A walk on the tundra: Host-parasite interactions in an extreme environment.

PubMed

Kutz, Susan J; Hoberg, Eric P; Molnár, Péter K; Dobson, Andy; Verocai, Guilherme G

2014-08-01

Climate change is occurring very rapidly in the Arctic, and the processes that have taken millions of years to evolve in this very extreme environment are now changing on timescales as short as decades. These changes are dramatic, subtle and non-linear. In this article, we discuss the evolving insights into host-parasite interactions for wild ungulate species, specifically, muskoxen and caribou, in the North American Arctic. These interactions occur in an environment that is characterized by extremes in temperature, high seasonality, and low host species abundance and diversity. We believe that lessons learned in this system can guide wildlife management and conservation throughout the Arctic, and can also be generalized to more broadly understand host-parasite interactions elsewhere. We specifically examine the impacts of climate change on host-parasite interactions and focus on: (I) the direct temperature effects on parasites; (II) the importance of considering the intricacies of host and parasite ecology for anticipating climate change impacts; and (III) the effect of shifting ecological barriers and corridors. Insights gained from studying the history and ecology of host-parasite systems in the Arctic will be central to understanding the role that climate change is playing in these more complex systems.

A walk on the tundra: Host–parasite interactions in an extreme environment

PubMed Central

Kutz, Susan J.; Hoberg, Eric P.; Molnár, Péter K.; Dobson, Andy; Verocai, Guilherme G.

2014-01-01

Climate change is occurring very rapidly in the Arctic, and the processes that have taken millions of years to evolve in this very extreme environment are now changing on timescales as short as decades. These changes are dramatic, subtle and non-linear. In this article, we discuss the evolving insights into host–parasite interactions for wild ungulate species, specifically, muskoxen and caribou, in the North American Arctic. These interactions occur in an environment that is characterized by extremes in temperature, high seasonality, and low host species abundance and diversity. We believe that lessons learned in this system can guide wildlife management and conservation throughout the Arctic, and can also be generalized to more broadly understand host–parasite interactions elsewhere. We specifically examine the impacts of climate change on host–parasite interactions and focus on: (I) the direct temperature effects on parasites; (II) the importance of considering the intricacies of host and parasite ecology for anticipating climate change impacts; and (III) the effect of shifting ecological barriers and corridors. Insights gained from studying the history and ecology of host–parasite systems in the Arctic will be central to understanding the role that climate change is playing in these more complex systems. PMID:25180164

Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa Under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Habib, S.; Funk, C. C.; Senay, G. B.; Dinku, T.; Policelli, F. S.; Block, P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Beyene, S.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.

2014-12-01

The development of effective strategies to adapt to changes in the character of droughts and floods in Africa will rely on improved seasonal prediction systems that are robust to an evolving climate baseline and can be integrated into disaster preparedness and response. Many efforts have been made to build models to improve seasonal forecasts in the Greater Horn of Africa region (GHA) using satellite and climate data, but these efforts and models must be improved and translated into future conditions under evolving climate conditions. This has considerable social significance, but is challenged by the nature of climate predictability and the adaptability of coupled natural and human systems facing exposure to climate extremes. To address these issues, work is in progress under a project funded by NASA. The objectives of the project include: 1) Characterize and explain large-scale drivers in the ocean-atmosphere-land system associated with years of extreme flood or drought in the GHA. 2) Evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes. 3) Apply seasonal forecast systems to prediction of socially relevant impacts on crops, flood risk, and economic outcomes, and assess the value of these predictions to decision makers. 4) Evaluate the robustness of seasonal prediction systems to evolving climate conditions. The National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA) is leading this project in collaboration with the USGS, Johns Hopkins University, University of Wisconsin-Madison, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, NASA, and GHA local experts. The project is also designed to have active engagement of end users in various sectors, university researchers, and extension agents in GHA through workshops and/or webinars. This project is expected improve and implement new and existing climate- and remote sensing-based agricultural, meteorological, and hydrologic drought and flood monitoring products (or indicators) that can enhance the preparedness for extreme climate events and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the GHA. Even though this project is in its first year, the preliminary results and future plans to carry out the objectives will be presented.

The Co-evolution of Climate Models and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somerville, R. C.

2010-12-01

As recently as the 1950s, global climate models, or GCMs, did not exist, and the notion that man-made carbon dioxide might lead to significant climate change was not regarded as a serious possibility by most experts. Today, of course, the prospect or threat of exactly this type of climate change dominates the science and ranks among the most pressing issues confronting all mankind. Indeed, the prevailing scientific view throughout the first half of the twentieth century was that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would have only a negligible effect on climate. The science of climate change caused by atmospheric carbon dioxide changes has thus undergone a genuine revolution. An extraordinarily rapid development of global climate models has also characterized this period, especially in the three decades since about 1980. In these three decades, the number of GCMs has greatly increased, and their physical and computational aspects have both markedly improved. Modeling progress has been enabled by many scientific advances, of course, but especially by a massive increase in available computer power, with supercomputer speeds increasing by roughly a factor of a million in the three decades from about 1980 to 2010. This technological advance has permitted a rapid increase in the physical comprehensiveness of GCMs as well as in spatial computational resolution. In short, GCMs have dramatically evolved over time, in exactly the same recent period as popular interest and scientific concern about anthropogenic climate change have markedly increased. In parallel, a unique international organization, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, has also recently come into being and also evolved rapidly. Today, the IPCC has become widely respected and globally influential. The IPCC was founded in 1988, and its history is thus even shorter than that of GCMs. Yet, its stature today is such that a series of IPCC reports assessing climate change science has already been endorsed by many leading scientific professional societies and academies of science worldwide. These reports are considered as definitive summaries of the state of the science. In 2007, in recognition of its exceptional accomplishments, the IPCC shared the Nobel Peace Prize equally with Al Gore. The present era is characterized not only by the reality and seriousness of human-caused climate change, but also by a young yet powerful science that enables us to understand much about the climate change that has occurred already and that awaits in the future. The development of GCMs is a critical part of the scientific story, and the development of the IPCC is a key factor in connecting the science to the perceptions and priorities of the global public and policymakers. GCMs and the IPCC have co-evolved and strongly influenced one another, as both scientists and the world at large have worked to confront the challenge of climate change.

Leveraging Research Partnerships to Co-Produce Actionable Science and Build Institutional Capacity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, P.; Chinn, A.; Rufo Hill, J.; Edgerly, J.; Garcia, E.

2017-12-01

Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) provides high quality drinking water to 1.4 million people in the greater Seattle area and storm, wastewater and solid waste services to the City of Seattle. SPU's engagement on climate change has evolved significantly over the past 20 years. What began in 1997 as an inquiry into how El Nino may affect water supply has evolved into a broad based ongoing exploration that includes extensive in-house knowledge, capacity and expertise. This presentation will describe SPU's evolution from a funder and consumer of climate research to an active contributor to the development of applied research products, highlighted SPU's changing role in three climate impacts assessment studies. It will describe how SPU has leveraged these studies and partnerships to enhance its knowledge base, build its internal institutional capacity and produce actionable science that it is helping to foster incorporation of climate change into various aspects of utility planning and decision making. It will describe the PUMA Project and how the results from that research effort are being factored into SPU's state mandated Water System Plan.

Interdisciplinary research in climate and energy sciences

DOE PAGES

Xu, Xiaofeng; Goswami, Santonu; Gulledge, Jay; ...

2015-09-12

Due to the complex nature of climate change, interdisciplinary research approaches involving knowledge and skills from a broad range of disciplines have been adopted for studying changes in the climate system as well as strategies for mitigating climate change (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions reductions) and adapting to its impacts on society and natural systems. Harnessing of renewable energy sources to replace fossil fuels is widely regarded as a long-term mitigation strategy that requires the synthesis of knowledge from engineering, technology, and natural and social sciences. In this study, we examine how the adoption of interdisciplinary approaches has evolved over timemore » and in different geographic regions. We conducted a comprehensive literature survey using an evaluation matrix of keywords, in combination with a word cloud analysis, to evaluate the spatiotemporal dynamics of scholarly discourse about interdisciplinary approaches to climate change and renewable energy research and development (R&D). Publications that discuss interdisciplinary approaches to climate change and renewable energy have substantially increased over the last 60 years; it appears, however, that the nature, timing, and focus of these publications vary across countries and through time. Over the most recent three decades, the country-level contribution to interdisciplinary research for climate change has become more evenly distributed, but this was not true for renewable energy research, which remained dominated by the United Sates and a few other major economies. The research topics have also evolved: Water resource management was emphasized from 1990s to 2000s, policy and adaptation were emphasized from the 2000s to 2010 – 2013, while vulnerability became prominent during the most recent years (2010 – 2013). Lastly, our analysis indicates that the rate of growth of interdisciplinary research for renewable energy lags behind that for climate change, possibly because knowledge emanating from climate change science has motivated the subsequent upswing in renewable energy R&D.« less

Evolved Phenological Asynchrony as a Baseline for Climate-change Impacts. (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singer, M. C.; Parmesan, C.

2010-12-01

Changing climate can disrupt existing phenological relations between interacting species. We might expect the historical baseline for these effects to be precise synchrony between the season at which a consumer most requires food and the time when its resources are most available. When this is the case, change in any direction would be detrimental to the consumer. But is baseline synchrony the appropriate assumption? Here, we develop the theme that the starting point for climate change impacts may often have been asynchrony or mismatch between consumer and resource. To the extent that this has been true, assumptions of baseline synchrony risk mis-detection, mis-estimation, and mis-attribution of climate change impacts. Natural selection can result in asynchrony between exploiter and victim when victims successfully evolve to occupy enemy-free time. Asynchrony can also result from life-history tradedoffs. We illustrate asynchrony arising from tradeoffs for two species: Edith’s checkerspot butterfly and the winter moth. Initial observations of phenological mismatch in both systems were made prior to the onset of major impacts of anthropogenically-driven climate change. Neither species can detect the phenological stage of its host plants with precision. In both species, evolution of life history has involved compromise between maximizing fecundity and minimizing mortality, with the outcome being superficially maladaptive strategies in which many or even most individuals die of starvation through poor synchrony with their host plants. Both species have evolved high-risk life history strategies. While winter moth eggs gamble with their own lives by hatching early, bay checkerspots gamble with the lives of their offspring by growing large and eclosing late as adults. In both cases the result is the evolution of populations in which large numbers of individuals die because, as individuals, they fail to fit their life cycles into the available timespan. Because such a population exists near the limits of its ecological tolerance, it is particularly vulnerable to impacts of climate change. This vulnerability probably contributed to the skewed geographical pattern of population extinctions in the butterfly, which drove a northward and upward range shift in this species in the late 20th century.

An Evolving Assessment Strategy: Sustaining Interactions with Users to Inform Planning and Decisionmaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moss, R. H.

2016-12-01

Research indicates that in addition to reports, decision makers need to access climate science through a range of products such as scenarios, observed data, maps, technical guidelines, and other materials. This presentation will describe an evolving strategy for leveraging climate research and assessments conducted by the US Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) to provide usable climate information to build society's capacity to manage climate variability and change. The approach is called "sustained assessment" and is intended to be more interactive and to empower individuals and organizations to participate more fully and in an ongoing basis to evaluate the implications of climate change using state of the art scientific information. The speaker will describe the necessary conditions for sustained assessment, including mechanisms to facilitate ongoing communication between users and the climate science community in co-design and implementation of assessment activities. It will also review some of the needed scientific foundations for sustained assessment. The speaker is chair of the recently established Federal Advisory Committee. He has been involved in previous US National Climate Assessments (NCAs), including as a lead author of a special advisory report on establishing a sustained US national assessment process. He will speak in his personal capacity and provide publicly-available information on the role of the new Advisory Committee and steps towards establishing a sustained assessment process.

Impacts of climate and land use change on reservoir sedimentation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Impacts of evolving climate and implementation of upstream soil conservation measures on sedimentation of the Fort Cobb Reservoir in West-Central Oklahoma are investigated. Conservation practices before the 1950s were few. Between 1950 and 2008, extensive soil conservation measures were implemented...

Comparison Of In Situ Soil Moisture Measurements: An Examination of the Neutron and Dielectric Measurements within the Illinois Climate Network

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The continuity of soil moisture time series data is crucial for climatic research. Yet, a common problem for continuous data series is the changing of sensors, not only as replacements are necessary, but as technologies evolve. The Illinois Climate Network has one of the longest data records of soi...

Climate change and avian influenza

PubMed Central

Slingenbergh, J.; Xiao, X.

2009-01-01

Summary This paper discusses impacts of climate change on the ecology of avian influenza viruses (AI viruses), which presumably co-evolved with migratory water birds, with virus also persisting outside the host in subarctic water bodies. Climate change would almost certainly alter bird migration, influence the AI virus transmission cycle and directly affect virus survival outside the host. The joint, net effects of these changes are rather unpredictable, but it is likely that AI virus circulation in water bird populations will continue with endless adaptation and evolution. In domestic poultry, too little is known about the direct effect of environmental factors on highly pathogenic avian influenza transmission and persistence to allow inference about the possible effect of climate change. However, possible indirect links through changes in the distribution of duck-crop farming are discussed. PMID:18819672

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Baker, Arnold Barry; Backus, George A.; Romig, Alton Dale, Jr.

Climate change is a long-term process that will trigger a range of multi-dimensional demographic, economic, geopolitical, and national security issues with many unknowns and significant uncertainties. At first glance, climate-change-related national security dimensions seem far removed from today's major national security threats. Yet climate change has already set in motion forces that will require U.S. attention and preparedness. The extent and uncertainty associated with these situations necessitate a move away from conventional security practices, toward a small but flexible portfolio of assets to maintain U.S. interests. Thoughtful action is required now if we are to acquire the capabilities, tools, systems,more » and institutions needed to meet U.S. national security requirements as they evolve with the emerging stresses and shifts of climate change.« less

The Influence of Emission Location on the Magnitude and Spatial Distribution of Aerosols' Climate Effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Persad, G.; Caldeira, K.

2017-12-01

The global distribution of anthropogenic aerosol emissions has evolved continuously since the preindustrial era - from 20th century North American and Western European emissions hotspots to present-day South and East Asian ones. With this comes a relocation of the regional radiative, dynamical, and hydrological impacts of aerosol emissions, which may influence global climate differently depending on where they occur. A lack of understanding of this relationship between aerosol emissions' location and their global climate effects, however, obscures the potential influence that aerosols' evolving geographic distribution may have on global and regional climate change—a gap which we address in this work. Using a novel suite of experiments in the CESM CAM5 atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean, we systematically test and analyze mechanisms behind the relative climate impact of identical black carbon and sulfate aerosol emissions located in each of 8 past, present, or projected future major emissions regions. Results indicate that historically high emissions regions, such as North America and Western Europe, produce a stronger cooling effect than current and projected future high emissions regions. Aerosol emissions located in Western Europe produce 3 times the global mean cooling (-0.34 °C) as those located in East Africa or India (-0.11 °C). The aerosols' in-situ radiative effects remain relatively confined near the emissions region, but large distal cooling results from remote feedback processes - such as ice albedo and cloud changes - that are excited more strongly by emissions from certain regions than others. Results suggest that aerosol emissions from different countries should not be considered equal in the context of climate mitigation accounting, and that the evolving geographic distribution of aerosol emissions may have a substantial impact on the magnitude and spatial distribution of global climate change.

The Evolving Risk of Climate Change and National Security: People not Polar Bears

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titley, D.

2014-12-01

This talk will provide a general overview of climate change and discuss why this is a national security issue. Climate change is about people, about water, and about change itself. Understanding the rate of climate change, relative to the abilities of both humans and ecosystems to adapt is critical. I will briefly describe the multiple, independent lines of evidence that the climate is changing, and that the primary cause of this change is a change in atmospheric composition caused by the burning of fossil fuels. I will cover the history of climate change as seen within the U.S. Department of Defense and U.S. Navy, how this challenge is being addressed from budgetary, policy, and political angles, and what are the greatest challenges to national security that arise from climate change and in particular, the associated changes in the Arctic. I will conclude with an assessment of future challenges and opportunities regarding climate change, from science, policy, and political perspectives, and why we know enough to take significant action now, even if we don't know every detail about the future. In addition, this talk will address how to effectively talk about climate change through the use of analogies, plain, non-jargon English, and even a little humor.

Identifying Predictors of Arsenic Bioavailability in Low-Sulfide, Quartz-Hosted Gold Deposits: Case Study at the Empire Mine State Historic Park, CA, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foster, A. L.; Alpers, C. N.; Burlak Regnier, T.; Blum, A.; Petersen, E. U.; Basta, N. T.; Whitacre, S.; Casteel, S. W.; Kim, C. S.

2016-12-01

Seattle Public Utilities (SPU) provides high quality drinking water to 1.4 million people in the greater Seattle area and storm, wastewater and solid waste services to the City of Seattle. SPU's engagement on climate change has evolved significantly over the past 20 years. What began in 1997 as an inquiry into how El Nino may affect water supply has evolved into a broad based ongoing exploration that includes extensive in-house knowledge, capacity and expertise. This presentation will describe SPU's evolution from a funder and consumer of climate research to an active contributor to the development of applied research products, highlighted SPU's changing role in three climate impacts assessment studies. It will describe how SPU has leveraged these studies and partnerships to enhance its knowledge base, build its internal institutional capacity and produce actionable science that it is helping to foster incorporation of climate change into various aspects of utility planning and decision making. It will describe the PUMA Project and how the results from that research effort are being factored into SPU's state mandated Water System Plan.

Climate change, transgenic corn adoption and field-evolved resistance in corn earworm.

PubMed

Venugopal, P Dilip; Dively, Galen P

2017-06-01

Increased temperature anomaly during the twenty-first century coincides with the proliferation of transgenic crops containing the bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis (Berliner) (Bt) to express insecticidal Cry proteins. Increasing temperatures profoundly affect insect life histories and agricultural pest management. However, the implications of climate change on Bt crop-pest interactions and insect resistance to Bt crops remains unexamined. We analysed the relationship of temperature anomaly and Bt adoption with field-evolved resistance to Cry1Ab Bt sweet corn in a major pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie). Increased Bt adoption during 1996-2016 suppressed H. zea populations, but increased temperature anomaly buffers population reduction. Temperature anomaly and its interaction with elevated selection pressure from high Bt acreage probably accelerated the Bt-resistance development. Helicoverpa zea damage to corn ears, kernel area consumed, mean instars and proportion of late instars in Bt varieties increased with Bt adoption and temperature anomaly, through additive or interactive effects. Risk of Bt-resistant H. zea spreading is high given extensive Bt adoption, and the expected increase in overwintering and migration. Our study highlights the challenges posed by climate change for Bt biotechnology-based agricultural pest management, and the need to incorporate evolutionary processes affected by climate change into Bt-resistance management programmes.

Emergence, reductionism and landscape response to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, Stephan; Mighall, Tim

2010-05-01

Predicting landscape response to external forcing is hampered by the non-linear, stochastic and contingent (ie dominated by historical accidents) forcings inherent in landscape evolution. Using examples from research carried out in southwest Ireland we suggest that non-linearity in landform evolution is likely to be a strong control making regional predictions of landscape response to climate change very difficult. While uncertainties in GCM projections have been widely explored in climate science much less attention has been directed by geomorphologists to the uncertainties in landform evolution under conditions of climate change and this problem may be viewed within the context of philosophical approaches to reductionsim and emergence. Understanding the present and future trajectory of landform change may also guide us to provide an enhanced appreciation of how landforms evolved in the past.

Space sensors for global change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Canavan, G.H.

1994-02-15

Satellite measurements should contribute to a fuller understanding of the physical processes behind the radiation budget, exchange processes, and global change. Climate engineering requires global observation for early indications of predicted effects, which puts a premium on affordable, distributed constellations of satellites with effective, affordable sensors. Defense has a requirement for continuous global surveillance for warning of aggression, which could evolve from advanced sensors and satellites in development. Many climate engineering needs match those of defense technologies.

Asia's changing role in global climate change.

PubMed

Siddiqi, Toufiq A

2008-10-01

Asia's role in global climate change has evolved significantly from the time when the Kyoto Protocol was being negotiated. Emissions of carbon dioxide, the principal greenhouse gas, from energy use in Asian countries now exceed those from the European Union or North America. Three of the top five emitters-China, India, and Japan, are Asian countries. Any meaningful global effort to address global climate change requires the active cooperation of these and other large Asian countries, if it is to succeed. Issues of equity between countries, within countries, and between generations, need to be tackled. Some quantitative current and historic data to illustrate the difficulties involved are provided, and one approach to making progress is suggested.

Can spatial patterns along climatic gradients predict ecosystem responses to climate change? Experimenting with reaction-diffusion simulations.

PubMed

Roitberg, Elena; Shoshany, Maxim

2017-01-01

Following a predicted decline in water resources in the Mediterranean Basin, we used reaction-diffusion equations to gain a better understanding of expected changes in properties of vegetation patterns that evolve along the rainfall transition between semi-arid and arid rainfall regions. Two types of scenarios were investigated: the first, a discrete scenario, where the potential consequences of climate change are represented by patterns evolving at discrete rainfall levels along a rainfall gradient. This scenario concerns space-for-time substitutions characteristic of the rainfall gradient hypothesis. The second, a continuous scenario, represents explicitly the effect of rainfall decline on patterns which evolved at different rainfall levels along the rainfall gradient prior to the climate change. The eccentricity of patterns that emerge through these two scenarios was found to decrease with decreasing rainfall, while their solidity increased. Due to their inverse modes of change, their ratio was found to be a highly sensitive indicator for pattern response to rainfall decline. An eccentricity ratio versus rainfall (ER:R) line was generalized from the results of the discrete experiment, where ERs above this line represent developed (recovered) patterns and ERs below this line represent degraded patterns. For the rainfall range of 1.2 to 0.8 mm/day, the continuous rainfall decline experiment with ERs that lie above the ER:R line, yielded patterns less affected by rainfall decline than would be expected according to the discrete representation of ecosystems' response. Thus, for this range, space-for-time substitution represents an overestimation of the consequences of the expected rainfall decline. For rainfall levels below 0.8 mm/day, eccentricity ratios from the discrete and continuous experiments practically converge to the same trend of pattern change along the ER:R line. Thus, the rainfall gradient hypothesis may be valid for regions characterized by this important rainfall range, which typically include desert fringe ecosystems.

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

PubMed

Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

2006-02-01

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

LCMS landscape change monitoring system—results from an information needs assessment

Treesearch

Kevin Megown; Brian Schwind; Don Evans; Mark Finco

2015-01-01

Understanding changes in land use and land cover over space and time provides an important means to evaluate complex interactions between human and biophysical systems, to project future conditions, and to design mitigation and adaptive management strategies. Assessing and monitoring landscape change is evolving into a foundational element of climate change adaptation...

Weathercasters' views on climate change: A state-of-the-community review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, K.; Perkins, D. R., IV; Myers, T.; Maibach, E.

2017-12-01

As a community of practice, TV weathercasters are positioned at a crucial intersection between climate scientists and the general public. Weathercasters have the opportunity to use their scientific training and public communication skills to educate viewers about climate change. Though early research found high rates of skepticism about climate change among TV weathercasters, the most current and comprehensive analysis to date of TV weathercasters' views on climate change suggests that their views have evolved in several important ways. Surveys of all working TV weathercasters in the United States conducted in 2015, 2016 and 2017 show that the weathercaster community now holds views of climate change that are similar to that of climate scientists—in particular, that human-caused climate change is happening today and it is impacting American communities in many harmful ways. Ninety-five percent of TV weathercasters now believe that climate change (as defined by the American Meteorological Society) is occurring, and certainty in that belief has grown. Nearly 50% of TV weathercasters believe the climate change that has occurred over the past 50 years has been caused mostly (34%), or largely to entirely (15%), by human activity. Additionally, surveys suggest that weathercasters tend to underestimate the scientific consensus on climate change. Weathercasters, on average, estimate 75% of climate scientists believe humans have caused the majority of recent climate change as compared to the actual value of 97%. Despite convergence in weathercasters' climate change beliefs, this analysis suggests that opportunities remain for building climate literacy among America's TV weathercasters. Increasing this personal knowledge of climate change is one of several factors that empower weathercasters to become public climate educators to increase understanding of climate change causes in communities around the country.

The Hydrological Evolution of Mars as Recorded at Gale Crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews-Hanna, J. C.; Horvath, D. G.

2017-12-01

The sedimentary deposits making up the Aeolis Mons sedimentary mound within Gale Crater preserve a record of the evolving hydrology and climate of Mars during the Late Noachian and Hesperian epochs. Aqueous sedimentary deposits including mudstones, deltaic deposits, and sulfate-cemented sediments indicate the past presence of liquid water on the surface. However, these observations alone do not strictly constrain the nature of the hydrology and climate at the time of deposition. We use models of the subsurface and surface hydrology to shed light on the conditions required to reproduce the observed deposits. Changes in the nature and composition of the deposits reflect changes in the balance between the surface and subsurface components of the hydrological cycle, driven by climate changes. Mudstones observed by the MSL rover at the base of the crater reflect lacustrine deposition under semi-arid conditions, with substantial fluid supply from both the surface (overland flow and direct precipitation) and subsurface. A transition at higher stratigraphic levels to sulfate-cemented sandstones required a change to a more arid climate, with the hydrology dominated by long-distance subsurface transport. Near the top of the mound, unaltered deposits indicate deposition under dry conditions, though this transition coincides with the natural limit on the rise of the water table imposed by the surrounding topography and does not require a change in climate. Erosion of the crater-filling sedimentary deposits to their present mound shape required a dramatic drop in the water table under hyper-arid conditions. Evidence for later lake stands in the Hesperian indicates transient returns to semi-arid conditions similar to those that prevailed during the Late Noachian. By coupling surface and orbital observations with hydrological modeling, we are able to make more specific constraints on the evolving climate and aridity of early Mars.

Adapting the US Food System to Climate Change Goes Beyond the Farm Gate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Easterling, W. E.

2014-12-01

The literature on climate change effects on food and agriculture has concentrated primarily on how crops and livestock likely will be directly affected by climate variability and change and by elevated carbon dioxide. Integrated assessments have simulated large-scale economic response to shifting agricultural productivity caused by climate change, including possible changes in food costs and prices. A small but growing literature has shown how different facets of agricultural production inside the farm gate could be adapted to climate variability and change. Very little research has examined how the full food system (production, processing and storage, transportation and trade, and consumption) is likely to be affected by climate change and how different adaptation approaches will be required by different parts of the food system. This paper will share partial results of a major assessment sponsored by USDA to determine how climate change-induced changes in global food security could affect the US food system. Emphasis is given to understanding how adaptation strategies differ widely across the food system. A common thread, however, is risk management-based decision making. Technologies and management strategies may co-evolve with climate change but a risk management framework for implementing those technologies and strategies may provide a stable foundation.

Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change in fish

PubMed Central

Crozier, Lisa G; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-01-01

The physical and ecological ‘fingerprints’ of anthropogenic climate change over the past century are now well documented in many environments and taxa. We reviewed the evidence for phenotypic responses to recent climate change in fish. Changes in the timing of migration and reproduction, age at maturity, age at juvenile migration, growth, survival and fecundity were associated primarily with changes in temperature. Although these traits can evolve rapidly, only two studies attributed phenotypic changes formally to evolutionary mechanisms. The correlation-based methods most frequently employed point largely to ‘fine-grained’ population responses to environmental variability (i.e. rapid phenotypic changes relative to generation time), consistent with plastic mechanisms. Ultimately, many species will likely adapt to long-term warming trends overlaid on natural climate oscillations. Considering the strong plasticity in all traits studied, we recommend development and expanded use of methods capable of detecting evolutionary change, such as the long term study of selection coefficients and temporal shifts in reaction norms, and increased attention to forecasting adaptive change in response to the synergistic interactions of the multiple selection pressures likely to be associated with climate change. PMID:24454549

Plastic and evolutionary responses to climate change in fish.

PubMed

Crozier, Lisa G; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-01-01

The physical and ecological 'fingerprints' of anthropogenic climate change over the past century are now well documented in many environments and taxa. We reviewed the evidence for phenotypic responses to recent climate change in fish. Changes in the timing of migration and reproduction, age at maturity, age at juvenile migration, growth, survival and fecundity were associated primarily with changes in temperature. Although these traits can evolve rapidly, only two studies attributed phenotypic changes formally to evolutionary mechanisms. The correlation-based methods most frequently employed point largely to 'fine-grained' population responses to environmental variability (i.e. rapid phenotypic changes relative to generation time), consistent with plastic mechanisms. Ultimately, many species will likely adapt to long-term warming trends overlaid on natural climate oscillations. Considering the strong plasticity in all traits studied, we recommend development and expanded use of methods capable of detecting evolutionary change, such as the long term study of selection coefficients and temporal shifts in reaction norms, and increased attention to forecasting adaptive change in response to the synergistic interactions of the multiple selection pressures likely to be associated with climate change.

Red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) cold hardiness and freezing injury susceptibility. Chapter 18

Treesearch

Donald H. DeHayes; Paul G. Schaberg; G.Richard Strimbeck

2001-01-01

To survive subfreezing winter temperatmes, perennial plant species have evolved tissue-specific mechanisms to undergo changes in freezing tolerance that parallel seasonal variations in climate. As such, most northern temperate tree species, including conifers, are adapted to the habitat and climatic conditions within their natural ranges and suffer little or no...

Putting the Weather Back Into Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Leonard A.; Stainforth, David A.

2014-05-01

The literature contains a variety of definitions of climate, and the emphasis in these definitions has changed over time. Defining climate as a mean value is, of course, both limiting and misleading; definitions of climate based on averages have been deprecated as far back as 1931 [1]. In the context of current efforts to produce climate predictions for use in climate adaptation, it is timely to consider how well various definitions of climate serve the research for applications community. From a nonlinear dynamical systems perspective it is common to associate climate with a system's natural measure (or "attractor" if such an object exists). Such a definition is not easily applied to physical systems where we have limited observations over a restricted period of time; the duration of 30 years is often mentioned today and the origin of this period is discussed. Given a dynamic system in which parameters are evolving in time, the view of climate as a natural measure becomes problematic as, by definition, there may be no attractor per se. Attractors defined for particular parameter values cannot be expected to have any association with the probability of states under transient changes in the values of that parameter. Alternatively, distributions may be determined which reflect the transient situation, based on (rather broad) additional assumptions regarding the state of the system at some point in the past (say, an ice age planet vs an interglacial planet). Such distributions reflect many of the properties one would hope to be represented in a generalised definition of the system's climate. Here we trace how definitions of climate have changed over time and highlight a number of properties of definitions of climate which would facilitate common use across researchers, from observers to theoreticians, from climate modellers to mathematicians. We show while periodic changes in parameter values (such as those found in an annual cycle or a diurnal cycle) are easily incorporated within the traditional nonlinear dynamical systems view, non-periodic or secular changes (such as those due to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations) yield an open challenge. We argue the need both for clarifying and for clearly meeting the open challenges of defining climate in relation to the state of an evolving system, and suggest a path forward. [1] Miller, A.A., 1931: Climatology. First Ed. Methuen.

Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

2011-12-01

Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

Predicting phenology by integrating ecology, evolution and climate science

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pau, Stephanie; Wolkovich, Elizabeth M.; Cook, Benjamin I.; Davies, T. Jonathan; Kraft, Nathan J.B.; Bolmgren, Kjell; Betancourt, Julio L.; Cleland, Elsa E.

2011-01-01

Forecasting how species and ecosystems will respond to climate change has been a major aim of ecology in recent years. Much of this research has focused on phenology — the timing of life-history events. Phenology has well-demonstrated links to climate, from genetic to landscape scales; yet our ability to explain and predict variation in phenology across species, habitats and time remains poor. Here, we outline how merging approaches from ecology, climate science and evolutionary biology can advance research on phenological responses to climate variability. Using insight into seasonal and interannual climate variability combined with niche theory and community phylogenetics, we develop a predictive approach for species' reponses to changing climate. Our approach predicts that species occupying higher latitudes or the early growing season should be most sensitive to climate and have the most phylogenetically conserved phenologies. We further predict that temperate species will respond to climate change by shifting in time, while tropical species will respond by shifting space, or by evolving. Although we focus here on plant phenology, our approach is broadly applicable to ecological research of plant responses to climate variability.

Green cities, smart people and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mansouri Kouhestani, F.; Byrne, J. M.; Hazendonk, P.; Brown, M. B.; Harrison, T.

2014-12-01

Climate change will require substantial changes to urban environments. Cities are huge sources of greenhouse gases. Further, cities will suffer tremendously under climate change due to heat stresses, urban flooding, energy and water supply and demand changes, transportation problems, resource supply and demand and a host of other trials and tribulations. Cities that evolve most quickly and efficiently to deal with climate change will likely take advantage of the changes to create enjoyable, healthy and safer living spaces for families and communities. Technology will provide much of the capability to both mitigate and adapt our cities BUT education and coordination of citizen and community lifestyle likely offers equal opportunities to make our cities more sustainable and more enjoyable places to live. This work is the first phase of a major project evaluating urban mitigation and adaptation policies, programs and technologies. All options are considered, from changes in engineering, planning and management; and including a range of citizen and population-based lifestyle practices.

Impact of climate change and human activity on soil landscapes over the past 12,300 years.

PubMed

Rothacker, Leo; Dosseto, Anthony; Francke, Alexander; Chivas, Allan R; Vigier, Nathalie; Kotarba-Morley, Anna M; Menozzi, Davide

2018-01-10

Soils are key to ecosystems and human societies, and their critical importance requires a better understanding of how they evolve through time. However, identifying the role of natural climate change versus human activity (e.g. agriculture) on soil evolution is difficult. Here we show that for most of the past 12,300 years soil erosion and development were impacted differently by natural climate variability, as recorded by sediments deposited in Lake Dojran (Macedonia/Greece): short-lived ( < 1,000 years) climatic shifts had no effect on soil development but impacted soil erosion. This decoupling disappeared between 3,500 and 3,100 years ago, when the sedimentary record suggests an unprecedented erosion event associated with the development of agriculture in the region. Our results show unambiguously how differently soils evolved under natural climate variability (between 12,300 and 3,500 years ago) and later in response to intensifying human impact. The transition from natural to anthropogenic landscape started just before, or at, the onset of the Greek 'Dark Ages' (~3,200 cal yr BP). This could represent the earliest recorded sign of a negative feedback between civilization and environmental impact, where the development of agriculture impacted soil resources, which in turn resulted in a slowdown of civilization expansion.

Mapping 'consistency' in India's climate change position: Dynamics and dilemmas of science diplomacy.

PubMed

Gupta, Himangana; Kohli, Ravinder Kumar; Ahluwalia, Amrik Singh

2015-10-01

India's position on climate change negotiations is likely to have far reaching implications for the success of global climate cooperation. Since the beginning of negotiations, the principle of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) remained the centerpiece of India's stand. The stand started to evolve at the 15th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at Copenhagen in 2009, when India accepted voluntary commitments to reduce emission intensity. Though India still swears by CBDR, status of the principle in the negotiations has become doubtful after the Durban Climate Conference in 2011 committed all parties to take emission targets. This paper traces major transition points in India's negotiating position over the years and provides a descriptive context of its climate-related concerns. It analyzes the interview responses of 15 top scientists, experts, and negotiators to build upon core areas of climate change issues in India, its future role, and position in negotiations. Interviewees, in general, were in favor of protecting the carbon space for the poor who had very low emissions.

The Climate Literacy and Energy Awareness Network (CLEAN) - Enabling Collective Impact on Climate and Energy Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Gold, A. U.; Niepold, F., III

2015-12-01

Numerous climate change education efforts exist that aim to enable citizens and society to make informed decisions addressing environmental and societal issues arising from climate change. To extend the reach and impact of these efforts, it is necessary to coordinate them in order to reach a greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network, as an example of a rudimentary form of such an organization, engages in continuous communication through weekly teleconferences, an active listserv and other activities to share resources, activities, and ideas that is moving the network to develop common understandings that will likely lead to the development of effective collective impact on increasing climate and energy literacy. A Spring 2013 survey of the CLEAN Network provided insight as to how the CLEAN Network was addressing member needs and identified what other support was needed to increase its collective impact. In addition, community discussions identified the components needed for an effective overarching backbone support organization. A Fall 2015 survey of the CLEAN Network and the broader climate change education community is being conducted to examine 1) how the CLEAN Network make up and needs have evolved and how they compare to the broader community, and 2) to gather further input into the shaping of the elements of collective impact on climate and energy literacy. This presentation will describe the results from the 2015 survey and compare them to the 2013 survey and the community discussions. This will include describing the CLEAN Network's evolving professional make up, engagement of its members network activities, the importance of the network to members; how the findings compare with the broader climate change education community, and how the collective impact can be increased.

Landscape co-evolution and river discharge.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Velde, Ype; Temme, Arnaud

2015-04-01

Fresh water is crucial for society and ecosystems. However, our ability to secure fresh water resources under climatic and anthropogenic change is impaired by the complexity of interactions between human society, ecosystems, soils, and topography. These interactions cause landscape properties to co-evolve, continuously changing the flow paths of water through the landscape. These co-evolution driven flow path changes and their effect on river runoff are, to-date, poorly understood. In this presentation we introduce a spatially distributed landscape evolution model that incorporates growing vegetation and its effect on evapotranspiration, interception, infiltration, soil permeability, groundwater-surface water exchange and erosion. This landscape scale (10km2) model is calibrated to evolve towards well known empirical organising principles such as the Budyko curve and Hacks law under different climate conditions. To understand how positive and negative feedbacks within the model structure form complex landscape patterns of forests and peat bogs that resemble observed landscapes under humid and boreal climates, we analysed the effects of individual processes on the spatial distribution of vegetation and river peak and mean flows. Our results show that especially river peak flows and droughts decrease with increasing evolution of the landscape, which is a result that has direct implications for flood management.

Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua; Watson, James; Game, Edward

2015-01-01

An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation-a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems.

Supporting UK adaptation: building services for the next set of UK climate projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fung, Fai; Lowe, Jason

2016-04-01

As part of the Climate Change Act 2008, the UK Government sets out a national adaptation programme to address the risks and opportunities identified in a national climate change risk assessment (CCRA) every five years. The last risk assessment in 2012 was based on the probabilistic projections for the UK published in 2009 (UKCP09). The second risk assessment will also use information from UKCP09 alongside other evidence on climate projections. However, developments in the science of climate projeciton, and evolving user needs (based partly on what has been learnt about the diverse user requirements of the UK adaptation community from the seven years of delivering and managing UKCP09 products, market research and the peer-reviewed literature) suggest now is an appropriate time to update the projections and how they are delivered. A new set of UK climate projections are now being produced to upgrade UKCP09 to reflect the latest developments in climate science, the first phase of which will be delivered in 2018 to support the third CCRA. A major component of the work is the building of a tailored service to support users of the new projections during their development and to involve users in key decisions so that the projections are of most use. We will set out the plan for the new climate projections that seek to address the evolving user need. We will also present a framework which aims to (i) facilitate the dialogue between users, boundary organisations and producers, reflecting their different decision-making roles (ii) produce scientifically robust, user-relevant climate information (iii) provide the building blocks for developing further climate services to support adaptation activities in the UK.

Climate Change in the Arctic, Moving from Acceptance to Adaptation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinzman, L. D.

2009-12-01

In Alaska, we no longer discuss climate change using words such as “possible” or “potential”. It has arrived. There is ample evidence of impacts from a changing climate in Alaska, primarily due to the predominance of snow, ice and permafrost. The presence or absence of frozen ground or water will dominate the local ecology, hydrology, physical characteristics and surface energy balance. As the soil or ice progresses through thawing, threshold changes occur that may initiate a cascade of events resulting in substantial changes to the regional character. If one examines any individual scientific discipline, evidence of climate change in arctic regions offers only pieces of the puzzle. This presentation will include a broad array of evidence to provide a convincing case of change in the arctic climate and a system-wide response of terrestrial processes. The thermal regime of the Arctic holds unique characteristics and consequently will display marked changes in response to climate warming. In many cases, threshold changes will occur in physical systems proceeding from permanently frozen to periodically thawed. Dramatic changes also accompany biological systems adapting to an evolving environment. It is expected that the effects and consequences of a warming climate will become even more evident within the next 10 to 50 years so our society must now consider actions related to adaptation and preparation for change.

Stratospheric temperature trends: History of our evolving understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seidel, D. J.; Gillett, N. P.; Lanzante, J.; Shine, K. P.; Thorne, P.

2010-12-01

Changes in greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone concentrations are known to force long-term trends in stratospheric temperature. Therefore, national and international assessments of climate change and stratospheric ozone depletion over the past several decades have included discussion of observed and projected stratospheric temperature trends. Similarly, tropospheric temperature trends have figured prominently in the climate change literature; they have been the subject of considerable controversy. Although many of the same modeling and observational tools have been applied, and there are many common scientific issues in both regions of the atmosphere, stratospheric temperatures have not captured the imagination of the public, the popular press and public policy community. We present an historical review of our evolving understanding of stratospheric temperature trends, including both observational and modeling perspectives, from the 1970’s to present. Comparisons and contrasts will be drawn between the stratospheric and tropospheric temperature trend literature, including observing systems, dataset development for trend estimates, modeling approaches, and associated uncertainties. Recent developments will be highlighted.

Editorial. Introduction to the regional assessments: Climate change, wildfire, and forest ecosystem services in the USA

Treesearch

Monique E. Rocca; Chelcy Ford Miniat; Robert J. Mitchell

2014-01-01

Fires have influenced and shaped vegetation ever since the climate evolved to provide both ignition sources and oxygen (Bowman et al., 2009). Fire has been one of the most frequent and impactful disturbances to ecosystems globally, and thus one of the major regulators of forest composition, function and dynamics (Spurr and Barnes, 1973 and Bond and Keeley, 2005). Any...

Limited evolutionary rescue of locally adapted populations facing climate change.

PubMed

Schiffers, Katja; Bourne, Elizabeth C; Lavergne, Sébastien; Thuiller, Wilfried; Travis, Justin M J

2013-01-19

Dispersal is a key determinant of a population's evolutionary potential. It facilitates the propagation of beneficial alleles throughout the distributional range of spatially outspread populations and increases the speed of adaptation. However, when habitat is heterogeneous and individuals are locally adapted, dispersal may, at the same time, reduce fitness through increasing maladaptation. Here, we use a spatially explicit, allelic simulation model to quantify how these equivocal effects of dispersal affect a population's evolutionary response to changing climate. Individuals carry a diploid set of chromosomes, with alleles coding for adaptation to non-climatic environmental conditions and climatic conditions, respectively. Our model results demonstrate that the interplay between gene flow and habitat heterogeneity may decrease effective dispersal and population size to such an extent that substantially reduces the likelihood of evolutionary rescue. Importantly, even when evolutionary rescue saves a population from extinction, its spatial range following climate change may be strongly narrowed, that is, the rescue is only partial. These findings emphasize that neglecting the impact of non-climatic, local adaptation might lead to a considerable overestimation of a population's evolvability under rapid environmental change.

Climatic origins predict variation in photoprotective leaf pigments in response to drought and low temperatures in live oaks (Quercus series Virentes).

PubMed

Ramírez-Valiente, Jose A; Koehler, Kari; Cavender-Bares, Jeannine

2015-05-01

Climate is a major selective force in nature. Exploring patterns of inter- and intraspecific genetic variation in functional traits may explain how species have evolved and may continue evolving under future climate change. Photoprotective pigments play an important role in short-term responses to climate stress in plants but knowledge of their long-term role in adaptive processes is lacking. In this study, our goal was to determine how photoprotective mechanisms, morphological traits and their plasticity have evolved in live oaks (Quercus series Virentes) in response to different climatic conditions. For this purpose, seedlings originating from 11 populations from four live oak species (Quercus virginiana, Q. geminata, Q. fusiformis and Q. oleoides) were grown under contrasting common environmental conditions of temperature (tropical vs temperate) and water availability (droughted vs well-watered). Xanthophyll cycle pigments, anthocyanin accumulation, chlorophyll fluorescence parameters and leaf anatomical traits were measured. Seedlings originating from more mesic source populations of Q. oleoides and Q. fusiformis increased the xanthophyll de-epoxidation state under water-limiting conditions and showed higher phenotypic plasticity for this trait, suggesting adaptation to local climate. Likewise, seedlings originating from warmer climates had higher anthocyanin concentration in leaves under cold winter conditions but not higher de-epoxidation state. Overall, our findings suggest that (i) climate has been a key factor in shaping species and population differences in stress tolerance for live oaks, (ii) anthocyanins are used under cold stress in species with limited freezing tolerance and (iii) xanthophyll cycle pigments are used when photoprotection under drought conditions is needed. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The predictive state: Science, territory and the future of the Indian climate.

PubMed

Mahony, Martin

2014-02-01

Acts of scientific calculation have long been considered central to the formation of the modern nation state, yet the transnational spaces of knowledge generation and political action associated with climate change seem to challenge territorial modes of political order. This article explores the changing geographies of climate prediction through a study of the ways in which climate change is rendered knowable at the national scale in India. The recent controversy surrounding an erroneous prediction of melting Himalayan glaciers by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides a window onto the complex and, at times, antagonistic relationship between the Panel and Indian political and scientific communities. The Indian reaction to the error, made public in 2009, drew upon a national history of contestation around climate change science and corresponded with the establishment of a scientific assessment network, the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment, which has given the state a new platform on which to bring together knowledge about the future climate. I argue that the Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment is indicative of the growing use of regional climate models within longer traditions of national territorial knowledge-making, allowing a rescaling of climate change according to local norms and practices of linking scientific knowledge to political action. I illustrate the complex co-production of the epistemic and the normative in climate politics, but also seek to show how co-productionist understandings of science and politics can function as strategic resources in the ongoing negotiation of social order. In this case, scientific rationalities and modes of environmental governance contribute to the contested epistemic construction of territory and the evolving spatiality of the modern nation state under a changing climate.

Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine.

PubMed

Mosedale, Jonathan R; Abernethy, Kirsten E; Smart, Richard E; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

2016-11-01

The cultivation of grapevines for winemaking, known as viticulture, is widely cited as a climate-sensitive agricultural system that has been used as an indicator of both historic and contemporary climate change. Numerous studies have questioned the viability of major viticulture regions under future climate projections. We review the methods used to study the impacts of climate change on viticulture in the light of what is known about the effects of climate and weather on the yields and quality of vineyard harvests. Many potential impacts of climate change on viticulture, particularly those associated with a change in climate variability or seasonal weather patterns, are rarely captured. Key biophysical characteristics of viticulture are often unaccounted for, including the variability of grapevine phenology and the exploitation of microclimatic niches that permit successful cultivation under suboptimal macroclimatic conditions. We consider how these same biophysical characteristics permit a variety of strategies by which viticulture can adapt to changing climatic conditions. The ability to realize these strategies, however, is affected by uneven exposure to risks across the winemaking sector, and the evolving capacity for decision-making within and across organizational boundaries. The role grape provenance plays in shaping perceptions of wine value and quality illustrates how conflicts of interest influence decisions about adaptive strategies within the industry. We conclude by considering what lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

STEM-Based Computational Modeling for Technology Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clark, Aaron C.; Ernst, Jeremy V.

2008-01-01

According to professionals in education, change is an ever-present and evolving process. With transformation in education at both state and national levels, technology education must determine a position in this climate of change. This paper reflects the views on the future of technology education based on an ongoing research project. The purpose…

Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation.

PubMed

Herrero, M; Addison, J; Bedelian, C; Carabine, E; Havlík, P; Henderson, B; Van De Steeg, J; Thornton, P K

2016-11-01

The authors discuss the main climate change impacts on pastoralist societies, including those on rangelands, livestock and other natural resources, and their extended repercussions on food security, incomes and vulnerability. The impacts of climate change on the rangelands of the globe and on the vulnerability of the people who inhabit them will be severe and diverse, and will require multiple, simultaneous responses. In higher latitudes, the removal of temperature constraints might increase pasture production and livestock productivity, but in tropical arid lands, the impacts are highly location specific, but mostly negative. The authors outline several adaptation options, ranging from implementing new technical practices and diversifying income sources to finding institutional support and introducing new market mechanisms, all of which are pivotal for enhancing the capacity of pastoralists to adapt to climate variability and change. Due to the dynamism of all the changes affecting pastoral societies, strategies that lock pastoral societies into specified development pathways could be maladaptive. Flexible and evolving combinations of practices and policies are the key to successful pastoral adaptation.

Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments

PubMed Central

Lawler, Joshua; Watson, James; Game, Edward

2015-01-01

An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation—a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems. PMID:26937271

Climate Change and Risks to National Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titley, D.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts national security in three ways: through changes in the operating environments of the military; by increasing risks to security infrastructure, specifically bases and training ranges; and by exacerbating and accelerating the risks of state collapse and conflict in regions that are already fragile and unstable. Additionally there will be unique security challenges in the Arctic as sea-ice melts out and human activities increase across multiple dimensions. Military forces will also likely see increased demand for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief resulting from a combination of increased human population, rising sea-level, and potentially stronger and wetter storms. The talk will explore some of the lesser known aspects of these changes, examine selected climate-driven 'wild cards' that have the potential to disrupt regional and global security, and explore how migration in the face of a changing climate may heighten security issues. I will assess the positions U.S. executive and legislative branches with respect to climate & security, and how those positions have evolved since the November 2016 election, sometimes in counter-intuitive ways. The talk will close with some recommended courses of action the security enterprise can take to manage this climate risk.

Valuing Groundwater Resources in Arid Watersheds under Climate Change: A Framework and Estimates for the Upper Rio Grande

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurd, B. H.; Coonrod, J.

2008-12-01

Climate change is expected to alter surface hydrology throughout the arid Western United States, in most cases compressing the period of peak snowmelt and runoff, and in some cases, for example, the Rio Grande, limiting total runoff. As such, climate change is widely expected to further stress arid watersheds, particularly in regions where trends in population growth, economic development and environmental regulation are current challenges. Strategies to adapt to such changes are evolving at various institutional levels including conjunctive management of surface and ground waters. Groundwater resources remain one of the key components of water management strategies aimed at accommodating continued population growth and mitigating the potential for water supply disruptions under climate change. By developing a framework for valuing these resources and for value improvements in the information pertaining to their characteristics, this research can assist in prioritizing infrastructure and investment to change and enhance water resource management. The key objective of this paper is to 1) develop a framework for estimating the value of groundwater resources and improved information, and 2) provide some preliminary estimates of this value and how it responds to plausible scenarios of climate change.

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

Environmental literacy framework with a focus on climate change (ELF): a framework and resources for teaching climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, L. T.; Blythe, D.; Dahlman, L. E.; Fischbein, S.; Johnson, K.; Kontar, Y.; Rack, F. R.; Kulhanek, D. K.; Pennycook, J.; Reed, J.; Youngman, B.; Reeves, M.; Thomas, R.

2010-12-01

The challenges of communicating climate change science to non-technical audiences present a daunting task, but one that is recognized in the science community as urgent and essential. ANDRILL's (ANtarctic geological DRILLing) international network of scientists, engineers, technicians and educators work together to convey a deeper understanding of current geoscience research as well as the process of science to non-technical audiences. One roadblock for educators who recognize the need to teach climate change has been the lack of a comprehensive, integrated set of resources and activities that are related to the National Science Education Standards. Pieces of the climate change puzzle can be found in the excellent work of the groups of science and education professionals who wrote the Essential Principles of Ocean Sciences, Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science, Earth Science Literacy Principles: The Big Ideas and Supporting Concepts of Earth Science, and Essential Principals and Fundamental Concepts for Atmospheric Science Literacy, but teachers have precious little time to search out the climate change goals and objectives in those frameworks and then find the resources to teach them. Through NOAA funding, ANDRILL has created a new framework, The Environmental Literacy Framework with a Focus on Climate Change (ELF), drawing on the works of the aforementioned groups, and promoting an Earth Systems approach to teaching climate change through five units: Atmosphere, Biosphere, Geosphere, Hydrosphere/Cryosphere, and Energy as the driver of interactions within and between the “spheres.” Each key concept in the framework has a hands-on, inquiry activity and matching NOAA resources for teaching the objectives. In its present form, we present a ‘road map’ for teaching climate change and a set of resources intended to continue to evolve over time.

A dynamic eco-evolutionary model predicts slow response of alpine plants to climate warming.

PubMed

Cotto, Olivier; Wessely, Johannes; Georges, Damien; Klonner, Günther; Schmid, Max; Dullinger, Stefan; Thuiller, Wilfried; Guillaume, Frédéric

2017-05-05

Withstanding extinction while facing rapid climate change depends on a species' ability to track its ecological niche or to evolve a new one. Current methods that predict climate-driven species' range shifts use ecological modelling without eco-evolutionary dynamics. Here we present an eco-evolutionary forecasting framework that combines niche modelling with individual-based demographic and genetic simulations. Applying our approach to four endemic perennial plant species of the Austrian Alps, we show that accounting for eco-evolutionary dynamics when predicting species' responses to climate change is crucial. Perennial species persist in unsuitable habitats longer than predicted by niche modelling, causing delayed range losses; however, their evolutionary responses are constrained because long-lived adults produce increasingly maladapted offspring. Decreasing population size due to maladaptation occurs faster than the contraction of the species range, especially for the most abundant species. Monitoring of species' local abundance rather than their range may likely better inform on species' extinction risks under climate change.

Life history trade-offs, the intensity of competition, and coexistence in novel and evolving communities under climate change.

PubMed

Lancaster, Lesley T; Morrison, Gavin; Fitt, Robert N

2017-01-19

The consequences of climate change for local biodiversity are little understood in process or mechanism, but these changes are likely to reflect both changing regional species pools and changing competitive interactions. Previous empirical work largely supports the idea that competition will intensify under climate change, promoting competitive exclusions and local extinctions, while theory and conceptual work indicate that relaxed competition may in fact buffer communities from biodiversity losses that are typically witnessed at broader spatial scales. In this review, we apply life history theory to understand the conditions under which these alternative scenarios may play out in the context of a range-shifting biota undergoing rapid evolutionary and environmental change, and at both leading-edge and trailing-edge communities. We conclude that, in general, warming temperatures are likely to reduce life history variation among competitors, intensifying competition in both established and novel communities. However, longer growing seasons, severe environmental stress and increased climatic variability associated with climate change may buffer these communities against intensified competition. The role of life history plasticity and evolution has been previously underappreciated in community ecology, but may hold the key to understanding changing species interactions and local biodiversity under changing climates.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'. © 2016 The Author(s).

Life history trade-offs, the intensity of competition, and coexistence in novel and evolving communities under climate change

PubMed Central

Morrison, Gavin; Fitt, Robert N.

2017-01-01

The consequences of climate change for local biodiversity are little understood in process or mechanism, but these changes are likely to reflect both changing regional species pools and changing competitive interactions. Previous empirical work largely supports the idea that competition will intensify under climate change, promoting competitive exclusions and local extinctions, while theory and conceptual work indicate that relaxed competition may in fact buffer communities from biodiversity losses that are typically witnessed at broader spatial scales. In this review, we apply life history theory to understand the conditions under which these alternative scenarios may play out in the context of a range-shifting biota undergoing rapid evolutionary and environmental change, and at both leading-edge and trailing-edge communities. We conclude that, in general, warming temperatures are likely to reduce life history variation among competitors, intensifying competition in both established and novel communities. However, longer growing seasons, severe environmental stress and increased climatic variability associated with climate change may buffer these communities against intensified competition. The role of life history plasticity and evolution has been previously underappreciated in community ecology, but may hold the key to understanding changing species interactions and local biodiversity under changing climates. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences’. PMID:27920390

Three keys to the radiation of angiosperms into freezing environments.

PubMed

Zanne, Amy E; Tank, David C; Cornwell, William K; Eastman, Jonathan M; Smith, Stephen A; FitzJohn, Richard G; McGlinn, Daniel J; O'Meara, Brian C; Moles, Angela T; Reich, Peter B; Royer, Dana L; Soltis, Douglas E; Stevens, Peter F; Westoby, Mark; Wright, Ian J; Aarssen, Lonnie; Bertin, Robert I; Calaminus, Andre; Govaerts, Rafaël; Hemmings, Frank; Leishman, Michelle R; Oleksyn, Jacek; Soltis, Pamela S; Swenson, Nathan G; Warman, Laura; Beaulieu, Jeremy M

2014-02-06

Early flowering plants are thought to have been woody species restricted to warm habitats. This lineage has since radiated into almost every climate, with manifold growth forms. As angiosperms spread and climate changed, they evolved mechanisms to cope with episodic freezing. To explore the evolution of traits underpinning the ability to persist in freezing conditions, we assembled a large species-level database of growth habit (woody or herbaceous; 49,064 species), as well as leaf phenology (evergreen or deciduous), diameter of hydraulic conduits (that is, xylem vessels and tracheids) and climate occupancies (exposure to freezing). To model the evolution of species' traits and climate occupancies, we combined these data with an unparalleled dated molecular phylogeny (32,223 species) for land plants. Here we show that woody clades successfully moved into freezing-prone environments by either possessing transport networks of small safe conduits and/or shutting down hydraulic function by dropping leaves during freezing. Herbaceous species largely avoided freezing periods by senescing cheaply constructed aboveground tissue. Growth habit has long been considered labile, but we find that growth habit was less labile than climate occupancy. Additionally, freezing environments were largely filled by lineages that had already become herbs or, when remaining woody, already had small conduits (that is, the trait evolved before the climate occupancy). By contrast, most deciduous woody lineages had an evolutionary shift to seasonally shedding their leaves only after exposure to freezing (that is, the climate occupancy evolved before the trait). For angiosperms to inhabit novel cold environments they had to gain new structural and functional trait solutions; our results suggest that many of these solutions were probably acquired before their foray into the cold.

The unexpected confluence of plasma physics and climate science: On the lives and legacies of Norman Rostoker and Sherry Rowland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mackey, Katherine R. M.

2016-03-01

The Norman Rostoker Memorial Symposium brought together approximately 150 attendees to share their recent work and to reflect on the contributions of Norman Rostoker to the field of plasma physics and the advancement of fusion as a source of renewable clean energy. The field has changed considerably in a few short decades, with theoretical advances and technological innovations evolving in lock step. Over those same decades, our understanding of human induced climate change has also evolved; measurable changes in Earth's physical, chemical, and biological processes have already been observed, and these will likely intensify in the coming decades. Never before has the need for clean energy been more pronounced, or the need for transformative solutions more pressing. As scientists work with legislators, journalists, and the public to take actions to address the threat of climate change, there is much to be learned from the legacies of innovators like Norman Rostoker, who have tackled complex problems with scientific insight and determination even when the odds were stacked against them. I write this from the perspective on an Earth system scientist who studies photosynthesis and the biogeochemistry of the oceans, and my statements about plasma physics and Norman Rostoker are based on information I gathered from the colloquium and from many enjoyable conversations with his friends and colleagues.

The unexpected confluence of plasma physics and climate science: On the lives and legacies of Norman Rostoker and Sherry Rowland

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mackey, Katherine R. M.

The Norman Rostoker Memorial Symposium brought together approximately 150 attendees to share their recent work and to reflect on the contributions of Norman Rostoker to the field of plasma physics and the advancement of fusion as a source of renewable clean energy. The field has changed considerably in a few short decades, with theoretical advances and technological innovations evolving in lock step. Over those same decades, our understanding of human induced climate change has also evolved; measurable changes in Earth’s physical, chemical, and biological processes have already been observed, and these will likely intensify in the coming decades. Never beforemore » has the need for clean energy been more pronounced, or the need for transformative solutions more pressing. As scientists work with legislators, journalists, and the public to take actions to address the threat of climate change, there is much to be learned from the legacies of innovators like Norman Rostoker, who have tackled complex problems with scientific insight and determination even when the odds were stacked against them. I write this from the perspective on an Earth system scientist who studies photosynthesis and the biogeochemistry of the oceans, and my statements about plasma physics and Norman Rostoker are based on information I gathered from the colloquium and from many enjoyable conversations with his friends and colleagues.« less

Ecological opportunity and the evolution of habitat preferences in an arid-zone bird: implications for speciation in a climate-modified landscape

PubMed Central

Norman, Janette A.; Christidis, Les

2016-01-01

Bioclimatic models are widely used to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distributions. Range shifts are expected to occur as species track their current climate niche yet the potential for exploitation of new ecological opportunities that may arise as ecosystems and communities remodel is rarely considered. Here we show that grasswrens of the Amytornis textilis-modestus complex responded to new ecological opportunities in Australia’s arid biome through shifts in habitat preference following the development of chenopod shrublands during the late Plio-Pleistocene. We find evidence of spatially explicit responses to climatically driven landscape changes including changes in niche width and patterns of population growth. Conservation of structural and functional aspects of the ancestral niche appear to have facilitated recent habitat shifts, while demographic responses to late Pleistocene climate change provide evidence for the greater resilience of populations inhabiting the recently evolved chenopod shrubland communities. Similar responses could occur under future climate change in species exposed to novel ecological conditions, or those already occupying spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models that consider structural and functional aspects of the niche along with regional hydro-dynamics may be better predictors of future climate responses in Australia’s arid biome than bioclimatic models alone. PMID:26787111

Projecting climate change impacts on hydrology: the potential role of daily GCM output

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, E. P.; Hidalgo, H. G.; Das, T.; Dettinger, M. D.; Cayan, D.

2008-12-01

A primary challenge facing resource managers in accommodating climate change is determining the range and uncertainty in regional and local climate projections. This is especially important for assessing changes in extreme events, which will drive many of the more severe impacts of a changed climate. Since global climate models (GCMs) produce output at a spatial scale incompatible with local impact assessment, different techniques have evolved to downscale GCM output so locally important climate features are expressed in the projections. We compared skill and hydrologic projections using two statistical downscaling methods and a distributed hydrology model. The downscaling methods are the constructed analogues (CA) and the bias correction and spatial downscaling (BCSD). CA uses daily GCM output, and can thus capture GCM projections for changing extreme event occurrence, while BCSD uses monthly output and statistically generates historical daily sequences. We evaluate the hydrologic impacts projected using downscaled climate (from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis as a surrogate GCM) for the late 20th century with both methods, comparing skill in projecting soil moisture, snow pack, and streamflow at key locations in the Western United States. We include an assessment of a new method for correcting for GCM biases in a hybrid method combining the most important characteristics of both methods.

The timing of flowering in Douglas-fir is determined by cool-season temperatures and genetic variation

Treesearch

Janet S. Prevey; Constance A. Harrington; J. Bradley St. Clair

2018-01-01

Trees have evolved to time flowering to maximize outcrossing, minimize exposure to damaging frosts, and synchronize development with soil moisture and nutrient availability. Understanding the environmental cues that influence the timing of reproductive budburst will be important for predicting how flowering phenology of trees will change with a changing climate, and...

A global food demand model for the assessment of complex human-earth systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

EDMONDS, JAMES A.; LINK, ROBERT; WALDHOFF, STEPHANIE T.

Demand for agricultural products is an important problem in climate change economics. Food consumption will shape and shaped by climate change and emissions mitigation policies through interactions with bioenergy and afforestation, two critical issues in meeting international climate goals such as two-degrees. We develop a model of food demand for staple and nonstaple commodities that evolves with changing incomes and prices. The model addresses a long-standing issue in estimating food demands, the evolution of demand relationships across large changes in income and prices. We discuss the model, some of its properties and limitations. We estimate parameter values using pooled cross-sectional-time-seriesmore » observations and the Metropolis Monte Carlo method and cross-validate the model by estimating parameters using a subset of the observations and test its ability to project into the unused observations. Finally, we apply bias correction techniques borrowed from the climate-modeling community and report results.« less

Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Thorpe, Roger S; Barlow, Axel; Malhotra, Anita; Surget-Groba, Yann

2015-03-01

Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: overview and implications for policy makers.

PubMed

Haines, Andy; McMichael, Anthony J; Smith, Kirk R; Roberts, Ian; Woodcock, James; Markandya, Anil; Armstrong, Ben G; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Dangour, Alan D; Davies, Michael; Bruce, Nigel; Tonne, Cathryn; Barrett, Mark; Wilkinson, Paul

2009-12-19

This Series has examined the health implications of policies aimed at tackling climate change. Assessments of mitigation strategies in four domains-household energy, transport, food and agriculture, and electricity generation-suggest an important message: that actions to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions often, although not always, entail net benefits for health. In some cases, the potential benefits seem to be substantial. This evidence provides an additional and immediate rationale for reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions beyond that of climate change mitigation alone. Climate change is an increasing and evolving threat to the health of populations worldwide. At the same time, major public health burdens remain in many regions. Climate change therefore adds further urgency to the task of addressing international health priorities, such as the UN Millennium Development Goals. Recognition that mitigation strategies can have substantial benefits for both health and climate protection offers the possibility of policy choices that are potentially both more cost effective and socially attractive than are those that address these priorities independently. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time-varying Concurrent Risk of Extreme Droughts and Heatwaves in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Ausin, M. C.

2016-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena such as droughts and heatwaves. The concurrent of these nature-changing climatic extremes may result in intensifying undesirable consequences in terms of human health and destructive effects in water resources. The present study assesses the risk of concurrent extreme droughts and heatwaves under dynamic nonstationary conditions arising from climate change in California. For doing so, a generalized fully Bayesian time-varying multivariate risk framework is proposed evolving through time under dynamic human-induced environment. In this methodology, an extreme, Bayesian, dynamic copula (Gumbel) is developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes. The time-varying extreme marginals are previously modeled using a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference is integrated to estimate parameters of the nonstationary marginals and copula using a Gibbs sampling method. Modelled marginals and copula are then used to develop a fully Bayesian, time-varying joint return period concept for the estimation of concurrent risk. Here we argue that climate change has increased the chance of concurrent droughts and heatwaves over decades in California. It is also demonstrated that a time-varying multivariate perspective should be incorporated to assess realistic concurrent risk of the extremes for water resources planning and management in a changing climate in this area. The proposed generalized methodology can be applied for other stochastic nature-changing compound climate extremes that are under the influence of climate change.

Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

Changing currents: a strategy for understanding and predicting the changing ocean circulation.

PubMed

Bryden, Harry L; Robinson, Carol; Griffiths, Gwyn

2012-12-13

Within the context of UK marine science, we project a strategy for ocean circulation research over the next 20 years. We recommend a focus on three types of research: (i) sustained observations of the varying and evolving ocean circulation, (ii) careful analysis and interpretation of the observed climate changes for comparison with climate model projections, and (iii) the design and execution of focused field experiments to understand ocean processes that are not resolved in coupled climate models so as to be able to embed these processes realistically in the models. Within UK-sustained observations, we emphasize smart, cost-effective design of the observational network to extract maximum information from limited field resources. We encourage the incorporation of new sensors and new energy sources within the operational environment of UK-sustained observational programmes to bridge the gap that normally separates laboratory prototype from operational instrument. For interpreting the climate-change records obtained through a variety of national and international sustained observational programmes, creative and dedicated UK scientists should lead efforts to extract the meaningful signals and patterns of climate change and to interpret them so as to project future changes. For the process studies, individual scientists will need to work together in team environments to combine observational and process modelling results into effective improvements in the coupled climate models that will lead to more accurate climate predictions.

The AmeriFlux Data Activity and Data System: An Evolving Collection of Data Management Techniques, Tools, Products and Services

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boden, Thomas A; Krassovski, Misha B; Yang, Bai

2013-01-01

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), USA has provided scientific data management support for the U.S. Department of Energy and international climate change science since 1982. Over this period, climate change science has expanded from research focusing on basic understanding of geochemical cycles, particularly the carbon cycle, to integrated research addressing climate change impacts, vulnerability, adaptation, and mitigation. Interests in climate change data and information worldwide have grown remarkably and, as a result, so have demands and expectations for CDIAC s data systems. To meet the growing demands, CDIAC s strategy has beenmore » to design flexible data systems using proven technologies blended with new, evolving technologies and standards. CDIAC development teams are multidisciplinary and include computer science and information technology expertise, but also scientific expertise necessary to address data quality and documentation issues and to identify data products and system capabilities needed by climate change scientists. CDIAC has learned there is rarely a single commercial tool or product readily available to satisfy long-term scientific data system requirements (i.e., one size does not fit all and the breadth and diversity of environmental data are often too complex for easy use with commercial products) and typically deploys a variety of tools and data products in an effort to provide credible data freely to users worldwide. Like many scientific data management applications, CDIAC s data systems are highly customized to satisfy specific scientific usage requirements (e.g., developing data products specific for model use) but are also designed to be flexible and interoperable to take advantage of new software engineering techniques, standards (e.g., metadata standards) and tools and to support future Earth system data efforts (e.g., ocean acidification). CDIAC has provided data management support for numerous long-term measurement projects crucial to climate change science. One current example is the AmeriFlux measurement network. AmeriFlux provides continuous measurements from forests, grasslands, wetlands, and croplands in North, Central, and South America and offers important insight about carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. We share our approaches in satisfying the challenges of delivering AmeriFlux data worldwide to benefit others with similar challenges handling climate change data, further heighten awareness and use of an outstanding ecological data resource, and highlight expanded software engineering applications being used for climate change measurement data.« less

Lessons learnt from the Climate Dialogue initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crok, Marcel; Strengers, Bart; Vasileiadou, Eleftheria

2015-04-01

The weblog Climate Dialogue (climatedialogue.org) has been an experimental climate change communication project. It was the result of a motion in the Dutch parliament, which asked the Dutch government "to also involve climate sceptics in future studies on climate change". Climate Dialogue was set up by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL), and Dutch science journalist Marcel Crok. It operated for slightly more than two years (From November 2012 till December 2014). Around 20 climate scientists from all over the world, many of them leading in their respective fields, participated in six dialogues. Climate Dialogue was a moderated blog on controversial climate science topics introducing a combination of several novel elements: a) bringing together scientists with widely separated viewpoints b) strict moderation of the discussion and c) compilation of executive and extended summaries of the discussions that were approved by the invited scientists. In our talk, we will discuss the operation and results of the Climate Dialogue project, focusing more explicitly on the lessons learnt with respect to online climate change communication addressing the question: "To what extent can online climate change communication bring together climate scientists with widely separated viewpoints, and what would be the advantage of such communication practice?" We identify how Climate Dialogue was received and perceived by the participating scientists, but also by different scientific and online communities. Finally, we present our ideas on how Climate Dialogue could evolve in a novel way of contributing to (climate) science and what steps would be necessary and/or beneficial for such a platform to survive and succeed.

Climate change and occurrence of diarrheal diseases: evolving facts from Nepal.

PubMed

Bhandari, G P; Gurung, S; Dhimal, M; Bhusal, C L

2012-09-01

Climate change is becoming huge threat to health especially for those from developing countries. Diarrhea as one of the major diseases linked with changing climate. This study has been carried out to assess the relationship between climatic variables, and malaria and to find out the range of non-climatic factors that can confound the relationship of climate change and human health. It is a Retrospective study where data of past ten years relating to climate and disease (diarrhea) variable were analyzed. The study conducted trend analysis based on correlation. The climate related data were obtained from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. Time Series analysis was also being conducted. The trend of number of yearly cases of diarrhea has been increasing from 1998 to 2001 after which the cases remain constant till 2006.The climate types in Jhapa vary from humid to per-humid based on the moisture index and Mega-thermal based on thermal efficiency. The mean annual temperature is increasing at an average of 0.04 °C/year with maximum temperature increasing faster than the minimum temperature. The annual total rainfall of Jhapa is decreasing at an average rate of -7.1 mm/year. Statistically significant correlation between diarrheal cases occurrence and temperature and rainfall has been observed. However, climate variables were not the significant predictors of diarrheal occurrence. The association among climate variables and diarrheal disease occurrence cannot be neglected which has been showed by this study. Further prospective longitudinal study adjusting influence of non-climatic factors is recommended.

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research

PubMed Central

Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts. PMID:29232695

Integrative assessment of climate change for fast-growing urban areas: Measurement and recommendations for future research.

PubMed

Scheuer, Sebastian; Haase, Dagmar; Volk, Martin

2017-01-01

Over the 20th century, urbanization has substantially shaped the surface of Earth. With population rapidly shifting from rural locations towards the cities, urban areas have dramatically expanded on a global scale and represent crystallization points of social, cultural and economic assets and activities. This trend is estimated to persist for the next decades, and particularly the developing countries are expected to face rapid urban growth. The management of this growth will require good governance strategies and planning. By threatening the livelihoods, assets and health as foundations of human activities, another major global change contributor, climate change, became an equally important concern of stakeholders. Based on the climate trends observed over the 20th century, and a spatially explicit model of urbanization, this paper investigates the impacts of climate change in relation to different stages of development of urban areas, thus evolving a more integrated perspective on both processes. As a result, an integrative measure of climate change trends and impacts is proposed and estimated for urban areas worldwide. We show that those areas facing major urban growth are to a large extent also hotspots of climate change. Since most of these hotspots are located in the Global South, we emphasize the need for stakeholders to co-manage both drivers of global change. The presented integrative perspective is seen as a starting point to foster such co-management, and furthermore as a means to facilitate communication and knowledge exchange on climate change impacts.

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Sites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Blohm, Andrew; Delgado, Alison

2016-02-01

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Departments of Energy and Defense. The paper provides a framework of steps for climate vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. Inmore » a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change.« less

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

2015-10-01

The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

How Will the San Francisco Bay-Delta Ecosystem Respond to Climate Change and Continued Population Growth?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cloern, J.

2008-12-01

Programs to ensure sustainability of coastal ecosystems and the biological diversity they harbor require ecological forecasting to assess habitat transformations from the coupled effects of climate change and human population growth. A multidisciplinary modeling project (CASCaDE) was launched in 2007 to develop 21st-century visions of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta and San Francisco Bay under four scenarios of climate change and increasing demand for California's water resource. The process begins with downscaled projections of daily weather from GCM's and routes these to a watershed model that computes runoff and an operations model that computes inflows to the Bay-Delta. Hydrologic and climatic outputs, including sea level rise, drive models of tidal hydrodynamics-salinity-temperature in the Delta, sediment inputs and evolving geomorphology of San Francisco Bay. These projected habitat changes are being used to address priority questions asked by resource managers: How will changes in seasonal streamflow, salinity and water temperature, frequency of extreme weather and hydrologic events, and geomorphology influence the sustainability of native species that depend upon the Bay-Delta and the ecosystem services it provides?

Climate change matters.

PubMed

Macpherson, Cheryl Cox

2014-04-01

One manifestation of climate change is the increasingly severe extreme weather that causes injury, illness and death through heat stress, air pollution, infectious disease and other means. Leading health organisations around the world are responding to the related water and food shortages and volatility of energy and agriculture prices that threaten health and health economics. Environmental and climate ethics highlight the associated challenges to human rights and distributive justice but rarely address health or encompass bioethical methods or analyses. Public health ethics and its broader umbrella, bioethics, remain relatively silent on climate change. Meanwhile global population growth creates more people who aspire to Western lifestyles and unrestrained socioeconomic growth. Fulfilling these aspirations generates more emissions; worsens climate change; and undermines virtues and values that engender appreciation of, and protections for, natural resources. Greater understanding of how virtues and values are evolving in different contexts, and the associated consequences, might nudge the individual and collective priorities that inform public policy toward embracing stewardship and responsibility for environmental resources necessary to health. Instead of neglecting climate change and related policy, public health ethics and bioethics should explore these issues; bring transparency to the tradeoffs that permit emissions to continue at current rates; and offer deeper understanding about what is at stake and what it means to live a good life in today's world.

Characterizing the evolution of climate networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tupikina, L.; Rehfeld, K.; Molkenthin, N.; Stolbova, V.; Marwan, N.; Kurths, J.

2014-06-01

Complex network theory has been successfully applied to understand the structural and functional topology of many dynamical systems from nature, society and technology. Many properties of these systems change over time, and, consequently, networks reconstructed from them will, too. However, although static and temporally changing networks have been studied extensively, methods to quantify their robustness as they evolve in time are lacking. In this paper we develop a theory to investigate how networks are changing within time based on the quantitative analysis of dissimilarities in the network structure. Our main result is the common component evolution function (CCEF) which characterizes network development over time. To test our approach we apply it to several model systems, Erdős-Rényi networks, analytically derived flow-based networks, and transient simulations from the START model for which we control the change of single parameters over time. Then we construct annual climate networks from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the Asian monsoon domain for the time period of 1970-2011 CE and use the CCEF to characterize the temporal evolution in this region. While this real-world CCEF displays a high degree of network persistence over large time lags, there are distinct time periods when common links break down. This phasing of these events coincides with years of strong El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomena, confirming previous studies. The proposed method can be applied for any type of evolving network where the link but not the node set is changing, and may be particularly useful to characterize nonstationary evolving systems using complex networks.

A Review of Frameworks for Developing Environmental Health Indicators for Climate Change and Health

PubMed Central

Hambling, Tammy; Weinstein, Philip; Slaney, David

2011-01-01

The role climate change may play in altering human health, particularly in the emergence and spread of diseases, is an evolving area of research. It is important to understand this relationship because it will compound the already significant burden of diseases on national economies and public health. Authorities need to be able to assess, anticipate, and monitor human health vulnerability to climate change, in order to plan for, or implement action to avoid these eventualities. Environmental health indicators (EHIs) provide a tool to assess, monitor, and quantify human health vulnerability, to aid in the design and targeting of interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. Our aim was to identify the most suitable framework for developing EHIs to measure and monitor the impacts of climate change on human health and inform the development of interventions. Using published literature we reviewed the attributes of 11 frameworks. We identified the Driving force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) framework as the most suitable one for developing EHIs for climate change and health. We propose the use of EHIs as a valuable tool to assess, quantify, and monitor human health vulnerability, design and target interventions, and measure the effectiveness of climate change adaptation and mitigation activities. In this paper, we lay the groundwork for the future development of EHIs as a multidisciplinary approach to link existing environmental and epidemiological data and networks. Analysis of such data will contribute to an enhanced understanding of the relationship between climate change and human health. PMID:21845162

Practical (?) considerations for implementing assisted migration strategies for trees in North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKenney, D.; Pedlar, J.

2011-12-01

Climate is one of the major influences on forests and much effort has gone into projecting the impacts of rapid climate change on forest distribution and productivity. Such efforts are premised on the notion that the current generation of Global Climate Models (GCMs) provide reasonably accurate representations of future climate. But what is the appropriate level of faith to put in these projections when making relatively fine-scale resource management decisions such as the movement of plant genetic material? In this talk we review recent outcomes of climate envelope models for North American tree species that suggest optimal climate regimes could move on average ~700km within the next 100 years. Newer generation GCMs seem to confirm these results but much uncertainty remains for practical decision-making. Despite these uncertainties, assisted migration has been suggested as a climate change adaptation tool wherein populations of trees are moved up to a few hundred kilometers north (or a few hundred meters upslope) to keep pace with the anticipated changes in optimal climate regimes. A continent-wide web based tool (SEEDWHERE) is presented, which assists in identifying appropriate translocation distances for assisted migration initiatives. We finish with some suggestions for future work on the topic of forest regeneration decisions under an evolving and uncertain future climate.

For Me It Was When I Saw a Simple Chart: Former Climate Contrarians Recount What Changed Their Minds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirk, K. B.

2017-12-01

Efforts to advance climate policy in the US have been hindered by a sector of the public that is reluctant to accept the science of anthropogenic climate change. Climate educators, advocates, and policymakers seek to resolve this roadblock through educational efforts and strategic messaging, while social science research strives to understand the causes of resistance on climate change. A discussion on the social media platform, AskReddit, offered a surprising source of insight when a tantalizing question was posed, "Former climate deniers, what changed your mind?" Responses to the query offered a rare glimpse into the process of how people switched camps, outgrew their parents' values, had transformative experiences, or were worn down by mounting scientific evidence. The posts contained 66 examples of people who were initially uncertain or dismissive of climate change, but came to accept the mainstream science. The commenters provided insightful narratives describing the origins of their skeptical beliefs, the rationales for their changing opinions, and the events that caused them to reverse course. Analysis of the comments revealed the primary reasons that influenced people to change their minds. Those were: science and evidence (cited as a factor in 47% of the comments); stewardship for the Earth and concerns about pollution (29%); unusual weather events (21%); and the untrustworthiness of the messengers who claim that climate change is false (17%). Note that several commenters pointed to more than one factor that contributed to their evolving views. While neither the setting nor the sample size allow a robust scientific analysis, these anecdotal accounts offer useful insights on a vexing problem. Learning about the circumstances that lead people to update their thinking can help us improve efforts to communicate the science and policy around climate change. This work is the topic of an article at Yale Climate Connections, https://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2017/04/changing-minds-on-a-changing-climate/.

A progressively wetter climate in southern East Africa over the past 1.3 million years.

PubMed

Johnson, T C; Werne, J P; Brown, E T; Abbott, A; Berke, M; Steinman, B A; Halbur, J; Contreras, S; Grosshuesch, S; Deino, A; Scholz, C A; Lyons, R P; Schouten, S; Damsté, J S Sinninghe

2016-09-08

African climate is generally considered to have evolved towards progressively drier conditions over the past few million years, with increased variability as glacial-interglacial change intensified worldwide. Palaeoclimate records derived mainly from northern Africa exhibit a 100,000-year (eccentricity) cycle overprinted on a pronounced 20,000-year (precession) beat, driven by orbital forcing of summer insolation, global ice volume and long-lived atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here we present a 1.3-million-year-long climate history from the Lake Malawi basin (10°-14° S in eastern Africa), which displays strong 100,000-year (eccentricity) cycles of temperature and rainfall following the Mid-Pleistocene Transition around 900,000 years ago. Interglacial periods were relatively warm and moist, while ice ages were cool and dry. The Malawi record shows limited evidence for precessional variability, which we attribute to the opposing effects of austral summer insolation and the temporal/spatial pattern of sea surface temperature in the Indian Ocean. The temperature history of the Malawi basin, at least for the past 500,000 years, strongly resembles past changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and terrigenous dust flux in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but not in global ice volume. Climate in this sector of eastern Africa (unlike northern Africa) evolved from a predominantly arid environment with high-frequency variability to generally wetter conditions with more prolonged wet and dry intervals.

Why is it important to study malaria epidemiology in India?

PubMed

Singh, Vineeta; Mishra, Neelima; Awasthi, Gauri; Dash, Aditya P; Das, Aparup

2009-10-01

Malaria is a major vector-borne disease in India. Based on vast geographic areas with associated topographic and climatic diversity, the variable malaria epidemiology in India is associated with high parasite genetic diversity and rapidly evolving drug resistance, differential distribution of vector species and emerging insecticide resistance and underlying human genetic diversity and past evolutionary histories. Further, changing climatic patterns have possibly changed malaria epidemiology to a great extent. The outcome of these changes is an increased incidence of Plasmodium falciparum over the P. vivax malaria in recent years. Accordingly, the drug and insecticide application policy in India has changed too. The above facts and associated rapid shifting trend of malaria epidemiology makes India a hot-spot for malaria research.

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO 2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO 2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surfacemore » air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO 2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO 2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.« less

Multicentury changes in ocean and land contributions to the climate-carbon feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Moore, J. K.; Hoffman, F. M.; Mahowald, N. M.; Doney, S. C.

2015-06-01

Improved constraints on carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (v1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 and its extension. In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical processes experienced the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. Each simulation had a different degree of radiative coupling for CO2 and other greenhouse gases and aerosols, enabling diagnosis of feedbacks. In a fully coupled simulation, global mean surface air temperature increased by 9.3 K from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4 K of this warming occurring after 2100. Excluding CO2, warming from other greenhouse gases and aerosols was 1.6 K by 2300, near a 2 K target needed to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Ocean contributions to the climate-carbon feedback increased considerably over time and exceeded contributions from land after 2100. The sensitivity of ocean carbon to climate change was found to be proportional to changes in ocean heat content, as a consequence of this heat modifying transport pathways for anthropogenic CO2 inflow and solubility of dissolved inorganic carbon. By 2300, climate change reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change reducing stocks by 232 Pg C. Regional influence of climate change on carbon stocks was largest in the North Atlantic Ocean and tropical forests of South America. Our analysis suggests that after 2100, oceans may become as important as terrestrial ecosystems in regulating the magnitude of the climate-carbon feedback.

Bring Hidden Hazards to the Publics Attention, Understanding, and Informed Decision by Coordinating Federal Education Initiatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niepold, F.; Karsten, J. L.; Wei, M.; Jadin, J.

2010-12-01

In the 2010 National Research Council’s America’s Climate Choices’ report on Informing Effective Decisions and Actions Related to Climate Change concluded; “Education and communication are among the most powerful tools the nation has to bring hidden hazards to public attention, understanding, and action.” They conclude that the “current and future students, the broader public, and policymakers need to understand the causes, consequences, and potential solutions to climate change, develop scientific thinking and problem-solving skills, and improve their ability to make informed decisions.” The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) works to integrate the climate related activities of these different agencies, with oversight from the Office of Science and Technology Policy and other White House offices. USGCRP’s focus is now on evaluating optimal strategies for addressing climate change risks, improving coordination among the Federal agencies, engaging stakeholders (including national policy leaders and local resource managers) on the research results to all and improving public understanding and decision-making related to global change. Implicit to these activities is the need to educate the public about the science of climate change and its consequences, as well as coordinate Federal investments related to climate change education. In a broader sense, the implementation of the proposed Interagency Taskforce on Climate Change Communication and Education will serve the evolving USGCRP mandates around cross-cutting, thematic elements, as recommended by the National Research Council (NRC, 2009) and the U.S. Climate Change Science Program Revised Research Plan: An update to the 2003 Strategic Plan (USGCRP, 2008), to help the Federal government “capitalize on its investments and aid in the development of increased climate literacy for the Nation.” This session will update the participants on the work to date and the near term coordinated plans of the proposed Interagency Taskforce on Climate Change Communication and Education.

The evolving local social contract for managing climate and disaster risk in Vietnam.

PubMed

Christoplos, Ian; Ngoan, Le Duc; Sen, Le Thi Hoa; Huong, Nguyen Thi Thanh; Lindegaard, Lily Salloum

2017-07-01

How do disasters shape local government legitimacy in relation to managing climate- and disaster-related risks? This paper looks at how local authorities in Central Vietnam perceive their social contract for risk reduction, including the partial merging of responsibilities for disaster risk management with new plans for and investments in climate change adaptation and broader socioeconomic development. The findings indicate that extreme floods and storms constitute critical junctures that stimulate genuine institutional change. Local officials are proud of their strengthened role in disaster response and they are eager to boost investment in infrastructure. They have struggled to reinforce their legitimacy among their constituents, but given the shifting roles of the state, private sector, and civil society, and the undiminished emphasis on high-risk development models, their responsibilities for responding to emerging climate change scenarios are increasingly nebulous. The past basis for legitimacy is no longer valid, but tomorrow's social contract is not yet defined. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

Investigating the Influence of Climate Changes on Rodent Communities at a Regional-Scale (MIS 1-3, Southwestern France)

PubMed Central

Royer, Aurélien; Montuire, Sophie; Legendre, Serge; Discamps, Emmanuel; Jeannet, Marcel; Lécuyer, Christophe

2016-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems have continuously evolved throughout the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene, deeply affected by both progressive environmental and climatic modifications, as well as by abrupt and large climatic changes such as the Heinrich or Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Yet, the impacts of these different events on terrestrial mammalian communities are poorly known, as is the role played by potential refugia on geographical species distributions. This study examines community changes in rodents of southwestern France between 50 and 10 ky BP by integrating 94 dated faunal assemblages coming from 37 archaeological sites. This work reveals that faunal distributions were modified in response to abrupt and brief climatic events, such as Heinrich events, without actually modifying the rodent community on a regional scale. However, the succession of events which operated between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene gradually led to establishing a new rodent community at the regional scale, with intermediate communities occurring between the Bølling and the Allerød. PMID:26789523

Globalization to amplify economic climate losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, C.; Wenz, L.; Levermann, A.

2015-12-01

Economic welfare under enhanced anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated future warming poses a major challenge for a society with an evolving globally connected economy. Unabated climate change will impact economic output for example through heat-stress-related reductions in productivity. Since meteorologically-induced production reductions can propagate along supply chains, structural changes in the economic network may influence climate-related losses. The role of the economic network evolution for climate impacts has been neither quantified nor qualitatively understood. Here we show that since the beginning of the 21st century the structural change of the global supply network has been such that an increase of spillover losses due to unanticipated climatic events has to be expected. We quantify primary, secondary and higher-order losses from reduced labor productivity under past and present economic and climatic conditions and find that indirect losses are significant and increase with rising temperatures. The connectivity of the economic network has increased in such a way as to foster the propagation of production loss. This supply chain connectivity robustly exhibits the characteristic distribution of self-organized criticality which has been shifted towards higher values since 2001. Losses due to this structural evolution dominated over the effect of comparably weak climatic changes during this decade. Our finding suggests that the current form of globalization may amplify losses due to climatic extremes and thus necessitate structural adaptation that requires more foresight than presently prevalent.

Specialization in Plant-Hummingbird Networks Is Associated with Species Richness, Contemporary Precipitation and Quaternary Climate-Change Velocity

PubMed Central

Dalsgaard, Bo; Magård, Else; Fjeldså, Jon; Martín González, Ana M.; Rahbek, Carsten; Olesen, Jens M.; Ollerton, Jeff; Alarcón, Ruben; Cardoso Araujo, Andrea; Cotton, Peter A.; Lara, Carlos; Machado, Caio Graco; Sazima, Ivan; Sazima, Marlies; Timmermann, Allan; Watts, Stella; Sandel, Brody; Sutherland, William J.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2011-01-01

Large-scale geographical patterns of biotic specialization and the underlying drivers are poorly understood, but it is widely believed that climate plays an important role in determining specialization. As climate-driven range dynamics should diminish local adaptations and favor generalization, one hypothesis is that contemporary biotic specialization is determined by the degree of past climatic instability, primarily Quaternary climate-change velocity. Other prominent hypotheses predict that either contemporary climate or species richness affect biotic specialization. To gain insight into geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization and its drivers, we use network analysis to determine the degree of specialization in plant-hummingbird mutualistic networks sampled at 31 localities, spanning a wide range of climate regimes across the Americas. We found greater biotic specialization at lower latitudes, with latitude explaining 20–22% of the spatial variation in plant-hummingbird specialization. Potential drivers of specialization - contemporary climate, Quaternary climate-change velocity, and species richness - had superior explanatory power, together explaining 53–64% of the variation in specialization. Notably, our data provides empirical evidence for the hypothesized roles of species richness, contemporary precipitation and Quaternary climate-change velocity as key predictors of biotic specialization, whereas contemporary temperature and seasonality seem unimportant in determining specialization. These results suggest that both ecological and evolutionary processes at Quaternary time scales can be important in driving large-scale geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization, at least for co-evolved systems such as plant-hummingbird networks. PMID:21998716

Is This Global Warming? Communicating the Intangibles of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Warner, L.; Henson, R.

2004-05-01

Unlike weather, which is immediate, tangible, and relevant on a daily basis, climate change is long-term, slow to evolve, and often difficult to relate to the public's daily concerns. By explaining global-change research to wide and diverse audiences through a variety of vehicles, including publications, exhibits, Web sites, and television B-roll, UCAR has gained experience and perspective on the challenges involved. This talk will explore some of the lessons learned and some of the key difficulties that face global-change communicators, including: --The lack of definitive findings on regional effects of global change -- The long time frame in which global change plays out, versus the short attention span of media, the public, and policy makers --The use of weather events as news pegs (they pique interest, but they may not be good exemplars of global change and are difficult to relate directly to changes in greenhouse-gas emissions) --The perils of the traditional journalistic technique of point-counterpoint in discussing climate change --The presence of strong personal/political convictions among various interest groups and how these affect the message(s) conveyed

Large storage operations under climate change: expanding uncertainties and evolving tradeoffs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, Matteo; Anghileri, Daniela; Castelletti, Andrea; Vu, Phuong Nam; Soncini-Sessa, Rodolfo

2016-03-01

In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China-Laos-Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to +5% in hydropower production, +35 to +520% in flood damages, and +15 to +160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US year-1 at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.

Páramo is the world's fastest evolving and coolest biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

Madriñán, Santiago; Cortés, Andrés J.; Richardson, James E.

2013-01-01

Understanding the processes that cause speciation is a key aim of evolutionary biology. Lineages or biomes that exhibit recent and rapid diversification are ideal model systems for determining these processes. Species rich biomes reported to be of relatively recent origin, i.e., since the beginning of the Miocene, include Mediterranean ecosystems such as the California Floristic Province, oceanic islands such as the Hawaiian archipelago and the Neotropical high elevation ecosystem of the Páramos. Páramos constitute grasslands above the forest tree-line (at elevations of c. 2800–4700 m) with high species endemism. Organisms that occupy this ecosystem are a likely product of unique adaptations to an extreme environment that evolved during the last three to five million years when the Andes reached an altitude that was capable of sustaining this type of vegetation. We compared net diversification rates of lineages in fast evolving biomes using 73 dated molecular phylogenies. Based on our sample, we demonstrate that average net diversification rates of Páramo plant lineages are faster than those of other reportedly fast evolving hotspots and that the faster evolving lineages are more likely to be found in Páramos than the other hotspots. Páramos therefore represent the ideal model system for studying diversification processes. Most of the speciation events that we observed in the Páramos (144 out of 177) occurred during the Pleistocene possibly due to the effects of species range contraction and expansion that may have resulted from the well-documented climatic changes during that period. Understanding these effects will assist with efforts to determine how future climatic changes will impact plant populations. PMID:24130570

Páramo is the world's fastest evolving and coolest biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Madriñán, Santiago; Cortés, Andrés J; Richardson, James E

2013-10-09

Understanding the processes that cause speciation is a key aim of evolutionary biology. Lineages or biomes that exhibit recent and rapid diversification are ideal model systems for determining these processes. Species rich biomes reported to be of relatively recent origin, i.e., since the beginning of the Miocene, include Mediterranean ecosystems such as the California Floristic Province, oceanic islands such as the Hawaiian archipelago and the Neotropical high elevation ecosystem of the Páramos. Páramos constitute grasslands above the forest tree-line (at elevations of c. 2800-4700 m) with high species endemism. Organisms that occupy this ecosystem are a likely product of unique adaptations to an extreme environment that evolved during the last three to five million years when the Andes reached an altitude that was capable of sustaining this type of vegetation. We compared net diversification rates of lineages in fast evolving biomes using 73 dated molecular phylogenies. Based on our sample, we demonstrate that average net diversification rates of Páramo plant lineages are faster than those of other reportedly fast evolving hotspots and that the faster evolving lineages are more likely to be found in Páramos than the other hotspots. Páramos therefore represent the ideal model system for studying diversification processes. Most of the speciation events that we observed in the Páramos (144 out of 177) occurred during the Pleistocene possibly due to the effects of species range contraction and expansion that may have resulted from the well-documented climatic changes during that period. Understanding these effects will assist with efforts to determine how future climatic changes will impact plant populations.

Preparing the Way for New Policy Regarding Adaptation of US Electricity Infrastructure to Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Allen, Melissa R

2013-10-01

The following pages represent the status of policy regarding adaptation of the electric grid to climate change and proposed directions for new policy development. While strides are being made to understand the current climate and to predict hazards it may present to human systems, both the science and the policy remain at present in an analytical state. The policy proposed in this document involves first continued computational modeling of outcomes which will produce a portfolio of options to be considered in light of specific region-related risks. It is proposed that the modeling continue not only until reasonable policy at variousmore » levels of jurisdiction can be derived from its outcome but also on a continuing basis so that as improvements in the understanding of the state and trajectory of climate science along with advancements in technology arise, they can be incorporated into an appropriate and evolving policy.« less

Climate change and evolving human diversity in Europe during the last glacial.

PubMed Central

Gamble, Clive; Davies, William; Pettitt, Paul; Richards, Martin

2004-01-01

A link between climate change and human evolution during the Pleistocene has often been assumed but rarely tested. At the macro-evolutionary level Foley showed for hominids that extinction, rather than speciation, correlates with environmental change as recorded in the deep sea record. Our aim is to examine this finding at a smaller scale and with high-resolution environmental and archaeological archives. Our interest is in changing patterns of human dispersal under shifting Pleistocene climates during the last glacial period in Europe. Selecting this time frame and region allows us to observe how two hominid taxa, Neanderthals and Crô-Magnons, adapted to climatic conditions during oxygen isotope stage 3. These taxa are representative of two hominid adaptive radiations, termed terrestrial and aquatic, which exhibited different habitat preferences but similar tolerances to climatic factors. Their response to changing ecological conditions was predicated upon their ability to extend their societies in space and time. We examine this difference further using a database of all available radiocarbon determinations from western Europe in the late glacial. These data act as proxies for population history, and in particular the expansion and contraction of regional populations as climate changed rapidly. Independent assessment of these processes is obtained from the genetic history of Europeans. The results indicate that climate affects population contraction rather than expansion. We discuss the consequences for genetic and cultural diversity which led to the legacy of the Ice Age: a single hominid species, globally distributed. PMID:15101580

Replacing Coercive Power with Relationship Power

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boldt, Randal W.; Witzel, Melanie; Russell, Chuck; Jones, Van

2007-01-01

A long-established agency for troubled children was following a philosophy based on behavioral control and treatment of pathology. As staff examined their beliefs about the process of change, the climate evolved from enforcing behavior control to empowering youth to develop positive strengths. A charter school was created and new behavior…

Projected dryland cropping system shifts in the Pacific Northwest in response to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Agriculture in the dryland region of the Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW, including northern Idaho, eastern Washington and northern Oregon) is typically characterized based on annual rainfall and associated distribution of cropping systems that have evolved in response to biophysical and socio-econom...

Using an Integrated Approach to Supporting Climate Change Literacy for Pre-Service Teachers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, H. R.; Mattox, S.; Llerandi-Román, P. A.; Dobson, C.

2014-12-01

Educating future Americans has long been a debate; with the Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS) now being adopted, climate literacy has become a more dominant discussion in both the classroom and in our society where climate education has often been non-existent or dismal at best. With these new education standards climate literacy is now fundamental to science education, this means understanding climate needs to begin with those headed into the classroom with these future Americans. These educators are expected to be skilled and confident in all subject areas, including science, where they might receive less training. To address this challenge, we have focused on an interdisciplinary approach to climate literacy, which is facilitated through cross-cutting concepts in both Earth and life sciences and parallels NGSS standards. We used the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication to gauge our student's strengths and weaknesses and compare them to the general public's understanding of climate change and complex Earth processes, such as beliefs about climate change, understanding the greenhouse effect, weather versus climate, climate change past and present, impacts and solutions. After a semester of this interdisciplinary course our students felt 95% confident that they are informed about global climate change as compared to 62% of Americans that were surveyed. Our students could define and describe greenhouse effect and 82% of them could classify greenhouse gases as compared to 66% and 45% of Americans respectively. While these non-science, education students were generally more knowledgeable about climate change, the areas where they did not significantly outperform the general public allowed us to refocus our course to aid them in understanding this complex issue where our hopes are that they will be prepared to teach science in their future classroom which will allow their students to be competitive in today's rapidly evolving global economy.

Evolutionary responses to climate change in parasitic systems.

PubMed

Chaianunporn, Thotsapol; Hovestadt, Thomas

2015-08-01

Species may respond to climate change in many ecological and evolutionary ways. In this simulation study, we focus on the concurrent evolution of three traits in response to climate change, namely dispersal probability, temperature tolerance (or niche width), and temperature preference (optimal habitat). More specifically, we consider evolutionary responses in host species involved in different types of interaction, that is parasitism or commensalism, and for low or high costs of a temperature tolerance-fertility trade-off (cost of generalization). We find that host species potentially evolve all three traits simultaneously in response to increasing temperature but that the evolutionary response interacts and may be compensatory depending on the conditions. The evolutionary adjustment of temperature preference is slower in the parasitism than in commensalism scenario. Parasitism, in turn, selects for higher temperature tolerance and increased dispersal. High costs for temperature tolerance (i.e. generalization) restrict evolution of tolerance and thus lead to a faster response in temperature preference than that observed under low costs. These results emphasize the possible role of biotic interactions and the importance of 'multidimensional' evolutionary responses to climate change. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using conceptual maps to assess students' climate change understanding and misconceptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gautier, C.

2011-12-01

The complex and interdisciplinary nature of climate change science poses special challenges for educators in helping students understand the climate system, and how it is evolving under natural and anthropogenic forcing. Students and citizens alike have existing mental models that may limit their perception and processing of the multiple relationships between processes (e.g., feedback) that arise in global change science, and prevent adoption of complex scientific concepts. Their prior knowledge base serves as the scaffold for all future learning and grasping its range and limitations serves as an important basis upon which to anchor instruction. Different instructional strategies can be adopted to help students understand the inherently interdisciplinary topic of global climate change, its interwoven human and natural causes, and the connections it has with society through a complex range of political, social, technological and economic factors. One assessment method for students' understanding of global climate change with its many uncertainties, whether associated with the workings of the climate system or with respect to social, cultural and economic processes that mediate human responses to changes within the system, is through the use of conceptual maps. When well designed, they offer a representation of students' mental model prior and post instruction. We will present two conceptual mapping activities used in the classroom to assess students' knowledge and understanding about global climate change and uncover misconceptions. For the first one, concept maps will be used to demonstrate evidence of learning and conceptual change, while for the second we will show how conceptual maps can provide information about gaps in knowledge and misconceptions students have about the topic.

Grasstops and Grassroots Approaches to Building Community Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LeBeau, A.; Bader, D.

2017-12-01

Climate change and extreme weather events pose complex risks to cities all over the world, impacting not only the built environment, but also social infrastructure. Because urban communities are culturally and socioeconomically diverse, as well as systemically complicated, climate change and extreme weather events will impact people differently even within a single city—not only because of where they live, but also because of who they are. The City of Long Beach, California, is in its very early stages of understanding its vulnerabilities. However, city leaders and community partners including the Aquarium of the Pacific are committed to creating a model climate resilient city. Climate change risks most relevant to Long Beach include drought (and freshwater shortages), extreme heat, sea level rise, and poor air quality. Over the past 18 months, the Aquarium of the Pacific has been testing elements of a broad-reaching education strategy to reach community stakeholders. Two multi-level approaches are designed to build awareness and momentum for climate resilience. A grassroots approach, called RESILIENT LB, focuses on an interactive outreach booth that travels to community events. The booth is staffed by educators with specific training on climate communication. Facilitated conversations help people identify what they love about Long Beach and immediate impacts that climate change will have on the things they value. A second, complimentary approach involves long-term community engagement through a grasstops-to-grassroots approach. Aquarium educators have been facilitating different climate resilience workshops for leaders from a variety of groups across Long Beach. These workshops give leaders the chance to reflect on how their communities may be impacted by climate change, and highlight adaptation (rather than mitigation) to climate change. In this session, we will share how these programs have evolved, lessons learned, and areas of growth.

A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments.

PubMed

Nowack, Peer J; Abraham, N Luke; Maycock, Amanda C; Braesicke, Peter; Gregory, Jonathan M; Joshi, Manoj M; Osprey, Annette; Pyle, John A

2015-01-01

State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes which are simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever 1 . Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations 1,2 . Here we present evidence that how stratospheric ozone is represented in climate models can have a first order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO 2 forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies 1,2 in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are neither consistent with the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor with the associated atmospheric circulation feedbacks 3-5 .

Interactive Ice Sheet Flowline Model for High School and College Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stearns, L. A.; Rezvanbehbahani, S.; Shankar, S.

2017-12-01

Teaching about climate and climate change is conceptually challenging. While teaching tools and lesson plans are rapidly evolving to help teachers and students improve their understanding of climate processes, there are very few tools targeting ice sheet and glacier dynamics. We have built an interactive ice sheet model that allows students to explore how Antarctic glaciers respond to different climate perturbations. Interactive models offer advantages that are hard to obtain in traditional classroom settings; users can systematically investigate hypothetical situations, explore the effects of modifying systems, and repeatedly observe how systems interrelate. As a result, this project provides a much-needed bridge between the data and models used by the scientific community and students in high school and college. We target our instructional and assessment activities to three high school and college students with the overall aim of increasing understanding of ice sheet dynamics and the different ways that ice sheets are impacted by climate change, while also improving their fundamental math skills.

The Benefits of Past and Current Regional Hydroclimate Projects to the Third Pole Environment (TPE) Water and Energy Exchanges Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benedict, Sam; van Oevelen, Peter

2014-05-01

To improve understanding of the various processes at work on spatial and temporal scales from regional to global the Regional Hydroclimate Projects (RHP's) are established as part of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX)Project to link the regional observations and process understanding to the global scale. This is done through exchange of observations, data, modeling, transferability studies etc. In this presentation the series of RHP's that were underway over North and South America, Europe and Asia continuously from the early 1990's up to the present will be examined, the reasons they were established, how they evolved and how they are evolving or are likely to evolve in the future, with an emphasis on where they can and should benefit similar work proposed for the TPE. The results will be presented in the context of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenge related to the development of a water strategy that addresses the issue of past and future changes in Water, in general, and the GEWEX science question on global water resource systems, in particular. This material will address issues associated with how changes in land surface and hydrology influence past and future changes in water availability and security, how new observations lead to improvements in water management and how models become better in global and regional climate predictions and projections of precipitation and how these outcomes relate to the TPE Water and Energy Exchanges Studies.

Climate change: could it help develop 'adaptive expertise'?

PubMed

Bell, Erica; Horton, Graeme; Blashki, Grant; Seidel, Bastian M

2012-05-01

Preparing health practitioners to respond to the rising burden of disease from climate change is emerging as a priority in health workforce policy and planning. However, this issue is hardly represented in the medical education research. The rapidly evolving wide range of direct and indirect consequences of climate change will require health professionals to have not only broad content knowledge but also flexibility and responsiveness to diverse regional conditions as part of complex health problem-solving and adaptation. It is known that adaptive experts may not necessarily be quick at solving familiar problems, but they do creatively seek to better solve novel problems. This may be the result of an acquired approach to practice or a pathway that can be fostered by learning environments. It is also known that building adaptive expertise in medical education involves putting students on a learning pathway that requires them to have, first, the motivation to innovatively problem-solve and, second, exposure to diverse content material, meaningfully presented. Including curriculum content on the health effects of climate change could help meet these two conditions for some students at least. A working definition and illustrative competencies for adaptive expertise for climate change, as well as examples of teaching and assessment approaches extrapolated from rural curricula, are provided.

Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change.

PubMed

Ficetola, Gentile Francesco; Colleoni, Emiliano; Renaud, Julien; Scali, Stefano; Padoa-Schioppa, Emilio; Thuiller, Wilfried

2016-06-01

Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring species persistence. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Long History of IAM Comparisons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Steven J.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

2015-04-23

Correspondence to editor: We agree with the editors that the assumptions behind models of all types, including integrated assessment models (IAMs), should be as transparent as possible. The editors were in error, however, when they implied that the IAM community is just “now emulating the efforts of climate researchers by instigating their own model inter-comparison projects (MIPs).” In fact, model comparisons for integrated assessment and climate models followed a remarkably similar trajectory. Early General Circulation Model (GCM) comparison efforts, evolved to the first Atmospheric Model Inter-comparison Project (AMIP), which was initiated in the early 1990s. Atmospheric models evolved to coupledmore » atmosphere-ocean models (AOGCMs) and results from the first Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project (CMIP1) become available about a decade later. Results of first energy model comparison exercise, conducted under the auspices of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum, were published in 1977. A summary of the first comparison focused on climate change was published in 1993. As energy models were coupled to simple economic and climate models to form IAMs, the first comparison exercise for IAMs (EMF-14) was initiated in 1994, and IAM comparison exercises have been on-going since this time.« less

Predicting climate effects on Pacific sardine

PubMed Central

Deyle, Ethan R.; Fogarty, Michael; Hsieh, Chih-hao; Kaufman, Les; MacCall, Alec D.; Munch, Stephan B.; Perretti, Charles T.; Ye, Hao; Sugihara, George

2013-01-01

For many marine species and habitats, climate change and overfishing present a double threat. To manage marine resources effectively, it is necessary to adapt management to changes in the physical environment. Simple relationships between environmental conditions and fish abundance have long been used in both fisheries and fishery management. In many cases, however, physical, biological, and human variables feed back on each other. For these systems, associations between variables can change as the system evolves in time. This can obscure relationships between population dynamics and environmental variability, undermining our ability to forecast changes in populations tied to physical processes. Here we present a methodology for identifying physical forcing variables based on nonlinear forecasting and show how the method provides a predictive understanding of the influence of physical forcing on Pacific sardine. PMID:23536299

Mixed precipitation occurrences over southern Québec, Canada, under warmer climate conditions using a regional climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matte, Dominic; Thériault, Julie M.; Laprise, René

2018-05-01

Winter weather events with temperatures near 0°C are often associated with freezing rain. They can have major impacts on the society by causing power outages and disruptions to the transportation networks. Despite the catastrophic consequences of freezing rain, very few studies have investigated how their occurrences could evolve under climate change. This study aims to investigate the change of freezing rain and ice pellets over southern Québec using regional climate modeling at high resolution. The fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model with climate scenario RCP 8.5 at 0.11° grid mesh was used. The precipitation types such as freezing rain, ice pellets or their combination are diagnosed using five methods (Cantin and Bachand, Bourgouin, Ramer, Czys and, Baldwin). The occurrences of the diagnosed precipitation types for the recent past (1980-2009) are found to be comparable to observations. The projections for the future scenario (2070-2099) suggested a general decrease in the occurrences of mixed precipitation over southern Québec from October to April. This is mainly due to a decrease in long-duration events (≥6 h ). Overall, this study contributes to better understand how the distribution of freezing rain and ice pellets might change in the future using high-resolution regional climate model.

Seeking a Role for the Ocean and Ocean Scientists in the Future of International Climate Negotiations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallo, N.; Eddebbar, Y.; Le, J. T.; Netburn, A. N.; Niles, J. O.; Sato, K.; Wilson, S.; Levin, L. A.

2016-02-01

The oceans cover 71% of the world and are essential to the climate regulation of the planet, but they are severely underrepresented in international climate negotiations. While marine ecosystems were mentioned in the preamble to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), they have since been left out of the text of the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Treaty, and ocean-focused events are lacking at UNFCCC meetings. However, marine ecosystems sustain severe impacts from climate change including warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, and these changes have economic implications for ocean-dependent nations including on tourism, fisheries sustainability, shoreline protection, and human livelihood. Ocean scientists from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and members of Ocean Scientists for Informed Policy have partnered with the newly-formed Ocean and Climate Platform to raise ocean issues at the UNFCCC meeting in Paris through both official side event presentations within the meeting venue and offsite events for the public. This study focuses on how the role and recognition of the ocean in the UNFCCC negotiations has evolved from COP19 (2013) to COP21 (2015), what may be expected for the role of the ocean in international climate negotiations beyond the Paris Agreement, and addresses what role ocean scientists can play in this conversation.

Seeking a Role for the Ocean and Ocean Scientists in the Future of International Climate Negotiations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallo, N.; Eddebbar, Y.; Le, J. T.; Netburn, A. N.; Niles, J. O.; Sato, K.; Wilson, S.; Levin, L. A.

2016-12-01

The oceans cover 71% of the world and are essential to the climate regulation of the planet, but they are severely underrepresented in international climate negotiations. While marine ecosystems were mentioned in the preamble to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), they have since been left out of the text of the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Treaty, and ocean-focused events are lacking at UNFCCC meetings. However, marine ecosystems sustain severe impacts from climate change including warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, and these changes have economic implications for ocean-dependent nations including on tourism, fisheries sustainability, shoreline protection, and human livelihood. Ocean scientists from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography and members of Ocean Scientists for Informed Policy have partnered with the newly-formed Ocean and Climate Platform to raise ocean issues at the UNFCCC meeting in Paris through both official side event presentations within the meeting venue and offsite events for the public. This study focuses on how the role and recognition of the ocean in the UNFCCC negotiations has evolved from COP19 (2013) to COP21 (2015), what may be expected for the role of the ocean in international climate negotiations beyond the Paris Agreement, and addresses what role ocean scientists can play in this conversation.

Investigating flow sensitivity of Greenland outlet glaciers using a time-evolving calving model in Elmer FEM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todd, Joe; Christoffersen, Poul

2013-04-01

It is becoming increasingly evident that the marine margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) are highly sensitive to local and regional scale climate change, with significant changes in mass balance occurring on sub-decadal timescales. The majority of this mass loss is hypothesised to have been triggered at the termini of calving glaciers. Recent studies suggest that increased calving rate is being driven through some combination of increased submarine undercutting, increased surface hydrofracturing, and changes in the strength and seasonal duration of sikussak. This project aims to improve understanding of these physical processes, in order to better predict how the GIS will respond to future climate change. Two glaciers in the Uummannaq region, Store Gletscher and Rink Isbræ, have been modelled in 2D using the Finite Element modelling package "Elmer FEM". The model produces a time-evolving solution to the coupled Navier-Stokes/heat equations; this allows the dynamic response of these glaciers to external forcing at their termini to be investigated. Furthermore, the model includes a water-depth calving criterion, and is able to simulate realistic calving events, and the subsequent stress/dynamic response of the glacier. Preliminary results suggest that both sikussak backstress and submarine undercutting may represent significant factors in calving terminus stability.

America's Climate Choices: Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilbanks, T.; Yohe, G.; Mengelt, C.; Casola, J.

2010-12-01

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies that the nation can take to respond to climate change. As part of this suite of activities, this study assessed, this study assessed how the nation can begin to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Much of the nation’s experience to date in managing and protecting its people, resources, and infrastructure is based on the historic record of climate variability during a period of relatively stable climate. Adaptation to climate change calls for a new paradigm - one that considers a range of possible future climate conditions and associated impacts. The Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change report calls for action at all levels of government, NGOs, and the private sector to assess vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change and identify options for adaptation. Current adaptation efforts are hampered by a lack of solid information about the benefits, costs, and effectiveness of various adaptation options, by uncertainty about future climate change impacts at a scale necessary for decision-making, and by a lack of coordination. The report outlines a risk management framework that can be applied to assess vulnerabilities, compare and evaluate potential adaptation options, recognizing that decision makers across the country are likely to pursue a diverse set of adaptation measures. A major research effort is needed to improve knowledge about current and future vulnerabilities, explore new adaptation options, and better inform adaptation decisions. Therefore, the report also emphasizes the need to continually re-assess adaptation decisions as the experience and knowledge regarding effective adaptation evolves. A national adaptation strategy is needed in which the federal government would support and enhance adaptation activities undertaken by state, local, tribal, and private entities; identify and modify policies that might provide incentives for maladaptive behavior; bolster scientific research regarding adaptation; and encourage adaptation on a global scale through national programs with international components.

Communicating Climate Uncertainties: Challenges and Opportunities Related to Spatial Scales, Extreme Events, and the Warming 'Hiatus'

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casola, J. H.; Huber, D.

2013-12-01

Many media, academic, government, and advocacy organizations have achieved sophistication in developing effective messages based on scientific information, and can quickly translate salient aspects of emerging climate research and evolving observations. However, there are several ways in which valid messages can be misconstrued by decision makers, leading them to inaccurate conclusions about the risks associated with climate impacts. Three cases will be discussed: 1) Issues of spatial scale in interpreting climate observations: Local climate observations may contradict summary statements about the effects of climate change on larger regional or global spatial scales. Effectively addressing these differences often requires communicators to understand local and regional climate drivers, and the distinction between a 'signal' associated with climate change and local climate 'noise.' Hydrological statistics in Missouri and California are shown to illustrate this case. 2) Issues of complexity related to extreme events: Climate change is typically invoked following a wide range of damaging meteorological events (e.g., heat waves, landfalling hurricanes, tornadoes), regardless of the strength of the relationship between anthropogenic climate change and the frequency or severity of that type of event. Examples are drawn from media coverage of several recent events, contrasting useful and potentially confusing word choices and frames. 3) Issues revolving around climate sensitivity: The so-called 'pause' or 'hiatus' in global warming has reverberated strongly through political and business discussions of climate change. Addressing the recent slowdown in warming yields an important opportunity to raise climate literacy in these communities. Attempts to use recent observations as a wedge between climate 'believers' and 'deniers' is likely to be counterproductive. Examples are drawn from Congressional testimony and media stories. All three cases illustrate ways that decision makers can arrive at invalid conclusions from a seemingly valid scientific messages. Honest discussion of uncertainties, and recognition of the spatial and time scales associated with decision making, can work to combat this potential confusion.

Testing alternative response designs for training forest disturbance and attribution models

Treesearch

T. Schroeder; G. Moisen; K. Schleeweis

2014-01-01

Understanding and modeling land cover and land use change is evolving into a foundational element of climate, environmental, and sustainability science. Land cover and land use data are core to applications such as carbon accounting, greenhouse gas emissions reporting, biomass and bioenergy assessments, hydrologic function assessments, fire and fuels planning and...

Impact of the eocene on the evolution of Pinus L.

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar

1993-01-01

Pinus evolved in middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere in the middle Mesozoic. By the late Cretaceous pines had spread east and west throughout Laurasia, attaining high diversity in eastern Asia, the eastern United States, and western Europe, but having little representation at high northern latitudes. Changing climates in the early Tertiary...

Social Climate Change: A Sociology of Environmental Philosophy

Treesearch

Robert E. Manning

2003-01-01

Democracy demands that public policy ultimately reflect evolving social thought. However, in the nonmarket realm of public land management, and environmental policy more broadly, where price signals that drive the free-market economy are generally lacking, this requires a concerted effort on the part of social science to measure and monitor societal values and related...

Developing the next generation of forest ecosystem models

Treesearch

Christopher R. Schwalm; Alan R. Ek

2002-01-01

Forest ecology and management are model-rich areas for research. Models are often cast as either empirical or mechanistic. With evolving climate change, hybrid models gain new relevance because of their ability to integrate existing mechanistic knowledge with empiricism based on causal thinking. The utility of hybrid platforms results in the combination of...

The adaptation of polar fishes to climatic changes: Structure, function and phylogeny of haemoglobin.

PubMed

Verde, Cinzia; Giordano, Daniela; di Prisco, Guido

2008-01-01

In the Antarctic, fishes of dominant suborder Notothenioidei have evolved in a unique thermal scenario. Phylogenetically related taxa of the suborder live in a wide range of latitudes, in Antarctic, sub-Antarctic and temperate oceans. Consequently, they offer a remarkable opportunity to study the physiological and biochemical characters gained and, conversely, lost during their evolutionary history. The evolutionary perspective has also been pursued by comparative studies of some features of the heme protein devoted to O(2) transport in fish living in the other polar region, the Arctic. The two polar regions differ by age and isolation. Fish living in each habitat have undergone regional constraints and fit into different evolutionary histories. The aim of this contribution is to survey the current knowledge of molecular structure, functional features, phylogeny and adaptations of the haemoglobins of fish thriving in the Antarctic, sub-Antarctic and Arctic regions (with some excursions in the temperate latitudes), in search of insights into the convergent processes evolved in response to cooling. Current climate change may disturb adaptation, calling for strategies aimed at neutralising threats to biodiversity.

Drought, deluge and declines: the impact of precipitation extremes on amphibians in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walls, Susan C.; Barichivich, William J.; Brown, Mary E.

2013-01-01

The Class Amphibia is one of the most severely impacted taxa in an on-going global biodiversity crisis. Because amphibian reproduction is tightly associated with the presence of water, climatic changes that affect water availability pose a particularly menacing threat to both aquatic and terrestrial-breeding amphibians. We explore the impacts that one facet of climate change—that of extreme variation in precipitation—may have on amphibians. This variation is manifested principally as increases in the incidence and severity of both drought and major storm events. We stress the need to consider not only total precipitation amounts but also the pattern and timing of rainfall events. Such rainfall “pulses” are likely to become increasingly more influential on amphibians, especially in relation to seasonal reproduction. Changes in reproductive phenology can strongly influence the outcome of competitive and predatory interactions, thus potentially altering community dynamics in assemblages of co-existing species. We present a conceptual model to illustrate possible landscape and metapopulation consequences of alternative climate change scenarios for pond-breeding amphibians, using the Mole Salamander, Ambystoma talpoideum, as an example. Although amphibians have evolved a variety of life history strategies that enable them to cope with environmental uncertainty, it is unclear whether adaptations can keep pace with the escalating rate of climate change. Climate change, especially in combination with other stressors, is a daunting challenge for the persistence of amphibians and, thus, the conservation of global biodiversity.

Validation of the Regional Climate Model ALARO with different dynamical downscaling approaches and different horizontal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berckmans, Julie; Hamdi, Rafiq; De Troch, Rozemien; Giot, Olivier

2015-04-01

At the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI), climate simulations are performed with the regional climate model (RCM) ALARO, a version of the ALADIN model with improved physical parameterizations. In order to obtain high-resolution information of the regional climate, lateral bounary conditions (LBC) are prescribed from the global climate model (GCM) ARPEGE. Dynamical downscaling is commonly done in a continuous long-term simulation, with the initialisation of the model at the start and driven by the regularly updated LBCs of the GCM. Recently, more interest exists in the dynamical downscaling approach of frequent reinitializations of the climate simulations. For these experiments, the model is initialised daily and driven for 24 hours by the GCM. However, the surface is either initialised daily together with the atmosphere or free to evolve continuously. The surface scheme implemented in ALARO is SURFEX, which can be either run in coupled mode or in stand-alone mode. The regional climate is simulated on different domains, on a 20km horizontal resolution over Western-Europe and a 4km horizontal resolution over Belgium. Besides, SURFEX allows to perform a stand-alone or offline simulation on 1km horizontal resolution over Belgium. This research is in the framework of the project MASC: "Modelling and Assessing Surface Change Impacts on Belgian and Western European Climate", a 4-year project funded by the Belgian Federal Government. The overall aim of the project is to study the feedbacks between climate changes and land surface changes in order to improve regional climate model projections at the decennial scale over Belgium and Western Europe and thus to provide better climate projections and climate change evaluation tools to policy makers, stakeholders and the scientific community.

The origin of climate changes.

PubMed

Delecluse, P

2008-08-01

Investigation on climate change is coordinated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which has the delicate task of collecting recent knowledge on climate change and the related impacts of the observed changes, and then developing a consensus statement from these findings. The IPCC's last review, published at the end of 2007, summarised major findings on the present climate situation. The observations show a clear increase in the temperature of the Earth's surface and the oceans, a reduction in the land snow cover, and melting of the sea ice and glaciers. Numerical modelling combined with statistical analysis has shown that this warming trend is very likely the signature of increasing emissions of greenhouse gases linked with human activities. Given the continuing social and economic development around the world, the IPCC emission scenarios forecast an increasing greenhouse effect, at least until 2050 according to the most optimistic models. The model ensemble predicts a rising temperature that will reach dangerous levels for the biosphere and ecosystems within this century. Hydrological systems and the potential significant impacts of these systems on the environment are also discussed. Facing this challenging future, societies must take measures to reduce emissions and work on adapting to an inexorably changing environment. Present knowledge is sufficientto start taking action, but a stronger foundation is needed to ensure that pertinent long-term choices are made that will meet the demands of an interactive and rapidly evolving world.

Different ecophysiological responses of freshwater fish to warming and acidification.

PubMed

Jesus, Tiago F; Rosa, Inês C; Repolho, Tiago; Lopes, Ana R; Pimentel, Marta S; Almeida-Val, Vera M F; Coelho, Maria M; Rosa, Rui

2018-02-01

Future climate change scenarios predict threatening outcomes to biodiversity. Available empirical data concerning biological response of freshwater fish to climate change remains scarce. In this study, we investigated the physiological and biochemical responses of two Iberian freshwater fish species (Squalius carolitertii and the endangered S. torgalensis), inhabiting different climatic conditions, to projected future scenarios of warming (+3°C) and acidification (ΔpH=-0.4). Herein, metabolic enzyme activities of glycolytic (citrate synthase - CS, lactate dehydrogenase - LDH) and antioxidant (glutathione S-transferase, catalase and superoxide dismutase) pathways, as well as the heat shock response (HSR) and lipid peroxidation were determined. Our results show that, under current water pH, warming causes differential interspecific changes on LDH activity, increasing and decreasing its activity in S. carolitertii and in S. torgalensis, respectively. Furthermore, the synergistic effect of warming and acidification caused an increase in LDH activity of S. torgalensis, comparing with the warming condition. As for CS activity, acidification significantly decreased its activity in S. carolitertii whereas in S. torgalensis no significant effect was observed. These results suggest that S. carolitertii is more vulnerable to climate change, possibly as the result of its evolutionary acclimatization to milder climatic condition, while S. torgalensis evolved in the warmer Mediterranean climate. However, significant changes in HSR were observed under the combined warming and acidification (S. carolitertii) or under acidification (S. torgalensis). Our results underlie the importance of conducting experimental studies and address species endpoint responses under projected climate change scenarios to improve conservation strategies, and to safeguard endangered freshwater fish. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Climate Change Information in Large Scale Coastal Planning: Louisiana's 2017 Coastal Master Plan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, D.

2017-12-01

The Louisiana coast has suffered severe land loss in recent decades as human activities have exacerbated the effects of natural stressors leading to catastrophic land loss and increased flood threats to coastal communities. Planning for the future requires a recognition of climate change but also leads to the challenge of understanding how different plausible future conditions influence the outcomes of restoration and protection actions. In coastal Louisiana, the $50 billion Coastal master Plan is legislatively required to be revisited every 5 years in order to ensure that plans for the future continue to be based on the best available, but constantly evolving, scientific information. For the 2017 iteration of the Coastal Master Plan, identification of the environmental scenarios to be explored began in 2014 and included both professional judgment regarding the most important drivers of future change, as well as climate change information derived during the National Climate Assessment. The number of scenarios to be explored was limited by both available resources and the need to make the findings accessible to stakeholders and policy makers. Plausible ranges were identified for key drivers of coastal landscape change, including climatic factors such as eustatic sea-level, precipitation and evapotranspiration. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to explore how the coastal landscape changed in response to combinations of values, allowed agency personnel to select three scenarios against which to test the effectiveness of different restoration and protection actions. The 2017 Coastal Master Plan was then developed by exploring the response of different actions to the scenarios, and how project costs also varied depending on future conditions. Such consideration of climate change in coastal planning at the state scale is facilitated by the availability of scientifically valid information on climate change, that has already been reviewed and sourced.

The Two Edged Sword; Illinois' Risk Reduction Success Through Managed Retreat And Strong Regulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osman, P.

2017-12-01

Illinois has the nation's largest inland system of rivers, lakes, and streams. Two thirds of the continental US and two Canadian provinces drain thru Illinois. Although a blessing, these waterways also result in frequent flooding. Historically, Illinois ranked among the top five states in the nation for flood losses. However, using a combination of strong floodplain regulations and proactive flood mitigation programs, Illinois now ranks near the bottom of flood loss states. Following the 1993 flood, the State of Illinois began an aggressive program to remove flood prone structures from the floodplain. Using a combination of state, federal, and local funds, towns like Valmeyer and Grafton have largely been relocated outside of the floodplain. Likewise, in dozens of communities across the state, thousands of structures have been have purchased to create open space in the floodplain. In addition, new structures in the floodplain must meet strict state and local floodplain construction standards. Major floods now routinely pass Illinois unnoticed. Many communities once ravaged by flooding now pass large floods unscathed. Due largely to climate change, flood losses in many areas are evolving. The majority of flood losses in Illinois now occur outside of the mapped floodplain. The State of Illinois has recently completed a detailed analysis of the state's urban flood exposure. Flood risk is changing and methods to address that risk must evolve accordingly. Accurate climate change data on major inland waterways and urban areas remain elusive. This presentation will highlight simple steps any state or community can take to reduce existing flood losses and be better prepared to address changing impacts due to climate change.

A transient fully coupled climate-ice-sheet simulation of the last glacial inception

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lofverstrom, M.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Lipscomb, W. H.; Fyke, J. G.; Marshall, S.; Sacks, B.; Brady, E. C.

2017-12-01

The last glacial inception occurred around 115 ka, following a relative minimum in the Northern Hemisphere summer insolation. It is believed that small and spatially separated ice caps initially formed in the high elevation regions of northern Canada, Scandinavia, and along the Siberian Arctic coast. These ice caps subsequently migrated down in the valleys where they coalesced and formed the initial seeds of the large coherent ice masses that covered the northern parts of the North American and Eurasian continents over most of the last glacial cycle. Sea level records show that the initial growth period lasted for about 10 kyrs, and the resulting ice sheets may have lowered the global sea level by as much as 30 to 50 meters. Here we examine the transient climate system evolution over the period between 118 and 110 ka, using the fully coupled Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). This model features a two-way coupled high-resolution (4x4 km) ice-sheet component (Community Ice Sheet model, version 2; CISM2) that simulates ice sheets as an interactive component of the climate system. We impose a transient forcing protocol where the greenhouse gas concentrations and the orbital parameters follow the nominal year in the simulation; the model topography is also dynamically evolving in order to reflect changes in ice elevation throughout the simulation. The analysis focuses on how the climate system evolves over this time interval, with a special focus on glacial inception in the high-latitude continents. Results will highlight how the evolving ice sheets compare to data and previous model based reconstructions.

Teleconnections in the Presence of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Annular Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerber, Edwin; Baldwin, Mark

2010-05-01

Long model integrations of future and past climates present a problem for defining teleconnection patterns through Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or correlation analysis when trends in the underlying climate begin to dominate the covariance structure. Similar issues may soon appear in observations as the record becomes longer, especially if climate trends accelerate. The Northern and Southern Annular Modes provide a prime example, because the poleward shift of the jet streams strongly projects onto these patterns, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere. Climate forecasts of the 21st century by chemistry climate models provide a case study. Computation of the annular modes in these long data sets with secular trends requires refinement of the standard definition of the annular mode, and a more robust procedure that allows for slowly varying trends is established and verified. The new procedure involves two key changes. First, the global mean geopotential height is removed at each time step before computing anomalies. This is particularly important high in the atmosphere, where seasonal variations in geopotential height become significant, and filters out trends due to changes in the temperature structure of the atmosphere. Pattern definition can be very sensitive near the tropopause, as regions of the atmosphere that used to be more of stratospheric character begin to take on tropospheric characteristics as the tropopause rises. The second change is to define anomalies relative to a slowly evolving seasonal climatology, so that the covariance structure reflects internal variability. Once these changes are accounted for, it is found that the zonal mean variability of the atmosphere stays remarkably constant, despite significant changes in the baseline climate forecast for the rest of the century. This stability of the internal variability makes it possible to relate trends in climate to teleconnections.

Piloting Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA): Planning for Climate Change at the Portland Water Bureau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heyn, K.; Campbell, E.

2016-12-01

The Portland Water Bureau has been studying the anticipated effects of climate change on its primary surface water source, the Bull Run Watershed, since the early 2000's. Early efforts by the bureau were almost exclusively reliant on outside expertise from climate modelers and researchers, particularly those at the Climate Impacts Group (CIG) at the University of Washington. Early work products from CIG formed the basis of the bureau's understanding of the most likely and consequential impacts to the watershed from continued GHG-caused warming. However, by mid-decade, as key supply and demand conditions for the bureau changed, it found it lacked the technical capacity and tools to conduct more refined and updated research to build on the outside analysis it had obtained. Beginning in 2010 through its participation in the Pilot Utility Modeling Applications (PUMA) project, the bureau identified and began working to address the holes in its technical and institutional capacity by embarking on a process to assess and select a hydrologic model while obtaining downscaled climate change data to utilize within it. Parallel to the development of these technical elements, the bureau made investments in qualified staff to lead the model selection, development and utilization, while working to establish productive, collegial and collaborative relationships with key climate research staff at the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI), the University of Washington and the University of Idaho. This presentation describes the learning process of a major metropolitan area drinking water utility as its approach to addressing the complex problem of climate change evolves, matures, and begins to influence broader aspects of the organization's planning efforts.

Climate of an Earth-Like World with Changing Eccentricity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kohler, Susanna

2017-02-01

Having a giant planet like Jupiter next door can really wreak havoc on your orbit! A new study examines what such a bad neighbor might mean for the long-term climate of an Earth-like planet.Influence of a Bad NeighborThe presence of a Jupiter-like giant planet in a nearby orbit can significantly affect how terrestrial planets evolve dynamically, causing elements like the planets orbital eccentricities and axial tilts to change over time. Earth is saved this inconvenience Jupiter isnt close enough to significantly influence us, and our large moon stabilizes our orbit against Jupiters tugs.Top panels: Authors simulationoutcomes for Case1, in which the planets eccentricity varies from 0 to 0.283 over 6500 years. Bottom panels: Outcomes for Case 2, in which the planets eccentricity varies from 0 to 0.066 over 4500 years. The highereccentricities reached in Case 1 causes the climate parameters to vary more widely. Click for a better look! [Way Georgakarakos 2017]Mars, on the other hand, isnt as lucky: its possible that Jupiters gravitational pull causes Marss axial tilt, for instance, to evolve through a range as large as 0 to 60 degrees on timescales of millions of years! Marss orbital eccentricity is similarly thought to vary due to Jupiters influence, and both of these factors play a major role in determining Marss climate.As exoplanet missions discover more planets many of which are Earth-like we must carefully consider which among these are most likely to be capable of sustaining life. If having a nearby neighbor like a Jupiter can tug an Earth-like world into an orbit with varying eccentricity, how does this affect the planets climate? Will the planet remain temperate? Or will it develop a runaway heating or cooling effect as it orbits, rendering it uninhabitable?Oceans and OrbitsTo examine these questions, two scientists have built the first ever 3D global climate model simulations of an Earth-like world using a fully coupled ocean (necessary for understanding the transport of heat across the planet) with a planetary orbit that evolves over time.The surface air temperature variation of a planet with orbital eccentricity of 0.283. The top panel shows the surface temperature when the planet is closest to the star in its orbit (periastron); the bottom when the planet is furthest from the star in its orbit (apoastron). [Way Georgakarakos 2017]The scientists, Michael Way (NASA Goddard and Uppsala University, Sweden) and Nikolaos Georgakarakos (New York University Abu Dhabi), focus in this study on the specific effects of a varying orbital eccentricity on an Earth-like planets climate, holding the planets axial tilt steady at Earths 23.5. They explore two scenarios: one in which the planets eccentricity evolves from 0 to 0.283 over 6500 years, and the other in which it evolves from 0 to 0.066 over 4500 years.Temperate OutcomesWay and Georgakarakos find that the planet with the more widely varying eccentricity has a greater increase rainfall and humidity as the planet approaches its host star in its orbit. Nonetheless, this effect is not enough to cause a runaway greenhouse scenario in which the planet becomes too warm for habitability. Similarly, the ocean ice fraction remains low enough even at apoastron in high-eccentricity scenarios for the planet to remain temperate.What does these results imply? Having a changing eccentricity caused by the gravitational pull of a nearby Jupiter-like neighbor may make a planets climate more variable, but not to the extent where the planet is no longer able to support life. Therefore, as we discover more such planets with current and upcoming exoplanet missions, we know that we neednt necessarily assume that they arent interest for habitability.CitationM. J. Way and Nikolaos Georgakarakos 2017 ApJL 835 L1. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/835/1/L1

The Climate Resilience Toolkit: Central gateway for risk assessment and resilience planning at all governance scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herring, D.; Lipschultz, F.

2016-12-01

As people and organizations grapple with a changing climate amid a range of other factors simultaneously shifting, there is a need for credible, legitimate & salient scientific information in useful formats. In addition, an assessment framework is needed to guide the process of planning and implementing projects that allow communities and businesses to adapt to specific changing conditions, while also building overall resilience to future change. We will discuss how the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) can improve people's ability to understand and manage their climate-related risks and opportunities, and help them make their communities and businesses more resilient. In close coordination with the U.S. Climate Data Initiative, the CRT is continually evolving to offer actionable authoritative information, relevant tools, and subject matter expertise from across the U.S. federal government in one easy-to-use location. The Toolkit's "Climate Explorer" is designed to help people understand potential climate conditions over the course of this century. It offers easy access to downloadable maps, graphs, and data tables of observed and projected temperature, precipitation and other decision-relevant climate variables dating back to 1950 and out to 2100. Since climate is only one of many changing factors affecting decisions about the future, it also ties climate information to a wide range of relevant variables to help users explore vulnerabilities and impacts. New topic areas have been added, such as "Fisheries," "Regions," and "Built Environment" sections that feature case studies and personal experiences in making adaptation decisions. A curated "Reports" section is integrated with semantic web capabilities to help users locate the most relevant information sources. As part of the USGCRP's sustained assessment process, the CRT is aligning with other federal activities, such as the upcoming 4th National Climate Assessment.

Climate Curriculum Modules on Volcanic Eruptions, Geoengineering, and Nuclear Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.

2014-12-01

To support a climate dynamics multidisciplinary curriculum for graduate and senior university students, I will describe on-line modules on volcanic eruptions and climate, geoengineering, and nuclear winter. Each of these topics involves aerosols in the stratosphere and the response of the climate system, but each is distinct, and each is evolving as more research becomes available. As reported for the first time in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, volcanic eruptions are a natural analog for the climate impacts of potential anthropogenic aerosol injections into the stratosphere, either sulfates from potential attempts to cool the climate to counteract global warming, or smoke that would be produced from fires in cities and industrial targets in a nuclear war. The volcanic eruptions module would stand alone, and would also serve as a prerequisite for each of the other two modules, which could be taught independently of each other. Each module includes consideration of the physical climate system as well as impacts of the resulting climate change. Geoengineering includes both solar radiation management and carbon dioxide reduction. The geoengineering and nuclear winter modules also include consideration of policy and governance issues. Each module includes a slide set for use in lecturing, links to related resources, and student exercises. The modules will be regularly updated.

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change.

PubMed

Watts, Nick; Adger, W Neil; Ayeb-Karlsson, Sonja; Bai, Yuqi; Byass, Peter; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Colbourn, Tim; Cox, Peter; Davies, Michael; Depledge, Michael; Depoux, Anneliese; Dominguez-Salas, Paula; Drummond, Paul; Ekins, Paul; Flahault, Antoine; Grace, Delia; Graham, Hilary; Haines, Andy; Hamilton, Ian; Johnson, Anne; Kelman, Ilan; Kovats, Sari; Liang, Lu; Lott, Melissa; Lowe, Robert; Luo, Yong; Mace, Georgina; Maslin, Mark; Morrissey, Karyn; Murray, Kris; Neville, Tara; Nilsson, Maria; Oreszczyn, Tadj; Parthemore, Christine; Pencheon, David; Robinson, Elizabeth; Schütte, Stefanie; Shumake-Guillemot, Joy; Vineis, Paolo; Wilkinson, Paul; Wheeler, Nicola; Xu, Bing; Yang, Jun; Yin, Yongyuan; Yu, Chaoqing; Gong, Peng; Montgomery, Hugh; Costello, Anthony

2017-03-18

The Lancet Countdown: tracking progress on health and climate change is an international, multidisciplinary research collaboration between academic institutions and practitioners across the world. It follows on from the work of the 2015 Lancet Commission, which concluded that the response to climate change could be "the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century". The Lancet Countdown aims to track the health impacts of climate hazards; health resilience and adaptation; health co-benefits of climate change mitigation; economics and finance; and political and broader engagement. These focus areas form the five thematic working groups of the Lancet Countdown and represent different aspects of the complex association between health and climate change. These thematic groups will provide indicators for a global overview of health and climate change; national case studies highlighting countries leading the way or going against the trend; and engagement with a range of stakeholders. The Lancet Countdown ultimately aims to report annually on a series of indicators across these five working groups. This paper outlines the potential indicators and indicator domains to be tracked by the collaboration, with suggestions on the methodologies and datasets available to achieve this end. The proposed indicator domains require further refinement, and mark the beginning of an ongoing consultation process-from November, 2016 to early 2017-to develop these domains, identify key areas not currently covered, and change indicators where necessary. This collaboration will actively seek to engage with existing monitoring processes, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and WHO's climate and health country profiles. The indicators will also evolve over time through ongoing collaboration with experts and a range of stakeholders, and be dependent on the emergence of new evidence and knowledge. During the course of its work, the Lancet Countdown will adopt a collaborative and iterative process, which aims to complement existing initiatives, welcome engagement with new partners, and be open to developing new research projects on health and climate change. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The great carbon push-pull: where science is pushing and policy is pulling the official forest carbon inventory of the US

Treesearch

C.W. Woodall; G.M. Domke; J. Coulston; M.B. Russell; J.A. Smith; C.H. Perry; S. Healey; A. Gray

2015-01-01

A national system of field inventory plots (FIA) is the primary data source for the annual assessment of US forest carbon (C) stocks and stock-change to meet reporting requirements under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The inventory data and their role in national carbon reporting continue to evolve. The framework of the previous C...

Integration of research advances in modelling and monitoring in support of WFD river basin management planning in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Quevauviller, Philippe; Barceló, Damia; Beniston, Martin; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Harding, Richard J; Iglesias, Ana; Ludwig, Ralf; Navarra, Antonio; Navarro Ortega, Alícia; Mark, Ole; Roson, Roberto; Sempere, Daniel; Stoffel, Markus; van Lanen, Henny A J; Werner, Micha

2012-12-01

The integration of scientific knowledge about possible climate change impacts on water resources has a direct implication on the way water policies are being implemented and evolving. This is particularly true regarding various technical steps embedded into the EU Water Framework Directive river basin management planning, such as risk characterisation, monitoring, design and implementation of action programmes and evaluation of the "good status" objective achievements (in 2015). The need to incorporate climate change considerations into the implementation of EU water policy is currently discussed with a wide range of experts and stakeholders at EU level. Research trends are also on-going, striving to support policy developments and examining how scientific findings and recommendations could be best taken on board by policy-makers and water managers within the forthcoming years. This paper provides a snapshot of policy discussions about climate change in the context of the WFD river basin management planning and specific advancements of related EU-funded research projects. Perspectives for strengthening links among the scientific and policy-making communities in this area are also highlighted. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in Northern Alaska and other Arctic regions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hinzman, L.D.; Bettez, N.D.; Bolton, W.R.; Chapin, F.S.; Dyurgerov, M.B.; Fastie, C.L.; Griffith, B.; Hollister, R.D.; Hope, Allen; Huntington, H.P.; Jensen, A.M.; Jia, G.J.; Jorgenson, T.; Kane, D.L.; Klein, D.R.; Kofinas, G.; Lynch, A.H.; Lloyd, A.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Nelson, Frederick E.; Oechel, W.C.; Osterkamp, T.E.; Racine, C.H.; Romanovsky, V.E.; Stone, R.S.; Stow, D.A.; Sturm, M.; Tweedie, C.E.; Vourlitis, G.L.; Walker, M.D.; Walker, D.A.; Webber, P.J.; Welker, J.M.; Winker, K.S.; Yoshikawa, K.

2005-01-01

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth system and how humans will need to adapt. Our holistic review presents a broad array of evidence that illustrates convincingly; the Arctic is undergoing a system-wide response to an altered climatic state. New extreme and seasonal surface climatic conditions are being experienced, a range of biophysical states and processes influenced by the threshold and phase change of freezing point are being altered, hydrological and biogeochemical cycles are shifting, and more regularly human sub-systems are being affected. Importantly, the patterns, magnitude and mechanisms of change have sometimes been unpredictable or difficult to isolate due to compounding factors. In almost every discipline represented, we show how the biocomplexity of the Arctic system has highlighted and challenged a paucity of integrated scientific knowledge, the lack of sustained observational and experimental time series, and the technical and logistic constraints of researching the Arctic environment. This study supports ongoing efforts to strengthen the interdisciplinarity of arctic system science and improve the coupling of large scale experimental manipulation with sustained time series observations by incorporating and integrating novel technologies, remote sensing and modeling. ?? Springer 2005.

Building a Framework in Improving Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Shiferaw, A. S.; Beyene, S.; Demisse, G. B.; Zaitchik, B.

2015-12-01

Decision makers need a basic understanding of the prediction models and products of hydro-climatic extremes and their suitability in time and space for strategic resource and development planning to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Advances in our ability to assess and predict climate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods) under evolving climate change suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic/hydrologic risk in agriculture and water resources. In the NASA funded project entitled, "Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies," we are attempting to develop a framework that uses dialogue between managers and scientists on how to enhance the use of models' outputs and prediction products in the GHA as well as improve the delivery of this information in ways that can be easily utilized by managers. This process is expected to help our multidisciplinary research team obtain feedback on the models and forecast products. In addition, engaging decision makers is essential in evaluating the use of drought and flood prediction models and products for decision-making processes in drought and flood management. Through this study, we plan to assess information requirements to implement a robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) by engaging decision makers in the process. This participatory process could also help the existing EWSs in Africa and to develop new local and regional EWSs. In this presentation, we report the progress made in the past two years of the NASA project.

Hazardous thunderstorm intensification over Lake Victoria

PubMed Central

Thiery, Wim; Davin, Edouard L.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Bedka, Kristopher; Lhermitte, Stef; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.

2016-01-01

Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria, where thousands of fishermen die every year because of intense night-time thunderstorms. Yet how these thunderstorms will evolve in a future warmer climate is still unknown. Here we show that Lake Victoria is projected to be a hotspot of future extreme precipitation intensification by using new satellite-based observations, a high-resolution climate projection for the African Great Lakes and coarser-scale ensemble projections. Land precipitation on the previous day exerts a control on night-time occurrence of extremes on the lake by enhancing atmospheric convergence (74%) and moisture availability (26%). The future increase in extremes over Lake Victoria is about twice as large relative to surrounding land under a high-emission scenario, as only over-lake moisture advection is high enough to sustain Clausius–Clapeyron scaling. Our results highlight a major hazard associated with climate change over East Africa and underline the need for high-resolution projections to assess local climate change. PMID:27658848

Evaluation of seven drought tolerant tree species for central California

Treesearch

E.G. McPherson; S. Albers

2014-01-01

Climate change poses challenges for the Southwest, where an already parched region is expected to get hotter and, in its southern half, significantly drier (Garfin et al. 2013). Increased heat and sustained drought will stress water sources and redefine urban landscapes. As landscapes gradually evolve from lush to xeric, tolerance of trees to water-related stress...

Strategizing for the Future: Evolving Cultural Resource Centers in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shek, Yen Ling

2013-01-01

Cultural resource centers have been an ongoing and integral component to creating a more welcoming campus climate for Students of Color since its establishment in the 1960s. While the racial dynamics may have changed, many of the challenges Students of Color faced on predominantly White campuses have not. Interestingly, cultural resource centers…

Stream temperature variability: why it matters to salmon

Treesearch

E. Ashley Steel; Brian Beckman; Marie Oliver

2014-01-01

Salmon evolved in natural river systems, where temperatures fluctuate daily, weekly, seasonally, and all along a stream’s path—from the mountains to the sea. Climate change and human activities alter this natural variability. Dams, for example, tend to reduce thermal fluctuations.Currently, scientists gauge habitat suitability for aquatic species by...

Genetic Diversity of Toscana Virus

PubMed Central

Collao, Ximena; Palacios, Gustavo; Sanbonmatsu-Gámez, Sara; Pérez-Ruiz, Mercedes; Negredo, Ana I.; Navarro-Marí, José-María; Grandadam, Marc; Aransay, Ana Maria; Lipkin, W. Ian; Tenorio, Antonio

2009-01-01

Distribution of Toscana virus (TOSV) is evolving with climate change, and pathogenicity may be higher in nonexposed populations outside areas of current prevalence (Mediterranean Basin). To characterize genetic diversity of TOSV, we determined the coding sequences of isolates from Spain and France. TOSV is more diverse than other well-studied phleboviruses (e.g.,Rift Valley fever virus). PMID:19331735

Is There Any Evidence for Rapid, Genetically-Based, Climatic Niche Expansion in the Invasive Common Ragweed?

PubMed

Gallien, Laure; Thuiller, Wilfried; Fort, Noémie; Boleda, Marti; Alberto, Florian J; Rioux, Delphine; Lainé, Juliette; Lavergne, Sébastien

2016-01-01

Climatic niche shifts have been documented in a number of invasive species by comparing the native and adventive climatic ranges in which they occur. However, these shifts likely represent changes in the realized climatic niches of invasive species, and may not necessarily be driven by genetic changes in climatic affinities. Until now the role of rapid niche evolution in the spread of invasive species remains a challenging issue with conflicting results. Here, we document a likely genetically-based climatic niche expansion of an annual plant invader, the common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a highly allergenic invasive species causing substantial public health issues. To do so, we looked for recent evolutionary change at the upward migration front of its adventive range in the French Alps. Based on species climatic niche models estimated at both global and regional scales we stratified our sampling design to adequately capture the species niche, and localized populations suspected of niche expansion. Using a combination of species niche modeling, landscape genetics models and common garden measurements, we then related the species genetic structure and its phenotypic architecture across the climatic niche. Our results strongly suggest that the common ragweed is rapidly adapting to local climatic conditions at its invasion front and that it currently expands its niche toward colder and formerly unsuitable climates in the French Alps (i.e. in sites where niche models would not predict its occurrence). Such results, showing that species climatic niches can evolve on very short time scales, have important implications for predictive models of biological invasions that do not account for evolutionary processes.

GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wouters, B.; Bonin, J. A.; Chambers, D. P.; Riva, R. E. M.; Sasgen, I.; Wahr, J.

2014-11-01

Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data—provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)—can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.

GRACE, time-varying gravity, Earth system dynamics and climate change.

PubMed

Wouters, B; Bonin, J A; Chambers, D P; Riva, R E M; Sasgen, I; Wahr, J

2014-11-01

Continuous observations of temporal variations in the Earth's gravity field have recently become available at an unprecedented resolution of a few hundreds of kilometers. The gravity field is a product of the Earth's mass distribution, and these data-provided by the satellites of the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE)-can be used to study the exchange of mass both within the Earth and at its surface. Since the launch of the mission in 2002, GRACE data has evolved from being an experimental measurement needing validation from ground truth, to a respected tool for Earth scientists representing a fixed bound on the total change and is now an important tool to help unravel the complex dynamics of the Earth system and climate change. In this review, we present the mission concept and its theoretical background, discuss the data and give an overview of the major advances GRACE has provided in Earth science, with a focus on hydrology, solid Earth sciences, glaciology and oceanography.

Vegetation-mediated Climate Impacts on Historical and Future Ozone Air Quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tai, A. P. K.; Fu, Y.; Mickley, L. J.; Heald, C. L.; Wu, S.

2014-12-01

Changes in climate, natural vegetation and human land use are expected to significantly influence air quality in the coming century. These changes and their interactions have important ramifications for the effectiveness of air pollution control strategies. In a series of studies, we use a one-way coupled modeling framework (GEOS-Chem driven by different combinations of historical and future meteorological, land cover and emission data) to investigate the effects of climate-vegetation changes on global and East Asian ozone air quality from 30 years ago to 40 years into the future. We find that future climate and climate-driven vegetation changes combine to increase summertime ozone by 2-6 ppbv in populous regions of the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia by year 2050, but including the interaction between CO2 and biogenic isoprene emission reduces the climate impacts by more than half. Land use change such as cropland expansion has the potential to either mostly offset the climate-driven ozone increases (e.g., in the US and Europe), or greatly increase ozone (e.g., in Southeast Asia). The projected climate-vegetation effects in East Asia are particularly uncertain, reflecting a less understood ozone production regime. We thus further study how East Asian ozone air quality has evolved since the early 1980s in response to climate, vegetation and emission changes to shed light on its likely future course. We find that warming alone has led to a substantial increase in summertime ozone in populous regions by 1-4 ppbv. Despite significant cropland expansion and urbanization, increased summertime leafiness of vegetation in response to warming and CO2 fertilization has reduced ozone by 1-2 ppbv, driven by enhanced ozone deposition dominating over elevated biogenic emission and partially offsetting the warming effect. The historical role of CO2-isoprene interaction in East Asia, however, remains highly uncertain. Our findings demonstrate the important roles of land cover and vegetation in modulating climate-chemistry interactions, and highlight aspects that warrant further investigation.

Exposure science in an age of rapidly changing climate: challenges and opportunities

PubMed Central

LaKind, Judy S; Overpeck, Jonathan; Breysse, Patrick N; Backer, Lorrie; Richardson, Susan D; Sobus, Jon; Sapkota, Amir; Upperman, Crystal R; Jiang, Chengsheng; Beard, C Ben; Brunkard, J M; Bell, Jesse E; Harris, Ryan; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Peltier, Richard E; Chew, Ginger L; Blount, Benjamin C

2016-01-01

Climate change is anticipated to alter the production, use, release, and fate of environmental chemicals, likely leading to increased uncertainty in exposure and human health risk predictions. Exposure science provides a key connection between changes in climate and associated health outcomes. The theme of the 2015 Annual Meeting of the International Society of Exposure Science—Exposures in an Evolving Environment—brought this issue to the fore. By directing attention to questions that may affect society in profound ways, exposure scientists have an opportunity to conduct “consequential science”—doing science that matters, using our tools for the greater good and to answer key policy questions, and identifying causes leading to implementation of solutions. Understanding the implications of changing exposures on public health may be one of the most consequential areas of study in which exposure scientists could currently be engaged. In this paper, we use a series of case studies to identify exposure data gaps and research paths that will enable us to capture the information necessary for understanding climate change-related human exposures and consequent health impacts. We hope that paper will focus attention on under-developed areas of exposure science that will likely have broad implications for public health. PMID:27485992

Moisture fluxes towards Switzerland: investigating future changes in CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fazan, Valerie; Martius, Olivia; Martynov, Andrey; Panziera, Luca

2017-04-01

High integrated vapor transport (IVT) in the atmosphere directed perpendicular to the orography is an important proxy for flood related precipitation in many mountainous areas around the world. Here we focus on flood related IVT and its changes in a warmer climate in Switzerland, where most high-impact floods events in the past 30 years were connected to exceptional IVT upstream of the mountains. Our study aims at investigating how these critical IVT values are projected to evolve in the future in a changing climate. The IVT is computed from 15 CMIP5 climate models for the past (1950-2005) and the future (2006-2100) under the RCP 8.5 scenario ("business as usual"). In order to check the accuracy of the models and the effect of the varying resolution, present day IVT from the CMIP5 models is compared with the ERA-Interim reanalysis data (period 1979-2015). A quantile mapping technique is then used to correct biases. The same bias corrections are applied to the future (2006-2100) IVT data. Finally, future changes in extreme IVT are investigated. This includes an analysis of changes in the magnitude and direction of the moisture flux in the different seasons for different regions in Switzerland.

Locomotion in response to shifting climate zones: not so fast.

PubMed

Feder, Martin E; Garland, Theodore; Marden, James H; Zera, Anthony J

2010-01-01

Although a species' locomotor capacity is suggestive of its ability to escape global climate change, such a suggestion is not necessarily straightforward. Species vary substantially in locomotor capacity, both ontogenetically and within/among populations, and much of this variation has a genetic basis. Accordingly, locomotor capacity can and does evolve rapidly, as selection experiments demonstrate. Importantly, even though this evolution of locomotor capacity may be rapid enough to escape changing climate, genetic correlations among traits (often due to pleiotropy) are such that successful or rapid dispersers are often limited in colonization or reproductive ability, which may be viewed as a trade-off. The nuanced assessment of this variation and evolution is reviewed for well-studied models: salmon, flying versus flightless insects, rodents undergoing experimental evolution, and metapopulations of butterflies. This work reveals how integration of physiology with population biology and functional genomics can be especially informative.

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cohen, Charlie; Robertson, Franklin; Molod, Andrea

2014-01-01

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Using Ensemble Short-Term Initialized Coupled NASA GEOS5 Climate Model Integrations to Study Convective Bias Growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robertson, F. R.; Cohen, C.

2014-12-01

The representation of convective processes, particularly deep convection in the tropics, remains a persistent problem in climate models. In fact structural biases in the distribution of tropical rainfall in the CMIP5 models is hardly different than that of the CMIP3 versions. Given that regional climate change at higher latitudes is sensitive to the configuration of tropical forcing, this persistent bias is a major issue for the credibility of climate change projections. In this study we use model output from integrations of the NASA Global Earth Observing System Five (GEOS5) climate modeling system to study the evolution of biases in the location and intensity of convective processes. We take advantage of a series of hindcast experiments done in support of the US North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) initiative. For these experiments a nine-month forecast using a coupled model configuration is made approximately every five days over the past 30 years. Each forecast is started with an updated analysis of the ocean, atmosphere and land states. For a given calendar month we have approximately 180 forecasts with daily means of various quantities. These forecasts can be averaged to essentially remove "weather scales" and highlight systematic errors as they evolve. Our primary question is to ask how the spatial structure of daily mean precipitation over the tropics evolves from the initial state and what physical processes are involved. Errors in parameterized convection, various water and energy fluxes and the divergent circulation are found to set up on fast time scales (order five days) compared to errors in the ocean, although SST changes can be non-negligible over that time. For the month of June the difference between forecast day five versus day zero precipitation looks quite similar to the difference between the June precipitation climatology and that from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). We focus much of our analysis on the influence of SST gradients, associated PBL baroclinicity enabled by turbulent mixing, the ensuing PBL moisture convergence, and how changes in these processes relate to convective precipitation bias growth over this short period.

Climate and CO2 coupling in the early Cenozoic Greenhouse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rae, J. W. B.; Greenop, R.; Kaminski, M.; Sexton, P. F.; Foster, G. L.; Greene, S. E.; Littley, E.; Kirtland Turner, S.; Ridgwell, A.

2017-12-01

The early Cenozoic is a time of climatic extremes: hyperthermals pepper the transition from extreme global warmth to the start of Cenozoic cooling, with these evolving climate regimes accompanied by major changes in ocean chemistry and biota. The exogenic carbon cycle, and ocean-atmospheric CO2 in particular, is thought to have played a key role in these climatic changes, but the carbon chemistry of the early Cenozoic ocean remains poorly constrained. Here we present new boron isotope data from benthic foraminifera, which can be used to constrain relative changes in ocean pH. These are coupled with modelling experiments performed with the cGenie Earth system model to provide new constraints on the carbon cycle and carbonate system of the early Cenozoic. While our benthic boron isotope data do not readily provide a record of surface ocean CO2 , they do place constraints on the whole ocean-atmosphere carbonate system, alongside changes in ocean circulation and biogeochemistry, and also have relatively robust calcite tests and small `vital effects'. During the late Paleocene ascent to peak greenhouse conditions and the middle Eocene descent towards the icehouse, our boron isotope data show close coupling with benthic δ18O, demonstrating a clear link between CO2 and climate. However within the early Eocene our boron isotope data reveal more dynamic changes in deep ocean pH, which may be linked to changes in ocean circulation. Overall, our data demonstrate the ability of CO2 to regulate the climate system across varying boundary conditions, and the influence of both the long-term carbon cycle and shorter-term ocean biogeochemical cycling on Earth's climate.

Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradis, Daniel; Vigneault, Harold; Lefebvre, René; Savard, Martine M.; Ballard, Jean-Marc; Qian, Budong

2016-03-01

Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentration could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. The change in groundwater recharge regime induced by climate change (with current agricultural practices) would only contribute 0 to 6 % of that increase for the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to the slow dynamics of nitrate transport within the aquifer system.

An Integrated Assessment of Water Scarcity Effects on Energy and Land Use Decisions and Mitigation Policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hejazi, M. I.; Kim, S. H.; Liu, L.; Liu, Y.; Calvin, K. V.; Leon, C.; Edmonds, J.; Kyle, P.; Patel, P.; Wise, M. A.; Davies, E. G.

2015-12-01

Water is essential for the world's food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide food for an increasing population. We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), where interactions between population, economic growth, energy, land and water resources interact simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system, to investigate how water scarcity affects energy and land use decisions as well as mitigation policies. In GCAM, competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater sources and desalinated water—across 235 major river basins. Limits to hydrologic systems have significant effects on energy and land use induced emissions via constraints on decisions of their use. We explore these effects and how they evolve under climate change mitigation policies, which can significantly alter land use patterns, both by limiting land use change emissions and by increasing bioenergy production. The study also explores the mitigation scenarios in the context of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated, as our simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. This study highlights the fact that water is a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in integrated assessment models (IAMs), and stresses the crucial role of water in regulating agricultural commodities trade and land-use and energy decisions.

Sensory basis of lepidopteran migration: Focus on the monarch butterfly

PubMed Central

Guerra, Patrick A.; Reppert, Steven M.

2015-01-01

In response to seasonal habitats, migratory lepidopterans, exemplified by the monarch butterfly, have evolved migration to deal with dynamic conditions. During migration, monarchs use orientation mechanisms, exploiting a time-compensated sun compasses and a light-sensitive inclination magnetic compass to facilitate fall migration south. The sun compass is bidirectional with overwintering coldness triggering the change in orientation direction for remigration northward in the spring. The timing of the remigration and milkweed emergence in the southern US have co-evolved for propagation of the migration. Current research is uncovering the anatomical and molecular substrates that underlie migratory-relevant sensory mechanisms with the antennae being critical components. Orientation mechanisms may be detrimentally affected by environmental factors such as climate change and sensory interference from human-generated sources. PMID:25625216

Sensory basis of lepidopteran migration: focus on the monarch butterfly.

PubMed

Guerra, Patrick A; Reppert, Steven M

2015-10-01

In response to seasonal habitats, migratory lepidopterans, exemplified by the monarch butterfly, have evolved migration to deal with dynamic conditions. During migration, monarchs use orientation mechanisms, exploiting a time-compensated sun compass and a light-sensitive inclination magnetic compass to facilitate fall migration south. The sun compass is bidirectional with overwintering coldness triggering the change in orientation direction for remigration northward in the spring. The timing of the remigration and milkweed emergence in the southern US have co-evolved for propagation of the migration. Current research is uncovering the anatomical and molecular substrates that underlie migratory-relevant sensory mechanisms with the antennae being critical components. Orientation mechanisms may be detrimentally affected by environmental factors such as climate change and sensory interference from human-generated sources. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Importance of Anthropogenic Aerosols for Climate Prediction: a Study on East Asian Sulfate Aerosols

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartlett, R. E.; Bollasina, M. A.

2017-12-01

Climate prediction is vital to ensure that we are able to adapt to our changing climate. Understandably, the main focus for such prediction is greenhouse gas forcing, as this will be the main anthropogenic driver of long-term global climate change; however, other forcings could still be important. Atmospheric aerosols represent one such forcing, especially in regions with high present-day aerosol loading such as Asia; yet, uncertainty in their future emissions are under-sampled by commonly used climate forcing projections, such as the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Globally, anthropogenic aerosols exert a net cooling, but their effects show large variation at regional scales. Studies have shown that aerosols impact locally upon temperature, precipitation and hydroclimate, and also upon larger scale atmospheric circulation (for example, the Asian monsoon) with implications for climate remote from aerosol sources. We investigate how future climate could evolve differently given the same greenhouse gas forcing pathway but differing aerosol emissions. Specifically, we use climate modelling experiments (using HadGEM2-ES) of two scenarios based upon RCP2.6 greenhouse gas forcing but with large differences in sulfur dioxide emissions over East Asia. Results show that increased sulfate aerosols (associated with increased sulfur dioxide) lead to large regional cooling through aerosol-radiation and aerosol-cloud interactions. Focussing on dynamical mechanisms, we explore the consequences of this cooling for the Asian summer and winter monsoons. In addition to local temperature and precipitation changes, we find significant changes to large scale atmospheric circulation. Wave-like responses to upper-level atmospheric changes propagate across the northern hemisphere with far-reaching effects on surface climate, for example, cooling over Europe. Within the tropics, we find alterations to zonal circulation (notably, shifts in the Pacific Walker cell) and monsoon systems outside of Asia. These results indicate that anthropogenic aerosols have significant climate impacts against a background of greenhouse gas-induced climate change, and thus represent a key source of uncertainty in near-term climate projection that should be seriously considered in future climate assessments.

Transitions or turnovers? Climatically-forced extinctions of Homo sapiens and Neanderthals in the east Mediterranean Levant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, John J.

2008-11-01

The East Mediterranean Levant is a focal point for debate about evolutionary continuity among Late Pleistocene hominin populations. Changes in the Levantine Middle and Upper Palaeolithic archaeological records are almost invariably described in terms of adaptive shifts and behavioural transitions, rather than as changes in hominin populations. This paper examines evidence for hominin evolutionary continuity in the Levant between 130 and 25 ka. Two inflection points, one within the Middle Palaeolithic ca 75 ka and the other between the Middle and Upper Palaeolithic ca 45 ka, are examined in light of recently-discovered evidence for rapid climate change and environmental deterioration. It is proposed that both periods mark regional extinctions and turnovers of hominin populations. The first of these occurred among early Homo sapiens, the second among Neanderthals. Each event was followed by dispersal of hominin populations into the Levant from adjacent regions. Differences in Middle vs. Upper Palaeolithic Homo sapiens' long-term success in the Levant may reflect recently-evolved strategies for coping with rapid climate change and with colder arid habitats.

Remotely Sensed Northern Vegetation Response to Changing Climate: Growing Season and Productivity Perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganguly, S.; Park, Taejin; Choi, Sungho; Bi, Jian; Knyazikhin, Yuri; Myneni, Ranga

2016-01-01

Vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthetic state determine spatiotemporal variability of seasonal total gross primary productivity of vegetation. Recent warming induced impacts accelerate shifts on growing season and physiological status over Northern vegetated land. Thus, understanding and quantifying these changes are very important. Here, we first investigate how vegetation growing season and maximum photosynthesis state are evolved and how such components contribute on inter-annual variation of seasonal total gross primary productivity. Furthermore, seasonally different response of northern vegetation to changing temperature and water availability is also investigated. We utilized both long-term remotely sensed data to extract larger scale growing season metrics (growing season start, end and duration) and productivity (i.e., growing season summed vegetation index, GSSVI) for answering these questions. We find that regionally diverged growing season shift and maximum photosynthetic state contribute differently characterized productivity inter-annual variability and trend. Also seasonally different response of vegetation gives different view of spatially varying interaction between vegetation and climate. These results highlight spatially and temporally varying vegetation dynamics and are reflective of biome-specific responses of northern vegetation to changing climate.

Why climate change will invariably alter selection pressures on phenology.

PubMed

Gienapp, Phillip; Reed, Thomas E; Visser, Marcel E

2014-10-22

The seasonal timing of lifecycle events is closely linked to individual fitness and hence, maladaptation in phenological traits may impact population dynamics. However, few studies have analysed whether and why climate change will alter selection pressures and hence possibly induce maladaptation in phenology. To fill this gap, we here use a theoretical modelling approach. In our models, the phenologies of consumer and resource are (potentially) environmentally sensitive and depend on two different but correlated environmental variables. Fitness of the consumer depends on the phenological match with the resource. Because we explicitly model the dependence of the phenologies on environmental variables, we can test how differential (heterogeneous) versus equal (homogeneous) rates of change in the environmental variables affect selection on consumer phenology. As expected, under heterogeneous change, phenotypic plasticity is insufficient and thus selection on consumer phenology arises. However, even homogeneous change leads to directional selection on consumer phenology. This is because the consumer reaction norm has historically evolved to be flatter than the resource reaction norm, owing to time lags and imperfect cue reliability. Climate change will therefore lead to increased selection on consumer phenology across a broad range of situations. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Critical oxygen levels and metabolic suppression in oceanic oxygen minimum zones.

PubMed

Seibel, Brad A

2011-01-15

The survival of oceanic organisms in oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) depends on their total oxygen demand and the capacities for oxygen extraction and transport, anaerobic ATP production and metabolic suppression. Anaerobic metabolism and metabolic suppression are required for daytime forays into the most extreme OMZs. Critical oxygen partial pressures are, within a range, evolved to match the minimum oxygen level to which a species is exposed. This fact demands that low oxygen habitats be defined by the biological response to low oxygen rather than by some arbitrary oxygen concentration. A broad comparative analysis of oxygen tolerance facilitates the identification of two oxygen thresholds that may prove useful for policy makers as OMZs expand due to climate change. Between these thresholds, specific physiological adaptations to low oxygen are required of virtually all species. The lower threshold represents a limit to evolved oxygen extraction capacity. Climate change that pushes oxygen concentrations below the lower threshold (~0.8 kPa) will certainly result in a transition from an ecosystem dominated by a diverse midwater fauna to one dominated by diel migrant biota that must return to surface waters at night. Animal physiology and, in particular, the response of animals to expanding hypoxia, is a critical, but understudied, component of biogeochemical cycles and oceanic ecology. Here, I discuss the definition of hypoxia and critical oxygen levels, review adaptations of animals to OMZs and discuss the capacity for, and prevalence of, metabolic suppression as a response to temporary residence in OMZs and the possible consequences of climate change on OMZ ecology.

Sustained Assessment Metadata as a Pathway to Trustworthiness of Climate Science Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Champion, S. M.; Kunkel, K.

2017-12-01

The Sustained Assessment process has produced a suite of climate change reports: The Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3), Regional Surface Climate Conditions in CMIP3 and CMIP5 for the United States: Differences, Similarities, and Implications for the U.S. National Climate Assessment, Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, The State Climate Summaries, as well as the anticipated Climate Science Special Report and Fourth National Climate Assessment. Not only are these groundbreaking reports of climate change science, they are also the first suite of climate science reports to provide access to complex metadata directly connected to the report figures and graphics products. While the basic metadata documentation requirement is federally mandated through a series of federal guidelines as a part of the Information Quality Act, Sustained Assessment products are also deemed Highly Influential Scientific Assessments, which further requires demonstration of the transparency and reproducibility of the content. To meet these requirements, the Technical Support Unit (TSU) for the Sustained Assessment embarked on building a system for not only collecting and documenting metadata to the required standards, but one that also provides consumers unprecedented access to the underlying data and methods. As our process and documentation have evolved, the value of both continue to grow in parallel with the consumer expectation of quality, accessible climate science information. This presentation will detail the how the TSU accomplishes the mandated requirements with their metadata collection and documentation process, as well as the technical solution designed to demonstrate compliance while also providing access to the content for the general public. We will also illustrate how our accessibility platforms guide consumers through the Assessment science at a level of transparency that builds trust and confidence in the report content.

Mainstreaming climate adaptation in the Asia-Pacific: Role of networks and universities in promoting climate literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ling, F. H.; Yasuhara, K.; Tamura, M.; Tabayashi, Y.; Mimura, N.

2011-12-01

As the international climate regime continues to evolve, adaptation has emerged as a key component of responding to climate change. Due to limited scientific, financial, and institutional capacities, as well as perceived competition with multiple priorities, strategies for adaptive measures are not being implemented at the pace needed to address current and future climate risks. Adaptation networks, both global and in the Asia-Pacific region, have formed to overcome the lack of sufficient communication and collaboration among different stakeholders and domains of expertise. In this presentation, we discuss various efforts at Ibaraki University in Japan to integrate technical and social aspects of adaptation into a multidisciplinary effort, to foster synergies among various networks, to clarify the roles of developed and developing countries, and to develop a standard for assessing vulnerability and adaptability across various geographical contexts.

Impact of climate change on hydrological conditions in a tropical West African catchment using an ensemble of climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yira, Yacouba; Diekkrüger, Bernd; Steup, Gero; Yaovi Bossa, Aymar

2017-04-01

This study evaluates climate change impacts on water resources using an ensemble of six regional climate models (RCMs)-global climate models (GCMs) in the Dano catchment (Burkina Faso). The applied climate datasets were performed in the framework of the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) project.

After evaluation of the historical runs of the climate models' ensemble, a statistical bias correction (empirical quantile mapping) was applied to daily precipitation. Temperature and bias corrected precipitation data from the ensemble of RCMs-GCMs was then used as input for the Water flow and balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) to simulate water balance components.

The mean hydrological and climate variables for two periods (1971-2000 and 2021-2050) were compared to assess the potential impact of climate change on water resources up to the middle of the 21st century under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5. The results indicate (i) a clear signal of temperature increase of about 0.1 to 2.6 °C for all members of the RCM-GCM ensemble; (ii) high uncertainty about how the catchment precipitation will evolve over the period 2021-2050; (iii) the applied bias correction method only affected the magnitude of the climate change signal; (iv) individual climate models results lead to opposite discharge change signals; and (v) the results for the RCM-GCM ensemble are too uncertain to give any clear direction for future hydrological development. Therefore, potential increase and decrease in future discharge have to be considered in climate change adaptation strategies in the catchment. The results further underline on the one hand the need for a larger ensemble of projections to properly estimate the impacts of climate change on water resources in the catchment and on the other hand the high uncertainty associated with climate projections for the West African region. A water-energy budget analysis provides further insight into the behavior of the catchment.

Climate Curriculum Modules on Volcanic Eruptions, Geoengineering, and Nuclear Winter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robock, A.

2016-12-01

To support a climate dynamics multidisciplinary curriculum for graduate and senior university students, I will describe proposed on-line modules on volcanic eruptions and climate, geoengineering, and nuclear winter. Each of these topics involves aerosols in the stratosphere and the response of the climate system, but each is distinct, and each is evolving as more research becomes available. While nature can load the stratosphere with sulfate aerosols for several years from large volcanic eruptions, humans could also put sulfate aerosols into the stratosphere on purpose through geoengineering or soot as a result of the fires from a nuclear war. As reported for the first time in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, volcanic eruptions are a natural analog for the climate impacts of potential anthropogenic aerosol injections into the stratosphere, either sulfates from potential attempts to cool the climate to counteract global warming, or smoke that would be produced from fires in cities and industrial targets in a nuclear war. Stratospheric aerosols would change the temperature, precipitation, total insolation, and fraction of diffuse radiation due to their radiative impacts, and could produce more ultraviolet radiation by ozone destruction. Surface ozone concentration could also change by changed transport from the stratosphere as well as changed tropospheric chemistry. There would be two options: 1) Each module would stand alone and could be taught independently, or 2) The volcanic eruptions module would stand alone, and would also serve as a prerequisite for each of the other two modules, which could be taught independently of each other. Each module includes consideration of the physical climate system as well as impacts of the resulting climate change. Geoengineering includes both solar radiation management and carbon dioxide reduction. The geoengineering and nuclear winter modules also include consideration of policy and governance issues. Each module includes a slide set for use in lecturing, links to related resources, and student exercises. The modules will be regularly updated.

The NASA Global Climate Change Education Project: An Integrated Effort to Improve the Teaching and Learning about Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chambers, L. H.; Pippin, M. R.; Welch, S.; Spruill, K.; Matthews, M. J.; Person, C.

2010-12-01

The NASA Global Climate Change Education (GCCE) Project, initiated in 2008, seeks to: - improve the teaching and learning about global climate change in elementary and secondary schools, on college campuses, and through lifelong learning; - increase the number of people, particularly high school and undergraduate students, using NASA Earth observation data, Earth system models, and/or simulations to investigate and analyze global climate change issues; - increase the number of undergraduate students prepared for employment and/or to enter graduate school in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Through an annual solicitation, proposals are requested for projects that address these goals using a variety of approaches. These include using NASA Earth system data, interactive models and/or simulations; providing research experiences for undergraduate or community college students, or for pre- or in-service teachers; or creating long-term teacher professional development experiences. To date, 57 projects have been funded to pursue these goals (22 in 2008, 18 in 2009, and 17 in 2010), each for a 2-3 year period. The vast majority of awards address either teacher professional development, or use of data, models, or simulations; only 7 awards have been made for research experiences. NASA, with assistance from the Virginia Space Grant Consortium, is working to develop these awardees into a synergistic community that works together to maximize its impact. This paper will present examples of collaborations that are evolving within this developing community. It will also introduce the opportunities available in fiscal year 2011, when a change in emphasis is expected for the project as it moves within the NASA Office of Education Minority University Research and Education Program (MUREP).

NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS AFFECTING GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CLIMATE. A REPORT OF THE NEW ENGLAND REGIONAL ASSESSMENT GROUP FOR THE US GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH PROGRAM

EPA Science Inventory

With the advent of Earth-orbiting satellites to monitor our planet and spacecraft that study the sun, an active international joint project to monitor the Sun?Earth (Solar Terrestrial) environment has evolved. Coupled with an ever increasing computational capability, we are now a...

Carbon tradeoffs of restoration and provision of endangered species habitat in a fire-maintained forest

Treesearch

Katherine L. Martin; Matthew D. Hurteau; Bruce A. Hungate; George W. Koch; Malcolm P. North

2015-01-01

Forests are a significant part of the global carbon cycle and are increasingly viewed as tools for mitigating climate change. Natural disturbances, such as fire, can reduce carbon storage. However, many forests and dependent species evolved with frequent fire as an integral ecosystem process. We used a landscape forest simulation model to evaluate the effects of...

"Capping Off" the Development of Graduate Capabilities in the Final Semester Unit for Biological Science Students: Review and Recommendations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Firn, Jennifer

2015-01-01

Biology is the most rapidly evolving scientific field of the 21st century. Biology graduates must be able to integrate concepts and collaborate outside their discipline to solve the most pressing questions of our time, e.g. world hunger, malnutrition, climate change, infectious disease and biosecurity. University educators are attempting to…

Individual Differences in Students' Complex Problem Solving Skills: How They Evolve and What They Imply

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wüstenberg, Sascha; Greiff, Samuel; Vainikainen, Mari-Pauliina; Murphy, Kevin

2016-01-01

Changes in the demands posed by increasingly complex workplaces in the 21st century have raised the importance of nonroutine skills such as complex problem solving (CPS). However, little is known about the antecedents and outcomes of CPS, especially with regard to malleable external factors such as classroom climate. To investigate the relations…

The Diffusion of Governance Reform in American Public Education: An Event History Analysis of State Takeover and Charter School Laws

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wong, Kenneth K.; Langevin, Warren E.

2005-01-01

The political tradition of local school governance predates the existence of the United States. Yet the most prominent mechanisms for the exercise of local discretion have evolved considerably from their colonial origins in response to the changing political climate of the nation, constituent demands, and legislative innovation. Recognizing the…

Groundwater nitrate concentration evolution under climate change and agricultural adaptation scenarios: Prince Edward Island, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paradis, D.; Vigneault, H.; Lefebvre, R.; Savard, M. M.; Ballard, J.-M.; Qian, B.

2015-08-01

Nitrate (N-NO3) concentration in groundwater, the sole source of potable water in Prince Edward Island (PEI, Canada), currently exceeds the 10 mg L-1 (N-NO3) health threshold for drinking water in 6 % of domestic wells. Increasing climatic and socio-economic pressures on PEI agriculture may further deteriorate groundwater quality. This study assesses how groundwater nitrate concentrations could evolve due to the forecasted climate change and its related potential changes in agricultural practices. For this purpose, a tridimensional numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model was developed for the aquifer system of the entire Island (5660 km2). A number of different groundwater flow and mass transport simulations were made to evaluate the potential impact of the projected climate change and agricultural adaptation. According to the simulations for year 2050, N-NO3 concentration would increase due to two main causes: (1) the progressive attainment of steady-state conditions related to present-day nitrogen loadings, and (2) the increase in nitrogen loadings due to changes in agricultural practices provoked by future climatic conditions. The combined effects of equilibration with loadings, climate and agricultural adaptation would lead to a 25 to 32 % increase in N-NO3 concentration over the Island aquifer system. Climate change alone (practices maintained at their current level) would contribute only 0 to 6 % to that increase according to the various climate scenarios. Moreover, simulated trends in groundwater N-NO3 concentration suggest that an increased number of domestic wells (more than doubling) would exceed the nitrate drinking water criteria. This study underlines the need to develop and apply better agricultural management practices to ensure sustainability of long-term groundwater resources. The simulations also show that observable benefits from positive changes in agricultural practices would be delayed in time due to the slow dynamics of nitrate transport within the aquifer system.

Projected timing of perceivable changes in climate extremes for terrestrial and marine ecosystems.

PubMed

Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew; Horton, Daniel E

2018-05-26

Human and natural systems have adapted to and evolved within historical climatic conditions. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter these conditions such that onset of unprecedented climatic extremes will outpace evolutionary and adaptive capabilities. To assess whether and when future climate extremes exceed their historical windows of variability within impact-relevant socioeconomic, geopolitical, and ecological domains, we investigate the timing of perceivable changes (time of emergence; TOE) for 18 magnitude-, frequency-, and severity-based extreme temperature (10) and precipitation (8) indices using both multimodel and single-model multirealization ensembles. Under a high-emission scenario, we find that the signal of frequency- and severity-based temperature extremes is projected to rise above historical noise earliest in midlatitudes, whereas magnitude-based temperature extremes emerge first in low and high latitudes. Precipitation extremes demonstrate different emergence patterns, with severity-based indices first emerging over midlatitudes, and magnitude- and frequency-based indices emerging earliest in low and high latitudes. Applied to impact-relevant domains, simulated TOE patterns suggest (a) unprecedented consecutive dry day occurrence in >50% of 14 terrestrial biomes and 12 marine realms prior to 2100, (b) earlier perceivable changes in climate extremes in countries with lower per capita GDP, and (c) emergence of severe and frequent heat extremes well-before 2030 for the 590 most populous urban centers. Elucidating extreme-metric and domain-type TOE heterogeneities highlights the challenges adaptation planners face in confronting the consequences of elevated twenty-first century radiative forcing. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ice-Sheet Dynamics and Millennial-Scale Climate Variability in the North Atlantic across the Middle Pleistocene Transition (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hodell, D. A.; Nicholl, J.

2013-12-01

During the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT), the climate system evolved from a more linear response to insolation forcing in the '41-kyr world' to one that was decidedly non-linear in the '100-kyr world'. Smaller ice sheets in the early Pleistocene gave way to larger ice sheets in the late Pleistocene with an accompanying change in ice sheet dynamics. We studied Sites U1308 (49° 52.7'N, 24° 14.3'W; 3871 m) and U1304 (53° 3.4'N, 33° 31.8'W; 3024 m) in the North Atlantic to determine how ice sheet dynamics and millennial-scale climate variability evolved as glacial boundary conditions changed across the MPT. The frequency of ice-rafted detritus (IRD) in the North Atlantic was greater during glacial stages prior to 650 ka (MIS 16), reflecting more frequent crossing of an ice volume threshold when the climate system spent more time in the 'intermediate ice volume' window, resulting in persistent millennial scale variability. The rarity of Heinrich Events containing detrital carbonate and more frequent occurrence of IRD events prior to 650 ka may indicate the presence of 'low-slung, slippery ice sheets' that flowed more readily than their post-MPT counterparts (Bailey et al., 2010). Ice volume surpassed a critical threshold across the MPT that permitted ice sheets to survive boreal summer insolation maxima, thereby increasing ice volume and thickness, lengthening glacial cycles, and activating the dynamical processes responsible for Laurentide Ice Sheet instability in the region of Hudson Strait (i.e., Heinrich events). The excess ice volume during post-MPT glacial maxima provided a large, unstable reservoir of freshwater to be released to the North Atlantic during glacial terminations with the potential to perturb Atlantic Meridional Overtunring Circulation. We speculate that orbital- and millennial-scale variability co-evolved across the MPT and the interaction of processes on orbital and suborbital time scales gave rise to the changing patterns of glacial-interglacial cycles through the Quaternary. Bailey, I., Bolton, C.T., DeConto, R.M., Pollard, D., Schiebel, R. and Wilson, P.A. (2010) A low threshold for North Atlantic ice rafting from "low-slung slippery" late Pliocene ice sheets. Paleoceanography, 25, PA1212-[14pp]. (doi:10.1029/2009PA001736).

Constraints and Opportunities in GCM Model Development

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schmidt, Gavin; Clune, Thomas

2010-01-01

Over the past 30 years climate models have evolved from relatively simple representations of a few atmospheric processes to complex multi-disciplinary system models which incorporate physics from bottom of the ocean to the mesopause and are used for seasonal to multi-million year timescales. Computer infrastructure over that period has gone from punchcard mainframes to modern parallel clusters. Constraints of working within an ever evolving research code mean that most software changes must be incremental so as not to disrupt scientific throughput. Unfortunately, programming methodologies have generally not kept pace with these challenges, and existing implementations now present a heavy and growing burden on further model development as well as limiting flexibility and reliability. Opportunely, advances in software engineering from other disciplines (e.g. the commercial software industry) as well as new generations of powerful development tools can be incorporated by the model developers to incrementally and systematically improve underlying implementations and reverse the long term trend of increasing development overhead. However, these methodologies cannot be applied blindly, but rather must be carefully tailored to the unique characteristics of scientific software development. We will discuss the need for close integration of software engineers and climate scientists to find the optimal processes for climate modeling.

Aerosols and Clouds: In Cahoots to Change Climate

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berg, Larry

Key knowledge gaps persist despite advances in the scientific understanding of how aerosols and clouds evolve and affect climate. The Two-Column Aerosol Project, or TCAP, was designed to provide a detailed set of observations to tackle this area of unknowns. Led by PNNL atmospheric scientist Larry Berg, ARM's Climate Research Facility was deployed in Cape Cod, Massachusetts for the 12-month duration of TCAP, which came to a close in June 2013. "We are developing new tools to look at particle chemistry, like our mass spectrometer used in TCAP that can tell us the individual chemical composition of an aerosol," saidmore » Berg. "Then, we'll run our models and compare it with the data that we have to make sure we're getting correct answers and make sure our climate models are reflecting the best information."« less

Aerosols and Clouds: In Cahoots to Change Climate

ScienceCinema

Berg, Larry

2018-01-16

Key knowledge gaps persist despite advances in the scientific understanding of how aerosols and clouds evolve and affect climate. The Two-Column Aerosol Project, or TCAP, was designed to provide a detailed set of observations to tackle this area of unknowns. Led by PNNL atmospheric scientist Larry Berg, ARM's Climate Research Facility was deployed in Cape Cod, Massachusetts for the 12-month duration of TCAP, which came to a close in June 2013. "We are developing new tools to look at particle chemistry, like our mass spectrometer used in TCAP that can tell us the individual chemical composition of an aerosol," said Berg. "Then, we'll run our models and compare it with the data that we have to make sure we're getting correct answers and make sure our climate models are reflecting the best information."

Historical ecology reveals landscape transformation coincident with cultural development in central Italy since the Roman Period.

PubMed

Mensing, Scott A; Schoolman, Edward M; Tunno, Irene; Noble, Paula J; Sagnotti, Leonardo; Florindo, Fabio; Piovesan, Gianluca

2018-02-01

Knowledge of the direct role humans have had in changing the landscape requires the perspective of historical and archaeological sources, as well as climatic and ecologic processes, when interpreting paleoecological records. People directly impact land at the local scale and land use decisions are strongly influenced by local sociopolitical priorities that change through time. A complete picture of the potential drivers of past environmental change must include a detailed and integrated analysis of evolving sociopolitical priorities, climatic change and ecological processes. However, there are surprisingly few localities that possess high-quality historical, archeological and high-resolution paleoecologic datasets. We present a high resolution 2700-year pollen record from central Italy and interpret it in relation to archival documents and archaeological data to reconstruct the relationship between changing sociopolitical conditions, and their effect on the landscape. We found that: (1) abrupt environmental change was more closely linked to sociopolitical and demographic transformation than climate change; (2) landscape changes reflected the new sociopolitical priorities and persisted until the sociopolitical conditions shifted; (3) reorganization of new plant communities was very rapid, on the order of decades not centuries; and (4) legacies of forest management adopted by earlier societies continue to influence ecosystem services today.

Did 250 years of forest management in Europe cool the climate?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naudts, Kim; Chen, Yiying; McGrath, Matthew; Ryder, James; Valade, Aude; Otto, Juliane; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan

2016-04-01

Over the past two centuries European forest has evolved from being an over-exploited source of timber to a sustainably managed provider of diverse ecosystem services. Although this transition is often perceived as exemplary in resources management, the loss of unmanaged forest, the progressive shift from traditional coppice forestry to the current production-oriented management and the massive conversion of broadleaved to coniferous species are typically overlooked when assessing the impact of land-use change on climate. Here we present a study that addressed this gap by: (1) developing and reparameterizing the ORCHIDEE land surface model to simulate the biogeochemical and biophysical effects of forest management, (2) reconstructing the land-use history of Europe, accounting for changes in forest management and land cover. The model was coupled to the atmospheric model LMDz in a factorial simulation experiment to attribute climate change to global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission and European land-use change since 1750 (i.e., afforestation, wood extraction and species conversion). We find that, despite considerable afforestation, Europe's forests failed to realize a net removal of CO2 from the atmosphere due to wood extraction. Moreover, biophysical changes due to the conversion of deciduous forest into coniferous forest have offset mitigation through the carbon cycle. Thus, two and a half centuries of forest management in Europe did not mitigate climate warming (Naudts et al., 2016). Naudts, K., Chen, Y., McGrath, M.J., Ryder, J., Valade, A., Otto, J., Luyssaert, S, Europe's forest management did not mitigate climate warming, Science, Accepted.

Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling in the Northern Hemisphere analyzed with climate network measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirsch, C.; Donner, R. V.

2017-12-01

The Stratosphere-Troposphere Coupling (STC) is a climate phenomenon providing additional predictive skills for extended-range weather forecasting. The variability of the winter stratospheric polar vortex can particularly influence the tropospheric circulation and, hence, mid-to-high latitude weather for a few weeks or months by strong or weak vortex signals propagating downward with time. This study investigates the STC with climate networks. For this purpose, we use the geopotential height field between 20°N and 90°N at 37 vertical levels from the ERA-Interim reanalysis data from 1979 until 2016. There are two main research questions: (i) Is it possible to define a new, more robust index of the variability of the polar vortex than the currently used NAM index by exploiting climate network properties? (ii) What additional information on STC is provided by climate networks? By calculating the transitivity of evolving climate networks at 10 hPa height, we obtain a new characteristic measure for tracing evolving patterns in stratospheric variability. A higher value than the baseline transitivity indicates an anomalous (strong or weak) polar vortex. Displayed for all vertical levels, the transitivity also exhibits the downward propagation of pressure anomalies into the troposphere. Beyond these findings, we observe additional peaks in the transitivity that does not coincide with weak and strong vortex events. These peaks could be used for identifying the change between winter and summer circulation, also called final warming. We will discuss how these results could potentially affect the predictability of tropospheric weather during boreal spring.

How to Quantify Human-environment Interactions in the Past: A Global Historical Land Use Data Set for the Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein Goldewijk, K.

2015-12-01

Land use plays an important role in the climate system. Many ecosystem processes are directly or indirectly climate driven, and together with human driven land use changes, they determine how the land surface will evolve through time. To assess the effects of land cover changes on the climate system, models are required which are capable of simulating interactions between the involved components of the Earth system. Since driving forces for global environmental change differ among regions, a geographically (spatially) explicit modeling approach is called for, so that it can be incorporated in global and regional (climate and/or biophysical) change models in order to enhance our understanding of the underlying processes and thus improving future projections.Some researchers suggest that mankind has shifted from living in the Holocene (~emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (~humans capable of changing the Earth' atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land use changes (e.g. the Black Plague in the 14th century and the aftermath of the Colombian Exchange in the 16th century), some believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time. There are still many uncertainties and gaps in our knowledge about the importance of land use (change) in the global biogeochemical cycle, and it is crucial that researchers from other disciplines are involved in decreasing the uncertainties.Thus, integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleo-environmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. Here I present a tool for such long term global change studies; it is the latest update (v 3.2) of the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE), which tries to incorporate many of these cross-disciplinary records and create thus new and more accurate estimates of the underlying demographic and agricultural driving factors for the whole Holocene. Estimates include population, cropland, pasture, rangeland, irrigation, rice, and built-up area.

Food security in a changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pulwarty, Roger; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, James

2012-01-01

By 2080 the effects of climate change—on heat waves, floods, sea level rise, and drought—could push an additional 600 million people into malnutrition and increase the number of people facing water scarcity by 1.8 billion. The precise impacts will, however, strongly depend on socioeconomic conditions such as local markets and food import dependence. In the near term, two factors are also changing the nature of food security: (1) rapid urbanization, with the proportion of the global population living in urban areas expanding from 13 percent in 1975 to greater than 50 percent at present, and (2) trade and domestic market liberalization since 1993, which has promoted removal of import controls, deregulation of prices, and the loss of preferential markets for many small economies. Over the last two years, the worst drought in decades has devastated eastern Africa. The resulting food-security crisis has affected roughly 13 million people and has reminded us that there is still a long way to go in addressing current climate-related risks. In the face of such profound changes and uncertainties, our approaches to food security must evolve. In this article, we describe four key elements that, in our view, will be essential to the success of efforts to address the linked challenges of food security and climate change.

Recent changes in county-level corn yield variability in the United States from observations and crop models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong

The United States is responsible for 35% and 60% of global corn supply and exports. Enhanced supply stability through a reduction in the year-to-year variability of US corn yield would greatly benefit global food security. Important in this regard is to understand how corn yield variability has evolved geographically in the history and how it relates to climatic and non-climatic factors. Results showed that year-to-year variation of US corn yield has decreased significantly during 1980-2010, mainly in Midwest Corn Belt, Nebraska and western arid regions. Despite the country-scale decreasing variability, corn yield variability exhibited an increasing trend in South Dakota,more » Texas and Southeast growing regions, indicating the importance of considering spatial scales in estimating yield variability. The observed pattern is partly reproduced by process-based crop models, simulating larger areas experiencing increasing variability and underestimating the magnitude of decreasing variability. And 3 out of 11 models even produced a differing sign of change from observations. Hence, statistical model which produces closer agreement with observations is used to explore the contribution of climatic and non-climatic factors to the changes in yield variability. It is found that climate variability dominate the change trends of corn yield variability in the Midwest Corn Belt, while the ability of climate variability in controlling yield variability is low in southeastern and western arid regions. Irrigation has largely reduced the corn yield variability in regions (e.g. Nebraska) where separate estimates of irrigated and rain-fed corn yield exist, demonstrating the importance of non-climatic factors in governing the changes in corn yield variability. The results highlight the distinct spatial patterns of corn yield variability change as well as its influencing factors at the county scale. I also caution the use of process-based crop models, which have substantially underestimated the change trend of corn yield variability, in projecting its future changes.« less

Climate Change Adaptation in the Western U.S.: the Case for Dynamic Rule Curves in Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.; Hamlet, A. F.; Burges, S. J.

2008-12-01

Climate change in the Western U.S. will bring systematic hydrologic changes affecting many water resources systems. Successful adaptation to these changes, which will be ongoing through the 21st century, will require the 'rebalancing' of competing system objectives such as water supply, flood control, hydropower production, and environmental services in response to hydrologic (and other) changes. Although fixed operating policies for the operation of reservoirs has been a traditional approach to water management in the 20th century, the rapid pace of projected climate shifts (~0.5 F per decade), and the prohibitive costs of recursive policy intervention to mitigate impacts, suggest that more sophisticated approaches will be needed to cope with climate change on a long term basis. The use of 'dynamic rule curves' is an approach that maintains some of the key characteristics of current water management practice (reservoir rule curves) while avoiding many of the fundamental drawbacks of traditional water resources management strategies in a non-stationary climate. In this approach, water resources systems are optimized for each operational period using ensemble streamflow and/or water demand forecasts. The ensemble of optimized reservoir storage traces are then analyzed to produce a set of unique reservoir rule curves for each operational period reflecting the current state of the system. The potential advantage of this approach is that hydrologic changes associated with climate change (such as systematically warmer temperatures) can be captured explicitly in operational hydrologic forecasts, which would in turn inform the optimized reservoir management solutions, creating water resources systems that are largely 'self tending' as the climate system evolves. Furthermore, as hydrologic forecasting systems improve (e.g. in response to improved ENSO forecasting or other scientific advances), so does the performance of reservoir operations. An example of the approach is given for flood control in the Columbia River basin.

Climate change and intertidal wetlands.

PubMed

Ross, Pauline M; Adam, Paul

2013-03-19

Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause-the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the "squeeze" experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change.

Climate Change and Intertidal Wetlands

PubMed Central

Ross, Pauline M.; Adam, Paul

2013-01-01

Intertidal wetlands are recognised for the provision of a range of valued ecosystem services. The two major categories of intertidal wetlands discussed in this contribution are saltmarshes and mangrove forests. Intertidal wetlands are under threat from a range of anthropogenic causes, some site-specific, others acting globally. Globally acting factors include climate change and its driving cause—the increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. One direct consequence of climate change will be global sea level rise due to thermal expansion of the oceans, and, in the longer term, the melting of ice caps and glaciers. The relative sea level rise experienced at any one locality will be affected by a range of factors, as will the response of intertidal wetlands to the change in sea level. If relative sea level is rising and sedimentation within intertidal wetlands does not keep pace, then there will be loss of intertidal wetlands from the seaward edge, with survival of the ecosystems only possible if they can retreat inland. When retreat is not possible, the wetland area will decline in response to the “squeeze” experienced. Any changes to intertidal wetland vegetation, as a consequence of climate change, will have flow on effects to biota, while changes to biota will affect intertidal vegetation. Wetland biota may respond to climate change by shifting in distribution and abundance landward, evolving or becoming extinct. In addition, impacts from ocean acidification and warming are predicted to affect the fertilisation, larval development, growth and survival of intertidal wetland biota including macroinvertebrates, such as molluscs and crabs, and vertebrates such as fish and potentially birds. The capacity of organisms to move and adapt will depend on their life history characteristics, phenotypic plasticity, genetic variability, inheritability of adaptive characteristics, and the predicted rates of environmental change. PMID:24832670

Quantifying the scale- and process- dependent reorganization of landscape under climatic change: inferences from an experimental landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, A.; Tejedor, A.; Grimaud, J. L.; Zaliapin, I. V.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

2016-12-01

Knowledge of the dynamics of evolving landscapes in terms of their geomorphic and topologic re-organization in response to changing climatic or tectonic forcing is of scientific and practical interest. Although several studies have addressed the large-scale response (e.g., change in mean relief), studies on the smaller-scale drainage pattern re-organization and quantification of landscape vulnerability to the timing, magnitude, and frequency of changing forcing are lacking. The reason is the absence of data for such an analysis. To that goal, a series of controlled laboratory experiments were conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory of the University of Minnesota to study the effect of changing precipitation patterns on landscape evolution at the short and long-time scales. High resolution digital elevation (DEM) both in space and time were measured for a range of rainfall patterns and uplift rates. Results from our study show a distinct signature of the precipitation increase on the probabilistic and geometrical structure of landscape features, evident in widening and deepening of channels and valleys, change in drainage patterns within sub-basins and change in the space-time structure of erosional and depositional events. A spatially explicit analysis of the locus of these erosional and depositional events suggests a regime shift, during the onset of the transient state, from supply-limited to transport-limited fluvial channels. We document a characteristic scale-dependent signature of erosion at steady state (which we term the "E50-area curve") and show that during reorganization, its evolving shape reflects process and scales of geomorphic change. Finally, we document changes in the longitudinal river profiles, in response to increased precipitation rate, with the formation of abrupt gradient (knickpoints) that migrate upstream as time proceeds.

Climate Change and Public Health Surveillance: Toward a Comprehensive Strategy.

PubMed

Moulton, Anthony Drummond; Schramm, Paul John

Climate change poses a host of serious threats to human health that robust public health surveillance systems can help address. It is unknown, however, whether existing surveillance systems in the United States have adequate capacity to serve that role, nor what actions may be needed to develop adequate capacity. Our goals were to review efforts to assess and strengthen the capacity of public health surveillance systems to support health-related adaptation to climate change in the United States and to determine whether additional efforts are warranted. Building on frameworks issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we specified 4 core components of public health surveillance capacity relevant to climate change health threats. Using standard methods, we next identified and analyzed multiple assessments of the existing, relevant capacity of public health surveillance systems as well as attempts to improve that capacity. We also received information from selected national public health associations. Multiple federal, state, and local public health agencies, professional associations, and researchers have made valuable, initial efforts to assess and strengthen surveillance capacity. These efforts, however, have been made by entities working independently and without the benefit of a shared conceptual framework or strategy. Their principal focus has been on identifying suitable indicators and data sources largely to the exclusion of other core components of surveillance capacity. A more comprehensive and strategic approach is needed to build the public health surveillance capacity required to protect the health of Americans in a world of rapidly evolving climate change. Public health practitioners and policy makers at all levels can use the findings and issues reviewed in this article as they lead design and execution of a coordinated, multisector strategic plan to create and sustain that capacity.

Climate Change and Public Health Surveillance: Toward a Comprehensive Strategy

PubMed Central

Moulton, Anthony Drummond; Schramm, Paul John

2017-01-01

Context Climate change poses a host of serious threats to human health that robust public health surveillance systems can help address. It is unknown, however, whether existing surveillance systems in the United States have adequate capacity to serve that role, nor what actions may be needed to develop adequate capacity. Objective Our goals were to review efforts to assess and strengthen the capacity of public health surveillance systems to support health-related adaptation to climate change in the United States and to determine whether additional efforts are warranted. Methods Building on frameworks issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we specified 4 core components of public health surveillance capacity relevant to climate change health threats. Using standard methods, we next identified and analyzed multiple assessments of the existing, relevant capacity of public health surveillance systems as well as attempts to improve that capacity. We also received information from selected national public health associations. Findings Multiple federal, state, and local public health agencies, professional associations, and researchers have made valuable, initial efforts to assess and strengthen surveillance capacity. These efforts, however, have been made by entities working independently and without the benefit of a shared conceptual framework or strategy. Their principal focus has been on identifying suitable indicators and data sources largely to the exclusion of other core components of surveillance capacity. Conclusions A more comprehensive and strategic approach is needed to build the public health surveillance capacity required to protect the health of Americans in a world of rapidly evolving climate change. Public health practitioners and policy makers at all levels can use the findings and issues reviewed in this article as they lead design and execution of a coordinated, multisector strategic plan to create and sustain that capacity. PMID:28169865

Adaptive genetic potential of coniferous forest tree species under climate change: implications for sustainable forest management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mihai, Georgeta; Birsan, Marius-Victor; Teodosiu, Maria; Dumitrescu, Alexandru; Daia, Mihai; Mirancea, Ionel; Ivanov, Paula; Alin, Alexandru

2017-04-01

Mountain ecosystems are extremely vulnerable to climate change. The real potential for adaptation depends upon the existence of a wide genetic diversity in trees populations, upon the adaptive genetic variation, respectively. Genetic diversity offers the guarantee that forest species can survive, adapt and evolve under the influence of changing environmental conditions. The aim of this study is to evaluate the genetic diversity and adaptive genetic potential of two local species - Norway spruce and European silver fir - in the context of regional climate change. Based on data from a long-term provenance experiments network and climate variables spanning over more than 50 years, we have investigated the impact of climatic factors on growth performance and adaptation of tree species. Our results indicate that climatic and geographic factors significantly affect forest site productivity. Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation amount were found to be statistically significant explanatory variables. Combining the additive genetic model with the analysis of nuclear markers we obtained different images of the genetic structure of tree populations. As genetic indicators we used: gene frequencies, genetic diversity, genetic differentiation, genetic variance, plasticity. Spatial genetic analyses have allowed identifying the genetic centers holding high genetic diversity which will be valuable sources of gene able to buffer the negative effects of future climate change. Correlations between the marginal populations and in the optimal vegetation, between the level of genetic diversity and ecosystem stability, will allow the assessment of future risks arising from current genetic structure. Therefore, the strategies for sustainable forest management have to rely on the adaptive genetic variation and local adaptation of the valuable genetic resources. This work was realized within the framework of the project GENCLIM (Evaluating the adaptive potential of the main coniferous species for a sustainable forest management in the context of climate change), financed by the Executive Agency for Higher Education, Research, Development and Innovation Funding, grant number PN-II-PC-PCCA-2013-4-0695.

The Isotopic Record of Elevation Thresholds in Continental Plateaus to Atmospheric Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mulch, A.; Chamberlain, C. P.; Graham, S. A.; Teyssier, C.; Cosca, M. A.

2011-12-01

High-elevation orogenic plateaus and mountain ranges exert a strong control on global climate and precipitation patterns and interact with lithospheric and upper mantle tectonic processes as well as atmospheric circulation. Reconstructing the history of surface elevation thus not only provides a critical link between erosional and tectonic processes but also ties Earth surface processes to the long-term climate history of our planet. This interaction, however, has important implications when using stable isotopes (O, H) as proxies for landscape and terrestrial climate evolution as interacting land surface properties (elevation, relief, vegetation cover) and atmospheric circulation patterns (upstream moisture path) may attain threshold conditions that can cloak or amplify the impact of topography on isotopes in precipitation. A large number of stable isotope studies in lacustrine and pedogenic environments of intermontane basins record the isotopic and sedimentologic fingerprint of the evolving landscape of the Cenozoic western North American Cordillera. In general we observe the onset of strong oxygen isotope in precipitation gradients along the eastward and westward flanks of the Cordilleran orogen and associated 18O-depleted moisture within the Cordilleran hinterland to develop no later than 50-55 Ma in British Columbia and Washington, 49 Ma in Montana, and 39-40 Ma in Nevada. However, some of these shifts to very low oxygen isotope compositions in meteoric water occur at rates that by far exceed those that could be attributed to tectonic surface uplift alone. Here we present a multi-proxy approach from the Elko Basin (NV) that ties stable and radiogenic tracers of landscape evolution with high resolution Ar-Ar geochronology. In pedogenic and lacustrine deposits of the Elko basin we observe a change in oxygen isotope ratios that is far too large (6-8 %) and rapid (<200 000 a) to be solely due to changes in elevation. Rather we suggest that the combined effects of developing topography and relief and changing global climate conditions during the Mid Eocene climatic optimum interacted to change atmospheric moisture transport. We suggest that such rapid changes in rainfall composition may be relatively common in evolving plateau regions once critical relief and elevation conditions are attained and caution against using stable isotope paleoaltimetry in regions with relatively poor age control where such effects may easily be mistaken as changes in absolute paleoelevation of the plateau region. On the other hand, such highly resolved terrestrial isotope records provide extremely valuable information when trying to recover how landscape evolution interacted with atmospheric moisture transport across the continents and the terrestrial biosphere during times of paleoclimate change.

Analyzing the Response of Climate Perturbations to (Tropical) Cyclones using the WRF Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tewari, M.; Mittal, R.; Radhakrishnan, C.; Cipriani, J.; Watson, C.

2015-12-01

An analysis of global climate models shows considerable changes in the intensity and characteristics of future, warm climate cyclones. At regional scales, deviations in cyclone characteristics are often derived using idealized perturbations in the humidity, temperature and surface conditions. In this work, a more realistic approach is adopted by applying climate perturbations from the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4) to ERA-interim data to generate the initial and boundary conditions for future climate simulations. The climate signal perturbations are generated from the differences in 21 years of mean data from CCSM4 with representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) for the periods: (a) 2070-2090 (future climate), (b) 2025-2045 (near-future climate) and (c) 1985-2005 (current climate). Four individual cyclone cases are simulated with and without climate perturbations using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with a nested configuration. Each cyclone is characterized by variations in intensity, landfall location, precipitation and societal damage. To calculate societal damage, we use the recently introduced Cyclone Damage Potential (CDP) index evolved from the Willis Hurricane Index (WHI). As CDP has been developed for general societal applications, this work should provide useful insights for resilience analyses and industry (e.g., re-insurance).

Meeting the Regional Climate Information Needs of Decision Makers: The CORDEX Framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asrar, G. R.; Jones, C.; Giorgi, F.

2011-12-01

Regional Climate Downscaling (RCD), both dynamical (e.g. regional climate modeling) and statistical, is an important approach to produce fine scale climate information for use in impact assessment and adaptation/mitigation studies and practices. RCD techniques have evolved significantly over the last decade, however a coherent and wide picture of regional climate change based on RCD products is still not available and the potentials, limitations and uncertainties of RCD methods need to be better understood by the user community. In order to address these issues a new initiative has been launched under the WCRP auspices, referred to as Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment, or CORDEX. The aim of CORDEX is to bring together the international RCD community to assess different RCD techniques, recommend best practices and produce a next generation set of RCD-based projections of climate change for regions world-wide. This will involve close interactions between the RCD, global climate modeling, and end users communities. This paper will describe the motivations and design of the first phase of the CORDEX framework, which has a priority focus on Africa, along with the steps that are envisioned to achieve the CORDEX goals within the time framework of the Fifth IPCC assessment report. Some early results for Africa will be presented, together with a short summary of the CORDEX activities in Asia, Americas and other regions of the world.

Global climate simulations with the A1F1 scenario for 2000-2100: Meltwater, temperature and river flow impacts in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erickson, D. J.; Branstetter, M. L.; Wilbanks, T. J.; Ganguly, A. R.; Hoffman, F. M.; King, A. W.; Buja, L.; Panwar, T. S.

2008-05-01

Climate simulations based on the assumptions implicit in the SRES A1F1 scenario for the period 2000-2100 using CCSM3 are analyzed. We find temperature increases of 3-9oC over Northern India by the end of this century. We will discuss the implications and resulting alterations of the hydrologic cycle as the climate evolves from 2000-2100. In particular, we will assess the changes in the surface latent and sensible heat energy budget, the Indian regional water budgets including trends in the timing and duration of the Indian monsoon and the resulting impacts on mean river flow and hydroelectric power generation potential. These analyses will also be examined within the context of heat index, droughts, floods and related estimates of societal robustness and resiliency. We will compare our new insights with the existing literature. Climate simulations based on the SRES A2 and B1 scenarios forced with land cover have indicated increased cloud cover and precipitation, resulting in decreased incident radiation and higher latent heat fluxes, in India during June, July and August by 2050 (Feddema et al., 2005). Analyses of historical records in the context of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall (IMR) have suggested an evolving relation of IMR with natural climate variability caused by El Nino events (Krishna Kumar et al., 2006), studied the combined effects of natural climate variability and global warming (Kripalini et al., 2003) on IMR, as well as demonstrated an increasing trend of extreme rain events in a warming environment (Goswami et al., 2006). In addition, the vulnerability of the Indian agriculture sector to climate change was analyzed and mapped at district-levels by combining with multiple global stressors (O'Brien et al., 2004). [[References::: (1) Feddema, J.J., Oleson, K.W., Bonan, G.B., Mearns, L.O., Buja, L.E., Meehl, G.A., and W.M. Washington (2005): The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates, Science, 310 (5754): 1674-1678, 9 December.... (2) Goswami, B.N., Venugopal, V., Sengupta, D., Madhusoodanan, and P.K. Xavier (2006): Increasing trend of extreme rain events over India in a warming environment, Science, 314 (5804): 1442-1445, 1 December.... (3) Kripalini, R.H., Kulkarni, A., Sabade, S.S., and M.L. Khandekar (2003): Indian monsoon variability in a global warming scenario, Natural Hazards, 29: 189-206.... (4) Krishna Kumar, M., Rajagolapan, B., Hoerling, M., Bates, G., and M. Cane (2006): Unraveling the mystery of Indian Monsoon failure during El Nino, Science, 314 (5796): 115-119, 6 October.... (5) O'Brien, K., Leichenko, R., Kelkar, U., Venema, H., Aandhal, G., Tompkins, H., Javed, A., Bhadwal, S., Barg, S., Nygaard, L., and J. West (2004): Mapping vulnerability to multiple stressors: climate change and globalization in India, Global Environmental Change, 14: 303-313.

A Generalized Framework for Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ragno, E.; Cheng, L.; Sadegh, M.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

Empirical trends in climate variables including precipitation, temperature, snow-water equivalent at regional to continental scales are evidence of changes in climate over time. The evolving climate conditions and human activity-related factors such as urbanization and population growth can exert further changes in weather and climate extremes. As a result, the scientific community faces an increasing demand for updated appraisal of the time-varying climate extremes. The purpose of this study is to offer a robust and flexible statistical tool for non-stationary extreme value analysis which can better characterize the severity and likelihood of extreme climatic variables. This is critical to ensure a more resilient environment in a changing climate. Following the positive feedback on the first version of Non-Stationary Extreme Value Analysis (NEVA) Toolbox by Cheng at al. 2014, we present an improved version, i.e. NEVA2.0. The upgraded version herein builds upon a newly-developed hybrid evolution Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach for numerical parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment. This addition leads to a more robust uncertainty estimates of return levels, return periods, and risks of climatic extremes under both stationary and non-stationary assumptions. Moreover, NEVA2.0 is flexible in incorporating any user-specified covariate other than the default time-covariate (e.g., CO2 emissions, large scale climatic oscillation patterns). The new feature will allow users to examine non-stationarity of extremes induced by physical conditions that underlie the extreme events (e.g. antecedent soil moisture deficit, large-scale climatic teleconnections, urbanization). In addition, the new version offers an option to generate stationary and/or non-stationary rainfall Intensity - Duration - Frequency (IDF) curves that are widely used for risk assessment and infrastructure design. Finally, a Graphical User Interface (GUI) of the package is provided, making NEVA accessible to a broader audience.

Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

2013-12-01

Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

Cal-Adapt: California's Climate Data Resource and Interactive Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, N.; Mukhtyar, S.; Wilhelm, S.; Galey, B.; Lehmer, E.

2016-12-01

Cal-Adapt is a web-based application that provides an interactive toolkit and information clearinghouse to help agencies, communities, local planners, resource managers, and the public understand climate change risks and impacts at the local level. The website offers interactive, visually compelling, and useful data visualization tools that show how climate change might affect California using downscaled continental climate data. Cal-Adapt is supporting California's Fourth Climate Change Assessment through providing access to the wealth of modeled and observed data and adaption-related information produced by California's scientific community. The site has been developed by UC Berkeley's Geospatial Innovation Facility (GIF) in collaboration with the California Energy Commission's (CEC) Research Program. The Cal-Adapt website allows decision makers, scientists and residents of California to turn research results and climate projections into effective adaptation decisions and policies. Since its release to the public in June 2011, Cal-Adapt has been visited by more than 94,000 unique visitors from over 180 countries, all 50 U.S. states, and 689 California localities. We will present several key visualizations that have been employed by Cal-Adapt's users to support their efforts to understand local impacts of climate change, indicate the breadth of data available, and delineate specific use cases. Recently, CEC and GIF have been developing and releasing Cal-Adapt 2.0, which includes updates and enhancements that are increasing its ease of use, information value, visualization tools, and data accessibility. We showcase how Cal-Adapt is evolving in response to feedback from a variety of sources to present finer-resolution downscaled data, and offer an open API that allows other organization to access Cal-Adapt climate data and build domain specific visualization and planning tools. Through a combination of locally relevant information, visualization tools, and access to primary data, Cal-Adapt allows users to investigate how the climate is projected to change in their areas of interest.

Melanin-based colour polymorphism responding to climate change.

PubMed

Roulin, Alexandre

2014-11-01

Climate warming leads to a decrease in biodiversity. Organisms can deal with the new prevailing environmental conditions by one of two main routes, namely evolving new genetic adaptations or through phenotypic plasticity to modify behaviour and physiology. Melanin-based colouration has important functions in animals including a role in camouflage and thermoregulation, protection against UV-radiation and pathogens and, furthermore, genes involved in melanogenesis can pleiotropically regulate behaviour and physiology. In this article, I review the current evidence that differently coloured individuals are differentially sensitive to climate change. Predicting which of dark or pale colour variants (or morphs) will be more penalized by climate change will depend on the adaptive function of melanism in each species as well as how the degree of colouration covaries with behaviour and physiology. For instance, because climate change leads to a rise in temperature and UV-radiation and dark colouration plays a role in UV-protection, dark individuals may be less affected from global warming, if this phenomenon implies more solar radiation particularly in habitats of pale individuals. In contrast, as desertification increases, pale colouration may expand in those regions, whereas dark colourations may expand in regions where humidity is predicted to increase. Dark colouration may be also indirectly selected by climate warming because genes involved in the production of melanin pigments confer resistance to a number of stressful factors including those associated with climate warming. Furthermore, darker melanic individuals are commonly more aggressive than paler conspecifics, and hence they may better cope with competitive interactions due to invading species that expand their range in northern latitudes and at higher altitudes. To conclude, melanin may be a major component involved in adaptation to climate warming, and hence in animal populations melanin-based colouration is likely to change as an evolutionary or plastic response to climate warming. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Toward Collective Impact for Climate Resilience: Maximizing Climate Change Education for Preparedness, Adaptation, and Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; McCaffrey, M.

2014-12-01

Increasing the capacity of society to make informed climate decisions based on scientific evidence is imperative. While a wide range of education programs and communication efforts to improve understanding and facilitate responsible effective decision-making have been developed in recent years, these efforts have been largely disconnected. The interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary nature of the problems and potential responses to climate change requires a broad range of expertise and a strategy that overcomes the inherent limitations of isolated programs and efforts. To extend the reach and impact of climate change education and engagement efforts, it is necessary to have a coordination that results in greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network has facilitated a series of discussions at six professional meetings from late 2012 through spring 2014 to begin to develop and define the elements of collective impact on climate change education and engagement. These discussions have focused on getting input from the community on a common agenda and what a backbone support organization could do to help extend their reach and impact and enable a longer-term sustainability. These discussions will continue at future meetings, with the focus shifting to developing a common agenda and shared metrics. In this presentation we will summarize the outcomes of these discussions thus far, especially with respect to what activities a backbone support organization might provide to help increase the collective impact of climate change education effort and invite others to join the development of public-private partnership to improve the nations climate literacy. The cumulative input into this evolving discussion on collective impact on climate literacy can be viewed at http://tinyurl.com/mgwndtr.

Hydroclimate-driven changes in the landscape structure of the terminal lakes and wetlands of the China's Heihe River Basin.

PubMed

Xiao, Shengchun; Xiao, Honglang; Peng, Xiaomei; Song, Xiang

2015-01-01

Changes in the landscape structure of terminal lakes and wetlands along inland rivers in arid areas are determined by the water balance in the river basins under the impacts of climate change and human activities. Studying the evolution of these landscapes and the mechanisms driving these changes is critical to the sustainable development of river basins. The terminal lakes and wetlands along the lower reaches of the Heihe River, an inland river in arid northwestern China, can be grouped into three types: runoff-recharged, groundwater-recharged, and precipitation-recharged. These water-recharge characteristics determine the degree to which the landscape structure of a terminal lake or wetland is impacted by climate change and human activities. An analysis of seven remote-sensing and hydroclimatic data sets for the Heihe River basin during the last 50 years indicates that hydrological changes in the basin caused by regional human activities were the primary drivers of the observed changes in the spatial and temporal landscape-structure patterns of the terminal lakes and wetlands of the Heihe River. In this warm, dry climatic context, the lakes and wetlands gradually evolved toward and maintained a landscape dominated by saline-alkaline lands and grasslands.

Teaching climate change: A 16-year record of introducing undergraduates to the fundamentals of the climate system and its complexities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winckler, G.; Pfirman, S. L.; Hays, J. D.; Schlosser, P.; Ting, M.

2011-12-01

Responding to climate change challenges in the near and far future, will require a wide range of knowledge, skills and a sense of the complexities involved. Since 1995, Columbia University and Barnard College have offered an undergraduate class that strives to provide students with some of these skills. The 'Climate System' course is a component of the three-part 'Earth Environmental Systems' series and provides the fundamentals needed for understanding the Earth's climate system and its variability. Being designed both for science majors and non-science majors, the emphasis of the course is on basic physical explanations, rather than mathematical derivations of the laws that govern the climate system. The course includes lectures, labs and discussion. Laboratory exercises primarily explore the climate system using global datasets, augmented by hands-on activities. Course materials are available for public use at http://eesc.columbia.edu/courses/ees/climate/camel_modules/ and http://ncseonline.org/climate/cms.cfm?id=3783. In this presentation we discuss the experiences, challenges and future demands of conveying the science of the Earth's Climate System and the risks facing the planet to a wide spectrum of undergraduate students, many of them without a background in the sciences. Using evaluation data we reflect how the course, the students, and the faculty have evolved over the past 16 years as the earth warmed, pressures for adaptation planning and mitigation measures increased, and public discourse became increasingly polarized.

An integrated approach to modeling changes in land use, land cover, and disturbance and their impact on ecosystem carbon dynamics: a case study in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Liu, Jinxun; Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Zhu, Zhiliang

2015-01-01

Increased land-use intensity (e.g. clearing of forests for cultivation, urbanization), often results in the loss of ecosystem carbon storage, while changes in productivity resulting from climate change may either help offset or exacerbate losses. However, there are large uncertainties in how land and climate systems will evolve and interact to shape future ecosystem carbon dynamics. To address this we developed the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) to track changes in land use, land cover, land management, and disturbance, and their impact on ecosystem carbon storage and flux within a scenario-based framework. We have combined a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM) of land change with a stock and flow model of carbon dynamics. Land-change projections downscaled from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) were used to drive changes within the STSM, while the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) ecosystem model was used to derive input parameters for the carbon stock and flow model. The model was applied to the Sierra Nevada Mountains ecoregion in California, USA, a region prone to large wildfires and a forestry sector projected to intensify over the next century. Three scenario simulations were conducted, including a calibration scenario, a climate-change scenario, and an integrated climate- and land-change scenario. Based on results from the calibration scenario, the LUCAS age-structured carbon accounting model was able to accurately reproduce results obtained from the process-based biogeochemical model. Under the climate-only scenario, the ecoregion was projected to be a reliable net sink of carbon, however, when land use and disturbance were introduced, the ecoregion switched to become a net source. This research demonstrates how an integrated approach to carbon accounting can be used to evaluate various drivers of ecosystem carbon change in a robust, yet transparent modeling environment.

Customer Use Cases and Analytics for Climate Data at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchey, N. A.; Brewer, M.; Houston, T.; Hollingshead, A.; Jones, N.; Dissen, J.

2017-12-01

NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) is the world's largest repository of climate data. Customer analytics and uses of NCEI information are critical to understanding and evolving NCEI's suite of use-inspired data and information to make them applicable to decision making. Over the past three years, NCEI's Center for Weather and Climate has made a concerted effort to: 1) Establish a system for collection of user requirements, 2) Ensure that collected information informs product area management and prioritization activities, and 3) Include user insights into future products and product versions. These process changes require a long-term commitment to climate services and success is not possible with a "build it and they will come" mentality nor with a "drop-in, drop-out" customer engagement strategy. This presentation will focus on the path necessary to get from effective user engagement, centered on collection and adjudication of user requirements, all the way through the outcomes of the changed products and services and how those have benefitted users, including economic examples.

Stable isotope ecology of Miocene bovids from Northern Greece and the ape/monkey turnover in the Balkans.

PubMed

Merceron, Gildas; Kostopoulos, Dimitris S; Bonis, Louis de; Fourel, François; Koufos, George D; Lécuyer, Christophe; Martineau, François

2013-08-01

Eurasia was home to a great radiation of hominoid primates during the Miocene. All were extinct by the end of the Miocene in Western Eurasia. Here, we investigate the hypothesis of climate and vegetation changes at a local scale when the cercopithecoid Mesopithecus replaced the hominoid Ouranopithecus along the Axios River, Greece. Because they are herbivorous and were much more abundant than primates, bovids are preferred to primates to study climate change in the Balkans as a cause of hominoid extinction. By measuring carbon stable isotope ratios of bovid enamel, we conclude that Ouranopithecus and Mesopithecus both evolved in pure C3 environments. However, the large range of δ(13)C values of apatite carbonate from bovids combined with their molar microwear and mesowear patterns preclude the presence of dense forested landscapes in northern Greece. Instead, these bovids evolved in rather open landscapes with abundant grasses in the herbaceous layer. Coldest monthly estimated temperatures were below 10°C and warmest monthly temperatures rose close to or above 20°C for the two time intervals. Oxygen isotope compositions of phosphate from bulk samples did not show significant differences between sites but did show between-species variation within each site. Different factors influence oxygen isotope composition in this context, including water provenience, feeding ecology, body mass, and rate of amelogenesis. We discuss this latter factor in regard to the high intra-tooth variations in δ(18)Op reflecting important amplitudes of seasonal variations in temperature. These estimations fit with paleobotanical data and differ slightly from estimations based on climate models. This study found no significant change in climate before and after the extinction of Ouranopithecus along the Axios River. However, strong seasonal variations with relatively cold winters were indicated, conditions quite usual for extant monkeys but unusual for great apes distributed today in inter-tropical regions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global warming of salmon and trout rivers in the northwestern U.S.: Road to ruin or path through purgatory?

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Charles H. Luce; Dona L. Horan; Gwynne Chandler; Sherry Wollrab; David E. Nagel

2018-01-01

Large rivers constitute small portions of drainage networks but provide important migratory habitats and fisheries for salmon and trout when and where temperatures are sufficiently cold. Management and conservation of cold‐water fishes in the current era of rapid climate change requires knowing how riverine thermal environments are evolving and the potential for...

Defining a landscape-scale monitoring tier for the North American Carbon Program. Chapter 1

Treesearch

David Y. Hollinger

2008-01-01

Better knowledge of carbon stocks and fluxes is needed to understand the current state of the carbon cycle and how it might evolve with changing land uses and climatic conditions. For Canada, the United States, and Mexico, the North American Carbon Program (NACP) has been devised to measure and understand the sources and sinks of CO2, CH

Don't shoot the messenger: re-framing climate policy to respond to evolving science (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E.; Otto, A.; Rayner, S.

2013-12-01

Lack of progress in mitigation policy, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations climb apparently inexorably past 400ppm, is often blamed on a failure to 'communicate the climate change message' effectively. A small but increasing number of commentators is arguing that the problem is not communication, but the way in which climate policy choices are framed. In particular, the overt politicization of climate science, with so-called 'belief in climate change' being invoked as automatically implying support for a global carbon price or cap-and-trade regime, or even as an argument for voting for specific parties, makes it increasingly difficult to discuss policy options in the light of evolving science. At the heart of the problem is the interpretation of the 'precautionary principle', which is widely invoked in climate policy as a response to scientific uncertainty: policies, it is argued, should be designed to be robust to the range of possible future climates, or to deliver the ';best' possible probability-weighted outcome. The problem with this approach is that it very often makes policy contingent on worst-case scenarios - such as the risk of high climate sensitivity or rapid non-linear climate change - which are often the most uncertain aspects of climate science and hence subject to frequent revision. To be relevant to policies that are based on mitigating worst-case risks, the scientific community is also required to focus on establishing what these risks are, leaving it open, unjustly but understandably, to the accusation of alarmism. Focusing on worst-case scenarios can also give the impression that the mitigation problem is unachievable, and the only option is short-term adaptation followed by geo-engineering. One way of reducing the politicization of climate science is to make policy explicitly contingent on the climate response, such that a high (or low) rate of anthropogenic warming over the coming decades is automatically met with an aggressive (or moderate) mitigation effort. In the short term, such 'adaptive' policy responses take two forms: either investing in technologies to ensure they are available if and when aggressive mitigation is necessary; or devising policies that respond explicitly to climate change, such as a carbon tax linked to global temperature. Neither of these approaches has gained much traction in the mitigation debate because they are both seen as 'kicking the can down the road', or placing the burden of tough mitigation decisions on future politicians. We will propose that a climate policy that is explicitly contingent on the climate response should otherwise be as inflexible as possible. Ideally, the only unpredictable element of the policy should be the rate of warming attributable to rising greenhouse gas concentrations over the coming decades. Those affected by the policy should be able take a clean position on what that rate is likely to be, unaffected by speculation on what future politicians are likely to do. On this measure, relying on a carbon price or subsidizing technology development are both too flexible, however attractive they might be assuming perfectly rational implementation, because their impact depends as much or more on future decisions on taxes and subsidies as it does on future climate. We will describe a possible alternative, upstream mandatory sequestration (or 'SAFE carbon') explicitly linked to attributable warming, and discuss how it might be implemented.

Evaluating the Financial Vulnerability of a Major Electric Utility in the Southeastern U.S. to Drought under Climate Change and an Evolving Generation Mix.

PubMed

Kern, Jordan D; Characklis, Gregory W

2017-08-01

There is increasing recognition of the vulnerability of electric power systems to drought and the potential for both climate change and a shifting generation mix to alter this vulnerability. Nonetheless, the considerable research in this area has not been synthesized to inform electric utilities with respect to a key factor that influences their decisions about critical infrastructure: financial risk for shareholders. This study addresses this gap in knowledge by developing a systems framework for assessing the financial exposure of utilities to drought, with further consideration of the effects of climate change and a shifting generation mix. We then apply this framework to a major utility in the Southeastern U.S. Results suggest that extreme drought could cause profit shortfalls of more than $100 million if water temperature regulations are strictly enforced. However, even losses of this magnitude would not significantly impact returns for shareholders. This may inadvertently reduce pressure internally at utilities to incorporate drought vulnerability into long-term strategic planning, potentially leaving utilities and their customers at greater risk in the future.

A White Paper on Global Wheat Health Based on Scenario Development and Analysis.

PubMed

Savary, S; Djurle, A; Yuen, J; Ficke, A; Rossi, V; Esker, P D; Fernandes, J M C; Del Ponte, E M; Kumar, J; Madden, L V; Paul, P; McRoberts, N; Singh, P K; Huber, L; Pope de Vallavielle, C; Saint-Jean, S; Willocquet, L

2017-10-01

Scenario analysis constitutes a useful approach to synthesize knowledge and derive hypotheses in the case of complex systems that are documented with mainly qualitative or very diverse information. In this article, a framework for scenario analysis is designed and then, applied to global wheat health within a timeframe from today to 2050. Scenario analysis entails the choice of settings, the definition of scenarios of change, and the analysis of outcomes of these scenarios in the chosen settings. Three idealized agrosystems, representing a large fraction of the global diversity of wheat-based agrosystems, are considered, which represent the settings of the analysis. Several components of global changes are considered in their consequences on global wheat health: climate change and climate variability, nitrogen fertilizer use, tillage, crop rotation, pesticide use, and the deployment of host plant resistances. Each idealized agrosystem is associated with a scenario of change that considers first, a production situation and its dynamics, and second, the impacts of the evolving production situation on the evolution of crop health. Crop health is represented by six functional groups of wheat pathogens: the pathogens associated with Fusarium head blight; biotrophic fungi, Septoria-like fungi, necrotrophic fungi, soilborne pathogens, and insect-transmitted viruses. The analysis of scenario outcomes is conducted along a risk-analytical pattern, which involves risk probabilities represented by categorized probability levels of disease epidemics, and risk magnitudes represented by categorized levels of crop losses resulting from these levels of epidemics within each production situation. The results from this scenario analysis suggest an overall increase of risk probabilities and magnitudes in the three idealized agrosystems. Changes in risk probability or magnitude however vary with the agrosystem and the functional groups of pathogens. We discuss the effects of global changes on the six functional groups, in terms of their epidemiology and of the crop losses they cause. Scenario analysis enables qualitative analysis of complex systems, such as plant pathosystems that are evolving in response to global changes, including climate change and technology shifts. It also provides a useful framework for quantitative simulation modeling analysis for plant disease epidemiology.

Landscape Conservation Cooperatives: Creating a Collaborative Conservation Vision in the Face of Climate Change Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athearn, N.; Schlafmann, D.

2015-12-01

The 22 Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) form a "network of networks," each defined by the characteristics of its ecoregion and its unique community of conservation managers, practitioners, and scientists. As self-directed partnerships, LCCs are strongly influenced not only by the landscape but by the evolving cultures and values that define the multi-faceted relationships between people and place. LCCs maintain an ecologically connected network across these diverse landscapes by transcending borders and leveraging resources. Natural resource managers are challenged to make decisions in the face of multiple uncertainties, and several partners across the network have recognized that climate change is one important uncertainty that spans boundaries - both across the conservation community and beyond. The impacts of climate change across the LCC Network are likely to be as diverse as the network itself - manifesting as, for example, sea level rise, ocean acidification, loss of sea ice, and shifts in climate patterns and timing - but synergies are being leveraged within and between LCCs and national climate-focused programs to systematically address the needs of the network to support a collaborative conservation vision that addresses multiple landscape-scale stressors in the face of climate uncertainties. This vision is being achieved by leveraging the convening power of the LCCs and collaborating with DOI Climate Science Centers and others. Selected case studies will demonstrate how the network finds strength in its differences, but also reveals powerful collaborative opportunities through integrated science, shared conservation strategies, and strategic approaches for translating targeted science to conservation action. These examples exemplify past successes as well as ongoing efforts as the network continues to bring about effective application of climate science to achieve conservation outcomes across the LCC Network in an uncertain future climate.

A regional approach to the Co-Production of climate information for water utilities- Managing Messages, Approaches, Benefits, and Lessons learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yates, D. N.; Kaatz, L.

2016-12-01

Over the past decade, water utility managers across Colorado have joined together to advance their understanding of the role of climate information in their planning process. In an unprecedented step, managers from 5 different organizations and agencies pooled their resources and worked collaboratively to better understand the ever evolving role of science in helping understand risks, uncertainties, and opportunities that climate uncertainty and change might bring to this semi-arid region. The group developed an ongoing educational process to better understand climate projections (Scale); cohesively communicate with customers and the media (Communication); provided institutional coverage to an often contentious topic (Safety); and helped coordinate with other investigations and participants to facilitate education and training (Collaboration); and pooled finances, staff, and expert resources (Resources). We will share this experience and give examples of concrete outcomes.

Evolving Views on a Dynamic Greenhouse Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hollis, Chris; Huber, Matthew

2009-06-01

Climatic and Biotic Events of the Paleogene (CBEP 2009) Conference; Wellington, New Zealand, 12-15 January 2009; The Paleogene (65-24 million years ago) was a dynamic period in Earth's history in which major mammal groups became established and diversified, rapid and repeated extreme global warming events occurred, and climate began its stuttering progression from a greenhouse to an icehouse climate state. With atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the range projected to occur over the next several centuries (>1000 parts per million), the Paleogene is also a window into our future (see J. C. Zachos et al., Nature, 451, 279-283, 2008). Long-standing interest in understanding the causes and consequences of global change in the Paleogene and the current timeliness of greenhouse climate research explain why conferences are periodically devoted to the climatic and biotic events of the Paleogene. The 2009 conference, held in New Zealand, attracted 130 participants from 20 countries. Presentations demonstrated substantial progress in new climate proxy development, new multiproxy approaches, and closer integration of paleoclimate records with climate models, consolidating around three main issues.

Decision-Makers As Messengers Of Climate Change Impacts And Ambassadors For Their Communities.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudrias, M. A.; DeBenedict, C.; Bruce, L.; Estrada, M.; Hedge, N.; Silva-Send, N. J.

2016-12-01

Over the past several years there have been many coordinated efforts to improve climate change literacy of diverse audiences. The challenge has been to balance science content with audience-specific messaging with a goal to reach solutions and build community resilience. In the San Diego Region, Climate Education Partners (CEP) has been working with business leaders, elected officials, tribal leaders, and other community leaders to develop a suite of programs and activities to enhance the channels of communication outside traditional settings. CEP has employed a multidisciplinary approach that integrates climate science, social and learning sciences and effective communication strategies to create innovative resources and new approaches to climate change communication in order to engage audiences more effectively. We have interviewed over 140 key San Diego leaders and invited them to serve as ambassadors to the project by engaging them directly in the creation of a variety of innovative educational resources as well as serving as spokespersons for outreach activities. Our program has evolved from having only scientists, educators and community practitioners serve as presenters to strategically and deliberately engaging a mix of scientists, educators and decision makers as the conveyers of key messages. Our protocol for events includes preparing all speakers in advance, researching our audience, creating a script, immediate debriefs of each activity and a qualitative and quantitative assessment of each event. Two examples of this integrated approach will show how to engage decision-makers more deeply: (1) coastal flooding tour as a place-based activity and (2) impact videos that blend climate science, local personal stories and key messages from decision makers themselves. For climate change communication to be successful in the future, we will need creative and coordinated approaches.

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) "reasons for concern".

PubMed

Smith, Joel B; Schneider, Stephen H; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H D; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-03-17

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that "would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system." In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 "reasons for concern" (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the "burning embers diagram." In presenting the "embers" in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 "reasons for concern."

Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “reasons for concern”

PubMed Central

Smith, Joel B.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Oppenheimer, Michael; Yohe, Gary W.; Hare, William; Mastrandrea, Michael D.; Patwardhan, Anand; Burton, Ian; Corfee-Morlot, Jan; Magadza, Chris H. D.; Füssel, Hans-Martin; Pittock, A. Barrie; Rahman, Atiq; Suarez, Avelino; van Ypersele, Jean-Pascal

2009-01-01

Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [United Nations (1992) http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf. Accessed February 9, 2009] commits signatory nations to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that “would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference (DAI) with the climate system.” In an effort to provide some insight into impacts of climate change that might be considered DAI, authors of the Third Assessment Report (TAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) identified 5 “reasons for concern” (RFCs). Relationships between various impacts reflected in each RFC and increases in global mean temperature (GMT) were portrayed in what has come to be called the “burning embers diagram.” In presenting the “embers” in the TAR, IPCC authors did not assess whether any single RFC was more important than any other; nor did they conclude what level of impacts or what atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases would constitute DAI, a value judgment that would be policy prescriptive. Here, we describe revisions of the sensitivities of the RFCs to increases in GMT and a more thorough understanding of the concept of vulnerability that has evolved over the past 8 years. This is based on our expert judgment about new findings in the growing literature since the publication of the TAR in 2001, including literature that was assessed in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), as well as additional research published since AR4. Compared with results reported in the TAR, smaller increases in GMT are now estimated to lead to significant or substantial consequences in the framework of the 5 “reasons for concern.” PMID:19251662

Downscaling a Global Climate Model to Simulate Climate Change Impacts on U.S. Regional and Urban Air Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Trail, M.; Tsimpidi, A. P.; Liu, P.; Tsigaridis, K.; Hu, Y.; Nenes, A.; Russell, A. G.

2013-01-01

Climate change can exacerbate future regional air pollution events by making conditions more favorable to form high levels of ozone. In this study, we use spectral nudging with WRF to downscale NASA earth system GISS modelE2 results during the years 2006 to 2010 and 2048 to 2052 over the continental United States in order to compare the resulting meteorological fields from the air quality perspective during the four seasons of five-year historic and future climatological periods. GISS results are used as initial and boundary conditions by the WRF RCM to produce hourly meteorological fields. The downscaling technique and choice of physics parameterizations used are evaluated by comparing them with in situ observations. This study investigates changes of similar regional climate conditions down to a 12km by 12km resolution, as well as the effect of evolving climate conditions on the air quality at major U.S. cities. The high resolution simulations produce somewhat different results than the coarse resolution simulations in some regions. Also, through the analysis of the meteorological variables that most strongly influence air quality, we find consistent changes in regional climate that would enhance ozone levels in four regions of the U.S. during fall (Western U.S., Texas, Northeastern, and Southeastern U.S), one region during summer (Texas), and one region where changes potentially would lead to better air quality during spring (Northeast). We also find that daily peak temperatures tend to increase in most major cities in the U.S. which would increase the risk of health problems associated with heat stress. Future work will address a more comprehensive assessment of emissions and chemistry involved in the formation and removal of air pollutants.

Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

Creating a Learning Community for Solutions to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloom, A. J.; Benedict, B. A.; Blockstein, D. E.; Hassenzahl, D. M.; Hunter, A.; Jorgensen, A. D.; Pfirman, S. L.

2011-12-01

The rapidly evolving and interdisciplinary nature of climate change presents a challenge to colleges and universities as they seek to educate undergraduate students. To address this challenge, the National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) with NSF funding is creating a nationwide cyber-enabled learning community called CAMEL (Climate, Adaptation, and Mitigation e-Learning). CAMEL engages experts in science, policy and decision-making, education, and assessment in the production of a virtual toolbox of curricular resources designed for teaching climate change causes, consequences, and solutions. CAMEL is: ? Developing cyberinfrastructure that supports and promotes the creation of materials and community; ? Generating materials for the Encyclopedia of Earth, a site averaging 50,000 views per day; ? Ensuring that materials developed and shared are founded on the best available scientific information and follow the most appropriate educational practices; ? Assisting faculty at institutions of higher education across the United States as they create, improve, test, and share resources for teaching students not only how to diagnose climate change problems, but also to identify and effect solutions; ? Evaluating the determinants of successful community building using cybermedia. The community and resultant content range from general education to upper division courses for students in a variety of majors. At the center of the community are the 160 colleges and universities represented in NCSE's Council of Environmental Deans and Directors. Members of this group represent recognized expertise in virtually all areas of this project. A team with substantial experience with evaluating innovative initiatives in STEM education is administering the evaluation component.

Linked Climatic, Environmental, and Societal Changes in the Lower Yellow River Area during the Neolithic-Bronze Age Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, S. Y.

2017-12-01

Understanding human-environment interactions during times of large and rapid climatic changes in the second half of the Holocene may deepen our insight into human adaptation and resilience against potential climate anomalies in the future. However, the drivers and societal responses tend to be different from area to area, and the degree and nature of this link are still a matter of debate. Flooding sediments preserved within the cultural stratigraphical context at archaeological sites in the lower Yellow River area may offer an ideal framework for evaluating the association between evolution of Neolithic cultures and climate fluctuations. Here, we present evidence from a mound site for the prevalence of extreme overbank floods during the Neolithic-Bronze Age transition most likely triggered by excessive summer precipitation in the Yellow River valley when prolonged weak El Niño condition prevailed. Repeated flooding during around 4000-3500 cal yr BP substantially modified the floodplain landscape, thereby driving people to disperse to areas dominated by the Erlitou culture and eventually giving rise to a state-level society in central China historiographically identified as the Xia Dynasty. Changes in the drainage network due to repeated flooding also exerted a profound impact on the rice farming-based communities centered in the region of the floods. Our results provide a precise past analogue of the linked climatic, environmental, and societal changes at a time when human societies were evolving into a hierarchy similar to those of today.

Integrated Management of Residential Indoor Air Quality: A Call for Stakeholders in a Changing Climate.

PubMed

Levasseur, Marie-Eve; Poulin, Patrick; Campagna, Céline; Leclerc, Jean-Marc

2017-11-25

A paradigm change in the management of environmental health issues has been observed in recent years: instead of managing specific risks individually, a holistic vision of environmental problems would assure sustainable solutions. However, concrete actions that could help translate these recommendations into interventions are lacking. This review presents the relevance of using an integrated indoor air quality management approach to ensure occupant health and comfort. At the nexus of three basic concepts (reducing contaminants at the source, improving ventilation, and, when relevant, purifying the indoor air), this approach can help maintain and improve indoor air quality and limit exposure to several contaminants. Its application is particularly relevant in a climate change context since the evolving outdoor conditions have to be taken into account during building construction and renovation. The measures presented through this approach target public health players, building managers, owners, occupants, and professionals involved in building design, construction, renovation, and maintenance. The findings of this review will help the various stakeholders initiate a strategic reflection on the importance of indoor air quality and climate change issues for existing and future buildings. Several new avenues and recommendations are presented to set the path for future research activities.

Integrated Management of Residential Indoor Air Quality: A Call for Stakeholders in a Changing Climate

PubMed Central

Levasseur, Marie-Eve; Poulin, Patrick; Campagna, Céline; Leclerc, Jean-Marc

2017-01-01

A paradigm change in the management of environmental health issues has been observed in recent years: instead of managing specific risks individually, a holistic vision of environmental problems would assure sustainable solutions. However, concrete actions that could help translate these recommendations into interventions are lacking. This review presents the relevance of using an integrated indoor air quality management approach to ensure occupant health and comfort. At the nexus of three basic concepts (reducing contaminants at the source, improving ventilation, and, when relevant, purifying the indoor air), this approach can help maintain and improve indoor air quality and limit exposure to several contaminants. Its application is particularly relevant in a climate change context since the evolving outdoor conditions have to be taken into account during building construction and renovation. The measures presented through this approach target public health players, building managers, owners, occupants, and professionals involved in building design, construction, renovation, and maintenance. The findings of this review will help the various stakeholders initiate a strategic reflection on the importance of indoor air quality and climate change issues for existing and future buildings. Several new avenues and recommendations are presented to set the path for future research activities. PMID:29186831

Adapting Water Infrastructure to Non-stationary Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Water supply and sanitation are carried out by three major types of water infrastructure: drinking water treatment and distribution, wastewater collection and treatment, and storm water collection and management. Their sustainability is measured by resilience against and adaptability to an evolving factor; here it refers to the change of climate and its hydrologic impacts. The term resilience is defined as the ability to repair and recover its physical state and service function under the impacts of external forces (Milman and Short, 2008; McDaniels et al., 2008). In this context, capacity reserve (CR) is one very important physical attribute of system’s resilience; further details will be described later in this section and in the subsequent Chapter 1.7. While service function of a water infrastructure varies geographically among municipalities, its general engineering and management follow a triple bottom line of objectives: system reliability, environmental sustainability, and engineering economics. Communicate to science community and practitioners on the climate change adaptation to increase water infrastructure resilience by adaptation design

Evolved dispersal strategies at range margins

PubMed Central

Dytham, Calvin

2009-01-01

Dispersal is a key component of a species's ecology and will be under different selection pressures in different parts of the range. For example, a long-distance dispersal strategy suitable for continuous habitat at the range core might not be favoured at the margin, where the habitat is sparse. Using a spatially explicit, individual-based, evolutionary simulation model, the dispersal strategies of an organism that has only one dispersal event in its lifetime, such as a plant or sessile animal, are considered. Within the model, removing habitat, increasing habitat turnover, increasing the cost of dispersal, reducing habitat quality or altering vital rates imposes range limits. In most cases, there is a clear change in the dispersal strategies across the range, although increasing death rate towards the margin has little impact on evolved dispersal strategy across the range. Habitat turnover, reduced birth rate and reduced habitat quality all increase evolved dispersal distances at the margin, while increased cost of dispersal and reduced habitat density lead to lower evolved dispersal distances at the margins. As climate change shifts suitable habitat poleward, species ranges will also start to shift, and it will be the dispersal capabilities of marginal populations, rather than core populations, that will influence the rate of range shifting. PMID:19324810

Climatic and anthropogenic changes in Western Switzerland: Impacts on water stress.

PubMed

Milano, Marianne; Reynard, Emmanuel; Köplin, Nina; Weingartner, Rolf

2015-12-01

Recent observed hydro-climatic changes in mountainous areas are of concern as they may directly affect capacity to fulfill water needs. The canton of Vaud in Western Switzerland is an example of such a region as it has experienced water shortage episodes during the past decade. Based on an integrated modeling framework, this study explores how hydro-climatic conditions and water needs could evolve in mountain environments and assesses their potential impacts on water stress by the 2060 horizon. Flows were simulated based on a daily semi-distributed hydrological model. Future changes were derived from Swiss climate scenarios based on two regional climate models. Regarding water needs, the authorities of the canton of Vaud provided a population growth scenario while irrigation and livestock trends followed a business-as-usual scenario. Currently, the canton of Vaud experiences moderate water stress from June to August, except in its Alpine area where no stress is noted. In the 2060 horizon, water needs could exceed 80% of the rivers' available resources in low- to mid-altitude environments in mid-summer. This arises from the combination of drier and warmer climate that leads to longer and more severe low flows, and increasing urban (+40%) and irrigation (+25%) water needs. Highlighting regional differences supports the development of sustainable development pathways to reduce water tensions. Based on a quantitative assessment, this study also calls for broader impact studies including water quality issues. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Examining Educational Climate Change Technology: How Group Inquiry Work with Realistic Scientific Technology Alters Classroom Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bush, Drew; Sieber, Renee; Seiler, Gale; Chandler, Mark

2018-04-01

This study with 79 students in Montreal, Quebec, compared the educational use of a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) global climate model (GCM) to climate education technologies developed for classroom use that included simpler interfaces and processes. The goal was to show how differing climate education technologies succeed and fail at getting students to evolve in their understanding of anthropogenic global climate change (AGCC). Many available climate education technologies aim to convey key AGCC concepts or Earth systems processes; the educational GCM used here aims to teach students the methods and processes of global climate modeling. We hypothesized that challenges to learning about AGCC make authentic technology-enabled inquiry important in developing accurate understandings of not just the issue but how scientists research it. The goal was to determine if student learning trajectories differed between the comparison and treatment groups based on whether each climate education technology allowed authentic scientific research. We trace learning trajectories using pre/post exams, practice quizzes, and written student reflections. To examine the reasons for differing learning trajectories, we discuss student pre/post questionnaires, student exit interviews, and 535 min of recorded classroom video. Students who worked with a GCM demonstrated learning trajectories with larger gains, higher levels of engagement, and a better idea of how climate scientists conduct research. Students who worked with simpler climate education technologies scored lower in the course because of lower levels of engagement with inquiry processes that were perceived to not actually resemble the work of climate scientists.

Evolving the US Climate Resilience Toolkit to Support a Climate-Smart Nation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tilmes, C.; Niepold, F., III; Fox, J. F.; Herring, D.; Dahlman, L. E.; Hall, N.; Gardiner, N.

2015-12-01

Communities, businesses, resource managers, and decision-makers at all levels of government need information to understand and ameliorate climate-related risks. Likewise, climate information can expose latent opportunities. Moving from climate science to social and economic decisions raises complex questions about how to communicate the causes and impacts of climate variability and change; how to characterize and quantify vulnerabilities, risks, and opportunities faced by communities and businesses; and how to make and implement "win-win" adaptation plans at local, regional, and national scales. A broad coalition of federal agencies launched the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (toolkit.climate.gov) in November 2014 to help our nation build resilience to climate-related extreme events. The site's primary audience is planners and decision makers in business, resource management, and government (at all levels) who seek science-based climate information and tools to help them in their near- and long-term planning. The Executive Office of the President assembled a task force of dozens of subject experts from across the 13 agencies of the U.S. Global Change Research Program to guide the site's development. The site's ongoing evolution is driven by feedback from the target audience. For example, based on feedback, climate projections will soon play a more prominent role in the site's "Climate Explorer" tool and case studies. The site's five-step adaptation planning process is being improved to better facilitate people getting started and to provide clear benchmarks for evaluating progress along the way. In this session, we will share lessons learned from a series of user engagements around the nation and evidence that the Toolkit couples climate information with actionable decision-making processes in ways that are helping Americans build resilience to climate-related stressors.

The origin and significance of sinuosity along incising bedrock rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barbour, Jonathan Ross

Landscapes evolve through processes acting at the earth's surface in response to tectonics and climate. Rivers that cut into bedrock are particularly important since they set the local baselevel and communicate changes in boundary conditions across the landscape through erosion and deposition; the pace of topographic evolution depends on both the rate of change of the boundary conditions and the speed of the bedrock channel network response. Much of the work so far has considered the effects of tectonically-controlled changes in slope and climatically-controlled changes in discharges to the rate of channel bed erosion while considering bank erosion, if active at all, to be of at best secondary importance to landscape evolution. Sprinkled throughout the literature of the past century are studies that have recognized lateral activity along incising rivers, but conflicting interpretations have left many unanswered questions about how to identify and measure horizontal erosion, what drives it, what effect it has on the landscape, and how it responds to climate and tectonics. In this thesis, I begin to answer some of these questions by focusing on bedrock river sinuosity and its evolution through horizontal erosion of the channel banks. An analysis of synoptic scale topography and climatology of the islands of eastern Asia reveals a quantitative signature of storm frequency in a regional measure of mountain river sinuosity. This is partly explained through a study of the hydro- and morphodynamics of a rapidly evolving bedrock river in Taiwan which shows how the erosive forces vary along a river to influence the spatiotemporal distribution of downcutting, sidecutting, and sediment transport. Through these analyses, I also present evidence that suggests that the relative frequency of erosive events is far more important than the absolute magnitude of extreme events in setting the erosion rate, and I show that the horizontal erosion of bedrock rivers is an important contributor to landscape evolution. This thesis comprises a new look at the processes at work in bedrock rivers which suggests new ideas about the ways that landscape and climate interact, new tools for interpreting landscape morphology, and new insights into the processes that contribute to the evolution of active orogens.

Climate change and the future of natural disturbances in the central hardwood region

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dale, Virginia H; Hughes, M. Joseph; Hayes, Daniel J

The spatial patterns and ecological processes of the southeastern upland hardwood forests have evolved to reflect past climatic conditions and natural disturbance regimes. Changes in climate can lead to disturbances that exceed their natural range of variation, and the impacts of these changes will depend on the vulnerability or resiliency of these ecosystems. Global Circulation Models generally project annual increases in temperature across the southeastern United States over the coming decades, but changes in precipitation are less consistent. Even more unclear is how climate change might affect future trends in the severity and frequency of natural disturbances, such as severemore » storms, fires, droughts, floods, and insect outbreaks. Here, we use a time-series satellite data record to map the spatial pattern and severity of broad classes of natural disturbances the southeast region. The data derived from this map allow analysis of regional-scale trends in natural and anthropogenic disturbances in the region over the last three decades. Throughout the region, between 5% and 25% of forest land is affected by some sort of disturbance each year since 1985. The time series reveals periodic droughts that themselves are widespread and of low severity but are associated with more localized, high-severity disturbances such as fire and insect outbreaks. The map also reveals extensive anthropogenic disturbance across the region in the form of forest conversion related to resource extraction and urban and residential development. We discuss how changes in climate and disturbance regimes might affect southeastern forests in the future via altering the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of these ecosystems. Changes in climate are highly likely to expose southeastern forests to more frequent and severe disturbances, but ultimately how vulnerable or resilient southeastern forests are to these changes will depend on their sensitivity and capacity to adapt to these novel conditions.« less

The evolution of environmental tolerance and range size: a comparison of geographically restricted and widespread Mimulus.

PubMed

Sheth, Seema N; Angert, Amy L

2014-10-01

The geographic ranges of closely related species can vary dramatically, yet we do not fully grasp the mechanisms underlying such variation. The niche breadth hypothesis posits that species that have evolved broad environmental tolerances can achieve larger geographic ranges than species with narrow environmental tolerances. In turn, plasticity and genetic variation in ecologically important traits and adaptation to environmentally variable areas can facilitate the evolution of broad environmental tolerance. We used five pairs of western North American monkeyflowers to experimentally test these ideas by quantifying performance across eight temperature regimes. In four species pairs, species with broader thermal tolerances had larger geographic ranges, supporting the niche breadth hypothesis. As predicted, species with broader thermal tolerances also had more within-population genetic variation in thermal reaction norms and experienced greater thermal variation across their geographic ranges than species with narrow thermal tolerances. Species with narrow thermal tolerance may be particularly vulnerable to changing climatic conditions due to lack of plasticity and insufficient genetic variation to respond to novel selection pressures. Conversely, species experiencing high variation in temperature across their ranges may be buffered against extinction due to climatic changes because they have evolved tolerance to a broad range of temperatures. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Selmeczi, Pál; Homolya, Emese; Rotárné Szalkai, Ágnes

2016-04-01

Extreme weather conditions in Hungary led to difficulties in drinking water management on diverse occasions in the past. Due to reduced water resources and the coexisting high demand for drinking water in dry summer periods the availability of a number of water supplies became insufficient therefore causing limitations in water access. In some other cases, as a result of floods and flash floods over karstic areas evolving in consequence of excessive precipitation, several water supplies had to be excluded in order to avoid the risk of infections. More frequent occurrence of extreme weather conditions and further possible changes in the future induce the necessity for an analysis of the vulnerability of drinking water resources to climate change. Since 95% of the total drinking water supply in Hungary originates from subsurface layers, significance of groundwater resources is outstanding. The aim of our work carried out in the frames of the NAGiS (National Adaptation Geo-information System) project was to build up a methodology for the study and determination of the vulnerability of drinking water supplies to climate. The task covered analyses of climatic parameters influencing drinking water supplies principally and hydrogeological characteristics of the geological media that significantly determines vulnerability. Effects on drinking water resources and their reduction or exclusion may imply societal and economic consequences therefore we extended the analyses to the investigation of possibilities concerning the adaptation capacity to changed conditions. We applied the CIVAS (Climate Impact and Vulnerability Assessment Scheme) model developed in the frames of the international climate research project CLAVIER (Climate Change and Variability: Impact on Central and Eastern Europe) to characterize climate vulnerability of drinking water supplies. The CIVAS model, being based on the combined evaluation of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, provides a unified methodical scheme to quantitative climatic impact assessment. We investigate the effects of climate change in the integrated context of exposure, sensitivity, impact, adaptive capacity and vulnerability, thus apart from the expected environmental changes societal and economic processes are also taken into account. Climate vulnerability has been determined on the basis of the distribution and categorisation of the chosen indicators. Further effects, independent of climate change and caused by anthropogenic activity, result in similar phenomena. It is often difficult to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic effects that occur simultaneously therefore in the analyses of vulnerability anthropogenic activity is needed to be taken into account. We determined climate vulnerability using data of two different climate models and for two separate future time periods. Results on the basis of both climate model projections suggest that a considerable number of regions in the area under investigation appear to be vulnerable to climate change to a certain extent and vulnerability intensifies to the end of the 21th century.

Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick

2017-01-01

Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

Merging Methods to Manage Uncertainty: Combining Simulation Modeling and Scenario Planning to Inform Resource Management Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, B. W.; Schuurman, G. W.; Symstad, A.; Fisichelli, N. A.; Frid, L.

2017-12-01

Managing natural resources in this era of anthropogenic climate change is fraught with uncertainties around how ecosystems will respond to management actions and a changing climate. Scenario planning (oftentimes implemented as a qualitative, participatory exercise for exploring multiple possible futures) is a valuable tool for addressing this challenge. However, this approach may face limits in resolving responses of complex systems to altered climate and management conditions, and may not provide the scientific credibility that managers often require to support actions that depart from current practice. Quantitative information on projected climate changes and ecological responses is rapidly growing and evolving, but this information is often not at a scale or in a form that is `actionable' for resource managers. We describe a project that sought to create usable information for resource managers in the northern Great Plains by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. In particular, researchers, resource managers, and climate adaptation specialists co-produced a simulation model in conjunction with scenario planning workshops to inform natural resource management in southwest South Dakota. Scenario planning for a wide range of resources facilitated open-minded thinking about a set of divergent and challenging, yet relevant and plausible, climate scenarios and management alternatives that could be implemented in the simulation. With stakeholder input throughout the process, we built a simulation of key vegetation types, grazing, exotic plants, fire, and the effects of climate and management on rangeland productivity and composition. By simulating multiple land management jurisdictions, climate scenarios, and management alternatives, the model highlighted important tradeoffs between herd sizes and vegetation composition, and between the short- versus long-term costs of invasive species management. It also identified impactful uncertainties related to the effects of fire and grazing on vegetation. Ultimately, this integrative and iterative approach yielded counter-intuitive and surprising findings, and resulted in a more tractable set of possible futures for resource management planning.

Vegetation change and pollen geochronology from the Atlantic Coast of the United States during the last Millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christie, M.; Bernhardt, C. E.; Clear, J.; Corbett, D. R.; Horton, B.

2017-12-01

Vegetation changes related to anthropogenic and climatic change have been reconstructed at many locations. Synthesizing observations from multiple locations improves our understanding of the regionality of these impacts and drivers. Human alterations to the plant communities vary spatially in timing and impact. For example, deforestation occurred at different times, rates, and magnitudes along the Atlantic Coast of the United States, while of the introduction of non-native plants into ecosystems varies by region. Gradual climate shifts cause the appearance of migration in sensitive plants, so climate-related transitions can be traced from one location to another. Here, we combine new and published pollen data from Florida to Connecticut to produce a regional synthesis of vegetation changes for the last 1000 years. We have produced detailed reconstructions of vegetation changes in response to anthropogenic and climatic forcing. Our database contains pollen assemblages from more than 10 locations along the Atlantic coast of the United States, including new reconstructions from the Florida Keys, Delaware Estuary, and northern New Jersey. All pollen assemblages are placed in a geochronological framework with as fine as decadal resolution using composite chronologies of radiocarbon, pollution histories and cesium isotopes. Anthropogenic impacts, including deforestation from European settlement and the introduction of non-native plants, are observed in the pollen record and serve as useful markers of time. For example, the abrupt increase in Ambrosia pollen in the mid-Atlantic corresponds to 18th Century deforestation. Climate transitions that can be seen in the pollen record during the last millennium include the Medieval Climate Optimum, Little Ice Age, and human-induced warming following industrialization in the 20th century. Plant communities of the United States Atlantic Coast adapted to the evolving climate. For example, Picea and Tsuga are indicative of cooler, moister conditions and disappear from regions as conditions become warmer or drier. We combine the various histories of vegetation change from pollen assemblages into a single source for researchers to use when attempting to understand geochronology and impacts of climate change along the Atlantic coast of the United States.

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations.

PubMed

Beever, Erik A; Ray, Chris; Mote, Philip W; Wilkening, Jennifer L

2010-01-01

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold temperature); and (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-yr periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators.

Testing alternative models of climate-mediated extirpations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beever, E.A.; Chris, R.A.Y.; Mote, P.W.; Wilkening, J.L.

2010-01-01

Biotic responses to climate change will vary among taxa and across latitudes, elevational gradients, and degrees of insularity. However, due to factors such as phenotypic plasticity, ecotypic variation, and evolved tolerance to thermal stress, it remains poorly understood whether losses should be greatest in populations experiencing the greatest climatic change or living in places where the prevailing climate is closest to the edge of the species' bioclimatic envelope (e.g., at the hottest, driest sites). Research on American pikas (Ochotona princeps) in montane areas of the Great Basin during 1994-1999 suggested that 20th-century population extirpations were predicted by a combination of biogeographic, anthropogenic, and especially climatic factors. Surveys during 2005-2007 documented additional extirpations and within-site shifts of pika distributions at remaining sites. To evaluate the evidence in support of alternative hypotheses involving effects of thermal stress on pikas, we placed temperature sensors at 156 locations within pika habitats in the vicinity of 25 sites with historical records of pikas in the Basin. We related these time series of sensor data to data on ambient temperature from weather stations within the Historical Climate Network. We then used these highly correlated relationships, combined with long-term data from the same weather stations, to hindcast temperatures within pika habitats from 1945 through 2006. To explain patterns of loss, we posited three alternative classes of direct thermal stress: (1) acute cold stress (number of days below a threshold temperature); (2) acute heat stress (number of days above a threshold, temperature); and. (3) chronic heat stress (average summer temperature). Climate change was defined as change in our thermal metrics between two 31-y.r periods: 1945-1975 and 1976-2006. We found that patterns of persistence were well predicted by metrics of climate. Our best models suggest some effects of climate change; however, recent and long-term metrics of chronic heat stress and acute cold stress, neither previously recognized as sources of stress for pikas, were some of the best predictors of pika persistence. Results illustrate that extremely rapid distributional shifts can be explained by climatic influences and have implications for conservation topics such as reintroductions and early-warning indicators. ?? 2010 by the Ecological society of America.

Current selection for lower migratory activity will drive the evolution of residency in a migratory bird population.

PubMed

Pulido, Francisco; Berthold, Peter

2010-04-20

Global warming is impacting biodiversity by altering the distribution, abundance, and phenology of a wide range of animal and plant species. One of the best documented responses to recent climate change is alterations in the migratory behavior of birds, but the mechanisms underlying these phenotypic adjustments are largely unknown. This knowledge is still crucial to predict whether populations of migratory birds will adapt to a rapid increase in temperature. We monitored migratory behavior in a population of blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) to test for evolutionary responses to recent climate change. Using a common garden experiment in time and captive breeding we demonstrated a genetic reduction in migratory activity and evolutionary change in phenotypic plasticity of migration onset. An artificial selection experiment further revealed that residency will rapidly evolve in completely migratory bird populations if selection for shorter migration distance persists. Our findings suggest that current alterations of the environment are favoring birds wintering closer to the breeding grounds and that populations of migratory birds have strongly responded to these changes in selection. The reduction of migratory activity is probably an important evolutionary process in the adaptation of migratory birds to climate change, because it reduces migration costs and facilitates the rapid adjustment to the shifts in the timing of food availability during reproduction.

Water resources in the twenty-first century; a study of the implications of climate uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, Marshall E.; Lins, Harry F.

1989-01-01

The interactions of the water resources on and within the surface of the Earth with the atmosphere that surrounds it are exceedingly complex. Increased uncertainty can be attached to the availability of water of usable quality in the 21st century, therefore, because of potential anthropogenic changes in the global climate system. For the U.S. Geological Survey to continue to fulfill its mission with respect to assessing the Nation's water resources, an expanded program to study the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be required. The goal for this program is to develop knowledge and information concerning the potential water-resources implications for the United States of uncertainties in climate that may result from both anthropogenic and natural changes of the Earth's atmosphere. Like most past and current water-resources programs of the Geological Survey, the climate-uncertainty program should be composed of three elements: (1) research, (2) data collection, and (3) interpretive studies. However, unlike most other programs, the climate-uncertainty program necessarily will be dominated by its research component during its early years. Critical new concerns to be addressed by the research component are (1) areal estimates of evapotranspiration, (2) hydrologic resolution within atmospheric (climatic) models at the global scale and at mesoscales, (3) linkages between hydrology and climatology, and (4) methodology for the design of data networks that will help to track the impacts of climate change on water resources. Other ongoing activities in U.S. Geological Survey research programs will be enhanced to make them more compatible with climate-uncertainty research needs. The existing hydrologic data base of the Geological Survey serves as a key element in assessing hydrologic and climatologic change. However, this data base has evolved in response to other needs for hydrologic information and probably is not as sensitive to climate change as is desirable. Therefore, as measurement and network-design methodologies are improved to account for climate-change potential, new data-collection activities will be added to the existing programs. One particular area of data-collection concern pertains to the phenomenon of evapotranspiration. Interpretive studies of the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be initiated by establishing several studies at the river-basin scale in diverse hydroclimatic and demographic settings. These studies will serve as tests of the existing methodologies for studying the impacts of climate change and also will help to define subsequent research priorities. A prototype for these studies was initiated in early 1988 in the Delaware River basin.

Deconstructing mammal dispersals and faunal dynamics in SW Europe during the Quaternary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palombo, Maria Rita

2014-07-01

This research aims to investigate the relationships between climate change and faunal dynamics in south-west Europe, disentangling the asynchronous and diachronous dispersal bioevents of large mammals across geographical and ecological boundaries, analysing biodiversity and its changes through time. The analysis of local versus regional biological dynamics may shed new light on whether turnovers and ecological and evolutionary changes developed because of global climate changes and related phenomena, or because of intrinsic biological factors. The SW European Quaternary fossil record is particularly suitable for studying the role of climate change at local and regional levels because of the complex physiographic and climatic heterogeneity of the study area, the presence of important geographical/ecological barriers and the complex history of invasions of species of varying geographical origin and provenance. The data base consists of taxonomically revised lists of large mammal species from selected SW European local faunal assemblages ranging in age from the Early to the late Middle Pleistocene (middle Villafranchian to early Aurelian European Land Mammal Ages). The new biochronological scheme proposed here allows for the comparison of local turnovers and biodiversity trends, yielding a better understanding of the action of geographical/ecological barriers that either prevented the range of some taxa from reaching some regions or caused delays in the dispersal of a taxon in some territories. The results obtained provide evidence that major environmental perturbations, triggering dispersal events and removing keystone species, modified the structure of the pre-existing mammalian faunas, merging previously independently-evolved taxa into new palaeo-communities. The coupled action of climatic changes and internal biotic dynamics thus caused the Quaternary SW European faunal complexes to significantly restructure. Diachroneity in local turnover across the study area probably relates to differences in local dynamic patterns of competition/coevolution, although different manifestations of global climate changes in different geographic settings would have contributed to the scale of local bioevents.

Translating Research into Practice: Establishing a Network of Climate Change Practitioners in Ontario, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milner, G. A.

2017-12-01

Climate research and information continues to emerge at a rapid pace from the academic and scientific community. Decisions being made today by planners, engineers and staff across the Province of Ontario rely on science and information to plan and build our systems for the long term. Of course, as scientific information evolves continuously to produce lessons learned and new evidence, on the ground decisions often become entrenched in outdated information and need updating. Given this, bridging the gap between research to policy, and research to practice is of critical importance as the Province of Ontario upgrades its infrastructure, plans for long term growth in population within the Great Lakes Basin, and manages its natural systems and resources responsibly. The Ontario Climate Consortium (OCC) is an interdisciplinary network of academics and practitioners established in 2011 in the province that works to mobilize climate research findings towards building capacity, inspiring climate action, and training end-users with the latest science. The OCC has collaborated with more than 39 organizations throughout Ontario and across Canada, including government agencies at all levels (local, provincial and federal), non-profit organizations and private sector companies. This presentation will describe the foundations of climate action in Ontario, Canada including the landscape of climate adaptation practitioners from both public and private organizations. Furthermore, this presentation will feature lessons learned from the OCC network, including: 1) What comprises effective partnerships to undertake climate change adaptation planning for cities; 2) How to build the foundation for capacity at agencies with limited resources or expertise in the climate change field; and 3) How to successfully mobilize complex climate data for end-users to produce usable tools (through a case study research project). The latter will present findings from a two-year research project undertaken with OCC and the City of Vaughan, just northwest of Toronto, which examined vulnerability and risks of climate change to the city's stormwater infrastructure system and produced key tools and information for managers to begin building climate resilience into their planning and operations.

Remnants of an ancient forest provide ecological context for Early Miocene fossil apes.

PubMed

Michel, Lauren A; Peppe, Daniel J; Lutz, James A; Driese, Steven G; Dunsworth, Holly M; Harcourt-Smith, William E H; Horner, William H; Lehmann, Thomas; Nightingale, Sheila; McNulty, Kieran P

2014-01-01

The lineage of apes and humans (Hominoidea) evolved and radiated across Afro-Arabia in the early Neogene during a time of global climatic changes and ongoing tectonic processes that formed the East African Rift. These changes probably created highly variable environments and introduced selective pressures influencing the diversification of early apes. However, interpreting the connection between environmental dynamics and adaptive evolution is hampered by difficulties in locating taxa within specific ecological contexts: time-averaged or reworked deposits may not faithfully represent individual palaeohabitats. Here we present multiproxy evidence from Early Miocene deposits on Rusinga Island, Kenya, which directly ties the early ape Proconsul to a widespread, dense, multistoried, closed-canopy tropical seasonal forest set in a warm and relatively wet, local climate. These results underscore the importance of forested environments in the evolution of early apes.

Evaluating Dietary Changes and Their Impact on the Food-Energy-Water Nexus and Climate Change Mitigation using an Integrated Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. T.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kim, S. H.; Waldhoff, S.; Miralles-Wilhelm, F.

2016-12-01

The composition of the global diet has evolved with the rise of meat consumption in developing countries. The steady rise in the consumption of meat, along with an increasing global population, has changed the agricultural and livestock landscape of the world. We have developed diet scenarios in which the global food consumption is increased to match the USDA recommended daily caloric intake while the percentage of meat within the diet is changed to closely mirror that of the standard United States diet (High Meat) and the diet of India (Low Meat). We use the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model (IAM), to process our dietary change scenarios. We attempt to quantify the changes in the global land, water, and emissions footprint. Along with the standard diet scenarios, we aim to understand the implications of our diet scenarios within a strict RCP 2.6 climate change scenario. Changes in land use, emissions, and water consumption are largely dependent upon the resultant changes to the livestock sector. Scenarios of increased dependency on livestock result in cropland expansion, a rise in water withdrawals, and escalated non-CO2 emissions that lead to consequent increases in global mean temperature. Under strict climate policies, extensive cropland and biomass expansion is observed at the expense of much of the global forests. Our analysis shows that even in the absence of climate policies, the burden that increasing the amount of meat in the global diet has upon the global landscape could be unsustainable, while lowering global meat consumption could lead to water savings, decreases in emissions, and available land for reforestation or biomass growth.

Strategic decision making under climate change: a case study on Lake Maggiore water system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Micotti, M.; Soncini Sessa, R.; Weber, E.

2014-09-01

Water resources planning processes involve different kinds of decisions that are generally evaluated under a stationary climate scenario assumption. In general, the possible combinations of interventions are mutually compared as single alternatives. However, the ongoing climate change requires us to reconsider this approach. Indeed, what have to be compared are not individual alternatives, but families of alternatives, characterized by the same structural decisions, i.e. by actions that have long-term effects and entail irrevocable changes in the system. The rationale is that the structural actions, once they have been implemented, cannot be easily modified, while the management decisions can be adapted to the evolving conditions. This paper considers this methodological problem in a real case study, in which a strategic decision has to be taken: a new barrage was proposed to regulate Lake Maggiore outflow, but, alternatively, either the present barrage can be maintained with its present regulation norms or with a new one. The problem was dealt with by multi-criteria decision analysis involving many stakeholders and two decision-makers. An exhaustive set of indicators was defined in the participatory process, conducted under the integrated water resource management paradigm, and many efficient (in Pareto sense) regulation policies were identified. The paper explores different formulations of a global index to evaluate and compare the effectiveness of the classes of alternatives under both stationary and changing hydrological scenarios in order to assess their adaptability to the ongoing climate change.

The evolution of water balance in Glossina (Diptera: Glossinidae): correlations with climate.

PubMed

Kleynhans, Elsje; Terblanche, John S

2009-02-23

The water balance of tsetse flies (Diptera: Glossinidae) has significant implications for understanding biogeography and climate change responses in these African disease vectors. Although moisture is important for tsetse population dynamics, evolutionary responses of Glossina water balance to climate have been relatively poorly explored and earlier studies may have been confounded by several factors. Here, using a physiological and GIS climate database, we investigate potential interspecific relationships between traits of water balance and climate. We do so in conventional and phylogenetically independent approaches for both adults and pupae. Results showed that water loss rates (WLR) were significantly positively related to precipitation in pupae even after phylogenetic adjustment. Adults showed no physiology-climate correlations. Ancestral trait reconstruction suggests that a reduction in WLR and increased size probably evolved from an intermediate ancestral state and may have facilitated survival in xeric environments. The results of this study therefore suggest an important role for water balance physiology of pupae in determining interspecific variation and lend support to conclusions reached by early studies of tsetse physiology.

A historical land use data set for the Holocene; HYDE 3.2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein Goldewijk, Kees

2016-04-01

Land use plays an important role in the climate system (Feddema et al., 2005). Many ecosystem processes are directly or indirectly climate driven, and together with human driven land use changes, they determine how the land surface will evolve through time. To assess the effects of land cover changes on the climate system, models are required which are capable of simulating interactions between the involved components of the Earth system (land, atmosphere, ocean, and carbon cycle). Since driving forces for global environmental change differ among regions, a geographically (spatially) explicit modeling approach is called for, so that it can be incorporated in global and regional (climate and/or biophysical) change models in order to enhance our understanding of the underlying processes and thus improving future projections. Integrated records of the co-evolving human-environment system over millennia are needed to provide a basis for a deeper understanding of the present and for forecasting the future. This requires the major task of assembling and integrating regional and global historical, archaeological, and paleo-environmental records. Humans cannot predict the future. But, if we can adequately understand the past, we can use that understanding to influence our decisions and to create a better, more sustainable and desirable future. Some researchers suggest that mankind has shifted from living in the Holocene (~emergence of agriculture) into the Anthropocene (~humans capable of changing the Earth' atmosphere) since the start of the Industrial Revolution. But in the light of the sheer size and magnitude of some historical land use changes (e.g. collapse of the Roman Empire in the 4th century, the depopulation of Europe due to the Black Plague in the 14th century and the aftermath of the colonization of the Americas in the 16th century), some believe that this point might have occurred earlier in time (Ruddiman, 2003; Kaplan et al., 2010). Many uncertainties still remain today and gaps in our knowledge of the Antiquity and its aftermath can only be improved by interdisciplinary research, of which some examples will be given. Here I will present the latest update (v 3.2) of the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) (Klein Goldewijk et al., 2011) with new quantitative estimates of the underlying demographic and agricultural developments for the Holocene. References Feddema, J.J., Oleson, K.W., Bonan, G.B., Mearns, L.O., Buja, L.E., Meehl, G.A. & Washington, W.M. (2005) Atmospheric science: The importance of land-cover change in simulating future climates. Science, 310, 1674-1678. Kaplan, J.O., Krumhardt, K.M., Ellis, E.C., Ruddiman, W.F., Lemmen, C. & Klein Goldewijk, K. (2010) Holocene carbon emissions as a result of anthropogenic land cover change. The Holocene, 20, doi:10.1177/0959683610386983 Klein Goldewijk, K., Beusen, A., van Drecht, G. & de Vos, M. (2011) The HYDE 3.1 spatially explicit database of human induced land use change over the past 12,000 years. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 20, 73-86. Ruddiman, W.F. (2003) The anthropogenic greenhouse era began thousands of years ago. Climatic Change, 61, 261-293.

The Department of the Interior Southeast Climate Science Center synthesis report 2011–15—Projects, products, and science priorities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Varela Minder, Elda; Lascurain, Aranzazu R.; McMahon, Gerard

2016-09-28

IntroductionIn 2009, the U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar established a network of eight regional Climate Science Centers (CSCs) that, along with the Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs), would help define and implement the Department's climate adaptation response. The Southeast Climate Science Center (SE CSC) was established at North Carolina State University (NCSU) in Raleigh, North Carolina, in 2010, under a 5-year cooperative agreement with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), to identify and address the regional challenges presented by climate change and variability in the Southeastern United States. All eight regional CSC hosts, including NCSU, were selected through a competitive process.Since its opening, the focus of the SE CSC has been on working with partners in the identification and development of research-based information that can assist managers, including cultural and natural resource managers, in adapting to global change processes, such as climate and land use change, that operate at local to global scales and affect resources important to the DOI mission. The SE CSC was organized to accomplish three goals:Provide co-produced, researched based, actionable science that supports transparent global change adaptation decisions.Convene conversations among decision makers, scientists, and managers to identify key ecosystem adaptation decisions driven by climate and land use change, the values and objectives that will be used to make decisions, and the research-based information needed to assess adaptation options.Build the capacity of natural resource professionals, university faculty, and students to understand and frame natural resource adaptation decisions and develop and use research-based information to make adaptation decisions.This report provides an overview of the SE CSC and the projects developed by the SE CSC since its inception. An important goal of this report is to provide a framework for understanding the evolution of the SE CSC science agenda, which has evolved over the first 5 years of the Center’s operation.

Spiny plants, mammal browsers, and the origin of African savannas.

PubMed

Charles-Dominique, Tristan; Davies, T Jonathan; Hempson, Gareth P; Bezeng, Bezeng S; Daru, Barnabas H; Kabongo, Ronny M; Maurin, Olivier; Muasya, A Muthama; van der Bank, Michelle; Bond, William J

2016-09-20

Savannas first began to spread across Africa during the Miocene. A major hypothesis for explaining this vegetation change is the increase in C4 grasses, promoting fire. We investigated whether mammals could also have contributed to savanna expansion by using spinescence as a marker of mammal herbivory. Looking at the present distribution of 1,852 tree species, we established that spinescence is mainly associated with two functional types of mammals: large browsers and medium-sized mixed feeders. Using a dated phylogeny for the same tree species, we found that spinescence evolved at least 55 times. The diversification of spiny plants occurred long after the evolution of Afrotherian proboscideans and hyracoids. However, it is remarkably congruent with diversification of bovids, the lineage including the antelope that predominantly browse these plants today. Our findings suggest that herbivore-adapted savannas evolved several million years before fire-maintained savannas and probably, in different environmental conditions. Spiny savannas with abundant mammal herbivores occur in drier climates and on nutrient-rich soils, whereas fire-maintained savannas occur in wetter climates on nutrient-poor soils.

Spiny plants, mammal browsers, and the origin of African savannas

PubMed Central

Charles-Dominique, Tristan; Davies, T. Jonathan; Hempson, Gareth P.; Bezeng, Bezeng S.; Kabongo, Ronny M.; Maurin, Olivier; Muasya, A. Muthama; van der Bank, Michelle; Bond, William J.

2016-01-01

Savannas first began to spread across Africa during the Miocene. A major hypothesis for explaining this vegetation change is the increase in C4 grasses, promoting fire. We investigated whether mammals could also have contributed to savanna expansion by using spinescence as a marker of mammal herbivory. Looking at the present distribution of 1,852 tree species, we established that spinescence is mainly associated with two functional types of mammals: large browsers and medium-sized mixed feeders. Using a dated phylogeny for the same tree species, we found that spinescence evolved at least 55 times. The diversification of spiny plants occurred long after the evolution of Afrotherian proboscideans and hyracoids. However, it is remarkably congruent with diversification of bovids, the lineage including the antelope that predominantly browse these plants today. Our findings suggest that herbivore-adapted savannas evolved several million years before fire-maintained savannas and probably, in different environmental conditions. Spiny savannas with abundant mammal herbivores occur in drier climates and on nutrient-rich soils, whereas fire-maintained savannas occur in wetter climates on nutrient-poor soils. PMID:27601649

The water footprint of California's energy system, 1990-2012.

PubMed

Fulton, Julian; Cooley, Heather

2015-03-17

California's energy and water systems are interconnected and have evolved in recent decades in response to changing conditions and policy goals. For this analysis, we use a water footprint methodology to examine water requirements of energy products consumed in California between 1990 and 2012. We combine energy production, trade, and consumption data with estimates of the blue and green water footprints of energy products. We find that while California's total annual energy consumption increased by just 2.6% during the analysis period, the amount of water required to produce that energy grew by 260%. Nearly all of the increase in California's energy-related water footprint was associated with water use in locations outside of California, where energy products that the state consumes were, and continue to be, produced. We discuss these trends and the implications for California's future energy system as it relates to climate change and expected water management challenges inside and outside the state. Our analysis shows that while California's energy policies have supported climate mitigation efforts, they have increased vulnerability to climate impacts, especially greater hydrologic uncertainty. More integrated analysis and planning are needed to ensure that climate adaptation and mitigation strategies do not work at cross purposes.

MARO - Mass Atrocity Response Operations: A Military Planning Handbook

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-05-01

while conveying an implied deterrent message to perpetrators. • Current military presence in the region can be reinforced with addi- tional US ...complete HUMINT network is likely to be a time- consuming process, ear- ly efforts may provide useful dividends. • Shows of force can be conducted...climate change, the impact of the information environment on military operations, and the evolving nature of warfare. coL (ret) scott Feil ( Us army) is an

The structure of biodiversity – insights from molecular phylogeography

PubMed Central

Hewitt, Godfrey M

2004-01-01

DNA techniques, analytical methods and palaeoclimatic studies are greatly advancing our knowledge of the global distribution of genetic diversity, and how it evolved. Such phylogeographic studies are reviewed from Arctic, Temperate and Tropical regions, seeking commonalities of cause in the resulting genetic patterns. The genetic diversity is differently patterned within and among regions and biomes, and is related to their histories of climatic changes. This has major implications for conservation science. PMID:15679920

Cultivating a Network For Messaging About Climate Change Across an Urban System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wertheim, J.

2014-12-01

Currently, some of the most promising efforts to address climate change are taking place at the scale of cities and municipalities. Large urban areas host an active population of organizations working to influence local environmental policies more rigorous than those at the state and national level. The composition of these groups is broadening as impacts of climate change are being recognized as relevant to more sectors within urban systems, from health centers to community leaders, leading more organizations to consider how they can raise awareness and gain support for their needs. The National Geographic Society, as part of the National Science Foundation (NSF)-funded Climate and Urban Systems Partnership (CUSP), has convened a pilot "community of practice" (CoP) consisting of organizations working at the local level in Washington, DC to communicate with audiences, from the general public to local government agencies, about ways that climate change is predicted to affect the city and what can be done about it. The purpose of the CoP was initially to help these groups coordinate their activities, share knowledge and resources, and to create a platform for ongoing collaborative learning. While the CoP is still evolving, it is clear that it has potential to provide even deeper and more meaningful support to these groups' efforts. Developing effective messaging about climate change across an urban system depends on the valuable insight these groups have into their audience's interests, beliefs, and knowledge, but it also requires a set of competencies that few members of the CoP hold. As conveners of the CoP, we have identified and prioritized those competencies and are developing a process for training CoP members to apply their expertise to implement empirically-based best practices in climate change messaging, public communication, and integration of data and visualizations. The process of training the group has the potential to both create a CoP that becomes a trusted resource for climate messaging activities in DC and an enduring network of professionals who identify participating in the group's ongoing work as essential to their own professional development

Climate change risk analysis framework (CCRAF) a probabilistic tool for analyzing climate change uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legget, J.; Pepper, W.; Sankovski, A.; Smith, J.; Tol, R.; Wigley, T.

2003-04-01

Potential risks of human-induced climate change are subject to a three-fold uncertainty associated with: the extent of future anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions; global and regional climatic responses to emissions; and impacts of climatic changes on economies and the biosphere. Long-term analyses are also subject to uncertainty regarding how humans will respond to actual or perceived changes, through adaptation or mitigation efforts. Explicitly addressing these uncertainties is a high priority in the scientific and policy communities Probabilistic modeling is gaining momentum as a technique to quantify uncertainties explicitly and use decision analysis techniques that take advantage of improved risk information. The Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework (CCRAF) presented here a new integrative tool that combines the probabilistic approaches developed in population, energy and economic sciences with empirical data and probabilistic results of climate and impact models. The main CCRAF objective is to assess global climate change as a risk management challenge and to provide insights regarding robust policies that address the risks, by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and by adapting to climate change consequences. The CCRAF endogenously simulates to 2100 or beyond annual region-specific changes in population; GDP; primary (by fuel) and final energy (by type) use; a wide set of associated GHG emissions; GHG concentrations; global temperature change and sea level rise; economic, health, and biospheric impacts; costs of mitigation and adaptation measures and residual costs or benefits of climate change. Atmospheric and climate components of CCRAF are formulated based on the latest version of Wigley's and Raper's MAGICC model and impacts are simulated based on a modified version of Tol's FUND model. The CCRAF is based on series of log-linear equations with deterministic and random components and is implemented using a Monte-Carlo method with up to 5000 variants per set of fixed input parameters. The shape and coefficients of CCRAF equations are derived from regression analyses of historic data and expert assessments. There are two types of random components in CCRAF - one reflects a year-to-year fluctuations around the expected value of a given variable (e.g., standard error of the annual GDP growth) and another is fixed within each CCRAF variant and represents some essential constants within a "world" represented by that variant (e.g., the value of climate sensitivity). Both types of random components are drawn from pre-defined probability distributions functions developed based on historic data or expert assessments. Preliminary CCRAF results emphasize the relative importance of uncertainties associated with the conversion of GHG and particulate emissions into radiative forcing and quantifying climate change effects at the regional level. A separates analysis involves an "adaptive decision-making", which optimizes the expected future policy effects given the estimated probabilistic uncertainties. As uncertainty for some variables evolve over the time steps, the decisions also adapt. This modeling approach is feasible only with explicit modeling of uncertainties.

Chromosomal inversions promote genomic islands of concerted evolution of Hsp70 genes in the Drosophila subobscura species subgroup.

PubMed

Puig Giribets, Marta; García Guerreiro, María Pilar; Santos, Mauro; Ayala, Francisco J; Tarrío, Rosa; Rodríguez-Trelles, Francisco

2018-02-07

Heat-shock (HS) assays to understand the connection between standing inversion variation and evolutionary response to climate change in Drosophila subobscura found that "warm-climate" inversion O 3+4 exhibits non-HS levels of Hsp70 protein like those of "cold-climate" O ST after HS induction. This was unexpected, as overexpression of Hsp70 can incur multiple fitness costs. To understand the genetic basis of this finding, we have determined the genomic sequence organization of the Hsp70 family in four different inversions, including O ST , O 3+4 , O 3+4+8 and O 3+4+16 , using as outgroups the remainder of the subobscura species subgroup, namely Drosophila madeirensis and Drosophila guanche. We found (i) in all the assayed lines, the Hsp70 family resides in cytological locus 94A and consists of only two genes, each with four HS elements (HSEs) and three GAGA sites on its promoter. Yet, in O ST , the family is comparatively more compact; (ii) the two Hsp70 copies evolve in concert through gene conversion, except in D. guanche; (iii) within D. subobscura, the rate of concerted evolution is strongly structured by inversion, being higher in O ST than in O 3+4 ; and (iv) in D. guanche, the two copies accumulated multiple differences, including a newly evolved "gap-type" HSE2. The absence of concerted evolution in this species may be related to a long-gone-unnoticed observation that it lacks Hsp70 HS response, perhaps because it has evolved within a narrow thermal range in an oceanic island. Our results point to a previously unrealized link between inversions and concerted evolution, with potentially major implications for understanding genome evolution. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

America's Climate Choices: Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, A.; Fri, R.; Brown, M.; Geller, L.

2010-12-01

At the request of Congress, the National Academy of Sciences convened a series of coordinated activities to provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond to climate change. This suite of activities included a study on strategies for limiting the magnitude of future climate change (i.e. mitigation). Limiting climate change is a global effort that will require significant reductions of greenhouse gas emissions by countries around the world. U.S. action alone is not sufficient, but it is clearly necessary for the U.S. to make significant contributions to the global effort. While efforts to limit climate change are already underway across the U.S. (by state and local governments, businesses, non-governmental organizations, and individual households), we currently lack a framework of federal policies to help assure that all key actors participating and working towards coherent national goals. This study recommends a U.S. policy goal stated as a budget for cumulative greenhouse gas emissions through the year 2050, and offers an illustrative range of budget numbers derived from recent work of the Energy Modeling Forum. The report evaluates the types of changes to our nation's energy system that are needed to meet a budget in the proposed range, which leads to a conclusion that the U.S. must get started now in aggressively pursuing available emission reduction opportunities, while also investing heavily in R&D to create new emission reduction opportunities. The study offers a series of recommendations for how to move ahead in pursing these near-term and longer-term opportunities. The recommendations address the need for a carbon pricing system and strategically-targeted complimentary policies, for effective international engagement, for careful balancing of federal with state/local action, and for consideration of equity and employment impacts of response policies. The study also discusses the need to design policies that are both durable over the long-term, and have the capacity to evolve in response to new scientific, technological, and economic developments.

Slow science: the value of long ocean biogeochemistry records.

PubMed

Henson, Stephanie A

2014-09-28

Sustained observations (SOs) have provided invaluable information on the ocean's biology and biogeochemistry for over 50 years. They continue to play a vital role in elucidating the functioning of the marine ecosystem, particularly in the light of ongoing climate change. Repeated, consistent observations have provided the opportunity to resolve temporal and/or spatial variability in ocean biogeochemistry, which has driven exploration of the factors controlling biological parameters and processes. Here, I highlight some of the key breakthroughs in biological oceanography that have been enabled by SOs, which include areas such as trophic dynamics, understanding variability, improved biogeochemical models and the role of ocean biology in the global carbon cycle. In the near future, SOs are poised to make progress on several fronts, including detecting climate change effects on ocean biogeochemistry, high-resolution observations of physical-biological interactions and greater observational capability in both the mesopelagic zone and harsh environments, such as the Arctic. We are now entering a new era for biological SOs, one in which our motivations have evolved from the need to acquire basic understanding of the ocean's state and variability, to a need to understand ocean biogeochemistry in the context of increasing pressure in the form of climate change, overfishing and eutrophication.

[The climate change policy of the city of São Paulo, Brazil: reflexivity and permeability of the health sector].

PubMed

Landin, Rubens; Giatti, Leandro Luiz

2014-10-01

São Paulo is today an unsustainable city in which social and environmental vulnerabilities are obliged to tackle the uncertainties of climate change. To face up to this situation, in 2009 the city unveiled its Climate Change Policy. The scope of this paper is to analyze how the health sector is preparing to contribute to the implementation of this policy by 2012. Content analysis was the method adopted by examining official documents and conducting semi-structured interviews. In a context of social transformation affected by environmental degradation and socio-environmental consequences there is a need for the cessation of inertia and a demand for new knowledge systems. The outcomes of the study showed a positive intersectorial dialectic relationship, since the research hypothesis was that the health sector would be called upon to back actions on air quality monitoring. Its verification showed a broad scope introducing health promotion and preventive actions as the determinant focus, especially influencing other public policies. Thus, the process under scrutiny acquired reflexivity when evolving with interactive measures breaking with the traditional sectorial and reductionist policy model. It shows an intersectorial perspective based on the importance of issues related to local public health.

Reconciling Scale Mismatch in Water Governance, Hydro-climatic Processes and Infrastructure Systems of Water Supply in Las Vegas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M. E.; Alarcon, T.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

2013-12-01

Water resource systems are a classic example of a common pool resource due to the high cost of exclusion and the subtractability of the resource; for common pool resources, the performance of governance systems primarily depends on how well matched the institutional arrangements and rules are to the biophysical conditions and social norms. Changes in water governance, hydro-climatic processes and infrastructure systems occur on disparate temporal and spatial scales. A key challenge is the gap between current climate change model resolution, and the spatial and temporal scale of urban water supply decisions. This gap will lead to inappropriate management policies if not mediated through a carefully crafted decision making process. Traditional decision support and planning methods (DSPM) such as classical decision analysis are not equipped to deal with a non-static climate. While emerging methods such as decision scaling, robust decision making and real options are designed to deal with a changing climate, governance systems have evolved under the assumption of a static climate and it is not clear if these methods are well suited to the existing governance regime. In our study, these questions are contextualized by examining an urban water utility that has made significant changes in policy to adapt to changing conditions: the Southern Nevada Water Authority (SNWA) which serves metropolitan Las Vegas. Like most desert cities, Las Vegas exists because of water; the artesian springs of the Las Vegas Valley once provided an ample water supply for Native Americans, ranchers and later a small railroad city. However, population growth has increased demands far beyond local supplies. The area now depends on the Colorado River for the majority of its water supply. Natural climate variability with periodic droughts has further challenged water providers; projected climate changes and further population growth will exacerbate these challenges. Las Vegas is selected as a case study due to the combined challenges of population growth and climate change, common in the arid west, and due its cooperative institutional response to these challenges, unprecedented in the arid west. To begin to disentangle this question we have analyzed the institutional arrangements and rules which govern water decision making in the Las Vegas Valley and evaluated the existing DSPM used by the SNWA and partner utilities. Presented here are the preliminary results from an ongoing project.

Intensification of Climate-Carbon Feedbacks after 2100 and Implications for Disturbance Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randerson, J. T.; Lindsay, K. T.; Munoz, E.; Fu, W.; Hoffman, F. M.; Moore, J. K.; Doney, S. C.; Mahowald, N. M.; Bonan, G. B.

2014-12-01

Long-term ecosystem and carbon cycle responses to climate change are needed to inform mitigation policy, yet our understanding of how these responses may evolve after 2100 remains highly uncertain. Using the Community Earth System Model (version 1.0), we quantified climate-carbon feedbacks from 1850 to 2300 for the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (and its extension). In three simulations, land and ocean biogeochemical models were exposed to the same trajectory of increasing atmospheric CO2. In one simulation, atmospheric CO2 and other forcing agents were radiatively active (fully coupled), modifying temperature and other aspects of climate. In another, CO2 was radiatively uncoupled, and in the third, both CO2 and other atmospheric forcing agents (including CH4, N2O, and aerosols) were radiatively uncoupled. In the fully coupled simulation, global mean air temperatures increased by 9.3°C from 1850 to 2300, with 4.4°C of this warming occurring after 2100. Without radiative forcing from CO2, cumulative warming was much lower at 2.4°C, but exceeding 2°C targets needed to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system. In response to climate change, ocean and land rates of carbon uptake were reduced, with the size of the impact increasing over time. In the oceans, reductions in cumulative carbon uptake from climate change increased from 3% during the 20th century to 40% during the 23rd century. By 2300, climate change had reduced cumulative ocean uptake by 330 Pg C, from 1410 Pg C to 1080 Pg C. Most of this reduction occurred after 2100 as a consequence of increases in surface stratification and decreases in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Land fluxes similarly diverged over time, with climate change inducing a cumulative loss of 230 Pg C by 2300. On land the intensification of the hydrological cycle globally increased terrestrial water storage, although asymmetric responses were observed across different continents in the tropics. Net loss of carbon from tropical forest ecosystems, in response to large temperature increases, were partly offset by increases in carbon uptake in temperate and high latitude ecosystems. We conclude by presenting an assessment of how climate variability over land and burned area change century by century.

Mechanisms of shrub encroachment into Northern Chihuahuan Desert grasslands and impacts of climate change investigated using a cellular automata model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caracciolo, Domenico; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Noto, Leonardo Valerio; Collins, Scott L.

2016-05-01

Arid and semiarid grasslands of southwestern North America have changed dramatically over the last 150 years as a result of woody plant encroachment. Overgrazing, reduced fire frequency, and climate change are known drivers of woody plant encroachment into grasslands. In this study, relatively simple algorithms for encroachment factors (i.e., grazing, grassland fires, and seed dispersal by grazers) are proposed and implemented in the ecohydrological Cellular-Automata Tree Grass Shrub Simulator (CATGraSS). CATGraSS is used in a 7.3 km2 rectangular domain located in central New Mexico along a zone of grassland to shrubland transition, where shrub encroachment is currently active. CATGraSS is calibrated and used to investigate the relative contributions of grazing, fire frequency, seed dispersal by herbivores and climate change on shrub abundance over a 150-year period of historical shrub encroachment. The impact of future climate change is examined using a model output that realistically represents current vegetation cover as initial condition, in a series of stochastic CATGraSS future climate simulations. Model simulations are found to be highly sensitive to the initial distribution of shrub cover. Encroachment factors more actively lead to shrub propagation within the domain when the model starts with randomly distributed individual shrubs. However, when shrubs are naturally evolved into clusters, the model response to encroachment factors is muted unless the effect of seed dispersal by herbivores is amplified. The relative contribution of different drivers on modeled shrub encroachment varied based on the initial shrub cover condition used in the model. When historical weather data is used, CATGraSS predicted loss of shrub and grass cover during the 1950 s drought. While future climate change is found to amplify shrub encroachment (∼13% more shrub cover by 2100), grazing remains the dominant factor promoting shrub encroachment. When we modeled future climate change, however, encroachment still occurred at a reduced rate in the absence of grazing along with pre-grazing fire frequency because of lower shrub water stress leading to reduced shrub mortality which increases the probability of shrub establishment.

eVolv2k: A new ice core-based volcanic forcing reconstruction for the past 2000 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toohey, Matthew; Sigl, Michael

2016-04-01

Radiative forcing resulting from stratospheric aerosols produced by major volcanic eruptions is a dominant driver of climate variability in the Earth's past. The ability of climate model simulations to accurately recreate past climate is tied directly to the accuracy of the volcanic forcing timeseries used in the simulations. We present here a new volcanic forcing reconstruction, based on newly updated ice core composites from Antarctica and Greenland. Ice core records are translated into stratospheric aerosol properties for use in climate models through the Easy Volcanic Aerosol (EVA) module, which provides an analytic representation of volcanic stratospheric aerosol forcing based on available observations and aerosol model results, prescribing the aerosol's radiative properties and primary modes of spatial and temporal variability. The evolv2k volcanic forcing dataset covers the past 2000 years, and has been provided for use in the Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP), and VolMIP experiments within CMIP6. Here, we describe the construction of the eVolv2k data set, compare with prior forcing sets, and show initial simulation results.

Combining Population Structure with Historic Abitoic Processes to Better Understand Species and Community Range Shifts in Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, N. M.

2015-12-01

The evolution and speciation of plants is directly tied to the environment as the constrained stages of dispersal creates strong genetic differentiation among populations. This can result in differing genetic patterns between nuclear and chloroplast loci, where genes are inherited differently and dispersed via separate vectors. By developing distribution models based on genetic patterns found within a species, it is possible to begin understanding the influence of historic geomorphic and/or climatic processes on population evolution. If genetic patterns of the current range correlate with specific patterns of climate variability within the Pleistocene, it is possible that future shifts in species distribution in response to climate change can be more accurately modelled due to the historic signature that is found within inherited genes. Preliminary genetic analyses of Linanthus dichotomus, an annual herb distributed across California, suggests that the current taxonomic treatment does not accurately depict how this species is evolving. Genetic patterns of chloroplast genes suggest that populations are more correlated with biogeography than what the current nomenclature states. Additionally, chloroplast and nuclear genes show discrepancies in the dispersal across the landscape, suggesting pollinator driven gene flow overcoming seed dispersal boundaries. By comparing discrepancies between pollinator and seed induced gene flow we may be able to gain insight into historical pollinator communities within the Pleistocene. This information can then be applied to projected climate models to more accurately understand how species and/or communities will respond to a changing environment.

From products to processes: Academic events to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Addor, Nans; Ewen, Tracy; Johnson, Leigh; Ćöltekin, Arzu; Derungs, Curdin; Muccione, Veruska

2015-08-01

In the context of climate change, both climate researchers and decision makers deal with uncertainties, but these uncertainties differ in fundamental ways. They stem from different sources, cover different temporal and spatial scales, might or might not be reducible or quantifiable, and are generally difficult to characterize and communicate. Hence, a mutual understanding between current and future climate researchers and decision makers must evolve for adaptation strategies and planning to progress. Iterative two-way dialogue can help to improve the decision making process by bridging current top-down and bottom-up approaches. One way to cultivate such interactions is by providing venues for these actors to interact and exchange on the uncertainties they face. We use a workshop-seminar series involving academic researchers, students, and decision makers as an opportunity to put this idea into practice and evaluate it. Seminars, case studies, and a round table allowed participants to reflect upon and experiment with uncertainties. An opinion survey conducted before and after the workshop-seminar series allowed us to qualitatively evaluate its influence on the participants. We find that the event stimulated new perspectives on research products and communication processes, and we suggest that similar events may ultimately contribute to the midterm goal of improving support for decision making in a changing climate. Therefore, we recommend integrating bridging events into university curriculum to foster interdisciplinary and iterative dialogue among researchers, decision makers, and students.

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhen; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-09-05

Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH 4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO 2 , CH 4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH 4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH 4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH 4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH 4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH 4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH 4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m -2 to 0.19 W·m -2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH 4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH 4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH 4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

Extraction of Urban Morphology Parameters from Generic European Datasets: A Case Study for Antwerp, Berlin and Almada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart

2014-05-01

Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heat waves. The response of urban societies to the evolving climate depends not only on their regional climate characteristics but also on other local factors such as the urban heat island effect. Simulation of this phenomenon with local urban climate models requires comprehensive information about the urban morphology. This study focusses on the extraction of the planar and frontal area indices from detailed 3D city models and their relationship with the European Soil Sealing Level database from the European Environment Agency. These parameters have been calculated on a 1km2 grid and compared with soil sealing values aggregated at the same spatial resolution. The optimal size of the grid is a trade-off between the level of detail and the robustness of the established relationships by reducing the scatter at small scales. Moreover, the transferability of the results to other geographical areas has been investigated. The analyses have been conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission and include the cities of Antwerp (BE), Berlin (DE) and Almada (PT) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. First results show a correlation of 70% between the planar area index and the averaged soil sealing using a linear regression model at a 1km scale. Moreover, a good correspondence has been found between the relationships for Antwerp and Berlin which is promising for urban climate modellers to reduce model complexity and analyse various climate scenarios in an effective way.

Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change

PubMed Central

Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L.; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin

2017-01-01

Wetland methane (CH4) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO2, CH4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m−2 to 0.19 W·m−2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the “worst-case” RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C. PMID:28827347

Neutral biogeography and the evolution of climatic niches.

PubMed

Boucher, Florian C; Thuiller, Wilfried; Davies, T Jonathan; Lavergne, Sébastien

2014-05-01

Recent debate on whether climatic niches are conserved through time has focused on how phylogenetic niche conservatism can be measured by deviations from a Brownian motion model of evolutionary change. However, there has been no evaluation of this methodological approach. In particular, the fact that climatic niches are usually obtained from distribution data and are thus heavily influenced by biogeographic factors has largely been overlooked. Our main objective here was to test whether patterns of climatic niche evolution that are frequently observed might arise from neutral dynamics rather than from adaptive scenarios. We developed a model inspired by neutral biodiversity theory, where individuals disperse, compete, and undergo speciation independently of climate. We then sampled the climatic niches of species according to their geographic position and showed that even when species evolve independently of climate, their niches can nonetheless exhibit evolutionary patterns strongly differing from Brownian motion. Indeed, climatic niche evolution is better captured by a model of punctuated evolution with constraints due to landscape boundaries, two features that are traditionally interpreted as evidence for selective processes acting on the niche. We therefore suggest that deviation from Brownian motion alone should not be used as evidence for phylogenetic niche conservatism but that information on phenotypic traits directly linked to physiology is required to demonstrate that climatic niches have been conserved through time.

Neutral biogeography and the evolution of climatic niches

PubMed Central

Boucher, Florian C.; Thuiller, Wilfried; Davies, T. Jonathan; Lavergne, Sébastien

2014-01-01

Recent debate on whether climatic niches are conserved through time has focused on how phylogenetic niche conservatism can be measured by deviations from a Brownian motion model of evolutionary change. However, there has been no evaluation of this methodological approach. In particular, the fact that climatic niches are usually obtained from distribution data and are thus heavily influenced by biogeographic factors has largely been overlooked. Our main objective here was to test whether patterns of climatic niche evolution that are frequently observed might arise from neutral dynamics rather than adaptive scenarios. We develop a model inspired by Neutral Biodiversity Theory, where individuals disperse, compete, and undergo speciation independently of climate. We then sample the climatic niches of species according to their geographic position and show that even when species evolved independently of climate, their niches can nonetheless exhibit evolutionary patterns strongly differing from Brownian motion. Indeed, climatic niche evolution is better captured by a model of punctuated evolution with constraints due to landscape boundaries, two features that are traditionally interpreted as evidence for selective processes acting on the niche. We therefore suggest that deviation from Brownian motion alone should not be used as evidence for phylogenetic niche conservatism, but that information on phenotypic traits directly linked to physiology is required to demonstrate that climatic niches have been conserved through time. PMID:24739191

Dissemination of Climate Model Output to the Public and Commercial Sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robert Stockwell, PhD

2010-09-23

Climate is defined by the Glossary of Meteorology as the mean of atmospheric variables over a period of time ranging from as short as a few months to multiple years and longer. Although the term climate is often used to refer to long-term weather statistics, the broader definition of climate is the time evolution of a system consisting of the atmosphere, hydrosphere, lithosphere, and biosphere. Physical, chemical, and biological processes are involved in interactions among the components of the climate system. Vegetation, soil moisture, and glaciers are part of the climate system in addition to the usually considered temperature andmore » precipitation (Pielke, 2008). Climate change refers to any systematic change in the long-term statistics of climate elements (such as temperature, pressure, or winds) sustained over several decades or longer. Climate change can be initiated by external forces, such as cyclical variations in the Earth's solar orbit that are thought to have caused glacial and interglacial periods within the last 2 million years (Milankovitch, 1941). However, a linear response to astronomical forcing does not explain many other observed glacial and interglacial cycles (Petit et al., 1999). It is now understood that climate is influenced by the interaction of solar radiation with atmospheric greenhouse gasses (e.g., carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons, methane, nitrous oxide, etc.), aerosols (airborne particles), and Earth's surface. A significant aspect of climate are the interannual cycles, such as the El Nino La Nina cycle which profoundly affects the weather in North America but is outside the scope of weather forecasts. Some of the most significant advances in understanding climate change have evolved from the recognition of the influence of ocean circulations upon the atmosphere (IPCC, 2007). Human activity can affect the climate system through increasing concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases, air pollution, increasing concentrations of aerosol, and land alteration. A particular concern is that atmospheric levels of CO{sub 2} may be rising faster than at any time in Earth's history, except possibly following rare events like impacts from large extraterrestrial objects (AMS, 2007). Atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations have increased since the mid-1700s through fossil fuel burning and changes in land use, with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1900. The increased levels of CO{sub 2} will remain in the atmosphere for hundreds to thousands of years. The complexity of the climate system makes it difficult to predict specific aspects of human-induced climate change, such as exactly how and where changes will occur, and their magnitude. The Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) was established by World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the United Nations in 1988. The IPCC was tasked with assessing the scientific, technical and socioeconomic information needed to understand the risk of human-induced climate change, its observed and projected impacts, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The IPCC concluded in its Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and that most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increased in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (IPCC, 2007).« less

Introducing a New Concept Inventory on Climate Change to Support Undergraduate Instruction, Teacher Education, Education Research, and Project Evaluation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morrow, C. A.; Monsaas, J.; Katzenberger, J.; Afolabi, C. Y.

2013-12-01

The Concept Inventory on Climate Change (CICC) is a new research-based, multiple-choice 'test' that provides a powerful new assessment tool for undergraduate instructors, teacher educators, education researchers, and project evaluators. This presentation will describe the features and the development process of the (CICC). This includes insights about how the development team (co-authors) integrated and augmented their multi-disciplinary expertise. The CICC has been developed in the context of a popular introductory undergraduate weather and climate course at a southeastern research university (N~400-500 per semester). The CICC is not a test for a grade, but is intended to be a useful measure of how well a given teaching and learning experience has succeeded in improving understanding about climate change and related climate concepts. The science content addressed by the CICC is rooted in the national consensus document, 'Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science'. The CICC has been designed to support undergraduate instruction, and may be valuable in comparable contexts that teach about climate change. CICC results can help to inform decisions about the effectiveness of teaching strategies by 1) flagging conceptual issues (PRE-instruction); and 2) detecting conceptual change (POST-instruction). Specific CICC items and their answer choices are informed by the research literature on common misunderstandings about climate and climate change. Each CICC item is rated on a 3-tier scale of the cognitive sophistication the item is calling for, and there is a balance among all three tiers across the full instrument. The CICC development process has involved data-driven changes to successive versions. Data sources have included item statistics from the administration of progressively evolved versions of the CICC in the weather and climate course, group interviews with students, and expert review by climate scientists, educators, and project evaluators based primarily in the US and Canada. The development team provided an exceptionally well integrated, multi-disciplinary expertise in climate science, climate education, education research, and psychometrics. The valuable integration of the team's expertise was driven by: 1) the prior interdisciplinary inclinations of key team members, which made it natural to openly inquire and learn across boundaries of expertise; and 2) the willingness of key team members to become respectful teachers of essential knowledge to other team members. These qualities, in combination with reviewer contributions, have brought the leading edges of natural and social science research together to produce the CICC. This work has been partially supported by a NASA award to the Georgia State University Research Foundation (NNX09AL69G).

“Black Swans” of Hydrology: Can our Models Address the Science of Hydrologic Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kumar, P.

2009-12-01

Coupled models of terrestrial hydrology and climate have grown in complexity leading to better understanding of the coupling between the hydrosphere, biosphere, and the climate system. During the past two decades, these models have evolved through generational changes as they have grown in sophistication in their ability to resolve spatial heterogeneity as well as vegetation dynamics and biogeochemistry. These developments have, in part, been driven by data collection efforts ranging from focused field campaigns to long-term observational networks, advances in remote sensing and other measurement technologies, along with sophisticated estimation and assimilation methods. However, the hydrologic cycle is changing leading to unexpected and unanticipated behavior through emergent dynamics and patterns that are not part of the historical milieu. Is there a new thinking that is needed to address this challenge? The goal of this talk is to draw from the modeling developments in the past two decades to foster a debate for moving forward.

Contrasting water strategies of two Mediterranean shrubs of limited distribution: uncertain future under a drier climate.

PubMed

Lázaro-Nogal, Ana; Forner, Alicia; Traveset, Anna; Valladares, Fernando

2013-12-01

Plants have evolved different strategies to cope with drought, involving alternative ecophysiologies and different levels of plasticity. These strategies are critical for species of limited distribution, which are especially vulnerable to the current rates of rapid environmental change. The aim of this study was to assess the water strategy of two species with limited distribution, Cneorum tricoccon L. and Rhamnus ludovici-salvatoris Chodat., and evaluate their interpopulation variability along an aridity gradient to estimate their vulnerability to a drier climate. We measured different ecophysiological traits influenced by drought--stomatal conductance, maximum photochemical efficiency of photosynthesis II, carbon isotope ratio and chlorophyll concentration--in two climatically contrasting years, before and during summer drought. Both species were vulnerable to drought at the aridity limit of the gradient, but showed contrasting water strategies: while C. tricoccon was consistent in its water conservation strategy across the aridity gradient, R. ludovici-salvatoris was not, displaying higher and more variable stomatal conductances and being able to increase water-use efficiency at the most xeric sites. Changes in length and intensity of drought events may favor one species' strategy to the detriment of the other: C. tricoccon is more vulnerable to chronic and prolonged droughts, whereas short but acute droughts might have a stronger effect on R. ludovici-salvatoris. In those communities where these two species coexist, such different strategies might lead to changes in community structure under climate change scenarios, with unknown cascade effects on ecosystem functioning.

Broadening GHG accounting with LCA: application to a waste management business unit.

PubMed

Fallaha, Sophie; Martineau, Geneviève; Bécaert, Valérie; Margni, Manuele; Deschênes, Louise; Samson, Réjean; Aoustin, Emmanuelle

2009-11-01

In an effort to obtain the most accurate climate change impact assessment, greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting is evolving to include life-cycle thinking. This study (1) identifies similarities and key differences between GHG accounting and life-cycle assessment (LCA), (2) compares them on a consistent basis through a case study on a waste management business unit. First, GHG accounting is performed. According to the GHG Protocol, annual emissions are categorized into three scopes: direct GHG emissions (scope 1), indirect emissions related to electricity, heat and steam production (scope 2) and other indirect emissions (scope 3). The LCA is then structured into a comparable framework: each LCA process is disaggregated into these three scopes, the annual operating activities are assessed, and the environmental impacts are determined using the IMPACT2002+ method. By comparing these two approaches it is concluded that both LCA and GHG accounting provide similar climate change impact results as the same major GHG contributors are determined for scope 1 emissions. The emissions from scope 2 appear negligible whereas emissions from scope 3 cannot be neglected since they contribute to around 10% of the climate change impact of the waste management business unit. This statement is strengthened by the fact that scope 3 generates 75% of the resource use damage and 30% of the ecosystem quality damage categories. The study also shows that LCA can help in setting up the framework for a annual GHG accounting by determining the major climate change contributors.

Secrets of the Sediments: Using ANDRILL's Scientific Adventure on Ice to Transfer Climate Change Science to K-12 Audiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, L. T.; Dahlman, L.; Frisch-Gleason, R.; Harwood, D.; Pound, K.; Rack, F.; Riesselman, C.; Trummel, E.; Tuzzi, E.; Winter, D.

2008-12-01

Antarctica's harsh environment and the compelling story of living and working there, provides the backdrop for hooking the interest of young learners on science research and the nature of science. By using the adventure stories of today's researcher-explorers, teachers accompanying the ANDRILL team have taken the technical science of drilling rock cores to understand the history of climate change and the advance and retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet, and translated it for non-technical audiences from K-12 school children, to adult community groups. In order to understand the important issues surrounding global climate change, members of the public need access to accurate and relevant information, high quality educational materials, and a variety of learning opportunities in different learning environments. By taking lessons learned from early virtual polar adventure learning expeditions like Will Steger's Trans-Antarctic Expedition, coupled with educators-in-the-field programs like TEA (Teachers Experiencing Antarctica and the Arctic), ARMADA and Polar Trec, ANDRILL's Education and Outreach Program has evolved into successful and far-reaching integrated education projects including 1) the ARISE (ANDRILL Research Immersion for Science Educators) Program, 2) Climate Change Student Summits, 3) the development of Flexhibit (flexible exhibit) teaching resources, 4) virtual online learning communities, and 5) partnering young researchers with teachers and classrooms. Formal evaluations indicate lasting interest in science studies on the part of students and an increase in teachers' scientific background knowledge.

Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) Final Campaign Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kleinman, LI; Sedlacek, A. J.

2016-01-01

The Biomass Burning Observation Project (BBOP) was conducted to obtain a better understanding of how aerosols generated from biomass fires affect the atmosphere and climate. It is estimated that 40% of carbonaceous aerosol produced originates from biomass burning—enough to affect regional and global climate. Several biomass-burning studies have focused on tropical climates; however, few campaigns have been conducted within the United States, where millions of acres are burned each year, trending to higher values and greater climate impacts because of droughts in the West. Using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Aerial Facility (AAF), the BBOP deployed the Gulfstream-1 (G-1) aircraftmore » over smoke plumes from active wildfire and agricultural burns to help identify the impact of these events and how impacts evolve with time. BBOP was one of very few studies that targeted the near-field time evolution of aerosols and aimed to obtain a process-level understanding of the large changes that occur within a few hours of atmospheric processing.« less

The climate and air-quality benefits of wind and solar power in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Millstein, Dev; Wiser, Ryan; Bolinger, Mark; Barbose, Galen

2017-09-01

Wind and solar energy reduce combustion-based electricity generation and provide air-quality and greenhouse gas emission benefits. These benefits vary dramatically by region and over time. From 2007 to 2015, solar and wind power deployment increased rapidly while regulatory changes and fossil fuel price changes led to steep cuts in overall power-sector emissions. Here we evaluate how wind and solar climate and air-quality benefits evolved during this time period. We find cumulative wind and solar air-quality benefits of 2015 US$29.7-112.8 billion mostly from 3,000 to 12,700 avoided premature mortalities, and cumulative climate benefits of 2015 US$5.3-106.8 billion. The ranges span results across a suite of air-quality and health impact models and social cost of carbon estimates. We find that binding cap-and-trade pollutant markets may reduce these cumulative benefits by up to 16%. In 2015, based on central estimates, combined marginal benefits equal 7.3 ¢ kWh-1 (wind) and 4.0 ¢ kWh-1 (solar).

Planetary Vital Signs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennel, Charles; Briggs, Stephen; Victor, David

2016-07-01

The climate is beginning to behave in unusual ways. The global temperature reached unprecedented highs in 2015 and 2016, which led climatologists to predict an enormous El Nino that would cure California's record drought. It did not happen the way they expected. That tells us just how unreliable temperature has become as an indicator of important aspects of climate change. The world needs to go beyond global temperature to a set of planetary vital signs. Politicians should not over focus policy on one indicator. They need to look at the balance of evidence. A coalition of scientists and policy makers should start to develop vital signs at once, since they should be ready at the entry into force of the Paris Agreement in 2020. But vital signs are only the beginning. The world needs to learn how to use the vast knowledge we will be acquiring about climate change and its impacts. Is it not time to use all the tools at hand- observations from space and ground networks; demographic, economic and societal measures; big data statistical techniques; and numerical models-to inform politicians, managers, and the public of the evolving risks of climate change at global, regional, and local scales? Should we not think in advance of an always-on social and information network that provides decision-ready knowledge to those who hold the responsibility to act, wherever they are, at times of their choosing?

A Water Grid for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leathard, A.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.

2009-04-01

Anthropogenically aggravated climate change associated with intensive expansion of the global economy has increased the demand for water whilst simultaneously altering natural variability in its distribution, straining water resources unsustainably and inequitably in many parts of the world, increasing drought risk, and encouraging decision-makers to reconsider the security of water supply. Indeed, in the absence of additional resource development, contemporary planning forecasts imply increased water stress across much of the United Kingdom. The regulatory authorities of the UK currently promote increased efficiency of water delivery and consumption combined with a portfolio of financial instruments as a means of reducing water stress, maintaining present levels of consumer service without significant further exploitation of the environment. Despite an increasingly sophisticated understanding of climate change and its effects, significant uncertainty remains in the quantification of its impacts on the water sector, and questions persist as to the effectiveness of such demand management measures compared to that of more traditional infrastructure improvements. Faced with possible futures provided for by detrimentally over-stressed resources, what opportunities remain for future strategic development in the UK? Is there a single national strategy that is both politically and socially acceptable? This ongoing study aims to evolve robust national adaptation strategies by quantifying the projected impacts of climate change across mainland UK using multi-model and perturbed-physics ensembles of projected future climate, encapsulating uncertainties in a scenario-driven integrated water resources model incorporating socio-economic elements.

An uncertainty-based framework to quantifying climate change impacts on coastal flood vulnerability: case study of New York City.

PubMed

Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad

2017-10-17

The continued development efforts around the world, growing population, and the increased probability of occurrence of extreme hydrologic events have adversely affected natural and built environments. Flood damages and loss of lives from the devastating storms, such as Irene and Sandy on the East Coast of the USA, are examples of the vulnerability to flooding that even developed countries have to face. The odds of coastal flooding disasters have been increased due to accelerated sea level rise, climate change impacts, and communities' interest to live near the coastlines. Climate change, for instance, is becoming a major threat to sustainable development because of its adverse impacts on the hydrologic cycle. Effective management strategies are thus required for flood vulnerability reduction and disaster preparedness. This paper is an extension to the flood resilience studies in the New York City coastal watershed. Here, a framework is proposed to quantify coastal flood vulnerability while accounting for climate change impacts. To do so, a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach that combines watershed characteristics (factors) and their weights is proposed to quantify flood vulnerability. Among the watershed characteristics, potential variation in the hydrologic factors under climate change impacts is modeled utilizing the general circulation models' (GCMs) outputs. The considered factors include rainfall, extreme water level, and sea level rise that exacerbate flood vulnerability through increasing exposure and susceptibility to flooding. Uncertainty in the weights as well as values of factors is incorporated in the analysis using the Monte Carlo (MC) sampling method by selecting the best-fitted distributions to the parameters with random nature. A number of low impact development (LID) measures are then proposed to improve watershed adaptive capacity to deal with coastal flooding. Potential range of current and future vulnerability to flooding is estimated with and without consideration of climate change impacts and after implementation of LIDs. Results show that climate change has the potential to increase rainfall intensity, flood volume, floodplain extent, and flood depth in the watershed. The results also reveal that improving system resilience by reinforcing the adaptation capacity through implementing LIDs could mitigate flood vulnerability. Moreover, the results indicate the significant effect of uncertainties, arising from the factors' weights as well as climate change, impacts modeling approach, on quantifying flood vulnerability. This study underlines the importance of developing applicable schemes to quantify coastal flood vulnerability for evolving future responses to adverse impacts of climate change.

Science and Technology to Support Fresh Water Availability in the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-11-01

expand research and monitoring efforts to better understand the water cycle , its variability and relation to global climate change, and to provide basic...hydrologi- cal processes on the distribution, structure, and function of ecosys- tems, and on the effects of biotic processes on elements of the water ... cycle .”22 The science has evolved from one that simply indicated what minimum flows might be needed to maintain a particular spe- cies in a river, to

Evolutionary bursts in Euphorbia (Euphorbiaceae) are linked with photosynthetic pathway.

PubMed

Horn, James W; Xi, Zhenxiang; Riina, Ricarda; Peirson, Jess A; Yang, Ya; Dorsey, Brian L; Berry, Paul E; Davis, Charles C; Wurdack, Kenneth J

2014-12-01

The mid-Cenozoic decline of atmospheric CO2 levels that promoted global climate change was critical to shaping contemporary arid ecosystems. Within angiosperms, two CO2 -concentrating mechanisms (CCMs)-crassulacean acid metabolism (CAM) and C4 -evolved from the C3 photosynthetic pathway, enabling more efficient whole-plant function in such environments. Many angiosperm clades with CCMs are thought to have diversified rapidly due to Miocene aridification, but links between this climate change, CCM evolution, and increased net diversification rates (r) remain to be further understood. Euphorbia (∼2000 species) includes a diversity of CAM-using stem succulents, plus a single species-rich C4 subclade. We used ancestral state reconstructions with a dated molecular phylogeny to reveal that CCMs independently evolved 17-22 times in Euphorbia, principally from the Miocene onwards. Analyses assessing among-lineage variation in r identified eight Euphorbia subclades with significantly increased r, six of which have a close temporal relationship with a lineage-corresponding CCM origin. Our trait-dependent diversification analysis indicated that r of Euphorbia CCM lineages is approximately threefold greater than C3 lineages. Overall, these results suggest that CCM evolution in Euphorbia was likely an adaptive strategy that enabled the occupation of increased arid niche space accompanying Miocene expansion of arid ecosystems. These opportunities evidently facilitated recent, replicated bursts of diversification in Euphorbia. © 2014 The Author(s). Evolution © 2014 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Epoch-based likelihood models reveal no evidence for accelerated evolution of viviparity in squamate reptiles in response to cenozoic climate change.

PubMed

King, Benedict; Lee, Michael S Y

2015-09-01

A broad scale analysis of the evolution of viviparity across nearly 4,000 species of squamates revealed that origins increase in frequency toward the present, raising the question of whether rates of change have accelerated. We here use simulations to show that the increased frequency is within the range expected given that the number of squamate lineages also increases with time. Novel, epoch-based methods implemented in BEAST (which allow rates of discrete character evolution to vary across time-slices) also give congruent results, with recent epochs having very similar rates to older epochs. Thus, contrary to expectations, there was no accelerated burst of origins of viviparity in response to global cooling during the Cenozoic or glacial cycles during the Plio-Pleistocene. However, if one accepts the conventional view that viviparity is more likely to evolve than to be lost, and also the evidence here that viviparity has evolved with similar regularity throughout the last 200 Ma, then the absence of large, ancient clades of viviparous squamates (analogs to therian mammals) requires explanation. Viviparous squamate lineages might be more prone to extinction than are oviparous lineages, due to their prevalance at high elevations and latitudes and thus greater susceptibility to climate fluctuations. If so, the directional bias in character evolution would be offset by the bias in extinction rates. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Climate science informs participatory scenario development and applications to decision making in Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welling, L. A.; Winfree, R.; Mow, J.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents unprecedented challenges for managing natural and cultural resources into the future. Impacts are expected to be highly consequential but specific effects are difficult to predict, requiring a flexible process for adaptation planning that is tightly coupled to climate science delivery systems. Scenario planning offers a tool for making science-based decisions under uncertainty. The National Park Service (NPS) is working with the Department of the Interior Climate Science Centers (CSCs), the NOAA Regional Integrated Science and Assessment teams (RISAs), and other academic, government, non-profit, and private partners to develop and apply scenarios to long-range planning and decision frameworks. In April 2012, Alaska became the first region of the NPS to complete climate change scenario planning for every national park, preserve, and monument. These areas, which collectively make up two-thirds of the total area of the NPS, are experiencing visible and measurable effects attributable to climate change. For example, thawing sea ice, glaciers and permafrost have resulted in coastal erosion, loss of irreplaceable cultural sites, slope failures, flooding of visitor access routes, and infrastructure damage. With higher temperatures and changed weather patterns, woody vegetation has expanded into northern tundra, spruce and cedar diebacks have occurred in southern Alaska, and wildland fire severity has increased. Working with partners at the Alaska Climate Science Center and the Scenario Network for Alaska Planning the NPS integrates quantitative, model-driven data with qualitative, participatory techniques to scenario creation. The approach enables managers to access and understand current climate change science in a form that is relevant for their decision making. Collaborative workshops conducted over the past two years grouped parks from Alaska's southwest, northwest, southeast, interior and central areas. The emphasis was to identify and connect climate and social drivers of change to ecological processes and decision making. Components included review and synthesis of climate observations and projections, effects and impacts, and information on other relevant factors (e.g., subsistence activities, land cover, fire activity, land use change, sea level shifts). Although workshops focused primarily on park lands and waters, nearby communities and other land management units also participated. Results include a framework through which managers are beginning to analyze uncertainties associated with climate change and ecosystem responses and evaluate appropriate and effective actions. For example, at Kenai Fjords National Park, melting from the Harding Icefield and Exit Glacier is changing how managers respond to local flooding issues. The Exit Glacier is one of the park's iconic visitor experiences and in the last four years, the road to the glacier has been subject to mid-summer/fair weather flooding which are outside the historic norms. Rather than seek a traditional solution to the issue, park management has been working with highway engineers to evolve interim solutions as this dynamic system continues to rapidly change. Climate change scenarios established a set of possible plausible futures for the park and are also being used to "wind tunnel" potential responses.

Methods and Model Dependency of Extreme Event Attribution: The 2015 European Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauser, Mathias; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Orth, René; Jézéquel, Aglaé; Haustein, Karsten; Vautard, Robert; van Oldenborgh, Geert J.; Wilcox, Laura; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

2017-10-01

Science on the role of anthropogenic influence on extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or droughts, has evolved rapidly in the past years. The approach of "event attribution" compares the occurrence-probability of an event in the present, factual climate with its probability in a hypothetical, counterfactual climate without human-induced climate change. Several methods can be used for event attribution, based on climate model simulations and observations, and usually researchers only assess a subset of methods and data sources. Here, we explore the role of methodological choices for the attribution of the 2015 meteorological summer drought in Europe. We present contradicting conclusions on the relevance of human influence as a function of the chosen data source and event attribution methodology. Assessments using the maximum number of models and counterfactual climates with pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations point to an enhanced drought risk in Europe. However, other evaluations show contradictory evidence. These results highlight the need for a multi-model and multi-method framework in event attribution research, especially for events with a low signal-to-noise ratio and high model dependency such as regional droughts.

Untangling Consequential Futures: Discovering Self-Consistent Regional and Global Multi-Sector Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

Impacts and adaptations to global change largely occur at regional scales, yet they are shaped globally through the interdependent evolution of the climate, energy, agriculture, and industrial systems. It is important for regional actors to account for the impacts of global changes on their systems in a globally consistent but regionally relevant way. This can be challenging because emerging global reference scenarios may not reflect regional challenges. Likewise, regionally specific scenarios may miss important global feedbacks. In this work, we contribute a scenario discovery framework to identify regionally-specific decision relevant scenarios from an ensemble of scenarios of global change. To this end, we generated a large ensemble of time evolving regional, multi-sector global change scenarios by a full factorial sampling of the underlying assumptions in the emerging shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Statistical and visual analytics were then used to discover which SSP assumptions are particularly consequential for various regions, considering a broad range of time-evolving metrics that encompass multiple spatial scales and sectors. In an illustrative examples, we identify the most important global change narratives to inform water resource scenarios for several geographic regions using the proposed scenario discovery framework. Our results highlight the importance of demographic and agricultural evolution compared to technical improvements in the energy sector. We show that narrowly sampling a few canonical reference scenarios provides a very narrow view of the consequence space, increasing the risk of tacitly ignoring major impacts. Even optimistic scenarios contain unintended, disproportionate regional impacts and intergenerational transfers of consequence. Formulating consequential scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures requires a better exploration of which quantitative measures of consequences are important, for whom are they important, where, and when. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support `backwards' scenario generation techniques, that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

Surface ozone seasonality under global change: Influence from dry deposition and isoprene emissions at northern mid-latitudes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clifton, O.; Paulot, F.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Malyshev, S.; Shevliakova, E.; Correa, G. J. P.; Lin, M.

2017-12-01

Identifying the contributions of nonlinear chemistry and transport to observed surface ozone seasonal cycles over land using global models relies on an accurate representation of ozone uptake by vegetation (dry deposition). It is well established that in the absence of ozone precursor emission changes, a warming climate will increase surface ozone in polluted regions, and that a rise in temperature-dependent isoprene emissions would exacerbate this "climate penalty". However, the influence of changes in ozone dry deposition, expected to evolve with climate and land use, is often overlooked in air quality projections. With a new scheme that represents dry deposition within the NOAA GFDL dynamic vegetation land model (LM3) coupled to the NOAA GFDL atmospheric chemistry-climate model (AM3), we simulate the impact of 21st century climate and land use on ozone dry deposition and isoprene emissions. This dry deposition parameterization is a version of the Wesely scheme, but uses parameters explicitly calculated by LM3 that respond to climate and land use (e.g., stomatal conductance, canopy interception of water, leaf area index). The parameterization includes a nonstomatal deposition dependence on humidity. We evaluate climatological present-day seasonal cycles of ozone deposition velocities and abundances with those observed at northern mid-latitude sites. With a set of 2010s and 2090s decadal simulations under a high climate warming scenario (RCP8.5) and a sensitivity simulation with well-mixed greenhouse gases following RCP8.5 but air pollutants held at 2010 levels (RCP8.5_WMGG), we examine changes in surface ozone seasonal cycles. We build on our previous findings, which indicate that strong reductions in anthropogenic NOx emissions under RCP8.5 cause the surface ozone seasonal cycle over the NE USA to reverse, shifting from a summer peak at present to a winter peak by 2100. Under RCP8.5_WMGG, we parse the separate effects of climate and land use on ozone dry deposition vs. isoprene emissions to quantify the impact of each process on surface ozone seasonal cycles and compare to the changes induced by declining anthropogenic NOx emissions (RCP8.5).

Detecting regional patterns of changing CO2 flux in Alaska

PubMed Central

Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Wofsy, Steven C.; Koven, Charles D.; Sweeney, Colm; Lawrence, David M.; Lindaas, Jakob; Chang, Rachel Y.-W.; Miller, Charles E.

2016-01-01

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO2 with climatically forced CO2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage and near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. Although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost. PMID:27354511

Planning for an uncertain future - Monitoring, integration, and adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Webb, Richard M. T.; Semmens, Darius J.

2009-01-01

The 6.7 billion human inhabitants of the earth have the ability to drastically alter ecosystems and the populations of species that have taken eons to evolve. By better understanding how our actions affect the environment, we stand a better chance of designing successful strategies to manage ecosystems sustainably. Toward this end, the Third Interagency Conference on Research in the Watersheds (ICRW) was convened in Estes Park, CO, on September 8-11, 2008. The Conference provided a forum to present adaptive management as a practical tool for learning how to manage complex ecosystems more sustainably. Further complexity introduced by spatially variable and continuously changing environmental drivers favors this management approach because of its emphasis on adaptation in response to changing conditions or ineffective actions. For climate change in particular, an adaptive approach can more effectively accommodate the uncertainty in future climate scenarios. Scenarios compiled by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are built on distinct economic, energy, and societal models. The scenarios predict potential changes in greenhouse gases, temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric aerosols, which would have direct or indirect impacts on the timing, volume, and quality of runoff, vegetation, snowpack, stream temperature, groundwater, thawing permafrost, and icecaps. Through presentations and field trips, researchers and stakeholders described how their findings and issues fit into the adaptive management 'learning by doing' paradigm of Assess > Design > Implement > Monitor > Evaluate > Adjust > Assess.

Detecting regional patterns of changing CO 2 flux in Alaska

DOE PAGES

Parazoo, Nicholas C.; Commane, Roisin; Wofsy, Steven C.; ...

2016-06-27

With rapid changes in climate and the seasonal amplitude of carbon dioxide (CO 2) in the Arctic, it is critical that we detect and quantify the underlying processes controlling the changing amplitude of CO 2 to better predict carbon cycle feedbacks in the Arctic climate system. We use satellite and airborne observations of atmospheric CO 2 with climatically forced CO 2 flux simulations to assess the detectability of Alaskan carbon cycle signals as future warming evolves. We find that current satellite remote sensing technologies can detect changing uptake accurately during the growing season but lack sufficient cold season coverage andmore » near-surface sensitivity to constrain annual carbon balance changes at regional scale. Airborne strategies that target regular vertical profile measurements within continental interiors are more sensitive to regional flux deeper into the cold season but currently lack sufficient spatial coverage throughout the entire cold season. Thus, the current CO 2 observing network is unlikely to detect potentially large CO 2 sources associated with deep permafrost thaw and cold season respiration expected over the next 50 y. In conclusion, although continuity of current observations is vital, strategies and technologies focused on cold season measurements (active remote sensing, aircraft, and tall towers) and systematic sampling of vertical profiles across continental interiors over the full annual cycle are required to detect the onset of carbon release from thawing permafrost.« less

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

2015-01-01

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

2015-01-01

The El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with Coupled General Circulation Models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the 21st century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly-evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of 20th century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in 21st century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with 20th century observations and more stationary during the 21st century. Finally, the model-predicted 21st century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the 21st century change in the mean state of precipitation; 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern; and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

Exploring the impact of co-varying water availability and energy price on productivity and profitability of Alpine hydropower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Botter, Martina; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Alpine hydropower systems are experiencing dramatic changes both from the point of view of hydrological conditions, e.g., water availability and frequency of extremes events, and of energy market conditions, e.g., partial or total liberalization of the market and increasing share of renewable power sources. Scientific literature has, so far, mostly focused on the analysis of climate change impacts and associated uncertainty on hydropower operation, underlooking the consequences that socio-economic changes, e.g., energy demand and/or price changes, can have on hydropower productivity and profitability. In this work, we analyse how hydropower reservoir operation is affected by changes in both water availability and energy price. We consider stochastically downscaled climate change scenarios of precipitation and temperature to simulate reservoir inflows using a physically explicit hydrological model. We consider different scenarios of energy demand and generation mix to simulate energy prices using an electricity market model, which includes different generation sources, demand sinks, and features of the transmission lines. We then use Multi-Objective optimization techniques to design the operation of hydropower reservoirs for different purposes, e.g. maximization of revenue and/or energy production. The objective of the work is to assess how the tradeoffs between the multiple operating objectives evolve under different co-varying climate change and socio-economic scenarios and to assess the adaptive capacity of the system. The modeling framework is tested on the real-world case study of the Mattmark reservoir in Switzerland.

Constructing a framework for risk analyses of climate change effects on the water budget of differently sloped vineyards with a numeric simulation using the Monte Carlo method coupled to a water balance model

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Marco; Lux, Robert; Schultz, Hans R.

2014-01-01

Grapes for wine production are a highly climate sensitive crop and vineyard water budget is a decisive factor in quality formation. In order to conduct risk assessments for climate change effects in viticulture models are needed which can be applied to complete growing regions. We first modified an existing simplified geometric vineyard model of radiation interception and resulting water use to incorporate numerical Monte Carlo simulations and the physical aspects of radiation interactions between canopy and vineyard slope and azimuth. We then used four regional climate models to assess for possible effects on the water budget of selected vineyard sites up 2100. The model was developed to describe the partitioning of short-wave radiation between grapevine canopy and soil surface, respectively, green cover, necessary to calculate vineyard evapotranspiration. Soil water storage was allocated to two sub reservoirs. The model was adopted for steep slope vineyards based on coordinate transformation and validated against measurements of grapevine sap flow and soil water content determined down to 1.6 m depth at three different sites over 2 years. The results showed good agreement of modeled and observed soil water dynamics of vineyards with large variations in site specific soil water holding capacity (SWC) and viticultural management. Simulated sap flow was in overall good agreement with measured sap flow but site-specific responses of sap flow to potential evapotranspiration were observed. The analyses of climate change impacts on vineyard water budget demonstrated the importance of site-specific assessment due to natural variations in SWC. The improved model was capable of describing seasonal and site-specific dynamics in soil water content and could be used in an amended version to estimate changes in the water budget of entire grape growing areas due to evolving climatic changes. PMID:25540646

Relating Climate Change Risks to Water Supply Planning Assumptions: Recent Applications by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brekke, L. D.

2009-12-01

Presentation highlights recent methods carried by Reclamation to incorporate climate change and variability information into water supply assumptions for longer-term planning. Presentation also highlights limitations of these methods, and possible method adjustments that might be made to address these limitations. Reclamation was established more than one hundred years ago with a mission centered on the construction of irrigation and hydropower projects in the Western United States. Reclamation’s mission has evolved since its creation to include other activities, including municipal and industrial water supply projects, ecosystem restoration, and the protection and management of water supplies. Reclamation continues to explore ways to better address mission objectives, often considering proposals to develop new infrastructure and/or modify long-term criteria for operations. Such studies typically feature operations analysis to disclose benefits and effects of a given proposal, which are sensitive to assumptions made about future water supplies, water demands, and operating constraints. Development of these assumptions requires consideration to more fundamental future drivers such as land use, demographics, and climate. On the matter of establishing planning assumptions for water supplies under climate change, Reclamation has applied several methods. This presentation highlights two activities where the first focuses on potential changes in hydroclimate frequencies and the second focuses on potential changes in hydroclimate period-statistics. The first activity took place in the Colorado River Basin where there was interest in the interarrival possibilities of drought and surplus events of varying severity relevant to proposals on new criteria for handling lower basin shortages. The second activity occurred in California’s Central Valley where stakeholders were interested in how projected climate change possibilities translated into changes in hydrologic and water supply statistics relevant to a long-term federal Endangered Species Act consultation. Projected climate change possibilities were characterized by surveying a large ensemble of climate projections for change in period climate-statistics and then selecting a small set of projections featuring a bracketing set of period-changes relative to the those from the complete ensemble. Although both methods served the needs of their respective planning activities, each has limited applicability for other planning activities. First, each method addresses only one climate change aspect and not the other. Some planning activities may need to consider potential changes in both period-statistics and frequencies. Second, neither method addresses CMIP3 projected changes in climate variability. The first method bases frequency possibilities on historical information while the second method only surveys CMIP3 projections for change in period-mean and then superimposes those changes on historical variability. Third, artifacts of CMIP3 design lead to interpretation challenges when implementing the second method (e.g., inconsistent projection initialization, model-dependent expressions of multi-decadal variability). Presentation summarizes these issues and also potential method adjustments to address them when defining planning assumptions for water supplies.

Impact of climate change in the epidemiology of vector-borne diseases in domestic carnivores.

PubMed

Beugnet, F; Chalvet-Monfray, K

2013-12-01

Vector-borne diseases are medically important in humans and animals but were long considered tropical and known to first affect production animals. This is no longer true and we can see today that they are common in domestic animals and that they are also present in temperate countries, especially in Europe. In recent years, an increase in the diagnosis of vector borne diseases among humans and animals has been observed, which may partly due to the development of diagnostic tools. Their study requires exchanges and collaborations between the many actors involved, especially since the epidemiology seems to be constantly evolving. The veterinary practitioner is the first one to notice the emergence of cases and to implement prevention measures. He also acts as a sentinel to alert epidemiologists. Many factors can explain the epidemiological changes, i.e. all human factors, such as the increase in commercial transportation, but also owners traveling with their pet during the holidays, the development of "outdoor" activities, the increase of individual housings with gardens; to these human factors must be added the ignorance of the risks, linked to animals in general and to wildlife in particular; then the environmental changes: forest fragmentation, establishment of parks; the increase of wild mammal populations (deer, carnivores, rodents, etc.); finally, climate changes. Climate change is a reality which may explain the increase of density of arthropod vectors, but also of their hosts, changes in periods of activity and variations in geographical distribution. The authors show the proof of the climate modifications and then explain how it has an impact in Europe on ticks, mosquitoes, sandflies and even fleas. They conclude on the practical consequences for veterinary practitioners, especially with the diagnosis of parasitic diseases or diseases in areas where they usually do not occur. However, not any epidemiological modification should be linked to climate change, since many other factors are involved and often even overriding. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Betting and Belief: Modeling the Impact of Prediction Markets on Public Attribution of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, J. M.; Nay, J. J.; van der Linden, M.

2016-12-01

Despite overwhelming scientific evidence and an almost complete consensus among scientists, a large fraction of the American public is not convinced that global warming is anthropogenic. This doubt correlates strongly with political, ideological, and cultural orientation. [1] It has been proposed that people who do not trust climate scientists tend to trust markets, so prediction markets might be able to influence their beliefs about the causes of climate change. [2] We present results from an agent-based simulation of a prediction market in which traders invest based on their beliefs about what drives global temperature change (here, either CO2 concentration or total solar irradiance (TSI), which is a popular hypothesis among many who doubt the dominant role of CO2). At each time step, traders use historical and observed temperatures and projected future forcings (CO2 or TSI) to update Bayesian posterior probability distributions for future temperatures, conditional on their belief about what drives climate change. Traders then bet on future temperatures by trading in climate futures. Trading proceeds by a continuous double auction. Traders are randomly assigned initial beliefs about climate change, and they have some probability of changing their beliefs to match those of the most successful traders in their social network. We simulate two alternate realities in which the global temperature is controlled either by CO2 or by TSI, with stochastic noise. In both cases traders' beliefs converge, with a large majority reaching agreement on the actual cause of climate change. This convergence is robust, but the speed with which consensus emerges depends on characteristics of the traders' psychology and the structure of the market. Our model can serve as a test-bed for studying how beliefs might evolve under different market structures and different modes of decision-making and belief-change. We will report progress on studying alternate models of belief-change. This work was partially supported by National Science Foundation grants EAR-1416964, EAR-1204685, and IIS-1526860. The model code is available at https://github.com/JohnNay/predMarket [1] A Leiserowitz, E Maibach, & C Roser-Renouf, Global Warming's Six Americas (Yale U., 2009). [2] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

2012-12-01

As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems. While these initial experiments have relied on offline coupling methodologies, current and future experiments are utilizing a single model code developed to integrate GCAM into CESM as a component of the land model. This unique capability facilitates many new applications to scientific questions arising from human and biogeophysical systems interaction. Future developments will further integrate the energy system decisions and greenhouse gas emissions as simulated in GCAM with the appropriate climate and land system components of CESM.

Tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in Primates.

PubMed

Duran, Andressa; Pie, Marcio R

2015-09-01

Climatic niches have increasingly become a nexus in our understanding of a variety of ecological and evolutionary phenomena, from species distributions to latitudinal diversity gradients. Despite the increasing availability of comprehensive datasets on species ranges, phylogenetic histories, and georeferenced environmental conditions, studies on the evolution of climate niches have only begun to understand how niches evolve over evolutionary timescales. Here, using primates as a model system, we integrate recently developed phylogenetic comparative methods, species distribution patterns, and climatic data to explore primate climatic niche evolution, both among clades and over time. In general, we found that simple, constant-rate models provide a poor representation of how climatic niches evolve. For instance, there have been shifts in the rate of climatic niche evolution in several independent clades, particularly in response to the increasingly cooler climates of the past 10 My. Interestingly, rate accelerations greatly outnumbered rate decelerations. These results highlight the importance of considering more realistic evolutionary models that allow for the detection of heterogeneity in the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution, as well as to infer possible constraining factors for species distributions in geographical space. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

The AmeriFlux data activity and data system: an evolving collection of data management techniques, tools, products and services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boden, T. A.; Krassovski, M.; Yang, B.

2013-06-01

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), USA has provided scientific data management support for the US Department of Energy and international climate change science since 1982. Among the many data archived and available from CDIAC are collections from long-term measurement projects. One current example is the AmeriFlux measurement network. AmeriFlux provides continuous measurements from forests, grasslands, wetlands, and croplands in North, Central, and South America and offers important insight about carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. To successfully manage AmeriFlux data and support climate change research, CDIAC has designed flexible data systems using proven technologies and standards blended with new, evolving technologies and standards. The AmeriFlux data system, comprised primarily of a relational database, a PHP-based data interface and a FTP server, offers a broad suite of AmeriFlux data. The data interface allows users to query the AmeriFlux collection in a variety of ways and then subset, visualize and download the data. From the perspective of data stewardship, on the other hand, this system is designed for CDIAC to easily control database content, automate data movement, track data provenance, manage metadata content, and handle frequent additions and corrections. CDIAC and researchers in the flux community developed data submission guidelines to enhance the AmeriFlux data collection, enable automated data processing, and promote standardization across regional networks. Both continuous flux and meteorological data and irregular biological data collected at AmeriFlux sites are carefully scrutinized by CDIAC using established quality-control algorithms before the data are ingested into the AmeriFlux data system. Other tasks at CDIAC include reformatting and standardizing the diverse and heterogeneous datasets received from individual sites into a uniform and consistent network database, generating high-level derived products to meet the current demands from a broad user group, and developing new products in anticipation of future needs. In this paper, we share our approaches to meet the challenges of standardizing, archiving and delivering quality, well-documented AmeriFlux data worldwide to benefit others with similar challenges of handling diverse climate change data, to further heighten awareness and use of an outstanding ecological data resource, and to highlight expanded software engineering applications being used for climate change measurement data.

The AmeriFlux data activity and data system: an evolving collection of data management techniques, tools, products and services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boden, T. A.; Krassovski, M.; Yang, B.

2013-02-01

The Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), USA has provided scientific data management support for the US Department of Energy and international climate change science since 1982. Among the many data archived and available from CDIAC are collections from long-term measurement projects. One current example is the AmeriFlux measurement network. AmeriFlux provides continuous measurements from forests, grasslands, wetlands, and croplands in North, Central, and South America and offers important insight about carbon cycling in terrestrial ecosystems. To successfully manage AmeriFlux data and support climate change research, CDIAC has designed flexible data systems using proven technologies and standards blended with new, evolving technologies and standards. The AmeriFlux data system, comprised primarily of a relational database, a PHP based data-interface and a FTP server, offers a broad suite of AmeriFlux data. The data interface allows users to query the AmeriFlux collection in a variety of ways and then subset, visualize and download the data. From the perspective of data stewardship, on the other hand, this system is designed for CDIAC to easily control database content, automate data movement, track data provenance, manage metadata content, and handle frequent additions and corrections. CDIAC and researchers in the flux community developed data submission guidelines to enhance the AmeriFlux data collection, enable automated data processing, and promote standardization across regional networks. Both continuous flux and meteorological data and irregular biological data collected at AmeriFlux sites are carefully scrutinized by CDIAC using established quality-control algorithms before the data are ingested into the AmeriFlux data system. Other tasks at CDIAC include reformatting and standardizing the diverse and heterogeneous datasets received from individual sites into a uniform and consistent network database, generating high-level derived products to meet the current demands from a broad user group, and developing new products in anticipation of future needs. In this paper, we share our approaches to meet the challenges of standardizing, archiving and delivering quality, well-documented AmeriFlux data worldwide to benefit others with similar challenges of handling diverse climate change data, to further heighten awareness and use of an outstanding ecological data resource, and to highlight expanded software engineering applications being used for climate change measurement data.

Changing Groundwater and Lake Storage in the Americas from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Present Day

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Callaghan, K. L.; Wickert, A. D.; Michael, L.; Fan, Y.; Miguez-Macho, G.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Austermann, J.; Ng, G. H. C.

2017-12-01

Groundwater accounts for 1.69% of the globe's water storage - nearly the same amount (1.74%) that is stored in ice caps and glaciers. The volume of water stored in this reservoir has changed over glacial-interglacial cycles as climate warms and cools, sea level rises and falls, ice sheets advance and retreat, surface topography isostatically adjusts, and patterns of moisture transport reorganize. During the last deglaciation, over the past 21000 years, all of these factors contributed to profound hydrologic change in the Americas. In North America, deglaciation generated proglacial lakes and wetlands along the isostatically-depressed margin of the retreating Laurentide Ice Sheet, along with extensive pluvial lakes in the desert southwest. In South America, changing patterns of atmospheric circulation caused regional and time-varying wetting and drying that led to fluctuations in water table levels. Understanding how groundwater levels change in response to these factors can aid our understanding of the effects of modern climate change on groundwater resources. Using a model that incorporates temporally evolving climate, topography (driven by glacial isostatic adjustment), ice extent, sea level, and spatially varying soil properties, we present our estimates of changes in total groundwater storage in the Americas over the past 21000 years. We estimate depth to water table at 500-year intervals and at a 30-arcsecond resolution. This allows a comparative assessment of changing groundwater storage volumes through time. The model has already been applied to the present day and has proven successful in estimating modern groundwater depths at a broad scale (Fan et al., 2013). We also assess changing groundwater-fed lakes, and compare model-estimated lake sizes and locations to paleorecords of these lakes. Our data- and model-integrated look back at the terminal Pleistocene provides an estimate of groundwater variability under extreme climate change. Preliminary results show changes in groundwater storage within the Americas on the order of tens of centimetres in units of equivalent global sea-level change.

Fire responses to postglacial climate change and human impact in northern Patagonia (41-43°S).

PubMed

Iglesias, Virginia; Whitlock, Cathy

2014-12-23

Forest/steppe boundaries are among the most dynamic ecosystems on Earth and are highly vulnerable to changes in climate and land use. In this study we examine the postglacial history of the Patagonian forest/steppe ecotone (41-43°S) to better understand its sensitivity to past variations in climate, disturbance, and human activity before European colonization. We present regional trends in vegetation and biomass burning, as detected by generalized additive models fitted to seven pollen and charcoal records, and compare the results with other paleoenvironmental data, as well as archeological and ecological information to (i) estimate postglacial fire trends at regional scales, (ii) assess the evolution of climate-vegetation-fire linkages over the last 18,000 calibrated (cal) years B.P., and (iii) evaluate the role of humans in altering pre-European landscapes and fire regimes. Pollen and charcoal data indicate that biomass burning was relatively low during warm/dry steppe-dominated landscapes in the late glacial/Early Holocene transition and increased as more humid conditions favored forest development after ca. 10,000 cal years B.P. Postglacial fire activity was thus limited by fuel availability associated with sparse vegetation cover rather than by suitable climate conditions. In contrast to extensive burning by European settlers, variations in indigenous population densities were not associated with fluctuations in regional or watershed-scale fire occurrence, suggesting that climate-vegetation-fire linkages in northern Patagonia evolved with minimal or very localized human influences before European settlement.

Cenozoic climate changes: A review based on time series analysis of marine benthic δ18O records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mudelsee, Manfred; Bickert, Torsten; Lear, Caroline H.; Lohmann, Gerrit

2014-09-01

The climate during the Cenozoic era changed in several steps from ice-free poles and warm conditions to ice-covered poles and cold conditions. Since the 1950s, a body of information on ice volume and temperature changes has been built up predominantly on the basis of measurements of the oxygen isotopic composition of shells of benthic foraminifera collected from marine sediment cores. The statistical methodology of time series analysis has also evolved, allowing more information to be extracted from these records. Here we provide a comprehensive view of Cenozoic climate evolution by means of a coherent and systematic application of time series analytical tools to each record from a compilation spanning the interval from 4 to 61 Myr ago. We quantitatively describe several prominent features of the oxygen isotope record, taking into account the various sources of uncertainty (including measurement, proxy noise, and dating errors). The estimated transition times and amplitudes allow us to assess causal climatological-tectonic influences on the following known features of the Cenozoic oxygen isotopic record: Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Eocene-Oligocene Transition, Oligocene-Miocene Boundary, and the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. We further describe and causally interpret the following features: Paleocene-Eocene warming trend, the two-step, long-term Eocene cooling, and the changes within the most recent interval (Miocene-Pliocene). We review the scope and methods of constructing Cenozoic stacks of benthic oxygen isotope records and present two new latitudinal stacks, which capture besides global ice volume also bottom water temperatures at low (less than 30°) and high latitudes. This review concludes with an identification of future directions for data collection, statistical method development, and climate modeling.

Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems: Review and Observing Needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavez, F.; Garçon, V. C.; Dewitte, B.; Montes, I.

2015-12-01

Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) cover less than 3% of the world ocean surface but play a significant role in the climate system, and contribute disproportionately to ocean biological productivity with up to 40% of the reported global fish catch. Coupled with the vast coastal human populations, these regions play key socio-economic roles. Human pressure on these productive ecosystems and their services is increasing, requiring new and evolving scientific approaches to collect information and use it in management. Here we review and compare the physical, chemical and biological characteristics of the four major EBUS: Benguela, California, Northwest Africa and Peru/Chile. Long-term trends and climate variability are emphasized. Technologies and systems for observing and understanding the changing marine ecosystems of EBUS are discussed.

Assessing the Dynamic Effects of Climate on Individual Tree Growth Across Time and Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Itter, M.; Finley, A. O.; D'Amato, A. W.; Foster, J. R.; Bradford, J. B.

2015-12-01

The relationship between climate variability and an ecosystem process, such as forest growth, is frequently not fixed over time, but changes due to complex interactions between unobserved ecological factors and the process of interest. Climate data and forecasts are frequently spatially and temporally misaligned with ecological observations making inference regarding the effects of climate on ecosystem processes particularly challenging. Here we develop a Bayesian dynamic hierarchical model for annual tree growth increment that allows the effects of climate to evolve over time, applies climate data at a spatial-temporal scale consistent with observations, and controls for individual-level variability commonly encountered in ecological datasets. The model is applied to individual tree data from northern Minnesota using a modified Thornthwaite-type water balance model to transform PRISM temperature and precipitation estimates to physiologically relevant values of actual and potential evapotranspiration (AET, PET), and climatic water deficit. Model results indicate that mean tree growth is most sensitive to AET during the growing season and PET and minimum temperature in the spring prior to growth. The effects of these variables on tree growth, however, are not stationary with significant effects observed in only a subset of years during the 111-year study period. Importantly, significant effects of climate do not result from anomalous climate observations, but follow from large growth deviations unexplained by tree age and size, and time since forest disturbance. Results differ markedly from alternative models that assume the effects of climate are stationary over time or apply climate estimates at the individual scale. Forecasts of future tree growth as a function of climate follow directly from the dynamic hierarchical model allowing for assessment of forest change. Current work is focused on extending the model framework to include regional climate and ecosystem effects for application to a larger tree growth dataset spanning a latitudinal gradient within the US from Maine to Florida.

Rapid adaptation to climate facilitates range expansion of an invasive plant.

PubMed

Colautti, Robert I; Barrett, Spencer C H

2013-10-18

Adaptation to climate, evolving over contemporary time scales, could facilitate rapid range expansion across environmental gradients. Here, we examine local adaptation along a climatic gradient in the North American invasive plant Lythrum salicaria. We show that the evolution of earlier flowering is adaptive at the northern invasion front where it increases fitness as much as, or more than, the effects of enemy release and the evolution of increased competitive ability. However, early flowering decreases investment in vegetative growth, which reduces fitness by a factor of 3 in southern environments where the North American invasion commenced. Our results demonstrate that local adaptation can evolve quickly during range expansion, overcoming environmental constraints on propagule production.

Climate change, thermal niches, extinction risk and maternal-effect rescue of Toad-headed lizards, Phrynocephalus, in thermal extremes of the Arabian Peninsula to the Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Sinervo, Barry; Miles, Donald B; Wu, Yayong; Méndez de la Cruz, Fausto R; Kirchoff, Sebastian; Qi, Yin

2018-02-13

Determining the susceptibility of species to changing thermal niches is a major goal for biologists. In this paper we develop an eco-physiological model of extinction risk under climate change premised on behavioral thermoregulation. Our method downscales operative environmental temperatures, which restrict hours of activity of lizards, h r , for present-day climate (1975) and future climate scenarios (2070). We apply our model using occurrence records of 20 Phrynocephalus lizards (or taxa in species complexes) drawn from literature and museum records. Our analysis is phylogenetically informed, because some clades may be more sensitive to rising temperatures. Computed h r limits predict local extirpations among Phrynocephalus lizards at continental scales and delineate upper boundaries of thermal niches as defined by Extreme Value Distributions. Under the 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathway scenario, we predict extirpation of 64% of local populations by 2070 across 20 Phrynocephalus species, and 12 are at high risk of total extinction due to thermal limits being exceeded. In tandem with global strategies of lower CO 2 emissions, we propose regional strategies for establishing new National Parks to protect extinction-prone taxa by preserving high-elevation climate refugia within existing sites of species occurrence. We propose that evolved acclimatization - maternal plasticity - may ameliorate risk, but is poorly studied. Previous studies revealed that adaptive maternal plasticity by thermoregulating gravid females alter progeny thermal preferences by ±1°C. We describe plasticity studies for extinction-prone species that could assess whether they might be buffered from climate warming - a self-rescue. We discuss an epigenetic framework for studying such maternal-effect evolution. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf

2013-04-01

There is substantial evidence in historical and recent observations that the Mediterranean and neighboring regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Numerous climate projections, stemming from ensembles of global and regional climate models, agree on severe changes in the climate forcing which are likely to exacerbate subsequent ecological, economic and social impacts. Many of these causal connections are closely linked to the general expectation that water availability will decline in the already water-stressed basins of Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Near East, even though considerable regional variances must be expected. Consequently, climate change impacts on water resources are raising concerns regarding their possible management and security implications. Decreasing access to water resources and other related factors could be a cause or a 'multiplier' of tensions within and between countries. Whether security threats arise from climate impacts or options for cooperation evolve does not depend only on the severity of the impacts themselves, but on social, economic, and institutional vulnerabilities or resilience as well as factors that influence local, national and international relations. However, an assessment of vulnerability and risks hinges on natural, socio-economic, and political conditions and responses, all of which are uncertain. Multidisciplinary research is needed to tackle the multi-facet complexity of climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This is particularly true in a region of overall data scarcity and poor data management and exchange structures. The current potential to develop appropriate regional adaptation measures towards climate change impacts suffers heavily from large uncertainties. These spread along a long chain of components, starting from the definition of emission scenarios to global and regional climate modeling to impact models and a subsequent variety of management options and adaptation strategies. Therefore, the 4-year FP7-project CLIMB (Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins, GA: 244151) includes a major focus on the assessment and quantification of uncertainties. First, CLIMB employs a rigorous climate change model analysis, auditing the Global and Regional Climate Model data available through the ENSEMBLES and PRUDENCE initiatives. The audits lead to select the best regional performers as compared to observed values during the climatic reference period (1971- 2000). Specific bias correction and downscaling procedures are applied to provide the driving inputs and meet the demands of the subsequent impact models, transferring a future climate signal (2041-2070) into hydrological quantities at the catchment or landscape scale. However, very limited quantitative knowledge is as yet available about the role of hydrological model complexity for climate change impact assessment, where predictive power becomes more and more important and raises the demand for process-based and spatially explicit model types. Thus, CLIMB uses hydrological model ensembles to analyze the performance of existing models and works to identify the appropriate level of model complexity, and thus to determine the data specifications required to provide robust results in a climate change context. The presentation focuses on the CLIMB multi-level strategy to uncertainty assessment and highlights latest findings in some of the seven CLIMB case studies. In particular, the presentation will demonstrate the current constraints of hydro-meteorological data availability and processing and searches for solutions that can eventually be provided by integrating hydro-meteorology and ICT research communities.

Rapid and fundamental paleolimnological changes in Lake Iznik (NW Turkey) during the Holocene/Pleistocene transition: a multiproxy - multisite approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gromig, R.; Viehberg, F. A.; Damcı, E.; Ülgen, U. B.; Assonov, S.; Franz, S. O.; Cagatay, M. N.; Litt, T.; Melles, M.; Wagner, B.; Staubwasser, M.

2016-12-01

The Marmara region is a key area to investigate the teleconnection and environmental changes of the Black Sea/Eastern Mediterranean Sea and northern hemisphere climate patterns. Lake Iznik, an oligohaline lake, is the largest lake in the Bosphorous region, which holds a continuous sediment archive. A hydro-acoustic survey screened the locations of three sediment cores (5 to 17 m) from previous field campaigns. The longest record reaches back almost to the Campanian Ignimbrite (39.3 cal kyr BP), which represents most likely the lowermost high amplitude reflector in hydro-acoustic profiles. The late Pleistocene ostracode fauna appears low in diversity and evolves abruptly to an abundant monospecific species assemblage of Limnocythere inopinata during the Younger Dryas after substantial alteration in the hydrocarbonate and alkalinity system of Lake Iznik. This distinct change in hydrochemistry is reflected in the appearence of different shell phenotypes and the occurence of a population with sexual reproduction (males/females). Independently, results from stable isotope analyses (δ18O and δ13C) on ostracode shells also suggest that Lake Iznik evolves from a freshwater system to a closed basin sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes.

A paradigm shift toward a consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Monier, E.; Paltsev, S.; Sokolov, A. P.; Fant, C.; Chen, H.; Gao, X.; Schlosser, C. A.; Scott, J. R.; Dutkiewicz, S.; Ejaz, Q.; Couzo, E. A.; Prinn, R. G.; Haigh, M.

2017-12-01

Estimates of physical and economic impacts of future climate change are subject to substantial challenges. To enrich the currently popular approaches of assessing climate impacts by evaluating a damage function or by multi-model comparisons based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), we focus here on integrating impacts into a self-consistent coupled human and Earth system modeling framework that includes modules that represent multiple physical impacts. In a sample application we show that this framework is capable of investigating the physical impacts of climate change and socio-economic stressors. The projected climate impacts vary dramatically across the globe in a set of scenarios with global mean warming ranging between 2.4°C and 3.6°C above pre-industrial by 2100. Unabated emissions lead to substantial sea level rise, acidification that impacts the base of the oceanic food chain, air pollution that exceeds health standards by tenfold, water stress that impacts an additional 1 to 2 billion people globally and agricultural productivity that decreases substantially in many parts of the world. We compare the outcomes from these forward-looking scenarios against the common goal described by the target-driven scenario of 2°C, which results in much smaller impacts. It is challenging for large internationally coordinated exercises to respond quickly to new policy targets. We propose that a paradigm shift toward a self-consistent modeling framework to assess climate impacts is needed to produce information relevant to evolving global climate policy and mitigation strategies in a timely way.

Water and carbon fluxes in rain fed agricultural sites under a changing climate: The role of stomata

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseini, A.; Gayler, S.; Streck, T.; Katul, G. G.

2014-12-01

Vegetation models are needed to assess how crop productivity may be altered due to variations in climatic conditions. Stomatal conductance controls both diffusion of CO2 from the atmosphere into the leaf and water losses from the soil-plant system to the atmosphere through transpiration (E). Despite its significance, stomatal conductance and its links to climatic variables remains empirically specified in current crop models thereby challenging their application to future climatic conditions. It has long been conjectured that stomata has evolved so as to allow terrestrial plants to assimilate CO2 in a desiccating atmosphere while minimizing water losses. Hence, the hypothesis that stomata adapt optimally to their environment so as to maximize assimilation (A) for a given amount of water loss has received significant attention over the past 4 decades. Here, a new approach to implement optimization theory of stomatal conductance into a dynamic canopy gas exchange model is introduced. A key variable in this theory is the so-called marginal water use efficiency (MWUE), which is assumed to be constant on time scales commensurate with fluctuations in stomatal aperture. However, on time scales relevant to crop productivity (daily to seasonal), the boundary conditions on the optimization problem evolve in time prompting the question of how to assign MWUE on such time scales. To address this question, MWUE was formulated as a function of time-integrated leaf-water potential and atmospheric CO2. Next, leaf water potential was linked to root and soil pressure using a soil water balance model based on a modified Richards' equation that considers vertical distribution of root water uptake. The adequacy of the new approach was tested by comparing predicted diurnal cycles of A and E as well as variability of soil moisture with long-term observations at a winter wheat (Triticum aestivum cv.Cubus) field in southwest Germany (see Figure), where transpiration and assimilation rates were derived from eddy-covariance measurements of latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange. To place those results in the broader context of climate change and food security issues, a sensitivity analyses on water and carbon fluxes with respect to climatic variables, soil texture, and root-density distribution is also presented.

Effects of climate change adaptation scenarios on perceived spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vidal, J.-P.; Martin, E.; Kitova, N.; Najac, J.; Soubeyroux, J.-M.

2012-04-01

Drought events develop in both space and time and they are therefore best described through summary joint spatio-temporal characteristics, like mean duration, mean affected area and total magnitude. This study addresses the issue of future projections of such characteristics of drought events over France through three main research questions: (1) Are downscaled climate projections able to reproduce spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural droughts in France over a present-day period? (2) How such characteristics will evolve over the 21st century under different emissions scenarios? (3) How would perceived drought characteristics evolve under theoretical adaptation scenarios? These questions are addressed using the Isba land surface model, downscaled climate projections from the ARPEGE General Circulation Model under three emissions scenarios, as well as results from a previously performed 50-year multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France (Vidal et al., 2010). Spatio-temporal characteristics of meteorological and agricultural drought events are computed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Soil Wetness Index (SSWI), respectively, and for time scales of 3 and 12 months. Results first show that the distributions of joint spatio-temporal characteristics of observed events are well reproduced by the downscaled hydroclimate projections over a present-day period. All spatio-temporal characteristics of drought events are then found to dramatically increase over the 21st century under all considered emissions scenarios, with stronger changes for agricultural droughts. Two theoretical adaptation scenarios are eventually built based on hypotheses of adaptation to evolving climate and hydrological normals. The two scenarios differ by the way the transient adaptation is performed for a given date in the future, with reference to the normals over either the previous 30-year window ("retrospective" adaptation) or over a 30-year period centred around the date considered ("prospective" adaptation). These adaptation scenarios are translated into local-scale transient drought thresholds, as opposed to a non-adaptation scenario where the drought threshold remains constant. The perceived spatio-temporal characteristics derived from the theoretical adaptation scenarios show much reduced changes, but they call for more realistic scenarios at both the catchment and national scale in order to accurately assess the combined effect of local-scale adaptation and global-scale mitigation. This study thus proposes a proof of concept for using standardized drought indices for (1) assessing projections of spatio-temporal drought characteristics and (2) building theoretical adaptation scenarios and associated perceived changes in hydrological impact studies (Vidal et al., submitted). Vidal J.-P., Martin E., Franchistéguy L., Habets F., Soubeyroux J.-M., Blanchard M. & Baillon M. (2010) Multilevel and multiscale drought reanalysis over France with the Safran-Isba-Modcou hydrometeorological suite. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 14, 459-478.doi: 10.5194/hess-14-459-2010 Vidal J.-P., Martin E., Kitova N., Najac J. & Soubeyroux, J. M. (submitted) Evolution of spatio-temporal drought characteristics: validation, projections and effect of adaptation scenarios. Submitted to Hydrology and earth System Sciences

Geographic variation in climate as a proxy for climate change: Forecasting evolutionary trajectories from species differentiation and genetic correlations.

PubMed

Schneider, Heather E; Mazer, Susan J

2016-01-01

Climate change models for California predict a warmer, drier future, potentially resulting in shorter growing seasons. If phenotypic differences between closely related species currently distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient represent adaptations to their abiotic environment, then as conditions become warmer and drier, populations presently adapted to cooler and wetter conditions may evolve to become more similar to those adapted to warmer and drier conditions. Two sister species, Clarkia unguiculata and C. exilis, are distributed across a moisture and temperature gradient in the southern Sierra Nevada, providing an opportunity to predict how this process may occur. In a greenhouse experiment using wild-collected seeds from 11 populations in the southern Sierra Nevada, we examined relationships among elevation, climatic conditions, and population means for each trait, then evaluated bivariate relationships among maternal family means, using raw values and controlling for population and seed mass effects on phenotype. Clarkia exilis occupied warmer, drier conditions, typically at lower elevations, than C. unguiculata did and flowered earlier and faster, producing smaller flowers with lower herkogamy. In C. unguiculata, petal area, herkogamy, and the rate of flower production were positively correlated with days to first flower. If selection favors earlier flowering, smaller petals, or faster flower production in C. unguiculata, then the genetic correlations among these traits should reinforce their joint evolution. Moreover, the correlations between these traits and herkogamy may promote the evolution of self-fertilization as an indirect response to selection, a previously unrecognized potential outcome of climate change. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

REGIONAL COORDINATION OF NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLIMATE SERVICES IN THE WEST (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bair, A.

2009-12-01

The climate services program is an important component in the National Weather Service’s (NWS) mission, and is one of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) top five priorities. The Western Region NWS started building a regional and local climate services program in late 2001, with input from local NWS offices and key partners. The original goals of the Western Region climate services program were to strive to provide climate services that were useful, easily accessible, well understood, coordinated and supported by partners, and reflect customer needs. While the program has evolved, and lessons have been learned, these goals are still guiding the program. Regional and local level Climate Services are a fundamental part of NOAA/NWS’s current and future role in providing climate services. There is an ever growing demand for climate information and services to aid the public in decision-making and no single entity alone can provide the range of information and services needed. Coordination and building strong partnerships at the local and regional levels is the key to providing optimal climate services. Over the past 8 years, Western Region NWS has embarked on numerous coordination efforts to build the regional and local climate services programs, such as: collaboration (both internally and externally to NOAA) meetings and projects, internal staff training, surveys, and outreach efforts. In order to gain regional and local buy-in from the NWS staff, multiple committees were utilized to plan and develop goals and structure for the program. While the regional and local climate services program in the NWS Western Region has had many successes, there have been several important lessons learned from efforts that have not been as successful. These lessons, along with past experience, close coordination with partners, and the need to constantly improve/change the program as the climate changes, form the basis for future program development and goals.

Conceptualizing Holistic Community Resilience to Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The concept of resilience has been evolving over the past decade as a way to address the current and future challenges nations, states, and cities face from a changing climate. Understanding how the environment (natural and built), climate event risk, societal interactions, and governance reflect community resilience for adaptive management is critical for envisioning urban and natural environments that can persist through extreme weather events and longer-term shifts in climate. To be successful, this interaction of these five domains must result in maintaining quality of life and ensuring equal access to the benefits or the protection from harm for all segments of the population. An exhaustive literature review of climate resilience approaches was conducted examining the two primary elements of resilience—vulnerability and recoverability. The results of this review were examined to determine if any existing frameworks addressed the above five major areas in an integrated manner. While some aspects of a resilience model were available for existing sources, no comprehensive approach was available. A new conceptual model for resilience to climate events is proposed that incorporates some available structures and addresses these five domains at a national, regional, state, and county spatial scale for a variety of climate-induced events ranging from superstorms to droughts and their concomitant events such as wildfires, floods, and pest invasions. This conceptua

Slow science: the value of long ocean biogeochemistry records

PubMed Central

Henson, Stephanie A.

2014-01-01

Sustained observations (SOs) have provided invaluable information on the ocean's biology and biogeochemistry for over 50 years. They continue to play a vital role in elucidating the functioning of the marine ecosystem, particularly in the light of ongoing climate change. Repeated, consistent observations have provided the opportunity to resolve temporal and/or spatial variability in ocean biogeochemistry, which has driven exploration of the factors controlling biological parameters and processes. Here, I highlight some of the key breakthroughs in biological oceanography that have been enabled by SOs, which include areas such as trophic dynamics, understanding variability, improved biogeochemical models and the role of ocean biology in the global carbon cycle. In the near future, SOs are poised to make progress on several fronts, including detecting climate change effects on ocean biogeochemistry, high-resolution observations of physical–biological interactions and greater observational capability in both the mesopelagic zone and harsh environments, such as the Arctic. We are now entering a new era for biological SOs, one in which our motivations have evolved from the need to acquire basic understanding of the ocean's state and variability, to a need to understand ocean biogeochemistry in the context of increasing pressure in the form of climate change, overfishing and eutrophication. PMID:25157192

Escaping a Rigidity Trap; Governance and Adaptive Capacity ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Everglades is perhaps one of the most recognized ecosystems on the planet. Its international reputation arose in part because of the writings of Marjory Stoneman Douglas, who wove together a rich, natural, social, and cultural depiction of the area entitled River of Grass. 1 The ecosystem is characterized as a subtropical wetland, rich in biodiversity and other environmental values. 2 Such values are reflected in the portions of the Everglades set aside for conservation and preservation. 3 The areas of the Everglades with the deepest organic soils now support agricultural production of sugar and vegetables that rely on federal economic support. 4 A mild subtropical climate also contributes to a tourist economy, and abundant rainfall provides water resources for millions of inhabitants. 5 Such complexities illustrate a few of the interactions between people and their environment that can be distilled into a conceptual framework of the social-ecological system of the Everglades. Changing climate will pose important questions for those who manage the water infrastructure in southern Florida. One such question is will the climate become wetter, drier, or both? How will changes in tropical cyclones influence the manifestation of those changes is occurring at regional scales? What is the capacity of the social system to adapt, evolve, or devolve?

Response of Urban Systems to Climate Change in Europe: Heat Stress Exposure and the Effect on Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Catherine; Thomas, Bart; Grommen, Mart

2015-04-01

Climate change is driven by global processes such as the global ocean circulation and its variability over time leading to changing weather patterns on regional scales as well as changes in the severity and occurrence of extreme events such as heavy rain- and windstorms, floods, drought, heat waves, etc. The summer 2003 European heat wave was the hottest summer on record in Europe over the past centuries leading to health crises in several countries like France and caused up to 70.000 excess deaths over four months in Central and Western Europe. The main risks induced by global climate change in urbanised areas are considered to be overheating and resulting health effects, increased exposure to flood events, increased damage losses from extreme weather conditions but also shortages in the provision of life-sustaining services. Moreover, the cities themselves create specific or inherent risks and urban adaptation is often very demanding. As most of Europe's inhabitants live in cities, it is of particular relevance to examine the impact of climate variability on urban areas and their populations. The present study focusses on the identification of heat stress variables related to human health and the extraction of this information by processing daily temperature statistics of local urban climate simulations over multiple timeframes of 20 years and three different European cities based on recent, near future and far future global climate predictions. The analyses have been conducted in the framework of the NACLIM FP7 project funded by the European Commission involving local stakeholders such as the cities of Antwerp (Belgium), Berlin (Germany) and Almada (Portugal) represented by different climate and urban characteristics. Apart from the urban-rural temperature increment (urban heat island effect), additional heat stress parameters such as the average number of heat wave days together with their duration and intensities have been covered during this research. In a subsequent step, the heat stress variables are superposed on relevant socio-economic datasets targeting total population and its distribution per age class as well as vulnerable institutions such as hospitals, schools, rest homes and child/day care facilities in order to generate heat stress exposure maps for each use case city and various climate, urban planning and mitigation scenarios. The specifications and requirements for the various scenarios have been consolidated in close collaboration with the local stakeholders during dedicated end-users workshops. The results of this study will allow urban planners and policy makers facing the challenges of climate change and develop sound strategies for evolving towards sustainable and climate resilient cities.

Quantifying PM2.5-Meteorology Sensitivities in a Global Climate Model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Westervelt, D. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Naik, V.; Tai, A. P. K.; Fiore, A. M.; Mauzerall, D. L.

2016-01-01

Climate change can influence fine particulate matter concentrations (PM2.5) through changes in air pollution meteorology. Knowledge of the extent to which climate change can exacerbate or alleviate air pollution in the future is needed for robust climate and air pollution policy decision-making. To examine the influence of climate on PM2.5, we use the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model version 3 (GFDL CM3), a fully-coupled chemistry-climate model, combined with future emissions and concentrations provided by the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). For each of the RCPs, we conduct future simulations in which emissions of aerosols and their precursors are held at 2005 levels while other climate forcing agents evolve in time, such that only climate (and thus meteorology) can influence PM2.5 surface concentrations. We find a small increase in global, annual mean PM2.5 of about 0.21 micro-g/cu m3 (5%) for RCP8.5, a scenario with maximum warming. Changes in global mean PM2.5 are at a maximum in the fall and are mainly controlled by sulfate followed by organic aerosol with minimal influence of black carbon. RCP2.6 is the only scenario that projects a decrease in global PM2.5 with future climate changes, albeit only by -0.06 micro-g/cu m (1.5%) by the end of the 21st century. Regional and local changes in PM2.5 are larger, reaching upwards of 2 micro-g/cu m for polluted (eastern China) and dusty (western Africa) locations on an annually averaged basis in RCP8.5. Using multiple linear regression, we find that future PM2.5 concentrations are most sensitive to local temperature, followed by surface wind and precipitation. PM2.5 concentrations are robustly positively associated with temperature, while negatively related with precipitation and wind speed. Present-day (2006-2015) modeled sensitivities of PM2.5 to meteorological variables are evaluated against observations and found to agree reasonably well with observed sensitivities (within 10e50% over the eastern United States for several variables), although the modeled PM2.5 is less sensitive to precipitation than in the observations due to weaker convective scavenging. We conclude that the hypothesized "climate penalty" of future increases in PM2.5 is relatively minor on a global scale compared to the influence of emissions on PM2.5 concentrations.

Matching Social and Biophysical Scales in Extensive Livestock Production as a Basis for Adaptation to Global Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayre, N. F.; Bestelmeyer, B.

2015-12-01

Global livestock production is heterogeneous, and its benefits and costs vary widely across global contexts. Extensive grazing lands (or rangelands) constitute the vast majority of the land dedicated to livestock production globally, but they are relatively minor contributors to livestock-related environmental impacts. Indeed, the greatest potential for environmental damage in these lands lies in their potential for conversion to other uses, including agriculture, mining, energy production and urban development. Managing such conversion requires improving the sustainability of livestock production in the face of fragmentation, ecological and economic marginality and climate change. We present research from Mongolia and the United States demonstrating methods of improving outcomes on rangelands by improving the fit between the scales of social and biophysical processes. Especially in arid and semi-arid settings, rangelands exhibit highly variable productivity over space and time and non-linear or threshold dynamics in vegetation; climate change is projected to exacerbate these challenges and, in some cases, diminish overall productivity. Policy and governance frameworks that enable landscape-scale management and administration enable range livestock producers to adapt to these conditions. Similarly, livestock breeds that have evolved to withstand climate and vegetation change improve producers' prospects in the face of increasing variability and declining productivity. A focus on the relationships among primary production, animal production, spatial connectivity, and scale must underpin adaptation strategies in rangelands.

Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination under Rapid Anthropogenic Environmental Change: Evolution at a Turtle's Pace?

PubMed

Refsnider, Jeanine M; Janzen, Fredric J

2016-01-01

Organisms become adapted to their environment by evolving through natural selection, a process that generally transpires over many generations. Currently, anthropogenically driven environmental changes are occurring orders of magnitude faster than they did prior to human influence, which could potentially outpace the ability of some organisms to adapt. Here, we focus on traits associated with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), a classic polyphenism, in a model turtle species to address the evolutionary potential of species with TSD to respond to rapid climate change. We show, first, that sex-ratio outcomes in species with TSD are sensitive to climatic variation. We then identify the evolutionary potential, in terms of heritability, of TSD and quantify the evolutionary potential of 3 key traits involved in TSD: pivotal temperature, maternal nest-site choice, and nesting phenology. We find that these traits display different patterns of adaptive potential: pivotal temperature exhibits moderate heritable variation, whereas nest-site choice and nesting phenology, with considerable phenotypic plasticity, have only modest evolutionary potential to alter sex ratios. Therefore, the most likely response of species with TSD to anthropogenically induced climate change may be a combination of microevolution in thermal sensitivity of the sex-determining pathway and of plasticity in maternal nesting behavior. © The American Genetic Association. 2015. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Gender, Age, Social differences and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrucci, Alessandra; Salvini, Silvana

2017-04-01

Climate and society evolve together in a manner that could place already vulnerable areas and their population at a greater risk to extreme weather events. While efforts have been devoted to better planning preparedness and responses to weather extremes, the interactions among various stakeholders who deal with hazard mitigation and response, and the community members, also related with gender and age differences, are not completely understood. In contrast to physical vulnerability, which arises from the potential for environmental extremes to create adverse physiological changes, social vulnerability arises from the potential for these extreme events to cause changes in people's behavior. People can vary in their potential for injury to themselves and their families. They also vary in the potential for destruction of their homes and workplaces, as well as the destruction of the transportation systems and locations for shopping and recreation they use in their daily activities. It is important to recognize that social vulnerability is not randomly distributed either demographically or geographically. In particular, the social vulnerability arising from a lack of psychological resilience, social network integration, economic assets, and political power vary across demographic groups. Some of these components of social vulnerability can be predicted by demographic characteristics such as gender, age, education, income, and ethnicity. This review explores the gender and social difference dimensions of vulnerability and adaptive capacity in relation to climate change.

Six thousand years of coastline evolution in the Guadalfeo deltaic system (southern Iberian Peninsula)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jabaloy-Sánchez, Antonio; Lobo, Francisco José; Azor, Antonio; Martín-Rosales, Wenceslao; Pérez-Peña, José Vicente; Bárcenas, Patricia; Macías, Jorge; Fernández-Salas, Luis Miguel; Vázquez-Vílchez, Mercedes

2014-02-01

The 4000 BC to present-day coastal and shallow-marine changes of the Guadalfeo River deltaic system (southeast Spain) are studied using historic maps, aerial photographs, diverse submarine data, and hydrodynamic models. The deltaic system evolved with little anthropic influence until the 1940s, when the river mouth was diverted to the west. During the pre-diversion stage, the system evolved from an estuary to a delta due to the enormous sediment yield in the catchment, induced both by anomalously wet climate conditions and by deforestation practices. Accordingly, the coastline advanced significantly (up to 3.3 m year- 1) during this period, particularly during the 1500 to 1873 interval. The estimate for volumetric changes in the deltaic system shows very high specific sediment yield values (around 60-65 t ha- 1 year- 1) in the catchment. The deltaic system mainly evolved by cannibalization of the older, lobate outlet depocentre after the river diversion and the generation of a more elongated depocentre coincident with the current outlet due to enhanced lateral redistribution of sediments (from east to west). The construction of two major dams in the trunk river in the last 30 years has severely blocked sediment supply to the system, although expected coastline erosion has been partially mitigated by longshore sediment redistribution.

Ancient climate change, antifreeze, and the evolutionary diversification of Antarctic fishes

PubMed Central

Near, Thomas J.; Dornburg, Alex; Kuhn, Kristen L.; Eastman, Joseph T.; Pennington, Jillian N.; Patarnello, Tomaso; Zane, Lorenzo; Fernández, Daniel A.; Jones, Christopher D.

2012-01-01

The Southern Ocean around Antarctica is among the most rapidly warming regions on Earth, but has experienced episodic climate change during the past 40 million years. It remains unclear how ancient periods of climate change have shaped Antarctic biodiversity. The origin of antifreeze glycoproteins (AFGPs) in Antarctic notothenioid fishes has become a classic example of how the evolution of a key innovation in response to climate change can drive adaptive radiation. By using a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny of notothenioids and reconstructed paleoclimate, we demonstrate that the origin of AFGP occurred between 42 and 22 Ma, which includes a period of global cooling approximately 35 Ma. However, the most species-rich lineages diversified and evolved significant ecological differences at least 10 million years after the origin of AFGPs, during a second cooling event in the Late Miocene (11.6–5.3 Ma). This pattern indicates that AFGP was not the sole trigger of the notothenioid adaptive radiation. Instead, the bulk of the species richness and ecological diversity originated during the Late Miocene and into the Early Pliocene, a time coincident with the origin of polar conditions and increased ice activity in the Southern Ocean. Our results challenge the current understanding of the evolution of Antarctic notothenioids suggesting that the ecological opportunity that underlies this adaptive radiation is not linked to a single trait, but rather to a combination of freeze avoidance offered by AFGPs and subsequent exploitation of new habitats and open niches created by increased glacial and ice sheet activity. PMID:22331888

Remote sensing aides studies of climate and wildlife in the Arctic-on land, at sea, and in the air (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Douglas, D. C.; Durner, G. M.; Gill, R. E.; Griffith, B.; Schmutz, J. A.

2013-12-01

Every day a variety of remote sensing technologies collects large volumes of data that are supporting new analyses and new interpretations about how weather and climate influence the status and distribution of wildlife populations worldwide. Understanding how climate presently affects wildlife is crucial for projecting how climate change could affect wildlife in the future. This talk highlights climate-related wildlife studies by the US Geological Survey in the Arctic. The Arctic is experiencing some of the most pronounced climate changes on earth, raising concerns for species that have evolved seasonal migration strategies tuned to habitat availability and quality. On land, large herbivores such as caribou select concentrated calving areas with high abundance of rapidly growing vegetation and calf survival increases with earlier green-up and with the quantity of food available to cows at peak lactation. Geese time their migrations and reproductive efforts to coincide with optimal plant phenology and peak nutrient availability and departures from this synchrony can influence the survival of goslings. At sea, the habitats of polar bears and other sea-ice-dependent species have dramatically changed over just the past two decades. The ice pack is comprised of younger ice that melts much more extensively during summer-a trend projected to continue by all general circulation models under all but the most aggressive greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios. Studies show that by mid-century optimal polar bear habitats will be so reduced that the species may become extirpated from some regions of the Arctic. In the air, a variety of shorebird species make non-stop endurance flights between northern and southern hemispheres. The bar-tailed godwit undertakes a trans-Pacific flight between Alaska and Australasia that lasts more than seven days and spans more than 10,000 km. Studies show that godwits time their flights to coincide with favorable wind conditions, but stochastic weather events en route can impose energetic costs that affect reproduction and possibly survival. As more is learned about how climate and climate change affect species and ecosystems, better adaptive management decisions can be made. Remote sensing will continue to play an essential role.

Climate regulation enhances the value of second generation biofuel technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertel, T. W.; Steinbuks, J.; Tyner, W.

2014-12-01

Commercial scale implementation of second generation (2G) biofuels has long been 'just over the horizon - perhaps a decade away'. However, with recent innovations, and higher oil prices, we appear to be on the verge of finally seeing commercial scale implementations of cellulosic to liquid fuel conversion technologies. Interest in this technology derives from many quarters. Environmentalists see this as a way of reducing our carbon footprint, however, absent a global market for carbon emissions, private firms will not factor this into their investment decisions. Those interested in poverty and nutrition see this as a channel for lessening the biofuels' impact on food prices. But what is 2G technology worth to society? How valuable are prospective improvements in this technology? And how are these valuations affected by future uncertainties, including climate regulation, climate change impacts, and energy prices? This paper addresses all of these questions. We employ FABLE, a dynamic optimization model for the world's land resources which characterizes the optimal long run path for protected natural lands, managed forests, crop and livestock land use, energy extraction and biofuels over the period 2005-2105. By running this model twice for each future state of the world - once with 2G biofuels technology available and once without - we measure the contribution of the technology to global welfare. Given the uncertainty in how these technologies are likely to evolve, we consider a range cost estimates - from optimistic to pessimistic. In addition to technological uncertainty, there is great uncertainty in the conditions characterizing our baseline for the 21st century. For each of the 2G technology scenarios, we therefore also consider a range of outcomes for key drivers of global land use, including: population, income, oil prices, climate change impacts and climate regulation. We find that the social valuation of 2G technologies depends critically on climate change regulations and future oil prices. In the base case with no climate policy and higher oil prices, the value of second generation biofuels is roughly $8 billion. With stringent climate change regulations in place, 2G biofuels are worth about fifty percent more.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using RCM nested in GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayed, E.; Jeuland, M.; Aty, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

Sea Surface Temperature for Climate Applications: A New Dataset from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merchant, C. J.; Hulley, G. C.

2013-12-01

There are many datasets describing the evolution of global sea surface temperature (SST) over recent decades -- so why make another one? Answer: to provide observations of SST that have particular qualities relevant to climate applications: independence, accuracy and stability. This has been done within the European Space Agency (ESA) Climate Change Initative (CCI) project on SST. Independence refers to the fact that the new SST CCI dataset is not derived from or tuned to in situ observations. This matters for climate because the in situ observing network used to assess marine climate change (1) was not designed to monitor small changes over decadal timescales, and (2) has evolved significantly in its technology and mix of types of observation, even during the past 40 years. The potential for significant artefacts in our picture of global ocean surface warming is clear. Only by having an independent record can we confirm (or refute) that the work done to remove biases/trend artefacts in in-situ datasets has been successful. Accuracy is the degree to which SSTs are unbiased. For climate applications, a common accuracy target is 0.1 K for all regions of the ocean. Stability is the degree to which the bias, if any, in a dataset is constant over time. Long-term instability introduces trend artefacts. To observe trends of the magnitude of 'global warming', SST datasets need to be stable to <5 mK/year. The SST CCI project has produced a satellite-based dataset that addresses these characteristics relevant to climate applications. Satellite radiances (brightness temperatures) have been harmonised exploiting periods of overlapping observations between sensors. Less well-characterised sensors have had their calibration tuned to that of better characterised sensors (at radiance level). Non-conventional retrieval methods (optimal estimation) have been employed to reduce regional biases to the 0.1 K level, a target violated in most satellite SST datasets. Models for quantifying uncertainty have been developed to attach uncertainty to SST across a range of space-time scales. The stability of the data has been validated.

What's the Worst that Could Happen: A Veteran of the Climate Change Culture Wars Explains Why America Isn't Listening, and What to Do About It

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craven, G. A.

2010-12-01

In the Spring of 2007, high school science teacher Greg Craven posted a ten-minute whiteboard lecture on YouTube titled "The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See," in which he used a 2 x 2 grid to explore the relative risks of acting or not acting on climate change. Significantly, the conclusion he reached--that significant action should be taken immediately--did not rely on the actual science of climate change at all. Three years later, that video has been viewed over 8 million times, with no campaign, no money, and no organization--just the giving of the video's URL to Craven's 150 students on the last day of school. This example of the viral spread of a message through the Internet demonstrates the breathtaking speed with which the Power of One can act in the digital age. Spurred by criticisms of his argument (which Craven had invited, in the spirit of science), Craven spent several months reading tens of thousands of comments about his video, searching for every possible objection and counterargument that he could find. He eventually responded with a 7-hour series of videos on YouTube, updating the argument and addressing the criticisms. In the process, he became something of an expert in what--and how--the average American thinks about climate change. Craven then wrote the book "What's the Worst That Could Happen? A Rational Response to the Climate Change Debate," in which he proposes a process for the average lay person to use in order to decide the issue for themselves, without needing to decide which side in the debate to believe. The book is aimed squarely at the great unengaged majority--where the battle for action on climate change will ultimately be won or lost--in order to break their decision paralysis as they are overwhelmed with arguments from both sides of the debate. In this session, Craven will briefly share the grid of the original video that resonated with so many people, and will discuss the insights he's gained from debating online with the general public about climate change, as well as his proposed decision-making process that evolved as a result. He will also make suggestions about what scientists, both as professionals and as individual citizens, can do to communicate with the general public on the topic of climate change.

A Water Grid for the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leathard, A.; Fowler, H. J.; Kilsby, C. G.

2009-12-01

Anthropogenically aggravated climate change associated with intensive expansion of the global economy has increased the demand for water whilst simultaneously altering natural variability in its distribution, straining water resources unsustainably and inequitably in many parts of the world, increasing drought risk, and encouraging decision-makers to reconsider the security of water supply. Indeed, in the absence of additional resource development, contemporary planning forecasts imply increased water stress across much of the United Kingdom. Until recently the regulatory authorities of the UK promoted increased efficiency of water delivery and consumption combined with a portfolio of financial instruments as a means of reducing water stress, maintaining present levels of consumer service without significant further exploitation of the environment. However, despite an increasingly sophisticated understanding of climate change and its effects, significant uncertainty remains in the quantification of its impacts on the water sector, and questions persist as to the effectiveness of such demand management measures compared to that of more traditional infrastructure improvements. Faced with possible futures provided for by detrimentally over-stressed resources, what opportunities remain for future strategic development in the UK? Is there a single national strategy that is both politically and socially acceptable? Do the benefits of national water infrastructure projects outweigh their costs? This ongoing study aims to evolve robust national adaptation strategies by quantifying the projected impacts of climate change across mainland UK using multi-model and perturbed-physics ensembles of projected future climate, encapsulating uncertainties in a scenario-driven integrated water resources model incorporating socio-economic elements.

GPP Webinar: The Solar Roadmap—Navigating the Evolving Solar Energy Market

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

GPP and State & Local Climate and Energy Branch webinar on the Solar Roadmap and the evolving solar energy market. This webinar discussed local and state government’s success stories and opportunities for progress in renewable energy goals using the Solar

IPCC Climate Change 2013: Mitigation of Climate Change - Key Findings and Lessons Learned

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sokona, Youba

2014-05-01

The Working Group III contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Mitigation of Climate Change, examines the results of scientific research about mitigation, with special attention on how knowledge has evolved since the Fourth Assessment Report published in 2007. Throughout, the focus is on the implications of its findings for policy, without being prescriptive about the particular policies that governments and other important participants in the policy process should adopt. The report begins with a framing of important concepts and methods that help to contextualize the findings presented throughout the assessment. The valuation of risks and uncertainties, ethical concepts and the context of sustainable development and equity are among the guiding principles for the assessment of mitigation strategies. The report highlights past trends in stocks and flows of greenhouse gases and the factors that drive emissions at global, regional, and sectoral scales including economic growth, technology or population changes. It provides analyses of the technological, economic and institutional requirements of long-term mitigation scenarios and details on mitigation measures and policies that are applied in different economic sectors and human settlements. It then discusses interactions of mitigation policies and different policy instrument types at national, regional and global governance levels and between economic sectors, The Working Group III report comprises 16 chapters and in assembling this assessment authors were guided by the principles of the IPCC mandate: to be explicit about mitigation options, to be explicit about their costs and about their risks and opportunities vis-à-vis other development priorities, and to be explicit about the underlying criteria, concepts, and methods for evaluating alternative policies.

Relative contributions of mean-state shifts and ENSO-driven variability to precipitation changes in a warming climate

DOE PAGES

Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; ...

2015-12-18

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change.more » Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. Lastly, by examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.« less

Habitability Imposters: Extreme Terrestrial Climates in the Habitable Zone of M Dwarf Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lincowski, A. P.; Meadows, V. S.; Crisp, D.; Robinson, T. D.; Luger, R.; Arney, G. N.

2017-11-01

We use coupled climate-photochemical modeling of TRAPPIST-1 planets to present a variety of evolved environmental states and their spectral discriminants, for use by upcoming M dwarf planet characterization observations.

A new statistical tool for NOAA local climate studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Meyers, J. C.; Hollingshead, A.

2011-12-01

The National Weather Services (NWS) Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT) is evolving out of a need to support and enhance the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) field offices' ability to efficiently access, manipulate, and interpret local climate data and characterize climate variability and change impacts. LCAT will enable NOAA's staff to conduct regional and local climate studies using state-of-the-art station and reanalysis gridded data and various statistical techniques for climate analysis. The analysis results will be used for climate services to guide local decision makers in weather and climate sensitive actions and to deliver information to the general public. LCAT will augment current climate reference materials with information pertinent to the local and regional levels as they apply to diverse variables appropriate to each locality. The LCAT main emphasis is to enable studies of extreme meteorological and hydrological events such as tornadoes, flood, drought, severe storms, etc. LCAT will close a very critical gap in NWS local climate services because it will allow addressing climate variables beyond average temperature and total precipitation. NWS external partners and government agencies will benefit from the LCAT outputs that could be easily incorporated into their own analysis and/or delivery systems. Presently we identified five existing requirements for local climate: (1) Local impacts of climate change; (2) Local impacts of climate variability; (3) Drought studies; (4) Attribution of severe meteorological and hydrological events; and (5) Climate studies for water resources. The methodologies for the first three requirements will be included in the LCAT first phase implementation. Local rate of climate change is defined as a slope of the mean trend estimated from the ensemble of three trend techniques: (1) hinge, (2) Optimal Climate Normals (running mean for optimal time periods), (3) exponentially-weighted moving average. Root mean squared error is used to determine the best fit of trend to the observations with the least error. The studies of climate variability impacts on local extremes use composite techniques applied to various definitions of local variables: from specified percentiles to critical thresholds. Drought studies combine visual capabilities of Google maps with statistical estimates of drought severity indices. The process of development will be linked to local office interactions with users to ensure the tool will meet their needs as well as provide adequate training. A rigorous internal and tiered peer-review process will be implemented to ensure the studies are scientifically-sound that will be published and submitted to the local studies catalog (database) and eventually to external sources, such as the Climate Portal.

Surviving rapid climate change in the deep sea during the Paleogene hyperthermals.

PubMed

Foster, Laura C; Schmidt, Daniela N; Thomas, Ellen; Arndt, Sandra; Ridgwell, Andy

2013-06-04

Predicting the impact of ongoing anthropogenic CO2 emissions on calcifying marine organisms is complex, owing to the synergy between direct changes (acidification) and indirect changes through climate change (e.g., warming, changes in ocean circulation, and deoxygenation). Laboratory experiments, particularly on longer-lived organisms, tend to be too short to reveal the potential of organisms to acclimatize, adapt, or evolve and usually do not incorporate multiple stressors. We studied two examples of rapid carbon release in the geological record, Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (∼53.2 Ma) and the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM, ∼55.5 Ma), the best analogs over the last 65 Ma for future ocean acidification related to high atmospheric CO2 levels. We use benthic foraminifers, which suffered severe extinction during the PETM, as a model group. Using synchrotron radiation X-ray tomographic microscopy, we reconstruct the calcification response of survivor species and find, contrary to expectations, that calcification significantly increased during the PETM. In contrast, there was no significant response to the smaller Eocene Thermal Maximum 2, which was associated with a minor change in diversity only. These observations suggest that there is a response threshold for extinction and calcification response, while highlighting the utility of the geological record in helping constrain the sensitivity of biotic response to environmental change.

Increasing human pressure on freshwater resources threatens sustainability at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montanari, A.; Ceola, S.; Laio, F.

2017-12-01

Freshwater resources overexploitation and climate change are major threats to global sustainability and development in the XXI century, but nevertheless a global assessment of water threats evolution in time is still lacking. Here we demonstrate that nightlights are a good proxy for human pressure and investigate how it evolved from 1992 to 2013 in 2'148 major river basins. Globally, we find that human pressure positively evolved in the study period (1.8% increase per year as a global average), threatening future sustainability worldwide. The most critical conditions for sustainability are found within the equatorial area, showing markedly positive human pressure yearly trends (3.5% ± 2.2%). The results highlight that water threats are spreading worldwide and call for an urgent strategy to mitigate water overexploitation and related hazards to ecosystems and human security.

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vogel, Richard M.; Lall, Upmanu; Cai, Ximing; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Weiskel, Peter K.; Hooper, Richard P.; Matalas, Nicholas C.

2015-06-01

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth's hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Hydrology: The interdisciplinary science of water

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vogel, Richard M.; Lall, Upmanu; Cai, Ximing; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Weiskel, Peter K.; Hooper, Richard P.; Matalas, Nicholas C.

2015-01-01

We live in a world where biophysical and social processes are tightly coupled. Hydrologic systems change in response to a variety of natural and human forces such as climate variability and change, water use and water infrastructure, and land cover change. In turn, changes in hydrologic systems impact socioeconomic, ecological, and climate systems at a number of scales, leading to a coevolution of these interlinked systems. The Harvard Water Program, Hydrosociology, Integrated Water Resources Management, Ecohydrology, Hydromorphology, and Sociohydrology were all introduced to provide distinct, interdisciplinary perspectives on water problems to address the contemporary dynamics of human interaction with the hydrosphere and the evolution of the Earth’s hydrologic systems. Each of them addresses scientific, social, and engineering challenges related to how humans influence water systems and vice versa. There are now numerous examples in the literature of how holistic approaches can provide a structure and vision of the future of hydrology. We review selected examples, which taken together, describe the type of theoretical and applied integrated hydrologic analyses and associated curricular content required to address the societal issue of water resources sustainability. We describe a modern interdisciplinary science of hydrology needed to develop an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of the connectedness between human and natural systems and to determine effective solutions to resolve the complex water problems that the world faces today. Nearly, every theoretical hydrologic model introduced previously is in need of revision to accommodate how climate, land, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors interact, change, and evolve over time.

Experimental evidence of dynamic re-organization of evolving landscapes under changing climatic forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Arvind; Tejedor, Alejandro; Zaliapin, Ilya; Reinhardt, Liam; Foufoula-Georgiou, Efi

2015-04-01

The aim of this study is to better understand the dynamic re-organization of an evolving landscape under a scenario of changing climatic forcing for improving our knowledge of geomorphic transport laws under transient conditions and developing predictive models of landscape response to external perturbations. Real landscape observations for long-term analysis are limited and to this end a high resolution controlled laboratory experiment was conducted at the St. Anthony Falls laboratory at the University of Minnesota. Elevation data were collected at temporal resolution of 5 mins and spatial resolution of 0.5 mm as the landscape approached steady state (constant uplift and precipitation rate) and in the transient state (under the same uplift and 5x precipitation). The results reveal rapid topographic re-organization under a five-fold precipitation increase with the fluvial regime expanding into the previously debris dominated regime, accelerated erosion happening at hillslope scales, and rivers shifting from an erosion-limited to a transport-limited regime. From a connectivity and clustering analysis of the erosional and depositional events, we demonstrate the strikingly different spatial patterns of landscape evolution under steady-state (SS) and transient-state (TS), even when the time under SS is "stretched" compared to that under TS such as to match the total volume and PDF of erosional and depositional amounts. We quantify the spatial coupling of hillslopes and channels and demonstrate that hillslopes lead and channels follow in re-organizing the whole landscape under such an amplified precipitation regime.

The socio-hydrologic evolution of human-flood interactions on the Charles and Mystic River, eastern Massachusetts, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mertz, Z.

2015-12-01

Socio-hydrology is an emerging subdiscipline for identifying the emergent properties of human-flood interactions. The Charles and the Mystic Rivers, in eastern Massachusetts, have been the subject of such interactions for hundreds of years. Over time, human dependency and settlement have altered the natural conditions of the rivers, and changed the potential for flood occurrence and property damage. As a result, flood management strategies have been enacted to counter this potential. Before we can assess how human vulnerability and actions related to river flooding will change under future climate conditions, we must first document the evolution of flooding and flood management and understand the motivations and thresholds of response that describe how the system has evolved in the past. We have mined historical data from traditional and non-traditional sources and have developed "mental models" from in-depth interviews of key personnel. We will present the socio-hydrological history of the Charles and Mystic Rivers and recommend how this information can inform future flood management strategies in the face of climate change.

Investigating yellow dung fly body size evolution in the field: Response to climate change?

PubMed

Blanckenhorn, Wolf U

2015-08-01

Uncovering genetic responses to selection in wild populations typically requires tracking individuals over generations and use of animal models. Our group monitored the body size of one Swiss Yellow Dung Fly (Scathophaga stercoraria; Diptera: Scathophagidae) field population over 15 years, including intermittent common-garden rearing in the laboratory to assess body size with minimized environmental and maximized genetic variation. Contrary to expectations based on repeated heritability and phenotypic selection assessments over the years (reported elsewhere), field body sizes declined by >10% and common-garden laboratory sizes by >5% from 1993 to 2009. Our results confirm the temperature-size rule (smaller when warmer) and, albeit entirely correlational, could be mediated by climate change, as over this period mean temperature at the site increased by 0.5°C, although alternative systematic environmental changes cannot be entirely excluded. Monitoring genetic responses to selection in wild invertebrate populations is thus possible, though indirect, and wild populations may evolve in directions not consistent with strongly positive directional selection favoring large body size. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Phytoplankton Biogeography and Community Stability in the Ocean

PubMed Central

Cermeño, Pedro; de Vargas, Colomban; Abrantes, Fátima; Falkowski, Paul G.

2010-01-01

Background Despite enormous environmental variability linked to glacial/interglacial climates of the Pleistocene, we have recently shown that marine diatom communities evolved slowly through gradual changes over the past 1.5 million years. Identifying the causes of this ecological stability is key for understanding the mechanisms that control the tempo and mode of community evolution. Methodology/Principal Findings If community assembly were controlled by local environmental selection rather than dispersal, environmental perturbations would change community composition, yet, this could revert once environmental conditions returned to previous-like states. We analyzed phytoplankton community composition across >104 km latitudinal transects in the Atlantic Ocean and show that local environmental selection of broadly dispersed species primarily controls community structure. Consistent with these results, three independent fossil records of marine diatoms over the past 250,000 years show cycles of community departure and recovery tightly synchronized with the temporal variations in Earth's climate. Conclusions/Significance Changes in habitat conditions dramatically alter community structure, yet, we conclude that the high dispersal of marine planktonic microbes erases the legacy of past environmental conditions, thereby decreasing the tempo of community evolution. PMID:20368810

Translating Knowledge: The role of Shared Learning in Bridging the Science-Application Divide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moench, M.

2014-12-01

As the organizers of this session state: "Understanding and managing our future relation with the Earth requires research and knowledge spanning diverse fields, and integrated, societally-relevant science that is geared toward solutions." In most cases, however, integration is weak and scientific outputs do not match decision maker requirements. As a result, while scientific results may be highly relevant to society that relevance is operationally far from clear. This paper explores the use of shared learning processes to bridge the gap between the evolving body of scientific information on climate change and its relevance for resilience planning in cities across Asia. Examples related to understanding uncertainty, the evolution of scientific knowledge from different sources, and data extraction and presentation are given using experiences generated over five years of work as part of the Rockefeller Foundation supported Asian Cities Climate Change Resilience Network and other programs. Results suggest that processes supporting effective translation of knowledge between different sources and different applications are essential for the identification of solutions that respond to the dynamics and uncertainties inherent in global change processes.

A Climate Information Platform for Copernicus (CLIPC): managing the data flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juckes, Martin; Swart, Rob; Bärring, Lars; Groot, Annemarie; Thysse, Peter; Som de Cerff, Wim; Costa, Luis; Lückenkötter, Johannes; Callaghan, Sarah; Bennett, Victoria

2016-04-01

The FP7 project "Climate Information Platform for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing a demonstration portal for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The project confronts many problems associated with the huge diversity of underlying data, complex multi-layered uncertainties and extremely complex and evolving user requirements. The infrastructure is founded on a comprehensive approach to managing data and documentation, using global domain independent standards where possible. An extensive thesaurus of terms provides both a robust and flexible foundation for data discovery services and accessible definitions to support users. It is, of course, essential to provide information to users through an interface which reflects their expectations rather than the intricacies of abstract data models. CLIPC has reviewed user engagement activities from other collaborative European projects, conducted user polls, interviews and meetings and is now entering an evaluation phase in which users discuss new features and options in the portal design. The CLIPC portal will provide access to raw climate science data and climate impact indicators derived from that data. The portal needs the flexibility to support access to extremely large datasets as well as providing means to manipulate data and explore complex products interactively.

Attribution of the Regional Patterns of North American Climate Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoerling, M.; Kumar, A.; Karoly, D.; Rind, D.; Hegerl, G.; Eischeid, J.

2007-12-01

North American trends in surface temperature and precipitation during 1951-2006 exhibit large spatial and seasonal variations. We seek to explain these by synthesizing new information based on existing model simulations of climate and its forcing, and based on modern reanalyses that describe past and current conditions within the free atmosphere. The presentation focuses on current capabilities to explain the spatial variations and seasonal differences in North American climate trends. It will address whether various heterogeneities in space and time can be accounted for by the climate system's sensitivity to time evolving anthropogenic forcing, and examines the influences of non-anthropogenic processes. New findings are presented that indicate anthropogenic forcing alone was unlikely the cause for key regional and seasonal patterns of change, including the absence of summertime warming over the Great Plains of the United States, and the absence of warming during both winter and summer over the southern United States. Key regional features are instead attributed to trends in the principal patterns of atmospheric flow that affect North American climate. It is demonstrated that observed variations in global sea surface temperatures have significantly influenced these patterns of atmospheric flow.

Climate change, marine environments, and the US Endangered species act.

PubMed

Seney, Erin E; Rowland, Melanie J; Lowery, Ruth Ann; Griffis, Roger B; McClure, Michelle M

2013-12-01

Climate change is expected to be a top driver of global biodiversity loss in the 21st century. It poses new challenges to conserving and managing imperiled species, particularly in marine and estuarine ecosystems. The use of climate-related science in statutorily driven species management, such as under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), is in its early stages. This article provides an overview of ESA processes, with emphasis on the mandate to the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) to manage listed marine, estuarine, and anadromous species. Although the ESA is specific to the United States, its requirements are broadly relevant to conservation planning. Under the ESA, species, subspecies, and "distinct population segments" may be listed as either endangered or threatened, and taking of most listed species (harassing, harming, pursuing, wounding, killing, or capturing) is prohibited unless specifically authorized via a case-by-case permit process. Government agencies, in addition to avoiding take, must ensure that actions they fund, authorize, or conduct are not likely to jeopardize a listed species' continued existence or adversely affect designated critical habitat. Decisions for which climate change is likely to be a key factor include: determining whether a species should be listed under the ESA, designating critical habitat areas, developing species recovery plans, and predicting whether effects of proposed human activities will be compatible with ESA-listed species' survival and recovery. Scientific analyses that underlie these critical conservation decisions include risk assessment, long-term recovery planning, defining environmental baselines, predicting distribution, and defining appropriate temporal and spatial scales. Although specific guidance is still evolving, it is clear that the unprecedented changes in global ecosystems brought about by climate change necessitate new information and approaches to conservation of imperiled species. El Cambio Climático, los Ecosistemas Marinos y el Acta Estadunidense de Especies en Peligro. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Lagoon islets as indicators of recent environmental changes in the South Pacific - The New Caledonian example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcin, Manuel; Vendé-Leclerc, Myriam; Maurizot, Pierre; Le Cozannet, Gonéri; Robineau, Bernard; Nicolae-Lerma, Alexandre

2016-07-01

The question of the impacts of climate change and sea level rise on small islands is currently much discussed. The many thousands of Pacific islands in their different contexts (geodynamic, climatic, etc.) and the insufficient data available explain why it is difficult to clearly discern the specific role of climate change in the recent evolution of these islands. To address this question, we investigated the recent changes affecting 21 islets in New Caledonia's lagoon. These islets are either located on small patch-reefs inside the New Caledonia Island lagoon or lie directly on the barrier reef. Based on the studies we conducted (field surveys, reconstruction of changes in the islets over the last decades, shoreline changes) we were able to define a typology of the islets that includes 6 stages and a life expectancy index. Using the life expectancy index, we found that of the 21 islets studied, 19% are in a highly critical situation, meaning they are very likely to be endangered in the short term (within the next few years), 9.5% are in a critical situation, i.e., likely to disappear in the near future and very likely to disappear in the medium term (next few decades), 19% are evolving rapidly, which could lead to their disappearance in the medium term but not in the short term, 9.5% are not endangered in the short and medium term and 43% are not endangered at all (stable or accreting, large area, relatively higher altitude). In this context, the rise in sea level induced by climate change is an adverse factor which is likely to lower the resilience of the islets to erosion processes. Other factors like the degradation of the reef ecosystem due to variations in ocean salinity, temperature and acidity, lower sediment stocks on the beaches and foreshores, human visitors, coastal development and so on are other adverse factors that could modify the capacity for resilience of these islets. Due to their variety and sensitivity, New Caledonia's islets could thus serve as integrative indicators of environmental and climatic change for New Caledonia.

Projected changes in precipitation intensity and frequency over complex topography: a multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andreas; Keller, Denise; Liniger, Mark; Rajczak, Jan; Schär, Christoph; Appenzeller, Christof

2014-05-01

Fundamental changes in the hydrological cycle are expected in a future warmer climate. This is of particular relevance for the Alpine region, as a source and reservoir of several major rivers in Europe and being prone to extreme events such as floodings. For this region, climate change assessments based on the ENSEMBLES regional climate models (RCMs) project a significant decrease in summer mean precipitation under the A1B emission scenario by the mid-to-end of this century, while winter mean precipitation is expected to slightly rise. From an impact perspective, projected changes in seasonal means, however, are often insufficient to adequately address the multifaceted challenges of climate change adaptation. In this study, we revisit the full matrix of the ENSEMBLES RCM projections regarding changes in frequency and intensity, precipitation-type (convective versus stratiform) and temporal structure (wet/dry spells and transition probabilities) over Switzerland and surroundings. As proxies for raintype changes, we rely on the model parameterized convective and large-scale precipitation components. Part of the analysis involves a Bayesian multi-model combination algorithm to infer changes from the multi-model ensemble. The analysis suggests a summer drying that evolves altitude-specific: over low-land regions it is associated with wet-day frequency decreases of convective and large-scale precipitation, while over elevated regions it is primarily associated with a decline in large-scale precipitation only. As a consequence, almost all the models project an increase in the convective fraction at elevated Alpine altitudes. The decrease in the number of wet days during summer is accompanied by decreases (increases) in multi-day wet (dry) spells. This shift in multi-day episodes also lowers the likelihood of short dry spell occurrence in all of the models. For spring and autumn the combined multi-model projections indicate higher mean precipitation intensity north of the Alps, while a similar tendency is expected for the winter season over most of Switzerland.

Developing and Evaluating Workshop Frameworks to Improve Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Averyt, K.; Alvord, C.; Joyce, L. A.; Lukas, J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Owen, G.; Udall, B.

2009-12-01

A burgeoning need for climate information is rising from a variety of stakeholders. A new federal report encourages federal resource management efforts to consider climate in assessments-leaving agency scientists and resource managers searching for appropriate data and methodologies. At the other end of the spectrum, small-scale decision makers realize the need to develop scientifically-informed climate adaptation plans, but are unclear about what science is relevant. It is becoming necessary to improve the climate literacy across all sectors. However, past examples illustrate that climate science has been insufficiently communicated, resulting in perceptions that misinform decision-making and planning. Given the necessity to include climate science in planning on multiple scales, scientific educators must work with stakeholders to determine how best to improve climate literacy. Doing so will reduce uncertainty in the application of climate data in planning, and thus mitigate vulnerabilities to the impacts of climate change. Here, we present the design and assessment of two workshop frameworks intended to improve the climate literacy of two distinct entities with different climate information needs. This work represents initial steps by the Western Water Assessment, a NOAA- Regionally Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) Program, towards the development of a suite of process-oriented frameworks geared toward improving the climate literacy of different users with distinct informational needs. Both workshops focused on water-related climate issues: the first (Dealing with Drought: Climate Change in Colorado) was geared toward an audience with minimal exposure to climate information; the second was for US Forest Service hydrologists and managers with technical backgrounds. In both cases, the workshop format included presentations of relevant climate science, introductions to varied climate tools and products, and a needs-and-gaps assessment. Evaluation of each workshop drew upon a variety of tested social science methods, such as focus groups, decision games, surveys, and structured interviews. The efficacy of the framework developed was assessed by evaluating the relationship among the climate information presented, user perceptions about climate information, and incorporation into decision-making. In addition to climate literacy evaluations, participants were presented with a scenario at the beginning of the meeting, and were asked to report periodically on their thoughts on how to approach the scenario as new information was presented throughout the workshop. This allowed us to track the co-evolution of climate literacy, accuracy of data interpretation, and the sophistication of participants’ decision-making. In the 12-months after each workshop, we will track how the climate literacy of the participants evolves, and how their informational needs for decision-making change. The results here will frame a process for how a larger, federal climate-training program might be conducted, and how training needs can be assessed through climate literacy assessments.

Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: An EMIC intercomparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zickfeld, K.; Eby, M.; Weaver, A. J.

2012-12-01

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to: (i) quantify the climate change "commitment" of a range of radiative forcing trajectories, and (ii) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible if atmospheric CO2 is left to evolve freely or is artificially restored to pre-industrial levels. All commitment simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to 2300. Most EMICs simulate significant surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The additional warming by the year 3000 is 0.0-0.6 °C for RCP4.5 and 0.0-1.2 °C for RCP8.5, and the additional sea level rise is 0.1-1.0 m for RCP4.5 and 0.4-2.6 m for RCP8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions results in constant or slightly decreasing surface air temperature in all EMICs. Thermosteric sea level rise continues after elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, with additional sea level rise between 2300 and 3000 of 0.0-0.5 m for RCP4.5 and 0.2-2.4 m for RCP8.5. The largest warming and sea level rise commitment are simulated for the case with constant year-2300 CO2 emissions. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to pre-industrial levels over 100-1000 years does not result in the simultaneous return to pre-industrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level rise exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2, and requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. Results of the climate change commitment and reversibility simulations differ widely among EMICs, both in the physical and biogeochemical response. Particularly large differences are identified in the response of the terrestrial carbon cycle to atmospheric CO2 and climate, highlighting the need for improved understanding and representation of land carbon cycle processes in Earth System models.

Coral reefs under rapid climate change and ocean acidification.

PubMed

Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Mumby, P J; Hooten, A J; Steneck, R S; Greenfield, P; Gomez, E; Harvell, C D; Sale, P F; Edwards, A J; Caldeira, K; Knowlton, N; Eakin, C M; Iglesias-Prieto, R; Muthiga, N; Bradbury, R H; Dubi, A; Hatziolos, M E

2007-12-14

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration is expected to exceed 500 parts per million and global temperatures to rise by at least 2 degrees C by 2050 to 2100, values that significantly exceed those of at least the past 420,000 years during which most extant marine organisms evolved. Under conditions expected in the 21st century, global warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, with corals becoming increasingly rare on reef systems. The result will be less diverse reef communities and carbonate reef structures that fail to be maintained. Climate change also exacerbates local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species, driving reefs increasingly toward the tipping point for functional collapse. This review presents future scenarios for coral reefs that predict increasingly serious consequences for reef-associated fisheries, tourism, coastal protection, and people. As the International Year of the Reef 2008 begins, scaled-up management intervention and decisive action on global emissions are required if the loss of coral-dominated ecosystems is to be avoided.

Data Serving Climate Simulation Science at the NASA Center for Climate Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salmon, Ellen M.

2011-01-01

The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) provides high performance computational resources, a multi-petabyte archive, and data services in support of climate simulation research and other NASA-sponsored science. This talk describes the NCCS's data-centric architecture and processing, which are evolving in anticipation of researchers' growing requirements for higher resolution simulations and increased data sharing among NCCS users and the external science community.

Adaptation to Interannual and Interdecadal Climate Variability in Agricultural Production Systems of the Argentine Pampas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podestá, G. P.; Bert, F.; Weber, E.; Laciana, C.; Rajagopalan, B.; Letson, D.

2007-05-01

Agricultural ecosystems play a central role in world food production and food security, and involve one of the most climate-sensitive sectors of society-agriculture. We focus on crop production in the Argentine Pampas, one of the world's major agricultural regions. Climate of the Pampas shows marked variability at both interannual and decadal time scales. We explored the scope for adaptive management in response to climate information on interannual scales. We show that different assumptions about what decision makers are trying to achieve (i.e., their objective functions) may change what actions are considered as "optimal" for a given climate context. Optimal actions also were used to estimate the economic value of forecasts of an ENSO phase. Decision constraints (e.g., crop rotations) have critical influence on value of the forecasting system. Gaps in knowledge or misconceptions about climate variability were identified in open-ended "mental model" interviews. Results were used to design educational interventions. A marked increase in precipitation since the 1970s, together with new production technologies, led to major changes in land use patterns in the Pampas. Continuous cropping has widely replaced agriculture-pasture rotations. Nevertheless, production systems that evolved partly in response to increased rainfall may not be viable if climate reverts to a drier epoch. We use historical data to define a range of plausible climate trajectories 20-30 years hence. Regional scenarios are downscaled using semi-parametric weather generators to produce multiple realizations of daily weather consistent with decadal scenarios. Finally, we use the synthetic climate, crop growth models, and realistic models of decision-making under risk to compute risk metrics (e.g., probability of yields or profits being below a threshold). Climatically optimal and marginal locations show differential responses: probabilities of negative economic results are much higher in currently marginal areas if precipitations decrease.

Shifts in the Source and Composition of Dissolved Organic Matter in Southwest Greenland Lakes Along a Regional Hydro-climatic Gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osburn, Christopher L.; Anderson, Nicholas J.; Stedmon, Colin A.; Giles, Madeline E.; Whiteford, Erika J.; McGenity, Terry J.; Dumbrell, Alex J.; Underwood, Graham J. C.

2017-12-01

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentration and quality were examined from Arctic lakes located in three clusters across south-west (SW) Greenland, covering the regional climatic gradient: cool, wet coastal zone; dry inland interior; and cool, dry ice-marginal areas. We hypothesized that differences in mean annual precipitation between sites would result in a reduced hydrological connectivity between lakes and their catchments and that this concentrates degraded DOM. The DOM in the inland lake group was characterized by a lower aromaticity and molecular weight, a low soil-like fluorescence, and carbon stable isotope (δ13C-DOC) values enriched by 2‰ relative to the coastal group. DOC-specific absorbance (SUVA254) and DOC-specific soil-like fluorescence (SUVFC1) revealed seasonal and climatic gradients across which DOM exhibited a dynamic we term "pulse-process": Pulses of DOM exported from soils to lakes during snow and ice melt were followed by pulses of autochthonous DOM inputs (possibly from macrophytes), and their subsequent photochemical and microbial processing. These effects regulated the dynamics of DOM in the inland lakes and suggested that if circumpolar lakes currently situated in cool wetter climatic regimes with strong hydrological connectivity have reduced connectivity under a drier future climate, they may evolve toward an end-point of large stocks of highly degraded DOC, equivalent to the inland lakes in the present study. The regional climatic gradient across SW Greenland and its influence on DOM properties in these lakes provide a model of possible future changes to lake C cycling in high-latitude systems where climatic changes are most pronounced.

The continuum of hydroclimate variability in western North America during the last millennium

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Cole, Julia E.; Overpeck, Jonathan T.; Pederson, Gregory T.; St. George, Scott; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Woodhouse, Connie A.; Deser, Clara

2013-01-01

The distribution of climatic variance across the frequency spectrum has substantial importance for anticipating how climate will evolve in the future. Here we estimate power spectra and power laws (ß) from instrumental, proxy, and climate model data to characterize the hydroclimate continuum in western North America (WNA). We test the significance of our estimates of spectral densities and ß against the null hypothesis that they reflect solely the effects of local (non-climate) sources of autocorrelation at the monthly timescale. Although tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstructions are generally consistent with this null hypothesis, values of ß calculated from long-moisture sensitive chronologies (as opposed to reconstructions), and other types of hydroclimate proxies, exceed null expectations. We therefore argue that there is more low-frequency variability in hydroclimate than monthly autocorrelation alone can generate. Coupled model results archived as part of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) are consistent with the null hypothesis and appear unable to generate variance in hydroclimate commensurate with paleoclimate records. Consequently, at decadal to multidecadal timescales there is more variability in instrumental and proxy data than in the models, suggesting that the risk of prolonged droughts under climate change may be underestimated by CMIP5 simulations of the future.

The evolving landscape and climate of western Flores: an environmental context for the archaeological site of Liang Bua.

PubMed

Westaway, K E; Roberts, R G; Sutikna, T; Morwood, M J; Drysdale, R; Zhao, J-x; Chivas, A R

2009-11-01

The rapidly changing landscape of the eastern Indonesian archipelago has evolved at a pace dictated by its tropical climate and its geological and tectonic history. This has produced accelerated karstification, flights of alluvial terraces, and complex, multi-level cave systems. These cave systems sometimes contain a wealth of archaeological evidence, such as the almost complete skeleton of Homo floresiensis found at the site of Liang Bua in western Flores, but this information can only be understood in the context of the geomorphic history of the cave, and the more general geological, tectonic, and environmental histories of the river valley and region. Thus, a reconstruction of the landscape history of the Wae Racang valley using speleothems, geological structure, tectonic uplift, karst, cave, and terrace development, provides the necessary evidence to determine the formation, age, evolution, and influences on the site. This evidence suggests that Liang Bua was formed as two subterranean chambers approximately 600ka, but could not be occupied until approximately 190ka when the Wae Racang wandered to the southern side of the valley, exposing the chamber and depositing alluvial deposits containing artifacts. During the next approximately 190k.yr., the chambers coalesced and evolved into a multi-level and interconnected cave that was subjected to channel erosion and pooling events by the development of sinkholes. The domed morphology of the front chamber accumulated deep sediments containing well stratified archaeological and faunal remains, but ponded water in the chamber further prevented hominin use of the cave until approximately 100ka. These chambers were periodically influenced by river inundation and volcanic activity, whereas the area outside the cave was greatly influenced by glacial phases, which changed humid forest environments into grassland environments. This combined evidence has important implications for the archaeological interpretation of the site.

The thermal niche of Neotropical nectar-feeding bats: Its evolution and application to predict responses to global warming.

PubMed

Ortega-García, Stephanie; Guevara, Lázaro; Arroyo-Cabrales, Joaquín; Lindig-Cisneros, Roberto; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique; Vega, Ernesto; Schondube, Jorge E

2017-09-01

The thermal niche of a species is one of the main determinants of its ecology and biogeography. In this study, we determined the thermal niche of 23 species of Neotropical nectar-feeding bats of the subfamily Glossophaginae (Chiroptera, Phyllostomidae). We calculated their thermal niches using temperature data obtained from collection records, by generating a distribution curve of the maximum and minimum temperatures per locality, and using the inflection points of the temperature distributions to estimate the species optimal (STZ) and suboptimal (SRZ) zones of the thermal niche. Additionally, by mapping the values of the STZ and SRZ on a phylogeny of the group, we generated a hypothesis of the evolution of the thermal niches of this clade of nectar-feeding bats. Finally, we used the characteristics of their thermal niches to predict the responses of these organisms to climate change. We found a large variation in the width and limits of the thermal niches of nectar-feeding bats. Additionally, while the upper limits of the thermal niches varied little among species, their lower limits differ wildly. The ancestral reconstruction of the thermal niche indicated that this group of Neotropical bats evolved under cooler temperatures. The two clades inside the Glossophaginae differ in the evolution of their thermal niches, with most members of the clade Choeronycterines evolving "colder" thermal niches, while the majority of the species in the clade Glossophagines evolving "warmer" thermal niches. By comparing thermal niches with climate change models, we found that all species could be affected by an increase of 1°C in temperature at the end of this century. This suggests that even nocturnal species could suffer important physiological costs from global warming. Our study highlights the value of scientific collections to obtain ecologically significant physiological data for a large number of species.

The World Meteorological Organization Focus on Urban Issues

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terblanche, D. E.

2015-12-01

Many of the milestones of human development can be traced back to people assembled in urban settings where economies of scale, competition and social interaction stimulated innovation. Considering that more than half the global pollution now lives in cities and towns and that most of the growth in the global pollution in the remainder of this century will continue to take place in the urban environment, the question could be asked whether humankind will continue to capitalize on the traditional benefits of city life to find solutions for growing environmental challenges? In the past cities developed organically. They evolved through trial and error into livable environments. Things have now changed. The global population is larger, urbanization is rapid, pressure on Earth's limited resources is constraining and we are faced with a changing climate. If cities are now allowed to develop in a haphazard manner, the fight for survival in the city will overshadow its entrepreneurial spirit. It is for this reason that the 11th Sustainable Development Goal will focus on: 'Making cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable'. There is now a window of opportunity for weather, climate, water and environmental scientists to contribute towards a more sustainable urban future by ensuring that science based services form an integrated part of urban planning, development and management. WMO recognizes that rapid urbanization will require new types of new and enhanced services. Such integrated urban weather, environment and climate services will assist cities to deal better with hazards such as storm surge, flooding, heat waves, and air pollution episodes, especially in a changing climate. From a research perspective the World Climate Research Programme, the World Weather Research Programme and the Global Atmosphere Watch Programme all have a unique contribution to make in this regard.

Tipping Points in Resource Abundance Drive Irreversible Changes in Community Structure.

PubMed

Haney, Seth D; Siepielski, Adam M

2018-05-01

Global climate change has made what were seemingly extraordinary environmental conditions, such as prolonged droughts, commonplace. One consequence of extreme environmental change is concomitant changes in resource abundance. How will such extreme resource changes impact biodiversity? We developed a trait-based consumer-resource model to examine how resource abundance affects the potential for adaptive evolution and coexistence among competitors. We found that moderate changes in resource abundance have little effect on trait evolution. However, when resource scarcities were sufficiently extreme, a critical transition-a tipping point-occurred, which caused consumer traits to diverge and restructured the community in a way that outlasted the scarcity. Therefore, even though traits can evolve in response to minor resource fluctuations, large environmental shifts may be necessary for producing long-lasting impacts on community structure. These results may also help to illuminate patterns of stasis frequently observed in nature, despite the considerable evidence demonstrating rapid evolutionary change.

Accounting for interannual variability: A comparison of options for water resources climate change impact assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Fiona; Sharma, Ashish

2011-04-01

Empirical scaling approaches for constructing rainfall scenarios from general circulation model (GCM) simulations are commonly used in water resources climate change impact assessments. However, these approaches have a number of limitations, not the least of which is that they cannot account for changes in variability or persistence at annual and longer time scales. Bias correction of GCM rainfall projections offers an attractive alternative to scaling methods as it has similar advantages to scaling in that it is computationally simple, can consider multiple GCM outputs, and can be easily applied to different regions or climatic regimes. In addition, it also allows for interannual variability to evolve according to the GCM simulations, which provides additional scenarios for risk assessments. This paper compares two scaling and four bias correction approaches for estimating changes in future rainfall over Australia and for a case study for water supply from the Warragamba catchment, located near Sydney, Australia. A validation of the various rainfall estimation procedures is conducted on the basis of the latter half of the observational rainfall record. It was found that the method leading to the lowest prediction errors varies depending on the rainfall statistic of interest. The flexibility of bias correction approaches in matching rainfall parameters at different frequencies is demonstrated. The results also indicate that for Australia, the scaling approaches lead to smaller estimates of uncertainty associated with changes to interannual variability for the period 2070-2099 compared to the bias correction approaches. These changes are also highlighted using the case study for the Warragamba Dam catchment.

When will we be committed to crossing 1.5 and 2 °C temperature thresholds?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armour, K.; Proistosescu, C.; Roe, G.; Huybers, P. J.

2017-12-01

The zero-emissions climate commitment is a key metric for science and policy. It is the future warming we face given only to-date emissions, independent of future human influence on climate. Following a cessation of emissions, future global temperature change depends on (i) the atmospheric lifetimes of aerosols and greenhouse gases (GHGs), and (ii) the physical climate response to radiative forcing (Armour and Roe 2011). The cooling effect of aerosols diminishes within weeks; GHG concentrations get drawn down on timescales ranging from months to millennia; and ocean heat uptake diminishes as climate equilibrates with the residual CO2 forcing. Whether global temperature increases, stays stable, or declines following emission cessation depends on these competing factors. There is substantial uncertainty in the zero-emissions commitment due to a combination of (i) correlated uncertainties in aerosol radiative forcing and climate sensitivity, (ii) uncertainty in the atmospheric lifetime of CO2, and (iii) uncertainty in how climate sensitivity will evolve in the future. Here we quantify climate commitment in a Bayesian framework of an idealized model constrained by observations of global warming and energy imbalance, combined with estimates of global radiative forcing. At present, our committed warming is 1.2°C (median), with a 25% chance that it already exceeds 1.5°C and a 5% chance that it exceeds 2°C; the range comes primarily from uncertainty in the degree to which aerosols currently mask GHG forcing. We further quantify how climate commitment, and its uncertainty, changes with emissions scenario and over time. Under high emissions (RCP8.5), we will reach a >50% risk of a 2°C zero-emission climate commitment by the year 2035, about two decades before that temperature would be reached if emissions continued unabated. Committed warming is substantially reduced for lower-emissions scenarios, depending on the mix of aerosol and GHG mitigation. For the next few decades the primary uncertainty in climate commitment comes from correlated uncertainties in aerosol forcing and climate sensitivity; later in the century it comes from uncertainties in the carbon cycle (setting the lifetime and residual concentration of CO2) and in how climate sensitivity changes over time.

Prediction of future climate change for the Blue Nile, using a nested Regional Climate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soliman, E.; Jeuland, M.

2009-04-01

Although the Nile River Basin is rich in natural resources, it faces many challenges. Rainfall is highly variable across the region, on both seasonal and inter-annual scales. This variability makes the region vulnerable to droughts and floods. Many development projects involving Nile waters are currently underway, or being studied. These projects will lead to land-use patterns changes and water distribution and availability. It is thus important to assess the effects of a) these projects and b) evolving water resource management and policies, on regional hydrological processes. This paper seeks to establish a basis for evaluation of such impacts within the Blue Nile River sub-basin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. We first present results from application of this RCM model nested with downscaled outputs obtained from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 transient simulations for the 20th Century. We then investigate changes associated with mid-21st century emissions forcing of the SRES A1B scenario. The results obtained from the climate model are then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System (NFS), a hydrologic distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin, The interaction between climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface has been fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates have been generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns have been simulated using the NFS. This paper compares the results obtained from the RegCM3 climate model with observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for 1985-2000. The validity of the streamflow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, we present results from modeling of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055. Our results indicate that future changes in rainfall may vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. Our results suggest that there may be good reasons for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the more commonly used GCMs.

Exploring hydrological uncertainties and thresholds of a drought vulnerable region in Austria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hohmann, Clara; Kirchengast, Gottfried; Birk, Steffen

2015-04-01

In the region of South-Eastern Styria, Austria, a strong increase of summer temperature over the last decades was recognized by Kabas et. al. (Meteorol. Z./ 20 (3), 277-289, 2011). With climate change the temperature will further increase, so that the possibility for more frequent droughts in summer will rise. This leads to the question if, for example, a steppe climate similar to that in the neighboring Hungarian Pussta can evolve in this region. Drastic climatic changes will be accompanied by strong changes in the hydrological balance. Since the region is strongly influenced by agriculture and other non-climatic factors as well, these human impacts on the water cycle must be considered. The Wegener Center, University of Graz is studying the Raab catchment in South-Eastern Styria, Austria, as an example of a small catchment of the climate-sensitive southern Alpine foothills. The available data indicate that the region is vulnerable to droughts in summer, signalled by a strong temperature increase over the recent decades and a tendency of precipitation decrease. The main goals of this study are to explore how the water balance in the region is going to change in the future, what the most significant uncertainties are and where there might be thresholds towards drastic changes. In this poster we report on the first steps, which is to build up a hydrological model for the Styrian Raab valley based on the Water balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) of ETH Zurich, Switzerland. Within the calibration the focus is on low flow conditions in summer. Given that the model shows good results for the well observed recent decades, a sensitivity analysis for changes in specific (control) parameters of the surface water balance is conducted. This will include anomalies of temperature and precipitation, water use for irrigation, and others. This enables to explore how warmer temperatures or changes in irrigation and crops affect the catchment. Model analyses do not only focus on flow conditions but also on internal variables, such as the soil moisture, which has a significant impact on the water balance and the drought vulnerability of the region.

Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

2017-12-01

The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

Microbial oceanography and the Hawaii Ocean Time-series programme.

PubMed

Karl, David M; Church, Matthew J

2014-10-01

The Hawaii Ocean Time-series (HOT) programme has been tracking microbial and biogeochemical processes in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre since October 1988. The near-monthly time series observations have revealed previously undocumented phenomena within a temporally dynamic ecosystem that is vulnerable to climate change. Novel microorganisms, genes and unexpected metabolic pathways have been discovered and are being integrated into our evolving ecological paradigms. Continued research, including higher-frequency observations and at-sea experimentation, will help to provide a comprehensive scientific understanding of microbial processes in the largest biome on Earth.

Reconstructing Late Holocene North Atlantic atmospheric circulation changes using functional paleoclimate networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Franke, Jasper G.; Werner, Johannes P.; Donner, Reik V.

2017-11-01

Obtaining reliable reconstructions of long-term atmospheric circulation changes in the North Atlantic region presents a persistent challenge to contemporary paleoclimate research, which has been addressed by a multitude of recent studies. In order to contribute a novel methodological aspect to this active field, we apply here evolving functional network analysis, a recently developed tool for studying temporal changes of the spatial co-variability structure of the Earth's climate system, to a set of Late Holocene paleoclimate proxy records covering the last two millennia. The emerging patterns obtained by our analysis are related to long-term changes in the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the region, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). By comparing the time-dependent inter-regional linkage structures of the obtained functional paleoclimate network representations to a recent multi-centennial NAO reconstruction, we identify co-variability between southern Greenland, Svalbard, and Fennoscandia as being indicative of a positive NAO phase, while connections from Greenland and Fennoscandia to central Europe are more pronounced during negative NAO phases. By drawing upon this correspondence, we use some key parameters of the evolving network structure to obtain a qualitative reconstruction of the NAO long-term variability over the entire Common Era (last 2000 years) using a linear regression model trained upon the existing shorter reconstruction.

NOAA Climate Information and Tools for Decision Support Services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timofeyeva, M. M.; Higgins, W.; Strager, C.; Horsfall, F. M.

2013-12-01

NOAA is an active participant of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) contributing data, information, analytical capabilities, forecasts, and decision support services to the Climate Services Partnership (CSP). These contributions emerge from NOAA's own climate services, which have evolved to respond to the urgent and growing need for reliable, trusted, transparent, and timely climate information across all sectors of the U.S. economy. Climate services not only enhance development opportunities in many regions, but also reduce vulnerability to climate change around the world. The NOAA contribution lies within the NOAA Climate Goal mission, which is focusing its efforts on four key climate priority areas: water, extremes, coastal inundation, and marine ecosystems. In order to make progress in these areas, NOAA is exploiting its fundamental capabilities, including foundational research to advance understanding of the Earth system, observations to preserve and build the climate data record and monitor changes in climate conditions, climate models to predict and project future climate across space and time scales, and the development and delivery of decision support services focused on risk management. NOAA's National Weather Services (NWS) is moving toward provision of Decision Support Services (DSS) as a part of the Roadmap on the way to achieving a Weather Ready National (WRN) strategy. Both short-term and long-term weather, water, and climate information are critical for DSS and emergency services and have been integrated into NWS in the form of pilot projects run by National and Regional Operations Centers (NOC and ROCs respectively) as well as several local offices. Local offices with pilot projects have been focusing their efforts on provision of timely and actionable guidance for specific tasks such as DSS in support of Coastal Environments and Integrated Environmental Studies. Climate information in DSS extends the concept of climate services to provision of information that will help guide long-term preparedness for severe weather events and extreme conditions as well as climate variability and change GFCS recently summarized examples of existing initiatives to advance provision of climate services in the 2012 publication Climate ExChange. In this publication, NWS introduced the new Local Climate Analysis Tool (LCAT), a tool that is used to conduct local climate studies that are needed to create efficient and reliable guidance for DSS. LCAT allows for analyzing trends in local climate variables and identifying local impacts of climate variability (e.g., ENSO) on weather and water conditions. In addition to LCAT, NWS, working in partnership with the North East Regional Climate center, released xmACIS version 2, a climate data mining tool, for NWS field operations. During this talk we will demonstrate LCAT and xmACIS as well as outline several examples of their application to DSS and its potential use for achieving GFCS goals. The examples include LCAT-based temperature analysis for energy decisions, guidance on weather and water events leading to increased algal blooms and red tide months in advance, local climate sensitivities to droughts, probabilities of hot/cold conditions and their potential impacts on agriculture and fish kills or fish stress.

Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation Plans in California: A Guide and Online Visualization Tool for Planners to Incorporate Risks of Climate Change Impacts in Policy and Decision-Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, W.; Tucker, K.; DeFlorio, J.

2012-12-01

The reality of a changing climate means that transportation and planning agencies need to understand the potential effects of changes in storm activity, sea levels, temperature, and precipitation patterns; and develop strategies to ensure the continuing robustness and resilience of transportation infrastructure and services. This is a relatively new challenge for California's regional planning agencies - adding yet one more consideration to an already complex and multifaceted planning process. In that light, the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans) is developing a strategy framework using a module-based process that planning agencies can undertake to incorporating the risks of climate change impacts into their decision-making and long-range transportation plans. The module-based approach was developed using a best practices survey of existing work nationally, along with a set of structured interviews with metropolitan planning organizations (MPOs) and regional transportation planning agencies (RTPAs) within California. Findings led to the development of a process, as well as a package of foundational geospatial layers (i.e. the Statewide Transportation Asset Geodatabase - STAG), primarily comprising state and Federal transportation assets. These assets are intersected with a set of geospatial layers for the climate stressors of relevance in the state which are placed in the same reference layers as the STAG; thus providing a full set of GIS layers that can be a starting point for MPOs/RTPAs that want to follow the step-by-step module-based approach in its entirety. The fast-paced changes in science and climate change knowledge requires a flexible platform to display continuously evolving information. To this end, the development of the modules are accompanied by a set of geospatial analysis disseminated using an online web portal. In this way, the information can be relayed to MPO/RTPAs in a easy-to-use fashion that can help them follow the modules for the strategy framework. The strategy framework for MPOs and RTPAs is used to: 1) Assess the relative risks to their transportation system infrastructure and services of different climate stressors (sea level rise, temperature changes, snow melt, precipita¬tion changes, flooding, extreme weather events); 2) Conduct an asset inventory and vulnerability assessment of existing infrastructure; 3) Prioritize segments and facilities for adaptation action; 4) Identify appropriate and cost-effective adaptation strategies; and 5) Incorporate climate impact considerations into future long-range transportation planning and investment decisions. This framework complements the broader planning and investment processes that MPOs and RTPAs already manage. It recognizes the varying capacities and resources among MPOs and RTPAs and provide methods that can be used by organizations seeking to conduct in-depth analysis or a more sketch-level assessment.

Profitable Dairy Cow Traits for Hot Climatic Conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Permanent differences in environment have led to the distinct cattle races. Bos indicus cattle evolved in the tropical areas of southern Asia, and are heat-tolerant. The major dairy breeds in the USA are Bos taurus cattle, which evolved in temperate environments, that are less heat tolerant but whic...

Modulation of the erosion rate of an uplifting landscape by long-term climate change: An experimental investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moussirou, Bérangé; Bonnet, Stéphane

2018-02-01

Whether or not climatic variations play a major role in setting the erosion rate of continental landscapes is a key factor in demonstrating the influence of climate on the tectonic evolution of mountain belts and understanding how clastic deposits preserved in sedimentary basins may record climatic variations. Here, we investigate how a change in precipitation influences the erosional dynamics of laboratory-scale landscapes that evolved under a combination of uplift and rainfall forcings. We consider here the impact of a decrease in the precipitation rate of finite duration on the erosive response of a landscape forced by a constant uplift and initially at a steady state (SS1). We performed several experiments with the same amplitude but different durations of precipitation decrease (Tp). We observe that the decrease in precipitation induces a phase of surface uplift of landscapes to a new steady state condition (SS2); however, the details of the uplift histories (timing, rate) differ between the experiments according to Tp. We also observe a decrease in the erosion rate induced by the precipitation change; however, the timing and amplitude of this decrease vary according to Tp, defining a delayed and damped erosion signal. Our data show that the landscape response to precipitation change is dictated by a critical water-to-rock ratio (ratio of precipitation over uplift) that likely corresponds to a geomorphic threshold. Our study suggests that variations in precipitation that occur at a geological time scale (> 106 years) may have a weak impact on the erosion of landscapes and on the delivery of siliciclastic material to large rivers and sedimentary basins.

Droughts and water scarcity: facing challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, Luis S.

2014-05-01

Water scarcity characterizes large portions of the world, particularly the Mediterranean area. It is due to natural causes - climate aridity, which is permanent, and droughts, that are temporary - and to human causes - long term desertification and short term water shortages. Droughts aggravate water scarcity. Knowledge has well developed relative to all processes but management tools still are insufficient as well as the tools required to support appropriate planning and management. Particularly, new approaches on tools for assessing related impacts in agriculture and other economic and social activities are required. Droughts occur in all climates but their characteristics largely differ among regions both in terms frequency, duration and intensity. Research has already produced a large number of tools that allow appropriate monitoring of droughts occurrence and intensity, including dynamics of drought occurrence and time evolution. Advances in drought prediction already are available but we still are far from knowing when a drought will start, how it will evolve and when it dissipates. New developments using teleconnections and GCM are being considered. Climate change is a fact. Are droughts occurrence and severity changing with global change? Opinions are divided about this subject since driving factors and processes are varied and tools for the corresponding analysis are also various. Particularly, weather data series are often too short for obtaining appropriate answers. In a domain where research is producing improved knowledge and innovative approaches, research faces however a variety of challenges. The main ones, dealt in this keynote, refer to concepts and definitions, use of monitoring indices, prediction of drought initiation and evolution, improved assessment of drought impacts, and possible influence of climate change on drought occurrence and severity.

Cool Science Explains a Warming World: Using Ice Core Science to Bridge the Gap Between Researchers and the K-12 Classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, L. T.

2017-12-01

Changing ice has urgent implications for people around the world. The Ice Drilling Program Office (IDPO) provides scientific leadership and oversight of ice coring and drilling activities funded by the US National Science Foundation and also has goals to enhance education and communication of current research information. In a time when misinformation is rampant and climate change science is suspect, it is essential that students receive accurate scientific information and engage in learning activities that model complex ideas through engaging and age appropriate ways, while also learning to validate and recognize reliable sources. The IDPO Education and Outreach (EO) office works to create resources, activities and professional development that bridge the gap between ice core science research and educators and their students. Ice core science is on the cutting edge of new discoveries about climate change and understanding better the past to predict the future. Hands-on inquiry activities based on ice core data allow teachers to lead their students to new discoveries about climate secrets hidden deep in the ice. Capitalizing on the inherent interest in the extremes of the Polar Regions, IDPO materials engage students in activities aligned with NGSS standards. Ice drilling technologies make an ideal platform for intertwining engineering concepts and practices with science research to meet the SEP (Science and Engineering Practices) in the NGSS. This session will highlight how the IDPO EO office has built a community of ice core scientists willing to take part in education and outreach projects and events and share some of the resources available to K-12 educators. We will highlight some of the successes and lessons learned as we continually evolve our work toward more effective science education and communication highlighting ice core and climate change science.

Interdependence of peat and vegetation in a tropical peat swamp forest.

PubMed Central

Page, S E; Rieley, J O; Shotyk, W; Weiss, D

1999-01-01

The visual uniformity of tropical peat swamp forest masks the considerable variation in forest structure that has evolved in response to differences and changes in peat characteristics over many millennia. Details are presented of forest structure and tree composition of the principal peat swamp forest types in the upper catchment of Sungai Sebangau, Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, in relation to thickness and hydrology of the peat. Consideration is given to data on peat geochemistry and age of peat that provide evidence of the ombrotrophic nature of this vast peatland and its mode of formation. The future sustainability of this ecosystem is predicted from information available on climate change and human impact in this region. PMID:11605630

Nursing leadership within the NHS: an evolutionary perspective.

PubMed

Sherring, Simon

Effective leadership is crucial to the delivery of quality NHS care, particularly in the current economic climate. These are unprecedented times for the NHS; at no other time in its life has the need for leadership been greater. It is hard to define nursing leadership, with roles becoming increasingly complex. Although there has been much invested in leadership training, NHS guidance has suggested the service has only just begun to understand the importance of leadership. There is unparalleled change in the NHS; nurses are being asked to be innovators and entrepreneurs. In this article, the author considers what leadership is, and stresses the need for it to continue evolving to meet the changing demands of the NHS.

Collaboration Across the Sciences: How Can We Improve Our Practice and Prepare the Future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grinspoon, D.; Cobabe, E.; Harman, P.; Prather, E. E.

2010-08-01

In the pursuit of scientific knowledge, not only do techniques and instrumentation continually change, the quality of questions being asked also evolves. Age old questions such as "are we alone?" as well as new problems such as global climate change require multi/interdisciplinary perspectives and collaboration, pushing scientists to explore between the specializations. What skills will our students need to function in this emerging paradigm? How should our work as Education and Public Outreach (EPO) practitioners reflect this when so much of the educational landscape is mired in specialized, standardized testing? Are there benefits and tradeoffs in contextualized learning? What are lessons learned so far? Think about it and come share.

No phenotypic plasticity in nest-site selection in response to extreme flooding events.

PubMed

Bailey, Liam D; Ens, Bruno J; Both, Christiaan; Heg, Dik; Oosterbeek, Kees; van de Pol, Martijn

2017-06-19

Phenotypic plasticity is a crucial mechanism for responding to changes in climatic means, yet we know little about its role in responding to extreme climatic events (ECEs). ECEs may lack the reliable cues necessary for phenotypic plasticity to evolve; however, this has not been empirically tested. We investigated whether behavioural plasticity in nest-site selection allows a long-lived shorebird ( Haematopus ostralegus ) to respond to flooding. We collected longitudinal nest elevation data on individuals over two decades, during which time flooding events have become increasingly frequent. We found no evidence that individuals learn from flooding experiences, showing nest elevation change consistent with random nest-site selection. There was also no evidence of phenotypic plasticity in response to potential environmental cues (lunar nodal cycle and water height). A small number of individuals, those nesting near an artificial sea wall, did show an increase in nest elevation over time; however, there is no conclusive evidence this occurred in response to ECEs. Our study population showed no behavioural plasticity in response to changing ECE patterns. More research is needed to determine whether this pattern is consistent across species and types of ECEs. If so, ECEs may pose a major challenge to the resilience of wild populations.This article is part of the themed issue 'Behavioural, ecological and evolutionary responses to extreme climatic events'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Determination of Earth outgoing radiation using a constellation of satellites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gristey, Jake; Chiu, Christine; Gurney, Robert; Han, Shin-Chan; Morcrette, Cyril

2017-04-01

The outgoing radiation fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, referred to as Earth outgoing radiation (EOR), constitute a vital component of the Earth's energy budget. This EOR exhibits strong diurnal signatures and is inherently connected to the rapidly evolving scene from which the radiation originates, so our ability to accurately monitor EOR with sufficient temporal resolution and spatial coverage is crucial for weather and climate studies. Despite vast improvements in satellite observations in recent decades, achieving these criteria remains challenging from current measurements. A technology revolution in small satellites and sensor miniaturisation has created a new and exciting opportunity for a novel, viable and sustainable observation strategy from a constellation of satellites, capable of providing both global coverage and high temporal resolution simultaneously. To explore the potential of a constellation approach for observing EOR we perform a series of theoretical simulation experiments. Using the results from these simulation experiments, we will demonstrate a baseline constellation configuration capable of accurately monitoring global EOR at unprecedented temporal resolution. We will also show whether it is possible to reveal synoptic scale, fast evolving phenomena by applying a deconvolution technique to the simulated measurements. The ability to observe and understand the relationship between these phenomena and changes in EOR is of fundamental importance in constraining future warming of our climate system.

The role of fish in a globally changing food system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lynch, Abigail J.; MacMillan, J. Randy

2017-01-01

Though humans have been fishing for food since they first created tools to hunt, modern food systems are predominately terrestrial focused and fish are frequently overlooked. Yet, within the global food system, fish play an important role in meeting current and future food needs. Capture fisheries are the last large-scale “wild” food, and aquaculture is the fastest growing food production sector in the world. Currently, capture fisheries and aquaculture provide 4.3 billion people with at least 15% of their animal protein. In addition to providing protein and calories, fish are important sources of critical vitamins and vital nutrients that are difficult to acquire through other food sources. As the climate changes, human populations will continue to grow, cultural tastes will evolve, and fish populations will respond. Sustainable fisheries and aquaculture are poised to fill demand for food not met by terrestrial food systems. Climate change and other global changes will increase, decrease, or modify many wild fish populations and aquaculture systems. Understanding the knowledge gaps around these implications for global change on fish production is critical. Applied research and adaptive management techniques can assist with the necessary evolution of sustainable food systems to include a stronger emphasis on fish and other aquatic organisms.

The development and application of landscape evolution models to coupled coast-estuarine environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, Chloe; Coulthard, Tom; Parsons, Daniel R.; Manson, Susan; Barkwith, Andrew

2017-04-01

Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) are proven to be useful tools in understanding the morphodynamics of coast and estuarine systems. However, perhaps owing to the lack of research in this area, current models are not capable of simulating the dynamic interactions between these systems and their co-evolution at the meso-scale. Through a novel coupling of numerical models, this research is designed to explore coupled coastal-estuarine interactions, controls on system behaviour and the influence that environmental change could have. This will contribute to the understanding of the morphodynamics of these systems and how they may behave and evolve over the next century in response to climate changes, with the aim of informing management practices. This goal is being achieved through the modification and coupling of the one-line Coastline Evolution Model (CEM) with the hydrodynamic LEM CAESAR-Lisflood (C-L). The major issues faced with coupling these programs are their differing complexities and the limited graphical visualisations produced by the CEM that hinder the dissemination of results. The work towards overcoming these issues and reported here, include a new version of the CEM that incorporates a range of more complex geomorphological processes and boasts a graphical user interface that guides users through model set-up and projects a live output during model runs. The improved version is a stand-alone tool that can be used for further research projects and for teaching purposes. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method has been completed to identify which key variables, including wave climate, erosion and weathering values, dominate the control of model behaviour. The model is being applied and tested using the evolution of the Holderness Coast, Humber Estuary and Spurn Point on the east coast of England (UK), which possess diverse geomorphologies and complex, co-evolving sediment pathways. Simulations using the modified CEM are currently being completed to ascertain the processes influential to the morphodynamics and evolution of these systems; presently this includes increasing sea levels and changing wave climate patterns. Outputs and findings from these runs will be presented and discussed, with the aid of the improved graphical visualisations and animations that illustrate the evolution of simulated environments.

Quaternary of Himalaya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastava, Pradeep; Singh, Vimal

2017-05-01

Tectonically active Himalayan mountains evolves via feedbacks from deep earth and surface processes; the complex interaction of various processes results into the landscape which is dynamic both at longer and shorter time scales. The extreme hydrological events that possibly ride over a long term climate cycle bring the changes in the landscape that impact human societies more closely. These events in the Himalaya frequently cause huge damage to economy and human lives. The geologist community under the umbrella of Himalaya-Karakorum-Tibet (HKT) workshop in its 30th edition convened a special session and deliberated on the subject. This special issue "Quaternary of Himalaya" is an outcome of papers presented and discussion held during this session; it consists of 18 papers in three sub-themes (i) Extreme Events in Himalaya (ii) Paleoglaciation in Himalaya and (iii) Expressions of climate and neotectonics in Himalaya.

Using Integrated Assessment Models to Estimate the Economic Damages from Temperature Related Human Health Effects in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilmore, E.; Calvin, K. V.; Puett, R.; Sapkota, A.; Schwarber, A.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to increase risks to human health. One pathway that may be particularly difficult to manage is adverse human health impacts (e.g. premature mortality and morbidity) from increases in mean temperatures and changing patterns of temperature extremes. Modeling how these health risks evolve over decadal time-scales is challenging as the severity of the impacts depends on changes in climate as well as socioeconomic conditions. Here, we show estimates of health damages as well as both direct and indirect economic damages that span climate and socioeconomic dimensions for each US state to 2050. We achieve this objective by extending the integrated assessment model (IAM), Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-USA). First, we quantify the change in premature mortality. We identify a range of exposure-response relationships for temperature related mortality through a critical review of the literature. We then implement these relationships in the GCAM by coupling them with projections of future temperature patterns and population estimates. Second, we monetize the effect of these adverse health effects, including both direct and indirect economic costs through labor force participation and productivity along a range of possible economic pathways. Finally, we evaluate how uncertainty in the parameters and assumptions affects the range of possible estimates. We conclude that the model is sensitive to assumptions regarding exposure-response relationship and population growth. The economic damages, however, are driven by the estimates of income and GDP growth as well as the potential for adaptation measures, namely the use and effectiveness of air conditioning.

Future Extreme Event Vulnerability in the Rural Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winter, J.; Bowen, F. L.; Partridge, T.; Chipman, J. W.

2017-12-01

Future climate change impacts on humans will be determined by the convergence of evolving physical climate and socioeconomic systems. Of particular concern is the intersection of extreme events and vulnerable populations. Rural areas of the Northeastern United States have experienced increased temperature and precipitation extremes, especially over the past three decades, and face unique challenges due to their physical isolation, natural resources dependent economies, and high poverty rates. To explore the impacts of future extreme events on vulnerable, rural populations in the Northeast, we project extreme events and vulnerability indicators to identify where changes in extreme events and vulnerable populations coincide. Specifically, we analyze future (2046-2075) maximum annual daily temperature, minimum annual daily temperature, maximum annual daily precipitation, and maximum consecutive dry day length for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 using four global climate models (GCM) and a gridded observational dataset. We then overlay those projections with estimates of county-level population and relative income for 2060 to calculate changes in person-events from historical (1976-2005), with a focus on Northeast counties that have less than 250,000 people and are in the bottom income quartile. We find that across the rural Northeast for RCP4.5, heat person-events per year increase tenfold, far exceeding decreases in cold person-events and relatively small changes in precipitation and drought person-events. Counties in the bottom income quartile have historically (1976-2005) experienced a disproportionate number of heat events, and counties in the bottom two income quartiles are projected to experience a greater heat event increase by 2046-2075 than counties in the top two income quartiles. We further explore the relative contributions of event frequency, population, and income changes to the total and geographic distribution of climate change impacts on rural, vulnerable areas of the Northeast.

Time to Evolve? Potential Evolutionary Responses of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon to Climate Change and Effects on Persistence

PubMed Central

Reed, Thomas E.; Schindler, Daniel E.; Hague, Merran J.; Patterson, David A.; Meir, Eli; Waples, Robin S.; Hinch, Scott G.

2011-01-01

Evolutionary adaptation affects demographic resilience to climate change but few studies have attempted to project changes in selective pressures or quantify impacts of trait responses on population dynamics and extinction risk. We used a novel individual-based model to explore potential evolutionary changes in migration timing and the consequences for population persistence in sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in the Fraser River, Canada, under scenarios of future climate warming. Adult sockeye salmon are highly sensitive to increases in water temperature during their arduous upriver migration, raising concerns about the fate of these ecologically, culturally, and commercially important fish in a warmer future. Our results suggest that evolution of upriver migration timing could allow these salmon to avoid increasingly frequent stressful temperatures, with the odds of population persistence increasing in proportion to the trait heritability and phenotypic variance. With a simulated 2°C increase in average summer river temperatures by 2100, adult migration timing from the ocean to the river advanced by ∼10 days when the heritability was 0.5, while the risk of quasi-extinction was only 17% of that faced by populations with zero evolutionary potential (i.e., heritability fixed at zero). The rates of evolution required to maintain persistence under simulated scenarios of moderate to rapid warming are plausible based on estimated heritabilities and rates of microevolution of timing traits in salmon and related species, although further empirical work is required to assess potential genetic and ecophysiological constraints on phenological adaptation. These results highlight the benefits to salmon management of maintaining evolutionary potential within populations, in addition to conserving key habitats and minimizing additional stressors where possible, as a means to build resilience to ongoing climate change. More generally, they demonstrate the importance and feasibility of considering evolutionary processes, in addition to ecology and demography, when projecting population responses to environmental change. PMID:21738573

Last interglacial temperature seasonality reconstructed from tropical Atlantic corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brocas, William M.; Felis, Thomas; Obert, J. Christina; Gierz, Paul; Lohmann, Gerrit; Scholz, Denis; Kölling, Martin; Scheffers, Sander R.

2016-09-01

Reconstructions of last interglacial (LIG, MIS 5e, ∼127-117 ka) climate offer insights into the natural response and variability of the climate system during a period partially analogous to future climate change scenarios. We present well preserved fossil corals (Diploria strigosa) recovered from the southern Caribbean island of Bonaire (Caribbean Netherlands). These have been precisely dated by the 230Th/U-method to between 130 and 120 ka ago. Annual banding of the coral skeleton enabled construction of time windows of monthly resolved strontium/calcium (Sr/Ca) temperature proxy records. In conjunction with a previously published 118 ka coral record, our eight records of up to 37 years in length, cover a total of 105 years within the LIG period. From these, sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality and variability in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean is reconstructed. We detect similar to modern SST seasonality of ∼2.9 °C during the early (130 ka) and the late LIG (120-118 ka). However, within the mid-LIG, a significantly higher than modern SST seasonality of 4.9 °C (at 126 ka) and 4.1 °C (at 124 ka) is observed. These findings are supported by climate model simulations and are consistent with the evolving amplitude of orbitally induced changes in seasonality of insolation throughout the LIG, irrespective of wider climatic instabilities that characterised this period. The climate model simulations suggest that the SST seasonality changes documented in our LIG coral Sr/Ca records are representative of larger regions within the tropical North Atlantic. These simulations also suggest that the reconstructed SST seasonality increase during the mid-LIG is caused primarily by summer warming. A 124 ka old coral documents, for the first time, evidence of decadal SST variability in the tropical North Atlantic during the LIG, akin to that observed in modern instrumental records.

Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

2014-12-01

Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature of the teleconnection, a novel result that provides context for understanding the climate processes governing the response of moisture variability to future climate change.

Contribution of Crop Models to Adaptation in Wheat.

PubMed

Chenu, Karine; Porter, John Roy; Martre, Pierre; Basso, Bruno; Chapman, Scott Cameron; Ewert, Frank; Bindi, Marco; Asseng, Senthold

2017-06-01

With world population growing quickly, agriculture needs to produce more with fewer inputs while being environmentally friendly. In a context of changing environments, crop models are useful tools to simulate crop yields. Wheat (Triticum spp.) crop models have been evolving since the 1960s to translate processes related to crop growth and development into mathematical equations. These have been used over decades for agronomic purposes, and have more recently incorporated advances in the modeling of environmental footprints, biotic constraints, trait and gene effects, climate change impact, and the upscaling of global change impacts. This review outlines the potential and limitations of modern wheat crop models in assisting agronomists, breeders, and policymakers to address the current and future challenges facing agriculture. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A synthesis of Plio-Pleistocene leaf wax biomarker records of hydrological variation in East Africa and their relationship with hominin evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lupien, R.; Russell, J. M.; Campisano, C. J.; Feibel, C. S.; Deino, A. L.; Kingston, J.; Potts, R.; Cohen, A. S.

2017-12-01

Climate change is thought to play a critical role in human evolution. However, the mechanisms behind this relationship are difficult to test due to a lack of long, high-quality paleoclimate records from hominin fossil locales. We improve the understanding of this relationship by examining Plio-Pleistocene lake sediment cores from East Africa that were drilled by the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project, an international effort to study the environment in which our hominin ancestors evolved and dispersed. We have analyzed organic geochemical signals of climate from drill cores from Ethiopia and Kenya spanning the Pliocene to recent time (from north to south: paleolake Hadar, Lake Turkana, Lake Baringo, and paleolake Koora). Specifically, we analyzed the hydrogen isotopic composition of terrestrial leaf waxes, which records changes in regional atmospheric circulation and hydrology. We reconstructed quantitative records of rainfall amount at each of the study sites, which host sediment spanning different geologic times and regions. By compiling these records, we test hominin evolutionary hypotheses as well as crucial questions about climate trend and variability. We find that there is a gradual or step-wise enrichment in δDwax, signifying a trend from a wet to dry climate, from the Pliocene to the Pleistocene, perhaps implying an influence of global temperature, ice sheet extent, and/or atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on East African climate. However, the shift is small relative to the amplitude of orbital-scale isotopic variations. The records indicate a strong influence of eccentricity-modulated orbital precession, and imply that local insolation effects are the likely cause of East African precipitation. Several of the intervals of high isotopic variability coincide with key hominin fossil or technological transitions, suggesting that climate variability plays a key role in hominin evolution.

Long Term Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition at NOAA - Driving Science with 60 Year-old Records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, J. H.

2017-12-01

NOAA's Global Monitoring Division and its precursor organizations have provided some of the longest real-time records of the trends and distributions of climatically relevant substances in the atmosphere, some going back for 60 years (http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd). The focus of these measurements has been on obtaining reliable records of global trends and distributions of these substances, but the experimental design and use of measurements have advanced over time with evolving scientific questions. Today, and into this century, scientific questions continue to progress and the observing systems that address them will need to progress accordingly. Long-term, ground based observing systems in NOAA's Global Monitoring Division focus largely on three sets of questions, two of which align with WCRP grand challenges. These are Carbon Cycle System Feedbacks, Trends in Surface Radiation and Cloud Distributions, and Recovery of Stratospheric Ozone. The data collected and analyzed help us understand radiative forcing, climate sensitivity, air quality, climate modification, renewable energy options, and arctic processes, and they are useful for verifying model output and satellite retrievals. Regional information will become increasingly important for mitigating and adapting to climate change, and this information must be accurate, precise, and without bias. NOAA, with its long-standing networks and its role in providing calibrations for partnering organizations, is well positioned to provide the linkages necessary to assure that regional measurements are comparable. This presentation will identify major, climate-relevant findings that have come from NOAA's networks in the past and will address the long-term monitoring needs to support decision-making over coming decades as society begins to seriously address climate change.

Simultaneous improvement in productivity, water use, and albedo through crop structural modification.

PubMed

Drewry, Darren T; Kumar, Praveen; Long, Stephen P

2014-06-01

Spanning 15% of the global ice-free terrestrial surface, agricultural lands provide an immense and near-term opportunity to address climate change, food, and water security challenges. Through the computationally informed breeding of canopy structural traits away from those of modern cultivars, we show that solutions exist that increase productivity and water use efficiency, while increasing land-surface reflectivity to offset greenhouse gas warming. Plants have evolved to maximize capture of radiation in the upper leaves, thus shading competitors. While important for survival in the wild, this is suboptimal in monoculture crop fields for maximizing productivity and other biogeophysical services. Crop progenitors evolved over the last 25 million years in an atmosphere with less than half the [CO2] projected for 2050. By altering leaf photosynthetic rates, rising [CO2] and temperature may also alter the optimal canopy form. Here using soybean, the world's most important protein crop, as an example we show by applying optimization routines to a micrometeorological leaf canopy model linked to a steady-state model of photosynthesis, that significant gains in production, water use, and reflectivity are possible with no additional demand on resources. By modifying total canopy leaf area, its vertical profile and angular distribution, and shortwave radiation reflectivity, all traits available in most major crop germplasm collections, increases in productivity (7%) are possible with no change in water use or albedo. Alternatively, improvements in water use (13%) or albedo (34%) can likewise be made with no loss of productivity, under Corn Belt climate conditions. © 2014 California Institute of Technology. Government sponsorship acknowledged.

Integrating human and ecological risk assessment: application to the cyanobacterial harmful algal bloom problem.

PubMed

Orme-Zavaleta, Jennifer; Munns, Wayne R

2008-01-01

Environmental and public health policy continues to evolve in response to new and complex social, economic and environmental drivers. Globalization and centralization of commerce, evolving patterns of land use (e.g., urbanization, deforestation), and technological advances in such areas as manufacturing and development of genetically modified foods have created new and complex classes of stressors and risks (e.g., climate change, emergent and opportunist disease, sprawl, genomic change). In recognition of these changes, environmental risk assessment and its use are changing from stressor-endpoint specific assessments used in command and control types of decisions to an integrated approach for application in community-based decisions. As a result, the process of risk assessment and supporting risk analyses are evolving to characterize the human-environment relationship. Integrating risk paradigms combine the process of risk estimation for humans, biota, and natural resources into one assessment to improve the information used in environmental decisions (Suter et al. 2003b). A benefit to this approach includes a broader, system-wide evaluation that considers the interacting effects of stressors on humans and the environment, as well the interactions between these entities. To improve our understanding of the linkages within complex systems, risk assessors will need to rely on a suite of techniques for conducting rigorous analyses characterizing the exposure and effects relationships between stressors and biological receptors. Many of the analytical techniques routinely employed are narrowly focused and unable to address the complexities of an integrated assessment. In this paper, we describe an approach to integrated risk assessment, and discuss qualitative community modeling and Probabilistic Relational Modeling techniques that address these limitations and evaluate their potential for use in an integrated risk assessment of cyanobacteria.

Climate hazards, adaptation and "resilience" of societies (early Little Ice Age, west of France).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Athimon, Emmanuelle; Maanan, Mohamed

2016-04-01

Over the past ten to fifteen years, climate hazards and adaptation have received more attention due to the current climate change. Climate historians have gathered strong evidence that the world's climate has evolved over the past millennium and one of the most significant changes took place during the Little Ice Age. Recently, a set of questions has emerged: what were the effects of the Little Ice Age on human's societies? How did humans adapt to these climate changes? How did they react to extreme weather-related events? Using examples of climate hazards from the West of France during the beginning of the Little Ice Age (xivth-xviith centuries) such as storms, flooding, drought, harsh winters, the poster aims at showing how the past societies can constitute a source of inspiration for present ones. Through schemas, this research exposes the system's rebound capacity, points out the importance of the historical depth in research on human's adaptation and resilience and shows the value of integrating a historical approach. It reveals that History contributes to the knowledge of the relationship between societies and climate hazards. Data on climate hazards and adaptation of societies stem from historical sources such as chronicles, diaries, books of accounts, records of cities repairs. To protect themselves and their goods, medieval and modern societies had developed specific skills, practices and strategies. From the xivth to the xviiith century, there is an increase of defense by dikes in the low Loire, as for example the construction of those amongst Longué and Ponts-de-Cé between the early xivth century and 1407. The French kingdom's authorities also tried increasingly to provide technical, material, logistical and fiscal support: for instance, during the winter 1564-1565, several bridges have been destroyed by a river flooding in Nantes. The King Charles IX then offered to people of Nantes part of the funds from taxes on the main activities such as the exports of wine or salt to finance the restoration of the bridges. So it appears that these societies have been able to adapt through a collective memory, a lifestyle, a significant perception of risks, a territory management, the construction of infrastructures, etc. Key words : Little Ice Age, West of France, climate hazards, resilience, adaptation. This work was supported by grants from the Fondation de France through the research program « Quels littoraux pour demain? ».

Response of River Discharge to Changing Climate Over the Past Millennium in the Upper Mackenzie Basin: Implications for Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolfe, B. B.; Hall, R. I.; Edwards, T. W.; Jarvis, S. R.; Sinnatamby, R. N.; Yi, Y.; Johnston, J. W.

2009-05-01

Runoff generated from high elevations is the primary source of freshwater for western North America, yet this critical resource is managed on the basis of short instrumental records that encompass an insufficient range of climatic conditions. Like other streams that drain this part of the continent and flow across the northern Great Plains, where seasonal and extended intervals of water deficit are a natural element of the landscape, the Peace and Athabasca rivers provide water that is crucial for societal needs. Climate variability and rapidly increasing industrial development are, however, raising concerns over the future availability of water resources for continued economic growth in these watersheds and to maintain the integrity of aquatic ecosystems, including the Peace-Athabasca Delta (PAD). This is particularly acute for the Athabasca River because the Alberta oil sands industry remains dependent on its water for bitumen extraction. Here we report the effects of climate change over the past 1000 years on river discharge in the upper Mackenzie River system based on paleoenvironmental information from the PAD and Lake Athabasca. The delta landscape responds to hydroclimatic changes with marked variability, capturing systematic changes in ice-jam flood frequency and perched basin water balance. Lake Athabasca level appears to directly monitor overall water availability with the highest levels occurring in concert with maximum glacier extent during the Little Ice Age, and the lowest during the 11th century prior to medieval glacier expansion. Recent climate-driven hydrological change appears to be on a trajectory to even lower levels as high-elevation snow and glacier meltwater contributions both continue to decline. The temporal perspective offered by these paleohydrological reconstructions indicates that climatic changes over the past millennium have led to characteristic responses in the quantity and seasonality of streamflow generated from the hydrographic apex of North America. For water resource managers, a key feature that emerges from these results is that the hydrograph of the 21st century may be evolving towards conditions unprecedented over the past 1000 years, extending beyond the 11th century when reduced glacier meltwater contributions were partly compensated by abundant snowmelt runoff. Continuing reduction in both peak and total discharge clearly underscores the need for stringent allocation of freshwater resources in these watersheds.

Terraforming the Planets and Climate Change Mitigation on Earth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toon, O. B.

2008-12-01

Hopefully, purposeful geo-engineering of the Earth will remain a theoretical concept. Of course, we have already inadvertently changed the Earth, and over geologic history life has left an indelible imprint on our planet. We can learn about geo-engineering schemes by reference to Earth history, for example climate changes after volcanic eruptions provide important clues to using sulfates to modify the climate. The terrestrial planets and Titan offer additional insights. For instance, Mars and Venus both have carbon dioxide dominated greenhouses. Both have more than 10 times as much carbon dioxide in their atmospheres as Earth, and both absorb less sunlight than Earth, yet one is much colder than Earth and one is much hotter. These facts provide important insights into carbon dioxide greenhouses that I will review. Mars cools dramatically following planet wide dust storms, and Titan has what is referred to as an anti- greenhouse climate driven by aerosols. These data can be used to reassure us that we can model aerosol caused changes to the climate of a planet, and also provide examples of aerosols offsetting a gas-driven greenhouse effect. People have long considered whether we might make the other planets habitable. While most of the schemes considered belong in the realm of science fiction, it is possible that some schemes might be practical. Terraforming brings to mind a number of issues that are thought provoking, but not so politically charged as geo-engineering. For example: What criteria define habitability, is it enough for people to live in isolated glass enclosures, or do we need to walk freely on the planet? Different creatures have different needs. Is a planet habitable if plants can thrive in the open, or do animals also need to be free? Are the raw materials present on any planet to make it habitable? If not, can we make the materials, or do we have to import them? Is it ethical to change a planetary climate? What if there are already primitive creatures hidden somewhere, does that change the ethics? Or perhaps, if left alone, the planet would later evolve to have life, is it ethical to alter that path? Many of these questions have parallels to things we need to consider when we talk about geo-engineering Earth. I will touch upon some of these subjects in this talk.

Ontogenetic and life history trait changes associated with convergent ecological specializations in extinct ungulate mammals

PubMed Central

Gomes Rodrigues, Helder; Billet, Guillaume

2017-01-01

Investigating life history traits in mammals is crucial to understand their survival in changing environments. However, these parameters are hard to estimate in a macroevolutionary context. Here we show that the use of dental ontogenetic parameters can provide clues to better understand the adaptive nature of phenotypic traits in extinct species such as South American notoungulates. This recently extinct order of mammals evolved in a context of important geological, climatic, and environmental variations. Interestingly, notoungulates were mostly herbivorous and acquired high-crowned teeth very early in their evolutionary history. We focused on the variations in crown height, dental eruption pattern, and associated body mass of 69 notoungulate taxa, placed in their phylogenetic and geological contexts. We showed that notoungulates evolved higher crowns several times between 45 and 20 Ma, independently of the variation in body mass. Interestingly, the independent acquisitions of ever-growing teeth were systematically accompanied by eruption of molars faster than permanent premolars. These repeated associations of dental innovations have never been documented for other mammals and raise questions on their significance and causal relationships. We suggest that these correlated changes could originate from ontogenetic adjustments favored by structural constraints, and may indicate accelerated life histories. Complementarily, these more durable and efficient dentitions could be selected to cope with important ingestions of abrasive particles in the context of intensified volcanism and increasing aridity. This study demonstrates that assessing both life history and ecological traits allows a better knowledge of the specializations of extinct mammals that evolved under strong environmental constraints. PMID:28096389

Place-based Learning About Climate with Elementary GLOBE

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatheway, B.; Gardiner, L. S.; Harte, T.; Stanitski, D.; Taylor, J.

2017-12-01

Place-based education - helping students make connections between themselves, their community, and their local environment - is an important tool to help young learners understand their regional climate and start to learn about climate and environmental change. Elementary GLOBE storybooks and learning activities allow opportunities for place-based education instructional strategies about climate. In particular, two modules in the Elementary GLOBE unit - Seasons and Climate - provide opportunities for students to explore their local climate and environment. The storybooks and activities also make connections to other parts of elementary curriculum, such as arts, geography, and math. Over the long term, place-based education can also encourage students to be stewards of their local environment. A strong sense of place may help students to see themselves as stakeholders in their community and its resilience. In places that are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate and environmental change and the economic, social, and environmental tradeoffs of community decisions, helping young students developing a sense of place and to see the connection between Earth science, local community, and their lives can have a lasting impact on how a community evolves for decades to come. Elementary GLOBE was designed to help elementary teachers (i.e., grades K-4) integrate Earth system science topics into their curriculum as they teach literacy skills to students. This suite of instructional materials includes seven modules. Each module contains a science-based storybook and learning activities that support the science content addressed in the storybooks. Elementary GLOBE modules feature air quality, climate, clouds, Earth system, seasons, soil, and water. New eBooks allow students to read stories on computers or tablets, with the option of listening to each story with an audio recording. A new Elementary GLOBE Teacher Implementation Guide, published in 2017, provides educators with information and strategies how Elementary GLOBE modules can be effectively applied in classrooms, how Elementary GLOBE modules are aligned with national standards, and how student literacy and science inquiry skills can be strengthened while learning about the Earth system.

Relation between extinction and assisted colonization of plants in the arctic-alpine and boreal regions.

PubMed

Pykälä, Juha

2017-06-01

Assisted colonization of vascular plants is considered by many ecologists an important tool to preserve biodiversity threatened by climate change. I argue that assisted colonization may have negative consequences in arctic-alpine and boreal regions. The observed slow movement of plants toward the north has been an argument for assisted colonization. However, these range shifts may be slow because for many plants microclimatic warming (ignored by advocates of assisted colonization) has been smaller than macroclimatic warming. Arctic-alpine and boreal plants may have limited possibilities to disperse farther north or to higher elevations. I suggest that arctic-alpine species are more likely to be driven to extinction because of competitive exclusion by southern species than by increasing temperatures. If so, the future existence of arctic-alpine and boreal flora may depend on delaying or preventing the migration of plants toward the north to allow northern species to evolve to survive in a warmer climate. In the arctic-alpine region, preventing the dispersal of trees and shrubs may be the most important method to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. The purported conservation benefits of assisted colonization should not be used to promote the migration of invasive species by forestry. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Teaching about Climate Change and Energy with Online Materials and Workshops from On the Cutting Edge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirk, K. B.; Manduca, C. A.; Myers, J. D.; Loxsom, F.

2009-12-01

Global climate change and energy use are among the most relevant and pressing issues in today’s science curriculum, yet they are also complex topics to teach. The underlying science spans multiple disciplines and is quickly evolving. Moreover, a comprehensive treatment of climate change and energy use must also delve into perspectives not typically addressed in geosciences courses, such as public policy and economics. Thus, faculty attempting to address these timely issues face many challenges. To support faculty in teaching these subjects, the On the Cutting Edge faculty development program has created a series of websites and workshop opportunities to provide faculty with information and resources for teaching about climate and energy. A web-based collection of teaching materials was developed in conjunction with the On the Cutting Edge workshops “Teaching about Energy in Geoscience Courses: Current Research and Pedagogy.” The website is designed to provide faculty with examples, references and ideas for either incorporating energy topics into existing geoscience courses or for designing or refining a course about energy. The website contains a collection of over 30 classroom and lab activities contributed by faculty and covering such diverse topics as renewable energy, energy policy and energy conservation. Course descriptions and syllabi for energy courses address audiences ranging from introductory courses to advanced seminars. Other materials available on the website include a collection of visualizations and animations, a catalog of recommended books, presentations and related references from the teaching energy workshops, and ideas for novel approaches or new topics for teaching about energy in the geosciences. The Teaching Climate Change website hosts large collections of teaching materials spanning many different topics within climate change, climatology and meteorology. Classroom activities highlight diverse pedagogic approaches such as role-playing, inquiry-based learning via online data sets, and the use of computer models. The website houses course descriptions and syllabi for both introductory-level and upper-level climate courses contributed by faculty. Collections of climate visualizations and recommended references help faculty navigate to online materials that are best suited for their classroom. The On the Cutting Edge program features a biennial workshop series about teaching climate change, held in conjunction with the American Quaternary Association. Presentations, teaching ideas and references from the 2006 and 2008 workshops are available, along with applications for the upcoming workshop to be held in August 2010. All of these materials can be found at http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/energy and http://serc.carleton.edu/NAGTWorkshops/climatechange. Faculty are encouraged to submit their own teaching materials to the web collections via on-line forms for submitting information and uploading files.

Climate change forecasting in a mountainous data scarce watershed using CMIP5 models under representative concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aghakhani Afshar, A.; Hasanzadeh, Y.; Besalatpour, A. A.; Pourreza-Bilondi, M.

2017-07-01

Hydrology cycle of river basins and available water resources in arid and semi-arid regions are highly affected by climate changes. In recent years, the increment of temperature due to excessive increased emission of greenhouse gases has led to an abnormality in the climate system of the earth. The main objective of this study is to survey the future climate changes in one of the biggest mountainous watersheds in northeast of Iran (i.e., Kashafrood). In this research, by considering the precipitation and temperature as two important climatic parameters in watersheds, 14 models evolved in the general circulation models (GCMs) of the newest generation in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) were used to forecast the future climate changes in the study area. For the historical period of 1992-2005, four evaluation criteria including Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), percent of bias (PBIAS), coefficient of determination ( R 2) and the ratio of the root-mean-square-error to the standard deviation of measured data (RSR) were used to compare the simulated observed data for assessing goodness-of-fit of the models. In the primary results, four climate models namely GFDL-ESM2G, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC-ESM, and NorESM1-M were selected among the abovementioned 14 models due to their more prediction accuracies to the investigated evaluation criteria. Thereafter, climate changes of the future periods (near-century, 2006-2037; mid-century, 2037-2070; and late-century, 2070-2100) were investigated and compared by four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of new emission scenarios of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5. In order to assess the trend of annual and seasonal changes of climatic components, Mann-Kendall non-parametric test (MK) was also employed. The results of Mann-Kendall test revealed that the precipitation has significant variable trends of both positive and negative alterations. Furthermore, the mean, maximum, and minimum temperature values had significant positive trends at 90, 99, and 99.9 % confidence level. On the other hand, in all parts of the Kashafrood Watershed (KW), the average temperature of watershed will be increased up to 0.56-3.3 °C and the mean precipitation will be decreased up to 10.7 % by the end of the twenty-first century comparing to the historical baselines. Also, in seasonal scale, the maximum and minimum precipitations will occur in spring and summer, respectively, and the mean temperature is higher than the historical baseline in all seasons. The maximum and minimum values of the mean temperature will occur in summer and winter, respectively, and the amount of seasonal precipitation in these seasons will be reduced.

Hydropower Licensing as a Bridge between Climate Science and Applications: Creating Actionable Science for Regulatory Decisionmaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Walker, S. H.

2016-12-01

The Integrated Licensing Process (ILP) of the US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) is an example of an existing regulatory process that has the capacity to bridge the gap between science and decision making by clearly delineating existing science, the climate-regulatory nexus, and additional scientific work needed to inform licensing or relicensing of non-federal hydropower projects. In a parallel, but interacting set of legal and regulatory processes, NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) must conduct analyses based on the best available science in order to implement the requirements of the Endangered Species Act (ESA), the Magnuson-Stevens Act, and NEPA, and to develop terms and conditions to protect fisheries for the 30-50 year term of the license and the longer life of the project itself. Therefore, NMFS must understand the combined effects of hydropower projects and climate change to fulfill its own mandates to protect anadromous fish, protected species and habitat. Federal Executive Order (EO) #13693 on climate change sustainability require use of climate risks in planning, also recommended in NOAA's own guidance on implementing ESA, and the Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) guidance on implementing NEPA; however, as an independent agency FERC is not subject to that EO. In the past, FERC has consistently rejected NMFS' climate study requests, stating, among other reasons, that climate science is `too uncertain,' and therefore not actionable. Thus, in order for NMFS to get the information needed for its own decision process, NOAA must first persuade FERC that the science is actionable. This presentation will describe our experiences in a multi-year effort by an interdisciplinary team of climate and fishery scientists to develop acceptable climate study requests that address FERC's concerns about uncertainty, for the Susitna-Watana project on Alaska's Susitna River, the LaGrange Project on the Tuolumne R. in California, and the Hiram Project on the Saco R. in Maine. Furthermore, we document that climate studies are needed to meet FERC's own standard that study methodologies be "generally accepted practice" in the community, i.e., that water infrastructure planning and management has evolved to include use of climate risk assessments as best practices.

Modelling the morphodynamics and co-evolution of coast and estuarine environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, Chloe; Coulthard, Tom; Parsons, Daniel R.; Manson, Susan; Barkwith, Andrew

2017-04-01

The morphodynamics of coast and estuarine environments are known to be sensitive to environmental change and sea-level rise. However, whilst these systems have received considerable individual research attention, how they interact and co-evolve is relatively understudied. These systems are intrinsically linked and it is therefore advantageous to study them holistically in order to build a more comprehensive understanding of their behaviour and to inform sustainable management over the long term. Complex environments such as these are often studied using numerical modelling techniques. Inherent from the limited research in this area, existing models are currently not capable of simulating dynamic coast-estuarine interactions. A new model is being developed through coupling the one-line Coastline Evolution Model (CEM) with CAESAR-Lisflood (C-L), a hydrodynamic Landscape Evolution Model. It is intended that the eventual model be used to advance the understanding of these systems and how they may evolve over the mid to long term in response to climate change. In the UK, the Holderness Coast, Humber Estuary and Spurn Point system offers a diverse and complex case study for this research. Holderness is one of the fastest eroding coastlines in Europe and research suggests that the large volumes of material removed from its cliffs are responsible for the formation of the Spurn Point feature and for the Holocene infilling of the Humber Estuary. Marine, fluvial and coastal processes are continually reshaping this system and over the next century, it is predicted that climate change could lead to increased erosion along the coast and supply of material to the Humber Estuary and Spurn Point. How this manifests will be hugely influential to the future morphology of these systems and the existence of Spurn Point. Progress to date includes a new version of the CEM that has been prepared for integration into C-L and includes an improved graphical user interface and more complex geomorphological processes. Preliminary results from simulations of the Holderness Coast and Spurn Point support findings of other authors, who suggest that changes to the wave climate influences sediment transport patterns in the nearshore zone. The angle of wave approach to the Holderness shows particular significance compared to the height of waves, with an optimum volume of material transported at 42 degrees. Further applications and results of this new model will be presented and discussed.

Life-History Evolution on Tropidurinae Lizards: Influence of Lineage, Body Size and Climate

PubMed Central

Brandt, Renata; Navas, Carlos A.

2011-01-01

The study of life history variation is central to the evolutionary theory. In many ectothermic lineages, including lizards, life history traits are plastic and relate to several sources of variation including body size, which is both a factor and a life history trait likely to modulate reproductive parameters. Larger species within a lineage, for example tend to be more fecund and have larger clutch size, but clutch size may also be influenced by climate, independently of body size. Thus, the study of climatic effects on lizard fecundity is mandatory on the current scenario of global climatic change. We asked how body and clutch size have responded to climate through time in a group of tropical lizards, the Tropidurinae, and how these two variables relate to each other. We used both traditional and phylogenetic comparative methods. Body and clutch size are variable within Tropidurinae, and both traits are influenced by phylogenetic position. Across the lineage, species which evolved larger size produce more eggs and neither trait is influenced by temperature components. A climatic component of precipitation, however, relates to larger female body size, and therefore seems to exert an indirect relationship on clutch size. This effect of precipitation on body size is likely a correlate of primary production. A decrease in fecundity is expected for Tropidurinae species on continental landmasses, which are predicted to undergo a decrease in summer rainfall. PMID:21603641

COREDAR: COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation stRategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amsad Ibrahim Khan, S. K.; Chen, R. S.; de Sherbinin, A. M.; Andimuthu, R.; Kandasamy, P.

2015-12-01

Accelerated sea-level rise (SLR) is a major long term outcome of climate change leading to increased inundation of low-lying areas. Particularly, global cities that are located on or near the coasts are often situated in low lying areas and these locations put global cities at greater risk to SLR. Localized flooding will profoundly impact vulnerable communities located in high-risk urban areas. Building community resilience and adapting to SLR is increasingly a high priority for cities. On the other hand, Article 6 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change addresses the importance of climate change communication and engaging stakeholders in decision making process. Importantly, Community Based Adaptation (CBA) experiences emphasize that it is important to understand a community's unique perceptions of their adaptive capacities to identify useful solutions and that scientific and technical information on anticipated coastal climate impacts needs to be translated into a suitable language and format that allows people to be able to participate in adaptation planning. To address this challenge, this study has put forth three research questions from the lens of urban community engagement in SLR adaptation, (1) What, if any, community engagement in addressing SLR occurring in urban areas; (2) What information do communities need and how does it need to be communicated, in order to be better prepared and have a greater sense of agency? and (3) How can government agencies from city to federal levels facilitate community engagement and action?. To answer these questions this study has evolved a framework "COREDAR" (COmmunicating Risk of sea level rise and Engaging stakeholDers in framing community based Adaptation StRategies) to communicate and transfer complex climate data and information such as projected SLR under different scenarios of IPCC AR5, predicted impact of SLR, prioritizing vulnerability, etc. to concerned stakeholders and local communities, and to engage them in framing actionable urban CBA adaptation strategies to rising sea-level. Thus, this study seeks to provide insights on communicating risk of climate change (SLR) and to develop a robust picture of urban CBA through effective decision making that are grounded in pressing community priorities in a case study approach.

Last interglacial temperature seasonality reconstructed from tropical Atlantic corals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Felis, T.; Brocas, W.; Obert, J. C.; Gierz, P.; Lohmann, G.; Scholz, D.; Kölling, M.; Pfeiffer, M.; Scheffers, S. R.

2016-12-01

Reconstructions of last interglacial ( 127-117 ka) climate offer insights into the natural response and variability of the climate system during a period partially analogous to future climate change scenarios. However, the seasonal temperature changes of the tropical ocean are not well known for the last interglacial period. Here we present well preserved fossil corals (Diploria strigosa) recovered from the southern Caribbean island of Bonaire. These corals have been precisely dated by the 230Th/U-method to between 130 and 118 ka ago. Annual banding of the coral skeleton enabled construction of time windows of monthly resolved Sr/Ca temperature proxy records. Our eight coral records of up to 37 years in length cover a total of 105 years within the last interglacial period. From these coral records, sea surface temperature (SST) seasonality in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean is reconstructed. We detect similar to modern SST seasonality of 2.9 °C during the early (130 ka) and the late last interglacial (120 - 118 ka). However, within the mid-last interglacial, a significantly higher than modern SST seasonality of 4.9 °C (at 126 ka) and 4.1 °C (at 124 ka) is observed. These findings are supported by climate model simulations (COSMOS) and are consistent with the evolving amplitude of orbitally induced changes in seasonality of insolation throughout the last interglacial, irrespective of wider climatic instabilities that characterised this period, e.g. at 118 ka ago. The climate model simulations suggest that the SST seasonality changes documented in our last interglacial coral Sr/Ca records are representative of larger regions within the tropical North Atlantic. These simulations also suggest that the reconstructed SST seasonality increase during the mid-last interglacial is caused primarily by summer warming. Furthermore, a 124 ka old coral documents evidence of decadal SST variability in the tropical North Atlantic during the last interglacial, akin to that observed in modern instrumental records. Our results indicate that the dense theca walls of brain coral skeletons (e.g., Diploria strigosa) can provide robust seasonally resolved proxy records of tropical SST and reliable 230Th/U-ages for the last interglacial period.

Environmental imperatives reconsidered: demographic crises in western North America during the medieval climatic anomaly.

PubMed

Jones, T L; Brown, G M; Raab, L M; McVickar, J L; Spaulding, W G; Kennett, D J; York, A; Wlaker, P L

1999-04-01

Review of late Holocene paleoenvironmental and cultural sequences from four regions of western North America show striking correlations between drought and changes in subsistence, population, exchange, health, and interpersonal violence during the Medieval Climatic Anomaly (A.D. 800-1350). While ultimate causality is difficult to identify in the archaeological record, synchrony of the environmental and cultural changes and the negative character of many human responses--increased interpersonal violence, deterioration of long-distance exchange relationships, and regional abandonments--suggest widespread demographic crises caused by decreased environmental productivity. The medieval droughts occurred at a unique juncture in the demographic history of western North America when unusually large populations of both hunter-gathers and agriculturalists had evolved highly intensified economies that put them in unprecedented ecological jeopardy. Long-term patterns in the archaeological record are inconsistent with the predicted outcomes of simple adaptation or continuous economic intensification, suggesting that in this instance environmental dynamics played a major role in cultural transformations across a wide expanse of western North America among groups with diverse subsistence strategies. These events suggest that environment should not be overlooked as a potential cause of prehistoric culture change.

Evolution of local facilitation in arid ecosystems.

PubMed

Kéfi, Sonia; van Baalen, Minus; Rietkerk, Max; Loreau, Michel

2008-07-01

In harsh environments, sessile organisms can make their habitat more hospitable by buffering environmental stress or increasing resource availability. Although the ecological significance of such local facilitation is widely established, the evolutionary aspects have been seldom investigated. Yet addressing the evolutionary aspects of local facilitation is important because theoretical studies show that systems with such positive interactions can exhibit alternative stable states and that such systems may suddenly become extinct when they evolve (evolutionary suicide). Arid ecosystems currently experience strong changes in climate and human pressures, but little is known about the effects of these changes on the selective pressures exerted on the vegetation. Here, we focus on the evolution of local facilitation in arid ecosystems, using a lattice-structured model explicitly considering local interactions among plants. We found that the evolution of local facilitation depends on the seed dispersal strategy. In systems characterized by short-distance seed dispersal, adaptation to a more stressful environment leads to high local facilitation, allowing the population to escape extinction. In contrast, systems characterized by long-distance seed dispersal become extinct under increased stress even when allowed to adapt. In this case, adaptation in response to climate change and human pressures could give the final push to the desertification of arid ecosystems.

Design and test of an object-oriented GIS to map plant species in the Southern Rockies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morain, Stanley A.; Neville, Paul R. H.; Budge, Thomas K.; Morrison, Susan C.; Helfrich, Donald A.; Fruit, Sarah

1993-01-01

Elevational and latitudinal shifts occur in the flora of the Rocky Mountains due to long term climate change. In order to specify which species are successfully migrating with these changes, and which are not, an object-oriented, image-based geographic information system (GIS) is being created to animate evolving ecological regimes of temperature and precipitation. Research at the Earth Data Analysis Center (EDAC) is developing a landscape model that includes the spatial, spectral and temporal domains. It is designed to visualize migratory changes in the Rocky Mountain flora, and to specify future community compositions. The object-oriented database will eventually tag each of the nearly 6000 species with a unique hue, intensity, and saturation value, so their movements can be individually traced. An associated GIS includes environmental parameters that control the distribution of each species in the landscape, and satellite imagery is used to help visualize the terrain. Polygons for the GIS are delineated as landform facets that are static in ecological time. The model manages these facets as a triangular irregular net (TIN), and their analysis assesses the gradual progression of species as they migrate through the TIN. Using an appropriate climate change model, the goal will be to stop the modeling process to assess both the rate and direction of species' change and to specify the changing community composition of each landscape facet.

Mapping Climate Science Information Needs and Networks in the Northwest, USA through Evaluating the Northwest Climate Science Center Climate Science Digest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gergel, D. R.; Watts, L. H.; Salathe, E. P.; Mankowski, J. D.

2017-12-01

Climate science, already a highly interdisciplinary field, is rapidly evolving, and natural resource managers are increasingly involved in policymaking and adaptation decisions to address climate change that need to be informed by state-of-the-art climate science. Consequently, there is a strong demand for unique organizations that engender collaboration and cooperation between government, non-profit, academic and for-profit sectors that are addressing issues relating to natural resources management and climate adaptation and resilience. These organizations are often referred to as boundary organizations. The Northwest Climate Science Center (NW CSC) and the North Pacific Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NP LCC) are two such boundary organizations operating in different contexts. Together, the NW CSC and the NP LCC fulfill the need for sites of co-production between researchers and managers working on climate-related issues, and a key component of this work is a monthly climate science newsletter that includes recent climate science journal articles, reports, and climate-related events. Our study evaluates the effectiveness of the climate science digest (CSD) through a three-pronged approach: a) in-depth interviews with natural resource managers who use the CSD, b) poll questions distributed to CSD subscribers, and c) quantitative analysis of CSD effectiveness using analytics from MailChimp distribution. We aim to a) map the reach of the CSD across the Northwest and at a national level; b) understand the efficacy of the CSD at communicating climate science to diverse audiences; c) evaluate the usefulness of CSD content for diverse constituencies of subscribers; d) glean transferrable knowledge for future evaluations of boundary management tools; and e) establish a protocol for designing climate science newsletters for other agencies disseminating climate science information. We will present results from all three steps of our evaluation process and describe their implications for future evaluations of climate science communications products and other boundary management tools in the field of natural resources management.

Ecological, Evolutionary and Social Constraints on Reproductive Effort: Are Hoary Marmots Really Biennial Breeders?

PubMed Central

Patil, Vijay P.; Karels, Timothy J.; Hik, David S.

2015-01-01

Biennial breeding is a rare life-history trait observed in animal species living in harsh, unproductive environments. This reproductive pattern is thought to occur in 10 of 14 species in the genus Marmota, making marmots useful model organisms for studying its ecological and evolutionary implications. Biennial breeding in marmots has been described as an obligate pattern which evolved as a mechanism to mitigate the energetic costs of reproduction (Evolved Constraint hypothesis). However, recent anecdotal evidence suggests that it is a facultative pattern controlled by annual variation in climate and food availability (Environmental Constraint hypothesis). Finally, in social animals like marmots, biennial breeding could result from reproductive competition between females within social groups (Social Constraint hypothesis). We evaluated these three hypotheses using mark-recapture data from an 8-year study of hoary marmot (Marmota caligata) population dynamics in the Yukon. Annual variation in breeding probability was modeled using multi-state mark-recapture models, while other reproductive life-history traits were modeled with generalized linear mixed models. Hoary marmots were neither obligate nor facultative biennial breeders, and breeding probability was insensitive to evolved, environmental, or social factors. However, newly mature females were significantly less likely to breed than older individuals. Annual breeding did not result in increased mortality. Female survival and, to a lesser extent, average fecundity were correlated with winter climate, as indexed by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Hoary marmots are less conservative breeders than previously believed, and the evidence for biennial breeding throughout Marmota, and in other arctic/alpine/antarctic animals, should be re-examined. Prediction of future population dynamics requires an accurate understanding of life history strategies, and of how life history traits allow animals to cope with changes in weather and other demographic influences. PMID:25768300

Fire responses to postglacial climate change and human impact in northern Patagonia (41–43°S)

PubMed Central

Iglesias, Virginia; Whitlock, Cathy

2014-01-01

Forest/steppe boundaries are among the most dynamic ecosystems on Earth and are highly vulnerable to changes in climate and land use. In this study we examine the postglacial history of the Patagonian forest/steppe ecotone (41–43°S) to better understand its sensitivity to past variations in climate, disturbance, and human activity before European colonization. We present regional trends in vegetation and biomass burning, as detected by generalized additive models fitted to seven pollen and charcoal records, and compare the results with other paleoenvironmental data, as well as archeological and ecological information to (i) estimate postglacial fire trends at regional scales, (ii) assess the evolution of climate–vegetation–fire linkages over the last 18,000 calibrated (cal) years B.P., and (iii) evaluate the role of humans in altering pre-European landscapes and fire regimes. Pollen and charcoal data indicate that biomass burning was relatively low during warm/dry steppe-dominated landscapes in the late glacial/Early Holocene transition and increased as more humid conditions favored forest development after ca. 10,000 cal years B.P. Postglacial fire activity was thus limited by fuel availability associated with sparse vegetation cover rather than by suitable climate conditions. In contrast to extensive burning by European settlers, variations in indigenous population densities were not associated with fluctuations in regional or watershed-scale fire occurrence, suggesting that climate–vegetation–fire linkages in northern Patagonia evolved with minimal or very localized human influences before European settlement. PMID:25489077

Is rapid evolution of reproductive traits in Adonis annua consistent with pollinator decline?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomann, M.; Imbert, E.; Cheptou, P.-O.

2015-11-01

Growing human footprint on the environment rapidly modifies the living conditions of natural populations. This could lead to phenotypic changes through both plasticity and evolution. Therefore, distinguishing the role of evolution in the phenotypic response to global change is a major challenge. In this study, we benefited from past and recent seeds from a population of the annual self-compatible weed Adonis annua. Seeds were sampled from the same locality at an 18 years interval and close to a region where reduction of bee pollinators' density has been reported. We used a common garden experiment to investigate evolutionary changes, between the old (1992) and the recent (2010) sample, for some reproductive traits expected to be under selection in the context of climate warming and pollinator decline. Plants of the recent sample flowered earlier, had larger flowers, but also evolved a shorter floral longevity. The capacity of plants to reproduce autonomously (autonomous selfing) was similar in the two samples. These results are consistent with adaptation of flowering phenology to climate warming and in part consistent with the evolution of increased pollinator attraction under pollinator decline. Together with other recent studies, this study provides evidence that short-term evolution is a frequent phenomenon accompanying global change.

Continent-Wide Climatic Variation Drives Local Adaptation in North American White Clover.

PubMed

Wright, Sara J; Cui Zhou, Daniel; Kuhle, Amy; Olsen, Kenneth M

2017-12-21

Climate-associated clines in adaptive polymorphisms are commonly cited as evidence of local adaptation within species. However, the contribution of the clinally varying trait to overall fitness is often unknown. To address this question, we examined survival, vegetative growth, and reproductive output in a central US common garden experiment using 161 genotypes of white clover (Trifolium repens L.) originating from 15 locations across North America. White clover is polymorphic for cyanogenesis (hydrogen cyanide release upon tissue damage), a chemical defense against generalist herbivores, and climate-associated cyanogenesis clines have repeatedly evolved across the species range. Over a 12-month experiment, we observed striking correlations between the population of origin and plant performance in the common garden, with climatic distance from the common garden site predicting fitness more accurately than geographic distance. Assessments of herbivore leaf damage over the 2015 growing season indicated marginally lower herbivory on cyanogenic plants; however, this effect did not result in increased fitness in the common garden location. Linear mixed modeling suggested that while cyanogenesis variation had little predictive value for vegetative growth, it is as important as climatic variation for predicting reproductive output in the central United States. Together, our findings suggest that knowledge of climate similarity, as well as knowledge of locally favored adaptive traits, will help to inform transplantation strategies for restoration ecology and other conservation efforts in the face of climate change. © The American Genetic Association 2017. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Synchronous Motions Across the Instrumental Climate Record

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carl, Peter

The Earth's climate system bears a rich variety of feedback mechanisms that may give rise to complex, evolving modal structures under internal and external control. Various types of synchronization may be identified in the system's motion when looking at representative time series of the instrumental period through the glasses of an advanced technique of sparse data approximation, the Matching Pursuit (MP) approach. To disentangle the emerging network of oscillatory modes to the degree that climate dynamics turns out to be separable, a large dictionary of "Gaussian logons," i.e. frequency modulated (FM) Gabor atoms, is applied. Though the extracted modes make up linear decompositions, this flexible analyzing signal matches highly nonlinear waveforms. Univariate analyses over the period 1870-1997 are presented of a set of customary time series in annual resolution, comprising global and regional climate, central European synoptic systems, German precipitation, and runoff of the Elbe river near Dresden. All the evidence from this first-generation MP-FM study, obtained in subsequent multivariate syntheses, points to dynamically excited regimes of an organized yet complex climate system under permanent change—perhaps a (pre)chaotic one at centennial timescales, suggesting a "chaos control" perspective on global climate dynamics and change. Findings and conclusions include, among others, internal structure of reconstructed insolation, the episodic nature of global warming as reflected in multidecadal temperature modes, their swarm of "interdomain" companions across the whole system that unveils an unknown regime character of interannual climate dynamics, and the apparent onset early in the 1990s of the present thermal stagnation.

Investigating the pace of temperature change and its implications over the twenty-first century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chavaillaz, Y.; Joussaume, S.; Braconnot, P.; Vautard, R.

2015-12-01

In most studies, climate change is approached by focusing on the evolution between a fixed current baseline and the future, emphasizing stronger warming as we move further from the current climate. Under climate conditions that are continuously evolving, human systems might have to constantly adapt to a changing target. We propose here an alternative approach, and consider indicators of the pace of temperature change and its effects on temperature distributions estimated from projections of an ensemble of 18 General Circulation Models. The pace is represented by a rate defined by the difference between two subsequent 20-year periods. Under the strongest emission pathway (RCP 8.5), the warming rate strongly increases over the twenty-first century, with a maximum reached before 2080. Whilst northern high-latitudes witness the highest temperature rise, all other latitudes highlight at least a doubling in the warming rate compared to the current period. The spatial extent of significant shifts in annual temperature distributions between two subsequent 20-year periods is projected to be at least four times larger than in the current period. They are mainly located in tropical areas, such as West Africa and South-East Asia. The fraction of the world population exposed to these shifts grows from 8% to 60% from around 2060 onwards, i.e. reaching 6 billions people. In contrast, low mitigation measures (RCP 6.0) are sufficient to keep the warming rate similar to current values. Under the medium mitigation pathway (RCP 4.5), population exposure to significant shifts drops to negligible values by the end of the century. Strong mitigation measures (RCP 2.6) are the only option that generates a global return to historical conditions regarding our indicators. Considering the pace of change can bring an alternative way to interact with climate impacts and adaptation communities.

Understanding the biological underpinnings of ecohydrological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huxman, T. E.; Scott, R. L.; Barron-Gafford, G. A.; Hamerlynck, E. P.; Jenerette, D.; Tissue, D. T.; Breshears, D. D.; Saleska, S. R.

2012-12-01

Climate change presents a challenge for predicting ecosystem response, as multiple factors drive both the physical and life processes happening on the land surface and their interactions result in a complex, evolving coupled system. For example, changes in surface temperature and precipitation influence near-surface hydrology through impacts on system energy balance, affecting a range of physical processes. These changes in the salient features of the environment affect biological processes and elicit responses along the hierarchy of life (biochemistry to community composition). Many of these structural or process changes can alter patterns of soil water-use and influence land surface characteristics that affect local climate. Of the many features that affect our ability to predict the future dynamics of ecosystems, it is this hierarchical response of life that creates substantial complexity. Advances in the ability to predict or understand aspects of demography help describe thresholds in coupled ecohydrological system. Disentangling the physical and biological features that underlie land surface dynamics following disturbance are allowing a better understanding of the partitioning of water in the time-course of recovery. Better predicting the timing of phenology and key seasonal events allow for a more accurate description of the full functional response of the land surface to climate. In addition, explicitly considering the hierarchical structural features of life are helping to describe complex time-dependent behavior in ecosystems. However, despite this progress, we have yet to build an ability to fully account for the generalization of the main features of living systems into models that can describe ecohydrological processes, especially acclimation, assembly and adaptation. This is unfortunate, given that many key ecosystem services are functions of these coupled co-evolutionary processes. To date, both the lack of controlled measurements and experimentation has precluded determination of sufficient theoretical development. Understanding the land-surface response and feedback to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of the coupling of ecological and hydrological processes and an expansion of theory from the life sciences to appropriately contribute to the broader Earth system science goal.

A model species for agricultural pest genomics: the genome of the Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

DOE PAGES

Schoville, Sean D.; Chen, Yolanda H.; Andersson, Martin N.; ...

2018-01-31

The Colorado potato beetle is one of the most challenging agricultural pests to manage. It has shown a spectacular ability to adapt to a variety of solanaceaeous plants and variable climates during its global invasion, and, notably, to rapidly evolve insecticide resistance. To examine evidence of rapid evolutionary change, and to understand the genetic basis of herbivory and insecticide resistance, we tested for structural and functional genomic changes relative to other arthropod species using genome sequencing, transcriptomics, and community annotation. Two factors that might facilitate rapid evolutionary change include transposable elements, which comprise at least 17% of the genome andmore » are rapidly evolving compared to other Coleoptera, and high levels of nucleotide diversity in rapidly growing pest populations. Adaptations to plant feeding are evident in gene expansions and differential expression of digestive enzymes in gut tissues, as well as expansions of gustatory receptors for bitter tasting. Surprisingly, the suite of genes involved in insecticide resistance is similar to other beetles. Finally, duplications in the RNAi pathway might explain why Leptinotarsa decemlineata has high sensitivity to dsRNA. In conclusion, the L. decemlineata genome provides opportunities to investigate a broad range of phenotypes and to develop sustainable methods to control this widely successful pest.« less

A model species for agricultural pest genomics: the genome of the Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schoville, Sean D.; Chen, Yolanda H.; Andersson, Martin N.

The Colorado potato beetle is one of the most challenging agricultural pests to manage. It has shown a spectacular ability to adapt to a variety of solanaceaeous plants and variable climates during its global invasion, and, notably, to rapidly evolve insecticide resistance. To examine evidence of rapid evolutionary change, and to understand the genetic basis of herbivory and insecticide resistance, we tested for structural and functional genomic changes relative to other arthropod species using genome sequencing, transcriptomics, and community annotation. Two factors that might facilitate rapid evolutionary change include transposable elements, which comprise at least 17% of the genome andmore » are rapidly evolving compared to other Coleoptera, and high levels of nucleotide diversity in rapidly growing pest populations. Adaptations to plant feeding are evident in gene expansions and differential expression of digestive enzymes in gut tissues, as well as expansions of gustatory receptors for bitter tasting. Surprisingly, the suite of genes involved in insecticide resistance is similar to other beetles. Finally, duplications in the RNAi pathway might explain why Leptinotarsa decemlineata has high sensitivity to dsRNA. In conclusion, the L. decemlineata genome provides opportunities to investigate a broad range of phenotypes and to develop sustainable methods to control this widely successful pest.« less

A model species for agricultural pest genomics: the genome of the Colorado potato beetle, Leptinotarsa decemlineata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae).

PubMed

Schoville, Sean D; Chen, Yolanda H; Andersson, Martin N; Benoit, Joshua B; Bhandari, Anita; Bowsher, Julia H; Brevik, Kristian; Cappelle, Kaat; Chen, Mei-Ju M; Childers, Anna K; Childers, Christopher; Christiaens, Olivier; Clements, Justin; Didion, Elise M; Elpidina, Elena N; Engsontia, Patamarerk; Friedrich, Markus; García-Robles, Inmaculada; Gibbs, Richard A; Goswami, Chandan; Grapputo, Alessandro; Gruden, Kristina; Grynberg, Marcin; Henrissat, Bernard; Jennings, Emily C; Jones, Jeffery W; Kalsi, Megha; Khan, Sher A; Kumar, Abhishek; Li, Fei; Lombard, Vincent; Ma, Xingzhou; Martynov, Alexander; Miller, Nicholas J; Mitchell, Robert F; Munoz-Torres, Monica; Muszewska, Anna; Oppert, Brenda; Palli, Subba Reddy; Panfilio, Kristen A; Pauchet, Yannick; Perkin, Lindsey C; Petek, Marko; Poelchau, Monica F; Record, Éric; Rinehart, Joseph P; Robertson, Hugh M; Rosendale, Andrew J; Ruiz-Arroyo, Victor M; Smagghe, Guy; Szendrei, Zsofia; Thomas, Gregg W C; Torson, Alex S; Vargas Jentzsch, Iris M; Weirauch, Matthew T; Yates, Ashley D; Yocum, George D; Yoon, June-Sun; Richards, Stephen

2018-01-31

The Colorado potato beetle is one of the most challenging agricultural pests to manage. It has shown a spectacular ability to adapt to a variety of solanaceaeous plants and variable climates during its global invasion, and, notably, to rapidly evolve insecticide resistance. To examine evidence of rapid evolutionary change, and to understand the genetic basis of herbivory and insecticide resistance, we tested for structural and functional genomic changes relative to other arthropod species using genome sequencing, transcriptomics, and community annotation. Two factors that might facilitate rapid evolutionary change include transposable elements, which comprise at least 17% of the genome and are rapidly evolving compared to other Coleoptera, and high levels of nucleotide diversity in rapidly growing pest populations. Adaptations to plant feeding are evident in gene expansions and differential expression of digestive enzymes in gut tissues, as well as expansions of gustatory receptors for bitter tasting. Surprisingly, the suite of genes involved in insecticide resistance is similar to other beetles. Finally, duplications in the RNAi pathway might explain why Leptinotarsa decemlineata has high sensitivity to dsRNA. The L. decemlineata genome provides opportunities to investigate a broad range of phenotypes and to develop sustainable methods to control this widely successful pest.

Mars: History of Climate Change and Evolution of the Water Cycle (Runcorn-Florensky Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Head, James W.

2010-05-01

Atmospheric general circulation models are becoming more and more sophisticated and can now be analyzed at various scales, and include variations in atmospheric water vapor content, orbital parameters and surface properties. A wide variety of geological evidence indicates that the climate on Mars has changed during its past history. We are now approaching the time when synergism is developing between studies of the observed geological record and predictions and results of climate models. Geological evidence for climate change ranges in physical scale from layering in the polar caps and sediments, to meters-thick ice-rich layers extending from high to mid-latitudes, to kilometers-thick polar and circumpolar deposits. Clear temporal changes in the mineralogy and alteration style of surface and subsurface materials signal long-term climate change. Evidence is found throughout the geologic record of Mars, ranging from interpreted Amazonian tropical mountain glaciers to much longer term trends implied by the temporal distribution of geological features such as valley networks and outflow channels. Furthermore, there is strong evidence for changes in the hydrological cycle of Mars that reflect long-term climate change. For the last ~80% of its history (the Hesperian and Amazonian) Mars appears to have been a very cold, hyper-arid polar desert, similar to the McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica. During this time, the hydrologic system on Mars has been horizontally layered, with the near-surface hydrologic cycle involving water movement between the atmosphere, polar caps, the surface and regolith at various latitudes; variations in spin-axis orbital parameters caused significant surface redistribution of ice and dust, and abundant ice has been sequestered beneath glacial debris-cover in the mid-latitudes for several hundred million years. Existing groundwater is sequestered below a globally continuous cryosphere; liquid water occasionally emerged to the surface during magmatic events that cracked or melted the cryosphere, forming outlet channels. In contrast, many believe that Mars was "warm and wet" during the first 20% of its history (the Noachian); in this scenario, there was no global cryosphere, and the hydrological cycle was vertically integrated. Geological evidence for this includes extensive valley network systems, hundreds of closed-basin and open-basin lakes, depositional fans and deltas, and integrated systems that extend for thousands of kilometers across the surface. Major outstanding questions include the causes and the duration of these more clement conditions in the Noachian, whether they led to the formation and evolution of life, why they changed in the late Noachian-Hesperian, the duration of the change, how the climate stabilized to its current state, whether any early-evolving life could survive this transition, and if so, where such life might reside today. The questions raised by the long-term climate history of Mars provide a compelling framework for future robotic and human exploration.

Disentangling the impacts of climate and human colonization on the flora and fauna of the Australian arid zone over the past 100 ka using stable isotopes in avian eggshell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Gifford H.; Fogel, Marilyn L.; Magee, John W.; Gagan, Michael K.

2016-11-01

Throughout the Quaternary, the flora and fauna of Australia evolved and adapted to the high-amplitude, low- and high-frequency climate changes that characterized the ice-age cycles. However, during the last glacial cycle, between ∼120 and 15 ka, unprecedented irreversible changes in flora and fauna occurred, and in that same interval modern humans established their first firm presence in the landscape. Disentangling the impacts of the first-order trend toward a colder, drier planet through the Late Quaternary from the impacts of human colonization has been challenging, from both the chronological and paleoenvironmental perspectives. We utilize the stable isotopes of carbon and oxygen preserved in near-continuous time series of Dromaius (emu) eggshell from five regions across Australia to provide independent reconstructions of ecosystem status and climate over the past 100 ka. Carbon isotopes are determined by the diet consumed by the female bird, whereas oxygen isotopes record the status of local moisture balance in the months prior to breeding. Together, δ13C and δ18O provide ecosystem status and climate from the same dated sample, reducing correlation uncertainties between proxies. Combined with recent improvements in the chronologies of Late Quaternary shorelines fringing inland lake basins and deflation during arid times, these data collectively reaffirm that Australia generally became increasingly, albeit irregularly, drier from the last interglaciation through to the last glacial maximum. Dromaius eggshell δ18O documents peak aridity between 30 and 15 ka, but shows no evidence of exceptional climate change between 60 and 40 ka. In contrast, Dromaius δ13Cdiet documents an irreversible loss of the majority of palatable summer-rainfall-related C4 grasses across the Australian arid zone between 50 and 45 ka, about the same time that the giant megafaunal bird, Genyornis, became extinct, and coincident with human dispersal across the continent. Our data indicate that changes unique to Australia occurred between 50 and 45 ka that led to a new climate-vegetation relationship and an overall reduction in effective moisture across much of the continent. The large summer-rainfall-dominated lakes of interior Australia failed to re-fill subsequently, despite a wide range of global climate states. A full explanation for the mechanisms behind these changes remains elusive, but they are almost certainly related to human agency. Plausible explanations include a change in fire regime resulting from human-lit fires, a change in fire regime following extinction of megafaunal browsers, and/or a threshold response to increasing aridity. Of these, the climate change explanation is least likely, given the lack of evidence for unprecedented aridity between 60 and 40 ka, and the successful adaptation of Australian ecosystems to 2.5 Ma of similar changes.

The Evolution of Pediatric Disease—A Moving Target in Public Health

PubMed Central

Brown, Mark A.

2017-01-01

There is a growing threat in the re-emergence of diseases that impact pediatric demographics. While major strides have been made in the field of childhood cancers, there are still more questions than answers. In addition, public resistance to recommended practices related to childhood vaccinations fueled by misinformation has allowed infectious diseases to resurface in developed nations. Meanwhile, climate change and other destabilizing factors are shifting vector populations and driving the emergence of new diseases. Herein we call upon the community of human health researchers to confront the evolving specter of pediatric disease. PMID:28933371

The Essential Role for Laboratory Studies in Atmospheric Chemistry.

PubMed

Burkholder, James B; Abbatt, Jonathan P D; Barnes, Ian; Roberts, James M; Melamed, Megan L; Ammann, Markus; Bertram, Allan K; Cappa, Christopher D; Carlton, Annmarie G; Carpenter, Lucy J; Crowley, John N; Dubowski, Yael; George, Christian; Heard, Dwayne E; Herrmann, Hartmut; Keutsch, Frank N; Kroll, Jesse H; McNeill, V Faye; Ng, Nga Lee; Nizkorodov, Sergey A; Orlando, John J; Percival, Carl J; Picquet-Varrault, Bénédicte; Rudich, Yinon; Seakins, Paul W; Surratt, Jason D; Tanimoto, Hiroshi; Thornton, Joel A; Tong, Zhu; Tyndall, Geoffrey S; Wahner, Andreas; Weschler, Charles J; Wilson, Kevin R; Ziemann, Paul J

2017-03-07

Laboratory studies of atmospheric chemistry characterize the nature of atmospherically relevant processes down to the molecular level, providing fundamental information used to assess how human activities drive environmental phenomena such as climate change, urban air pollution, ecosystem health, indoor air quality, and stratospheric ozone depletion. Laboratory studies have a central role in addressing the incomplete fundamental knowledge of atmospheric chemistry. This article highlights the evolving science needs for this community and emphasizes how our knowledge is far from complete, hindering our ability to predict the future state of our atmosphere and to respond to emerging global environmental change issues. Laboratory studies provide rich opportunities to expand our understanding of the atmosphere via collaborative research with the modeling and field measurement communities, and with neighboring disciplines.

Pneumonia in the tropics.

PubMed

Lim, Tow Keang; Siow, Wen Ting

2018-01-01

Pneumonia in the tropics poses a heavy disease burden. The complex interplay of climate change, human migration influences and socio-economic factors lead to changing patterns of respiratory infections in tropical climate but also increasingly in temperate countries. Tropical and poorer countries, especially South East Asia, also bear the brunt of the global tuberculosis (TB) pandemic, accounting for almost one-third of the burden. But, as human migration patterns evolve, we expect to see more TB cases in higher income as well as temperate countries, and rise in infections like scrub typhus from ecotourism activities. Fuelled by the ease of air travel, novel zoonotic infections originating from the tropics have led to global respiratory pandemics. As such, clinicians worldwide should be aware of these new conditions as well as classical tropical bacterial pneumonias such as melioidosis. Rarer entities such as co-infections of leptospirosis and chikungunya or dengue will need careful consideration as well. In this review, we highlight aetiologies of pneumonia seen more commonly in the tropics compared with temperate regions, their disease burden, variable clinical presentations as well as impact on healthcare delivery. © 2017 Asian Pacific Society of Respirology.

Evolution of strategic risks under future scenarios for improved utility master plans.

PubMed

Luís, Ana; Lickorish, Fiona; Pollard, Simon

2016-01-01

Integrated, long-term risk management in the water sector is poorly developed. Whilst scenario planning has been applied to singular issues (e.g. climate change), it often misses a link to risk management because the likelihood of impacts in the long-term are frequently unaccounted for in these analyses. Here we apply the morphological approach to scenario development for a case study utility, Empresa Portuguesa das Águas Livres (EPAL). A baseline portfolio of strategic risks threatening the achievement of EPAL's corporate objectives was evolved through the lens of three future scenarios, 'water scarcity', 'financial resource scarcity' and 'strong economic growth', built on drivers such as climate, demographic, economic, regulatory and technological changes and validated through a set of expert workshops. The results represent how the baseline set of risks might develop over a 30 year period, allowing threats and opportunities to be identified and enabling strategies for master plans to be devised. We believe this to be the first combined use of risk and futures methods applied to a portfolio of strategic risks in the water utility sector. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Man made deltas?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maselli, V.; Trincardi, F.

2014-12-01

During the last few millennia, southern European fluvio-deltaic systems have evolved in response to changes in the hydrological cycle, mostly driven by high-frequency climate oscillations and increasing anthropic pressure on natural landscapes. The review of geochronological and historical data documents that the bulk of the four largest northern Mediterranean and Black Sea deltas (Ebro, Rhone, Po and Danube) formed during two short and synchronous intervals during which anthropogenic land cover change was the main driver for enhanced sediment production. These two major growth phases occurred under contrasting climatic regimes and were both followed by generalized delta retreat, supporting the hypothesis of human-driven delta progradation. Delta retreat, in particular, was the consequence of reduced soil erosion for renewed afforestation after the fall of the Roman Empire, and of river dams construction that overkilled the still increasing sediment production in catchment basins since the Industrial Era. In this second case, in particular, the effect of a reduced sediment flux to the coasts is amplified by the sinking of modern deltas, due to land subsidence and sea level rise, that hampers delta outbuilding and increases the vulnerability of coastal zone to marine erosion and flooding.

Paleoproterozoic snowball earth: extreme climatic and geochemical global change and its biological consequences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirschvink, J. L.; Gaidos, E. J.; Bertani, L. E.; Beukes, N. J.; Gutzmer, J.; Maepa, L. N.; Steinberger, R. E.

2000-01-01

Geological, geophysical, and geochemical data support a theory that Earth experienced several intervals of intense, global glaciation ("snowball Earth" conditions) during Precambrian time. This snowball model predicts that postglacial, greenhouse-induced warming would lead to the deposition of banded iron formations and cap carbonates. Although global glaciation would have drastically curtailed biological productivity, melting of the oceanic ice would also have induced a cyanobacterial bloom, leading to an oxygen spike in the euphotic zone and to the oxidative precipitation of iron and manganese. A Paleoproterozoic snowball Earth at 2.4 Giga-annum before present (Ga) immediately precedes the Kalahari Manganese Field in southern Africa, suggesting that this rapid and massive change in global climate was responsible for its deposition. As large quantities of O(2) are needed to precipitate this Mn, photosystem II and oxygen radical protection mechanisms must have evolved before 2.4 Ga. This geochemical event may have triggered a compensatory evolutionary branching in the Fe/Mn superoxide dismutase enzyme, providing a Paleoproterozoic calibration point for studies of molecular evolution.

Assessing Potential Implications of Climate Change for Long-Term Water Resources Planning in the Colorado River Basin, Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munevar, A.; Butler, S.; Anderson, R.; Rippole, J.

2008-12-01

While much of the focus on climate change impacts to water resources in the western United States has been related to snow-dominated watersheds, lower elevation basins such as the Colorado River Basin in Texas are dependent on rainfall as the predominant form of precipitation and source of supply. Water management in these basins has evolved to adapt to extreme climatic and hydrologic variability, but the impact of climate change is potentially more acute due to rapid runoff response and subsequent greater soil moisture depletion during the dry seasons. The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) - San Antonio Water System (SAWS) Water Project is being studied to conserve water, develop conjunctive groundwater supplies, and capture excess and unused river flows to meet future water needs for two neighboring regions in Texas. Agricultural and other rural water needs would be met on a more reliable basis in the lower Colorado River Basin through water conservation, surface water development and limited groundwater production. Surface water would be transferred to the San Antonio area to meet municipal needs in quantities still being evaluated. Detailed studies are addressing environmental, agricultural, socioeconomic, and engineering aspects of the project. Key planning activities include evaluating instream flow criteria, water quality, bay freshwater inflow criteria, surface water availability and operating approaches, agricultural conservation measures, groundwater availability, and economics. Models used to estimate future water availability and environmental flow requirements have been developed largely based on historical observed hydrologic data. This is a common approach used by water planners as well as by many regulatory agencies for permit review. In view of the project's 80-yr planning horizon, contractual obligations, comments from the Science Review Panel, and increased public and regulatory awareness of climate change issues, the project team is exploring climate change projections and methods to assess potential impacts over the project's expected life. Following an initial qualitative risk assessment, quantitative climate scenarios were developed based on multiple coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations under a range of global emission scenarios. Projected temperature and precipitation changes were evaluated from 112 downscaled AOGCM projections. A Four scenarios were selected for detailed hydrologic evaluations using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale model. A quantile mapping procedure was applied to map future climatological period change statistics onto the long-term natural climate variability in the observed record. Simulated changes in runoff, river flow, evaporation, and evapotranspiration are used to generate adjustments to historical hydrology for assessment of potential changes to surface water availability, river water quality, riverine habitat, and Bay health. Projected temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentrations are used to estimate changes in agricultural demand. Sea level rise scenarios that include trends in Gulf Coast shelf subsidence are combined with changes in inflows to evaluate increased coastal erosion, upland migration of the estuary, and changes to the salinity regime. Results of the scenario-based analyses are being considered in the development of adaptive management strategies for future operations of the system and the proposed project.

Spurious Additional Warming Reconstructed From Borehole Temperatures Corrected for the Effect of the Last Glacial Cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šafanda, Jan

2018-03-01

Reconstructions of past ground surface temperature changes from temperature logs conducted in several hundred meter deep boreholes have proved to be a valuable independent source of information on climate variations over the last millennium. The reconstruction techniques have been evolving for more than two decades to extract optimally the climate signal of the last millennium contained in the temperature logs of different length performed in sites with different histories of the Last Glacial Cycle. This paper analyzes the method of the Last Glacial Cycle thermal effect removal from such borehole temperature profiles used by Beltrami et al. (2017, https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL071317) in reconstructing the last 500 year history. I show that the reported results of additional warming in this period reconstructed from the corrected borehole data for North America are an artifact generated by the correction.

Flowering time and seed dormancy control use external coincidence to generate life history strategy.

PubMed

Springthorpe, Vicki; Penfield, Steven

2015-03-31

Climate change is accelerating plant developmental transitions coordinated with the seasons in temperate environments. To understand the importance of these timing advances for a stable life history strategy, we constructed a full life cycle model of Arabidopsis thaliana. Modelling and field data reveal that a cryptic function of flowering time control is to limit seed set of winter annuals to an ambient temperature window which coincides with a temperature-sensitive switch in seed dormancy state. This coincidence is predicted to be conserved independent of climate at the expense of flowering date, suggesting that temperature control of flowering time has evolved to constrain seed set environment and therefore frequency of dormant and non-dormant seed states. We show that late flowering can disrupt this bet-hedging germination strategy. Our analysis shows that life history modelling can reveal hidden fitness constraints and identify non-obvious selection pressures as emergent features.

A regime perspective on the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream response to sudden stratospheric warmings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maycock, A.; Masukwedza, G.; Hitchcock, P.

2017-12-01

The winter North Atlantic eddy-driven jet (NAJ) has been shown to exhibit three preferred latitudinal positions. Here we examine, for the first time, the influence of major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) on the regime behaviour of the NAJ using an ensemble of climate model experiments with stratospheric conditions nudged towards a major SSW, but with each ensemble member having freely evolving tropospheric conditions. The SSW experiment is compared to a control ensemble in which stratospheric variability is absent. The experiments show that the SSW leads to an increased occupancy of the southerly NAJ state and reduced occupancy of the northerly state. This effect is distinct from the mean southward shift of the NAJ identified in many previous studies, and instead suggests changes to the characteristics of NAJ variability as a result of SSWs. These results may aid in understanding the mechanisms by which SSWs impact on Euro-Atlantic climate.

Rapid evolution of phenology during range expansion with recent climate change.

PubMed

Lustenhouwer, Nicky; Wilschut, Rutger A; Williams, Jennifer L; van der Putten, Wim H; Levine, Jonathan M

2018-02-01

Although climate warming is expected to make habitat beyond species' current cold range edge suitable for future colonization, this new habitat may present an array of biotic or abiotic conditions not experienced within the current range. Species' ability to shift their range with climate change may therefore depend on how populations evolve in response to such novel environmental conditions. However, due to the recent nature of thus far observed range expansions, the role of rapid adaptation during climate change migration is only beginning to be understood. Here, we evaluated evolution during the recent native range expansion of the annual plant Dittrichia graveolens, which is spreading northward in Europe from the Mediterranean region. We examined genetically based differentiation between core and edge populations in their phenology, a trait that is likely under selection with shorter growing seasons and greater seasonality at northern latitudes. In parallel common garden experiments at range edges in Switzerland and the Netherlands, we grew plants from Dutch, Swiss, and central and southern French populations. Population genetic analysis following RAD-sequencing of these populations supported the hypothesized central France origins of the Swiss and Dutch range edge populations. We found that in both common gardens, northern plants flowered up to 4 weeks earlier than southern plants. This differentiation in phenology extended from the core of the range to the Netherlands, a region only reached from central France over approximately the last 50 years. Fitness decreased as plants flowered later, supporting the hypothesized benefits of earlier flowering at the range edge. Our results suggest that native range expanding populations can rapidly adapt to novel environmental conditions in the expanded range, potentially promoting their ability to spread. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The effects of climate change on harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus).

PubMed

Johnston, David W; Bowers, Matthew T; Friedlaender, Ari S; Lavigne, David M

2012-01-01

Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) have evolved life history strategies to exploit seasonal sea ice as a breeding platform. As such, individuals are prepared to deal with fluctuations in the quantity and quality of ice in their breeding areas. It remains unclear, however, how shifts in climate may affect seal populations. The present study assesses the effects of climate change on harp seals through three linked analyses. First, we tested the effects of short-term climate variability on young-of-the year harp seal mortality using a linear regression of sea ice cover in the Gulf of St. Lawrence against stranding rates of dead harp seals in the region during 1992 to 2010. A similar regression of stranding rates and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values was also conducted. These analyses revealed negative correlations between both ice cover and NAO conditions and seal mortality, indicating that lighter ice cover and lower NAO values result in higher mortality. A retrospective cross-correlation analysis of NAO conditions and sea ice cover from 1978 to 2011 revealed that NAO-related changes in sea ice may have contributed to the depletion of seals on the east coast of Canada during 1950 to 1972, and to their recovery during 1973 to 2000. This historical retrospective also reveals opposite links between neonatal mortality in harp seals in the Northeast Atlantic and NAO phase. Finally, an assessment of the long-term trends in sea ice cover in the breeding regions of harp seals across the entire North Atlantic during 1979 through 2011 using multiple linear regression models and mixed effects linear regression models revealed that sea ice cover in all harp seal breeding regions has been declining by as much as 6 percent per decade over the time series of available satellite data.

The Effects of Climate Change on Harp Seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus)

PubMed Central

Johnston, David W.; Bowers, Matthew T.; Friedlaender, Ari S.; Lavigne, David M.

2012-01-01

Harp seals (Pagophilus groenlandicus) have evolved life history strategies to exploit seasonal sea ice as a breeding platform. As such, individuals are prepared to deal with fluctuations in the quantity and quality of ice in their breeding areas. It remains unclear, however, how shifts in climate may affect seal populations. The present study assesses the effects of climate change on harp seals through three linked analyses. First, we tested the effects of short-term climate variability on young-of-the year harp seal mortality using a linear regression of sea ice cover in the Gulf of St. Lawrence against stranding rates of dead harp seals in the region during 1992 to 2010. A similar regression of stranding rates and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index values was also conducted. These analyses revealed negative correlations between both ice cover and NAO conditions and seal mortality, indicating that lighter ice cover and lower NAO values result in higher mortality. A retrospective cross-correlation analysis of NAO conditions and sea ice cover from 1978 to 2011 revealed that NAO-related changes in sea ice may have contributed to the depletion of seals on the east coast of Canada during 1950 to 1972, and to their recovery during 1973 to 2000. This historical retrospective also reveals opposite links between neonatal mortality in harp seals in the Northeast Atlantic and NAO phase. Finally, an assessment of the long-term trends in sea ice cover in the breeding regions of harp seals across the entire North Atlantic during 1979 through 2011 using multiple linear regression models and mixed effects linear regression models revealed that sea ice cover in all harp seal breeding regions has been declining by as much as 6 percent per decade over the time series of available satellite data. PMID:22238591

Surface Melt and Firn Density Evolution in the Western Greenland Percolation Zone Over the Past 50 Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graeter, K.; Osterberg, E. C.; Hawley, R. L.; Thundercloud, Z. R.; Marshall, H. P.; Ferris, D. G.; Lewis, G.

2016-12-01

Predictions of the Greenland Ice Sheet's (GIS) contribution to sea-level rise in a warming climate depend on our ability to model the surface mass balance (SMB) processes occurring across the ice sheet. These processes are poorly constrained in the percolation zone, the region of the ice sheet where surface melt refreezes in the firn, thus preventing that melt from directly contributing to GIS mass loss. In this way, the percolation zone serves as a buffer to higher temperatures increasing mass loss. However, it is unknown how the percolation zone is evolving in a changing climate and to what extent the region will continue to serve as a buffer to future runoff. We collected seven shallow ( 22-30 m) firn cores from the Western Greenland percolation zone in May-June 2016 as part of the Greenland Traverse for Accumulation and Climate Studies (GreenTrACS) project. Here we present data on melt layer stratigraphy, density, and annual accumulation for each core to determine: (1) the temporal and spatial accumulation and melt refreeze patterns in the percolation zone of W. Greenland over the past 40 - 55 years, and (2) the impacts of changing melt and refreeze patterns on the near-surface density profile of the percolation zone. Three of the GreenTrACS firn cores re-occupy firn core sites collected in the 1970's-1990's, allowing us to more accurately quantify the evolution of the percolation zone surface melt and firn density during the most recent decades of summertime warming. This work is the basis for broader investigations into how changes in W. Greenland summertime climate are impacting the SMB of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Using Marine and Freshwater Fish Environmental Intelligence Networks Under Different Climate Change Scenarios to Evaluate the Effectiveness of the Minamata Convention on Mercury

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bank, M. S.

2017-12-01

The Minamata Convention on Mercury was recently ratified and will go into effect on August 16, 2017. As noted in the convention text, fish are an important source of nutrition to consumers worldwide and several marine and freshwater species represent important links in the global source-receptor dynamics of methylmercury. However, despite its importance, a coordinated global program for marine and freshwater fish species using accredited laboratories, reproducible data and reliable models is still lacking. In recent years fish mercury science has evolved significantly with its use of advanced technologies and computational models to address this complex and ubiquitous environmental and public health issue. These advances in the field have made it essential that transparency be enhanced to ensure that fish mercury studies used in support of the convention are truly reproducible and scientifically sound. One primary goal of this presentation is to evaluate fish bioinformatics and methods, results and inferential reproducibility as it relates to aggregated uncertainty in mercury fish research models, science, and biomonitoring. I use models, environmental intelligence networks and simulations of the effects of a changing climate on methylmercury in marine and freshwater fish to examine how climate change and the convention itself may create further uncertainties for policymakers to consider. Lastly, I will also present an environmental intelligence framework for fish mercury bioaccumulation models and biomonitoring in support of the evaluation of the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention on Mercury.

Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

DOE PAGES

Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu; ...

2016-01-22

Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economicmore » growth, energy, land, and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater and desalinated water sources —across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in integrated assessment models and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.« less

Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu

Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economicmore » growth, energy, land and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater sources and desalinated water—across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. This study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in IAMs and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.« less

Balancing global water availability and use at basin scale in an integrated assessment model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Son H.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Liu, Lu

Water is essential for the world’s food supply, for energy production, including bioenergy and hydroelectric power, and for power system cooling. Water is already scarce in many regions of the world and could present a critical constraint as society attempts simultaneously to mitigate climate forcing and adapt to climate change, and to provide for a larger and more prosperous human population. Numerous studies have pointed to growing pressures on the world’s scarce fresh water resources from population and economic growth, and climate change. This study goes further. We use the Global Change Assessment Model to analyze interactions between population, economicmore » growth, energy, land, and water resources simultaneously in a dynamically evolving system where competing claims on water resources from all claimants—energy, land, and economy—are reconciled with water resource availability—from renewable water, non-renewable groundwater and desalinated water sources —across 14 geopolitical regions, 151 agriculture-ecological zones, and 235 major river basins. We find that previous estimates of global water withdrawal projections are overestimated. Model simulations show that it is more economical in some basins to alter agricultural and energy activities rather than utilize non-renewable groundwater or desalinated water. Lastly, this study highlights the importance of accounting for water as a binding factor in agriculture, energy and land use decisions in integrated assessment models and implications for global responses to water scarcity, particularly in the trade of agricultural commodities and land-use decisions.« less

Interpopulational Variations in Sexual Chemical Signals of Iberian Wall Lizards May Allow Maximizing Signal Efficiency under Different Climatic Conditions

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Sexual signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve to maximize efficacy under a given climatic condition. Thus, chemical secretions of lizards might evolve in the evolutionary time to ensure that signals are perfectly tuned to local humidity and temperature conditions affecting their volatility and therefore their persistence and transmission through the environment. We tested experimentally whether interpopulational altitudinal differences in chemical composition of femoral gland secretions of male Iberian wall lizards (Podarcis hispanicus) have evolved to maximize efficacy of chemical signals in different environmental conditions. Chemical analyses first showed that the characteristics of chemical signals of male lizards differed between two populations inhabiting environments with different climatic conditions in spite of the fact that these two populations are closely related genetically. We also examined experimentally whether the temporal attenuation of the chemical stimuli depended on simulated climatic conditions. Thus, we used tongue-flick essays to test whether female lizards were able to detect male scent marks maintained under different conditions of temperature and humidity by chemosensory cues alone. Chemosensory tests showed that chemical signals of males had a lower efficacy (i.e. detectability and persistence) when temperature and dryness increase, but that these effects were more detrimental for signals of the highest elevation population, which occupies naturally colder and more humid environments. We suggest that the abiotic environment may cause a selective pressure on the form and expression of sexual chemical signals. Therefore, interpopulational differences in chemical profiles of femoral secretions of male P. hispanicus lizards may reflect adaptation to maximize the efficacy of the chemical signal in different climates. PMID:26121693

Interpopulational Variations in Sexual Chemical Signals of Iberian Wall Lizards May Allow Maximizing Signal Efficiency under Different Climatic Conditions.

PubMed

Martín, José; Ortega, Jesús; López, Pilar

2015-01-01

Sexual signals used in intraspecific communication are expected to evolve to maximize efficacy under a given climatic condition. Thus, chemical secretions of lizards might evolve in the evolutionary time to ensure that signals are perfectly tuned to local humidity and temperature conditions affecting their volatility and therefore their persistence and transmission through the environment. We tested experimentally whether interpopulational altitudinal differences in chemical composition of femoral gland secretions of male Iberian wall lizards (Podarcis hispanicus) have evolved to maximize efficacy of chemical signals in different environmental conditions. Chemical analyses first showed that the characteristics of chemical signals of male lizards differed between two populations inhabiting environments with different climatic conditions in spite of the fact that these two populations are closely related genetically. We also examined experimentally whether the temporal attenuation of the chemical stimuli depended on simulated climatic conditions. Thus, we used tongue-flick essays to test whether female lizards were able to detect male scent marks maintained under different conditions of temperature and humidity by chemosensory cues alone. Chemosensory tests showed that chemical signals of males had a lower efficacy (i.e. detectability and persistence) when temperature and dryness increase, but that these effects were more detrimental for signals of the highest elevation population, which occupies naturally colder and more humid environments. We suggest that the abiotic environment may cause a selective pressure on the form and expression of sexual chemical signals. Therefore, interpopulational differences in chemical profiles of femoral secretions of male P. hispanicus lizards may reflect adaptation to maximize the efficacy of the chemical signal in different climates.

Quantifying the role of climate variability on extreme total water level impacts: An application of a full simulation model to Ocean Beach, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Serafin, K.; Ruggiero, P.; Stockdon, H. F.; Barnard, P.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

Many coastal communities worldwide are vulnerable to flooding and erosion driven by extreme total water levels (TWL), potentially dangerous events produced by the combination of large waves, high tides, and high non-tidal residuals. The West coast of the United States provides an especially challenging environment to model these processes due to its complex geological setting combined with uncertain forecasts for sea level rise (SLR), changes in storminess, and possible changes in the frequency of major El Niños. Our research therefore aims to develop an appropriate methodology to assess present-day and future storm-induced coastal hazards along the entire U.S. West coast, filling this information gap. We present the application of this framework in a pilot study at Ocean Beach, California, a National Park site within the Golden Gate National Recreation Area where existing event-scale coastal change data can be used for model calibration and verification. We use a probabilistic, full simulation TWL model (TWL-FSM; Serafin and Ruggiero, in press) that captures the seasonal and interannual climatic variability in extremes using functions of regional climate indices, such as the Multivariate ENSO index (MEI), to represent atmospheric patterns related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In order to characterize the effect of climate variability on TWL components, we refine the TWL-FSM by splitting non-tidal residuals into low (monthly mean sea level anomalies) and high frequency (storm surge) components. We also develop synthetic climate indices using Markov sequences to reproduce the autocorrelated nature of ENSO behavior. With the refined TWL-FSM, we simulate each TWL component, resulting in synthetic TWL records providing robust estimates of extreme return level events (e.g., the 100-yr event) and the ability to examine the relative contribution of each TWL component to these extreme events. Extreme return levels are then used to drive storm impact models to examine the probability of coastal change (Stockdon et al., 2013) and thus, the vulnerability to storm-induced coastal hazards that Ocean Beach faces. Future climate variability is easily incorporated into this framework, allowing us to quantify how an evolving climate will alter future extreme TWLs and their related coastal impacts.

Reproductive Resilience to Food Shortage in a Small Heterothermic Primate

PubMed Central

Perret, Martine; Henry, Pierre-Yves

2012-01-01

The massive energetic costs entailed by reproduction in most mammalian females may increase the vulnerability of reproductive success to food shortage. Unexpected events of unfavorable climatic conditions are expected to rise in frequency and intensity as climate changes. The extent to which physiological flexibility allows organisms to maintain reproductive output constant despite energetic bottlenecks has been poorly investigated. In mammals, reproductive resilience is predicted to be maximal during early stages of reproduction, due to the moderate energetic costs of ovulation and gestation relative to lactation. We experimentally tested the consequences of chronic-moderate and short-acute food shortages on the reproductive output of a small seasonally breeding primate, the grey mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus) under thermo-neutral conditions. These two food treatments were respectively designed to simulate the energetic constraints imposed by a lean year (40% caloric restriction over eight months) or by a sudden, severe climatic event occurring shortly before reproduction (80% caloric restriction over a month). Grey mouse lemurs evolved under the harsh, unpredictable climate of the dry forest of Madagascar and should thus display great potential for physiological adjustments to energetic bottlenecks. We assessed the resilience of the early stages of reproduction (mating success, fertility, and gestation) to these contrasted food treatments, and on the later stages (lactation and offspring growth) in response to the chronic food shortage only. Food deprived mouse lemurs managed to maintain constant most reproductive parameters, including oestrus timing, estrogenization level at oestrus, mating success, litter size, and litter mass as well as their overall number of surviving offspring at weaning. However, offspring growth was delayed in food restricted mothers. These results suggest that heterothermic, fattening-prone mammals display important reproductive resilience to energetic bottlenecks. More generally, species living in variable and unpredictable habitats may have evolved a flexible reproductive physiology that helps buffer environmental fluctuations. PMID:22848507

Reproductive resilience to food shortage in a small heterothermic primate.

PubMed

Canale, Cindy I; Huchard, Elise; Perret, Martine; Henry, Pierre-Yves

2012-01-01

The massive energetic costs entailed by reproduction in most mammalian females may increase the vulnerability of reproductive success to food shortage. Unexpected events of unfavorable climatic conditions are expected to rise in frequency and intensity as climate changes. The extent to which physiological flexibility allows organisms to maintain reproductive output constant despite energetic bottlenecks has been poorly investigated. In mammals, reproductive resilience is predicted to be maximal during early stages of reproduction, due to the moderate energetic costs of ovulation and gestation relative to lactation. We experimentally tested the consequences of chronic-moderate and short-acute food shortages on the reproductive output of a small seasonally breeding primate, the grey mouse lemur (Microcebus murinus) under thermo-neutral conditions. These two food treatments were respectively designed to simulate the energetic constraints imposed by a lean year (40% caloric restriction over eight months) or by a sudden, severe climatic event occurring shortly before reproduction (80% caloric restriction over a month). Grey mouse lemurs evolved under the harsh, unpredictable climate of the dry forest of Madagascar and should thus display great potential for physiological adjustments to energetic bottlenecks. We assessed the resilience of the early stages of reproduction (mating success, fertility, and gestation) to these contrasted food treatments, and on the later stages (lactation and offspring growth) in response to the chronic food shortage only. Food deprived mouse lemurs managed to maintain constant most reproductive parameters, including oestrus timing, estrogenization level at oestrus, mating success, litter size, and litter mass as well as their overall number of surviving offspring at weaning. However, offspring growth was delayed in food restricted mothers. These results suggest that heterothermic, fattening-prone mammals display important reproductive resilience to energetic bottlenecks. More generally, species living in variable and unpredictable habitats may have evolved a flexible reproductive physiology that helps buffer environmental fluctuations.

The effect of flexural isostasy on the response time of orogenic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braun, J.; Margirier, A.; Guerit, L.

2017-12-01

The concept of orogenic steady-state implies that mountain belts can reach a dynamic balance between uplift and erosion in order to maintain a quasi-constant shape. The final morphology of the mountain will be a function of the relative efficiency between uplift and erosion and is therefore likely to be modulated by climate. However, reaching such a steady-state cannot be instantaneous and there must exist a time lag between the onset of convergence and the full development of the mountain topography. Similarly, when an orogenic system is subject to a marked change in convergence rate or in climatic conditions, it takes a certain time for it to adapt to such a change and develop a new steady-state morphology. It is during these transient phases that the nature and efficiency of the interactions between tectonics and climate are most likely to be constrained by observations and understood. The duration of this transient stage remains, however, poorly constrained and understood. As shown by many authors (Whipple and Tucker, 1999, for example) the rate at which tectonic systems evolve to reach steady-state is likely controlled by climate and rock strength, which both determine the efficiency of erosional processes, and the rate of uplift. Here we show that isostasy also plays a very important role in determining the length of the transient phase and that, depending on the level of isostatic adjustment, which in turn depends on the flexural strength of the underlying lithosphere, isostasy can change the time it takes for an orogenic system to reach steady-state by an order of magnitude, i.,e. from a few millions to a few tens of millions of years. This has very important implications. It may explain why many young orogenic systems display an increase in uplift and erosion rate millions of years after the onset of collision and that, in these situations, such an increase does not require a steady change in tectonic and/or climate conditions/forcing. We also show that this "isostatic buffering" of orogenic response to abrupt changes in tectonic or climatic perturbations can not only lengthen the duration of the transient period, but also dampen the amplitude of the resulting erosional flux. This makes it sometimes difficult to extract the signature of these events from the sedimentary record.

Towards a Seamless Framework for Drought Analysis and Prediction from Seasonal to Climate Change Time Scales (Plinius Medal Lecture)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheffield, Justin

2013-04-01

Droughts arguably cause the most impacts of all natural hazards in terms of the number of people affected and the long-term economic costs and ecosystem stresses. Recent droughts worldwide have caused humanitarian and economic problems such as food insecurity across the Horn of Africa, agricultural economic losses across the central US and loss of livelihoods in rural western India. The prospect of future increases in drought severity and duration driven by projected changes in precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures is worrisome. Some evidence for climate change impacts on drought is already being seen for some regions, such as the Mediterranean and east Africa. Mitigation of the impacts of drought requires advance warning of developing conditions and enactment of drought plans to reduce vulnerability. A key element of this is a drought early warning system that at its heart is the capability to monitor evolving hydrological conditions and water resources storage, and provide reliable and robust predictions out to several months, as well as the capacity to act on this information. At longer time scales, planning and policy-making need to consider the potential impacts of climate change and its impact on drought risk, and do this within the context of natural climate variability, which is likely to dominate any climate change signal over the next few decades. There are several challenges that need to be met to advance our capability to provide both early warning at seasonal time scales and risk assessment under climate change, regionally and globally. Advancing our understanding of drought predictability and risk requires knowledge of drought at all time scales. This includes understanding of past drought occurrence, from the paleoclimate record to the recent past, and understanding of drought mechanisms, from initiation, through persistence to recovery and translation of this understanding to predictive models. Current approaches to monitoring and predicting drought are limited in many parts of the world, and especially in developing countries where national capacity is limited. Evaluation of past droughts and their mechanisms is limited by data availability and especially before the instrumental period of the last 50-100 years, for which there is reliance on incomplete spatial proxy data, such as tree rings. Seasonal predictability is currently mainly limited to tropical and sub-tropical regions through connections with sea surface temperature variations such as ENSO. Predictability in mid-latitudes is low and especially for precipitation, although dynamical model predictions appear to be edging statistical models in many aspects of seasonal prediction. This presentation describes ongoing research on evaluation of drought risk and drought mechanisms at regional to global scales with the eventual goal of developing a seamless monitoring and prediction framework at all time scales. Such a framework would allow consistent assessment of drought from historic to current conditions, and from seasonal and decadal predictions to climate change projections. At the center of the framework is an experimental global drought monitoring and seasonal forecast system that has evolved out of regional and continental systems for the US and Africa. The system is based on land surface hydrological modeling that is driven by satellite remote sensing precipitation to predict current hydrological conditions and the state of drought. Seasonal climate model forecasts are downscaled and bias-corrected to drive the land surface model to provide hydrological forecasts and drought products out 6-9 months. The system relies on historic reconstructions of drought variability over the 20th century, which forms the background climatology to which current conditions can be assessed and drought mechanisms can be diagnosed. Future drought risk is quantified based on bias-corrected and downscaled climate model projections that are used to drive the land surface models. Current research is focused on several aspects, including: 1) quantifying the uncertainties in historic drought reconstructions; 2) analysis of drought propagation through the coupled hydrological/vegetation system; 3) the utility of new data sources such as on the ground sensors and new satellite products for terrestrial hydrology and vegetation, for improved monitoring and prediction, especially in poorly observed regions; 4) advancing predictive skill for all aspects of drought occurrence through diagnosis of the driving mechanisms and feedbacks of historic droughts; and 5) quantification and reduction of uncertainties in future projections of drought under climate change. The steps towards the development of a seamless framework for analysis and prediction in the context of this research are discussed.

The Evolution of Wildland Fire Management Policy in the USA: Successes and Failures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonzalez-Caban, A.

2015-12-01

Wildfires have been suppressed over the last 100 years in forest and brush landscapes. For the last three decades, fires occurrence and severity have significantly increased when compared to historical levels causing economic damage and suppression costs never experienced before in the US or globally. As the wildland fire problem evolved so did the public response through a wildland fire management policy guided by the Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management understanding of the problem. Globally it is estimated that more 350 million hectares of wildland burn annually. They oxidize approximately 3-8% of the total terrestrial net primary productivity. The economic and physical relevance of wildland fire management and protection programs is ever growing, particularly considering mounting wildfire costs and losses globally. In the US alone, from 2000 to 2013 more than 37 million hectares of wildland has been affected at a cost of over $21 billion. The increase in siege-like fires can be explained in part by increasing population, particularly in the wildland-urban interface and the accumulation of biomass fuel due to over a century of fire exclusion. Recent developments demonstrate a strong relationship between fire and weather and climate variations. How the wildland fire management policy has evolved through time? The development can be divided in three stages: the formative years between 1905 and 1911; the consolidation years from 1911 through 1968; and the modern era from 1995 to present. Each stage is characterized by a series of significant events that caused changes on how the problem was approached. For example, the establishment of the Forest Service in 1905 and the rash of large wildfires in the western USA set the base for the wildfire suppression of all wildfires in 1911. During the second stage we see the 1935 policy of suppressing all wildfires by 10-am next-day. By 1968 the policy has evolved to include the use of prescribed burning and the elimination of the 10-am next-day policy. In the modern era, by 1995 the wildland fire management policy changed to require the use of economic efficiency analysis in fire suppression actions. The recently passed FLAME Act and establishment of the FS Cohesive Strategy have been in response to increases in the wildland-urban interface problem and climate change challenges.

The rise of neglected tropical diseases in the "new Texas".

PubMed

Hotez, Peter J

2018-01-01

Within the last five years, the State of Texas has experienced either transmission or outbreaks of Ebola, chikungunya, West Nile, and Zika virus infections. Autochthonous transmission of neglected parasitic and bacterial diseases has also become increasingly reported. The rise of such emerging and neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has not occurred by accident but instead reflects rapidly evolving changes and shifts in a "new" Texas beset by modern and globalizing forces that include rapid expansions in population together with urbanization and human migrations, altered transportation patterns, climate change, steeply declining vaccination rates, and a new paradigm of poverty known as "blue marble health." Summarized here are the major NTDs now affecting Texas. In addition to the vector-borne viral diseases highlighted above, there also is a high level of parasitic infections, including Chagas disease, trichomoniasis, and possibly leishmaniasis and toxocariasis, as well as typhus-group rickettsiosis, a vector-borne bacterial infection. I also highlight some of the key shifts in emerging and neglected disease patterns, partly due to an altered and evolving economic and ecological landscape in the new Texas, and provide some preliminary disease burden estimates for the major prevalent and incident NTDs.

Evolution of complex density-dependent dispersal strategies.

PubMed

Parvinen, Kalle; Seppänen, Anne; Nagy, John D

2012-11-01

The question of how dispersal behavior is adaptive and how it responds to changes in selection pressure is more relevant than ever, as anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change accelerate around the world. In metapopulation models where local populations are large, and thus local population size is measured in densities, density-dependent dispersal is expected to evolve to a single-threshold strategy, in which individuals stay in patches with local population density smaller than a threshold value and move immediately away from patches with local population density larger than the threshold. Fragmentation tends to convert continuous populations into metapopulations and also to decrease local population sizes. Therefore we analyze a metapopulation model, where each patch can support only a relatively small local population and thus experience demographic stochasticity. We investigated the evolution of density-dependent dispersal, emigration and immigration, in two scenarios: adult and natal dispersal. We show that density-dependent emigration can also evolve to a nonmonotone, "triple-threshold" strategy. This interesting phenomenon results from an interplay between the direct and indirect benefits of dispersal and the costs of dispersal. We also found that, compared to juveniles, dispersing adults may benefit more from density-dependent vs. density-independent dispersal strategies.

Changes in dissolved organic matter quality in a northern hardwood forest revealed by excitation emission spectroscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saraceno, J.; Shanley, J. B.; Pellerin, B. A.; Hansen, A. M.

2016-12-01

Changes in dissolved organic matter (DOM) quality may result from unusual and extreme precipitation patterns such as floods and droughts. In order to study DOM quality changes, we collected several hundred surface water samples during the past eight years from the W-9 watershed of the Sleepers River Research Watershed in Danville, Vermont for optical analysis of dissolved organic matter. We present the results of parallel factor (PARAFAC) and principal component analysis (PCA) on excitation emission matrices (EEMs). This analysis revealed that peaks T, C and M as identified by PARAFAC were the most prominent EEM features. The intensity of these peaks varied on inter-annual, seasonal and event time periods and these shifts reflect changes in DOM quality. Likely drivers of this variability in DOM chemistry are seasonal shifts in flow paths, antecedent moisture conditions, and precipitation duration and intensity. For example, during events, the relative proportion of protein-like, peak T fluorophores increased, likely from flushing of fresh polyphenols from surficial and shallow flow paths. During the winter, when groundwater dominates flow, EEMs were strong in humic-like peak C and peak M fluorophores, reflecting deeper soil sources and longer flow paths. Our analyses will reveal how DOM quality responds to climatic drivers, and thus how we can expect DOM quality to evolve under projected climate change scenarios.

Climate and environments during Marine Isotope Stage 11 in the central Iberian Peninsula: the herpetofaunal assemblage from the Acheulean site of Áridos-1, Madrid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blain, Hugues-Alexandre; Santonja, Manuel; Pérez-González, Alfredo; Panera, Joaquin; Rubio-Jara, Susana

2014-06-01

The interglacial episodes of the Quaternary Period are currently the focus of a great deal of attention within the scientific community, primarily because they can help us to understand how the climate of the current interglacial may have evolved without human intervention and to assess the impact of these climate changes on ecological systems. In the central Iberian Peninsula, the archaeological site of Áridos-1 (Arganda, Madrid), with numeric dates of 379.7 ± 45 ka obtained by AAR for the upper part of the sedimentological unit of Arganda I, in combination with the evolved state of the small mammals, has been chronologically attributed to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11. Given the diversified faunal assemblages delivered by the 1976 excavations, Áridos-1 is probably one of the best terrestrial candidates for an understanding of the climatic and environmental conditions that prevailed in central Spain during the MIS 11 interglacial. In consequence, the fossil amphibians and squamate reptiles stored in the collections of the Museo Arqueológico Nacional of Madrid have been newly described and quantified in order to apply the mutual climatic range and habitat weighting methods for estimating quantitative data. The Mediterranean climate is shown to have been warmer and wetter than today in central Spain during MIS 11, with the mean annual temperature 1.7 °C higher and mean annual precipitation 223.9 mm higher than at present. The monthly climatic reconstruction shows differences in the distribution of precipitation over the course of the year, with more abundant precipitation during the winter months, at the beginning of spring and at the end of fall (from October to March) and less precipitation than today during the summer months and at the end of spring (from May to August), suggesting stronger rainfall seasonality between winter and summer than currently occurs. Such climate reconstruction is consistent with other European MIS 11 paleoclimatic records. The paleoenvironmental reconstruction based on the herpetofaunal assemblage suggests a patchy landscape with a large representation of dry meadows, scrubland and rocky habitats together with well-evidenced aquatic habitats. Such open environments during a warm and humid forestal period are seen to be connected with the location of the site in a large river valley, where open vegetation would have been partly initiated and certainly maintained by the grazing, browsing, trampling and tree-felling activities of large mammals.

Hydropower licensing and evolving climate: climate knowledge to support risk assessment for long-term infrastructure decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Walker, S. H.; Trainor, S. F.; Cherry, J. E.

2014-12-01

This presentation focuses on linking climate knowledge to the complicated decision process for hydropower dam licensing, and the affected parties involved in that process. The U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission issues of licenses for nonfederal hydroelectric operations, typically 30-50 year licenses, and longer infrastructure lifespan, a similar time frame as the anticipated risks of changing climate and hydrology. Resources managed by other federal and state agencies such as the NOAA National Marine Fisheries Service may be affected by new or re-licensed projects. The federal Integrated Licensing Process gives the opportunity for affected parties to recommend issues for consultative investigation and possible mitigation, such as impacts to downstream fisheries. New or re-licensed projects have the potential to "pre-adapt" by considering and incorporating risks of climate change into their planned operations as license terms and conditions. Hundreds of hydropower facilities will be up for relicensing in the coming years (over 100 in the western Sierra Nevada alone, and large-scale water projects such as the proposed Lake Powell Pipeline), as well as proposed new dams such as the Susitna project in Alaska. Therefore, there is a need for comprehensive guidance on delivering climate analysis to support understanding of risks of hydropower projects to other affected resources, and decisions on licensing. While each project will have a specific context, many of the questions will be similar. We also will discuss best practices for the use of climate science in water project planning and management, and how creating the best and most appropriate science is also still a developing art. We will discuss the potential reliability of that science for consideration in long term planning, licensing, and mitigation planning for those projects. For science to be "actionable," that science must be understood and accepted by the potential users. This process is a negotiation, with climate scientists needing to understand the concerns of users and respond, and users developing a better understanding of the state of climate science in order to make an informed choice. We will also discuss what is needed to streamline providing that analysis for the many re-licensing decisions expected in the upcoming years.

Differential Responses of Neotropical Mountain Forests to Climate Change during the Last Millenium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Figueroa-Rangel, B. L.; Olvera Vargas, M.

2013-05-01

The long-term perspective in the conservation of mountain ecosystems using palaeoecological and paleoclimatological techniques are providing with crucial information for the understanding of the temporal range and variability of ecological pattern and processes. This perception is contributing with means to anticipate future conditions of these ecosystems, especially their response to climate change. Neotropical mountain forests, created by a particular geological and climatic history in the Americas, represent one of the most distinctive ecosystems in the tropics which are constantly subject to disturbances included climate change. Mexico due to its geographical location between the convergence of temperate and tropical elements, its diverse physiography and climatic heterogeneity, contains neotropical ecosystems with high biodiversity and endemicity whose structure and taxonomical composition have changed along centurial to millennial scales. Different neotropical forests expand along the mountain chains of Mexico with particular responses along spatial and temporal scales. Therefore in order to capture these scales at fine resolution, sedimentary sequences from forest hollows were retrieved from three forest at different altitudes within 10 km; Pine forest (PF), Transitional forest (TF) and Cloud forest (CF). Ordination techniques were used to relate changes in vegetation with the environment every ~60 years. The three forests experience the effect of the dry stage ~AD 800-1200 related to the Medieval Warm Period reported for several regions of the world. CF contracted, PF expanded while the TF evolved from CF to a community dominated by dry-resistant epiphytes. Dry periods in PF and TF overlapped with the increase in fire occurrences while a dissimilar pattern took place in CF. Maize, Asteraceae and Poaceae were higher during dry intervals while epiphytes decreased. A humid period ~1200-1450 AD was associated with an expansion and a high taxa turnover in CF. During periods of aridity, temporal heterogeneity in the abundance of individual taxa was crucial in the determination of forest resilience following climate change, where some taxa disappeared for hundreds years and then reappeared when humidity returns. Given the global climate change prediction for neotropical forests where drier environments are expected, the long-term resilience of these ecosystems may be greatly reduced. Fire was determined as an essential natural component of the PF. Consequently conservation and management strategies should always regard fire as an important tool for its present and future perpetuation. CF is a vulnerable community, distinctive in temporal taxa composition, therefore site-specificity protection schemes are crucial for its future preservation.TF was a CF in the past developing into a Pinus-Carpinus-Quercus forest today. Given the present-day predictions of global warming, the goal in this forest is to avoid its conversion into an open-land establishing strict protection schemes.

Fluctuating temperature leads to evolution of thermal generalism and preadaptation to novel environments.

PubMed

Ketola, Tarmo; Mikonranta, Lauri; Zhang, Ji; Saarinen, Kati; Ormälä, Anni-Maria; Friman, Ville-Petri; Mappes, Johanna; Laakso, Jouni

2013-10-01

Environmental fluctuations can select for generalism, which is also hypothesized to increase organisms' ability to invade novel environments. Here, we show that across a range of temperatures, opportunistic bacterial pathogen Serratia marcescens that evolved in fluctuating temperature (daily variation between 24°C and 38°C, mean 31°C) outperforms the strains that evolved in constant temperature (31°C). The growth advantage was also evident in novel environments in the presence of parasitic viruses and predatory protozoans, but less clear in the presence of stressful chemicals. Adaptation to fluctuating temperature also led to reduced virulence in Drosophila melanogaster host, which suggests that generalism can still be costly in terms of reduced fitness in other ecological contexts. While supporting the hypothesis that evolution of generalism is coupled with tolerance to several novel environments, our results also suggest that thermal fluctuations driven by the climate change could affect both species' invasiveness and virulence. © 2013 The Author(s). Evolution © 2013 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Lake Yoa (Northern Chad): A Seasonal Footprint of 10,500 Years of Climate Change in the Sahara

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroepelin, S.; Cocquyt, C.; Darius, F.; Dinies, M.; Francus, P.; Just, J.; Karls, J.; Kuper, J.; Lézine, A. M.; Mallaye, B.; Melles, M.; Sylvestre, F.; Viehberg, F. A.; Wennrich, V.

2016-12-01

We present Africa's most complete Holocene climate record in a long awaited breakthrough that few would have expected in one of the driest and most remote parts of the Sahara, the planet's major hot desert. A 16 m thick continuous sequence of seasonally laminated (varved) deposits at the bottom of a now fully groundwater-supported oasis lake at Ounianga Kebir in northern Chad extends our earlier 6,000 year record published in 2008 back to the onset of postglacial humid conditions 10,500 years ago in unrivalled detail. Main results indicate a rather slow regreening in northern Africa after 100,000 years of apparently continuous late Pleistocene aridity; precisely define the severe environmental impact of global climate events such as the 8,200 BP North Atlantic cooling even in hypercontinental positions far away from the oceans; and corroborate the gradual termination of the last "Green Sahara" period over millennia. Lake Yoa's varve count-controlled age model also shows the high error potential of the existing 14C chronology from bulk carbonate-dated paleolacustrine archives elsewhere in the Sahara and provides a basis for its correction. The new terrestrial multiproxy data set discloses agreements and discrepancies to marine and ice core data, and numeric climate models. As a natural analogue, it helps to foresee how North Africa's climate and environments might evolve due to anthropogenic global warming.

Ultrascale Visualization of Climate Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, Dean N.; Bremer, Timo; Doutriaux, Charles; Patchett, John; Williams, Sean; Shipman, Galen; Miller, Ross; Pugmire, David R.; Smith, Brian; Steed, Chad;

The Impact of the Evolving Satellite Data Record on Reanalysis Water and Energy Fluxes During the Past 30 Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Miller, T. L.; Bosilovich, M. G.; Chen, J.

2010-01-01

Retrospective analyses (reanalyses) use a fixed assimilation model to take diverse observations and synthesize consistent, time-dependent fields of state variables and fluxes (e.g. temperature, moisture, momentum, turbulent and radiative fluxes). Because they offer data sets of these quantities at regular space / time intervals, atmospheric reanalyses have become a mainstay of the climate community for diagnostic purposes and for driving offline ocean and land models. Of course, one weakness of these data sets is the susceptibility of the flux products to uncertainties because of shortcomings in parameterized model physics. Another issue, perhaps less appreciated, is the fact that the discreet changes in the evolving observational system, particularly from satellite sensors, may also introduce artifacts in the time series of quantities. In this paper we examine the ability of the NASA MERRA (Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications) and other recent reanalyses to determine variability in the climate system over the satellite record ( the last 30 years). In particular we highlight the effect on reanalyses of discontinuities at the junctures of the onset of passive microwave imaging (Special Sensor Microwave Imager) in late 1987 as well as improved sounding and imaging with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit, AMSU-A, in 1998. We examine these data sets from two perspectives. The first is the ability to capture modes of variability that have coherent spatial structure (e.g. ENSO events and near-decadal coupling to SST changes) and how these modes are contained within trends in near global averages of key quantities. Secondly, we consider diagnostics that measure the consistency in energetic scaling in the hydrologic cycle, particularly the fractional changes in column-integrated water vapor versus precipitation as they are coupled to radiative flux constraints. These results will be discussed in the context of implications for science objectives and priorities of the NASA Energy and Water Cycle Study, NEWS.

Differentially expressed drought-responsive genes in Malus sieversii roots may contribute to this species' adaptation to arid environments

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Understanding naturally evolved adaptation to arid climates may be a key factor in developing crops that can thrive during extreme climate fluctuations. Malus sieversii (Ledeb.) M. Roem. is a wild apple species that has adapted to harsh environments in Kazakhstan, including extreme cold and dry reg...

Man and the Last Great Wilderness: Human Impact on the Deep Sea

PubMed Central

Ramirez-Llodra, Eva; Tyler, Paul A.; Baker, Maria C.; Bergstad, Odd Aksel; Clark, Malcolm R.; Escobar, Elva; Levin, Lisa A.; Menot, Lenaick; Rowden, Ashley A.; Smith, Craig R.; Van Dover, Cindy L.

2011-01-01

The deep sea, the largest ecosystem on Earth and one of the least studied, harbours high biodiversity and provides a wealth of resources. Although humans have used the oceans for millennia, technological developments now allow exploitation of fisheries resources, hydrocarbons and minerals below 2000 m depth. The remoteness of the deep seafloor has promoted the disposal of residues and litter. Ocean acidification and climate change now bring a new dimension of global effects. Thus the challenges facing the deep sea are large and accelerating, providing a new imperative for the science community, industry and national and international organizations to work together to develop successful exploitation management and conservation of the deep-sea ecosystem. This paper provides scientific expert judgement and a semi-quantitative analysis of past, present and future impacts of human-related activities on global deep-sea habitats within three categories: disposal, exploitation and climate change. The analysis is the result of a Census of Marine Life – SYNDEEP workshop (September 2008). A detailed review of known impacts and their effects is provided. The analysis shows how, in recent decades, the most significant anthropogenic activities that affect the deep sea have evolved from mainly disposal (past) to exploitation (present). We predict that from now and into the future, increases in atmospheric CO2 and facets and consequences of climate change will have the most impact on deep-sea habitats and their fauna. Synergies between different anthropogenic pressures and associated effects are discussed, indicating that most synergies are related to increased atmospheric CO2 and climate change effects. We identify deep-sea ecosystems we believe are at higher risk from human impacts in the near future: benthic communities on sedimentary upper slopes, cold-water corals, canyon benthic communities and seamount pelagic and benthic communities. We finalise this review with a short discussion on protection and management methods. PMID:21829635

Exploring current and projected tradeoffs between hydropower profitability and reliability of supply in the Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, D.; Castelletti, A.; Burlando, P.

2015-12-01

The recent spreading of renewable energy across Europe and the associated production variability and uncertainty are emerging challenges for hydropower system operation. Widely distributed and highly intermittent solar and wind power generation systems, along with feed-in-tariffs, at which they are remunerated, are threating the operation of traditional hydropower systems. For instance, in countries where the transition to a larger production by means of renewable power systems is a novel process, e.g. Switzerland, many hydropower companies are operating their reservoirs with low or no profits, claiming for a revision of the entire energy market system. This situation goes along with the problem of ensuring energy supply both nowadays and in the future, with changing energy demand and available water resources. In this work, we focus on a hydropower system in the Swiss Alps to explore how different operating policies can cope with both adequate energy supply and profitable operation under current and future climate and socio-economic conditions. We investigate the operation of the Mattmark reservoir in South-West Switzerland. Mattmark is a pumped reservoir of 98 106 m3 fed by a natural catchment of 37 km2 and contributing catchments, summing up to 51 km2, connected by several diversion channels. The hydrological regime, snow- and ice-melt dominated, has already experienced changes in the last decades due to glacier retreat and is expected to be strongly impacted by climate change in the future. We use Multi-Objective optimization techniques to explore current tradeoffs between profitability and secure supply. We then investigate how tradeoffs may evolve in time under different climate change projections and energy market scenarios. Results inform on the co-evolution of climate- and socio-economic induced variations, thus unveiling potential co-benefit situations to hydropower generation and providing insights to future energy market design.

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, R. H.; Blohm, A. J.; Delgado, A.

2015-08-15

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before finalmore » conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure; (4) Vulnerability assessments can be connected to efforts to improve facility resilience to motivate participation; and (5) Efficient, scalable methods for vulnerability assessment can be developed, but additional case studies and evaluation are required.« less

Why Drill Here? Teaching to Build Student Understanding of the Role Sediment Cores from Polar Regions play in Interpreting Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pound, K. S.; St. John, K.; Krissek, L. A.; Jones, M. H.; Leckie, R. M.; Pyle, E. J.

2008-12-01

That the ocean basins provide a record of past global climate changes through their sediment cores is often a surprise or novel idea for students. Equally surprising to many students is the fact that current research is being undertaken in remote polar regions, even though sedimentary records already exist from the low and mid latitude regions. Students are often also perplexed about how decisions are made regarding the selection of drill sites in the polar regions. Using an inquiry-based approach we are developing a series of simple exercises that are scaffolded to build student understanding around the question "Why Drill Here?" The exercises are based on IODP Expedition 302 (ACEX) in the Arctic, and on the Antarctic Geological Drilling (ANDRILL) program, which are used as case studies. The "Why Drill Here?" question is addressed at multiple levels so students can formulate a scientific rationale behind selection of sites for seafloor drilling in the Arctic and Antarctic regions. Technological challenges and solutions to doing field-based science in polar regions are explored. Finally, a subset of research results are investigated and compared with the current scientific paradigm on Cenozoic climate evolution to demonstrate that science is an evolving process. These exercises can be adapted for use in a variety of Introductory Earth Science classes.

Adaptation of Arabidopsis thaliana to the Yangtze River basin.

PubMed

Zou, Yu-Pan; Hou, Xing-Hui; Wu, Qiong; Chen, Jia-Fu; Li, Zi-Wen; Han, Ting-Shen; Niu, Xiao-Min; Yang, Li; Xu, Yong-Chao; Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Fu-Min; Tan, Dunyan; Tian, Zhixi; Gu, Hongya; Guo, Ya-Long

2017-12-28

Organisms need to adapt to keep pace with a changing environment. Examining recent range expansion aids our understanding of how organisms evolve to overcome environmental constraints. However, how organisms adapt to climate changes is a crucial biological question that is still largely unanswered. The plant Arabidopsis thaliana is an excellent system to study this fundamental question. Its origin is in the Iberian Peninsula and North Africa, but it has spread to the Far East, including the most south-eastern edge of its native habitats, the Yangtze River basin, where the climate is very different. We sequenced 118 A. thaliana strains from the region surrounding the Yangtze River basin. We found that the Yangtze River basin population is a unique population and diverged about 61,409 years ago, with gene flows occurring at two different time points, followed by a population dispersion into the Yangtze River basin in the last few thousands of years. Positive selection analyses revealed that biological regulation processes, such as flowering time, immune and defense response processes could be correlated with the adaptation event. In particular, we found that the flowering time gene SVP has contributed to A. thaliana adaptation to the Yangtze River basin based on genetic mapping. A. thaliana adapted to the Yangtze River basin habitat by promoting the onset of flowering, a finding that sheds light on how a species can adapt to locales with very different climates.

Pre-industrial to End 21st Century Projections of Tropospheric Ozone from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, P. J.; Archibald, A. T.; Bowman, K. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Naik, V.; Stevenson, D. S.; Tilmes, S.; Voulgarakis, A.; Wild, O.; Bergmann, D.;

Tropical Pacific Mean State and ENSO Variability across Marine Isotope Stage 3

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hertzberg, J. E.; Schmidt, M. W.; Marcantonio, F.; Bianchi, T. S.

2017-12-01

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the largest natural interannual signal in the Earth's climate system and has widespread effects on global climate that impact millions of people worldwide. A series of recent research studies predict an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events as Earth's climate continues to warm. In order for climate scientists to forecast how ENSO will evolve in response to global warming, it is necessary to have accurate, comprehensive records of how the system has naturally changed in the past, especially across past abrupt warming events. Nevertheless, there remains significant uncertainty about past changes in tropical Pacific climate and how ENSO variability relates to the millennial-scale warming events of the last ice age. This study aims to reconstruct changes in the tropical Pacific mean state and ENSO variability across Marine Isotope Stage 3 from a sediment core recovered from the Eastern Equatorial Pacific cold tongue (MV1014-02-17JC, 0°10.8' S, 85°52.0' W, 2846 m water depth). In this region, thermocline temperatures are significantly correlated to ENSO variability - thus, we analyzed Mg/Ca ratios in the thermocline dwelling foraminifera Neogloboquadrina dutertrei as a proxy for thermocline temperatures in the past. Bulk ( 50 tests/sample) foraminifera Mg/Ca temperatures are used to reconstruct long-term variability in the mean state, while single shell ( 1 test/sample, 60 samples) Mg/Ca analyses are used to assess thermocline temperature variance. Based on our refined age model, we find that thermocline temperature increases of up to 3.5°C occur in-step with interstadial warming events recorded in Greenland ice cores. Cooler thermocline temperatures prevail during stadial intervals and Heinrich Events. This suggests that interstadials were more El-Niño like, while stadials and Heinrich Events were more La-Niña like. These temperature changes are compared to new records of dust flux, export productivity, and bottom-water oxygenation measured in the same core. We will also present single shell Mg/Ca results for an interstadial, stadial, and Heinrich Event interval.

Distinct genecological patterns in seedlings of Norway spruce and silver fir from a mountainous landscape.

PubMed

Frank, Aline; Sperisen, Christoph; Howe, Glenn Thomas; Brang, Peter; Walthert, Lorenz; St Clair, John Bradley; Heiri, Caroline

2017-01-01

Understanding the genecology of forest trees is critical for gene conservation, for predicting the effects of climate change and climate change adaptation, and for successful reforestation. Although common genecological patterns have emerged, species-specific details are also important. Which species are most vulnerable to climate change? Which are the most important adaptive traits and environmental drivers of natural selection? Even though species have been classified as adaptive specialists vs. adaptive generalists, large-scale studies comparing different species in the same experiment are rare. We studied the genecology of Norway spruce (Picea abies) and silver fir (Abies alba), two co-occurring but ecologically distinct European conifers in Central Europe. For each species, we collected seed from more than 90 populations across Switzerland, established a seedling common-garden test, and developed genecological models that associate population variation in seedling growth and phenology to climate, soil properties, and site water balance. Population differentiation and associations between seedling traits and environmental variables were much stronger for Norway spruce than for silver fir, and stronger for seedling height growth than for bud phenology. In Norway spruce, height growth and second flushing were strongly associated with temperature and elevation, with seedlings from the lowlands being taller and more prone to second flush than seedlings from the Alps. In silver fir, height growth was more weakly associated with temperature and elevation, but also associated with water availability. Soil characteristics explained little population variation in both species. We conclude that Norway spruce has become an adaptive specialist because trade-offs between rapid juvenile growth and frost avoidance have subjected it to strong diversifying natural selection based on temperature. In contrast, because silver fir has a more conservative growth habit, it has evolved to become an adaptive generalist. This study demonstrates that co-occurring tree species can develop very different adaptive strategies under identical environmental conditions, and suggests that Norway spruce might be more vulnerable to future maladaptation due to rapid climate change than silver fir. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Mitigating Future Avian Malaria Threats to Hawaiian Forest Birds from Climate Change.

PubMed

Liao, Wei; Atkinson, Carter T; LaPointe, Dennis A; Samuel, Michael D

2017-01-01

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai'i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

Mitigating future avian malaria threats to Hawaiian forest birds from climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Liao, Wei; Atkinson, Carter T.; LaPointe, Dennis; Samuel, Michael D.

2017-01-01

Avian malaria, transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes in the Hawaiian Islands, has been a primary contributor to population range limitations, declines, and extinctions for many endemic Hawaiian honeycreepers. Avian malaria is strongly influenced by climate; therefore, predicted future changes are expected to expand transmission into higher elevations and intensify and lengthen existing transmission periods at lower elevations, leading to further population declines and potential extinction of highly susceptible honeycreepers in mid- and high-elevation forests. Based on future climate changes and resulting malaria risk, we evaluated the viability of alternative conservation strategies to preserve endemic Hawaiian birds at mid and high elevations through the 21st century. We linked an epidemiological model with three alternative climatic projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project to predict future malaria risk and bird population dynamics for the coming century. Based on climate change predictions, proposed strategies included mosquito population suppression using modified males, release of genetically modified refractory mosquitoes, competition from other introduced mosquitoes that are not competent vectors, evolved malaria-tolerance in native honeycreepers, feral pig control to reduce mosquito larval habitats, and predator control to improve bird demographics. Transmission rates of malaria are predicted to be higher than currently observed and are likely to have larger impacts in high-elevation forests where current low rates of transmission create a refuge for highly-susceptible birds. As a result, several current and proposed conservation strategies will be insufficient to maintain existing forest bird populations. We concluded that mitigating malaria transmission at high elevations should be a primary conservation goal. Conservation strategies that maintain highly susceptible species like Iiwi (Drepanis coccinea) will likely benefit other threatened and endangered Hawai’i species, especially in high-elevation forests. Our results showed that mosquito control strategies offer potential long-term benefits to high elevation Hawaiian honeycreepers. However, combined strategies will likely be needed to preserve endemic birds at mid elevations. Given the delay required to research, develop, evaluate, and improve several of these currently untested conservation strategies we suggest that planning should begin expeditiously.

Anthropogenic and climatic controls on carbon and nitrogen exports from Mississippi river basin to Gulf of Mexico during 1800 - 2100: Implications for hypoxia and ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tian, H.; Yang, J.; Zhang, B.; Pan, S.; Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; He, R.; Xue, Z. G.; Lu, C.; Ren, W.; Huang, W. J.; Yao, Y.

2016-02-01

The enlarged size of dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico in 2015, resulting from high summer precipitation and nutrient runoff from agriculture and other human activities in Mississippi river basin, has aroused plenty of scientific attentions and public concerns. Although recent-decade patterns of water/carbon/nitrogen exports from the US land to Gulf of Mexico have been intensively investigated through gauge station monitoring and empirical-based modeling, our understanding of its historical and future long-term trends and the underlying mechanisms is still limited. Climate variability and change, land cover/land use change (e.g., cropland shift from eastern US to Midwest US) and evolving land management practices (e.g., nitrogen fertilizer use in corn belt) are all important drivers regulating interannual, decadal and century-long variability in riverine carbon and nitrogen exports. In this study, we explore river discharge and carbon/nitrogen exports from US drainage basins in a 300-year period covering both historical and future eras (1800 - 2100) and further quantify the contributions of climate, land use, nitrogen fertilizer use, and atmospheric chemistry by using a process-based land ecosystem model (DLEM) with networked river system incorporated. The results indicate that spatial distribution and shift of agricultural land is of critical importance in shaping land-to-aquatic mass flow and coastal water quality. Historical pattern and future scenarios of climate variability and change play an important role in the trend of water yield and enhanced inter-annual variations of river discharge and carbon/nitrogen exports. Atmospheric nitrogen deposition and agricultural nitrogen fertilizer uses in land ecosystem largely contributed to land-to-aquatic nitrogen exports. Our sensitivity analyses with DLEM suggest that precipitation in the basin as well as nitrogen fertilizer use in US corn belt are important determinants of nutrient export and hence the size of dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico. These findings imply that we need to consider both climate and anthropogenic changes taking place in land ecosystems for better developing land management strategies in mitigating hypoxia and ocean acidification.

Creating Near-Term Climate Scenarios for AgMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goddard, L.; Greene, A. M.; Baethgen, W.

2012-12-01

For the next assessment report of the IPCC (AR5), attention is being given to development of climate information that is appropriate for adaptation, such as decadal-scale and near-term predictions intended to capture the combined effects of natural climate variability and the emerging climate change signal. While the science and practice evolve for the production and use of dynamic decadal prediction, information relevant to agricultural decision-makers can be gained from analysis of past decadal-scale trends and variability. Statistical approaches that mimic the characteristics of observed year-to-year variability can indicate the range of possibilities and their likelihood. In this talk we present work towards development of near-term climate scenarios, which are needed to engage decision-makers and stakeholders in the regions in current decision-making. The work includes analyses of decadal-scale variability and trends in the AgMIP regions, and statistical approaches that capture year-to-year variability and the associated persistence of wet and dry years. We will outline the general methodology and some of the specific considerations in the regional application of the methodology for different AgMIP regions, such those for Western Africa versus southern Africa. We will also show some examples of quality checks and informational summaries of the generated data, including (1) metrics of information quality such as probabilistic reliability for a suite of relevant climate variables and indices important for agriculture; (2) quality checks relative to the use of this climate data in crop models; and, (3) summary statistics (e.g., for 5-10-year periods or across given spatial scales).

Climate niches of milkweeds with plesiomorphic traits (Secamonoideae; Apocynaceae) and the milkweed sister group link ancient African climates and floral evolution.

PubMed

Livshultz, Tatyana; Mead, Jerry V; Goyder, David J; Brannin, Michelle

2011-12-01

Climate change that increases mortality of plants and pollinators can create mate-finding Allee effects and thus act as a strong selective force on floral morphology. Milkweeds (Secamonoideae and Asclepiadoideae; Apocynaceae) are typically small plants of seasonally dry habitats, with pollinia and high pollen-transfer efficiency. Their sister group (tribe Baisseeae and Dewevrella) is mostly comprised of giant lianas of African rainforests, with pollen in monads. Comparison of the two groups motivated a new hypothesis: milkweeds evolved in the context of African aridification and the shifting of rainforest to dry forest. Pollinia and high pollen-transfer efficiency may have been adaptations that alleviated mate-finding Allee effects generated by high mortality during droughts. We formally tested whether milkweeds have a drier climate niche by comparing milkweeds with plesiomorphic traits (Secamonoideae) and the milkweed sister group in continental Africa. We georeferenced specimens of the milkweed sister group and Secamonoideae in continental Africa, extracted 19 climatic variables from the Worldclim model, conducted factor analysis to identify correlated suites of variables, and compared the frequency distributions of the two lineages relative to each factor. The distributions of Secamonoideae and the milkweed sister group differed significantly relative to four factors, each correlated with a distinct suite of climate parameters: (1) air temperature (Secamonoideae: cooler), (2) total and (3) summer precipitation (Secamonoideae: drier), and (4) temperature seasonality and isothermality (Secamonoideae: more seasonal and less isothermal). Secamonoideae in continental Africa inhabit drier, cooler sites than do the milkweed sister group, consistent with a shift from rainforests to dry forests in a cooling climate.

Effects of varying obliquity on Martian sublimation thermokarst landforms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dundas, Colin M.

2017-01-01

Scalloped depressions in the Martian mid-latitudes are likely formed by sublimation of ice-rich ground. The stability of subsurface ice changes with the planetary obliquity, generally becoming less stable at lower axial tilt. As a result, the relative rates of sublimation and creep change over time. A landscape evolution model shows that these variations produce internal structure in scalloped depressions, commonly in the form of arcuate ridges, which emerge as depressions resume growth after pausing or slowing. In other scenarios, the formation of internal structure is minimal. Significant uncertainties in past climate and model parameters permit a range of scenarios. Ridges observed in some Martian scalloped depressions could date from obliquity lows or periods of low ice stability occurring <5 Ma, suggesting that the pits are young features and may be actively evolving.

The Essential Role for Laboratory Studies in Atmospheric Chemistry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burkholder, James B.; Abbatt, Jonathan P. D.; Barnes, Ian

Laboratory studies of atmospheric chemistry characterize the nature of atmospherically relevant processes down to the molecular level, providing fundamental information used to assess how human activities drive environmental phenomena such as climate change, urban air pollution, ecosystem health, indoor air quality, and stratospheric ozone depletion. Laboratory studies have a central role in addressing the incomplete fundamental knowledge of atmospheric chemistry. This paper highlights the evolving science needs for this community and emphasizes how our knowledge is far from complete, hindering our ability to predict the future state of our atmosphere and to respond to emerging global environmental change issues. Finally,more » laboratory studies provide rich opportunities to expand our understanding of the atmosphere via collaborative research with the modeling and field measurement communities, and with neighboring disciplines.« less

Do interactions of land use and climate affect productivity of waterbirds and prairie-pothole wetlands?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Anteau, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Availability of aquatic invertebrates on migration and breeding areas influences recruitment of ducks and shorebirds. In wetlands of Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), aquatic invertebrate production primarily is driven by interannual fluctuations of water levels in response to wet-dry cycles in climate. However, this understanding comes from studying basins that are minimally impacted by agricultural landscape modifications. In the past 100–150 years, a large proportion of wetlands within the PPR have been altered; often water was drained from smaller to larger wetlands at lower elevations creating consolidated, interconnected basins. Here I present a case study and I hypothesize that large basins receiving inflow from consolidation drainage have reduced water-level fluctuations in response to climate cycles than those in undrained landscapes, resulting in relatively stable wetlands that have lower densities of invertebrate forage for ducks and shorebirds and also less foraging habitat, especially for shorebirds. Furthermore, stable water-levels and interconnected basins may favor introduced or invasive species (e.g., cattail [Typha spp.] or fish) because native communities "evolved" in a dynamic and isolated system. Accordingly, understanding interactions between water-level fluctuations and landscape modifications is a prerequisite step to modeling effects of climate change on wetland hydrology and productivity and concomitant recruitment of waterbirds.

Mean-state acceleration of cloud-resolving models and large eddy simulations

DOE PAGES

Jones, C. R.; Bretherton, C. S.; Pritchard, M. S.

2015-10-29

In this study, large eddy simulations and cloud-resolving models (CRMs) are routinely used to simulate boundary layer and deep convective cloud processes, aid in the development of moist physical parameterization for global models, study cloud-climate feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interaction, and as the heart of superparameterized climate models. These models are computationally demanding, placing practical constraints on their use in these applications, especially for long, climate-relevant simulations. In many situations, the horizontal-mean atmospheric structure evolves slowly compared to the turnover time of the most energetic turbulent eddies. We develop a simple scheme to reduce this time scale separation to accelerate themore » evolution of the mean state. Using this approach we are able to accelerate the model evolution by a factor of 2–16 or more in idealized stratocumulus, shallow and deep cumulus convection without substantial loss of accuracy in simulating mean cloud statistics and their sensitivity to climate change perturbations. As a culminating test, we apply this technique to accelerate the embedded CRMs in the Superparameterized Community Atmosphere Model by a factor of 2, thereby showing that the method is robust and stable to realistic perturbations across spatial and temporal scales typical in a GCM.« less

Evolution of Aerosol Research in India and the RAWEX–GVAX:An Overview

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krishna Moorthy, K.; Satheesh, S. K.; Kotamarthi, V. R.

Climate change has great significance in Asia in general, and India in particular; and atmospheric aerosols have a decisive role in this. The climate forcing potential of aerosols is closely linked to their optical, microphysical and chemical properties. Systematic efforts to characterize these properties over the Indian region started about 5 decades ago, and evolved over the years through concerted efforts in the form of long-term scientific programmes as well as concerted fields experiments. All these have resulted in this activity becoming one of the most vibrant fields of climate research in India and have brought several important issues inmore » the national and international foci. The field experiment, RAWEX-GVAX (Regional Aerosol Warming Experiment-Ganges Valley Aerosol Experiment), conducted during 2011-12 jointly by the US Department of Energy, Indian Space Research Organization and Department of Science and Technology, has emerged as a direct outcome of the above efforts. This overview provides a comprehensive account of the development of aerosol-climate research in India and south Asia, and the accomplishment and newer issues that warranted the above field campaign. Details of RAWEX-GVAX, the major outcomes and the subsequent and more recent efforts are presented, followed by the way forward in this field for the next several years to come.« less

Analysis of population genetic structure and gene flow in an annual plant before and after a rapid evolutionary response to drought.

PubMed

Welt, Rachel S; Litt, Amy; Franks, Steven J

2015-03-27

The impact of environmental change on population structure is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the effect of a climate change event on gene flow over space and time in two populations of Brassica rapa that evolved more synchronous flowering times over 5 years of drought in southern California. Using plants grown from seeds collected before and after the drought, we estimated genetic parameters within and between populations and across generations. We expected that with greater temporal opportunity to cross-pollinate, due to reduced phenological isolation, these populations would exhibit an increase in gene flow following the drought. We found low but significant FST, but no change in FST or Nm across the drought, in contrast to predictions. Bayesian analysis of these data indicates minor differentiation between the two populations but no noticeable change in structure before and after the shift in flowering times. However, we found high and significant levels of FIS, indicating that inbreeding likely occurred in these populations despite self-incompatibility in B. rapa. In this system, we did not find an impact of climate change on gene flow or population structuring. The contribution of gene flow to adaptive evolution may vary by system, however, and is thus an important parameter to consider in further studies of natural responses to environmental change. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

How much can disaster and climate science contribute to loss and damage mechanisms in international climate policy?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggel, Christian; Allen, Simon; Eicken, Hajo; Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

2015-04-01

As the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently has shown, there is increasing evidence of observed impacts of climate change on natural and human systems. Some of these impacts are negative and result in damage and loss of lives and assets. In international climate policy negotiations under the UNFCCC the discussions on loss and damage have gained significant traction during the past negotiation rounds. At COP 19 the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) was created as an institutional arrangement to address this issue. Thereby, loss and damage (L&D) are typically defined as the residual damage and loss that occur beyond mitigation and adaptation efforts. This implies that effective mitigation and adaptation policy can substantially reduce L&D. While there is wide agreement that knowledge and understanding needs to be strengthened on how L&D due to climate change affects countries, in particular highly vulnerable countries and populations, there is still substantial disagreement on several aspects. In fact, after COP20 in Lima a number of options are on the table, including whether L&D should be located under the adaptation framework or form a separate institutional arrangement, or whether a compensation regime should be established to support developing countries. Similarly, the scientific framework for a clear L&D concept, its application in real-world cases, and implications for international climate policy, in particular with respect to questions of responsibility, liability, compensation and financing, is still evolving. Earlier proposals, for instance, have included a threshold concept, with payments released upon crossing of certain thresholds of climate (related) parameters, similar to insurance procedures. The threshold would be defined as a departure of the parameter from baseline conditions, for instance a rainfall event that is more intense than a certain baseline based threshold. Further proposals for mechanisms of financing suggested a role of causation and thus attribution of L&D to (anthropogenic) climate change. Yet, causation mechanisms are particularly delicate in terms of climate justice, development and implications of legal liabilities. Here, we outline potential contributions of science to L&D mechanisms in greater specificity, in particular for (i) threshold based mechanisms, and (ii) causation related mechanisms. We draw on recent concepts of L&D attribution suggesting a more comprehensive attribution framework based on risk concepts. We present a first-order proof-of-concept for the above mechanisms (i) and (ii), using case studies of recent disasters (both related to extreme events and gradual climate change) in the Indian Himalayas, Colombia, Alaska and Australia. We analyze whether science is in a position to substantially contribute to the different L&D policy proposals, including the question whether currently available data and datasets on climate and hazards, exposure and vulnerability are in line with such support, in particular with regards to developing country contexts. We conclude with a perspective on critical research and data needs to further strengthen L&D science and policy.

Building Partnerships to Address Community Geoscience Priorities: A Brief History of the Thriving Earth Exchange (TEX) Model and its Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Finn, C.; Udu-gama, N.; Pandya, R.; Leshin, L. A.; McEntee, C.; Williams, B. M.; Goodwin, M.

2016-12-01

Increasingly, communities around the world are being challenged by extremes in climatic change and natural hazards and a lack of key natural resources. In many cases, such communities do not have access to the experts and resources they need to address these changes. While partnerships are being developed to address these challenges, there is a need to bring communities and scientists together equitably. Thriving Earth Exchange (TEX), a program powered by the American Geophysical Union (AGU), seeks to connect communities by offering them scientists that can work with them on developing effective solutions for their real-life climate change, natural hazards and/or natural resources challenges. TEX advocates community science - the notion that scientists and communities equitably work together to identify how science can advance local priorities such that it produces local impact, guides future research and generates solutions that can be shared. The concept for TEX evolved from 2011 AGU Council discussions on potential options for impacting AGU's upcoming Centennial. The concept started as a single "Grand Challenge" concept, but evolved through several trails and iterations to today's vibrant TEX program and model. The TEX process is not for every community or scientist. In order to ensure that a community can proceed through a project with a scientist, TEX has found that they often must have a mandate to work on the issue at hand. For instance, if a planning department is tasked with doing a climate vulnerability assessment, a project looking at how heat extremes affect the elderly could probably proceed without interruption from other internal community processes. In some cases, available funds acts as an impetus for a community to seek action. Yet at other times, an individual's passion to address a community challenge may be the spark required to turn ideas into action. This presentation will provide an overview of the TEX genesis within AGU, and its growth and evolution as an "internal start-up" to today's TEX program—a program with partnerships supporting over 35 US-based and international TEX projects. Finally, it will also discuss preliminary lessons learned about what it means for both community and scientists to be ready to work with one another.

Projected changes to rain-on-snow events over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have significant impacts on cold region ecosystems and water-related natural hazards, and therefore it is very important to assess how this hydro-meteorological phenomenon will evolve in a changing climate. This study evaluates the changes in ROS characteristics (i.e., frequency, amounts, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Projected changes to extreme runoff caused by the changes of the ROS characteristics are also evaluated. All simulations suggest general increases in ROS days in late autumn, winter, and early spring periods for most Canadian regions and northwestern USA for the future period, due to an increase in rain days in a warmer climate. Increases in the future ROS amounts are projected mainly due to an increase in ROS days, although increases in precipitation intensity also contributes to the future increases. Future ROS runoff is expected to increase more than future ROS amounts during snowmelt months as ROS events usually enhance runoff, given the land state and asociated reduced soil infiltration rate and also due to the faster snowmelt rate occuring during these events. The simulations also show that ROS events usually lead to extreme runoff over most of Canada and north-western and -central USA in the January-May snowmelt months for the current period and these show no significant changes in the future climate. However, the future ROS to total runoff ratio will significantly decrease for western and eastern Canada as well as north-western USA for these months, due to an overall increase of the fraction of direct snowmelt and rainfall generated runoff in a warmer climate. These results indicate the difficulties of flood risk and water resource managements in the future, particularly in Canada and north-western and -central USA, requiring more in depth studies for these regions to facilitate appropriate adaptation measures.

Advanced Large Scale Cross Domain Temporal Topic Modeling Algorithms to Infer the Influence of Recent Research on IPCC Assessment Reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeman, J.; Halem, M.; Finin, T.; Cane, M. A.

2016-12-01

Approximately every five years dating back to 1989, thousands of climate scientists, research centers and government labs volunteer to prepare comprehensive Assessment Reports for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These are highly curated reports distributed to 200 nation policy makers. There have been five IPCC Assessment Reports to date, the latest leading to a Paris Agreement in Dec. 2016 signed thus far by 172 nations to limit the amount of global Greenhouse gases emitted to producing no more than a 20 C warming of the atmosphere. These reports are a living evolving big data collection tracing 30 years of climate science research, observations, and model scenario intercomparisons. They contain more than 200,000 citations over a 30 year period that trace the evolution of the physical basis of climate science, the observed and predicted impact, risk and adaptation to increased greenhouse gases and mitigation approaches, pathways, policies for climate change. Document-topic and topic-term probability distributions are built from the vocabularies of the respective assessment report chapters and citations. Using Microsoft Bing, we retrieve 150,000 citations referenced across chapters and convert those citations to text. Using a word n-gram model based on a heterogeneous set of climate change terminology, lemmatization, noise filtering and stopword elimination, we calculate word frequencies for chapters and citations. Temporal document sets are built based on the assessment period. In addition to topic modeling, we employ cross domain correlation measures. Using the Jensen-Shannon divergence and Pearson correlation we build correlation matrices for chapter and citations topics. The shared vocabulary acts as the bridge between domains resulting in chapter-citation point pairs in space. Pairs are established based on a document-topic probability distribution. Each chapter and citation is associated with a vector of topics and based on the n most probable topics, we establish which chapter-citation pairs are most similar. We will perform posterior inferences based on Hastings -Metropolis simulated annealing MCMC algorithm to infer, from the evolution of topics starting from AR1 to AR4, assertions of topics for AR5 and potentially AR6.

Geographical differences in maternal basking behaviour and offspring growth rate in a climatically widespread viviparous reptile.

PubMed

Cadby, Chloé D; Jones, Susan M; Wapstra, Erik

2014-04-01

In reptiles, the thermal environment during embryonic development affects offspring phenotypic traits and potentially offspring fitness. In viviparous species, mothers can potentially manipulate the embryonic thermal environment through their basking behaviour and, thus, may be able to manipulate offspring phenotype and increase offspring fitness. One way in which mothers can maximise offspring phenotype (and thus potentially affect offspring fitness) is by fine-tuning their basking behaviour to the environment in order to buffer the embryo from deleterious developmental temperatures. In widespread species, it is unclear whether populations that have evolved under different climatic conditions will exhibit different maternal behaviours and/or thermal effects on offspring phenotype. To test this, we provided extended or reduced basking opportunity to gravid spotted skinks (Niveoscincus ocellatus) and their offspring from two populations at the climatic extremes of the species' distribution. Gravid females fine-tuned their basking behaviour to the basking opportunity, which allowed them to buffer their embryos from potentially negative thermal effects. This fine-tuning of female basking behaviour appears to have led to the expression of geographical differences in basking behaviour, with females from the cold alpine regions being more opportunistic in their basking behaviour than females from the warmer regions. However, those differences in maternal behaviour did not preclude the evolution of geographic differences in thermal effects: offspring growth varied between populations, potentially suggesting local adaptation to basking conditions. Our results demonstrate that maternal effects and phenotypic plasticity can play a significant role in allowing species to cope in changing environmental conditions, which is particularly relevant in the context of climate change.

An anatomy of the projected North Atlantic warming hole in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menary, Matthew B.; Wood, Richard A.

2018-04-01

Global mean surface air temperature has increased over the past century and climate models project this trend to continue. However, the pattern of change is not homogeneous. Of particular interest is the subpolar North Atlantic, which has cooled in recent years and is projected to continue to warm less rapidly than the global mean. This is often termed the North Atlantic warming hole (WH). In climate model projections, the development of the WH is concomitant with a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Here, we further investigate the possible link between the AMOC and WH and the competing drivers of vertical mixing and surface heat fluxes. Across a large ensemble of 41 climate models we find that the spatial structure of the WH varies considerably from model to model but is generally upstream of the simulated deep water formation regions. A heat budget analysis suggests the formation of the WH is related to changes in ocean heat transport. Although the models display a plethora of AMOC mean states, they generally predict a weakening and shallowing of the AMOC also consistent with the evolving depth structure of the WH. A lagged regression analysis during the WH onset phase suggests that reductions in wintertime mixing lead a weakening of the AMOC by 5 years in turn leading initiation of the WH by 5 years. Inter-model differences in the evolution and structure of the WH are likely to lead to somewhat different projected climate impacts in nearby Europe and North America.