Implications of climate change for economic development in northern Canada: energy, resource, and transportation sectors.

PubMed

Prowse, Terry D; Furgal, Chris; Chouinard, Rebecca; Melling, Humfrey; Milburn, David; Smith, Sharon L

2009-07-01

Northern Canada is projected to experience major changes to its climate, which will have major implications for northern economic development. Some of these, such as mining and oil and gas development, have experienced rapid expansion in recent years and are likely to expand further, partly as the result of indirect effects of changing climate. This article reviews how a changing climate will affect several economic sectors including the hydroelectric, oil and gas, and mining industries as well as infrastructure and transportation, both marine and freshwater. Of particular importance to all sectors are projected changes in the cryosphere, which will create both problems and opportunities. Potential adaptation strategies that could be used to minimize the negative impacts created by a climate change are also reviewed.

Executive summary: Climate change in the northwest: Implications for our landscapes, waters, and communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dalton, Meghan M.; Bethel, Jeffrey; Capalbo, Susan M.; Cuhaciyan, J.E.; Eigenbrode, Sanford D.; Glick, Patty; Houston, Laurie L.; Littell, Jeremy S.; Lynn, Kathy; Mote, Philip W.; Raymondi, Rick R.; Reeder, W. Spencer; Shafer, Sarah L.; Snover, Amy K.

2013-01-01

Climate Change in the Northwest: Implications for Our Landscapes, Waters, and Communities is aimed at assessing the state of knowledge about key climate impacts and consequences to various sectors and communities in the northwest United States. It draws on a wealth of peer-reviewed literature, earlier state-level assessment reports conducted for Washington (2009) and Oregon (2010), as well as a risk-framing workshop. As an assessment, it aims to be representative (though not exhaustive) of the key climate change issues as reflected in the growing body of Northwest climate change science, impacts, and adaptation literature now available. This report will serve as an updated resource for scientists, stakeholders, decision makers, students, and community members interested in understanding and preparing for climate change impacts on Oregon, Washington, and Idaho. This more detailed, foundational report is intended to support the key findings presented in the Northwest chapter of the Third National Climate Assessment.

Climate Change Impacts on the Built Environment in the United States and Implications for Sustainability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Quattrochi, Dale A.

2012-01-01

As an integral part of the National Climate Assessment (NCA), technical assessment reports for 13 regions in the U.S. that describe the scientific rationale to support climate change impacts within the purview of these regions, and provide adaptation or mitigation measures in response to these impacts. These technical assessments focus on climate change impacts on sectors that are important environmental, biophysical, and social and economic aspects of sustainability within the U.S.: Climate change science, Ecosystems and biodiversity, Water resources, Human health, Energy supply and use, Water/energy/land use, Transportation, Urban/infrastructure/vulnerability, Agriculture, Impacts of climate change on tribal/indigenous and native lands and resources, Forestry, Land use/land cover change, Rural communities development, and Impacts on biogeochemical cycles, with implications for ecosystems and biodiversity. There is a critical and timely need for the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies in response to climate change by the policy and decision making communities, to insure resiliency and sustainability of the built environment in the future.

U.S. Navy Climate Change Roadmap

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-04-01

Climate change is a national security challenge with strategic implications for the Navy. Climate change will lead to increased tensions in nations...with weak economies and political institutions. While climate change alone is not likely to lead to future conflict, it may be a contributing factor... Climate change is affecting, and will continue to affect, U.S. military installations and access to natural resources worldwide. It will affect the

A conceptual model of plant responses to climate with implications for monitoring ecosystem change

Treesearch

C. David Bertelsen

2013-01-01

Climate change is affecting natural systems on a global scale and is particularly rapid in the Southwest. It is important to identify impacts of a changing climate before ecosystems become unstable. Recognizing plant responses to climate change requires knowledge of both species present and plant responses to variable climatic conditions. A conceptual model derived...

Impacts of climate change on indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals from agriculture.

PubMed

Boxall, Alistair B A; Hardy, Anthony; Beulke, Sabine; Boucard, Tatiana; Burgin, Laura; Falloon, Peter D; Haygarth, Philip M; Hutchinson, Thomas; Kovats, R Sari; Leonardi, Giovanni; Levy, Leonard S; Nichols, Gordon; Parsons, Simon A; Potts, Laura; Stone, David; Topp, Edward; Turley, David B; Walsh, Kerry; Wellington, Elizabeth M H; Williams, Richard J

2009-04-01

Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes.

Southern Foresters' Perceptions of Climate Change: Implications for Educational Program Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boby, Leslie; Hubbard, William; Megalos, Mark; Morris, Hilary L. C.

2016-01-01

An understanding of foresters' perceptions of climate change is important for developing effective educational programs on adaptive forest management. We surveyed 1,398 foresters in the southern United States regarding their perceptions of climate change, observations and concerns about climatic and forest conditions, and knowledge of and interest…

An Examination of Climate Scientists' Participation in Education: Implications for Supporting the Teaching and Learning of Socially Controversial Science

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, Elizabeth M.

2012-01-01

Preparing a generation of citizens to respond to the impacts of climate change will require collaborative interactions between natural scientists, learning scientists, educators and learners. Promoting effective involvement of scientists in climate change education is especially important as climate change science and climate impacts are…

Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment Programs and Approaches to Account for Effects (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment Programs and Approaches to Account for Effects. This report uses biological data collected by four states in wadeable rivers and streams to examine the components ...

Forest environmental investments and implications for climate change mitigation.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Lucas S. Bair

2006-01-01

Forest environmental conditions are affected by climate change, but investments in forest environmental quality can be used as part of the climate change mitigation strategy. A key question involving the potential use of forests to store more carbon as part of climate change mitigation is the impact of forest investments on the timing and quantity of forest volumes...

Implication of global climate change on the distribution and activity of Phytophthora ramorum

Treesearch

Robert C. Venette

2009-01-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and activity of several forest pathogens. Boland et al. (2004) suggested that climate change might affect pathogen establishment, rate of disease progress, and the duration of...

Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.

PubMed

Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man

2010-09-01

This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

Floods in a changing climate

Treesearch

Theresa K. Andersen; Marshall J. Shepherd

2013-01-01

Atmospheric warming and associated hydrological changes have implications for regional flood intensity and frequency. Climate models and hydrological models have the ability to integrate various contributing factors and assess potential changes to hydrology at global to local scales through the century. This survey of floods in a changing climate reviews flood...

National Security and Global Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-01-01

The uncertainty, confusion, and speculation about the causes, effects, and implications of global climate change (GCC) often paralyze serious...against scientific indications of global climate change , but to consider how it would pose challenges to national security, explore options for facing...generals and admirals, released a report concluding that projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national security. This article

Social representations of climate change in Swedish lay focus groups: local or distant, gradual or catastrophic?

PubMed

Wibeck, Victoria

2014-02-01

This paper explores social representations of climate change, investigating how climate change is discussed by Swedish laypeople interacting in focus group interviews. The analysis focuses on prototypical examples and metaphors, which were key devices for objectifying climate change representations. The paper analyzes how the interaction of focus group participants with other speakers, ideas, arguments, and broader social representations shaped their representations of climate change. Climate change was understood as a global but distant issue with severe consequences. There was a dynamic tension between representations of climate change as a gradual vs. unpredictable process. Implications for climate change communication are discussed.

Will Global Climate Change Alter Fundamental Human Immune Reactivity: Implications for Child Health?

PubMed

Swaminathan, Ashwin; Lucas, Robyn M; Harley, David; McMichael, Anthony J

2014-11-11

The human immune system is an interface across which many climate change sensitive exposures can affect health outcomes. Gaining an understanding of the range of potential effects that climate change could have on immune function will be of considerable importance, particularly for child health, but has, as yet, received minimal research attention. We postulate several mechanisms whereby climate change sensitive exposures and conditions will subtly impair aspects of the human immune response, thereby altering the distribution of vulnerability within populations-particularly for children-to infection and disease. Key climate change-sensitive pathways include under-nutrition, psychological stress and exposure to ambient ultraviolet radiation, with effects on susceptibility to infection, allergy and autoimmune diseases. Other climate change sensitive exposures may also be important and interact, either additively or synergistically, to alter health risks. Conducting directed research in this area is imperative as the potential public health implications of climate change-induced weakening of the immune system at both individual and population levels are profound. This is particularly relevant for the already vulnerable children of the developing world, who will bear a disproportionate burden of future adverse environmental and geopolitical consequences of climate change.

Impacts of Climate Change on Indirect Human Exposure to Pathogens and Chemicals from Agriculture

PubMed Central

Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Hardy, Anthony; Beulke, Sabine; Boucard, Tatiana; Burgin, Laura; Falloon, Peter D.; Haygarth, Philip M.; Hutchinson, Thomas; Kovats, R. Sari; Leonardi, Giovanni; Levy, Leonard S.; Nichols, Gordon; Parsons, Simon A.; Potts, Laura; Stone, David; Topp, Edward; Turley, David B.; Walsh, Kerry; Wellington, Elizabeth M.H.; Williams, Richard J.

2009-01-01

Objective Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. Data sources In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. Data synthesis We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Conclusions Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes. PMID:19440487

The Supreme Court’s Climate Change Decision: Massachusetts v. EPA

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-18

On April 2, 2007, the Supreme Court handed down Massachusetts v. EPA, its first pronouncement on climate change . By 5-4, the Court held the following...emissions from new motor vehicles on the basis of their possible climate change impacts, and (3) Section 202 does not authorize EPA to inject policy... climate change science is so uncertain as to preclude making a finding either way. The decision also has implications for other climate - change -related

Climate science: Misconceptions of global catastrophe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rocklöv, Joacim

2016-04-01

American attitudes to changing weather, and therefore to climate change, have been analysed on the basis of US migration patterns since the 1970s. The findings have implications for the success of global climate policies. See Letter p.357

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

Treesearch

Stephanie K. Moore; Vera L. Trainer; Nathan J. Mantua; Micaela S. Parker; Edward A. Laws; Lorraine C. Backer; Lora E. Fleming

2008-01-01

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes...

The World Grain Economy and Climate Change to the Year 2000: Implications for Policy

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-01-01

THE WORLD GRAIN ECONOMY AND CUMATE CHANGE TO THE YEAR 2000: IMPUCATIONS FOR POUCY REPORT ON THE FINAL PHASE OF A CLIMATE IMPACT ASSESSMENT CONDUCTED...MODEL...................................... 37 APPENDIX B-A SUMMARY OF CROP YIELDS AND CLIMATE CHANGE TOTHE YR00............33 CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES...114. PROJECTED BASE 2000 YIELDS .................. 1S LIST OF TABLES 1. CLIMATE PARAMETERS BY LATITUDINAL ZONES .. S 2. SOURCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE

Enhanced sediment delivery in a changing climate in semi-arid mountain basins: Implications for water resource management and aquatic habitat in the northern Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Jaime R. Goode; Charles H. Luce; John M. Buffington

2012-01-01

The delivery and transport of sediment through mountain rivers affects aquatic habitat and water resource infrastructure. While climate change is widely expected to produce significant changes in hydrology and stream temperature, the effects of climate change on sediment yield have received less attention. In the northern Rocky Mountains, we expect climate change to...

The neurobiology of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Donnell, Sean

2018-02-01

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

The neurobiology of climate change.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Sean

2018-01-06

Directional climate change (global warming) is causing rapid alterations in animals' environments. Because the nervous system is at the forefront of animals' interactions with the environment, the neurobiological implications of climate change are central to understanding how individuals, and ultimately populations, will respond to global warming. Evidence is accumulating for individual level, mechanistic effects of climate change on nervous system development and performance. Climate change can also alter sensory stimuli, changing the effectiveness of sensory and cognitive systems for achieving biological fitness. At the population level, natural selection forces stemming from directional climate change may drive rapid evolutionary change in nervous system structure and function.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-01

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Climate change: potential implications for Ireland's biodiversity.

PubMed

Donnelly, Alison

2018-03-12

A national biodiversity and climate change adaptation plan is being developed for Ireland by the Department of Communications, Climate Action, and Environment. In order to inform such a plan, it was necessary to review and synthesize some of the recent literature pertaining to the impact of climate change on biodiversity in Ireland. Published research on this topic fell within three broad categories: (i) changes in the timing of life-cycle events (phenology) of plants, birds, and insects; (ii) changes in the geographic range of some bird species; and (iii) changes in the suitable climatic zones of key habitats and species. The synthesis revealed evidence of (i) a trend towards earlier spring activity of plants, birds, and insects which may result in a change in ecosystem function; (ii) an increase in the number of bird species; and (iii) both increases and decreases in the suitable climatic area of key habitats and species, all of which are expected to impact Ireland's future biodiversity. This process identified data gaps and limitations in available information both of which could be used to inform a focused research strategy. In addition, it raises awareness of the potential implications of climate change for biodiversity in Ireland and elsewhere and demonstrates the need for biodiversity conservation plans to factor climate change into future designs.

Trends and Implications of Climate Change for National and International Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

Timothy Gallaudet Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy Navy’s Climate Change Task Force Dr. Sherri Goodman, Dr. Ralph Espach and Mr. Peter...Duren Jet Propulsion Laboratory Dr. Diane Evans Jet Propulsion Laboratory CAPT Tim Gallaudet US Navy Task Force on Climate Change Mr. David Goldwyn

Implications of Climate Change for Children in Developing Countries

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanna, Rema; Oliva, Paulina

2016-01-01

Climate change may be particularly dangerous for children in developing countries. Even today, many developing countries experience a disproportionate share of extreme weather, and they are predicted to suffer disproportionately from the effects of climate change in the future. Moreover, developing countries often have limited social safety nets,…

Global climate forcing from albedo change caused by large-scale deforestation and reforestation: quantification and attribution of geographic variation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Large-scale deforestation and reforestation have contributed substantially to historical and contemporary global climate change in part through albedo-induced radiative forcing, with meaningful implications for forest management aiming to mitigate climate change. Associated warming or cooling varies...

Climate change, conflict and health.

PubMed

Bowles, Devin C; Butler, Colin D; Morisetti, Neil

2015-10-01

Future climate change is predicted to diminish essential natural resource availability in many regions and perhaps globally. The resulting scarcity of water, food and livelihoods could lead to increasingly desperate populations that challenge governments, enhancing the risk of intra- and interstate conflict. Defence establishments and some political scientists view climate change as a potential threat to peace. While the medical literature increasingly recognises climate change as a fundamental health risk, the dimension of climate change-associated conflict has so far received little attention, despite its profound health implications. Many analysts link climate change with a heightened risk of conflict via causal pathways which involve diminishing or changing resource availability. Plausible consequences include: increased frequency of civil conflict in developing countries; terrorism, asymmetric warfare, state failure; and major regional conflicts. The medical understanding of these threats is inadequate, given the scale of health implications. The medical and public health communities have often been reluctant to interpret conflict as a health issue. However, at times, medical workers have proven powerful and effective peace advocates, most notably with regard to nuclear disarmament. The public is more motivated to mitigate climate change when it is framed as a health issue. Improved medical understanding of the association between climate change and conflict could strengthen mitigation efforts and increase cooperation to cope with the climate change that is now inevitable. © The Royal Society of Medicine.

Climate change and children's health.

PubMed

Bernstein, Aaron S; Myers, Samuel S

2011-04-01

To present the latest data that demonstrate how climate change affects children's health and to identify the principal ways in which climate change puts children's health at risk. Data continue to emerge that further implicate climate change as contributing to health burdens in children. Climate models have become even more sophisticated and consistently forecast that greenhouse gas emissions will lead to higher mean temperatures that promote more intense storms and droughts, both of which have profound implications for child health. Recent climate models shed light upon the spread of vector-borne disease, including Lyme disease in North America and malaria in Africa. Modeling studies have found that conditions conducive to forest fires, which generate harmful air pollutants and damage agriculture, are likely to become more prevalent in this century due to the effects of greenhouse gases added to earth's atmosphere. Through many pathways, and in particular via placing additional stress upon the availability of food, clean air, and clean water and by potentially expanding the burden of disease from certain vector-borne diseases, climate change represents a major threat to child health. Pediatricians have already seen and will increasingly see the adverse health effects of climate change in their practices. Because of this, and many other reasons, pediatricians have a unique capacity to help resolve the climate change problem.

The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.

2015-07-01

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario,more » there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.« less

Sensitivity of Ocean Chemistry and Oxygen Change to the Uncertainty in Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, L.; Wang, S.; Zheng, M.; Zhang, H.

2014-12-01

With increasing atmospheric CO2 and climate change, global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. In particular, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would affect the projection of ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To examine the effect of climate change on ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry, we used an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform simulations that are driven by atmospheric CO2 concentration pathway of RCP 8.5 with climate sensitivity varying from 0.0°C to 4.5 °C. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. Our simulations show that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO2-induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO2-induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude, to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change.

Design standards for U.S. transportation infrastructure : the implications of climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

This paper examines the changes to engineering design practice that might occur given : climate-induced changes in environmental factors. A project design is separated into the : individual components that might be affected by changing environmental ...

Progressive Climate Change on Titan: Implications for Habitability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, J. M.; A. D. Howard

2014-01-01

Titan's landscape is profoundly shaped by its atmosphere and comparable in magnitude perhaps with only the Earth and Mars amongst the worlds of the Solar System. Like the Earth, climate dictates the intensity and relative roles of fluvial and aeolian activity from place to place and over geologic time. Thus Titan's landscape is the record of climate change. We have investigated three broad classes of Titan climate evolution hypotheses (Steady State, Progressive, and Cyclic), regulated by the role, sources, and availability of methane. We favor the Progressive hypotheses, which we will outline here, then discuss their implication for habitability.

Streamflow responses to past and projected future changes in climate at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

Treesearch

John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Katharine Hayhoe

2011-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter streamflow regimes, having ecological, economic, and societal implications. In the northeastern United States, it is unclear how climate change may affect surface water supply, which is of critical importance in this densely populated region. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the timing...

Evidence and implications of recent climate change in northern Alaska and other arctic regions.

Treesearch

Larry D. Hinzman; Neil D. Bettez; W. Robert Bolton; F. Stuart Chapin; Mark B. Dyurgerov; Chris L. Fastie; Brad Griffith; Robert D. Hollister; Allen Hope; Henry P. Huntington; Anne M. Jensen; Gensuou J. Jia; Torre Jorgenson; Douglas L. Kane; David R. Klein; Gary Kofinas; Amanda H. Lynch; Andrea H. Lloyd; A. David McGuire; Frederick E. Nelson; Walter C. Oechel; Thomas E. Osterkamp; Charles H. Racine; Vladimir E. Romanovsky; Robert S. Stone; Douglas A. Stow; Matthew Sturm; Craig E. Tweedie; George L. Vourlitis; Marilyn D. Walker; Donald A. Walker; Patrick J. Webber; Jeffrey M. Welker; Kevin S. Winker; Kenji Yoshikawa

2005-01-01

The Arctic climate is changing. Permafrost is warming, hydrological processes are changing and biological and social systems are also evolving in response to these changing conditions. Knowing how the structure and function of arctic terrestrial ecosystems are responding to recent and persistent climate change is paramount to understanding the future state of the Earth...

Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003-2100: implications for climate feedbacks

Treesearch

E.S. Euskirchen; A.D. McGuire; F.S. III Chapin; S. Yi; C.C. Thompson

2009-01-01

Assessing potential future changes in arctic and boreal plant species productivity, ecosystem composition, and canopy complexity is essential for understanding environmental responses under expected altered climate forcing. We examined potential changes in the dominant plant functional types (PFTs) of the sedge tundra, shrub tundra, and boreal forest ecosystems in...

Undergraduate Climate Education: Motivations, Strategies, Successes, and Support

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirk, Karin B.; Gold, Anne U.; Ledley, Tamara Shapiro; Sullivan, Susan Buhr; Manduca, Cathryn A.; Mogk, David W.; Wiese, Katryn

2014-01-01

Climate literacy is an essential component of a strategy to comprehend and confront the grand challenge of global climate change. However, scientific complexity, societal implications, and political associations make climate change a difficult but important topic to teach. In this paper we report on the results of a survey of undergraduate faculty…

Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.

PubMed

Pyke, Christopher R; Thomas, Roxanne; Porter, Read D; Hellmann, Jessica J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lodge, David M; Chavarria, Gabriela

2008-06-01

Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management.

Peace and Environmental Education for Climate Change: Challenges and Practices in Lebanon

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Naoufal, Nayla

2014-01-01

As noted in the literature reporting on the impact of climate change, it does not only bring about environmental degradation, i.e. ecological violence, but it may also provoke increased intercommunity and interstate violence. This article examines the implications of this relationship between climate change and increased violence for environmental…

Climate-Change Science and Policy: What Do We Know? What Should We Do

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-09-06

These briefing charts discuss climate change science and policy including: the essence of the challenge, five myths and their refutations, climate ... change risks and impact going forward, available options, how much mitigation, how soon?, mitigation supply curve and its implications, and the Obama Administration’s strategy.

Implications of cumulative GHG Emissions to Climate, Society and Ecosystems in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cayan, D. R.; Franco, G.; Pierce, D. W.

2016-12-01

We investigate simulations conducted for the ongoing Climate Change Assessments in California. In this presentation, we explore implications of global climate change threshold targets on temperature, precipitation, sea level rise, snow pack, and extreme events including heat waves, wildfire and coastal flooding in California. A set of regional models driven by an ensemble of global climate change futures from 4th and 5th IPCC Assessment GCMs indicate how California's climate and thus its hydrological systems, coast and wildlands respond to increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations at levels that produce global warming of 1.5°C and beyond. Differing global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios would produce strongly diverging results after mid-21st Century, as emphasized by the suite of modeled regional climate measures. The results demonstrate that global emissions can be used, independent of emissions pathway (but not entirely and not for all climate and impact measures), to estimate physical changes at the local and regional levels in the State. These relationships are explored to re-interpret prior studies that were based on the SRES emission scenarios along with the current suite of RCP scenarios. In addition, because historical emissions are above what was envisioned for the RCPs, and since the 2015 Conference of Parties implies a departure from the RCPs, consideration of cumulative CO2 emissions provides a useful tool for contextualizing historical emissions and expected outcomes from COP21. Climate policy implications are described, including climate adaptation guidance that California entities are required or encouraged to follow.

Buildings: Mitigation Opportunities with a Focus on Health Implications

EPA Science Inventory

For Frank Princiotta’s book, Global Climate Change—The Technology Challenge Addressing building energy use is the critical first step in any strategic plan for mitigating climate change. Buildings have a direct impact on estimated global climate change due to their large carbon ...

Climate Change Impacts on US Agriculture and Forestry: Implications of Global Climate Stabilization

EPA Science Inventory

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide levels, higher temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and other climate change impacts have already begun to affect US agriculture and forestry, with impacts expected to become more substantial in the future. Although there have been n...

Public engagement in climate change - Disjunctions, tensions and blind spots in the UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höppner, C.

2009-11-01

There is much talk about engaging the public in climate change mitigation and adaptation in the UK and elsewhere. Governments rush to demand greater engagement of the public in tackling climate change and delivering sustainable futures. The importance that public engagement has gained as part of the UK climate agenda begs the questions of what is actually behind this call and what are the implications. This paper analyses the rationale for public engagement as enshrined in major policy documents. This rationale is clearly instrumental in that citizens are expected to engage by adopting the 'right attitude', by performing prescribed behaviours, and by consenting to proposed measures. Using recent cases of climate change mitigation and adaptation practice the paper discusses the implications of such an approach to public engagement. The paper concludes that until the manifold disjunctions between climate related policy agendas and their rationales for engagement are explicitly addressed citizen engagement will be serving incumbent interests rather than contributing to socially sustainable and democratic decision-making

Potential impacts of climate change on neotropical migrants: management implications

Treesearch

Jeff T. Price; Terry L. Root

2005-01-01

The world is warming. Over the last 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.7°C. The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects a further increase in global mean temperatures of between 1.4° - 5.8° C by the year 2100. How will climate change affect Neotropical migrants? Models of changes...

Health impacts of climate change and health and social inequalities in the UK.

PubMed

Paavola, Jouni

2017-12-05

This article examines how social and health inequalities shape the health impacts of climate change in the UK, and what the implications are for climate change adaptation and health care provision. The evidence generated by the other articles of the special issue were interpreted using social justice reasoning in light of additional literature, to draw out the key implications of health and social inequalities for health outcomes of climate change. Exposure to heat and cold, air pollution, pollen, food safety risks, disruptions to access to and functioning of health services and facilities, emerging infections and flooding are examined as the key impacts of climate change influencing health outcomes. Age, pre-existing medical conditions and social deprivation are found to be the key (but not only) factors that make people vulnerable and to experience more adverse health outcomes related to climate change impacts. In the future, climate change, aging population and decreasing public spending on health and social care may aggravate inequality of health outcomes related to climate change. Health education and public preparedness measures that take into account differential exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of different groups help address health and social inequalities to do with climate change. Adaptation strategies based on individual preparedness, action and behaviour change may aggravate health and social inequalities due to their selective uptake, unless they are coupled with broad public information campaigns and financial support for undertaking adaptive measures.

Project Summary (2012-2015) – Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinkle, Ross; Benscoter, Brian; Comas, Xavier

2015-04-07

Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change The objectives of this project are to: 1) quantify above- and below-ground carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems along a seasonal hydrologic gradient in the headwaters region of the Greater Everglades watershed; 2) develop budgets of ecosystem gaseous carbon exchange (carbon dioxide and methane) across the seasonal hydrologic gradient; 3) assess the impact of climate drivers on ecosystem carbon exchange in the Greater Everglades headwater region; and 4) integrate research findings with climate-driven terrestrial ecosystem carbon models to examine the potential influence of projected future climate change on regionalmore » carbon cycling. Note: this project receives a one-year extension past the original performance period - David Sumner (USGS) is not included in this extension.« less

Evaluating the sources of potential migrant species: implications under climate change

Treesearch

Ines Ibanez; James S. Clark; Michael C. Dietze

2008-01-01

As changes in climate become more apparent, ecologists face the challenge of predicting species responses to the new conditions. Most forecasts are based on climate envelopes (CE), correlative approaches that project future distributions on the basis of the current climate often assuming some dispersal lag. One major caveat with this approach is that it ignores the...

Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creutzig, Felix; Roy, Joyashree; Lamb, William F.; Azevedo, Inês M. L.; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Dalkmann, Holger; Edelenbosch, Oreane Y.; Geels, Frank W.; Grubler, Arnulf; Hepburn, Cameron; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Khosla, Radhika; Mattauch, Linus; Minx, Jan C.; Ramakrishnan, Anjali; Rao, Narasimha D.; Steinberger, Julia K.; Tavoni, Massimo; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Weber, Elke U.

2018-04-01

Research on climate change mitigation tends to focus on supply-side technology solutions. A better understanding of demand-side solutions is missing. We propose a transdisciplinary approach to identify demand-side climate solutions, investigate their mitigation potential, detail policy measures and assess their implications for well-being.

Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems

Treesearch

Jane M. Wolken; Teresa N. Hollingsworth; T. Scott Rupp; F. Stuart Chapin; Sarah F. Trainor; Tara M. Barrett; Patrick F. Sullivan; A. David McGuire; Eugenie S. Euskirchen; Paul E. Hennon; Erik A. Beever; Jeff S. Conn; Lisa K. Crone; David V. A' More; Nancy Fresco; Thomas A. Hanley; Knut Kielland; James J. Kruse; Trista Patterson; Edward A.G. Schuur; David L. Verbyla; John Yarie

2011-01-01

The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of...

Climate change as an ecosystem architect: implications to rare plant ecology, conservation, and restoration

Treesearch

Constance I. Millar

2003-01-01

Recent advances in earth system sciences have revealed significant new information relevant to rare plant ecology and conservation. Analysis of climate change at high resolution with new and precise proxies of paleotemperatures reveals a picture over the past two million years of oscillatory climate change operating simultaneously at multiple timescales. Low-frequency...

Development and Validation of the ACSI: Measuring Students' Science Attitudes, Pro-Environmental Behaviour, Climate Change Attitudes and Knowledge

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dijkstra, E. M.; Goedhart, M. J.

2012-01-01

This article describes the development and validation of the Attitudes towards Climate Change and Science Instrument. This 63-item questionnaire measures students' pro-environmental behaviour, their climate change knowledge and their attitudes towards school science, societal implications of science, scientists, a career in science and the urgency…

A Robust, Scalable Framework for Conducting Climate Change Susceptibility Analyses

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

for identifying areas of heightened risk from varying forms of climate forcings is needed. Based on global climate model projections, deviations from...framework provides an opportunity to easily combine multiple data sources — that are often freely available from many federal, state, and global ...Climate change and extreme weather events: implications for food production, plant diseases, and pests. Global Change and Human Health 2:90–104. ERDC/EL

The future of South East Asian rainforests in a changing landscape and climate.

PubMed

Hector, Andy; Fowler, David; Nussbaum, Ruth; Weilenmann, Maja; Walsh, Rory P D

2011-11-27

With a focus on the Danum Valley area of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, this special issue has as its theme the future of tropical rainforests in a changing landscape and climate. The global environmental context to the issue is briefly given before the contents and rationale of the issue are summarized. Most of the papers are based on research carried out as part of the Royal Society South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme. The issue is divided into five sections: (i) the historical land-use and land management context; (ii) implications of land-use change for atmospheric chemistry and climate change; (iii) impacts of logging, forest fragmentation (particularly within an oil palm plantation landscape) and forest restoration on ecosystems and their functioning; (iv) the response and resilience of rainforest systems to climatic and land-use change; and (v) the scientific messages and policy implications arising from the research findings presented in the issue.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE PAGES

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-10-27

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

2017-11-01

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparison between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between -12% and +15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.

Quantifying the indirect impacts of climate on agriculture: an inter-method comparison

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Calvin, Kate; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

Climate change and increases in CO2 concentration affect the productivity of land, with implications for land use, land cover, and agricultural production. Much of the literature on the effect of climate on agriculture has focused on linking projections of changes in climate to process-based or statistical crop models. However, the changes in productivity have broader economic implications that cannot be quantified in crop models alone. How important are these socio-economic feedbacks to a comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on agriculture? In this paper, we attempt to measure the importance of these interaction effects through an inter-method comparisonmore » between process models, statistical models, and integrated assessment model (IAMs). We find the impacts on crop yields vary widely between these three modeling approaches. Yield impacts generated by the IAMs are 20%-40% higher than the yield impacts generated by process-based or statistical crop models, with indirect climate effects adjusting yields by between - 12% and + 15% (e.g. input substitution and crop switching). The remaining effects are due to technological change.« less

An Initial Look at DoD’s Activities Toward Climate Change Resiliency: An Annotated Bibliography

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-02-01

Draft Working Paper An Initial Look at DoD’s Activities Toward Climate Change Resiliency An Annotated Bibliography Susan A. Resetar and Neil Berg...contribute www.rand.org iii Preface The global effects of climate change could have widespread effects and thus pose concerns for all governments...effects and consider possible responses. Many elements of the Department have taken steps to begin dealing with the implications of climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Silverman, L.

This paper outlines the following: United Nations` framework convention on climatic change; the United States` climate change action plan; current issues to be resolved (targets/timetables, policies, advancing commitments of all parties, and compliance); and implications for clean coal technologies.

Water resources in the twenty-first century; a study of the implications of climate uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moss, Marshall E.; Lins, Harry F.

1989-01-01

The interactions of the water resources on and within the surface of the Earth with the atmosphere that surrounds it are exceedingly complex. Increased uncertainty can be attached to the availability of water of usable quality in the 21st century, therefore, because of potential anthropogenic changes in the global climate system. For the U.S. Geological Survey to continue to fulfill its mission with respect to assessing the Nation's water resources, an expanded program to study the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be required. The goal for this program is to develop knowledge and information concerning the potential water-resources implications for the United States of uncertainties in climate that may result from both anthropogenic and natural changes of the Earth's atmosphere. Like most past and current water-resources programs of the Geological Survey, the climate-uncertainty program should be composed of three elements: (1) research, (2) data collection, and (3) interpretive studies. However, unlike most other programs, the climate-uncertainty program necessarily will be dominated by its research component during its early years. Critical new concerns to be addressed by the research component are (1) areal estimates of evapotranspiration, (2) hydrologic resolution within atmospheric (climatic) models at the global scale and at mesoscales, (3) linkages between hydrology and climatology, and (4) methodology for the design of data networks that will help to track the impacts of climate change on water resources. Other ongoing activities in U.S. Geological Survey research programs will be enhanced to make them more compatible with climate-uncertainty research needs. The existing hydrologic data base of the Geological Survey serves as a key element in assessing hydrologic and climatologic change. However, this data base has evolved in response to other needs for hydrologic information and probably is not as sensitive to climate change as is desirable. Therefore, as measurement and network-design methodologies are improved to account for climate-change potential, new data-collection activities will be added to the existing programs. One particular area of data-collection concern pertains to the phenomenon of evapotranspiration. Interpretive studies of the hydrologic implications of climate uncertainty will be initiated by establishing several studies at the river-basin scale in diverse hydroclimatic and demographic settings. These studies will serve as tests of the existing methodologies for studying the impacts of climate change and also will help to define subsequent research priorities. A prototype for these studies was initiated in early 1988 in the Delaware River basin.

Gender and climate change in the Indian Hindu-Kush Himalayas: global threats, local vulnerabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogra, M. V.; Badola, R.

2014-11-01

Global climate change has numerous implications for members of mountain communities who feel the impacts in both physical and social dimensions. In the Western Himalayas of India, a majority of residents maintain a livelihood strategy that includes a combination of subsistence or small-scale agriculture, seasonal pastoral migration, male out-migration, and localized natural resource extraction. Particularly under conditions of heavy male outmigration, but throughout the region, mountain women play a key role in providing labor and knowledge related to the management of local natural resources, yet often lack authority in related political and economic decision-making processes. This gap has important implications for addressing the impacts of climate change: while warming temperatures, irregular patterns of precipitation and snowmelt, and changing biological systems present challenges to the viability of these traditional livelihood portfolios throughout the region, mountain women increasingly face new challenges in their roles as household managers that have not adequately been emphasized in larger scale planning for climate change adaptation and mitigation. These challenges are complex in nature, and are shaped not only by gender issues but also interacting factors such as class, caste, ethnicity, and age (among others). In this paper, we review the main arguments behind the discursive gender/climate change nexus, discuss the implications for gendered vulnerabilities and transformation of adaptive capacities in the region, and suggest ways that researchers and policymakers seeking to promote "climate justice" can benefit from the incorporation of gender-based perspectives and frameworks.

Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska's changing climate

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change is altering wildfire activity across Alaska, with increased area burned projected for the future. Changes in wildfire are expected to affect the need for management and suppression resources, however the potential economic implications of these needs have not been ...

Climate Change, Health, and Communication: A Primer.

PubMed

Chadwick, Amy E

2016-01-01

Climate change is one of the most serious and pervasive challenges facing us today. Our changing climate has implications not only for the ecosystems upon which we depend, but also for human health. Health communication scholars are well-positioned to aid in the mitigation of and response to climate change and its health effects. To help theorists, researchers, and practitioners engage in these efforts, this primer explains relevant issues and vocabulary associated with climate change and its impacts on health. First, this primer provides an overview of climate change, its causes and consequences, and its impacts on health. Then, the primer describes ways to decrease impacts and identifies roles for health communication scholars in efforts to address climate change and its health effects.

Climate Change Education Roundtable: A Coherent National Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Storksdieck, M.; Feder, M.; Climate Change Education Roundtable

2010-12-01

The Climate Change Education (CCE) Roundtable fosters ongoing discussion of the challenges to and strategies for improving public understanding of climate science and climate change among federal agencies, the business community, non-profit, and academic sectors. The CCE Roundtable is provides a critical mechanism for developing a coherent, national strategy to advance climate change education guided by the best available research evidence. Through its meetings and workshops, the roundtable brings together 30 federal and state policymakers, educators, communications and media experts, and members from the business and scientific community. The roundtable includes a number of ex officio members from federal agencies with dedicated interests in climate change education, including officials from the National Science Foundation’s EHR Directorate and its collaborating partner divisions, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the Department of Interior, the Department of Energy, and the Department of Education. The issues that are addressed by the roundtable include: - ways to incorporate knowledge about learning and understanding in developing informative programs and materials for decision-makers who must cope with climate change - the design of educational programs for professionals such as local planners, water managers, and the like, to enable them to better understand the implications of climate change for their decisions - development of training programs for scientists to help them become better communicators to decision-makers about implications of, and solutions to climate change - coordinated and collaborative efforts at the national level between federal agencies and other stakeholders This presenation will describe how the roundtable is fostering a coherent direction for climate change education.

Multiple dimensions of climate change and their implications for biodiversity.

PubMed

Garcia, Raquel A; Cabeza, Mar; Rahbek, Carsten; Araújo, Miguel B

2014-05-02

The 21st century is projected to witness unprecedented climatic changes, with greater warming often reported for high latitudes. Yet, climate change can be measured in a variety of ways, reflecting distinct dimensions of change with unequal spatial patterns across the world. Polar climates are projected to not only warm, but also to shrink in area. By contrast, today's hot and arid climates are expected to expand worldwide and to reach climate states with no current analog. Although rarely appreciated in combination, these multiple dimensions of change convey complementary information. We review existing climate change metrics and discuss how they relate to threats and opportunities for biodiversity. Interpreting climate change metrics is particularly useful for unknown or poorly described species, which represent most of Earth's biodiversity.

Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales.

PubMed

Devaraju, N; Bala, G; Nemani, R

2015-09-01

Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Extreme Weather Events and Interconnected Infrastructures: Toward More Comprehensive Climate Change Planning [Meeting challenges in understanding impacts of extreme weather events on connected infrastructures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Allen, Melissa R.

The President s Climate Change Action Plan calls for the development of better science, data, and tools for climate preparedness. Many of the current questions about preparedness for extreme weather events in coming decades are, however, difficult to answer with assets that have been developed by climate science to answer longer-term questions about climate change. Capacities for projecting exposures to climate-related extreme events, along with their implications for interconnected infrastructures, are now emerging.

Extreme Weather Events and Interconnected Infrastructures: Toward More Comprehensive Climate Change Planning [Meeting challenges in understanding impacts of extreme weather events on connected infrastructures

DOE PAGES

Wilbanks, Thomas J.; Fernandez, Steven J.; Allen, Melissa R.

2015-06-23

The President s Climate Change Action Plan calls for the development of better science, data, and tools for climate preparedness. Many of the current questions about preparedness for extreme weather events in coming decades are, however, difficult to answer with assets that have been developed by climate science to answer longer-term questions about climate change. Capacities for projecting exposures to climate-related extreme events, along with their implications for interconnected infrastructures, are now emerging.

Climate change, soil health, and ecosystem goods and services

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Worldwide, climate change is predicted to alter precipitation regimes, annual temperatures, and occurrence of severe weather events. These changes have important implications for soil health-- defined as the capacity of a soil to contribute to ecosystem function and sustain producers and consumers--...

Evaluating climate variables, indexes and thresholds governing Arctic urban sustainability: case study of Russian permafrost regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anisimov, O. A.; Kokorev, V.

2013-12-01

Addressing Arctic urban sustainability today forces planners to deal with the complex interplay of multiple factors, including governance and economic development, demography and migration, environmental changes and land use, changes in the ecosystems and their services, and climate change. While the latter can be seen as a factor that exacerbates the existing vulnerabilities to other stressors, changes in temperature, precipitation, snow, river and lake ice, and the hydrological regime also have direct implications for the cities in the North. Climate change leads to reduced demand for heating energy, on one hand, and heightened concerns about the fate of the infrastructure built upon thawing permafrost, on the other. Changes in snowfall are particularly important and have direct implications for the urban economy, as together with heating costs, expenses for snow removal from streets, airport runways, roofs and ventilation corridors underneath buildings erected on pile foundations on permafrost constitute the bulk of the city's maintenance budget. Many cities are located in river valleys and are prone to flooding that leads to enormous economic losses and casualties, including human deaths. The severity of the northern climate has direct implications for demographic changes governed by regional migration and labor flows. Climate could thus be viewed as an inexhaustible public resource that creates opportunities for sustainable urban development. Long-term trends show that climate as a resource is becoming more readily available in the Russian North, notwithstanding the general perception that globally climate change is one of the challenges facing humanity in the 21st century. In this study we explore the sustainability of the Arctic urban environment under changing climatic conditions. We identify key governing variables and indexes and study the thresholds beyond which changes in the governing climatic parameters have significant impact on the economy, infrastructure and society in the Arctic cities. We use CMIP-5 ensemble projection to evaluate future changes in these parameters and identify regions where immediate attention is needed to develop appropriate adaptation strategies. Acknowledgement. This study is supported by the German-Russian Otto Schmidt Laboratory, project OSL-13-02, and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research, projects 13-05-0072 and 13-05-91171.

Climate change on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming: a synthesis of past climate, climate projections, and ecosystem implications

Treesearch

Janine Rice; Andrew Tredennick; Linda A. Joyce

2012-01-01

The Shoshone National Forest (Shoshone) covers 2.4 million acres of mountainous topography in northwest Wyoming and is a vital ecosystem that provides clean water, wildlife habitat, timber, grazing, recreational opportunities, and aesthetic value. The Shoshone has experienced and adapted to changes in climate for many millennia, and is currently experiencing a warming...

Climate change & infectious diseases in India: implications for health care providers.

PubMed

Dhara, V Ramana; Schramm, Paul J; Luber, George

2013-12-01

Climate change has the potential to influence the earth's biological systems, however, its effects on human health are not well defined. Developing nations with limited resources are expected to face a host of health effects due to climate change, including vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and dengue. This article reviews common and prevalent infectious diseases in India, their links to climate change, and how health care providers might discuss preventive health care strategies with their patients.

Climate change & infectious diseases in India: Implications for health care providers

PubMed Central

Dhara, V. Ramana; Schramm, Paul J.; Luber, George

2013-01-01

Climate change has the potential to influence the earth's biological systems, however, its effects on human health are not well defined. Developing nations with limited resources are expected to face a host of health effects due to climate change, including vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria, cholera, and dengue. This article reviews common and prevalent infectious diseases in India, their links to climate change, and how health care providers might discuss preventive health care strategies with their patients. PMID:24521625

Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of Climate Change on National and International Security

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-10-01

Propulsion Laboratory Dr. Diane Evans Jet Propulsion Laboratory CAPT Tim Gallaudet US Navy Task Force on Climate Change Mr. David Goldwyn State...Ashley Moran Strauss Center, University of Texas, Austin DOD’s (Minerva) Climate Change and African Political Stability Project CAPT Timothy ... Gallaudet Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy Navy’s Climate Change Task Force Dr. Sherri Goodman, Dr. Ralph Espach and Mr. Peter MacKenzie CNA

Modeling forest mortality caused by drought stress: implications for climate change

Treesearch

Eric J Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant

2013-01-01

Climate change is expected to affect forest landscape dynamics in many ways, but it is possible that the most important direct impact of climate change will be drought stress. We combined data from weather stations and forest inventory plots (FIA) across the upper Great Lakes region (USA) to study the relationship between measures of drought stress and mortality for...

Climate change and California: potential implications for vegetation, carbon, and fire.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson

2005-01-01

Nineteen scientists from leading research institutes in the United States collaborated to estimate how California’s environment and economy would respond to global climate change. A scientist from the PNW Research Station led efforts to estimate effects on vegetation, carbon, and fire.To quantify the range of the possible effects of climate change over the...

Template for assessing climate change impacts and management options: TACCIMO user guide version 2.2

Treesearch

Emrys Treasure; Steven McNulty; Jennifer Moore Myers; Lisa Nicole Jennings

2014-01-01

The Template for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Management Options (TACCIMO) is a Web-based tool developed by the Forest Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture to assist Federal, State, and private land managers and planners with evaluation of climate change science implications for sustainable natural resource management. TACCIMO is a dynamic information...

Climate change, aquatic ecosystems, and fishes in the Rocky Mountain West: implications and alternatives for management

Treesearch

Bruce E. Rieman; Daniel J. Isaak

2010-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly altering aquatic ecosystems across the Rocky Mountain West and may detrimentally impact populations of sensitive species that are often the focus of conservation efforts. The objective of this report is to synthesize a growing literature on these topics to address the following questions: (1) What is changing in climate and...

Sensitivity of ocean acidification and oxygen to the uncertainty in climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Long; Wang, Shuangjing; Zheng, Meidi; Zhang, Han

2014-05-01

Due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations and associated climate change, the global ocean is undergoing substantial physical and biogeochemical changes. Among these, changes in ocean oxygen and carbonate chemistry have great implication for marine biota. There is considerable uncertainty in the projections of future climate change, and it is unclear how the uncertainty in climate change would also affect the projection of oxygen and carbonate chemistry. To investigate this issue, we use an Earth system model of intermediate complexity to perform a set of simulations, including that which involves no radiative effect of atmospheric CO2 and those which involve CO2-induced climate change with climate sensitivity varying from 0.5 °C to 4.5 °C. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is prescribed to follow RCP 8.5 pathway and its extensions. Climate change affects carbonate chemistry and oxygen mainly through its impact on ocean temperature, ocean ventilation, and concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity. It is found that climate change mitigates the decrease of carbonate ions at the ocean surface but has negligible effect on surface ocean pH. Averaged over the whole ocean, climate change acts to decrease oxygen concentration but mitigates the CO2-induced reduction of carbonate ion and pH. In our simulations, by year 2500, every degree increase of climate sensitivity warms the ocean by 0.8 °C and reduces ocean-mean dissolved oxygen concentration by 5.0%. Meanwhile, every degree increase of climate sensitivity buffers CO2-induced reduction in ocean-mean carbonate ion concentration and pH by 3.4% and 0.02 units, respectively. Our study demonstrates different sensitivities of ocean temperature, carbonate chemistry, and oxygen, in terms of both the sign and magnitude to the amount of climate change, which have great implications for understanding the response of ocean biota to climate change.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M.; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R.; Sharp, Anthony K.; Martin, Karl J.

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

Understanding Climate Adaptation on Public Lands in the Upper Midwest: Implications for Monitoring and Tracking Progress.

PubMed

Anhalt-Depies, Christine M; Knoot, Tricia Gorby; Rissman, Adena R; Sharp, Anthony K; Martin, Karl J

2016-05-01

There are limited examples of efforts to systematically monitor and track climate change adaptation progress in the context of natural resource management, despite substantial investments in adaptation initiatives. To better understand the status of adaptation within state natural resource agencies, we utilized and problematized a rational decision-making framework to characterize adaptation at the level of public land managers in the Upper Midwest. We conducted in-depth interviews with 29 biologists and foresters to provide an understanding of managers' experiences with, and perceptions of, climate change impacts, efforts towards planning for climate change, and a full range of actions implemented to address climate change. While the majority of managers identified climate change impacts affecting their region, they expressed significant uncertainty in interpreting those signals. Just under half of managers indicated planning efforts are underway, although most planning is remote from local management. Actions already implemented include both forward-looking measures and those aimed at coping with current impacts. In addition, cross-scale dynamics emerged as an important theme related to the overall adaptation process. The results hold implications for tracking future progress on climate change adaptation. Common definitions or measures of adaptation (e.g., presence of planning documents) may need to be reassessed for applicability at the level of public land managers.

Socioeconomic impacts of climate change on U.S. water supplies

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frederick, K.D.; Schwarz, G.E.

1999-01-01

A greenhouse warming would have major effects on water supplies and demands. A framework for examining the socioeconomic impacts associated with changes in the long-term availability of water is developed and applied to the hydrologic implications of the Canadian and British Hadley2 general circulation models (GCMs) for the 18 water resource regions in the conterminous United States. The climate projections of these two GCMs have very different implications for future water supplies and costs. The Canadian model suggests most of the nation would be much drier in the year 2030. Under the least-cost management scenario the drier climate could add nearly $105 billion to the estimated costs of balancing supplies and demands relative to the costs without climate change. Measures to protect instream flows and irrigation could result in significantly higher costs. In contrast, projections based on the Hadley model suggest water supplies would increase throughout much of the nation, reducing the costs of balancing water supplies with demands relative to the no-climate-change case.

Primer on transportation and climate change

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-04-01

This primer is an introduction to the issue of climate change and its implications for transportation policy in the United States. Its purpose is to outline the current thinking of governmental agencies, researchers, and advocacy groups on the issue ...

Climate change and game theory.

PubMed

Wood, Peter John

2011-02-01

This paper examines the problem of achieving global cooperation to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Contributions to this problem are reviewed from noncooperative game theory, cooperative game theory, and implementation theory. We examine the solutions to games where players have a continuous choice about how much to pollute, as well as games where players make decisions about treaty participation. The implications of linking cooperation on climate change with cooperation on other issues, such as trade, are also examined. Cooperative and noncooperative approaches to coalition formation are investigated in order to examine the behavior of coalitions cooperating on climate change. One way to achieve cooperation is to design a game, known as a mechanism, whose equilibrium corresponds to an optimal outcome. This paper examines some mechanisms that are based on conditional commitments, and their policy implications. These mechanisms could make cooperation on climate change mitigation more likely. © 2011 New York Academy of Sciences.

Bringing climate change into natural resource management: proceedings.

Treesearch

L. Joyce; R. Haynes; R. White; R.J. Barbour

2007-01-01

These are the proceedings of the 2005 workshop titled implications of bringing climate into natural resource management in the Western United States. This workshop was an attempt to further the dialogue among scientists, land managers, landowners, interested stakeholders and the public about how individuals are addressing climate change in natural resource management....

Embryonic development rates of northern grasshoppers (Orthoptera: Acrididae): implications for climate change and habitat management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Temperature-dependent rates of embryonic development are a primary determinant of the life cycle of many species of grasshoppers which, in cold climates, spend two winters in the egg stage. Knowledge of embryonic developmental rates is important for an assessment of the effects of climate change and...

Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

PubMed

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-04-29

Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change.

Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

PubMed Central

Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2010-01-01

Background Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. Methodology/Principal Findings We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070–2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Conclusions/Significance Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has potential as a conservation strategy for species threatened by climate change. PMID:20454451

Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Judith D. Gardiner; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew Peters

2013-01-01

Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new...

Climate change and special habitats in the Blue Mountains: Riparian areas, wetlands, and groundwater-dependent ecosystems [Chapter 7

Treesearch

Kathleen A. Dwire; Sabine Mellmann-Brown

2017-01-01

In the Blue Mountains, climate change is likely to have significant, long-term implications for freshwater resources, including riparian areas, wetlands (box 7.1), and groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs, box 7.2). Climate change is expected to cause a transition from snow to rain, resulting in diminished snowpack and shifts in streamflow to earlier in the season (...

China’s Increasing Influence in Oceania: Implications for the United States

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

China’s Vice Foreign Minister announced that China’s development assistance would be focusing on climate change initiatives, agricultural...such as climate change and women’s representation in society. 68 These policies and programs are also focused on some of 15 the key identified...development in the region. These commonalities include climate change , agricultural development, fisheries conservation and management, environmental

Effect of climate change on crop production patterns with implications to transport flows and inland waterways.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-12-01

This project analyzed the demand for transportation capacity and changes in transportation flows on : inland waterways due to shifts in crop production patterns induced by climate change. Shifts in the crop : production mix have been observed in rece...

A Framework to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on Stream Health Indicators in Michigan Watersheds

EPA Science Inventory

Climate change is projected to alter watershed hydrology and potentially amplify nonpoint source pollution transport. These changes have implications for fish and macroinvertebrates, which are often used as measures of aquatic ecosystem health. By quantifying the risk of adverse ...

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection

PubMed Central

Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E.; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E.

2015-01-01

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. PMID:25688019

Effects of heat stress on working populations when facing climate change.

PubMed

Lundgren, Karin; Kuklane, Kalev; Gao, Chuansi; Holmér, Ingvar

2013-01-01

It is accepted that the earth's climate is changing in an accelerating pace, with already documented implications for human health and the environment. This literature review provides an overview of existing research findings about the effects of heat stress on the working population in relation to climate change. In the light of climate change adaptation, the purpose of the literature review was to explore recent and previous research into the impacts of heat stress on humans in an occupational setting. Heat stress in the workplace has been researched extensively in the past however, in the contemporary context of climate change, information is lacking on its extent and implications. The main factors found to exacerbate heat stress in the current and future workplace are the urban 'heat island effect', physical work, individual differences, and the developing country context where technological fixes are often not applicable. There is also a lack of information on the effects on vulnerable groups such as elderly people and pregnant women. As increasing temperatures reduce work productivity, world economic productivity could be condensed, affecting developing countries in the tropical climate zone disproportionately. Future research is needed taking an interdisciplinary approach, including social, economic, environmental and technical aspects.

Implications of global climate change for housing, human settlements and public health.

PubMed

Hales, Simon; Baker, Michael; Howden-Chapman, Philippa; Menne, Bettina; Woodruff, Rosalie; Woodward, Alistair

2007-01-01

Global climate change has profound implications for human societies. The present---ecologically unsustainable--trajectory of human development fails to provide for the basic needs of a substantial fraction of the global population, while diminishing the prospects for future generations. Human-caused climate change has already begun to affect weather patterns, physical and biological phenomena, and vulnerable human communities. Because the social processes of production and consumption have their own momentum, and because carbon dioxide has a long atmospheric lifetime, further climate change is inevitable over the coming century, even allowing for the adoption of mitigation measures. This situation implies that we should also try to reduce, and where possible to prevent, the adverse effects of climate changes by planned adaptation. Will human settlements be able to provide a healthy living environment and shelter from extreme climate events, such as cyclones and heat waves? In this paper, we review the nexus between human health, climate change, and the planning of housing and human settlements. We conclude that adapting to a rapidly changing global environment will be a major challenge, in the context of increasing population and per capita consumption, without increasing pressures on natural systems. Energy-efficient cities and the creation of opportunities for poor countries will be important elements of people centered, ecologically sustainable, development in the twenty-first century.

Climate change effects on stream and river temperatures across the northwest U.S. from 1980-2009 and implications for salmonid fishes

Treesearch

D. J. Isaak; S. Wollrab; D. Horan; G. Chandler

2011-01-01

Thermal regimes in rivers and streams are fundamentally important to aquatic ecosystems and are expected to change in response to climate forcing as the Earth’s temperature warms. Description and attribution of stream temperature changes are key to understanding how these ecosystems may be affected by climate change, but difficult given the rarity of long-term...

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, 1 December 1991--30 June 1994

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wigley, T.M.L.; Jones, P.D.

1994-07-01

In addition to changes due to variations in greenhouse gas concentrations, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the enhanced greenhouse effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics. To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided bymore » a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to ocean General Circulation Models. Appendices A--G contain the following seven papers: (A) Recent global warmth moderated by the effects of the Mount Pinatubo eruption; (B) Recent warming in global temperature series; (C) Correlation methods in fingerprint detection studies; (D) Balancing the carbon budget. Implications for projections of future carbon dioxide concentration changes; (E) A simple model for estimating methane concentration and lifetime variations; (F) Implications for climate and sea level of revised IPCC emissions scenarios; and (G) Sulfate aerosol and climatic change.« less

Climate forcings in the industrial era.

PubMed

Hansen, J E; Sato, M; Lacis, A; Ruedy, R; Tegen, I; Matthews, E

1998-10-27

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

1998-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is-that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Climate forcings in the Industrial era

PubMed Central

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

1998-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular “business as usual” or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue. PMID:9788985

Climate Simulations of Past, Present and Future

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

1999-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Climate Forcing in the Industrial Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.

1998-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO2 growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Perspective: Climate Forcings in the Industrial Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James E.; Sato, Makiko; Lacis, Andrew; Ruedy, Reto; Tegen, Ina; Matthews, Elaine

1998-01-01

The forcings that drive long-term climate change are not known with an accuracy sufficient to define future climate change. Anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are well measured, cause a strong positive (warming) forcing. But other, poorly measured, anthropogenic forcings, especially changes of atmospheric aerosols, clouds, and land-use patterns, cause a negative forcing that tends to offset greenhouse warming. One consequence of this partial balance is that the natural forcing due to solar irradiance changes may play a larger role in long-term climate change than inferred from comparison with GHGs alone. Current trends in GHG climate forcings are smaller than in popular "business as usual" or 1% per year CO growth scenarios. The summary implication is a paradigm change for long-term climate projections: uncertainties in climate forcings have supplanted global climate sensitivity as the predominant issue.

Implications of climate change on wind erosion of agricultural lands in the Columbia Plateau

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change may impact soil health and productivity as a result of accelerated or decelerated rates of erosion. Previous studies suggest a greater risk of wind erosion on arid and semi-arid lands due to loss of biomass under a future warmer climate. There have been no studies conducted to assess ...

Using Dialogue to Engage Agricultural Audiences in Cooperative Learning about Climate Change: A Strategy with Broad Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Doll, Julie E.; Eschbach, Cheryl L.; DeDecker, James

2018-01-01

Dialogue with stakeholders has been recognized as an effective educational strategy for addressing complex topics such as climate change. We report here on the Carbon, Energy, and Climate fishbowl discussion series developed by Michigan State University Extension to assist the state's agricultural community in understanding and adapting to the…

Niche overlap of competing carnivores across climatic gradients and the conservation implications of climate change at geographic range margins

Treesearch

William J. Zielinski; Jody M. Tucker; Kerry M. Rennie

2017-01-01

There is considerable interest in factors controlling “warm-edge” limits – the lower elevation and latitudinal edges of a species' range. Understanding whether conservation measures can mitigate anticipated change in climate requires consideration of future climate as well as species interactions. We explored niche relations of martens and fishers at their...

Polarizing news? Representations of threat and efficacy in leading US newspapers' coverage of climate change.

PubMed

Feldman, Lauren; Hart, P Sol; Milosevic, Tijana

2017-05-01

This study examines non-editorial news coverage in leading US newspapers as a source of ideological differences on climate change. A quantitative content analysis compared how the threat of climate change and efficacy for actions to address it were represented in climate change coverage across The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and USA Today between 2006 and 2011. Results show that The Wall Street Journal was least likely to discuss the impacts of and threat posed by climate change and most likely to include negative efficacy information and use conflict and negative economic framing when discussing actions to address climate change. The inclusion of positive efficacy information was similar across newspapers. Also, across all newspapers, climate impacts and actions to address climate change were more likely to be discussed separately than together in the same article. Implications for public engagement and ideological polarization are discussed.

Humidity-regulated dormancy onset in the Fabaceae: a conceptual model and its ecological implications for the Australian wattle Acacia saligna.

PubMed

Tozer, Mark G; Ooi, Mark K J

2014-09-01

Seed dormancy enhances fitness by preventing seeds from germinating when the probability of seedling survival and recruitment is low. The onset of physical dormancy is sensitive to humidity during ripening; however, the implications of this mechanism for seed bank dynamics have not been quantified. This study proposes a model that describes how humidity-regulated dormancy onset may control the accumulation of a dormant seed bank, and seed experiments are conducted to calibrate the model for an Australian Fabaceae, Acacia saligna. The model is used to investigate the impact of climate on seed dormancy and to forecast the ecological implications of human-induced climate change. The relationship between relative humidity and dormancy onset was quantified under laboratory conditions by exposing freshly matured non-dormant seeds to constant humidity levels for fixed durations. The model was field-calibrated by measuring the response of seeds exposed to naturally fluctuating humidity. The model was applied to 3-hourly records of humidity spanning the period 1972-2007 in order to estimate both temporal variability in dormancy and spatial variability attributable to climatic differences among populations. Climate change models were used to project future changes in dormancy onset. A sigmoidal relationship exists between dormancy and humidity under both laboratory and field conditions. Seeds ripened under field conditions became dormant following very short exposure to low humidity (<20 %). Prolonged exposure at higher humidity did not increase dormancy significantly. It is predicted that populations growing in a temperate climate produce 33-55 % fewer dormant seeds than those in a Mediterranean climate; however, dormancy in temperate populations is predicted to increase as a result of climate change. Humidity-regulated dormancy onset may explain observed variation in physical dormancy. The model offers a systematic approach to modelling this variation in population studies. Forecast changes in climate have the potential to alter the seed bank dynamics of species with physical dormancy regulated by this mechanism, with implications for their capacity to delay germination and exploit windows for recruitment. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Humidity-regulated dormancy onset in the Fabaceae: a conceptual model and its ecological implications for the Australian wattle Acacia saligna

PubMed Central

Tozer, Mark G.; Ooi, Mark K. J.

2014-01-01

Background and aims Seed dormancy enhances fitness by preventing seeds from germinating when the probability of seedling survival and recruitment is low. The onset of physical dormancy is sensitive to humidity during ripening; however, the implications of this mechanism for seed bank dynamics have not been quantified. This study proposes a model that describes how humidity-regulated dormancy onset may control the accumulation of a dormant seed bank, and seed experiments are conducted to calibrate the model for an Australian Fabaceae, Acacia saligna. The model is used to investigate the impact of climate on seed dormancy and to forecast the ecological implications of human-induced climate change. Methods The relationship between relative humidity and dormancy onset was quantified under laboratory conditions by exposing freshly matured non-dormant seeds to constant humidity levels for fixed durations. The model was field-calibrated by measuring the response of seeds exposed to naturally fluctuating humidity. The model was applied to 3-hourly records of humidity spanning the period 1972–2007 in order to estimate both temporal variability in dormancy and spatial variability attributable to climatic differences among populations. Climate change models were used to project future changes in dormancy onset. Key Results A sigmoidal relationship exists between dormancy and humidity under both laboratory and field conditions. Seeds ripened under field conditions became dormant following very short exposure to low humidity (<20 %). Prolonged exposure at higher humidity did not increase dormancy significantly. It is predicted that populations growing in a temperate climate produce 33–55 % fewer dormant seeds than those in a Mediterranean climate; however, dormancy in temperate populations is predicted to increase as a result of climate change. Conclusions Humidity-regulated dormancy onset may explain observed variation in physical dormancy. The model offers a systematic approach to modelling this variation in population studies. Forecast changes in climate have the potential to alter the seed bank dynamics of species with physical dormancy regulated by this mechanism, with implications for their capacity to delay germination and exploit windows for recruitment. PMID:25015069

Potential climate change impacts and the BLM Rio Puerco field office's transportation system : a technical report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-03-01

This report provides information about potential climate change impacts in central New Mexico and their possible implications for the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Rio Puerco Field Office (RPFO) transportation network. The report considers existing...

Will extreme climatic events facilitate biological invasions?

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extreme climatic events, such as intense heat waves, hurricanes, floods and droughts, can dramatically affect ecological and evolutionary processes, and more extreme events are projected with ongoing climate change. However, the implications of these events for biological invasions, which themselves...

An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation.

PubMed

Hess, Jeremy J; Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E; Raab, Kristin K; Luber, George

2014-11-01

Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders.

Malaria Ecology, Disease Burden and Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mccord, G. C.

2014-12-01

Malaria has afflicted human society for over 2 million years, and remains one of the great killer diseases today. The disease is the fourth leading cause of death for children under five in low income countries (after neonatal disorders, diarrhea, and pneumonia) and is responsible for at least one in every five child deaths in sub-Saharan Africa. It kills up to 3 million people a year, though in recent years scale up of anti-malaria efforts in Africa may have brought deaths to below 1 million. Malaria is highly conditioned by ecology, because of which climate change is likely to change the local dynamics of the disease through changes in ambient temperature and precipitation. To assess the potential implications of climate change for the malaria burden, this paper employs a Malaria Ecology Index from the epidemiology literature, relates it to malaria incidence and mortality using global country-level data , and then draws implications for 2100 by extrapolating the index using several general circulation model (GCM) predictions of temperature and precipitation. The results highlight the climate change driven increase in the basic reproduction number of the disease and the resulting complications for further gains in elimination. For illustrative purposes, I report the change in malaria incidence and mortality if climate change were to happen immediately under current technology and public health efforts.

Understanding global climate change scenarios through bioclimate stratification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soteriades, A. D.; Murray-Rust, D.; Trabucco, A.; Metzger, M. J.

2017-08-01

Despite progress in impact modelling, communicating and understanding the implications of climatic change projections is challenging due to inherent complexity and a cascade of uncertainty. In this letter, we present an alternative representation of global climate change projections based on shifts in 125 multivariate strata characterized by relatively homogeneous climate. These strata form climate analogues that help in the interpretation of climate change impacts. A Random Forests classifier was calculated and applied to 63 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate scenarios at 5 arcmin resolution. Results demonstrate how shifting bioclimate strata can summarize future environmental changes and form a middle ground, conveniently integrating current knowledge of climate change impact with the interpretation advantages of categorical data but with a level of detail that resembles a continuous surface at global and regional scales. Both the agreement in major change and differences between climate change projections are visually combined, facilitating the interpretation of complex uncertainty. By making the data and the classifier available we provide a climate service that helps facilitate communication and provide new insight into the consequences of climate change.

'I don't get this climate stuff!' Making sense of climate change among the corporate middle class in Lagos.

PubMed

Asiyanbi, Adeniyi P

2015-11-01

Public engagement continues to be central to wider efforts to address climate change. This study contributes to public engagement debates by investigating engagement with climate change among an often overlooked group, the corporate middle class in Africa's second largest megacity, Lagos. Combining survey and interviews, I focus analysis on three aspects: awareness, knowledge and concern; role of scientific and social frames in shaping general attitude; and spatial attribution of causes and consequences. The study reveals a universal awareness and high concern about climate change among the respondents, although understanding and perceptions of climate change are significantly socially framed. Social situatedness, more than scientific facts, is the most important definer of overall engagement with climate change. This study thus underscores a nuanced constructionist stance, showing how corporate professionals' 'ways of knowing' climate change is underpinned by a certain co-production between scientific and socio-experiential frames. I highlight implications for research and public engagement with climate change. © The Author(s) 2015.

Introduction to the Special Issue on Climate Ethics: Uncertainty, Values and Policy.

PubMed

Roeser, Sabine

2017-10-01

Climate change is a pressing phenomenon with huge potential ethical, legal and social policy implications. Climate change gives rise to intricate moral and policy issues as it involves contested science, uncertainty and risk. In order to come to scientifically and morally justified, as well as feasible, policies, targeting climate change requires an interdisciplinary approach. This special issue will identify the main challenges that climate change poses from social, economic, methodological and ethical perspectives by focusing on the complex interrelations between uncertainty, values and policy in this context. This special issue brings together scholars from economics, social sciences and philosophy in order to address these challenges.

Public health benefits of strategies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions: overview and implications for policy makers.

PubMed

Haines, Andy; McMichael, Anthony J; Smith, Kirk R; Roberts, Ian; Woodcock, James; Markandya, Anil; Armstrong, Ben G; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Dangour, Alan D; Davies, Michael; Bruce, Nigel; Tonne, Cathryn; Barrett, Mark; Wilkinson, Paul

2009-12-19

This Series has examined the health implications of policies aimed at tackling climate change. Assessments of mitigation strategies in four domains-household energy, transport, food and agriculture, and electricity generation-suggest an important message: that actions to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions often, although not always, entail net benefits for health. In some cases, the potential benefits seem to be substantial. This evidence provides an additional and immediate rationale for reductions in greenhouse-gas emissions beyond that of climate change mitigation alone. Climate change is an increasing and evolving threat to the health of populations worldwide. At the same time, major public health burdens remain in many regions. Climate change therefore adds further urgency to the task of addressing international health priorities, such as the UN Millennium Development Goals. Recognition that mitigation strategies can have substantial benefits for both health and climate protection offers the possibility of policy choices that are potentially both more cost effective and socially attractive than are those that address these priorities independently. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Solar variability: Implications for global change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lean, Judith; Rind, David

1994-01-01

Solar variability is examined in search of implications for global change. The topics covered include the following: solar variation modification of global surface temperature; the significance of solar variability with respect to future climate change; and methods of reducing the uncertainty of the potential amplitude of solar variability on longer time scales.

Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Vulnerability to climate variability and change in East Timor.

PubMed

Barnett, Jon; Dessai, Suraje; Jones, Roger N

2007-07-01

This paper presents the results of a preliminary study of climate vulnerability in East Timor. It shows the results of projections of climate change in East Timor. The country's climate may become hotter, drier, and increasingly variable. Sea levels are likely to rise. The paper then considers the implications of these changes on three natural resources--water, soils, and the coastal zone--and finds all to be sensitive to changes in climate and sea level. Changes in the abundance and distribution of these resources is likely to cause a reduction in agricultural production and food security, and sea-level rise is likely to damage coastal areas, including Dili, the capital city.

Landscape patterns of bioenergy in a changing climate: implications for crop allocation and land-use competition

Treesearch

Rose A. Graves; Scott M. Pearson; Monica G. Turner

2016-01-01

Rural landscapes face changing climate, shifting development pressure, and loss of agricultural land. Perennial bioenergy crops grown on existing agricultural land may provide an opportunity to conserve rural landscapes while addressing increased demand for biofuels. However, increased bioenergy production and changing land use raise concerns for tradeoffs...

Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Thomas G.; Richardson, Andrew D.; McGuire, Kevin J.; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

Climate change is projected to outpace rates of niche change in grasses.

PubMed

Cang, F Alice; Wilson, Ashley A; Wiens, John J

2016-09-01

Climate change may soon threaten much of global biodiversity, especially if species cannot adapt to changing climatic conditions quickly enough. A critical question is how quickly climatic niches change, and if this speed is sufficient to prevent extinction as climates warm. Here, we address this question in the grass family (Poaceae). Grasses are fundamental to one of Earth's most widespread biomes (grasslands), and provide roughly half of all calories consumed by humans (including wheat, rice, corn and sorghum). We estimate rates of climatic niche change in 236 species and compare these with rates of projected climate change by 2070. Our results show that projected climate change is consistently faster than rates of niche change in grasses, typically by more than 5000-fold for temperature-related variables. Although these results do not show directly what will happen under global warming, they have troubling implications for a major biome and for human food resources. © 2016 The Author(s).

Mechanistic Toxicology in the Face of Global Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

To incorporate effects of global climate change (GCC) into regulatory assessments of chemical risk, damage and restoration needs, an understanding is needed of GCC effects on mechanisms of chemical toxicity and the implications of those effects when placed in context with GCC eff...

Soil transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behaviour.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil transmitted helminthiases (STH) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warmin...

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society

PubMed Central

MIMURA, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society. PMID:23883609

Implications of climate and land use change: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hall, Jefferson S.; Murgueitio, Enrique; Calle, Zoraida; Raudsepp-Hearne, Ciara; Stallard, Robert F.; Balvanera, Patricia; Hall, Jefferson S.; Kirn, Vanessa; Yanguas-Fernandez, Estrella

2015-01-01

This chapter relates ecosystem services to climate change and land use. The bulk of the chapter focuses on ecosystem services and steepland land use in the humid Neotropics – what is lost with land-cover changed, and what is gained with various types of restoration that are sustainable given private ownership. Many case studies are presented later in the white paper. The USGS contribution relates to climate change and the role of extreme weather events in land-use planning.

The impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of two vectors of Chagas disease: implications for the force of infection.

PubMed

Medone, Paula; Ceccarelli, Soledad; Parham, Paul E; Figuera, Andreína; Rabinovich, Jorge E

2015-04-05

Chagas disease, caused by the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, is the most important vector-borne disease in Latin America. The vectors are insects belonging to the Triatominae (Hemiptera, Reduviidae), and are widely distributed in the Americas. Here, we assess the implications of climatic projections for 2050 on the geographical footprint of two of the main Chagas disease vectors: Rhodnius prolixus (tropical species) and Triatoma infestans (temperate species). We estimated the epidemiological implications of current to future transitions in the climatic niche in terms of changes in the force of infection (FOI) on the rural population of two countries: Venezuela (tropical) and Argentina (temperate). The climatic projections for 2050 showed heterogeneous impact on the climatic niches of both vector species, with a decreasing trend of suitability of areas that are currently at high-to-moderate transmission risk. Consequently, climatic projections affected differently the FOI for Chagas disease in Venezuela and Argentina. Despite the heterogeneous results, our main conclusions point out a decreasing trend in the number of new cases of Tr. cruzi human infections per year between current and future conditions using a climatic niche approach. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity conservation in a changing climate: a review of threats and implications for conservation planning in Myanmar.

PubMed

Rao, Madhu; Saw Htun; Platt, Steven G; Tizard, Robert; Poole, Colin; Than Myint; Watson, James E M

2013-11-01

High levels of species richness and endemism make Myanmar a regional priority for conservation. However, decades of economic and political sanctions have resulted in low conservation investment to effectively tackle threats to biodiversity. Recent sweeping political reforms have placed Myanmar on the fast track to economic development-the expectation is increased economic investments focused on the exploitation of the country's rich, and relatively intact, natural resources. Within a context of weak regulatory capacity and inadequate environmental safeguards, rapid economic development is likely to have far-reaching negative implications for already threatened biodiversity and natural-resource-dependent human communities. Climate change will further exacerbate prevailing threats given Myanmar's high exposure and vulnerability. The aim of this review is to examine the implications of increased economic growth and a changing climate within the larger context of biodiversity conservation in Myanmar. We summarize conservation challenges, assess direct climatological impacts on biodiversity and conclude with recommendations for long-term adaptation approaches for biodiversity conservation.

Climate Change and Food Security: Health Impacts in Developed Countries

PubMed Central

Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R.; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W.

2012-01-01

Background: Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. Objectives: We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Methods: Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Results: Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Conclusions: Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and respond to nutritional and safety issues that arise. PMID:23124134

Climate change and food security: health impacts in developed countries.

PubMed

Lake, Iain R; Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B A; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W

2012-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and respond to nutritional and safety issues that arise.

Disturbance and climate change in United States/Mexico borderland plant communities: a state-of-the-knowledge review

Treesearch

Guy R. McPherson; Jake F. Weltzin

2000-01-01

This review evaluates the effects and importance of disturbance and climate change on plant community dynamics in the United States/Mexico borderlands region. Our primary focus is on knowledge of physiognomic-level change in grasslands and woodlands of southeastern Arizona and southwestern New Mexico. Changes in vegetation physiognomy have broad implications for...

A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the report, A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report is a screening-level assessment of the potential implications climate change has had on combined sewer overflow (CSO) mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report describes the potential scope and magnitude of climate change impacts on combined sewer overflow (CSOs) mitigation efforts in the Great Lakes Region and New England Region.

Vulnerability Assessments in Support of the Climate Ready ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

As part of the Climate Ready Estuaries (CRE) program, the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has prepared a report exploring a new methodology for climate change vulnerability assessments using Massachusetts Bays’ salt marsh ecosystem as a demonstration. The aim is to synthesize place-based information on the potential implications of climate change for key ecosystem processes in each estuary, in a form that will enable managers to undertake management adaptation planning.

Hotspots of climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa and implications for adaptation and development.

PubMed

Müller, Christoph; Waha, Katharina; Bondeau, Alberte; Heinke, Jens

2014-08-01

Development efforts for poverty reduction and food security in sub-Saharan Africa will have to consider future climate change impacts. Large uncertainties in climate change impact assessments do not necessarily complicate, but can inform development strategies. The design of development strategies will need to consider the likelihood, strength, and interaction of climate change impacts across biosphere properties. We here explore the spread of climate change impact projections and develop a composite impact measure to identify hotspots of climate change impacts, addressing likelihood and strength of impacts. Overlapping impacts in different biosphere properties (e.g. flooding, yields) will not only claim additional capacity to respond, but will also narrow the options to respond and develop. Regions with severest projected climate change impacts often coincide with regions of high population density and poverty rates. Science and policy need to propose ways of preparing these areas for development under climate change impacts. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The GCRP Climate Health Assessment: From Scientific Literature to Climate Health Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crimmins, A. R.; Balbus, J. M.

2016-12-01

As noted by the new report from the US GCRP, the Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment, climate change is a significant threat to the health of the American people. Despite a growing awareness of the significance of climate change in general among Americans, however, recognition of the health significance of climate change is lacking. Not only are the general public and many climate scientists relatively uninformed about the myriad health implications of climate change; health professionals, including physicians and nurses, are in need of enhanced climate literacy. This presentation will provide an overview of the new GCRP Climate Health Assessment, introducing the audience to the systems thinking that underlies the assessment of health impacts, and reviewing frameworks that tie climate and earth systems phenomena to human vulnerability and health. The impacts on health through changes in temperature, precipitation, severity of weather extremes and climate variability, and alteration of ecosystems and phenology will be explored. The process of developing the assessment report will be discussed in the context of raising climate and health literacy within the federal government.

How Should the Department of Defense Approach Environmental Security Implications of Climate Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-12-11

Atlanta: Army Environmental Policy Institute. Kleypas, J. A. 2005. Impacts of ocean acidification on coral reefs and other marine calcifiers. Report......literature review. This chapter includes an introduction to climate change, impacts to the population from sea-level rise, ocean acidification

A HYPOTHESIS-DRIVEN FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING CLIMATE INDUCED CHANGES IN COASTAL FINAL ECOSYSTEM GOODS AND SERVICES

EPA Science Inventory

Understanding how climate change will alter the availability of coastal final ecosystem goods and services (FEGS; such as food provisioning from fisheries, property protection, and recreation) has significant implications for coastal planning and the development of adaptive manag...

Untapped genetic variability in Herefords: implications for climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Global climate change (CC) has the potential to significantly alter US cattle productivity. As a result, the creation of genetic resources for a specific environment may be necessary, given that genetic-environmental interactions are present and may become more important. Molecular evaluation of a s...

Effect of historical land-use and climate change on tree-climate relationships in the upper Midwestern United States.

PubMed

Goring, Simon J; Williams, John W

2017-04-01

Contemporary forest inventory data are widely used to understand environmental controls on tree species distributions and to construct models to project forest responses to climate change, but the stability and representativeness of contemporary tree-climate relationships are poorly understood. We show that tree-climate relationships for 15 tree genera in the upper Midwestern US have significantly altered over the last two centuries due to historical land-use and climate change. Realised niches have shifted towards higher minimum temperatures and higher rainfall. A new attribution method implicates both historical climate change and land-use in these shifts, with the relative importance varying among genera and climate variables. Most climate/land-use interactions are compounding, in which historical land-use reinforces shifts in species-climate relationships toward wetter distributions, or confounding, in which land-use complicates shifts towards warmer distributions. Compounding interactions imply that contemporary-based models of species distributions may underestimate species resilience to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change on Inuit Health

PubMed Central

Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

2014-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks—one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context. PMID:24754615

Adapting to the effects of climate change on Inuit health.

PubMed

Ford, James D; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

2014-06-01

Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks-one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context.

Not just about sunburn--the ozone hole's profound effect on climate has significant implications for Southern Hemisphere ecosystems.

PubMed

Robinson, Sharon A; Erickson, David J

2015-02-01

Climate scientists have concluded that stratospheric ozone depletion has been a major driver of Southern Hemisphere climate processes since about 1980. The implications of these observed and modelled changes in climate are likely to be far more pervasive for both terrestrial and marine ecosystems than the increase in ultraviolet-B radiation due to ozone depletion; however, they have been largely overlooked in the biological literature. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of how ozone depletion has impacted Southern Hemisphere climate and highlight the relatively few documented impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Reviewing the climate literature, we present examples of how ozone depletion changes atmospheric and oceanic circulation, with an emphasis on how these alterations in the physical climate system affect Southern Hemisphere weather, especially over the summer season (December-February). These potentially include increased incidence of extreme events, resulting in costly floods, drought, wildfires and serious environmental damage. The ecosystem impacts documented so far include changes to growth rates of South American and New Zealand trees, decreased growth of Antarctic mosses and changing biodiversity in Antarctic lakes. The objective of this synthesis was to stimulate the ecological community to look beyond ultraviolet-B radiation when considering the impacts of ozone depletion. Such widespread changes in Southern Hemisphere climate are likely to have had as much or more impact on natural ecosystems and food production over the past few decades, than the increased ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling climate change effects on runoff and soil erosion in southeastern Arizona rangelands and implications for mitigation with rangeland conservation practices

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is expected to impact runoff and soil erosion on rangelands in the southwestern United States. This study was done to evaluate the potential impacts of precipitation changes on soil erosion and surface runoff in southeastern Arizona using seven GCM models with three emission scenarios...

Changes in forest biomass and tree species distribution under climate change in the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

2016-01-01

Context. Forests in the northeastern United States are currently in early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Climate change will affect forest distribution and structure and have important implications for biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and human well-being. Objective. We addressed how aboveground biomass (AGB) and...

Long-range climate impacts on crop yield and the implications of enacting global carbon mitigation policies

EPA Science Inventory

Research on climate impacts and agriculture over the past two decades has applied simulation models at a range of scales and future climate scenarios, finding that crop growth and yield responds to changing climate conditions, and that the impacts are regional and highly depende...

How issue frames shape beliefs about the importance of climate change policy across ideological and partisan groups

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

We use an experiment to examine whether the way in which climate change is framed affects individuals’ beliefs about its importance as a policy issue. We employ frames that emphasize national security, human rights, and environmental importance about the consequences of climate change. We find no evidence that issue frames have an overall effect on opinions about the importance of climate change policy. We do find some evidence that the effect of issue frames varies across ideological and partisan groups. Most notably, issue frames can lead Republicans and those on the political right to view climate change policy as less important. We conclude by discussing our findings relative to extant literature and considering the implications of our findings for those who seek to address the issue of climate change. PMID:28727842

How issue frames shape beliefs about the importance of climate change policy across ideological and partisan groups.

PubMed

Singh, Shane P; Swanson, Meili

2017-01-01

We use an experiment to examine whether the way in which climate change is framed affects individuals' beliefs about its importance as a policy issue. We employ frames that emphasize national security, human rights, and environmental importance about the consequences of climate change. We find no evidence that issue frames have an overall effect on opinions about the importance of climate change policy. We do find some evidence that the effect of issue frames varies across ideological and partisan groups. Most notably, issue frames can lead Republicans and those on the political right to view climate change policy as less important. We conclude by discussing our findings relative to extant literature and considering the implications of our findings for those who seek to address the issue of climate change.

Moving beyond a knowledge deficit perspective to understand climate action by youth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busch, K. C.

2016-12-01

This presentation reports on an experiment testing two framings of uncertainty on students' intent to take action to mitigate climate change. Additionally, to explore possible mechanisms involved in the choice of taking mitigating action, several factors highlighted within behavior theory literature were measured to create a theoretical model for youth's choice to take mitigating action. The factors explored were: knowledge, certainty, affect, efficacy, and social norms. The experiment was conducted with 453 middle and high school students within the Bay Area. Findings indicated that these students did hold a basic understanding of the causes and effects of climate change. They were worried and felt negatively about the topic. They felt somewhat efficacious about their personal ability to mitigate climate change. The students reported that they associated with people who were more likely to think climate change was real and caused by humans. Students also reported that they often take part in private pro-environmental behaviors such as using less electricity. When asked to respond freely to a question about what think about climate change, participants described the negative effects of human-caused climate change on Earth systems at the global scale and as a current phenomenon. The results of the experiment showed that while the text portraying climate change with high uncertainty did affect student's own certainty and their perception of scientists' certainty, it did not affect behavioral intention. This result can be explained through regression analysis. It was found that efficacy and social norms were direct determinants of pro-environmental behaviors. The cognitive variables - knowledge and certainty - and the psychological variable - affect - were not significant predictors of pro-environmental behavior. The implications for this study are that while students hold basic understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, this understanding lacks personal relevance. Another implication of this study is that if we wish to have action-taking as an outcome of climate change education efforts, then the learning activities should include components to address efficacy and social norms.

Reservoir operations under climate change: Storage capacity options to mitigate risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehsani, Nima; Vörösmarty, Charles J.; Fekete, Balázs M.; Stakhiv, Eugene Z.

2017-12-01

Observed changes in precipitation patterns, rising surface temperature, increases in frequency and intensity of floods and droughts, widespread melting of ice, and reduced snow cover are some of the documented hydrologic changes associated with global climate change. Climate change is therefore expected to affect the water supply-demand balance in the Northeast United States and challenge existing water management strategies. The hydrological implications of future climate will affect the design capacity and operating characteristics of dams. The vulnerability of water resources systems to floods and droughts will increase, and the trade-offs between reservoir releases to maintain flood control storage, drought resilience, ecological flow, human water demand, and energy production should be reconsidered. We used a Neural Networks based General Reservoir Operation Scheme to estimate the implications of climate change for dams on a regional scale. This dynamic daily reservoir module automatically adapts to changes in climate and re-adjusts the operation of dams based on water storage level, timing, and magnitude of incoming flows. Our findings suggest that the importance of dams in providing water security in the region will increase. We create an indicator of the Effective Degree of Regulation (EDR) by dams on water resources and show that it is expected to increase, particularly during drier months of year, simply as a consequence of projected climate change. The results also indicate that increasing the size and number of dams, in addition to modifying their operations, may become necessary to offset the vulnerabilities of water resources systems to future climate uncertainties. This is the case even without considering the likely increase in future water demand, especially in the most densely populated regions of the Northeast.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health.

PubMed

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-11-07

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae.

Impacts of climate variability and future climate change on harmful algal blooms and human health

PubMed Central

Moore, Stephanie K; Trainer, Vera L; Mantua, Nathan J; Parker, Micaela S; Laws, Edward A; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2008-01-01

Anthropogenically-derived increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations have been implicated in recent climate change, and are projected to substantially impact the climate on a global scale in the future. For marine and freshwater systems, increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases are expected to increase surface temperatures, lower pH, and cause changes to vertical mixing, upwelling, precipitation, and evaporation patterns. The potential consequences of these changes for harmful algal blooms (HABs) have received relatively little attention and are not well understood. Given the apparent increase in HABs around the world and the potential for greater problems as a result of climate change and ocean acidification, substantial research is needed to evaluate the direct and indirect associations between HABs, climate change, ocean acidification, and human health. This research will require a multidisciplinary approach utilizing expertise in climatology, oceanography, biology, epidemiology, and other disciplines. We review the interactions between selected patterns of large-scale climate variability and climate change, oceanic conditions, and harmful algae. PMID:19025675

Comprehension of climate change and environmental attitudes across the lifespan.

PubMed

Degen, C; Kettner, S E; Fischer, H; Lohse, J; Funke, J; Schwieren, C; Goeschl, T; Schröder, J

2014-08-01

Given the coincidence of the demographic change and climate change in the upcoming decades the aging voter gains increasing importance in climate change mitigation and adaptation processes. It is generally assumed that information status and comprehension of complex processes underlying climate change are prerequisites for adopting pro-environmental attitudes and taking pro-environmental actions. In a cross-sectional study, we investigated in how far (1) environmental knowledge and comprehension of feedback processes underlying climate change and (2) pro-environmental attitudes change as a function of age. Our sample consisted of 92 participants aged 25-75 years (mean age 49.4 years, SD 17.0). Age was negatively related to comprehension of system structures inherent to climate change, but positively associated with level of fear of consequences and anxiousness towards climate change. No significant relations were found between environmental knowledge and pro-environmental attitude. These results indicate that, albeit understanding of relevant structures of the climate system is less present in older age, age is not a limiting factor for being engaged in the complex dilemma of climate change. Results bear implications for the communication of climate change and pro-environmental actions in aging societies.

Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment Programs and Approaches to Account for Effects (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

This draft report uses biological data collected by four states in wadeable rivers and streams to examine the components of state and tribal bioassessment and biomonitoring programs that may be vulnerable to climate change. The study investigates the potential to identify biologi...

The complex relationship between climate and sugar maple health: Climate change implications in Vermont for a key northern hardwood species

Treesearch

Evan M. Oswald; Jennifer Pontius; Shelly A. Rayback; Paul G. Schaberg; Sandra H. Wilmot; Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux

2018-01-01

This study compared 141 ecologically relevant climate metrics to field assessments of sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) canopy condition across Vermont, USA from 1988 to 2012. After removing the influence of disturbance events during this time period to isolate the impact of climate, we identified five climate metrics that were significantly...

Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam: Implications for Downstream Riparian Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Block, P. J.; Hammond, M.; King, A.

2013-12-01

Ethiopia has begun seriously developing their significant hydropower potential by launching construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile River to facilitate local and regional growth. Although this has required substantial planning on Ethiopia's part, no policy dictating the reservoir filling rate strategy has been publicly issued. This filling stage will have clear implications on downstream flows in Sudan and Egypt, complicated by evaporative losses, climate variability, and climate change. In this study, various filling policies and future climate states are simultaneously explored to infer potential streamflow reductions at Lake Nasser, providing regional decision-makers with a set of plausible, justifiable, and comparable outcomes. Schematic of the model framework Box plots of 2017-2032 percent change in annual average streamflow at Lake Nasser for each filling policy constructed from the 100 time-series and weighted precipitation changes. All values are relative to the no dam policy and no changes to future precipitation.

Climate change and Australia's healthcare system - risks, research and responses.

PubMed

Weaver, Haylee J; Blashki, Grant A; Capon, Anthony G; McMichael, Anthony J

2010-11-01

Climate change will affect human health, mostly adversely, resulting in a greater burden on the health care system, in addition to any other coexistent increases in demand (e.g. from Australia's increasingly ageing population). Understanding the extent to which health is likely to be affected by climate change will enable policy makers and practitioners to prepare for changing demands on the health care system. This will require prioritisation of key research questions and building research capacity in the field. There is an urgent need to better understand the implications of climate change for the distribution and prevalence of diseases, disaster preparedness and multidisciplinary service planning. Research is needed to understand the relationship of climate change to health promotion, policy evaluation and strategic financing of health services. Training of health care professionals about climate change and its effects will also be important in meeting long-term workforce demands.

The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment.

PubMed

Moss, Richard H; Edmonds, Jae A; Hibbard, Kathy A; Manning, Martin R; Rose, Steven K; van Vuuren, Detlef P; Carter, Timothy R; Emori, Seita; Kainuma, Mikiko; Kram, Tom; Meehl, Gerald A; Mitchell, John F B; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Riahi, Keywan; Smith, Steven J; Stouffer, Ronald J; Thomson, Allison M; Weyant, John P; Wilbanks, Thomas J

2010-02-11

Advances in the science and observation of climate change are providing a clearer understanding of the inherent variability of Earth's climate system and its likely response to human and natural influences. The implications of climate change for the environment and society will depend not only on the response of the Earth system to changes in radiative forcings, but also on how humankind responds through changes in technology, economies, lifestyle and policy. Extensive uncertainties exist in future forcings of and responses to climate change, necessitating the use of scenarios of the future to explore the potential consequences of different response options. To date, such scenarios have not adequately examined crucial possibilities, such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, and have relied on research processes that slowed the exchange of information among physical, biological and social scientists. Here we describe a new process for creating plausible scenarios to investigate some of the most challenging and important questions about climate change confronting the global community.

Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal).

PubMed

Rafael, S; Martins, H; Marta-Almeida, M; Sá, E; Coelho, S; Rocha, A; Borrego, C; Lopes, M

2017-05-01

Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were applied for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that for the future climate conditions, the incoming shortwave radiation will increase by around 10%, the sensible heat flux around 40% and the net storage heat flux around 35%. In contrast, the latent heat flux will decrease about 20%. The changes in the magnitude of the different fluxes result in an increase of the net all-wave radiation by 15%. The implications of the changes of the energy balance on the meteorological variables are discussed, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Should the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change recognize climate migrants?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gibb, Christine; Ford, James

2012-12-01

Climate change is expected to increase migration flows, especially from socially and environmentally vulnerable populations. These ‘climate migrants’ do not have any official protection under international law, which has implications for the human security of migrants. This work argues that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) can and should recognize climate migrants, and is the most relevant international framework for doing so. While not legally binding, the acknowledgment of climate displacement, migration and planned relocation issues in the UNFCCC’s Cancun Adaptation Framework indicates a willingness to address the issue through an adaptation lens. Herein, the paper proposes a framework for setting the institutional groundwork for recognizing climate migrants, focusing on the most vulnerable, promoting targeted research and policy agendas, and situating policies within a comprehensive strategy.

The Effects of Climate Change on Cardiac Health.

PubMed

De Blois, Jonathan; Kjellstrom, Tord; Agewall, Stefan; Ezekowitz, Justin A; Armstrong, Paul W; Atar, Dan

2015-01-01

The earth's climate is changing and increasing ambient heat levels are emerging in large areas of the world. An important cause of this change is the anthropogenic emission of greenhouse gases. Climate changes have a variety of negative effects on health, including cardiac health. People with pre-existing medical conditions such as cardiovascular disease (including heart failure), people carrying out physically demanding work and the elderly are particularly vulnerable. This review evaluates the evidence base for the cardiac health consequences of climate conditions, with particular reference to increasing heat exposure, and it also explores the potential further implications. © 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework.

PubMed

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

2018-03-16

Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

PubMed Central

Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

2018-01-01

Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies. PMID:29547592

Climate change. A global threat to cardiopulmonary health.

PubMed

Rice, Mary B; Thurston, George D; Balmes, John R; Pinkerton, Kent E

2014-03-01

Recent changes in the global climate system have resulted in excess mortality and morbidity, particularly among susceptible individuals with preexisting cardiopulmonary disease. These weather patterns are projected to continue and intensify as a result of rising CO2 levels, according to the most recent projections by climate scientists. In this Pulmonary Perspective, motivated by the American Thoracic Society Committees on Environmental Health Policy and International Health, we review the global human health consequences of projected changes in climate for which there is a high level of confidence and scientific evidence of health effects, with a focus on cardiopulmonary health. We discuss how many of the climate-related health effects will disproportionally affect people from economically disadvantaged parts of the world, who contribute relatively little to CO2 emissions. Last, we discuss the financial implications of climate change solutions from a public health perspective and argue for a harmonized approach to clean air and climate change policies.

Searching for climate-conflict links

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendrix, Cullen S.

2018-03-01

Environmental scarcity caused by climate change has been implicated as a driver of violent conflict. Now, research shows significant bias in the regions analysed for climate-conflict links. This may limit understanding of the socioeconomic and political conditions in which such conflict occurs, and how these conflicts could be prevented.

Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change.

PubMed

Tao, Fulu; Yokozawa, Masayuki; Hayashi, Yousay; Lin, Erda

2003-06-01

The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.

Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2009-10-01

Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to themore » economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.« less

Impact of Climate Change on Air Quality and Public Health in Urban Areas.

PubMed

Hassan, Noor Artika; Hashim, Zailina; Hashim, Jamal Hisham

2016-03-01

This review discusses how climate undergo changes and the effect of climate change on air quality as well as public health. It also covers the inter relationship between climate and air quality. The air quality discussed here are in relation to the 5 criteria pollutants; ozone (O3), carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter (PM). Urban air pollution is the main concern due to higher anthropogenic activities in urban areas. The implications on health are also discussed. Mitigating measures are presented with the final conclusion. © 2015 APJPH.

An Evidence-Based Public Health Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

PubMed Central

Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E.; Raab, Kristin K.; Luber, George

2014-01-01

Background: Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Objectives: Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. Methods: We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. Discussion: A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. Conclusions: The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders. Citation: Hess JJ, Eidson M, Tlumak JE, Raab KK, Luber G. 2014. An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation. Environ Health Perspect 122:1177–1186; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307396 PMID:25003495

A large ozone-circulation feedback and its implications for global warming assessments.

PubMed

Nowack, Peer J; Abraham, N Luke; Maycock, Amanda C; Braesicke, Peter; Gregory, Jonathan M; Joshi, Manoj M; Osprey, Annette; Pyle, John A

2015-01-01

State-of-the-art climate models now include more climate processes which are simulated at higher spatial resolution than ever 1 . Nevertheless, some processes, such as atmospheric chemical feedbacks, are still computationally expensive and are often ignored in climate simulations 1,2 . Here we present evidence that how stratospheric ozone is represented in climate models can have a first order impact on estimates of effective climate sensitivity. Using a comprehensive atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we find an increase in global mean surface warming of around 1°C (~20%) after 75 years when ozone is prescribed at pre-industrial levels compared with when it is allowed to evolve self-consistently in response to an abrupt 4×CO 2 forcing. The difference is primarily attributed to changes in longwave radiative feedbacks associated with circulation-driven decreases in tropical lower stratospheric ozone and related stratospheric water vapour and cirrus cloud changes. This has important implications for global model intercomparison studies 1,2 in which participating models often use simplified treatments of atmospheric composition changes that are neither consistent with the specified greenhouse gas forcing scenario nor with the associated atmospheric circulation feedbacks 3-5 .

Farmers and Climate Change: A Cross-National Comparison of Beliefs and Risk Perceptions in High-Income Countries.

PubMed

Prokopy, Linda S; Arbuckle, J G; Barnes, Andrew P; Haden, V R; Hogan, Anthony; Niles, Meredith T; Tyndall, John

2015-08-01

Climate change has serious implications for the agricultural industry-both in terms of the need to adapt to a changing climate and to modify practices to mitigate for the impacts of climate change. In high-income countries where farming tends to be very intensive and large scale, it is important to understand farmers' beliefs and concerns about climate change in order to develop appropriate policies and communication strategies. Looking across six study sites-Scotland, Midwestern United States, California, Australia, and two locations in New Zealand-this paper finds that over half of farmers in each location believe that climate change is occurring. However, there is a wide range of beliefs regarding the anthropogenic nature of climate change; only in Australia do a majority of farmers believe that climate change is anthropogenic. In all locations, a majority of farmers believe that climate change is not a threat to local agriculture. The different policy contexts and existing impacts from climate change are discussed as possible reasons for the variation in beliefs. This study compared varying surveys from the different locations and concludes that survey research on farmers and climate change in diverse locations should strive to include common questions to facilitate comparisons.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Strand, Linn B; Tong, Shilu; Aird, Rosemary; McRae, David

2010-07-28

There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making.

Vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change: the views of government stakeholders and other specialists in Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background There is overwhelming scientific evidence that human activities have changed and will continue to change the climate of the Earth. Eco-environmental health, which refers to the interdependencies between ecological systems and population health and well-being, is likely to be significantly influenced by climate change. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions from government stakeholders and other relevant specialists about the threat of climate change, their capacity to deal with it, and how to develop and implement a framework for assessing vulnerability of eco-environmental health to climate change. Methods Two focus groups were conducted in Brisbane, Australia with representatives from relevant government agencies, non-governmental organisations, and the industry sector (n = 15) involved in the discussions. The participants were specialists on climate change and public health from governmental agencies, industry, and non-governmental organisations in South-East Queensland. Results The specialists perceived climate change to be a threat to eco-environmental health and had substantial knowledge about possible implications and impacts. A range of different methods for assessing vulnerability were suggested by the participants and the complexity of assessment when dealing with multiple hazards was acknowledged. Identified factors influencing vulnerability were perceived to be of a social, physical and/or economic nature. They included population growth, the ageing population with associated declines in general health and changes in the vulnerability of particular geographical areas due to for example, increased coastal development, and financial stress. Education, inter-sectoral collaboration, emergency management (e.g. development of early warning systems), and social networks were all emphasised as a basis for adapting to climate change. To develop a framework, different approaches were discussed for assessing eco-environmental health vulnerability, including literature reviews to examine the components of vulnerability such as natural hazard risk and exposure and to investigate already existing frameworks for assessing vulnerability. Conclusion The study has addressed some important questions in regard to government stakeholders and other specialists' views on the threat of climate change and its potential impacts on eco-environmental health. These findings may have implications in climate change and public health decision-making. PMID:20663227

Implications of land use change in tropical West Africa under global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brücher, Tim; Claussen, Martin

2015-04-01

Northern Africa, and the Sahel in particular, are highly vulnerable to climate change, due to strong exposure to increasing temperature, precipitation variability, and population growth. A major link between climate and humans in this region is land use and associated land cover change, mainly where subsistence farming prevails. But how strongly does climate change affect land use and how strongly does land use feeds back into climate change? To which extent may climate-induced water, food and wood shortages exacerbate conflict potential and lead changes in land use and to migration? Estimates of possible changes in African climate vary among the Earth System Models participating in the recent Coupled Model Intercomparison (CMIP5) exercise, except for the region adjacent to the Mediterranean Sea, where a significant decrease of precipitation emerges. While all models agree in a strong temperature increase, rainfall uncertainties for most parts of the Sahara, Sahel, and Sudan are higher. Here we present results of complementary experiments based on extreme and idealized land use change scenarios within a future climate.. We use the MPI-ESM forced with a strong green house gas scenario (RCP8.5) and apply an additional land use forcing by varying largely the intensity and kind of agricultural practice. By these transient experiments (until 2100) we elaborate the additional impact on climate due to strong land use forcing. However, the differences are mostly insignificant. The greenhouse gas caused temperature increase and the high variability in the West African Monsoon rainfall superposes the minor changes in climate due to land use. While simulated climate key variables like precipitation and temperature are not distinguishable from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 results, an additional greening is simulated, when crops are demanded. Crops have lower water usage than pastureland has. This benefits available soil water, which is taken up by the natural vegetation and makes it more productive. Given the limitations of an ESM, the findings of our study show that changes in the kind and intensity of land use have minor effects on the climate. Consequently, implications of extreme land use on e.g. human security, conflict or migration can be investigated in offline simulations.

Global climate change implications for coastal and offshore oil and gas development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, V.

2011-01-01

The discussion and debate about climate change and oil and gas resource development has generally focused on how fossil fuel use affects the Earth's climate. This paper explores how the changing climate is likely to affect oil and gas operations in low-lying coastal areas and the outer continental shelf. Oil and gas production in these regions comprises a large sector of the economies of many energy producing nations. Six key climate change drivers in coastal and marine regions are characterized with respect to oil and gas development: changes in carbon dioxide levels and ocean acidity, air and water temperature, precipitation patterns, the rate of sea level rise, storm intensity, and wave regime. These key drivers have the potential to independently and cumulatively affect coastal and offshore oil and gas exploration, production, and transportation, and several impacts of climate change have already been observed in North America. ?? 2011.

Assessing climate change beliefs: Response effects of question wording and response alternatives.

PubMed

Greenhill, Murni; Leviston, Zoe; Leonard, Rosemary; Walker, Iain

2014-11-01

To date, there is no 'gold standard' on how to best measure public climate change beliefs. We report a study (N = 897) testing four measures of climate change causation beliefs, drawn from four sources: the CSIRO, Griffith University, the Gallup poll, and the Newspoll. We found that question wording influences the outcome of beliefs reported. Questions that did not allow respondents to choose the option of believing in an equal mix of natural and anthropogenic climate change obtained different results to those that included the option. Age and belief groups were found to be important predictors of how consistent people were in reporting their beliefs. Response consistency gave some support to past findings suggesting climate change beliefs reflect something deeper in the individual belief system. Each belief question was assessed against five criterion variables commonly used in climate change literature. Implications for future studies are discussed. © The Author(s) 2013.

Gender and climate change in the Indian Himalayas: global threats, local vulnerabilities, and livelihood diversification at the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ogra, M. V.; Badola, R.

2015-08-01

Global climate change has numerous implications for members of mountain communities who feel the impacts in both physical and social dimensions. In the western Himalayas of India, a majority of residents maintain a livelihood strategy that includes a combination of subsistence or small-scale agriculture, livestock rearing, seasonal or long-term migration, and localized natural resource extraction. While warming temperatures, irregular patterns of precipitation and snowmelt, and changing biological systems present challenges to the viability of these traditional livelihood portfolios in general, we find that climate change is also undermining local communities' livelihood assets in gender-specific ways. In this paper, we present a case study from the Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (Uttarakhand, India) that both outlines the implications of climate change for women farmers in the area and highlights the potential for ecotourism (as a form of livelihood diversification) to strengthen both key livelihood assets of women and local communities' adaptive capacity more broadly. The paper intentionally employs a categorical focus on women but also addresses issues of inter-group and gender diversity. With this special issue in mind, suggestions for related research are proposed for consideration by climate scientists and social systems and/or policy modelers seeking to support gender justice through socially transformative perspectives and frameworks.

Climate Change Effects on Respiratory Health: Implications for Nursing.

PubMed

George, Maureen; Bruzzese, Jean-Marie; Matura, Lea Ann

2017-11-01

Greenhouse gases are driving climate change. This article explores the adverse health effects of climate change on a particularly vulnerable population: children and adults with respiratory conditions. This review provides a general overview of the effects of increasing temperatures, extreme weather, desertification, and flooding on asthma, chronic obstructive lung disease, and respiratory infections. We offer suggestions for future research to better understand climate change hazards, policies to support prevention and mitigation efforts targeting climate change, and clinical actions to reduce individual risk. Climate change produces a number of changes to the natural and built environments that may potentially increase respiratory disease prevalence, morbidity, and mortality. Nurses might consider focusing their research efforts on reducing the effects of greenhouse gases and in directing policy to mitigate the harmful effects of climate change. Nurses can also continue to direct educational and clinical actions to reduce risks for all populations, but most importantly, for our most vulnerable groups. While advancements have been made in understanding the impact of climate change on respiratory health, nurses can play an important role in reducing the deleterious effects of climate change. This will require a multipronged approach of research, policy, and clinical action. © 2017 Sigma Theta Tau International.

Convergence of agricultural intensification and climate change in the midwestern United States: Implications for soil and water conservation

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Society faces substantial challenges to expand food production while adapting to climatic changes and ensuring ecosystem services are maintained. A convergence of these issues is occurring in the Midwestern United States, i.e., the ‘cornbelt’ region that provides substantial grain supplies to world ...

Global Climate Change Pathfinder: A Guide to Information Resources. Second Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pintozzi, Chestalene; Jones, Douglas E.

This pathfinder is a guide to scientific and technical aspects of global climate change including meteorological and climatological aspects; biological, agricultural, and public policy implications; and the chemical processes involved. Sources are arranged by type of publication and include: (1) 10 reference sources; (2) 12 bibliographies; (3) 44…

Vulnerability of amphibians to climate change: implications for rangeland management

Treesearch

Karen E. Bagne; Deborah M. Finch; Megan M. Friggens

2011-01-01

Many amphibian populations have declined drastically in recent years due to a large number of factors including the emerging threat of climate change (Wake 2007). Rangelands provide important habitat for amphibians. In addition to natural wetlands, stock tanks and other artificial water catchments provide habitat for many amphibian species (Euliss et al. 2004).

Student-Led Campus Climate Change Initiatives in Canada

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Helferty, Anjali; Clarke, Amelia

2009-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive list of student-led, campus-based climate change initiatives, and offers details on many specific cases. The paper also documents the roles students have played and considers the larger youth engagement implications. Many of these initiatives can be replicated elsewhere, thereby…

Climate change and stream temperature projections in the Columbia River Basin: biological implications of spatial variation in hydrologic drivers

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Water temperature is a primary physical factor affecting aquatic organisms. Assessment of suitable thermal habitat in freshwater systems is critical for predicting aquatic species responses to changes in climate and for guiding adaptation strategies. We use a hydrologic model coupled with a stream t...

Sea-level rise caused by climate change and its implications for society.

PubMed

Mimura, Nobuo

2013-01-01

Sea-level rise is a major effect of climate change. It has drawn international attention, because higher sea levels in the future would cause serious impacts in various parts of the world. There are questions associated with sea-level rise which science needs to answer. To what extent did climate change contribute to sea-level rise in the past? How much will global mean sea level increase in the future? How serious are the impacts of the anticipated sea-level rise likely to be, and can human society respond to them? This paper aims to answer these questions through a comprehensive review of the relevant literature. First, the present status of observed sea-level rise, analyses of its causes, and future projections are summarized. Then the impacts are examined along with other consequences of climate change, from both global and Japanese perspectives. Finally, responses to adverse impacts will be discussed in order to clarify the implications of the sea-level rise issue for human society.(Communicated by Kiyoshi HORIKAWA, M.J.A.).

Diarrheal Diseases and Climate Change in Cambodia.

PubMed

McIver, Lachlan J; Imai, Chisato; Buettner, Petra G; Gager, Paul; Chan, Vibol S; Hashizume, Masahiro; Iddings, Steven N; Kol, Hero; Raingsey, Piseth P; Lyne, K

2016-10-01

The DRIP-SWICCH (Developing Research and Innovative Policies Specific to the Water-related Impacts of Climate Change on Health) project aimed to increase the resilience of Cambodian communities to the health risks posed by climate change-related impacts on water. This article follows a review of climate change and water-related diseases in Cambodia and presents the results of a time series analysis of monthly weather and diarrheal disease data for 11 provinces. In addition, correlations of diarrheal disease incidence with selected demographic, socioeconomic, and water and sanitation indicators are described, with results suggesting education and literacy may be most protective against disease. The potential impact of climate change on the burden of diarrheal disease in Cambodia is considered, along with the implications of these findings for health systems adaptation.

The effects of climate sensitivity and carbon cycle interactions on mitigation policy stringency

EPA Science Inventory

Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect o...

Why do some people do "more" to mitigate climate change than others? Exploring heterogeneity in psycho-social associations.

PubMed

Ortega-Egea, José Manuel; García-de-Frutos, Nieves; Antolín-López, Raquel

2014-01-01

The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized--and differentiated from common mitigation behavior--as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change--but not in motivational or socio-demographic links--with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries.

Potential Implications of Approaches to Climate Change on the Clean Water Rule Definition of "Waters of the United States".

PubMed

Faust, Derek R; Moore, Matthew T; Emison, Gerald Andrews; Rush, Scott A

2016-05-01

The 1972 Clean Water Act was passed to protect chemical, physical, and biological integrity of United States' waters. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers codified a new "waters of the United States" rule on June 29, 2015, because several Supreme Court case decisions caused confusion with the existing rule. Climate change could affect this rule through connectivity between groundwater and surface waters; floodplain waters and the 100-year floodplain; changes in jurisdictional status; and sea level rise on coastal ecosystems. Four approaches are discussed for handling these implications: (1) "Wait and see"; (2) changes to the rule; (3) use guidance documents; (4) Congress statutorily defining "waters of the United States." The approach chosen should be legally defensible and achieved in a timely fashion to provide protection to "waters of the United States" in proactive consideration of scientifically documented effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems.

Mainstreaming Climate Change Into Geosciences Curriculum of Tertiary Educational Systems in Ghana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyarko, B. K.

2015-12-01

The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana and also juxtapose with the WASCAL graduate school curriculum. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognize that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to make Climate Change education practical.

Climate Change and Thawing Permafrost in Two Iñupiaq Communities of Alaska's Arctic: Observations, Implications, and Resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, A.; Kofinas, G.

2013-12-01

For thousands of years the Iñupiat of northern Alaska have relied on ecosystems underlain by permafrost for material and cultural resources. As permafrost thaws across the Arctic, these social-ecological systems are changing rapidly. Community-based research and extensive local knowledge of Iñupiaq villagers offer unique and valuable contributions to understanding permafrost change and its implications for humans. We partnered with two Iñupiaq communities in Alaska's Arctic to investigate current and potential effects of thawing permafrost on social-ecological systems. Anaktuvuk Pass is situated on thaw-stable consolidated gravel in the Brooks Range, while Selawik rests on ice-rich permafrost in Beringia lowland tundra. Using the transdisciplinary approach of resilience theory and mixed geophysical and ethnographic methods, we measured active layer thaw depths and documented local knowledge about climate and permafrost change. Thaw depths were greater overall in Selawik. Residents of both communities reported a variety of changes in surface features, hydrology, weather, flora, and fauna that they attribute to thawing permafrost and / or climate change. Overall, Selawik residents described more numerous and extreme examples of such changes, expressed higher degrees of certainty that change is occurring, and anticipated more significant and negative implications for their way of life than did residents of Anaktuvuk Pass. Of the two villages, Selawik faces greater and more immediate challenges to the resilience of its social-ecological system as permafrost thaws.

Relevance of Regional Hydro-Climatic Projection Data for Hydrodynamics and Water Quality Modelling of the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldenberg, R.; Vigouroux, G.; Chen, Y.; Bring, A.; Kalantari, Z.; Prieto, C.; Destouni, G.

2017-12-01

The Baltic Sea, located in Northern Europe, is one of the world's largest body of brackish water, enclosed and surrounded by nine different countries. The magnitude of climate change may be particularly large in northern regions, and identifying its impacts on vulnerable inland waters and their runoff and nutrient loading to the Baltic Sea is an important and complex task. Exploration of such hydro-climatic impacts is needed to understand potential future changes in physical, ecological and water quality conditions in the regional coastal and marine waters. In this study, we investigate hydro-climatic changes and impacts on the Baltic Sea by synthesizing multi-model climate projection data from the CORDEX regional downscaling initiative (EURO- and Arctic- CORDEX domains, http://www.cordex.org/). We identify key hydro-climatic variable outputs of these models and assess model performance with regard to their projected temporal and spatial change behavior and impacts on different scales and coastal-marine parts, up to the whole Baltic Sea. Model spreading, robustness and impact implications for the Baltic Sea system are investigated for and through further use in simulations of coastal-marine hydrodynamics and water quality based on these key output variables and their change projections. Climate model robustness in this context is assessed by inter-model spreading analysis and observation data comparisons, while projected change implications are assessed by forcing of linked hydrodynamic and water quality modeling of the Baltic Sea based on relevant hydro-climatic outputs for inland water runoff and waterborne nutrient loading to the Baltic sea, as well as for conditions in the sea itself. This focused synthesis and analysis of hydro-climatically relevant output data of regional climate models facilitates assessment of reliability and uncertainty in projections of driver-impact changes of key importance for Baltic Sea physical, water quality and ecological conditions and their future evolution.

Vulnerabilities of macrophytes distribution due to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, Kaizar; Yadav, Sarita; Quaik, Shlrene; Pant, Gaurav; Maruthi, A. Y.; Ismail, Norli

2017-08-01

The rise in the earth's surface and water temperature is part of the effect of climatic change that has been observed for the last decade. The rates of climate change are unprecedented, and biological responses to these changes have also been prominent in all levels of species, communities and ecosystems. Aquatic-terrestrial ecotones are vulnerable to climate change, and degradation of the emergent aquatic macrophyte zone would have contributed severe ecological consequences for freshwater, wetland and terrestrial ecosystems. Most researches on climate change effects on biodiversity are contemplating on the terrestrial realm, and considerable changes in terrestrial biodiversity and species' distributions have been detected in response to climate change. This is unfortunate, given the importance of aquatic systems for providing ecosystem goods and services. Thus, if researchers were able to identify early-warning indicators of anthropogenic environmental changes on aquatic species, communities and ecosystems, it would certainly help to manage and conserve these systems in a sustainable way. One of such early-warning indicators concerns the expansion of emergent macrophytes in aquatic-terrestrial ecotones. Hence, this review highlights the impact of climatic changes towards aquatic macrophytes and their possible environmental implications.

Climate Sensitivity Runs and Regional Hydrologic Modeling for Predicting the Response of the Greater Florida Everglades Ecosystem to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Obeysekera, Jayantha; Barnes, Jenifer; Nungesser, Martha

2015-04-01

It is important to understand the vulnerability of the water management system in south Florida and to determine the resilience and robustness of greater Everglades restoration plans under future climate change. The current climate models, at both global and regional scales, are not ready to deliver specific climatic datasets for water resources investigations involving future plans and therefore a scenario based approach was adopted for this first study in restoration planning. We focused on the general implications of potential changes in future temperature and associated changes in evapotranspiration, precipitation, and sea levels at the regional boundary. From these, we developed a set of six climate and sea level scenarios, used them to simulate the hydrologic response of the greater Everglades region including agricultural, urban, and natural areas, and compared the results to those from a base run of current conditions. The scenarios included a 1.5 °C increase in temperature, ±10 % change in precipitation, and a 0.46 m (1.5 feet) increase in sea level for the 50-year planning horizon. The results suggested that, depending on the rainfall and temperature scenario, there would be significant changes in water budgets, ecosystem performance, and in water supply demands met. The increased sea level scenarios also show that the ground water levels would increase significantly with associated implications for flood protection in the urbanized areas of southeastern Florida.

Implications of Climate Change for State Bioassessment ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This draft report uses biological data collected by four states in wadeable rivers and streams to examine the components of state and tribal bioassessment and biomonitoring programs that may be vulnerable to climate change. The study investigates the potential to identify biological response signals to climate change within existing bioassessment data sets; analyzes how biological responses can be categorized and interpreted; and assesses how they may influence decision-making processes. The analyses suggest that several biological indicators may be used to detect climate change effects and such indicators can be used by state bioassessment programs to document changes at high-quality reference sites. The study investigates the potential to identify biological response signals to climate change within existing bioassessment data sets; analyzes how biological responses can be categorized and interpreted; and assesses how they may influence decision-making processes.

Quantification and mapping of urban fluxes under climate change: Application of WRF-SUEWS model to Greater Porto area (Portugal)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rafael, S., E-mail: sandra.rafael@ua.pt

Climate change and the growth of urban populations are two of the main challenges facing Europe today. These issues are linked as climate change results in serious challenges for cities. Recent attention has focused on how urban surface-atmosphere exchanges of heat and water will be affected by climate change and the implications for urban planning and sustainability. In this study energy fluxes for Greater Porto area, Portugal, were estimated and the influence of the projected climate change evaluated. To accomplish this, the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) and the Surface Urban Energy and Water Balance Scheme (SUEWS) were appliedmore » for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986–2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046–2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that for the future climate conditions, the incoming shortwave radiation will increase by around 10%, the sensible heat flux around 40% and the net storage heat flux around 35%. In contrast, the latent heat flux will decrease about 20%. The changes in the magnitude of the different fluxes result in an increase of the net all-wave radiation by 15%. The implications of the changes of the energy balance on the meteorological variables are discussed, particularly in terms of temperature and precipitation. - Highlights: • Assessment of energy fluxes behaviour under past period and medium-term climate change projection. • Evaluation of climate change at urban scale. • Meteorological variables alters the partitioning of the energy fluxes. • Changes in the partition of the annual energy balance are found between the two analysed periods. • Increase in the magnitude of sensible and storage heat fluxes.« less

Social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon.

PubMed

Brondízio, Eduardo S; de Lima, Ana C B; Schramski, Sam; Adams, Cristina

2016-07-01

The Amazon region has been part of climate change debates for decades, yet attention to its social and health dimensions has been limited. This paper assesses literature on the social and health dimensions of climate change in the Amazon. A conceptual framework underscores multiple stresses and exposures created by interactions between climate change and local social-environmental conditions. Using the Thomson-Reuter Web of Science, this study bibliometrically assessed the overall literature on climate change in the Amazon, including Physical Sciences, Social Sciences, Anthropology, Environmental Science/Ecology and Public, Environmental/Occupational Health. From this assessment, a relevant sub-sample was selected and complemented with literature from the Brazilian database SciELO. This sample discusses three dimensions of climate change impacts in the region: livelihood changes, vector-borne diseases and microbial proliferation, and respiratory diseases. This analysis elucidates imbalance and disconnect between ecological, physical and social and health dimensions of climate change and between continental and regional climate analysis, and sub-regional and local levels. Work on the social and health implications of climate change in the Amazon falls significantly behind other research areas, limiting reliable information for analytical models and for Amazonian policy-makers and society at large. Collaborative research is called for.

Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems.

PubMed

Hewitt, Judi E; Ellis, Joanne I; Thrush, Simon F

2016-08-01

Global climate change will undoubtedly be a pressure on coastal marine ecosystems, affecting not only species distributions and physiology but also ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, the environmental variables that may drive ecological responses to climate change include temperature, wave energy, upwelling events and freshwater inputs, and all act and interact at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. To date, we have a poor understanding of how climate-related environmental changes may affect coastal marine ecosystems or which environmental variables are likely to produce priority effects. Here we use time series data (17 years) of coastal benthic macrofauna to investigate responses to a range of climate-influenced variables including sea-surface temperature, southern oscillation indices (SOI, Z4), wind-wave exposure, freshwater inputs and rainfall. We investigate responses from the abundances of individual species to abundances of functional traits and test whether species that are near the edge of their tolerance to another stressor (in this case sedimentation) may exhibit stronger responses. The responses we observed were all nonlinear and some exhibited thresholds. While temperature was most frequently an important predictor, wave exposure and ENSO-related variables were also frequently important and most ecological variables responded to interactions between environmental variables. There were also indications that species sensitive to another stressor responded more strongly to weaker climate-related environmental change at the stressed site than the unstressed site. The observed interactions between climate variables, effects on key species or functional traits, and synergistic effects of additional anthropogenic stressors have important implications for understanding and predicting the ecological consequences of climate change to coastal ecosystems. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Implications of climate change damage for agriculture: sectoral evidence from Pakistan.

PubMed

Ahmed, Adeel; Devadason, Evelyn S; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem

2016-10-01

This paper gives a projection of the possible damage of climate change on the agriculture sector of Pakistan for the period 2012-2037, based on a dynamic approach, using an environment-related applied computable general equilibrium model (CGE). Climate damage projections depict an upward trend for the period of review and are found to be higher than the global average. Further, the damage to the agricultural sector exceeds that for the overall economy. By sector, climatic damage disproportionately affects the major and minor crops, livestock and fisheries. The largest losses following climate change, relative to the other agricultural sectors, are expected for livestock. The reason for this is the orthodox system of production for livestock, with a low adaptability to negative shocks of climate change. Overall, the findings reveal the high exposure of the agriculture sector to climate damage. In this regard, policymakers in Pakistan should take seriously the effects of climate change on agriculture and consider suitable technology to mitigate those damages.

Climate Change Planning for Military Installations: Findings and Implications

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-01

Meridional Overturning Circulation ARFORGEN Army Force Generation BASH Bird Aircraft Strike Hazard BLM Bureau of Land Management BOR Bureau of Reclamation...Cover and Land Use Change LLNL Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory MOC Meridional Overturning Circulation NASA National Aeronautics and Space...to discern effects of climate change. D.7.9 Bureau of Land Management BLM is responsible for managing much of the federal land affected by

Risky Business and the American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordon, K.; Houser, T.; Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Larsen, K.; Jina, A.; Delgado, M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Wilson, P. S.

2014-12-01

The United States faces a range of economic risks from global climate change - from increased flooding and storm damage, to climate-driven changes in crop yields and labor productivity, to heat-related strains on energy and public health systems. The Risky Business Project commissioned a groundbreaking new analysis of these and other climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) links state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face. We describe the challenge, methods, findings, and policy implications of the national risk analysis, with particular focus on methodological innovations and novel insights.

Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wolken, Jane M.; Hollingsworth, Teresa N.; Rupp, T. Scott; Chapin, Stuart III; Trainor, Sarah F.; Barrett, Tara M.; Sullivan, Patrick F.; McGuire, A. David; Euskirchen, Eugénie S.; Hennon, Paul E.; Beever, Erik A.; Conn, Jeff S.; Crone, Lisa K.; D'Amore, David V.; Fresco, Nancy; Hanley, Thomas A.; Kielland, Knut; Kruse, James J.; Patterson, Trista; Schuur, Edward A.G.; Verbyla, David L.; Yarie, John

2011-01-01

The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of climate-change impacts on all forested ecosystems of Alaska, highlighting changes in the most critical biophysical factors of each region. We developed a conceptual framework describing climate drivers, biophysical factors and types of change to illustrate how the biophysical and social subsystems of Alaskan forests interact and respond directly and indirectly to a changing climate. We then identify the regional and global implications to the climate system and associated socio-economic impacts, as presented in the current literature. Projections of temperature and precipitation suggest wildfire will continue to be the dominant biophysical factor in the Interior-boreal forest, leading to shifts from conifer- to deciduous-dominated forests. Based on existing research, projected increases in temperature in the Southcentral- and Kenai-boreal forests will likely increase the frequency and severity of insect outbreaks and associated wildfires, and increase the probability of establishment by invasive plant species. In the Coastal-temperate forest region snow and ice is regarded as the dominant biophysical factor. With continued warming, hydrologic changes related to more rapidly melting glaciers and rising elevation of the winter snowline will alter discharge in many rivers, which will have important consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystem productivity. These climate-related changes will affect plant species distribution and wildlife habitat, which have regional societal consequences, and trace-gas emissions and radiation budgets, which are globally important. Our conceptual framework facilitates assessment of current and future consequences of a changing climate, emphasizes regional differences in biophysical factors, and points to linkages that may exist but that currently lack supporting research. The framework also serves as a visual tool for resource managers and policy makers to develop regional and global management strategies and to inform policies related to climate mitigation and adaptation.

Meta-analyses of the determinants and outcomes of belief in climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hornsey, Matthew J.; Harris, Emily A.; Bain, Paul G.; Fielding, Kelly S.

2016-06-01

Recent growth in the number of studies examining belief in climate change is a positive development, but presents an ironic challenge in that it can be difficult for academics, practitioners and policy makers to keep pace. As a response to this challenge, we report on a meta-analysis of the correlates of belief in climate change. Twenty-seven variables were examined by synthesizing 25 polls and 171 academic studies across 56 nations. Two broad conclusions emerged. First, many intuitively appealing variables (such as education, sex, subjective knowledge, and experience of extreme weather events) were overshadowed in predictive power by values, ideologies, worldviews and political orientation. Second, climate change beliefs have only a small to moderate effect on the extent to which people are willing to act in climate-friendly ways. Implications for converting sceptics to the climate change cause--and for converting believers’ intentions into action--are discussed.

Examining the potential impacts of climate change on international security: EU-Africa partnership on climate change.

PubMed

Dodo, Mahamat K

2014-01-01

Climate Change like many global problems nowadays is recognized as a threat to the international security and cooperation. In theoretical terms, it is being securitized and included in the traditional security studies. Climate change and its accompanying environmental degradation are perceived to be a threat that can have incalculable consequences on the international community. The consequences are said to have more effects in small island developing nations and Africa where many States are fragile and overwhelmed with mounting challenges. In recent years, the security implications of the climate change are being addressed from national, regional and multilateral level. Against this backdrop, this paper intends to contribute to the debate on climate change and international security and present a broader perspective on the discussion. The paper will draw from the EU-Africa partnership on climate change and is structured as follows: the first part introduces the background of the international climate change policy and its securitization, the second part covers the EU-Africa relations and EU-Africa partnership on climate change, and the third part discusses the Congo Basin Forest Partnership as a concrete example of EU-Africa Partnership on Climate Change. Lastly, the paper concludes by drawing some conclusions and offers some policy perspectives and recommendations. Q54; 055; 052; 01;

Drought and increased CO2 alter floral visual and olfactory traits with context-dependent effects on pollinator visitation

Treesearch

William R. Glenny; Justin B. Runyon; Laura A. Burkle

2018-01-01

Climate change can alter species interactions essential for maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem function, such as pollination. Understanding the interactive effects of multiple abiotic conditions on floral traits and pollinator visitation are important to anticipate the implications of climate change on pollinator services. Floral visual and olfactory traits were...

Implications of global climate change for Southern forests: Can we separate fact from fiction?

Treesearch

Hermann Gucinski; Ron Neilson; Steve McNulty

2004-01-01

There is no scientific dispute regarding the existence of a greenhouse effect. There is no doubt that water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2), and methane concentrations are greenhouse gases. The data showing increases in CO2 in the atmosphere are incontrovertible. Uncertainties arise when the Earth's biological responses to climate change are to...

Engaging ranchers in market-based approaches to climate change mitigation: opportunities, challenges, and policy implications

Treesearch

Hannah Gosnell; Nicole Robinson-Maness; Susan Charnley

2011-01-01

Unsustainable rangeland management and land conversion are significant sources of greenhouse gas emissions and global warming; however, rangelands also can be managed to mitigate climate change by enhancing carbon uptake through increased plant production and biological sequestration. According to a 2000 USFS General Technical Report, there are opportunities to make...

Implications of climate change for bird conservation in the southwestern U.S

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch

2015-01-01

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax...

Strategies for reducing the impacts of surface transportation on global climate change : a synthesis of policy research and state and local mitigation strategies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-03-01

Climate change is likely to have more impact on the future of surface transportation than any other issue. The challenges and implications for surface transportation and for state DOTs include: the need to support major GHG reductions, the need to me...

Connecting to Nature at the Zoo: Implications for Responding to Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clayton, Susan; Luebke, Jerry; Saunders, Carol; Matiasek, Jennifer; Grajal, Alejandro

2014-01-01

Societal response to climate change has been inadequate. A perception that the issue is both physically and temporally remote may reduce concern; concern may also be affected by the political polarization surrounding the issue in the USA. A feeling of connection to nature or to animals may increase personal relevance, and a supportive social…

Weather, hydroregime, and breeding effort influence juvenile recruitment of anurans: implications for climate change

Treesearch

C. H. Greenberg; S. J. Zarnoch; J. D. Austin

2017-01-01

Amphibians that primarily breed in ephemeral wetlands are especially vulnerable to climate change because they rely on rainfall or temperature to initiate breeding and create suitable hydroregimes (water duration, timing, frequency, depth) for reproductive success. Hydroregime effects on reproductive success are likely to differ among species because of differences in...

Snow cover variability in a forest ecotone of the Oregon Cascades via MODIS Terra products

Treesearch

Tihomir Sabinov Kostadinov; Todd R. Lookingbill

2015-01-01

Snowcover pattern and persistence have important implications for planetary energy balance, climate sensitivity to forcings, and vegetation structure, function, and composition. Variability in snow cover within mountainous regions of the Pacific Northwest, USA is attributable to a combination of anthropogenic climate change and climate oscillations. However,...

Land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change: implications for land-based mitigation?

PubMed

Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Stevanovic, Miodrag; Müller, Christoph; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Bonsch, Markus; Dietrich, Jan Philipp; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Weindl, Isabelle; Biewald, Anne; Rolinski, Susanne

2015-06-02

Climate change has impacts on agricultural yields, which could alter cropland requirements and hence deforestation rates. Thus, land-use responses to climate change might influence terrestrial carbon stocks. Moreover, climate change could alter the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere and hence the land-based mitigation potential. We use a global spatially explicit economic land-use optimization model to (a) estimate the mitigation potential of a climate policy that provides economic incentives for carbon stock conservation and enhancement, (b) simulate land-use and carbon cycle responses to moderate climate change (RCP2.6), and (c) investigate the combined effects throughout the 21st century. The climate policy immediately stops deforestation and strongly increases afforestation, resulting in a global mitigation potential of 191 GtC in 2100. Climate change increases terrestrial carbon stocks not only directly through enhanced carbon sequestration (62 GtC by 2100) but also indirectly through less deforestation due to higher crop yields (16 GtC by 2100). However, such beneficial climate impacts increase the potential of the climate policy only marginally, as the potential is already large under static climatic conditions. In the broader picture, this study highlights the importance of land-use dynamics for modeling carbon cycle responses to climate change in integrated assessment modeling.

Climate Indicators for Energy and Infrastructure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilbanks, T. J.

2014-12-01

Two of the key categories of climate indicators are energy and infrastructure. For energy supply and use, many indicators are available for energy supply and consumption; and some indicators are available to assess implications of climate change, such as changes over time in heating and cooling days. Indicators of adaptation and adaptive capacity are more elusive. For infrastructure, which includes more than a dozen different sectors, general indicators are not available, beyond counts of major disasters and such valuable contributions as the ASCE "report cards." In this case, research is needed, for example to develop credible metrics for assessing the resilience of built infrastructures to climate change and other stresses.

Representing climate change on public service television: A case study.

PubMed

Debrett, Mary

2017-05-01

Publicly funded broadcasters with a track record in science programming would appear ideally placed to represent climate change to the lay public. Free from the constraints of vested interests and the economic imperative, public service providers are better equipped to represent the scientific, social and economic aspects of climate change than commercial media, where ownership conglomeration, corporate lobbyists and online competition have driven increasingly tabloid coverage with an emphasis on controversy. This prime-time snapshot of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation's main television channel explores how the structural/rhetorical conventions of three established public service genres - a science programme, a documentary and a live public affairs talk show - impact on the representation of anthropogenic climate change. The study findings note implications for public trust, and discuss possibilities for innovation in the interests of better public understanding of climate change.

When, not if: the inescapability of an uncertain climate future.

PubMed

Ballard, Timothy; Lewandowsky, Stephan

2015-11-28

Climate change projections necessarily involve uncertainty. Analysis of the physics and mathematics of the climate system reveals that greater uncertainty about future temperature increases is nearly always associated with greater expected damages from climate change. In contrast to those normative constraints, uncertainty is frequently cited in public discourse as a reason to delay mitigative action. This failure to understand the actual implications of uncertainty may incur notable future costs. It is therefore important to communicate uncertainty in a way that improves people's understanding of climate change risks. We examined whether responses to projections were influenced by whether the projection emphasized uncertainty in the outcome or in its time of arrival. We presented participants with statements and graphs indicating projected increases in temperature, sea levels, ocean acidification and a decrease in arctic sea ice. In the uncertain-outcome condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected outcome at a fixed time point. In the uncertain time-of-arrival condition, statements reported the upper and lower confidence bounds of the projected time of arrival for a fixed outcome. Results suggested that people perceived the threat as more serious and were more likely to encourage mitigative action in the time-uncertain condition than in the outcome-uncertain condition. This finding has implications for effectively communicating the climate change risks to policy-makers and the general public. © 2015 The Author(s).

Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

2017-12-01

We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

Nonlinear dynamics in ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkett, Virginia R.; Wilcox, Douglas A.; Stottlemyer, Robert; Barrow, Wylie; Fagre, Dan; Baron, Jill S.; Price, Jeff; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Allen, Craig D.; Peterson, David L.; Ruggerone, Greg; Doyle, Thomas

2005-01-01

Many biological, hydrological, and geological processes are interactively linked in ecosystems. These ecological phenomena normally vary within bounded ranges, but rapid, nonlinear changes to markedly different conditions can be triggered by even small differences if threshold values are exceeded. Intrinsic and extrinsic ecological thresholds can lead to effects that cascade among systems, precluding accurate modeling and prediction of system response to climate change. Ten case studies from North America illustrate how changes in climate can lead to rapid, threshold-type responses within ecological communities; the case studies also highlight the role of human activities that alter the rate or direction of system response to climate change. Understanding and anticipating nonlinear dynamics are important aspects of adaptation planning since responses of biological resources to changes in the physical climate system are not necessarily proportional and sometimes, as in the case of complex ecological systems, inherently nonlinear.

Inspiring your audience to action: insights from theory and practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, W.; Hekkers, J.; Mott, B.

2011-12-01

Findings from market research sponsored by The Ocean Project, along with many other recent studies, have revealed two troubling facts: 1. Despite increased efforts to grow climate and ocean literacy among the general public, American adult's knowledge of climate and ocean health has remained stagnant in the past decade; and 2. Knowledge and level of concern about climate change show little correlation, i.e. the people who are most concerned about climate change are not the ones who know most about the science of climate change, and vice versa. If knowledge does not lead to action among the general public, what implications does this have for those of us working for conservation? How can we motivate people to act for conservation? The Ocean Project's large-scale survey of American attitudes and values vis-à-vis ocean, climate change, and related conservation issues provides answers to many such burning questions. Our research findings reveal critical insights about what, who, and how we can communicate for maximum efficacy. In particular, youth and minorities emerged as important constituencies: not only are they more environmentally aware and/or socially conscious, they are important influencers who demonstrate greater propensity to modify their behaviors and/or engage in conservation advocacy. Our presentation will discuss the implications of these findings for strategic communication for conservation action as well as present case studies from the Monterey Bay Aquarium that support these research findings and provide insights from evaluation of two significantly different interpretive approaches to communicate about climate change-a live animal exhibit and a video-based, live-narrated auditorium program.

Threshold effects in the vegetation response to Holocene climate changes in central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Y.

2015-12-01

Understanding the response of ecosystems to past climate is critical for evaluating the impacts of future climate changes. A relatively abrupt vegetation shift in response to the late Holocene gradual climate changes has been well documented for the Sahara-Sahel ecosystem. However, whether such threshold shift is of universal significance remains to be further addressed. Here, we examine the vegetation-climate relationships in central Asia based on four newly recovered Holocene pollen records and a synthesis on previously published pollen data. The results show that the orbital-induced gradual climate trend during the Holocene led to two major abrupt vegetation shifts, and that the timings of these shifts are highly dependent of the local rainfall conditions. Instead, the mid-Holocene vegetation remained rather stable despite of the changing climate. These new findings demonstrate generally significant threshold and truncation effects of climate changes on vegetation, as are strongly supported by surface pollen data and LPJ-GUESS modeling. The results also imply that using pollen data to reconstruct past climate changes is not always straightforward. Our findings have important implication for understanding the potential effects of global warming on dryland ecosystem change.

Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes.

PubMed

Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L

2016-01-01

Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, "indigenous food systems." Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat from climate change. As such, the health of the food production and processing environments in such systems merits immediate attention in research and practice.

Indigenous Food Systems and Climate Change: Impacts of Climatic Shifts on the Production and Processing of Native and Traditional Crops in the Bolivian Andes

PubMed Central

Keleman Saxena, Alder; Cadima Fuentes, Ximena; Gonzales Herbas, Rhimer; Humphries, Debbie L.

2016-01-01

Inhabitants of the high-mountain Andes have already begun to experience changes in the timing, severity, and patterning of annual weather cycles. These changes have important implications for agriculture, for human health, and for the conservation of biodiversity in the region. This paper examines the implications of climate-driven changes for native and traditional crops in the municipality of Colomi, Cochabamba, Bolivia. Data were collected between 2012 and 2014 via mixed methods, qualitative fieldwork, including participatory workshops with female farmers and food preparers, semi-structured interviews with local agronomists, and participant observation. Drawing from this data, the paper describes (a) the observed impacts of changing weather patterns on agricultural production in the municipality of Colomi, Bolivia and (b) the role of local environmental resources and conditions, including clean running water, temperature, and humidity, in the household processing techniques used to conserve and sometimes detoxify native crop and animal species, including potato (Solanum sp.), oca (Oxalis tuberosa), tarwi (Lupinus mutabilis), papalisa (Ullucus tuberosus), and charke (llama or sheep jerky). Analysis suggests that the effects of climatic changes on agriculture go beyond reductions in yield, also influencing how farmers make choices about the timing of planting, soil management, and the use and spatial distribution of particular crop varieties. Furthermore, household processing techniques to preserve and detoxify native foods rely on key environmental and climatic resources, which may be vulnerable to climatic shifts. Although these findings are drawn from a single case study, we suggest that Colomi agriculture characterizes larger patterns in what might be termed, “indigenous food systems.” Such systems are underrepresented in aggregate models of the impacts of climate change on world agriculture and may be under different, more direct, and more immediate threat from climate change. As such, the health of the food production and processing environments in such systems merits immediate attention in research and practice. PMID:26973824

Assessing the Role of Climate Change in Malaria Transmission in Africa.

PubMed

Ngarakana-Gwasira, E T; Bhunu, C P; Masocha, M; Mashonjowa, E

2016-01-01

The sensitivity of vector borne diseases like malaria to climate continues to raise considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease dynamics. The problem of malaria vectors shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is of important concern. A mathematical model incorporating rainfall and temperature is constructed to study the transmission dynamics of malaria. The reproduction number obtained is applied to gridded temperature and rainfall datasets for baseline climate and future climate with aid of GIS. As a result of climate change, malaria burden is likely to increase in the tropics, the highland regions, and East Africa and along the northern limit of falciparum malaria. Falciparum malaria will spread into the African highlands; however it is likely to die out at the southern limit of the disease.

The Great Plains low-level jet in 1.5C and 2C HAPPI simulations: Implications for changes in extreme climate events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weaver, S. J.; Barcikowska, M. J.

2017-12-01

Global temperature targets have become the cornerstone for global climate policy discussions. Given the goal of the Paris Accord to limit the rise in global mean temperature to well below 2.0oC above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts toward the more ambitious 1.5oC goal, there is increasing focus in the climate science community on what the relative changes in regional climate extremes may be for these two scenarios. Despite the successes of major climate science modeling efforts, there is still a significant information gap regarding the regional and seasonal changes in some climate extremes over the U.S. as a function of these global mean temperature targets.During the spring and summer, large amounts of heat and moisture are transported northward into the central and eastern U.S. by the Great Plains Low-Level Jet (GPLLJ) - an atmospheric river which dominates the subcontinental scale climate variability during the warm half of the year. Accordingly, the GPLLJ and its vast spatiotemporal variability is highly influential over several types of extreme climate anomalies east of the Rocky Mountains, including, drought and pluvial events, tornadic activity, and the evolution of central U.S warming hole. Changes in the GPLLJ and its variability are probed from the perspective of several hundred climate realizations afforded by the availability of climate model experiments from the Half a degree additional warming, Prognosis, and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) effort - a suite of multi-model ensemble AMIP simulations forced by 1.5oC and 2oC levels of global warming. The multimodel analysis focuses on the variable magnitude of the seasonal changes in the mean GPLLJ and shifts in the extremes of the prominent modes of GPLLJ variability - both of which have implications for the future shifts in extreme climate events over the Great Plains, Midwest, and southeast regions of the U.S.

Land use changes and its climatic implications in Northern Italy during the Dark Ages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oeggl, Klaus; Oeggl-Wahlmüller, Notburga; Festi, Daniela; Zagermann, Marcus

2016-04-01

Here we present an interdisciplinary study on land use changes in Northern Italy at the transition from the Roman Empire to the Early Middle Ages. The combination of archaeological data and high-resolution pollen analyses carried out in the Fiavè basin (Trentino) provide a detailed insight in socio-economic changes and its implications with climate in the Dark Ages. The vegetation in this area is dominated up to 1000 m by submediterranian trees like Fraxinus ornus and Ostrya carpinifolia, superseded by a mixed Fagus and Abies forest with variable amounts of Picea abies. Since 2008 archaeological surveys in the Fiavè basin as well as excavations conducted on a fortified hill-top settlement (castrum) in 985m register the settlement development of this settlement cluster and reveal an almost continuous occupation from Roman to Early Medieval Times. In addition a high-resolution pollen record from a 1.30 m thick peat sequence of the bog "Palude di Fiave" discloses four main phases: (1) in the Late Iron Age high amounts of arboreal pollen and the spread of Abies demonstrate a decrease in settlement activity suggested by wetter climate conditions. (2) During the Roman Empire a phase with arable farming in the basin starts. Olea, Juglans and Castanea sativa are introduced and document the onset of horticulture in this region. (3) After 300 AD - during the Migration Period - the wet and cool conditions have had poor impact on settlement activity. Agricultural (Cerealia) and nitrophilous indicators (Plantago, Chenopodiaceae, Urticaceae) are continuously proved. However a change within the cultivated crops in relation to the climate conditions is observed. Subsequently a progressive recovery of Pinus followed by Abies and Fagus marks the climatic improvement at the beginning of the Early Medieval Times. (4) The time from 600 to 800 AD is characterized by increasing frequency and diversity of anthropogenic-related indicators. The implications of these land use changes with climate conditions are discussed.

Energy Choices and Climate Change: A New Interactive Feature on Windows to the Universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardiner, L. S.; Russell, R. M.; Ward, D.; Johnson, R. M.; Henderson, S.; Foster, S. Q.

2009-12-01

We have developed a new, self-paced online module to foster understanding of how choices made about energy production and energy use affect greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. The module, entitled “Energy Choices and Climate Change” is available on Windows to the Universe (www.windows.ucar.edu), an extensive educational Web site used by over 20 million people each year. “Energy Choices and Climate Change” provides a new way to look at issues related to energy and climate change, emphasizing the climate implications of the choices we make. “Energy Choices and Climate Change” allows users to explore two different scenarios through which they make decisions about energy production or use. In the “Ruler of the World” scenario, the user is given the authority to make decisions about the mix of energy sources that will be used worldwide with the aim of reducing emissions while meeting global energy demand and monitoring costs and societal implications. In “The Joules Family” scenario, the user makes decisions about how to change the way a hypothetical family of four uses energy at home and for transportation with the aim of reducing the family’s carbon emissions and fossil fuel use while keeping costs less than long-term savings. While this module is intended for a general public audience, an associated teacher’s guide provides support for secondary educators using the module with students. Windows to the Universe is a project of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Office of Education and Outreach. Funding for the Energy Choices and Climate Change online module was provided by the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.

PubMed

Joslyn, Susan L; LeClerc, Jared E

2016-01-01

Lingering skepticism about climate change might be due in part to the way climate projections are perceived by members of the public. Variability between scientists' estimates might give the impression that scientists disagree about the fact of climate change rather than about details concerning the extent or timing. Providing uncertainty estimates might clarify that the variability is due in part to quantifiable uncertainty inherent in the prediction process, thereby increasing people's trust in climate projections. This hypothesis was tested in two experiments. Results suggest that including uncertainty estimates along with climate projections leads to an increase in participants' trust in the information. Analyses explored the roles of time, place, demographic differences (e.g., age, gender, education level, political party affiliation), and initial belief in climate change. Implications are discussed in terms of the potential benefit of adding uncertainty estimates to public climate projections. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Climate Change Professional Development: Design, Implementation, and Initial Outcomes on Teacher Learning, Practice, and Student Beliefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shea, Nicole A.; Mouza, Chrystalla; Drewes, Andrea

2016-04-01

In this work, we present the design, implementation, and initial outcomes of the Climate Academy, a hybrid professional development program delivered through a combination of face-to-face and online interactions, intended to prepare formal and informal science teachers (grades 5-16) in teaching about climate change. The Climate Academy was designed around core elements of successful environmental professional development programs and aligned with practices advocated in benchmarked science standards. Data were collected from multiple sources including observations of professional development events, participants' reflections on their learning, and collection of instructional units designed during the Academy. Data were also collected from a focal case study teacher in a middle school setting. Case study data included classroom observations, teacher interviews, and student beliefs toward climate change. Results indicated that the Climate Academy fostered increased learning among participants of both climate science content and pedagogical strategies for teaching about climate change. Additionally, results indicated that participants applied their new learning in the design of climate change instructional units. Finally, results from the case study indicated positive impacts on student beliefs and greater awareness about climate change. Results have implications for the design of professional development programs on climate change, a topic included for the first time in national standards.

How does climate change cause extinction?

PubMed Central

Cahill, Abigail E.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Fisher-Reid, M. Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J.; Yeong Ryu, Hae; Sbeglia, Gena C.; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B.; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J.

2013-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies. PMID:23075836

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

How does climate change cause extinction?

PubMed

Cahill, Abigail E; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Fisher-Reid, M Caitlin; Hua, Xia; Karanewsky, Caitlin J; Ryu, Hae Yeong; Sbeglia, Gena C; Spagnolo, Fabrizio; Waldron, John B; Warsi, Omar; Wiens, John J

2013-01-07

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to be a major cause of species extinctions in the next 100 years. But what will actually cause these extinctions? For example, will it be limited physiological tolerance to high temperatures, changing biotic interactions or other factors? Here, we systematically review the proximate causes of climate-change related extinctions and their empirical support. We find 136 case studies of climatic impacts that are potentially relevant to this topic. However, only seven identified proximate causes of demonstrated local extinctions due to anthropogenic climate change. Among these seven studies, the proximate causes vary widely. Surprisingly, none show a straightforward relationship between local extinction and limited tolerances to high temperature. Instead, many studies implicate species interactions as an important proximate cause, especially decreases in food availability. We find very similar patterns in studies showing decreases in abundance associated with climate change, and in those studies showing impacts of climatic oscillations. Collectively, these results highlight our disturbingly limited knowledge of this crucial issue but also support the idea that changing species interactions are an important cause of documented population declines and extinctions related to climate change. Finally, we briefly outline general research strategies for identifying these proximate causes in future studies.

Anticipating changes to future connectivity within a network of marine protected areas.

PubMed

Coleman, Melinda A; Cetina-Heredia, Paulina; Roughan, Moninya; Feng, Ming; van Sebille, Erik; Kelaher, Brendan P

2017-09-01

Continental boundary currents are projected to be altered under future scenarios of climate change. As these currents often influence dispersal and connectivity among populations of many marine organisms, changes to boundary currents may have dramatic implications for population persistence. Networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) often aim to maintain connectivity, but anticipation of the scale and extent of climatic impacts on connectivity are required to achieve this critical conservation goal in a future of climate change. For two key marine species (kelp and sea urchins), we use oceanographic modelling to predict how continental boundary currents are likely to change connectivity among a network of MPAs spanning over 1000 km of coastline off the coast of eastern Australia. Overall change in predicted connectivity among pairs of MPAs within the network did not change significantly over and above temporal variation within climatic scenarios, highlighting the need for future studies to incorporate temporal variation in dispersal to robustly anticipate likely change. However, the intricacies of connectivity between different pairs of MPAs were noteworthy. For kelp, poleward connectivity among pairs of MPAs tended to increase in the future, whereas equatorward connectivity tended to decrease. In contrast, for sea urchins, connectivity among pairs of MPAs generally decreased in both directions. Self-seeding within higher-latitude MPAs tended to increase, and the role of low-latitude MPAs as a sink for urchins changed significantly in contrasting ways. These projected changes have the potential to alter important genetic parameters with implications for adaptation and ecosystem vulnerability to climate change. Considering such changes, in the context of managing and designing MPA networks, may ensure that conservation goals are achieved into the future. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead

PubMed Central

Walter, Katharine S.; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O.; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J.; Boos, William R.; Weinberger, Daniel M.; Pitzer, Virginia E.

2017-01-01

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. PMID:28814655

Is There Any Hope? How Climate Change News Imagery and Text Influence Audience Emotions and Support for Climate Mitigation Policies.

PubMed

Feldman, Lauren; Hart, P Sol

2018-03-01

Using a national sample, this study experimentally tests the effects of news visuals and texts that emphasize either the causes and impacts of climate change or actions that can be taken to address climate change. We test the effects of variations in text and imagery on discrete emotions (i.e., hope, fear, and anger) and, indirectly, on support for climate mitigation policies. Political ideology is examined as a moderator. The findings indicate that news images and texts that focus on climate-oriented actions can increase hope and, in the case of texts, decrease fear and anger, and these effects generally hold across the ideological spectrum. In turn, the influence of emotions on policy support depends on ideology: Hope and fear increase support for climate policies for all ideological groups but particularly conservatives, whereas anger polarizes the opinions of liberals and conservatives. Implications for climate change communication that appeals to emotions are discussed. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Identifying climate drivers of infectious disease dynamics: recent advances and challenges ahead.

PubMed

Metcalf, C Jessica E; Walter, Katharine S; Wesolowski, Amy; Buckee, Caroline O; Shevliakova, Elena; Tatem, Andrew J; Boos, William R; Weinberger, Daniel M; Pitzer, Virginia E

2017-08-16

Climate change is likely to profoundly modulate the burden of infectious diseases. However, attributing health impacts to a changing climate requires being able to associate changes in infectious disease incidence with the potentially complex influences of climate. This aim is further complicated by nonlinear feedbacks inherent in the dynamics of many infections, driven by the processes of immunity and transmission. Here, we detail the mechanisms by which climate drivers can shape infectious disease incidence, from direct effects on vector life history to indirect effects on human susceptibility, and detail the scope of variation available with which to probe these mechanisms. We review approaches used to evaluate and quantify associations between climate and infectious disease incidence, discuss the array of data available to tackle this question, and detail remaining challenges in understanding the implications of climate change for infectious disease incidence. We point to areas where synthesis between approaches used in climate science and infectious disease biology provide potential for progress. © 2017 The Authors.

Forecasting conditional climate-change using a hybrid approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Esfahani, Akbar Akbari; Friedel, Michael J.

2014-01-01

A novel approach is proposed to forecast the likelihood of climate-change across spatial landscape gradients. This hybrid approach involves reconstructing past precipitation and temperature using the self-organizing map technique; determining quantile trends in the climate-change variables by quantile regression modeling; and computing conditional forecasts of climate-change variables based on self-similarity in quantile trends using the fractionally differenced auto-regressive integrated moving average technique. The proposed modeling approach is applied to states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah) in the southwestern U.S., where conditional forecasts of climate-change variables are evaluated against recent (2012) observations, evaluated at a future time period (2030), and evaluated as future trends (2009–2059). These results have broad economic, political, and social implications because they quantify uncertainty in climate-change forecasts affecting various sectors of society. Another benefit of the proposed hybrid approach is that it can be extended to any spatiotemporal scale providing self-similarity exists.

Pathogenic marine microbes influence the effects of climate change on a commercially important tropical bivalve.

PubMed

Turner, Lucy M; Alsterberg, Christian; Turner, Andrew D; Girisha, S K; Rai, Ashwin; Havenhand, Jonathan N; Venugopal, M N; Karunasagar, Indrani; Godhe, Anna

2016-08-31

There is growing evidence that climate change will increase the prevalence of toxic algae and harmful bacteria, which can accumulate in marine bivalves. However, we know little about any possible interactions between exposure to these microorganisms and the effects of climate change on bivalve health, or about how this may affect the bivalve toxin-pathogen load. In mesocosm experiments, mussels, Perna viridis, were subjected to simulated climate change (warming and/or hyposalinity) and exposed to harmful bacteria and/or toxin-producing dinoflagellates. We found significant interactions between climate change and these microbes on metabolic and/or immunobiological function and toxin-pathogen load in mussels. Surprisingly, however, these effects were virtually eliminated when mussels were exposed to both harmful microorganisms simultaneously. This study is the first to examine the effects of climate change on determining mussel toxin-pathogen load in an ecologically relevant, multi-trophic context. The results may have considerable implications for seafood safety.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" contained the following reports:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape; Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Special Session: Mars Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The session "Mars Climate Change" included the following topics:Geological Evidence for Climate Change on Mars; A New Astronomical Solution for the Long Term Evolution of the Insolation Quantities of Mars; Interpreting Martian Paleoclimate with a Mars General Circulation Model; History and Progress of GCM Simulations on Recent Mars Climate Change; Northern and Southern Permafrost Regions on Mars with High Content of Water Ice: Similarities and Differences; Periods of Active Permafrost Layer Formation in the Recent Geological History of Mars; Microclimate Zones in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica: Implications for Landscape Evolution and Climate Change on Mars; Geomorphic Evidence for Martian Ground Ice and Climate Change; Explaining the Mid-Latitude Ice Deposits with a General Circulation Model; Tharsis Montes Cold-based Glaciers: Observations and Constraints for Modeling and Preliminary Results; Ice Sheet Modeling: Terrestrial Background and Application to Arsia Mons Lobate Deposit, Mars; Enhanced Water-Equivalent Hydrogen on the Western Flanks of the Tharsis Montes and Olympus Mons: Remnant Subsurface Ice or Hydrate Minerals?; and New Age Mars.

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

2016-10-01

Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

Slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its implications for abrupt ecosystem change.

PubMed

Boulton, Chris A; Lenton, Timothy M

2015-09-15

Marine ecosystems are sensitive to stochastic environmental variability, with higher-amplitude, lower-frequency--i.e., "redder"--variability posing a greater threat of triggering large ecosystem changes. Here we show that fluctuations in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index have slowed down markedly over the observational record (1900-present), as indicated by a robust increase in autocorrelation. This "reddening" of the spectrum of climate variability is also found in regionally averaged North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs), and can be at least partly explained by observed deepening of the ocean mixed layer. The progressive reddening of North Pacific climate variability has important implications for marine ecosystems. Ecosystem variables that respond linearly to climate forcing will have become prone to much larger variations over the observational record, whereas ecosystem variables that respond nonlinearly to climate forcing will have become prone to more frequent "regime shifts." Thus, slowing down of North Pacific climate variability can help explain the large magnitude and potentially the quick succession of well-known abrupt changes in North Pacific ecosystems in 1977 and 1989. When looking ahead, despite model limitations in simulating mixed layer depth (MLD) in the North Pacific, global warming is robustly expected to decrease MLD. This could potentially reverse the observed trend of slowing down of North Pacific climate variability and its effects on marine ecosystems.

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity

PubMed Central

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-01-01

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors’ experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public health There is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change. PMID:27190980

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.

PubMed

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-04-26

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change.

Some like it hot: the influence and implications of climate change on coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei) and coffee production in East Africa

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The negative effects of climate change are already evident for many of the 25 million coffee farmers across the tropics and the 90 billion dollar coffee industry. The coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei), the most devastating pest of coffee worldwide, has already benefited from the temperature r...

Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Coastal Military Installations: Policy Implications

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

the risks of mission impairment during and immediately after tropical and extratropical storms , assuming that sea level rise scenarios intensify these...timescales. .................................... 28 Figure 15: The sedimentary record can be used to obtain long-term storm histories...result in a variety of outcomes across the nation. Key coastal climate stressors include rising sea levels and changes in storm intensity and

The effects of elevated CO2 on cereal crop natural defenses and the potential implications for mycotoxin risk

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wheat and corn are an essential part of the world’s grain supply, but climate change has the potential to increase grain susceptibility to toxin producing fungal pathogens. While rising atmospheric [CO2] is a driving force of climate change, our understanding of how elevated [CO2] will effect grain ...

Modeling climate changes and wildfire interactions: Effects on whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and implications for restoration, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Allissa Corrow; Robert E. Keane

2011-01-01

Climate changes are projected to profoundly influence vegetation patterns and community compositions, either directly through increased species mortality and shifts in species distributions, or indirectly through disturbance dynamics such as increased wildfire activity and extent, shifting fire regimes, and pathogenesis. High-elevation landscapes have been shown to be...

A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the report, A Screening Assessment of the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Combined Sewer Overflow (CSO) Mitigation in the Great Lakes and New England Regions. This report is a screening-level assessment of the potential implications...

China: The Impact of Climate Change to 2030. Geopolitical Implications

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

China ranks lower in resilience to climate change than Brazil , Turkey, and Mexico, but higher than India. • China can adapt its administrative...Southeast Asia at risk . 1 The panel had expertise in political science, comparative world...address energy demand primarily through domestically produced coal and imported oil , leading to a severe rise in China’s contribution to global

Implications of climate change on the distribution of the tick vector Ixodes scapularis and risk for Lyme disease in the Texas-Mexico transboundary region

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Disease risk maps are important tools that help ascertain the likelihood of exposure to specific infectious agents. Understanding how climate change may affect the suitability of habitats for ticks will improve the accuracy of risk maps of tick-borne pathogen transmission in humans and domestic anim...

Implications of changing water cycle for the performance and yield characteristics of the multi-purpose Beas Reservoir in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adeloye, A. J.; Ojha, C. S.; Soundharajan, B.; Remesan, R.

2013-12-01

There is considerable change in both the spatial and temporal patterns of monsoon rainfall in India, with implications for water resources availability and security. 'Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on India Agriculture' (MICCI) is one of five on-going scientific efforts being sponsored as part of the UK-NERC/India-MOES Changing Water Cycle (South Asia) initiative to further the understanding of the problem and proffer solutions that are robust and effective. This paper focuses on assessing the implications of projected climate change on the yield and performance characteristics of the Pong Reservoir on the Beas River, Himachal Pradesh, India. The Pong serves both hydropower and irrigation needs and is therefore strategic for the socio-economic well-being of the region as well as sustaining the livelihoods of millions of farmers that rely on it for irrigation. Simulated baseline and climate-change perturbed hydro-climate scenarios developed as part of a companion Work Package of MICCI formed the basis of the analysis. For both of these scenarios, reservoir analyses were carried out using the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SPA) and Pong's existing level of releases to derive rule curves for the reservoir. These rule curves then formed the basis of further reservoir behaviour simulations in WEAP and the resulting performance of the reservoir was summarised in terms of reliability, resilience, vulnerability and sustainability. The whole exercise was implemented within a Monte Carlo framework for the benefit of characterising the variability in the assessments. The results show that the rule curves developed using future hydro-climate are significantly changed from the baseline in that higher storages will be required to be maintained in the Pong in the future to achieve reliable performance. As far as the overall performance of the reservoir is concerned, future reliability (both time-based and volume-based) is not significantly different from the baseline, provided the future simulations adopt the future rule curves. This is, however, not the case with the resilience, with the future hydro-climate resulting in a less resilient system when compared with the baseline. The resilience is the ability of the system to recover from a hydrological failure; consequently, lower resilience for the future systems is an indication that longer, continuous failure periods are likely with implications for the two purposes of the reservoir. For example, extended periods of water scarcity that may result from a low resilient system will mean that crops are likely to experience longer periods of water stress with implications for crop yields. In such situations, better operational practices that manage the available water through hedging and irrigation water scheduling will be required. Other interventions may include the introduction of water from other sources, e.g. groundwater.

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems.

PubMed

Harley, Christopher D G; Randall Hughes, A; Hultgren, Kristin M; Miner, Benjamin G; Sorte, Cascade J B; Thornber, Carol S; Rodriguez, Laura F; Tomanek, Lars; Williams, Susan L

2006-02-01

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.

The Implications of Growing Bioenergy Crops on Water Resources, Carbon and Nitrogen Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, A. K.; Song, Y.; Kheshgi, H. S.

2016-12-01

What is the potential for the crops Corn, Miscanthus and switchgrass to meet future energy demands in the U.S.A., and would they mitigate climate change by offsetting fossil fuel greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions? The large-scale cultivation of these bioenergy crops itself could also drive climate change through changes in albedo, evapotranspiration (ET), and GHG emissions. Whether these climate effects will mitigate or exacerbate climate change in the short- and long-term is uncertain. This uncertainty stems from our incomplete understanding of the effects of expanded bioenergy crop production on terrestrial water and energy balance, carbon and nitrogen dynamics, and their interactions. This study aims to understand the implications of growing large-scale bioenergy crops on water resources, carbon and nitrogen dynamics in the United States using a data-modeling framework (ISAM) that we developed. Our study indicates that both Miscanthus and Cave-in-Rock switchgrass can attain high and stable yield over parts of the Midwest, however, this high production is attained at the cost of increased soil water loss as compared to current natural vegetation. Alamo switchgrass can attain high and stable yield in the southern US without significant influence on soil water quantity.

Pervasive drought legacies in forest ecosystems and their implications for carbon cycle models

Treesearch

W. R. L. Anderegg; C. Schwalm; F. Biondi; J. J. Camarero; G. Koch; M. Litvak; K. Ogle; J. D. Shaw; E. Shevliakova; A. P. Williams; A. Wolf; E. Ziaco; S. Pacala

2015-01-01

The impacts of climate extremes on terrestrial ecosystems are poorly understood but important for predicting carbon cycle feedbacks to climate change. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models typically assume that vegetation recovery from extreme drought is immediate and complete, which conflicts with the understanding of basic plant physiology. We examined the recovery of...

Climate Change Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

1998-03-01

There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

Declining body size: a third universal response to warming?

PubMed

Gardner, Janet L; Peters, Anne; Kearney, Michael R; Joseph, Leo; Heinsohn, Robert

2011-06-01

A recently documented correlate of anthropogenic climate change involves reductions in body size, the nature and scale of the pattern leading to suggestions of a third universal response to climate warming. Because body size affects thermoregulation and energetics, changing body size has implications for resilience in the face of climate change. A review of recent studies shows heterogeneity in the magnitude and direction of size responses, exposing a need for large-scale phylogenetically controlled comparative analyses of temporal size change. Integrative analyses of museum data combined with new theoretical models of size-dependent thermoregulatory and metabolic responses will increase both understanding of the underlying mechanisms and physiological consequences of size shifts and, therefore, the ability to predict the sensitivities of species to climate change. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Inadvertent Weather Modification in Urban Areas: Lessons for Global Climate Change.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Changnon, Stanley A.

1992-05-01

Large metropolitan areas in North America, home to 65% of the nation's population, have created major changes in their climates over the past 150 years. The rate and amount of the urban climate change approximate those being predicted globally using climate models. Knowledge of urban weather and climate modification holds lessons for the global climate change issue. First, adjustments to urban climate changes can provide guidance for adjusting to global change. A second lesson relates to the difficulty but underscores the necessity of providing scientifically credible proof of change within the noise of natural climatic variability. The evolution of understanding about how urban conditions influence weather reveals several unexpected outcomes, particularly relating to precipitation changes. These suggest that similar future surprises can be expected in a changed global climate, a third lesson. In-depth studies of how urban climate changes affected the hydrologic cycle, the regional economy, and human activities were difficult because of data problems, lack of impact methodology, and necessity for multi disciplinary investigations. Similar impact studies for global climate change will require diverse scientific talents and funding commitments adequate to measure the complexity of impacts and human adjustments. Understanding the processes whereby urban areas and other human activities have altered the atmosphere and changed clouds and precipitation regionally appears highly relevant to the global climate-change issue. Scientific and governmental policy development needs to recognize an old axiom that became evident in the studies of inadvertent urban and regional climate change and their behavioral implications: Think globally but act locally. Global climate change is an international issue, and the atmosphere must be treated globally. But the impacts and the will to act and adjust will occur regionally.

Two approaches for incorporating climate change into natural resource management planning at Wind Cave National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Symstad, Amy J.; Long, Andrew J.; Stamm, John; King, David A.; Bachelet, Dominque M.; Norton, Parker A.

2014-01-01

Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches. Wind Cave National Park (WICA) protects one of the world’s longest caves, has large amounts of high quality, native vegetation, and hosts a genetically important bison herd. The park’s relatively small size and unique purpose within its landscape requires hands-on management of these and other natural resources, all of which are interconnected. Anthropogenic climate change presents an added challenge to WICA natural resource management because it is characterized by large uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of park and National Park Service (NPS) staff. When uncertainty is high and control of this uncertainty low, scenario planning is an appropriate tool for determining future actions. In 2009, members of the NPS obtained formal training in the use of scenario planning in order to evaluate it as a tool for incorporating climate change into NPS natural resource management planning. WICA served as one of two case studies used in this training exercise. Although participants in the training exercise agreed that the scenario planning process showed promise for its intended purpose, they were concerned that the process lacked the scientific rigor necessary to defend the management implications derived from it in the face of public scrutiny. This report addresses this concern and others by (1) providing a thorough description of the process of the 2009 scenario planning exercise, as well as its results and management implications for WICA; (2) presenting the results of a follow-up, scientific study that quantitatively simulated responses of WICA’s hydrological and ecological systems to specific climate projections; (3) placing these climate projections and the general climate scenarios used in the scenario planning exercise in the broader context of available climate projections; and (4) comparing the natural resource management implications derived from the two approaches.

Climate Change and Flooding in an Ecologically Fragile Zone of Nigerian Coastal Areas: A Case Study of Ilaje Settlement in Lagos, Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oni, A. F.

2017-12-01

Climate change exacerbates the environmental condition directly or indirectly. The frequency of climate-related disasters worldwide has been on the increase with their amplitude growing. The consequences of climate-related disaster are not limited to loss of lives and properties alone, but also serious repercussions on post-disaster reconstruction, as well as the cost implications for resilience of the infrastructure and natural environment. In developing countries, the low-income group whose income is below the world poverty line is the most vulnerable to the dangers of climate change. To worsen the case, the political and economic strength of these countries in terms of economic resources, technological development and urban planning management necessary for adapting to climate change are relatively weak. This study takes an inventory of the study area environment to establish its environmental state in terms of the extent of its vulnerability and economic strength. It was found that the study area is vulnerable being a coastal area and could be described as a slum settlement. Also, information on frequency and extent of flooding in association with change in temperature was collected. The results show that the frequency of flood occurrence within the period has increased and the increase was attributed to rise in sea level alongside a significant increase in temperature within the period of study. The implications of the findings on loss of lives/properties and continuous decline in the area economic strength as it relates to resilience of the area was discussed. The study suggests an effective urban land use management and control, as well as redevelopment of resilient infrastructure in the area. The study concludes that the increase in temperature for the period as an indicator of climate change causes rise in sea level and the subsequent increase in flooding occurrence. Key Words: Ecologically Fragile Zone, Climate Change, Flooding and Vulnerability.

Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation’s Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective

PubMed Central

Unsworth, Kerrie L.; Russell, Sally V.; Davis, Matthew C.

2016-01-01

In this paper, we argue that individuals – as members of society – play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants’ belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed. PMID:27588009

Chronic disease and climate change: understanding co-benefits and their policy implications.

PubMed

Capon, Anthony G; Rissel, Chris E

2010-01-01

Chronic disease and climate change are major public policy challenges facing governments around the world. An improved understanding of the relationship between chronic disease and climate change should enable improved policy formulation to support both human health and the health of the planet. Chronic disease and climate change are both unintended consequences of our way of life, and are attributable in part to the ready availability of inexpensive fossil fuel energy. There are co-benefits for health from actions to address climate change. For example, substituting physical activity and a vegetable-rich diet for motor vehicle transport and a meat-rich diet is both good for health and good for the planet. We should encourage ways of living that use less carbon as these can be healthy ways of living, for both individuals and society. Quantitative modelling of co-benefits should inform policy responses.

When and How Does Psychological Voice Climate Influence Individual Change Readiness? The Mediating Role of Normative Commitment and the Moderating Role of Work Engagement

PubMed Central

Lee, Chun-Hsien; Wang, Mei-Ling; Liu, Min-Shi

2017-01-01

This research explores the linking mechanisms and conditional processes underlying the relationship between psychological voice climate and individual change readiness. In accordance with the social identity theory, we argued that normative commitment would mediate the relationship between psychological voice climate and individual change readiness; furthermore, work engagement would moderate the proposed indirect effect. Two-wave survey data were collected from 187 full-time employees in a government-owned institute of research and development and were adopted for moderated mediation analysis. The results showed that normative commitment mediates the relationship between psychological voice climate and individual change readiness. Furthermore, work engagement strengthens the effect of psychological voice climate on individual change readiness in an indirect manner via normative commitment. Based on the findings, the theoretical implications and practical suggestions were discussed. PMID:29062294

Climate change: The 2015 Paris Agreement thresholds and Mediterranean basin ecosystems.

PubMed

Guiot, Joel; Cramer, Wolfgang

2016-10-28

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement of December 2015 aims to maintain the global average warming well below 2°C above the preindustrial level. In the Mediterranean basin, recent pollen-based reconstructions of climate and ecosystem variability over the past 10,000 years provide insights regarding the implications of warming thresholds for biodiversity and land-use potential. We compare scenarios of climate-driven future change in land ecosystems with reconstructed ecosystem dynamics during the past 10,000 years. Only a 1.5°C warming scenario permits ecosystems to remain within the Holocene variability. At or above 2°C of warming, climatic change will generate Mediterranean land ecosystem changes that are unmatched in the Holocene, a period characterized by recurring precipitation deficits rather than temperature anomalies. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

When and How Does Psychological Voice Climate Influence Individual Change Readiness? The Mediating Role of Normative Commitment and the Moderating Role of Work Engagement.

PubMed

Lee, Chun-Hsien; Wang, Mei-Ling; Liu, Min-Shi

2017-01-01

This research explores the linking mechanisms and conditional processes underlying the relationship between psychological voice climate and individual change readiness. In accordance with the social identity theory, we argued that normative commitment would mediate the relationship between psychological voice climate and individual change readiness; furthermore, work engagement would moderate the proposed indirect effect. Two-wave survey data were collected from 187 full-time employees in a government-owned institute of research and development and were adopted for moderated mediation analysis. The results showed that normative commitment mediates the relationship between psychological voice climate and individual change readiness. Furthermore, work engagement strengthens the effect of psychological voice climate on individual change readiness in an indirect manner via normative commitment. Based on the findings, the theoretical implications and practical suggestions were discussed.

Is Dealing with Climate Change a Corporation's Responsibility? A Social Contract Perspective.

PubMed

Unsworth, Kerrie L; Russell, Sally V; Davis, Matthew C

2016-01-01

In this paper, we argue that individuals - as members of society - play an important role in the expectations of whether or not companies are responsible for addressing environmental issues, and whether or not governments should regulate them. From this perspective of corporate social responsibility as a social contract we report the results of a survey of 1066 individuals. The aim of the survey was to assess participants' belief in anthropogenic climate change, free-market ideology, and beliefs around who is responsible for dealing with climate change. Results showed that both climate change views and free market ideology have a strong effect on beliefs that companies are responsible for dealing with climate change and on support for regulatory policy to that end. Furthermore, we found that free market ideology is a barrier in the support of corporate regulatory policy. The implications of these findings for research, policy, and practice are discussed.

Regional climatic warming drives long-term community changes of British marine fish.

PubMed Central

Genner, Martin J.; Sims, David W.; Wearmouth, Victoria J.; Southall, Emily J.; Southward, Alan J.; Henderson, Peter A.; Hawkins, Stephen J.

2004-01-01

Climatic change has been implicated as the cause of abundance fluctuations in marine fish populations worldwide, but the effects on whole communities are poorly understood. We examined the effects of regional climatic change on two fish assemblages using independent datasets from inshore marine (English Channel, 1913-2002) and estuarine environments (Bristol Channel, 1981-2001). Our results show that climatic change has had dramatic effects on community composition. Each assemblage contained a subset of dominant species whose abundances were strongly linked to annual mean sea-surface temperature. Species' latitudinal ranges were not good predictors of species-level responses, however, and the same species did not show congruent trends between sites. This suggests that within a region, populations of the same species may respond differently to climatic change, possibly owing to additional local environmental determinants, interspecific ecological interactions and dispersal capacity. This will make species-level responses difficult to predict within geographically differentiated communities. PMID:15156925

Why Do Some People Do “More” to Mitigate Climate Change than Others? Exploring Heterogeneity in Psycho-Social Associations

PubMed Central

Ortega-Egea, José Manuel; García-de-Frutos, Nieves; Antolín-López, Raquel

2014-01-01

The urgency of climate change mitigation calls for a profound shift in personal behavior. This paper investigates psycho-social correlates of extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, while also testing for potential (unobserved) heterogeneity in European citizens' decision-making. A person's extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change is conceptualized—and differentiated from common mitigation behavior—as some people's broader and greater levels of behavioral engagement (compared to others) across specific self-reported mitigation actions and behavioral domains. Regression analyses highlight the importance of environmental psychographics (i.e., attitudes, motivations, and knowledge about climate change) and socio-demographics (especially country-level variables) in understanding extra mitigation behavior. By looking at the data through the lens of segmentation, significant heterogeneity is uncovered in the associations of attitudes and knowledge about climate change—but not in motivational or socio-demographic links—with extra mitigation behavior in response to climate change, across two groups of environmentally active respondents. The study has implications for promoting more ambitious behavioral responses to climate change, both at the individual level and across countries. PMID:25191841

Sensitivity of managed boreal forests in Finland to climate change, with implications for adaptive management.

PubMed

Kellomäki, Seppo; Peltola, Heli; Nuutinen, Tuula; Korhonen, Kari T; Strandman, Harri

2008-07-12

This study investigated the sensitivity of managed boreal forests to climate change, with consequent needs to adapt the management to climate change. Model simulations representing the Finnish territory between 60 and 70 degrees N showed that climate change may substantially change the dynamics of managed boreal forests in northern Europe. This is especially probable at the northern and southern edges of this forest zone. In the north, forest growth may increase, but the special features of northern forests may be diminished. In the south, climate change may create a suboptimal environment for Norway spruce. Dominance of Scots pine may increase on less fertile sites currently occupied by Norway spruce. Birches may compete with Scots pine even in these sites and the dominance of birches may increase. These changes may reduce the total forest growth locally but, over the whole of Finland, total forest growth may increase by 44%, with an increase of 82% in the potential cutting drain. The choice of appropriate species and reduced rotation length may sustain the productivity of forest land under climate change.

Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Barreca, Alan I.

2014-01-01

This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973–2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects. PMID:25328254

A Survey of Registered Dietitians’ Concern and Actions Regarding Climate Change in the United States

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Irana W.; Balsam, Alan L.; Goldman, Robert

2015-01-01

Dietary choices are a tool to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. While registered dietitians are on the front lines of food and nutrition recommendations, it is unclear how many are concerned with climate change and take action in practice in the United States. We explored concern about climate change among registered dietitians, and identified factors that may influence practice-related behaviors. Our study population included a random sample of all registered dietitians credentialed in the United States. Primary data were gathered using a cross-sectional survey. Of the 570 survey responses, 75% strongly agreed or agreed that climate change is an important issue while 34% strongly agreed or agreed that dietitians should play a major role in climate change mitigation strategies. Thirty-eight percent engaged in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Vegetarian (p = 0.002) and vegan dietitians (p = 0.007) were significantly more likely than non-vegetarian and non-vegan dietitians to engage in activities that promoted diet as a climate change mitigation strategy. Overall, concern for climate change among dietitians varied significantly by the region of the country in which the dietitian resided, and awareness that animal products are implicated in climate change. Registered dietitians in the United States are concerned with climate change. However, there is a discrepancy between concern and practice-based actions. These results suggest the need for educational and experiential opportunities connecting climate change mitigation to dietetics practice. PMID:26217666

A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications

PubMed Central

Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Wiesböck, Laura; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

2018-01-01

There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events. PMID:29438345

A Comparative Analysis of Climate-Risk and Extreme Event-Related Impacts on Well-Being and Health: Policy Implications.

PubMed

Filho, Walter Leal; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Nagy, Gustavo J; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Wiesböck, Laura; Ayal, Desalegn Y; Morgan, Edward A; Mugabe, Paschal; Aparicio-Effen, Marilyn; Fudjumdjum, Hubert; Chiappetta Jabbour, Charbel Jose

2018-02-13

There are various climate risks that are caused or influenced by climate change. They are known to have a wide range of physical, economic, environmental and social impacts. Apart from damages to the physical environment, many climate risks (climate variability, extreme events and climate-related hazards) are associated with a variety of impacts on human well-being, health, and life-supporting systems. These vary from boosting the proliferation of vectors of diseases (e.g., mosquitos), to mental problems triggered by damage to properties and infrastructure. There is a great variety of literature about the strong links between climate change and health, while there is relatively less literature that specifically examines the health impacts of climate risks and extreme events. This paper is an attempt to address this knowledge gap, by compiling eight examples from a set of industrialised and developing countries, where such interactions are described. The policy implications of these phenomena and the lessons learned from the examples provided are summarised. Some suggestions as to how to avert the potential and real health impacts of climate risks are made, hence assisting efforts to adapt to a problem whose impacts affect millions of people around the world. All the examples studied show some degree of vulnerability to climate risks regardless of their socioeconomic status and need to increase resilience against extreme events.

Farmers' perceptions of climate change and agricultural adaptation strategies in rural Sahel.

PubMed

Mertz, Ole; Mbow, Cheikh; Reenberg, Anette; Diouf, Awa

2009-05-01

Farmers in the Sahel have always been facing climatic variability at intra- and inter-annual and decadal time scales. While coping and adaptation strategies have traditionally included crop diversification, mobility, livelihood diversification, and migration, singling out climate as a direct driver of changes is not so simple. Using focus group interviews and a household survey, this study analyzes the perceptions of climate change and the strategies for coping and adaptation by sedentary farmers in the savanna zone of central Senegal. Households are aware of climate variability and identify wind and occasional excess rainfall as the most destructive climate factors. Households attribute poor livestock health, reduced crop yields and a range of other problems to climate factors, especially wind. However, when questions on land use and livelihood change are not asked directly in a climate context, households and groups assign economic, political, and social rather than climate factors as the main reasons for change. It is concluded that the communities studied have a high awareness of climate issues, but climatic narratives are likely to influence responses when questions mention climate. Change in land use and livelihood strategies is driven by adaptation to a range of factors of which climate appears not to be the most important. Implications for policy-making on agricultural and economic development will be to focus on providing flexible options rather than specific solutions to uncertain climate.

Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.

2009-04-01

The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions—one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

The future of fishes and fisheries in the changing oceans.

PubMed

Cheung, W W L

2018-03-01

This paper aims to highlight the risk of climate change on coupled marine human and natural systems and explore possible solutions to reduce such risk. Specifically, it explores some of the key responses of marine fish stocks and fisheries to climate change and their implications for human society. It highlights the importance of mitigating carbon emission and achieving the Paris Agreement in reducing climate risk on marine fish stocks and fisheries. Finally, it discusses potential opportunities for helping fisheries to reduce climate threats, through local adaptation. A research direction in fish biology and ecology is proposed that would help support the development of these potential solutions. © 2018 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Recovery Migration After Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System.

PubMed

Curtis, Katherine J; Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack

2015-08-01

Changes in the human migration systems of the Gulf of Mexico coastline counties affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita provide an example of how climate change may affect coastal populations. Crude climate change models predict a mass migration of "climate refugees," but an emerging literature on environmental migration suggests that most migration will be short-distance and short-duration within existing migration systems, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-stricken places. In this research, we derive a series of hypotheses on recovery migration predicting how the migration system of hurricane-affected coastline counties in the Gulf of Mexico was likely to have changed between the pre-disaster and the recovery periods. We test these hypotheses using data from the Internal Revenue Service on annual county-level migration flows, comparing the recovery period migration system (2007-2009) with the pre-disaster period (1999-2004). By observing county-to-county ties and flows, we find that recovery migration was strong: the migration system of the disaster-affected coastline counties became more spatially concentrated, while flows within it intensified and became more urbanized. Our analysis demonstrates how migration systems are likely to be affected by the more intense and frequent storms anticipated by climate change scenarios, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-affected places.

Exposure science in an age of rapidly changing climate: challenges and opportunities

PubMed Central

LaKind, Judy S; Overpeck, Jonathan; Breysse, Patrick N; Backer, Lorrie; Richardson, Susan D; Sobus, Jon; Sapkota, Amir; Upperman, Crystal R; Jiang, Chengsheng; Beard, C Ben; Brunkard, J M; Bell, Jesse E; Harris, Ryan; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Peltier, Richard E; Chew, Ginger L; Blount, Benjamin C

2016-01-01

Climate change is anticipated to alter the production, use, release, and fate of environmental chemicals, likely leading to increased uncertainty in exposure and human health risk predictions. Exposure science provides a key connection between changes in climate and associated health outcomes. The theme of the 2015 Annual Meeting of the International Society of Exposure Science—Exposures in an Evolving Environment—brought this issue to the fore. By directing attention to questions that may affect society in profound ways, exposure scientists have an opportunity to conduct “consequential science”—doing science that matters, using our tools for the greater good and to answer key policy questions, and identifying causes leading to implementation of solutions. Understanding the implications of changing exposures on public health may be one of the most consequential areas of study in which exposure scientists could currently be engaged. In this paper, we use a series of case studies to identify exposure data gaps and research paths that will enable us to capture the information necessary for understanding climate change-related human exposures and consequent health impacts. We hope that paper will focus attention on under-developed areas of exposure science that will likely have broad implications for public health. PMID:27485992

Impact of climate change on electricity systems and markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandramowli, Shankar N.

Climate change poses a serious threat to human welfare. There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that human actions are the primary cause of climate change. The principal climate forcing factor is the increasing accumulation of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) due to combustion of fossil fuels for transportation and electricity generation. Generation of electricity account for nearly one-third of the greenhouse (GHG) emissions globally (on a CO2-equivalent basis). Any kind of economy-wide mitigation or adaptation effort to climate change must have a prominent focus on the electric power sector. I have developed a capacity expansion model for the power sector called LP-CEM (Linear Programming based Capacity Expansion Model). LP-CEM incorporates both the long-term climate change effects and the state/regional-level macroeconomic trends. This modeling framework is demonstrated for the electric power system in the Northeast region of United States. Some of the methodological advances introduced in this research are: the use of high-resolution temperature projections in a power sector capacity expansion model; the incorporation of changes in sectoral composition of electricity demand over time; the incorporation of the effects of climate change and variability on both the demand and supply-side of power sector using parameters estimated in the literature; and an inter-model coupling link with a macroeconomic model to account for price elasticity of demand and other effects on the broader macro-economy. LP-CEM-type models can be of use to state/regional level policymakers to plan for future mitigation and adaptation measures for the electric power sector. From the simulation runs, it is shown that scenarios with climate change effects and with high economic growth rates have resulted in higher capacity addition, optimal supply costs, wholesale/retail prices and total ratepayers' costs. LP-CEM is also adapted to model the implications of the proposed Clean Power Plan (Section 111 (d)) rules for the U.S. Northeast region. This dissertation applies an analytical model and an optimization model to investigate the implications of co-implementing an emission cap and an RPS policy for this region. A simplified analytical model of LP-CEM is specified and the first order optimality conditions are derived. The results from this analytical model are corroborated by running LP-CEM simulations under different carbon cap and RPS policy assumptions. A combination of these policies is shown to have a long-term beneficial effect for the final ratepayers in the region. This research conceptually explores the future implications of climate change and extreme weather events on the regional electricity market framework. The significant findings from this research and future policy considerations are discussed in the conclusion chapter.

Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Genio, Anthony Del

2013-01-01

As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

Applications of VIC for Climate Land Cover Change Imapacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Markert, Kel

2017-01-01

Study focuses on the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB), the LMB is an economically and ecologically important region: (1) One of the largest exporters of rice and fish products, (2) Within top three most biodiverse river basins in the world. Natural climate variability plays an important role in water supply within the region: (1) Short-term climate variability (ENSO, MJO), (2) Long-term climate variability (climate change). Projections of climate change show there will be a decrease in water availability world wide which has implications for food security and ecology. Additional studies show there may be socioeconomic turmoil due to water wars and food security in developing regions such as the Mekong Basin. Southeast Asia has experienced major changes in land use and land cover from 1980 – 2000. Major economic reforms resulting in shift from subsistence farming to market-based agricultural production. Changes in land cover continue to occur which have an important role within the land surface aspect of hydrology.

Scoping the proximal and distal dimensions of climate change on health and wellbeing.

PubMed

Morris, George Paterson; Reis, Stefan; Beck, Sheila Anne; Fleming, Lora Elderkin; Adger, William Neil; Benton, Timothy Guy; Depledge, Michael Harold

2017-12-05

The impacts of climate on health and wellbeing occur in time and space and through a range of indirect, complicated mechanisms. This diversity of pathways has major implications for national public health planning and influence on interventions that might help to mitigate and adapt to rapidly changing environmental conditions, nationally and internationally. This paper draws upon evidence from public health and adverse impact studies across climate science, hydrology, agriculture, public health, and the social sciences. It presents a conceptual model to support decision-making by recognizing both the proximal and distal pathways from climate-induced environmental change to national health and wellbeing. The proximal and distal pathways associated with food security, migration and mobility illustrate the diverse climate change influences in different geographic locations over different timescales. We argue that greater realization and articulation of proximal and distal pathways should radically alter how climate change is addressed as a national and international public health challenge.

Climate change, extinction risks, and reproduction of terrestrial vertebrates.

PubMed

Carey, Cynthia

2014-01-01

This review includes a broad, but superficial, summary of our understanding about current and future climate changes, the predictions about how these changes will likely affect the risks of extinction of organisms, and how current climate changes are already affecting reproduction in terrestrial vertebrates. Many organisms have become extinct in the last century, but habitat destruction, disease and man-made factors other than climate change have been implicated as the causal factor in almost all of these. Reproduction is certain to be negatively impacted in all vertebrate groups for a variety of reasons, such as direct thermal and hydric effects on mortality of embryos, mismatches between optimal availability of food supplies, frequently determined by temperature, and reproductive capacities, sometimes determined by rigid factors such as photoperiod, and disappearance of appropriate foraging opportunities, such as melting sea ice. The numbers of studies documenting correlations between climate changes and biological phenomena are rapidly increasing, but more direct information about the consequences of these changes for species survival and ecosystem health is needed than is currently available.

Health risks of climate change: an assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies.

PubMed

Wardekker, J Arjan; de Jong, Arie; van Bree, Leendert; Turkenburg, Wim C; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P

2012-09-19

Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough 'order-of-magnitude' estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system's and society's capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are most appropriate. For climate related health effects for which rough risk estimates are available, 'robust decision-making' is recommended. For health effects with limited societal and policy relevance, we recommend focusing on no-regret measures. For highly relevant health effects, precautionary measures can be considered. This study indicated that analysing and characterising uncertainty by means of a typology can be a very useful approach for selection and prioritization of preferred adaptation policies to reduce future climate related health risks.

Climate Change and Water Security in South Africa; Assessing Conflict and Coping Strategies in KwaZulu-Natal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosea, P. O.

2017-12-01

The focus on the security implication of climate change was intensified after the 2007 United Nations Security Council debate on climate change as a threat multiplier. In the light of this, Africa is identified as the continent highly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to its high dependence on climate sensitive economy, high poverty prevalence rate, weak institutional coping capacity as well as poor social infrastructure. In the past decades, the peculiarity of South Africa vis-à-vis climate change vulnerability, especially water scarcity, has become an issue of political and economic concern. The country is water stressed due to its arid and semi-arid conditions. In light of this, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) (2010) assert that while global temperature increased by 0.80C over the last century, the surface temperature around the Southern Africa region increased by 2.00C over the same period. This connotes that climate change and its impact is inevitable for the region. This will further exacerbate the already stress water resources within South Africa. Owing to Cilliers (2009) and the Council on Foreign Relations (2016) argument that most conflict in Africa are largely driven by resource competition which are masqueraded as issues based on politics, religion or ethnicity, this study investigates the propensity of conflict dynamics in relation to climate change and water security. Using eco-violence theory as a theoretical framework and on the premises of human security, the study assess the security implications triggered by the impact of climate change on water security of rural communities in uMkhanyakude District Municipality, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. It focused on the extent to which this might trigger conflict as a coping mechanism among rural dwellers to water insecurity in order to inform policy options. Data for the were sourced using a mixed method paradigm where 385 survey questionnaire were distributed using simple random sampling method, 28 in-depth interview using specific sampling as well as 8 focus group discussion. The data generated were analyzed using descriptive statistic with SPSS, as well as thematic content analysis for the quantitative and qualitative data respectively.

The Mediterranean Sea regime shift at the end of the 1980s, and intriguing parallelisms with other European basins.

PubMed

Conversi, Alessandra; Fonda Umani, Serena; Peluso, Tiziana; Molinero, Juan Carlos; Santojanni, Alberto; Edwards, Martin

2010-05-19

Regime shifts are abrupt changes encompassing a multitude of physical properties and ecosystem variables, which lead to new regime conditions. Recent investigations focus on the changes in ecosystem diversity and functioning associated to such shifts. Of particular interest, because of the implication on climate drivers, are shifts that occur synchronously in separated basins. In this work we analyze and review long-term records of Mediterranean ecological and hydro-climate variables and find that all point to a synchronous change in the late 1980s. A quantitative synthesis of the literature (including observed oceanic data, models and satellite analyses) shows that these years mark a major change in Mediterranean hydrographic properties, surface circulation, and deep water convection (the Eastern Mediterranean Transient). We provide novel analyses that link local, regional and basin scale hydrological properties with two major indicators of large scale climate, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and the Northern Hemisphere Temperature index, suggesting that the Mediterranean shift is part of a large scale change in the Northern Hemisphere. We provide a simplified scheme of the different effects of climate vs. temperature on pelagic ecosystems. Our results show that the Mediterranean Sea underwent a major change at the end of the 1980s that encompassed atmospheric, hydrological, and ecological systems, for which it can be considered a regime shift. We further provide evidence that the local hydrography is linked to the larger scale, northern hemisphere climate. These results suggest that the shifts that affected the North, Baltic, Black and Mediterranean (this work) Seas at the end of the 1980s, that have been so far only partly associated, are likely linked as part a northern hemisphere change. These findings bear wide implications for the development of climate change scenarios, as synchronous shifts may provide the key for distinguishing local (i.e., basin) anthropogenic drivers, such as eutrophication or fishing, from larger scale (hemispheric) climate drivers.

Sensitivity of Statistical Downscaling Techniques to Reanalysis Choice and Implications for Regional Climate Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manzanas, R., Sr.; Brands, S.; San Martin, D., Sr.; Gutiérrez, J. M., Sr.

2014-12-01

This work shows that local-scale climate projections obtained by means of statistical downscaling are sensitive to the choice of reanalysis used for calibration. To this aim, a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach is applied to downscale daily precipitation in the Philippines. First, the GLMs are trained and tested -under a cross-validation scheme- separately for two distinct reanalyses (ERA-Interim and JRA-25) for the period 1981-2000. When the observed and downscaled time-series are compared, the attained performance is found to be sensitive to the reanalysis considered if climate change signal bearing variables (temperature and/or specific humidity) are included in the predictor field. Moreover, performance differences are shown to be in correspondence with the disagreement found between the raw predictors from the two reanalyses. Second, the regression coefficients calibrated either with ERA-Interim or JRA-25 are subsequently applied to the output of a Global Climate Model (MPI-ECHAM5) in order to assess the sensitivity of local-scale climate change projections (up to 2100) to reanalysis choice. In this case, the differences detected in present climate conditions are considerably amplified, leading to "delta-change" estimates differing by up to a 35% (on average for the entire country) depending on the reanalysis used for calibration. Therefore, reanalysis choice is shown to importantly contribute to the uncertainty of local-scale climate change projections, and, consequently, should be treated with equal care as other, well-known, sources of uncertainty -e.g., the choice of the GCM and/or downscaling method.- Implications of the results for the entire tropics, as well as for the Model Output Statistics downscaling approach are also briefly discussed.

Scaling Climate Change Communication for Behavior Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodriguez, V. C.; Lappé, M.; Flora, J. A.; Ardoin, N. M.; Robinson, T. N.

2014-12-01

Ultimately, effective climate change communication results in a change in behavior, whether the change is individual, household or collective actions within communities. We describe two efforts to promote climate-friendly behavior via climate communication and behavior change theory. Importantly these efforts are designed to scale climate communication principles focused on behavior change rather than soley emphasizing climate knowledge or attitudes. Both cases are embedded in rigorous evaluations (randomized controlled trial and quasi-experimental) of primary and secondary outcomes as well as supplementary analyses that have implications for program refinement and program scaling. In the first case, the Girl Scouts "Girls Learning Environment and Energy" (GLEE) trial is scaling the program via a Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) for Troop Leaders to teach the effective home electricity and food and transportation energy reduction programs. The second case, the Alliance for Climate Education (ACE) Assembly Program, is advancing the already-scaled assembly program by using communication principles to further engage youth and their families and communities (school and local communities) in individual and collective actions. Scaling of each program uses online learning platforms, social media and "behavior practice" videos, mastery practice exercises, virtual feedback and virtual social engagement to advance climate-friendly behavior change. All of these communication practices aim to simulate and advance in-person train-the-trainers technologies.As part of this presentation we outline scaling principles derived from these two climate change communication and behavior change programs.

Climatic-Induced Shifts in the Distribution of Teak ( Tectona grandis) in Tropical Asia: Implications for Forest Management and Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deb, Jiban Chandra; Phinn, Stuart; Butt, Nathalie; McAlpine, Clive A.

2017-09-01

Modelling the future suitable climate space for tree species has become a widely used tool for forest management planning under global climate change. Teak ( Tectona grandis) is one of the most valuable tropical hardwood species in the international timber market, and natural teak forests are distributed from India through Myanmar, Laos and Thailand. The extents of teak forests are shrinking due to deforestation and the local impacts of global climate change. However, the direct impacts of climate changes on the continental-scale distributions of native and non-native teak have not been examined. In this study, we developed a species distribution model for teak across its entire native distribution in tropical Asia, and its non-native distribution in Bangladesh. We used presence-only records of trees and twelve environmental variables that were most representative for current teak distributions in South and Southeast Asia. MaxEnt (maximum entropy) models were used to model the distributions of teak under current and future climate scenarios. We found that land use/land cover change and elevation were the two most important variables explaining the current and future distributions of native and non-native teak in tropical Asia. Changes in annual precipitation, precipitation seasonality and annual mean actual evapotranspiration may result in shifts in the distributions of teak across tropical Asia. We discuss the implications for the conservation of critical teak habitats, forest management planning, and risks of biological invasion that may occur due to its cultivation in non-native ranges.

Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning

Treesearch

Azad Henareh Khalyani; William A. Gould; Eric Harmsen; Adam Terando; Maya Quinones; Jaime A. Collazo

2016-01-01

Projected tree species redistribution under climate change: Implications for ecosystem vulnerability across protected areas in the eastern United States

Treesearch

Scott G. Zolkos; Patrick Jantz; Tina Cormier; Louis R. Iverson; Daniel W. McKenney; Scott J. Goetz

2015-01-01

The degree to which tree species will shift in response to climate change is uncertain yet critical to understand for assessing ecosystem vulnerability. We analyze results from recent studies that model potential tree species habitat across the eastern United States during the coming century. Our goals were to quantify and spatially analyze habitat projections and...

Vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change: implications for the global carbon cycle

Treesearch

Edward A.G. Schuur; James Bockheim; Josep G. Canadell; Eugenie Euskirchen; Christopher B. Field; Sergey V. Goryachkin; Stefan Hagemann; Peter Kuhry; Peter M. Lafleur; Hanna Lee; Galina Mazhitova; Frederick E. Nelson; Annette Rinke; Vladimir E. Romanovsky; Nikolay Shiklomanov; Charles Tarnocai; Sergey Venevsky; Jason G. Vogel; Sergei A. Zimov

2008-01-01

Thawing permafrost and the resulting microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is one of the most significant potential feedbacks from terrestrial ecosystems to the atmosphere in a changing climate. In this article we present an overview of the global permafrost C pool and of the processes that might transfer this C into the atmosphere, as well as...

Assessing and comparing risk to climate changes among forested locations: implications for ecosystem services

Treesearch

Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Matthew P. Peters; Anantha M. Prasad; Sakthi Subburayalu

2014-01-01

Forests provide key ecosystem services (ES) and the extent to which the ES are realized varies spatially, with forest composition and cultural context, and in breadth, depending on the dominant tree species inhabiting an area. We address the question of how climate change may impact ES within the temperate and diverse forests of the eastern United States. We quantify...

Temporal and Spatial Variation in Peatland Carbon Cycling and Implications for Interpreting Responses of an Ecosystem-Scale Warming Experiment

Treesearch

Natalie A. Griffiths; Paul J. Hanson; Daniel M. Ricciuto; Colleen M. Iversen; Anna M. Jensen; Avni Malhotra; Karis J. McFarlane; Richard J. Norby; Khachik Sargsyan; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Xiaoying Shi; Anthony P. Walker; Eric J. Ward; Jeffrey M. Warren; David J. Weston

2017-01-01

We are conducting a large-scale, long-term climate change response experiment in an ombrotrophic peat bog in Minnesota to evaluate the effects of warming and elevated CO2 on ecosystem processes using empirical and modeling approaches. To better frame future assessments of peatland responses to climate change, we characterized and compared spatial...

National Security Implications of Climate-related Risks and a Changing Climate

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-07-23

ocean acidification , and increased ocean warming pose threats to fish stocks, coral, mangroves, recreation and tourism, and the control of disease...vulnerable locations. USSOUTHCOM similarly highlights the threat that sea 23 July 2015 8 level rise and ocean acidification and warming...aids to GCCs. In addition, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides long-term global climate projections, weather

Forest ecosystems: Vegetation, disturbance, and economics: Chapter 5

USGS Publications Warehouse

Littell, Jeremy S.; Hicke, Jeffrey A.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Capalbo, Susan M.; Houston, Laurie L.; Glick, Patty

2013-01-01

Forests cover about 47% of the Northwest (NW–Washington, Oregon, and Idaho) (Smith et al. 2009, fig. 5.1, table 5.1). The impacts of current and future climate change on NW forest ecosystems are a product of the sensitivities of ecosystem processes to climate and the degree to which humans depend on and interact with those systems. Forest ecosystem structure and function, particularly in relatively unmanaged forests where timber harvest and other land use have smaller effects, is sensitive to climate change because climate has a strong influence on ecosystem processes. Climate can affect forest structure directly through its control of plan physiology and life history (establishment, individual growth, productivity, and morality) or indirectly through its control of disturbance (fire, insects, disease). As climate changes, many forest processes will be affected, altering ecosystem services such as timber production and recreation. These changes have socioeconomic implications (e.g. for timber economies) and will require changes to current management of forests. Climate and management will interact to determine the forests of the future, and the scientific basis for adaptation to climate change in forests thus depends significantly on how forests will be affected.

The future of soil invertebrate communities in polar regions: different climate change responses in the Arctic and Antarctic?

PubMed

Nielsen, Uffe N; Wall, Diana H

2013-03-01

The polar regions are experiencing rapid climate change with implications for terrestrial ecosystems. Here, despite limited knowledge, we make some early predictions on soil invertebrate community responses to predicted twenty-first century climate change. Geographic and environmental differences suggest that climate change responses will differ between the Arctic and Antarctic. We predict significant, but different, belowground community changes in both regions. This change will be driven mainly by vegetation type changes in the Arctic, while communities in Antarctica will respond to climate amelioration directly and indirectly through changes in microbial community composition and activity, and the development of, and/or changes in, plant communities. Climate amelioration is likely to allow a greater influx of non-native species into both the Arctic and Antarctic promoting landscape scale biodiversity change. Non-native competitive species could, however, have negative effects on local biodiversity particularly in the Arctic where the communities are already species rich. Species ranges will shift in both areas as the climate changes potentially posing a problem for endemic species in the Arctic where options for northward migration are limited. Greater soil biotic activity may move the Arctic towards a trajectory of being a substantial carbon source, while Antarctica could become a carbon sink. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

DOE PAGES

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih -Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; ...

2017-11-15

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble ofmore » global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.« less

Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Naz, Bibi S.; Kao, Shih -Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim

The magnitude and frequency of hydrometeorological extremes are expected to increase in the conterminous United States (CONUS) over the rest of this century, and their increase will significantly impact water resource management. While previous efforts focused on the effects of reservoirs on downstream discharge, the effects of climate change on reservoir inflows in upstream areas are not well understood. We evaluated the large-scale climate change effects on extreme hydrological events and their implications for reservoir inflows in 178 headwater basins across CONUS using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. The VIC model was forced with a 10-member ensemble ofmore » global circulation models under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24° grid cell resolution. The results projected an increase in the likelihood of flood risk by 44% for a majority of subbasins upstream of flood control reservoirs in the central United States and increased drought risk by 11% for subbasins upstream of hydropower reservoirs across the western United States. Increased risk of both floods and droughts can potentially make reservoirs across CONUS more vulnerable to future climate conditions. In conclusion, this study estimates reservoir inflow changes over the next several decades, which can be used to optimize water supply management downstream.« less

Mainstreaming of Climate Change into the Ghanaian Tertiary Educational System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyarko, B. K.

2013-12-01

The impact of Climate Change has a far-reaching implication for economies and people living in the fragile Regions of Africa analysts project that by 2020, between 75 million and 250 million people will be exposed various forms of Climate Change Stresses. Education as a key strategy identified under Agenda 21 has been incorporated into the efforts of various educational institutions as a means of mitigating climate change and enhancing sustainability. Climate Change education offers many opportunities and benefits for educators, researchers, learners, and for wider society, but there are also many challenges, which can hinder the successful mainstreaming of climate change education. The study aims at understanding barriers for Climate Change Education in selected tertiary institutions in Ghana. The study was conducted among Geoscience Departments of the 7 main public universities of Ghana. The transcript analysis identified issues that hinders the mainstreaming of Climate Change, these includes existing levels of knowledge and understanding of the concept of climate change, appreciating the threshold concepts, ineffective teaching of Climate Change and some Departments are slow in embracing Climate Change as a discipline. Hence to develop strategies to mainstream climate change education it is important to recognise that increasing the efficiency and delivery of Climate Change education requires greater attention and coordination of activities and updating the educators knowledge and skill's. Various Ministries should be challenged to develop and integrate climate change into education policies. In the design of curriculum, there is a need to integrate Climate Change Education into curricula without compromising already overstretched programmes of study. There is a need to encourage and enhance innovative teaching approaches such as Problem-based learning (PBL) is an approach that challenges students to learn through engagement in a real problem. Institutions and Educator should be encouraged to undertake co-curricula activities and finding ways to practicalize Climate Change education.

Climate change impacts on the conservation outlook of populations on the poleward periphery of species ranges: A case study of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus).

PubMed

Stephens, Tara; Wilson, Sian C; Cassidy, Ffion; Bender, Darren; Gummer, David; Smith, Des H V; Lloyd, Natasha; McPherson, Jana M; Moehrenschlager, Axel

2018-02-01

Given climate change, species' climatically suitable habitats are increasingly expected to shift poleward. Some imperilled populations towards the poleward edge of their species' range might therefore conceivably benefit from climate change. Interactions between climate and population dynamics may be complex, however, with climate exerting effects both indirectly via influence over food availability and more directly, via effects on physiology and its implications for survival and reproduction. A thorough understanding of these interactions is critical for effective conservation management. We therefore examine the relationship between climate, survival and reproduction in Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs, a threatened keystone species in an imperilled ecosystem at the northern edge of the species' range. Our analyses considered 8 years of annual mark-recapture data (2007-2014) in relation to growing degree days, precipitation, drought status and winter severity, as well as year, sex, age and body mass. Survival was strongly influenced by the interaction of drought and body mass class, and winter temperature severity. Female reproductive status was associated with the interaction of growing degree days and growing season precipitation, with spring precipitation and with winter temperature severity. Results related to body mass suggested that climatic variables exerted their effects via regulation of food availability with potential linked effects of food quality, immunological and behavioural implications, and predation risk. Predictions of future increases in drought conditions in North America's grassland ecosystems have raised concerns for the outlook of Canadian black-tailed prairie dogs. Insights gained from the analyses, however, point to mitigating species management options targeted at decoupling the mechanisms by which climate exerts its negative influence. Our approach highlights the importance of understanding the interaction between climate and population dynamics in peripheral populations whose viability might ultimately determine their species' ability to track climatically suitable space. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate change can alter predator-prey dynamics and population viability of prey.

PubMed

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Schaefer, James A; Peers, Michael J L; Ellington, E Hance; Mumma, Matthew A; Rayl, Nathaniel D; Mahoney, Shane P; Murray, Dennis L

2018-01-01

For many organisms, climate change can directly drive population declines, but it is less clear how such variation may influence populations indirectly through modified biotic interactions. For instance, how will climate change alter complex, multi-species relationships that are modulated by climatic variation and that underlie ecosystem-level processes? Caribou (Rangifer tarandus), a keystone species in Newfoundland, Canada, provides a useful model for unravelling potential and complex long-term implications of climate change on biotic interactions and population change. We measured cause-specific caribou calf predation (1990-2013) in Newfoundland relative to seasonal weather patterns. We show that black bear (Ursus americanus) predation is facilitated by time-lagged higher summer growing degree days, whereas coyote (Canis latrans) predation increases with current precipitation and winter temperature. Based on future climate forecasts for the region, we illustrate that, through time, coyote predation on caribou calves could become increasingly important, whereas the influence of black bear would remain unchanged. From these predictions, demographic projections for caribou suggest long-term population limitation specifically through indirect effects of climate change on calf predation rates by coyotes. While our work assumes limited impact of climate change on other processes, it illustrates the range of impact that climate change can have on predator-prey interactions. We conclude that future efforts to predict potential effects of climate change on populations and ecosystems should include assessment of both direct and indirect effects, including climate-predator interactions.

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change.

PubMed

Ralston, Joel; DeLuca, William V; Feldman, Richard E; King, David I

2017-04-01

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species' realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species' ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change in the City of Chicago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D. J.; Hayhoe, K.; Coffee, J.; McGraw, J.; Parzen, J.

2008-12-01

Under Mayor Richard M. Daley's leadership, the City of Chicago initiated the Chicago Climate Action Plan (CCAP) to better understand local implications of global climate change in both higher and lower emissions scenarios, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and implement programs to build future climate change resilience. The City approached this work not only as a way to make Chicago more adaptable in the future, but also to improve Chicago's quality of life today. The Chicago Climate Action Plan adopted stresses the importance of both reducing greenhouse gas emissions in Chicago and preparing for climate changes that may be unavoidable. Building off of the City's significant environmental programs and projects, and based on our analyses of the climate effects and impacts that improved the scientific understanding of future climate change impacts on Chicago, the City then developed a set of climate change adaptation strategies, resulting in the City of Chicago Climate Change Adaptation Summary. This document includes prioritization of climate change adaptations based on relative risk as well as framework strategies for those tactics categorized as "must do/early action." In early 2008, The Mayor's Office asked five Commissioners from its Green Steering Committee to chair adaptation work groups including: extreme heat; extreme precipitation; buildings, infrastructure and equipment; ecosystems; and leadership, planning and communications. Working with staff from relevant departments, sister agencies and other stakeholders, these work groups developed 39 basic adaptation work plans, including plans for enhancing the City's existing projects and programs that relate to climate change adaptation. Climate change adaptation work will be on-going in City Departments under the Mayor's Office leadership. The City intends to continually monitor and improve its response to climate change, resulting in an improved quality of life for Chicago residents.

Mitigation/adaptation and health: health policymaking in the global response to climate change and implications for other upstream determinants.

PubMed

Wiley, Lindsay F

2010-01-01

The time is ripe for innovation in global health governance if we are to achieve global health and development objectives in the face of formidable challenges. Integration of global health concerns into the law and governance of other, related disciplines should be given high priority. This article explores opportunities for health policymaking in the global response to climate change. Climate change and environmental degradation will affect weather disasters, food and water security, infectious disease patterns, and air pollution. Although scientific research has pointed to the interdependence of the global environment and human health, policymakers have been slow to integrate their approaches to environmental and health concerns. A robust response to climate change will require improved integration on two fronts: health concerns must be given higher priority in the response to climate change and threats associated with climate change and environmental degradation must be more adequately addressed by global health law and governance. The mitigation/adaptation response paradigm developing within and beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change provides a useful framework for thinking about global health law and governance with respect to climate change, environmental degradation, and possibly other upstream determinants of health as well. © 2010 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

Implications of Climate Change on the Heat Budget of Lentic Systems Used for Power Station Cooling: Case Study Clinton Lake, Illinois.

PubMed

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; García, Marcelo H

2016-01-05

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change-in particular higher air temperatures-on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Implications of climate change on the heat budget of lentic systems used for power station cooling: Case study Clinton Lake, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quijano, Juan C; Jackson, P. Ryan; Santacruz, Santiago; Morales, Viviana M; Garcia, Marcelo H.

2016-01-01

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Statistical models of temperature in the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta under climate-change scenarios and ecological implications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, R.W.; Stacey, M.; Brown, L.R.; Dettinger, M.

2011-01-01

Changes in water temperatures caused by climate change in California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta will affect the ecosystem through physiological rates of fishes and invertebrates. This study presents statistical models that can be used to forecast water temperature within the Delta as a response to atmospheric conditions. The daily average model performed well (R2 values greater than 0.93 during verification periods) for all stations within the Delta and San Francisco Bay provided there was at least 1 year of calibration data. To provide long-term projections of Delta water temperature, we forced the model with downscaled data from climate scenarios. Based on these projections, the ecological implications for the delta smelt, a key species, were assessed based on temperature thresholds. The model forecasts increases in the number of days above temperatures causing high mortality (especially along the Sacramento River) and a shift in thermal conditions for spawning to earlier in the year. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butler, A. H.; Daniel, J. S.; Portmann, R. W.; Ravishankara, A. R.; Young, P. J.; Fahey, D. W.; Rosenlof, K. H.

2016-06-01

Due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in limiting emissions of ozone-depleting substances, concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, and methane will control the evolution of total column and stratospheric ozone by the latter half of the 21st century. As the world proceeds down the path of reducing climate forcing set forth by the 2015 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 21), a broad range of ozone changes are possible depending on future policies enacted. While decreases in tropical stratospheric ozone will likely persist regardless of the future emissions scenario, extratropical ozone could either remain weakly depleted or even increase well above historical levels, with diverse implication for ultraviolet (UV) radiation. The ozone layer’s dependence on future emissions of these gases creates a complex policy decision space for protecting humans and ecosystems, which includes unexpected options such as accepting nitrous oxide emissions in order to maintain historical column ozone and surface UV levels.

Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2016-05-01

A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

An Investigation of Secondary Students' Mental Models of Climate Change and the Greenhouse Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varela, Begoña; Sesto, Vanessa; García-Rodeja, Isabel

2018-03-01

There are several studies dealing with students' conceptions on climate change, but most of them refer to understanding before instruction. In contrast, this study investigates students' conceptions and describes the levels of sophistication of their mental models on climate change and the greenhouse effect. The participants were 40 secondary students (grade 7) in Spain. As a method of data collection, a questionnaire was designed with open-ended questions focusing on the mechanism, causes, and actions that could be useful in reducing climate change. Students completed the same questionnaire before and after instruction. The students' conceptions and mental models were identified by an inductive and iterative analysis of the participants' explanations. With regard to the students' conceptions, the results show that they usually link climate change to an increase in temperature, and they tend to mention, even after instruction, generic actions to mitigate climate change, such as not polluting. With regard to the students' mental models, the results show an evolution of models with little consistency and coherence, such as the models on level 1, towards higher levels of sophistication. The paper concludes with educational implications proposed for solving learning difficulties regarding the greenhouse effect and climate change.

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century.

PubMed

Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

2010-09-27

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO(2) rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified.

Implications of climate change for agricultural productivity in the early twenty-first century

PubMed Central

Gornall, Jemma; Betts, Richard; Burke, Eleanor; Clark, Robin; Camp, Joanne; Willett, Kate; Wiltshire, Andrew

2010-01-01

This paper reviews recent literature concerning a wide range of processes through which climate change could potentially impact global-scale agricultural productivity, and presents projections of changes in relevant meteorological, hydrological and plant physiological quantities from a climate model ensemble to illustrate key areas of uncertainty. Few global-scale assessments have been carried out, and these are limited in their ability to capture the uncertainty in climate projections, and omit potentially important aspects such as extreme events and changes in pests and diseases. There is a lack of clarity on how climate change impacts on drought are best quantified from an agricultural perspective, with different metrics giving very different impressions of future risk. The dependence of some regional agriculture on remote rainfall, snowmelt and glaciers adds to the complexity. Indirect impacts via sea-level rise, storms and diseases have not been quantified. Perhaps most seriously, there is high uncertainty in the extent to which the direct effects of CO2 rise on plant physiology will interact with climate change in affecting productivity. At present, the aggregate impacts of climate change on global-scale agricultural productivity cannot be reliably quantified. PMID:20713397

Ozone changes under solar geoengineering: implications for UV exposure and air quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nowack, P. J.; Abraham, N. L.; Braesicke, P.; Pyle, J. A.

2015-11-01

Various forms of geoengineering have been proposed to counter anthropogenic climate change. Methods which aim to modify the Earth's energy balance by reducing insolation are often subsumed under the term Solar Radiation Management (SRM). Here, we present results of a standard SRM modelling experiment in which the incoming solar irradiance is reduced to offset the global mean warming induced by a quadrupling of atmospheric carbon dioxide. For the first time in an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate model, we include atmospheric composition feedbacks such as ozone changes under this scenario. Including the composition changes, we find large reductions in surface UV-B irradiance, with implications for vitamin D production, and increases in surface ozone concentrations, both of which could be important for human health. We highlight that both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone changes should be considered in the assessment of any SRM scheme, due to their important roles in regulating UV exposure and air quality.

Implications of global climate change for the assessment and management of human health risks of chemicals in the natural environment.

PubMed

Balbus, John M; Boxall, Alistair B A; Fenske, Richard A; McKone, Thomas E; Zeise, Lauren

2013-01-01

Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

PubMed

Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

2017-06-01

Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Narratives of dynamic lands: science education, indigenous knowledge and possible futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGinty, Megan; Bang, Megan

2016-06-01

We aim to share some of our work currently focused on understanding and unearthing the multiplicities of ways the denial of culture in relation to science and knowledge construction is embedded in issues of climate change and climate change education. The issues become more troubling when we consider how effects of climate change are manifesting locally in ways that force shifts in Indigenous ways of living while simultaneously nation-states seem to think that continued or increased control of Indigenous practice is warranted. For us, taking the implications of such approaches seriously requires significant consideration of how climate education impacts Indigenous learners and whether learning western climate science is indeed part of making real change important. In our work we have focused on the ways in which settler-colonialism and the resultant racialized hierarchies permeate science education and contribute to an expectation of human entitlement to land and a notion of land permanence.

Solar ultraviolet radiation and ozone depletion-driven climate change: effects on terrestrial ecosystems.

PubMed

Bornman, J F; Barnes, P W; Robinson, S A; Ballaré, C L; Flint, S D; Caldwell, M M

2015-01-01

In this assessment we summarise advances in our knowledge of how UV-B radiation (280-315 nm), together with other climate change factors, influence terrestrial organisms and ecosystems. We identify key uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on these systems. We also evaluate the biological consequences of the way in which stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Since the last assessment, several new findings or insights have emerged or been strengthened. These include: (1) the increasing recognition that UV-B radiation has specific regulatory roles in plant growth and development that in turn can have beneficial consequences for plant productivity via effects on plant hardiness, enhanced plant resistance to herbivores and pathogens, and improved quality of agricultural products with subsequent implications for food security; (2) UV-B radiation together with UV-A (315-400 nm) and visible (400-700 nm) radiation are significant drivers of decomposition of plant litter in globally important arid and semi-arid ecosystems, such as grasslands and deserts. This occurs through the process of photodegradation, which has implications for nutrient cycling and carbon storage, although considerable uncertainty exists in quantifying its regional and global biogeochemical significance; (3) UV radiation can contribute to climate change via its stimulation of volatile organic compounds from plants, plant litter and soils, although the magnitude, rates and spatial patterns of these emissions remain highly uncertain at present. UV-induced release of carbon from plant litter and soils may also contribute to global warming; and (4) depletion of ozone in the Southern Hemisphere modifies climate directly via effects on seasonal weather patterns (precipitation and wind) and these in turn have been linked to changes in the growth of plants across the Southern Hemisphere. Such research has broadened our understanding of the linkages that exist between the effects of ozone depletion, UV-B radiation and climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.

The threat of climate change to freshwater pearl mussel populations.

PubMed

Hastie, Lee C; Cosgrove, Peter J; Ellis, Noranne; Gaywood, Martin J

2003-02-01

Changes in climate are occurring around the world and the effects on ecosystems will vary, depending on the extent and nature of these changes. In northern Europe, experts predict that annual rainfall will increase significantly, along with dramatic storm events and flooding in the next 50-100 years. Scotland is a stronghold of the endangered freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.), and a number of populations may be threatened. For example, large floods have been shown to adversely affect mussels, and although these stochastic events were historically rare, they may now be occurring more often as a result of climate change. Populations may also be affected by a number of other factors, including predicted changes in temperature, sea level, habitat availability, host fish stocks and human activity. In this paper, we explain how climate change may impact M. margaritifera and discuss the general implications for the conservation management of this species.

Climate Change, Human Health, and Biomedical Research: Analysis of the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio

PubMed Central

Balbus, John M.; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E.; Newton, Sheila A.; Reid, Britt C.; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P.

2013-01-01

Background: According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. Objectives: In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. Methods: A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. Results: This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Conclusions: Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH’s strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health. PMID:23552460

Climate change, human health, and biomedical research: analysis of the National Institutes of Health research portfolio.

PubMed

Jessup, Christine M; Balbus, John M; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E; Newton, Sheila A; Reid, Britt C; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P

2013-04-01

According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH's strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health.

Psychological health challenges of the hill-tracts region for climate change in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Kabir, Syed Muhammad Sajjad

2018-04-01

The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the deleterious effects of climate change on psychological health of the Hill-Tracts and government to deal with these adverse psychological health impacts. Although knowledge is still limited about the connections between climate change and psychological health, the evidence is indicating that impacts can be felt at both the individual and community levels, with psychological health outcomes ranging from psychological distress, depression, and anxiety, to increased addictions and suicide rates. Drawing from 125 in-depth interviews conducted between January 2015 and October 2016 with community members and local and regional health professionals, participants reported that climate change was negatively impacting psychological health and well-being. The results stated that climate change enhanced the possibility of an increased drug, family stress, alcohol use, amplified previous traumas, psychological health stressors, and were implicated in increased potential for suicide ideation of the Hill-Tracts region in Bangladesh. These exploratory findings indicate that climate change is becoming an additional psychological health stressor for Hill-Tracks' dwellers in Bangladesh. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate change and elevated extinction rates of reptiles from Mediterranean Islands.

PubMed

Foufopoulos, Johannes; Kilpatrick, A Marm; Ives, Anthony R

2011-01-01

Recent climate change has caused the distributions of many species to shift poleward, yet few empirical studies have addressed which species will be vulnerable to longer-term climate changes. To investigate past consequences of climate change, we calculated the population extinction rates of 35 reptile species from 87 Greek land-bridge islands in the Mediterranean that occurred over the past 16,000 years. Population extinction rates were higher for those species that today have more northern distributions. We further found that northern species requiring cool, mesic habitats had less available suitable habitat among islands, implicating loss of suitable habitat in their elevated extinction rates. These extinctions occurred in the context of increasing habitat fragmentation, with islands shrinking and separating as sea levels rose. Thus, the circumstances faced by reptiles on the islands are similar to challenges for numerous species today that must cope with a changing climate while living in an increasingly human-fragmented landscape. Our island-biogeographical approach to investigating historical population extinctions gives insight into the long-term patterns of species responses to climate change.

Using simple chaotic models to interpret climate under climate change: Implications for probabilistic climate prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daron, Joseph

2010-05-01

Exploring the reliability of model based projections is an important pre-cursor to evaluating their societal relevance. In order to better inform decisions concerning adaptation (and mitigation) to climate change, we must investigate whether or not our models are capable of replicating the dynamic nature of the climate system. Whilst uncertainty is inherent within climate prediction, establishing and communicating what is plausible as opposed to what is likely is the first step to ensuring that climate sensitive systems are robust to climate change. Climate prediction centers are moving towards probabilistic projections of climate change at regional and local scales (Murphy et al., 2009). It is therefore important to understand what a probabilistic forecast means for a chaotic nonlinear dynamic system that is subject to changing forcings. It is in this context that we present the results of experiments using simple models that can be considered analogous to the more complex climate system, namely the Lorenz 1963 and Lorenz 1984 models (Lorenz, 1963; Lorenz, 1984). Whilst the search for a low-dimensional climate attractor remains illusive (Fraedrich, 1986; Sahay and Sreenivasan, 1996) the characterization of the climate system in such terms can be useful for conceptual and computational simplicity. Recognising that a change in climate is manifest in a change in the distribution of a particular climate variable (Stainforth et al., 2007), we first establish the equilibrium distributions of the Lorenz systems for certain parameter settings. Allowing the parameters to vary in time, we investigate the dependency of such distributions to initial conditions and discuss the implications for climate prediction. We argue that the role of chaos and nonlinear dynamic behaviour ought to have more prominence in the discussion of the forecasting capabilities in climate prediction. References: Fraedrich, K. Estimating the dimensions of weather and climate attractors. J. Atmos. Sci, 43, 419-432, 1986. Lorenz, E. N. Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141, 1963. Lorenz, E. N. Irregularity: a fundamental property of the atmosphere. Tellus, 36A, 98-110, 1984. Murphy, J. M., D. M. H. Sexton, G. J. Jenkins, B. B. B. Booth, C. C. Brown, R. T. Clark, M. Collins, G. R. Harris, E. J. Kendon, R. A. Betts, S. J. Brown, P. Boorman, T. P. Howard, K. A. Humphrey, M. P. McCarthy, R. E. McDonald, A. Stephens, C. Wallace, R. Warren, R. Wilby, and R. A. Wood. Uk climate projections science report: Climate change projections. 2009. Sahay, A. and K. R. Sreenivasan. The search for a low-dimensional characterization of a local climate system. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A., 354, 1715-1750, 1996. Stainforth, D. A., M. R. Allen, E. R. Tredger, and L. A. Smith. Confidence, uncertainty and decision-support relevance in climate predictions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 365, 2145-2161, 2007.

"What Controls the Structure and Stability of the Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation: Implications for Abrupt Climate Change?"

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey

2013-11-23

The central goal of this research project is to understand the properties of the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) – a topic critical for understanding climate variability and stability on a variety of timescales (from decadal to centennial and longer). Specifically, we have explored various factors that control the MOC stability and decadal variability in the Atlantic and the ocean thermal structure in general, including the possibility abrupt climate change. We have also continued efforts on improving the performance of coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs.

Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

2012-12-01

Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo change, 2) an increase in CO2 concentrations that exactly balances the forcing from land use change at the global level, and 3) a simulation combining the first two effects, resulting in net zero global-mean forcing as would occur in an idealized carbon cap-and-trade scheme that accounts for the albedo effect of land use change. The pattern of land use change that we examine is derived from an integrated assessment model that accounts for population, demographic, technological, and policy changes over the 21st century. We find significant differences in the pattern of climate change associated with each of these forcing scenarios, demonstrating the non-additivity of radiative forcing from land-use change and greenhouse gases in the context of a hypothetical scenario of future land use change. These results have implications for the development of land use and climate policies.

Updated estimates of the climate response to emissions and their policy implications (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Otto, A.; Stocker, T. F.; Frame, D. J.

2013-12-01

We review the implications of observations of the global energy budget over recent decades, particularly the 'warming hiatus' period over the 2000s, for key climate system properties including equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) and transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE). We show how estimates of the upper bound of ECS remain, as ever, sensitive to prior assumptions and also how ECS, even if it were better constrained, would provide much less information about the social cost of carbon than TCR or TCRE. Hence the excitement over recent, apparently conflicting, estimates of ECS, is almost entirely misplaced. Of greater potential policy significance is the fact that recent observations imply a modest (of order 25%) downward revision in the upper bound and most likely values of TCR and TCRE, as compared to some, but not all, of the estimates published in the mid-2000s. This is partly due to the recent reduced rate of warming, and partly due to revisions in estimates of total anthropogenic forcing to date. Both of these developments may turn out to be short-lived, so the policy implications of this modest revision in TCR/TCRE should not be over-sold: nevertheless, it is interesting to explore what they are. The implications for climate change adaptation of a 25% downward revision in TCR and TCRE are minimal, being overshadowed by uncertainty due to internal variability and non-CO2 climate forcings over typical timescales for adaptation planning. We introduce a simple framework for assessing the implications for mitigation in terms of timing of peak emissions average rates of emission reduction required to avoid specific levels of peak warming. We show that, as long as emissions continue to increase approximately exponentially, the implications for mitigation of any revisions in the climate response are surprisingly small.

Future of African terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystems under anthropogenic climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Midgley, Guy F.; Bond, William J.

2015-09-01

Projections of ecosystem and biodiversity change for Africa under climate change diverge widely. More than other continents, Africa has disturbance-driven ecosystems that diversified under low Neogene CO2 levels, in which flammable fire-dependent C4 grasses suppress trees, and mega-herbivore action alters vegetation significantly. An important consequence is metastability of vegetation state, with rapid vegetation switches occurring, some driven by anthropogenic CO2-stimulated release of trees from disturbance control. These have conflicting implications for biodiversity and carbon sequestration relevant for policymakers and land managers. Biodiversity and ecosystem change projections need to account for both disturbance control and direct climate control of vegetation structure and function.

Changes in future fire regimes under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thonicke, Kirsten; von Bloh, Werner; Lutz, Julia; Knorr, Wolfgang; Wu, Minchao; Arneth, Almut

2013-04-01

Fires are expected to change under future climate change, climatic fire is is increasing due to increase in droughts and heat waves affecting vegetation productivity and ecosystem function. Vegetation productivity influences fuel production, but can also limit fire spread. Vegetation-fire models allow investigating the interaction between wildfires and vegetation dynamics, thus non-linear effects between changes in fuel composition and production on fire as well as changes in fire regimes on fire-related plant mortality and fuel combustion. Here we present results from simulation experiments, where the vegetation-fire models LPJmL-SPITFIRE and LPJ-GUESS are applied to future climate change scenarios from regional climate models in Europe and Northern Africa. Climate change impacts on fire regimes, vegetation dynamics and carbon fluxes are quantified and presented. New fire-prone regions are mapped and changes in fire regimes of ecosystems with a long-fire history are analyzed. Fuel limitation is likely to increase in Mediterranean-type ecosystems, indicating non-linear connection between increasing fire risk and fuel production. Increased warming in temperate ecosystems in Eastern Europe and continued fuel production leads to increases not only in climatic fire risk, but also area burnt and biomass burnt. This has implications for fire management, where adaptive capacity to this new vulnerability might be limited.

A Faculty Workshop Model to Integrate Climate Change across the Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teranes, J. L.

2017-12-01

Much of the growing scientific certainty of human impacts on the climate system, and the implications of these impacts on current and future generations, have been discovered and documented in research labs in colleges and universities across the country. Often these institutions also take decisive action towards combatting climate change, by making significant reductions in greenhouse emissions and pledging to greater future reductions. Yet, there are still far too many students that graduate from these campuses without an adequate understanding of how climate change will impact them within their lifetimes and without adequate workforce preparation to implement solutions. It may be that where college and universities still have the largest influence on climate change adaption and mitigation is in the way that we educate students. Here I present a curriculum workshop model at UC San Diego that leverages faculty expertise to infuse climate change education across disciplines to enhance UC San Diego students' climate literacy, particularly for those students whose major focus is not in the geosciences. In this model, twenty faculty from a breadth of disciplines, including social sciences, humanities, arts, education, and natural sciences participated in workshops and developed curricula to infuse aspects of climate change into their existing undergraduate courses. We particularly encouraged development of climate change modules in courses in the humanities, social sciences and arts that are best positioned to address the important human and social dimensions of climate change. In this way, climate change content becomes embedded in current course offerings, including non-science courses, to increase climate literacy among a greater number and a broader cross-section of students.

A comparison of metrics for assessing state-of-the-art climate models and implications for probabilistic projections of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ring, Christoph; Pollinger, Felix; Kaspar-Ott, Irena; Hertig, Elke; Jacobeit, Jucundus; Paeth, Heiko

2018-03-01

A major task of climate science are reliable projections of climate change for the future. To enable more solid statements and to decrease the range of uncertainty, global general circulation models and regional climate models are evaluated based on a 2 × 2 contingency table approach to generate model weights. These weights are compared among different methodologies and their impact on probabilistic projections of temperature and precipitation changes is investigated. Simulated seasonal precipitation and temperature for both 50-year trends and climatological means are assessed at two spatial scales: in seven study regions around the globe and in eight sub-regions of the Mediterranean area. Overall, 24 models of phase 3 and 38 models of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project altogether 159 transient simulations of precipitation and 119 of temperature from four emissions scenarios are evaluated against the ERA-20C reanalysis over the 20th century. The results show high conformity with previous model evaluation studies. The metrics reveal that mean of precipitation and both temperature mean and trend agree well with the reference dataset and indicate improvement for the more recent ensemble mean, especially for temperature. The method is highly transferrable to a variety of further applications in climate science. Overall, there are regional differences of simulation quality, however, these are less pronounced than those between the results for 50-year mean and trend. The trend results are suitable for assigning weighting factors to climate models. Yet, the implications for probabilistic climate projections is strictly dependent on the region and season.

Meteorological Modes of Variability for Fine Particulate Matter (PM2.5) Air Quality in the United States: Implications for PM2.5 Sensitivity to Climate Change

EPA Science Inventory

We applied a multiple linear regression model to understand the relationships of PM_2.5 with meteorological variables in the contiguous US and from there to infer the sensitivity of PM_2.5 to climate change. We used 2004-2008 PM_2.5 observations fro...

Institute for Defense Analysis. Annual Report 1991.

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-01-01

demographics, or examinations of the implications of alternative U.S. policies for regions such as the Mediterranean, the Iberian Peninsula and Latin...against overall U.S. goals. Our initial research involves studies and analyses in two areas: Concepts for Near-Term Collection of Climate Change Data...understanding the nature of climate change. However, the missions in this program are not slated to begin until the end of this decade. With increasing concern

Avioserpens in the Western Grebe (Aechmophorus occidentalis): A new Host and Geographic Record for a Dracunculoid Nematode and Implications of Migration and Climate Change.

PubMed

Latas, Patricia J; Stockdale Walden, Heather D; Bates, Lisa; Marshall, Summer; Rohr, Tammy; Whitehead, Lou Rae

2016-01-01

We report a new host and geographic range for the dracunculoid nematode (Avioserpens sp.) in a Western Grebe (Aechmophorus occidentalis) from southern Arizona, US. This discovery underscores the importance of parasite discovery and identification in the wildlife rehabilitation setting. Climate change and weather events affect the migratory spread of unusual parasites.

Mountain peatlands range from CO2 sinks at high elevations to sources at low elevations: Implications for a changing climate

Treesearch

David J. Millar; David J. Cooper; Kathleen A. Dwire; Robert M. Hubbard; Joseph von Fischer

2016-01-01

Mountain fens found in western North America have sequestered atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) for millennia, provide important habitat for wildlife, and serve as refugia for regionally-rare plant species typically found in boreal regions. It is unclear how Rocky Mountain fens are responding to a changing climate. It is possible that fens found at lower elevations may...

Implications of freshwater flux data from the CMIP5 multimodel output across a set of Northern Hemisphere drainage basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bring, Arvid; Asokan, Shilpa M.; Jaramillo, Fernando; Jarsjö, Jerker; Levi, Lea; Pietroń, Jan; Prieto, Carmen; Rogberg, Peter; Destouni, Georgia

2015-06-01

The multimodel ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) synthesizes the latest research in global climate modeling. The freshwater system on land, particularly runoff, has so far been of relatively low priority in global climate models, despite the societal and ecosystem importance of freshwater changes, and the science and policy needs for such model output on drainage basin scales. Here we investigate the implications of CMIP5 multimodel ensemble output data for the freshwater system across a set of drainage basins in the Northern Hemisphere. Results of individual models vary widely, with even ensemble mean results differing greatly from observations and implying unrealistic long-term systematic changes in water storage and level within entire basins. The CMIP5 projections of basin-scale freshwater fluxes differ considerably more from observations and among models for the warm temperate study basins than for the Arctic and cold temperate study basins. In general, the results call for concerted research efforts and model developments for improving the understanding and modeling of the freshwater system and its change drivers. Specifically, more attention to basin-scale water flux analyses should be a priority for climate model development, and an important focus for relevant model-based advice for adaptation to climate change.

Climate Change Amplifications of Climate-Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mariani, Michela; Holz, Andrés.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Williamson, Grant; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2018-05-01

Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea surface temperature, and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security, and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap for undertaking suitable management and conservation plans. Our analysis of documentary fire records from Mediterranean and temperate regions across the Southern Hemisphere reveals a critical increased strength of climate-fire teleconnections during the onset of the 21st century including a tight coupling between lightning-ignited fire occurrences, the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode, and rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere.

Impacts of land use, restoration, and climate change on tropical peat carbon stocks in the twenty-first century: implications for climate mitigation

Treesearch

Matthew W. Warren; Steve Frolking; Zhaohua Dai; Sofyan Kurnianto

2016-01-01

The climate mitigation potential of tropical peatlands has gained increased attention as Southeast Asian peatlands are being deforested, drained and burned at very high rates, causing globally significant carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. We used a process-based dynamic tropical peatland model to explore peat carbon (C) dynamics...

Assessing ExxonMobil's Climate Change Communications (1977-2014)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supran, G.; Oreskes, N.

2017-12-01

Coal, oil, and gas companies have operated - and continue to operate - across myriad facets of the climate problem: scientific, political, and public. Efforts to engage the fossil fuel industry in addressing climate change should therefore be informed by this broad historical context. In this paper, we present an empirical document-by-document textual content analysis and comparison of 187 diverse climate change communications from ExxonMobil spanning 1977 to 2014, including peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed publications, internal company documents, and paid, editorial-style advertisements ("advertorials") in The New York Times. We examine whether these communications sent consistent messages about the state of climate science and its implications - specifically, we compare their positions on climate change as real, human-caused, serious, and solvable. In all four cases, we find that as documents become more publicly accessible, they increasingly communicate doubt. That is, ExxonMobil contributed to advancing climate science - by way of its scientists' academic publications - but promoted doubt about it in advertorials. Our findings shed light on one oil and gas company's multivalent strategic responses to climate change. They offer a cautionary tale against myopic engagement with the fossil fuel industry, demonstrating the importance of evaluating the full spectrum of a company's claims and activities.

Learning Across Time Scales: Science, Policy, Management, and Communication

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stewart, M. M.

2002-05-01

This presentation will draw together common themes raised in the session and discuss lessons learned across time scales and their implications for managers and policy makers concerned with both climate change and variability. Session themes will be examined in the context of the upcoming World Summit on Sustainable Development (WSSD) and considered as opportunities for linking climate change policy discussions with lessons learned from the study of adaptation on seasonal to interannual time scales. The presentation will raise questions about future research directions, discuss recommendations for promoting learning across time scales, and explore options for better communicating the links between climate change and variability.

City scale climate change policies: Do they matter for wellbeing?

PubMed

Hiscock, Rosemary; Asikainen, Arja; Tuomisto, Jouni; Jantunen, Matti; Pärjälä, Erkki; Sabel, Clive E

2017-06-01

Climate change mitigation policies aim to reduce climate change through reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions whereas adaption policies seek to enable humans to live in a world with increasingly variable and more extreme climatic conditions. It is increasingly realised that enacting such policies will have unintended implications for public health, but there has been less focus on their implications for wellbeing. Wellbeing can be defined as a positive mental state which is influenced by living conditions. As part of URGENCHE, an EU funded project to identify health and wellbeing outcomes of city greenhouse gas emission reduction policies, a survey designed to measure these living conditions and levels of wellbeing in Kuopio, Finland was collected in December 2013. Kuopio was the northmost among seven cities in Europe and China studied. Generalised estimating equation modelling was used to determine which living conditions were associated with subjective wellbeing (measured through the WHO-5 Scale). Local greenspace and spending time in nature were associated with higher levels of wellbeing whereas cold housing and poor quality indoor air were associated with lower levels of wellbeing. Thus adaption policies to increase greenspace might, in addition to reducing heat island effects, have the co-benefit of increasing wellbeing and improving housing insulation.

Slow Response or No Response? Distinguishing Non-Climatic Range Limits from Demographic Inertia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hillerislambers, J.; Anderegg, L. D. L.; Breckheimer, I.; Ford, K.; Kroiss, S.

2016-12-01

One of the greatest challenges ecologists face is forecasting how species distributions will respond to climate change. In general, species distributions have moved polewards and upslope with recent climate change (i.e. range shifts), supporting the assumption that range limits are climatically determined. However, studies also document a surprising number of species whose distributions have remained unchanged in the last 50-100 years, despite significant warming during that time period. This apparent lack of response to warming can arise for species whose range limits are determined by factors other than climate (e.g. species interactions) OR for long-lived, slow-growing, and/or dispersal-limited species whose range shifts are unable to keep pace with rapid climate change. Unfortunately, while these two possibilities are often difficult to distinguish, they have very different implications for the long-term viability of the species in question. Here, we use extensive demographic data for long-lived and slow-growing conifers collected across a large climatic gradient at Mount Rainier (WA, USA) to explore A) evidence for climatically determined range limits and B) the rate at which altitudinal distributions could shift in response to climate change in the region. In doing so, we highlight some of the complications we face in identifying whether species will be sensitive or resilient to climate change.

IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANCE SCENARIOS ON SOIL EROSION POTENTIAL IN THE UNITED STATES

EPA Science Inventory

Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMS) project that rising atmospheric concentrations of CO, and other greenhouse gases may result in lobal changes in temperature and precipitation over the next 50-100 years. quilibrium climate scenarios from 4 GCMs run under doubled CO2 c...

Effects of temperature and moisture on Mormon cricket reproduction with implications for responses to climate change

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

During the last decade, populations of flightless Mormon crickets Anabrus simplex (Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae) increased suddenly over vast areas of the western United States, suggesting that climate is an important factor driving outbreaks. Moreover summer temperatures are predicted to increase and...

Innovative Interactive Visitor Experiences Focused on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lettvin, E. E.

2011-12-01

Pacific Science Center has adopted a multi-pronged approach to introduce visitors to the concepts of climate change and linkages to human behavior in an informal science education setting. We leverage key fixed exhibit assets derived from collaborations with NOAA: Science on a Sphere and an exhibit kiosk showcasing local CO2 measurements that are adjacent on our exhibit floor. NOAA PMEL Scientists deployed a sensor at the top of the Space Needle that measures variability in atmospheric CO2 over Seattle; the kiosk showcases these near-real-time, daily, weekly and monthly measurements as well as similar observations from a NOAA buoy near Aberdeen, Washington. Displays of these data enable visitors to see first-hand varying CO2 levels in urban and remote marine environments as well as seasonal cycling. It also reveals quantifiable increases in CO2 levels over a relatively short time (~5 years). Trained interpreters help visitors understand linkages between personal behavior and corresponding CO2 footprints. Interpreters discuss connections between local and regional CO2 measurements displayed on the kiosk, and global Sphere datasets including NOAA Carbon Tracker, changing arctic sea ice coverage and sea level rise projections. Portable Discovery Carts, consisting of props and interactive, hands-on activities provide a platform for facilitated interpretation on a series of topics. We have developed two climate focused carts: 'Sinks and Sources' that examines materials and activities that produce and absorb carbon, and 'Ocean Acidification' that shows how absorption of atmospheric CO2 is changing ocean composition and its habitability for marine life. These carts can be deployed anywhere on the exhibit floor but are primarily used adjacent to the Sphere and the kiosk, making it possible to have a range of conversations about global and local CO2 levels, linkages to individual and collective behaviour and associated implications. Additional collaborations with members of the regional climate research community are showcased during regularly scheduled 'scientist spotlights' and 'research weekends'. Additional climate programs were developed targeting high school students. During the summer of 2010, 10 participants in a teen development program had summer internships with climate researchers working in horticulture, policy, arctic science and geology. The following fall, the teens hosted 4 'Family Climate Workshops' at community centers around Seattle. For these events, the teens developed hands-on activities and posters showcasing the climate research focus of their internships. These events were held in collaboration with the 'Cool School Challenge', a program that teaches how to conduct a greenhouse gas inventory and develop a corresponding action plan. The program culminated in the convening of the first 'High School Climate Change Symposium', held at Pacific Science Center. Nearly 200 teens attended on-site, and hundreds more live-streamed the event. The Symposium consisted of two panels: one focused on the scientific underpinnings of climate change and one focused on policies and implications. This innovative program provided a rare opportunity for teens to directly ask experts questions about climate change and its implications.

The Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendry, K. R.; Reis, J.; Hall, I. R.

2011-12-01

In response to the complexity and multidisciplinary nature of climate change research, the Climate Change Consortium of Wales (C3W) was formed in 2009 by the Welsh universities of Aberystwyth, Bangor, Cardiff and Swansea. Initially funded by Welsh Government, through the Higher Education Funding Council for Wales, the Countryside Council for Wales and the universities, C3W aims to bring together climate change researchers from a wide range of disciplines to explore scientific and sociological drivers, impacts and implications at local, national and international scale. The specific aims are to i) improve our fundamental understanding of the causes, nature, timing and consequences of climate change on Planet Earth's environment and on humanity, and ii) to reconfigure climate research in Wales as a recognisable centre of excellence on the world stage. In addition to improving the infrastructure for climate change research, we aim to improve communication, networking, collaborative research, and multidisciplinary data assimilation within and between the Welsh universities, and other UK and international institutions. Furthermore, C3W aims to apply its research by actively contributing towards national policy development, business development and formal and informal education activities within and beyond Wales.

Beyond exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity: A response based ecological framework to assess species climate change vulnerability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fortini, Lucas B.; Schubert, Olivia

2017-01-01

As the impacts of global climate change on species are increasingly evident, there is a clear need to adapt conservation efforts worldwide. Species vulnerability assessments (VAs) are increasingly used to summarize all relevant information to determine a species’ potential vulnerability to climate change and are frequently the first step in informing climate adaptation efforts. VAs commonly integrate multiple sources of information by utilizing a framework that distinguishes factors relevant to species exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. However, this framework was originally developed for human systems, and its use to evaluate species vulnerability has serious practical and theoretical limitations. By instead defining vulnerability as the degree to which a species is unable to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., toleration of projected changes, migration to new climate-compatible areas, enduring in microrefugia, and evolutionary adaptation), we can bring VAs into the realm of ecological science without applying borrowed abstract concepts that have consistently challenged species-centric research and management. This response-based framework to assess species vulnerability to climate change allows better integration of relevant ecological data and past research, yielding results with much clearer implications for conservation and research prioritization.

Climate Change Contribution to the Emergence or Re-Emergence of Parasitic Diseases

PubMed Central

Short, Erica E; Caminade, Cyril; Thomas, Bolaji N

2017-01-01

The connection between our environment and parasitic diseases may not always be straightforward, but it exists nonetheless. This article highlights how climate as a component of our environment, or more specifically climate change, has the capability to drive parasitic disease incidence and prevalence worldwide. There are both direct and indirect implications of climate change on the scope and distribution of parasitic organisms and their associated vectors and host species. We aim to encompass a large body of literature to demonstrate how a changing climate will perpetuate, or perhaps exacerbate, public health issues and economic stagnation due to parasitic diseases. The diseases examined include those caused by ingested protozoa and soil helminths, malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, babesiosis, schistosomiasis, and echinococcus, as well as parasites affecting livestock. It is our goal to impress on the scientific community the magnitude a changing climate can have on public health in relation to parasitic disease burden. Once impending climate changes are now upon us, and as we see these events unfold, it is critical to create management plans that will protect the health and quality of life of the people living in the communities that will be significantly affected. PMID:29317829

Climate Change Contribution to the Emergence or Re-Emergence of Parasitic Diseases.

PubMed

Short, Erica E; Caminade, Cyril; Thomas, Bolaji N

2017-01-01

The connection between our environment and parasitic diseases may not always be straightforward, but it exists nonetheless. This article highlights how climate as a component of our environment, or more specifically climate change, has the capability to drive parasitic disease incidence and prevalence worldwide. There are both direct and indirect implications of climate change on the scope and distribution of parasitic organisms and their associated vectors and host species. We aim to encompass a large body of literature to demonstrate how a changing climate will perpetuate, or perhaps exacerbate, public health issues and economic stagnation due to parasitic diseases. The diseases examined include those caused by ingested protozoa and soil helminths, malaria, lymphatic filariasis, Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, babesiosis, schistosomiasis, and echinococcus, as well as parasites affecting livestock. It is our goal to impress on the scientific community the magnitude a changing climate can have on public health in relation to parasitic disease burden. Once impending climate changes are now upon us, and as we see these events unfold, it is critical to create management plans that will protect the health and quality of life of the people living in the communities that will be significantly affected.

Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

DOE PAGES

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

2017-05-03

The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40%more » by 2050s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. As a result, this has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.« less

Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

The linkage between crop yield and climate variability has been confirmed in numerous studies using statistical approaches. A crucial assumption in these studies is that crop spatial distribution pattern is constant over time. Here, we explore how changes in county-level corn spatial distribution pattern modulate the response of its yields to climate change at the state level over the Contiguous United States. Our results show that corn yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Corn yield is predicted to decrease by 20~40%more » by 2050s when considering crop spatial distribution pattern changes, which is 6~12% less than the estimates with fixed cropping pattern. The beneficial effects are mainly achieved by reducing the negative impacts of daily maximum temperature and strengthening the positive impacts of precipitation. Our results indicate that previous empirical studies could be biased in assessing climate change impacts by ignoring the changes in crop spatial distribution pattern. As a result, this has great implications for understanding the increasing debates on whether climate change will be a net gain or loss for regional agriculture.« less

Paleoclimate and bubonic plague: a forewarning of future risk?

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J

2010-08-27

Pandemics of bubonic plague have occurred in Eurasia since the sixth century AD. Climatic variations in Central Asia affect the population size and activity of the plague bacterium's reservoir rodent species, influencing the probability of human infection. Using innovative time-series analysis of surrogate climate records spanning 1,500 years, a study in BMC Biology concludes that climatic fluctuations may have influenced these pandemics. This has potential implications for health risks from future climate change.

Recovery Migration after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita: Spatial Concentration and Intensification in the Migration System

PubMed Central

Fussell, Elizabeth; DeWaard, Jack

2015-01-01

Changes in the human migration systems of Hurricane Katrina- and Rita-affected Gulf of Mexico coastline counties provide an example of how climate change may affect coastal populations. Crude climate change models predict a mass migration of “climate refugees,” but an emerging literature on environmental migration suggests most migration will be short-distance and short-duration within existing migration systems, with implications for the population recovery of disaster-struck places. In this research, we derive a series of hypotheses on recovery migration predicting how the migration system of hurricane-affected coastline counties in the Gulf of Mexico was likely to have changed between the pre-disaster and the recovery periods. We test these hypotheses using data from the Internal Revenue Service on annual county-level migration flows, comparing the recovery period migration system (2007–2009) to the pre-disaster period (1999–2004). By observing county-to-county ties and flows we find that recovery migration was strong, as the migration system of the disaster-affected coastline counties became more spatially concentrated while flows within it intensified and became more urbanized. Our analysis demonstrates how migration systems are likely to be affected by the more intense and frequent storms anticipated by climate change scenarios with implications for the population recovery of disaster-affected places. PMID:26084982

Culture, climate change and farm-level groundwater management: An Australian case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanderson, Matthew R.; Curtis, Allen L.

2016-05-01

Cultural factors - values, beliefs, and norms - provide important insights into the environmental attitudes, risk perceptions, and behaviors of the general population. Little is known, however, about the ostensibly complex relationships linking those elements of culture to climate change risk perceptions, especially in the context of farm level decision in the ground water context. This paper addresses that gap through an analysis of survey data provided by irrigators in the Namoi catchment of Australia's Murray-Darling Basin. We use Values-Beliefs-Norms theory to construct multivariate models of the relationship between ground water irrigators' interpretations of climate change risks and their implementation of adaptive water conservation practices. Results indicate that these cultural factors are important explanations of irrigators' climate change risk perceptions, and these risk perceptions are related to adaptive ground water management strategies at the farm level. The implications of the findings are discussed for research on the culture-environment nexus and for outreach designed to encourage agricultural adaptations to climate change.

Potential Effects of Drought on Tree Dieback in Great Britain and Implications for Forest Management in Adaptation to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jianjun; Berry, Pam

2017-04-01

The drought and heat stress has alerted the composition, structure and biogeography of forests globally, whilst the projected severe and widespread droughts are potentially increasing. This challenges the sustainable forest management to better cope with future climate and maintain the forest ecosystem functions and services. Many studies have investigated the climate change impacts on forest ecosystem but less considered the climate extremes like drought. In this study, we implement a dynamic ecosystem model based on a version of LPJ-GUESS parameterized with European tree species and apply to Great Britain at a finer spatial resolution of 5*5 km. The model runs for the baseline from 1961 to 2011 and projects to the latter 21st century using 100 climate scenarios generated from MaRIUS project to tackle the climate model uncertainty. We will show the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystem and vegetation transition in Great Britain by comparing the modelled conditions in the 2030s and the 2080s relative to the baseline. In particular, by analyzing the modelled tree mortality, we will show the tree dieback patterns in response to drought for various species, and assess their drought vulnerability across Great Britain. We also use species distribution modelling to project the suitable climate space for selected tree species using the same climate scenarios. Aided by these two modelling approaches and based on the corresponding modelling results, we will discuss the implications for adaptation strategy for forest management, especially in extreme drought conditions. The gained knowledge and lessons for Great Britain are considered to be transferable in many other regions.

Climate change impacts on crop yield: evidence from China.

PubMed

Wei, Taoyuan; Cherry, Todd L; Glomrød, Solveig; Zhang, Tianyi

2014-11-15

When estimating climate change impact on crop yield, a typical assumption is constant elasticity of yield with respect to a climate variable even though the elasticity may be inconstant. After estimating both constant and inconstant elasticities with respect to temperature and precipitation based on provincial panel data in China 1980-2008, our results show that during that period, the temperature change contributes positively to total yield growth by 1.3% and 0.4% for wheat and rice, respectively, but negatively by 12% for maize. The impacts of precipitation change are marginal. We also compare our estimates with other studies and highlight the implications of the inconstant elasticities for crop yield, harvest and food security. We conclude that climate change impact on crop yield would not be an issue in China if positive impacts of other socio-economic factors continue in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Global climate change and international security.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karas, Thomas H.

2003-11-01

This report originates in a workshop held at Sandia National Laboratories, bringing together a variety of external experts with Sandia personnel to discuss 'The Implications of Global Climate Change for International Security.' Whatever the future of the current global warming trend, paleoclimatic history shows that climate change happens, sometimes abruptly. These changes can severely impact human water supplies, agriculture, migration patterns, infrastructure, financial flows, disease prevalence, and economic activity. Those impacts, in turn, can lead to national or international security problems stemming from aggravation of internal conflicts, increased poverty and inequality, exacerbation of existing international conflicts, diversion of national andmore » international resources from international security programs (military or non-military), contribution to global economic decline or collapse, or international realignments based on climate change mitigation policies. After reviewing these potential problems, the report concludes with a brief listing of some research, technology, and policy measures that might mitigate them.« less

The Influence of Climate Change Efficacy Messages and Efficacy Beliefs on Intended Political Participation.

PubMed

Hart, P Sol; Feldman, Lauren

2016-01-01

Using an online survey experiment with a national sample, this study examined how changing the type and valence of efficacy information in news stories discussing global climate change may impact intended political participation through the mediators of perceived internal, external, and response efficacy. Overall, the results revealed that after a single exposure to a news story, stories including positive internal efficacy content increased perceived internal efficacy, while stories including negative external efficacy content lowered perceived external efficacy. There were limited impacts of other types of efficacy content on perceived efficacy. Perceived internal, external, and response efficacy all offered unique, positive associations with intentions to engage in climate change-related political participation. The results suggest that news stories including positive internal efficacy information in particular have the potential to increase public engagement around climate change. The implications for science communication are discussed.

The Influence of Climate Change Efficacy Messages and Efficacy Beliefs on Intended Political Participation

PubMed Central

Hart, P. Sol; Feldman, Lauren

2016-01-01

Using an online survey experiment with a national sample, this study examined how changing the type and valence of efficacy information in news stories discussing global climate change may impact intended political participation through the mediators of perceived internal, external, and response efficacy. Overall, the results revealed that after a single exposure to a news story, stories including positive internal efficacy content increased perceived internal efficacy, while stories including negative external efficacy content lowered perceived external efficacy. There were limited impacts of other types of efficacy content on perceived efficacy. Perceived internal, external, and response efficacy all offered unique, positive associations with intentions to engage in climate change-related political participation. The results suggest that news stories including positive internal efficacy information in particular have the potential to increase public engagement around climate change. The implications for science communication are discussed. PMID:27487117

Implications of Climate Change for Glaciated Watersheds in western Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schnorbus, M.; Menounos, B.; Schoeneberg (Werner), A. T.; Anslow, F. S.; Jost, G.; Moore, R. D.

2017-12-01

The cryosphere is particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. For many catchments, glaciers provide water to streams, especially during summer and early autumn when seasonal snow packs have been depleted. Increased concentrations of greenhouse gasses will promote further warming in the decades ahead leading to strong mass loss and a continuation of the rapid retreat of alpine glaciers. Understanding how the contribution of glacier runoff may change in future has important implications for a variety of water resources issues ranging from the impacts of higher water temperatures and lower summer flows on aquatic habitat to the effects of seasonal changes in runoff on hydropower generation. Consequently, there is a need to increase understanding of the influence of glacier storage changes on runoff and streamflow in mountainous watersheds. We developed a modeling system that explicitly simulates ice dynamics, glacier mass balance and runoff. The modelling system employs an upgraded version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model (which now includes glacier mass balance) coupled to a glacier dynamics model (UBC Regional Glaciation Model) that will be used to assess potential future hydrologic changes in glaciated drainages throughout western Canada. Our presentation will focus on the application of this new model to simulate climate change effects on inflows for several hydropower reservoirs located in heavily glaciated basins in British Columbia, Canada.

Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change.

PubMed

Skagen, Susan K; Adams, Amy A Yackel

2012-06-01

The influence of recent climate change on the world's biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation; yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 3 degrees C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.

Weather effects on avian breeding performance and implications of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Yackel Adams, Amy A.

2012-01-01

The influence of recent climate change on the world’s biota has manifested broadly, resulting in latitudinal range shifts, advancing dates of arrival of migrants and onset of breeding, and altered community relationships. Climate change elevates conservation concerns worldwide because it will likely exacerbate a broad range of identified threats to animal populations. In the past few decades, grassland birds have declined faster than other North American avifauna, largely due to habitat threats such as the intensification of agriculture. We examine the effects of local climatic variations on the breeding performance of a bird endemic to the shortgrass prairie, the Lark Bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys) and discuss the implications of our findings relative to future climate predictions. Clutch size, nest survival, and productivity all positively covaried with seasonal precipitation, yet relatively intense daily precipitation events temporarily depressed daily survival of nests. Nest survival was positively related to average temperatures during the breeding season. Declining summer precipitation may reduce the likelihood that Lark Buntings can maintain stable breeding populations in eastern Colorado although average temperature increases of up to 38C (within the range of this study) may ameliorate declines in survival expected with drier conditions. Historic climate variability in the Great Plains selects for a degree of vagility and opportunism rather than strong site fidelity and specific adaptation to local environments. These traits may lead to northerly shifts in distribution if climatic and habitat conditions become less favorable in the drying southern regions of the Great Plains. Distributional shifts in Lark Buntings could be constrained by future changes in land use, agricultural practices, or vegetative communities that result in further loss of shortgrass prairie habitats.

Soil-transmitted helminthiases: implications of climate change and human behavior.

PubMed

Weaver, Haylee J; Hawdon, John M; Hoberg, Eric P

2010-12-01

Soil-transmitted helminthiases (STHs) collectively cause the highest global burden of parasitic disease after malaria and are most prevalent in the poorest communities, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Climate change is predicted to alter the physical environment through cumulative impacts of warming and extreme fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, with cascading effects on human health and wellbeing, food security and socioeconomic infrastructure. Understanding how the spectrum of climate change effects will influence STHs is therefore of critical importance to the control of the global burden of human parasitic disease. Realistic progress in the global control of STH in a changing climate requires a multidisciplinary approach that includes the sciences (e.g. thermal thresholds for parasite development and resilience) and social sciences (e.g. behavior and implementation of education and sanitation programs). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional climate change and national responsibilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko

2016-03-01

Global warming over the past several decades is now large enough that regional climate change is emerging above the noise of natural variability, especially in the summer at middle latitudes and year-round at low latitudes. Despite the small magnitude of warming relative to weather fluctuations, effects of the warming already have notable social and economic impacts. Global warming of 2 °C relative to preindustrial would shift the ‘bell curve’ defining temperature anomalies a factor of three larger than observed changes since the middle of the 20th century, with highly deleterious consequences. There is striking incongruity between the global distribution of nations principally responsible for fossil fuel CO2 emissions, known to be the main cause of climate change, and the regions suffering the greatest consequences from the warming, a fact with substantial implications for global energy and climate policies.

Justice and Equity Implications of Climate Change Adaptation: A Theoretical Evaluation Framework

PubMed Central

Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

2016-01-01

Climate change affects human health, and climate change adaptation aims to reduce these risks through infrastructural, behavioral, and technological measures. However, attributing direct human health effects to climate change adaptation is difficult, causing an ethical dilemma between the need for evidence of strategies and their precautionary implementation before such evidence has been generated. In the absence of conclusive evidence for individual adaptation strategies, alternative approaches to the measurement of adaptation effectiveness need to be developed. This article proposes a theoretical framework and a set of guiding questions to assess effects of adaptation strategies on seven domains of health determinants, including social, economic, infrastructure, institutional, community, environmental, and cultural determinants of health. Its focus on advancing gender equity and environmental justice concurrently with the implementation of health-related adaptation could serve as a template for policymakers and researchers. PMID:27618121

Arctic biodiversity: Increasing richness accompanies shrinking refugia for a cold-associated tundra fauna

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Malaney, Jason L.; Payer, David C.; Cook, J.A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2015-01-01

As ancestral biodiversity responded dynamically to late-Quaternary climate changes, so are extant organisms responding to the warming trajectory of the Anthropocene. Ecological predictive modeling, statistical hypothesis tests, and genetic signatures of demographic change can provide a powerful integrated toolset for investigating these biodiversity responses to climate change, and relative resiliency across different communities. Within the biotic province of Beringia, we analyzed specimen localities and DNA sequences from 28 mammal species associated with boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes to assess both historical distributional and evolutionary responses and then forecasted future changes based on statistical assessments of past and present trajectories, and quantified distributional and demographic changes in relation to major management regions within the study area. We addressed three sets of hypotheses associated with aspects of methodological, biological, and socio-political importance by asking (1) what is the consistency among implications of predicted changes based on the results of both ecological and evolutionary analyses; (2) what are the ecological and evolutionary implications of climate change considering either total regional diversity or distinct communities associated with major biomes; and (3) are there differences in management implications across regions? Our results indicate increasing Arctic richness through time that highlights a potential state shift across the Arctic landscape. However, within distinct ecological communities, we found a predicted decline in the range and effective population size of tundra species into several discrete refugial areas. Consistency in results based on a combination of both ecological and evolutionary approaches demonstrates increased statistical confidence by applying cross-discipline comparative analyses to conservation of biodiversity, particularly considering variable management regimes that seek to balance sustainable ecosystems with other anthropogenic values. Refugial areas for cold-adapted taxa appear to be persistent across both warm and cold climate phases and although fragmented, constitute vital regions for persistence of Arctic mammals.

Climate change and the decline of a once common bird.

PubMed

McClure, Christopher J W; Rolek, Brian W; McDonald, Kenneth; Hill, Geoffrey E

2012-02-01

Climate change is predicted to negatively impact wildlife through a variety of mechanisms including retraction of range. We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey and regional and global climate indices to examine the effects of climate change on the breeding distribution of the Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common species that is rapidly declining. We found that the range of the Rusty Blackbird retracted northward by 143 km since the 1960s and that the probability of local extinction was highest at the southern range margin. Furthermore, we found that the mean breeding latitude of the Rusty Blackbird was significant and positively correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation with a lag of six years. Because the annual distribution of the Rusty Blackbird is affected by annual weather patterns produced by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, our results support the hypothesis that directional climate change over the past 40 years is contributing to the decline of the Rusty Blackbird. Our study is the first to implicate climate change, acting through range retraction, in a major decline of a formerly common bird species.

The international politics of geoengineering: The feasibility of Plan B for tackling climate change

PubMed Central

Corry, Olaf

2017-01-01

Geoengineering technologies aim to make large-scale and deliberate interventions in the climate system possible. A typical framing is that researchers are exploring a ‘Plan B’ in case mitigation fails to avert dangerous climate change. Some options are thought to have the potential to alter the politics of climate change dramatically, yet in evaluating whether they might ultimately reduce climate risks, their political and security implications have so far not been given adequate prominence. This article puts forward what it calls the ‘security hazard’ and argues that this could be a crucial factor in determining whether a technology is able, ultimately, to reduce climate risks. Ideas about global governance of geoengineering rely on heroic assumptions about state rationality and a generally pacific international system. Moreover, if in a climate engineered world weather events become something certain states can be made directly responsible for, this may also negatively affect prospects for ‘Plan A’, i.e. an effective global agreement on mitigation. PMID:29386754

Mapping 'consistency' in India's climate change position: Dynamics and dilemmas of science diplomacy.

PubMed

Gupta, Himangana; Kohli, Ravinder Kumar; Ahluwalia, Amrik Singh

2015-10-01

India's position on climate change negotiations is likely to have far reaching implications for the success of global climate cooperation. Since the beginning of negotiations, the principle of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) remained the centerpiece of India's stand. The stand started to evolve at the 15th Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at Copenhagen in 2009, when India accepted voluntary commitments to reduce emission intensity. Though India still swears by CBDR, status of the principle in the negotiations has become doubtful after the Durban Climate Conference in 2011 committed all parties to take emission targets. This paper traces major transition points in India's negotiating position over the years and provides a descriptive context of its climate-related concerns. It analyzes the interview responses of 15 top scientists, experts, and negotiators to build upon core areas of climate change issues in India, its future role, and position in negotiations. Interviewees, in general, were in favor of protecting the carbon space for the poor who had very low emissions.

Climate change and European forests: what do we know, what are the uncertainties, and what are the implications for forest management?

PubMed

Lindner, Marcus; Fitzgerald, Joanne B; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Reyer, Christopher; Delzon, Sylvain; van der Maaten, Ernst; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Lasch, Petra; Eggers, Jeannette; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; Suckow, Felicitas; Psomas, Achilleas; Poulter, Benjamin; Hanewinkel, Marc

2014-12-15

The knowledge about potential climate change impacts on forests is continuously expanding and some changes in growth, drought induced mortality and species distribution have been observed. However despite a significant body of research, a knowledge and communication gap exists between scientists and non-scientists as to how climate change impact scenarios can be interpreted and what they imply for European forests. It is still challenging to advise forest decision makers on how best to plan for climate change as many uncertainties and unknowns remain and it is difficult to communicate these to practitioners and other decision makers while retaining emphasis on the importance of planning for adaptation. In this paper, recent developments in climate change observations and projections, observed and projected impacts on European forests and the associated uncertainties are reviewed and synthesised with a view to understanding the implications for forest management. Current impact assessments with simulation models contain several simplifications, which explain the discrepancy between results of many simulation studies and the rapidly increasing body of evidence about already observed changes in forest productivity and species distribution. In simulation models uncertainties tend to cascade onto one another; from estimating what future societies will be like and general circulation models (GCMs) at the global level, down to forest models and forest management at the local level. Individual climate change impact studies should not be uncritically used for decision-making without reflection on possible shortcomings in system understanding, model accuracy and other assumptions made. It is important for decision makers in forest management to realise that they have to take long-lasting management decisions while uncertainty about climate change impacts are still large. We discuss how to communicate about uncertainty - which is imperative for decision making - without diluting the overall message. Considering the range of possible trends and uncertainties in adaptive forest management requires expert knowledge and enhanced efforts for providing science-based decision support. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tackling extremes: challenges for ecological and evolutionary research on extreme climatic events.

PubMed

Bailey, Liam D; van de Pol, Martijn

2016-01-01

Extreme climatic events (ECEs) are predicted to become more frequent as the climate changes. A rapidly increasing number of studies - though few on animals - suggest that the biological consequences of ECEs can be severe. However, ecological research on the impacts of ECEs has been limited by a lack of cohesiveness and structure. ECEs are often poorly defined and have often been confusingly equated with climatic variability, making comparison between studies difficult. In addition, a focus on short-term studies has provided us with little information on the long-term implications of ECEs, and the descriptive and anecdotal nature of many studies has meant it is still unclear what the key research questions are. Synthesizing the current state of work is essential to identify ways to make progress. We conduct a synthesis of the literature and discuss conceptual and practical challenges faced by research on ECEs. We consider three steps to advance research. First, we discuss the importance of choosing an ECE definition and identify the pros and cons of 'climatological' and 'biological' definitions of ECEs. Secondly, we advocate research beyond short-term descriptive studies to address questions concerning the long-term implications of ECEs, focussing on selective pressures and phenotypically plastic responses and how they might differ from responses to a changing climatic mean. Finally, we encourage a greater focus on multi-event studies that help us understand the implications of changing patterns of ECEs, through the combined use of modelling, experimental and observational field studies. This study aims to open a discussion on the definitions, questions and methods currently used to study ECEs, which will lead to a more cohesive approach to future ECE research. © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2015 British Ecological Society.

What we know, do not know, and need to know about climate change vulnerability in the western Canadian Arctic: a systematic literature review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.; Pearce, Tristan

2010-01-01

This letter systematically reviews and synthesizes scientific and gray literature publications (n = 420) to identify and characterize the nature of climate change vulnerability in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region of the western Canadian Arctic and identify gaps in understanding. The literature documents widespread evidence of climate change, with implications for human and biophysical systems. Adaptations are being employed to manage changing conditions and are indicative of a high adaptive capacity. However, barriers to adaptation are evident and are expected to constrain adaptive capacity to future climate change. Continued climate change is predicted for the region, with differential exposure sensitivity for communities, groups and sectors: a function of social-economic-biophysical characteristics and projected future climatic conditions. Existing climate risks are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency, although the interaction between projected changes and socio-economic-demographic trends has not been assessed. The capacity for adapting to future climate change has also not been studied. The review identifies the importance of targeted vulnerability research that works closely with community members and other stakeholders to address research needs. Importantly, the fully categorized list of reviewed references accompanying this letter will be a valuable resource for those working or planning to work in the region, capturing climate change research published since 1990. At a broader level, the systematic review methodology offers a promising tool for climate/environmental change studies in general where there is a large and emerging body of research but limited understanding of research gaps and needs.

Carbon dioxide emission implications if hydrofluorocarbons are regulated: a refrigeration case study.

PubMed

Blowers, Paul; Lownsbury, James M

2010-03-01

The U.S. is strongly considering regulating hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) due to their global climate change forcing effects. A drop-in replacement hydrofluoroether has been evaluated using a gate-to-grave life cycle assessment of greenhouse gas emissions for the trade-offs between direct and indirect carbon dioxide equivalent emissions compared to a current HFC and a historically used refrigerant. The results indicate current regulations being considered may increase global climate change.

Characterizing the "Time of Emergence" of Air Quality Climate Penalties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rothenberg, D. A.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Solomon, S.; Selin, N. E.

2017-12-01

By driving not only local changes in temperature, but also precipitation and regional-scale changes in seasonal circulation patterns, climate change can directly and indirectly influence changes in air quality and its extremes. These changes - often referred to as "climate penalties" - can have important implications for human health, which is often targeted when assessing the potential co-benefits of climate policy. But because climate penalties are driven by slow, spatially-varying, temporal changes in the climate system, their emergence in the real world should also have a spatio-temporal component following regional variability in background air quality. In this work, we attempt to estimate the spatially-varying "time of emergence" of climate penalty signals by using an ensemble modeling framework based on the MIT Integrated Global System Model (MIT IGSM). With this framework we assess three climate policy scenarios assuming three different underlying climate sensitivities, and conduct a 5-member ensemble for each case to capture internal variability within the model. These simulations are used to drive offline chemical transport modeling (using CAM-Chem and GEOS-Chem). In these simulations, we find that the air quality response to climate change can vary dramatically across different regions of the globe. To analyze these regionally-varying climate signals, we employ a hierarchical clustering technique to identify regions with similar seasonal patterns of air quality change. Our simulations suggest that the earliest emergence of ozone climate penalties would occur in Southern Europe (by 2035), should the world neglect climate change and rely on a "business-as-usual" emissions policy. However, even modest climate policy dramatically pushes back the time of emergence of these penalties - to beyond 2100 - across most of the globe. The emergence of climate-forced changes in PM2.5 are much more difficult to detect, partially owing to the large role that changes in the frequency and spatial distribution of precipitation play in limiting the accumulation and duration of particulate pollution episodes.

Global dimming and brightening: A review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Martin

2009-05-01

There is increasing evidence that the amount of solar radiation incident at the Earth's surface is not stable over the years but undergoes significant decadal variations. Here I review the evidence for these changes, their magnitude, their possible causes, their representation in climate models, and their potential implications for climate change. The various studies analyzing long-term records of surface radiation measurements suggest a widespread decrease in surface solar radiation between the 1950s and 1980s ("global dimming"), with a partial recovery more recently at many locations ("brightening"). There are also some indications for an "early brightening" in the first part of the 20th century. These variations are in line with independent long-term observations of sunshine duration, diurnal temperature range, pan evaporation, and, more recently, satellite-derived estimates, which add credibility to the existence of these changes and their larger-scale significance. Current climate models, in general, tend to simulate these decadal variations to a much lesser degree. The origins of these variations are internal to the Earth's atmosphere and not externally forced by the Sun. Variations are not only found under cloudy but also under cloud-free atmospheres, indicative of an anthropogenic contribution through changes in aerosol emissions governed by economic developments and air pollution regulations. The relative importance of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud interactions may differ depending on region and pollution level. Highlighted are further potential implications of dimming and brightening for climate change, which may affect global warming, the components and intensity of the hydrological cycle, the carbon cycle, and the cryosphere among other climate elements.

Impacts of climate change on forest phenology and implications for streamflow in the central Appalachian Mountains region, United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zegre, N.; Gaertner, B. A.; Fernandez, R.

2016-12-01

The timing of phenological parameters such as spring onset and autumn senescence are important controls on the partitioning of water into evaporation and streamflow. Climate largely drives seasonal characteristics of plants and changes in phenological timing can be used to detect the impacts of climate change on water balance controls. However, limited phenological research is available for regions dominated by forest cover such as the central Appalachian Mountains region of the United States. To quantify the impacts of climate change on phenological timing and streamflow in this region, we used GIMMS AVHRR NDVI 13g data from 1982-2012 and the TIMESAT program to extract seasonality parameters. Results show that spring onset has advanced by 9 days, autumn senescence has been delayed by 11 days, and growing season has lengthened by 20 days. Above 500 m elevation, spring onset occurs 2-3 days later; fall senescence arrives 1-2 days earlier, and growing season shortens by 3-5 days. Streamflow has decreased during the growing season over the 31-year study period throughout the region, with the most pronounced effects for the Tennessee River watershed, the southernmost reach of the study area. The elevation patterns are in general agreement with Hopkins law, which states a one-day delay in spring onset for every 30-meter increase in elevation. Streamflow patterns suggest that the southern central Appalachian region is sensitive to changes in climate and are becoming drier, having important implications for drinking water supply, forest ecosystem management, ecosystem services including drinking water supply, and overall forest health.

An ill wind? Climate change, migration, and health.

PubMed

McMichael, Celia; Barnett, Jon; McMichael, Anthony J

2012-05-01

Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move. In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response. This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change. Climate-change-related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains. Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change.

IMPLICATIONS OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE FOR THE ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF HUMAN HEALTH RISKS OF CHEMICALS IN THE NATURAL ENVIRONMENT

PubMed Central

Balbus, John M; Boxall, Alistair BA; Fenske, Richard A; McKone, Thomas E; Zeise, Lauren

2013-01-01

Global climate change (GCC) is likely to alter the degree of human exposure to pollutants and the response of human populations to these exposures, meaning that risks of pollutants could change in the future. The present study, therefore, explores how GCC might affect the different steps in the pathway from a chemical source in the environment through to impacts on human health and evaluates the implications for existing risk-assessment and management practices. In certain parts of the world, GCC is predicted to increase the level of exposure of many environmental pollutants due to direct and indirect effects on the use patterns and transport and fate of chemicals. Changes in human behavior will also affect how humans come into contact with contaminated air, water, and food. Dietary changes, psychosocial stress, and coexposure to stressors such as high temperatures are likely to increase the vulnerability of humans to chemicals. These changes are likely to have significant implications for current practices for chemical assessment. Assumptions used in current exposure-assessment models may no longer apply, and existing monitoring methods may not be robust enough to detect adverse episodic changes in exposures. Organizations responsible for the assessment and management of health risks of chemicals therefore need to be more proactive and consider the implications of GCC for their procedures and processes. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:62–78. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23147420

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hemer, M.; Lionello, Piero; Mendez, Fernando J.; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan; Wolf, Judith

2015-01-01

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

Stream isotherm shifts from climate change and implications for distributions of ectothermic organisms

Treesearch

Daniel J. Isaak; Bruce E. Rieman

2013-01-01

Stream ecosystems are especially vulnerable to climate warming because most aquatic organisms are ectothermic and live in dendritic networks that are easily fragmented. Many bioclimatic models predict significant range contractions in stream biotas, but subsequent biological assessments have rarely been done to determine the accuracy of these predictions. Assessments...

The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China.

PubMed

Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Xun, Bin; Sun, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

2014-01-01

Climate changes may have immediate implications for forest productivity and may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions in the future. Quantifying these implications is significant for both scientists and managers. Cunninghamia lanceolata is an important coniferous timber species due to its fast growth and wide distribution in China. This paper proposes a methodology aiming at enhancing the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata against a background of climate change. First, we simulated the potential distributions and establishment probabilities of C. lanceolata based on a species distribution model. Second, a process-based model, the PnET-II model, was calibrated and its parameterization of water balance improved. Finally, the improved PnET-II model was used to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of C. lanceolata. The simulated NPP and potential distribution were combined to produce an integrated indicator, the estimated total NPP, which serves to comprehensively characterize the productivity of the forest under climate change. The results of the analysis showed that (1) the distribution of C. lanceolata will increase in central China, but the mean probability of establishment will decrease in the 2050s; (2) the PnET-II model was improved, calibrated, and successfully validated for the simulation of the NPP of C. lanceolata in China; and (3) all scenarios predicted a reduction in total NPP in the 2050s, with a markedly lower reduction under the a2 scenario than under the b2 scenario. The changes in NPP suggested that forest productivity will show a large decrease in southern China and a mild increase in central China. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function and could provide a basis for policy-makers to apply adaptive measures and overcome the unfavorable influences of climate change.

Impact of anthropogenic climate change and human activities on environment and ecosystem services in arid regions.

PubMed

Mahmoud, Shereif H; Gan, Thian Y

2018-08-15

The implications of anthropogenic climate change, human activities and land use change (LUC) on the environment and ecosystem services in the coastal regions of Saudi Arabia were analyzed. Earth observations data was used to drive land use categories between 1970 and 2014. Next, a Markov-CA model was developed to characterize the dynamic of LUC between 2014 and 2100 and their impacts on regions' climate and environment. Non-parametric change point and trend detection algorithms were applied to temperature, precipitation and greenhouse gases data to investigate the presence of anthropogenic climate change. Lastly, climate models were used to project future climate change between 2014 and 2100. The analysis of LUC revealed that between 1970 and 2014, built up areas experienced the greatest growth during the study period, leading to a significant monotonic trend. Urban areas increased by 2349.61km 2 between 1970 and 2014, an average increase of >53.4km 2 /yr. The projected LUC between 2014 and 2100 indicate a continued increase in urban areas and irrigated cropland. Human alteration of land use from natural vegetation and forests to other uses after 1970, resulted in a loss, degradation, and fragmentation, all of which usually have devastating effects on the biodiversity of the region. Resulting in a statistically significant change point in temperature anomaly after 1968 with a warming trend of 0.24°C/decade and a downward trend in precipitation anomaly of 12.2mm/decade. Total greenhouse gas emissions including all anthropogenic sources showed a statistically significant positive trend of 78,090Kt/decade after 1991. This is reflected in the future projection of temperature anomaly between 1900 and 2100 with a future warming trend of 0.19°C/decade. In conclusion, human activities, industrial revelation, deforestation, land use transformation and increase in greenhouse gases had significant implications on the environment and ecosystem services of the study area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Human Impacts on the Hydrologic Cycle: Comparing Global Climate Change and Local Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, I. M.; Maxwell, R. M.

2010-12-01

Anthropogenic climate change is significantly altering the hydrologic cycle at global and regional scales, with potentially devastating impacts on water resources. Recent studies demonstrate that hydrologic response to climate change will depend on local-scale feedbacks between groundwater, surface water, and land surface processes. These studies suggest that local water management practices that alter the quantity and distribution of water in the terrestrial system—e.g., groundwater pumping and irrigation—may also feed back across the hydrologic cycle, with impacts on land-atmosphere fluxes and thus weather and climate. Here we use an integrated hydrologic model to compare the impacts of large-scale climate change and local water management practices on water and energy budgets at local and watershed scales. We consider three climate scenarios (hot, hot+wet, and hot+dry) and three management scenarios (pumping only, irrigation only, and pumping+irrigation). Results demonstrate that impacts of local water management on basin-integrated groundwater storage, evapotranspiration, and stream discharge are comparable to those of changing climate conditions. However, impacts of climate change are shown to have a smaller magnitude and greater spatial extent, while impacts of pumping and irrigation are shown to have a greater magnitude but are local to areas where pumping and irrigation occur. These results have important implications regarding the scales of human impacts on both water resources and climate and the sustainability of water resources.

Climate change influences on marine infectious diseases: implications for management and society

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burge, Colleen A.; Eakin, C. Mark; Friedman, Carolyn S.; Froelich, Brett; Hershberger, Paul K.; Hofmann, Eileen E.; Petes, Laura E.; Prager, Katherine C.; Weil, Ernesto; Willis, Bette L.; Ford, Susan E.; Harvell, C. Drew

2014-01-01

Infectious diseases are common in marine environments, but the effects of a changing climate on marine pathogens are not well understood. Here, we focus on reviewing current knowledge about how the climate drives hostpathogen interactions and infectious disease outbreaks. Climate-related impacts on marine diseases are being documented in corals, shellfish, finfish, and humans; these impacts are less clearly linked to other organisms. Oceans and people are inextricably linked, and marine diseases can both directly and indirectly affect human health, livelihoods, and well-being. We recommend an adaptive management approach to better increase the resilience of ocean systems vulnerable to marine diseases in a changing climate. Land-based management methods of quarantining, culling, and vaccinating are not successful in the ocean; therefore, forecasting conditions that lead to outbreaks and designing tools/approaches to influence these conditions may be the best way to manage marine disease.

Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

PubMed

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

2013-01-01

Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare

PubMed Central

Shields, Sara; Orme-Evans, Geoffrey

2015-01-01

Simple Summary Climate change is probably the most important environmental issue of our time. Raising animals for food contributes to the production of greenhouse gases implicated in the global warming that is causing climate change. To combat this ecological disaster, a number of mitigation strategies involving changes to agricultural practices have been proposed. However, some of these changes will impact the welfare of farmed animals. This paper reviews selected climate change mitigation strategies and explains how different approaches could have negative or positive effects. Abstract The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture. PMID:26479240

Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios.

PubMed

Welsch, Daniel L; Cosby, B Jack; Hornberger, George M

2006-08-31

Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 microeq L-1) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 microeq L-1). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions.

Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation.

PubMed

Rohr, Jason R; Raffel, Thomas R; Blaustein, Andrew R; Johnson, Pieter T J; Paull, Sara H; Young, Suzanne

2013-01-01

Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host-parasite interactions are generally mediated by physiological responses, we submit that physiological models could facilitate the prediction of how host-parasite interactions will respond to climate change, and might offer theoretical and terminological cohesion that has been lacking in the climate change-disease literature. We stress that much of the work on how climate influences host-parasite interactions has emphasized changes in climatic means, despite a hallmark of climate change being changes in climatic variability and extremes. Owing to this gap, we highlight how temporal variability in weather, coupled with non-linearities in responses to mean climate, can be used to predict the effects of climate on host-parasite interactions. We also discuss the climate variability hypothesis for disease-related declines, which posits that increased unpredictable temperature variability might provide a temporary advantage to pathogens because they are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, allowing more rapid acclimatization following a temperature shift. In support of these hypotheses, we provide case studies on the role of climatic variability in host population declines associated with the emergence of the infectious diseases chytridiomycosis, withering syndrome, and malaria. Finally, we present a mathematical model that provides the scaffolding to integrate metabolic theory, physiological mechanisms, and large-scale spatiotemporal processes to predict how simultaneous changes in climatic means, variances, and extremes will affect host-parasite interactions. However, several outstanding questions remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations.

Ecosystem-based management of coastal zones in face of climate change impacts: Challenges and inequalities.

PubMed

Fernandino, Gerson; Elliff, Carla I; Silva, Iracema R

2018-06-01

Climate change effects have the potential of affecting both ocean and atmospheric processes. These changes pose serious threats to the millions of people that live by the coast. Thus, the objective of the present review is to discuss how climate change is altering (and will continue to alter) atmospheric and oceanic processes, what are the main implications of these alterations along the coastline, and which are the ecosystem-based management (EBM) strategies that have been proposed and applied to address these issues. While ocean warming, ocean acidification and increasing sea level have been more extensively studied, investigations on the effects of climate change to wind and wave climates are less frequent. Coastal ecosystems and their respective natural resources will respond differently according to location, environmental drivers and coastal processes. EBM strategies have mostly concentrated on improving ecosystem services, which can be used to assist in mitigating climate change effects. The main challenge for developing nations regards gaps in information and scarcity of resources. Thus, for effective management and adaptive EBM strategies to be developed worldwide, information at a local level is greatly needed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate Changes and Human Health: A Review of the Effect of Environmental Stressors on Cardiovascular Diseases Across Epidemiology and Biological Mechanisms.

PubMed

Giorgini, Paolo; Di Giosia, Paolo; Petrarca, Marco; Lattanzio, Francesco; Stamerra, Cosimo Andrea; Ferri, Claudio

2017-01-01

Climate change is rapidly affecting all the regions of our planet. The most relevant example is global warming, which impacts on the earth's ecosystems, threatening human health. Other effects include extreme variations in temperature and increases in air pollution. These events may negatively impact mortality and morbidity for cardiovascular diseases. In this review, we discuss the main effects of climate changes on cardiovascular diseases, reporting the epidemiological evidences and the biological mechanisms linking climate change consequences to hypertension, diabetes, ischemic heart diseases, heart failure and stroke. Up to now, findings suggest that humans acclimate under different weather conditions, even though extreme temperatures and higher levels of air pollution can influence health-related outcomes. In these cases, climate change adversely affects cardiovascular system and the high-risk subjects for cardiovascular diseases are those more exposed. Finally, we examine climate change implications on publich health and suggest adaptation strategies to monitor the high-risk population, and reduce the amount of hospital admissions associated to these events. Such interventions may minimize the costs of public health and reduce the mortality for cardiovascular diseases. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

The impact of global warming on the range distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata.

PubMed

Güizado-Rodríguez, Martha Anahí; Ballesteros-Barrera, Claudia; Casas-Andreu, Gustavo; Barradas-Miranda, Victor Luis; Téllez-Valdés, Oswaldo; Salgado-Ugarte, Isaías Hazarmabeth

2012-12-01

The ectothermic nature of reptiles makes them especially sensitive to global warming. Although climate change and its implications are a frequent topic of detailed studies, most of these studies are carried out without making a distinction between populations. Here we present the first study of an Aspidoscelis species that evaluates the effects of global warming on its distribution using ecological niche modeling. The aims of our study were (1) to understand whether predicted warmer climatic conditions affect the geographic potential distribution of different climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata and (2) to identify potential altitudinal changes of these groups under global warming. We used the maximum entropy species distribution model (MaxEnt) to project the potential distributions expected for the years 2020, 2050, and 2080 under a single simulated climatic scenario. Our analysis suggests that some climatic groups of Aspidoscelis costata costata will exhibit reductions and in others expansions in their distribution, with potential upward shifts toward higher elevation in response to climate warming. Different climatic groups were revealed in our analysis that subsequently showed heterogeneous responses to climatic change illustrating the complex nature of species geographic responses to environmental change and the importance of modeling climatic or geographic groups and/or populations instead of the entire species' range treated as a homogeneous entity.

Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.

2010-04-01

Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-modelmore » ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.« less

Implication of Agricultural Land Use Change on Regional Climate Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Agricultural land use plays an important role in land-atmosphere interaction. Agricultural activity is one of the most important processes driving human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) in a region. In addition to future socioeconomic changes, climate-induced changes in crop yield represent another important factor shaping agricultural land use. In feedback, the resulting LULCC influences the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. Therefore, assessment of climate change impact on future agricultural land use and its feedback is of great importance in climate change study. In this study, to evaluate the feedback of projected land use changes to the regional climate in West Africa, we employed an asynchronous coupling between a regional climate model (RegCM) and a prototype land use projection model (LandPro). The LandPro model, which was developed to project the future change in agricultural land use and the resulting shift in natural vegetation in West Africa, is a spatially explicit model that can account for both climate and socioeconomic changes in projecting future land use changes. In the asynchronously coupled modeling framework, LandPro was run for every five years during the period of 2005-2050 accounting for climate-induced change in crop yield and socioeconomic changes to project the land use pattern by the mid-21st century. Climate data at 0.5˚ was derived from RegCM to drive the crop model DSSAT for each of the five-year periods to simulate crop yields, which was then provided as input data to LandPro. Subsequently, the land use land cover map required to run RegCM was updated every five years using the outputs from the LandPro simulations. Results from the coupled model simulations improve the understanding of climate change impact on future land use and the resulting feedback to regional climate.

Considering Students' Out-of-School Lives and Values in Designing Learning Environments for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, E.; Tsurusaki, B.

2012-12-01

What are the implications of social controversy for the teaching and learning of climate change science? How do the political dimensions of this controversy affect learners' attitudes towards and reasoning about climate change and climate science? Case studies from a pilot enactment of an ecological impacts of climate change curriculum explore these questions by describing how five high school students' understandings of climate change science developed at the intersection of political and scientific values, attitudes, and ways of knowing. Case studies combine qualitative, ethnographic methods including interviews and classroom video observations with quantitative pre/post-assessments of student conceptual understandings and weekly surveys of student engagement. Data indicate that students had initial perceptions of climate change informed by the media and their families—both supporting and rejecting the scientific consensus—that influenced how they engaged with the scientific evidence. While students who were initially antagonistic to anthropogenic climate change did develop conceptual understandings of the scientific evidence for human-influences on climate change, this work was challenging and at times frustrating for them. These case studies demonstrate the wide range of initial attitudes and understandings that students bring to the study of climate change. They also demonstrate that it is possible to make significant shifts in students' understandings of climate change science, even in students who were initially resistant to the idea of anthropogenic climate change. Finally, multiple case studies discuss ways that the learning that occurred in the classroom crossed out of the classroom into the students' homes and family talk. This work highlights how learners' pathways are shaped not only by their developing understanding of the scientific evidence but also by the political and social influences that learners navigate across the contexts of their lives. It underscores the need to understand and support students as they interact with climate change across the contexts of their lives.

Climate change and human health: what are the research trends? A scoping review protocol.

PubMed

Herlihy, Niamh; Bar-Hen, Avner; Verner, Glenn; Fischer, Helen; Sauerborn, Rainer; Depoux, Anneliese; Flahault, Antoine; Schütte, Stefanie

2016-12-23

For 28 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been assessing the potential risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. Although interest in climate change and health is growing, the implications arising from their interaction remain understudied. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be key step in inciting some of the changes necessary to decelerate global warming. A long-term and broad overview of the existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. In this paper we outline our methods to conduct a scoping review of the published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health between 1990 and 2015. A detailed search strategy will be used to search the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied in order to capture the most relevant literature in the time frame chosen. Data will be extracted, categorised and coded to allow for statistical analysis of the results. No ethical approval was required for this study. A searchable database of climate change and health publications will be developed and a manuscript will be complied for publication and dissemination of the findings. We anticipate that this study will allow us to map the trends observed in publications over the 25-year time period in climate change and health research. It will also identify the research areas with the highest volume of publications as well as highlight the research trends in climate change and health. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Climate change and human health: what are the research trends? A scoping review protocol

PubMed Central

Herlihy, Niamh; Bar-Hen, Avner; Verner, Glenn; Fischer, Helen; Sauerborn, Rainer; Depoux, Anneliese; Flahault, Antoine; Schütte, Stefanie

2016-01-01

Introduction For 28 years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been assessing the potential risks associated with anthropogenic climate change. Although interest in climate change and health is growing, the implications arising from their interaction remain understudied. Generating a greater understanding of the health impacts of climate change could be key step in inciting some of the changes necessary to decelerate global warming. A long-term and broad overview of the existing scientific literature in the field of climate change and health is currently missing in order to ensure that all priority areas are being adequately addressed. In this paper we outline our methods to conduct a scoping review of the published peer-reviewed literature on climate change and health between 1990 and 2015. Methods and analysis A detailed search strategy will be used to search the PubMed and Web of Science databases. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria will be applied in order to capture the most relevant literature in the time frame chosen. Data will be extracted, categorised and coded to allow for statistical analysis of the results. Ethics and dissemination No ethical approval was required for this study. A searchable database of climate change and health publications will be developed and a manuscript will be complied for publication and dissemination of the findings. We anticipate that this study will allow us to map the trends observed in publications over the 25-year time period in climate change and health research. It will also identify the research areas with the highest volume of publications as well as highlight the research trends in climate change and health. PMID:28011805

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

Response of waves and coastline evolution to climate variability off the Niger Delta coast during the past 110 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dada, Olusegun A.; Li, Guangxue; Qiao, Lulu; Ma, Yanyan; Ding, Dong; Xu, Jishang; Li, Pin; Yang, Jichao

2016-08-01

River deltas, low-lying landforms that host critical economic infrastructures and diverse ecosystems as well as high concentrations of human population, are highly vulnerable to the effects of global climate change. In order to understand the wave climate, their potential changes and implication on coastline evolution for environment monitoring and sustainable management of the Niger Delta in the Gulf of Guinea, an investigation was carried out based on offshore wave statistics of an 110-year time series (1900-2010) dataset obtained from the ECMWF ERA-20C atmospheric reanalysis. Results of multivariate regression analyses indicate that interannual mean values of Hs and Tm trends tended to increase over time, especially in the western part of the delta coast, so that they are presently (1980 and 2010) up to 264 mm (300%) and 0.32 s (22%), respectively, higher than 80 years (1900-1930) ago. The maximum directions of the wave have become more westerly (southward) than southerly (westward) by up to 2° (33%) and the mean longshore sediment transport rate has increased by more than 8% over the last 80 years. The linear regression analysis for shoreline changes from 1987 to 2013 shows an erosional trend at the western part of the delta and accretional trends towards eastern part. The relationship between wave climate of the study area and atmospheric circulation using Pearson's correlation shows that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), East Atlantic pattern (EA) and El-Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Index explain significant proportion of the seasonal and annual wave variabilities compared to other indices. But it is most likely that the combination of these climatic indices acting together or separately constitutes a powerful and effective mechanism responsible for much of the variability of the offshore Niger Delta wave climate. The study concludes that changing wave climate off the Niger Delta has strong implications on the delta coastline changes. However, other processes (such as fluvial discharge variability due climatic variability and anthropogenic effect) may be acting concomitantly with changes in wave regime and associated littoral transport to influence shoreline evolution along the Niger Delta coast.

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective

PubMed Central

Suk, Jonathan E

2017-01-01

Abstract Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction. PMID:29149298

Vector-borne diseases and climate change: a European perspective.

PubMed

Semenza, Jan C; Suk, Jonathan E

2018-02-01

Climate change has already impacted the transmission of a wide range of vector-borne diseases in Europe, and it will continue to do so in the coming decades. Climate change has been implicated in the observed shift of ticks to elevated altitudes and latitudes, notably including the Ixodes ricinus tick species that is a vector for Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is also thought to have been a factor in the expansion of other important disease vectors in Europe: Aedes albopictus (the Asian tiger mosquito), which transmits diseases such as Zika, dengue and chikungunya, and Phlebotomus sandfly species, which transmits diseases including Leishmaniasis. In addition, highly elevated temperatures in the summer of 2010 have been associated with an epidemic of West Nile Fever in Southeast Europe and subsequent outbreaks have been linked to summer temperature anomalies. Future climate-sensitive health impacts are challenging to project quantitatively, in part due to the intricate interplay between non-climatic and climatic drivers, weather-sensitive pathogens and climate-change adaptation. Moreover, globalisation and international air travel contribute to pathogen and vector dispersion internationally. Nevertheless, monitoring forecasts of meteorological conditions can help detect epidemic precursors of vector-borne disease outbreaks and serve as early warning systems for risk reduction. © FEMS 2017.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carey, Michael P.; Zimmerman, Christian E.

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska

PubMed Central

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-01-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic. PMID:24963391

Physiological and ecological effects of increasing temperature on fish production in lakes of Arctic Alaska.

PubMed

Carey, Michael P; Zimmerman, Christian E

2014-05-01

Lake ecosystems in the Arctic are changing rapidly due to climate warming. Lakes are sensitive integrators of climate-induced changes and prominent features across the Arctic landscape, especially in lowland permafrost regions such as the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. Despite many studies on the implications of climate warming, how fish populations will respond to lake changes is uncertain for Arctic ecosystems. Least Cisco (Coregonus sardinella) is a bellwether for Arctic lakes as an important consumer and prey resource. To explore the consequences of climate warming, we used a bioenergetics model to simulate changes in Least Cisco production under future climate scenarios for lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain. First, we used current temperatures to fit Least Cisco consumption to observed annual growth. We then estimated growth, holding food availability, and then feeding rate constant, for future projections of temperature. Projected warmer water temperatures resulted in reduced Least Cisco production, especially for larger size classes, when food availability was held constant. While holding feeding rate constant, production of Least Cisco increased under all future scenarios with progressively more growth in warmer temperatures. Higher variability occurred with longer projections of time mirroring the expanding uncertainty in climate predictions further into the future. In addition to direct temperature effects on Least Cisco growth, we also considered changes in lake ice phenology and prey resources for Least Cisco. A shorter period of ice cover resulted in increased production, similar to warming temperatures. Altering prey quality had a larger effect on fish production in summer than winter and increased relative growth of younger rather than older age classes of Least Cisco. Overall, we predicted increased production of Least Cisco due to climate warming in lakes of Arctic Alaska. Understanding the implications of increased production of Least Cisco to the entire food web will be necessary to predict ecosystem responses in lakes of the Arctic.

Climate and Pest-Driven Geographic Shifts in Global Coffee Production: Implications for Forest Cover, Biodiversity and Carbon Storage

PubMed Central

Magrach, Ainhoa; Ghazoul, Jaboury

2015-01-01

Coffee is highly sensitive to temperature and rainfall, making its cultivation vulnerable to geographic shifts in response to a changing climate. This could lead to the establishment of coffee plantations in new areas and potential conflicts with other land covers including natural forest, with consequent implications for biodiversity and ecosystem services. We project areas suitable for future coffee cultivation based on several climate scenarios and expected responses of the coffee berry borer, a principle pest of coffee crops. We show that the global climatically-suitable area will suffer marked shifts from some current major centres of cultivation. Most areas will be suited to Robusta coffee, demand for which could be met without incurring forest encroachment. The cultivation of Arabica, which represents 70% of consumed coffee, can also be accommodated in the future, but only by incurring some natural forest loss. This has corresponding implications for carbon storage, and is likely to affect areas currently designated as priority areas for biodiversity. Where Arabica coffee does encroach on natural forests, we project average local losses of 35% of threatened vertebrate species. The interaction of climate and coffee berry borer greatly influences projected outcomes. PMID:26177201

Climate-Change Impacts on Major Societal and Environmental Sectors: a National View

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melillo, J. M.

2009-05-01

The U.S. Climate Change Science Program's Unified Synthesis Product reports on extant and possible future impacts of climate change for seven sectors at the national level - water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The sectoral analyses provide an integrated national picture of the climate-change consequences, now and in the future, for society and the environment, albeit a picture with regional texture. Major report findings for each sector will be presented. In addition to the specific sectoral findings, several overarching messages emerge from this component of the synthesis activity. First, it is important to think about interactions between and among sectors with regard to climate impacts. For example, the projected changes in the timing and amount of precipitation, and hence water supply, will very likely have significant implications for other sectors considered in the report. Changes in water supply have the potential to affect hydropower generation, river transportation, crop timing and management, in-stream ecosystem services including fish habitat, and human health issues related to links between heavy rains ad water-borne diseases. Second, the report concludes that climate-change impacts on the sectors must be considered in the context of a range of environmental and social factors including pollution, population growth, over use of resources, and urbanization. The multi-factor analysis provides insight into our understanding of where, when and how climate change combines with other environmental and social changes to affect the sectors. It also provides some understanding of how these interactions can either amplify or dampen climate-change impacts. This message has profound implications for the design of research programs and information systems at the national, regional and local levels. Furthermore, it demands that a true partnership be forged between the natural and social sciences to more adequately conduct assessments and seek solutions that address the complex challenges that multiple stresses pose. Third, the report notes that the United States is connected to a world that is unevenly vulnerable to climate change and thus will be affected by impacts globally. One example is agriculture. The degree to which climate change affects food production across the globe will affect the demand for our agricultural products and so the profitability of this sector. Fourth, the report highlights the importance of considering the unintended consequences of adaptation measures designed to avert or minimize negative impacts of climate change on various sectors. For example, the "hardening" of coastlines with sea walls and other structures to protect transportation infrastructure against storm surge and sea-level rise eliminates the ability of coastal ecosystems to adapt to these aspects of climate change by inward migration. While this "tradeoff" may be essential, it must be understood that with the loss of coastal ecosystems such as marshlands, comes the loss of the services they provide to society such as their function as nurseries for juvenile fish stocks that are essential for the sustainability of coastal fisheries. The general message about unintended consequences is that system-level analyses must be part of developing intelligent adaptation strategies to meet the challenges of climate change.

Climate Change Implications to the Global Security Environment, U.S. Interests, and Future Naval Operations

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-14

humanitarian and disaster relief operations, which the Navy increasingly is called upon to respond. In my research, I found that the U.S. Gover ;unent...dependent upon tourism will be affected disproportionately economically. A country’s political. climate can quickly and drastically change in a health... tourism , and the potential fuel savings for commercial shipping by transiting the Northern Sea during ice-free conditions make the Arctic particularly

Sensitivity of river fishes to climate change: The role of hydrological stressors on habitat range shifts.

PubMed

Segurado, Pedro; Branco, Paulo; Jauch, Eduardo; Neves, Ramiro; Ferreira, M Teresa

2016-08-15

Climate change will predictably change hydrological patterns and processes at the catchment scale, with impacts on habitat conditions for fish. The main goal of this study is to assess how shifts in fish habitat favourability under climate change scenarios are affected by hydrological stressors. The interplay between climate and hydrological stressors has important implications in river management under climate change because management actions to control hydrological parameters are more feasible than controlling climate. This study was carried out in the Tamega catchment of the Douro basin. A set of hydrological stressor variables were generated through a process-based modelling based on current climate data (2008-2014) and also considering a high-end future climate change scenario. The resulting parameters, along with climatic and site-descriptor variables were used as explanatory variables in empirical habitat models for nine fish species using boosted regression trees. Models were calibrated for the whole Douro basin using 254 fish sampling sites and predictions under future climate change scenarios were made for the Tamega catchment. Results show that models using climatic variables but not hydrological stressors produce more stringent predictions of future favourability, predicting more distribution contractions or stronger range shifts. The use of hydrological stressors strongly influences projections of habitat favourability shifts; the integration of these stressors in the models thinned shifts in range due to climate change. Hydrological stressors were retained in the models for most species and had a high importance, demonstrating that it is important to integrate hydrology in studies of impacts of climate change on freshwater fishes. This is a relevant result because it means that management actions to control hydrological parameters in rivers will have an impact on the effects of climate change and may potentially be helpful to mitigate its negative effects on fish populations and assemblages. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Forcing Growth Rates: Doubling Down on Our Faustian Bargain

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko

2013-01-01

Rahmstorf et al 's (2012) conclusion that observed climate change is comparable to projections, and in some cases exceeds projections, allows further inferences if we can quantify changing climate forcings and compare those with projections. The largest climate forcing is caused by well-mixed long-lived greenhouse gases. Here we illustrate trends of these gases and their climate forcings, and we discuss implications. We focus on quantities that are accurately measured, and we include comparison with fixed scenarios, which helps reduce common misimpressions about how climate forcings are changing. Annual fossil fuel CO2 emissions have shot up in the past decade at about 3/yr, double the rate of the prior three decades (figure 1). The growth rate falls above the range of the IPCC (2001) 'Marker' scenarios, although emissions are still within the entire range considered by the IPCC SRES (2000). The surge in emissions is due to increased coal use (blue curve in figure 1), which now accounts for more than 40 of fossil fuel CO2 emissions.

Typhoon Yolanda/Haiyan and climate justice.

PubMed

Yamada, Seiji; Galat, Absalon

2014-10-01

The extreme weather events that the world is experiencing are consistent with the effects of anthropogenic climate change. The western North Pacific is the area of the world with the most intense tropical cyclones. Increased sea surface temperatures directly contribute to the wind speed of storms. The 2013 Typhoon Yolanda/Haiyan was the strongest tropical cyclone in recorded history to make landfall-causing more than 6000 deaths in the Philippines, mostly from storm surge. This event represents a climate injustice. On one hand, disaster prevention and preparedness were inadequate for impoverished populations in the Philippines who lived in poorly constructed housing. While the international community assisted with the response, recovery was hampered by inadequate and inequitable investment. On the other hand, climate change has been driven by the carbon emissions of industrialized states. Those who call for climate justice argue for more robust measures to control carbon emissions responsible for climate change and worsening global health security. As global citizens and as health professionals, we examine the implications for all of us as moral actors.

Integrated regional changes in arctic climate feedbacks: Implications for the global climate system

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGuire, A.D.; Chapin, F. S.; Walsh, J.E.; Wirth, C.; ,

2006-01-01

The Arctic is a key part of the global climate system because the net positive energy input to the tropics must ultimately be resolved through substantial energy losses in high-latitude regions. The Arctic influences the global climate system through both positive and negative feedbacks that involve physical, ecological, and human systems of the Arctic. The balance of evidence suggests that positive feedbacks to global warming will likely dominate in the Arctic during the next 50 to 100 years. However, the negative feedbacks associated with changing the freshwater balance of the Arctic Ocean might abruptly launch the planet into another glacial period on longer timescales. In light of uncertainties and the vulnerabilities of the climate system to responses in the Arctic, it is important that we improve our understanding of how integrated regional changes in the Arctic will likely influence the evolution of the global climate system. Copyright ?? 2006 by Annual Reviews. All rights reserved.

A Generalized Stability Analysis of the AMOC in Earth System Models: Implication for Decadal Variability and Abrupt Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fedorov, Alexey V.

2015-01-14

The central goal of this research project was to understand the mechanisms of decadal and multi-decadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as related to climate variability and abrupt climate change within a hierarchy of climate models ranging from realistic ocean models to comprehensive Earth system models. Generalized Stability Analysis, a method that quantifies the transient and asymptotic growth of perturbations in the system, is one of the main approaches used throughout this project. The topics we have explored range from physical mechanisms that control AMOC variability to the factors that determine AMOC predictability in the Earth systemmore » models, to the stability and variability of the AMOC in past climates.« less

How pre-service elementary teachers express emotions about climate change and related disciplinary ideas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hufnagel, Elizabeth J.

As we face the challenges of serious environmental issues, science education has made a commitment to improving environmental literacy, in particular climate literacy (NRC, 2012; 2013). With an increased focus on climate change education in the United States, more research on the teaching and learning of this problem in science classrooms is occurring (e.g. Arslan, Cigdemoglu, & Moseley, 2012; Svihla & Linn, 2012). However, even though people experience a range of emotions about global problems like climate change (Hicks & Holden, 2007; Ojala, 2012; Rickinson, 2001), little attention is given to their emotions about the problem in science classrooms. Because emotions are evaluative (Boler, 1999; Keltner & Gross, 1999), they provided a lens for understanding how students engage personally with climate change. In this study, I drew from sociolinguistics, social psychology, and the sociology of emotions to examine a) the social interactions that allowed for emotional expressions to be constructed and b) the ways in which pre-service elementary teachers constructed emotional expressions about climate change in a science course. Three overall findings emerged: 1) emotions provided a means of understanding how students' conceptualized climate to be relevant to their lives, 2) emotional expressions and the aboutness of these expressions indicated that the students conceptualized climate change as distanced, both temporally and spatially, and 3) although most emotional constructions were distanced, there were multiple instances of emotional expressions in which students took climate change personally. Following a discussion of the findings, implications, limitations, and directions for future research are also described.

Using physiology to understand climate-driven changes in disease and their implications for conservation

PubMed Central

Rohr, Jason R.; Raffel, Thomas R.; Blaustein, Andrew R.; Johnson, Pieter T. J.; Paull, Sara H.; Young, Suzanne

2013-01-01

Controversy persists regarding the contributions of climate change to biodiversity losses, through its effects on the spread and emergence of infectious diseases. One of the reasons for this controversy is that there are few mechanistic studies that explore the links among climate change, infectious disease, and declines of host populations. Given that host–parasite interactions are generally mediated by physiological responses, we submit that physiological models could facilitate the prediction of how host–parasite interactions will respond to climate change, and might offer theoretical and terminological cohesion that has been lacking in the climate change–disease literature. We stress that much of the work on how climate influences host–parasite interactions has emphasized changes in climatic means, despite a hallmark of climate change being changes in climatic variability and extremes. Owing to this gap, we highlight how temporal variability in weather, coupled with non-linearities in responses to mean climate, can be used to predict the effects of climate on host–parasite interactions. We also discuss the climate variability hypothesis for disease-related declines, which posits that increased unpredictable temperature variability might provide a temporary advantage to pathogens because they are smaller and have faster metabolisms than their hosts, allowing more rapid acclimatization following a temperature shift. In support of these hypotheses, we provide case studies on the role of climatic variability in host population declines associated with the emergence of the infectious diseases chytridiomycosis, withering syndrome, and malaria. Finally, we present a mathematical model that provides the scaffolding to integrate metabolic theory, physiological mechanisms, and large-scale spatiotemporal processes to predict how simultaneous changes in climatic means, variances, and extremes will affect host–parasite interactions. However, several outstanding questions remain to be answered before investigators can accurately predict how changes in climatic means and variances will affect infectious diseases and the conservation status of host populations. PMID:27293606

Evaluating Biodiversity Response toForecasted Land Use Change: A Case Study in the South Platte River Basin, Colorado

EPA Science Inventory

Effects of future land use change on watersheds have important management implications. Seamless, national-scale land-use-change scenarios for developed land were acquired from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (lCLUS) project and...

An Ill Wind? Climate Change, Migration, and Health

PubMed Central

Barnett, Jon

2012-01-01

Background: Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move. Objectives: In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response. Methods: This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change. Discussion: Climate-change–related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains. Conclusions: Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change. PMID:22266739

Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

2015-12-01

Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

Public Inaccuracy in Meta-perceptions of Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swim, J.; Fraser, J.

2012-12-01

Public perceptions of climate change and meta-perceptions of the public and climate scientist's perceptions of climate change were assessed to benchmark the National Network for Climate Change Interpretation's impacts. Meta-perceptions are important to examine because they can have implications for willingness to take action to address climate change. For instance, recent research suggests a tendency to misperceive that there is disagreement among climate scientists is predictive of lack of support for climate change policies. Underestimating public concern about climate change could also be problematic: it could lead individuals to withdraw from personal efforts to reduce impact and engage others in discussions about climate change. Presented results will demonstrate that respondents in a national survey underestimated the percent of the public who were very concerned, concerned or cautious about climate change and overestimated the extent others were disengaged, doubted, or non-believers. They underestimated the percent of the public who likely believed that humans caused climate change and overestimate the percent that believed climate change was not happening nor human induced. Finally, they underestimated the percent of the public that believed climate change threatened ocean health. The results also explore sources of misperceptions. First, correlates with TV viewing habits suggest that inaccuracy is a result of too little attention to network news, with one exception: Greater attention to FOX among doubters reduced accuracy. Second, adding to other evidence that basic cognitive heuristics (such as availability heuristic) influence perceptions of climate change, we show that that false consensus effects account for meta-perceptions of the public and climate scientists beliefs. The false consensus effect, in combination with underestimating concern among the public, results in those most concerned about climate change and those who believe it to be human caused to be more accurate in their meta-perceptions than their disbelieving counterparts. Yet, even this group underestimates the public's concern about climate change and the presence of the false consensus effect suggests that greater accuracy is not a result of greater knowledge about other's beliefs but rather a result of personal cognitive or motivational biases counteracting a general trend toward underestimating the general public's concern. We conclude that there is need to inform the public about wide-spread agreement that human caused climate change and its impacts on oceans is believed by the majority of the public and to increase the public's confidence in climate scientist agreement about the existence, causes, and impacts of climate change.; Perceptions and metaperceptions of concern about climate change

Calcification, Storm Damage and Population Resilience of Tabular Corals under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Madin, Joshua S.; Hughes, Terry P.; Connolly, Sean R.

2012-01-01

Two facets of climate change–increased tropical storm intensity and ocean acidification–are expected to detrimentally affect reef-building organisms by increasing their mortality rates and decreasing their calcification rates. Our current understanding of these effects is largely based on individual organisms’ short-term responses to experimental manipulations. However, predicting the ecologically-relevant effects of climate change requires understanding the long-term demographic implications of these organism-level responses. In this study, we investigate how storm intensity and calcification rate interact to affect population dynamics of the table coral Acropora hyacinthus, a dominant and geographically widespread ecosystem engineer on wave-exposed Indo-Pacific reefs. We develop a mechanistic framework based on the responses of individual-level demographic rates to changes in the physical and chemical environment, using a size-structured population model that enables us to rigorously incorporate uncertainty. We find that table coral populations are vulnerable to future collapse, placing in jeopardy many other reef organisms that are dependent upon them for shelter and food. Resistance to collapse is largely insensitive to predicted changes in storm intensity, but is highly dependent on the extent to which calcification influences both the mechanical properties of reef substrate and the colony-level trade-off between growth rate and skeletal strength. This study provides the first rigorous quantitative accounting of the demographic implications of the effects of ocean acidification and changes in storm intensity, and provides a template for further studies of climate-induced shifts in ecosystems, including coral reefs. PMID:23056379

Coastline degradation as an indicator of global change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nicholls, Robert J.; Woodroffe, Colin D.; Burkett, Virginia; Letcher, Trevor M.

2009-01-01

Finding a climate change signal on coasts is more problematic than often assumed. Coasts undergo natural dynamics at many scales, with erosion and recovery in response to climate variability such as El Niño, or extreme events such as storms and infrequent tsunamis. Additionally, humans have had enormous impacts on most coasts, overshadowing most changes that one can presently attribute directly to climate change. Each area of coast is experiencing its own pattern of relative sea-level change and climate change, making discrimination of the component of degradation that results from climate change problems. The best examples of a climate influence are related to temperature rise at low and high latitudes, as seen by the impacts on coral reefs and polar coasts, respectively. Observations through the twentieth century demonstrate the importance of understanding the impacts of sea-level rise and climate change in the context of multiple drivers of change; this will remain a challenge under a more rapidly changing climate. Nevertheless, there are emerging signs that climate change provides a global threat—sea ice is retreating, permafrost in coastal areas is widely melting. Reefs are bleaching more often, and the sea is rising—amplifying widespread trends of subsidence and threatening low-lying areas. To enhance the sustainability of coastal systems, management strategies will also need to address this challenge, focusing on the drivers that are dominant at each section of coast. Global warming through the twentieth century has caused a series of changes with important implications for coastal areas. These include rising temperatures, rising sea level, increasing CO2 concentrations with an associated reduction in seawater pH, and more intense precipitation on average.

Reframing climate change as a public health issue: an exploratory study of public reactions

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Climate change is taking a toll on human health, and some leaders in the public health community have urged their colleagues to give voice to its health implications. Previous research has shown that Americans are only dimly aware of the health implications of climate change, yet the literature on issue framing suggests that providing a novel frame - such as human health - may be potentially useful in enhancing public engagement. We conducted an exploratory study in the United States of people's reactions to a public health-framed short essay on climate change. Methods U.S. adult respondents (n = 70), stratified by six previously identified audience segments, read the essay and were asked to highlight in green or pink any portions of the essay they found "especially clear and helpful" or alternatively "especially confusing or unhelpful." Two dependent measures were created: a composite sentence-specific score based on reactions to all 18 sentences in the essay; and respondents' general reactions to the essay that were coded for valence (positive, neutral, or negative). We tested the hypothesis that five of the six audience segments would respond positively to the essay on both dependent measures. Results There was clear evidence that two of the five segments responded positively to the public health essay, and mixed evidence that two other responded positively. There was limited evidence that the fifth segment responded positively. Post-hoc analysis showed that five of the six segments responded more positively to information about the health benefits associated with mitigation-related policy actions than to information about the health risks of climate change. Conclusions Presentations about climate change that encourage people to consider its human health relevance appear likely to provide many Americans with a useful and engaging new frame of reference. Information about the potential health benefits of specific mitigation-related policy actions appears to be particularly compelling. We believe that the public health community has an important perspective to share about climate change, a perspective that makes the problem more personally relevant, significant, and understandable to members of the public. PMID:20515503

Reframing climate change as a public health issue: an exploratory study of public reactions.

PubMed

Maibach, Edward W; Nisbet, Matthew; Baldwin, Paula; Akerlof, Karen; Diao, Guoqing

2010-06-01

Climate change is taking a toll on human health, and some leaders in the public health community have urged their colleagues to give voice to its health implications. Previous research has shown that Americans are only dimly aware of the health implications of climate change, yet the literature on issue framing suggests that providing a novel frame--such as human health--may be potentially useful in enhancing public engagement. We conducted an exploratory study in the United States of people's reactions to a public health-framed short essay on climate change. U.S. adult respondents (n = 70), stratified by six previously identified audience segments, read the essay and were asked to highlight in green or pink any portions of the essay they found "especially clear and helpful" or alternatively "especially confusing or unhelpful." Two dependent measures were created: a composite sentence-specific score based on reactions to all 18 sentences in the essay; and respondents' general reactions to the essay that were coded for valence (positive, neutral, or negative). We tested the hypothesis that five of the six audience segments would respond positively to the essay on both dependent measures. There was clear evidence that two of the five segments responded positively to the public health essay, and mixed evidence that two other responded positively. There was limited evidence that the fifth segment responded positively. Post-hoc analysis showed that five of the six segments responded more positively to information about the health benefits associated with mitigation-related policy actions than to information about the health risks of climate change. Presentations about climate change that encourage people to consider its human health relevance appear likely to provide many Americans with a useful and engaging new frame of reference. Information about the potential health benefits of specific mitigation-related policy actions appears to be particularly compelling. We believe that the public health community has an important perspective to share about climate change, a perspective that makes the problem more personally relevant, significant, and understandable to members of the public.

Implications of climate change predictions for UK cropping and prospects for possible mitigation: a review of challenges and potential responses.

PubMed

Rial-Lovera, Karen; Davies, W Paul; Cannon, Nicola D

2017-01-01

The UK, like the rest of the world, is confronting the impacts of climate change. Further changes are expected and they will have a profound effect on agriculture. Future crop production will take place against increasing CO 2 levels and temperatures, decreasing water availability, and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. This review contributes to research on agricultural practices for climate change, but with a more regional perspective. The present study explores climate change impacts on UK agriculture, particularly food crop production, and how to mitigate and build resilience to climate change by adopting and/or changing soil management practices, including fertilisation and tillage systems, new crop adoption and variety choice. Some mitigation can be adopted in the shorter term, such as changes in crop type and reduction in fertiliser use, but in other cases the options will need greater investment and longer adaptation period. This is the case for new crop variety development and deployment, and possible changes to soil cultivations. Uncertainty of future weather conditions, particularly extreme weather, also affect decision-making for adoption of practices by farmers to ensure more stable and sustainable production. Even when there is real potential for climate change mitigation, it can sometimes be more difficult to accomplish with certainty on-farm. Better future climate projections and long-term investments will be required to create more resilient agricultural systems in the UK in the face of climate change challenges. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States

Treesearch

R. Barbero; J. T. Abatzoglou; Sim Larkin; C. A. Kolden; B. Stocks

2015-01-01

Very large fires (VLFs) have important implications for communities, ecosystems, air quality and fire suppression expenditures. VLFs over the contiguous US have been strongly linked with meteorological and climatological variability. Building on prior modelling of VLFs (>5000 ha), an ensemble of 17 global climate models were statistically downscaled over the US...

Contrasting environmental drivers of adult and juvenile growth in a marine fish: implications for the effects of climate change

PubMed Central

Ong, Joyce Jia Lin; Nicholas Rountrey, Adam; Jane Meeuwig, Jessica; John Newman, Stephen; Zinke, Jens; Gregory Meekan, Mark

2015-01-01

Many marine fishes have life history strategies that involve ontogenetic changes in the use of coastal habitats. Such ontogenetic shifts may place these species at particular risk from climate change, because the successive environments they inhabit can differ in the type, frequency and severity of changes related to global warming. We used a dendrochronology approach to examine the physical and biological drivers of growth of adult and juvenile mangrove jack (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) from tropical north-western Australia. Juveniles of this species inhabit estuarine environments and adults reside on coastal reefs. The Niño-4 index, a measure of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had the highest correlation with adult growth chronologies, with La Niña years (characterised by warmer temperatures and lower salinities) having positive impacts on growth. Atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena operating at ocean-basin scales seem to be important correlates of the processes driving growth in local coastal habitats. Conversely, terrestrial factors influencing precipitation and river runoff were positively correlated with the growth of juveniles in estuaries. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on these two life history stages are likely to be different, with implications for resilience and management of populations. PMID:26052896

Contrasting environmental drivers of adult and juvenile growth in a marine fish: implications for the effects of climate change.

PubMed

Ong, Joyce Jia Lin; Rountrey, Adam Nicholas; Meeuwig, Jessica Jane; Newman, Stephen John; Zinke, Jens; Meekan, Mark Gregory

2015-06-08

Many marine fishes have life history strategies that involve ontogenetic changes in the use of coastal habitats. Such ontogenetic shifts may place these species at particular risk from climate change, because the successive environments they inhabit can differ in the type, frequency and severity of changes related to global warming. We used a dendrochronology approach to examine the physical and biological drivers of growth of adult and juvenile mangrove jack (Lutjanus argentimaculatus) from tropical north-western Australia. Juveniles of this species inhabit estuarine environments and adults reside on coastal reefs. The Niño-4 index, a measure of the status of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had the highest correlation with adult growth chronologies, with La Niña years (characterised by warmer temperatures and lower salinities) having positive impacts on growth. Atmospheric and oceanographic phenomena operating at ocean-basin scales seem to be important correlates of the processes driving growth in local coastal habitats. Conversely, terrestrial factors influencing precipitation and river runoff were positively correlated with the growth of juveniles in estuaries. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on these two life history stages are likely to be different, with implications for resilience and management of populations.

Predictability in community dynamics.

PubMed

Blonder, Benjamin; Moulton, Derek E; Blois, Jessica; Enquist, Brian J; Graae, Bente J; Macias-Fauria, Marc; McGill, Brian; Nogué, Sandra; Ordonez, Alejandro; Sandel, Brody; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2017-03-01

The coupling between community composition and climate change spans a gradient from no lags to strong lags. The no-lag hypothesis is the foundation of many ecophysiological models, correlative species distribution modelling and climate reconstruction approaches. Simple lag hypotheses have become prominent in disequilibrium ecology, proposing that communities track climate change following a fixed function or with a time delay. However, more complex dynamics are possible and may lead to memory effects and alternate unstable states. We develop graphical and analytic methods for assessing these scenarios and show that these dynamics can appear in even simple models. The overall implications are that (1) complex community dynamics may be common and (2) detailed knowledge of past climate change and community states will often be necessary yet sometimes insufficient to make predictions of a community's future state. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

2006-12-01

The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Transplantation of subalpine wood-pasture turfs along a natural climatic gradient reveals lower resistance of unwooded pastures to climate change compared to wooded ones.

PubMed

Gavazov, Konstantin; Spiegelberger, Thomas; Buttler, Alexandre

2014-04-01

Climate change could impact strongly on cold-adapted mountain ecosystems, but little is known about its interaction with traditional land-use practices. We used an altitudinal gradient to simulate a year-round warmer and drier climate for semi-natural subalpine grasslands across a landscape of contrasting land-use management. Turf mesocosms from three pasture-woodland land-use types-unwooded pasture, sparsely wooded pasture, and densely wooded pasture-spanning a gradient from high to low management intensity were transplanted downslope to test their resistance to two intensities of climate change. We found strong overall effects of intensive (+4 K) experimental climate change (i.e., warming and reduced precipitation) on plant community structure and function, while moderate (+2 K) climate change did not substantially affect the studied land-use types, thus indicating an ecosystem response threshold to moderate climate perturbation. The individual land-use types were affected differently under the +4 K scenario, with a 60% decrease in aboveground biomass (AGB) in unwooded pasture turfs, a 40% decrease in sparsely wooded pasture turfs, and none in densely wooded ones. Similarly, unwooded pasture turfs experienced a 30% loss of species, advanced (by 30 days) phenological development, and a mid-season senescence due to drought stress, while no such effects were recorded for the other land-use types. The observed contrasting effects of climate change across the pasture-woodland landscape have important implications for future decades. The reduced impact of climate change on wooded pastures as compared to unwooded ones should promote the sustainable land use of wooded pastures by maintaining low management intensity and a sparse forest canopy, which buffer the immediate impacts of climate change on herbaceous vegetation.

Increasing temperature exacerbated Classic Maya conflict over the long term

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carleton, W. Christopher; Campbell, David; Collard, Mark

2017-05-01

The impact of climate change on conflict is an important but controversial topic. One issue that needs to be resolved is whether or not climate change exacerbates conflict over the long term. With this in mind, we investigated the relationship between climate change and conflict among Classic Maya polities over a period of several hundred years (363-888 CE). We compiled a list of conflicts recorded on dated monuments, and then located published temperature and rainfall records for the region. Subsequently, we used a recently developed time-series method to investigate the impact of the climatic variables on the frequency of conflict while controlling for trends in monument number. We found that there was a substantial increase in conflict in the approximately 500 years covered by the dataset. This increase could not be explained by change in the amount of rainfall. In contrast, the increase was strongly associated with an increase in summer temperature. These finding have implications not only for Classic Maya history but also for the debate about the likely effects of contemporary climate change.

Climatology of salt transitions and implications for stone weathering.

PubMed

Grossi, C M; Brimblecombe, P; Menéndez, B; Benavente, D; Harris, I; Déqué, M

2011-06-01

This work introduces the notion of salt climatology. It shows how climate affects salt thermodynamic and the potential to relate long-term salt damage to climate types. It mainly focuses on specific sites in Western Europe, which include some cities in France and Peninsular Spain. Salt damage was parameterised using the number of dissolution-crystallisation events for unhydrated (sodium chloride) and hydrated (sodium sulphate) systems. These phase transitions have been calculated using daily temperature and relative humidity from observation meteorological data and Climate Change models' output (HadCM3 and ARPEGE). Comparing the number of transitions with meteorological seasonal data allowed us to develop techniques to estimate the frequency of salt transitions based on the local climatology. Results show that it is possible to associate the Köppen-Geiger climate types with potential salt weathering. Temperate fully humid climates seem to offer the highest potential for salt damage and possible higher number of transitions in summer. Climates with dry summers tend to show a lesser frequency of transitions in summer. The analysis of temperature, precipitation and relative output from Climate Change models suggests changes in the Köppen-Geiger climate types and changes in the patterns of salt damage. For instance, West Europe areas with a fully humid climate may change to a more Mediterranean like or dry climates, and consequently the seasonality of different salt transitions. The accuracy and reliability of the projections might be improved by simultaneously running multiple climate models (ensembles). Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Forest cover change, climate variability, and hydrological responses

Treesearch

Xiaohua Wei; Rita Winkler; Ge Sun

2017-01-01

Understanding ecohydrological response to environmental change is critical for protecting watershed functions, sustaining clean water supply, and other ecosystem services, safeguarding public safety, floods mitigation, and drought response. Understanding ecohyhdrological processes and their implications to forest and water management has become increasingly important...

The effects of tropospheric ozone on net primary productivity and implications for climate change.

PubMed

Ainsworth, Elizabeth A; Yendrek, Craig R; Sitch, Stephen; Collins, William J; Emberson, Lisa D

2012-01-01

Tropospheric ozone (O(3)) is a global air pollutant that causes billions of dollars in lost plant productivity annually. It is an important anthropogenic greenhouse gas, and as a secondary air pollutant, it is present at high concentrations in rural areas far from industrial sources. It also reduces plant productivity by entering leaves through the stomata, generating other reactive oxygen species and causing oxidative stress, which in turn decreases photosynthesis, plant growth, and biomass accumulation. The deposition of O(3) into vegetation through stomata is an important sink for tropospheric O(3), but this sink is modified by other aspects of environmental change, including rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations, rising temperature, altered precipitation, and nitrogen availability. We review the atmospheric chemistry governing tropospheric O(3) mass balance, the effects of O(3) on stomatal conductance and net primary productivity, and implications for agriculture, carbon sequestration, and climate change.

Implications of climate change for wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Skagen, Susan K.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

2016-01-01

The habitats and food resources required to support breeding and migrant birds dependent on North American prairie wetlands are threatened by impending climate change. The North American Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) hosts nearly 120 species of wetland-dependent birds representing 21 families. Strategic management requires knowledge of avian habitat requirements and assessment of species most vulnerable to future threats. We applied bioclimatic species distribution models (SDMs) to project range changes of 29 wetland-dependent bird species using ensemble modeling techniques, a large number of General Circulation Models (GCMs), and hydrological climate covariates. For the U.S. PPR, mean projected range change, expressed as a proportion of currently occupied range, was −0.31 (± 0.22 SD; range − 0.75 to 0.16), and all but two species were projected to lose habitat. Species associated with deeper water were expected to experience smaller negative impacts of climate change. The magnitude of climate change impacts was somewhat lower in this study than earlier efforts most likely due to use of different focal species, varying methodologies, different modeling decisions, or alternative GCMs. Quantification of the projected species-specific impacts of climate change using species distribution modeling offers valuable information for vulnerability assessments within the conservation planning process.

Advancing climate justice and the right to health through procedural rights.

PubMed

Hall, Margaux J

2014-06-14

Scholars have increasingly recognized the ways in which climate change threatens the human rights of people around the world, with a disproportionate burden on the rights of already vulnerable persons. At particular risk to these populations is the right to health, as well as to interconnected human rights. Yet, scholars have generally not provided a thorough assessment of precisely how human rights law can catalyze a response to climate change to effectively avert health harms. This article suggests that human rights law is better suited to guide procedural responses to climate change and its health harms than it is to guide substantive decision-making. This article describes the ways in which climate change implicates the right to health and then analyzes human rights law's response. While acknowledging the intrinsic value of human rights in prompting climate change action, the article focuses its analysis on human rights' instrumental value in this arena. Copyright © 2014 Hall. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

Personal efficacy, the information environment, and attitudes toward global warming and climate change in the United States.

PubMed

Kellstedt, Paul M; Zahran, Sammy; Vedlitz, Arnold

2008-02-01

Despite the growing scientific consensus about the risks of global warming and climate change, the mass media frequently portray the subject as one of great scientific controversy and debate. And yet previous studies of the mass public's subjective assessments of the risks of global warming and climate change have not sufficiently examined public informedness, public confidence in climate scientists, and the role of personal efficacy in affecting global warming outcomes. By examining the results of a survey on an original and representative sample of Americans, we find that these three forces-informedness, confidence in scientists, and personal efficacy-are related in interesting and unexpected ways, and exert significant influence on risk assessments of global warming and climate change. In particular, more informed respondents both feel less personally responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. We also find that confidence in scientists has unexpected effects: respondents with high confidence in scientists feel less responsible for global warming, and also show less concern for global warming. These results have substantial implications for the interaction between scientists and the public in general, and for the public discussion of global warming and climate change in particular.

Predicting shifting sustainability trade-offs in marine finfish aquaculture under climate change.

PubMed

Sarà, Gianluca; Gouhier, Tarik C; Brigolin, Daniele; Porporato, Erika M D; Mangano, Maria Cristina; Mirto, Simone; Mazzola, Antonio; Pastres, Roberto

2018-05-03

Defining sustainability goals is a crucial but difficult task because it often involves the quantification of multiple interrelated and sometimes conflicting components. This complexity may be exacerbated by climate change, which will increase environmental vulnerability in aquaculture and potentially compromise the ability to meet the needs of a growing human population. Here, we developed an approach to inform sustainable aquaculture by quantifying spatio-temporal shifts in critical trade-offs between environmental costs and benefits using the time to reach the commercial size as a possible proxy of economic implications of aquaculture under climate change. Our results indicate that optimizing aquaculture practices by minimizing impact (this study considers as impact a benthic carbon deposition ≥ 1 g C m -2  day -1 ) will become increasingly difficult under climate change. Moreover, an increasing temperature will produce a poleward shift in sustainability trade-offs. These findings suggest that future sustainable management strategies and plans will need to account for the effects of climate change across scales. Overall, our results highlight the importance of integrating environmental factors in order to sustainably manage critical natural resources under shifting climatic conditions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

PubMed Central

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied. PMID:25285917

Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

PubMed

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

Climate and Management Controls on Forest Growth and Forest Carbon Balance in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kelsey, Katharine Cashman

Climate change is resulting in a number of rapid changes in forests worldwide. Forests comprise a critical component of the global carbon cycle, and therefore climate-induced changes in forest carbon balance have the potential to create a feedback within the global carbon cycle and affect future trajectories of climate change. In order to further understanding of climate-driven changes in forest carbon balance, I (1) develop a method to improve spatial estimates forest carbon stocks, (2) investigate the effect of climate change and forest management actions on forest recovery and carbon balance following disturbance, and (3) explore the relationship between climate and forest growth, and identify climate-driven trends in forest growth through time, within San Juan National Forest in southwest Colorado, USA. I find that forest carbon estimates based on texture analysis from LandsatTM imagery improve regional forest carbon maps, and this method is particularly useful for estimating carbon stocks in forested regions affected by disturbance. Forest recovery from disturbance is also a critical component of future forest carbon stocks, and my results indicate that both climate and forest management actions have important implications for forest recovery and carbon dynamics following disturbance. Specifically, forest treatments that use woody biomass removed from the forest for electricity production can reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere, but climate driven changes in fire severity and forest recovery can have the opposite effect on forest carbon stocks. In addition to the effects of disturbance and recovery on forest condition, I also find that climate change is decreasing rates of forest growth in some species, likely in response to warming summer temperatures. These growth declines could result in changes of vegetation composition, or in extreme cases, a shift in vegetation type that would alter forest carbon storage. This work provides insight into both current and future changes in forest carbon balance as a consequence of climate change and forest management in the western US.

Evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance: biogeographic patterns and expectations under climate change.

PubMed

Diamond, Sarah E

2017-02-01

How will organisms respond to climate change? The rapid changes in global climate are expected to impose strong directional selection on fitness-related traits. A major open question then is the potential for adaptive evolutionary change under these shifting climates. At the most basic level, evolutionary change requires the presence of heritable variation and natural selection. Because organismal tolerances of high temperature place an upper bound on responding to temperature change, there has been a surge of research effort on the evolutionary potential of upper thermal tolerance traits. Here, I review the available evidence on heritable variation in upper thermal tolerance traits, adopting a biogeographic perspective to understand how heritability of tolerance varies across space. Specifically, I use meta-analytical models to explore the relationship between upper thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature. I also explore how variation in the methods used to obtain these thermal tolerance heritabilities influences the estimation of heritable variation in tolerance. I conclude by discussing the implications of a positive relationship between thermal tolerance heritability and environmental variability in temperature and how this might influence responses to future changes in climate. © 2016 New York Academy of Sciences.

Climate change is projected to have severe impacts on the frequency and intensity of peak electricity demand across the United States.

PubMed

Auffhammer, Maximilian; Baylis, Patrick; Hausman, Catherine H

2017-02-21

It has been suggested that climate change impacts on the electric sector will account for the majority of global economic damages by the end of the current century and beyond [Rose S, et al. (2014) Understanding the Social Cost of Carbon: A Technical Assessment ]. The empirical literature has shown significant increases in climate-driven impacts on overall consumption, yet has not focused on the cost implications of the increased intensity and frequency of extreme events driving peak demand, which is the highest load observed in a period. We use comprehensive, high-frequency data at the level of load balancing authorities to parameterize the relationship between average or peak electricity demand and temperature for a major economy. Using statistical models, we analyze multiyear data from 166 load balancing authorities in the United States. We couple the estimated temperature response functions for total daily consumption and daily peak load with 18 downscaled global climate models (GCMs) to simulate climate change-driven impacts on both outcomes. We show moderate and heterogeneous changes in consumption, with an average increase of 2.8% by end of century. The results of our peak load simulations, however, suggest significant increases in the intensity and frequency of peak events throughout the United States, assuming today's technology and electricity market fundamentals. As the electricity grid is built to endure maximum load, our findings have significant implications for the construction of costly peak generating capacity, suggesting additional peak capacity costs of up to 180 billion dollars by the end of the century under business-as-usual.

Transport of Aerosols: Regional and Global Implications for Climate, Weather, and Air Quality

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Diehl, Thomas; Yu, Hongbin; Bian, Huisheng; Remer, Lorraine; Kahn, Ralph

2008-01-01

Long-range transport of atmospheric aerosols can have a significant impact on global climate, regional weather, and local air quality. In this study, we use a global model GOCART together with satellite data and ground-based measurements to assess the emission and transport of pollution, dust, biomass burning, and volcanic aerosols and their implications. In particular, we will show the impact of emissions and long-range transport of aerosols from major pollution and dust source regions to (1) the surface air quality, (2) the atmospheric heating rates, and (3) surface radiation change near the source and downwind regions.

The global land rush and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Kyle Frankel; Rulli, Maria Cristina; D'Odorico, Paolo

2015-08-01

Climate change poses a serious global challenge in the face of rapidly increasing human demand for energy and food. A recent phenomenon in which climate change may play an important role is the acquisition of large tracts of land in the developing world by governments and corporations. In the target countries, where land is relatively inexpensive, the potential to increase crop yields is generally high and property rights are often poorly defined. By acquiring land, investors can realize large profits and countries can substantially alter the land and water resources under their control, thereby changing their outlook for meeting future demand. While the drivers, actors, and impacts involved with land deals have received substantial attention in the literature, we propose that climate change plays an important yet underappreciated role, both through its direct effects on agricultural production and through its influence on mitigative or adaptive policy decisions. Drawing from various literature sources as well as a new global database on reported land deals, we trace the evolution of the global land rush and highlight prominent examples in which the role of climate change is evident. We find that climate change—both historical and anticipated—interacts substantially with drivers of land acquisitions, having important implications for the resilience of communities in targeted areas. As a result of this synthesis, we ultimately contend that considerations of climate change should be integrated into future policy decisions relating to the large-scale land acquisitions.

Understanding the systemic nature of cities to improve health and climate change mitigation.

PubMed

Chapman, Ralph; Howden-Chapman, Philippa; Capon, Anthony

2016-09-01

Understanding cities comprehensively as systems is a costly challenge and is typically not feasible for policy makers. Nevertheless, focusing on some key systemic characteristics of cities can give useful insights for policy to advance health and well-being outcomes. Moreover, if we take a coevolutionary systems view of cities, some conventional assumptions about the nature of urban development (e.g. the growth in private vehicle use with income) may not stand up. We illustrate this by examining the coevolution of urban transport and land use systems, and institutional change, giving examples of policy implications. At a high level, our concern derives from the need to better understand the dynamics of urban change, and its implications for health and well-being. At a practical level, we see opportunities to use stylised findings about urban systems to underpin policy experiments. While it is now not uncommon to view cities as systems, policy makers appear to have made little use so far of a systems approach to inform choice of policies with consequences for health and well-being. System insights can be applied to intelligently anticipate change - for example, as cities are subjected to increasing natural system reactions to climate change, they must find ways to mitigate and adapt to it. Secondly, systems insights around policy cobenefits are vital for better informing horizontal policy integration. Lastly, an implication of system complexity is that rather than seeking detailed, 'full' knowledge about urban issues and policies, cities would be well advised to engage in policy experimentation to address increasingly urgent health and climate change issues. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global climate change and vector-borne diseases

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ginsberg, H.S.

2002-01-01

Global warming will have different effects on different diseases because of the complex and idiosynchratic interactions between vectors, hosts, and pathogens that influence transmission dynamics of each pathogen. Human activities, including urbanization, rapid global travel, and vector management, have profound effects on disease transmission that can operate on more rapid time scales than does global climate change. The general concern about global warming encouraging the spread of tropical diseases is legitimate, but the effects vary among diseases, and the ecological implications are difficult to predict.

Climate change, deforestation, and the fate of the Amazon.

PubMed

Malhi, Yadvinder; Roberts, J Timmons; Betts, Richard A; Killeen, Timothy J; Li, Wenhong; Nobre, Carlos A

2008-01-11

The forest biome of Amazonia is one of Earth's greatest biological treasures and a major component of the Earth system. This century, it faces the dual threats of deforestation and stress from climate change. Here, we summarize some of the latest findings and thinking on these threats, explore the consequences for the forest ecosystem and its human residents, and outline options for the future of Amazonia. We also discuss the implications of new proposals to finance preservation of Amazonian forests.

Prototype development of user specific climate services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacob, Daniela

2017-04-01

Systematic consultations in the last years with representatives from sectors particularly affected by climate change have helped the Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS) to identify the most pressing needs of stakeholders from public and private sectors. Besides the development of innovative climate service products and methods, areas are also identified, for which intensive research activities have to be initiated. An example is the demand of decision makers for high-resolution climate change information needed at regional to local levels for their activities towards climate change adaptation. For questions concerning adaptation to climate change, no standard solutions can be provided. Different from mitigation measures, adaptation measures must be framed in accordance with the specific circumstances prevailing in the local situation. Here, individual solutions, which satisfy the individual requirements and needs, are necessary. They have to be developed in close co-operation with the customers and users. For example, the implications of climate change on strategic and operative decisions, e.g. in enterprises and urban planning, are becoming increasingly important. Therefore, high-quality consultancy for businesses and public administration is needed, in order to support decision makers in identifying associated risks and opportunities. For the development of prototype products, GERICS has framed a general methodological approach, including the idea generation, the iterative development, and the prototype testing in co-development with the user. High process transparency and high product quality are prerequisite for the success of a product. The co-development process ensures the best possible communication of user tailored climate change information for different target groups.

Climate and sex ratio variation in a viviparous lizard.

PubMed

Cunningham, George D; While, Geoffrey M; Wapstra, Erik

2017-05-01

The extent to which key biological processes, such as sex determination, respond to environmental fluctuations is fundamental for assessing species' susceptibility to ongoing climate change. Few studies, however, address how climate affects offspring sex in the wild. We monitored two climatically distinct populations of the viviparous skink Niveoscincus ocellatus for 16 years, recording environmental temperatures, offspring sex and date of birth. We found strong population-specific effects of temperature on offspring sex, with female offspring more common in warm years at the lowland site but no effect at the highland site. In contrast, date of birth advanced similarly in response to temperature at both sites. These results suggest strong population-specific effects of temperature on offspring sex that are independent of climatic effects on other physiological processes. These results have significant implications for our understanding of the ecological and evolutionary consequences of variation in sex ratios under climate change. © 2017 The Author(s).

Climate, icing, and wild arctic reindeer: past relationships and future prospects.

PubMed

Hansen, Brage Bremset; Aanes, Ronny; Herfindal, Ivar; Kohler, Jack; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-10-01

Across the Arctic, heavy rain-on-snow (ROS) is an "extreme" climatic event that is expected to become increasingly frequent with global warming. This has potentially large ecosystem implications through changes in snowpack properties and ground-icing, which can block the access to herbivores' winter food and thereby suppress their population growth rates. However, the supporting empirical evidence for this is still limited. We monitored late winter snowpack properties to examine the causes and consequences of ground-icing in a Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) metapopulation. In this high-arctic area, heavy ROS occurred annually, and ground-ice covered from 25% to 96% of low-altitude habitat in the sampling period (2000-2010). The extent of ground-icing increased with the annual number of days with heavy ROS (> or = 10 mm) and had a strong negative effect on reindeer population growth rates. Our results have important implications as a downscaled climate projection (2021-2050) suggests a substantial future increase in ROS and icing. The present study is the first to demonstrate empirically that warmer and wetter winter climate influences large herbivore population dynamics by generating ice-locked pastures. This may serve as an early warning of the importance of changes in winter climate and extreme weather events in arctic ecosystems.

Ecological opportunity and the evolution of habitat preferences in an arid-zone bird: implications for speciation in a climate-modified landscape

PubMed Central

Norman, Janette A.; Christidis, Les

2016-01-01

Bioclimatic models are widely used to investigate the impacts of climate change on species distributions. Range shifts are expected to occur as species track their current climate niche yet the potential for exploitation of new ecological opportunities that may arise as ecosystems and communities remodel is rarely considered. Here we show that grasswrens of the Amytornis textilis-modestus complex responded to new ecological opportunities in Australia’s arid biome through shifts in habitat preference following the development of chenopod shrublands during the late Plio-Pleistocene. We find evidence of spatially explicit responses to climatically driven landscape changes including changes in niche width and patterns of population growth. Conservation of structural and functional aspects of the ancestral niche appear to have facilitated recent habitat shifts, while demographic responses to late Pleistocene climate change provide evidence for the greater resilience of populations inhabiting the recently evolved chenopod shrubland communities. Similar responses could occur under future climate change in species exposed to novel ecological conditions, or those already occupying spatially heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models that consider structural and functional aspects of the niche along with regional hydro-dynamics may be better predictors of future climate responses in Australia’s arid biome than bioclimatic models alone. PMID:26787111

Connecting Climate Science to Policy: from Global Food Production to the US Supreme Court

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battisti, D. S.

2016-12-01

There are myriad ways climate science has been used to inform on global food security, and to affect law and policy. In this talk, I will summarize examples that include the application of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation science to improve food security in Indonesia and provide water forecasts for agriculture in northwest Mexico, as well as the application of climate change science to project changes in global grain production. In the latter case, reliable information on the impact of increasing greenhouse gases on growing season temperature is applied to assess the impact of climate change on average crop yields, on the volatility in crop yields, and on the loss of yield due to increasing pest pressure - all of which have acute implications for agricultural policy. In the US, climate change science was of paramount importance for the Supreme Court decision in the case "Massachusetts vs. EPA," which to this day greatly shapes US policy related to climate change - most notably in setting emission standards for vehicles. My colleagues and I have learned several lessons from our experiences in these applications of climate science that I will share, including some thoughts on the nature of interdisciplinary teams for producing reliable and effective products, and the on the professional pros and cons of pursuing applied work.

Climate change in the Brazilian northeast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, Regina R.; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Hoelzemann, Judith J.

2012-10-01

Climate Change, Impacts and Vulnerabilities in Brazil: Preparing the Brazilian Northeast for the Future; Natal, Brazil, 27 May to 01 June 2012 The variability of the semiarid climate of the Brazilian northeast has enormous environmental and social implications. Because most of the population in this area depends on subsistence agriculture, periods of severe drought in the past have caused extreme poverty and subsequent migration to urban centers. From the ecological point of view, frequent and prolonged droughts can lead to the desertification of large areas. Understanding the causes of rainfall variability, in particular periods of severe drought, is crucial for accurate forecasting, mitigation, and adaptation in this important region of Brazil.

Schools of the Pacific rainfall climate experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Postawko, S. E.; Morrissey, M. L.; Taylor, G. J.; Mouginis-Mark, P.

1993-01-01

The SPaRCE program is a cooperative rainfall climate field project involving high school and college level students and teachers from various Pacific island and atoll nations. The goals of the SPaRCE program are: (1) to foster interest and increase understanding among Pacific-area students and teachers of climate and climate change; (2) to educate the students and teachers as to the importance of rainfall in the Pacific area to climate studies; (3) to provide the students and teachers an opportunity of making a major contribution to the global climate research effort by collecting and analyzing Pacific rainfall data; and (4) to incorporate collected rainfall observations into a comprehensive Pacific daily rainfall data base to be used for climate research purposes. Schools participating in SPaRCE have received standard raingauges with which to measure rainfall at their sites. Students learned to site and use their raingauges by viewing a video produced at the University of Oklahoma. Four more videos will be produced which will include information on Earth's atmosphere, global climate and climate change, regional climate and implications of climate change, and how to analyze and use the rainfall data they are collecting. The videos are accompanied by workbooks which summarize the main points of each video, and contain concrete learning activities to help the student better understand climate and climate change. Following each video, interactive sessions are held with the students using the PEACESAT (Pan-Pacific Education And Communication Experiments by Satellite) satellite radio communication system.

Changes in rainfed and irrigated crop yield response to climate in the western US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Troy, T. J.

2018-06-01

As the global population increases and the climate changes, ensuring a secure food supply is increasingly important. One strategy is irrigation, which allows for crops to be grown outside their optimal climate growing regions and which buffers against climate variability. Although irrigation is a positive climate adaptation mechanism for agriculture, it has a potentially negative effect on water resources as it can lead to groundwater depletion and diminished surface water supplies. This study quantifies how crop yields are affected by climate variability and extremes and the impact of irrigation on crop yield increases under various growing-season climate conditions. To do this, we use historical climate data and county-level rainfed and irrigated crop yields for maize, soybean, winter and spring wheat over the US to analyze the relationship between climate, crop yields, and irrigation. We find that there are optimal climates, specific to each crop, where irrigation provides a benefit and other conditions where irrigation proves to have marginal, if any, benefits. Furthermore, the relationship between crop yields and climate has changed over the last decades, with a changing sensitivity in the relationship of soybean and winter wheat yields to certain climate variables, like crop reference evapotranspiration. These two conclusions have important implications for agricultural and water resource system planning, as it implies there are more optimal climate conditions where irrigation is particularly productive and regions where irrigation should be reconsidered as there is not a significant agricultural benefit and the water could be used more productively.

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions.

PubMed

Law, Beverly E

2014-12-01

Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species-level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait-based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio-temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change. © 2014 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Truth and opinion in climate change discourse: the Gore-Hansen disagreement.

PubMed

Russill, Chris

2011-11-01

In this paper, I discuss the "inconvenient truth" strategy of Al Gore. I argue that Gore's notion of truth upholds a conception of science and policy that narrows our understanding of climate change discourse. In one notable exchange, Gore and NASA scientist, James Hansen, disagreed about whether scientific statements based on Hansen's computer simulations were truth or opinion. This exchange is featured in An Inconvenient Truth, yet the disagreement is edited from the film and presented simply as an instance of Hansen speaking "inconvenient truth". In this article, I compare the filmic representation of Hansen's testimony with the congressional record. I place their exchange in a broader historical perspective on climate change disputation in order to discuss the implications of Gore's perspective on truth.

Breeding crops for improved mineral nutrition under climate change conditions.

PubMed

Pilbeam, David J

2015-06-01

Improvements in understanding how climate change may influence chemical and physical processes in soils, how this may affect nutrient availability, and how plants may respond to changed availability of nutrients will influence crop breeding programmes. The effects of increased atmospheric CO2 and warmer temperatures, both individually and combined, on soil microbial activity, including mycorrhizas and N-fixing organisms, are evaluated, together with their implications for nutrient availability. Potential changes to plant growth, and the combined effects of soil and plant changes on nutrient uptake, are discussed. The organization of research on the efficient use of macro- and micronutrients by crops under climate change conditions is outlined, including analysis of QTLs for nutrient efficiency. Suggestions for how the information gained can be used in plant breeding programmes are given. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Experimental Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The response of land-falling tropical cyclone characteristics to projected climate change in northeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parker, Chelsea L.; Bruyère, Cindy L.; Mooney, Priscilla A.; Lynch, Amanda H.

2018-01-01

Land-falling tropical cyclones along the Queensland coastline can result in serious and widespread damage. However, the effects of climate change on cyclone characteristics such as intensity, trajectory, rainfall, and especially translation speed and size are not well-understood. This study explores the relative change in the characteristics of three case studies by comparing the simulated tropical cyclones under current climate conditions with simulations of the same systems under future climate conditions. Simulations are performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and environmental conditions for the future climate are obtained from the Community Earth System Model using a pseudo global warming technique. Results demonstrate a consistent response of increasing intensity through reduced central pressure (by up to 11 hPa), increased wind speeds (by 5-10% on average), and increased rainfall (by up to 27% for average hourly rainfall rates). The responses of other characteristics were variable and governed by either the location and trajectory of the current climate cyclone or the change in the steering flow. The cyclone that traveled furthest poleward encountered a larger climate perturbation, resulting in a larger proportional increase in size, rainfall rate, and wind speeds. The projected monthly average change in the 500 mb winds with climate change governed the alteration in the both the trajectory and translation speed for each case. The simulated changes have serious implications for damage to coastal settlements, infrastructure, and ecosystems through increased wind speeds, storm surge, rainfall, and potentially increased size of some systems.

Climate Twins - a tool to explore future climate impacts by assessing real world conditions: Exploration principles, underlying data, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loibl, Wolfgang; Peters-Anders, Jan; Züger, Johann

2010-05-01

To achieve public awareness and thorough understanding about expected climate changes and their future implications, ways have to be found to communicate model outputs to the public in a scientifically sound and easily understandable way. The newly developed Climate Twins tool tries to fulfil these requirements via an intuitively usable web application, which compares spatial patterns of current climate with future climate patterns, derived from regional climate model results. To get a picture of the implications of future climate in an area of interest, users may click on a certain location within an interactive map with underlying future climate information. A second map depicts the matching Climate Twin areas according to current climate conditions. In this way scientific output can be communicated to the public which allows for experiencing climate change through comparison with well-known real world conditions. To identify climatic coincidence seems to be a simple exercise, but the accuracy and applicability of the similarity identification depends very much on the selection of climate indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges. Too many indicators representing various climate characteristics and too narrow uncertainty ranges will judge little or no area as regions with similar climate, while too little indicators and too wide uncertainty ranges will address too large regions as those with similar climate which may not be correct. Similarity cannot be just explored by comparing mean values or by calculating correlation coefficients. As climate change triggers an alteration of various indicators, like maxima, minima, variation magnitude, frequency of extreme events etc., the identification of appropriate similarity conditions is a crucial question to be solved. For Climate Twins identification, it is necessary to find a right balance of indicators, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges, unless the results will be too vague conducting a useful Climate Twins regions search. The Climate Twins tool works actually comparing future climate conditions of a certain source area in the Greater Alpine Region with current climate conditions of entire Europe and the neighbouring southern as well south-eastern areas as target regions. A next version will integrate web crawling features for searching information about climate-related local adaptations observed today in the target region which may turn out as appropriate solution for the source region under future climate conditions. The contribution will present the current tool functionally and will discuss which indicator sets, similarity conditions and uncertainty ranges work best to deliver scientifically sound climate comparisons and distinct mapping results.

Climate change and the origins of agriculture: A global perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Byrne, R.

1995-12-31

Most students of the agricultural origins problem have rejected the thesis that climate change was in important causal variable. For example, it is often emphasized that agriculture began at different times in different areas, and that climate change could not therefore have been a significant factor. It is also suggested that climate change at the end of the last glacial could not have been important, because similar changes in climate occurred at the end of the penultimate glaciation without any cultural response. The primary purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that these objections are invalid, and are based onmore » a misunderstanding of: (1) the nature of late-Pleistocene/early-Holocene climate changes; and (2) the ecological context of early agriculture. Alternatively, it is proposed that the more or less synchronous development of agricultural in several widely separated areas of the globe is best seen as an indirect response to changes in climate during the Pleistocene/Holocene transitions. Three common denominators characterize the early centers of agricultural and collectively point to climate changes as a primary factor: (1) all are located in areas that today are characterized by strongly seasonal rainfall regimes; (2) the initial domestication of plants occurred independently at within a very short period of time during and immediately following the Pleistocene/Holocene transition; and (3) the early plant domesticates were either annuals or geophytes, autecologically adapted to seasonality of moisture supply. The implication is that increased seasonality during the Pleistocene/Holocene transition brought about changes in wild plant and animal populations that in turn led to domestication and agriculture.« less

Overcoming Barriers: Tailoring Climate Education for Latino and non-Latino Citizen to Impact Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estrada, M.; Boudrias, M. A.; Silva-Send, N. J.; Gershunov, A.; Anders, S.

2013-12-01

Culture has been shown to be an important determinant of Latino/Hispanic American environmental attitudes (Schultz, Unipan, & Gamba, 2000), which might help to explain the underrepresentation of Latinos in the U.S. 'environmental' movement. With shifting U.S. demographics, however, there is increased urgency to understand how Latinos integrate into the community that is concerned and literate about climate change. As part of the Climate Education Partners (CEP) work in San Diego, we investigated how to address this ethnic group disparity. In this paper, we describe a study of how climate change science knowledge relates to Latino and Non-Latino citizen (a) engagement in conservation behaviors and (b) more informed decision-making. Drawing upon previous work on the Tripartite Integration Model of Social Influence (TIMSI) (Estrada et al., 2011), we hypothesized that climate change knowledge that promotes efficacy (i.e., a sense that one can do something) would relate to greater engagement in conservation behaviors and more informed decision-making (both common of community members concerned about climate change). To test this model, 1001 San Diego residence participated in a telephone survey in which the attitudes towards climate change were assessed using '6 Americas' segmentation (Leiserowitz et al., 2011), in addition to climate change science knowledge, efficacy, values, and engagement in weekly and yearly climate change friendly behaviors (e.g., conservation, transportation, community engagement behaviors). Results showed that there were significant differences in the 6 America segmentation distributions, knowledge, efficacy and behavioral engagement with Latinos significantly more concerned than Non-Latinos, and reporting greater knowledge, efficacy and engagement in behaviors. However, data from both groups showed support for the TIMSI theoretical framework, such that efficacy mediated the relationship between climate change knowledge and behavior. Thus, for both groups, climate change science knowledge was more likely to result in behavioral engagement when the science knowledge was accompanied with the belief that one has the ability to engage in behaviors that mitigate or adapt to climate change (i.e., efficacy). Implications for how to improve both Latino and Non-Latino climate change education that results in informed decision-making and greater integration into the community concerned about climate change will be discussed.

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Overview of Sectors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wuebbles, D.

2009-12-01

The assessment of the Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States includes analyses of the potential climate change impacts by sector, including water resources, energy supply and use, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, human health and society. The resulting findings for the climate change impacts on these sectors are discussed in this presentation, with the effects on water resources discussed separately. Major findings include: Widespread climate-related impacts are occurring now and are expected to increase. Climate changes are already affecting water, energy, transportation, agriculture, ecosystems, and health. These impacts are different from region to region and will grow under projected climate change. Crop and livestock production will be increasingly challenged. Agriculture is considered one of the sectors most adaptable to changes in climate. However, increased heat, pests, water stress, diseases, and weather extremes will pose adaptation challenges for crop and livestock production. Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge. Sea-level rise and storm surge place many U.S. coastal areas at increasing risk. Energy and transportation infrastructure and other property in coastal areas are very likely to be adversely affected. Threats to human health will increase. Health impacts of climate change are related to heat stress, waterborne diseases, poor air quality, extreme weather events, and diseases transmitted by insects and rodents. Robust public health infrastructure can reduce the potential for negative impacts. Climate change will interact with many social and environmental stresses. Climate change will combine with pollution, population growth, overuse of resources, urbanization, and other social, economic, and environmental stresses to create larger impacts than from any of these factors alone. Thresholds will be crossed, leading to large changes in climate and ecosystems. There are a variety of thresholds in the climate system and ecosystems. These thresholds determine, for example, the presence of sea ice and permafrost, and the survival of species, from fish to insect pests, with implications for society. With further climate change, the crossing of additional thresholds is expected. These and many other findings will be discussed in the presentation.

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range-edge populations.

PubMed

Rehm, Evan M; Olivas, Paulo; Stroud, James; Feeley, Kenneth J

2015-10-01

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range-edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range-edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range-edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range-core populations. We also highlight how large-scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest-cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range-edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range-edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.

Advancing coupled human-earth system models: The integrated Earth System Model Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomson, A. M.; Edmonds, J. A.; Collins, W.; Thornton, P. E.; Hurtt, G. C.; Janetos, A. C.; Jones, A.; Mao, J.; Chini, L. P.; Calvin, K. V.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Shi, X.

2012-12-01

As human and biogeophysical models develop, opportunities for connections between them evolve and can be used to advance our understanding of human-earth systems interaction in the context of a changing climate. One such integration is taking place with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). A multi-disciplinary, multi-institution team has succeeded in integrating the GCAM integrated assessment model of human activity into CESM to dynamically represent the feedbacks between changing climate and human decision making, in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation policies. The first applications of this capability have focused on the feedbacks between climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystem productivity and human decisions affecting future land use change, which are in turn connected to human decisions about energy systems and bioenergy production. These experiments have been conducted in the context of the RCP4.5 scenario, one of four pathways of future radiative forcing being used in CMIP5, which constrains future human-induced greenhouse gas emissions from energy and land activities to stabilize radiative forcing at 4.5 W/m2 (~650 ppm CO2 -eq) by 2100. When this pathway is run in GCAM with the climate feedback on terrestrial productivity from CESM, there are implications for both the land use and energy system changes required for stabilization. Early findings indicate that traditional definitions of radiative forcing used in scenario development are missing a critical component of the biogeophysical consequences of land use change and their contribution to effective radiative forcing. Initial full coupling of the two global models has important implications for how climate impacts on terrestrial ecosystems changes the dynamics of future land use change for agriculture and forestry, particularly in the context of a climate mitigation policy designed to reduce emissions from land use as well as energy systems. While these initial experiments have relied on offline coupling methodologies, current and future experiments are utilizing a single model code developed to integrate GCAM into CESM as a component of the land model. This unique capability facilitates many new applications to scientific questions arising from human and biogeophysical systems interaction. Future developments will further integrate the energy system decisions and greenhouse gas emissions as simulated in GCAM with the appropriate climate and land system components of CESM.

Effects of Solar Geoengineering on Vegetation: Implications for Biodiversity and Conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dagon, K.; Schrag, D. P.

2017-12-01

Climate change will have significant impacts on vegetation and biodiversity. Solar geoengineering has potential to reduce the climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions through albedo modification, yet more research is needed to better understand how these techniques might impact terrestrial ecosystems. Here we utilize the fully coupled version of the Community Earth System Model to run transient solar geoengineering simulations designed to stabilize radiative forcing starting mid-century, relative to the Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP6) scenario. Using results from 100-year simulations, we analyze model output through the lens of ecosystem-relevant metrics. We find that solar geoengineering improves the conservation outlook under climate change, but there are still potential impacts on biodiversity. Two commonly used climate classification systems show shifts in vegetation under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, though we acknowledge the associated uncertainties with these systems. We also show that rates of warming and the climate velocity are minimized globally under solar geoengineering by the end of the century, while trends persist over land in the Northern Hemisphere. Shifts in the amplitude of temperature and precipitation seasonal cycles are observed in the results, and have implications for vegetation phenology. Different metrics for vegetation productivity also show decreases under solar geoengineering relative to RCP6, but could be related to the model parameterization of nutrient cycling. Vegetation water cycling is found to be an important mechanism for understanding changes in ecosystems under solar geoengineering.

Widespread parallel population adaptation to climate variation across a radiation: implications for adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Thorpe, Roger S; Barlow, Axel; Malhotra, Anita; Surget-Groba, Yann

2015-03-01

Global warming will impact species in a number of ways, and it is important to know the extent to which natural populations can adapt to anthropogenic climate change by natural selection. Parallel microevolution within separate species can demonstrate natural selection, but several studies of homoplasy have not yet revealed examples of widespread parallel evolution in a generic radiation. Taking into account primary phylogeographic divisions, we investigate numerous quantitative traits (size, shape, scalation, colour pattern and hue) in anole radiations from the mountainous Lesser Antillean islands. Adaptation to climatic differences can lead to very pronounced differences between spatially close populations with all studied traits showing some evidence of parallel evolution. Traits from shape, scalation, pattern and hue (particularly the latter) show widespread evolutionary parallels within these species in response to altitudinal climate variation greater than extreme anthropogenic climate change predicted for 2080. This gives strong evidence of the ability to adapt to climate variation by natural selection throughout this radiation. As anoles can evolve very rapidly, it suggests anthropogenic climate change is likely to be less of a conservation threat than other factors, such as habitat loss and invasive species, in this, Lesser Antillean, biodiversity hot spot. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Exploring Science Teachers' Argumentation and Personal Epistemology About Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Shiyu; Roehrig, Gillian

2017-06-01

This case study investigated the nature of in-service science teachers' argumentation and personal epistemology about global climate change during a 3-year professional development program on climate change education. Qualitative analysis of data from interviews and written assessments revealed that while these teachers grounded their arguments on climate issues in evidence, the evidence was often insufficient to justify their causal claims. Compared with generating arguments for their own views, teachers had more difficulties in constructing evidence-based arguments for alternative perspectives. Moreover, while these teachers shared some similarities in their epistemology about climate science, they varied in their beliefs about specific aspects such as scientists' expertise and the credibility of scientific evidence. Such similarities and distinctions were shown to relate to how teachers used evidence to justify claims in their arguments. The findings also suggested a mismatch between teachers' personal epistemology about science in general and climate science, which was revealed through their argumentation. This work helps to further the ongoing discussions in environmental education about what knowledge and skills teachers need in order to teach climate issues and prepare students for future decision making. It constitutes first steps to facilitate reasoning and argumentation in climate change education and provides important implications for future design of professional development programs.

Climate Change and Health: Transcending Silos to Find Solutions.

PubMed

Machalaba, Catherine; Romanelli, Cristina; Stoett, Peter; Baum, Sarah E; Bouley, Timothy A; Daszak, Peter; Karesh, William B

2015-01-01

Climate change has myriad implications for the health of humans, our ecosystems, and the ecological processes that sustain them. Projections of rising greenhouse gas emissions suggest increasing direct and indirect burden of infectious and noninfectious disease, effects on food and water security, and other societal disruptions. As the effects of climate change cannot be isolated from social and ecological determinants of disease that will mitigate or exacerbate forecasted health outcomes, multidisciplinary collaboration is critically needed. The aim of this article was to review the links between climate change and its upstream drivers (ie, processes leading to greenhouse gas emissions) and health outcomes, and identify existing opportunities to leverage more integrated global health and climate actions to prevent, prepare for, and respond to anthropogenic pressures. We conducted a literature review of current and projected health outcomes associated with climate change, drawing on findings and our collective expertise to review opportunities for adaptation and mitigation across disciplines. Health outcomes related to climate change affect a wide range of stakeholders, providing ready collaborative opportunities for interventions, which can be differentiated by addressing the upstream drivers leading to climate change or the downstream effects of climate change itself. Although health professionals are challenged with risks from climate change and its drivers, the adverse health outcomes cannot be resolved by the public health community alone. A phase change in global health is needed to move from a passive responder in partnership with other societal sectors to drive innovative alternatives. It is essential for global health to step outside of its traditional boundaries to engage with other stakeholders to develop policy and practical solutions to mitigate disease burden of climate change and its drivers; this will also yield compound benefits that help address other health, environmental, and societal challenges. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change

PubMed Central

Farrell, Justin

2016-01-01

Drawing on large-scale computational data and methods, this research demonstrates how polarization efforts are influenced by a patterned network of political and financial actors. These dynamics, which have been notoriously difficult to quantify, are illustrated here with a computational analysis of climate change politics in the United States. The comprehensive data include all individual and organizational actors in the climate change countermovement (164 organizations), as well as all written and verbal texts produced by this network between 1993–2013 (40,785 texts, more than 39 million words). Two main findings emerge. First, that organizations with corporate funding were more likely to have written and disseminated texts meant to polarize the climate change issue. Second, and more importantly, that corporate funding influences the actual thematic content of these polarization efforts, and the discursive prevalence of that thematic content over time. These findings provide new, and comprehensive, confirmation of dynamics long thought to be at the root of climate change politics and discourse. Beyond the specifics of climate change, this paper has important implications for understanding ideological polarization more generally, and the increasing role of private funding in determining why certain polarizing themes are created and amplified. Lastly, the paper suggests that future studies build on the novel approach taken here that integrates large-scale textual analysis with social networks. PMID:26598653

Corporate funding and ideological polarization about climate change.

PubMed

Farrell, Justin

2016-01-05

Drawing on large-scale computational data and methods, this research demonstrates how polarization efforts are influenced by a patterned network of political and financial actors. These dynamics, which have been notoriously difficult to quantify, are illustrated here with a computational analysis of climate change politics in the United States. The comprehensive data include all individual and organizational actors in the climate change countermovement (164 organizations), as well as all written and verbal texts produced by this network between 1993-2013 (40,785 texts, more than 39 million words). Two main findings emerge. First, that organizations with corporate funding were more likely to have written and disseminated texts meant to polarize the climate change issue. Second, and more importantly, that corporate funding influences the actual thematic content of these polarization efforts, and the discursive prevalence of that thematic content over time. These findings provide new, and comprehensive, confirmation of dynamics long thought to be at the root of climate change politics and discourse. Beyond the specifics of climate change, this paper has important implications for understanding ideological polarization more generally, and the increasing role of private funding in determining why certain polarizing themes are created and amplified. Lastly, the paper suggests that future studies build on the novel approach taken here that integrates large-scale textual analysis with social networks.

A 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change in the Pacific.

PubMed

McIver, Lachlan; Bowen, Kathryn; Hanna, Elizabeth; Iddings, Steven

2017-06-01

Small Pacific Island countries (PICs) are among the most vulnerable countries in the world to the anticipated detrimental health effects of climate change. The assessment of health vulnerabilities and planning adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change on health tests traditional health governance structures and depends on strong linkages and partnerships between actors involved in these vital processes. This article reviews the actors, processes and contexts of the climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project carried out by the World Health Organization and health sector partners in three island countries in the Micronesian region of the Pacific throughout 2010 and 2011: Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands and Palau. Despite their shared history and cultural characteristics, the findings and implications of this article are considered to have substantial relevance and potential application to other PICs. The modified 'Healthy Islands' framework for climate change and health adaptation presented in this article draws upon real-world experience and governance theory from both the health and climate change literature and, for the first time, places health systems adaptation within the vision for 'Healthy Islands' in the Pacific region. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Contesting the 'national interest' and maintaining 'our lifestyle': a discursive analysis of political rhetoric around climate change.

PubMed

Kurz, Tim; Augoustinos, Martha; Crabb, Shona

2010-09-01

The release of the fourth United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report in February 2007 prompted a flood of responses from political leaders around the globe. Perhaps nowhere was this more apparent than in Australia, where its release coincided with the first sitting week of the Australian Parliament, in an election year. The current study involves a discursive analysis of climate change rhetoric produced by politicians from the major Australian political parties in the period following the release of the IPCC leading up to the national election. Data include both transcripts of parliamentary debate and statements directly broadcast in the media. The analysis focuses on the various ways in which the issue of climate change was invoked and rhetorically managed by each of the two parties in the lead up to the election. In particular, it focuses on the ways in which appeals to the 'national interest' and 'lifestyle maintenance', both regular features of political rhetoric, were mobilized by both parties to discursively manage their positions on the climate change issue. Implications of the ways in which such appeals were constructed are discussed in relation to the discursive limits of the ways in which the issue of climate change is constructed in public debate.

Protective factors for mental health and well-being in a changing climate: Perspectives from Inuit youth in Nunatsiavut, Labrador.

PubMed

Petrasek MacDonald, Joanna; Cunsolo Willox, Ashlee; Ford, James D; Shiwak, Inez; Wood, Michele

2015-09-01

The Canadian Arctic is experiencing rapid changes in climatic conditions, with implications for Inuit communities widely documented. Youth have been identified as an at-risk population, with likely impacts on mental health and well-being. This study identifies and characterizes youth-specific protective factors that enhance well-being in light of a rapidly changing climate, and examines how climatic and environmental change challenges these. In-depth conversational interviews were conducted with youth aged 15-25 from the five communities of the Nunatsiavut region of Labrador, Canada: Nain, Hopedale, Postville, Makkovik, and Rigolet. Five key protective factors were identified as enhancing their mental health and well-being: being on the land; connecting to Inuit culture; strong communities; relationships with family and friends; and staying busy. Changing sea ice and weather conditions were widely reported to be compromising these protective factors by reducing access to the land, and increasing the danger of land-based activities. This study contributes to existing work on Northern climate change adaptation by identifying factors that enhance youth resilience and, if incorporated into adaptation strategies, may contribute to creating successful and effective adaptation responses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Costs of Climate Change: A Study of Cholera in Tanzania

PubMed Central

Trærup, Sara L. M.; Ortiz, Ramon A.; Markandya, Anil

2011-01-01

Increased temperatures and changes in rainfall patterns as a result of climate change are widely recognized to entail potentially serious consequences for human health, including an increased risk of diarrheal diseases. This study integrates historical data on temperature and rainfall with the burden of disease from cholera in Tanzania and uses socioeconomic data to control for the impacts of general development on the risk of cholera. The results show a significant relationship between temperature and the incidence of cholera. For a 1 degree Celsius temperature increase the initial relative risk of cholera increases by 15 to 29 percent. Based on the modeling results, we project the number and costs of additional cases of cholera that can be attributed to climate change by 2030 in Tanzania for a 1 and 2 degree increase in temperatures, respectively. The total costs of cholera attributable to climate change are shown to be in the range of 0.32 to 1.4 percent of GDP in Tanzania 2030. The results provide useful insights into national-level estimates of the implications of climate change on the health sector and offer information which can feed into both national and international debates on financing and planning adaptation. PMID:22408580

Native bees buffer the negative impact of climate warming on honey bee pollination of watermelon crops.

PubMed

Rader, Romina; Reilly, James; Bartomeus, Ignasi; Winfree, Rachael

2013-10-01

If climate change affects pollinator-dependent crop production, this will have important implications for global food security because insect pollinators contribute to production for 75% of the leading global food crops. We investigate whether climate warming could result in indirect impacts upon crop pollination services via an overlooked mechanism, namely temperature-induced shifts in the diurnal activity patterns of pollinators. Using a large data set on bee pollination of watermelon crops, we predict how pollination services might change under various climate change scenarios. Our results show that under the most extreme IPCC scenario (A1F1), pollination services by managed honey bees are expected to decline by 14.5%, whereas pollination services provided by most native, wild taxa are predicted to increase, resulting in an estimated aggregate change in pollination services of +4.5% by 2099. We demonstrate the importance of native biodiversity in buffering the impacts of climate change, because crop pollination services would decline more steeply without the native, wild pollinators. More generally, our study provides an important example of how biodiversity can stabilize ecosystem services against environmental change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Untangling climatic and autogenic signals in peat records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morris, Paul J.; Baird, Andrew J.; Young, Dylan M.; Swindles, Graeme T.

2016-04-01

Raised bogs contain potentially valuable information about Holocene climate change. However, autogenic processes may disconnect peatland hydrological behaviour from climate, and overwrite and degrade climatic signals in peat records. How can genuine climate signals be separated from autogenic changes? What level of detail of climatic information should we expect to be able to recover from peat-based reconstructions? We used an updated version of the DigiBog model to simulate peatland development and response to reconstructed Holocene rainfall and temperature reconstructions. The model represents key processes that are influential in peatland development and climate signal preservation, and includes a network of feedbacks between peat accumulation, decomposition, hydraulic structure and hydrological processes. It also incorporates the effects of temperature upon evapotranspiration, plant (litter) productivity and peat decomposition. Negative feedbacks in the model cause simulated water-table depths and peat humification records to exhibit homeostatic recovery from prescribed changes in rainfall, chiefly through changes in drainage. However, the simulated bogs show less resilience to changes in temperature, which cause lasting alterations to peatland structure and function and may therefore be more readily detectable in peat records. The network of feedbacks represented in DigiBog also provide both high- and low-pass filters for climatic information, meaning that the fidelity with which climate signals are preserved in simulated peatlands is determined by both the magnitude and the rate of climate change. Large-magnitude climatic events of an intermediate frequency (i.e., multi-decadal to centennial) are best preserved in the simulated bogs. We found that simulated humification records are further degraded by a phenomenon known as secondary decomposition. Decomposition signals are consistently offset from the climatic events that generate them, and decomposition records of dry-wet-dry climate sequences appear to be particularly vulnerable to overwriting. Our findings have direct implications not only for the interpretation of peat-based records of past climates, but also for understanding the likely vulnerability of peatland ecosystems and carbon stocks to future climate change.

Climate change is advancing spring onset across the U.S. national park system

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monahan, William B.; Rosemartin, Alyssa; Gerst, Katharine L.; Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Gross, John E.; Weltzin, Jake F.

2016-01-01

Many U.S. national parks are already at the extreme warm end of their historical temperature distributions. With rapidly warming conditions, park resource management will be enhanced by information on seasonality of climate that supports adjustments in the timing of activities such as treating invasive species, operating visitor facilities, and scheduling climate-related events (e.g., flower festivals and fall leaf-viewing). Seasonal changes in vegetation, such as pollen, seed, and fruit production, are important drivers of ecological processes in parks, and phenology has thus been identified as a key indicator for park monitoring. Phenology is also one of the most proximate biological responses to climate change. Here, we use estimates of start of spring based on climatically modeled dates of first leaf and first bloom derived from indicator plant species to evaluate the recent timing of spring onset (past 10–30 yr) in each U.S. natural resource park relative to its historical range of variability across the past 112 yr (1901–2012). Of the 276 high latitude to subtropical parks examined, spring is advancing in approximately three-quarters of parks (76%), and 53% of parks are experiencing “extreme” early springs that exceed 95% of historical conditions. Our results demonstrate how changes in climate seasonality are important for understanding ecological responses to climate change, and further how spatial variability in effects of climate change necessitates different approaches to management. We discuss how our results inform climate change adaptation challenges and opportunities facing parks, with implications for other protected areas, by exploring consequences for resource management and planning.

The Use of Statistical Downscaling to Project Regional Climate Changes as they Relate to Future Energy Production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werth, D. W.; O'Steen, L.; Chen, K.; Altinakar, M. S.; Garrett, A.; Aleman, S.; Ramalingam, V.

2010-12-01

Global climate change has the potential for profound impacts on society, and poses significant challenges to government and industry in the areas of energy security and sustainability. Given that the ability to exploit energy resources often depends on the climate, the possibility of climate change means we cannot simply assume that the untapped potential of today will still exist in the future. Predictions of future climate are generally based on global climate models (GCMs) which, due to computational limitations, are run at spatial resolutions of hundreds of kilometers. While the results from these models can predict climatic trends averaged over large spatial and temporal scales, their ability to describe the effects of atmospheric phenomena that affect weather on regional to local scales is inadequate. We propose the use of several optimized statistical downscaling techniques that can infer climate change at the local scale from coarse resolution GCM predictions, and apply the results to assess future sustainability for two sources of energy production dependent on adequate water resources: nuclear power (through the dissipation of waste heat from cooling towers, ponds, etc.) and hydroelectric power. All methods will be trained with 20th century data, and applied to data from the years 2040-2049 to get the local-scale changes. Models of cooling tower operation and hydropower potential will then use the downscaled data to predict the possible changes in energy production, and the implications of climate change on plant siting, design, and contribution to the future energy grid can then be examined.