Climate Change, Human Health, and Biomedical Research: Analysis of the National Institutes of Health Research Portfolio

PubMed Central

Balbus, John M.; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E.; Newton, Sheila A.; Reid, Britt C.; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P.

2013-01-01

Background: According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. Objectives: In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. Methods: A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. Results: This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Conclusions: Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH’s strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health. PMID:23552460

Streamflow responses to past and projected future changes in climate at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire, USA

Treesearch

John L. Campbell; Charles T. Driscoll; Afshin Pourmokhtarian; Katharine Hayhoe

2011-01-01

Climate change has the potential to alter streamflow regimes, having ecological, economic, and societal implications. In the northeastern United States, it is unclear how climate change may affect surface water supply, which is of critical importance in this densely populated region. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the timing...

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on the risk of infection by water-transmitted pathogens.

PubMed

Sterk, Ankie; Schijven, Jack; de Nijs, Ton; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

2013-11-19

Climate change is likely to affect the infectious disease burden from exposure to pathogens in water used for drinking and recreation. Effective intervention measures require quantification of impacts of climate change on the distribution of pathogens in the environment and their potential effects on human health. Objectives of this systematic review were to summarize current knowledge available to estimate how climate change may directly and indirectly affect infection risks due to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, norovirus, and Vibrio. Secondary objectives were to prioritize natural processes and interactions that are susceptible to climate change and to identify knowledge gaps. Search strategies were determined based on a conceptual model and scenarios with the main emphasis on The Netherlands. The literature search resulted in a large quantity of publications on climate variables affecting pathogen input and behavior in aquatic environments. However, not all processes and pathogens are evenly covered by the literature, and in many cases, the direction of change is still unclear. To make useful predictions of climate change, it is necessary to combine both negative and positive effects. This review provides an overview of the most important effects of climate change on human health and shows the importance of QMRA to quantify the net effects.

Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic, Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Trærup, Sara

2009-05-01

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

Development and climate change: a mainstreaming approach for assessing economic, social, and environmental impacts of adaptation measures.

PubMed

Halsnaes, Kirsten; Traerup, Sara

2009-05-01

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.

Simulated soil organic carbon changes in Maryland are affected by tillage, climate change, and crop yield

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The impact of climate change on soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in no-till (NT) and conventionally-tilled (CT) agricultural systems is poorly understood. The objective of this study was to simulate the impact of projected climate change (air temperature and precipitation) on SOC to 50 cm soil depth...

A framework for assessing climate change vulnerability and identifying adaptation responses in the central hardwoods region

Treesearch

Patricia R. Butler; Leslie A. Brandt; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; Patricia D. Shannon; Chris W. Swanston

2014-01-01

The Central Hardwood region contains a mosaic of forests, woodlands, savannas, and other ecosystems that will increasingly be affected by a changing climate over the next century. Understanding potential impacts is important to sustaining healthy forests under changing conditions. The objectives of the Climate Change Response Framework (forestadaptation.org) are to...

Utilizing the NASA Data-enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education Resource for Elementary Pre-service Teachers in a Technology Integration Education Course.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, E. M.; Moore, T.; Hale, S. R.; Hayden, L. B.; Johnson, D.

2014-12-01

The preservice teachers enrolled in the EDUC 203 Introduction to Computer Instructional Technology course, primarily for elementary-level had created climate change educational lessons based upon their use of the NASA Data-enhanced Investigations for Climate Change Education (DICCE). NASA climate education datasets and tools were introduced to faculty of Minority Serving Institutions through a grant from the NASA Innovations in Climate Education program. These lessons were developed to study various ocean processes involving phytoplankton's chlorophyll production over time for specific geographic areas using the Giovanni NASA software tool. The pre-service teachers had designed the climate change content that will assist K-4 learners to identify and predict phytoplankton sources attributed to sea surface temperatures, nutrient levels, sunlight, and atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with annual chlorophyll production. From the EDUC 203 course content, the preservice teachers applied the three phases of the technology integration planning (TIP) model in developing their lessons. The Zunal website (http://www.zunal.com) served as a hypermedia tool for online instructional delivery in presenting the climate change content, the NASA climate datasets, and the visualization tools used for the production of elementary learning units. A rubric was developed to assess students' development of their webquests to meet the overall learning objectives and specific climate education objectives. Accompanying each webquest is a rubric with a defined table of criteria, for a teacher to assess students completing each of the required tasks for each lesson. Two primary challenges of technology integration for elementary pre-service teachers were 1) motivating pre-service teachers to be interested in climate education and 2) aligning elementary learning objectives with the Next Generation science standards of climate education that are non-existent in the Common Core State Standards.

BOREAL FOREST CARBON STOCKS AND WOOD SUPPLY: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE RESPONSES TO CHANGING CLIMATE, AGRICULTURE AND SPECIES AVAILABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

The paper assesses the role in boreal forest growth played by environment. It examines past changes in climate coupled with glaciation, and future changes in climate coupled with agricultural land use and tree species availability. The objective was to define and evaluate potenti...

Managing for multiple resources under climate change: national forests

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce; Geoffrey M. Blate; Steven G. McNulty; Constance I. Millar; Susanne Moser; Ronald P. Neilson; David L. Peterson

2009-01-01

This study explores potential adaptation approaches in planning andmanagement that theUnited States Forest Servicemight adopt to help achieve its goals and objectives in the face of climate change. Availability of information, vulnerability of ecological and socio-economic systems, and uncertainties associated with climate change, as well as the interacting non-...

75 FR 37405 - Notice of Public Review and Comment Period on NOAA's Next Generation Strategic Plan (NGSP)

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-06-29

... Federal role in responding to the Nation's most urgent challenges, ranging from climate change, severe... changes in climate, weather, oceans, and coasts, share knowledge and information with others, and conserve... changing climate system and its impacts. Objective: Integrated assessments of current and future states of...

Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change.

PubMed

Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E

2017-12-31

Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large rivers. The framework was applied to the Pearl River basin (PRB), China where sufficient flow to the delta is required to reduce saltwater intrusion in the dry season. Before identifying and assessing robust water allocation plans for the future, the performance of ten state-of-the-art MOEAs (multi-objective evolutionary algorithms) is evaluated for the water allocation problem in the PRB. The Borg multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (Borg MOEA), which is a self-adaptive optimization algorithm, has the best performance during the historical periods. Therefore it is selected to generate new water allocation plans for the future (2079-2099). This study shows that robust decision making using carefully selected MOEAs can help limit saltwater intrusion in the Pearl River Delta. However, the framework could perform poorly due to larger than expected climate change impacts on water availability. Results also show that subjective design choices from the researchers and/or water managers could potentially affect the ability of the model framework, and cause the most robust water allocation plans to fail under future climate change. Developing robust allocation plans in a river basin suffering from increasing water shortage requires the researchers and water managers to well characterize future climate change of the study regions and vulnerabilities of their tools. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Flooded bus barns and buckled rails: public transportation and climate change adaptation.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-08-01

The objective of this project is to provide transit professionals with information and analysis relevant to adapting U.S. public transportation assets and services to climate change impacts. Climate impacts such as heat waves and flooding will hinder...

Cluster analysis of Southeastern U.S. climate stations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stooksbury, D. E.; Michaels, P. J.

1991-09-01

A two-step cluster analysis of 449 Southeastern climate stations is used to objectively determine general climate clusters (groups of climate stations) for eight southeastern states. The purpose is objectively to define regions of climatic homogeneity that should perform more robustly in subsequent climatic impact models. This type of analysis has been successfully used in many related climate research problems including the determination of corn/climate districts in Iowa (Ortiz-Valdez, 1985) and the classification of synoptic climate types (Davis, 1988). These general climate clusters may be more appropriate for climate research than the standard climate divisions (CD) groupings of climate stations, which are modifications of the agro-economic United States Department of Agriculture crop reporting districts. Unlike the CD's, these objectively determined climate clusters are not restricted by state borders and thus have reduced multicollinearity which makes them more appropriate for the study of the impact of climate and climatic change.

Assessment of the potential effects of climate change on water resources of the Delaware River basin; work plan for 1988-90

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ayers, M.A.; Leavesley, G.H.

1989-01-01

The current consensus is that some global atmospheric warming will occur as a result of increasing ' greenhouse ' gases. Water resources scientists, planners, and managers are concerned about the uncertainty associated with climatic-change effects on water supplies and what planning might be necessary to mitigate the effects. Collaborative studies between climatologists, hydrologists, biologists, and others are needed to gain this understanding. The Delaware River basin study is an interdisciplinary effort on the part of the U.S. Geological Survey that was initiated to improve understanding of the sensitivity of the basin 's water resources to the potential effects of climate change. The Delaware River basin is 12,765 sq mi in area, crosses five physiographic provinces, and supplies water for an estimated 20 million people within and outside the basin. Climate change presumably will result in changes in precipitation and temperature and could have significant effects on evapotranspiration, streamflow, and groundwater recharge. A rise in sea level is likely to accompany global warming and, depending on changes in freshwater inflows, could alter the salinity of the Estuary and increase saline-water intrusion into adjacent aquifer systems. Because the potential effects are not well understood, this report discusses how the effects of climate change on the basin 's water resources might be defined and evaluated. The study objective is to investigate the basin 's hydrologic response, under existing water management policy and infrastructure, to various scenarios of climate change. Specific objectives include defining the temporal and spatial variability of basin hydrology under existing climate conditions , developing climate-change scenarios, and evaluating the potential effects and sensitivities of basin water availability to these scenarios. The objectives will be accomplished through intensive modeling analysis of the basin 's climate, watershed, estuary, and aquifer systems. (USGS)

Radiative forcing of climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramanswamy, V.; Shine, Keith; Leovy, Conway; Wang, Wei-Chyung; Rodhe, Henning; Wuebbles, Donald J.; Ding, M.; Lelieveld, Joseph; Edmonds, Jae A.; Mccormick, M. Patrick

1991-01-01

An update of the scientific discussions presented in Chapter 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report is presented. The update discusses the atmospheric radiative and chemical species of significance for climate change. There are two major objectives of the present update. The first is an extension of the discussion on the Global Warming Potentials (GWP's), including a reevaluation in view of the updates in the lifetimes of the radiatively active species. The second important objective is to underscore major developments in the radiative forcing of climate due to the observed stratospheric ozone losses occurring between 1979 and 1990.

Interactions of changing climate and shifts in forest composition on stand carbon balance

Treesearch

Chiang Jyh-Min; Louis Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim Brown

2006-01-01

Given that climate influences forest biogeographic distribution, many researchers have created models predicting shifts in tree species range with future climate change scenarios. The objective of this study is to investigate the forest carbon consequences of shifts in stand species composition with current and future climate scenarios using such a model.

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

Treesearch

Rachel A. Loehman; Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Zhiwei Wu

2017-01-01

Context: Interactions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs. Objectives We used the mechanistic...

Obama Presents Far-Reaching Climate Plan, Addresses Keystone Pipeline Proposal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2013-07-01

Stating that climate change "is a challenge that does not pause for partisan gridlock," U.S. President Barack Obama took matters into his own hands and presented a broad-based climate action plan on 25 June. The plan, which relies on existing administrative authority and does not require congressional approval, includes three primary objectives: cutting carbon pollution in the United States, preparing the nation for the impacts of climate change, and leading international efforts to address climate change.

Focus on Agriculture and Forestry Benefits of Reducing Climate Change Impacts

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this focus issue is to present the methods and results of modeling exercises that estimate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and forestry under a consistent set of climate projections that represent futures with and without global-scale GHG mitigation....

Undergraduate Students as Climate Communicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.; Mullendore, G. L.

2012-12-01

The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) are partnering with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students will have the opportunity to participate in guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. An integral part of the learning process will include training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of a webcast about investigating aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Several departments are involved in the educational program.

Environmental literacy framework with a focus on climate change (ELF): a framework and resources for teaching climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huffman, L. T.; Blythe, D.; Dahlman, L. E.; Fischbein, S.; Johnson, K.; Kontar, Y.; Rack, F. R.; Kulhanek, D. K.; Pennycook, J.; Reed, J.; Youngman, B.; Reeves, M.; Thomas, R.

2010-12-01

The challenges of communicating climate change science to non-technical audiences present a daunting task, but one that is recognized in the science community as urgent and essential. ANDRILL's (ANtarctic geological DRILLing) international network of scientists, engineers, technicians and educators work together to convey a deeper understanding of current geoscience research as well as the process of science to non-technical audiences. One roadblock for educators who recognize the need to teach climate change has been the lack of a comprehensive, integrated set of resources and activities that are related to the National Science Education Standards. Pieces of the climate change puzzle can be found in the excellent work of the groups of science and education professionals who wrote the Essential Principles of Ocean Sciences, Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Science, Earth Science Literacy Principles: The Big Ideas and Supporting Concepts of Earth Science, and Essential Principals and Fundamental Concepts for Atmospheric Science Literacy, but teachers have precious little time to search out the climate change goals and objectives in those frameworks and then find the resources to teach them. Through NOAA funding, ANDRILL has created a new framework, The Environmental Literacy Framework with a Focus on Climate Change (ELF), drawing on the works of the aforementioned groups, and promoting an Earth Systems approach to teaching climate change through five units: Atmosphere, Biosphere, Geosphere, Hydrosphere/Cryosphere, and Energy as the driver of interactions within and between the “spheres.” Each key concept in the framework has a hands-on, inquiry activity and matching NOAA resources for teaching the objectives. In its present form, we present a ‘road map’ for teaching climate change and a set of resources intended to continue to evolve over time.

Climate Change Communicators: The C3E3 Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.

2013-12-01

The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. More than 60 students participated in guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Several departments are involved in the educational program.

Undergraduate Students As Effective Climate Change Communicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Joseph, J.; Mullendore, G. L.

2014-12-01

The University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA), San Antonio College (SAC), and the University of North Dakota (UND) have partnered with NASA to provide underrepresented undergraduates from UTSA, SAC, and other community colleges climate-related research and education experiences through the Climate Change Communication: Engineer, Environmental science, and Education (C3E3) project. The program aims to develop a robust response to climate change by providing K-16 climate change education; enhance the effectiveness of K-16 education particularly in engineering and other STEM disciplines by use of new instructional technologies; increase the enrollment in engineering programs and the number of engineering degrees awarded by showing engineering's usefulness in relation to the much-discussed contemporary issue of climate change; increase persistence in STEM degrees by providing student research opportunities; and increase the ethnic diversity of those receiving engineering degrees and help ensure an ethnically diverse response to climate change. Students participated in the second summer internship funded by the project. The program is in its third year. More than 75 students participated in a guided research experiences aligned with NASA Science Plan objectives for climate and Earth system science and the educational objectives of the three institutions. The students went through training in modern media technology (webcasts), and in using this technology to communicate the information on climate change to others, especially high school students, culminating in production of webcasts on investigating the aspects of climate change using NASA data. Content developed is leveraged by NASA Earth observation data and NASA Earth system models and tools. Three Colleges were involved in the program: Engineering, Education, and Science.

Assessment of the Effect of Climate Change on Grain Yields in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chou, J.

2006-12-01

The paper elaborates the social background and research background; makes clear what the key scientific issues need to be resolved and where the difficulties are. In the research area of parasailing the grain yield change caused by climate change, massive works have been done both in the domestic and in the foreign. It is our upcoming work to evaluate how our countrywide climate change information provided by this pattern influence our economic and social development; and how to make related policies and countermeasures. the main idea in this paper is that the grain yield change is by no means the linear composition of social economy function effect and the climatic change function effect. This paper identifies the economic evaluation object, proposes one new concept - climate change output. The grain yields change affected by the social factors and the climatic change working together. Climate change influences the grain yields by the non ¨C linear function from both climate change and social factor changes, not only by climate change itself. Therefore, in my paper, the appraisal object is defined as: The social factors change based on actual social changing situations; under the two kinds of climate change situation, the invariable climate change situation and variable climate change situation; the difference of grain yield outputs is called " climate change output ", In order to solve this problem, we propose a method to analyze and imitate on the historical materials. Giving the condition that the climate is invariable, the social economic factor changes cause the grain yield change. However, this grain yield change is a tentative quantity index, not an actual quantity number. So we use the existing historical materials to exam the climate change output, based on the characteristic that social factor changes greater in year than in age, but the climate factor changes greater in age than in year. The paper proposes and establishes one economy - climate model (C-D-C model) to appraise the grain yield change caused by the climatic change. Also the preliminary test on this model has been done. In selection of the appraisal methods, we take the C-D production function model, which has been proved more mature in the economic research, as our fundamental model. Then, we introduce climate index (arid index) to the C-D model to develop one new model. This new model utilizes the climatic change factor in the economical model to appraise how the climatic change influence the grain yield change. The new way of appraise should have the better application prospect. The economy - climate model (The C-D-C model) has been applied on the eight Chinese regions that we divide; it has been proved satisfactory in its feasibility, rationality and the application prospect. So we can provide the theoretical fundamentals for policy-making under the more complex and uncertain climate change. Therefore, we open a new possible channel for the global climate change research moving toward the actual social, economic life.

Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) Final Scientific/Technical Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chaudhary, Aashish

Seven Department of Energy (DOE) national laboratories, Universities, and Kitware, undertook a coordinated effort to build an Earth system modeling capability tailored to meet the climate change research strategic objectives of the DOE Office of Science, as well as the broader climate change application needs of other DOE programs.

Climate Change and Older Americans: State of the Science

PubMed Central

Hurley, Bradford J.; Schultz, Peter A.; Jaglom, Wendy S.; Krishnan, Nisha; Harris, Melinda

2012-01-01

Background: Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. Objective: The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. Methods: We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. Discussion: A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. Conclusions: Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors. PMID:23033457

Innovating Science Teaching by Participatory Action Research--Reflections from an Interdisciplinary Project of Curriculum Innovation on Teaching about Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feierabend, Timo; Eilks, Ingo

2011-01-01

This paper describes a three-year curriculum innovation project on teaching about climate change. The innovation for this study focused on a socio-critical approach towards teaching climate change in four different teaching domains (biology, chemistry, physics and politics). The teaching itself explicitly aimed at general educational objectives,…

Newspaper Framing of Climate Change in Nigeria and Ghana

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nwabueze, Chinenye; Egbra, Stella

2016-01-01

This study is a content analysis of two newspapers from Nigeria and Ghana to determine the coverage and framing of climate change issues for a period of 7 months. The main objective of this study is to find out how climate change stories are framed in Nigerian and Ghanaian national dailies. It was found among others, that the overall dominant…

Climate change, aquatic ecosystems, and fishes in the Rocky Mountain West: implications and alternatives for management

Treesearch

Bruce E. Rieman; Daniel J. Isaak

2010-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is rapidly altering aquatic ecosystems across the Rocky Mountain West and may detrimentally impact populations of sensitive species that are often the focus of conservation efforts. The objective of this report is to synthesize a growing literature on these topics to address the following questions: (1) What is changing in climate and...

Land use allocation model considering climate change impact

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Yoon, E. J.; Song, Y. I.

2017-12-01

In Korea, climate change adaptation plans are being developed for each administrative district based on impact assessments constructed in various fields. This climate change impact assessments are superimposed on the actual space, which causes problems in land use allocation because the spatial distribution of individual impacts may be different each other. This implies that trade-offs between climate change impacts can occur depending on the composition of land use. Moreover, the actual space is complexly intertwined with various factors such as required area, legal regulations, and socioeconomic values, so land use allocation in consideration of climate change can be very difficult problem to solve (Liu et al. 2012; Porta et al. 2013).Optimization techniques can generate a sufficiently good alternatives for land use allocation at the strategic level if only the fitness function of relationship between impact and land use composition are derived. It has also been noted that land use optimization model is more effective than the scenario-based prediction model in achieving the objectives for problem solving (Zhang et al. 2014). Therefore in this study, we developed a quantitative tool, MOGA (Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm), which can generate a comprehensive land use allocations considering various climate change impacts, and apply it to the Gangwon-do in Korea. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are the most popular optimization technique to address multi-objective in land use allocation. Also, it allows for immediate feedback to stake holders because it can run a number of experiments with different parameter values. And it is expected that land use decision makers and planners can formulate a detailed spatial plan or perform additional analysis based on the result of optimization model. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program (Project number: 2014001310006)"

False Balance in Climate Change Reporting Among TV Meteorologists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timm, K.; Maibach, E.; Boykoff, M.; Broeckelman-Post, M.; Myers, T.; Perkins, D. R., IV

2017-12-01

False balance is the journalistic practice of giving equal weight to both sides of a story, regardless of an established truth and validity on one side. Despite widespread scientific agreement about the anthropogenic causes of climate change, false balance on the subject of climate change remains common in television despite a documented decline in other media. In this exploratory study, 452 American TV meteorologists were surveyed about their climate change beliefs and asked how often and why they present an opposing viewpoint when they present about human contributions to climate change. The results indicate that this practice is fairly common, with nearly 30% of TV meteorologists presenting an opposing viewpoint at least half the time or more frequently when they present about climate change. Weathercasters described including an opposing viewpoint in their stories for many different reasons, including that it is essential to objective and balanced reporting, that it is used to acknowledge different audience viewpoints, and because the science is perceived to be uncertain. The results also suggest that being more certain that climate change is happening, that it is primarily caused by humans, and perceiving the full extent of the scientific consensus about human-caused climate change, are associated with decreased frequency of presenting an opposing viewpoint. This is the first time the issue of false balance has been studied in the context of TV weathercasters, and while more research is needed, these results provide some preliminary evidence to suggest that increasing weathercasters' understanding of the scientific consensus of human caused climate change may help reduce false balance reporting. Furthermore, as meteorologists and weathercasters become more prominent reporters of local climate news, it will be important for them to have techniques to accurately report the science, while maintaining their sense of objectivity.

Toward Robust Climate Baselining: Objective Assessment of Climate Change Using Widely Distributed Miniaturized Sensors for Accurate World-Wide Geophysical Measurements

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Teller, E.; Leith, C.; Canavan, G.; Marion, J.; Wood, L.

2001-11-13

A gap-free, world-wide, ocean-, atmosphere-, and land surface-spanning geophysical data-set of three decades time-duration containing the full set of geophysical parameters characterizing global weather is the scientific perquisite for defining the climate; the generally-accepted definition in the meteorological community is that climate is the 30-year running-average of weather. Until such a tridecadal climate baseline exists, climate change discussions inevitably will have a semi-speculative, vs. a purely scientific, character, as the baseline against which changes are referenced will at least somewhat uncertain.

Reservoir adaptive operating rules based on both of historical streamflow and future projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Wei; Liu, Pan; Wang, Hao; Chen, Jie; Lei, Xiaohui; Feng, Maoyuan

2017-10-01

Climate change is affecting hydrological variables and consequently is impacting water resources management. Historical strategies are no longer applicable under climate change. Therefore, adaptive management, especially adaptive operating rules for reservoirs, has been developed to mitigate the possible adverse effects of climate change. However, to date, adaptive operating rules are generally based on future projections involving uncertainties under climate change, yet ignoring historical information. To address this, we propose an approach for deriving adaptive operating rules considering both historical information and future projections, namely historical and future operating rules (HAFOR). A robustness index was developed by comparing benefits from HAFOR with benefits from conventional operating rules (COR). For both historical and future streamflow series, maximizations of both average benefits and the robustness index were employed as objectives, and four trade-offs were implemented to solve the multi-objective problem. Based on the integrated objective, the simulation-based optimization method was used to optimize the parameters of HAFOR. Using the Dongwushi Reservoir in China as a case study, HAFOR was demonstrated to be an effective and robust method for developing adaptive operating rules under the uncertain changing environment. Compared with historical or projected future operating rules (HOR or FPOR), HAFOR can reduce the uncertainty and increase the robustness for future projections, especially regarding results of reservoir releases and volumes. HAFOR, therefore, facilitates adaptive management in the context that climate change is difficult to predict accurately.

Exploring the Climate Change, Migration and Conflict Nexus.

PubMed

Burrows, Kate; Kinney, Patrick L

2016-04-22

The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict.

Exploring the Climate Change, Migration and Conflict Nexus

PubMed Central

Burrows, Kate; Kinney, Patrick L.

2016-01-01

The potential link between climate change, migration, and conflict has been widely discussed and is increasingly viewed by policy makers as a security issue. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the role that climate variability and change play among the many drivers of migration and conflict. The overall objective of this paper is to explore the potential pathways linking climate change, migration and increased risk of conflict. We review the existing literature surrounding this issue and break the problem into two components: the links between climate change and migration, and those between migration and conflict. We found a large range of views regarding the importance of climate change as a driver for increasing rates of migration and subsequently of conflict. We argue that future research should focus not only on the climate-migration-conflict pathway but also work to understand the other pathways by which climate variability and change might exacerbate conflict. We conclude by proposing five questions to help guide future research on the link between climate change, migration, and conflict. PMID:27110806

Integrating climate change considerations into forest management tools and training

Treesearch

Linda M. Nagel; Christopher W. Swanston; Maria K. Janowiak

2010-01-01

Silviculturists are currently facing the challenge of developing management strategies that meet broad ecological and social considerations in spite of a high degree of uncertainty in future climatic conditions. Forest managers need state-of-the-art knowledge about climate change and potential impacts to facilitate development of silvicultural objectives and...

Assessing the site-specific impacts of climate change on hydrology, soil erosion and crop yields in the Loess Plateau of China

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate changes can have great impacts on fragile agro-ecosystems in the Loess Plateau of China, which is one of the most severely eroded regions in the world. The objective of this study is to assess the site-specific impacts of projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2039 on hydrology, soil l...

Fertility, immigration, and the fight against climate change.

PubMed

Earl, Jake; Hickey, Colin; Rieder, Travis N

2017-10-01

Several philosophers have recently argued that policies aimed at reducing human fertility are a practical and morally justifiable way to mitigate the risk of dangerous climate change. There is a powerful objection to such "population engineering" proposals: even if drastic fertility reductions are needed to prevent dangerous climate change, implementing those reductions would wreak havoc on the global economy, which would seriously undermine international antipoverty efforts. In this article, we articulate this economic objection to population engineering and show how it fails. We argue, first, that the economic objection paints an inaccurate picture of the complicated relationship between demographic change and economic growth, and second, that any untoward economic effects of fertility reduction can be mitigated with additional policies. Specifically, we argue that supplementing fertility reduction with policies that facilitate the emigration of younger people from developing nations to developed nations could allow for both global reductions in GHG emissions and continued economic stability. Further, we show that moral arguments against such unprecedented increases in immigration are unsuccessful. We conclude that population engineering is a practical and morally justifiable tool for addressing the twin evils of climate change and global poverty. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impacts of climate change on rainfall extremes and urban drainage systems: a review.

PubMed

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K; Willems, P; Olsson, J; Beecham, S; Pathirana, A; Bülow Gregersen, I; Madsen, H; Nguyen, V-T-V

2013-01-01

A review is made of current methods for assessing future changes in urban rainfall extremes and their effects on urban drainage systems, due to anthropogenic-induced climate change. The review concludes that in spite of significant advances there are still many limitations in our understanding of how to describe precipitation patterns in a changing climate in order to design and operate urban drainage infrastructure. Climate change may well be the driver that ensures that changes in urban drainage paradigms are identified and suitable solutions implemented. Design and optimization of urban drainage infrastructure considering climate change impacts and co-optimizing these with other objectives will become ever more important to keep our cities habitable into the future.

Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.

PubMed

Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man

2010-09-01

This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

Multi-criteria objective based climate change impact assessment for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, Ruben; Schütze, Niels

2014-05-01

Water resources systems with reservoirs are expected to be sensitive to climate change. Assessment studies that analyze the impact of climate change on the performance of reservoirs can be divided in two groups: (1) Studies that simulate the operation under projected inflows with the current set of operational rules. Due to non adapted operational rules the future performance of these reservoirs can be underestimated and the impact overestimated. (2) Studies that optimize the operational rules for best adaption of the system to the projected conditions before the assessment of the impact. The latter allows for estimating more realistically future performance and adaption strategies based on new operation rules are available if required. Multi-purpose reservoirs serve various, often conflicting functions. If all functions cannot be served simultaneously at a maximum level, an effective compromise between multiple objectives of the reservoir operation has to be provided. Yet under climate change the historically preferenced compromise may no longer be the most suitable compromise in the future. Therefore a multi-objective based climate change impact assessment approach for multi-purpose multi-reservoir systems is proposed in the study. Projected inflows are provided in a first step using a physically based rainfall-runoff model. In a second step, a time series model is applied to generate long-term inflow time series. Finally, the long-term inflow series are used as driving variables for a simulation-based multi-objective optimization of the reservoir system in order to derive optimal operation rules. As a result, the adapted Pareto-optimal set of diverse best compromise solutions can be presented to the decision maker in order to assist him in assessing climate change adaption measures with respect to the future performance of the multi-purpose reservoir system. The approach is tested on a multi-purpose multi-reservoir system in a mountainous catchment in Germany. A climate change assessment is performed for climate change scenarios based on the SRES emission scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 for a set of statistically downscaled meteorological data. The future performance of the multi-purpose multi-reservoir system is quantified and possible intensifications of trade-offs between management goals or reservoir utilizations are shown.

A multistage decision support framework to guide tree species management under climate change via habitat suitability and colonization models, and a knowledge-based scoring system

Treesearch

Anantha M. Prasad; Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Matthew P. Peters

2016-01-01

Context. No single model can capture the complex species range dynamics under changing climates--hence the need for a combination approach that addresses management concerns. Objective. A multistage approach is illustrated to manage forested landscapes under climate change. We combine a tree species habitat model--DISTRIB II, a species colonization model--SHIFT, and...

Geoengineering as a design problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kravitz, Ben; MacMartin, Douglas G.; Wang, Hailong

2016-01-01

Understanding the climate impacts of solar geoengineering is essential for evaluating its benefits and risks. Most previous simulations have prescribed a particular strategy and evaluated its modeled effects. Here we turn this approach around by first choosing example climate objectives and then designing a strategy to meet those objectives in climate models. There are four essential criteria for designing a strategy: (i) an explicit specification of the objectives, (ii) defining what climate forcing agents to modify so the objectives are met, (iii) a method for managing uncertainties, and (iv) independent verification of the strategy in an evaluation model. We demonstrate this design perspective throughmore » two multi-objective examples. First, changes in Arctic temperature and the position of tropical precipitation due to CO 2 increases are offset by adjusting high-latitude insolation in each hemisphere independently. Second, three different latitude-dependent patterns of insolation are modified to offset CO 2-induced changes in global mean temperature, interhemispheric temperature asymmetry, and the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient. In both examples, the "design" and "evaluation" models are state-of-the-art fully coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models.« less

Climate Change Adaptation: Putting Principles into Practice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausden, Malcolm

2014-10-01

Carrying out wildlife conservation in a changing climate requires planning on long timescales at both a site and network level, while also having the flexibility to adapt actions at sites over short timescales in response to changing conditions and new information. The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), a land-owning wildlife conservation charity in the UK, achieves this on its nature reserves through its system of management planning. This involves setting network-wide objectives which inform the 25-year vision and 5-year conservation objectives for each site. Progress toward achieving each site's conservation objectives is reviewed annually, to identify any adjustments which might be needed to the site's management. The conservation objectives and 25-year vision of each site are reviewed every 5 years. Significant long-term impacts of climate change most frequently identified at RSPB reserves are: loss of intertidal habitat through coastal squeeze, loss of low-lying islands due to higher sea levels and coastal erosion, loss of coastal freshwater and brackish wetlands due to increased coastal flooding, and changes in the hydrology of wetlands. The main types of adaptation measures in place on RSPB reserves to address climate change-related impacts are: re-creation of intertidal habitat, re-creation and restoration of freshwater wetlands away from vulnerable coastal areas, blocking artificial drainage on peatlands, and addressing pressures on freshwater supply for lowland wet grasslands in eastern and southeastern England. Developing partnerships between organizations has been crucial in delivering large-scale adaptation projects.

Climate change/variability science and adaptive strategies for state and regional transportation decision making.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-04-01

The objective of this study was to generate a baseline understanding of current policy responses to climate : change/variability at the state and regional transportation-planning and -decision levels. Specifically, : researchers were interested in th...

Beyond Individual Behaviour Change: The Role of Power, Knowledge and Strategy in Tackling Climate Change

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kenis, Anneleen; Mathijs, Erik

2012-01-01

Individual behaviour change is fast becoming a kind of "holy grail" to tackle climate change, in environmental policy, the environmental movement and academic literature. This is contested by those who claim that social structures are the main problem and who advocate collective social action. The objective of the research presented in…

Effect of climate change on Australian rural and remote regions: what do we know and what do we need to know?

PubMed

Bi, Peng; Parton, Kevin A

2008-02-01

This paper addresses a very important issue in Australian rural and remote regions: the effects of climate change on various aspects including natural resources, agricultural activity, population health, and social and economic development. The objective is to briefly characterise the consequences of climate change in rural Australia and what we can do to prevent further impact in our rural communities.

Useful to Usable (U2U): Transforming Climate Variability and Change Information for Cereal Crop Producers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niyogi, D.; Andresen, J.

2011-12-01

Corn and soybean production contributes over $100 billion annually to the U.S. economy, most of which comes from the intensely cultivated corn-belt region of the Midwest. Successful crop production in this region is highly dependent on favorable temperatures and appropriate precipitation patters, making this industry vulnerable to changes in climate patterns. Though predictive models are constantly improving, there are gaps in our understanding of how different management practices can be used to help farmers adapt to changes in climate while maintaining economic viability. Furthermore, currently available tools and models are not meeting producers' needs, and little is known about the types of information they would like to access. Useful to Usable (U2U): Transforming Climate Variability and Change Information for Cereal Crop Producers is an integrated research and extension project that seeks to improve the resilience and profitability of farms in the North Central Region amid variable climate change through the development and dissemination of improved decision support tools, resource materials, and training. The goal is to work closely with producers to help them make better long-term plans on what, when and where to plant, and also how to manage crops for maximum yields and minimum environmental damage. The U2U team is composed of a uniquely qualified group of climatologists, crop modelers, agronomists, economists, and social scientists from 10 partner universities across the Midwest. Over the span of 5 years, collaborators will complete tasks associated with 5 objectives that will enhance the usability of climate information for the agricultural community and lead to more sustainable farming operations. First the team will produce research on the biophysical and economic impacts of different climate scenarios on corn and soybean yields in the North Central Region (objective 1) and conduct complementary research to understand how producers and advisors are likely to use this information (objective 2). Based on these findings, decision support tools (DSTs) and training materials will be developed to effectively deliver climate information to stakeholders (objective 3). Next, DSTs will be piloted in a four-state region (Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Michigan) to help improve tools and evaluate effectiveness (objective 4). After several iterations with stakeholders to ensure the usability and utility of the tools, the program will be extended to all twelve states in the region (objective 5). Decision support tools, along with training products, surveys, feedback mechanisms and collaborative social tools, will be supported using the NSF-funded and Purdue University developed HUBzero web-based technology.

Assessing the Agricultural Vulnerability for India under Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, Tarul; Vardhan Murari, Harsha; Karmakar, Subhankar; Ghosh, Subimal; Singh, Jitendra

2016-04-01

Global climate change has proven to show majorly negative impacts for the far future. These negative impacts adversely affect almost all the fields including agriculture, water resources, tourism, and marine ecosystem. Among these, the effects on agriculture are considered to be of prime importance since its regional impacts can directly affect the global food security. Under such lines, it becomes essential to understand how climate change directs agricultural production for a region along with its vulnerability. In India, rice and wheat are considered as major staple diet and hence understanding its production loss/gain due to regional vulnerability to climate change becomes necessary. Here, an attempt has been made to understand the agricultural vulnerability for rice and wheat, considering yield as a function of temperature and precipitation during growing period. In order to accomplish this objective, the ratio of actual to potential evapo-transpiration has been considered which serves as a reliable indicator; with more this ratio towards unity, less vulnerable will be the region. The current objective needs an integration of climatic, hydrological and agricultural parameters; that can be achieved by simulating a climate data driven hydrologic (Variable Infiltration Capacity, VIC) model and a crop (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer, DSSAT) model. The proposed framework is an attempt to derive a crop vulnerability map that can facilitate in strategizing adaption practices which can reduce the adverse impacts of climate change in future.

Designing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways using Many-Objective Robust Decision Making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kwakkel, Jan; Haasnoot, Marjolijn

2017-04-01

Dealing with climate risks in water management requires confronting a wide variety of deeply uncertain factors, while navigating a many dimensional space of trade-offs amongst objectives. There is an emerging body of literature on supporting this type of decision problem, under the label of decision making under deep uncertainty. Two approaches within this literature are Many-Objective Robust Decision Making, and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. In recent work, these approaches have been compared. One of the main conclusions of this comparison was that they are highly complementary. Many-Objective Robust Decision Making is a model based decision support approach, while Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is primarily a conceptual framework for the design of flexible strategies that can be adapted over time in response to how the future is actually unfolding. In this research we explore this complementarity in more detail. Specifically, we demonstrate how Many-Objective Robust Decision Making can be used to design adaptation pathways. We demonstrate this combined approach using a water management problem, in the Netherlands. The water level of Lake IJselmeer, the main fresh water resource of the Netherlands, is currently managed through discharge by gravity. Due to climate change, this won't be possible in the future, unless water levels are changed. Changing the water level has undesirable flood risk and spatial planning consequences. The challenge is to find promising adaptation pathways that balance objectives related to fresh water supply, flood risk, and spatial issues, while accounting for uncertain climatic and land use change. We conclude that the combination of Many-Objective Robust Decision Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways is particularly suited for dealing with deeply uncertain climate risks.

Incorporating Student Activities into Climate Change Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steele, H.; Kelly, K.; Klein, D.; Cadavid, A. C.

2013-12-01

Under a NASA grant, Mathematical and Geospatial Pathways to Climate Change Education, students at California State University, Northridge integrated Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, satellite data technologies, and climate modelling into the study of global climate change under a Pathway for studying the Mathematics of Climate Change (PMCC). The PMCC, which is an interdisciplinary option within the BS in Applied Mathematical Sciences, consists of courses offered by the departments of Mathematics, Physics, and Geography and is designed to prepare students for careers and Ph.D. programs in technical fields relevant to global climate change. Under this option students are exposed to the science, mathematics, and applications of climate change science through a variety of methods including hands-on experience with computer modeling and image processing software. In the Geography component of the program, ESRI's ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine mapping, spatial analysis and image processing software were used to explore NASA satellite data to examine the earth's atmosphere, hydrosphere and biosphere in areas that are affected by climate change or affect climate. These technology tools were incorporated into climate change and remote sensing courses to enhance students' knowledge and understanding of climate change through hands-on application of image processing techniques to NASA data. Several sets of exercises were developed with specific learning objectives in mind. These were (1) to increase student understanding of climate change and climate change processes; (2) to develop student skills in understanding, downloading and processing satellite data; (3) to teach remote sensing technology and GIS through applications to climate change; (4) to expose students to climate data and methods they can apply to solve real world problems and incorporate in future research projects. In the Math and Physics components of the course, students learned about atmospheric circulation with applications of the Lorenz model, explored the land-sea breeze problem with the Dynamics and Thermodynamics Circulation Model (DTDM), and developed simple radiative transfer models. Class projects explored the effects of varying the content of CO2 and CH4 in the atmosphere, as well as the properties of paleoclimates in atmospheric simulations using EdGCM. Initial assessment of student knowledge, attitudes, and behaviors associated with these activities, particularly about climate change, was measured. Pre- and post-course surveys provided student perspectives about the courses and their learning about remote sensing and climate change concepts. Student performance on the tutorials and course projects evaluated students' ability to learn and apply their knowledge about climate change and skills with remote sensing to assigned problems or proposed projects of their choice. Survey and performance data illustrated that the exercises were successful in meeting their intended learning objectives as well as opportunities for further refinement and expansion.

Correlations between Climate Change and the Modern European Construction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gumińska, Anna

2017-10-01

The aim of the study was to analyze the links between climate change and the way modern cities are structured and responded to climate change. How do these changes affect building materials and technologies, or does climate change affect the type of technology and materials used? The most important results are the effects of analysing selected examples of a modern European building, the use of materials and technology, the adaptation of buildings to the changing climate. Selected examples of contemporary architecture from Germany, Italy and Denmark, Norway and Sweden. There are also examples in photographic documentation. The most important criteria affecting the objects are elements that shape the changing climate, as well as existing legal and technical requirements. The main conclusion was that modern urban space is adapted to the changing climate. Unprecedented climatic phenomena in this area: intense and sudden rain, snow, floods, strong winds, abundant sunshine, high temperature changes, greenhouse effect of the city - “island heat”, atmospheric pollution. Building materials and technologies contribute to the optimal conservation of natural resources, buildings are shaped in such a way as to ensure safety, resilience and environmental protection. However, there is still a need for continuous monitoring of climate change, criteria affecting the design and construction of urban and central facilities. Key words: energy efficiency, renewable energy, climate change, contemporary architecture.

Modeling and Analysis of Global and Regional Climate Change in Relation to Atmospheric Hydrologic Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, Donald R.

2001-01-01

This research was directed to the development and application of global isentropic modeling and analysis capabilities to describe hydrologic processes and energy exchange in the climate system, and discern regional climate change. An additional objective was to investigate the accuracy and theoretical limits of global climate predictability which are imposed by the inherent limitations of simulating trace constituent transport and the hydrologic processes of condensation, precipitation and cloud life cycles.

Uncertainties Associated with Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Human Health: A Case Study for Diarrhea

PubMed Central

Kolstad, Erik W.; Johansson, Kjell Arne

2011-01-01

Background Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. Objectives The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. Methods We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. Results The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8–11% (with SDs of 3–5%) by 2010–2039 and 22–29% (SDs of 9–12%) by 2070–2099. Conclusions Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate–health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health. PMID:20929684

A Lesson on Climate Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, Jim

This cooperative learning activity, for grades 7-12, promotes critical thinking skills within the context of learning about the causes and effects of climate change. Objectives include: (1) understanding factors that reduce greenhouse gases; (2) understanding the role of trees in reducing greenhouse gases; (3) identifying foods that produce…

Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, C.; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. L.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thorburn, P. J.; Rötter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.; Brisson, N.; Basso, B.; Martre, P.; Aggarwal, P. K.; Angulo, C.; Bertuzzi, P.; Biernath, C.; Challinor, A. J.; Doltra, J.; Gayler, S.; Goldberg, R.; Grant, R.; Heng, L.; Hooker, J.; Hunt, L. A.; Ingwersen, J.; Izaurralde, R. C.; Kersebaum, K. C.; Müller, C.; Naresh Kumar, S.; Nendel, C.; O'Leary, G.; Olesen, J. E.; Osborne, T. M.; Palosuo, T.; Priesack, E.; Ripoche, D.; Semenov, M. A.; Shcherbak, I.; Steduto, P.; Stöckle, C.; Stratonovitch, P.; Streck, T.; Supit, I.; Tao, F.; Travasso, M.; Waha, K.; Wallach, D.; White, J. W.; Williams, J. R.; Wolf, J.

2013-09-01

Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models are difficult. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking.

Changes in forest biomass and tree species distribution under climate change in the northeastern United States

Treesearch

Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Frank R. Thompson; Jacob S. Fraser; William D. Dijak

2016-01-01

Context. Forests in the northeastern United States are currently in early- and mid-successional stages recovering from historical land use. Climate change will affect forest distribution and structure and have important implications for biodiversity, carbon dynamics, and human well-being. Objective. We addressed how aboveground biomass (AGB) and...

Climate Change Discourse in Mass Media: Application of Computer-Assisted Content Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kirilenko, Andrei P.; Stepchenkova, Svetlana O.

2012-01-01

Content analysis of mass media publications has become a major scientific method used to analyze public discourse on climate change. We propose a computer-assisted content analysis method to extract prevalent themes and analyze discourse changes over an extended period in an objective and quantifiable manner. The method includes the following: (1)…

Understanding and Projecting Climate and Human Impacts on Terrestrial-Coastal Carbon and Nutrient Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lohrenz, S. E.; Cai, W. J.; Tian, H.; He, R.; Fennel, K.

2017-12-01

Changing climate and land use practices have the potential to dramatically alter coupled hydrologic-biogeochemical processes and associated movement of water, carbon and nutrients through various terrestrial reservoirs into rivers, estuaries, and coastal ocean waters. Consequences of climate- and land use-related changes will be particularly evident in large river basins and their associated coastal outflow regions. Here, we describe a NASA Carbon Monitoring System project that employs an integrated suite of models in conjunction with remotely sensed as well as targeted in situ observations with the objectives of describing processes controlling fluxes on land and their coupling to riverine, estuarine and ocean ecosystems. The nature of our approach, coupling models of terrestrial and ocean ecosystem dynamics and associated carbon processes, allows for assessment of how societal and human-related land use, land use change and forestry and climate-related change affect terrestrial carbon transport as well as export of materials through watersheds to the coastal margins. Our objectives include the following: 1) Provide representation of carbon processes in the terrestrial ecosystem to understand how changes in land use and climatic conditions influence the export of materials to the coastal ocean, 2) Couple the terrestrial exports of carbon, nutrients and freshwater to a coastal biogeochemical model and examine how different climate and land use scenarios influence fluxes across the land-ocean interface, and 3) Project future changes under different scenarios of climate and human impact, and support user needs related to carbon management and other activities (e.g., water quality, hypoxia, ocean acidification). This research is providing information that will contribute to determining an overall carbon balance in North America as well as describing and predicting how human- and climate-related changes impact coastal water quality including possible effects of coastal eutrophication and hypoxia.

A design for a sustained assessment of climate forcings and feedbacks on land use land cover change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loveland, Thomas; Mahmood, Rezaul

2014-01-01

Land use and land cover change (LULCC) significantly influences the climate system. Hence, to prepare the nation for future climate change and variability, a sustained assessment of LULCC and its climatic impacts needs to be undertaken. To address this objective, not only do we need to determine contemporary trends in land use and land cover that affect, or are affected by, weather and climate but also identify sectors and regions that are most affected by weather and climate variability. Moreover, it is critical that we recognize land cover and regions that are most vulnerable to climate change and how end-use practices are adapting to climate change. This paper identifies a series of steps that need to be undertaken to address these key items. In addition, national-scale institutional capabilities are identified and discussed. Included in the discussions are challenges and opportunities for collaboration among these institutions for a sustained assessment.

Rising CO2, Climate Change, and Public Health: Exploring the Links to Plant Biology

PubMed Central

Ziska, Lewis H.; Epstein, Paul R.; Schlesinger, William H.

2009-01-01

Background Although the issue of anthropogenic climate forcing and public health is widely recognized, one fundamental aspect has remained underappreciated: the impact of climatic change on plant biology and the well-being of human systems. Objectives We aimed to critically evaluate the extant and probable links between plant function and human health, drawing on the pertinent literature. Discussion Here we provide a number of critical examples that range over various health concerns related to plant biology and climate change, including aerobiology, contact dermatitis, pharmacology, toxicology, and pesticide use. Conclusions There are a number of clear links among climate change, plant biology, and public health that remain underappreciated by both plant scientists and health care providers. We demonstrate the importance of such links in our understanding of climate change impacts and provide a list of key questions that will help to integrate plant biology into the current paradigm regarding climate change and human health. PMID:19270781

The Role of Social Influences on Pro-Environment Behaviors in the San Diego Region.

PubMed

Estrada, Mica; Schultz, P Wesley; Silva-Send, Nilmini; Boudrias, Michel A

2017-04-01

From a social psychological perspective, addressing the threats of climate change involves not only education, which imparts objective facts upon a passive individual, but also a socializing process. The Tripartite Integration Model of Social Influence (TIMSI) provides a theoretical framework that connects acquiring climate change knowledge with integration into a community, which results in greater engagement in climate friendly behaviors. Survey data were collected from 1000 residents in San Diego County. Measures included (a) knowledge about climate change; (b) self-efficacy, what pro-environmental actions they felt they could do; (c) identity, to what extent they identified as part of a community that is concerned about climate change; (d) values, endorsement of values of the community that is concerned about climate change; and (e) pro-environmental behavior, engagement in conservation behaviors. Results indicated that self-efficacy and values mediated the relationship between knowledge and pro-environmental behavior.

Secondary Climate Change Education in the Pacific Northwest

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

White, P. Troy; Wolf, Kattlyn J.; Johnson-Maynard, Jodi L.; Velez, Jonathan J.; Eigenbrode, Sanford D.

2014-01-01

Climate change (CC) is an important issue students should understand to be productive members of society. The objectives were to evaluate the instruction and teacher perceptions relating to CC in the Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW) secondary (7-12) classes across disciplines. The teacher perceptions, instructional frequency, perceived barriers to…

FEASIBILITY STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NITROGEN IN CAPE COD EMBAYMENTS

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this study is to explore the feasibility of studying potential effects of climate change on impairments resulting from nitrogen loadings in the salt water embayments of Cape Cod. The report includes a recommended plan for studying these impacts, an estimate of t...

Atmospheric Aerosol Properties and Climate Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chin, Mian; Kahn, Ralph A.; Remer, Lorraine A.; Yu, Hongbin; Rind, David; Feingold, Graham; Quinn, Patricia K.; Schwartz, Stephen E.; Streets, David G.; DeCola, Phillip;

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity

PubMed Central

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-01-01

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors’ experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public health There is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change. PMID:27190980

Teaching About Climate Change in Medical Education: An Opportunity.

PubMed

Maxwell, Janie; Blashki, Grant

2016-04-26

Climate change threatens many of the gains in development and health over the last century. However, it could also be a catalyst for a necessary societal transformation to a sustainable and healthy future. Doctors have a crucial role in climate change mitigation and health system adaptation to prepare for emergent health threats and a carbon-constrained future. This paper argues that climate change should be integrated into medical education for three reasons: first, to prepare students for clinical practice in a climate-changing world; secondly, to promote public health and eco-health literacy; and finally, to deepen existing learning and strengthen graduate attributes. This paper builds on existing literature and the authors' experience to outline potential learning objectives, teaching methods and assessment tasks. In the wake of recent progress at the United Nations climate change conference, COP-21, it is hoped that this paper will assist universities to integrate teaching about climate change into medical education. Significance for public healthThere is a strong case for teaching about climate change in medical education. Anthropogenic climate change is accepted by scientists, governments and health authorities internationally. Given the dire implications for human health, climate change is of fundamental relevance to future doctors. Integrating climate change into medical education offers an opportunity for future doctors to develop skills and insights essential for clinical practice and a public health role in a climate-changing world. This echoes a broader call for improved public health literacy among medical graduates. This paper provides medical schools with a rationale and an outline for teaching on climate change.

How Well Do COP22 Attendees Understand Graphs on Climate Change Health Impacts from the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report?

PubMed

Fischer, Helen; Schütte, Stefanie; Depoux, Anneliese; Amelung, Dorothee; Sauerborn, Rainer

2018-04-27

Graphs are prevalent in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), often depicting key points and major results. However, the popularity of graphs in the IPCC reports contrasts with a neglect of empirical tests of their understandability. Here we put the understandability of three graphs taken from the Health chapter of the Fifth Assessment Report to an empirical test. We present a pilot study where we evaluate objective understanding (mean accuracy in multiple-choice questions) and subjective understanding (self-assessed confidence in accuracy) in a sample of attendees of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Marrakesh, 2016 (COP22), and a student sample. Results show a mean objective understanding of M = 0.33 for the COP sample, and M = 0.38 for the student sample. Subjective and objective understanding were unrelated for the COP22 sample, but associated for the student sample. These results suggest that (i) understandability of the IPCC health chapter graphs is insufficient, and that (ii) particularly COP22 attendees lacked insight into which graphs they did, and which they did not understand. Implications for the construction of graphs to communicate health impacts of climate change to decision-makers are discussed.

Climate change education in informal settings: Using boundary objects to frame network dissemination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steiner, Mary Ann

This study of climate change education dissemination takes place in the context of a larger project where institutions in four cities worked together to develop a linked set of informal learning experiences about climate change. Each city developed an organizational network to explore new ways to connect urban audiences with climate change education. The four city-specific networks shared tools, resources, and knowledge with each other. The networks were related in mission and goals, but were structured and functioned differently depending on the city context. This study illustrates how the tools, resources, and knowledge developed in one network were shared with networks in two additional cities. Boundary crossing theory frames the study to describe the role of objects and processes in sharing between networks. Findings suggest that the goals, capacity and composition of networks resulted in a different emphasis in dissemination efforts, in one case to push the approach out to partners for their own work and in the other to pull partners into a more collaborative stance. Learning experiences developed in each city as a result of the dissemination reflected these differences in the city-specific emphasis with the push city diving into messy examples of the approach to make their own examples, and the pull city offering polished experiences to partners in order to build confidence in the climate change messaging. The networks themselves underwent different kinds of growth and change as a result of dissemination. The emphasis on push and use of messy examples resulted in active use of the principles of the approach and the pull emphasis with polished examples resulted in the cultivation of partnerships with the hub and the potential to engage in the educational approach. These findings have implications for boundary object theory as a useful grounding for dissemination designs in the context of networks of informal learning organizations to support a shift in communication approach, particularly when developing interventions for wicked socio-scientific issues such as climate change.

CERES-Maize model-based simulation of climate change impacts on maize yields and potential adaptive measures in Heilongjiang Province, China.

PubMed

Lin, Yumei; Wu, Wenxiang; Ge, Quansheng

2015-11-01

Climate change would cause negative impacts on future agricultural production and food security. Adaptive measures should be taken to mitigate the adverse effects. The objectives of this study were to simulate the potential effects of climate change on maize yields in Heilongjiang Province and to evaluate two selected typical household-level autonomous adaptive measures (cultivar changes and planting time adjustments) for mitigating the risks of climate change based on the CERES-Maize model. The results showed that flowering duration and maturity duration of maize would be shortened in the future climate and thus maize yield would reduce by 11-46% during 2011-2099 relative to 1981-2010. Increased CO2 concentration would not benefit maize production significantly. However, substituting local cultivars with later-maturing ones and delaying the planting date could increase yields as the climate changes. The results provide insight regarding the likely impacts of climate change on maize yields and the efficacy of selected adaptive measures by presenting evidence-based implications and mitigation strategies for the potential negative impacts of future climate change. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate Change: A Review of Its Health Impact and Percieved Awareness by the Young Citizens

PubMed Central

Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

2014-01-01

In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University’s students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. PMID:24999143

Climate change: a review of its health impact and perceived awareness by the young citizens.

PubMed

Rahman, Muhammad Sabbir; Mohamad, Osman Bin; Zarim, Zainal bin Abu

2014-04-16

In recent time climate change and its impact on human health and awareness constitute a set of complex and serious consequences to be tackled by an individual country. Climate change is not merely an environmental issue, but also it is a threat that goes beyond national borders. The purpose of this study is to identify the awareness and the impact of climate change, perceived by the young citizens in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences. Based on a survey of 200 respondents from different public and private University's students in Malaysia, this research used descriptive statistics and T-test to look into the research objective. The results revealed media can play an important role in the awareness of climate change. Meanwhile the male respondents have shown considerable attention on the physical impact of climate change like heat related stress. On the other hand female respondents have shown considerable attention to the psychological impact by the climate change. From a pragmatic perspective, the findings from this research will assists the policy makers to understand more about the perceived awareness on the climate change issues of the young citizens which ultimately assist them to inaugurate new initiatives to confront the challenges of climate changes. This research is among the pioneer study on the issue of the perceived awareness in regards to climate change in Malaysia by focusing on gender differences.

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reyer, Christopher P. O.; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G.; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P.; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Guerra Hernández, Juan; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João HN; Paulo, Joana A.; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-03-01

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

PubMed Central

Reyer, Christopher P O; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Hernández, Juan Guerra; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João HN; Paulo, Joana A; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-01-01

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures. PMID:28855959

Are forest disturbances amplifying or canceling out climate change-induced productivity changes in European forests?

PubMed

Reyer, Christopher P O; Bathgate, Stephen; Blennow, Kristina; Borges, Jose G; Bugmann, Harald; Delzon, Sylvain; Faias, Sonia P; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Gardiner, Barry; Gonzalez-Olabarria, Jose Ramon; Gracia, Carlos; Hernández, Juan Guerra; Kellomäki, Seppo; Kramer, Koen; Lexer, Manfred J; Lindner, Marcus; van der Maaten, Ernst; Maroschek, Michael; Muys, Bart; Nicoll, Bruce; Palahi, Marc; Palma, João Hn; Paulo, Joana A; Peltola, Heli; Pukkala, Timo; Rammer, Werner; Ray, Duncan; Sabaté, Santiago; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Seidl, Rupert; Temperli, Christian; Tomé, Margarida; Yousefpour, Rasoul; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-03-16

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures.

Predicted changes in climatic niche and climate refugia of conservation priority salamander species in the northeastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutton, William B.; Barrett, Kyle; Moody, Allison T.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; deMaynadier, Phillip G.; Nanjappa, Priya

2015-01-01

Global climate change represents one of the most extensive and pervasive threats to wildlife populations. Amphibians, specifically salamanders, are particularly susceptible to the effects of changing climates due to their restrictive physiological requirements and low vagility; however, little is known about which landscapes and species are vulnerable to climate change. Our study objectives included, (1) evaluating species-specific predictions (based on 2050 climate projections) and vulnerabilities to climate change and (2) using collective species responses to identify areas of climate refugia for conservation priority salamanders in the northeastern United States. All evaluated salamander species were projected to lose a portion of their climatic niche. Averaged projected losses ranged from 3%–100% for individual species, with the Cow Knob Salamander (Plethodon punctatus), Cheat Mountain Salamander (Plethodon nettingi), Shenandoah Mountain Salamander (Plethodon virginia), Mabee’s Salamander (Ambystoma mabeei), and Streamside Salamander (Ambystoma barbouri) predicted to lose at least 97% of their landscape-scale climatic niche. The Western Allegheny Plateau was predicted to lose the greatest salamander climate refugia richness (i.e., number of species with a climatically-suitable niche in a landscape patch), whereas the Central Appalachians provided refugia for the greatest number of species during current and projected climate scenarios. Our results can be used to identify species and landscapes that are likely to be further affected by climate change and potentially resilient habitats that will provide consistent climatic conditions in the face of environmental change.

Spatially Representing Vulnerability to Extreme Rain Events Using Midwestern Farmers' Objective and Perceived Attributes of Adaptive Capacity.

PubMed

Gardezi, Maaz; Arbuckle, J Gordon

2017-11-29

Potential climate-change-related impacts to agriculture in the upper Midwest pose serious economic and ecological risks to the U.S. and the global economy. On a local level, farmers are at the forefront of responding to the impacts of climate change. Hence, it is important to understand how farmers and their farm operations may be more or less vulnerable to changes in the climate. A vulnerability index is a tool commonly used by researchers and practitioners to represent the geographical distribution of vulnerability in response to global change. Most vulnerability assessments measure objective adaptive capacity using secondary data collected by governmental agencies. However, other scholarship on human behavior has noted that sociocultural and cognitive factors, such as risk perceptions and perceived capacity, are consequential for modulating people's actual vulnerability. Thus, traditional assessments can potentially overlook people's subjective perceptions of changes in climate and extreme weather events and the extent to which people feel prepared to take necessary steps to cope with and respond to the negative effects of climate change. This article addresses this knowledge gap by: (1) incorporating perceived adaptive capacity into a vulnerability assessment; (2) using spatial smoothing to aggregate individual-level vulnerabilities to the county level; and (3) evaluating the relationships among different dimensions of adaptive capacity to examine whether perceived capacity should be integrated into vulnerability assessments. The result suggests that vulnerability assessments that rely only on objective measures might miss important sociocognitive dimensions of capacity. Vulnerability indices and maps presented in this article can inform engagement strategies for improving environmental sustainability in the region. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Climate change over Leh (Ladakh), India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Thayyen, R. J.

2018-01-01

Mountains over the world are considered as the indicators of climate change. The Himalayas are comprised of five ranges, viz., Pir Panjal, Great Himalayas, Zanskar, Ladhak, and Karakorum. The Ladakh region lies in the northernmost state of India, Jammu and Kashmir, in the Ladhak range. It has a unique cold-arid climate and lies immediately south of the Karakorum range. With scarce water resources, such regions show high sensitivity and vulnerability to the change in climate and need urgent attention. The objective of this study is to understand the climate of the Ladakh region and to characterize its changing climate. Using different temperature and precipitation datasets over Leh and surrounding regions, we statistically analyze the current trends of climatic patterns over the region. The study shows that the climate over Leh shows a warming trend with reduced precipitation in the current decade. The reduced average seasonal precipitation might also be associated with some indications of reducing number of days with higher precipitation amounts over the region.

Science and the governance of Australia's climate regime

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keenan, Rodney J.; Caripis, Lisa; Foerster, Anita; Godden, Lee; Peel, Jacqueline

2012-07-01

The promise of a scientifically sound policy approach to tackle greenhouse-gas emissions in Australia gives hope that the country's efforts to mitigate climate change can make an effective contribution to international objectives.

The Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hemer, Mark; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Erikson, Li; Lionello, Piero; Mori, Nobuhito; Semedo, Alvaro; Wang, Xiaolan

2016-04-01

Future 21st Century changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for marine and coastal infrastructure and ecosystems. Atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing and providing future projections of climatological parameters such as temperature and precipitation, but generally these provide no information on ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap a growing number of studies are using GCM outputs and independently producing global and regional scale wind-wave climate projections. Furthermore, additional studies are actively coupling wind-wave dependent atmosphere-ocean exchanges into GCMs, to improve physical representation and quantify the impact of waves in the coupled climate system, and can also deliver wave characteristics as another variable in the climate system. To consolidate these efforts, understand the sources of variance between projections generated by different methodologies and International groups, and ultimately provide a robust picture of the role of wind-waves in the climate system and their projected changes, we present outcomes of the JCOMM supported Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP). The objective of COWCLIP is twofold: to make community based ensembles of wave climate projections openly accessible, to provide the necessary information to support diligent marine and coastal impacts of climate change studies; and to understand the effects and feedback influences of wind-waves in the coupled ocean-atmosphere climate system. We will present the current status of COWCLIP, providing an overview of the objectives, analysis and results of the initial phase - now complete - and the progress of ongoing phases of the project.

Cropping and tillage systems effects on soil erosion under climate change in Oklahoma

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil erosion under future climate change is very likely to increase due to projected increases in frequency and magnitude of heavy storms. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of common cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion and surface runoff during 2010-2039 in central Okl...

Uncertainty in Simulating Wheat Yields Under Climate Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asseng, S.; Ewert, F.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Jones, J. W.; Hatfield, J. W.; Ruane, A. C.; Boote, K. J.; Thornburn, P. J.; Rotter, R. P.; Cammarano, D.;

Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation strategies of local communities in Malawi: experiences of women fish-processing groups in the Lake Chilwa Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jørstad, Hanne; Webersik, Christian

2016-12-01

In recent years, research on climate change and human security has received much attention among policy makers and academia alike. Communities in the Global South that rely on an intact resource base and struggle with poverty, existing inequalities and historical injustices will especially be affected by predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. The objective of this article is to better understand under what conditions local communities can adapt to anticipated impacts of climate change. The empirical part of the paper answers the question as to what extent local women engaged in fish processing in the Chilwa Basin in Malawi have experienced climate change and how they are affected by it. The article assesses an adaptation project designed to make those women more resilient to a warmer and more variable climate. The research results show that marketing and improving fish processing as strategies to adapt to climate change have their limitations. The study concludes that livelihood diversification can be a more effective strategy for Malawian women to adapt to a more variable and unpredictable climate rather than exclusively relying on a resource base that is threatened by climate change.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

PubMed

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes

PubMed Central

Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C.; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

2015-01-01

There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18–20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts. PMID:26177097

75 FR 54403 - U.S. National Climate Assessment Objectives, Proposed Topics, and Next Steps

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-07

..., methods and design, tools for assessing climate change and impacts, dealing with uncertainty, sources of..., coordination with other Federal climate-related programs, design of documents and tailored communications with... methodological perspectives related to selecting model and downscaling outputs and approaches for their use in...

Climate variability and nitrogen rate interactions affecting corn nitrogen use efficiency in Alabama

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Nitrogen (N) fertilization is an important practice to increase yield; however, plant–soil interactions to in-season changes in climatic conditions result on site-specific responses of corn to nitrogen rates. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of different climatic conditions and...

Modeling the Evolution of Riparian Woodlands Facing Climate Change in Three European Rivers with Contrasting Flow Regimes

PubMed Central

Rivaes, Rui P.; Rodríguez-González, Patricia M.; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Pinheiro, António N.; Politti, Emilio; Egger, Gregory; García-Arias, Alicia; Francés, Felix

2014-01-01

Global circulation models forecasts indicate a future temperature and rainfall pattern modification worldwide. Such phenomena will become particularly evident in Europe where climate modifications could be more severe than the average change at the global level. As such, river flow regimes are expected to change, with resultant impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Riparian woodlands are among the most endangered ecosystems on earth and provide vital services to interconnected ecosystems and human societies. However, they have not been the object of many studies designed to spatially and temporally quantify how these ecosystems will react to climate change-induced flow regimes. Our goal was to assess the effects of climate-changed flow regimes on the existing riparian vegetation of three different European flow regimes. Cases studies were selected in the light of the most common watershed alimentation modes occurring across European regions, with the objective of appraising expected alterations in the riparian elements of fluvial systems due to climate change. Riparian vegetation modeling was performed using the CASiMiR-vegetation model, which bases its computation on the fluvial disturbance of the riparian patch mosaic. Modeling results show that riparian woodlands may undergo not only at least moderate changes for all flow regimes, but also some dramatic adjustments in specific areas of particular vegetation development stages. There are circumstances in which complete annihilation is feasible. Pluvial flow regimes, like the ones in southern European rivers, are those likely to experience more pronounced changes. Furthermore, regardless of the flow regime, younger and more water-dependent individuals are expected to be the most affected by climate change. PMID:25330151

Multi-objective optimization for evaluation of simulation fidelity for precipitation, cloudiness and insolation in regional climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, H.

2016-12-01

Precipitation is one of the most important climate variables that are taken into account in studying regional climate. Nevertheless, how precipitation will respond to a changing climate and even its mean state in the current climate are not well represented in regional climate models (RCMs). Hence, comprehensive and mathematically rigorous methodologies to evaluate precipitation and related variables in multiple RCMs are required. The main objective of the current study is to evaluate the joint variability of climate variables related to model performance in simulating precipitation and condense multiple evaluation metrics into a single summary score. We use multi-objective optimization, a mathematical process that provides a set of optimal tradeoff solutions based on a range of evaluation metrics, to characterize the joint representation of precipitation, cloudiness and insolation in RCMs participating in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) and Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-North America (CORDEX-NA). We also leverage ground observations, NASA satellite data and the Regional Climate Model Evaluation System (RCMES). Overall, the quantitative comparison of joint probability density functions between the three variables indicates that performance of each model differs markedly between sub-regions and also shows strong seasonal dependence. Because of the large variability across the models, it is important to evaluate models systematically and make future projections using only models showing relatively good performance. Our results indicate that the optimized multi-model ensemble always shows better performance than the arithmetic ensemble mean and may guide reliable future projections.

Comparing approaches for using climate projections in assessing water resources investments for systems with multiple stakeholder groups

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurford, Anthony; Harou, Julien

2015-04-01

Climate change has challenged conventional methods of planning water resources infrastructure investment, relying on stationarity of time-series data. It is not clear how to best use projections of future climatic conditions. Many-objective simulation-optimisation and trade-off analysis using evolutionary algorithms has been proposed as an approach to addressing complex planning problems with multiple conflicting objectives. The search for promising assets and policies can be carried out across a range of climate projections, to identify the configurations of infrastructure investment shown by model simulation to be robust under diverse future conditions. Climate projections can be used in different ways within a simulation model to represent the range of possible future conditions and understand how optimal investments vary according to the different hydrological conditions. We compare two approaches, optimising over an ensemble of different 20-year flow and PET timeseries projections, and separately for individual future scenarios built synthetically from the original ensemble. Comparing trade-off curves and surfaces generated by the two approaches helps understand the limits and benefits of optimising under different sets of conditions. The comparison is made for the Tana Basin in Kenya, where climate change combined with multiple conflicting objectives of water management and infrastructure investment mean decision-making is particularly challenging.

Implications of climate change mitigation for sustainable development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Michael; Steckel, Jan Christoph

2016-10-01

Evaluating the trade-offs between the risks related to climate change, climate change mitigation as well as co-benefits requires an integrated scenarios approach to sustainable development. We outline a conceptual multi-objective framework to assess climate policies that takes into account climate impacts, mitigation costs, water and food availability, technological risks of nuclear energy and carbon capture and sequestration as well as co-benefits of reducing local air pollution and increasing energy security. This framework is then employed as an example to different climate change mitigation scenarios generated with integrated assessment models. Even though some scenarios encompass considerable challenges for sustainability, no scenario performs better or worse than others in all dimensions, pointing to trade-offs between different dimensions of sustainable development. For this reason, we argue that these trade-offs need to be evaluated in a process of public deliberation that includes all relevant social actors.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weldu, Yemane W., E-mail: ywweldem@ucalgary.ca; Assefa, Getachew; Athena Chair in Life Cycle Assessment in Design

A roadmap for a more sustainable energy strategy is complex, as its development interacts critically with the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainable development. This paper applied an impact matrix method to evaluate the environmental sustainability and to identify the desirable policy objectives of biomass-based energy strategy for the case of Alberta. A matrix with the sustainability domains on one axis and areas of environmental impact on the other was presented to evaluate the nexus effect of policy objectives and bioenergy production. As per to our analysis, economic diversification, technological innovation, and resource conservation came up as the desirablemore » policy objectives of sustainable development for Alberta because they demonstrated environmental benefits in all environmental impact categories, namely climate change, human health, and ecosystem. On the other hand, human health and ecosystem impacts were identified as trade-offs when the policy objectives for sustainability were energy security, job creation, and climate change. Thus, bioenergy can mitigate climate change but may impact human health and ecosystem which then in turn can become issues of concern. Energy strategies may result in shifting of risks from one environmental impact category to another, and from one sustainable domain to another if the technical and policy-related issues are not identified.« less

Climate change, human health, and biomedical research: analysis of the National Institutes of Health research portfolio.

PubMed

Jessup, Christine M; Balbus, John M; Christian, Carole; Haque, Ehsanul; Howe, Sally E; Newton, Sheila A; Reid, Britt C; Roberts, Luci; Wilhelm, Erin; Rosenthal, Joshua P

2013-04-01

According to a wide variety of analyses and projections, the potential effects of global climate change on human health are large and diverse. The U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH), through its basic, clinical, and population research portfolio of grants, has been increasing efforts to understand how the complex interrelationships among humans, ecosystems, climate, climate variability, and climate change affect domestic and global health. In this commentary we present a systematic review and categorization of the fiscal year (FY) 2008 NIH climate and health research portfolio. A list of candidate climate and health projects funded from FY 2008 budget appropriations were identified and characterized based on their relevance to climate change and health and based on climate pathway, health impact, study type, and objective. This analysis identified seven FY 2008 projects focused on climate change, 85 climate-related projects, and 706 projects that focused on disease areas associated with climate change but did not study those associations. Of the nearly 53,000 awards that NIH made in 2008, approximately 0.17% focused on or were related to climate. Given the nature and scale of the potential effects of climate change on human health and the degree of uncertainty that we have about these effects, we think that it is helpful for the NIH to engage in open discussions with science and policy communities about government-wide needs and opportunities in climate and health, and about how NIH's strengths in human health research can contribute to understanding the health implications of global climate change. This internal review has been used to inform more recent initiatives by the NIH in climate and health.

Public Health Nurses’ Knowledge and Attitudes Regarding Climate Change

PubMed Central

Chaudry, Rosemary V.; Mac Crawford, John

2011-01-01

Background: Climate change affects human health, and health departments are urged to act to reduce the severity of these impacts. Yet little is known about the perspective of public health nurses—the largest component of the public health workforce—regarding their roles in addressing health impacts of climate change. Objectives: We determined the knowledge and attitudes of public health nurses concerning climate change and the role of public health nursing in divisions of health departments in addressing health-related impacts of climate change. Differences by demographic subgroups were explored. Methods: An online survey was distributed to nursing directors of U.S. health departments (n = 786) with Internet staff directories. Results: Respondents (n = 176) were primarily female, white public health nursing administrators with ≥ 5 years of experience. Approximately equal percentages of respondents self-identified as having moderate, conservative, and liberal political views. Most agreed that the earth has experienced climate change and that climate change is somewhat controllable. Respondents identified an average of 5 of the 12 listed health-related impacts of climate change, but the modal response was zero impact. Public health nursing was perceived as having responsibility to address health-related impacts of climate change but lacking the ability to address these impacts. Conclusions: Public health nurses view the environment as under threat and see a role for nursing divisions in addressing health effects of climate change. However, they recognize the limited resources and personnel available to devote to this endeavor. PMID:22128069

Managing United States public lands in response to climate change: a view from the ground up.

PubMed

Ellenwood, Mikaela S; Dilling, Lisa; Milford, Jana B

2012-05-01

Federal land managers are faced with the task of balancing multiple uses and goals when making decisions about land use and the activities that occur on public lands. Though climate change is now well recognized by federal agencies and their local land and resource managers, it is not yet clear how issues related to climate change will be incorporated into on-the-ground decision making within the framework of multiple use objectives. We conducted a case study of a federal land management agency field office, the San Juan Public Lands Center in Durango, CO, U.S.A., to understand from their perspective how decisions are currently made, and how climate change and carbon management are being factored into decision making. We evaluated three major management sectors in which climate change or carbon management may intersect other use goals: forests, biofuels, and grazing. While land managers are aware of climate change and eager to understand more about how it might affect land resources, the incorporation of climate change considerations into everyday decision making is currently quite limited. Climate change is therefore on the radar screen, but remains a lower priority than other issues. To assist the office in making decisions that are based on sound scientific information, further research is needed into how management activities influence carbon storage and resilience of the landscape under climate change.

Climate and Population Health Vulnerabilities to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience Under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceccato, P.; McDonald, K. C.; Podest, E.; De La Torre Juarez, M.; Kruczkiewicz, A.; Lessel, J.; Jensen, K.; Thomson, M. C.

2014-12-01

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases (i.e. malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities, ministries of health and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above.

Science Organizations Remind Senators of Consensus on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chell, Kaitlin

2009-11-01

AGU and 17 other scientific organizations sent an open letter to the U.S. Senate on 21 October reminding senators of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change. The letter was sent 1 week before the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works began a series of hearings on climate change legislation, the Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act (Senate bill 1733). The letter states, “Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. These conclusions are based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science.”

Trends in Reports on Climate Change in 2009-2011 in the Korean Press Based on Daily Newspapers' Ownership Structure

PubMed Central

Lee, Jihye; Kim, Hyunsook; Hong, Youngtak; Lee, Weonyoung

2013-01-01

Objectives The mass media play a crucial role in risk communication regarding climate change. The aim of this study was to investigate the trend in journalistic reports on climate change in the daily newspapers of Korea. Methods We selected 9 daily newspapers in Korea, which according to the ABC Association, represented 77% of newspaper circulation, out of a total of 44 Korean daily newspapers. The collected articles were from 2009 to 2011. All of the articles were sorted into the following 8 categories: greenhouse gas, climate change conventions, sea level rise, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change synthesis reports, expected damage and effect, use of fossil fuels, global warming, and mitigation or adaptation. A chi-squared test was done on the articles, which were counted and classified into cause, effect, and measurement of climate change according to the newspaper's majority or minority ownership structure. Results From the 9 selected newspapers, the number of articles on climate change by month was greatest in December 2009. Generally, the articles vague about climate change (lack of precise data, negative or skeptical tone, and improper use of terminology) were much more common than the articles presenting accurate knowledge. A statistical difference was found based on ownership structure: the majority-owned newspapers addressed the cause of climate change, while the minority-owned newspapers referred more to climate change measurement. Conclusions Our investigation revealed that generally Korean daily newspapers did not deliver accurate information about climate change. The coverage of the newspapers showed significant differences according to the ownership structure. PMID:23573375

Parenthood and Worrying About Climate Change: The Limitations of Previous Approaches.

PubMed

Ekholm, Sara; Olofsson, Anna

2017-02-01

The present study considers the correlation between parenthood and worry about the consequences of climate change. Two approaches to gauging people's perceptions of the risks of climate change are compared: the classic approach, which measures risk perception, and the emotion-based approach, which measures feelings toward a risk object. The empirical material is based on a questionnaire-based survey of 3,529 people in Sweden, of whom 1,376 answered, giving a response rate of 39%. The results show that the correlation of parenthood and climate risk is significant when the emotional aspect is raised, but not when respondents were asked to do cognitive estimates of risk. Parenthood proves significant in all three questions that measure feelings, demonstrating that it is a determinant that serves to increase worry about climate change. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Mitigation/adaptation and health: health policymaking in the global response to climate change and implications for other upstream determinants.

PubMed

Wiley, Lindsay F

2010-01-01

The time is ripe for innovation in global health governance if we are to achieve global health and development objectives in the face of formidable challenges. Integration of global health concerns into the law and governance of other, related disciplines should be given high priority. This article explores opportunities for health policymaking in the global response to climate change. Climate change and environmental degradation will affect weather disasters, food and water security, infectious disease patterns, and air pollution. Although scientific research has pointed to the interdependence of the global environment and human health, policymakers have been slow to integrate their approaches to environmental and health concerns. A robust response to climate change will require improved integration on two fronts: health concerns must be given higher priority in the response to climate change and threats associated with climate change and environmental degradation must be more adequately addressed by global health law and governance. The mitigation/adaptation response paradigm developing within and beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change provides a useful framework for thinking about global health law and governance with respect to climate change, environmental degradation, and possibly other upstream determinants of health as well. © 2010 American Society of Law, Medicine & Ethics, Inc.

The New APS Topical Group on the Physics of Climate: History, Objectives and Panel Discussion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brasseur, James; Behringer, Robert

2013-03-01

The GPC Chair will introduce the new APS Topical Group on the Physics of Climate (GPC), describe its history and objectives, and introduce the current GPC leadership before opening the floor to a panel discussion. The GPC resulted from two petitions that emerged from the controversy that followed the APS Statement on Climate Change (see APS website). The two proposals were merged and an organization committee formed by the APS leadership. After a long organizational period in 2011, the GPC bylaws were finalized with the following key objective: The objective of the GPC shall be to promote the advancement and diffusion of knowledge concerning the physics, measurement, and modeling of climate processes, within the domain of natural science and outside the domains of societal impact and policy, legislation and broader societal issues. The objective includes the integration of scientific knowledge and analysis methods across disciplines to address the dynamical complexities and uncertainties of climate physics. The GPC Invited and Focus Sessions at this March meeting are the inaugural GPC events. The Program Committee Chair will moderate a panel between the attending GPC leadership and audience to solicit suggestions for potential future GPC events that advance the GPC objectives.

Simulating soil organic carbon responses to cropping intensity, tillage, and climate change in Pacific Northwest dryland

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Managing dryland cropping systems to increase soil organic C (SOC) under changing climate is challenging after decades of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)-fallow and moldboard plow tillage (W-F/MP). The objective was to use CQESTR, a process-based C model, and SOC data collected in 2004, 2008, an...

Climate Change to the Year 2000: A Survey of Expert Opinion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Institute for the Future, Menlo Park, CA.

This survey of expert opinion was conducted by the National Defense University, Washington, D.C. to quantify the likelihood of significant changes in climate and their practical consequences. The major objectives of the study are embodied in four tasks. This publication presents the results of the first task only: the definition and estimation of…

Effects of cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion under climate change in Oklahoma

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil erosion under future climate change is very likely to increase due to projected increases in frequency and magnitude of heavy storms. The objective of this study is to quantify the effects of common cropping and tillage systems on soil erosion and surface runoff during 2010-2039 in central Okl...

Projecting trends in agronomic, economic, and environmental performance of Canadian dairy farms under future climate conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Climate change is expected to increase agricultural productivity in Canada as in many northern areas in the world. This will likely come along with changes in the environmental and economic performance of dairy farms, one of the most important agricultural sectors in Canada. The objective of this s...

Techniques of remote sensing and GIS as tools for visualizing impact of climate change-induced flood in the southern African region.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

This study employs remote sensing and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) data to visualize the impact of climate change caused by flooding in the Southern African region in order to assist decision makers’ plans for future occurrences. In pursuit of this objective, this study uses Digital Elevat...

Closing the "Hole in the Sky": The Use of Refutation-Oriented Instruction to Correct Students' Climate Change Misconceptions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chang, Chew-Hung; Pascua, Liberty; Ess, Frances

2018-01-01

This article discusses the implementation of a pedagogical tool aimed at the refutation of secondary school (grade ten-equivalent) students' persistent climate change misconceptions. Using a lesson study approach, the materials and intervention techniques used were developed collaboratively with geography teachers. The objective is two-pronged: to…

Modern nature and climate changes in Siberia: new methods and results of analysis of instrumented observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabanov, Mikhail V.

2002-02-01

Peculiarity of nature and climate changes in middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and in Siberia is that the temporal variability of meteorological quantities here has a wide range and their spatial variability has a complicated zone structure. Therefore, regional monitoring of modern nature and climate changes in Siberia is of scientific interest from the viewpoint of the global changes observed. Another Siberian peculiarity is associated with the fact that there are many unique objects that have global importance both as natural complexes (boreal forests, water- bog systems, Baikal lake, etc.) And as technogenic objects (oil and gas production, coal mining, metallurgy, transport, etc.). Therefore monitoring and modeling of regional nature and climate changes in Siberia have great practical importance, which is underestimated now, for industrial development of Siberia. Taking into account the above peculiarities and tendencies on investigation of global and regional environmental and climate changes, the multidisciplinary project on Climate and Ecological Monitoring of Siberia (CEMS) was accepted to the research and development program Sibir' since 1993. To realize this project, the Climate and Ecological Observatory was established in Tomsk at the Institute for Optical Monitoring (IOM) SB RAS. At the present time the stations (the basic and background ones) of this observatory are in a progress and theory and instruments for monitoring are being developed as well. In this paper we discuss some results obtained in the framework of CEMS project that were partially published in the monographs, in scientific journals, and will be published in the Proceedings of the 8th Joint International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics and Atmosphere Physics. This review has a purpose not only to discuss the obtained regularities but also to formulate scientific and technical tasks for further investigations into the regional changes of technogenic, natural, and climate systems.

Climate change and nutrition: creating a climate for nutrition security.

PubMed

Tirado, M C; Crahay, P; Mahy, L; Zanev, C; Neira, M; Msangi, S; Brown, R; Scaramella, C; Costa Coitinho, D; Müller, A

2013-12-01

Climate change further exacerbates the enormous existing burden of undernutrition. It affects food and nutrition security and undermines current efforts to reduce hunger and promote nutrition. Undernutrition in turn undermines climate resilience and the coping strategies of vulnerable populations. The objectives of this paper are to identify and undertake a cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the existing mechanisms, strategies, and policies to address them. A cross-sectoral analysis of the impacts of climate change on nutrition security and the mechanisms and policies to address them was guided by an analytical framework focused on the three 'underlying causes' of undernutrition: 1) household food access, 2) maternal and child care and feeding practices, 3) environmental health and health access. The analytical framework includes the interactions of the three underlying causes of undernutrition with climate change,vulnerability, adaptation and mitigation. Within broad efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation and climate-resilient development, a combination of nutrition-sensitive adaptation and mitigation measures, climate-resilient and nutrition-sensitive agricultural development, social protection, improved maternal and child care and health, nutrition-sensitive risk reduction and management, community development measures, nutrition-smart investments, increased policy coherence, and institutional and cross-sectoral collaboration are proposed as a means to address the impacts of climate change to food and nutrition security. This paper proposes policy directions to address nutrition in the climate change agenda and recommendations for consideration by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Nutrition and health stakeholders need to be engaged in key climate change adaptation and mitigation initiatives, including science-based assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and policies and actions formulated by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Improved multi-sectoral coordination and political will is required to integrate nutrition-sensitive actions into climate-resilient sustainable development efforts in the UNFCCC work and in the post 2015 development agenda. Placing human rights at the center of strategies to mitigate and adapt to the impacts of climate change and international solidarity is essential to advance sustainable development and to create a climate for nutrition security.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-11-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth's climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (-10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems.

Detection of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change. Progress report, July 1, 1994--July 31, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, P.D.; Wigley, T.M.L.

1995-07-21

The objective of this research is to assembly and analyze instrumental climate data and to develop and apply climate models as a basis for detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change, and validation of General Circulation Models. In addition to changes due to variations in anthropogenic forcing, including greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes, the global climate system exhibits a high degree of internally-generated and externally-forced natural variability. To detect the anthropogenic effect, its signal must be isolated from the ``noise`` of this natural climatic variability. A high quality, spatially extensive data base is required to define the noise and its spatial characteristics.more » To facilitate this, available land and marine data bases will be updated and expanded. The data will be analyzed to determine the potential effects on climate of greenhouse gas and aerosol concentration changes and other factors. Analyses will be guided by a variety of models, from simple energy balance climate models to coupled atmosphere ocean General Circulation Models. These analyses are oriented towards obtaining early evidence of anthropogenic climatic change that would lead either to confirmation, rejection or modification of model projections, and towards the statistical validation of General Circulation Model control runs and perturbation experiments.« less

Environmental Health Indicators of Climate Change for the United States: Findings from the State Environmental Health Indicator Collaborative

PubMed Central

English, Paul B.; Sinclair, Amber H.; Ross, Zev; Anderson, Henry; Boothe, Vicki; Davis, Christine; Ebi, Kristie; Kagey, Betsy; Malecki, Kristen; Shultz, Rebecca; Simms, Erin

2009-01-01

Objective To develop public health adaptation strategies and to project the impacts of climate change on human health, indicators of vulnerability and preparedness along with accurate surveillance data on climate-sensitive health outcomes are needed. We researched and developed environmental health indicators for inputs into human health vulnerability assessments for climate change and to propose public health preventative actions. Data sources We conducted a review of the scientific literature to identify outcomes and actions that were related to climate change. Data sources included governmental and nongovernmental agencies and the published literature. Data extraction Sources were identified and assessed for completeness, usability, and accuracy. Priority was then given to identifying longitudinal data sets that were applicable at the state and community level. Data synthesis We present a list of surveillance indicators for practitioners and policy makers that include climate-sensitive health outcomes and environmental and vulnerability indicators, as well as mitigation, adaptation, and policy indicators of climate change. Conclusions A review of environmental health indicators for climate change shows that data exist for many of these measures, but more evaluation of their sensitivity and usefulness is needed. Further attention is necessary to increase data quality and availability and to develop new surveillance databases, especially for climate-sensitive morbidity. PMID:20049116

Climate Change, Tropospheric Ozone and Particulate Matter, and Health Impacts

PubMed Central

Ebi, Kristie L.; McGregor, Glenn

2008-01-01

Objective Because the state of the atmosphere determines the development, transport, dispersion, and deposition of air pollutants, there is concern that climate change could affect morbidity and mortality associated with elevated concentrations of these gases and fine particles. We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health. Data sources We review studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and studies projecting the impacts of these changes on morbidity and mortality. Data synthesis Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty include the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given these uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, which would increase morbidity and mortality. Few projections are available for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, primarily because few studies have been conducted. Conclusions Additional research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution–related health impacts. If improved models continue to project higher ozone concentrations with climate change, then reducing greenhouse gas emissions would enhance the health of current and future generations. PMID:19057695

Integrating climate change into the state wildlife action plans: Biological responses to climate impacts with a focus on Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morelli, Toni Lyn; DeLuca, William; Ellison, Colton; Jane, Stephen F.; Matthews, Stephen

2015-01-01

This chapter reviews the responses to climate change on the 367 Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) identified by the Northeast Fish and Wildlife Diversity Technical Committee (NEFWDTC), technical experts from states’ natural resource agencies (Appendix 3.1). These species were chosen based on their conservation status, listing in SWAPs, and the percentage of their range that occurs in the Northeast. The objectives of this chapter are to: summarize how regional biodiversity has already responded and is expected to respond to climate change; summarize information on specific RSGCN species responses to climate change to date and anticipated under future scenarios; characterize the greatest uncertainties about how biodiversity and RSGCN species will respond to climate change in the future; and highlight where other factors are expected to exacerbate the effects of climate change. This information was obtained through a systematic review of the peer-reviewed literature, primarily using the ISI Web of Knowledge to search for papers on each species related to “climate”, “temperature”, or “precipitation”. Although we undoubtedly missed some sources, the following allows us to review some of the ways climate change will affect regional species of conservation concern

Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

PubMed Central

Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

2014-01-01

Background Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to consider climate change and its impact on human health. Approaches to include health aspects of climate change within sectoral and climate change specific policies should be encouraged, via a number of mechanisms, such as the Health in All Policies approach. Future research could support the Fiji health sector in developing climate change and health programmes. PMID:24836442

Landscape fragmentation affects responses of avian communities to climate change.

PubMed

Jarzyna, Marta A; Porter, William F; Maurer, Brian A; Zuckerberg, Benjamin; Finley, Andrew O

2015-08-01

Forecasting the consequences of climate change is contingent upon our understanding of the relationship between biodiversity patterns and climatic variability. While the impacts of climate change on individual species have been well-documented, there is a paucity of studies on climate-mediated changes in community dynamics. Our objectives were to investigate the relationship between temporal turnover in avian biodiversity and changes in climatic conditions and to assess the role of landscape fragmentation in affecting this relationship. We hypothesized that community turnover would be highest in regions experiencing the most pronounced changes in climate and that these patterns would be reduced in human-dominated landscapes. To test this hypothesis, we quantified temporal turnover in avian communities over a 20-year period using data from the New York State Breeding Atlases collected during 1980-1985 and 2000-2005. We applied Bayesian spatially varying intercept models to evaluate the relationship between temporal turnover and temporal trends in climatic conditions and landscape fragmentation. We found that models including interaction terms between climate change and landscape fragmentation were superior to models without the interaction terms, suggesting that the relationship between avian community turnover and changes in climatic conditions was affected by the level of landscape fragmentation. Specifically, we found weaker associations between temporal turnover and climatic change in regions with prevalent habitat fragmentation. We suggest that avian communities in fragmented landscapes are more robust to climate change than communities found in contiguous habitats because they are comprised of species with wider thermal niches and thus are less susceptible to shifts in climatic variability. We conclude that highly fragmented regions are likely to undergo less pronounced changes in composition and structure of faunal communities as a result of climate change, whereas those changes are likely to be greater in contiguous and unfragmented habitats. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Preliminary study of climate adaptation for the statewide transportation system in Arizona.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-03-01

This research study presents recommendations for the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) : to continue working toward being more resilient, flexible, and responsive to the effects of global : climate change. The main objectives were to identi...

Climate and Health Vulnerability to Vector-Borne Diseases: Increasing Resilience under Climate Change Conditions in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceccato, P.

2015-12-01

The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), the City University of New York (CUNY) and NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) in collaboration with NASA SERVIR are developing tools to monitor climate variables (precipitation, temperature, vegetation, water bodies, inundation) that help projects in Africa to increase resilience to climate change for vector-borne diseases ( malaria, trypanosomiasis, leishmaniasis, and schistosomiasis). Through the development of new products to monitor precipitation, water bodies and inundation, IRI, CUNY and JPL provide tools and capacity building to research communities; ministries of health; the WMO Global Framework for Climate and Services; and World Health Organization in Africa to: 1) Develop research teams' ability to appropriately use climate data as part of their research 2) Enable research teams and ministries to integrate climate information into social and economic drivers of vulnerability and opportunities for adaptation to climate change 3) Inform better policies and programs for climate change adaptation. This oral presentation will demonstrate how IRI, CUNY, and JPL developed new products, tools and capacity building to achieve the three objectives mentioned above with examples in South Africa, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and Malawi.

SEEPLUS: A SIMPLE ONLINE CLIMATE MODEL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsutsui, Junichi

A web application for a simple climate model - SEEPLUS (a Simple climate model to Examine Emission Pathways Leading to Updated Scenarios) - has been developed. SEEPLUS consists of carbon-cycle and climate-change modules, through which it provides the information infrastructure required to perform climate-change experiments, even on a millennial-timescale. The main objective of this application is to share the latest scientific knowledge acquired from climate modeling studies among the different stakeholders involved in climate-change issues. Both the carbon-cycle and climate-change modules employ impulse response functions (IRFs) for their key processes, thereby enabling the model to integrate the outcome from an ensemble of complex climate models. The current IRF parameters and forcing manipulation are basically consistent with, or within an uncertainty range of, the understanding of certain key aspects such as the equivalent climate sensitivity and ocean CO2 uptake data documented in representative literature. The carbon-cycle module enables inverse calculation to determine the emission pathway required in order to attain a given concentration pathway, thereby providing a flexible way to compare the module with more advanced modeling studies. The module also enables analytical evaluation of its equilibrium states, thereby facilitating the long-term planning of global warming mitigation.

Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011-60

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Uma Shankar; Aijun Xiu; K. Talgo; D. Yang; Ernest Dixon; Donald McKenzie; Karen L. Abt

2016-01-01

Future changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the south-eastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect wildfire in the coming decades.We estimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (...

Adjusting skewness and maximum 0.5 hour intensity in CLIGEN to improve extreme event and sub-daily intensity generation for assessing climate change impacts

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Both measured data and GCM/RCM projections show an general increasing trend in extreme rainfall events as temperature rises in US. Proper simulation of extreme events is particularly important for assessing climate change impacts on soil erosion and hydrology. The objective of this paper is to fin...

Natural areas as a basis for assessing ecosystem vulnerability to climate change

Treesearch

Margaret H. Massie; Todd M. Wilson; Anita T. Morzillo; Emilie B. Henderson

2016-01-01

There are more than 580 natural areas in Oregon and Washington managed by 20 federal, state, local, and private agencies and organizations. This natural areas network is unparalleled in its representation of the diverse ecosystems found in the Pacific Northwest, and could prove useful for monitoring long-term ecological responses to climate change. Our objectives were...

Approaches to evaluating climate change impacts on species: A guide to initiating the adaptation planning process

Treesearch

Erika L. Rowland; Jennifer E. Davison; Lisa J. Graumlich

2011-01-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating...

A survey of urban climate change experiments in 100 cities

PubMed Central

Castán Broto, Vanesa; Bulkeley, Harriet

2013-01-01

Cities are key sites where climate change is being addressed. Previous research has largely overlooked the multiplicity of climate change responses emerging outside formal contexts of decision-making and led by actors other than municipal governments. Moreover, existing research has largely focused on case studies of climate change mitigation in developed economies. The objective of this paper is to uncover the heterogeneous mix of actors, settings, governance arrangements and technologies involved in the governance of climate change in cities in different parts of the world. The paper focuses on urban climate change governance as a process of experimentation. Climate change experiments are presented here as interventions to try out new ideas and methods in the context of future uncertainties. They serve to understand how interventions work in practice, in new contexts where they are thought of as innovative. To study experimentation, the paper presents evidence from the analysis of a database of 627 urban climate change experiments in a sample of 100 global cities. The analysis suggests that, since 2005, experimentation is a feature of urban responses to climate change across different world regions and multiple sectors. Although experimentation does not appear to be related to particular kinds of urban economic and social conditions, some of its core features are visible. For example, experimentation tends to focus on energy. Also, both social and technical forms of experimentation are visible, but technical experimentation is more common in urban infrastructure systems. While municipal governments have a critical role in climate change experimentation, they often act alongside other actors and in a variety of forms of partnership. These findings point at experimentation as a key tool to open up new political spaces for governing climate change in the city. PMID:23805029

Variation in Estimated Ozone-Related Health Impacts of Climate Change due to Modeling Choices and Assumptions

PubMed Central

Post, Ellen S.; Grambsch, Anne; Weaver, Chris; Morefield, Philip; Leung, Lai-Yung; Nolte, Christopher G.; Adams, Peter; Liang, Xin-Zhong; Zhu, Jin-Hong; Mahoney, Hardee

2012-01-01

Background: Future climate change may cause air quality degradation via climate-induced changes in meteorology, atmospheric chemistry, and emissions into the air. Few studies have explicitly modeled the potential relationships between climate change, air quality, and human health, and fewer still have investigated the sensitivity of estimates to the underlying modeling choices. Objectives: Our goal was to assess the sensitivity of estimated ozone-related human health impacts of climate change to key modeling choices. Methods: Our analysis included seven modeling systems in which a climate change model is linked to an air quality model, five population projections, and multiple concentration–response functions. Using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), we estimated future ozone (O3)-related health effects in the United States attributable to simulated climate change between the years 2000 and approximately 2050, given each combination of modeling choices. Health effects and concentration–response functions were chosen to match those used in the U.S. EPA’s 2008 Regulatory Impact Analysis of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3. Results: Different combinations of methodological choices produced a range of estimates of national O3-related mortality from roughly 600 deaths avoided as a result of climate change to 2,500 deaths attributable to climate change (although the large majority produced increases in mortality). The choice of the climate change and the air quality model reflected the greatest source of uncertainty, with the other modeling choices having lesser but still substantial effects. Conclusions: Our results highlight the need to use an ensemble approach, instead of relying on any one set of modeling choices, to assess the potential risks associated with O3-related human health effects resulting from climate change. PMID:22796531

Influence of three common calibration metrics on the diagnosis of climate change impacts on water resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seiller, G.; Roy, R.; Anctil, F.

2017-04-01

Uncertainties associated to the evaluation of the impacts of climate change on water resources are broad, from multiple sources, and lead to diagnoses sometimes difficult to interpret. Quantification of these uncertainties is a key element to yield confidence in the analyses and to provide water managers with valuable information. This work specifically evaluates the influence of hydrological modeling calibration metrics on future water resources projections, on thirty-seven watersheds in the Province of Québec, Canada. Twelve lumped hydrologic models, representing a wide range of operational options, are calibrated with three common objective functions derived from the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The hydrologic models are forced with climate simulations corresponding to two RCP, twenty-nine GCM from CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) and two post-treatment techniques, leading to future projections in the 2041-2070 period. Results show that the diagnosis of the impacts of climate change on water resources are quite affected by the hydrologic models selection and calibration metrics. Indeed, for the four selected hydrological indicators, dedicated to water management, parameters from the three objective functions can provide different interpretations in terms of absolute and relative changes, as well as projected changes direction and climatic ensemble consensus. The GR4J model and a multimodel approach offer the best modeling options, based on calibration performance and robustness. Overall, these results illustrate the need to provide water managers with detailed information on relative changes analysis, but also absolute change values, especially for hydrological indicators acting as security policy thresholds.

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program

PubMed Central

Shin, Yong Seung

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities. PMID:23256088

Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

PubMed

Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

2012-01-01

Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities.

Framework for Probabilistic Projections of Energy-Relevant Streamflow Indicators under Climate Change Scenarios for the U.S.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wagener, Thorsten; Mann, Michael; Crane, Robert

2014-04-29

This project focuses on uncertainty in streamflow forecasting under climate change conditions. The objective is to develop easy to use methodologies that can be applied across a range of river basins to estimate changes in water availability for realistic projections of climate change. There are three major components to the project: Empirical downscaling of regional climate change projections from a range of Global Climate Models; Developing a methodology to use present day information on the climate controls on the parameterizations in streamflow models to adjust the parameterizations under future climate conditions (a trading-space-for-time approach); and Demonstrating a bottom-up approach tomore » establishing streamflow vulnerabilities to climate change. The results reinforce the need for downscaling of climate data for regional applications, and further demonstrates the challenges of using raw GCM data to make local projections. In addition, it reinforces the need to make projections across a range of global climate models. The project demonstrates the potential for improving streamflow forecasts by using model parameters that are adjusted for future climate conditions, but suggests that even with improved streamflow models and reduced climate uncertainty through the use of downscaled data, there is still large uncertainty is the streamflow projections. The most useful output from the project is the bottom-up vulnerability driven approach to examining possible climate and land use change impacts on streamflow. Here, we demonstrate an inexpensive and easy to apply methodology that uses Classification and Regression Trees (CART) to define the climate and environmental parameters space that can produce vulnerabilities in the system, and then feeds in the downscaled projections to determine the probability top transitioning to a vulnerable sate. Vulnerabilities, in this case, are defined by the end user.« less

The place of drama in science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oreskes, N.; Lewandowsky, S.

2016-12-01

Title: The place of drama in scienceAbstract: Many climate scientists have been reluctant to speak strongly about climate change for fear of being viewed as alarmist or dramatic. Equating drama with bias and lack of objectivity, some consider that there is "no place for drama in science." Many scientists strive to present their findings in an undramatic manner that will not provoke a strong response in the reader. Several studies have demonstrated that climate scientists have tended to under-estimate and under-state the threat of climate change—what has been labelled "Erring on the Side of Least Drama" (ESLD) (Brysse et al., 2012). ESLD is a bias in science, one that leads us to under-predict outcomes and under-state threats. Downplaying alarming results in order to avoid provoking emotion in others is not objective. Under-predicting the severity of climate change can also be interpreted as an optimistic bias: it suggests that things are not as bad as they might be. A related phenomenon is when climate scientists and researchers in allied disciplines have expressed considerable optimism about unproven `breakthrough' technologies, such as carbon dioxide removal from the atmosphere, and their capacity to yield the net negative emissions that will likely be required to keep global temperature increases within the window agreed at Paris." The changes unfolding in the climate system are already significant, and threaten to become truly dramatic. What is our responsibility in this situation? Scientists should move neither toward nor away from drama, optimism or pessimism, but rather toward full and objective articulation of the entire range of scientific findings. Scientists should encourage the public and policy makers to mitigate the climate crisis, and to this end some optimism may be a legitimate motivating tool, but only insofar as it is evidence-based. Unless we find a way to satisfy those twin requirements, our legacy may be that we failed adequately to warn society of what was about to unfold and what action was required.

Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: a case study of the Soan River basin, Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahid, Muhammad; Cong, Zhentao; Zhang, Danwu

2017-09-01

Climate change and land use change are the two main factors that can alter the catchment hydrological process. The objective of this study is to evaluate the relative contribution of climate change and land use change to runoff change of the Soan River basin. The Mann-Kendal and the Pettit tests are used to find out the trends and change point in hydroclimatic variables during the period 1983-2012. Two different approaches including the abcd hydrological model and the Budyko framework are then used to quantify the impact of climate change and land use change on streamflow. The results from both methods are consistent and show that annual runoff has significantly decreased with a change point around 1997. The decrease in precipitation and increases in potential evapotranspiration contribute 68% of the detected change while the rest of the detected change is due to land use change. The land use change acquired from Landsat shows that during post-change period, the agriculture has increased in the Soan basin, which is in line with the positive contribution of land use change to runoff decrease. This study concludes that aforementioned methods performed well in quantifying the relative contribution of land use change and climate change to runoff change.

Studies of Climate Change in the Yukon River Basin: Connecting Community and Science Through a Unique Partnership

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schuster, Paul F.; Maracle, Karonhiakta'tie Byran

2010-01-01

An exciting new partnership between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Yukon River Inter-Tribal Watershed Council (YRITWC) is yielding critical data for the assessment of climate change effects in the Yukon River Basin. The foundation of this partnership is a shared interest in the current and future water quality of the Yukon River and its relation to climate. The USGS began a landmark study of the Yukon River and its major tributaries in 2000. A key objective of this study is to establish a baseline dataset of water quality, which will serve as an important frame of reference to assess future changes in the basin that may result from a warmer climate.

Investigating Downscaling Methods and Evaluating Climate Models for Use in Estimating Regional Water Resources in Mountainous Regions under Changing Climatic Conditions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frei, Allan; Nolin, Anne W.; Serreze, Mark C.; Armstrong, Richard L.; McGinnis, David L.; Robinson, David A.

2004-01-01

The purpose of this three-year study is to develop and evaluate techniques to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of climate change in mountainous areas. Three main objectives are set out in the proposal. (1) To develop and evaluate transfer functions to link tropospheric circulation to regional snowfall. (2) To evaluate a suite of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for use in estimating synoptic scale circulation and the resultant regional snowfall. And (3) to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of changing climate in the two case study areas: the Upper Colorado River basin, and the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York State. Both regions provide water to large populations.

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

Stakeholders’ perspectives towards effective climate change adaptation on the Mongolian livestock sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Batbaatar, A.; Apichayakul, P.; Tantanee, S.

2018-03-01

Climate change is one of the greatest threats that world is facing today, and having significant deleterious effects on natural and human systems. Recent climate-induced extreme events and their impacts demand timely adaptation actions to the changing odds of their occurrence. The great phenomenon is already being felt in the Mongolian plateau, especially on the livestock sector. The sector provides the main income and livelihood for one-third of the population of about three million people. A high number of livestock is lost due to a unique phenomenon is known as a “dzud”. This paper examines the key stakeholders’ perspectives in the implementation of climate change adaptation and identifies its barriers, with a focus on the livestock sector. In order to meet the objectives, this research used a semi-structured interview with organizations related to the livestock sector and climate change. The extent of stakeholders’ perspectives might be depending on the way they share information, stakeholder engagement, and their experiences with extreme events, as well as their location and level in government. The research findings will indicate an understanding of climate change perspectives, adaptation, and level of capacity of organizations, which can be used as a guideline for organizations to develop climate change adaptation policies related to the livestock sector in Mongolia.

Project Summary (2012-2015) – Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hinkle, Ross; Benscoter, Brian; Comas, Xavier

2015-04-07

Carbon Dynamics of the Greater Everglades Watershed and Implications of Climate Change The objectives of this project are to: 1) quantify above- and below-ground carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems along a seasonal hydrologic gradient in the headwaters region of the Greater Everglades watershed; 2) develop budgets of ecosystem gaseous carbon exchange (carbon dioxide and methane) across the seasonal hydrologic gradient; 3) assess the impact of climate drivers on ecosystem carbon exchange in the Greater Everglades headwater region; and 4) integrate research findings with climate-driven terrestrial ecosystem carbon models to examine the potential influence of projected future climate change on regionalmore » carbon cycling. Note: this project receives a one-year extension past the original performance period - David Sumner (USGS) is not included in this extension.« less

Establishing a Real-Money Prediction Market for Climate on Decadal Horizons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roulston, M. S.; Hand, D. J.; Harding, D. W.

2016-12-01

A plan to establish a not-for-profit prediction market that will allow participants to bet on the value of selected climate variables decades into the future will be presented. It is hoped that this market will provide an objective measure of the consensus view on climate change, including information concerning the uncertainty of climate projections. The proposed design of the market and the definition of the climate variables underlying the contracts will be discussed, as well as relevant regulatory and legal issues.

Global Climate Change: Three Policy Perspectives

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-26

example, the EPA spent approximately $2 billion supporting development of a feasible flue gas desulfurization (FGD) device for electric utility use to...Framework Convention on Climate Change, the United States committed to the objective of achieving “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in...the United States would convene a meeting of the world’s “major economies” that are responsible for most greenhouse gas emissions. Held in September

Climate Connections in Virginia: Your Actions Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffman, J. S.; Maurakis, E. G.

2016-12-01

Our project objectives are to educate the general public about the science of climate change on global and local scales, highlight current and potential future impacts of climate change on Virginia and its communities, define community climate resiliency and why it is important, illustrate how individuals can contribute to the resiliency of their own community by taking personal steps to be prepared for weather events and health threats related to climate change, and, foster a conversion of climate change awareness and understanding into personal action to increase readiness and resiliency in homes, schools, and communities. The communication methods used to convey climate change and resiliency information are: development of new programming for the museum's NOAA Science on a Sphere® and digital Dome theater, production of a statewide digital media series (24 audio and 12 video content pieces/year), engagement with social media platforms, a public lecture series, facilitation of resiliency-themed programming (Art Lab, Challenge Lab, EcoLab), establishment of extreme event readiness challenge workshops, and enacting community preparedness and resiliency checklist and certification programs. A front-end evaluation was conducted to survey general audience understanding of the difference between climate and weather, climate change impacts, and resilience. We seek here to share some initial content and reflection based on the first few months of this project. Funded by NOAA Award NA15SEC0080009 and the Virginia Environmental Endowment.

The Role of Health in Climate Litigation

PubMed Central

Simmens, Samuel J.; Glicksman, Robert; Paddock, LeRoy; Kim, Daniel; Whited, Brittany

2018-01-01

Objectives. To examine how the courts, which play a critical role in shaping public policy, consider public health in climate change and coal-fired power plant lawsuits. Methods. We coded US local, state, and federal court decisions relating to climate change and coal-fired power plants from 1990 to 2016 (n = 873) and qualitatively investigated 139 cases in which litigants raised issues concerning the health impacts of climate change. We also conducted 78 interviews with key litigants, advocates, industry representatives, advising scientists, and legal experts. Results. Health has been a critical consideration in key climate lawsuits, but in a minority of cases. Litigants have presented health arguments most frequently and effectively in terms of airborne exposures. Health impacts have typically been used to gain standing and argue that the evidence for government actions is insufficient. Conclusions. The courts represent a pivotal branch of government in shaping climate policy. Increasing inclusion of health concerns in emergent areas of litigation could help drive more effective climate policymaking. PMID:29698089

Future climate data from RCP 4.5 and occurrence of malaria in Korea.

PubMed

Kwak, Jaewon; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Soojun; Singh, Vijay P; Hong, Seung Jin; Kim, Duckgil; Lee, Keonhaeng; Kang, Narae; Kim, Hung Soo

2014-10-15

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001-2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future.

Future Climate Data from RCP 4.5 and Occurrence of Malaria in Korea

PubMed Central

Kwak, Jaewon; Noh, Huiseong; Kim, Soojun; Singh, Vijay P.; Hong, Seung Jin; Kim, Duckgil; Lee, Keonhaeng; Kang, Narae; Kim, Hung Soo

2014-01-01

Since its reappearance at the Military Demarcation Line in 1993, malaria has been occurring annually in Korea. Malaria is regarded as a third grade nationally notifiable disease susceptible to climate change. The objective of this study is to quantify the effect of climatic factors on the occurrence of malaria in Korea and construct a malaria occurrence model for predicting the future trend of malaria under the influence of climate change. Using data from 2001–2011, the effect of time lag between malaria occurrence and mean temperature, relative humidity and total precipitation was investigated using spectral analysis. Also, a principal component regression model was constructed, considering multicollinearity. Future climate data, generated from RCP 4.5 climate change scenario and CNCM3 climate model, was applied to the constructed regression model to simulate future malaria occurrence and analyze the trend of occurrence. Results show an increase in the occurrence of malaria and the shortening of annual time of occurrence in the future. PMID:25321875

The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare

PubMed Central

Shields, Sara; Orme-Evans, Geoffrey

2015-01-01

Simple Summary Climate change is probably the most important environmental issue of our time. Raising animals for food contributes to the production of greenhouse gases implicated in the global warming that is causing climate change. To combat this ecological disaster, a number of mitigation strategies involving changes to agricultural practices have been proposed. However, some of these changes will impact the welfare of farmed animals. This paper reviews selected climate change mitigation strategies and explains how different approaches could have negative or positive effects. Abstract The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture. PMID:26479240

Adaptation of Land-Use Demands to the Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Processes of an Urbanized Watershed

PubMed Central

Lin, Yu-Pin; Hong, Nien-Ming; Chiang, Li-Chi; Liu, Yen-Lan; Chu, Hone-Jay

2012-01-01

The adaptation of land-use patterns is an essential aspect of minimizing the inevitable impact of climate change at regional and local scales; for example, adapting watershed land-use patterns to mitigate the impact of climate change on a region’s hydrology. The objective of this study is to simulate and assess a region’s ability to adapt to hydrological changes by modifying land-use patterns in the Wu-Du watershed in northern Taiwan. A hydrological GWLF (Generalized Watershed Loading Functions) model is used to simulate three hydrological components, namely, runoff, groundwater and streamflow, based on various land-use scenarios under six global climate models. The land-use allocations are simulated by the CLUE-s model for the various development scenarios. The simulation results show that runoff and streamflow are strongly related to the precipitation levels predicted by different global climate models for the wet and dry seasons, but groundwater cycles are more related to land-use. The effects of climate change on groundwater and runoff can be mitigated by modifying current land-use patterns; and slowing the rate of urbanization would also reduce the impact of climate change on hydrological components. Thus, land-use adaptation on a local/regional scale provides an alternative way to reduce the impacts of global climate change on local hydrology. PMID:23202833

WRF Test on IBM BG/L:Toward High Performance Application to Regional Climate Research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, H S

The effects of climate change will mostly be felt on local to regional scales (Solomon et al., 2007). To develop better forecast skill in regional climate change, an integrated multi-scale modeling capability (i.e., a pair of global and regional climate models) becomes crucially important in understanding and preparing for the impacts of climate change on the temporal and spatial scales that are critical to California's and nation's future environmental quality and economical prosperity. Accurate knowledge of detailed local impact on the water management system from climate change requires a resolution of 1km or so. To this end, a high performancemore » computing platform at the petascale appears to be an essential tool in providing such local scale information to formulate high quality adaptation strategies for local and regional climate change. As a key component of this modeling system at LLNL, the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is implemented and tested on the IBM BG/L machine. The objective of this study is to examine the scaling feature of WRF on BG/L for the optimal performance, and to assess the numerical accuracy of WRF solution on BG/L.« less

The Roles of Dispersal, Fecundity, and Predation in the Population Persistence of an Oak (Quercus engelmannii) under Global Change

PubMed Central

Conlisk, Erin; Lawson, Dawn; Syphard, Alexandra D.; Franklin, Janet; Flint, Lorraine; Flint, Alan; Regan, Helen M.

2012-01-01

A species’ response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species’ ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species - Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors – climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency – emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations. PMID:22623955

The future demographic niche of a declining grassland bird fails to shift poleward in response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCauley, Lisa A.; Ribic, Christine; Pomara, Lars Y.; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2017-01-01

ContextTemperate grasslands and their dependent species are exposed to high variability in weather and climate due to the lack of natural buffers such as forests. Grassland birds are particularly vulnerable to this variability, yet have failed to shift poleward in response to recent climate change like other bird species in North America. However, there have been few studies examining the effect of weather on grassland bird demography and consequent influence of climate change on population persistence and distributional shifts.ObjectivesThe goal of this study was to estimate the vulnerability of Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), an obligate grassland bird that has been declining throughout much of its range, to past and future climatic variability.MethodsWe conducted a demographic meta-analysis from published studies and quantified the relationship between nest success rates and variability in breeding season climate. We projected the climate-demography relationships spatially, throughout the breeding range, and temporally, from 1981 to 2050. These projections were used to evaluate population dynamics by implementing a spatially explicit population model.ResultsWe uncovered a climate-demography linkage for Henslow’s Sparrow with summer precipitation, and to a lesser degree, temperature positively affecting nest success. We found that future climatic conditions—primarily changes in precipitation—will likely contribute to reduced population persistence and a southwestward range contraction.ConclusionsFuture distributional shifts in response to climate change may not always be poleward and assessing projected changes in precipitation is critical for grassland bird conservation and climate change adaptation.

The impact of future forest dynamics on climate: interactive effects of changing vegetation and disturbance regimes

PubMed Central

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2018-01-01

Currently, the temperate forest biome cools the earth’s climate and dampens anthropogenic climate change. However, climate change will substantially alter forest dynamics in the future, affecting the climate regulation function of forests. Increasing natural disturbances can reduce carbon uptake and evaporative cooling, but at the same time increase the albedo of a landscape. Simultaneous changes in vegetation composition can mitigate disturbance impacts, but also influence climate regulation directly (e.g., via albedo changes). As a result of a number of interactive drivers (changes in climate, vegetation, and disturbance) and their simultaneous effects on climate-relevant processes (carbon exchange, albedo, latent heat flux) the future climate regulation function of forests remains highly uncertain. Here we address these complex interactions to assess the effect of future forest dynamics on the climate system. Our specific objectives were (1) to investigate the long-term interactions between changing vegetation composition and disturbance regimes under climate change, (2) to quantify the response of climate regulation to changes in forest dynamics, and (3) to identify the main drivers of the future influence of forests on the climate system. We investigated these issues using the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model (iLand). Simulations were run over 200 yr for Kalkalpen National Park (Austria), assuming different future climate projections, and incorporating dynamically responding wind and bark beetle disturbances. To consistently assess the net effect on climate the simulated responses of carbon exchange, albedo, and latent heat flux were expressed as contributions to radiative forcing. We found that climate change increased disturbances (+27.7% over 200 yr) and specifically bark beetle activity during the 21st century. However, negative feedbacks from a simultaneously changing tree species composition (+28.0% broadleaved species) decreased disturbance activity in the long run (−10.1%), mainly by reducing the host trees available for bark beetles. Climate change and the resulting future forest dynamics significantly reduced the climate regulation function of the landscape, increasing radiative forcing by up to +10.2% on average over 200 yr. Overall, radiative forcing was most strongly driven by carbon exchange. We conclude that future changes in forest dynamics can cause amplifying climate feedbacks from temperate forest ecosystems. PMID:29628526

Exploring the impact of co-varying water availability and energy price on productivity and profitability of Alpine hydropower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anghileri, Daniela; Botter, Martina; Castelletti, Andrea; Burlando, Paolo

2016-04-01

Alpine hydropower systems are experiencing dramatic changes both from the point of view of hydrological conditions, e.g., water availability and frequency of extremes events, and of energy market conditions, e.g., partial or total liberalization of the market and increasing share of renewable power sources. Scientific literature has, so far, mostly focused on the analysis of climate change impacts and associated uncertainty on hydropower operation, underlooking the consequences that socio-economic changes, e.g., energy demand and/or price changes, can have on hydropower productivity and profitability. In this work, we analyse how hydropower reservoir operation is affected by changes in both water availability and energy price. We consider stochastically downscaled climate change scenarios of precipitation and temperature to simulate reservoir inflows using a physically explicit hydrological model. We consider different scenarios of energy demand and generation mix to simulate energy prices using an electricity market model, which includes different generation sources, demand sinks, and features of the transmission lines. We then use Multi-Objective optimization techniques to design the operation of hydropower reservoirs for different purposes, e.g. maximization of revenue and/or energy production. The objective of the work is to assess how the tradeoffs between the multiple operating objectives evolve under different co-varying climate change and socio-economic scenarios and to assess the adaptive capacity of the system. The modeling framework is tested on the real-world case study of the Mattmark reservoir in Switzerland.

NPOESS, Essential Climates Variables and Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe-Newell, S. P.; Bates, J. J.; Barkstrom, B. R.; Privette, J. L.; Kearns, E. J.

2008-12-01

Advancement in understanding, predicting and mitigating against climate change implies collaboration, close monitoring of Essential Climate Variable (ECV)s through development of Climate Data Record (CDR)s and effective action with specific thematic focus on human and environmental impacts. Towards this end, NCDC's Scientific Data Stewardship (SDS) Program Office developed Climate Long-term Information and Observation system (CLIO) for satellite data identification, characterization and use interrogation. This "proof-of-concept" online tool provides the ability to visualize global CDR information gaps and overlaps with options to temporally zoom-in from satellite instruments to climate products, data sets, data set versions and files. CLIO provides an intuitive one-stop web site that displays past, current and planned launches of environmental satellites in conjunction with associated imagery and detailed information. This tool is also capable of accepting and displaying Web-based input from Subject Matter Expert (SME)s providing a global to sub-regional scale perspective of all ECV's and their impacts upon climate studies. SME's can access and interact with temporal data from the past and present, or for future planning of products, datasets/dataset versions, instruments, platforms and networks. CLIO offers quantifiable prioritization of ECV/CDR impacts that effectively deal with climate change issues, their associated impacts upon climate, and this offers an intuitively objective collaboration and consensus building tool. NCDC's latest tool empowers decision makers and the scientific community to rapidly identify weaknesses and strengths in climate change monitoring strategies and significantly enhances climate change collaboration and awareness.

Robust signals of future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall by IPCC AR5 climate models: Role of seasonal cycle and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayasankar, C. B.; Surendran, Sajani; Rajendran, Kavirajan

2015-05-01

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) coupled global climate model Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 simulations are analyzed to derive robust signals of projected changes in Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) and its variability. Models project clear future temperature increase but diverse changes in ISMR with substantial intermodel spread. Objective measures of interannual variability (IAV) yields nearly equal chance for future increase or decrease. This leads to discrepancy in quantifying changes in ISMR and variability. However, based primarily on the physical association between mean changes in ISMR and its IAV, and objective methods such as k-means clustering with Dunn's validity index, mean seasonal cycle, and reliability ensemble averaging, projections fall into distinct groups. Physically consistent groups of models with the highest reliability project future reduction in the frequency of light rainfall but increase in high to extreme rainfall and thereby future increase in ISMR by 0.74 ± 0.36 mm d-1, along with increased future IAV. These robust estimates of future changes are important for useful impact assessments.

Analysis and Model Based Assessment of Water Quality in European Mesoscale Forest Catchments with Different Management Strategies (a Climatic Gradient Approach)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tavares, Filipa; Schwaerzel, Kai; Nunes, João. Pedro; Feger, Karl-Heinz

2010-05-01

Forestry activities affect the environmental conditions of river basins by modifying soil properties and vegetation cover, leading to changes in e.g. runoff generation and routing, water yield or the trophic status of water bodies. Climate change is directly linked to forestry, since site-adapted sustainable forest management can buffer negative climate change impacts in river basins, while practices leading to over-harvesting or increasing wildfires can exacerbate these impacts. While studies relating hydrological processes with forestry practices or climate change have already been conducted, the combined impacts of both are rarely discussed. The main objective of the proposed work is to study the interactions between forest management and climate change and the effects of these upon water fluxes and water quality at the catchment scale, over medium to long-term periods and following an East-West climate gradient. Additional objectives are to increase knowledge about the relations between forest, water quality and soil conservation/degradation; and to improve the modelling of hydrological and matter transport processes in managed forests. The present poster shows a conceptual approach to understand this combined interaction by analysing an East-West climatic gradient (Ukraine-Germany-Portugal), with contrasting forestry practices and climate vulnerabilities. The activities within this workplan, to take place during the period 2010 - 2014, will be developed in close collaboration with several ongoing research projects in the host institution at the Dresden University of Technology (TUD) and in the University of Aveiro (UA). The Institute of Soil Science and Site-Ecology (ISSE) at TUD has an internationally renowned research tradition in forest hydrological topics using methods and findings from various (sub)disciplines in a multidisplinary approach. The measurement and simulation of forest catchments has also been a point of research at the Centre for Environmental and Marine Studies (CESAM) at UA. This work will profit greatly from the experience in both institutions, therefore enhancing knowledge exchange and collaboration between both parties.

The climate4impact platform: Providing, tailoring and facilitating climate model data access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagé, Christian; Pagani, Andrea; Plieger, Maarten; Som de Cerff, Wim; Mihajlovski, Andrej; de Vreede, Ernst; Spinuso, Alessandro; Hutjes, Ronald; de Jong, Fokke; Bärring, Lars; Vega, Manuel; Cofiño, Antonio; d'Anca, Alessandro; Fiore, Sandro; Kolax, Michael

2017-04-01

One of the main objectives of climate4impact is to provide standardized web services and tools that are reusable in other portals. These services include web processing services, web coverage services and web mapping services (WPS, WCS and WMS). Tailored portals can be targeted to specific communities and/or countries/regions while making use of those services. Easier access to climate data is very important for the climate change impact communities. To fulfill this objective, the climate4impact (http://climate4impact.eu/) web portal and services has been developed, targeting climate change impact modellers, impact and adaptation consultants, as well as other experts using climate change data. It provides to users harmonized access to climate model data through tailored services. It features static and dynamic documentation, Use Cases and best practice examples, an advanced search interface, an integrated authentication and authorization system with the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF), a visualization interface with ADAGUC web mapping tools. In the latest version, statistical downscaling services, provided by the Santander Meteorology Group Downscaling Portal, were integrated. An innovative interface to integrate statistical downscaling services will be released in the upcoming version. The latter will be a big step in bridging the gap between climate scientists and the climate change impact communities. The climate4impact portal builds on the infrastructure of an international distributed database that has been set to disseminate the results from the global climate model results of the Coupled Model Intercomparison project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This database, the ESGF, is an international collaboration that develops, deploys and maintains software infrastructure for the management, dissemination, and analysis of climate model data. The European FP7 project IS-ENES, Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling, supports the European contribution to ESGF and contributes to the ESGF open source effort, notably through the development of search, monitoring, quality control, and metadata services. In its second phase, IS-ENES2 supports the implementation of regional climate model results from the international Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiments (CORDEX). These services were extended within the European FP7 Climate Information Portal for Copernicus (CLIPC) project, and some could be later integrated into the European Copernicus platform.

Defining Canadian Perspectives on Climate Change Science and Solutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rieger, C.; Byrne, J. M.

2014-12-01

Despite the overwhelming scientific evidence of potentially disastrous change in global climate, little is being accomplished in climate mitigation or adaptation in Canada. The energy sector in Canada is still primarily oil and gas, with huge tax breaks to the industry in spite of well known harmful regional and global impacts of fossil fuel pollution. One of the largest concerns for the climate science community is the variable and often complacent attitude many Canadians share on the issue of climate change. The objective herein is twofold: (1) a survey tool will be used to assess the views and opinions of Canadians on climate change science and solutions; (2) develop better communication methods for industry, government and NGOs to share the science and solutions with the public. The study results will inform the Canadian public, policy makers and industry of practical, effective changes needed to address climate change challenges. A survey of Canadians' perspectives is an important step in policy changing research. The climate research and application community must know the most effective ways to communicate the science and solutions with a public that is often resistant to change. The AGU presentation will feature the results of the survey, while continued work into 2015 will be towards advancing communication. This study is both timely and crucial for science communicators in understanding how Canadians view climate change, considering, for example, devastatingly extreme weather being experienced of late and its effect on the economy. The results will assist in recognizing how to encourage Canadians to work towards a more sustainable and resilient energy sector in Canada and abroad.

A multi-layered governance framework for incorporating social science insights into adapting to the health impacts of climate change

PubMed Central

Bowen, Kathryn J.; Ebi, Kristie; Friel, Sharon; McMichael, Anthony J.

2013-01-01

Background Addressing climate change and its associated effects is a multi-dimensional and ongoing challenge. This includes recognizing that climate change will affect the health and wellbeing of all populations over short and longer terms, albeit in varied ways and intensities. That recognition has drawn attention to the need to take adaptive actions to lessen adverse impacts over the next few decades from unavoidable climate change, particularly in developing country settings. A range of sectors is responsible for appropriate adaptive policies and measures to address the health risks of climate change, including health services, water and sanitation, trade, agriculture, disaster management, and development. Objectives To broaden the framing of governance and decision-making processes by using innovative methods and assessments to illustrate the multi-sectoral nature of health-related adaptation to climate change. This is a shift from sector-specific to multi-level systems encompassing sectors and actors, across temporal and spatial scales. Design A review and synthesis of the current knowledge in the areas of health and climate change adaptation governance and decision-making processes. Results A novel framework is presented that incorporates social science insights into the formulation and implementation of adaptation activities and policies to lessen the health risks posed by climate change. Conclusion Clarification of the roles that different sectors, organizations, and individuals occupy in relation to the development of health-related adaptation strategies will facilitate the inclusion of health and wellbeing within multi-sector adaptation policies, thereby strengthening the overall set of responses to minimize the adverse health effects of climate change. PMID:24028938

Attribution of maize yield increase in China to climate change and technological advancement between 1980 and 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Jianping; Zhao, Junfang; Wu, Dingrong; Mu, Jia; Xu, Yanhong

2014-12-01

Crop yields are affected by climate change and technological advancement. Objectively and quantitatively evaluating the attribution of crop yield change to climate change and technological advancement will ensure sustainable development of agriculture under climate change. In this study, daily climate variables obtained from 553 meteorological stations in China for the period 1961-2010, detailed observations of maize from 653 agricultural meteorological stations for the period 1981-2010, and results using an Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZ) model, are used to explore the attribution of maize (Zea mays L.) yield change to climate change and technological advancement. In the AEZ model, the climatic potential productivity is examined through three step-by-step levels: photosynthetic potential productivity, photosynthetic thermal potential productivity, and climatic potential productivity. The relative impacts of different climate variables on climatic potential productivity of maize from 1961 to 2010 in China are then evaluated. Combined with the observations of maize, the contributions of climate change and technological advancement to maize yield from 1981 to 2010 in China are separated. The results show that, from 1961 to 2010, climate change had a significant adverse impact on the climatic potential productivity of maize in China. Decreased radiation and increased temperature were the main factors leading to the decrease of climatic potential productivity. However, changes in precipitation had only a small effect. The maize yields of the 14 main planting provinces in China increased obviously over the past 30 years, which was opposite to the decreasing trends of climatic potential productivity. This suggests that technological advancement has offset the negative effects of climate change on maize yield. Technological advancement contributed to maize yield increases by 99.6%-141.6%, while climate change contribution was from -41.4% to 0.4%. In particular, the actual maize yields in Shandong, Henan, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia increased by 98.4, 90.4, 98.7, and 121.5 kg hm-2 yr-1 over the past 30 years, respectively. Correspondingly, the maize yields affected by technological advancement increased by 113.7, 97.9, 111.5, and 124.8 kg hm-2 yr-1, respectively. On the contrary, maize yields reduced markedly under climate change, with an average reduction of -9.0 kg hm-2 yr-1. Our findings highlight that agronomic technological advancement has contributed dominantly to maize yield increases in China in the past three decades.

Climate Benchmark Missions: CLARREO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wielicki, Bruce A.; Young, David F.

2010-01-01

CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) is one of the four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC decadal survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to rigorously observe climate change on decade time scales and to use decadal change observations as the most critical method to determine the accuracy of climate change projections such as those used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4). A rigorously known accuracy of both decadal change observations as well as climate projections is critical in order to enable sound policy decisions. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through highly accurate and SI traceable decadal change observations sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. The same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. The CLARREO breakthrough in decadal climate change observations is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. These accuracy levels are determined both by the projected decadal changes as well as by the background natural variability that such signals must be detected against. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties of calibration, sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most other missions, all of the CLARREO requirements are judged not by instantaneous accuracy, but instead by accuracy in large time/space scale average decadal changes. Given the focus on decadal climate change, the NRC Decadal Survey concluded that the single most critical issue for decadal change observations was their lack of accuracy and low confidence in observing the small but critical climate change signals. CLARREO is the recommended attack on this challenge, and builds on the last decade of climate observation advances in the Earth Observing System as well as metrological advances at NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) and other standards laboratories.

An Ill Wind? Climate Change, Migration, and Health

PubMed Central

Barnett, Jon

2012-01-01

Background: Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move. Objectives: In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response. Methods: This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change. Discussion: Climate-change–related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains. Conclusions: Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change. PMID:22266739

Climate change and older Americans: state of the science.

PubMed

Gamble, Janet L; Hurley, Bradford J; Schultz, Peter A; Jaglom, Wendy S; Krishnan, Nisha; Harris, Melinda

2013-01-01

Older adults make up 13% of the U.S. population, but are projected to account for 20% by 2040. Coinciding with this demographic shift, the rate of climate change is accelerating, bringing rising temperatures; increased risk of floods, droughts, and wildfires; stronger tropical storms and hurricanes; rising sea levels; and other climate-related hazards. Older Americans are expected to be located in places that may be relatively more affected by climate change, including coastal zones and large metropolitan areas. The objective of this review is to assess the vulnerability of older Americans to climate change and to identify opportunities for adaptation. We performed an extensive literature survey and summarized key findings related to demographics; climate stressors relevant to older adults; factors contributing to exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity; and adaptation strategies. A range of physiological and socioeconomic factors make older adults especially sensitive to and/or at risk for exposure to heat waves and other extreme weather events (e.g., hurricanes, floods, droughts), poor air quality, and infectious diseases. Climate change may increase the frequency or severity of these events. Older Americans are likely to be especially vulnerable to stressors associated with climate change. Although a growing body of evidence reports the adverse effects of heat on the health of older adults, research gaps remain for other climate-related risks. We need additional study of the vulnerability of older adults and the interplay of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptive responses to projected climate stressors.

Agriculture in the climate change negotiations; ensuring that food production is not threatened.

PubMed

Muldowney, J; Mounsey, J; Kinsella, L

2013-06-01

With the human population predicted to reach nine billion by 2050, demand for food is predicted to more than double over this time period, a trend which will lead to increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture. Furthermore, expansion in food production is predicted to occur primarily in the developing world, where adaptation to climate change may be more difficult and opportunities to mitigate emissions limited. In the establishment of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 'ensuring that food production is not threatened' is explicitly mentioned in the objective of the Convention. However, the focus of negotiations under the Convention has largely been on reducing GHG emissions from energy, and industrial activities and realizing the potential of forestry as a carbon sink. There has been little attention by the UNFCCC to address the challenges and opportunities for the agriculture sector. Since 2006, concerted efforts have been made to raise the prominence of agriculture within the negotiations. The most recent The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report and 'The Emissions Gap Report' by the UNEP highlighted the significant mitigation potential of agriculture, which can help contribute towards keeping global temperature rises below the 2°C limit agreed in Cancun. Agriculture has to be a part of the solution to address climate change, but this will also require a focus on how agriculture systems can adapt to climate change in order to continue to increase food output. However, to effectively realize this potential, systematic and dedicated discussion and decisions within the UNFCCC are needed. UNFCCC discussions on a specific agriculture agenda item started in 2012, but are currently inconclusive. However, Parties are generally in agreement on the importance of agriculture in contributing to food security and employment as well as the need to improve understanding of agriculture and how it can contribute to realizing climate objectives. Discussions on agriculture are continuing with a view to finding an acceptable approach to address the climate change related challenges faced by agriculture worldwide and to ensure that 'food production is not threatened'.

Ecosystem-based management of coastal zones in face of climate change impacts: Challenges and inequalities.

PubMed

Fernandino, Gerson; Elliff, Carla I; Silva, Iracema R

2018-06-01

Climate change effects have the potential of affecting both ocean and atmospheric processes. These changes pose serious threats to the millions of people that live by the coast. Thus, the objective of the present review is to discuss how climate change is altering (and will continue to alter) atmospheric and oceanic processes, what are the main implications of these alterations along the coastline, and which are the ecosystem-based management (EBM) strategies that have been proposed and applied to address these issues. While ocean warming, ocean acidification and increasing sea level have been more extensively studied, investigations on the effects of climate change to wind and wave climates are less frequent. Coastal ecosystems and their respective natural resources will respond differently according to location, environmental drivers and coastal processes. EBM strategies have mostly concentrated on improving ecosystem services, which can be used to assist in mitigating climate change effects. The main challenge for developing nations regards gaps in information and scarcity of resources. Thus, for effective management and adaptive EBM strategies to be developed worldwide, information at a local level is greatly needed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change and public health policy: translating the science.

PubMed

Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein

2013-12-19

Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character.

Climate Change and Public Health Policy: Translating the Science

PubMed Central

Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein

2013-01-01

Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character. PMID:24452252

Infusion of Climate Change and Geospatial Science Concepts into Environmental and Biological Science Curriculum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balaji Bhaskar, M. S.; Rosenzweig, J.; Shishodia, S.

2017-12-01

The objective of our activity is to improve the students understanding and interpretation of geospatial science and climate change concepts and its applications in the field of Environmental and Biological Sciences in the College of Science Engineering and Technology (COEST) at Texas Southern University (TSU) in Houston, TX. The courses of GIS for Environment, Ecology and Microbiology were selected for the curriculum infusion. A total of ten GIS hands-on lab modules, along with two NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) lab modules on climate change were implemented in the "GIS for Environment" course. GIS and Google Earth Labs along with climate change lectures were infused into Microbiology and Ecology courses. Critical thinking and empirical skills of the students were assessed in all the courses. The student learning outcomes of these courses includes the ability of students to interpret the geospatial maps and the student demonstration of knowledge of the basic principles and concepts of GIS (Geographic Information Systems) and climate change. At the end of the courses, students developed a comprehensive understanding of the geospatial data, its applications in understanding climate change and its interpretation at the local and regional scales during multiple years.

Spectators or participants: How can SETAC become more engaged in international climate change research programs?

PubMed

Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L; Clements, William H

2017-08-01

Environmental toxicologists and chemists have been crucial to evaluating the chemical fate and toxicological effects of environmental contaminants, including chlorinated pesticides, before and after Rachel Carson's publication of Silent Spring in 1962. Like chlorinated pesticides previously, global climate change is widely considered to be one of the most important environmental challenges of our time. Over the past 30 yr, climate scientists and modelers have shown that greenhouse gases such as CO 2 and CH 4 cause radiative forcing (climate forcing) and lead to increased global temperatures. Despite significant climate change research efforts worldwide, the climate science community has overlooked potential problems associated with chemical contaminants, in particular how climate change could magnify the ecological consequences of their use and disposal. It is conceivable that the impacts of legacy or new chemical contaminants on wildlife and humans may be exacerbated when climate changes, especially if global temperatures rise as predicted. This lack of attention to chemical contaminants represents an opportunity for environmental toxicologists and chemists to become part of the global research program, and our objective is to highlight the importance of and ways for that to occur. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:1971-1977. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

DOE PAGES

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; ...

2017-01-01

Our primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud–climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. But, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions Howmore » does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO 2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO 2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO 2 forcing and sea surface warming?CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations?What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models?Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds?How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?« less

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Bony, Sandrine; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Chadwick, Robin; Chepfer, Helene; Douville, Herve; Good, Peter; Kay, Jennifer E.;

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro

Our primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud–climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. But, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions Howmore » does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO 2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO 2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO 2 forcing and sea surface warming?CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations?What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models?Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds?How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?« less

NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Supporting Analyses for National Climate Assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemani, R. R.; Thrasher, B. L.; Wang, W.; Lee, T. J.; Melton, F. S.; Dungan, J. L.; Michaelis, A.

2015-12-01

The NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) is a collaborative computing platform that has been developed with the objective of bringing scientists together with the software tools, massive global datasets, and supercomputing resources necessary to accelerate research in Earth systems science and global change. NEX supports several research projects that are closely related with the National Climate Assessment including the generation of high-resolution climate projections, identification of trends and extremes in climate variables and the evaluation of their impacts on regional carbon/water cycles and biodiversity, the development of land-use management and adaptation strategies for climate-change scenarios, and even the exploration of climate mitigation through geo-engineering. Scientists also use the large collection of satellite data on NEX to conduct research on quantifying spatial and temporal changes in land surface processes in response to climate and land-cover-land-use changes. Researchers, leveraging NEX's massive compute/storage resources, have used statistical techniques to downscale the coarse-resolution CMIP5 projections to fulfill the demands of the community for a wide range of climate change impact analyses. The DCP-30 (Downscaled Climate Projections at 30 arcsecond) for the conterminous US at monthly, ~1km resolution and the GDDP (Global Daily Downscaled Projections) for the entire world at daily, 25km resolution are now widely used in climate research and applications, as well as for communicating climate change. In order to serve a broader community, the NEX team in collaboration with Amazon, Inc, created the OpenNEX platform. OpenNEX provides ready access to NEX data holdings, including the NEX-DCP30 and GDDP datasets along with a number of pertinent analysis tools and workflows on the AWS infrastructure in the form of publicly available, self contained, fully functional Amazon Machine Images (AMI's) for anyone interested in global climate change.

Response of lake chemistry to atmospheric deposition and climate in selected Class I wilderness areas in the western United States, 1993-2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mast, M. Alisa

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Air Resource Management, conducted a study to evaluate long-term trends in lake-water chemistry for 64 high-elevation lakes in selected Class I wilderness areas in Colorado, Idaho, Utah, and Wyoming during 1993 to 2009. Understanding how and why lake chemistry is changing in mountain areas is essential for effectively managing and protecting high-elevation aquatic ecosystems. Trends in emissions, atmospheric deposition, and climate variables (air temperature and precipitation amount) were evaluated over a similar period of record. A main objective of the study was to determine if changes in atmospheric deposition of contaminants in the Rocky Mountain region have resulted in measurable changes in the chemistry of high-elevation lakes. A second objective was to investigate linkages between lake chemistry and air temperature and precipitation to improve understanding of the sensitivity of mountain lakes to climate variability.

Projecting wildfire area burned in the south-eastern United States, 2011-60

Treesearch

Jeff Prestemon; Uma Shankar; Aijun Xiu; K. Talgo; D. Yang; Ernest Dixon IV; Donald McKenzie; Karen L. Abt

2016-01-01

Future changes in society and climate are expected to affect wildfire activity in the south-eastern United States. The objective of this research was to understand how changes in both climate and society may affect wildfire in the coming decades.Weestimated a three-stage statistical model of wildfire area burned by ecoregion province for lightning and human causes (...

Ecosystem services and climate change: Understanding the differences and identifying opportunities for forest carbon

Treesearch

Robert L. Deal; Crystal Raymond; David L. Peterson; Cindy Glick

2010-01-01

There are a number of misunderstandings about “ecosystem services” and “climate change” and these terms are often used incorrectly to describe different concepts. These concepts address different issues and objectives but have some important integrating themes relating to carbon and carbon sequestration. In this paper, we provide definitions and distinctions between...

Understanding the Hydrologic Response of a Coastal Plain Watershed to Forest Management and Climate Change in South Carolina, U.S.A.

Treesearch

J. Lu; Ge Sun; Devendra M. Amatya; S. V. Harder; Steve G. McNulty

2006-01-01

The hydrologic processes in wetland ecosystems are not well understood. There are also great concerns and uncertainties about the hydrologic response of wetlands to forest management and climate change. The objective of this study is to apply a hydrologic model to better understand the hydrologic processes of a low relief coastal forested watershed and its responses to...

Northwest Regional Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lipschultz, Fred

2011-01-01

Objectives are to establish a continuing, inclusive National process that: 1) synthesizes relevant science and information 2) increases understanding of what is known & not known 3) identifies information needs related to preparing for climate variability and change, and reducing climate impacts and vulnerability 4) evaluates progress of adaptation & mitigation activities 5) informs science priorities 6) builds assessment capacity in regions and sectors 7) builds understanding & skilled use of findings

Assessing the sensitivity of avian species abundance to land cover and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

LeBrun, Jaymi J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Thompson, Frank R.; Dijak, William D.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

2016-01-01

Climate projections for the Midwestern United States predict southerly climates to shift northward. These shifts in climate could alter distributions of species across North America through changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation), or through climate-induced changes on land cover. Our objective was to determine the relative impacts of land cover and climate on the abundance of five bird species in the Central United States that have habitat requirements ranging from grassland and shrubland to forest. We substituted space for time to examine potential impacts of a changing climate by assessing climate and land cover relationships over a broad latitudinal gradient. We found positive and negative relationships of climate and land cover factors with avian abundances. Habitat variables drove patterns of abundance in migratory and resident species, although climate was also influential in predicting abundance for some species occupying more open habitat (i.e., prairie warbler, blue-winged warbler, and northern bobwhite). Abundance of northern bobwhite increased with winter temperature and was the species exhibiting the most significant effect of climate. Models for birds primarily occupying early successional habitats performed better with a combination of habitat and climate variables whereas models of species found in contiguous forest performed best with land cover alone. These varied species-specific responses present unique challenges to land managers trying to balance species conservation over a variety of land covers. Management activities focused on increasing forest cover may play a role in mitigating effects of future climate by providing habitat refugia to species vulnerable to projected changes. Conservation efforts would be best served focusing on areas with high species abundances and an array of habitats. Future work managing forests for resilience and resistance to climate change could benefit species already susceptible to climate impacts.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Ellis, J.; Woodruff, D.; Quattrochi, D.; Rose, K.; Swann, R.

2012-12-01

Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Hydrologic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Climate Change on Shallow Aquatic Ecosystems in the Mobile Bay, AL Estuary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Estes, M. G.; Al-Hamdan, M. Z.; Thom, R.; Judd, C.; Woodruff, D.; Ellis, J. T.; Quattrochi, D.; Swann, R.

2012-01-01

Coastal systems in the northern Gulf of Mexico, including the Mobile Bay, AL estuary, are subject to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including climate change. Climate changes have a direct effect on the discharge of rivers that drain into Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal water bodies. The outflows change water quality (temperature, salinity, and sediment concentrations) in the shallow aquatic areas and affect ecosystem functioning. Mobile Bay is a vital ecosystem that provides habitat for many species of fauna and flora. Historically, submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) and seagrasses were found in this area of the northern Gulf of Mexico; however the extent of vegetation has significantly decreased over the last 60 years. The objectives of this research are to determine: how climate changes affect runoff and water quality in the estuary and how these changes will affect habitat suitability for SAV and seagrasses. Our approach is to use watershed and hydrodynamic modeling to evaluate the impact of climate change on shallow water aquatic ecosystems in Mobile Bay and adjacent coastal areas. Remotely sensed Landsat data were used for current land cover land use (LCLU) model input and the data provided by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the future changes in temperature, precipitation, and sea level rise were used to create the climate scenarios for the 2025 and 2050 model simulations. Project results are being shared with Gulf coast stakeholders through the Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas to benefit coastal policy and climate change adaptation strategies.

Hydrologic response to forest cover changes following a Mountain Pine Beetle outbreak in the context of a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Dan; Jost, Georg; Nelson, Harry; Smith, Russell

2013-04-01

Over the last 15 years, there has been extensive mortality of pine forests in western North America associated with an outbreak of Mountain Pine Beetle, often followed by salvage logging. The objective of this study was to quantify the separate and combined effects of forest recovery and climate change over the 21st century on catchment hydrology in the San Jose watershed, located in the semi-arid Interior Plateau of British Columbia. Forest cover changes were simulated using a dynamic spatial model that uses a decentralized planning approach. We implemented management strategies representing current timber management objectives around achieving targeted harvest levels and incorporating existing management constraints under two different scenarios, one with no climate change and one under climate change, using climate-adjusted growth and yield curves. In addition, higher rates of fire disturbance were modelled under climate change. Under climate change, while productivity improves for some species (mainly Douglas-fir on better quality sites), on drier and poorer quality sites most species, especially Lodgepole Pine, become significantly less productive, and stocking is reduced to the point that those sites transition into grasslands. The combined effect of initial age classes (where the forest has been severely impacted by MPB), increased fire, and reduced stocking results in a greater proportion of the forest in younger age classes compared to a "Business As Usual" scenario with no climate change. The hydrologic responses to changes in vegetation cover and climate were evaluated with the flexible Hydrology Emulator and Modelling Platform (HEMP) developed at the University of British Columbia. HEMP allows a flexible discretization of the landscape. Water is moved vertically within landscape units by processes such as precipitation, canopy interception and soil infiltration, and routed laterally between units as a function of local soil and groundwater storage. The model was calibrated and tested on three stream gauges and on snow course data. A 'guided' GLUE approach was used to address the effects of parameter uncertainty and uncertainty in streamflow data on the uncertainty in future projections. Overall, the establishment and growth of post-disturbance forest stands result in a substantial reduction in snow accumulation and melt rates, and an increase in evapotranspiration, together resulting in a reduction in streamflow. The influence of projected climate warming was to advance the timing of spring melt, exacerbating the reductions in late-summer streamflow associated with forest recovery. In some climate scenarios, increases in precipitation helped to offset reductions in streamflow associated with forest recovery. Some challenges associated with linking output from the forest dynamics simulations and the hydrologic model are identified and potential solutions discussed.

Climate change and Public health: vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guzzone, F.; Setegn, S.

2013-12-01

Climate Change plays a significant role in public health. Changes in climate affect weather conditions that we are accustomed to. Increases in the frequency or severity of extreme weather events such as storms could increase the risk of dangerous flooding, high winds, and other direct threats to people and property. Changes in temperature, precipitation patterns, and extreme events could enhance the spread of some diseases. According to studies by EPA, the impacts of climate change on health will depend on many factors. These factors include the effectiveness of a community's public health and safety systems to address or prepare for the risk and the behavior, age, gender, and economic status of individuals affected. Impacts will likely vary by region, the sensitivity of populations, the extent and length of exposure to climate change impacts, and society's ability to adapt to change. Transmissions of infectious disease have been associated with social, economic, ecological, health care access, and climatic factors. Some vector-borne diseases typically exhibit seasonal patterns in which the role of temperature and rainfall is well documented. Some of the infectious diseases that have been documented by previous studies, include the correlation between rainfall and drought in the occurrence of malaria, the influence of the dry season on epidemic meningococcal disease in the sub-Saharan African, and the importance of warm ocean waters in driving cholera occurrence in the Ganges River delta in Asia The rise of climate change has been a major concern in the public health sector. Climate change mainly affects vulnerable populations especially in developing countries; therefore, it's important that public health advocates are involve in the decision-making process in order to provide resources and preventative measures for the challenges that are associated with climate change. The main objective of this study is to assess the vulnerability and impact of climate change on public health and identify appropriate adaptation strategies. Several studies have evaluated the impact of climate change on health, which have included evaluating the current associations between the recent changes in climate, and the evidence base analysis of current, as well as projecting the future impacts of climate change on health. This study will document the use of building an integrated approach for sustainable management of climate, environmental, health surveillance and epidemiological data that will support the assessment of vulnerability, impact and adaption to climate change.

Climate, Water and Renewable Energy in the Nordic Countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snorrason, A.; Jonsdottir, J. F.

2004-05-01

Climate and Energy (CE) is a new Nordic research project with funding from Nordic Energy Research (NEFP) and the Nordic energy sector. The project has the objective of a comprehensive assessment of the impact of climate variability and change on Nordic renewable energy resources including hydropower, wind power, bio-fuels and solar energy. This will include assessment of the power production of the hydropower dominated Nordic energy system and its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change on both temporal and spatial scales; assessment of the impacts of extremes including floods, droughts, storms, seasonal patterns and variability. Within the CE project several thematic groups work on specific issues of climatic change and their impacts on renewable energy. A primary aim of the CE climate group is to supply a standard set of common scenarios of climate change in northern Europe and Greenland, based on recent global and regional climate change experiments. The snow and ice group has chosen glaciers from Greenland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden for an analysis of the response of glaciers to climate changes. Mass balance and dynamical changes, corresponding to the common scenario for climate changes, will be modelled and effects on glacier hydrology will be estimated. Preliminary work with dynamic modelling and climate scenarios shows a dramatic response of glacial runoff to increased temperature and precipitation. The statistical analysis group has reported on the status of time series analysis in the Nordic countries. The group has selected and quality controlled time series of stream flow to be included in the Nordic component of the database FRIEND. Also the group will collect information on time series for other variables and these series will be systematically analysed with respect to trend and other long-term changes. Preliminary work using multivariate analysis on stream flow and climate variables shows strong linkages with the long term atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic. The hydrological modelling group has already reported on "Climate change impacts on water resources in the Nordic countries - State of the art and discussion of principles". The group will compare different approaches of transferring the climate change signal into hydrological models and discuss uncertainties in models and climate scenarios. Furthermore, comprehensive assessment and mapping of impact of climate change will be produced for the whole Nordic region based on the scenarios from the CE-climate group.

Past climates primary productivity changes in the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Mézo, P. K.; Kageyama, M.; Bopp, L.; Beaufort, L.; Braconnot, P.; Bassinot, F. C.

2016-02-01

Organic climate recorders, e.g., coccolithophorids and foraminifera, are widely used to reconstruct past climate conditions, such as the Indian monsoon intensity and variability, since they are sensitive to climate-induced fluctuations of their environment. In the Indian Ocean, it is commonly accepted that a stronger summer monsoon will enhance productivity in the Arabian Sea and therefore the amount of organisms in a sediment core should reflect monsoon intensity. In this study, we use the coupled Earth System Model IPSLCM5A, which has a biogeochemical component PISCES that simulates primary production. We use 8 climate simulations of the IPSL-CM5A model, from -72kyr BP climate conditions to a preindustrial state. Our simulations have different orbital forcing (precession, obliquity and eccentricity), greenhouse gas concentrations as well as different ice sheet covers. The objective of this work is to characterize the mechanisms behind the changes in primary productivity between the different time periods. Our model shows that in climates where monsoon is enhanced (due to changes in precession) we do not necessarily see an increase in summer productivity in the Arabian Sea, and inversely. It seems that the glacial-interglacial state of the simulation is important in driving productivity changes in this region of the world. We try to explain the changes in productivity in the Arabian Sea with the local climate and then to link the changes in local climate to large scale atmospheric forcing and commonly used Indian monsoon definitions.

Uncertainties associated with quantifying climate change impacts on human health: a case study for diarrhea.

PubMed

Kolstad, Erik W; Johansson, Kjell Arne

2011-03-01

Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8-11% (with SDs of 3-5%) by 2010-2039 and 22-29% (SDs of 9-12%) by 2070-2099. Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate-health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health.

The Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Strategies on Animal Welfare.

PubMed

Shields, Sara; Orme-Evans, Geoffrey

2015-05-21

The objective of this review is to point out that the global dialog on reducing greenhouse gas emissions in animal agriculture has, thus far, not adequately considered animal welfare in proposed climate change mitigation strategies. Many suggested approaches for reducing emissions, most of which could generally be described as calls for the intensification of production, can have substantial effects on the animals. Given the growing world-wide awareness and concern for animal welfare, many of these approaches are not socially sustainable. This review identifies the main emission abatement strategies in the climate change literature that would negatively affect animal welfare and details the associated problems. Alternative strategies are also identified as possible solutions for animal welfare and climate change, and it is suggested that more attention be focused on these types of options when allocating resources, researching mitigation strategies, and making policy decisions on reducing emissions from animal agriculture.

Objectively classifying Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catto, Jennifer

2016-04-01

There has been a long tradition in attempting to separate extratropical cyclones into different classes depending on their cloud signatures, airflows, synoptic precursors, or upper-level flow features. Depending on these features, the cyclones may have different impacts, for example in their precipitation intensity. It is important, therefore, to understand how the distribution of different cyclone classes may change in the future. Many of the previous classifications have been performed manually. In order to be able to evaluate climate models and understand how extratropical cyclones might change in the future, we need to be able to use an automated method to classify cyclones. Extratropical cyclones have been identified in the Southern Hemisphere from the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset with a commonly used identification and tracking algorithm that employs 850 hPa relative vorticity. A clustering method applied to large-scale fields from ERA-Interim at the time of cyclone genesis (when the cyclone is first detected), has been used to objectively classify identified cyclones. The results are compared to the manual classification of Sinclair and Revell (2000) and the four objectively identified classes shown in this presentation are found to match well. The relative importance of diabatic heating in the clusters is investigated, as well as the differing precipitation characteristics. The success of the objective classification shows its utility in climate model evaluation and climate change studies.

From Global Climate Model Projections to Local Impacts Assessments: Analyses in Support of Planning for Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snover, A. K.; Littell, J. S.; Mantua, N. J.; Salathe, E. P.; Hamlet, A. F.; McGuire Elsner, M.; Tohver, I.; Lee, S.

2010-12-01

Assessing and planning for the impacts of climate change require regionally-specific information. Information is required not only about projected changes in climate but also the resultant changes in natural and human systems at the temporal and spatial scales of management and decision making. Therefore, climate impacts assessment typically results in a series of analyses, in which relatively coarse-resolution global climate model projections of changes in regional climate are downscaled to provide appropriate input to local impacts models. This talk will describe recent examples in which coarse-resolution (~150 to 300km) GCM output was “translated” into information requested by decision makers at relatively small (watershed) and large (multi-state) scales using regional climate modeling, statistical downscaling, hydrologic modeling, and sector-specific impacts modeling. Projected changes in local air temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and stream temperature were developed to support Seattle City Light’s assessment of climate change impacts on hydroelectric operations, future electricity load, and resident fish populations. A state-wide assessment of climate impacts on eight sectors (agriculture, coasts, energy, forests, human health, hydrology and water resources, salmon, and urban stormwater infrastructure) was developed for Washington State to aid adaptation planning. Hydro-climate change scenarios for approximately 300 streamflow locations in the Columbia River basin and selected coastal drainages west of the Cascades were developed in partnership with major water management agencies in the Pacific Northwest to allow planners to consider how hydrologic changes may affect management objectives. Treatment of uncertainty in these assessments included: using “bracketing” scenarios to describe a range of impacts, using ensemble averages to characterize the central estimate of future conditions (given an emissions scenario), and explicitly assessing the impacts of multiple GCM ensemble members. The implications of various approaches to dealing with uncertainty, such as these, must be carefully communicated to decision makers in order for projected climate impacts to be viewed as credible and used appropriately.

Climate change and the origins of agriculture: A global perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Byrne, R.

1995-12-31

Most students of the agricultural origins problem have rejected the thesis that climate change was in important causal variable. For example, it is often emphasized that agriculture began at different times in different areas, and that climate change could not therefore have been a significant factor. It is also suggested that climate change at the end of the last glacial could not have been important, because similar changes in climate occurred at the end of the penultimate glaciation without any cultural response. The primary purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that these objections are invalid, and are based onmore » a misunderstanding of: (1) the nature of late-Pleistocene/early-Holocene climate changes; and (2) the ecological context of early agriculture. Alternatively, it is proposed that the more or less synchronous development of agricultural in several widely separated areas of the globe is best seen as an indirect response to changes in climate during the Pleistocene/Holocene transitions. Three common denominators characterize the early centers of agricultural and collectively point to climate changes as a primary factor: (1) all are located in areas that today are characterized by strongly seasonal rainfall regimes; (2) the initial domestication of plants occurred independently at within a very short period of time during and immediately following the Pleistocene/Holocene transition; and (3) the early plant domesticates were either annuals or geophytes, autecologically adapted to seasonality of moisture supply. The implication is that increased seasonality during the Pleistocene/Holocene transition brought about changes in wild plant and animal populations that in turn led to domestication and agriculture.« less

A Health Impact Assessment Framework for Assessing Vulnerability and Adaptation Planning for Climate Change

PubMed Central

Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

2014-01-01

This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru. PMID:25514146

Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eng, K.; Wolock, D.; Dettinger, M. D.

2014-12-01

There is a great deal of interest in streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have focused on perennial streams, and only a few studies have examined the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objective in this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the semi-arid regions of the western United States. This study was carried out at 45 intermittent streams that had a minimum of 45 years of daily-streamgage record by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate, and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results showed strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical changes in climate. The decadal analysis, in contrast, suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long-term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined.

A health impact assessment framework for assessing vulnerability and adaptation planning for climate change.

PubMed

Brown, Helen; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne

2014-12-01

This paper presents a detailed description of an approach designed to investigate the application of the Health Impact Assessment (HIA) framework to assess the potential health impacts of climate change. A HIA framework has been combined with key climate change terminology and concepts. The fundamental premise of this framework is an understanding of the interactions between people, the environment and climate. The diversity and complexity of these interactions can hinder much needed action on the critical health issue of climate change. The objectives of the framework are to improve the methodology for understanding and assessing the risks associated with potential health impacts of climate change, and to provide decision-makers with information that can facilitate the development of effective adaptation plans. While the process presented here provides guidance with respect to this task it is not intended to be prescriptive. As such, aspects of the process can be amended to suit the scope and available resources of each project. A series of working tables has been developed to assist in the collation of evidence throughout the process. The framework has been tested in a number of locations including Western Australia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu and Nauru.

Investigation of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources for an Alpine Basin in Northern Italy: Implications for Evapotranspiration Modeling Complexity

PubMed Central

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required beacause of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied. PMID:25285917

Investigation of climate change impact on water resources for an Alpine basin in northern Italy: implications for evapotranspiration modeling complexity.

PubMed

Ravazzani, Giovanni; Ghilardi, Matteo; Mendlik, Thomas; Gobiet, Andreas; Corbari, Chiara; Mancini, Marco

2014-01-01

Assessing the future effects of climate change on water availability requires an understanding of how precipitation and evapotranspiration rates will respond to changes in atmospheric forcing. Use of simplified hydrological models is required because of lack of meteorological forcings with the high space and time resolutions required to model hydrological processes in mountains river basins, and the necessity of reducing the computational costs. The main objective of this study was to quantify the differences between a simplified hydrological model, which uses only precipitation and temperature to compute the hydrological balance when simulating the impact of climate change, and an enhanced version of the model, which solves the energy balance to compute the actual evapotranspiration. For the meteorological forcing of future scenario, at-site bias-corrected time series based on two regional climate models were used. A quantile-based error-correction approach was used to downscale the regional climate model simulations to a point scale and to reduce its error characteristics. The study shows that a simple temperature-based approach for computing the evapotranspiration is sufficiently accurate for performing hydrological impact investigations of climate change for the Alpine river basin which was studied.

Development of Distributed Research Center for analysis of regional climatic and environmental changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gordov, E.; Shiklomanov, A.; Okladnikov, I.; Prusevich, A.; Titov, A.

2016-11-01

We present an approach and first results of a collaborative project being carried out by a joint team of researchers from the Institute of Monitoring of Climatic and Ecological Systems, Russia and Earth Systems Research Center UNH, USA. Its main objective is development of a hardware and software platform prototype of a Distributed Research Center (DRC) for monitoring and projecting of regional climatic and environmental changes in the Northern extratropical areas. The DRC should provide the specialists working in climate related sciences and decision-makers with accurate and detailed climatic characteristics for the selected area and reliable and affordable tools for their in-depth statistical analysis and studies of the effects of climate change. Within the framework of the project, new approaches to cloud processing and analysis of large geospatial datasets (big geospatial data) inherent to climate change studies are developed and deployed on technical platforms of both institutions. We discuss here the state of the art in this domain, describe web based information-computational systems developed by the partners, justify the methods chosen to reach the project goal, and briefly list the results obtained so far.

Valuing Groundwater Resources in Arid Watersheds under Climate Change: A Framework and Estimates for the Upper Rio Grande

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hurd, B. H.; Coonrod, J.

2008-12-01

Climate change is expected to alter surface hydrology throughout the arid Western United States, in most cases compressing the period of peak snowmelt and runoff, and in some cases, for example, the Rio Grande, limiting total runoff. As such, climate change is widely expected to further stress arid watersheds, particularly in regions where trends in population growth, economic development and environmental regulation are current challenges. Strategies to adapt to such changes are evolving at various institutional levels including conjunctive management of surface and ground waters. Groundwater resources remain one of the key components of water management strategies aimed at accommodating continued population growth and mitigating the potential for water supply disruptions under climate change. By developing a framework for valuing these resources and for value improvements in the information pertaining to their characteristics, this research can assist in prioritizing infrastructure and investment to change and enhance water resource management. The key objective of this paper is to 1) develop a framework for estimating the value of groundwater resources and improved information, and 2) provide some preliminary estimates of this value and how it responds to plausible scenarios of climate change.

Impacts of Climate Change on Indirect Human Exposure to Pathogens and Chemicals from Agriculture

PubMed Central

Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Hardy, Anthony; Beulke, Sabine; Boucard, Tatiana; Burgin, Laura; Falloon, Peter D.; Haygarth, Philip M.; Hutchinson, Thomas; Kovats, R. Sari; Leonardi, Giovanni; Levy, Leonard S.; Nichols, Gordon; Parsons, Simon A.; Potts, Laura; Stone, David; Topp, Edward; Turley, David B.; Walsh, Kerry; Wellington, Elizabeth M.H.; Williams, Richard J.

2009-01-01

Objective Climate change is likely to affect the nature of pathogens and chemicals in the environment and their fate and transport. Future risks of pathogens and chemicals could therefore be very different from those of today. In this review, we assess the implications of climate change for changes in human exposures to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems in the United Kingdom and discuss the subsequent effects on health impacts. Data sources In this review, we used expert input and considered literature on climate change; health effects resulting from exposure to pathogens and chemicals arising from agriculture; inputs of chemicals and pathogens to agricultural systems; and human exposure pathways for pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. Data synthesis We established the current evidence base for health effects of chemicals and pathogens in the agricultural environment; determined the potential implications of climate change on chemical and pathogen inputs in agricultural systems; and explored the effects of climate change on environmental transport and fate of different contaminant types. We combined these data to assess the implications of climate change in terms of indirect human exposure to pathogens and chemicals in agricultural systems. We then developed recommendations on future research and policy changes to manage any adverse increases in risks. Conclusions Overall, climate change is likely to increase human exposures to agricultural contaminants. The magnitude of the increases will be highly dependent on the contaminant type. Risks from many pathogens and particulate and particle-associated contaminants could increase significantly. These increases in exposure can, however, be managed for the most part through targeted research and policy changes. PMID:19440487

The Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN) Second Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2), and the UCCRN Hubs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenzweig, C.; Ali Ibrahim, S.

2015-12-01

The objective of this session is to foster a dialogue between experts working on global-scale, climate change and cities assessments in order to simultaneously present state-of-the-art knowledge on how cities are responding to climate change and to define emerging opportunities and challenges to the effective placement of this knowledge in the hands of local stakeholders and decision-makers. We will present the UCCRN and the Second UCCRN Assessment Report on Climate Change and Cities (ARC3-2), the second in an ongoing series of global, interdisciplinary, cross-regional, science-based assessments to address climate risks, adaptation, mitigation, and policy mechanisms relevant to cities. This is an especially important time to examine these issues. Cities continue to act as world leaders in climate action. Several major climate change assessment efforts are in full swing, at a crucial stage where significant opportunities for the co-production of knowledge between researchers and stakeholders exist. The IPCC AR5 Working Group II and III Reports have placed unprecedented attention on cities and urbanization and their connection to the issue of climate change. Concurrently several major, explicitly city-focused efforts have emerged from the Urban Climate Change Research Network (UCCRN), ICLEI, the Durban Adaptation Charter (DAC), C40, Future Earth, and the Urbanization and Global Environmental Change (UGEC) Project, among others. The underlying rationale for the discussion will be to identify methods and approaches to further foster the development and dissemination of new climate change knowledge and information that will be useful for cities, especially in small and medium-sized cities and in the developing country context where the demand is particularly acute. Participants will leave this session with: · The latest scientific data and state-of-the-knowledge on how cities are responding to climate change · Emerging opportunities and challenges to the effective placement of this knowledge in the hands of local stakeholders and decision-makers and for urban resilience and adaptation action · How practitioner-scientist interactions can work best · Synergies between the IPCC, ARC3, and other climate and cities assessments

Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean.

PubMed

Halpern, Benjamin S; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R; Selkoe, Kimberly A; Walbridge, Shaun

2015-07-14

Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems.

Spatial and temporal changes in cumulative human impacts on the world's ocean

PubMed Central

Halpern, Benjamin S.; Frazier, Melanie; Potapenko, John; Casey, Kenneth S.; Koenig, Kellee; Longo, Catherine; Lowndes, Julia Stewart; Rockwood, R. Cotton; Selig, Elizabeth R.; Selkoe, Kimberly A.; Walbridge, Shaun

2015-01-01

Human pressures on the ocean are thought to be increasing globally, yet we know little about their patterns of cumulative change, which pressures are most responsible for change, and which places are experiencing the greatest increases. Managers and policymakers require such information to make strategic decisions and monitor progress towards management objectives. Here we calculate and map recent change over 5 years in cumulative impacts to marine ecosystems globally from fishing, climate change, and ocean- and land-based stressors. Nearly 66% of the ocean and 77% of national jurisdictions show increased human impact, driven mostly by climate change pressures. Five percent of the ocean is heavily impacted with increasing pressures, requiring management attention. Ten percent has very low impact with decreasing pressures. Our results provide large-scale guidance about where to prioritize management efforts and affirm the importance of addressing climate change to maintain and improve the condition of marine ecosystems. PMID:26172980

Global Warming and Geographically Scalar Climatic Objects Exist: An Ontologically Realist and Object-Oriented Analysis of the Daymet TMAX Climate Summaries for North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, C. P.

2017-12-01

The scientific materialist worldview, what Peter Unger refers to as the Scientiphical worldview, or Scientiphicalism, has been utterly catastrophic for mesoscale objects in general, but, with its closely associated twentieth-century formal logic, this has been especially true for notoriously vague things like climate change, coastlines, mountains and dust storms. That is, any so-called representations or references ultimately suffer the same ontological demise as their referents, no matter how well-defined their boundaries may in fact be. Against this reductionist metaphysics, climatic objects are discretized within three separate ontologically realist systems, Graham Harman's object-oriented philosophy, or ontology (OOO), Markus Gabriel's ontology of fields of sense (OFS) and Tristan Garcia's two systems and new order of time, so as to make an ontological case for any geographically scalar object, beginning with pixels, as well as any notoriously vague thing they are said to represent. Four-month overlapping TMAX seasonals were first developed from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Daymet climate temperature maximum (TMAX) monthly summaries (1980-2016) for North America and segmented within Trimble's eCognition Developer using the simple and widely familiar quadtree algorithm with a scale parameter of four, in this example. The regression coefficient was then calculated for the resulting 37-year climatic objects and an equally simple classification was applied. The same segmentation and classification was applied to the Daymet annual summaries, as well, for comparison. As was expected, the mean warming and cooling trends are lowest for the annual summary TMAX climatic objects. However, the Fall (SOND) season has the largest and smallest areas of warming and cooling, respectively, and the highest mean trend for warming objects. Conversely, Spring (MAMJ) has the largest and smallest areas undergoing cooling and warming, respectively. Finally, Summer (JJAS) has the highest mean trend for cooling objects. Not only do these highly heterogeneous and variable patterns become readily apparent with each set of objects, but so do any possible anomalies that might warrant further investigation.

Mapping Climate Change Vulnerabilities to Infectious Diseases in Europe

PubMed Central

Suk, Jonathan E.; Estevez, Virginia; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lindgren, Elisabet

2011-01-01

Background: The incidence, outbreak frequency, and distribution of many infectious diseases are generally expected to change as a consequence of climate change, yet there is limited regional information available to guide decision making. Objective: We surveyed government officials designated as Competent Bodies for Scientific Advice concerning infectious diseases to examine the degree to which they are concerned about potential effects of climate change on infectious diseases, as well as their perceptions of institutional capacities in their respective countries. Methods: In 2007 and 2009/2010, national infectious disease experts from 30 European Economic Area countries were surveyed about recent and projected infectious disease patterns in relation to climate change in their countries and the national capacity to cope with them. Results: A large majority of respondents agreed that climate change would affect vector-borne (86% of country representatives), food-borne (70%), water-borne (68%), and rodent-borne (68%) diseases in their countries. In addition, most indicated that institutional improvements are needed for ongoing surveillance programs (83%), collaboration with the veterinary sector (69%), management of animal disease outbreaks (66%), national monitoring and control of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (64%), health services during an infectious disease outbreak (61%), and diagnostic support during an epidemic (54%). Conclusions: Expert responses were generally consistent with the peer-reviewed literature regarding the relationship between climate change and vector- and water-borne diseases, but were less so for food-borne diseases. Shortcomings in institutional capacity to manage climate change vulnerability, identified in this assessment, should be addressed in impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments. PMID:22113877

Effective Engagement of Hostile Audiences on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denning, S.

2012-12-01

Communicating effectively about climate change can be very frustrating because hostility to climate science is rooted in deeply held beliefs rather than facts. Opposition can be more effectively countered by respecting ideological objections than by aggressive insistence on acceptance of consensus evidence. When presented with a stark choice between sacred beliefs and factual evidence, social science research shows that nearly everyone will choose the latter. Rational argument from authority is often the weakest approach in such situations. Climate change is Simple, Serious, and Solvable. Effective communication of these three key ideas can succeed when the science argument is carefully framed to avoid attack of the audience's ethical identity. Simple arguments from common sense and everyday experience are more successful than data. Serious consequences to values that resonate with the audience can be avoided by solutions that don't threaten those values.

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions

PubMed Central

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2016-01-01

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems – dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms – are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning. PMID:27633953

Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions.

PubMed

Thom, Dominik; Rammer, Werner; Seidl, Rupert

2017-01-01

The rates of anthropogenic climate change substantially exceed those at which forest ecosystems - dominated by immobile, long-lived organisms - are able to adapt. The resulting maladaptation of forests has potentially detrimental effects on ecosystem functioning. Furthermore, as many forest-dwelling species are highly dependent on the prevailing tree species, a delayed response of the latter to a changing climate can contribute to an extinction debt and mask climate-induced biodiversity loss. However, climate change will likely also intensify forest disturbances. Here, we tested the hypothesis that disturbances foster the reorganization of ecosystems and catalyze the adaptation of forest composition to climate change. Our specific objectives were (i) to quantify the rate of autonomous forest adaptation to climate change, (ii) examine the role of disturbance in the adaptation process, and (iii) investigate spatial differences in climate-induced species turnover in an unmanaged mountain forest landscape (Kalkalpen National Park, Austria). Simulations with a process-based forest landscape model were performed for 36 unique combinations of climate and disturbance scenarios over 1000 years. We found that climate change strongly favored European beech and oak species (currently prevailing in mid- to low-elevation areas), with novel species associations emerging on the landscape. Yet, it took between 357 and 706 years before the landscape attained a dynamic equilibrium with the climate system. Disturbances generally catalyzed adaptation and decreased the time needed to attain equilibrium by up to 211 years. However, while increasing disturbance frequency and severity accelerated adaptation, increasing disturbance size had the opposite effect. Spatial analyses suggest that particularly the lowest and highest elevation areas will be hotspots of future species change. We conclude that the growing maladaptation of forests to climate and the long lead times of autonomous adaptation need to be considered more explicitly in the ongoing efforts to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services provisioning. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Bannayan, Mohammad; Paymard, Parisa; Ashraf, Batool

2016-10-01

Climate change can affect the productivity and geographic distribution of crops. Therefore, evaluation of adaptive management options is crucial in dealing with negative impacts of climate change. The objectives of this study were to simulate the impacts of climate change on maize production in the north-east of Iran. Moreover, vulnerability index which indicated that how much of the crop yield loss is related to the drought was computed for each location to identify where adaptation and mitigation strategies are effective. Different sowing dates were also applied as an adaptation approach to decrease the negative impacts of climate change in study area. The results showed that the maize yield would decline during the 21st century from -2.6% to -82% at all study locations in comparison with the baseline. The result of vulnerability index also indicated that using the adaptation strategies could be effective in all of the study areas. Using different sowing dates as an adaptation approach showed that delaying the sowing date will be advantageous in order to obtain higher yield in all study locations in future. This study provided insight regarding the climate change impacts on maize production and the efficacy of adaptation strategies. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Comparing Climate Change and Species Invasions as Drivers of Coldwater Fish Population Extirpations

PubMed Central

Sharma, Sapna; Vander Zanden, M. Jake; Magnuson, John J.; Lyons, John

2011-01-01

Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046–2065 and 2081–2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25–70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change. PMID:21860661

Comparing climate change and species invasions as drivers of coldwater fish population extirpations.

PubMed

Sharma, Sapna; Vander Zanden, M Jake; Magnuson, John J; Lyons, John

2011-01-01

Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) on cisco (Coregonus artedii) population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25-70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change.

Introduction to the Symposium: Parasites and Pests in Motion: Biology, Biodiversity and Climate Change.

PubMed

Williams, Jason D; Boyko, Christopher B

2016-10-01

Although climate change can cause extreme alterations to ecosystems, only limited research has investigated how altered physical conditions (e.g., warming, extreme temperature events, sea level rise, ocean acidification, and altered precipitation) influence species interactions. In particular, the interplay between host and parasites in such a changing world is in need of study. Our objective in organizing this symposium was to bring together researchers working on a wide variety of natural enemies (parasites, pathogens, and pests), to exchange knowledge on how aspects of global climate change may alter the distribution and ecology of these organisms and their hosts. It is our intention that the symposium and the resulting articles will foster more accurate modeling of and predictions about the impacts of climate change on the biology and ecology of natural enemies and their hosts. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Integrative and Comparative Biology. All rights reserved. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Changes in Intense Precipitation Events in West Africa and the central U.S. under Global Warming

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, Kerry H.; Vizy, Edward

The purpose of the proposed project is to improve our understanding of the physical processes and large-scale connectivity of changes in intense precipitation events (high rainfall rates) under global warming in West Africa and the central U.S., including relationships with low-frequency modes of variability. This is in response to the requested subject area #2 “simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate … to better quantify the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events under climate change and elucidate the role of low frequency climate variability in modulating extremes.” We will use a regional climate model and emphasize an understandingmore » of the physical processes that lead to an intensification of rainfall. The project objectives are as follows: 1. Understand the processes responsible for simulated changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency over West Africa and the Central U.S. associated with greenhouse gas-induced global warming 2. Understand the relationship between changes in warm-season rainfall intensity and frequency, which generally occur on regional space scales, and the larger-scale global warming signal by considering modifications of low-frequency modes of variability. 3. Relate changes simulated on regional space scales to global-scale theories of how and why atmospheric moisture levels and rainfall should change as climate warms.« less

Fostering Climate Change Literacy Through Rural-Urban Collaborations and GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boger, R. A.; Low, R.; Gorokhovich, Y.; Mandryk, C.

2012-12-01

Three universities, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL), Brooklyn College, and Lehman College, shared expertise and resources to expand the spectrum of climate change topics offered at these institutions. Through this collaboration, four independent but linked modules that incorporate geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing desktop and web-based tools and resources (e.g., NASA, NOAA, USGS, and a variety of universities and organizations) have been developed for use by instructors in all three institutions. Module 1 theme is an introduction to sustainability, climate, with an introduction to remote sensing and online GIS tools. The theme for Module 2 is water resources while Module 3 explores local meteorological data and global climate change models. The last module focuses on food production and independent research building on the urban farm movement in New York City and the agricultural stronghold of Nebraska. The hybrid online and face-face course, Global Climate Change, Food Security, and Local Sustainability, was piloted Fall 2012 in a jointly-taught course offered through UNL and Brooklyn College. The online portion was offered through the CAMEL Climate Change website to foster interactions between the rural Nebraska and urban New York City students. A major objective of the course materials is to foster rural-urban student exchanges while motivating students to make connections between climate change and the potential impacts on health, food, and water in their local communities, the nation and around the world. The research component of the project focuses on understanding the importance of spatial literacy in climate change understanding, and is supported by assessment instruments designed specifically for this course. In addition, the formal evaluation will determine whether our rural-urban, local-global approach will empower students to better understand the causes and impacts of climate change.

Climate change impacts on food system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cai, X.; Zhu, T.

2014-12-01

Food system includes biophysical factors (climate, land and water), human environments (production technologies and food consumption, distribution and marketing), as well as the dynamic interactions within them. Climate change affects agriculture and food systems in various ways. Agricultural production can be influenced directly by climatic factors such as mean temperature rising, change in rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme events. Eventually, climate change could cause shift of arable land, alteration of water availability, abnormal fluctuation of food prices, and increase of people at risk of malnutrition. This work aims to evaluate how climate change would affect agricultural production biophysically and how these effects would propagate to social factors at the global level. In order to model the complex interactions between the natural and social components, a Global Optimization model of Agricultural Land and Water resources (GOALW) is applied to the analysis. GOALW includes various demands of human society (food, feed, other), explicit production module, and irrigation water availability constraint. The objective of GOALW is to maximize global social welfare (consumers' surplus and producers' surplus).Crop-wise irrigation water use in different regions around the world are determined by the model; marginal value of water (MVW) can be obtained from the model, which implies how much additional welfare benefit could be gained with one unit increase in local water availability. Using GOALW, we will analyze two questions in this presentation: 1) how climate change will alter irrigation requirements and how the social system would buffer that by price/demand adjustment; 2) how will the MVW be affected by climate change and what are the controlling factors. These results facilitate meaningful insights for investment and adaptation strategies in sustaining world's food security under climate change.

Cumulative effects of climate and landscape change drive spatial distribution of Rocky Mountain wolverine (Gulo gulo L.).

PubMed

Heim, Nicole; Fisher, Jason T; Clevenger, Anthony; Paczkowski, John; Volpe, John

2017-11-01

Contemporary landscapes are subject to a multitude of human-derived stressors. Effects of such stressors are increasingly realized by population declines and large-scale extirpation of taxa worldwide. Most notably, cumulative effects of climate and landscape change can limit species' local adaptation and dispersal capabilities, thereby reducing realized niche space and range extent. Resolving the cumulative effects of multiple stressors on species persistence is a pressing challenge in ecology, especially for declining species. For example, wolverines ( Gulo gulo L.) persist on only 40% of their historic North American range. While climate change has been shown to be a mechanism of range retractions, anthropogenic landscape disturbance has been recently implicated. We hypothesized these two interact to effect declines. We surveyed wolverine occurrence using camera trapping and genetic tagging at 104 sites at the wolverine range edge, spanning a 15,000 km 2 gradient of climate, topographic, anthropogenic, and biotic variables. We used occupancy and generalized linear models to disentangle the factors explaining wolverine distribution. Persistent spring snow pack-expected to decrease with climate change-was a significant predictor, but so was anthropogenic landscape change. Canid mesocarnivores, which we hypothesize are competitors supported by anthropogenic landscape change, had comparatively weaker effect. Wolverine population declines and range shifts likely result from climate change and landscape change operating in tandem. We contend that similar results are likely for many species and that research that simultaneously examines climate change, landscape change, and the biotic landscape is warranted. Ecology research and species conservation plans that address these interactions are more likely to meet their objectives.

Climate Change and Human Health Impacts in the United States: An Update on the Results of the U.S. National Assessment

PubMed Central

Ebi, Kristie L.; Mills, David M.; Smith, Joel B.; Grambsch, Anne

2006-01-01

The health sector component of the first U.S. National Assessment, published in 2000, synthesized the anticipated health impacts of climate variability and change for five categories of health outcomes: impacts attributable to temperature, extreme weather events (e.g., storms and floods), air pollution, water- and food-borne diseases, and vector- and rodent-borne diseases. The Health Sector Assessment (HSA) concluded that climate variability and change are likely to increase morbidity and mortality risks for several climate-sensitive health outcomes, with the net impact uncertain. The objective of this study was to update the first HSA based on recent publications that address the potential impacts of climate variability and change in the United States for the five health outcome categories. The literature published since the first HSA supports the initial conclusions, with new data refining quantitative exposure–response relationships for several health end points, particularly for extreme heat events and air pollution. The United States continues to have a very high capacity to plan for and respond to climate change, although relatively little progress has been noted in the literature on implementing adaptive strategies and measures. Large knowledge gaps remain, resulting in a substantial need for additional research to improve our understanding of how weather and climate, both directly and indirectly, can influence human health. Filling these knowledge gaps will help better define the potential health impacts of climate change and identify specific public health adaptations to increase resilience. PMID:16966082

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Mark J.; Andrews, Timothy; Bodas-Salcedo, Alejandro; Bony, Sandrine; Bretherton, Christopher S.; Chadwick, Robin; Chepfer, Hélène; Douville, Hervé; Good, Peter; Kay, Jennifer E.; Klein, Stephen A.; Marchand, Roger; Medeiros, Brian; Pier Siebesma, A.; Skinner, Christopher B.; Stevens, Bjorn; Tselioudis, George; Tsushima, Yoko; Watanabe, Masahiro

2017-01-01

The primary objective of CFMIP is to inform future assessments of cloud feedbacks through improved understanding of cloud-climate feedback mechanisms and better evaluation of cloud processes and cloud feedbacks in climate models. However, the CFMIP approach is also increasingly being used to understand other aspects of climate change, and so a second objective has now been introduced, to improve understanding of circulation, regional-scale precipitation, and non-linear changes. CFMIP is supporting ongoing model inter-comparison activities by coordinating a hierarchy of targeted experiments for CMIP6, along with a set of cloud-related output diagnostics. CFMIP contributes primarily to addressing the CMIP6 questions How does the Earth system respond to forcing? and What are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases? and supports the activities of the WCRP Grand Challenge on Clouds, Circulation and Climate Sensitivity.A compact set of Tier 1 experiments is proposed for CMIP6 to address this question: (1) what are the physical mechanisms underlying the range of cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments predicted by climate models, and which models have the most credible cloud feedbacks? Additional Tier 2 experiments are proposed to address the following questions. (2) Are cloud feedbacks consistent for climate cooling and warming, and if not, why? (3) How do cloud-radiative effects impact the structure, the strength and the variability of the general atmospheric circulation in present and future climates? (4) How do responses in the climate system due to changes in solar forcing differ from changes due to CO2, and is the response sensitive to the sign of the forcing? (5) To what extent is regional climate change per CO2 doubling state-dependent (non-linear), and why? (6) Are climate feedbacks during the 20th century different to those acting on long-term climate change and climate sensitivity? (7) How do regional climate responses (e.g. in precipitation) and their uncertainties in coupled models arise from the combination of different aspects of CO2 forcing and sea surface warming?CFMIP also proposes a number of additional model outputs in the CMIP DECK, CMIP6 Historical and CMIP6 CFMIP experiments, including COSP simulator outputs and process diagnostics to address the following questions.

1. How well do clouds and other relevant variables simulated by models agree with observations?

2. What physical processes and mechanisms are important for a credible simulation of clouds, cloud feedbacks and cloud adjustments in climate models?

3. Which models have the most credible representations of processes relevant to the simulation of clouds?

4. How do clouds and their changes interact with other elements of the climate system?

Innoversity in knowledge-for-action and adaptation to climate change: the first steps of an 'evidence-based climatic health' transfrontier training program.

PubMed

Lapaige, Véronique; Essiembre, Hélène

2010-01-01

It has become increasingly clear to the international scientific community that climate change is real and has important consequences for human health. To meet these new challenges, the World Health Organization recommends reinforcing the adaptive capacity of health systems. One of the possible avenues in this respect is to promote awareness and knowledge translation in climatic health, at both the local and global scales. Within such perspective, two major themes have emerged in the field of public health research: 1) the development of advanced training adapted to 'global environment' change and to the specific needs of various groups of actors (doctors, nurses, public health practitioners, health care managers, public service managers, local communities, etc) and 2) the development of strategies for implementing research results and applying various types of evidence to the management of public health issues affected by climate change. Progress on these two fronts will depend on maximum innovation in transdisciplinary and transsectoral collaborations. The general purpose of this article is to present the program of a new research and learning chair designed for this double set of developmental objectives - a chair that emphasizes 'innoversity' (the dynamic relationship between innovation and diversity) and 'transfrontier ecolearning for adaptive actions'. The Écoapprentissages, santé mentale et climat collaborative research chair (University of Montreal and Quebec National Public Health Institute) based in Montreal is a center for 'transdisciplinary research' on the transfrontier knowledge-for-action that can aid adaptation of the public health sector, the public mental health sector, and the public service sector to climate change, as well as a center for complex collaborations on evidence-based climatic health 'training'. This program-focused article comprises two main sections. The first section presents the 'general' and 'specific contexts' in which the chair emerged. The 'general context' pertains to the health-related challenge of finding ways to integrate, transfer, and implement knowledge, a particularly pointed challenge in Canada. The 'specific context' refers to the emerging research field of adaptation of public health to climate change. In the second section, the characteristics of the research chair are more extensively detailed (the vision of 'innoversity' and ' transfrontier knowledge-for-action,' the approach of shared responsibility and complex collaboration, objectives, and major axes of research). We conclude with a call for complex collaboration toward knowledge-for-action in public health services/mental health services/public services' adaptation to climate change: this call is aimed at individual and institutional actors in the North and South/West and East concerned by these issues.

Living with a Star: New Opportunities in Sun-Climate Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eddy, John Allen

2003-01-01

Enormous advances have been made in the last quarter century in all of these needed areas, covering the two essential halves of the Sun-Climate question: in what we know of solar variations and, equally important, in what we know of the climate system and of climatic changes. These research achievements allow us to examine all aspects of the question more directly and quantitatively than was ever possible before, and in the brighter light and more objective context of other known or suspected climate change mechanisms, including human-induced global greenhouse warming. Brief summaries of present status and current understanding are given below for nine facets of Sun-Climate science in which major progress has been made in recent years. At the same time it will be seen that in every instance, significant elements of uncertainty still remain, Some of the most important of these unanswered questions are considered later, in Section IV.

Exploring objective climate classification for the Himalayan arc and adjacent regions using gridded data sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N.; Blenkinsop, S.; Fowler, H. J.

2015-05-01

A three-step climate classification was applied to a spatial domain covering the Himalayan arc and adjacent plains regions using input data from four global meteorological reanalyses. Input variables were selected based on an understanding of the climatic drivers of regional water resource variability and crop yields. Principal component analysis (PCA) of those variables and k-means clustering on the PCA outputs revealed a reanalysis ensemble consensus for eight macro-climate zones. Spatial statistics of input variables for each zone revealed consistent, distinct climatologies. This climate classification approach has potential for enhancing assessment of climatic influences on water resources and food security as well as for characterising the skill and bias of gridded data sets, both meteorological reanalyses and climate models, for reproducing subregional climatologies. Through their spatial descriptors (area, geographic centroid, elevation mean range), climate classifications also provide metrics, beyond simple changes in individual variables, with which to assess the magnitude of projected climate change. Such sophisticated metrics are of particular interest for regions, including mountainous areas, where natural and anthropogenic systems are expected to be sensitive to incremental climate shifts.

Combining landscape variables and species traits can improve the utility of climate change vulnerability assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nadeau, Christopher P.; Fuller, Angela K.

2016-01-01

Conservation organizations worldwide are investing in climate change vulnerability assessments. Most vulnerability assessment methods focus on either landscape features or species traits that can affect a species vulnerability to climate change. However, landscape features and species traits likely interact to affect vulnerability. We compare a landscape-based assessment, a trait-based assessment, and an assessment that combines landscape variables and species traits for 113 species of birds, herpetofauna, and mammals in the northeastern United States. Our aim is to better understand which species traits and landscape variables have the largest influence on assessment results and which types of vulnerability assessments are most useful for different objectives. Species traits were most important for determining which species will be most vulnerable to climate change. The sensitivity of species to dispersal barriers and the species average natal dispersal distance were the most important traits. Landscape features were most important for determining where species will be most vulnerable because species were most vulnerable in areas where multiple landscape features combined to increase vulnerability, regardless of species traits. The interaction between landscape variables and species traits was important when determining how to reduce climate change vulnerability. For example, an assessment that combines information on landscape connectivity, climate change velocity, and natal dispersal distance suggests that increasing landscape connectivity may not reduce the vulnerability of many species. Assessments that include landscape features and species traits will likely be most useful in guiding conservation under climate change.

Water availability in +2°C and +4°C worlds.

PubMed

Fung, Fai; Lopez, Ana; New, Mark

2011-01-13

While the parties to the UNFCCC agreed in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord that a 2°C global warming over pre-industrial levels should be avoided, current commitments on greenhouse gas emissions reductions from these same parties will lead to a 50 : 50 chance of warming greater than 3.5°C. Here, we evaluate the differences in impacts and adaptation issues for water resources in worlds corresponding to the policy objective (+2°C) and possible reality (+4°C). We simulate the differences in impacts on surface run-off and water resource availability using a global hydrological model driven by ensembles of climate models with global temperature increases of 2°C and 4°C. We combine these with UN-based population growth scenarios to explore the relative importance of population change and climate change for water availability. We find that the projected changes in global surface run-off from the ensemble show an increase in spatial coherence and magnitude for a +4°C world compared with a +2°C one. In a +2°C world, population growth in most large river basins tends to override climate change as a driver of water stress, while in a +4°C world, climate change becomes more dominant, even compensating for population effects where climate change increases run-off. However, in some basins where climate change has positive effects, the seasonality of surface run-off becomes increasingly amplified in a +4°C climate.

Climate Change and Food Security: Health Impacts in Developed Countries

PubMed Central

Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Bentham, Graham; Boxall, Alistair B.A.; Draper, Alizon; Fairweather-Tait, Susan; Hulme, Mike; Hunter, Paul R.; Nichols, Gordon; Waldron, Keith W.

2012-01-01

Background: Anthropogenic climate change will affect global food production, with uncertain consequences for human health in developed countries. Objectives: We investigated the potential impact of climate change on food security (nutrition and food safety) and the implications for human health in developed countries. Methods: Expert input and structured literature searches were conducted and synthesized to produce overall assessments of the likely impacts of climate change on global food production and recommendations for future research and policy changes. Results: Increasing food prices may lower the nutritional quality of dietary intakes, exacerbate obesity, and amplify health inequalities. Altered conditions for food production may result in emerging pathogens, new crop and livestock species, and altered use of pesticides and veterinary medicines, and affect the main transfer mechanisms through which contaminants move from the environment into food. All these have implications for food safety and the nutritional content of food. Climate change mitigation may increase consumption of foods whose production reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Impacts may include reduced red meat consumption (with positive effects on saturated fat, but negative impacts on zinc and iron intake) and reduced winter fruit and vegetable consumption. Developed countries have complex structures in place that may be used to adapt to the food safety consequences of climate change, although their effectiveness will vary between countries, and the ability to respond to nutritional challenges is less certain. Conclusions: Climate change will have notable impacts upon nutrition and food safety in developed countries, but further research is necessary to accurately quantify these impacts. Uncertainty about future impacts, coupled with evidence that climate change may lead to more variable food quality, emphasizes the need to maintain and strengthen existing structures and policies to regulate food production, monitor food quality and safety, and respond to nutritional and safety issues that arise. PMID:23124134

Green infrastructure as a climate change adaptation policy intervention: muddying the waters or clearing a path to a more secure future?

PubMed

Sussams, L W; Sheate, W R; Eales, R P

2015-01-01

As dangerous climate change looms, decision-makers are increasingly realising that societies will need to adapt to this threat as well as mitigate against it. Green infrastructure (GI) is increasingly seen as an ideal climate change adaptation policy response. However, with this research the authors identify a number of crucial knowledge gaps within GI and, consequently, call for caution and for a concerted effort to understand the concept and what it can really deliver. GI has risen to prominence in a range of policy areas in large part due to its perceived ability to produce multiple benefits simultaneously, termed 'multifunctionality'. This characteristic strengthens the political appeal of the policy in question at a time when environmental issues have slipped down political agendas. Multifunctionality, however, brings its own set of new challenges that should be evaluated fully before the policy is implemented. This research takes important first steps to developing a critical understanding of what is achievable within GI's capacity. It focuses on one of GI's single objectives, namely climate change adaptation, to focus the analysis of how current obstacles in applying GI's multifunctionality could lead to the ineffective delivery of its objective. By drawing on expert opinion from government officials and representatives from the private, non-government organisation (NGO) and academic sectors, this research questions GI's ability to be effectively 'multifunctional' with an inconsistent definition at its core, deficiencies in its understanding and conflicts within its governance. In light of these observations, the authors then reflect on the judiciousness of applying GI to achieve the other objectives it has also been charged with delivering. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The interplay of climate and land use change affects the distribution of EU bumblebees.

PubMed

Marshall, Leon; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C; Rasmont, Pierre; Vereecken, Nicolas J; Dvorak, Libor; Fitzpatrick, Una; Francis, Frédéric; Neumayer, Johann; Ødegaard, Frode; Paukkunen, Juho P T; Pawlikowski, Tadeusz; Reemer, Menno; Roberts, Stuart P M; Straka, Jakub; Vray, Sarah; Dendoncker, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Bumblebees in Europe have been in steady decline since the 1900s. This decline is expected to continue with climate change as the main driver. However, at the local scale, land use and land cover (LULC) change strongly affects the occurrence of bumblebees. At present, LULC change is rarely included in models of future distributions of species. This study's objective is to compare the roles of dynamic LULC change and climate change on the projected distribution patterns of 48 European bumblebee species for three change scenarios until 2100 at the scales of Europe, and Belgium, Netherlands and Luxembourg (BENELUX). We compared three types of models: (1) only climate covariates, (2) climate and static LULC covariates and (3) climate and dynamic LULC covariates. The climate and LULC change scenarios used in the models include, extreme growth applied strategy (GRAS), business as might be usual and sustainable European development goals. We analysed model performance, range gain/loss and the shift in range limits for all bumblebees. Overall, model performance improved with the introduction of LULC covariates. Dynamic models projected less range loss and gain than climate-only projections, and greater range loss and gain than static models. Overall, there is considerable variation in species responses and effects were most pronounced at the BENELUX scale. The majority of species were predicted to lose considerable range, particularly under the extreme growth scenario (GRAS; overall mean: 64% ± 34). Model simulations project a number of local extinctions and considerable range loss at the BENELUX scale (overall mean: 56% ± 39). Therefore, we recommend species-specific modelling to understand how LULC and climate interact in future modelling. The efficacy of dynamic LULC change should improve with higher thematic and spatial resolution. Nevertheless, current broad scale representations of change in major land use classes impact modelled future distribution patterns. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

2014-05-01

Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get an integrated analysis across different spatial scales. To fulfil the objectives of the ClimAware project, the following modelling methodology was implemented. Starting from a European modelling approach of water availability and use based on the WaterGAP3 model, the changes in the hydrologic regimes and water use of different sectors were analysed. Subsequently three case studies were used to investigate the impacts of CC at a regional scale. Regional models from three different countries and focusing on three types of water management issues were developed: • Hydromorphology (Eder basin, Germany): By using different scenarios, the influence of CC on the hydromorphological characteristics of the River Weser according to the WFD was evaluated and proposals for implementation were given. The objective was to examine, on typical river sections, how the WFD objectives can be implemented under CC constraints. • Dam management (Seine basin, France): Water management on the River Seine for water supply and flood alleviation is partly based on the management of artificial reservoirs. The case study developed scenarios linking the impact of CC on water resources and the expected change on the uses and on the management of the system. • Agricultural water use (Apulia region, Italy): In this region, economic and demographic changes cause an increase in the demand for good-quality municipal and industrial water. Besides, changes in the agricultural practices increase the demand for water in the agricultural sector. Since water is scarce in this region, the study focuses on the agricultural sector, which has the largest water saving potential. The final assessment comprises a cross-scale integration between the European and regional modelling frameworks in order to facilitate knowledge transfer and to help establishing sustainable and integrated water resources management plans.

Expertly validated models and phylogenetically-controlled analysis suggests responses to climate change are related to species traits in the order lagomorpha.

PubMed

Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W Ian; Reid, Neil

2015-01-01

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species' bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed 'modellable' within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov's Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions.

Expertly Validated Models and Phylogenetically-Controlled Analysis Suggests Responses to Climate Change Are Related to Species Traits in the Order Lagomorpha

PubMed Central

Leach, Katie; Kelly, Ruth; Cameron, Alison; Montgomery, W. Ian; Reid, Neil

2015-01-01

Climate change during the past five decades has impacted significantly on natural ecosystems, and the rate of current climate change is of great concern among conservation biologists. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) have been used widely to project changes in species’ bioclimatic envelopes under future climate scenarios. Here, we aimed to advance this technique by assessing future changes in the bioclimatic envelopes of an entire mammalian order, the Lagomorpha, using a novel framework for model validation based jointly on subjective expert evaluation and objective model evaluation statistics. SDMs were built using climatic, topographical, and habitat variables for all 87 lagomorph species under past and current climate scenarios. Expert evaluation and Kappa values were used to validate past and current models and only those deemed ‘modellable’ within our framework were projected under future climate scenarios (58 species). Phylogenetically-controlled regressions were used to test whether species traits correlated with predicted responses to climate change. Climate change is likely to impact more than two-thirds of lagomorph species, with leporids (rabbits, hares, and jackrabbits) likely to undertake poleward shifts with little overall change in range extent, whilst pikas are likely to show extreme shifts to higher altitudes associated with marked range declines, including the likely extinction of Kozlov’s Pika (Ochotona koslowi). Smaller-bodied species were more likely to exhibit range contractions and elevational increases, but showing little poleward movement, and fecund species were more likely to shift latitudinally and elevationally. Our results suggest that species traits may be important indicators of future climate change and we believe multi-species approaches, as demonstrated here, are likely to lead to more effective mitigation measures and conservation management. We strongly advocate studies minimising data gaps in our knowledge of the Order, specifically collecting more specimens for biodiversity archives and targeting data deficient geographic regions. PMID:25874407

Multi-model approach to assess the impact of climate change on runoff

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dams, J.; Nossent, J.; Senbeta, T. B.; Willems, P.; Batelaan, O.

2015-10-01

The assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology is subject to uncertainties related to the climate change scenarios, stochastic uncertainties of the hydrological model and structural uncertainties of the hydrological model. This paper focuses on the contribution of structural uncertainty of hydrological models to the overall uncertainty of the climate change impact assessment. To quantify the structural uncertainty of hydrological models, four physically based hydrological models (SWAT, PRMS and a semi- and fully distributed version of the WetSpa model) are set up for a catchment in Belgium. Each model is calibrated using four different objective functions. Three climate change scenarios with a high, mean and low hydrological impact are statistically perturbed from a large ensemble of climate change scenarios and are used to force the hydrological models. This methodology allows assessing and comparing the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios with the uncertainty introduced by the hydrological model structure. Results show that the hydrological model structure introduces a large uncertainty on both the average monthly discharge and the extreme peak and low flow predictions under the climate change scenarios. For the low impact climate change scenario, the uncertainty range of the mean monthly runoff is comparable to the range of these runoff values in the reference period. However, for the mean and high impact scenarios, this range is significantly larger. The uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios is larger than the uncertainty due to the hydrological model structure for the low and mean hydrological impact scenarios, but the reverse is true for the high impact climate change scenario. The mean and high impact scenarios project increasing peak discharges, while the low impact scenario projects increasing peak discharges only for peak events with return periods larger than 1.6 years. All models suggest for all scenarios a decrease of the lowest flows, except for the SWAT model with the mean hydrological impact climate change scenario. The results of this study indicate that besides the uncertainty introduced by the climate change scenarios also the hydrological model structure uncertainty should be taken into account in the assessment of climate change impacts on hydrology. To make it more straightforward and transparent to include model structural uncertainty in hydrological impact studies, there is a need for hydrological modelling tools that allow flexible structures and methods to validate model structures in their ability to assess impacts under unobserved future climatic conditions.

Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

2013-01-01

There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

Assessing present and future climate changes in Siberia and their regional socioeconomic consequences using a web-based big data geoprocessing platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, V. A.; Gordov, E. P.

2016-12-01

Recently initiated collaborative research project is presented. Its main objective is to develop high spatial and temporal resolution datasets for studying the ongoing and future climate changes in Siberia, caused by global and regional processes in the atmosphere and the ocean. This goal will be achieved by using a set of regional and global climate models for the analysis of the mechanisms of climate change and quantitative assessment of changes in key climate variables, including analysis of extreme weather and climate events and their dynamics, evaluation of the frequency, amplitude and the risks caused by the extreme events in the region. The main practical application of the project is to provide experts, stakeholders and the public with quantitative information about the future climate change in Siberia obtained on the base of a computational web- geoinformation platform. The thematic platform will be developed in order to facilitate processing and analysis of high resolution georeferenced datasets that will be delivered and made available to scientific community, policymakes and other end users as a result of the project. Software packages will be developed to implement calculation of various climatological indicators in order to characterize and diagnose climate change and its dynamics, as well as to archive results in digital form of electronic maps (GIS layers). By achieving these goals the project will provide science based tools necessary for developing mitigation measures for adapting to climate change and reducing negative impact on the population and infrastructure of the region. Financial support of the computational web- geoinformation platform prototype development by the RF Ministry of Education and Science under Agreement 14.613.21.0037 (RFMEFI61315X0037) is acknowledged.

Multi objective climate change impact assessment using multi downscaled climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rana, Arun; Moradkhani, Hamid

2016-04-01

Global Climate Models (GCMs) are often used to downscale the climatic parameters on a regional and global scale. In the present study, we have analyzed the changes in precipitation and temperature for future scenario period of 2070-2099 with respect to historical period of 1970-2000 from a set of statistically downscaled GCM projections for Columbia River Basin (CRB). Analysis is performed using 2 different statistically downscaled climate projections namely the Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) technique generated at Portland State University and the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) technique, generated at University of Idaho, totaling to 40 different scenarios. Analysis is performed on spatial, temporal and frequency based parameters in the future period at a scale of 1/16th of degree for entire CRB region. Results have indicated in varied degree of spatial change pattern for the entire Columbia River Basin, especially western part of the basin. At temporal scales, winter precipitation has higher variability than summer and vice-versa for temperature. Frequency analysis provided insights into possible explanation to changes in precipitation.

Enhancing the Extreme Climate Index (ECI) to monitor climate extremes for an index-based insurance scheme across Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Helmschrot, J.; Malherbe, J.; Chamunorwa, M.; Muthige, M.; Petitta, M.; Calmanti, S.; Cucchi, M.; Syroka, J.; Iyahen, E.; Engelbrecht, F.

2017-12-01

Climate services are a key component of National Adaptation Plan (NAP) processes, which require the analysis of current climate conditions, future climate change scenarios and the identification of adaptation strategies, including the capacity to finance and implement effective adaptation options. The Extreme Climate Facility (XCF) proposed by the African Risk Capacity (ARC) developed a climate index insurance scheme, which is based on the Extreme Climate Index (ECI): an objective, multi-hazard index capable of tracking changes in the frequency or magnitude of extreme weather events, thus indicating possible shifts to a new climate regime in various regions. The main hazards covered by ECI are extreme dry, wet and heat events, with the possibility of adding other region-specific risk events. The ECI is standardized across broad geographical regions, so that extreme events occurring under different climatic regimes in Africa can be compared. Initially developed by an Italian company specialized in Climate Services, research is now conducted at the CSIR and SASSCAL, to verify and further develop the ECI for application in southern African countries, through a project initiated by the World Food Programme (WFP) and ARC. The paper will present findings on the most appropriate definitions of extremely wet and dry conditions in Africa, in terms of their impact across a multitude of sub-regional climates of the African continent. Findings of a verification analysis of the ECI, as determined through vegetation monitoring data and the SASSCAL weather station network will be discussed. Changes in the ECI under climate change will subsequently be projected, using detailed regional projections generated by the CSIR and through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). This work will be concluded by the development of a web-based climate service informing African Stakeholders on climate extremes.

The precautionary principle in fisheries management under climate change: How the international legal framework formulate it?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Latifah, E.; Imanullah, M. N.

2018-03-01

One of the objectives of fisheries management is to reach long-term sustainable benefits of the fish stocks while reducing the risk of severe or irreversible damage to the marine ecosystem. Achieving this objective needs, the good scientific knowledge and understanding on fisheries management including scientific data and information on the fish stock, fishing catch, distribution, migration, the proportion of mature fish, the mortality rate, reproduction as well as the knowledge on the impact of fishing on dependent and associated species and other species belonging to the same ecosystem, and further the impact of climate change and climate variability on the fish stocks and marine ecosystem. Lack of this scientific knowledge may lead to high levels of uncertainty. The precautionary principle is one of the basic environmental principles needed in overcoming this problem. An essence of this principle is that, in facing the serious risk as a result of the limited scientific knowledge or the absence of complete evidence of harm, it should not prevent the precautionary measures in minimizing risks and protecting the fish stocks and ecosystem. This study aims to examine how the precautionary principle in fisheries management be formulated into the international legal framework, especially under the climate change framework.

Historical analysis of riparian vegetation change in response to shifting management objectives on the Middle Rio Grande

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petrakis, Roy; van Leeuwen, Willem J.D.; Villarreal, Miguel; Tashjian, Paul; Dello Russo, Regina; Scott, Christopher A.

2017-01-01

Riparian ecosystems are valuable to the ecological and human communities that depend on them. Over the past century, they have been subject to shifting management practices to maximize human use and ecosystem services, creating a complex relationship between water policy, management, and the natural ecosystem. This has necessitated research on the spatial and temporal dynamics of riparian vegetation change. The San Acacia Reach of the Middle Rio Grande has experienced multiple management and river flow fluctuations, resulting in threats to its riparian and aquatic ecosystems. This research uses remote sensing data, GIS, a review of management decisions, and an assessment of climate to both quantify how riparian vegetation has been altered over time and provide interpretations of the relationships between riparian change and shifting climate and management objectives. This research focused on four management phases from 1935 to 2014, each highlighting different management practices and climate-driven river patterns, providing unique opportunities to observe a direct relationship between river management, climate, and riparian response. Overall, we believe that management practices coupled with reduced surface river-flows with limited overbank flooding influenced the compositional and spatial patterns of vegetation, including possibly increasing non-native vegetation coverage. However, recent restoration efforts have begun to reduce non-native vegetation coverage.

Effective Engagement of Hostile Audiences on Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Denning, A.

2011-12-01

In 2010 and 2011, I gave invited presentations of mainstream climate science to large conferences dismissive of climate change organized by the HEartland Institute. In this presentation I review some of the common objections raised by such audiences and outline effective strategies to rebut them in public venues or the media. Respectful engagement on a human level is much more effective than appeals from authority, scientific consensus, or numerical models. Starting from a base of agreement on basic facts helps establish a basis of trust, which is then nurtured through personal anecdotes and humor. The basic science of climate change is presented in a non-confrontational way with frequent use of examples from everyday life to explain physical principles. Although a hard core of hostile individuals may not be swayed by such an approach, my experience was that this type of engagement can be very effective with ordinary people. I strongly encourage more climate scientists to work with public audiences and the media.

A vulnerability tool for adapting water and aquatic resources to climate change and extremes on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, J.; Joyce, L. A.; Armel, B.; Bevenger, G.; Zubic, R.

2011-12-01

Climate change introduces a significant challenge for land managers and decision makers managing the natural resources that provide many benefits from forests. These benefits include water for urban and agricultural uses, wildlife habitat, erosion and climate control, aquifer recharge, stream flows regulation, water temperature regulation, and cultural services such as outdoor recreation and aesthetic enjoyment. The Forest Service has responded to this challenge by developing a national strategy for responding to climate change (the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change, July 2010). In concert with this national strategy, the Forest Service's Westwide Climate Initiative has conducted 4 case studies on individual Forests in the western U.S to develop climate adaptation tools. Western National Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they have high-mountain topography, diversity in climate and vegetation, large areas of water limited ecosystems, and increasing urbanization. Information about the vulnerability and capacity of resources to adapt to climate change and extremes is lacking. There is an urgent need to provide customized tools and synthesized local scale information about the impacts to resources from future climate change and extremes, as well as develop science based adaptation options and strategies in National Forest management and planning. The case study on the Shoshone National Forest has aligned its objectives with management needs by developing a climate extreme vulnerability tool that guides adaptation options development. The vulnerability tool determines the likely degree to which native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and water availability are susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change extremes. We spatially categorize vulnerability for water and native trout resources using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators that use minimum and maximum climate and GIS data. Results show that the vulnerability of water availability may increase in areas that have less storage and become more dominated by rain instead of snow. Native trout habitat was found to improve in some areas from warmer temperatures suggesting future refugia habitat may need to be a focus of conservation efforts. The climate extreme vulnerability tool provides Forest Service resource managers science based information that guides adaptation strategy development; prioritize conservation projects; guides monitoring efforts, and helps promote more resilient ecosystems undergoing the effects of climate change.

Sustainability analysis of bioenergy based land use change under climate change and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.; Brouder, S. M.; Bowling, L. C.; Cherkauer, K. A.; Frankenberger, J.; Goforth, R. R.; Gramig, B. M.; Volenec, J. J.

2014-12-01

Sustainability analyses of futuristic plausible land use and climate change scenarios are critical in making watershed-scale decisions for simultaneous improvement of food, energy and water management. Bioenergy production targets for the US are anticipated to impact farming practices through the introduction of fast growing and high yielding perennial grasses/trees, and use of crop residues as bioenergy feedstocks. These land use/land management changes raise concern over potential environmental impacts of bioenergy crop production scenarios, both in terms of water availability and water quality; impacts that may be exacerbated by climate variability and change. The objective of the study was to assess environmental, economic and biodiversity sustainability of plausible bioenergy scenarios for two watersheds in Midwest US under changing climate scenarios. The study considers fourteen sustainability indicators under nine climate change scenarios from World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3). The distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) was used to simulate perennial bioenergy crops such as Miscanthus and switchgrass, and corn stover removal at various removal rates and their impacts on hydrology and water quality. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) developed to evaluate stream fish response to hydrology and water quality changes associated with land use change were used to quantify biodiversity sustainability of various bioenergy scenarios. The watershed-scale sustainability analysis was done in the St. Joseph River watershed located in Indiana, Michigan, and Ohio; and the Wildcat Creek watershed, located in Indiana. The results indicate streamflow reduction at watershed outlet with increased evapotranspiration demands for high-yielding perennial grasses. Bioenergy crops in general improved in-stream water quality compared to conventional cropping systems (maize-soybean). Water quality benefits due to land use change were generally greater than the effects of climate change variability.

Northeast and Midwest regional species and habitats at greatest risk and most vulnerable to climate impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Staudinger, Michelle D.; Hilberg, Laura; Janowiak, Maria; Swanton, C.O.

2016-01-01

The objectives of this Chapter are to describe climate change vulnerability, it’s components, the range of assessment methods being implemented regionally, and examples of training resources and tools. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessments (CCVAs) have already been conducted for numerous Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need and their dependent 5 habitats across the Northeast and Midwest. This chapter provides a synthesis of different assessment frameworks, information on the locations (e.g., States) where vulnerability assessments were conducted, lists of individual species and habitats with their respective vulnerability rankings, and a comparison of how vulnerability rankings were determined among studies.

ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

PubMed Central

Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause–effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses—include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Environ. Toxicol. Chem. 2013;32:79–92. © 2012 SETAC PMID:23161373

Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

PubMed

Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

2013-01-01

Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eng, Kenny; Wolock, David M.; Dettinger, Mike

2015-01-01

There is a great deal of interest in the literature on streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have primarily focused on perennial streams, and there have been only a few studies examining the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objectives in this study were to (1) identify regions of similar zero-flow behavior, and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the United States. This study was carried out at 265 intermittent streams by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate (magnitudes, durations and intensity), and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results identified five distinct seasonality patterns in the zero-flow events. In addition, strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical changes in climate were found. The decadal analysis suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long-term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined.

Science Writers' Guide to TERRA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2000-01-01

The launch of NASA's Terra spacecraft marks a new era of comprehensive monitoring of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and continents from a single space-based platform. Data from the five Terra instruments will create continuous, long-term records of the state of the land, oceans, and atmosphere. Together with data from other satellite systems launched by NASA and other countries, Terra will inaugurate a new self-consistent data record that will be gathered over the next 15 years. The science objectives of NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) program are to provide global observations and scientific understanding of land cover change and global productivity, climate variability and change, natural hazards, and atmospheric ozone. Observations by the Terra instruments will: provide the first global and seasonal measurements of the Earth system, including such critical functions as biological productivity of the land and oceans, snow and ice, surface temperature, clouds, water vapor, and land cover; improve our ability to detect human impacts on the Earth system and climate, identify the "fingerprint" of human activity on climate, and predict climate change by using the new global observations in climate models; help develop technologies for disaster prediction, characterization, and risk reduction from wildfires, volcanoes, floods, and droughts, and start long-term monitoring of global climate change and environmental change.

Talking Climate Science in a Changing Media Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cullen, H. M.

2014-12-01

Founded in 2008 by leading scientists and communications experts at Princeton, Yale and Stanford, Climate Central brings together award-winning journalists and internationally recognized scientists to report the science and impacts of climate change through its research and journalism programs. Climate Central works to tackle the misperception that climate change is a distant thing - affecting other people and other places - by demonstrating the local and personal impacts of global warming. This talk will focus on describing three important Climate Central initiatives. First, our Climate Matters program delivers localized climate information at the regional and local level to weathercasters around the U.S., providing ready-to-use, broadcast quality graphics and analyses that put climate change in a local context. After three years, the program has grown from a pilot with just one TV meteorologist in Columbia, South Carolina to a network of more than 150 weathercasters across the country. Climate Central was also closely involved in the development and production of Years of Living Dangerously - a 9-part global warming documentary that premiered in April 2014. Finally, the World Weather Attribution project is a new initiative that aims to identify the human fingerprint in certain types of extreme weather events, including sea level rise and its contribution to storm surges, extreme heat events, heavy rainfall events/flooding, and drought. Our goal is to objectively and transparently assess certain extreme events and equip journalists and scientists with the tools to provide the larger global warming context in real-time while there is still media interest.

A Framework to Assess the Impacts of Climate Change on ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Climate change is projected to alter watershed hydrology and potentially amplify nonpoint source pollution transport. These changes have implications for fish and macroinvertebrates, which are often used as measures of aquatic ecosystem health. By quantifying the risk of adverse impacts to aquatic ecosystem health at the reach-scale, watershed climate change adaptation strategies can be developed and prioritized. The objective of this research was to quantify the impacts of climate change on stream health in seven Michigan watersheds. A process-based watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was linked to adaptive neuro-fuzzy inferenced (ANFIS) stream health models. SWAT models were used to simulate reach-scale flow regime (magnitude, frequency, timing, duration, and rate of change) and water quality variables. The ANFIS models were developed based on relationships between the in-stream variables and sampling points of four stream health indicators: the fish index of biotic integrity (IBI), macroinvertebrate family index of biotic integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI), and number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa. The combined SWAT-ANFIS models extended stream health predictions to all watershed reaches. A climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was used to develop projections of changes to flow regime (using SWAT) and stream health indicators (using ANFIS) from a ba

Paleoecology and high-resolution paleohydrology of a kettle peatland in upper Michigan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, Robert K.; Jackson, Stephen T.; Gray, Catherine E. D.

2004-01-01

We investigated the developmental and hydrological history of a Sphagnum-dominated, kettle peatland in Upper Michigan using testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, and pollen. Our primary objective was to determine if the paleohydrological record of the peatland represents a record of past climate variability at subcentennial to millennial time scales. To assess the role of millennial-scale climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we compared the timing of peatland and upland vegetation changes. To investigate the role of higher-frequency climate variability on peatland paleohydrology, we used testate amoebae to reconstruct a high-resolution, hydrologic history of the peatland for the past 5100 years, and compared this record to other regional records of paleoclimate and vegetation. Comparisons revealed coherent patterns of hydrological, vegetational, and climatic changes, suggesting that peatland paleohydrology responded to climate variability at millennial to sub-centennial time scales. Although ombrotrophic peatlands have been the focus of most high-resolution peatland paleoclimate research, paleohydrological records from Sphagnum-dominated, closed-basin peatlands record high-frequency and low-magnitude climatic changes and thus represent a significant source of unexplored paleoclimate data.

Revisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future: prospects of water cycle changes in Central Sahel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leauthaud, C.; Demarty, J.; Cappelaere, B.; Grippa, M.; Kergoat, L.; Velluet, C.; Guichard, F.; Mougin, E.; Chelbi, S.; Sultan, B.

2015-06-01

Rainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of Central Sahel. In a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. Yet, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in West Africa since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. The Sahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. The objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in Central Sahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the Sahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. To do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in Niamey, Republic of Niger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. Two temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 °C) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. Simulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. Such climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. This study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.

Climate Change and Arctic Issues in the Marine and Environmental Science Curriculum at the U.S. Coast Guard Academy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlietstra, L.; McConnell, M. C.; Bergondo, D. L.; Mrakovcich, K. L.; Futch, V.; Stutzman, B. S.; Fleischmann, C. M.

2016-02-01

As global climate change becomes more evident, demand will likely increase for experts with a detailed understanding of the scientific basis of climate change, the ocean's role in the earth-atmosphere system, and forecasted impacts, especially in Arctic regions where effects may be most pronounced. As a result, programs in marine and environmental sciences are uniquely poised to prepare graduates for the formidable challenges posed by changing climates. Here we present research evaluating the prevalence and themes of courses focusing on anthropogenic climate change in 125 Marine Science and Environmental Science undergraduate programs at 86 institutions in the United States. These results, in addition to the increasing role of the Coast Guard in the Arctic, led to the development of two new courses in the curriculum. Climate Change Science, a one-credit seminar, includes several student-centered activities supporting key learning objectives. Polar Oceanography, a three-credit course, incorporates a major outreach component to Coast Guard units and members of the scientific community. Given the importance of climate change in Arctic regions in particular, we also propose six essential "Arctic Literacy Principles" around which courses or individual lesson plans may be organized. We show how these principles are incorporated into an additional new three-credit course, Model Arctic Council, which prepares students to participate in a week-long simulation exercise of Arctic Council meetings, held in Fairbanks, Alaska. Students examine the history and mission of the Arctic Council and explore some of the issues on which the council has deliberated. Special attention is paid to priorities of the current U.S. chairmanship of the Arctic Council which include climate change impacts on, and stewardship of, the Arctic Ocean.

NASA/JPL CLIMATE DAY: Middle and High School Students Get the Facts about Global Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, Annie; Callery, Susan; Srinivasan, Margaret

2013-04-01

In 2007, NASA Headquarters requested that Earth Science outreach teams brainstorm new education and public outreach activities that would focus on the topic of global climate change. At the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), Annie Richardson, outreach lead for the Ocean Surface Topography missions came up with the idea of a "Climate Day", capitalizing on the popular Earth Day name and events held annually throughout the world. JPL Climate Day would be an education and public outreach event whose objectives are to provide the latest scientific facts about global climate change - including the role the ocean plays in it, the contributions that NASA/JPL satellites and scientists make to the body of knowledge on the topic, and what we as individuals can do to promote global sustainability. The primary goal is that participants get this information in a fun and exciting environment, and walk away feeling empowered and capable of confidently engaging in the global climate debate. In March 2008, JPL and its partners held the first Climate Day event. 950 students from seven school districts heard from five scientists; visited exhibits, and participated in hands-on-activities. Pleased with the outcome, we organized JPL Climate Day 2010 at the Pasadena Convention Center in Pasadena, California, reaching more than 1700 students, teachers, and members of the general public over two days. Taking note of this successful model, NASA funded a multi-center, NASA Climate Day proposal in 2010 to expand Climate Day nation-wide. The NASA Climate Day proposal is a three-pronged project consisting of a cadre of Earth Ambassadors selected from among NASA-affiliated informal educators; a "Climate Day Kit" consisting of climate-related electronic resources available to the Earth Ambassadors; and NASA Climate Day events to be held in Earth Ambassador communities across the United States. NASA/JPL continues to host the original Climate Day event and in 2012 held its 4th event, at the Pasadena Convention Center in Pasadena, California. Although our goals and objectives remain the same, we continue to improve the event, which now includes student staff and student exhibitors. Our poster will give an overview and highlights of the November 16, 2012 event.

Vulnerability Assessment, Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Slovenia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cegnar, T.

2010-09-01

In relation to the priority tasks of the climate change measures, the Republic of Slovenia estimates that special attention needs to be devoted to the following sectors in general: - sectors that currently indicate a strong vulnerability for the current climate variability (for instance, agriculture), - sectors where the vulnerability for climate change is increased by current trends (for instance, urban development, use of space), - sectors where the adaptation time is the longest and the subsequent development changes are connected with the highest costs (for instance, use of space, infrastructural objects, forestry, urban development, building stock). Considering the views of Slovenia to the climate change problem in Europe and Slovenia, priority measures and emphasis on future adaptation to climate change, the Republic of Slovenia has especially exposed the following action areas: - sustainable and integrated management of water sources for water power production, prevention of floods, provision of water for the enrichment of low flow rates, and preservation of environmental function as well as provision of water for other needs; - sustainable management of forest ecosystems, adjusted to changes, for the provision of their environmental function as well as being a source of biomass, wood for products for the conservation of carbon, and carbon sinks; - spatial planning as one of the important preventive instruments for the adaptation to climate change through the processes of integral planning of spatial and urban development; - sustainable use and preservation of natural wealth and the preservation of biodiversity as well as ecosystem services with measures and policies that enable an enhanced resistance of ecosystems to climate change, and the role of biological diversity in integral adaptation measures; - informing and awareness on the consequences of climate change and adaptation possibilities. For years, the most endangered sectors have been agriculture and forestry; therefore, they are also the only sectors for which a national adaptation strategy was adopted.

Climate change and associated spatial heterogeneity of Pakistan: Empirical evidence using multidisciplinary approach.

PubMed

Ali, Ghaffar

2018-09-01

Climate change is a multidimensional phenomenon, which has various implications for the environment and socio-economic conditions of the people. Its effects are deeper in an agrarian economy which is susceptible to the vagaries of nature. Therefore, climate change directly impacts the society in different ways, and society must pay the cost. Focusing on this truth, the main objective of this research was to investigate the empirical changes and spatial heterogeneity in the climate of Pakistan in real terms using time series data. Climate change and variability in Pakistan, over time, were estimated from 1961 to 2014 using all the climate variables for the very first time. Several studies were available on climate change impacts, mitigation, and adaptation; however, it was difficult to observe exactly how much change occurred in which province and when. A multidisciplinary approach was utilized to estimate the absolute change through a combination of environmental, econometric, and remote sensing methods. Moreover, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was used to ascertain the extent of variability in climate change and information was digitalized through ground truthing. Results showed that the average temperature of Pakistan increased by 2°C between 1960 and 1987 and 4°C between 1988 and 2014, and R 2 was 0.978. The rate of temperature increased 0.09°C between 1960 and 2014. The mean annual precipitation of Pakistan increased by 478mm, and its R 2 were 0.34-0.64. The mean annual humidity of Pakistan increased by 2.94%, and the rate of humidity has been increased by 0.97% from 1988 to 2014. Notably, Sindh and Balochistan provinces have shown a significant spatial heterogeneity regarding the increase in precipitation. Statistically all variables are significant. This would serve as a baseline information for climate change-related studies in Pakistan and its application in different sectors. This would also serve the plant breeders and policymakers of the country. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: scientific objectives and experimental design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-03-01

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) is a co-ordinated international climate modelling initiative to study and understand climate and environments of the Late Pliocene, as well as their potential relevance in the context of future climate change. PlioMIP examines the consistency of model predictions in simulating Pliocene climate and their ability to reproduce climate signals preserved by geological climate archives. Here we provide a description of the aim and objectives of the next phase of the model intercomparison project (PlioMIP Phase 2), and we present the experimental design and boundary conditions that will be utilized for climate model experiments in Phase 2. Following on from PlioMIP Phase 1, Phase 2 will continue to be a mechanism for sampling structural uncertainty within climate models. However, Phase 1 demonstrated the requirement to better understand boundary condition uncertainties as well as uncertainty in the methodologies used for data-model comparison. Therefore, our strategy for Phase 2 is to utilize state-of-the-art boundary conditions that have emerged over the last 5 years. These include a new palaeogeographic reconstruction, detailing ocean bathymetry and land-ice surface topography. The ice surface topography is built upon the lessons learned from offline ice sheet modelling studies. Land surface cover has been enhanced by recent additions of Pliocene soils and lakes. Atmospheric reconstructions of palaeo-CO2 are emerging on orbital timescales, and these are also incorporated into PlioMIP Phase 2. New records of surface and sea surface temperature change are being produced that will be more temporally consistent with the boundary conditions and forcings used within models. Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew;

Significance of hydrological model choice and land use changes when doing climate change impact assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bjørnholt Karlsson, Ida; Obel Sonnenborg, Torben; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Høgh Jensen, Karsten

2014-05-01

Uncertainty in impact studies arises both from Global Climate Models (GCM), emission projections, statistical downscaling, Regional Climate Models (RCM), hydrological models and calibration techniques (Refsgaard et al. 2013). Some of these uncertainties have been evaluated several times in the literature; however few studies have investigated the effect of hydrological model choice on the assessment results (Boorman & Sefton 1997; Jiang et al. 2007; Bastola et al. 2011). These studies have found that model choice results in large differences, up to 70%, in the predicted discharge changes depending on the climate input. The objective of the study is to investigate the impact of climate change on hydrology of the Odense catchment, Denmark both in response to (a) different climate projections (GCM-RCM combinations); (b) different hydrological models and (c) different land use scenarios. This includes: 1. Separation of the climate model signal; the hydrological model signal and the land use signal 2. How do the different hydrological components react under different climate and land use conditions for the different models 3. What land use scenario seems to provide the best adaptation for the challenges of the different future climate change scenarios from a hydrological perspective? Four climate models from the ENSEMBLES project (Hewitt & Griggs 2004): ECHAM5 - HIRHAM5, ECHAM5 - RCA3, ARPEGE - RM5.1 and HadCM3 - HadRM3 are used, assessing the climate change impact in three periods: 1991-2010 (present), 2041-2060 (near future) and 2081-2100 (far future). The four climate models are used in combination with three hydrological models with different conceptual layout: NAM, SWAT and MIKE SHE. Bastola, S., C. Murphy and J. Sweeney (2011). "The role of hydrological modelling uncertainties in climate change impact assessments of Irish river catchments." Advances in Water Resources 34: 562-576. Boorman, D. B. and C. E. M. Sefton (1997). "Recognising the uncertainty in the quantification of the effects of climate change on hydrological response." Climate Change 35: 415-434. Hewitt, C. D. and D. J. Griggs (2004). "Ensembles-based predictions of climate changes and their impacts." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 85: 1-566. Jiang, T., Y. D. Chen, C. Xu, X. Chen, X. Chen and V. P. Singh (2007). "Comparison of hydrological impacts of climate change simulated by six hydrological models in the Dongjiang Basin, South China." Journal of hydrology 336: 316-333. Refsgaard, J. C., K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen, M. Drews, K. Halsnæs, E. Jeppesen, H. Madsen, A. Markandya, J. E. Olesen, J. R. Porter and J. H. Christensen (2013). "The role of uncertainty in climate change adaptation strategies - A Danish water management example." Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 18: 337-359.

Precipitation Indices as a Tool for Climate-Resilient Development in the Peruvian Andes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chisolm, R. E.; McKinney, D. C.

2016-12-01

The local people living in the mountains of the Ancash Department in Peru have noticed changes in their water supply as climate change has altered precipitation patterns. They are seeking adaptation solutions to help guarantee the reliability of their water supply, but there has been very little analysis of historical data to evaluate and justify these adaptation solutions. In addition, Peru's Ministry of Economy and Finance now requires that climate change be part of the vulnerability assessment for all public investment project proposals, but there are currently no tools or methods of data analysis for including climate change in vulnerability assessments. Compounding the difficulties of considering climate change in the sustainability of development projects is the scarcity of climate data in the region and the difficulty of accessing existing data. To counteract this problem, the Peruvian government recommends using local people's perceptions of change as a proxy for gauged climate data. This work focuses on precipitation data analysis in the mountains of Ancash, Peru. The objectives of this analysis were to determine the accuracy of the local population's perceptions of climate change and to investigate how changes in precipitation patterns might impact public investment projects. The precipitation data analysis was compared to a local study of perceptions of change to determine whether or not these perceptions might be used in lieu of gauged climate data. It appears that people's perceptions of precipitation trends do not accurately reflect the trends observed in the gauged data. The methods of analysis were designed so that the results may be useful for public investment projects with a particular emphasis on agricultural projects. The data were analyzed for trends, seasonal patterns and variability. Dry spells were examined, and the results indicate that droughts during the rainy season have become more frequent and of longer duration. This could have significant impact on agricultural projects. It is likely that the current practice of relying exclusively on wet season rainfall to meet crop water requirements may not be sustainable in the future. Further analysis of climate data is needed to generate a regional climatic characterization that can be used for climate-resilient development projects.

Not just about sunburn--the ozone hole's profound effect on climate has significant implications for Southern Hemisphere ecosystems.

PubMed

Robinson, Sharon A; Erickson, David J

2015-02-01

Climate scientists have concluded that stratospheric ozone depletion has been a major driver of Southern Hemisphere climate processes since about 1980. The implications of these observed and modelled changes in climate are likely to be far more pervasive for both terrestrial and marine ecosystems than the increase in ultraviolet-B radiation due to ozone depletion; however, they have been largely overlooked in the biological literature. Here, we synthesize the current understanding of how ozone depletion has impacted Southern Hemisphere climate and highlight the relatively few documented impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystems. Reviewing the climate literature, we present examples of how ozone depletion changes atmospheric and oceanic circulation, with an emphasis on how these alterations in the physical climate system affect Southern Hemisphere weather, especially over the summer season (December-February). These potentially include increased incidence of extreme events, resulting in costly floods, drought, wildfires and serious environmental damage. The ecosystem impacts documented so far include changes to growth rates of South American and New Zealand trees, decreased growth of Antarctic mosses and changing biodiversity in Antarctic lakes. The objective of this synthesis was to stimulate the ecological community to look beyond ultraviolet-B radiation when considering the impacts of ozone depletion. Such widespread changes in Southern Hemisphere climate are likely to have had as much or more impact on natural ecosystems and food production over the past few decades, than the increased ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change in Colorado: Findings and Scientific Challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barsugli, J.; Ray, A.; Averyt, K.; Wolter, K.; Hoerling, M. P.

2008-12-01

In response to the risks associated with anthropogenic climate change, Governor Ritter issued the Colorado Climate Action Plan (CCAP) in 2007. In support of the adaptation component of the CCAP, the Colorado Water Conservation Board commissioned the Western Water Assessment at the University of Colorado to prepare the report "Climate Change in Colorado: A Synthesis to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation." The objective of "Climate Change in Colorado" is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources. Accordingly, the document focuses on observed trends, modeling, attribution, and projections of hydroclimatic variables that are important for Colorado's water supply. Although many published datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus on the state. Consequently, many important analyses for Colorado are lacking. The report summarizes Colorado-specific findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and presents new analyses derived from existing datasets. Here we will summarize the findings of the report, discuss the extent to which conclusions from West-wide studies hold in Colorado, and highlight the many scientific challenges that were faced in the preparation of the report. These challenges include interpreting observed and projected precipitation and temperature variability and trends, dealing with attribution and uncertainty at the state level, and justifying the relevance of climate model projections in a topographically complex state. A second presentation (Ray et al.) discusses the process of developing the report.

Coupling Processes Between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm K. W.; Weisenstein, Debra; Rodriguez, Jose; Danilin, Michael; Scott, Courtney; Shia, Run-Lie; Eluszkiewicz, Junusz; Sze, Nien-Dak

1999-01-01

This is the final report. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes among atmospheric chemistry, aerosol and climate, all important for quantitative assessments of global change. Among our priority are changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The work emphasizes two important aspects: (1) AER's continued participation in preparation of, and providing scientific input for, various scientific reports connected with assessment of stratospheric ozone and climate. These include participation in various model intercomparison exercises as well as preparation of national and international reports. and (2) Continued development of the AER three-wave interactive model to address how the transport circulation will change as ozone and the thermal properties of the atmosphere change, and assess how these new findings will affect our confidence in the ozone assessment results.

Forest management under climatic and social uncertainty: trade-offs between reducing climate change impacts and fostering adaptive capacity.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Lexer, Manfred J

2013-01-15

The unabated continuation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and the lack of an international consensus on a stringent climate change mitigation policy underscore the importance of adaptation for coping with the all but inevitable changes in the climate system. Adaptation measures in forestry have particularly long lead times. A timely implementation is thus crucial for reducing the considerable climate vulnerability of forest ecosystems. However, since future environmental conditions as well as future societal demands on forests are inherently uncertain, a core requirement for adaptation is robustness to a wide variety of possible futures. Here we explicitly address the roles of climatic and social uncertainty in forest management, and tackle the question of robustness of adaptation measures in the context of multi-objective sustainable forest management (SFM). We used the Austrian Federal Forests (AFF) as a case study, and employed a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework based on ecosystem modeling, multi-criteria decision analysis, and practitioner participation. We explicitly considered climate uncertainty by means of three climate change scenarios, and accounted for uncertainty in future social demands by means of three societal preference scenarios regarding SFM indicators. We found that the effects of climatic and social uncertainty on the projected performance of management were in the same order of magnitude, underlining the notion that climate change adaptation requires an integrated social-ecological perspective. Furthermore, our analysis of adaptation measures revealed considerable trade-offs between reducing adverse impacts of climate change and facilitating adaptive capacity. This finding implies that prioritization between these two general aims of adaptation is necessary in management planning, which we suggest can draw on uncertainty analysis: Where the variation induced by social-ecological uncertainty renders measures aiming to reduce climate change impacts statistically insignificant (i.e., for approximately one third of the investigated management units of the AFF case study), fostering adaptive capacity is suggested as the preferred pathway for adaptation. We conclude that climate change adaptation needs to balance between anticipating expected future conditions and building the capacity to address unknowns and surprises. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stakeholders’ engagement in promoting sustainable development: Businesses and urban forest carbon

Treesearch

N. C. Poudyal; J. P. Siry; J. M. Bowker

2012-01-01

To better understand how businesses’ motivation and support for green projects varies by their organizational objectives and characteristics, this study investigates a case of urban forestry carbon credits in a broader context of climate change mitigation efforts. Companies and organizations currently participating in the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) were surveyed...

Readings from Visibility Meters: Do They Really Mean the Maximum Distance of Observing A Black Object?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Zhang, S.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Selin, N. E.

2016-12-01

Climate change, favoring more heat waves and episodes of stagnant air, may deteriorate air quality by increasing ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and high pollution episodes. This effect, termed as "climate penalty", has been quantified and explained by many earlier studies in the U.S. and Europe, but research efforts in Asian countries are limited. We evaluate the impact of climate change on air quality and human health in China and India using a modeling framework that links the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model to the Community Atmosphere Model (MIT IGSM-CAM). Future climate fields are projected under three climate scenarios including a no-policy reference scenario and two climate stabilization scenarios with 2100 total radiative forcing targets of 9.7, 4.5 and 3.7 W m-2, respectively. Each climate scenario is run for five representations of climate variability to account for the role of natural variability. Thirty-year chemical transport simulations are conducted in 1981-2010 and 2086-2115 under the three climate scenarios with fixed anthropogenic emissions at year 2000 levels. We find that 2000—2100 climate change under the no-policy reference scenario would increase ozone concentrations in eastern China and northern India by up to 5 ppb through enhancing biogenic emissions and ozone production efficiency. Ozone extreme episodes also become more frequent in these regions, while climate policies can offset most of the increase in ozone episodes. Climate change between 2000 and 2100 would slightly increase anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in northern China and Sichuan province, but significantly reduce anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in southern China and northern India, primarily due to different chemical responses of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols to climate change in these regions. Our study also suggests that the mitigation costs of climate policies can be partially offset by health benefits from reduced climate-induced air pollution in China.

CLARREO Cornerstone of the Earth Observing System: Measuring Decadal Change Through Accurate Emitted Infrared and Reflected Solar Spectra and Radio Occultation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandford, Stephen P.

2010-01-01

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) is one of four Tier 1 missions recommended by the recent NRC Decadal Survey report on Earth Science and Applications from Space (NRC, 2007). The CLARREO mission addresses the need to provide accurate, broadly acknowledged climate records that are used to enable validated long-term climate projections that become the foundation for informed decisions on mitigation and adaptation policies that address the effects of climate change on society. The CLARREO mission accomplishes this critical objective through rigorous SI traceable decadal change observations that are sensitive to many of the key uncertainties in climate radiative forcings, responses, and feedbacks that in turn drive uncertainty in current climate model projections. These same uncertainties also lead to uncertainty in attribution of climate change to anthropogenic forcing. For the first time CLARREO will make highly accurate, global, SI-traceable decadal change observations sensitive to the most critical, but least understood, climate forcings, responses, and feedbacks. The CLARREO breakthrough is to achieve the required levels of accuracy and traceability to SI standards for a set of observations sensitive to a wide range of key decadal change variables. The required accuracy levels are determined so that climate trend signals can be detected against a background of naturally occurring variability. Climate system natural variability therefore determines what level of accuracy is overkill, and what level is critical to obtain. In this sense, the CLARREO mission requirements are considered optimal from a science value perspective. The accuracy for decadal change traceability to SI standards includes uncertainties associated with instrument calibration, satellite orbit sampling, and analysis methods. Unlike most space missions, the CLARREO requirements are driven not by the instantaneous accuracy of the measurements, but by accuracy in the large time/space scale averages that are key to understanding decadal changes.

Exploring the Interactions between Land Use, Climate Change and Carbon Cycle using Satellite Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, R. L.; Fares, A.; He, Y.; Awal, R.; Risch, E.

2017-12-01

Most climate change impacts are linked to terrestrial vegetation productivity, carbon stocks and land use change. Changes in land use and climate drive the dynamics of terrestrial carbon cycle. These carbon cycle dynamics operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of carbon flux has been challenging because land-atmosphere-carbon exchange is influenced by many factors, including but not limited to, land use change and climate change and variability. The study of terrestrial carbon cycle, mainly gross primary product (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), soil organic carbon (SOC) and ecosystem respiration (Re) and their interactions with land use and climate change, are critical to understanding the terrestrial ecosystem. The main objective of this study was to examine the interactions among land use, climate change and terrestrial carbon cycling in the state of Texas using satellite measurements. We studied GPP, NEE, Re and SOC distributions for five selected major land covers and all ten climate zones in Texas using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) carbon products. SMAP Carbon products (Res=9 km) were compared with observed CO2 flux data measured at EC flux site on Prairie View A&M University Research Farm. Results showed the same land cover in different climate zones has significantly different carbon sequestration potentials. For example, cropland of the humid climate zone has higher (-228 g C/m2) carbon sequestration potentials than the semiarid climate zone (-36 g C/m2). Also, shrub land in the humid zone and in the semiarid zone showed high (-120 g C/m2) and low (-36 g C/m2) potentials of carbon sequestration, respectively, in the state. Overall, the analyses indicate CO2 storage and exchange respond differently to various land covers, and environments due to differences in water availability, root distribution and soil properties.

Global Climate Change: Some Implications, Opportunities, and Challenges for US Forestry

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Marland, G.

1991-06-01

It is widely agreed that the concentration of greenhouse gases in the earth`s atmosphere is increasing, that this increase is a consequence of man`s activities, and that there is significant risk that this will lead to changes in the earth`s climate. The question is now being discussed what, if anything, we should be doing to minimize and/or adapt to changes in climate. Virtually every statement on this matter; from the US Office of Technology Assessment, to the National Academy of Science, to the Nairobi Declaration on Climatic Change, includes some recommendation for planting and protecting forests. In fact, forestry is intimately involved in the climate change debate for several reasons: changing climate patterns will affect existing forests, tropical deforestation is one of the major sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, reforestation projects could remove additional carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and there is renewed interest in wood-based or other renewable fuels to replace fossil fuels. Part of the enthusiasm for forestry-related strategies in a greenhouse context is the perception that forests not only provide greenhouse benefits but also serve other desirable social objectives. This discussion will explore the current range of thinking in this area and try to stimulate additional thinking on the rationality of the forestry-based approaches and the challenges posed for US forestry.

Using a Pareto-optimal solution set to characterize trade-offs between a broad range of values and preferences in climate risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, Gregory; Reed, Patrick; Keller, Klaus

2015-04-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used to inform the design of climate risk management strategies. Previous IAM studies have broken important new ground on analyzing the effects of parametric uncertainties, but they are often silent on the implications of uncertainties regarding the problem formulation. Here we use the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) to analyze the effects of uncertainty surrounding the definition of the objective(s). The standard DICE model adopts a single objective to maximize a weighted sum of utilities of per-capita consumption. Decision makers, however, are often concerned with a broader range of values and preferences that may be poorly captured by this a priori definition of utility. We reformulate the problem by introducing three additional objectives that represent values such as (i) reliably limiting global average warming to two degrees Celsius and minimizing (ii) the costs of abatement and (iii) the climate change damages. We use advanced multi-objective optimization methods to derive a set of Pareto-optimal solutions over which decision makers can trade-off and assess performance criteria a posteriori. We illustrate the potential for myopia in the traditional problem formulation and discuss the capability of this multiobjective formulation to provide decision support.

Ocean climate indicators: A monitoring inventory and plan for tracking climate change in the north-central California coast and ocean region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Duncan, Benet; Higgason, Kelley; Suchanek, Tom; Largier, John; Stachowicz, Jay; Allen, Sarah; Bograd, Steven; Breen, R.; Gellerman, Holly; Hill, Tessa; Jahncke, Jaime; Johnson, Rebecca L.; Lonhart, Steve I.; Morgan, Steven; Wilkerson, Frances; Roletto, Jan

2013-01-01

The impacts of climate change, defined as increasing atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide and associated increases in average global temperature and oceanic acidity, have been observed both globally and on regional scales, such as in the North-central California coast and ocean, a region that extends from Point Arena to Point Año Nuevo and includes the Pacific coastline of the San Francisco Bay Area. Because of the high economic and ecological value of the region’s marine environment, the Gulf of the Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS) and other agencies and organizations have recognized the need to evaluate and plan for climate change impacts. Climate change indicators can be developed on global, regional, and site-specific spatial scales, and they provide information about the presence and potential impacts of climate change. While indicators exist for the nation and for the state of California as a whole, no system of ocean climate indicators exist that specifically consider the unique characteristics of the California coast and ocean region. To that end, GFNMS collaborated with over 50 regional, federal, and state natural resource managers, research scientists, and other partners to develop a set of 2 ocean climate indicators specific to this region. A smaller working group of 13 regional partners developed monitoring goals, objectives, strategies, and activities for the indicators and recommended selected species for biological indicators, resulting in the Ocean Climate Indicators Monitoring Inventory and Plan. The working group considered current knowledge of ongoing monitoring, feasibility of monitoring, costs, and logistics in selecting monitoring activities and selected species.

An Evidence-Based Public Health Approach to Climate Change Adaptation

PubMed Central

Eidson, Millicent; Tlumak, Jennifer E.; Raab, Kristin K.; Luber, George

2014-01-01

Background: Public health is committed to evidence-based practice, yet there has been minimal discussion of how to apply an evidence-based practice framework to climate change adaptation. Objectives: Our goal was to review the literature on evidence-based public health (EBPH), to determine whether it can be applied to climate change adaptation, and to consider how emphasizing evidence-based practice may influence research and practice decisions related to public health adaptation to climate change. Methods: We conducted a substantive review of EBPH, identified a consensus EBPH framework, and modified it to support an EBPH approach to climate change adaptation. We applied the framework to an example and considered implications for stakeholders. Discussion: A modified EBPH framework can accommodate the wide range of exposures, outcomes, and modes of inquiry associated with climate change adaptation and the variety of settings in which adaptation activities will be pursued. Several factors currently limit application of the framework, including a lack of higher-level evidence of intervention efficacy and a lack of guidelines for reporting climate change health impact projections. To enhance the evidence base, there must be increased attention to designing, evaluating, and reporting adaptation interventions; standardized health impact projection reporting; and increased attention to knowledge translation. This approach has implications for funders, researchers, journal editors, practitioners, and policy makers. Conclusions: The current approach to EBPH can, with modifications, support climate change adaptation activities, but there is little evidence regarding interventions and knowledge translation, and guidelines for projecting health impacts are lacking. Realizing the goal of an evidence-based approach will require systematic, coordinated efforts among various stakeholders. Citation: Hess JJ, Eidson M, Tlumak JE, Raab KK, Luber G. 2014. An evidence-based public health approach to climate change adaptation. Environ Health Perspect 122:1177–1186; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1307396 PMID:25003495

Climate change effects on human health in a gender perspective: some trends in Arctic research

PubMed Central

Natalia, Kukarenko

2011-01-01

Background Climate change and environmental pollution have become pressing concerns for the peoples in the Arctic region. Some researchers link climate change, transformations of living conditions and human health. A number of studies have also provided data on differentiating effects of climate change on women's and men's well-being and health. Objective To show how the issues of climate and environment change, human health and gender are addressed in current research in the Arctic. The main purpose of this article is not to give a full review but to draw attention to the gaps in knowledge and challenges in the Arctic research trends on climate change, human health and gender. Methods A broad literature search was undertaken using a variety of sources from natural, medical, social science and humanities. The focus was on the keywords. Results Despite the evidence provided by many researchers on differentiating effects of climate change on well-being and health of women and men, gender perspective remains of marginal interest in climate change, environmental and health studies. At the same time, social sciences and humanities, and gender studies in particular, show little interest towards climate change impacts on human health in the Arctic. As a result, we still observe the division of labour between disciplines, the disciplinary-bound pictures of human development in the Arctic and terminology confusion. Conclusion Efforts to bring in a gender perspective in the Arctic research will be successful only when different disciplines would work together. Multidisciplinary research is a way to challenge academic/disciplinary homogeneity and their boundaries, to take advantage of the diversity of approaches and methods in production of new integrated knowledge. Cooperation and dialogue across disciplines will help to develop adequate indicators for monitoring human health and elaborating efficient policies and strategies to the benefit of both women and men in the Arctic. PMID:21949499

What the patient wants: Addressing patients' treatment targets in an integrative group psychotherapy programme.

PubMed

Kealy, David; Joyce, Anthony S; Weber, Rainer; Ehrenthal, Johannes C; Ogrodniczuk, John S

2018-02-13

Limited empirical attention has been devoted to individualized treatment objectives in intensive group therapy for personality dysfunction. This study investigated patients' ratings of distress associated with individual therapy goals - referred to as target object severity - in an intensive Evening Treatment Programme for patients with personality dysfunction. Change in target objective severity was examined in a sample of 81 patients who completed treatment in an intensive, integrative group therapy programme. Correlation and regression analyses were used to examine associations between change in target object severity and patients' pre-treatment diagnosis, symptom distress, and treatment outcome expectancy, and between change in target objective severity and patients' ratings of group therapy process (group climate, therapeutic alliance, group cohesion). The relationship between change in target objective severity and longer-range life satisfaction was also examined in a subsample of patients who rated life satisfaction at follow-up. While change in target objective severity was not significantly related to pre-treatment variables, significant associations were found with several aspects of group therapy process. Patients' experience of a highly engaged group climate was uniquely associated with improvement in target object severity. Such improvement was significantly related to longer-term life satisfaction after controlling for general symptom change. The working atmosphere in group therapy contributes to patients' progress regarding individual treatment targets, and such progress is an important factor in later satisfaction. Attention to individualized treatment targets deserves further clinical and research attention in the context of integrative group therapy for personality dysfunction. This study found that patients attending an integrative group treatment programme for personality dysfunction experienced significant improvement in severity of distress related to individual treatment objectives. Improvement in severity of distress related to individual treatment objectives was uniquely associated with patients' experience of an engaged, collaborative working atmosphere. Improvement in individual target objective severity was associated with patients' ratings of overall life satisfaction, rated an average of 9 months following termination, after controlling for change in general symptom severity. © 2018 The British Psychological Society.

Environmental assessment for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program: Southern Great Plains Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Policastro, A.J.; Pfingston, J.M.; Maloney, D.M.

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program is aimed at supplying improved predictive capability of climate change, particularly the prediction of cloud-climate feedback. The objective will be achieved by measuring the atmospheric radiation and physical and meteorological quantities that control solar radiation in the earth`s atmosphere and using this information to test global climate and related models. The proposed action is to construct and operate a Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) research site in the southern Great Plains as part of the Department of Energy`s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program whose objective is to develop an improved predictive capability of global climatemore » change. The purpose of this CART research site in southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma would be to collect meteorological and other scientific information to better characterize the processes controlling radiation transfer on a global scale. Impacts which could result from this facility are described.« less

Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe.

PubMed

Sáenz-Romero, Cuauhtémoc; Lamy, Jean-Baptiste; Ducousso, Alexis; Musch, Brigitte; Ehrenmann, François; Delzon, Sylvain; Cavers, Stephen; Chałupka, Władysław; Dağdaş, Said; Hansen, Jon Kehlet; Lee, Steve J; Liesebach, Mirko; Rau, Hans-Martin; Psomas, Achilleas; Schneck, Volker; Steiner, Wilfried; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Kremer, Antoine

2017-07-01

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071-2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5-EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4-GEM2-ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Facing the limit of resilience: perceptions of climate change among reindeer herding Sami in Sweden

PubMed Central

Furberg, Maria; Evengård, Birgitta; Nilsson, Maria

2011-01-01

Background The Arctic area is a part of the globe where the increase in global temperature has had the earliest noticeable effect and indigenous peoples, including the Swedish reindeer herding Sami, are amongst the first to be affected by these changes. Objective To explore the experiences and perceptions of climate change among Swedish reindeer herding Sami. Study design In-depth interviews with 14 Swedish reindeer herding Sami were performed, with purposive sampling. The interviews focused on the herders experiences of climate change, observed consequences and thoughts about this. The interviews were analysed using content analysis. Results One core theme emerged from the interviews: facing the limit of resilience. Swedish reindeer-herding Sami perceive climate change as yet another stressor in their daily struggle. They have experienced severe and more rapidly shifting, unstable weather with associated changes in vegetation and alterations in the freeze–thaw cycle, all of which affect reindeer herding. The forecasts about climate change from authorities and scientists have contributed to stress and anxiety. Other societal developments have lead to decreased flexibility that obstructs adaptation. Some adaptive strategies are discordant with the traditional life of reindeer herding, and there is a fear among the Sami of being the last generation practising traditional reindeer herding. Conclusions The study illustrates the vulnerable situation of the reindeer herders and that climate change impact may have serious consequences for the trade and their overall way of life. Decision makers on all levels, both in Sweden and internationally, need improved insights into these complex issues to be able to make adequate decisions about adaptive climate change strategies. PMID:22043218

Ecosystem oceanography for global change in fisheries.

PubMed

Cury, Philippe Maurice; Shin, Yunne-Jai; Planque, Benjamin; Durant, Joël Marcel; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Kramer-Schadt, Stephanie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Travers, Morgane; Grimm, Volker

2008-06-01

Overexploitation and climate change are increasingly causing unanticipated changes in marine ecosystems, such as higher variability in fish recruitment and shifts in species dominance. An ecosystem-based approach to fisheries attempts to address these effects by integrating populations, food webs and fish habitats at different scales. Ecosystem models represent indispensable tools to achieve this objective. However, a balanced research strategy is needed to avoid overly complex models. Ecosystem oceanography represents such a balanced strategy that relates ecosystem components and their interactions to climate change and exploitation. It aims at developing realistic and robust models at different levels of organisation and addressing specific questions in a global change context while systematically exploring the ever-increasing amount of biological and environmental data.

Cumulative carbon as a policy framework for achieving climate stabilization

PubMed Central

Matthews, H. Damon; Solomon, Susan; Pierrehumbert, Raymond

2012-01-01

The primary objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that will avoid dangerous climate impacts. However, greenhouse gas concentration stabilization is an awkward framework within which to assess dangerous climate change on account of the significant lag between a given concentration level and the eventual equilibrium temperature change. By contrast, recent research has shown that global temperature change can be well described by a given cumulative carbon emissions budget. Here, we propose that cumulative carbon emissions represent an alternative framework that is applicable both as a tool for climate mitigation as well as for the assessment of potential climate impacts. We show first that both atmospheric CO2 concentration at a given year and the associated temperature change are generally associated with a unique cumulative carbon emissions budget that is largely independent of the emissions scenario. The rate of global temperature change can therefore be related to first order to the rate of increase of cumulative carbon emissions. However, transient warming over the next century will also be strongly affected by emissions of shorter lived forcing agents such as aerosols and methane. Non-CO2 emissions therefore contribute to uncertainty in the cumulative carbon budget associated with near-term temperature targets, and may suggest the need for a mitigation approach that considers separately short- and long-lived gas emissions. By contrast, long-term temperature change remains primarily associated with total cumulative carbon emissions owing to the much longer atmospheric residence time of CO2 relative to other major climate forcing agents. PMID:22869803

How can a climate change perspective be integrated into public health surveillance?

PubMed

Pascal, M; Viso, A C; Medina, S; Delmas, M C; Beaudeau, P

2012-08-01

Climate change may be considered as a key factor for environmental change, exposure to health risks and pathogens, consequently impairing the state of health among populations. Efficient health surveillance systems are required to support adaptation to climate change. However, despite a growing awareness, the public health surveillance sector has had very little involvement in the drafting of adaptation plans. This paper proposes a method to raise awareness about climate change in the public health community, to identify possible health risks and to assess the needs for reinforced health surveillance systems. A working group was set up comprising surveillance experts in the following fields: environmental health; chronic diseases and; infectious diseases. Their goal was to define common objectives, to propose a framework for risk analysis, and to apply it to relevant health risks in France. The framework created helped to organize available information on climate-sensitive health risks, making a distinction between three main determinants as follows: (1) environment; (2) individual and social behaviours; and (3) demography and health status. The process is illustrated using two examples: heatwaves and airborne allergens. Health surveillance systems can be used to trigger early warning systems, to create databases which improve scientific knowledge about the health impacts of climate change, to identify and prioritize needs for intervention and adaptation measures, and to evaluate these measures. Adaptation requires public health professionals to consider climate change as a concrete input parameter in their studies and to create partnerships with professionals from other disciplines. Copyright © 2012 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determining the importance of model calibration for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Niraula, Rewati; Meixner, Thomas; Norman, Laura M.

2015-01-01

Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are important drivers of change in streamflow. Assessing the impact of LULC and climate changes on streamflow is typically done with a calibrated and validated watershed model. However, there is a debate on the degree of calibration required. The objective of this study was to quantify the variation in estimated relative and absolute changes in streamflow associated with LULC and climate changes with different calibration approaches. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied in an uncalibrated (UC), single outlet calibrated (OC), and spatially-calibrated (SC) mode to compare the relative and absolute changes in streamflow at 14 gaging stations within the Santa Cruz River Watershed in southern Arizona, USA. For this purpose, the effect of 3 LULC, 3 precipitation (P), and 3 temperature (T) scenarios were tested individually. For the validation period, Percent Bias (PBIAS) values were >100% with the UC model for all gages, the values were between 0% and 100% with the OC model and within 20% with the SC model. Changes in streamflow predicted with the UC and OC models were compared with those of the SC model. This approach implicitly assumes that the SC model is “ideal”. Results indicated that the magnitude of both absolute and relative changes in streamflow due to LULC predicted with the UC and OC results were different than those of the SC model. The magnitude of absolute changes predicted with the UC and SC models due to climate change (both P and T) were also significantly different, but were not different for OC and SC models. Results clearly indicated that relative changes due to climate change predicted with the UC and OC were not significantly different than that predicted with the SC models. This result suggests that it is important to calibrate the model spatially to analyze the effect of LULC change but not as important for analyzing the relative change in streamflow due to climate change. This study also indicated that model calibration in not necessary to determine the direction of change in streamflow due to LULC and climate change.

The role of clouds and oceans in global greenhouse warming. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hoffert, M.I.

1996-10-01

This research focuses on assessing connections between anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and global climatic change. it has been supported since the early 1990s in part by the DOE ``Quantitative Links`` Program (QLP). A three-year effort was originally proposed to the QLP to investigate effects f global cloudiness on global climate and its implications for cloud feedback; and to continue the development and application of climate/ocean models, with emphasis on coupled effects of greenhouse warming and feedbacks by clouds and oceans. It is well-known that cloud and ocean processes are major sources of uncertainty in the ability to predict climatic changemore » from humankind`s greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. And it has always been the objective to develop timely and useful analytical tools for addressing real world policy issues stemming from anthropogenic climate change.« less

Regional assessment of Climate change impacts in the Mediterranean: the CIRCE project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iglesias, A.

2011-12-01

The CIRCE project has developed for the first time an assessment of the climate change impacts in the Mediterranean area. The objectives of the project are: to predict and to quantify physical impacts of climate change in the Mediterranean area; to evaluate the consequences of climate change for the society and the economy of the populations located in the Mediterranean area; to develop an integrated approach to understand combined effects of climate change; and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies in collaboration with regional stakeholders. The CIRCE Project, coordinated by the Instituto Nazionale di Geofisca e Vulcanologia, started on 1st April 2007 and ended in a policy conference in Rome on June 2011. CIRCE involves 64 partners from Europe, Middle East and North Africa working together to evaluate the best strategies of adaptation to the climate change in the Mediterranean basin. CIRCE wants to understand and to explain how climate will change in the Mediterranean area bringing together the natural sciences community and social community in a new integrated and comprehensive way. The project has investigated how global and Mediterranean climates interact, how the radiative properties of the atmosphere and the radiative fluxes vary, the interaction between cloudiness and aerosol, the modifications in the water cycle. Recent observed modifications in the climate variables and detected trends will be compared. The economic and social consequences of climate change are evaluated by analysing direct impacts on migration, tourism and energy markets together with indirect impacts on the economic system. CIRCE has produced results about the consequences on agriculture, forests and ecosystems, human health and air quality. The variability of extreme events in the future scenario and their impacts is also assessed. A rigorous common framework, including a set of quantitative indicators developed specifically for the Mediterranean environment was be developed and used in collaboration with regional stakeholders. Possible adaptation and mitigation strategies were be identified. The integrated results discussed by the project CIRCE will be presented in the first Regional Assessment of Climate Change in the Mediterranean area, to be published in September 2011 and will make a powerful contribution to the definition and evaluation of adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Impacts of climate change on large forest wildfire of Washington and Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Z.; Davis, R. J.; Yost, A.; Cohen, W. B.

2014-12-01

Climate changes in the 21st century were projected to have major impact on wildfire. The state of Washington and Oregon contains a tightly coupled forest ecosystem and fire regime. The objective of this study was to examine the impact of future climate changes for large wildfire in the two states. MAXENT algorithm was used to develop a large forest wildfire suitability model using historical fire for the 1971-2000 time period and validated for 1981-2010 time period . Input variables include climate (e.g. July-August temperature) and topographic variables (e.g. elevation). The model test AUC of 0.77±0.1. Using the predicted versus expected curve and methods described by Hirzel and others (Hirzel et al. 2006), we reclassified the model into four classes; low suitability (0-0.36), moderate suitability 0.36-0.5), high suitability (0.5-0.75), and very high suitability (0.75-1.0). To examine the future climate change impact, climate scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) from 33 different climate models were used to predict the large wildfire suitability from 1971-2100 using the NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) Downscaled Climate Projections (NEX-DCP30) dataset. Results from ensembles of all the climate scenarios showed that the area with high and very high suitability for large wildfire increased under all 4 climate scenarios from 1971 to 2100. However, under RCP 2.6, the area start to decline from 2080 while the other three scenarios keep increasing. On the extreme case of RCP 8.5, very high suitable area increases from less than 1% during 1971-2000 to 14.9% during 2070-2100. Details about temporal patterns for the study area and changes by ecoregions will be presented.

Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Griffith, Brad; Joyce, Linda A.; Kareiva, Peter; Keller, Brian D.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Peterson, Charles H.; Scott, J. Michael; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.

2008-01-01

Climate variables are key determinants of geographic distributions and biophysical characteristics of ecosystems, communities, and species. Climate change is therefore affecting many species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue into the future regardless of emissions mitigation, strategies for protecting climate-sensitive ecosystems through management will be increasingly important. While there will always be uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate impacts, and the effects of management, it is both possible and essential for adaptation to proceed using the best available science. This report provides a preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources in the United States. The term “adaptation” in this document refers to adjustments in human social systems (e.g., management) in response to climate stimuli and their effects. Since management always occurs in the context of desired ecosystem conditions or natural resource management goals, it is instructive to examine particular goals and processes used by different organizations to fulfill their objectives. Such an examination allows for discussion of specific adaptation options as well as potential barriers and opportunities for implementation. Using this approach, this report presents a series of chapters on the following selected management systems: National Forests, National Parks, National Wildlife Refuges, Wild and Scenic Rivers, National Estuaries, and Marine Protected Areas. For these chapters, the authors draw on the literature, their own expert opinion, and expert workshops composed of resource management scientists and representatives of managing agencies. The information drawn from across these chapters is then analyzed to develop the key synthetic messages presented below.

Quantitative analysis of the effect of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Liujiang River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

LI, X.

2017-12-01

Abstract: As human basic and strategic natural resources, Water resources have received an unprecedented challenge under the impacts of global climate change. Analyzing the variation characteristics of runoff and the effect of climate change and human activities on runoff could provide the basis for the reasonable utilization and management of water resources. Taking the Liujiang River Basin as the research object, the discharge data of hydrological station and meteorological data at 24 meteorological stations in the Guangxi Province as the basis, the variation characteristics of runoff and precipitation in the Liujiang River Basin was analyzed, and the quantitatively effect of climate change and human activities on runoff was proposed. The results showed that runoff and precipitation in the Liujiang River Basin had an increasing trend from 1964 to 2006. Using the method of accumulative anomaly and the orderly cluster method, the runoff series was divided into base period and change period. BP - ANN model and sensitivity coefficient method were used for quantifying the influences of climate change and human activities on runoff. We found that the most important factor which caused an increase trend of discharges in the Liujiang River Basin was precipitation. Human activities were also important factors which influenced the intra-annual distribution of runoff. Precipitation had a more sensitive influence to runoff variation than potential evaporation in the Liujiang River Basin. Key words: Liujiang River Basin, climate change, human activities, BP-ANN, sensitivity coefficient method

A multi-disciplinary approach for the integrated assessment of water alterations under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperotto, Anna; Torresan, Silvia; Molina, Jose Luis; Pulido Velazquez, Manuel; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

2017-04-01

Understanding the co-evolution and interrelations between natural and human pressures on water systems is required to ensure a sustainable management of resources under uncertain climate change conditions. To pursue multi-disciplinary research is therefore necessary to consider the multiplicity of stressors affecting water resources, take into account alternative perspectives (i.e. social, economic and environmental objective and priorities) and deal with uncertainty which characterize climate change scenarios. However, approaches commonly adopted in water quality assessment are predominantly mono-disciplinary, single-stressors oriented and apply concepts and models specific of different academic disciplines (e.g. physics, hydrology, ecology, sociology, economy) which, in fact, seldom shed their conceptual blinders failing to provide truly integrated results. In this context, the paper discusses the benefits and limits of adopting a multi-disciplinary approach where different knowledge domains collaborate and quantitative and qualitative information, coming from multiple conceptual and model-based research, are integrated in a harmonic manner. Specifically, Bayesian Networks are used as meta-modelling tool for structuring and combining the probabilistic information available in existing hydrological models, climate change and land use projections, historical observations and expert opinion. The developed network allows to perform a stochastic multi-risk assessment considering the interlacing between climate (i.e. irregularities in water regime) and land use changes (i.e. agriculture, urbanization) and their cascading impacts on water quality parameters (i.e. nutrients loadings). Main objective of the model is the development of multi-risk scenarios to assess and communicate the probability of not meeting a "Good chemical water status" over future timeframe taking into account projected climatic and not climatic conditions. The outcomes are finally used to identify tradeoffs between different water uses and perspectives, thus promoting the implementation of best practices for adaptation and management with ancillary co-benefits and cross-sectoral implications (i.e. tourism, fishing, biodiversity). Some preliminary results, describing the application of the model in the Dese-Zero river estuary, one of the main tributaries of the Venice Lagoon in Italy, will be here presented and discussed.

A problem-oriented approach to understanding adaptation: lessons learnt from Alpine Shire, Victoria Australia.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, Carolina

2010-05-01

Climate change is gaining attention as a significant strategic issue for localities that rely on their business sectors for economic viability. For businesses in the tourism sector, considerable research effort has sought to characterise the vulnerability to the likely impacts of future climate change through scenarios or ‘end-point' approaches (Kelly & Adger, 2000). Whilst useful, there are few demonstrable case studies that complement such work with a ‘start-point' approach that seeks to explore contextual vulnerability (O'Brien et al., 2007). This broader approach is inclusive of climate change as a process operating within a biophysical system and allows recognition of the complex interactions that occur in the coupled human-environmental system. A problem-oriented and interdisciplinary approach was employed at Alpine Shire, in northeast Victoria Australia, to explore the concept of contextual vulnerability and adaptability to stressors that include, but are not limited to climatic change. Using a policy sciences approach, the objective was to identify factors that influence existing vulnerabilities and that might consequently act as barriers to effective adaptation for the Shire's business community involved in the tourism sector. Analyses of results suggest that many threats, including the effects climate change, compete for the resources, strategy and direction of local tourism management bodies. Further analysis of conditioning factors revealed that many complex and interacting factors define the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the Shire's tourism sector to the challenges of global change, which collectively have more immediate implications for policy and planning than long-term future climate change scenarios. An approximation of the common interest, i.e. enhancing capacity in business acumen amongst tourism operators, would facilitate adaptability and sustainability through the enhancement of social capital in this business community. Kelly, P. M., & Adger, W. N. (2000). Theory and practice in assessing vulnerability to climatic change and facilitating adaptation. Climatic Change, 47, 325-352. O'Brien, K., Eriksen, S., Nygaard, L. P., & Schjolden, A. (2007). Why different interpretations of vulnerability matter in climate change discourses. Climate Policy, 7, 73-88.

Nonlinear responses of white spruce growth to climate variability in interior Alaska

Treesearch

A.H. Lloyd; P.A. Duffy; D.H. Mann

2013-01-01

Ongoing warming at high latitudes is expected to lead to large changes in the structure and function of boreal forests. Our objective in this research is to determine the climatic controls over the growth of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) at the warmest driest margins of its range in interior Alaska. We then use those relationships to...

Coupling climate and hydrological models to evaluate the impact of climate change on run of the river hydropower schemes from UK study sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasten-Zapata, Ernesto; Jones, Julie; Moggridge, Helen

2015-04-01

As climate change is expected to generate variations on the Earth's precipitation and temperature, the water cycle will also experience changes. Consequently, water users will have to be prepared for possible changes in future water availability. The main objective of this research is to evaluate the impacts of climate change on river regimes and the implications to the operation and feasibility of run of the river hydropower schemes by analyzing four UK study sites. Run of the river schemes are selected for analysis due to their higher dependence to the available river flow volumes when compared to storage hydropower schemes that can rely on previously accumulated water volumes (linked to poster in session HS5.3). Global Climate Models (GCMs) represent the main tool to assess future climate change. In this research, Regional Climate Models (RCMs), which dynamically downscale GCM outputs providing higher resolutions, are used as starting point to evaluate climate change within the study catchments. RCM daily temperature and precipitation will be downscaled to an appropriate scale for impact studies and bias corrected using different statistical methods: linear scaling, local intensity scaling, power transformation, variance scaling and delta change correction. The downscaled variables will then be coupled to hydrological models that have been previously calibrated and validated against observed daily river flow data. The coupled hydrological and climate models will then be used to simulate historic river flows that are compared to daily observed values in order to evaluate the model accuracy. As this research will employ several different RCMs (from the EURO-CORDEX simulations), downscaling and bias correction methodologies, greenhouse emission scenarios and hydrological models, the uncertainty of each element will be estimated. According to their uncertainty magnitude, a prediction of the best downscaling approach (or approaches) is expected to be obtained. The current progress of the project will be presented along with the steps to be followed in the future.

Assessing the Problem Formulation in an Integrated Assessment Model: Implications for Climate Policy Decision-Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G. G.; Reed, P. M.; Keller, K.

2014-12-01

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are often used with the intent to aid in climate change decisionmaking. Numerous studies have analyzed the effects of parametric and/or structural uncertainties in IAMs, but uncertainties regarding the problem formulation are often overlooked. Here we use the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE) to analyze the effects of uncertainty surrounding the problem formulation. The standard DICE model adopts a single objective to maximize a weighted sum of utilities of per-capita consumption. Decisionmakers, however, may be concerned with a broader range of values and preferences that are not captured by this a priori definition of utility. We reformulate the problem by introducing three additional objectives that represent values such as (i) reliably limiting global average warming to two degrees Celsius and minimizing both (ii) the costs of abatement and (iii) the damages due to climate change. We derive a set of Pareto-optimal solutions over which decisionmakers can trade-off and assess performance criteria a posteriori. We illustrate the potential for myopia in the traditional problem formulation and discuss the capability of this multiobjective formulation to provide decision support.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ingmann, P.; Readings, C. J.; Knott, K.

For the post-2000 time-frame two general classes of Earth Observation missions have been identified to address user requirements (see e.g. ESA, 1995), namely Earth Watch and Earth Explorer missions. One of the candidate Earth Explorer Missions selected for Phase A study is the Atmospheric Dynamics Mission which is intended to exploit a Doppler wind lidar, ALADIN, to measure winds in clear air (ESA, 1995 and ESA, 1996). It is being studied as a candidate for flight on the International Space Station (ISS) as an externally attached payload. The primary, long-term objective of the Atmospheric Dynamics Mission is to provide observationsmore » of wind profiles (e.g. radial wind component). Such data would be assimilated into numerical forecasting models leading to an improvement in objective analyses and hence in Numerical Weather Prediction. The mission would also provide data needed to address some of the key concerns of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) i.e. quantification of climate variability, validation and improvement of numerical models and process studies relevant to climate change. The newly acquired data would also help realize some of the objectives of the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS)« less

Pore Water Arsenic Dynamics in Rice Paddies Under Projected Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plaganas, M.; Wang, T.; Muehe, E. M.; Fendorf, S. E.

2016-12-01

Rice is one of the staple crops in the world, with 50% of the global population eating rice daily. Many rice-producing regions of the world are irrigated with groundwater contaminated with arsenic (As), and in particular South and Southeast Asia, where geogenic As is leached into the groundwater. Use of groundwater pervasively high in As leads to subsequent accumulation in paddy soils. Arsenic, a toxic metalloid, also decreases rice productivity and further jeopardizes food security. Hence, rice agriculture is concerned with its productivity in a climate change impacted future and the particular impacts of arsenic on yields. However, past studies do not address the prevalence of As in paddy soils or its fate in the rhizosphere and ultimate impact on the plant. The objective of our study was to determine changes in pore water As dynamics in the rhizosphere of rice plants grown on As-contaminated paddy soil under climate conditions projected for the end of the century. In order to address this objective, we designed greenhouse chambers with today's climate and projected climate conditions for the year 2100, specifically 5°C increase in temperature and doubled concentration of atmospheric CO2. We hypothesize that the effects of climate change with these conditions will increase the mobility of As in the rhizosphere, and thus, decrease rice growth in As-bearing paddies more than, so far, expected. We examined pore water geochemistry including pH and As concentrations, and correlate that to the height of the plants. Furthermore, the dynamics of other elements in the pore water such as carbon, iron, sulfur, manganese, and silica are further evaluated for their effects on rice growth. Arsenic will have an impact on rice production and conditions induced by future climatic conditions need to be considered for food security. Considering that climate change will decrease the global agricultural output, we should urgently consider adapting our agricultural practices to aid in the mitigation of As uptake into rice and into the diets of the billions of people that depend on the consumption of rice daily.

Environmental Suitability of Vibrio Infections in a Warming Climate: An Early Warning System

PubMed Central

Trinanes, Joaquin; Lohr, Wolfgang; Sudre, Bertrand; Löfdahl, Margareta; Martinez-Urtaza, Jaime; Nichols, Gordon L.; Rocklöv, Joacim

2017-01-01

Background: Some Vibrio spp. are pathogenic and ubiquitous in marine waters with low to moderate salinity and thrive with elevated sea surface temperature (SST). Objectives: Our objective was to monitor and project the suitability of marine conditions for Vibrio infections under climate change scenarios. Methods: The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) developed a platform (the ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer) to monitor the environmental suitability of coastal waters for Vibrio spp. using remotely sensed SST and salinity. A case-crossover study of Swedish cases was conducted to ascertain the relationship between SST and Vibrio infection through a conditional logistic regression. Climate change projections for Vibrio infections were developed for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results: The ECDC Vibrio Map Viewer detected environmentally suitable areas for Vibrio spp. in the Baltic Sea in July 2014 that were accompanied by a spike in cases and one death in Sweden. The estimated exposure–response relationship for Vibrio infections at a threshold of 16°C revealed a relative risk (RR)=1.14 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.27; p=0.024) for a lag of 2 wk; the estimated risk increased successively beyond this SST threshold. Climate change projections for SST under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios indicate a marked upward trend during the summer months and an increase in the relative risk of these infections in the coming decades. Conclusions: This platform can serve as an early warning system as the risk of further Vibrio infections increases in the 21st century due to climate change. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP2198 PMID:29017986

Change Ahead: Transient Scenarios for Long-term Water Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Beersma, Jules; Schellekens, Jaap

2013-04-01

While the use of an ensemble of transient scenarios is common in climate change studies, they are rarely used in water management studies. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Over the course of time society experiences, learns and adapts to changes and events, making policy responses part of a plausible future, and thus the success of a water management strategy. Exploring transient scenarios and policy options over time can support decision making on water management strategies in an uncertain and changing environment. We have developed and applied such a method, called exploring adaptation pathways (Haasnoot et al., 2012; Haasnoot et al., 2011). This method uses multiple realisations of transient scenarios to assess the efficacy of policy actions over time. In case specified objectives are not achieved anymore, an adaptation tipping point (Kwadijk et al., 2010) is reached. After reaching a tipping point, additional actions are needed to reach the objectives. As a result, a pathway emerges. In this presentation we describe the development of transient scenarios for long term water management, and how these scenarios can be used for long term water management under uncertainty. We illustrate this with thought experiments, and results from computational modeling experiment for exploring adaptation pathways in the lower Rhine delta. The results and the thought experiments show, among others, that climate variability is at least just as important as climate change for taking decisions in water management. References Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., Offermans, A., Beek, E., Deursen, W.A.v. (2012) Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment. Climatic Change 115, 795-819. Haasnoot, M., Middelkoop, H., van Beek, E., van Deursen, W.P.A. (2011) A Method to Develop Sustainable Water Management Strategies for an Uncertain Future. Sustainable Development 19, 369-381. Kwadijk, J.C.J., Haasnoot, M., Mulder, J.P.M., Hoogvliet, M.M.C., Jeuken, A.B.M., van der Krogt, R.A.A., van Oostrom, N.G.C., Schelfhout, H.A., van Velzen, E.H., van Waveren, H., de Wit, M.J.M. (2010) Using adaptation tipping points to prepare for climate change and sea level rise: a case study in the Netherlands. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 1, 729-740.

2008 Children's Health Protection Advisory Committee Meeting Agendas

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Objectives for two meetings in 2008 include discussing regulating greenhouse gas emissions, chemicals management, perchlorate in drinking water, climate change, National Children's Study, NAAQS, and healthy school environments.

Demonstrating the Error Budget for the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory Through Solar Irradiance Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thome, Kurtis; McCorkel, Joel; McAndrew, Brendan

2016-01-01

The Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) mission addresses the need to observe highaccuracy, long-term climate change trends and to use decadal change observations as a method to determine the accuracy of climate change. A CLARREO objective is to improve the accuracy of SI-traceable, absolute calibration at infrared and reflected solar wavelengths to reach on-orbit accuracies required to allow climate change observations to survive data gaps and observe climate change at the limit of natural variability. Such an effort will also demonstrate National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) approaches for use in future spaceborne instruments. The current work describes the results of laboratory and field measurements with the Solar, Lunar for Absolute Reflectance Imaging Spectroradiometer (SOLARIS) which is the calibration demonstration system (CDS) for the reflected solar portion of CLARREO. SOLARIS allows testing and evaluation of calibration approaches, alternate design and/or implementation approaches and components for the CLARREO mission. SOLARIS also provides a test-bed for detector technologies, non-linearity determination and uncertainties, and application of future technology developments and suggested spacecraft instrument design modifications. Results of laboratory calibration measurements are provided to demonstrate key assumptions about instrument behavior that are needed to achieve CLARREO's climate measurement requirements. Absolute radiometric response is determined using laser-based calibration sources and applied to direct solar views for comparison with accepted solar irradiance models to demonstrate accuracy values giving confidence in the error budget for the CLARREO reflectance retrieval.

Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

García Fernández, Cristina

2015-04-01

The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mitigation and adaptation are therefore complementary actions. In the long term, climate change without mitigation measures will likely exceed the adaptive capacity of natural, managed and human systems. Early adoption of mitigation measures would break the dependence on carbon-intensive infrastructures and reduce adaptation needs to climate change. It also can save on adaptation cost. Therefore mitigation is the key objective of the global warming problem but little is being done in this field. We will present some proposals of "preventive economically efficient" policies at a global and regional level which will constitute the complement to the adaptation aspect.

Climate change and air pollution jointly creating nightmare for tourism industry.

PubMed

Sajjad, Faiza; Noreen, Umara; Zaman, Khalid

2014-11-01

The objective of the study is to examine the long-run and causal relationship between climate change (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions, hydrofluorocarbons, per fluorocarbons, and sulfur hexafluoride), air pollution (i.e., methane emissions, nitrous oxide emissions, and carbon dioxide emissions), and tourism development indicators (i.e., international tourism receipts, international tourism expenditures, natural resource depletion, and net forest depletion) in the World's largest regions. The aggregate data is used for robust analysis in the South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, and East Asia and the Pacific regions, over a period of 1975-2012. The results show that climatic factors and air pollution have a negative impact on tourism indicators in the form of deforestation and natural resource depletion. The impact is evident, as we have seen the systematic eroding of tourism industry, due to severe changes in climate and increasing strain of air pollution. There are several channels of cause-effect relationship between the climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World's region. The study confirms the unidirectional, bidirectional, and causality independent relationship between climatic factors, air pollution, and tourism indicators in the World. It is conclusive that tourism industry is facing all time bigger challenges of reduce investment, less resources, and minor importance from the government agencies because of the two broad challenges, i.e., climate change and air pollution, putting them in a dismal state.

Impact Assessment of Pine Wilt Disease Using the Species Distribution Model and the CLIMEX Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

KIM, J. U.; Jung, H.

2016-12-01

The plant disease triangle consists of the host plant, pathogen and environment, but their interaction has not been considered in climate change adaptation policy. Our objectives are to predict the changes of a coniferous forest, pine wood nematodes (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) and pine sawyer beetles (Monochamus spp.), which is a cause of pine wilt disease in the Republic of Korea. We analyzed the impact of pine wilt disease on climate change by using the species distribution model (SDM) and the CLIMEX model. Area of coniferous forest will decline and move to northern and high-altitude area. But pine wood nematodes and pine sawyer beetles are going to spread because they are going to be in a more favorable environment in the future. Coniferous forests are expected to have high vulnerability because of the decrease in area and the increase in the risk of pine wilt disease. Such changes to forest ecosystems will greatly affect climate change in the future. If effective and appropriate prevention and control policies are not implemented, coniferous forests will be severely damaged. An adaptation policy should be created in order to protect coniferous forests from the viewpoint of biodiversity. Thus we need to consider the impact assessment of climate change for establishing an effective adaptation policy. The impact assessment of pine wilt disease using a plant disease triangle drew suitable results to support climate change adaptation policy.

Advancements in the use of speleothems as climate archives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, Corinne I.; Breecker, Daniel O.

2015-11-01

Speleothems have become a cornerstone of the approach to better understanding Earth's climatic teleconnections due to their precise absolute chronologies, their continuous or semicontinuous deposition and their global terrestrial distribution. We review the last decade of speleothem-related research, building off a similar review by McDermott (2004), in three themes - i) investigation of global teleconnections using speleothem-based climate reconstructions, ii) refinement of climate interpretations from speleothem proxies through cave monitoring, and iii) novel, technical methods of speleothem-based climate reconstructions. Speleothem records have enabled critical insight into the response of global hydroclimate to large climate changes. This includes the relevant forcings and sequence of climatic responses involved in glacial terminations and recognition of a global monsoon response to climate changes on orbital and millennial time scales. We review advancements in understanding of the processes that control speleothem δ13C values and introduce the idea of a direct atmospheric pCO2 influence. We discuss progress in understanding kinetic isotope fractionation, which, with further advances, may help quantify paleoclimate changes despite non-equilibrium formation of speleothems. This feeds into the potential of proxy system modeling to consider climatic, hydrological and biogeochemical processes with the objective of quantitatively interpreting speleothem proxies. Finally, we provide an overview of emerging speleothem proxies and novel approaches using existing proxies. Most recently, technical advancements made in the measurement of fluid inclusions are now yielding reliable determinations of paleotemperatures.

Climate Change in Colorado: Developing a Synthesis of the Science to Support Water Resources Management and Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, A. J.; Barsugli, J. J.; Averyt, K. B.; Deheza, V.; Udall, B.

2008-12-01

In 2007 Colorado's Governor Ritter issued a Colorado Climate Action Plan, in response to the risks associated with climate change and sets a goal to adapt to those climate changes "that cannot be avoided." The Western Water Assessment, a NOAA funded RISA program, was commissioned to do a synthesis of the science on climate change aimed at planners, decisionmakers, and policymakers in water in Colorado. Changes in Colorado's climate and implications for water resources are occurring in a global context. The objective of the report is to communicate the state of the science regarding the physical aspects of climate change that are important for evaluating impacts on Colorado's water resources, and to support state efforts to develop a water adaptation plan. However, the identification of specific climate change impacts on water resources is beyond the scope of this report. Water managers have a long history of adapting to changing circumstances, including changes in economies and land use, environmental concerns, and population growth. Climate change will further affect the decisions made about use of water. However, current water management practices may not be robust enough to cope with this climate change. This presentation reports on the process of developing the report and challenges we faced. We developed the report based on ongoing interactions with the water management community and discussions with them about their decision processes and needs. A second presentation (see Barsugli et al) presents the synthesis findings from the report. We followed the IPCC WG1 model of observations, attribution, and projections. However, many published studies and datasets include information about Colorado, there are few climate studies that focus only on the state. Consequently, many important scientific analyses for Colorado have not been done, and Colorado- specific information is often imbedded in or averaged with studies of the larger Western U.S. We used findings from peer-reviewed regional studies, and conducted new analyses derived from existing datasets and model projections, and took advantage of new regional analyses. In addition to the IPCC Fourth Assessment, we also took advantage of very new Climate Change Science Program Assessments. Many water managers, although often technically savvy engineers, hydrologists and other professionals, but are not trained as climate or atmospheric scientists, and seeks to complexity by using Fahrenheit units, minimizing use of or defining jargon terms, and re-plotting published figures/data for simplicity. The report is written at a less technical level than the IPCC reports, and some features are intended to raise the level of climate literacy of our audience about climate and how climate science is done. For example, the report includes a primer on climate models and theory that situates Colorado in the context of global climate change and describes how the unique features of the state -- such as the complex topography -- relate to interpreting and using climate change projections. This report responds to Colorado state agencies' and water management community needs to understanding of climate change and is an initial step in establishing Colorado's water-related adaptation needs. Another impact of this report is as an experiment in climate services for climate change information and exploring the challenges of communicating the information to diverse decisionmakers.

A Science-Faith Partnership to Provide Education and Facilitate Action on Climate Change and Energy Use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cervenec, J. M.; Hitzhusen, G.; Ward, S.; Foster, C.

2014-12-01

In 2009, the Byrd Polar Research Center (BPRC) and Ohio Interfaith Power and Light (OhIPL) collaborated on a climate change education summit for scientists and clergy. Since that first program, a robust partnership has been nurtured where researchers at the center regularly contribute to events within the faith community. In 2014 alone, BPRC supported OhIPL in hosting a Teach-In event on climate change before a live audience that was simultaneously broadcast to three remote sites across Ohio; a State of the Climate event at the Ohio Statehouse that featured presentations by a scientist, a policymaker, and a member of the faith community; and an Earthkeeping Summit to bring together members of the faith community from across Ohio. OhIPL has helped BPRC fulfill one of our mission objectives of communicating science to a broad community. OhIPL engages houses of worship of all denominations through faith and education with a goal of moving them towards actions that reduce energy consumption. Houses of worship take actions for various reasons - including creation care, concerns of social justice related to climate change, or a desire to save money through building efficiency.

Operational approaches to managing forests of the future in Mediterranean regions within a context of changing climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, Scott L.; Millar, Constance I.; Collins, Brandon M.

2010-04-01

Many US forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired conditions. While there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. To respond to this uncertainty, managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies into plans in response to changing climates. Adaptive strategies include resistance options, resilience options, response options, and realignment options. Our objectives are to present ideas that could be useful in developing plans under changing climates that could be applicable to forests with Mediterranean climates. We believe that managing for species persistence at the broad ecoregion scale is the most appropriate goal when considering the effects of changing climates. Such a goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. Allowing fundamental ecosystem processes to operate within forested landscapes will be critical. Management and political institutions will have to acknowledge and embrace uncertainty in the future since we are moving into a time period with few analogs and inevitably, there will be surprises.

Drought Tolerance during Reproductive Development is Important for Increasing wheat yield Potential under Climate change in Europe.

PubMed

Senapati, Nimai; Stratonovitch, Pierre; Paul, Matthew J; Semenov, Mikhail A

2018-06-12

Drought stress during reproductive development could drastically reduce grain number and wheat yield, but quantitative evaluation of such effect is unknown under climate change. The objectives of this study were to a) evaluate potential yield benefits of drought tolerance during reproductive development for wheat ideotypes under climate change in Europe, and b) identify potential cultivar parameters for improvement. We used the Sirius wheat model to optimise drought tolerant (DT) and drought sensitive (DS) wheat ideotypes under future 2050 climate scenario at 13 contrasting sites, representing major wheat growing regions in Europe. Averaged over the sites, DT ideotypes achieved 13.4% greater yield compared to DS, with the double yield stability for DT. However, the performances of the ideotypes were site dependent. Mean yield of DT was 28-37% greater compared to DS in southern Europe. In contrast, no yield difference (≤ 1%) between ideotypes was found in north-western Europe. An intermediate yield benefit of 10-23% was found due to drought tolerance in central and eastern Europe. We conclude that tolerance to drought stress during reproductive development is important for high yield potentials and greater yield stability of wheat under climate change in Europe.

Exploring Pacific Northwest ecosystem resilience: packaging climate change science for federal managers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bachelet, D. M.

2014-12-01

Climate change is projected to jeopardize ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest. Managing ecosystems for future resilience requires collaboration, innovation and communication. The abundance of data and documents describing the uncertainty around both climate change projections and impacts has become challenging to managers who have little funding and limited time to digest and incorporate these materials into planning and implementation documents. We worked with US Forest Service and BLM managers to help them develop vulnerability assessments and identify on-the-ground strategies to address climate change challenges on the federal lands in northwest Oregon (Siuslaw, Willamette and Mt. Hood National Forests; Eugene and Salem BLM Districts). We held workshops to promote dialogue about climate change, which were particularly effective in fostering discussions between the managers who often do not have the time to share their knowledge and compare experiences across administrative boundaries. We used the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) framework to identify measurable management objectives and rapidly assess local vulnerabilities. We used databasin.org to centralize usable information, including state-of-the-art CMIP5 climate projections, for the mandated assessments of vulnerability and resilience. We introduced participants to a decision support framework providing opportunities to develop more effective adaptation strategies. We built a special web page to hold the information gathered at the workshops and provide easy access to climate change information. We are now working with several Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) to design gateways - conservation atlases - to their relevant data repositories on databasin.org and working with them to develop web tools that can provide usable information for their own vulnerability assessments.

Estimating the Impact and Spillover Effect of Climate Change on Crop Yield in Northern Ghana.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botchway, E.

2016-12-01

In tropical regions of the world human-induced climate change is likely to impact negatively on crop yields. To investigate the impact of climate change and its spillover effect on mean and variance of crop yields in northern Ghana, the Just and Pope stochastic production function and the Spatial Durbin model were adopted. Surprisingly, the results suggest that both precipitation and average temperature have positive effects on mean crop yield during the wet season. Wet season average temperature has a significant spillover effect in the region, whereas precipitation during the wet season has only one significant spillover effect on maize yield. Wet season precipitation does not have a strong significant effect on crop yield despite the rainfed nature of agriculture in the region. Thus, even if there are losers and winners as a result of future climate change at the regional level, future crop yield would largely depend on future technological development in agriculture, which may improve yields over time despite the changing climate. We argue, therefore, that technical improvement in farm management such as improved seeds and fertilizers, conservation tillage and better pest control, may have a more significant role in increasing observed crop productivity levels over time. So investigating the relative importance of non-climatic factors on crop yield may shed more light on where appropriate interventions can help in improving crop yields. Climate change, also, needs to be urgently assessed at the level of the household, so that poor and vulnerable people dependent on agriculture can be appropriately targeted in research and development activities whose object is poverty alleviation.

Baseline for Climate Change: Modeling Watershed Aquatic Biodiversity Relative to Environmental and Anthropogenic Factors

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maurakis, Eugene G

Objectives of the two-year study were to (1) establish baselines for fish and macroinvertebrate community structures in two mid-Atlantic lower Piedmont watersheds (Quantico Creek, a pristine forest watershed; and Cameron Run, an urban watershed, Virginia) that can be used to monitor changes relative to the impacts related to climate change in the future; (2) create mathematical expressions to model fish species richness and diversity, and macroinvertebrate taxa and macroinvertebrate functional feeding group taxa richness and diversity that can serve as a baseline for future comparisons in these and other watersheds in the mid-Atlantic region; and (3) heighten people’s awareness, knowledgemore » and understanding of climate change and impacts on watersheds in a laboratory experience and interactive exhibits, through internship opportunities for undergraduate and graduate students, a week-long teacher workshop, and a website about climate change and watersheds. Mathematical expressions modeled fish and macroinvertebrate richness and diversity accurately well during most of the six thermal seasons where sample sizes were robust. Additionally, hydrologic models provide the basis for estimating flows under varying meteorological conditions and landscape changes. Continuations of long-term studies are requisite for accurately teasing local human influences (e.g. urbanization and watershed alteration) from global anthropogenic impacts (e.g. climate change) on watersheds. Effective and skillful translations (e.g. annual potential exposure of 750,000 people to our inquiry-based laboratory activities and interactive exhibits in Virginia) of results of scientific investigations are valuable ways of communicating information to the general public to enhance their understanding of climate change and its effects in watersheds.« less

Determining the contributions of urbanisation and climate change to NPP variations over the last decade in the Yangtze River Delta, China.

PubMed

Wu, Shaohua; Zhou, Shenglu; Chen, Dongxiang; Wei, Zongqiang; Dai, Liang; Li, Xingong

2014-02-15

Terrestrial net primary production (NPP) is an important measure of global change, and identifying the relative contributions of urbanisation and climate change to NPP is important for understanding the impact of human and natural influences on terrestrial systems and the carbon cycle. The objective of this study was to reveal how urbanisation and climate drive changes in NPP. Satellite-based estimates of NPP collected over a 12-year period (1999-2010) were analysed to identify NPP variations in the Yangtze River Delta. Temporal and spatial analysis methods were used to identify the relationships among NPP, nighttime light urbanisation index values, and climatic factors from pixel to regional scales. The NPP of the entire Yangtze River Delta decreased slightly at a rate of -0.5 g C m(-2)a(-1) from 1999 to 2010, but this change was not significant. However, in the urban region, NPP decreased significantly (p<0.05) at a rate of -4.7 g C m(-2)a(-1) due to urbanisation processes. A spatially explicit method was proposed to partition the relative contributions of urbanisation and climate change to NPP variation. The results revealed that the urbanisation factor is the main driving force for NPP change in high-speed urbanisation areas, and the factor accounted for 47% of the variations. However, in the forest and farm regions, the NPP variation was mainly controlled by climate change and residual factors. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB V1.0) Contribution to CMIP6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Kovats, R. Sari;

The Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services Advisory Board (VIACS AB v1.0) contribution to CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Teichmann, Claas; Arnell, Nigel W.; Carter, Timothy R.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Frieler, Katja; Goodess, Clare M.; Hewitson, Bruce; Horton, Radley; Sari Kovats, R.; Lotze, Heike K.; Mearns, Linda O.; Navarra, Antonio; Ojima, Dennis S.; Riahi, Keywan; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Themessl, Matthias; Vincent, Katharine

2016-09-01

This paper describes the motivation for the creation of the Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation and Climate Services (VIACS) Advisory Board for the Sixth Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), its initial activities, and its plans to serve as a bridge between climate change applications experts and climate modelers. The climate change application community comprises researchers and other specialists who use climate information (alongside socioeconomic and other environmental information) to analyze vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation of natural systems and society in relation to past, ongoing, and projected future climate change. Much of this activity is directed toward the co-development of information needed by decision-makers for managing projected risks. CMIP6 provides a unique opportunity to facilitate a two-way dialog between climate modelers and VIACS experts who are looking to apply CMIP6 results for a wide array of research and climate services objectives. The VIACS Advisory Board convenes leaders of major impact sectors, international programs, and climate services to solicit community feedback that increases the applications relevance of the CMIP6-Endorsed Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs). As an illustration of its potential, the VIACS community provided CMIP6 leadership with a list of prioritized climate model variables and MIP experiments of the greatest interest to the climate model applications community, indicating the applicability and societal relevance of climate model simulation outputs. The VIACS Advisory Board also recommended an impacts version of Obs4MIPs and indicated user needs for the gridding and processing of model output.

Calculating net primary productivity of forest ecosystem with G4M model: case study on South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, S.; Forsell, N.; Kindermann, G.; Lee, D. K.

2015-12-01

Net primary productivity (NPP) is considered as an important indicator for forest ecosystem since the role of forest is highlighted as a stepping stone for mitigating climate change. Especially rapidly urbanizing countries which have high carbon dioxide emission have large interest in calculating forest NPP under climate change. Also maximizing carbon sequestration in forest sector has became a global goal to minimize the impacts of climate change. Therefore, the objective of this research is estimating carbon stock change under the different climate change scenarios by using G4M (Global Forestry Model) model in South Korea. We analyzed four climate change scenarios in different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). In this study we used higher resolution data (1kmx1km) to produce precise estimation on NPP from regionalized four climate change scenarios in G4M model. Finally, we set up other environmental variables for G4M such as water holding capacity, soil type and elevation. As a result of this study, temperature showed significant trend during 2011 to 2100. Average annual temperature increased more than 5℃ in RCP 8.5 scenario while 1℃ increased in RCP 2.6 scenario. Each standard deviation of the annual average temperature showed similar trend. Average annual precipitation showed similarity within four scenarios. However the standard deviation of average annual precipitation is higher in RCP8.5 scenario which indicates the ranges of precipitation is wider in RCP8.5 scenario. These results present that climate indicators such as temperature and precipitation have uncertainties in climate change scenarios. NPP has changed from 5-13tC/ha/year in RCP2.6 scenario to 9-21 tC/ha/year in RCP8.5 scenario in 2100. In addition the spatial distribution of NPP presented different trend among the scenarios. In conclusion we calculated differences in temperature and precipitation and NPP change in different climate change scenarios. This study can be applied for maximizing carbon seqestration of vegetation.

The future of spaceborne altimetry. Oceans and climate change: A long-term strategy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koblinsky, C. J. (Editor); Gaspar, P. (Editor); Lagerloef, G. (Editor)

1992-01-01

The ocean circulation and polar ice sheet volumes provide important memory and control functions in the global climate. Their long term variations are unknown and need to be understood before meaningful appraisals of climate change can be made. Satellite altimetry is the only method for providing global information on the ocean circulation and ice sheet volume. A robust altimeter measurement program is planned which will initiate global observations of the ocean circulation and polar ice sheets. In order to provide useful data about the climate, these measurements must be continued with unbroken coverage into the next century. Herein, past results of the role of the ocean in the climate system is summarized, near term goals are outlined, and requirements and options are presented for future altimeter missions. There are three basic scientific objectives for the program: ocean circulation; polar ice sheets; and mean sea level change. The greatest scientific benefit will be achieved with a series of dedicated high precision altimeter spacecraft, for which the choice of orbit parameters and system accuracy are unencumbered by requirements of companion instruments.

Climate change and adverse health events: community perceptions from the Tanahu district of Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, Shiva Raj; Mani Bhandari, Parash; Issa, Rita; Neupane, Dinesh; Gurung, Swadesh; Khanal, Vishnu

2015-03-01

Nepal is a country economically dependent on climate-sensitive industries. It is highly vulnerable to the environmental, social, economic and health impacts of climate change. The objective of this study is to explore community perceptions of climate variability and human health risks. In this letter, we present a cross sectional study conducted between August 2013 and July 2014 in the Tanahu district of Nepal. Our analysis is based on 258 face-to-face interviews with household heads utilizing structured questionnaires. Over half of the respondents (54.7%) had perceived a change in climate, 53.9% had perceived an increase in temperature in the summer and 49.2% had perceived an increase in rainfall during the rainy season. Half of the respondents perceived an increase in the number of diseases during the summer, 46.5% perceived an increase during the rainy season and 48.8% during winter. Only 8.9% of the respondents felt that the government was doing enough to prevent climate change and its impact on their community. Belonging to the Janajati (indigenous) ethnic group, living in a pakki, super-pakki house and belonging to poor or mid-level income were related to higher odds of perceiving climate variability. Illiterates were less likely to perceive climate variability. Respondents living in a pakki house, super-pakki, or those who were poor were more likely to perceive health risks. Illiterates were less likely to perceive health risks.

Soil Organic Carbon dynamics in agricultural soils of Veneto Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bampa, F. B.; Morari, F. M.; Hiederer, R. H.; Toth, G. T.; Giandon, P. G.; Vinci, I. V.; Montanarella, L. M.; Nocita, M.

2012-04-01

One of the eight soil threats expressed in the European Commission's Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection (COM (2006)231 final) it's the decline in Soil Organic Matter (SOM). His preservation is recognized as with the objective to ensure that the soils of Europe remain healthy and capable of supporting human activities and ecosystems. One of the key goals of the strategy is to maintain and improve Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) levels. As climate change is identified as a common element in many of the soil threats, the European Commission (EC) intends to assess the actual contribution of the soil protection to climate change mitigation and the effects of climate change on the possible depletion of SOM. A substantial proportion of European land is occupied by agriculture, and consequently plays a crucial role in maintaining natural resources. Organic carbon preservation and sequestration in the EU's agricultural soils could have some potential to mitigate the effects of climate change, particularly linked to preventing certain land use changes and maintaining SOC stocks. The objective of this study is to assess the SOC dynamics in agricultural soils (cropland and grassland) at regional scale, focusing on changes due to land use. A sub-objective would be the evaluation of the most used land management practices and their effect on SOC content. This assessment aims to determine the geographical distribution of the potential GHG mitigation options, focusing on hot spots in the EU, where mitigation actions would be particularly efficient and is linked with the on-going work in the JRC SOIL Action. The pilot area is Veneto Region. The data available are coming from different sources, timing and involve different variables as: soil texture, climate, soil disturbance, managements and nutrients. The first source of data is the LUCAS project (Land Use/Land Cover Area Frame statistical Survey). Started in 2001, the LUCAS project aims to monitor changes in land cover/use and management of the EU territory by field observations of geo-referenced points. In 2009, a topsoil (0-30 cm) module was included to the survey and a subset of around 21,000 sites was sampled in 23 Member States. The second source is a soil survey monitoring pilot campaign carried in Veneto Region last year. The pilot campaign has been organized with the collaboration between JRC, University of Padova and ARPAV Veneto. The scope was to apply the LUCAS methodology to an experimental soil survey of 40 samples. The selection of the points to survey has been done on the basis of the LUCAS project related to Veneto Region, pedo-climatic and management unit conditions and the database on soils belonging to ARPAV Soil Unit, collected ante 2000. Data started to be investigated and permit to show changes in SOC content in a decade for different land use/cover and climatic areas. Through the bulk density data collected and the data already available from ARPAV library, it's possible to evaluate the Carbon stocks of Veneto region. Possible changes in Carbon can be related to land use changes and different strategies of management practices adopted over time.

The Global Climate Dashboard: a Software Interface to Stream Comprehensive Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gardiner, N.; Phillips, M.; NOAA Climate Portal Dashboard

2011-12-01

The Global Climate Dashboard is an integral component of NOAA's web portal to climate data, services, and value-added content for decision-makers, teachers, and the science-attentive public (www.clmate.gov). The dashboard provides a rapid view of observational data that demonstrate climate change and variability, as well as outputs from the Climate Model Intercomparison Project version 3, which was built to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change fourth assessment. The data shown in the dashboard therefore span a range of climate science disciplines with applications that serve audiences with diverse needs. The dashboard is designed with reusable software components that allow it to be implemented incrementally on a wide range of platforms including desktops, tablet devices, and mobile phones. The underlying software components support live streaming of data and provide a way of encapsulating graph sytles and other presentation details into a device-independent standard format that results in a common visual look and feel across all platforms. Here we describe the pedagogical objectives, technical implementation, and the deployment of the dashboard through climate.gov and partner web sites and describe plans to develop a mobile application using the same framework.

Projecting Heat-Related Mortality Impacts Under a Changing Climate in the New York City Region

PubMed Central

Knowlton, Kim; Lynn, Barry; Goldberg, Richard A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Hogrefe, Christian; Rosenthal, Joyce Klein; Kinney, Patrick L.

2007-01-01

Objectives. We sought to project future impacts of climate change on summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan region. Methods. Current and future climates were simulated over the northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation). Results. Projected regional increases in heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about 25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage increases than less-urbanized counties. Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in heat-related premature mortality. PMID:17901433

Global Climate Change: Using Field Studies to Prepare the Next Generation of Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, T. C.; Hare, J.

2004-05-01

Global Climate Change is a new and invigorating concept in the pre-college classroom. To some it portends the altering of the Earth's climate by introducing anthropogenic influences and for others the natural progression of the Earth's systems. Regardless, climate change involves a plethora of environmental interactions and comprehension is a challenge for both teachers and students. This paper addresses a field studies program that prepares students to complete research projects associated with climate models affecting montane environments. It emphasizes a partnership between researchers from universities, government agencies, and public schools and their support of pre-college students in inquiry learning and research activities. Beginning in 1994 students from a Pennsylvania high school and schools in Scotland have engaged in biannual holistic studies of montane and glacial environments with the objective of completing investigations concerning the energy budgets of these environments. This paper will focus on 2000 and 2002, and the support and partnership of Dr. Jeff Hare and CIRES in designing, supporting, and providing professional interpretations,while assisting teachers and students toward the completion of recognized papers regarding climate studies. Introducing students to the employment and operation of complex field equipment will be discussed.

A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanson, R.T.; Flint, L.E.; Flint, A.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Faunt, C.C.; Cayan, D.; Schmid, W.

2012-01-01

Potential climate change effects on aspects of conjunctive management of water resources can be evaluated by linking climate models with fully integrated groundwater-surface water models. The objective of this study is to develop a modeling system that links global climate models with regional hydrologic models, using the California Central Valley as a case study. The new method is a supply and demand modeling framework that can be used to simulate and analyze potential climate change and conjunctive use. Supply-constrained and demand-driven linkages in the water system in the Central Valley are represented with the linked climate models, precipitation-runoff models, agricultural and native vegetation water use, and hydrologic flow models to demonstrate the feasibility of this method. Simulated precipitation and temperature were used from the GFDL-A2 climate change scenario through the 21st century to drive a regional water balance mountain hydrologic watershed model (MHWM) for the surrounding watersheds in combination with a regional integrated hydrologic model of the Central Valley (CVHM). Application of this method demonstrates the potential transition from predominantly surface water to groundwater supply for agriculture with secondary effects that may limit this transition of conjunctive use. The particular scenario considered includes intermittent climatic droughts in the first half of the 21st century followed by severe persistent droughts in the second half of the 21st century. These climatic droughts do not yield a valley-wide operational drought but do cause reduced surface water deliveries and increased groundwater abstractions that may cause additional land subsidence, reduced water for riparian habitat, or changes in flows at the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta. The method developed here can be used to explore conjunctive use adaptation options and hydrologic risk assessments in regional hydrologic systems throughout the world.

Regionalizing Africa: Patterns of Precipitation Variability in Observations and Global Climate Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Badr, Hamada S.; Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2016-01-01

Many studies have documented dramatic climatic and environmental changes that have affected Africa over different time scales. These studies often raise questions regarding the spatial extent and regional connectivity of changes inferred from observations and proxies and/or derived from climate models. Objective regionalization offers a tool for addressing these questions. To demonstrate this potential, applications of hierarchical climate regionalizations of Africa using observations and GCM historical simulations and future projections are presented. First, Africa is regionalized based on interannual precipitation variability using Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data for the period 19812014. A number of data processing techniques and clustering algorithms are tested to ensure a robust definition of climate regions. These regionalization results highlight the seasonal and even month-to-month specificity of regional climate associations across the continent, emphasizing the need to consider time of year as well as research question when defining a coherent region for climate analysis. CHIRPS regions are then compared to those of five GCMs for the historic period, with a focus on boreal summer. Results show that some GCMs capture the climatic coherence of the Sahel and associated teleconnections in a manner that is similar to observations, while other models break the Sahel into uncorrelated subregions or produce a Sahel-like region of variability that is spatially displaced from observations. Finally, shifts in climate regions under projected twenty-first-century climate change for different GCMs and emissions pathways are examined. A projected change is found in the coherence of the Sahel, in which the western and eastern Sahel become distinct regions with different teleconnections. This pattern is most pronounced in high-emissions scenarios.

Earth System Monitoring, Introduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orcutt, John

This section provides sensing and data collection methodologies, as well as an understanding of Earth's climate parameters and natural and man-made phenomena, to support a scientific assessment of the Earth system as a whole, and its response to natural and human-induced changes. The coverage ranges from climate change factors and extreme weather and fires to oil spill tracking and volcanic eruptions. This serves as a basis to enable improved prediction and response to climate change, weather, and natural hazards as well as dissemination of the data and conclusions. The data collection systems include satellite remote sensing, aerial surveys, and land- and ocean-based monitoring stations. Our objective in this treatise is to provide a significant portion of the scientific and engineering basis of Earth system monitoring and to provide this in 17 detailed articles or chapters written at a level for use by university students through practicing professionals. The reader is also directed to the closely related sections on Ecological Systems, Introduction and also Climate Change Modeling Methodology, Introduction as well as Climate Change Remediation, Introduction to. For ease of use by students, each article begins with a glossary of terms, while at an average length of 25 print pages each, sufficient detail is presented for use by professionals in government, universities, and industries. The chapters are individually summarized below.

Climate change, aeroallergens, natural particulates, and human health in Australia: state of the science and policy.

PubMed

Beggs, Paul John; Bennett, Charmian Margaret

2011-03-01

The objective of this article is to systematically review and assess what is known about the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates, and the associated human health impacts, and to examine responses to these in Australia, focusing on adaptation. Prior research was searched using several general and discipline-specific research databases. The review concludes that whereas there is little original research on the impacts of climate change on aeroallergens and other naturally derived particulates in Australia, or the human health consequences of these, research from overseas suggests that these impacts may be adverse and of considerable magnitude. More research is required to assess the impacts of climate change on these airborne particles and associated diseases in Australia and other parts of the Asia-Pacific. There are important policy implications of this review. There is a need for enhanced monitoring of the atmospheric environment and associated health conditions in Australia. Education about climate change and human health in general, and air quality and related diseases specifically, is required for the community, health professionals, and others. Improvements are needed in the preparedness of infrastructure, such as health care facilities and early warning systems, particularly for aeroallergens, and all of these adaptive policy responses require further research.

Adopting public values and climate change adaptation strategies in urban forest management: A review and analysis of the relevant literature.

PubMed

Ordóñez Barona, Camilo

2015-12-01

Urban trees are a dominant natural element in cities; they provide important ecosystem services to urban citizens and help urban areas adapt to climate change. Many rationales have been proposed to provide a purpose for urban forest management, some of which have been ineffective in addressing important ecological and social management themes. Among these rationales we find a values-based perspective, which sees management as a process where the desires of urban dwellers are met. Another perspective is climate change adaptation, which sees management as a process where urban forest vulnerability to climate change is reduced and resilience enhanced. Both these rationales have the advantage of complementing, enhancing, and broadening urban forest management objectives. A critical analysis of the literature on public values related to urban forests and climate change adaptation in the context of urban forests is undertaken to discuss what it means to adopt these two issues in urban forest management. The analysis suggests that by seeing urban forest management as a process by which public values are satisfied and urban-forest vulnerabilities to climate change are reduced, we can place issues such as naturalization, adaptive management, and engaging people in management at the centre of urban forest management. Focusing urban forest management on these issues may help ensure the success of programs focused on planting more trees and increasing citizen participation in urban forest management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring students' epistemological knowledge of models and modelling in science: results from a teaching/learning experience on climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tasquier, Giulia; Levrini, Olivia; Dillon, Justin

2016-03-01

The scientific community has been debating climate change for over two decades. In the light of certain arguments put forward by the aforesaid community, the EU has recommended a set of innovative reforms to science teaching such as incorporating environmental issues into the scientific curriculum, thereby helping to make schools a place of civic education. However, despite these European recommendations, relatively little emphasis is still given to climate change within science curricula. Climate change, although potentially engaging for students, is a complex topic that poses conceptual difficulties and emotional barriers, as well as epistemological challenges. Whilst the conceptual and emotional barriers have already been the object of several studies, students' reactions to the epistemological issues raised by climate changes have so far been rarely explored in science education research and thus are the main focus of this paper. This paper describes a study concerning the implementation of teaching materials designed to focus on the epistemological role of 'models and the game of modelling' in science and particularly when dealing with climate change. The materials were implemented in a course of 15 hours (five 3-hour lessons) for a class of Italian secondary-school students (grade 11; 16-17 years old). The purpose of the study is to investigate students' reactions to the epistemological dimension of the materials, and to explore if and how the material enabled them to develop their epistemological knowledge on models.

Social vulnerability and climate variability in southern Brazil: a TerraPop case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adamo, S. B.; Fitch, C. A.; Kugler, T.; Doxsey-Whitfield, E.

2014-12-01

Climate variability is an inherent characteristic of the Earth's climate, including but not limited to climate change. It affects and impacts human society in different ways, depending on the underlying socioeconomic vulnerability of specific places, social groups, households and individuals. This differential vulnerability presents spatial and temporal variations, and is rooted in historical patterns of development and relations between human and ecological systems. This study aims to assess the impact of climate variability on livelihoods and well-being, as well as their changes over time and across space, and for rural and urban populations. The geographic focus is Southern Brazil-the states of Parana, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul-- and the objectives include (a) to identify and map critical areas or hotspots of exposure to climate variability (temperature and precipitation), and (b) to identify internal variation or differential vulnerability within these areas and its evolution over time (1980-2010), using newly available integrated data from the Terra Populus project. These data include geo-referenced climate and agricultural data, and data describing demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of individuals, households and places.

Multi-Temporal Multi-Sensor Analysis of Urbanization and Environmental/Climate Impact in China for Sustainable Urban Development

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ban, Yifang; Gong, Peng; Gamba, Paolo; Taubenbock, Hannes; Du, Peijun

2016-08-01

The overall objective of this research is to investigate multi-temporal, multi-scale, multi-sensor satellite data for analysis of urbanization and environmental/climate impact in China to support sustainable planning. Multi- temporal multi-scale SAR and optical data have been evaluated for urban information extraction using innovative methods and algorithms, including KTH- Pavia Urban Extractor, Pavia UEXT, and an "exclusion- inclusion" framework for urban extent extraction, and KTH-SEG, a novel object-based classification method for detailed urban land cover mapping. Various pixel- based and object-based change detection algorithms were also developed to extract urban changes. Several Chinese cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou are selected as study areas. Spatio-temporal urbanization patterns and environmental impact at regional, metropolitan and city core were evaluated through ecosystem service, landscape metrics, spatial indices, and/or their combinations. The relationship between land surface temperature and land-cover classes was also analyzed.The urban extraction results showed that urban areas and small towns could be well extracted using multitemporal SAR data with the KTH-Pavia Urban Extractor and UEXT. The fusion of SAR data at multiple scales from multiple sensors was proven to improve urban extraction. For urban land cover mapping, the results show that the fusion of multitemporal SAR and optical data could produce detailed land cover maps with improved accuracy than that of SAR or optical data alone. Pixel-based and object-based change detection algorithms developed with the project were effective to extract urban changes. Comparing the urban land cover results from mulitemporal multisensor data, the environmental impact analysis indicates major losses for food supply, noise reduction, runoff mitigation, waste treatment and global climate regulation services through landscape structural changes in terms of decreases in service area, edge contamination and fragmentation. In terms ofclimate impact, the results indicate that land surface temperature can be related to land use/land cover classes.

Using Microsimulation to Estimate the Future Health and Economic Costs of Salmonellosis under Climate Change in Central Queensland, Australia

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background: The incidence of salmonellosis, a costly foodborne disease, is rising in Australia. Salmonellosis increases during high temperatures and rainfall, and future incidence is likely to rise under climate change. Allocating funding to preventative strategies would be best informed by accurate estimates of salmonellosis costs under climate change and by knowing which population subgroups will be most affected. Objective: We used microsimulation models to estimate the health and economic costs of salmonellosis in Central Queensland under climate change between 2016 and 2036 to inform preventative strategies. Methods: We projected the entire population of Central Queensland to 2036 by simulating births, deaths, and migration, and salmonellosis and two resultant conditions, reactive arthritis and postinfectious irritable bowel syndrome. We estimated salmonellosis risks and costs under baseline conditions and under projected climate conditions for Queensland under the A1FI emissions scenario using composite projections from 6 global climate models (warm with reduced rainfall). We estimated the resulting costs based on direct medical expenditures combined with the value of lost quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) based on willingness-to-pay. Results: Estimated costs of salmonellosis between 2016 and 2036 increased from 456.0 QALYs (95% CI: 440.3, 473.1) and AUD29,900,000 million (95% CI: AUD28,900,000, AUD31,600,000), assuming no climate change, to 485.9 QALYs (95% CI: 469.6, 503.5) and AUD31,900,000 (95% CI: AUD30,800,000, AUD33,000,000) under the climate change scenario. Conclusion: We applied a microsimulation approach to estimate the costs of salmonellosis and its sequelae in Queensland during 2016–2036 under baseline conditions and according to climate change projections. This novel application of microsimulation models demonstrates the models’ potential utility to researchers for examining complex interactions between weather and disease to estimate future costs. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1370 PMID:29233795

Advance strategy for climate change adaptation and mitigation in cities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varquez, A. C. G.; Kanda, M.; Darmanto, N. S.; Sueishi, T.; Kawano, N.

2017-12-01

An on-going 5-yr project financially supported by the Ministry of Environment, Japan, has been carried out to specifically address the issue of prescribing appropriate adaptation and mitigation measures to climate change in cities. Entitled "Case Study on Mitigation and Local Adaptation to Climate Change in an Asian Megacity, Jakarta", the project's relevant objectives is to develop a research framework that can consider both urbanization and climate change with the main advantage of being readily implementable for all cities around the world. The test location is the benchmark city, Jakarta, Indonesia, with the end focus of evaluating the benefits of various mitigation and adaptation strategies in Jakarta and other megacities. The framework was designed to improve representation of urban areas when conducting climate change investigations in cities; and to be able to quantify separately the impacts of urbanization and climate change to all cities globally. It is comprised of a sophisticated, top-down, multi-downscaling approach utilizing a regional model (numerical weather model) and a microscale model (energy balance model and CFD model), with global circulation models (GCM) as input. The models, except the GCM, were configured to reasonably consider land cover, urban morphology, and anthropogenic heating (AH). Equally as important, methodologies that can collect and estimate global distribution of urban parametric and AH datasets are continually being developed. Urban growth models, climate scenario matrices that match representative concentration pathways with shared socio-economic pathways, present distribution of socio-demographic indicators such as population and GDP, existing GIS datasets of urban parameters, are utilized. From these tools, future urbanization (urban morphological parameters and AH) can be introduced into the models. Sensitivity using various combinations of GCM and urbanization can be conducted. Furthermore, since the models utilize parameters that can be readily modified to suit certain countermeasures, adaptation and mitigation strategies can be evaluated using thermal comfort and other social indicators. With the approaches introduced through this project, a deeper understanding of urban-climate interactions in the changing global climate can be achieved.

High Resolution Land Surface Modeling over the NEF Basin in the Chilean Patagonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.

2017-12-01

Stakeholders and policy makers perceive that water and climate change adaptation are among the most vulnerable issues that need to be addressed. Therefore, there is a need not only from the scientific community but also from the society to use integrated methodologies that link advances in climatology with hydrology to provide data that helps us to provide adaptation strategies. The Andes and the Chilean-Argentinean Patagonia have been steadily warming up to 0.5 Celsius degrees per decades at the same time that precipitation is decreasing by 10 to 12 % per decade. In the future is expected that these trends will continue which will have impacts in the annual water budget. The Chilean Patagonia has brought a lot of attention during last decade because two hydroelectric project seek to build dams in one of the most pristine environments in the world. Also, in the Baker River basin a series of Glacier Lakes Outburst Flood have occurred which is perceived as an undeniable consequence of the effects of climate change in the glacier system. Major attention is mainly situated in the impact of climate change in glaciers contribution to sea level rise, GLOF studies given the numerous supra glacier lakes that are forming, and the study of stream flow point observation. The objectives of this research are: 1) Study the historical trends of precipitation, temperature, land cover changes and streamflow available in the Baker Basin; 2) Use a couple glacier model with a land surface model to predict the evolution of glaciers and their effects in the water availability. To address these objectives, I will analyze trends in hydro meteorology observations and correlation with trends in Land Cover Changes. Use the WRF-hydro framework to generate data in a small watershed that will allow to calibrate a high resolution hydro glaciology model to understand the partition between glaciered and non-glaciered runoff. The parameters estimated in the small domain could have the potential to be transfer to a regional setting and pseudo climate data will be used to study the impacts of climate change in the Baker River Basin system hydrology. The expected results are: 1) Land cover change maps and trends, and their relationship to changes in streamflow, and climate observations. 2) a calibrated hydro glaciology model for a catchment in the NEF river Basin

Vulnerability of social-ecological system to climate change in Mongolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakinuma, K.; Yanagawa, A.; Sasaki, T.; Kanae, S.

2017-12-01

Coping with future climate changes are one of the most important issues in the world. IPCC (2014) suggested that vulnerability and exposure of social-ecological systems to extreme climatic events (hazard) determine the impact of climate changes. Although the schematic framework is widely accepted, there are high uncertainty of vulnerability of social and ecological systems and it makes difficult to examine it in empirical researches. Our objective is to assess the climate change impact on the social-ecological system in Mongolia. We review researches about trends of climate (Hazard), vegetation, pastoral mobility (Vulnerability) and livestock distribution (Exposure) across Mongolia Climate trends are critical for last several decades and thus hazard may be increasing in Mongolia. Temperature is increasing with high confidence in all regions. Precipitation are slightly decreasing with medium confidence across the country, especially in northern and central regions. Exposure would also be increasing especially in northern, central and western regions, because livestock population are concentrating these regions after 1990. Generally, less productive ecosystems (e.g. few plant productivity and less species richness) are vulnerable to extreme climatic events such as drought. In that sense, southern region may be more vulnerable to climate changes than other regions. However, if we focus on pastoral mobility forms for drought, we get contractive conclusions. Pastoralists in southern region keep mobility to variable and scarce vegetation while pastoralists in northern region less mobile because of stable and much vegetation. Exclusive managements in northern region is able to maximized the number of livestock only under stable precipitation regimes. But at the same time, it is difficult to escape from hazardous areas when it is drought. Thus, in term of rangeland management, northern region would be more vulnerable to increase of drought intensity. Although northern and central regions have high ecological productivity, they have high livestock density (high exposure) and their rangeland management don't adapt well to drought (high vulnerability). Therefore, we suggested that these regions have to prepare to climate changes for sustainable rangeland managements.

The Data Platform for Climate Research and Action: Introducing Climate Watch

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hennig, R. J.; Ge, M.; Friedrich, J.; Lebling, K.; Carlock, G.; Arcipowska, A.; Mangan, E.; Biru, H.; Tankou, A.; Chaudhury, M.

2017-12-01

The Paris Agreement, adopted through Decision 1/CP.21, brings all nations together to take on ambitious efforts to combat climate change. Open access to climate data supporting climate research, advancing knowledge, and informing decision making is key to encourage and strengthen efforts of stakeholders at all levels to address and respond to effects of climate change. Climate Watch is a robust online data platform developed in response to the urgent needs of knowledge and tools to empower climate research and action, including those of researchers, policy makers, the private sector, civil society, and all other non-state actors. Building on the rapid growing technology of open data and information sharing, Climate Watch is equipped with extensive amount of climate data, informative visualizations, concise yet efficient user interface, and connection to resources users need to gather insightful information on national and global progress towards delivering on the objective of the Convention and the Paris Agreement. Climate Watch brings together hundreds of quantitative and qualitative indicators for easy explore, visualize, compare, download at global, national, and sectoral levels: Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for more than 190 countries over the1850-2014 time period, covering all seven Kyoto Gases following IPCC source/sink categories; Structured information on over 150 NDCs facilitating the clarity, understanding and transparency of countries' contributions to address climate change; Over 6500 identified linkages between climate actions in NDCs across the 169 targets of the sustainable development goals (SDG); Over 200 indicators describing low carbon pathways from models and scenarios by integrated assessment models (IAMs) and national sources; and Data on vulnerability and risk, policies, finance, and many more. Climate Watch platform is developed as part of the broader efforts within the World Resources Institute, the NDC Partnership, and in collaboration with GIZ, UNFCCC, World Bank, and Climate Analytics.

Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Public Health Practice: Using Adaptive Management to Increase Adaptive Capacity and Build Resilience

PubMed Central

McDowell, Julia Z.; Luber, George

2011-01-01

Background: Climate change is expected to have a range of health impacts, some of which are already apparent. Public health adaptation is imperative, but there has been little discussion of how to increase adaptive capacity and resilience in public health systems. Objectives: We explored possible explanations for the lack of work on adaptive capacity, outline climate–health challenges that may lie outside public health’s coping range, and consider changes in practice that could increase public health’s adaptive capacity. Methods: We conducted a substantive, interdisciplinary literature review focused on climate change adaptation in public health, social learning, and management of socioeconomic systems exhibiting dynamic complexity. Discussion: There are two competing views of how public health should engage climate change adaptation. Perspectives differ on whether climate change will primarily amplify existing hazards, requiring enhancement of existing public health functions, or present categorically distinct threats requiring innovative management strategies. In some contexts, distinctly climate-sensitive health threats may overwhelm public health’s adaptive capacity. Addressing these threats will require increased emphasis on institutional learning, innovative management strategies, and new and improved tools. Adaptive management, an iterative framework that embraces uncertainty, uses modeling, and integrates learning, may be a useful approach. We illustrate its application to extreme heat in an urban setting. Conclusions: Increasing public health capacity will be necessary for certain climate–health threats. Focusing efforts to increase adaptive capacity in specific areas, promoting institutional learning, embracing adaptive management, and developing tools to facilitate these processes are important priorities and can improve the resilience of local public health systems to climate change. PMID:21997387

Addressing Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Together: A Global Assessment of Agriculture and Forestry Projects.

PubMed

Kongsager, Rico; Locatelli, Bruno; Chazarin, Florie

2016-02-01

Adaptation and mitigation share the ultimate purpose of reducing climate change impacts. However, they tend to be considered separately in projects and policies because of their different objectives and scales. Agriculture and forestry are related to both adaptation and mitigation: they contribute to greenhouse gas emissions and removals, are vulnerable to climate variations, and form part of adaptive strategies for rural livelihoods. We assessed how climate change project design documents (PDDs) considered a joint contribution to adaptation and mitigation in forestry and agriculture in the tropics, by analyzing 201 PDDs from adaptation funds, mitigation instruments, and project standards [e.g., climate community and biodiversity (CCB)]. We analyzed whether PDDs established for one goal reported an explicit contribution to the other (i.e., whether mitigation PDDs contributed to adaptation and vice versa). We also examined whether the proposed activities or expected outcomes allowed for potential contributions to the two goals. Despite the separation between the two goals in international and national institutions, 37% of the PDDs explicitly mentioned a contribution to the other objective, although only half of those substantiated it. In addition, most adaptation (90%) and all mitigation PDDs could potentially report a contribution to at least partially to the other goal. Some adaptation project developers were interested in mitigation for the prospect of carbon funding, whereas mitigation project developers integrated adaptation to achieve greater long-term sustainability or to attain CCB certification. International and national institutions can provide incentives for projects to harness synergies and avoid trade-offs between adaptation and mitigation.

Fire modulates climate change response of simulated aspen distribution across topoclimatic gradients in a semi-arid montane landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yang, Jian; Weisberg, Peter J.; Shinneman, Douglas; Dilts, Thomas E.; Earnst, Susan L.; Scheller, Robert M

2015-01-01

Content Changing aspen distribution in response to climate change and fire is a major focus of biodiversity conservation, yet little is known about the potential response of aspen to these two driving forces along topoclimatic gradients. Objective This study is set to evaluate how aspen distribution might shift in response to different climate-fire scenarios in a semi-arid montane landscape, and quantify the influence of fire regime along topoclimatic gradients. Methods We used a novel integration of a forest landscape succession and disturbance model (LANDIS-II) with a fine-scale climatic water deficit approach to simulate dynamics of aspen and associated conifer and shrub species over the next 150 years under various climate-fire scenarios. Results Simulations suggest that many aspen stands could persist without fire for centuries under current climate conditions. However, a simulated 2–5 °C increase in temperature caused a substantial reduction of aspen coverage at lower elevations and a modest increase at upper elevations, leading to an overall reduction of aspen range at the landscape level. Increasing fire activity may favor aspen increase at its upper elevation limits adjacent to coniferous forest, but may also favor reduction of aspen at lower elevation limits adjacent to xeric shrubland. Conclusions Our study highlights the importance of incorporating fine-scale terrain effects on climatic water deficit and ecohydrology when modeling species distribution response to climate change. This modeling study suggests that climate mitigation and adaptation strategies that use fire would benefit from consideration of spatial context at landscape scales.

Strategies for reforestation under uncertain future climates: guidelines for Alberta, Canada.

PubMed

Gray, Laura K; Hamann, Andreas

2011-01-01

Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions.

SeaRISE: A Multidisciplinary Research Initiative to Predict Rapid Changes in Global Sea Level Caused by Collapse of Marine Ice Sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bindschadler, Robert A. (Editor)

1990-01-01

The results of a workshop held to discuss the role of the polar ice sheets in global climate change are reported. The participants agreed that the most important aspect of the ice sheets' involvement in climate change is the potential of marine ice sheets to cause a rapid change in global sea level. To address this concern, a research initiative is called for that considers the full complexity of the coupled atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere-lithosphere system. This initiative, called SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) has the goal of predicting the contribution of marine ice sheets to rapid changes in global sea level in the next decade to few centuries. To attain this goal, a coordinated program of multidisciplinary investigations must be launched with the linked objectives of understanding the current state, internal dynamics, interactions, and history of this environmental system. The key questions needed to satisfy these objectives are presented and discussed along with a plan of action to make the SeaRISE project a reality.

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity.

PubMed

Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G; Schmoldt, Daniel L; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A

2017-03-21

The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981-2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity

PubMed Central

Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.

2017-01-01

The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ∼70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981–2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making. PMID:28265075

Determining climate effects on US total agricultural productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Xin-Zhong; Wu, You; Chambers, Robert G.; Schmoldt, Daniel L.; Gao, Wei; Liu, Chaoshun; Liu, Yan-An; Sun, Chao; Kennedy, Jennifer A.

2017-03-01

The sensitivity of agricultural productivity to climate has not been sufficiently quantified. The total factor productivity (TFP) of the US agricultural economy has grown continuously for over half a century, with most of the growth typically attributed to technical change. Many studies have examined the effects of local climate on partial productivity measures such as crop yields and economic returns, but these measures cannot account for national-level impacts. Quantifying the relationships between TFP and climate is critical to understanding whether current US agricultural productivity growth will continue into the future. We analyze correlations between regional climate variations and national TFP changes, identify key climate indices, and build a multivariate regression model predicting the growth of agricultural TFP based on a physical understanding of its historical relationship with climate. We show that temperature and precipitation in distinct agricultural regions and seasons explain ˜70% of variations in TFP growth during 1981-2010. To date, the aggregate effects of these regional climate trends on TFP have been outweighed by improvements in technology. Should these relationships continue, however, the projected climate changes could cause TFP to drop by an average 2.84 to 4.34% per year under medium to high emissions scenarios. As a result, TFP could fall to pre-1980 levels by 2050 even when accounting for present rates of innovation. Our analysis provides an empirical foundation for integrated assessment by linking regional climate effects to national economic outcomes, offering a more objective resource for policy making.

3 CFR 13509 - Executive Order 13509 of June 23, 2009. Establishing a White House Council on Automotive...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... Energy and Climate Change; and (25) the heads of such other executive departments, agencies, and offices...; (c) Provide recommendations to the President on changes to Federal policies and programs to address... adversely affected by auto industry changes. Sec. 4. Outreach. Consistent with the objectives set forth in...

Effect of Seasonal Changes in Soil Temperature and Moisture on Wood Consumption and Foraging Activity of the Formosan Subterranean Termite (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The objective of this study was to determine whether seasonal changes cause significant effects on the foraging activity and wood consumption of C. formosanus in New Orleans and how changes in specific climatic variables affect termite foraging behavior. There was a significant correlation between w...

From climate-change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st Century California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.

2005-01-01

The uncertainties associated with climate-change projections for California are unlikely to disappear any time soon, and yet important long-term decisions will be needed to accommodate those potential changes. Projection uncertainties have typically been addressed by analysis of a few scenarios, chosen based on availability or to capture the extreme cases among available projections. However, by focusing on more common projections rather than the most extreme projections (using a new resampling method), new insights into current projections emerge: (1) uncertainties associated with future greenhouse-gas emissions are comparable with the differences among climate models, so that neither source of uncertainties should be neglected or underrepresented; (2) twenty-first century temperature projections spread more, overall, than do precipitation scenarios; (3) projections of extremely wet futures for California are true outliers among current projections; and (4) current projections that are warmest tend, overall, to yield a moderately drier California, while the cooler projections yield a somewhat wetter future. The resampling approach applied in this paper also provides a natural opportunity to objectively incorporate measures of model skill and the likelihoods of various emission scenarios into future assessments.

Pollinators in peril? A multipark approach to evaluating bee communities in habitats vulnerable to effects from climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rykken, Jessica; Rodman, Ann; Droege, Sam; Grundel, Ralph

2014-01-01

In 2010, collaborators from the National Park Service (Ann Rodman, Yellowstone National Park), USGS (Sam Droege and Ralph Grundel), and Harvard University (Jessica Rykken) were awarded funding from the NPS Climate Change Response Program to launch just such an investigation in almost 50 units of the National Park System (fig. 1). The main objectives of this multiyear project were to: Compare bee communities in three “vulnerable” habitats (high elevation, inland arid, coastal) and paired “common” habitats, representative of the landscape matrix, in order to determine whether vulnerable habitats have a distinctive bee fauna that may be at higher risk under climate change scenarios. Inform natural resource managers at each park about the bee fauna at their paired sites, including the presence of rare and endemic species, and make suggestions for active management strategies to promote native bee habitat if warranted. Increase awareness among park natural resource staffs, interpreters, and visitors of native bee diversity and natural history, the essential role of bees in maintaining healthy ecosystems, and potential threats from climate change to pollinator-dependent ecosystems.

Evaluating the impact of climate change on landslide occurrence, hazard, and risk: from global to regional scale.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

According to the fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, "warming of the climate system is unequivocal". The influence of climate changes on slope stability and landslides is also undisputable. Nevertheless, the quantitative evaluation of the impact of global warming, and the related changes in climate, on landslides remains a complex question to be solved. The evidence that climate and landslides act at only partially overlapping spatial and temporal scales complicates the evaluation. Different research fields, including e.g., climatology, physics, hydrology, geology, hydrogeology, geotechnics, soil science, environmental science, and social science, must be considered. Climatic, environmental, demographic, and economic changes are strictly correlated, with complex feedbacks, to landslide occurrence and variation. Thus, a holistic, multidisciplinary approach is necessary. We reviewed the literature on landslide-climate studies, and found a bias in their geographical distribution, with several studies centered in Europe and North America, and large parts of the world not investigated. We examined advantages and drawbacks of the approaches adopted to evaluate the effects of climate variations on landslides, including prospective modelling and retrospective methods that use landslide and climate records, and paleo-environmental information. We found that the results of landslide-climate studies depend more on the emission scenarios, the global circulation models, the regional climate models, and the methods to downscale the climate variables, than on the description of the variables controlling slope processes. Using ensembles of projections based on a range of emissions scenarios would reduce (or at least quantify) the uncertainties in the obtained results. We performed a preliminary global assessment of the future landslide impact, presenting a global distribution of the projected impact of climate change on landslide activity and abundance. Where global warming is expected to increase, the frequency and intensity of severe rainfall events, a primary trigger of shallow, rapid-moving landslides that cause many landslide fatalities, an increase in the number of people exposed to landslide risk is to be expected. Furthermore, we defined a group of objective and reproducible methods for the quantitative evaluation of the past and future (expected) variations in landslide occurrence and distribution, and in the impact and risk to the population, as a result of changes in climatic and environmental factors (particularly, land use changes), at regional scale. The methods were tested in a southern Italian region, but they can easily applied in other physiographic and climatic regions, where adequate information is available.

Effects of climate change and shifts in forest composition on forest net primary production

Treesearch

Jyh-Min Chiang; Louts [Louis] R. Iverson; Anantha Prasad; Kim J. Brown

2008-01-01

Forests are dynamic in both structure and species composition, and these dynamics are strongly influenced by climate. However, the net effects of future tree species composition on net primary production (NPP) are not well understood. The objective of this work was to model the potential range shifts of tree species (DISTRIB Model) and predict their impacts on NPP (...

PAST CLIMATES, FORESTS, AND DISTURBANCES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA, CALIFORNIA: UNDERSTANDING THE PAST TO MANAGE FOR THE FUTURE

Treesearch

William F. Laudenslayer; Carl N. Skinner

1995-01-01

The forests of the Sierra Nevada have been altered for millennia by climate, natural disturbances, and more recently by the activities of humans. Management of these forests and their resources as ecosystems to meet diverse objectives, requires an understanding of the conditions under which existing forests developed and how they have changed through time. Recently...

Toward a whole-landscape approach for sustainable land use in the tropics.

PubMed

DeFries, R; Rosenzweig, C

2010-11-16

Increasing food production and mitigating climate change are two primary but seemingly contradictory objectives for tropical landscapes. This special feature examines synergies and trade-offs among these objectives. Four themes emerge from the papers: the important roles of both forest and agriculture sectors for climate mitigation in tropical countries; the minor contribution from deforestation-related agricultural expansion to overall food production at global and continental scales; the opportunities for synergies between improved food production and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions through diversion of agricultural expansion to already-cleared lands, improved soil, crop, and livestock management, and agroforestry; and the need for targeted policy and management interventions to make these synergistic opportunities a reality. We conclude that agricultural intensification is a key factor to meet dual objectives of food production and climate mitigation, but there is no single panacea for balancing these objectives in all tropical landscapes. Place-specific strategies for sustainable land use emerge from assessments of current land use, demographics, and other biophysical and socioeconomic characteristics, using a whole-landscape, multisector perspective.

Increasing the Chances of Implementing NGSS by Bolstering High School Teacher Knowledge and Views about Climate Change, a NICE NASA Example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bleicher, R. E.

2013-12-01

Purpose of Presentation This paper will highlight how the results of this initial study foreshadow possibilities of NGSS (NGSS, 2013) playing out in high school classrooms in the near future. Research findings from a three-year NASA-funded project, Promoting Educational Leadership in Climate Science (PEL) will be presented. Objectives and Research Questions PEL aims to increase climate science literacy in high school teachers and students through scientific argumentation using authentic NASA data. This initial study focuses on the following questions: 1. Are teachers increasing their climate science knowledge? 2. Are there changes in teachers' views about climate change? 3. What resources and are provided to assist teachers to develop their students' scientific argumentation skills? Theoretical Framework Because of the changing nature of climate science knowledge and its relevance to societal issues, teachers must be able to understand the basic concepts and remain up-to-date on scientific issues. The need for a more thorough understanding of the concepts of climate change are highlighted by recent studies on the public perceptions and attitudes on the subject (Leiserowitz et al., 2013). Teachers need to understand the difference between skepticism as a characteristic of the nature of science and denial of climate change (Sommervillle & Hasol, 2011). Teachers need to understand the natural and human-induced factors affecting climate, and the potential consequences, and ways to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Generally, when teachers learn about a subject, they demonstrate more self-efficacy to teach about it (Bleicher & Lindgren, 2005). Analytic Strategy Data were analyzed using paired-samples t-tests, independent t -tests, and ANOVA. Latent class analysis was employed to analyze the Six America's Survey data. Correlational studies were conducted to examine possible relationships among variables. Findings in Brief Teachers' content knowledge increased significantly and teachers were more concerned about climate change after participation in PEL. Teachers with higher self-efficacy demonstrated higher climate change science knowledge. Teachers indicated that they felt more confident and were motivated to implement classroom lessons with their students that employed resources rich in NASA climate data and focused on scientific argumentation. References Bleicher, R.E., & Lindgren, J. (2005). Success in learning science and preservice science teaching self-efficacy. Journal of Science Teacher Education. 16, 205-225. Leiserowitz, A., Maibach, E., Roser-Renouf, C., Feinberg, G., & Howe, P.(2013) Climate change in the American mind: Americans' global warming beliefs and attitudes in April, 2013 Yale University and George Mason University. New Haven, CT: Yale Project on Climate Change Communication. Retrieved 7/26/13 from: http://climatechangecommunication.org/sites/default/files/reports/Climate-Beliefs-April-2013.pdf Next Generation Science Standards (NGSS). (2013). Available at http://www.nextgenscience.org/print/121. Somerville, R. C. J. & Hassol, S. J. (2011). Communicating the science of climate change. Physics Today, 64(10), 48-53.

Links between the built environment, climate and population health: interdisciplinary environmental change research in New York City.

PubMed

Rosenthal, Joyce Klein; Sclar, Elliott D; Kinney, Patrick L; Knowlton, Kim; Crauderueff, Robert; Brandt-Rauf, Paul W

2007-10-01

Global climate change is expected to pose increasing challenges for cities in the following decades, placing greater stress and impacts on multiple social and biophysical systems, including population health, coastal development, urban infrastructure, energy demand, and water supplies. Simultaneously, a strong global trend towards urbanisation of poverty exists, with increased challenges for urban populations and local governance to protect and sustain the wellbeing of growing cities. In the context of these 2 overarching trends, interdisciplinary research at the city scale is prioritised for understanding the social impacts of climate change and variability and for the evaluation of strategies in the built environment that might serve as adaptive responses to climate change. This article discusses 2 recent initiatives of The Earth Institute at Columbia University (EI) as examples of research that integrates the methods and objectives of several disciplines, including environmental health science and urban planning, to understand the potential public health impacts of global climate change and mitigative measures for the more localised effects of the urban heat island in the New York City metropolitan region. These efforts embody 2 distinct research approaches. The New York Climate & Health Project created a new integrated modeling system to assess the public health impacts of climate and land use change in the metropolitan region. The Cool City Project aims for more applied policy-oriented research that incorporates the local knowledge of community residents to understand the costs and benefits of interventions in the built environment that might serve to mitigate the harmful impacts of climate change and variability, and protect urban populations from health stressors associated with summertime heat. Both types of research are potentially useful for understanding the impacts of environmental change at the urban scale, the policies needed to address these challenges, and to train scholars capable of collaborative approaches across the social and biophysical sciences.

Workplace heat stress, health and productivity – an increasing challenge for low and middle-income countries during climate change

PubMed Central

Kjellstrom, Tord; Holmer, Ingvar; Lemke, Bruno

2009-01-01

Background Global climate change is already increasing the average temperature and direct heat exposure in many places around the world. Objectives To assess the potential impact on occupational health and work capacity for people exposed at work to increasing heat due to climate change. Design A brief review of basic thermal physiology mechanisms, occupational heat exposure guidelines and heat exposure changes in selected cities. Results In countries with very hot seasons, workers are already affected by working environments hotter than that with which human physiological mechanisms can cope. To protect workers from excessive heat, a number of heat exposure indices have been developed. One that is commonly used in occupational health is the Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT). We use WBGT to illustrate assessing the proportion of a working hour during which a worker can sustain work and the proportion of that same working hour that (s)he needs to rest to cool the body down and maintain core body temperature below 38°C. Using this proportion a ‘work capacity’ estimate was calculated for selected heat exposure levels and work intensity levels. The work capacity rapidly reduces as the WBGT exceeds 26–30°C and this can be used to estimate the impact of increasing heat exposure as a result of climate change in tropical countries. Conclusions One result of climate change is a reduced work capacity in heat-exposed jobs and greater difficulty in achieving economic and social development in the countries affected by this somewhat neglected impact of climate change. PMID:20052422

Coupling Processes Between Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ko, Malcolm; Weisenstein, Debra; Rodriquez, Jose; Danilin, Michael; Scott, Courtney; Shia, Run-Lie; Eluszkiewicz, Janusz; Sze, Nien-Dak; Stewart, Richard W. (Technical Monitor)

1999-01-01

This is the final report for NAS5-97039 for work performed between December 1996 and November 1999. The overall objective of this project is to improve the understanding of coupling processes among atmospheric chemistry, aerosol and climate, all important for quantitative assessments of global change. Among our priority are changes in ozone and stratospheric sulfate aerosol, with emphasis on how ozone in the lower stratosphere would respond to natural or anthropogenic changes. The work emphasizes two important aspects: (1) AER's continued participation in preparation of, and providing scientific input for, various scientific reports connected with assessment of stratospheric ozone and climate. These include participation in various model intercomparison exercises as well as preparation of national and international reports. (2) Continued development of the AER three-wave interactive model to address how the transport circulation will change as ozone and the thermal properties of the atmosphere change, and assess how these new findings will affect our confidence in the ozone assessment results.

Rainfall pattern variability as climate change impact in The Wallacea Region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pujiastuti, I.; Nurjani, E.

2018-04-01

The objective of the study is to observe the characteristic variability of rainfall pattern in the city located in every rainfall type, local (Kendari), monsoon (Manado), and equatorial (Palu). The result will be compared to determine which has the most significantly precipitation changing due to climate change impact. Rainfall variability in Indonesia illustrates precipitation variation thus the important variability is the variability of monthly rainfall. Monthly precipitation data for the period of 1961-2010 are collected from Indonesian Agency for Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency. This data is calculated with the normal test statistical method to analyze rainfall variability. The result showed the pattern of trend and variability of rainfall in every city with the own characteristic which determines the rainfall type. Moreover, there is comparison of rainfall pattern changing between every rainfall type. This information is useful for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies especially in water resource management form precipitation as well as the occurrence of meteorological disasters.

Health Impacts of Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries: A Regional Assessment of Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Priorities

PubMed Central

McIver, Lachlan; Kim, Rokho; Woodward, Alistair; Hales, Simon; Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Hashizume, Masahiro; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Iddings, Steven; Naicker, Jyotishma; Bambrick, Hilary; McMichael, Anthony J.; Ebi, Kristie L.

2015-01-01

Background: Between 2010 and 2012, the World Health Organization Division of Pacific Technical Support led a regional climate change and health vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning project, in collaboration with health sector partners, in 13 Pacific island countries—Cook Islands, Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Niue, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu. Objective: We assessed the vulnerabilities of Pacific island countries to the health impacts of climate change and planned adaptation strategies to minimize such threats to health. Methods: This assessment involved a combination of quantitative and qualitative techniques. The former included descriptive epidemiology, time series analyses, Poisson regression, and spatial modeling of climate and climate-sensitive disease data, in the few instances where this was possible; the latter included wide stakeholder consultations, iterative consensus building, and expert opinion. Vulnerabilities were ranked using a “likelihood versus impact” matrix, and adaptation strategies were prioritized and planned accordingly. Results: The highest-priority climate-sensitive health risks in Pacific island countries included trauma from extreme weather events, heat-related illnesses, compromised safety and security of water and food, vector-borne diseases, zoonoses, respiratory illnesses, psychosocial ill-health, non-communicable diseases, population pressures, and health system deficiencies. Adaptation strategies relating to these climate change and health risks could be clustered according to categories common to many countries in the Pacific region. Conclusion: Pacific island countries are among the most vulnerable in the world to the health impacts of climate change. This vulnerability is a function of their unique geographic, demographic, and socioeconomic characteristics combined with their exposure to changing weather patterns associated with climate change, the health risks entailed, and the limited capacity of the countries to manage and adapt in the face of such risks. Citation: McIver L, Kim R, Woodward A, Hales S, Spickett J, Katscherian D, Hashizume M, Honda Y, Kim H, Iddings S, Naicker J, Bambrick H, McMichael AJ, Ebi KL. 2016. Health impacts of climate change in Pacific island countries: a regional assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation priorities. Environ Health Perspect 124:1707–1714; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509756 PMID:26645102

Inservice Training as an Instrument for Change.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lefforge, Orland S.

This plan for improving community college instruction uses an in-service training program as a primary vehicle for change. The objectives to be achieved are: (1) develop a climate for educational innovation, (2) develop individual initiative in professional growth, (3) coordinate training resources, faculty efforts, and college goals, and (4)…

Transformational Leadership and Innovative Climate: An Examination of the Mediating Effect of Psychological Empowerment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sagnak, Mesut; Kuruoz, Mehmet; Polat, Betül; Soylu, Ayse

2015-01-01

Problem Statement: The most important characteristic of today's organizations is too much change. The demand of organizations to fulfill objectives within dynamic environmental aspects has required strong leadership. Organizations' accommodation to changes, generating new ideas, adapting these ideas to organizations, and also the individual and…

Dynamic Agroecological Zones for the Inland Pacific Northwest, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huggins, D. R.; Rupp, R.; Gessler, P.; Pan, W.; Brown, D. J.; Machado, S.; Walden, V. P.; Eigenbrode, S.; Abatzoglou, J. T.

2011-12-01

Agroecological zones (AEZ's) have traditionally been defined by integrating multiple layers of biophysical (e.g. climate, soil, terrain) and occasionally socioeconomic data to create unique zones with specific ranges of land use constraints and potentials. Our approach to defining AEZ's assumes that current agricultural land uses have emerged as a consequence of biophysical and socioeconomic drivers. Therefore, we explore the concept that AEZ's can be derived from classifying the geographic distribution of current agricultural systems (e.g. the wheat-fallow cropping system zone) based on spatially geo-referenced annual cropland use data that is currently available through the National Agricultural Statistical Service (NASS). By defining AEZ's in this way, we expect to: (1) provide baseline information that geographically delineates the boundaries of current AEZ's and subzones and therefore the capacity to evaluate shifts in AEZ boundaries over time; (2) assess the biophysical (e.g. climate, soils, terrain) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. commodity prices) that are most useful for predicting and correctly classifying current AEZ's, subzones or future shifts in AEZ boundaries; (3) identify and develop AEZ-relevant climate mitigation and adaptation strategies; and (4) integrate biophysical and socioeconomic data sources to pursue a transdisciplinary examination of climate-driven AEZ futures. Achieving these goals will aid in realizing major objectives for a USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture, Agriculture and Food Research Initiative, Cooperative Agricultural Project entitled "Regional Approaches to Climate Change (REACCH) for Pacific Northwest Agriculture". REACCH is a research, education and extension project under the leadership of the University of Idaho with significant collaboration from Washington State University, Oregon State University and the USDA Agricultural Research Service that is working towards increasing the capacity of Inland Pacific Northwest cereal production systems to adapt to and mitigate climate change. The AEZ concept is central to project-wide integration that will enable researchers, stakeholders, students, the public, and policymakers to acquire a more holistic understanding of the interrelationships of agriculture, climate change and the development of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Therefore AEZ's are part of a prescription for land management, given climate change that will enable the incorporation of information from climate models, economic models, crop models, pest disease and weed vulnerabilities, and other data sources. Specific to this presentation, we address the AEZ-related objective of developing methodology for defining major AEZ's within the Inland Pacific Northwest REACCH study area based on annual NASS cropland data.

Design and test of an object-oriented GIS to map plant species in the Southern Rockies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morain, Stanley A.; Neville, Paul R. H.; Budge, Thomas K.; Morrison, Susan C.; Helfrich, Donald A.; Fruit, Sarah

1993-01-01

Elevational and latitudinal shifts occur in the flora of the Rocky Mountains due to long term climate change. In order to specify which species are successfully migrating with these changes, and which are not, an object-oriented, image-based geographic information system (GIS) is being created to animate evolving ecological regimes of temperature and precipitation. Research at the Earth Data Analysis Center (EDAC) is developing a landscape model that includes the spatial, spectral and temporal domains. It is designed to visualize migratory changes in the Rocky Mountain flora, and to specify future community compositions. The object-oriented database will eventually tag each of the nearly 6000 species with a unique hue, intensity, and saturation value, so their movements can be individually traced. An associated GIS includes environmental parameters that control the distribution of each species in the landscape, and satellite imagery is used to help visualize the terrain. Polygons for the GIS are delineated as landform facets that are static in ecological time. The model manages these facets as a triangular irregular net (TIN), and their analysis assesses the gradual progression of species as they migrate through the TIN. Using an appropriate climate change model, the goal will be to stop the modeling process to assess both the rate and direction of species' change and to specify the changing community composition of each landscape facet.

Interactions of landscape disturbances and climate change dictate ecological pattern and process: spatial modeling of wildfire, insect, and disease dynamics under future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.; Holsinger, Lisa M.; Wu, Zhiwei

2016-01-01

ContextInteractions among disturbances, climate, and vegetation influence landscape patterns and ecosystem processes. Climate changes, exotic invasions, beetle outbreaks, altered fire regimes, and human activities may interact to produce landscapes that appear and function beyond historical analogs.ObjectivesWe used the mechanistic ecosystem-fire process model FireBGCv2 to model interactions of wildland fire, mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola) under current and future climates, across three diverse study areas.MethodsWe assessed changes in tree basal area as a measure of landscape response over a 300-year simulation period for the Crown of the Continent in north-central Montana, East Fork of the Bitterroot River in western Montana, and Yellowstone Central Plateau in western Wyoming, USA.ResultsInteracting disturbances reduced overall basal area via increased tree mortality of host species. Wildfire decreased basal area more than beetles or rust, and disturbance interactions modeled under future climate significantly altered landscape basal area as compared with no-disturbance and current climate scenarios. Responses varied among landscapes depending on species composition, sensitivity to fire, and pathogen and beetle suitability and susceptibility.ConclusionsUnderstanding disturbance interactions is critical for managing landscapes because forest responses to wildfires, pathogens, and beetle attacks may offset or exacerbate climate influences, with consequences for wildlife, carbon, and biodiversity.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kenney, Melissa A.; Chen, Robert; Baptista, Sandra R.; Quattrochi, Dale; O'Brien, Sheila

2011-01-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation s activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? Are we adapting successfully? What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA societal indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Physical, Ecological, and Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, S.; Kenney, M.; Chen, R. S.; Baptista, S. R.; Quattrochi, D. A.

2011-12-01

The National Climate Assessment (NCA) is being conducted under the auspices of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), pursuant to the Global Change Research Act of 1990, Section 106, which requires a report to Congress every 4 years. The current NCA (http://globalchange.gov/what-we-do/assessment/) differs in multiple ways from previous U.S. climate assessment efforts, being: (1) more focused on supporting the Nation's activities in adaptation and mitigation and on evaluating the current state of scientific knowledge relative to climate impacts and trends; (2) a long-term, consistent process for evaluation of climate risks and opportunities and providing information to support decision-making processes within regions and sectors; and (3) establishing a permanent assessment capacity both inside and outside of the federal government. As a part of ongoing, long-term assessment activities, the NCA intends to develop an integrated strategic framework and deploy climate-relevant physical, ecological, and societal indicators. The NCA indicators framework is underdevelopment by the NCA Development and Advisory Committee Indicators Working Group and are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The potential questions that could be addressed by these indicators include: -How do we know that there is a changing climate and how is it expected to change in the future? -Are important climate impacts and opportunities occurring or predicted to occur in the future? -Are we adapting successfully? -What are the vulnerabilities and resiliencies given a changing climate? -Are we preparing adequately for extreme events? It is not expected that the NCA indicators would be linked directly to a single decision or portfolio of decisions, but subsets of indicators, or the data supporting the indicator, might be used to inform decision-making processes such as the development and implementation of climate adaptation strategies in a particular sector or region.

Modelling hydrological responses of Nerbioi River Basin to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendizabal, Maddalen; Moncho, Roberto; Chust, Guillem; Torp, Peter

2010-05-01

Future climate change will affect aquatic systems on various pathways. Regarding the hydrological cycle, which is a very important pathway, changes in hydrometeorological variables (air temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration) in first order impact discharges. The fourth report assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change indicates there is evidence that the recent warming of the climate system would result in more frequent extreme precipitation events, increased winter flood likelihoods, increased and widespread melting of snow and ice, longer and more widespread droughts, and rising sea level. Available research and climate model outputs indicate a range of hydrological impacts with likely to very likely probabilities (67 to 99%). For example, it is likely that up to 20% of the world population will live in areas where river flood potential could increase by the 2080s. In Spain, within the Atlantic basin, the hydrological variability will increase in the future due to the intensification of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. This might cause flood frequency decreases, but its magnitude does not decrease. The generation of flood, its duration and magnitude are closely linked to changes in winter precipitation. The climatic conditions and relief of the Iberian Peninsula favour the generation of floods. In Spain, floods had historically strong socio-economic impacts, with more than 1525 victims in the past five decades. This upward trend of hydrological variability is expected to remain in the coming decades (medium uncertainty) when the intensification of the positive phase of the NAO index (MMA, 2006) is considered. In order to adapt or minimize climate change impacts in water resources, it is necessary to use climate projections as well as hydrological modelling tools. The main objective of this paper is to evaluate and assess the hydrological response to climate changes in flow conditions in Nerbioi river basin (Basque Country, North of Spain). So that adaptation strategies can be defined. In order to fulfil this objective four subobjectives are defined: (1)selection of the future climate projections for the case study area from a wide spectrum of possibilities; (2) model the hydrological processes of the basin with a physically distributed complex hydrological model; (3) validation of the hydrological model with observation data; and (4) runoff simulation introducing regional climate model data selected. The analysis of climate models suggests that extreme precipitation in the Basque Country increased by about 10% during the twenty-first century. This increase of extreme precipitations raised discharge and water level in Nerbioi river basin. That is why in the 21st century it is expected that the flood-prone area will expand for precipitation with a return period of 50 years. In this context, it is necessary to define and evaluate different adaptation options which are already in practice or conceivable according to the current scientific knowledge. As well as evaluate the adaptation measures in terms of their ability to lower the vulnerability of water resources to climate change. For example, land use change could be a useful tool to adapt our basin systems. The land use plays an important role on the water balance of a river by varying the proportion of precipitation that runs off and the fraction that is lost by evapotranspiration. Therefore, both climate change and adaptation strategies will have an impact on the hydrodynamic conditions of rivers; particularly the changes in flow conditions will have a severe ecological, economical and social impact. As future work, adaptation measures will introduce in the future runoff simulation in order to evaluate the effectiveness and as a decision-making tool to operational organisations.

Rainwater harvesting possibility under climate change: A basin-scale case study over western province of Saudi Arabia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Almazroui, Mansour; Islam, M. Nazrul; Balkhair, Khaled S.; Şen, Zekâi; Masood, Amjad

2017-06-01

Groundwater reservoirs are important water resources all over the world. Especially, they are of utmost significance for arid and semi-arid regions, and therefore, a sustainable exploitation of these reservoirs needs to be ensured. The natural and most exclusive water supplier to groundwater reservoirs in Saudi Arabia is rainfall, which is characterized by sporadic and random temporal and spatial distributions, particularly under the impacts of climate change; giving rise to uncertainty in groundwater recharge quantification. Although in Saudi Arabia, intense and frequent rainfall events are rare, but they generate significant flash floods with huge amounts of surface water. Under such circumstances, any simple but effective water storage augmentation facility such as rainwater harvesting (RWH) structures gain vital importance for sustainability of water supply and survivals in arid and semi-arid regions. The objective of this study is to explore the possibility of RWH over a basin in the western province of Saudi Arabia called Wadi Al-Lith under climate change. Climatic data is obtained from the IPCC AR5 GCMs, which is further downscaled using a regional climate model RegCM4 for the Arabian Peninsula domain. The RegCM4 is driven to simulate climatic parameters including rainfall at 25 km grid resolution for the present climate (1971-2000), and future climate (2006-2099) with representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results indicate that more durable and longer wet durations are expected with increasing surplus rainfall amounts in the far future because of climate change impacts. Consequently, future climate scenarios are expected to enhance floods and flash floods occurrences, which call for progressive measures to harness the RWH opportunity.

COST 734-CLIVAGRI: Impacts of Climate change and Variability on European Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlandini, S.; Nejedlik, P.; Eitzinger, J.; Alexandrov, V.; Toulios, L.; Kajfez Bogataj, L.; Calanca, P.; Trnka, M.; Olesen, J. E.

2009-09-01

COST is an intergovernmental framework for European Cooperation in Science and Technology, funded by its member countries through the EU Framework Programme. The objective of COST is to coordinate, integrate and synthesise results from ongoing national research within and between COST member countries to add value to research investment. COST Actions aim to deliver scientific syntheses and analyses of best available practice to aid problem identification, risk assessment, public utilities and policy development. During 2006, COST Action 734 (CLIVAGRI-Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture) was launched thanks to the coordinated activity of 15 EU countries. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas (COST 734 MoU. www.cost.esf.org). Secondary objectives are: the collection and review of existing agroclimatic indices and simulation models, to assess hazard impacts on various European agricultural areas relating hazards to climatic conditions; building climate scenarios for the next few decades; the definition of harmonised criteria to evaluate the impacts of climate change and variability on agriculture; the definition of warning systems guidelines. Four working groups, with the integration of remote sensing sub working group 2.1 were created to address these aims: WG1 - Agroclimatic indices and simulation models WG2 - Evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and simulation model outputs describing agricultural impacts and hazard levels WG3 - Development and assessment of future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions WG4 - Risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture The activity of WGs has been structured like a matrix, presenting on the rows the methods of analysis and on the columns the phenomena and the hazards. Each intersection point describes the evaluation of past, present and future trends of climate and thus the impacts on agriculture. Based on these results, possible actions (specific recommendations, suggestions, warning systems) will be elaborated and proposed to the end-users, depending on their needs. At present 28 countries join the Action with the collaboration of Agricultural Meteorology Division - Word Meteorology Organization and Ispra- IPSC- AGRIFISH UNIT - Joint Research Centre. Time schedule of activity includes three main phases: • Planning, operational arrangements, establishment of WGs and inventory. • Main scientific work to be conducted by each WG. • WGs activities to be concluded with emphasis on disseminations, reports and final publications.

Carbon Lock-In: Barriers to the Deployment of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lapsa, Melissa Voss; Brown, Marilyn A.

The United States shares with many other countries the objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate system. Many believe that accelerating the pace of technology improvement and deployment could significantly reduce the cost of achieving this goal. The critical role of new technologies is underscored by the fact that most anthropogenic greenhouse gases emitted over the next century will come from equipment and infrastructure built in the future. As a result, new technologies and fuels have the potential to transform the nation's energy system whilemore » meeting climate change as well as energy security and other goals.« less

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon.

PubMed

Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Neves, Olívia Viana; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

2017-01-01

Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale-patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change-are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species.

Probabilistic seasonal Forecasts to deterministic Farm Leve Decisions: Innovative Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mwangi, M. W.

2015-12-01

Climate change and vulnerability are major challenges in ensuring household food security. Climate information services have the potential to cushion rural households from extreme climate risks. However, most the probabilistic nature of climate information products is not easily understood by majority of smallholder farmers. Despite the probabilistic nature, climate information have proved to be a valuable climate risk adaptation strategy at the farm level. This calls for innovative ways to help farmers understand and apply climate information services to inform their farm level decisions. The study endeavored to co-design and test appropriate innovation systems for climate information services uptake and scale up necessary for achieving climate risk development. In addition it also determined the conditions necessary to support the effective performance of the proposed innovation system. Data and information sources included systematic literature review, secondary sources, government statistics, focused group discussions, household surveys and semi-structured interviews. Data wasanalyzed using both quantitative and qualitative data analysis techniques. Quantitative data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) software. Qualitative data was analyzed using qualitative techniques, which involved establishing the categories and themes, relationships/patterns and conclusions in line with the study objectives. Sustainable livelihood, reduced household poverty and climate change resilience were the impact that resulted from the study.

2005 Children's Health Protection Advisory Committee Meeting Agendas

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Objectives for the three meetings in 2005 include discussing contaminants in fish, human subjects testing, pesticide policy, climate change, particulates, Voluntary Children's Chemical Evaluation Program, Clean Air Mercury rule, and cancer risk.

Operational responses to climate change impacts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-01-01

Systems Operations and Management activities of transportation agencies-both state and localhave the objective of making the most effective use of the existing roadway capacity by : improving efficiency (throughput, speed, safety), minimizing the ser...

Measuring the Dynamics of Climate Change Communication in Mass Media and Social Networks with Computer-Assisted Content Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirilenko, A.; Stepchenkova, S.

2012-12-01

To date, multiple authors have examined media representations of and public attitudes towards climate change, as well as how these representations and attitudes differ from scientific knowledge on the issue of climate change. Content analysis of newspaper publications, TV news, and, recently, Internet blogs has allowed for identification of major discussion themes within the climate change domain (e.g., newspaper trends, comparison of climate change discourse in different countries, contrasting liberal vs. conservative press). The majority of these studies, however, have processed texts manually, limiting textual population size, restricting the analysis to a relatively small number of themes, and using time-expensive coding procedures. The use of computer-assisted text analysis (CATA) software is important because the difficulties with manual processing become more severe with an increased volume of data. We developed a CATA approach that allows a large body of text materials to be surveyed in a quantifiable, objective, transparent, and time-efficient manner. While staying within the quantitative tradition of content analysis, the approach allows for an interpretation of the public discourse closer to one of more qualitatively oriented methods. The methodology used in this study contains several steps: (1) sample selection; (2) data preparation for computer processing and obtaining a matrix of keyword frequencies; (3) identification of themes in the texts using Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA); (4) combining identified themes into higher order themes using Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA); (5) interpretation of obtained public discourse themes using factor scores; and (6) tracking the development of the main themes of the climate change discourse through time. In the report, we concentrate on two examples of CATA applied to study public perception of climate change. First example is an analysis of temporal change in public discourse on climate change. Applying CATA to a conservatively selected sample of 4043 articles published on climate change in The New York Times from 1995, we found a considerable change in major topics of discussion. One of the most significant tendencies is a gradual decline in the volume of material within the "Science" topic and an expansion of themes classified under the "Politics" topic. The second example is the analysis of public ability to detect climate change, in which we used a database of over 1 million Twitter messages on climate change that we have collected. We compared the intensity of tweeting on climate change with the "common-sense climate index" by Hansen et al (1999) and found that the weather extremes experienced at a certain location is immediately reflected in the number of tweets discussing climate change originating from that location. Although the CATA approach certainly has its limitations, we are convinced that it has a number of advantages over manual processing: it is able to analyze large textual bodies, is more time efficient, has a higher level of detail, enhances the richness of interpretation, and is able to reliably track discourse development through time.

Quantifying Vulnerability to Extreme Heat in Time Series Analyses: A Novel Approach Applied to Neighborhood Social Disparities under Climate Change

PubMed Central

Benmarhnia, Tarik; Grenier, Patrick; Brand, Allan; Fournier, Michel; Deguen, Séverine; Smargiassi, Audrey

2015-01-01

Objectives: We propose a novel approach to examine vulnerability in the relationship between heat and years of life lost and apply to neighborhood social disparities in Montreal and Paris. Methods: We used historical data from the summers of 1990 through 2007 for Montreal and from 2004 through 2009 for Paris to estimate daily years of life lost social disparities (DYLLD), summarizing social inequalities across groups. We used Generalized Linear Models to separately estimate relative risks (RR) for DYLLD in association with daily mean temperatures in both cities. We used 30 climate scenarios of daily mean temperature to estimate future temperature distributions (2021–2050). We performed random effect meta-analyses to assess the impact of climate change by climate scenario for each city and compared the impact of climate change for the two cities using a meta-regression analysis. Results: We show that an increase in ambient temperature leads to an increase in social disparities in daily years of life lost. The impact of climate change on DYLLD attributable to temperature was of 2.06 (95% CI: 1.90, 2.25) in Montreal and 1.77 (95% CI: 1.61, 1.94) in Paris. The city explained a difference of 0.31 (95% CI: 0.14, 0.49) on the impact of climate change. Conclusion: We propose a new analytical approach for estimating vulnerability in the relationship between heat and health. Our results suggest that in Paris and Montreal, health disparities related to heat impacts exist today and will increase in the future. PMID:26402690

Impacts of Climate Change on Public Health in India: Future Research Directions

PubMed Central

Bush, Kathleen F.; Luber, George; Kotha, S. Rani; Dhaliwal, R.S.; Kapil, Vikas; Pascual, Mercedes; Brown, Daniel G.; Frumkin, Howard; Dhiman, R.C.; Hess, Jeremy; Wilson, Mark L.; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Eisenberg, Joseph; Kaur, Tanvir; Rood, Richard; Batterman, Stuart; Joseph, Aley; Gronlund, Carina J.; Agrawal, Arun; Hu, Howard

2011-01-01

Background Climate change and associated increases in climate variability will likely further exacerbate global health disparities. More research is needed, particularly in developing countries, to accurately predict the anticipated impacts and inform effective interventions. Objectives Building on the information presented at the 2009 Joint Indo–U.S. Workshop on Climate Change and Health in Goa, India, we reviewed relevant literature and data, addressed gaps in knowledge, and identified priorities and strategies for future research in India. Discussion The scope of the problem in India is enormous, based on the potential for climate change and variability to exacerbate endemic malaria, dengue, yellow fever, cholera, and chikungunya, as well as chronic diseases, particularly among the millions of people who already experience poor sanitation, pollution, malnutrition, and a shortage of drinking water. Ongoing efforts to study these risks were discussed but remain scant. A universal theme of the recommendations developed was the importance of improving the surveillance, monitoring, and integration of meteorological, environmental, geospatial, and health data while working in parallel to implement adaptation strategies. Conclusions It will be critical for India to invest in improvements in information infrastructure that are innovative and that promote interdisciplinary collaborations while embarking on adaptation strategies. This will require unprecedented levels of collaboration across diverse institutions in India and abroad. The data can be used in research on the likely impacts of climate change on health that reflect India’s diverse climates and populations. Local human and technical capacities for risk communication and promoting adaptive behavior must also be enhanced. PMID:21273162

Linking Science and Management in an Interactive Geospatial, Mutli-Criterion, Structured Decision Support Framework: Use Case Studies of the "Future Forests Geo-visualization and Decision Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pontius, J.; Duncan, J.

2017-12-01

Land managers are often faced with balancing management activities to accomplish a diversity of management objectives, in systems faced with many stress agents. Advances in ecosystem modeling provide a rich source of information to inform management. Coupled with advances in decision support techniques and computing capabilities, interactive tools are now accessible for a broad audience of stakeholders. Here we present one such tool designed to capture information on how climate change may impact forested ecosystems, and how that impact varies spatially across the landscape. This tool integrates empirical models of current and future forest structure and function in a structured decision framework that allows users to customize weights for multiple management objectives and visualize suitability outcomes across the landscape. Combined with climate projections, the resulting products allow stakeholders to compare the relative success of various management objectives on a pixel by pixel basis and identify locations where management outcomes are most likely to be met. Here we demonstrate this approach with the integration of several of the preliminary models developed to map species distributions, sugar maple health, forest fragmentation risk and hemlock vulnerability to hemlock woolly adelgid under current and future climate scenarios. We compare three use case studies with objective weightings designed to: 1) Identify key parcels for sugarbush conservation and management, 2) Target state lands that may serve as hemlock refugia from hemlock woolly adelgid induced mortality, and 3) Examine how climate change may alter the success of managing for both sugarbush and hemlock across privately owned lands. This tool highlights the value of flexible models that can be easily run with customized weightings in a dynamic, integrated assessment that allows users to hone in on their potentially complex management objectives, and to visualize and prioritize locations across the landscape. It also demonstrates the importance of including climate considerations for long-term management. This merging of scientific knowledge with the diversity of stakeholder needs is an important step towards using science to inform management and policy decisions.

The Impact of Project-Based Climate Change Learning Experiences on Students' Broad Climate Literacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeWaters, J.; Powers, S. E.; Dhaniyala, S.

2014-12-01

Evidence-based pedagogical approaches such as project- and inquiry-based techniques have been shown to promote effective learning in science and engineering. The impact of project-based learning experiences on middle school (MS), high school (HS), and undergraduate (UG) students' climate literacy was investigated as part of a NASA Innovations in Climate Education (NICE) project. Project-based modules were developed and taught by MS and HS teachers who participated in climate change education workshops. UG students enrolled in a climate science course completed independent research projects that provided the basis for several of the HS/MS modules. All modules required students to acquire and analyze historical temperature data and future climate predictions, and apply their analysis to the solution of a societal or environmental problem related to our changing climate. Three versions of a quantitative survey were developed and used in a pre-test/post-test research design to help evaluate the project's impact on MS, HS, and UG students' climate literacy, which includes broad climate knowledge as well as affective and behavioral aspects. Content objectives were guided primarily by the 2009 document, Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. All three groups of students made modest but statistically significant cognitive (p<<0.001) and affective (p<0.01) gains; UG students also showed an increase in behavior scores (p=0.001). Results of an ANCOVA showed significant differences in students' cognitive (p<0.001), behavioral (p=0.005) and self-efficacy (p=0.012) outcomes among the 9 participating MS and HS classrooms, where both teacher and module content varied. The presentation will include a description of some key aspects of the project-based curricula developed and used in this research, the development and content of the climate literacy survey, and the interpretation of specific pre/post changes in participating students relative to the content of and approach used in the project-based modules.

Water use assessments supporting company-specific growth and sustainability goals

Treesearch

John Beebe

2016-01-01

In areas with increasing demand for water, addressing water use objectives has long been a primary environmental objective and key concern among industrial water users including paper mills and other forest product companies. However, in recent years, water use metrics and related information (including population change, climate information, and land use...

Hurricane Sandy and Adaptation Pathways in New York: Lessons from a First-Responder City

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William

2014-01-01

Two central issues of climate change have become increasingly evident: Climate change will significantly affect cities; and rapid global urbanization will increase dramatically the number of individuals, amount of critical infrastructure, and means of economic production that are exposed and vulnerable to dynamic climate risks. Simultaneously, cities in many settings have begun to emerge as early adopters of climate change action strategies including greenhouse gas mitigation and adaptation. The objective of this paper is to examine and analyze how officials of one city - the City of New York - have integrated a flexible adaptation pathways approach into the municipality's climate action strategy. This approach has been connected with the City's ongoing response to Hurricane Sandy, which struck in the October 2012 and resulted in damages worth more than US$19 billion. A case study narrative methodology utilizing the Wise et al. conceptual framework (see this volume) is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the flexible adaptation pathways approach in New York City. The paper finds that Hurricane Sandy serves as a ''tipping point'' leading to transformative adaptation due to the explicit inclusion of increasing climate change risks in the rebuilding effort. The potential for transferability of the approach to cities varying in size and development stage is discussed, with elements useful across cities including the overall concept of flexible adaptation pathways, the inclusion of the full metropolitan region in the planning process, and the co-generation of climate-risk information by stakeholders and scientists.

IAI Training in Climate and Health in the Americas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aron, J. L.

2007-05-01

The Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) has addressed training in climate and health in the Americas in two major ways. First, IAI supports students to engage in research training. A multi-country health activity funded by IAI was the collaborative research network (CRN) on Diagnostics and Prediction of Human Health Impacts in the Tropical Americas, which focused principally on the effect of El Nino/Southern Oscillation and other aspects of climate variability on mosquito-borne diseases malaria and dengue. The CRN involved students in Brazil, Mexico, Venezuela, Colombia and Jamaica. The CRN was also linked to other climate and health projects that used a similar approach. Second, IAI organizes training institutes to expand the network of global change research scientists and facilitate the transfer of global change research into practice. The IAI Training Institute on Climate and Health in the Americas was held on November 7 - 18, 2005 at the University of the West Indies in Kingston, Jamaica, engaging participants from the CRN and other programs in the Americas. The Training Institute's central objective was to help strengthen local and regional capacity to address the impacts of climate variability and climate change on human health in the populations of the Americas, particularly Latin America and the Caribbean. The Training Institute had three core components: Science; Applications; and Proposal Development for Seed Grants. Recommendations for future Training Institutes included incorporating new technologies and communicating with policy-makers to develop more proactive societal strategies to manage risks.

Building community resilience to climate change through public health planning.

PubMed

Bajayo, Rachael

2012-04-01

Nillumbik Shire Council, in partnership with La Trobe University, used the Municipal Public Health Planning process to develop an approach for building the resilience of local communities to climate-related stressors. The objective was to define an approach for building community resilience to climate change and to integrate this approach with the 'Environments for Health' framework. Key published papers and reports by leading experts the field were reviewed. Literature was selected based on its relevance to the subjects of community resilience and climate change and was derived from local and international publications, the vast majority published within the past two decades. Review of literature on community resilience revealed that four principal resource sets contribute to the capacity of communities to adapt in times of stress, these being: economic development; social capital; information and communication; and community competence. On the strength of findings, a framework for building each resilience resource set within each of the Environments for Health was constructed. This paper introduces the newly constructed 'Community Resilience Framework', which describes how each one of the four resilience resource sets can be developed within social, built, natural and economic environments. The Community Resilience Framework defines an approach for simultaneously creating supportive environments for health and increasing community capacity for adaptation to climate-related stressors. As such, it can be used by Municipal Public Health Planners as a guide in building community resilience to climate change.

Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions.

PubMed

Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

2009-12-08

Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of "dangerous anthropogenic interference" (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for "early," "urgent," "rapid," and "fast-action" mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define "fast-action" to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2-3 years, be substantially implemented in 5-10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO(2) GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO(2) emissions.

Co-benefits of air quality and climate change policies on air quality of the Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozzoli, Luca; Mert Gokturk, Ozan; Unal, Alper; Kindap, Tayfun; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet

2015-04-01

The Mediterranean basin is one of the regions of the world where significant impacts due to climate changes are predicted to occur in the future. Observations and model simulations are used to provide to the policy makers scientifically based estimates of the necessity to adjust national emission reductions needed to achieve air quality objectives in the context of a changing climate, which is not only driven by GHGs, but also by short lived climate pollutants, such as tropospheric ozone and aerosols. There is an increasing interest and need to design cost-benefit emission reduction strategies, which could improve both regional air quality and global climate change. In this study we used the WRF-CMAQ air quality modelling system to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone and particulate matter concentrations in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean and to understand how this contribution could change in different future scenarios. We have investigated four different future scenarios for year 2050 defined during the European Project CIRCE: a "business as usual" scenario (BAU) where no or just actual measures are taken into account; an "air quality" scenario (BAP) which implements the National Emission Ceiling directive 2001/81/EC member states of the European Union (EU-27); a "climate change" scenario (CC) which implements global climate policies decoupled from air pollution policies; and an "integrated air quality and climate policy" scenario (CAP) which explores the co-benefit of global climate and EU-27 air pollution policies. The BAP scenario largely decreases summer ozone concentrations over almost the entire continent, while the CC and CAP scenarios similarly determine lower decreases in summer ozone but extending all over the Mediterranean, the Middle East countries and Russia. Similar patterns are found for winter PM concentrations; BAP scenario improves pollution levels only in the Western EU countries, and the CAP scenario determines the largest PM reductions over the entire continent and the Mediterranean basin.

Climate-change effects on soils: Accelerated weathering, soil carbon and elemental cycling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qafoku, Nikolla

2015-04-01

Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO2, and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO2 or stored in soils are the subject of active current investigations, with great concern over themore » influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries, identifies key research needs, and highlights opportunities offered by the climate-change effects on soils.« less

Overview of different aspects of climate change effects on soils

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Qafoku, Nikolla P.

2014-08-01

Climate change [i.e., high atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations (≥400 ppm); increasing air temperatures (2-4°C or greater); significant and/or abrupt changes in daily, seasonal, and inter-annual temperature; changes in the wet/dry cycles; intensive rainfall and/or heavy storms; extended periods of drought; extreme frost; heat waves and increased fire frequency] is and will significantly affect soil properties and fertility, water resources, food quantity and quality, and environmental quality. Biotic processes that consume atmospheric CO 2 and create organic carbon (C) that is either reprocessed to CO 2 or stored in soils, are the subject of active current investigations with greatmore » concern over the influence of climate change. In addition, abiotic C cycling and its influence on the inorganic C pool in soils is a fundamental global process in which acidic atmospheric CO 2 participates in the weathering of carbonate and silicate minerals, ultimately delivering bicarbonate and Ca 2+ or other cations that precipitate in the form of carbonates in soils or are transported to the rivers, lakes, and oceans. Soil responses to climate change will be complex, and there are many uncertainties and unresolved issues. The objective of the review is to initiate and further stimulate a discussion about some important and challenging aspects of climate-change effects on soils, such as accelerated weathering of soil minerals and resulting C and elemental fluxes in and out of soils, soil/geo-engineering methods used to increase C sequestration in soils, soil organic matter (SOM) protection, transformation and mineralization, and SOM temperature sensitivity. This review reports recent discoveries and identifies key research needs required to understand the effects of climate change on soils.« less

Climate Change Impacts on Sediment Transport In a Lowland Watershed System: Controlling Processes and Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

al Aamery, N. M. H.; Mahoney, D. T.; Fox, J.

2017-12-01

Future climate change projections suggest extreme impacts on watershed hydrologic systems for some regions of the world including pronounced increases in surface runoff and instream flows. Yet, there remains a lack of research focused on how future changes in hydrologic extremes, as well as relative hydrologic mean changes, impact sediment redistribution within a watershed and sediment flux from a watershed. The authors hypothesized that variations in mean and extreme changes in turn may impact sediments in depositional and erosional dominance in a manner that may not be obvious to the watershed manager. Therefore, the objectives of this study were to investigate the inner processes connecting the combined effect of extreme climate change projections on the vegetation, upland erosion, and instream processes to produce changes in sediment redistribution within watersheds. To do so, research methods were carried out by the authors including simulating sediment processes in forecast and hindcast periods for a lowland watershed system. Publically available climate realizations from several climate factors and the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) were used to predict hydrologic conditions for the South Elkhorn Watershed in central Kentucky, USA to 2050. The results of the simulated extreme and mean hydrological components were used in simulating upland erosion with the connectivity processes consideration and thereafter used in building and simulating the instream erosion and deposition of sediment processes with the consideration of surface fine grain lamina (SFGL) layer controlling the benthic ecosystem. Results are used to suggest the dominance of erosional and depositional redistribution of sediments under different scenarios associated with extreme and mean hydrologic forecasting. The results are discussed in reference to the benthic ecology of the stream system providing insight on how water managers might consider sediment redistribution in a changing climate.

Projected Evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a Century of Climate Change

PubMed Central

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R. Wayne; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts. PMID:21957451

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-river system in a century of climate change.

PubMed

Cloern, James E; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D; Morgan, Tara L; Schoellhamer, David H; Stacey, Mark T; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R Wayne; Jassby, Alan D

2011-01-01

Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21(st) century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

A framework to assess the impacts of climate change on stream health indicators in Michigan watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woznicki, S. A.; Nejadhashemi, A. P.; Tang, Y.; Wang, L.

2016-12-01

Climate change is projected to alter watershed hydrology and potentially amplify nonpoint source pollution transport. These changes have implications for fish and macroinvertebrates, which are often used as measures of aquatic ecosystem health. By quantifying the risk of adverse impacts to aquatic ecosystem health at the reach-scale, watershed climate change adaptation strategies can be developed and prioritized. The objective of this research was to quantify the impacts of climate change on stream health in seven Michigan watersheds. A process-based watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was linked to adaptive neuro-fuzzy inferenced (ANFIS) stream health models. SWAT models were used to simulate reach-scale flow regime (magnitude, frequency, timing, duration, and rate of change) and water quality variables. The ANFIS models were developed based on relationships between the in-stream variables and sampling points of four stream health indicators: the fish index of biotic integrity (IBI), macroinvertebrate family index of biotic integrity (FIBI), Hilsenhoff biotic index (HBI), and number of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera (EPT) taxa. The combined SWAT-ANFIS models extended stream health predictions to all watershed reaches. A climate model ensemble from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) was used to develop projections of changes to flow regime (using SWAT) and stream health indicators (using ANFIS) from a baseline of 1980-2000 to 2020-2040. Flow regime variables representing variability, duration of extreme events, and timing of low and high flow events were sensitive to changes in climate. The stream health indicators were relatively insensitive to changing climate at the watershed scale. However, there were many instances of individual reaches that were projected to experience declines in stream health. Using the probability of stream health decline coupled with the magnitude of the decline, maps of vulnerable stream ecosystems were developed, which can be used in the watershed management decision-making process.

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of continuing climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R. Wayne; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco bay-delta-river system in a century of climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cloern, James E.; Knowles, Noah; Brown, Larry R.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Dettinger, Michael D.; Morgan, Tara L.; Schoellhamer, David H.; Stacey, Mark T.; Van der Wegen, Mick; Wagner, R.W.; Jassby, Alan D.

2011-01-01

Background: Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings: We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010-2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance: Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

Using climate models to estimate the quality of global observational data sets.

PubMed

Massonnet, François; Bellprat, Omar; Guemas, Virginie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J

2016-10-28

Observational estimates of the climate system are essential to monitoring and understanding ongoing climate change and to assessing the quality of climate models used to produce near- and long-term climate information. This study poses the dual and unconventional question: Can climate models be used to assess the quality of observational references? We show that this question not only rests on solid theoretical grounds but also offers insightful applications in practice. By comparing four observational products of sea surface temperature with a large multimodel climate forecast ensemble, we find compelling evidence that models systematically score better against the most recent, advanced, but also most independent product. These results call for generalized procedures of model-observation comparison and provide guidance for a more objective observational data set selection. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Building Quantitative Hydrologic Storylines from Process-based Models for Managing Water Resources in the U.S. Under Climate-changed Futures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnold, J.; Gutmann, E. D.; Clark, M. P.; Nijssen, B.; Vano, J. A.; Addor, N.; Wood, A.; Newman, A. J.; Mizukami, N.; Brekke, L. D.; Rasmussen, R.; Mendoza, P. A.

2016-12-01

Climate change narratives for water-resource applications must represent the change signals contextualized by hydroclimatic process variability and uncertainty at multiple scales. Building narratives of plausible change includes assessing uncertainties across GCM structure, internal climate variability, climate downscaling methods, and hydrologic models. Work with this linked modeling chain has dealt mostly with GCM sampling directed separately to either model fidelity (does the model correctly reproduce the physical processes in the world?) or sensitivity (of different model responses to CO2 forcings) or diversity (of model type, structure, and complexity). This leaves unaddressed any interactions among those measures and with other components in the modeling chain used to identify water-resource vulnerabilities to specific climate threats. However, time-sensitive, real-world vulnerability studies typically cannot accommodate a full uncertainty ensemble across the whole modeling chain, so a gap has opened between current scientific knowledge and most routine applications for climate-changed hydrology. To close that gap, the US Army Corps of Engineers, the Bureau of Reclamation, and the National Center for Atmospheric Research are working on techniques to subsample uncertainties objectively across modeling chain components and to integrate results into quantitative hydrologic storylines of climate-changed futures. Importantly, these quantitative storylines are not drawn from a small sample of models or components. Rather, they stem from the more comprehensive characterization of the full uncertainty space for each component. Equally important from the perspective of water-resource practitioners, these quantitative hydrologic storylines are anchored in actual design and operations decisions potentially affected by climate change. This talk will describe part of our work characterizing variability and uncertainty across modeling chain components and their interactions using newly developed observational data, models and model outputs, and post-processing tools for making the resulting quantitative storylines most useful in practical hydrology applications.

Climate Change and a Global City: An Assessment of the Metropolitan East Coast Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Solecki, William

1999-01-01

The objective of the research is to derive an assessment of the potential climate change impacts on a global city - in this case the 31 county region that comprises the New York City metropolitan area. This study comprises one of the regional components that contribute to the ongoing U.S. National Assessment: The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change and is an application of state-of-the-art climate change science to a set of linked sectoral assessment analyses for the Metro East Coast (MEC) region. We illustrate how three interacting elements of global cities react and respond to climate variability and change with a broad conceptual model. These elements include: people (e.g., socio- demographic conditions), place (e.g., physical systems), and pulse (e.g., decision-making and economic activities). The model assumes that a comprehensive assessment of potential climate change can be derived from examining the impacts within each of these elements and at their intersections. Thus, the assessment attempts to determine the within-element and the inter-element effects. Five interacting sector studies representing the three intersecting elements are evaluated. They include the Coastal Zone, Infrastructure, Water Supply, Public Health, and Institutional Decision-making. Each study assesses potential climate change impacts on the sector and on the intersecting elements, through the analysis of the following parts: 1. Current conditions of sector in the region; 2. Lessons and evidence derived from past climate variability; 3. Scenario predictions affecting sector; potential impacts of scenario predictions; 4. Knowledge/information gaps and critical issues including identification of additional research questions, effectiveness of modeling efforts, equity of impacts, potential non-local interactions, and policy recommendations; and 5. Identification of coping strategies - i.e., resilience building, mitigation strategies, new technologies, education that affects decision-making, and better preparedness for contingencies.

The response of vegetation distribution, ecosystem productivity, and fire in California to future climate scenarios simulated by the MC1 dynamic vegetation dynamic.

Treesearch

James M. Lenihan; Dominique Bachelet; Raymond Drapek; Ronald P. Neilson

2006-01-01

The objective of this study was to dynamically simulate the response of vegetation distribution, carbon, and fire to three scenarios of future climate change for California using the MAPSS-CENTURY (MCI) dynamic general vegetation model. Under all three scenarios, Alpine/Subalpine Forest cover declined with increased growing season length and warmth, and increases in...

Enabling Responsible Energy Decisions: What People Know, Want to Know, and Need to Know about Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

PytlikZillig, L. M.; Tomkins, A. J.; Harrington, J. A.

2012-12-01

As part of a broader regional effort focused on climate change education and rural communities, this paper focuses on a specific effort to understand effective approaches to two presumably complementary goals: The goal of increasing knowledge about climate change and climate science in a community, and the goal of having communities use climate change and climate science information when making decisions. In this paper, we explore the argument that people do not need or want to know about climate change, in order to make responsible and sustainable energy decisions. Furthermore, we hypothesize that involvement in making responsible and sustainable energy decisions will increase openness and readiness to process climate science information, and thus increase learning about climate change in subsequent exposures to such information. Support for these hypotheses would suggest that rather than encouraging education to enable action (including engagement in attempts to make responsible decisions), efforts should focus on encouraging actions first and education second. To investigate our hypotheses, we will analyze and report results from efforts to engage residents from a medium-sized Midwestern city to give input on future programs involving sustainable energy use. The engagement process (which will not be complete until after the AGU deadline) involves an online survey and an optional face-to-face discussion with city officials and experts in energy-related areas. The online survey includes brief information about current local energy programs, questions assessing knowledge of climate change, and an open-ended question asking what additional information residents need in order to make good decisions and recommendations concerning the energy programs. To examine support for our hypotheses, we will report (1) relationships between subjective and objective knowledge of climate science and willingness to attend the face-to-face discussion about the city's energy decisions and actual attendance at the event, (2) a content analysis of what residents say they want and need to know in order to make decisions and recommendations about the city's energy programs, and (3) pilot results from a comparison of learning from a reading about climate change presented prior to the event, after the event, or presented to those who were willing to attend the face-to-face event but did not attend. We will discuss the results in terms of their implications for the relationship between knowledge and behavior, versus change in knowledge and change in behavior.

Analysis of climate change impact on runoff and sediment delivery in a Great Lake watershed using SWAT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Verma, S.; Bhattarai, R.; Cooke, R.

2011-12-01

The green house gas loading of the atmosphere has been increasing since the mid 19th century which threatens to dramatically change the earth's climate in the 21st Century. Scientific evidences show that earth's global average surface temperature has risen some 0.75°C (1.3°F) since 1850. Third Assessment Report (TAR) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that human activities have increased the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which will result in a warming world and other changes in the climate. TAR has projected an increase in globally average surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8 °C and an increase in precipitation of 5 to 20 % over the period of 1990 to 2100. Assuming a global temperature increase of between 2.8 and 5.2 °C, it was estimated a 7-15% increase in global evaporation and precipitation rates. Global warming and subsequent climate change could raise sea level by several tens of centimeters in the next fifty years. Such a rise may erode beaches, worsen coastal flooding and threaten water quality in estuaries and aquifers. With the climate already changing and further change in climate highly likely to happen, study of impact of climate and the adaptation is a necessary component of any response to climate change. The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of climate change on runoff and sediment delivery in a Great Lake watershed located in Northern Ohio. Maumee River watershed is predominantly an agricultural watershed with an area of 6330 sq mile and drains to Lake Erie. Agricultural area covers about 89.9% of the watershed while wooded area covers 7.3%, 1.2% is urban area and other land uses account for 1.6%. Water Quality Laboratory, Heidelberg College has monitored the watershed for last 25 years. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used for both water quantity and water quality simulations for past and future scenarios. SWAT is a continuous, long-term watershed scale simulation model which operates on a daily time step. The model is physically based, computationally efficient, and capable of assessing the impact of climate and watershed management on water, sediment, and nutrient/chemical yields. SWAT model has been calibrated for flow and sediment yield from 1982 to 2002 for the watershed. The calibrated model will be used to predict future flow and sediment delivery scenarios due to climate change (increase in temperature).

Climate Effects on Plant Range Distributions and Community Structure of Pacific Northwest Prairies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bridgham, Scott D.; Johnson, Bart

2013-09-26

Pacific Northwest (PNW) prairies are an imperiled ecosystem that contain a large number of plant species with high fidelity to this habitat. The few remaining high-quality PNW prairies harbor a number of sensitive, rare, and endangered plant species that may be further at-risk with climate change. Thus, PNW prairies are an excellent model system to examine how climate change will affect the distribution of native plant species in grassland sites. Our experimental objectives were to determine: (i) how climate change will affect the range distribution of native plant species; (ii) what life history stages are most sensitive to climate changemore » in a group of key indicator native species; (iii) the robustness of current restoration techniques and suites of species to changing climate, and in particular, the relative competitiveness of native species versus exotic invasive species; and (iv) the effects of climate change on carbon and nutrient cycling and soil-microbial-plant feedbacks. We addressed these objectives by experimentally increasing temperature 2.5 to 3.0 ºC above ambient with overhead infrared lamps and increasing wet-season precipitation by 20% above ambient in three upland prairie sites in central-western Washington, central-western Oregon, and southwestern Oregon from fall 2010 through 2012. Additional precipitation was applied within 2 weeks of when it fell so precipitation intensity was increased, particularly during the winter rainy season but with minimal additions during the summer dry season. These three sites also represent a 520-km natural climate gradient of increasing degree of severity of Mediterranean climate from north to south. After removing the extant vegetation, we planted a diverse suite of 12 native species that have their northern range limit someplace within the PNW in each experimental plot. An additional 20 more wide-spread native species were also planted into each plot. We found that recruitment of plant species within their ranges was negatively impacted by increased temperatures, but for species planted north of their current range, increased temperature was neutral. However, for surviving plants climate treatments and site-specific factors (e.g., nutrient availability) were the strongest predictors of plant growth and seed set. When recruitment and plant growth are considered together, increased temperatures are negative within a species current range but beyond this range they become positive. Germination was the most critical stage for plant response across all sites and climate treatments. Our results underscore the importance of including plant vital rates into models that are examining climate change effects on plant ranges. Warming altered plant community composition, decreased diversity, and increased total cover, with warmed northern communities over time becoming more like ambient communities further south. In particular, warming increased the cover of annual introduced species, suggesting that the observed biogeographic pattern of increasing invasion by this plant functional group in US West Coast prairies as one moves further south is at least in part due to climate. Our results suggest that with the projected increase in drought severity with climate change, Pacific Northwest prairies may face an increase of invasion by annuals, similar to what has been observed in California, resulting in novel species assemblages and shifts in functional composition, which in turn may alter ecosystem function. Warming generally increased nutrient availability and plant productivity across all sites. The seasonality of soil respiration responses to heating were strongly dependent on the Mediterranean climate gradient in the PNW, with heating responses being generally positive during periods of adequate soil moisture and becoming neutral to negative during periods of low soil moisture. The asynchrony between temperature and precipitation may make soils less sensitive to warming. Precipitation effects were minimal for all measured responses indicating the importance of increased temperatures in driving biotic responses to climate change in Mediterranean ecosystems. However, substantially increased precipitation during the dry season would almost certainly have profound effects, but the opposite is predicted by current climate change models for the PNW. A manipulative climate change experiment embedded within a natural climate gradient provides unique insights into the degree to which biotic responses to climate change are regionally consistent and site-dependent. Perhaps surprisingly, most climatic effects that we observed were either consistent in the three sites or could be readily interpreted in terms of the gradient of increasing intensity of the Mediterranean climate from north to south.« less

Climate change impact assessment on Veneto and Friuli Plain groundwater. Part I: an integrated modeling approach for hazard scenario construction.

PubMed

Baruffi, F; Cisotto, A; Cimolino, A; Ferri, M; Monego, M; Norbiato, D; Cappelletto, M; Bisaglia, M; Pretner, A; Galli, A; Scarinci, A; Marsala, V; Panelli, C; Gualdi, S; Bucchignani, E; Torresan, S; Pasini, S; Critto, A; Marcomini, A

2012-12-01

Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced information about the potential variations of the water balance components (e.g. river discharge, groundwater level and volume) due to climate change. Such projections were used to develop potential hazard scenarios for the case study area, to be further applied within climate change risk assessment studies for groundwater resources and associated ecosystems. This paper describes the models' chain and the methodological approach adopted in the TRUST project and analyzes the hazard scenarios produced in order to investigate climate change risks for the case study area. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Multiple stressors threatening the future of the Baltic Sea-Kattegat marine ecosystem: implications for policy and management actions.

PubMed

Jutterström, S; Andersson, H C; Omstedt, A; Malmaeus, J M

2014-09-15

The paper discusses the combined effects of ocean acidification, eutrophication and climate change on the Baltic Sea and the implications for current management strategies. The scientific basis is built on results gathered in the BONUS+ projects Baltic-C and ECOSUPPORT. Model results indicate that the Baltic Sea is likely to be warmer, more hypoxic and more acidic in the future. At present management strategies are not taking into account temporal trends and potential ecosystem change due to warming and/or acidification, and therefore fulfilling the obligations specified within the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, OSPAR and HELCOM conventions and national environmental objectives may become significantly more difficult. The paper aims to provide a basis for a discussion on the effectiveness of current policy instruments and possible strategies for setting practical environmental objectives in a changing climate and with multiple stressors. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Dynamic reserve design in the face of climate change and urbanization

USGS Publications Warehouse

Romañach, Stephanie; Johnson, Fred A.; Stith, Bradley M.; Bonneau, Mathieu

2015-01-01

Reserve design is a process that must address many ecological, social, and political factors to successfully identify parcels of land in need of protection to sustain wildlife populations and other natural resources. Making land acquisition choices for a large, terrestrial protected area is difficult because it occurs over a long timeframe and may involve consideration future conditions such as climate and urbanization changes. Decision makers need to consider factors including: order of parcel purchasing given budget constraints, future uncertainty, potential future landscape‐scale changes from urbanization and climate. In central Florida, two new refuges and the expansion of a third refuge are in various stages of USFWS planning. The Everglades Headwaters National Wildlife Refuge (EHNWR) has recently been established, is at the top of the Presidential Administration’s priority conservation areas, and is cited by the Secretary of DOI routinely in the context of conservation. The new refuges were strategically located for both for species adaptation from climate change impacts as well as currently being host to a number of important threatened and endangered species and habitats. We plan to combine a structured decision making framework, optimal solution theory, and output from ecological and sociological models (these modeling efforts were previously funded by DOI partners) that incorporate climate change to provide guidance for EHNWR reserve design. Utilizing a SDM approach and optimal solution theory, decision support tools will be developed that will incorporate stakeholder and agency objectives into targeting conservation lands both through fee simple purchase and other incentives such as easements based on ecological and socioeconomic modeling outputs driven by climate change.

Is Ignorance of Climate Change Culpable?

PubMed

Robichaud, Philip

2017-10-01

Sometimes ignorance is an excuse. If an agent did not know and could not have known that her action would realize some bad outcome, then it is plausible to maintain that she is not to blame for realizing that outcome, even when the act that leads to this outcome is wrong. This general thought can be brought to bear in the context of climate change insofar as we think (a) that the actions of individual agents play some role in realizing climate harms and (b) that these actions are apt targets for being considered right or wrong. Are agents who are ignorant about climate change and the way their actions contribute to it excused because of their ignorance, or is their ignorance culpable? In this paper I examine these questions from the perspective of recent developments in the theories of responsibility for ignorant action and characterize their verdicts. After developing some objections to existing attempts to explore these questions, I characterize two influential theories of moral responsibility and discuss their implications for three different types of ignorance about climate change. I conclude with some recommendations for how we should react to the face of the theories' conflicting verdicts. The answer to the question posed in the title, then, is: "Well, it's complicated."

Influence of climate change on the flowering of temperate fruit trees

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perez-Lopez, D.; Ruiz-Ramos, M.; Sánchez-Sánchez, E.; Centeno, A.; Prieto-Egido, I.; Lopez-de-la-Franca, N.

2012-04-01

It is well known that winter chilling is necessary for the flowering of temperate trees. The chilling requirement is a criterion for choosing a species or variety at a given location. Also chemistry products can be used for reducing the chilling-hours needs but make our production more expensive. This study first analysed the observed values of chilling hours for some representative agricultural locations in Spain for the last three decades and their projected changes under climate change scenarios. Usually the chilling is measured and calculated as chilling-hours, and different methods have been used to calculate them (e.g. Richarson et al., 1974 among others) according to the species considered. For our objective North Carolina method (Shaltout and Unrath, 1983) was applied for apples, Utah method (Richardson et al. 1974) for peach and grapevine and the approach used by De Melo-Abreu et al. (2004) for olive trees. The influence of climate change in temperate trees was studied by calculating projections of chilling-hours with climate data from Regional Climate Models (RCMs) at high resolution (25 km) from the European Project ENSEMBLES (http://www.ensembles-eu.org/). These projections will allow for analysing the modelled variations of chill-hours between 2nd half of 20C and 1st half of 21C at the study locations.

Issues in subsurface exploration of ice sheets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

French, L.; Carsey, F.; Zimmerman, W.

2000-01-01

Exploration of the deep subsurface ice sheets of Earth, Mars, Europa, and Titan has become a major consideration in addressing scientific objectives in climate change, extremophile biology, exobiology,chemical weathering, planetary evolution and ice dynamics.

Influence of the management strategy model on estimating water system performance under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Francois, Baptiste; Hingray, Benoit; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Hendrickx, Frederic

2015-04-01

The performance of water systems used worldwide for the management of water resources is expected to be influenced by future changes in regional climates and water uses. Anticipating possible performance changes of a given system requires a modeling chain simulating its management. Operational management is usually not trivial especially when several conflicting objectives have to be accounted for. Management models are therefore often a crude representation of the real system and they only approximate its performance. Estimated performance changes are expected to depend on the management model used, but this is often not assessed. This communication analyzes the influence of the management strategy representation on the performance of an Alpine reservoir (Serre-Ponçon, South-East of France) for which irrigation supply, hydropower generation and recreational activities are the main objectives. We consider three ways to construct the strategy named as clear-, short- and far-sighted management. They are based on different forecastability degrees of seasonal inflows into the reservoir. The strategies are optimized using a Dynamic Programming algorithm (deterministic for clear-sighted and implicit stochastic for short- and far-sighted). System performance is estimated for an ensemble of future hydro-meteorological projections obtained in the RIWER2030 research project (http://www.lthe.fr/RIWER2030/) from a suite of climate experiments from the EU - ENSEMBLES research project. Our results show that changes in system performance is much more influenced by changes in hydro-meteorological variables than by the choice of strategy modeling. They also show that a simple strategy representation (i.e. clear-sighted management) leads to similar estimates of performance modifications than those obtained with a representation supposedly closer to real world (i.e. the far-sighted management). The Short-Sighted management approach lead to significantly different results, especially when inter-annual inflow variability is high. Key words: Climate change, water resource, impact, management strategy modelling

Climatic Changes and Evaluation of Their Effects on Agriculture in Asian Monsoon Region- A project of GRENE-ei programs in Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mizoguchi, M.; Matsumoto, J.; Takahashi, H. G.; Tanaka, K.; Kuwagata, T.

2015-12-01

It is important to predict climate change correctly in regional scale and to build adaptation measures and mitigation measures in the Asian monsoon region where more than 60 % of the world's population are living. The reliability of climate change prediction model is evaluated by the reproducibility of past climate in general. However, because there are many developing countries in the Asian monsoon region, adequate documentations of past climate which are needed to evaluate the climate reproducibility have not been prepared. In addition, at present it is difficult to get information on wide-area agricultural meteorological data which affect the growth of agricultural crops when considering the impact on agriculture of climate. Therefore, we have started a research project entitled "Climatic changes and evaluation of their effects on agriculture in Asian monsoon region (CAAM)" under the research framework of the Green Network of Excellence (GRENE) for the Japanese fiscal years from 2011 to 2015 supported by the Japanese Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT). This project aims to improve the reliability of future climate prediction and to develop the information platform which will be useful to design adaptation and mitigation strategies in agriculture against the predicted climatic changes in Asian monsoon regions. What is GRENE?Based on the new growth strategy which was approved by the Cabinet of Japan in June 2010, Green Network of Excellence program (GRENE) has started under MEXT from FY 2011. The objectives of this program are that the domestic leading universities work together strategically and promote a comprehensive human resource development and research of the highest level in the world while sharing research resources and research goals. In the field of environmental information, it is required that universities and research institutions, which are working on issues such as adaptation to climate change, cooperate to promote the utilization of environmental information and to develop human resources while using DIAS (Data Integration and Analysis System) which has been built by MEXT.

Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

2014-11-01

The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model calibration was tested by comparing the manual calibration approach with automatic calibrations of the VHM model based on different objective functions. The calibration approach did not significantly alter the model results for peak flow, but the low flow projections were again highly influenced. Model choice as well as calibration strategy hence have a critical impact on low flows, more than on peak flows. These results highlight the high uncertainty in low flow modelling, especially in a climate change context.

Geodynamic contributions to global climatic change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bills, Bruce G.

1992-01-01

Orbital and rotational variations perturb the latitudinal and seasonal pattern of incident solar radiation, producing major climatic change on time scales of 10(exp 4)-10(exp 6) years. The orbital variations are oblivious to internal structure and processes, but the rotational variations are not. A program of investigation whose objective would be to explore and quantify three aspects of orbital, rotational, and climatic interactions is described. An important premise of this investigation is the synergism between geodynamics and paleoclimate. Better geophysical models of precessional dynamics are needed in order to accurately reconstruct the radiative input to climate models. Some of the paleoclimate proxy records contain information relevant to solid Earth processes, on time scales which are difficult to constrain otherwise. Specific mechanisms which will be addressed include: (1) climatic consequences of deglacial polar motion; and (2) precessional and climatic consequences of glacially induced perturbations in the gravitational oblateness and partial decoupling of the mantle and core. The approach entails constructing theoretical models of the rotational, deformational, radiative, and climatic response of the Earth to known orbital perturbations, and comparing these with extensive records of paleoclimate proxy data. Several of the mechanisms of interest may participate in previously unrecognized feed-back loops in the climate dynamics system. A new algorithm for estimating climatically diagnostic locations and seasons from the paleoclimate time series is proposed.

Strategies for Reforestation under Uncertain Future Climates: Guidelines for Alberta, Canada

PubMed Central

Gray, Laura K.; Hamann, Andreas

2011-01-01

Background Commercial forestry programs normally use locally collected seed for reforestation under the assumption that tree populations are optimally adapted to local environments. However, in western Canada this assumption is no longer valid because of climate trends that have occurred over the last several decades. The objective of this study is to show how we can arrive at reforestation recommendations with alternative species and genotypes that are viable under a majority of climate change scenarios. Methodology/Principal Findings In a case study for commercially important tree species of Alberta, we use an ecosystem-based bioclimate envelope modeling approach for western North America to project habitat for locally adapted populations of tree species using multi-model climate projections for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. We find that genotypes of species that are adapted to drier climatic conditions will be the preferred planting stock over much of the boreal forest that is commercially managed. Interestingly, no alternative species that are currently not present in Alberta can be recommended with any confidence. Finally, we observe large uncertainties in projections of suitable habitat that make reforestation planning beyond the 2050s difficult for most species. Conclusion/Significance More than 50,000 hectares of forests are commercially planted every year in Alberta. Choosing alternative planting stock, suitable for expected future climates, could therefore offer an effective climate change adaptation strategy at little additional cost. Habitat projections for locally adapted tree populations under observed climate change conform well to projections for the 2020s, which suggests that it is a safe strategy to change current reforestation practices and adapt to new climatic realities through assisted migration prescriptions. PMID:21853061

Changing Characteristics of convective storms: Results from a continental-scale convection-permitting climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, A. F.; Ikeda, K.; Liu, C.; Bullock, R.; Rasmussen, R.

2016-12-01

Convective storms are causing extremes such as flooding, landslides, and wind gusts and are related to the development of tornadoes and hail. Convective storms are also the dominant source of summer precipitation in most regions of the Contiguous United States. So far little is known about how convective storms might change due to global warming. This is mainly because of the coarse grid spacing of state-of-the-art climate models that are not able to resolve deep convection explicitly. Instead, coarse resolution models rely on convective parameterization schemes that are a major source of errors and uncertainties in climate change projections. Convection-permitting climate simulations, with grid-spacings smaller than 4 km, show significant improvements in the simulation of convective storms by representing deep convection explicitly. Here we use a pair of 13-year long current and future convection-permitting climate simulations that cover large parts of North America. We use the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) that incorporates the time dimension (MODE-TD) to analyze the model performance in reproducing storm features in the current climate and to investigate their potential future changes. We show that the model is able to accurately reproduce the main characteristics of convective storms in the present climate. The comparison with the future climate simulation shows that convective storms significantly increase in frequency, intensity, and size. Furthermore, they are projected to move slower which could result in a substantial increase in convective storm-related hazards such as flash floods, debris flows, and landslides. Some regions, such as the North Atlantic, might experience a regime shift that leads to significantly stronger storms that are unrepresented in the current climate.

Polish country study to address climate change: Strategies of the GHG`s emission reduction and adaptation of the Polish economy to the changed climate. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-01-01

The Polish Country Study Project was initiated in 1992 as a result of the US Country Study Initiative whose objective was to grant the countries -- signatories of the United Nations` Framework Convention on Climate Change -- assistance that will allow them to fulfill their obligations in terms of greenhouse gases (GHG`s) inventory, preparation of strategies for the reduction of their emission, and adapting their economies to the changed climatic conditions. In February 1993, in reply to the offer from the United States Government, the Polish Government expressed interest in participation in this program. The Study proposal, prepared by themore » Ministry of Environmental Protection, Natural Resources and Forestry was presented to the US partner. The program proposal assumed implementation of sixteen elements of the study, encompassing elaboration of scenarios for the strategy of mission reduction in energy sector, industry, municipal management, road transport, forestry, and agriculture, as well as adaptations to be introduced in agriculture, forestry, water management, and coastal management. The entire concept was incorporated in macroeconomic strategy scenarios. A complementary element was the elaboration of a proposal for economic and legal instruments to implement the proposed strategies. An additional element was proposed, namely the preparation of a scenario of adapting the society to the expected climate changes.« less

Pliocene Model Intercomparison (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Haywood, A. M.; Dowsett, H. J.; Dolan, A. M.; Rowley, D.; Abe-Ouchi, A.; Otto-Bliesner, B.; Chandler, M. A.; Hunter, S. J.; Lunt, D. J.; Pound, M.;

Climate Change and Neotectonic History of Northwestern China

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Farr, Tom G.; Chadwick, Oliver; Evans, Diane; Gillespie, Alan; Peltzer, Gilles; Tapponnier, Paul

1996-01-01

The progress, results and future plans for the following objectives are presented: (1) To compare the types, rates, and magnitudes of surficial modification processes that have operated in Northwest China and the Southwestern U.S.; (2) To quantify and understand the basis of the remote sensing signatures of these processes to allow extrapolation from field sites to regional maps and to allow comparisons between widely separated arid regions; (3) To use the resulting chronologies to help define the temporal and spatial distribution of continental climate changes; and (4) Determine the ages of movements on some of the active faults in Northwestern China.

The CLUVA project: Climate-change scenarios and their impact on urban areas in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Ruocco, Angela; Weets, Guy; Gasparini, Paolo; Jørgensen, Gertrud; Lindley, Sarah; Pauleit, Stephan; Vahed, Anwar; Schiano, Pasquale; Kabisch, Sigrun; Vedeld, Trond; Coly, Adrien; Tonye, Emmanuel; Touré, Hamidou; Kombe, Wilbard; Yeshitela, Kumelachew

2013-04-01

CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. Its main objective is the estimate of the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale in Africa. The mission of CLUVA is to develop methods and knowledge to assess risks cascading from climate-changes. It downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate threats to selected African test cities; mainly floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; vulnerability of in-town ecosystems and urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. A multi-scale and multi-disciplinary quantitative, probabilistic, modelling is applied. CLUVA brings together climate experts, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists with their African counterparts in an integrated research effort focusing on the improvement of the capacity of scientific institutions, local councils and civil society to cope with climate change. The CLUVA approach was set-up in the first year of the project and developed as follows: an ensemble of eight global projections of climate changes is produced for east and west Africa until 2050 considering the new IPCC (International Panel on Climate Changes; http://www.ipcc.ch/) scenarios. These are then downscaled to urban level, where territorial modeling is required to compute hazard effects on the vulnerable physical system (urban ecosystems, informal settlements, lifelines such as transportation and sewer networks) as well as on the social context, in defined time frames, and risk analysis is then employed to assess expected consequences. An investigation of the existing urban planning and governance systems and its interface with climate risks is performed. With the aid of the African partners, the developed approach is currently being applied to selected African case studies: Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania, Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso, St. Louis - Senegal. The poster will illustrate the CLUVA's framework to assess climate-change-related risks at an urban scale in Africa, and will report on the progresses of selected case studies to demonstrate feasibility of a multi-scale and multi-risk quantitative approach for risk management.

Influence of climate change factors on carbon dynamics in northern forested peatlands

Treesearch

C.C Trettin; R. Laiho; K. Minkkinen; J. Laine

2005-01-01

Peatlands are carbon-accumulating wetland ecosystems, developed through an imbalance among organic matter production and decomposition processes. Soil saturation is the principal cause of anoxic conditions that constrain organic matter decay. Accordingly, changes in the hydrologic regime will affect the carbon (C) dynamics in forested peatlands. Our objective is to...

Soil organic carbon stability across a Mediterranean oak agroecosystem

Treesearch

Leslie M. Roche; James F. Chang; Johan Six; Anthony T. O' Geen; Kenneth W. Tate

2015-01-01

Rangelands are estimated to cover 30 to 50 percent of the world's land surface and have significant belowground carbon (C) storage potential. Given their geographical extent, many have suggested that even modest changes in C storage via management practices could alter the global C cycle, creating climate change mitigation opportunities. Our objective was to...

A survey on breeding strategies and selection objectives for increased feed efficiency and decreased methane emission

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The combined effects of world population growth, rising incomes and dietary changes have resulted in an increasing international demand for dairy and meat products. However, livestock can have negative impacts on the environment and the greater awareness of climate change has placed pressure on the ...

Spatial pattern of reference evapotranspiration change and its temporal evolution over Southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Shanlei; Wang, Guojie; Huang, Jin; Mu, Mengyuan; Yan, Guixia; Liu, Chunwei; Gao, Chujie; Li, Xing; Yin, Yixing; Zhang, Fangmin; Zhu, Siguang; Hua, Wenjian

2017-11-01

Due to the close relationship of climate change with reference evapotranspiration (ETo), detecting changes in ETo spatial distribution and its temporal evolution at local and regional levels is favorable to comprehensively understand climate change-induced impacts on hydrology and agriculture. In this study, the objective is to identify whether climate change has caused variation of ETo spatial distribution in different analysis periods [i.e., long- (20-year), medium- (10-year), and short-term (5-year)] and to investigate its temporal evolution (namely, when these changes happened) at annual and monthly scales in Southwest China (SWC). First, we estimated ETo values using the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Penman-Monteith equation, based on historical climate data measured at 269 weather sites during 1973-2012. The analysis of variance (ANOVA) results indicated that the spatial pattern of annual ETo had significantly changed during the past 40 years, particularly in west SWC for the long-term analysis period, and west and southeast SWC in both medium- and short-term periods, which corresponded to the percent area of significant differences which were 21.9, 58.0, and 48.2 %, respectively. For investigating temporal evolution of spatial patterns of annual ETo, Duncan's multiple range test was used, and we found that the most significant changes appeared during 1988-2002 with the significant area of higher than 25.0 %. In addition, for long-, medium-, and short-term analysis periods, the spatial distribution has significantly changed during March, September, November, and December, especially in the corresponding periods of 1988-1997, 1983-1992, 1973-1977, and 1988-2002. All in all, climate change has resulted in significant ETo changes in SWC since the 1970s. Knowledge of climate change-induced spatial distribution of ETo and its temporal evolution would aid in formulating strategies for water resources and agricultural managements.

Objective spatiotemporal proxy-model comparisons of the Asian monsoon for the last millennium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anchukaitis, K. J.; Cook, E. R.; Ammann, C. M.; Buckley, B. M.; D'Arrigo, R. D.; Jacoby, G.; Wright, W. E.; Davi, N.; Li, J.

2008-12-01

The Asian monsoon system can be studied using a complementary proxy/simulation approach which evaluates climate models using estimates of past precipitation and temperature, and which subsequently applies the best understanding of the physics of the climate system as captured in general circulation models to evaluate the broad-scale dynamics behind regional paleoclimate reconstructions. Here, we use a millennial-length climate field reconstruction of monsoon season summer (JJA) drought, developed from tree- ring proxies, with coupled climate simulations from NCAR CSM1.4 and CCSM3 to evaluate the cause of large- scale persistent droughts over the last one thousand years. Direct comparisons are made between the external forced response within the climate model and the spatiotemporal field reconstruction. In order to identify patterns of drought associated with internal variability in the climate system, we use a model/proxy analog technique which objectively selects epochs in the model that most closely reproduce those observed in the reconstructions. The concomitant ocean-atmosphere dynamics are then interpreted in order to identify and understand the internal climate system forcing of low frequency monsoon variability. We examine specific periods of extensive or intensive regional drought in the 15th, 17th, and 18th centuries, many of which are coincident with major cultural changes in the region.

Communicating climate information to end-users: an experience driven by the understanding and anticipation of user needs.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chaumont, Diane; Huard, David; Logan, Travis; Sottile, Marie-France; Brown, Ross; Gauvin St-Denis, Blaise; Grenier, Patrick; Braun, Marco

2013-04-01

Planning and adapting to a changing climate requires credible information about the magnitude and rate of projected changes. Ouranos, a consortium on regional climatology and adaptation to climate change was launched in the Province of Québec, Canada, ten years ago, with the objective of developing and providing climate information and expertise in support to adaption. Ouranos differs from most other climate service centers by integrating climate modeling activities, impacts and adaptation expertise and climate analysis services under one roof. The Climate Scenarios Group operates at the interface between climate modellers and users and is responsible for developing, producing and communicating climate scenarios to end-users in a consistent manner. This process requires close collaboration with users to define, understand and eventually anticipate their needs. The varied scientific expertise of climate scenarios specialists --who also act as communicators-- has proven to be a key element for successful communication. A large amount of effort is spent on the characterization and communication of the uncertainties involved in scenario construction. Two main activities have been put in place by the experts in climate modeling to address this: (1) a training course on climate models and (2) a fact-sheet summarizing the uncertainty and robustness of the climate change scenario provided for each I&A application. The latter tool ensures the transparency, traceability, and accountability of our products, and at the same time, encourages a sense of shared responsibility for the final choice of climate scenarios. In addition to uncertainty, two other main issues have been identified as essential in communication with users: 1) observed natural variability at relevant scales and 2) reconciliation of the projected trend with the recent observed trend. Our group has devoted substantial resources for the advancement of communication with end-users in these particular areas. This presentation will provide an overview of progress in communicating climate information at the Ouranos Consortium. We will discuss success and failures and future plans, in particular the extent to which Ouranos needs to work with users in decision-making activities.

Multi-objective Optimization for the Robust Performance of Drinking Water Treatment Plants under Climate Change and Climate Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raseman, W. J.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Rosario-Ortiz, F.; Summers, R. S.; Stewart, J.; Livneh, B.

2016-12-01

To promote public health, the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), and similar entities around the world enact strict laws to regulate drinking water quality. These laws, such as the Stage 1 and 2 Disinfectants and Disinfection Byproducts (D/DBP) Rules, come at a cost to water treatment plants (WTPs) which must alter their operations and designs to meet more stringent standards and the regulation of new contaminants of concern. Moreover, external factors such as changing influent water quality due to climate extremes and climate change, may force WTPs to adapt their treatment methods. To grapple with these issues, decision support systems (DSSs) have been developed to aid WTP operation and planning. However, there is a critical need to better address long-term decision making for WTPs. In this poster, we propose a DSS framework for WTPs for long-term planning, which improves upon the current treatment of deep uncertainties within the overall potable water system including the impact of climate on influent water quality and uncertainties in treatment process efficiencies. We present preliminary results exploring how a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA) search can be coupled with models of WTP processes to identify high-performing plans for their design and operation. This coupled simulation-optimization technique uses Borg MOEA, an auto-adaptive algorithm, and the Water Treatment Plant Model, a simulation model developed by the US EPA to assist in creating the D/DBP Rules. Additionally, Monte Carlo sampling methods were used to study the impact of uncertainty of influent water quality on WTP decision-making and generate plans for robust WTP performance.

Management and monitoring of the endangered Shenandoah salamander under climate change: Workshop report 10-12 April 2012

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Wofford, John E.B.; Smith, D.R.; Dennis, J.; Hawkins-Hoffman, C.; Schaberl, J.; Foley, M.; Bogle, M.

2014-01-01

Here we report on a structured decision making (SDM) process to identify management strategies to ensure persistence of the federally endangered Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah), given that it may be at increased extinction risk under projected climate change. The focus of this report is the second of two SDM workshops; in the first workshop, participants developed a prototype of the decision, including problem frame, management objectives and a suite of potential management strategies, predictive models to inform the decision and link alternatives with the objectives to identify potential solutions, and identified data needs to reduce key uncertainties in the decision. Participants in this second workshop included experts in National Park Service policy at multiple administrative levels, who refined objectives, further evaluated the initial management alternatives, and discussed policy constraints on implementing active management for the species and its high-elevation habitat. The conclusion of the second workshop was similar to that of the first: the current state of information and objectives suggest that there is some value in considering active management to reduce the long-term extinction risk for the species, though there are institutional conservative policies to implementing active management at range-wide scales. The workshop participants also emphasized a conservative NPS management philosophy, including caution in implementing management actions that may ultimately harm the system, a stated assumption that ecosystem changes were “natural” unless demonstrated otherwise (therefore not warranting active management to mitigate), and a need to demonstrate that extinction risk is tied to anthropogenic influence prior to taking active management to mitigate specific anthropogenic influences. Even within a protected area having minimal human disturbance, intertwined environmental variables and interspecific relationships that drive population trends challenge our ability to demonstrate direct links with (anthropogenically influenced) climate change and the decline of a species. Thus while this policy may reduce the potential for injurious management, it may also necessitate extraordinary resources to reduce uncertainty regarding fundamental drivers of species decline prior to taking action.

Coming to Terms with the Concept of Moving Species Threatened by Climate Change – A Systematic Review of the Terminology and Definitions

PubMed Central

Hällfors, Maria H.; Vaara, Elina M.; Hyvärinen, Marko; Oksanen, Markku; Schulman, Leif E.; Siipi, Helena; Lehvävirta, Susanna

2014-01-01

Intentional moving of species threatened by climate change is actively being discussed as a conservation approach. The debate, empirical studies, and policy development, however, are impeded by an inconsistent articulation of the idea. The discrepancy is demonstrated by the varying use of terms, such as assisted migration, assisted colonisation, or managed relocation, and their multiple definitions. Since this conservation approach is novel, and may for instance lead to legislative changes, it is important to aim for terminological consistency. The objective of this study is to analyse the suitability of terms and definitions used when discussing the moving of organisms as a response to climate change. An extensive literature search and review of the material (868 scientific publications) was conducted for finding hitherto used terms (N = 40) and definitions (N = 75), and these were analysed for their suitability. Based on the findings, it is argued that an appropriate term for a conservation approach relating to aiding the movement of organisms harmed by climate change is assisted migration defined as follows: Assisted migration means safeguarding biological diversity through the translocation of representatives of a species or population harmed by climate change to an area outside the indigenous range of that unit where it would be predicted to move as climate changes, were it not for anthropogenic dispersal barriers or lack of time. The differences between assisted migration and other conservation translocations are also discussed. A wide adoption of the clear and distinctive term and definition provided would allow more focused research on the topic and enable consistent implementation as practitioners could have the same understanding of the concept. PMID:25055023

Coming to terms with the concept of moving species threatened by climate change - a systematic review of the terminology and definitions.

PubMed

Hällfors, Maria H; Vaara, Elina M; Hyvärinen, Marko; Oksanen, Markku; Schulman, Leif E; Siipi, Helena; Lehvävirta, Susanna

2014-01-01

Intentional moving of species threatened by climate change is actively being discussed as a conservation approach. The debate, empirical studies, and policy development, however, are impeded by an inconsistent articulation of the idea. The discrepancy is demonstrated by the varying use of terms, such as assisted migration, assisted colonisation, or managed relocation, and their multiple definitions. Since this conservation approach is novel, and may for instance lead to legislative changes, it is important to aim for terminological consistency. The objective of this study is to analyse the suitability of terms and definitions used when discussing the moving of organisms as a response to climate change. An extensive literature search and review of the material (868 scientific publications) was conducted for finding hitherto used terms (N = 40) and definitions (N = 75), and these were analysed for their suitability. Based on the findings, it is argued that an appropriate term for a conservation approach relating to aiding the movement of organisms harmed by climate change is assisted migration defined as follows: Assisted migration means safeguarding biological diversity through the translocation of representatives of a species or population harmed by climate change to an area outside the indigenous range of that unit where it would be predicted to move as climate changes, were it not for anthropogenic dispersal barriers or lack of time. The differences between assisted migration and other conservation translocations are also discussed. A wide adoption of the clear and distinctive term and definition provided would allow more focused research on the topic and enable consistent implementation as practitioners could have the same understanding of the concept.

Community-based Participatory Process – Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program for Northern First Nations and Inuit in Canada

PubMed Central

Peace, Diane McClymont; Myers, Erin

2012-01-01

Objectives Health Canada's Program for Climate Change and Health Adaptation in Northern First Nation and Inuit Communities is unique among Canadian federal programs in that it enables community-based participatory research by northern communities. Study design The program was designed to build capacity by funding communities to conduct their own research in cooperation with Aboriginal associations, academics, and governments; that way, communities could develop health-related adaptation plans and communication materials that would help in adaptation decision-making at the community, regional, national and circumpolar levels with respect to human health and a changing environment. Methods Community visits and workshops were held to familiarize northerners with the impacts of climate change on their health, as well as methods to develop research proposals and budgets to meet program requirements. Results Since the launch of the Climate Change and Health Adaptation Program in 2008, Health Canada has funded 36 community projects across Canada's North that focus on relevant health issues caused by climate change. In addition, the program supported capacity-building workshops for northerners, as well as a Pan-Arctic Results Workshop to bring communities together to showcase the results of their research. Results include: numerous films and photo-voice products that engage youth and elders and are available on the web; community-based ice monitoring, surveillance and communication networks; and information products on land, water and ice safety, drinking water, food security and safety, and traditional medicine. Conclusions Through these efforts, communities have increased their knowledge and understanding of the health effects related to climate change and have begun to develop local adaptation strategies. PMID:22584509

Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa Under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, T.; Zaitchik, B. F.; Habib, S.; Funk, C. C.; Senay, G. B.; Dinku, T.; Policelli, F. S.; Block, P.; Baigorria, G. A.; Beyene, S.; Wardlow, B.; Hayes, M. J.

2014-12-01

The development of effective strategies to adapt to changes in the character of droughts and floods in Africa will rely on improved seasonal prediction systems that are robust to an evolving climate baseline and can be integrated into disaster preparedness and response. Many efforts have been made to build models to improve seasonal forecasts in the Greater Horn of Africa region (GHA) using satellite and climate data, but these efforts and models must be improved and translated into future conditions under evolving climate conditions. This has considerable social significance, but is challenged by the nature of climate predictability and the adaptability of coupled natural and human systems facing exposure to climate extremes. To address these issues, work is in progress under a project funded by NASA. The objectives of the project include: 1) Characterize and explain large-scale drivers in the ocean-atmosphere-land system associated with years of extreme flood or drought in the GHA. 2) Evaluate the performance of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast methods for prediction of decision-relevant metrics of hydrologic extremes. 3) Apply seasonal forecast systems to prediction of socially relevant impacts on crops, flood risk, and economic outcomes, and assess the value of these predictions to decision makers. 4) Evaluate the robustness of seasonal prediction systems to evolving climate conditions. The National Drought Mitigation Center (University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA) is leading this project in collaboration with the USGS, Johns Hopkins University, University of Wisconsin-Madison, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, NASA, and GHA local experts. The project is also designed to have active engagement of end users in various sectors, university researchers, and extension agents in GHA through workshops and/or webinars. This project is expected improve and implement new and existing climate- and remote sensing-based agricultural, meteorological, and hydrologic drought and flood monitoring products (or indicators) that can enhance the preparedness for extreme climate events and climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies in the GHA. Even though this project is in its first year, the preliminary results and future plans to carry out the objectives will be presented.

A Possible Strategy for the Use of Solar Climate Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ackerman, T. P.; Russotto, R. D.; Kravitz, B.

2016-12-01

The Paris accord signals an international effort to hold global temperature change below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, raising the question of what role solar climate engineering (SCE) might play in meeting this objective. However, avoiding continuing, long-term application of SCE with an ever increasing magnitude requires an "exit strategy", i. e., a plan to phase out SCE by removing stabilizing and removing CO2. Here we present results from a series of climate model runs that combine both CO2 and SCE transient forcings over a 200-year period (2000 to 2200). Our results confirm past results that maintaining both global surface air temperature (TA) and precipitation (P) at baseline levels is not feasible. They also demonstrate a quasi-linear relationship between changes in SCE and changes in P. Zonally-averaged changes in TA show, as expected, polar amplification of warming, but that enhancement scales uniformly with the change in global TA. We draw several conclusions from our results: (1) There are plausible scenarios in which SCE can be part of an integrated strategy to meet the temperature goals of the Paris accord. (2) Applying transient forcings can be used to maintain some, but not all, globally-averaged climate system variables (such as TA or P) at a prescribed baseline level. That globally-averaged stability, however, is achieved by averaging over changes in spatial distributions. These spatial changes create difficult issues regarding prediction of regional climate changes due to SCE and potential impacts on regional societies. (3) Our inability to predict interannual climate variability on the annual-to-decadal time scale suggests that it may take a decade or more to provide reliable detection and attribution of the global climate impacts of SCE following its inception (the so-called time of emergence). Furthermore, it will take much longer to determine regional impacts.

A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration

PubMed Central

Timpane-Padgham, Britta L.

2017-01-01

Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9), population- (6), community- (7), ecosystem- (7), or process-level attributes (16). Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1) including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2) considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3) certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to confer resilience because they apply to a wide variety of species and ecosystems. We propose that identifying sources of ecological resilience is a critical step in restoring ecosystems in a changing climate. PMID:28301560

A systematic review of ecological attributes that confer resilience to climate change in environmental restoration.

PubMed

Timpane-Padgham, Britta L; Beechie, Tim; Klinger, Terrie

2017-01-01

Ecological restoration is widely practiced as a means of rehabilitating ecosystems and habitats that have been degraded or impaired through human use or other causes. Restoration practices now are confronted by climate change, which has the potential to influence long-term restoration outcomes. Concepts and attributes from the resilience literature can help improve restoration and monitoring efforts under changing climate conditions. We systematically examined the published literature on ecological resilience to identify biological, chemical, and physical attributes that confer resilience to climate change. We identified 45 attributes explicitly related to climate change and classified them as individual- (9), population- (6), community- (7), ecosystem- (7), or process-level attributes (16). Individual studies defined resilience as resistance to change or recovery from disturbance, and only a few studies explicitly included both concepts in their definition of resilience. We found that individual and population attributes generally are suited to species- or habitat-specific restoration actions and applicable at the population scale. Community attributes are better suited to habitat-specific restoration at the site scale, or system-wide restoration at the ecosystem scale. Ecosystem and process attributes vary considerably in their type and applicability. We summarize these relationships in a decision support table and provide three example applications to illustrate how these classifications can be used to prioritize climate change resilience attributes for specific restoration actions. We suggest that (1) including resilience as an explicit planning objective could increase the success of restoration projects, (2) considering the ecological context and focal scale of a restoration action is essential in choosing appropriate resilience attributes, and (3) certain ecological attributes, such as diversity and connectivity, are more commonly considered to confer resilience because they apply to a wide variety of species and ecosystems. We propose that identifying sources of ecological resilience is a critical step in restoring ecosystems in a changing climate.

Climate Change Adaptation in the Western U.S.: the Case for Dynamic Rule Curves in Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, S.; Hamlet, A. F.; Burges, S. J.

2008-12-01

Climate change in the Western U.S. will bring systematic hydrologic changes affecting many water resources systems. Successful adaptation to these changes, which will be ongoing through the 21st century, will require the 'rebalancing' of competing system objectives such as water supply, flood control, hydropower production, and environmental services in response to hydrologic (and other) changes. Although fixed operating policies for the operation of reservoirs has been a traditional approach to water management in the 20th century, the rapid pace of projected climate shifts (~0.5 F per decade), and the prohibitive costs of recursive policy intervention to mitigate impacts, suggest that more sophisticated approaches will be needed to cope with climate change on a long term basis. The use of 'dynamic rule curves' is an approach that maintains some of the key characteristics of current water management practice (reservoir rule curves) while avoiding many of the fundamental drawbacks of traditional water resources management strategies in a non-stationary climate. In this approach, water resources systems are optimized for each operational period using ensemble streamflow and/or water demand forecasts. The ensemble of optimized reservoir storage traces are then analyzed to produce a set of unique reservoir rule curves for each operational period reflecting the current state of the system. The potential advantage of this approach is that hydrologic changes associated with climate change (such as systematically warmer temperatures) can be captured explicitly in operational hydrologic forecasts, which would in turn inform the optimized reservoir management solutions, creating water resources systems that are largely 'self tending' as the climate system evolves. Furthermore, as hydrologic forecasting systems improve (e.g. in response to improved ENSO forecasting or other scientific advances), so does the performance of reservoir operations. An example of the approach is given for flood control in the Columbia River basin.

The CSAICLAWPS project: a multi-scalar, multi-data source approach to providing climate services for both modelling of climate change impacts on crop yields and development of community-level adaptive capacity for sustainable food security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Forsythe, N. D.; Fowler, H. J.

2017-12-01

The "Climate-smart agriculture implementation through community-focused pursuit of land and water productivity in South Asia" (CSAICLAWPS) project is a research initiative funded by the (UK) Royal Society through its Challenge Grants programme which is part of the broader UK Global Challenges Research Fund (GCRF). CSAICLAWPS has three objectives: a) development of "added-value" - bias assessed, statistically down-scaled - climate projections for selected case study sites across South Asia; b) investigation of crop failure modes under both present (observed) and future (projected) conditions; and c) facilitation of developing local adaptive capacity and resilience through stakeholder engagement. At AGU we will be presenting both next steps and progress to date toward these three objectives: [A] We have carried out bias assessments of a substantial multi-model RCM ensemble (MME) from the CORDEX South Asia (CORDEXdomain for case studies in three countries - Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka - and (stochastically) produced synthetic time-series for these sites from local observations using a Python-based implementation of the principles underlying the Climate Research Unit Weather Generator (CRU-WG) in order to enable probabilistic simulation of current crop yields. [B] We have characterised present response of local crop yields to climate variability in key case study sites using AquaCrop simulations parameterised based on input (agronomic practices, soil conditions, etc) from smallholder farmers. [C] We have implemented community-based hydro-climatological monitoring in several case study "revenue villages" (panchayats) in the Nainital District of Uttarakhand. The purpose of this is not only to increase availability of meteorological data, but also has the aspiration of, over time, leading to enhanced quantitative awareness of present climate variability and potential future conditions (as projected by RCMs). Next steps in our work will include: 1) future crop yield simulations driven by "perturbation" of synthetic time-series using "change factors from the CORDEX-SA MME; 2) stakeholder dialogues critically evaluating potential strategies at the grassroots (implementation) level to mitigate impacts of climate variability and change on crop yields.

Mapping urban climate zones and quantifying climate behaviors--an application on Toulouse urban area (France).

PubMed

Houet, Thomas; Pigeon, Grégoire

2011-01-01

Facing the concern of the population to its environment and to climatic change, city planners are now considering the urban climate in their choices of planning. The use of climatic maps, such Urban Climate Zone‑UCZ, is adapted for this kind of application. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate that the UCZ classification, integrated in the World Meteorological Organization guidelines, first can be automatically determined for sample areas and second is meaningful according to climatic variables. The analysis presented is applied on Toulouse urban area (France). Results show first that UCZ differentiate according to air and surface temperature. It has been possible to determine the membership of sample areas to an UCZ using landscape descriptors automatically computed with GIS and remote sensed data. It also emphasizes that climate behavior and magnitude of UCZ may vary from winter to summer. Finally we discuss the influence of climate data and scale of observation on UCZ mapping and climate characterization. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of uses and competitions of water resources or an original dissemination strategy of hydrological modelling results of an EU project ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Jeunesse, Isabelle; Fustec, Klervi; Larrue, Corinne; Trottier, Julie

2010-05-01

We propose to address the question of security threats through an analysis of water uses and competitions in the current situation, on one hand, and in conditions of climate change, on the other hand, in order to have an operational dissemination of hydrological modelling results. This will be carried out for each case study of the EU project CLIMB (7th EU FP). In this particular case, climate change impacts are to be considered in relation with water uses and rivalries. Taking them into account while involving stakeholders should allow us to have a deep impact on water uses regulation under conditions of climate change. The originality of this methodology, the first objective of which within the project is to disseminate project results and interact with stakeholders, is to use the dissemination phase as a means of involving stakeholder knowledge concerning water uses and competitions. The idea is to let the stakeholders identify themselves, in each case study, by means of interactive methods, the impact of the change of hydrological regime on their own water uses and competitions. We propose to use a real "bottom-up" strategy to assess the potential water uses and rivalries in the context of water scarcity (or flood) due to climate change. Such an approach will allow us to evaluate the risk of an increase in water rivalries and threats to security following climate change impacts scenarios at the river basin scale.

Assessing Regional Scale Variability in Extreme Value Statistics Under Altered Climate Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brunsell, Nathaniel; Mechem, David; Ma, Chunsheng

Recent studies have suggested that low-frequency modes of climate variability can significantly influence regional climate. The climatology associated with extreme events has been shown to be particularly sensitive. This has profound implications for droughts, heat waves, and food production. We propose to examine regional climate simulations conducted over the continental United States by applying a recently developed technique which combines wavelet multi–resolution analysis with information theory metrics. This research is motivated by two fundamental questions concerning the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events. These questions are 1) what temporal scales of the extreme value distributions are most sensitive tomore » alteration by low-frequency climate forcings and 2) what is the nature of the spatial structure of variation in these timescales? The primary objective is to assess to what extent information theory metrics can be useful in characterizing the nature of extreme weather phenomena. Specifically, we hypothesize that (1) changes in the nature of extreme events will impact the temporal probability density functions and that information theory metrics will be sensitive these changes and (2) via a wavelet multi–resolution analysis, we will be able to characterize the relative contribution of different timescales on the stochastic nature of extreme events. In order to address these hypotheses, we propose a unique combination of an established regional climate modeling approach and advanced statistical techniques to assess the effects of low-frequency modes on climate extremes over North America. The behavior of climate extremes in RCM simulations for the 20th century will be compared with statistics calculated from the United States Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) and simulations from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). This effort will serve to establish the baseline behavior of climate extremes, the validity of an innovative multi–resolution information theory approach, and the ability of the RCM modeling framework to represent the low-frequency modulation of extreme climate events. Once the skill of the modeling and analysis methodology has been established, we will apply the same approach for the AR5 (IPCC Fifth Assessment Report) climate change scenarios in order to assess how climate extremes and the the influence of lowfrequency variability on climate extremes might vary under changing climate. The research specifically addresses the DOE focus area 2. Simulation of climate extremes under a changing climate. Specific results will include (1) a better understanding of the spatial and temporal structure of extreme events, (2) a thorough quantification of how extreme values are impacted by low-frequency climate teleconnections, (3) increased knowledge of current regional climate models ability to ascertain these influences, and (4) a detailed examination of the how the distribution of extreme events are likely to change under different climate change scenarios. In addition, this research will assess the ability of the innovative wavelet information theory approach to characterize extreme events. Any and all of these results will greatly enhance society’s ability to understand and mitigate the regional ramifications of future global climate change.« less

MIDWESTERN REGIONAL CENTER OF THE DOE NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATIC CHANGE RESEARCH

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Burton, Andrew J.

2014-02-28

The goal of NICCR (National Institute for Climatic Change Research) was to mobilize university researchers, from all regions of the country, in support of the climatic change research objectives of DOE/BER. The NICCR Midwestern Regional Center (MRC) supported work in the following states: North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio. The MRC of NICCR was able to support nearly $8 million in climatic change research, including $6,671,303 for twenty projects solicited and selected by the MRC over five requests for proposals (RFPs) and $1,051,666 for the final year of ten projectsmore » from the discontinued DOE NIGEC (National Institute for Global Environmental Change) program. The projects selected and funded by the MRC resulted in 135 peer-reviewed publications and supported the training of 25 PhD students and 23 Masters students. Another 36 publications were generated by the final year of continuing NIGEC projects supported by the MRC. The projects funded by the MRC used a variety of approaches to answer questions relevant to the DOE’s climate change research program. These included experiments that manipulated temperature, moisture and other global change factors; studies that sought to understand how the distribution of species and ecosystems might change under future climates; studies that used measurements and modeling to examine current ecosystem fluxes of energy and mass and those that would exist under future conditions; and studies that synthesized existing data sets to improve our understanding of the effects of climatic change on terrestrial ecosystems. In all of these efforts, the MRC specifically sought to identify and quantify responses of terrestrial ecosystems that were not well understood or not well modeled by current efforts. The MRC also sought to better understand and model important feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems, atmospheric chemistry, and regional and global climate systems. The broad variety of projects the MRC has supported gave us a unique opportunity to greatly improve our ability to predict the future health, composition and function of important agricultural and natural terrestrial ecosystems within the Midwestern Region.« less

Using a Global Climate Model in an On-line Climate Change Course

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Randle, D. E.; Chandler, M. A.; Sohl, L. E.

2012-12-01

Seminars on Science: Climate Change is an on-line, graduate-level teacher professional development course offered by the American Museum of Natural History. It is an intensive 6-week course covering a broad range of global climate topics, from the fundamentals of the climate system, to the causes of climate change, the role of paleoclimate investigations, and a discussion of potential consequences and risks. The instructional method blends essays, videos, textbooks, and linked websites, with required participation in electronic discussion forums that are moderated by an experienced educator and a course scientist. Most weeks include additional assignments. Three of these assignments employ computer models, including two weeks spent working with a full-fledged 3D global climate model (GCM). The global climate modeling environment is supplied through a partnership with Columbia University's Educational Global Climate Modeling Project (EdGCM). The objective is to have participants gain hands-on experience with one of the most important, yet misunderstood, aspects of climate change research. Participants in the course are supplied with a USB drive that includes installers for the software and sample data. The EdGCM software includes a version of NASA's global climate model fitted with a graphical user interface and pre-loaded with several climate change simulations. Step-by-step assignments and video tutorials help walk people through these challenging exercises and the course incorporates a special assignment discussion forum to help with technical problems and questions about the NASA GCM. There are several takeaways from our first year and a half of offering this course, which has become one of the most popular out of the twelve courses offered by the Museum. Participants report a high level of satisfaction in using EdGCM. Some report frustration at the initial steps, but overwhelmingly claim that the assignments are worth the effort. Many of the difficulties that arise are due to a lack of computer literacy amongst participants and we have found, through iterative improvements in the materials, that breaking assignments into discrete, well-supported tasks has been key to the success.

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Neves, Olívia Viana; De Marco, Paulo

2017-01-01

Background Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale—patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change—are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species. PMID:29023503

Carbon concentrations and carbon pool distributions in dry, moist, and cold mid-aged forests of the Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Theresa B. Jain; Russell T. Graham; David Adams

2010-01-01

Although "carbon” management may not be a primary objective in forest management, influencing the distribution, composition, growth, and development of biomass to fulfill multiple objectives is; therefore, given a changing climate, managing carbon could influence future management decisions. Also, typically, the conversion from total biomass to total carbon is 50...

Adaptation policies to increase terrestrial ecosystem resilience. Potential utility of a multicriteria approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Bremond, Ariane; Engle, Nathan L.

2014-01-30

Climate change is rapidly undermining terrestrial ecosystem resilience and capacity to continue providing their services to the benefit of humanity and nature. Because of the importance of terrestrial ecosystems to human well-being and supporting services, decision makers throughout the world are busy creating policy responses that secure multiple development and conservation objectives- including that of supporting terrestrial ecosystem resilience in the context of climate change. This article aims to advance analyses on climate policy evaluation and planning in the area of terrestrial ecosystem resilience by discussing adaptation policy options within the ecology-economy-social nexus. The paper evaluates these decisions in themore » realm of terrestrial ecosystem resilience and evaluates the utility of a set of criteria, indicators, and assessment methods, proposed by a new conceptual multi-criteria framework for pro-development climate policy and planning developed by the United Nations Environment Programme. Potential applications of a multicriteria approach to climate policy vis-A -vis terrestrial ecosystems are then explored through two hypothetical case study examples. The paper closes with a brief discussion of the utility of the multi-criteria approach in the context of other climate policy evaluation approaches, considers lessons learned as a result efforts to evaluate climate policy in the realm of terrestrial ecosystems, and reiterates the role of ecosystem resilience in creating sound policies and actions that support the integration of climate change and development goals.« less

Integrating climate change into the transportation planning process : final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-07-01

The objective of this study is to advance the practice and application of transportation planning among state, regional, and local transportation planning agencies to successfully meet growing concerns about the relationship between transportation an...

Hydroclimatological data and analyses from a headwaters region of Mongolia as boundary objects in interdisciplinary climate change research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venable, N. B. H.

2017-09-01

Collaborative work on increasingly complex hydroclimatic investigations often crosses disciplinary boundaries. Elements of scientific inquiry, such as data or the results of analyses can become objectified, or capable of being adopted and/or adapted by users from multiple disciplinary realms. These objects often provide a bridge for collaborative endeavors, or are used as tools by individuals pursuing multi-disciplinary work. Boundary object terminology was first formalized and applied by social scientists. However, few examples of the application of this useful framework are found in the hydrologic literature. The construct is applied here to identify and discuss how common research products and processes are used both internally and externally through providing examples from a project examining the historical and paleo proxy-based hydroclimatology of a headwaters region of Mongolia. The boundary object concept is valuable to consider when conducting and critiquing basic research, collaborating across multiple disciplinary teams as when studying climate change issues, as an individual researcher working in a cross boundary sense using methods from differing disciplines to answer questions, and/or when one group adapts the work of another to their own research problems or interpretive needs, as occurred with selected products of this project.

A new approach to the renewable energy-growth nexus: evidence from the USA.

PubMed

Gozgor, Giray

2018-06-01

The climate change is one of the leading problems in the today's world. The rise of the renewable energy meets the sustainable growth objectives since it can decelerate the climate change. For this purpose, this paper investigates the relationship between the renewable energy consumption and the economic growth in the United States (USA). Theoretically, the paper constructs the growth model that captures the effects of the economic complexity indicator as a measure of capabilities and productivity for exporting the "complex" (high value-added) products. Empirically, the paper uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) estimations and observes that both the economic complexity and the renewable energy consumption lead to a higher rate of economic growth in the USA for the period from 1965 to 2016. The paper also discusses the potential policy implications of the results for achieving the sustainable growth objectives.

CLIMCONG: A framework-tool for assessing CLIMate CONGruency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buras, Allan; Kölling, Christian; Menzel, Annette

2016-04-01

It is widely accepted that the anticipated elevational and latitudinal shifting of climate forces living organisms (including humans) to track these changes in space over a certain time. Due to the complexity of climate change, prediction of consequent migrations is a difficult procedure afflicted with many uncertainties. To simplify climate complexity and ease respective attempts, various approaches aimed at classifying global climates. For instance, the frequently used Köppen-Geiger climate classification (Köppen, 1900) has been applied to predict the shift of climate zones throughout the 21st century (Rubel and Kottek, 2010). Another - more objective but also more complex - classification approach has recently been presented by Metzger et al. (2013). Though being comprehensive, classifications have certain drawbacks, as I) often focusing on few variables, II) having discrete borders at the margins of classes, and III) subjective selection of an arbitrary number of classes. Ecological theory suggests that when only considering temperature and precipitation (such as Köppen, 1900) particular climate features - e.g. radiation and plant water availability - may not be represented with sufficient precision. Furthermore, sharp boundaries among homogeneous classes do not reflect natural gradients. To overcome the aforementioned drawbacks, we here present CLIMCONG - a framework-tool for assessing climate congruency for quantitatively describing climate similarity through continua in space and time. CLIMCONG allows users to individually select variables for calculation of climate congruency. By this, particular foci can be specified, depending on actual research questions posed towards climate change. For instance, while ecologists focus on a multitude of parameters driving net ecosystem productivity, water managers may only be interested in variables related to drought extremes and water availability. Based on the chosen parameters CLIMCONG determines congruency of climates using Manhattan distances among locations. First applications of CLIMCONG were to I) globally cluster congruent eco-climates resulting in a classification being more objective than Köppen (1900) but at comparable complexity, II) successfully model MODIS average annual net primary productivity globally (R² = 0.69), and III) identify recent climates (with foci varying from eco-climates over water availability to extreme events) most similar to the predicted (RCP-scenarios) climate of given locations worldwide without being restricted to classifications. Using CLIMCONG it thereby becomes possible to track the 'migration' of local climate conditions throughout the 20th and 21st century. Further applications are planned and a CLIMCONG 'R'-package is under preparation. Köppen, W., 1900: Versuch einer Klassifikation der Klimate, vorzugsweise nach ihren Beziehungen zur Pflanzenwelt. - Geogr. Zeitschr. 6, 593-611, 657-679. Metzger, M.J., Bunce, R.G.H., Jongman, R.H.G, Sayre, R., Trabucco, A., and Zomer, R., 2013: A high-resolution bioclimate map of the world: a unifying framework for global biodiversity research and monitoring. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 22, 630-638. Rubel, F., and Kottek, M., 2010: Observed and projected climate shifts 1901-2100 depicted by world maps of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 19, 135-141.

Integration of research advances in modelling and monitoring in support of WFD river basin management planning in the context of climate change.

PubMed

Quevauviller, Philippe; Barceló, Damia; Beniston, Martin; Djordjevic, Slobodan; Harding, Richard J; Iglesias, Ana; Ludwig, Ralf; Navarra, Antonio; Navarro Ortega, Alícia; Mark, Ole; Roson, Roberto; Sempere, Daniel; Stoffel, Markus; van Lanen, Henny A J; Werner, Micha

2012-12-01

The integration of scientific knowledge about possible climate change impacts on water resources has a direct implication on the way water policies are being implemented and evolving. This is particularly true regarding various technical steps embedded into the EU Water Framework Directive river basin management planning, such as risk characterisation, monitoring, design and implementation of action programmes and evaluation of the "good status" objective achievements (in 2015). The need to incorporate climate change considerations into the implementation of EU water policy is currently discussed with a wide range of experts and stakeholders at EU level. Research trends are also on-going, striving to support policy developments and examining how scientific findings and recommendations could be best taken on board by policy-makers and water managers within the forthcoming years. This paper provides a snapshot of policy discussions about climate change in the context of the WFD river basin management planning and specific advancements of related EU-funded research projects. Perspectives for strengthening links among the scientific and policy-making communities in this area are also highlighted. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

ARM Climate Research Facility Annual Report 2004

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voyles, J.

2004-12-31

Like a rock that slowly wears away beneath the pressure of a waterfall, planet earth?s climate is almost imperceptibly changing. Glaciers are getting smaller, droughts are lasting longer, and extreme weather events like fires, floods, and tornadoes are occurring with greater frequency. Why? Part of the answer is clouds and the amount of solar radiation they reflect or absorb. These two factors clouds and radiative transfer represent the greatest source of error and uncertainty in the current generation of general circulation models used for climate research and simulation. The U.S. Global Change Research Act of 1990 established an interagency programmore » within the Executive Office of the President to coordinate U.S. agency-sponsored scientific research designed to monitor, understand, and predict changes in the global environment. To address the need for new research on clouds and radiation, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) established the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program. As part of the DOE?s overall Climate Change Science Program, a primary objective of the ARM Program is improved scientific understanding of the fundamental physics related to interactions between clouds and radiative feedback processes in the atmosphere.« less

Integrating Climate Change Science and Sustainability in Environmental Science, Sociology, Philosophy and Business Courses.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boudrias, M. A.; Cantzler, J.; Croom, S.; Huston, C.; Woods, M.

2015-12-01

Courses on sustainability can be taught from multiple perspectives with some focused on specific areas (environmental, socio-cultural, economic, ethics) and others taking a more integrated approach across areas of sustainability and academic disciplines. In conjunction with the Climate Change Education Program efforts to enhance climate change literacy with innovative approaches, resources and communication strategies developed by Climate Education Partners were used in two distinct ways to integrate climate change science and impacts into undergraduate and graduate level courses. At the graduate level, the first lecture in the MBA program in Sustainable Supply Chain Management is entirely dedicated to climate change science, local and global impacts and discussions about key messages to communicate to the business community. Basic science concepts are integrated with discussions about mitigation and adaptation focused on business leaders. The concepts learned are then applied to the semester-long business plan project for the students. At the undergraduate level, a new model of comprehensive integration across disciplines was implemented in Spring 2015 across three courses on Sustainability each with a specific lens: Natural Science, Sociology and Philosophy. All three courses used climate change as the 'big picture' framing concept and had similar learning objectives creating a framework where lens-specific topics, focusing on depth in a discipline, were balanced with integrated exercises across disciplines providing breadth and possibilities for integration. The comprehensive integration project was the creation of the climate action plan for the university with each team focused on key areas of action (water, energy, transportation, etc.) and each team built with at least one member from each class ensuring a natural science, sociological and philosophical perspective. The final project was presented orally to all three classes and an integrated paper included all three perspectives. The best projects are being compiled so they can be shared with the University of San Diego's planning committee.

High Resolution Modelling of Crop Response to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirmasoudi, S. S.; Byrne, J. M.; MacDonald, R. J.; Lewis, D.

2014-12-01

Crop production is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climatic variability and change. Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration and other greenhouse gases are causing increases in global temperature. In western North America, water supply is largely derived from mountain snowmelt. Climate change will have a significant impact on mountain snowpack and subsequently, the snow-derived water supply. This will strain water supplies and increase water demand in areas with substantial irrigation agriculture. Increasing temperatures may create heat stress for some crops regardless of soil water supply, and increasing surface O3 and other pollutants may damage crops and ecosystems. CO2 fertilization may or may not be an advantage in future. This work is part of a larger study that will address a series of questions based on a range of future climate scenarios for several watersheds in western North America. The key questions are: (1) how will snowmelt and rainfall runoff vary in future; (2) how will seasonal and inter-annual soil water supply vary, and how might that impacts food supplies; (3) how might heat stress impact (some) crops even with adequate soil water; (4) will CO2 fertilization alter crop yields; and (5) will pollution loads, particularly O3, cause meaningful changes to crop yields? The Generate Earth Systems Science (GENESYS) Spatial Hydrometeorological Model is an innovative, efficient, high-resolution model designed to assess climate driven changes in mountain snowpack derived water supplies. We will link GENESYS to the CROPWAT crop model system to assess climate driven changes in water requirement and associated crop productivity for a range of future climate scenarios. Literature bases studies will be utilised to develop approximate crop response functions for heat stress, CO2 fertilization and for O3 damages. The overall objective is to create modeling systems that allows meaningful assessment of agricultural productivity at a watershed scale under a range of climate scenarios.

Energy Switching Threshold for Climatic Benefits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.

2013-12-01

Climate change is one of the great challenges facing humanity currently and in the future. Its most severe impacts may still be avoided if efforts are made to transform current energy systems (1). A transition from the global system of high Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission electricity generation to low GHG emission energy technologies is required to mitigate climate change (2). Natural gas is increasingly seen as a choice for transitions to renewable sources. However, recent researches in energy and climate puzzled about the climate implications of relying more energy on natural gas. On one hand, a shift to natural gas is promoted as climate mitigation because it has lower carbon per unit energy than coal (3). On the other hand, the effect of switching to natural gas on nuclear-power and other renewable energies development may offset benefits from fuel-switching (4). Cheap natural gas is causing both coal plants and nuclear plants to close in the US. The objective of this study is to measure and evaluate the threshold of energy switching for climatic benefits. We hypothesized that the threshold ratio of energy switching for climatic benefits is related to GHGs emission factors of energy technologies, but the relation is not linear. A model was developed to study the fuel switching threshold for greenhouse gas emission reduction, and transition from coal and nuclear electricity generation to natural gas electricity generation was analyzed as a case study. The results showed that: (i) the threshold ratio of multi-energy switching for climatic benefits changes with GHGs emission factors of energy technologies. (ii)The mathematical relation between the threshold ratio of energy switching and GHGs emission factors of energies is a curved surface function. (iii) The analysis of energy switching threshold for climatic benefits can be used for energy and climate policy decision support.

Lessons Learned on Health Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change: Experiences Across Low- and Middle-Income Countries

PubMed Central

Otmani del Barrio, Mariam

2017-01-01

Background: There is limited published evidence of the effectiveness of adaptation in managing the health risks of climate variability and change in low- and middle-income countries. Objectives: To document lessons learned and good practice examples from health adaptation pilot projects in low- and middle-income countries to facilitate assessing and overcoming barriers to implementation and to scaling up. Methods: We evaluated project reports and related materials from the first five years of implementation (2008–2013) of multinational health adaptation projects in Albania, Barbados, Bhutan, China, Fiji, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kenya, Kyrgyzstan, Philippines, Russian Federation, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. We also collected qualitative data through a focus group consultation and 19 key informant interviews. Results: Our recommendations include that national health plans, policies, and budget processes need to explicitly incorporate the risks of current and projected climate variability and change. Increasing resilience is likely to be achieved through longer-term, multifaceted, and collaborative approaches, with supporting activities (and funding) for capacity building, communication, and institutionalized monitoring and evaluation. Projects should be encouraged to focus not just on shorter-term outputs to address climate variability, but also on establishing processes to address longer-term climate change challenges. Opportunities for capacity development should be created, identified, and reinforced. Conclusions: Our analyses highlight that, irrespective of resource constraints, ministries of health and other institutions working on climate-related health issues in low- and middle-income countries need to continue to prepare themselves to prevent additional health burdens in the context of a changing climate and socioeconomic development patterns. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP405 PMID:28632491

Science and Photography Linked in iPad and iPhone Apps About Climate Change and Repeat Photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braasch, G.; Hone, B.

2014-12-01

Red Hill Studio and World View of Global Warming co-developed apps for the iPad and iPhone which graphically show climate-driven changes in repeat photographs and maps. The climate app, with 17 interactive screens that show climate changes to glaciers, coasts, rivers and world temperature, reaches a new part of the public, was featured in USA Today and is used in schoolrooms and museums. It led a list of top ten climate apps for 2012. The low price for this app encourages more users and income is being shared with the Union of Concerned Scientists. Red Hill Studio is also developing an app which is an aid for making time series and repeat photography. The Now & Then Cam app will allow scientists and citizens to take closely aligned repeat photos by overlaying the iPad/iPhone's camera image on top of an archival photo. This guides the photographer back towards the original location of the archival shot - leading to a more carefully aligned repeat photograph. The developers hope this app will contribute to both scientific and artistic creation of time-series photographs, an important and persuasive visualization of change. The Painting with Time and Now & Then Cam apps build upon a traveling museum exhibition, Playing with Time, and an international documentary special, Exploring Time, that were developed by Red Hill Studios under grants from the National Science Foundation. The app programmers, Charlie Brown and J.A. Nelson, use Objective C to create fluid, responsive interfaces with no distracting latencies or delays. World View of Global Warming is an independent photojournalistic documentation of global warming and rapid climate change begun in 1999. Repeat and time-series photography is an integral part it its climate communication.

Cyclones and extreme windstorm events over Europe under climate change: Global and regional climate model diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.

2003-04-01

More than any changes of the climate system mean state conditions, the development of extreme events may influence social, economic and legal aspects of our society. This linkage results from the impact of extreme climate events (natural hazards) on environmental systems which again are directly linked to human activities. Prominent examples from the recent past are the record breaking rainfall amounts of August 2002 in central Europe which produced widespread floodings or the wind storm Lothar of December 1999. Within the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) project framework an assessment of the impact of changes in extremes will be done. The investigation is carried out for several different impact categories as agriculture, energy use and property damage. Focus is laid on the diagnostics of GCM and RCM simulations under different climate change scenarios. In this study we concentrate on extreme windstorms and their relationship to cyclone activity in the global HADCM3 as well as in the regional HADRM3 model under two climate change scenarios (SRESA2a, B2a). In order to identify cyclones we used an objective algorithm from Murry and Simmonds which was widely tested under several different conditions. A slight increase in the occurrence of systems is identified above northern parts of central Europe for both scenarios. For more severe systems (core pressure < 990 hPa) we find an increase for western Europe. Strong wind events can be defined via different percentile values of the windspeed (e.g. above the 95 percentile). By this means the relationship between strong wind events and cyclones is also investigated. For several regions (e.g. Germany, France, Spain) a shift to more deep cyclones connected with an increasing number of strong wind events is found.

Setting Goals for Urban Scale Climate Governance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenthal, J. K.; Brunner, E.

2007-12-01

The impacts of climate change on temperate urban areas may include the increase in frequency and intensity of damaging extreme weather events, such as heat waves, hurricanes, heavy rainfall or drought, and coastal flooding and erosion, and potential adverse impacts on infrastructure, energy systems, and public health. Warmer average summertime temperatures are also associated with environmental and public health liabilities, such as decreased air quality and increased peak electrical demand. Simultaneously, a strong global trend towards urbanization of poverty exists, with increased challenges for local governments to protect and sustain the well-being of growing cities and populations currently stressed by poverty, health and economic inequities. In the context of these trends, research at the city scale has sought to understand the social and economic impacts of climate change and variability and to evaluate strategies in the built environment that might serve as adaptive and mitigative responses to climate change. We review the goals and outcomes of several municipal climate protection programs, generally categorized as approaches based on technological innovation (e.g., new materials); changes in behavior and public education (e.g., neighborhood watch programs and cooling centers); improvements in urban design (e.g., zoning for mixed land-use; the use of water, vegetation and plazas to reduce the urban heat island effect); and efforts to incentivize the use of non-fossil-fuel based energy sources. Urban initiatives in European and American cities are assessed within the context of the global collective efforts enacted by the Kyoto Protocol and United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Our concern is to understand the active networked role of urban managers in climate policies and programs in relation to supranational objectives and non-state actors.

Climate change projections of heat stress in Europe: From meteorological variables to impacts on productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casanueva, Ana; Kotlarski, Sven; Liniger, Mark A.

2017-04-01

Future climate change is likely to have important impacts in many socio-economic sectors. In particular, higher summer temperatures or more prolonged heat waves may be responsible for health problems and productivity losses related to heat stress, especially affecting people exposed to such situations (e.g. working under outside settings or in non-acclimatized workplaces). Heat stress on the body under work load and consequently their productivity loss can be described through heat stress indices that are based on multiple meteorological parameters such as temperature, humidity, wind and radiation. Exploring the changes of these variables under a warmer climate is of prime importance for the Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability communities. In particular, the H2020 project HEAT-SHIELD aims at analyzing the impact of climate change on heat stress in strategic industries in Europe (manufacturing, construction, transportation, tourism and agriculture) within an inter-sectoral framework (climate scientists, biometeorologists, physiologists and stakeholders). In the present work we explore present and future heat stress over Europe using an ensemble of the state-of-the-art RCMs from the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Since RCMs cannot be directly used in impact studies due to their partly substantial biases, a standard bias correction method (empirical quantile mapping) is applied to correct the individual variables that are then used to derive heat stress indices. The objectives of this study are twofold, 1) to test the ability of the separately bias corrected variables to reproduce the main characteristics of heat stress indices in present climate conditions and 2) to explore climate change projections of heat stress indices. We use the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) as primary heat stress index, considering two different versions for indoor (or in the shade, based on temperature and humidity conditions) and outdoor settings (including also wind and radiation). The WBGT is the most widely used heat stress index for working people and can be easily interpreted by means of ISO standards. Within the HEAT-SHIELD project, climate change projections of the WBGT will be used to assess the impact of climate change on workers' health and productivity.

Mainstreaming Climate Change: Recent and Ongoing Efforts to Understand, Improve, and Expand Consideration of Climate Change in Federal Water Resources Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferguson, I. M.; McGuire, M.; Broman, D.; Gangopadhyay, S.

2017-12-01

The Bureau of Reclamation is a Federal agency tasked with developing and managing water supply and hydropower projects in the Western U.S. Climate and hydrologic variability and change significantly impact management actions and outcomes across Reclamation's programs and initiatives, including water resource planning and operations, infrastructure design and maintenance, hydropower generation, and ecosystem restoration, among others. Planning, design, and implementation of these programs therefore requires consideration of future climate and hydrologic conditions will impact program objectives. Over the past decade, Reclamation and other Federal agencies have adopted new guidelines, directives, and mandates that require consideration of climate change in water resources planning and decision making. Meanwhile, the scientific community has developed a large number of climate projections, along with an array of models, methods, and tools to facilitate consideration of climate projections in planning and decision making. However, water resources engineers, planners, and decision makers continue to face challenges regarding how best to use the available data and tools to support major decisions, including decisions regarding infrastructure investments and long-term operating criteria. This presentation will discuss recent and ongoing research towards understanding, improving, and expanding consideration of climate projections and related uncertainties in Federal water resources planning and decision making. These research efforts address a variety of challenges, including: How to choose between available climate projection datasets and related methods, models, and tools—many of which are considered experimental or research tools? How to select an appropriate decision framework when design or operating alternatives may differ between climate scenarios? How to effectively communicate results of a climate impacts analysis to decision makers? And, how to improve robustness and resilience of water resources systems in the face of significant uncertainty? Discussion will focus on the intersection between technical challenges and decision making paradigms and the need for improved scientist-decision maker engagement through the lens of this Federal water management agency.

Experience of the Paris Research Consortium Climate-Environment-Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joussaume, Sylvie; Pacteau, Chantal; Vanderlinden, Jean Paul

2016-04-01

It is now widely recognized that the complexity of climate change issues translates itself into a need for interdisciplinary approaches to science. This allows to first achieve a more comprehensive vision of climate change and, second, to better inform the decision-making processes. However, it seems that willingness alone is rarely enough to implement interdisciplinarity. The purpose of this presentation is to mobilize reflexivity to revisit and analyze the experience of the Paris Consortium for Climate-Environment-Society. The French Consortium Climate-Environment-Society aims to develop, fund and coordinate interdisciplinary research into climate change and its impacts on society and environment. Launched in 2007, the consortium relies on the research expertise of 17 laboratories and federation in the Paris area working mainly in the fields of climatology, hydrology, ecology, health sciences, and the humanities and social sciences. As examples, economists and climatologists have studied greenhouse gas emission scenarios compatible with climate stabilization goals. Historical records have provided both knowledge about past climate change and vulnerability of societies. Some regions, as the Mediterranean and the Sahel, are particularly vulnerable and already have to cope with water availability, agricultural production and even health issues. A project showed that millet production in West Africa is expected to decline due to warming in a higher proportion than observed in recent decades. Climate change also raises many questions concerning health: combined effects of warming and air quality, impacts on the production of pollens and allergies, impacts on infectious diseases. All these issues lead to a need for approaches integrating different disciplines. Furthermore, climate change impacts many ecosystems which, in turn, affect its evolution. Our experience shows that interdisciplinarity supposes, in order to take shape, the conjunction between programming choices, supporting this kind of approach, and autonomy given to experimenting with interdisciplinary practices. The interdisciplinary approach does not put itself in place and requires a collective reflection on the objectives and practices. Many tools exist to support this process, in particular to mature interdisciplinarity. This incubation period allows the various disciplines to learn to know each other and to build a common conceptual and methodological basis.

A Sociotechnical Framework for Governing Climate Engineering

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Proposed ways of governing climate engineering have most often been supported by narrowly framed and unreflexive appraisals and processes. This article explores the governance implications of a Deliberative Mapping project that, unlike other governance principles, have emerged from an extensive process of reflection and reflexivity. In turn, the project has made significant advances in addressing the current deficit of responsibly defined criteria for shaping governance propositions. Three such propositions argue that (1) reflexive foresight of the imagined futures in which climate engineering proposals might reside is required; (2) the performance and acceptance of climate engineering proposals should be decided in terms of robustness, not optimality; and (3) climate engineering proposals should be satisfactorily opened up before they can be considered legitimate objects of governance. Taken together, these propositions offer a sociotechnical framework not simply for governing climate engineering but for governing responses to climate change at large. PMID:26973363

Climate change adaptation in a highly urbanized snowmelt dominated basin in Central Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Bustos, E.; Merino, P.; Henriquez Dole, L. E.; Jansen, S.; Gil, M.; Ocampo, A.; Poblete, D.; Tosoni, D.; Meza, F. J.; Donoso, G.; Melo, O.

2015-12-01

The Maipo river basin holds 40% of Chile's total population and produces almost half of the country's Gross Domestic Product. The basin is located in the semiarid and snowmelt dominated central region of the country and, aside from the typical pressures of growth in developing country basins, the Maipo river basin faces climate change impacts associated with a reduction in total runoff and changes in its seasonality. Surface water is the main water source for human settlements, natural ecosystems, and economic activities including agriculture, mining and hydropower production. In 2012 a research project, called MAPA (Maipo Plan de Adaptacion), began with the objective of articulating a climate variability and climate change adaptation plan for the Maipo river basin. The project engaged at the beginning a group of relevant water and land use stakeholders which allowed for a good representation of critical aspects of an adaptation plan such as the definition of objectives and performance indicators, future land use scenarios, modeling of the different components of the system and design of adaptation strategies. The presentation will highlight the main results of the research project with a special focus on the upper catchments of the basin. These results include the assessment of impacts associated with future climate and land use scenarios on key components of the hydrologic cycle including snowmelt and glacier contribution to runoff and subsequent impacts on water availability for the operation of hydropower facilities, satisfaction of instream (recreation and aquatic ecosystem) uses and provision of water for the city of Santiago (7 million people) and to irrigate more than 100,000 hectares of high value crops. The integrative approach followed in this project including different perspectives on the use of water in the basin provides a good opportunity to test the varying degree of impacts that could be associated with a given future scenario and also understand the challenges and opportunities that exist in the process of designing and implementing adaptation strategies.

Advancing computational methods for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Application for modeling climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Neuse Watershed of North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercan, Mehmet Bulent

Watershed-scale hydrologic models are used for a variety of applications from flood prediction, to drought analysis, to water quality assessments. A particular challenge in applying these models is calibration of the model parameters, many of which are difficult to measure at the watershed-scale. A primary goal of this dissertation is to contribute new computational methods and tools for calibration of watershed-scale hydrologic models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, in particular. SWAT is a physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water quality and quantity. The dissertation follows a manuscript format meaning it is comprised of three separate but interrelated research studies. The first two research studies focus on SWAT model calibration, and the third research study presents an application of the new calibration methods and tools to study climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Neuse Watershed of North Carolina using SWAT. The objective of the first two studies is to overcome computational challenges associated with calibration of SWAT models. The first study evaluates a parallel SWAT calibration tool built using the Windows Azure cloud environment and a parallel version of the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) calibration method modified to run in Azure. The calibration tool was tested for six model scenarios constructed using three watersheds of increasing size (the Eno, Upper Neuse, and Neuse) for both a 2 year and 10 year simulation duration. Leveraging the cloud as an on demand computing resource allowed for a significantly reduced calibration time such that calibration of the Neuse watershed went from taking 207 hours on a personal computer to only 3.4 hours using 256 cores in the Azure cloud. The second study aims at increasing SWAT model calibration efficiency by creating an open source, multi-objective calibration tool using the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II). This tool was demonstrated through an application for the Upper Neuse Watershed in North Carolina, USA. The objective functions used for the calibration were Nash-Sutcliffe (E) and Percent Bias (PB), and the objective sites were the Flat, Little, and Eno watershed outlets. The results show that the use of multi-objective calibration algorithms for SWAT calibration improved model performance especially in terms of minimizing PB compared to the single objective model calibration. The third study builds upon the first two studies by leveraging the new calibration methods and tools to study future climate impacts on the Upper Neuse watershed. Statistically downscaled outputs from eight Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were used for both low and high emission scenarios to drive a well calibrated SWAT model of the Upper Neuse watershed. The objective of the study was to understand the potential hydrologic response of the watershed, which serves as a public water supply for the growing Research Triangle Park region of North Carolina, under projected climate change scenarios. The future climate change scenarios, in general, indicate an increase in precipitation and temperature for the watershed in coming decades. The SWAT simulations using the future climate scenarios, in general, suggest an increase in soil water and water yield, and a decrease in evapotranspiration within the Upper Neuse watershed. In summary, this dissertation advances the field of watershed-scale hydrologic modeling by (i) providing some of the first work to apply cloud computing for the computationally-demanding task of model calibration; (ii) providing a new, open source library that can be used by SWAT modelers to perform multi-objective calibration of their models; and (iii) advancing understanding of climate change impacts on water resources for an important watershed in the Research Triangle Park region of North Carolina. The third study leveraged the methodological advances presented in the first two studies. Therefore, the dissertation contains three independent by interrelated studies that collectively advance the field of watershed-scale hydrologic modeling and analysis.

Current Climate Variability & Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diem, J.; Criswell, B.; Elliott, W. C.

2013-12-01

Current Climate Variability & Change is the ninth among a suite of ten interconnected, sequential labs that address all 39 climate-literacy concepts in the U.S. Global Change Research Program's Climate Literacy: The Essential Principles of Climate Sciences. The labs are as follows: Solar Radiation & Seasons, Stratospheric Ozone, The Troposphere, The Carbon Cycle, Global Surface Temperature, Glacial-Interglacial Cycles, Temperature Changes over the Past Millennium, Climates & Ecosystems, Current Climate Variability & Change, and Future Climate Change. All are inquiry-based, on-line products designed in a way that enables students to construct their own knowledge of a topic. Questions representative of various levels of Webb's depth of knowledge are embedded in each lab. In addition to the embedded questions, each lab has three or four essential questions related to the driving questions for the lab suite. These essential questions are presented as statements at the beginning of the material to represent the lab objectives, and then are asked at the end as questions to function as a summative assessment. For example, the Current Climate Variability & Change is built around these essential questions: (1) What has happened to the global temperature at the Earth's surface, in the middle troposphere, and in the lower stratosphere over the past several decades?; (2) What is the most likely cause of the changes in global temperature over the past several decades and what evidence is there that this is the cause?; and (3) What have been some of the clearly defined effects of the change in global temperature on the atmosphere and other spheres of the Earth system? An introductory Prezi allows the instructor to assess students' prior knowledge in relation to these questions, while also providing 'hooks' to pique their interest related to the topic. The lab begins by presenting examples of and key differences between climate variability (e.g., Mt. Pinatubo eruption) and climate change. The next section guides students through the exploration of temporal changes in global temperature from the surface to the lower stratosphere. Students discover that there has been global warming over the past several decades, and the subsequent section allows them to consider solar radiation and greenhouse gases as possible causes of this warming. Students then zoom in on different latitudinal zones to examine changes in temperature for each zone and hypothesize about why one zone may have warmed more than others. The final section, prior to the answering of the essential questions, is an examination of the following effects of the current change in temperatures: loss of sea ice; rise of sea level; loss of permafrost loss; and moistening of the atmosphere. The lab addresses 14 climate-literacy concepts and all seven climate-literacy principles through data and images that are mainly NASA products. It focuses on the satellite era of climate data; therefore, 1979 is the typical starting year for most datasets used by students. Additionally, all time-series analysis end with the latest year with full-year data availability; thus, the climate variability and trends truly are 'current.'

Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vane, Deborah

1993-01-01

A discussion of the objectives of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) and the Continental-scale International Project (GCIP) is presented in vugraph form. The objectives of GEWEX are as follows: determine the hydrological cycle by global measurements; model the global hydrological cycle; improve observations and data assimilation; and predict response to environmental change. The objectives of GCIP are as follows: determine the time/space variability of the hydrological cycle over a continental-scale region; develop macro-scale hydrologic models that are coupled to atmospheric models; develop information retrieval schemes; and support regional climate change impact assessment.

Climate negotiators' and scientists' assessments of the climate negotiations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, Astrid; Zitzelsberger, Sonja; Tavoni, Alessandro

2017-06-01

Climate negotiation outcomes are difficult to evaluate objectively because there are no clear reference scenarios. Subjective assessments from those directly involved in the negotiations are particularly important, as this may influence strategy and future negotiation participation. Here we analyse the perceived success of the climate negotiations in a sample of 656 experts involved in international climate policy. Respondents were pessimistic when asked for specific assessments of the current approach centred on voluntary pledges, but were more optimistic when asked for general assessments of the outcomes and usefulness of the climate negotiations. Individuals who were more involved in the negotiation process tended to be more optimistic, especially in terms of general assessments. Our results indicate that two reinforcing effects are at work: a high degree of involvement changes individuals' perceptions and more optimistic individuals are more inclined to remain involved in the negotiations.

Impact of climate change on human health and health systems in Tanzania: a review.

PubMed

Mboera, Leonard E G; Mayala, Benjamin K; Kweka, Eliningaya J; Mazigo, Humphrey D

2011-12-01

Climate change (CC) has a number of immediate and long-term impacts on the fundamental determinants of human health. A number of potential human health effects have been associated either directly or indirectly with global climate change. Vulnerability to the risks associated with CC may exacerbate ongoing socio-economic challenges. The objective of this review was to analyse the potential risk and vulnerability in the context of climate-sensitive human diseases and health system in Tanzania. Climate sensitive vector- and waterborne diseases and other health related problems and the policies on climate adaptation in Tanzania during the past 50 years are reviewed. The review has shown that a number of climate-associated infectious disease epidemics have been reported in various areas of the country; mostly being associated with increase in precipitation and temperature. Although, there is no single policy document that specifically addresses issues of CC in the country, the National Environmental Management Act of 1997 recognizes the importance of CC and calls for the government to put up measures to address the phenomenon. A number of strategies and action plans related to CC are also in place. These include the National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan, the National Action Programme, and the National Bio-safety Framework. The government has put in place a National Climate Change Steering Committee and the National Climate Change Technical Committee to oversee and guide the implementation of CC activities in the country. Recognizing the adverse impacts of natural disasters and calamities, the government established a Disaster Management Division under the Prime Minister's Office. Epidemic Preparedness and Response Unit of the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare is responsible for emergency preparedness, mostly disease outbreaks. However, specific climate changes associated with human health issues are poorly addressed in the MoHSW strategies and the national health research priorities. In conclusion, CC threatens to slow, halt or reverses the progress the country has made or is making to achieve its national and millennium development goals. It is therefore important that Tanzania prepares itself to appropriately address CC impact on human health. It is equally important that policy makers and other stakeholders are engaged in a process to update and adapt priorities, mobilize resources and build interdisciplinary research and implementation capacity on climate change and its mitigation.

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI–MIP): Project framework

PubMed Central

Warszawski, Lila; Frieler, Katja; Huber, Veronika; Piontek, Franziska; Serdeczny, Olivia; Schewe, Jacob

2014-01-01

The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project offers a framework to compare climate impact projections in different sectors and at different scales. Consistent climate and socio-economic input data provide the basis for a cross-sectoral integration of impact projections. The project is designed to enable quantitative synthesis of climate change impacts at different levels of global warming. This report briefly outlines the objectives and framework of the first, fast-tracked phase of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, based on global impact models, and provides an overview of the participating models, input data, and scenario set-up. PMID:24344316

Assessing the impact of future land use and land cover changes on climate over Brazilian semiarid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cunha, A. M.; Alvalá, R. S.; Kubota, P. Y.; Vieira, R.

2013-12-01

The continental surface vegetal cover has been considerably changed by human activities, mainly through natural vegetation conversion in grasslands. Such changes in surface cover may impact the regional and global climates, through of the changes in biophysical processes and CO2 exchanges between vegetation and atmosphere. In recent decades, most of the Brazilian territory has been presenting transformation in the land use/cover spatial patterns. The typical vegetation of the Brazilian semiarid, known as caatinga (closed shrubland) had been replaced by pasture lands. Based on that, the main objective of this work was to investigate the impacts of future land cover and land use changes (LCLUC) on surface processes and on the climate of Brazilian semiarid region. Numerical experiments using the AGCM/CPTEC/IBIS were performed in order to investigate the impacts of LCLUC on the climate of Brazilian semiarid due to the replacement of natural vegetation by pasture and degraded areas. The climate impacts of LUCC were assessed using climate simulations considering two scenarios of vegetation distribution: i) Potential Vegetation (Control) and ii) Future scenario of the vegetation: maximum pasture limited by areas of desert and semidesert. These degraded areas were obtained from the future projection of the biome distribution in South America developed by Salazar Velasquez (2009) using CPTEC PVMReg and emission scenarios A2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In general, the simulation results showed that the LCLUC, due to the changes in relevant surface variables, has caused alterations in local and neighborhood regions climate. The LCLUC leads to a decrease in mean rainfall during dry season at study area. A meridional dipole pattern with near surface temperature increase (reduction) in the northern (southern) areas of semiarid was found. The results also highlight that LUCC led to changes in the components of the surface energy and carbon balance. These results suggest that LCLUC, even on a small scale in Brazil's semiarid region, can cause climate impacts, in local and regional scale. Finally, we highlight that the diagnosis of the evolution of LUCC and its climatic implications are essential to guide policy makers in regard to resources application and on policies development, in order to achieve a better management and planning for this important region of the country.

Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture: results of inventory analysis in COST 734 countries.

PubMed

Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef; Alexandrov, Vesselin; Toulios, Leonidas; Calanca, Pierluigi; Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, Jørgen E

2008-12-01

Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate change analysis, studies, and impact at the European level. The results were discussed with respect to their spatial distribution in Europe and to identify possible common long- and short-term strategies for adaptation.

Snowmelt Pattern and Lake Ice Phenology around Tibetan Plateau Estimated from Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, C.; Shi, J.; Wang, T.

2017-12-01

Snow and ice is very sensitive to the climate change. Rising air temperature will cause the snowmelt time change. In contrast, the change in snow state will have feedback on climate through snow albedo. The snow melt timing is also correlated with the associated runoff. Ice phenology describes the seasonal cycle of lake ice cover and includes freeze-up and breakup periods and ice cover duration, which is an important weather and climate indicator. It is also important for lake-atmosphere interactions and hydrological and ecological processes. The enhanced resolution (up to 3.125 km) passive microwave data is used to estimate the snowmelt pattern and lake ice phenology on and around Tibetan Plateau. The enhanced resolution makes the estimation of snowmelt and lake ice phenology in more spatial detail compared to previous 25 km gridded passive microwave data. New algorithm based on smooth filters and change point detection was developed to estimate the snowmelt and lake ice freeze-up and break-up timing. Spatial and temporal pattern of snowmelt and lake ice phonology are estimated. This study provides an objective evidence of climate change impact on the cryospheric system on Tibetan Plateau. The results show significant earlier snowmelt and lake ice break-up in some regions.

Climate change-related temperature impacts on warm season heat mortality: a proof-of-concept methodology using BenMAP.

PubMed

Voorhees, A Scott; Fann, Neal; Fulcher, Charles; Dolwick, Patrick; Hubbell, Bryan; Bierwagen, Britta; Morefield, Philip

2011-02-15

Climate change is anticipated to raise overall temperatures and is likely to increase heat-related human health morbidity and mortality risks. The objective of this work was to develop a proof-of-concept approach for estimating excess heat-related premature deaths in the continental United States resulting from potential changes in future temperature using the BenMAP model. In this approach we adapt the methods and tools that the US Environmental Protection Agency uses to assess air pollution health impacts by incorporating temperature modeling and heat mortality health impact functions. This new method demonstrates the ability to apply the existing temperature-health literature to quantify prospective changes in climate-sensitive heat-related mortality. We compared estimates of future temperature with and without climate change and applied heat-mortality health functions to estimate relative changes in heat-related premature mortality. Using the A1B emissions scenario, we applied the GISS-II global circulation model downscaled to 36-km using MM5 and formatted using the Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor. For averaged temperatures derived from the 5 years 2048-2052 relative to 1999-2003 we estimated for the warm season May-September a national U.S. estimate of annual incidence of heat-related mortality to be 3700-3800 from all causes, 3500 from cardiovascular disease, and 21 000-27 000 from nonaccidental death, applying various health impact functions. Our estimates of mortality, produced to validate the application of a new methodology, suggest the importance of quantifying heat impacts in economic assessments of climate change.

Managing perennial revegetation in a changing climate: some lessons from ecohydrology.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smettem, K. R.; Waring, R.; Harper, R. J.; Callow, J. N.

2011-12-01

Interest in understanding the impacts of land use and climate change on ecosystem processes has emerged as a major area of research spanning the biological and physical sciences. South-West Australia faces a drying climate under all Global Climate Model (GCM) scenarios and over the last three decades there has already been a major decline in the volume of surface water resources available for the metropolitan water supply of the region. Climate change has been superimposed on major land use changes that have altered the water and salt balances of many catchments in this part of Australia. In the drier agricultural regions of South-West Australia that experience an annual water deficit, land clearing has resulted in increased groundwater recharge and there has been ongoing interest in the use of perennial vegetation to control groundwater rise by enhancing transpiration losses. Ecological optimality provides a first-order framework for understanding the relation between climate, leaf area index and biomass, which in turn influences catchment evapotranspiration (ET) and carbon sequestration. We review the results from a number of revegetation studies to understand the factors limiting the growth and survival of woody perennials in the landscape. By examining the inter-annual variations in leaf area index of native forested catchments using data from NASA's MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, we first relate LAI to climate indices and then develop allometric equations to estimate wood mass and carbon storage. Assuming that native perennial vegetation is in dynamic equilibrium with climate and provides a 'reference' state , we identify conditions under which perennial revegetation schemes can be deliberately designed to move outside the ecologically optimal range to achieve specific land management objectives.

Reducing abrupt climate change risk using the Montreal Protocol and other regulatory actions to complement cuts in CO2 emissions

PubMed Central

Molina, Mario; Zaelke, Durwood; Sarma, K. Madhava; Andersen, Stephen O.; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran; Kaniaru, Donald

2009-01-01

Current emissions of anthropogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) have already committed the planet to an increase in average surface temperature by the end of the century that may be above the critical threshold for tipping elements of the climate system into abrupt change with potentially irreversible and unmanageable consequences. This would mean that the climate system is close to entering if not already within the zone of “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI). Scientific and policy literature refers to the need for “early,” “urgent,” “rapid,” and “fast-action” mitigation to help avoid DAI and abrupt climate changes. We define “fast-action” to include regulatory measures that can begin within 2–3 years, be substantially implemented in 5–10 years, and produce a climate response within decades. We discuss strategies for short-lived non-CO2 GHGs and particles, where existing agreements can be used to accomplish mitigation objectives. Policy makers can amend the Montreal Protocol to phase down the production and consumption of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) with high global warming potential. Other fast-action strategies can reduce emissions of black carbon particles and precursor gases that lead to ozone formation in the lower atmosphere, and increase biosequestration, including through biochar. These and other fast-action strategies may reduce the risk of abrupt climate change in the next few decades by complementing cuts in CO2 emissions. PMID:19822751

A large-scale simulation of climate change effects on flood regime - A case study for the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dullo, T. T.; Gangrade, S.; Marshall, R.; Islam, S. R.; Ghafoor, S. K.; Kao, S. C.; Kalyanapu, A. J.

2017-12-01

The damage and cost of flooding are continuously increasing due to climate change and variability, which compels the development and advance of global flood hazard models. However, due to computational expensiveness, evaluation of large-scale and high-resolution flood regime remains a challenge. The objective of this research is to use a coupled modeling framework that consists of a dynamically downscaled suite of eleven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, a distributed hydrologic model called DHSVM, and a computational-efficient 2-dimensional hydraulic model called Flood2D-GPU to study the impacts of climate change on flood regime in the Alabama-Coosa-Tallapoosa (ACT) River Basin. Downscaled meteorologic forcings for 40 years in the historical period (1966-2005) and 40 years in the future period (2011-2050) were used as inputs to drive the calibrated DHSVM to generate annual maximum flood hydrographs. These flood hydrographs along with 30-m resolution digital elevation and estimated surface roughness were then used by Flood2D-GPU to estimate high-resolution flood depth, velocities, duration, and regime. Preliminary results for the Conasauga river basin (an upper subbasin within ACT) indicate that seven of the eleven climate projections show an average increase of 25 km2 in flooded area (between historic and future projections). Future work will focus on illustrating the effects of climate change on flood duration and area for the entire ACT basin.

Deriving a sea surface temperature record suitable for climate change research from the along-track scanning radiometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Merchant, C. J.; Llewellyn-Jones, D.; Saunders, R. W.; Rayner, N. A.; Kent, E. C.; Old, C. P.; Berry, D.; Birks, A. R.; Blackmore, T.; Corlett, G. K.; Embury, O.; Jay, V. L.; Kennedy, J.; Mutlow, C. T.; Nightingale, T. J.; O'Carroll, A. G.; Pritchard, M. J.; Remedios, J. J.; Tett, S.

We describe the approach to be adopted for a major new initiative to derive a homogeneous record of sea surface temperature for 1991 2007 from the observations of the series of three along-track scanning radiometers (ATSRs). This initiative is called (A)RC: (Advanced) ATSR Re-analysis for Climate. The main objectives are to reduce regional biases in retrieved sea surface temperature (SST) to less than 0.1 K for all global oceans, while creating a very homogenous record that is stable in time to within 0.05 K decade-1, with maximum independence of the record from existing analyses of SST used in climate change research. If these stringent targets are achieved, this record will enable significantly improved estimates of surface temperature trends and variability of sufficient quality to advance questions of climate change attribution, climate sensitivity and historical reconstruction of surface temperature changes. The approach includes development of new, consistent estimators for SST for each of the ATSRs, and detailed analysis of overlap periods. Novel aspects of the approach include generation of multiple versions of the record using alternative channel sets and cloud detection techniques, to assess for the first time the effect of such choices. There will be extensive effort in quality control, validation and analysis of the impact on climate SST data sets. Evidence for the plausibility of the 0.1 K target for systematic error is reviewed, as is the need for alternative cloud screening methods in this context.

Effect of climate change on environmental flow indicators in the narew basin, poland.

PubMed

Piniewski, Mikołaj; Laizé, Cédric L R; Acreman, Michael C; Okruszko, Tomasz; Schneider, Christof

2014-01-01

Environmental flows-the quantity of water required to maintain a river ecosystem in its desired state-are of particular importance in areas of high natural value. Water-dependent ecosystems are exposed to the risk of climate change through altered precipitation and evaporation. Rivers in the Narew basin in northeastern Poland are known for their valuable river and wetland ecosystems, many of them in pristine or near-pristine condition. The objective of this study was to assess changes in the environmental flow regime of the Narew river system, caused by climate change, as simulated by hydrological models with different degrees of physical characterization and spatial aggregation. Two models were assessed: the river basin scale model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the continental model of water availability and use WaterGAP. Future climate change scenarios were provided by two general circulation models coupled with the A2 emission scenario: IPSL-CM4 and MIROC3.2. To assess the impact of climate change on environmental flows, a method based conceptually on the "range of variability" approach was used. The results indicate that the environmental flow regime in the Narew basin is subject to climate change risk, whose magnitude and spatial variability varies with climate model and hydrological modeling scale. Most of the analyzed sites experienced moderate impacts for the Generic Environmental Flow Indicator (GEFI), the Floodplain Inundation Indicator, and the River Habitat Availability Indicator. The consistency between SWAT and WaterGAP for GEFI was medium: in 55 to 66% of analyzed sites, the models suggested the same level of impact. Hence, we suggest that state-of-the-art, high-resolution, global- or continental-scale models, such as WaterGAP, could be useful tools for water management decision-makers and wetland conservation practitioners, whereas models such as SWAT should serve as a complementary tool for more specific, smaller-scale, local assessments. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

The thermal environment of the human being on the global scale

PubMed Central

Jendritzky, Gerd; Tinz, Birger

2009-01-01

Background The close relationship between human health, performance, well-being and the thermal environment is obvious. Nevertheless, most studies of climate and climate change impacts show amazing shortcomings in the assessment of the environment. Populations living in different climates have different susceptibilities, due to socio-economic reasons, and different customary behavioural adaptations. The global distribution of risks of hazardous thermal exposure has not been analysed before. Objective To produce maps of the baseline and future bioclimate that allows a direct comparison of the differences in the vulnerability of populations to thermal stress across the world. Design The required climatological data fields are obtained from climate simulations with the global General Circulation Model ECHAM4 in T106-resolution. For the thermo-physiologically relevant assessment of these climate data a complete heat budget model of the human being, the ‘Perceived Temperature’ procedure has been applied which already comprises adaptation by clothing to a certain degree. Short-term physiological acclimatisation is considered via Health Related Assessment of the Thermal Environment. Results The global maps 1971–1980 (control run, assumed as baseline climate) show a pattern of thermal stress intensities as frequencies of heat. The heat load for people living in warm–humid climates is the highest. Climate change will lead to clear differences in health-related thermal stress between baseline climate and the future bioclimate 2041–2050 based on the ‘business-as-usual’ greenhouse gas scenario IS92a. The majority of the world's population will be faced with more frequent and more intense heat strain in spite of an assumed level of acclimatisation. Further adaptation measures are crucial in order to reduce the vulnerability of the populations. Conclusions This bioclimatology analysis provides a tool for various questions in climate and climate change impact research. Considerations of regional or local scale require climate simulations with higher resolution. As adaptation is the key term in understanding the role of climate/climate change for human health, performance and well-being, further research in this field is crucial. PMID:20052427

Native plant restoration combats environmental change: development of carbon and nitrogen sequestration capacity using small cordgrass in European salt marshes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Restoration of salt marshes is critical in the context of climate change and eutrophication of coastal waters, because their vegetation and sediments may act as carbon and nitrogen sinks. Our primary objectives were to quantify carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) stocks and sequestration rates in restored m...

THE IMPACT OF CHANGING SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE ON SCIENCE EDUCATION IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE 1850.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DEL GIORNO, BETTE JOYCE

ANALYZED WAS THE IMPACT OF CHANGING SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE ON SCIENCE EDUCATION IN THE UNITED STATES FROM 1850 THROUGH 1954. THE OBJECTIVES WERE TO IDENTIFY (1) MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS IN SCIENCE, (2) IMPORTANT EVENTS IN EDUCATION, (3) THE PHILOSOPHICAL AND PSYCHOLOGICAL CLIMATE, (4) THE SCIENCE CURRICULUM AND SUBJECT MATTER, AND (5) THE APPROACH TO…

School Leaders Facing Real Change: Shifting Geography, Uncertain Paths

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Louis, Karen Seashore

2003-01-01

A central problem for school leadership in the United States is to create settings in which success for students motivates teachers. Meeting this objective is becoming more difficult as teachers, except the most brilliant, struggle to cope with the diversity of students in a changing socio-economic climate and a context in which there is a…

CO2 and N2O emissions in a soil chronosequence at a glacier retreat zone in Maritime Antarctica

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Polar regions represents a large carbon (C) sequestration reservoir in the world. Studies of alterations in C cycle are extremely important to identify changes due to climate change, especially among polar environments. The objectives of this study were to examine (i) patterns of soil CO2-C emission...

Predicted soil management and climate change effects on SOC in South Carolina

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Extensive use of inversion tillage has contributed to the loss of soil organic carbon (SOC) and degraded soil health in the southeast U.S.A. Our objective was to predict changes in SOC in a Norfolk loamy sand in Florence, SC under several crop rotations (corn (Zea mays L.)-cotton (Gossypium ssp.), C...

Weather anomalies affect Climate Change microblogging intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molodtsova, T.; Kirilenko, A.

2012-12-01

There is a huge gap between the scientific consensus and public understanding of climate change. Climate change has become a political issue and a "hot" topic in mass media that only adds the complexity to forming the public opinion. Scientists operate in scientific terms, not necessarily understandable by general public, while it is common for people to perceive the latest weather anomaly as an evidence of climate change. In 1998 Hansen et al. introduced a concept of an objectively measured subjective climate change indicator, which can relate public feeling that the climate is changing to the observed meteorological parameters. We tested this concept in a simple example of a temperature-based index, which we related to microblogging activity. Microblogging is a new form of communication in which the users describe their current status in short Internet messages. Twitter (http://twitter.com), is currently the most popular microblogging platform. There are multiple reasons, why this data is particularly valuable to the researches interested in social dynamics: microblogging is widely used to publicize one's opinion with the public; has broad, diverse audience, represented by users from many countries speaking different languages; finally, Twitter contains an enormous number of data, e.g., there were 1,284,579 messages related to climate change from 585,168 users in the January-May data collection. We collected the textual data entries, containing words "climate change" or "global warming" from the 1st of January, 2012. The data was retrieved from the Internet every 20 minutes using a specially developed Python code. Using geolocational information, blog entries originating from the New York urbanized area were selected. These entries, used as a source of public opinion on climate change, were related to the surface temperature, obtained from La Guardia airport meteorological station. We defined the "significant change" in the temperature index as deviation of the daily temperature from its 30-year mean exceeding one standard deviation of the mean daily temperatures collected for the same date throughout 1971-2000. In the same way, the days with "significant change" in the number of tweets on climate change were defined. Pearson correlation between the anomalies in blogging intensity and temperature index was 0.28 (significance 0.001, N=174); Spearman's ρ = 0.27 (significance 0.001, N=174). At the same time, the number of tweets originating from the entire USA, while following closely the New York frequency numbers (Pearson correlation 0.69), did not demonstrate a significant correlation with the New York area weather: Pearson correlation was 0.14 (significance 0.075); Spearman's ρ = 0.14 (significance 0.077).The preliminary analysis has confirmed that the weather anomalies experienced at a certain location is perceived by general public as proxy of climate change and is immediately reflected in the intensity of microblogging discussing climate change.

A healthy turn in urban climate change policies; European city workshop proposes health indicators as policy integrators.

PubMed

Keune, Hans; Ludlow, David; van den Hazel, Peter; Randall, Scott; Bartonova, Alena

2012-06-28

The EU FP6 HENVINET project reviewed the potential relevance of a focus on climate change related health effects for climate change policies at the city region level. This was undertaken by means of a workshop with both scientists, city representatives from several EU-countries, representatives of EU city networks and EU-experts. In this paper we introduce some important health related climate change issues, and discuss the current city policies of the participating cities. The workshop used a backcasting format to analyse the future relevance of a health perspective, and the main benefits and challenges this would bring to urban policy making. It was concluded that health issues have an important function as indicators of success for urban climate change policies, given the extent to which climate change policies contribute to public health and as such to quality of life. Simultaneously the health perspective may function as a policy integrator in that it can combine several related policy objectives, such as environmental policies, health policies, urban planning and economic development policies, in one framework for action. Furthermore, the participants to the workshop considered public health to be of strategic importance in organizing public support for climate change policies. One important conclusion of the workshop was the view that the connection of science and policy at the city level is inadequate, and that the integration of scientific knowledge on climate change related health effects and local policy practice is in need of more attention. In conclusion, the workshop was viewed as a constructive advance in the process of integration which hopefully will lead to ongoing cooperation. The workshop had the ambition to bring together a diversity of actor perspectives for exchange of knowledge and experiences, and joint understanding as a basis for future cooperation. Next to the complementarities in experience and knowledge, the mutual critical reflection was a bonus, as ideas had the opportunity to be scrutinized by others, leading to more robustness and common ground. The structured backcasting approach was helpful in integrating all of this with one common focus, embracing diversity and complexity, and stimulating reflection and new ideas.

A healthy turn in urban climate change policies; European city workshop proposes health indicators as policy integrators

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The EU FP6 HENVINET project reviewed the potential relevance of a focus on climate change related health effects for climate change policies at the city region level. This was undertaken by means of a workshop with both scientists, city representatives from several EU-countries, representatives of EU city networks and EU-experts. In this paper we introduce some important health related climate change issues, and discuss the current city policies of the participating cities. Methods The workshop used a backcasting format to analyse the future relevance of a health perspective, and the main benefits and challenges this would bring to urban policy making. Results It was concluded that health issues have an important function as indicators of success for urban climate change policies, given the extent to which climate change policies contribute to public health and as such to quality of life. Simultaneously the health perspective may function as a policy integrator in that it can combine several related policy objectives, such as environmental policies, health policies, urban planning and economic development policies, in one framework for action. Furthermore, the participants to the workshop considered public health to be of strategic importance in organizing public support for climate change policies. One important conclusion of the workshop was the view that the connection of science and policy at the city level is inadequate, and that the integration of scientific knowledge on climate change related health effects and local policy practice is in need of more attention. In conclusion, the workshop was viewed as a constructive advance in the process of integration which hopefully will lead to ongoing cooperation. Conclusions The workshop had the ambition to bring together a diversity of actor perspectives for exchange of knowledge and experiences, and joint understanding as a basis for future cooperation. Next to the complementarities in experience and knowledge, the mutual critical reflection was a bonus, as ideas had the opportunity to be scrutinized by others, leading to more robustness and common ground. The structured backcasting approach was helpful in integrating all of this with one common focus, embracing diversity and complexity, and stimulating reflection and new ideas. PMID:22759496

Soil mapping and processes models to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Pereira, Paulo; Brevik, Eric; Cerda, Artemi; Jordan, Antonio

2017-04-01

As agreed in Paris in December 2015, global average temperature is to be limited to "well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels" and efforts will be made to "limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in all sectors becomes critical and appropriate sustainable land management practices need to be taken (Pereira et al., 2017). Mitigation strategies focus on reducing the rate and magnitude of climate change by reducing its causes. Complementary to mitigation, adaptation strategies aim to minimise impacts and maximize the benefits of new opportunities. The adoption of both practices will require developing system models to integrate and extrapolate anticipated climate changes such as global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). Furthermore, integrating climate models driven by socio-economic scenarios in soil process models has allowed the investigation of potential changes and threats in soil characteristics and functions in future climate scenarios. One of the options with largest potential for climate change mitigation is sequestering carbon in soils. Therefore, the development of new methods and the use of existing tools for soil carbon monitoring and accounting have therefore become critical in a global change context. For example, soil C maps can help identify potential areas where management practices that promote C sequestration will be productive and guide the formulation of policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite extensive efforts to compile soil information and map soil C, many uncertainties remain in the determination of soil C stocks, and the reliability of these estimates depends upon the quality and resolution of the spatial datasets used for its calculation. Thus, better estimates of soil C pools and dynamics are needed to advance understanding of the C balance and the potential of soils for climate change mitigation. Here, we discuss the most recent advances on the application of soil mapping and modeling to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies; and These strategies are a key component of the implementation of sustainable land management policies need to be integrated are critical to. The objective of this work is to present a review about the advantages of soil mapping and process modeling for sustainable land management. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Pereira, P., Brevic, E., Cerda, A., Jordan, A. (2017) Soil mapping and processes models for sustainable land management applied to modern challenges. In: Pereira, P., Brevik, E., Munoz-Rojas, M., Miller, B. (Eds.) Soil mapping and process modelling for sustainable land use management (Elsevier Publishing House) ISBN: 9780128052006

Climate change risk analysis framework (CCRAF) a probabilistic tool for analyzing climate change uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Legget, J.; Pepper, W.; Sankovski, A.; Smith, J.; Tol, R.; Wigley, T.

2003-04-01

Potential risks of human-induced climate change are subject to a three-fold uncertainty associated with: the extent of future anthropogenic and natural GHG emissions; global and regional climatic responses to emissions; and impacts of climatic changes on economies and the biosphere. Long-term analyses are also subject to uncertainty regarding how humans will respond to actual or perceived changes, through adaptation or mitigation efforts. Explicitly addressing these uncertainties is a high priority in the scientific and policy communities Probabilistic modeling is gaining momentum as a technique to quantify uncertainties explicitly and use decision analysis techniques that take advantage of improved risk information. The Climate Change Risk Assessment Framework (CCRAF) presented here a new integrative tool that combines the probabilistic approaches developed in population, energy and economic sciences with empirical data and probabilistic results of climate and impact models. The main CCRAF objective is to assess global climate change as a risk management challenge and to provide insights regarding robust policies that address the risks, by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions and by adapting to climate change consequences. The CCRAF endogenously simulates to 2100 or beyond annual region-specific changes in population; GDP; primary (by fuel) and final energy (by type) use; a wide set of associated GHG emissions; GHG concentrations; global temperature change and sea level rise; economic, health, and biospheric impacts; costs of mitigation and adaptation measures and residual costs or benefits of climate change. Atmospheric and climate components of CCRAF are formulated based on the latest version of Wigley's and Raper's MAGICC model and impacts are simulated based on a modified version of Tol's FUND model. The CCRAF is based on series of log-linear equations with deterministic and random components and is implemented using a Monte-Carlo method with up to 5000 variants per set of fixed input parameters. The shape and coefficients of CCRAF equations are derived from regression analyses of historic data and expert assessments. There are two types of random components in CCRAF - one reflects a year-to-year fluctuations around the expected value of a given variable (e.g., standard error of the annual GDP growth) and another is fixed within each CCRAF variant and represents some essential constants within a "world" represented by that variant (e.g., the value of climate sensitivity). Both types of random components are drawn from pre-defined probability distributions functions developed based on historic data or expert assessments. Preliminary CCRAF results emphasize the relative importance of uncertainties associated with the conversion of GHG and particulate emissions into radiative forcing and quantifying climate change effects at the regional level. A separates analysis involves an "adaptive decision-making", which optimizes the expected future policy effects given the estimated probabilistic uncertainties. As uncertainty for some variables evolve over the time steps, the decisions also adapt. This modeling approach is feasible only with explicit modeling of uncertainties.

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) Phase 2: Scientific objectives and experimental design

USGS Publications Warehouse

Haywood, Alan M.; Dowsett, Harry J.; Dolan, Aisling M.; Rowley, David; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Otto-Bliesner, Bette; Chandler, Mark A.; Hunter, Stephen J.; Lunt, Daniel J.; Pound, Matthew; Salzmann, Ulrich

2016-01-01

Finally we have designed a suite of prioritized experiments that tackle issues surrounding the basic understanding of the Pliocene and its relevance in the context of future climate change in a discrete way.

Climate change impact on groundwater levels in the Guarani Aquifer outcrop zone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melo, D. D.; Wendland, E.

2013-12-01

The unsustainable use of groundwater in many countries might cause water availability restrictions in the future. Such issue is likely to worsen due to predicted climate changes for the incoming decades. As numerous studies suggest, aquifers recharge rates will be affected as a result of climate change. The Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) is one of the most important transboundary aquifer in the world, providing drinkable water for millions of people in four South American countries (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay). Considering the GAS relevance and how its recharge rates might be altered by climatic conditions anomalies, the objective of this work is to assess possible climate changes impacts on groundwater levels in this aquifer outcrop zone. Global Climate Models' (GCM) outputs were used as inputs in a transient flux groundwater model created using the software SPA (Simulation of Process in Aquifers), enabling groundwater table fluctuation to be evaluated under distinct climatic scenarios. Six monitoring wells, located in a representative basin (Ribeirão da Onça basin) inside a GAS outcrop zone (ROB), provided water table measurements between 2004 and 2011 to calibrate the groundwater model. Using observed climatic data, a water budget method was applied to estimate recharge in different types of land uses. Statistically downscaled future climate scenarios were used as inputs for that same recharge model, which provided data for running SPA under those scenarios. The results show that most of the GCMs used here predict temperature arises over 275,15 K and major monthly rainfall mean changes to take place in the dry season. During wet seasons, those means might experience around 50% decrease. The transient model results indicate that water table variations, derived from around 70% of the climate scenarios, would vary below those measured between 2004 and 2011. Among the thirteen GCMs considered in this work, only four of them predicted more extreme climate scenarios. In some regions of the study area and under these extreme conditions, groundwater surface would decline more than 10 m. Although more optimistic scenarios resulted in an increase of groundwater levels in more than half of ROB, these would cause up to 5 m water table decline. The results reinforce the need for a permanent hydrogeological monitoring, mainly in the GAS recharge areas, along with the development of other climate change impacts assessment works using different downscaling and recharge estimates methods.

Mulit Criteria - Application on Climate Change Adaptation and Biofuel Cultivation on Contaminated Land

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson-Sköld, Yvonne; Suer, Pascal; Bergman, Ramona; Helgesson, Helena

2010-05-01

A decision support tool/method has been developed to systematically include sustainability at an early stage in planning issues. Sustainability was subdivided into human health, environmental impacts, resources, and social and economic impacts. Health, environmental and resources impacts were based on the Swedish environmental objectives, life cycle assessment (LCA) impact categories, and contaminated soil guidelines. The resulting impact indicators were climate change - global warming potential, large scale and local air quality, water and soil quality, landscape, energy, materials, wellbeing/welfare, direct financial costs, social economic aspects, and flexi-bility. The method offers an iterative discussion framework that is systematic, condensed and yet a simplistic way of describing consequences of climate change and related adaptation measures including economic, social and environmental aspects. Application of the tool to biofuel cultivation on contaminated soil indicated that traditional soil remediation may have higher social and economical benefits but be less suitable from a health, environment, and resources perspective. The tool has further been applied in municipalities on climate change impacts and adaptation measures. Re-sults from the application in tree municipalities will be presented: Gothenburg City, Lidköping and Arvika. In Gothenburg and Lidköping the major impact of climate change is increase in sea water level (North Sea and Lake Vänern respectively) combined with extreme weather conditions. According to regional climate change scenarios Arvika is located in one of the worst affected areas in Sweden with respect to increase of intensive rainfall and extreme flows. The adaptation measures investigated at the three locations include doing nothing, different constructions and planning. The results are based on previous risk identification investigations, flood and land slide maps and interviews with civil servants in the three municipalities.

Dangerous news: media decision making about climate change risk.

PubMed

Smith, Joe

2005-12-01

This article explores the role of broadcast news media decision makers in shaping public understanding and debate of climate change risks. It locates the media within a "tangled web" of communication and debate between sources, media, and publics. The article draws on new qualitative research in the British context. The main body of it focuses on media source strategies, on climate change storytelling in news, and the "myth of detachment" sustained by many news decision makers. The empirical evidence, gathered between 1997 and 2004, is derived primarily from recordings and notes drawn from a series of seminars that has brought together equal numbers of BBC news and television decision makers and environment/development specialists. The seminars have created a rare space for extended dialogue between media and specialist perspectives on the communication of complex climate change science and policy. While the article acknowledges the distinctive nature of the BBC as a public sector broadcaster, the evidence confirms and extends current understanding of the career of climate change within the media more broadly. The working group discussions have explored issues arising out of how stories are sourced and, in the context of competitive and time-pressured newsrooms, shaped and presented in short news pieces. Particularly significant is the disjuncture between ways of talking about uncertainty within science and policy discourse and media constructions of objectivity, truth, and balance. The article concludes with a summary of developments in media culture, technology, and practice that are creating opportunities for enhanced public understanding and debate of climate change risks. It also indicates the need for science and policy communities to be more active critics and sources of news.

Quantifying Hydro-biogeochemical Model Sensitivity in Assessment of Climate Change Effect on Hyporheic Zone Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, X.; Chen, X.; Dai, H.; Hammond, G. E.; Song, H. S.; Stegen, J.

2016-12-01

The hyporheic zone is an active region for biogeochemical processes such as carbon and nitrogen cycling, where the groundwater and surface water mix and interact with each other with distinct biogeochemical and thermal properties. The biogeochemical dynamics within the hyporheic zone are driven by both river water and groundwater hydraulic dynamics, which are directly affected by climate change scenarios. Besides that, the hydraulic and thermal properties of local sediments and microbial and chemical processes also play important roles in biogeochemical dynamics. Thus for a comprehensive understanding of the biogeochemical processes in the hyporheic zone, a coupled thermo-hydro-biogeochemical model is needed. As multiple uncertainty sources are involved in the integrated model, it is important to identify its key modules/parameters through sensitivity analysis. In this study, we develop a 2D cross-section model in the hyporheic zone at the DOE Hanford site adjacent to Columbia River and use this model to quantify module and parametric sensitivity on assessment of climate change. To achieve this purpose, We 1) develop a facies-based groundwater flow and heat transfer model that incorporates facies geometry and heterogeneity characterized from a field data set, 2) derive multiple reaction networks/pathways from batch experiments with in-situ samples and integrate temperate dependent reactive transport modules to the flow model, 3) assign multiple climate change scenarios to the coupled model by analyzing historical river stage data, 4) apply a variance-based global sensitivity analysis to quantify scenario/module/parameter uncertainty in hierarchy level. The objectives of the research include: 1) identifing the key control factors of the coupled thermo-hydro-biogeochemical model in the assessment of climate change, and 2) quantify the carbon consumption in different climate change scenarios in the hyporheic zone.

Changing climate, challenging choices: identifying and evaluating climate change adaptation options for protected areas management in Ontario, Canada.

PubMed

Lemieux, Christopher J; Scott, Daniel J

2011-10-01

Climate change will pose increasingly significant challenges to managers of parks and other forms of protected areas around the world. Over the past two decades, numerous scientific publications have identified potential adaptations, but their suitability from legal, policy, financial, internal capacity, and other management perspectives has not been evaluated for any protected area agency or organization. In this study, a panel of protected area experts applied a Policy Delphi methodology to identify and evaluate climate change adaptation options across the primary management areas of a protected area agency in Canada. The panel identified and evaluated one hundred and sixty five (165) adaptation options for their perceived desirability and feasibility. While the results revealed a high level of agreement with respect to the desirability of adaptation options and a moderate level of capacity pertaining to policy formulation and management direction, a perception of low capacity for implementation in most other program areas was identified. A separate panel of senior park agency decision-makers used a multiple criterion decision-facilitation matrix to further evaluate the institutional feasibility of the 56 most desirable adaptation options identified by the initial expert panel and to prioritize them for consideration in a climate change action plan. Critically, only two of the 56 adaptation options evaluated by senior decision-makers were deemed definitely implementable, due largely to fiscal and internal capacity limitations. These challenges are common to protected area agencies in developed countries and pervade those in developing countries, revealing that limited adaptive capacity represents a substantive barrier to biodiversity conservation and other protected area management objectives in an era of rapid climate change.

Managing the Health Effects of Temperature in Response to Climate Change: Challenges Ahead

PubMed Central

Barnett, Adrian G.; Xu, Zhiwei; Chu, Cordia; Wang, Xiaoming; Turner, Lyle R.; Tong, Shilu

2013-01-01

Background: Although many studies have shown that high temperatures are associated with an increased risk of mortality and morbidity, there has been little research on managing the process of planned adaptation to alleviate the health effects of heat events and climate change. In particular, economic evaluation of public health adaptation strategies has been largely absent from both the scientific literature and public policy discussion. Objectives: We examined how public health organizations should implement adaptation strategies and, second, how to improve the evidence base required to make an economic case for policies that will protect the public’s health from heat events and climate change. Discussion: Public health adaptation strategies to cope with heat events and climate change fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health risks. Strategies require a range of actions, including timely public health and medical advice, improvements to housing and urban planning, early warning systems, and assurance that health care and social systems are ready to act. Some of these actions are costly, and given scarce financial resources the implementation should be based on the cost-effectiveness analysis. Therefore, research is required not only on the temperature-related health costs, but also on the costs and benefits of adaptation options. The scientific community must ensure that the health co-benefits of climate change policies are recognized, understood, and quantified. Conclusions: The integration of climate change adaptation into current public health practice is needed to ensure the adaptation strategies increase future resilience. The economic evaluation of temperature-related health costs and public health adaptation strategies are particularly important for policy decisions. PMID:23407064

Impact on Hydrological Flows and Water Quality Using the Swat Model - the Case of Piracicaba Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Queiroz, M. R.; Rocha, H.

2013-05-01

Understanding the functionality of water cycle in Brazilian ecosystems is one of the factors that generate the power to formulate smart strategies for biodiversity conservation and sustainable productivity in agro-ecosystems, promoting the generation of information that support the demands of occupation. Good policy formulation of land use depends on the expected climate change in the coming decades, as well as, surface cover and management must adapt to the socio-economic regional vocations so as to cause minimal impact. The changes in the land use influence the quantity and quality of water, contributing to floods and environmental changes. Additionally, climate change and variability, either natural or manmade cause, directly affect the human life. One of the main effects of weather occurs in the runoff generated in the basins, which in turn affects the water supply and demand in various sectors such as supply, irrigation and energy. The results Will show the impacts of climate variability on water resources (quantity and quality) to the Piracicaba watershed, through numerical modeling SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), developed with the objective to analyze the impacts of changes in land use on runoff and underground production of sediment and water quality. The results of this proposal will provide information to answer better understanding of the ecological functionality and freshwater ecosystems in Brazil, and particularly in the study region in the state of São Paulo, increase the predictability of the Earth's climate system, from knowledge of the response of terrestrial biota to different forms of climate variability and increased knowledge of alternative socio-economic adaptation of terrestrial biota and climate change.

Climate Change and Public Health Surveillance: Toward a Comprehensive Strategy

PubMed Central

Moulton, Anthony Drummond; Schramm, Paul John

2017-01-01

Context Climate change poses a host of serious threats to human health that robust public health surveillance systems can help address. It is unknown, however, whether existing surveillance systems in the United States have adequate capacity to serve that role, nor what actions may be needed to develop adequate capacity. Objective Our goals were to review efforts to assess and strengthen the capacity of public health surveillance systems to support health-related adaptation to climate change in the United States and to determine whether additional efforts are warranted. Methods Building on frameworks issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, we specified 4 core components of public health surveillance capacity relevant to climate change health threats. Using standard methods, we next identified and analyzed multiple assessments of the existing, relevant capacity of public health surveillance systems as well as attempts to improve that capacity. We also received information from selected national public health associations. Findings Multiple federal, state, and local public health agencies, professional associations, and researchers have made valuable, initial efforts to assess and strengthen surveillance capacity. These efforts, however, have been made by entities working independently and without the benefit of a shared conceptual framework or strategy. Their principal focus has been on identifying suitable indicators and data sources largely to the exclusion of other core components of surveillance capacity. Conclusions A more comprehensive and strategic approach is needed to build the public health surveillance capacity required to protect the health of Americans in a world of rapidly evolving climate change. Public health practitioners and policy makers at all levels can use the findings and issues reviewed in this article as they lead design and execution of a coordinated, multisector strategic plan to create and sustain that capacity. PMID:28169865

Public perceptions about climate change mitigation in British Columbia's forest sector

PubMed Central

Hagerman, Shannon; Kozak, Robert; Hoberg, George

2018-01-01

The role of forest management in mitigating climate change is a central concern for the Canadian province of British Columbia. The successful implementation of forest management activities to achieve climate change mitigation in British Columbia will be strongly influenced by public support or opposition. While we now have increasingly clear ideas of the management opportunities associated with forest mitigation and some insight into public support for climate change mitigation in the context of sustainable forest management, very little is known with respect to the levels and basis of public support for potential forest management strategies to mitigate climate change. This paper, by describing the results of a web-based survey, documents levels of public support for the implementation of eight forest carbon mitigation strategies in British Columbia’s forest sector, and examines and quantifies the influence of the factors that shape this support. Overall, respondents ascribed a high level of importance to forest carbon mitigation and supported all of the eight proposed strategies, indicating that the British Columbia public is inclined to consider alternative practices in managing forests and wood products to mitigate climate change. That said, we found differences in levels of support for the mitigation strategies. In general, we found greater levels of support for a rehabilitation strategy (e.g. reforestation of unproductive forest land), and to a lesser extent for conservation strategies (e.g. old growth conservation, reduced harvest) over enhanced forest management strategies (e.g. improved harvesting and silvicultural techniques). We also highlighted multiple variables within the British Columbia population that appear to play a role in predicting levels of support for conservation and/or enhanced forest management strategies, including environmental values, risk perception, trust in groups of actors, prioritized objectives of forest management and socio-demographic factors. PMID:29684041