Science.gov

Sample records for climate change impacts

  1. Climate change impacts on forestry

    SciTech Connect

    Kirilenko, A.P.; Sedjo, R.A.

    2007-12-11

    Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO{sub 2} are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. The authors' review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. They concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand.

  2. Climate change impacts on forestry

    PubMed Central

    Kirilenko, Andrei P.; Sedjo, Roger A.

    2007-01-01

    Changing temperature and precipitation pattern and increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2 are likely to drive significant modifications in natural and modified forests. Our review is focused on recent publications that discuss the changes in commercial forestry, excluding the ecosystem functions of forests and nontimber forest products. We concentrate on potential direct and indirect impacts of climate change on forest industry, the projections of future trends in commercial forestry, the possible role of biofuels, and changes in supply and demand. PMID:18077403

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Ecosystem Services

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This techn...

  4. Schneider lecture: From climate change impacts to climate change risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Field, C. B.

    2014-12-01

    Steve Schneider was a strong proponent of considering the entire range of possible climate-change outcomes. He wrote and spoke frequently about the importance of low probability/high consequence outcomes as well as most likely outcomes. He worked tirelessly on communicating the risks from overlapping stressors. Technical and conceptual issues have made it difficult for Steve's vision to reach maturity in mainstream climate-change research, but the picture is changing rapidly. The concept of climate-change risk, considering both probability and consequence, is central to the recently completed IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, and the concept frames much of the discussion about future research agendas. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks is important for five core reasons. First, conceptualizing the issue as being about probabilities builds a bridge between current climate variability and future climate change. Second, a formulation based on risks highlights the fact that climate impacts occur primarily in extremes. For historical variability and future impacts, the real concern is the conditions under which things break and systems fail, namely, in the extremes. Third, framing the challenge as one of managing risks puts a strong emphasis on exploring the full range of possible outcomes, including low-probability, high/consequence outcomes. Fourth, explaining climate change as a problem in managing risks links climate change to a wide range of sophisticated risk management tools and strategies that underpin much of modern society. Fifth, the concept of climate change as a challenge in managing risks helps cement the understanding that climate change is a threat multiplier, adding new dimensions and complexity to existing and emerging problems. Framing climate change as a challenge in managing risks creates an important but difficult agenda for research. The emphasis needs to shift from most likely outcomes to most risky outcomes, considering the full

  5. The Psychological Impacts of Global Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Doherty, Thomas J.; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological…

  6. CLIMATE CHANGE. Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents.

    PubMed

    Kerr, Jeremy T; Pindar, Alana; Galpern, Paul; Packer, Laurence; Potts, Simon G; Roberts, Stuart M; Rasmont, Pierre; Schweiger, Oliver; Colla, Sheila R; Richardson, Leif L; Wagner, David L; Gall, Lawrence F; Sikes, Derek S; Pantoja, Alberto

    2015-07-10

    For many species, geographical ranges are expanding toward the poles in response to climate change, while remaining stable along range edges nearest the equator. Using long-term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, we tested for climate change-related range shifts in bumblebee species across the full extents of their latitudinal and thermal limits and movements along elevation gradients. We found cross-continentally consistent trends in failures to track warming through time at species' northern range limits, range losses from southern range limits, and shifts to higher elevations among southern species. These effects are independent of changing land uses or pesticide applications and underscore the need to test for climate impacts at both leading and trailing latitudinal and thermal limits for species.

  7. Climate change impacts on global food security.

    PubMed

    Wheeler, Tim; von Braun, Joachim

    2013-08-02

    Climate change could potentially interrupt progress toward a world without hunger. A robust and coherent global pattern is discernible of the impacts of climate change on crop productivity that could have consequences for food availability. The stability of whole food systems may be at risk under climate change because of short-term variability in supply. However, the potential impact is less clear at regional scales, but it is likely that climate variability and change will exacerbate food insecurity in areas currently vulnerable to hunger and undernutrition. Likewise, it can be anticipated that food access and utilization will be affected indirectly via collateral effects on household and individual incomes, and food utilization could be impaired by loss of access to drinking water and damage to health. The evidence supports the need for considerable investment in adaptation and mitigation actions toward a "climate-smart food system" that is more resilient to climate change influences on food security.

  8. Impacts of climate change on avian populations.

    PubMed

    Jenouvrier, Stephanie

    2013-07-01

    This review focuses on the impacts of climate change on population dynamics. I introduce the MUP (Measuring, Understanding, and Predicting) approach, which provides a general framework where an enhanced understanding of climate-population processes, along with improved long-term data, are merged into coherent projections of future population responses to climate change. This approach can be applied to any species, but this review illustrates its benefit using birds as examples. Birds are one of the best-studied groups and a large number of studies have detected climate impacts on vital rates (i.e., life history traits, such as survival, maturation, or breeding, affecting changes in population size and composition) and population abundance. These studies reveal multifaceted effects of climate with direct, indirect, time-lagged, and nonlinear effects. However, few studies integrate these effects into a climate-dependent population model to understand the respective role of climate variables and their components (mean state, variability, extreme) on population dynamics. To quantify how populations cope with climate change impacts, I introduce a new universal variable: the 'population robustness to climate change.' The comparison of such robustness, along with prospective and retrospective analysis may help to identify the major climate threats and characteristics of threatened avian species. Finally, studies projecting avian population responses to future climate change predicted by IPCC-class climate models are rare. Population projections hinge on selecting a multiclimate model ensemble at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales and integrating both radiative forcing and internal variability in climate with fully specified uncertainties in both demographic and climate processes.

  9. Understanding Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This training module will increase your understanding of the causes of climate change, its potential impacts on water resources, and the challenges it brings. You also will learn about how managers are working to make the United States more resilient..

  10. The psychological impacts of global climate change.

    PubMed

    Doherty, Thomas J; Clayton, Susan

    2011-01-01

    An appreciation of the psychological impacts of global climate change entails recognizing the complexity and multiple meanings associated with climate change; situating impacts within other social, technological, and ecological transitions; and recognizing mediators and moderators of impacts. This article describes three classes of psychological impacts: direct (e.g., acute or traumatic effects of extreme weather events and a changed environment); indirect (e.g., threats to emotional well-being based on observation of impacts and concern or uncertainty about future risks); and psychosocial (e.g., chronic social and community effects of heat, drought, migrations, and climate-related conflicts, and postdisaster adjustment). Responses include providing psychological interventions in the wake of acute impacts and reducing the vulnerabilities contributing to their severity; promoting emotional resiliency and empowerment in the context of indirect impacts; and acting at systems and policy levels to address broad psychosocial impacts. The challenge of climate change calls for increased ecological literacy, a widened ethical responsibility, investigations into a range of psychological and social adaptations, and an allocation of resources and training to improve psychologists' competency in addressing climate change-related impacts.

  11. Regional Climate Tutorial: Assessing Regional Climate Change and Its Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barron, E.; Fisher, A.

    2002-05-01

    Recent scientific progress now enables credible projections of global changes in climate over long time periods. But people will experience global climate change where they live and work, and have difficulty thinking of a future beyond their grandchildren's lifetime. Although the task of projecting climate change and its impacts is far more challenging for regional and relatively near-term time scales, these are the scales at which actions most easily can be taken to moderate negative impacts. This tutorial will summarize what is known about projecting changes in regional climate, and about assessing the impacts for sectors such as forests, agriculture, fresh water quantity and quality, coastal zones, human health, and ecosystems. The Mid-Atlantic Regional Assessment (MARA) is used to provide context and illustrate how adaptation within the region and feedback from other regions influence the impacts that might be experienced.

  12. Projected Climate Change Impacts on Pennsylvania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Najjar, R.; Shortle, J.; Abler, D.; Blumsack, S.; Crane, R.; Kaufman, Z.; McDill, M.; Ready, R.; Rydzik, M.; Wagener, T.; Wardrop, D.; Wilson, T.

    2009-05-01

    We present an assessment of the potential impacts of human-induced climate change on the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, U.S.A. We first assess a suite of 21 global climate models for the state, rating them based on their ability to simulate the climate of Pennsylvania on time scales ranging from submonthly to interannual. The multi-model mean is superior to any individual model. Median projections by late century are 2-4 degrees C warming and 5-10 percent precipitation increases (B1 and A2 scenarios), with larger precipitation increases in winter and spring. Impacts on the commonwealth's aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, forests, energy, outdoor recreation, tourism, and human health, are evaluated. We also examine barriers and opportunities for Pennsylvania created by climate change mitigation. This assessment was sponsored by the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection which, pursuant to the Pennsylvania Climate Change Act, Act 70 of 2008, is required to develop a report on the potential scientific and economic impacts of climate change to Pennsylvania.

  13. Climate impacts of Australian land cover change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawrence, P. J.

    2004-05-01

    Australian land cover has been dramatically altered since European settlement primarily for agricultural utilization, with native vegetation widely replaced or modified for cropping and intensive animal production. While there have been numerous investigations into the regional and near surface climate impacts of Australian land cover change, these investigation have not included the climate impacts of larger-scale changes in atmospheric circulation and their associated feedbacks, or the impacts of longer-term soil moisture feedbacks. In this research the CSIRO General Circulation Model (GCM) was used to investigate the climate impacts of Australian land cover change, with larger-scale and longer-term feedbacks. To avoid the common problem of overstating the magnitude and spatial extent of changes in land surface conditions prescribed in land cover change experiments, the current Australian land surface properties were described from finer-scale, satellite derived land cover datasets, with land surface conditions extrapolating from remnant native vegetation to pre-clearing extents to recreate the pre-clearing land surface properties. Aggregation rules were applied to the fine-scale data to generate the land surface parameters of the GCM, ensuring the equivalent sub-grid heterogeneity and land surface biogeophysics were captured in both the current and pre-clearing land surface parameters. The differences in climate simulated in the pre-clearing and current experiments were analyzed for changes in Australian continental and regional climate to assess the modeled climate impacts of Australian land cover change. The changes in modeled climate were compared to observed changes in Australian precipitation over the last 50 and 100 years to assess whether modeled results could be detected in the historical record. The differences in climate simulation also were analyzed at the global scale to assess the impacts of local changes on larger scale circulation and climate at

  14. Projecting Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westerling, A. L.; Bryant, B. P.; Preisler, H.

    2008-12-01

    We present preliminary results of the 2008 Climate Change Impact Assessment for wildfire in California, part of the second biennial science report to the California Climate Action Team organized via the California Climate Change Center by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program pursuant to Executive Order S-03-05 of Governor Schwarzenegger. In order to support decision making by the State pertaining to mitigation of and adaptation to climate change and its impacts, we model wildfire occurrence monthly from 1950 to 2100 under a range of climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We use six climate change models (GFDL CM2.1, NCAR PCM1, CNRM CM3, MPI ECHAM5, MIROC3.2 med, NCAR CCSM3) under two emissions scenarios--A2 (C02 850ppm max atmospheric concentration) and B1(CO2 550ppm max concentration). Climate model output has been downscaled to a 1/8 degree (~12 km) grid using two alternative methods: a Bias Correction and Spatial Donwscaling (BCSD) and a Constructed Analogues (CA) downscaling. Hydrologic variables have been simulated from temperature, precipitation, wind and radiation forcing data using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) Macroscale Hydrologic Model. We model wildfire as a function of temperature, moisture deficit, and land surface characteristics using nonlinear logistic regression techniques. Previous work on wildfire climatology and seasonal forecasting has demonstrated that these variables account for much of the inter-annual and seasonal variation in wildfire. The results of this study are monthly gridded probabilities of wildfire occurrence by fire size class, and estimates of the number of structures potentially affected by fires. In this presentation we will explore the range of modeled outcomes for wildfire in California, considering the effects of emissions scenarios, climate model sensitivities, downscaling methods, hydrologic simulations, statistical model specifications for

  15. Abrupt climate change: Mechanisms, patterns, and impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Colin

    2012-08-01

    In the span of only a few decades, the global temperature can soar by more than a dozen degrees Celsius, a feat that 20 years ago was considered improbable, if not impossible. But recent research in the nascent field of rapid climate change has upended the dominant views of decades past. Focusing primarily on events during and after the most recent glaciation, from 80,000 years ago, the AGU monograph Abrupt Climate Change: Mechanisms, Patterns, and Impacts, edited by Harunur Rashid, Leonid Polyak, and Ellen Mosley-Thompson, explores the transient climate transitions that were only recently uncovered in climate proxies around the world. In this interview, Eos talks to Harunur Rashid about piecing together ancient climes, the effect of abrupt change on historical civilizations, and why younger researchers may be more worried about modern warming than their teachers.

  16. FEASIBILITY STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The objective of this study is to explore the feasibility of studying potential effects of climate change on impairments resulting from nitrogen loadings in the salt water embayments of Cape Cod. The report includes a recommended plan for studying these impacts, an estimate of the costs and level of effort required; a tally of data, information, and modeling requirements; an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the plan; and recommendations for the appropriate use of results. Study to determine feasibility of studying climate change effects on nitrogen impaired estuarine embayments

  17. Burden Sharing with Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavoni, M.; van Vuuren, D.; De Cian, E.; Marangoni, G.; Hof, A.

    2014-12-01

    Efficiency and equity have been at the center of the climate change policy making since the very first international environmental agreements on climate change, though over time how to implement these principles has taken different forms. Studies based on Integrated Assessment Models have also shown that the economic effort of achieving a 2 degree target in a cost-effective way would differ widely across regions (Tavoni et al. 2013) because of diverse economic and energy structure, baseline emissions, energy and carbon intensity. Policy instruments, such as a fully-fledged, global emission trading schemes can be used to pursuing efficiency and equity at the same time but the literature has analyzed the compensations required to redistribute only mitigation costs. However, most of these studies have neglected the potential impacts of climate change. In this paper we use two integrated assessment models -FAIR and WITCH- to explore the 2°C policy space when accounting for climate change impacts. Impacts are represented via two different reduced forms equations, which despite their simplicity allows us exploring the key sensitivities- Our results show that in a 2 degree stabilization scenarios residual damages remain significant (see Figure 1) and that if you would like to compensate those as part of an equal effort scheme - this would lead to a different allocation than focusing on a mitigation based perspective only. The residual damages and adaptation costs are not equally distributed - and while we do not cover the full uncertainty space - with 2 different models and 2 sets of damage curves we are still able to show quite similar results in terms of vulnerable regions and the relative position of the different scenarios. Therefore, accounting for the residual damages and the associated adaptation costs on top of the mitigation burden increases and redistributes the full burden of total climate change.

  18. Climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen.

    PubMed

    Pinder, Robert W; Davidson, Eric A; Goodale, Christine L; Greaver, Tara L; Herrick, Jeffrey D; Liu, Lingli

    2012-05-15

    Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N(2)O). We use the global temperature potential (GTP), calculated at 20 and 100 y, in units of CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)e), as a common metric. The largest cooling effects are due to combustion sources of oxides of nitrogen altering tropospheric ozone and methane concentrations and enhancing carbon sequestration in forests. The combined cooling effects are estimated at -290 to -510 Tg CO(2)e on a GTP(20) basis. However, these effects are largely short-lived. On a GTP(100) basis, combustion contributes just -16 to -95 Tg CO(2)e. Agriculture contributes to warming on both the 20-y and 100-y timescales, primarily through N(2)O emissions from soils. Under current conditions, these warming and cooling effects partially offset each other. However, recent trends show decreasing emissions from combustion sources. To prevent warming from US reactive nitrogen, reductions in agricultural N(2)O emissions are needed. Substantial progress toward this goal is possible using current technology. Without such actions, even greater CO(2) emission reductions will be required to avoid dangerous climate change.

  19. How is climate change impacting precipitation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heidari, A.; Houser, P. R.

    2015-12-01

    Water is an integrating component of the climate, energy and geochemical cycles, regulating biological and ecological activities at all spatial and temporal scales. The most significant climate warming manifestation would be a change in the distribution of precipitation and evaporation, and the exacerbation of extreme hydrologic events. Due to this phenomenon and the fact that precipitation is the most important component of the water cycle, the assumption of its stationarity for water management and engineering design should be examined closely. The precipitation Annual Maximum Series (AMS) over some stations in Virginia based on in situ data were been used as a starting point to examine this important issue. We analyzed the AMS precipitation on NOAA data for the stations close to Fairfax VA, looked for trends in extreme values, and applied our new method of Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) theory based on quadratic forms to address changes in those extreme values and to quantify non-stationarities. It is very important to address the extreme values of precipitation based on several statistical tests to have better understanding of climate change impact on the extreme water cycle events. In our study we compared our results with the conclusion on NOAA atlas 14 Ap.3 which found no sign of precipitation non-stationarity. We then assessed the impact of this uncertainty in IDF curves on the flood map of Fairfax and compared the results with the classic IDF curves.

  20. Climate change impact on neotropical social wasps.

    PubMed

    Dejean, Alain; Céréghino, Régis; Carpenter, James M; Corbara, Bruno; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Leponce, Maurice; Orivel, Jérome; Bonal, Damien

    2011-01-01

    Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997-2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals.

  1. Climate Change Impact on Neotropical Social Wasps

    PubMed Central

    Dejean, Alain; Céréghino, Régis; Carpenter, James M.; Corbara, Bruno; Hérault, Bruno; Rossi, Vivien; Leponce, Maurice; Orivel, Jérome; Bonal, Damien

    2011-01-01

    Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997–2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals. PMID:22073236

  2. Advancing Climate Change and Impacts Science Through Climate Informatics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenhardt, W.; Pouchard, L. C.; King, A. W.; Branstetter, M. L.; Kao, S.; Wang, D.

    2010-12-01

    This poster will outline the work to date on developing a climate informatics capability at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The central proposition of this effort is that the application of informatics and information science to the domain of climate change science is an essential means to bridge the realm of high performance computing (HPC) and domain science. The goal is to facilitate knowledge capture and the creation of new scientific insights. For example, a climate informatics capability will help with the understanding and use of model results in domain sciences that were not originally in the scope. From there, HPC can also benefit from feedback as the new approaches may lead to better parameterization in the models. In this poster we will summarize the challenges associated with climate change science that can benefit from the systematic application of informatics and we will highlight our work to date in creating the climate informatics capability to address these types of challenges. We have identified three areas that are particularly challenging in the context of climate change science: 1) integrating model and observational data across different spatial and temporal scales, 2) model linkages, i.e. climate models linked to other models such as hydrologic models, and 3) model diagnostics. Each of these has a methodological component and an informatics component. Our project under way at ORNL seeks to develop new approaches and tools in the context of linking climate change and water issues. We are basing our work on the following four use cases: 1) Evaluation/test of CCSM4 biases in hydrology (precipitation, soil water, runoff, river discharge) over the Rio Grande Basin. User: climate modeler. 2) Investigation of projected changes in hydrology of Rio Grande Basin using the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity Macroscale) Hydrologic Model. User: watershed hydrologist/modeler. 3) Impact of climate change on agricultural productivity of the Rio Grande

  3. Climate Change Impacts on Marine Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doney, Scott C.; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Emmett Duffy, J.; Barry, James P.; Chan, Francis; English, Chad A.; Galindo, Heather M.; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.; Hollowed, Anne B.; Knowlton, Nancy; Polovina, Jeffrey; Rabalais, Nancy N.; Sydeman, William J.; Talley, Lynne D.

    2012-01-01

    In marine ecosystems, rising atmospheric CO2 and climate change are associated with concurrent shifts in temperature, circulation, stratification, nutrient input, oxygen content, and ocean acidification, with potentially wide-ranging biological effects. Population-level shifts are occurring because of physiological intolerance to new environments, altered dispersal patterns, and changes in species interactions. Together with local climate-driven invasion and extinction, these processes result in altered community structure and diversity, including possible emergence of novel ecosystems. Impacts are particularly striking for the poles and the tropics, because of the sensitivity of polar ecosystems to sea-ice retreat and poleward species migrations as well as the sensitivity of coral-algal symbiosis to minor increases in temperature. Midlatitude upwelling systems, like the California Current, exhibit strong linkages between climate and species distributions, phenology, and demography. Aggregated effects may modify energy and material flows as well as biogeochemical cycles, eventually impacting the overall ecosystem functioning and services upon which people and societies depend.

  4. Integrated Climate Change Impacts Assessment in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Meyer, R.; Anderson, M.; Bromirski, P. D.

    2014-12-01

    This paper summarizes lessons learned from an ongoing series of climate change assessments for California, conducted by the scientific community and State and local agencies. A series of three Assessments have considered vulnerability and adaptation issues for both managed and natural systems. California's vulnerability is many faceted, arising because of an exceptionally drought prone climate, open coast and large estuary exposure to sea level rise, sensitive ecosystems and complex human footprint and economy. Key elements of the assessments have been a common set of climate and sea-level rise scenarios, based upon IPCC GCM simulations. Regionalized and localized output from GCM projections was provided to research teams investigating water supply, agriculture, coastal resources, ecosystem services, forestry, public health, and energy demand and hydropower generation. The assessment results are helping to investigate the broad range of uncertainty that is inherent in climate projections, and users are becoming better equipped to process an envelope of potential climate and impacts. Some projections suggest that without changes in California's present fresh-water delivery system, serious water shortages would take place, but that technical solutions are possible. Under a warmer climate, wildfire vulnerability is heightened markedly in some areas--estimated increases in burned area by the end of the 21st Century exceed 100% of the historical area burned in much of the forested areas of Northern California Along California coast and estuaries, projected rise in mean sea level will accelerate flooding occurrences, prompting the need for better education and preparedness. Many policymakers and agency personnel in California are factoring in results from the assessments and recognize the need for a sustained assessment process. An ongoing challenge, of course, is to achieve more engagement with a broader community of decision makers, and notably with the private sector.

  5. How Will Climate Change Impact Cholera Outbreaks?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nasr Azadani, F.; Jutla, A.; Rahimikolu, J.; Akanda, A. S.; Huq, A.; Colwell, R. R.

    2014-12-01

    Environmental parameters associated with cholera are well documented. However, cholera continues to be a global public health threat. Uncertainty in defining environmental processes affecting growth and multiplication of the cholera bacteria can be affected significantly by changing climate at different temporal and spatial scales, either through amplification of the hydroclimatic cycle or by enhanced variability of large scale geophysical processes. Endemic cholera in the Bengal Delta region of South Asia has a unique pattern of two seasonal peaks and there are associated with asymmetric and episodic variability in river discharge. The first cholera outbreak in spring is related with intrusion of bacteria laden coastal seawater during low river discharge. Cholera occurring during the fall season is hypothesized to be associated with high river discharge related to a cross-contamination of water resources and, therefore, a second wave of disease, a phenomenon characteristic primarily in the inland regions. Because of difficulties in establishing linkage between coarse resolutions of the Global Climate Model (GCM) output and localized disease outbreaks, the impact of climate change on diarrheal disease has not been explored. Here using the downscaling method of Support Vector Machines from HADCM3 and ECHAM models, we show how cholera outbreak patterns are changing in the Bengal Delta. Our preliminary results indicate statistically significant changes in both seasonality and magnitude in the occurrence of cholera over the next century. Endemic cholera is likely to transform into epidemic forms and new geographical areas will be at risk for cholera outbreaks.

  6. Climate Change Impacts in the Amazon. Review of scientific literature

    SciTech Connect

    2006-04-15

    The Amazon's hydrological cycle is a key driver of global climate, and global climate is therefore sensitive to changes in the Amazon. Climate change threatens to substantially affect the Amazon region, which in turn is expected to alter global climate and increase the risk of biodiversity loss. In this literature review the following subjects can be distinguished: Observed Climatic Change and Variability, Predicted Climatic Change, Impacts, Forests, Freshwater, Agriculture, Health, and Sea Level Rise.

  7. Online Impact Prioritization of Essential Climate Variables on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Barkstrom, B. B.; Roberts, K. P.

    2007-12-01

    The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s NCDC Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Team has developed an online prototype that is capable of displaying the "big picture" perspective of all Essential Climate Variable (ECV) impacts on society and value to the IPCC. This prototype ECV-Model provides the ability to visualize global ECV information with options to drill down in great detail. It offers a quantifiable prioritization of ECV impacts that potentially may significantly enhance collaboration with respect to dealing effectively with climate change. The ECV-Model prototype assures anonymity and provides an online input mechanism for subject matter experts and decision makers to access, review and submit: (1) ranking of ECV"s, (2) new ECV's and associated impact categories and (3) feedback about ECV"s, satellites, etc. Input and feedback are vetted by experts before changes or additions are implemented online. The SDS prototype also provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of satellites; and general as well as detailed information in conjunction with imagery. NCDC's version 1.0 release will be available to the public and provide an easy "at-a-glance" interface to rapidly identify gaps and overlaps of satellites and associated instruments monitoring climate change ECV's. The SDS version 1.1 will enhance depiction of gaps and overlaps with instruments associated with In-Situ and Satellites related to ECVs. NOAA's SDS model empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in monitoring climate change ECV's and potentially significantly enhance collaboration.

  8. Assessing the impacts of climate change on natural resource systems

    SciTech Connect

    Frederick, K.D.; Rosenberg, N.J.

    1994-11-30

    This volume is a collection of papers addressing the theme of potential impacts of climatic change. Papers are entitled Integrated Assessments of the Impacts of Climatic Change on Natural Resources: An Introductory Editorial; Framework for Integrated Assessments of Global Warming Impacts; Modeling Land Use and Cover as Part of Global Environmental Change; Assessing Impacts of Climatic Change on Forests: The State of Biological Modeling; Integrating Climatic Change and Forests: Economic and Ecological Assessments; Environmental Change in Grasslands: Assessment using Models; Assessing the Socio-economic Impacts of Climatic Change on Grazinglands; Modeling the Effects of Climatic Change on Water Resources- A Review; Assessing the Socioeconomic Consequences of Climate Change on Water Resources; and Conclusions, Remaining Issues, and Next Steps.

  9. Modeling climate change impacts on water trading.

    PubMed

    Luo, Bin; Maqsood, Imran; Gong, Yazhen

    2010-04-01

    This paper presents a new method of evaluating the impacts of climate change on the long-term performance of water trading programs, through designing an indicator to measure the mean of periodic water volume that can be released by trading through a water-use system. The indicator is computed with a stochastic optimization model which can reflect the random uncertainty of water availability. The developed method was demonstrated in the Swift Current Creek watershed of Prairie Canada under two future scenarios simulated by a Canadian Regional Climate Model, in which total water availabilities under future scenarios were estimated using a monthly water balance model. Frequency analysis was performed to obtain the best probability distributions for both observed and simulated water quantity data. Results from the case study indicate that the performance of a trading system is highly scenario-dependent in future climate, with trading effectiveness highly optimistic or undesirable under different future scenarios. Trading effectiveness also largely depends on trading costs, with high costs resulting in failure of the trading program.

  10. Conceptual Model of Climate Change Impacts at LANL

    SciTech Connect

    Dewart, Jean Marie

    2016-05-17

    Goal 9 of the LANL FY15 Site Sustainability Plan (LANL 2014a) addresses Climate Change Adaptation. As part of Goal 9, the plan reviews many of the individual programs the Laboratory has initiated over the past 20 years to address climate change impacts to LANL (e.g. Wildland Fire Management Plan, Forest Management Plan, etc.). However, at that time, LANL did not yet have a comprehensive approach to climate change adaptation. To fill this gap, the FY15 Work Plan for the LANL Long Term Strategy for Environmental Stewardship and Sustainability (LANL 2015) included a goal of (1) establishing a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts at LANL and (2) establishing specific climate change indices to measure climate change and impacts at Los Alamos. Establishing a conceptual model of climate change impacts will demonstrate that the Laboratory is addressing climate change impacts in a comprehensive manner. This paper fulfills the requirement of goal 1. The establishment of specific indices of climate change at Los Alamos (goal 2), will improve our ability to determine climate change vulnerabilities and assess risk. Future work will include prioritizing risks, evaluating options/technologies/costs, and where appropriate, taking actions. To develop a comprehensive conceptual model of climate change impacts, we selected the framework provided in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Resilience Toolkit (http://toolkit.climate.gov/).

  11. Climate change impacts on agriculture in Apulia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lionello, Piero; Congedi, Letizia; Reale, Marco; Scarascia, Luca; Tanzarella, Annalisa

    2013-04-01

    This study describes the evolution of climate from recent past to the next decades in Apulia, a region in Southern Italy, and estimates its future impacts on its main agricultural products. The analysis is based on instrumental data, on an ensemble of climate projections and on a linear regression model linking typical Mediterranean products (wheat, olive oil and wine) to seasonal values of temperature and precipitation. In the past decades, wheat, olive oil and wine production records (the three main agricultural products in Apulia) show large inter-annual variabilityand an important fraction of it is explained by past climate variability. Regional Climate Model simulations show a large acceleration of the warming rate and a decrease of precipitation in the period 2001-2050. Results (considering no adaptation of crops) suggest that climate evolution in the first half of the 21st century would decrease wine production, have a small effect on wheat and increase olive oil production.

  12. Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change impacts on the United States vary by region and sector of the economy. Responses to climate change fall into two major categories. Mitigation focuses on the reducing emissions of heat-trapping gases or increasing their uptake to reduce the amount and speed of climate change. Adaptatio...

  13. Understanding How Biomass Burning Impacts Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Aiken, Allison

    2016-09-27

    Biomass burning in Africa is creating a plume that spreads across the Atlantic Ocean all the way to Brazil. Allison Aiken, a research scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, collects data about the black carbon aerosols within this plume and their impact on the environment to help improve global climate modeling. A leader in energy science, Los Alamos develops climate models in support of the Laboratory’s mission to strengthen the nation’s energy security. Allison’s work is part of FIDO, a field operations team funded by the Energy Department’s Office of Science’s ARM Climate Research Facility.

  14. Anticipating impacts of climate change on organic agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Conventional and organic agriculture are inextricably linked to climate and will be impacted by climate change. Organic agriculture, unlike conventional agriculture, encompasses heterogeneous agricultural management methods and practices owing to its multiple origins around the world. Although it re...

  15. Climate change impacts on food system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

    2014-12-01

    Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

  16. Ecological and evolutionary impacts of changing climatic variability.

    PubMed

    Vázquez, Diego P; Gianoli, Ernesto; Morris, William F; Bozinovic, Francisco

    2017-02-01

    While average temperature is likely to increase in most locations on Earth, many places will simultaneously experience higher variability in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Although ecologists and evolutionary biologists widely recognize the potential impacts of changes in average climatic conditions, relatively little attention has been paid to the potential impacts of changes in climatic variability and extremes. We review the evidence on the impacts of increased climatic variability and extremes on physiological, ecological and evolutionary processes at multiple levels of biological organization, from individuals to populations and communities. Our review indicates that climatic variability can have profound influences on biological processes at multiple scales of organization. Responses to increased climatic variability and extremes are likely to be complex and cannot always be generalized, although our conceptual and methodological toolboxes allow us to make informed predictions about the likely consequences of such climatic changes. We conclude that climatic variability represents an important component of climate that deserves further attention.

  17. Projected climate change impact on oceanic acidification

    PubMed Central

    McNeil, Ben I; Matear, Richard J

    2006-01-01

    Background Anthropogenic CO2 uptake by the ocean decreases the pH of seawater, leading to an 'acidification' which may have potential detrimental consequences on marine organisms [1]. Ocean warming or circulation alterations induced by climate change has the potential to slowdown the rate of acidification of ocean waters by decreasing the amount of CO2 uptake by the ocean [2]. However, a recent study showed that climate change affected the decrease in pH insignificantly [3]. Here, we examine the sensitivity of future oceanic acidification to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model and find that ocean warming dominates the climate change feedbacks. Results Our results show that the direct decrease in pH due to ocean warming is approximately equal to but opposite in magnitude to the indirect increase in pH associated with ocean warming (ie reduced DIC concentration of the upper ocean caused by lower solubility of CO2). Conclusion As climate change feedbacks on pH approximately cancel, future oceanic acidification will closely follow future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This suggests the only way to slowdown or mitigate the potential biological consequences of future ocean acidification is to significantly reduce fossil-fuel emissions of CO2 to the atmosphere. PMID:16930458

  18. Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Neofotis, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Human-influenced climate change is an observed phenomenon affecting physical and biological systems across the globe. The majority of observed impacts are related to temperature changes and are located in the northern high- and midlatitudes. However, new evidence is emerging that demonstrates that impacts are related to precipitation changes as well as temperature, and that climate change is impacting systems and sectors beyond the Northern Hemisphere. In this paper, we highlight some of this new evidence-focusing on regions and sectors that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) noted as under-represented-in the context of observed climate change impacts, direct and indirect drivers of change (including carbon dioxide itself), and methods of detection. We also present methods and studies attributing observed impacts to anthropogenic forcing. We argue that the expansion of methods of detection (in terms of a broader array of climate variables and data sources, inclusion of the major modes of climate variability, and incorporation of other drivers of change) is key to discerning the climate sensitivities of sectors and systems in regions where the impacts of climate change currently remain elusive. Attributing such changes to human forcing of the climate system, where possible, is important for development of effective mitigation and adaptation. Current challenges in documenting adaptation and the role of indigenous knowledge in detection and attribution are described.

  19. Impact of Climate Change on Elder Health

    PubMed Central

    Staats, David; Willcox, Bradley J.

    2014-01-01

    Demographers predict human life expectancy will continue to increase over the coming century. These forecasts are based on two critical assumptions: advances in medical technology will continue apace and the environment that sustains us will remain unchanged. The consensus of the scientific community is that human activity contributes to global climate change. That change will degrade air and water quality, and global temperature could rise 11.5°F by 2100. If nothing is done to alter this climatic trajectory, humans will be confronted by a broad spectrum of radical environmental challenges. Historically, children and the elderly adults account for most of the death toll during times of severe environmental stress. This article makes an assessment from a geriatric viewpoint of the adverse health consequences that global climate change will bring to the older segments of future populations in the United States. PMID:24158763

  20. Impact of climate change on elder health.

    PubMed

    Carnes, Bruce A; Staats, David; Willcox, Bradley J

    2014-09-01

    Demographers predict human life expectancy will continue to increase over the coming century. These forecasts are based on two critical assumptions: advances in medical technology will continue apace and the environment that sustains us will remain unchanged. The consensus of the scientific community is that human activity contributes to global climate change. That change will degrade air and water quality, and global temperature could rise 11.5°F by 2100. If nothing is done to alter this climatic trajectory, humans will be confronted by a broad spectrum of radical environmental challenges. Historically, children and the elderly adults account for most of the death toll during times of severe environmental stress. This article makes an assessment from a geriatric viewpoint of the adverse health consequences that global climate change will bring to the older segments of future populations in the United States.

  1. Understanding How Biomass Burning Impacts Climate Change

    ScienceCinema

    Aiken, Allison

    2016-10-12

    Biomass burning in Africa is creating a plume that spreads across the Atlantic Ocean all the way to Brazil. Allison Aiken, a research scientist at Los Alamos National Laboratory, collects data about the black carbon aerosols within this plume and their impact on the environment to help improve global climate modeling. A leader in energy science, Los Alamos develops climate models in support of the Laboratory’s mission to strengthen the nation’s energy security. Allison’s work is part of FIDO, a field operations team funded by the Energy Department’s Office of Science’s ARM Climate Research Facility.

  2. Climate change and its impacts on estuaries

    EPA Science Inventory

    Past, present, and future research by WED scientists in the TEP region will be described to lay the foundation for examination of potential climate change effects on estuaries and the broader coastal zone in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). Results from National Coastal Assessments,...

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Biofuels Production

    SciTech Connect

    Melillo, Jerry M.

    2014-04-30

    The overall goal of this research project was to improve and use our biogeochemistry model, TEM, to simulate the effects of climate change and other environmental changes on the production of biofuel feedstocks. We used the improved version of TEM that is coupled with the economic model, EPPA, a part of MIT’s Earth System Model, to explore how alternative uses of land, including land for biofuels production, can help society meet proposed climate targets. During the course of this project, we have made refinements to TEM that include development of a more mechanistic plant module, with improved ecohydrology and consideration of plant-water relations, and a more detailed treatment of soil nitrogen dynamics, especially processes that add or remove nitrogen from ecosystems. We have documented our changes to TEM and used the model to explore the effects on production in land ecosystems, including changes in biofuels production.

  4. Assessing the observed impact of anthropogenic climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2016-05-01

    Impacts of recent regional changes in climate on natural and human systems are documented across the globe, yet studies explicitly linking these observations to anthropogenic forcing of the climate are scarce. Here we provide a systematic assessment of the role of anthropogenic climate change for the range of impacts of regional climate trends reported in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report. We find that almost two-thirds of the impacts related to atmospheric and ocean temperature can be confidently attributed to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, evidence connecting changes in precipitation and their respective impacts to human influence is still weak. Moreover, anthropogenic climate change has been a major influence for approximately three-quarters of the impacts observed on continental scales. Hence the effects of anthropogenic emissions can now be discerned not only globally, but also at more regional and local scales for a variety of natural and human systems.

  5. Impact on human health of climate changes.

    PubMed

    Franchini, Massimo; Mannucci, Pier Mannuccio

    2015-01-01

    There is increasing evidence that climate is rapidly changing. These changes, which are mainly driven by the dramatic increase of greenhouse gas emissions from anthropogenic activities, have the potential to affect human health in several ways. These include a global rise in average temperature, an increased frequency of heat waves, of weather events such as hurricanes, cyclones and drought periods, plus an altered distribution of allergens and vector-borne infectious diseases. The cardiopulmonary system and the gastrointestinal tract are particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of global warming. Moreover, some infectious diseases and their animal vectors are influenced by climate changes, resulting in higher risk of typhus, cholera, malaria, dengue and West Nile virus infection. On the other hand, at mid latitudes warming may reduce the rate of diseases related to cold temperatures (such as pneumonia, bronchitis and arthritis), but these benefits are unlikely to rebalance the risks associated to warming.

  6. Climate change -- Its impacts on Bangladesh

    SciTech Connect

    Sobhan, M.A.

    1994-12-31

    Predictions regarding the possible effects of global warming on Bangladesh`s climate are uncertain. However, the predictions for 2030 made by four General Circulation Models all suggest that there might be increased precipitation, with estimates ranging between 5 and 100% increases in rainfall. Increases of these magnitudes, if they were to occur, would have significant implications for agriculture, flooding, river sediment loads, and flood protection works. Increased flooding of the coastal areas of countries like Bangladesh is a possibility, and enormous health and economic distress and human suffering may follow. With the change in temperature, there may be unpredictable change in bacterial and viral morphology with health hazards of unpredictable limits. It has been estimated that a 100 cm rise in sea level in the Bay of Bengal would result in 12--18% of land areas of Bangladesh being lost to the sea, including most of the Sundarbans. Although it is difficult to predict the timing and magnitude of all the global changes including sea-level rise, climate change, etc., it is anticipated that one of the most serious consequence for Bangladesh would be the reduction of already minimal land: person ratio and consequently exacerbating pressure on the remaining natural resources. Bangladesh is in favor of an international agreement for assistance to vulnerable countries like Bangladesh to take necessary preparations and adopt measures to survive a sea-level rise, climate change, increased flooding, and more frequent storm surges.

  7. Probable impacts of climate change on public health in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Shahid, Shamsuddin

    2010-07-01

    The recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change confirmed that there is overwhelming evidence that the global climate will severely affect human health. Climate change might have severe consequences on public health in Bangladesh, especially in light of the poor state of the country's public health infrastructure. A number of possible direct and indirect impacts of climate change on public health in Bangladesh have been identified in this article. Adaptive measures that should be taken to reduce the negative consequences of climate change on public health have also been discussed.

  8. Climate Change in Myanmar: Impacts and Adaptation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-12-01

    stage, it can be argued that signing on to the Rio Summit, the Kyoto Protocol and other similar treaties was done for purely political benefit with...the Kyoto Protocol . Furthermore, regional agreements are in place to mitigate environmental issues and adapt to climate change. Among these are...the Kyoto Protocol in late 1997. As these developments advanced together, SLORC/SPDC policies showed greater consideration for the environment and

  9. Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health.

    PubMed

    Bennett, Charmian M; Friel, Sharon

    2014-12-03

    This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world's poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health.

  10. Impacts of Climate Change on Inequities in Child Health

    PubMed Central

    Bennett, Charmian M.; Friel, Sharon

    2014-01-01

    This paper addresses an often overlooked aspect of climate change impacts on child health: the amplification of existing child health inequities by climate change. Although the effects of climate change on child health will likely be negative, the distribution of these impacts across populations will be uneven. The burden of climate change-related ill-health will fall heavily on the world’s poorest and socially-disadvantaged children, who already have poor survival rates and low life expectancies due to issues including poverty, endemic disease, undernutrition, inadequate living conditions and socio-economic disadvantage. Climate change will exacerbate these existing inequities to disproportionately affect disadvantaged children. We discuss heat stress, extreme weather events, vector-borne diseases and undernutrition as exemplars of the complex interactions between climate change and inequities in child health. PMID:27417491

  11. Uncertainty assessment tool for climate change impact indicators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Juliane; Keup-Thiel, Elke; Jacob, Daniela; Rechid, Diana; Lückenkötter, Johannes; Juckes, Martin

    2015-04-01

    A major difficulty in the study of climate change impact indicators is dealing with the numerous sources of uncertainties of climate and non-climate data . Its assessment, however, is needed to communicate to users the degree of certainty of climate change impact indicators. This communication of uncertainty is an important component of the FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC). CLIPC is developing a portal to provide a central point of access for authoritative scientific information on climate change. In this project the Climate Service Center 2.0 is in charge of the development of a tool to assess the uncertainty of climate change impact indicators. The calculation of climate change impact indicators will include climate data from satellite and in-situ observations, climate models and re-analyses, and non-climate data. There is a lack of a systematic classification of uncertainties arising from the whole range of climate change impact indicators. We develop a framework that intends to clarify the potential sources of uncertainty of a given indicator and provides - if possible - solutions how to quantify the uncertainties. To structure the sources of uncertainties of climate change impact indicators, we first classify uncertainties along a 'cascade of uncertainty' (Reyer 2013). Our cascade consists of three levels which correspond to the CLIPC meta-classification of impact indicators: Tier-1 indicators are intended to give information on the climate system. Tier-2 indicators attempt to quantify the impacts of climate change on biophysical systems (i.e. flood risks). Tier-3 indicators primarily aim at providing information on the socio-economic systems affected by climate change. At each level, the potential sources of uncertainty of the input data sets and its processing will be discussed. Reference: Reyer, C. (2013): The cascade of uncertainty in modeling forest ecosystem responses to environmental change and the challenge of sustainable

  12. Congressional Briefing on Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landau, Elizabeth

    2010-01-01

    During an 8 January 2010 congressional briefing on climate change cosponsored by AGU, speakers discussed the impacts of climate change in the United States and the ability of society to cope with these impacts. More than 200 congressional and federal agency staff attended the briefing, which featured Michael MacCracken, chief scientist for climate change programs at the Climate Institute; Kristie Ebi, executive director of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group 2 Technical Support Unit; Katharine Jacobs, professor at the University of Arizona's Soil, Water and Environmental Science Department; and Susanne Moser, director and principal researcher at Susanne Moser Research and Consulting. The briefing was jointly sponsored by AGU, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, American Meteorological Society, Ecological Society of America, and Pew Center on Global Climate Change. For more information about AGU's science policy program, visit http://www.agu.org/sci_pol/.

  13. Climate Change Impacts on Worldwide Coffee Production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foreman, T.; Rising, J. A.

    2015-12-01

    Coffee (Coffea arabica and Coffea canephora) plays a vital role in many countries' economies, providing necessary income to 25 million members of tropical countries, and supporting a $81 billion industry, making it one of the most valuable commodities in the world. At the same time, coffee is at the center of many issues of sustainability. It is vulnerable to climate change, with disease outbreaks becoming more common and suitable regions beginning to shift. We develop a statistical production model for coffee which incorporates temperature, precipitation, frost, and humidity effects using a new database of worldwide coffee production. We then use this model to project coffee yields and production into the future based on a variety of climate forecasts. This model can then be used together with a market model to forecast the locations of future coffee production as well as future prices, supply, and demand.

  14. Projected impacts of climate change on salmon habitat restoration.

    PubMed

    Battin, James; Wiley, Matthew W; Ruckelshaus, Mary H; Palmer, Richard N; Korb, Elizabeth; Bartz, Krista K; Imaki, Hiroo

    2007-04-17

    Throughout the world, efforts are under way to restore watersheds, but restoration planning rarely accounts for future climate change. Using a series of linked models of climate, land cover, hydrology, and salmon population dynamics, we investigated the impacts of climate change on the effectiveness of proposed habitat restoration efforts designed to recover depleted Chinook salmon populations in a Pacific Northwest river basin. Model results indicate a large negative impact of climate change on freshwater salmon habitat. Habitat restoration and protection can help to mitigate these effects and may allow populations to increase in the face of climate change. The habitat deterioration associated with climate change will, however, make salmon recovery targets much more difficult to attain. Because the negative impacts of climate change in this basin are projected to be most pronounced in relatively pristine, high-elevation streams where little restoration is possible, climate change and habitat restoration together are likely to cause a spatial shift in salmon abundance. River basins that span the current snow line appear especially vulnerable to climate change, and salmon recovery plans that enhance lower-elevation habitats are likely to be more successful over the next 50 years than those that target the higher-elevation basins likely to experience the greatest snow-rain transition.

  15. Impact of climate change on waterborne diseases.

    PubMed

    Funari, Enzo; Manganelli, Maura; Sinisi, Luciana

    2012-01-01

    Change in climate and water cycle will challenge water availability but it will also increase the exposure to unsafe water. Floods, droughts, heavy storms, changes in rain pattern, increase of temperature and sea level, they all show an increasing trend worldwide and will affect biological, physical and chemical components of water through different paths thus enhancing the risk of waterborne diseases. This paper is intended, through reviewing the available literature, to highlight environmental changes and critical situations caused by floods, drought and warmer temperature that will lead to an increase of exposure to water related pathogens, chemical hazards and cyanotoxins. The final aim is provide knowledge-based elements for more focused adaptation measures.

  16. Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

    2013-12-01

    Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change

  17. Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian, Xiaohui; Sohngen, Brent; Kim, John B.; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2016-03-01

    This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, the MC2 model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase by approximately 30% over the century. Aboveground forest carbon storage also is projected to increase, by approximately 26 Pg C by 2115, as a result of climate change, potentially providing an offset to emissions from other sectors. The effects of climate mitigation policies in the energy sector are then examined. When climate mitigation in the energy sector reduces warming, we project a smaller increase in forest outputs over the timeframe of the analysis, and we project a reduction in the sink capacity of forests of around 12 Pg C by 2115.

  18. Climate change: impacts on and implications for global health.

    PubMed

    St Louis, Michael E; Hess, Jeremy J

    2008-11-01

    The most severe consequences of climate change will accrue to the poorest people in the poorest countries, despite their own negligible contribution to greenhouse gas emissions. In recent years, global health efforts in those same countries have grown dramatically. However, the emerging scientific consensus about climate change has not yet had much influence on the routine practice and strategies of global health. We review here the anticipated types and global distribution of health impacts of climate change, discuss relevant aspects of current global interventions for health in low-income countries, and consider potential elements of a framework for appropriately and efficiently mainstreaming global climate change-mitigation and -adaptation strategies into the ongoing enterprise of global health. We propose a collaborative learning initiative involving four areas: (1) increased awareness among current global health practitioners of climate change and its potential impacts for the most disadvantaged, (2) strengthening of the evidence base, (3) incorporation now of climate change-mitigation and -adaptation concerns into design of ongoing global health programs, and (4) alignment of current global health program targets and methods with larger frameworks for climate change and sustainable development. The great vulnerability to climate change of populations reached by current global health efforts should prompt all concerned with global health to take a leading role in advocating for climate change mitigation in their own countries.

  19. EPA in Action: Addressing Climate Change Impacts to Water Resources

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA takes actions to understand and react to the impacts of climate change in the water sector. Users can see Programs and Initiatives, Regional Actions, Planning and Management as well as Federal Collaborations happening throughout the Agency.

  20. Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine.

    PubMed

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Abernethy, Kirsten E; Smart, Richard E; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2016-11-01

    The cultivation of grapevines for winemaking, known as viticulture, is widely cited as a climate-sensitive agricultural system that has been used as an indicator of both historic and contemporary climate change. Numerous studies have questioned the viability of major viticulture regions under future climate projections. We review the methods used to study the impacts of climate change on viticulture in the light of what is known about the effects of climate and weather on the yields and quality of vineyard harvests. Many potential impacts of climate change on viticulture, particularly those associated with a change in climate variability or seasonal weather patterns, are rarely captured. Key biophysical characteristics of viticulture are often unaccounted for, including the variability of grapevine phenology and the exploitation of microclimatic niches that permit successful cultivation under suboptimal macroclimatic conditions. We consider how these same biophysical characteristics permit a variety of strategies by which viticulture can adapt to changing climatic conditions. The ability to realize these strategies, however, is affected by uneven exposure to risks across the winemaking sector, and the evolving capacity for decision-making within and across organizational boundaries. The role grape provenance plays in shaping perceptions of wine value and quality illustrates how conflicts of interest influence decisions about adaptive strategies within the industry. We conclude by considering what lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems.

  1. Climate Change Impact Assessments for International Market Systems (CLIMARK)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winkler, J. A.; Andresen, J.; Black, J.; Bujdoso, G.; Chmielewski, F.; Kirschke, D.; Kurlus, R.; Liszewska, M.; Loveridge, S.; Niedzwiedz, T.; Nizalov, D.; Rothwell, N.; Tan, P.; Ustrnul, Z.; von Witzke, H.; Zavalloni, C.; Zhao, J.; Zhong, S.

    2012-12-01

    The vast majority of climate change impact assessments evaluate how local or regional systems and processes may be affected by a future climate. Alternative strategies that extend beyond the local or regional scale are needed when assessing the potential impacts of climate change on international market systems, including agricultural commodities. These industries have multiple production regions that are distributed worldwide and are likely to be differentially impacted by climate change. Furthermore, for many industries and market systems, especially those with long-term climate-dependent investments, temporal dynamics need to be incorporated into the assessment process, including changing patterns of international trade, consumption and production, and evolving adaptation strategies by industry stakeholder groups. A framework for conducting climate change assessments for international market systems, developed as part of the CLIMARK (Climate Change and International Markets) project is outlined, and progress toward applying the framework for an impact assessment for the international tart cherry industry is described. The tart cherry industry was selected for analysis in part because tart cherries are a perennial crop requiring long-term investments by the producer. Components of the project include the preparation of fine resolution climate scenarios, evaluation of phenological models for diverse production regions, the development of a yield model for tart cherry production, new methods for incorporating individual decision making and adaptation options into impact assessments, and modification of international trade models for use in impact studies. Innovative aspects of the project include linkages between model components and evaluation of the mega-uncertainty surrounding the assessment outcomes. Incorporation of spatial and temporal dynamics provides a more comprehensive evaluation of climate change impacts and an assessment product of potentially greater

  2. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, National Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wehner, M. F.

    2009-12-01

    The second Key Finding from the recent USGRP report “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States” is: 2. Climate changes are underway in the United States and are projected to grow. Climate-related changes are already observed in the United States and its coastal waters. These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons, lengthening ice-free seasons in the ocean and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt, and alterations in river flows. These changes are projected to grow. The Key Findings are based on a combination of observational, theoretical and model based analyses and are a consensus opinion of the report’s Lead Author team. The model based projections of future climate used in the report will be detailed. A discussion of the source and magnitudes of uncertainties in these projections will also be presented.

  3. Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with ...

  4. Assessing ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate.

    PubMed

    Knowlton, Kim; Rosenthal, Joyce E; Hogrefe, Christian; Lynn, Barry; Gaffin, Stuart; Goldberg, Richard; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Civerolo, Kevin; Ku, Jia-Yeong; Kinney, Patrick L

    2004-11-01

    Climate change may increase the frequency and intensity of ozone episodes in future summers in the United States. However, only recently have models become available that can assess the impact of climate change on O3 concentrations and health effects at regional and local scales that are relevant to adaptive planning. We developed and applied an integrated modeling framework to assess potential O3-related health impacts in future decades under a changing climate. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration-Goddard Institute for Space Studies global climate model at 4 degrees x 5 degrees resolution was linked to the Penn State/National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model 5 and the Community Multiscale Air Quality atmospheric chemistry model at 36 km horizontal grid resolution to simulate hourly regional meteorology and O3 in five summers of the 2050s decade across the 31-county New York metropolitan region. We assessed changes in O3-related impacts on summer mortality resulting from climate change alone and with climate change superimposed on changes in O3 precursor emissions and population growth. Considering climate change alone, there was a median 4.5% increase in O3-related acute mortality across the 31 counties. Incorporating O3 precursor emission increases along with climate change yielded similar results. When population growth was factored into the projections, absolute impacts increased substantially. Counties with the highest percent increases in projected O3 mortality spread beyond the urban core into less densely populated suburban counties. This modeling framework provides a potentially useful new tool for assessing the health risks of climate change.

  5. Predicting the Impacts of Climate Change on Central American Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winter, J. M.; Ruane, A. C.; Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    Agriculture is a vital component of Central America's economy. Poor crop yields and harvest reliability can produce food insecurity, malnutrition, and conflict. Regional climate models (RCMs) and agricultural models have the potential to greatly enhance the efficiency of Central American agriculture and water resources management under both current and future climates. A series of numerical experiments was conducted using Regional Climate Model Version 3 (RegCM3) and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) to evaluate the ability of RCMs to reproduce the current climate of Central America and assess changes in temperature and precipitation under multiple future climate scenarios. Control simulations were thoroughly compared to a variety of observational datasets, including local weather station data, gridded meteorological data, and high-resolution satellite-based precipitation products. Future climate simulations were analyzed for both mean shifts in climate and changes in climate variability, including extreme events (droughts, heat waves, floods). To explore the impacts of changing climate on maize, bean, and rice yields in Central America, RCM output was used to force the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer Model (DSSAT). These results were synthesized to create climate change impacts predictions for Central American agriculture that explicitly account for evolving distributions of precipitation and temperature extremes.

  6. The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

    PubMed

    Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

    2006-02-01

    Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

  7. Regional Scale Analyses of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolfe, D. W.; Hayhoe, K.

    2006-12-01

    New statistically downscaled climate modeling techniques provide an opportunity for improved regional analysis of climate change impacts on agriculture. Climate modeling outputs can often simultaneously meet the needs of those studying impacts on natural as well as managed ecosystems. Climate outputs can be used to drive existing forest or crop models, or livestock models (e.g., temperature-humidity index model predicting dairy milk production) for improved information on regional impact. High spatial resolution climate forecasts, combined with knowledge of seasonal temperatures or rainfall constraining species ranges, can be used to predict shifts in suitable habitat for invasive weeds, insects, and pathogens, as well as cash crops. Examples of climate thresholds affecting species range and species composition include: minimum winter temperature, duration of winter chilling (vernalization) hours (e.g., hours below 7.2 C), frost-free period, and frequency of high temperature stress days in summer. High resolution climate outputs can also be used to drive existing integrated pest management models predicting crop insect and disease pressure. Collectively, these analyses can be used to test hypotheses or provide insight into the impact of future climate change scenarios on species range shifts and threat from invasives, shifts in crop production zones, and timing and regional variation in economic impacts.

  8. Climate Change and Food Security: Health Impacts in Developed Countries

    PubMed Central

    Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R.; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. Objectives: We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Methods: Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Results: Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Conclusions: Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate

  9. Climate change impacts on crop yield: evidence from China.

    PubMed

    Wei, Taoyuan; Cherry, Todd L; Glomrød, Solveig; Zhang, Tianyi

    2014-11-15

    When estimating climate change impact on crop yield, a typical assumption is constant elasticity of yield with respect to a climate variable even though the elasticity may be inconstant. After estimating both constant and inconstant elasticities with respect to temperature and precipitation based on provincial panel data in China 1980-2008, our results show that during that period, the temperature change contributes positively to total yield growth by 1.3% and 0.4% for wheat and rice, respectively, but negatively by 12% for maize. The impacts of precipitation change are marginal. We also compare our estimates with other studies and highlight the implications of the inconstant elasticities for crop yield, harvest and food security. We conclude that climate change impact on crop yield would not be an issue in China if positive impacts of other socio-economic factors continue in the future.

  10. Arctic Cities and Climate Change: A Geographic Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shiklomanov, N. I.; Streletskiy, D. A.

    2014-12-01

    Arctic climate change is a concern for the engineering community, land-use planners and policy makers as it may have significant impacts on socio-economic development and human activities in the northern regions. A warmer climate has potential for a series of positive economic effects, such as development of maritime transportation, enhanced agricultural production and decrease in energy consumption. However, these potential benefits may be outwaited by negative impacts related to transportation accessibility and stability of existing infrastructure, especially in permafrost regions. Compared with the Arctic zones of other countries, the Russian Arctic is characterized by higher population, greater industrial development and urbanization. Arctic urban areas and associated industrial sites are the location of some of intense interaction between man and nature. However, while there is considerable research on various aspects of Arctic climate change impacts on human society, few address effects on Arctic cities and their related industries. This presentation overviews potential climate-change impacts on Russian urban environments in the Arctic and discusses methodology for addressing complex interactions between climatic, permafrost and socio-economic systems at the range of geographical scales. We also provide a geographic assessment of selected positive and negative climate change impacts affecting several diverse Russian Arctic cities.

  11. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulwarty, R.

    2009-12-01

    Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The

  12. Assessment of the health impacts of climate change in Kiribati.

    PubMed

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-05-14

    Kiribati-a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation-is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health.

  13. Assessment of the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Kiribati

    PubMed Central

    McIver, Lachlan; Woodward, Alistair; Davies, Seren; Tibwe, Tebikau; Iddings, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Kiribati—a low-lying, resource-poor Pacific atoll nation—is one of the most vulnerable countries in the World to the impacts of climate change, including the likely detrimental effects on human health. We describe the preparation of a climate change and health adaptation plan for Kiribati carried out by the World Health Organization and the Kiribati Ministry of Health and Medical Services, including an assessment of risks to health, sources of vulnerability and suggestions for highest priority adaptation responses. This paper identifies advantages and disadvantages in the process that was followed, lays out a future direction of climate change and health adaptation work in Kiribati, and proposes lessons that may be applicable to other small, developing island nations as they prepare for and adapt to the impacts of climate change on health. PMID:24830452

  14. Workshop on the Impacts of Aviation on Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuebbles, D. J.; Gupta, M.; Ko, M.

    2006-12-01

    Projections indicate that demand for aviation transportation will increase by more than two fold over the next few decades. Timely action is needed to understand and quantify the potential climate impacts of aviation emissions particularly given the sustained lapse over the last several years in U.S. research activities in this area. In response to the stated needs, Environmental Integrated Product Team of Next Generation Air Transportation System/Joint Planning and Development Office and PARTNER (Partnership for AiR Transportation Noise and Emissions Reduction, FAA/NASA/Transport Canada sponsored Center of Excellence) convened a group of international experts to participate in the "Workshop on the Impacts of Aviation on Climate Change" during June 7-9, 2006 in Boston, MA. The workshop focus was on the impacts of subsonic aircraft emissions in the UT/LS region and on the potential response of the climate system. The goals of the workshop were to assess and document the present state of scientific knowledge, to identify the key underlying uncertainties and gaps, to identify ongoing and further research needed, to explore the development of climate impact metrics, and to help focus the scientific community on the aviation-climate change research needs. The workshop concluded that the major ways that aviation can affect climate, in agreement with the 1999 assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are the direct climate effects from CO2 and water vapor emissions, the indirect forcing on climate resulting from changes in the distributions and concentrations of ozone and methane as a primary consequence of aircraft nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, the direct effects (and indirect effects on clouds) from emitted aerosols and aerosol precursors, and the climate effects associated with contrails and cirrus cloud formation. The workshop was organized in three subgroups: (1) Effects of aircraft emissions on the UT/LS chemical composition, (2) Effects

  15. Workshop on the Impacts of Aviation on Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wuebbles, Don; Gupta, Mohan; Ko, Malcolm

    2006-01-01

    Projections indicate that demand for aviation transportation will increase by more than two fold over the next few decades. Timely action is needed to understand and quantify the potential climate impacts of aviation emissions particularly given the sustained lapse over the last several years in U.S. research activities in this area. In response to the stated needs, a group of international experts participated in the Workshop on the Impacts of Aviation on Climate Change during June 7-9, 2006 in Boston, MA. The workshop focus was on the impacts of subsonic aircraft emissions in the UT/LS region and on the potential response of the climate system. The goals of the workshop were to assess and document the present state of scientific knowledge, to identify the key underlying uncertainties and gaps, to identify ongoing and further research needed, to explore the development of climate impact metrics, and to help focus the scientific community on the aviation-climate change research needs. The workshop concluded that the major ways that aviation can affect climate, in agreement with the 1999 assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), are the direct climate effects from CO2 and water vapor emissions, the indirect forcing on climate resulting from changes in the distributions and concentrations of ozone and methane as a primary consequence of aircraft nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, the direct effects (and indirect effects on clouds) from emitted aerosols and aerosol precursors, and the climate effects associated with contrails and cirrus cloud formation. The workshop was organized in three subgroups: (1) Effects of aircraft emissions on the UT/LS chemical composition, (2) Effects of water and particle emissions on contrails and on cirrus clouds, and (3) Impacts on climate from aircraft emissions and identification of suitable metrics to measure these impacts. The workshop participants acknowledged the need for focused research specifically to

  16. Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

  17. Climate change in the oceans: Human impacts and responses.

    PubMed

    Allison, Edward H; Bassett, Hannah R

    2015-11-13

    Although it has far-reaching consequences for humanity, attention to climate change impacts on the ocean lags behind concern for impacts on the atmosphere and land. Understanding these impacts, as well as society's diverse perspectives and multiscale responses to the changing oceans, requires a correspondingly diverse body of scholarship in the physical, biological, and social sciences and humanities. This can ensure that a plurality of values and viewpoints is reflected in the research that informs climate policy and may enable the concerns of maritime societies and economic sectors to be heard in key adaptation and mitigation discussions.

  18. Public health responses to climate change health impacts in Indonesia.

    PubMed

    Wirawan, I Made Ady

    2010-01-01

    Although climate change is a global concern, there are particular considerations for Indonesia as an archipelagic nation. These include the vulnerability of people living in small islands and coastal areas to rising sea levels; the expansion of the important mosquito-borne diseases, particularly malaria and dengue, into areas that lack of immunity; and the increase in water-borne diseases and malnutrition. This article proposes a set of public health responses to climate change health impacts in Indonesia. Some important principles and practices in public health are highlighted, to develop effective public health approaches to climate change in Indonesia.

  19. Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Implications of Global Climate Stabilization

    EPA Science Inventory

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. Although there have been n...

  20. Climate Change Impacts on Migration in the Vulnerable Countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Nazan; Incealtin, Gamze; Kurnaz, M. Levent; Şengün Ucal, Meltem

    2014-05-01

    This work focuses on the economic, demographic and environmental drivers of migration related with the sustainable development in underdeveloped and developed countries, which are the most vulnerable to the climate change impacts through the Climate-Development Modeling including climate modeling and panel logit data analysis. We have studied some countries namely Bangladesh, Netherlands, Morocco, Malaysia, Ethiopia and Bolivia. We have analyzed these countries according to their economic, demographic and environmental indicators related with the determinants of migration, and we tried to indicate that their conditions differ according to all these factors concerning with the climate change impacts. This modeling covers some explanatory variables, which have the relationship with the migration, including GDP per capita, population, temperature and precipitation, which indicate the seasonal differences according to the years, the occurrence of natural hazards over the years, coastal location of countries, permanent cropland areas and fish capture which represents the amount of capturing over the years. We analyzed that whether there is a relationship between the migration and these explanatory variables. In order to achieve sustainable development by preventing or decreasing environmental migration due to climate change impacts or related other factors, these countries need to maintain economic, social, political, demographic, and in particular environmental performance. There are some significant risks stemming from climate change, which is not under control. When the economic and environmental conditions are considered, we have to regard climate change to be the more destructive force for those who are less defensible against all of these risks and impacts of uncontrolled climate change. This work was supported by the BU Research Fund under the project number 6990. One of the authors (MLK) was partially supported by Mercator-IPC Fellowship Program.

  1. Impacts of Climate Change on the Climate Extremes of the Middle East

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turp, M. Tufan; Collu, Kamil; Deler, F. Busra; Ozturk, Tugba; Kurnaz, M. Levent

    2016-04-01

    The Middle East is one of the most vulnerable regions to the impacts of climate change. Because of the importance of the region and its vulnerability to global climate change, the studies including the investigation of projected changes in the climate of the Middle East play a crucial role in order to struggle with the negative effects of climate change. This research points out the relationship between the climate change and climate extremes indices in the Middle East and it investigates the changes in the number of extreme events as described by the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team (ET) on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). As part of the study, the regional climate model (RegCM4.4) of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) is run to obtain future projection data. This research has been supported by Boǧaziçi University Research Fund Grant Number 10421.

  2. Climate Change Impacts on Crop Production in Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2011-12-01

    The agricultural sector in Nigeria is particularly important for the country's food security, natural resources, and growth agenda. The cultivable areas comprise more than 70% of the total area; however, the cultivated area is about the 35% of the total area. The most important components in the food basket of the nation are cereals and tubers, which include rice, maize, corn, millet, sorghum, yam, and cassava. These crops represent about 80% of the total agricultural product in Nigeria (from NPAFS). The major crops grown in the country can be divided into food crops (produced for consumption) and export products. Despite the importance of the export crops, the primary policy of agriculture is to make Nigeria self-sufficient in its food and fiber requirements. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture and water resources are expected to be adverse and extensive in these area. This implies the need for actions and measures to adapt to climate change impacts, and especially as they affect agriculture, the primary sector for Nigerian economy. In the framework of the Project Climate Risk Analysis in Nigeria (founded by World Bank Contract n.7157826), a study was made to assess the potential impact of climate change on the main crops that characterize Nigerian agriculture. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that simulate physiological processes of crop growth, development and production by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were calibrated to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output was "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models to have

  3. Adapting to Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region: The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vimont, D.; Liebl, D.

    2012-12-01

    The mission of the Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI; http://www.wicci.wisc.edu) is to assess the impacts of climate change on Wisconsin's natural, human, and built environments; and to assist in developing, recommending, and implementing climate adaptation strategies in Wisconsin. WICCI originated in 2007 as a partnership between the University of Wisconsin Nelson Institute and the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, and has since grown to include numerous other state, public, and private institutions. In 2011, WICCI released its First Assessment Report, which documents the efforts of over 200 individuals around the state in assessing vulnerability and estimating the risk that regional climate change poses to Wisconsin. The success of WICCI as an organization can be traced to its existence as a partnership between academic and state institutions, and as a boundary organization that catalyzes cross-disciplinary efforts between science and policy. WICCI's organizational structure and its past success at assessing climate impacts in Wisconsin will be briefly discussed. As WICCI moves into its second phase, it is increasing its emphasis on the second part of its mission: development, and implementation of adaptation strategies. Towards these goals WICCI has expanded its organizational structure to include a Communications and Outreach Committee that further ensures a necessary two-way communication of information between stakeholders / decision makers, and scientific efforts. WICCI is also increasing its focus on place-based efforts that include climate change information as one part of an integrated effort at sustainable development. The talk will include a discussion of current outreach and education efforts, as well as future directions for WICCI efforts.

  4. Impacts of Climate and UV Change on Arctic Freshwater Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wrona, F. J.; Prowse, T. D.; Reist, J. D.

    2004-05-01

    An overview is provided of the key findings of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), which is an international project of the Arctic Council and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), to evaluate and synthesize knowledge on climate variability, climate change, and increased ultraviolet radiation and their consequences. Predicted changes in climate and UV in the Arctic are expected to have far-reaching impacts on the hydrology and ecology of freshwater ecosystems. Key effects include changes in the distribution, abundance and ecology of aquatic species in various trophic levels, dramatic alterations in the physical environment that makes up their habitat, changes to the chemical properties of that environment, and alterations to the processes that act on and within freshwater ecosystems. Interactions of climatic variables, such as temperature and precipitation, with freshwater ecosystems are highly complex and hence can be propagated through ecosystems in ways that are often difficult to predict. This is partly because of our still relatively poor understanding of the structure and function of arctic freshwater systems and their basic interrelationships with climate and other environmental variables, as well as by a paucity of long-term freshwater monitoring sites and integrated hydro-ecological research programs in the Arctic. Predictions of hydro-ecological impacts are further complicated by synergistic and cumulative effects.

  5. Health care facilities resilient to climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Paterson, Jaclyn; Berry, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Varangu, Linda

    2014-12-01

    Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator's guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change.

  6. Health Care Facilities Resilient to Climate Change Impacts

    PubMed Central

    Paterson, Jaclyn; Berry, Peter; Ebi, Kristie; Varangu, Linda

    2014-01-01

    Climate change will increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events and create risks that will impact health care facilities. Health care facilities will need to assess climate change risks and adopt adaptive management strategies to be resilient, but guidance tools are lacking. In this study, a toolkit was developed for health care facility officials to assess the resiliency of their facility to climate change impacts. A mixed methods approach was used to develop climate change resiliency indicators to inform the development of the toolkit. The toolkit consists of a checklist for officials who work in areas of emergency management, facilities management and health care services and supply chain management, a facilitator’s guide for administering the checklist, and a resource guidebook to inform adaptation. Six health care facilities representing three provinces in Canada piloted the checklist. Senior level officials with expertise in the aforementioned areas were invited to review the checklist, provide feedback during qualitative interviews and review the final toolkit at a stakeholder workshop. The toolkit helps health care facility officials identify gaps in climate change preparedness, direct allocation of adaptation resources and inform strategic planning to increase resiliency to climate change. PMID:25522050

  7. Workshop: Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Research on Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (part 2)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This is a workshop titled Improving the Assessment and Valuation of Climate Change Impacts for Policy and Regulatory Analysis: Research on Climate Change Impacts and Associated Economic Damages (part 2)

  8. Potential Impacts of Climatic Change on European Breeding Birds

    PubMed Central

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Willis, Stephen G.; Green, Rhys E.

    2008-01-01

    Background Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions. Methodology/Principal Findings For six climate scenarios for 2070–99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258–882 km in a direction between 341° (NNW) and 45° (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72–89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31–53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50×50 km grid square would decrease by 6·8–23·2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change. Conclusions/Significance Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here. PMID:18197250

  9. Climate change impacts on forest fires: the stakeholders' perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Roussos, A.; Karali, A.; Hatzaki, M.; Xanthopoulos, G.; Chatzinikos, E.; Fyllas, N.; Georgiades, N.; Karetsos, G.; Maheras, G.; Nikolaou, I.; Proutsos, N.; Sbarounis, T.; Tsaggari, K.; Tzamtzis, I.; Goodess, C.

    2012-04-01

    In this work, we present a synthesis of the presentations and discussions which arose during a workshop on 'Impacts of climate change on forest fires' held in September 2011 at the National Observatory of Athens, Greece in the framework of EU project CLIMRUN. At first, a general presentation about climate change and extremes in the Greek territory provided the necessary background to the audience and highlighted the need for data and information exchange between scientists and stakeholders through climate services within CLIMRUN. Discussions and presentations that followed linked climate with forest science through the use of a meteorological index for fire risk and future projections of fire danger using regional climate models. The current situation on Greek forests was also presented, as well as future steps that should be taken to ameliorate the situation under a climate change world. A time series analysis of changes in forest fires using available historical data on forest ecosystems in Greece was given in this session. This led to the topic of forest fire risk assessment and fire prevention, stating all actions towards sustainable management of forests and effective mechanisms to control fires under climate change. Options for a smooth adaptation of forests to climate change were discussed together with the lessons learned on practical level on prevention, repression and rehabilitation of forest fires. In between there were useful interventions on sustainable hunting and biodiversity protection and on climate change impacts on forest ecosystems dynamics. The importance of developing an educational program for primary/secondary school students on forest fire management was also highlighted. The perspective of forest stakeholders on climate change and how this change can affect their current or future activities was addressed through a questionnaire they were asked to complete. Results showed that the majority of the participants consider climate variability

  10. Impacts of climate change on marine organisms and ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Brierley, Andrew S; Kingsford, Michael J

    2009-07-28

    Human activities are releasing gigatonnes of carbon to the Earth's atmosphere annually. Direct consequences of cumulative post-industrial emissions include increasing global temperature, perturbed regional weather patterns, rising sea levels, acidifying oceans, changed nutrient loads and altered ocean circulation. These and other physical consequences are affecting marine biological processes from genes to ecosystems, over scales from rock pools to ocean basins, impacting ecosystem services and threatening human food security. The rates of physical change are unprecedented in some cases. Biological change is likely to be commensurately quick, although the resistance and resilience of organisms and ecosystems is highly variable. Biological changes founded in physiological response manifest as species range-changes, invasions and extinctions, and ecosystem regime shifts. Given the essential roles that oceans play in planetary function and provision of human sustenance, the grand challenge is to intervene before more tipping points are passed and marine ecosystems follow less-buffered terrestrial systems further down a spiral of decline. Although ocean bioengineering may alleviate change, this is not without risk. The principal brake to climate change remains reduced CO(2) emissions that marine scientists and custodians of the marine environment can lobby for and contribute to. This review describes present-day climate change, setting it in context with historical change, considers consequences of climate change for marine biological processes now and in to the future, and discusses contributions that marine systems could play in mitigating the impacts of global climate change.

  11. Climate change impacts on groundwater and dependent ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kløve, Bjørn; Ala-Aho, Pertti; Bertrand, Guillaume; Gurdak, Jason J.; Kupfersberger, Hans; Kværner, Jens; Muotka, Timo; Mykrä, Heikki; Preda, Elena; Rossi, Pekka; Uvo, Cintia Bertacchi; Velasco, Elzie; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

    2014-10-01

    Aquifers and groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) are facing increasing pressure from water consumption, irrigation and climate change. These pressures modify groundwater levels and their temporal patterns and threaten vital ecosystem services such as arable land irrigation and ecosystem water requirements, especially during droughts. This review examines climate change effects on groundwater and dependent ecosystems. The mechanisms affecting natural variability in the global climate and the consequences of climate and land use changes due to anthropogenic influences are summarised based on studies from different hydrogeological strata and climate zones. The impacts on ecosystems are discussed based on current findings on factors influencing the biodiversity and functioning of aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. The influence of changes to groundwater on GDE biodiversity and future threats posed by climate change is reviewed, using information mainly from surface water studies and knowledge of aquifer and groundwater ecosystems. Several gaps in research are identified. Due to lack of understanding of several key processes, the uncertainty associated with management techniques such as numerical modelling is high. The possibilities and roles of new methodologies such as indicators and modelling methods are discussed in the context of integrated groundwater resources management. Examples are provided of management impacts on groundwater, with recommendations on sustainable management of groundwater.

  12. Cost Analysis of Water Transport for Climate Change Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szaleniec, V.; Buytaert, W.

    2012-04-01

    It is expected that climate change will have a strong impact on water resources worldwide. Many studies exist that couple the output of global climate models with hydrological models to assess the impact of climate change on physical water availability. However, the water resources topology of many regions and especially that of cities can be very complex. Changes in physical water availability do therefore not translate easily into impacts on water resources for cities. This is especially the case for cities with a complex water supply topology, for instance because of geographical barriers, strong gradients in precipitation patterns, or competing water uses. In this study we explore the use of cost maps to enable the inclusion of water supply topologies in climate change impact studies. We use the city of Lima as a case study. Lima is the second largest desert city in the world. Although Peru as a whole has no water shortage, extreme gradients exist. Most of the economic activities including the city of Lima are located in the coastal desert. This region is geographically disconnected from the wet Amazon basin because of the Andes mountain range. Hence, water supply is precarious, provided by a complex combination of high mountain ecosystems including wetlands and glaciers, as well as groundwater aquifers depending on recharge from the mountains. We investigate the feasibility and costs of different water abstraction scenarios and the impact of climate change using cost functions for different resources. The option of building inter basins tunnels across the Andes is compared to the costs of desalinating seawater from the Pacific Ocean under different climate change scenarios and population growth scenarios. This approach yields recommendations for the most cost-effective options for the future.

  13. Impact-Induced Climate Change on Titan

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zahnle, Kevin; Korycansky, Donald

    2012-01-01

    Titan's thick atmosphere and volatile surface cause it to respond to big impacts like the one that produced the prominent Menrva impact basin in a somewhat Earth-like manner. Menrva was big enough to raise the surface temperature by 100 K. If methane in the regolith is generally as abundant as it was at the Huygens landing site, Menrva would have been big enough to double the amount of methane in the atmosphere. The extra methane would have drizzled out of the atmosphere over hundreds of years. Conditions may have been favorable for clathrating volatiles such as ethane. Impacts can also create local crater lakes set in warm ice but these quickly sink below the warm ice; whether the cryptic waters quickly freeze by mixing with the ice crust or whether they long endure under the ice remains a open question. Bigger impacts can create shallow liquid water oceans at the surface. If Titan's crust is made of water ice, the putative Hotei impact (a possible 800-1200 km diameter basin, Soderblom et al 2009) would have raised the average surface temperature to 350-400 K. Water rain would have fallen and global meltwaters would have averaged 50 m to as much as 500 m deep. The meltwaters may not have lasted more than a few decades or centuries at most, but are interesting to consider given Titan's organic wealth.

  14. The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare

    PubMed Central

    Shields, Sara; Orme-Evans, Geoffrey

    2015-01-01

    Simple Summary Climate change is probably the most important environmental issue of our time. Raising animals for food contributes to the production of greenhouse gases implicated in the global warming that is causing climate change. To combat this ecological disaster, a number of mitigation strategies involving changes to agricultural practices have been proposed. However, some of these changes will impact the welfare of farmed animals. This paper reviews selected climate change mitigation strategies and explains how different approaches could have negative or positive effects. Abstract The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture. PMID:26479240

  15. Potential climatic impacts of vegetation change: A regional modeling study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Copeland, J.H.; Pielke, R.A.; Kittel, T.G.F.

    1996-01-01

    The human species has been modifying the landscape long before the development of modern agrarian techniques. Much of the land area of the conterminous United States is currently used for agricultural production. In certain regions this change in vegetative cover from its natural state may have led to local climatic change. A regional climate version of the Colorado State University Regional Atmospheric Modeling System was used to assess the impact of a natural versus current vegetation distribution on the weather and climate of July 1989. The results indicate that coherent regions of substantial changes, of both positive and negative sign, in screen height temperature, humidity, wind speed, and precipitation are a possible consequence of land use change throughout the United States. The simulated changes in the screen height quantities were closely related to changes in the vegetation parameters of albedo, roughness length, leaf area index, and fractional coverage. Copyright 1996 by the American Geophysical Union.

  16. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karl, T. R.

    2009-12-01

    This past year the US Global Change Research Program released a report that summarized the science of climate change and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. The report underscores the importance of measures to reduce climate change. In the context of impacts, the report identifies examples of actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change. This state-of-knowledge report also identifies areas in which scientific uncertainty limits our ability to estimate future climate changes and its impacts. Key findings of the report include: (1) Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human induced. - This statement is stronger than the IPCC (2007) statement because new attribution studies since that report continue to implicate human caused changes over the past 50 years. (2) Climate Changes are underway in the Unites States and are projected to grow. - These include increases in heavy downpours, rising temperature and sea level, rapidly retreating glaciers, thawing permafrost, lengthening growing seasons lengthening ice-free seasons in the oceans and on lakes and rivers, earlier snowmelt and alteration in river flows. (3) Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. - The impacts vary from region to region, but are already affecting many sectors e.g., water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, etc. (4) Climate change will stress water resources. - Water is an issue in every region of the US, but the nature of the impacts vary (5) Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. - Warming related to high emission scenarios often negatively affect crop growth and yields levels. Increased pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crops and livestock production. (6) Coastal areas are at increased risk from

  17. In Brief: U.S. regional impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2007-12-01

    On 4 December, the Pew Center on Global Climate Change released a report that assesses climate vulnerabilities in four different areas of the United States. ``Regional impacts of climate change: Four case studies in the United States'' notes that midwestern cities are likely to experience more frequent, longer, and hotter heat waves; that wildfires are likely to increase in the U.S. West; that sustaining fragile Gulf Coast wetlands ecosystems will be increasingly difficult due to climate change; and that the Chesapeake Bay may respond to climate change with more frequent and larger hypoxia events. The report indicates that adaptation measures need to be a critical component of any long-term U.S. climate strategy. ``The degree to which we can adapt to the consequences of climate change will be determined in large part by the policies and management practices we put in place today,'' said Pew Center president Eileen Claussen. For more information, visit the Web site: http://www.pewclimate.org.

  18. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayhoe, K.; Cayan, D.; Field, C.B.; Frumhoff, P.C.; Maurer, E.P.; Miller, N.L.; Moser, S.C.; Schneider, S.H.; Cahill, K.N.; Cleland, E.E.; Dale, L.; Drapek, R.; Hanemann, R.M.; Kalkstein, L.S.; Lenihan, J.; Lunch, C.K.; Neilson, R.P.; Sheridan, S.C.; Verville, J.H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90%; and snowpack declines 73-90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

  19. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    SciTech Connect

    Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

    2004-06-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50-75 percent; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30-70 percent. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75-90 percent; and snowpack declines 73-90 percent, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades.

  20. Climate Change Impacts of Irrigation on the Central High Plains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cotterman, K. A.; Kendall, A. D.; Basso, B.; Hyndman, D. W.

    2015-12-01

    Since the 1940s, the High Plains Aquifer (HPA) has been pivotal for irrigation over the Central High Plains (CHP), a region spanning parts of five states in the central U.S.. Today after decades of over-pumping, many areas of the CHP are no longer able to irrigate due to localized depletion of the HPA. With a range of global climate models predicting an increase in temperature and decrease in growing-season precipitation for the CHP, demand for irrigation is likely to increase and exacerbate drawdown and depletion of the aquifer. Here we apply the Landscape Hydrology Model (LHM) coupled with the crop simulation model SALUS to simulate irrigation water use in response to historical climate and land use. This model is validated using historical groundwater levels. We then simulate future climate scenarios to predict how irrigation demand and water availability will alter the hydrology of the CHP. This study provides a predictive relationship of future irrigation demand linked to both climate change and agricultural management, and presents a modeling approach to answer two questions: How will future climate change affect irrigation demand? How will climate change and irrigation demand affect groundwater availability for the future? Different climate scenarios based on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to simulate the impact of different projected future climate conditions through the year 2100. By examining predicted groundwater levels along with saturated thickness we analyze where irrigation is likely to be viable in the future and compare this to current irrigation extent.

  1. North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP): Producing Regional Climate Change Projections for Climate Impacts Studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arritt, R. W.; Mearns, L.; Anderson, C.; Bader, D.; Buonomo, E.; Caya, D.; Duffy, P.; Elguindi, N.; Giorgi, F.; Gutowski, W.; Held, I.; Nunes, A.; Jones, R.; Laprise, R.; Leung, L. R.; Middleton, D.; Moufouma-Okia, W.; Nychka, D.; Qian, Y.; Roads, J.; Sain, S.; Snyder, M.; Sloan, L.; Takle, E.

    2006-12-01

    The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) is constructing projections of regional climate change over the coterminous United States and Canada in order to provide climate change information at decision relevant scales. A major goal of NARCCAP is to estimate uncertainties in regional scale projections of future climate by using multiple regional climate models (RCMs) nested within multiple atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs). NARCCAP is using six nested regional climate models at 50 km resolution to dynamically downscale realizations of current climate (1971-2000) and future climate (2041-2070, following the A2 SRES emission scenario) from four AOGCMs. Global time slice simulations, also at 50 km resolution, will be performed using the GFDL AM2.1 and NCAR CAM3 atmospheric models forced by the AOGCM sea surface temperatures and will be compared with results of the regional models. Results from this multiple-RCM, multiple-AOGCM suite will be statistically analyzed to investigate the cascade of uncertainty as one type of model draws information from another. All output will be made available to the climate analysis and climate impacts assessment communities through an archiving and data distribution plan. The climate impacts community will have these data at unprecedented spatial and temporal (hourly to six-hourly) resolution to support decision-relevant evaluations for public policy. As part of our evaluation of uncertainties, simulations are presently being concluded that nest the participating RCMs within reanalyses of observations. These simulations can be viewed as nesting the RCMs within a GCM that is nearly perfect (constrained by available observations), allowing us to separate errors attributable to the RCMs from those attributable to the driving AOGCMs. Results to date indicate that skill is greater in winter than in summer, and greater for temperature than for precipitation. Temperature and precipitation errors

  2. Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk

    SciTech Connect

    Martens, W.J.M.; Rotmans, J. |; Niessen, L.W.; Jetten, T.H.; McMichael, A.J.

    1995-05-01

    The biological activity and geographic distribution of the malarial parasite and its vector are sensitive to climatic influences, especially temperature and precipitation. We have incorporated General Circulation Model-based scenarios of anthropogenic global climate change in an integrated linked-system model for predicting changes in malaria epidemic potential in the next century. The concept of the disability-adjusted life years is included to arrive at a single measure of the effect of anthropogenic climate change on the health impact of malaria. Assessment of the potential impact of global climate change on the incidence of malaria suggests a widespread increase of risk due to expansion of the areas suitable for malaria transmission. This predicted increase is most pronounced at the borders of endemic malaria areas and at higher altitudes within malarial areas. The incidence of infection is sensitive to climate changes in areas of Southeast Asia, South America, and parts of Africa where the disease is less endemic; in these regions the numbers of years of healthy life lost may increase significantly. However, the simulated changes in malaria risk must be interpreted on the basis of local environmental conditions, the effects of socioeconomic developments, and malaria control programs or capabilities. 33 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  3. Climate change impacts and adaptation in the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    The University of Washington Climate Impacts Group (CIG) is an interdisciplinary research group that studies the impacts of natural climate variability and change on the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Through research and interaction with regional stakeholders, the CIG works to increase the resilience of the Pacific Northwest to fluctuations and long-term changes in climate. The CIG's research focuses on four key sectors of the PNW environment: water resources, aquatic ecosystems, forests, and coasts. This talk focuses specifically on the water resources sector of CIG, and its work addressing potential climate change impacts on the region's hydrology being undertaken under an ongoing statewide climate impacts assessment (known as HB 1303). In the Pacific Northwest, as in most of the western U.S., warming temperatures are expected to result in lower winter snowpack, thus shifting seasonal runoff peaks earlier in the year, and increasing the duration of the summer and fall low flow period. The ongoing HB1303 work is based on IPCC 2007 climate scenarios. Hydrologic scenarios have been generated by downscaling GCM scenarios to 1/16 degree latitude-longitude spatial resolution, and using these downscaled scenarios to force the macroscale Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. We describe the range of hydrologic projections recently performed for 16 downscaled GCMs and 2 global emissions scenarios for the next 100 years, with particular attention on reservoir systems serving water supply needs in the Puget Sound basin and irrigation water in the Yakima River basin. We also evaluate implications of the changing climate for the Columbia River reservoir system, both in terms of the tradeoff between reservoir releases made for salmonid protection and restoration and hydropower generation, and for flood control.

  4. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from 32.7 billion to 54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  5. Climate change impacts on US agriculture and forestry: benefits of global climate stabilization

    SciTech Connect

    Beach, Robert H.; Cai, Yongxia; Thomson, Allison; Zhang, Xuesong; Jones, Russell; McCarl, Bruce A.; Crimmins, Allison; Martinich, Jeremy; Cole, Jefferson; Ohrel, Sara; DeAngelo, Benjamin; McFarland, James; Strzepek, Kenneth; Boehlert, Brent

    2015-09-01

    Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. There have been numerous studies of climate change impacts on agriculture or forestry, but relatively little research examining the long-term net impacts of a stabilization scenario relative to a case with unabated climate change. We provide an analysis of the potential benefits of global climate change mitigation for US agriculture and forestry through 2100, accounting for landowner decisions regarding land use, crop mix, and management practices. The analytic approach involves a combination of climate models, a crop process model (EPIC), a dynamic vegetation model used for forests (MC1), and an economic model of the US forestry and agricultural sector (FASOM-GHG). We find substantial impacts on productivity, commodity markets, and consumer and producer welfare for the stabilization scenario relative to unabated climate change, though the magnitude and direction of impacts vary across regions and commodities. Although there is variability in welfare impacts across climate simulations, we find positive net benefits from stabilization in all cases, with cumulative impacts ranging from $32.7 billion to $54.5 billion over the period 2015-2100. Our estimates contribute to the literature on potential benefits of GHG mitigation and can help inform policy decisions weighing alternative mitigation and adaptation actions.

  6. Chapter 1. Impacts of the oceans on climate change.

    PubMed

    Reid, Philip C; Fischer, Astrid C; Lewis-Brown, Emily; Meredith, Michael P; Sparrow, Mike; Andersson, Andreas J; Antia, Avan; Bates, Nicholas R; Bathmann, Ulrich; Beaugrand, Gregory; Brix, Holger; Dye, Stephen; Edwards, Martin; Furevik, Tore; Gangstø, Reidun; Hátún, Hjálmar; Hopcroft, Russell R; Kendall, Mike; Kasten, Sabine; Keeling, Ralph; Le Quéré, Corinne; Mackenzie, Fred T; Malin, Gill; Mauritzen, Cecilie; Olafsson, Jón; Paull, Charlie; Rignot, Eric; Shimada, Koji; Vogt, Meike; Wallace, Craig; Wang, Zhaomin; Washington, Richard

    2009-01-01

    The oceans play a key role in climate regulation especially in part buffering (neutralising) the effects of increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising global temperatures. This chapter examines how the regulatory processes performed by the oceans alter as a response to climate change and assesses the extent to which positive feedbacks from the ocean may exacerbate climate change. There is clear evidence for rapid change in the oceans. As the main heat store for the world there has been an accelerating change in sea temperatures over the last few decades, which has contributed to rising sea-level. The oceans are also the main store of carbon dioxide (CO2), and are estimated to have taken up approximately 40% of anthropogenic-sourced CO2 from the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. A proportion of the carbon uptake is exported via the four ocean 'carbon pumps' (Solubility, Biological, Continental Shelf and Carbonate Counter) to the deep ocean reservoir. Increases in sea temperature and changing planktonic systems and ocean currents may lead to a reduction in the uptake of CO2 by the ocean; some evidence suggests a suppression of parts of the marine carbon sink is already underway. While the oceans have buffered climate change through the uptake of CO2 produced by fossil fuel burning this has already had an impact on ocean chemistry through ocean acidification and will continue to do so. Feedbacks to climate change from acidification may result from expected impacts on marine organisms (especially corals and calcareous plankton), ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles. The polar regions of the world are showing the most rapid responses to climate change. As a result of a strong ice-ocean influence, small changes in temperature, salinity and ice cover may trigger large and sudden changes in regional climate with potential downstream feedbacks to the climate of the rest of the world. A warming Arctic Ocean may lead to

  7. IMPACTS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTION ON SUSTAINABILITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    This presentation presents the potential impacts that global climate change may have on the quality and quantity of water available to drinking water and wastewater treatment systems and the adaptations these systems might have to employ in order to remain in regulatory complianc...

  8. Climate Change and Extreme Weather Impacts on Salt Marsh Plants

    EPA Science Inventory

    Regional assessments of climate change impacts on New England demonstrate a clear rise in rainfall over the past century. The number of extreme precipitation events (i.e., two or more inches of rain falling during a 48-hour period) has also increased over the past few decades. ...

  9. Climate Change Impact Assessment of Food- and Waterborne Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Semenza, Jan C.; Herbst, Susanne; Rechenburg, Andrea; Suk, Jonathan E.; Höser, Christoph; Schreiber, Christiane; Kistemann, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The PubMed and ScienceDirect bibliographic databases were searched for the period of 1998–2009 to evaluate the impact of climatic and environmental determinants on food- and waterborne diseases. The authors assessed 1,642 short and concise sentences (key facts), which were extracted from 722 relevant articles and stored in a climate change knowledge base. Key facts pertaining to temperature, precipitation, water, and food for 6 selected pathogens were scrutinized, evaluated, and compiled according to exposure pathways. These key facts (corresponding to approximately 50,000 words) were mapped to 275 terminology terms identified in the literature, which generated 6,341 connections. These relationships were plotted on semantic network maps to examine the interconnections between variables. The risk of campylobacteriosis is associated with mean weekly temperatures, although this link is shown more strongly in the literature relating to salmonellosis. Irregular and severe rain events are associated with Cryptosporidium sp. outbreaks, while noncholera Vibrio sp. displays increased growth rates in coastal waters during hot summers. In contrast, for Norovirus and Listeria sp. the association with climatic variables was relatively weak, but much stronger for food determinants. Electronic data mining to assess the impact of climate change on food- and waterborne diseases assured a methodical appraisal of the field. This climate change knowledge base can support national climate change vulnerability, impact, and adaptation assessments and facilitate the management of future threats from infectious diseases. In the light of diminishing resources for public health this approach can help balance different climate change adaptation options. PMID:24808720

  10. Global Catastrophes in Perspective: Asteroid Impacts vs Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M. B.; Harris, A. W.

    2008-12-01

    When allocating resources to address threats, decision makers are best served by having objective assessments of the relative magnitude of the threats in question. Asteroids greater than about 1 km in diameter are assumed by the planetary impact community to exceed a "global catastrophe threshold". Impacts from smaller objects are expected to cause local or regional destruction, and would be the proximate cause of most associated fatalities. Impacts above the threshold would be expected to alter the climate, killing billions of people and causing a collapse of civilization. In this apocalyptic scenario, only a small fraction of the casualties would be attributable to direct effects of the impact: the blast wave, thermal radiation, debris, ground motion, or tsunami. The vast majority of deaths would come later and be due to indirect causes: starvation, disease, or violence as a consequence of societal disruption related to the impact-induced global climate change. The concept of a catastrophe threshold comes from "nuclear winter" studies, which form the basis for quantitative estimates of the consequences of a large impact. The probability estimates come from astronomical observations and statistical analysis. Much of the impact threat, at its core, is a climate-change threat. Prior to the Spaceguard Survey of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs), the chance of dying from an asteroid impact was estimated to be 1 in 25,000 (Chapman & Morrison, 1994). Most of the large asteroids have now been discovered, and none is on an impact trajectory. Moreover, new data show that mid-sized asteroids (tens to hundreds of meters across) are less abundant than previously thought, by a factor of three. We now estimate that the lifetime odds of being killed by the impact of one of the remaining undiscovered NEOs are about one in 720,000 for individuals with a life expectancy of 80 years (Harris, 2008). One objective way to compare the relative magnitude of the impact threat to that of

  11. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its

  12. Designing ecological climate change impact assessments to reflect key climatic drivers.

    PubMed

    Sofaer, Helen R; Barsugli, Joseph J; Jarnevich, Catherine S; Abatzoglou, John T; Talbert, Marian K; Miller, Brian W; Morisette, Jeffrey T

    2017-02-07

    Identifying the climatic drivers of an ecological system is a key step in assessing its vulnerability to climate change. The climatic dimensions to which a species or system is most sensitive - such as means or extremes - can guide methodological decisions for projections of ecological impacts and vulnerabilities. However, scientific workflows for combining climate projections with ecological models have received little explicit attention. We review Global Climate Model (GCM) performance along different dimensions of change and compare frameworks for integrating GCM output into ecological models. In systems sensitive to climatological means, it is straightforward to base ecological impact assessments on mean projected changes from several GCMs. Ecological systems sensitive to climatic extremes may benefit from what we term the 'model space' approach: a comparison of ecological projections based on simulated climate from historical and future time periods. This approach leverages the experimental framework used in climate modeling, in which historical climate simulations serve as controls for future projections. Moreover, it can capture projected changes in the intensity and frequency of climatic extremes, rather than assuming that future means will determine future extremes. Given the recent emphasis on the ecological impacts of climatic extremes, the strategies we describe will be applicable across species and systems. We also highlight practical considerations for the selection of climate models and data products, emphasizing that the spatial resolution of the climate change signal is generally coarser than the grid cell size of downscaled climate model output. Our review illustrates how an understanding of how climate model outputs are derived and downscaled can improve the selection and application of climatic data used in ecological modeling.

  13. Climate change impacts and risks for animal health in Asia.

    PubMed

    Forman, S; Hungerford, N; Yamakawa, M; Yanase, T; Tsai, H-J; Joo, Y-S; Yang, D-K; Nha, J-J

    2008-08-01

    The threat of climate change and global warming is now recognised worldwide and some alarming manifestations of change have occurred. The Asian continent, because of its size and diversity, may be affected significantly by the consequences of climate change, and its new status as a 'hub' of livestock production gives it an important role in mitigating possible impacts of climate variability on animal health. Animal health may be affected by climate change in four ways: heat-related diseases and stress, extreme weather events, adaptation of animal production systems to new environments, and emergence or re-emergence of infectious diseases, especially vector-borne diseases critically dependent on environmental and climatic conditions. To face these new menaces, the need for strong and efficient Veterinary Services is irrefutable, combined with good coordination of public health services, as many emerging human diseases are zoonoses. Asian developing countries have acute weaknesses in their Veterinary Services, which jeopardises the global surveillance network essential for early detection of hazards. Indeed, international cooperation within and outside Asia is vital to mitigating the risks of climate change to animal health in Asia.

  14. The impact of climate change on the world's marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Bruno, John F

    2010-06-18

    Marine ecosystems are centrally important to the biology of the planet, yet a comprehensive understanding of how anthropogenic climate change is affecting them has been poorly developed. Recent studies indicate that rapidly rising greenhouse gas concentrations are driving ocean systems toward conditions not seen for millions of years, with an associated risk of fundamental and irreversible ecological transformation. The impacts of anthropogenic climate change so far include decreased ocean productivity, altered food web dynamics, reduced abundance of habitat-forming species, shifting species distributions, and a greater incidence of disease. Although there is considerable uncertainty about the spatial and temporal details, climate change is clearly and fundamentally altering ocean ecosystems. Further change will continue to create enormous challenges and costs for societies worldwide, particularly those in developing countries.

  15. Response surfaces for climate change impact assessments in urban areas.

    PubMed

    Semadeni-Davies, A

    2003-01-01

    Assessment of the impacts of climate change in real-world water systems, such as urban drainage networks, is a research priority for IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change). The usual approach is to force a hydrological transformation model with a changed climate scenario. To tackle uncertainty, the model should be run with at least high, middle and low change scenarios. This paper shows the value of response surfaces for displaying multiple simulated responses to incremental changes in air temperature and precipitation. The example given is inflow, related to sewer infiltration, at the Lycksele waste water treatment plant. The range of plausible changes in inflow is displayed for a series of runs for eight GCMs (Global Circulation Model; ACACIA; Carter, 2002, pers. comm.). These runs are summarised by climate envelopes, one for each prediction time-slice (2020, 2050, 2080). Together, the climate envelopes and response surfaces allow uncertainty to be easily seen. Winter inflows are currently sensitive to temperature, but if average temperature rises to above zero, inflow will be most sensitive to precipitation. Spring inflows are sensitive to changes in winter snow accumulation and melt. Inflow responses are highly dependent on the greenhouse gas emission scenario and GCM chosen.

  16. The impact of climate change on the water resource

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perac, Marija Å.; Grgurevac, Anamarija

    2010-05-01

    The EU has defined dangerous climate change as an increase in 2 degrees Celsius of average global temperatures. Rising global temperatures will lead to an intensification of hydrological cycle, resulting in dryer dry season, and subsequently heightened risk of more extreme and frequent floods and drought. Climate change is caused by greenhouse gasses ( GHGs), which enhance the " greenhouse " properties of the earth's atmosphere. These gasses allow solar radiation from the sun to travel through the atmosphere but prevent the reflected heat from escaping back into space. This causes the earth's temperature to rise. Changing climate will also have significant impacts on the availability of water as well as the quality of water that is available and accessible. Possibly, climate change magnificent impact at water cycles in Croatia. It means more droughts, it will have impact in agriculture and natural systems, specially swamp areas. Also, it will be come to reduction river flows, and maybe lower underground water level which used for water supply. Climate change can be impact on intensity of floods and quality/quantity of water.Successes of climate change in Croatia are: decrease volume of precipitation at whole state area; long drought years directly water quantity for irrigation; decreasing drinking water. Ponder able for next 40 years mean temperature will be increase for 2,5 C. It assumes that sea level will be increase at 65 - 100 cm. It will be endanger cities and settlements besides coast ( cities: Split, Zadar; west coast of Istra; delta of Neretva; islands: Krk, Cres, Lošinj…). Suggestions for next activities: monitoring and notation hydro meteorological information's; account impact of climate change on the: evaporation, drain, water balance, water management activity, make a region impact study of a possibly account on the water resources. Maintaining and development of water resources and agrotehnical systems and application water management strategy

  17. Assessing the impacts of climatic change on mountain water resources.

    PubMed

    Beniston, Martin; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-09-15

    As the evidence for human induced climate change becomes clearer, so too does the realization that its effects will have impacts on numerous environmental and socio-economic systems. Mountains are recognized as very sensitive physical environments with populations whose histories and current social positions often strain their capacity to accommodate intense and rapid changes to their resource base. It is thus essential to assess the impacts of a changing climate, focusing on the quantity of water originating in mountain regions, particularly where snow and ice melt represent a large streamflow component as well as a local resource in terms of freshwater supply, hydropower generation, or irrigation. Increasing evidence of glacier retreat, permafrost degradation and reduced mountain snowpack has been observed in many regions, thereby suggesting that climate change may seriously affect streamflow regimes. These changes could in turn threaten the availability of water resources for many environmental and economic systems, and exacerbate a range of natural hazards that would compound these impacts. As a consequence, socio-economic structures of downstream living populations would be also impacted, calling for better preparedness and strategies to avoid conflicts of interest between water-dependent economic actors. This paper is thus an introduction to the Special Issue of this journal dedicated to the European Union Seventh Framework Program (EU-FP7) project ACQWA (Assessing Climate Impacts on the Quantity and Quality of WAter), a major European network of scientists that was coordinated by the University of Geneva from 2008 to 2014. The goal of ACQWA has been to address a number of these issues and propose a range of solutions for adaptation to change and to help improve water governance in regions where quantity, seasonality, and perhaps quality of water may substantially change in coming decades.

  18. Impacts of climate change on the global forest sector

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Perez-Garcia, J.; Joyce, L.A.; McGuire, A.D.; Xiao, X.

    2002-01-01

    The path and magnitude of future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide will likely influence changes in climate that may impact the global forest sector. These responses in the global forest sector may have implications for international efforts to stabilize the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide. This study takes a step toward including the role of global forest sector in integrated assessments of the global carbon cycle by linking global models of climate dynamics, ecosystem processes and forest economics to assess the potential responses of the global forest sector to different levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We utilize three climate scenarios and two economic scenarios to represent a range of greenhouse gas emissions and economic behavior. At the end of the analysis period (2040), the potential responses in regional forest growing stock simulated by the global ecosystem model range from decreases and increases for the low emissions climate scenario to increases in all regions for the high emissions climate scenario. The changes in vegetation are used to adjust timber supply in the softwood and hardwood sectors of the economic model. In general, the global changes in welfare are positive, but small across all scenarios. At the regional level, the changes in welfare can be large and either negative or positive. Markets and trade in forest products play important roles in whether a region realizes any gains associated with climate change. In general, regions with the lowest wood fiber production cost are able to expand harvests. Trade in forest products leads to lower prices elsewhere. The low-cost regions expand market shares and force higher-cost regions to decrease their harvests. Trade produces different economic gains and losses across the globe even though, globally, economic welfare increases. The results of this study indicate that assumptions within alternative climate scenarios and about trade in forest products are important factors

  19. The impact of climate change on coastal ecosystems: chapter 6

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Burkett, Virginia; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Nicholls, Robert J.; Forbes, Donald L.

    2014-01-01

    In this chapter we stress two important features of coasts and coastal ecosystems. First, these are dynamic systems which continually undergo adjustments, especially through erosion and re-deposition, in response to a range of processes. Many coastal ecosystems adjust naturally at a range of time scales and their potential for response is examined partly by reconstructing how such systems have coped with natural changes of climate and sea level in the geological past. Second, coasts have changed profoundly through the 20th Century due to the impacts of human development (such as urbanisation, port and industrial expansion, shore protection, and the draining and conversion of coastal wetlands), with these development-related drivers closely linked to a growing global population and economy. It remains a challenge to isolate the impacts of climate change and sea-level rise from either the natural trajectory of shoreline change, or the accelerated pathway resulting from other human-related stressors. There exists a danger of overstating the importance of climate change, or overlooking significant interactions of climate change with other drivers.

  20. A Framework to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Climate change is projected to alter watershed hydrology and potentially amplify nonpoint source pollution transport. These changes have implications for fish and macroinvertebrates, which are often used as measures of aquatic ecosystem health. By quantifying the risk of adverse impacts to aquatic ecosystem health at the reach-scale, watershed climate change adaptation strategies can be developed and prioritized. The objective of this research was to quantify the impacts of climate change on stream health in seven Michigan watersheds. A process-based watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was linked to adaptive neuro-fuzzy inferenced (ANFIS) stream health models. SWAT models were used to simulate reach-scale flow regime (magnitude, frequency, timing, duration, and rate of change) and water quality variables. The ANFIS models were developed based on relationships between the in-stream variables and sampling points of four stream health indicators: the fish index of biotic integrity (IBI), macroinvertebrate family index of biotic integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI), and number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa. The combined SWAT-ANFIS models extended stream health predictions to all watershed reaches. A climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was used to develop projections of changes to flow regime (using SWAT) and stream health indicators (using ANFIS) from a ba

  1. Watershed Model Parameterization for Assessing Impacts due to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yactayo, G. A.; Bhatt, G.

    2014-12-01

    The Chesapeake Bay (CB) Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) program drives water quality policy and management in parts of six states — Delaware, Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia — along with the District of Columbia to achieve water quality standards in the Bay through reductions in nutrient and sediment pollution. The HSPF Watershed Model (WSM) is used as an accounting tool in the development of the TMDL to track progress and guide implementations of best management practices. Published research has shown that precipitation has increased in the US during 20th century by about ten percent, and half of the increase is due to changes in frequency and intensity in the upper tenth percentile of the distribution. Projections from global climate models suggest that these trends are anticipated to continue over the next century. Our analysis of climate data over the last three decades show similar trends in observed precipitation in the CB Watershed. The impact of climate change on the CB TMDL will be examined in a 2017 assessment of progress in the State and Federal partnership of the Chesapeake Bay Program. This is consistent with the CB Executive Order of May 12, 2009 mandates assessment of the impacts of climate change on the CB TMDL. The WSM has a simulation period of more than 3 decades from 1985 to 2011. Over the simulation period precipitation intensity, temperatures, and CO2 levels are increasing. A study conducted by Najjar et al. (2010) that included regional climate projections suggests that pollutant loads in the CB region will increase over the next century. Butcher et al. (2014) demonstrated that a watershed model parameter needs to be adjusted to compensate for the effect of elevated CO2 concentrations on plant transpiration in climate projection applications. This raises the question of whether parameters within a watershed model calibrated using historical climate data are sufficient for assessing hydrologic and water

  2. Choice of baseline climate data impacts projected species' responses to climate change.

    PubMed

    Baker, David J; Hartley, Andrew J; Butchart, Stuart H M; Willis, Stephen G

    2016-07-01

    Climate data created from historic climate observations are integral to most assessments of potential climate change impacts, and frequently comprise the baseline period used to infer species-climate relationships. They are often also central to downscaling coarse resolution climate simulations from General Circulation Models (GCMs) to project future climate scenarios at ecologically relevant spatial scales. Uncertainty in these baseline data can be large, particularly where weather observations are sparse and climate dynamics are complex (e.g. over mountainous or coastal regions). Yet, importantly, this uncertainty is almost universally overlooked when assessing potential responses of species to climate change. Here, we assessed the importance of historic baseline climate uncertainty for projections of species' responses to future climate change. We built species distribution models (SDMs) for 895 African bird species of conservation concern, using six different climate baselines. We projected these models to two future periods (2040-2069, 2070-2099), using downscaled climate projections, and calculated species turnover and changes in species-specific climate suitability. We found that the choice of baseline climate data constituted an important source of uncertainty in projections of both species turnover and species-specific climate suitability, often comparable with, or more important than, uncertainty arising from the choice of GCM. Importantly, the relative contribution of these factors to projection uncertainty varied spatially. Moreover, when projecting SDMs to sites of biodiversity importance (Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas), these uncertainties altered site-level impacts, which could affect conservation prioritization. Our results highlight that projections of species' responses to climate change are sensitive to uncertainty in the baseline climatology. We recommend that this should be considered routinely in such analyses.

  3. Conservation strategies to mitigate impacts from climate change in Amazonia.

    PubMed

    Killeen, Timothy J; Solórzano, Luis A

    2008-05-27

    Protected area systems and conservation corridors can help mitigate the impacts of climate change on Amazonian biodiversity. We propose conservation design criteria that will help species survive in situ or adjust range distributions in response to increased drought. The first priority is to protect the western Amazon, identified as the 'Core Amazon', due to stable rainfall regimes and macro-ecological phenomena that have led to the evolution of high levels of biodiversity. Ecotones can buffer the impact from climate change because populations are genetically adapted to climate extremes, particularly seasonality, because high levels of habitat diversity are associated with edaphic variability. Future climatic tension zones should be surveyed for geomorphological features that capture rain or conserve soil moisture to identify potential refugia for humid forest species. Conservation corridors should span environmental gradients to ensure that species can shift range distributions. Riparian corridors provide protection to both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Multiple potential altitudinal corridors exist in the Andes, but natural and anthropogenic bottlenecks will constrain the ability of species to shift their ranges and adapt to climate change. Planned infrastructure investments are a serious threat to the potential to consolidate corridors over the short and medium term.

  4. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands.

    PubMed

    Lee, Se-Yeun; Ryan, Maureen E; Hamlet, Alan F; Palen, Wendy J; Lawler, Joshua J; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916-2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  5. Projecting the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change on Montane Wetlands

    PubMed Central

    Hamlet, Alan F.; Palen, Wendy J.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Halabisky, Meghan

    2015-01-01

    Wetlands are globally important ecosystems that provide critical services for natural communities and human society. Montane wetland ecosystems are expected to be among the most sensitive to changing climate, as their persistence depends on factors directly influenced by climate (e.g. precipitation, snowpack, evaporation). Despite their importance and climate sensitivity, wetlands tend to be understudied due to a lack of tools and data relative to what is available for other ecosystem types. Here, we develop and demonstrate a new method for projecting climate-induced hydrologic changes in montane wetlands. Using observed wetland water levels and soil moisture simulated by the physically based Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, we developed site-specific regression models relating soil moisture to observed wetland water levels to simulate the hydrologic behavior of four types of montane wetlands (ephemeral, intermediate, perennial, permanent wetlands) in the U. S. Pacific Northwest. The hybrid models captured observed wetland dynamics in many cases, though were less robust in others. We then used these models to a) hindcast historical wetland behavior in response to observed climate variability (1916–2010 or later) and classify wetland types, and b) project the impacts of climate change on montane wetlands using global climate model scenarios for the 2040s and 2080s (A1B emissions scenario). These future projections show that climate-induced changes to key driving variables (reduced snowpack, higher evapotranspiration, extended summer drought) will result in earlier and faster drawdown in Pacific Northwest montane wetlands, leading to systematic reductions in water levels, shortened wetland hydroperiods, and increased probability of drying. Intermediate hydroperiod wetlands are projected to experience the greatest changes. For the 2080s scenario, widespread conversion of intermediate wetlands to fast-drying ephemeral wetlands will likely reduce

  6. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Wildfire Exposure in Mediterranean Areas.

    PubMed

    Lozano, Olga M; Salis, Michele; Ager, Alan A; Arca, Bachisio; Alcasena, Fermin J; Monteiro, Antonio T; Finney, Mark A; Del Giudice, Liliana; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Spano, Donatella

    2016-12-20

    We used simulation modeling to assess potential climate change impacts on wildfire exposure in Italy and Corsica (France). Weather data were obtained from a regional climate model for the period 1981-2070 using the IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Wildfire simulations were performed with the minimum travel time fire spread algorithm using predicted fuel moisture, wind speed, and wind direction to simulate expected changes in weather for three climatic periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, and 2041-2070). Overall, the wildfire simulations showed very slight changes in flame length, while other outputs such as burn probability and fire size increased significantly in the second future period (2041-2070), especially in the southern portion of the study area. The projected changes fuel moisture could result in a lengthening of the fire season for the entire study area. This work represents the first application in Europe of a methodology based on high resolution (250 m) landscape wildfire modeling to assess potential impacts of climate changes on wildfire exposure at a national scale. The findings can provide information and support in wildfire management planning and fire risk mitigation activities.

  7. Globalisation and climate change in Asia: the urban health impact.

    PubMed

    Munslow, Barry; O'Dempsey, Tim

    2010-01-01

    Asia's economic development successes will create new policy areas to address, as the advances made through globalisation create greater climate change challenges, particularly the impact on urban health. Poverty eradication and higher standards of living both increase demand on resources. Globalisation increases inequalities and those who are currently the losers will carry the greatest burden of the costs in the form of the negative effects of climate change and the humanitarian crises that will ensue. Of four major climate change challenges affecting the environment and health, two—urban air pollution and waste management—can be mitigated by policy change and technological innovation if sufficient resources are allocated. Because of the urban bias in the development process, these challenges will probably register on policy makers' agenda. The second two major challenges—floods and drought—are less amenable to policy and technological solutions: many humanitarian emergency challenges lie ahead. This article describes the widely varying impact of both globalisation and climate change across Asia. The greatest losers are those who flee one marginal location, the arid inland areas, only to settle in another marginal location in the flood prone coastal slums. Effective preparation is required, and an effective response when subsequent humanitarian crises occur.

  8. Timing and Prediction of Climate Change and Hydrological Impacts: Periodicity in Natural Variations

    EPA Science Inventory

    Hydrological impacts from climate change are of principal interest to water resource policy-makers and practicing engineers, and predictive climatic models have been extensively investigated to quantify the impacts. In palaeoclmatic investigations, climate proxy evidence has une...

  9. Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goderniaux, Pascal; BrouyèRe, Serge; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Burton, Aidan; Fowler, Hayley J.; Orban, Philippe; Dassargues, Alain

    2011-12-01

    Several studies have highlighted the potential negative impact of climate change on groundwater reserves, but additional work is required to help water managers plan for future changes. In particular, existing studies provide projections for a stationary climate representative of the end of the century, although information is demanded for the near future. Such time-slice experiments fail to account for the transient nature of climatic changes over the century. Moreover, uncertainty linked to natural climate variability is not explicitly considered in previous studies. In this study we substantially improve upon the state-of-the-art by using a sophisticated transient weather generator in combination with an integrated surface-subsurface hydrological model (Geer basin, Belgium) developed with the finite element modeling software "HydroGeoSphere." This version of the weather generator enables the stochastic generation of large numbers of equiprobable climatic time series, representing transient climate change, and used to assess impacts in a probabilistic way. For the Geer basin, 30 equiprobable climate change scenarios from 2010 to 2085 have been generated for each of six different regional climate models (RCMs). Results show that although the 95% confidence intervals calculated around projected groundwater levels remain large, the climate change signal becomes stronger than that of natural climate variability by 2085. Additionally, the weather generator's ability to simulate transient climate change enabled the assessment of the likely time scale and associated uncertainty of a specific impact, providing managers with additional information when planning further investment. This methodology constitutes a real improvement in the field of groundwater projections under climate change conditions.

  10. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution.

    PubMed

    Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M; Morse, Andrew P; Colón-González, Felipe J; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J

    2014-03-04

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution.

  11. Impact of climate change on global malaria distribution

    PubMed Central

    Caminade, Cyril; Kovats, Sari; Rocklov, Joacim; Tompkins, Adrian M.; Morse, Andrew P.; Colón-González, Felipe J.; Stenlund, Hans; Martens, Pim; Lloyd, Simon J.

    2014-01-01

    Malaria is an important disease that has a global distribution and significant health burden. The spatial limits of its distribution and seasonal activity are sensitive to climate factors, as well as the local capacity to control the disease. Malaria is also one of the few health outcomes that has been modeled by more than one research group and can therefore facilitate the first model intercomparison for health impacts under a future with climate change. We used bias-corrected temperature and rainfall simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models to compare the metrics of five statistical and dynamical malaria impact models for three future time periods (2030s, 2050s, and 2080s). We evaluated three malaria outcome metrics at global and regional levels: climate suitability, additional population at risk and additional person-months at risk across the model outputs. The malaria projections were based on five different global climate models, each run under four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs) and a single population projection. We also investigated the modeling uncertainty associated with future projections of populations at risk for malaria owing to climate change. Our findings show an overall global net increase in climate suitability and a net increase in the population at risk, but with large uncertainties. The model outputs indicate a net increase in the annual person-months at risk when comparing from RCP2.6 to RCP8.5 from the 2050s to the 2080s. The malaria outcome metrics were highly sensitive to the choice of malaria impact model, especially over the epidemic fringes of the malaria distribution. PMID:24596427

  12. Burning Fossil Fuels: Impact of Climate Change on Health.

    PubMed

    Sommer, Alfred

    2016-01-01

    A recent, sophisticated granular analysis of climate change in the United States related to burning fossil fuels indicates a high likelihood of dramatic increases in temperature, wet-bulb temperature, and precipitation, which will dramatically impact the health and well-being of many Americans, particularly the young, the elderly, and the poor and marginalized. Other areas of the world, where they lack the resources to remediate these weather impacts, will be even more greatly affected. Too little attention is being paid to the impending health impact of accumulating greenhouse gases.

  13. The impact of climate change on persistent contrail occurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irvine, Emma; Shine, Keith; Stringer, Marc

    2016-04-01

    The formation of persistent contrails by aircraft flying through cold ice-supersaturated (CISS) regions contributes to anthropogenic climate change. However, as the climate itself changes during the 21st century, the potential for the formation of persistent contrails may also change. We recently (doi: 10.5194/esd-6-555-2015) found a global-mean decrease in the frequency of CISS regions of one third (11 to 7%) by the end of the 21st century, relative to present-day conditions, using climate model data from CMIP5. This decrease is dominated by the large decrease in CISS frequency in the tropics where the models predict strong upper-tropospheric warming, to levels above the threshold temperature at which contrails can form. The situation for the northern hemisphere mid-latitudes is less clear and dependent on model, latitude and season. Actual changes to contrail cover during this period will depend also on flight routing. An example is shown for the north Atlantic, where aircraft routing is strongly wind-dependent and therefore will be affected by changes to the jet stream. Here we combine our analysis of changes in CISS with projected changes in aircraft routes (which are calculated using the climate model winds), to estimate the net impact on persistent contrail occurrence in this region. We distinguish between the effect on eastbound flights, which generally aim to exploit the jet stream, and westbound flights that aim to avoid it.

  14. Climate Change Impacts in a Colombian Andean Tropical Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ocampo, O. L.; Vélez, J. J.; Londoño, A.

    2012-12-01

    Climate change and climate variability have a large impact on water resources. Developing regions have less capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from climate-related hazards and effects, and then, populations may be disproportionately affected. In Colombia, the geographical location and the marked irregularity in the terrain, give as a result, a complex climate. These factors have contributed to the water supply of the territory. Unfortunately, the visualization of abundant and inexhaustible water resources created a great disregard for them. Besides, the water supply is not distributed uniformly across the country, and then there is water-deficit in some areas as Andean Region, where the largest population and the main development centers are located. In recent decades, water conflicts have emerged locally and regionally, which have generated a crisis in the allocation mechanisms and have improved the understanding of the water situation in Colombia. The Second National Communication to CCMNU alerts on possible future consequences of climate change and the need for regional studies for understanding climate change impacts on the fragile ecosystems of high mountains as paramos and fog forest, which are water production regulators. Colombian water resources are greatly affected by changes in rainfall patterns influenced by El Niño and La Niña. The recent disasters in the 2010-2011 rainy seasons have caught the attention of not only the authorities but from the scientific community to explore strategies to improve water management by tracking, anticipating and responding to climate variability and climate change. Whereas sound water management is built upon long-term, the country is undertaking a pilot exercise for the integrated management of water resources, five Basins are selected, among them, is the Chinchiná River Basin; this Andean tropical Basin is located on the western slopes at the central range in the Andes between 4°48 and 5°12 N

  15. Climate change impacts are sensitive to the concentration stabilization path.

    PubMed

    O'Neill, Brian C; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2004-11-23

    Analysis of policies to achieve the long-term objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, stabilizing concentrations of greenhouse gases at levels that avoid "dangerous" climate changes, must discriminate among the infinite number of emission and concentration trajectories that yield the same final concentration. Considerable attention has been devoted to path-dependent mitigation costs, generally for CO2 alone, but not to the differential climate change impacts implied by alternative trajectories. Here, we derive pathways leading to stabilization of equivalent CO2 concentration (including radiative forcing effects of all significant trace gases and aerosols) with a range of transient behavior before stabilization, including temporary overshoot of the final value. We compare resulting climate changes to the sensitivity of representative geophysical and ecological systems. Based on the limited available information, some physical and ecological systems appear to be quite sensitive to the details of the approach to stabilization. The likelihood of occurrence of impacts that might be considered dangerous increases under trajectories that delay emissions reduction or overshoot the final concentration.

  16. Using climate model output to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources

    SciTech Connect

    Cushman, R.M.

    1990-01-01

    The use of general circulation models (GCMs) to provide climate data for regional assessments of the impacts of changing climate on water resources stretches the limits of what the models were designed for. Problems that must be addressed include disagreement on a regional scale among GCMs and between the modeled and observed climate; coarse spatial resolution of the models; and simplistic representation of surface hydrology. It is important that continued progress be made in developing the methodology for using GCM output in climate-impact assessments. 18 refs.

  17. Impacts of climate change on floods in alpine catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dobler, C.

    2009-04-01

    Recently, unusual natural disasters have occurred in parts of western Austria. The storms "Kyrill" (January, 2007), "Paula" (January, 2008) and "Emma" (February/March, 2008), but especially the disastrous avalanches (February 1999) and the catastrophic floods (during Pentecost in 1999, in the summer of 2002 and in August, 2005) impressively demonstrate how sensitive mountain areas respond to extreme weather conditions. According to the new scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), heavy precipitation events are projected to become more frequent over most regions. Various studies indicate a shift in the frequency-magnitude relationship of floods, but have not been conducted for the Alps so far, because the currently available climate models have reached their limits in areas of complex topography. The aim of this study is to examine, if an increasing danger potential can be expected in alpine catchments. Such questions are socially extremely relevant and essentially contribute to the attempt to protect the Alps as living environment in times of global change. The focus of the study lies in a model-based analysis of the impacts of climate change on floods in a valley in Tyrol. The research is based on three methodical steps. The first is to create local temperature and precipitation scenarios for the baseline and the future climate. Second, this meteorological data are used to simulate daily river flows and third, the simulated future river flows are compared with those simulated for the baseline. In the following, especially the first step is described more detailed, as there are considerable differences to existing studies. The currently available global climate models with low spatial resolution plausibly reflect the climate on a global to a continental scale. Besides, there are many regional climate models that use the results of the global climate model as initial and marginal conditions. But even such climate models of significantly

  18. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-01

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  19. Biophysical climate impacts of recent changes in global forest cover.

    PubMed

    Alkama, Ramdane; Cescatti, Alessandro

    2016-02-05

    Changes in forest cover affect the local climate by modulating the land-atmosphere fluxes of energy and water. The magnitude of this biophysical effect is still debated in the scientific community and currently ignored in climate treaties. Here we present an observation-driven assessment of the climate impacts of recent forest losses and gains, based on Earth observations of global forest cover and land surface temperatures. Our results show that forest losses amplify the diurnal temperature variation and increase the mean and maximum air temperature, with the largest signal in arid zones, followed by temperate, tropical, and boreal zones. In the decade 2003-2012, variations of forest cover generated a mean biophysical warming on land corresponding to about 18% of the global biogeochemical signal due to CO2 emission from land-use change.

  20. California Action to Increase Resiliency to Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunello, A.

    2008-12-01

    With the passage and implementation of California's Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32), California is providing international leadership in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. In concert with these efforts, California is also developing a comprehensive state climate adaptation strategy to increase the state's resiliency to existing and projected sea level rise, rising temperatures, and precipitation changes. I will describe the process being used to develop the strategy, which focuses on identifying areas most vulnerable to climate impacts, developing strategies to reduce risks to vulnerable areas, and implementing an action plan. An emphasis on strategies related to mountain environments such as the Sierra Nevada Mountain range will be presented.

  1. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Global Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Santer, B.

    2009-12-01

    The first Key Finding from the recent USGCRP report “Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States” is: 1. Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced. Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. This statement is based on a combination of observational, theoretical and model based analyses and are a consensus opinion of the report’s Lead Author team. The scientific rationale supporting this consensus will be summarized.

  2. Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation.

    PubMed

    Herrero, M; Addison, J; Bedelian, C; Carabine, E; Havlík, P; Henderson, B; Van De Steeg, J; Thornton, P K

    2016-11-01

    The authors discuss the main climate change impacts on pastoralist societies, including those on rangelands, livestock and other natural resources, and their extended repercussions on food security, incomes and vulnerability. The impacts of climate change on the rangelands of the globe and on the vulnerability of the people who inhabit them will be severe and diverse, and will require multiple, simultaneous responses. In higher latitudes, the removal of temperature constraints might increase pasture production and livestock productivity, but in tropical arid lands, the impacts are highly location specific, but mostly negative. The authors outline several adaptation options, ranging from implementing new technical practices and diversifying income sources to finding institutional support and introducing new market mechanisms, all of which are pivotal for enhancing the capacity of pastoralists to adapt to climate variability and change. Due to the dynamism of all the changes affecting pastoral societies, strategies that lock pastoral societies into specified development pathways could be maladaptive. Flexible and evolving combinations of practices and policies are the key to successful pastoral adaptation.

  3. Climate change impacts on southeastern U.S. basins

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Georgakakos, Aris P.; Yao, Huaming

    2000-01-01

    The work described herein aims to assess the impacts of potential climate change on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) and Alabama-Coosa-Talapoosa (ACT) river basins in the Southeastern US. The assessment addresses the potential impacts on watershed hydrology (soil moisture and streamflow) and on major water uses including water supply, drought management, hydropower, environmental and ecological protection, recreation, and navigation. This investigation develops new methods, establishes and uses an integrated modeling framework, and reaches several important conclusions that bear upon river basin planning and management. Although the specific impacts vary significantly with the choice of the GCM scenario, some general conclusions are that (1) soil moisture and streamflow variability is expected to increase, and (2) flexible and adaptive water sharing agreements, management strategies, and institutional processes are best suited to cope with the uncertainty associated with future climate scenarios.

  4. Climate change intensification of herbivore impacts on tree recruitment.

    PubMed

    Brodie, Jedediah; Post, Eric; Watson, Fred; Berger, Joel

    2012-04-07

    Altered species interactions are difficult to predict and yet may drive the response of ecological communities to climate change. We show that declining snowpack strengthens the impacts of a generalist herbivore, elk (Cervus elaphus), on a common tree species. Thick snowpack substantially reduces elk visitation to sites; aspen (Populus tremuloides) shoots in these areas experience lower browsing rates, higher survival and enhanced recruitment. Aspen inside herbivore exclosures have greatly increased recruitment, particularly at sites with thick snowpack. We suggest that long-term decreases in snowpack could help explain a widespread decline of aspen through previously unconsidered relationships. More generally, reduced snowpack across the Rocky Mountains, combined with rising elk populations, may remove the conditions needed for recruitment of this ecologically important tree species. These results highlight that herbivore behavioural responses to altered abiotic conditions are critical determinants of plant persistence. Predictions of climate change impacts must not overlook the crucial importance of species interactions.

  5. Drivers of climate change impacts on bird communities.

    PubMed

    Pearce-Higgins, James W; Eglington, Sarah M; Martay, Blaise; Chamberlain, Dan E

    2015-07-01

    Climate change is reported to have caused widespread changes to species' populations and ecological communities. Warming has been associated with population declines in long-distance migrants and habitat specialists, and increases in southerly distributed species. However, the specific climatic drivers behind these changes remain undescribed. We analysed annual fluctuations in the abundance of 59 breeding bird species in England over 45 years to test the effect of monthly temperature and precipitation means upon population trends. Strong positive correlations between population growth and both winter and breeding season temperature were identified for resident and short-distance migrants. Lagged correlations between population growth and summer temperature and precipitation identified for the first time a widespread negative impact of hot, dry summer weather. Resident populations appeared to increase following wet autumns. Populations of long-distance migrants were negatively affected by May temperature, consistent with a potential negative effect of phenological mismatch upon breeding success. There was evidence for some nonlinear relationships between monthly weather variables and population growth. Habitat specialists and cold-associated species showed consistently more negative effects of higher temperatures than habitat generalists and southerly distributed species associated with warm temperatures. Results suggest that previously reported changes in community composition represent the accumulated effects of spring and summer warming. Long-term population trends were more significantly correlated with species' sensitivity to temperature than precipitation, suggesting that warming has had a greater impact on population trends than changes in precipitation. Months where there had been the greatest warming were the most influential drivers of long-term change. There was also evidence that species with the greatest sensitivity to extremes of precipitation have

  6. Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlenker, Wolfram; Lobell, David B.

    2010-01-01

    There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are - 22, - 17, - 17, - 18, and - 8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat related losses.

  7. Modeling Climate Change Impacts on Landscape Evolution, Fire, and Hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheppard, B. S.; O Connor, C.; Falk, D. A.; Garfin, G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Landscape disturbances such as wildfire interact with climate variability to influence hydrologic regimes. We coupled landscape, fire, and hydrologic models and forced them using projected climate to demonstrate climate change impacts anticipated at Fort Huachuca in southeastern Arizona, USA. The US Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a trend that has implications for military installations, national security and global instability. The goal of this DoD Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) project (RC-2232) is to provide decision making tools for military installations in the southwestern US to help them adapt to the operational realities associated with climate change. For this study we coupled the spatially explicit fire and vegetation dynamics model FireBGCv2 with the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment tool (AGWA) to evaluate landscape vegetation change, fire disturbance, and surface runoff in response to projected climate forcing. A projected climate stream for the years 2005-2055 was developed from the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) 4 km statistical downscaling of the CanESM2 GCM using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5. AGWA, an ArcGIS add-in tool, was used to automate the parameterization and execution of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the KINematic runoff and EROSion2 (KINEROS2) models based on GIS layers. Landscape raster data generated by FireBGCv2 project an increase in fire and drought associated tree mortality and a decrease in vegetative basal area over the years of simulation. Preliminary results from SWAT modeling efforts show an increase to surface runoff during years following a fire, and for future winter rainy seasons. Initial results from KINEROS2 model runs show that peak runoff rates are expected to increase 10-100 fold as a result of intense rainfall falling on burned areas.

  8. Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, N. L.

    2011-12-01

    California's water resources are primarily from snowmelt runoff from the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains. Depending on the year, Sierra Nevada snowmelt provides seventy percent of the water resources needed to sustain urban, agricultural, ecological, and other sector needs. With increasing temperatures due to climate change the Sierra Nevada snowmelt is occurring earlier and with decreasing snow cover area. Such change may mimic drought scenarios and dramatically alter water resource availability and management in California. A fundamental requirement for drought water management is knowledge of the total groundwater resources and the rate in which it is depleted. Application of remote sensed Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data represents an important new approach toward quantifying these values. The primary uncertainties are the spatial scale required for an accurate GRACE analysis and an insufficient number and frequency of well observations for ground-truth. In this study, an initial quantification of long-term droughts - an analogue for climate change related snowpack reduction - has been performed to illustrate the potential for subsurface storage to limit the adverse impacts of drought and snowpack reduction on water supply in the California. This includes estimates of the impacts of changes in groundwater levels, surface supply, and crop water demands. Analysis of California Central Valley impacts of sustained droughts are based on a series of specified reductions in net surface flows corresponding to historical 30% (below average), 50% (dry), and 70% (critically dry) effective reduction, for periods ranging from 10 to 60 years, and applied to the California Department of Water Resource's California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model. The impacts of the droughts are modeled for four different regions in the Central Valley, including the Sacramento Basin, Eastside, the San Joaquin Basin, and the Tulare Basin. Results

  9. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    PubMed

    Fox, Naomi J; White, Piran C L; McClean, Colin J; Marion, Glenn; Evans, Andy; Hutchings, Michael R

    2011-01-10

    Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  10. An Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nair, K. S.

    2009-09-01

    National economy and life of millions of poor largely related to climate sensitive natural resource base and a densely populated 7500 Km long low-lying coastline make India highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Significant changes in the amount, intensity and seasonality of rainfall and extremes in temperature observed in different states are serious challenges to the securities in food, water and energy. Vagaries in monsoons and associated setbacks in agriculture that represents 35% GDP affect economy and rural life, leading to social issues like migration and spread of terrorism. Impact on forest affects the biodiversity, economy and life of tribals. Water availability in certain states has been falling sharply due to the changes in the amount as well as the seasonality of rainfall. Increase in rainfall intensity erodes topsoil in the Western Ghats Mountain and reduces the streamflow and reservoir capacity. Retreat of the Himalayan glaciers may add to the severity of hydrological extremes in the entire north India in the coming years. Irregular onset of monsoon and change in seasonality have already affected the plant biodiversity in the southern state of Kerala. Some seasonal plants became extinct because of the prolonged dry season. Almost all parts of India are increasingly becoming prone to floods or droughts. Drylands are potentially threatened by desertification. Changes in the frequency, intensity and track of cyclones and rising sea level are of serious concern in the coastal zones. Decreasing trend in fish catch in the southern coasts is linked to the changes in coastal circulation, SST and upwelling patterns. Coral environments also suffer from this. Cold waves and heat waves are becoming severe, extending to new regions and resulting in casualties. New viruses and vectors spread fatal deceases, expanding geographical extent. Climate change is likely to retard the present economic growth, because of the massive investment required for

  11. Chapter 6. Impacts of Climate Change on Oregon's Coasts and Estuaries in "Oregon Climate Change Assessment Report"

    EPA Science Inventory

    In 2007 the Oregon legislature created a new Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI), which is based at Oregon State University (OSU). As part of its charter, OCCRI is mandated to produce a biennial report for the state legislature synthesizing climate change impacts a...

  12. THE IMPACT OF THERMAL ENGINEERING RESEARCH ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

    SciTech Connect

    Phelan, Patrick; Abdelaziz, Omar; Otanicar, Todd; Phelan, Bernadette; Prasher, Ravi; Taylor, Robert; Tyagi, Himanshu

    2014-01-01

    Global climate change is recognized by many people around the world as being one of the most pressing issues facing our society today. The thermal engineering research community clearly plays an important role in addressing this critical issue, but what kind of thermal engineering research is, or will be, most impactful? In other words, in what directions should thermal engineering research be targeted in order to derive the greatest benefit with respect to global climate change? To answer this question we consider the potential reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, coupled with potential economic impacts, resulting from thermal engineering research. Here a new model framework is introduced that allows a technological, sector-by-sector analysis of GHG emissions avoidance. For each sector, we consider the maximum reduction in CO2 emissions due to such research, and the cost effectiveness of the new efficient technologies. The results are normalized on a country-by-country basis, where we consider the USA, the European Union, China, India, and Australia as representative countries or regions. Among energy supply-side technologies, improvements in coal-burning power generation are seen as having the most beneficial CO2 and economic impacts. The one demand-side technology considered, residential space cooling, offers positive but limited impacts. The proposed framework can be extended to include additional technologies and impacts, such as water consumption.

  13. Climate Change Impacts on North Dakota: Agriculture and Hydrology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirilenko, Andrei; Zhang, Xiaodong; Lim, Yeo Howe; Teng, William L.

    2011-01-01

    North Dakota is one of the principal producers of agricultural commodities in the USA, including over half of the total spring wheat production. While the region includes some of the best agricultural lands in the world, the steep temperature and precipitation gradients also make it one of the most sensitive to climate change. Over the 20th century, both the temperature and the pattern of precipitation in the state have changed; one of the most dramatic examples of the consequences of this change is the Devils Lake flooding. In two studies, we estimated the climate change impacts on crop yields and on the hydrology of the Devils Lake basin. The projections of six GCMs, driven by three SRES scenarios were statistically downscaled for multiple locations throughout the state, for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s climate. Averaged over all GCMs, there is a small increase in precipitation, by 0.6 - 1.1% in 2020s, 3.1 - 3.5% in 2050s, and 3.0 - 7.6% in 2080s. This change in precipitation varies with the seasons, with cold seasons becoming wetter and warm seasons not changing.

  14. Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development.

    PubMed

    Müller, Christoph; Waha, Katharina; Bondeau, Alberte; Heinke, Jens

    2014-08-01

    Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts.

  15. Regional Risk Assessment for climate change impacts on coastal aquifers.

    PubMed

    Iyalomhe, F; Rizzi, J; Pasini, S; Torresan, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

    2015-12-15

    Coastal aquifers have been identified as particularly vulnerable to impacts on water quantity and quality due to the high density of socio-economic activities and human assets in coastal regions and to the projected rising sea levels, contributing to the process of saltwater intrusion. This paper proposes a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology integrated with a chain of numerical models to evaluate potential climate change-related impacts on coastal aquifers and linked natural and human systems (i.e., wells, river, agricultural areas, lakes, forests and semi-natural environments). The RRA methodology employs Multi Criteria Decision Analysis methods and Geographic Information Systems functionalities to integrate heterogeneous spatial data on hazard, susceptibility and risk for saltwater intrusion and groundwater level variation. The proposed approach was applied on the Esino River basin (Italy) using future climate hazard scenarios based on a chain of climate, hydrological, hydraulic and groundwater system models running at different spatial scales. Models were forced with the IPCC SRES A1B emission scenario for the period 2071-2100 over four seasons (i.e., winter, spring, summer and autumn). Results indicate that in future seasons, climate change will cause few impacts on the lower Esino River valley. Groundwater level decrease will have limited effects: agricultural areas, forests and semi-natural environments will be at risk only in a region close to the coastline which covers less than 5% of the total surface of the considered receptors; less than 3.5% of the wells will be exposed in the worst scenario. Saltwater intrusion impact in future scenarios will be restricted to a narrow region close to the coastline (only few hundred meters), and thus it is expected to have very limited effects on the Esino coastal aquifer with no consequences on the considered natural and human systems.

  16. Interdisciplinary cooperation on impacts of climate change in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wardell, Lois; Chen, Linling; Strey, Sara

    2012-09-01

    Impact of Climate Change on Resources, Maritime Transport and Geopolitics in the Arctic and the Svalbard Area; Svalbard, Norway, 21-28 August 2011 Drastic changes in the Arctic climate directly relate to resource and transport development and complex geopolitical challenges in the Arctic. To encourage future interdisciplinary cooperation among political, social, and climate scientists, 30 early-career researchers from varied backgrounds—including climate change, resources, polar maritime transport, and geopolitics—assembled in Svalbard, Norway. Ola Johannessen, president of the Norwegian Scientific Academy of Polar Research, led this diverse group to highlight the importance of collaboration across disciplines for broadening the terms in which assessments are defined, thus collapsing distinctions between the physical and the human Arctic. He also highlighted the feasibility of conducting effective assessment exercises within short time frames. The group was also mentored by Willy Østreng, author of Science Without Boundaries: Interdisciplinarity in Research, Society, and Politics, who aided participants in understanding the process of interdisciplinary collaboration rather than creating an assemblage of discrete findings.

  17. Resolving the life cycle alters expected impacts of climate change.

    PubMed

    Levy, Ofir; Buckley, Lauren B; Keitt, Timothy H; Smith, Colton D; Boateng, Kwasi O; Kumar, Davina S; Angilletta, Michael J

    2015-08-22

    Recent models predict contrasting impacts of climate change on tropical and temperate species, but these models ignore how environmental stress and organismal tolerance change during the life cycle. For example, geographical ranges and extinction risks have been inferred from thermal constraints on activity during the adult stage. Yet, most animals pass through a sessile embryonic stage before reaching adulthood, making them more susceptible to warming climates than current models would suggest. By projecting microclimates at high spatio-temporal resolution and measuring thermal tolerances of embryos, we developed a life cycle model of population dynamics for North American lizards. Our analyses show that previous models dramatically underestimate the demographic impacts of climate change. A predicted loss of fitness in 2% of the USA by 2100 became 35% when considering embryonic performance in response to hourly fluctuations in soil temperature. Most lethal events would have been overlooked if we had ignored thermal stress during embryonic development or had averaged temperatures over time. Therefore, accurate forecasts require detailed knowledge of environmental conditions and thermal tolerances throughout the life cycle.

  18. Assessing climate change impact by integrated hydrological modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lajer Hojberg, Anker; Jørgen Henriksen, Hans; Olsen, Martin; der Keur Peter, van; Seaby, Lauren Paige; Troldborg, Lars; Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian

    2013-04-01

    Future climate may have a profound effect on the freshwater cycle, which must be taken into consideration by water management for future planning. Developments in the future climate are nevertheless uncertain, thus adding to the challenge of managing an uncertain system. To support the water managers at various levels in Denmark, the national water resources model (DK-model) (Højberg et al., 2012; Stisen et al., 2012) was used to propagate future climate to hydrological response under considerations of the main sources of uncertainty. The DK-model is a physically based and fully distributed model constructed on the basis of the MIKE SHE/MIKE11 model system describing groundwater and surface water systems and the interaction between the domains. The model has been constructed for the entire 43.000 km2 land area of Denmark only excluding minor islands. Future climate from General Circulation Models (GCM) was downscaled by Regional Climate Models (RCM) by a distribution-based scaling method (Seaby et al., 2012). The same dataset was used to train all combinations of GCM-RCMs and they were found to represent the mean and variance at the seasonal basis equally well. Changes in hydrological response were computed by comparing the short term development from the period 1990 - 2010 to 2021 - 2050, which is the time span relevant for water management. To account for uncertainty in future climate predictions, hydrological response from the DK-model using nine combinations of GCMs and RCMs was analysed for two catchments representing the various hydrogeological conditions in Denmark. Three GCM-RCM combinations displaying high, mean and low future impacts were selected as representative climate models for which climate impact studies were carried out for the entire country. Parameter uncertainty was addressed by sensitivity analysis and was generally found to be of less importance compared to the uncertainty spanned by the GCM-RCM combinations. Analysis of the simulations

  19. Climate Change, Human Impacts, and the Resilience of Coral Reefs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, T. P.; Baird, A. H.; Bellwood, D. R.; Card, M.; Connolly, S. R.; Folke, C.; Grosberg, R.; Hoegh-Guldberg, O.; Jackson, J. B. C.; Kleypas, J.; Lough, J. M.; Marshall, P.; Nyström, M.; Palumbi, S. R.; Pandolfi, J. M.; Rosen, B.; Roughgarden, J.

    2003-08-01

    The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

  20. Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs.

    PubMed

    Hughes, T P; Baird, A H; Bellwood, D R; Card, M; Connolly, S R; Folke, C; Grosberg, R; Hoegh-Guldberg, O; Jackson, J B C; Kleypas, J; Lough, J M; Marshall, P; Nyström, M; Palumbi, S R; Pandolfi, J M; Rosen, B; Roughgarden, J

    2003-08-15

    The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

  1. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.

    PubMed

    Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions.

  2. Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

    PubMed Central

    Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

    2016-01-01

    Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map’s coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. PMID:27618445

  3. Impacts of climate change on wheat in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Semenov, Mikhail A

    2009-04-06

    The frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events are likely to increase with global warming. However, it is not clear how these events might affect agricultural crops and whether yield losses resulting from severe droughts or heat stress will increase in the future. The aim of this paper is to analyse changes in the magnitude and spatial patterns of two impact indices for wheat: the probability of heat stress around flowering and the severity of drought stress. To compute these indices, we used a wheat simulation model combined with high-resolution climate scenarios based on the output from the Hadley Centre regional climate model at 18 sites in England and Wales. Despite higher temperature and lower summer precipitation predicted in the UK for the 2050s, the impact of drought stress on simulated wheat yield is predicted to be smaller than that at present, because wheat will mature earlier in a warmer climate and avoid severe summer drought. However, the probability of heat stress around flowering that might result in considerable yield losses is predicted to increase significantly. Breeding strategies for the future climate might need to focus on wheat varieties tolerant to high temperature rather than to drought.

  4. Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change.

    PubMed

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Karoly, David; Vicarelli, Marta; Neofotis, Peter; Wu, Qigang; Casassa, Gino; Menzel, Annette; Root, Terry L; Estrella, Nicole; Seguin, Bernard; Tryjanowski, Piotr; Liu, Chunzhen; Rawlins, Samuel; Imeson, Anton

    2008-05-15

    Significant changes in physical and biological systems are occurring on all continents and in most oceans, with a concentration of available data in Europe and North America. Most of these changes are in the direction expected with warming temperature. Here we show that these changes in natural systems since at least 1970 are occurring in regions of observed temperature increases, and that these temperature increases at continental scales cannot be explained by natural climate variations alone. Given the conclusions from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report that most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely to be due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, and furthermore that it is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic warming over the past 50 years averaged over each continent except Antarctica, we conclude that anthropogenic climate change is having a significant impact on physical and biological systems globally and in some continents.

  5. Modelling impacts of climate change on arable crop diseases: progress, challenges and applications.

    PubMed

    Newbery, Fay; Qi, Aiming; Fitt, Bruce Dl

    2016-08-01

    Combining climate change, crop growth and crop disease models to predict impacts of climate change on crop diseases can guide planning of climate change adaptation strategies to ensure future food security. This review summarises recent developments in modelling climate change impacts on crop diseases, emphasises some major challenges and highlights recent trends. The use of multi-model ensembles in climate change modelling and crop modelling is contributing towards measures of uncertainty in climate change impact projections but other aspects of uncertainty remain largely unexplored. Impact assessments are still concentrated on few crops and few diseases but are beginning to investigate arable crop disease dynamics at the landscape level.

  6. Climate change impacts on the design of stormwater drainage infrastructures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pereira, Mário; Macário, Eduarda; Gaspar, Sónia; Fernandes, Luís; Pinto, Joaquim

    2013-04-01

    In Portugal, as in many other countries of the world, the design of stormwater drainage infrastructure relies on the implicit assumption that the intense precipitation distribution is statistically stationary and based on the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves. However, observed changes in recent past climate and projections for future climate suggest differences in precipitation regime in Portugal, in particular, in what respects to the frequency and intensity of extreme events, thus leading to the need to evaluate the impact of potential climate change on IDF curves. The objective of this study is to assess the potential consequences of climate change in the design of drainage systems for rainwater and hence the need to review rules and legislation on this design, based on a comparative analysis between Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves defined in the Regulatory Decree n ° 23/95 of 23rd August, proposed by Matos and Silva (1986), and those obtained with observed data in meteorological stations representing the three rainfall zones recommended for Portugal and with data simulated by the COSMO-CLM regional climate model for recent past (C20) and future (A1B and B1) climate scenarios. The methodology adopted for the delineation of IDF curves, is based on study of Brandão et al. (2001) and includes: (i) precipitation disaggregation process for sub-daily (method fragments) and sub-hourly (disaggregation coefficients suggested by Brandão et al. 2001) scales; (ii) preliminary statistical exploratory analysis and fitting of the Gumbel distribution function to time series of maximum precipitation intensity for each of the ten durations; (iii) the use of the Gumbel inverse probability distribution to estimate maximum precipitation intensity values for eight return periods; (iv) linearization of IDF curves with logarithms and the estimation of the parameters a and b with robust regression after; and (v) correction of the bias introduced by the COSMO

  7. Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Darbyshire, Rebecca; Webb, Leanne; Goodwin, Ian; Barlow, E. W. R.

    2014-08-01

    Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed.

  8. Impacts of Climate Change on the California Electricity Infrastructure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dale, L. L.; Sathaye, J.; Lucena, A.; Koy, K.; Larsen, P.; Fitts, G.; Lewis, S. M.

    2012-12-01

    We present the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California , including temperature impacts on power plant capacity, electricity generation, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand; wildfire impacts near transmission lines; and sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities. End-of-century impacts were projected with respect to A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of transmission lines, and the demand for peak power. It shows that atmospheric warming may necessitate up to 38 percent additional peak generation capacity and up to 31 percent additional transmission capacity. The study demonstrates that key transmission corridors are vulnerable to increased fire frequency. For example it shows a 40 percent increased probability of wildfire exposure for some major transmission lines, including the transmission line bringing hydropower generation from the Pacific Northwest during peak demand periods. Finally, the study identifies energy infrastructure vulnerable to sea level encroachment. Up to 25 current coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding or compromised operation due to sea level rise.

  9. Toward Collective Impact for Climate Resilience: Maximizing Climate Change Education for Preparedness, Adaptation, and Mitigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ledley, T. S.; Niepold, F., III; McCaffrey, M.

    2014-12-01

    Increasing the capacity of society to make informed climate decisions based on scientific evidence is imperative. While a wide range of education programs and communication efforts to improve understanding and facilitate responsible effective decision-making have been developed in recent years, these efforts have been largely disconnected. The interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary nature of the problems and potential responses to climate change requires a broad range of expertise and a strategy that overcomes the inherent limitations of isolated programs and efforts. To extend the reach and impact of climate change education and engagement efforts, it is necessary to have a coordination that results in greater collective impact. The Collective Impact model, as described by Kania & Kramer (2011), requires five elements: 1) a common agenda; 2) shared measurement systems; 3) mutually reinforcing activities; 4) continuous communication; and 5) a well-funded backbone support organization. The CLEAN Network has facilitated a series of discussions at six professional meetings from late 2012 through spring 2014 to begin to develop and define the elements of collective impact on climate change education and engagement. These discussions have focused on getting input from the community on a common agenda and what a backbone support organization could do to help extend their reach and impact and enable a longer-term sustainability. These discussions will continue at future meetings, with the focus shifting to developing a common agenda and shared metrics. In this presentation we will summarize the outcomes of these discussions thus far, especially with respect to what activities a backbone support organization might provide to help increase the collective impact of climate change education effort and invite others to join the development of public-private partnership to improve the nations climate literacy. The cumulative input into this evolving discussion on collective

  10. Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yew Gan, Thian; Tan, Xuezhi

    2016-04-01

    Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow. Ref: Tan, X., and Gan, T. Y., 2015, Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada, Scientific Reports, Nature Publishing Group, 17767; doi: 10.1038/srep17767

  11. Selecting climate simulations for impact studies based on multivariate patterns of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas

    2015-04-01

    In climate change impact research it is crucial to carefully select the meteorological input for impact models. On the one hand, the number of feasible impact simulations is often restricted by practical constraints, which necessitates the selection of few climate simulations out of a larger ensemble without underestimating the spread of the entire ensemble. On the other hand, model selection should consider the fact that ensembles of climate simulations are often ensembles of opportunity, which may be subject to model inter-dependencies and biases. Bearing this in mind, we introduce an approach for model selection consisting of three steps: First, using principal component analysis for a multitude of meteorological parameters, to find common patterns of climate change within the multi-model ensemble. Second, detecting model similarities regarding these multivariate patterns using cluster analysis. And third, sampling models from each cluster, leading to a subset of representative simulations. We present an application based on the ENSEMBLES regional multi-model ensemble with the aim to provide input for a variety of climate impact studies. For meteorological parameters based on daily average values, we find that the two most dominating patterns of climate change relate to temperature and humidity patterns. For this specific set of parameters, the ensemble can be reduced from 20 to 5 simulations, still maintaining the essential climate change patterns of the whole ensemble. The proposed method enables the user to shrink the ensemble to a few representative members, conserving the model spread and accounting for model similarity. This reduces computational costs for climate impact modeling and enhances the quality of the ensemble at the same time, as it prevents double-counting of dependent simulations which would lead to biased statistics.

  12. Health Impacts of Air Pollution Under a Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kinney, P. L.; Knowlton, K.; Rosenthal, J.; Hogrefe, C.; Rosenzweig, C.; Solecki, W.

    2003-12-01

    Outdoor air pollution remains a serious public health problem in cities throughout the world. In the US, despite considerable progress in reducing emissions over the past 30 years, as many as 50,000 premature deaths each year have been attributed to airborne particulate matter alone. Tropospheric ozone has been associated with increased daily mortality and hospitalization rates, and with a variety of related respiratory problems. Weather plays an important role in the transport and transformation of air pollution. In particular, a warming climate is likely to promote the atmospheric reactions that are responsible for ozone and secondary aerosol production, as well as increasing emissions of many of their volatile precursors. Increasingly, efforts to address urban air pollution problems throughout the world will be complicated by trends and variability in climate. The New York Climate and Health Project (NYCHP) is developing and applying tools for integrated assessment of health impacts from air pollution and heat associated with climate and land-use changes in the New York City metropolitan region. Global climate change is modeled over the 21st century based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario using the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global Atmosphere-Ocean Model (GCM). Meteorological fields are downscaled to a 36 km grid over the eastern US using the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model. MM5 results are then used as input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for simulating air quality, with emissions based on the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE). To date, simulations have been performed for five summer seasons each during the 1990s and the 2050s. An evaluation of the present-day climate and air quality predictions indicates that the modeling system largely captures the observed climate-ozone system. Analysis of future-year predictions

  13. Alien plants confront expectations of climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Hulme, Philip E

    2014-09-01

    The success of alien plants in novel environments questions basic assumptions about the fate of native species under climate change. Aliens generally spread faster than the velocity of climate change, display considerable phenotypic plasticity as well as adaptation to new selection pressures, and their ranges are often shaped by biotic rather than climatic factors. Given that many native species also exhibit these attributes, their risk of extinction as a result of climate change might be overestimated.

  14. Health impact assessment of climate change in Bangladesh

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, Deborah Imel

    2003-05-01

    Global climate change (GCC) may have serious and irreversible impacts. Improved methods are needed to predict and quantify health impacts, so that appropriate risk management strategies can be focused on vulnerable areas. The disability-adjusted life year (DALY) is proposed as an effective tool in environmental health impact assessment (HIA). The DALY accounts for years of life lost to premature death and/or morbidity. Both the DALY and the determinants-of-health approach are applied to HIA of GCC in Bangladesh. Based on historical data, a major storm event may result in approximately 290 DALY per 1000 population, including both deaths and injuries, compared to a current all-cause rate of about 280 per 1000 in the region. A more precise result would require a large input of data; however, this level of analysis may be sufficient to rank risks, and to motivate and target risk management efforts.

  15. A Weather climate change Impact Study at Extreme Resolution (WISER)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gadian, A.; Burton, R.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Tye, M. R.; Holland, G. J.; Thielen, J.; Blyth, A. M.

    2014-12-01

    Understanding and simulation of weather scale processes is required to understand extremes in the rapidly changing climate. The resolution required to include meso-scale features, is still out of the reach of climate model resolution, and this project attempts to include the important meso-scale features. WISER (Weather climate change Impact Study at Extreme Resolution) is a regional climate study to use a numerical weather model (WRF), in a channel formulation (+/- 68 degrees latitude) at a resolution of 20 km at the equator reducing to 9 km at the Northern and Southern boundaries. The inner domain nested regional model at a resolution of 3-4 km over Western Europe aims at resolving the larger convective scale precipitation events statistically. (see figure for geometrical domain set up). The outer domain is driven by ERA interim climate reanalysis global fields for recent decades 1989-2001; the nested inner domain d02 is driven by the outer domain. The inner model climatological statistics are compared with observations and with those from the outer domain, with particular reference for the statistical convective precipitation extremes. The extremes of the pdfs are shown to be better represented by the increase in resolution and suggest that this could be a tool useful in examining the likely extremes in future climates. The data also provides an assessment of the uncertainty in the precipitation extremes and an alternative approach to ownscaling. The overall aim is to examine statistical changes in(a) general precipitation over western Europe and the UK,(b) in quantity and frequency of severe and hazardous convective rainfall events. The future work-plan is(i) to complete simulations for the decade 1989-2000 driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data(ii) to complete simulations for the same decade with boundary CESM/CAM climate model data to compute offset and bias corrections(iii) to complete climate scenarios for decadal periods, 2020-2030 initially and later 2050

  16. The Impact of Project-Based Climate Change Learning Experiences on Students' Broad Climate Literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    DeWaters, J.; Powers, S. E.; Dhaniyala, S.

    2014-12-01

    Evidence-based pedagogical approaches such as project- and inquiry-based techniques have been shown to promote effective learning in science and engineering. The impact of project-based learning experiences on middle school (MS), high school (HS), and undergraduate (UG) students' climate literacy was investigated as part of a NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) project. Project-based modules were developed and taught by MS and HS teachers who participated in climate change education workshops. UG students enrolled in a climate science course completed independent research projects that provided the basis for several of the HS/MS modules. All modules required students to acquire and analyze historical temperature data and future climate predictions, and apply their analysis to the solution of a societal or environmental problem related to our changing climate. Three versions of a quantitative survey were developed and used in a pre-test/post-test research design to help evaluate the project's impact on MS, HS, and UG students' climate literacy, which includes broad climate knowledge as well as affective and behavioral aspects. Content objectives were guided primarily by the 2009 document, Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. All three groups of students made modest but statistically significant cognitive (p<<0.001) and affective (p<0.01) gains; UG students also showed an increase in behavior scores (p=0.001). Results of an ANCOVA showed significant differences in students' cognitive (p<0.001), behavioral (p=0.005) and self-efficacy (p=0.012) outcomes among the 9 participating MS and HS classrooms, where both teacher and module content varied. The presentation will include a description of some key aspects of the project-based curricula developed and used in this research, the development and content of the climate literacy survey, and the interpretation of specific pre/post changes in participating students relative to the content

  17. Regional Actions to Address Climate Change Impacts on Water

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    EPA's ten regions work to address climate change on a local level, implementing regionally important solutions and working with stakeholders on the ground. Many regional partners work closely with EPA to better implement climate solutions

  18. Selecting climate simulations for impact studies based on multivariate patterns of climate change.

    PubMed

    Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas

    In climate change impact research it is crucial to carefully select the meteorological input for impact models. We present a method for model selection that enables the user to shrink the ensemble to a few representative members, conserving the model spread and accounting for model similarity. This is done in three steps: First, using principal component analysis for a multitude of meteorological parameters, to find common patterns of climate change within the multi-model ensemble. Second, detecting model similarities with regard to these multivariate patterns using cluster analysis. And third, sampling models from each cluster, to generate a subset of representative simulations. We present an application based on the ENSEMBLES regional multi-model ensemble with the aim to provide input for a variety of climate impact studies. We find that the two most dominant patterns of climate change relate to temperature and humidity patterns. The ensemble can be reduced from 25 to 5 simulations while still maintaining its essential characteristics. Having such a representative subset of simulations reduces computational costs for climate impact modeling and enhances the quality of the ensemble at the same time, as it prevents double-counting of dependent simulations that would lead to biased statistics.

  19. Health Impacts in a Changing Climate - An Overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Louis, V. R.; Phalkey, R. K.

    2016-05-01

    In the past decades the topic of climate change has been subjected to intense scientific scrutiny, and since the mid-1990's it has become an increasingly political issue. Because of increased temperatures and more frequent and intense extreme weather events, the number of direct injuries and deaths will increase, along with infectious diseases, whether food, water or vector-borne; respiratory and cardiovascular diseases are expected to rise due to worsened air pollution and extreme heat. In a context of on-going environmental degradation, local food-producing systems, both marine and terrestrial, will be affected and the risk of malnutrition, especially in children, will increase. These impacts on health and livelihood are expected to be significant factors in the spread of regional social crises, potentially leading to forced migration, conflicts and increased poverty. The link between health and climate change operates through a variety of pathways that are now well established. In addition to taking climate mitigation measures, it will also be necessary to take adaptation measures, such as strengthening health systems, improving preparedness and developing early warning systems. There is now a broad scientific consensus on the issue and the science is sufficiently robust to enable a coordinated response to meet this global challenge.

  20. Identifying alternate pathways for climate change to impact inland recreational fishers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hunt, Len M.; Fenichel, Eli P.; Fulton, David C.; Mendelsohn, Robert; Smith, Jordan W.; Tunney, Tyler D.; Lynch, Abigail J.; Paukert, Craig P.; Whitney, James E.

    2016-01-01

    Fisheries and human dimensions literature suggests that climate change influences inland recreational fishers in North America through three major pathways. The most widely recognized pathway suggests that climate change impacts habitat and fish populations (e.g., water temperature impacting fish survival) and cascades to impact fishers. Climate change also impacts recreational fishers by influencing environmental conditions that directly affect fishers (e.g., increased temperatures in northern climates resulting in extended open water fishing seasons and increased fishing effort). The final pathway occurs from climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts (e.g., refined energy policies result in higher fuel costs, making distant trips more expensive). To address limitations of past research (e.g., assessing climate change impacts for only one pathway at a time and not accounting for climate variability, extreme weather events, or heterogeneity among fishers), we encourage researchers to refocus their efforts to understand and document climate change impacts to inland fishers.

  1. Risk-based climate-change impact assessment for the water industry.

    PubMed

    Thorne, O M; Fenner, R A

    2009-01-01

    In response to a rapidly changing and highly variable climate, engineers are being asked to perform climate-change impact assessments on existing water industry systems. There is currently no single method of best practice for engineers to interpret output from global climate models (GCMs) and calculate probabilistic distributions of future climate changes as required for risk-based impact assessments. The simplified climate change impact assessment tool (SCIAT) has been developed to address the specific needs of the water industry and provides a tool to translate climate change projections into 'real world' impacts or for detailed statistical analysis. Through the use of SCIAT, water system operators are provided with knowledge of potential impacts and an associated probability of occurrence, enabling them to make informed, risk-based adaptation and planning decisions. This paper demonstrates the application of SCIAT to the consideration of the impacts of climate change on reservoir water quality under future climate scenarios.

  2. Potential impact of climate change on marine dimethyl sulfide emissions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bopp, Laurent; Aumont, Olivier; Belviso, Sauveur; Monfray, Patrick

    2003-02-01

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a biogenic compound produced in sea-surface water and outgased to the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere, DMS is a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in the unpolluted marine atmosphere. It has been postulated that climate may be partly modulated by variations in DMS production through a DMS-cloud condensation nuclei-albedo feedback. We present here a modelled estimation of the response of DMS sea-water concentrations and DMS fluxes to climate change, following previous work on marine DMS modeling (Aumont et al., 2002) and on the global warming impact on marine biology (Bopp et al., 2001). An atmosphere ocean general circulation model (GCM) was coupled to a marine biogeochemical scheme and used without flux correction to simulate climate response to increased greenhouse gases (a 1% increase per year in atmospheric CO2 until it has doubled). The predicted global distribution of DMS at 1 × CO2 compares reasonably well with observations; however, in the high latitudes, very elevated concentrations of DMS due to spring and summer blooms of Phaeocystis can not be reproduced. At 2 × CO2, the model estimates a small increase of global DMS flux to the atmosphere (+2%) but with large spatial heterogeneities (from -15% to +30% for the zonal mean). Mechanisms affecting DMS fluxes are changes in (1) marine biological productivity, (2) relative abundance of phytoplankton species and (3) wind intensity. The mean DMS flux perturbation we simulate represents a small negative feedback on global warming; however, the large regional changes may significantly impact regional temperature and precipitation patterns.

  3. The impacts of climate change on global irrigation water requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, X.; Cai, X.

    2011-12-01

    will lead to changes in regional food production, demand and trade, and will affect global food markets. It is also likely that the network and paths of the so-called global virtual water flow will be altered due to the impact of climate change on food production at the regional level.

  4. A new climate dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; Müller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

    2013-10-01

    In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines, systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalised patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilise a simplified relationships between ΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  5. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Alaska Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGuire, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts in Alaska. The resulting findings are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Summers are getting hotter and drier, with increasing evaporation outpacing increased precipitation. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Wildfires and insect problems are increasing. Climate plays a key role in determining the extent and severity of insect outbreaks and wildfire. The area burned in North America’s northern forest that spans Alaska and Canada tripled from the 1960s to the 1990s. During the 1990s, south-central Alaska experienced the largest outbreak of spruce bark beetles in the world because of warmer weather in all seasons of the year. Under changing climate conditions, the average area burned per year in Alaska is projected to double by the middle of this century10. By the end of this century, area burned by fire is projected to triple under a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario and to quadruple under a higher emissions scenario. Close-bodied lakes are declining in area. A continued decline in the area of surface water would present challenges for the management of natural resources and ecosystems on National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska. These refuges, which cover over 77 million acres (21 percent of Alaska) and comprise 81 percent of the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System, provide a breeding habitat for millions of waterfowl and shorebirds that winter in the lower 48 states. Permafrost thawing will damage public and private infrastructure. Land subsidence (sinking) associated with the thawing of permafrost presents substantial challenges to engineers attempting to preserve infrastructure in

  6. Relationship Between Climate Change Impact, Migration and Socioeconomic Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sann Oo, Kyaw

    2016-06-01

    Geospatial data are available in raster and vector formats and some of them are available in open data form. The technique and tools to handle those data are also available in open source. Though it is free of charge, the knowledge to utilize those data is limited to non-educated in the specific field. The data and technology should be promoted to those levels to utilize in required fields with priceless in developing countries. Before utilize open data, which are required to verify with local knowledge to become usable information for the local people as priceless data resources. Developing country, which economic is based in agriculture, required more information about precise weather data and weather variation by the climate change impact for their socioeconomic development. This study found that rural to urban migration occurs in the developing countries such agriculture based country likes Myanmar when the agriculture economic are affected by unpredictable impact by the climate change. The knowledge sharing using open data resources to non-educated local people is one of the curable solutions for the agriculture economy development in the country. Moreover, the study will find ways to reduce the rural to urban migration.

  7. Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cowie, Jonathan

    2001-05-01

    In recent years climate change has become recognised as the foremost environmental problem of the twenty-first century. Not only will climate change potentially affect the multibillion dollar energy strategies of countries worldwide, but it also could seriously affect many species, including our own. A fascinating introduction to the subject, this textbook provides a broad review of past, present and likely future climate change from the viewpoints of biology, ecology and human ecology. It will be of interest to a wide range of people, from students in the life sciences who need a brief overview of the basics of climate science, to atmospheric science, geography, and environmental science students who need to understand the biological and human ecological implications of climate change. It will also be a valuable reference for those involved in environmental monitoring, conservation, policy-making and policy lobbying. The first book to cover not only the human impacts on climate, but how climate change will affect humans and the species that we rely on Written in an accessible style, with specialist terms used only when necessary and thoroughly explained The author has years of experience conveying the views of biological science learned societies to policy-makers

  8. 76 FR 17962 - Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-31

    ... Geological Survey Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater... titled ``Strengthening the Scientific Understanding of Climate Change Impacts on Freshwater Resources of... freshwater resources that are likely to result from a changing climate. DATES: We must receive any...

  9. 78 FR 66817 - Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-06

    ... of Climate Change #0; #0; #0; Presidential Documents #0; #0; #0;#0;Federal Register / Vol. 78, No... ] Executive Order 13653 of November 1, 2013 Preparing the United States for the Impacts of Climate Change By... America, and in order to prepare the Nation for the impacts of climate change by undertaking actions...

  10. Climate change and the impact of extreme temperatures on aviation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coffel, E.; Horton, R.

    2014-12-01

    Weather is the most significant factor affecting aircraft operations, accounting for 70-80% of passenger delays and costing airlines hundreds of millions of dollars per year in lost revenue. Temperature and airport elevation significantly influence the maximum allowable takeoff weight of an aircraft by changing the surface air density and thus the lift produced at a given speed. For a given runway length, airport elevation, and aircraft type there is a temperature threshold above which the airplane cannot take off at its maximum weight and thus must be weight restricted. The number of summer days necessitating weight restriction has increased since 1980 along with the observed increase in surface temperature. Climate change is projected to increase mean temperatures at all airports and significantly increase the frequency and severity of extreme heat events at some. These changes will negatively affect aircraft performance, leading to increased weight restrictions especially at airports with short runways and little room to expand. For a Boeing 737-800 aircraft, we find that the number of weight restriction days between May and September will increase by 50-100% at four major airports in the United States by 2050-2070 under the RCP8.5 high emissions scenario. These performance reductions may have a significant economic effect on the airline industry, leading to lower profits and higher passenger fares. Increased weight restrictions have previously been identified as potential impacts of climate change, but this study is the first to quantify the effect of higher temperatures on commercial aviation.

  11. Climate and Agriculture: Model Inter-Comparison for Evaluating the Uncertainties in Climate Change Impact Assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geethalakshmi, V.; Lakshmanan, A.; Bhuvaneswari, K.; Rajalakshmi, D.; Sekhar, N. U.; Anbhazhagan, R.; Gurusamy, L.

    2011-12-01

    Presence of large uncertainties in climate models (CM) and in future emission scenarios makes it difficult to predict the long-term climate changes at regional scales. Climate models do a reasonable job of capturing the large-scale aspects of current climate but still contain systematic model errors adding uncertainty to the future projections. Using CM outputs in impact models also cascade the uncertainty in climate change research. A study was undertaken with the objective of evaluating the uncertainty of climate change predictions by comparing the outputs from Regional Climate Models (RCM) and their resultant impact on rice productivity in Bhavani basin of Tamil Nadu, India. Current and future climate data were developed using RCMs viz., RegCM3 and PRECIS considering SRES A1B scenario for 130 years (1971-2100). The RCM outputs were used in DSSAT and EPIC models for assessing the impact of climate change. Results were compared to assess the magnitude of uncertainty in predicting the future climate and the resultant impacts. Comparison of predicted current climate with observed data indicated that RegCM3 under estimates maximum temperature by 1.8 °C while, PRECIS over estimates by 1.1°C over 40 years (1971 - 2010). The minimum temperature was under estimated by both the models, but with varying magnitude (3.8 °C for RegCM3 and 1 °C for PRECIS). RegCM3 over predicted rainfall (14 %), in contrast, PRECIS underpredicted (30.9 %) the same. Future climate projections indicated gradual increase in maximum and minimum temperatures with progress of time. Increase of maximum and minimum temperatures in PRECIS was 3.7oC and 4.2oC respectively and in RegCM3, it was 3.1oC and 3.7oC by 2100. No clear trend could be observed for rainfall other than increase in the quantum compared to current rainfall. Rice yield simulated over Bhavani basin for current and future climate by DSSAT, without CO2 fertilization effect, indicated reduction of 356 and 217 Kg ha-1decade-1 for

  12. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

    PubMed

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-11-07

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

  13. Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

    PubMed Central

    Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

    2008-01-01

    Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

  14. Storm Tracks Changes and Their Impacts in a Warmer Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Y.; Ting, M.; Seager, R.; Huang, H.; Cane, M. A.

    2009-12-01

    Storm tracks play a major role in regulating the precipitation and hydrological cycle at middle latitudes. The changes in the location and intensity of the storm tracks as a result of increased greenhouse gases will have significant impacts on the poleward transport of heat, momentum and moisture. Recent studies have indicated a poleward shift and intensification of the storm tracks and midlatitude precipitation zone in the warming world that will lead to subtropical drying and higher latitude moistening. This study confirms this key feature for not only the annual mean but also different seasons based on the analysis of Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model simulations. Further analyses show that the meridional sensible and latent heat fluxes associated with the storm tracks shift poleward and intensify in both boreal summer and winter in the late 21st century. As an ultimate generation mechanism of the midlatitude eddy activities, baroclinic instability has been studied in the future climate as well as in the present climate experiments. It has been found that the trend in Eady growth rate is consistent with the poleward shift and intensification of the storm tracks in the middle latitudes of both hemispheres in both seasons except for the lower troposphere in northern winter. The increased meridional eddy transfer associated with the storm tracks in the lower troposphere in northern winter is more determined by the increased eddy intensity which overwhelms the decreased meridional temperature gradients as indicated by the mixing length theory. This study indicates the relevance of the changing characteristics of baroclinic instability in driving the storm tracks in response to global warming. Furthermore, in order to better understand the physical mechanisms of the changes in storm tracks, the changes in the energy budget of the atmosphere have also been investigated to link the storm tracks with the atmospheric general circulation. By combing the

  15. Climate change impacts on the temperature of recharge water in a temporate climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murdock, E. A.

    2015-12-01

    Groundwater outflows into headwater streams play an important role in controlling local stream temperature and maintaining habitat for cool and cold water fisheries. Because of the ecological and economic importance of these fisheries, there is significant concern about the impacts of climate change on these habitats. Many studies of stream temperature changes under climate change assume that groundwater outflows will vary with long-term mean air temperature, perhaps with a temporal lag to account for the relatively slow rate of heat diffusion through soils. This assumption, however, ignores the fact that climate change will also impact the temporal patterns of recharge in some regions. In Southern Wisconsin, much of the annual recharge comes from the spring snowmelt event, as a large amount of meltwater is released onto saturated soils with little to no active transpiration. Using the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model populated with climate date from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), we show that the temperature of water passing below the rooting zone in a simulated corn planting in Southern Wisconsin will change significantly less than the air temperature by midcentury. This finding highlights the importance of understanding the variability of heat flow mechanisms in the subsurface while assessing climate change impacts on surface water resources. In landscapes such as Wisconsin's driftless area, where deep aquifers feed numerous localized headwater streams, meltwater-driven recharge may provide a buffer against rising air temperatures for some time into the future. Fully understanding this dynamic will allow for targeted conservation efforts in those streams that are likely to show higher than average resilience to rising temperatures, but which remain vulnerable to development, stormwater runoff, agricultural pollution and other ecological threats. In a world with dwindling coldwater resources, identifying and

  16. Chicxulub impact, climate changes and mass-extinctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smit, J.

    2010-03-01

    sections mentioned above. At the K/Pg itself, no unambiguous indications for a sealevel change have been documented anywhere, although in the Gulf sometimes a tsunami or gravity flow deposit with Chicxulub ejecta has been mistaken for a transgressive sequence. Therefore, there is no obvious connection between any sealevel change and climate changes around K/PgB. The impact ejecta (Ir, shocked qz) are global and occur exactly at K/PgB. Thus far, only one impact, the Chicxulub impact has been identified. However, the occurrence of multiple impacts remains a distinct possibility, as double craters exist, and a shower of impacts, possibly as result of a breakup event (Baptistina, Bottke, 2007) in the asteroid belt is possible. However, such hypothesis requires extraordinary evidence because of the extremely small probability! Thus far, the evidence for an impact after K/PgB is based on ambiguous evidence in reworked sediments in Beloc, Haiti and Coxquihui, Mexico, but nowhere outside the Gulf of Mexico. Evidence for a Chicxulub impact about 0.3 Ma before another, equally large, impact at K/PgB likewise has been interpreted from disturbed sediments in the Gulf, and is therefore highly suspect (Keller, 2009). Widespread evidence from the double K/PgB ejecta layer in coal-swamp deposits in the US western interior demonstrates that the K/PgB impact and the Chicxulub impact are the same. This leaves the Chicxulub impact as the only agent that can be held responsible for the mass-extinctions. The question is, what environmental or climate changes were induced by the impact, and on what timescales? Pre-impact signals for change (diversity, stable isotope shifts) are influenced by leaching or bioturbation of the uppermost 10 cm of the Cretaceous. He-isotopes do not support a scenario where the Chicxulub impact occurs within a pedestal of cometary debris, the arrival of which could lead to environmental stress. The effects of the Chicxulub impact must have been almost immediate. Even

  17. Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

  18. Climate Change

    MedlinePlus

    ... in a place over a period of time. Climate change is major change in temperature, rainfall, snow, or ... by natural factors or by human activities. Today climate changes are occurring at an increasingly rapid rate. Climate ...

  19. Climate change impacts on flood seasonality in Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vormoor, Klaus; Heistermann, Maik; Lawrence, Deborah; Bronstert, Axel

    2013-04-01

    The hydrological impacts of climate change on floods have been studied by ensemble based modeling in 115 catchments in Norway (Lawrence & Hisdal 2011). Despite of a considerable variation in the projections, consistent regional patterns of hydrological change are evident. Spatial patterns of directional change in flood magnitude allow for drawing conclusions about dominating flood-generating processes and for differentiating regions with similar flood regimes. Since the magnitude of floods results from the seasonality of precipitation, snowmelt/snow storage, and the preconditions in a catchment, seasonal flood frequency analysis can help to understand the influence of flood-generating processes under a changing climate. Currently, regional patterns of flood regimes in Norway separate regions which are dominated by high flows during the spring and early summer snowmelt season (inland and northernmost regions) from regions where autumn and winter pluvial floods are dominant (western Norway along the coast). However, projected increase in winter temperature, reduced snow storage and earlier snowmelt will probably lead to a reduction in flood probability in inland and northern Norway. In western Norway and along the coast, the probability of large floods is likely to increase due to projected increases in seasonal and extreme rainfall. In addition, there are some areas which probably will be dominated by a mixed regime in the future where both snowmelt- and rainfall-dominated events will occur. Based on an ensemble model approach in a subset of representative catchments, we study the role of seasonality contributing to flood hazards in Norway. Seasonal flood frequency analyses are used to explore changes in flood seasonality. Peak flow series are analyzed using a Peak Over Threshold (POT) approach, and changes in the return periods are estimated based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). A model re-calibration is performed based on the series distance approach

  20. Impact of urbanization and land-use change on climate.

    PubMed

    Kalnay, Eugenia; Cai, Ming

    2003-05-29

    The most important anthropogenic influences on climate are the emission of greenhouse gases and changes in land use, such as urbanization and agriculture. But it has been difficult to separate these two influences because both tend to increase the daily mean surface temperature. The impact of urbanization has been estimated by comparing observations in cities with those in surrounding rural areas, but the results differ significantly depending on whether population data or satellite measurements of night light are used to classify urban and rural areas. Here we use the difference between trends in observed surface temperatures in the continental United States and the corresponding trends in a reconstruction of surface temperatures determined from a reanalysis of global weather over the past 50 years, which is insensitive to surface observations, to estimate the impact of land-use changes on surface warming. Our results suggest that half of the observed decrease in diurnal temperature range is due to urban and other land-use changes. Moreover, our estimate of 0.27 degrees C mean surface warming per century due to land-use changes is at least twice as high as previous estimates based on urbanization alone.

  1. Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada.

    PubMed

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

    2015-12-04

    Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow.

  2. Contribution of human and climate change impacts to changes in streamflow of Canada

    PubMed Central

    Tan, Xuezhi; Gan, Thian Yew

    2015-01-01

    Climate change exerts great influence on streamflow by changing precipitation, temperature, snowpack and potential evapotranspiration (PET), while human activities in a watershed can directly alter the runoff production and indirectly through affecting climatic variables. However, to separate contribution of anthropogenic and natural drivers to observed changes in streamflow is non-trivial. Here we estimated the direct influence of human activities and climate change effect to changes of the mean annual streamflow (MAS) of 96 Canadian watersheds based on the elasticity of streamflow in relation to precipitation, PET and human impacts such as land use and cover change. Elasticities of streamflow for each watershed are analytically derived using the Budyko Framework. We found that climate change generally caused an increase in MAS, while human impacts generally a decrease in MAS and such impact tends to become more severe with time, even though there are exceptions. Higher proportions of human contribution, compared to that of climate change contribution, resulted in generally decreased streamflow of Canada observed in recent decades. Furthermore, if without contributions from retreating glaciers to streamflow, human impact would have resulted in a more severe decrease in Canadian streamflow. PMID:26634433

  3. Ocean Biological Pump Sensitivities and Implications for Climate Change Impacts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Romanou, Anastasia

    2013-01-01

    The ocean is one of the principal reservoirs of CO2, a greenhouse gas, and therefore plays a crucial role in regulating Earth's climate. Currently, the ocean sequesters about a third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions, mitigating the human impact on climate. At the same time, the deeper ocean represents the largest carbon pool in the Earth System and processes that describe the transfer of carbon from the surface of the ocean to depth are intimately linked to the effectiveness of carbon sequestration.The ocean biological pump (OBP), which involves several biogeochemical processes, is a major pathway for transfer of carbon from the surface mixed layer into the ocean interior. About 75 of the carbon vertical gradient is due to the carbon pump with only 25 attributed to the solubility pump. However, the relative importance and role of the two pumps is poorly constrained. OBP is further divided to the organic carbon pump (soft tissue pump) and the carbonate pump, with the former exporting about 10 times more carbon than the latter through processes like remineralization.Major uncertainties about OBP, and hence in the carbon uptake and sequestration, stem from uncertainties in processes involved in OBP such as particulate organicinorganic carbon sinkingsettling, remineralization, microbial degradation of DOC and uptakegrowth rate changes of the ocean biology. The deep ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2 in scales of hundreds to thousands of years, but how the export efficiency (i.e. the fraction of total carbon fixation at the surface that is transported at depth) is affected by climate change remains largely undetermined. These processes affect the ocean chemistry (alkalinity, pH, DIC, particulate and dissolved organic carbon) as well as the ecology (biodiversity, functional groups and their interactions) in the ocean. It is important to have a rigorous, quantitative understanding of the uncertainties involved in the observational measurements, the models and the

  4. Climate change impacts on bumblebees converge across continents

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    For many species, geographical ranges are expanding toward the poles in response to climate change, while remaining stable along range edges nearest the equator. Using long term observations across Europe and North America over 110 years, we test for climate change-related range shifts in bumblebee ...

  5. Crop failure rates in a geoengineered climate: impact of climate change and marine cloud brightening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parkes, B.; Challinor, A.; Nicklin, K.

    2015-08-01

    The impact of geoengineering on crops has to date been studied by examining mean yields. We present the first work focusing on the rate of crop failures under a geoengineered climate. We investigate the impact of a future climate and a potential geoengineering scheme on the number of crop failures in two regions, Northeastern China and West Africa. Climate change associated with a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide increases the number of crop failures in Northeastern China while reducing the number of crop failures in West Africa. In both regions marine cloud brightening is likely to reduce the number crop failures, although it is more effective at reducing mild crop failure than severe crop failure. We find that water stress, rather than heat stress, is the main cause of crop failure in current, future and geoengineered climates. This demonstrates the importance of irrigation and breeding for tolerance to water stress as adaptation methods in all futures. Analysis of global rainfall under marine cloud brightening has the potential to significantly reduce the impact of climate change on global wheat and groundnut production.

  6. Impacts of climate change on infrastructure in permafrost regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beloloutskaia, M.; Anisimov, O.

    2003-04-01

    There is a growing evidence of enhanced warming over the permafrost regions, and significant impacts on natural and human systems are expected. Changes in the temperature, distribution, and depth of seasonal thawing of permafrost will have direct and immediate implications for the infrastructure built upon it. The mechanical strength of permafrost decreases with warming, resulting in damage to and possible failure of buildings, pipelines, and transportation facilities. Extensive infrastructure was developed in the Arctic largely in association with the extraction and transportation industries. Several large cities in Russia with few hundred thousand population are of particular concern since many buildings there have already been affected by the changes in permafrost properties. Detrimental changes in permafrost conditions are often not abrupt. Instead, they evolve gradually and can be predicted and monitored, allowing avoidance of catastrophic events and mitigation of negative consequences. Climate-induced threats to infrastructure in permafrost regions may be evaluated using a numerical "settlement" index, Iset, which allows to classify modern permafrost with respect to its potential for thermokarst development: Iset = dZ * W, where dZ is the relative change in the depth of seasonal thawing predicted by permafrost model for the conditions of the future climate and W is the volumetric proportion of near surface soil occupied by ground ice. Permafrost model of intermediate complexity (Koudriavtcev's model) was used with selected GCM-based scenarios of climate change to construct predictive maps of "settlement" index for the mid-21st century. Circumpolar permafrost area was partitioned into zones of high, moderate, and low hazard potential. Despite discrepancies in details, all scenarios yield a zone in the high-risk category distributed discontinuously around the margins of the Arctic Ocean, indicating high potential for coastal erosion. Several population centers

  7. Prediction technologies for assessment of climate change impacts

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Temperatures, precipitation, and weather patterns are changing, in response to increasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. With these relatively rapid changes, existing soil erosion prediction technologies that rely upon climate stationarity are potentially becoming less reliable. This is especiall...

  8. Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert S.; Maldonado, Julie; Quattrochi, Dale

    2011-01-01

    The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided

  9. Climate change impact assessment on food security in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ettema, Janneke; Aldrian, Edvin; de Bie, Kees; Jetten, Victor; Mannaerts, Chris

    2013-04-01

    As Indonesia is the world's fourth most populous country, food security is a persistent challenge. The potential impact of future climate change on the agricultural sector needs to be addressed in order to allow early implementation of mitigation strategies. The complex island topography and local sea-land-air interactions cannot adequately be represented in large scale General Climate Models (GCMs) nor visualized by TRMM. Downscaling is needed. Using meteorological observations and a simple statistical downscaling tool, local future projections are derived from state-of-the-art, large-scale GCM scenarios, provided by the CMIP5 project. To support the agriculture sector, providing information on especially rainfall and temperature variability is essential. Agricultural production forecast is influenced by several rain and temperature factors, such as rainy and dry season onset, offset and length, but also by daily and monthly minimum and maximum temperatures and its rainfall amount. A simple and advanced crop model will be used to address the sensitivity of different crops to temperature and rainfall variability, present-day and future. As case study area, Java Island is chosen as it is fourth largest island in Indonesia but contains more than half of the nation's population and dominates it politically and economically. The objective is to identify regions at agricultural risk due to changing patterns in precipitation and temperature.

  10. Climate change impacts on lake thermal dynamics and ecosystem vulnerabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sahoo, G. B; Forrest, A. L; Schladow, S. G ;; Reuter, J. E; Coats, R.; Dettinger, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Using water column temperature records collected since 1968, we analyzed the impacts of climate change on thermal properties, stability intensity, length of stratification, and deep mixing dynamics of Lake Tahoe using a modified stability index (SI). This new SI is easier to produce and is a more informative measure of deep lake stability than commonly used stability indices. The annual average SI increased at 16.62 kg/m2/decade although the summer (May–October) average SI increased at a higher rate (25.42 kg/m2/decade) during the period 1968–2014. This resulted in the lengthening of the stratification season by approximately 24 d. We simulated the lake thermal structure over a future 100 yr period using a lake hydrodynamic model driven by statistically downscaled outputs of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Model (GFDL) for two different green house gas emission scenarios (the A2 in which greenhouse-gas emissions increase rapidly throughout the 21st Century, and the B1 in which emissions slow and then level off by the late 21st Century). The results suggest a continuation and intensification of the already observed trends. The length of stratification duration and the annual average lake stability are projected to increase by 38 d and 12 d and 30.25 kg/m2/decade and 8.66 kg/m2/decade, respectively for GFDLA2 and GFDLB1, respectively during 2014–2098. The consequences of this change bear the hallmarks of climate change induced lake warming and possible exacerbation of existing water quality, quantity and ecosystem changes. The developed methodology could be extended and applied to other lakes as a tool to predict changes in stratification and mixing dynamics.

  11. Intraspecific variation buffers projected climate change impacts on Pinus contorta

    PubMed Central

    Oney, Brian; Reineking, Björn; O'Neill, Gregory; Kreyling, Juergen

    2013-01-01

    Species distribution modeling (SDM) is an important tool to assess the impact of global environmental change. Many species exhibit ecologically relevant intraspecific variation, and few studies have analyzed its relevance for SDM. Here, we compared three SDM techniques for the highly variable species Pinus contorta. First, applying a conventional SDM approach, we used MaxEnt to model the subject as a single species (species model), based on presence–absence observations. Second, we used MaxEnt to model each of the three most prevalent subspecies independently and combined their projected distributions (subspecies model). Finally, we used a universal growth transfer function (UTF), an approach to incorporate intraspecific variation utilizing provenance trial tree growth data. Different model approaches performed similarly when predicting current distributions. MaxEnt model discrimination was greater (AUC – species model: 0.94, subspecies model: 0.95, UTF: 0.89), but the UTF was better calibrated (slope and bias – species model: 1.31 and −0.58, subspecies model: 1.44 and −0.43, UTF: 1.01 and 0.04, respectively). Contrastingly, for future climatic conditions, projections of lodgepole pine habitat suitability diverged. In particular, when the species' intraspecific variability was acknowledged, the species was projected to better tolerate climatic change as related to suitable habitat without migration (subspecies model: 26% habitat loss or UTF: 24% habitat loss vs. species model: 60% habitat loss), and given unlimited migration may increase amount of suitable habitat (subspecies model: 8% habitat gain or UTF: 12% habitat gain vs. species model: 51% habitat loss) in the climatic period 2070–2100 (SRES A2 scenario, HADCM3). We conclude that models derived from within-species data produce different and better projections, and coincide with ecological theory. Furthermore, we conclude that intraspecific variation may buffer against adverse effects of climate

  12. Tolerance adaptation and precipitation changes complicate latitudinal patterns of climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Mastrandrea, Michael D

    2010-07-13

    Global patterns of biodiversity and comparisons between tropical and temperate ecosystems have pervaded ecology from its inception. However, the urgency in understanding these global patterns has been accentuated by the threat of rapid climate change. We apply an adaptive model of environmental tolerance evolution to global climate data and climate change model projections to examine the relative impacts of climate change on different regions of the globe. Our results project more adverse impacts of warming on tropical populations due to environmental tolerance adaptation to conditions of low interannual variability in temperature. When applied to present variability and future forecasts of precipitation data, the tolerance adaptation model found large reductions in fitness predicted for populations in high-latitude northern hemisphere regions, although some tropical regions had comparable reductions in fitness. We formulated an evolutionary regional climate change index (ERCCI) to additionally incorporate the predicted changes in the interannual variability of temperature and precipitation. Based on this index, we suggest that the magnitude of climate change impacts could be much more heterogeneous across latitude than previously thought. Specifically, tropical regions are likely to be just as affected as temperate regions and, in some regions under some circumstances, possibly more so.

  13. Climate Change Impact Uncertainties for Maize in Panama: Farm Information, Climate Projections, and Yield Sensitivities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ruane, Alex C.; Cecil, L. Dewayne; Horton, Radley M.; Gordon, Roman; McCollum, Raymond (Brown, Douglas); Brown, Douglas; Killough, Brian; Goldberg, Richard; Greeley, Adam P.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia

    2011-01-01

    We present results from a pilot project to characterize and bound multi-disciplinary uncertainties around the assessment of maize (Zea mays) production impacts using the CERES-Maize crop model in a climate-sensitive region with a variety of farming systems (Panama). Segunda coa (autumn) maize yield in Panama currently suffers occasionally from high water stress at the end of the growing season, however under future climate conditions warmer temperatures accelerate crop maturation and elevated CO (sub 2) concentrations improve water retention. This combination reduces end-of-season water stresses and eventually leads to small mean yield gains according to median projections, although accelerated maturation reduces yields in seasons with low water stresses. Calibrations of cultivar traits, soil profile, and fertilizer amounts are most important for representing baseline yields, however sensitivity to all management factors is reduced in an assessment of future yield changes (most dramatically for fertilizers), suggesting that yield changes may be more generalizable than absolute yields. Uncertainty around General Circulation Model (GCM)s' projected changes in rainfall gain in importance throughout the century, with yield changes strongly correlated with growing season rainfall totals. Climate changes are expected to be obscured by the large inter-annual variations in Panamanian climate that will continue to be the dominant influence on seasonal maize yield into the coming decades. The relatively high (A2) and low (B1) emissions scenarios show little difference in their impact on future maize yields until the end of the century. Uncertainties related to the sensitivity of CERES-Maize to carbon dioxide concentrations have a substantial influence on projected changes, and remain a significant obstacle to climate change impacts assessment. Finally, an investigation into the potential of simple statistical yield emulators based upon key climate variables characterizes the

  14. The American Climate Prospectus: a risk-centered analysis of the economic impacts of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jina, A.; Houser, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Delgado, M.; Larsen, K.; Mohan, S.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Wilson, P. S.; Muir-Wood, R.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in six sectors - crop yields, energy demand, coastal property, crime, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. The ACP is unique in its characterization of the full probability distribution of economic impacts of climate change throughout the 21st century, making it an extremely useful basis for risk assessments. Three key innovations allow for this characterization. First, climate projections from CMIP5 models are scaled to a temperature probability distribution derived from a coarser climate model (MAGICC). This allows a more accurate representation of the whole distribution of future climates (in particular the tails) than a simple ensemble average. These are downscaled both temporally and spatially. Second, a set of local sea level rise and tropical cyclone projections are used in conjunction with the most detailed dataset of coastal property in the US in order to capture the risks of rising seas and storm surge. Third, we base many of our sectors on empirically-derived responses to temperature and precipitation. Each of these dose-response functions is resampled many times to populate a statistical distribution. Combining these with uncertainty in emissions scenario, climate model, and weather, we create the full probability distribution of climate impacts from county up to national levels, as well as model the effects upon the economy as a whole. Results are presented as likelihood ranges, as well as changes to return intervals of extreme events. The ACP analysis allows us to compare between sectors to understand the magnitude of required policy responses, and also to identify risks through time. Many sectors displaying large impacts at the end of the century, like those of mortality, have smaller changes in the near-term, due to non-linearities in the response functions. Other sectors, like

  15. A new dataset for systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of global warming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heinke, J.; Ostberg, S.; Schaphoff, S.; Frieler, K.; M{ü}ller, C.; Gerten, D.; Meinshausen, M.; Lucht, W.

    2012-11-01

    In the ongoing political debate on climate change, global mean temperature change (ΔTglob) has become the yardstick by which mitigation costs, impacts from unavoided climate change, and adaptation requirements are discussed. For a scientifically informed discourse along these lines systematic assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob are required. The current availability of climate change scenarios constrains this type of assessment to a~narrow range of temperature change and/or a reduced ensemble of climate models. Here, a newly composed dataset of climate change scenarios is presented that addresses the specific requirements for global assessments of climate change impacts as a function of ΔTglob. A pattern-scaling approach is applied to extract generalized patterns of spatially explicit change in temperature, precipitation and cloudiness from 19 AOGCMs. The patterns are combined with scenarios of global mean temperature increase obtained from the reduced-complexity climate model MAGICC6 to create climate scenarios covering warming levels from 1.5 to 5 degrees above pre-industrial levels around the year 2100. The patterns are shown to sufficiently maintain the original AOGCMs' climate change properties, even though they, necessarily, utilize a simplified relationships betweenΔTglob and changes in local climate properties. The dataset (made available online upon final publication of this paper) facilitates systematic analyses of climate change impacts as it covers a wider and finer-spaced range of climate change scenarios than the original AOGCM simulations.

  16. Climate change and agriculture: Analysis of potential international impacts

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-31

    This symposium was held November 4--5, 1992 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The purpose of this conference was to provide a forum for exchange of state-the-art information on the effects of climate change on crop production, either positively or negatively. This publication contains four sections: (1) experimental studies of the responses of cotton and rice to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide and to varying temperature and water regimes; (2) simulation methodology studies dealing with the development of modeling techniques to assess the effects of changing carbon dioxide and climate factors on crop growth and yield; (3) regional agronomic implications of climate changes as predicted by global climate models; and (4) economic implications of crop yield changes predicted by climate models. Individual papers have been processed separately for inclusion in the appropriate data bases.

  17. Impacts of climate change and internal climate variability on french rivers streamflows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dayon, Gildas; Boé, Julien; Martin, Eric

    2016-04-01

    The assessment of the impacts of climate change often requires to set up long chains of modeling, from the model to estimate the future concentration of greenhouse gases to the impact model. Throughout the modeling chain, sources of uncertainty accumulate making the exploitation of results for the development of adaptation strategies difficult. It is proposed here to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological cycle over France and the associated uncertainties. The contribution of the uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and internal variability are addressed in this work. To have a large ensemble of climate simulations, the study is based on Global Climate Models (GCM) simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5), including several simulations from the same GCM to properly assess uncertainties from internal climate variability. Simulations from the four Radiative Concentration Pathway (RCP) are downscaled with a statistical method developed in a previous study (Dayon et al. 2015). The hydrological system Isba-Modcou is then driven by the downscaling results on a 8 km grid over France. Isba is a land surface model that calculates the energy and water balance and Modcou a hydrogeological model that routes the surface runoff given by Isba. Based on that framework, uncertainties uncertainties from greenhouse gases emission scenario, climate models and climate internal variability are evaluated. Their relative importance is described for the next decades and the end of this century. In a last part, uncertainties due to internal climate variability on streamflows simulated with downscaled GCM and Isba-Modcou are evaluated against observations and hydrological reconstructions on the whole 20th century. Hydrological reconstructions are based on the downscaling of recent atmospheric reanalyses of the 20th century and observations of temperature and precipitation. We show that the multi-decadal variability

  18. Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauri, H.; de Moel, H.; Ward, P. J.; Räsänen, T. A.; Keskinen, M.; Kummu, M.

    2012-12-01

    The transboundary Mekong River is facing two ongoing changes that are expected to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20-30 yr. We downscaled the output of five general circulation models (GCMs) that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For the hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact on hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia) between the baseline (1982-1992) and projected time period (2032-2042) ranges from -11% to +15% for the wet season and -10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25-160% higher dry season flows and 5-24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20-30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will increase the uncertainty of the

  19. The impacts of climate change on a northern calcareous grassland

    SciTech Connect

    Grime, J.P.; Kielty, J.P.; Corker, D.

    1995-06-01

    As part of an ambitious programme to study the impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function, field-based manipulations of temperature and rainfall have been imposed on an ancient Carboniferous limestone grassland. Using non-intrusive techniques developed at UCPE, factorial combinations of elevated winter temperature with either reduced or enhanced summer rainfall were applied to 3m x 3m plots with five replicates per treatment. Winter temperature was elevated by 3{degrees}C above ambient, summer rainfall was supplemented between June and September and artificial drought was imposed during July and August using automatic rainshelters. Results of point analysis, flowering surveys and D-vac suction sampling indicate that there are general responses and more complex species-specific responses to the treatments. Winter warming promoted; early flowering in some species, vegetative growth in others and in a few cases, both. Droughting and, unexpectedly, enhanced watering promoted tap-rooted species. Leafhopper emergence and leaf miner development occurred earlier in heated plots than unheated plots and total invertebrate community abundance was reduced in droughted plots and enhanced in watered plots. These results are the first to emerge from what will be a long-term study involving monitoring, climate manipulation and ecosystem modelling.

  20. Climate and change: simulating flooding impacts on urban transport network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pregnolato, Maria; Ford, Alistair; Dawson, Richard

    2015-04-01

    National-scale climate projections indicate that in the future there will be hotter and drier summers, warmer and wetter winters, together with rising sea levels. The frequency of extreme weather events is expected to increase, causing severe damage to the built environment and disruption of infrastructures (Dawson, 2007), whilst population growth and changed demographics are placing new demands on urban infrastructure. It is therefore essential to ensure infrastructure networks are robust to these changes. This research addresses these challenges by focussing on the development of probabilistic tools for managing risk by modelling urban transport networks within the context of extreme weather events. This paper presents a methodology to investigate the impacts of extreme weather events on urban environment, in particular infrastructure networks, through a combination of climate simulations and spatial representations. By overlaying spatial data on hazard thresholds from a flood model and a flood safety function, mitigated by potential adaptation strategies, different levels of disruption to commuting journeys on road networks are evaluated. The method follows the Catastrophe Modelling approach and it consists of a spatial model, combining deterministic loss models and probabilistic risk assessment techniques. It can be applied to present conditions as well as future uncertain scenarios, allowing the examination of the impacts alongside socio-economic and climate changes. The hazard is determined by simulating free surface water flooding, with the software CityCAT (Glenis et al., 2013). The outputs are overlapped to the spatial locations of a simple network model in GIS, which uses journey-to-work (JTW) observations, supplemented with speed and capacity information. To calculate the disruptive effect of flooding on transport networks, a function relating water depth to safe driving car speed has been developed by combining data from experimental reports (Morris et

  1. Climate change impacts on mycotoxin risks in US maize

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    To ensure future food security, it is crucial to understand how potential climate change scenarios will affect agriculture. One key area of interest is how climatic factors, both in the near- and the long-term future, could affect fungal infection of crops and mycotoxin production by these fungi. ...

  2. From global change to a butterfly flapping: biophysics and behaviour affect tropical climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Boggs, Carol L; Stamberger, Jeannie A; Deutsch, Curtis A; Ehrlich, Paul R

    2014-10-22

    Difficulty in characterizing the relationship between climatic variability and climate change vulnerability arises when we consider the multiple scales at which this variation occurs, be it temporal (from minute to annual) or spatial (from centimetres to kilometres). We studied populations of a single widely distributed butterfly species, Chlosyne lacinia, to examine the physiological, morphological, thermoregulatory and biophysical underpinnings of adaptation to tropical and temperate climates. Microclimatic and morphological data along with a biophysical model documented the importance of solar radiation in predicting butterfly body temperature. We also integrated the biophysics with a physiologically based insect fitness model to quantify the influence of solar radiation, morphology and behaviour on warming impact projections. While warming is projected to have some detrimental impacts on tropical ectotherms, fitness impacts in this study are not as negative as models that assume body and air temperature equivalence would suggest. We additionally show that behavioural thermoregulation can diminish direct warming impacts, though indirect thermoregulatory consequences could further complicate predictions. With these results, at multiple spatial and temporal scales, we show the importance of biophysics and behaviour for studying biodiversity consequences of global climate change, and stress that tropical climate change impacts are likely to be context-dependent.

  3. Climate change impacts on hydrological extremes in Central Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fokko Hattermann, Fred; Huang, Shaochun; Kundzewicz, Zbigniew W.; Hoffmann, Peter

    2016-04-01

    An increase of hydro-climatic extremes can be observed worldwide and is challenging national and regional risk management and adaptation plans. Our study presents and discusses possible trends in climate drivers and hydro-climatic extremes in Europe observed and under future climate conditions. In a case study for Germany, impacts of different regional climate scenario ensembles are compared. To this end, a hydrological model was applied to transform the scenarios data into river runoff for more than 5000 river reaches in Germany. Extreme Value Distributions have been fitted to the hydrographs of the river reaches to derive the basic flood statistics. The results for each river reach have been linked to related damage functions as provided by the German Insurance Association considering damages on buildings and small enterprises. The robust result is that under scenario conditions a significant increase in flood related losses can be expected in Germany, while also the number of low flow events may rise.

  4. Characterizing climate change impacts on human exposures to air pollutants

    EPA Science Inventory

    Human exposures to air pollutants such as ozone (O3) have the potential to be altered by changes in climate through multiple factors that drive population exposures, including: ambient pollutant concentrations, human activity patterns, population sizes and distributions, and hous...

  5. Impact of climate change on runoff pollution in urban environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coutu, S.; Kramer, S.; Barry, D. A.; Roudier, P.

    2012-12-01

    Runoff from urban environments is generally contaminated. These contaminants mostly originate from road traffic and building envelopes. Facade envelopes generate lead, zinc and even biocides, which are used for facade protection. Road traffic produces particles from tires and brakes. The transport of these pollutants to the environment is controlled by rainfall. The interval, duration and intensity of rainfall events are important as the dynamics of the pollutants are often modeled with non-linear buildup/washoff functions. Buildup occurs during dry weather when pollution accumulates, and is subsequently washed-off at the time of the following rainfall, contaminating surface runoff. Climate predictions include modified rainfall distributions, with changes in both number and intensity of events, even if the expected annual rainfall varies little. Consequently, pollutant concentrations in urban runoff driven by buildup/washoff processes will be affected by these changes in rainfall distributions. We investigated to what extent modifications in future rainfall distributions will impact the concentrations of pollutants present in urban surface runoff. The study used the example of Lausanne, Switzerland (temperate climate zone). Three emission scenarios (time horizon 2090), multiple combinations of RCM/GCM and modifications in rain event frequency were used to simulate future rainfall distributions with various characteristics. Simulated rainfall events were used as inputs for four pairs of buildup/washoff models, in order to compare future pollution concentrations in surface runoff. In this way, uncertainty in model structure was also investigated. Future concentrations were estimated to be between ±40% of today's concentrations depending on the season and, importantly, on the choice of the RCM/GCM model. Overall, however, the dominant factor was the uncertainty inherent in buildup/washoff models, which dominated over the uncertainty in future rainfall distributions

  6. Climate Change Impacts in the Upper Rio Grande Catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heikkila, T.; Siegfried, T. U.; Sellars, S. L.; Schlager, E.

    2010-12-01

    In the US Southwest, evidence of increased future drought severity and duration in the context of climate change has been detected. Considering the already difficult water distribution and allocation strategies within the region, we are investigating the Costilla Creek, a tributary to the Rio Grande. The catchment is located in Costilla county in Colorado from where on runoff is crossing boundaries between Colorado and New Mexico three times before its confluence with the Rio Grande in New Mexico. Water allocation is governed by an interstate compact between Colorado and New Mexico. While the states have been relatively successful in complying with the compact’s allocation rules, the Costilla Creek catchment has experienced interstate upstream/downstream conflict, mainly during irrigation seasons. Whether or not the states will be able to avert conflict in the future and maintain compliance with the compact, is a critical question. The situation in the relatively small catchment is not unique. Various interstate watersheds, including the entire Rio Grande basin, the La Plata, Arkansas, and Colorado, are expected to face similar impacts from climate change, yet the water compacts that govern them may not be structured to adapt to these conditions. Looking at the Costilla Creek offers a valuable starting point for understanding how to model these effects across various basins. We have developed a lumped-parameter rainfall-runoff model including snow storage of the Costilla Creek watershed. Temperature and precipitation data from NCRS - SNOTEL stations together with USGS gauging station data were utilized for model calibration and validation. ISCCP solar radiation data and temperature data were used to estimate irrigation water demand in irrigated agriculture. The model is driven by the IPCC SRES A2 scenario. GCM ensemble averaged temperature / precipitation trends were extracted for the upper Rio Grande region. 50 year precipitation simulations were created using a

  7. Arctic marine mammals and climate change: impacts and resilience.

    PubMed

    Moore, Sue E; Huntington, Henry P

    2008-03-01

    Evolutionary selection has refined the life histories of seven species (three cetacean [narwhal, beluga, and bowhead whales], three pinniped [walrus, ringed, and bearded seals], and the polar bear) to spatial and temporal domains influenced by the seasonal extremes and variability of sea ice, temperature, and day length that define the Arctic. Recent changes in Arctic climate may challenge the adaptive capability of these species. Nine other species (five cetacean [fin, humpback, minke, gray, and killer whales] and four pinniped [harp, hooded, ribbon, and spotted seals]) seasonally occupy Arctic and subarctic habitats and may be poised to encroach into more northern latitudes and to remain there longer, thereby competing with extant Arctic species. A synthesis of the impacts of climate change on all these species hinges on sea ice, in its role as: (1) platform, (2) marine ecosystem foundation, and (3) barrier to non-ice-adapted marine mammals and human commercial activities. Therefore, impacts are categorized for: (1) ice-obligate species that rely on sea ice platforms, (2) ice-associated species that are adapted to sea ice-dominated ecosystems, and (3) seasonally migrant species for which sea ice can act as a barrier. An assessment of resilience is far more speculative, as any number of scenarios can be envisioned, most of them involving potential trophic cascades and anticipated human perturbations. Here we provide resilience scenarios for the three ice-related species categories relative to four regions defined by projections of sea ice reductions by 2050 and extant shelf oceanography. These resilience scenarios suggest that: (1) some populations of ice-obligate marine mammals will survive in two regions with sea ice refugia, while other stocks may adapt to ice-free coastal habitats, (2) ice-associated species may find suitable feeding opportunities within the two regions with sea ice refugia and, if capable of shifting among available prey, may benefit from

  8. Impacts of climate change and past land use change on the water resources in Pune, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagner, P. D.; Kumar, S.; Schneider, K.

    2012-12-01

    Global change affects local and regional water resources and is therefore of major concern in current hydrologic research. Especially in regions with scarce water resources, high climate sensitivity, and/or dynamic socio-economic development, research on developing suitable adaptation and mitigation strategies is needed. In this study, we used the well-established and widely-used hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) to study the impact of climate change and past land use change on water resources. Our study aims at analyzing the impact of global change on the water balance components in the meso-scale Mula and Mutha Rivers catchment upstream of the city of Pune, India. To analyze climate change impacts regional climate model data based on IPCC emission scenario A1B was used by employing a downscaling method that rearranges historically measured data. The hydrologic model was run with the rearranged scenario weather data and model results were analyzed for the scenario period from 2020 to 2099. Past land use changes between 1989 and 2009 were identified with the help of three multi-temporal land use classifications, which were based on multi-spectral satellite data. Two model runs were performed and compared using the land use classifications of 1989 and 2009. Climate change leads to a slight increase of evapotranspiration. Particularly in the rainy season and in the first months of the dry season higher evapotranspiration can be observed. Towards the end of the scenario period low water storages in the major dams of the catchment at the beginning of the dry season indicate severe impacts on water availability. The impacts of land use changes balance out on the catchment scale and are hence more obvious at the sub-basin scale, where e.g., urbanization results in increased runoff and decreased evapotranspiration.

  9. Future changes in Mekong River hydrology: impact of climate change and reservoir operation on discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lauri, H.; de Moel, H.; Ward, P. J.; Räsänen, T. A.; Keskinen, M.; Kummu, M.

    2012-05-01

    The transboundary Mekong River is facing two on-going changes that are estimated to significantly impact its hydrology and the characteristics of its exceptional flood pulse. The rapid economic development of the riparian countries has led to massive plans for hydropower construction, and the projected climate change is expected to alter the monsoon patterns and increase temperature in the basin. The aim of this study is to assess the cumulative impact of these factors on the hydrology of the Mekong within next 20-30 yr. We downscaled output of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) that were found to perform well in the Mekong region. For the simulation of reservoir operation, we used an optimisation approach to estimate the operation of multiple reservoirs, including both existing and planned hydropower reservoirs. For hydrological assessment, we used a distributed hydrological model, VMod, with a grid resolution of 5 km × 5 km. In terms of climate change's impact to hydrology, we found a high variation in the discharge results depending on which of the GCMs is used as input. The simulated change in discharge at Kratie (Cambodia) between the baseline (1982-1992) and projected time period (2032-2042) ranges from -11% to +15% for the wet season and -10% to +13% for the dry season. Our analysis also shows that the changes in discharge due to planned reservoir operations are clearly larger than those simulated due to climate change: 25-160% higher dry season flows and 5-24% lower flood peaks in Kratie. The projected cumulative impacts follow rather closely the reservoir operation impacts, with an envelope around them induced by the different GCMs. Our results thus indicate that within the coming 20-30 yr, the operation of planned hydropower reservoirs is likely to have a larger impact on the Mekong hydrograph than the impacts of climate change, particularly during the dry season. On the other hand, climate change will increase the uncertainty of the estimated

  10. DESYCO: a Decision Support System to provide climate services for coastal stakeholders dealing with climate change impacts.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torresan, S.; Gallina, V.; Giannini, V.; Rizzi, J.; Zabeo, A.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

    2012-04-01

    At the international level climate services are recognized as innovative tools aimed at providing and distributing climate data and information according to the needs of end-users. Furthermore, needs-based climate services are extremely effective to manage climate risks and take advantage of the opportunities associated with climate change impacts. To date, climate services are mainly related to climate models that supply climate data (e.g. temperature, precipitations) at different spatial and time scales. However, there is a significant gap of tools aimed at providing information about risks and impacts induced by climate change and allowing non-expert stakeholders to use both climate-model and climate-impact data. DESYCO is a GIS-Decision Support System aimed at the integrated assessment of multiple climate change impacts on vulnerable coastal systems (e.g. beaches, river deltas, estuaries and lagoons, wetlands, agricultural and urban areas). It is an open source software that manages different input data (e.g. raster or shapefiles) coming from climate models (e.g. global and regional climate projections) and high resolution impact models (e.g. hydrodynamic, hydrological and biogeochemical simulations) in order to provide hazard, exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the identification and prioritization of hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7) DESYCO is proposed as an helpful tool to bridge the gap between climate data and stakeholder needs and will be applied to the coastal area of the North Adriatic Sea (Italy) in order to provide climate services for local authorities involved in coastal zone management. Accordingly, a first workshop was held in Venice (Italy) with coastal authorities, climate experts and climate change risk experts, in order to start an iterative exchange of information about the knowledge related to climate change, climate

  11. 'Changing climate, changing health, changing stories' profile: using an EcoHealth approach to explore impacts of climate change on inuit health.

    PubMed

    Harper, S L; Edge, V L; Cunsolo Willox, A

    2012-03-01

    Global climate change and its impact on public health exemplify the challenge of managing complexity and uncertainty in health research. The Canadian North is currently experiencing dramatic shifts in climate, resulting in environmental changes which impact Inuit livelihoods, cultural practices, and health. For researchers investigating potential climate change impacts on Inuit health, it has become clear that comprehensive and meaningful research outcomes depend on taking a systemic and transdisciplinary approach that engages local citizens in project design, data collection, and analysis. While it is increasingly recognised that using approaches that embrace complexity is a necessity in public health, mobilizing such approaches from theory into practice can be challenging. In 2009, the Rigolet Inuit Community Government in Rigolet, Nunatsiavut, Canada partnered with a transdisciplinary team of researchers, health practitioners, and community storytelling facilitators to create the Changing Climate, Changing Health, Changing Stories project, aimed at developing a multi-media participatory, community-run methodological strategy to gather locally appropriate and meaningful data to explore climate-health relationships. The goal of this profile paper is to describe how an EcoHealth approach guided by principles of transdisciplinarity, community participation, and social equity was used to plan and implement this climate-health research project. An overview of the project, including project development, research methods, project outcomes to date, and challenges encountered, is presented. Though introduced in this one case study, the processes, methods, and lessons learned are broadly applicable to researchers and communities interested in implementing EcoHealth approaches in community-based research.

  12. Impact of regional climate change on human health.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan A; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A

    2005-11-17

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30 years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  13. Impact of regional climate change on human health

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patz, Jonathan A.; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Holloway, Tracey; Foley, Jonathan A.

    2005-11-01

    The World Health Organisation estimates that the warming and precipitation trends due to anthropogenic climate change of the past 30years already claim over 150,000 lives annually. Many prevalent human diseases are linked to climate fluctuations, from cardiovascular mortality and respiratory illnesses due to heatwaves, to altered transmission of infectious diseases and malnutrition from crop failures. Uncertainty remains in attributing the expansion or resurgence of diseases to climate change, owing to lack of long-term, high-quality data sets as well as the large influence of socio-economic factors and changes in immunity and drug resistance. Here we review the growing evidence that climate-health relationships pose increasing health risks under future projections of climate change and that the warming trend over recent decades has already contributed to increased morbidity and mortality in many regions of the world. Potentially vulnerable regions include the temperate latitudes, which are projected to warm disproportionately, the regions around the Pacific and Indian oceans that are currently subjected to large rainfall variability due to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation sub-Saharan Africa and sprawling cities where the urban heat island effect could intensify extreme climatic events.

  14. Developing a National Climate Indicators System to Track Climate Changes, Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenney, M. A.; Janetos, A. C.; Arndt, D.; Chen, R. S.; Pouyat, R.; Anderson, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. Part of the vision, which is now under development, for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, Atmospheric Composition, Physical Climate Variability and Change, Sectors and Resources of Concern, and Adaptation and Mitigation Responses. This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at spatial

  15. Developing a System of National Climate Assessment Indicators to Track Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerabilities, and Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janetos, A. C.; Kenney, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Arndt, D.

    2012-12-01

    The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/). Part of the vision for the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process is a system of physical, ecological, and societal indicators that communicate key aspects of the physical climate, climate impacts, vulnerabilities, and preparedness for the purpose of informing both decision makers and the public with scientifically valid information that is useful to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region. These indicators will be tracked as a part of ongoing assessment activities, with adjustments as necessary to adapt to changing conditions and understanding. The indicators will be reviewed and updated so that the system adapts to new information. The NCA indicator system is not intended to serve as a vehicle for documenting rigorous cause and effect relationships. It is reasonable, however, for it to serve as a guide to those factors that affect the evolution of variability and change in the climate system, the resources and sectors of concern that are affected by it, and how society chooses to respond. Different components of the end-to-end climate issue serve as categories within which to organize an end-to-end system of indicators: Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks Atmospheric Composition Physical Climate Variability and Change Sectors and Resources of Concern Adaptation and Mitigation Responses This framing has several advantages. It can be used to identify the different components of the end-to-end climate issue that both decision-makers and researchers are interested in. It is independent of scale, and therefore allows the indicators themselves to be described at

  16. Impacts of climate and land use change on reservoir sedimentation

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Impacts of evolving climate and implementation of upstream soil conservation measures on sedimentation of the Fort Cobb Reservoir in West-Central Oklahoma are investigated. Conservation practices before the 1950s were few. Between 1950 and 2008, extensive soil conservation measures were implemented...

  17. Long-term forest monitoring in Switzerland: Assessing climate, climate change impacts

    SciTech Connect

    Kraeuchi, N.

    1996-12-31

    This paper discusses successional characteristics of forest ecosystems as influenced by a changing environment, and it focuses on the potential risks resulting from this change. In the early 90`s, a long-term forest monitoring program has been established in Switzerland. The primary aim of this program is to identify and evaluate changes in the structure and function of selected forest ecosystems. To assess the potential risks arising with changing weather patterns, a total of 15 monitoring plots have been chosen according to different selection criteria, namely site homogeneity and site sensitivity to climate change and air pollution. To assess these risks, FORSUM a forest succession model for Central Europe is applied to analyze the forest succession on the LTFER plots based on the new IPCC 95 climate scenarios. Forest succession models can be used to evaluate climate change impacts on forest ecosystems, even though some parameters are highly uncertain or are even unknown. Detailed analysis of the 15 case studies will help to identify high and low risk forest areas in Switzerland and to evaluate the long-term sustainability of Swiss forest, currently at a risk from a number of anthropogenic and biogenic stresses.

  18. Climate Change Impact on Sugarcane Production in Developing Countries

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A combination of long-term change in the weather patterns worldwide (Global climate change), caused by natural processes and anthropogenic factors, may result in major environmental issues that have affected and will continuously affect agriculture. Increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrat...

  19. Assessing the Impacts of Climate Change on Drinking Water Treatment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change may affect both surface water and ground water quality. Increases (or decreases) in precipitation and related changes in flow can result in problematic turbidity levels, increased levels of organic matter, high levels of bacteria, virus and parasites and increased...

  20. Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering bald eagles

    PubMed Central

    Harvey, Chris J; Moriarty, Pamela E; Salathé Jr, Eric P

    2012-01-01

    Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are recovering from severe population declines, and are exerting pressure on food resources in some areas. Thousands of bald eagles overwinter near Puget Sound, primarily to feed on chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) carcasses. We used modeling techniques to examine how anticipated climate changes will affect energetic demands of overwintering bald eagles. We applied a regional downscaling method to two global climate change models to obtain hourly temperature, precipitation, wind, and longwave radiation estimates at the mouths of three Puget Sound tributaries (the Skagit, Hamma Hamma, and Nisqually rivers) in two decades, the 1970s and the 2050s. Climate data were used to drive bald eagle bioenergetics models from December to February for each river, year, and decade. Bald eagle bioenergetics were insensitive to climate change: despite warmer winters in the 2050s, particularly near the Nisqually River, bald eagle food requirements declined only slightly (<1%). However, the warming climate caused salmon carcasses to decompose more rapidly, resulting in 11% to 14% less annual carcass biomass available to eagles in the 2050s. That estimate is likely conservative, as it does not account for decreased availability of carcasses due to anticipated increases in winter stream flow. Future climate-driven declines in winter food availability, coupled with a growing bald eagle population, may force eagles to seek alternate prey in the Puget Sound area or in more remote ecosystems. PMID:22822430

  1. Modeling climate change impacts on overwintering bald eagles.

    PubMed

    Harvey, Chris J; Moriarty, Pamela E; Salathé, Eric P

    2012-03-01

    Bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) are recovering from severe population declines, and are exerting pressure on food resources in some areas. Thousands of bald eagles overwinter near Puget Sound, primarily to feed on chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) carcasses. We used modeling techniques to examine how anticipated climate changes will affect energetic demands of overwintering bald eagles. We applied a regional downscaling method to two global climate change models to obtain hourly temperature, precipitation, wind, and longwave radiation estimates at the mouths of three Puget Sound tributaries (the Skagit, Hamma Hamma, and Nisqually rivers) in two decades, the 1970s and the 2050s. Climate data were used to drive bald eagle bioenergetics models from December to February for each river, year, and decade. Bald eagle bioenergetics were insensitive to climate change: despite warmer winters in the 2050s, particularly near the Nisqually River, bald eagle food requirements declined only slightly (<1%). However, the warming climate caused salmon carcasses to decompose more rapidly, resulting in 11% to 14% less annual carcass biomass available to eagles in the 2050s. That estimate is likely conservative, as it does not account for decreased availability of carcasses due to anticipated increases in winter stream flow. Future climate-driven declines in winter food availability, coupled with a growing bald eagle population, may force eagles to seek alternate prey in the Puget Sound area or in more remote ecosystems.

  2. Choosing and using climate change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amy K. Snover,; Nathan J. Mantua,; Littell, Jeremy; Michael A. Alexander,; Michelle M. McClure,; Janet Nye,

    2013-01-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment.

  3. [Environmental pollution, climate variability and climate change: a review of health impacts on the Peruvian population].

    PubMed

    Gonzales, Gustavo F; Zevallos, Alisson; Gonzales-Castañeda, Cynthia; Nuñez, Denisse; Gastañaga, Carmen; Cabezas, César; Naeher, Luke; Levy, Karen; Steenland, Kyle

    2014-01-01

    This article is a review of the pollution of water, air and the effect of climate change on the health of the Peruvian population. A major air pollutant is particulate matter less than 2.5 μ (PM 2.5). In Lima, 2,300 premature deaths annually are attributable to this pollutant. Another problem is household air pollution by using stoves burning biomass fuels, where excessive indoor exposure to PM 2.5 inside the household is responsible for approximately 3,000 annual premature deaths among adults, with another unknown number of deaths among children due to respiratory infections. Water pollution is caused by sewage discharges into rivers, minerals (arsenic) from various sources, and failure of water treatment plants. In Peru, climate change may impact the frequency and severity of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has been associated with an increase in cases of diseases such as cholera, malaria and dengue. Climate change increases the temperature and can extend the areas affected by vector-borne diseases, have impact on the availability of water and contamination of the air. In conclusion, Peru is going through a transition of environmental risk factors, where traditional and modern risks coexist and infectious and chronic problems remain, some of which are associated with problems of pollution of water and air.

  4. Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

    PubMed

    Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

    2013-01-01

    There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

  5. A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using an integrated modeling methodology

    EPA Science Inventory

    Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposu...

  6. Impact of Climate Change on Five Major Crop Fungal Diseases: Building Climatic Indicators of Infection Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Launay, M.; Caubel, J.; Bourgeois, G.; Huard, F.; Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, I.

    2013-12-01

    The climate change will modify the severity and occurrence of fungal crop diseases, as the bioclimatic niches of pathogens will shift according to temperature and rainfall patterns evolution. Therefore it becomes necessary to integrate fungal disease pressure assessment into evaluation tools of crop suitability at the regional level. The aim of this study was to build two climatic indicators, the Average Infection Efficiency (AIE) and the Number of Infection Days (NID), quantifying the potential effect of climate on infection intensity and occurrence. A simple and continuous function was developed to calculate them, which is easy to parameterize from experimental measurements, usable on large spatial scales and adaptable to various pathogens. The evolution of those climatic indicators was then studied for five major fungal crop diseases in Northern France, the phoma of oilseed rape, the potato late blight, the downy mildew of grape, the leaf rust of wheat and the net blotch of barley. These indicators were applied on a multisite analysis in Northern France. They were calculated during the crop cycle when the host plant is able to be infected, over the period between 1970 and 2100 for the balanced scenario of climate change A1B. In late spring and summer, higher temperatures combined with lower humidity reduced the risk of infection of potato late blight and downy mildew of grape. In autumn and spring the balance between warmer temperatures and lower humidity determined the risk of infection on oilseed rape and cereals: increased risk in late autumn and early spring, and decreased risk in early autumn and mid-spring when low humidity becomes limiting. This statement highlighted the need for using between year scale for a relevant analysis of climate change impact on infection risk. The indicators we developed are thus useful for land management at regional scale and medium term, in particular for stakeholders who need decision support tools through which they could

  7. Climate change impacts on the biophysics and economics of world fisheries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sumaila, U. Rashid; Cheung, William W. L.; Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Pauly, Daniel; Herrick, Samuel

    2011-12-01

    Global marine fisheries are underperforming economically because of overfishing, pollution and habitat degradation. Added to these threats is the looming challenge of climate change. Observations, experiments and simulation models show that climate change would result in changes in primary productivity, shifts in distribution and changes in the potential yield of exploited marine species, resulting in impacts on the economics of fisheries worldwide. Despite the gaps in understanding climate change effects on fisheries, there is sufficient scientific information that highlights the need to implement climate change mitigation and adaptation policies to minimize impacts on fisheries.

  8. Developing Conceptual Models for Assessing Climate Change Impacts to Contaminant Availability in Terrestrial Ecosystems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-01

    Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. ERDC/EL TN-15-1 March 2015 Developing Conceptual Models for Assessing Climate Change ...aspects of climate change can impact contaminant availability and threatened, endangered, and at-risk species (TER-S) of terrestrial habitats on military...installations. The goal was to develop tools that aid installation managers with better managing climate change impacts. The CMs can be used as a

  9. Potential climate change impacts on temperate forest ecosystem processes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peters, Emily B.; Wythers, Kirk R.; Zhang, Shuxia; Bradford, John B.; Reich, Peter B.

    2013-01-01

    Large changes in atmospheric CO2, temperature and precipitation are predicted by 2100, yet the long-term consequences for carbon, water, and nitrogen cycling in forests are poorly understood. We applied the PnET-CN ecosystem model to compare the long-term effects of changing climate and atmospheric CO2 on productivity, evapotranspiration, runoff, and net nitrogen mineralization in current Great Lakes forest types. We used two statistically downscaled climate projections, PCM B1 (warmer and wetter) and GFDL A1FI (hotter and drier), to represent two potential future climate and atmospheric CO2 scenarios. To separate the effects of climate and CO2, we ran PnET-CN including and excluding the CO2 routine. Our results suggest that, with rising CO2 and without changes in forest type, average regional productivity could increase from 67% to 142%, changes in evapotranspiration could range from –3% to +6%, runoff could increase from 2% to 22%, and net N mineralization could increase 10% to 12%. Ecosystem responses varied geographically and by forest type. Increased productivity was almost entirely driven by CO2 fertilization effects, rather than by temperature or precipitation (model runs holding CO2 constant showed stable or declining productivity). The relative importance of edaphic and climatic spatial drivers of productivity varied over time, suggesting that productivity in Great Lakes forests may switch from being temperature to water limited by the end of the century.

  10. Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observeddata. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results variedby region . Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1 .6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.628.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. In this study we evaluate changes in ozone related mortality due to changes in biogenic f

  11. The impacts of climate change on calcareous grasslands. I. Rationale and climate engineering

    SciTech Connect

    Kielty, J.P.; Corker, D.; Grime, J.P.

    1995-06-01

    Identical manipulative field experiments have been established at two sites in the U.K. to assess the impacts of artificially manipulated climate on the dynamics of calcareous grassland ecosystems. These two sites have contrasting local climate, flora and fauna (the northern site, near Buxton, Derbyshire, is colder and wetter than the southern site, at Wytham, Oxfordshire). In response to inter alia forecasts of climate change (from general circulation models), field manipulations of winter temperature and summer rainfall have been imposed to test how two climate scenarios will affect the structure and function of plant and animal communities. Using robust, non-intrusive techniques developed at UCPE, factorial combinations of elevated winter temperature with either reduced or enhanced summer rainfall were applied to 3m x 3m plots, with five replicates per treatment. Heating cables were attached at the soil/turf interface and the temperature in experimental plots was maintained at 3{degrees}C above ambient by a thermocouple and data acquisition system. Summer rainfall was supplemented with deionized water between June and September. During these months, a 20% enhancement of the long term mean rainfall was achieved. Automatic rainshelters allowed a complete drought to be imposed during July and August. The climate engineering described has proven to be very efficient and is now entering the second year of what will be a long-term study.

  12. Climate Change and Expected Impacts on the Global Water Cycle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rind, David; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    How the elements of the global hydrologic cycle may respond to climate change is reviewed, first from a discussion of the physical sensitivity of these elements to changes in temperature, and then from a comparison of observations of hydrologic changes over the past 100 million years. Observations of current changes in the hydrologic cycle are then compared with projected future changes given the prospect of global warming. It is shown that some of the projections come close to matching the estimated hydrologic changes that occurred long ago when the earth was very warm.

  13. Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Part 1. Scenarios and Context

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; Thomson, Allison M.; Rosenberg, Norman J.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.; Brown, Robert A.; Wigley, T. M.

    2005-04-01

    As CO2 and other greenhouse gasses accumulate in the atmosphere and contribute to rising global temperatures, it is important to examine how a changing climate may affect natural and managed ecosystems. In this series of papers, we study the impacts of climate change on agriculture, water resources and natural ecosystems in the conterminous United States using a suite of climate change projections from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three biophysical models. In this paper we present the climate change scenarios used to drive the impact analyses. The assumed levels of global-mean climate changes are discussed and placed in the context of recent work on climate-change scenarios for the next 100 years. The spatial variation of these changes given by the GCM results used for the impact analyses are also discussed.

  14. Simulation of Climate Change Impacts on Wheat-Fallow Cropping Systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural system simulation models are predictive tools for assessing climate change impacts on crop production. In this study, RZWQM2 that contains the DSSAT 4.0-CERES model was evaluated for simulating climate change impacts on wheat growth. The model was calibrated and validated using data fro...

  15. Impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa: A review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kusangaya, Samuel; Warburton, Michele L.; Archer van Garderen, Emma; Jewitt, Graham P. W.

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that there is consensus that the increase of atmospheric greenhouse gases will result in climate change which will cause the sea level to rise, increased frequency of extreme climatic events including intense storms, heavy rainfall events and droughts. This will increase the frequency of climate-related hazards, causing loss of life, social disruption and economic hardships. There is less consensus on the magnitude of change of climatic variables, but several studies have shown that climate change will impact on the availability and demand for water resources. In southern Africa, climate change is likely to affect nearly every aspect of human well-being, from agricultural productivity and energy use to flood control, municipal and industrial water supply to wildlife management, since the region is characterised by highly spatial and temporally variable rainfall and, in some cases, scarce water resources. Vulnerability is exacerbated by the region's low adaptive capacity, widespread poverty and low technology uptake. This paper reviews the potential impacts of climate change on water resources in southern Africa. The outcomes of this review include highlighting studies on detected climate changes particularly focusing on temperature and rainfall. Additionally, the impacts of climate change are highlighted, and respective studies on hydrological responses to climate change are examined. The review also discusses the challenges in climate change impact analysis, which inevitably represents existing research and knowledge gaps. Finally the paper concludes by outlining possible research areas in the realm of climate change impacts on water resources, particularly knowledge gaps in uncertainty analysis for both climate change and hydrological modelling.

  16. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in the Lake Victoria Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tidwell, A. C.; Georgakakos, A. P.; Yao, H.

    2007-12-01

    The success of water resources planning and management decisions is predicated on decision maker access to reliable and conclusive information, including climate forecasts. This is becoming increasingly critical as climate changes are predicted to take place over the same time horizons used in water and energy resources planning. The results of climate scenario analysis for Lake Victoria in East Africa are presented and used in a detailed climate change impact assessment for water resources. This region is shown to be particularly vulnerable to climate changes through projected impacts on net basin supplies, lake levels, lake releases, and energy generation.

  17. Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

    PubMed Central

    Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C.

    2017-01-01

    Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate. PMID:28281687

  18. Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts.

    PubMed

    Rutherford, William A; Painter, Thomas H; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C

    2017-03-10

    Drylands represent the planet's largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness-changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

  19. Albedo feedbacks to future climate via climate change impacts on dryland biocrusts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutherford, William A.; Painter, Thomas H.; Ferrenberg, Scott; Belnap, Jayne; Okin, Gregory S.; Flagg, Cody; Reed, Sasha C.

    2017-03-01

    Drylands represent the planet’s largest terrestrial biome and evidence suggests these landscapes have large potential for creating feedbacks to future climate. Recent studies also indicate that dryland ecosystems are responding markedly to climate change. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) ‒ soil surface communities of lichens, mosses, and/or cyanobacteria ‒ comprise up to 70% of dryland cover and help govern fundamental ecosystem functions, including soil stabilization and carbon uptake. Drylands are expected to experience significant changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and such alterations may impact biocrust communities by promoting rapid mortality of foundational species. In turn, biocrust community shifts affect land surface cover and roughness—changes that can dramatically alter albedo. We tested this hypothesis in a full-factorial warming (+4 °C above ambient) and altered precipitation (increased frequency of 1.2 mm monsoon-type watering events) experiment on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We quantified changes in shortwave albedo via multi-angle, solar-reflectance measurements. Warming and watering treatments each led to large increases in albedo (>30%). This increase was driven by biophysical factors related to treatment effects on cyanobacteria cover and soil surface roughness following treatment-induced moss and lichen mortality. A rise in dryland surface albedo may represent a previously unidentified feedback to future climate.

  20. Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability, and mitigation.

    PubMed

    Haines, A; Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D; Corvalan, C

    2006-06-24

    It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways--eg, as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold-related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases, and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries might also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public-health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing the use of a number of renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near term by reducing exposure to air pollution.

  1. Climate change and human health: impacts, vulnerability and public health.

    PubMed

    Haines, A; Kovats, R S; Campbell-Lendrum, D; Corvalan, C

    2006-07-01

    It is now widely accepted that climate change is occurring as a result of the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere arising from the combustion of fossil fuels. Climate change may affect health through a range of pathways, for example as a result of increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, reduction in cold related deaths, increased floods and droughts, changes in the distribution of vector-borne diseases and effects on the risk of disasters and malnutrition. The overall balance of effects on health is likely to be negative and populations in low-income countries are likely to be particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects. The experience of the 2003 heat wave in Europe shows that high-income countries may also be adversely affected. Adaptation to climate change requires public health strategies and improved surveillance. Mitigation of climate change by reducing the use of fossil fuels and increasing a number of uses of the renewable energy technologies should improve health in the near-term by reducing exposure to air pollution.

  2. Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Voisin, Nathalie; Cui, Huijuan

    2016-08-01

    Hydropower is an important renewable energy source in China, but it is sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter hydrological conditions (e.g., river flow and reservoir storage). Future changes and associated uncertainties in China's gross hydropower potential (GHP) and developed hydropower potential (DHP) are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs), including a large-scale reservoir regulation model, forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results show that the estimation of the present GHP of China is comparable to other studies; overall, the annual GHP is projected to change by -1.7 to 2 % in the near future (2020-2050) and increase by 3 to 6 % in the late 21st century (2070-2099). The annual DHP is projected to change by -2.2 to -5.4 % (0.7-1.7 % of the total installed hydropower capacity (IHC)) and -1.3 to -4 % (0.4-1.3 % of total IHC) for 2020-2050 and 2070-2099, respectively. Regional variations emerge: GHP will increase in northern China but decrease in southern China - mostly in south central China and eastern China - where numerous reservoirs and large IHCs currently are located. The area with the highest GHP in southwest China will have more GHP, while DHP will reduce in the regions with high IHC (e.g., Sichuan and Hubei) in the future. The largest decrease in DHP (in %) will occur in autumn or winter, when streamflow is relatively low and water use is competitive. Large ranges in hydropower estimates across GHMs and GCMs highlight the necessity of using multimodel assessments under climate change conditions. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in planning for hydropower development and operations in China, to be further combined with a socioeconomic analysis for strategic expansion.

  3. Climate Change Impact on Evapotranspiration, Heat Stress and Chill Requirements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, R. L.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.

    2013-12-01

    Carbon dioxide concentration scenarios project an increase in CO2 from 372 ppm to between 500 and 950 ppm by the year 2100, and the potential effect on temperature, humidity, and plant responses to environmental factors are complex and concerning. For 2100, mean daily temperature increase projections range from 1.2oC to 6.8oC depending on greenhouse gas emissions. On the bad side, higher temperatures are often associated with increases in evapotranspiration (ET), heat stress, and pest infestations. On the good side, increased temperature is commonly related to less frost damage, faster growth, and higher production in some cases. One misconception is that global warming will increase evapotranspiration and, hence, agricultural water demand. As the oceans and other water bodies warm, evaporation and humidity are likely to increase globally, but higher humidity tends to reduce plant transpiration and hence ET. Higher CO2 concentrations also tend to reduce ET, and, in the end, the increase in ET due to higher temperature is likely to be offset by a decrease in ET due to higher humidity and CO2. With a decrease in daytime evapotranspiration, the canopy temperature is likely to rise relative to the air temperature, and this implies that heat stress could be worse than predicted by increased air temperature. Daily minimum temperatures are generally increasing about twice as fast as maximum temperatures presumably because of the increasing dew point temperatures as more water vapor is added to the atmosphere. This could present a serious problem to meet the chill requirement for fruit and nut crops. Growing seasons, i.e., from the last spring to the first fall frost, are likely to increase, but the crop growth period is likely to shorten due to higher temperature. Thus, spring frost damage is unlikely to change but there should be fewer damaging fall frost events. In this paper, we will present some ideas on the possible impact of climate change on evapotranspiration and

  4. Climate-change impact potentials as an alternative to global warming potentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirschbaum, Miko U. F.

    2014-03-01

    For policy applications, such as for the Kyoto Protocol, the climate-change contributions of different greenhouse gases are usually quantified through their global warming potentials. They are calculated based on the cumulative radiative forcing resulting from a pulse emission of a gas over a specified time period. However, these calculations are not explicitly linked to an assessment of ultimate climate-change impacts. A new metric, the climate-change impact potential (CCIP), is presented here that is based on explicitly defining the climate-change perturbations that lead to three different kinds of climate-change impacts. These kinds of impacts are: (1) those related directly to temperature increases; (2) those related to the rate of warming; and (3) those related to cumulative warming. From those definitions, a quantitative assessment of the importance of pulse emissions of each gas is developed, with each kind of impact assigned equal weight for an overall impact assessment. Total impacts are calculated under the RCP6 concentration pathway as a base case. The relevant climate-change impact potentials are then calculated as the marginal increase of those impacts over 100 years through the emission of an additional unit of each gas in 2010. These calculations are demonstrated for CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. Compared with global warming potentials, climate-change impact potentials would increase the importance of pulse emissions of long-lived nitrous oxide and reduce the importance of short-lived methane.

  5. Climate-change impacts on sandy-beach biota: crossing a line in the sand.

    PubMed

    Schoeman, David S; Schlacher, Thomas A; Defeo, Omar

    2014-08-01

    Sandy ocean beaches are iconic assets that provide irreplaceable ecosystem services to society. Despite their great socioeconomic importance, beaches as ecosystems are severely under-represented in the literature on climate-change ecology. Here, we redress this imbalance by examining whether beach biota have been observed to respond to recent climate change in ways that are consistent with expectations under climate change. We base our assessments on evidence coming from case studies on beach invertebrates in South America and on sea turtles globally. Surprisingly, we find that observational evidence for climate-change responses in beach biota is more convincing for invertebrates than for highly charismatic turtles. This asymmetry is paradoxical given the better theoretical understanding of the mechanisms by which turtles are likely to respond to changes in climate. Regardless of this disparity, knowledge of the unique attributes of beach systems can complement our detection of climate-change impacts on sandy-shore invertebrates to add rigor to studies of climate-change ecology for sandy beaches. To this end, we combine theory from beach ecology and climate-change ecology to put forward a suite of predictive hypotheses regarding climate impacts on beaches and to suggest ways that these can be tested. Addressing these hypotheses could significantly advance both beach and climate-change ecology, thereby progressing understanding of how future climate change will impact coastal ecosystems more generally.

  6. A climate robust integrated modelling framework for regional impact assessment of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janssen, Gijs; Bakker, Alexander; van Ek, Remco; Groot, Annemarie; Kroes, Joop; Kuiper, Marijn; Schipper, Peter; van Walsum, Paul; Wamelink, Wieger; Mol, Janet

    2013-04-01

    Decision making towards climate proofing the water management of regional catchments can benefit greatly from the availability of a climate robust integrated modelling framework, capable of a consistent assessment of climate change impacts on the various interests present in the catchments. In the Netherlands, much effort has been devoted to developing state-of-the-art regional dynamic groundwater models with a very high spatial resolution (25x25 m2). Still, these models are not completely satisfactory to decision makers because the modelling concepts do not take into account feedbacks between meteorology, vegetation/crop growth, and hydrology. This introduces uncertainties in forecasting the effects of climate change on groundwater, surface water, agricultural yields, and development of groundwater dependent terrestrial ecosystems. These uncertainties add to the uncertainties about the predictions on climate change itself. In order to create an integrated, climate robust modelling framework, we coupled existing model codes on hydrology, agriculture and nature that are currently in use at the different research institutes in the Netherlands. The modelling framework consists of the model codes MODFLOW (groundwater flow), MetaSWAP (vadose zone), WOFOST (crop growth), SMART2-SUMO2 (soil-vegetation) and NTM3 (nature valuation). MODFLOW, MetaSWAP and WOFOST are coupled online (i.e. exchange information on time step basis). Thus, changes in meteorology and CO2-concentrations affect crop growth and feedbacks between crop growth, vadose zone water movement and groundwater recharge are accounted for. The model chain WOFOST-MetaSWAP-MODFLOW generates hydrological input for the ecological prediction model combination SMART2-SUMO2-NTM3. The modelling framework was used to support the regional water management decision making process in the 267 km2 Baakse Beek-Veengoot catchment in the east of the Netherlands. Computations were performed for regionalized 30-year climate change

  7. Methodologies for simulating impacts of climate change on crop production

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Ecophysiological models of crop growth have seen wide use in IPCC and related assessments. However, the diversity of modeling approaches constrains cross-study syntheses and increases potential for bias. We reviewed 139 peer-reviewed papers dealing with climate change and agriculture, considering si...

  8. Climate change and sugarcane production: potential impact and mitigation strategies

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) is an important crop for sugar and bioenergy worldwide. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration has increased by about 30% since the mid-18th century. The increasing greenhouse gas emission and global warming during climate change clearly result in the increase ...

  9. Climate change impact on air quality in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmud, Abdullah Al

    California has persistent air quality problems that affect the health of millions of residents. Global climate change will affect long-term weather patterns in California with unknown consequences to air quality. This dissertation explores how climate change will influence intermediary weather patterns and how they will subsequently affect air quality in California. The statistical relationship between the daily 1-hr maximum measured ozone concentrations and the daily maximum upper air temperature (T850) was explored for California's two most heavily polluted air basins. The temperature-ozone correlation was combined with T850 values predicted by Princeton's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) model to predict how climate change will affect ozone concentrations. The results suggest that by the year 2050 California would experience an additional 22--30 days year-1 and 6--13 days year-1 with ozone concentrations ≥90 ppb under the IPCC A2 and B1 emissions scenarios (assuming emissions of criteria pollutants in California remained at 1990--2004 levels). Output from the NCAR/DOE Parallel Climate Model (PCM) generated under the "business as usual" global emissions scenario was downscaled to regional scales using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model followed by air quality simulations using the UCD/CIT airshed model. The air quality simulations were carried out for the entire state of California with a resolution of 8 km for the years 2000--06 (present climate) and 2047--53 (future climate). Averaging predictions from over 2000 simulation days suggest that annual average PM2.5 concentrations will decrease by ˜0.6--1.9 mug m-3 in coastal and central Los Angeles and increase by ˜0.9--1.3 mug m-3 at locations within the San Joaquin Valley (SJV) and the Sacramento Valley (SACV). A corresponding analysis of the annual variability showed that the 95% confidence interval spans zero (meaning no change due to climate). Similar analysis was carried out for

  10. Impacts of sea ice / SST changes for the observed climate change -GREENICE project-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogawa, Fumiaki; Gao, Yongqi; Keenlyside, Noel; Koenigk, Torben; Semenov, Vladimir; Suo, Lingling; Yang, Shuting; Wang, Tao

    2016-04-01

    Under the recent global warming, melting of arctic sea-ice in recent decades could have contributed to recent climate changes including its long-term trend and extreme weather events. While the climatic response to the sea-ice loss have been studied recently, it is still an open question to what extent the sea-ice change has influenced recent climate change. Other factors, such as for example, SST could also have had an influence. A main objective of GREENICE research project is to show what extent of the observed climate trend as well as observed weather extremes could be explained by the change and variability in sea ice and SST, respectively. In this project, we designed two atmospheric general circulation model experiments: In both experiments observed daily sea ice cover variations are prescribed, while for SST, one experiment uses observed daily variations and the other the observed climatology. The experiment is performed by several different state-of-the-art AGCMs. Our preliminary results show that the observed wintertime temperature trend near the surface is poorly reproduced in our hindcast experiments using observed SIC and SST. The impact of SIC variation seems to be confined near the surface, while SST variation seems a key for temperature trend above. It suggests a necessity to consider the atmospheric poleward energy transport associated with SST variation to understand the observed arctic amplification. Other aspects of SIC/SST impact on the observed circulation change such as NAO shall also be discussed.

  11. Planning for climate change: The need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases.

    PubMed

    Mellor, Jonathan E; Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-04-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies.

  12. Planning for climate change: the need for mechanistic systems-based approaches to study climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases

    PubMed Central

    Levy, Karen; Zimmerman, Julie; Elliott, Mark; Bartram, Jamie; Carlton, Elizabeth; Clasen, Thomas; Dillingham, Rebecca; Eisenberg, Joseph; Guerrant, Richard; Lantagne, Daniele; Mihelcic, James; Nelson, Kara

    2016-01-01

    Increased precipitation and temperature variability as well as extreme events related to climate change are predicted to affect the availability and quality of water globally. Already heavily burdened with diarrheal diseases due to poor access to water, sanitation and hygiene facilities, communities throughout the developing world lack the adaptive capacity to sufficiently respond to the additional adversity caused by climate change. Studies suggest that diarrhea rates are positively correlated with increased temperature, and show a complex relationship with precipitation. Although climate change will likely increase rates of diarrheal diseases on average, there is a poor mechanistic understanding of the underlying disease transmission processes and substantial uncertainty surrounding current estimates. This makes it difficult to recommend appropriate adaptation strategies. We review the relevant climate-related mechanisms behind transmission of diarrheal disease pathogens and argue that systems-based mechanistic approaches incorporating human, engineered and environmental components are urgently needed. We then review successful systems-based approaches used in other environmental health fields and detail one modeling framework to predict climate change impacts on diarrheal diseases and design adaptation strategies. PMID:26799810

  13. Climate change impact on wave energy in the Persian Gulf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamranzad, Bahareh; Etemad-Shahidi, Amir; Chegini, Vahid; Yeganeh-Bakhtiary, Abbas

    2015-06-01

    Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth's temperature, and consequently have changed the patterns of natural phenomena such as wind speed, wave height, etc. Renewable energy resources are ideal alternatives to reduce the negative effects of increasing greenhouse gases emission and climate change. However, these energy sources are also sensitive to changing climate. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave energy in the Persian Gulf is investigated. For this purpose, future wind data obtained from CGCM3.1 model were downscaled using a hybrid approach and modification factors were computed based on local wind data (ECMWF) and applied to control and future CGCM3.1 wind data. Downscaled wind data was used to generate the wave characteristics in the future based on A2, B1, and A1B scenarios, while ECMWF wind field was used to generate the wave characteristics in the control period. The results of these two 30-yearly wave modelings using SWAN model showed that the average wave power changes slightly in the future. Assessment of wave power spatial distribution showed that the reduction of the average wave power is more in the middle parts of the Persian Gulf. Investigation of wave power distribution in two coastal stations (Boushehr and Assalouyeh ports) indicated that the annual wave energy will decrease in both stations while the wave power distribution for different intervals of significant wave height and peak period will also change in Assalouyeh according to all scenarios.

  14. Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity.

    PubMed

    Bellard, Céline; Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Leadley, Paul; Thuiller, Wilfried; Courchamp, Franck

    2012-04-01

    Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on the future of biodiversity. In this review, we first examine the different possible effects of climate change that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing that species can respond to climate change challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non-exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space (e.g. range) and self (e.g. physiology). Then, we present the principal specificities and caveats of the most common approaches used to estimate future biodiversity at global and sub-continental scales and we synthesise their results. Finally, we highlight several challenges for future research both in theoretical and applied realms. Overall, our review shows that current estimates are very variable, depending on the method, taxonomic group, biodiversity loss metrics, spatial scales and time periods considered. Yet, the majority of models indicate alarming consequences for biodiversity, with the worst-case scenarios leading to extinction rates that would qualify as the sixth mass extinction in the history of the earth.

  15. Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

  16. Drought and climatic change impact on streamflow in small watersheds.

    PubMed

    Tigkas, Dimitris; Vangelis, Harris; Tsakiris, George

    2012-12-01

    The paper presents a comprehensive, thought simple, methodology, for forecasting the annual hydrological drought, based on meteorological drought indications available early during the hydrological year. The meteorological drought of 3, 6 and 9 months is estimated using the reconnaissance drought index (RDI), whereas the annual hydrological drought is represented by the streamflow drought index (SDI). Regression equations are derived between RDI and SDI, forecasting the level of hydrological drought for the entire year in real time. Further, using a wide range of scenarios representing possible climatic changes and drought events of varying severity, nomographs are devised for estimating the annual streamflow change. The Medbasin rainfall-runoff model is used to link meteorological data to streamflow. The later approach can be useful for developing preparedness plans to combat the consequences of drought and climate change. As a case study, the area of N. Peloponnese (Greece) was selected, incorporating several small river basins.

  17. Climate Change Impacts and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Effects on U.S. Hydropower Generation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Climate change will have potentially significant effects on hydropower generation due to changes in the magnitude and seasonality of river runoff and increases in reservoir evaporation. These physical impacts will in turn have economic consequences through both producer revenues ...

  18. Uncertainty of climate change impacts on soil erosion from cropland in central Oklahoma

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Impacts of climate change on soil erosion and the potential need for additional conservation actions are typically estimated by applying a hydrologic and soil erosion model under present and future climate conditions defined by an emission scenario. Projecting future climate conditions harbors sever...

  19. Climate change: a review of its health impact and perceived awareness by the young citizens.

    PubMed

    Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

    2014-04-16

    In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University's students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences.

  20. Climate Change: A Review of Its Health Impact and Percieved Awareness by the Young Citizens

    PubMed Central

    Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

    2014-01-01

    In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University’s students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. PMID:24999143

  1. Climate Change Impacts in the State of Delaware

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Snyder, C.

    2011-12-01

    The State of Delaware is currently completing its first statewide climate impacts and vulnerability assessment that will provide the foundation for a new statewide adaptation planning process. The assessment focuses on both the observed impacts and the projected impacts on five main sectors: public health and safety; infrastructure and water; industry, agriculture, and forestry; tourism and recreation; and wildlife, plants, and natural ecosystems. Examples of key impacts to the State include loss of wetlands from sea level rise and public health impacts from increased tropospheric ozone and heatwaves. The assessment is a result of collaboration across state agencies, universities, local governments, and non-governmental organizations. We discuss several challenges in translating national and regional research to locally-specific and locally-meaningful impacts necessary for the policy process, adaptation planning, and public outreach. We identify information and research gaps that continue to slow progress at the local and state level. There are lessons learned on how to best engage with policymakers and be relevant and useful for policy planning. Lastly, we give examples of successes in diverse collaborations, public communication of the results, and early policy actions resulting from the findings.

  2. Assessment of climate change impact on floodplain and hydrologic ecotones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moradkhani, Hamid; Baird, Ruben G.; Wherry, Susan A.

    2010-12-01

    SummaryCurrent modeling efforts continue to indicate that the effects of climate change will be both global and local in scale, and that ecohydrologic factors including vegetation pattern, altered precipitation events, reduced system yields due to streamflow changes, increased flooding and changes to current floodplain characteristics will be affected. Therefore, using technology such as light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data, using future general circulation model (GCM) data, and conducting floodplain analyses to predict the changes to ecohydrologic factors are critical for cataloging existing ecosystem resources and for understanding the effects that different climate change scenarios may have on these resources at the basin scale. This study considers the effects of three different GCM climate change emissions scenarios (high from the IPSL GCM's A2 scenario, middle from the ECHAM5 GCM's A2 scenario and low from the GISS GCM's B1 scenario) using daily downscaled precipitation and temperature data over the Lower Tualatin basin in the Pacific Northwest US. The Tualatin River basin is a dynamic watershed that supports urban and agricultural uses and is also 50% forested. Its economic drivers include agricultural and forest products, as well as other consumer products including high-tech software and hardware industries. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) software was used as a distributed hydrologic model to predict the daily flows in the basin. It is predicted the 50-year recurrence interval (RI) flow will decrease significantly for the low and middle emissions scenarios (to between approximately 18,000-19,000 cfs compared to the observed 50-year RI of near 26,000 cfs) and will increase significantly under the high emissions scenario to nearly 33,000 cfs. Floodplain extents for the various climate scenarios and timeframes were delineated using the HEC-RAS model. A geo-processing procedure was employed to delineate hydrologic ecotones to evaluate the

  3. Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Xingcai; Tang, Qiuhong; Voisin, Nathalie; Cui, Huijuan

    2016-01-01

    Hydropower is an important renewable energy source in China, but it is sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter hydrological conditions (e.g., river flow and reservoir storage). Future changes and associated uncertainties in China's gross hydropower potential (GHP) and developed hydropower potential (DHP) are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs), including a large-scale reservoir regulation model, forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results show that the estimation of the present GHP of China is comparable to other studies; overall, the annual GHP is projected to change by −1.7 to 2 % in the near future (2020–2050) and increase by 3 to 6 % in the late 21st century (2070–2099). The annual DHP is projected to change by −2.2 to −5.4 % (0.7–1.7 % of the total installed hydropower capacity (IHC)) and −1.3 to −4 % (0.4–1.3 % of total IHC) for 2020–2050 and 2070–2099, respectively. Regional variations emerge: GHP will increase in northern China but decrease in southern China – mostly in south central China and eastern China – where numerous reservoirs and large IHCs currently are located. The area with the highest GHP in southwest China will have more GHP, while DHP will reduce in the regions with high IHC (e.g., Sichuan and Hubei) in the future. The largest decrease in DHP (in %) will occur in autumn or winter, when streamflow is relatively low and water use is competitive. Large ranges in hydropower estimates across GHMs and GCMs highlight the necessity of using multimodel assessments under climate change conditions. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in planning for hydropower development and operations in China, to be further combined with a socioeconomic analysis for strategic expansion.

  4. Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandramowli, Shankar N.

    Climate change poses a serious threat to human welfare. There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that human actions are the primary cause of climate change. The principal climate forcing factor is the increasing accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) due to combustion of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation. Generation of electricity account for nearly one-third of the greenhouse (GHG) emissions globally (on a CO2-equivalent basis). Any kind of economy-wide mitigation or adaptation effort to climate change must have a prominent focus on the electric power sector. I have developed a capacity expansion model for the power sector called LP-CEM (Linear Programming based Capacity Expansion Model). LP-CEM incorporates both the long-term climate change effects and the state/regional-level macroeconomic trends. This modeling framework is demonstrated for the electric power system in the Northeast region of United States. Some of the methodological advances introduced in this research are: the use of high-resolution temperature projections in a power sector capacity expansion model; the incorporation of changes in sectoral composition of electricity demand over time; the incorporation of the effects of climate change and variability on both the demand and supply-side of power sector using parameters estimated in the literature; and an inter-model coupling link with a macroeconomic model to account for price elasticity of demand and other effects on the broader macro-economy. LP-CEM-type models can be of use to state/regional level policymakers to plan for future mitigation and adaptation measures for the electric power sector. From the simulation runs, it is shown that scenarios with climate change effects and with high economic growth rates have resulted in higher capacity addition, optimal supply costs, wholesale/retail prices and total ratepayers' costs. LP-CEM is also adapted to model the implications of the proposed Clean Power Plan

  5. Impact of climate change on larch budmoth cyclic outbreaks.

    PubMed

    Iyengar, Sudharsana V; Balakrishnan, Janaki; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-06-13

    Periodic outbreaks of the larch budmoth Zeiraphera diniana population (and the massive forest defoliation they engender) have been recorded in the Alps over the centuries and are known for their remarkable regularity. But these have been conspicuously absent since 1981. On the other hand, budmoth outbreaks have been historically unknown in the larches of the Carpathian Tatra mountains. To resolve this puzzle, we propose here a model which includes the influence of climate and explains both the 8-9 year periodicity in the budmoth cycle and the variations from this, as well as the absence of cycles. We successfully capture the observed trend of relative frequencies of outbreaks, reproducing the dominant periodicities seen. We contend that the apparent collapse of the cycle in 1981 is due to changing climatic conditions following a tipping point and propose the recurrence of the cycle with a changed periodicity of 40 years - the next outbreak could occur in 2021. Our model also predicts longer cycles.

  6. Impact of climate change on larch budmoth cyclic outbreaks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyengar, Sudharsana V.; Balakrishnan, Janaki; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-06-01

    Periodic outbreaks of the larch budmoth Zeiraphera diniana population (and the massive forest defoliation they engender) have been recorded in the Alps over the centuries and are known for their remarkable regularity. But these have been conspicuously absent since 1981. On the other hand, budmoth outbreaks have been historically unknown in the larches of the Carpathian Tatra mountains. To resolve this puzzle, we propose here a model which includes the influence of climate and explains both the 8–9 year periodicity in the budmoth cycle and the variations from this, as well as the absence of cycles. We successfully capture the observed trend of relative frequencies of outbreaks, reproducing the dominant periodicities seen. We contend that the apparent collapse of the cycle in 1981 is due to changing climatic conditions following a tipping point and propose the recurrence of the cycle with a changed periodicity of 40 years – the next outbreak could occur in 2021. Our model also predicts longer cycles.

  7. Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security Worldwide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia E.; Antle, John; Elliott, Joshua

    2015-01-01

    The combination of a warming Earth and an increasing population will likely strain the world's food systems in the coming decades. Experts involved with the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) focus on quantifying the changes through time. AgMIP, a program begun in 2010, involves about 800 climate scientists, economists, nutritionists, information technology specialists, and crop and livestock experts. In mid-September 2015, the Aspen Global Change Institute convened an AgMIP workshop to draft plans and protocols for assessing global- and regional-scale modeling of crops, livestock, economics, and nutrition across major agricultural regions worldwide. The goal of this Coordinated Global and Regional Integrated Assessments (CGRA) project is to characterize climate effects on large- and small-scale farming systems.

  8. Climate change impacts on potential recruitment in an ecosystem engineer

    PubMed Central

    Morgan, Emer; O' Riordan, Ruth M; Culloty, Sarah C

    2013-01-01

    Climate variability and the rapid warming of seas undoubtedly have huge ramifications for biological processes such as reproduction. As such, gametogenesis and spawning were investigated at two sites over 200 km apart on the south coast of Ireland in an ecosystem engineer, the common cockle, Cerastoderma edule. Both sites are classed as Special Areas of Conservation (SACs), but are of different water quality. Cerastoderma edule plays a significant biological role by recycling nutrients and affecting sediment structure, with impacts upon assemblage biomass and functional diversity. It plays a key role in food webs, being a common foodstuff for a number of marine birds including the oystercatcher. Both before and during the study (early 2010–mid 2011), Ireland experienced its two coldest winters for 50 years. As the research demonstrated only slight variation in the spawning period between sites, despite site differences in water and environmental quality, temperature and variable climatic conditions were the dominant factor controlling gametogenesis. The most significant finding was that the spawning period in the cockle extended over a greater number of months compared with previous studies and that gametogenesis commenced over winter rather than in spring. Extremely cold winters may impact on the cockle by accelerating and extending the onset and development of gametogenesis. Whether this impact is positive or negative would depend on the associated events occurring on which the cockle depends, that is, presence of primary producers and spring blooms, which would facilitate conversion of this extended gametogenesis into successful recruitment. PMID:23532482

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Water and Energy for Army Installations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-01

    charac- teristics considered suitable for solar, wind, biomass, geothermal and ground-sourced heat pumps (GSHPs) while also accounting for Mission...Government Accountability Office GCC Global Climate Change GIS Geographic Information System GMSL Global Mean Sea Level GSHP Ground Source Heat Pump HD...redundancy to the electrical power systems and/or heat generating systems . Supply vs. Demand on the Installation is calculated as (A1 ÷ A0) and credit

  10. Adapting to Health Impacts of Climate Change in the Department of Defense.

    PubMed

    Chrétien, Jean-Paul

    2016-01-01

    The Department of Defense (DoD) recognizes climate change as a threat to its mission and recently issued policy to implement climate change adaptation measures. However, the DoD has not conducted a comprehensive assessment of health-related climate change effects. To catalyze the needed assessment--a first step toward a comprehensive DoD climate change adaptation plan for health--this article discusses the DoD relevance of 3 selected climate change impacts: heat injuries, vector-borne diseases, and extreme weather that could lead to natural disasters. The author uses these examples to propose a comprehensive approach to planning for health-related climate change impacts in the DoD.

  11. The impact of climate change on mental health (but will mental health be discussed at Copenhagen?).

    PubMed

    Page, L A; Howard, L M

    2010-02-01

    Climate change will shortly be assuming centre stage when Copenhagen hosts the United Nations Climate Change Conference in early December 2009. In Copenhagen, delegates will discuss the international response to climate change (i.e. the ongoing increase in the Earth's average surface temperature) and the meeting is widely viewed as the most important of its kind ever held (http://en.cop15.dk/). International agreement will be sought on a treaty to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. At the time of writing it is not known whether agreement will be reached on the main issues of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and financing the impacts of climate change, and it appears that the impact of climate change on mental health is unlikely to be on the agenda. We discuss here how climate change could have consequences for global mental health and consider the implications for future research and policy.

  12. The Impact of Changing Climate on Ammonia Emissions from Agriculture and the Associated Climate Forcings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ward, D. S.; Riddick, S. N.; Hess, P. G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of ammonia (NH3) on a global scale with major contributions from the application of synthetic fertilizer and manure from livestock. While strict controls are placed on the emissions of many industrial pollutants, NH3 concentrations are expected to increase this century. In addition to future expansion of agricultural activities that could lead to greater NH3 emissions, NH3 emissions are affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we use a newly developed agricultural N pathways model running in a global terrestrial model (Community Land Model v4.0) to estimate future NH3 emissions from manure and synthetic fertilizer application, and the impact of changing climate on these emissions and other N pathways (runoff, denitrification, etc.). We include future increases in the application of manure and synthetic fertilizer that are consistent with a middle-of-the-road projection of population growth and per capita caloric intake. Combined with atmospheric forcing that follows RCP8.5, NH3 emissions increase by about 50% and 90% between years 2010 and 2100 from synthetic fertilizer and manure, respectively. Roughly 25% of this increase can be attributed to the changing climate, mainly increased global temperatures over the 21st century. We show associated changes in ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate aerosol concentrations and radiative forcings, the results of a set of additional simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model v5.0 and an offline radiative transfer scheme. This work suggests that projections of global NH3 concentrations need to take changes in climate into account.

  13. Climate change impact on growing degree day accumulation values

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bekere, Liga; Sile, Tija; Bethers, Uldis; Sennikovs, Juris

    2015-04-01

    A well-known and often used method to assess and forecast plant growth cycle is the growing degree day (GDD) method with different formulas used for accumulation calculations. With this method the only factor that affects plant development is temperature. So with climate change and therefore also change in temperature the typical times of plant blooming or harvest can be expected to change. The goal of this study is to assess this change in the Northern Europe region. As an example strawberry bloom and harvest times are used. As the first part of this study it was required to define the current GDD amounts required for strawberry bloom and harvest. It was done using temperature data from the Danish Meteorological Institute's (DMI) NWP model HIRLAM for the years 2010-2012 and general strawberry growth observations in Latvia. This way we acquired an example amount of GDD required for strawberry blooming and harvest. To assess change in the plant growth cycle we used regional climate models (RCM) - Euro-CORDEX. RCM temperature data for both past and future periods was analyzed and bias correction was carried out. Then the GDD calculation methodology was applied on corrected temperature data and results showing change in strawberry growth cycle - bloom and harvest times - in Northern Europe were visualized.

  14. Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation.

    PubMed

    McKenzie, R L; Aucamp, P J; Bais, A F; Björn, L O; Ilyas, M; Madronich, S

    2011-02-01

    The Montreal Protocol is working, but it will take several decades for ozone to return to 1980 levels. The atmospheric concentrations of ozone depleting substances are decreasing, and ozone column amounts are no longer decreasing. Mid-latitude ozone is expected to return to 1980 levels before mid-century, slightly earlier than predicted previously. However, the recovery rate will be slower at high latitudes. Springtime ozone depletion is expected to continue to occur at polar latitudes, especially in Antarctica, in the next few decades. Because of the success of the Protocol, increases in UV-B radiation have been small outside regions affected by the Antarctic ozone hole, and have been difficult to detect. There is a large variability in UV-B radiation due to factors other than ozone, such as clouds and aerosols. There are few long-term measurements available to confirm the increases that would have occurred as a result of ozone depletion. At mid-latitudes UV-B irradiances are currently only slightly greater than in 1980 (increases less than ~5%), but increases have been substantial at high and polar latitudes where ozone depletion has been larger. Without the Montreal Protocol, peak values of sunburning UV radiation could have been tripled by 2065 at mid-northern latitudes. This would have had serious consequences for the environment and for human health. There are strong interactions between ozone depletion and changes in climate induced by increasing greenhouse gases (GHGs). Ozone depletion affects climate, and climate change affects ozone. The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol has had a marked effect on climate change. The calculated reduction in radiative forcing due to the phase-out of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) far exceeds that from the measures taken under the Kyoto protocol for the reduction of GHGs. Thus the phase-out of CFCs is currently tending to counteract the increases in surface temperature due to increased GHGs. The amount of

  15. Impact of climate change in Switzerland on socioeconomic snow indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmucki, Edgar; Marty, Christoph; Fierz, Charles; Weingartner, Rolf; Lehning, Michael

    2017-02-01

    Snow is a key element for many socioeconomic activities in mountainous regions. Due to the sensitivity of the snow cover to variations of temperature and precipitation, major changes caused by climate change are expected to happen. We analyze the evolution of some key snow indices under future climatic conditions. Ten downscaled and postprocessed climate scenarios from the ENSEMBLES database have been used to feed the physics-based snow model SNOWPACK. The projected snow cover has been calculated for 11 stations representing the diverse climates found in Switzerland. For the first time, such a setup is used to reveal changes in frequently applied snow indices and their implications on various socioeconomic sectors. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, a continuous snow cover is likely only guaranteed at high elevations above 2000 m a.s.l., whereas at mid elevations (1000-1700 m a.s.l.), roughly 50 % of all winters might be characterized by an ephemeral snow cover. Low elevations (below 500 m a.s.l.) are projected to experience only 2 days with snowfall per year and show the strongest relative reductions in mean winter snow depth of around 90 %. The range of the mean relative reductions of the snow indices is dominated by uncertainties from different GCM-RCM projections and amounts to approximately 30 %. Despite these uncertainties, all snow indices show a clear decrease in all scenario periods and the relative reductions increase toward lower elevations. These strong reductions can serve as a basis for policy makers in the fields of tourism, ecology, and hydropower.

  16. Predicting climate change impacts on polar bear litter size.

    PubMed

    Molnár, Péter K; Derocher, Andrew E; Klanjscek, Tin; Lewis, Mark A

    2011-02-08

    Predicting the ecological impacts of climate warming is critical for species conservation. Incorporating future warming into population models, however, is challenging because reproduction and survival cannot be measured for yet unobserved environmental conditions. In this study, we use mechanistic energy budget models and data obtainable under current conditions to predict polar bear litter size under future conditions. In western Hudson Bay, we predict climate warming-induced litter size declines that jeopardize population viability: ∼28% of pregnant females failed to reproduce for energetic reasons during the early 1990s, but 40-73% could fail if spring sea ice break-up occurs 1 month earlier than during the 1990s, and 55-100% if break-up occurs 2 months earlier. Simultaneously, mean litter size would decrease by 22-67% and 44-100%, respectively. The expected timeline for these declines varies with climate-model-specific sea ice predictions. Similar litter size declines may occur in over one-third of the global polar bear population.

  17. Impacts of Participatory Modeling on Climate Change-related Water Management Impacts in Sonora, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halvorsen, K. E.; Kossak, D. J.; Mayer, A. S.; Vivoni, E. R.; Robles-Morua, A.; Gamez Molina, V.; Dana, K.; Mirchi, A.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change-related impacts on water resources are expected to be particularly severe in the arid developing world. As a result, we conducted a series of participatory modeling workshops on hydrologic and water resources systems modeling in the face of climate change in Sonora, Mexico. Pre-surveys were administered to participants on Day 1 of a series of four workshops spaced out over three months in 2013. Post-surveys repeated many pre-survey questions and included questions assessing the quality of the workshops and models. We report on significant changes in participant perceptions of water resource models and problems and their assessment of the workshops. These findings will be of great value to future participatory modeling efforts, particularly within the developing world.

  18. The impacts of climate change on water resources and agriculture in China.

    PubMed

    Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Huang, Yao; Shen, Zehao; Peng, Shushi; Li, Junsheng; Zhou, Liping; Liu, Hongyan; Ma, Yuecun; Ding, Yihui; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Liu, Chunzhen; Tan, Kun; Yu, Yongqiang; Zhang, Tianyi; Fang, Jingyun

    2010-09-02

    China is the world's most populous country and a major emitter of greenhouse gases. Consequently, much research has focused on China's influence on climate change but somewhat less has been written about the impact of climate change on China. China experienced explosive economic growth in recent decades, but with only 7% of the world's arable land available to feed 22% of the world's population, China's economy may be vulnerable to climate change itself. We find, however, that notwithstanding the clear warming that has occurred in China in recent decades, current understanding does not allow a clear assessment of the impact of anthropogenic climate change on China's water resources and agriculture and therefore China's ability to feed its people. To reach a more definitive conclusion, future work must improve regional climate simulations-especially of precipitation-and develop a better understanding of the managed and unmanaged responses of crops to changes in climate, diseases, pests and atmospheric constituents.

  19. China: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030. A Commissioned Research Report

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-04-01

    2006): 1–21. lvi X. Chen, B. Hu, R. Yu et al. “Spatial and temporal variation of phenological growing season and climate change impacts in...The simulated climatic belts, climatic seasons, and Yellow River ice phenology in China are compared between the present climate during 1975–1984 and...simulating the dominant variations of the mean temperature over China, but not the spatial distributions. The annual precipitation over East Asia exceeds

  20. The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ranger, N.; Surminski, S.

    2012-04-01

    Session ERE5.1 Climate change impact on economical and industrial activities The impact of climate change on the BRICS economies: The case of insurance demand. Over the past decade, growth in the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) economies has been a key driver of global economic growth. Current forecasts suggest that these markets will continue to be areas of significant growth for a large number of industries. We consider how climate change may influence these trends in the period to 2030, a time horizon that is long in terms of strategic planning in industry, but relatively short for climate change analysis, where the impacts are predicted to be most significant beyond around 2050. Based on current evidence, we expect climate change to affect the BRICS economies in four main ways: 1. The impact of physical climatic changes on the productivity of climate-sensitive economic activity, the local environment, human health and wellbeing, and damages from extreme weather. 2. Changing patterns of investment in climate risk management and adaptation 3. Changing patterns of investments in areas affected by greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policy, 4. The impacts of the above globally, including on international trade, growth, investment, policy, migration and commodity prices, and their impacts on the BRICS. We review the evidence on the impacts of climate change in the BRICS and then apply this to one particular industry sector: non-life insurance. We propose five potential pathways through which climate change could influence insurance demand: economic growth; willingness to pay for insurance; public policy and regulation; the insurability of natural catastrophe risks; and new opportunities associated with adaptation and greenhouse gas mitigation. We conclude that, with the exception of public policy and regulation, the influence of climate change on insurance demand to 2030 is likely to be small when compared with the expected growth due to rising

  1. Impacts of climate change on the world's most exceptional ecoregions.

    PubMed

    Beaumont, Linda J; Pitman, Andrew; Perkins, Sarah; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2011-02-08

    The current rate of warming due to increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is very likely unprecedented over the last 10,000 y. Although the majority of countries have adopted the view that global warming must be limited to <2 °C, current GHG emission rates and nonagreement at Copenhagen in December 2009 increase the likelihood of this limit being exceeded by 2100. Extensive evidence has linked major changes in biological systems to 20th century warming. The "Global 200" comprises 238 ecoregions of exceptional biodiversity [Olson DM, Dinerstein E (2002) Ann Mo Bot Gard 89:199-224]. We assess the likelihood that, by 2070, these iconic ecoregions will regularly experience monthly climatic conditions that were extreme in 1961-1990. Using >600 realizations from climate model ensembles, we show that up to 86% of terrestrial and 83% of freshwater ecoregions will be exposed to average monthly temperature patterns >2 SDs (2σ) of the 1961-1990 baseline, including 82% of critically endangered ecoregions. The entire range of 89 ecoregions will experience extreme monthly temperatures with a local warming of <2 °C. Tropical and subtropical ecoregions, and mangroves, face extreme conditions earliest, some with <1 °C warming. In contrast, few ecoregions within Boreal Forests and Tundra biomes will experience such extremes this century. On average, precipitation regimes do not exceed 2σ of the baseline period, although considerable variability exists across the climate realizations. Further, the strength of the correlation between seasonal temperature and precipitation changes over numerous ecoregions. These results suggest many Global 200 ecoregions may be under substantial climatic stress by 2100.

  2. Beneath the surface of global change: Impacts of climate change on groundwater

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Timothy R.; Taniguchi, Makoto; Kooi, Henk; Gurdak, Jason J.; Allen, Diana M.; Hiscock, Kevin M.; Treidel, Holger; Aureli, Alice

    2011-08-01

    SummaryGlobal change encompasses changes in the characteristics of inter-related climate variables in space and time, and derived changes in terrestrial processes, including human activities that affect the environment. As such, projected global change includes groundwater systems. Here, groundwater is defined as all subsurface water including soil water, deeper vadose zone water, and unconfined and confined aquifer waters. Potential effects of climate change combined with land and water management on surface waters have been studied in some detail. Equivalent studies of groundwater systems have lagged behind these advances, but research and broader interest in projected climate effects on groundwater have been accelerating in recent years. In this paper, we provide an overview and synthesis of the key aspects of subsurface hydrology, including water quantity and quality, related to global change. Adaptation to global change must include prudent management of groundwater as a renewable, but slow-feedback resource in most cases. Groundwater storage is already over-tapped in many regions, yet available subsurface storage may be a key to meeting the combined demands of agriculture, industry, municipal and domestic water supply, and ecosystems during times of shortage. The future intensity and frequency of dry periods combined with warming trends need to be addressed in the context of groundwater resources, even though projections in space and time are fraught with uncertainty. Finally, potential impacts of groundwater on the global climate system are largely unknown. Research to improve our understanding of the joint behaviors of climate and groundwater is needed, and spin-off benefits on each discipline are likely.

  3. Climate Change Impact On Mekong Delta of Vietnam in recent years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Le, L. T. X., III

    2015-12-01

    In recent years, the climate change signal increase globally. Abnormal changes of weather tends increasingly detrimental to human life, such as natural disasters occur with increasing level of more severe. Climate change is one the biggest challenges, and is a potential threat to humans. The impact of climate change increases the number and extent of the disaster fierce exists as typhoons, floods, droughts ... Global warming and sea level rise increases the area of flooding, saline intrusion and erosion in the delta region may cause farmers to lose the opportunity to produce, source of life their only. Impact of climate change on people in the community, but poor farmers in the developing countries like our country, women are the most severe consequences In this section, we summarize changes in climate on the territory of Vietnam, especially in Mekong Delta evaluate causes and its relationship to changes in global climate and region. Along with the analysis of characteristics of climate changes over time and through space to help the evolution of the standard deviation (average deviation from the standard of the period from 1971 to 2015) may indicate that the characteristic gas scenes took place related to global climate change ... Vietnam's territory stretches over approximately 15 latitude, the terrain is very complex, located in the interior full of tropical Southeast Asia. Vietnam climate strongly influenced by the Asian monsoon, monsoon and Northern Hemisphere especially the ENSO activity in the equatorial region and the Pacific Ocean. Climate Vietnam abundant and diversified, with strong ties to the region and globally.

  4. Impacts of climate change on Oregon's coasts and estuaries: Chapter 6

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ruggiero,; Brown, Cheryl A.; Komar, Paul D.; Allan, Jonathan C.; Reusser, Deborah A.; Lee,

    2010-01-01

    In the following sections we attempt to summarize the most recent literature documenting historical changes as well as what may be expected to occur in response to climate change. Where little information is available we draw preliminary conclusions about the potential for specific impacts. When possible we highlight what research is needed to bridge knowledge gaps to improve our ability to identify climate change impacts more precisely, ultimately allowing for future projections.

  5. Climate change impact assessments on the water resources of India under extensive human interventions.

    PubMed

    Madhusoodhanan, C G; Sreeja, K G; Eldho, T I

    2016-10-01

    Climate change is a major concern in the twenty-first century and its assessments are associated with multiple uncertainties, exacerbated and confounded in the regions where human interventions are prevalent. The present study explores the challenges for climate change impact assessment on the water resources of India, one of the world's largest human-modified systems. The extensive human interventions in the Energy-Land-Water-Climate (ELWC) nexus significantly impact the water resources of the country. The direct human interventions in the landscape may surpass/amplify/mask the impacts of climate change and in the process also affect climate change itself. Uncertainties in climate and resource assessments add to the challenge. Formulating coherent resource and climate change policies in India would therefore require an integrated approach that would assess the multiple interlinkages in the ELWC nexus and distinguish the impacts of global climate change from that of regional human interventions. Concerted research efforts are also needed to incorporate the prominent linkages in the ELWC nexus in climate/earth system modelling.

  6. Climate and Land-Cover Change Impacts on Stream Flow in the Southwest U.S.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Vegetation change in arid and semi-arid climatic regions of the American West are a primary concern in sustaining key ecosystem services such as clean, reliable water sources for multiple uses. Land cover and climate change impacts on stream flow were investigated in a southeast ...

  7. Impact of climate change on water quality of an impaired New Mexico river

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is predicted to advance runoff timing in snowmelt basins and decrease available water, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. Researchers have suggested that the impacts of climate change will degrade water quality by reducing dilution. We use coupled snowmelt and water quality m...

  8. Adapting to and Coping with the Threat and Impacts of Climate Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reser, Joseph P.; Swim, Janet K.

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to…

  9. Modelling Impacts of Climate Change: Case Studies using the New Generation of Erosion Models

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Climate change is expected to impact upon a number of soil erosion drivers and processes, which should be taken into account when designing a modelling strategy. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) (Parry et al., 2007; Solomon et al., 2007) reviews a...

  10. Changing climate, changing forests: the impacts of climate change on forests of the northeastern United States and eastern Canada

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rustad, Lindsey; Campbell, John; Dukes, Jeffrey S.; Huntington, Thomas; Lambert, Kathy Fallon; Mohan, Jacqueline; Rodenhouse, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Decades of study on climatic change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems provide important insights for forest science, management, and policy. A synthesis of recent research from the northeastern United States and eastern Canada shows that the climate of the region has become warmer and wetter over the past 100 years and that there are more extreme precipitation events. Greater change is projected in the future. The amount of projected future change depends on the emissions scenarios used. Tree species composition of northeast forests has shifted slowly in response to climate for thousands of years. However, current human-accelerated climate change is much more rapid and it is unclear how forests will respond to large changes in suitable habitat. Projections indicate significant declines in suitable habitat for spruce-fir forests and expansion of suitable habitat for oak-dominated forests. Productivity gains that might result from extended growing seasons and carbon dioxide and nitrogen fertilization may be offset by productivity losses associated with the disruption of species assemblages and concurrent stresses associated with potential increases in atmospheric deposition of pollutants, forest fragmentation, and nuisance species. Investigations of links to water and nutrient cycling suggest that changes in evapotranspiration, soil respiration, and mineralization rates could result in significant alterations of key ecosystem processes. Climate change affects the distribution and abundance of many wildlife species in the region through changes in habitat, food availability, thermal tolerances, species interactions such as competition, and susceptibility to parasites and disease. Birds are the most studied northeastern taxa. Twenty-seven of the 38 bird species for which we have adequate long-term records have expanded their ranges predominantly in a northward direction. There is some evidence to suggest that novel species, including pests and

  11. Climate change impact on Balearic shearwater through a trophic cascade.

    PubMed

    Luczak, C; Beaugrand, G; Jaffré, M; Lenoir, S

    2011-10-23

    A recent study showed that a critically endangered migratory predator species, the Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus, rapidly expanded northwards in northeast Atlantic waters after the mid-1990s. As a significant positive correlation was found between the long-term changes in the abundance of this seabird and sea temperature around the British Isles, it was hypothesized that the link between the biogeographic shift and temperature occurred through the food web. Here, we test this conjecture and reveal concomitant changes in a regional index of sea temperature, plankton (total calanoid copepod), fish prey (anchovy and sardine) and the Balearic shearwater for the period 1980-2003. All three trophic levels exhibit a significant shift detected between 1994 and 1996. Our findings therefore support the assertion of both a direct and an indirect effect of climate change on the spatial distribution of post-breeding Balearic shearwater through a trophic cascade.

  12. Climate change impacts on dunes erosion in the Netherlands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Winter, Renske; Ruessink, Gerben

    2016-04-01

    The dunes in the Netherlands are occasionally eroded as a result of storms and corresponding storm surge levels and extreme waves. We discuss the effect of climate change and the corresponding sea level rise on dune erosion. With the XBeach dune erosion model we studied two representative profiles and analysed the effect of sea-level rise ranging from 0.20 to 2.50 m on dune erosion, as well as changes in the angle of wave incidence. The eroded volume in our XBeach model under storm conditions is in the order of magnitude of previous studies. In contrast with the Bruun-rule, which suggests a relation between sea-level rise and retreat distance, we found a linear relation between SLR and the amount of eroded volume of the dunes. Changes in the wave angle from shore normal to ~40 degrees, increase the erosion volume to the same extend as 40 cm sea-level rise.

  13. Adapting to and coping with the threat and impacts of climate change.

    PubMed

    Reser, Joseph P; Swim, Janet K

    2011-01-01

    This article addresses the nature and challenge of adaptation in the context of global climate change. The complexity of "climate change" as threat, environmental stressor, risk domain, and impacting process with dramatic environmental and human consequences requires a synthesis of perspectives and models from diverse areas of psychology to adequately communicate and explain how a more psychological framing of the human dimensions of global environmental change can greatly inform and enhance effective and collaborative climate change adaptation and mitigation policies and research. An integrative framework is provided that identifies and considers important mediating and moderating parameters and processes relating to climate change adaptation, with particular emphasis given to environmental stress and stress and coping perspectives. This psychological perspective on climate change adaptation highlights crucial aspects of adaptation that have been neglected in the arena of climate change science. Of particular importance are intra-individual and social "psychological adaptation" processes that powerfully mediate public risk perceptions and understandings, effective coping responses and resilience, overt behavioral adjustment and change, and psychological and social impacts. This psychological window on climate change adaptation is arguably indispensable to genuinely multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary research and policy initiatives addressing the impacts of climate change.

  14. Impacts of Future Climate Change on California Perennial Crop Yields: Model Projections with Climate and Crop Uncertainties

    SciTech Connect

    Lobell, D; Field, C; Cahill, K; Bonfils, C

    2006-01-10

    Most research on the agricultural impacts of climate change has focused on the major annual crops, yet perennial cropping systems are less adaptable and thus potentially more susceptible to damage. Improved assessments of yield responses to future climate are needed to prioritize adaptation strategies in the many regions where perennial crops are economically and culturally important. These impact assessments, in turn, must rely on climate and crop models that contain often poorly defined uncertainties. We evaluated the impact of climate change on six major perennial crops in California: wine grapes, almonds, table grapes, oranges, walnuts, and avocados. Outputs from multiple climate models were used to evaluate climate uncertainty, while multiple statistical crop models, derived by resampling historical databases, were used to address crop response uncertainties. We find that, despite these uncertainties, climate change in California is very likely to put downward pressure on yields of almonds, walnuts, avocados, and table grapes by 2050. Without CO{sub 2} fertilization or adaptation measures, projected losses range from 0 to >40% depending on the crop and the trajectory of climate change. Climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than crop model uncertainty, although the latter was substantial for several crops. Opportunities for expansion into cooler regions are identified, but this adaptation would require substantial investments and may be limited by non-climatic constraints. Given the long time scales for growth and production of orchards and vineyards ({approx}30 years), climate change should be an important factor in selecting perennial varieties and deciding whether and where perennials should be planted.

  15. Climate Change Science, Impacts, Solutions - A Senior Science Course for Post-Secondary Students

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrne, J. M.; Little, L. J.; Barnes, C. C.; Mirmasoudi, S.; Mansouri Kouhestani, F.; Reiger, C.; Rodriguez Bueno, R. A.

    2015-12-01

    The role of humanity in warming the global climate is well defined. The research community has predicted and documented many of the early impacts of climate change. The research literature has extensive assessments of future impacts on environment, cities, agriculture, human health, infrastructure, social and political changes, and the risks of military conflict. Society is facing massive infrastructure redevelopment, protection and possible abandonment due to increasing weather extremes. We have reached the point where science consensus is obvious and the population over much of the developed and developing world understands the urgency - humanity is changing the climate. The challenge is helping people help themselves. People understand there are consequences - they want to know how to minimize those consequences, and how to adapt to minimize the impacts. There is a dire need for a senior level course that addresses the key issues across disciplines. This course should cover a range of topics across many disciplinary boundaries, including: an introduction to the science, politics, health and well-being challenges of climate change; likely changes to personal and community lifestyles; consumption of energy and other resources. Population migration due to climate change impacts is a critical topic. Most important, the course must address the solutions to climate change. The population is demanding the power to address this massive challenge. This course will provide a multimedia curriculum on the impacts and solutions to our climate change dilemma.

  16. Climate change and land-use change impact on Western African river basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mariotti, Laura; Coppola, Erika; Giorgi, Filippo

    2010-05-01

    The main resource in western Africa is agriculture and therefore availability and quality of fresh water resources threaten food production in many regions. Quantifying the impact of climate and land-use change in very vulnerable regions like western Africa is therefore of crucial importance for developing appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this work the International Center for theoretical Physic (ICTP) regional climate model (RegCM3) is used to perform a 120 (1980-2100) years climate change simulation under the A1B scenario using ECHAM5 as boundary condition (BC). To further investigate which it would be the combined effect of the land-use change together with the climate change a 10 years time simulation has been completed using the future projected land-use from IIASA (The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis). Both simulations have been coupled with a physical based fully distributed hydrological model (CHyM) to asses which it would be the final effect of climate and land-use change on the river discharge. The two rivers used for this analysis are the Niger and Volta basin. The CHyM model has been validated coupling fist the hydrological model with a perfect boundary regional model simulation using ERA-interim as BC and using the runoff observations available along the two river basins. The model is able to reproduce the monthly seasonal cycle in both river basins reasonably well, therefore this allow us to use the same setting for a climate and land-use change simulation. Two hydrological time slice simulations have been performed with and without land-use change included. Results are presented and discussed for the monsoon season (JJA) on a station based, for the same stations used for validation purposed, but also the spatial change in discharge is presented in both cases and compared with the simple precipitation change observed in the region. Although the portion of change in precipitation due to the green house gases

  17. Impacts of climate change on mangrove ecosystems: A region by region overview

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ward, Raymond D.; Friess, Daniel A.; Day, Richard H.; MacKenzie, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Inter-related and spatially variable climate change factors including sea level rise, increased storminess, altered precipitation regime and increasing temperature are impacting mangroves at regional scales. This review highlights extreme regional variation in climate change threats and impacts, and how these factors impact the structure of mangrove communities, their biodiversity and geomorphological setting. All these factors interplay to determine spatially variable resiliency to climate change impacts, and because mangroves are varied in type and geographical location, these systems are good models for understanding such interactions at different scales. Sea level rise is likely to influence mangroves in all regions although local impacts are likely to be more varied. Changes in the frequency and intensity of storminess are likely to have a greater impact on N and Central America, Asia, Australia, and East Africa than West Africa and S. America. This review also highlights the numerous geographical knowledge gaps of climate change impacts, with some regions particularly understudied (e.g., Africa and the Middle East). While there has been a recent drive to address these knowledge gaps especially in South America and Asia, further research is required to allow researchers to tease apart the processes that influence both vulnerability and resilience to climate change. A more globally representative view of mangroves would allow us to better understand the importance of mangrove type and landscape setting in determining system resiliency to future climate change.

  18. Economic Evidence on the Health Impacts of Climate Change in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Hutton, Guy; Menne, Bettina

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND In responding to the health impacts of climate change, economic evidence and tools inform decision makers of the efficiency of alternative health policies and interventions. In a time when sweeping budget cuts are affecting all tiers of government, economic evidence on health protection from climate change spending enables comparison with other public spending. METHODS The review included 53 countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) European Region. Literature was obtained using a Medline and Internet search of key terms in published reports and peer-reviewed literature, and from institutions working on health and climate change. Articles were included if they provided economic estimation of the health impacts of climate change or adaptation measures to protect health from climate change in the WHO European Region. Economic studies are classified under health impact cost, health adaptation cost, and health economic evaluation (comparing both costs and impacts). RESULTS A total of 40 relevant studies from Europe were identified, covering the health damage or adaptation costs related to the health effects of climate change and response measures to climate-sensitive diseases. No economic evaluation studies were identified of response measures specific to the impacts of climate change. Existing studies vary in terms of the economic outcomes measured and the methods for evaluation of health benefits. The lack of robust health impact data underlying economic studies significantly affects the availability and precision of economic studies. CONCLUSIONS Economic evidence in European countries on the costs of and response to climate-sensitive diseases is extremely limited and fragmented. Further studies are urgently needed that examine health impacts and the costs and efficiency of alternative responses to climate-sensitive health conditions, in particular extreme weather events (other than heat) and potential emerging diseases and other conditions

  19. Robust features of future climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sultan, B.; Guan, K.; Kouressy, M.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.; Lobell, D. B.

    2014-10-01

    West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate hazards and better quantification and understanding of the impact of climate change on crop yields are urgently needed. Here we provide an assessment of near-term climate change impacts on sorghum yields in West Africa and account for uncertainties both in future climate scenarios and in crop models. Towards this goal, we use simulations of nine bias-corrected CMIP5 climate models and two crop models (SARRA-H and APSIM) to evaluate the robustness of projected crop yield impacts in this area. In broad agreement with the full CMIP5 ensemble, our subset of bias-corrected climate models projects a mean warming of +2.8 °C in the decades of 2031-2060 compared to a baseline of 1961-1990 and a robust change in rainfall in West Africa with less rain in the Western part of the Sahel (Senegal, South-West Mali) and more rain in Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, South-West Niger). Projected rainfall deficits are concentrated in early monsoon season in the Western part of the Sahel while positive rainfall changes are found in late monsoon season all over the Sahel, suggesting a shift in the seasonality of the monsoon. In response to such climate change, but without accounting for direct crop responses to CO2, mean crop yield decreases by about 16-20% and year-to-year variability increases in the Western part of the Sahel, while the eastern domain sees much milder impacts. Such differences in climate and impacts projections between the Western and Eastern parts of the Sahel are highly consistent across the climate and crop models used in this study. We investigate the robustness of impacts for different choices of cultivars, nutrient treatments, and crop responses to CO2. Adverse impacts on mean yield and yield variability are lowest for modern cultivars, as their short and nearly fixed growth cycle appears to be more resilient to the seasonality shift of the monsoon, thus suggesting shorter season varieties could be considered a potential

  20. Remote sensing for estimating agricultural land use change as the impact of climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pramudya, Y.; Komariah; Dewi, W. S.; Sumani; Mujiyo; Sukoco, T. A.; Rozaki, Z.

    2016-05-01

    Agricultural land use conversion is inevitable to meet the needs of growing population, together with climate change issue which has become global concern. This research aims at investigating the impact of climate change on agriculture by identifying land use conversion in part of Central Java, Indonesia, namely Tegal District. Research was carried out in August 2014 until March 2015.This is a survey research with explorative descriptive method, data processing using ENVI 4.5. and ArcGIS 10.1. The satellite image of Landsat was analyzed by determining and comparing the land use changes of the last 20 years, then the interview data with farmers was analyzed using logistic regression. The results showed that many lands converted into settlement, with increasing rate in 2003-2014 was almost twice than 1994-2003, while the reduce of irrigation rice field lands are lower in the period of 2003-2014 than 1994-2003. It is presumed that the factors encourage irrigation rice field land conversion are erratic rainfall, floods in the 1990s, and water lack in the 2000s. This paper discusses briefly about agricultural land use conversion as the impact of the past and current climate variability on farm land.

  1. Choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological-impact assessments and conservation decisions.

    PubMed

    Snover, Amy K; Mantua, Nathan J; Littell, Jeremy S; Alexander, Michael A; McClure, Michelle M; Nye, Janet

    2013-12-01

    Increased concern over climate change is demonstrated by the many efforts to assess climate effects and develop adaptation strategies. Scientists, resource managers, and decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but they struggle with its uncertainty. With the current proliferation of climate simulations and downscaling methods, scientifically credible strategies for selecting a subset for analysis and decision making are needed. Drawing on a rich literature in climate science and impact assessment and on experience working with natural resource scientists and decision makers, we devised guidelines for choosing climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment that recognize irreducible uncertainty in climate projections and address common misconceptions about this uncertainty. This approach involves identifying primary local climate drivers by climate sensitivity of the biological system of interest; determining appropriate sources of information for future changes in those drivers; considering how well processes controlling local climate are spatially resolved; and selecting scenarios based on considering observed emission trends, relative importance of natural climate variability, and risk tolerance and time horizon of the associated decision. The most appropriate scenarios for a particular analysis will not necessarily be the most appropriate for another due to differences in local climate drivers, biophysical linkages to climate, decision characteristics, and how well a model simulates the climate parameters and processes of interest. Given these complexities, we recommend interaction among climate scientists, natural and physical scientists, and decision makers throughout the process of choosing and using climate-change scenarios for ecological impact assessment. Selección y Uso de Escenarios de Cambio Climático para Estudios de Impacto Ecológico y Decisiones de Conservación.

  2. Two Degrees of Separation: Abrupt Climate Change and the Adverse Impact to US National Security

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-04-01

    trend of increasing GHG emissions is marginally impacting or irrelevant altogether. “Other factors, including sun spots, solar winds, variations ...climate variations over a wide range of time scales, making it a natural sensor of climate variability and providing a visible expression of climate...many observed changes in phenology and distribution have been associated with rising water temperatures, as well as changes in salinity, oxygen levels

  3. Evaluating the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in a small Mediterranean watershed.

    PubMed

    Ertürk, Ali; Ekdal, Alpaslan; Gürel, Melike; Karakaya, Nusret; Guzel, Cigdem; Gönenç, Ethem

    2014-11-15

    Western Mediterranean Region of Turkey is subject to considerable impacts of climate change that may adversely affect the water resources. Decrease in annual precipitation and winter precipitation as well as increase in temperatures are observed since 1960s. In this study, the impact of climate change on groundwater resources in part of Köyceğiz-Dalyan Watershed was evaluated. Evaluation was done by quantifying the impacts of climate change on the water budget components. Hydrological modeling was conducted with SWAT model which was calibrated and validated successfully. Climate change and land use scenarios were used to calculate the present and future climate change impacts on water budgets. According to the simulation results, almost all water budget components have decreased. SWAT was able to allocate less irrigation water because of the decrease of overall water due to the climate change. This resulted in an increase of water stressed days and temperature stressed days whereas crop yields have decreased according to the simulation results. The results indicated that lack of water is expected to be a problem in the future. In this manner, investigations on switching to more efficient irrigation methods and to crops with less water consumption are recommended as adaptation measures to climate change impacts.

  4. Impact of climate change on larch budmoth cyclic outbreaks

    PubMed Central

    Iyengar, Sudharsana V.; Balakrishnan, Janaki; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    Periodic outbreaks of the larch budmoth Zeiraphera diniana population (and the massive forest defoliation they engender) have been recorded in the Alps over the centuries and are known for their remarkable regularity. But these have been conspicuously absent since 1981. On the other hand, budmoth outbreaks have been historically unknown in the larches of the Carpathian Tatra mountains. To resolve this puzzle, we propose here a model which includes the influence of climate and explains both the 8–9 year periodicity in the budmoth cycle and the variations from this, as well as the absence of cycles. We successfully capture the observed trend of relative frequencies of outbreaks, reproducing the dominant periodicities seen. We contend that the apparent collapse of the cycle in 1981 is due to changing climatic conditions following a tipping point and propose the recurrence of the cycle with a changed periodicity of 40 years – the next outbreak could occur in 2021. Our model also predicts longer cycles. PMID:27293118

  5. Climate Change in the Tahoe Basin: Trends, Impacts and Drivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coats, R. N.

    2008-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to quantify the decadal-scale time trends in air temperature, precipitation form and intensity, spring snowmelt timing, and lake temperature in the Tahoe basin, and to relate the trends to regional climatic trends in the western U.S. Temperature data for six long-term weather stations in the Tahoe region were analyzed for trends in annual and monthly means of maximum and minimum daily temperature. Precipitation data (1910-2007) at Tahoe City were analyzed for trends in form (rain versus snow), decadal standard deviation, and intensity of rainfall. Daily streamflow data for nine gaging stations in and around the Tahoe basin were examined for trends in snowmelt timing, by two methods, and an existing record for the temperature of Lake Tahoe was updated. The results for the Tahoe basin, which contrast somewhat with the surrounding region, indicate strong upward trends in air temperature, a shift from rain to snow, a shift in snowmelt timing to earlier dates of about 0.4 days per year since 1961, increased rainfall intensity, increased interannual variability, and continued increase in the temperature of Lake Tahoe. This contrast, together with energy budget considerations, suggests the 'lake climate change enhancement hypothesis': that the lake itself may be enhancing the climate-warming effects of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Continued warming in the Tahoe basin has important implications for efforts to manage biodiversity and maintain clarity of the lake. Documented effects on the lake include 1) increased thermal stability and resistance to mixing; 2) changes in depth and duration of the thermocline; 3) invasion by non-native warm- water fish; and 4) changes in phytoplankton populations. Changes hypothesized but not yet measured or modeled include 1) a change in the 'insertion depth' of streams flowing into the lake; 2) increased inflow of nutrients and fine (< 10 microns) sediment, which impairs water clarity; 3

  6. The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe.

    PubMed

    Jerez, Sonia; Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Montávez, Juan Pedro; López-Romero, Jose María; Thais, Françoise; Bartok, Blanka; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Nikulin, Grigory; Kotlarski, Sven; van Meijgaard, Erik; Teichmann, Claas; Wild, Martin

    2015-12-11

    Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (-14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.

  7. The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Jerez, Sonia; Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Montávez, Juan Pedro; López-Romero, Jose María; Thais, Françoise; Bartok, Blanka; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Nikulin, Grigory; Kotlarski, Sven; van Meijgaard, Erik; Teichmann, Claas; Wild, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (−14%;+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector. PMID:26658608

  8. The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jerez, Sonia; Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Montávez, Juan Pedro; López-Romero, Jose María; Thais, Françoise; Bartok, Blanka; Christensen, Ole Bøssing; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Nikulin, Grigory; Kotlarski, Sven; van Meijgaard, Erik; Teichmann, Claas; Wild, Martin

    2015-12-01

    Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in the use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared with the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range (-14%+2%), with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector.

  9. Climate change impacts on water salinity and health.

    PubMed

    Vineis, Paolo; Chan, Queenie; Khan, Aneire

    2011-12-01

    It is estimated that 884 million people do not have access to clean drinking water in the world. Increasing salinity of natural drinking water sources has been reported as one of the many problems that affect low-income countries, but one which has not been fully explored. This problem is exacerbated by rising sea-levels, owing to climate change, and other contributing factors, like changes in fresh water flow from rivers and increased shrimp farming along the coastal areas. In some countries, desalination plants are used to partly remove salt and other minerals from water sources, but this is unlikely to be a sustainable option for low-income countries affected by high salinity. Using the example of Bangladesh as a model country, the following research indicates that the problem of salinity can have serious implications with regard to rising rates of hypertension and other public health problems among large sectors of the worldwide population.

  10. Tailored scenarios for streamflow climate change impacts based on the perturbation of precipitation and evapotranspiration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ntegeka, Victor; Willems, Patrick; Baguis, Pierre; Roulin, Emmanuel

    2015-04-01

    It is advisable to account for a wide range of uncertainty by including the maximum possible number of climate models and scenarios for future impacts. As this is not always feasible, impact assessments are inevitably performed with a limited set of scenarios. The development of tailored scenarios is a challenge that needs more attention as the number of available climate change simulations grows. Whether these scenarios are representative enough for climate change impacts is a question that needs addressing. This study presents a methodology of constructing tailored scenarios for assessing runoff flows including extreme conditions (peak flows) from an ensemble of future climate change signals of precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (ETo) derived from the climate model simulations. The aim of the tailoring process is to formulate scenarios that can optimally represent the uncertainty spectrum of climate scenarios. These tailored scenarios have the advantage of being few in number as well as having a clear description of the seasonal variation of the climate signals, hence allowing easy interpretation of the implications of future changes. The tailoring process requires an analysis of the hydrological impacts from the likely future change signals from all available climate model simulations in a simplified (computationally less expensive) impact model. Historical precipitation and ETo time series are perturbed with the climate change signals based on a quantile perturbation technique that accounts for the changes in extremes. For precipitation, the change in wetday frequency is taken into account using a markov-chain approach. Resulting hydrological impacts from the perturbed time series are then subdivided into high, mean and low hydrological impacts using a quantile change analysis. From this classification, the corresponding precipitation and ETo change factors are back-tracked on a seasonal basis to determine precipitation-ETo covariation. The

  11. Viewpoints on impacts of climate change on soil quality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dilly, Oliver; Pfeiffer, Eva-Maria; Trasar-Cepeda, Carmen; Nannipieri, Paolo

    2010-05-01

    Climate projections indicate a critical increase in temperature and modification of the precipitation pattern for the next century worldwide (IPCC 2007). Higher temperature increase are expected in polar than in temperate and tropical regions. In addition, studies on the response of microbial metabolism to temperature changes showed lower sensitivity at higher temperature level as analyzed by Q10 values (Kirschbaum 1995). The temperature response as indicated by the Q10 value refers to physiological response including enzyme configuration and substrate availability. For soils from an undisturbed forest site in eastern Amazonia, Knorr et al. (2005) observed even that the apparent pool turnover times are insensitive to temperature and received evidence that non-labile soil organic carbon was more sensitive to temperature than labile soil organic carbon. Linking the climate projections and the findings related to Q10 values suggests that the microbial activity may be stimulated to a higher degree at northern latitudes than at lower latitudes. But few studies address the role of temperature changes on soil organic matter pool and microbial biomass and activities although temperature changes may be important (Dilly et al. 2003). On top, the thawing of permafrost soil (24 % of exposed land in the Northern Hemisphere) represents a further threat since erosion processes will occur and captured gases may evolve to the atmosphere. Finally, dryness and drying-rewetting cycling that are affected by climate change are regulating soil organic carbon turnover (Mamilov and Dilly 2001). The lecture will summarize basic findings and positive feedback on our climate system and also address the concept of ‘soil energ-omics' including the interaction between respiration and microbial colonization and the respective metabolic quotient (Dilly 2006). Key words: Q10, Nitrogen deposition, Permafrost, Carbon turnover, Microbial biomass, adjustment References Dilly, O., 2006. Evaluating

  12. Basin-wide Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Ecosystems and Biodiversity

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mekong ecosystems are under pressure from a number of "drivers", including rapid economic development, population growth, unsustainable resource use, and climate change. Ecological modeling can help assess vulnerability and impacts of these drivers on the Lower Mekong Basin.

  13. Is the impact of future climate change on hydro-climatic conditions significant? - A climate change study for an Eastern European catchment area.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pavlik, Dirk; Söhl, Dennis; Bernhofer, Christian

    2014-05-01

    The future change of climatic conditions is, among others, closely linked to future hydrological changes. One important aspect of these issues is the question of future availability of water resources. A changed climatic water balance, as indicator for potential water availability, has far-reaching consequences for the water cycle, hydrological conditions, ecology, water management, the energy business, agriculture and forestry, and for anthropogenic use of the river. We generated regional climate projections via dynamic downscaling for the catchment area of the Western Bug river in the border area of Poland, Belarus, and Ukraine. The hydro-climatic conditions of the past and their projected future changes in the catchment were analyzed based on 2m-temperature, precipitation, potential evaporation and climatic water balance. Up to the end of the century, the used IPCC scenarios B1 and A2 lead to warming for each month in the long-term mean, with highest warming rates in winter. Instead, precipitation does not change in the long-term yearly mean. However, the intra-annual distribution of monthly precipitation sums shifts with an increase in winter and a strong decrease in summer. Combined, this leads to a changed climatic water balance with a stronger deficit in summer and a higher gain in winter. Particular in the south-eastern part of the catchment, the summer deficit cannot be compensated within the annual cycle. It raised the question: are these changes statistically significant and thus robust for use in further impact studies? Using a significance analysis, we found, that climatic changes in temperature, precipitation and potential evaporation and thus the climatic water balance change is most significant for scenario A2 from 2071 to 2100. The temperature changes are significant throughout the year. For the other variables changes are most significant in the late summer months (July, August, and September) and the winter months (December, January, and February

  14. Projecting Poverty at the Household Scale to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Poor People

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hallegatte, S.; Rozenberg, J.

    2015-12-01

    This paper quantifies the potential impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and 2050, in 92 countries covering 90% of the developing world population. It accounts for the deep uncertainties that characterize future socio-economic evolutions and the lack of data regarding the condition and livelihood of poor people. It also considers many impacts of climate change, another source of uncertainty. We use a micro-simulation model based on household surveys and explore a wide range of uncertainties on future structural change, productivity growth or demographic changes. This results, for each country, in the creation of several hundred scenarios for future income growth and income distribution. We then explore the resulting space of possible futures and use scenario discovery techniques to identify the main drivers of inequalities and poverty reduction. We find that redistribution and structural change are powerful drivers of poverty and inequality reduction, except in low-income countries. In the poorest countries in Africa, reducing poverty cannot rely on redistribution but requires low population growth and productivity growth in agriculture. Once we have explored the space of possible outcomes for poverty and inequalities, we choose two representative scenarios of the best and worst cases and model the impacts of climate change in each of these two scenarios. Climate change impacts are modeled through 4 channels. First, climate change has an impact on labor productivity growth for people who work outside because of higher temperatures. Second, climate change has an impact on human capital because of more severe stunting in some places. Third, climate change has an impact on physical capital via more frequent natural disasters. Fourth, climate change has an impact on consumption because of changes in food prices. Impacts are very heterogeneous across countries and are mostly concentrated in African and South-East Asian countries. For high radiative forcing (RCP8

  15. Human Health Impacts of and Public Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, K. L.

    2007-12-01

    Weather and climate are among the factors that determine the geographic range and incidence of several major causes of ill health, including undernutrition, diarrheal diseases and other conditions due to unsafe water and lack of basic sanitation, and malaria. The Human Health chapter in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that climate change has begun to negatively affect human health, and that projected climate change will increase the risks of climate-sensitive health outcomes, particularly in lower-income populations, predominantly within tropical/subtropical countries. Those at greatest risk include the urban poor, older adults, children, traditional societies, subsistence farmers, and coastal populations, particularly in low income countries. The cause-and-effect chain from climate change to changing patterns of health determinants and outcomes is complex and includes socioeconomic, institutional, and other factors. The severity of future impacts will be determined by changes in climate as well as by concurrent changes in nonclimatic factors and by the adaptation measures implemented to reduce negative impacts. Public health has a long history of effectively intervening to reduce risks to the health of individuals and communities. Lessons learned from more than 150 years of research and intervention can provide insights to guide the design and implementation of effective and efficient interventions to reduce the current and projected impacts of climate variability and change.

  16. U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Overview of Sectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wuebbles, D.

    2009-12-01

    The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts by sector, including water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The resulting findings for the climate change impacts on these sectors are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in

  17. Impact of climate change effects on contamination of cereal grains with deoxynivalenol.

    PubMed

    Van der Fels-Klerx, H J; van Asselt, Esther D; Madsen, Marianne S; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is expected to aggravate feed and food safety problems of crops; however, quantitative estimates are scarce. This study aimed to estimate impacts of climate change effects on deoxynivalenol contamination of wheat and maize grown in the Netherlands by 2040. Quantitative modelling was applied, considering both direct effects of changing climate on toxin contamination and indirect effects via shifts in crop phenology. Climate change projections for the IPCC A1B emission scenario were used for the scenario period 2031-2050 relative to the baseline period of 1975-1994. Climatic data from two different global and regional climate model combinations were used. A weather generator was applied for downscaling climate data to local conditions. Crop phenology models and prediction models for DON contamination used, each for winter wheat and grain maize. Results showed that flowering and full maturity of both wheat and maize will advance with future climate. Flowering advanced on average 5 and 11 days for wheat, and 7 and 14 days for maize (two climate model combinations). Full maturity was on average 10 and 17 days earlier for wheat, and 19 and 36 days earlier for maize. On the country level, contamination of wheat with deoxynivalenol decreased slightly, but not significantly. Variability between regions was large, and individual regions showed a significant increase in deoxynivalenol concentrations. For maize, an overall decrease in deoxynivalenol contamination was projected, which was significant for one climate model combination, but not significant for the other one. In general, results disagree with previous reported expectations of increased feed and food safety hazards under climate change. This study illustrated the relevance of using quantitative models to estimate the impacts of climate change effects on food safety, and of considering both direct and indirect effects when assessing climate change impacts on crops and related food safety hazards.

  18. Weather and Climate Change Impacts on Human Mortality in Bangladesh

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burkart, Katrin; Lesk, Corey; Bader, Daniel; Horton, Radley; Kinney, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    Weather and climate profoundly affect human health. Several studies have demonstrated a U-, V-, or J-shaped temperature-mortality relationship with increasing death rates at the lower and particularly upper end of the temperature distribution. The objectives of this study were (1) to analyze the relationship between temperature and mortality in Bangladesh for different subpopulations and (2) to project future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. We used (non-)parametric Generalized Additive Models adjusted for trend, season and day of the month to analyze the effect of temperature on daily mortality. We found a decrease in mortality with increasing temperature over a wide range of values; between the 90th and 95th percentile an abrupt increase in mortality was observed which was particularly pronounced for the elderly above the age of 65 years, for males, as well as in urban areas and in areas with a high socio-economic status. Daily historical and future temperature values were obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. This dataset is comprised of downscaled climate scenarios for the globe that are derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The derived dose-response functions were used to estimate the number of heat-related deaths occurring during the 1990s (1980-2005), the 2020s (2011-2040) and the 2050s (2041-2070). We estimated that excess deaths due to heat will triple from the 1990s to the 2050s, with an annual number of 0.5 million excess deaths in 1990 to and expected number of 1.5 millions in 2050.

  19. Human impacts on terrestrial hydrology: climate change versus pumping and irrigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferguson, Ian M.; Maxwell, Reed M.

    2012-12-01

    Global climate change is altering terrestrial water and energy budgets, with subsequent impacts on surface and groundwater resources; recent studies have shown that local water management practices such as groundwater pumping and irrigation similarly alter terrestrial water and energy budgets over many agricultural regions, with potential feedbacks on weather and climate. Here we use a fully-integrated hydrologic model to directly compare effects of climate change and water management on terrestrial water and energy budgets of a representative agricultural watershed in the semi-arid Southern Great Plains, USA. At local scales, we find that the impacts of pumping and irrigation on latent heat flux, potential recharge and water table depth are similar in magnitude to the impacts of changing temperature and precipitation; however, the spatial distributions of climate and management impacts are substantially different. At the basin scale, the impacts on stream discharge and groundwater storage are remarkably similar. Notably, for the watershed and scenarios studied here, the changes in groundwater storage and stream discharge in response to a 2.5 °C temperature increase are nearly equivalent to those from groundwater-fed irrigation. Our results imply that many semi-arid basins worldwide that practice groundwater pumping and irrigation may already be experiencing similar impacts on surface water and groundwater resources to a warming climate. These results demonstrate that accurate assessment of climate change impacts and development of effective adaptation and mitigation strategies must account for local water management practices.

  20. Three Connected Climate Education Interactives: Carbon Cycle, Earth System Energy Flows, and Climate Change Impacts/Adaptations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sussman, A.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Islands Climate Education Partnership (PCEP) serves the U.S. Affiliated Pacific Island (USAPI) Region. The international entities served by PCEP are the state of Hawai'i (USA); three Freely Associated States (the Federated States of Micronesia, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, and the Republic of Palau), and three Territories (Guam, Commonwealth of Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa). Funded by NSF, the PCEP aims to educate the region's students and citizens in ways that exemplify modern science and indigenous environmental knowledge, address the urgency of climate change impacts, and focus on adaptation strategies that can increase resiliency with respect to climate change impacts. Unfortunately the vast majority of the science texts used in schools come from the US mainland and feature contexts that do not relate to the lives of Pacific island students. The curricular materials also tend to be older and to have very weak climate science content, especially with respect to tropical islands and climate change. In collaboration with public broadcast station WGBH, PCEP has developed three climate education interactives that sequentially provide an introduction to key climate change education concepts. The first in the series focuses on the global carbon cycle and connects increased atmospheric CO2 with rising global temperatures. The second analyzes Earth system energy flows to explain the key role of the increased greenhouse effect. The third focuses on four climate change impacts (higher temperatures, rising sea level, changes in precipitation, and ocean acidification), and adaptation strategies to increase resiliency of local ecosystems and human systems. While the interactives have a Pacific island visual and text perspective, they are broadly applicable for other education audiences. Learners can use the interactives to engage with the basic science concepts, and then apply the climate change impacts to their own contexts.

  1. Basin-Wide Assessment on Impacts of Climate Change on ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The Lower Mekong Basin (LMB) covers parts of riparian countries of Lao PDR, Viet Nam, Cambodia and Thailand and supports over 60 million people for food and livelihood. Recently, the LMB is threatened by climate change. This paper aims to quantify water yields and sediment retention at current and in short and long-term climate scenarios. The InVEST model was used to spatially assess both ecosystem services. The results indicated that the estimated annual water yield in the entire LMB in 2010 was 639 km3 and the average soil erosion was 43.2 ton/ha/year. In addition, 175 million tons of sediment were predicted to export from the LMB. The predicted annual water yields in 2030 and 2060 derived from a drier overall projection in combination of medium and high emissions indicated a substantial reduction of predicted water yields by 9-24% from the baseline and a reduction of soil erosion of 7-10% was predicted. The effects of the severe drought were forecasted in northern and southern Lao PDR and central Cambodia due to these areas lack of irrigation system. In contrast, the increased seasonality and the wetter rainfall scenarios in connection with high emissions would result in an amplification of 5-26% from the current runoff and would produce greater amount of soil erosion in the watershed and sediment load transported to the outlet. The research results are being embedded in the Mekong Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan 2020. Presented at ACES 2016

  2. Impact of climate change on human infectious diseases: Empirical evidence and human adaptation.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiaoxu; Lu, Yongmei; Zhou, Sen; Chen, Lifan; Xu, Bing

    2016-01-01

    Climate change refers to long-term shifts in weather conditions and patterns of extreme weather events. It may lead to changes in health threat to human beings, multiplying existing health problems. This review examines the scientific evidences on the impact of climate change on human infectious diseases. It identifies research progress and gaps on how human society may respond to, adapt to, and prepare for the related changes. Based on a survey of related publications between 1990 and 2015, the terms used for literature selection reflect three aspects--the components of infectious diseases, climate variables, and selected infectious diseases. Humans' vulnerability to the potential health impacts by climate change is evident in literature. As an active agent, human beings may control the related health effects that may be effectively controlled through adopting proactive measures, including better understanding of the climate change patterns and of the compound disease-specific health effects, and effective allocation of technologies and resources to promote healthy lifestyles and public awareness. The following adaptation measures are recommended: 1) to go beyond empirical observations of the association between climate change and infectious diseases and develop more scientific explanations, 2) to improve the prediction of spatial-temporal process of climate change and the associated shifts in infectious diseases at various spatial and temporal scales, and 3) to establish locally effective early warning systems for the health effects of predicated climate change.

  3. Aerosol physical properties and their impact on climate change processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strzalkowska, Agata; Zielinski, Tymon; Petelski, Tomasz; Makuch, Przemyslaw; Pakszys, Paulina; Markuszewski, Piotr; Piskozub, Jacek; Drozdowska, Violetta; Gutowska, Dorota; Rozwadowska, Anna

    2013-04-01

    Characterizing aerosols involves the specification of not only their spatial and temporal distributions but their multi-component composition, particle size distribution and physical properties as well. Due to their light attenuation and scattering properties, aerosols influence radiance measured by satellite for ocean color remote sensing. Studies of marine aerosol production and transport are important for many earth sciences such as cloud physics, atmospheric optics, environmental pollution studies, and interaction between ocean and atmosphere. It was one of the reasons for the growth in the number of research programs dealing with marine aerosols. Sea salt aerosols are among the most abundant components of the atmospheric aerosol, and thus it exerts a strong influence on radiation, cloud formation, meteorology and chemistry of the marine atmosphere. An accurate understanding and description of these mechanisms is crucial to modeling climate and climate change. This work provides information on combined aerosol studies made with lidars and sun photometers onboard the ship and in different coastal areas. We concentrate on aerosol optical thickness and its variations with aerosol advections into the study area. We pay special attention to the problem of proper data collection and analyses techniques. We showed that in order to detect the dynamics of potential aerosol composition changes it is necessary to use data from different stations where measurements are made using the same techniques. The combination of such information with air mass back-trajectories and data collected at stations located on the route of air masses provides comprehensive picture of aerosol variations in the study area both vertically and horizontally. Acknowledgements: The support for this study was provided by the project Satellite Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Environment - SatBałtyk founded by European Union through European Regional Development Fund contract No. POIG 01

  4. Climate change impact on peatland and forest ecosystems of Russia

    SciTech Connect

    Kondrasheva, N.Yu.; Kobak, K.I.; Turchinovich, I.Ye.

    1996-12-31

    Paleoclimatic and paleobotanic reconstructions allow a conclusion that ecosystems and natural zones significantly changed due to climate fluctuations. The average long-term carbon accumulation in peatlands of Russia was estimated as 45.6 mln tons of carbon per year. During the Holocene the rate of peat accumulation changed. During the Subboreal period the rate of peat accumulation gradually decreased to 17 gC/m2 yr, reaching its lowest value in the Subatlantic period. Apparently, the rate of peat accumulation decreased in Subboreal period due to sharp cooling and precipitation decrease. Future rates of peat accumulation might be higher than the present one. Forest ecosystems of north-western Russia also significantly changed during the Holocene. In Atlantic time the boundary between middle and south taiga was located 500 km northward compared to the present and broad-leaved forest occupied large areas. According to their forecast, a mean global air temperature increase by 1.4 C is expected to result in a considerable decrease in coniferous forest area and an increase in mixed and broad-leaved forest area.

  5. Impact of climate change and adaptation strategies on crop production in Nigeria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.; Spano, D.

    2012-04-01

    The vulnerability of agricultural to climate change is of particular interest to policy makers because the high social and economical importance of agriculture sector in Nigeria, which contributes approximately 40 percent to total GDP and support 70 percent of the population. It is necessary to investigate the potential climate change impacts in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that will be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and implement and develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these changes. In this framework, this study aimed to assess the climate change impacts on Nigerian agricultural sector and to explore some of potential adaptation strategies for the most important crops in the food basket of the Country. The analysis was made using the DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT are tools that allows to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. In this analysis, for each selected crop, the models included into DSSAT-CSM software were ran, after a calibration phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop production. The climate data used for the analysis are derived by the Regional Circulation Model COSMO-CLM, from 1971 to 2065, at 8 km of spatial resolution. The RCM model output were "perturbed" with 10 Global Climate Models in order to have a wide variety of possible climate projections for impact analysis. Multiple combinations of soils and climate conditions, crop management and varieties were considered for each Agro-Ecological Zone of Nigeria. The climate impact assessment was made by comparing the yield obtained with the climate data for the present period and the yield obtainable under future changed climate conditions. The models ran by keeping

  6. Quantifying the impact of model inaccuracy in climate change impact assessment studies using an agro-hydrological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Droogers, P.; van Loon, A.; Immerzeel, W. W.

    2008-04-01

    Numerical simulation models are frequently applied to assess the impact of climate change on hydrology and agriculture. A common hypothesis is that unavoidable model errors are reflected in the reference situation as well as in the climate change situation so that by comparing reference to scenario model errors will level out. For a polder in The Netherlands an innovative procedure has been introduced, referred to as the Model-Scenario-Ratio (MSR), to express model inaccuracy on climate change impact assessment studies based on simulation models comparing a reference situation to a climate change situation. The SWAP (Soil Water Atmosphere Plant) model was used for the case study and the reference situation was compared to two climate change scenarios. MSR values close to 1, indicating that impact assessment is mainly a function of the scenario itself rather than of the quality of the model, were found for most indicators evaluated. A climate change scenario with enhanced drought conditions and indicators based on threshold values showed lower MSR values, indicating that model accuracy is an important component of the climate change impact assessment. It was concluded that the MSR approach can be applied easily and will lead to more robust impact assessment analyses.

  7. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology.This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in thesemi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-basedmodel is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCSCN)method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation,the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologicsimulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor inregulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increaseriver discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deservesattention in climate change adaptation planning.This dataset is associated with the following publication:Chen, H., S. Tong, H. Yang, and J. Yang. Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed. Hydrological Sciences Journal. IAHS LIMITED, Oxford, UK, 60(10): 1739-1758, (2015).

  8. An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varadan, R. Jayakumara; Kumar, Pramod; Jha, Girish Kumar; Pal, Suresh; Singh, Rashmi

    2015-12-01

    This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

  9. An exploratory study on occurrence and impact of climate change on agriculture in Tamil Nadu, India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varadan, R. Jayakumara; Kumar, Pramod; Jha, Girish Kumar; Pal, Suresh; Singh, Rashmi

    2017-02-01

    This study has been undertaken to examine the occurrence of climate change in Tamil Nadu, the southernmost state of India and its impact on rainfall pattern which is a primary constraint for agricultural production. Among the five sample stations examined across the state, the minimum temperature has increased significantly in Coimbatore while the same has decreased significantly in Vellore whereas both minimum and maximum temperatures have increased significantly in Madurai since 1969 with climate change occurring between late 1980s and early 1990s. As a result, the south-west monsoon has been disturbed with August rainfall increasing with more dispersion while September rainfall decreasing with less dispersion. Thus, September, the peak rainfall month of south-west monsoon before climate change, has become the monsoon receding month after climate change. Though there has been no change in the trend of the north-east monsoon, the quantity of October and November rainfall has considerably increased with increased dispersion after climate change. On the whole, south-west monsoon has decreased with decreased dispersion while north-east monsoon has increased with increased dispersion. Consequently, the season window for south-west monsoon crops has shortened while the north-east monsoon crops are left to fend against flood risk during their initial stages. Further, the incoherence in warming, climate change and rainfall impact seen across the state necessitates devising different indigenous and institutional adaptation strategies for different regions to overcome the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture.

  10. Impact of climate change on the streamflow hydrology of the Yangtze River in China

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Tuotuo River basin, the source region of the Yangtze River, is the key area, where the impact of climate change has been observed on many of the hydrological processes of this central region of the Tibetan Plateau. In this study, we examined six global climate models (GCMs) under three Respectively ...

  11. Focus on Agriculture and Forestry Benefits of Reducing Climate Change Impacts

    EPA Science Inventory

    The objective of this focus issue is to present the methods and results of modeling exercises that estimate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry under a consistent set of climate projections that represent futures with and without global-scale GHG mitigation....

  12. A Review of Quantitative Methods for Evaluating Impacts of Climate Change on Urban Water Infrastructure

    EPA Science Inventory

    It is widely accepted that global climate change will impact the regional and local climate and alter some aspects of the hydrologic cycle, which in turn can affect the performance of the urban water supply, wastewater and storm water infrastructur4e. How the urban water infrastr...

  13. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS IMPACT ON DISEASE IMBEDDED IN ECOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    We present the techniques of qualitative analysis of complex communities and discuss the impact of climate change as a press perturbation. In particular, we focus on the difficult problem of disease and parasites embedded in animal communities, notably zoonotic diseases. Climate ...

  14. Integrated Modelling of Climate Change Impacts in an Irrigated, Semi-arid Catchment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haslauer, C. P.; von Gunten, D.; Wöhling, T.; Rudolph, D. L.; Cirpka, O. A.

    2015-12-01

    Predicting the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes is a central challenge for water management. Commonly, studies on climate-change effects focus on surface flow and feed-backs between surface and subsurface flows are neglected frequently. Furthermore, changes in hydrological processes are generally not distributed realistically. Integrated catchment models, based on partial-differential-equations, have the potential of overcoming these difficulties. However, these models are complicated to use in realistic settings, notably because of their long simulation time. In this presentation, we demonstrate a successful application of an integrated catchment model (HydroGeoSphere) in a semi-arid catchment in north-east Spain. The study area recently underwent a transition to irrigated agriculture, which is reflected in our model evaluations conducted under varying irrigation conditions. To accelerate model calibration, we developed a novel calibration method based on a hierarchy of computational grids. The climate scenarios for the region are based on four regional climate models, which are downscaled using a weather generator. These scenarios are used to estimate climate change impacts on hydrologic parameters in different irrigation settings. The effects of climate change strongly depend on the presence of irrigation. Water table depth and low flows are more sensitive to climate change when irrigation is present, while peak flows exhibit a more pronounced response to climate in scenarios without irrigation. In addition to the climatic means, we examined the impacts of changes in drought conditions. We compare the outcomes of droughts predicted by our hydrological model with simpler approaches based on drought indices. We show that drought indices oversimplify future hydrological impacts of droughts and can result in biased estimation of drought impacts, especially if drought indices do not take temperature changes into account.

  15. A New Framework for Spatio-temporal Climate Change Impact Assessment for Terrestrial Wildlife

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lankford-Bingle, Amber J.; Svancara, Leona K.; Vierling, Kerri

    2015-12-01

    We describe a first step framework for climate change species' impact assessments that produces spatially and temporally heterogeneous models of climate impacts. Case study results are provided for great gray owl ( Strix nebulosa) in Idaho as an example of framework application. This framework applies species-specific sensitivity weights to spatial and seasonal models of climate exposure to produce spatial and seasonal models of climate impact. We also evaluated three methods of calculating sensitivity by comparing spatial models of combined exposure and sensitivity. We found the methods used to calculated sensitivity showed little difference, except where sensitivity was directional (i.e., more sensitive to an increase in temperature than a decrease). This approach may assist in the development of State Wildlife Action Plans and other wildlife management plans in the face of potential future climate change.

  16. Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.

    2012-01-01

    As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

  17. Ozone depletion and climate change: impacts on UV radiation.

    PubMed

    Bais, A F; McKenzie, R L; Bernhard, G; Aucamp, P J; Ilyas, M; Madronich, S; Tourpali, K

    2015-01-01

    We assess the importance of factors that determine the intensity of UV radiation at the Earth's surface. Among these, atmospheric ozone, which absorbs UV radiation, is of considerable importance, but other constituents of the atmosphere, as well as certain consequences of climate change, can also be major influences. Further, we assess the variations of UV radiation observed in the past and present, and provide projections for the future. Of particular interest are methods to measure or estimate UV radiation at the Earth's surface. These are needed for scientific understanding and, when they are sufficiently sensitive, they can serve as monitors of the effectiveness of the Montreal Protocol and its amendments. Also assessed are several aspects of UV radiation related to biological effects and health. The implications for ozone and UV radiation from two types of geoengineering methods that have been proposed to combat climate change are also discussed. In addition to ozone effects, the UV changes in the last two decades, derived from measurements, have been influenced by changes in aerosols, clouds, surface reflectivity, and, possibly, by solar activity. The positive trends of UV radiation observed after the mid-1990s over northern mid-latitudes are mainly due to decreases in clouds and aerosols. Despite some indications from measurements at a few stations, no statistically significant decreases in UV-B radiation attributable to the beginning of the ozone recovery have yet been detected. Projections for erythemal irradiance (UVery) suggest the following changes by the end of the 21(st) century (2090-2100) relative to the present time (2010-2020): (1) Ozone recovery (due to decreasing ozone-depleting substances and increasing greenhouse gases) would cause decreases in UVery, which will be highest (up to 40%) over Antarctica. Decreases would be small (less than 10%) outside the southern Polar Regions. A possible decline of solar activity during the 21(st) century

  18. An integrated assessment of climate change impacts for Athens- relevance to stakeholders and policy makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, C.; Hatzaki, M.; Kostopoulou, E.; Varotsos, K.

    2010-09-01

    Analysing climate change and its impact needs a production of relevant elements for policy making that can be very different from the parameters considered by climate experts. In the framework of EU project CIRCE, a more realistic approach to match stakeholders and policy-makers demands is attempted. For this reason, within CIRCE selected case studies have been chosen that will provide assessments that can be integrated in practical decision making. In this work, an integrated assessment of climate change impacts on several sectors for the urban site of Athens in Greece is presented. The Athens urban case study has been chosen since it provides excellent opportunities for using an integrated approach across multiple temporal and spatial scales and sectors. In the spatial dimension, work extends from the inner city boundaries to the surrounding mountains and forests. In the temporal dimension, research ranges from the current observed time period (using available meteorological and sector data) to future time periods using data from several climate change projections. In addition, a multi-sector approach to climate change impacts is adopted. Impacts sectors covered range from direct climate impacts on natural ecosystems (such as flash floods, air pollution and forest fire risk) to indirect impacts resulting from combined climate-social-economic linkages (such as energy demand, tourism and health). Discussion of impact sector risks and adaptation measures are also exploited. Case-study work on impact sector risk to climate change is of particular interest to relevant policy makers and stakeholders, communication with who is ensured through a series of briefing notes and information sheets and through regional workshops.

  19. Using Copernicus earth observation services to monitor climate change impacts and adaptations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Becker, Daniel; Zebisch, Marc; Sonnenschein, Ruth; Schönthaler, Konstanze; von Andrian-Werburg, Stefan

    2016-04-01

    In the last years, earth observation made a big leap towards an operational monitoring of the state of environment. Remote sensing provides for instance information on the dynamics, trends and anomalies of snow and glaciers, vegetation, soil moisture or water temperature. In particular, the European Copernicus initiative offers new opportunities through new satellites with a higher temporal and spatial resolution, operational services for environmental monitoring and an open data access policy. With the Copernicus climate change service and the ESA climate change initiative, specific earth observation programs are in place to address the impacts of climate change. However, such products and services are until now rarely picked up in the field of policy or decision making oriented climate impact or climate risk assessments. In this talk, we will present results of a study, which focus on the question, if and how remote sensing approaches could be integrated into operational monitoring activities of climate impacts and response measures on a national and subnational scale. We assessed all existing and planned Copernicus services regarding their relevance for climate impact monitoring by comparing them against the indication fields from an indicator system for climate impact and response monitoring in Germany, which has lately been developed in the framework of the German national adaptation strategy. For several climate impact or response indicators, an immediate integration of remote sensing data could be identified and been recommended. For these cases, we will show practical examples on the benefit of remote sensing data. For other indication fields, promising approaches were found, which need further development. We argue that remote sensing is a very valuable complement to the existing indicator schemes by contributing with spatial explicit, timely information but not always easy to integrate with classical approaches, which are oriented towards consistent long

  20. Projected climate change impacts and short term predictions on staple crops in Sub-Saharan Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mereu, V.; Spano, D.; Gallo, A.; Carboni, G.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) drives the economy of many African countries and it is mainly rain-fed agriculture used for subsistence. Increasing temperatures, changed precipitation patterns and more frequent droughts may lead to a substantial decrease of crop yields. The projected impacts of future climate change on agriculture are expected to be significant and extensive in the SSA due to the shortening of the growing seasons and the increasing of water-stress risk. Differences in Agro-Ecological Zones and geographical characteristics of SSA influence the diverse impacts of climate change, which can greatly differ across the continent and within countries. The vulnerability of African Countries to climate change is aggravated by the low adaptive capacity of the continent, due to the increasing of its population, the widespread poverty, and other social factors. In this contest, the assessment of climate change impact on agricultural sector has a particular interest to stakeholder and policy makers, in order to identify specific agricultural sectors and Agro-Ecological Zones that could be more vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions and to develop the most appropriate policies to cope with these threats. For these reasons, the evaluation of climate change impacts for key crops in SSA was made exploring climate uncertainty and focusing on short period monitoring, which is particularly useful for food security and risk management analysis. The DSSAT-CSM (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer - Cropping System Model) software, version 4.5 was used for the analysis. Crop simulation models included in DSSAT-CSM are tools that allow to simulate physiological process of crop growth, development and production, by combining genetic crop characteristics and environmental (soil and weather) conditions. For each selected crop, the models were used, after a parameterization phase, to evaluate climate change impacts on crop phenology and production

  1. The impact of climate change on water resources: Assessment at the scale of the Indian subcontinent

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Olsson, Jonas; Bosshard, Thomas; Sharma, Devesh; Sharma, Kc; Arheimer, Berit

    2015-04-01

    The large increase in the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases has led to the global climate change phenomenon which is expected to have a strong impact on water resources on local, regional and global scales. The Indian subcontinent is vulnerable to climate change since the region is characterized by a strong hydro-climatic gradient due to monsoon and the geographic features, and hence poses extraordinary challenges to understand, quantify and predict future availability in water resources. In here, the impact of climate change on the hydro-climatology of the subcontinent is investigated by comparing statistics of current and projected future fluxes resulting from three emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5). The use of different emission scenarios allows for the definition of uncertainty of future impacts. Climate projections from the CORDEX-South Asia framework have been bias-corrected using the DBS (Distribution Based Scaling) method and used to force the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) hydrological model to generate projections of evapotranspiration, runoff, soil moisture deficit, snow depth, and applied irrigation water to soil. In addition, we assess the changes on high and low flows from all river systems as well as the changes in the annual cycles. Overall, the high uncertainty in the climate projections is propagated in the hydrological impact model, and as a result the spatiotemporal distribution of change is subject to the climate projection. In general, results from all scenarios indicate a -20 to +50% change in long-term average precipitation and evapotranspiration, yet a higher change (-100 to +100%) in runoff. Analysis of annual cycles showed that climate change impacts vary between seasons whereas the effect is dependent on the region's hydro-climatic gradient. Future scenarios project a graduate increase in temperature from 1 up to 76°C on average, which further affects the need for irrigation and snow

  2. Impact of climate change on intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, J.

    2013-12-01

    Changes in climate may potentially alter extreme rainfall intensity in most regions. In order for government agencies and design engineers to incorporate potential future changes into assessment and design processes, tools for planning and design should be capable of considering non-stationary climate conditions. In this study, potential changes in intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves at a range of locations in the United States, which are often used for assessment of extreme rainfall events, are explored using climate model historic runs, reanalysis runs, and future climate projections. The concept of the adjustment factor, which represents the general ability of climate models in representing the reanalysis data that is a reasonable estimate of actual gridded historical climate at the model grid scale, is applied to investigate potential impacts of climate change on IDF curves. For most of the study regions, future climate projections suggest an increase in the intensity of extreme storms for a given return period and duration with strong regional variations. The results also reveal the dependence of the adjustment factor values on return period and storm durations as related to the characteristics of extreme rainfalls, as it varies significantly with region, storm duration, and return period. We illustrate that impacts of climate change on extreme hydrologic events are highly regional and thus such assessments should be performed for specific locations.

  3. Does Water Management Reduce uncertainty of Projected Climate Change Impacts on River Discharge?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pohle, I.; Koch, H.; Gaedeke, A.; Hinz, C.; Grünewald, U.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change impact studies are associated with error propagation and amplification of uncertainties through model chains. Water management, especially reservoir management, reduces discharge variability. In this study we investigated how water management influences uncertainty propagation of climate change scenarios. We applied a model ensemble of (i) the regional climate model STAR (STAR 0K: no further climate change, STAR 2K and 3K: increase of mean annual temperature by 2 K and 3 K resp.; each scenario is represented by 100 realizations), (ii) the hydrological models SWIM and EGMO, and (iii) the water management model WBalMo. The study was performed in the two neighbouring catchments of the Schwarze Elster River (Germany) and the Spree River (Germany and Czech Republic). These catchments have similar climate, topography and land use, but differ in their water management. The Spree River has a higher reservoir capacity, more withdrawals and discharges from water users and more water transfers. The projected natural runoff in both catchments is similar. Compared to STAR 0K, the natural runoff decreases remarkably in the other climate scenarios. The uncertainties related to the climate projection are propagated through the hydrological model. In the Schwarze Elster River catchment, these uncertainties are slightly increased by the water management model, whereas in the Spree River catchment, due to a higher reservoir capacity and more water transfers, interannual variability and uncertainty of managed discharge are strongly moderated by water management. The results of this study imply that generally, effective water management can reduce uncertainty related to climate change impacts on river discharge. Catchments with a high storage ratio are less vulnerable to changing climate conditions. This underlines the role of water management in coping with climate change impacts. Yet, due to decreasing reservoir volumes in drought periods, reservoir management alone

  4. Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

    2016-04-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent

  5. Health impacts of climate change and biosecurity in the Asian Pacific region.

    PubMed

    Sly, Peter D

    2011-01-01

    Our climate is changing as a result of human activity, and such changes have the potential to have a significant impact on human health. The basic requirements for health--clean air, safe drinking water, sufficient food and secure shelter--are all vulnerable to climate change. Low-income developing countries are especially vulnerable; no country, however, is totally immune. In Australia, we are already seeing evidence of the health effects of climate change with an increase in temperature-related food poisoning events and an increase in mosquito-borne infections, including Ross River virus and Dengue fever. In the Asian Pacific region the issues identified as most pressing vary from country to country, but a common theme is a lack of public understanding and education and lack of capacity for implementing mitigation strategies. Strategies addressing the health impacts of climate change must incorporate the principles of social justice and equity within the region.

  6. Impacts of climate change on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services: technical input to the 2013 National Climate Assessment

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Staudinger, Michelle D.; Grimm, Nancy B.; Staudt, Amanda; Carter, Shawn L.; Stuart, F. Stuart; Kareiva, Peter; Ruckelshaus, Mary; Stein, Bruce A.

    2012-01-01

    Ecosystems, and the biodiversity and services they support, are intrinsically dependent on climate. During the twentieth century, climate change has had documented impacts on ecological systems, and impacts are expected to increase as climate change continues and perhaps even accelerates. This technical input to the National Climate Assessment synthesizes our scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and what strategies might be employed to decrease current and future risks. Building on past assessments of how climate change and other stressors are affecting ecosystems in the United States and around the world, we approach the subject from several different perspectives. First, we review the observed and projected impacts on biodiversity, with a focus on genes, species, and assemblages of species. Next, we examine how climate change is affecting ecosystem structural elements—such as biomass, architecture, and heterogeneity—and functions—specifically, as related to the fluxes of energy and matter. People experience climate change impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems as changes in ecosystem services; people depend on ecosystems for resources that are harvested, their role in regulating the movement of materials and disturbances, and their recreational, cultural, and aesthetic value. Thus, we review newly emerging research to determine how human activities and a changing climate are likely to alter the delivery of these ecosystem services. This technical input also examines two cross-cutting topics. First, we recognize that climate change is happening against the backdrop of a wide range of other environmental and anthropogenic stressors, many of which have caused dramatic ecosystem degradation already. This broader range of stressors interacts with climate change, and complicates our abilities to predict and manage the impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and the services they support. The

  7. Development of new impact functions for global risk caused by climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miyazaki, C.

    2014-12-01

    The purpose of our study is to identify and quantify global-scale risks which can be caused by future climate change. In particular, we focus on the global-scale risks which have critical impacts to human environments. Use of impact functions is one of the common way to quantify global-scale risks. Output of impact function is climate impacts (e.g. economic damage by temperature increasing) and input can be global temperature increasing and/or socioeconomic condition (e.g. GDP). As the first step of study, we referred to AR5 WG II report (AR5, hereafter) and comprehensive inventories of climate change risks developed by Strategic R&D Area Project of the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (ICA-RUS project). Then we extracted information which can be used to develop impact function from them. By following SPM/AR5, we focused on 11 sectors and extracted quantitative description on climate impacts from the AR5 and paper/reports cited in AR5. As a result, we identified about 40 risk items to focus as global-scale risks by climate change. Using the collected information, we tentatively made impact function on sea level rise and so on. In addition, we also extracted the impact functions used in Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). The literature survey on IAM suggested the risk items considered in IAMs are limited. For instance, although FUND model provides detailed impact functions compared with most of other IAMs, its impact functions deal with only several sectors (e.g. agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, sea level rise, human health, energy demand and water resources). The survey on impact functions in IAMs also suggested impact function for abrupt climate change (so-called Tipping Element) is premature. Moreover, as example for quantifying health risk by our calculation, we also present the result on global-scale projection of the health burden attributable to childhood undernutrition (Ishida et al., 2014, ERL).

  8. A changing climate: impacts on human exposures to O3 using ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Predicting the impacts of changing climate on human exposure to air pollution requires future scenarios that account for changes in ambient pollutant concentrations, population sizes and distributions, and housing stocks. An integrated methodology to model changes in human exposures due to these impacts was developed by linking climate, air quality, land-use, and human exposure models. This methodology was then applied to characterize changes in predicted human exposures to O3 under multiple future scenarios. Regional climate projections for the U.S. were developed by downscaling global circulation model (GCM) scenarios for three of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC’s) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The regional climate results were in turn used to generate air quality (concentration) projections using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. For each of the climate change scenarios, future U.S. census-tract level population distributions from the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) model for four future scenarios based on the IPCC’s Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) storylines were used. These climate, air quality, and population projections were used as inputs to EPA’s Air Pollutants Exposure (APEX) model for 12 U.S. cities. Probability density functions show changes in the population distribution of 8 h maximum daily O3 exposur

  9. Health consequence scales for use in health impact assessments of climate change.

    PubMed

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery

    2014-09-16

    While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comparing health effects associated with climate change and applied within a HIA framework. This assists in setting priorities for adaptation plans to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. The scales presented in this paper were initially developed for a HIA of climate change in Perth in 2050, but they can be applied across spatial and temporal scales. The design is based on a health effects pyramid with health measures expressed in orders of magnitude and linked to baseline population and health data. The health consequence measures are combined with a measure of likelihood to determine the level of risk associated with each health potential health impact. In addition, a simple visual framework that can be used to collate, compare and communicate the level of health risks associated with climate change has been developed.

  10. Health Consequence Scales for Use in Health Impact Assessments of Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery

    2014-01-01

    While health impact assessment (HIA) has typically been applied to projects, plans or policies, it has significant potential with regard to strategic considerations of major health issues facing society such as climate change. Given the complexity of climate change, assessing health impacts presents new challenges that may require different approaches compared to traditional applications of HIA. This research focuses on the development of health consequence scales suited to assessing and comparing health effects associated with climate change and applied within a HIA framework. This assists in setting priorities for adaptation plans to minimize the public health impacts of climate change. The scales presented in this paper were initially developed for a HIA of climate change in Perth in 2050, but they can be applied across spatial and temporal scales. The design is based on a health effects pyramid with health measures expressed in orders of magnitude and linked to baseline population and health data. The health consequence measures are combined with a measure of likelihood to determine the level of risk associated with each health potential health impact. In addition, a simple visual framework that can be used to collate, compare and communicate the level of health risks associated with climate change has been developed. PMID:25229697

  11. Impacts of climate change on temperature, precipitation and hydrology in Finland - studies using bias corrected Regional Climate Model data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olsson, T.; Jakkila, J.; Veijalainen, N.; Backman, L.; Kaurola, J.; Vehviläinen, B.

    2015-07-01

    Assessment of climate change impacts on climate and hydrology on catchment scale requires reliable information about the average values and climate fluctuations of the past, present and future. Regional climate models (RCMs) used in impact studies often produce biased time series of meteorological variables. In this study bias correction (BC) of RCM temperature and precipitation for Finland is carried out using different versions of the distribution based scaling (DBS) method. The DBS-adjusted RCM data are used as input of a hydrological model to simulate changes in discharges of four study catchments in different parts of Finland. The annual mean discharges and seasonal variation simulated with the DBS-adjusted temperature and precipitation data are sufficiently close to observed discharges in the control period 1961-2000 and produce more realistic projections for mean annual and seasonal changes in discharges than the uncorrected RCM data. Furthermore, with most scenarios the DBS method used preserves the temperature and precipitation trends of the uncorrected RCM data during 1961-2100. However, if the biases in the mean or the standard deviation of the uncorrected temperatures are large, significant biases after DBS adjustment may remain or temperature trends may change, increasing the uncertainty of climate change projections. The DBS method influences especially the projected seasonal changes in discharges and the use of uncorrected data can produce unrealistic seasonal discharges and changes. The projected changes in annual mean discharges are moderate or small, but seasonal distribution of discharges will change significantly.

  12. Quantifying and Valuing Potential Climate Change Impacts on Coral Reefs in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wobus, C. W.; Lane, D.; Buddemeier, R. W.; Ready, R. C.; Shouse, K. C.; Martinich, J.

    2012-12-01

    Global climate change presents a two-pronged threat to coral reef ecosystems: increasing sea surface temperatures will increase the likelihood of episodic bleaching events, while increasing ocean carbon dioxide concentrations will change the carbonate chemistry that drives coral growth. Because coral reefs have important societal as well as ecological benefits, climate change mitigation policies that ameliorate these impacts may create substantial economic value. We present a model that evaluates both the ecological and the economic impacts of climate change on coral reefs in the United States. We use a coral reef mortality and bleaching model to project future coral reef declines under a range of climate change policy scenarios for south Florida, Puerto Rico and Hawaii. Using a benefits transfer approach, the outputs from the physical model are then used to quantify the economic impacts of these coral reef declines for each of these regions. We find that differing climate change trajectories create substantial changes in projected coral cover and value for Hawaii, but that the ecological and economic benefits of more stringent emissions scenarios are less clear for Florida and Puerto Rico. Overall, our results indicate that the effectiveness of climate change mitigation policies may be region-specific, but that these policies could result in a net increase of nearly $10 billion in economic value from coral reef-related recreational activities alone, over the 21st century.

  13. Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mondal, A.; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

  14. Climate Change Impacts on the Tree of Life: Changes in Phylogenetic Diversity Illustrated for Acropora Corals

    PubMed Central

    Faith, Daniel P.; Richards, Zoe T.

    2012-01-01

    The possible loss of whole branches from the tree of life is a dramatic, but under-studied, biological implication of climate change. The tree of life represents an evolutionary heritage providing both present and future benefits to humanity, often in unanticipated ways. Losses in this evolutionary (evo) life-support system represent losses in “evosystem” services, and are quantified using the phylogenetic diversity (PD) measure. High species-level biodiversity losses may or may not correspond to high PD losses. If climate change impacts are clumped on the phylogeny, then loss of deeper phylogenetic branches can mean disproportionately large PD loss for a given degree of species loss. Over time, successive species extinctions within a clade each may imply only a moderate loss of PD, until the last species within that clade goes extinct, and PD drops precipitously. Emerging methods of “phylogenetic risk analysis” address such phylogenetic tipping points by adjusting conservation priorities to better reflect risk of such worst-case losses. We have further developed and explored this approach for one of the most threatened taxonomic groups, corals. Based on a phylogenetic tree for the corals genus Acropora, we identify cases where worst-case PD losses may be avoided by designing risk-averse conservation priorities. We also propose spatial heterogeneity measures changes to assess possible changes in the geographic distribution of corals PD. PMID:24832524

  15. Climate change and potential impacts on bristol bay sockeye salmon populations

    EPA Science Inventory

    Scientific research has shown that climate change has already caused detectable changes to ecosystems throughout Alaska. As warming is predicted to continue, it is likely to lead to changes in marine and freshwater aquatic ecosystems and impact sockeye salmon populations in Brist...

  16. Adaptation strategies for health impacts of climate change in Western Australia: Application of a Health Impact Assessment framework

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery T.; Brown, Helen L.; Katscherian, Dianne

    2011-04-15

    Climate change is one of the greatest challenges facing the globe and there is substantial evidence that this will result in a number of health impacts, regardless of the level of greenhouse gas mitigation. It is therefore apparent that a combined approach of mitigation and adaptation will be required to protect public health. While the importance of mitigation is recognised, this project focused on the role of adaptation strategies in addressing the potential health impacts of climate change. The nature and magnitude of these health impacts will be determined by a number of parameters that are dependent upon the location. Firstly, climate change will vary between regions. Secondly, the characteristics of each region in terms of population and the ability to adapt to changes will greatly influence the extent of the health impacts that are experienced now and into the future. Effective adaptation measures therefore need to be developed with these differences in mind. A Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework was used to consider the implications of climate change on the health of the population of Western Australia (WA) and to develop a range of adaptive responses suited to WA. A broad range of stakeholders participated in the HIA process, providing informed input into developing an understanding of the potential health impacts and potential adaptation strategies from a diverse sector perspective. Potential health impacts were identified in relation to climate change predictions in WA in the year 2030. The risk associated with each of these impacts was assessed using a qualitative process that considered the consequences and the likelihood of the health impact occurring. Adaptations were then developed which could be used to mitigate the identified health impacts and provide responses which could be used by Government for future decision making. The periodic application of a HIA framework is seen as an ideal tool to develop appropriate adaptation strategies to

  17. Impact of climate change on crop yield and role of model for achieving food security.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Manoj

    2016-08-01

    In recent times, several studies around the globe indicate that climatic changes are likely to impact the food production and poses serious challenge to food security. In the face of climate change, agricultural systems need to adapt measures for not only increasing food supply catering to the growing population worldwide with changing dietary patterns but also to negate the negative environmental impacts on the earth. Crop simulation models are the primary tools available to assess the potential consequences of climate change on crop production and informative adaptive strategies in agriculture risk management. In consideration with the important issue, this is an attempt to provide a review on the relationship between climate change impacts and crop production. It also emphasizes the role of crop simulation models in achieving food security. Significant progress has been made in understanding the potential consequences of environment-related temperature and precipitation effect on agricultural production during the last half century. Increased CO2 fertilization has enhanced the potential impacts of climate change, but its feasibility is still in doubt and debates among researchers. To assess the potential consequences of climate change on agriculture, different crop simulation models have been developed, to provide informative strategies to avoid risks and understand the physical and biological processes. Furthermore, they can help in crop improvement programmes by identifying appropriate future crop management practises and recognizing the traits having the greatest impact on yield. Nonetheless, climate change assessment through model is subjected to a range of uncertainties. The prediction uncertainty can be reduced by using multimodel, incorporating crop modelling with plant physiology, biochemistry and gene-based modelling. For devloping new model, there is a need to generate and compile high-quality field data for model testing. Therefore, assessment of

  18. Development of spatial water resources vulnerability index considering climate change impacts.

    PubMed

    Jun, Kyung Soo; Chung, Eun-Sung; Sung, Jin-Young; Lee, Kil Seong

    2011-11-15

    This study developed a new framework to quantify spatial vulnerability for sustainable water resources management. Four hydrologic vulnerability indices--potential flood damage (PFDC), potential drought damage (PDDC), potential water quality deterioration (PWQDC), and watershed evaluation index (WEIC)--were modified to quantify flood damage, drought damage, water quality deterioration, and overall watershed risk considering the impact of climate change, respectively. The concept of sustainability in the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework was applied in selecting all appropriate indicators (criteria) of climate change impacts. In the examination of climate change, future meteorological data was obtained using CGCM3 (Canadian Global Coupled Model) and SDSM (Statistical Downscaling Model), and future stream run-off and water quality were simulated using HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program - Fortran). The four modified indices were then calculated using TOPSIS, a multi-attribute method of decision analysis. As a result, the ranking obtained can be changed in consideration of climate change impacts. This study represents a new attempt to quantify hydrologic vulnerability in a manner that takes into account both climate change impacts and the concept of sustainability.

  19. Sink or Swim: Adapting to the Hydrologic Impacts of Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleick, P. H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate changes lead to a wide range of societal and environmental impacts; indeed, strong evidence has accrued that such impacts are already occurring, as summarized by the newest National Climate Assessment and other analyses. Among the most important will be alterations in the hydrologic cycle, changes in water supply and demand, and impacts on existing water-related infrastructure. Because of the complexity of our water systems, adaptation responses will be equally complex. This problem has made it difficult for water managers and planners to develop and implement adaptation strategies. This talk will address three ways to think about water-related adaptation approaches to climate change: (1) strategies that are already being implemented to address population and economic changes without climate change; (2) whether these first-line strategies are appropriate for additional impacts that might result from climatic changes; and (3) new approaches that might be necessary for new, non-linear, or threshold impacts. An effort will also be made to differentiate between adaptation strategies that influence the hydrologic cycle directly (e.g., cloud seeding), those that influence supply management (e.g., construction of additional reservoirs or water-distribution systems), and those that affect water demand (e.g., removal of outdoor landscaping, installation of efficient irrigation systems).

  20. The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jerez, Sonia; Tobin, Isabelle; Vautard, Robert; Montávez, Juan Pedro; María López-Romero, Jose; Thais, Françoise; Bartok, Blanka; Bøssing Christensen, Ole; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Nikulin, Grigory; Kotlarski, Sven; van Meijgaard, Erik; Teichmann, Claas; Wild, Martin

    2016-04-01

    Ambitious climate change mitigation plans call for a significant increase in use of renewables, which could, however, make the supply system more vulnerable to climate variability and changes. Here we evaluate climate change impacts on solar photovoltaic (PV) power in Europe using the recent EURO-CORDEX ensemble of high-resolution climate projections together with a PV power production model and assuming a well-developed European PV power fleet. Results indicate that the alteration of solar PV supply by the end of this century compared to the estimations made under current climate conditions should be in the range [-14%;+2%], with the largest decreases in Northern countries. Temporal stability of power generation does not appear as strongly affected in future climate scenarios either, even showing a slight positive trend in Southern countries. Therefore, despite small decreases in production expected in some parts of Europe, climate change is unlikely to threaten the European PV sector. Reference: S. Jerez, I. Tobin, R. Vautard, J.P. Montávez, J.M. López-Romero, F. Thais, B. Bartok, O.B. Christensen, A. Colette, M. Déqué, G. Nikulin, S. Kotlarski, E. van Meijgaard, C. Teichmann and M. Wild (2015). The impact of climate change on photovoltaic power generation in Europe. Nature Communications, 6, 10014, doi: 10.1038/ncomms10014.

  1. Climate change impacts on main agricultural activities in the Oltenia Plain (Romania)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitrica, B.; Mateescu, E.; Dragota, C.; Busuioc, A.; Grigorescu, I.; Popovici, A.

    2012-04-01

    Understanding the key drivers of agriculture in relation to climate change as well as their interrelationship with land management decisions and policies, one may be able to project future agricultural productions under certain economic, environmental, and social scenarios in order to minimize their negative impacts. The paper is aiming to stress upon the importance of modelling the potential impact of climate change on crop production, particularly under the current conditions when natural resources and food supplies are shortening in many parts of the world. Under the given circumstances, in assessing the impact of climate change on agriculture in the Oltenia Plain, the authors used a simulation model CERES (Crop-Environment Resource Synthesis), developed as a predictive and deterministic model, used for basic and applied research on the effects of climate (thermal regime, water stress) and management (fertilization practices, irrigation) on the growth and yield of different crops. In assessing the impact of climate change on maize and autumn wheat crops two applications of CERES model were used: CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize overlapping two regional climatic scenarios for 2021-2050 and 2071-2100 periods. These models describe, based on daily data the basic biophysical processes which take place at the soil-plant-atmosphere interface as a response to the variability of different processes such as: photosynthesis, specific phonological phases, evapotranspiration, water dynamics in soil etc. Assessing the impact of climate change on agricultural productivity under the two regional climatic scenarios (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) will reveal their potential consequences on the main agricultural crops in the Oltenia Plain (autumn wheat and maize) depending on the interaction between local climatic conditions, the effect rising CO2 on photosynthesis and the genetical type of crops. Therefore, the autumn wheat benefits from the interaction between the rise of CO2 and air

  2. Impacts of climate change on surface water quality in relation to drinking water production.

    PubMed

    Delpla, I; Jung, A-V; Baures, E; Clement, M; Thomas, O

    2009-11-01

    Besides climate change impacts on water availability and hydrological risks, the consequences on water quality is just beginning to be studied. This review aims at proposing a synthesis of the most recent existing interdisciplinary literature on the topic. After a short presentation about the role of the main factors (warming and consequences of extreme events) explaining climate change effects on water quality, the focus will be on two main points. First, the impacts on water quality of resources (rivers and lakes) modifying parameters values (physico-chemical parameters, micropollutants and biological parameters) are considered. Then, the expected impacts on drinking water production and quality of supplied water are discussed. The main conclusion which can be drawn is that a degradation trend of drinking water quality in the context of climate change leads to an increase of at risk situations related to potential health impact.

  3. Impacts of Climate Change on Landscape Dynamics in the US Southeast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costanza, J. K.; Earnhardt, T.; Terando, A. J.; Hulcr, J.; McKerrow, A.

    2010-12-01

    Predicting the potential impacts of climate change on ecosystems is increasingly important for developing mitigation and adaptation strategies. In particular, climate change is likely to significantly affect disturbance dynamics, which have consequences for ecosystems. In forested ecosystems of the Southeast US, two important types of disturbances are wildfires and insect outbreaks. As part of the USGS’s Southeast Regional Assessment Project (SERAP), we examined those disturbances in the context of climate change through 2060 on the landscape of the Ichawaynochaway watershed on the coastal plain of Georgia. In the Ichawaynochaway, we asked: (1) How do wildfires and Southern Pine Beetle (SPB) outbreaks impact the landscape? and (2) How will climate change modify these impacts in the future? To project landscape dynamics, we used TELSA, a spatially-explicit model of ecological succession and disturbance. We measured changes in the landscape in terms of the vegetation state, which is a combination of successional stage (early-, mid-, or late-succession) and vegetation structure (open or closed canopy) for each ecosystem. We based wildfire and SPB outbreak probabilities on recent empirical data from the Ichawaynochaway area. To examine the effect of climate, for both wildfire and SPB outbreaks, we developed an empirical relationship between past climate and each of the disturbances. We projected those relationships to 2060 under current climate, as well as under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1FI emission scenario using an ensemble of downscaled Global Climate Model (GCM) output. Our results show that under current climate, wildfire activity and SPB outbreaks have less of an impact on the landscape than they likely will under climate change. In particular, these results suggest that open, mature stands of longleaf pine, a fire-dependent habitat that is less susceptible to SPB outbreaks, is likely to be favored under future change. In contrast

  4. Climate change impacts on dryland cropping systems in the central Great Plains, USA

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Agricultural systems models are essential tools to assess potential climate change (CC) impacts on crop production and help guide policy decisions. In this study, impacts of GCM projected CC on dryland crop rotations of wheat-fallow (WF), wheat-corn-fallow (WCF), and wheat-corn-millet (WCM) at Akro...

  5. Climate Change Course Impacts on the Individual, Their Future, and Interactions with Others

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yanascavage, Christina

    2012-01-01

    This report explores the impacts a university climate change course has on those enrolled in the course. The research quantitatively measures and compares opinions, attitudes, and knowledge among groups, then qualitatively explores the responses of the group to identify course impacts. The results show reasons people enroll in the course, how they…

  6. Simulation of climate change impacts on grain sorghum production grown under free air CO2 enrichment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Potential impacts of global climate change on crop productivity have drawn much attention in recent years. To investigate these impacts on grain sorghum [Sorghum bicolor (L.) Möench] productivity, we calibrated the CERES-Sorghum model in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT...

  7. The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

    2014-03-01

    This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

  8. Estimation of climate change impact on dead fuel moisture at local scale by using weather generators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pellizzaro, Grazia; Bortolu, Sara; Dubrovsky, Martin; Arca, Bachisio; Ventura, Andrea; Duce, Pierpaolo

    2015-04-01

    The moisture content of dead fuel is an important variable in fire ignition and fire propagation. Moisture exchange in dead materials is controlled by physical processes, and is clearly dependent on atmospheric changes. According to projections of future climate in Southern Europe, changes in temperature, precipitation and extreme events are expected. More prolonged drought seasons could influence fuel moisture content and, consequently, the number of days characterized by high ignition danger in Mediterranean ecosystems. The low resolution of the climate data provided by the general circulation models (GCMs) represents a limitation for evaluating climate change impacts at local scale. For this reason, the climate research community has called to develop appropriate downscaling techniques. One of the downscaling approaches, which transform the raw outputs from the climate models (GCMs or RCMs) into data with more realistic structure, is based on linking a stochastic weather generator with the climate model outputs. Weather generators linked to climate change scenarios can therefore be used to create synthetic weather series (air temperature and relative humidity, wind speed and precipitation) representing present and future climates at local scale. The main aims of this work are to identify useful tools to determine potential impacts of expected climate change on dead fuel status in Mediterranean shrubland and, in particular, to estimate the effect of climate changes on the number of days characterized by critical values of dead fuel moisture. Measurements of dead fuel moisture content (FMC) in Mediterranean shrubland were performed by using humidity sensors in North Western Sardinia (Italy) for six years. Meteorological variables were also recorded. Data were used to determine the accuracy of the Canadian Fine Fuels Moisture Code (FFM code) in modelling moisture dynamics of dead fuel in Mediterranean vegetation. Critical threshold values of FFM code for

  9. The implication of irrigation in climate change impact assessment: a European-wide study.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Gang; Webber, Heidi; Hoffmann, Holger; Wolf, Joost; Siebert, Stefan; Ewert, Frank

    2015-11-01

    This study evaluates the impacts of projected climate change on irrigation requirements and yields of six crops (winter wheat, winter barley, rapeseed, grain maize, potato, and sugar beet) in Europe. Furthermore, the uncertainty deriving from consideration of irrigation, CO2 effects on crop growth and transpiration, and different climate change scenarios in climate change impact assessments is quantified. Net irrigation requirement (NIR) and yields of the six crops were simulated for a baseline (1982-2006) and three SRES scenarios (B1, B2 and A1B, 2040-2064) under rainfed and irrigated conditions, using a process-based crop model, SIMPLACE . We found that projected climate change decreased NIR of the three winter crops in northern Europe (up to 81 mm), but increased NIR of all the six crops in the Mediterranean regions (up to 182 mm yr(-1) ). Climate change increased yields of the three winter crops and sugar beet in middle and northern regions (up to 36%), but decreased their yields in Mediterranean countries (up to 81%). Consideration of CO2 effects can alter the direction of change in NIR for irrigated crops in the south and of yields for C3 crops in central and northern Europe. Constraining the model to rainfed conditions for spring crops led to a negative bias in simulating climate change impacts on yields (up to 44%), which was proportional to the irrigation ratio of the simulation unit. Impacts on NIR and yields were generally consistent across the three SRES scenarios for the majority of regions in Europe. We conclude that due to the magnitude of irrigation and CO2 effects, they should both be considered in the simulation of climate change impacts on crop production and water availability, particularly for crops and regions with a high proportion of irrigated crop area.

  10. Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

    PubMed Central

    Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. PMID:25180515

  11. Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

    PubMed

    Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

    2014-01-01

    Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

  12. The Impact of Climate Change on Metal Transport in a Lowland Catchment.

    PubMed

    Wijngaard, René R; van der Perk, Marcel; van der Grift, Bas; de Nijs, Ton C M; Bierkens, Marc F P

    2017-01-01

    This study investigates the impact of future climate change on heavy metal (i.e., Cd and Zn) transport from soils to surface waters in a contaminated lowland catchment. The WALRUS hydrological model is employed in a semi-distributed manner to simulate current and future hydrological fluxes in the Dommel catchment in the Netherlands. The model is forced with climate change projections and the simulated fluxes are used as input to a metal transport model that simulates heavy metal concentrations and loads in quickflow and baseflow pathways. Metal transport is simulated under baseline climate ("2000-2010") and future climate ("2090-2099") conditions including scenarios for no climate change and climate change. The outcomes show an increase in Cd and Zn loads and the mean flux-weighted Cd and Zn concentrations in the discharged runoff, which is attributed to breakthrough of heavy metals from the soil system. Due to climate change, runoff enhances and leaching is accelerated, resulting in enhanced Cd and Zn loads. Mean flux-weighted concentrations in the discharged runoff increase during early summer and decrease during late summer and early autumn under the most extreme scenario of climate change. The results of this study provide improved understanding on the processes responsible for future changes in heavy metal contamination in lowland catchments.

  13. The last decade in ecological climate change impact research: where are we now?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaeschke, Anja; Bittner, Torsten; Jentsch, Anke; Beierkuhnlein, Carl

    2014-01-01

    Climate change is increasingly affecting organisms and ecosystems. The amount of research and the number of articles in this field is overwhelming. However, single studies necessarily consider limited aspects. Hence, there is an increasing need for structuring the research approaches and findings in climate change research in order to direct future action in an efficient way towards research gaps and areas of uncertainty. Here, we review the current state of knowledge accumulated over the last 10 years (2003-2012) about impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems. Almost 1,200 articles of the scientific literature listed in the ISI Web of Science are analysed. We explore the geographical distribution of knowledge gain, the studied taxonomic groups, ecosystems and environmental parameters as well as the applied methods. Several knowledge gaps arise. Most of the first authors of the analysed articles are residents of North America, Australia or Europe. A similar pattern is found for the study areas. Vascular plants and therewith forests are the most studied taxonomic group and ecosystem. The use of models to estimate potential impacts of climate change is well established in climate change impact research and is continuously developing. However, there is a lack of empirical data derived from experimental climate change simulations. In a rapidly evolving research landscape, this review aims at providing an overview of the current patterns of knowledge distribution and research demands arising from knowledge gaps and biases. Our results should help to identify future research needs and priorities.

  14. Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters

    PubMed Central

    Jones, Miranda C.; Dye, Stephen R.; Fernandes, Jose A.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Pinnegar, John K.; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W. L.

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina). PMID:23349829

  15. Predicting the impact of climate change on threatened species in UK waters.

    PubMed

    Jones, Miranda C; Dye, Stephen R; Fernandes, Jose A; Frölicher, Thomas L; Pinnegar, John K; Warren, Rachel; Cheung, William W L

    2013-01-01

    Global climate change is affecting the distribution of marine species and is thought to represent a threat to biodiversity. Previous studies project expansion of species range for some species and local extinction elsewhere under climate change. Such range shifts raise concern for species whose long-term persistence is already threatened by other human disturbances such as fishing. However, few studies have attempted to assess the effects of future climate change on threatened vertebrate marine species using a multi-model approach. There has also been a recent surge of interest in climate change impacts on protected areas. This study applies three species distribution models and two sets of climate model projections to explore the potential impacts of climate change on marine species by 2050. A set of species in the North Sea, including seven threatened and ten major commercial species were used as a case study. Changes in habitat suitability in selected candidate protected areas around the UK under future climatic scenarios were assessed for these species. Moreover, change in the degree of overlap between commercial and threatened species ranges was calculated as a proxy of the potential threat posed by overfishing through bycatch. The ensemble projections suggest northward shifts in species at an average rate of 27 km per decade, resulting in small average changes in range overlap between threatened and commercially exploited species. Furthermore, the adverse consequences of climate change on the habitat suitability of protected areas were projected to be small. Although the models show large variation in the predicted consequences of climate change, the multi-model approach helps identify the potential risk of increased exposure to human stressors of critically endangered species such as common skate (Dipturus batis) and angelshark (Squatina squatina).

  16. Climate change impacts on rainfall extremes and urban drainage: state-of-the-art review

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Willems, Patrick; Olsson, Jonas; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Beecham, Simon; Pathirana, Assela; Bülow Gregersen, Ida; Madsen, Henrik; Nguyen, Van-Thanh-Van

    2013-04-01

    Under the umbrella of the IWA/IAHR Joint Committee on Urban Drainage, the International Working Group on Urban Rainfall (IGUR) has reviewed existing methodologies for the analysis of long-term historical and future trends in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic climate change. Current practises have several limitations and pitfalls, which are important to be considered by trend or climate change impact modellers and users of trend/impact results. The review considers the following aspects: Analysis of long-term historical trends due to anthropogenic climate change: influence of data limitation, instrumental or environmental changes, interannual variations and longer term climate oscillations on trend testing results. Analysis of long-term future trends due to anthropogenic climate change: by complementing empirical historical data with the results from physically-based climate models, dynamic downscaling to the urban scale by means of Limited Area Models (LAMs) including explicitly small-scale cloud processes; validation of RCM/GCM results for local conditions accounting for natural variability, limited length of the available time series, difference in spatial scales, and influence of climate oscillations; statistical downscaling methods combined with bias correction; uncertainties associated with the climate forcing scenarios, the climate models, the initial states and the statistical downscaling step; uncertainties in the impact models (e.g. runoff peak flows, flood or surcharge frequencies, and CSO frequencies and volumes), including the impacts of more extreme conditions than considered during impact model calibration and validation. Implications for urban drainage infrastructure design and management: upgrading of the urban drainage system as part of a program of routine and scheduled replacement and renewal of aging infrastructure; how to account for the uncertainties; flexible and sustainable solutions

  17. Climate change and heat-related mortality in six cities Part 2: climate model evaluation and projected impacts from changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change.

    PubMed

    Gosling, Simon N; McGregor, Glenn R; Lowe, Jason A

    2009-01-01

    Previous assessments of the impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality use the "delta method" to create temperature projection time series that are applied to temperature-mortality models to estimate future mortality impacts. The delta method means that climate model bias in the modelled present does not influence the temperature projection time series and impacts. However, the delta method assumes that climate change will result only in a change in the mean temperature but there is evidence that there will also be changes in the variability of temperature with climate change. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the importance of considering changes in temperature variability with climate change in impacts assessments of future heat-related mortality. We investigate future heat-related mortality impacts in six cities (Boston, Budapest, Dallas, Lisbon, London and Sydney) by applying temperature projections from the UK Meteorological Office HadCM3 climate model to the temperature-mortality models constructed and validated in Part 1. We investigate the impacts for four cases based on various combinations of mean and variability changes in temperature with climate change. The results demonstrate that higher mortality is attributed to increases in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change rather than with the change in mean temperature alone. This has implications for interpreting existing impacts estimates that have used the delta method. We present a novel method for the creation of temperature projection time series that includes changes in the mean and variability of temperature with climate change and is not influenced by climate model bias in the modelled present. The method should be useful for future impacts assessments. Few studies consider the implications that the limitations of the climate model may have on the heat-related mortality impacts. Here, we demonstrate the importance of considering this by conducting an evaluation of

  18. Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Electric Power Generation in the Western Interconnection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartos, M. D.; Chester, M.

    2014-12-01

    In recent years, concerns have grown over the potential impacts of climate change on electricity generation. Water resources are integral to the production of thermoelectric and hydroelectric power, and droughts are expected to become more frequent, severe, and longer-lasting over the course of the twenty-first century. Many generation technologies—including gas turbines and solar cells—are also vulnerable to changes in local climatic conditions like ambient air temperature. As extreme weather becomes more common, methods are needed to assess the impacts of climate change on regional power systems. However, these methods must also account for (1) heterogeneity in generation technologies, and (2) local variation in climatic conditions. This study uses a physically-based modeling system to assess the vulnerability of electric power infrastructure in the Western Interconnection. Climatic and hydrologic parameters relevant to power generation are identified for six generation technologies. Downscaled climate forcings are then used as inputs to a physically-based modeling system, consisting of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrological model and the RBM one-dimensional stream temperature model. Impacts to generating capacity are estimated directly from changes in modeled climatic and hydrologic parameters, using functional relationships unique to each generating technology. A preliminary analysis of 1,302 power stations in the Western Interconnection reveals decreases in summertime generating capacity of 8-22%, with the largest impacts occurring at thermoelectric and hydroelectric facilities in the Pacific Northwest and California. Impacts to base-load thermoelectric plants are mitigated by recirculating cooling systems, which reduce the performance penalty of low flows and high water temperatures. Climate impacts on solar and wind capacity are relatively small, indicating that these energy sources may play a more prominent role as conventional generation

  19. Impacts of impervious cover, water withdrawals, and climate change on river flows in the conterminous US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caldwell, P. V.; Sun, G.; McNulty, S. G.; Cohen, E. C.; Moore Myers, J. A.

    2012-08-01

    Rivers are essential to aquatic ecosystem and societal sustainability, but are increasingly impacted by water withdrawals, land-use change, and climate change. The relative and cumulative effects of these stressors on continental river flows are relatively unknown. In this study, we used an integrated water balance and flow routing model to evaluate the impacts of impervious cover and water withdrawal on river flow across the conterminous US at the 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) watershed scale. We then estimated the impacts of projected change in withdrawals, impervious cover, and climate under the B1 "Low" and A2 "High" emission scenarios on river flows by 2060. Our results suggest that compared to no impervious cover, 2010 levels of impervious cover increased river flows by 9.9% on average with larger impacts in and downstream of major metropolitan areas. In contrast, compared to no water withdrawals, 2005 withdrawals decreased river flows by 1.4% on average with larger impacts in heavily irrigated arid regions of Western US. By 2060, impacts of climate change were predicted to overwhelm the potential gain in river flow due to future changes in impervious cover and add to the potential reduction in river flows from withdrawals, decreasing mean annual river flows from 2010 levels by 16% on average. However, increases in impervious cover by 2060 may offset the impact of climate change during the growing season in some watersheds. Large water withdrawals will aggravate the predicted impact of climate change on river flows, particularly in the Western US. Predicted ecohydrological impacts of land cover, water withdrawal, and climate change will likely include alteration of the terrestrial water balance, stream channel habitat, riparian and aquatic community structure in snow-dominated basins, and fish and mussel extirpations in heavily impacted watersheds. These changes may also require new infrastructure to support increasing anthropogenic demand for water

  20. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990–2080

    PubMed Central

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; N. Tubiello, Francesco; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-01-01

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological–economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5′×5′ latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change. PMID:16433094

  1. Socio-economic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Günther; Shah, Mahendra; Tubiello, Francesco N; van Velhuizen, Harrij

    2005-11-29

    A comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agro-ecosystems over this century is developed, up to 2080 and at a global level, albeit with significant regional detail. To this end an integrated ecological-economic modelling framework is employed, encompassing climate scenarios, agro-ecological zoning information, socio-economic drivers, as well as world food trade dynamics. Specifically, global simulations are performed using the FAO/IIASA agro-ecological zone model, in conjunction with IIASAs global food system model, using climate variables from five different general circulation models, under four different socio-economic scenarios from the intergovernmental panel on climate change. First, impacts of different scenarios of climate change on bio-physical soil and crop growth determinants of yield are evaluated on a 5' X 5' latitude/longitude global grid; second, the extent of potential agricultural land and related potential crop production is computed. The detailed bio-physical results are then fed into an economic analysis, to assess how climate impacts may interact with alternative development pathways, and key trends expected over this century for food demand and production, and trade, as well as key composite indices such as risk of hunger and malnutrition, are computed. This modelling approach connects the relevant bio-physical and socio-economic variables within a unified and coherent framework to produce a global assessment of food production and security under climate change. The results from the study suggest that critical impact asymmetries due to both climate and socio-economic structures may deepen current production and consumption gaps between developed and developing world; it is suggested that adaptation of agricultural techniques will be central to limit potential damages under climate change.

  2. Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary impact winter superimposed on long-term climate changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vellekoop, J.; Smit, J.; Sluijs, A.; Brinkhuis, H.; Esmeray-Senlet, S.; van de Schootbrugge, B.; Browning, J. V.; Miller, K. G.; Sinninghe Damsté, , J.

    2014-12-01

    It has become widely acknowledged that the Cretaceous - Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary mass extinction (~66Ma) is related to the environmental consequences of an impact of a large extraterrestrial body. This impact likely invoked exceptionally rapid and profound global climate change, which occurred superimposed on ongoing, long-term environmental changes. The interplay between impact-related and long-term environmental changes is still poorly documented. In a recent study, we showed that a TEX86 based Sea Surface Temperature (SST) K-Pg record from Brazos River (USA) indeed shows evidence for rapid short-term cooling following the K-Pg impact. This confirmed for the first time the hypothesis of a so-called 'impact winter' invoked by dust and aerosols produced by the impact, blocking incoming solar radiation. This short-lived cold phase has so far not been confirmed by other studies. To verify the record from Brazos River and to reveal ongoing, long-term climate change, we performed a high resolution marine palynological and organic geochemical study on four stratigraphically expanded cores from the New Jersey Shelf, eastern USA, spanning the K-Pg boundary, using the TEX86 sea surface temperature (SST) proxy. Indeed, our new composite record confirms the brief cooler episode immediately following the K-Pg impact. Here we present these impact-related sea surface temperature changes in the context of the long term climate changes across the K-Pg boundary interval.

  3. Prerequisites for understanding climate-change impacts on northern prairie wetlands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anteau, Michael J.; Wiltermuth, Mark T.; Post van der Burg, Max; Pearse, Aaron T.

    2016-01-01

    The Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) contains ecosystems that are typified by an extensive matrix of grasslands and depressional wetlands, which provide numerous ecosystem services. Over the past 150 years the PPR has experienced numerous landscape modifications resulting in agricultural conversion of 75–99 % of native prairie uplands and drainage of 50–90 % of wetlands. There is concern over how and where conservation dollars should be spent within the PPR to protect and restore wetland basins to support waterbird populations that will be robust to a changing climate. However, while hydrological impacts of landscape modifications appear substantial, they are still poorly understood. Previous modeling efforts addressing impacts of climate change on PPR wetlands have yet to fully incorporate interacting or potentially overshadowing impacts of landscape modification. We outlined several information needs for building more informative models to predict climate change effects on PPR wetlands. We reviewed how landscape modification influences wetland hydrology and present a conceptual model to describe how modified wetlands might respond to climate variability. We note that current climate projections do not incorporate cyclical variability in climate between wet and dry periods even though such dynamics have shaped the hydrology and ecology of PPR wetlands. We conclude that there are at least three prerequisite steps to making meaningful predictions about effects of climate change on PPR wetlands. Those evident to us are: 1) an understanding of how physical and watershed characteristics of wetland basins of similar hydroperiods vary across temperature and moisture gradients; 2) a mechanistic understanding of how wetlands respond to climate across a gradient of anthropogenic modifications; and 3) improved climate projections for the PPR that can meaningfully represent potential changes in climate variability including intensity and duration of wet and dry periods. Once

  4. Climate change trend in the tropical and Caribbean regions and its hydrological impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Setegn, S. G.; Melesse, A. M.

    2010-12-01

    Climate variability and climate change pose significant economic and environmental risks worldwide. There are limited studies in the Caribbean islands in terms of trends in climate change and its impact on hydrology and environmental problems. The study focused in Caribbean watersheds of Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, Jamaica and south Florida. Drought, heavy rainfall, high winds, and flooding cause losses to the agricultural and natural resources sectors locally in Florida and in the Caribbean islands. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature in the regions for three seasons (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) were analyzed using outputs from fifteen global climate models (GCMs). Comparison of projected changes in precipitation and temperature across different models for the three future seasons was carried out to get an indication of the consistency of the projected changes in the region. Different downscaling methods were used to downscale the large scale GCM into watershed level climate data. We interpret the different aspects of the hydrological response to imply that changes in runoff and other hydrological variables in the region could be significant, even though the GCMs do not agree on the direction of the change. This implies that climate change may well impact on the surface and ground water resources of the region.

  5. Uncertainties in assessing climate change impacts on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2013-04-01

    There is substantial evidence in historical and recent observations that the Mediterranean and neighboring regions are especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Numerous climate projections, stemming from ensembles of global and regional climate models, agree on severe changes in the climate forcing which are likely to exacerbate subsequent ecological, economic and social impacts. Many of these causal connections are closely linked to the general expectation that water availability will decline in the already water-stressed basins of Africa, the Mediterranean region and the Near East, even though considerable regional variances must be expected. Consequently, climate change impacts on water resources are raising concerns regarding their possible management and security implications. Decreasing access to water resources and other related factors could be a cause or a 'multiplier' of tensions within and between countries. Whether security threats arise from climate impacts or options for cooperation evolve does not depend only on the severity of the impacts themselves, but on social, economic, and institutional vulnerabilities or resilience as well as factors that influence local, national and international relations. However, an assessment of vulnerability and risks hinges on natural, socio-economic, and political conditions and responses, all of which are uncertain. Multidisciplinary research is needed to tackle the multi-facet complexity of climate change impacts on water resources in the Mediterranean and neighboring countries. This is particularly true in a region of overall data scarcity and poor data management and exchange structures. The current potential to develop appropriate regional adaptation measures towards climate change impacts suffers heavily from large uncertainties. These spread along a long chain of components, starting from the definition of emission scenarios to global and regional climate modeling to impact models and a

  6. Climate change impacts on the water balance of coastal and montane rainforests in northern Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wallace, Jim; McJannet, Dave

    2012-12-01

    SummaryHow the water balance of coastal and montane rainforests in northern Queensland could change in response to climate change was examined using physically based models of interception and transpiration along with long term weather records. Future rainfall and temperature changes were based on the most recent climate modelling for the region and were assumed to fall within the range ±20% for rainfall with a temperature increase of 1-3 K. Climate change will affect the water balance of Australian rainforests primarily via rainfall changes rather than temperature. Any given change in rainfall produces a greater change in downstream runoff, the amplification ranging from 1.1 to 1.5 in the wet season to a factor of 12 in the dry season. Changes in wet season rainfall (80% of the annual total) dominate the total annual amount of water released for downstream flow, but dry season rainfall (20% of the annual total) changes are also very important as they affect onset and the duration of the period when there is no runoff. This period is currently ˜110 days and this would change by ±30 days under the above climate scenarios. There are also potential in situ impacts of climate change that affect how long the rainforest canopy is wet, which may have important implications for the epiphytes and mosses that depend on these wet canopy conditions. Similarly there may be significant impacts on downstream freshwater species whose life cycles are adapted to the current dry season flow regime.

  7. Using Impact-Relevant Sensitivities to Efficiently Evaluate and Select Climate Change Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vano, J. A.; Kim, J. B.; Rupp, D. E.; Mote, P.

    2014-12-01

    We outline an efficient approach to help researchers and natural resource managers more effectively use global climate model information in their long-term planning. The approach provides an estimate of the magnitude of change of a particular impact (e.g., summertime streamflow) from a large ensemble of climate change projections prior to detailed analysis. These estimates provide both qualitative information as an end unto itself (e.g., the distribution of future changes between emissions scenarios for the specific impact) and a judicious, defensible evaluation structure that can be used to qualitatively select a sub-set of climate models for further analysis. More specifically, the evaluation identifies global climate model scenarios that both (1) span the range of possible futures for the variable/s most important to the impact under investigation, and (2) come from global climate models that adequately simulate historical climate, providing plausible results for the future climate in the region of interest. To identify how an ecosystem process responds to projected future changes, we methodically sample, using a simple sensitivity analysis, how an impact variable (e.g., streamflow magnitude, vegetation carbon) responds locally to projected regional temperature and precipitation changes. We demonstrate our technique over the Pacific Northwest, focusing on two types of impacts each in three distinct geographic settings: (a) changes in streamflow magnitudes in critical seasons for water management in the Willamette, Yakima, and Upper Columbia River basins; and (b) changes in annual vegetation carbon in the Oregon and Washington Coast Ranges, Western Cascades, and Columbia Basin ecoregions.

  8. Impacts of climate change on prioritizing conservation areas of hydrological ecosystem services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lien, Wan Yu; Lin, Yu Pin

    2015-04-01

    Ecosystem services (ESs) including hydrological services play important roles in our daily life and provide a lot of benefits for human beings from ecological systems. The systems and their services may be threatened by climate change from global to local scales. We herein developed a systematic approach to assess the impacts of climate change on the hydrological ecosystem services, such as water yield, nutrient (nitrogen and phosphorous) retention, and soil retention in a watershed in Northern Taiwan. We first used an ecosystem service evaluation model, InVEST, to estimate the amount and spatial patterns of annual and monthly hydrological ecosystem services under historical weather data, and different climate change scenarios based on five GMSs. The monthly and annual spatiotemporal variations of the ESs were analyzed in this study. Finally, the multiple estimated ESs were considered as the protection conservation targets and regarded as the input data of the systematic conservation planning software, Zonation, to systematically prioritize reserve areas of the ESs under the climate change scenarios. The ES estimation results indicated that the increasing rainfall in wet season leads to the higher water yield and results in the higher sediment and nutrient export indirectly. The Zonation successfully fielded conservation priorities of the ESs. The conservation priorities of the ESs significantly varied spatially and monthly under the climate change scenarios. The ESs results also indicated that the areas where ESs values and conservation priorities with low resilience under climate change should be considered as high priority protected area to ensure the hydrological services in future. Our proposed approach is a novel systematic approach which can be applied to assess impacts of climate change on spatiotemporal variations of ESs as well as prioritize protected area of the ESs under various climate change scenarios. Keyword: climate change, ecosystem service

  9. Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Ozone and Intercontinental Ozone Pollution: A Multi-Model Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Doherty, R. M.; Wild, O.; Shindell, D. T.; Zeng, G.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Collins, W. J.; Fiore, A. M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Dentener, F. J.; Schultz, M. G.; Hess, P.; Derwent, R. G.; Keating, T. J.

    2013-01-01

    The impact of climate change between 2000 and 2095 SRES A2 climates on surface ozone (O)3 and on O3 source-receptor (S-R) relationships is quantified using three coupled climate-chemistry models (CCMs). The CCMs exhibit considerable variability in the spatial extent and location of surface O3 increases that occur within parts of high NOx emission source regions (up to 6 ppbv in the annual average and up to 14 ppbv in the season of maximum O3). In these source regions, all three CCMs show a positive relationship between surface O3 change and temperature change. Sensitivity simulations show that a combination of three individual chemical processes-(i) enhanced PAN decomposition, (ii) higher water vapor concentrations, and (iii) enhanced isoprene emission-largely reproduces the global spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 response due to climate change (R2 = 0.52). Changes in climate are found to exert a stronger control on the annual-mean surface O3 response through changes in climate-sensitive O3 chemistry than through changes in transport as evaluated from idealized CO-like tracer concentrations. All three CCMs exhibit a similar spatial pattern of annual-mean surface O3 change to 20% regional O3 precursor emission reductions under future climate compared to the same emission reductions applied under present-day climate. The surface O3 response to emission reductions is larger over the source region and smaller downwind in the future than under present-day conditions. All three CCMs show areas within Europe where regional emission reductions larger than 20% are required to compensate climate change impacts on annual-mean surface O3.

  10. Physical Impacts of Climate Change on the Western US Electricity System: A Scoping Study

    SciTech Connect

    Coughlin, Katie; Goldman, Charles

    2008-12-01

    This paper presents an exploratory study of the possible physical impacts of climate change on the electric power system, and how these impacts could be incorporated into resource planning in the Western United States. While many aspects of climate change and energy have been discussed in the literature, there has not yet been a systematic review of the relationship between specific physical effects and the quantitative analyses that are commonly used in planning studies. The core of the problem is to understand how the electric system is vulnerable to physical weather risk, and how to make use of information from climate models to characterize the way these risks may evolve over time, including a treatment of uncertainty. In this paper, to provide the necessary technical background in climate science, we present an overview of the basic physics of climate and explain some of the methodologies used in climate modeling studies, particularly the importance of emissions scenarios. We also provide a brief survey of recent climate-related studies relevant to electric system planning in the Western US. To define the institutional context, we discuss the core elements of the resource and reliability planning processes used currently by utilities and by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council. To illustrate more precisely how climate-related risk could be incorporated into modeling exercises, we discuss three idealized examples. Overall, we argue that existing methods of analysis can and should be extended to encompass the uncertainties related to future climate. While the focus here is on risk related to physical impacts, the same principles apply to a consideration of how future climate change policy decisions might impact the design and functioning of the electric grid. We conclude with some suggestions and recommendations on how to begin developing this approach within the existing electric system planning framework for the West.

  11. Coping with climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Prato, Tony; Fagre, Daniel B.

    2006-01-01

    Climate is not the only factor in the deterioration of natural systems.We are making big changes to the landscape, altering land use and land cover in major ways. These changes combined present a challenge to environmental management. Adaptive management is a scientific approach to managing the adverse impacts of climate and landscape change.

  12. Global Potential for Hydro-generated Electricity and Climate Change Impact

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leon, C.; Calvin, K. V.; Thomson, A. M.; Li, H. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Hydropower is a dominant renewable energy source at the global level, accounting for more than 15% of the world's total power supply. It is also very vulnerable to climate change. Improved understanding of climate change impact on hydropower can help develop adaptation measures to increase the resilience of energy system. In this study, we developed a comprehensive estimate of global hydropower potential using runoff and stream flow data derived from a global hydrologic model with a river routing sub-model, along with turbine technology performance, cost assumptions, and environmental consideration (Figure 1). We find that hydropower has the potential to supply a significant portion of the world energy needs, although this potential varies substantially by regions. Resources in a number of countries exceed by multiple folds the total current demand for electricity, e.g., Russia and Indonesia. A sensitivit