between the two products. To demonstrate the potential of our enhanced LC product to improve the description of the maximum growing season LAI (LAImax) of managed forests in Fennoscandia, we compared our LAImax map with reference LAImax maps created using the ESA LC product (and related cross-walking table) and PFT-dependent LAImax values used in three leading land models. Comparison of the LAImax maps showed that our product provides a spatially more realistic description of LAImax in managed Fennoscandian forests compared to reference maps. This study presents an approach to account for the transient nature of forest structural attributes due to human intervention in different land models.

Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mayewski, Paul Andrew

2016-04-01

The demonstration using Greenland ice cores that abrupt shifts in climate, Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events, existed during the last glacial period has had a transformational impact on our understanding of climate change in the naturally forced world. The demonstration that D-O events are globally distributed and that they operated during previous glacial periods has led to extensive research into the relative hemispheric timing and causes of these events. The emergence of civilization during our current interglacial, the Holocene, has been attributed to the "relative climate quiescence" of this period relative to the massive, abrupt shifts in climate that characterized glacial periods in the form of D-O events. But, everything is relative and climate change is no exception. The demise of past civilizations, (eg., Mesopatamian, Mayan and Norse) is integrally tied to abrupt climate change (ACC) events operating at regional scales. Regionally to globally distributed ACC events have punctuated the Holocene and extreme events have always posed significant challenges to humans and ecosystems. Current warming of the Arctic, in terms of length of the summer season, is as abrupt and massive, albeit not as extensive, as the transition from the last major D-O event, the Younger Dryas into the Holocene (Mayewski et al., 2013). Tropospheric source greenhouse gas rise and ozone depletion in the stratosphere over Antarctica are triggers for the modern advent of human emission instigated ACCs. Arctic warming and Antarctic ozone depletion have resulted in significance changes to the atmospheric circulation systems that transport heat, moisture, and pollutants in both hemispheres. Climate models offer a critical tool for assessing trends, but they cannot as yet predict ACC events, as evidenced by the inability of these models to predict the rapid onset of Arctic warming and resulting changes in atmospheric circulation; and in the model vs past analog differences in projections for the state of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere that will result as a consequence of greenhouse gas rise and "healing" of the Antarctic ozone hole (Mayewski et al., 2015). Climate change perspective gained from instrumentally calibrated ice core and other past climate proxies is essential to the construction of plausible scenarios for future climate and actionable planning. More ACC events are in our future and the early manifestation of these events is apparent in the emerging change in the severity and frequency of extreme events. Searching for a precursor for ACC events is a major challenge for the scientific community and humanity. For the climate community to undertake this challenge it is necessary to investigate both past and present sub-seasonal and longer extreme events associated with past D-O and ACC events and their impact on societies. Examples of sub-seasonal scale investigation of these events will be included in the presentation. Mayewski, P.A., Sneed, S.B., Birkel, S.D., Kurbatov, A.V. and Maasch, Holocene warming marked by longer summers and reduced storm frequency around Greenland, Journal of Quaternary Science, 267-8179. DOl: I 0.1002/jqs.2684, 2013. Mayewski, P.A., Bertler, N., Birkel, S., Bracegirdle, T., Carleton, A., England, M., Goodwin, I., Kang, J-H., Mayewski, P., Russell, J., Schneider, S., Turner, J. and Vellicogna, I., 2015, Potential for Southern Hemisphere climate surprises, Journal of Quaternary Science (Rapid Communication) 30, 391-395, DOI: 10.1002/jqs.2794.

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in surface and deep ocean temperature and salinity fields from unperturbed climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zanchettin, D.; Jungclaus, J. H.

2013-12-01

Large multidecadal fluctuations in basin-average sea-surface temperature (SST) are a known feature of observed, reconstructed and simulated variability in the North Atlantic Ocean. This phenomenon is often referred to as Multidecadal Atlantic Variability or AMV. Historical AMV fluctuations are associated with analog basin-scale changes in sea-surface salinity, so that warming corresponds to salinification and cooling to freshening [Polyakov et al., 2005]. The surface imprint of the AMV further corresponds to same-sign fluctuations in the shallow ocean and with opposite-sign fluctuations in the deep ocean for both temperature and salinity [Polyakov et al., 2005]. This out-of-phase behavior reflects the thermohaline overturning circulation shaping North Atlantic's low-frequency variability. Several processes contribute to the AMV, involving both ocean-atmosphere coupled processes and deep ocean circulation [e.g., Grossmann and Klotzbach, 2009]. In particular, recirculation in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre region of salinity anomalies from Arctic freshwater export may trigger multidecadal variability in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and therefore may be part of the AMV [Jungclaus et al., 2005; Dima and Lohmann, 2007]. With this contribution, we aim to improve the physical interpretation of the AMV by investigating spatial and temporal patterns of temperature and salinity fields in the shallow and deep ocean. We focus on two unperturbed millennial-scale simulations performed with the Max Planck Institute Earth system model in its paleo (MPI-ESM-P) and low-resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) configurations, which provide reference control climates for assessments of pre-industrial and historical climate simulations. The two model configurations only differ for the presence, in MPI-ESM-LR, of an active module for dynamical vegetation. We use spatial-average indices and empirical orthogonal functions/principal components to track the horizontal and vertical propagation of temperature and salinity anomalies related to the AMV. In particular, we discuss the potential predictability of multidecadal fluctuations in North Atlantic SSTs based on indices derived from the sea-surface salinity field. We show how the two simulations provide AMV realizations with some distinguishable characteristics, e.g., the typical fluctuations' frequencies and the linkage with the North Atlantic meridional overturning and gyre circulations. We further show how information gained by investigating different definitions of the AMV [Zanchettin et al., 2013] helps designing numerical sensitivity studies for understanding the mechanism(s) behind this phenomenon, concerning both its origin and global impacts. References Dima, M., and G. Lohmann [2007], J. Clim., 20, 2706-2719, doi:10.1175/JCLI4174.1 Jungclaus, J.H., et al. [2005], J. Clim., 18, 4013- 4031, doi:10.1175/JCLI3462.1 Polyakov, I. V., et al. [2005], J. Clim., 18:4562-4581 Grossmann, I., and P. J. Klotzbach [2009], J. Geophys. Res., 114, D24107, doi:10.1029/2009JD012728 Zanchettin D., et al. [2013], Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1669-0

Projections of long-term changes in solar radiation based on CMIP5 climate models and their influence on energy yields of photovoltaic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin; Folini, Doris; Henschel, Florian; Müller, Björn

2015-04-01

Traditionally, for the planning and assessment of solar energy systems, the amount of solar radiation (sunlight) incident on the Earth's surface is assumed to be constant over the years. However, with changing climate and air pollution levels, solar resources may no longer be stable over time and undergo substantial decadal changes. Observational records covering the past decades confirm long-term changes in this quantity. Here we examine, how the latest generation of climate models used for the 5th IPCC report projects potential changes in surface solar radiation over the coming decades, and how this may affect, in combination with the expected greenhouse warming, solar power output from photovoltaic (PV) systems. For this purpose, projections up to the mid 21th century from 39 state of the art climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) are analysed globally and for selected key regions with major solar power production capacity. The large model ensemble allows to assess the degree of consistency of their projections. Models are largely consistent in the sign of the projected changes in solar radiation under cloud-free conditions as well as in surface temperatures over most of the globe, while still reasonably consistent over a considerable part of the globe in the sign of changes in cloudiness and associated changes in solar radiation. A first order estimate of the impact of solar radiation and temperature changes on energy yields of PV systems under the RPC8.5 scenario indicates statistically significant decreases in PV outputs in large parts of the world, but notable exceptions with positive trends in parts of Europe and the South-East of China. Projected changes between 2006 and 2049 under the RCP8.5 scenario overall are on the order of 1 % per decade for horizontal planes, but may be larger for tilted or tracked planes as well as on shorter (decadal) timescales. Related References: Wild, M., Folini, D., Henschel, F., and Müller, B. 2015: Projections of long-term changes in solar radiation based on CMIP5 climate models and their influence on energy yields of photovoltaic systems, submitted. Muller, B., Wild, M., Driesse, A., and Behrens, K., 2014: Rethinking solar resource assessments in the context of global dimming and brightening, Solar Energy, 99, 272-282. Wild, M. 2012: Enlightening Global Dimming and Brightening. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 27-37, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00074.1

Impacts of weather on long-term patterns of plant richness and diversity vary with location and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jonas, Jayne L.; Buhl, Deborah A.; Symstad, Amy J.

2015-01-01

Better understanding the influence of precipitation and temperature on plant assemblages is needed to predict the effects of climate change. Many studies have examined the relationship between plant productivity and weather (primarily precipitation), but few have directly assessed the relationship between plant richness or diversity and weather despite their increased use as metrics of ecosystem condition. We focus on the grasslands of central North America, which are characterized by high temporal climatic variability. Over the next 100 years, these grasslands are predicted to experience further increased variability in growing season precipitation, as well as increased temperatures, due to global climate change. We assess 1) the portion of interannual variability of richness and diversity explained by weather, 2) how relationships between these metrics and weather vary among plant assemblages, and 3) which aspects of weather best explain temporal variability. We used an information-theoretic approach to assess relationships between long-term plant richness and diversity patterns and a priori weather covariates using six datasets from four grasslands. Weather explained up to 49% and 63% of interannual variability in total plant species richness and diversity, respectively. However, richness and diversity responses to specific weather variables varied both among sites and among experimental treatments within sites. In general, we found many instances in which temperature was of equal or greater importance as precipitation, as well as evidence of the importance of lagged effects and precipitation or temperature variability. Although precipitation has been shown to be a key driver of productivity in grasslands, our results indicate that increasing temperatures alone, without substantial changes in precipitation patterns, could have measurable effects on Great Plains grassland plant assemblages and biodiversity metrics. Our results also suggest that richness and diversity will respond in unique ways to changing climate and management can affect these responses; additional research and monitoring will be essential for further understanding of these complex relationships.Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-1989.1

An assessment of global meteorological droughts based on HAPPI experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Wenbin; Sun, Fubao; Lim, Wee Ho; Zhang, Jie

2017-04-01

Droughts caused water shortages could lead to serious consequences on the socioeconomic and environmental well-being. In the context of changing climate, droughts monitoring, attributions and impact assessments have been performed using observations (e.g., Sun et al., 2012; Zhang et al., 2016) and climate model projections (e.g., Liu et al., 2016, 2017); with expectation that such scientific knowledge would feed into long-term adaptation and mitigation plans to tackle potentially unfavorable future drought impacts in a warming world. Inspired by the 2015 Paris Agreement, the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts) experiments were set up to better inform international policymakers about the socioeconomic and environmental impacts under less severe global warming conditions. This study aims to understand the potential shift in meteorological droughts from the past into the future on a global scale. Based on the HAPPI data, we evaluate the change in drought related indices (i.e., PET/P, PDSI) from the past to the future scenarios (1.5 and 2 degrees Celsius warming). Here we present some early results (MIROC5 as demonstration) on identified hotspots and discuss the differences in severity of droughts between these warming worlds and associated consequences. References: Liu W, and Sun F, 2017. Projecting and attributing future changes of evaporative demand over China in CMIP5 climate models, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0204.1 Liu W, and Sun F, 2016. Assessing estimates of evaporative demand in climate models using observed pan evaporation over China. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere 121, 8329-8349 Zhang J, Sun F, Xu J, Chen Y, Sang Y, -F, and Liu C, 2016. Dependence of trends in and sensitivity of drought over China (1961-2013) on potential evaporation model. Geophysical Research Letters 43, 206-213 Sun F, Roderick M, Farquhar G, 2012. Changes in the variability of global land precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters 39, L19402

Multiproxy reconstruction of tropical Pacific Holocene temperature gradients and water column structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arbuszewski, J. A.; Oppo, D.; Huang, K.; Dubois, N.; Galy, V.; Mohtadi, M.; Herbert, T.; Rosenthal, Y.; Linsley, B. K.

2012-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent mode of tropical Pacific climate variability and has the potential to significantly impact the climate of the Indo-Pacific region and globally1. In the past, the mean state of the Pacific Ocean has, at times, resembled El Niño or La Niña conditions2. Although the dynamical relationships responsible for these changes have been studied through paleoproxy reconstructions and climate modeling, many questions remain. Recent paleoproxy based studies of tropical Pacific hydrology and surface temperature variability have hypothesized that observed climatological changes over the Holocene are directly linked to ENSO and/or mean state variability, complementing studies that dynamically relate centennial scale ENSO variability to mean state changes3-8. These studies have suggested that mid Holocene ENSO variability was low and the mean state was more "La Niña" like3-6. In the late Holocene, paleoproxy data has been interpreted as indicating an increase in ENSO variability with a more moderate mean ocean state3-6. However, alternative explanations could exist. Here, we test the hypothesis that observed climatological changes in the eastern tropical Pacific are related to mean state or ENSO variability during the Holocene. We focus our study on two sets of cores from the equatorial Pacific, with one located in the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool (BJ803-119 GGC, 117MC, sedimentation rates ~29 cm/kyr) and the other just off the Galapagos in the heart of the Eastern Cold Tongue (KNR195-5 43 GGC, 42MC, sedimentation rates ~20cm/kyr). The western site lies in the region predicted by models to show the greatest variations in temperature and water column structure in response to mean state changes, while the eastern site lies in the area most prone to changes due to ENSO variability7. Together, these sites allow us the best chance to robustly reconstruct ENSO and mean state related changes. We use a multiproxy approach and consider records from organic (sterol abundances) and inorganic proxies (Mg/Ca and δ18O of 3 planktonic foraminiferal species, % G. bulloides) to reconstruct zonal tropical Pacific (sub)surface temperature and stratification gradients over the Holocene. A benefit of using this approach is that it enables us to combine the strengths of each individual proxy to derive more robust records. We will compare our records with published paleoproxy and model studies in the Pacific and Indo-Pacific regions. Armed with this information, we aim to better understand mean state changes in the tropical Pacific over the Holocene. 1 Ropelewski, C. F. & Halpert, M. S. Monthly Weather Review 115, 1606-1626 (1987). 2 Collins, M. et al. Nature Geoscience 3, doi: 10.1038/NGEO1868 (2010). 3 Koutavas, A., Lynch-Steiglitz, J., Marchitto, T. & Sachs, J. Science 297, 226-230 (2002). 4 Moy, C. M., Seltzer, G. O., Rodbell, D. T. & Anderson, D. M. Nature 420, 162-165 (2002). 5 Conroy, J. L., Overpeck, J. T., Cole, J. E., Shanahan, T. M. & Steinitz-Kannan, M. Quaternary Science Reviews 27, 1166-1180 (2008). 6 Makou, M. C., Eglinton, T. I., Oppo, D. W. & Hughen, K. A. Geology 38, 43-46 (2010). 7 Karnauskas, K., Smerdon, J., Seager, R. & Gonzalez-Rouco, J. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1178/JCLI-D-1111-00421.00421 (2012 (in press)). 8 Clement, A., Seager, R. & Cane, M. Paleoceanography 14, 441-456 (2000).

Arctic sea-ice melting: Effects on hydroclimatic variability and on UV-induced carbon cycling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulzberger, Barbara

2016-04-01

Since 1980 both the perennial and the multiyear central Arctic sea ice areas have declined by approximately 13 and 15% per decade, respectively (IPCC, 2013). Arctic sea-ice melting has led to an increase in the amplitude of the Northern Hemisphere jet stream and, as a consequence, in more slowly moving Rossby waves which results in blocking of weather patterns such as heat waves, droughts, cold spells, and heavy precipitation events (Francis and Vavrus, 2012). Changing Rossby waves account for more than 30% of the precipitation variability over several regions of the northern middle and high latitudes, including the US northern Great Plains and parts of Canada, Europe, and Russia (Schubert et al., 2011). From 2007 to 2013, northern Europe experienced heavy summer precipitation events that were unprecedented in over a century, concomitant with Arctic sea ice loss (Screen, 2013). Heavy precipitation events tend to increase the runoff intensity of terrigenous dissolved organic matter (tDOM) (Haaland et al., 2010). In surface waters tDOM is subject to UV-induced oxidation to produce atmospheric CO2. Mineralization of DOM also occurs via microbial respiration. However, not all chemical forms of DOM are available to bacterioplankton. UV-induced transformations generally increase the bioavailability of tDOM (Sulzberger and Durisch-Kaiser, 2009). Mineralization of tDOM is an important source of atmospheric CO2 and this process is likely to contribute to positive feedbacks on global warming (Erickson et al., 2015). However, the magnitudes of these potential feedbacks remain unexplored. This paper will discuss the following items: 1.) Links between Arctic sea-ice melting, heavy precipitation events, and enhanced tDOM runoff. 2.) UV-induced increase in the bioavailability of tDOM. 3.) UV-mediated feedbacks on global warming. References Erickson, D. J. III, B. Sulzberger, R. G. Zepp, A. T. Austin (2015), Effects of stratospheric ozone depletion, solar UV radiation, and climate change on biogeochemical cycling: interactions and feedbacks, Photochemical & Photobiological Sciences, 14(1), 127-148. Francis, J. A., S. J. Vavrus (2012), Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes, Geophysical Research Letters, 39, doi: 10.1029/2012GL051000. Haaland, S., D. Hongve, H. Laudon, G. Riise, R. D. Vogt (2010), Quantifying the drivers of the increasing colored organic matter in boreal surface waters, Environmental Science & Technology, 44(8), 2975-2980. IPCC Climate Change 2013 - The Physical Science Bases (2013). Schubert, S., H. Wang, M. Suarez (2011), Warm season subseasonal variability and climate extremes in the Northern Hemisphere: The role of stationary Rossby waves, Journal of Climate, 24(18), 4773-4792. Screen, J. A. (2013), Influence of Arctic sea ice on European summer precipitation, Environmental Research Letters, 8(4), doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044015. Sulzberger, B., E. Durisch-Kaiser (2009), Chemical characterization of dissolved organic matter (DOM): A prerequisite for understanding UV-induced changes of DOM absorption properties and bioavailability, Aquatic Sciences, 71(2), 104-126.

Multiple abiotic stimuli are integrated in the regulation of rice gene expression under field conditions

PubMed Central

Plessis, Anne; Hafemeister, Christoph; Wilkins, Olivia; Gonzaga, Zennia Jean; Meyer, Rachel Sarah; Pires, Inês; Müller, Christian; Septiningsih, Endang M; Bonneau, Richard; Purugganan, Michael

2015-01-01

Plants rely on transcriptional dynamics to respond to multiple climatic fluctuations and contexts in nature. We analyzed the genome-wide gene expression patterns of rice (Oryza sativa) growing in rainfed and irrigated fields during two distinct tropical seasons and determined simple linear models that relate transcriptomic variation to climatic fluctuations. These models combine multiple environmental parameters to account for patterns of expression in the field of co-expressed gene clusters. We examined the similarities of our environmental models between tropical and temperate field conditions, using previously published data. We found that field type and macroclimate had broad impacts on transcriptional responses to environmental fluctuations, especially for genes involved in photosynthesis and development. Nevertheless, variation in solar radiation and temperature at the timescale of hours had reproducible effects across environmental contexts. These results provide a basis for broad-based predictive modeling of plant gene expression in the field. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08411.001 PMID:26609814

Providing farmers, ranchers, and foresters in California with actionable climate information: opportunities and obstacles for California's USDA Regional Climate Sub Hub

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerr, A. C.; Steenwerth, K. L.; Stine, P.; Chambers, J.; Fischer, C.; Kiger, L.; Hedt, T.; Gonzales, O.; Tse, R.; Tse, A.; Gunasekara, A.; Henly, R.; DeLaRosa, J.; Battany, M.; Pathak, T.; Parker, D.; Schwartz, M.; Tjeerdema, R.; Kalansky, J.; Kehmeier, E.; Xides, A.; Marshall, A.; Jagannathan, K.

2015-12-01

California is the #1 agricultural state in the US, with output worth $50 billion in 2014. California produces half the nation's specialty crops (fruits, vegetables, and nuts) and is a leader in beef and dairy production. California also has 10% of the forestland west of the Mississippi, including many economically and ecologically important forest types. The USDA Regional Climate Sub Hub for California was created in 2014 to help land users (farmers, ranchers, and forest land owners) cope with climate variability and change, via two-way linkages with producers of climate information. In its first year and a half, the Sub Hub has formed partnerships with California's many other climate-focused organizations, including state and federal government, universities, and NGOs. The Sub Hub coordinates climate-related work among several USDA agencies (ARS, FS, NRCS, and others), which formerly had no mechanism to do so. The Sub Hub also works with other federal climate programs (such as the DOI's CA Landscape Conservation Cooperative, with which the Sub Hub is engaged in a multi-year assessment to balance conservation and agriculture in the Central Valley). State government agencies, such as the Natural Resources Agency and the Department of Food and Agriculture, are key partners for priority-setting and data-sharing. One of the Sub Hub's crucial synergies is with UC Cooperative Extension, which provides insight into land users' needs and provides an outlet to deliver Sub Hub products on the ground. In response to stakeholder concerns, the Sub Hub's 2015-16 emphasis is the ongoing California drought. The Sub Hub's current stakeholder-focused projects include (1) a climate vulnerability assessment of California rangelands, including detailed maps of likely vegetation change and suggestions for location-specific adaptation options; (2) a comprehensive climate-related update of Cooperative Extension's widely used Forest Stewardship Series for private landowners; (3) a study on climate information needs of California nut growers; and (4) a series of sector-specific fact sheets on drought impacts and adaptation. To succeed, these efforts must acknowledge that land users do not seek climate information in isolation; rather, they need to integrate it with other components of their decision-making.

The Effect of Solar Forcing on the Greenland Ice Sheet during the Holocene - A Model Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bügelmayer, Marianne; Roche, Didier; Renssen, Hans

2014-05-01

Abrupt climate changes did not only happen during glacials but also during interglacials such as the Holocene. Marine sediments provide evidence for the periodic occurrence of centennial-scale events with enhanced iceberg discharge during the past 11.000 years (Bond et al., 2001). These events were chronologically linked to reduced solar activity as reconstructed using cosmogenic isotopes (Bond et al., 2001), indicating that even an external forcing that is considered to be small, has a potential impact on climate due to several feedback mechanisms (Renssen et al., 2006). The interactions between climate and solar irradiance have been investigated using numerical models (e.g. Haigh, 1996; Renssen et al, 2006), but so far without dynamically computing the Greenland ice sheet and iceberg calving. Thus, the impact of solar variations on iceberg discharge and the underlying mechanisms have not been analysed so far. To analyse the effect of variations in solar activity on the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) and the iceberg calving, as well as possible feedback mechanisms that enhance the impact of the total solar irradiance, we use the earth system model of intermediate complexity (iLOVECLIM, Roche et al., 2013), coupled to the ice sheet/ice shelf model GRISLI (Ritz et al., 2001) and to a dynamic-thermodynamic iceberg module (Jongma et al., 2009, Bügelmayer et al., 2014) to perform transient experiments of the last 6000 years. The experiments are conducted applying reconstructed atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, volcanic aerosol loads, orbital parameters and variations in the total solar irradiance. We present the response of the coupled model to different solar irradiance scenarios to evaluate modeled GIS sensitivity to relatively modest variations in radiative forcing. Moreover, we investigate the dependence of the model results on the chosen model sensitivity. References: Bond, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M. N., Showers, W., … Bonani, G. (2001): Persistent solar influence on North Atlantic climate during the Holocene. Science (New York, N.Y.), 294(5549), 2130-6. doi:10.1126/science.1065680 Bügelmayer, M., Roche, D.M., Renssen, H. (2014): How do icebergs affect the Greenland ice sheet under pre-industrial conditions? - A model study with a fully coupled ice sheet-climate model. The Cryosphere Discussions 8, 187-228. Haigh, J. D. (1996): The Impact of Solar Variability on Climate. Science, 272, 981-984. Jongma, J.I., Driesschaert, E., Fichefet, T., Goosse, H., Renssen, H., (2009): The effect of dynamic-thermodynamic icebergs on the Southern Ocean climate in a three-dimensional model. Ocean Modelling 26, 104-113. Renssen, H., Goosse, H., Muscheler, R., & Branch, R. (2006): Coupled climate model simulation of Holocene cooling events: oceanic feedback amplifies solar forcing. Climate of the Past, 2, 79-90. Ritz, C., Rommelaere, V. and Dumas, C.(2001): Modeling the evolution of Antarctic ice sheet over the last 420,000 years: Implications for altitude changes in the Vostok region, Journal of Geophysical Research, 106, 31943-31964, doi:10.1029/2001JD900232. Roche, D.M., Dumas, C., Bügelmayer, M., Charbit, S., Ritz, C. (2013): Adding a dynamical cryosphere into iLOVECLIM (version 1.0) - Part 1: Coupling with the GRISLI ice-sheet model, Geoscientific Model Development Discussion, 6, 5215-5249.

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Vink, Jan K.; Horton, Radley M.; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A.; Francis, Joe D.; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

Background: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. Objectives: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. Methods: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature–mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. Conclusions: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47–55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166 PMID:27337737

Towards More Comprehensive Projections of Urban Heat-Related Mortality: Estimates for New York City under Multiple Population, Adaptation, and Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Vink, Jan K; Horton, Radley M; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bader, Daniel A; Francis, Joe D; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and future demographics. The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on future health burdens. We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature-mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. Citation: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHP166.

Improving plot- and regional-scale crop models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, F.; Rötter, R.

2013-12-01

Many studies on global climate report that climate variability is increasing with more frequent and intense extreme events1. There are quite large uncertainties from both the plot- and regional-scale models in simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes on crop development, growth and productivity2,3. One key to reducing the uncertainties is better exploitation of experimental data to eliminate crop model deficiencies and develop better algorithms that more adequately capture the impacts of extreme events, such as high temperature and drought, on crop performance4,5. In the present study, in a first step, the inter-annual variability in wheat yield and climate from 1971 to 2012 in Finland was investigated. Using statistical approaches the impacts of climate variability and extremes on wheat growth and productivity were quantified. In a second step, a plot-scale model, WOFOST6, and a regional-scale crop model, MCWLA7, were calibrated and validated, and applied to simulate wheat growth and yield variability from 1971-2012. Next, the estimated impacts of high temperature stress, cold damage, and drought stress on crop growth and productivity based on the statistical approaches, and on crop simulation models WOFOST and MCWLA were compared. Then, the impact mechanisms of climate extremes on crop growth and productivity in the WOFOST model and MCWLA model were identified, and subsequently, the various algorithm and impact functions were fitted against the long-term crop trial data. Finally, the impact mechanisms, algorithms and functions in WOFOST model and MCWLA model were improved to better simulate the impacts of climate variability and extremes, particularly high temperature stress, cold damage and drought stress for location-specific and large area climate impact assessments. Our studies provide a good example of how to improve, in parallel, the plot- and regional-scale models for simulating impacts of climate variability and extremes, as needed for better informed decision-making on adaptation strategies. References 1. Coumou, D. & Rahmstorf, S. A decade of extremes. Nature Clim. Change, 2, 491-496 (2012). 2. Rötter, R. P., Carter, T. R., Olesen, J. E. & Porter, J. R. Crop-climate models need an overhaul. Nature Clim. Change, 1, 175-177 (2011). 3. Asseng, S. et al., Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change. Nature Clim. Change. 10.1038/nclimate1916. (2013). 4. Porter, J.R., & Semenov, M., Crop responses to climatic variation . Trans. R. Soc. B., 360, 2021-2035 (2005). 5. Porter, J.R. & Christensen, S. Deconstructing crop processes and models via identities. Plant, Cell and Environment . doi: 10.1111/pce.12107 (2013). 6. Boogaard, H.L., van Diepen C.A., Rötter R.P., Cabrera J.M. & van Laar H.H. User's guide for the WOFOST 7.1 crop growth simulation model and Control Center 1.5, Alterra, Wageningen, The Netherlands. (1998) 7. Tao, F. & Zhang, Z. Climate change, wheat productivity and water use in the North China Plain: a new super-ensemble-based probabilistic projection. Agric. Forest Meteorol., 170, 146-165. (2013).

Role of clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interaction in 20th century simulations with GISS ModelE2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nazarenko, L.; Rind, D. H.; Bauer, S.; Del Genio, A. D.

2015-12-01

Simulations of aerosols, clouds and their interaction contribute to the major source of uncertainty in predicting the changing Earth's energy and in estimating future climate. Anthropogenic contribution of aerosols affects the properties of clouds through aerosol indirect effects. Three different versions of NASA GISS global climate model are presented for simulation of the twentieth century climate change. All versions have fully interactive tracers of aerosols and chemistry in both the troposphere and stratosphere. All chemical species are simulated prognostically consistent with atmospheric physics in the model and the emissions of short-lived precursors [Shindell et al., 2006]. One version does not include the aerosol indirect effect on clouds. The other two versions include a parameterization of the interactive first indirect aerosol effect on clouds following Menon et al. [2010]. One of these two models has the Multiconfiguration Aerosol Tracker of Mixing state (MATRIX) that permits detailed treatment of aerosol mixing state, size, and aerosol-cloud activation. The main purpose of this study is evaluation of aerosol-clouds interactions and feedbacks, as well as cloud and aerosol radiative forcings, for the twentieth century climate under different assumptions and parameterizations for aerosol, clouds and their interactions in the climate models. The change of global surface air temperature based on linear trend ranges from +0.8°C to +1.2°C between 1850 and 2012. Water cloud optical thickness increases with increasing temperature in all versions with the largest increase in models with interactive indirect effect of aerosols on clouds, which leads to the total (shortwave and longwave) cloud radiative cooling trend at the top of the atmosphere. Menon, S., D. Koch, G. Beig, S. Sahu, J. Fasullo, and D. Orlikowski (2010), Black carbon aerosols and the third polar ice cap, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10,4559-4571, doi:10.5194/acp-10-4559-2010. Shindell, D., G. Faluvegi, N. Unger, E. Aguilar, G.A. Schmidt, D.M. Koch, S.E. Bauer, and J.R. Miller (2006), Simulations of preindustrial, present-day, and 2100 conditions in the NASA GISS composition and climate model G-PUCCINI, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 4427-4459.

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozdniakov, S.; Lykhina, N.

2010-03-01

Groundwater recharge simulation under the steady-state and transient climate conditions Diffusive groundwater recharge is a vertical water flux through the water table, i.e. through the boundary between the unsaturated and saturated zones. This flux features temporal and spatial changes due to variations in the climatic conditions, landscape the state of vegetation, and the spatial variability of vadoze zone characteristics. In a changing climate the non-steady state series of climatic characteristics will affect on the groundwater recharge.. A well-tested approach to calculating water flux through the vadoze zone is the application of Richard’s equations for a heterogeneous one-domain porosity continuum with specially formulated atmospheric boundary conditions at the ground surface. In this approach the climatic parameters are reflected in upper boundary conditions, while the recharge series is the flux through the low boundary. In this work developed by authors code Surfbal that simulates water cycle at surface of topsoil to take into account the various condition of precipitation transformation at the surface in different seasons under different vegetation cover including snow accumulation in winter and melting in spring is used to generate upper boundary condition at surface of topsoil for world-wide known Hydrus-1D code (Simunek et al, 2008). To estimate the proposal climate change effect we performed Surfbal and Hydrus simulation using the steady state climatic condition and transient condition due to global warming on example of Moscow region, Russia. The following scenario of climate change in 21 century in Moscow region was selected: the annual temperature will increase on 4C during 100 year and annual precipitation will increase on 10% (Solomon et al, 2007). Within the year the maximum increasing of temperature and precipitation falls on winter time, while in middle of summer temperature will remain almost the same as observed now and monthly precipitation. For simulating climate input the weather generator LARSWG (Semenov and Barrow 1997) was trained for generation daily meteorological records for both steady state and transient climatic conditions and two 100 year of meteorological series of minimum and maximum of air temperature, solar radiation and precipitation were generated. The numerical experiment for studying of transient climate on groundwater was performed for typical vadoze zone parameters of western part of Moscow Artesian basin. As the result, the 100 years series of recharge were simulated. Examination of stochastic properties of simulated time-series and comparative analysis series for the transient and for the steady state conditions shows the trend of increasing of recharge in this region in transient climate. Analysis of daily and monthly simulated water balance shows that this increasing is result of winter snow melting and winter infiltration into thaw topsoil. This work was supported by Russian Foundation for Basic Research via grant 08-05-00720a REFERENCES Semenov M.A and Barrow E.M., 1997. Use of a stochastic weather generator in the development of climate change scenarios. Climatic Change, 35:397-414 Šimůnek, J., M. Th. van Genuchten, and M. Šejna, 2008. Development and applications of the HYDRUS and STANMOD software packages, and related codes, Vadose Zone Journal, doi:10.2136/VZJ2007.0077, Special Issue "Vadose Zone Modeling", 7(2), 587-600. Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Technical Summary. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.

Global Implications of late Pleistocene Megafaunal Extinctions in the Holarctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Alan; Turney, Chris

2017-04-01

Improved resolution data from radiocarbon, climate and ancient DNA studies of megafauna and humans is providing the first ability to disentangle the roles of climate change and human impact in the Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions. In the Holarctic we find that megafaunal populations underwent repeated local or global extinctions apparently associated with abrupt, centennial to millennial duration warming events (Dansgaard-Oeschger interstadials). Importantly, the extinction events took place both before and after the arrival of modern humans in the landscape. Here we look at the possible role of human activity in Holarctic and suggest it may be through the disruption of metapopulation processes which stabilize ecosystems and may have evolved to provide resilience to rapid and frequent climate shifts in the past. The observed relationship between climate and humans on megafaunal populations may provide a model for global extinction. Fortunately in this regard, the rapid movement of the first Native Americans throughout both American continents during the Last Deglaciation provides a powerful and unique model system for testing the competing roles on extinction because the opposing climate trends in each hemisphere at the time. Here we show that while megafaunal extinctions were associated with warming trends in both cases, the out-of-phase climate patterns caused the sequence and timing of events to be mirrored, providing a unique high-resolution view of the interactions of human colonization and rapid climate change on megafaunal ecosystems, with implications for future warming scenarios. References: Cooper, A., Turney, C., Hughen, K.A., Brook, B.W., McDonald, H.G., Bradshaw, C.J.A., 2015. Abrupt warming events drove Late Pleistocene Holarctic megafaunal turnover. Science 349, 602-606. Metcalf, J.L., Turney, C., Barnett, R., Martin, F., Bray, S.C., Vilstrup, J.T., Orlando, L., Salas-Gismondi, R., Loponte, D., Medina, M., De Nigris, M., Civalero, T., Fernández, P.M., Gasco, A., Duran, V., Seymour, K.L., Otaola, C., Gil, A., Paunero, R., Prevosti, F.J., Bradshaw, C.J.A., Wheeler, J.C., Borrero, L., Austin, J.J., Cooper, A., 2016. Synergistic roles of climate warming and human occupation in Patagonian megafaunal extinctions during the Last Deglaciation. Science Advances 2, doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1501682.

Implementing DOIs for Oceanographic Satellite Data at PO.DAAC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hausman, J.; Tauer, E.; Chung, N.; Chen, C.; Moroni, D. F.

2013-12-01

The Physical Oceanographic Distributed Active Archive Center (PO.DAAC) is NASA's archive for physical oceanographic satellite data. It distributes over 500 datasets from gravity, ocean wind, sea surface topography, sea ice, ocean currents, salinity, and sea surface temperature satellite missions. A dataset is a collection of granules/files that share the same mission/project, versioning, processing level, spatial, and temporal characteristics. The large number of datasets is partially due to the number of satellite missions, but mostly because a single satellite mission typically has multiple versions or even temporal and spatial resolutions of data. As a result, a user might mistake one dataset for a different dataset from the same satellite mission. Due to the PO.DAAC'S vast variety and volume of data and growing requirements to report dataset usage, it has begun implementing DOIs for the datasets it archives and distributes. However, this was not as simple as registering a name for a DOI and providing a URL. Before implementing DOIs multiple questions needed to be answered. What are the sponsor and end-user expectations regarding DOIs? At what level does a DOI get assigned (dataset, file/granule)? Do all data get a DOI, or only selected data? How do we create a DOI? How do we create landing pages and manage them? What changes need to be made to the data archive, life cycle policy and web portal to accommodate DOIs? What if the data also exists at another archive and a DOI already exists? How is a DOI included if the data were obtained via a subsetting tool? How does a researcher or author provide a unique, definitive reference (standard citation) for a given dataset? This presentation will discuss how these questions were answered through changes in policy, process, and system design. Implementing DOIs is not a trivial undertaking, but as DOIs are rapidly becoming the de facto approach, it is worth the effort. Researchers have historically referenced the source satellite and data center (or archive), but scientific writings do not typically provide enough detail to point to a singular, uniquely identifiable dataset. DOIs provide the means to help researchers be precise in their data citations and provide needed clarity, standardization and permanence.

Wikipedia as a gateway to biomedical research: The relative distribution and use of citations in the English Wikipedia.

PubMed

Maggio, Lauren A; Willinsky, John M; Steinberg, Ryan M; Mietchen, Daniel; Wass, Joseph L; Dong, Ting

2017-01-01

Wikipedia is a gateway to knowledge. However, the extent to which this gateway ends at Wikipedia or continues via supporting citations is unknown. Wikipedia's gateway functionality has implications for information design and education, notably in medicine. This study aims to establish benchmarks for the relative distribution and referral (click) rate of citations-as indicated by presence of a Digital Object Identifier (DOI)-from Wikipedia, with a focus on medical citations. DOIs referred from the English Wikipedia in August 2016 were obtained from Crossref.org. Next, based on a DOI's presence on a WikiProject Medicine page, all DOIs in Wikipedia were categorized as medical (WP:MED) or non-medical (non-WP:MED). Using this categorization, referred DOIs were classified as WP:MED, non-WP:MED, or BOTH, meaning the DOI may have been referred from either category. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Out of 5.2 million Wikipedia pages, 4.42% (n = 229,857) included at least one DOI. 68,870 were identified as WP:MED, with 22.14% (n = 15,250) featuring one or more DOIs. WP:MED pages featured on average 8.88 DOI citations per page, whereas non-WP:MED pages had on average 4.28 DOI citations. For DOIs only on WP:MED pages, a DOI was referred every 2,283 pageviews and for non-WP:MED pages every 2,467 pageviews. DOIs from BOTH pages accounted for 12% (n = 58,475). The referral of DOI citations found in BOTH could not be assigned to WP:MED or non-WP:MED, as the page from which the referral was made was not provided with the data. While these results cannot provide evidence of greater citation referral from WP:MED than non-WP:MED, they do provide benchmarks to assess strategies for changing referral patterns. These changes might include editors adopting new methods for designing and presenting citations or the introduction of teaching strategies that address the value of consulting citations as a tool for extending learning.

Satellite-based climate data records of surface solar radiation from the CM SAF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trentmann, Jörg; Cremer, Roswitha; Kothe, Steffen; Müller, Richard; Pfeifroth, Uwe

2017-04-01

The incoming surface solar radiation has been defined as an essential climate variable by GCOS. Long term monitoring of this part of the earth's energy budget is required to gain insights on the state and variability of the climate system. In addition, climate data sets of surface solar radiation have received increased attention over the recent years as an important source of information for solar energy assessments, for crop modeling, and for the validation of climate and weather models. The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) is deriving climate data records (CDRs) from geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite instruments. Within the CM SAF these CDRs are accompanied by operational data at a short time latency to be used for climate monitoring. All data from the CM SAF is freely available via www.cmsaf.eu. Here we present the regional and the global climate data records of surface solar radiation from the CM SAF. The regional climate data record SARAH (Surface Solar Radiation Dataset - Heliosat, doi: 10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/SARAH/V002) is based on observations from the series of Meteosat satellites. SARAH provides 30-min, daily- and monthly-averaged data of the effective cloud albedo, the solar irradiance (incl. spectral information), the direct solar radiation (horizontal and normal), and the sunshine duration from 1983 to 2015 for the full view of the Meteosat satellite (i.e, Europe, Africa, parts of South America, and the Atlantic ocean). The data sets are generated with a high spatial resolution of 0.05° allowing for detailed regional studies. The global climate data record CLARA (CM SAF Clouds, Albedo and Radiation dataset from AVHRR data, doi: 10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/CLARA_AVHRR/V002) is based on observations from the series of AVHRR satellite instruments. CLARA provides daily- and monthly-averaged global data of the solar irradiance (SIS) from 1982 to 2015 with a spatial resolution of 0.25°. In addition to the solar surface radiation also the longwave surface radiation as well as surface albedo and numerous cloud properties are provided in CLARA. Here we provide an overview of the climate data records of the surface solar radiation and present the results of the quality assessment of both climate data records against available surface reference observations, e.g., from the BSRN and the GEBA data archive.

Climate change and air pollution: Effects on pollen allergy and other allergic respiratory diseases.

PubMed

D'Amato, Gennaro; Bergmann, Karl Christian; Cecchi, Lorenzo; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; Sanduzzi, Alessandro; Liccardi, Gennaro; Vitale, Carolina; Stanziola, Anna; D'Amato, Maria

The observational evidence indicates that recent regional changes in climate, particularly temperature increases, have already affected a diverse set of physical and biological systems in many parts of the world. Allergens patterns are also changing in response to climate change and air pollution can modify the allergenic potential of pollen grains especially in the presence of specific weather conditions. Although genetic factors are important in the development of asthma and allergic diseases, their rising trend can be explained only by changes occurring in the environment and urban air pollution by motor vehicles has been indicated as one of the major risk factors responsible for this increase. Despite some differences in the air pollution profile and decreasing trends of some key air pollutants, air quality is an important concern for public health in the cities throughout the world. Due to climate change, air pollution patterns are changing in several urbanized areas of the world with a significant effect on respiratory health. The underlying mechanisms of all these interactions are not well known yet. The consequences on health vary from decreases in lung function to allergic diseases, new onset of diseases, and exacerbation of chronic respiratory diseases. In addition, it is important to recall that an individual's response to pollution exposure depends on the source and components of air pollution, as well as meteorological conditions. Indeed, some air pollution-related incidents with asthma aggravation do not depend only on the increased production of air pollution, but rather on atmospheric factors that favor the accumulation of air pollutants at ground level. Associations between thunderstorms and asthma morbidity of pollinosis-affected people have also been identified in multiple locations around the world ( Fig. 1). Cite this as D'Amato G, Bergmann KC, Cecchi L, Annesi-Maesano I, Sanduzzi A, Liccardi G, Vitale C, Stanziola A, D'Amato M. Climate change and air pollution - Effects on pollen allergy and other allergic respiratory diseases. Allergo J Int 2014; 23: 17-23 DOI 10.1007/s40629-014-0003-7 A factor clouding the problem is that laboratory evaluations do not reflect what happens during natural exposition. Considering these aspects, governments worldwide, international organizations, and cooperations such as the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Health Policy of the European Union (EU) are facing a growing problem of the respiratory effects induced by gaseous and particulate pollutants arising from motor vehicle emissions.

Evolution of the Climate Continuum from the Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum to the Present

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aswasereelert, W.; Meyers, S. R.; Hinnov, L. A.; Kelly, D.

2011-12-01

The recognition of orbital rhythms in paleoclimate data has led to a rich understanding of climate evolution during the Neogene and Quaternary. In contrast, changes in stochastic variability associated with the transition from unipolar to bipolar glaciation have received less attention, although the stochastic component likely preserves key insights about climate. In this study, we seek to evaluate the dominance and character of stochastic climate energy since the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (~17 Ma). These analyses extend a previous study that suggested diagnostic stochastic responses associated with Northern Hemisphere ice sheet development during the Plio-Pleistocene (Meyers and Hinnov, 2010). A critical and challenging step necessary to conduct the work is the conversion of depth data to time data. We investigate climate proxy datasets using multiple time scale hypotheses, including depth-derived time scales, sedimentologic/geochemical "tuning", minimal orbital tuning, and comprehensive orbital tuning. To extract the stochastic component of climate, and also explore potential relationships between the orbital parameters and paleoclimate response, a number of approaches rooted in Thomson's (1982) multi-taper spectral method (MTM) are applied. Importantly, the MTM technique is capable of separating the spectral "continuum" - a measure of stochastic variability - from the deterministic periodic orbital signals (spectral "lines") preserved in proxy data. Time series analysis of the proxy records using different chronologic approaches allows us to evaluate the sensitivity of our conclusion about stochastic and deterministic orbital processes during the Middle Miocene to present. Moreover, comparison of individual records permits examination of the spatial dependence of the identified climate responses. Meyers, S.R., and Hinnov, L.A. (2010), Northern Hemisphere glaciation and the evolution of Plio-Pleistocene climate noise: Paleoceanography, 25, PA3207, doi:10.1029/2009PA001834. Thomson, D.J. (1982), Spectrum estimation and harmonic analysis: IEEE Proceedings, v. 70, p. 1055-1096.

Antarctic Ice Sheet Discharge Driven by Atmosphere-Ocean Feedbacks Across the Last Glacial Termination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fogwill, C. J.; Turney, C. S.; Golledge, N. R.; Etheridge, D. M.; Rubino, M.; Thornton, D.; Baker, A.; Weber, M. E.; Woodward, J.; van Ommen, T. D.; Moy, A. D.; Davies, S. M.; Bird, M. I.; Winter, K.; Munksgaard, N.; Menviel, L.; Rootes, C.; Vohra, J.; Rivera, A.; Cooper, A.

2016-12-01

Reconstructing the dynamic response of the Antarctic ice sheets to warming during the Last Glacial Termination (LGT; 18,000-11,650 yrs ago) allows us to identify ice-climate feedbacks that could improve future projections1,2. Whilst the sequence of events during this period are reasonably well-known, relatively poor chronological control has precluded precise alignment of ice, atmospheric and marine records2, making it difficult to assess relationships between Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics, climate change and sea-level rise3-5. Here we present results from a highly-resolved `horizontal ice core'6,7 from the Weddell Sea Embayment, which records millennial-scale ice-sheet dynamics across this extensive sector of Antarctica. Counterintuitively, we find ice-sheet surface drawdown of 600 m across the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR; 14,600-12,700 yrs ago)5, with stabilisation during the subsequent millennia of atmospheric warming. Earth system and ice-sheet modelling highlights that this response was likely sustained by strong ocean-ice feedbacks4,8; however, the drivers remain uncertain. Given the coincidence of the ice-sheet changes recorded with marked shifts in atmospheric circulation9,10,11we suggest that millennial-scale Antarctic ice-sheet behaviour was initiated and sustained by global atmospheric teleconnections across the LGT. This has important ramifications ice-sheet stability under contemporary climate change, with changing atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns. 1 Collins, M. et al. in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. 2 Weber, M. E. et al. Nature 510, 134-138, (2014). 3 Weaver, A. J., et al., Science 299, 1709-1713, (2003). 4 Golledge, N. R. et al. Nat Commun 5, (2014). 5 Pedro, J. B. et al. Nature Geosci9. 51-55 (2015). 6 Turney, C. S. M. et al. Journal of Quaternary Science 28, 697-704 (2013). 7 Winter, K. et al. Geophys. Res. Lett.43. 5. 2019-2026 (2016). 8 Menviel, L., A. et al., Quaternary Science Reviews 30, 1155-1172 (2011). 9 Hogg, A. et al. Scientific Reports 6(2016). 10 Hughen, K. A., et al., Radiocarbon 46, 1161-1187 (2004). 11 Anderson, R. F. et al. Science 323, 1443-1448, doi:10.1126/science.1167441 (2009).

The Impact of a Lower Sea Ice Extent on Arctic Greenhouse Gas Exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parmentier, Frans-Jan W.; Christensen, Torben R.; Lotte Sørensen, Lise; Rysgaard, Søren; McGuire, A. David; Miller, Paul A.; Walker, Donald A.

2013-04-01

Arctic sea ice extent hit a new record low in September 2012, when it fell to a level about two times lower than the 1979-2000 average. Record low sea ice extents such as these are often hailed as an obvious example of the impact of climate change on the Arctic. Less obvious, however, are the further implications of a lower sea ice extent on Arctic greenhouse gas exchange. For example, a reduction in sea ice, in consort with a lower snow cover, has been connected to higher surface temperatures in the terrestrial part of the Arctic (Screen et al., 2012). These higher temperatures and longer growing seasons have the potential to alter the CO2 balance of Arctic tundra through enhanced photosynthesis and respiration, as well as the magnitude of methane emissions. In fact, large changes are already observed in terrestrial ecosystems (Post et al., 2009), and concerns have been raised of large releases of carbon through permafrost thaw (Schuur et al., 2011). While these changes in the greenhouse gas balance of the terrestrial Arctic are described in numerous studies, a connection with a decline in sea ice extent is nonetheless seldom made. In addition to these changes on land, a lower sea ice extent also has a direct effect on the exchange of greenhouse gases between the ocean and the atmosphere. For example, due to sea ice retreat, more ocean surface remains in contact with the atmosphere, and this has been suggested to increase the oceanic uptake of CO2 (Bates et al., 2006). However, the sustainability of this increased uptake is uncertain (Cai et al., 2010), and carbon fluxes related directly to the sea ice itself add much uncertainty to the oceanic uptake of CO2 (Nomura et al., 2006; Rysgaard et al., 2007). Furthermore, significant emissions of methane from the Arctic Ocean have been observed (Kort et al., 2012; Shakhova et al., 2010), but the consequence of a lower sea ice extent thereon is still unclear. Overall, the decline in sea ice that has been seen in recent years has the potential to influence greenhouse gas exchange across terrestrial ecosystems and the Arctic Ocean, but the overall impact remains unclear. In this study, we therefore try to reduce this uncertainty by addressing the influence of the decline in sea ice extent on all affected greenhouse gas fluxes in the high latitudes. Also, we will address the need for more research, on the ocean and on the land, to understand the impact of a lower sea ice extent on Arctic greenhouse gas exchange. References: Bates, N. R., Moran, S. B., Hansell, D. A. and Mathis, J. T.: An increasing CO2 sink in the Arctic Ocean due to sea-ice loss, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L23609, doi:10.1029/2006GL027028, 2006. Cai, W.-J., Chen, L., Chen, B., Gao, Z., Lee, S. H., Chen, J., Pierrot, D., Sullivan, K., Wang, Y., Hu, X., Huang, W.-J., et al.: Decrease in the CO2 Uptake Capacity in an Ice-Free Arctic Ocean Basin, Science, 329(5991), 556-559, doi:10.1126/science.1189338, 2010. Kort, E. A., Wofsy, S. C., Daube, B. C., Diao, M., Elkins, J. W., Gao, R. S., Hintsa, E. J., Hurst, D. F., Jimenez, R., Moore, F. L., Spackman, J. R., et al.: Atmospheric observations of Arctic Ocean methane emissions up to 82 degrees north, Nature Geosci., 5(5), 318-321, doi:10.1038/NGEO1452, 2012. Nomura, D., Yoshikawa-Inoue, H. and Toyota, T.: The effect of sea-ice growth on air-sea CO2 flux in a tank experiment, vol. 58, pp. 418-426. 2006. Post, E., Forchhammer, M. C., Bret-Harte, M. S., Callaghan, T. V., Christensen, T. R., Elberling, B., Fox, A. D., Gilg, O., Hik, D. S., Høye, T. T., Ims, R. A., et al.: Ecological Dynamics Across the Arctic Associated with Recent Climate Change, Science, 325(5946), 1355-1358, doi:10.1126/science.1173113, 2009. Rysgaard, S., Glud, R. N., Sejr, M. K., Bendtsen, J. and Christensen, P. B.: Inorganic carbon transport during sea ice growth and decay: A carbon pump in polar seas, J. Geophys. Res., 112, C03016, doi:10.1029/2006JC003572, 2007. Schuur, E. A. G., Abbott, B. and Network, P. C.: High risk of permafrost thaw, Nature, 480(7375), 32-33, 2011. Screen, J. A., Deser, C. and Simmonds, I.: Local and remote controls on observed Arctic warming, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L10709, doi:10.1029/2012GL051598, 2012. Shakhova, N., Semiletov, I., Salyuk, A., Yusupov, V., Kosmach, D. and Gustafsson, O.: Extensive Methane Venting to the Atmosphere from Sediments of the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, Science, 327(5970), 1246-1250, doi:10.1126/science.1182221, 2010.

Disentangling the uncertainty of hydrologic drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in continental river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samaniego, Luis; Kumar, Rohini; Pechlivanidis, Illias; Breuer, Lutz; Wortmann, Michel; Vetter, Tobias; Flörke, Martina; Chamorro, Alejandro; Schäfer, David; Shah, Harsh; Zeng, Xiaofan

2016-04-01

The quantification of the predictive uncertainty in hydrologic models and their attribution to its main sources is of particular interest in climate change studies. In recent years, a number of studies have been aimed at assessing the ability of hydrologic models (HMs) to reproduce extreme hydrologic events. Disentangling the overall uncertainty of streamflow -including its derived low-flow characteristics- into individual contributions, stemming from forcings and model structure, has also been studied. Based on recent literature, it can be stated that there is a controversy with respect to which source is the largest (e.g., Teng, et al. 2012, Bosshard et al. 2013, Prudhomme et al. 2014). Very little has also been done to estimate the relative impact of the parametric uncertainty of the HMs with respect to overall uncertainty of low-flow characteristics. The ISI-MIP2 project provides a unique opportunity to understand the propagation of forcing and model structure uncertainties into century-long time series of drought characteristics. This project defines a consistent framework to deal with compatible initial conditions for the HMs and a set of standardized historical and future forcings. Moreover, the ensemble of hydrologic model predictions varies across a broad range of climate scenarios and regions. To achieve this goal, we use six preconditioned hydrologic models (HYPE or HBV, mHM, SWIM, VIC, and WaterGAP3) set up in seven large continental river basins: Amazon, Blue Nile, Ganges, Niger, Mississippi, Rhine, Yellow. These models are forced with bias-corrected outputs of five CMIP5 general circulation models (GCM) under four extreme representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios (i.e. 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2) for the period 1971-2099. Simulated streamflow is transformed into a monthly runoff index (RI) to analyze the attribution of the GCM and HM uncertainty into drought magnitude and duration over time. Uncertainty contributions are investigated during periods: 1) 2006-2035, 2) 2036-2065 and 3) 2070-2099. Results presented in Samaniego et al. 2015 (submitted) indicate that GCM uncertainty mostly dominates over HM uncertainty for predictions of runoff drought characteristics, irrespective of the selected RCP and region. For the mHM model, in particular, GCM uncertainty always dominates over parametric uncertainty. In general, the overall uncertainty increases with time. The larger the radiative forcing of the RCP, the larger the uncertainty in drought characteristics, however, the propagation of the GCM uncertainty onto a drought characteristic depends largely upon the hydro-climatic regime. While our study emphasizes the need for multi-model ensembles for the assessment of future drought projections, the agreement between GCM forcings is still weak to draw conclusive recommendations. References: L. Samaniego, R. Kumar, I. G. Pechlivanidis, L. Breuer, M. Wortmann, T. Vetter, M. Flörke, A. Chamorro, D. Schäfer, H. Shah, X. Zeng: Propagation of forcing and model uncertainty into hydrological drought characteristics in a multi-model century-long experiment in continental river basins. Submitted to Climatic Change on Dec 2015. Bosshard, et al. 2013. doi:10.1029/2011WR011533. Prudhomme et al. 2014, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222473110. Teng, et al. 2012, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-11-058.1.

The temperature response of methane emission in Arctic wet sedge tundra

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lim, Edward; Zona, Donatella

2015-04-01

Since the last glacial maximum Arctic tundra soils have acted as an important carbon sink, having accumulated carbon under cold, anaerobic conditions (Zona et al. 2009). Several studies indicate that recent climate warming has altered this balance, with the Arctic tundra now posited to be a significant annual source of atmospheric methane (CH4) (McGuire et al. 2012). Nonetheless, the response of Arctic tundra CH4 fluxes to continued climate warming remains uncertain. Laboratory and field studies indicate that CH4 fluxes are temperature sensitive, thus accurate calculation of the temperature sensitivity is vital for the prediction of future CH4 emission. For this, the increase in reaction rate over a 10°C range (Q10) is frequently used, with single fixed Q10 values (between 2 and 4) commonly incorporated into climate-carbon cycle models. However, the temperature sensitivity of CH4 emission can vary considerably depending on factors such as vegetation composition, water table and season. This promotes the use of spatially and seasonally variable Q10 values for accurate CH4 flux estimation under different future climate change scenarios. This study investigates the temperature sensitivity (Q10) of Arctic tundra methane fluxes, using an extensive number of soil cores (48) extracted from wet sedge polygonal tundra (Barrow Experimental Observatory, Alaska). 'Wet' and 'dry' cores were taken from the centre and raised perimeter of ice-wedge polygons, where the water tables are 0cm and -15cm respectively. Cores were incubated in two controlled environment chambers (University of Sheffield, UK) for 12 weeks under different thaw depth treatments (control and control + 6.8cm), water tables (surface and -15cm), and CO2 concentrations (400ppm and 850ppm) in a multifactorial manner. Chamber temperature was gradually increased from -5°C to 20°C, then gradually decreased to -5°C, with each temperature stage lasting one week. Average CH4 fluxes from 'dry' cores were consistently low and did not change significantly with temperature, indicating that CH4 emission from drier Arctic tundra soils is not particularly temperature sensitive. Average CH4 emission from 'wet' cores increased with increasing temperature between -5°C and 20°C. Interestingly, continued increases in average CH4 emission as chamber temperature decreased (20°C to 0°C) were observed. Importantly, when chamber temperature was increased (-5°C to 20°C), average CH4 emission in the 'wet' cores was consistently lower at the end of each week-long temperature stage compared to at the start. This suggests that the response of CH4 emission to climate warming might acclimate. Overall, this study is critical for refining the temperature sensitivity of Arctic tundra CH4 emission, and thus improving model predictions of the response of CH4 fluxes to climate change. References McGuire, AD; Christensen, TR; Hayes, D. et al. (2012). An assessment of the carbon balance of Arctic tundra: comparisons among observations, process models, and atmospheric inversions. Biogeosciences. Vol.9, p.3185-3204, doi:10.5194/bg-9-3185-2012. Zona, D; Oechel, WC; Kochendorfer, J. et al. (2009). Methane fluxes during the initiation of a large-scale water table manipulation experiment in the Alaskan Arctic tundra. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. Vol.23, GB2013, doi:10.1029/2009GB003487.

Wikipedia as a gateway to biomedical research: The relative distribution and use of citations in the English Wikipedia

PubMed Central

Willinsky, John M.; Steinberg, Ryan M.; Mietchen, Daniel; Wass, Joseph L.; Dong, Ting

2017-01-01

Wikipedia is a gateway to knowledge. However, the extent to which this gateway ends at Wikipedia or continues via supporting citations is unknown. Wikipedia’s gateway functionality has implications for information design and education, notably in medicine. This study aims to establish benchmarks for the relative distribution and referral (click) rate of citations—as indicated by presence of a Digital Object Identifier (DOI)—from Wikipedia, with a focus on medical citations. DOIs referred from the English Wikipedia in August 2016 were obtained from Crossref.org. Next, based on a DOI’s presence on a WikiProject Medicine page, all DOIs in Wikipedia were categorized as medical (WP:MED) or non-medical (non-WP:MED). Using this categorization, referred DOIs were classified as WP:MED, non-WP:MED, or BOTH, meaning the DOI may have been referred from either category. Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics. Out of 5.2 million Wikipedia pages, 4.42% (n = 229,857) included at least one DOI. 68,870 were identified as WP:MED, with 22.14% (n = 15,250) featuring one or more DOIs. WP:MED pages featured on average 8.88 DOI citations per page, whereas non-WP:MED pages had on average 4.28 DOI citations. For DOIs only on WP:MED pages, a DOI was referred every 2,283 pageviews and for non-WP:MED pages every 2,467 pageviews. DOIs from BOTH pages accounted for 12% (n = 58,475). The referral of DOI citations found in BOTH could not be assigned to WP:MED or non-WP:MED, as the page from which the referral was made was not provided with the data. While these results cannot provide evidence of greater citation referral from WP:MED than non-WP:MED, they do provide benchmarks to assess strategies for changing referral patterns. These changes might include editors adopting new methods for designing and presenting citations or the introduction of teaching strategies that address the value of consulting citations as a tool for extending learning. PMID:29267345

Ensemble simulations to study the impact of land use change of Atlanta to regional climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, P.; Hu, Y.; Stone, B.; Vargo, J.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A.; Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A.

2012-12-01

Studies show that urban areas may be the "first responders" to climate change (Rosenzweig et al., 2010). Of particular interest is the potential increased temperatures in urban areas, due to use of structures and surfaces that increase local heating, and how that may impact health, air quality and other environmental factors. In response, interest has grown as to how the modification of land use in urban areas, in order to mitigate the adverse effects of urbanization can serve to reduce local temperatures, and how climate is impacted more regionally. Studies have been conducted to investigate the impact of land use change on local or regional climate by dynamic downscaling using regional climate models (RCMs), the boundary conditions (BCs) and initial conditions (ICs) of which result from coarser-resolution reanalysis data or general circulation models (GCMs). However, few studies have focused on demonstrating whether the land use change in local areas significantly impacts the climate of the larger region of the domain, and the spatial scale of the impact from urban-scale changes. This work investigated the significance of the impact of land use change in the Atlanta city area on different scales, using a range of modeling resolutions, including the contiguous US (with 36km resolution), the southeastern US (with 12km resolution) and the state of Georgia (with 4km resolution). We used WRF version 3.1.1 with and ran continuous from June to August of a simulated year 2050, driven by GISS ModelE with inputs corresponding to RCP4.5. During the simulation, spectral nudging is used in the 36km resolution domain to maintain the climate patterns with scales larger than 2000km. Two-way nesting is also used in order to take into account the feedback of nesting domains across model domains. Two land use cases over the Atlanta city are chosen. For the base case, most of the urban area of Atlanta is covered with forest; while for the second, "impervious" case, all the urban area within 30 miles of the center of Atlanta is replaced with asphalt. This choice is made to maximize the potential effects and scales of impact. To make the two cases different as much as possible, a constant green vegetation fraction of 1.0 is assigned to the forest over the Atlanta; while 0.0 is assigned to the asphalt. To test the significance of the impact of land use change, 5 ensemble members were generated for each land use case using different initial conditions. The results of student's t test found that the impact of land use change in Atlanta city has a very local impact. This finding indicates that using WRF, applied at continental and regional scales, with BCs from the GCM and with spectral nudging, is appropriate. Although our results showed the impact is very local, results may change when meteorological conditions change or the area where land use changes is increased. Therefore, when investigating the land use change relevant issues, similar testing is suggested in order to demonstrate that the domain is large enough so that downscaling by RCMs is an appropriate approach. References: Rosenzweig, C., W. Solecki, S.A. Hammer, and S. Mehrotra, 2010: Cities lead the way in climate-change action. Nature, 467, 909-911, doi:10.1038/467909a

Model Intercomparison of CCN-Limited Arctic Clouds During ASCOS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Robin; Dearden, Chris; Dimetrelos, Antonios; Eirund, Gesa; Possner, Anna; Raatikainen, Tomi; Loewe, Katharina; Hill, Adrian; Shipway, Ben; Connolly, Paul; Ekman, Annica; Hoose, Corinna; Laaksonen, Ari; de Leeuw, Gerrit; Kolmonen, Pekka; Saponaro, Giulia; Field, Paul; Carlsaw, Ken

2017-04-01

Future decreases in Arctic sea ice are expected to increase fluxes of aerosol and precursor gases from the open ocean surface within the Arctic. The resulting increase in cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentrations would be expected to result in increased cloud albedo (Struthers et al, 2011), leading to potentially large changes in radiative forcings. However, Browse et al. (2014) have shown that these increases in condensable material could also result in the growth of existing particles to sizes where they are more efficiently removed by wet deposition in drizzling stratocumulus clouds, ultimately decreasing CCN concentrations in the high Arctic. Their study was limited in that it did not simulate alterations of dynamics or cloud properties due to either changes in heat and moisture fluxes following sea­-ice loss or changing aerosol concentrations. Taken together, these results show that significant uncertainties remain in trying to quantify aerosol­-cloud processes in the Arctic system. The current representation of these processes in global climate models is most likely insufficient to realistically simulate long­-term changes. In order to better understand the microphysical processes currently governing Arctic clouds, we perform a model intercomparison of summertime high Arctic (>80N) clouds observed during the 2008 ASCOS campaign. The intercomparison includes results from three large eddy simulation models (UCLALES-SALSA, COSMO-LES, and MIMICA) and three numerical weather prediction models (COSMO-NWP, WRF, and UM-CASIM). The results of these experiments will be used as a basis for sensitivity studies on the impact of sea-ice loss on Arctic clouds through changes in aerosol and precursor emissions as well as changes in latent and sensible heat fluxes. Browse, J., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 14(14), 7543-7557, doi:10.5194/acp-14-7543-2014, 2014. Struthers, H., et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11(7), 3459-3477, doi:10.5194/acp-11-3459-2011, 2011.

Vortex, ULF wave and Aurora Observation after Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Q.

2017-12-01

Here we will summarize our recent study and show some new results on the Magnetosphere and Ionosphere Response to Dynamic Pressure Change/disturbances in the Solar Wind and foreshock regions. We study the step function type solar wind dynamic pressure change (increase/decrease) interaction with the magnetosphere using THEMIS satellites at both dayside and nightside in different geocentric distances. Vortices generated by the dynamic pressure change passing along the magnetopause are found and compared with model predictions. ULF waves and vortices are excited in the dayside and nightside plasma sheet when dynamic pressure change hit the magnetotail. The related ionospheric responses, such as aurora and TCVs, are also investigated. We compare Global MHD simulations with the observations. We will also show some new results that dayside magnetospheric FLRs might be caused by foreshock structures.Shi, Q. Q. et al. (2013), THEMIS observations of ULF wave excitation in the nightside plasma sheet during sudden impulse events, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 118, doi:10.1029/2012JA017984. Shi, Q. Q. et al. (2014), Solar wind pressure pulse-driven magnetospheric vortices and their global consequences, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 119, doi:10.1002/2013JA019551. Tian, A.M. et al.(2016), Dayside magnetospheric and ionospheric responses to solar wind pressure increase: Multispacecraft and ground observations, J. Geophys. Res., 121, doi:10.1002/2016JA022459. Shen, X.C. et al.(2015), Magnetospheric ULF waves with increasing amplitude related to solar wind dynamic pressure changes: THEMIS observations, J. Geophys. Res., 120, doi:10.1002/2014JA020913Zhao, H. Y. et al. (2016), Magnetospheric vortices and their global effect after a solar wind dynamic pressure decrease, J. Geophys. Res. Space Physics, 121, doi:10.1002/2015JA021646. Shen, X. C., et al. (2017), Dayside magnetospheric ULF wave frequency modulated by a solar wind dynamic pressure negative impulse, J. Geophys. Res., 122, doi:10.1002/2016JA023351.

Spatial Patterns of Soil Organic Carbon in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bliss, N. B.

2005-12-01

The Department of the Interior (DOI) has jurisdiction influencing approximately 22 percent of the land area of the United States. The poster presents estimates of the current stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) on all lands and Federal lands. The DOI lands have about 22 percent of the nation's SOC, so the average carbon intensity (8.66 kg C m-2) about matches the average for all lands (8.81 kg C m-2). However the carbon on DOI lands is not evenly distributed. Of the 17.76 Petagrams (1 Pg = 1015 grams) of SOC on DOI lands, 13.07 Pg (74 percent) are in Alaska, and 4.69 Pg (26 percent) are in the Conterminous U.S. The Alaska soils are wetter and colder than the national average, and the DOI lands in the conterminous U.S. are warmer and drier than the average. A set of SOC maps is shown, developed by intersecting the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) database with data on federal lands from the National Atlas. With 22 percent of the nation's soil carbon, the DOI lands are important in a national accounting of greenhouse gas emission and sequestration. Future behavior of these lands is uncertain, but in scenarios of warming or drying, carbon released by respiration may exceed carbon captured by photosynthesis, resulting in a net release of carbon to the atmosphere. If warming stimulates a net release of greenhouse gases, this represents a positive feedback contributing to future global warming, a very unstable condition for the global climate system.

Analysis of magnitude and duration of floods and droughts in the context of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eshetu Debele, Sisay; Bogdanowicz, Ewa; Strupczewski, Witold

2016-04-01

Research and scientific information are key elements of any decision-making process. There is also a strong need for tools to describe and compare in a concise way the regime of hydrological extreme events in the context of presumed climate change. To meet these demands, two complementary methods for estimating high and low-flow frequency characteristics are proposed. Both methods deal with duration and magnitude of extreme events. The first one "flow-duration-frequency" (known as QdF) has already been applied successfully to low-flow analysis, flood flows and rainfall intensity. The second one called "duration-flow-frequency" (DqF) was proposed by Strupczewski et al. in 2010 to flood frequency analysis. The two methods differ in the treatment of flow and duration. In the QdF method the duration (d-consecutive days) is a chosen fixed value and the frequency analysis concerns the annual or seasonal series of mean value of flows exceeded (in the case of floods) or non-exceeded (in the case of droughts) within d-day period. In the second method, DqF, the flows are treated as fixed thresholds and the duration of flows exceeding (floods) and non-exceeding (droughts) these thresholds are a subject of frequency analysis. The comparison of characteristics of floods and droughts in reference period and under future climate conditions for catchments studied within the CHIHE project is presented and a simple way to show the results to non-professionals and decision-makers is proposed. The work was undertaken within the project "Climate Change Impacts on Hydrological Extremes (CHIHE)", which is supported by the Norway-Poland Grants Program administered by the Norwegian Research Council. The observed time series were provided by the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW), Poland. Strupczewski, W. G., Kochanek, K., Markiewicz, I., Bogdanowicz, E., Weglarczyk, S., & Singh V. P. (2010). On the Tails of Distributions of Annual Peak Flow. Hydrology Research, 42, 171-192. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/nh.2011.062

75 FR 82061 - Notice To Amend an Existing System of Records; Privacy Act of 1974; as Amended

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-29

... amended, the Department of the Interior (DOI) is issuing public notice of its intent to amend the Bureau... would require a contrary determination. The DOI will publish a revised notice if changes are made based... primary uses of the records are: (1) To provide the BLM, the DOI or state, local and tribal governments...

Towards a regional climate model coupled to a comprehensive hydrological model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasmussen, S. H.; Drews, M.; Christensen, J. H.; Butts, M. B.; Jensen, K. H.; Refsgaard, J.; Hydrological ModellingAssessing Climate Change Impacts At Different Scales (Hyacints)

2010-12-01

When planing new ground water abstractions wells, building areas, roads or other land use activities information about expected future groundwater table location for the lifetime of the construction may be critical. The life time of an abstraction well can be expected to be more than 50 years, while if for buildings may be up to 100 years or more. The construction of an abstraction well is expensive and it is important to know if clean groundwater is available for its expected life time. The future groundwater table is depending on the future climate. With climate change the hydrology is expected to change as well. Traditionally, this assessment has been done by driving hydrological models with output from a climate model. In this way feedback between the groundwater hydrology and the climate is neglected. Neglecting this feedback can lead to imprecise or wrong results. The goal of this work is to couple the regional climate model HIRHAM (Christensen et al. 2006) to the hydrological model MIKE SHE (Graham and Butts, 2006). The coupling exploits the new OpenMI technology that provides a standardized interface to define, describe and transfer data on a time step basis between software components that run simultaneously (Gregersen et al., 2007). HIRHAM runs on a UNIX platform whereas MIKE SHE and OpenMI are under WINDOWS. Therefore the first critical task has been to develop an effective communication link between the platforms. The first step towards assessing the coupled models performance are addressed by looking at simulated land-surface atmosphere feedback through variables such as evapotranspiration, sensible heat flux and soil moisture content. Christensen, O.B., Drews, M., Christensen, J.H., Dethloff, K., Ketelsen, K., Hebestadt, I. and Rinke, A. (2006) The HIRHAM Regional Climate Model. Version 5; DMI Scientific Report 0617. Danish Meteorological Institute. Graham, D.N. and Butts, M.B. (2005) Flexible, integrated watershed modelling with MIKE SHE, In Watershed Models, (Eds. V.P. Singh & D.K. Frevert) CRC Press. Pages 245-272, ISBN: 0849336090. Gregersen, J.B., Gijsbers, P.J.A. and Westen, S.J.P. (2007) OpenMI: Open modelling interface. Journal of Hydroinformatics, 09.3, 175191. doi: 10.2166/hydro.2007.023.

The Impact of Spring Subsurface Soil Temperature Anomaly in the Western U.S. on North American Summer Precipitation: A Case Study Using Regional Climate Model Downscaling

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-02

regional climate model downscaling , J. Geophys. Res., 117, D11103, doi:10.1029/2012JD017692. 1. Introduction [2] Modeling studies and data analyses...based on ground and satellite data have demonstrated that the land surface state variables, such as soil moisture, snow, vegetation, and soil temperature... downscaling rather than simply applying reanal- ysis data as LBC for both Eta control and sensitivity experiments as done in many RCM sensitivity studies

Using global sensitivity analysis to evaluate the uncertainties of future shoreline changes under the Bruun rule assumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Oliveros, Carlos; Castelle, Bruno; Garcin, Manuel; Idier, Déborah; Pedreros, Rodrigo; Rohmer, Jeremy

2016-04-01

Future sandy shoreline changes are often assed by summing the contributions of longshore and cross-shore effects. In such approaches, a contribution of sea-level rise can be incorporated by adding a supplementary term based on the Bruun rule. Here, our objective is to identify where and when the use of the Bruun rule can be (in)validated, in the case of wave-exposed beaches with gentle slopes. We first provide shoreline change scenarios that account for all uncertain hydrosedimentary processes affecting the idealized low- and high-energy coasts described by Stive (2004)[Stive, M. J. F. 2004, How important is global warming for coastal erosion? an editorial comment, Climatic Change, vol. 64, n 12, doi:10.1023/B:CLIM.0000024785.91858. ISSN 0165-0009]. Then, we generate shoreline change scenarios based on probabilistic sea-level rise projections based on IPCC. For scenario RCP 6.0 and 8.5 and in the absence of coastal defenses, the model predicts an observable shift toward generalized beach erosion by the middle of the 21st century. On the contrary, the model predictions are unlikely to differ from the current situation in case of scenario RCP 2.6. To get insight into the relative importance of each source of uncertainties, we quantify each contributions to the variance of the model outcome using a global sensitivity analysis. This analysis shows that by the end of the 21st century, a large part of shoreline change uncertainties are due to the climate change scenario if all anthropogenic greenhousegas emission scenarios are considered equiprobable. To conclude, the analysis shows that under the assumptions above, (in)validating the Bruun rule should be straightforward during the second half of the 21st century and for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Conversely, for RCP 2.6, the noise in shoreline change evolution should continue dominating the signal due to the Bruun effect. This last conclusion can be interpreted as an important potential benefit of climate change mitigation.

Sensitivity of clear-sky direct radiative effect of the aerosol to micro-physical properties by using 6SV radiative transfer model: preliminary results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bassani, Cristiana; Tirelli, Cecilia; Manzo, Ciro; Pietrodangelo, Adriana; Curci, Gabriele

2015-04-01

The aerosol micro-physical properties are crucial to analyze their radiative impact on the Earth's radiation budget [IPCC, 2007]. The 6SV model, last generation of the Second Simulation of a Satellite Signal in the Solar Spectrum (6S) radiative transfer code [Kotchenova et al., 2007; Vermote et al., 1997] has been used to perform physically-based atmospheric correction of hyperspectral airborne and aircraft remote sensing data [Vermote et al., 2009; Bassani et al. 2010; Tirelli et al., 2014]. The atmospheric correction of hyperspectral data has been shown to be sensitive to the aerosol micro-physical properties, as reported in Bassani et al., 2012. The role of the aerosol micro-physical properties on the accuracy of the atmospheric correction of hyperspectral data acquired over water and land targets is investigated within the framework of CLAM-PHYM (Coasts and Lake Assessment and Monitoring by PRISMA HYperspectral Mission) and PRIMES (Synergistic use of PRISMA products with high resolution meteo-chemical simulations and their validation on ground and from satellite) projects, both funded by Italian Space Agency (ASI). In this work, the results of the radiative field of the Earth/Atmosphere coupled system simulated by using 6SV during the atmospheric correction of hyperspectral data are presented. The analysis of the clear-sky direct radiative effect is performed considering the aerosol micro-physical properties used to define the aerosol model during the atmospheric correction process. In particular, the AERONET [Holben et al., 1998] and FLEXAOD [Curci et al., 2014] micro-physical properties are used for each image to evaluate the contribution of the size distribution and refractive index of the aerosol type on the surface reflectance and on the direct radiative forcing. The results highlight the potential of the hyperspectral remote sensing data for atmospheric studies as well as for environmental studies. Currently, the future hyperspectral missions, such as the PRISMA mission, are an opportunity to study the aerosol radiative effects. IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007: the Physical Science Basis. ISBN 978 0521 88009-1 Hardback; 978 0521 70596-7 Paperback. Kotchenova and Vermote, 2007. Appl. Opt. doi:10.1364/AO.46.004455. Vermote et al., 1997. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens. doi:10.1109/36.581987. Vermote and Kotchenova, 2009. J. Geophys. Res. doi:10.1029/2007JD009662. Bassani et al., 2010. Sensors. doi:10.3390/s100706421. Bassani et al., 2012. Atmos. Meas. Tech. doi:10.5194/amt-5-1193-2012. Tirelli,C. et al., 2014. AGU2014, 15-19 September 2014. Holben et al., 1998. Rem. Sens. Environ. doi:10.1016/S0034-4257(98)00031-5 Curci et al., 2014. Atmos. Environ. doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2014.09.009

SDCLIREF - A sub-daily gridded reference dataset

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Raul R.; Willkofer, Florian; Schmid, Franz-Josef; Trentini, Fabian; Komischke, Holger; Ludwig, Ralf

2017-04-01

Climate change is expected to impact the intensity and frequency of hydrometeorological extreme events. In order to adequately capture and analyze extreme rainfall events, in particular when assessing flood and flash flood situations, data is required at high spatial and sub-daily resolution which is often not available in sufficient density and over extended time periods. The ClimEx project (Climate Change and Hydrological Extreme Events) addresses the alteration of hydrological extreme events under climate change conditions. In order to differentiate between a clear climate change signal and the limits of natural variability, unique Single-Model Regional Climate Model Ensembles (CRCM5 driven by CanESM2, RCP8.5) were created for a European and North-American domain, each comprising 50 members of 150 years (1951-2100). In combination with the CORDEX-Database, this newly created ClimEx-Ensemble is a one-of-a-kind model dataset to analyze changes of sub-daily extreme events. For the purpose of bias-correcting the regional climate model ensembles as well as for the baseline calibration and validation of hydrological catchment models, a new sub-daily (3h) high-resolution (500m) gridded reference dataset (SDCLIREF) was created for a domain covering the Upper Danube and Main watersheds ( 100.000km2). As the sub-daily observations lack a continuous time series for the reference period 1980-2010, the need for a suitable method to bridge the gap of the discontinuous time series arouse. The Method of Fragments (Sharma and Srikanthan (2006); Westra et al. (2012)) was applied to transform daily observations to sub-daily rainfall events to extend the time series and densify the station network. Prior to applying the Method of Fragments and creating the gridded dataset using rigorous interpolation routines, data collection of observations, operated by several institutions in three countries (Germany, Austria, Switzerland), and the subsequent quality control of the observations was carried out. Among others, the quality control checked for steps, extensive dry seasons, temporal consistency and maximum hourly values. The resulting SDCLIREF dataset provides a robust precipitation reference for hydrometeorological applications in unprecedented high spatio-temporal resolution. References: Sharma, A.; Srikanthan, S. (2006): Continuous Rainfall Simulation: A Nonparametric Alternative. In: 30th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium 4-7 December 2006, Launceston, Tasmania. Westra, S.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.; Srikanthan, R. (2012): Continuous rainfall simulation. 1. A regionalized subdaily disaggregation approach. In: Water Resour. Res. 48 (1). DOI: 10.1029/2011WR010489.

Mycobacterium ulcerans dynamics in aquatic ecosystems are driven by a complex interplay of abiotic and biotic factors

PubMed Central

Garchitorena, Andrés; Guégan, Jean-François; Léger, Lucas; Eyangoh, Sara; Marsollier, Laurent; Roche, Benjamin

2015-01-01

Host–parasite interactions are often embedded within complex host communities and can be influenced by a variety of environmental factors, such as seasonal variations in climate or abiotic conditions in water and soil, which confounds our understanding of the main drivers of many multi-host pathogens. Here, we take advantage of a combination of large environmental data sets on Mycobacterium ulcerans (MU), an environmentally persistent microorganism associated to freshwater ecosystems and present in a large variety of aquatic hosts, to characterize abiotic and biotic factors driving the dynamics of this pathogen in two regions of Cameroon. We find that MU dynamics are largely driven by seasonal climatic factors and certain physico-chemical conditions in stagnant and slow-flowing ecosystems, with an important role of pH as limiting factor. Furthermore, water conditions can modify the effect of abundance and diversity of aquatic organisms on MU dynamics, which suggests a different contribution of two MU transmission routes for aquatic hosts (trophic vs environmental transmission) depending on local abiotic factors. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.07616.001 PMID:26216042

CPLFD-GDPT5: High-resolution gridded daily precipitation and temperature data set for two largest Polish river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berezowski, Tomasz; Szcześniak, Mateusz; Kardel, Ignacy; Michałowski, Robert; Okruszko, Tomasz; Mezghani, Abdelkader; Piniewski, Mikołaj

2016-03-01

The CHASE-PL (Climate change impact assessment for selected sectors in Poland) Forcing Data-Gridded Daily Precipitation & Temperature Dataset-5 km (CPLFD-GDPT5) consists of 1951-2013 daily minimum and maximum air temperatures and precipitation totals interpolated onto a 5 km grid based on daily meteorological observations from the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW-PIB; Polish stations), Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD, German and Czech stations), and European Climate Assessment and Dataset (ECAD) and National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration-National Climatic Data Center (NOAA-NCDC) (Slovak, Ukrainian, and Belarusian stations). The main purpose for constructing this product was the need for long-term aerial precipitation and temperature data for earth-system modelling, especially hydrological modelling. The spatial coverage is the union of the Vistula and Oder basins and Polish territory. The number of available meteorological stations for precipitation and temperature varies in time from about 100 for temperature and 300 for precipitation in the 1950s up to about 180 for temperature and 700 for precipitation in the 1990s. The precipitation data set was corrected for snowfall and rainfall under-catch with the Richter method. The interpolation methods were kriging with elevation as external drift for temperatures and indicator kriging combined with universal kriging for precipitation. The kriging cross validation revealed low root-mean-squared errors expressed as a fraction of standard deviation (SD): 0.54 and 0.47 for minimum and maximum temperature, respectively, and 0.79 for precipitation. The correlation scores were 0.84 for minimum temperatures, 0.88 for maximum temperatures, and 0.65 for precipitation. The CPLFD-GDPT5 product is consistent with 1971-2000 climatic data published by IMGW-PIB. We also confirm good skill of the product for hydrological modelling by performing an application using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in the Vistula and Oder basins. Link to the data set: doi:10.4121/uuid:e939aec0-bdd1-440f-bd1e-c49ff10d0a07.

Tropical climate trends inferred from coral δ18O: a comparison of CMIP5 forward-model results with paleoclimatic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, D. M.; Evans, M. N.; Cole, J. E.; Ault, T. R.; Emile-Geay, J.

2011-12-01

The response of the tropical Pacific Ocean to anthropogenic climate change remains highly uncertain, in part because of the disagreement among 20th-century trends derived from observations and coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). We use a model of reef coral oxygen isotopic composition (δ18O) to compare the observational coral network with synthetic corals ('pseudocorals') modeled from CGCM sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS). When driven with historical data, we found that a linear temperature and salinity driven model for δ18Ocoral was able to capture the spatial and temporal pattern of ENSO and the linear trend observed in 23 Indo-Pacific coral records between 1958 and 1990. However, we found that none of the pseudocoral networks obtained from a subset of 20th-century AR4 CGCM runs reproduced the magnitude of the secular trend, the change in mean state, or the change in ENSO-related variance observed in the coral network from 1890 to 1990 (Thompson et al., 2011). We believe differences between corals and AR4 CGCM simulated pseudocorals arose from uncertainties in the observed coral network or linear bivariate coral model, undersensitivity of AR4 CGCMs to radiative forcing during the 20th century, and/or biases in the simulated AR4 CGCM SSS fields. Here we apply the same approach to an extended temperature and salinity reanalysis product (SODA v2.2.4, 1871-2008) and CMIP 5 historical simulations to further address 20th-century tropical climate trends and assess remaining uncertainties in both the proxies and models. We explore whether model improvements in the tropical Pacific have led to a stronger agreement between simulated and observed tropical climate trends. [Thompson, D. M., T. R. Ault, M. N. Evans, J. E. Cole, and J. Emile-Geay (2011), Comparison of observed and simulated tropical climate trends using a forward model of coral δ18O, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38, L14706, doi:10.1029/2011GL048224.

The PRIMAP-hist national historical emissions time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gütschow, Johannes; Jeffery, M. Louise; Gieseke, Robert; Gebel, Ronja; Stevens, David; Krapp, Mario; Rocha, Marcia

2016-11-01

To assess the history of greenhouse gas emissions and individual countries' contributions to emissions and climate change, detailed historical data are needed. We combine several published datasets to create a comprehensive set of emissions pathways for each country and Kyoto gas, covering the years 1850 to 2014 with yearly values, for all UNFCCC member states and most non-UNFCCC territories. The sectoral resolution is that of the main IPCC 1996 categories. Additional time series of CO2 are available for energy and industry subsectors. Country-resolved data are combined from different sources and supplemented using year-to-year growth rates from regionally resolved sources and numerical extrapolations to complete the dataset. Regional deforestation emissions are downscaled to country level using estimates of the deforested area obtained from potential vegetation and simulations of agricultural land. In this paper, we discuss the data sources and methods used and present the resulting dataset, including its limitations and uncertainties. The dataset is available from doi:10.5880/PIK.2016.003 and can be viewed on the website accompanying this paper (http://www.pik-potsdam.de/primap-live/primap-hist/).

Fort Collins Science Center fiscal year 2010 science accomplishments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Juliette T.

2011-01-01

The scientists and technical professionals at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Fort Collins Science Center (FORT), apply their diverse ecological, socioeconomic, and technological expertise to investigate complicated ecological problems confronting managers of the Nation's biological resources. FORT works closely with U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) agency scientists, the academic community, other USGS science centers, and many other partners to provide critical information needed to help answer complex natural-resource management questions. In Fiscal Year 2010 (FY10), FORT's scientific and technical professionals conducted ongoing, expanded, and new research vital to the science needs and management goals of DOI, other Federal and State agencies, and nongovernmental organizations in the areas of aquatic systems and fisheries, climate change, data and information integration and management, invasive species, science support, security and technology, status and trends of biological resources (including the socioeconomic aspects), terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems, and wildlife resources, including threatened and endangered species. This report presents selected FORT science accomplishments for FY10 by the specific USGS mission area or science program with which each task is most closely associated, though there is considerable overlap. The report also includes all FORT publications and other products published in FY10, as well as staff accomplishments, appointments, committee assignments, and invited presentations.

Evidence for enhanced debris flow activity in the Northern Calcareous Alps since the 1980s (Plansee, Austria)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietrich, Andreas; Krautblatter, Michael

2016-04-01

From 1950 to 2011 almost 80.000 people lost their lives through the occurrence of debris flow events (Dowling and Santi, 2014). Debris flows occur in all alpine regions due to intensive rainstorms and mobilisable loose debris. Due to their susceptible lithology, the Northern Calcareous Alps are affected by a double digit number of major hazard events per year. Some authors hypothesised a relation between an increasing frequency of heavy rainstorms and an increasing occurrence of landslides in general (Beniston and Douglas, 1996) and debris flows in special (Pelfini and Santilli, 2008), but yet there is only limited evidence. The Plansee catchment in the Ammergauer Alps consists of intensely jointed Upper Triassic Hauptdolomit lithology and therefore shows extreme debris flow activity. To investigate this activity in the last decades, the temporal and spatial development of eight active debris flow fans is examined with GIS and field mapping. The annual rates since the late 1940s are inferred accurately by using aerial photos from 1947, 1952, 1971, 1979, 1987, 2000 and 2010. These rates are compared to the mean Holocene/Lateglacial debris flow volume derived from the most prominent cone. The contact with the underlying till is revealed by electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). It shows that the mean annual debris flow volume has increased there by a factor of 10 from 1947-1952 (0.23 ± 0.07 10³m³/yr) to 1987-2000 (2.41 ± 0.66 10³m³/yr). A similar trend can be seen on all eight fans: mean post-1980 rates exceed pre-1980 rates by a factor of more than three. This increasing debris flow activity coincides with an enhanced rainstorm (def. 35 mm/d) frequency recorded at the nearest meteorological station. Since 1921 the frequency of heavy rainstorms has increased there on average by 10% per decade. Recent debris flow rates are also 2-3 times higher compared to mean Holocene/Lateglacial rates. Furthermore, we state a strong correlation between the non-vegetated catchment area and the annual debris flow volume. This might indicate a decadal positive feedback between enhanced rainstorm frequency and the occurrence of debris flows. The study contributes to a better understanding of the sensitivity of alpine catchments to heavy rainfall events in the context of climate change. Beniston, M., Douglas, G.F., 1996. Impacts of climate change on mountain regions. In: Watson, R.T., Zinyowera, M.C., Moss, R.H., Dokken, D.J. (Eds.), Climate Change 1995. Impacts, Adaptations and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analysis. Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp. 191-213. Dowling, C.A., Santi, P.M., 2014. Debris flows and their toll on human life: a global analysis of debris-flow fatalities from 1950 to 2011. Nat. Hazards 71, 203-227. doi: 10.1007/s11069-013-0907-4 Pelfini, M., Santilli, M., 2008. Frequency of debris flows and their relation with precipitation: A case study in the Central Alps, Italy. Geomorphology 101, 721-730. doi:10.1016/j.geomorph.2008.04.002

Actionable Science Lessons Emerging from the Department of Interior Climate Science Center Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMahon, G.; Meadow, A. M.; Mikels-Carrasco, J.

2015-12-01

The DOI Advisory Committee on Climate Change and Natural Resource Science (ACCCNRS) has recommended that co-production of actionable science be the core programmatic focus of the Climate Science Center enterprise. Efforts by the Southeast Climate Science Center suggest that the complexity of many climate adaptation decision problems (many stakeholders that can influence implementation of a decision; the problems that can be viewed at many scales in space and time; dynamic objectives with competing values; complex, non-linear systems) complicates development of research-based information that scientists and non-scientists view as comprehensible, trustworthy, legitimate, and accurate. Going forward, organizers of actionable science efforts should consider inclusion of a broad set of stakeholders, beyond formal decisionmakers, and ensure that sufficient resources are available to explore the interests and values of this broader group. Co-produced research endeavors should foster agency and collaboration across a wide range of stakeholders. We recognize that stakeholder agency may be constrained by scientific or political power structures that limit the ability to initiate discussion, make claims, and call things into question. Co-production efforts may need to be preceded by more descriptive assessments that summarize existing climate science in ways that stakeholders can understand and link with their concerns. Such efforts can build rapport and trust among scientists and non-scientists, and may help stakeholders and scientists alike to frame adaptation decision problems amenable to a co-production effort. Finally, university and government researchers operate within an evaluation structure that rewards researcher-driven science that, at the extreme, "throws information over the fence" in the hope that information users will make better decisions. Research evaluation processes must reward more consultative, collaborative, and collegial research approaches if researchers are to widely adopt co-production methods

An analysis of the daily precipitation variability in the Himalayan orogen using a statistical parameterisation and its potential in driving landscape evolution models with stochastic climatic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deal, Eric; Braun, Jean

2015-04-01

A current challenge in landscape evolution modelling is to integrate realistic precipitation patterns and behaviour into longterm fluvial erosion models. The effect of precipitation on fluvial erosion can be subtle as well as nonlinear, implying that changes in climate (e.g. precipitation magnitude or storminess) may have unexpected outcomes in terms of erosion rates. For example Tucker and Bras (2000) show theoretically that changes in the variability of precipitation (storminess) alone can influence erosion rate across a landscape. To complicate the situation further, topography, ultimately driven by tectonic uplift but shaped by erosion, has a major influence on the distribution and style of precipitation. Therefore, in order to untangle the coupling between climate, erosion and tectonics in an actively uplifting orogen where fluvial erosion is dominant it is important to understand how the 'rain dial' used in a landscape evolution model (LEM) corresponds to real precipitation patterns. One issue with the parameterisation of rainfall for use in an LEM is the difference between the timescales for precipitation (≤ 1 year) and landscape evolution (> 103 years). As a result, precipitation patterns must be upscaled before being integrated into a model. The relevant question then becomes: What is the most appropriate measure of precipitation on a millennial timescale? Previous work (Tucker and Bras, 2000; Lague, 2005) has shown that precipitation can be properly upscaled by taking into account its variable nature, along with its average magnitude. This captures the relative size and frequency of extreme events, ensuring a more accurate characterisation of the integrated effects of precipitation on erosion over long periods of time. In light of this work, we present a statistical parameterisation that accurately models the mean and daily variability of ground based (APHRODITE) and remotely sensed (TRMM) precipitation data in the Himalayan orogen with only a few parameters. We also demonstrate over what spatial and temporal scales this parameterisation applies and is stable. Applying the parameterisation over the Himalayan orogen reveals large-scale strike-perpendicular gradients in precipitation variability in addition to the long observed strike-perpendicular gradient in precipitation magnitude. This observation, combined with the theoretical work mentioned above, suggests that variability is an integral part of the interaction between climate and erosion. References Bras, R. L., & Tucker, G. E. (2000). A stochastic approach to modeling the role of rainfall variability in drainage basin evolution. Water Resources Research, 36(7), 1953-1964. doi:10.1029/2000WR900065 Lague, D. (2005). Discharge, discharge variability, and the bedrock channel profile. Journal of Geophysical Research, 110(F4), F04006. doi:10.1029/2004JF000259

Is Recent Warming Unprecedented in the Common Era? Insights from PAGES2k data and the Last Millennium Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erb, M. P.; Emile-Geay, J.; McKay, N.; Hakim, G. J.; Steig, E. J.; Anchukaitis, K. J.

2017-12-01

Paleoclimate observations provide a critical context for 20th century warming by putting recent climate change into a longer-term perspective. Previous work (e.g. IPCC AR3-5) has claimed that recent decades are exceptional in the context of past centuries, though these statements are usually accompanied by large uncertainties and little spatial detail. Here we leverage a recent multiproxy compilation (PAGES2k Consortium, 2017) to revisit this long-standing question. We do so via two complementary approaches. The first approach compares multi-decadal averages and trends in PAGES2k proxy records, which include trees, corals, ice cores, and more. Numerous proxy records reveal that late 20th century values are extreme compared to the remainder of the recorded period, although considerable variability exists in the signals preserved in individual records. The second approach uses the same PAGES2k data blended with climate model output to produce an optimal analysis: the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR; Hakim et al., 2016). Unlike proxy data, LMR is spatially-complete and explicitly models uncertainty in proxy records, resulting in objective error estimates. The LMR results show that for nearly every region of the world, late 20th century temperatures exceed temperatures in previous multi-decadal periods during the Common Era, and 20th century warming rates exceed rates in previous centuries. An uncertainty with the present analyses concerns the interpretation of proxy records. PAGES2k included only records that are primarily sensitive to temperature, but many proxies may be influenced by secondary non-temperature effects. Additionally, the issue of seasonality is important as, for example, many temperature-sensitive tree ring chronologies in the Northern Hemisphere respond to summer or growing season temperature rather than annual-means. These uncertainties will be further explored. References Hakim, G. J., et al., 2016: The last millennium climate reanalysis project: Framework and first results. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 121(12), 6745-6764. http://doi.org/10.1002/2016JD024751 PAGES2k Consortium, 2017: A global multiproxy database for temperature reconstructions of the Common Era. Scientific Data, 1-33. http://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2017.88

Implications of sediment redistribution on modeled sea-level changes over millennial timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferrier, Ken

2016-04-01

Sea level is a critical link in feedbacks among topography, tectonics, and climate. Over millennial timescales, changes in sea level reshape river networks, regulate organic carbon burial, influence sediment deposition, and set moving boundary conditions for landscape evolution. Sea-level changes influence tectonics by regulating rates and patterns of erosion and deposition, which perturb the surface loads that drive geodynamic processes at depth. These interactions are complex because sea-level changes are influenced by the geomorphic processes that they themselves modify, since sediment redistribution deforms the gravitational and crustal elevation fields that define sea level. A recent advance in understanding the coupling between sea level, tectonics, and topography was the incorporation of sediment redistribution into a gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model, which permits the computation of sea-level responses to erosion and deposition (Dalca et al., 2013, Geophysical Journal International). Here I use this model to quantify changes in sea level resulting from the erosion of some of the most rapidly eroding sites on Earth and the deposition of sediment offshore. These model results show that the sea-level fingerprints of sediment redistribution are strongly variable in space, and that they can represent a significant component of the total sea level change since the last interglacial. This work provides a basis for understanding a fundamental driver of landscape evolution at some of Earth's most geomorphically dynamic sites, and thus aids investigation of the couplings among tectonics, climate, and topography. References Dalca A.V., Ferrier K.L., Mitrovica J.X., Perron J.T., Milne G.A., Creveling J.R., 2013. On postglacial sea level - III. Incorporating sediment redistribution. Geophysical Journal International, doi: 10.1093/gji/ggt089.

Process Architecture for Managing Digital Object Identifiers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wanchoo, L.; James, N.; Stolte, E.

2014-12-01

In 2010, NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS) Project implemented a process for registering Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) for data products distributed by Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS). For the first 3 years, ESDIS evolved the process involving the data provider community in the development of processes for creating and assigning DOIs, and guidelines for the landing page. To accomplish this, ESDIS established two DOI User Working Groups: one for reviewing the DOI process whose recommendations were submitted to ESDIS in February 2014; and the other recently tasked to review and further develop DOI landing page guidelines for ESDIS approval by end of 2014. ESDIS has recently upgraded the DOI system from a manually-driven system to one that largely automates the DOI process. The new automated feature include: a) reviewing the DOI metadata, b) assigning of opaque DOI name if data provider chooses, and c) reserving, registering, and updating the DOIs. The flexibility of reserving the DOI allows data providers to embed and test the DOI in the data product metadata before formally registering with EZID. The DOI update process allows the changing of any DOI metadata except the DOI name unless the name has not been registered. Currently, ESDIS has processed a total of 557 DOIs of which 379 DOIs are registered with EZID and 178 are reserved with ESDIS. The DOI incorporates several metadata elements that effectively identify the data product and the source of availability. Of these elements, the Uniform Resource Locator (URL) attribute has the very important function of identifying the landing page which describes the data product. ESDIS in consultation with data providers in the Earth Science community is currently developing landing page guidelines that specify the key data product descriptive elements to be included on each data product's landing page. This poster will describe in detail the unique automated process and underlying system implemented by ESDIS for registering DOIs, as well as some of the lessons learned from the development of the process. In addition, this paper will summarize the recommendations made by the DOI Process and DOI Landing Page User Working Groups, and the procedures developed for implementing those recommendations.

Cloud evaluation using satellite simulators and cloud changes for global nonhydrostatic simulations with NICAM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, M.; Noda, A. T.; Kodama, C.; Yamada, Y.; Hashino, T.

2012-12-01

Global cloud distributions and properties simulated by the global nonhydrostatic model, NICAM (Nonhydrostatic Icosahedral Atmospheric Model), are evaluated and their future changes are discussed. First, we evaluated the simulated cloud properties produced by a case study of the 3.5km mesh experiment of NICAM using the satellite simulator package (the Joint-simulator) with cloud microphysics oriented approach (Hashino et al. 2012). Then, we analyzed future cloud changes using various sets of simulations under the present and the future global warming conditions. The results show that the zonal averaged ice water path (IWP) generally decreases or marginally unchanged in the tropics, while IWP in the extra-tropics increases. The upper cloud fraction increases both in the tropics and in the extra-tropics in general. We further analyzed contributions of cloud systems such as cloud clusters, tropical cyclones (TCs), and storm-tracks to these changes. Probability distribution of the larger cloud clusters decreases, while that of the smaller ones increases, consistent with the decrease in the number of tropical cyclones in the future climate. Average liquid water path (LWP) and IWP associated with each tropical cyclone are diagnosed, and it is found that both the associated LWP and IWP increase under the warmer condition. Even though, since the number of the intensive cloud systems decrease, the average IWP decreases. It should be remarked that the change in TC tracks largely contribute to the change in the horizontal distribution of clouds. The NICAM simulations also show that the storm-tracks shift poleward, and the storms become less frequent and stronger in the extra-tropics, similar to the results of other general circulation models. Both LWP and IWP associated with the storms also increase in the warmer climate in the NICAM simulations. This results in increase in the upper clouds under the warmer climate condition, as described by Miura et al. (2005). References: Hashino, T., Satoh, M., Hagihara, Y., Kubota, T., Matsui, T., Nasuno, T., and Okamoto, H. (2012), Evaluating Global Cloud Distribution and Microphysics from the NICAM against CloudSat and CALIPSO, J. Geophys. Res., submitted. Miura, H., Tomita,H., Nasuno,T., Iga, S., Satoh,M., and Matsuno, T. (2005), A climate sensitivity test using a global cloud resolving model under an aqua planet condition, Geophys. Res. Lett., 32, L19717, doi:10.1029/2005GL023672.

Social Cultural and Situative Perspective of Studying Emotions in Teaching and Learning: Characteristics, Challenges and Opportunities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tan, Seng-Chee

2013-01-01

In this forum, I take a learning sciences perspective to examine the paper by Bellocchi, Ritchie, Tobin, Sandhu and Sandhu ("Cultural Studies of Science Education," doi:10.1007/s11422-013-9526-3, 2013) titled "Examining emotional climate of preservice science teacher education." I characterize their approach as a social…

Submesoscale Flows and Mixing in the Ocean Surface Layer Using the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS)

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

chemical cycles, water quality, blooms , micro-nutrients, larval dispersal, biome transitions, and coupling to higher tropic levels. We collaborate with...Kurian, 2012: Heat balance and eddies in the Peru- Chile Current System. Climate Dynamics 39, 509-529, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1170-6. Colas, F., X

The role of ENSO in determining the emission, the speciation and the resulting fate of Hg from Biomass Burning, a lesson from the recent past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Simone, F.; Hedgecock, I. M.; Cinnirella, S.; Carbone, F.; Sprovieri, F.; Pirrone, N.

2017-12-01

The burning of vegetation is an environmental process that impacts the chemical composition of troposphere on a global scale, and has significant consequences on atmospheric pollution and climate. ENSO influences the alternating patterns of drier and wetter periods in almost all continents, therefore causing a rise in, and varying the timing of, fire activity in numerous regions and ecosystems (Le Page et al). A large amount of legacy Hg is currently buffered in different environmental compartments, including soil and vegetation, due to past and current anthropogenic processes and activities. Biomass Burning (BB) is a major source of atmospheric Hg, and a main driver in recycling this legacy Hg which is eventually re-deposited over land and oceans. Hg from BB is emitted mainly as Hg(0)(g), but a large fraction (up to 30% and more) is released as Hg bound to particulate matter, Hg(p), which is more likely to be deposited close to the fire activity (De Simone et al). Thus, speciation is one of the most important factors in determining the redistribution of Hg, and of the subsequent geographical distribution of its atmospheric deposition. Although the drivers controlling speciation remain uncertain, there is evidence that it depends on burn characteristics and fuel moisture content, which depends on the climatological characteristics of the regions where BB occurs (Obrist et al). The areas where atmospheric Hg is deposited depends ultimately on atmospheric transport, transformation and precipitation patterns, hence the fate of Hg emitted from BB is determined by a complex series of interacting processes and mechanisms, which begin with the release of Hg and continue until deposition. Many of these processes are influenced by ENSO. This modeling study analyses the deposition of Hg from BB using different satellite imagery based products, spanning a number of years, characterized by different ENSO regimes, to evaluate how it impacts BB, the speciation of emitted Hg, and ultimately the fate of Hg. The aim is to identify the key mechanism(s) involved in determining the final receptors of Hg recycled by BB changing climate. Le Page et al., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-8-1911-2008, 2008 De Simone et al., https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1881-2017, 2017 Obrist et al., https://doi.org/10.1021/es071279n

The Ocean Carbon States Database: a proof-of-concept application of cluster analysis in the ocean carbon cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latto, Rebecca; Romanou, Anastasia

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a database of the basic regimes of the carbon cycle in the ocean, the ocean carbon states, as obtained using a data mining/pattern recognition technique in observation-based as well as model data. The goal of this study is to establish a new data analysis methodology, test it and assess its utility in providing more insights into the regional and temporal variability of the marine carbon cycle. This is important as advanced data mining techniques are becoming widely used in climate and Earth sciences and in particular in studies of the global carbon cycle, where the interaction of physical and biogeochemical drivers confounds our ability to accurately describe, understand, and predict CO2 concentrations and their changes in the major planetary carbon reservoirs. In this proof-of-concept study, we focus on using well-understood data that are based on observations, as well as model results from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) climate model. Our analysis shows that ocean carbon states are associated with the subtropical-subpolar gyre during the colder months of the year and the tropics during the warmer season in the North Atlantic basin. Conversely, in the Southern Ocean, the ocean carbon states can be associated with the subtropical and Antarctic convergence zones in the warmer season and the coastal Antarctic divergence zone in the colder season. With respect to model evaluation, we find that the GISS model reproduces the cold and warm season regimes more skillfully in the North Atlantic than in the Southern Ocean and matches the observed seasonality better than the spatial distribution of the regimes. Finally, the ocean carbon states provide useful information in the model error attribution. Model air-sea CO2 flux biases in the North Atlantic stem from wind speed and salinity biases in the subpolar region and nutrient and wind speed biases in the subtropics and tropics. Nutrient biases are shown to be most important in the Southern Ocean flux bias. All data and analysis scripts are available at https://data.giss.nasa.gov/oceans/carbonstates/ (DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.996891).

Proposed Budget for U.S. Geological Survey: A Mixed Bag of Increases and Cuts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2011-03-01

Under the Obama administration's proposed fiscal year (FY) 2012 budget, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) would receive $1.1 billion, a scant $6.1 million more than the 2010 enacted budget. Within the agency, which is part of the Department of the Interior (DOI), some key initiatives slated for new or increased funding include the National Land Imaging Program, the USGS portion of the America's Great Outdoors Initiative, and DOI Climate Science Centers. However, the request also includes $89.1 million in program reductions and the elimination of some programs. With Congress currently considering a budget continuing resolution to fund the federal government through the end of the current fiscal year, 2011, USGS faces possible additional cuts.

Soil organic carbon on lands of the Department of the Interior

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bliss, Norman B.

2003-01-01

The stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) on the landscape are an important element in the global carbon cycle. Changes in soil carbon can change the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. If carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, captured through photosynthesis, is ultimately stored in the soil to an enhanced degree, the resulting soil carbon sequestration may help delay some of the undesirable consequences of global warming. If the conditions affecting the balance of photosynthesis and decomposition are changed to favor decomposition, then soil carbon can be released to the atmosphere as carbon dioxide or methane, contributing to greenhouse warming.The Department of the Interior (DOI) is the largest land management agency in the United States, with jurisdiction influencing more than 2 million square kilometers of land--about 22 percent of the total land area of the country. Estimates using available data indicate that the DOI lands have nearly 18 petagrams (Pg; 1 Pg = 1015 g = 1 gigaton) of SOC, which is about 22 percent of the estimate for the country (81 Pg). The distribution is not uniform, and few areas of DOI lands reflect “average” conditions. Large areas of land with low biological productivity occur in the conterminous U.S. part of the DOI lands, and substantial areas with high SOC occur in Alaska. About 74 percent of the SOC on DOI lands is in Alaska. Details on amounts of SOC by DOI Bureau and location are shown in a series of tables and maps. For the conterminous United States, statistics are given by land cover type and soil depth ranges.

Global Ocean Sedimentation Patterns: Plate Tectonic History Versus Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goswami, A.; Reynolds, E.; Olson, P.; Hinnov, L. A.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2014-12-01

Global sediment data (Whittaker et al., 2013) and carbonate content data (Archer, 1996) allows examination of ocean sedimentation evolution with respect to age of the underlying ocean crust (Müller et al., 2008). From these data, we construct time series of ocean sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate for the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian ocean basins for the past 120 Ma. These time series are unique to each basin and reflect an integrated response to plate tectonics and climate change. The goal is to parameterize ocean sedimentation tied to crustal age for paleoclimate studies. For each basin, total sediment thickness and carbonate deposition rate from 0.1 x 0.1 degree cells are binned according to basement crustal age; area-corrected moments (mean, variance, etc.) are calculated for each bin. Segmented linear fits identify trends in present-day carbonate deposition rates and changes in ocean sedimentation from 0 to 120 Ma. In the North and South Atlantic and Indian oceans, mean sediment thickness versus crustal age is well represented by three linear segments, with the slope of each segment increasing with increasing crustal age. However, the transition age between linear segments varies among the three basins. In contrast, mean sediment thickness in the North and South Pacific oceans are numerically smaller and well represented by two linear segments with slopes that decrease with increasing crustal age. These opposing trends are more consistent with the plate tectonic history of each basin being the controlling factor in sedimentation rates, rather than climate change. Unlike total sediment thickness, carbonate deposition rates decrease smoothly with crustal age in all basins, with the primary controls being ocean chemistry and water column depth.References: Archer, D., 1996, Global Biogeochem. Cycles 10, 159-174.Müller, R.D., et al., 2008, Science, 319, 1357-1362.Whittaker, J., et al., 2013, Geochem., Geophys., Geosyst. DOI: 10.1002/ggge.20181

Real-time analysis of ambient organic aerosols using aerosol flowing atmospheric-pressure afterglow mass spectrometry (AeroFAPA-MS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brüggemann, Martin; Karu, Einar; Stelzer, Torsten; Hoffmann, Thorsten

2015-04-01

Organic aerosol accounts for a major fraction of atmospheric aerosols and has implications on the earth's climate and human health. However, due to the chemical complexity its measurement remains a major challenge for analytical instrumentation.1 Here, we present the development, characterization and application of a new soft ionization technique that allows mass spectrometric real-time detection of organic compounds in ambient aerosols. The aerosol flowing atmospheric-pressure afterglow (AeroFAPA) ion source utilizes a helium glow discharge plasma to produce excited helium species and primary reagent ions. Ionization of the analytes occurs in the afterglow region after thermal desorption and results mainly in intact molecular ions, facilitating the interpretation of the acquired mass spectra. In the past, similar approaches were used to detect pesticides, explosives or illicit drugs on a variety of surfaces.2,3 In contrast, the AeroFAPA source operates 'online' and allows the detection of organic compounds in aerosols without a prior precipitation or sampling step. To our knowledge, this is the first application of an atmospheric-pressure glow discharge ionization technique to ambient aerosol samples. We illustrate that changes in aerosol composition and concentration are detected on the time scale of seconds and in the ng-m-3 range. Additionally, the successful application of AeroFAPA-MS during a field study in a mixed forest region in Central Europe is presented. Several oxidation products of monoterpenes were clearly identified using the possibility to perform tandem MS experiments. The acquired data are in agreement with previous studies and demonstrate that AeroFAPA-MS is a suitable tool for organic aerosol analysis. Furthermore, these results reveal the potential of this technique to enable new insights into aerosol formation, growth and transformation in the atmosphere. References: 1) IPCC, 2013: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Stocker, T.F., D. Qin, G.-K. Plattner, M. Tignor, S.K. Allen, J. Boschung, A. Nauels, Y. Xia, V. Bex and P.M. Midgley (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, in press. 2) Shelley, J. T.; Wiley, J. S.; Hieftje, G. M. Ultrasensitive Ambient Mass Spectrometric Analysis with a Pin-to-Capillary Flowing Atmospheric-Pressure Afterglow Source. Anal. Chem. 2011, 83(14), 5741-5748; DOI 10.1021/Ac201053q. 3) Albert, A.; Shelley, J.; Engelhard, C. Plasma-based ambient desorption/ionization mass spectrometry: state-of-the-art in qualitative and quantitative analysis. Anal Bioanal Chem 2014, 406(25), 6111-6127; DOI 10.1007/s00216-014-7989-z.

Statistical Techniques for Assessing water‐quality effects of BMPs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, John F.

1994-01-01

Little has been published on the effectiveness of various management practices in small rural lakes and streams at the watershed scale. In this study, statistical techniques were used to test for changes in water‐quality data from watersheds where best management practices (BMPs) were implemented. Reductions in data variability due to climate and seasonality were accomplished through the use of regression methods. This study discusses the merits of using storm‐mass‐transport data as a means of improving the ability to detect BMP effects on stream‐water quality. Statistical techniques were applied to suspended‐sediment records from three rural watersheds in Illinois for the period 1981–84. None of the techniques identified changes in suspended sediment, primarily because of the small degree of BMP implementation and because of potential errors introduced through the estimation of storm‐mass transport. A Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to determine the level of discrete change that could be detected for each watershed. In all cases, the use of regressions improved the ability to detect trends.Read More: http://ascelibrary.org/doi/abs/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9437(1994)120:2(334)

Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kusche, J.; Eicker, A.; Forootan, E.; Springer, A.; Longuevergne, L.

2016-12-01

Using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission, we derive statistically robust 'hotspot' regions of high probability of peak anomalous - i.e. with respect to the seasonal cycle - water storage (of up to 0.7 m one-in-five-year return level) and flux (up to 0.14 m/mon). Analysis of, and comparison with, up to 32 years of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields reveals generally good agreement of these hotspot regions to GRACE results, and that most exceptions are located in the Tropics. However, a simulation experiment reveals that differences observed by GRACE are statistically significant, and further error analysis suggests that by around the year 2020 it will be possible to detect temporal changes in the frequency of extreme total fluxes (i.e. combined effects of mainly precipitation and floods) for at least 10-20% of the continental area, assuming that we have a continuation of GRACE by its follow-up GRACE-FO. J. Kusche et al. (2016): Mapping probabilities of extreme continental water storage changes from space gravimetry, Geophysical Research Letters, accepted online, doi:10.1002/2016GL069538

Publications - DDS 9 | Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys

Science.gov Websites

Surveys Digital Data Series 9, http://doi.org/10.14509/shoreline. http://doi.org/10.14509/29504 positions in the Alaska shoreline change tool, 11 p. Digital Geospatial Data Digital Geospatial Data Emmonak

Characterization of Saharan mineral dust transported to the Colle Gnifetti glacier (Southern Alps, Switzerland) during the last centuries.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thevenon, Florian; Poté, John; Adatte, Thierry; Chiaradia, Massimo; Hueglin, Christoph; Collaud Coen, Martine

2010-05-01

The Southern Alps act as a barrier to the southwesterly dust-laden winds from the Sahara, and the Colle Gnifetti saddle (45°55'N, 7°52'E, 4455 m asl in the Monte Rosa Massif) satisfactory conserves the history of climatic conditions over the last millennium (Thevenon et al., 2009). Therefore, the Colle Gnifetti glacier is a suitable site for i) studying the composition of past Saharan aeolian dust emissions, and for ii) comparing modern dust emissions with preindustrial emissions. The mineral aerosols entrapped in the ice core have been analyzed for their physical (grain-size by image analysis), mineralogical (by X-ray diffraction), and chemical composition (by ICPMS and by mass spectrometry for Sr and Nd isotopic ratios). The mineral dust characteristics are then compared with present day Saharan dust samples collected at the high altitude research station Jungfraujoch (46°55'N, 7°98E, 3580 asl) and with documented potential dust sources. Results show that i) the increases in atmospheric dustiness correlate with larger mean grain size, and that ii) the dust emissions increase after the industrial revolution, probably as a large-scale atmospheric circulation response to anthropogenic climate forcing (Shindell et al., 2001; Thevenon et al., 2009). However, geochemical variations in aeolian mineral particles also indicate that the source areas of the dust, which are now situated in northern and north-western part of the Saharan desert (Collaud Coen et al., 2004), did not change significantly throughout the past. Therefore, the mineralogy (e.g. illite, kaolinite, chlorite, palygorskite) and the geochemistry of the paleo-dust particles transported to Europe, are relevant to assess past African dust sources. REFERENCES: - Thevenon, F., F. S. Anselmetti, S. M. Bernasconi, and M. Schwikowski (2009). Mineral dust and elemental black carbon records from an Alpine ice core (Colle Gnifetti glacier) over the last millennium. J. Geophys. Res., 114, D17102, doi:10.1029/2008JD011490. - Collaud Coen, M., E. Weingartner, D. Schaub, C. Hueglin, C. Corrigan, S. Henning, M. Schwikowski, and U. Baltensperger (2004), Saharan dust events at the Jungfraujoch: Detection by wavelength dependence of the single scattering albedo and first climatology analysis, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 4, 2465- 2480. - Shindell, D. T., G. A. Schmidt, M. E. Mann, D. Rind, and A. Waple (2001). Solar forcing of regional climate change during the Maunder Minimum, Science, 294, 2149-2152, doi:10.1126/science.1064363.

Modelling of groundwater recharge and drought statistics within the framework of a climate impact study in a Mediterranean catchment (Thau Lagoon, France)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrmann, Frank; Baghdadi, Nicolas; Deidda, Roberto; La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Ludwig, Ralf; Sellami, Haykel; Vereecken, Harry; Wendland, Frank

2014-05-01

According to current climate projections until the year 2100, Mediterranean countries are likely to be at high risk for decreasing groundwater recharge during the hydrological winter half year as well as increasing drought severity and duration during summer. Thus, the irrigation needs of agricultural land might increase during the vegetation period and will have to be covered regionally specific partially from groundwater resources. This issue seems to be equally important to be investigated compared to the possible future change of the river discharge regime under changed climate conditions. Within the framework of the EU-founded CLIMB project (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins) the water balance model mGROWA (Herrmann, 2013) was applied in order to simulate the water balance within the Thau Lagoon catchment (France) under present and possible future climate conditions. The model was originally developed in order to simulate actual evapotranspiration and runoff components (e.g. groundwater recharge) in daily time-steps and with high spatial resolution (50 m grid). Area-differentiated groundwater recharge and soil water content can be simulated consistently using mGROWA because of an integrated multi-layer soil water module. In the framework of CLIMB, this module has been extended by routines to calculate drought statistics. The mGROWA-model will be briefly introduced and its application to the Thau Lagoon catchment will be presented. At first water balance was simulated for the reference period (1995-2010) based on observed climate data. Special attention will be paid to the simulated temporal variable water content in the root zone and thus to percolation water fluxes and drought statistics. Second, a possible bandwidth of future groundwater recharge (until 2070) is forecasted using climate data from a Regional-Climate-Modell-ensemble (RCM; Deidda, 2013). Three of the four RCM-mGROWA combinations indicate decreasing groundwater recharge up to 25 mm/a until 2070 compared to the reference period 1971-2000, whereas one RCM-mGROWA combination projects a nearly constant level of groundwater recharge for the future. The calculated drought indices however indicate that the frequency and duration of droughts will increase until 2070. References: Deidda R., M. Marrocu, G. Caroletti, G. Pusceddu, A. Langousis, V. Lucarini, M. Puliga, and A. Speranza (2013), Regional climate models' performance in representing precipitation and temperature over selected Mediterranean areas, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17, 5041-5059, doi:10.5194/hess-17-5041-2013 Herrmann, F., Chen, S., Heidt, L., Elbracht, J., Engel, N., Kunkel, R., Müller, U., Röhm, H., Vereecken, H., Wendland, F., 2013. Zeitlich und räumlich hochaufgelöste flächendifferenzierte Simulation des Landschaftswasserhaushalts in Niedersachsen mit dem Model mGROWA. Hydrologie und Wasserbewirtschaftung, 57(5): 206-224.

An efficient climate model with water isotope physics: NEEMY

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, J.; Emile-Geay, J.

2015-12-01

This work describes the development of an isotope-enabled atmosphere-ocean global climate model, NEEMY. This is a model of intermediate complexity, which can run 100 model years in 30 hours using 33 CPUs. The atmospheric component is the SPEEDY-IER (Molteni et al. 2003; Dee et al. 2015a), which is a water isotope-enabled (with equilibrium and kinetic fractionation schemes in precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture) simplified atmospheric general circulation model, with T30 horizontal resolution and 8 vertical layers. The oceanic component is NEMO 3.4 (Madec 2008), a state-of-the-art oceanic model (~2° horizontal resolution and 31 vertical layers) with an oceanic isotope module (a passive tracer scheme). A 1000-year control run shows that NEEMY is stable and its energy is conserved. The mean state is comparable to that of CMIP3-era CGCMs, though much cheaper to run. Atmospheric teleconnections such as the NAO and PNA are simulated very well. NEEMY also simulates the oceanic meridional overturning circulation well. The tropical climate variability is weaker than observations, and the climatology exhibits a double ITCZ problem despite bias corrections. The standard deviation of the monthly mean Nino3.4 index is 0.61K, compared to 0.91K in observations (Reynolds et al. 2002). We document similarities and differences with a close cousin, SPEEDY-NEMO (Kucharski et al. 2015). With its fast speed and relatively complete physical processes, NEEMY is suitable for paleoclimate studies ; we will present some forced simulations of the past millennium and their use in forward-modeling climate proxies, via proxy system models (PSMs, Dee et al 2015b). References Dee, S., D. Noone, N. Buenning, J. Emile-Geay, and Y. Zhou, 2015a: SPEEDY-IER: A fast atmospheric GCM with water isotope physics. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 120: 73-91. doi:10.1002/2014JD022194. Dee, S. G., J. Emile-Geay, M. N. Evans, Allam, A., D. M. Thompson, and E. J. Steig, 2015b: PRYSM: an open-source framework for proxy system modeling, with applications to oxygen-isotope systems, J. Adv. Mod. Earth Sys., 07, doi:10.1002/2015MS000447. Kucharski et al., 2015: Atlantic forcing of Pacific decadal variability. Clim. Dyn., doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2705-z.

The representation of non-equilibrium soil types in earth system models and its impact on carbon cycle projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hugelius, G.; Ahlström, A.; Canadell, J.; Koven, C. D.; Jackson, R. B.; Luo, Y.

2016-12-01

Soils hold the largest reactive pool of carbon (C) on earth. Global soil organic C stocks (0-200 cm depth plus full peatland depth) are estimated to 2200 Pg C (adapted from Hugelius et al., 2014, Köchy et al., 2015 and Batjes, 2016). Soil C stocks in Earth system models (ESMs) can be generated by running the model over a longer time period until soil C pools are in or near steady-state. Inherent in this concept is the idea that soil C stocks are in (quasi)equilibrium as determined by the balance of net ecosystem input to soil organic matter and its turnover. The rate of turnover is sometimes subdivided into several pools and the rates are affected by various environmental factors. Here we break down the empirically based estimates of global soil C pools into equilibrium-type soils which current (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5; CMIP5) generation ESMs are set-up to represent and non-equilibrium type soils which are generally not represented in current ESMs. We define equilibrium soils as those where pedogenesis (and associated soil C formation) is not significantly limited by the environmental factors perennial soil freezing, waterlogging/anoxia or limited unconsolidated soil substrate. This is essentially all permafrost-free mineral soils that are not in a wetland or alpine setting. On the other hand, non-equlibrium soils are defined as permafrost soils, peatlands and alpine soils with a limited fine-soil matrix. Based on geospatial analyses of state-of-the-art datasets on soil C stocks, we estimate that the global soil C pool is divided roughly equally between equilibrium and non-equlibrium type soils. We discuss the ways in which this result affects C cycling in ESMs and projections of soil C sensitivity under a changing climate. ReferencesBatjes N.H. (2016) Geoderma, 269, 61-68, doi: 10.1016/j.geoderma.2016.01.034 Hugelius G. et al. (2014) Biogeosciences, 11, 6573-6593, doi:10.5194/bg-11-6573-2014 Köchy M. et al. (2015) Soil 1, 351-365. DOI: doi:10.5194/soil-1-351-2015

Oxygen isotopes as a tool to quantify reservoir-scale CO2 pore-space saturation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serno, Sascha; Flude, Stephanie; Johnson, Gareth; Mayer, Bernard; Boyce, Adrian; Karolyte, Ruta; Haszeldine, Stuart; Gilfillan, Stuart

2017-04-01

Structural and residual trapping of carbon dioxide (CO2) are two key mechanisms of secure CO2 storage, an essential component of Carbon Capture and Storage technology [1]. Estimating the amount of CO2 that is trapped by these two mechanisms is a vital requirement for accurately assessing the secure CO2 storage capacity of a formation, but remains a key challenge. Recent field [2,3] and laboratory experiment studies [4] have shown that simple and relatively inexpensive measurements of oxygen isotope ratios in both the injected CO2 and produced water can provide an assessment of the amount of CO2 that is stored by these processes. These oxygen isotope assessments on samples obtained from observation wells provide results which are comparable to other geophysical techniques. In this presentation, based on the first comprehensive review of oxygen isotope ratios measured in reservoir waters and CO2 from global CO2 injection projects, we will outline the advantages and potential limitations of using oxygen isotopes to quantify CO2 pore-space saturation. We will further summarise the currently available information on the oxygen isotope composition of captured CO2. Finally, we identify the potential issues in the use of the oxygen isotope shifts in the reservoir water from baseline conditions to estimate accurate saturations of the pore space with CO2, and suggest how these issues can be reduced or avoided to provide reliable CO2 pore-space saturations on a reservoir scale in future field experiments. References [1] Scott et al., (2013) Nature Climate Change, Vol. 3, 105-111 doi:10.1038/nclimate1695 [2] Johnson et al., (2011) Chemical Geology, Vol. 283, 185-193 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.06.019 [3] Serno et al., (2016) IJGGC, Vol. 52, 73-83 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2016.06.019 [4] Johnson et al., (2011) Applied Geochemistry, Vol. 26 (7) 1184-1191 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeochem.2011.04.007

Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emile-Geay, J.; Tingley, M.

2013-12-01

Many paleoclimate analyses assume a linear relationship between the proxy and the target climate variable, and that both the climate quantity and the errors follow normal distributions. An ever-increasing number of proxy records, however, are better modeled using distributions that are heavy-tailed, skewed, or otherwise non-normal, on account of the proxies reflecting non-normally distributed climate variables, or having non-linear relationships with a normally distributed climate variable. The analysis of such proxies requires a different set of tools, and this work serves as a cautionary tale on the danger of making conclusions about the underlying climate from applications of classic statistical procedures to heavily skewed proxy records. Inspired by runoff proxies, we consider an idealized proxy characterized by a nonlinear, thresholded relationship with climate, and describe three approaches to using such a record to infer past climate: (i) applying standard methods commonly used in the paleoclimate literature, without considering the non-linearities inherent to the proxy record; (ii) applying a power transform prior to using these standard methods; (iii) constructing a Bayesian model to invert the mechanistic relationship between the climate and the proxy. We find that neglecting the skewness in the proxy leads to erroneous conclusions and often exaggerates changes in climate variability between different time intervals. In contrast, an explicit treatment of the skewness, using either power transforms or a Bayesian inversion of the mechanistic model for the proxy, yields significantly better estimates of past climate variations. We apply these insights in two paleoclimate settings: (1) a classical sedimentary record from Laguna Pallcacocha, Ecuador (Moy et al., 2002). Our results agree with the qualitative aspects of previous analyses of this record, but quantitative departures are evident and hold implications for how such records are interpreted, and compared to other proxy records. (2) a multiproxy reconstruction of temperature over the Common Era (Mann et al., 2009), where we find that about one third of the records display significant departures from normality. Accordingly, accounting for skewness in proxy predictors has a notable influence on both reconstructed global mean and spatial patterns of temperature change. Inferring climate variability from skewed proxy records thus requires cares, but can be done with relatively simple tools. References - Mann, M. E., Z. Zhang, S. Rutherford, R. S. Bradley, M. K. Hughes, D. Shindell, C. Ammann, G. Faluvegi, and F. Ni (2009), Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly, Science, 326(5957), 1256-1260, doi:10.1126/science.1177303. - Moy, C., G. Seltzer, D. Rodbell, and D. Anderson (2002), Variability of El Niño/Southern Oscillation activ- ity at millennial timescales during the Holocene epoch, Nature, 420(6912), 162-165.

Changing Susceptibility to Non-Optimum Temperatures in Japan, 1972-2012: The Role of Climate, Demographic, and Socioeconomic Factors.

PubMed

Chung, Yeonseung; Yang, Daewon; Gasparrini, Antonio; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Fook Sheng Ng, Chris; Kim, Yoonhee; Honda, Yasushi; Hashizume, Masahiro

2018-05-02

Previous studies have shown that population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures has changed over time, but little is known about the related time-varying factors that underlie the changes. Our objective was to investigate the changing population susceptibility to non-optimum temperatures in 47 prefectures of Japan over four decades from 1972 to 2012, addressing three aspects: minimum mortality temperature (MMT) and heat- and cold-related mortality risks. In addition, we aimed to examine how these aspects of susceptibility were associated with climate, demographic, and socioeconomic variables. We first used a two-stage time-series design with a time-varying distributed lag nonlinear model and multivariate meta-analysis to estimate the time-varying MMT, heat- and cold-related mortality risks. We then applied linear mixed effects models to investigate the association between each of the three time-varying aspects of susceptibility and various time-varying factors. MMT increased from 23.2 [95% confidence interval (CI): 23, 23.6] to 28.7 (27.0, 29.7) °C. Heat-related mortality risk [relative risk (RR) for the 99th percentile of temperature vs. the MMT] decreased from 1.18 (1.15, 1.21) to 1.01 (0.98, 1.04). Cold-related mortality risk (RR for the first percentile vs. the MMT) generally decreased from 1.48 (1.41, 1.54) to 1.35 (1.32, 1.40), with the exception of a few eastern prefectures that showed increased risk. The changing patterns in all three aspects differed by region, sex, and causes of death. Higher mean temperature was associated ( p <0.01) with lower heat risk, whereas higher humidity was associated with higher cold risk. A higher percentage of elderly people was associated with a higher cold risk, whereas higher economic strength of the prefecture was related to lower cold risk. Population susceptibility to heat has decreased over the last four decades in Japan. Susceptibility to cold has decreased overall except for several eastern prefectures where it has either increased or remained unchanged. Certain climate, demographic, and socioeconomic factors explored in the current study might underlie this changing susceptibility. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2546.

Usefulness and limitations of global flood risk models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Philip; Jongman, Brenden; Salamon, Peter; Simpson, Alanna; Bates, Paul; De Groeve, Tom; Muis, Sanne; Coughlan de Perez, Erin; Rudari, Roberto; Mark, Trigg; Winsemius, Hessel

2016-04-01

Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742

Volatile organic compound emissions from arctic vegetation highly responsive to experimental warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rinnan, Riikka; Kramshøj, Magnus; Lindwall, Frida; Schollert, Michelle; Svendsen, Sarah H.; Valolahti, Hanna

2017-04-01

Arctic areas are experiencing amplified climate warming that proceeds twice as fast as the global temperature increase. The increasing temperature is already causing evident alterations, e.g. changes in the vegetation cover as well as thawing of permafrost. Climate warming and the concomitant biotic and abiotic changes are likely to have strong direct and indirect effects on emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from arctic vegetation. We used long-term field manipulation experiments in the Subarctic, Low Arctic and High Arctic to assess effects of climate change on VOC emissions from vegetation communities. In these experiments, we applied passive warming with open-top chambers alone and in combination with other experimental treatments in well-replicated experimental designs. Volatile emissions were sampled in situ by drawing air from plant enclosures and custom-built chambers into adsorbent cartridges, which were analyzed by thermal desorption and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry in laboratory. Emission increases by a factor of 2-5 were observed under experimental warming by only a few degrees, and the strong response seems universal for dry, mesic and wet ecosystems. In some cases, these vegetation community level responses were partly due to warming-induced increases in the VOC-emitting plant biomass, changes in species composition and the following increase in the amount of leaf litter (Valolahti et al. 2015). In other cases, the responses appeared before any vegetation changes took place (Lindwall et al. 2016) or even despite a decrease in plant biomass (Kramshøj et al. 2016). VOC emissions from arctic ecosystems seem more responsive to experimental warming than other ecosystem processes. We can thus expect large increases in future VOC emissions from this area due to the direct effects of temperature increase, and due to increasing plant biomass and a longer growing season. References Kramshøj M., Vedel-Petersen I., Schollert M., Rinnan Å., Nymand J., Ro-Poulsen H., Rinnan R. (2016) Large increases in arctic biogenic volatile emissions are a direct effect of warming. Nature Geoscience 9: 349-352. Lindwall F., Schollert M., Michelsen A., Blok D., Rinnan R. (2016) Fourfold higher tundra volatile emissions due to arctic summer warming. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 121: 895-902, doi: 10.1002/2015JG003295. Valolahti H., Kivimäenpää M., Faubert P., Michelsen A., Rinnan R. (2015) Climate change-induced vegetation change as a driver of increased subarctic biogenic volatile organic compound emissions. Global Change Biology 21: 3478-3488.

Toward a Global 1/25 deg HYCOM Ocean Prediction System with Tides

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

Wallcraft, C. Lozano, H. L.Tolman, A. Srinivasan, S. Hankin, P. Cornillon, R. Weisberg, A. Barth, R. He, C. Werner, and J. Wilkin , 2009. U.S. GODAE...United States. Climate Dynamics, doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0988-7. Xu, X., W.J. Schmitz Jr., H.E. Hurlburt, P.J. Hogan , and E.P. Chassignet, 2010. Transport

How to Create Nonreaders: Reflections on Motivation, Learning, and Sharing Power

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kohn, Alfie

2010-01-01

The author suggests that it is impossible to motivate students. He said that in fact, it's not really possible to motivate anyone, except perhaps oneself. What a teacher "can" do--"all" a teacher can do--is work with students to create a classroom culture, a climate, a curriculum that will nourish and sustain the fundamental inclinations that…

Thaw pond dynamics and carbon emissions in a Siberian lowland tundra landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Huissteden, Ko; Heijmans, Monique; Dean, Josh; Meisel, Ove; Goovaerts, Arne; Parmentier, Frans-Jan; Schaepman-Strub, Gabriela; Belelli Marchesini, Luca; Kononov, Alexander; Maximov, Trofim; Borges, Alberto; Bouillon, Steven

2017-04-01

Arctic climate change induces drastic changes in permafrost surface wetness. As a result of thawing ground ice bodies, ice wedge troughs and thaw ponds are formed. Alternatively, ongoing thaw may enhance drainage as a result of increased interconnectedness of thawing ice wedge troughs, as inferred from a model study (Liljedahl et al., 2016, Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2674). However, a recent review highlighted the limited predictability of consequences of thawing permafrost on hydrology (Walvoord and Kurylyk, 2016, Vadose Zone J., DOI:10.2136/vzj2016.01.0010). Overall, these changes in tundra wetness modify carbon cycling in the Arctic and in particular the emissions of CO2 and CH4 to the atmosphere, providing a possibly positive feedback on climate change. Here we present the results of a combined remote sensing, geomorphological, vegetation and biogechemical study of thaw ponds in Arctic Siberian tundra, at Kytalyk research station near Chokurdakh, Indigirka lowlands. The station is located in an area dominated by Pleistocene ice-rich 'yedoma' sediments and drained thaw lake bottoms of Holocene age. The development of three types of ponds in the Kytalyk area (polygon centre ponds, ice wedge troughs and thaw ponds) has been traced with high resolution satellite and aerial imagery. The remote sensing data show net areal expansion of all types of ponds. Next to formation of new ponds, local vegetation change from dry vegetation types to wet, sedge-dominated vegetation is common. Thawing ice wedges and thaw ponds show an increase in area and number at most studied locations. In particular the area of polygon centre ponds increased strongly between 2010 and 2015, but this is highly sensitive to antecedent precipitation conditions. Despite a nearly 60% increase of the area of thawing ice wedge troughs, there is no evidence of decreasing water surfaces by increasing drainage through connected ice wedge troughs. The number of thaw ponds shows an equilibrium between newly formed and disappearing ponds, although their net area increased by 16%. The disappearing of ponds was mostly the result of vegetation succession, rather than drainage. This vegetation succession results from an invasion by sedges, followed by establishment of Sphagnum and seedlings of dwarf shrubs. The formation of thaw ponds and troughs resulting from small-scale permafrost collapse results in a drastic change of CH4 and CO2 emissions, from near-zero emission or uptake to high emission. New water surfaces with drowned dry tundra vegetation show the highest emission. However, rapid vegetation succession may mitigate these emissions over time, in particular in the relatively shallow thaw ponds. In contrast, the polygon centre ponds with a stable, oligotrophic vegetation show modest and constant CH4 emission and CO2 uptake.

Speleothem stable isotope records for east-central Europe: resampling sedimentary proxy records to obtain evenly spaced time series with spectral guidance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gábor Hatvani, István; Kern, Zoltán; Leél-Őssy, Szabolcs; Demény, Attila

2018-01-01

Uneven spacing is a common feature of sedimentary paleoclimate records, in many cases causing difficulties in the application of classical statistical and time series methods. Although special statistical tools do exist to assess unevenly spaced data directly, the transformation of such data into a temporally equidistant time series which may then be examined using commonly employed statistical tools remains, however, an unachieved goal. The present paper, therefore, introduces an approach to obtain evenly spaced time series (using cubic spline fitting) from unevenly spaced speleothem records with the application of a spectral guidance to avoid the spectral bias caused by interpolation and retain the original spectral characteristics of the data. The methodology was applied to stable carbon and oxygen isotope records derived from two stalagmites from the Baradla Cave (NE Hungary) dating back to the late 18th century. To show the benefit of the equally spaced records to climate studies, their coherence with climate parameters is explored using wavelet transform coherence and discussed. The obtained equally spaced time series are available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875917.

Land cover maps, BVOC emissions, and SOA burden in a global aerosol-climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanelle, Tanja; Henrot, Alexandra; Bey, Isaelle

2015-04-01

It has been reported that different land cover representations influence the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) (e.g. Guenther et al., 2006). But the land cover forcing used in model simulations is quite uncertain (e.g. Jung et al., 2006). As a consequence the simulated emission of BVOCs depends on the applied land cover map. To test the sensitivity of global and regional estimates of BVOC emissions on the applied land cover map we applied 3 different land cover maps into our global aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2.2. We found a high sensitivity for tropical regions. BVOCs are a very prominent precursor for the production of Secondary Organic Aerosols (SOA). Therefore the sensitivity of BVOC emissions on land cover maps impacts the SOA burden in the atmosphere. With our model system we are able to quantify that impact. References: Guenther et al. (2006), Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181-3210, doi:10.5194/acp-6-3181-2006. Jung et al. (2006), Exploiting synergies of global land cover products for carbon cycle modeling, Rem. Sens. Environm., 101, 534-553, doi:10.1016/j.rse.2006.01.020.

The CRUTEM4 land-surface air temperature data set: construction, previous versions and dissemination via Google Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborn, T. J.; Jones, P. D.

2014-02-01

The CRUTEM4 (Climatic Research Unit Temperature, version 4) land-surface air temperature data set is one of the most widely used records of the climate system. Here we provide an important additional dissemination route for this data set: online access to monthly, seasonal and annual data values and time series graphs via Google Earth. This is achieved via an interface written in Keyhole Markup Language (KML) and also provides access to the underlying weather station data used to construct the CRUTEM4 data set. A mathematical description of the construction of the CRUTEM4 data set (and its predecessor versions) is also provided, together with an archive of some previous versions and a recommendation for identifying the precise version of the data set used in a particular study. The CRUTEM4 data set used here is available from doi:10.5285/EECBA94F-62F9-4B7C-88D3-482F2C93C468.

Reducing the Uncertainty in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Projections Using Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olson, R.; An, S. I.

2016-12-01

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the ocean might slow down in the future, which can lead to a host of climatic effects in North Atlantic and throughout the world. Despite improvements in climate models and availability of new observations, AMOC projections remain uncertain. Here we constrain CMIP5 multi-model ensemble output with observations of a recently developed AMOC index to provide improved Bayesian predictions of future AMOC. Specifically, we first calculate yearly AMOC index loosely based on Rahmstorf et al. (2015) for years 1880—2004 for both observations, and the CMIP5 models for which relevant output is available. We then assign a weight to each model based on a Bayesian Model Averaging method that accounts for differential model skill in terms of both mean state and variability. We include the temporal autocorrelation in climate model errors, and account for the uncertainty in the parameters of our statistical model. We use the weights to provide future weighted projections of AMOC, and compare them to un-weighted ones. Our projections use bootstrapping to account for uncertainty in internal AMOC variability. We also perform spectral and other statistical analyses to show that AMOC index variability, both in models and in observations, is consistent with red noise. Our results improve on and complement previous work by using a new ensemble of climate models, a different observational metric, and an improved Bayesian weighting method that accounts for differential model skill at reproducing internal variability. Reference: Rahmstorf, S., Box, J. E., Feulner, G., Mann, M. E., Robinson, A., Rutherford, S., & Schaffernicht, E. J. (2015). Exceptional twentieth-century slowdown in atlantic ocean overturning circulation. Nature Climate Change, 5(5), 475-480. doi:10.1038/nclimate2554

Pre-treatment with 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) causes long-lasting changes in 5-HT2A receptor-mediated glucose utilization in the rat brain.

PubMed

Bull, Eleanor J; Porkess, Veronica; Rigby, Michael; Hutson, Peter H; Fone, Kevin C F

2006-03-01

The current study examined the long-term effect of brief exposure to 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) on local cerebral glucose utilization (LCGU) in specific brain regions immediately following administration of the 5-HT2A/2C receptor agonist, 1-(2,5-dimethoxy-4-iodophenyl)-2-aminopropane (DOI). Wistar rats (post-natal day (PND) 28, n = 24) were administered MDMA (5 mg/kg, i.p.) or saline (1 ml/kg, i.p.) four times daily for 2 consecutive days and core body temperature was recorded. Fifty-five days later and 10 min following injection of DOI (1 mg/kg, i.p.) or saline, LCGU was measured using the [14C]2-deoxyglucose (2-DG) technique. In the 4 hours following the initial injection (PND 28), MDMA-treated rats exhibited significant hyperthermia compared with saline-treated controls (p < 0.05-0.01). Eight weeks later, immediately following DOI challenge, LCGU was significantly elevated (an increase of 47%, p < 0.05) in the nucleus accumbens of MDMA/DOI pretreated rats, compared with that in MDMA/saline pre-treated controls. A similar trend was observed in other areas such as the lateral habenula, somatosensory cortex and hippocampal regions (percentage changes of 27-41%), but these did not reach significance. Blood glucose levels were significantly elevated in both groups of DOI-treated rats (p < 0.05-0.01). Thus, brief exposure of young rats to an MDMA regimen previously shown to cause anxiety-like behaviour and modest serotonergic neurotoxicity (Bull et al., 2004) increased DOI-induced energy metabolism in the nucleus accumbens and tended to increase metabolism in other brain regions, including the hippocampus, consistent with the induction of long-term brain region specific changes in synaptic plasticity.

A Model for Data Citation in Astronomical Research Using Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novacescu, Jenny; Peek, Joshua E. G.; Weissman, Sarah; Fleming, Scott W.; Levay, Karen; Fraser, Elizabeth

2018-05-01

Standardizing and incentivizing the use of digital object identifiers (DOIs) to aggregate and identify both data analyzed and data generated by a research project will advance the field of astronomy to match best practices in other research fields like geoscience and medicine. An increase in the use of DOIs will prepare the discipline for changing expectations among funding agencies and publishers, who increasingly expect accurate and thorough data citation to accompany scientific outputs. The use of DOIs ensures a robust, sustainable, and interoperable approach to data citation in which due credit is given to the researchers and institutions who produce and maintain the primary data. We describe in this work the advantages of DOIs for data citation and best practices for integrating a DOI service in an astronomical archive. We report on a pilot project carried out in collaboration with AAS journals. During the course of the 1.5-year long pilot, over 75% of submitting authors opted to use the integrated DOI service to clearly identify data analyzed during their research project when prompted at the time of paper submission.

The combined influence of the main European circulation patterns on carbon uptake by ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bastos, Ana; Gouveia, Célia; Trigo, Ricardo

2014-05-01

Understanding how natural climate variability affects carbon uptake by land and ocean pools is particularly relevant to better characterize human impact on the carbon cycle. Recently, we have contributed to assess the major role played by the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation in driving inter-annual variability (IAV) of carbon uptake by land ecosystems and significantly influencing global CO2 air-borne fraction [1]. Despite the prominent role played by ENSO, other important teleconnections on the hemispheric scale have deserved less attention. On the European scale, the main mode of variability is the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which controls storm tracks position and drives changes in temperature and precipitation over the whole region, affecting vegetation dynamics [2]. Besides NAO, a few additional large scale circulation patterns the Scandinavian (SC) and East-Atlantic (EA) Patterns, are also known to influence significantly the European climate [3]. Different combinations of these teleconnection polarities have been recently shown to modulate the overall role of the NAO impact location and strength, thus affecting winter temperature and precipitation patterns over Europe [4]. This work aims to answer the following questions: (i) how do NAO, EA and SC affect vegetation carbon uptake IAV? (ii) do the interactions between these three modes have a significant impact on land CO2 IAV? (iii) what is the contribution of the different physical variables to ecosystems' response to these modes? (iv) how well do the state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 represent these climate variability modes and the corresponding carbon fluxes? We first analyze observational data to assess the relationships between the different combinations of NAO, SC and EA polarities and IAV of gross and net primary production (GPP and NPP, respectively), as well as the most relevant driving factors of ecosystem's response to those variability patterns. Although the winter state of NAO has, as expected, the largest impact on European-wide carbon uptake patterns, the other modes appear to have a strong influence in particular regions, presenting overlapping effects with different signs which are due to differentiated responses to temperature and precipitation variability. We then rely on the historical experiment (CO2 concentration driven) of 12 ESMs from CMIP5 to assess the capability of those models to represent NAO, EA and SC patterns, the associated physical variables as well as the corresponding land carbon fluxes. Although all models simulate NAO reasonably well, and most represent EA and SC patterns satisfactorily, the response of the carbon cycle to these variability modes still needs further improvements. References [1] Bastos, A., Running, S. W., Gouveia, C.M., Trigo, R.M., (2013): J. Geophys. Res. Biogeosci.,118, 1247-1255, doi:10.1002/jgrg.20100. [2] Gouveia, C.M., Trigo, R. M., DaCamara, C. C., Libonati, R., Pereira, J. M. C. (2008): Int. J. Climatol., 28, 1835-1847, doi: 10.1002/joc.1682. [3] Trigo R.M., Valente M.A., Trigo I.F., Miranda P.M., Ramos A.M., Paredes D., García-Herrera R. (2008): Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, 1146, 212-234, doi: 10.1196/annals.1446.014. [4] Comas-Bru, L., McDermott, F. (2013): Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., doi: 10.1002/qj.2158.

A historical land use data set for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein Goldewijk, Kees

2016-04-01

Land use plays an important role in the climate system (Feddema et al., 2005). Many ecosystem processes are directly or indirectly climate driven, and together with human driven land use changes, they determine how the land surface will evolve through time. To assess the effects of land cover changes on the climate system, models are required which are capable of simulating interactions between the involved components of the Earth system (land, atmosphere, ocean, and carbon cycle). Since driving forces for global environmental change differ among regions, a geographically (spatially) explicit modeling approach is called for, so that it can be incorporated in global and regional (climate and/or biophysical) change models in order to enhance our understanding of the underlying processes and thus improving future projections. Integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleo-environmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. But, if we can adequately understand the past, we can use that understanding to influence our decisions and to create a better, more sustainable and desirable future. Some researchers suggest that mankind has shifted from living in the Holocene (~emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (~humans capable of changing the Earth' atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land use changes (e.g. collapse of the Roman Empire in the 4th century, the depopulation of Europe due to the Black Plague in the 14th century and the aftermath of the colonization of the Americas in the 16th century), some believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time (Ruddiman, 2003; Kaplan et al., 2010). Many uncertainties still remain today and gaps in our knowledge of the Antiquity and its aftermath can only be improved by interdisciplinary research, of which some examples will be given. Here I will present the latest update (v 3.2) of the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) (Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011) with new quantitative estimates of the underlying demographic and agricultural developments for the Holocene. References Feddema, J.J., Oleson, K.W., Bonan, G.B., Mearns, L.O., Buja, L.E., Meehl, G.A. & Washington, W.M. (2005) Atmospheric science: The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science, 310, 1674-1678. Kaplan, J.O., Krumhardt, K.M., Ellis, E.C., Ruddiman, W.F., Lemmen, C. & Klein Goldewijk, K. (2010) Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change. The Holocene, 20, doi:10.1177/0959683610386983 Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., van Drecht, G. & de Vos, M. (2011) The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human induced land use change over the past 12,000 years. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20, 73-86. Ruddiman, W.F. (2003) The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago. Climatic Change, 61, 261-293.

Multi-year GNSS monitoring of atmospheric IWV over Central and South America for climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendoza, Luciano; Bianchi, Clara; Fernández, Laura; Natali, María Paula; Meza, Amalia; Moirano, Juan

2017-04-01

Atmospheric water vapour has been acknowledged as an essential climate variable. Weather prediction and hazard assessment systems benefit from real-time observations, whereas long-term records contribute to climate studies. Nowadays, ground-based GNSS products have become widely employed, complementing satellite observations over the oceans. Although the past decade has seen a significant development of the GNSS infrastructure in Central and South America, its potential for atmospheric water vapour monitoring has not been fully exploited. With this in mind, we have performed a regional, seven-year long and homogeneous analysis, comprising 136 GNSS tracking stations, obtaining high-rate and continuous observations of column integrated water vapour and troposphere zenith total delay (Bianchi et al. 2016). As preliminary application for this data set, we have estimated local water vapour trends, their significance, and their relation with specific climate regimes. We have found evidence of drying at temperate regions in South America, at a rate of about 2% per decade, while a slow moistening of the troposphere over tropical regions is also weakly suggested by our results. Furthermore, we have assessed the regional performance of the empirical model GPT2w to blindly estimate troposphere delays. The model fairly reproduces the observed mean delays, including their annual and semi-annual variations. Nevertheless, a long-term evaluation has shown systematical biases, up to 20 mm, probably inherited form the underling atmospheric reanalysis. Additionally, the complete data set has been made openly available at a scientific repository (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.858234). References: C. Bianchi, L. Mendoza, L. Fernandez, M. P. Natali, A. Meza, J. F. Moirano, Multi-year GNSS monitoring of atmospheric IWV over Central and South America for climate studies, Ann. Geophys., ISSN 0992-7689, eISSN 1432-0576, 34 (7), 623-639 (doi:10.5194/angeo-34-623-2016).

From pole to pole: 33 years of physical oceanography onboard R/V Polarstern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Driemel, Amelie; Fahrbach, Eberhard; Rohardt, Gerd; Beszczynska-Möller, Agnieszka; Boetius, Antje; Budéus, Gereon; Cisewski, Boris; Engbrodt, Ralph; Gauger, Steffen; Geibert, Walter; Geprägs, Patrizia; Gerdes, Dieter; Gersonde, Rainer; Gordon, Arnold L.; Grobe, Hannes; Hellmer, Hartmut H.; Isla, Enrique; Jacobs, Stanley S.; Janout, Markus; Jokat, Wilfried; Klages, Michael; Kuhn, Gerhard; Meincke, Jens; Ober, Sven; Østerhus, Svein; Peterson, Ray G.; Rabe, Benjamin; Rudels, Bert; Schauer, Ursula; Schröder, Michael; Schumacher, Stefanie; Sieger, Rainer; Sildam, Jüri; Soltwedel, Thomas; Stangeew, Elena; Stein, Manfred; Strass, Volker H.; Thiede, Jörn; Tippenhauer, Sandra; Veth, Cornelis; von Appen, Wilken-Jon; Weirig, Marie-France; Wisotzki, Andreas; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter A.; Kanzow, Torsten

2017-03-01

Measuring temperature and salinity profiles in the world's oceans is crucial to understanding ocean dynamics and its influence on the heat budget, the water cycle, the marine environment and on our climate. Since 1983 the German research vessel and icebreaker Polarstern has been the platform of numerous CTD (conductivity, temperature, depth instrument) deployments in the Arctic and the Antarctic. We report on a unique data collection spanning 33 years of polar CTD data. In total 131 data sets (1 data set per cruise leg) containing data from 10 063 CTD casts are now freely available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.860066. During this long period five CTD types with different characteristics and accuracies have been used. Therefore the instruments and processing procedures (sensor calibration, data validation, etc.) are described in detail. This compilation is special not only with regard to the quantity but also the quality of the data - the latter indicated for each data set using defined quality codes. The complete data collection includes a number of repeated sections for which the quality code can be used to investigate and evaluate long-term changes. Beginning with 2010, the salinity measurements presented here are of the highest quality possible in this field owing to the introduction of the OPTIMARE Precision Salinometer.

European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodó, X.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J. M.; Herrmann, F. R.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (sensu IPCC) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe. More information in Ballester J, et al. (2016) Nature Climate Change 6, 927-930, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3070.

A framework for using connectivity to measure and model water and sediment fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keessta, Saskia; Saco, Patricia; Nunes, Joao; Parsons, Tony; Poeppl, Ronny; Pereira, Paulo; Novara, Agata; Rodrigo Comino, Jesús; Jordán, Antonio; Masselink, Rens; Cerdà, Artemi

2017-04-01

For many years, scientists have tried to understand, describe and quantify water and sediment fluxes at multiple scales (Cerdà et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2015; Poeppl et al., 2016; Masselink et al., 2016a; Rodrigo Comino et al., 2016). In the past two decades, a new concept called connectivity has been used by Earth Scientists as a means to describe and quantify the influences on the fluxes of water and sediment on different scales: aggregate, pedon, location on the slope, slope, watershed, and basin (Baartman et al., 2013; Parsons et al., 2015; López-Vicente et al., 2015; 2016; Masselink 2016b; Marchamalo et al., 2016; Mekonnen et al., 2016). A better understanding of connectivity can enhance our comprehension of landscape processes and provide a basis for the development of better measurement and modelling approaches, further leading to a better potential for implementing this concept as a management tool. Our research provides a short review of the State-of-the-Art of the connectivity concept, from which we conclude that scientists have been struggling to find a way to quantify connectivity so far. We adapt the knowledge of connectivity to better understand and quantify water and sediment transfers in catchment systems. First, we introduce a new approach to the concept of connectivity to study water and sediment transfers. In this approach water and sediment dynamics are divided in two parts: the system consists of phases and fluxes, each being separately measurable. This approach enables us to: i) better conceptualize our understanding of system dynamics at different timescales, including long timescales; ii) identify the main parameters driving system dynamics, and devise monitoring strategies which capture them; and, iii) build models with a holistic approach to simulate system dynamics without excessive complexity. Secondly, we discuss the role of system boundaries in designing measurement schemes and models. Natural systems have boundaries within which sediment connectivity varies between phases; in (semi-)arid regions these boundaries can be far apart in time due to extreme events. External disturbances (eg. climate change, changed land management) can change these boundaries. It is therefore important to consider the system state as a whole, including its boundaries and internal dynamics, when designing and implementing comprehensive monitoring and modelling approaches. Keywords: Connectivity, catchment systems, measuring and modelling approaches, co-evolution, management, boundary conditions, fire effects. Acknowledgements This research received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n_ 603498 (RECARE project) and the CGL2013- 47862-C2-1-R and CGL2016-75178-C2-2-R national research projects. References Baartman, J.E.M., Masselink, R.H., Keesstra, S.D., Temme, A.J.A.M., 2013. Linking landscape morphological complexity and sediment connectivity. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 38: 1457-1471. Cerdà A, Brazier R, Nearing M, de Vente J. 2013. Scales and erosion. CATENA 102: 1-2. DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2011.09.006 López-Vicente, M., E. Nadal-Romero, and E. L. H. Cammeraat. 2016. Hydrological Connectivity does Change Over 70 Years of Abandonment and Afforestation in the Spanish Pyrenees. Land Degradation and Development. doi:10.1002/ldr.2531. López-Vicente, M., L. Quijano, L. Palazón, L. Gaspar, and A. Navas. 2015. Assessment of Soil Redistribution at Catchment Scale by Coupling a Soil Erosion Model and a Sediment Connectivity Index (Central Spanish Pre-Pyrenees). Cuadernos De Investigacion Geografica 41 (1): 127-147. doi:10.18172/cig.2649. Marchamalo, M., J. M. Hooke, and P. J. Sandercock. 2016. Flow and Sediment Connectivity in Semi-Arid Landscapes in SE Spain: Patterns and Controls. Land Degradation and Development 27 (4): 1032-1044. doi:10.1002/ldr.2352. Masselink RJH, Heckmann T, Temme AJAM, Anders NS, Gooren HPA, Keesstra SD. 2016a. A network theory approach for a better understanding of overland flow connectivity. Hydrological Processes. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.10993 Masselink, R. J. H., S. D. Keesstra, A. J. A. M. Temme, M. Seeger, R. Giménez, and J. Casalí. 2016b. Modelling Discharge and Sediment Yield at Catchment Scale using Connectivity Components. Land Degradation and Development 27 (4): 933-945. doi:10.1002/ldr.2512. Mekonnen, M., Keesstra, S.D., Baartman, J.E.M., Stroosnijder, L., Maroulis, J., Reducing sediment connectivity through man-made and natural sediment sinks in the Minizr catchment, north-west Ethiopia. Accepted to Land Degradation and Development. Parsons A.J., Bracken L., Peoppl , R., Wainwright J., Keesstra, S.D., 2015. Editorial: Introduction to special issue on connectivity in water and sediment dynamics. In press in Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. DOI: 10.1002/esp.3714 Parsons A.J., Bracken L., Peoppl , R., Wainwright J., Keesstra, S.D., 2015. Editorial: Introduction to special issue on connectivity in water and sediment dynamics. In press in Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. DOI: 10.1002/esp.3714 Poeppl, R.,E. Maroulis, J., Keesstra, S.D., 2016. Geomorphology. A conceptual connectivity framework for understanding geomorphic change in human-impacted fluvial systems. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.07.033 Rodrigo Comino, J., Iserloh, T., Lassu, T., Cerdà, A., Keesstra, S.D., Prosdocimi, M., Brings, C., Marzen, M., Ramos, M.C., Senciales, J.M., Ruiz Sinoga, J.D., Seeger, M., Ries, J.B., 2016. Quantitative comparison of initial soil erosion processes and runoff generation in Spanish and German vineyards. Science of the Total Environment. In press DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.05.163

Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucarini, Valerio

2017-04-01

We review the skill of thirty coupled climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in terms of reproducing properties of the seasonal cycle of precipitation over the major river basins of South and Southeast Asia (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong) for the historical period (1961-2000). We also present how these models represent the impact of climate change by the end of century (2061-2100) under the extreme scenario RCP8.5. First, we assess the models' ability to reproduce the observed timings of the monsoon onset and the rate of rapid fractional accumulation (RFA) slope — a measure of seasonality within the active monsoon period. Secondly, we apply a threshold-independent seasonality index (SI) — a multiplicative measure of precipitation (P) and extent of its concentration relative to uniform distribution (relative entropy — RE). We apply SI distinctly over the monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR), westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. For the present climate, neither any single model nor the multi-model mean performs best in all chosen metrics. Models show overall a modest skill in suggesting right timings of the monsoon onset while the RFA slope is generally underestimated. One third of the models fail to capture the monsoon signal over the Indus basin. Mostly, the estimates for SI during WPR are higher than observed for all basins. When looking at MPR, the models typically simulate an SI higher (lower) than observed for the Ganges and Brahmaputra (Indus and Mekong) basins, following the pattern of overestimation (underestimation) of precipitation. Most of the models are biased negative (positive) for RE estimates over the Brahmaputra and Mekong (Indus and Ganges) basins, implying the extent of precipitation concentration for MPR and number of dry days within WPR lower (higher) than observed for these basins. Such skill of the CMIP5 models in representing the present-day monsoonal hydroclimatology poses some caveats on their ability to represent correctly the climate change signal. Nevertheless, considering the majority-model agreement as a measure of robustness for the qualitative scale projected future changes, we find a slightly delayed onset, and a general increase in the RFA slope and in the extent of precipitation concentration (RE) for MPR. Overall, a modest inter-model agreement suggests an increase in the seasonality of MPR and a less intermittent WPR for all basins and for most of the study domain. The SI-based indicator of change in the monsoonal domain suggests its extension westward over northwest India and Pakistan and northward over China. These findings have serious implications for the food and water security of the region in the future. Reference Ul Hasson, S., Pascale, S., Lucarini, V., & Böhner, J. (2016). Seasonal cycle of precipitation over major river basins in South and Southeast Asia: A review of the CMIP5 climate models data for present climate and future climate projections. Atmospheric Research, 180, 42-63. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.05.008

"Doi Moi" (Renovation) and Higher Education Reform in Vietnam

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thanh, Pham Thi Hong

2011-01-01

Vietnam has experienced significant social, economic, political, and educational changes during the last two decades since the "Doi Moi" policy was implemented. To respond to new requirements required by the global economy, Vietnamese education has undergone remarkable reforms. This article critically examines these reforms in three…

Vista-LA: Mapping methane-emitting infrastructure in the Los Angeles megacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carranza, Valerie; Rafiq, Talha; Frausto-Vicencio, Isis; Hopkins, Francesca M.; Verhulst, Kristal R.; Rao, Preeti; Duren, Riley M.; Miller, Charles E.

2018-03-01

Methane (CH4) is a potent greenhouse gas (GHG) and a critical target of climate mitigation efforts. However, actionable emission reduction efforts are complicated by large uncertainties in the methane budget on relevant scales. Here, we present Vista, a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based approach to map potential methane emissions sources in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) that encompasses Los Angeles, an area with a dense, complex mixture of methane sources. The goal of this work is to provide a database that, together with atmospheric observations, improves methane emissions estimates in urban areas with complex infrastructure. We aggregated methane source location information into three sectors (energy, agriculture, and waste) following the frameworks used by the State of California GHG Inventory and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Guidelines for GHG Reporting. Geospatial modeling was applied to publicly available datasets to precisely geolocate facilities and infrastructure comprising major anthropogenic methane source sectors. The final database, Vista-Los Angeles (Vista-LA), is presented as maps of infrastructure known or expected to emit CH4. Vista-LA contains over 33 000 features concentrated on < 1 % of land area in the region. Currently, Vista-LA is used as a planning and analysis tool for atmospheric measurement surveys of methane sources, particularly for airborne remote sensing, and methane hotspot detection using regional observations. This study represents a first step towards developing an accurate, spatially resolved methane flux estimate for point sources in SoCAB, with the potential to address discrepancies between bottom-up and top-down methane emissions accounting in this region. The Vista-LA datasets and associated metadata are available from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Distributed Active Archive Center for Biogeochemical Dynamics (ORNL DAAC; https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1525).

Observing the coach-created motivational environment across training and competition in youth sport.

PubMed

Smith, Nathan; Quested, Eleanor; Appleton, Paul R; Duda, Joan L

2017-01-01

Adopting an integrated achievement goal (Nicholls, J. G. (1989). The competitive ethos and democratic education. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.) and self-determination theory (Deci, E. L., & Ryan, R. M. (2000). The "what" and "why" of goal pursuits: Human needs and the self-determination of behavior. Psychological Inquiry, 11, 227-268. doi:10.1207/S15327965PLI1104_01) perspective as proffered by Duda, J. L. (2013). (The conceptual and empirical foundations of empowering coaching TM : Setting the stage for the PAPA project. International Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 11, 311-318. doi:10.1080/1612197X.2013.839414), the aim of the current study was to observe empowering and disempowering features of the multidimensional motivational coaching environment in training and competition in youth sport. Seventeen grass-roots soccer coaches were observed and rated in training and competitive settings using the multidimensional motivational climate observation system (MMCOS; Smith, N., Tessier, D., Tzioumakis, Y., Quested, E., Appleton, P., Sarrazin, P., … Duda, J. L. (2015). Development and validation of the multidimensional motivational climate observation system (MMCOS). Journal of Sport and Exercise Psychology, 37, 4-22. doi:10.1123/jsep.2014-0059). In line with our hypotheses, coaches created different motivational environments in the two contexts. More specifically, coaches were observed to create a less empowering and more disempowering environment in competition compared to in training. The observed differences were underpinned by distinctive motivational strategies used by coaches in the two contexts. Findings have implications for the assessment of the coach-created motivational environment and the promotion of quality motivation for young athletes taking part in grass-roots-level sport.

An assessment of wind energy potential in Iberia under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Santos, João A.; Rochinha, Carlos; Reyers, Mark; Pinto, Joaquim G.

2015-04-01

Wind energy potential in Iberia is assessed for recent-past (1961-2000) and future (2041-2070) climates. For recent-past, a COSMO-CLM simulation driven by ERA-40 is used. COSMO-CLM simulations driven by ECHAM5 following the A1B scenario are used for future projections. A 2 MW rated power wind turbine is selected. Mean potentials, inter-annual variability and irregularity are discussed on annual/seasonal scales and on a grid resolution of 20 km. For detailed regional assessments eight target sites are considered. For recent-past conditions, the highest daily mean potentials are found in winter over northern and eastern Iberia, particularly on high-elevation or coastal regions. In northwestern Iberia, daily potentials frequently reach maximum wind energy output (50 MWh day-1), particularly in winter. Southern Andalucía reveals high potentials throughout the year, whereas the Ebro valley and central-western coast show high potentials in summer. The irregularity in annual potentials is moderate (<15% of mean output), but exacerbated in winter (40%). Climate change projections show significant decreases over most of Iberia (<2 MWh day-1). The strong enhancement of autumn potentials in Southern Andalucía is noteworthy (>2 MWh day-1). The northward displacement of North Atlantic westerly winds (autumn-spring) and the strengthening of easterly flows (summer) are key drivers of future projections. Santos, J.A.; Rochinha, C.; Liberato, M.L.R.; Reyers, M.; Pinto, J.G. (2015) Projected changes in wind energy potentials over Iberia. Renewable Energy, 75, 1: 68-80. doi: 10.1016/j.renene.2014.09.026 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Variability in Temperature-Related Mortality Projections under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Sottile, Marie-France; Plante, Céline; Brand, Allan; Casati, Barbara; Fournier, Michel

2014-01-01

Background: Most studies that have assessed impacts on mortality of future temperature increases have relied on a small number of simulations and have not addressed the variability and sources of uncertainty in their mortality projections. Objectives: We assessed the variability of temperature projections and dependent future mortality distributions, using a large panel of temperature simulations based on different climate models and emission scenarios. Methods: We used historical data from 1990 through 2007 for Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and Poisson regression models to estimate relative risks (RR) for daily nonaccidental mortality in association with three different daily temperature metrics (mean, minimum, and maximum temperature) during June through August. To estimate future numbers of deaths attributable to ambient temperatures and the uncertainty of the estimates, we used 32 different simulations of daily temperatures for June–August 2020–2037 derived from three global climate models (GCMs) and a Canadian regional climate model with three sets of RRs (one based on the observed historical data, and two on bootstrap samples that generated the 95% CI of the attributable number (AN) of deaths). We then used analysis of covariance to evaluate the influence of the simulation, the projected year, and the sets of RRs used to derive the attributable numbers of deaths. Results: We found that < 1% of the variability in the distributions of simulated temperature for June–August of 2020–2037 was explained by differences among the simulations. Estimated ANs for 2020–2037 ranged from 34 to 174 per summer (i.e., June–August). Most of the variability in mortality projections (38%) was related to the temperature–mortality RR used to estimate the ANs. Conclusions: The choice of the RR estimate for the association between temperature and mortality may be important to reduce uncertainty in mortality projections. Citation: Benmarhnia T, Sottile MF, Plante C, Brand A, Casati B, Fournier M, Smargiassi A. 2014. Variability in temperature-related mortality projections under climate change. Environ Health Perspect 122:1293–1298; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1306954 PMID:25036003

Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caillouet, Laurie; Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Sauquet, Eric; Graff, Benjamin

2015-04-01

This work proposes a daily high-resolution probabilistic reconstruction of precipitation and temperature fields in France over the last century built on the NOAA 20th century global extended atmospheric reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al., 2011). It aims at delivering appropriate meteorological forcings for continuous distributed hydrological modelling over the last 140 years. The longer term objective is to improve our knowledge of major historical hydrometeorological events having occurred outside of the last 50-year period, over which comprehensive reconstructions and observations are available. It would constitute a perfect framework for assessing the recent observed events but also future events projected by climate change impact studies. The Sandhy (Stepwise ANalogue Downscaling method for Hydrology) statistical downscaling method (Radanovics et al., 2013), initially developed for quantitative precipitation forecast, is used here to bridge the scale gap between 20CR predictors - temperature, geopotential shape, vertical velocity and relative humidity - and local predictands - precipitation and temperature - relevant for catchment-scale hydrology. Multiple predictor domains for geopotential shape are retained from a local optimisation over France using the Safran near-surface reanalysis (Vidal et al., 2010). Sandhy gives an ensemble of 125 equally plausible gridded precipitation and temperature time series over the whole 1871-2012 period. Previous studies showed that Sandhy precipitation outputs are very slightly biased at the annual time scale. Nevertheless, the seasonal precipitation signal for areas with a high interannual variability is not well simulated. Moreover, winter and summer temperatures are respectively over- and underestimated. Reliable seasonal precipitation and temperature signals are however necessary for hydrological modelling, especially for evapotranspiration and snow accumulation/snowmelt processes. Two different post-processing methods are considered to correct monthly precipitation and temperature time series. The first one applies two new analogy steps, using the sea surface temperature (SST) and the large-scale two-meter temperature. The second method is a calendar selection that keeps the closest analogue dates in the year for each target date. A sensitivity study has been performed to assess the final number of analogues dates to retain for each method. A comparison to Safran over 1958-2010 shows that biases on the interannual cycle of precipitation and temperature are strongly reduced with both methods. Using two supplementary analogy levels moreover leads to a large improvement of correlation in seasonal temperature time series. These two methods have also been validated before 1958 thanks to both raw observations and homogenized time series. The two post-processing methods come with some advantages and drawbacks. The calendar selection allows to slightly better correct for seasonal biases in precipitation and is therefore adapted in a forecasting context. The selection with two supplementary analogy levels would allow for possible season shifts and SST trends and is therefore better suited for climate reconstruction and climate change studies. Compo, G. P. et al. (2011). The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137:1-28. doi: 10.1002/qj.776 Radanovics, S., Vidal, J.-P., Sauquet, E., Ben Daoud, A., and Bontron, G. (2013). Optimising predictor domains for spatially coherent precipitation downscaling. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17:4189-4208. doi:10.5194/hess-17-4189-2013 Vidal, J.-P ., Martin, E., Franchistéguy, L., Baillon, M., and Soubeyroux, J.-M. (2010). A 50-year high-resolution atmospheric reanalysis over France with the Safran system. International Journal of Climatology, 30:1627-1644. doi:10.1002/joc.2003

A compilation of global bio-optical in situ data for ocean-colour satellite applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valente, André; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Brotas, Vanda; Groom, Steve; Grant, Michael; Taberner, Malcolm; Antoine, David; Arnone, Robert; Balch, William M.; Barker, Kathryn; Barlow, Ray; Bélanger, Simon; Berthon, Jean-François; Beşiktepe, Şükrü; Brando, Vittorio; Canuti, Elisabetta; Chavez, Francisco; Claustre, Hervé; Crout, Richard; Frouin, Robert; García-Soto, Carlos; Gibb, Stuart W.; Gould, Richard; Hooker, Stanford; Kahru, Mati; Klein, Holger; Kratzer, Susanne; Loisel, Hubert; McKee, David; Mitchell, Brian G.; Moisan, Tiffany; Muller-Karger, Frank; O'Dowd, Leonie; Ondrusek, Michael; Poulton, Alex J.; Repecaud, Michel; Smyth, Timothy; Sosik, Heidi M.; Twardowski, Michael; Voss, Kenneth; Werdell, Jeremy; Wernand, Marcel; Zibordi, Giuseppe

2016-06-01

A compiled set of in situ data is important to evaluate the quality of ocean-colour satellite-data records. Here we describe the data compiled for the validation of the ocean-colour products from the ESA Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative (OC-CCI). The data were acquired from several sources (MOBY, BOUSSOLE, AERONET-OC, SeaBASS, NOMAD, MERMAID, AMT, ICES, HOT, GeP&CO), span between 1997 and 2012, and have a global distribution. Observations of the following variables were compiled: spectral remote-sensing reflectances, concentrations of chlorophyll a, spectral inherent optical properties and spectral diffuse attenuation coefficients. The data were from multi-project archives acquired via the open internet services or from individual projects, acquired directly from data providers. Methodologies were implemented for homogenisation, quality control and merging of all data. No changes were made to the original data, other than averaging of observations that were close in time and space, elimination of some points after quality control and conversion to a standard format. The final result is a merged table designed for validation of satellite-derived ocean-colour products and available in text format. Metadata of each in situ measurement (original source, cruise or experiment, principal investigator) were preserved throughout the work and made available in the final table. Using all the data in a validation exercise increases the number of matchups and enhances the representativeness of different marine regimes. By making available the metadata, it is also possible to analyse each set of data separately. The compiled data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.854832 (Valente et al., 2015).

Formation of minor moraines in high-mountain environments independent of a primary climatic driver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyshnytzky, Cianna; Lukas, Sven

2016-04-01

Closely-spaced minor moraines allow observations of moraine formation and ice-marginal fluctuations on short timescales, helping to better understand glacier retreat and predict its geomorphological effects (e.g. Sharp, 1984; Boulton, 1986; Bradwell, 2004; Lukas, 2012). Some minor moraines can be classified as annual moraines given sufficient chronological control, which implies a seasonal climatic driver of minor ice-front fluctuations. This leads to annual moraines being utilised as very specific and short-term records of glacier fluctuations and climate change. However, such research is sparse in high-mountain settings (Hewitt, 1967; Ono, 1985; Beedle et al., 2009; Lukas, 2012). This study presents the detailed sedimentological results of minor moraines at two high-mountain settings in the Alps. Minor moraines at Schwarzensteinkees, Austria, formed as push moraines in two groups, separated by a flat area and sloping zone with scattered boulders and flutings. The existence of a former proglacial lake, evident from ground-penetrating radar surveys and geomorphological relationships, appears to have exerted the primary control on minor moraine formation. Minor moraines at Silvrettagletscher, Switzerland, exist primarily on reverse bedrock slopes. The presence of these bedrock slopes, and in some areas medial moraines emerging beyond the ice front, appear to exert the primary controls on minor moraine formation. These findings show that climate may only play a small role in minor moraine formation at these study sites, echoing similar findings from another glacier in the Alps (Lukas, 2012). These two glaciers and valleys are differentiated primarily by geometry, sedimentation, and mechanisms of minor moraine formation. Despite these crucial differences, valley geometry and pre-existing geomorphology play a large, if not dominant, role in minor moraine formation and are at odds with a primarily-climatic control of minor moraine formation in lowland settings. This compelling discrepancy requires further investigation. References Beedle, M.J., Menounos, B., Luckman, B.H., and Wheate, R., 2009, Annual push moraines as climate proxy: Geophysical Research Letters, v. 36, no. 20, p. L20501, doi: 10.1029/2009GL039533. Boulton, G.S., 1986, Push-moraines and glacier-contact fans in marine and terrestrial environments: Sedimentology, v. 33, p. 677-698. Bradwell, T., 2004, Annual Moraines and Summer Temperatures at Lambatungnajökull, Iceland: Arctice, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, v. 36, no. 4, p. 502-508. Hewitt, K., 1967, Ice-Front Deposition and the Seasonal Effect: A Himalayan Example: Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers, v. 42, p. 93-106. Lukas, S., 2012, Processes of annual moraine formation at a temperate alpine valley glacier: insights into glacier dynamics and climatic controls: Boreas, v. 41, no. 3, p. 463-480, doi: 10.1111/j.1502-3885.2011.00241.x. Ono, Y., 1985, Recent Fluctuations of the Yala (Dakpatsen) Glacier, Langtang Himal, Reconstructed From Annual Moraine Ridges: Zeitschrift für Gletscherkunde und Glazialgeologie, v. 21, p. 251-258. Sharp, M., 1984, Annual moraine ridges at Skálafellsjökull, south-east Iceland: Journal of Glaciology, v. 30, no. 104, p. 82-93.

Lake surface water temperatures of European Alpine lakes (1989-2013) based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) 1 km data set

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riffler, M.; Lieberherr, G.; Wunderle, S.

2015-02-01

Lake water temperature (LWT) is an important driver of lake ecosystems and it has been identified as an indicator of climate change. Consequently, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) lists LWT as an essential climate variable. Although for some European lakes long in situ time series of LWT do exist, many lakes are not observed or only on a non-regular basis making these observations insufficient for climate monitoring. Satellite data can provide the information needed. However, only few satellite sensors offer the possibility to analyse time series which cover 25 years or more. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is among these and has been flown as a heritage instrument for almost 35 years. It will be carried on for at least ten more years, offering a unique opportunity for satellite-based climate studies. Herein we present a satellite-based lake surface water temperature (LSWT) data set for European water bodies in or near the Alps based on the extensive AVHRR 1 km data record (1989-2013) of the Remote Sensing Research Group at the University of Bern. It has been compiled out of AVHRR/2 (NOAA-07, -09, -11, -14) and AVHRR/3 (NOAA-16, -17, -18, -19 and MetOp-A) data. The high accuracy needed for climate related studies requires careful pre-processing and consideration of the atmospheric state. The LSWT retrieval is based on a simulation-based scheme making use of the Radiative Transfer for TOVS (RTTOV) Version 10 together with ERA-interim reanalysis data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. The resulting LSWTs were extensively compared with in situ measurements from lakes with various sizes between 14 and 580 km2 and the resulting biases and RMSEs were found to be within the range of -0.5 to 0.6 K and 1.0 to 1.6 K, respectively. The upper limits of the reported errors could be rather attributed to uncertainties in the data comparison between in situ and satellite observations than inaccuracies of the satellite retrieval. An inter-comparison with the standard Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Land Surface Temperature product exhibits RMSEs and biases in the range of 0.6 to 0.9 and -0.5 to 0.2 K, respectively. The cross-platform consistency of the retrieval was found to be within ~ 0.3 K. For one lake, the satellite-derived trend was compared with the trend of in situ measurements and both were found to be similar. Thus, orbital drift is not causing artificial temperature trends in the data set. A comparison with LSWT derived through global sea surface temperature (SST) algorithms shows lower RMSEs and biases for the simulation-based approach. A running project will apply the developed method to retrieve LSWT for all of Europe to derive the climate signal of the last 30 years. The data are available at doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.831007.

Effects of land use change and management on SOC and soil quality in Mediterranean rangelands areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parras-Alcántara, Luis; Lozano-García, Beatriz; Requejo, Ana; Zornoza, Raúl

2017-04-01

INTRODUCTION Rangelands in the Iberian Peninsula occupy more than 90,000 km2. These rangelands were created from the former Mediterranean oak forests, mainly composed of holm oak and cork oak (Quercus ilex rotundifolia and Quercus suber), by clear-cutting shrubs, removing selected trees and cultivating. These man-made landscapes are called 'dehesas' in Spain and 'montados' in Portugal. Between 1955 and 1981, more than 5,000 km2 of dehesas was converted from pastureland to cultivated land. This process has been accelerated since 1986 owing to subsidies from the European Common Agricultural Policy (Parras-Alcántara et al., 2015a). The role that natural rangelands play in the global carbon cycle is extremely important, accounting for 10-30% of the world's total soil organic carbon (SOC), in addition, SOC concentration is closely related to soil quality and vegetation productivity (Brevik, 2012). Therefore, to study the land use and management changes is important, particularly in Mediterranean soils, as they are characterized by low organic carbon content, furthermore, the continuous use of ploughing for grain production is the principal cause of soil degradation. Therefore, land use decisions and management systems can increase or decrease SOC content and stock (Corral-Fernández et al., 2013; Parras-Alcántara et al., 2014, 2015a and 2015b; Parras-Alcántara and Lozano-García, 2014) MATERIAL AND METHODS A field study was conducted to determine the land use change (Mediterranean evergreen oak woodland to olive grove and cereal, all of them managed under conventional tillage and under conservationist practices) effects on SOC stocks and the soil quality (Stratification Ratio) in Los Pedroches valley, southern Spain. RESULTS Results for the present study indicate that management practices had little effect on SOC storage in dehesas. The stratification ratio was >2 both under conventional tillage and under organic farming, so, soils under dehesa had high quality. Nevertheless, in olive grove and cereal conservationist practices increased the SOC stocks. Therefore, conservationist practices contributed to a better soil quality and to increased carbon sequestration and, consequently, this management is an excellent alternative to conventional tillage. A change in land use from dehesa to olive grove or cereal under conservationist practices appeared to increase the SOC. When calculated for the total soil profile these differences were equivalent to 20-25 Mg ha-1 of SOC. This is potentially very important for many agricultural soils in the Mediterranean area which are characterized by low organic matter content. These differences in the SOC stock were not apparent when the change in land use occurred under conventional tillage; even in the land use change from dehesa to cereal the SOC stock was reduced. This suggests that management in addition to change in land use is an important consideration and particularly the degree of soil disturbance which should be minimized. REFERENCES Brevik, E.C., 2012. Soils and climate change: gas fluxes and soil processes. Soil Horizons 53(4). http://dx.doi.org/10.2136/sh12-04-0012 Corral-Fernández, R., Parras-Alcántara, L., Lozano-García, B. 2013. Stratification ratio of soil organic C, N and C:N in Mediterranean evergreen oak woodland with conventional and organic tillage. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 164, 252-259. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agee.2012.11.002 Parras-Alcántara, L., Díaz-Jaimes, L., Lozano-García, B., Fernández Rebollo, P., Moreno Elcure, F., Carbonero Muñoz, M.D., 2014. Organic farming has little effect on carbon stock in a Mediterranean dehesa (southern Spain). Catena 113, 9-17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2013.09.002 Parras-Alcántara, L., Lozano-García, B., 2014. Conventional tillage versus organic farming in relation to soil organic carbon stock in olive groves in Mediterranean rangelands (southern Spain). Solid Earth, 5, 299- 311. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/se-5-299-2014 Parras-Alcántara, L., Díaz-Jaimes, L., Lozano-García, B. 2015a. Management effects on soil organic carbon stock in Mediterranean open rangelands-treeless grasslands. Land Degradation & Development 26, 22-34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2269 Parras-Alcántara, L., Díaz-Jaimes, L., Lozano-García, B. 2015b. Organic farming affects C and N in soils under olive groves in Mediterranean areas. Land Degradation & Development 26, 800-806. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ldr.2231

Rapid fluvial aggradation in response to climate change in northwestern Argentina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wickert, Andrew; Schildgen, Taylor; Strecker, Manfred

2015-04-01

River channels near the edge of the northwestern Argentine Andes are rapidly aggrading at present, with preliminary estimates suggesting rates of ~20 cm yr-1. This mirrors cycles of extensive aggradation over the past 100,000 years that formed pronounced fill terraces along regional valley networks and record periods in which in which climate-driven sediment supply overcame uplift-driven river incision (Robinson et al, 2005). Here we use the new SedFlow model (Heimann et al., 2014) to help us understand the causes and spread of aggradation across these basins in the modern system, with the additional eventual goal to better interpret the geologic record. We provide field-derived grain-size distributions, field-measured and remotely-sensed channel widths and valley slopes, and a variety of possible sediment source locations and amounts as inputs to SedFlow, which routes sediment through the fluvial channel network to produce time-evolving predictions of aggradation and incision. We compare these predictions against changes in topography measured by IceSAT (Zwally et al., 2014) and field surveys. We initially test the system response to a series of isolated sediment inputs to observe interactions between tributary systems and the mainstem river. Recent observations indicate that debris-flow induced landslides are important contributors to aggradation in these rivers (Cencetti and Rivelli, 2011). These and other sediment production and transport processes are likely driven by variations in the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (Bookhagen and Strecker, 2009). Therefore, we then run SedFlow with sediment inputs distributed across the landscape based on locations where ENSO influences may trigger enhanced landsliding. These model experiments help us towards our end goal of providing a more quantitative basis to interpret field observations of landscape response to changing patterns of precipitation. References: Bookhagen, B. and Strecker, M.: Amazonia: Landscape and Species Evolution, in Amazonia, Landscape and Species Evolution: A Look into the Past, edited by C. Hoorn and F. P. Wesselingh, Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd., Oxford, UK., 2009. Cencetti, C. and Rivelli, F. R.: Landslides Dams Induced by Debris Flows in Quebrada Del Toro (Province of Salta, Argentina), in 5th International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation: Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment, pp. 645-650, Casa Editrice Università La Sapienza, Padua, Italy., 2011. Heimann, F. U. M., Rickenmann, D., Turowski, J. M. and Kirchner, J. W.: sedFlow - an efficient tool for simulating bedload transport, bed roughness, and longitudinal profile evolution in mountain streams, Earth Surf. Dyn. Discuss., 2(2), 733-772, doi:10.5194/esurfd-2-733-2014, 2014. Robinson, R. a. J., Spencer, J. Q. G., Strecker, M. R., Richter, a. and Alonso, R. N.: Luminescence dating of alluvial fans in intramontane basins of NW Argentina, Geol. Soc. London, Spec. Publ., 251(1), 153-168, doi:10.1144/GSL.SP.2005.251.01.11, 2005. Zwally, H., R. Schutz, C. Bentley, J. Bufton, T. Herring, J. Minster, J. Spinhirne, and R. Thomas. GLAS/ICESat L1B Global Elevation Data. Version 34. GLA06. Boulder, Colorado USA: NASA DAAC at the National Snow and Ice Data Center. http://dx.doi.org/10.5067/ICESAT/GLAS/DATA126. 2014.

a New Framework for Characterising Simulated Droughts for Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Rashid, M.; Johnson, F.

2017-12-01

Significant attention has been focussed on metrics for quantifying drought. Lesser attention has been given to the unsuitability of current metrics in quantifying drought in a changing climate due to the clear non-stationarity in potential and actual evapotranspiration well into the future (Asadi-Zarch et al, 2015). This talk presents a new basis for simulating drought designed specifically for use with climate model simulations. Given the known uncertainty of climate model rainfall simulations, along with their inability to represent low-frequency variability attributes, the approach here adopts a predictive model for drought using selected atmospheric indicators. This model is based on a wavelet decomposition of relevant atmospheric predictors to filter out less relevant frequencies and formulate a better characterisation of the drought metric chosen as response. Once ascertained using observed precipication and associated atmospheric variables, these can be formulated from GCM simulations using a multivariate bias correction tool (Mehrotra and Sharma, 2016) that accounts for low-frequency variability, and a regression tool that accounts for nonlinear dependence (Sharma and Mehrotra, 2014). Use of only the relevant frequencies, as well as the corrected representation of cross-variable dependence, allows greater accuracy in characterising observed drought, from GCM simulations. Using simulations from a range of GCMs across Australia, we show here that this new method offers considerable advantages in representing drought compared to traditionally followed alternatives that rely on modelled rainfall instead. Reference:Asadi Zarch, M. A., B. Sivakumar, and A. Sharma (2015), Droughts in a warming climate: A global assessment of Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Reconnaissance drought index (RDI), Journal of Hydrology, 526, 183-195. Mehrotra, R., and A. Sharma (2016), A Multivariate Quantile-Matching Bias Correction Approach with Auto- and Cross-Dependence across Multiple Time Scales: Implications for Downscaling, Journal of Climate, 29(10), 3519-3539. Sharma, A., and R. Mehrotra (2014), An information theoretic alternative to model a natural system using observational information alone, Water Resources Research, 50, 650-660, doi:10.1002/2013WR013845.

Project VALOR: Trajectories of Change in PTSD in Combat-Exposed Veterans

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

11. Journal Of Abnormal Psychology , 126(3), 355- 366. doi:10.1037/abn0000252 PRESENTATIONS Black, S.K., Harwell, A.M., Klein, A.B., Bovin, M.J...of combat-Related PTSD: A replication and extension using the psy- 5 scales. Journal of Abnormal Psychology , 113, 636–645. doi:10.1037/0021-843X...sample of U.S. OEF/OIF veterans. Journal of Abnormal Psychology , 120, 797– 806. http://dx .doi.org/10.1037/a0023452 Weathers, F. W., Litz, B. T., Keane, T

North Atlantic early 20th century warming and impact on European summer: Mechanisms and Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

During the last century, substantial climate variations in the North Atlantic have occurred, such as the warmings in the 1920s and 1990s. Such variations are considered to be part of the variability known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Variations (AMV) and have a strong impact on local climates such as European summers. Here a synthesis of previous works is presented which describe the occurrence of the warming in the 1920s in the North Atlantic and its impact on the European summer climate (Müller et al. 2014, 2015). For this the 20th century reanalysis (20CR) and 20CR forced ocean experiments are evaluated. It can be shown that the North Atlantic Current and Sub-Polar Gyre are strengthened as a result of an increased pressure gradient over the North Atlantic. Concurrently, Labrador Sea convection and Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) increase. The intensified NAC, SPG, and AMOC redistribute sub-tropical water into the North Atlantic and Nordic Seas, thereby increasing observed and modelled temperature and salinity during the 1920s. Further a mechanism is proposed by which North Atlantic heat fluxes associated with the AMV modulate European decadal summer climate (Ghosh et al. 2016). By using 20CR, it can be shown that multi-decadal variations in the European summer temperature are associated to a linear baroclinic atmospheric response to the AMV-related surface heat flux. This response induce a sea level pressure structure modulating meridional temperature advection over north-western Europe and Blocking statistics over central Europe. This structure is shown to be the leading mode of variability and is independent of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation. Ghosh, R., W.A. Müller, J. Bader, and J. Baehr, 2016: Impact of observed North Atlantic multidecadal variations to European summer climate: A linear baroclinic response to surface heating. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.10007/s00382-016-3283-4 Müller W. A., D. Matei, M. Bersch, J. H. Jungclaus, H. Haak, K. Lohmann,G. P. Compo, and J. Marotzke, 2015: A 20th-century reanalysis forced ocean model to reconstruct North Atlantic climate variation during the 1920s, Climate Dynamics. doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2267-5 Müller, W. A., H. Pohlmann, F. Sienz, and D. Smith, 2014: Decadal climate prediction for the period 1901-2010 with a coupled climate model. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, pp 2100-2107.

Research Spotlight: Corals expanding poleward due to warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tretkoff, Ernie

2011-04-01

Corals are important organisms for ecosystems and are sensitive indicators of the effects of climate warming. While corals are bleaching and dying in tropical areas due to climate warming, a new study shows that in temperate areas they are expanding their range poleward as water temperatures increase. Yamano et al. used 80 years of records to study the range of corals around Japan. Sea surface temperatures have risen in these temperate areas during that time. They found that four of the nine species of coral they studied expanded their range northward since the 1930s, while none had its range shrink southward. The corals expanded northward as quickly as 14 kilometers per year. The study suggests that rapid modifications of temperate coastal ecosystems could be taking place. (Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2010GL046474, 2011)

Using WRF-Chem to investigate the impact of night time nitrate radical chemistry and N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry on the chemical composition of the UK troposphere.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archer-Nicholls, S.; Lowe, D.; Utembe, S.; McFiggans, G.

2012-04-01

It is believed that NO3 is the primary oxidant at night time, significantly impacting ozone formation, rain acidification and the formation and transformation of aerosols, particularly through the formation of the ammonium nitrate particulate (Allan et. al., 2000). However, many of the basic chemical processes controlling the formation and removal of NO3, in particular, the N2O5 heterogeneous reactions, are often not represented in models, although general parameterisations have been developed (c.f. Bertram & Thornton, 2009). The ROle of Night time chemistry in controlling the Oxidising Capacity of the atmOsphere (RONOCO) campaign is a project being funded by NERC and being carried out by a collaboration of UK Universities. It aims to better understand the role of the NO3 radical on the chemistry of the night time atmosphere, its oxidation capacity and thus its overall effects on the composition of the troposphere. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) is a state of the art regional climate model with fully coupled online air quality and meteorological components allowing for better resolution of aerosol and gas-phase chemistry (Grell et. al., 2005). It has been extended to include the Common Representative Intermediates scheme (CRIv2-R5) (Watson et. al., 2008), a reduced chemical scheme designed to simulate the atmospheric degradation of 220 species of hydrocarbons and VOCs. The MOSAIC aerosol scheme (Zaveri et. al., 2008), has been extended to include a reduced complexity condensed organic phase consisting of 13 semi-volatile and 2 involatile species (Topping et. al., 2012), as well as the N2O5 heterogeneous reaction scheme of Bertram & Thornton (2009). We aim to use WRF-Chem to compare the oxidation capacity of nighttime NO3 chemistry with that of daytime OH chemistry. The model was run using two nested grids: a 15km resolution domain over western Europe, containing a 5km resolution domain over the UK. The RONOCO campaign consisted of two flight periods: one during July 2010; the other during January 2011. We have run five model scenarios for both these periods: a base case, with standard emissions and chemistry; two scenarios with standard chemistry, but with halved and doubled NOx transport emissions respectively; and two scenarios with standard emissions, but one without N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry, and the other with the Cl- reaction pathway disabled. We will present results from the application of WRF-Chem to model the regional chemical composition of the atmosphere about the UK. Sensitivities to changing emission profiles and the impact of N2O5 heterogeneous chemistry will be discussed. Preliminary comparisons between model results and aircraft data will be shown. The strengths and weaknesses of our modelling approach, in particular the gains and drawbacks of using a fully coupled online model for use in this campaign, will be highlighted. The wider impacts of the processes investigated on the regional climate and air quality will be further discussed. Allan, B., et. al. (2000); J. Geophys. Res., 105, doi: 10.1046/j.1365-2370.2000.00208. Bertram, T. H., Thornton, J. A. (2009); Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9, 8351-8363, doi: 10.5194/acp-9-8351-2009 Grell, G., et. al. (2005); Atmos. Environ., 39, 6957- 6975. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2005.04.027 Topping, D., Lowe, D. & McFiggans, G. (2012); Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 1-13. doi:10.5194/gmd-5-1-2012 Watson, L., et. al. (2008); Atmos. Environ., 42, 7196- 7204, doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.07.034 Zaveri, R. A., et. al. (2008); J. Geophys. Res., 113, doi:10.1029/2007JD008782

Altimetry, gravimetry, GPS and viscoelastic modeling data for the joint inversion for glacial isostatic adjustment in Antarctica (ESA STSE Project REGINA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasgen, Ingo; Martín-Español, Alba; Horvath, Alexander; Klemann, Volker; Petrie, Elizabeth J.; Wouters, Bert; Horwath, Martin; Pail, Roland; Bamber, Jonathan L.; Clarke, Peter J.; Konrad, Hannes; Wilson, Terry; Drinkwater, Mark R.

2018-03-01

The poorly known correction for the ongoing deformation of the solid Earth caused by glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is a major uncertainty in determining the mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet from measurements of satellite gravimetry and to a lesser extent satellite altimetry. In the past decade, much progress has been made in consistently modeling ice sheet and solid Earth interactions; however, forward-modeling solutions of GIA in Antarctica remain uncertain due to the sparsity of constraints on the ice sheet evolution, as well as the Earth's rheological properties. An alternative approach towards estimating GIA is the joint inversion of multiple satellite data - namely, satellite gravimetry, satellite altimetry and GPS, which reflect, with different sensitivities, trends in recent glacial changes and GIA. Crucial to the success of this approach is the accuracy of the space-geodetic data sets. Here, we present reprocessed rates of surface-ice elevation change (Envisat/Ice, Cloud,and land Elevation Satellite, ICESat; 2003-2009), gravity field change (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, GRACE; 2003-2009) and bedrock uplift (GPS; 1995-2013). The data analysis is complemented by the forward modeling of viscoelastic response functions to disc load forcing, allowing us to relate GIA-induced surface displacements with gravity changes for different rheological parameters of the solid Earth. The data and modeling results presented here are available in the PANGAEA database (https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.875745). The data sets are the input streams for the joint inversion estimate of present-day ice-mass change and GIA, focusing on Antarctica. However, the methods, code and data provided in this paper can be used to solve other problems, such as volume balances of the Antarctic ice sheet, or can be applied to other geographical regions in the case of the viscoelastic response functions. This paper presents the first of two contributions summarizing the work carried out within a European Space Agency funded study: Regional glacial isostatic adjustment and CryoSat elevation rate corrections in Antarctica (REGINA).

Flood regimes in a changing world: What do we know?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloeschl, G.

2015-12-01

There has been a surprisingly large number of major floods in the last years around the world which suggests that floods may have increased and will continue to increase in the next decades. However, the realism of such changes is still hotly discussed in the literature. In this presentation I will argue that a fresh look is needed at the flood change problem in terms of the causal factors including river training, land use changes and climate variability. Analysing spatial patterns of dynamic flood characteristics helps learn form the rich diversity of flood processes across the landscape. I will present a number of examples across Europe to illustrate the range of flood generation processes and the causal factors of changes in the flood regime. On the basis of these examples, I will demonstrate how comparative hydrology can assist in learning from the differences of flood characteristics between catchments both for present and future conditions. Focus on the interactions of the natural and human water system will be instrumental in making meaningful statements about future floods in a changing world. References Hall et al. (2014) Understanding Flood Regime Changes in Europe: A state of the art assessment. Hydrol. Earth Sys. Sc., 18, 2735-2772. Blöschl et al. (2015) Increasing river floods: fiction or reality? Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Water. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1079

Boron isotopes in brachiopods during the end-Permian mass extinction: constraints on pH evolution and seawater chemistry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jurikova, Hana; Gutjahr, Marcus; Liebetrau, Volker; Brand, Uwe; Posenato, Renato; Garbelli, Claudio; Angiolini, Lucia; Eisenhauer, Anton

2017-04-01

The global biogeochemical cycling of carbon is fundamental for life on Earth with the ocean playing a key role as the largest and dynamically evolving CO2 reservoir. The boron isotope composition (commonly expressed in δ11B) of marine calcium carbonate is considered to be one of the most reliable paleo-pH proxies, potentially enabling us to reconstruct past ocean pH changes and understand carbon cycle perturbations along Earth's geological record (e.g. Foster et al., 2008; Clarkson et al., 2015). Brachiopods present an advantageous and largely underutilised archive for Phanerozoic carbon cycle reconstructions considering their high abundance in the geological record and its origin dating back to the early Cambrian. Moreover, their shell made of low-magnesium calcite makes these marine calcifiers more resistant to post-depositional diagenetic alteration of primary chemical signals. We have investigated the δ11B using MC-ICP-MS (Neptune Plus) and B/Ca and other elemental ratios (Mg/Ca, Sr/Ca, Al/Ca, Li/Ca, Ba/Ca, Na/Ca and Fe/Ca) using ICP-MS-Quadrupole (Agilent 7500cx) from the same specimens in pristine brachiopod shells from two sections from northern Italy during the Late Permian. These sections cover the δ13C excursion in excess of ˜4 ‰ (Brand et al., 2012) and are associated with major climate and environmental perturbations that lead to the mass extinction event at the Permian-Triassic boundary. Particular emphasis will be placed on the implications of our new paleo-pH estimates on the seawater chemistry during the Late Permian. Brand, U., Posenato, R., Came, R., Affek, H., Angiolini, L., Azmy, K. and Farabegoli, E.: The end-Permian mass extinction: A rapid volcanic CO2 and CH4-climatic catastrophe, Chemical Geology 323, 121-144, doi:10.1016/j.chemgeo.2012.06.015, 2012. Clarkson, M.O., Kasemann, S.A., Wood, R.A., Lenton, T.M., Daines, S.J., Richoz, S., Ohnemueller, F., Meixner, A., Poulton, S.W. and Tipper, E.T.: Ocean acidification and the Permo-Triassic mass extinction. Science 348, 229-232, doi: 10.1126/science.aaa0193, 2015. Foster, G.L.: Seawater pH, pCO2 and [CO32-] variations in the Caribbean Sea over the last 130 kyr: A boron isotope and B/Ca study of planktic foraminifera. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 271, 254-266. doi:10.1016/j.epsl.2008.04.015, 2008.

Downscaling and hydrological uncertainties in 20th century hydrometeorological reconstructions over France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, Jean-Philippe; Caillouet, Laurie; Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Sauquet, Eric; Thirel, Guillaume; Graff, Benjamin

2017-04-01

The record length of streamflow observations is generally limited to the last 50 years, which is not enough to properly explore the natural hydrometeorological variability, a key to better understand the effects of anthropogenic climate change. This work proposes a comparison of different hydrometeorological reconstruction datasets over France built on the downscaling of the NOAA 20th century global extended reanalysis (20CR, Compo et al., 2011). It aims at assessing the uncertainties related to these reconstructions and improving our knowledge of the multi-decadal hydrometeorological variability over the 20th century. High-resolution daily meteorological reconstructions over the period 1871-2012 are obtained with two statistical downscaling methods based on the analogue approach: the deterministic ANALOG method (Dayon et al., 2015) and the probabilistic SCOPE method (Caillouet et al., 2016). These reconstructions are then used as forcings for the GR6J lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model and the SIM physically-based distributed hydrological model, in order to derive daily streamflow reconstructions over a set of around 70 reference near-natural catchments. Results show a large multi-decadal streamflow variability over the last 140 years, which is however relatively consistent over France. Empirical estimates of three types of uncertainty - structure of the downscaling method, small-scale internal variability, and hydrological model structure - show roughly equal contributions to the streamflow uncertainty at the annual time scale, with values as high as 20% of the interannual mean. Caillouet, L., Vidal, J.-P., Sauquet, E., and Graff, B.: Probabilistic precipitation and temperature downscaling of the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over France, Clim. Past, 12, 635-662, doi:10.5194/cp-12-635-2016, 2016. Compo, G. P., Whitaker, J. S., Sardeshmukh, P. D., Matsui, N., Allan, R. J., Yin, X., Gleason, B. E., Vose, R. S., Rutledge, G., Bessemoulin, P., Brönnimann, S., Brunet, M., Crouthamel, R. I., Grant, A. N., Groisman, P. Y., Jones, P. D., Kruk, M. C., Kruger, A. C., Marshall, G. J., Maugeri, M., Mok, H. Y., Nordli, Ø., Ross, T. F., Trigo, R. M., Wang, X. L., Woodruff, S. D., and Worley, S. J.: The Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 137, 1-28, doi:10.1002/qj.776, 2011. Dayon, G., Boé, J., and Martin, E.: Transferability in the future climate of a statistical downscaling method for precipitation in France, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 120, 1023-1043, doi: 10.1002/2014JD022236, 2015.

Thermosphere Extension of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-04

tropospheric ozone and related tracers: Description and evaluation of MOZART, version 2, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D24), 4784, doi:10.1029/2002JD002853. Immel, T... troposphere to the upper thermosphere and their variability on interannual, seasonal, and daily scales. These quantities are compared with observational and...gravity waves are excited by tropospheric processes. As their amplitudes grow exponen- tially with altitude, they will cause larger variability

The ESA GOME-Evolution "Climate" water vapor product: a homogenized time series of H2O columns from GOME, SCIAMACHY, and GOME-2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beirle, Steffen; Lampel, Johannes; Wang, Yang; Mies, Kornelia; Dörner, Steffen; Grossi, Margherita; Loyola, Diego; Dehn, Angelika; Danielczok, Anja; Schröder, Marc; Wagner, Thomas

2018-03-01

We present time series of the global distribution of water vapor columns over more than 2 decades based on measurements from the satellite instruments GOME, SCIAMACHY, and GOME-2 in the red spectral range. A particular focus is the consistency amongst the different sensors to avoid jumps from one instrument to another. This is reached by applying robust and simple retrieval settings consistently. Potentially systematic effects due to differences in ground pixel size are avoided by merging SCIAMACHY and GOME-2 observations to GOME spatial resolution, which also allows for a consistent treatment of cloud effects. In addition, the GOME-2 swath is reduced to that of GOME and SCIAMACHY to have consistent viewing geometries.Remaining systematic differences between the different sensors are investigated during overlap periods and are corrected for in the homogenized time series. The resulting Climate product v2.2 (https://doi.org/10.1594/WDCC/GOME-EVL_water_vapor_clim_v2.2) allows the study of the temporal evolution of water vapor over the last 20 years on a global scale.

The scale effect on soil erosion. A plot approach to understand connectivity on slopes under cultivation at variable plot sizes and under Mediterranean climatic conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerdà, Artemi; Bagarello, Vicenzo; Ferro, Vito; Iovino, Massimo; Borja, Manuel Estaban Lucas; Francisco Martínez Murillo, Juan; González Camarena, Rafael

2017-04-01

It is well known that soil erosion changes along time and seasons and attention was paid to this issue in the past (González Hidalgo et al., 2010; 2012). However, although the scientific community knows that soil erosion is also a time spatial scale-scale dependent process (Parsons et al., 1990; Cerdà et al., 2009; González Hidalgo et al., 2013; Sadeghi et al., 2015) very little is done on this topic. This is due to the fact that at different scales, different soil erosion mechanisms (splash, sheetflow, rill development) are active and their rates change with the scale of measurement (Wainwright et al., 2002; López-Vicente et al., 2015). This is making the research on soil erosion complex and difficult, and it is necessary to develop a conceptual framework but also measurements that will inform about the soil erosion behaviour. Connectivity is the key concept to understand how changes in the scale results in different rates of soil and water losses (Parsons et al., 1996; Parsons et al., 2015; Poeppl et al., 2016). Most of the research developed around the connectivity concept was applied in watershed or basin scales (Galdino et al., 2016; Martínez-Casasnovas et al., 2016; López Vicente et al., 2016; Marchamalo et al., 2015; Masselink et al., 2016), but very little is known about the connectivity issue at slope scale (Cerdà and Jurgensen, 2011). El Teularet (Eastern Iberian Peninsula) and Sparacia (Sicily) soil erosion experimental stations are being active for 15 years and data collected on different plots sizes can shed light into the effect of scale on runoff generation and soil losses at different scales and give information to understand how the transport of materials is determined by the connectivity between pedon to slope scale (Cerdà et al., 2014; Bagarello et al., 2015a; 2015b). The comparison of the results of the two research stations will shed light into the rates of soil erosion and mechanisms involved that act under different scales. Our research share information collected during the last 15 years in the Sparacia and El Teularet soil erosion experimental stations under the same management and research how the concept of connectivity can help us to have a better understanding of the soil erosion process, and the effect of scale. All the data will be treated to show the runoff and sediment eroded at different plot sizes to understand how the sediment is transported at event scale. The rainfall characteristics will be also analysed to understand the soil erosion processes at different scales. Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n 603498 (RECARE project) and the CGL2013- 47862-C2-1-R and CGL2016-75178-C2-2-R national research projects. References Bagarello, V., Ferro, V., Pampalone, V. 2015b. A new version of the USLE-MM for predicting bare plot soil loss at the Sparacia (South Italy) experimental site. Hydrological Processes, 29(19), 4210-4219. Bagarello, V., Ferro, V., Giordano, G., Mannocchi, F., Pampalone, V., Todisco, F. 2015a. A modified applicative criterion of the physical model concept for evaluating plot soil erosion predictions. Catena, 126, 53-58. Cerdà, A. and M. F. Jurgensen. 2011. Ant Mounds as a Source of Sediment on Citrus Orchard Plantations in Eastern Spain. A Three-Scale Rainfall Simulation Approach. Catena 85 (3): 231-236. doi:10.1016/j.catena.2011.01.008. Cerdà, A., Giménez-Morera, A., Jordan, A., Pereira, P., Novara, A., Keesstra, S., Sinoga, J. D. R. 2015. Shrubland as a soil and water conservation agent in Mediterranean-type ecosystems: The Sierra de Enguera study site contribution. Monitoring and Modelling Dynamic Environments, 45. Cerdà, A., R. Brazier, M. Nearing, and J. de Vente. 2013. Scales and Erosion. Catena 102: 1-2. doi:10.1016/j.catena.2011.09.006. Galdino, S., E. E. Sano, R. G. Andrade, C. R. Grego, S. F. Nogueira, C. Bragantini, and A. H. G. Flosi. 2016. Large-Scale Modeling of Soil Erosion with RUSLE for Conservationist Planning of Degraded Cultivated Brazilian Pastures. Land Degradation and Development 27 (3): 773-784. doi:10.1002/ldr.2414. Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J. C., R. J. Batalla, A. Cerdá, and M. de Luis. 2010. Contribution of the Largest Events to Suspended Sediment Transport Across the USA. Land Degradation and Development 21 (2): 83-91. doi:10.1002/ldr.897. Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J. C., R. J. Batalla, A. Cerdà, and M. de Luis. 2012. A Regional Analysis of the Effects of Largest Events on Soil Erosion. Catena 95: 85-90. doi:10.1016/j.catena.2012.03.006. Gonzalez-Hidalgo, J. C., R. J. Batalla, and A. Cerdà. 2013. Catchment Size and Contribution of the Largest Daily Events to Suspended Sediment Load on a Continental Scale. Catena 102: 40-45. doi:10.1016/j.catena.2010.10.011. López-Vicente, M., E. Nadal-Romero, and E. L. H. Cammeraat. 2016. Hydrological Connectivity does Change Over 70 Years of Abandonment and Afforestation in the Spanish Pyrenees. Land Degradation and Development. doi:10.1002/ldr.2531. López-Vicente, M., L. Quijano, L. Palazón, L. Gaspar, and A. Navas. 2015. Assessment of Soil Redistribution at Catchment Scale by Coupling a Soil Erosion Model and a Sediment Connectivity Index (Central Spanish Pre-Pyrenees). Cuadernos De Investigacion Geografica 41 (1): 127-147. doi:10.18172/cig.2649. Marchamalo, M., J. M. Hooke, and P. J. Sandercock. 2016. Flow and Sediment Connectivity in Semi-Arid Landscapes in SE Spain: Patterns and Controls. Land Degradation and Development 27 (4): 1032-1044. doi:10.1002/ldr.2352. Martínez-Casasnovas, J. A., M. C. Ramos, and G. Benites. 2016. Soil and Water Assessment Tool Soil Loss Simulation at the Sub-Basin Scale in the Alt Penedès-Anoia Vineyard Region (Ne Spain) in the 2000s. Land Degradation and Development 27 (2): 160-170. doi:10.1002/ldr.2240. Masselink, R.J.H., S.D. Keesstra, A J.A.M. Temme, M. Seeger, R. Giménez, J. Casalí. 2016. Modelling Discharge and Sediment Yield at Catchment Scale using Connectivity Components. Land Degradation and Development 27 (4): 933-945. doi:10.1002/ldr.2512. Parsons, A.J., Abrahams, A.D., Luk, S.H. 1990. Hydraulics of interrill overland flow on a semi-arid hillslope, southern Arizona. Journal of Hydrology, 117(1), 255-273. Parsons, A.J., Abrahams, A. D., Wainwright, J. 1996. Responses of interrill runoff and erosion rates to vegetation change in southern Arizona. Geomorphology, 14(4), 311-317. Parsons A.J., Bracken L., Peoppl , R., Wainwright J., Keesstra, S.D., 2015. Editorial: Introduction to special issue on connectivity in water and sediment dynamics. In press in Earth Surface Processes and Landforms. DOI: 10.1002/esp.3714 Poeppl, R.,E. Maroulis, J., Keesstra, S.D., 2016. Geomorphology. A conceptual connectivity framework for understanding geomorphic change in human-impacted fluvial systems. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.geomorph.2016.07.033 Sadeghi, S.H.R., Gholami, L., Sharifi, E., Khaledi Darvishan, A., Homaee, M. Scale effect on runoff and soil loss control using rice straw mulch under laboratory conditions. (2015) Solid Earth, 6 (1), pp. 1-8.. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/se-6-1-2015 Wainwright, J., Parsons, A.J., Schlesinger, W.H., Abrahams, A.D. 2002. Hydrology-vegetation interactions in areas of discontinuous flow on a semi-arid bajada, southern New Mexico. Journal of Arid Environments, 51(3), 319-338.

Novel assessment tools to evaluate clinical and laboratory responses in a subset of patients enrolled in the Rituximab in Myositis trial.

PubMed

Rider, Lisa G; Yip, Adrienne L; Horkayne-Szakaly, Iren; Volochayev, Rita; Shrader, Joseph A; Turner, Maria L; Kong, Heidi H; Jain, Minal S; Jansen, Anna V; Oddis, Chester V; Fleisher, Thomas A; Miller, Frederick W

2014-01-01

We aimed to assess changes in myositis core set measures and ancillary clinical and laboratory data from the National Institutes of Health's subset of patients enrolled in the Rituximab in Myositis trial. Eighteen patients (5 dermatomyositis, 8 polymyositis, 5 juvenile dermatomyositis) completed more in-depth testing of muscle strength and cutaneous assessments, patient-reported outcomes, and laboratory tests before and after administration of rituximab. Percentage change in individual measures and in the definitions of improvement (DOIs) and standardized response means were examined over 44 weeks. Core set activity measures improved by 18-70% from weeks 0-44 and were sensitive to change. Fifteen patients met the DOI at week 44, 9 patients met a DOI 50% response, and 4 met a DOI 70% response. Muscle strength and function measures were more sensitive to change than cutaneous assessments. Constitutional, gastrointestinal, and pulmonary systems improved 44-70%. Patient-reported outcomes improved up to 28%. CD20+ B cells were depleted in the periphery, but B cell depletion was not associated with clinical improvement at week 16. This subset of patients had high rates of clinical response to rituximab, similar to patients in the overall trial. Most measures were responsive, and muscle strength had a greater degree of change than cutaneous assessments. Several novel assessment tools, including measures of strength and function, extra-muscular organ activity, fatigue, and health-related quality of life, are promising for use in future myositis trials. Further study of B cell-depleting therapies in myositis, particularly in treatment-naïve patients, is warranted.

What can'(t) we do with global flood risk models?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, P.; Jongman, B.; Salamon, P.; Simpson, A.; Bates, P. D.; de Groeve, T.; Muis, S.; Coughlan, E.; Rudari, R.; Trigg, M. A.; Winsemius, H.

2015-12-01

Global flood risk models are now a reality. Initially, their development was driven by a demand from users for first-order global assessments to identify risk hotspots. Relentless upward trends in flood damage over the last decade have enhanced interest in such assessments. The adoption of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage Associated with Climate Change Impacts have made these efforts even more essential. As a result, global flood risk models are being used more and more in practice, by an increasingly large number of practitioners and decision-makers. However, they clearly have their limits compared to local models. To address these issues, a team of scientists and practitioners recently came together at the Global Flood Partnership meeting to critically assess the question 'What can('t) we do with global flood risk models?'. The results of this dialogue (Ward et al., 2013) will be presented, opening a discussion on similar broader initiatives at the science-policy interface in other natural hazards. In this contribution, examples are provided of successful applications of global flood risk models in practice (for example together with the World Bank, Red Cross, and UNISDR), and limitations and gaps between user 'wish-lists' and model capabilities are discussed. Finally, a research agenda is presented for addressing these limitations and reducing the gaps. Ward, P.J. et al., 2015. Nature Climate Change, doi:10.1038/nclimate2742.

Long-term changes in soil erosion due to forest fires. A rainfall simulation approach in Eastern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerdà, Artemi; Keesstra, Saskia; Pereira, Paulo; Matrix-Solera, Jorge; Giménez-Morera, Antonio; Úbeda, Xavier; Francos, Marcos; Alcañiz, Meritxell; Jordán, Antonio

2016-04-01

Soils are affected by the impacts of wildfires (Dlapa et al., 2013; Pereira et al., 2014; Tsibart et al., 2014; Dlapa et al., 2015, Hedo et al., 2015; Tessler et al., 2015). Soil erosion rates are highly affected by forest fires due to the removal of the above ground vegetation, the heat impact on the soil, the reduction of the organic matter, the ash cover, and the changes introduced by the rainfall on the soil surface (Lasanta and Cerdà, 2005; Mataix-Solera et al., 2011; Novara et al., 2011; Novara et al., 2013; Keesstra et al., 2014; Hedo et al., 2015; Pereira, 2015). Most of the research carried out on forest fire affected land paid attention to the "window of disturbance", which is the period that the soil losses are higher than before the forest fire and that last for few years (Cerdà, 1998a; Cerdà 1998b, Pérez-Cabello et al., 2011; Bodí et al., 2011; Bodí et al., 2012; Pereira et al., 2013: Pereira et al., 2015). However, the spatial and temporal variability of soil erosion is very high as a result of the uneven temporal and spatial distribution of the rainfall (Novara et al., 2011; Bisantino et al., 2015; Gessesse et al., 2015; Ochoa et al., 2015), and the window of disturbance cannot be easily found under natural rainfall. In order to understand the evolution of soil erosion after forest fires it is necessary to monitor fire affected sites over a long period of time, which will enable the assessment of the period affected by the window of disturbance (see Cerdà and Doerr, 2005). However, it is also possible to do measurements and experiments in areas with a different fire history. This will give us information about the temporal changes in soil erosion after forest fire. To reduce the spatial variability of rainfall we can use simulated rainfall that can be applied at multiple site with the same rainfall intensity and duration. For this purpose rainfall simulation can be of great help, in the laboratory (Moreno et al., 2014; Sadegui et al., 2015; Carvalho et al., 2015; Lassu et al., 2015) or in the field (Cerdà et al., 1998c; Jordán et al., 2009; Prosdocimi et al., 2016). In order to determine how fire and post-fire changes change soil erosion rates we selected 12 research sites at the study area of the Massís del Caroig, Eastern Spain, which suffered different fires in the last century. The parent material is limestone in all study sites and the mean annual rainfall ranges from 480 to 550 mm per year in average. The vegetation consists of scrubland (Maquia) with different species. In the years after the fire Brachypodium retusum, Thymus vulgaris, Fumana Ericoides, Cistus Albidus, Ulex parviflorus or Rosmarinus officinalis regenerated, but after some years dense shrub cover develops with typical species such as Quercus coccifera, Quercus ilex, Pistacia lentiscus and Junyperus oxycedurs. Soils are shallow (0-30 cm depth) and distributed in pockets of soil mixed with rock outcrops. All the selected plots were located on the middle tram of the slopes to avoid differences, although previous studies showed no differences in infiltration rates, overland flow and soil erosion on the different trams of the slopes on limestone (Cerdà, 1998d). Each site was selected upon the last fire registered: 0, 1, 2, 3, 5, 9, 16, 24, 33, 44, 51, and 63 years after the last fire. The measurements were carried out in August 2013 by means of a portable rainfall simulator (Cerdà et al., 2009; Iserloh et al., 2013). Ten plots of 0.25 m2 were selected at each site. Rainfall simulation at 55 mm h-1 during one hour was applied. The results show that immediately after the wildfires the soil erosion was negligible due to the ash cover, which acted as mulch, meanwhile after few months (1 year after the fire) the highest soil losses were measured. After 5 years the soil losses had reduced significantly and after 16 years were negligible. Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603498 (RECARE project) and by the Spanish Government with the research Project CGL2013- 47862-C2-1-R. References Bisantino T., Bingner R., Chouaib W., Gentile F., Trisorio Liuzzi G. 2015. Estimation of runoff, peak discharge and sediment load at the event scale in a medium-size mediterranean watershed using the annagnps model. Land Degradation and Development, 26 (4), 340-355. DOI: 10. 1002/ldr. 2213 Bodí, M.B., Doerr, S.H., Cerdà, A., Mataix-Solera, J. 2012. Hydrological effects of a layer of vegetation ash on underlying wettable and water repellent soil. Geoderma, 191, 14-23. DOI: 10.1016/j.geoderma.2012.01.006 Bodí, M.B., Mataix-Solera, J., Doerr, S.H., Cerdà, A. 2011. The wettability of ash from burned vegetation and its relationship to Mediterranean plant species type,burn severity and total organic carbon content. Geoderma, 160 (3-4), 599-607. Carvalho, S.C.P., de Lima, J.L.M.P., de Lima, M.I.P. 2015. Increasing the Rainfall Kinetic Energy of Spray Nozzles by using Meshes. Land Degradation and Development, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2349 Cerdà, A. 1998a.The influence of aspect and vegetation on seasonal changes in erosion under rainfall simulation on a clay soil in Spain. Canadian Journal of Soil Science, 78 (2), 321-330. Cerdà, A. 1998b. Changes in overland flow and infiltration after a rangeland fire in a Mediterranean scrubland. Hydrological Processes, 12 (7), 1031-1042. Cerdà, A. 1998c. Post-fire dynamics of erosional processes under Mediterranean climatic conditions(1998) Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie, 42 (3), 373-398. Cerdà, A. 1998d. The influence of geomorphological position and vegetation cover on the erosional and hydrological processes on a Mediterranean hillslope. Hydrological Processes, 12 (4), 661-671. Cerdà, A., Doerr, S.H. 2005.Influence of vegetation recovery on soil hydrology and erodibility following fire: An 11-year investigation International Journal of Wildland Fire, 14 (4), 423-437. DOI: 10.1071/WF05044 Cerdà, A., Jurgensen, M.F., Bodi, M.B. 2009. Effects of ants on water and soil losses from organically-managed citrus orchards in eastern Spain. Biologia, 64 (3), 527-531. DOI: 10.2478/s11756-009-0114-7 Dlapa P., Bodí M.B., Mataix-Solera J., Cerdà A., Doerr S.H. 2015. Organic matter and wettability characteristics of wildfire ash from Mediterranean conifer forests. Catena, 135, 369-376. DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2014.06.018 Dlapa, P., Bodí, M.B., Mataix-Solera, J., Cerdà, A., Doerr, S.H. 2013. FT-IR spectroscopy reveals that ash water repellency is highly dependent on ash chemical composition. Catena, 108, 35-43. DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2012.02.011 Gessesse B., Bewket W., Bräuning A. 2015. Model-Based Characterization and Monitoring of Runoff and Soil Erosion in Response to Land Use/land Cover Changes in the Modjo Watershed, Ethiopia. (2015) Land Degradation and Development, 26 (7), 711-724.. DOI: 10. 1002/ldr. 2276 Hedo J., Lucas-Borja M. E., Wic C., Andrés-Abellán M., De Las Heras J. 2015. Soil microbiological properties and enzymatic activities of long-term post-fire recovery in dry and semiarid Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis M.) forest stands. Solid Earth, 6 (1), 243-252. DOI: 10. 5194/se-6-243-2015 Hedo de Santiago, J., Lucas-Borja, M.E., Wic-Baena, C., Andrés-Abellán, M., de las Heras, J. 2015. Effects of thinning and induced drought on microbiological soil properties and plant species diversity at dry and semiarid locations. Land Degradation and Development, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2361 Iserloh, T., Ries, B.J., Cerdà, A., Echeverría, M.T., Fister, W., Geißler, C., Kuhn, N.J., León, F.J., Peters, P., Schindewolf, M., Schmidt, J., Scholten, T., Seeger, M. 2013. Comparative measurements with seven rainfall s simulators on uniform bare fallow land. Zeitschrift fur Geomorphologie, 57 (1 SUPPL. 1), 1-10. DOI: 10.1127/0372-8854/2012/S-00085 Jordán-López, A., Martínez-Zavala, L., Bellinfante, N. 2009. Impact of different parts of unpaved forest roads on runoff and sediment yield in a Mediterranean area. Science of the total environment, 407(2), 937-944. Keesstra, S.D., Maroulis, J., Argaman, E., Voogt, A., Wittenberg, L, 2014. Effects of controlled fire on hydrology and erosion under simulated rainfall. Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica 40, 269-293. DOI: 10.18172/cig.2532 Lasanta, T., Cerdà, A. 2005. Long-term erosional responses after fire in the Central Spanish Pyrenees: 2. Solute reléase. Catena, 60 (1), 81-100. DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2004.09.005 Lassu, T., Seeger, M., Peters, P., Keesstra, S.D. 2015. The Wageningen Rainfall Simulator: Set-up and Calibration of an Indoor Nozzle-Type Rainfall Simulator for Soil Erosion Studies. Land Degradation and Development, 26 (6), 604-612. DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2360 Mataix-Solera, J., Cerdà, A., Arcenegui, V., Jordán, A., Zavala, L.M. 2011. Fire effects on soil aggregation: A review. Earth-Science Reviews, 109 (1-2), 44-60. DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.08.002 Moreno-Ramón, H., Quizembe, S.J., Ibáñez-Asensio, S. 2014. Coffee husk mulch on soil erosion and runoff: Experiences under rainfall simulation experiment. Solid Earth, 5 (2), 851-862. DOI: 10.5194/se-5-851-2014 Novara A., Gristina L., Rühl J., Pasta S., D'Angelo G., La Mantia T., Pereira P. 2013. Grassland fire effect on soil organic carbon reservoirs in a semiarid environment. Solid Earth, 4 (2), 381-385.. DOI: 10. 5194/se-4-381-2013 Novara, A., Gristina, L., Bodì, M.B., Cerdà, A. 2011. The impact of fire on redistribution of soil organic matter on a Mediterranean hillslope under maquia vegetation type Land Degradation and Development, 22 (6), 530-536. DOI: 10.1002/ldr.1027 Novara, A., Gristina, L., Saladino, S.S., Santoro, A., Cerdà, A. 2011. Soil erosion assessment on tillage and alternative soil managements in a Sicilian vineyard. Soil and Tillage Research, 117, 140-147. DOI: 10.1016/j.still.2011.09.007 Ochoa-Cueva P., Fries A., Montesinos P., Rodríguez-Díaz J. A., Boll J. 2015. Spatial Estimation of Soil Erosion Risk by Land-cover Change in the Andes OF Southern Ecuador. Land Degradation and Development, 26 (6), 565-573DOI: 10. 1002/ldr. 2219 Pereira, P., Cerdà, A., Úbeda, X., Mataix-Solera, J., Arcenegui, V., Zavala, L.M. 2015. Modelling the Impacts of Wildfire on Ash Thickness in a Short-Term Period. Land Degradation and Development, 26 (2), 180-192. DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2195 Pereira, P., Cerdà, A., Úbeda, X., Mataix-Solera, J., Martin, D., Jordán, A., Burguet, M. 2013. Spatial models for monitoring the spatio-temporal evolution of ashes after fire and ash; A case study of a burnt grassland in Lithuania. Solid Earth, 4 (1), 153-165 DOI: 10.5194/se-4-153-2013 Pereira, P., Jordán, A., Cerdà, A., Martin, D. 2015. Editorial: The role of ash in fire-affected ecosystem. Catena, . DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2014.11.016 Pereira, P., Úbeda, X., Mataix-Solera, J., Oliva, M., Novara, A.Short-term changes in soil Munsell colour value, organic matter content and soil water repellency after a spring grassland fire in Lithuania (2014) Solid Earth, 5 (1), 209-225. DOI: 10.5194/se-5-209-2014 Pérez-Cabello, F., Cerdà, A., de la Riva, J., Echeverría, M.T., García-Martín, A., Ibarra, P., Lasanta, T., Montorio, R., Palacios, V. 2012. Micro-scale post-fire surface cover changes monitored using high spatial resolution photography in a semiarid environment: A useful tool in the study of post-fire soil erosion processes. Journal of Arid Environments, 76 (1), 88-96. DOI: 10.1016/j.jaridenv.2011.08.007 Prosdocimi,M., Jordán, A., Tarolli, P., Keesstra, S., Novara, A., Cerdà, A. 2016. The immediate effectiveness of barley straw mulch in reducing soil erodibility and surface runoff generation in Mediterranean vineyards. Science of The Total Environment, 547, 15 ,323-330, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.076 Sadeghi, S.H.R., Gholami, L., Sharifi, E., Khaledi Darvishan, A., Homaee, M. 2015. Scale effect on runoff and soil loss control using rice mulch under laboratory conditions. Solid Earth, 6 (1), 1-8. DOI: 10.5194/se-6-1-2015 Tessler, N., Sapir, Y., Wittenberg, L., Greenbaum, N. 2015. Recovery of Mediterranean Vegetation after Recurrent Forest Fires: Insight from the 2010 Forest Fire on Mount Carmel, Israel. Land Degradation and Development, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2419 Tsibart, A., Gennadiev, A., Koshovskii, T., Watts, A. 2014. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in post-fire soils of drained peatlands in western Meshchera (Moscow region, Russia). Solid Earth, 5 (2), 1305-1317. DOI: 10.5194/se-5-1305-2014 Wang, C., Wang, G., Wang, Y., Rafique, R., Ma, L., Hu, L., Luo, Y. 2015. Fire Alters Vegetation and Soil Microbial Community in Alpine Meadow. Land Degradation and Development, . DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2367

Contributions to urban heat island on the local neighborhood scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, Daniel; Schlink, Uwe

2017-04-01

Already today around half of the global population is living in urban regions and recent studies expect a further increase until mid-21st century. Therefore, especially in the context of climate change, an increasing amount of urban inhabitants are affected by urban climate and air quality. One special characteristic of urban climate is the urban heat island (UHI) effect, where urbanized regions are warmer than the rural surroundings. With respect to climate change and the growing urbanization it is obvious that the UHI effect will tend to be intensified. To keep our cities worth living, it is necessary to think about adaptation and mitigation strategies which refer to both, climate protection as well as utilization of chances resulting from climate changes. One step to a more precisely adaptation, particularly on the neighborhood scale, is an improved understanding of the magnitude of bio geophysical processes (e.g.: radiation balance, convection efficiency, evapotranspiration, storage heat, anthropogenic heat etc.), which contribute to the urban warming. Considering that UHI can be expressed as temperature difference ΔT between urban and rural areas, we can interpret these processes as how they would change temperature, because of energy redistribution, from a rural area to an urbanized region. Up to now on the local scale there is a knowledge gap about these processes. The mentioned processes are parts of a surface energy balance (based on the work of Zhao et al., 2014). That means they refer to the surface UHI effect and not to the canopy layer UHI effect. Assuming that the urban region is a volume with the top at the height of the canopy layer, we can approximately identify the surface UHI effect as the canopy layer UHI effect since the information comes from both the surface and the atmosphere inside. This assumption is not valid for Zhao's approach because they analyzed whole cities and could neglect such processes within the volume. This contribution presents first results from my PhD project where I take micrometeorological simulations for a case study site ("Bayerischer Bahnhof" in Leipzig; Saxony, Germany; 51°20', 12°22') from the ENVI-met model and calculate the UHI as well as the contributing bio geophysical processes. The results are maps of the processes that directly quantify their contribution to the total UHI at each point in the area. The benefits of this approach can be seen in the small resolution (3x3 m) of the simulation area which gives further insights into local UHI variances. Also, the effects of restructuring within quarters and methods to avoid adverse health impacts on the residents can be developed in a more precisely and sophisticated way. Zhao, L., Lee, X., Smith, R.B., Oleson, K., (2014): Strong contributions of local background climate to urban heat islands. Nature 511: 216-219, doi: 10.1038/nature13462

Insight to forcing of late Quaternary climate change from aeolian dust archives in eastern Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGowan, H. A.; Marx, S.; Soderholm, J.; Denholm, J.; Petherick, L.

2010-12-01

The Australian continent is the largest source of dust in the Southern Hemisphere. Historical dust emissions records display inter-annual variability in response to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and inter-decadal variability which has been linked to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These reflect change in hydrometeorology of the continents two major dust source regions, the Murray-Darling Basin and the Lake Eyre Basin. The historical records do not allow longer term variability of ENSO and the PDO and their influence on Australia to be quantified. Importantly, sub-Milankovitch centennial to multi-millennial scale climate cycles and their impacts are not represented in the historical records. In this paper we present summary results from the analysis of two aeolain dust records spanning 7 ka and 45 ka. These were developed from ombrotrophic mire and lacustrine sediment cores collected from the Australian Alps and southeast Queensland. Both sites are located in the southeast Australian dust transport pathway and provide rare insight to forcings of climate variability and its impacts on eastern Australia through the late Quaternary. Age controls for the cores were established using 14C and 210Pb dating [McGowan et al. 2008, 2010]. The cores were sliced into 2 to 5 mm segments with a sub-sample of each segment combusted at 450°C for 12 hrs to destroy organic material and allow recovery of mineral dust. Geochemical fingerprinting of the < 90 µm fraction of the dust was used to determine provenance and to account for contamination by fluvial and/or colluvial sediments [Marx et al. 2005]. Analysis of the dust records, proxy for hydrometeorology, identified tropical ocean teleconnections, variability of solar irradiance and change in ocean deep water circulation as the principal causes of inter-decadal to centennial scale climate cycles and change. Predictions of future climate must consider these forcings so that in water scarce regions of Australia the effect on the hydroclimate is incorporated into the design of water allocation policy and infrastructure, and the management of environmental systems. Comparison with ice core records from Greenland and Antarctica indicate both synchronicity of global climate variability and the impact of forcings originating from the North Hemisphere. These results highlight the potential for adverse impacts on the climate of Australia by disturbance to North Atlantic Ocean circulation. References Marx, S. K., et al. 2005: Provenance of long travelled dust determined with ultra trace element composition: A pilot study with samples from New Zealand glaciers. Earth Surf. Processes Landforms, 30, 699-716. McGowan, H.A., et al. 2008: An ultra-high resolution record of aeolian sedimentation during the late Quaternary from eastern Australia. Palaeogeogr. Palaeoclimatol. Palaeoecol., 265(3-4), 171-181. McGowan, H. A., et al. 2010: Evidence of solar and tropical ocean forcing of hydroclimate cycles in southeastern Australia for the past 6500 years. Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L10705, doi:10.1029/2010GL042918.

Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haines, K.; Melia, N.; Hawkins, E.; Day, J. J.

2017-12-01

In our previous work [1] we showed how trans-Arctic shipping routes would become more available through the 21st century as sea ice declines, using CMIP5 models with means and stds calibrated to PIOMAS sea ice observations. Sea ice will continue to close shipping routes to open water vessels through the winter months for the foreseeable future so the availability of open sea routes will vary greatly from year to year. Here [2] we look at whether the trans-Arctic shipping season period can be predicted in seasonal forecasts, again using several climate models, and testing both perfect and imperfect knowledge of the initial sea ice conditions. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts may show lower skill before a May `predictability barrier'. Focussing on the northern sea route (NSR) off Siberia, the date of opening of this sea route is twice as variable as the closing date, and this carries through to reduced predictability at the start of the season. Under climate change the later freeze-up date accounts for 60% of the lengthening season, Fig1 We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than for average ice years. Forecasting the exact timing of route open periods is harder (more weather dependent) under average ice conditions while in high and low ice years the season is more controlled by the initial ice conditions from spring onwards. This could be very useful information for companies planning vessel routing for the coming season. We tested this dependence on the initial ice conditions by changing the initial ice state towards climatologically average conditions and show directly that early summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts of the coming shipping season. Mechanisms for this are discussed. This strongly suggests that good sea ice thickness observations should become a key component of the future Arctic observing system. Melia, N., K. Haines, and E. Hawkins (2016), Sea ice decline and 21st century trans-Arctic shipping routes, Geophys. Res. Lett., doi:10.1002/ 2016GL069315. Melia, N., K. Haines, E. Hawkins and J.J. Day, 2017, Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions. Env. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60

The importance of Soil Science to understand and remediate Land Degradation and Desertification processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouma, Johan; Keesstra, Saskia; Cerdà, Artemi

2017-04-01

Documentation is abundantly available to demonstrate the devastating effect of Land degradation and desertification on sustainable development in many countries. This present a major barrier to achieving the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, as agreed upon at the General Assembly of the UN in September 2015. Research has certainly been successful in reversing these two processes in many case studies but persistant problems remain not only in developing countries but also in developed countries where, for example, soil compaction and loss of soil organic matter due to the industrialization of agriculture, result in a structural decline of agricultural productivity and environmental quality. The problems are quite complex because not only technical matters play a role but also, and often quite prominantly, socio-economic factors. What turn out to be successful remediation procedures at a given location or region, based on the characterization of underlying soil processes, will most likely not work in other regions inhibiting the extrapolation of local research results to areas elsewhere. One important reason for location specificity of research is the variation of soil properties in combination with the location of soils in a given landscape which governs its water, energy and nutrient dynamics, also considering the climate. Different soils are characterized by different natural riks for degradation and , in arid regions, deserticification and their particular remediation potential differs widely as well. Such risks can sometimes be overcome by innovative soil management and knowing the soil type, the climate and landscape processes, extrapolation of such types of innovative management to comparable soils and landscapes elsewhere may be feasible and effective , provided that socio-economic conditions allow the required risk-reducing measures to be realized in practice. More cooperation between soil scientists and physical geographers, familiar with landscape processes, is therefore seen as a promising development in the contiuing battle to reduce land degradation and desertification. Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement 603498 (RECARE project) and the CGL2013- 47862-C2-1-R and CGL2016-75178-C2-2-R national research projects. References Bouma, J. and L. Montanarella. 2016. Facing policy challenges with inter- and transdisciplinary soil research focused on the SDG's. SOIL 2, 135-145, doi:10.5194/soil-2-135-2016. Brevik, E. C., Cerdà, A., Mataix-Solera, J., Pereg, L., Quinton, J. N., Six, J., and Van Oost, K. 2015. The interdisciplinary nature of SOIL, SOIL, 1, 117-129, doi:10.5194/soil-1-117-2015, Easdale, M.H., 2016. Zero net livelihood degradation - the quest for a multidimensional protocol to combat desertification. SOIL 2, 129-134. doi:10.5194/soil-2-129-2016 Keesstra, S. D., Bouma, J., Wallinga, J., Tittonell, P., Smith, P., Cerdà, A., Montanarella, L., Quinton, J. N., Pachepsky, Y., van der Putten, W. H., Bardgett, R. D., Moolenaar, S., Mol, G., Jansen, B., and Fresco, L. O.: The significance of soils and soil science towards realization of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, SOIL, 2, 111-128, doi:10.5194/soil-2-111-2016, 2016. Keesstra, S.D., Geissen, V., van Schaik, L., Mosse., K., Piiranen, S., 2012. Soil as a filter for groundwater quality. Current Opinions in Environmental Sustainability 4, 507-516. doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2012.10.007 Mol, G., Keesstra, S.D., 2012. Editorial: Soil science in a changing world. Current Opinions in Environmental Sustainability 4: 473-477. Symeonakis, E., Karathanasis, N., Koukoulas, S., & Panagopoulos, G. (2016). Monitoring sensitivity to land degradation and desertification with the environmentally sensitive area index: The case of lesvos island. Land Degradation and Development, 27(6), 1562-1573. doi:10.1002/ldr.2285 Zhang, K., An, Z., Cai, D., Guo, Z., & Xiao, J. (2016). Key role of desert-oasis transitional area in avoiding oasis land degradation from aeolian desertification in dunhuang, northwest china. Land Degradation and Development, doi:10.1002/ldr.2584

Climate change impacts on Swiss groundwater: insights from historical records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figura, S.; Livingstone, D. M.; Kipfer, R.

2012-04-01

Knowledge of the impact of climate change on groundwater is limited mainly by a lack of relevant long-term data that would allow the effects of climatic forcing to be assessed empirically. With the aim of assessing the consequences of climate change on groundwater, we collected and statistically analysed historical groundwater data from Switzerland. While most existing studies have focused on the impact of climate change on groundwater quantity, we focus on groundwater quality. As measures of groundwater quality we chose groundwater temperature and oxygen concentration because of their importance for biogeochemical processes and for reasons of data availability. Our analyses show that in aquifers that are recharged by riverbank infiltration, groundwater temperature has increased by 1°C - 1.5°C over the last 30 years. By contrast, in aquifers that are recharged only by the percolation of precipitation, increases in groundwater temperature are slight or non-existent. A detailed analysis of groundwater temperatures measured in the pumping wells of five aquifers that are recharged by riverbank infiltration revealed that an abrupt temperature increase in the late 1980s, which was also detected in Swiss air temperature and river water temperatures and which is traceable ultimately to a change in the behaviour of the Arctic Oscillation, accounted for a large proportion of the total groundwater warming [1]. Oxygen concentrations were available for four of the five aquifers we investigated. In two of these aquifers the oxygen concentration underwent a strong decrease, in the third a slight decrease, and in the fourth a slight increase. Neither long-term trends in river water oxygen concentration nor altered hydraulic conditions seem to be responsible for the long-term trends in groundwater oxygen concentrations. However, the decreasing oxygen concentrations were accompanied by decreasing DOC concentrations in the groundwater, while DOC concentrations in the river water increased over the same period. We therefore suggest that higher temperatures are resulting in enhanced microbiological activity in the hyporheic zone, resulting in increased oxygen consumption and decreasing groundwater oxygen concentrations. Based on our analyses of the available long-term Swiss data, we postulate that in aquifers that are recharged by riverbank infiltration, the frequency of occurrence of anoxic conditions will increase in future if temperatures continue to increase, assuming the nutrient load in river water remains constant. Groundwater anoxia may pose a challenge to the water supply infrastructure because of the dissolution of iron and manganese oxides, which, after re-oxidation, precipitate and cause clogging of the pumping wells. [1] Figura, S. et al. (2011), Geophys. Res. Lett., 38(23), L23401, DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049749.

Projecting Age-Stratified Risk of Exposure to Inland Flooding and Wildfire Smoke in the United States under Two Climate Scenarios.

PubMed

Mills, David; Jones, Russell; Wobus, Cameron; Ekstrom, Julia; Jantarasami, Lesley; St Juliana, Alexis; Crimmins, Allison

2018-04-17

The public health community readily recognizes flooding and wildfires as climate-related health hazards, but few studies quantify changes in risk of exposure, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. This study quantifies future populations potentially exposed to inland flooding and wildfire smoke under two climate scenarios, highlighting the populations in particularly vulnerable age groups (≤4 y old and ≥65 y old). Spatially explicit projections of inland flooding and wildfire under two representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5 and RCP4.5) are integrated with static (2010) and dynamic (2050 and 2090) age-stratified projections of future contiguous U.S. populations at the county level. In both 2050 and 2090, an additional one-third of the population will live in areas affected by larger and more frequent inland flooding under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5. Approximately 15 million children and 25 million older adults could avoid this increased risk of flood exposure each year by 2090 under a moderate mitigation scenario (RCP4.5 compared with RCP8.5). We also find reduced exposure to wildfire smoke under the moderate mitigation scenario. Nearly 1 million young children and 1.7 million older adults would avoid exposure to wildfire smoke each year under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. By integrating climate-driven hazard and population projections, newly created county-level exposure maps identify locations of potential significant future public health risk. These potential exposure results can help inform actions to prevent and prepare for associated future adverse health outcomes, particularly for vulnerable children and older adults. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2594.

Global warming threatens agricultural productivity in Africa and South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sultan, Benjamin

2012-12-01

The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC; Christensen et al 2007) has, with greater confidence than previous reports, warned the international community that the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions will result in global climate change. One of the most direct and threatening impacts it may have on human societies is the potential consequences on global crop production. Indeed agriculture is considered as the most weather-dependent of all human activities (Hansen 2002) since climate is a primary determinant for agricultural productivity. The potential impact of climate change on crop productivity is an additional strain on the global food system which is already facing the difficult challenge of increasing food production to feed a projected 9 billion people by 2050 with changing consumption patterns and growing scarcity of water and land (Beddington 2010). In some regions such as Sub-Saharan Africa or South Asia that are already food insecure and where most of the population increase and economic development will take place, climate change could be the additional stress that pushes systems over the edge. A striking example, if needed, is the work from Collomb (1999) which estimates that by 2050 food needs will more than quintuple in Africa and more than double in Asia. Better knowledge of climate change impacts on crop productivity in those vulnerable regions is crucial to inform policies and to support adaptation strategies that may counteract the adverse effects. Although there is a growing literature on the impact of climate change on crop productivity in tropical regions, it is difficult to provide a consistent assessment of future yield changes because of large uncertainties in regional climate change projections, in the response of crops to environmental change (rainfall, temperature, CO2 concentration), in the coupling between climate models and crop productivity functions, and in the adaptation of agricultural systems to progressive climate change (Roudier et al 2011, Challinor et al 2007). These uncertainties result in a large spread of crop yield projections indicating a low confidence in future yield projections. A recent study by Knox et al (2012) is among the first to provide robust evidence of how climate change will impact productivity of major crops in Africa and South Asia. Using a meta-analysis, which is widely used in epidemiology and medicine and consists in comparing and combining results from different independent published studies, Knox et al (2012) show a consistent yield loss by the 2050s of major crops (wheat, maize, sorghum and millet) in both regions. This systematic review and meta-analysis of data in 52 original publications from an initial screen of 1144 studies nicely extend previous works by Müller et al (2011) and Roudier et al (2011), confirming the threat of negative climate change impacts in Africa but also in South Asia. Knox et al (2012) estimate that mean yield change for all crops is -8% by the 2050s with strong variations among crops and regions. For instance evidence of yield reduction up to -40% are detected for some regions of Africa while no mean yield change is detected for rice in India. Variations in crop yield projections decrease when considering a large number of climate models confirming the relevance of the expanded use of multi-model ensembles of projections of future climate change adopted in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Conversely, variations in crop yield projections increase with the crop model complexity especially when using process-based crop models over statistical models. Such differences in crop yield variations may be attributed either to the structural differences between crop model approaches or to the spatial scale differences; biophysical crop models operating at finer spatial scales and thus reproducing the higher variability of impacts at these scales. Such robust evidence of future yield change in Africa and South Asia can be surprising in regards to the diverging projections in a warmer climate of summer monsoon rainfall, the primary driver for rainfed crop productivity in the region, especially in West Africa where some studies make projections of wetter conditions and some predict more frequent droughts (Druyan 2011). This is because of the adverse role of higher temperatures in shortening the crop cycle duration and increasing evapotranspiration demand and thus reducing crop yields, irrespective of rainfall changes (Berg et al 2012, Roudier et al 2011, Schlenker and Lobell 2010). Potential wetter conditions or elevated CO2 concentrations hardly counteract the adverse effect of higher temperatures. Although such systematic reviews and meta-analyses conducted by Knox et al (2012), Müller et al (2011) or Roudier et al (2011) can provide important insights about sign, magnitude and uncertainty of climate change impacts, direct comparison among studies suffers from inevitable limitations. In particular the diversity of the studies selected for the meta-analysis, encompassing a range of different countries, scales, crops and methods (climate models and scenarios, crop models, downscaling technique), makes it difficult to aggregate crop yield projections to provide a consistent and precise impact assessment. A rigorous multi-ensembles approach, with varying climate models, emissions scenarios, crop models, and downscaling techniques, as recommended by Challinor et al (2007), would enable a move towards a more complete sampling of uncertainty in crop yield projections. In that sense, coordinated modeling experiments such as the ones conducted throughout the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; www.agmip.org/) are likely to improve substantially the characterization of the threat of crop yield losses and food insecurity due to climate change. In spite of the threat of crop yield losses in a warmer climate, it is important to keep in mind, as discussed by Berg et al (2012), that developing countries in the tropics have the potential to more than offset such adverse impacts by implementing more intensive agricultural practices and adapting agriculture to climate and environmental change. Indeed Africa and in a lesser extend South Asia are among the only regions of the world where there is an untapped potential for raising agricultural productivity since poor soil fertility and low input levels, combined with extensive agricultural practices, contribute to a large gap between actual and potential yields (Licker et al 2010). References Beddington J 2010 Food security: contributions from science to a new and greener revolution Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 365 61-71 Berg A, de Noblet-Ducoudré N, Sultan B, Lengaigne N and Guimberteau M 2012 Projections of climate change impacts on potential crop productivity over tropical regions Agric. For. Meteorol. at press (doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.12.003) Challinor A, Wheeler T, Garforth C, Craufurd P and Kassam A 2007 Assessing the vulnerability of food crop systems in Africa to climate change Clim. Change 83 381-99 Christensen J H et al 2007 Regional climate projections Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ed S Solomon, D Qin, M Manning, Z Chen, M Marquis, K B Averyt, M Tignor and H L Miller (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press) Collomb P 1999 A narrow road to food security from now to 2050 FAO Economica (Paris: FAO) Druyan L M 2011 Studies of 21st-century precipitation trends over West Africa Int. J. Climatol. 31 1415-572 Hansen J W 2002 Realizing the potential benefits of climate prediction to agriculture: issues, approaches, challenges Agric. Syst. 74 309-30 Knox J, Hess T, Daccache A and Wheeler T 2012 Climate change impacts on crop productivity in Africa and South Asia Environ. Res. Lett. 7 034032 Licker R, Johnston M, Foley J A, Barford C, Kucharik C J, Monfreda C and Ramankutty N 2010 Mind the gap: how do climate and agricultural management explain the 'yield gap' of croplands around the world? Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr. 19 769-82 Müller C, Cramer W, Hare W L and Lotze-Campen H 2011 Climate change risks for African agriculture Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108 4313-5 Roudier P, Sultan S, Quirion P and Berg A 2011 The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: what does the recent literature say? Glob. Environ. Change 21 1073-83 Schlenker W and Lobell D 2010 Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture Environ. Res. Lett. 5 014010

Military Climate Resilience Planning and Contemporary Urban Systems Thinking

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-11

2011), a partnership that in- cludes military-related organizations such as the Society of American Mili- tary Engineers (SAME). The guide serves to...the American Meteorological Society 93(12):1879–1900. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00019.1. TISP. 2011. “2011 Regional Disaster Resilience...authorized documents. DESTROY THIS REPORT WHEN NO LONGER NEEDED. DO NOT RETURN IT TO THE ORIGINATOR. ERDC/CERL MP-17-4 iii Contents Abstract

Oxygen isotopes suggest elevated thermometabolism within multiple Permo-Triassic therapsid clades

PubMed Central

Rey, Kévin; Amiot, Romain; Fourel, François; Abdala, Fernando; Fluteau, Frédéric; Jalil, Nour-Eddine; Liu, Jun; Rubidge, Bruce S; Smith, Roger MH; Steyer, J Sébastien; Viglietti, Pia A; Wang, Xu; Lécuyer, Christophe

2017-01-01

The only true living endothermic vertebrates are birds and mammals, which produce and regulate their internal temperature quite independently from their surroundings. For mammal ancestors, anatomical clues suggest that endothermy originated during the Permian or Triassic. Here we investigate the origin of mammalian thermoregulation by analysing apatite stable oxygen isotope compositions (δ18Op) of some of their Permo-Triassic therapsid relatives. Comparing of the δ18Op values of therapsid bone and tooth apatites to those of co-existing non-therapsid tetrapods, demonstrates different body temperatures and thermoregulatory strategies. It is proposed that cynodonts and dicynodonts independently acquired constant elevated thermometabolism, respectively within the Eucynodontia and Lystrosauridae + Kannemeyeriiformes clades. We conclude that mammalian endothermy originated in the Epicynodontia during the middle-late Permian. Major global climatic and environmental fluctuations were the most likely selective pressures on the success of such elevated thermometabolism. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.28589.001 PMID:28716184

Shrublands and Soil Erosion. An State-of-the-Art

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Estríngana, Pablo; Dunkerley, David; Cerdà, Artemi

2014-05-01

Shrublands and Soil Erosion. An State-of-the-Art Arid and semiarid regions occupy two-fifth of the continents (Reynolds et al., 2007). These regions are characterized by dry climatic conditions, recurrent droughts and a scant rainfall pattern with a marked seasonality and a high inter-annual variability which makes water to be a scant resource and vegetation to follow a high variability spatial distribution pattern (Breshears et al., 1998; Cecchi et al., 2006; Dunkerley, 2008). These conditions make these areas more sensitive to climate change (Rowell, 2005) and to land use change as a consequence of land abandonment (Poyatos et al., 2003; Delgado et al., 2010; García-Ruiz, 2010), increasing the risk of desertification (Puigdefábregas and Mendizabal, 1998; Geeson et al., 2002), in such a way that 65-70% of arid and semiarid areas are vulnerable to this degradation process (UNEP, 1991). Soil Erosion and Land Degradation are closely related to the changes in the vegetation cover (Zhao et al., 2013). Although other factors such as rainfall intensity or slope (Ziadat and Taimeh, 2013) the plant cover is the main factor that controls the soil erosion, controlling the infiltration and runoff generation (Cerdà, 1998a; Kargar Chigani et al., 2012; Haregeweyn, 2013). Soil erosion show non-sustainable rates under these regions, such as under Mediterranean conditions (Cerdà et al., 2010) and on agriculture land (Cerdà et al; 2007; 2009) due to climatic conditions, to parent material and to the roughed terrain (Romero Díaz et al., 2010). The traditional impact of grazing, of extremely intense fires, of ploughing and the widespread use of herbicides on agriculture, the increase of the road and railway embankments and the agricultural land abandonment cause vegetation removal. Canopy cover partitions rainfall reducing the amount of water reaching the soil and the kinetic energy of rainfall drops, protecting the soil against the impact of rainfall drops. Vegetation distribution controls the exposure of soils to rainfall drops affecting soil erosion (Cerdà, 1997a; Cammeraat et al., 2010; Kakembo et al., 2012). The lost of vegetation can trigger Desertification (Izzo et al., 2013) because soil erosion is highly dependent on the effective rainfall striking soil particles (Cerdà and Lasanta, 2005; Haile and Fetene; 2012; Miao et al., 2012, Prokop and Poręba, 2012). Shrubs are the most characteristic vegetation type in semiarid and arid ecosystems all over the world (Tomaselli, 1981; Kummerrow, 1989), typical of intermediate stages of most vegetation succession series, being the first in terms of dominant vegetation coverage, occupying 24% of drylands, followed by crop vegetation with 20% (Reynolds et al., 2007). Moreover, shrub vegetation covers the soil permanently, being able to adapt to very unfavourable conditions like droughts, frosts, non-fertile soils,… improving the soil quality due to their capacity to activate organic matter cycles supplying greater amounts of litter (Alegre et al., 2004). Shrubs have complex root systems, inducing changes in soil properties and increasing soil macroporosity (indirect effects) that increase infiltration reducing runoff and the soil loss (Garcia-Estringana et al., 2010). Shrubs improve the infiltration capacity of soils (Cerdà, 1997), even in the most difficult conditions (Marques et al., 2005), the water retention capacity (Ruiz Sinoga et al., 2010) and the runoff and sediment redistribution. Shrub vegetation has been seen as a key vegetation cover in semiarid lands to control the soil and water losses (Francis and Thornes, 1990; Barea et al., 1996; Romero Díaz, 2003; Cerdà and Doerr, 2007). But the majority of revegetation programmes in arid and semiarid regions still ignores the great potential of this type of vegetation. Romero Díaz et al. (2010) indicated that 99% of revegetation programmes carried out by public authorities in Spain used fast growing tree vegetation (Pinus sp. and Eucalyptus sp.) that grow faster in non-fertile soils resisting to isolation. But the introduction of these species is conducted using aggressive techniques like terracing, changing topography and making more vulnerable terrain to soil loss, with erosion rates one or two order of magnitude greater than other shrublands naturally recovered (Romero Díaz et al., 2010). In relation to tree vegetation shrubs cover the soil faster, being very efficient in reducing runoff and soil erosion (Kummerow, 1989; Haase et al., 2000), not being necessary aggressive techniques for revegetation operations. The land use is the key factor that determines the soil loss and the vegetation recovery which can contribute to reduce the soil and water losses. Land abandonment use to trigger an increase in soil erosion, but the vegetation recovery reduces the impact of the abandonment. The natural vegetation recovery is the most effective way to regenerate degraded soils although under arid and semiarid climatic conditions this process is delayed due to the water stress and soil degradation and revegetation programmes are carried out. A firm commitment for shrub vegetation is necessary for improving soil recovery in semiarid and arid lands. Acknowledgements The research projects 07 M/0077/1998, 07 M/0023/2000 and RTA01-078-C2- 2, GL2008-02879/BTE, LEDDRA243857 and RECARE FP7 project 603498 supported this research. References Alegre, J., Alonso-Blázquez, N., de Andrés, F., Tenorio, J.L., Ayerbe, L. 2004. Revegetation and reclamation of soils using wild leguminous shrubs in cold semiarid Mediterranean conditions: Litterfall and carbon and nitrogen returns under two aridity regimes. Plant and Soil 263, 203-112. Barea, J.M., Requena, N., Jimenez, I. 1996. A revegetation strategy based on the management of arbuscular mycorrhizae, Rhizobium and rhizobacteria for the reclamation of desertified Mediterranean shrubland ecosystems. In: Mycorrhization of Forest Plants under Arid and Semi-arid Conditions and Desertification Control in the Mediterranean, CIHEAM-IAMZ, Zaragoza, pp. 75-86. Breshears, D.D., Nyhan, J.W., Heil, C.E., Wilcox, B.P. 1998. Effects of woody plants on microclimate in a semiarid woodland: Soil temperature and evaporation in canopy and intercanopy patches. International Journal of Plant Sciences 159, 1010-1017. Cammeraat, E.L.H., Cerdà, A., Imeson, A.C. 2010. Ecohydrological adaptation of soils following land abandonment in a semi-arid environment. Ecohydrology 3, 421-430. Cecchi, G.A., Kröpfl, A.I., Villasuso, N.M., Distel, R.A. 2006. Stemflow and soil water redistribution in intact and disturbed plants of Larrea divaricata in southern Argentina. Arid Land Research and Management 20, 209-217. Cerdà, A. 1997. The effect of patchy distribution of Stipa tenacissima L. on runoff and erosion. Journal of Arid Environments 36, 37-51. Cerdà, A. 1998. Relationship between climate and soil hydrological and erosional characteristics along climatic gradients in Mediterranean limestone areas. Geomorphology, 25, 123-134. Cerdà, A., Imeson, A.C., Poesen, J., 2007. Soil Water Erosion in Rural Areas. Catena special issue 71, 191- 252. Cerdà, A., Flanagan, D.C., le Bissonnais, Y., Boardman, J., 2009. Soil Erosion and Agriculture. Soil and Tillage Research 106, 107-108. Cerdà, A., Hooke, J., Romero-Diaz, A., Montanarella, L., Lavee, H., 2010. Soil erosion on Mediterranean type-ecosystems. Land Degradation and Development 21, 71-74. Cerdà, A., Doerr, S.H. 2007. Soil wettability, runoff and erodibility of major dry-Mediterranean land use types on calcareous soils. Hydrological Processes, 21, 2325-2336. doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2008.03.010. Cerdà, A., Lasanta, A. 2005. Long-term erosional responses after fire in the Central Spanish Pyrenees: 1. Water and sediment yield. Catena, 60, 59-80. Delgado J, Llorens P, Nord G, Calder IR, Gallart F. 2010. Modelling the hydrological response of a Mediterranean medium-sized headwater basin subject to land cover change: the Cardener River basin (NE Spain). Journal of Hydrology 383: 125-134. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.07.024 Dunkerley, D. 2008. Intra-storm evaporation as a component of canopy interception loss in dryland shrubs: observations from Fowlers Gap, Australia. Hydrological Processes 22, 1985-1995. Francis, C., Thornes, J.B. 1990. Matorral: Erosion and reclamation. En: Albaladejo, J., Stocking,, M.A., Díaz, E. (Eds.), Degradación y regeneración del suelo en condiciones ambientales mediterráneas. Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Murcia, pp. 87-116. Garcia-Estringana, P., Alonso-Blázquez, N., Marques, M.J., Bienes, R., Alegre, J. 2010. Direct and indirect effects of Mediterranean vegetation on runoff and soil loss. European Journal of Soil Science 61, 174-185. García-Ruiz, J.M. 2010. The effects of land uses on soil erosion in Spain: a review. Catena 81, 1-11. Geeson, N., Brandt, C.J., Thornes, J.B. 2002. Mediterranean desertification: a mosaic of processes and responses. John Wiley & Sons, LTD, 433 pp. Haase, P., Pugnaire, F.I., Clark, S.C., Incoll, L.D. 2000. Photosynthetic rate and canopy development in the drought-deciduous shrub Anthyllis cytisoides L. Journal of Arid Environments 46, 79-91. Haile, G.W., Fetene, M. 2012. Assessment of soil erosion hazard in Kilie catchment, East Shoa, Ethiopia. Land Degradation and Development 23, 293-306. Haregeweyn, N., Poesen, J., Verstraeten, G., Govers, G., de Vente, J., Nyssen, J., Deckers, J., and Moeyersons, J. 2013. Assessing the performance of a spatially distributed soil erosion and sediment delivery model (WATEM/ SEDEM in Northern Ethiopia. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 188- 204. DOI 10.1002/ldr.1121 Izzo, M., Araujo, N., Aucelli, P. P. C., Maratea, A., and Sánchez, A. 2013. Land sensitivity to Desertification in the Dominican Republic: an adaptation of the ESA methodology. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 486-498. DOI 10.1002/ldr.2241 Kakembo, V., Ndlela, S., and Cammeraat, E. 2012. Trends in vegetation patchiness loss and implications for landscape function: the case of Pteronia incana invasion in the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. Land Degradation & Development, 23: 548- 556. DOI 10.1002/ldr.2175 Kargar Chigani, H., Khajeddin, S. J. and Karimzadeh, H. R. 2012. Soil relationships of three arid land plant species and their use in rehabilitating degraded sites. Land Degradation & Development, 23: 92- 101. DOI 10.1002/ldr.1057 Kummerrow, J. 1989. Structural aspects of shrubs in Mediterranean type plant communities. In: Bellot, J. (Ed.), Jornadas Sobre las Bases Ecológicas para la Gestión de Ecosistemas Terrestres. Options Méditerranéens. Série Séminaires. CIHEAM IAMZ, Zaragoza, Vol. 3, pp. 5-11. Marques, M.J., Jiménez, L., Pérez-Rodríguez, R., García-Ormaechea, S., Bienes, R. 2005. Reducing water erosion in a gypsic soil by combined use of organic amendment and shrub revegetation. Land Degradation and Development 16, 339-350. Miao, C. Y., Yang, L., Chen, X. H., Gao, Y. 2012. The vegetation cover dynamics (1982-2006) in different erosion regions of the Yellow River Basin, China. Land Degradation & Development, 23: 62- 71. DOI 10.1002/ldr.1050 Poyatos R, Llorens P, Piñol J, Rubio C. 2008. Response of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and pubescent oak (Quercus pubescens Willd.) to soil and atmospheric water deficits under Mediterranean mountain climate. Annals of Forest Science 65: 306/301-306/313. DOI: 10.1051/forest:2008003 Prokop, P., Poręba, G. J. 2012. Soil erosion associated with an upland farming system under population pressure in Northeast India. Land Degradation & Development, 23: 310- 321. DOI 10.1002/ldr.2147 Puigdefábregas, J., Mendizábal, T. 1998. Perspectives on desertification: western Mediterranean. Journal of Arid Environments 39, 209-224. Reynolds, J.F., Maestre, F.T., Kemp, P.R., Stafford-Smith, D.M., Lambin, E. 2007. Natural and human dimensions of land degradation in drylands: causes and consequences. In: Canadell, J.G., Pataki, D.E., Pitelka. L.F. (Eds.) Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, Global Change - The IGBP Series, pp. 247-259. Romero Díaz, A. 2003 Influencia de la litología en las consecuencias del abandono de tierras de cultivo en medio Mediterráneos semiáridos. Papeles de Geografía 38, 151-165. Romero Díaz, A., Belmonte Serrato, F., Ruiz-Sinoga, J.D. 2010. The geomorphic impact of afforestations on soil erosion in Southeast Spain. Land Degradation and Development 21, 188-195.Rowell, 2005 Ruiz Sinoga, J.D., Romero Díaz, A., Ferre Bueno, E., Martínez Murillo, J.F. 2010. The role of soil surface conditions in regulating runoff and erosion processes on a metamorphic hillslope (Southern Spain). Soil surface conditions, runoff and erosion in Southern Spain. Catena 80, 131-139. Tomaselli, R. 1981. Main physiognomic types and geographic distribution of shrub systems related to Mediterranean climates. In: di Castri, F., Goodall, D.W., Specht, R. (Eds.), Ecosystems of the world: Mediterranean-type shrublands. Elsevier, Amsterdam, Netherlands, pp. 95-106. UNEP. 1991. Status of Desertification and Implementation of the United Nations Plan of Action to Combat Desertification. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Nairobi. Zhao, G., Mu, X., Wen, Z., Wang, F., and Gao, P. 2013. Soil erosion, conservation, and Eco-environment changes in the Loess Plateau of China. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 499- 510. DOI 10.1002/ldr.2246 Ziadat, F. M., and Taimeh, A. Y. 2013. Effect of rainfall intensity, slope and land use and antecedent soil moisture on soil erosion in an arid environment. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 582- 590. DOI 10.1002/ldr.2239

Impact of Stochastic Parameterization Schemes on Coupled and Uncoupled Climate Simulations with the Community Earth System Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, H. M.; Berner, J.; Coleman, D.; Palmer, T.

2015-12-01

Stochastic parameterizations have been used for more than a decade in atmospheric models to represent the variability of unresolved sub-grid processes. They have a beneficial effect on the spread and mean state of medium- and extended-range forecasts (Buizza et al. 1999, Palmer et al. 2009). There is also increasing evidence that stochastic parameterization of unresolved processes could be beneficial for the climate of an atmospheric model through noise enhanced variability, noise-induced drift (Berner et al. 2008), and by enabling the climate simulator to explore other flow regimes (Christensen et al. 2015; Dawson and Palmer 2015). We present results showing the impact of including the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendencies scheme (SPPT) in coupled runs of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model, version 4 (CAM4) with historical forcing. The SPPT scheme accounts for uncertainty in the CAM physical parameterization schemes, including the convection scheme, by perturbing the parametrised temperature, moisture and wind tendencies with a multiplicative noise term. SPPT results in a large improvement in the variability of the CAM4 modeled climate. In particular, SPPT results in a significant improvement to the representation of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation in CAM4, improving the power spectrum, as well as both the inter- and intra-annual variability of tropical pacific sea surface temperatures. References: Berner, J., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., Palmer, T. N., Shutts, G. J., & Weisheimer, A., 2008. Phil. Trans. R. Soc A, 366, 2559-2577 Buizza, R., Miller, M. and Palmer, T. N., 1999. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 125, 2887-2908. Christensen, H. M., I. M. Moroz & T. N. Palmer, 2015. Clim. Dynam., doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2239-9 Dawson, A. and T. N. Palmer, 2015. Clim. Dynam., doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2238-x Palmer, T.N., R. Buizza, F. Doblas-Reyes, et al., 2009, ECMWF technical memorandum 598.

A global satellite-assisted precipitation climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C.; Verdin, A.; Michaelsen, J.; Peterson, P.; Pedreros, D.; Husak, G.

2015-10-01

Accurate representations of mean climate conditions, especially in areas of complex terrain, are an important part of environmental monitoring systems. As high-resolution satellite monitoring information accumulates with the passage of time, it can be increasingly useful in efforts to better characterize the earth's mean climatology. Current state-of-the-science products rely on complex and sometimes unreliable relationships between elevation and station-based precipitation records, which can result in poor performance in food and water insecure regions with sparse observation networks. These vulnerable areas (like Ethiopia, Afghanistan, or Haiti) are often the critical regions for humanitarian drought monitoring. Here, we show that long period of record geo-synchronous and polar-orbiting satellite observations provide a unique new resource for producing high-resolution (0.05°) global precipitation climatologies that perform reasonably well in data-sparse regions. Traditionally, global climatologies have been produced by combining station observations and physiographic predictors like latitude, longitude, elevation, and slope. While such approaches can work well, especially in areas with reasonably dense observation networks, the fundamental relationship between physiographic variables and the target climate variables can often be indirect and spatially complex. Infrared and microwave satellite observations, on the other hand, directly monitor the earth's energy emissions. These emissions often correspond physically with the location and intensity of precipitation. We show that these relationships provide a good basis for building global climatologies. We also introduce a new geospatial modeling approach based on moving window regressions and inverse distance weighting interpolation. This approach combines satellite fields, gridded physiographic indicators, and in situ climate normals. The resulting global 0.05° monthly precipitation climatology, the Climate Hazards Group's Precipitation Climatology version 1 (CHPclim v.1.0, doi:10.15780/G2159X), is shown to compare favorably with similar global climatology products, especially in areas with complex terrain and low station densities.

Atmospheric circulation classification comparison based on wildfires in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, M. G.; Trigo, R. M.

2009-04-01

Atmospheric circulation classifications are not a simple description of atmospheric states but a tool to understand and interpret the atmospheric processes and to model the relation between atmospheric circulation and surface climate and other related variables (Radan Huth et al., 2008). Classifications were initially developed with weather forecasting purposes, however with the progress in computer processing capability, new and more robust objective methods were developed and applied to large datasets prompting atmospheric circulation classification methods to one of the most important fields in synoptic and statistical climatology. Classification studies have been extensively used in climate change studies (e.g. reconstructed past climates, recent observed changes and future climates), in bioclimatological research (e.g. relating human mortality to climatic factors) and in a wide variety of synoptic climatological applications (e.g. comparison between datasets, air pollution, snow avalanches, wine quality, fish captures and forest fires). Likewise, atmospheric circulation classifications are important for the study of the role of weather in wildfire occurrence in Portugal because the daily synoptic variability is the most important driver of local weather conditions (Pereira et al., 2005). In particular, the objective classification scheme developed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000) to classify the atmospheric circulation affecting Portugal have proved to be quite useful in discriminating the occurrence and development of wildfires as well as the distribution over Portugal of surface climatic variables with impact in wildfire activity such as maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. This work aims to present: (i) an overview the existing circulation classification for the Iberian Peninsula, and (ii) the results of a comparison study between these atmospheric circulation classifications based on its relation with wildfires and relevant meteorological variables. To achieve these objectives we consider the main classifications for Iberia developed within the framework of COST action 733 (Radan Huth et al., 2008). This European project aims to provide a wide range of atmospheric circulation classifications for Europe and sub-regions (http://www.cost733.org/) with an ambitious objective of assessing, comparing and classifying all relevant weather situations in Europe. Pereira et al. (2005) "Synoptic patterns associated with large summer forest fires in Portugal". Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,129, 11-25. Radan Huth et al. (2008) "Classifications of Atmospheric circulation patterns. Recent advances and applications". Trends and Directions in Climate Research: Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci. 1146: 105-152. doi: 10.1196/annals.1446.019. Trigo R.M., DaCamara C. (2000) "Circulation Weather Types and their impact on the precipitation regime in Portugal". Int J of Climatology, 20, 1559-1581.

Global carbon budget 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Boden, T. A.; Bopp, L.; Bozec, Y.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Chevallier, F.; Cosca, C. E.; Harris, I.; Hoppema, M.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Johannessen, T.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landa, C. S.; Landschützer, P.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Marland, G.; Mathis, J. T.; Metzl, N.; Nojiri, Y.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Peng, S.; Peters, W.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J. E.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Segschneider, J.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Werf, G. R.; Viovy, N.; Wang, Y.-P.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zeng, N.

2015-05-01

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr-1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870-2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).

Perception as a key component in the development of fire affected land in Eastern Spain. El Massís del Caroig study case

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerdà, Artemi; Pereira, Paulo; Borja, Manuel Estaban Lucas; Keesstra, Saskia; Úbeda, Xavier; Francisco Martínez Murillo, Juan; Muñoz Rojas, Miriam; Oliva, Marc; Novara, Agata

2017-04-01

Land Degradation needs biophysical and socioeconomic research approaches to understand the processes that alter the natural ecosystems by the human societies. Both approaches are relevant also to achieve the development of the societies and reach the sustainability of the land management (Escadafal et al., 2015; Jafari and Bakhshandehmehr, 2016). The opinion of the citizens, their perception of the land degradation and the chances we have to built more sustainable management and societies is less researched than other topics such as soil erosion, climate change, water contamination or lost of biodiversity (Francos et al., 2016; Keesstra et al., 2016; Martínez Murilloet al., 2016; Muñoz Rojas et al., 2016; Ruiz-Fernández et al, 2016; ). Forest fires are part of the Earth System since the plant colonization of the continents, fire is present in all the human societies and fire contributed to shape ecosystems. However, a negative opinion about the fire is found in many modern societies (Marques et al., 2015; Assefa and Hans-Rudolf, 2016; Orchard et al., 2016; Pereira et al., 2016). Forest fires are not a new issue in the Mediterranean due to the traditional use for grazing, agriculture or hunting, but the wildfires are generalized since the abandonment of the land in the last century. The lost of rural population and the mechanisation resulted in a vegetation recovery that triggered large wildfires in the whole North Mediterranean since the 1970´s. The perception of the forest fires by the citizens is very negative in El Massís del Caroig. Since 2012 until 2015 a questionnaire was applied to 188 stakeholders in the region and the results demonstrate that the prescribed fires are negative for any group of the society and they reject the use of prescribed fires. Fire is seen as a problem. Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n 603498 (RECARE project) and the CGL2013- 47862-C2-1-R and CGL2016-75178-C2-2-R national research projects. References Assefa, E., & Hans-Rudolf, B. (2016). Farmers' perception of land degradation and traditional knowledge in southern Ethiopia—Resilience and stability. Land Degradation and Development, 27(6), 1552-1561. doi:10.1002/ldr.2364 Escadafal, R., Barbero-Sierra, C., Exbrayat, W., Marques, M. J., Akhtar-Schuster, M., El Haddadi, A., & Ruiz, M. (2015). First appraisal of the current structure of research on land and soil degradation as evidenced by bibliometric analysis of publications on desertification. Land Degradation and Development, 26(5), 413-422. doi:10.1002/ldr.2351 Francos, M., Úbeda, X., Tort, J., Panareda, J.M., Cerdà, A. 2016. The role of forest fire severity on vegetation recovery after 18 years. Implications for forest management of Quercus suber L. in Iberian Peninsula, Global and Planetary Change,145:11-16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.07.016 Hedo, J., Lucas-Borja, M.E., Wic, C., Andrés-Abellán, M., De Las Heras, J. Soil microbiological properties and enzymatic activities of long-term post-fire recovery in dry and semiarid Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis M.) forest stands. (2015) Solid Earth, 6 (1), pp. 243-252. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/se-6-243-2015 Jafari, R., & Bakhshandehmehr, L. (2016). Quantitative mapping and assessment of environmentally sensitive areas to desertification in central iran. Land Degradation and Development, 27(2), 108-119. doi:10.1002/ldr.2227 Keesstra S, Wittenberg L, Maroulis J, Sambalino F, Malkinson D, Cerdà A, Pereira P. 2016. The influence of fire history, plant species and post-fire management on soil water repellency in a Mediterranean catchment: The Mount Carmel range, Israel. Catena, 149, 857-866. DOI: 10.1016/j.catena.2016.04.006 Marques, M. J., Bienes, R., Cuadrado, J., Ruiz-Colmenero, M., Barbero-Sierra, C., & Velasco, A. (2015). Analysing perceptions attitudes and responses of winegrowers about sustainable land management in central spain. Land Degradation and Development, 26(5), 458-467. doi:10.1002/ldr.2355 Martínez-Murillo, J. F., Hueso-González, P., Ruiz-Sinoga, J. D., & Lavee, H. (2016). Short-term experimental fire effects in soil and water losses in southern of spain. Land Degradation and Development, 27(5), 1513-1522. doi:10.1002/ldr.2504 Muñoz-Rojas, M., Erickson, T.E., Martini, D., Dixon, K.D., Merritt, D.J (2016) Soil physicochemical and microbiological indicators of short, medium and long term post-fire recovery in semi-arid ecosystems. Ecological indicators 63, 14-22, doi: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2015.11.038 Orchard, S. E., Stringer, L. C., & Manyatsi, A. M. (2016). Farmer perceptions and responses to soil degradation in swaziland. Land Degradation and Development, doi:10.1002/ldr.2595 Pereira, P., Mierauskas, P., & Novara, A. (2016). Stakeholders' perceptions about fire impacts on lithuanian protected areas. Land Degradation and Development, 27(4), 871-883. doi:10.1002/ldr.2290 Ruiz-Fernández, J.; Nieuwendam, A.; Oliva, M.; Lopes, V.; Cruces, A. Janeiro, A.; Freitas, C. & López-Sáez, J.A (2016). Cryogenic processes and fire activity in a high Atlantic mountain area in NW Iberia (Picos de Europa) during the Mid-Late Holocene. Science of the Total Environment, doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.03.022.

Multi-scale enhancement of climate prediction over land by improving the model sensitivity to vegetation variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Catalano, F.; De Felice, M.; Hurk, B. V. D.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Miller, P. A.

2017-12-01

Here we demonstrate, for the first time, that the implementation of a realistic representation of vegetation in Earth System Models (ESMs) can significantly improve climate simulation and prediction across multiple time-scales. The effective sub-grid vegetation fractional coverage vary seasonally and at interannual time-scales in response to leaf-canopy growth, phenology and senescence. Therefore it affects biophysical parameters such as the surface resistance to evapotranspiration, albedo, roughness lenght, and soil field capacity. To adequately represent this effect in the EC-Earth ESM, we included an exponential dependence of the vegetation cover on the Leaf Area Index.By comparing two sets of simulations performed with and without the new variable fractional-coverage parameterization, spanning from centennial (20th Century) simulations and retrospective predictions to the decadal (5-years), seasonal (2-4 months) and weather (4 days) time-scales, we show for the first time a significant multi-scale enhancement of vegetation impacts in climate simulation and prediction over land. Particularly large effects at multiple time scales are shown over boreal winter middle-to-high latitudes over Canada, West US, Eastern Europe, Russia and eastern Siberia due to the implemented time-varying shadowing effect by tree-vegetation on snow surfaces. Over Northern Hemisphere boreal forest regions the improved representation of vegetation-cover consistently correct the winter warm biases, improves the climate change sensitivity, the decadal potential predictability as well as the skill of forecasts at seasonal and weather time-scales. Significant improvements of the prediction of 2m temperature and rainfall are also shown over transitional land surface hot spots. Both the potential predictability at decadal time-scale and seasonal-forecasts skill are enhanced over Sahel, North American Great Plains, Nordeste Brazil and South East Asia, mainly related to improved performance in the surface evapotranspiration.Above results are discussed in a peer-review paper just being accepted for publication on Climate Dynamics (Alessandri et al., 2017; doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3766-y).

Assessing potential changes of chestnut productivity in Europe under future climate conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calheiros, T.; Pereira, M. G.; Pinto, J. G.; Caramelo, L.; Gomes-Laranjo, J.; Dacamara, C. C.

2012-04-01

The European chestnut is cultivated for its nuts and wood. Several studies point to the dependency of chestnut productivity on specific soil and climate characteristics. For instance, this species dislikes chalky and poorly drained soils, appreciates sedimentary, siliceous and acidic to neutral soils. Chestnut trees also seems to appreciate annual mean values of sunlight spanning between 2400 and 2600 h, rainfall ranging between 600 and 1500 mm, mean annual temperature between 9 and 13°C, 27°C being the mean of the maximum temperature (Heiniger and Conedera, 1992; Gomes-Laranjo et al.,2008). The amount of heat between May and October must range between 1800°D and 2400°D (Dinis et al., 2011) . In Poland, the growing season is defined as the period of time when the mean 24-h temperature is greater than 5°C (Wilczynski and Podalski, 2007). In Portugal, maximum photosynthetic activity occurs at 24-28°C for adult trees, but exhibits more than 50% of termoinhibition when the air temperature is above 32°C, which is frequent during summer (Gomes- Laranjo et al., 2006, 2008). Recently Pereira et al (2011) identified a set of meteorological variables/parameters with high impact on chestnut productivity. The main purpose of this work is to assess the potential impacts of future climate change on chestnut productivity in Portugal as well as on European chestnut orchards. First, observed data from the European Climate assessment (ECA) and simulations with the Regional Circulation Model (RCM) COSMO-CLM for recent climate conditions are used to assess the ability of the RCM to model the actual meteorological conditions. Then, ensemble projections from the ECHAM5/COSMO-CLM model chain for two climate scenarios (A1B and B1) are used to estimate the values of relevant meteorological variables and parameters und future climate conditions. Simulated values are then compared with those obtained for present climate. Results point to changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of meteorological variables and parameters. In particular, more severe conditions during spring and summer are expected, especially in the Mediterranean area, with less precipitation and higher temperatures. All these changes will have impacts on chestnut fruits and wood in Europe. Dinis, L-T. J., Ferreira-Cardoso, J., Peixoto, F., Costa, R. e Gomes-Laranjo, J., 2011: Study of morphological and chemical diversity in chestnut trees (var. 'Judia') as a function of temperature sum. Cyta- Journal of food, 9(3): 192-199 Gomes-Laranjo et al., 2008: Differences in photosynthetic apparatus of leaves from different sides of chestnut canopy, Photosynthetica, 46, 63-72. Heiniger,U. And Conedera, M., 1992: Chestnut forests and chestnut cultivation in Switzerland. Proceedings of the International Chestnut Conference, West Virginia University, Morgantown, 10-14 July 1992, 175-178. Pereira, M.G., Caramelo, L., Gouveia, C., Gomes-Laranjo, J., Magalhães, M., 2011: Assessment of weather-related risk on chestnut productivity. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1-12, doi:10.5194/nhess-11-12-011. Wilczynski, S. And Podlaski, R, 2007: The effect of climate on radial growth of horse chestnut (Aesculus hippocastanum L.) in the Swietokrzki National Park in Central Poland, J.For.Res., 12, 24-23.

Data citation in climate sciences: Improvements in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stockhause, M.; Lautenschlager, M.

2017-12-01

Within CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) the citation of the data was not possible prior its long-term archival in the IPCC Data Distribution Centre (DDC). The Reference Data Archive for AR5 (Assessment Report 5) was built up after the submission deadline for part 1 of the AR5. This was too late for many scientific articles. But even the AR5 data in the IPCC DDC is rarely cited in literature in spite of annual download volumes between one and three PBytes. On the other hand, the request for a citation possibility for the evolving CMIP6 data prior to long-term archival came from the CMIP6 data providers. The additional provision of data citations for the project input4MIPs (input data for CMIP6) could raise the scientists' awareness of the discrepancy between the readiness to cite data and the desire to be cited and get credit. The CMIP6 Citation Service is a pragmatic approach built on existing services and services under development, such as ESGF (Earth System Grid Federation) as data infrastructure component, DataCite as DOI registration agency, and Scholix services for tracking data usage information. Other principles followed to overcome barriers of data citation are: Collect data and literature references in the data citation metadata to enable data-data and data-literature interlinking. Visibility of data citation information in the ESGF data portals (low barrier to access data citation information) Provide data usage information in literature for the data providers, data node managers and their funders (requested by some ESGF data node managers) The CMIP6 Citation Service is an implementation only of the credit part of the RDA WGDC recommendation for the citation of dynamic data. The second part, the identification of the data subset underlying an article, is planned for CMIP7 as a data cart approach comprising multiple pre-defined CMIP6 DataCite DOIs. Additional policies on the long-term data availability are required. References: M. Stockhause and M. Lautenschlager (2017). CMIP6 Data Citation of Evolving Data. Data Science Journal. 16, p.30. doi:10.5334/dsj-2017-030. https://doi.org/10.5334/dsj-2017-030 . http://cmip6cite.wdc-climate.de

Is ice-rafted sediment in a North Pole marine record evidence for perennial sea-ice cover?

PubMed

Tremblay, L B; Schmidt, G A; Pfirman, S; Newton, R; DeRepentigny, P

2015-10-13

Ice-rafted sediments of Eurasian and North American origin are found consistently in the upper part (13 Ma BP to present) of the Arctic Coring Expedition (ACEX) ocean core from the Lomonosov Ridge, near the North Pole (≈88° N). Based on modern sea-ice drift trajectories and speeds, this has been taken as evidence of the presence of a perennial sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean from the middle Miocene onwards (Krylov et al. 2008 Paleoceanography 23, PA1S06. (doi:10.1029/2007PA001497); Darby 2008 Paleoceanography 23, PA1S07. (doi:10.1029/2007PA001479)). However, other high latitude land and marine records indicate a long-term trend towards cooling broken by periods of extensive warming suggestive of a seasonally ice-free Arctic between the Miocene and the present (Polyak et al. 2010 Quaternary Science Reviews 29, 1757-1778. (doi:10.1016/j.quascirev.2010.02.010)). We use a coupled sea-ice slab-ocean model including sediment transport tracers to map the spatial distribution of ice-rafted deposits in the Arctic Ocean. We use 6 hourly wind forcing and surface heat fluxes for two different climates: one with a perennial sea-ice cover similar to that of the present day and one with seasonally ice-free conditions, similar to that simulated in future projections. Model results confirm that in the present-day climate, sea ice takes more than 1 year to transport sediment from all its peripheral seas to the North Pole. However, in a warmer climate, sea-ice speeds are significantly faster (for the same wind forcing) and can deposit sediments of Laptev, East Siberian and perhaps also Beaufort Sea origin at the North Pole. This is primarily because of the fact that sea-ice interactions are much weaker with a thinner ice cover and there is less resistance to drift. We conclude that the presence of ice-rafted sediment of Eurasian and North American origin at the North Pole does not imply a perennial sea-ice cover in the Arctic Ocean, reconciling the ACEX ocean core data with other land and marine records. © 2015 The Author(s).

U.S. Geological Survey activities related to American Indians and Alaska Natives: Fiscal years 2007 and 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marcus, Susan M.

2010-01-01

In the late 1800s, John Wesley Powell, the second director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), followed his interest in the tribes of the Great Basin and Colorado Plateau and studied their cultures, languages, and surroundings. From that early time, the USGS has recognized the importance of Native knowledge and living in harmony with nature as complements to the USGS mission to better understand the Earth. Combining traditional ecological knowledge with empirical studies allows the USGS and Native American governments, organizations, and people to increase their mutual understanding and respect for this land. The USGS is the earth and natural science bureau within the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) and is not responsible for regulations or land management. Climate change is a major current issue affecting Native lives and traditions throughout the United States. Climate projections for the coming century indicate an increasing probability for more frequent and more severe droughts in the Southwest, including the Navajo Nation. Erosion has claimed Native homes in Alaska. Fish have become inedible due to diseases that turn their flesh mushy. Native people who rely on or who are culturally sustained by hunting, fishing, and using local plants are living with climate change now. The traditional knowledge of Native peoples enriches and confirms the work of USGS scientists. The results are truly synergistic-greater than the sum of their parts. Traditional ecological knowledge is respected and increasingly used in USGS studies-when the holders of that knowledge choose to share it. The USGS respects the rights of Native people to maintain their patrimony of traditional ecological knowledge. The USGS studies can help Tribes, Native organizations, and natural resource professionals manage Native lands and resources with the best available unbiased data and information that can be added to their traditional knowledge. Wise Native leaders have noted that traditional ecological knowledge includes the connections between Earth and her denizens. From this perspective, it is the connections among these ?relatives? that needs to be nurtured. This perspective on nature is finding new adherents among Natives and non-Natives as understanding of climate change and other environmental conditions deepens. Although this report uses the term ?resources,? the USGS, through its interdisciplinary research, acknowledges the interconnectedness of the Earth and the things that live upon it.

Ice-Sheet Dynamics and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the North Atlantic across the Middle Pleistocene Transition (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodell, D. A.; Nicholl, J.

2013-12-01

During the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT), the climate system evolved from a more linear response to insolation forcing in the '41-kyr world' to one that was decidedly non-linear in the '100-kyr world'. Smaller ice sheets in the early Pleistocene gave way to larger ice sheets in the late Pleistocene with an accompanying change in ice sheet dynamics. We studied Sites U1308 (49° 52.7'N, 24° 14.3'W; 3871 m) and U1304 (53° 3.4'N, 33° 31.8'W; 3024 m) in the North Atlantic to determine how ice sheet dynamics and millennial-scale climate variability evolved as glacial boundary conditions changed across the MPT. The frequency of ice-rafted detritus (IRD) in the North Atlantic was greater during glacial stages prior to 650 ka (MIS 16), reflecting more frequent crossing of an ice volume threshold when the climate system spent more time in the 'intermediate ice volume' window, resulting in persistent millennial scale variability. The rarity of Heinrich Events containing detrital carbonate and more frequent occurrence of IRD events prior to 650 ka may indicate the presence of 'low-slung, slippery ice sheets' that flowed more readily than their post-MPT counterparts (Bailey et al., 2010). Ice volume surpassed a critical threshold across the MPT that permitted ice sheets to survive boreal summer insolation maxima, thereby increasing ice volume and thickness, lengthening glacial cycles, and activating the dynamical processes responsible for Laurentide Ice Sheet instability in the region of Hudson Strait (i.e., Heinrich events). The excess ice volume during post-MPT glacial maxima provided a large, unstable reservoir of freshwater to be released to the North Atlantic during glacial terminations with the potential to perturb Atlantic Meridional Overtunring Circulation. We speculate that orbital- and millennial-scale variability co-evolved across the MPT and the interaction of processes on orbital and suborbital time scales gave rise to the changing patterns of glacial-interglacial cycles through the Quaternary. Bailey, I., Bolton, C.T., DeConto, R.M., Pollard, D., Schiebel, R. and Wilson, P.A. (2010) A low threshold for North Atlantic ice rafting from "low-slung slippery" late Pliocene ice sheets. Paleoceanography, 25, PA1212-[14pp]. (doi:10.1029/2009PA001736).

Impacts of light-absorbing impurities on snow and their quantification with bidirectional reflectance measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gritsevich, Maria; Peltoniemi, Jouni; Meinander, Outi; Dagsson-Waldhauserová, Pavla; Zubko, Nataliya; Hakala, Teemu; Virkkula, Aki; Svensson, Jonas; de Leeuw, Gerrit

2017-04-01

In order to quantify the effects of absorbing impurities on snow and define their contribution to the climate change, we have conducted a series of dedicated bidirectional reflectance measurements. Chimney soot, volcanic sand, and glaciogenic silt have been deposited on the snow in the controlled way. The bidirectional reflectance factors of these targets and untouched snow have been measured using the Finnish Geodetic Institute's field goniospectrometer FIGIFIGO, see, e.g., [1, 2] and references therein. It has been found that the contaminants darken the snow, and modify its appearance mostly as expected, with clear directional signal and modest spectral signal. A remarkable feature is the fact that any absorbing contaminant on snow enhances the metamorphosis under strong sunlight [3, 4]. Immediately after deposition, the contaminated snow surface appears darker than the pure snow in all viewing directions, but the heated soot particles start sinking down deeply into the snow in minutes. The nadir measurement remains darkest, but at larger zenith angles the surface of the soot-contaminated snow changes back to almost as white as clean snow. Thus, for on ground observer the darkening by impurities can be completely invisible, overestimating the albedo, but a nadir looking satellite sees the darkest points, now underestimating the albedo. After more time, also the nadir view brightens, and the remaining impurities may be biased towards more shadowed locations or less absorbing orientations by natural selection. This suggests that at noon the albedo should be lower than in the morning or afternoon. When sunlight stimulates more sinking than melting, albedo should be higher in the afternoon than in the morning, and vice versa when melting is dominating. Thus to estimate the effects caused by black carbon (BC) deposited on snow on climate changes may one need to take into account possible rapid diffusion of the BC inside the snow from its surface. When the snow melt rate gets faster than the diffusion rate (under condition of warm outside temperatures), as it was observed at the end of the experiment reported here, dark material starts accumulating into the surface [5]. The BC deposited on snow at warm temperatures initiates rapid melting process and may cause dramatic changes on the snow surface. References 1 Peltoniemi J.I., Hakala T., Suomalainen J., Honkavaara E., Markelin L., Gritsevich M., Eskelinen J., Jaanson P., Ikonen E. (2014): Technical notes: A detailed study for the provision of measurement uncertainty and traceability for goniospectrometers. Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy & Radiative Transfer 146, 376-390, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jqsrt.2014.04.011 2 Zubko N., Gritsevich M., Zubko E., Hakala T., Peltoniemi J.I. (2016): Optical measurements of chemically heterogeneous particulate surfaces // Journal of Quantitative Spectroscopy and Radiative Transfer, 178, 422-431, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jqsrt.2015.12.010 3 Peltoniemi J.I., Gritsevich M., Hakala T., Dagsson-Waldhauserová P., Arnalds Ó., Anttila K., Hannula H.-R., Kivekäs N., Lihavainen H., Meinander O., Svensson J., Virkkula A., de Leeuw G. (2015): Soot on snow exper- iment: bidirectional reflectance factor measurements of contaminated snow // The Cryosphere, 9, 2323-2337, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2323-2015 4 Svensson J., Virkkula A., Meinander O., Kivekäs N., Hannula H.-R., Järvinen O., Peltoniemi J.I., Gritsevich M., Heikkilä A., Kontu A., Neitola K., Brus D., Dagsson-Waldhauserova P., Anttila K., Vehkamäki M., Hienola A., de Leeuw G. & Lihavainen H. (2016): Soot-doped natural snow and its albedo — results from field experiments. Boreal Environment Research, 21, 481-503, http://www.borenv.net/BER/pdfs/preprints/Svensson1498.pdf 5 Meinander O., Kontu A., Virkkula A., Arola A., Backman L., Dagsson-Waldhauserová P., Järvinen O., Manninen T., Svensson J., de Leeuw G., and Leppäranta M. (2014): Brief communication: Light-absorbing impurities can reduce the density of melting snow, The Cryosphere, 8, 991-995, doi:10.5194/tc-8-991-2014.

Global carbon budget 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Quéré, C.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Andrew, R. M.; Boden, T. A.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Houghton, R. A.; Marland, G.; Moriarty, R.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Arvanitis, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Bopp, L.; Canadell, J. G.; Chini, L. P.; Doney, S. C.; Harper, A.; Harris, I.; House, J. I.; Jain, A. K.; Jones, S. D.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Körtzinger, A.; Koven, C.; Lefèvre, N.; Maignan, F.; Omar, A.; Ono, T.; Park, G.-H.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schwinger, J.; Segschneider, J.; Stocker, B. D.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van Heuven, S.; Viovy, N.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.

2014-06-01

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and assuming an ELUC of 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 (based on the 2001-2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003-2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1-3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870-2013, about 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_V2.3).

Simulating the complex output of rainfall and hydrological processes using the information contained in large data sets: the Direct Sampling approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oriani, Fabio

2017-04-01

The unpredictable nature of rainfall makes its estimation as much difficult as it is essential to hydrological applications. Stochastic simulation is often considered a convenient approach to asses the uncertainty of rainfall processes, but preserving their irregular behavior and variability at multiple scales is a challenge even for the most advanced techniques. In this presentation, an overview on the Direct Sampling technique [1] and its recent application to rainfall and hydrological data simulation [2, 3] is given. The algorithm, having its roots in multiple-point statistics, makes use of a training data set to simulate the outcome of a process without inferring any explicit probability measure: the data are simulated in time or space by sampling the training data set where a sufficiently similar group of neighbor data exists. This approach allows preserving complex statistical dependencies at different scales with a good approximation, while reducing the parameterization to the minimum. The straights and weaknesses of the Direct Sampling approach are shown through a series of applications to rainfall and hydrological data: from time-series simulation to spatial rainfall fields conditioned by elevation or a climate scenario. In the era of vast databases, is this data-driven approach a valid alternative to parametric simulation techniques? [1] Mariethoz G., Renard P., and Straubhaar J. (2010), The Direct Sampling method to perform multiple-point geostatistical simulations, Water. Rerous. Res., 46(11), http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008WR007621 [2] Oriani F., Straubhaar J., Renard P., and Mariethoz G. (2014), Simulation of rainfall time series from different climatic regions using the direct sampling technique, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 3015-3031, http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-3015-2014 [3] Oriani F., Borghi A., Straubhaar J., Mariethoz G., Renard P. (2016), Missing data simulation inside flow rate time-series using multiple-point statistics, Environ. Model. Softw., vol. 86, pp. 264 - 276, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.10.002

Description of Mixed-Phase Clouds in Weather Forecast and Climate Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

deficits, leading to freeze-up of both sea ice and the ocean surface. The surface albedo and processes impacting the energy content of the upper ocean...appear key to producing a temporal difference be- tween the freeze-up of the sea - ice surface and adjacent open water. While synoptic conditions, atmos...Leck, 2013: Cloud and boundary layer interactions over the Arctic sea - ice in late summer, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 13191-13244, doi

Development and Utilization of Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). Delicacy, Imprecision, and Uncertainty of Oceanic Simulations: An Investigation with the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS). Mixing in the Ocean Surface Layer Using the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS).

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

community use for ROMS is biogeochemisty: chemical cycles, water quality, blooms , micro-nutrients, larval dispersal, biome transitions, and coupling to...J.C. McWilliams, X. Capet, and J. Kurian, 2010: Heat balance and eddies in the Peru- Chile Current System. Climate Dynamics, 37, in press. doi10.1007

Real time assessment of the 15 July 2009 New Zealand tsunami

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uslu, Burak; Power, William; Greensdale, Dianne; Titov, Vasily

2010-05-01

On the 15th July 2009 a Mw 7.6 earthquake occurred off the coast of Fiordland in the South Island of New Zealand, about 1200 km from Auckland, New Zealand, 1500 km from Hobart, Tasmania and 1800 km from Sydney, Australia. A tsunami was generated and an initial warning issued by the PTWC. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate issued its first tsunami warning for coastal regions of eastern Australia and New Zealand 24 minutes after the earthquake. By serendipitous coincidence, the earthquake struck while the International Tsunami Symposium was in session in Novosibirsk Russia. This provided the opportunity to test, in real-time, several tsunami warning systems in front of attending scientists (Schiermeier, 2009). NOAA Center for Tsunami Research, Pacific Tsunami Warning Center, GNS Science, and Centre for Australian Weather and Climate scientists were present at the symposium and worked together. Vasily Titov showed "live" NOAA's methodology (Bernard et al, 2006) to assess the tsunami potential and, in consultation with colleagues, provided warning guidance, and the warning was eventually canceled. We discuss how the forecast was done and how accurate the initial determination was. References Bernard E.N. et al., 2006, Tsunami: scientific frontiers, mitigation, forecasting and policy implications, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 364:1989-2007; doi:10.1098/rsta.2006.1809 Schiermeier, Q., 2009, Tsunami forecast in real time, Published online 16 July 2009 | Nature | doi:10.1038/news.2009.702

Pollen-based reconstruction of Holocene climate variability in the Eifel region evaluated with stable isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kühl, Norbert; Moschen, Robert; Wagner, Stefanie

2010-05-01

Pollen as well as stable isotopes have great potential as climate proxy data. While variability in these proxy data is frequently assumed to reflect climate variability, other factors than climate, including human impact and statistical noise, can often not be excluded as primary cause for the observed variability. Multiproxy studies offer the opportunity to test different drivers by providing different lines of evidence for environmental change such as climate variability and human impact. In this multiproxy study we use pollen and peat humification to evaluate to which extent stable oxygen and carbon isotope series from the peat bog "Dürres Maar" reflect human impact rather than climate variability. For times before strong anthropogenic vegetation change, isotope series from Dürres Maar were used to validate quantitative reconstructions based on pollen. Our study site is the kettle hole peat bog "Dürres Maar" in the Eifel low mountain range, Germany (450m asl), which grew 12m during the last 10,000 years. Pollen was analysed with a sum of at least 1000 terrestrial pollen grains throughout the profile to minimize statistical effects on the reconstructions. A recently developed probabilistic indicator taxa method ("pdf-method") was used for the quantitative climate estimates (January and July temperature) based on pollen. For isotope analysis, attention was given to use monospecific Sphagnum leaves whenever possible, reducing the potential of a species effect and any potential artefact that can originate from selective degradation of different morphological parts of Sphagnum plants (Moschen et al., 2009). Pollen at "Dürres Maar" reflect the variable and partly strong human impact on vegetation during the last 4000 years. Stable isotope time series were apparently not influenced by human impact at this site. This highlights the potential of stable isotope investigations from peat for climatic interpretation, because stable isotope series from lacustrine sediments might strongly react to anthropogenic deforestation, as carbon isotope time series from the adjacent Lake Holzmaar suggest. Reconstructions based on pollen with the pdf-method are robust to the human impact during the last 4000 years, but do not reproduce the fine scale climate variability that can be derived from the stable isotope series (Kühl et al., in press). In contrast, reconstructions on the basis of pollen data show relatively pronounced climate variability (here: January temperature) during the Mid-Holocene, which is known from many other European records. The oxygen isotope time series as available now indicate that at least some of the observed variability indeed reflects climate variability. However, stable carbon isotopes show little concordance. At this stage our results point in the direction that 1) the isotopic composition might reflect a shift in influencing factors during the Holocene, 2) climate trends can robustly be reconstructed with the pdf method and 3) fine scale climate variability can potentially be reconstructed using the pdf-method, given that climate sensitive taxa at their distribution limit are present. The latter two conclusions are of particular importance for the reconstruction of climatic trends and variability of interglacials older than the Holocene, when sites are rare and pollen is often the only suitable proxy in terrestrial records. Kühl, N., Moschen, R., Wagner, S., Brewer, S., Peyron, O., in press. A multiproxy record of Late Holocene natural and anthropogenic environmental change from the Sphagnum peat bog Dürres Maar, Germany: implications for quantitative climate reconstructions based on pollen. J. Quat. Sci., DOI: 10.1002/jqs.1342. Available online. Moschen, R., Kühl, N., Rehberger, I., Lücke, A., 2009. Stable carbon and oxygen isotopes in sub-fossil Sphagnum: Assessment of their applicability for palaeoclimatology. Chemical Geology 259, 262-272.

Impact of CO2 and continental configuration on Late Cretaceous ocean dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puceat, Emmanuelle; Donnadieu, Yannick; Moiroud, Mathieu; Guillocheau, François; Deconinck, Jean-François

2014-05-01

The Late Cretaceous period is characterized by a long-term climatic cooling (Huber et al., 1995; Pucéat et al., 2003; Friedrich et al., 2012) and by major changes in continental configuration with the widening of the Atlantic Ocean, the initiation of the Tethyan ocean closure, and the deepening of the Central Atlantic Gateway. The Late Cretaceous also marks the end of the occurrence of Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs), that are associated to enhanced organic carbon burial, to major crises of calcifying organisms, and to possible ocean acidification (Jenkyns, 2010). It has been suggested that the evolution in continental configuration and climate occurring during the Late Cretaceous could have induced a reorganization in the oceanic circulation, that may have impacted the oxygenation state of the oceanic basins and contributed to the disappearance of OAEs (Robinson et al., 2010; Robinson and Vance, 2012). Yet there is no consensus existing on the oceanic circulation modes and on their possible evolution during the Late Cretaceous, despite recent improvement of the spatial and temporal coverage of neodymium isotopic data (ɛNd), a proxy of oceanic circulation (MacLeod et al., 2008; Robinson et al., 2010; Murphy and Thomas, 2012; Robinson and Vance, 2012; Martin et al., 2012; Moiroud et al., 2012). Using the fully coupled ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Model FOAM, we explore in this work the impact on oceanic circulation of changes in continental configuration between the mid- and latest Cretaceous. Two paleogeography published by Sewall et al. (2007) were used, for the Cenomanian/Turonian boundary and for the Maastrichtian. For each paleogeography, 3 simulations have been realized, at 2x, 4x, and 8x the pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 level, in order to test the sensitivity of the modelled circulation to CO2. Our results show for both continental configurations a bipolar mode for the oceanic circulation displayed by FOAM. Using the Cenomanian/Turonian land-sea mask, two major areas of deep-water production are simulated in the model, one located in the northern and northwestern Pacific area, and the other located in the southern Pacific. An additional area is present in the southern Atlantic Ocean, near the modern Weddell Sea area, but remains very limited. Using the Maastrichtian land-sea mask, the simulations show a major change in the ocean dynamic with the disappearance of the southern Pacific convection cell. The northern Pacific area of deep-water production is reduced to the northwestern Pacific region only. By contrast, the simulations show a marked development of the southern Atlantic deep-water production, that intensifies and extends eastward along the Antarctic coast. These southern Atlantic deep-waters are conveyed northward into the North Atlantic and eastward to the Indian Ocean. Importantly, changes in atmospheric CO2 level do not impact the oceanic circulation simulated by FOAM, at least in the range of tested values. The circulation simulated by FOAM is coherent with existing ɛNd data for the two studied periods and support an intensification of southern Atlantic deep-water production along with a reversal of the deep-water fluxes through the Carribean Seaway as the main causes of the decrease in ɛNd values recorded in the Atlantic and Indian deep-waters during the Late Cretaceous. The simulations reveal a change from a sluggish circulation in the south Atlantic simulated with the Cenomanian/Turonian paleogeography to a much more active circulation in this basin using the Maastrichtian paleogeography, that may have favoured the disappearance of OAEs after the Late Cretaceous. Friedrich, O., Norris, R.D., Erbacher, J., 2012. Evolution of middle to Late Cretaceous oceans - A 55 m.y. record of Earth's temperature and carbon cycle. Geology 40 (2), 107-110. Huber, B.T., Hodell, D.A., Hamilton, C.P., 1995. Middle-Late Cretaceous climate of the southern high latitudes: stable isotopic evidence for minimal equator-to-pole thermal gradients. Geol. Soc. of Am. Bull. 107, 1164-1191. Jenkyns, H.C., 2010. Geochemistry of oceanic anoxic events. Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems 11, doi:10.1029/2009GC002788. MacLeod, K.G., Martin, E.E., Blair, S.W., 2008. Nd isotopic excursion across Cretaceous Ocean Anoxic Event 2 (Cenomanian-Turonian) in the tropical North Atlantic. Geology 36 (10), 811-814. Martin, E.E., MacLeod, K.G., Jiménez Berrocoso, Á., Bourbon, E., 2012. Water mass circulation on Demerara Rise during the Late Cretaceous based on Nd isotopes. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 327-328, 111-120. Moiroud, M., Pucéat, E., Donnadieu, Y., Bayon, G., Moriya, K., Deconinck, J.F., and Boyet, M., 2012. Evolution of the neodymium isotopic signature of neritic seawater on a northwestern Pacific margin: new constrains on possible end-members for the composition of deep-water masses in the Late Cretaceous ocean. Chemical Geology 356, p. 160-170. Murphy, D.P., Thomas, D.J., 2012. Cretaceous deep-water formation in the Indian sector of the Southern Ocean. Paleoceanography 27, doi:10.1029/2011PA002198. Pucéat, E., Lécuyer, C., Sheppard, S.M.F., Dromart, G., Reboulet, S., Grandjean, P., 2003. Thermal evolution of Cretaceous Tethyan marine waters inferred from oxygen isotope composition of fish tooth enamels. Paleoceanography 18 (2), doi:10.1029/2002PA000823. Robinson, A., Murphy, D.P., Vance, D., Thomas, D.J., 2010. Formation of 'Southern Component Water' in the Late Cretaceous: evidence from Nd-isotopes. Geological Society of America 38 (10), 871-874 Robinson, S.A., Vance, D., 2012. Widespread and synchronous change in deep-ocean circulation in the North and South Atlantic during the Late Cretaceous. Paleoceanography 27, PA1102, doi:10.1029/2011PA002240. Sewall, J.O., van de Wal, R.S.W., can der Zwan, K., van Oosterhout, C., Dijkstra, H.A., and Scotese, C.R., 2007. Climate model boundary conditions for four Cretaceous time slices. Clim. Past 3, p. 647-657.

Global Carbon Budget 2017

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Quéré, Corinne; Andrew, Robbie M.; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Sitch, Stephen; Pongratz, Julia; Manning, Andrew C.; Korsbakken, Jan Ivar; Peters, Glen P.; Canadell, Josep G.; Jackson, Robert B.; Boden, Thomas A.; Tans, Pieter P.; Andrews, Oliver D.; Arora, Vivek K.; Bakker, Dorothee C. E.; Barbero, Leticia; Becker, Meike; Betts, Richard A.; Bopp, Laurent; Chevallier, Frédéric; Chini, Louise P.; Ciais, Philippe; Cosca, Catherine E.; Cross, Jessica; Currie, Kim; Gasser, Thomas; Harris, Ian; Hauck, Judith; Haverd, Vanessa; Houghton, Richard A.; Hunt, Christopher W.; Hurtt, George; Ilyina, Tatiana; Jain, Atul K.; Kato, Etsushi; Kautz, Markus; Keeling, Ralph F.; Klein Goldewijk, Kees; Körtzinger, Arne; Landschützer, Peter; Lefèvre, Nathalie; Lenton, Andrew; Lienert, Sebastian; Lima, Ivan; Lombardozzi, Danica; Metzl, Nicolas; Millero, Frank; Monteiro, Pedro M. S.; Munro, David R.; Nabel, Julia E. M. S.; Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro; Nojiri, Yukihiro; Padin, X. Antonio; Peregon, Anna; Pfeil, Benjamin; Pierrot, Denis; Poulter, Benjamin; Rehder, Gregor; Reimer, Janet; Rödenbeck, Christian; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Stocker, Benjamin D.; Tian, Hanqin; Tilbrook, Bronte; Tubiello, Francesco N.; van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T.; van der Werf, Guido R.; van Heuven, Steven; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Walker, Anthony P.; Watson, Andrew J.; Wiltshire, Andrew J.; Zaehle, Sönke; Zhu, Dan

2018-03-01

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere - the global carbon budget - is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007-2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr-1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr-1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr-1, with a small BIM of -0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007-2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6-9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).

A Long-Term and Reproducible Passive Microwave Sea Ice Concentration Data Record for Climate Studies and Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peng, G.; Meier, W. N.; Scott, D. J.; Savoie, M. H.

2013-01-01

A long-term, consistent, and reproducible satellite-based passive microwave sea ice concentration climate data record (CDR) is available for climate studies, monitoring, and model validation with an initial operation capability (IOC). The daily and monthly sea ice concentration data are on the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) polar stereographic grid with nominal 25 km × 25 km grid cells in both the Southern and Northern Hemisphere polar regions from 9 July 1987 to 31 December 2007. The data files are available in the NetCDF data format at http://nsidc.org/data/g02202.html and archived by the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) under the satellite climate data record program (http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdr/operationalcdrs.html). The description and basic characteristics of the NOAA/NSIDC passive microwave sea ice concentration CDR are presented here. The CDR provides similar spatial and temporal variability as the heritage products to the user communities with the additional documentation, traceability, and reproducibility that meet current standards and guidelines for climate data records. The data set, along with detailed data processing steps and error source information, can be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.7265/N5B56GN3.

Damage-reducing measures to manage flood risks in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kreibich, Heidi; Bubeck, Philip; Van Vliet, Mathijs; De Moel, Hans

2014-05-01

Damage due to floods has increased during the last few decades, and further increases are expected in several regions due to climate change and a growing vulnerability. To address the projected increase in flood risk, a combination of structural and non-structural flood risk mitigation measures is considered as a promising adaptation strategy. Such a combination takes into account that flood defence systems may fail, and prepare for unexpected crisis situations via land-use planning, building construction, evacuation and disaster response. Non-structural flood risk mitigation measures like shielding with water shutters or sand bags, building fortification or safeguarding of hazardous substances are often voluntary: they demand self-dependent action by the population at risk (Bubeck et al. 2012; 2013). It is believed that these measures are especially effective in areas with frequent flood events and low flood water levels, but some types of measures showed a significant damage-reducing effect also during extreme flood events, such as the Elbe River flood in August 2002 in Germany (Kreibich et al. 2005; 2011). Despite the growing importance of damage-reducing measures, information is still scarce about factors that motivate people to undertake such measures, the state of implementation of various non-structural measures in different countries and their damage reducing effects. Thus, we collected information and undertook an international review about this topic in the framework of the Dutch KfC project "Climate proof flood risk management". The contribution will present an overview about the available information on damage-reducing measures and draw conclusions for practical flood risk management in a changing climate. References: Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Suu, L. T. T., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2012): Do flood risk perceptions provide useful insights for flood risk management? Findings from central Vietnam. Journal of Flood Risk Management, 5, 4, 295-302 Bubeck, P., Botzen, W. J. W., Kreibich, H., Aerts, J. C. J. H. (2013) Detailed insights into the influence of flood-coping appraisals on mitigation behaviour. Global Environmental Change. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2013.05.009. Kreibich, H., Thieken, A. H., Petrow, T., Müller, M., Merz, B. (2005): Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures - Lessons Learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002. NHESS, 5, 1, 117-126. Kreibich, H., Christenberger, S., Schwarze, R. (2011) Economic motivation of households to undertake private precautionary measures against floods. NHESS, 11, 2, 309-321.

A Demonstration of an Improved Filtering Technique for Analyzing Climate Records via Comparisons of Satellite MSU/AMSU Instrument Temperature Products from Three Research Groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swanson, R. E.

2017-12-01

Climate data records typically exhibit considerable variation over short time scales both from natural variability and from instrumentation issues. The use of linear least squares regression can provide overall trend information from noisy data, however assessing intermediate time periods can also provide useful information unavailable from basic trend calculations. Extracting the short term information in these data for assessing changes to climate or for comparison of data series from different sources requires the application of filters to separate short period variations from longer period trends. A common method used to smooth data is the moving average, which is a simple digital filter that can distort the resulting series due to the aliasing of the sampling period into the output series. We utilized Hamming filters to compare MSU/AMSU satellite time series developed by three research groups (UAH, RSS and NOAA STAR), the results published in January 2017 [http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JTECH-D-16-0121.1]. Since the last release date (July 2016) for the data analyzed in that paper, some of these groups have updated their analytical procedures and additional months of data are available to extend the series. An updated analysis of these data using the latest data releases available from each group is to be presented. Improved graphics will be employed to provide a clearer visualization of the differences between each group's results. As in the previous paper, the greatest difference between the UAH TMT series and those from the RSS and NOAA data appears during the early period of data from the MSU instruments before about 2003, as shown in the attached figure, and preliminary results indicate this pattern continues. Also to be presented are other findings regarding seasonal changes which were not included in the previous study.

High resolution multi-scalar drought indices for Iberia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia; Trigo, Ricardo; Jerez, Sonia

2014-05-01

The Iberian Peninsula has been recurrently affected by drought episodes and by adverse associated effects (Gouveia et al., 2009), ranging from severe water shortages to losses of hydroelectricity production, increasing risk of forest fires, forest decline and triggering processes of land degradation and desertification. Moreover, Iberia corresponds to one of the most sensitive areas to current and future climate change and is nowadays considered a hot spot of climate change with high probability for the increase of extreme events (Giorgi and Lionello, 2008). The spatial and temporal behavior of climatic droughts at different time scales was analyzed using spatially distributed time series of multi-scalar drought indicators, such as the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente-Serrano et al., 2010). This new climatic drought index is based on the simultaneous use of precipitation and temperature fields with the advantage of combining a multi-scalar character with the capacity to include the effects of temperature variability on drought assessment. Moreover, reanalysis data and the higher resolution hindcasted databases obtained from them are valuable surrogates of the sparse observations and widely used for in-depth characterizations of the present-day climate. Accordingly, this work aims to enhance the knowledge on high resolution drought patterns in Iberian Peninsula, taking advantage of high-resolution (10km) regional MM5 simulations of the recent past (1959-2007) over Iberia. It should be stressed that these high resolution meteorological fields (e.g. temperature, precipitation) have been validated for various purposes (Jerez et al., 2013). A detailed characterization of droughts since the 1960s using the 10 km resolution hidncasted simulation was performed with the aim to explore the conditions favoring drought onset, duration and ending, as well as the subsequent short, medium and long-term impacts affecting the environment and the human resources. The understanding of the present-day underlying mechanisms together with the necessary contextualization within a wider past, is essential to understand future projections, and should lastly rebound on the adequacy of the management decision making. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAG-GLO/4155/2012) Gouveia C., Trigo R.M., DaCamara C.C. (2009) Drought and Vegetation Stress Monitoring in Portugal using Satellite Data, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9, 1-11. Giorgi, F. and Lionello, P.; Climate change projections for the Mediterranean region. Global and Planetary Change, 63 (2-3): 90-104, 2008. Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Santiago Beguería, Juan I. López-Moreno, 2010: A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J. Climate, 23, 1696-1718. Jerez, S., R.M. Trigo, S.M. Vicente-Serrano, D. Pozo-Vázquez, R. Lorente-Plazas, J. Lorenzo-Lacruz, F. Santos-Alamillos and J.P. Montávez (2013). The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the renewable energy resources in south-western Europe. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, DOI 10.1175/JAMC-D-12-0257.1.

The Batagay permafrost mega thaw slump: an environmental archive of the Late Pleistocene continental climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashastina, Kseniia; Kienast, Frank; Römermann, Christine; Kuzmina, Svetlana; Diekmann, Bernhard; Schirrmeister, Lutz

2017-04-01

Palaeoenvironmental data preserved in permafrost contribute in our understanding of climate changes and their influence on the biocenoses during the Late Quaternary. Here we present cryolithological and palaeoecological results of studies carried out on a newly described permafrost exposure near Batagay about 50 km from Verkhoyansk, Sakha Republic, Russia, the town with the most continental climate recorded in the northern hemisphere. According to Günther et al. (2015), this unique exposure is the biggest mega thaw slump measured so far with the dimensions 800 m wide and 73 m deep. Only sparse data on the exposure are so far published in few articles (Novgorodov et al., 2013; Kunitsky et al., 2013; Ashastina et al., in press; Murton et al., 2016). The site is situated inWest Beringia, the Late Quaternary landmasscovered by tundra steppe and inhabited by diverse mega herbivores. We analyzed sedimentological data, plant macro- and micro-fossils together with insect remains in order to reconstruct the changes in the biome. The temporal frame for the accumulation of the sequence is provided by radiocarbon and optical stimulated luminescence dating, according to which the formation of the sequence started in the late Middle Quaternary. The features of permafrost accumulation and sedimentation give us an opportunity to propose the landscape changes responding to the climatic pulses of Pleistocene at this particular place. The shifts in vegetation from taiga to steppe associations are in a line with stadial and intersadial events. We propose a scheme of permafrost state and vegetation changes and merge it with climate variation during Late Quaternary. Ashastina, K., Schirrmeister, L., Fuchs, M., Kienast, F.: Pleistocene climate characteristics in the most continental part of the northern hemisphere: insights from cryolithological features of the Batagay mega thaw slump in the Siberian Yana Highlands. Climate of the Past, in press. doi: 10.5194/cp-2016-84. Günther, F., Grosse, G., Wetterich, S., Jones, B.M., Kunitsky, V.V., Kienast, F. and Schirrmeister, L.: The Batagay mega thaw slump, Yana Uplands, Yakutia, Russia: Permafrost thaw dynamics on decadal time scale. Abstract, Past Gateways, III international Conference and Workshop, 18-22 May 2015, Potsdam, Germany, 2015. Kunitsky, V.V., Syromyatnikov, I.I., Schirrmeister, L., Skachkov, Yu.B., Grosse, G., Wetterich, S. and Grigoriev, M.N.: Ice-rich and thermal denudation in the Batagay area (Yana upland, East Siberia), KriospheraZemli, XVII, № 1, 56-68 (in Russian), 2013. Novgorodov, G.P., Grigorev, S.E., and Cheprasov, M.Y.: Prospective location of the mammoth fauna in the River Basin Yana, International journal of applied and fundamental research 8, 2013. Murton, J. B., Edwards, M.E., Lozhkin, A. V., Anderson, P.M., Bakulina, N., Bondarenko, O. V., Cherepanova, M., Danilov, P.P., Boeskorov V., Goslar T., Gubin, S.V., Korzun, J., Lupachev, A.V., Savvinov, G.N., Tikhonov, A., Tsygankova, V.I., and Zanina, O.G.: Reconnaissance palaeoenvironmental study of 90 m of permafrost deposits at Batagaika megaslump, Yana Highlands, northern Siberia, XI. ICOP, Potsdam, Germany, 20-24 June, 2016.

The potential and sustainability of agricultural land use in a changing ecosystem in southern Greenland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunziker, Matthias; Caviezel, Chatrina; Kuhn, Nikolaus J.

2015-04-01

Southern Greenland currently experiences an increase in summer temperatures and a prolonged growing season (Masson-Delmotte et al. 2012), resulting in an increased potential regarding agricultural land use. Subsequently, the agricultural sector is expected to grow. Thereby, a higher hay production and grazing capacity is pursued by applying more efficient farming practices (Greenland Agriculture Advisory Board 2009). However, agricultural potential at borderline ecotones is not only influenced by factors like temperature and growing season but also by other ecologic parameters. In addition, the intensification of land use in the fragile boreal - tundra border ecotone has various environmental impacts (Perren et al. 2012; Normand et al. 2013). Already the Norse settlers practiced animal husbandry in southern Greenland between 986-1450 AD. Several authors mention the unadapted land use as main reason for the demise of the Norse in Greenland, as grazing pressure exceeded the resilience of the landscape and pasture economy failed (Fredskild 1988; Perren et al. 2012). During the field work in summer 2014, we compared the pedologic properties of already used hay fields, grazed land, birch woodland and barren, unused land around Igaliku (South Greenland), in order to estimate the potential and the sustainability of the land use in southern Greenland. Beside physical soil properties, nutrient condition of the different land use types, the shrub woodland and barren areas was analyzed. The results of the study show that the most suitable areas for intensive agricultural activity are mostly occupied. Further on, the fields, which were used by the Norse, seem to be the most productive sites nowadays. Less productive hay fields are characterized by a higher coarse fraction, leading to a reduced ability to store water and to an unfavorable nutrient status. An intensification of the agricultural land use by applying fertilizer would lead to an increased environmental impact. Fredskild B (1988) Agriculture in a marginal area - South Greenland from the Norse landnam (985 A.D.) to the resent (1985 A.D.). In: Birks HH, Birks HJB, Kaland PE et al. (eds) The Cultural Landscape - Past, Present and Future, Cambridge University Press, pp. 381-393. Greenland Agriculture Advisory Board (2009). Available at: http://www.nunalerineq.gl/english/landbrug/index-landbrug.htm Masson-Delmotte, V., D. Swingedouw, A. Landais, M. S. Seidenkrantz, E. Gauthier, V. Bichet, C. Massa, B. Perren, V. Jomelli, and G. Adalgeirsdottir. 2012. "Greenland Climate Change: From the Past to the Future." Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.186/full. Normand, Signe, Christophe Randin, Ralf Ohlemüller, Christian Bay, Toke T. Høye, Erik D. Kjær, Christian Körner, et al. 2013. "A Greener Greenland? Climatic Potential and Long-Term Constraints on Future Expansions of Trees and Shrubs." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 368 (1624) (August 19): 20120479. doi:10.1098/rstb.2012.0479. Perren, B., B, Massa, C., Bichet, V., Gauthier, E., Mathieu, O., Petit, C., Richard, H. 2012. A paleoecological perspective on 1450 years of human impacts from a lake in southern Greenland. The Holocene, 22 (9), pp. 1025-1034.

Assessment of extreme value distributions for maximum temperature in the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beck, Alexander; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus

2015-04-01

Extreme maximum temperatures highly affect the natural as well as the societal environment Heat stress has great effects on flora, fauna and humans and culminates in heat related morbidity and mortality. Agriculture and different industries are severely affected by extreme air temperatures. Even more under climate change conditions, it is necessary to detect potential hazards which arise from changes in the distributional parameters of extreme values, and this is especially relevant for the Mediterranean region which is characterized as a climate change hot spot. Therefore statistical approaches are developed to estimate these parameters with a focus on non-stationarities emerging in the relationship between regional climate variables and their large-scale predictors like sea level pressure, geopotential heights, atmospheric temperatures and relative humidity. Gridded maximum temperature data from the daily E-OBS dataset (Haylock et al., 2008) with a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° from January 1950 until December 2012 are the predictands for the present analyses. A s-mode principal component analysis (PCA) has been performed in order to reduce data dimension and to retain different regions of similar maximum temperature variability. The grid box with the highest PC-loading represents the corresponding principal component. A central part of the analyses is the model development for temperature extremes under the use of extreme value statistics. A combined model is derived consisting of a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) model and a quantile regression (QR) model which determines the GPD location parameters. The QR model as well as the scale parameters of the GPD model are conditioned by various large-scale predictor variables. In order to account for potential non-stationarities in the predictors-temperature relationships, a special calibration and validation scheme is applied, respectively. Haylock, M. R., N. Hofstra, A. M. G. Klein Tank, E. J. Klok, P. D. Jones, and M. New (2008), A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950 - 2006, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D20119, doi:10.1029/2008JD010201.

The variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation throughout the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wassenburg, Jasper; Dietrich, Stephan; Fietzke, Jan; Fohlmeister, Jens; Wei, Wei; Jochum, Klaus Peter; Scholz, Denis; Richter, Detlev; Sabaoui, Abdellah; Lohmann, Gerrit; Andreae, Meinrat; Immenhauser, Adrian

2013-04-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a major impact on Northern Hemisphere winter climate. Trouet et al. (2009) reconstructed the NAO for the last millennium based on a Moroccan tree ring PDSI (Palmer Drought Severity Index) reconstruction and a Scottish speleothem record. More recently, Olsen et al. (2012) extended the NAO record back to 5.2 ka BP based on a lake record from West Greenland. It is, however, well known that the NAO exhibits non-stationary behavior and the use of a single location for a NAO reconstruction may not capture the complete variability. In addition, the imprint of the NAO on European rainfall patterns in the Early and Mid Holocene on (multi-) centennial timescales is still largely unknown. This is related to difficulties in establishing robust correlations between different proxy records and the fact that proxies may not only reflect winter conditions (i.e., the season when the NAO has the largest influence). Here we present a precisely dated, high resolution speleothem δ18O record from NW Morocco covering the complete Early and Mid Holocene. Carbon and oxygen isotopes were measured at a resolution of 15 years. A multi-proxy approach provides solid evidence that speleothem δ18O values reflect changes in past rainfall intensity. The Moroccan record shows a significant correlation with a speleothem rainfall record from western Germany, which covers the entire Holocene (Fohlmeister et al., 2012). The combination with the extended speleothem record from Scotland, speleothem records from north Italy and the NAO reconstruction from West Greenland (Olsen et al., 2012) allows us to study the variability of the NAO during the entire Holocene. The relation between West German and Northwest Moroccan rainfall has not been stationary, which is evident from the changing signs of correlation. The Early Holocene is characterized by a positive correlation, which changes between 9 and 8 ka BP into a negative correlation. Simulations with the state-of-the-art earth system model COSMOS for the Early and Mid Holocene (Wei and Lohmann, 2012) indicate that this change in the NAO teleconnection is related to large-scale circulation changes due to the ice sheet configuration and deglaciation. References: Fohlmeister, J., Schroder-Ritzrau, A., Scholz, D., Riechelmann, D.F.C., Mudelsee, M., Wackerbarth, A., Gerdes, A., Riechelmann, S., Immenhauser, A., Richter, D.K., Mangini, A., 2012. Bunker Cave stalagmites: an archive for central European Holocene climate variability. Climate of the Past 8, 1751-1764. Olsen, J., Anderson, J.N., Knudsen, M.F., 2012. Variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past 5,200 years. Nature Geoscience DOI:10.1038/NGEO1589, Trouet, V., Esper, J., Graham, N.E., Baker, A., Scourse, J.D., Frank, D.C., 2009. Persistent Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Mode Dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Science 324, 78-80. Wei, W., Lohmann, G., 2012. Simulated Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation during the Holocene. Journal of Climate 6989-7002.

The CM SAF ATOVS data record: overview of methodology and evaluation of total column water and profiles of tropospheric humidity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courcoux, N.; Schröder, M.

2015-12-01

Recently, the reprocessed Advanced Television Infrared Observation Satellite (TIROS)-N Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) tropospheric water vapour and temperature data record was released by the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM~SAF). ATOVS observations from infrared and microwave sounders onboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA)-15-19 satellites and EUMETSAT's Meteorological Operational (Metop-A) satellite have been consistently reprocessed to generate 13 years (1999-2011) of global water vapour and temperature daily and monthly means with a spatial resolution of 90 km × 90 km. The data set is referenced under the following digital object identifier (DOI): doi:10.5676/EUM_SAF_CM/WVT_ATOVS/V001. After preprocessing, a maximum likelihood solution scheme was applied to the observations to simultaneously infer temperature and water vapour profiles. In a post-processing step, an objective interpolation method (Kriging) was applied to allow for gap filling. The product suite includes total precipitable water vapour (TPW), layer-integrated precipitable water vapour (LPW) and layer mean temperature for five tropospheric layers between the surface and 200 hPa, as well as specific humidity and temperature at six tropospheric levels between 1000 and 200 hPa. To our knowledge, this is the first time that the ATOVS record (1998-now) has been consistently reprocessed (1999-2011) to retrieve water vapour. TPW and LPW products were compared to corresponding products from the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Upper-Air Network (GUAN) radiosonde observations and from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) version 5 satellite data record. TPW shows a good agreement with the GUAN radiosonde data: average bias and root mean square error (RMSE) are -0.2 and 3.3 kg m-2, respectively. For LPW, the maximum absolute (relative) bias and RMSE values decrease (increase) strongly with height. The maximum bias and RMSE are found at the lowest layer and are -0.7 and 2.5 kg m-2, respectively. While the RMSE relative to AIRS is generally smaller, the TPW bias relative to AIRS is larger, with dominant contributions from precipitating areas. The consistently reprocessed ATOVS data record exhibits improved quality and stability relative to the operational CM SAF products when compared to the TPW from GUAN radiosonde data over the period 2004-2011. Finally, it became evident that the change in the number of satellites used for the retrieval combined with the use of the Kriging leads to breakpoints in the ATOVS data record; therefore, a variability analysis of the data record is not recommended for the time period from January 1999 to January 2001.

Analyzing the impact of changing size and composition of a crop model ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodríguez, Alfredo

2017-04-01

The use of an ensemble of crop growth simulation models is a practice recently adopted in order to quantify aspects of uncertainties in model simulations. Yet, while the climate modelling community has extensively investigated the properties of model ensembles and their implications, this has hardly been investigated for crop model ensembles (Wallach et al., 2016). In their ensemble of 27 wheat models, Martre et al. (2015) found that the accuracy of the multi-model ensemble-average only increases up to an ensemble size of ca. 10, but does not improve when including more models in the analysis. However, even when this number of members is reached, questions about the impact of the addition or removal of a member to/from the ensemble arise. When selecting ensemble members, identifying members with poor performance or giving implausible results can make a large difference on the outcome. The objective of this study is to set up a methodology that defines indicators to show the effects of changing the ensemble composition and size on simulation results, when a selection procedure of ensemble members is applied. Ensemble mean or median, and variance are measures used to depict ensemble results among other indicators. We are utilizing simulations from an ensemble of wheat models that have been used to construct impact response surfaces (Pirttioja et al., 2015) (IRSs). These show the response of an impact variable (e.g., crop yield) to systematic changes in two explanatory variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature). Using these, we compare different sub-ensembles in terms of the mean, median and spread, and also by comparing IRSs. The methodology developed here allows comparing an ensemble before and after applying any procedure that changes the ensemble composition and size by measuring the impact of this decision on the ensemble central tendency measures. The methodology could also be further developed to compare the effect of changing ensemble composition and size on IRS features. References Martre, P., Wallach, D., Asseng, S., Ewert, F., Jones, J.W., Rötter, R.P., Boote, K.J., Ruane, A.C., Thorburn, P.J., Cammarano, D., Hatfield, J.L., Rosenzweig, C., Aggarwal, P.K., Angulo, C., Basso, B., Bertuzzi, P., Biernath, C., Brisson, N., Challinor, A.J., Doltra, J., Gayler, S., Goldberg, R., Grant, R.F., Heng, L., Hooker, J., Hunt, L.A., Ingwersen, J., Izaurralde, R.C., Kersebaum, K.C., Muller, C., Kumar, S.N., Nendel, C., O'Leary, G., Olesen, J.E., Osborne, T.M., Palosuo, T., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Semenov, M.A., Shcherbak, I., Steduto, P., Stockle, C.O., Stratonovitch, P., Streck, T., Supit, I., Tao, F.L., Travasso, M., Waha, K., White, J.W., Wolf, J., 2015. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one. Glob. Change Biol. 21, 911-925. Pirttioja N., Carter T., Fronzek S., Bindi M., Hoffmann H., Palosuo T., Ruiz-Ramos, M., Tao F., Trnka M., Acutis M., Asseng S., Baranowski P., Basso B., Bodin P., Buis S., Cammarano D., Deligios P., Destain M.-F., Doro L., Dumont B., Ewert F., Ferrise R., Francois L., Gaiser T., Hlavinka P., Jacquemin I., Kersebaum K.-C., Kollas C., Krzyszczak J., Lorite I. J., Minet J., Minguez M. I., Montesion M., Moriondo M., Müller C., Nendel C., Öztürk I., Perego A., Rodriguez, A., Ruane A.C., Ruget F., Sanna M., Semenov M., Slawinski C., Stratonovitch P., Supit I., Waha K., Wang E., Wu L., Zhao Z., Rötter R.P, 2015. A crop model ensemble analysis of temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect using impact response surfaces. Clim. Res., 65:87-105, doi:10.3354/cr01322 Wallach, D., Mearns, L.O. Ruane, A.C., Rötter, R.P., Asseng, S. (2016). Lessons from climate modeling on the design and use of ensembles for crop modeling. Climate Change (in press) doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1803-1.

Overview of NASA's MODIS and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) snow-cover Earth System Data Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riggs, George A.; Hall, Dorothy K.; Román, Miguel O.

2017-10-01

Knowledge of the distribution, extent, duration and timing of snowmelt is critical for characterizing the Earth's climate system and its changes. As a result, snow cover is one of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) essential climate variables (ECVs). Consistent, long-term datasets of snow cover are needed to study interannual variability and snow climatology. The NASA snow-cover datasets generated from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Terra and Aqua spacecraft and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) are NASA Earth System Data Records (ESDR). The objective of the snow-cover detection algorithms is to optimize the accuracy of mapping snow-cover extent (SCE) and to minimize snow-cover detection errors of omission and commission using automated, globally applied algorithms to produce SCE data products. Advancements in snow-cover mapping have been made with each of the four major reprocessings of the MODIS data record, which extends from 2000 to the present. MODIS Collection 6 (C6; https://nsidc.org/data/modis/data_summaries) and VIIRS Collection 1 (C1; https://doi.org/10.5067/VIIRS/VNP10.001) represent the state-of-the-art global snow-cover mapping algorithms and products for NASA Earth science. There were many revisions made in the C6 algorithms which improved snow-cover detection accuracy and information content of the data products. These improvements have also been incorporated into the NASA VIIRS snow-cover algorithms for C1. Both information content and usability were improved by including the Normalized Snow Difference Index (NDSI) and a quality assurance (QA) data array of algorithm processing flags in the data product, along with the SCE map. The increased data content allows flexibility in using the datasets for specific regions and end-user applications. Though there are important differences between the MODIS and VIIRS instruments (e.g., the VIIRS 375 m native resolution compared to MODIS 500 m), the snow detection algorithms and data products are designed to be as similar as possible so that the 16+ year MODIS ESDR of global SCE can be extended into the future with the S-NPP VIIRS snow products and with products from future Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) platforms. These NASA datasets are archived and accessible through the NASA Distributed Active Archive Center at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado.

Seasonal changes of the infiltration rates in urban parks of Valencia City, Eastern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerdà, Artemi; Keesstra, Saskia; Burguet, María; Pereira, Paulo; Esteban Lucas-Borja, Manuel; Martinez-Murillo, Juan F.

2016-04-01

Infiltration is a key process of the hydrological cycle. Infiltration also controls the soil water resources, and the development of the vegetation, and moreover, in the Mediterranean, determines the runoff generation (Cerdà, 1996; 1997; 2001). In the Mediterranean, the infiltration in forest soils shows high spatial variability and seasonal and temporal changes (Cerdà, 1999; Bodí and Cerdà, 2009) and is being affected by forest fires (Cerdà, 1998), which introduce a new temporal change in the seasonality of the infiltration rates. Although the forest soils are well assessed, there is no information about the infiltration in urban areas in Mediterranean cities. The Mediterranean dense urban systems use to be treated as impermeable areas. However, the cities show areas covered by vegetation and with soils that allow the rainfall to infiltrate. Those areas are mainly the parks. In order to shed some light on the infiltration capacity of the soils of the urban area of Valencia city 30 rainfall simulations experiments (Cerdà, 1996) and 90 ring infiltrometer (10 cm diameter) measurements were carried out in January 2011, and they were repeated in July 2011, to compare wet (19.4 % of soil moisture) and dry (5.98 % of soil moisture) soils. The infiltration curves where fitted to the Horton (1933) equation and they lasted for 1 hour. The results show that the infiltration is 11 times higher when measured with ring infiltrometer than with the simulated rainfall at 55 mmh-1, and that the infiltration rates where higher in summer than in winter: 2.01 higher for the ring infiltrometer, and 1.45 higher when measured with the rainfall simulator. In comparison to the soils from the forest areas, the infiltration rate in the gardens were lower, with values of 10.23 and 21.65 mm h-1 in average for winter and summer when measured with the rainfall simulator. Similar results were found with the ring infiltrometer. It was also found a clear relationship between the vegetation cover and the infiltration, with high infiltration rates with the grass covers. This is due to the higher infiltration rates of the soils with roots and due to the impact of plant stems on the runoff generation (Wang et al., 2015; Zhao et al., 2015). The importance of the vegetation on the soil infiltration capacity in the gardens of Valencia is a key factor to reduce the runoff sediment concentration such as was found at different scales (Keesstra et al., 2007; Nanko et al., 2015; Pereira et al, 2015; Prosdocimi et al., 2016) Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n° 603498 (RECARE project). References Cerdà, A. 1996. Seasonal variability of infiltration rates under contrasting slope conditions in southeast Spain. Geoderma, 69 (3-4), 217-232. Cerdà, A. 1997. Seasonal changes of the infiltration rates in a mediterranean scrubland on limestone. Journal of Hydrology, 198 (1-4), 209-225. DOI: 10.1016/S0022-1694(96)03295-7 Cerdà, A. 1998. Changes in overland flow and infiltration after a rangeland fire in a Mediterranean scrubland, Hydrological Processes, 12 (7), 1031-1042. Cerdà, A. 1999. Seasonal and spatial variations in infiltration rates in badland surfaces under Mediterranean climatic conditions. Water Resources Research, 35 (1), 319-328. DOI: 10.1029/98WR01659 Cerdà, A. 2001.Effects of rock fragment cover on soil infiltration, interrill runoff and erosion. European Journal of Soil Science, 52 (1), 59-68. DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2389.2001.00354.x Cerdà, A., Bodì, M.B. 2009. Infiltration process in the badlands of the East in the Iberian Peninsula. Progress and challenges. Cuadernos de Investigación Geográfica, 35 (1), 7-42. Keesstra, S.D. 2007. Impact of natural reforestation on floodplain sedimentation in the Dragonja basin, SW Slovenia. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 32(1): 49-65. DOI: 10.1002/esp.1360 Nanko, K., Giambelluca, T.W., Sutherland, R.A., Mudd, R.G., Nullet, M.A., Ziegler, A.D. 2015.Erosion potential under miconia calvescens stands on the island of hawai'i. Land Degradation and Development, 26 (3), pp. 218-226. DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2200 Pereira, P., Giménez-Morera, A., Novara, A., Keesstra, S., Jordán, A., Masto, R. E., Brevik, E., Azorin-Molina, C. Cerdà, A. 2015. The impact of road and railway embankments on runoff and soil erosion in eastern Spain. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 12947-12985. Prosdocimi,M., Jordán, A., Tarolli, P., Keesstra, S., Novara, A., Cerdà, A. 2016. The immediate effectiveness of barley straw mulch in reducing soil erodibility and surface runoff generation in Mediterranean vineyards. Science of The Total Environment, 547, 15 ,323-330, doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.12.076 Wang Y., Fan J., Cao L., Liang Y. 2015. Infiltration and Runoff Generation Under Various Cropping Patterns in the Red Soil Region of China. Land Degradation and Development. DOI: 10. 1002/ldr. 2460 Zhao, C., Gao, J., Huang, Y., Wang, G., Zhang, M. 2015. Effects of Vegetation Stems on Hydraulics of Overland Flow Under Varying Water Discharges. Land Degradation and Development, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2423

Description of Mixed-Phase Clouds in Weather Forecast and Climate Models

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-30

energy budget and thus the melting and freezing of sea ice , both at present and into the future. RELATED PROJECTS This project is a follow-up...Arctic sea - ice in late summer, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 13, 13191-13244, doi: 10.5194/acpd-13-13191-2013. Sotiropoulou, G., M. Tjernström, J. Sedlar...common, by far the most common cloud type over the Arctic, when thermodynamic principles suggest that ice and liquid particles cannot coexist for

Transitions Towards Operational Space-Based Ocean Observations: From Single Research Missions into Series and Constellations

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-16

Meleorol. Soc... 88 (8). 1197-121.1. 2007 . (DOI: 10.1175/ BAMS-88-8-1197) 4. GCOS Implementation Plan for the Global Observing System for Climate...21-25 September 2009, Hall, J.. Harrison 1) 1 and Stammer . D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306, 2010. 6. Le Traon, P.-Y.. and Co-Authors (2010...Information for Society" Conference (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J., Harrison D.E. and Stammer , D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP

Assessing the continuum of applications and societal benefits of US CLIVAR science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Garfin, G. M.

2015-12-01

The new US CLIVAR strategic plan seeks to address the challenges of communicating the climate knowledge generated through its activities and to collaborate with the research and operational communities that may use this knowledge for managing climate risks. This presentation provides results of an overview in progress of the continuum of potential applications of climate science organized and coordinated through US CLIVAR. We define applications more broadly than simply ready for operations or direct use, and find that there are several stages in a continuum of readiness for communication and collaboration with communities that use climate information. These stages include: 1) advancing scientific understanding to a readiness for the next research steps aimed at predictable signals; 2) application of understanding climate phenomena in collaboration with a boundary organization, such as NOAA RISAs DOI Climate Science Centers, and USDA Climate Hubs, to understand how predictable signals may be translated into useable products; 3) use of knowledge in risk framing for a decision process, or in a science synthesis, such as the National Climate Assessment, and 4) transitioning new science knowledge into operational products (e.g. R2O), such as intraseasonal climate prediction. In addition, US CLIVAR has sponsored efforts to build science-to-decisions capacity, e.g., the Postdocs Applying Climate Expertise (PACE) program, in its 7th cohort, which has embedded climate experts into decision-making institutions. We will spotlight accomplishments of US CLIVAR science that are ripe for application in communities that are managing climate risks -- such as drought outlooks, MJO forecasting, extremes, and ocean conditions -- for agricultural production, water use, and marine ecosystems. We will use these examples to demonstrate the usefulness of an "applications continuum framework" identifying pathways from research to applications.

Future Directions in Simulating Solar Geoengineering

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Benjamin S.; Robock, Alan; Boucher, Olivier

2014-08-05

Solar geoengineering is a proposed set of technologies to temporarily alleviate some of the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) created a framework of geoengineering simulations in climate models that have been performed by modeling centers throughout the world (B. Kravitz et al., The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP), Atmospheric Science Letters, 12(2), 162-167, doi:10.1002/asl.316, 2011). These experiments use state-of-the-art climate models to simulate solar geoengineering via uniform solar reduction, creation of stratospheric sulfate aerosol layers, or injecting sea spray into the marine boundary layer. GeoMIP has been quite successful in its mission ofmore » revealing robust features and key uncertainties of the modeled effects of solar geoengineering.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Staats, E.B.

Presently, most of the 114,000 onshore oil and gas leases for over 93 million acres of Federal land are awarded under a lottery system. GAO was asked to review alleged irregularities in this leasing, administered by the Department of the Interior (DOI). GAO's review of drawings in New Mexico and Wyoming detected no indication of manipulation, but showed weaknesses in controls which allow the possibility for it. Basic changes, including possible alternatives to the system, are under study by DOI.

Land cover and vegetation data from an ecological survey of "key habitat" landscapes in England, 1992-1993

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Claire M.; Bunce, Robert G. H.; Norton, Lisa R.; Smart, Simon M.; Barr, Colin J.

2018-05-01

Since 1978, a series of national surveys (Countryside Survey, CS) have been carried out by the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH) (formerly the Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, ITE) to gather data on the natural environment in Great Britain (GB). As the sampling framework for these surveys is not optimised to yield data on rarer or more localised habitats, a survey was commissioned by the then Department of the Environment (DOE, now the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, DEFRA) in the 1990s to carry out additional survey work in English landscapes which contained semi-natural habitats that were perceived to be under threat, or which represented areas of concern to the ministry. The landscapes were lowland heath, chalk and limestone (calcareous) grasslands, coasts and uplands. The information recorded allowed an assessment of the extent and quality of a range of habitats defined during the project, which can now be translated into standard UK broad and priority habitat classes. The survey, known as the "Key Habitat Survey", followed a design which was a series of gridded, stratified, randomly selected 1 km squares taken as representative of each of the four landscape types in England, determined from statistical land classification and geological data ("spatial masks"). The definitions of the landscapes are given in the descriptions of the spatial masks, along with definitions of the surveyed habitats. A total of 213 of the 1 km2 square sample sites were surveyed in the summers of 1992 and 1993, with information being collected on vegetation species, land cover, landscape features and land use, applying standardised repeatable methods. The database contributes additional information and value to the long-term monitoring data gathered by the Countryside Survey and provides a valuable baseline against which future ecological changes may be compared, offering the potential for a repeat survey. The data were analysed and described in a series of contract reports and are summarised in the present paper, showing for example that valuable habitats were restricted in all landscapes, with the majority located within protected areas of countryside according to different UK designations. The dataset provides major potential for analyses, beyond those already published, for example in relation to climate change, agri-environment policies and land management. Precise locations of the plots are restricted, largely for reasons of landowner confidentiality. However, the representative nature of the dataset makes it highly valuable for evaluating the status of ecological elements within the associated landscapes surveyed. Both land cover data and vegetation plot data were collected during the surveys in 1992 and 1993 and are available via the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.5285/7aefe6aa-0760-4b6d-9473-fad8b960abd4. The spatial masks are also available from https://doi.org/10.5285/dc583be3-3649-4df6-b67e-b0f40b4ec895.

Connectivity research in Iceland - using scientific tools to establish sustainable water management strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finger, David

2015-04-01

Since the ninth century when the first settlers arrived in Iceland the island has undergone deforestation and subsequent vegetation degradation and soil erosion. Almost the entire birch forest and woodland, which originally covered ~ 25% of the nation, have been deforested through wood cutting and overgrazing. Consequently, soil erosion seriously affects over 40% of the country. During the last 50 years extensive drainage of wetlands has taken place. Furthermore, about 75% of Iceland electricity production comes from hydropower plants, constructed along the main rivers. Along with seismic and volcanic activities the above mentioned anthropogenic impacts continuously altered the hydro-geomorphic connectivity in many parts of the island. In the framework of ongoing efforts to restore ecosystems and their services in Iceland a thorough understanding of the hydro-geomorphic processes is essential. Field observations and numerical models are crucial tools to adopt appropriate management strategies and help decision makers establish sustainable governance strategies. Sediment transport models have been used in the past to investigate the impacts of hydropower dams on sediment transport in downstream rivers (Finger et al., 2006). Hydropower operations alter the turbidity dynamics in downstream freshwater systems, affecting visibility and light penetration into the water, leading to significant changes in primary production (Finger et al., 2007a). Overall, the interruption of connectivity by physical obstructions can affect the entire food chain, hampering the fishing yields in downstream waters (Finger et al., 2007b). In other locations hydraulic connectivity through retreating glaciers assures water transfer from upstream to downstream areas. The drastically retreat of glaciers can raise concerns of future water availability in remote mountain areas (Finger et al., 2013). Furthermore, the drastic reduction of glacier mass also jeopardizes the water availability for hydropower production (Finger et al., 2012). All these factors reveal the importance of a thorough understanding of hydro-geomorphic connectivity to adopt adequate water management strategies. The presentation will conclude by outlining how the above presented methods can be applied to Icelandic study sites to help water managers and policy makers to adopt resilient based policies regarding the challenges of future climate change impacts. References: Finger, D., M. Schmid, and A. Wuest (2006), Effects of upstream hydropower operation on riverine particle transport and turbidity in downstream lakes, Water Resour. Res., 42(8), doi: 10.1029/2005wr004751. Finger, D., P. Bossard, M. Schmid, L. Jaun, B. Müller, D. Steiner, E. Schaffer, M. Zeh, and A. Wüest (2007a), Effects of alpine hydropower operations on primary production in a downstream lake, Aquatic Sciences, 69(2), 240-256, doi: 10.1007/s00027-007-0873-6. Finger, D., M. Schmid, and A. Wüest (2007b), Comparing effects of oligotrophication and upstream hydropower dams on plankton and productivity in perialpine lakes, Water Resour. Res., 43(12), W12404, doi: 10.1029/2007WR005868. Finger, D., G. Heinrich, A. Gobiet, and A. Bauder (2012), Projections of future water resources and their uncertainty in a glacierized catchment in the Swiss Alps and the subsequent effects on hydropower production during the 21st century, Water Resour. Res., 48, doi: 10.1029/2011wr010733, W02521. Finger, D., A. Hugentobler, M. Huss, A. Voinesco, H. R. Wernli, D. Fischer, E. Weber, P.-Y. Jeannin, M. Kauzlaric, A. Wirz, T. Vennemann, F. Hüsler, B. Schädler, and R. Weingartner (2013), Identification of glacial melt water runoff in a karstic environment and its implication for present and future water availability, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 3261-3277, doi: 10.5194/hess-17-3261-2013.

Sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice to the Southern Annular Mode in coupled climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holland, Marika M.; Landrum, Laura; Kostov, Yavor; Marshall, John

2017-09-01

We assess the sea ice response to Southern Annular Mode (SAM) anomalies for pre-industrial control simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Consistent with work by Ferreira et al. (J Clim 28:1206-1226, 2015. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00313.1), the models generally simulate a two-timescale response to positive SAM anomalies, with an initial increase in ice followed by an eventual sea ice decline. However, the models differ in the cross-over time at which the change in ice response occurs, in the overall magnitude of the response, and in the spatial distribution of the response. Late twentieth century Antarctic sea ice trends in CMIP5 simulations are related in part to different modeled responses to SAM variability acting on different time-varying transient SAM conditions. This explains a significant fraction of the spread in simulated late twentieth century southern hemisphere sea ice extent trends across the model simulations. Applying the modeled sea ice response to SAM variability but driven by the observed record of SAM suggests that variations in the austral summer SAM, which has exhibited a significant positive trend, have driven a modest sea ice decrease. However, additional work is needed to narrow the considerable model uncertainty in the climate response to SAM variability and its implications for 20th-21st century trends.

The CAMELS data set: catchment attributes and meteorology for large-sample studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, Nans; Newman, Andrew J.; Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn P.

2017-10-01

We present a new data set of attributes for 671 catchments in the contiguous United States (CONUS) minimally impacted by human activities. This complements the daily time series of meteorological forcing and streamflow provided by Newman et al. (2015b). To produce this extension, we synthesized diverse and complementary data sets to describe six main classes of attributes at the catchment scale: topography, climate, streamflow, land cover, soil, and geology. The spatial variations among basins over the CONUS are discussed and compared using a series of maps. The large number of catchments, combined with the diversity of the attributes we extracted, makes this new data set well suited for large-sample studies and comparative hydrology. In comparison to the similar Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) data set, this data set relies on more recent data, it covers a wider range of attributes, and its catchments are more evenly distributed across the CONUS. This study also involves assessments of the limitations of the source data sets used to compute catchment attributes, as well as detailed descriptions of how the attributes were computed. The hydrometeorological time series provided by Newman et al. (2015b, https://doi.org/10.5065/D6MW2F4D) together with the catchment attributes introduced in this paper (https://doi.org/10.5065/D6G73C3Q) constitute the freely available CAMELS data set, which stands for Catchment Attributes and MEteorology for Large-sample Studies.

Carbon recovery dynamics following disturbance by selective logging in Amazonian forests

PubMed Central

Piponiot, Camille; Sist, Plinio; Mazzei, Lucas; Peña-Claros, Marielos; Putz, Francis E; Rutishauser, Ervan; Shenkin, Alexander; Ascarrunz, Nataly; de Azevedo, Celso P; Baraloto, Christopher; França, Mabiane; Guedes, Marcelino; Honorio Coronado, Eurídice N; d'Oliveira, Marcus VN; Ruschel, Ademir R; da Silva, Kátia E; Doff Sotta, Eleneide; de Souza, Cintia R; Vidal, Edson; West, Thales AP; Hérault, Bruno

2016-01-01

When 2 Mha of Amazonian forests are disturbed by selective logging each year, more than 90 Tg of carbon (C) is emitted to the atmosphere. Emissions are then counterbalanced by forest regrowth. With an original modelling approach, calibrated on a network of 133 permanent forest plots (175 ha total) across Amazonia, we link regional differences in climate, soil and initial biomass with survivors’ and recruits’ C fluxes to provide Amazon-wide predictions of post-logging C recovery. We show that net aboveground C recovery over 10 years is higher in the Guiana Shield and in the west (21 ±3 Mg C ha-1) than in the south (12 ±3 Mg C ha-1) where environmental stress is high (low rainfall, high seasonality). We highlight the key role of survivors in the forest regrowth and elaborate a comprehensive map of post-disturbance C recovery potential in Amazonia. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.21394.001 PMID:27993185

The Arabidopsis thaliana mobilome and its impact at the species level

PubMed Central

Quadrana, Leandro; Bortolini Silveira, Amanda; Mayhew, George F; LeBlanc, Chantal; Martienssen, Robert A; Jeddeloh, Jeffrey A; Colot, Vincent

2016-01-01

Transposable elements (TEs) are powerful motors of genome evolution yet a comprehensive assessment of recent transposition activity at the species level is lacking for most organisms. Here, using genome sequencing data for 211 Arabidopsis thaliana accessions taken from across the globe, we identify thousands of recent transposition events involving half of the 326 TE families annotated in this plant species. We further show that the composition and activity of the 'mobilome' vary extensively between accessions in relation to climate and genetic factors. Moreover, TEs insert equally throughout the genome and are rapidly purged by natural selection from gene-rich regions because they frequently affect genes, in multiple ways. Remarkably, loci controlling adaptive responses to the environment are the most frequent transposition targets observed. These findings demonstrate the pervasive, species-wide impact that a rich mobilome can have and the importance of transposition as a recurrent generator of large-effect alleles. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.15716.001 PMID:27258693

Assessing the role of the West Pacific Gradient for global climate teleconnections over the past Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zinke, Jens; Browning, Stuart A.; Hoell, Andrew; Goodwin, Ian D.

2017-04-01

The Maritime Continent (MC) is the hydrological power house of the planet being collocated within the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, where sea surface temperatures (SST) exceed 28°C associated with strong convective rainfall year-round. The convective activity over the Maritime Continent associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is intimately linked to large- scale variations in the climate system and global rainfall-drought patterns. New research has shown that during both El Niño and La Niña events the global impacts in terms of atmospheric circulation and precipitation were more severe when the SST anomalies in the westernmost Pacific (WP; 0-10°N, 130-150°E) were strongly opposing those in the central Pacific (Niño4 region; 5°S-5°N, 160-210°E) than when the west Pacific SST anomalies were near neutral. This temperature gradient is referred to as the West Pacific Gradient (WPG; Hoell and Funk, 2013; Zinke et al., 2015). A positive WPG is when WP SST anomalies are colder than those in the central Pacific, thus El-Niño-like conditions prevail. Recent changes in the WPG towards a negative phase, combined with strong WP warming after the Indo-Pacific climate regime shift of the late 1990s, are driving significant thermal anomalies from the Indonesian seas to the southern coast of Western Australia and along the southwest Pacific (Zinke et al., 2015). The reconstruction of the WPG for the past Millennium might provide novel insights into past tropical climate variability since more long proxy archives are available to assess the WPG than for the Niño3.4 region. WPG variability over the past millennium is reconstructed using an experimental paleoclimate based reanalysis (PaleoR). PaleoR is analogous to modern reanalysis products, but constrained by paleoclimate data instead of meteorological observations (Goodwin et al., 2014). PaleoR employs an offline assimilation scheme where each year (or decade) is individually reconstructed by using information from a multivariate proxy data array to select best matching analogues from the Last Millennial Ensemble simulations (LME; Otto-Bliesner et al., 2015). The PaleoR approach preserves dynamical relationships between ocean and atmospheric variables and accommodates periods of non-stationary teleconnections. Our results reveal a sustained positive WPG between AD 1250 to 1650 (a period that Goodwin et al. 2014 identified as being persistent El Niño like) and a mostly negative WPG between AD 1650 and 2000, the latter interrupted by multi-decadal periods with a positive WPG centered around 1760, 1830 and 1900. The periods between AD 1125-1175 and 1185-1250 were characterized by a negative WPG (a period that Goodwin et al. 2014 identified as being persistent La Niña like) with positive WPG excursions in decades around AD 1000-1050, 1100 and 1175. We investigate the spatial climate anomaly fields for periods of sustained positive and negative WPG to reveal potential global climate teleconnections in terms of SST, rainfall, winds and sea-level pressure during the past Millennium. References Goodwin et al. 2014, P. Natl. A. Sci., 111, 14716-14721 Hoell and Funk 2013, J. Clim., 26, 9545-9562 Otto-Bliesner et al., 2015, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00233.1 Zinke et al. 2015, Nature Communications, 6:8562, doi: 10.1038/ncomms9562

KRILLBASE: a circumpolar database of Antarctic krill and salp numerical densities, 1926-2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atkinson, Angus; Hill, Simeon L.; Pakhomov, Evgeny A.; Siegel, Volker; Anadon, Ricardo; Chiba, Sanae; Daly, Kendra L.; Downie, Rod; Fielding, Sophie; Fretwell, Peter; Gerrish, Laura; Hosie, Graham W.; Jessopp, Mark J.; Kawaguchi, So; Krafft, Bjørn A.; Loeb, Valerie; Nishikawa, Jun; Peat, Helen J.; Reiss, Christian S.; Ross, Robin M.; Quetin, Langdon B.; Schmidt, Katrin; Steinberg, Deborah K.; Subramaniam, Roshni C.; Tarling, Geraint A.; Ward, Peter

2017-03-01

Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba) and salps are major macroplankton contributors to Southern Ocean food webs and krill are also fished commercially. Managing this fishery sustainably, against a backdrop of rapid regional climate change, requires information on distribution and time trends. Many data on the abundance of both taxa have been obtained from net sampling surveys since 1926, but much of this is stored in national archives, sometimes only in notebooks. In order to make these important data accessible we have collated available abundance data (numerical density, no. m-2) of postlarval E. superba and salp individual (multiple species, and whether singly or in chains). These were combined into a central database, KRILLBASE, together with environmental information, standardisation and metadata. The aim is to provide a temporal-spatial data resource to support a variety of research such as biogeochemistry, autecology, higher predator foraging and food web modelling in addition to fisheries management and conservation. Previous versions of KRILLBASE have led to a series of papers since 2004 which illustrate some of the potential uses of this database. With increasing numbers of requests for these data we here provide an updated version of KRILLBASE that contains data from 15 194 net hauls, including 12 758 with krill abundance data and 9726 with salp abundance data. These data were collected by 10 nations and span 56 seasons in two epochs (1926-1939 and 1976-2016). Here, we illustrate the seasonal, inter-annual, regional and depth coverage of sampling, and provide both circumpolar- and regional-scale distribution maps. Krill abundance data have been standardised to accommodate variation in sampling methods, and we have presented these as well as the raw data. Information is provided on how to screen, interpret and use KRILLBASE to reduce artefacts in interpretation, with contact points for the main data providers. The DOI for the published data set is doi:10.5285/8b00a915-94e3-4a04-a903-dd4956346439.

A Wiener-Wavelet-Based filter for de-noising satellite soil moisture retrievals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massari, Christian; Brocca, Luca; Ciabatta, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Su, Chun-Hsu; Ryu, Dongryeol; Wagner, Wolfgang

2014-05-01

The reduction of noise in microwave satellite soil moisture (SM) retrievals is of paramount importance for practical applications especially for those associated with the study of climate changes, droughts, floods and other related hydrological processes. So far, Fourier based methods have been used for de-noising satellite SM retrievals by filtering either the observed emissivity time series (Du, 2012) or the retrieved SM observations (Su et al. 2013). This contribution introduces an alternative approach based on a Wiener-Wavelet-Based filtering (WWB) technique, which uses the Entropy-Based Wavelet de-noising method developed by Sang et al. (2009) to design both a causal and a non-causal version of the filter. WWB is used as a post-retrieval processing tool to enhance the quality of observations derived from the i) Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for the Earth observing system (AMSR-E), ii) the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT), and iii) the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite. The method is tested on three pilot sites located in Spain (Remedhus Network), in Greece (Hydrological Observatory of Athens) and in Australia (Oznet network), respectively. Different quantitative criteria are used to judge the goodness of the de-noising technique. Results show that WWB i) is able to improve both the correlation and the root mean squared differences between satellite retrievals and in situ soil moisture observations, and ii) effectively separates random noise from deterministic components of the retrieved signals. Moreover, the use of WWB de-noised data in place of raw observations within a hydrological application confirms the usefulness of the proposed filtering technique. Du, J. (2012), A method to improve satellite soil moisture retrievals based on Fourier analysis, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L15404, doi:10.1029/ 2012GL052435 Su,C.-H.,D.Ryu, A. W. Western, and W. Wagner (2013), De-noising of passive and active microwave satellite soil moisture time series, Geophys. Res. Lett., 40,3624-3630, doi:10.1002/grl.50695. Sang Y.-F., D. Wang, J.-C. Wu, Q.-P. Zhu, and L. Wang (2009), Entropy-Based Wavelet De-noising Method for Time Series Analysis, Entropy, 11, pp. 1123-1148, doi:10.3390/e11041123.

Seabed images from Southern Ocean shelf regions off the northern Antarctic Peninsula and in the southeastern Weddell Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piepenburg, Dieter; Buschmann, Alexander; Driemel, Amelie; Grobe, Hannes; Gutt, Julian; Schumacher, Stefanie; Segelken-Voigt, Alexandra; Sieger, Rainer

2017-07-01

Recent advances in underwater imaging technology allow for the gathering of invaluable scientific information on seafloor ecosystems, such as direct in situ views of seabed habitats and quantitative data on the composition, diversity, abundance, and distribution of epibenthic fauna. The imaging approach has been extensively used within the research project DynAMo (Dynamics of Antarctic Marine Shelf Ecosystems) at the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research Bremerhaven (AWI), which aimed to comparatively assess the pace and quality of the dynamics of Southern Ocean benthos. Within this framework, epibenthic spatial distribution patterns have been comparatively investigated in two regions in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean: the shelf areas off the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula, representing a region with above-average warming of surface waters and sea-ice reduction, and the shelves of the eastern Weddell Sea as an example of a stable high-Antarctic marine environment that is not (yet) affected by climate change. The AWI Ocean Floor Observation System (OFOS) was used to collect seabed imagery during two cruises of the German research vessel Polarstern, ANT-XXIX/3 (PS81) to the Antarctic Peninsula from January to March 2013 and ANT-XXXI/2 (PS96) to the Weddell Sea from December 2015 to February 2016. Here, we report on the image and data collections gathered during these cruises. During PS81, OFOS was successfully deployed at a total of 31 stations at water depths between 29 and 784 m. At most stations, series of 500 to 530 pictures ( > 15 000 in total, each depicting a seabed area of approximately 3.45 m2 or 2.3 × 1.5 m) were taken along transects approximately 3.7 km in length. During PS96, OFOS was used at a total of 13 stations at water depths between 200 and 754 m, yielding series of 110 to 293 photos (2670 in total) along transects 0.9 to 2.6 km in length. All seabed images taken during the two cruises, including metadata, are available from the data publisher PANGAEA via the two persistent identifiers at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.872719 (for PS81) and https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.862097 (for PS96).

Probabilistic Projections of Future Sea-Level Change and Their Implications for Flood Risk Management: Insights from the American Climate Prospectus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kopp, R. E., III; Delgado, M.; Horton, R. M.; Houser, T.; Little, C. M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Oppenheimer, M.; Rasmussen, D. M., Jr.; Strauss, B.; Tebaldi, C.

2014-12-01

Global mean sea level (GMSL) rise projections are insufficient for adaptation planning; local decisions require local projections that characterize risk over a range of timeframes and tolerances. We present a global set of local sea level (LSL) projections to inform decisions on timescales ranging from the coming decades through the 22nd century. We present complete probability distributions, informed by a combination of expert community assessment, expert elicitation, and process modeling [1]. We illustrate the application of this framework by estimating the joint distribution of future sea-level change and coastal flooding, and associated economic costs [1,2]. In much of the world in the current century, differences in median LSL projections are due primarily to varying levels of non-climatic uplift or subsidence. In the 22nd century and in the high-end tails, larger ice sheet contributions, particularly from the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS), contribute significantly to site-to-site differences. Uncertainty in GMSL and most LSL projections is dominated by the uncertain AIS component. Sea-level rise dramatically reshapes flood risk. For example, at the New York City (Battery) tide gauge, our projections indicate a likely (67% probability) 21st century LSL rise under RCP 8.5 of 65--129 cm (1-in-20 chance of exceeding 154 cm). Convolving the distribution of projected sea-level rise with the extreme value distribution of flood return periods indicates that this rise will cause the current 1.80 m `1-in-100 year' flood event to occur an expected nine times over the 21st century -- equivalent to the expected number of `1-in-11 year' floods in the absence of sea-level change. Projected sea-level rise for 2100 under RCP 8.5 would likely place 80-160 billion of current property in New York below the high tide line, with a 1-in-20 chance of losses >190 billion. Even without accounting for potential changes in storms themselves, it would likely increase average annual storm damage by 2.6-5.2 billion (1-in-20 chance of >7 billion). Projected increases in tropical cyclone intensity would further increase damages [2]. References: [1] R. E. Kopp et al. (2014), Earth's Future, doi:10.1002/2014EF000239. [2] T. Houser et al. (2014), American Climate Prospectus, www.climateprospectus.org.

Ecological landscape elements: long-term monitoring in Great Britain, the Countryside Survey 1978-2007 and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Claire M.; Bunce, Robert G. H.; Norton, Lisa R.; Maskell, Lindsay C.; Smart, Simon M.; Scott, W. Andrew; Henrys, Peter A.; Howard, David C.; Wright, Simon M.; Brown, Michael J.; Scott, Rod J.; Stuart, Rick C.; Watkins, John W.

2018-04-01

The Countryside Survey (CS) of Great Britain (GB) provides a unique and statistically robust series of datasets, consisting of an extensive set of repeated ecological measurements at a national scale, covering a time span of 29 years. CS was first undertaken in 1978 to provide a baseline for ecological and land use change monitoring in the rural environment of GB, following a stratified random design, based on 1 km squares. Originally, eight random 1 km squares were drawn from each of 32 environmental classes, thus comprising 256 sample squares in the 1978 survey. The number of these sites increased to 382 in 1984, 506 in 1990, 569 in 1998 and 591 in 2007. Detailed information regarding vegetation types and land use was mapped in all five surveys, allowing reporting by defined standard habitat classifications. Additionally, point and linear landscape features (such as trees and hedgerows) are available from all surveys after 1978. From these stratified, randomly located sample squares, information can be converted into national estimates, with associated error terms. Other data, relating to soils, freshwater and vegetation, were also sampled on analogous dates. However, the present paper describes only the surveys of landscape features and habitats. The resulting datasets provide a unique, comprehensive, quantitative ecological coverage of extent and change in these features in GB. Basic results are presented and their implications discussed. However, much opportunity for further analyses remains. Data from each of the survey years are available via the following DOIs: Landscape area data 1978: https://doi.org/10.5285/86c017ba-dc62-46f0-ad13-c862bf31740e, 1984: https://doi.org/10.5285/b656bb43-448d-4b2c-aade-7993aa243ea3, 1990: https://doi.org/10.5285/94f664e5-10f2-4655-bfe6-44d745f5dca7, 1998: https://doi.org/10.5285/1e050028-5c55-42f4-a0ea-c895d827b824, and 2007: https://doi.org/10.5285/bf189c57-61eb-4339-a7b3-d2e81fdde28d; Landscape linear feature data 1984: https://doi.org/10.5285/a3f5665c-94b2-4c46-909e-a98be97857e5, 1990: https://doi.org/10.5285/311daad4-bc8c-485a-bc8a-e0d054889219, 1998: https://doi.org/10.5285/8aaf6f8c-c245-46bb-8a2a-f0db012b2643 and 2007: https://doi.org/10.5285/e1d31245-4c0a-4dee-b36c-b23f1a697f88, Landscape point feature data 1984: https://doi.org/10.5285/124b872e-036e-4dd3-8316-476b5f42c16e, 1990: https://doi.org/10.5285/1481bc63-80d7-4d18-bcba-8804aa0a9e1b, 1998: https://doi.org/10.5285/ed10944f-40c8-4913-b3f5-13c8e844e153 and 2007: https://doi.org/10.5285/55dc5fd7-d3f7-4440-b8a7-7187f8b0550b.

Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China.

PubMed

Zhao, Qi; Li, Shanshan; Cao, Wei; Liu, De-Li; Qian, Quan; Ren, Hongyan; Ding, Fan; Williams, Gail; Huxley, Rachel; Zhang, Wenyi; Guo, Yuming

2018-04-20

There is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China. We examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s. Data on daily HFMD (children 0-14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009-2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of HFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-HFMD associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions. During 2009-2014, >11 million HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature-HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately 20°C, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of HFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): −13.5%, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI: −33.3%, 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HFMD may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China. Our estimates suggest that the association between temperature and HFMD varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0-14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3062.

Rainfall extremes, weather and climatic characterization over complex terrain: A data-driven approach based on signal enhancement methods and extreme value modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pineda, Luis E.; Willems, Patrick

2017-04-01

Weather and climatic characterization of rainfall extremes is both of scientific and societal value for hydrometeorogical risk management, yet discrimination of local and large-scale forcing remains challenging in data-scarce and complex terrain environments. Here, we present an analysis framework that separate weather (seasonal) regimes and climate (inter-annual) influences using data-driven process identification. The approach is based on signal-to-noise separation methods and extreme value (EV) modeling of multisite rainfall extremes. The EV models use a semi-automatic parameter learning [1] for model identification across temporal scales. At weather scale, the EV models are combined with a state-based hidden Markov model [2] to represent the spatio-temporal structure of rainfall as persistent weather states. At climatic scale, the EV models are used to decode the drivers leading to the shift of weather patterns. The decoding is performed into a climate-to-weather signal subspace, built via dimension reduction of climate model proxies (e.g. sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation) We apply the framework to the Western Andean Ridge (WAR) in Ecuador and Peru (0-6°S) using ground data from the second half of the 20th century. We find that the meridional component of winds is what matters for the in-year and inter-annual variability of high rainfall intensities alongside the northern WAR (0-2.5°S). There, low-level southerly winds are found as advection drivers for oceanic moist of the normal-rainy season and weak/moderate the El Niño (EN) type; but, the strong EN type and its unique moisture surplus is locally advected at lowlands in the central WAR. Moreover, the coastal ridges, south of 3°S dampen meridional airflows, leaving local hygrothermal gradients to control the in-year distribution of rainfall extremes and their anomalies. Overall, we show that the framework, which does not make any prior assumption on the explanatory power of the weather and climate drivers, allows identification of well-known features of the regional climate in a purely data-driven fashion. Thus, this approach shows potential for characterization of precipitation extremes in data-scarce and orographically complex regions in which model reconstructions are the only climate proxies References [1] Mínguez, R., F.J. Méndez, C. Izaguirre, M. Menéndez, and I.J. Losada (2010), Pseudooptimal parameter selection of non-stationary generalized extreme value models for environmental variables, Environ. Modell. Softw. 25, 1592-1607. [2] Pineda, L., P. Willems (2016), Multisite Downscaling of Seasonal Predictions to Daily Rainfall Characteristics over Pacific-Andean River Basins in Ecuador and Peru using a non-homogenous hidden Markov model, J. Hydrometeor, 17(2), 481-498, doi:10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1, http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JHM-D-15-0040.1

Soil moisture under contrasted atmospheric conditions in Eastern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azorin-Molina, César; Cerdà, Artemi; Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M.

2014-05-01

Soil moisture plays a key role on the recently abandoned agriculture land where determine the recovery and the erosion rates (Cerdà, 1995), on the soil water repellency degree (Bodí et al., 2011) and on the hydrological cycle (Cerdà, 1999), the plant development (García Fayos et al., 2000) and the seasonality of the geomorphological processes (Cerdà, 2002). Moreover, Soil moisture is a key factor on the semiarid land (Ziadat and Taimeh, 2013), on the productivity of the land (Qadir et al., 2013) and soils treated with amendments (Johnston et al., 2013) and on soil reclamation on drained saline-sodic soils (Ghafoor et al., 2012). In previous study (Azorin-Molina et al., 2013) we investigated the intraannual evolution of soil moisture in soils under different land managements in the Valencia region, Eastern Spain, and concluded that soil moisture recharges are much controlled by few heavy precipitation events; 23 recharge episodes during 2012. Most of the soil moisture recharge events occurred during the autumn season under Back-Door cold front situations. Additionally, sea breeze front episodes brought isolated precipitation and moisture to mountainous areas within summer (Azorin-Molina et al., 2009). We also evidenced that the intraanual evolution of soil moisture changes are positively and significatively correlated (at p<0.01) with the amount of measured precipitation. In this study we analyze the role of other crucial atmospheric parameters (i.e., temperature, relative humidity, global solar radiation, and wind speed and wind direction) in the intraanual evolution of soil moisture; focussing our analyses on the soil moisture discharge episodes. Here we present 1-year of soil moisture measurements at two experimental sites in the Valencia region, one representing rainfed orchard typical from the Mediterranean mountains (El Teularet-Sierra de Enguera), and a second site corresponding to an irrigated orange crop (Alcoleja). Key Words: Soil Moisture Discharges, Intraannual changes, Atmospheric parameters, Eastern Spain Acknowledgements The research projects GL2008-02879/BTE, LEDDRA 243857 and RECARE FP7 project 603498 supported this research. References: Azorin-Molina, C., Connell, B.H., Baena-Calatrava, R. 2009. Sea-breeze convergence zones from AVHRR over the Iberian Mediterranean Area and the Isle of Mallorca, Spain. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 48 (10), 2069-2085. Azorin-Molina, C., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., Cerdà, A. 2013. Soil moisture changes in two experimental sites in Eastern Spain. Irrigation versus rainfed orchards under organic farming. EGU, Geophysical Research Abstracts, EGU2013-13286. Bodí, M.B., Mataix-Solera, J., Doerr, S.H. & Cerdà, A. 2011. The wettability of ash from burned vegetation and its relationship to Mediterranean plant species type, burn severity and total organic carbon content. Geoderma, 160, 599-607. 10.1016/j.geoderma.2010.11.009 Cerdà, A. 1995. Soil moisture regime under simulated rainfall in a three years abandoned field in Southeast Spain. Physics and Chemistry of The Earth, 20 (3-4), 271-279. Cerdà, A. 1999. Seasonal and spatial variations in infiltration rates in badland surfaces under Mediterranean climatic conditions. Water Resources Research, 35 (1) 319-328. Cerdà, A. 2002. The effect of season and parent material on water erosion on highly eroded soils in eastern Spain. Journal of Arid Environments, 52, 319-337. García-Fayos, P. García-Ventoso, B. Cerdà, A. 2000. Limitations to Plant establishment on eroded slopes in Southeastern Spain. Journal of Vegetation Science, 11- 77- 86. Ghafoor, A., Murtaza, G., Rehman, M. Z., Saifullah Sabir, M. 2012. Reclamation and salt leaching efficiency for tile drained saline-sodic soil using marginal quality water for irrigating rice and wheat crops. Land Degradation & Development, 23: 1 -9. DOI 10.1002/ldr.1033 Johnston, C. R., Vance, G. F., Ganjegunte, G. K. 2013. Soil properties changes following irrigation with coalbed natural gas water: role of water treatments, soil amendments and land suitability. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 350- 362. DOI 10.1002/ldr.1132 Qadir, M., Noble, A. D., Chartres, C. 2013. Adapting to climate change by improving water productivity of soil in dry areas. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 12- 21. DOI 10.1002/ldr.1091 Ziadat, F. M., and Taimeh, A. Y. 2013. Effect of rainfall intensity, slope and land use and antecedent soil moisture on soil erosion in an arid environment. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 582- 590. DOI 10.1002/ldr.2239

The role of spring precipitation deficits on European and North American summer heat wave activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cowan, Tim; Hegerl, Gabi

2017-04-01

Heat waves are relatively short-term climate phenomena with potentially severe societal impacts, particularly on health, agriculture and the natural environment. In water-limited regions, increased heat wave activity over intra-decadal periods is often associated with protracted droughts, as observed over North America's Central and Southern Great Plains in the 1930s and 1950s, highlighting the importance of land surface-atmosphere feedbacks. Here we present an analysis of the covariability of spring precipitation deficit and summer heat waves for North America and Europe, the latter having experienced an increase in summer heat wave frequency since the 1950s (Perkins et al. 2012). Over the Great Plains summer heat waves are significantly earlier, longer and hotter if following dry rather than wet springs, with the mega-heat waves of the 1930s Dust Bowl decade an extreme example (e.g. Cowan et al. 2017). Similar relationships can be found in some parts of Europe for heat wave frequency and duration, namely Southern and Eastern Europe, although the heat wave timing and amplitude (i.e. the hottest events) appear less sensitive to spring drying. Climate model results investigating the relationship between heat waves and precipitation deficit in regions in Europe and North America will also be presented. It is necessary to pinpoint the causes of large decadal variations in heat wave metrics, as seen in the 1930s over North America and more recently across Central Europe, for event attribution purposes and to improve near-decadal prediction. The tight link between spring drought and summer heat waves will also be important for understanding the impacts of these climatic events and supports the development of compound event analysis techniques. References: Cowan, T., G. Hegerl, I. Colfescu, A. Purich and G. Boshcat (2016), Factors contributing to record-breaking heat waves over the Great Plains during the 1930s Dust Bowl. Journal of Climate, doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0436.1 (in press). Perkins, S. E., L. V. Alexander, and J. R. Nairn (2012), Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of observed global heatwaves and warm spells, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L20714, doi:10.1029/2012GL053361.

Waterborne Diseases & Illnesses

MedlinePlus

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Arsenic (Environmental Health Student Portal)

MedlinePlus

... Lead Arsenic Volatile Organic Compounds Plastics Pesticides Climate Change Climate Change Home What is Climate Change Greenhouse Gases ... Lead Arsenic Volatile Organic Compounds Plastics Pesticides Climate Change Climate Change Home What is Climate Change Greenhouse Gases ...

Investigating atmospheric transport processes of trace gases with ICON-ART on different scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schröter, Jennifer; Ruhnke, Roland; Rieger, Daniel; Vogel, Heike; Vogel, Bernhard

2016-04-01

We have extended the global ICON [1] (ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) modelling framework by introducing ICON-ART [2]. ICON is jointly developed by the German Weather Service (DWD) and Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), and is used for numerical weather prediction as well as for future climate predictions. ICON-ART is developed at the KIT with the goal to simulate interactions between trace substances and the state of the atmosphere. For the dynamics (transport and diffusion) of gaseous tracers, the original ICON tracer framework is used. A process splitting approach separates the physical processes. In this study, we present results of the ICON-ART extension, including the full gas-phase chemistry module. This module uses the kpp formalism [3] to generate chemistry modules and the photolysis module is based on Cloud-J7.3 [4]. Photolysis rates are calculated online based on the meteorological state of the atmosphere, as well as on the actual ozone profile and cloud optical parameters. Two simulations are performed with ICON-ART. The first one with physics parameterisations for the numerical weather prediction (NWP) and the second one with that for climate simulation in order to investigate the dynamical influence on the distribution of long-lived as well as of short-lived species by comparing both simulations. The results are evaluated with other model results and with observation. In addition to that, we use aircraft campaign data to validate the results on the regional scale for short term simulations by using the NWP physics. [1] Zängl, G., Reinert, D., Ripodas, P., and Baldauf, M.: The ICON (ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic) modelling framework of DWD and MPI-M: Description of the non-hydrostatic dynamicalcore, Q. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc,141, 563-579, doi:10.1002/qj.2378, 2015 [2] Rieger, D., Bangert, M., Bischoff-Gauss, I., Förstner, J., Lundgren, K., Reinert, D., Schröter, J., Vogel, H., Zängl, G., Ruhnke, R., and Vogel, B.: ICON-ART 1.0 - a new online-coupled model system from the global to regional scale, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 1659-1676, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-1659-2015, 2015 [3] Sandu, A. and Sander, R.: Technical note: Simulating chemical systems in Fortran90 and Matlab with the Kinetic PreProcessor KPP-2.1, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 187-195, doi:10.5194/acp-6-187-2006, 2006 [4] Prather, M. J.: Photolysis rates in correlated overlapping cloud fields: Cloud-J 7.3c, Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 2587-2595, doi:10.5194/gmd-8-2587-2015, 2015

Detecting changes in dynamic and complex acoustic environments

PubMed Central

Boubenec, Yves; Lawlor, Jennifer; Górska, Urszula; Shamma, Shihab; Englitz, Bernhard

2017-01-01

Natural sounds such as wind or rain, are characterized by the statistical occurrence of their constituents. Despite their complexity, listeners readily detect changes in these contexts. We here address the neural basis of statistical decision-making using a combination of psychophysics, EEG and modelling. In a texture-based, change-detection paradigm, human performance and reaction times improved with longer pre-change exposure, consistent with improved estimation of baseline statistics. Change-locked and decision-related EEG responses were found in a centro-parietal scalp location, whose slope depended on change size, consistent with sensory evidence accumulation. The potential's amplitude scaled with the duration of pre-change exposure, suggesting a time-dependent decision threshold. Auditory cortex-related potentials showed no response to the change. A dual timescale, statistical estimation model accounted for subjects' performance. Furthermore, a decision-augmented auditory cortex model accounted for performance and reaction times, suggesting that the primary cortical representation requires little post-processing to enable change-detection in complex acoustic environments. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.24910.001 PMID:28262095

Implications of possible interpretations of "greenhouse gas balance" in the Paris Agreement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millar, R.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Rogelj, J.; Allen, M. R.; Boucher, O.; Forster, P.; Kriegler, E.; Shindell, D. T.

2017-12-01

The main goal of the Paris Agreement as stated in its Article 2 is "Holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels…". Article 4 points to this long-term goal and the need to "… achieve balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases …". The statement on "greenhouse gas balance" is subject to interpretation, and several clarifications are needed in order to make it operational for implementation in climate policies. Here we study possible interpretations from a scientific perspective and analyze their climatic implications. We clarify how the balance referred to in Article 4 of the Paris Agreement applies to anthropogenic sources and anthropogenic sinks and how the implications for individual gases depends strongly on the emission metrics used to relate them. We also show that the way in which balance is interpreted, achieved and maintained influences the anticipated temperature outcome over time. For example, achieving and maintaining net zero CO2-equivalent emissions calculated with the widely used metric Global Warming Potential with a horizon of 100 years (GWP100) - adopted for the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and in UNFCCC reporting - would result in a peak and decline in global mean temperature. Adopting a different metric, like GWP* (Allen et al., 2016), would result in global mean temperatures remaining approximately constant once net zero CO2-equivalent emissions are achieved and maintained. Policymakers should be aware of these issues and choices and determine which approach is most appropriate in the context of the goals of the Paris Agreement.Reference:Allen, Fuglestvedt, Shine, Reisinger, Pierrehumbert, Forster: New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants. Nature Climate Change (2016). doi:10.1038/nclimate2998

New solutions for climate network visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nocke, Thomas; Buschmann, Stefan; Donges, Jonathan F.; Marwan, Norbert

2016-04-01

An increasing amount of climate and climate impact research methods deals with geo-referenced networks, including energy, trade, supply-chain, disease dissemination and climatic tele-connection networks. At the same time, the size and complexity of these networks increases, resulting in networks of more than hundred thousand or even millions of edges, which are often temporally evolving, have additional data at nodes and edges, and can consist of multiple layers even in real 3D. This gives challenges to both the static representation and the interactive exploration of these networks, first of all avoiding edge clutter ("edge spagetti") and allowing interactivity even for unfiltered networks. Within this presentation, we illustrate potential solutions to these challenges. Therefore, we give a glimpse on a questionnaire performed with climate and complex system scientists with respect to their network visualization requirements, and on a review of available state-of-the-art visualization techniques and tools for this purpose (see as well Nocke et al., 2015). In the main part, we present alternative visualization solutions for several use cases (global, regional, and multi-layered climate networks) including alternative geographic projections, edge bundling, and 3-D network support (based on CGV and GTX tools), and implementation details to reach interactive frame rates. References: Nocke, T., S. Buschmann, J. F. Donges, N. Marwan, H.-J. Schulz, and C. Tominski: Review: Visual analytics of climate networks, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 22, 545-570, doi:10.5194/npg-22-545-2015, 2015

Global carbon budget 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Peters, G. P.; Ciais, P.; Friedlingstein, P.; Jones, S. D.; Sitch, S.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Boden, T. A.; Bopp, L.; Bozec, Y.; Canadell, J. G.; Chevallier, F.; Cosca, C. E.; Harris, I.; Hoppema, M.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Jain, A.; Johannessen, T.; Kato, E.; Keeling, R. F.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landa, C. S.; Landschützer, P.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Marland, G.; Mathis, J. T.; Metzl, N.; Nojiri, Y.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Peters, W.; Pfeil, B.; Poulter, B.; Raupach, M. R.; Regnier, P.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Salisbury, J. E.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Segschneider, J.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Werf, G. R.; Viovy, N.; Wang, Y.-P.; Wanninkhof, R.; Wiltshire, A.; Zeng, N.

2014-09-01

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent Dynamic Global Vegetation Models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the variability and mean land and ocean fluxes to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, 2.3% above 2012, contining the growth trend in these emissions. ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was high in 2013 reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr-1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870-2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living dataset (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014). Italic font highlights significant methodological changes and results compared to the Le Quéré et al. (2014) manuscript that accompanies the previous version of this living data.

Observational evidence of fire-driven changes to tropical cloudiness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tosca, Michael; Diner, David; Garay, Michael; Kalashnikova, Olga

2014-05-01

Anthropogenic fires in the tropics emit smoke aerosols that affect cloud dynamics, meteorology and climate (Tosca et al., 2013). We developed a new technique to observationally quantify the cloud response to biomass burning aerosols using aerosol retrievals from the Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and non-coincident cloud retrievals from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from collocated morning and afternoon overpasses. The Global Fire Emissions Database, version 3 and Level 2 data from scenes acquired between 2006 and 2010 were used to quantify changes in cloud fraction from morning (10:30am local time) to afternoon (1:30pm local time) in the presence of varying fire-aerosol burdens. This temporal offset allowed for analysis of the evolution of clouds in the presence of aerosols, something that previous methods using coincident observations could not produce. We controlled for large-scale meteorological differences between scenes using reanalysis data from the ERA-interim product and matching scenes with fire smoke to those with no smoke and similar initial (morning) meteorological conditions. Elevated aerosol optical depths (AODs) reduced cloud fraction from morning to afternoon in the Southeast Asia, Central America and northern Africa burning regions. In mostly cloudy conditions, aerosols significantly reduced cloud fraction, but in clear skies, cloud fraction increased. These results support the general hypothesis of a positive feedback loop between anthropogenic burning and cloudiness in tropical regions, and are consistent with previous studies linking smoke aerosols to convective cloud reduction. Tosca, M.G., J.T. Randerson and C.S. Zender (2013), Global impact of smoke aerosols from landscape fires on climate and the Hadley circulation, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 5227-5241, doi: 10.5194/acp-13-5227-2013.

Climate change 101 : understanding and responding to global climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-01-01

To inform the climate change dialogue, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change and the Pew Center on the States have developed a series of brief reports entitled Climate Change 101: Understanding and Responding to Global Climate Change. These reports...

Origin of Martian Interior Layered Deposits (ILDs) by atmospherically driven processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michalski, J. R.; Niles, P. B.

2011-12-01

Since the first photogeologic exploration of Mars, vast mounds of layered sediments found within the Valles Marineris canyon system (Interior Layered Deposits or ILDs) have remained unexplained. Recent spectroscopic results showing that these materials contain coarse-grained hematite [1] and sulfate [2-8] suggest that they are fundamentally similar to layered sulfate deposits seen elsewhere on Mars [3], and are therefore a key piece of Mars' global aqueous history. Layered sulfate deposits (including ILDs) are often considered to have formed in association with transient, wet surface environments caused by groundwater upwelling [9] in the Hesperian. Here, we use spectroscopic mapping along with geomorphic observations and mass balance calculations to demonstrate that the sulfate-bearing ILDs likely did not form due to groundwater upwelling or any similar playa-lacustrine scenario. Instead, the ILDs likely formed from atmospherically driven processes in a configuration similar to that observed today. We suggest that Hesperian layered sulfate deposits formed in response to massive amounts of pyroclastic volcanism and SO2-outgassing that peaked near 3.5-3.7 Ga in a Martian climate that was largely cold and dry. This origin for the ILDs is also applicable to other layered terrain of similar age and characteristics, including sulphate-bearing crater fill, chaos terrains, and the Meridiani Planum sediments. [1] Weitz, C. M., Lane, M. D., Staid, M. & Dobrea, E. N. Gray hematite distribution and formation in Ophir and Candor chasmata. Journal of Geophysical Research-Planets 113, doi:E02016 10.1029/2007je002930 (2008). [2] Wendt, L. et al. Sulfates and iron oxides in Ophir Chasma, Mars, based on OMEGA and CRISM observations. Icarus 213, 86-103, doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2011.02.013 (2011). [3] Murchie, S. et al. Evidence for the origin of layered deposits in Candor Chasma, Mars, from mineral composition and hydrologic modeling. Journal of Geophysical Research-Planets 114, doi:E00d05 10.1029/2009je003343 (2009). [4] Mangold, N. et al. Spectral and geological study of the sulfate-rich region of West Candor Chasma, Mars. Icarus 194, 519-543, doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2007.10.021 (2008). [5] Le Deit, L. et al. Morphology, stratigraphy, and mineralogical composition of a layered formation covering the plateaus around Valles Marineris, Mars: Implications for its geological history. Icarus 208, 684-703, doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2010.03.012 (2010). [6] Gendrin, A. et al. Suffates in martian layered terrains: the OMEGA/Mars Express view. Science 307, 1587-1591, doi:10.1126/science.1109087 (2005). [7] Bibring, J.-P. et al. Coupled Ferric Oxides and Sulfates on the Martian Surface. Science 317, 1206-1210, doi:10.1126/science.1144174 (2007). [8] Roach, L. H., Mustard, J. F., Lane, M. D., Bishop, J. L. & Murchie, S. L. Diagenetic haematite and sulfate assemblages in Valles Marineris. Icarus 207, 659-674, doi:10.1016/j.icarus.2009.11.029 (2010). [9] Andrews-Hanna, J. C. & Lewis, K. W. Early Mars hydrology: 2. Hydrological evolution in the Noachian and Hesperian epochs. Journal of Geophysical Research-Planets 116, doi:E02007 10.1029/2010je003709 (2011).

3S2: Behavioral Response Studies of Cetaceans to Navy Sonar Signals in Norwegian Waters

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-09-30

severity of behavioral changes observed during experimental exposures of killer (Orcinus orca), long-finned pilot (Globicephala melas ), and sperm...finned pilot whales (Globicephala melas ). Marine Mammal sci (DOI: 10.1111/mms.12099). Antunes R., Kvadsheim P.H., Lam F.P.A., Tyack, P.L., Thomas, L... melas ). Mar. Poll. Bull. (DOI: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2014.03.056) Aoki K, Sakai M, Miller PJO, Visser F, Sato K (2013) Body contact and synchronous dives

Project VALOR: Trajectories of Change in PTSD in Combat-Exposed Veterans

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-10-01

Implications for ICD–11. Journal Of Abnormal Psychology , 126(3), 355- 366. doi:10.1037/abn0000252 PRESENTATIONS Black, S.K., Harwell, A.M., Klein, A.B...mental health in a nationally representative sample of U.S. OEF/OIF veterans. Journal of Abnormal Psychology , 120, 797– 806. http://dx .doi.org...Marx, 150 South Huntington Avenue (116B-3), Boston, MA 02130. E-mail: Karen.Mitchell5@va.gov or Brian.Marx@va.gov Journal of Abnormal Psychology In

Taxonomic Changes, Revised Occurrence Records and Notes on the Culicidae of Thailand and Neighboring Countries

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-12-01

Lindesayi Complex were made on the tallest mountain in Thailand, Doi Inthanon, Chiang Mai Province. Two of these collec- tions also contained members of...34Le, 28P and 389L) were examined. Chiang Mai , Chom Tong District, Doi Inthanon, collection 07892, 4 July 1978, seep- age bog, 2,540 m,just below...from the following provinces of Thailand: Chiang Mai , Nakhon Nayok, Nakhon Ratchasima, Narathiwat, Ranung and Trang. 199 5. Aedes (Fin.) jugraensis

Impact of climate change on olive crop flowering at southern Spain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gabaldón-Leal, Clara; Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; de la Rosa, Raúl; León, Lorenzo; Rodríguez, Alfredo; Belaj, Angjelina; Lorite, Ignacio

2016-04-01

Andalusia region (Southern Spain) is the largest olive oil producer in the world with 40% of the total production (1.1millions tons; FAOSTAT, 2013). Predicting flowering dates of olive under future climate conditions has a critical importance as flowering is a critical stage for olive as heat and water stresses during this period have a significant impact on final olive oil yield. The aim of this study was to evaluate the olive flowering dates under future climate conditions. Climate data for the future period was obtained from the ENSEMBLES European Project (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/) with a bias correction in temperature and precipitation with regard with the SPAIN02 dataset (Herrera et al., 2012) (ENS-SP). Flowering of ten different olive cultivars were evaluated under current and forced (greenhouse) climate conditions, applying the bias in temperatures comparing the current period (1981-2010) with the future period (2071-2100) to the current conditions in Cordoba (Andalusia, Spain). These observations allowed obtaining a flowering approach which was applied to the whole Andalusia region. The results showed an average advance in flowering dates about 16 days at the end of the 21st century. With these results different areas within Andalusia region were classified based on the vulnerability caused by the lack of chilling hours accumulation (coastal areas) or by high temperatures during flowering (north and northeast regions). This study has been supported by the project RTA2014-00030-00-00 funded by INIA and FEDER 2014-2020 "Programa Operativo de Crecimiento Inteligente" and IFAPA project AGR6126 from Junta de Andalucía, Spain. FAOSTAT (2013) Food And Agriculture Organization Of The United Nations. Available at http://faostat3.fao.org/browse/Q/QD/E. Accessed 07 January 2016 Herrera S, Gutiérrez JM, Ancell R, Pons MR, Frías MD, Fernández J. 2012. Development and analysis of a 50-year high-resolution daily gridded precipitation dataset over Spain (Spain02). International Journal of Climatology 32(1): 74-85. DOI: 10.1002/joc.2256.

Exploring the Multifaceted Topic of Climate Change in Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Stimach, A. E.

2015-12-01

As the effects of climate change become more profound, climate literacy becomes increasingly important. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) responds to this need through the publication of Our Changing Climate and Living With Our Changing Climate. Both publications incorporate the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the USGCRP's Third National Climate Assessment. Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive, multidisciplinary information related to various topics. Additionally, each chapter closes with a For Further Exploration essay, which addresses specific topics that complement a chapter concept. Web Resources, which encourage additional exploration of chapter content, and Scientific Literature, from which chapter content was derived can also be found at the conclusion of each chapter. Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics, including the scientific principles that govern Earth's climate system and basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate the system. Released in fall 2015, Living With Our Changing Climate takes a more narrow approach and investigates human and ecosystem vulnerabilities to climate change, the role of energy choices in affecting climate, actions humans can take through adaption, mitigation, and policy to lessen vulnerabilities, and psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial. While Living With Our Changing Climate is intended for programs looking to add a climate element into their curriculum, Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course. In a 2015 survey of California University of Pennsylvania undergraduate students using Our Changing Climate, 82% found it comfortable to read and utilized its interactive components and resources. Both ebooks illuminate the multidisciplinary aspect of climate change, providing the opportunity for a more sustainable future.

An Evaluation of Sea Ice Deformation and Its Spatial Characteristics from the Regional Arctic System Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-01

S . Howell, L. Copland, D. R . Mueller, Y . Gauthier, C. G. Fletcher, A. Tivy, M. Bernier, J. Bourgeois, R . Brown, C. R . Burn, C. Duguay, P. Kushner...2008–2012 period exceeding climate model projections. Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L19504, doi:10.1029/2012GL053387. ———, S . L. Smith, M. Sharp , L. Brown...P. Wadhams, R . Forsberg, S . Hanson, H. Skourup, S . Gerland, M. Nicolaus, J.-P. Metaxian, J. Grangeon, J. Haapala, E. Rinne, C. Haas, G. Heygster

Introduction of digital object identifiers (DOI) for seismic networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Evans, Peter; Strollo, Angelo; Clark, Adam; Ahern, Tim; Newman, Rob; Clinton, John; Pequegnat, Catherine; Pedersen, Helle

2015-04-01

Proper attribution for scientific source data is important in promoting transparency and recognising the role of data providers in science. Data sets such as those produced by seismic networks now need to be citable and permanently locatable for research users. Recently the EIDA and IRIS-DMC communities have worked together on development of methods for generation, maintenance and promotion of persistent identifiers for seismic networks. This resulted in a 2014 Recommendation by the International Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) on the use of Digital Object Identifiers (DOI) for seismic networks. These can be cited equivalently to scientific papers, and tools such as DataCite allow the tracking of citations to these datasets. The GEOFON, IRIS and RESIF data centres have now begun to roll-out of these seismic network DOIs. This has involved working with principal investigators to prepare metadata consistent with the FDSN recommendation, preparation of landing pages, and changes to the web sites to promote DOIs where available. This has involved preparing improved descriptions of the data (metadata) and clarifying how individuals and institutions should best be recognised for their contributions to making the data available. We illustrate this process for a few representative networks. We will be in contact with additional network operators to help them establish DOIs for their networks in future.

The Last Millennium Reanalysis: Improvements to proxies and proxy modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tardif, R.; Hakim, G. J.; Emile-Geay, J.; Noone, D.; Anderson, D. M.

2017-12-01

The Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) employs a paleoclimate data assimilation (PDA) approach to produce climate field reconstructions (CFRs). Here, we focus on two key factors in PDA generated CFRs: the set of assimilated proxy records and forward models (FMs) used to estimate proxies from climate model output. In the initial configuration of the LMR [Hakim et al., 2016], the proxy dataset of [PAGES2k Consortium, 2013] was used, along with univariate linear FMs calibrated against annually-averaged 20th century temperature datasets. In an updated configuration, proxy records from the recent dataset [PAGES2k Consortium, 2017] are used, while a hierarchy of statistical FMs are tested: (1) univariate calibrated on annual temperature as in the initial configuration, (2) univariate against temperature as in (1) but calibration performed using expert-derived seasonality for individual proxy records, (3) as in (2) but expert proxy seasonality replaced by seasonal averaging determined objectively as part of the calibration process, (4) linear objective seasonal FMs as in (3) but objectively selecting relationships calibrated either on temperature or precipitation, and (5) bivariate linear models calibrated on temperature and precipitation with objectively-derived seasonality. (4) and (5) specifically aim at better representing the physical drivers of tree ring width proxies. Reconstructions generated using the CCSM4 Last Millennium simulation as an uninformed prior are evaluated against various 20th century data products. Results show the benefits of using the new proxy collection, particularly on the detrended global mean temperature and spatial patterns. The positive impact of using proper seasonality and temperature/moisture sensitivities for tree ring width records is also notable. This updated configuration will be used for the first generation of LMR-generated CFRs to be publicly released. These also provide a benchmark for future efforts aimed at evaluating the impact of additional proxy records and/or more sophisticated physically-based forward models. References: Hakim, G. J., and co-authors (2016), J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., doi:10.1002/2016JD024751 PAGES2K Consortium (2013), Nat. Geosci., doi:10.1038/ngeo1797 PAGES2k Consortium (2017), Sci. Data. doi:10.1038/sdata.2017.88

Maritime Archaeology and Climate Change: An Invitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Jeneva

2016-12-01

Maritime archaeology has a tremendous capacity to engage with climate change science. The field is uniquely positioned to support climate change research and the understanding of past human adaptations to climate change. Maritime archaeological data can inform on environmental shifts and submerged sites can serve as an important avenue for public outreach by mobilizing public interest and action towards understanding the impacts of climate change. Despite these opportunities, maritime archaeologists have not fully developed a role within climate change science and policy. Moreover, submerged site vulnerabilities stemming from climate change impacts are not yet well understood. This article discusses potential climate change threats to maritime archaeological resources, the challenges confronting cultural resource managers, and the contributions maritime archaeology can offer to climate change science. Maritime archaeology's ability to both support and benefit from climate change science argues its relevant and valuable place in the global climate change dialogue, but also reveals the necessity for our heightened engagement.

Estimation of the spatial validity of local aerosol measurements in Europe using MODIS data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcos, Carlos; Gómez-Amo, J. Luis; Pedrós, Roberto; Utrillas, M. Pilar; Martínez-Lozano, J. Antonio

2013-04-01

The actual impact of atmospheric aerosols in the Earth's radiative budget is still associated to large uncertainties [IPCC, 2007]. Global monitoring of the aerosol properties and distribution in the atmosphere is needed to improve our knowledge of climate change. The instrumentation used for this purpose can be divided into two main groups: ground-based and satellite-based. Ground-based instruments, like lidars or Sun-photometers, are usually designed to measure accurate local properties of atmospheric aerosols throughout the day. However, the spatial validity of these measurements is conditioned by the aerosol variability within the atmosphere. Satellite-based sensors offer spatially resolved information about aerosols at a global scale, but generally with a worse temporal resolution and in a less detailed way. In this work, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550nm from MODIS Aqua, product MYD04 [Remer, 2005], is used to estimate the area of validity of local measurements at different reference points, corresponding to the AERONET [Holben, 1998] stations during the 2011-2012 period in Europe. For each case, the local AOD (AODloc) at each reference point is calculated as the averaged MODIS data within a radius of 15 km. Then, the AODloc is compared to the AOD obtained when a larger averaging radius is used (AOD(r)), up to 500 km. Only those cases where more than 50% of the pixels in each averaging area contain valid data are used. Four factors that could affect the spatial variability of aerosols are studied: proximity to the sea, human activity, aerosol load and geographical location (latitude and longitude). For the 76 reference points studied, which are sited in different regions of Europe, we have determined that the root mean squared difference (RMSD) between AODloc and AOD(r) , averaged for all cases, increases in a logarithmic way with the averaging radius (RMSD ? log(r)), while the linear correlation coefficient (R) decreases following a logarithmic trend (R ? -log(r)). Among all the factors studied, the aerosol load is the most influential one in the aerosol spatial variability: for averaging radii smaller than 40 km, the RMSD increases with AODloc. Another important factor is the latitude and longitude: the variation of the RMSD in the AOD with regard to the averaging radius can differ up to a 60%, depending on the location. On the contray, the proximity to the sea and the amount of population surrounding each reference point do not have a noticeable influence compared to the above mentioned factors. Holben, B. N., Eck, T. F., Slutsker, I., Buis, J. P., Setzer, A., Vermote, E., Reagan, J. A., Kaufman, Y., Nakajima, T., Lavenu, F., and Smirnov, A.: AERONET - A federated instrument network and data archive for aerosol characterization, Remote Sens. Environ., 66, 1-16, 1998. IPCC (2007). S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor, H.L. Miller (Eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK & New York, USA. Remer, L. A., y co-authors, 2005: The MODIS aerosol algorithm, products, and validation. J. Atmos. Sci., 62, 947-973. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/JAS3385.1

Glaciological measurements and mass balances from Sperry Glacier, Montana, USA, years 2005-2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, Adam M.; Fagre, Daniel B.; Peitzsch, Erich H.; Reardon, Blase A.; Harper, Joel T.

2017-01-01

Glacier mass balance measurements help to provide an understanding of the behavior of glaciers and their response to local and regional climate. In 2005 the United States Geological Survey established a surface mass balance monitoring program on Sperry Glacier, Montana, USA. This project is the first quantitative study of mass changes of a glacier in the US northern Rocky Mountains and continues to the present. The following paper describes the methods used during the first 11 years of measurements and reports the associated results. From 2005 to 2015, Sperry Glacier had a cumulative mean mass balance loss of 4.37 m w.e. (water equivalent). The mean winter, summer, and annual glacier-wide mass balances were 2.92, -3.41, and -0.40 m w.e. yr-1 respectively. We derive these cumulative and mean results from an expansive data set of snow depth, snow density, and ablation measurements taken at selected points on the glacier. These data allow for the determination of mass balance point values and a time series of seasonal and annual glacier-wide mass balances for all 11 measurement years. We also provide measurements of glacier extent and accumulation areas for select years. All data have been submitted to the World Glacier Monitoring Service and are available at doi:10.5904/wgms-fog-2016-08. This foundational work provides valuable insight about Sperry Glacier and supplies additional data to the worldwide record of glaciers measured using the glaciological method. Future research will focus on the processes that control accumulation and ablation patterns across the glacier. Also we plan to examine the uncertainties related to our methods and eventually quantify a more robust estimate of error associated with our results.

Tools for Interdisciplinary Data Assimilation and Sharing in Support of Hydrologic Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blodgett, D. L.; Walker, J.; Suftin, I.; Warren, M.; Kunicki, T.

2013-12-01

Information consumed and produced in hydrologic analyses is interdisciplinary and massive. These factors put a heavy information management burden on the hydrologic science community. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Office of Water Information Center for Integrated Data Analytics (CIDA) seeks to assist hydrologic science investigators with all-components of their scientific data management life cycle. Ongoing data publication and software development projects will be presented demonstrating publically available data access services and manipulation tools being developed with support from two Department of the Interior initiatives. The USGS-led National Water Census seeks to provide both data and tools in support of nationally consistent water availability estimates. Newly available data include national coverages of radar-indicated precipitation, actual evapotranspiration, water use estimates aggregated by county, and South East region estimates of streamflow for 12-digit hydrologic unit code watersheds. Web services making these data available and applications to access them will be demonstrated. Web-available processing services able to provide numerous streamflow statistics for any USGS daily flow record or model result time series and other National Water Census processing tools will also be demonstrated. The National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center is a USGS center leading DOI-funded academic global change adaptation research. It has a mission goal to ensure data used and produced by funded projects is available via web services and tools that streamline data management tasks in interdisciplinary science. For example, collections of downscaled climate projections, typically large collections of files that must be downloaded to be accessed, are being published using web services that allow access to the entire dataset via simple web-service requests and numerous processing tools. Recent progress on this front includes, data web services for Climate Model Intercomparison Phase 5 based downscaled climate projections, EPA's Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios projections of population and land cover metrics, and MODIS-derived land cover parameters from NASA's Land Processes Distributed Active Archive Center. These new services and ways to discover others will be presented through demonstration of a recently open-sourced project from a web-application or scripted workflow. Development and public deployment of server-based processing tools to subset and summarize these and other data is ongoing at the CIDA with partner groups such as 52 Degrees North and Unidata. The latest progress on subsetting, spatial summarization to areas of interest, and temporal summarization via common-statistical methods will be presented.

Environmental Sensitive Areas (ESAs) changes in the Canyoles river watershed in Eastern Spain since the European Common Agriculture Policies (CAP) implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ángel González Peñaloza, Félix; Cerdà, Artemi

2014-05-01

The Enviromental Sensitive Areas (ESAs) approach to study the Land Degradation is a methodology developed by professor Costas Kosmas et al., (1999) to map environmental sensitive areas and then the impact of Land Degradation and desertification on Mediterranean Type Ecosystems (Salvati et al., 2013). This methodology has been applied mainly to the Mediterranean Belt (Lavado Contador et al., 2009), but other authors adapted the methodology to other climatic regions (Izzo et al., 2013). The ESAs methodology allows mapping changes in the distribution of the sensitive areas to Desertification as a consequence of biophysical or human chances. In the Mediterranean countries of Europe, especially Spain, suffered a dramatic change due to the application of the European Common Agricultural Policies (CAP) after 1992. The objective of the CAP was to implemented policies to improve the environmental conditions of agricultural land. This target is especially relevant in Mediterranean areas of Spain, mainly the South and the East of the country. An Environmental Sensitive Area (ESAs) model (Kosmas et al., 2009) was implemented using Geographical Information System (GIS) tools, to identify, assess, monitor and map the levels of sensitivity to land degradation in the Canyoles river watershed, which is a representative landscape of the Mediterranean belt in Eastern Spain The results show that it was found that after the implementation of CAP, the most sensitive areas have expanded. This increase in degraded areas is driven by the expansion of commercial and chemically managed crops that increased the soil erosion (Cerdà et al., 2009) and that few soil conservation strategies were applied (Giménez Morera et al., 2010). Another factor that triggered Desertification processes is the increase in the recurrencesof forest fires as a consequence of land abandonment (Cerdà and Lasanta, 2005; Cerdà and Doerr, 2007). This contributed to an increase of scrubland. Our research show an increase in the rangeland vegetation that is dominated by scrubland, meanwhile the woodlands are reduced. Circa 50 % of the land that was classified as "Critical" to land degradation after 1985 had been previously classified as "Non-affected". However, not all changes occurred in the Cànyoles watershed are characterized by a negative change; i.e., 82 % of the land has turned from "Critical" values to "Non- sensitive" to land degradation between mid-20th century and recent times. We found this negative trend to be having been caused by the removal of those crops that are most sensitive to land degradation, such as rain-fed crops, and that are mainly located in the west of the studied watershed. Similar findings were found by Zema et al., (2012) when applying the AnnAGNPS model to the agriculture land in Belgiums, Prokop and Poreba (2012) to the India, Miao e t al., (2012) in China and Haile and Fetene (2012) in Ethiopia: man made changes in the landscape that trigger land degradation processes.. Acknowledgements This research was undertaken in the frame of the 7FP project LEDDRA - Land Ecosystem Degradation and Desertification: Assessing the Fit of Responses - ENV, 2009.2.1.3.2. We thank professor Costas Kosmas for his guidance. References Cerdà, A., Doerr, S.H. 2007. Soil wettability, runoff and erodibility of major dry-Mediterranean land use types on calcareous soils. Hydrological Processes, 21, 2325-2336. doi: 10.1016/j.catena.2008.03.010. Cerdà, A., Giménez-Morera, A. y Bodí, M.B. 2009. Soil and water losses from new citrus orchards growing on sloped soils in the western Mediterranean basin. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 34, 1822-1830. DOI: 10.1002/esp.1889 Cerdà, A., Lasanta, A. 2005. Long-term erosional responses after fire in the Central Spanish Pyrenees: 1. Water and sediment yield. Catena, 60, 59-80. Giménez Morera, A., Ruiz Sinoga, J.D. y Cerdà, A. 2010. The impact of cotton geotextiles on soil and water losses in Mediterranean rainfed agricultural land. Land Degradation and Development , 210- 217. DOI: 10.1002/ldr.971. Haile, G.W., and Fetene, M. 2012. Assessment of soil erosion hazard in Kilie catchment, East Shoa, Ethiopia. Land Degradation & Development, 23 (3): 293-306. Miao, C. Y., Yang, L., Chen, X. H., Gao, Y. 2012. The vegetation cover dynamics (1982-2006) in different erosion regions of the Yellow River Basin, China. Land Degradation & Development, 23: 62- 71. DOI 10.1002/ldr.1050 Izzo, M., Araujo, N., Aucelli, P. P. C., Maratea, A., and Sánchez, A. 2013. Land sensitivity to Desertification in the Dominican Republic: an adaptation of the ESA methodology. Land Degradation & Development, 24: 486- 498. DOI 10.1002/ldr.2241 Kosmas, C., Ferrara, A., Briassouli, H., Imeson, A., 1999. Methodology for mapping Environmentally Sensitive Areas (ESAs) to Desertification. In: Kosmas, C., Kirkby, M., Geeson, N. (Eds.), The Medalus project: Mediterranean desertification and land use. Manual of key indicator of desertification and mapping environmentally sensitive areas to desertification. European Union, 31-47. Lavado Contador, J.F., Schnabel, S., Gómez Gutiérrez, A., Pulido Fernández, M., 2009. Mapping sensitivity to land degradation in Extremadura, SW Spain. Land Degradation and Development 20, 129-144. Prokop, P., Poreba, G. J. 2012. Soil erosion associated with an upland farming system under population pressure in Northeast India. Land Degradation & Development, 23: 310- 321. DOI 10.1002/ldr.2147 Salvati, L., Zitti, M., Perini, L. 2013. Fifty years on: long-term patterns of land sensitivity to desertification in Italy. Land Degradation and Development DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2226 Science 61, 174-185. Similar findings were found by Zema et al., (2012) when applying the AnnAGNPS model to the agriculture land in Belgiums, Prokop and Poreba (2012) to the India, Miao e t al., (2012) in China and Haile and Fetene (2012) in Ethiopia: man made changes in the landscape that trigger land degradation processes.. Zema, D. A., Bingner, R. L., Denisi, P., Govers, G., Licciardello, F., Zimbone, S. M. 2012. Evaluation of runoff, peak flow and sediment yield for events simulated by the AnnAGNPS model in a belgian agricultural watershed. Land Degradation & Development, 23: 205- 215. DOI 10.1002/ldr.1068

Regulation of Serotonin-Induced Trafficking and Migration of Eosinophils

PubMed Central

Kang, Bit Na; Ha, Sung Gil; Bahaie, Nooshin S.; Hosseinkhani, M. Reza; Ge, Xiao Na; Blumenthal, Malcolm N.; Rao, Savita P.; Sriramarao, P.

2013-01-01

Association of the neurotransmitter serotonin (5-HT) with the pathogenesis of allergic asthma is well recognized and its role as a chemoattractant for eosinophils (Eos) in vitro and in vivo has been previously demonstrated. Here we have examined the regulation of 5-HT-induced human and murine Eos trafficking and migration at a cellular and molecular level. Eos from allergic donors and bone marrow-derived murine Eos (BM-Eos) were found to predominantly express the 5-HT2A receptor. Exposure to 5-HT or 2,5-dimethoxy-4-iodoamphetamine (DOI), a 5-HT2A/C selective agonist, induced rolling of human Eos and AML14.3D10 human Eos-like cells on vascular cell adhesion molecule (VCAM)-1 under conditions of flow in vitro coupled with distinct cytoskeletal and cell shape changes as well as phosphorylation of MAPK. Blockade of 5-HT2A or of ROCK MAPK, PI3K, PKC and calmodulin, but not Gαi-proteins, with specific inhibitors inhibited DOI-induced rolling, actin polymerization and changes in morphology of VCAM-1-adherent AML14.3D10 cells. More extensive studies with murine BM-Eos demonstrated the role of 5-HT in promoting rolling in vivo within inflamed post-capillary venules of the mouse cremaster microcirculation and confirmed that down-stream signaling of 5-HT2A activation involves ROCK, MAPK, PI3K, PKC and calmodulin similar to AML14.3D10 cells. DOI-induced migration of BM-Eos is also dependent on these signaling molecules and requires Ca2+. Further, activation of 5-HT2A with DOI led to an increase in intracellular Ca2+ levels in murine BM-Eos. Overall, these data demonstrate that 5-HT (or DOI)/5-HT2A interaction regulates Eos trafficking and migration by promoting actin polymerization associated with changes in cell shape/morphology that favor cellular trafficking and recruitment via activation of specific intracellular signaling molecules (ROCK, MAPK, PI3K and the PKC-calmodulin pathway). PMID:23372779

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

Treesearch

Solomon Z. Dobrowski; Sean A. Parks

2016-01-01

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not...

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, J.

2006-12-01

The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C-D-C model) to appraise the grain yield change caused by the climatic change. Also the preliminary test on this model has been done. In selection of the appraisal methods, we take the C-D production function model, which has been proved more mature in the economic research, as our fundamental model. Then, we introduce climate index (arid index) to the C-D model to develop one new model. This new model utilizes the climatic change factor in the economical model to appraise how the climatic change influence the grain yield change. The new way of appraise should have the better application prospect. The economy - climate model (The C-D-C model) has been applied on the eight Chinese regions that we divide; it has been proved satisfactory in its feasibility, rationality and the application prospect. So we can provide the theoretical fundamentals for policy-making under the more complex and uncertain climate change. Therefore, we open a new possible channel for the global climate change research moving toward the actual social, economic life.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Factors Influencing Smallholder Farmers' Climate Change Perceptions: A Study from Farmers in Ethiopia.

PubMed

Habtemariam, Lemlem Teklegiorgis; Gandorfer, Markus; Kassa, Getachew Abate; Heissenhuber, Alois

2016-08-01

Factors influencing climate change perceptions have vital roles in designing strategies to enrich climate change understanding. Despite this, factors that influence smallholder farmers' climate change perceptions have not yet been adequately studied. As many of the smallholder farmers live in regions where climate change is predicted to have the most negative impact, their climate change perception is of particular interest. In this study, based on data collected from Ethiopian smallholder farmers, we assessed farmers' perceptions and anticipations of past and future climate change. Furthermore, the factors influencing farmers' climate change perceptions and the relation between farmers' perceptions and available public climate information were assessed. Our findings revealed that a majority of respondents perceive warming temperatures and decreasing rainfall trends that correspond with the local meteorological record. Farmers' perceptions about the past climate did not always reflect their anticipations about the future. A substantial number of farmers' anticipations of future climate were less consistent with climate model projections. The recursive bivariate probit models employed to explore factors affecting different categories of climate change perceptions illustrate statistical significance for explanatory variables including location, gender, age, education, soil fertility status, climate change information, and access to credit services. The findings contribute to the literature by providing evidence not just on farmers' past climate perceptions but also on future climate anticipations. The identified factors help policy makers to provide targeted extension and advisory services to enrich climate change understanding and support appropriate farm-level climate change adaptations.

Timing properties of phosphor-coated polished LSO crystals.

PubMed

Schmall, Jeffrey P; Roncali, Emilie; Berg, Eric; Viswanath, Varsha; Du, Junwei; Cherry, Simon R

2014-08-07

This study investigates a time-of-flight (TOF)-depth-of-interaction (DOI) detector design for positron emission tomography (PET), based on phosphor-coated lutetium oxyorthosilicate (LSO) scintillator crystals coupled to fast single channel photomultiplier tubes. Interaction of the scintillation light with the phosphor coating changes the pulse shape in a depth-dependent manner. 3 × 3 × 10 mm(3) LSO scintillation crystals with polished surfaces were characterized, with and without phosphor coating, to assess DOI capability and timing properties. Two different phosphor coating geometries were studied: coating of the top surface of the crystal, and the top plus half of the crystal sides. There was negligible depth dependency in the decay time when coating only the top surface, however there was a ∼10 ns difference in end-to-end decay time when coating the top plus half of the crystal sides, sufficient to support the use of three DOI bins (3.3 mm DOI bin width). The rise time of the half-coated phosphor crystal was slightly faster at all depths, compared to uncoated crystals, however the signal amplitude was lower. Phosphor coating resulted in depth-dependent photopeak positions with an energy resolution of 13.7%, at a depth of 1 mm, and 15.3%, at a depth of 9 mm, for the half-coated crystal. Uncoated LSO crystals showed no change in photopeak position as a function of depth, with an energy resolution of 10.4%. The head-on coincidence timing resolution (CTR) of two uncoated LSO crystals was 287 ps using constant fraction discrimination for time pick-off. With phosphor coating, the CTR of the top-coated crystal was 314 ps, compared to 384 ps for the half-coated crystal. We demonstrate that the trade-off between timing resolution and DOI resolution can be controlled by the phosphor coating geometry. Here we present preliminary results demonstrating that good DOI resolution can be achieved with only a modest 26% degradation in CTR.

The Soil Program of the Restoration Seedbank Initiative: addressing knowledge gaps in degraded soils for use in dryland restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Bateman, Amber; Erickson, Todd E.; Turner, Shane; Merritt, David J.

2017-04-01

Global environmental changes and other anthropogenic impacts are rapidly transforming the structure and functioning of ecosystems worldwide. These changes are leading to land degradation with an estimated 25 % of the global land surface being affected. Landscape-scale restoration of these degraded ecosystems has therefore been recognised globally as an international priority. In the resource-rich biodiverse semi-arid Pilbara region of north-west Western Australia hundreds of thousands of hectares are disturbed due to established and emerging iron-ore mine operations. At this scale, the need to develop cost-effective large-scale solutions to restore these landscapes becomes imperative to preserve biodiversity and achieve functionality and sustainability of these ecosystems. The Restoration Seedbank Initiative (RSB) (http://www.plants.uwa.edu.au/ research/restoration-seedbank-initiative) is a five-year multidisciplinary research project that aims to build knowledge and design strategies to restore mine-impacted landscapes in the Pilbara and other arid and semi-arid landscapes worldwide (Kildiseheva et al., 2016). The RSB comprises four research programs that focus on seedbank management and curation, seed storage, seed enhancement, and the use of alternative soil substrates (soil or growing medium program) respectively. These multi-disciplinary programs address the significant challenges of landscape scale restoration in arid systems. In the soil program we follow an integrated approach that includes the characterization of undisturbed ecosystems, assessment of restored soils with the use of soil quality indicators, and design of alternative soil substrates to support the establishment of native plant communities. A series of glasshouse studies and field trials have been conducted in the last three years to advance our knowledge on soil limitations and to provide solutions to effectively overcome these challenges in arid ecosystem restoration. These studies include (i) the determination of ecophysiological indicators influencing drought responses of arid native plants in reconstructed soils (Bateman et al, 2016), ii) the analysis of the influence of climate and edaphic factors in the recruitment of arid zone seedlings (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2016a) and (ii) the evaluation of soil physicochemical and microbiological indicators to assess functionality of restored soils in degraded semiarid ecosystems (Muñoz-Rojas et al., 2016b). Here, we summarize our latest results in the soil program of the RSB, and propose recommendations for integrating soil science in cost-effective landscape-scale restoration practices in ecosystems worldwide. References Bateman A, Lewandrowski W, Stevens J, Muñoz-Rojas M (2016b) Ecophysiological indicators to assess drought responses of arid zone native seedlings in reconstructed soils. Land Degradation & Development, in press, DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2660. Kildisheva OA, Erickson TE, Merritt DJ, Dixon KW (2016), Setting the scene for dryland recovery: an overview and key findings from a workshop targeting seed-based restoration. Restoration Ecology 24, S36-S42. Muñoz-Rojas M, Erickson TE, Dixon KW, Merritt DJ (2016) Soil quality indicators to assess functionality of restored soils in degraded semiarid ecosystems. Restoration Ecology 24, S43-S52. DOI: 10.1111/rec.12368 Muñoz-Rojas M, Erickson TE, Martini DC, Dixon KW, Merritt DJ (2016a) Climate and soil factors influencing seedling recruitment of plant species used for dryland restoration. SOIL 2, 287-298. DOI: 10.5194/soil-2016-25

Data Discovery of Big and Diverse Climate Change Datasets - Options, Practices and Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palanisamy, G.; Boden, T.; McCord, R. A.; Frame, M. T.

2013-12-01

Developing data search tools is a very common, but often confusing, task for most of the data intensive scientific projects. These search interfaces need to be continually improved to handle the ever increasing diversity and volume of data collections. There are many aspects which determine the type of search tool a project needs to provide to their user community. These include: number of datasets, amount and consistency of discovery metadata, ancillary information such as availability of quality information and provenance, and availability of similar datasets from other distributed sources. Environmental Data Science and Systems (EDSS) group within the Environmental Science Division at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory has a long history of successfully managing diverse and big observational datasets for various scientific programs via various data centers such as DOE's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM), DOE's Carbon Dioxide Information and Analysis Center (CDIAC), USGS's Core Science Analytics and Synthesis (CSAS) metadata Clearinghouse and NASA's Distributed Active Archive Center (ORNL DAAC). This talk will showcase some of the recent developments for improving the data discovery within these centers The DOE ARM program recently developed a data discovery tool which allows users to search and discover over 4000 observational datasets. These datasets are key to the research efforts related to global climate change. The ARM discovery tool features many new functions such as filtered and faceted search logic, multi-pass data selection, filtering data based on data quality, graphical views of data quality and availability, direct access to data quality reports, and data plots. The ARM Archive also provides discovery metadata to other broader metadata clearinghouses such as ESGF, IASOA, and GOS. In addition to the new interface, ARM is also currently working on providing DOI metadata records to publishers such as Thomson Reuters and Elsevier. The ARM program also provides a standards based online metadata editor (OME) for PIs to submit their data to the ARM Data Archive. USGS CSAS metadata Clearinghouse aggregates metadata records from several USGS projects and other partner organizations. The Clearinghouse allows users to search and discover over 100,000 biological and ecological datasets from a single web portal. The Clearinghouse also enabled some new data discovery functions such as enhanced geo-spatial searches based on land and ocean classifications, metadata completeness rankings, data linkage via digital object identifiers (DOIs), and semantically enhanced keyword searches. The Clearinghouse also currently working on enabling a dashboard which allows the data providers to look at various statistics such as number their records accessed via the Clearinghouse, most popular keywords, metadata quality report and DOI creation service. The Clearinghouse also publishes metadata records to broader portals such as NSF DataONE and Data.gov. The author will also present how these capabilities are currently reused by the recent and upcoming data centers such as DOE's NGEE-Arctic project. References: [1] Devarakonda, R., Palanisamy, G., Wilson, B. E., & Green, J. M. (2010). Mercury: reusable metadata management, data discovery and access system. Earth Science Informatics, 3(1-2), 87-94. [2]Devarakonda, R., Shrestha, B., Palanisamy, G., Hook, L., Killeffer, T., Krassovski, M., ... & Frame, M. (2014, October). OME: Tool for generating and managing metadata to handle BigData. In BigData Conference (pp. 8-10).

Climates Past, Present, and Yet-to-Come Shape Climate Change Vulnerabilities.

PubMed

Nadeau, Christopher P; Urban, Mark C; Bridle, Jon R

2017-10-01

Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.

PubMed

Pyke, Christopher R; Thomas, Roxanne; Porter, Read D; Hellmann, Jessica J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lodge, David M; Chavarria, Gabriela

2008-06-01

Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.

Soil microclimate monitoring in forested and meadow sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freyerova, Katerina; Safanda, Jan

2016-04-01

It is well known fact that forest microclimate differs from open area microclimate (Geiger 1965). Less attention is paid to soil temperatures and their long-term monitoring. To evaluate and compare these two environments from the soil microclimate point of view, Institute of Geophysics in Prague monitors soil and air temperatures in Bedřichov in the Jizerské Hory Mountains (Czech Republic). The soil temperatures are measured in three depths (20, 50 and 100 cm) in forest (700 m a. s. l.) and meadow (750 m a. s. l.). Air temperatures are measured at 2m height both in forest and meadow. Nowadays, we have more than three years long time series. The most of studies and experiments described in literature are short-term ones (in order of days or weeks). However, from short-term experiments the seasonal behaviour and trends can be hardly identified and conclusions on soil temperature reaction to climatic extremes such as heat waves, drought or freeze cannot be done with confidence. These drawbacks of the short-term experiments are discussed in literature (eg. Morecroft et al. 1998; Renaud et al. 2011). At the same, with progression of the global warming, the expected increasing frequency of climatic extremes will affect the future form of forest vegetation (Von Arx et al. 2012). The soil and air temperature series, both from the forest and meadow sites, are evaluated and interpreted with respect to long term temperature characteristics and seasonal trends. The emphasis is given on the soil temperature responses to extreme climatic situations. We examine variability between the localities and depths and spatial and temporal changes in this variability. This long-term monitoring allows us to better understand and examine the behaviour of the soil temperature in extreme weather situations. Therefore, we hope to contribute to better prediction of future reactions of this specific environments to the climate change. Literature Geiger, R., 1965. The climate near the ground, Harvard University Press. Available at: https://books.google.cz/books?id=fTpRAAAAMAAJ. Morecroft, M.D., Taylor, M.E. & Oliver, H.R., 1998. Air and soil microclimates of deciduous woodland compared to an open site. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 90(1-2), pp.141-156. Renaud, V. et al., 2011. Comparison between open-site and below-canopy climatic conditions in Switzerland for different types of forests over 10 years (1998-2007). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 105(1-2), pp.119-127. Available at: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00704-010-0361-0. Von Arx, G., Dobbertin, M. & Rebetez, M., 2012. Spatio-temporal effects of forest canopy on understory microclimate in a long-term experiment in Switzerland. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 166-167, pp.144-155. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.07.018.

Catch crops impact on soil water infiltration in vineyards

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerdà, Artemi; Bagarello, Vincenzo; Iovino, Massimo; Ferro, Vito; Keesstra, Saskia; Rodrigo-Comino, Jesús; García Diaz, Andrés; di Prima, Simone

2017-04-01

Infiltration is the key component of the hydrological cycle (Cerdà, 1999; Bagarello et al.,, 2014; Zema et al., 2016). Infiltration determines the partitioning of rainfall into runoff and subsurface flow (Cerdà, 1996; Bagarello et al., 2006; Wang et al., 2016). In the Mediterranean, agriculture resulted in the degradation of the soil structure, reduction of the organic matter and increase in the soil losses (Cerdà et al., 2009; Laudicina et al., 2015; Iovino et al., 2016; Willaarts et al., 2016). There is an urgent need to restore the agriculture soils to avoid floods, reduce the carbon emissions and avoid reservoir siltation (Aksakal et al., 2016; Ben Slimane et al., 2016; Yagüe et al., 2016). Catch Crops are widespread used due to their impact on the soil fertility (Mwango et al., 2016; Nishigaki et al., 2016 ; Nawaz et al., 2016). Catch crops also increase the amount of organic matter but little is known about the effect on soil infiltration. Two paired plots were selected in Les Alcusses (Moixent municipality) in Eastern Iberian Peninsula to compare the infiltration rates between a 8-years catch crop (Vicia sp) with a control (plough) soil. The measurements were carried out by means of ring infiltrometer in August 2014 and December 2014 under dry and wet conditions (Cerdà, 2001; Di Prima et al., 2016). The results show that the steady-state infiltration rates were 1.8 higher during the summer period, and that the catch crops did not increase the infiltration rates. Acknowledgements The research leading to these results has received funding from the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) under grant agreement n 603498 (RECARE project) and the CGL2013- 47862-C2-1-R and CGL2016-75178-C2-2-R national research projects. References Aksakal, E. L., Sari, S., & Angin, I. (2016). Effects of vermicompost application on soil aggregation and certain physical properties. Land Degradation and Development, 27(4), 983-995. doi:10.1002/ldr.2350 Bagarello, V., Castellini, M., Di Prima, S., & Iovino, M. (2014). Soil hydraulic properties determined by infiltration experiments and different heights of water pouring. Geoderma, 213, 492-501. Bagarello, V., Elrick, D. E., Iovino, M., & Sgroi, A. (2006). A laboratory analysis of falling head infiltration procedures for estimating the hydraulic conductivity of soils. Geoderma, 135, 322-334. Ben Slimane, A., Raclot, D., Evrard, O., Sanaa, M., Lefevre, I., & Le Bissonnais, Y. (2016). Relative contribution of Rill/Interrill and Gully/Channel erosion to small reservoir siltation in mediterranean environments. Land Degradation and Development, 27(3), 785-797. doi:10.1002/ldr.2387 Cerdà, A. (1996). Seasonal variability of infiltration rates under contrasting slope conditions in southeast spain. Geoderma, 69(3-4), 217-232. Cerdà, A. (1999). Seasonal and spatial variations in infiltration rates in badland surfaces under mediterranean climatic conditions. Water Resources Research, 35(1), 319-328. doi:10.1029/98WR01659 Cerdà, A. (2001). Effects of rock fragment cover on soil infiltration, interrill runoff and erosion. European Journal of Soil Science, 52(1), 59-68. doi:10.1046/j.1365-2389.2001.00354.x Cerdà, A., Morera, A. G., & Bodí, M. B. (2009). Soil and water losses from new citrus orchards growing on sloped soils in the western mediterranean basin. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, 34(13), 1822-1830. doi:10.1002/esp.1889 di Prima, S., Lassabatère, L., Bagarello, V., Iovino, M., & Angulo-Jaramillo, R. (2016). Testing a new automated single ring infiltrometer for Beerkan infiltration experiments. Geoderma, 262, 20-34. Iovino, M., Castellini, M., Bagarello, V., & Giordano, G. (2016). Using static and dynamic indicators to evaluate soil physical quality in a sicilian area. Land Degradation and Development, 27(2), 200-210. doi:10.1002/ldr.2263 Laudicina, V. A., Novara, A., Barbera, V., Egli, M., & Badalucco, L. (2015). Long-term tillage and cropping system effects on chemical and biochemical characteristics of soil organic matter in a mediterranean semiarid environment. Land Degradation and Development, 26(1), 45-53. doi:10.1002/ldr.2293 Mamedov, A. I., Bar-Yosef, B., Levkovich, I., Rosenberg, R., Silber, A., Fine, P., & Levy, G. J. (2016). Amending soil with sludge, manure, humic acid, orthophosphate and phytic acid: Effects on infiltration, runoff and sediment loss. Land Degradation and Development, 27(6), 1629-1639. doi:10.1002/ldr.2474 Mwango, S. B., Msanya, B. M., Mtakwa, P. W., Kimaro, D. N., Deckers, J., & Poesen, J. (2016). Effectiveness OF mulching under miraba in controlling soil erosion, fertility restoration and crop yield in the usambara mountains, tanzania. Land Degradation and Development, 27(4), 1266-1275. doi:10.1002/ldr.2332 Nawaz, A., Farooq, M., Lal, R., Rehman, A., Hussain, T., & Nadeem, A. (2016). Influence of sesbania brown manuring and rice residue mulch on soil health, weeds and system productivity of conservation rice-wheat systems. Land Degradation and Development, doi:10.1002/ldr.2578 Nishigaki, T., Shibata, M., Sugihara, S., Mvondo-Ze, A. D., Araki, S., & Funakawa, S. (2016). Effect of mulching with vegetative residues on soil water erosion and water balance in an oxisol cropped by cassava in east cameroon. Land Degradation and Development, doi:10.1002/ldr.2568 Wang, Y., Fan, J., Cao, L., & Liang, Y. (2016). Infiltration and runoff generation under various cropping patterns in the red soil region of china. Land Degradation and Development, 27(1), 83-91. doi:10.1002/ldr.2460 Willaarts, B. A., Oyonarte, C., Muñoz-Rojas, M., Ibáñez, J. J., & Aguilera, P. A. (2016). Environmental factors controlling soil organic carbon stocks in two contrasting mediterranean climatic areas of southern spain. Land Degradation and Development, 27(3), 603-611. doi:10.1002/ldr.2417 Yagüe, M. R., Domingo-Olivé, F., Bosch-Serra, À. D., Poch, R. M., & Boixadera, J. (2016). Dairy cattle manure effects on soil quality: Porosity, earthworms, aggregates and soil organic carbon fractions. Land Degradation and Development, 27(7), 1753-1762. doi:10.1002/ldr.2477 Zema, D. A., Labate, A., Martino, D., & Zimbone, S. M. (2016). Comparing different infiltration methods of the HEC-HMS model: The case study of the mésima torrent (southern italy). Land Degradation and Development, doi:10.1002/ldr.2591

Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science.

PubMed

Visschers, Vivianne H M

2018-01-01

Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty is related to people's concern about climate change, their trust in science, their knowledge about climate change, and their political attitude. The results of a principal component analysis showed that respondents differentiated between perceived ambiguity in climate research, measurement uncertainty, and uncertainty about the future impact of climate change. Using structural equation modeling, it was found that only perceived ambiguity was directly related to concern about climate change, whereas measurement uncertainty and future uncertainty were not. Trust in climate science was strongly associated with each type of uncertainty perception and was indirectly associated with concern about climate change. Also, more knowledge about climate change was related to less strong perceptions of each type of climate science uncertainty. Hence, it is suggested that to increase public concern about climate change, it may be especially important to consider the perceived ambiguity about climate research. Efforts that foster trust in climate science also appear highly worthwhile. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernst, Kathleen M; Van Riemsdijk, Dr. Micheline

This article studies the participation of stakeholders in climate change decision-making in Alaska s National Parks. We place stakeholder participation within literatures on environmental and climate change decision-making. We conducted participant observation and interviews in two planning workshops to investigate the decision-making process, and our findings are three-fold. First, the inclusion of diverse stakeholders expanded climate change decision-making beyond National Park Service (NPS) institutional constraints. Second, workshops of the Climate Change Scenario Planning Project (CCSPP) enhanced institutional understandings of participants attitudes towards climate change and climate change decision-making. Third, the geographical context of climate change influences the decisionmaking process. Asmore » the first regional approach to climate change decision-making within the NPS, the CCSPP serves as a model for future climate change planning in public land agencies. This study shows how the participation of stakeholders can contribute to robust decisions, may move climate change decision-making beyond institutional barriers, and can provide information about attitudes towards climate change decision-making.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ernst, Kathleen M; Van Riemsdijk, Dr. Micheline

This article studies the participation of stakeholders in climate change decision-making in Alaska s National Parks. We place stakeholder participation within literatures on environmental and climate change decision-making. We conducted participant observation and interviews in two planning workshops to investigate the decision-making process, and our findings are three-fold. First, the inclusion of diverse stakeholders expanded climate change decision-making beyond National Park Service (NPS) institutional constraints. Second, workshops of the Climate Change Scenario Planning Project (CCSPP) enhanced institutional understandings of participants attitudes towards climate change and climate change decision-making. Third, the geographical context of climate change influences the decision-making process. Asmore » the first regional approach to climate change decision-making within the NPS, the CCSPP serves as a model for future climate change planning in public land agencies. This study shows how the participation of stakeholders can contribute to robust decisions, may move climate change decision-making beyond institutional barriers, and can provide information about attitudes towards climate change decision-making.« less

The climate change-infectious disease nexus: is it time for climate change syndemics?

PubMed

Heffernan, Claire

2013-12-01

Conceptualizing climate as a distinct variable limits our understanding of the synergies and interactions between climate change and the range of abiotic and biotic factors, which influence animal health. Frameworks such as eco-epidemiology and the epi-systems approach, while more holistic, view climate and climate change as one of many discreet drivers of disease. Here, I argue for a new paradigmatic framework: climate-change syndemics. Climate-change syndemics begins from the assumption that climate change is one of many potential influences on infectious disease processes, but crucially is unlikely to act independently or in isolation; and as such, it is the inter-relationship between factors that take primacy in explorations of infectious disease and climate change. Equally importantly, as climate change will impact a wide range of diseases, the frame of analysis is at the collective rather than individual level (for both human and animal infectious disease) across populations.

A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2013-10-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Public Perception of Climate Change: The Importance of Knowledge and Cultural Worldviews.

PubMed

Shi, Jing; Visschers, Vivianne H M; Siegrist, Michael

2015-12-01

The importance of knowledge for lay people's climate change concerns has been questioned in recent years, as it had been suggested that cultural values are stronger predictors of concern about climate change than knowledge. Studies that simultaneously measured knowledge related to climate change and cultural values have, however, been missing. We conducted a mail survey in the German-speaking part of Switzerland (N = 1,065). Results suggested that cultural worldviews and climate-related knowledge were significantly related with people's concern about climate change. Also, cultural worldviews and climate-relevant knowledge appeared important for people's willingness to change behaviors and to accept climate change policies. In addition, different types of knowledge were found to have different impacts on people's concern about climate change, their willingness to change behaviors, and their acceptance of policies about climate change. Specifically, causal knowledge significantly increased concern about climate change and willingness to support climate-friendly policies. We therefore concluded that risk communication should focus on causal knowledge, provided this knowledge does not threaten cultural values. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji.

PubMed

Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

2014-01-01

Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes.

Conceptualizing Climate Change in the Context of a Climate System: Implications for Climate and Environmental Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shepardson, Daniel P.; Niyogi, Dev; Roychoudhury, Anita; Hirsch, Andrew

2012-01-01

Today there is much interest in teaching secondary students about climate change. Much of this effort has focused directly on students' understanding of climate change. We hypothesize, however, that in order for students to understand climate change they must first understand climate as a system and how changes to this system due to both natural…

43 CFR Appendix B to Part 2 - Internet Addresses

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... Page: http://www.doi.gov 2. DOI FOIA Home Page: http://www.doi.gov/foia/ 3. DOI Reference Guide for Obtaining Information: http://www.doi.gov/foia/foitabl.htm 4. List of DOI Public Affairs Offices: http://www.doi.gov/foia/list.html 5. DOI FOIA Contacts: http://www.doi.gov/foia/contacts.html 6. DOI FOIA...

43 CFR Appendix B to Part 2 - Internet Addresses

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... Page: http://www.doi.gov 2. DOI FOIA Home Page: http://www.doi.gov/foia/ 3. DOI Reference Guide for Obtaining Information: http://www.doi.gov/foia/foitabl.htm 4. List of DOI Public Affairs Offices: http://www.doi.gov/foia/list.html 5. DOI FOIA Contacts: http://www.doi.gov/foia/contacts.html 6. DOI FOIA...

Observations from old forests underestimate climate change effects on tree mortality.

PubMed

Luo, Yong; Chen, Han Y H

2013-01-01

Understanding climate change-associated tree mortality is central to linking climate change impacts and forest structure and function. However, whether temporal increases in tree mortality are attributed to climate change or stand developmental processes remains uncertain. Furthermore, interpreting the climate change-associated tree mortality estimated from old forests for regional forests rests on an un-tested assumption that the effects of climate change are the same for young and old forests. Here we disentangle the effects of climate change and stand developmental processes on tree mortality. We show that both climate change and forest development processes influence temporal mortality increases, climate change-associated increases are significantly higher in young than old forests, and higher increases in younger forests are a result of their higher sensitivity to regional warming and drought. We anticipate our analysis to be a starting point for more comprehensive examinations of how forest ecosystems might respond to climate change.

Opinions and knowledge about climate change science in high school students.

PubMed

Harker-Schuch, Inez; Bugge-Henriksen, Christian

2013-10-01

This study investigates the influence of knowledge on opinions about climate change in the emerging adults' age group (16-17 years). Furthermore, the effects of a lecture in climate change science on knowledge and opinions were assessed. A survey was conducted in Austria and Denmark on 188 students in national and international schools before and after a lecture in climate change science. The results show that knowledge about climate change science significantly affects opinions about climate change. Students with a higher number of correct answers are more likely to have the opinion that humans are causing climate change and that both individuals and governments are responsible for addressing climate change. The lecture in climate change science significantly improved knowledge development but did not affect opinions. Knowledge was improved by 11 % after the lecture. However, the percentage of correct answers was still below 60 % indicating an urgent need for improving climate change science education.

Solar Variability in the Context of Other Climate Forcing Mechanisms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

1999-01-01

I compare and contrast climate forcings due to solar variability with climate forcings due to other mechanisms of climate change, interpretation of the role of the sun in climate change depends upon climate sensitivity and upon the net forcing by other climate change mechanisms. Among the potential indirect climate forcings due to solar variability, only that due to solar cycle induced ozone changes has been well quantified. There is evidence that the sun has been a significant player in past climate change on decadal to century time scales, and that it has the potential to contribute to climate change in the 21st century.

Ultrafine particles from power plants: Evaluation of WRF-Chem simulations with airborne measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forkel, Renate; Junkermann, Wolfgang

2017-04-01

Ultrafine particles (UFP, particles with a diameter < 100 nm) are an acknowledged risk to human health and have a potential effect on climate as their presence affects the number concentration of cloud condensation nuclei. Despite of the possibly hazardous effects no regulations exist for this size class of ambient air pollution particles. While ground based continuous measurements of UFP are performed in Germany at several sites (e.g. the German Ultrafine Aerosol Network GUAN, Birmili et al. 2016, doi:10.5194/essd-8-355-2016) information about the vertical distribution of UFP within the atmospheric boundary layer is only scarce. This gap has been closed during the last years by regional-scale airborne surveys for UFP concentrations and size distributions over Germany (Junkermann et al., 2016, doi: 10.3402/tellusb.v68.29250) and Australia (Junkermann and Hacker, 2015, doi: 10.3402/tellusb.v67.25308). Power stations and refineries have been identified as a major source of UFP in Germany with observed particle concentrations > 50000 particles cm-3 downwind of these elevated point sources. Nested WRF-Chem simulations with 2 km grid width for the innermost domain are performed with UFP emission source strengths derived from the measurements in order to study the advection and vertical exchange of UFP from power plants near the Czech and Polish border and their impact on planetary boundary layer particle patterns. The simulations are evaluated against the airborne observations and the downward mixing of the UFP from the elevated sources is studied.

Weathercasters' views on climate change: A state-of-the-community review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, K.; Perkins, D. R., IV; Myers, T.; Maibach, E.

2017-12-01

As a community of practice, TV weathercasters are positioned at a crucial intersection between climate scientists and the general public. Weathercasters have the opportunity to use their scientific training and public communication skills to educate viewers about climate change. Though early research found high rates of skepticism about climate change among TV weathercasters, the most current and comprehensive analysis to date of TV weathercasters' views on climate change suggests that their views have evolved in several important ways. Surveys of all working TV weathercasters in the United States conducted in 2015, 2016 and 2017 show that the weathercaster community now holds views of climate change that are similar to that of climate scientists—in particular, that human-caused climate change is happening today and it is impacting American communities in many harmful ways. Ninety-five percent of TV weathercasters now believe that climate change (as defined by the American Meteorological Society) is occurring, and certainty in that belief has grown. Nearly 50% of TV weathercasters believe the climate change that has occurred over the past 50 years has been caused mostly (34%), or largely to entirely (15%), by human activity. Additionally, surveys suggest that weathercasters tend to underestimate the scientific consensus on climate change. Weathercasters, on average, estimate 75% of climate scientists believe humans have caused the majority of recent climate change as compared to the actual value of 97%. Despite convergence in weathercasters' climate change beliefs, this analysis suggests that opportunities remain for building climate literacy among America's TV weathercasters. Increasing this personal knowledge of climate change is one of several factors that empower weathercasters to become public climate educators to increase understanding of climate change causes in communities around the country.

Aqueducts and geoglyphs : the response of Ancient Nasca to water shortages in the desert of Atacama (Peru)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Masini, Nicola; Lasaponara, Rosa

2016-04-01

The desert of Atacama is a plateau in South America, covering a 1,000-kilometre strip of land on the Pacific coast, west of the Andes mountains, between Chile and Peru. Due to the confluence of a cold ocean current (the Humboldt Current) along with other climatic factors, connected to the particular topography and geomorphology of the region, Atacama desert is one of the most arid areas of the world. In particular, in Nasca region (Southern Peru) the lack of water was (and still is) due to the following causes: (i) the scarce pluvial precipitations and the (ii) high infiltration capacity, and the consequent yearly significant reduction of the surface water (Schreiber & Lancho Rojas 2009). Over the millennia long periods of drought occurred and frequently the lack of water was persistent for several decades. Despite the arid and extreme nature of the environment, this region was populated by important civilizations, such as Paracas and Nasca, which flourished in the Early Intermediate period (200 BCE-500 AD) (Silvermann & Proulx 2002). In particular the Nasca civilization is well-known for its refined and colourful pottery, characterized by a rich icononographic repertory, and, above all, by the huge and mysterious geoglyphs drawn on the arid plateaus of the Rio Grande de Nasca Basin. In order to practice agriculture, the Nasca developed adequate strategies to cope with hostile environmental factors and water scarcity, building a very efficient aqueduct system. They were aided by the fact that underground water was likely enough close to the surface and accessible by constructing wells and underground aqueducts, known with quechua name of puquios (Schreiber & Lancho Rojas 2009; Lasaponara & Masini 2012a; 2012b) The effectiveness of the techniques of hydraulic engineering depended on the climate and the weather events that sometimes underwent drastic changes, as results of the cyclical phenomenon of El Niño Southern Oscillation (commonly called ENSO). Hence the origin of Nasca religious belief based on the worship of the mountain gods, in charge of the rain, and, therefore, related to the worship of water and fertility, including rituals which took place inside and outside Cahuachi pyramids (Orefici 2012; Masini et al. 2008; 2009) and over the famous geoglyphs (Orefici 2009; Reinhard 1988) Therefore, the response of Nasca to make liveable the desert was twofold, aimed at addressing the problem in its causes (climate), by religion, ritual and ceremonial activities, and in its effects, through the construction of aqueducts. The paper deals with the results from 3-year scientific and interdisciplinary investigations conducted by ITACA Mission (Masini et al. 2012) in Peru of CNR-IBAM and IMAA, in the Rio Nasca drainage basin. The main purpose of the investigations was the study of lost and functioning aqueducts using active and passive satellite data along with spatial analysis and geophysics (Cigna et al. 2013: Tapete et al. 2013). In particular, multitemporal analyses of satellite data were carried out in order to identify the different moisture content from upper to lower valley and the seasonal changes from one to another year. Geoelectrical prospecting along with geological investigations enabled us to characterize the table water and to study the hydrogeology of the investigated area. Finally, GIS and spatial analyses provided new information on the relationship between the puquios , settlement patterns and geoglyphs. References Cigna F., Tapete D., Lasaponara R., Masini N. 2013. Amplitude change detection with ENVISAT ASAR to image the cultural landscape of the Nasca region, Peru Archaeological Prospection, 20, 117-131, doi: 10.1002/arp.1451 Lasaponara R., Masini N. 2012a. Following the Ancient Nasca Puquios from Space, In: Lasaponara R., Masini N. (Eds) 2012, Satellite Remote Sensing: a new tool for Archaeology, Springer, Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, ISBN 978-90-481-8800-0, pp. 269-290, doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-8801-7_12 Lasaponara R., Masini N. 2012b. Investigating satellite Landsat TM and ASTER multitemporal data set to discover ancient canals and aqueduct systems, in Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Vol. 7335, Issue 3, 2012, Pages 497-511, 12th International Conference on Computational Science and Its Applications, ICCSA 2012, doi: 10.1007/978-3-642-31137-6_38 Masini N., Rizzo E., Lasaponara R., and Orefici G. 2008, Integrated remote sensing techniques for the detection of buried archaeological adobe structures: preliminary results in Cahuachi (Peru), Advances in Geosciences, 19, 75-82 Masini N., Lasaponara N., Orefici G. 2009, Addressing the challenge of detecting archaeological adobe structures in Southern Peru using QuickBird imagery, Journal of Cultural Heritage, 10S, pp. e3-e9 [doi:10.1016/j.culher.2009.10.005] Masini N., Lasaponara R., Rizzo E., Orefici G. 2012. Integrated Remote Sensing Approach in Cahuachi (Peru): Studies and Results of the ITACA Mission (2007-2010), In: Lasaponara R., Masini N. (Eds) 2012, Satellite Remote Sensing: a new tool for Archaeology, Springer, Verlag Berlin Heidelberg, ISBN 978-90-481-8800-0, doi: 10.1007/978-90-481-8801-7_14; pp. 307-344 Orefici G (2009) Los geoglifos: espacios abiertos y ceremonias colectivas. In Nasca. El desierto de los Dioses de Cahuachi. Graph Ediciones, Lima, pp. 94-113 Orefici G. (2012), Cahuachi. Capital Teocratica Nasca. Lima: Universidad de San Martin de Porres Reinhard J. (1988) The Nazca Lines, Water and Mountains: An Ethno-archaeological Study. In recent studies in Pre-Columbian Archaeology, N. Saunders and O. de Montmollin (eds.), Oxford: British Archaeological Reports, pp. 363-414 Schreiber H, Lancho Rojas J (2009) El control del agua y los puquios de Nasca. In: Nasca. El desierto del los Dioses de Cahuachi, Graph, Lima : 132-151 Silverman H, Proulx D A (2002) The Nasca. Balckwell Publishing Ltd, Malden, USA Tapete D., Cigna F., Masini N., Lasaponara R. 2013. Prospection and monitoring of the archaeological heritage of Nasca, Peru, with ENVISAT ASAR, Archaeological Prospection, 20, 133-147, doi: 10.1002/arp.1449

Low Cloud Feedback to Surface Warming in the World's First Global Climate Model with Explicit Embedded Boundary Layer Turbulence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parishani, H.; Pritchard, M. S.; Bretherton, C. S.; Wyant, M. C.; Khairoutdinov, M.; Singh, B.

2017-12-01

Biases and parameterization formulation uncertainties in the representation of boundary layer clouds remain a leading source of possible systematic error in climate projections. Here we show the first results of cloud feedback to +4K SST warming in a new experimental climate model, the ``Ultra-Parameterized (UP)'' Community Atmosphere Model, UPCAM. We have developed UPCAM as an unusually high-resolution implementation of cloud superparameterization (SP) in which a global set of cloud resolving arrays is embedded in a host global climate model. In UP, the cloud-resolving scale includes sufficient internal resolution to explicitly generate the turbulent eddies that form marine stratocumulus and trade cumulus clouds. This is computationally costly but complements other available approaches for studying low clouds and their climate interaction, by avoiding parameterization of the relevant scales. In a recent publication we have shown that UP, while not without its own complexity trade-offs, can produce encouraging improvements in low cloud climatology in multi-month simulations of the present climate and is a promising target for exascale computing (Parishani et al. 2017). Here we show results of its low cloud feedback to warming in multi-year simulations for the first time. References: Parishani, H., M. S. Pritchard, C. S. Bretherton, M. C. Wyant, and M. Khairoutdinov (2017), Toward low-cloud-permitting cloud superparameterization with explicit boundary layer turbulence, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9, doi:10.1002/2017MS000968.

How Robust Are the Surface Temperature Fingerprints of the Atlantic Overturning Meridional Circulation on Monthly Time Scales?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexander-Turner, R.; Ortega, P.; Robson, J. I.

2018-04-01

It has been suggested that changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) can drive sea surface temperature (SST) on monthly time scales (Duchez et al., 2016, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005667). However, with only 11 years of continuous observations, the validity of this result over longer, or different, time periods is uncertain. In this study, we use a 120 yearlong control simulation from a high-resolution climate model to test the robustness of the AMOC fingerprints. The model reproduces the observed AMOC seasonal cycle and its variability, and the observed 5-month lagged AMOC-SST fingerprints derived from 11 years of data. However, the AMOC-SST fingerprints are very sensitive to the particular time period considered. In particular, both the Florida current and the upper mid-ocean transport produce highly inconsistent fingerprints when using time periods shorter than 30 years. Therefore, several decades of RAPID observations will be necessary to determine the real impact of the AMOC on SSTs at monthly time scales.

USA National Phenology Network observational data documentation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Denny, Ellen G.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Marsh, R. Lee; Posthumus, Erin E.; Crimmins, Theresa M.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2018-04-25

The goals of the USA National Phenology Network (USA-NPN, www.usanpn.org) are to advance science, inform decisions, and communicate and connect with the public regarding phenology and species’ responses to environmental variation and climate change. The USA-NPN seeks to advance the science of phenology and facilitate ecosystem stewardship by providing phenological information freely and openly. To accomplish these goals, the USA-NPN National Coordinating Office (NCO) delivers observational data on plant and animal phenology in several formats, including minimally processed status and intensity datasets and derived phenometrics for individual plants, sites, and regions. This document describes the suite of observational data products delivered by the USA National Phenology Network, covering the period 2009–present for the United States and accessible via the Phenology Observation Portal (http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F78S4N1V) and via an Application Programming Interface. The data described here have been used in diverse research and management applications, including over 30 publications in fields such as remote sensing, plant evolution, and resource management.

U.S. Geological Survey Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units Program—2016–2017 Research Abstracts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dennerline, Donald E.; Childs, Dawn E.

2017-04-20

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has several strategic goals that focus its efforts on serving the American people. The USGS Ecosystems Mission Area has responsibility for the following objectives under the strategic goal of “Science to Manage and Sustain Resources for Thriving Economies and Healthy Ecosystems”:Understand, model, and predict change in natural systemsConserve and protect wildlife and fish species and their habitatsReduce or eliminate the threat of invasive species and wildlife diseaseThis report provides abstracts of the majority of ongoing research investigations of the USGS Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Units program and is intended to complement the 2016 Cooperative Research Units Program Year in Review Circular 1424 (https://doi.org/10.3133/cir1424). The report is organized by the following major science themes that contribute to the objectives of the USGS:Advanced TechnologiesClimate ScienceDecision ScienceEcological FlowsEcosystem ServicesEndangered Species Conservation, Recovery, and Proactive StrategiesEnergyHuman DimensionsInvasive SpeciesLandscape EcologySpecies of Greatest Conservation NeedSpecies Population, Habitat, and Harvest ManagementWildlife Health and Disease

Cumulative Total Middle East/North Africa Freshwater Losses as Seen by NASA GRACE, 2002-15

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-12-08

Cumulative total freshwater losses in North Africa and the Middle East from 2002 to 2015 (in inches) observed by NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission. Total water refers to all of the snow, surface water, soil water and groundwater combined. Groundwater depletion in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, and along the Arabian Peninsula, are leading to large changes in total water storage in the region. Likewise, drought and groundwater pumping is contributing to the drying of the Caspian Sea Region. The Northwest Sahara Aquifer System, which underlies Tunisia and Libya, is also experiencing increasing water stress as shown in the map. Image updated from Voss et al., 2013. Citation of Record: Voss, K. A., J. S. Famiglietti, M. Lo, C. R. de Linage, M. Rodell and S. C. Swenson, Groundwater depletion in the Middle East from GRACE with Implications for Transboundary Water Management in the Tigris-Euphrates-Western Iran Region, Wat. Resour. Res., 49(2), 904-914, DOI: 10.1002/wrcr.20078. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20207

Assessing carbon stocks, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas fluxes in ecosystems of the United States under present conditions and future scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Stackpoole, Sarah

2011-01-01

The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) requires the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) to develop a methodology and conduct an assessment of carbon storage, carbon sequestration, and greenhouse-gas (GHG) fluxes in the Nation's ecosystems. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed and published the methodology (U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-5233) and has assembled an interdisciplinary team of scientists to conduct the assessment over the next three to four years, commencing in October 2010. The assessment will fulfill specific requirements of the EISA by (1) quantifying, measuring, and monitoring carbon sequestration and GHG fluxes using national datasets and science tools such as remote sensing, and biogeochemical and hydrological models, (2) evaluating a range of management and restoration activities for their effects on carbon-sequestration capacity and the reduction of GHG fluxes, and (3) assessing effects of climate change and other controlling processes (including wildland fires) on carbon uptake and GHG emissions from ecosystems.

Social representations of climate change in Swedish lay focus groups: local or distant, gradual or catastrophic?

PubMed

Wibeck, Victoria

2014-02-01

This paper explores social representations of climate change, investigating how climate change is discussed by Swedish laypeople interacting in focus group interviews. The analysis focuses on prototypical examples and metaphors, which were key devices for objectifying climate change representations. The paper analyzes how the interaction of focus group participants with other speakers, ideas, arguments, and broader social representations shaped their representations of climate change. Climate change was understood as a global but distant issue with severe consequences. There was a dynamic tension between representations of climate change as a gradual vs. unpredictable process. Implications for climate change communication are discussed.

Ecohydrological modeling: the consideration of agricultural trees is essential in the Mediterranean area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fader, Marianela; von Bloh, Werner; Shi, Sinan; Bondeau, Alberte; Cramer, Wolfgang

2016-04-01

In the Mediterranean region, climate and land use change are expected to impact on natural and agricultural ecosystems by warming, reduced rainfall and direct degradation of ecosystems. Human population growth and socioeconomic changes, notably on the Eastern and Southern shores, will require increases in food production and put additional pressure on agro-ecosystems and water resources. Coping with these challenges requires informed decisions that, in turn, require assessments by means of a comprehensive ecohydrological model. Here we present here the inclusion of 10 Mediterranean agricultural plants, mainly perennial crops, in an agro-ecosystem model (LPJmL, "Lund-Potsdam-Jena managed Land"): nut trees, date palms, citrus trees, orchards, olive trees, grapes, cotton, potatoes, vegetables and fodder grasses. The model was then successfully tested in three model outputs: agricultural yields, irrigation requirements and soil carbon density. A first application of the model indicates that, currently, agricultural trees consume in average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops. Also, different crops show different magnitude of changes in net irrigation requirements due to climate change, being the increases most pronounced in agricultural trees. This is very relevant since the Mediterranean area as a whole might face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4% and 74% from climate change and population growth if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved. Additionally, future water scarcity might pose further challenges to the agricultural sector: Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain have a high risk of not being able to sustainably meet future irrigation water requirements in some scenarios by the end of the century (1). The importance of including agricultural trees in the ecohydrological models is also shown in the results concerning soil organic carbon (SOC). Since in former model versions, areas with agricultural trees were simulated as perennial grasslands, implementing agricultural trees in LPJmL increased the carbon stock in soils in most of the Mediterranean area. We compared the SOC estimates before and after the implementation of agricultural trees, with the organic carbon density from the HWSD database (2). These data are produced by establishing functions between SOC and soil type, topography, climate variables and land use situation. The number of grid-cells with decreased differences to the HWSD estimates almost doubles the number of grid-cells with increased differences. This means that the development moved LPJmL's results for SOC closer to HWSD values (3). With the model development presented here, LPJmL is now able to simulate in good detail and mechanistically the functioning of Mediterranean agriculture and its linkage with water use and resources. References: (1) Fader, M., von Bloh, W., Shi, S., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W. (2015) : Mediterranean irrigation under climate change: More efficient irrigation needed to compensate increases in irrigation water requirements. HESSD 12, 8459-8504. (2) Hiederer, R. and Köchy, M.: Global Soil Organic Carbon Estimates and the Harmonized World Soil Database. EUR Scientific and Technical Research series - ISSN 1831-9424 (online), doi: 10.2788/13267, 2012. (3) Fader, M., von Bloh, W., Shi, S., Bondeau, A., Cramer, W. (2015): Modelling Mediterranean agro-ecosystems by including agricultural trees in the LPJmL model. Geosci. Model Dev., 8, 3545-3561, 2015.

Climate change and forest diseases

Treesearch

R.N. Sturrock; Susan Frankel; A. V. Brown; Paul Hennon; J. T. Kliejunas; K. J. Lewis; J. J. Worrall; A. J. Woods

2011-01-01

As climate changes, the effects of forest diseases on forest ecosystems will change. We review knowledge of relationships between climate variables and several forest diseases, as well as current evidence of how climate, host and pathogen interactions are responding or might respond to climate change. Many forests can be managed to both adapt to climate change and...

Global Carbon Budget 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Quéré, C.; Moriarty, R.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Friedlingstein, P.; Peters, G. P.; Andres, R. J.; Boden, T. A.; Houghton, R. A.; House, J. I.; Keeling, R. F.; Tans, P.; Arneth, A.; Bakker, D. C. E.; Barbero, L.; Bopp, L.; Chang, J.; Chevallier, F.; Chini, L. P.; Ciais, P.; Fader, M.; Feely, R. A.; Gkritzalis, T.; Harris, I.; Hauck, J.; Ilyina, T.; Jain, A. K.; Kato, E.; Kitidis, V.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Koven, C.; Landschützer, P.; Lauvset, S. K.; Lefèvre, N.; Lenton, A.; Lima, I. D.; Metzl, N.; Millero, F.; Munro, D. R.; Murata, A.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Nakaoka, S.; Nojiri, Y.; O'Brien, K.; Olsen, A.; Ono, T.; Pérez, F. F.; Pfeil, B.; Pierrot, D.; Poulter, B.; Rehder, G.; Rödenbeck, C.; Saito, S.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Steinhoff, T.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; van Heuven, S.; Vandemark, D.; Viovy, N.; Wiltshire, A.; Zaehle, S.; Zeng, N.

2015-12-01

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005-2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr-1 that took place during 2005-2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005-2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of -0.6 [range of -1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870-2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

History of chemically and radiatively important atmospheric gases from the Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prinn, Ronald G.; Weiss, Ray F.; Arduini, Jgor; Arnold, Tim; Langley DeWitt, H.; Fraser, Paul J.; Ganesan, Anita L.; Gasore, Jimmy; Harth, Christina M.; Hermansen, Ove; Kim, Jooil; Krummel, Paul B.; Li, Shanlan; Loh, Zoë M.; Lunder, Chris R.; Maione, Michela; Manning, Alistair J.; Miller, Ben R.; Mitrevski, Blagoj; Mühle, Jens; O'Doherty, Simon; Park, Sunyoung; Reimann, Stefan; Rigby, Matt; Saito, Takuya; Salameh, Peter K.; Schmidt, Roland; Simmonds, Peter G.; Steele, L. Paul; Vollmer, Martin K.; Wang, Ray H.; Yao, Bo; Yokouchi, Yoko; Young, Dickon; Zhou, Lingxi

2018-06-01

We present the organization, instrumentation, datasets, data interpretation, modeling, and accomplishments of the multinational global atmospheric measurement program AGAGE (Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment). AGAGE is distinguished by its capability to measure globally, at high frequency, and at multiple sites all the important species in the Montreal Protocol and all the important non-carbon-dioxide (non-CO2) gases assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (CO2 is also measured at several sites). The scientific objectives of AGAGE are important in furthering our understanding of global chemical and climatic phenomena. They are the following: (1) to accurately measure the temporal and spatial distributions of anthropogenic gases that contribute the majority of reactive halogen to the stratosphere and/or are strong infrared absorbers (chlorocarbons, chlorofluorocarbons - CFCs, bromocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons - HCFCs, hydrofluorocarbons - HFCs and polyfluorinated compounds (perfluorocarbons - PFCs), nitrogen trifluoride - NF3, sulfuryl fluoride - SO2F2, and sulfur hexafluoride - SF6) and use these measurements to determine the global rates of their emission and/or destruction (i.e., lifetimes); (2) to accurately measure the global distributions and temporal behaviors and determine the sources and sinks of non-CO2 biogenic-anthropogenic gases important to climate change and/or ozone depletion (methane - CH4, nitrous oxide - N2O, carbon monoxide - CO, molecular hydrogen - H2, methyl chloride - CH3Cl, and methyl bromide - CH3Br); (3) to identify new long-lived greenhouse and ozone-depleting gases (e.g., SO2F2, NF3, heavy PFCs (C4F10, C5F12, C6F14, C7F16, and C8F18) and hydrofluoroolefins (HFOs; e.g., CH2 = CFCF3) have been identified in AGAGE), initiate the real-time monitoring of these new gases, and reconstruct their past histories from AGAGE, air archive, and firn air measurements; (4) to determine the average concentrations and trends of tropospheric hydroxyl radicals (OH) from the rates of destruction of atmospheric trichloroethane (CH3CCl3), HFCs, and HCFCs and estimates of their emissions; (5) to determine from atmospheric observations and estimates of their destruction rates the magnitudes and distributions by region of surface sources and sinks of all measured gases; (6) to provide accurate data on the global accumulation of many of these trace gases that are used to test the synoptic-, regional-, and global-scale circulations predicted by three-dimensional models; and (7) to provide global and regional measurements of methane, carbon monoxide, and molecular hydrogen and estimates of hydroxyl levels to test primary atmospheric oxidation pathways at midlatitudes and the tropics. Network Information and Data Repository: http://agage.mit.edu/data or http://cdiac.ess-dive.lbl.gov/ndps/alegage.html (https://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/atg.db1001).

Sensitivity of Hurricane Storm Surge to Land Cover and Topography Under Various Sea Level Rise Scenarios Along the Mississippi Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bilskie, M. V.; Hagen, S. C.; Medeiros, S. C.

2013-12-01

Major Gulf hurricanes have a high probability of impacting the northern Gulf of Mexico, especially coastal Mississippi (Resio, 2007). Due to the wide and flat continental shelf, this area provides near-perfect geometry for high water levels under tropical cyclone conditions. Literature suggests with 'very high confidence that global sea level will rise at least 0.2 m and no more than 2.0 m by 2011' (Donoghue, 2011; Parris et al., 2012). Further, it is recognized that the Mississippi barrier islands are highly susceptible to a westward migration and retreating shoreline. With predictions for less frequent, more intense tropical storms, rising sea levels, and a changing landscape, it is important to understand how these changes may affect inundation extent and flooding due to hurricane storm surge. A state-of-the-art SWAN+ADCIRC hydrodynamic model of coastal Mississippi was utilized to simulate Hurricane Katrina with present day sea level conditions. Using present day as a base scenario, past (1960) and future (2050) sea level changes were simulated. In addition to altering the initial sea state, land use land cover (LULC) was modified for 1960 and 2050 based on historic data and future projections. LULC datasets are used to derive surface roughness characteristics, such as Manning's n, and wind reduction factors. The topography along the barrier islands and near the Pascagoula River, MS was also altered to reflect the 1960 landscape. Storm surge sensitivity to topographic change were addressed by comparing model results between two 1960 storm surge simulations; one with current topography and a second with changes to the barrier islands. In addition, model responses to changes in LULC are compared. The results will be used to gain insight into adapting present day storm surge models for future conditions. References Donoghue, J. (2011). Sea level history of the northern Gulf of Mexico coast and sea level rise scenarios for the near future. Climatic Change, 107(1-2), 17-33. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0077-x Parris, A., Bromirski, P., Burkett, V., Cayan, D., Culver, M., Hall, J., . . . Weiss, J. (2012). Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment NOAA Tech Memo OAR CPO-1 (pp. 37). Resio, D. T. (2007). White paper on estimating hurricane inundation probabilities (pp. 125). Vicksburg, MS: U.S. Army Engineering Research and Development Center.

Thermal Regime Change of a Retreating Polythermal Glacier from Repeat Ground Penetrating Radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rippin, D. M.; Willis, I. C.; Sevestre, H.

2014-12-01

Polythermal glaciers (i.e. glaciers that consist of some combination of both warm and cold ice) are common in the Arctic (e.g. Aschwanden and Blatter, 2005). Recent work (e.g. Rippin et al. 2011; Gusmeroli et al., 2012; Wilson and Flowers, 2013; Wilson et al., 2013) has focussed on how their polythermal structure might change in response to a warming climate. These studies suggest that the nature of future thermal regime change is complex, such that the relative volume of temperate ice in a shrinking glacier may increase or decrease, depending on local geographical, meteorological and hydrological parameters. Here, we present a unique data-set from the well-studied glacier Midtre Lovénbreen in Svalbard, which has shown continued and sustained retreat in recent years. We have a network of ground penetrating radar (GPR) lines from this glacier, first surveyed in 2006 and then repeat-surveyed along exactly the same lines in 2012. Despite significant retreat and thinning, our data suggests that minimal changes in thermal regime have taken place over this period, reinforcing previous observations of a significant lag in the rate at which the thermal regime responds to mass balance changes (cf. Rippin et al., 2011). Such a 'thermal lag' has implications for evolving hydrological and dynamical behaviour of these glaciers, and also for the future mass balance response. In this paper, we comment on the observed changes and consider the implications for our understanding of future thermal regime evolution. ReferencesAschwanden, A., and H. Blatter. 2005. Meltwater production due to strain heating in Storglaciären, Sweden. JGR, 110, doi:10.1029/2005JF000,328. Rippin, D.M., J.L. Carrivick and C. Williams. 2011. Evidence towards a thermal lag in the response of Kårsaglaciären, northern Sweden, to climate change. J. Glac., 57(205), 895-903. Gusmeroli, A., P. Jansson, R. Pettersson and T. Murray. 2012. Twenty years of cold surface layer thinning at Storglaciaren, sub-Arctic Sweden, 1989-2009. J. Glac., 58(207), 3-10. Wilson, N.J., G.E. Flowers and L. Mingo. 2013. Comparison of thermal structure and evolution between neighboring subarctic glaciers. JGR, 118(3), 1443-1459. Wilson, N.J. and G.E. Flowers. 2013. Environmental controls on the thermal structure of alpine glaciers. The Cryosphere, 7(1), 167-182.

Sequential planning of flood protection infrastructure under limited historic flood record and climate change uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dittes, Beatrice; Špačková, Olga; Straub, Daniel

2017-04-01

Flood protection is often designed to safeguard people and property following regulations and standards, which specify a target design flood protection level, such as the 100-year flood level prescribed in Germany (DWA, 2011). In practice, the magnitude of such an event is only known within a range of uncertainty, which is caused by limited historic records and uncertain climate change impacts, among other factors (Hall & Solomatine, 2008). As more observations and improved climate projections become available in the future, the design flood estimate changes and the capacity of the flood protection may be deemed insufficient at a future point in time. This problem can be mitigated by the implementation of flexible flood protection systems (that can easily be adjusted in the future) and/or by adding an additional reserve to the flood protection, i.e. by applying a safety factor to the design. But how high should such a safety factor be? And how much should the decision maker be willing to pay to make the system flexible, i.e. what is the Value of Flexibility (Špačková & Straub, 2017)? We propose a decision model that identifies cost-optimal decisions on flood protection capacity in the face of uncertainty (Dittes et al. 2017). It considers sequential adjustments of the protection system during its lifetime, taking into account its flexibility. The proposed framework is based on pre-posterior Bayesian decision analysis, using Decision Trees and Markov Decision Processes, and is fully quantitative. It can include a wide range of uncertainty components such as uncertainty associated with limited historic record or uncertain climate or socio-economic change. It is shown that since flexible systems are less costly to adjust when flood estimates are changing, they justify initially lower safety factors. Investigation on the Value of Flexibility (VoF) demonstrates that VoF depends on the type and degree of uncertainty, on the learning effect (i.e. kind and quality of information that we will gather in the future) and on the formulation of the optimization problem (risk-based vs. rule-based approach). The application of the framework is demonstrated on catchments in Germany. References: DWA (Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft Abwasser und Abfall eV.) 2011. Merkblatt DWA-M 507-1: Deiche an Fließgewässern. (A. Bieberstein, Ed.). Hennef: DWA Deutsche Vereinigung für Wasserwirtschaft, Abwasser und Abfall e. V. Hall, J., & Solomatine, D. 2008. A framework for uncertainty analysis in flood risk management decisions. International Journal of River Basin Management, 6(2), 85-98. http://doi.org/10.1080/15715124.2008.9635339 Špačková, O. & Straub, D. 2017. Long-term adaption decisions via fully and partially observable Markov decision processes. Sustainable and Resilient Infrastructure. In print.

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

PubMed Central

Wan, Jizhong

2016-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves. PMID:27326373

Accounting for multiple climate components when estimating climate change exposure and velocity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2015-01-01

The effect of anthropogenic climate change on organisms will likely be related to climate change exposure and velocity at local and regional scales. However, common methods to estimate climate change exposure and velocity ignore important components of climate that are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms.We develop a novel index of climate change (climate overlap) that simultaneously estimates changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables. Specifically, we estimate the overlap between multivariate normal probability distributions representing historical and current or projected future climates. We provide methods for estimating the statistical significance of climate overlap values and methods to estimate velocity using climate overlap.We show that climates have changed significantly across 80% of the continental United States in the last 32 years and that much of this change is due to changes in the variation and correlation between weather variables (two statistics that are rarely incorporated into climate change studies). We also show that projected future temperatures are predicted to be locally novel (<1·5% overlap) across most of the global land surface and that exposure is likely to be highest in areas with low historical climate variation. Last, we show that accounting for changes in the variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect velocity estimates; mean velocity estimates in the continental United States were between 3·1 and 19·0 km yr−1when estimated using climate overlap compared to 1·4 km yr−1 when estimated using traditional methods.Our results suggest that accounting for changes in the means, variation and correlation between multiple weather variables can dramatically affect estimates of climate change exposure and velocity. These climate components are known to affect the ecology and evolution of organisms, but are ignored by most measures of climate change. We conclude with a set of future directions and recommend future work to determine which measures of climate change exposure and velocity are most related to biological responses to climate change.

An inventory of Arctic Ocean data in the World Ocean Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zweng, Melissa M.; Boyer, Tim P.; Baranova, Olga K.; Reagan, James R.; Seidov, Dan; Smolyar, Igor V.

2018-03-01

The World Ocean Database (WOD) contains over 1.3 million oceanographic casts (where cast refers to an oceanographic profile or set of profiles collected concurrently at more than one depth between the ocean surface and ocean bottom) collected in the Arctic Ocean basin and its surrounding marginal seas. The data, collected from 1849 to the present, come from many submitters and countries, and were collected using a variety of instruments and platforms. These data, along with the derived products World Ocean Atlas (WOA) and the Arctic Regional Climatologies, are exceptionally useful - the data are presented in a standardized, easy to use format and include metadata and quality control information. Collecting data in the Arctic Ocean is challenging, and coverage in space and time ranges from excellent to nearly non-existent. WOD continues to compile a comprehensive collection of Arctic Ocean profile data, ideal for oceanographic, environmental and climatic analyses (https://doi.org/10.7289/V54Q7S16).

Long-term observations of tropospheric particle number size distributions and equivalent black carbon mass concentrations in the German Ultrafine Aerosol Network (GUAN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birmili, W.; Weinhold, K.; Merkel, M.; Rasch, F.; Sonntag, A.; Wiedensohler, A.; Bastian, S.; Schladitz, A.; Löschau, G.; Cyrys, J.; Pitz, M.; Gu, J.; Kusch, T.; Flentje, H.; Quass, U.; Kaminski, H.; Kuhlbusch, T. A. J.; Meinhardt, F.; Schwerin, A.; Bath, O.; Ries, L.; Wirtz, K.; Fiebig, M.

2015-11-01

The German Ultrafine Aerosol Network (GUAN) is a cooperative atmospheric observation network, which aims at improving the scientific understanding of aerosol-related effects in the troposphere. The network addresses research questions dedicated to both, climate and health related effects. GUAN's core activity has been the continuous collection of tropospheric particle number size distributions and black carbon mass concentrations at seventeen observation sites in Germany. These sites cover various environmental settings including urban traffic, urban background, rural background, and Alpine mountains. In association with partner projects, GUAN has implemented a high degree of harmonisation of instrumentation, operating procedures, and data evaluation procedures. The quality of the measurement data is assured by laboratory intercomparisons as well as on-site comparisons with reference instruments. This paper describes the measurement sites, instrumentation, quality assurance and data evaluation procedures in the network as well as the EBAS repository, where the data sets can be obtained (doi:10.5072/guan).

Long-term observations of tropospheric particle number size distributions and equivalent black carbon mass concentrations in the German Ultrafine Aerosol Network (GUAN)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Birmili, Wolfram; Weinhold, Kay; Rasch, Fabian; Sonntag, André; Sun, Jia; Merkel, Maik; Wiedensohler, Alfred; Bastian, Susanne; Schladitz, Alexander; Löschau, Gunter; Cyrys, Josef; Pitz, Mike; Gu, Jianwei; Kusch, Thomas; Flentje, Harald; Quass, Ulrich; Kaminski, Heinz; Kuhlbusch, Thomas A. J.; Meinhardt, Frank; Schwerin, Andreas; Bath, Olaf; Ries, Ludwig; Gerwig, Holger; Wirtz, Klaus; Fiebig, Markus

2016-08-01

The German Ultrafine Aerosol Network (GUAN) is a cooperative atmospheric observation network, which aims at improving the scientific understanding of aerosol-related effects in the troposphere. The network addresses research questions dedicated to both climate- and health-related effects. GUAN's core activity has been the continuous collection of tropospheric particle number size distributions and black carbon mass concentrations at 17 observation sites in Germany. These sites cover various environmental settings including urban traffic, urban background, rural background, and Alpine mountains. In association with partner projects, GUAN has implemented a high degree of harmonisation of instrumentation, operating procedures, and data evaluation procedures. The quality of the measurement data is assured by laboratory intercomparisons as well as on-site comparisons with reference instruments. This paper describes the measurement sites, instrumentation, quality assurance, and data evaluation procedures in the network as well as the EBAS repository, where the data sets can be obtained (doi:10.5072/guan).

Climate change and skin disease.

PubMed

Lundgren, Ashley D

2018-04-01

Despite commanding essentially universal scientific consensus, climate change remains a divisive and poorly understood topic in the United States. Familiarity with this subject is not just for climate scientists. The impact of climate change on human morbidity and mortality may be considerable; thus, physicians also should be knowledgeable in this realm. Climate change science can seem opaque and inferential, creating fertile ground for political polemics and undoubtedly contributing to confusion among the general public. This puts physicians in a pivotal position to facilitate a practical understanding of climate change in the public sphere by discussing changes in disease patterns and their possible relationship to a changing climate. This article provides a background on climate change for dermatologists and highlights how climate change may impact the management of skin disease across the United States.

Mandate for the Nursing Profession to Address Climate Change Through Nursing Education.

PubMed

Leffers, Jeanne; Levy, Ruth McDermott; Nicholas, Patrice K; Sweeney, Casey F

2017-11-01

The adverse health effects from climate change demand action from the nursing profession. This article examines the calls to action, the status of climate change in nursing education, and challenges and recommendations for nursing education related to climate change and human health. Discussion paper. The integration of climate change into nursing education is essential so that knowledge, skills, and insights critical for clinical practice in our climate-changing world are incorporated in curricula, practice, research, and policy. Our Ecological Planetary Health Model offers a framework for nursing to integrate relevant climate change education into nursing curricula and professional nursing education. Nursing education can offer a leadership role to address the mitigation, adaptation, and resilience strategies for climate change. An ecological framework is valuable for nursing education regarding climate change through its consideration of political, cultural, economic, and environmental interrelationships on human health and the health of the planet. Knowledge of climate change is important for integration into basic and advanced nursing education, as well as professional education for nurses to address adverse health impacts, climate change responses policy, and advocacy roles. For current and future nurses to provide care within a climate-changing environment, nursing education has a mandate to integrate knowledge about climate change issues across all levels of nursing education. Competence in nursing practice follows from knowledge and skill acquisition gained from integration of climate change content into nursing education. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Mainstreaming Climate Change Into Geosciences Curriculum of Tertiary Educational Systems in Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyarko, B. K.

2015-12-01

The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana and also juxtapose with the WASCAL graduate school curriculum. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognize that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to make Climate Change education practical.

A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; M{ü}ller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

2012-11-01

In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a~narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships betweenΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

Climate change velocity underestimates climate change exposure in mountainous regions

PubMed Central

Dobrowski, Solomon Z.; Parks, Sean A.

2016-01-01

Climate change velocity is a vector depiction of the rate of climate displacement used for assessing climate change impacts. Interpreting velocity requires an assumption that climate trajectory length is proportional to climate change exposure; longer paths suggest greater exposure. However, distance is an imperfect measure of exposure because it does not quantify the extent to which trajectories traverse areas of dissimilar climate. Here we calculate velocity and minimum cumulative exposure (MCE) in degrees Celsius along climate trajectories for North America. We find that velocity is weakly related to MCE; each metric identifies contrasting areas of vulnerability to climate change. Notably, velocity underestimates exposure in mountainous regions where climate trajectories traverse dissimilar climates, resulting in high MCE. In contrast, in flat regions velocity is high where MCE is low, as these areas have negligible climatic resistance to movement. Our results suggest that mountainous regions are more climatically isolated than previously reported. PMID:27476545

The MIT Integrated Global System Model: A facility for Assessing and Communicating Climate Change Uncertainty (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prinn, R. G.

2013-12-01

The world is facing major challenges that create tensions between human development and environmental sustenance. In facing these challenges, computer models are invaluable tools for addressing the need for probabilistic approaches to forecasting. To illustrate this, I use the MIT Integrated Global System Model framework (IGSM; http://globalchange.mit.edu ). The IGSM consists of a set of coupled sub-models of global economic and technological development and resultant emissions, and physical, dynamical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, land, ocean and ecosystems (natural and managed). Some of the sub-models have both complex and simplified versions available, with the choice of which version to use being guided by the questions being addressed. Some sub-models (e.g.urban air pollution) are reduced forms of complex ones created by probabilistic collocation with polynomial chaos bases. Given the significant uncertainties in the model components, it is highly desirable that forecasts be probabilistic. We achieve this by running 400-member ensembles (Latin hypercube sampling) with different choices for key uncertain variables and processes within the human and natural system model components (pdfs of inputs estimated by model-observation comparisons, literature surveys, or expert elicitation). The IGSM has recently been used for probabilistic forecasts of climate, each using 400-member ensembles: one ensemble assumes no explicit climate mitigation policy and others assume increasingly stringent policies involving stabilization of greenhouse gases at various levels. These forecasts indicate clearly that the greatest effect of these policies is to lower the probability of extreme changes. The value of such probability analyses for policy decision-making lies in their ability to compare relative (not just absolute) risks of various policies, which are less affected by the earth system model uncertainties. Given the uncertainties in forecasts, it is also clear that we need to evaluate policies based on their ability to lower risk, and to re-evaluate decisions over time as new knowledge is gained. Reference: R. G. Prinn, Development and Application of Earth System Models, Proceedings, National Academy of Science, June 15, 2012, http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1107470109.

Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dewart, Jean Marie

Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual modelmore » of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).« less

Survey data on cost and benefits of climate smart agricultural technologies in western Kenya.

PubMed

Ng'ang'a, S K; Mwungu, C M; Mwongera, C; Kinyua, I; Notenbaert, A; Girvetz, E

2018-02-01

This paper describes data that were collected in three counties of western Kenya, namely Siaya, Bungoma, and Kakamega. The main aim of collecting the data was to assess the climate smartness, profitability and returns of soil protection and rehabilitation measures. The data were collected from 88 households. The households were selected using simple random sampling technique from a primary sampling frame of 180 farm households provided by the ministry of agriculture through the counties agricultural officers. The surveys were administered by trained research assistants using a structured questionnaire that was designed in Census and Survey Processing System (CSPro). Later, the data was exported to STATA version 14.1 for cleaning and management purposes. The data are hosted in an open source dataverse to allow other researchers generate new insights from the data (http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/DVN/K6JQXC).

Inter-calibration and validation of observations from SAPHIR and ATMS instruments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradi, I.; Ferraro, R. R.

2015-12-01

We present the results of evaluating observations from microwave instruments aboard the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP, ATMS instrument) and Megha-Tropiques (SAPHIR instrument) satellites. The study includes inter-comparison and inter-calibration of observations of similar channels from the two instruments, evaluation of the satellite data using high-quality radiosonde data from Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program and GPS Radio Occultaion Observations from COSMIC mission, as well as geolocation error correction. The results of this study are valuable for generating climate data records from these instruments as well as for extending current climate data records from similar instruments such as AMSU-B and MHS to the ATMS and SAPHIR instruments. Reference: Moradi et al., Intercalibration and Validation of Observations From ATMS and SAPHIR Microwave Sounders. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing. 01/2015; DOI: 10.1109/TGRS.2015.2427165

Rural perspectives of climate change: a study from Saurastra and Kutch of Western India.

PubMed

Moghariya, Dineshkumar P; Smardon, Richard C

2014-08-01

This research reports on rural people's beliefs and understandings of climate change in the Saurastra/ Kutch region of Western India. Results suggest that although most rural respondents have not heard about the scientific concept of climate change, they have detected changes in the climate. They appear to hold divergent understandings about climate change and have different priorities for causes and solutions. Many respondents appear to base their understandings of climate change upon a mix of ideas drawn from various sources and rely on different kinds of reasoning in relation to both causes of and solutions to climate change to those used by scientists. Environmental conditions were found to influence individuals' understanding of climate change, while demographic factors were not. The results suggest a need to learn more about people's conceptual models and understandings of climate change and a need to include local climate research in communication efforts.

Our Changing Climate: A Brand New Way to Study Climate Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Kauffman, C.; Geer, I.; Nugnes, K. A.; Mills, E. W.

2014-12-01

Earth's climate is inherently variable, but is currently changing at rates unprecedented in recent Earth history. Human activity plays a major role in this change and is projected to do so well into the future. This is the stance taken in Our Changing Climate, the brand new climate science ebook from the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Our Changing Climate investigates Earth's climate system, explores humans' impact on it, and identifies actions needed in response to climate change. Released in August 2014, Our Changing Climate is the result of a year's worth of intensive research and writing, incorporating the latest scientific understandings of Earth's climate system from reports such as IPCC AR5 and the Third National Climate Assessment. To encourage additional exploration of climate science information, scientific literature, from which chapter content was derived, is cited at the conclusion of each chapter. In addition, Topic In Depth sections appear throughout each chapter and lead to more extensive information related to various topics. For example, a Topic In Depth in Chapter 11 describes the effect of climate extremes on ranching enterprises in Nebraska. Climate science is multi-disciplinary and therefore Our Changing Climate covers a breadth of topics. From understanding basic statistics and geospatial tools used to investigate Earth's climate system to examining the psychological and financial reasons behind climate change denial, the AMS believes that a multi-disciplinary approach is the most effective way to increase climate literacy. Our Changing Climate is part of the AMS Climate Studies course which is intended for undergraduate-level students. Other course materials include an eInvestigations Manual and access to the RealTime Climate Portal, both of which provide weekly activities corresponding to that week's chapter content. The RealTime Climate Portal also has links to climate data as well as societal interactions and climate policy websites to spur further interest. Faculty support materials are also provided. AMS Climate Studies has been licensed by 130 institutions since Fall 2010. Our Changing Climate reveals the impact that each of us has on the climate. With this understanding come choices and actions for a more sustainable future.

Climate variability and wine quality over Portuguese regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gouveia, Célia M.; Gani, Érico A.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2015-04-01

The relationship between the characteristics of wine and its geographic origin is frequently used to explain the hierarchy of high-quality wines. Port wine is produced from grapes grown in selected areas of the Douro valley, in Portugal, the so-called Região Demarcada do Douro, the first wine-producing region of the world (dating from 1758). The Douro region presents distinctive climatic, topographic and soil characteristics. Moreover Portugal possesses a large array of native varietals, producing an abundant diversity of different wines. The most protected wines, produced only with some authorised grape varietals in the demarcated regions, are labelled D.O.C. (Denominação de Origem Controlada, similar to the French Appellation d'Origine Contrôlée (AOC)) which secures a superior wine quality. Recent warming trends in Portugal are associated with the significant increase in the frequency and duration of heat waves, and the increase in the frequency of hot days and tropical nights, especially in spring and summer, together with a significant decrease in the frequency of cold waves and frost days (Santo et al., 2014). Moreover a predominantly negative tendency in precipitation indices was also found (de Lima et al., 2014). These trends and associated changes in temperature and precipitation regimes may exert strong influences on agriculture systems. In this work we have performed an analysis of the distinct behaviour of several meteorological fields in vintage versus non-vintage years for Port Wine on one hand and Alentejo and Dão/Bairrada DOC regions on the other hand, during the period spanning from 1964-1995. The relative importance of maximum and minimum temperature, precipitation and frost days is assessed for each individual month of the vegetative cycle and their importance to the wine quality is evaluated. Furthermore, composites of 500 hPa geopotential height and sea level pressure fields over the Euro Atlantic region are also compared for years characterized in each region by high/low quality wines. Finally, we also investigated how climate variability is related to DOC wine quality for different regions using North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Results reveal a strong dependence of wine quality for all regions on maximum temperature and precipitation during spring and summer (the growing season) as expected. However the role of temperature on wine quality seems to be distinct among the diverse regions probably due to their different climate zoning. Moreover, it is shown that the differences associated with high/low quality wine are in agreement with different synoptic fields patterns. Our results suggest that this type of analysis may be used in developing a tool that may help anticipating a vintage/high quality year, based on already available seasonal climate outlooks. Santo F.E., de Lima M.I.P., Ramos A.M., Trigo R.M., Trends in seasonal surface air temperature in mainland Portugal, since 1941, International Journal Climatolology, 34: 1814-1837, doi: 10.1002/joc.3803 (2014) de Lima M.I.P., Santo F.E., Ramos A.M. , Trigo, R.M., Trends and correlations in annual extreme precipitation indices for mainland Portugal, 1941-2007, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI:10.1007/s00704-013-1079-6 (2014) Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project QSECA (PTDC/AAGGLO/4155/2012).

A plant’s perspective of extremes: Terrestrial plant responses to changing climatic variability

PubMed Central

Reyer, C.; Leuzinger, S.; Rammig, A.; Wolf, A.; Bartholomeus, R. P.; Bonfante, A.; de Lorenzi, F.; Dury, M.; Gloning, P.; Abou Jaoudé, R.; Klein, T.; Kuster, T. M.; Martins, M.; Niedrist, G.; Riccardi, M.; Wohlfahrt, G.; de Angelis, P.; de Dato, G.; François, L.; Menzel, A.; Pereira, M.

2013-01-01

We review observational, experimental and model results on how plants respond to extreme climatic conditions induced by changing climatic variability. Distinguishing between impacts of changing mean climatic conditions and changing climatic variability on terrestrial ecosystems is generally underrated in current studies. The goals of our review are thus (1) to identify plant processes that are vulnerable to changes in the variability of climatic variables rather than to changes in their mean, and (2) to depict/evaluate available study designs to quantify responses of plants to changing climatic variability. We find that phenology is largely affected by changing mean climate but also that impacts of climatic variability are much less studied but potentially damaging. We note that plant water relations seem to be very vulnerable to extremes driven by changes in temperature and precipitation and that heatwaves and flooding have stronger impacts on physiological processes than changing mean climate. Moreover, interacting phenological and physiological processes are likely to further complicate plant responses to changing climatic variability. Phenological and physiological processes and their interactions culminate in even more sophisticated responses to changing mean climate and climatic variability at the species and community level. Generally, observational studies are well suited to study plant responses to changing mean climate, but less suitable to gain a mechanistic understanding of plant responses to climatic variability. Experiments seem best suited to simulate extreme events. In models, temporal resolution and model structure are crucial to capture plant responses to changing climatic variability. We highlight that a combination of experimental, observational and /or modeling studies have the potential to overcome important caveats of the respective individual approaches. PMID:23504722

Undergraduate Students' Conceptions of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenbath, K. L.

2011-12-01

Scientists and educators strive to improve climate literacy throughout society, whether through communication of research findings or though classroom teaching. Despite these efforts, climate change misconceptions exist in students and the general public. When educators present evidence that contradicts misconceptions, students may begin to struggle with their inaccurate ideas and perhaps transition towards a scientifically-accepted understanding. These transitions, called conceptual change, can occur in college climate change courses. The purpose of this presentation is to describe college students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change and the way these ideas change throughout a climate change course. This presentation is based on five case studies of undergraduate students in a large lecture-hall course dedicated to climate change. Each case study student represents a different level of climate change understanding at the beginning of the semester. These case studies and subsequent cross-case analyses result from a qualitative research study using interviews, field notes, artifact analysis, coding and categorization, and research memos. The cases show shifts in all five students' ideas of natural and anthropogenic climate change. During the first month of class, the three lower achieving students expressed uncertainty about the increase in average global temperatures due to anthropogenic climate change. At the end of the semester, these students explained that warming from climate change is natural, yet the rate of this warming is increasing due to human activities. Two of the lower achieving students constructed definitions of climate change different than the definition used by the professor in the classroom. These students solidified the idea that the term "climate change" describes the change that results from natural forcings only, while the term "global warming" describes change in the climate that results from human-caused forcings. Their constructed definition removes human-causes from association with the word "climate change", which may influence their climate change understanding. Of the two higher achieving students, one emphasized anthropogenic climate change at the beginning of the semester, but later focused on natural climate change during his interviews. The other high achieving student included tangential environmental topics in her descriptions of climate change throughout the entire semester, thus conflating climate change's definition. These alternative definitions of climate change indicate that the learners constructed hybrid conceptions in order to incorporate class content with their prior ideas. These hybrid conceptions indicate that the students' understandings lie somewhere between misconceptions and conceptual change. Since the students demonstrated these hybrid conceptions at the end of class, perhaps more time is needed for the students to process the information. These case studies identify the gaps the professor should address for conceptual change to fully occur.

An Interface between Law and Science: The Climate Change Regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Grandbois, M.; Kaniaha, S.

2012-04-01

Law and Science are jointly building the international climate change regime. Up to date, international law and climate science have been unable to take into consideration both regional law and Pacific climate science in this process. Under the International Climate Change Adaptation Initiative (the Australian Government Initiative to assist with high priority climate adaptation needs in vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific region) significant efforts were dedicated to improve understanding of climate in the Pacific through the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) and through the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program (PASAP). The first comprehensive PCCSP scientific report on the South Pacific climate has been published in 2011. Under the PASAP, web-based information tools for seasonal climate prediction have been developed and now outputs from dynamical climate model are used in 15 countries of the North-West and South Pacific for enhanced prediction of rainfall, air and sea surface temperatures which reduces countries' vulnerability to climate variability in the context of a changing climate. On a regional scale, the Meteorological and Geohazards Department of Vanuatu is preparing a full report on Climate change impacts on the country. These scientific reports and tools could lead to a better understanding of climate change in the South Pacific and to a better understanding of climate change science, for lawyers and policy-makers. The International climate change regime develops itself according to science findings, and at the pace of the four scientific reports issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In return, Law is a contributing factor to climate change, a structural data in the development and perception of environmental issues and it exerts an influence on Science. Because of the dependency of law on science, the PCCSP and PASAP outcomes will also stimulate and orientate developments in law of the Pacific Island countries, as well as it could increase countries' contributions to the future of international environmental law. Vanuatu is pioneering this process in the Pacific and could make a leading contribution to the development of Nationally appropriate mitigation actions by developing country Parties, according to the Bali action Plan and to participate actively in the negotiations of a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol. In studying and transposing the national climate change report, Vanuatu would also sensibly improve its own environmental laws in response to climate change. By building a bridge between law and science in the Pacific, we are training scientists to climate change law, and training lawyers and policy-makers to climate change science; increasing the collaborative process and the cooperation between scientists and lawyers, in drafting national environmental laws and in negotiating international climate change agreements; and enhancing the contribution of small vulnerable islands to the development of the international climate change regime, as it regards to law and to science. Training for climate scientists and for lawyers and policy-makers on climate change science and law will be provided through the USP Course on climate change international law and climate change science - the first course on this type in the Pacific.

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

2014-11-04

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change

PubMed Central

Dickinson, Maria G.; Orme, C. David L.; Suttle, K. Blake; Mace, Georgina M.

2014-01-01

Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk. PMID:25367429

DYT1 dystonia increases risk taking in humans

PubMed Central

Arkadir, David; Radulescu, Angela; Raymond, Deborah; Lubarr, Naomi; Bressman, Susan B; Mazzoni, Pietro; Niv, Yael

2016-01-01

It has been difficult to link synaptic modification to overt behavioral changes. Rodent models of DYT1 dystonia, a motor disorder caused by a single gene mutation, demonstrate increased long-term potentiation and decreased long-term depression in corticostriatal synapses. Computationally, such asymmetric learning predicts risk taking in probabilistic tasks. Here we demonstrate abnormal risk taking in DYT1 dystonia patients, which is correlated with disease severity, thereby supporting striatal plasticity in shaping choice behavior in humans. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.14155.001 PMID:27249418

When climate science became climate politics: British media representations of climate change in 1988.

PubMed

Jaspal, Rusi; Nerlich, Brigitte

2014-02-01

Climate change has become a pressing environmental concern for scientists, social commentators and politicians. Previous social science research has explored media representations of climate change in various temporal and geographical contexts. Through the lens of Social Representations Theory, this article provides a detailed qualitative thematic analysis of media representations of climate change in the 1988 British broadsheet press, given that this year constitutes an important juncture in this transition of climate change from the domain of science to that of the socio-political sphere. The following themes are outlined: (i) "Climate change: a multi-faceted threat"; (ii) "Collectivisation of threat"; (iii) "Climate change and the attribution of blame"; and (iv) "Speculative solutions to a complex socio-environmental problem." The article provides detailed empirical insights into the "starting-point" for present-day disputes concerning climate change and lays the theoretical foundations for tracking the continuities and discontinuities characterising social representations of climate change in the future.

Some guidelines for helping natural resources adapt to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.; Joyce, Linda A.; Blate, Geoffrey; Peterson, Charles H.; Palmer, Margaret; Keller, Brian D.; Kareiva, Peter; Scott, J. Michael; Griffith, Brad

2008-01-01

The changes occurring in mountain regions are an epitome of climate change. The dramatic shrinkage of major glaciers over the past century – and especially in the last 30 years – is one of several iconic images that have come to symbolize climate change. Climate creates the context for ecosystems, and climate variables strongly influence the structure, composition, and processes that characterize distinct ecosystems. Climate change, therefore, is having direct and indirect effects on species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue regardless of emissions mitigation, management strategies to enhance the resilience of ecosystems will become increasingly important. It is essential that management responses to climate change proceed using the best available science despite uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate effects, and the effects of management. Given these uncertainties, management adaptation will require flexibility to reflect our growing understanding of climate change impacts and management effectiveness.

Effects of Climate Change, Urban Development, and Threatened and Endangered Species Management on Army Training Capabilities: Firing Ranges

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

Climate Assessment for Army Enterprise Planning Effects of Climate Change , Urban Development, and... Climate Assessment for Army Enterprise Planning ERDC/CERL TR-16-29 January 2016 Effects of Climate Change , Urban Development, and Threatened and...due to climate change factors. The effects of climate change on DoD in- stallations is increasing in significance and has the potential to impact

Patterns and biases in climate change research on amphibians and reptiles: a systematic review.

PubMed

Winter, Maiken; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Hochachka, Wesley M; Koehncke, Arnulf; Meiri, Shai; De la Riva, Ignacio

2016-09-01

Climate change probably has severe impacts on animal populations, but demonstrating a causal link can be difficult because of potential influences by additional factors. Assessing global impacts of climate change effects may also be hampered by narrow taxonomic and geographical research foci. We review studies on the effects of climate change on populations of amphibians and reptiles to assess climate change effects and potential biases associated with the body of work that has been conducted within the last decade. We use data from 104 studies regarding the effect of climate on 313 species, from 464 species-study combinations. Climate change effects were reported in 65% of studies. Climate change was identified as causing population declines or range restrictions in half of the cases. The probability of identifying an effect of climate change varied among regions, taxa and research methods. Climatic effects were equally prevalent in studies exclusively investigating climate factors (more than 50% of studies) and in studies including additional factors, thus bolstering confidence in the results of studies exclusively examining effects of climate change. Our analyses reveal biases with respect to geography, taxonomy and research question, making global conclusions impossible. Additional research should focus on under-represented regions, taxa and questions. Conservation and climate policy should consider the documented harm climate change causes reptiles and amphibians.